textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Numerous showers and storms will impact the area this afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. A few storms could become strong or severe, with a 5-10% chance for damaging winds up to 60 mph and quarter-size hail.

- Beneficial rainfall is expected, but repeated storms may lead to minor flooding in urban areas.

- A strong cold front moves through Monday night, bringing gusty winds and hazardous boating conditions. Much cooler air arrives Tuesday morning, with lows falling into the 40s across the Orlando and Daytona Beach areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Current-Tonight...A warm front continues to progress northward of the area this afternoon as winds have veered SE/S in its wake. Wind speeds will approach 10-15 mph inland with 15-20 mph speeds along the Space/Treasure coasts. Higher gusts are expected. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions as afternoon temperatures soar into the 80s areawide. Shortwave impulses embedded in the SW flow aloft will traverse the FL peninsula later today aiding in SCT-NMRS convection. 500 mb temperatures on the order of -11.5C to -12.5C areawide will promote moderate instability. PWATs surging northward in the wake of the warm front will average 1.55-1.80 inches.

The atmosphere is only lightly "capped" so we expect early convective initiation with increasing coverage and intensity thru the afternoon and early evening. The ECSB and additional boundary collisions will play a role throughout the day as well. PoPs generally 70-80% late today. Storm steering is toward the north/northeast at 15-25 mph and primary storm threats include frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-55 mph - one or two storms possibly to 60 mph, coin-sized hail, and torrential downpours. Cannot rule out some minor urban flooding where storms repeat. ALL of ECFL remains within a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms as outlined by the Storms Prediction Center.

Activity winds down thru mid-late evening across land. Continued warm & humid overnight with mins in the 60s areawide. Fog is not anticipated overnight (perhaps low stratus clouds) as SSW 925 MB winds ramp up to 25-35 kts off the deck.

Mon-Mon Night...The pressure gradient tightens in advance of an approaching strong cold front, poised to cross central FL Mon night. S/SW winds will approach 20 mph sustained and frequently gusty - up to 25-35 mph. SW flow aloft continues with occasional vorticity maxima embedded within. 500 mb temps remain -11C to -12C as moderate instability continues. Storm (speed) shear will be stronger than on Sun (still uni-directional) and we are again expecting an active afternoon/early evening with NMRS-WDSD shower and storm coverage. Activity will be racing northeastward at 35-45 mph. With potential multiple rounds and from the previous day's rainfall, we may still need to monitor for minor flooding in some locations. For most areas, rainfall totals Sun-Mon will be 0.50-1.50" with locally 3-4" possible. Primary storm threats again will be frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, coin-sized hail, torrential downpours, and possibly a "low" tornado threat. We continue to remain in a Day 2 Marginal Risk across much of the area.

Expect another warm day ahead of the front, with low to mid 80s - few U80s within reach across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified...

Remainder of Next Week...Once the front gets south of ECFL Mon night, much cooler air rushes in. Quite a temperature gradient by daybreak on Tue, with 50s along the Treasure and immediate Space Coasts and 40s elsewhere. There is a 20-30% chance of reaching the U30s over northern Lake and Volusia counties. Lowest wind chills are likely to dip into the M-U30s NW of I-4. High temps on Tue will struggle to reach the U50s to L60s from Orlando northward, with M- U60s a "reach" farther south. Aside from a lingering shower along the Treasure Coast, Tue should be mostly dry.

Similarly, cold temperatures are forecast on Wed morning over our northern communities. Winds turn onshore Wed, beginning some modest warming (U60s to L70s). This begins a timeframe of lower confidence, with the nearby trough potentially sparking bands of rain over the southern peninsula. Just how far north the rain gets remains in question, but at the very least, we should see quite a bit of cloudiness. We currently have 20-30% rain chances Wed/Thu from Sebastian southward.

The area of unsettled weather to our south should begin to move seaward beginning Fri, leaving only low shower chances along the immediate Treasure Coast. Seasonably mild high temps on Fri should warm into the weekend, as probabilities for high temps of 80 deg F + reach 60-80% by that time.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Fairly stout convection this morning offshore in association with a warm front passing through. Late today into evening, expect another round of (offshore-moving) showers and lightning storms. Some of which could be strong to severe. Threats include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 40 kts, small to coin-size hail, torrential downpours, and a couple waterspouts in play. This scenario gets repeated on Mon in the afternoon/evening ahead of a strong cold front that will pass over the waters Mon night. Offshore-moving storms on Mon will race northeastward at 35-45 kts. Seas also locally higher invof convection. High pressure builds into the area behind the front thru mid-week, as the former front stalls across the Bahamas, but a tight pressure gradient between the two features will persist keeping winds elevated.

SE/S winds (10-15 kts today (15-20 kts tonight offshore) will slowly veer S/SW thru the day on Mon with increasing speeds (20-25 kts well offshore). Winds quickly turn NW behind the front Mon night, continuing northerly Tue-Tue evening, NE into Wed-Thu. Seas will respond (building) by late Mon. Boating conditions become poor to hazardous later tonight into Mon and lasting for much of the upcoming week ahead. Cautionary Statements and Small Craft Advisories will be in play.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

ISO SHRA have started to develop this afternoon in a very unstable environment. Once TSRA get going over SOFL in the next hour or so, expect coverage to quickly increase becomes SCT-NUM while pushing northward. Adjusted TSRA TEMPOs, generally bringing them earlier by an hour focused between 19Z-23Z, and increased the wind gust slightly. SHRA/TSRA gradually diminishing after 00Z, but could still see some impacts at the northern terminals, clearing by around midnight. Very low chance for MVFR CIGs at the inland terminals late tonight into early Monday morning. Breezy/gusty S-SE winds settle to less than 10 kts overnight. 2 KFT winds increasing to 30-40 kts could approach LLWS criteria at the northern terminals early Monday morning. Surface winds quickly increase and veer after around 14Z, becoming 15-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts in the afternoon. Another round of afternoon/evening TSRA Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 65 83 44 60 / 60 70 30 0 MCO 67 83 48 62 / 50 70 30 0 MLB 66 84 52 64 / 50 70 50 10 VRB 66 85 54 65 / 60 70 60 10 LEE 66 82 44 61 / 50 70 20 0 SFB 65 83 46 62 / 50 70 30 0 ORL 67 83 49 62 / 50 70 30 0 FPR 65 85 54 66 / 60 70 60 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.