textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 103 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Somewhat cooler today across northern portions of Central Florida behind a cold front.

- A warming trend commences for the work week, with many inland spots reaching the lower 80s by Tuesday or Wednesday.

- Wetting rain is unlikely for most places through at least next Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Early this Sunday morning, guidance initialized a weak shortwave over N FL and GA. Its surface reflection consists of a 1010 mb low-pressure center south of Cape Hatteras and a weak cold front extending from the parent low to the NE Gulf. PW values have jumped to around 1.50", with moisture largely confined to the lower troposphere. Rather poor lapse rates were noted on the 03/23Z XMR sounding, resulting in little instability. As the shortwave moves into the W Atlantic, it is forecast to drag the cold front through the area today while undergoing frontolysis. By Monday, a diffuse pocket of PVA in the quasi-zonal flow may transit over N FL or the adjacent Atlantic.

Elsewhere across N America this morning, broad ridging was centered over the Great Plains, a blocking ridge was still over Greenland, and a pair of shortwaves were approaching the Pacific coast. Over the coming week, this Pacific energy is likely to nudge the ridge over the American Heartland eastward. Mid-level heights quickly build over the state, with a stout ~590 dam H5 ridge expected over the SE Gulf and Florida Straits by around Friday. At the surface, continental high pressure drifts offshore the Carolinas early in the week, with its axis extending back toward Central Florida for much of the workweek. A common producer of January "thaws", the quasi-zonal jet stream over the Continental U.S. will spread modified Pacific air over much of the nation. Florida should reside on the southern periphery of this large reservoir of above- normal temperatures. Moisture values hold close to dry-season norms through at least Friday. Confidence in this forecast evolution is high: the 03/12Z ensemble cluster analysis revealed broad agreement with the expected pattern over the Southeast U.S. through the end of this workweek.

By next weekend, differences quickly appear as the suite bifurcates on the speed with which a longwave trough enters the Eastern U.S. These timing disagreements are most stark between the AI-EPS and AI-GEFS, with the AI-GEFS some 12-24 hours quicker with the next cold frontal passage over Florida. The culprit may be how the guidance handles the phasing of the northern stream with ejecting subtropical energy over the Four Corners late this work week. Once the front passes, most guidance supports the return of negative temperature anomalies across the Southeast U.S. early next week.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Now - Tonight...

A band of showers, now south of Melbourne, will continue a dissipating trend overnight as it moves southward. This activity is outrunning the front, which will work its way into our northern counties prior to daybreak. Immediately ahead of the front, we anticipate at least patchy fog development along and north of the I-4 corridor. This fog should dissipate by mid-morning.

The slow movement and weakening nature of the front will cause quite a spread in sensible weather from north to south today. Over the I-4 corridor, low clouds are favored through at least early/mid afternoon, with a very low chance for a brief shower or sprinkles in the morning. South of Orlando to Titusville, expect cloud cover to break up earlier in the day with less cold advection. Highs should range from the mid-upper 60s around Daytona Beach to the upper 70s close to Lake Okeechobee. Trended slightly below statistical guidance across the north due to lingering cloud cover.

Quiet conditions are forecast tonight with seasonable 50s.

Work Week...

Quiet conditions and a warming trend are the main themes of the forecast for the first full work week of the new year. The only wild card comes on Monday when a weak pocket of energy passes nearby, perhaps sparking a few showers in the Atlantic that may skirt the coastline (<20%).

Beneath plentiful sun and a few clouds, temperatures should readily jump above normal as we near the "heart" of Florida winter. Highs range from the upper 70s to low 80s each day, warmest inland. Statistical guidance still indicates a 25% chance of at least tying the record on Friday at Orlando (84F) and a 40% chance at Leesburg (82F).

Some patchy fog is possible in the late night and early morning hours each day.

Next Weekend & Beyond...

As mentioned, confidence quickly slips as guidance differs on the timing of a cold front approaching the state. Whenever the front decides to get down here, the setup looks unfavorable for widespread wetting rain.

Most ensemble members keep Saturday on the warm side, likely reaching the low 80s in many spots. Statistical guidance then shows a large interquartile temperature spread by Sunday, and the deterministic forecast has trended cooler. There is a degree of consensus that much cooler temperatures could return early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 103 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

A cold front settles into the local Atlantic today while weakening. Winds turn northerly, then quickly northeasterly by tonight as high pressure pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Through the workweek, the axis of high pressure should remain very close to Central Florida. Boating conditions will improve and be favorable for much of the coming week. A few showers remain possible through at least Monday as moisture lingers behind the front.

Seas 2-3 FT nearshore, up to 4-5 FT in the Gulf Stream through Monday as winds turn NNW to N around 15 KT by this afternoon, then generally becoming NE/E 5-12 KT on Monday afternoon. Seas subside across all of the local waters to 2-3 FT from late Tuesday through Wednesday, then further to 1-2 FT by Thursday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 103 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Pre-frontal SHRA will continue to diminish overnight. A weak cold front is currently located from JAX-PFY and pushing southward. The primary impact will VLIFR CIGs and patchy fog developing across northern terminals (MCO/SFB/DAB) through 09Z. IFR/MVFR cigs are forecast farther south along the coast and onset a little later toward sunrise. Importantly, the stratus will be slow to lift, especially across MCO and points northward where sub-VFR conds are forecast through at least 17Z and possibly longer. Conditions are forecast to return to VFR by late afternoon. The S/SW flow currently will veer N/NW behind the front into Sunday, with speeds increasing to 8-11 knots in the afternoon. Looking ahead, another round of stratus and patchy fog is forecast at MCO Mon morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 66 56 74 56 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 72 57 77 59 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 73 58 76 58 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 74 58 77 57 / 10 10 20 10 LEE 68 53 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 68 55 76 57 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 70 56 77 59 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 75 57 77 57 / 10 10 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for AMZ570-572-575.