textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

- Remaining mild to warm today. A cold front brings a 30-50% chance of showers followed by breezy west-northwest winds this afternoon. Worsening boating conditions by tonight.

- Windy tonight as decidedly colder air arrives. A Cold Weather Advisory has been posted for all except the immediate Space and Treasure Coast. In the advisory area, wind chills of 30 degrees or less will make it feel even colder.

- Multiple nights of unusually cold weather yet to come. A Freeze Warning is in effect for areas north of Orlando tonight, and a Freeze Watch has been issued for Greater Orlando, Osceola County, and points northward for Tuesday night. Consider covering tender plants or bringing them inside, if possible.

- Confidence is high that below-normal temperatures will last for the next week to ten days, if not longer. There is a low to moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures late this weekend or early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

The upper-air pattern across N America is highly amplified this morning. Phasing of the subtropical and polar jet stream has resulted in a longwave trough over the eastern Plains and Midwest. This spawned a dangerous winter storm stretching from Texas to New England. To its south, anomalous mid-level ridging extends from the W Caribbean into the tropical Western Atlantic. Florida resides between these two features.

Low pressure has migrated into the Northeast U.S., with a sharp trailing cold front extending to the Florida Panhandle. This boundary divides an Arctic air mass to its northwest from a spring-like warm sector over the Florida Peninsula. The grand ensemble is in excellent agreement with the evolution of this pattern over the next couple days. A shortwave at the base of the trough is forecast to drive this cold front eastward and through Florida today. 5,000 ft (H85) temperatures crash dramatically -- from the 95th to the 10th percentiles of climatology -- between now and Tuesday morning. Cold surface high pressure, currently over Kansas, drifts toward the Deep South over the next couple days. This will provide the north to northwest winds necessary to send temperatures and moisture values well below normal by Monday night.

The door remains wide open for additional surges of Arctic air into the eastern United States over the next week to ten days. Teleconnection graphs show a 'trifecta' of sorts for unusually cold weather. First, the Arctic Oscillation is reaching a nadir of -5 early this week and is forecast to remain negative for the balance of the next two weeks. NAO has also gone negative, and right on cue, the PNA is going positive. Hemispheric charts tell the tale as H5 heights are forecast to remain above normal over the Arctic. This displaces much colder air southward into the mid-latitudes.

While below normal temperatures are favored for the foreseeable future, timing out and assessing the risks for impactful cold and freezing temperatures across Central Florida will require a closer look at individual disturbances within this active weather pattern. There are a pair of features worth keeping an eye on from later this week through the weekend.

First, a piece of energy should pass from the Rockies into the Southeast around Thursday, reinforcing the Arctic air mass over the Eastern U.S. Trailing close behind appears to be another shortwave approaching Florida by around Saturday. Cluster analysis from the 25/12Z suite, along with early-arriving 26/00Z guidance, leaned toward some phasing of this feature with a lobe of the polar vortex to the north of the state. However, confidence remains very low, evidenced by a very large H5 height interquartile spread by next Sunday. If this disturbance interacts with the northern stream, the cold risks for Central Florida would become even more significant by the weekend.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

As I type, all of east central Florida still sits in the low 70s, which is very uncommon for late January. We will wake up to our last balmy morning for quite some time to come. A cold front enters from the northwest early this morning, exiting the Treasure Coast by late afternoon. As it passes, a ribbon of moisture will support scattered showers. Coverage today will range from 30-50%. Very light totals are anticipated, and the chance of lightning is 20% or less.

We expect areas ahead of the front to warm quickly today, with low and mid 80s south of Melbourne to Okeechobee. Farther north, low to mid 70s are forecast. West-northwest winds turn breezy, gusting up to 25 mph this afternoon. A disturbance passing well north of the area will then force a surface trough through here this evening. As it does, winds turn out of the northwest, tapping into the much colder air just off to our north. After sunset, gusts of 20-25 mph over land, and up to 30-35 mph on the barrier islands, will continue as temps start to plummet.

By daybreak, temperatures should fall into the low to mid 30s over most of the interior and all of Volusia County, with 40s in most places south of Melbourne. There is a greater than 50% chance of a freeze across parts of Lake and inland Volusia Counties where a Freeze Warning has been issued. Wind chills nosedive into the mid-upper 20s by daybreak from Daytona Beach to Okeechobee and points westward, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory for all but areas along the coast from Cape Canaveral southward. Please take precautions to protect you and your pets from the cold.

Tuesday - Friday...

For the remainder of the work week, cold mornings and crisp afternoons will continue. Very modest moderation, at best, is forecast due to a reinforcing surge of cool air clipping the Southeast U.S. around Thursday. This is despite ample sunshine. Early morning lows should range from 10-20 degrees below normal, with highs also 10-20 degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, then 5-10 degrees below normal on Thursday and Friday.

