textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- A High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the surf is highly discouraged.

- Warming trend under deep high pressure continues, with near record highs in the low 90s forecast across the interior Friday into the weekend.

- Remaining mostly dry through the weekend, then a small chance of showers returns to the forecast early next week as a weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Today-Tonight...Deep high pressure over Florida will keep us dry and warm. Onshore (easterly) flow continues as the ridge axis of surface high pressure extending from the Atlantic towards Florida stays just north of the area. A more relaxed pressure gradient will produce lighter winds today, increasing to 5-10 mph inland, and to around 10 mph with occasional gusts along the coast in the afternoon behind the sea breeze. Afternoon highs in the U70s-M80s, possibly reaching the U80s well inland. A few onshore moving sprinkles embedded in the marine strato cu can't be ruled out. The light overnight winds, mostly clear skies, and ridge aloft result in a little better chance for early morning fog than previous days, but generally most of the area remains too dry with dew point depressions 3 degrees or greater. The gap closes enough along and north of I-4 for a low (less than 20%) chance of patchy fog early this morning, and again early Thursday morning.

Lingering long period swell will continue to produce dangerous rip currents at the beaches, and a high rip current risk continues for the Central Florida Atlantic coastline. Visitors and residents are advised to not enter this hazardous surf.

Thursday-Sunday...The ridge aloft extending from the Gulf over Florida is flattened by a passing shortwave Friday, and remains suppressed through the weekend by a trough swinging across the eastern US. At the surface, the ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic settles south over Central Florida by Friday, then begins to retreat eastward over the weekend ahead of an approaching front associated with the trough. Dry conditions and gradual warming will continue, with near record afternoon highs in the U80-L90s forecast Friday across the interior through the weekend. Easterly to southeasterly flow around the ridge plus the afternoon sea breeze will keep highs in the coastal counties to the L-M80s. Could see some onshore moving showers from time to time, especially towards the weekend as moisture increases a bit in the more southeasterly flow. The additional moisture will also increase the chances of morning fog across a wider part of East Central Florida.

Monday-Wednesday...A weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a small chance of showers, breezy to windy conditions in the afternoons, and a slight cool down. Moisture return and forcing ahead of/along the front are looking pretty meager by the time the boundary reaches Florida. ECM and GFS both depict a mostly quiet frontal passage, with the best chances for showers, such as they are, at 20-30% in afternoons across the central (Monday) and southern (Monday through Wednesday) counties where daytime heating destabilizes residual moisture from the frontal boundary. Breezy to windy conditions are likely to develop in the afternoons as the pressure gradient tightens between the front to the south and high pressure behind the front sliding across the Southeast towards the eastern seaboard. Temperatures drop back closer to normal with afternoon highs in the M70s-L80s and overnight lows in the U50s-U60s.

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Today-Sunday...Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic north of the area today gradually drops south into Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters by Friday. The high then begins to retreat eastward over the weekend as front approaches, forecast to push through late Sunday into early Monday. Easterly winds 5-15 kts today gradually veer more southeasterly and weaken the next couple days as the ridge axis settles over the area. With light background flow Friday through the weekend, winds shift between SE-ESE in the afternoon/early overnight and SSW-WSW late overnight/early morning with the diurnal sea breeze circulation. Seas 3-5 ft early this morning settle to 2-4 ft Thursday through the weekend. A few light showers may develop from time to time, but otherwise dry conditions. Boating conditions deteriorate Sunday night as the front arrives.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 101 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

High pressure continues over the Florida peninsula through the TAF period. Earlier BKN035-040 continue to lift through the afternoon. VFR conditions prevailing, though will be watching the possibility of patchy fog at terminals along and north of I-4 (MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE/DAB). At this time, confidence in timing or location of any fog is too low to include in the TAF.

Otherwise, onshore flow continues. Breezy E winds along the coast early this afternoon diminish into this evening. Wind gusts up to 20 kts possible along the Treasure Coast over the next few hours. Then, lighter winds overnight, becoming more SE. E winds return around 8-12 kts Thursday morning and into the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Dry conditions prevail and the warming trend continues through the weekend. Easterly flow gradually weakens and becomes more southeasterly as the ridge axis of high pressure north of the area today settles south into Central Florida by Friday. Winds generally increase to 5-10 mph inland and to around 10 mph along the coast, while backing easterly behind the sea breeze in the afternoons and evenings, then become light and possibly variable overnight. No min RH concerns along the coast. Inland min RHs 30-45%, lowest north of the I-4 corridor, but winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph and Red Flag conditions are not expected. High temperatures in the U70s-M80s today increase to the M80s-L90s going towards the weekend, near high temperature records inland. There is a low chance for patchy fog along and north of the I-4 corridor early this morning and again early Thursday morning, then chances increase to more parts of East Central Florida Friday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 59 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 66 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 59 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 61 86 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 62 81 63 83 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.