textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through this week. The main storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise, the potential exists for frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts up to 50 mph. - Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is High risk for dangerous rip currents today along the Volusia and north Brevard coasts, while a Moderate risk of rip currents continues across south Brevard and the Treasure Coast. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Current-Thursday...With a frontal boundary in proximity, we will see occasional onshore moving showers/ISOLD storms this morning. The boundary will begin to lift back northward today as weak Atlc high pressure ridging pushes back toward the east central FL coast on Thu. The weak pressure pattern will permit early development and advancement well inland of the ECSB this afternoon and perhaps not quite as far into the interior for Thu. Nonetheless, an eventual late day/evening sea breeze collision will occur across the interior both days. PWATs remain very high, well in excess of 2". Storm steering will be light and toward the NE/N today shifting more to light SW on Thu. Overall storm motion will be weak and erratic at times with stronger boundary collisions. PoPs today 40-60% with highest values favoring the interior this afternoon and 50-70% areawide on Thu. Aloft, weak troughing continues across the central peninsula enhancing convection. Primary storm impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds locally 40-50 mph, and torrential downpours capable of 1-3" in a relatively short period (esp interior for today) promoting minor/nuisance flooding in repeated rounds or across locations that may have recently seen abundant rainfall.

Max temps near climo in the U80s/L90s. Humid overnight with mins in the 70s. Peak heat indices in the U90s to L-M100s ahead of daily storms.

Fri-Tue...Aloft weak troughing will aid diurnal convection into Sat, then mid-level high pressure begins to build/strengthen across the Deep South into early next week. At the surface, initial high pressure ridging near the central FL peninsula will move slowly northward into this weekend, though we still retain a fairly weak pressure gradient across the coverage warning area. A deeper onshore flow pattern will develop late Sun into early next week. Deep moisture will continue to surge across the area as we return to a more typical sea breeze and diurnal convection pattern. Fairly high PoP numbers (60-80%) for Fri-Sun, then perhaps a slight drop-off into Mon/Tue (40-60%). Primary storm impacts continue to revolve around locally heavy rainfall. Near seasonal temps for highs (U80s-L90s) with lows in the 70s and conditions remaining humid. Peak heat indices continue in the U90s to M100s.

MARINE

Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Thru Sunday...A weak frontal boundary across the area will lift back north with the Atlc ridge axis nosing back into the central FL peninsula thru lake work-week, then northward into the weekend. A fairly weak pressure gradient will continue in place with winds generally AOB 15 kts. Winds will still transition onshore 10-12 kts along the coast as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland each day. Moisture remains high thru the period and expect SCT showers and lightning storms to remain in the forecast becoming occasionally NMRS in coverage.

Occasional diurnal offshore-moving storms affecting the intracoastal and near shore waters will also continue. A few strong storms are possible with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds in excess of 40 kts, and heavy downpours. Overnight activity (outside of early this morning again) mostly confined to the Gulf Stream, where a few strong storms will remain possible with frequent lightning/gusty winds. Seas locally higher invof storms. Seas 2-4 ft today may build to 5 ft well offshore (Volusia coast) gradually subsiding late tonight into the weekend slowly back toward 2-3 ft.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to develop along outflow boundaries and the inland moving east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Greatest coverage will be focused near to west of I-95 and for this reason have mostly limited mention of this activity to VCTS through 22-23Z at coastal terminals. However, across the interior have tempo groups from MVFR cig/vis TSRA impacts ranging from 18-22Z. Some of these windows may have to be extended slightly depending on how quickly convection develops. Much of this activity should diminish and shift into west central FL by 00Z, but some lingering rain/isolated storms may continue through the evening. Otherwise, mostly dry overnight, except for some isolated onshore moving showers/possibly a storm or two along the coast, mainly south of the Cape.

Easterly winds up to 8-11 knots will diminish to 5 knots or less into tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 90 75 91 / 10 50 20 80 MCO 76 92 76 93 / 10 60 20 80 MLB 78 90 77 91 / 20 40 10 70 VRB 77 90 75 90 / 20 50 20 70 LEE 76 92 76 91 / 30 60 40 80 SFB 76 92 76 92 / 10 70 10 80 ORL 76 92 77 92 / 10 70 20 80 FPR 76 89 75 90 / 20 50 20 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.