textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Patchy, locally dense fog will continue to be possible across portions of east central Florida early this week.

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast through midweek, with isolated showers possible mainly along the Treasure Coast. - A stronger cold front then moves through early on Thanksgiving, leading to cooler than normal temperatures late week, with mostly dry conditions persisting.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Today-Tuesday...A weak front will continue to slide south, eventually stalling across the Lake Okeechobee region this morning. This boundary will become more diffuse and will eventually dissipate as it lifts back north Tuesday. Isolated showers will continue near this front, mainly over the waters. However, some of these showers may be able to push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast with a developing low level E/NE flow. Have maintained rain chances around 20 percent across this area today and again late tonight through Tuesday morning. Otherwise, it will remain mostly dry through early this week. May be a tad cooler along the Volusia County coast today, where highs are forecast in the upper 70s. Otherwise, the front provides no real change in temperatures, with a building ridge aloft maintaining warmer than normal conditions today and Tuesday, with highs for most locations in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Patchy, locally dense fog will continue to be possible due to lighter low level winds this morning and again late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Greatest potential for fog will be along the Treasure Coast and into the interior through early this morning, and then mainly across the interior late tonight/early Tuesday morning.

Wednesday-Friday...Ridge aloft weakens and shifts eastward as a large mid/upper level trough shifts into the eastern U.S. and eventually pushes a stronger cold front through the region late Wednesday night into early Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible along the Treasure Coast and across the coastal waters into Wednesday and Thursday as front approaches and moves through the region. The potential for a storm or two will also exist, mainly over the gulf stream waters where instability will be a little higher. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue through mid to late week.

Highs continue to climb into Wednesday, reaching the low to mid 80s. Max temps then fall into Thanksgiving Day behind the cold front, ranging from the upper 60s along the Volusia County coast, and into the 70s farther south and inland, except near 80 degrees across southern portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Highs then fall even further into Friday to the mid 60s to low 70s, as a north-northeast breeze continues to usher in cooler than normal temps. Lows fall into the 50s most areas Thursday and Friday night, but northwest of I-4 min temps are forecast to fall even lower in the mid to upper 40s.

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure quickly builds in north of the front Saturday, tightening the pressure gradient and leading to a breezy onshore flow through the weekend. This will begin to modify the cool and dry airmass in place. Highs will rise to the low to mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Sunday. Overnight lows will also return to the 60s for most areas Saturday and Sunday nights. As moisture gradually increases, isolated to scattered onshore moving showers will develop, initially along the Treasure Coast Saturday and then across much of east central FL Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions forecast. Weak front settles southward and stalls across the southern Treasure Coast waters this morning and lingers there until it gradually dissipates as it lifts northward Tuesday. Northeast winds around 5-10 knots forecast across the coastal waters becoming east-southeast into tonight. Seas 1-3 feet today, increasing to 2-4 feet tonight. Isolated showers will continue to be possible over the coastal waters, mainly south of the Cape and also across the offshore Volusia waters.

Tuesday-Friday...Boating conditions will remain favorable through midweek, with winds generally out of the south-southeast around 5-10 knots and seas 2-3 feet. A stronger cold front then moves through the region late Wednesday night into early Thanksgiving Day, which will lead to increasing northerly winds that will produce poor to hazardous boating conditions into late week. Wind speeds will increase to 15-20 knots Thursday and remain breezy into Friday, building seas up to 5-7 feet.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the waters Tuesday through Thursday. A storm or two may also potentially develop, mainly over the gulf stream waters as front approaches Wednesday and moves through early Thursday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1233 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Patchy fog/stratus possible again this morning as a weak frontal boundary sags in CFL. Chances for MVFR VIS impacts have increased at KMLB-KFPR, from 10% or less in 12Z HREF to 20-40% in 00Z HREF, and remain about the same at KMCO and other inland terminals at 10-30%, lowest at KSFB. Models remain inconsistent with IFR VIS potential, and MIFG causing erroneous obs isn't helping. Decent confidence the worst of the stratus will stay west of the ECFL terminals. Kept TAFS VFR-MVFR for this package, and will AMD for IFR conditions as needed. Any fog/stratus that manages to develop should dissipate by around 14Z at the latest, if not sooner. There is a low (20-30%) chance for showers INVOF KVRB-KSUA through the night and morning, highest in the morning. Light overnight NNW-NE winds shift ENE 5-10 kts in the afternoon, becoming light again late this evening while veering ESE-SE.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 79 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 82 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 65 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 81 65 82 64 / 20 10 20 10 LEE 82 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 82 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 64 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 80 64 82 64 / 20 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.