textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- Another cold morning for parts of east central Florida. Wind chills will dip as low as the mid 30s to low 40s over the interior and Volusia County early today. Cool this afternoon with a few showers along the Treasure Coast.

- Windy at times over the next couple of days along the coast. Peak wind gusts reach up to 25 mph. Expect rough surf and a high risk of rip currents at our beaches. Boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous.

- Turning warmer by the weekend, with high temperatures rebounding into the 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Unusually cool and dry air has returned to east central Florida. This evening's Cape Canaveral sounding (18/00z) showed extremely dry air at H85 and an impressive inversion from 2500 to 7000 ft, marking the shallow nature of the cool air mass. Water vapor imagery depicts a vorticity axis embedded within southwest flow aloft, which is generating clouds and virga over the southern portions of the district. This feature is forecast to move east of the state over the next 12-18 hours.

Meridional flow persists over the U.S., with the East Coast and Florida stuck beneath an upper trough. This pattern is currently quite stagnant and should remain that way through the end of the work week. As a record-breaking H5 ridge slowly migrates from California to the Sonoran Desert by Friday, a pair of weak shortwaves spilling from the Plains toward Florida will slowly push the trough axis eastward and into the Atlantic. Embedded in northwesterly flow, these disturbances should be moisture-starved.

Surface high pressure currently rests from the Appalachians to the Mississippi coast, with a front now stalled out over the Bahamas. Over the next 48 hours, the surface high should push eastward toward the Eastern Seaboard, tightening the pressure gradient and allowing low-level winds to veer onshore over the Florida peninsula. This will act to moderate the cool, continental air mass overhead. While remaining below normal for mid-March, 3 kft (H925) temperatures should slowly climb from around +7 deg C this morning to +12 deg C on Friday.

17/12Z guidance remains in solid agreement through the weekend. The ridge over the West should flatten in response to a shortwave quickly clipping across the northern tier of states. Ahead of its cold front, high pressure settles over Florida by Saturday. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will carry some of the unseasonable warmth from the Western U.S. toward the east. While stronger positive temperature anomalies remain to our north, this will help scour out the remaining cooler air locally.

Another bout of cool high pressure from Canada should follow the shortwave moving into New England this weekend. Guidance differs in how quickly it will push a cold front toward the state, with the favored solution showing a weak passage around next Tuesday. Moisture is forecast to increase as this occurs, with a 50-70% chance of PWATs jumping to over 1" by that time. As the high passes well north of here, winds should quickly turn onshore and freshen, limiting cold advection.

Overall, this pattern favors generally tranquil weather for east central Florida over the next week.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Thursday...

Thinning clouds are forecast this morning over all but the Space and Treasure Coasts, allowing temperatures to continue falling. By daybreak, expect a strong contrast from north to south, with upper 30s/low 40s north of Orlando and mid-upper 40s from I-4 to Lake Okeechobee. Meanwhile, onshore breezes should hold the immediate Space Coast down to the Treasure Coast in the 50s. Dress for wind chills in the mid 30s to low 40s early today across the interior and I-4 corridor!

North-northeast breezes will pick up, gusting up to 20-25 mph or so along the immediate coast the next couple of afternoons. As our winds begin to turn onshore, a gradual moderation of overnight temperatures will occur. Lows on Thursday morning should generally be in the low/mid 50s, except for some mid/upper 40s over the rural interior.

We should see more sun over the northern half of the district today, but clouds should hang tough over the Treasure Coast and, occasionally, the Space Coast. We will also keep a 20-30% chance for a few showers, mainly south of Vero Beach. Additional shallow moisture embedded in the onshore flow may bring increased cloud cover and a few showers along the coast on Thursday, especially from the Cape southward (20-30%).

Afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, but still below normal for the time of year (mid-upper 60s to near 70). Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Thursday, reaching the low to mid 70s.

Friday - Monday...

We can't completely eliminate the coastal shower chances until late Friday for areas south of Melbourne, but coverage still looks low (20-30%). Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are anticipated through this timeframe as high pressure drifts over the area. Winds should decrease, and the warming trend really gets going. While most areas will stay in the 70s on Friday, all but the immediate coast have a 50% or greater chance to reach 80 deg F on Saturday. By Sunday and Monday, all areas should reach the 80s, with a 50-70% chance of interior locations reaching 85 deg F or higher by Sunday and Monday.

Next Tuesday - Wednesday...

There is some potential for a weak cold front to pass by, with high pressure to the north allowing winds to turn onshore and freshen. If this occurs, high temperatures may drop a few degrees, especially along the coast. There is also an indication that moisture will increase, leading to low chances for showers.

MARINE

Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The local Atlantic will sit between a stationary front over the Bahamas and high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard through the next couple of days. As the pressure gradient tightens, winds will become fresh to occasionally strong out of the north-northeast. Boating conditions will remain poor to, at times, hazardous through at least Friday. Then, high pressure settles over the waters this weekend, leading to improving conditions.

NNE winds 15-20 kt through Thursday, with seas building from 4-6 ft today to 5-8 ft on Thu afternoon, highest in the Gulf Stream. Dominant periods are 7-9 sec, so these will be quite rough conditions! By Friday, seas subside slightly to 4-6 ft, then further to 3-5 ft this weekend as winds also relax in time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions largely continue across east central Florida and are forecast to persist through today into tonight. The exception continues to be at KSUA where MVFR cigs look to hold on through much of today, potentially improving to VFR into this evening. Isolated to scattered light showers and sprinkles will continue to be possible across the Treasure Coast TAF sites (KVRB-KSUA) today, with limited to no impacts to visibility expected from this activity.

North-northeast winds increase to around 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20-22 knots especially along the coast late this morning and afternoon. Northerly winds will then decrease to 7-10 knots after sunset this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Fire-sensitive weather conditions are again favored today over the interior, especially northwest of Lake George to Sanford to Lake Kissimmee where RH readings should dip to 35-40% with northwest winds of around 10-12 mph. RH values recover slightly on Thursday, then fall again from Friday through the weekend as temperatures turn warmer. RH minima of 30-40% are forecast over the interior Fri-Sun, but winds should turn lighter as the weekend progresses.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 66 50 69 53 / 0 10 10 0 MCO 69 51 71 54 / 0 0 10 0 MLB 68 56 72 57 / 0 10 30 20 VRB 69 56 74 58 / 20 10 30 30 LEE 69 48 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 69 50 71 52 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 69 52 72 53 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 69 55 74 56 / 20 10 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ555-572- 575.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ572-575.