textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Dry conditions persist through Monday then rain chances increase Tuesday/Wednesday as a weak front settles slowly southward across the Florida peninsula.

- At least a Moderate risk of rip currents will exist at area beaches Monday.

- Afternoon highs will remain above normal through the forecast period.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions will continue Monday due to critically low RH values, above normal temperatures and some wind.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Thru Monday...High pressure ridge axis will remain south of the area and keep warm and dry conditions in place during the day while seasonably cool at night. Maintained patchy fog across northern sections late tonight/early Mon but HRRR as well as NBM Probs are not bullish. Coolest temps tonight will again be found over southern sections closer to the ridge axis in the lower 50s with mid 50s elsewhere. A little warmer Mon esp along the coast where a little stronger offshore flow should delay onset of the sea breeze. Max temps generally in the mid 80s, except lower 80s along the immediate coast.

Tue-Wed...A weak front is forecast to reach central FL Tue then stall/wash out on Wed across south central FL. Increasing moisture will accompany this boundary, with PW values rising to 1.4-1.5 inches, leading to isolated to scattered shower development across east central FL. On Tue, rain chances will largely be limited to areas north of Okeechobee/Treasure Coast (up to 20-50%), and then will range from 20-40% across all of east central Florida Wednesday. There is a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms, mainly during each afternoon/evening as model guidance still shows CAPE values increasing to around 500-1000 J/kg each day. Overall shear profiles look weak, but cold temps aloft (-12 to -14C at 500mb) may allow for a small hail threat should any isolated stronger storms develop. Rainfall amounts are forecast to remain rather meager, and therefore not providing much relief from the ongoing drought. Rainfall totals below a half inch are forecast but locally higher totals will be possible, especially from any storms that develop.

A slight drop in max temps should occur with more clouds and scattered showers as well as the development of onshore flow behind the front. But there will be no significant cooling behind this front with temps overall remaining above normal.

Thu-Sun (modified)...As front fades, ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic builds back south across the area into late week. This will lead to mostly dry and continued warmer than normal conditions, with highs rising even further to the mid to upper 80s across the interior on Friday. Another front looks to push southward into the area this weekend with model guidance showing scattered showers and also breezy/windy conditions developing out of the NE.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Thru Mon...High pressure ridge axis will remain south of the local Atlc waters which will produce an offshore flow, except turning onshore near the coast in a 10-15 knot sea breeze both this afternoon and again Mon aftn. Winds will return to an offshore (West) component overnight once the sea breeze circulation diminishes. The ENE swell will continue to decrease so the combined seas (wind wave and swell) of 3-4 FT this afternoon will subside to 2-3 FT Monday.

Tue-Fri...Boating conditions deteriorate Tue-Wed as a front pushes southward into the local Atlc waters Tuesday. W/NW winds around 10- 15 knots in the morning becoming onshore (NE-E) into the afternoon and increasing up to 15-25 knots over the Volusia waters beginning late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Seas will build across all the waters from a long E/NE fetch from high pressure north of the front, producing poor to hazardous boating conditions across much of the waters through Tuesday night into Wednesday. wave heights increase up to 6-10 feet. As onshore winds weaken to 10-15 knots Wednesday and to around 10 knots Thursday-Friday, seas will also gradually subside, falling to 4-6 FT Wednesday night, 3-5 FT Thursday and around 3 FT Fri.

Shower and storm chances increase with the arrival of the front, with isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast from Tuesday afternoon (mainly north of Sebastian Inlet) and continuing from Tuesday night through Wednesday/Wednesday evening (across much of the coastal waters).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Dry weather persists at the terminals through the forecast period along with mainly VFR conditions. Westerly winds around 10 knots continue at the interior terminals and DAB, with winds shifting to out of the east along the coast as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Winds become light and variable to calm overnight, with guidance hinting at a low to medium chance (30-60%) of patchy fog development near the interior terminals and DAB. Have switched from prevailing MVFR conditions after 08Z to a TEMPO from 08-12Z tonight given the uncertainty relative to fog development. Any fog that does manage to develop will diminish after sunrise, with west-northwest winds around 10 knots anticipated at all terminals after 13Z tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

High pressure ridge axis across south Florida will maintain a warm and very dry airmass across the area Monday. Offshore (west) winds around 10 mph with some gusts up to 20 mph will become onshore along the coast in the afternoon behind a delayed east coast sea breeze. Min RH values will fall below critical values, between 25 and 35 percent for much of the area in the afternoon. The combination of above normal temperatures, low RH and some wind will produce sensitive fire weather conditions. Spotty red flag conditions may be realized. Afternoon smoke dispersion values are forecast to be Very Good, except generally Good over Martin county.

On Tue, a frontal boundary will push south into central Florida and bring a northeast to east wind flow along with increased clouds and rain chances across northern sections in the afternoon. The front will stall, weaken and dissipate Wednesday nearby while keeping scattered showers across the area. A few lightning storms will be possible both afternoons.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 56 85 59 78 / 0 0 0 50 MCO 56 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 40 MLB 54 83 58 81 / 0 0 0 30 VRB 52 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 55 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 40 SFB 55 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 40 ORL 56 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 40 FPR 51 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.