textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all east central Florida counties between 10 AM and 8 PM for peak heat indices of 108F to 112F. Practice heat safety!

- Heat will remain a concern across east central Florida over the next several days as afternoon highs near records in some spots and peak heat indices near or exceed Heat Advisory criteria.

- Below normal rain and storm chances are forecast to persist through this weekend and into early next week due to drier air aloft from Saharan dust. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes and strong, gusty winds.

- Increasing moisture Tuesday onward will result in a return of near-normal rain and storm chances across east central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridging aloft will keep the surface high across the Atlantic in place, with the surface ridge axis extending towards the Florida peninsula. This will result in persistent light and variable winds locally through this morning until the east coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland, with winds becoming south to southeast around 10 mph through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be possible in association with the sea breeze and its intrusion inland, but chances for development remain low (20-40%). The best chances (30-40%) are focused across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee where a plume of moisture lifts northward today. North of this area, a slightly drier air mass will limit rain and storm chances to around 20%. Sufficient daytime heating across the area today will provide enough energy for convective development and drier air aloft will act to enhance any potential wind gusts. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and brief heavy downpours. Activity is anticipated to diminish late this afternoon into the evening hours with a return of dry conditions overnight.

The persistent high pressure both at the surface and aloft will support a continued warming trend across east central Florida today. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s across much of east central Florida, with some locations near and north of the I-4 corridor climbing into the upper 90s and nearing record temperatures. These temperatures combined with humid conditions will produce peak heat indices of 108F to 112F today, and a Heat Advisory has been issued between 10 AM and 8 PM across all of east central Florida. Those spending extended periods of time outdoors are strongly encouraged to remain adequately hydrated, wear lightweight, lightly-colored clothing, and take frequent breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building to help reduce the risk of developing heat-related illness. Muggy conditions will continue into the overnight hours, with lows in the mid to upper 70s tonight.

Sunday...Ridging aloft and at the surface will remain in place across east central Florida on Sunday, with a plume of Saharan dust anticipated to drift across the peninsula. This will result in even lower rain and storm chances across the area (20%). Any storms that do manage to develop may be capable of producing lightning strikes, wind gusts to 50 mph, and brief downpours. Activity will diminish into the evening and overnight hours. The combination of the dry air aloft and the persistent high will support a continued warming pattern locally, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 90s areawide. Maximum apparent temperatures are anticipated to once again reach and/or exceed 108F areawide, and a Heat Advisory will likely be needed once again across east central Florida. Practicing heat safety will continue to be strongly encouraged through the remainder of this weekend in order to reduce the risk of heat illness. Little relief is anticipated into the overnight hours with lows remaining above normal in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Friday...Ridging aloft becomes broader into next week with the Atlantic high sliding southward as a weakening frontal boundary drifts southward across the southeastern US towards the Florida peninsula. Moisture is forecast to increase locally, with a return to near-normal rain and storm chances across northern portions of the area on Monday and areawide Tuesday onward. Convection will continue to follow a diurnal pattern, with peak coverage happening during the afternoon and early evening hours in association with the sea breezes. Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will all be possible with activity. Showers and storms are anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours. Aside from shower and storm chances, heat will continue to be a concern through next week. Afternoon highs are forecast to remain above normal areawide with humid conditions still leading to peak heat indices near or even above Heat Advisory criteria.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

High pressure will remain in place across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into the middle of next week, resulting in generally favorable boating conditions. West to southwest winds will become more south to southeasterly each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland across the peninsula, with wind speeds forecast to remain below 15 knots through the period. Seas of 1 to 3 feet will persist across the local waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible from the Cape southward today, with mostly dry conditions elsewhere. Drier air will move across the local waters late this weekend into early next week, keeping rain chances below normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 113 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Continued mainly VFR through the TAF period. Dry conditions and light/VRB winds into morning hours. Lower than normal TSRA/SHRA chances Sat, though the light SRLY LLVL flow could help develop ISOLD SHRA INVOF KSUA-KFPR as early as 16Z. The ECSB is forecast to develop after 17Z, reaching KMCO/inland terminals after 22Z, and shift winds ESE-SE 7-12 kts behind the boundary. ISOLD TSRA/SHRA are forecast to develop on the boundary as it moves inland. A sea breeze collision is forecast near to west of MCO Sat evening, with quiet conditions resuming overnight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites this weekend:

Site Aug 15 Aug 16 Daytona 97 (2023) 97 (2023) Leesburg 96 (1984) 96 (2011) Sanford 97 (1999) 97 (2023) Orlando 98 (1938) 101 (1918) Melbourne 98 (1963) 96 (2022) Vero Beach 95 (1993) 96 (2022) Fort Pierce 97 (1929) 97 (1948)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 94 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 10 MCO 97 78 97 78 / 20 10 20 10 MLB 92 78 94 78 / 20 0 10 0 VRB 92 76 93 76 / 20 10 10 0 LEE 96 78 96 78 / 20 10 20 10 SFB 96 78 96 78 / 20 10 20 10 ORL 96 79 96 79 / 20 10 20 10 FPR 92 76 94 76 / 30 10 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.