textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 304 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Patchy to locally dense fog will once again be possible across east central Florida late tonight into early Saturday morning.

- Warmer than normal through much of next week, with temperatures becoming more seasonable late week behind a cold front.

- A few light showers or sprinkles are forecast Sunday with the front, otherwise, mostly dry conditions through the period.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Model guidance continues to hone in on greater potential for fog development across portions of Volusia, Brevard, Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties late tonight into Saturday morning, so decided to add areas of fog to the forecast. Maintain patchy fog elsewhere for now, with development anticipated to start prior to midnight. If encountering reduced visibilities, drivers are encouraged to slow down, use only low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance between vehicles. Outside of the addition of areas of fog, everything else within the forecast remains on track for east central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today-Saturday... Upper level high pressure over the southeast has flattened today due to a shortwave moving eastward across the Midwest and Deep South, and will remain flat through Saturday. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Florida peninsula today will begin to drop south Saturday, while elongating ahead of an approaching weaken front associated with the passing upper level disturbance. Locally, dry conditions will dominate with no mentionable rain chances through Saturday. Light winds of 5 mph or less will prevail through the period with east to southeast winds today veering westerly on Saturday, although winds may become variable at times.

Temperatures through the period will be warmer than normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast and low to mid 80s across the interior today, and low to mid 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s through Saturday. Due to the light and variable winds and high pressure over head, patchy fog will once again be possible across east central Florida late tonight into Saturday morning. Conditions become less favorable for fog development Saturday night into Sunday, so have left fog out of the forecast for now.

Sunday-Wednesday... Upper level troughing across the eastern US will deepen on Sunday before moving offshore into early next week. Another trough will form over the central US and move northward, eventually becoming absorbed into a stronger upper level low moving into the Midwest by midweek. Upper level high pressure across the Gulf Sunday will shift eastward over the Florida peninsula into early next week before moving offshore over the Caribbean midweek next week as that trough moves into the Midwest. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will push through the Florida peninsula on Sunday as troughing over the eastern seaboard amplifies. Locally, low level moisture will increase slightly with the front, resulting in light showers or sprinkles with the front (rain chances less than 15 percent). Winds remains generally light, shifting from westerly ahead of the front to northerly behind the front on Sunday. No noticeable cooling associated with this front, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday. Fog will be possible again Sunday morning near the front.

The front will move offshore Monday as high pressure builds across the eastern US. This high pressure will slowly slide eastward, eventually moving offshore on Tuesday, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula through midweek. This will result in the winds shifting northeast to east on Monday and south to southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The aforementioned weak frontal boundary will move back northward across the area as a warm front. This will result in surface winds shifting southerly and temperatures becoming warmer than normal through midweek. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday will warm up to low to mid 80s by midweek. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

Thursday-Friday... A strong upper level low across the Great Lakes region on Thursday will slowly shift east and northward towards Ontario/Quebec by late week. At the surface, a stalled cold front associated with the upper level low, will be draped across the Deep South into Thursday. Surface high pressure will build across the southeast US on Thursday, pushing the front across the local area through the day. High pressure will then continue to build across the Florida peninsula behind the front through Friday. Locally, north to northwest winds on Thursday will veer north to northeast behind the front on Friday, with speeds generally 10 mph or less.

Models continue to come into better agreement with the timing of the front Thursday, with both the ECM and GFS bringing it into central Florida Thursday. However, there is some model disagreements on how much moisture will be associated with the front, with the GFS remaining the wetter solution along the boundary with a stronger high pressure building behind the front than the ECM. Have continued to lean towards ECM for rain chances into late week, with a low (20 percent) chance of rain Thanksgiving (Thursday) across the eastern half of the CWA, and 20 percent across the entire area on Friday. Temperatures will become more seasonable across the north behind the front, with temperatures remaining warmer than normal across the south. Temperatures then become slightly below normal across the north on Friday, with the south becoming more seasonable. Overnight lows will generally range from mid to upper 50s to low 60s across the north, and low to mid 60s across the south.

MARINE

Issued at 304 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today- Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Generally favorable boating conditions. High pressure centered over Florida this afternoon shifts south Saturday ahead of an approaching weakening front. The weak front pushes through Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters Sunday with little fanfare, then lifts back north as a warm from Monday, as high pressure builds over the Eastern Seaboard through midweek.

Light and variable winds this afternoon will become offshore Saturday and Sunday morning at 10 kts or less, but could still be shifty Saturday afternoon due to a weak sea breeze. Winds gradually veer through Tuesday, becoming NW-NE behind Sunday's front, then NE- E Monday, and ESE-SE Tuesday, at 5-15 kts, highest offshore. Seas 1- 3 ft. Heavy showers and lightning storms aren't expected, but some light marine showers can't be ruled out.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 625 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Another night with fog potential across portions of east central Florida. TEMPOs from 09-13Z for VIS reductions at all terminals except SUA. Higher confidence in development near MCO and ISM, so dropped conditions to IFR within the TEMPO. Elsewhere, anticipate at least MVFR VIS reductions. Winds remain light and variable to calm overnight, becoming southwesterly around 5 knots late tomorrow morning. Dry through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 59 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 62 81 62 80 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 61 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 59 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 61 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 62 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 60 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.