textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers pushing onshore along the coast will continue tonight and will be capable of spreading farther inland on Monday.

- Rain chances increase into Tuesday, with a few storms possible, as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions are then forecast mid to late week behind the front.

- Boating conditions will deteriorate Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Tonight-Monday...A cold front moving through the southeast U.S. will eventually stall across to just north of north FL into Monday. A moderate low level onshore flow will continue across east central FL and combine with sufficient moisture at or below 850mb to produce isolated to scattered over the coastal waters. This activity will continue to push onshore along the coast tonight through early Monday and then spread inland through Monday afternoon. Rain chances still remain on the lower end, around 20-30 percent. Overnight lows will be mild in the 60s, with highs still near to above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday...Low pressure at the surface will develop near the northern Gulf coast along the stalled front Monday night and lift NE as a trough aloft shifts from the central to eastern United States. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms will move east- northeast across the area and offshore ahead of the front during the daytime Tuesday. Increasing W/SW winds around 30-45 knots from 925- 500mb may allow any storms that develop across areas mainly north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast to produce strong wind gusts, up to 40-55 mph. Instability will be the overall limiting factor with stronger storm potential, as SBCAPE looks to remain below 500 J/kg. Rain chances continue to range from around 60-70% near to NW of I-4 and 40-50% to the south. Into Tuesday night any convection should shift offshore as front pushes through central FL.

Breezy and warm conditions forecast Tuesday, with highs several degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s for most locations. Temperatures will fall as low as the 50s, mainly north of Orlando by late Tuesday night, with lows in the 60s forecast near to south of Orlando.

Wednesday-Sunday...High pressure will gradually build in behind the front to the north of Florida. Northerly flow Wednesday through Thursday will continue to transport drier/cooler air into central Florida, with rain chances remaining out of the forecast and temperatures near to slightly below normal. Highs will be in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s most locations. However, temps may fall as low as the upper 40s northwest of I-4 Wednesday night. Dry conditions prevail into Friday as winds veer onshore and allow temps to gradually rise into late week. Highs will range from the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows Friday night in the low to mid 60s.

There remains some forecast uncertainty into next weekend as another front approaches Florida. The GFS stalls this boundary across north FL, while the ECMWF moves the boundary through into Saturday night. Either way rain chances will return to the forecast. Currently have PoPs rising to 30-50% from Brevard/Osceola counties northward on Saturday, and 20% across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast, with rain chances then ranging from 30-40% areawide on Sunday. Temperatures will continue a warming trend into Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 80s for much of the region, and if front is able to push through during the weekend as the ECMWF suggests, then highs will fall back to more normal values in the 70s on Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Tonight-Monday...Seas at Buoy 41009 have reached up to 5.6 feet at times today, which indicates there may be a little more coverage of the 6 foot seas over the offshore waters. The NBM/WNAWAVE10 have a better handle on this than the NWPS, with the guidance suggesting that seas up to 6 feet may linger offshore through early this evening. Have therefore added small craft exercise caution to the entire offshore waters with the latest update. Also, increased rain chances based on latest radar trends and added a slight chance for thunderstorms across the offshore waters of the Treasure Coast where instability is a little higher and where we have already seen some lightning strikes with this activity.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue across the waters tonight into Monday as east-northeast winds up to 10-15 knots continue. Instability decreases over the gulf stream waters tonight, so lightning potential looks much lower. Seas will range from 3-5 feet overnight tonight through Monday.

Tuesday-Friday...Low pressure will lift northeast across the southeast U.S. dragging a cold front through the waters Tuesday night. Boating conditions will deteriorate into Monday night as onshore flow strengthens to 15-20 knots offshore. Winds then veer to the S/SW through Tuesday and increase up to 15-25 knots, with seas building to 4-6 feet as front approaches. Scattered showers and isolated storms ahead of the front will move through the area Tuesday, with a few storms having the potential to produce strong wind gusts and lightning strikes as they shift quickly offshore.

W/NW winds actually decrease some behind the front, but will still remain up to 15-20 knots offshore Tuesday night. High pressure will gradually build in behind the front with drier conditions forecast and winds decreasing below 15 knots through mid to late week. Winds will be out of the north Wednesday-Thursday and then become onshore by Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1223 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

A few showers will remain possible through this afternoon along the coast from MLB southward. Have included VCSH for MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA, while areas to the north and inland are expected to remain dry. Additional showers will be possible along the coast Monday from late morning into the afternoon. Brief MVFR reductions have been observed when the occasional shower reaches a terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing. Onshore flow continues, with winds 10 kts or less each afternoon and light winds overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 77 66 80 / 20 20 20 60 MCO 65 80 67 82 / 10 20 10 60 MLB 66 78 68 82 / 20 30 20 50 VRB 66 79 68 84 / 20 30 20 50 LEE 62 79 65 79 / 10 20 20 70 SFB 64 79 67 81 / 10 20 10 60 ORL 64 79 67 81 / 10 20 10 60 FPR 66 79 67 84 / 20 30 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.