textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 321 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Dry and warm this weekend with interior sites approaching record highs this afternoon

- Cold front Sunday night into Monday brings windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and a short-lived chance for rain

- Beach and boating conditions will deteriorate Sunday night into early next week as winds create rough surf and building seas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Today-Tonight... A deck of scattered to broken cumulus clouds has developed across the Florida peninsula this afternoon, gradually clearing along the coast as the sea breeze moves inland. Warm and dry conditions continue with temperatures already reaching the mid to upper 80s across the interior. Monitoring for highs near record values as temperatures continue to climb. Leesburg looks to be the closest record within reach this afternoon with a value of 90F last set in 1990. Recent CAM runs have suggested just enough moisture in the low levels to get a shallow shower or sprinkle along the sea breeze collision late this afternoon and evening, but confidence in this solution remains low. Skies become partly to mostly cloudy overnight with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday-Monday... Mid-level troughing swings across the Great Lakes region and through the eastern U.S. during the period. High pressure's influence flattens over Florida Sunday with troughing becoming more pronounced along the eastern U.S. coast Monday. Light westerly flow develops Sunday as the surface ridge axis over the Florida peninsula retreats into the western Atlantic. A west coast sea breeze becomes favored with delayed development of the east coast breeze. High temperatures continue well above normal on Sunday, largely ranging the upper 80s with a few locations near or at 90F across the interior. Conditions become noticeably cooler Monday as a surface front pushes south of the area, and highs remain limited to the upper 70s and low 80s. Lingering moisture behind the surface front and lagging energy aloft should be supportive of scattered showers (30-50%) across portions of east central Florida Monday, particularly south of Cape Canaveral and the Orlando metro.

Increasing northeast winds 15-25 mph spread east central Florida behind the front on Monday. Highest wind speeds and gusts should occur along the coast, prompting multiple coastal and marine hazards. Large breaking waves and rough surf will become present at area beaches, first along the Volusia coast early in the day and building southward towards the Treasure Coast beaches late Monday afternoon and into the evening. An increasingly dangerous rip current risk builds Monday, and entering the rough surf is not advised!

Tuesday-Friday... Troughing aloft moves into the western Atlantic Tuesday. Only a brief period of zonal flow becomes established early Wednesday before the next disturbance passes overhead into Thursday. At the surface, high pressure builds along the eastern U.S. seaboard, moving offshore into mid week. Onshore flow remains breezy on Tuesday, slackening into Wednesday as the area of high pressure weakens in the western Atlantic. A much drier airmass builds Tuesday, particularly between 850-500mb. Model confidence in precip remains too low to mention at this time. However, moistening low- level flow could allow for shallow onshore moving showers Wednesday. Temperatures remain a few degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday with highs mostly in the upper 70s and low 80s. Conditions become gradually warmer Thursday, and above normal temperatures look to return across portions of the interior by Friday.

Rough surf and large breaking waves should continue at east central Florida beaches on Tuesday, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected to persist through much of the extended forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 321 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Favorable boating conditions continue this weekend before deteriorating late Sunday and into Monday as the next cold front passes the local waters. Northeast winds spread the waters behind the front, increasing to 25-30 kts north of the Cape early Monday morning and 20-25 kts south of the Cape into Monday afternoon. Seas respond, gradually building building 7-11 ft through the day Monday. East-northeast winds 20-25 kts persist south of the Cape on Tuesday, slackening 15-20 kts further north. Diminishing seas remain poor to hazardous across southern legs of the waters Tuesday becoming more favorable 3-5 ft on Wednesday. Scattered showers are forecast over the waters Sunday night through Monday. Otherwise dry.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR and good flying conditions throughout. Very low fog potential tonight. E/SE winds up to 12 kt this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds turn W/NW on Sunday, remaining under 10 kt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 321 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Warm and dry conditions continue through Sunday afternoon. This pattern changes Sunday night into Monday morning as the next cold front passes central Florida. Moisture briefly recovers south of I-4 Monday before high pressure builds and dry conditions return Tuesday into mid next week. Scattered showers are forecast south of Orlando Monday, but rainfall accumulations are expected to remain limited. Breezy and gusty northeast winds develop behind the front, generally persisting through Tuesday before high pressure weakens over the western Atlantic.

CLIMATE

Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Record Highs for Saturday-Sunday (18th-19th):

April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 94 2015 92 1988

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 65 88 65 77 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 69 90 67 78 / 10 0 0 10 MLB 69 86 69 78 / 0 0 10 30 VRB 67 87 69 80 / 0 10 20 40 LEE 66 89 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 66 90 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 69 90 67 79 / 10 0 0 10 FPR 66 87 68 80 / 0 10 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.