textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible each day through the forecast period.

- Hazardous beach conditions continue along the east central Florida coast in the form of rough surf, a high risk of rip currents, and breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged!

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast through much of the period as onshore flow keeps seas above cautionary and advisory criteria.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Today-Tonight...A stalled boundary draped across the Florida Keys and the Bahamas will continue drifting southward, eventually dissipating entirely today. High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift southward, with the ridge axis remaining situated well north of Florida peninsula. This will maintain predominantly onshore flow locally today and tonight, with wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph forecast as the pressure gradient loosens across the Florida peninsula. Gusts to 25 mph, especially along the coast, will be possible. The persistent onshore flow coupled with elevated wave heights will lead to continued hazardous beach conditions. Rough surf, a high risk of rip currents, and breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet are anticipated at all east central Florida beaches. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Treasure Coast beaches today, where breaking waves are forecast to be highest. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged!

Lingering moisture from the stalled boundary combined with the moisture advection from the onshore flow will result in partly cloudy skies across east central Florida, which will help keep temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. The moisture and onshore flow will also favor isolated to scattered shower development, with activity moving inland through this afternoon and increasing in coverage (30-40%). Isolated storms cannot be ruled out, but chances remain low (20%). Any storms that do manage to develop may be capable of producing occasional cloud-to- ground lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and brief heavy downpours. Coverage is anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours, though ongoing activity across the local Atlantic waters will be possible.

Tuesday-Sunday...The high pressure situated across the western Atlantic will remain the predominant feature through the forecast period, with the ridge axis anticipated to remain north of east central Florida. Onshore flow will persist through this week, locally enhanced each afternoon by the east coast sea breeze each afternoon and causing wind speeds to reach up to 15 mph at times. This persistent onshore flow will help keep PWAT values across the peninsula in the 1.3-1.6" range, with isolated to scattered showers possible each afternoon. The sea breeze will assist in pushing activity inland, with rain chances generally ranging from 20-40% each day. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out each afternoon with this activity, but chances remain low between 20-30%. Any storms that do manage to develop may be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours. Shower and storm activity will wane into the late evening and overnight hours, though isolated development across the local Atlantic waters may persist each night. Afternoon temperatures will follow a gradual warming trend through this week, reaching above-normal values across the interior by Thursday. Overnight temperatures will remain mostly unchanged, staying in the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist across the local Atlantic waters. While the pressure gradient is forecast to loosen across the area today and will allow winds to subside to 15 to 20 knots out of the east, seas are still anticipated to remain between 6 to 9 feet. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across all legs of the local Atlantic waters through 2 PM. Seas will gradually begin to subside late this afternoon through Tuesday, with seas forecast to fall below advisory criteria (7 feet) Tuesday night. Onshore winds will keep seas generally between 4 to 6 feet through the middle of this week, with a return of hazardous boating conditions anticipated late this week into the weekend. Onshore winds persist, ranging from 15 to 25 knots through the extended forecast period. While mostly dry conditions will be present across the waters, isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local waters each day. Isolated storms also cannot be ruled out, but confidence in this remains low.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Moderate onshore (ERLY) flow 10-15 kts over the interior and 15-20 kts along the Space/Treasure coasts (higher gusts for all - strongest along the coast). Generally low VFR (OCNL MVFR) CIGs, but brief MVFR/IFR in SCT showery precip (ISOLD lightning), with modest moisture in place. Have VCSH wording in place and will utilize TEMPO groups as necessary. Winds diminish to around 5 kts interior and near 10-15 kts at the coast (higher gusts) later this evening and overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 78 64 80 64 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 81 65 82 65 / 30 0 40 0 MLB 79 67 80 67 / 30 10 40 10 VRB 79 66 80 66 / 30 10 40 10 LEE 82 64 85 64 / 30 0 30 0 SFB 81 64 82 64 / 30 10 30 10 ORL 81 65 82 65 / 30 0 40 0 FPR 79 65 80 65 / 40 10 40 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ154-159- 164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555-570.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572-575.