textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Scattered to locally numerous afternoon and evening showers and lightning storms will persist into this week. A few strong storms will be possible each day, producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Currently-Tonight...Low level offshore flow persists but is generally weak and should see the east coast sea breeze push inland near to just west of the I-95 corridor. Already starting to see some isolated to scattered showers/storms developing across the area with daytime heating. However, greatest storm coverage looks to be toward late afternoon/evening, generally near to southeast of I-4 corridor and near/inland of I-95 where sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions are favored. Westerly steering winds decrease through late day, and while some shifts in storms back to the coast will occur, storm motion may still be slow and erratic across the area.

Deep moisture (PW 2-2.2") and slow storm motion will lead to torrential downpours with persistent storms, producing a quick 2-4 inches of rainfall locally in a 60-90 min period. While this will mostly produce minor flooding issues, there may be an isolated spot or two that sees totals between 4-6 inches, which may lead to a localized flash flooding threat. Therefore, a Marginal Risk (5-14%) of excessive rainfall exists across much of east central Florida this afternoon and evening. 15Z sounding from the Cape shows some pockets of drier air aloft, which will also support strong gusts to 40-50 mph and frequent lightning from a few stronger storms. However, as is usual with summer convection, can't completely rule localized damaging gusts to 60 mph from a storm or two. Temps at 500mb are around -6 to -7C, which may also lead to isolated reports of small hail.

Convection diminishes and shifts slowly offshore through late evening, with drier conditions forecast overnight. Remaining warm and humid with lows in the mid to upper 70s for much of the area tonight.

Monday-Wednesday...Subtropical ridge axis continues to remain south of the area through early to midweek, continuing offshore (W/SW) low level winds across the area. PW values of 1.8-2.0 inches will remain sufficient enough to support scattered to locally numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Should still see the east coast sea breeze form each afternoon, but the offshore winds should stall the sea breeze near to just inland of the I-95 corridor, with greatest coverage of convection focusing toward the coast. This activity will shift offshore each day, with a few stronger storms continuing to be possible. Main storm threats will continue to be strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall producing minor flooding.

Hot and humid conditions will persist, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values reaching 100-107 degrees each day. Little relief will occur overnight, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. This will all contribute to a Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the region each day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

Thursday-Sunday...Mid-level ridge across the western Atlantic will nudge northwest across Florida through late week before shifting back south as a passing disturbance aloft crosses the southeastern United States. At the surface a weak frontal boundary will slide southward toward north Florida and stall, keeping ridge axis either near or just south of the region. This will continue to produce scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms each day, focused toward the eastern side of the Florida peninsula. Low level winds may be able to become more southerly into late week allowing the east coast sea breeze to push a little farther inland and focusing late day boundary collisions west of I-95. However, an offshore steering flow will still help push scattered showers/storms back to the coast and offshore through each evening.

No significant change to the heat into late week and weekend, with highs still above normal in the low to mid 90s and humid conditions still producing mostly 100-107 heat index values each day. This will continue a Moderate to Major HeatRisk each day.

MARINE

Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Mostly favorable boating conditions forecast to continue through the upcoming work week. Subtropical ridge axis will remain south of the waters, leading to an offshore flow pattern through at least midweek. W/SW winds in the morning will become S/SE into the afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze forms and shifts inland each day. Wind speeds will generally be less than 15 knots, but may briefly increase to 15-18 knots offshore each evening. Seas will range from 1-3 feet.

Main concern for boaters will be for scattered offshore moving storms, primarily from mid afternoon through the evening hours that will continue to be a threat each day (including through this evening). Main storm threats will be frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 34 kts, and torrential downpours. Winds and seas will be locally higher in the vicinity of any storms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 731 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

TS may not be done for the evening for KMCO and other Orlando area terminals. Waiting on an outflow boundary INVOF the area to push eastward before sounding the all clear. Any activity that develops on this boundary could also impact the coast from KTIX- KMLB again. Model guidance not much help, so will need to AMD TAFs as TS develops (or doesn't). ISO -SHRA INVOF KVRB-KSUA, and chances for redevelopment of SHRA/TSRA here are very low. Quiet overnight once convection dissipates or moves offshore. Winds become light/VRB overnight, then pick back up to around 10 kts from the WSW-SW Monday morning. The east coast sea breeze will be pinned along most of the coast, currently only forecast to make a slow/late inland push from KMLB-KSUA, earlier to the south, shifting winds SE-SSE at 5-10 kts. Low confidence in convective evolution tomorrow afternoon-evening as chaotic storm boundaries will again drive TS development, but general model trends call for TS to initially develop INVOF of the northern/inland terminals after 18Z (SHRA could pop as early as 16Z), then work east and south, colliding with the pinned sea breeze near the coast in the late evening and triggering additional TS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 92 77 92 / 30 60 30 50 MCO 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 50 MLB 77 93 77 93 / 50 60 40 60 VRB 75 93 75 93 / 40 60 40 60 LEE 78 91 77 92 / 10 30 10 30 SFB 77 93 77 94 / 30 50 20 50 ORL 77 92 77 93 / 30 40 20 50 FPR 75 92 74 92 / 40 60 30 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.