textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Hot and humid conditions continue this week with Moderate to Major Heat Risk for all of East Central Florida. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day.

- Lower storm coverage is forecast Wednesday then storm coverage will increase into late week. Scattered to numerous storms from Thursday onward will move toward the Atlantic coast each afternoon and evening, a few strong storms will be possible.

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all central Florida Atlantic beaches into late week. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Current/Tonight...Scattered showers and lightning storms will move east northeast at 20 mph toward the Atlantic coast through late afternoon with the highest coverage north of a Kenansville to Melbourne line. A few strong storms may develop with locally heavy rainfall, cloud to ground lightning stikes and gusty winds up to 40-50 mph. The strength of the low level WSW flow should keep the east coast breeze pinned near coastal sections with residual shower and storm chances mainly confined to coastal zone during the evening hours. Shower/storm chances across the coastal counties will diminish by 10-11pm with dry conditions overnight.

Wed...The mid level ridge will build slightly across central and south FL with some lowering of the mean mid level moisture levels over the area. This will bring lower afternoon convective coverage in the early to mid afernoon. Isolated to scattered storms should be favored by late afternoon and early evening near the slow moving east coast breeze and also some activity should develop over the interior by late afternoon. Hot temperatures with mid 90s for highs across much of the area away from coast and barrier islands and a delayed start to convection will heighten the risk from the heat. A major to moderate heat risk is expected with max heat index values between 102 and 107 degrees. Remember to stay hydrated, wear light colored clothing, shift outdoor work away from 10am to 4pm, and take frequent breaks from the heat.

Thursday-Friday (modified)...Shower and lightning storm chances increase to end the workweek. Guidance increasing PWATs over east central Florida as a shortwave trough moves across the southeast states Thursday and off the SE Atlantic coast Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each afternoon with the highest coverage across northern sections Thu and eastern sections Friday. The potential exists for isolated strong storms each day which will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The greatest potential for strong storms exists on on Friday with increased upper level support. Afternoon highs will reach the the mid 90s across the interior both days with maximum heat index values as high as 102-107F.

Saturday-Tuesday...The western Atlantic ridge is forecast to weaken and shift southeast into the weekend as a shortwave trough deepens over the eastern US and the western Atlantic. Guidance indicates that shower and lightning storm chances will increase over the weekend with PWATs as high as 2.0"-2.4". The potential exists for strong storms with a frontal boundary over northern Florida, however, the forecast for east central Florida will be dependent on the position of the frontal boundary as it sags southward over the southern US and northern Florida. Highs in the lower to mid 90s will continue into early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Tonight-Wednesday... Favorable winds and sea conditions are expected with the western Atlantic ridge across south Florida through Wed. Scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast across the nearshore Atlantic waters by late afternoon and evening. West-southwest winds are forecast to back south-southeast into each afternoon.

Thursday-Sunday...The surface ridge will remain across south FL with S/SW flow late this week becoming westerly Saturday and variable Sunday as the tail end of a frontal boundary approaches the area. Generally favorable wind and sea conditions are expected, though lightning storm chances will increase late this week and over the upcoming weekend posing a hazard to small craft.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Prevailing southwest winds are increasing to around 10 kts this afternoon. A south to southeast wind shift should occur along the coast as the east coast sea breeze is slow to develop, but the sea breeze is not expected to move far inland. Scattered showers and storms are beginning to develop across portions of central Florida, and VCSH/VCTS is included at all terminals this afternoon. Best coverage of showers and storms should occur in vicinity of I-95, and have TEMPOs mentioned at all coastal terminals for TSRA VIS/CIG impacts. Convection should generally diminish near or before sunset across the interior while VCSH may linger a few hours into the evening at coastal terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 93 76 94 / 10 30 20 60 MCO 75 95 76 96 / 20 20 20 60 MLB 76 93 77 93 / 30 20 20 40 VRB 75 94 77 94 / 20 20 20 30 LEE 76 95 76 95 / 10 20 10 60 SFB 76 96 76 96 / 20 30 20 60 ORL 76 95 77 95 / 20 20 20 60 FPR 75 93 76 93 / 20 20 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.