textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions are forecast across east central Florida through this weekend and into next week. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding, moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents, and Gale conditions are forecast this weekend and early next week.

- Increasing rain and storm chances are forecast through the weekend. Minor flooding cannot be ruled out due to repeated rounds of showers and the potential for training bands of showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Today-Tonight...The Florida peninsula remains wedged between a strengthening surface high pressure across the eastern US and a stalled boundary draped across the northern Caribbean, maintaining northeasterly winds locally. A tightening of the pressure gradient due to the strengthening high will lead to an increase in winds today, with sustained speeds forecast to reach 15 to 20 mph while gusts range between 25 to 35 mph. The strongest winds are anticipated along the coast, with conditions reaching Wind Advisory criteria along the Volusia and northern Brevard coastline starting at 2 PM and expanding southward along the coast at 2 AM. The persistent northeast winds are forecast to continue advecting moisture from the Atlantic towards the coast, with a southward- moving mid-level trough providing some energy aloft to support onshore-moving showers today. While isolated activity has already begun across the local waters, coverage is anticipated to increase this afternoon into the overnight hours, with the potential for some training bands to develop. As a result, WPC has outlooked the east coast in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall today, with minor, localized flooding possible in some spots. Additionally, there is a low chance (20-30%) for storm activity to develop, with isolated lightning strikes and occasional stronger wind gusts possible. As mentioned, activity is anticipated to persist into the overnight hours, and farther intrusion inland of showers will be possible. Temperatures remain near normal, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Hazardous to dangerous beach conditions are forecast along the east coast today as a result of the persistent northeast winds, high astronomical tides, and building seas. A high risk of rip currents is forecast along with rough surf. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the Volusia and northern Brevard coasts starting at 11 AM, expanding southward to the rest of the east central Florida coast at 8 PM. Breaking waves of 6 to 10 feet are forecast, starting up north and expanding southward as seas continue to build overnight. The rough, pounding surf is also anticipated to result in beach erosion. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect along the entire east central Florida coastline for minor coastal flooding that is anticipated to peak during high tide, approximately between the hours of 5 to 7 AM/PM. Overall, conditions at the beach will be dangerous, and entering the ocean is not encouraged. Even heading to the beach could become hazardous, especially during periods of high tide.

Sunday-Tuesday...The surface high across the eastern US will continue to strengthen and push southward through this weekend and into early next week, while at the same time a broad area of low pressure gradually develops along a stalled boundary draped across the northern Caribbean and meanders across the western Atlantic. The result will be a continued tightening of the pressure gradient across the Florida peninsula, resulting in increasing wind speeds locally. Northeast winds are forecast to reach 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph starting on Sunday, with these windy and gusty conditions persisting into Monday and Tuesday. Wind Advisories will likely be needed areawide beginning on Sunday, with high confidence for advisories across portions if not most of east central Florida through the start of the work week.

The persistent northeast flow will continue to advect moisture towards the Florida peninsula, with rain chances remaining high into Sunday (40-80%). Sunday looks to have the best chances for activity to push farther inland, and there is also a low chance (20-40%) for some storm development with activity as well. Any storms that do manage to develop may be capable of producing lightning strikes and strong wind gusts. Additionally, with the persistent northeast flow, training bands may develop across east central Florida, raising the risk for localized flooding. There is currently a Slight Risk (2/4) of excessive rainfall across portions of the Treasure Coast, with a Marginal Risk (1/4) along northern portions of the coast. By Monday and Tuesday, rain chances are anticipated to decrease slightly to 30- 50%, with the highest coverage forecast along the coast primarily from the Cape southward. Minor flooding will remain a concern, with a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall continuing across portions of the Treasure Coast into Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to remain seasonable in the upper 70s to low 80s during the afternoon hours, falling into the 60s to low 70s during the overnight hours.

With the persistent northeast flow, continued high astronomical tides, and high wave heights forecast, dangerous surf conditions are anticipated to continue along the east coast through this weekend and into early next week. Entering the ocean is STRONGLY discouraged, and even heading to the beach could become dangerous, especially during high tides. A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect beginning at 2 AM on Sunday for minor to moderate coastal flooding along the entire east central Florida coast. A high risk of rip currents will persist and the High Surf Advisory will continue along the entire east central Florida coast for breaking waves of 7 to 12 feet as well as moderate to major coastal erosion due to the pounding surf. Extensions in time of these coastal hazard products are highly likely given the anticipated prolonged nature of this event.

Wednesday-Friday...Discrepancies persist in guidance relative to the strength of the pressure gradient mid to late week, primarily driven by differing placement and strength of the lingering low pressure system out in the Atlantic. These should resolve over time after the low develops. Regardless, breezy and gusty northeast winds are anticipated to persist across east central Florida, resulting in prolonged hazardous coastal and surf conditions. Additionally, this flow will support continued development of onshore-moving showers and isolated storms, with the highest chances focused along the coast. Lower chances across the interior, though it cannot be fully ruled out. Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal values for this time of year.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into next week as a tightening pressure gradient across the local waters leads to increasing winds and seas. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots today build to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 35 knots from Sunday onward. Seas of 6 to 9 feet today rapidly build tonight into Sunday up to 10 to 15 feet, highest across the Gulf Stream waters. Elevated seas are anticipated to linger through the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory across the local waters will upgrade into Gale Warnings, starting at 8 PM tonight across the Volusia and Brevard waters and at 8 AM Sunday across the Treasure Coast waters. For now, the Gale Warning continues through Monday, though extensions in time will be likely given the prolonged period of dangerous conditions.

Moisture increases across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend, with a return of scattered to numerous onshore-moving showers anticipated. Rain chances 40-70% today increase to 60-80% tonight through Monday, with a slight decrease in rain chances from Tuesday onward. There is a low chance (20-40%) for storm development with activity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 607 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Generally VFR conditions continue through the TAF period outside of convection. N/NE flow near 10 kts across the interior and 10-15 kts with higher gusts along the coast early this morning. Winds will become NNE/NE through the day increasing to around 15 kts (G25 kts), except 15-20 kts (G25-30 kts) along the coast Cape northward. Winds remain elevated and gusty tonight (esp along the coast - actually increasing further MLB southward). Gradually increasing onshore-moving showers and ISOLD lightning storms thru the day and into tonight. Highest PoPs will be along the east coast diminishing into the interior. "Vicinity" wording in place with TEMPO groups later in the day/night. TEMPO MVFR invof convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 78 68 79 69 / 60 70 60 60 MCO 81 69 82 70 / 20 40 40 10 MLB 81 68 81 70 / 30 70 70 50 VRB 83 68 83 70 / 10 60 70 60 LEE 79 66 80 66 / 10 30 20 10 SFB 81 67 81 69 / 30 50 50 20 ORL 81 68 82 70 / 20 40 40 10 FPR 82 67 82 69 / 10 60 70 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ141-347-447.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-347-447.

Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ154-159-164-647-747.

Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ154-159-164- 647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-552- 570-572.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575.

Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ555-575.