textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms will persist through the week, with the highest coverage expected from mid to late week. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph, particularly this afternoon and Tuesday.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are expected through the week. Those working or recreating outdoors should take frequent breaks and stay hydrated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Current-Tonight...Temperatures top out in the L-M90s this afternoon with peak heat indices continuing above 100F, but remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat illness. Weak mid-level troughing continues across ECFL and will enhance ISOLD-SCT (20-50%) diurnal shower/lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Highest chances across the I-4 corridor where greatest moisture and strongest late day boundary collisions occur. Storm motion is weak/erratic. Drier air aloft may support local strong wind gusts (45-55 mph) in a few storms with other storm impacts remaining frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours leading to quick 1-3" rainfall totals for some. Minor/nuisance flooding possible locally. Activity will wind down through mid evening. Min temperatures fall into the M70s with conditions humid. Tue-Tue Night...Surface ridge axis initially across the south- central FL peninsula begins to slowly lift northward. Light morning SW winds will "back" onshore in the afternoon with sea breeze formation and march inland. ISOLD-SCT showers/lightning storms with the ECSB near the coast - quicker movement inland south; similarly the quicker-moving WCSB will promote initial convection across our western coverage warning area. A late day/evening sea breeze collision across the interior may send a few storms back to the coast, esp Cape northward. PoPs 30-60% - highest interior & I-4 corridor. Activity will wind down thru mid evening. Primary storm impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 45-55 mph locally, torrential downpours possibly leading to minor/nuisance flooding. Storm motion toward the NE at 5-10 mph.

High temps continue in the L-M90s. Peak heat indices 100 to 107. Overnight lows consistent in the M70s. Cloud-cover thins thru the night with conditions muggy.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Below.

Wed-Fri...As high pressure nudges essentially overhead, the low- level sea breeze circulation will be the dominant force for storm development each day. Light offshore flow in the mid-levels will try to steer showers and storms back toward the coast in the evening hours. As moisture returns to normal, this portends fairly high coverage of afternoon and early evening showers and storms for east central Florida (50-70%).

Seasonably hot conditions continue, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 100 to 107.

Next Weekend into Monday...Near-normal moisture remains in place with high pressure strengthening nearby or just northeast of the local area. Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms should continue, but the focus may shift over the interior as mid- level offshore flow weakens. Continued seasonable heat and humidity.

MARINE

Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions continue across the local waters outside of shower/lightning storm activity through this week. The Atlantic surface high slowly lifts north across the waters this week, allowing southwesterly winds to become more southerly. Light offshore winds 5 to 10 kts during the overnight and morning hours increase to 10 to 12 kts and shift to out of the southeast during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops each day. Seas remain generally between 1 to 2 ft (occasionally 3 ft), with the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered shower and lightning storm development will be forecast, with activity affecting the intracoastal/near shore Atlc waters each afternoon/evening. Additional shower/storm development overnight across the Gulf Stream waters will be possible. Storm hazards will include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 kts, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

ISO SH that have gotten close to producing LTG at times have developed along and north of the I-4 in a pool of higher moisture, but overall convection is developing slower than previous days due to drier air. Light/VRB SW-SSW flow has allowed the ECSB to develop and begin moving inland, shifting winds S-SE around 10 kts behind the boundary. ISO SH have also started to develop on the boundary, and opted to shift coastal PROB30s to 18Z and include KDAB/KTIX based on trends and recent guidance. Coverage of TS will gradually increase on the sea breezes and storm boundaries as activity moves inland, peaking on the sea breeze collision INVOF the inland terminals after 22Z, though only forecast to be ISO- SCT. Continued with PROB30s inland due to low coverage/chances, but did add KLEE where chances increased slightly. TS forecast to dissipate after 00Z, with quiet VFR expected after 02Z. Tuesday, offshore flow slowing development of the ECSB and near normal afternoon TS/SH chances return.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 92 75 91 / 30 50 20 70 MCO 76 95 76 95 / 20 40 30 70 MLB 77 93 77 91 / 10 40 20 70 VRB 75 92 75 91 / 10 30 20 60 LEE 75 92 75 92 / 30 50 10 60 SFB 75 94 75 93 / 30 40 20 70 ORL 77 94 76 94 / 30 40 20 70 FPR 75 92 75 91 / 10 30 20 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.