textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Another cycle of minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected this morning. Do not drive your vehicle into salt water. Follow local officials' advice to avoid flooded areas.

- Dangerous conditions will persist at our beaches through the weekend. Rough surf and numerous rip currents exist along our entire shoreline, and significant erosion has occurred. Stay out of the ocean. Mariners should reconsider Atlantic boating due to gusty winds and 5 to 10 ft seas.

- Onshore flow continues through the weekend. Scattered showers and gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph are forecast. The threat of locally excessive rain may increase from late Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Flat mid-level ridging continues to extend from the Gulf into the Southeast U.S. this morning. A quasi-zonal polar jet extends over the northern U.S. A weak area of low pressure sits over the Bahamas, to the south of a sprawling surface high over the Appalachians. A persistent pressure gradient, responsible for the long duration of fresh northeasterly flow over the Florida Peninsula, remains in place. PWAT (moisture) values are still slightly above normal for late October.

A weak mid-level ridge axis is forecast to move over Florida late this week, nudging the low farther east and away from the Bahamas. Behind a jet streak passing over the Great Lakes, another impressive continental high should be summoned from the Northern Plains, reaching the Mid-Atlantic states by Saturday night. This will keep a pressure gradient over Florida through at least early Monday.

Associated with the subtropical jet, a disorganized pocket of vorticity currently sits over northern Mexico. Ensemble guidance suggests this energy will move toward the east, reaching Florida by Sunday. Expect some interaction with the persistent onshore flow and moisture; nearly half of the 28/12Z grand ensemble suggests this outcome.

Mid-level heights are forecast to rise through the middle of next week, with onshore surface flow continuing but slowly relaxing. Attention then turns to another disturbance within the subtropical jet late next week. The latest ensemble clusters show a trough reaching the Southeast by around next Thursday. Its cold front may reach the state just beyond the 7-day forecast period, with unsettled conditions potentially returning at that time.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Saturday...

Persistence has been the key to the forecast, and we don't see any wholesale changes as we end the week. We will continue to have coastal and marine hazards, along with breezy to windy conditions and periodic showers coming off of the Atlantic.

The highest water levels of this prolonged event appear to be behind us. This month's king tides begin to diminish as we move past the full moon. While still gusty, the wind-driven surge lessens a bit as well. However, minor to moderate coastal flooding remains likely today, with gradual improvement expected over the next several high-tide cycles. Peak water levels are anticipated from mid to late morning before decreasing through the afternoon. Our Coastal Flood Warning is set to be replaced by a Coastal Flood Advisory at 2 PM today.

We will keep the High Surf Advisory through this evening as breakers up to 7 feet remain possible. With numerous rip currents, interrupted sand bars, erosion, and rough surf, we strongly recommend that residents and visitors stay out of the ocean and be very careful if venturing to our beaches!

Scattered showers remain in the forecast, with a low chance (<25%) for lightning. A few gusts of 30-35 mph may accompany the heavier showers. Shower coverage is expected to ramp up on Saturday, and we will need to monitor for any bands of heavy rain that develop, especially south of Melbourne.

Outside of any rain, we still forecast occasional wind gusts of 20-30 mph. More breaks of sun are expected, so high temps will warm back into the low/mid 80s.

Sunday - Monday...

The setup appears favorable for an uptick in rain and even isolated (20%) lightning coverage. Statistical guidance has already increased rain chances to 60-80% on Sunday. The deep onshore flow combined with modest upper jet diffluence is at least somewhat concerning for the potential of locally heavy rain. This may lead to flooding of poorly drained areas, especially along the coast on Sunday.

The slow-moving feature begins to exit into the Atlantic on Monday, but the onshore flow and lingering moisture should provide above-normal coverage of showers.

Meanwhile, beach conditions are likely to remain hazardous. A slight uptick in onshore flow may be enough for us to need another High Surf Advisory for a portion of this period. Either way, life-threatening rip currents and rough surf are expected to persist.

Tuesday - next Thursday...

Onshore flow should begin to relax as high pressure nudges over the peninsula. This allows rain chances to decrease to 20-30% for the middle of next week. As mentioned in the overview, the next signal is a subtropical jet stream disturbance that reaches the Southeast U.S. by around next Thursday. Its front may approach the area by late next Thursday or Friday (11/6), giving us our next chance for at least scattered showers and storms. High temps should remain warm, in the low/mid 80s.

It's far too early to tell whether the front late next week poses a threat for strong to severe storms. However, the overall pattern suggests an enhanced subtropical jet developing as we head deeper into November. This is in line with expectations from a strong El Nino, and it is a key component to the periods of active weather we expect to see this upcoming winter.

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist over the local Atlantic waters of Central Florida through at least the upcoming weekend. A weak low will move away from the Bahamas over the next couple of days. However, another strong area of high pressure will drift toward the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. This will keep moderate to fresh onshore winds in place. Scattered to, at times, numerous showers are forecast.

NE winds 15-20 kt through Friday, with seas 5-10 ft. Winds turn ENE on Saturday, then ESE on Sunday, 20-25 kt both days. Seas 6-10 ft this weekend. Intracoastal and inshore waterways very choppy to rough.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers. Expect off and on showers through the TAF period with ENE flow in place. TAFs begin with ENE winds at 8kts-12kts with gusts up to 15kts-18kts before increasing after 14Z with gusts up to 18kts-25kts. TEMPO and PROB30 groups exist for MVFR CIGs/VIS between 15Z-19Z at the TAF sites except KLEE and KISM, as well as at KFPR between 06Z-07Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 81 71 81 72 / 50 30 50 10 MCO 84 72 85 72 / 30 10 30 0 MLB 83 72 83 73 / 50 40 50 30 VRB 85 72 85 73 / 50 40 50 30 LEE 84 69 84 70 / 30 10 20 10 SFB 84 72 84 72 / 40 30 40 10 ORL 84 72 85 72 / 30 20 30 0 FPR 84 72 84 73 / 50 40 50 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141- 154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.