textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- An active pattern will persist across east central Florida this weekend into next week as onshore flow pushes the east coast sea breeze inland. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior with the sea breeze collision each afternoon. Some storms may be strong.

-Main storm hazards today will be gusty winds up to 55 mph, frequent to excessive lightning, and locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flooding in urban or poor drainage areas.

- Warm and muggy conditions persist across east central Florida with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and peak heat indices exceeding 100F. Be sure to take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning if spending a lot of time outdoors to avoid the development of heat- related illness.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure over the Atlantic and the SW US will merge over the southern US and the Gulf today, as a trough across the eastern US, extending down across north Florida, continues to weaken. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will continue to shift northward, moving north of the Florida peninsula as a quasi- stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US weakens and washes out overnight. Locally, winds will shift easterly today, both at the surface and gradually aloft, as that high pressure axis lifts northward. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon, with the onshore flow aiding the sea breeze to push farther inland through this afternoon. Moisture across the local area will remain above normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.2". This will support scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon. Scattered storms have already formed and pushed onshore across the south, with some showers and storms forming around the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Local guidance continues to show additional isolated to scattered showers and storms forming along the sea breeze, with coverage anticipated to increase as the sea breeze pushes inland. Highest coverage of storms will occur across the interior, mainly across Lake and western Orange and Osceola counties, in association with the sea breeze collision late this afternoon and into this evening.

The environment supports storms this afternoon, with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1700-2500 J/kg), ample buoyancy (lifted index of -6 to -8), and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-1000 J/kg). Main storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall of 1-3", which may lead to minor localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlined all of east central Florida into a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall. Any lingering activity will diminish shortly after sundown, with activity across the Atlantic waters continuing through the overnight hours. Some of this activity may push onshore through the night. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior. These temperatures coupled with humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-107F, which remains below Heat Advisory criteria. Conditions tonight will remain warm and muggy with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast due to a developing long-period swell and the onshore flow. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the ocean alone. Heed the advice of local beach safety officials and posted flags.

Sunday-Friday... Upper level high pressure over the southern US will slowly shift eastward through the time period. At the surface, broad high pressure will remain in place, with the ridge axis staying north of the Florida peninsula. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will remain in place, with the ridge axis staying north of the Florida peninsula. Locally, deep easterly flow will prevail, with speeds generally around 10 mph. this will support the development and farther inland progression of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. Moisture across the local area will remain near to above normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.1". Daily afternoon showers and lightning storms are forecast to continue, with scattered storms forming each day along the advancing east coast sea breeze, with additional showers and storms forming across the interior. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior, where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur each evening, generally around Orlando westward. Storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Shower and lightning storm activity will diminish into the overnight hours, however, scattered showers and storms will continue across the Atlantic waters each night. Some of this activity may push onshore along the coast in the easterly flow through the night and into the morning hours each day.

Temperatures will remain seasonably hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s across the interior. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce heat indices of 100-106, with up to 108 possible in spots next week. A Heat Advisory may be needed for some parts of east central Florida next week. Be sure to stay adequately hydrated if spending extended periods of time outdoors and also take breaks in the shade or in air conditioning to help prevent the development of heat-related illness. Overnight lows will continue to be warm and muggy with lows in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Today-Wednesday... Generally favorable boating conditions expected. Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, moving north of the Florida peninsula today and remaining north of the local area next week. This will result in winds becoming easterly and persisting through next week. Wind speeds are forecast to generally remain between 5 to 10 knots through the period. Seas 2-3ft will build up to 4 ft, highest across the offshore waters, into mid next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the Atlantic each day, with activity moving onshore (towards the peninsula). Main storm hazards will be lightning, gusty winds in excess of 30 knots, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. An area of SHRA with embedded TSRA is moving northward along the Treasure Coast as of around 17Z. CAMs suggest this activity will move northward towards VRB before pushing inland around 20-21Z. Elsewhere, convection is beginning to develop along the east coast sea breeze, which has already moved west of I-95. Expect additional showers and storms to focus along this boundary, quickly moving to the western half of the peninsula through the afternoon. Drier conditions are forecast to develop by around 23Z. However, additional showers will be possible along the coast from TIX southward after 6Z, possibly lingering through much of the morning. E/SE flow prevails at around 10 kts today, becoming light overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 89 77 89 / 30 50 30 60 MCO 76 92 76 92 / 20 70 20 70 MLB 78 90 78 90 / 40 50 30 70 VRB 77 90 77 90 / 40 50 50 70 LEE 76 91 76 91 / 30 70 20 70 SFB 76 92 76 91 / 30 60 30 70 ORL 77 92 77 91 / 30 70 20 70 FPR 77 90 77 90 / 40 50 50 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.