textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

- East Central Florida residents and visitors should take advantage of today's pleasant weather to prepare for multiple nights of hard freezes this weekend.

- Very windy conditions develop Saturday with strong frequent wind gusts 35 to 45 mph; occasional gusts over 50 mph possible. Preparations for the cold should be made before these winds arrive.

- A Freeze Watch and a rare Extreme Cold Watch have been issued for all of east central Florida Saturday night into Sunday. Dangerous wind chill values as low as 7 degrees and a hard freeze likely with low temperatures in the 20s Sunday morning. Additional watches/warnings for the following nights are likely.

- A Gale Watch has been issued for rapidly deteriorating and dangerous boating conditions Saturday afternoon and night as winds increase and seas build; strong gale-force gusts are likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Today-Tonight...Today will be only "warm" day (near normal temperatures) until mid-next week, and a prime opportunity to prepare for the coming strong winds and arctic air outbreak this weekend. Weak high pressure over the area retreats offshore ahead of a low pressure system developing over and tracking across the Southeast. East- southerly winds over the Atlantic waters near The Bahamas will lift some moisture up towards Southeast Florida, which could support a few showers across our southern counties (rain chances 20% or less). Over land, mostly light and variable winds shift westerly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. This should gradually usher off the aforementioned showers. CAMs are oddly enthusiastic about some shower chances across the rest of the area later in the afternoon, but the environment generally doesn't support anything better than a silent 10% chance. More appreciable rain chances (such as they are at 20%) forecast late tonight into Saturday morning well ahead of the coming cold front.

Saturday..Significant winds and historic cold are expected this weekend. A sharp upper level trough diving down into the southeast will support substantial development of the previously mentioned low pressure system, which will rapidly deepen Saturday as the center pushes offshore the GA-SC-NC coasts and into the nearby Atlantic waters. The cold front associated with this system is forecast to pass quickly across the Florida peninsula through the day Saturday, preceded by a second round of isolated to scattered showers in the morning (if the overnight activity can be counted as a first round) as PWATs briefly increase to around 1" ahead of the boundary. Anyone hoping for rain for their lawns will need to wait for another front, as most spots will receive less than 0.10", though the southern counties might see up to around a quarter of an inch. Lightning storms are not forecast. Cloudy skies will accompany the front, but clear out shortly after the passage as very dry air arrives.

As the low rapidly deepens offshore the pressure gradient will quickly tighten, increasing west-northwesterly winds Saturday afternoon and evening to 20-30 mph with frequent gusts 35-45 mph, and there is a 20-30% chance for gusts to exceed 50 mph. Worth noting there are some timing discrepancies between the GFS and ECM, with the GFS being about 6 hours slower than the ECM. At the moment winds are forecast to "settle" to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph inland during the overnight, but will need to monitor forecast trends as there is potential for higher gusts in particular to linger on.

Strong cold air advection on the western side of the low will bring a slug of arctic air to Florida, causing temperatures Saturday to only reach the M50s-M60s around 2 PM before plummeting to L40s-L50s by sunset, with sub-freezing temperatures arriving in the northern counties prior to midnight. A hard freeze is forecast for all of East Central Florida for much of Saturday night and Sunday morning as temperatures continue to crash into the L-M20s across the interior, including all of the Orlando Metro Area, and the M-U20s along the coastal corridor. Forecast lows are 5-10 degrees below daily records for most locations (Orlando is forecast to be "only" 3 degrees below their record), and threatening the coldest temperatures for the month of February for all but Orlando. Combined with the strong and gusty northwest winds, wind chills be be bitterly cold during the day, and become dangerous in the evening and overnight as values drop into the 20s shortly after sunset, bottoming out in the single digits and teens late Saturday night into Sunday morning. An Extreme Cold Watch and a Freeze Watch remain in effect for all of East Central Florida from Saturday Night through midday Sunday. For context, last issuance of this product (called a Wind Chill Warning at the time) by NWS Melbourne was January of 2014, and only for Lake and Volusia counties. The last time all of East Central Florida was included in this warning was December of 2010.

People and pets with inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected. On that note, it will become increasingly difficult to secure any loose outdoor items or prepare vegetation for the anticipated hard freeze Saturday night due to the strong and gusty winds expected during the day. Thus, we encourage residents (and visitors) to make preparations for the cold weather before winds arrive, and prepare for multiple nights of dangerous cold!

Sunday...Winds won't diminish until later in the afternoon as the low starts to depart northeast, and breezy/gusty conditions are expected through the day. Combined with temperatures that will struggle to reach the M40s-L50s, wind chills will remain in the 20s-30s most of the day, only topping out in the U30s-M40s at the "warmest" part of the afternoon. Afternoon highs are forecast to range from a couple to nearly 10 degrees below daily record "cool highs". Very dry conditions will keep skies clear with plenty of sunshine, but sensitive to critical fire weather conditions may develop as a result of the low humidity and winds.

A second very cold night is forecast Sunday night into Monday morning, as temperatures once again sink into another hard freeze in the L-M20s for nearly all of East Central Florida (some southern barrier islands might fall short). While northwesterly winds are forecast to have further settled to 5-10 mph, this will still push wind chills down into the teens across most of the area. These dangerously cold temperatures will once again pose a significant risk of frostbite and hypothermia to people and pets, cause exposed pipes to freeze, and damage or kill non-cold-hardy plants.

