textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

- A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Central Florida's Atlantic beaches today. Please stay out of the ocean.

- The next chance (20-40%) of showers and storms arrives on Wednesday afternoon. There is a low, conditional threat for a couple of strong storms with wind gusts up to 50 mph and coin- sized hail. Widespread heavy rain is not expected.

- We still anticipate the coolest air so far this fall to arrive in Central Florida from Friday night through early Sunday. Wind chills of 40-45 degrees are forecast Saturday and Sunday morning from Greater Orlando northward.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

The weather pattern near Florida has changed little over the last 24 hours. A weak subtropical jet extends from Texas to Georgia, south of a quasi-zonal polar jet passing over the Northern U.S. The air is still quite dry, especially from 850-700 mb. Slightly higher moisture resides near and offshore of Southwest Florida.

A ripple of energy in the subtropical jet is still expected to eject from Texas into the Southeast later today through Wednesday. The jet stream configuration will become slightly more favorable for synoptic-scale lift during this period. Some of the moisture just southwest of the area is forecast to move northward over the next 48 hours, but guidance still disagrees on overall moisture return and available instability on Wednesday.

The ingredients remain in place for the well-advertised pattern change late this week. As blocking develops over the northern latitudes of N America, significant amplification of the longwave pattern will begin late on Wednesday. Eventually, a deep trough will gather over the Eastern U.S. by Thursday. A vigorous shortwave digging through the developing trough will promote surface cyclogenesis over the Ohio Valley. As the low moves toward the Delmarva Peninsula, it is expected to force a strong cold front toward Florida. The front should arrive late Thursday and pass the entire district by Friday morning.

Ensembles are in excellent agreement with pattern evolution through at least Saturday, when PWAT (moisture) values fall to 30-50% of normal and 925 mb temperatures dip to +6 to +10 deg C. This will represent the most significant continental air mass intrusion into the Florida Peninsula so far this autumn.

Guidance slowly moves the large trough eastward this weekend, with the lowest 500 mb heights moving off the Northeast U.S. coast by late Sunday. Surface high pressure will follow in its wake, its center remaining well north of Florida. Once the high moves east of our longitude, onshore flow should redevelop on Sunday, allowing temperature moderation to begin.

Guidance quickly breaks down the high-latitude block next week, allowing the flow to become progressive across the U.S. Therefore, the upcoming cooldown this weekend is not expected to last long, and unsettled weather also may not wait too long to return. For example, just yesterday the ECMWF-AIFS ensemble was nearly alone with its indication of another shortwave within the subtropical jet reaching the northern Gulf in about a week. Cluster analysis now reveals that nearly half of physics-based members support this solution.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Status-quo weather is favored for most of us on this Tuesday. Aside from some patchy morning fog, we expect partly sunny and warm weather today with highs in the low to mid 80s. Beaches will still be a concern, as the lingering swell continues to produce a high risk of numerous rip currents. Please stay out of the ocean.

With subtle moisture return expected over South Florida today, we have introduced a small (20%) chance of showers near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon and evening. Most areas will stay dry through tonight, however.

Wednesday - Thursday night...

We'll be keeping an eye on a disturbance approaching from the Gulf on Wednesday. Moisture will be increasing a bit, but the extent is in question, with significant disagreement in the guidance. This adds up to a 20-40% chance of afternoon and early evening showers and storms, with the highest coverage along the coast south of Cape Canaveral. A few models, led by the ECMWF, have ample instability in place. Others, such as the HRRR, are more stable. With moderate effective shear profiles, there is a conditional chance of a strong storm Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds of 45-50 mph and coin-sized hail would be the primary hazards.

On Thursday, breezy westerly winds are forecast to develop, with drier air mixing to the surface in the afternoon. Only isolated shower chances persist through Thursday night, and mostly over our southern communities. Rainfall amounts through Thursday night look rather light, with only a 1-in-10 chance of exceeding a half inch along the coast from Melbourne southward.

The strong cold front will not arrive until Thursday night. Despite more cloud cover, highs on Wednesday should reach the low to mid 80s with upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday.

Friday - Weekend...

With the cold front quickly marching off to our south, winds turn northwesterly on Friday and Saturday and stay breezy from time to time. This will usher cooler and drier air into the area, with the coolest air arriving early Saturday.

Under clearing skies, highs on Friday should range from the upper 60s to low 70s, but dip on Saturday into the mid to upper 60s. Lows Friday and Saturday nights will be chilly, in the mid/upper 40s except low 50s along the coast from Cape Canaveral and points southward. Our coldest wind chills, near and northwest of I-4, should reach the 40-45 degree range. There is still a 15-20% chance for wind chills to reach the upper 30s near and north of Greater Orlando, especially on Saturday morning.

As winds turn onshore, Sunday looks a little milder by afternoon (low/mid 70s).

Early Next Week...

As brisk onshore flow becomes established and deepens, moisture should return. Combined with a potential disturbance approaching from the west, 20-40% shower chances reenter the picture by Monday or Tuesday. It's too early to determine whether heavy rainfall may occur. Near-normal temperatures are forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

High pressure should drift across the local area over the next couple of days, with lighter winds and improved boating conditions. An upper-air disturbance should spark a few showers and storms on Wednesday, with isolated strong and gusty storms possible. Behind a strong cold front late Thursday, winds increase, and seas build on Friday. Hazardous boating conditions return from Friday through Saturday, especially offshore.

Light/variable winds today, becoming onshore up to 10 kt along the coast by afternoon. Winds turn SSW up to 10 kt on Wednesday, then W 10-15 kt on Thursday. Fresh northwest winds develop Thu night into Friday, 15-25 kt early Friday morning. Another surge of fresh NW winds may occur Friday night and early Saturday. Seas 3-5 ft today, subsiding to 2-3 ft on Wed/Thu. Seas on Fri/Sat build to 3-4 ft nearshore, and up to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 609 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Continued mainly VFR. Will continue to monitor for patchy fog formation during the early morning, but confidence is low. A weak pgrad remains in place, thus light/variable winds continue with transition onshore (5-10 kts) at the coast in the afternoon with sea breeze development. A few showers may be possible later today surrounding Lake Okee, but confidence not there yet for any of this activity surviving near the Treasure Coast terminals. Gradual moistening late today and tonight with an increase in cloud-cover later in the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Fire weather thresholds should remain out of reach through Friday. By Saturday, much drier air arrives over Central Florida. RH minima are forecast to fall to 35-40% over the interior from Osceola County northward, with northwest winds around 10 mph. Moisture slowly returns beginning Sunday into next week.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

While a few storms may develop on Wednesday, widespread heavy rain is not forecast. There is a 10% chance of localized rainfall amounts exceeding 1/2" along the Space and Treasure Coasts. The next significant rain chance should then hold off until early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 81 65 82 62 / 0 0 20 0 MCO 83 69 83 65 / 0 10 20 10 MLB 82 69 83 65 / 0 10 30 20 VRB 83 69 85 66 / 10 10 40 20 LEE 83 67 82 62 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 84 68 83 63 / 0 0 20 0 ORL 83 69 83 65 / 0 10 20 10 FPR 82 68 84 65 / 10 10 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.