textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Gradually increasing rain chances early in the week with scattered to numerous coverage by Tuesday-Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall possible along the coast Tuesday-Thursday.

- Significant coastal and marine hazards are likely early-mid week continuing into late week as East winds increase. Winds and seas will build across the local coastal waters with rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion possible. Expect numerous, strong life- threatening rip currents at area beaches.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin over previous weeks. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Current-Mon...Another cool start to the morning with temperatures beginning in the 40s/50s. At least one more dry day today, with moisture gradually returning into Mon and an increase in PoP chances esp along the Space/Treasure coasts. Onshore flow strengthens on Mon with breezy/gusty conditions nearly areawide. An upper level disturbance moves into the Deep South on Mon and across the Florida peninsula Mon night with ISOLD-SCT showers forecast. Slightly below normal temperatures today/Mon with maxes in the L-M70s, except few U70s across the Treasure Coast. With the addition of moisture and strengthening of onshore flow our min temps overnight into Mon morning will recover into the M-U50s over the interior and L60s near the coast, except M60s along the St. Lucie/Martin coasts. For Mon night/Tue morning our lows will only fall into the U50s N/W of I-4 with 60s most everywhere else.

Tue-Sat...Surface high pressure encompasses much of the eastern CONUS and combined with lower pressure across the western Atlc will produce a tight pressure gradient through much of this period. This will allow for a continuation of breezy to potentially windy onshore (gusty) winds each day remaining a bit elevated over the interior and breezy/gusty along the coast each night. An unsettled (troughy) pattern will continue aloft across the Florida peninsula with ample moisture in place. This set-up could allow for heavy rainfall (esp along the coast) at least Tue-Thu. Presently, the Weather Prediction Center has outlooked eastern FL under a Marginal threat for Excessive Rainfall these three days. Low confidence in exactly where heavy bands may set up, but we do not anticipate as much rainfall as we saw a couple of weeks ago. Much will depend on the strength/position of a low/trough forecast to develop near/east of the Bahamas early/mid week. This feature will gradually track northeast away from eastern FL, but additional impacts will include poor/hazardous boating conditions and building seas creating rough, pounding surf along the coast with minor beach erosion likely, as well as strong rip currents. Rain chances increase areawide (Tue- Fri) - highest along the coast. A low chance for lightning storms will also be forecast. By Wed, temperatures for highs will be near to slightly above climo. Low temperatures will be above normal for much of this period.

MARINE

Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Thru Thursday...With high pressure to the north and developing low pressure over the western Atlc, boating conditions will deteriorate early in the week thru late week as the pgrad tightens and onshore winds increase. Wind speeds will approach 15-25 kts with frequent higher gusts by late Mon-Thu. Seas 2-4 ft today will build 4-6 ft Mon, 5-7 ft Mon night, 6-8 ft thru Tue night, then 8-11 ft Wed-Thu. Small Craft Advisories will be necessary by Mon continuing thru much of the week as conditions remain unsettled. Moisture returns and precip chances increase gradually beginning on Mon, then ramping up to SCT-NMRS shower coverage (ISOLD lightning) Mon night thru at least Thu.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions generally expected to continue through tonight into Monday. Low level winds veer from the NE to E/NE on Monday as high pressure across the central U.S. shifts east. This will gradually lead to increasing moisture that will aid in isolated to scattered onshore moving showers, primarily tomorrow. However, can't rule out a few onshore moving showers into tonight. This activity may produce brief MVFR conditions, but with PoPs mostly around 20-30% will limit mention in the TAFs to VCSH.

N/NE winds around 7-11 knots will diminish only slightly to 5-8 knots tonight. Winds then veer to the E/NE and increase to 11-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible through the late morning and afternoon on Monday.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for Cocoa (COCF1), Geneva (GENF1), and Astor (ASTF1) on the St. Johns. The river west of Cocoa is in Major Flood Stage but appears to be cresting and is now forecast to begin a slow decline next week. The other points (Deland and Sanford) are forecast to remain in Action stage which is below Minor flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid next week, but there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any implications for ongoing flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 61 73 64 74 / 0 10 80 80 MCO 59 75 64 75 / 0 10 30 20 MLB 65 75 68 76 / 10 30 40 50 VRB 65 78 68 78 / 0 40 50 70 LEE 55 74 60 74 / 0 0 30 30 SFB 59 74 63 75 / 0 10 40 40 ORL 59 74 64 75 / 0 10 30 20 FPR 64 77 67 76 / 0 30 50 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.