textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Breezy/gusty south winds develop Sunday afternoon. Combined with warm temperatures, very sensitive fire weather conditions will result.

- Rain likely Sunday night with embedded storms. A few storms may contain strong wind gusts. This much needed rainfall will not have a significant impact on our drought.

- Only slightly cooler Monday with lingering showers. Then warming back up mid week and quickly drying out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today-Tonight... Light north to northeast winds this morning shift further east into the afternoon as high pressure centered over the Carolina coast pushes into the western Atlantic. Most areas remain dry with isolated showers generally confined to the Atlantic waters south of the Cape. Have kept only a small PoP (~20%) along the immediate Treasure Coast this afternoon. Skies remain mostly sunny with cloud cover increasing this evening and into the overnight. Onshore flow should keep coastal temperatures in the low to mid 70s while temperatures increase into the upper 70s and lower 80s further inland.

Sunday-Monday... Breezy and gusty southerly flow develops Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west-northwest. While most areas will remain dry through much of the morning and early afternoon Sunday, high-res guidance has shown the best chances (20-30%) for isolated to scattered showers developing across portions of the Treasure Coast and Southern Brevard. More widespread coverage (70- 90%) of showers and isolated lightning storms increases north and west of the I-4 corridor into Sunday evening, spreading southward through the overnight hours ahead of the front. An uncertain storm environment exists Sunday night, with an overall lack of instability. However, surface to 1km shear profiles around 35-40 kts could allow for isolated stronger storms where updrafts develop. Therefore, a conditional threat for strong to marginally severe storms exists into the nighttime hours for areas primarily north of a line from Titusville to Lake Kissimmee. Even in the absence of stronger storms, low level wind profiles will be supportive of showers producing wind gusts up to 45 mph. Outside of storms, widespread rainfall accumulations generally remain less than one-half inch. While there is high confidence for the greatest rain chances to occur overnight Sunday and into early Monday, there remains uncertainty in rain chances through the daytime period on Monday. The current forecast carries a 20-40% chance of rain across much of the area into Monday afternoon to more broadly capture the uncertainty. However, slightly better consistency among the most recent ensemble members and deterministic solutions are starting to increase confidence in a faster drying solution, especially further north.

Despite increasing cloud cover, southerly flow ahead of the front will allow temperatures to climb into the low 80s across much of east central Florida on Sunday. A temperature gradient will then exist on Monday as northerly winds around 10 mph gradually spread central Florida behind the front. While high temperatures fall into the mid 70s near and north of I-4, values should continue to hold in the low 80s across the south in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Low temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s Sunday morning more widely range the low 60s on Monday morning.

Tuesday-Friday... Surface high pressure slides into the western Atlantic Tuesday with the western flank of the ridge axis settling towards south Florida mid to late week. A warming trend is forecast each day with no mentionable rainfall. Highs in the mid to upper 70s across much of the area on Tuesday increase to spread the low to mid 80s by Thursday. Low temperatures hold steady in the low to mid 50s each morning.

MARINE

Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions today with onshore winds around 10 knots and seas 2-3 ft. Deteriorating boating conditions are expected on Sunday as winds increase out of the south ahead of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for the offshore waters (20-60 nm) at 10 AM Sunday as winds increase to around 20-25 kts. Small craft should exercise caution nearshore (0-20 nm) for south winds 15-20 kts. Increasing winds will gradually build seas 5- 7 ft in the Gulf Stream into Sunday evening. Winds slowly veer offshore into Monday morning, before diminishing 10-15 kts out of the north Monday afternoon behind the front.

Isolated showers are forecast across the waters today, primarily south of the Cape. Showers increase into Sunday, becoming widespread in coverage (70-90%) Sunday night ahead of the front. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Sunday night, particularly from the Cape northward. Even in the absence of storms, showers will be capable of wind gusts of 34 kts. Rain chances linger over the waters Monday before drying Tuesday and into mid week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 631 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Scattered clouds around 030 producing occasional, brief MVFR conditions just prior to sunrise this morning will lift over the next hour or so, as will continuing MIFG at FPR and SUA. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing. Easterly winds 8-12 kts this afternoon will veer southerly into Sunday. Winds slacken towards sunset, with breezy conditions expected by mid-Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. Sustained winds near 15 kts, with gusts to 25 kts are forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Breezy and gusty winds increase out of the south on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west-northwest. Min RH values are forecast around 45% over much of the interior. So Red Flag conditions are not forecast but Very Good to Excellent dispersion values will combine with very warm temperatures to produce a very sensitive fire weather day. Widespread rain chances (70-90%) build overnight Sunday, but total rainfall amounts generally remain between 0.25-0.75 inch for most areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 58 81 60 / 0 10 50 90 MCO 79 61 83 63 / 0 10 30 90 MLB 74 60 81 60 / 10 10 40 80 VRB 76 61 81 60 / 20 20 30 70 LEE 78 59 82 61 / 0 0 50 90 SFB 78 60 83 63 / 0 0 40 90 ORL 79 61 83 63 / 0 0 40 90 FPR 76 59 81 60 / 20 20 20 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572-575.