textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- An elevated fire danger exists across the area today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Brevard and Osceola counties northward from 12PM to 8PM.

- Record setting heat and dry conditions forecast today, with highs reaching the mid-90s across much of the area.

- Rain chances return Friday and into the weekend, with highs remaining above normal and peak heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s for much of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Today-Tonight...Record setting heat and dry conditions are forecast across the area today, as mid level ridge across the Gulf continues to expand across the FL peninsula. At the surface, the ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic shifts south of the area, with low level winds becoming west-southwest and increasing to 10-15 mph into the afternoon, with gusts to 20-25 mph. This offshore flow should prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming north of the Cape, with a delayed and stalled out sea breeze to the south. Widespread highs in the mid-90s are expected even along much of the coast, with daily record highs forecast to be tied or broken at most of the primary climate sites of east central Florida (Orlando and Fort Pierce may fall just short by 1-2 degrees). Even overnight tonight, temperatures remain above normal, with lows only falling to the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Residents and visitors sensitive to heat should take precautions for these well above normal temperatures. Remember, NEVER leave children or pets in cars for any period of time. The increasing heat, as well as dry and gusty conditions today will also lead to an elevated fire weather danger this afternoon and evening.

Friday-Sunday...A weak front will slide southward into north central Florida by early Friday morning before it stalls out and eventually lifts northward into the weekend. Moisture will increase with this boundary, with PW values rising to 1.6-1.8 inches. May see a few showers move in during the morning with the front. Otherwise, rain chances are mainly limited into the afternoon/evening hours north and inland of the Treasure Coast (up to 20-40%). Isolated to scattered showers and storms developing near the front and with the inland moving sea breeze boundaries during the afternoon will have the potential to shift back toward the Brevard/Volusia coasts and offshore into the evening. Sea breeze generated showers and storms will continue each afternoon and evening into the weekend, with greatest PoPs (up to 30-60%) north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast Saturday, and around 20-40% across the area on Sunday. Lingering dry air aloft will continue the potential for isolated strong storms each day, producing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 40-45 mph. Some storms may also produce locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches.

The arrival of the front and return of an onshore flow with the sea breeze will help drop max temps slightly tomorrow. However, highs will still be above normal for much of the region, ranging from the mid to upper 80s at the coast to low 90s for much of the interior. Widespread highs in the low to mid 90s are then forecast into the weekend. The above normal temperatures and more humid conditions, producing heat index values in the mid to upper 90s (and around 100 degrees for some spots) will continue heat impacts, particularly for heat-sensitive individuals, through the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday...Mid/upper level trough moves through the eastern U.S., pushing a cold front toward and eventually through the area early next week. Current projections from the model guidance has this boundary moving through Monday night, with scattered showers and storms developing ahead of the front Monday and pushing offshore, with rain chances increasing up to 40-60%. Increasing W/SW winds aloft may lead to some stronger storm development into Monday afternoon, with the main threats including frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. High pressure pushing off the Mid-Atlantic coast will switch winds quickly onshore behind the front, and with some lingering moisture will still lead to low end rain chances (20-30%) mostly along portions of the coast into Tuesday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are then forecast into the middle of next week.

Increasing cloud cover and rain chances ahead of the front will lower max temps slightly on Monday, but are still forecast to be near to above normal in the upper 80s/low 90s. Highs are then forecast to drop to more seasonable values in the 80s behind the front into Tuesday-Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure across the West Atlantic shifts south of the waters today, with a weak front approaching central Florida late tonight. Southerly winds up to 10-15 knots will become S/SE this afternoon as east coast sea breeze forms. Wind speeds may briefly increase to between 15-20 knots offshore late this afternoon into this evening, leading to temporary poor boating conditions. Otherwise, wind speeds will largely remain 10-15 knots tonight as winds become W/NW. Dry conditions are forecast to continue today into tonight, with seas 2-3 feet.

Friday-Monday...Weak front is now forecast to push into the northern waters into Friday before it stalls and shifts back northward into the weekend. This front will increase moisture and lead to a return of isolated to scattered showers and storms that will initiate from sea breeze development over land. However, a W/SW steering flow will be capable of pushing some of this activity offshore into the afternoon and evening, with isolated stronger storms possible.

Otherwise, boating conditions will be mostly favorable. Offshore winds Friday morning become onshore into the afternoon as sea breeze forms, and then winds will prevail out of the S/SE into the weekend. Wind speeds will generally be 10-15 knots, but may increase to 15-20 knots offshore briefly during the late afternoon/evening hours on Saturday and Sunday. Seas will range from 2-4 feet.

Another weak cold front is forecast to push southward through the waters into early next week, with scattered showers and storms (some strong) developing ahead of the front and pushing offshore. Winds are forecast to become S/SW Monday around 10-15 knots ahead of the front and then become N/NW as front moves through Monday night. Seas will continue to range from 2-4 feet.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR continue thru 00z Fri. before a front approaches, bringing lower CIGs to northern terminals Fri. morning. SW winds increase after 14-15z today to 10-14 kt with gusts 20-25 kt after 17z, turning more WSW with time. The sea breeze is likely to remain pinned near the east coast, but may try to move inland MLB-SUA. The probability for MVFR CIGs increases 07-14z Fri. (60-70+%) as a front approaches from the north. Iso. SHRA/TSRA are possible near MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE at or beyond the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions will exist across east central Florida today as record highs in the mid 90s and dry conditions produce Min RH values as low as the upper 20s to mid 30s for much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and evening from Osceola and Brevard counties northward where critically low RH and gusty west to southwest winds around 15 mph are forecast to coincide. While near to critically low RH is also forecast farther south, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below 15 mph. However, this will still lead to sensitive fire weather conditions across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. The east coast sea breeze will likely form near to south of the Cape, but will be delayed, switching winds to the southeast this afternoon. This is forecast to keep Min RH values just above critical values along the immediate coast where the sea breeze is able to form. Dispersion will be very good to excellent today, which may lead to control issues.

A weak front pushes into the north central Florida tomorrow before lifting northward into the weekend. This will increase moisture, keeping RH values above critical values, but will also help generate isolated to scattered lightning storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours from late week into this weekend.

CLIMATE

Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for today, Thursday, May 7th:

Site May 7 Daytona 93 (1952) Leesburg 94 (1984) Sanford 94 (2009) Orlando 98 (1915) Melbourne 91 (1980) Vero Beach 93 (1947) Fort Pierce 95 (1906)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 97 74 86 73 / 0 10 20 20 MCO 96 74 92 74 / 0 10 40 30 MLB 94 75 88 77 / 0 0 20 20 VRB 95 72 89 77 / 0 0 10 10 LEE 94 74 91 73 / 0 10 40 10 SFB 97 73 92 73 / 0 10 40 30 ORL 96 74 92 74 / 0 10 40 30 FPR 94 71 90 76 / 0 0 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.