textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 627 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Showers diminish south of Melbourne this evening.

- An approaching cold front on Thanksgiving Day will deliver a few showers and a low chance for lightning, particularly along the Treasure Coast in the afternoon. Breezy and turning cooler.

- Very chilly Thursday night and early Friday. Temperatures set to fall into the 40s and 50s with lowest wind chill values in 30s and 40s across parts of east central Florida.

UPDATE

Issued at 627 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Made a few tweaks to the forecast to follow radar trends this evening south of Melbourne. Triggered by a series of boundary / sea & lake breeze collisions, a few showers will linger for a couple hours before diminishing for much of the night. Our next chance for a few showers is forecast on the approaching cold front northwest of Orlando after midnight. While low stratus is favored along the boundary, we will monitor trends for any fog development.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Current-Tonight...A warm afternoon for late November with near record warmth in the 80s areawide. Today's highs will top out near the middle 80s, several degrees above climo and near record values. Please see Climate section below for records. A modest "uptick" in moisture may allow for ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms into tonight well ahead of the front generally south of Melbourne. A strong cold front, while mostly dry, will push into our northern coverage warning area late tonight and through the remainder of ECFL during the morning on Thu. Models do try to "spit" out some sprinkles/few light showers late tonight across the I-4 corridor and have added a small PoP to match up with neighbors here. Light SW/WSW winds out ahead of this boundary will slowly veer WRLY/NWRLY thru the night.

Overnight lows mild and generally in the L-M60s, except U50s for portions of north Lake/northwest Volusia counties. Low confidence on fog chances overnight, but greatest prospects would be along the Kissimmee River and towards Lake Okeechobee (pre-frontal).

Thanksgiving Day...Will monitor for some early morning stratus clouds and potential patchy fog southward (ahead of the front). Otherwise, the strong cold front will plow through the remainder of ECFL during the morning, with highest rain prospects 20-40% south of a Melbourne-Kenansville line. Isolated lightning storms cannot be ruled out. Generally a pleasant, albeit cooler, holiday on tap. Behind the front, max temps will only muster U60s to L70s along/north of I-4 with M-U70s southward toward Lake Okee, except 80F for much of Martin County. Northerly winds (post-frontal) will make it feel cooler with speeds gradually increasing to 8-12 mph across the interior and up to around 15 mph near the coast, with higher gusts for all during the afternoon. Much drier air will slowly filter southward in the afternoon - esp northward. This will lead to sensitive fire weather conditions.

Thu Night-Fri...Cooler and drier air continue to filter southward during this period. Northerly winds (breezy/gusty) continue to increase to 10-15 mph areawide overnight (up to 15-20 mph along the coast on Fri) with frequent higher gusts. This as fairly stout high pressure builds in from the northwest creating a tighter pressure gradient behind the most recent front.

Overnight lows into Fri morning in the L40s north/west of I-4 with M- U40s for coastal Volusia and southward thru the interior and L-M50s for coastal Brevard/Indian River counties, except M-U50s for coastal St. Lucie/Martin counties. Lowest wind chill (apparent temperature) readings overnight Thu/Fri morning will realize U30s north/west of I- 4 with near 40F to L40s across coastal Volusia and southward toward Lake Okee and interior (W of I-95) portions of Brevard/Indian River counties. Elsewhere U40s to 50s for coastal Brevard/Treasure Coast. Conditions will not be favorable for frost development due to the elevated winds.

Afternoon highs (below normal) Fri only recover into the 60s, maybe near 70F for portions of the Treasure Coast. The elevated winds and low relative humidity will lead to continued sensitive fire weather conditions areawide. Still fairly chilly Fri night into Saturday morning - with an onshore wind component developing along the coast. Expect lows to range from the 40s over the interior, with M-U50s for coastal Brevard/Treasure Coasts - except a few L60s for immediate St. Lucie/Martin coasts.

