textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Conditions remain favorable for patchy fog across portions of east central Florida this morning. Localized visibilities of a a half-mile or less will be possible through sunrise.

- Warming temperatures this weekend. Breezy/gusty south winds Sunday afternoon will produce very sensitive fire weather conditions.

- Rain chances will increase late Sunday through Sunday night and bring much needed rainfall but should make little dent in the drought.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Today... A weak frontal boundary across the area this morning is forecast to dissipate as it drifts southward today. Conditions remain dry through the short term with no mentionable rain chances in the forecast. High temperatures hold near to just above normal values, mostly ranging the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. However, the warmest areas across the southern interior look to touch 80 degrees. Conditions remain favorable for patchy fog early this morning with occasional visibility reductions already observed across portions of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Localized visibilities of a half-mile or less will be possible before fog dissipates shortly after sunrise.

Saturday-Monday... High pressure moves offshore the southeast U.S. and into the western Atlantic Saturday. A diffuse moisture boundary wraps around the western side of the high, becoming oriented north- south across the local Atlantic waters. Isolated showers will primarily be confined to the local waters, but onshore flow will allow low rain chances (20%) along the immediate coast on Saturday, primarily from the Cape southward. Winds become breezy out of the south on Sunday as the next cold front approaches central Florida. There remains notable spread among global models in the timing of the frontal passage, but the earliest solutions keep the greatest rain chances (70-90%) after sunset Sunday, continuing through the overnight. Lower confidence exists in rain chances ahead of the front and during the daytime on Sunday. A NBM solution introduces a 20-40% PoP within the warm sector ahead of the front. This seems reasonable at the time given the spread, but could even trend a tad lower as global ensemble members come into further agreement. The highest QPF spreads central Florida overnight Sunday and into early Monday with values at the 50th percentile currently remaining less than a half inch. While moderate to high confidence exists in the greatest coverage occurring overnight Sunday and into early Monday morning, less confidence exists in how long rain chances may linger through the day Monday. The current forecast keeps PoPs around 40-60% during the day, but this will be largely influenced by the timing and speed of the front. A limited storm environment exists ahead of and along the front, primarily characterized by modest shear profiles.

Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend, with only a slight cool down forecast for some locations Monday. Highs on Saturday spread the upper 70s to near 80 degrees across the interior while holding in the mid to upper 70s along the coast in onshore flow. Despite increasing cloud cover Sunday, southerly flow will push highs into the low 80s across much of the interior. A modeled temperature gradient exists on Monday ranging the mid 70s across the north with low 80s across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Lows in the low to mid 50s on Saturday morning warm through the upper 50s and low 60s Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday-Thursday... A warming and drying trend is forecast through the extended period as surface high pressure gradually builds and height anomalies increase aloft. Most areas reach the 80s by Wednesday and Thursday with highs spreading 5-10 degrees above the daily normal. Northeast winds around 5-10 mph on Tuesday become light out of the south on Wednesday before shifting offshore on Thursday. Light flow should allow a weak sea breeze to develop each afternoon. There is low confidence for an isolated shower along the immediate coast on Tuesday. Otherwise, dry conditions persist.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

North winds around 5-10 kts gradually veer onshore into Saturday as high pressure pushes into the western Atlantic. Poor to hazardous boating conditions develop Sunday as winds increase (15-25 kts) and turn south ahead of the next cold front. Seas build 5-6 ft offshore Sunday. The front passes the local waters Sunday night and into early Monday with winds shifting north and diminishing to 10-15 kts Monday afternoon. Building high pressure should then limit winds around 10 kts into mid week, but an increasing swell will build seas 5-7 ft over portions of the Gulf Stream Tuesday. Low rain chances (~20%) are forecast across the waters today and Saturday, increasing Sunday (30-50%) and especially on Sunday night (70-90%).

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 625 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR condiions prevailing. Light northerly winds veer NE and increase to around 8-12 kts this afternoon, as a sea breeze develops. Winds then slacken near sunset. Dry conditions continue through Saturday, with winds becoming increasingly onshore.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light north-northeast winds today gradually turn more onshore into Saturday as high pressure moves into the western Atlantic. Breezy and gusty south winds then build on Sunday as the next cold front approaches the region. Scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon with the greatest coverage of showers and isolated storms forecast Sunday night and into early Monday as the front passes central Florida. Widespread rainfall totals generally remain less than a half inch.

Conditions remain favorable for patchy fog early this morning with visibility reductions already observed across portions of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Localized visibilities of a half-mile or less will be possible, quickly improving after sunrise.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 53 74 58 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 77 56 78 60 / 0 0 10 0 MLB 74 57 75 60 / 0 10 20 10 VRB 75 58 75 60 / 0 10 20 10 LEE 76 52 78 59 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 76 53 77 59 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 77 55 78 60 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 76 56 76 60 / 0 10 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.