textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions out of the northeast forecast for the next several days. A Wind Advisory continues along the coasts of Volusia, Brevard and Indian River counties through 8 PM EDT.

- Fresh to strong Northeast winds will produce dangerous boating conditions, high surf, life-threatening rip currents, and moderate beach erosion through at least the first half of the coming week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water.

- Isolated to scattered showers will cross the coast from the Atlantic and push well inland through Monday, then turning mostly dry through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Thru Tonight...Windy conditions this afternoon will decrease with sunset over inland areas but remain breezy/gusty along the coast out of the Northeast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for coastal Volusia/Brevard/Indian River counties thru 8 PM and is not likely to be extended. Despite drier air, persistent NE flow is picking up some Atlc moisture which will generate isolated to scattered showers over the Atlc. These fast moving showers will cross portions of the coast and push well inland so a 20-30% PoP is drawn areawide. Any showers will be brief but there may be a couple/few rounds in some locations. Min temps will remain very mild along the coast in the low to mid 70s, cooling into the mid to upper 60s over the interior.

Mon...NE winds persist; remaining windy along the coast with speeds 15-25 mph gusting 30-35 mph so do not anticipate another Wind Advisory. Breezy/gusty over the interior with gusts up to 30 mph. This persistent fresh northeast flow will continue to produce a number of beach and marine hazards...including rough surf, large breaking waves, and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is highly discouraged! Long period NE swells will also contribute to moderate beach erosion following multiple high tide cycles. A High Risk for rip currents exists for area beaches and will likely continue through much of this week. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through early this week as seas continue to build.

Onshore, fast moving showers will continue with 20-30% coverage. No lightning is forecast as instability remains very low. Max temps look very similar to today...upper 70s Lake/Volusia and low 80s metro Orlando/Brevard and mid 80s Okeechobee/Treasure coast.

Tue-Sat...A persistent weather pattern is forecast into midweek. The low pressure off the mid Atlc will finally lift NE away from the US east coast by late Thu. This will allow the pressure gradient to relax some resulting in decreased low level winds. But breezy conds of 15-20 mph can be expected along the coast each day. Models indicate mostly dry conditions through this time, but cannot rule out isolated light showers pushing onshore at times. The strong ridge remains cemented across the eastern United States, as weak low/disturbance may take form near the SE Bahamas along an old frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between these two features may once again tighten into the weekend, with onshore winds gradually strengthening once again, producing breezy to windy conditions and a threat for additional beach erosion.

Temperatures are forecast to remain below normal through the period, with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and overnight lows mostly in the 60s, except upper 50s NW of I-4.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Developing low pressure off the Carolina coast this afternoon will strengthen as it meanders off the mid Atlc coast. A tight pressure gradient between this low and high pressure across the eastern U.S. will maintain a strong NE breeze through early this week. A Gale Warning continues north of Sebastian Inlet but is struggling to verify over the Brevard waters. Have moved up expiration of the Gale Warning to 8pm for the Brevard Atlc waters and will replace it with a Small Craft Adv (SCA). The Gale warning for the Volusia waters will continue tonight but may also be expired earlier than forecast during Monday. Small Craft Advisories continue for the Treasure coast waters. Seas will continue to build tonight into Monday, especially over the Gulf Stream where N/NE winds directly oppose the current. Seas are forecast to peak near 14 feet there and then only slowly subside through midweek, reaching 7-9 feet Wednesday into Thursday. So have extended the SCA thru Wed morning for now.

Isolated to scattered showers over the Atlc will move toward the southwest and across the coast thru Monday. Mostly dry conditions then look to persist Tuesday into Thursday, but still can't rule out a few showers continuing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Breezy and gusty northeast winds persist across all east central Florida terminals through the period, with sustained winds of 12-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots possible, especially along the coast. Mostly dry conditions are forecast areawide outside of a low chance for VCSH at the coastal terminals through this afternoon. VFR conditions are anticipated through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 69 77 64 77 / 30 10 0 0 MCO 69 80 62 81 / 30 10 0 0 MLB 72 81 68 81 / 30 30 10 0 VRB 72 83 68 82 / 30 30 10 0 LEE 65 78 59 79 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 68 79 61 79 / 30 10 0 0 ORL 69 79 62 80 / 30 10 0 0 FPR 71 82 67 82 / 20 30 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-347-447- 647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-570.

Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-575.