textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast: Avoid flooded roads, and do not walk or wade through floodwater!

- A weakening cold front will push southward across the peninsula tonight through Saturday, with drier conditions and slightly cooler temperatures forecast through at least Tuesday.

- Excessive rainfall over the upper St Johns River basin earlier this week is sending a considerable volume of water north through the basin. A prolonged river flood event is ongoing along the St. Johns River with conditions likely worsening before improvement occurs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Through Tonight...A band of light, isolated showers extending across the local Atlantic waters and towards the Treasure Coast will slowly diminish through the remainder of the afternoon, with mostly dry conditions elsewhere. Late this evening, a weakening cold front draped across the Big Bend region will push southward towards the peninsula, with a low chance (20-30%) of isolated shower development out ahead of the front. Rain chances will expand from the northwest towards the southeast as the front moves through the area. No other hazards outside of showers are anticipated, with lightning chances remaining below 20% at this time. Temperatures remain on track to peak in the mid 80s areawide this afternoon, cooling into the mid 60s to low 70s tonight. There is a low chance of fog development out ahead of the front, but confidence in this remains too low at this time to include within the forecast. Will continue to monitor closely and adjust as needed.

Saturday-Thursday...The weakening cold front will continue drifting southward across the Florida peninsula on Saturday, with high pressure building behind the front through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. The boundary will stall across south Florida and the Keys through early to mid next week. Drier air sweeps in behind the front locally, keeping rain chances below 10% Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures through this timeframe will also trend closer to normal overall, with some spots towards the Treasure Coast still staying a touch above normal. Mid-week, a shortwave trough looks to sweep across the southeastern US and towards Florida, prompting a gradual shift in the weather pattern locally. Current guidance indicates a weak low developing southwest of the Florida peninsula along the stalled boundary mid-week, with the energy aloft helping to lift the low northward across the Florida peninsula as the high pressure moves offshore across the Atlantic and weakens. This would result in increasing moisture across east central Florida mid to late week with a return of rain and even isolated storm chances, highest across southern portions of the forecast area starting as early as Wednesday. There remains a good bit of uncertainty, however, in how the low will evolve, timing of the shortwave aloft and where it will develop, so changes in the forecast are likely as time moves forward. Temperatures through the extended are currently forecast to trend cooler, even falling a bit below normal late next week.

While the weather looks to be favorable through this weekend and into early next week, there does remain some concerns along the coast. A non-tropical low hundreds of miles south of Bermuda will continue to send long-period swells towards the east central Florida coast through this weekend and into next week. This will support a persistent high risk of rip currents over the next several days, meaning entering the ocean will continue to be strongly discouraged. Additionally, a return of some higher astronomical tides is anticipated through the weekend. While this event will not be as significant as the prior event, Martin County in particular could see some minor coastal flooding in spots during periods of high tide, especially on Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

A weak cold front will move southward across the local Atlantic waters tonight into Saturday, bringing a low chance of showers to the area. Drier air settles across the waters through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Behind the front, winds become northerly at 10-15 knots, slowly shifting more northeasterly Sunday through Monday around 10 knots and easterly by Tuesday. Seas of 3 to 5 feet continue through the overnight hours, with 6 foot seas building across the offshore waters by Saturday. This is due in part to the increasing winds behind the front as well as long period swells moving towards the local waters from a disturbance well east of the area. Poor boating conditions across the offshore waters are forecast to linger through at least Monday before improving Monday night onward.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 701 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

ISO to maybe SCT SHRA are developing on a weak sea breeze collision over the interior, with this activity then pushing towards the coast and offshore. Mainly VFR through 08Z, then there is a low (20-30%) chance for MVFR-IFR CIGs to develop ahead of a weak cool front approaching Central Florida. The front is forecast to reach the northern terminals around 12Z, then slowly continue south through Saturday. Any IFR ceilings that develop are forecast to lift by 15Z, but CIGs will be close to MVFR until the front pushes through and drier air filters in behind. ISO SHRA could develop along/ahead of the front INVOF KVRB-KSUA in the afternoon if there is sufficient daytime heating. Light/VRB winds shift NNW-NNE 5-10 kts behind the front.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1241 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. The afternoon cu- field has occasionally become more BKN/MVFR at times. A line of SH over the Atlantic waters has slide onshore KVRB-KSUA at times, also producing brief VIS/CIG reductions and necessitating a few short-fused TEMPOs. Additional ISO SHRA are possible along weak inland moving east and west coast sea breezes, and could become ISO-SCT after 22Z INVOF of KMCO and other inland terminals on a weak sea breeze collision, then drifting back towards the east coast through the late evening and into the early overnight. Winds are generally light/VRB even behind the sea breezes until a mostly dry cool front pushes into ECFL tonight-Saturday, shifting northerly 5-10 kts behind the front. There is potential for IFR CIGs to develop at the inland terminals late tonight into early Saturday ahead of the front, but guidance is not consistent enough for TEMPOs yet. Any IFR reductions that do develop should lift by 15Z, with very low chances for lingering MVFR ahead of the front. VFR expected behind the front.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 225 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise the next several days through Minor and in some cases Moderate Flood stage. The river at Cocoa (COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage tonight into Saturday with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage towards the middle of next week. River forecasts are issued twice per day by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 67 80 62 79 / 20 0 0 0 MCO 70 82 62 81 / 20 0 0 0 MLB 68 82 66 81 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 68 84 67 82 / 20 0 0 0 LEE 68 82 59 81 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 68 83 62 82 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 69 83 62 82 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 67 83 66 82 / 20 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.