textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Preparations for multiple nights of hard freezes should be completed this morning, before strong and gusty winds arrive this afternoon. Be sure tarps, blankets, or wrappings protecting plants and pipes from the cold are well secured.

- A Wind Advisory has been issued from 3 PM this afternoon through 7 AM Sunday morning for winds frequently gusting 35 to 45 mph and occasionally over 50 mph. Winds gradually diminish Sunday, but breezy/gusty conditions will continue much of the day.

- A Freeze Warning and a rare Extreme Cold Warning have been issued for all of east central Florida tonight into Sunday morning. Dangerous wind chill values 9 to 15 degrees and a hard freeze with low temperatures in the 20s Sunday morning. Additional watches/warnings for the following nights will be needed.

- A Gale Warning has been issued for rapidly deteriorating and dangerous boating conditions this afternoon and tonight as winds increase and seas build; strong gale-force gusts are likely. Mariners should remain in port. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger into early next week, and followup Small Craft Advisories and caution statements are likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Today-Tonight...Strong winds today precede historic cold tonight. A low pressure system currently centered over Georgia supported by a substantial upper-level trough will rapidly deepen as it pushes offshore the Southeast seaboard. The attendant cold front will pass quickly through Florida early this morning, departing to the southeast shortly after sunrise. Moisture recovery ahead of this front is pretty dismal, with the highest PWATs only reaching around 1.1" across the southern counties and values less than 1" to the north, but substantial upper level forcing from the trough aloft looks to capitalize what little moisture is available, and support a broad bands of light elevated showers pushing across the area through the morning and maybe into the early afternoon. A few additional passing bands of light showers will also be possible through the afternoon and evening. However, deep convection is unlikely, and lightning storms are not forecast. In fact, much of the expected shower activity will struggle to reach the surface. Rainfall amounts forecast at generally 0.1" or less, but a few areas down south could see up to 0.2", and there is a very outside chance for up to 0.5" in a lucky spot or two.

The primary impact during the day will be strong and gusty winds as the pressure gradient tightens across the area behind the front, between the rapidly deepening low just off the southeastern seaboard and arctic high pressure diving down the Central US. West-northwesterly winds will quickly increase through the morning, reaching 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph by the early afternoon, and further increasing to 20-30 mph with frequent gusts 35-45 mph from mid-afternoon into the early overnight. There is a 30-50% chance for occasional gusts over 50 mph. Winds inland will begin to diminish after midnight, decreasing to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, but occasional gusts to 40 mph will remain possible, especially along the coast and across the Orlando Metro Area. Winds over the Atlantic waters will continue to increase through the first half of the night, with sustained winds reaching over 30 mph and gusts 40-50 mph, but the offshore component will keep the worst of these winds over the waters. A Wind Advisory has been issued from 3 PM this afternoon through 7 AM Sunday morning. Preparations for multiple nights of freezing temperatures should be completed this morning.

Bitterly cold wind chills during the day will become dangerous tonight. While the front will have cleared the area by morning, the coldest air won't arrive until later in the day when strong cold air advection on the western side of the low brings a slug of arctic air to Florida. Temperatures only top out in the M50s-M60s between 2-3 PM, before plummeting to the L40-M50s by sunset, with sub freezing temperatures overspreading most of the area by midnight. A hard freeze is forecast for all of East Central Florida for much of the night and Sunday morning as temperatures bottom out at record setting lows in in the L-M20s for most of the area. The southern coast will be spared some, with lows in the M-U20s and hard freeze lasting for generally 2-4 hours compared to the better part of the night and morning for the rest of the area. Forecast lows are 5-10 degrees below daily records for most locations, and threatening the coldest temperatures for the month of February for all but Orlando. Combined with the strong and gusty northwest winds, wind chills drop into the 20-30s shortly after sunset, bottoming out in the teens and approaching single digits late tonight and Sunday morning. A Freeze Warning and the first Extreme Cold Warning issued for all of East Central Florida since December 2010 remains in effect from 7 PM this evening through 1 PM Sunday.

People and pets with inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected.

