textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 148 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Building moisture will lead to increasing shower and storm chances into the weekend.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue, with the increasing humidity leading to greater chances for peak heat indices exceeding 100F late this week and this weekend.

- At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents continues. Always swim near a lifeguard!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Today-Tonight...Will see rain chances return to the forecast today, with isolated showers already ongoing over the Atlantic waters early this morning. A few showers will occasionally drift onshore into coastal areas prior to sunrise, with PoPs near 20%.

Onshore flow is forecast to bring a wave of moisture over the area today (PWATs 1.6-2", depending on the model). Initially, any showers this morning will likely fall as virga until the very dry mid-levels can be moistened enough to not evaporate the rain droplets as they fall. This could make for a bit of a race against the sea breeze, where any showers are carried inland and then into the western half of the peninsula. However, the sea breeze itself will help to moisten the lower portions of the column. Regardless, PoPs remain generally low (20-30%) and the CAMs are not overly enthused with development in the Melbourne County Warning Area today. A few lightning storms will be possible, as MU CAPE increases to near 1000 J/kg. While dry air will be a limiting factor, a few stronger wind gusts near 45 mph cannot be ruled out, should any cells be able to take advantage of the dry air. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

As any activity drifts into the western half of the peninsula, PoPs fall below 20% this evening. However, additional showers are then forecast to develop over the local Atlantic waters overnight, drifting onshore at times through daybreak Wednesday. Overnight lows remain in the 70s, with morning temperatures near 80 along the immediate coast.

Wednesday-Thursday...Surface ridging drifts off of the Southeast seaboard and into the western Atlantic through midweek. Meanwhile, mid-level high pressure lingers over the northern Gulf coast. Models have an unusual amount of disagreement in the amount of available moisture through Thursday given the timeframe, with a PWAT difference near 0.8" at times. Have maintained a slightly wetter solution than the lower PWAT solution (GFS) would suggest, with PoPs 30-50% west of I-95. Onshore flow continues, increasing to 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze. Therefore, expect most activity to develop along the breeze over the interior in the afternoon, before drifting into the western half of the peninsula for the evening. Along the coast, PoPs are forecast to be lowest, near 20%. However, could see a few showers drift onshore into the Treasure Coast overnight, especially into Thursday morning. High temperatures in the upper 80s along the coast warm into the lower to mid-90s over the interior.

Friday-Tuesday...High pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic this weekend. By Saturday, the surface ridge axis is forecast to be south of the local area, where it lingers into early next week. Overall flow becomes light Friday, then becomes increasingly offshore through the period. However, still expect a southeasterly sea breeze to develop along the coast most days, though it will struggle to move inland from the coastal counties by Sunday. Models are in somewhat better agreement about the amount of available moisture by the weekend (PWATs ~1.8-2"); however, the ECMWF remains the wetter solution. Regardless, the increasingly offshore flow pattern favors higher rain chances over the eastern half of the peninsula and the PoP forecast reflects this, becoming up to 60-70%. The highest chances are expected during the afternoons, with the typical sea breeze-driven regime.

Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal, with highs for most in the lower to mid-90s. Increasing humidity will make it feel even hotter, with peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-107 Friday into this weekend. Residents and visitors should plan ahead for a stretch of hotter conditions, especially if spending extended periods of time outdoors: remain adequately hydrated, avoid the hottest points of the day, and take frequent breaks in the shade or an air-conditioned building. Muggy, warm nighttime temperatures will provide little relief from the daytime heat.

MARINE

Issued at 148 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Favorable boating conditions prevail through the weekend, as high pressure lingers over the area. East to southeast flow increases to 10-15 kts behind the sea breeze each afternoon through late week. By the weekend, southwesterly flow is expected to prevail, though will still see a southeasterly sea breeze in the afternoons. Building moisture will lead to increasing rain chances each day, with nocturnal activity through late week drifting onshore into coastal areas. By the weekend, offshore-moving showers and storms will be possible. Seas 2-3ft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 626 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR outside of ISOLD (MVFR) morning showers along the coast, then afternoon/evening convection into the interior as moisture surges back into ECFL. Will use "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as applicable. ERLY winds increasing to 8-12 kts with a few higher afternoon gusts will again diminish into evening. May still see an ISOLD shower near coastal terminals in the evening/overnight period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 86 75 88 73 / 20 10 20 0 MCO 90 74 91 74 / 30 10 50 10 MLB 88 78 88 77 / 20 10 20 0 VRB 88 77 88 75 / 20 10 20 10 LEE 90 75 92 75 / 30 10 40 20 SFB 90 74 92 73 / 30 10 40 10 ORL 90 75 92 74 / 30 10 50 10 FPR 88 76 88 74 / 20 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.