textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- High risk of rip currents and rough surf continue at area beaches; entering the water is strongly discouraged!

- Hazardous boating conditions linger through Tuesday afternoon, followed by a period of poor conditions offshore and a return to hazardous conditions on Thursday

- Isolated to scattered showers each day this week, a storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially Thursday onward

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Now-Tonight...High pressure centered well north and east of the Florida Peninsula is helping to maintain onshore flow this afternoon. Embedded in the easterly flow are low and mid level clouds, some of which are now producing light to moderate rain showers over east-central Florida. GOES-derived PW are around 1.25- 1.4" from north to south, respectively. Moisture is largely concentrated between 900-850mb, and instability is lacking overall. Where the slightly higher MUCAPE and moisture content exists south of Kissimmee/Melbourne, we maintain a low (20%) chance of lightning this afternoon. However, most activity is likely to remain lightning-free as it drifts west-southwest through early evening. Overall rain amounts stay under 0.10" for most, with the exception of slightly higher amounts where repeated showers occur. Comparably drier conditions take over later in the evening and overnight as temperatures settle into the low to mid 60s. Gusty winds from earlier in the day are forecast to slow to around 10-15 mph at the coast (less than 10 mph inland).

A High Surf Advisory remains in place until 4 PM from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet (Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin County beaches). Large breaking waves will very slowly begin to decrease tonight into Tuesday, but a High Risk of Rip Currents will continue for the next several days. Entering the water is strongly discouraged.

Tuesday-Sunday (modified)...Little change in the overall pattern is anticipated this week as high pressure stays put over the north- central Atlantic. 500mb ridging breaks down minimally later in the week as a degenerating trough moves across the southeast U.S. Onshore flow will persist, locally enhanced each afternoon by the east coast sea breeze, causing wind speeds to reach 15 to 20 mph at times (gusts 25 to 30 mph). This persistent easterly flow will help keep PWAT values across the peninsula in the 1.3-1.6" range, with isolated to scattered showers possible each afternoon. As the sea breeze develops and moves inland, it will take rain chances with it, generally ranging from 20-40% each day. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out, particularly later in the week, but chances remain low (between 20-30%). Shower or storm activity will wane into the late evening and overnight hours, though isolated development across the local Atlantic waters may persist each night. Afternoon temperatures will follow a gradual warming trend through the week, reaching above-normal values across the interior by Thursday. Overnight temperatures will remain mostly unchanged, staying in the 60s.

While low shower chances look to continue this weekend, it is worth noting that there are sizable differences in model output beyond Friday. Some solutions are wetter along the east-central Florida coast and some are drier (isolated showers only). Guidance does hint at a front approaching north-central Florida early next week, bringing additional rain chances, but it is too early to determine any specifics at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Poor to hazardous conditions will linger across the local Atlantic from this evening into Tuesday. While gradually improving winds and seas are forecast, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine legs (except the nearshore Volusia waters, where small craft should exercise caution). Seas of 5 to 8 feet and east- southeast winds 10-20 kt are forecast.

High pressure remains over the local Atlantic through the week with a period of poor conditions Tuesday evening through Wednesday. By Thursday, onshore flow freshens again, bringing 15-20+ kt winds and 5-7 ft seas (occasionally 8 ft offshore). Small Craft Advisories are possible again later in the week as a result.

Isolated to scattered shower activity continues all week with a low chance (20-30%) of a lightning storms, particularly in the Gulf Stream each night.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 750 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Easterly (onshore) flow will decrease a bit this eve and overnight, esp the gustiness. Isolated SHRA will continue to push onto the coast but should have increasing difficulty reaching the interior terminals. Brief MVFR conds poss mainly in passing SHRA at coastal terminals. NBM shows a 40% chance for MVFR vsbys (fog) at DAB right around sunrise where winds become light/variable. On Tue, E/SE winds pick up behind the sea breeze with gusts 20-22KTS VRB-SUA in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 63 80 63 81 / 10 10 0 20 MCO 65 83 65 83 / 10 20 0 20 MLB 67 80 66 81 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 66 81 66 81 / 20 20 10 20 LEE 63 84 64 84 / 0 20 0 20 SFB 64 83 64 84 / 10 20 0 20 ORL 65 83 65 84 / 10 20 0 20 FPR 65 81 64 81 / 20 20 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555-570.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572-575.