textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 107 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

- Turning breezy and warmer today. Southwest winds gusting 15-25 mph this afternoon. Poor to hazardous boating conditions develop later today and tonight.

- Scattered showers are forecast to push southward over east central Florida, beginning this evening and into tonight. The chance of lightning is low.

- Springlike warmth returns next week, with many spots reaching the lower 80s by Tuesday or Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Well south of a blocking -NAO pattern, quasi-zonal mid-level flow was analyzed tonight across the southeastern U.S. Upstream, shortwave energy is exiting the Red River Valley (TX/OK) ahead of a gathering ridge over the Rocky Mountains. In response to the disturbance to our west, weak low pressure and a front have formed over the I-20 corridor. Over the next 48 hours, this shortwave is forecast to quickly translate eastward, passing over the state during the next 24 hours before it departs into the W Atlantic. The result for east central Florida is modest moisture advection through Saturday night (with PWs peaking at around 170% of normal). A cold frontal passage should occur early Sunday, dragging drier air southward with it. PWs drop closer to 0.75-1" by Monday.

Next week, a combination of the weakening block over Greenland and additional Pacific jet stream energy crashing into the West should cause the upstream ridging to slowly work eastward. This ridge should become centered over the eastern Gulf and Florida by the latter half of the week. 02/12Z cluster analysis of the grand ensemble shows no substantive disagreement with this general pattern evolution. In fact, 50-60% of members show H5 heights peaking around 588 dam by next Saturday, which is just above the 90th percentile of climatology. An axis of surface high pressure should also spend much of next week near Central Florida. Unsurprisingly, PBL temperatures respond accordingly, with H85 T's leveling off around +11 to +13 deg C from Tuesday through the end of the forecast period.

Ensembles hint that the next substantial front to reach Florida should wait until at least next Sunday (1/11) or Monday (1/12), with some cooling potential thereafter.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Temperatures trend back to slightly above normal levels (70s), courtesy of breezy southwest winds. A few gusts to around 20-25 mph will be noticed from time to time. Much of the daytime should be dry, save for our communities near and north of Orlando, where there is a low chance for showers this afternoon. By tonight, moisture increases ahead of a cold front settling toward the area. Guidance remains in disagreement on how far south the showers will extend before they dissipate. Kept our previous forecast largely intact, calling for 50-70% shower chances north of Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee, lessening to 20-30% east of Lake Okeechobee.

Lightning potential looks very limited (< 20%), with MUCAPE values generally less than 250 J/kg. The chance for over 1/2" of rain is well under 10% for most of us, with perhaps a 10-20% chance of reaching that tally northwest of I-4.

Sunday - Monday...

As the cold front passes south of here, we may squeak out a shower or two on Sunday morning. A few ensemble members develop some showers over the Atlantic on Monday that have a low chance of skirting the coast. For now, rain chances are held at 20% or less, with most places dry both days.

Subtly cooler air teases the northern half of Florida on Sunday, likely holding highs in the upper 60s north of Orlando, where some clouds may linger. Otherwise, temperatures should range in the 70s to finish the weekend. By Monday, all areas turn a bit warmer with mid 70s north to near 80 around Lake O.

Tuesday - Next Saturday...

With the aforementioned ridge setting up shop, any consequential weather features are forecast to be deflected well north of the state. This paves the way for several days of spring-like weather. Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, daytime highs will trend solidly above normal, in the upper 70s to low 80s for most spots. Over the interior, there is a 10-30% probability of reaching as high as 85 degrees by Friday. Statistical guidance also shows a 10-20% chance of at least tying daily record highs late next week at Orlando and Leesburg.

MARINE

Issued at 107 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Southwest breezes freshen today, producing poor to hazardous boating conditions over the local Atlantic by tonight. Small Craft Advisories will go into effect for the offshore waters late today and tonight. At the same time, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to accompany an approaching cold front. The front settles south of the waters on Sunday, with an axis of high pressure resuming control early next week. This will allow boating conditions to improve.

SW winds 10-20 KT today, becoming up to 25 KT well offshore tonight. Winds turn northwest to north on Sunday, 10-17 KT. Seas 2-4 FT nearshore this weekend, up to 5 FT offshore. Winds turn onshore on Monday; seas remain 2-5 FT on Monday before decreasing to 2-3 FT by mid-week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 107 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through at least 20Z Sat. Cannot rule out patchy ground fog through 13Z. SW winds increase Sat 10-13 knots gusting up to 22 kts. SCT SHRA ahead of a cold front will reach northern terminals btwn 22Z-02Z then reach southern terminals aft 02Z while gradually falling apart. Have maintained VCSH at MCO but with rain probs at 50-60% will likely need to insert a TEMPO for MVFR SHRA in later TAF package. More impacting will be the IFR/LIFR CIGs (with some reduced VIS) developing behind the front late Sat night into Sun morning. NBM has 45% prob for IFR CIGs at MCO 12Z Sun, right at the end of this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 57 67 54 / 30 60 10 0 MCO 76 61 72 55 / 20 60 10 0 MLB 77 58 73 57 / 10 50 20 10 VRB 76 57 75 57 / 0 30 20 10 LEE 75 59 69 52 / 30 70 10 0 SFB 77 59 69 54 / 20 60 10 0 ORL 75 60 71 55 / 20 60 10 0 FPR 76 56 76 57 / 0 20 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ572-575.