textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Frequently gusty ENE/E winds and drier today will lead to very sensitive to critical fire weather conditions.

- Beach and boating conditions remain poor to hazardous through at least the middle of the week.

- Warming trend Friday into the weekend, with isolated lightning storm chances gradually returning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Current-Tonight...Post-frontal conditions as drier and cooler air filter down the peninsula. The pressure gradient remains rather tight into today. Current NE winds fall to around 5 mph across the interior and Volusia coast early this morning, with winds remaining elevated 12-16 mph along the Space/Treasure coasts and higher gusts. During the daylight hours, veering ENE/E winds will ramp back up to 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts. Over much of the interior wind gusts will approach 25 mph at times and up to 30 mph (possibly 35 mph) along the Space/Treasure coasts. Winds diminish during the evening. Mainly dry conditions forecast today with MSunny skies, though may see some stratocu pushing onto the Space & Treasure coasts early in the period. Highs will reach the U70s along the coast and 80F to L80s into the interior. With the onshore flow, overnight mins will keep in the 60s along the coast with U50s (few M50s) across the interior. May have to monitor for tonight in the event a small PoP is necessary over the local coastal waters or along the coast for light, onshore-moving, precip.

Expect poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions to continue today. At the beaches, moderate to strong onshore flow will keep rough surf ongoing. A HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life- threatening rip currents will also be present at ALL central FL Atlc beaches. Entering the dangerous surf remains strongly discouraged!

Wed-Mon...Aloft, weak shortwave ridging across the Deep South will slide eastward over the FL peninsula into early Wed. A weak "troughy" pattern in the mid-levels takes up residency over the region later Wed into late work-week. At the surface, weak high pressure builds from the southeast U.S. into the western Atlc. This will keep any frontal passages at bay until at least Sun night into early Mon. A weakening onshore flow pattern exists from mid to late work-week. We may still have to monitor for some "low-topped" coastal showers early Wed into Thu, though chances (if introduced) should remain 20pct or less. The pressure gradient remains weak into the weekend and on Mon and expect "daily" late day/early evening sea breeze boundary collisions across the interior. ISOLD-WDLY SCT (20-30pct) convection may ignite from these collisions with modest moisture present.

More seasonal high temps continuepotential Wed/Thu, with the onshore flow - U70s coast and L80s interior, then a warming trend ensues Fri-Mon with max values approaching M-U80s and potential 90F over the interior (Sun-Mon).

Onshore flow will continue to keep coastal areas in the 60s for mins, and drier air will allow interior locations to dip into the M- U50s thru Fri morning, with 60s returning almost areawide Sat-Tue mornings.

MARINE

Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue and we will slowly trim back the Small Craft Advisory (north to south) during the day and tonight as winds/seas gradually diminish/subside. Onshore winds continue to slacken mid-week into late work-week. As this happens, we may see an offshore component develop at night Fri overnight into the weekend, with winds, again, transitioning to onshore each afternoon. Seas 3-5 ft areawide by early Wed, continuing to subside to AOB 3 ft areawide by early Fri. We'll see if any light precip (20pct or less) can develop across the local waters later tonight thru Thu.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals. Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots continue early this morning, with wind gusts to 25 knots still ongoing from VRB southward. Winds pick back up to 15 to 20 knots after 15Z with gusts to 30 knots possible. Dry conditions areawide. Winds become lighter around 10 knots late this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Very sensitive fire weather conditions will exist today. Breezy to windy ENE/E winds 15-20 mph, with wind gusts to around 25 mph across the interior and up to 30 to 35 mph along the coast. Min RH values will fall to 28-35% across much of the interior this afternoon within the Red Flag Warning, and generally 40-50% across coastal areas. Conditions along the coast will also remain very sensitive as winds are highest here.

Easterly winds diminish to 10-15 mph Wednesday, while RH recovers to 40-50% across the interior. Very Good to Excellent dispersion may lead to control issues into mid-week. Onshore winds continue to slacken Thursday into the weekend, with a slight RH recovery - though lowest RHs across the interior will still realize 35-45%. Potential sea breeze collisions daily beginning Thursday across the interior into the weekend. Will monitor for isolated lightning storm threat as any cloud-to-ground lightning strikes could initiate new fire starts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 79 60 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 80 60 79 62 / 0 0 10 0 MLB 78 65 78 65 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 78 63 78 64 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 82 58 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 81 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 81 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 77 63 78 62 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ572.