textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- An unsettled pattern will continue to produce scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms across the area through Thursday.

- A cool front late week will bring lower rain chances and drier air into the weekend.

- Breezy northeast winds behind the front will lead to deteriorating beach and boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Rest of Today-Wednesday...A stalled upper level low lingers over the Florida peninsula today. This feature is providing enough enhancement to develop scattered to numerous showers and storms along the sea breeze early this afternoon, mainly south of Orlando. Expect this activity to continue westward through this afternoon, clearing into the western half of the peninsula by sunset. Mostly dry conditions then prevail overnight over land areas. However, persistent showers and storms over the Atlantic waters may occasionally drift onshore into coastal areas overnight. The main threats with any storms through this afternoon will be gusty winds to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3". Low temperatures dip into the lower to mid-70s tonight. Patchy fog will be possible over the interior, especially north of Orlando.

An upper level trough dropping through the central US will push the low NE and merge with it through Wednesday. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3") and the continued unsettled pattern will maintain higher coverage of showers and storms (40-70%) through mid-week. A few strong storms will remain possible. But, 500 mb temperatures warming from around -8 C today to -5 to -6 C by Wednesday will limit the threat overall. Onshore flow becomes increasingly NNE through the period, but remains around 10 mph or less. Winds overnight become light and variable, so will need to monitor the threat for patchy fog each night, especially over the interior. Otherwise, warm highs continue to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, which combine with high humidity to produce heat indices 98-102 degrees.

Thursday-Monday...A strong low pressure system develops into Thursday morning offshore from the NE US. Meanwhile, the upper level trough digs into Florida, dragging a cool front southward through the peninsula. High coverage of showers and storms again on Thursday (50-70%), mainly along the weakening front. However, will see progressively lower rain chances from north to south into the weekend, as drier air filters into the area. PWATs fall below 1.5" this weekend, leading to PoPs 20-40% or less, highest across southern portions of the forecast area.

A tightening pressure gradient will produce breezy and gusty NNE winds behind the front beginning on Thursday. Winds build to 10-15 mph Thursday afternoon and 15-20 mph Friday, with gusts 20-30 mph. The highest winds are forecast along the coast, especially north of the Cape. Breezy conditions linger Saturday, before winds fall to around 10 mph again into early next week. Enhanced onshore flow will lead to poor to hazardous beach conditions this weekend. Slightly cooler high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are forecast, though lower humidity will provide relief from heat indices above 100. Inland locations could even see lows in the 60s by the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially overnight, will remain a threat over the local Atlantic waters through Wednesday. Outside of convection, generally favorable boating conditions persist, with NE winds remaining around 10 kts or less. Seas 1-3 ft.

A nor'easter off of the NE US coast will drag a cool front through the local waters Thursday. NE winds increase to 20-25 kts, progressing farther southward into Friday. Winds then remain breezy around 10-15 kts into the first half of the weekend. Higher coverage of showers and storms lingers Thursday, before drier air reduces chances into the weekend. Hazardous seas up to 6-9 ft are forecast to continue into Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Mostly VFR and quiet at ECFL TAF terminals tonight. Some SHRA may brush the coast occasionally, but not confident enough +for even VC mention. There is a very low chances for BR/FG INVOF KLEE-KISM early this morning, but again too low for mention in TAFs. Winds light/VRB tonight and this morning, becoming NE-E 5-10 kts as the Atlantic breeze develops and pushes inland. High-res guidance in pretty good agreement outflow from TS over the Atlantic waters NE of the area will get the sea breeze moving inland up north first (after 15Z), followed by down south (after 17Z). TS may develop along/ahead of the boundary as early as 15Z, but generally expected after 17Z, with a sea breeze collision INVOF of KMCO/ other inland terminals to INVOF KMLB-KSUA after 19Z. Added PROB30s at most of the aforementioned terminals, and may need to upgrade to TEMPOs in later packages if confidence for TS impacts increases. Most TS forecast to diminish after around 23Z-01Z, but some may linger as late as 05Z, especially along the southern coast. Winds become light/VRB again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 75 88 75 / 30 10 50 20 MCO 91 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 10 MLB 88 74 88 75 / 50 20 60 20 VRB 88 73 87 73 / 50 20 60 20 LEE 91 74 91 74 / 40 20 60 10 SFB 90 74 90 74 / 40 20 60 10 ORL 90 75 90 75 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 88 72 87 72 / 60 30 70 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.