textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all East Central Florida counties until 8 PM for peak heat indices of 108F to 112F. Practice heat safety!

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each afternoon through early next week. Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be the main storm hazards.

- Hot conditions will continue over the next couple of days with temperatures trending closer to normal late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Despite soundings and GOES imagery showing PWATs at or above 2.0" (well above the 90th percentile for the time of year), inhibition has out over North and East Central Florida this morning/most of this afternoon (apparent by the anemic cu-field), and thunderstorms had been confined to West Central Florid until now. Showers and storms have finally begun to pop over our area, but continue to struggle. The latest HRRR runs have been doing decent job capturing the evolution so far, albeit with lower coverage than reality, and the official forecast has been adjusted closer to those solutions. Rain and storm chances remain near to slightly above normal, but the highest chances (around 60%) are now confined to the southern counties in the evening where outflow from the current activity is forecast to collide with the slowed east coast sea breeze. That said, the rest of the area sports a broad 40-50% chance. Storms that manage to develop could become strong and produce gusty winds 45-55 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and a quick 1-3" of rainfall leading to localized flooding. It's hot with all the sunshine. Temperatures have reached the L-M90s, and a few spots have hit the U90s, with a little more daytime heating still to go. A couple record high temperatures could be hit before the end of the day. Peak afternoon heat indices up to around 112 are expected, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM.

Thursday-Friday...Little change at the surface. Offshore (SW-S) flow across the peninsula will continue between a quasi- stationary front draped across the southeast and high pressure over the Atlantic. Aloft, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to develop over Florida at the base of the trough stationed over the eastern US. Between lingering high moisture (PWATs generally 1.8-2.0"), the upper level support, and offshore flow favoring a sea breeze collision on the eastern side of the peninsula, rain chances remain above normal (45-65%), though some drier air (PWATs down to 1.7") may sneak into low-mid levels and result in chances lower than currently advertised. Some modest cooling in the mid- levels could support wider coverage stronger storms capable of wind gusts 45-55 mph, and a few locally damaging gusts around 60 mph can't be ruled out. Frequent to excessive cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding are also possible. There is also a very low chance for a funnel cloud to develop given all the boundary collisions. Heat will remain a concern. Although increased cloud cover and rain chances shave a degree or two off temperatures, bringing highs closer to normal in the L-M90s, the high humidity will keep peak afternoon heat indices in the U100s-L110s Thursday, and the M-U100s Friday. Yet more Heat Advisories may be needed. Residents and visitors should continue to practice heat safety, and avoid extended exposure or take frequent breaks during the hottest part of the day.

Saturday-Tuesday...A little bit of uncertainty in the extended forecast, but generally expect the hot and stormy afternoons to continue. The surface pattern remains largely unchanged, with the quasi-stationary front continuing its residency over the Southeast, keeping the Bermuda high ridge axis shunted south of Central Florida, and us in offshore (SW-S) flow favoring a sea breeze collision over the eastern half of the peninsula. The upper-level pattern over the CONUS amplifies as energy dives into the trough over the eastern US, though models disagree whether this energy will remain more a shortwave or develop into a mid- level low. A shortwave would cause less amplification and keep impulses of energy transiting the pattern more north of Florida, while a mid-level low would cause the trough to dig farther south, allowing more of the energy to reach the Florida. Worth noting there's also been some model disagreement over how strong these impulses will be, with some solutions developing a another mid-level low. All this to say, could see above normal rain chances late this weekend, depending where and how the upper level energy that could enhance convection evolves. For now, official forecast calls for slightly above normal rain chances through the weekend. The trough retreats north the first half of next week, but additional impulses of energy will continue to swing by in the flow aloft, supporting near normal rain chances despite some drier air intruding at times, which may result rain chances decreases for some spots in future forecast as confidence increases. Temperatures remain slightly above normal with highs in the L-M90s, which combined with the humidity result in peak afternoon heat indices to around 107, just shy of Heat Advisory.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions outside of offshore moving afternoon/evening storms and heat through the rest of the week and weekend. Westerly to southwesterly flow will continue between a front stalled across the Deep South and high pressure over the Atlantic. Winds shift south the southeast in the afternoons and evenings as the sea breeze develops, which will be slowed/pinned by the offshore flow. Wind speeds outside of storms 5-15 kts. Seas 1-2 ft, up to 3 ft in the Gulf Stream. Most lightning storms will develop inland during the afternoon and evening then move offshore, but a few may over the waters in the overnight and early morning. Stronger storms will be capable of wind gusts 34 kts or greater, frequent cloud to water lightning, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 151 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening. Scattered storms are already moving in from the west coast of Florida, generally south of MCO this afternoon, and are forecast to move across ECFL through the next couple of hours. While above normal uncertainty in the evolution of development in the CAMs continues, the general consensus is that this activity moving in from the west will move across ECFL, with additional storm development near the coast with the sea breeze collision and other boundary collisions later this afternoon. Have maintained PROB30s for all but KLEE this afternoon, with VCSH lingering into the evening near the coast. Outside of convection, westerly winds under 10 KT will back southeast at the coast after 18Z with the east coast sea breeze. Winds become light once again tonight before becoming westerly and increasing to around 5 KT by 15z Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 93 75 93 / 20 50 20 50 MCO 76 95 76 94 / 20 70 20 60 MLB 77 92 77 92 / 20 50 30 50 VRB 75 93 76 92 / 20 40 30 60 LEE 77 94 76 93 / 20 60 30 60 SFB 77 95 76 94 / 20 60 20 60 ORL 78 95 77 94 / 20 60 20 60 FPR 75 92 75 91 / 20 50 30 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.