Sunday-Monday...Two more nights of freezes are expected early next week, including another hard freeze for most of the area Sunday night into Monday morning. The now significant low pressure system centered off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard will continue lifting northeast as trailing Arctic high pressure drops into the Gulf Sunday, then shifts towards Florida Monday. Winds gradually relax, but Sunday will start off blustery with northwesterly winds 15-20 mph gusting to 35 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon. Despite winds starting to relent, very cold daytime temperatures only topping out in the M40-L50s (ranging from a couple to nearly 10 degrees below daily record "cool highs") will result in wind chills in the 20-30s in the morning, and 30-40s in the afternoon. Temperatures drop back into the M20s-L30s Sunday night into Monday morning, which combined with a now gentle 5-10 mph overnight breeze, will push wind chills into the teens-L20s for several hours.

Gradual warming starts Monday, but at least some parts of the area are likely to see one more night of freezing temperatures, and the other parts frost. Afternoon highs will finally make it into the 50s with a continued 5-10 mph northwesterly breeze. A complicated arrangement of freezing temperatures and frost is currently depicted for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Most interior rural and even suburban areas are forecast for lows to drop to or below freezing in the U20-L30s, while the coastal corridor, Orlando urban core, and Martin county are forecast to fall short in the M30s-40. However, winds are forecast to finally become light, making most of these spots that will fall short of freezing temperatures susceptible to frost. Thus, all residents of East Central Florida should continue to take action to protect sensitive plants this night.

Tuesday-Friday...The center of the high pressure moving from the Gulf towards Florida makes it pretty much right overhead early Tuesday, then continues shifting eastward and offshore ahead of the next weather system developing over the Southeast. Gradual warming and dry conditions continue through midweek, with highs reaching the 60s Tuesday and U60s-L70s (near normal) Wednesday. While lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are forecast to finally be above freezing, generally in the M30s-L40s, frost will continue to be a concern for locations where temperatures drop below 40, which includes pretty much all of ECFL except the southern coast and most of Martin County. There are still considerable differences between the global models' evolution of the next system late next week, but it won't have the same potency as the one arriving today. Some modest rain chances return ahead of the front, then cooler than normal but far from record cold late next week.

MARINE

Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Today-Tonight...A low pressure system pushing offshore the GA-SC- NC coast this morning will rapidly deepen, causing boating conditions to quickly deteriorate and become dangerous later today and especially tonight. The cold front associated this system will pass quickly through Florida and the local Atlantic waters early this morning, departing to the southeast shortly after sunrise. West-northwesterly winds behind the front increase to 15-20 kts this morning, further increase to 20-25 kts this afternoon, then surge to 30-40 kts this evening and tonight. Frequent gusts to gale-force (34 kts) are expected across most of the waters by the evening, and frequent gusts to strong gale force (45 kts) are expected late this evening. Occasional gusts to storm-force (over 50 kts) will be possible tonight. Seas 2-4 ft this morning build to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream by the afternoon, 4-8 ft nearshore and 9-12 ft in the Gulf Stream by the late evening, and up to 7-10 ft nearshore and 12-17 ft in the Gulf Stream late tonight into early Sunday morning. The offshore winds will flatten seas along the immediate coast (closest 1-2 nm) a bit, but only shaving 1-2 ft off seas prevailing across the rest of the nearshore waters.

Bands of light showers will traverse Florida and the local Atlantic waters through the day. There is a low potential for flurries and even light snow showers well offshore tonight into Sunday morning.

Due to the rapidly deteriorating conditions a Gale Warning starts at 10 AM this morning, and mariners should remain in port. Any small craft that choose to venture out this morning should exercise caution for winds 15-20 kts across all Central Florida Atlantic waters and seas 4-6 ft in the Gulf Stream before the warning goes into effect.

Sunday-Tuesday...The low pressure system will have lifted northeast, centered just offshore the Mid-Atlantic seaboard by Sunday, and continue departing as high pressure moves into the Gulf then towards Florida. Winds and seas gradually diminish, but boating conditions will remain hazardous to dangerous Sunday, and poor to hazardous conditions will linger through Monday into Tuesday, especially in the Gulf Stream. The Gale Warning currently remains in effect through 1 PM Sunday, with follow-on Small Craft Advisories needed the rest of Sunday, and a combination of Advisories and caution statements Monday and Tuesday.

