textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 215 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- A High Risk of rip currents will be present at area beaches through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop each day this weekend, mainly along the inland moving east coast sea breeze. There is a low (20% or less) chance of lightning storms.

- Temperatures will remain above normal with near record highs in the mid to upper 80s for interior sites this weekend and well into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Current-Tonight...KMLB 88D active early this morning with WDLY SCT shower activity streaming onto the Space/Treasure coasts, some of this activity will push into the interior before dissipating. A brief downpour may occur, but any rainfall amounts will be light. Again, may see some patchy (dense) fog at times early this morning, esp north of I-4. Will also monitor for some low stratus clouds across the I-4 corridor. High pressure continues across the western Atlc with associated ridge axis north of ECFL. This will continue to provide an ESE/SE flow thru the period with sustained winds climbing to 10-15 mph during the day and higher gusts, esp along the coast. A diffuse ECSB will push inland this afternoon, with additional convection (20-30pct) developing. An ISOLD lightning storm will be possible, with greatest chances over the interior and south of Orlando. The lightning storm threat remains below 20pct.

Highs will reach the L80s along the coast to M-U80s into the interior. Overnight lows remain mild and in the 60s. Some areas along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts and adjacent barrier islands may realize values closer to 70F. Onshore flow will become light again this evening, but may stay a bit elevated along the coast.

A continued threat exists at ALL central FL beaches for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents and occasional rough surf, in part, due to the persistent ENE long period swell. It is strongly discouraged to enter the chilly surf through this weekend! Sun-Fri...Surface high pressure ridging remains near or across the central FL peninsula for much of this period. Both the GFS/ECMWF are coming in better line with bringing a cold front and higher precip chances thru the area on Thu/Thu night. High pressure to the north will follow the front across the region on Fri. Leading up to this, ESE surface winds may veer a bit more SE/S at times and decrease in speed as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit. This will likely promote a better chance for patchy (dense) fog development across the coverage warning area Sun/Mon/Tue mornings. Periodic onshore-moving showers along the coast and an ISOLD aftn/evening lightning storm cannot be ruled out across the interior, though PWATs will be modest through Wed. A 20-40pct chance for convection will exist on Sun, then a 20pct or less chance of precip will exist thru Wed. If models remain consistent for Thu, SCT (40-50pct) showers and ISOLD (aftn/early eve) lightning storms will be possible. A 20-30pct chance for precip remains in the forecast for now on Fri, but it may depend on model consistency and whether a clean frontal passage (scouring out of moisture) occurs from the day before.

Well above normal temperatures continue thru this period. Highs each day in the L80s at the immediate coast and M-U80s into the interior, with a 90F reading or two within reach. These temperatures will flirt with records which run in the U80s to around 90F each of these days across the interior. Overnight lows will remain mild and continue generally in the 60s areawide.

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Today-Wed...SCT showers early in the period south of the Cape moving onshore. Persistence continues with high pressure across the western Atlc and a trailing ridge axis initially north of the local Atlc waters. This ridge axis will settle southward closer to central FL Sun into early next week. Winds will be predominately ESE-SSE at 10-15 kts with some higher gusts. Primary contribution to wave height continues to be a 3-4 ft east well with a bit of a wind chop added. Combined seas 3-5 ft today thru Mon and 3-4 ft Tue-Wed. ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower chances exists for much of this period and an ISOLD lightning storm threat (less than 20pct) cannot be ruled out this weekend. The next front is poised to move across the local waters Thu/Thu night with an increase in precip chances and deteriorating marine conds.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Strato-cu producing high-MVFR CIGs have lifted/thinned inland, but continue to impact coastal terminals from KTIX-KSUA. Gusts ESE 20-25 kts at the coastal terminals and to around 20 kts at inland terminals continue through around 22Z behind a diffuse east coast sea breeze. ISO-SCT SHRA and ISO TSRA have developed across inland areas and over parts of the Atlantic waters, and many TAFs had VCSH adjusted or added, but greatest impacts from TSRA later this evening still forecast to remain well west of most ECFL terminals. Through 04Z there is a low chance (around 20%) for an ISO TSRA to push back towards KLEE. Can't completely rule out a cell or two reaching back towards KMCO/KISM, but direct impacts are not expected. Tonight, environment is slightly more favorable for fog/stratus development along and north of I-4 than previous nights, but confidence remains lower than normal. Introduced a non-committal SCT015 and BCFG to KMCO and other northern terminals from around 09Z-15Z. Winds become more SE and a little lighter Sunday, shifting the sea breeze collision over the the central/eastern side of the peninsula, increasing chances for TSRA impacts at KMCO/northern terminals after 22Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 84 63 83 / 10 30 30 20 MCO 66 86 66 88 / 20 30 30 20 MLB 66 83 65 83 / 20 20 30 20 VRB 66 83 64 83 / 20 20 20 10 LEE 65 86 65 86 / 20 30 20 20 SFB 65 87 65 87 / 10 30 30 20 ORL 66 86 67 87 / 20 30 30 20 FPR 64 83 63 83 / 20 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.