textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Scattered to numerous storms are expected each afternoon and evening through the rest of the work week across Central Florida, with 50-70% chance of rain. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall, which may cause localized minor flooding in urban and low drainage areas.

- Storms will begin to focus more over the interior from this weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing the Atlantic sea breeze farther inland.

- Seasonably hot and humid. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 100 to 105 each day. When planning to be outdoors, hydrate well and consider taking frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure across the Atlantic and across the TX/SW US will remain in place today, with Florida residing between the two high pressures. Shortwave energy will traverse near and over Florida through the day. At the surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will slowly shift northward, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Locally, south to southwest flow will persist, with the east coast sea breeze forecast to form in the afternoon and push inland, turning the winds onshore. Moisture over the local area will be near to slightly above normal for this time of year, with PW values ranging from 1.7-2.1". this coupled with energy aloft will support convection this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms have already formed around the I-95 corridor this afternoon along the east coast sea breeze. Additional showers and lightning storms are forecast to form across the interior along boundary collisions between sea breezes and outflow boundaries by late afternoon and into the early evening. Coverage of showers and lightning storms today will be medium to high, with 50-60 percent chance of rain along the coast, and 60-70 percent chance of rain across the interior.

The environment supports storms with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1800-2500 J/kg), ample buoyancy (lifted index of -4 to -7), sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 800-1050 J/kg). Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall of 1-3 " which may lead to minor localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. Any lingering activity will diminish around midnight, with activity across the Atlantic waters continuing through the overnight. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices of 100-105F. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to give a tropical wave in the Atlantic a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next couple of days. While it is far too early to know whether this feature will affect the U.S., it's a reminder to be prepared as we head into peak hurricane season.

Thursday-Friday... Florida will remain situated between two upper level high pressure systems, one in the Atlantic and one over TX/SW US, as an upper level trough shift eastward towards the eastern US. Shortwave energy will continue to traverse the base of this trough over the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula. At the surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will slowly shift northward, with the axis remaining over Florida. Locally, offshore (S- SW) flow will persist with speeds 5-10 mph each day. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, turning the winds onshore (E-SE) as the sea breeze pushes inland. Moisture will remain near to slightly above normal, with PW values 1.8-2.3" each day. This will support a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance of showers and storms through the period. Highest coverage will be across the interior each afternoon and evening where the sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions are forecast to occur. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be seasonably hot and humid into late week, with overnight lows remaining warm and muggy.

Saturday-Wednesday... Upper level high pressure over the Atlantic and the SW US will merge over the weekend and remain over the southern US/Gulf/Atlantic into early next week. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will continue to shift northward towards the Carolinas into early next week. A frontal boundary will slide southward into the Deep South/Northern Florida this weekend before stalling, eventually becoming diffuse by early next week. Locally, winds will shift onshore (east to southeast) this weekend and remain through at least mid next week as the surface high pressure moves northward of Florida. Moisture across the local area will remain near to above normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.1". Daily afternoon showers and lightning storms are forecast to continue, with scattered storms forming each day along the advancing east coast sea breeze, with additional showers and storms forming across the interior. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior, where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur each evening. Storm hazards will be similar to what they are today through late week. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot and humid with overnight lows warm and muggy.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Today-Sunday... Generally favorable boating conditions expected. Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, reaching the local waters by Thursday and moving north of the area by the weekend. Light south to southwest flow will persist through Friday, with winds becoming onshore (east to southeast) and increasing to around 12 KT each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Winds will then shift onshore into the weekend as the high pressure moves north of the area. Seas 1-2ft before increasing to 2- 3ft this weekend. A few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong wind gusts remain possible through Friday. Scattered onshore showers and storms will then be possible into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Winds transitioning onshore with development/inland push of the ECSB, and eventual collision with its WCSB counterpart late day/early evening across the interior. SCT-NMRS coverage late today with deep moisture in place across ECFL and this trend continuing into Thu. Have inherited "VC" wording and TEMPO groups for MVFR convection. Will adjust as necessary AFT 00Z depending on evening trends. Primary concerns for aviation include local wind gusts 35-45 kts, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. Light winds tonight and rinse/repeat for Thu.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 91 74 91 / 30 50 30 60 MCO 75 94 76 94 / 50 60 30 60 MLB 75 91 76 91 / 30 60 20 50 VRB 74 91 75 91 / 20 60 20 50 LEE 74 92 75 92 / 50 60 30 60 SFB 75 93 75 93 / 30 60 30 60 ORL 75 93 76 93 / 40 60 30 60 FPR 74 91 75 91 / 20 60 20 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.