textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Much colder tonight with lows in the 30s and wind chill values in the mid 20s to low 30s. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect across most of east central Florida overnight and early Friday.

- Long duration of poor to hazardous boating conditions especially in the Gulf Stream.

- Low humidity will combine with gusty winds to produce very sensitive fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Thru Tonight...A strong cold front crossed central FL this afternoon. Gusty W/NW winds will advect much colder and drier air into the area allowing skies to clear and temperatures to fall quickly with sunset. The gustiness will subside shortly after sunset but a persistent 5-10 mph wind will produce wind chill values dipping into the mid and upper 20s for much of the area late tonight and early Fri. So the Cold Weather Advisory previously issued for all EC FL (except coastal Martin) looks solid. These conditions are not favorable for much frost but wind protected areas will have the potential for patchy frost. HREF probabilities for freezing temps are 40-50% across north Lake county mainly in the Ocala Natl Forest, and it is only right at sunrise so little duration is forecast. Bottom line is: spotty freezing temps can be expected in the normally colder locations north and west of Orlando.

Fri-Sun (modified)...A weak lobe of energy associated with another strengthening mid- level trough across the northeastern US will move towards the Florida peninsula Friday into Friday night, which will support a reinforcing cold front to cross east central Florida. Across the northeastern US, the area of low pressure associated with the mid- level trough is anticipated to shift eastward from the Great Lakes region towards New England on Friday and will then move offshore into Saturday. The cold front associated with this system will slowly drift southwards across the eastern US, passing many locations with little fanfare as it weakens. By Saturday night into Sunday, it is forecast to approach east central Florida, with the orientation of the front causing it to act more like a backdoor front as it moves from the northeast towards the southwest. By Sunday, ridging begins to build as high pressure strengthens across east central Florida.

On Fri, breezy west winds 15-20 mph will gust up to 25 mph then veer NW-N Sat behind the reinforcing frontal passage. Winds turn onshore (NE-E) Sun with decreasing wind speeds. Cooler air remains in place this weekend with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, except holding in the mid 60s along the Volusia coast. Cannot rule out some patchy frost Sunday morning across north interior sections but freezing temperatures are not forecast.

Mon-Thu...Benign weather conditions forecast as high pressure remain in control of our weather with dry conditions and warming temperatures. In fact, above normal temperatures are forecast midweek with max temps near 80F on Thu. The primary concern will be fire weather due to the persistent dryness but fortunately, winds will be light, remaining below 15 mph.

MARINE

Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Hazardous boating conditions have developed behind a strong cold front which will exit the local Atlc waters late this aftn. Small Craft Advisories are in effect across all the waters tonight for winds near 20 knots nearshore and near 25 knots offshore. Seas will build quickly to 7-10 FT offshore this evening into the overnight while seas will remain more suppressed closer to the coast due to the offshore flow. Pressure gradient temporarily relaxes Friday as deepening low pressure off the US east coast pulls rapidly away. So winds will drop below SCA criteria nearshore but only temporarily as another surge of NW winds arrives Fri eve and overnight which will require the SCA to be brought back into the nearshore waters. HREF shows a high prob (75%) of wind gusts 40mph+ over the offshore waters Fri night. Will handle this with "occasional gusts to Gale force" in the coastal waters forecast. Prob of sustained Gale force winds are virtually nonexistent.

Winds veer more northerly Sat with a gradual decrease in wind speeds but boating conditions will be remain hazardous esp offshore. The SCA will probably be allowed to expire Sat morning for the nearshore but at least a Caution will be needed there. Have extended the SCA for the offshore waters through Sat night as seas remain 7-8 FT due to N/NE wind flow directly opposing the Gulf Stream, keeping seas more developed. Further extension in time of the SCA for the offshore waters looks likely as a NE wind persists Sun. We finally lose the north wind component Sun night/Mon and seas in the Gulf Steam should finally fall below 6 FT. Orientation of the ridge axis should produce a light NW flow Tue with 2-3 FT seas nearshore and up to 5 FT offshore.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 611 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

The cold front has pushed well south of the area early this evening. Sky conditions have quickly improved with MClear skies expected, though may have to monitor for a few clouds scraping the coast near KDAB. Gusty WNW winds left behind the front will remain elevated this evening, but gradually improve thru the night. Winds may stay elevated a little longer along the Space & Treasure coasts. Continued VFR into Fri, though W/WNW winds will increase, once again, and expect breezy/gusty conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

On Friday, northwest winds will turn westerly in the afternoon with gusts near 25 mph. Min RH values will fall to 25 to 35 percent. This will produce a particularly sensitive fire weather day with near Red Flag conditions. On Saturday, the wind flow becomes northwest to north 10-15 mph except a little higher near the coast. The lowest RH values will be around 30 percent located over the interior, holding near 40 percent near the coast. Winds turn northeast Sunday and decrease 5-10 mph. Dispersion values are forecast to be Very Good to Excellent Friday and Very Good Saturday which may lead to fire control problems.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 34 62 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 38 62 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 36 63 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 35 64 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 35 62 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 35 63 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 38 62 49 66 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 35 64 44 68 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ570-572-575.