textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Minor coastal flooding impacts are expected to linger through one more high tide cycle Friday afternoon. Do not drive your vehicle into salt water. Follow local officials' advice to avoid flooded areas.

- Dangerous conditions will persist at our beaches through the weekend. Rough surf and numerous rip currents exist along our entire shoreline, and significant erosion has occurred. Stay out of the ocean. Mariners should reconsider Atlantic boating due to gusty winds and 5 to 10 ft seas.

- Onshore flow with gusts 20 to 30 mph continues through the weekend. There is a low chance of lightning storms capable of gusts to around 45 mph. The threat of locally excessive rain may increase from Saturday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Rest of Today-Friday...The mid-upper level pattern begins to amplify, driven by deepening troughs over the Pacific coast, and in the western North Atlantic. Ridging builds over the central to eastern US in response, though a lobe of vorticity caught in the pattern will cause some disruption of the ridge structure as it lifts from Mexico and Texas into the Central Plains, before elongating across much of the eastern US. The building ridge ushers weak low pressure near the Bahamas out sea, and along with surface high pressure diving southeast from the northern US/Canada, reinforces surface high pressure over the eastern US. The southern flank of the strengthening high settles over Central Florida, keeping the pressure gradient relatively tight while gradually veering flow from northeasterly to more easterly. Gusty/breezy conditions are forecast in the afternoons (gusts 20-25 mph, possibly up to 30 mph at times), with gentler winds overnight. While winds and King Tides are slowly relenting, and the highest water levels are in the rear-view mirror, we won't shake the coastal flooding until the weekend, and dangerous beach conditions are likely to persist through the weekend. The Coastal Flood Warning has been allowed to expire, but a Coastal Flood Advisory takes its place through Friday for minor coastal flood and beach erosion during the high tides, especially the higher tide Friday in the late morning/early afternoon. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today for breaking waves up to 7 ft, and while wave heights are forecast to drop below criteria Friday, the surf will remain rough and continue to produce life- threatening rip currents. A Rip Current Statement remains in effect.

Drier air filtering towards Florida around the high will still have higher than normal moisture, knocking rain chances down but not eliminating them. Isolated to scattered showers currently moving onshore (which are expected to continue the next several days) are much spottier than previous days, greatly reducing the heavy rainfall threat. That said, decreased cloud cover has opened the door for more effective destabilization from daytime heating, and this morning's soundings lack the inversions that were capping updraft growth for many days (despite model soundings still sporting them), providing a more favorable environment for deep convection. Overall instability will be limited by very warm mid-levels and frankly pathetic lapse rates. All together, can't rule out isolated lightning storms capable of occasional cloud to ground lightning. Gusts to around 45 mph due to drier air aloft, and brief downpours will be possible with any storms and heavy showers that manage to form. Highest chances for lightning storms, such as they are at 20% or less, will be in the afternoons and evenings, but isolated onshore moving heavy showers will be possible around the clock. Temperatures seasonally warm with highs in the L-M80s and lows in the U60s-M70s.

Halloween...Not quite the trick-or-treating weather we'd hope for, as onshore flow keeps rain chances above normal in gusty and humid conditions. Central Florida remains under the southern flank of deep high pressure over the eastern US sliding towards the coast. The relatively tight pressure gradient will produce breezy/gusty onshore (easterly) flow in the afternoon and evening, with gusts 25-30 mph. While still drier than earlier this week, above normal moisture will keep the humidity higher than we'd like, and support isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon, evening, and overnight. There is a low risk (20% chance or less) for isolated lightning storms capable of occasional cloud to ground lightning. Storms that manage to form and heavy showers will also be capable of brief downpours, and drier air aloft could help produce wind gusts to around 45 mph. Temperatures remain seasonably warm with highs in the L-M80s and lows in the L-M70s, with trick-or-treating temperatures in the U-M70s, up to around 80 along the southernmost coast.

At the beaches, surf will remain rough and dangerous with numerous life-threatening rip currents present. Entering the water is not advised. In the Atlantic waters, poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger, especially in the Gulf Stream.

Sunday-Wednesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...The setup appears favorable for an uptick in rain and even isolated (20%) lightning coverage, and statistical guidance keeps rain chances to 60-80% on Sunday. The deep onshore flow combined with modest upper jet diffluence is at least somewhat concerning for the potential of locally heavy rain. This may lead to flooding of poorly drained areas, especially along the coast on Sunday.

Beach conditions are likely to remain hazardous. A slight uptick in onshore flow may be enough for us to need another High Surf Advisory for a portion of this period. Either way, life- threatening rip currents and rough surf are expected to persist.

Mid to late next week, onshore flow should begin to relax as high pressure nudges over the peninsula, allowing rain chances to decrease to 20-30%. A subtropical jet stream disturbance that reaches the Southeast U.S. by around next Thursday and its front may approach the area by late next Thursday or Friday (11/6), giving us our next chance for at least scattered showers and storms. High temps should remain warm, in the low/mid 80s.

It's far too early to tell whether the front late next week poses a threat for strong to severe storms. However, the overall pattern suggests an enhanced subtropical jet developing as we head deeper into November. This is in line with expectations from a strong El Nino, and it is a key component to the periods of active weather we expect to see this upcoming winter.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist over the local Atlantic waters of Central Florida through at least the upcoming weekend, especially in the Gulf Stream. A weak low will move away from the Bahamas over the next couple of days, as the southern flank of a strong area of high pressure drifting toward the Mid- Atlantic this weekend settles across Central Florida. This will keep moderate to fresh onshore winds in place. Scattered to, at times, numerous showers are forecast.

NE winds 15-20 kt through Friday, with seas 5-9 ft. Winds turn more ENE on Saturday at 15-25 kt. Seas pick back up to 6-10 ft this weekend. Intracoastal and inshore waterways very choppy to rough.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Primarily VFR conditions through the TAF period in NE flow 10-20 knots, decreasing tonight. SCT SHRA will cause brief MVFR CIG/VSBY conds and handling this with TEMPOs MLB-SUA and PROB30 at MCO/SFB. On Fri, winds veer slightly, more ENE, at 10-15 knots with some higher gusts. There will continue to be ISOLD-SCT SHRA crossing the coast so will probably need VCSH.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 81 72 81 / 30 30 10 10 MCO 72 84 72 84 / 20 20 10 20 MLB 73 83 74 83 / 30 30 30 40 VRB 73 84 74 83 / 40 40 30 40 LEE 70 83 70 83 / 20 20 0 10 SFB 72 83 72 83 / 20 20 10 20 ORL 72 84 72 83 / 20 20 10 20 FPR 73 84 74 83 / 40 40 30 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.