textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Daily afternoon shower and storm development is forecast across east central Florida through this weekend and into next week.

- Storm hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3".

- Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Today-Tonight...Deep mid-level troughing remains in place across the eastern US today, with a shortwave positioned across north Florida being absorbed into the broader pattern. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of east central Florida as a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US drifts farther south towards Florida. Locally, light southwest winds are forecast through this morning, with winds becoming more southeasterly along the coast this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and attempts to push inland. The sea breeze will struggle due to prevailing southwest winds aloft. A plume of moisture will generally remain in place locally, but Saharan dust will work through the mid and upper levels, with PWATs trending slightly lower in the 1.8-2.0" range. There is still a 30-40% chance of showers and storms today despite the drier air being a limiting factor to development, with energy aloft and the sea breezes potentially providing enough support. Coverage is favored to increase after 2 PM, with activity pushing towards the coast thanks to the aforementioned southwest steering flow. Adequate daytime heating will increase instability, drier air aloft will support stronger downdrafts (DCAPE 1000 J/kg+), and cooler 500mb temperatures (-7C) will increase the potential for hail. This means the main hazards for today with convective development will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph (with a low chance for severe wind gusts), small hail, and heavy downpours with rainfall accumulations of 1-3" possible. The best chances for showers and storms remain focused along the coast. Activity will push offshore and across the local Atlantic waters late this evening into the overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions across the peninsula.

Another day of high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s across east central Florida, with peak heat indices remaining just below advisory criteria in the 102F to 107F range. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors and as always, children and pets should never be left alone in vehicles for any period of time. Temperatures overnight will remain near-normal in the mid-70s.

Sunday-Monday...The mid-level trough begins to weaken towards the end of this weekend and into Monday, with the potential for a couple additional shortwaves moving towards the Florida peninsula. The pattern will remain fairly consistent into Sunday, with the surface boundary remaining draped across the southeastern US. However, the weakening of the trough will result in the surface boundary shifting northward by Monday, with the Atlantic ridge axis anticipated to also begin lifting north back towards the Florida peninsula. Southwesterly winds persist on Sunday, shifting more southerly on Monday. The typical diurnal summertime pattern persists with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across east central Florida as the sea breezes develop, though drier air aloft may act to limit convective development, especially on Monday. Lightning strikes, wind gusts to 55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours will be possible on Sunday, with lower confidence in the hail potential on Monday as mid-level temperatures trend a degree or two warmer. Activity timing will favor the afternoon and early evening hours each day, with showers and storms diminishing into the overnight hours. Isolated development across the local Atlantic waters will be possible overnight, with dry conditions across the peninsula. Temperatures will remain near-normal through the remainder of this weekend and into Monday, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Peak heat indices will continue to range from 102F to 107F.

Tuesday-Friday...Weak mid-level troughing will remain in place across the eastern US into next week, with a series of shortwaves traveling around the main trough and digging southward into Florida. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis continues to establish itself across the Florida peninsula, with the return of predominantly southerly flow advecting moisture towards the peninsula. The energy aloft from the passing shortwaves coupled with the daily afternoon sea breeze development will result in a return of near-normal shower and storm chances across east central Florida, with PoPs ranging between 30-40% on Tuesday and 40-70% Wednesday onward. All of the typical summertime storm hazards will be possible, including lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Following the usual diurnal trend, activity is anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours each day, with mostly dry conditions overnight. Outside of shower and storm chances, temperatures across east central Florida will remain right around normal values through next week. Humidity will continue to push peak heat indices well above 100F, though most guidance suggest values remaining below advisory criteria. This will continue to be closely monitored. Regardless, residents and visitors should plan to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat-related illness.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the local waters. The Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the local waters this weekend, keeping winds generally out of the southwest. By Monday, the axis lifts northward and will remain draped across the waters, resulting in winds shifting to out of the south. The development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon will cause winds to become more southeasterly, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are anticipated to remain between 1 to 3 feet, highest across the offshore waters.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the local waters through the afternoon and evening hours as activity from the peninsula pushes offshore. Storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, small hail, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. While conditions are forecast to trend drier through the overnight hours, some isolated development across the Gulf Stream waters cannot be fully ruled out each night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 723 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

No significant changes from previous TAF package. Still expecting a quiet morning before we see another round of scattered afternoon and early-evening storms. Weak sea breeze hugging the coast and diffuse Gulf breeze should be foci for the convection late in the day. Continued PROB30s that were inherited primarily from 21z to around 1z. Wind gusts exceeding 35 kt will be the primary hazard today as downburst potential seems substantial due to dry air aloft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 94 75 92 75 / 40 20 30 10 MCO 95 76 93 76 / 30 20 40 10 MLB 94 76 93 76 / 40 30 40 10 VRB 93 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 10 LEE 93 75 91 75 / 30 10 40 10 SFB 94 76 92 76 / 40 20 40 10 ORL 95 77 93 77 / 30 20 40 10 FPR 92 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.