textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

- The Flood Watch has been extended through Tuesday morning for the coastal counties and Okeechobee County. Heavy rainfall amounts up to 16 to 22 inches across southern Brevard County since midnight have led to widespread flooding from the Melbourne area south to Grant- Valkaria. Turn around, don't drown. Do not drive into flooded roadways.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions persist due to rough seas and brisk easterly winds. 5-7 ft breakers and numerous, life- threatening rip currents are expected today at our beaches. Do not enter the ocean! Minor to moderate tidal flooding remains possible, mainly south of St Lucie Inlet.

- Rain chances gradually decrease from mid to late week, with high temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s each day. A more significant cold front may arrive in about a week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Heavy to extreme rainfall has occurred over portions of the coastline, with multiple communities inundated. The mid-level disturbance is forecast to weaken into tonight, providing some relief. However, persistent, heavy showers and storms remain a threat through the afternoon hours along the Treasure Coast. As we transition into the evening and overnight, PoPs are forecast to decrease, but scattered, onshore moving showers (PoPs up to 50%), will remain possible. Any additional rainfall will inhibit the ability for water to drain, so have continued the Flood Watch for Okeechobee and the coastal counties through the overnight hours. Wave heights appear to have lingered higher than previously forecast, so have extended the High Surf Advisory into tonight.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The disturbance that has produced heavy rainfall over portions of the area will wash out through mid-week, diminishing the overall threat. However, high PWATs 1.7-2" linger over the area through Wednesday, with an upper level disturbance over the western Atlantic. Therefore, scattered showers and a few storms remain forecast, especially Tuesday (PoPs 30-60%). While additional rainfall totals of 1-2" are possible, any additional rainfall could exacerbate ongoing, lingering flooding. Thus, the Flood Watch has been extended through 10 AM for the coast and Okeechobee County. Continued breezy onshore winds Tuesday, with gusts 20-25 mph, will slacken into Wednesday, as the pressure gradient slackens. High temperatures will remain warm, in the lower to mid-80s, while onshore flow keeps low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday-Sunday...A series of upper level shortwaves look to transit the area late week and into this weekend. While temperature changes will be limited, drier air (nearer to normal PWATs) will filter into the area, providing a welcome break from the higher coverage of showers. While some rain will be possible, current PoPs are limited to around 20% or less. Lighter winds become NNW through the weekend, helping to give some relief to the persistent onshore flow. Temperatures are forecast to remain warm, only decreasing to near normal (lower 80s) during the daytime hours. Overnight lows fall slightly, but remain in the 60s for most areas. A stronger, drier front will approach the area early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Hazardous boating conditions continue. Fresh easterly flow in a tight pressure gradient over Florida continues to cause rough seas over the local Atlantic. Strong high pressure will remain north of the waters early this week, before gradually weakening by midweek. An upper-level disturbance will continue to spark scattered to numerous showers and a few storms through Tuesday. More tranquil conditions by mid to late week will improve boating conditions. A diffuse cold front is expected to reach the area late Friday into Saturday.

Small Craft Advisories continue through Tuesday afternoon for all of the Atlantic and extend into Tuesday night for the offshore waters. East winds 15-20 kts on Tuesday slacken to below 15 kts Wednesday, then veer offshore into late week. Seas 7-9ft this afternoon diminish through the period, but remain poor to hazardous into late week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 104 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

NMRS SHRA/Isold TSRA will continue in the KTIX-KSUA corridor thru 22z and progress gradually inland toward KMCO-KISM from 22z-03z. Brief lowering of CIGS to 010 and IFR Vsbys will accompany the heavy rainfall. Deep moisture continues across central FL with onshore easterly flow, gusty at times for cstl terminals through this evening. Some banded showers should move inland overnight with scattered Atlantic showers bringing a chance of passing showers at coastal terminals. Have included VCSH for cstl terminals thru 14z, with shower chcs redeveloping for interior airports aft 03/14z in the moist easterly flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 81 71 82 / 50 30 10 20 MCO 70 83 71 85 / 30 50 10 30 MLB 72 83 73 83 / 60 50 20 20 VRB 72 84 73 85 / 50 60 40 20 LEE 69 84 69 86 / 20 40 10 50 SFB 71 84 71 85 / 40 40 10 30 ORL 71 83 71 85 / 30 50 10 30 FPR 71 83 72 84 / 50 50 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for FLZ041-058-141-154-159- 164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ044>046-053-144.

High Surf Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ575.