textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged!

- While most locations will remain dry, isolated coastal showers, with scattered inland showers and lightning storms in the afternoons and evenings, continue through the weekend.

- High temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, but peak heat index values climb to near or above 100 degrees this weekend into next week, as moisture increases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Current-Tonight...Max temps this afternoon in the U80s at the coast with 90F to L90s inland and peak heat indices generally in the M- U90s. Surface high pressure ridging across the western Atlc north of central FL will continue to promote an onshore flow. ESE winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph (esp behind local sea breeze) will become light during the evening and overnight. A weak mid/upper level low continues to spin near the Bahamas. Isolated Atlc showers that drifted onshore this morning will continue to push into the interior this afternoon with a few lightning storms across the interior, though most locations will remain dry. Activity will shift into WCFL ahead of sunset, with additional light shower activity across the adjacent coastal waters overnight. A few of these showers may breach the coast. Overnight lows above normal in the 70s with conditions muggy.

Fri-Thu...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified. The rinse and repeat forecast continues into at least early next week. The surface ridge off of the Carolina coast begins to push southward towards the Bahamas late in the period. Meanwhile, the mid/upper level low continues to weaken as it moves eastward Fri into this weekend, with ridging aloft gradually building over the Florida peninsula. Expect east to southeast flow to continue, increasing to 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25 mph, each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes well inland. Will need to monitor for a slight increase in onshore flow Mon/Tue, as the pgrad tightens with the approach of a weak front - though this will remain well north of the area. High temperatures in the U80s-L90s continue, with overnight lows in the 70s and perhaps L80s at the immediate coast. Peak heat indices creep into the U90s-L100s as moisture increases this weekend and early next week.

Onshore flow will lead to a dominant ECSB, with the highest chances for convection over the western half of the peninsula. Will still see ISOLD-SCT showers/storms develop along the sea breeze in late mornings and early afternoons, before pushing westward into the evenings. PoPs 20-30% through Fri increase slightly up to 40% on Sat and 50% Sun (interior), as moisture builds (PWATs 1.60-1.85"). At the coast, ISOLD, onshore-moving showers overnight and during the mornings continue through much of the period. Chances overall remain low and most areas will remain dry through at least early next week. Main threats with any storms will be gusty winds, lightning strikes, and brief heavy downpours, though warming 500 mb temperatures will limit the strong storm threat this weekend into next week.

Models hint at a pattern change late next week, possibly leading to wetter conditions and this may depend on position/strength of ridging near the region.

MARINE

Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Persistent pattern for the next several days with high pressure ridging to the north providing for a mostly onshore flow with ISOLD to WDLY SCT showers and perhaps an ISOLD lightning storm. Some of this activity will be onshore-moving at night or during the morning hours. The ECSB will develop and push well inland each day with generally no push-back of storms to the coast. Boating conditions mostly favorable, though onshore winds each afternoon will be 10-15 kts and occasional gusts to 20-25 kts along the coast behind the local sea breeze. There could be occasional wind surges well offshore late day into evening as the ridge drifts slowly southward early next week where speeds over the Gulf Stream approach 14-18 kts at times prompting short-fused poor boating. Seas 2-4 ft into the weekend and early next week, up to 5 ft well offshore surrounding wind surges.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection. SE flow is sufficient enough to shift the evening sea breeze collision west of the ECFL terminals after 23Z, but ISO TSRA/SHRA expected to develop along and behind the east coast sea breeze as it moves inland between 19Z-00Z, mainly west of the coastal terminals. Can't rule out SHRA pushing back towards KDAB-KTIX through 22Z or so. Coverage/ confidence of TSRA still too low for TEMPOs at KMCO and other inland terminals. ISO SHRA that have already developed have been nearly stationary, and any TSRA/+SHRA that develop over terminals could result in prolonged convective impacts. SHRA could linger as late as 04Z, then mostly dry conditions inland. ISO onshore moving -SHRA possible from KVRB-KSUA tonight. Near identical convective evolution expected Friday.

SE- ESE winds 5-10 kts at inland terminals, around 10 kts at KDAB- KTIX, and 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts at KMLB- KSUA this afternoon settle to 5-10 kts after 02Z and 5 kts or less late. Winds picks back up to 7-13 kts Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 89 76 89 / 10 20 0 20 MCO 73 91 74 91 / 10 30 0 40 MLB 78 88 79 88 / 10 10 10 20 VRB 78 88 79 89 / 10 10 0 20 LEE 75 92 75 92 / 30 30 10 40 SFB 74 92 75 92 / 10 30 0 40 ORL 74 91 75 91 / 10 30 0 40 FPR 76 87 78 88 / 10 10 0 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.