textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are forecast along a sea breeze collision late this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds 45-55 mph, and small hail.

- Favorable boating conditions today, becoming poor over the Gulf Stream Monday into Tuesday behind a front.

- Warmer today, slightly cooler along the coast Monday, then hotter mid to late week as high pressure builds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Today-Monday... Developing low pressure off the Carolina and mid Atlantic coast slowly pulls a cold front across the southeast U.S. today before sinking into central Florida on Monday. A loose pressure gradient is maintained today with light west-southwest surface flow in place over the Florida peninsula. A diffuse west coast sea breeze will propagate inland late morning and into the afternoon, eventually colliding with a pinned east coast sea breeze just west of the I-95 corridor late in the day. Initiation of widely isolated showers and storms are forecast along each respective boundary with most locations remaining dry through early afternoon. More scattered coverage develops along the boundary collision with perhaps the most favorable moisture (PWAT 1.5-1.6") across the Treasure Coast counties and in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee, and the best coverage looks to reside over these areas (~50%). A strong storm environment will exist in vicinity of and just west of the I- 95 corridor late in the day supported by surface instability exceeding 2,000+ J/Kg and dry air aloft (DCAPE~ 900-1,000 J/Kg). Stronger storms which develop will be capable of frequent lightning, brief heavy downpours, and wind gusts of 45-55 mph. Lower confidence exists in small hail should updrafts be able to overcome the layer of dry air aloft. Steering flow should guide any convection and lingering rainfall towards the coast and offshore through the evening with dry conditions then building into the overnight. Limited inland propagation of the east coast sea breeze will keep temperatures warm, reaching the upper 80s across much of east central Florida today.

Light westerly surface winds shift northwest tonight, further veering northeast early Monday morning as the cold front passes central Florida. Shower and storm chances associated with the weak front remain low (20-30%) before dry air builds behind the boundary. Northeast flow should slightly nudge temperatures down a few degrees bringing values closer to normal along the coast (L/M80s) and through the Orlando Metro (M80s). However, above normal highs look to continue across the far interior (U80s) including portions of western Lake, western Osceola, and Okeechobee.

Tuesday-Saturday... High pressure builds along the eastern seaboard into Tuesday, before quickly becoming displaced as the next cold front pushes eastward. The front slowly sags towards central Florida Thursday becoming briefly stationary and lifting back northward into Saturday. Dry conditions are favored through Wednesday before the next rain chances creep into the forecast again on Thursday. The rain forecast from Thursday into late week could see some variability over the next several forecast cycles as models try to resolve a more precise location of where the front may end up. That being said, the current blend of models introduces isolated to scattered rain chances for areas near and north of Orlando Thursday. Onshore flow keeps highs in the low 80s along the coast Tuesday, warming into the mid to upper 80s west of I-95. A continued hot trend builds into mid week with moderate to high probabilities of interior locations reaching the low 90s Wednesday, continuing through late week.

MARINE

Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Favorable boating conditions continue today outside of scattered offshore-moving showers and storms. Southwest winds shift south to southeast as the sea breeze develops in the afternoon. Seas mostly 2ft.

Poor to hazardous boating conditions build in the Gulf Stream late Monday behind the next cold front. Winds veer tonight becoming northeast 10-15 kts behind the front Monday. Seas build 4-5 ft nearshore and 5-7 ft in the Gulf Stream Monday night, slowly subsiding to become 3-5 ft by Wednesday. Winds lighten out of the east-northeast Tuesday, shifting south Wednesday as a surface ridge builds over the waters. Mostly dry over the local Atlantic waters Monday through at least mid week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 641 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

SW winds around 8-12 kts this afternoon will limit the inland intrusion of the east coast sea breeze. However, will see coastal terminals back E by around 20Z, before winds become light and variable overnight. Then, a cold front leads to NNE winds around 10-12 kts by daybreak Monday.

Despite W flow, some CAMs suggest the sea breeze could approach MCO/SFB by late afternoon. This complicates the most likely spot for convection today. However, there is higher confidence in impacts to coastal terminals, which is reflected in the TAF. TEMPOs have been included for all coastal terminals from around 21-2Z, lingering latest along the Treasure Coast. Will need to watch for impacts to SFB/MCO/ISM, though most convection should remain just east of those areas. Regardless, VCTS mentioned at all local TAF sites for at least a portion of the afternoon. A few strong storms will be possible, mainly along the sea breeze, with wind gusts up to 35-45 kts and perhaps some small hail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Light westerly flow will push the west coast sea breeze far inland today, eventually colliding with the east coast breeze just west of the I-95 corridor. Scattered showers and storms are forecast along the collision late this afternoon and evening with a few storms becoming strong. New fire starts are a concern with lightning activity today. Winds shift overnight, becoming northeast 10-15 mph behind a cold front passage tomorrow. MinRH recovers today and tomorrow before a drier airmass builds again Tuesday into mid week. Good to very good smoke dispersion is forecast early this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 86 66 79 66 / 30 20 20 0 MCO 88 68 84 67 / 40 10 30 0 MLB 87 68 82 69 / 40 20 10 0 VRB 87 65 84 68 / 40 30 20 0 LEE 88 67 85 64 / 30 10 20 0 SFB 88 66 84 65 / 40 20 20 0 ORL 88 68 84 67 / 40 10 30 0 FPR 87 65 84 67 / 40 30 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.