Monday-Thursday...Cooler than normal and dry conditions will continue through mid next week. High pressure that had worked its way into the Gulf by Monday morning in the wake of the low pressure system shifts over Florida on Tuesday, then pushes offshore midweek ahead of our next weather system. There remains a threat for a third night of freezing temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning for at least portions of East Central Florida, and while winds will continue to diminish, wind chills dropping into the 20s are possible for most of the area that night as well. Freezing temperatures should be in the rear-view mirror by Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, but frost will become a concern. Wednesday will be our closest to normal day, before our next front is forecast for the latter half of next week. There are considerable differences between the global models' evolution of this system, but the next system won't have the same potency as the one we're currently preparing for. Some modest rain chances return ahead of the front, then cooler than normal but far from record cold late next week.

MARINE

Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Today...Generally favorable boating conditions before conditions deteriorate and become dangerous this weekend. Weak high pressure over Florida and the local Atlantic waters pushes offshore ahead of a low pressure system developing over and tracking across the Southeast. Light northerly winds will become variable at times through the morning, becoming to westerly to northwesterly 5-15 kts in the late morning to early afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft. Isolated showers will be possible across the southern and offshore waters.

Tonight-Sunday...Dangerous boating conditions through much of the weekend, and mariners should remain in port. The aforementioned low pressure system will rapdily deepen as it pushes offshore the GA-SC-NC coast Saturday, with the attendant cold front passing through Florida and the local Atlantic waters Saturday. Northwesterly winds increasing to 15-20 kts tonight ahead of the front further increase to 20-30 kts late Saturday morning behind the front, then surge to 30-40 kts Saturday night. Gusts will frequently reach high-end Gale strength, and occasional gusts to Storm-force cannot be ruled out Saturday night. The generally offshore winds will flatten seas near the coast some, but are still expected to build to 4-8 ft nearshore and 6-8 ft Saturday evening, reaching 6-10 ft nearshore and up to 16 ft in the Gulf Stream late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with occasionally higher seas. As the low lifts northeast Sunday winds will start to decrease, but remain 25-35 kts with higher gusts through much of the day Seas subside some but remain up to 8 ft in the nearshore waters and over 10 ft offshore.

Isolated to scattered showers will precede the front late tonight into early early Saturday morning, but lightning storms aren't forecast. There is potential for flurries over portions of the local Atlantic waters Saturday night.

A Gale Watch has been issued for all Central Florida Atlantic waters Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Afternoon, and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for all segments the rest of Sunday, and portions of the local waters through at least Monday.

Monday-Tuesday...High pressure builds towards Florida as the low departs, but poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger into Tuesday, especially larger seas in the Gulf Stream.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. A few light showers near SUA look to persist through the afternoon, before drier conditions return overnight. Westerly winds around 10 kts today become light towards sunset through around 12Z.

A strengthening low pressure system will drag a cold front through east central Florida on Saturday. A few light showers cannot be ruled out near sunrise from around SFB southward. Chances will diminish from north to south through the morning, though will linger along the Treasure Coast into early afternoon. Westerly winds increase after sunrise, becoming strong into the afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of east central Florida after 20Z. Sustained winds of 20-25 kts and gusts 30-35 kts are forecast. A few gusts to near 45 kts will be possible. Airport Weather Warnings for sustained winds may be needed at MCO and DAB. Strong winds will then continue through the overnight hours, as temperatures plummet.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Strong and gusty winds 35-45 mph, possibly over 50 mph Saturday afternoon will lead to containment issues of any fires. Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday as humidity drops below 35% while northwesterly winds remain around 15 mph with higher gusts. Winds decrease to 10 mph or less Monday, but fire weather conditions remain sensitive due to humidity values less than 30%.

CLIMATE

Issued at 635 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Sunday, February 1st: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb 30 1936 49 47 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 1-Feb 30 1979 50 52 1978 71 Sanford (SFB) 1-Feb 30 1965 51 46 1977 72 Orlando (MCO) 1-Feb 28 1936 51 48 1936 73 Melbourne (MLB) 1-Feb 32 1966 52 55 1948 72 Vero Beach (VRB) 1-Feb 29 1966 53 56 1966 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 1-Feb 32 1909 52 54 1936 74

Monday, February 2nd: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb 32 1980 50 51 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 2-Feb 29 1980 50 48 1980 71 Sanford (SFB) 2-Feb 33 1980 51 49 1980 72 Orlando (MCO) 2-Feb 32 1980 51 54 1951 73 Melbourne (MLB) 2-Feb 33 1980 52 55 1994 73 Vero Beach (VRB) 2-Feb 34 1980 53 55 1980 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 2-Feb 34 1980 52 57 1994 74

All Time February Records: RECORD RECORD LOWS COOL-HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 24 02/18/1958 43 02/09/1947 Leesburg (LEE) 23 02/26/1967 42 02/05/1996 Sanford (SFB) 25 02/18/1958 38 02/03/1951 Orlando (MCO) 19 02/07/1895 39 02/08/1895 Melbourne (MLB) 27 02/26/1967 43 02/09/1947 Vero Beach (VRB) 28 02/24/1989 46 02/09/1947 Fort Pierce (FPR) 25 02/05/1996 43 02/04/1917

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 46 56 23 45 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 49 58 25 46 / 20 20 0 0 MLB 49 63 23 48 / 20 20 0 0 VRB 48 63 26 49 / 20 30 0 0 LEE 46 55 22 45 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 47 57 24 45 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 49 57 25 45 / 10 20 0 0 FPR 47 64 25 50 / 20 30 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447- 547-647-747.

Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747.

Freeze Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447- 547-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ550- 552-555-570-572-575.