textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Rain and lightning storms remain possible through this evening, pushing west with the sea breeze. Occasional to frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds are possible.

- Turning windy, especially at the coast, from late Tuesday through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents.

- Heightened rain chances are focused along the coast Wednesday and Thursday. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas, especially later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Now-Tonight...A healthy field of cumulus clouds is present across east central Florida this afternoon, now highlighting the developing east coast sea breeze near I-95. Showers are forming near and west of the breeze, in an environment characterized by 2.2"+ PW (see 15z XMR sounding), 2,000-2,500 J/kg MLCAPE, weak lapse rates, and warm H5 temperatures. Like yesterday, not every location will see rain or storms this afternoon. However, the spots that do may experience torrential downpours, occasional to frequent lightning, and gusty winds. While initial convection will be focused closer to the coast through 3 PM or so, a transition of rain/storms inland is expected as both the sea breeze and 500mb flow shifts more onshore. CAMs and HREF alike push most of the activity west of the area by 8- 9 PM as it all begins to dissipate past sunset.

Tonight, temperatures will settle into the 70s again but stay a few degrees warmer at the coast. This marks the beginning of deepening onshore flow and the influence of an expanding surface ridge to our north. Showers and isolated storms are supported in both short and medium-range guidance, and some of this activity could drift onshore after midnight (closer to daybreak Tuesday).

Tuesday-Thursday...Some showers and a few storms over the local Atlantic may be moving onshore at the immediate coast Tuesday morning. East-northeasterly winds become established areawide, increasing a bit through the day, especially along the coast. This is in response to a gradually tightening pressure gradient around the southern periphery of a ridge, centered over New England. A 10- 15 mph breeze Tuesday becomes 15-20+ on Wednesday with peak gusts around 25-30 mph at times. Beach and boating conditions will become poor to hazardous, especially on Wednesday. As always, heed lifeguard advice, beach flags, and signs. Entering the surf is not advised as conditions worsen mid week.

Lower rain chances continue to be advertised on Wednesday as a batch of drier air moves across north-central Florida. Despite model soundings highlighting a stout dry layer between 500-700mb, the low levels may remain moist enough to support shallow marine-layer showers that repeatedly push toward the coast. Lower chances for lightning (generally less than 30-40%) are forecast Wednesday. High PW values return Thursday afternoon and beyond, coincident with an upper low passing overhead. With this additional dynamic support, rain chances return to 60% and higher Thursday. Guidance is also highlighting some notable DCAPE values and H5 temps between -8C and - 10C, so the potential for a few stronger storms and locally heavy rainfall will be monitored.

Friday-Sunday (previous)...The mid to upper level ridge over the southeast U.S. gradually breaks down late week as troughing aloft continues to push west of Florida and into the Gulf. Southwest to south flow behind the trough aloft will advect a column of deeper moisture over central Florida. This looks to support continued rain chances areawide into the weekend. High temperatures are forecast near seasonal values mostly in the upper 80s and near 90 degrees.

MARINE

Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Light to nearly calm winds over the local waters and seas 1-2 ft maintain favorable boating conditions this afternoon and evening. Deep moisture and a shift to increasingly east-northeast flow will support a growing chance for overnight showers and a few storms, continuing into Tuesday.

Deteriorating conditions are forecast from Tuesday evening onward as high pressure strengthens north of the waters. In response, northeasterly winds freshen, worsening boating conditions from north to south late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sustained winds 20-25 kt with peak gusts around 30 kt are forecast, so Small Craft Advisories will be needed soon. Seas peak around 6-8 ft Wednesday into early Thursday. Rain chances will persist over the waters, perhaps lowering a bit Wednesday as some drier air moves overhead. However, moisture surges back in Thursday and Friday, supporting continued rain/storm chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions expected outside of convection this afternoon and evening. Onshore flow develops this afternoon, increasing to 10 kts as the sea breeze moves inland. Showers and storms will develop along the sea breeze in the early afternoon, just west of the coastal terminals. Have included PROB30s TSRA for the KDAB- KMLB corridor thru ~21Z. Convection is then forecast to move inland through the afternoon, with TEMPOs for interior locations, generally from 20-00Z. Showers and storms may linger in the vicinity of KLEE near 00Z, as SHRA/TSRA move into the western half of the peninsula. Otherwise, drier conditions prevail overnight. May need to add VCSH Tue morning for some coastal terminals with isolated showers moving onshore from the Atlantic.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The St Johns River at Astor may reach Action Stage this week. Locally heavy rain is expected in the middle/upper basin early this week, followed by a period of onshore winds over the lower basin and estuary from late Tuesday through at least Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 89 77 88 / 20 40 40 20 MCO 76 91 76 89 / 20 70 20 20 MLB 78 89 78 88 / 30 50 50 40 VRB 76 89 77 88 / 20 40 60 60 LEE 76 90 76 89 / 30 50 10 10 SFB 76 90 76 88 / 10 50 20 20 ORL 77 90 77 88 / 10 60 20 20 FPR 75 89 76 88 / 20 40 60 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.