textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Marginal Risk (low chance) for one or two strong to marginally severe storms for the interior of ECFL through 8PM this evening

- Hot and muggy conditions continue the rest of the week and into the holiday weekend, with peak heat indices 100-107F each afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast each day.

- Increasing moisture with an approaching frontal boundary will result in scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms through Thursday with higher rain chances Friday and into the Fourth of July weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and lightning storms with the greatest coverage from Osceola county north-northwestward. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 90s with heat index values generally between 100-107F degrees. Dew points are in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with east-northeast winds at 6-12mph. Analysis charts show a frontal boundary which extends from low pressure to the northeast of the Florida coast which has resulted in northeasterly flow over east central Florida. Isolated to scattered showers (20-60%) and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening before diminishing around 8PM.

A Marginal Risk (5-14%) for severe storms exists for the western interior of east central Florida. However, this morning's XMR sounding indicates relatively warm temperatures aloft with 500mb temperatures at -6.2C, in addition to weak MLCAPE at 976 J/kg, moderate DCAPE at 863 J/kg, and 0-6km shear at 4kts which suggests that the potential for a severe storm is low. Although, with moderate DCAPE and dry air in the mid/upper levels, a storm or two with strong downburst winds to 40-60mph (5-14% up to 60mph) cannot be ruled out, as well as frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3" in 60 minutes with a 1-10 chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 3" up to 4"). Rain chances are expected to diminish by around 8PM. Above normal to record low temperatures (~2-4F+ degrees) in the low 70s to near 80 degrees are forecast.

Wednesday-Thursday... The aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to sag south across northern Florida and east central Florida into Wednesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers (30-60%) and lightning storms are forecast to develop and move onshore along the coast into the morning hours (especially over Volusia county) Wednesday before increasing across the western interior of east central Florida into the afternoon and evening. Easterly flow on Thursday will result in sea breeze, as well as outflow boundary collisions across western Florida and primarily to the west of east central Florida. Scattered to numerous showers (30-70%) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening hours Thursday with the low coverage along the coast and highest rain chances across the western counties of east central Florida. Guidance indicates moderate MLCAPE, very weak 0-6km shear, and PWATs between 1.4"-2.3" which is sufficient for a couple to a few strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40- 50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-2" with a less than 5% chance in excess of 2" up to 3-4"). Near normal afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast each afternoon with above normal to near record low temperatures in the low 70s to near 80 degrees. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk exists each day. A Major HeatRisk can affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

Friday-Monday... High pressure is forecast to build over the Gulf of America as well as mid/upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS with 500mb heights reaching up to 594-597dm over the eastern US. The mid/upper level ridge is forecast to weaken and shift southeast over the southwest Atlantic Sunday into Monday. This will result in daily sea breeze driven showers (50-90%) and lightning storms with increased rain chances late week and into the weekend before decreasing into the beginning of next week. Near normal high temperatures are forecast with above normal to near record low temperatures. There is a 30-80% chance of a Major HeatRisk, with the highest probabilities along and north of I-4.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Currently-Wednesday... Mostly favorable boating conditions are forecast with low pressure and a frontal boundary to the northeast of the local Atlantic waters. Isolated to scattered generally onshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast each day. The potential exists for a strong storm or two capable of wind gusts in excess of 34kts. North-Northeast winds at 6-14kts are expected. Seas to 1-3ft are expected with up to 4ft over the offshore waters forecast to build to 5ft over the offshore (20-60nm) Brevard and Volusia county waters. Thursday-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected late week and into the weekend as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags south of the local Atlantic waters. Winds will turn easterly at 6-12kts behind a weak frontal boundary on Thursday and south- southeasterly Friday into Saturday. Isolated to scattered generally onshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast each day. The potential exists for a strong storm or two capable of wind gusts in excess of 34kts. Seas to 3-4ft are forecast to diminish into Friday at 1-3ft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Light and variable winds pick up to 5 to 10 knots out of the NE after 16Z areawide. VCSH/VCTS chances near the terminals increase as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, with greatest shower and storm coverage forecast across the interior. Maintain PROB30s at all interior terminals between 18-22Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Activity clears after 21Z along the coast and after 00Z across the interior, with light NE winds prevailing overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 89 77 90 / 30 40 20 30 MCO 76 91 76 93 / 20 50 10 60 MLB 78 88 78 90 / 20 30 20 40 VRB 77 90 77 90 / 30 30 20 50 LEE 77 91 76 93 / 20 50 10 50 SFB 76 91 76 93 / 20 40 10 50 ORL 77 90 76 92 / 20 40 10 60 FPR 76 89 76 90 / 30 30 20 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.