Sat-Wed...Previous Modified...Model agreement through the extended continues to improve. A modest trough swinging through the northern CONUS will support a developing surface low as it tracks east- northeast from the Central Plains near to south of the Great Lakes, and across the southeast Canadian provinces, ushering high pressure offshore of the Eastern Seaboard. At this time, there are no significant mid-upper features to push the next cold front into central FL until at least mid next week. Onshore flow is expected to develop and deepen early in the weekend lasting until perhaps at least Mon night/Tue before becoming S/SW in advance of the next low pressure system. This will support gradual warming through the weekend and into early next week, and potentially some low rain chances Sun into the first half of next week.

MARINE

Issued at 117 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Thru Tonight...An approaching strong cold front will push into the local waters overnight. Southerly winds 5-10 kts this evening will veer NW/N by daybreak Thu morning with speeds gradually increasing to 10-15 kts at least north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 2-3 ft, except up to 4 ft offshore Volusia late. ISOLD to WDLY SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms will be possible.

Thu-Fri...Winds increase behind the cold front with seas slowly responding (building) as well. Boating conditions deteriorate thru the day/night on Thu. For this forecast package have initiated a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for Volusia waters (15Z/10AM, Brevard waters (18Z/1PM), and finally for the Treasure Coast waters (18Z/4PM) as a wind surge slowly pushes southward behind this latest boundary. Expect wind speeds to slowly increase to 20-25 kts (north to south) with higher gusts. Initial seas of 2-4 ft will build 3-5 ft near shore and 4-6 ft offshore by early Thu evening, becoming 5-6 ft near shore and 6-7 ft (possibly 8 ft) Gulf Stream by daybreak Fri morning. ISOLD-SCT showers with ISOLD lightning storms forecast Thu- Thu evening ending southward as drier air filters across the local waters behind the front.

Sat-Sun...Boating conditions remain poor into Sat, esp Gulf Stream, as a tight pressure gradient continues between low pressure to the south and high pressure building into the area from the north. ERLY winds 15-20 kts and seas building to 4-6 ft. The gradient relaxes slightly on Sun with onshore winds decreasing to 12-17 kts and seas subsiding to 4-5 ft. Mainly dry conditions into Sat, then gradual rain chances return Sun.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 627 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

MCO IMPACT: - Low stratus forms late tonight and Thursday morning along a cold front. IFR probabilities have increased to around 50% by 09Z.

Showers continue over/near the Treasure Coast terminals this evening; this activity should diminish over the next couple hours. Next up is an approaching cold front, arriving around the Greater Orlando terminals around daybreak. There is a 20-30% chance for showers, near and north of MCO, but a better potential (50-60%) for low stratus along the front in the morning. CIGs into the IFR range are most likely in the Orlando/Daytona areas in the morning hours, with the lower CIGs then shifting toward MLB to SUA from late morning through the afternoon. Finally, a few more showers are forecast (low chance for lightning) esp at FPR and SUA in the afternoon hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 117 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

A strong, but mostly dry cold front, will push through the area overnight thru early Thu. Fairly strong high pressure follows with very dry air and cooler temperatures. Sensitive fire weather conditions will develop with drier air accompanied with increasing (post-frontal) northerly winds Thu afternoon-Fri. Min RHs Thu forecast to drop below 40% along and north of I-4, and possibly below 30% well north, further decreasing Fri to less than 40% across much of the interior, and less than 30% in Lake County and portions of adjacent counties. Winds currently forecast to remain below 15 mph where RHs are lowest. Afternoon smoke dispersion Thu is forecast to be mostly Poor to Fair due to generally low mixing heights and weak transport winds, becoming Generally Good Fri. There are low to moderate (20-40%) chances for showers and low (around 20%) chances for lighting storms across the southern counties Thu. Winds shift onshore by the weekend, increasing moisture and improving fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 627 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Daytona Beach tied its record high today (85F/1992).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 70 44 61 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 65 73 47 63 / 10 20 0 0 MLB 65 76 49 66 / 10 10 0 0 VRB 65 78 51 68 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 60 70 42 61 / 20 10 0 0 SFB 63 71 44 62 / 20 20 0 0 ORL 64 72 45 62 / 10 20 0 0 FPR 65 79 51 69 / 40 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ555-575.