textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Quiet, seasonable weather continues through the middle of this week. A strong cold front is forecast to reach Central Florida late Thursday or Friday, but only light rainfall is currently expected. The coolest air of the autumn season thus far is expected next weekend

- A long-period swell is causing a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the ocean!

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin earlier this week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather across east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate clear skies across with plenty of sunshine for east central Florida. Temperatures are seasonable in the upper 70s to low 80s with comfortable humidity with dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Analysis charts show high pressure (~1024mb) building to the northwest of Florida over the Mid South.

Dry weather is expected to persist tonight with seasonable to above normal lows in the upper 50s to around 70F degrees. Light and variable winds combined with a radiation inversion will result in the potential for patchy fog tonight along and north of I-4 (mainly between 4AM-8AM) with visibility reductions to 3 miles or less. Remember to use low beam headlights and slow down if you encounter fog.

Monday-Tuesday... A persistent dry weather pattern is expected through at least early this week as high pressure (~1022mb) builds over the Mid-South into Monday and across the Deep South Tuesday. Light northeast winds on Monday are expected to shift east- southeast on Tuesday. High temperatures will be seasonable in the low to mid 80s with seasonable to above normal lows in the upper 50s to around 70F degrees.

Wednesday-Saturday... A weak shortwave is forecast to traverse the Deep South and northern Florida on Wednesday which with increased moisture will result in a gradual increase in rain chances mid to late week. Rain chances then increase on Thursday and Friday with a cold frontal passage that is forecast Thursday into Friday. Deterministic guidance continues to diverge with two potential solutions. The GFS and LREF-ensemble clusters show a deeper low over the southern US with a greater potential for rain across east central Florida. The ECMWF and CMC show a weaker low that is further north across the northeastern US which would result in lower chances Thursday into Friday.

The NBM still appears to have a low bias in precipitation chances Wednesday-Friday, therefore, it is likely that rain chances will increase as we get closer to the event with at least scattered coverage. Additionally, one thing to keep in mind is that the dynamics are favorable for strong storms Thursday into Friday (especially if the GFS is correct), whereas, instability is forecast to be lacking. There will be a much better potential for strong storms during the aforementioned time period if instability increases with future model runs. Isolated showers (20% chance) are forecast on Friday with isolated to widely scattered showers (~20-30% chance) on Thursday. Dry weather is expected behind the front. Seasonable high temperatures and seasonable to above average lows are forecast Wednesday with below normal temperatures late week and into the weekend. The coldest air of the season thus far is expected behind the cold front.

MARINE

Issued at 255 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Currently-Tonight... Dry weather with mostly favorable boating conditions are expected as high pressure builds to the northwest of east central Florida. North-northeast winds at 5-10kts are expected. Seas to 2-4 ft nearshore and 3-5 ft offshore (20-60nm) are expected.

Monday-Thursday... Boating conditions are forecast to become choppy on Monday, improve into midweek, and deteriorate on Thursday. North winds at 5-10kts are forecast to turn east- southeast on Tuesday, generally offshore on Wednesday, and increase to 15-25kts into Thursday night. Seas to 3-4ft nearshore and 3-5ft (up to 6ft over the Volusia to Brevard county waters) are expected Monday before improving to 2-4ft Tuesday night. Dry weather is forecast before rain chances increase Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated generally offshore moving showers are forecast on Wednesday before a cold front is forecast to move across the waters late week which will increase rain chances on Thursday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across the Volusia to Brevard county offshore (20-60nm) waters Monday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 549 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Chances for BR/FG at KLEE and INVOF KMCO/I-4 terminals late tonight into early Monday morning have increased a bit more since the 18Z package, now broadly 20-30% for MVFR-IFR reductions with a consistent signal for patches of LIFR reductions, but low confidence where these could set up. Went ahead and introduced a TEMPO at KLEE and VCFG at KMCO/I-4 terminals from 10Z-14Z. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions forecast through the TAF period. Winds becoming NNW-NE winds become light/VRB tonight, then pick back up to 5-10 kts Monday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 63 83 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 66 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 66 83 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 61 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 62 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 63 83 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 65 82 66 82 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.