textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1216 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Chilly again early this morning with temperatures falling into the 40s. Mid to upper 30s forecast for portions of Lake and Volusia.

- Another cold front is forecast to move across the Florida peninsula on Sunday, with scattered showers forecast ahead of the front.

- Cold conditions return to east central Florida behind the cold front on Sunday, resulting in cold mornings through at least Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Current-Tonight... High pressure across the region continues to promote calm and dry conditions. After a cold start to the day, temperatures have reached the 50s across much of east central Florida with areas of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast touching the 60s. Not as cold tonight, but remaining chilly with most areas falling into the 40s. Mid to upper 30s are forecast across portions of northern Lake and Volusia.

Sautrday-Monday... A mid/upper level trough builds east of the Rockies on Saturday, swinging across the eastern U.S. and through Florida on Sunday. Surface high pressure retreats into the western Atlantic ahead of the trough while the western flank of the ridge axis remains stretched across east central Florida on Saturday. Still chilly on Saturday morning with lows mostly in the 40s. A few areas of northern Lake and Volusia could dip into the 30s, and light winds will support patchy frost development in vicinity of Lake George. A brief warmup will allow temperatures to recover near normal by the afternoon, mostly in the low to mid 70s. Morning lows trend near normal Sunday morning before a the next front brings another cold airmass to the region. Global ensembles continue to disagree in rain chances ahead of the front Sunday. Most GFS ensemble members hold a dry solution while Euro members support measurable rainfall amounts across the north. The latest NBM leans toward the Euro ensemble members and have capped rain chances around 40-50% near and north of the Orlando metro. Lower rain chances further south for now, but have noted a potential uptick within a few of the extended CAMs. Highs on Sunday vary widely north to south based on frontal timing. Areas north of I-4 could be limited to the upper 50s and low 60s while a longer period of heating and westerly flow ahead of the front could allow portions of the Treasure Coast to reach the mid to upper 70s. Breezy north winds push a colder and drier airmass across east central Florida Sunday night, and clearing skies across much of the area should allow for efficient radiative cooling. By Monday morning, lows fall into the 30s across much of the area with minimum wind chill values in the 20s. There is increasing confidence for Cold Weather Advisories needed for portions of the area Monday morning. Additionally monitoring moderate to high probabilities for freezing conditions across portions of northern Lake and inland Volusia. High temperatures Monday hold in the mid to upper 50s from Osceola/ central Brevard northward while reaching the low to mid 60s across portions of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.

Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure builds across the southeast U.S. Tuesday, moving into the western Atlantic late Wednesday. Models then diverge as a frontal boundary moves into the eastern U.S. Although gradually warming each day, low temperatures hold below normal Tuesday and Wednesday with some areas still holding onto 30s. Monitoring low probabilities for wind chills near Cold Weather Advisory thresholds Tuesday morning, particularly across the north interior. Northerly winds shift onshore Wednesday, bringing temperatures closer to seasonal by Thursday morning and widely spreading the 70s by Thursday afternoon. Mostly dry with isolated showers returning to the forecast by Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 157 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Poor boating across southern legs of the Gulf Stream this evening as seas up to 6 ft gradually subside. A surface ridge axis stretched over the waters will promote a brief period of favorable boating Saturday with light winds and seas 2-4 ft. Offshore winds then increase to 15-20 kts Sunday morning ahead of the next cold front. Shifting northwest winds further increase to 20-25 kts and build seas 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream behind the cold front Sunday afternoon. Brief improvements in winds and seas are forecast late Monday and into Tuesday with another surge of northerly winds causing deteriorating boating conditions again mid week. Scattered showers are forecast with the front on Sunday. Otherwise, dry.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1212 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR with L/V winds into Sat morning. Increasing marine stratocu across Treasure Coast terminals northward above FL040. Weak pressure gradient continues with winds transitioning onshore along the coast in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Fire weather conditions improve through this weekend as moisture increases. However, dry air settling behind a cold front on Sunday will lead to sensitive conditions as minimum RH values fall below 35 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 51 61 34 / 0 10 50 0 MCO 72 54 66 36 / 0 10 40 0 MLB 72 54 71 39 / 0 10 30 0 VRB 74 54 74 40 / 10 10 20 0 LEE 72 50 58 33 / 0 20 50 0 SFB 73 52 63 35 / 0 10 50 0 ORL 72 54 63 37 / 0 10 50 0 FPR 74 54 75 40 / 10 10 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

AM...None.