textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- Rain chances rise today, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing into the afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be possible.

- Breezy to windy conditions develop behind a passing front Saturday afternoon and continue through the weekend into early next week. Wind Advisories are likely. - Dangerous boating conditions, high surf, and moderate beach erosion are expected behind the front this weekend and into next week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Today-Tonight...A cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. today pushing high pressure north of the area farther east. Winds weaken and will be somewhat variable today, with the east coast sea breeze developing into the afternoon and winds along the coast becoming onshore and increasing to 5-10 mph. Moisture continues to build northward across the area with PW values around 2.0" across the area today. This will lead to greater rain chances today (around 50-70%), with scattered showers and storms developing primarily into the afternoon and evening. However isolated to scattered coastal showers will be possible this morning. Temps remain relatively warm aloft (around -6C at 500mb), but there will be some pockets of drier air aloft, with DCAPE values around 500-800 J/kg that may still lead to a few stronger storms today. Main threats will be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts to 40-45 mph and heavy downpours. Slow storm motion toward the N-NE and moist airmass in place may lead to locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches from any storms or heavier showers. This may lead to mostly minor flooding, but with saturated ground conditions can't completely rule out an isolated instance of flash flooding. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall exits across much of the area today.

Temperatures will be above normal, ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to upper 80s/low 90s inland. More humid conditions today will also produce peak heat index values around 98-102F. Warm and muggy conditions continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Thursday...Cold front pushes southward through the area Saturday, with north-northeast winds becoming breezy to windy into the afternoon. Sustained winds look to increase to 15-20 mph inland and up to 20-25 mph along the coast, with gusts up to 30-35 mph. While a Wind Advisory for portions of the coast can't be completely ruled out for Saturday afternoon, better potential exists along the coast into Saturday night and across much of the area Sunday, as northeast winds increase further from tightening pressure gradient between strong high building in north of the stalled front south of the area. Gusts up to 35-40 mph (potentially slightly higher along the coast) will be possible. A tight pressure gradient will continue through early to middle portion of next week, as cut-off low develops a strong area of low pressure offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, maintaining breezy to windy NE winds across the region. This prolonged period of increased onshore flow, will lead to hazardous coastal conditions. Rough surf, large breaking waves, and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents will be present at all area beaches. Entering the water is highly discouraged! Long period onshore swells will also likely contribute to moderate beach erosion through multiple high tide cycles.

High coverage of showers and isolated to scattered storms will continue into Saturday with the passing front, with highest rain chances southeast of the I-4 corridor. As flow veers onshore persistent shower bands or storms may still lead to a risk of flooding, mainly along the Treasure Coast into Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall persists for this region tomorrow. Drier air works in behind the front lowering PW values below 1.5" by Sunday, but the strong NE breeze will still generate rounds of scattered onshore moving showers Sunday and through much of next week, with greatest potential for rain across the coastal counties. A few storms pushing onshore will also be possible, mainly south of the Cape.

It will turn cooler behind the front into the weekend with highs falling as low as the the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday and Monday, and then some gradual warming is forecast. Overnight lows drop into the 60s, but along the immediate coast the stronger NE breeze may keep min temps in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions continue through tonight before this weekend's cold frontal passage. Onshore winds weaken today as high pressure north of the region continues eastward ahead of the approaching front. Wind speeds diminish to 5-10 knots today, with wind direction veering to the S/SW into tonight. Seas will remain around 2-3 feet. Onshore moving scattered showers and isolated storms will continue south of the Cape through early this morning, with coverage increasing and building northward over the coastal waters past sunrise. A few offshore moving storms producing gusty winds and occasional to frequent lightning strikes will also be possible into the afternoon/evening.

Saturday-Tuesday...Cold front pushes southward across the waters Saturday, with rapidly deteriorating conditions behind the boundary. N/NE winds quickly increase to 20-30 knots behind the front, with frequent gusts to gale force likely. A Gale Watch has been issued across the Volusia County waters starting at 11 AM Saturday and expands to the Brevard waters at 2 PM tomorrow afternoon. Gale conditions then make take a longer time to work their way southward into the Treasure Coast waters (maybe not until late Saturday night/Sunday), so for now have issued a Small Craft Advisory for this portion of the waters starting late afternoon Saturday. A strong NE breeze then persists Sunday into at least Monday, with frequent gusts to gale force forecast to continue. Seas also quickly build behind the front to 10-15 feet through Saturday night, with seas remaining elevated around these heights through early next week.

High coverage of showers and storms will continue into Saturday, with repeated rounds of gusty scattered showers pushing southwest across the waters and onshore behind the front through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A few storms will continue to be possible as well behind the front, mainly south of the Cape.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Lingering showers across coast from Cape Canaveral southward tonight, with additional showers across the Atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers will continue across the Atlantic waters through tonight, with some showers making it along the coast, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. Have lingering VCSH/VCTS from VRB southward through tonight. Otherwise, mostly dry elsewhere, with light ESE winds at the terminals overnight. Winds become more variable across the interior Friday, while the ECSB causes winds to remain out of the ESE along the coast. Have maintained VCSH/VCTS at coastal terminals after 17Z, expanding to the interior sites after 18Z. Confidence remains too low to include TEMPOS/PROB30s at this time, but will continue to evaluate next TAF package. Lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the area after 01Z across the interior, and after 04Z along the coast. Winds will then become light and variable Friday evening and overnight, remaining ESE along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 87 71 79 66 / 60 40 40 10 MCO 91 74 81 67 / 70 40 40 10 MLB 87 72 83 69 / 70 50 70 40 VRB 88 72 85 69 / 70 50 80 60 LEE 90 72 78 63 / 40 20 30 10 SFB 90 73 80 66 / 70 40 30 10 ORL 90 74 81 67 / 70 40 40 10 FPR 88 72 85 69 / 70 50 80 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for AMZ550-570.

Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575.