textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 201 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible through this weekend, as wet pattern continues, with slow-moving showers and storms. A few storms will be capable of wind gusts to near 50 mph. - Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue to produce peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate Risk for rip currents today at east central Florida beaches. Remember to always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Today-Tonight...Strong mid/upper level ridging over the Carolinas moves eastward today. Meanwhile the Atlantic ridge axis begins to organize off of the Florida east coast. Prior to sunrise, a few showers are present over the local Atlantic waters, moving NE towards the coast. Most of this activity is weakening as it approaches the more stable land mass of the peninsula. However, a few showers will remain possible along the coast into the early morning hours.

Light onshore flow this morning becomes SE this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but remains under 10 mph. Deep moisture, with PWATs 2.2-2.3"+, lingers over the peninsula today, with 50-60% coverage of showers and storms forecast once again. Convection is forecast to begin just inland from the coast by around 2 PM, then push into the interior through the afternoon, with a collision near the Orlando metro near to just after rush hour. Slightly lower PoPs for the coast (40-50%), with slow and erratic propagation persisting over the interior into the evening hours. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out, mainly along the collision, with DCAPE near 800 J/kg. However, the main threat looks to be locally heavy rainfall due to slow moving storms, which could lead to minor flooding concerns. Showers and storms look to slowly diminish through the evening, with drier conditions inland by midnight. A few showers or a storm will remain possible along the Treasure Coast overnight.

High temperatures in the lower to mid-90s and high humidity will lead to heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria at 102-107 degrees. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outside in the heat of the day. Overnight lows are forecast to remain in the 70s.

Friday-Sunday...The Atlantic ridge strengthens Friday and into the weekend, as mid to upper level ridging moves off of the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, the surface ridge axis establishes itself over the central Florida peninsula. Prevailing light southerly flow becomes SSE in the afternoons as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Despite a slightly stronger east coast breeze, expect a collision over the interior each afternoon, with deep PWATs 2-2.3" supporting PoPs 60-70%. The mid- level ridge axis is forecast to be slightly farther south, producing light offshore steering flow. While a majority of storm propagation will be erratic and slow, a drift towards the east coast through the evening hours will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out, with gusts near 50 mph, due to 500mb temperatures -7C and perhaps a small intrusion of Saharan Air Layer in the mid- levels. However, the main threat looks to be heavy rainfall from slow moving storms and deep moisture. Any slow moving storm will be capable of a quick 1-3" and could lead to minor flooding concerns, especially in areas that see multiple rounds.

Scattered showers and storms are forecast to linger into the evening hours over the interior along the sea breeze collision. Then, drier conditions develop for the overnight. But, onshore flow will maintain the chance for a few showers or a storm (20-30%) along the Treasure Coast overnight and into the morning. Highs in the lower 90s and muggy conditions will continue to produce heat indices 102-107 degrees, just shy of Heat Advisory criteria, while lows remain in the 70s.

Monday-Thursday...Strong ridging develops through the column next week near the Carolinas, weakening the Atlantic ridge. This will lead to strengthening onshore flow, perhaps even ENE at times, around 10-15 mph. This wind regime would favor a dominant east coast sea breeze and, in theory, lower coverage for the local CWA. However, models differ on the amount of available moisture present and how that will affect coverage of any onshore-moving showers and storms. Thus, the current forecast maintains near to slightly above normal PoPs 40-70%. Onshore flow, breezy at times in the afternoons, looks to keep high temperatures near normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s. But, coastal areas are forecast to linger in the upper 70s to near 80 overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 201 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions outside of convection will persist through the weekend. The strengthening Atlantic ridge will develop its axis over the local waters through the period, supporting a dominant east coast sea breeze. Light S winds become SE at 10 kts or less near the coast as the sea breeze develops in the afternoons. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will remain a threat, even overnight. Late day, offshore-moving convection will be an increasing threat into the weekend, as steering flow aloft becomes offshore. A few storms will be capable of wind gusts to near 40 kts. Seas 2-4 ft today become 1-2 ft by this weekend.

Strengthening high pressure near the Carolinas next week will develop increasing onshore (E/NE) flow. Boating conditions may deteriorate slightly at times, as winds increase to 10-15 kts. Otherwise, showers and storms will remain a threat, with seas 2-3 ft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 657 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Light winds become southeast 4-8 kts at most terminals into late morning. The east coast sea breeze will move inland into this afternoon shifting winds east-southeast 7-10 kts and increasing rain chances. VCTS is mentioned at all terminals after 18Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR reductions are forecast from ISM/MCO/TIX northward, generally after 19Z/20Z, and PROB30s remain at the coastal terminals from MLB southward after 18Z/19Z. Most convection diminishes by 01Z, but can't rule out a few lingering showers and storms through late evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 90 75 90 75 / 60 30 60 20 MCO 93 76 92 76 / 60 30 60 20 MLB 91 77 91 77 / 40 20 60 10 VRB 90 75 90 75 / 40 20 60 10 LEE 92 76 91 76 / 60 30 70 30 SFB 92 76 91 76 / 60 30 60 20 ORL 92 77 91 77 / 60 30 60 20 FPR 90 75 90 75 / 50 20 60 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.