textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast: Avoid flooded roads, and do not walk or wade through floodwater!

- Low rain chances (around 20-30%) through this evening, with mostly dry conditions forecast from Thursday through the weekend. High temperatures will remain very warm through Friday reaching the mid 80s.

- A High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues today at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the ocean.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Currently-Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a storm or two will develop through early this evening, mainly across the interior with a diffuse inland moving east coast sea breeze. However, rain chances remain on the low side (around 20-30%). Into tonight, a weak onshore flow may still be able to generate a few showers that can reach the coast, mainly south of the Cape. There are some low probabilities (30% or less) for patchy fog to develop late tonight across the interior as onshore winds weaken, and have added it to the forecast from around Orlando area north. Should any fog form, visibilities will improve past daybreak Thursday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. Thursday-Friday...Weak front moving into the southeast U.S. late this week will weaken the influence of the area of high pressure offshore the eastern U.S. seaboard. This will decrease onshore winds across the region, with E/NE winds on Thursday only around 5-10 mph and then winds will become somewhat light and variable into Friday. Drier air gradually moves in, with mostly rain-free conditions forecast through late week. There may be a few showers that can still develop mainly near to northwest of the I-4 corridor. However, most areas look to remain dry, which will help floodwaters across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast to continue to gradually recede. However, residents and visitors should continue to avoid any flooded roadways and remain out of any lingering floodwaters.

Highs will remain warmer than normal in the mid 80s through late week, with overnight lows mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday-Tuesday...A weak cool front pushes through Central Florida into Saturday. Moisture with this boundary remains limited and therefore looks to be a mostly dry frontal passage. Winds shift out of the north-northwest Saturday and then gradually veer onshore through late weekend into early next week as high pressure builds in behind this boundary. The forecast keeps rain chances rather low (10- 20%) through much of the period, but there is increasing uncertainty in the overall pattern into early next week as significant differences remain between the models. The GFS still shows a robust cut-off low aloft across the southern U.S shifting east, developing an area of low pressure over the Gulf. This system moves NE and pushes a cold front (leading to wetter/stormier conditions) across the area on Tuesday. However, the ECMWF and Canadian models keeps the mid level feature weaker, delaying any rain chances until the middle of next week. Currently the forecast leans toward the ECMWF/Canadian, but will have to continue to monitor trends in future model runs. Temperatures trend cooler, closer to more normal values for this time of year by late weekend into early next week, with highs in the upper 70 to low 80s and lows in the 60s (potentially upper 50s NW of I-4).

MARINE

Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Tonight-Thursday...Boating conditions will continue to improve and become generally favorable tonight into Thursday. However, through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, small craft will need to continue to exercise caution offshore for lingering seas up to 6 feet. Otherwise, E/NE winds will persist across the waters around 5-10 knots, with seas around 3-5 feet. Conditions will remain mostly dry, but can't rule out a few showers developing in the onshore flow pushing westward and onshore, mainly south of the Cape.

Friday-Monday...A weak front approaches and eventually moves across the waters into Saturday, with weaker and somewhat variable winds on Friday becoming N/NW up to 10-15 knots Saturday into Saturday night. Winds veer to the NE on Sunday and are forecast to remain onshore into early next week as high pressure builds in behind the front. Seas remain around 3-5 feet on Friday, but a building swell and northerly winds behind the front are forecast to build seas to 6 feet offshore into the weekend, producing poor boating conditions. Frontal passage will be mostly dry, but may see isolated showers develop, especially over the offshore waters.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1238 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period outside of any showers. VCSH is forecast at KMCO/KSFB/KISM/KLEE after 19Z. Expect east-southeast winds at 5kts-10kts with gusts up to 18kts at times to weaken tonight after 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 68 84 67 84 / 10 10 0 20 MCO 69 86 69 86 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 71 83 69 84 / 10 10 0 10 VRB 71 85 69 85 / 20 10 0 10 LEE 69 86 69 86 / 10 20 10 20 SFB 69 87 69 86 / 10 10 0 20 ORL 69 86 68 86 / 10 10 0 20 FPR 70 84 69 84 / 20 10 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.