textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Around 2 PM today, a 6.1 magnitude earthquake occurred west of Cuba and was felt locally in east-central Florida. There was NO tsunami threat to the coast. Visit usgs.gov for more info.

- Low rain chances continue on Tuesday before moisture builds mid to late week, resulting in higher rain and storm chances, especially into the upcoming weekend.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue, with the increasing moisture leading to greater chances for peak heat indices exceeding 100F late this week.

- At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents continues. Always swim near a lifeguard!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Now-Tonight...In a bit of news on this quiet weather day, a 6.1 magnitude earthquake occurred around 2 PM, off of the western coast of Cuba. Reports were received of the earthquake being felt locally across east central Florida, and there was no tsunami threat with this activity. For more information, please visit usgs.gov.

Plenty of sunshine this afternoon is supporting temperatures in the mid/upper 80s to around 90 degrees. With a few more hours left of peak heating, temps are on track to reach the low 90s across much of the interior. Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus clouds across St. Lucie and Martin counties, thinly highlighting the westward- advancing east coast sea breeze. With appreciable dry air in place between 500-850mb, a dry forecast is maintained through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Tonight, temperatures will settle into the low to mid 70s (upper 70s Treasure Coast) as muggy conditions build areawide. Shallow, westward-moving showers look to develop after midnight over the Atlantic. Some of this activity could approach the coast prior to daybreak Tuesday, especially from the Cape northward.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic/Northeast U.S. slides east over the Atlantic, with its axis roughly centered over the FL Peninsula. As the upper pattern over the north-central CONUS becomes a bit more active, H5 ridging over the eastern Gulf will shift west toward the TX Gulf Coast. Locally, easterly winds continue each day (10-15 mph) with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon. Tuesday morning, a low chance (20%) of coastal showers was included as shallow marine-layer showers push toward the coast. This activity may translate inland late morning into the early afternoon hours, especially as the sea breeze gets going. Still, this update maintains only a 15-24% chance of showers. An isolated lightning storm cannot be ruled out, especially across the interior, where surface heating builds instability a bit more. Similarly, coastal showers are possible Wednesday morning, but with more moisture available Wednesday afternoon (PW values 2"+), rain chances climb to 30-55% across the interior. A few more lightning storms are possible then, too, with MUCAPE building to ~1000+ J/kg. Daytime temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s appear most likely with heat indices starting to approach the 100-degree mark by Wednesday.

Thursday-Sunday (modified)...Broad mid-level ridging across Florida, the Gulf, and Mexico is forecast to remain in place through the end of this week and into the weekend. At the surface, the broad high pressure across the Atlantic will settle a bit farther south and east. The ridge axis will extend towards the Florida peninsula, resulting in south to southeast flow. Late week, the pressure gradient is forecast to weaken, with winds becoming lighter and more variable into this weekend. The persistent southerly flow will allow for moisture advection to occur, with PWATs recovering into the 1.8- 2.0+" range. Greater moisture and convergence along the east coast sea breeze will lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon. Following the typical summertime diurnal pattern, activity will peak in the afternoon and early evening hours, gradually diminishing overnight. A low chance of showers (and a storm or two) will continue overnight across the local Atlantic waters.

Models are in somewhat better agreement this afternoon, relative to the amount of moisture present across the peninsula. While there should still be some adjustments to location/magnitude of the highest rain chances, some focus may shift toward the central and eastern portion of the peninsula this weekend/early next week as light surface flow turns S/SW. Temperatures across east central Florida will remain near to slightly above normal through the extended period and with the humid conditions, peak heat indices exceeding 100F are becoming likely. Residents and visitors should plan ahead for a stretch of hotter conditions, especially if spending extended periods of time outdoors: remain adequately hydrated, avoid the hottest points of the day, and take frequent breaks in the shade or an air-conditioned building. Muggy, warm nighttime temperatures will provide little relief from the daytime heat.

MARINE

Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue this week. Easterly winds 10-14 kt gradually veer more southeasterly Wednesday/Thursday, before weakening further and becoming more SSE into the weekend. Moisture increases each day with an uptick in rain and lightning storm chances. Isolated/scattered showers and storms will develop overnight into the early morning hours, until late week or into the weekend, when some afternoon/evening activity could push back toward the coast and nearshore waters. Locally higher winds/waves are possible in the vicinity of any storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Dry conditions persist today, remaining mostly VFR. Low chances for rain return to the forecast Tuesday with VCSH mentioned along the coast prior to sunrise. Potential for VCSH may then exists across the interior terminals into Tuesday afternoon. Light easterly flow increases to 10-12 kts behind the sea breeze this afternoon, diminishing late this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 86 75 87 / 10 20 10 20 MCO 73 90 74 91 / 0 20 10 40 MLB 78 87 77 87 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 76 88 77 88 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 74 90 75 92 / 0 20 10 40 SFB 73 90 73 91 / 10 20 10 30 ORL 74 90 75 91 / 0 20 10 40 FPR 75 87 76 87 / 10 20 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.