textproduct: Melbourne

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure over the Florida peninsula will shift eastward out across the Atlantic and weaken through today as mid-level support weakens due to a deepening mid-level trough across the central US. This trough is anticipated to gradually move eastward towards the Appalachian region today into tonight, with its associated cold front forecast to begin approaching Florida late tonight. Locally, winds are anticipated to remain light and variable, picking up slightly out of the east this afternoon. While conditions will remain dry across the peninsula today, there is a low chance for some light, isolated showers across the local Atlantic waters. Rain chances will then begin to increase slightly across northern portions of Lake and Volusia counties late tonight as the front shifts closer to east central Florida.

After a cold start to this morning with lows in the low to mid 30s and patchy frost in rural locations of northern Lake and Volusia counties, temperatures are forecast to warm and reach near-normal values once again this afternoon and tonight. Highs are forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s with lows falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight.

Sunday-Monday...The mid-level trough swings across the Florida peninsula on Sunday, with its associated cold front also moving southward across the area. Rain chances increase on Sunday out ahead of and along the front, with PoPs of 20-50% across east central Florida. The Euro and GFS have come into better agreement on rain chances, hence the slight uptick in rain chances compared to this time yesterday. The NBM continues to favor high rain chances, but some uncertainty remains so chose to not stick strictly with the NBM output and capped it at 50%. Will continue to monitor guidance and allow for increases in rain chances as needed. Looking at the overall environment out ahead of the front, local conditions continue to favor strictly shower development and no storm development. Have limited thunder chances to below mentionable chances as a result and the NBM has come into better alignment with these thoughts. The front is anticipated to shift south of east central Florida by Sunday night, with breezy conditions returning to the area. This northwesterly flow will help advect cold, dry air southward to east central Florida, with high pressure slowly building across the area into Monday. Rain chances return to near- zero on Monday, with winds gradually weakening as the high establishes itself across the southeastern US.

Cold weather concerns reenter the forecast into Sunday night behind the front as the aforementioned cold, dry air sinks southward towards east central Florida and causes below-normal temperatures. There is increasing confidence in the potential for freezing temperatures once again across portions of east central Florida and a Freeze Watch has been issued Sunday night into Monday morning for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties. Lows Sunday night into Monday morning are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s across the interior west of I-95 and portions of the Volusia and Brevard coasts. The immediate Treasure Coast area is forecast to fall into the 40s. Another concern that will need to be monitored is wind chills as winds remain breezy behind the front into Sunday night. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for a majority of east central Florida as wind chill values fall below 30 degrees. Below-normal temperatures are forecast to persist into Monday night, though lows will warm a few degrees into the low 30s to low 40s across the interior and into the 40s along the coast. Winds will not be quite as breezy Monday night, but some spots (especially rural portions of east central Florida) could near Cold Weather Advisory criteria once again. Patchy frost will also be a concern each night, particularly in rural locations.

Tuesday-Friday...High pressure across the southeastern US will slowly shift eastward through the middle of next week, helping to keep conditions mostly dry across east central Florida through at least Wednesday. This will be further ensured as a reinforcing cold front moves southward across the area early Tuesday. Rain chances are then forecast to return to the area on Thursday as the surface high lifts northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic and pushes offshore as another cold front develops and moves towards the southeastern US. The front will likely move across the area Friday, but there remains some timing discrepancies between long range solutions. There is the potential for one more night of cooler temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday, but overall, temperatures through the extended period are forecast to follow a gradual warming trend, with temperatures returning to near and even above normal values.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure over the Florida peninsula will shift eastward out across the Atlantic and weaken through today as mid-level support weakens due to a deepening mid-level trough across the central US. This trough is anticipated to gradually move eastward towards the Appalachian region today into tonight, with its associated cold front forecast to begin approaching Florida late tonight. Locally, winds are anticipated to remain light and variable, picking up slightly out of the east this afternoon. While conditions will remain dry across the peninsula today, there is a low chance for some light, isolated showers across the local Atlantic waters. Rain chances will then begin to increase slightly across northern portions of Lake and Volusia counties late tonight as the front shifts closer to east central Florida.

After a cold start to this morning with lows in the low to mid 30s and patchy frost in rural locations of northern Lake and Volusia counties, temperatures are forecast to warm and reach near-normal values once again this afternoon and tonight. Highs are forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s with lows falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight.

