textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- High risk of rip currents continues at area beaches; entering the water is strongly discouraged.

- Poor boating conditions persist across the local Atlantic waters through most of this week, with a return to hazardous conditions across across a portion of the waters by Thursday.

- Isolated to scattered showers each day with isolated storms possible, particularly Thursday and Sunday. A higher chance for rain arrives with a cold front early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Now-Tonight...Fair weather cumulus are developing this afternoon, moving west across the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures have reached the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the area with breezy to occasionally gusty winds (20 to 25 mph), particularly along the Treasure Coast. The latest hi-res guidance suggests most of us should stay dry for the remainder of today, so have opted to keep rain chances out of the official forecast. That said, a brief sprinkle or light shower cannot be totally ruled out across the far interior as the east coast breeze moves inland late this afternoon/early this evening. Temps will fall this evening into the 70s, settling into the 60s overnight. There is very low confidence in patchy fog development closer to Lake George early Wednesday morning, mainly just before sunrise.

Wednesday-Tuesday...A continuation of the current pattern will last through at least Saturday. High pressure over the open Atlantic keeps our area on the western periphery of the high, reinforcing onshore, east-southeast flow into the upcoming weekend. PW values generally hover between 1.2" and 1.4" during this time, though moisture does increase notably on Thursday and again ahead of an approaching cold front on Monday. Similar to today, isolated showers are possible Wednesday (15-20% chance) with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Forecast soundings reveal a bit of 850mb drying in the afternoon, likely limiting shower coverage overall. In contrast, a push of greater moisture arrives from the Atlantic on Thursday. This, combined with increased surface heating and instability, boosts rain and isolated lightning storm chances to 45-55% (or higher). Clouds are also going to be on the increase Thursday, and those could play a role in how much destabilization occurs. While QPF remains on the light side, locally higher rain amounts of 0.25- 0.50" cannot be ruled out where a storm occurs Thursday afternoon/evening. Outside of any rain or storms, breezy conditions are forecast with gusts peaking around 20-30 mph (highest along the coast).

H5 ridging briefly expands over the Florida Peninsula Friday. Models suggest another wave of briefly drier air reaching ECFL on Friday, keeping rain chances lower (15-25%). Breezy to gusty conditions continue Friday and Saturday (20-30 mph gusts at times), followed by a somewhat weaker wind field Sunday as the pressure gradient slackens. Better moisture return on Saturday suggests we could see a few more showers, particularly Orlando southward. Later in the weekend, models are less clear cut in terms of moisture return. Some guidance elevates PW to 1.6"+ along the coast where others maintain status quo values in the lower 1" range. That said, the latest NBM leans toward more isolated shower and storm coverage, whereas a GFS- leaning solution would nudge rain chances upward. For now, we will carry a lower 15-30% rain chance Sunday afternoon with the caveat that these values could climb higher in future updates. Partly cloudy conditions all weekend will allow for plenty of sunshine to heat things up into the mid 80s for most (low 80s behind the sea breeze).

A more active weather pattern arrives early next week as a cold front approaches and a potential shortwave trough forms over north Florida. Early indications are that the front may slow down a bit Monday into Tuesday and remain over or near central Florida for long enough to help enhance rain chances. Nuances in the strength and position of the H5 shortwave lead to more questions about where the most widespread rainfall will occur along the Florida Peninsula. Timing differences exist with some ensemble QPF leaning toward higher rain amounts Monday P.M. and others favoring Tuesday P.M. into early Wednesday. Additionally, a smattering of guidance tries to spin up a low pressure system (or two) along the front, moving offshore into the Atlantic Tuesday or Wednesday. Due to better agreement in the overall pattern, along with 1.6-1.7+" PW present, the chance for rain is trending up early next week. Temperatures gradually return to near or slightly below normal as the front pushes south from Tuesday onward.

MARINE

Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Small craft should exercise caution this evening in the Gulf Stream, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Boating conditions will continue improving overnight into Wednesday with poor to hazardous seas returning late Wednesday night into Thursday. Onshore flow continues around 10-18 kt with seas 4-5 ft (6 ft occasionally offshore). Seas build on Thursday as winds freshen again, reaching 5-7 ft (8 ft well offshore). Poor to hazardous boating lingers late week into the start of the weekend, particularly beyond 20nm. Isolated to scattered showers are possible through Saturday, with the higher chance for rain and isolated storms on Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 143 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Mostly dry with VFR prevailing. A persistent pattern continues with breezy east winds around 10-13 kts this afternoon and again on Wednesday. East winds will be slow to diminish this evening becoming 5 kts or less across much of east central Florida late tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 63 80 65 82 / 10 20 10 60 MCO 64 82 65 84 / 10 20 10 60 MLB 66 80 67 81 / 10 20 30 50 VRB 64 81 66 82 / 10 20 30 50 LEE 62 84 64 85 / 0 20 0 60 SFB 62 84 65 84 / 10 20 10 60 ORL 64 84 65 84 / 10 20 10 60 FPR 64 81 65 82 / 10 20 30 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.