textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 132 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Drier air knocks afternoon rain and lightning storm chances back closer to normal through the work week.

- Temperatures creep back up going into the work week, especially Monday & Tuesday when highs reach the mid to upper 90s, bringing back widespread HeatRisk impacts and heat indices up to around 105.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Current-Tonight... Surface analysis indicates weak high pressure over the area. Light and variable winds early today has allowed an earlier development of the east coast sea breeze, already moving in vicinity of I-95 early this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated storms have initiated across northern portions of the forecast area, primarily near, north, and west of I-4. Expect increasing coverage of showers and storms through the afternoon as eastward moving convection converges with the inland moving sea breeze near or west of Orlando and southward through Lake Okeechobee. Activity should then gradually push offshore through the evening hours. Surface instability exceeding 3,000 J/Kg will allow for quick updrafts and tall storms, especially along boundary collisions. Updrafts mixing a dry layer above 700mb will allow for isolated downburst winds of 40-50 mph. Frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy downpours will also accompany any stronger storms.

Mostly dry conditions are forecast overnight once activity pushes offshore. Looking into the late overnight and early morning hours, HREF guidance may suggest low probabilities (20-30%) for fog development. Must acknowledge the presence of a modeled surface inversion within RAP and GFS sounding profiles. However, given seasonal trends in fog, shallow ground fog seams most reasonable at this time. Will continue to monitor trends through the evening. Overnight lows remain muggy, mostly in the mid 70s.

Monday-Tuesday... A mid level trough slowly slides across the eastern U.S. accompanied by multiple waves of shortwave energy. A mid level ridge holds over central Florida with its axis over south Florida. The ridge should keep the larger "troughy" pattern north of the local area, although occasional pulses of vorticity may still pass aloft. At the surface, a loose area of high pressure will maintain a weak ridge axis near or over south Florida. Weak west- southwest flow should continue to favor a west coast sea breeze regime with a slower moving east coast sea breeze. Drier air should keep lower rain chances than what has been seen recently, and the best chances should reside near, east, and south of Orlando (~30%) each afternoon and evening. Models may also hint at slightly better coverage in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee on Tuesday (~40-50%). Above normal temperatures are forecast, mostly ranging the low to mid 90s along the coast and mid 90s across the interior. Ensemble probabilities may even suggest a moderate chance (40-60%) for temperatures to reach the upper 90s (>=97F) near, north, and west of I-4, especially on Tuesday. At this time, drier air looks to keep peak heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria, but trends will be monitored. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is expected each day, and this level of heat will impact those without adequate cooling and hydration.

Wednesday-Saturday... A troughing pattern continues over the eastern U.S. and a cold front sags into portions of the southeast midweek. Despite some weakening of the mid level ridge Wednesday and Thursday, the area of high pressure should remain established locally, keeping the front north of central Florida. Building moisture south of the front should increase rain chances through the second half of the week. A more summerlike pattern of scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms (~40-50%) is forecast areawide each day. Outside of convection, hot and humid conditions will persist. Highs continue to mostly range the low to mid 90s along the coast and mid 90s across the interior. A widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast with Major HeatRisk impacts becoming focused across the Orlando Metro and portions of the I-95 corridor through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 229 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Favorable boating conditions continue outside of lightning storms. Weak high pressure remains southeast of the local waters and will continue to promote light west-southwinds of 10 kts or less. A daily sea breeze pattern should shift winds east-southeast in the afternoon and evenings, increasing to 10-15 kts at times. Seas of 1- 2 ft should persist. Scattered coverage of offshore moving storms continues this afternoon and evening, with lowering rain chances Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 132 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Conditions will mostly remain VFR through this morning. HREF guidance indicating some low probabilities (at or below 30%) for patchy fog development toward daybreak. However, not much agreement overall in the model guidance to include in the TAFs at this time. Some drier air moving in will lead to lower shower and storm chances this afternoon (~20-30%), with greatest potential for convection along boundary collision focused across the interior later in the day. Have still kept VCTS for all terminals (mostly between 19-01Z), but not enough confidence for any tempo groups at this time.

Lighter S/SW winds around 5-7 knots will develop into the morning. The east coast sea breeze will form into the late morning and early afternoon, switching winds to the E/SE around 8-10 knots at the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 75 94 75 / 30 10 20 10 MCO 96 76 95 76 / 30 20 20 10 MLB 92 77 92 76 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 92 76 93 76 / 20 10 20 20 LEE 95 76 95 76 / 20 0 10 10 SFB 96 76 96 76 / 30 20 20 10 ORL 95 77 95 76 / 30 20 20 10 FPR 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.