textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Drier air aloft moving into the region will lead to decreasing rain chances, falling to 30-50% today, with below normal coverage of showers and storms then forecast each day this week. Isolated strong storms will still be possible each day.

- Hot and humid conditions continue next several days. Peak heat index values of 102-107F forecast, and may reach Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Thru tonight...Late morning (15Z) XMR sounding shows drier air in the mid to upper levels with most of the moisture below 725 mb contributing to the calculated 2" Precipitable Water. Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue to develop and lift N/NW. Areas along the coast esp south of the Cape will remain mostly dry as activity focuses on the interior and Volusia county. The dry air in the mid levels is contributing to higher downdraft CAPE values which supports more gusty wind potential with storms. This drier air aloft is also producing more numerous and well defined outflow boundaries for additional storms to spark. Locally heavy rain accumulating 1-3" will be possible in the slower moving storms.

The primary threat will be lightning strikes, especially those that occur well outside of the rain shaft. We have seen several instances of this "blue sky lightning" so far today. Seek shelter in an enclosed building or automobile if thunder is heard or threatening weather approaches. Screened porches, dugouts and picnic shelters may keep you dry but they do not protect from lightning.

Monday-Saturday...High pressure ridge aloft moves in and holds across the area. The assocd suppression/subsidence will contribute to hot conditions and below normal shower and storm chances. Isolated to scattered showers will still be possible into Monday afternoon/evening. Greatest rain chances (up to 30-40%) will exist across inland portions of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, with slight rain chances (~20%) elsewhere. For the remainder of the week, rain chances currently remain quite limited around 20% or less as mid level drier air continues to move into the region and ridge aloft remains in place. A gradual rise in rain chances is possible into the weekend, but coverage still looks to be overall below normal. Given the increase in drier air aloft, while storm coverage remains below normal, any storms that do manage to form will have the potential to become strong, producing strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Weak steering winds will also allow for heavy downpours from some storms, producing locally heavy rainfall of 1-2" each day.

These drier than normal conditions will allow for rising heat impacts through the week as little relief will be found from afternoon convection. Max temps will reach the low to mid 90s each day. Peak heat index values will easily reach 102-107F, and will have to monitor the need for Heat Advisories, especially from Tuesday onward as portions of the area may see heat index values rise to 108-110F. Warm and muggy overnight temps in the mid to upper 70s will also amplify the overall heat impacts, with widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast for much of the area each day. Continuing to follow heat safety practices will remain important as we go through the week.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue through at least mid week. Atlantic ridge axis currently north of the area will start a slow southward progression, moving across the local Atlc waters early this week and then reach south FL midweek. SE winds again Monday will become S/SW Tue and W/SW by Wed-Thu. However, the offshore flow will remain weak enough for the east coast sea breeze to still form each afternoon, with winds becoming onshore (SE) near the coast at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet through Monday then 1-2 feet the remainder of the week. Shower and storm chances will be below normal this week with coverage at 20 or less.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Increasing coverage of VCTS anticipated over the next few hours, with VCTS at all terminals. TEMPOs at the interior terminals between 19-24Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. ESE winds 10 to 15 knots. Conditions dry out along the coast after 22Z and across the interior after 03Z at the latest, with SE winds persisting into the overnight hours around 5 knots. Winds pick back up to around 10 knots out of the S across the interior and out of the ESE along the coast. VCSH possible along the coast with the development of the ECSB.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 91 75 92 / 10 20 10 20 MCO 76 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 20 MLB 77 90 77 90 / 0 20 0 10 VRB 77 91 76 91 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 77 93 77 93 / 20 20 10 20 SFB 76 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 20 ORL 76 93 77 93 / 10 20 10 20 FPR 76 90 76 91 / 0 20 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.