textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 246 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Areas of low clouds and fog will settle southward early this morning associated with a weak cold front. Areas north of Orlando may remain socked in low clouds through much of the day. - Isolated to scattered showers with isolated lightning storms near and north of Orlando today. Coverage increases and builds further southward Sunday and Sunday night. Periods of heavy rain possible.

- Turning noticeably cooler next week but no frost/freeze concerns at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Early This Morning... A cold front is analyzed near Lake and Volusia counties early this morning. Moisture in vicinity of the front has allowed a deck of low stratus to spread across east central Florida. Observations across north and west Florida have shown surface visibility reductions as the stratus slowly sinks. Therefore, fog remains forecast across much of east central Florida this morning, becoming locally dense at times. If encountering dense fog on area roadways, use your low beam headlights, reduce your speed, and maintain a safe following distance. Persistent cloud cover may allow fog to linger for a bit beyond sunrise, especially near and north of I-4.

Today-Monday... The cold front remains draped across the I-4 corridor today, extending into the Gulf. Broad low pressure works to develop along the boundary in the Gulf this weekend, eventually passing over Florida before further organizing over the western Atlantic late Sunday and into Monday. This will pull the stationary front more cleanly across central Florida on Monday, a bit later than previous model guidance had indicated. Scattered rain chances (30-40%) remain forecast in vicinity of the stalled boundary today, mainly north of a line from Cape Canaveral to Lake Kissimmee. Rain chances continue into the evening, although models may suggest some drying for a period into the late overnight. Although timing and coverage of showers may be more uncertain Sunday morning, a wet afternoon and evening is forecast, especially near and north of the I-4 corridor. Scattered rain chances begin to spread southward toward the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee late Sunday afternoon and into the overnight. Activity then clears from north to south Monday into Monday afternoon. Overall, surface instability looks to remain limited through the period. Confidence in lightning remains low, although the best chances look to be across the south late Sunday afternoon where less cloud cover should allow for better surface heating. A flooding rainfall threat could be present where multiple rounds of heavy rain occur. Models key in on areas of Volusia and northern Lake counties for seeing the highest event totals due to the proximity of the stalled boundary. Across these areas, models generally suggest event averages of 1-2" possible through Monday, and localized higher event totals of 3-4" cannot be ruled out.

Increasing cloud cover and rain chances make for a tricky temperature forecast through the weekend. Afternoon highs look to hold above average, in the low to mid 80s, south of the I-4 corridor where cloud cover and rain chances should generally be less. Areas further north may see a more wide distribution of temperatures, ranging the low 70s to low 80s. Northerly winds building behind the front on Monday will filter a cooler airmass across central Florida with highs spreading the low 70s across the north and upper 70s across the far south near Lake Okeechobee. Low temperatures are mostly forecast in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday-Friday... High pressure builds across the southeast and into central Florida Tuesday, and conditions remain mostly dry through the extended forecast. Highs hold near seasonal into mid week, mostly in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures then increase into the mid to upper 70s Friday. Lows mostly in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday fall into the upper 40s and low 50s across most areas Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 246 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

A weak cold front stalls near Cape Canaveral this weekend. As a result, north to northwest winds develop north of the Cape today while south to southwest winds hold across the southern waters. Winds mostly around 10 kts, except for a short duration surge of north winds near 20 kts across the Volusia waters this evening. Winds become variable Sunday as weak low pressure approaches from the west. This area of low pressure will work to pull the front south of Jupiter Inlet Monday with north winds increasing near 20 kts Monday night. Winds quickly diminish into Tuesday, gently shifting out of the north-northeast. Seas remain generally favorable ahead of the front, ranging 2-4 ft and occasionally 5 ft offshore. Poor to hazardous seas build late Monday, increasing to 5-7 ft. This will persist through Tuesday before beginning to slowly diminish on Wednesday. Scattered showers are forecast today, primarily north of Cape Canaveral. Coverage increases and builds further southward on Sunday and Sunday night, clearing from north to south Monday behind the front.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1253 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low stratus with VIS reductions over the western half of the peninsula is forecast to spread into the local area through the remainder of the overnight hours. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected, with TEMPOs included for all sites from 9-13Z, when models suggest reductions will be greatest. Low clouds look to continue after sunrise, lingering until around 16Z for most TAF sites. A brief period of VFR CIGs is then forecast through the afternoon, before additional MVFR/IFR CIGs develop after sunset tonight.

In addition to lower clouds, VCSH has been included for this evening into the overnight hours, as a front continues to slowly sag southward. W/SW winds today around 10 kts or less will veer NW/N after 0Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 61 74 61 / 40 50 70 80 MCO 82 64 81 66 / 40 30 60 70 MLB 82 65 82 65 / 20 20 40 60 VRB 83 64 83 65 / 10 10 30 50 LEE 78 61 76 62 / 40 50 70 80 SFB 80 62 78 63 / 40 40 70 70 ORL 81 63 79 65 / 40 30 60 70 FPR 84 63 84 65 / 10 10 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.