We have issued a Freeze Watch for Greater Orlando, Osceola Co and points north over the interior for Wednesday morning. While freeze probabilities are less than 30% within metro Orlando, they quickly jump to 50-80% over exurban and rural locales surrounding the city. Additional Cold Weather Advisories are likely to be needed each morning through Thursday as wind chills dip into the mid-upper 20s near and west of I-95.

Despite fairly dry air in place, RH recoveries at night look high enough for areas of frost to form beginning Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with the greatest coverage in rural areas west of I-95. Over these spots, folks with annual and tropical plants will need to protect them for multiple days.

Weekend...

To start off, there is no question that the forecast for the coming weekend will remain highly variable for at least two to three more days. The primary challenge is resolving whether two distinct pieces of energy, currently thousands of miles apart, will interact to form a large nor'easter-type storm along the Eastern Seaboard. While the trend has been moving in that direction over the last day or so, several ensemble members keep the features separated as they make their closest approach to Florida. This distinction is critical: when compared to a disorganized system, a strengthening low off the east coast could very effectively pull Arctic air much farther southward through the peninsula.

What this means is a period of heightened uncertainty regarding both moisture and temperatures. We will carry low rain chances of 20-30% on Saturday as moisture tries to increase ahead of the arriving energy. If the two features mentioned before do interact, a blast of windy and much colder air would likely be felt here in Central Florida beginning sometime late Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Statistical guidance clearly illustrates the low-confidence scenario we are dealing with, as interquartile spreads jump to 10 to 15 degrees for both high and low temperatures from Saturday through Monday.

Whether temperatures remain manageably cooler than normal or become significantly colder than normal is still in question. While this is more of a reasonable worst-case scenario signal, the overall pattern we are entering has historically supported major freezes and significant cold air outbreaks in Florida. Those making plans outdoors or whom have sensitive agricultural interests should keep a close eye on the forecast as this hopefully becomes clearer by mid-week.

MARINE

Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

A period of hazardous boating conditions is getting underway early this week. A cold front passes over the local Atlantic waters today, causing winds to turn offshore then freshen quickly out of the north-northwest tonight. Gale-force wind gusts are possible this evening and early overnight, causing very rough seas. High pressure drifts toward the Deep South by mid-week, allowing winds and seas to slowly subside through Wednesday. Another, less intense, surge of northwest winds may occur on Thursday as a weaker cold front drifts through the waters.

Small Craft Advisories offshore will expand to include all zones tonight through Thursday morning. Winds becoming WNW this afternoon, 10-20 KT, increasing out of the NW to 20-30 KT tonight. Seas 4-6 FT today will build to 8-10 FT, except up to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight. Winds diminish late on Tuesday to NW 10-15 KT, allowing seas to subside to 3-6 FT by Tuesday night, except up to 8 FT in the Gulf Stream. Seas generally 4-5 FT Wednesday, up to 7 FT by Thursday in the Gulf Stream as the next surge of northwest winds overtakes the local Atlantic.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1245 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

MVFR/IFR stratus has developed ahead of an approaching cold front, spreading NE from west central and south FL and will affect many terminals. Patchy LIFR conds are possible thru 14Z but are not explicitly forecast in the TAFs. Less confident for VSBY reductions due to mechanical mixing in the low levels. NBM only produces about 20% chance for MVFR CIGs. Cigs should gradually improve after 14Z, with VFR conditions returning by 17-18Z, but could see MVFR cigs hold on a little longer across KVRB-KSUA. A band of broken showers will also push through ahead of and along the front and have depicted this as VCSH in the TAFs.

Winds will be out of the S/SW around 8-10 knots thru sunrise and become W/NW and increase to 13-16 knots Monday as the front pushes through from NW-SE, with gusts up to 20-25 knots. Breezy to windy conditions are then forecast to continue Monday night, with winds out of the N/NW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Behind a strong cold front, much drier air settles over the Florida Peninsula beginning tomorrow. Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Tuesday, with fire-sensitive weather persisting through mid-week. Brisk northwest winds from 8-15 MPH are expected as RH values drop to 25-35% over the interior. RH values drop to 20-30% across all but the immediate coast once again on Wednesday and Thursday, but northwest winds decrease slightly to around 5-10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 33 52 33 / 40 0 0 0 MCO 74 37 55 35 / 40 0 0 0 MLB 78 42 58 38 / 40 0 0 0 VRB 80 46 61 40 / 40 0 0 0 LEE 70 32 53 35 / 30 0 0 0 SFB 73 35 55 33 / 40 0 0 0 ORL 73 36 55 35 / 40 0 0 0 FPR 82 45 61 39 / 40 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-547.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044-144.

Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.