textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening across areas from Orlando metro and Cape Canaveral northward.

- Chance for showers and storms will continue each afternoon and evening this weekend through Monday. A few stronger storms will continue to be possible each day.

- Highs remain above normal through the weekend and peak heat indices are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s to around 100F (locally) for much of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Today-Tonight...Latest guidance shows a weak front moving southward into north central Florida toward late this morning/early this afternoon. A few showers may move in ahead of the front this morning, mainly north of Orlando. Then as moisture continues to increase and daytime heating sets in, isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop into this afternoon along the front and with the inland moving sea breeze. Rain chances will largely remain north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast today, where greatest moisture (PW values of 1.6-1.8") will exist. Highest coverage, however, looks to remain focused near to north of Orlando this afternoon and evening (rain chances up to 40-60%) closer to the front.

Increasing 0-6km bulk shear values of 50-55 knots across northern portions of east central Florida will support the development of organized convection. A Marginal Risk (5-14% chance) for severe storms exists today from the Orlando Metro area to the north and east. Strong to isolated severe storms will mainly be possible from mid afternoon through this evening as this activity develops inland and pushes back toward the coast and offshore of Volusia and northern Brevard counties. Lingering dry air aloft and 500mb temps of -8 to -9C will favor frequent lightning strikes, strong to locally damaging wind gusts to 40-60 mph and coin sized hail as the main storm threats. However, while potential remains quite low (<2%), can't rule out a funnel cloud or brief tornado with storms interacting with the sea breeze. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches may also occur with any storms, and due to ongoing drought conditions there will also be the potential for fire-starts from lightning strikes, especially away from the main precip core.

Increase in cloud cover and rain chances will lower max temps today slightly, but they will still be near to above normal, ranging from the mid to upper 80s at the coast and low to mid 90s inland. Even with this slight drop in temps, the added humidity will still lead to peak heat index values in the mid to upper 90s, which will maintain an elevated heat risk, especially for individuals sensitive to heat. Warm and humid conditions will continue overnight, as temperatures are only forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Monday...Front lifts north of the area into this weekend, but moisture lingers keeping a chance for showers and storms each afternoon/evening. PoPs range from 20-40% each day, with greatest coverage focused toward the coast, near to north of Melbourne on Saturday, and then a more uniform distribution of 30-40% rain chances on Sunday across east central FL. While shear decreases, and temps aloft warm slightly, still could see a few stronger storms develop and push toward the coast and offshore each day. Heat impacts continue to build, as max temps reach the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values rise to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Warm and humid conditions will continue overnight, with lows in the 70s providing less relief from the heat. These hot and humid conditions will produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the area Saturday and Sunday.

A weak front is then forecast to approach and eventually move through the area Monday night. Shower and storm chances increase ahead of this front (up to 40-60%), with scattered showers and storms again pushing toward the coast and offshore during the afternoon/evening. Potential for strong to isolated severe storms will continue as W/SW wind fields increase with an approaching mid- level trough. Hot and humid conditions are forecast to persist into Monday even as cloud cover and rain chances increase.

Tuesday-Thursday...Weak front is forecast to shift south of the area, but will stall across South Florida before lifting back north through midweek. Behind the front, winds quickly veer onshore as high pressure builds offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday, then gradually become southerly by Thursday. Lingering moisture and instability north of the front on Tuesday will continue a chance for showers and potentially a few storms, mainly southeast of the I-4 corridor (rain chances up to 20-40%). There then remains some uncertainty on rain chances through midweek, as some of the guidance still keeps lingering showers and isolated storm potential through Wednesday and Thursday, but for now forecast trends drier through this time frame. Temperatures will drop to more normal values on Tuesday (in the 80s) behind the front on Tuesday, but then will continue to rise through midweek.

MARINE

Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Today-Tonight...A weak front will slide southward into the northern coastal waters today as it eventually stalls across the area. W/NW winds ahead of the boundary this morning are forecast to briefly become northerly, but will quickly veer onshore as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland this afternoon. Wind speeds will remain less than 15 knots, with seas 1-3 feet.

Main concern for boaters today will be the threat of isolated to scattered offshore moving storms (moving toward the east-northeast around 15-20 knots), north of Sebastian Inlet this afternoon and evening. Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible, with the main threats including strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 40- 60 mph, small hail and frequent lightning. Boaters should keep an eye toward the west-southwest and if darkening skies threaten, head immediately back to port.

Saturday-Tuesday...Front shifts back north of the waters this weekend, with winds generally prevailing out of the south-southeast around 10-15 knots. However, winds may increase slightly to 15-20 knots for portions of the offshore waters during the late afternoon/evening each day, producing temporary poor boating conditions. Seas, however, will continue to range from 2-4 feet. Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms will continue each afternoon/evening, with isolated stronger storms still possible, producing strong wind gusts and frequent lightning.

Another weak cold front will then approach the area Monday and is forecast to push through the waters Monday night. Winds veer to the S/SW and remain around 10-15 knots ahead of this boundary and then become N/NW behind the front Monday night. Coverage of offshore moving showers and storms are forecast to increase Monday afternoon and evening, and a threat for stronger storms will continue. Winds quickly veer to the NE as front pushes south into Tuesday, with wind speeds potentially increasing to 15-20 knots, building seas to 3-5 feet. Lingering moisture and instability behind the front may still lead to isolated to scattered showers and a few storms into Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

A mostly VFR start to the day with SHRA/TSRA chances MCO/TIX northward this afternoon. Most sites are VFR with the occasional, brief MVFR CIG (or brief IFR VIS at SUA). Conditions will largely remain VFR today as a front veers westerly winds more ENE after 18-21z. VCSH/TS and TEMPOs remain for MCO northward and still may need to add in TIX at a later time. The primary focus for stronger TSRA and CIG/VIS reductions will be after 17z at DAB and after 19-21z at SFB/MCO/TIX. Lower confidence exists in the west/southward extent of TSRA, so maintained VC wording for LEE/MLB. Activity gradually dissipates after 03z while moving offshore.

Winds become light and variable into early Sat. before picking up from the SW after 15z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

A weak front shifts into northern portions of east central Florida today before stalling and lifting northward into the weekend. This boundary will increase moisture and generate isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours from today through the weekend and into early next week. However, could see a few showers move in this morning, mainly north of Orlando. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe each day as this activity pushes back toward the coast and offshore. Greatest rain chances will be near to north of Orlando today (up to 40-60%) and north of Melbourne Saturday (up to 30-40%). West- northwest winds 5-7 mph this morning will become east-northeast this afternoon behind the inland moving sea breeze, increasing up to 10- 15 mph. Winds then become south-southwest Saturday around 10 mph, with east coast sea breeze switching winds to the southeast at the coast and increasing up to 10-15 mph.

While the increase in moisture will largely keep Min RH values above critical values, may see RH values drop as low as the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior, south of Orlando this afternoon. Min RH values will then range between 35-40% for much of the interior on Saturday. Temperatures remain above normal for much of the area today into this weekend, with added humidity leading to peak heat index values around 95-100 degrees each afternoon. Dispersion values will be fair to generally good today and then become very good to excellent on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 86 74 92 73 / 50 40 40 10 MCO 93 74 95 74 / 40 40 20 0 MLB 88 77 92 77 / 20 20 20 0 VRB 89 75 94 77 / 10 10 20 10 LEE 91 73 92 73 / 50 30 10 0 SFB 92 73 95 73 / 50 40 30 0 ORL 92 74 94 74 / 50 40 20 0 FPR 89 75 94 77 / 0 10 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.