textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- A wet weather pattern will persist across East Central Florida this week and into the weekend as onshore flow and high moisture supports above normal rain and storm chances, including during the overnights and early mornings.

- Primary storm hazards will be gusty winds up to 45 mph, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue to produce peak heat indices in the triple digits through the week. Be sure to take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning if spending prolonged time outdoors to avoid the development of heat-related illness.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Thru Tonight...Low level trough axis over the adjacent Atlc waters is producing a north to northeast wind flow and steering scattered showers and isolated storms toward the southwest. Saw an earlier start to the convection today which could spell an early end this evening. However, reheating and lurking outflow boundaries will keep scattered to numerous storms redeveloping. Wind gusts so far have been tame in the storms today which is not surprising given the limited DCAPE but gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out in a stronger storms. The primary threat will continue to be locally heavy rain accumulating a quick 1-2 inches with locally up to 4 inches possible.

As the trough axis pushes westward across the area tonight, convection should redevelop/focus over the Atlc with possible impact to some coastal locations with areas north of the Cape appearing most likely. However, none of the CAM guidance is explicitly showing convection pushing onshore overnight.

Wed-Thu...The trough axis will cross the area from east to west which will veer the wind flow out of the east Wed and southeast Thu as the Bermuda high takes hold. Plume of deep moisture (PWATS 2.2"-2.4") will remain over the area continuing the pattern of showers and storms developing over the Atlantic waters in the overnight/early morning, then shifting inland in the late morning and afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Above normal afternoon rain chances (60-80%) are forecast and the saturated atmosphere will continue to support locally high rainfall amounts of 2-3" leading to minor flooding, and very low (up to 5%) chances for +4" of rainfall producing more impactful flooding. All of East Central Florida remains outlined in a Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall both days. Conditions are not favorable for severe storms but wet downbursts may produce wind gusts up to 45 mph in the stronger storms. Temperatures remain seasonable in the upper 80s/lower 90s with peak afternoon heat indices 100-107.

Fri-Mon...Bermuda high ridge axis will remain across south or central FL resulting in light south to southwest flow with afternoon sea breezes along the coast. No significant drying is forecast as high moisture remains over the area keeping rain chances above normal. The highest chances generally inland sea breeze collisions occur. Lower chances linger over the Atlantic waters and along the coast into the overnights. Near normal temperatures creep up a few degrees Friday and Saturday, with highs mostly in the 90s but flirting with the M90s inland, bringing heat indices closer to 107. Highs then settle back to the upper 80s/lower 90s Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Generally favorable winds and seas for boating through the rest of the week, but isolated to scattered lightning storms will remain a hazard, including during the overnights. Flow remains onshore, but wind flow will become more easterly Wed and southeast Thu 5-10 knots, a little stronger behind the sea breeze. As the ridge axis slips south across the area, winds will become more southerly Fri-Sat then offshore (SW) Sun. A sea breeze will develop each afternoon near the coast at 10-14 knots. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft well offshore in the Gulf Stream tonight into Wednesday, then settling to 1-2 ft this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Another early start to convection today, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing. Greatest potential for tempo IFR/MVFR conditions in this activity will be inland, west of I-95 this afternoon. However, any outflow that pushes back eastward may still lead to a few storms near the coast through late day. This activity will again diminish into early evening and shift west of the area, with rain chances decreasing into tonight. Model guidance not indicating much in the way of patchy fog or stratus across the interior as it did yesterday, so have continued to keep any mention out of the TAFS. Expect a similar pattern into tomorrow, with any earlier start to scattered to numerous showers and storms from mid morning into the afternoon.

Winds will generally be out of the E/NE around 7-10 knots this afternoon, becoming light and variable into tonight and then increasing again to around 5-10 knots tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 88 76 89 / 30 40 30 60 MCO 75 91 76 93 / 10 70 20 80 MLB 76 90 77 90 / 20 50 40 50 VRB 75 89 75 89 / 20 60 40 70 LEE 76 90 76 91 / 10 70 30 80 SFB 76 90 76 92 / 10 70 20 80 ORL 76 90 76 92 / 10 70 20 80 FPR 74 89 75 89 / 20 60 50 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.