textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 254 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A high risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches this afternoon, and will likely be extended through tomorrow. Nice weather is deceiving, please remain out of the surf today.

- While most places will remain dry, there is a 30-50% chance for showers and isolated storms along the Treasure Coast this afternoon. There is also a very low risk for heavy downpours, particularly on the coast south of St Lucie Inlet.

- Steadily warmer each day through the weekend, with highs approaching records by Sunday. Noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday, with temperatures forecast to be below normal through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Today-Tonight... High pressure aloft will remain in place, with shortwave energy traversing across the peninsula through the period. At the surface, a stationary boundary will meander between the Bahamas and southeast FL coast. This boundary coupled with increased moisture (Forecast PW values around 1.3-1.6" across the Treasure Coast) will result in rain chances remaining across the area today, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward, in the onshore flow. Expected rain amounts will remain around 0.01-0.25" today. Rain chances today will be low to medium (20-30 percent) south of Cape Canaveral, and a medium (30-50%) chance along the Treasure Coast, with the highest across the Martin county coast. Current guidances has backed off lightning storm potential over land areas this afternoon. Given the trend in models and current observations, have kept lightning chances over the Atlantic waters and taken them out over land areas for this afternoon. Shower chances will linger into tonight, with a low (20%) chance of rain at the coast, mainly from Fort Pierce southward.

Despite the cloudy conditions, temperatures will continue the warming trend today. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s. There is a low chance of patchy fog late tonight into early Friday morning, mainly across the interior, west of I-95. However confidence is not high at this time due to the cloudy conditions. A High risk of rip currents remains at all area beaches through today.

Friday-Sunday... High pressure will weaken through late week, but continue to maintain some control over the local weather. At the surface, a stationary front will push into the Deep South and into the Florida Panhandle on Friday before slowly shifting across North Florida on Saturday. A low pressure system with an accompanying cold front will move into the deep south Saturday night into Sunday morning before the cold front slowly moves into North Florida through the day on Sunday and continue to slowly shift southward through the night. Model guidance has slowed down the front slightly, with the front forecast to reach our far northern CWA, or remain just to the north, around day break Monday. Locally, onshore winds will continue through Saturday with speeds around 10 mph before veering south to southwest and increasing to 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph, on Sunday. While most areas will remain dry through the weekend, isolated showers are forecast along the coast from Cape Canaveral southward and as far inland as Lake Okeechobee each day through Saturday. Dry conditions are forecast during the day on Sunday, with a return of showers on Sunday night. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers from Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee northward Sunday night, starting across the north and steading progressing southward through the night.

Warming trend will continue through the weekend, increasing daily and peaking Sunday with temperatures forecast near record highs. Temperatures will be on average 10 degrees above normal for this time of year Friday and Saturday, and 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Sunday. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s along the coast and upper 70s to low 80s across the interior on Friday and Saturday, and mid to upper 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to 60s each night. There will be a moderate to high risk of rip currents at all area beaches through the weekend. Always heed the advice of local beach safety officials and do not enter the ocean if there is a high risk of rip current development.

Monday-Thursday... The aforementioned cold front is currently forecast to push through our northern CWA Monday morning and will continue to shift southward through the day, reaching South Florida by late afternoon or early evening. Model trends have slowed down the frontal passage from previous runs, so will have to continue to monitor the timing of this system. High pressure will then build behind the front on Monday and continue through midweek. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement of the next front pushing through the local area mid/late next week. Locally, rain chances will continue on Monday along the frontal passage. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of showers along the coast and generally along and north of the I-4 corridor Monday morning, with rain chances generally pushing offshore Monday afternoon. However, isolated showers will continue to possible from Cape Canaveral southward into early Monday evening. Dry conditions are then forecast through mid/late week.

Breezy and gusty west to northwest winds will develop Monday with the frontal boundary, with speeds increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Winds will remain elevated along the coast Monday night, with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30mph possible at times. Noticeably cooler temperatures behind the front, with below normal temps forecast Monday and Tuesday before becoming more seasonable by mid/late week.

MARINE

Issued at 254 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Today-Monday... Poor boating conditions will linger across the Gulf Stream waters through tonight as 6 ft seas linger. High pressure will remain over the local waters for the next several days, however, the high will weaken into this weekend as it shifts southward. This will result in onshore flow persisting through Saturday, with speeds 10-15 KT. Isolated to scattered showers will persist, mainly over the Gulf Stream waters each day through Saturday. Seas will subside to 3-5ft Friday through Saturday.

On Sunday, low pressure gathers north of Florida, turning winds out of the south and increasing to 15-20 KT in the offshore waters. An attached cold front will then pass over the local waters on Monday, with winds turning northwest and increasing to 20-25 KT behind the front. This will cause seas to build up to 8ft on Sunday, and 10 ft on Monday. Dry conditions are forecast Sunday, with rain chances returning Sunday night and continuing through Monday, with scattered to numerous showers forecast. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed starting Sunday going through at least Monday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1240 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Weak coastal troughing offshore the Treasure Coast will promote greater cloud cover (occasional MVFR cigs through sunset) and a small chance for brief light showers (little impact) to the KMLB- KSUA corridor. This trough is expected to push further into the Atlantic with time overnight. Otherwise, generally VFR with light north to northeast winds are expected for the next 18 - 24 hours. There is some potential for patchy fog across northern and inland portions of the forecast area; however, confidence at this juncture is low. For now, opted to include MIFG and a few TEMPOs where chances for brief VISBY reductions are greatest (40 - 60%).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 57 77 59 76 / 0 10 0 10 MCO 58 81 61 81 / 0 10 0 10 MLB 61 77 61 78 / 10 10 0 20 VRB 62 79 62 79 / 10 20 10 20 LEE 55 80 58 79 / 0 10 0 10 SFB 57 80 59 80 / 0 10 0 10 ORL 58 81 61 80 / 0 10 0 10 FPR 61 80 61 79 / 10 20 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.