textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Breezy, cool, and dry conditions are forecast across east central Florida today as an area of high pressure strengthens across the southeastern US.

- At our beaches, a strong southward-flowing longshore current and a moderate risk of rip currents will be present. Hazardous boating conditions also persist through today. - Turning warmer this weekend. Low to medium rain chances anticipated early next week as moisture increases and a front approaches the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

This Morning...A chilly start to the morning across east central Florida, with morning lows generally in the 40s areawide. Breezy conditions early this morning will also cause wind chill values to fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s. If heading out for some early morning shopping, jackets are encouraged!

Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure will build across the southeastern US today, slowly drifting eastward. With the cold front remaining situated south of the Florida peninsula near Cuba, a tightening pressure gradient is anticipated across Florida today, which will lead to breezy conditions locally. Northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with occasional gusts to 30 mph will be possible, with the strongest winds focused along the coast and barrier islands. Aside from the breezy conditions, the weather is anticipated to remain relatively benign for today. Drier air filtering in from the north will keep conditions dry across east central Florida and will also keep skies mostly clear today into the overnight hours. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs in the 60s and lows tonight falling into the mid 40s to upper 50s.

The strong northerly winds will cause a longshore current to develop within the surf zone, which poses a risk to those entering the ocean. A longshore current can pull swimmers into deeper water and potentially rip currents. In addition to the longshore current, there is also a moderate risk of rip currents. If heading to the local east central Florida beaches, be sure to always swim near a lifeguard and heed the guidance of local beach safety officials.

Saturday-Sunday...The surface high continues drifting northeastward across the southeastern US into Saturday, moving offshore into the overnight hours as an area of low pressure moves eastward across the central US. Locally, dry conditions are anticipated to persist areawide through Saturday. Winds veer to out of the east, remaining around 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible, especially along the coast. Temperatures begin to warm slightly on Saturday, with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 70s and overnight lows generally falling into the mid 50s to mid 60s areawide.

By Sunday, the local pattern is forecast to begin a gradual transition. As the surface high shifts offshore late Saturday into early Sunday, an area of low pressure located across the central US will shift northeastward from the Midwest towards the Great Lakes, with its attendant cold front slowly moving across the southern US. Another area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the cold front near the Gulf and Texas, lifting a stalled boundary northward across the Florida peninsula. Locally, onshore flow is forecast to persist, resulting in a slow advection of moisture towards east central Florida. This may lead to some isolated shower development across the area, though confidence is low at this time. Conditions also noticeably warm into Sunday, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s and lows remain in the 60s.

Monday-Thursday...The cold front will slowly advance eastward towards the Florida peninsula early next week, with another low developing along the front on Tuesday and giving it the momentum needed to move towards the Florida peninsula. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible on Monday, with coverage increasing on Tuesday (30-55%) as the front moves southward across the area. There is low confidence in storm development at this time, so kept only a mention of showers across the peninsula and left isolated storms across the local Atlantic waters. Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to continue warming, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures remain steady in the 60s on Monday, cooling into the 50s on Tuesday behind the front. Towards the middle of next week, the cold front is forecast to move south of the area, with high pressure building across the area and drier air filtering in from the north behind the front. Mostly dry conditions are forecast from Wednesday into Thursday, with afternoon temperatures generally in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

MARINE

Issued at 225 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the local Atlantic waters due to a tight pressure gradient caused by a strong area of high pressure situated across the southeastern US. Northerly winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots are forecast today along with seas of 5 to 9 feet. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across all portions of the local Atlantic waters through this evening. Winds slowly subside this evening as the pressure gradient loosens slightly, resulting in seas also gradually subsiding. Winds become more onshore into Saturday as the high shifts directly north of the area, with seas remaining between 5 to 8 feet. The Small Craft Advisory continues across the Gulf Stream waters into Saturday.

Winds and seas subside below cautionary criteria late this weekend, with seas generally of 3 to 5 feet and winds 10 to 15 knots through Monday. The pattern begins to shift early next week with the approach of another cold front on Tuesday, with rain and storm chances gradually increasing Sunday through Tuesday across the local waters. The front is forecast to move across the local waters on Tuesday, with drier air settling across the area towards the middle of next week. Winds increase to 15 to 20 knots on Tuesday but subside once again into Wednesday. Seas are forecast to remain between 3 to 5 feet through the extended period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR and dry through the TAF period. Northerly winds around 9-12 kts early this morning with occasional gust 17-20 kts across the north interior. Otherwise, northerly gusts increasing 20-22 kts areawide by late morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast across portions of the interior today, especially across Lake and far western portions of Orange and Osceola counties. Dry air has settled across east central Florida, which will cause minimum RH values to fall below 35% across these areas. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient across the local area will cause northerly winds to reach 15 mph and greater at times. The only criteria not being met for a Red Flag Warning is the Significant Fire Potential forecast, which continues to remain at a low risk for today. Sensitive fire weather conditions across the interior as a whole will be possible with minimum RH values of 35-45%, with lower concern along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 52 71 60 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 64 52 73 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 67 57 73 64 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 69 58 74 64 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 61 46 73 57 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 63 50 73 59 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 63 51 72 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 70 58 75 64 / 0 10 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570.