textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Boating conditions will rapidly become hazardous behind a passing cold front this afternoon. Don't be fooled by favorable morning conditions.

- Turning noticeably cooler tonight and Monday; Windy along the coast tonight. - Rain chances increase midweek followed by sharply colder temperatures late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Today-Tonight...Patchy dense fog will continue to be possible through early this morning. However, higher clouds streaming across the area, and increasing boundary layer winds across northern portions of east central Florida should help limit coverage. Any fog should lift by mid-morning. A cold front will approach central Florida and move through the region this afternoon. Isolated to scattered light showers are forecast to develop along and ahead of this boundary, with a 20-30% chance for showers into the late morning and afternoon, mainly north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Model guidance has this activity diminishing as it pushes farther south of Orlando.

While winds will start off out of the west around 5-10 mph this morning, winds will quickly pick up behind the front out of the N/NW this afternoon increasing to 15-20 mph along the coast and 10-15 mph across the interior. Gusts are forecast to reach up to 25-30 mph. Then into tonight, winds increase further along the coast, becoming breezy to windy, especially along the barrier islands. Northerly winds between 20-25 mph and gusts to around 30 mph are forecast. Some occasional gusts to 35 mph may occur along the coast, but are not expected to be frequent enough for a Wind Advisory. Across the interior, wind speeds will remain up to 10-15 mph with gusts at times to 20-25 mph. These rapidly increasing northerly winds will also lead to a developing strong southward- flowing longshore current at area beaches this afternoon into tonight, and have issued a Beach Hazard Statement along the coast for these conditions.

With the front pushing into northern central Florida earlier in the afternoon and increasing cloud cover, highs near to north of Orlando are only forecast to reach into the 70s. However, to the south, max temps should again rise into the low 80s. Vero Beach and Fort Pierce are forecast to be within a couple degrees of their record highs today, so can't rule out another tied or broken record at these sites. Temperatures turn much cooler into tonight behind the front, falling into the 40s near to northwest of I-4 and in the 50s across much of the rest of the region. Monday-Tuesday...Winds will veer onshore and gradually decrease into early this week. After the much cooler start to Monday morning, highs are forecast to be near to slightly below normal in the afternoon, ranging from the mid to upper 60s near to north of Orlando and in the low to mid 70s to the south. Lows Tuesday morning will be similar to the night prior, but with weaker winds. Afternoon highs will then be slightly warmer and closer to normal values, in the low to mid 70s for most locations, except upper 60s across much of Lake and Volusia counties. It will be mostly dry early this week, but the developing onshore flow should eventually lead to some isolated showers developing over the coastal waters, and a few of these may be able to push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast.

Wednesday-Saturday...Moisture and rain chances increase into midweek well ahead of a strong cold front moving into the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday and as it pushes through the area Thursday. PoPs increase to 40-50% Wednesday, 50-60% Wednesday night and continue around 30- 50% on Thursday. While rainfall is welcome due to the much drier than normal conditions of late, rainfall totals don't look to be enough to alleviate any of the ongoing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions across east central FL. Current ECMWF ensemble guidance only gives around around a 40-50% chance for totals greater than 0.50 inches from Wednesday-Thursday. Dry conditions then forecast behind the front Friday and Saturday.

Highs will be near to cooler than normal through midweek from increasing cloud cover/rain chances and as strong cold front moves through Thursday, ranging from mid 60s to low 70s for much of the area on Wednesday and in the 60s Thursday. It will then turn much colder than normal behind the front Thursday night, with lows in the 30s and freezing temperatures possible, mainly northwest of I-4. Wind chill values early Friday morning are currently forecast to drop as low as the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs on Friday then forecast in the low to mid 60s for most locations. Turning chilly, but likely not as cold into Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s and highs on Saturday rise into the upper 60s to low 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Today-Tonight...Boating conditions will start off favorable this morning, but boaters should be prepared for conditions rapidly deteoriating and becoming hazardous this afternoon behind a passing cold front. Winds will become northerly and quickly increase to 20-25 knots behind the passing front through this afternoon, with these speeds persisting into tonight. This will build seas up to 6-9 feet into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at 1 PM this afternoon across the nearshore waters of Volusia and Brevard counties expanding southward to the Treasure Coast waters late this afternoon.

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible with the passing front across the waters today.

Monday-Thursday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist as winds veer north-northeast and gradually decrease from 15-20 knots to 10-15 knots in the afternoon. Seas will linger up to 7-9 feet across the gulf stream waters Monday. Boating conditions then gradually improve into Tuesday, with N/NE winds decreasing to 5-10 knots and seas falling to 3-5 feet. Boating conditions will remain generally favorable through Wednesday and then a strong cold front will move through the area Thursday, with W/NW winds increasing and boating conditions deteriorating.

Isolated showers will continue to be possible into early this week across the waters, with coverage of showers and the potential for a few storms increasing into midweek.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1248 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Model guidance has backed off a bit from fog development into Sunday morning. But have kept TEMPO at LEE from 09-13Z with MVFR VIS and IFR CIGs since that has the greatest potential. A cold front is forecast to approach the area this afternoon, moving southward through the day. MVFR CIGs possible out ahead of the front, particularly at LEE and DAB. Light and variable winds will become westerly in the morning before veering north-northwest and becoming breezy in the afternoon behind the front. Gusts to 25 knots will be possible. Isolated showers are forecast at the interior terminals and from DAB to MLB along the coast along and ahead of the front. Lingering shower activity is expected to diminish by 00Z. Breezy north-northwest winds with gusts 18-25 KT possible are forecast through tonight (Sunday).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 50 65 52 / 30 0 10 10 MCO 78 51 69 53 / 20 0 10 10 MLB 79 56 71 58 / 20 0 10 10 VRB 82 58 72 58 / 10 10 10 20 LEE 72 45 66 47 / 30 0 0 10 SFB 76 49 68 51 / 30 0 10 10 ORL 76 51 68 53 / 20 0 10 10 FPR 83 58 73 58 / 10 10 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ570-572.