textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 140 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

- A Frost Advisory has been issued for areas west of I-95, in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM Thursday morning. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30s by daybreak.

- Gradually warmer into the weekend with daytime temperatures reaching the mid 70s on Saturday.

- Breezy on Saturday before a cold front arrives Saturday night into Sunday, bringing the chance of showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Now-Tonight...After a cold morning in east-central Florida, temperatures have rebounded into the 50s (low 60s near Stuart) under a mostly clear sky. Mid level troughing will remain overhead as a surface high continues to expand east over the Gulf tonight. Calm winds, clear skies, temperatures in the 30s, and recovering relative humidity values over the interior will set the stage for frost development early Thursday morning. As a result, a Frost Advisory has been issued, beginning at 1 AM Thursday, for all areas west of Interstate 95. While wind chill values will dip into the low and mid 30s, lighter wind speeds should keep us just above the Cold Weather Advisory threshold.

New Year's Day-Friday...Below normal temperatures will stick around through the day Thursday as high pressure builds overhead. Mostly sunny conditions are forecast to bring morning lows from the 30s and low 40s to the mid 60s in the afternoon. Very dry air remains embedded in northwesterly flow on Thursday before moisture slowly returns on Friday. Forecast soundings and simulated satellite indicate a batch of high clouds moving over the northern half of the area Friday. Nevertheless, the warming trend is forecast to continue through late week with temperatures climbing to near normal, or just shy of normal, into the low 70s. Overnight lows remain chilly, settling in the upper 30s to mid 40s Thursday night and mid 40s to low 50s Friday night.

Saturday-Tuesday...500mb ridging builds over the central CONUS this weekend and early next week, with troughing and mid level northwest flow over the eastern U.S. Mostly clear conditions Saturday morning will give way to some afternoon clouds (especially north) as another cold front drifts south in our direction. Southwest winds become breezy, too, gusting at times around 20 mph. Height falls, 1.3-1.4" PW, and forcing along the front should provide the support for shower development Saturday night into Sunday morning. Activity may linger along the coast Sunday, perhaps even into Monday south of Cape Canaveral. Thunder is not mentioned in the forecast as models show little in the way of available instability. For now, the forecast does not explicitly mention coastal showers early next week, but it would not be surprising to see a low rain chance introduced in later updates.

Temperatures are not affected all that much in the wake of this next front. Sunday may be a degree or three cooler, especially in northern locations, but is overall slightly warmer than the NBM's 50th percentile. High pressure returns for the first full week of 2026, bringing mostly dry conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures to east-central Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Poor boating conditions briefly resume Thursday morning, north of Sebastian Inlet, due to 15-20 kt northwesterly winds. Seas up to 6 ft through this evening in the Gulf Stream will remain 3-5 ft on Thursday. Improved conditions are then set to return Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning as high pressure builds over the local waters. Seas decrease to 1-3 ft.

A cold front arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing the chance for showers and another period of poor to hazardous marine conditions. Offshore winds of 15-25 kt will have a minor effect on wave heights, generally staying 6 ft or less. Winds veer north-northwesterly Sunday as isolated showers remain possible.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions persist at all terminals through the forecast period. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots continue tonight into tomorrow along with clear skies. Rain is not forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Despite lighter winds, sensitive fire weather conditions will last through New Year's Day due to low relative humidity (30-35%). Friday into the weekend, moisture gradually returns to the area with elevated rain chances arriving Saturday night into Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 36 65 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 39 65 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 39 66 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 36 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 37 65 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 37 65 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 39 65 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 35 66 40 72 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-144-247-254-259-264-547.

AM...None.