textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

- A cold front will move across east central Florida today, bringing welcome rainfall to the area. Rainfall accumulations are anticipated to remain below a quarter of an inch, bringing minimal relief to drought conditions.

- Cold air settles behind the front, with lows in the 30s and wind chill values in the mid 20s to low 30s. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect across most of east central Florida from 1 AM to 9 AM on Friday.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters as winds and seas increase behind the cold front, with conditions not anticipated to improve until early next week.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast to persist over the next few days behind the cold front due to the dry air and breezy winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Today-Tonight...A cold front will continue moving towards the Florida peninsula through today, aided in its progression by the eastward sweep of a mid-level trough. CAM guidance maintains a band of stratiform rain out ahead of the front as it moves across the peninsula, bringing some welcome rain to the east central Florida area though totals are anticipated to remain around a quarter of an inch or less areawide. Maintained a 70% chance of showers areawide through today, with a gradual tapering off of rain chances through this afternoon. Behind the front, northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. These winds will help advect a colder, drier airmass southward across east central Florida, with PWATs forecast to tank below 0.3" areawide. High pressure then slowly builds behind the front into tonight, with clear skies anticipated across east central Florida. Winds remain around 5 to 10 mph overnight and patchy frost development cannot be ruled out across much of east central Florida, though confidence remains low at this time given the forecasted winds. Regardless, the protection of sensitive plants will be a good idea through the overnight hours.

High cloud coverage associated with the cold front will assist in keeping high temperatures across east central Florida below normal in the low to mid 60s, with temperatures peaking just before the passage of the cold front. Temperatures will then cool through the late afternoon and evening hours, falling into the 30s areawide tonight. With winds also remaining around 10 mph into the overnight hours, wind chills will also be a concern areawide, with HREF guidance indicating there is a 40-70% chance of wind chill values falling below 30 degrees across a majority of east central Florida. Deterministic guidance shows wind chill values falling into the mid 20s to low 30s across east central Florida, and thus, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all areas except coastal Martin County late tonight into early Friday morning (1 AM through 9 AM). Residents and visitors should plan on dressing warm, following proper space heater safety, and keeping pets indoors.

Friday-Sunday...A weak lobe of energy associated with another strengthening mid-level trough across the northeastern US will move towards the Florida peninsula Friday into Friday night, which will support the passage of a reinforcing front across east central Florida. Across the northeastern US, the area of low pressure associated with the mid-level trough is anticipated to shift eastward from the Great Lakes region towards New England on Friday and will then move offshore into Saturday. The cold front associated with this system will slowly drift southwards across the eastern US, passing many locations with little fanfare as it weakens. By Saturday night into Sunday, it is forecast to approach east central Florida, with the orientation of the front causing it to act more like a backdoor front as it moves from the northeast towards the southwest. By Sunday, ridging begins to build as high pressure strengthens across east central Florida.

Despite the passage of a reinforcing front on Friday and the weak backdoor front Saturday night into Sunday morning, conditions across east central Florida are forecast to remain dry through the weekend. Rain chances remain near zero this weekend, with PWATs remaining below 0.3" areawide. Westerly winds of 10 to 15 mph on Friday become northerly on Saturday, veering to out of the east and becoming lighter at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday. Cooler air remains in place through this weekend, with highs in the low to mid 60s on Friday increasing to the mid 60s to low 70s Saturday and Sunday. Lows in the 40s on Friday night cool into the upper 30s 40 mid 40s Saturday night before returning to the 40s on Sunday night.

Monday-Wednesday...In the mid-levels, a broad ridge is forecast to move towards the area, stretching from the Gulf towards the Florida peninsula and gradually shifting eastward through the middle of next week. At the surface, this will translate to an area of high pressure remaining in place across Florida, with dry conditions anticipated to persist through the start of next week. Temperatures will trend warmer through the extended period thanks to the high remaining anchored across the area, with a return to near-normal temperatures by Monday and near to slightly above- normal temperatures towards the middle of the week. Aside from some sensitive fire weather conditions potentially persisting, there are minimal weather concerns through the extended forecast period at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Poor boating conditions today will deteriorate as a cold front moves across the local Atlantic waters, with increasing rain chances out ahead of the front and increasing northwest winds forecast behind the front. Winds reach 20 to 25 knots through the overnight hours, with seas rapidly building in response to 6 to 9 feet, especially across the Gulf Stream waters. A Small Craft Advisory currently goes into effect starting at 10 AM today for all legs of the local waters, continuing across the offshore waters through at least Friday. Extensions will likely be needed, as it will take some time for the poor to hazardous boating conditions to diminish due to the passage of a reinforcing front on Friday and a backdoor front Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds gradually veer from the northwest to out of the north on Saturday then out of the east on Sunday, subsiding to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are not forecast to subside below 6 feet until Monday at this time. By Monday, high pressure builds across east central Florida and the local waters, with offshore winds persisting at 5 to 10 knots. Aside from today, rain is not forecast across the local waters.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 630 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conds will shift to MVFR/IFR over the next several hours as CIGs lower, accompanied by -SHRA activity. These -SHRA will push south and east thru 18z, gradually ending this afternoon along the Treasure Coast. TEMPOs are included for window of IFR CIG (probabilities remain 50% or greater for a brief decrease to LIFR). Conditions begin to improve NW to SE across the area after 18z as drier and colder air arrives.

Expect gusty NW winds, sustained 10-17 kt with gusts to 25 kt at times this afternoon. Winds decrease after 00z, except for MLB to SUA, where gusty winds linger thru at least 06z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A cold front will move across east central Florida today, with showers forecast out ahead of the front as it moves southward. Rain chances will diminish into the afternoon hours areawide. Behind the front, breezy northwest winds are forecast to develop, with winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 30 mph possible. In addition to the winds, dry air will also move towards east central Florida from the north, resulting in decreasing RH values. This will be particularly apparent starting on Friday, with minimum RH values falling below 35% nearly areawide. These low RH values are anticipated to persist into Friday and at least through the weekend. Additionally, the breezy winds are also forecast to persist on Friday and Saturday, with winds becoming lighter by Sunday. In summary, sensitive to near- critical fire weather conditions are forecast across much of east central Florida through at least this weekend. There is some potential for sensitive conditions to persist into early next week, though there is greater uncertainty with that at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 34 61 44 / 70 0 0 0 MCO 61 38 62 48 / 70 0 0 0 MLB 63 36 63 45 / 60 0 0 0 VRB 64 35 63 43 / 60 0 0 0 LEE 60 34 61 44 / 60 0 0 0 SFB 61 35 62 45 / 70 0 0 0 ORL 61 37 62 46 / 70 0 0 0 FPR 65 34 63 43 / 60 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.