textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches today and may continue through much of this week. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged!

- Increasingly humid conditions into this weekend will gradually expand the Moderate HeatRisk across east central Florida.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms move inland with the sea breeze during the afternoons, though most will remain dry.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Current-Tonight...Isolated showers continue to drift onshore prior to sunrise this morning embedded within east to southeasterly flow. This activity is forecast to continue through the early morning hours, before convection becomes greater focused on the interior and western half of the peninsula later in the day (PoPs around 20% or less this morning).

High pressure remains offshore from the Mid-Atlantic seaboard today, with east to southeasterly flow enhancing to around 15 mph and gusts to 20-25 mph behind the sea breeze. PWATs near 1.5" and a mid to upper level low in the vicinity of the Bahamas will lead to continued isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon over the far interior (PoPs 20-30%), but the highest chances remain west of Leesburg. Although a vast majority of the forecast area is expected to remain dry, CAMs notoriously struggle to resolve isolated onshore- moving convection, so a few showers cannot be ruled out along the coast this afternoon. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels (DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and cooler 500 mb temperatures (near -10 C) could lead to a few strong storms, with wind gusts near 50 mph and small hail.

Regardless, additional showers and storms are once again forecast for the local Atlantic water overnight during the convective maximum, a few of which will likely drift onshore into coastal areas through early morning. High temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90 today, with little relief overnight as lows linger in the 70s for most areas and near 80 along the coast. If trying to beat the heat at the beaches, be aware there is a High Risk for rip currents. Entering the water is strongly discouraged.

Wednesday-Tuesday...The ridge remains over the western Atlantic through the period, with its axis stretched generally towards the Carolinas into the weekend. Aloft, the mid to upper level low drifts towards the east coast of Florida through late week, before it weakens and riding develops for the long weekend. Into early next week, models suggest the surface high finally begins to drift southward, though this has very little, if any, effect on the local pattern.

Overall, little change is expected to the Florida peninsula's weather pattern over the next seven days. Ridging to the northeast maintains east to southeast flow, which increases to around 15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours, occasionally drifting onshore, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Then, convection focuses on the interior or western half of the peninsula, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze collision in the late afternoon and evening. PoPs each day through the work week are generally 20-30%, though most will likely remain dry. Moisture increases from the Atlantic into the weekend, increasing PoPs slightly to 40-50%. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday, though increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures look to reduce that threat into the weekend.

Onshore flow keeps high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. However, this will also lead to overnight lows remaining in the 70s, at times even near 80 along the immediate coast. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which creep into the upper 90s to near 100. Humid conditions and little relief overnight will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk. Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks from the heat. A High to high-end Moderate Risk for rip currents looks to continue through the period, thanks to onshore flow.

MARINE

Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to southeast flow through the weekend. Winds remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20-25 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible each day, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours, drifting onshore into coastal areas. A few stronger cells could produce wind gusts near 30 kts. Seas up to 5 ft offshore this morning diminish, with prevailing 2-4 ft seas into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Widely scattered VCSH ongoing this afternoon, mainly across the interior moving westward with the inland moving sea breeze. VCSH for all interior sites and TIX-DAB this afternoon. Will closely monitor for need of short fused TEMPOs this afternoon. But as of now, do not have any TEMPOs, and handling with VC wording. East winds 12-15 KT this afternoon with locally higher gusts will decrease to around 5 KT overnight. East to east-southeast winds will increase to around 10 KT by 14Z and then increase to 8-12 KT with gusts to around 20 KT in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Much like today, scattered showers will be moving onshore through the morning/early afternoon before transitioning to interior with the inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

High pressure centered well offshore will help maintain east- southeasterly winds through the week and into the weekend. Sustained winds increase to 10-20 mph behind the sea breeze each afternoon, with gusts around 25 mph, especially along the coast. The greatest chance for rain and storms will be generally south of the Cape in the mornings, transitioning inland with the sea breeze into the afternoon and evenings. However, any convection will be isolated to scattered in nature, so many locations will remain dry. Briefly higher wind gusts embedded in showers or lightning storms will be possible.

Ongoing drought and breezy winds will prolong fire sensitive conditions and any lightning strikes could lead to new fire starts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 87 72 89 / 10 10 0 10 MCO 71 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30 MLB 76 86 76 88 / 10 20 10 20 VRB 75 87 75 88 / 10 20 10 20 LEE 71 91 72 92 / 0 20 10 20 SFB 71 91 72 92 / 0 30 10 30 ORL 72 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30 FPR 74 87 74 88 / 10 20 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.