textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Deep layer high pressure will support mostly dry and warm conditions across east central Florida through this weekend, with portions of the interior nearing record highs.

- A slight chance for showers Friday morning/mid day along the Treasure coast.

- A cold frontal passage Sunday night will bring cooler temperatures and windy conditions Monday into Tuesday, including hazardous boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Fri-Sun...Deep layer high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place through the weekend. The warming trend is anticipated to continue, with highs climbing into the mid 80s and low 90s nearly areawide across east central Florida. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values. The greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still looks to be at Leesburg, especially Saturday (see record highs below). Most areas will remain dry, however high res guidance shows isolated Atlc showers developing offshore the Treasure coast Fri morning and some of these may push onshore Martin/St Lucie counties. Light and variable winds in the mornings will turn onshore behind the sea breeze boundary which will push steadily inland each afternoon. The sea breeze will be a little delayed Sunday as it will have to overcome a little stronger offshore (WSW) flow but will develop nonetheless.

Mon-Thu...A cold front drifts southward across the Florida peninsula Sunday night into Monday morning, with a low chance (20-30%) of showers and storms focused primarily south of Orlando/Cape Monday. High pressure over the Great Lakes builds south and east across FL with its weakening ridge axis settling across central FL by Thu. There is a small (20% or less) chance for isolated coastal showers Wed-Thu.

A tight pressure gradient will produce strong/gusty NE winds that spread quickly southward behind the front late Sunday night and early Monday. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph are forecast esp along the coast. Not quite as windy on Tue but dangerous surf conditions that develop Mon will persist Tue too. The onshore flow will decrease Wed as the ridge axis approaches Wed then settles over the area Thu.

Noticeably cooler temperatures behind the front with highs slightly below normal. As winds decrease and we lose the northerly wind component (as winds turn more east) midweek, a gradual warming trend will commence.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend as high pressure ridge axis settles southward across the waters. As a result, the background/synoptic wind flow gradually veers more southerly and weakens around 5 knots. A little steadier offshore (WSW) flow will develop early Sun. But each afternoon, E-SE wind flow will develop near the coast at 10-12 knots assocd with the sea breeze circulation. Primary contribution to seas will be a 2-3 FT swell. Isolated showers should develop over the southern waters Friday morning/mid day and may cross portions of the coast south of Sebastian Inlet.

A cold front is forecast to cross the area Sunday night and bring rapidly deteriorating boating conditions. NE winds increase 20-25 knots with some higher gusts immediately behind the front with seas rapidly building 7-10 FT with the highest waves over the Gulf Stream waters Monday/Mon night. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed beginning Sunday night. Winds gradually subside into Wed and become more Easterly as approaching ridge axis eases the pressure gradient. Seas will be slower to subside esp in the Gulf Steam but are forecast to fall below 7 FT Wed morning there.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Favorable flying conditions continue. VFR prevails with lt/vrb winds becoming E/SE in the afternoon with the seabreeze, up to 12 kt. Low potential for fog at interior terminals tonight, will monitor and AMD if signal gets stronger in subsequent TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in mostly dry conditions along with a warming trend. Isolated showers are possible Friday over the Treasure coast counties. Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast through the weekend, though light winds will keep conditions below Red Flag criteria. Light and variable winds during the overnight and early morning hours will become onshore each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland, with wind speeds reaching 10 to 15 mph. A few gusts near 20 mph will occur especially along the coast. Minimum RH values are forecast to fall to 30-35% across most of the interior counties on Friday and Saturday afternoons. Along the coast, there are no minimum RH concerns. Afternoon smoke dispersion values are forecast to be Fair to generally Good Friday and Saturday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 63 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 65 83 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 64 83 66 84 / 0 10 0 0 LEE 62 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 61 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 63 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 63 83 65 85 / 0 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.