textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all east central Florida counties through 8 PM for peak heat indices of 108F to 112F. Practice heat safety!

- Heat will remain a concern across east central Florida over the next several days as afternoon highs near records in some spots across the interior and peak heat indices near or exceed Heat Advisory criteria.

- Below normal rain and storm chances are forecast to persist into early next week due to drier air aloft from Saharan dust. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes and strong, gusty winds.

- Increasing moisture Tuesday onward will result in a return of near-normal rain and storm chances across east central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Current-Tonight... Scattered showers and storms which developed across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast are spreading into portions of Brevard and Osceola counties this afternoon. Despite slightly drier air further north, light southerly steering flow should continue to shift isolated to scattered coverage towards the Orlando Metro into the evening. The presence of dry air (DCAPE ~800-1,000 J/kg) and winds aloft (40kts @ 32,000 ft) will allow for a few stronger storms capable of downburst wind gusts 40-55 mph and frequent lightning. Quick rainfall accumulations of 2-3" will also be possible in stronger storms. Ahead of showers and storms, conditions remain hot and humid as temperatures climb through the 90s, and a Heat Advisory continues through 8 PM. Dry conditions are forecast overnight with low temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday... A mid to upper level ridge holds over the southern U.S. while surface high pressure extends over the Florida peninsula. A layer of dry air modeled above 700mb will keep rain chances well below normal with low rain chances (~20%) mostly limited to areas from Brevard and Osceola counties northward. With little relief from afternoon showers and storms, expect hot conditions and above normal temperatures to continue. Highs are forecast mostly in the mid to upper 90s across the interior while the sea breeze may be able to hold some locations along the immediate coast in the low 90s. Despite some mixing down of dry air aloft, peak heat index values should top out near to above Heat Advisory criteria (108F) once again. Continue to practice heat safety and stay hydrated!

Monday-Friday... High pressure broadens aloft into mid week as a trough digs across Canada and into the northern U.S. Higher moisture gradually slides southward through the period as a surface boundary sinks into the southeast U.S. Isolated to scattered rain chances (20- 50%) build southward through portions of Brevard and Osceola on Monday, with a seasonal pattern of afternoon and evening storms (~40- 60%) forecast to return areawide by mid to late week. Outside of showers and storms, above normal temperatures should persist. While still abnormally hot, the greatest heat impacts may begin to slowly subside late week as troughing begins to dig through the central and eastern U.S.

MARINE

Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

High pressure maintains control with favorable boating conditions forecast into next week. Light offshore winds shift south to southeast each afternoon and evening as the sea breeze develops, mostly remaining 12 kts or less. Seas of 1-2 ft persist, building up to 3 ft across portions of the offshore waters Monday and Tuesday. Drier air should limit shower and storm chances Sunday with coverage of offshore moving showers and storms then gradually rebuilding each day into mid next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue through mid/late afternoon, mainly near to south/inland of KMLB. Otherwise, additional SHRA/TSRA development is forecast to remain isolated farther north and inland of KMLB through late afternoon and through sunset. With rain chances remaining rather low (20-30%) for most locations, continue to only include VCTS for most sites that run through 00Z for inland TAF sites and 22Z for most coastal sites (except DAB). Convection is forecast to diminish this evening, with dry conditions overnight.

Winds will remain mostly light and variable (~5 knots), increasing to 8-10 knots out of the E/SE behind the inland moving sea breeze.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites this weekend:

Site Aug 15 Aug 16 Daytona 97 (2023) 97 (2023) Leesburg 96 (1984) 96 (2011) Sanford 97 (1999) 97 (2023) Orlando 98 (1938) 101 (1918) Melbourne 98 (1963) 96 (2022) Vero Beach 95 (1993) 96 (2022) Fort Pierce 97 (1929) 97 (1948)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 94 77 94 / 10 20 10 60 MCO 78 97 78 96 / 10 20 10 20 MLB 78 94 78 95 / 0 20 10 20 VRB 76 93 77 95 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 79 96 78 94 / 10 10 10 50 SFB 78 96 78 95 / 10 20 10 50 ORL 79 96 79 96 / 10 20 10 30 FPR 77 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.