textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Breezy onshore winds today will continue poor to hazardous boating conditions across the coastal waters and lead to rough surf and a high risk for rip currents at area beaches.

- Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are forecast today into tonight, with shower and storm chances increasing Friday and into the weekend with a passing disturbance aloft.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Today-Tonight...Pressure gradient remains relatively tight across the area between high pressure to the north and a weak frontal boundary to the south. This will continue a breezy onshore flow today as northeast winds increase from 10-15 mph this morning up to 15-20 mph this afternoon, with gusts around 25-30 mph. Some drier air builds in, lowering rain chances today. However, the breezy winds and sufficient low level moisture will still lead to isolated to scattered showers that push onshore and inland through the day. PoPs for much of the area will reside around 20-40 percent, with greatest coverage of showers and potential for a few storms mainly southeast of the I-4 corridor. Any storms and heavier showers will have the potential to produce gusty winds up to 35-40 mph as well as locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches. As a mid/upper level low approaches from the east and onshore flow continues, isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and storms will continue into tonight, with greatest chance for rainfall along the coast.

Drier air may make it feel a little less humid, mainly near to NW of I-4 where dewpoints are forecast to fall into the upper 60s this afternoon. Highs will be near to just a tad below normal, in the mid to upper 80s, with lows tonight in the 70s.

At the beaches, a high risk of life threatening rip currents will persist today, along with rough surf. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is not advised!

Friday-Sunday...Surface high pressure to the north builds southward, with pressure gradient weakening. This will allow low level winds to continue and also decrease through late week and into the weekend. Strong ridge to the northwest of Florida lingers through the period, as a mid/upper level low moves in from the east across the state and slowly progresses westward into the weekend. Moisture will increase with PW values rising to 1.7" Friday and 1.9-2.0" into the weekend. Passing low aloft will aid in lift and also lead to cooler temps at 500mb (as low as -8 to -10C Friday into Saturday). This will lead to increasing shower and storm chances, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing each day (rain chances near to above normal). A few stronger storms will be possible each day due to lingering dry air aloft, and the cool temps in the mid levels. Main storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds to 40- 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3", which may result in minor flooding issues. Onshore flow will continue low end rain chances along the coast each night as isolated to scattered showers and storms across the waters may reach the coast. Temperatures remain seasonable, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 70s.

Monday-Wednesday...Low aloft shifts west, with a weak sfc trough near to north of the area. Winds remain relatively weak and mostly onshore through early to middle portion of next week. Sufficient moisture remains in place to continue scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening as sea breeze shifts inland. Isolated strong storms will continue to be possible each day, with temperatures remaining close to normal values for this time of year.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Today-Tonight...A fresh onshore breeze will continue poor to hazardous boating conditions across the coastal waters today through tonight. E/NE winds up to 15-20 knots are forecast to persist through this afternoon, decreasing to 10-15 knots into tonight. Small craft advisories for seas up to 7 feet will continue across the offshore waters through 8am this morning, and then are scaled back to just the offshore Volusia/Brevard waters through 11am as 7 foot seas continue to diminish. Elsewhere, small craft should exercise caution today for seas up to 6 feet. Exercise caution headlines will then likely continue this evening across the offshore waters where seas up to 6 feet linger.

Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and isolated storms will continue to develop across the waters, pushing westward and onshore. Gusty winds around 30-40 knots will be possible with any storms or heavier showers, which could pose a hazard to boaters.

Friday-Monday...More favorable boating conditions forecast to return across the waters Friday and continue through the weekend and into early next week. Onshore winds will generally prevail, with speeds less than 15 knots. Seas fall to 3-4 feet Friday and then 2-3 feet Saturday-Monday. The main hazard to boaters will be an increase in showers and storms (becoming scattered to numerous) as moisture increases and a disturbance aloft approaches and passes across the state and out into the Gulf.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

NE to E winds will increase later this morning (14Z-16Z) with 12-16KTS gusting around 25 knots. This could produce some crosswind issues at MCO. Some drier air has filtered in and this will reduce the shower coverage but will still see Atlc SHRA pushing onshore and well inland. Have VCSH to start at the northern terminals, including MCO based on radar trends. No TEMPO groups since rain chances are below 50% but have a PROB30 for MVFR conds in coastal showers at VRB-SUA late in the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 87 76 87 75 / 20 20 30 20 MCO 89 73 89 73 / 20 20 30 0 MLB 88 77 87 76 / 30 30 50 30 VRB 87 75 87 73 / 40 40 50 40 LEE 89 73 89 73 / 10 10 30 0 SFB 87 74 88 73 / 20 20 30 10 ORL 88 74 88 74 / 20 20 30 0 FPR 87 74 87 73 / 40 40 50 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ575.