textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Deep moisture and light southwest flow will continue high afternoon and evening rain chances along the sea breeze collision through Tuesday. A few strong storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, localized wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall.

- Drier air builds mid to late week, noticeably reducing rain chances from Thursday onward.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures continue this afternoon. A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Current-Tuesday...Highest afternoon/evening rain chances across the eastern peninsula with sea breeze/boundary collisions. ISOLD-SCT lightning storms will develop initially along the inland moving sea breezes, with coverage and intensity (SCT-NMRS/50-70% today & 30-60% Tue) increasing late day/early evening from numerous boundary collisions. Storm steering will be light out of the SW/W bringing storms back to the coast, though movement will be erratic at times surrounding strong collisions. A few storms locally strong with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-55 mph locally, and heavy downpours leading to minor/nuisance flooding which will be handled with Flood Advisories as necessary. Activity will diminish thru mid-late evening, though light debris rainfall could linger a bit. Skies gradually thinning thru the night.

Max temps in the L-M90s each day with peak heat indices 102-107F ahead of sea breeze/precip. Min temps consistent and in the 70s with conditions remaining very humid.

Wed-Sun...Weak high pressure ridging continues across the central to south/central FL peninsula into the weekend. Drier air forecast Thu/Fri with arrival of Saharan Dust, then a potential resurgence of moisture this weekend. ISOLD-SCT (20-50%) showers and storms forecast on Wed, then mostly dry on Thu (5-20% - highest moisture north of I-4), (10-40% - south) for Fri, and 20-50% for this weekend. The main weather story for this period will likely be the building heat across the area. Mid-level ridging across the region will become stronger as subsidence increases and H500 temps range between -5.5C to -7.0C. All of this will lead to a period of above normal temperatures, especially near and north of I- 4. For much of this period expect highs in the L-M90s near the coast and M-U90s into the interior - highest values near/north of I-4. A building HeatRisk is expected to affect those without adequate cooling and hydration. Trends will be monitored for any potential Heat Advisories as peak heat index values may near or exceed the 108F threshold across portions of the area by late week.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Thru Fri...Weak high pressure ridging will continue across the central/south-central FL peninsula thru the period. This will produce generally favorable winds/seas this week. Primary boating concern will center around afternoon/evening lightning storms thru mid-week that may affect the intracoastal and near shore waters. Light SW/S flow will transition onshore each afternoon with sea breeze formation and push inland. Highest rain chances today will promote SCT to locally NMRS coverage, with SCT coverage near the coast into Wed before drier air filters into the area Thu/Fri with reduced chances. Late aftn/evening winds may increase to 14-17 kts over the open Atlc, but otherwise speeds AOB 15 kts outside of storms. Winds/seas locally higher invof convection. Seas 1-2 ft occasionally increase to 3 ft far offshore early this week, and by Thursday, seas build to more widely range 2-3 ft across the local waters (perhaps 4 ft briefly well offshore north of Cape).

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Scattered showers and storms are ongoing this evening, mainly from KISM to TIX northward. Have maintained a TEMPO for LEE through 01Z for MVFR CIGs and VIS as well as wind gusts of 25KT. Lingering showers and storms will be possible through 04Z in some locations. Dry conditions are then forecast with light and variable winds overnight. Winds then become south to southwest and increase to 10 KT or less by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop in the late morning/early afternoon, around 16Z/17Z, turning the winds onshore along the coast behind the sea breeze. Widely scattered showers and storms are once again forecast along the east coast sea breeze, with convection increasing and expanding as the west coast sea breeze and pushes in. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur near to west of I-95 and east of MCO in the afternoon. Have included VCSH starting around 16Z from FPR-SUA, and VCTS starting 16/17Z along the Treasure coast and 18Z for everyone else. Have not included TEMPOs at this time. VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 93 77 94 / 40 40 20 30 MCO 76 94 77 95 / 40 60 30 40 MLB 76 91 78 92 / 20 40 10 40 VRB 75 91 77 92 / 10 40 10 20 LEE 77 93 78 95 / 20 40 20 20 SFB 77 95 77 95 / 50 50 30 40 ORL 77 93 78 94 / 40 60 30 40 FPR 74 91 76 91 / 10 50 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.