textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Patchy, locally dense fog possible early Sunday morning, especially across the interior

- Isolated showers are forecast Sunday as a weak front pushes through, but mainly dry and warm weather persists into next week

- A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, bringing cooler than normal temperatures late week into next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Now-Tonight...Plentiful sunshine this afternoon has helped bump temperatures into the low and mid 80s areawide. A fair weather cumulus field can be seen on satellite near Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. There, a diffuse sea breeze has formed and is attempting to move inland. A weak and slow-moving cold front stretches from the west-central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas and will continue to trek in our direction overnight. Meanwhile, light winds and increased near-surface moisture bring the renewed potential for fog again into Sunday morning. Low stratus may also push across locations north of I-4 before sunrise, which could have an effect on fog formation. If planning to travel early Sunday morning, especially over the interior and northern portions of the area, use caution when encountering fog on area roadways.

Sunday-Monday...Mid/upper ridging breaks down Sunday while a weakened cold front approaches the area. The front is forecast to become less and less defined as it moves across central Florida into Monday morning, though light surface winds do look to veer north- northeasterly behind the front. This forecast maintains the chance for sprinkles along the front Sunday into Monday and now includes a low chance for a few showers, as indicated by short-range models. Little to no measurable precipitation is currently anticipated, as any shower that develops will be short-lived in a relatively dry environment (PW 1.1-1.2" and decreasing). Despite a few more clouds on Sunday, temperatures are still forecast to reach the low 80s, settling into the low to mid 60s Sunday night. Monday brings daytime temps in the upper 70s to low 80s, just a touch cooler behind the front as onshore flow gradually resumes. It would also not be surprising to be a few sprinkles or a light shower along the coast through Monday afternoon. Fog potential will also linger around the front Monday morning.

Tuesday-Friday (modified previous)...The H5 ridge axis will have already pushed offshore the eastern seaboard by Tuesday morning. Then, the upper level pattern slows down a bit as multiple lobes of energy consolidate into a broad, deep trough over the Central/Eastern U.S. mid to late week. Surface high pressure moves into the western Atlantic ahead of a cold front, projected to move through central Florida on Thursday. Only a low chance of showers exists Thanksgiving Day, mainly south of Cape Canaveral, though some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and placement of shower activity. Better agreement exists on temperatures, with warm conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by seasonably cool temperatures from Thanksgiving Day into late week. North- northeasterly winds pick up a bit more Friday into next weekend, too, especially along the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Mostly favorable boating weather is in place through at least the middle of next week as light winds and 1-3 ft (4 ft well offshore) seas linger. A weak front moves over the waters Sunday into early Monday, stalling, then lifting north of the waters Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds veer north-northeast Sun.-Mon. (10-12 kt or less), then turn south-southeasterly Tue.-Wed. Light showers are or sprinkles are possible along the front Sunday and Monday with less model agreement on additional showers by midweek. A stronger front arrives Thanksgiving Day, building winds and seas late week into next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 620 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Another night of potential VIS reductions due to fog across all east central Florida terminals. Greatest confidence for VIS reductions remain across the interior terminals. TEMPOs in place 09-13Z, with visibilities anticipated to improve shortly after sunrise. Light and variable to calm winds tonight pick up out of the NW after 15Z, with a sea breeze leading to winds along the coast veering to out of the ENE after 20Z. Mostly dry conditions are forecast, though some isolated showers cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon along the coast. Left out mention of VCSH for now, but will continue to monitor and amend as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 63 80 63 79 / 0 10 10 10 MCO 63 83 64 82 / 0 10 10 10 MLB 62 80 66 80 / 0 20 20 10 VRB 59 82 66 81 / 0 20 20 10 LEE 64 82 62 82 / 0 10 0 0 SFB 63 82 63 81 / 0 20 10 10 ORL 63 82 63 81 / 0 20 10 10 FPR 59 82 64 81 / 0 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.