textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of east central Florida today from 11 AM to 7 PM for peak heat indices up to 110F.

- Hot conditions will persist into next week, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices 105 to 109 forecast. Additional Heat Advisories cannot be ruled out.

- Rain and storm chances increase through this weekend and into early next week as moisture increases across east central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Today...High pressure at the surface and aloft remains in place, with continued moisture advection northward the result of persistent southerly flow. Rain and storm chances increase across east central Florida, reaching 30-60% areawide. A quiet morning is forecast (after outflow-driven convection lifted north from south FL overnight). A sea breeze collision across the interior late in the day will focus a majority of convection. Sufficient surface- based instability and modest low-level lapse rates will support the development of a few strong storms late in the afternoon and evening, with lingering dry air aloft supporting gusty winds at times. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and brief heavy downpours will be possible. Activity should linger well past sunset, diminishing overnight.

Combination of above normal temperatures in the mid 90s and an increase in dewpoints/humidity will produce peak heat indices up to 110. So a Heat Advisory is in effect for all of east central Florida from late morning through the early evening. Practicing heat safety is key to prevent heat-related illness. Adequate hydration, frequent breaks in the shade or air-conditioned buildings, and wearing lightweight, lightly colored clothing is strongly encouraged for those spending extended periods of time outdoors. Little overnight relief is anticipated, with conditions remaining muggy in the 70s.

Sun-Fri...Broad mid-level ridging and the surface Atlantic high will remain in place across the Florida peninsula through Sunday. By Monday and into early next week, a mid-level trough slowly moves across the southeastern US, with its associated surface cold front drifting southward. The surface Atlantic high will weaken and shift slightly south as the boundary approaches, with the mid- level trough and surface boundary forecast to stall just north of east central Florida. While persistent southwest to west flow will drive increasing moisture across east central Florida through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, the approaching boundary will also further boost moisture across the area. This in turn will lead to continued near-normal rain and storm chances of 30-60% across east central Florida, with the highest chances primarily focused across northern portions of the forecast area. Activity looks to follow the typical summertime diurnal pattern, with sea breeze driven convection anticipated each afternoon into the evening hours. Predominant west-southwest flow will keep the sea breeze pinned closer to the east coast, hence the greatest rain/storm chances through the extended period favoring eastern portions of the Florida peninsula with lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Activity will diminish into the late evening hours, pushing offshore across the local Atlantic waters overnight.

Temperatures on Sunday will remain hot in the mid 90s areawide, with peak heat indices 105-109. Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecast to continue on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate ever so slightly into next week, but are still forecast to remain above normal values. A close eye will be kept on peak heat indices through the extended, but overall trends suggest values generally remaining below Heat Advisory criteria into early next week. Muggy conditions will persist every night across east central Florida, with lows in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters this weekend and into mid next week. Broad high pressure across the Atlantic will remain in place through at least Monday, shifting southward into mid week as a frontal boundary approaches and stalls just north of the local waters. Increased moisture will bring a return of scattered showers and storms through this weekend and early next week. Southwest to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots persist through the forecast period along with seas of 1-2 feet except up to 3 feet offshore Volusia.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Outflow from SEFL has produce a line of SHRA with embedded TSRA that has reached KSUA and continues to push north, prompting VCTS and TEMPOs for TS impacts at Treasure Coast terminals through 09Z. Hi-res guidance and latest trends call for gradual dissipation over the next few hours, but SHRA could reach to KMLB-KTIX before clearing. Quiet conditions then expected until afternoon-evening TS develop. Very low confidence in convective evolution. TS could develop on the east coast sea breeze as early 17Z, with southerly flow slowing inland progression of the boundary, potentially keeping TS INVOF of the coastal terminals for much of the afternoon. Better chance for the sea breeze to make and inland push north of the Cape. Inland TS develop not expected until after 20Z, with a sea breeze collision INVOF of KMCO/Orlando area terminals late in the evening. CAMS are 50/50 whether SCT-NUM or just ISO TS will develop on the collision south of the Orlando area and drift back towards the coastal terminals. TS could continue well past 00Z before dissipating.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 95 76 94 76 / 40 20 50 10 MCO 97 76 96 77 / 50 30 40 10 MLB 92 77 93 77 / 40 10 40 10 VRB 93 75 93 76 / 40 10 30 10 LEE 96 77 95 78 / 50 30 40 10 SFB 97 77 96 77 / 50 40 50 10 ORL 96 77 95 78 / 50 40 40 10 FPR 92 75 93 75 / 50 20 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.