textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone!

- A break from the prolonged stretch of wet weather will continue into Tuesday. It will be warm but less humid

- Shower chances slowly increase late this week and into the weekend as higher moisture returns to the area, especially with the next cold front forecast Friday into Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather across east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate clear skies over the region. Analysis charts show the cold front that moved through yesterday and last night to the southeast of east central Florida. Building high pressure (~1022mb) is situated over the Deep South. Temperatures have cooled behind the cold front and are currently in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the low 60s to low 70s. Winds have been somewhat breezy at times and are currently from the north at 6-12mph with gusts to 15-22mph.

Dry weather is expected to persist for the remainder of today and tonight as high pressure builds over the Deep South. Expect low temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s tonight (warmest along the coast) with clear skies.

Tuesday-Wednesday... The dry weather will continue on Tuesday before moisture begins to increase over east central Florida as northerly flow veers onshore. A longwave ridge is expected to build over the eastern CONUS through the forecast period. At the surface, high pressure (~1020mb) is expected to build over the southeastern US through midweek. Guidance shows PWAT values increasing to 1.0- 1.3" by Wednesday. Isolated onshore moving showers are forecast on Wednesday (mainly to the east and south of the Orlando metro. The potential exists for isolated gusty showers with moderate rainfall. Seasonable afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s with seasonable to above normal (~1F-3F+ degrees) low temperatures.

Thursday-Sunday... Deterministic models have come into slightly better agreement on the mid to long term forecast, however, there are still deviations in the different LREF-clusters' potential model solutions Friday and into the weekend. A longwave ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern US on Thursday with the apex of the ridge forecast to reach Canada. At the surface, the high is forecast to shift east over the southeastern US and the southwest Atlantic Friday into Saturday. There still remains uncertainty in the strength of the mid/upper level trough/low that is forecast to deepen over the eastern CONUS Friday into Saturday with the LREF-clusters showing clusters that have the trough deepen all the way to the Deep south and the other clusters deepening the trough to the Tennessee Valley, as well as the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from low pressure over the northeastern US and move east-southeast across east central Florida Friday into Saturday. Rain chances increase most days through the forecast period with isolated to numerous showers (mainly south of Cape Canaveral on Thursday) and isolated to widely scattered lighting storms forecast each day. Winds are forecast to become breezy to windy from the northeast Saturday and Sunday. The probability of wind gusts to 35mph or greater is at 30-70%+ on Saturday (highest probabilities north of the Treasure Coast) and 40-80%+ on Sunday. Seasonable to above normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday are forecast to cool into the weekend behind the cold front.

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected as a mid/upper level trough over the western Atlantic shifts east. Dry weather is expected. North winds at 5-15kts are expected with seas to 2-3ft up to 4ft over the offshore (20-60nm) waters.

Tuesday-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers and lightning storms. Rain chances increase mid to late week with isolated onshore moving showers on Wednesday and isolated to numerous showers, as well as isolated to scattered lightning storms Thursday/Friday. The potential exists for isolated lightning storms capable of gusty winds. Northeast winds at 6-12kts are forecast to veer east on Wednesday with persistent onshore flow at 10-15kts through the week. Seas to 2-3ft through the week are forecast with up to 4ft over the Gulf Stream on Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Sea breeze penetrating inland early this evening with winds transitioning onshore for a short spell; expect them to gradually become NW/N/NNE or just plain light/variable later this evening and overnight. Generally VFR conditions through much of the TAF period, though should see SCT marine stratocu with bases 025-035AGL begin to push back onshore the coast later tonight aft 06Z. Could be some periods, esp along the coast, with some BKN CIGs on Tue so future shifts will have to monitor for this. NE/ENE winds developing on Tue with speeds 7-12 kts and a few higher gusts. Conds remain dry.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 67 84 69 85 / 0 0 10 20 MCO 66 87 69 87 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 69 85 73 86 / 0 0 20 20 VRB 68 86 71 87 / 0 10 20 20 LEE 65 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 67 87 69 87 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 67 87 70 87 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 67 86 70 87 / 0 10 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.