textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

- Temperatures turn warmer late this week. Long stretches of dry weather are anticipated, but low shower chances remain in the forecast through Saturday.

- Our next cold front arrives Sunday with a 40 to 50% chance of showers and a few lightning storms.

- Behind the weakening front, drier weather returns but no significant cold temperatures are forecast through New Year's Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Currently...Dense fog has developed this morning across portions of Lake, Seminole, Orange, and Volusia counties. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for visibility reductions down to one quarter mile or less. If out driving, be sure to slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance between vehicles. Conditions are forecast to improve near to shortly after sunrise, with the Dense Fog Advisory ending at 8 AM.

Today-Tonight...Mid level ridging remains in place across the peninsula, with the associated broad area of high pressure situated near the Mid Atlantic region. Locally, this will result in light east-northeast winds today at the surface, helping to advect warm, moist air from the Atlantic across the peninsula. Light to isolated shower chances remain low across east central Florida for today, though CAM guidance continues to hint at development this afternoon. If any showers do develop, 700 mb winds out of the southwest will cause activity to move northeastward. By tonight, guidance is indicating that activity will increase across the local Atlantic waters, though some isolated showers cannot fully be ruled out along the coast. Lightning is not expected with activity.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist today as a result of higher moisture present across the area. Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to warm into the mid to upper 70s, with some areas near Lake Okeechobee potentially reaching 80 this afternoon. Cloud coverage will then build overnight, limiting the ability of temperatures to cool slightly. Lows are forecast to fall into the upper 50s across far northern Lake and Volusia counties, with areas southward only falling into the 60s.

Friday-Sunday...The aforementioned mid level ridging moves eastward Friday into Saturday, allowing for a series of shortwave troughs to quickly lift from the Ark-La-Tex region towards the Ohio Valley. At the surface, this will translate to the surface high being kicked eastward out across the Atlantic Friday and Saturday, leading to veering winds locally and increasing moisture across the peninsula that, when aided by the shortwave energy aloft, could lead to some isolated to scattered showers. The next best chance for rain and storms, however, is on Sunday, as troughing aloft sweeps across the eastern U.S., lifting a surface low northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex region towards the Mid Atlantic. The attendant cold front is forecast to push southeastward across the Florida peninsula, bringing increasing rain and storm chances to east central Florida. There continues to be some discrepancies between the longer range models about rain chances, so stuck with the NBM for Sunday rain chances (40 to 50 percent). A low chance (20 percent) for isolated thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out on Sunday with the frontal passage. Conditions are forecast to gradually improve into Sunday night as the front shifts southward, with the highest rain chances then confined to the local Atlantic waters.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the weekend, with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Monday-Wednesday...Behind the front, quasi-zonal flow sets up aloft, allowing for a weak area of high pressure to develop across the southeastern U.S. early next week into mid week. Conditions locally are forecast to remain mostly dry, with skies forecast to stay mostly clear as we head towards the new year. Some isolated showers across the local Atlantic waters cannot be ruled out entirely, though confidence remains low this far out. The cold front will do little to cool temperatures, with highs forecast to remain in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

MARINE

Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

High pressure north of the local Atlantic waters is forecast to remain in place into the weekend, slowly drifting eastward. Northeast winds today are forecast to veer onshore and increase to 10 to 20 knots on Friday, and will then shift southeastward on Saturday. Seas respond by building to 4 to 6 feet across the local waters, with poor boating conditions forecast especially across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local waters through Saturday. By Sunday, a cold front is forecast to push southeastward across the waters, with increasing rain and storm chances expected. Southerly winds 10 to 20 knots become light and variable at 5 to 10 knots behind the front into Monday, with seas falling to 2 to 4 feet by Monday. Generally good boating conditions are forecast early next week, though some isolated showers cannot be ruled out across the local waters through Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1252 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Low stratus clouds have developed and are building across the north tonight. Have included prevailing LIFR CIGs at SFB/LEE through 13Z with tempos for LIFR vis until 08Z. May need to amend the TEMPOs if low visibility continues. Otherwise, VFR conditions today. Northerly winds around 5 KT this morning will become east northeast by late morning with speeds generally below 10 KT. Winds will decrease to around 5 KT overnight with winds veering easterly from TIX southward overnight. Models are hinting at patchy fog/low stratus again late Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly from MCO northward. Have included MVFR CIGs at MCO starting at 06Z Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 61 75 63 / 20 30 30 10 MCO 77 62 78 63 / 20 20 30 10 MLB 76 65 77 65 / 20 30 40 20 VRB 78 66 78 66 / 20 30 40 20 LEE 75 60 79 62 / 10 10 20 10 SFB 76 61 78 63 / 10 20 30 10 ORL 77 62 78 63 / 20 20 30 10 FPR 78 66 78 65 / 20 30 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.