textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged!

- Isolated coastal showers with scattered rain and storms developing each afternoon/evening across inland locations, as the sea breeze pushes west. Overall, many locations will remain dry.

- High temperatures remain consistent in the upper 80s to low 90s, but heat index values climb to near or above 100 degrees this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Now-Tonight...Compared to this time yesterday, some drier air has moved over east-central Florida. Thus, radar has been less active with isolated showers and storms until just recently. As the east coast breeze shifts inland over the next several hours, CAM guidance suggests a gradual increase in convective development near/west of the Orlando metro. Locally heavy rain, gusty winds 30-40 mph, and occasional lightning strikes cannot be ruled out with the most organized activity. Many locations will otherwise stay dry with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through the rest of the afternoon. Tonight, conditions remain mild (70s), particularly at the coast as easterly flow persists.

A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at area beaches. Keep this in mind if heading to the beach over the next several days, as this risk will likely continue into the holiday weekend. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Thursday-Wednesday (modified)...High pressure remains off of the eastern US seaboard through the forecast period. Meanwhile, a mid to upper level low north of the Bahamas drifts eastward late this week, with upper level ridging subsequently developing over the peninsula. Locally, little change remains expected to the weather pattern over the next seven days. East to southeast flow prevails on the southern periphery of the pressure ridge, with winds gusting as high as 20-25 mph each afternoon.

Rain chances have not changed much from the previous forecast, generally staying in the 30-40% range inland and closer to 15-25% at the coast. While isolated activity cannot be ruled out at the coast as moisture increases this weekend into next week, onshore flow will carry higher rain chances inland as the sea breeze moves west in the afternoon and evening hours. Still, there will be a number of locations that receive little to no measurable rainfall through the extended forecast. Any storm could produce gusty winds (water-loaded downdrafts), lightning strikes, and locally heavy rain. However, there is currently no apparent organized risk for severe storms through the middle of next week.

High temperatures look to hover between the mid 80s and low 90s, but with added moisture, heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to low 100s as early as Friday (and continue into next week). A widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast with some locations developing a Major HeatRisk over the weekend. Be sure to stay cool and hydrated, especially if spending extended time outdoors. In addition, a moderate to high risk of rip currents will continue, so heed the advice of lifeguards at area beaches!

MARINE

Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

ESE winds 10-15 kt continue late week into the weekend, increasing to 12-17 kt early next week as the pressure gradient around Atlantic high pressure strengthens slightly. Shallow moisture will support isolated showers through the period with an occasional lightning storm possible (especially in the Gulf Stream and south of the Cape). The primary focus for rain and storms, however, will be carried west over the FL Peninsula with the daily east coast sea breeze. Seas generally 2-4 ft, climbing to 5 ft offshore at times from Sunday onward.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Mainly VFR conditions outside of convection. TSRA this evening will stay west of ECFL terminals. Onshore moving marine strato- cu could briefly become BKN020-030 through late morning before lifting/mixing. ESE winds 7-13 kts still occasionally gusting to around 20 kts settle to 5-10 kts by 02Z, becoming light/VRB at times overnight. Winds shift to the SE at 5-10 kts Thursday, favoring a Thursday afternoon sea breeze collision closer to the inland ECFL terminals, resulting in higher afternoon-evening TSRA chances. Want to get a few more models runs before committing to TEMPOs (they've had a tendency to back off coverage the day of lately), but at this juncture highest chances for TSRA impacts at KMCO and area terminals roughly 20Z-23Z, lingering longer at KLEE. Some SHRA/TSRA could approach KDAB-KTIX, but should stay west of KMLB-KSUA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 88 75 90 / 10 20 10 20 MCO 72 91 73 91 / 10 30 10 30 MLB 77 87 78 88 / 10 20 10 20 VRB 75 87 78 89 / 10 20 10 20 LEE 73 91 75 92 / 10 30 20 30 SFB 72 92 74 92 / 0 30 10 30 ORL 72 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 30 FPR 75 87 77 88 / 10 20 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.