textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- The typical afternoon convective pattern continues through Thursday before a disturbance moves across the peninsula Friday into Saturday leading to higher rain chances, increasing seas, and a greater risk of rip currents.

- Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves towards east central Florida.

- Hot and humid conditions will persist across east central Florida, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Tonight-Thursday...Broad high pressure remains extended towards the Florida peninsula this afternoon. Persistent cloud coverage across the area through this morning and early afternoon has helped limit daytime heating locally, which has in turn led to a decrease in rain chances across the area. Brought PoPs down to 30-50% through the remainder of today, with both the HRRR and RRFS trending towards less coverage across east central Florida. Surface flow remains out of the southeast to east, resulting in the highest chances being focused across the interior and portions of the Treasure Coast where onshore-moving activity remains possible. Storm development is also forecast, with RAP guidance forecasting MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg, DCAPE ranging between 500-700 J/kg, and 500 mb temperatures staying around -8C. Based on these parameters, storm hazards through this afternoon will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding in some locations and small hail will also be possible, but confidence remains low at this time. Activity is anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours, with continued isolated to scattered shower and storm development possible across the Gulf Stream waters.

Thursday, the surface high is forecast to lift northward, with the ridge axis well north of Florida. Winds areawide become more easterly, which will support some light, isolated early morning onshore-moving showers along the coast. Coverage of showers will increase through the late morning and afternoon hours as a diffuse east coast sea breeze moves inland and supports shower and storm development. PWATs of 1.9-2.2" overspread the area, with PoPs a touch higher on Thursday at 40-70% compared to today. Guidance indicates that MLCAPE will exceed 1500 J/kg and DCAPE will range between 500-800 J/kg, with 500 mb temperatures remaining on the cooler side between -9C to -8C. Based on these parameters, the typical summertime storm hazards remain on the table, including frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, heavy downpours, and small hail. Minor, localized flooding will also continue to be possible, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of showers and storms. Activity will move westward as supported by persistent east to southeast flow aloft, with coverage anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours. Continued isolated to scattered development across the Atlantic waters through the overnight hours will be possible, with a low chance of some activity moving onshore along the coast.

Temperatures remain on track to reach the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon, with a similar outlook for Thursday afternoon. Moisture present across the area will keep conditions muggy, with peak heat indices of 100-105F possible. Overnight, temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s.

Friday-Saturday...An inverted trough at the surface is anticipated to lift northward from the Bahamas across the Florida peninsula late this week into the early weekend. This will bring a surge of moisture towards the east central Florida area, with PWATs forecast to exceed 2.1-2.2" areawide. The result will be above- normal rain chances, with PoPs of 70-80% on Friday and 50-70% on Saturday. Early morning showers across the local waters and along the coast will spread inland through the late morning and afternoon hours, aided by persistent southeast to east flow at the surface and aloft. Guidance indicates that flow aloft will be sufficient in keeping activity moving, but multiple rounds of showers will increase the potential for localized minor flooding in some spots. In addition to the rain, scattered storms will also be possible Friday and Saturday. MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg, dewpoints exceeding 70F, and 500 mb temperatures of -8C to -7C will support storm development and frequent lightning strikes with activity. Additionally, modest DCAPE ranging from 500-900 J/kg will support some gusty showers and storms, with gusts up to 50 mph possible at times. Showers and storms are anticipated to diminish into the overnight hours on Friday and again on Saturday, with the trough lifting northward and away from the area Saturday evening.

With the greater moisture present across the peninsula, cloud coverage is anticipated to be higher that normal. This will limit daytime heating across the area, resulting in afternoon temperatures remaining near-normal values in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Peak heat indices are forecast to still exceed 100F, ranging from 100-105F. Muggy conditions will continue through the overnight hours, with lows generally in the mid 70s.

It is important to also note that the passing trough will lead to an increase of seas across the local Atlantic waters, which will in turn result in choppier surf. Current indications are that this will lead to an increasing risk of life-threatening rip currents at the local beaches, so plan accordingly.

Sunday-Tuesday...Mid-level ridging builds across the Florida peninsula and adjacent Atlantic waters late this weekend into next week, with the surface Atlantic high gradually shifting southward once again. The ridge axis will extend across the Florida peninsula, resulting in lighter winds locally which will allow for the return of a more diurnal pattern each day through the extended period. Rain and storm chances are forecast to return closer to normal values on Sunday and Monday (30-60%), with chances falling Tuesday onward as drier air aloft moves across the peninsula and helps limit some convective potential. The return of the high pressure overhead will allow for some warming across east central Florida through the extended period, with afternoon highs near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat indices are overall anticipated to remain between 102-107F, though there is a low chance of exceeding 108F in some spots, but confidence remains low at this time. Will closely monitor. Muggy conditions will continue into the overnight hours each day, with lows remaining near normal.

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Broad high pressure through Thursday will keep boating conditions generally favorable, with onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet forecast locally. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible through the daytime and nighttime hours. By Friday, the high shifts north as an inverted trough lifts across the local Atlantic waters from the Bahamas. The quick pressure change will lead to increasing seas locally, with seas building to 3 to 5 feet. The highest seas will be focused across the Gulf Stream, with onshore winds ranging from 10 to 20 knots areawide. A surge of moisture is also anticipated in conjunction with the lifting inverted trough, resulting in above- normal rain and storm chances on Friday (60-80%) and closer to normal chances on Saturday (30-50%). As the inverted trough exits the area late Saturday, high pressure is anticipated to reestablish across the local Atlantic waters from Sunday onward. Winds shift to out of the southeast generally between 5 to 10 knots, with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late this weekend into next week. Isolated showers and storms will be possible through the extended, though recent trends continue to favor drier conditions across the local Atlantic waters.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Continued mainly VFR outside of storms. Flow turns light onshore areawide, with initial convective activity across the Treasure Coast spreading inland this afternoon and early evening affecting mostly interior TAF sites as the ECSB ventures well into the interior. TEMPO IFR/MVFR with convection. Light debris rainfall may persist into late evening. Very moist airmass in place and with the deep, but light onshore flow we may see occasional onshore-moving convection overnight into Thu morning. For Thu, activity could begin early along the coast pushing into the interior ahead of noon continuing thru the afternoon/early evening as onshore flow persists (a bit stronger than previous day).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 89 77 88 / 20 40 40 70 MCO 75 89 76 89 / 20 60 30 80 MLB 77 88 78 88 / 20 40 50 70 VRB 76 89 77 89 / 20 50 50 70 LEE 76 89 76 90 / 20 60 20 80 SFB 76 91 77 90 / 20 50 40 70 ORL 76 90 77 90 / 20 60 30 80 FPR 76 88 77 88 / 20 50 50 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.