textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Hot and muggy conditions will build with peak heat indices climbing to 102-107 this holiday weekend resulting in widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk.

- Increased moisture, strong daytime heating and boundary collisions will result in scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms into the Fourth of July weekend.

- At least a Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents at area beaches through the Fourth of July weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Today-Tonight... High pressure aloft remains anchored over the southeast U.S. today, gradually weakening into tonight. A boundary of moisture extending from a weak surface low over the western Atlantic reaches across southern portions of the area (PWAT ~2.0- 2.2") with only slightly drier air forecast to the north of Orlando (PWAT ~1.8-2.0"). Isolated onshore moving showers may brush the coast early in the day before afternoon and evening convection becomes driven by the sea breeze and mesoscale boundary interactions. The greatest diurnal PoPs will be supported in the area of highest moisture, with coverage generally peaking around 50- 70% south of Orlando and west of I-95. Further north, coverage remains more scattered ranging 30-50% west of I-95. In typical summertime fashion, the storm environment is characterized by weak shear and high surface instability. Organized stronger storms are generally not expected, but gusty winds of 45-50 mph will be possible in vicinity of isolated storm downbursts. Otherwise, weak steering flow may contribute to periods of locally heavy rainfall and minor/ nuisance flooding in slow moving storms.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures continue with highs in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values mostly range 100-105F, and a Moderate to localized Major HeatRisk is forecast across much of east central Florida. Low temperatures remain mild, in the mid to upper 70s across much of the area.

A Moderate Risk of rip currents persists at east central Florida beaches. Heed the advise of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs.

Weekend... High pressure continues to weaken across the southeast U.S. as a pair of mid level troughs dig through the northeast U.S. and the midwest states. Surface high pressure gradually builds over the western Atlantic with its axis stretching into south Florida by late this weekend. Deeper moisture which had been focused across the southern half of the peninsula earlier in the week becomes advected northward as light southwest flow develops. This will result in more areawide coverage of scattered to numerous (~50-70%) showers and storms each afternoon and evening. A slightly delayed sea breeze will migrate inland each day with a sea breeze collision focused across the central or eastern half of the peninsula, and peak coverage is generally expected between 4pm-8pm. Some activity may push back towards the coast, with lower rain chances lingering into the late evening. Primary storm hazards remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds in vicinity of downbursts, and periods of locally heavy rainfall. Seasonably hot conditions continue with afternoon highs (Low-Mid 90s) near to slightly above average. Peak heat index values between 102-107F are forecast to mostly hold near to below Heat Advisory criteria at this time. Residents and visitors are encourage to stay hydrated and practice heat safety this weekend. For heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast through the holiday weekend. Always swim near a life guard!

Monday-Thursday... Mid level troughing across the midwest U.S. slides into the eastern U.S. and offshore by Wednesday. Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic should keep the trough and any surface fronts north of central Florida, but occasional pulses of vorticity may still pass aloft. A surface ridge axis near or south of the area may broaden into mid next week, but a loose pressure gradient looks to keep light southerly flow (variable at times) in place through the period. Global model solutions show some disagreements in moisture through the extended period with the Euro keeping a deeper plume of moisture in place (2.0-2.2") and the GFS widely fluctuating between 1.7-2.2". For now, the current forecast suggests scattered to occasionally numerous chances for diurnal showers and storms through the period, but there remains mentionable uncertainty in exact PoP values each day. Hot and humid conditions persist, and highs in the low to mid 90s may show a subtle warming trend into mid week.

MARINE

Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The western Atlantic high extends over the local waters this weekend into early next week, maintaining favorable boating conditions. Light and variable winds today shift onshore as the sea breeze develops in the afternoon. Prevailing south to southwest winds then develop this weekend, increasing 10-15 kts each evening and overnight. Seas of 2-3 ft gradually subside to become widely 1-2 ft into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast across the waters early today. Coverage of offshore moving showers and storms increases in coverage this weekend, primarily in the late afternoon and evening hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions prevailing through the period. Isolated to scattered TS develops along the sea breeze from MLB southward after around 17Z, with possible brief impacts to VRB/FPR/SUA through 20Z. Then, convection transitions inland along the breeze, with a collision near LEE/ISM after 21Z. TEMPOs have been included for all but MLB/TIX/DAB and VCSH could linger along the collision (LEE/ISM) through around 3Z. Light steering flow will lead to slow and erratic movement of showers and storms, with propagation driven by outflow boundaries and the sea breeze. Light and variable winds become onshore at 10 kts or less behind the breeze, gusty winds possible in stronger storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 90 76 91 76 / 20 10 60 20 MCO 94 76 93 76 / 50 30 70 30 MLB 90 77 91 77 / 40 10 70 30 VRB 91 76 91 76 / 50 20 70 30 LEE 94 77 93 77 / 30 20 70 20 SFB 95 76 94 77 / 30 20 70 30 ORL 94 77 93 77 / 50 20 70 30 FPR 90 75 90 75 / 60 20 70 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.