textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

- An approaching cold front brings breezy conditions and a chance of showers on Monday

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions develop late tonight and continue through Tuesday before improving mid to late week

- A high risk of rip currents along with rough surf is forecast at the local beaches on Monday; entering the ocean is not advised

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Current-Tonight...An area of high pressure situated across north Florida will continue moving offshore as a cold front draped across the southeastern US slowly progresses southward. This will lead to continued dry conditions through the remainder of this afternoon into the evening hours across east central Florida, aside from some light, isolated showers being possible along the Treasure Coast. Northeast winds around 10 mph persist, with highs remaining on track to reach the mid 70s to low 80s. The cold front is forecast to begin its gradual approach towards the Florida peninsula late tonight, with the northeasterly winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph into the overnight hours. Guidance continues to favor drier conditions tonight out ahead of the front, with lows falling into the 50s across the interior and the low to mid 60s along the coast from the Cape southward.

Monday-Tuesday...The slow-moving cold front is forecast to continue moving southward across the Florida peninsula into Monday. East- northeast winds will increase ahead of and behind the front to 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible, especially along the coast. Within the strong onshore flow, isolated to scattered sprinkles and showers cannot be ruled out across the local Atlantic waters, with short-range guidance hinting at some activity moving onshore and towards the interior throughout the day. Despite the front moving south across the area, temperatures are forecast to remain slightly above normal, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. By Monday evening, the front is forecast to be south of east central Florida, with shower chances diminishing overnight. East-northeast winds are forecast to subside Monday night, though some gusty conditions will continue to be possible along the Treasure Coast. Lows will primarily be in the 60s areawide, with some locations across Lake and northern interior Volusia falling into the upper 50s.

With the increasing onshore flow, seas are anticipated to increase late tonight into Monday. This is forecast to lead to deteriorating conditions at all east central Florida beaches on Monday, with rough surf, breaking waves of 3 to 5 feet, and a high risk of rip currents all possible. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

By Tuesday, surface high pressure settles across the Florida peninsula, keeping conditions mostly dry. Winds become more easterly on Tuesday and sunny skies are anticipated areawide. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s, with overnight lows falling into the 50s across most of the area. Poor beach conditions will continue to be possible, with rip currents and rough surf continuing to be the main concern.

Wednesday-Saturday (previous modified)...Surface high pressure expands over the southeast U.S. mid to late week, keeping local conditions tranquil overall. Rain chances are little to nothing, with the exception of a weak backdoor cold front late Wednesday night. This feature may be accompanied by a few coastal showers south of the Cape, though confidence remains low at this time. Stuck with the NBM showing any rain chances remaining primarily across the local Atlantic waters. Otherwise, near to slightly warmer-than- normal temperatures are forecast through Christmas Day and into next weekend, with highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s. The pressure ridge weakens a bit after Friday as a series of disturbances develop from the Great Lakes to the northeast U.S. Notable spread in model guidance occurs from Saturday-Sunday onward, but we should stay dry through the remainder of the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Boating conditions are forecast to deteriorate tonight as a cold front begins its slow approach towards the local Atlantic waters. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local Atlantic waters on Monday ahead of and along the front, diminishing Monday night. East to northeast winds are forecast to increase to 15 to 25 knots due to the front and tightening pressure gradient, resulting in rapidly rising wave heights. Seas climb to 6 to 9 feet on Monday, with the front moving south of the area Monday night. Small Craft Advisories go into effect starting late tonight across the offshore waters, expanding to the nearshore waters early Monday morning as conditions further deteriorate. These advisories continue into Tuesday, gradually dropping as conditions improve thanks to gradually subsiding seas and diminishing onshore winds as an area of high pressure builds across the local waters. A return of generally favorable boating conditions is forecast mid to late week along with dry weather.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1255 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Mainly VFR conds through the TAF period. Inserted VCSH at SUA this afternoon for isold Atlc showers. The main impact will be increased NE winds/gusts on Mon behind a backdoor cold front pushing through overnight. Marine stratocumulus clouds will push onshore and well inland with bases 035-055AGL and ocnly BKN. Some of this stratocu will be wet, containing isold, fast-moving SHRA crossing the coast so VCSH has been included at TIX-MLB at 15Z and may be needed farther south (VRB-SUA) and inland (MCO) Mon aftn.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 57 75 61 76 / 10 20 10 0 MCO 59 77 62 78 / 0 20 10 0 MLB 63 77 64 77 / 0 20 20 0 VRB 64 78 64 77 / 10 20 20 10 LEE 54 76 58 78 / 0 10 10 0 SFB 56 77 61 78 / 0 20 10 0 ORL 58 76 61 77 / 0 20 10 0 FPR 63 78 64 77 / 10 20 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ572-575.