textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 207 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

- A cold front is expected this evening which will bring the coldest temperatures yet this season, especially early Saturday and Sunday mornings over the interior with wind chills in the lower to mid-40s forecast

- The next chance for rainfall will be early to mid-week next week. However, there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast; at least minor coastal/marine impacts appear increasingly likely mid to late week

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin over previous weeks. We are monitoring a low potential for heavy rainfall along the coast next week. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather across east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate clear skies north of the Treasure Coast, as well as Okeechobee county with partly sunny skies across the aforementioned areas. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 70s. Dew points are in the low 40s to low 50s north of Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee and the mid 50s to low 60s to the south. Winds are west to northwest at 5-12mph with gusts up to 15-22mph. Colder air is expected into the weekend as the main cold front moves east- southeast across east central Florida tonight. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s are expected. Minimum apparent temperatures in low 40s to mid 50s are forecast north and west of Martin county inland, as well as near the coast along and north of Titusville. There is a 10-50% chance of minimum apparent temperatures to 40F degrees or below across portions of Lake county, 0-40% across portions of Orange county, as well as Volusia county, in addition to 0-30% across Seminole and 0-25% across Osceola county. The maximum time period for apparent temperatures at or below 40F degrees will be 1-2 hours (if they occur).

The Weekend... The dry weather is expected to continue as expansive high pressure (~1026mb-1032mb) builds to the north over the central CONUS on Saturday and the Ohio Valley on Sunday. North winds at 6-12mph with gusts up to 20mph on Saturday are forecast to shift northeast on Sunday. Cooler temperatures are forecast with highs in the low 60s to around 70F (~1-4+ below normal degrees) forecast to increase slightly on Sunday into the low to upper 70s. Low temperatures in the low to upper 40s are forecast north of I-4 with the upper 40s to mid 50s to the south. Expect similar apparent temperatures and probabilities for apparent temperatures to Friday night for Saturday night.

Monday-Thursday... There is a great deal of uncertainty in the long term forecast with deterministic models, as well as the LREF-ensemble clusters diverging with multiple potential solutions that would result in a different forecast for east central Florida. Guidance is in fairly good agreement until Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless, high pressure is expected to build to the north over the eastern CONUS with a gradual increase in temperatures and precipitation chances expected into the workweek as onshore flow develops. Winds are expected to become breezy from the northeast on Monday before becoming breezy to windy on Thursday. Although there is a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast, there is also the potential for coastal impacts with persistent onshore flow in place, especially mid to late week. Moisture increases on Tuesday with isolated to scattered (~20-50% chance) onshore moving showers with scattered to numerous showers and a low chance for lightning storms mid to late week. Seasonable to below normal temperatures are forecast on Monday with likely seasonable to above normal temperatures into late week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1242 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions forecast through tonight into Saturday. High clouds continue to diminish as drier air builds in behind a cold front, leading to clear/mostly clear skies. Another reinforcing cold front moves through the area into tonight, with no additional cloud cover or rainfall expected with this boundary. W/NW winds will continue across the area with speeds generally around 7-10 knots.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for Cocoa (COCF1), Geneva (GENF1), Sanford (SNFF1), and Astor (ASTF1) on the St. Johns. The river west of Cocoa is in Major Flood Stage with a slow rise forecast. The other points are within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid next week, but here is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any implications for ongoing flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 46 64 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 47 65 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 52 67 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 52 70 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 46 64 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 47 65 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 48 64 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 51 68 51 76 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.