Northwest winds 25-35 kts with frequent gusts to gale-force Sunday morning decrease to 20-30 kts in the afternoon, and 15-25 kts in the evening, which are forecast to linger through the night. Seas 10-17 ft in the Gulf Stream and 6-9 ft closer to shore in the morning subside to 7-12 ft and 5-8 ft in the early overnight. More improvement but still poor to hazardous conditions Monday as northwest winds 15-25 kts in the morning finally decrease to 10-20 kts in the evening, and seas 7-11 ft in the Gulf Stream and 5-8 ft closer to shore in the morning gradually subside to 5-9 ft and 4-7 ft in the early overnight. Northwest winds finally subside to 5-15 kts by Tuesday, but 6-7 ft seas persist in the Gulf Stream.

Dry conditions through the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 639 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Band of light rain near KISM/KMCO/KTIX/KMLB will gradually shift southward reaching KVRB-KSUA mid morning through early afternoon. Some additional isolated to scattered light showers may push through into the afternoon, but not expecting any significant reduction in cig/vis with this activity. VFR conditions should largely prevail, with some brief MVFR cigs possible into the late morning and afternoon. Otherwise, dry/arctic airmass moving in tonight will end precip and lead to clearing skies.

West-northwest winds will start out around 5-10 knots early this morning, but will increase through the day and become very windy into the afternoon as low level wind fields increase rapidly behind the front. W/NW winds of 20-25 knots will gust to 30-35 knots at all terminals across east central Florida, especially from 20Z this afternoon continuing through 06Z tonight. Gusts to 45 knots at times can't be ruled out during this window as well. This will lead to crosswind concerns, especially at KMCO. Will also have to closely monitor the need for Airport Weather Warnings at both MCO and DAB for sustained winds of 25 knots and greater. Wind speeds decrease slightly overnight, but still remain breezy to windy, ranging from 15-20 knots with gusts up to around 25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Strong and gusty winds 35-45 mph, possibly over 50 mph this afternoon and evening will lead to containment issues of any fires. Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday as humidity drops to 20-30% while northwesterly winds remain around 15 mph with higher gusts. Winds decrease to 10 mph or less Monday, but fire weather conditions remain sensitive due to humidity values less than 30%.

CLIMATE

Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Sunday, February 1st: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb 30 1936 49 47 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 1-Feb 30 1979 50 52 1978 71 Sanford (SFB) 1-Feb 30 1965 51 46 1977 72 Orlando (MCO) 1-Feb 28 1936 51 48 1936 73 Melbourne (MLB) 1-Feb 32 1966 52 55 1948 72 Vero Beach (VRB) 1-Feb 29 1966 53 56 1966 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 1-Feb 32 1909 52 54 1936 74

Monday, February 2nd: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb 32 1980 50 51 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 2-Feb 29 1980 50 48 1980 71 Sanford (SFB) 2-Feb 33 1980 51 49 1980 72 Orlando (MCO) 2-Feb 32 1980 51 54 1951 73 Melbourne (MLB) 2-Feb 33 1980 52 55 1994 73 Vero Beach (VRB) 2-Feb 34 1980 53 55 1980 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 2-Feb 34 1980 52 57 1994 74

All Time February Records: RECORD RECORD LOWS COOL-HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 24 02/18/1958 43 02/09/1947 Leesburg (LEE) 23 02/26/1967 42 02/05/1996 Sanford (SFB) 25 02/18/1958 38 02/03/1951 Orlando (MCO) 19 02/07/1895 39 02/08/1895 Melbourne (MLB) 27 02/26/1967 43 02/09/1947 Vero Beach (VRB) 28 02/24/1989 46 02/09/1947 Fort Pierce (FPR) 25 02/05/1996 43 02/04/1917

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 57 23 45 25 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 58 25 46 28 / 20 10 0 0 MLB 62 25 48 27 / 30 10 0 0 VRB 62 26 49 26 / 40 20 0 0 LEE 56 23 45 26 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 58 24 45 26 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 57 25 45 28 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 63 25 49 26 / 50 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747.

Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.