Sunday-Monday...The mid-level trough swings across the Florida peninsula on Sunday, with its associated cold front also moving southward across the area. Rain chances increase on Sunday out ahead of and along the front, with PoPs of 20-50% across east central Florida. The Euro and GFS have come into better agreement on rain chances, hence the slight uptick in rain chances compared to this time yesterday. The NBM continues to favor high rain chances, but some uncertainty remains so chose to not stick strictly with the NBM output and capped it at 50%. Will continue to monitor guidance and allow for increases in rain chances as needed. Looking at the overall environment out ahead of the front, local conditions continue to favor strictly shower development and no storm development. Have limited thunder chances to below mentionable chances as a result and the NBM has come into better alignment with these thoughts. The front is anticipated to shift south of east central Florida by Sunday night, with breezy conditions returning to the area. This northwesterly flow will help advect cold, dry air southward to east central Florida, with high pressure slowly building across the area into Monday. Rain chances return to near- zero on Monday, with winds gradually weakening as the high establishes itself across the southeastern US.

Cold weather concerns reenter the forecast into Sunday night behind the front as the aforementioned cold, dry air sinks southward towards east central Florida and causes below-normal temperatures. There is increasing confidence in the potential for freezing temperatures once again across portions of east central Florida and a Freeze Watch has been issued Sunday night into Monday morning for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties. Lows Sunday night into Monday morning are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s across the interior west of I-95 and portions of the Volusia and Brevard coasts. The immediate Treasure Coast area is forecast to fall into the 40s. Another concern that will need to be monitored is wind chills as winds remain breezy behind the front into Sunday night. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for a majority of east central Florida as wind chill values fall below 30 degrees. Below-normal temperatures are forecast to persist into Monday night, though lows will warm a few degrees into the low 30s to low 40s across the interior and into the 40s along the coast. Winds will not be quite as breezy Monday night, but some spots (especially rural portions of east central Florida) could near Cold Weather Advisory criteria once again. Patchy frost will also be a concern each night, particularly in rural locations.

Tuesday-Friday...High pressure across the southeastern US will slowly shift eastward through the middle of next week, helping to keep conditions mostly dry across east central Florida through at least Wednesday. This will be further ensured as a reinforcing cold front moves southward across the area early Tuesday. Rain chances are then forecast to return to the area on Thursday as the surface high lifts northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic and pushes offshore as another cold front develops and moves towards the southeastern US. The front will likely move across the area Friday, but there remains some timing discrepancies between long range solutions. There is the potential for one more night of cooler temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday, but overall, temperatures through the extended period are forecast to follow a gradual warming trend, with temperatures returning to near and even above normal values.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

High pressure situated across the local Atlantic waters will help maintain generally favorable boating conditions today into tonight. Conditions then deteriorate once more on Sunday as a cold front moves southward across the waters, with rain chances forecast to increase to 50% out ahead of the front. Northwest winds are forecast to increase 15 to 25 knots Sunday afternoon and night behind the front, resulting in seas building to 6 to 8 feet across the Gulf Stream waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. High pressure then builds across the area Monday, drifting northeastward through mid- week. Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to return, though periods of poor conditions will be possible across the offshore waters as a reinforcing front that moves through on Tuesday leads to some increasing winds and seas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 613 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR with L/V winds. Blanket of marine stratocu south of MCO to include terminals across the Space/Treasure coasts and into the interior south of ISM through Lake Okee above FL040. Weak pressure gradient continues with winds transitioning onshore along the coast in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front is forecast to move southward across east central Florida on Sunday and a dry, cold air mass will settle across the area behind it. This drier air mass is anticipated to result in sensitive fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values are forecast to fall below 35% on Monday across portions of the interior on Monday afternoon and west of the I-4 corridor on Tuesday. Winds are not anticipated to reach critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 51 61 34 / 0 10 50 0 MCO 72 54 66 36 / 0 10 40 0 MLB 72 54 71 39 / 0 10 30 0 VRB 74 54 74 40 / 10 10 20 0 LEE 72 50 58 33 / 0 20 50 0 SFB 73 52 63 35 / 0 10 50 0 ORL 72 54 63 37 / 0 10 50 0 FPR 74 54 75 40 / 10 10 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

AM...None.