textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Gradually increasing moisture into the weekend and early next week will allow rain chances to slowly return to near to above normal values.

- Highs in the low to mid 90s will continue, with peak heat indices reaching 102-107F each afternoon, and potentially nearing Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Currently-Tonight...While the 10Z sounding at the Cape showed PW values around 1.6 inches this morning, GOES-19 TPW imagery shows deeper moisture (PW around 2 inches) has been overspreading the area from the east with a weak inverted sfc trough. Deepest moisture has been concentrated across southern areas of east central Florida, with drier air still nudging its way in across Lake/Volusia counties. Therefore, greatest shower and storm coverage will continue to remain focused across the Treasure Coast, mostly inland through Okeechobee County and southern Osceola County. However, can't rule out isolated/scattered showers and a storm or two farther north through the Orlando metro area and the Cape this afternoon. Main storm threats from any isolated stronger storms will be gusty winds up to 40-45 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches. This activity will spread west of the area into the evening, but lingering onshore flow may still allow for isolated onshore moving showers/storms along the Treasure Coast tonight. Lows will continue to range from the mid to upper 70s for most locations.

Saturday-Sunday...Atlantic ridge axis currently north of the area, will shift south of the region into this weekend. This will lead to a developing offshore flow that will gradually strengthen into Sunday. Low level SW winds on Saturday will remain weak, allowing for the east coast sea breeze to shift inland during the afternoon, colliding with the west coast breeze across the interior. As offshore flow increases, the east coast sea breeze if it forms will likely stall near to east of the I-95 corridor focusing boundary collisions closer to the coast on Sunday. Moisture will continue to increase and with sea breeze collisions focused across east central Florida this will lead to a rise in shower and storm chances this weekend. PoPs increase to 30-50% for much of the area Saturday and up to 70% on Sunday. Deeper moisture (PW values > 2.0 inches) and weak steering flow will lead to an increased potential for locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches each day, which may result in mostly minor flooding. A Marginal Risk (5-14% chance) of excessive rainfall is in place across the area for Sunday when higher coverage of showers and storms are forecast. Strong wind gusts and frequent lightning will also be possible with any stronger convection.

Hot and humid conditions continue this weekend, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Current forecast has peak heat index values around 102-107F for much of the area, but the added moisture may push heat index values a little higher to 108-110F, which may require a Heat Advisory for potions of the region. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk, with localized Extreme HeatRisk conditions will continue to impact those without adequate cooling and hydration. Lows continue in the 70s.

Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Weak high pressure ridging influence continues thru this period, though the axis remains south of central FL. A weak frontal boundary is forecast to drift south toward north FL near/past mid-week. Overall moisture remains fairly high thru the period surging northward mid-week along aforementioned front. Overall flow offshore forecast, with late day boundary collisions focused across the eastern FL peninsula at least Mon and will see if the flow is too strong for the ECSB to even form Tue-Thu, though this remains far enough out with lower confidence just yet. Near to above normal rain chances is forecast to continue with scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Highs continue in the L-M90s with peak heat indices continuing to average 102-107F each afternoon ahead of sea breeze/storms. Will continue to monitor for the need of any Heat Advisories, as portions of ECFL could still see heat index values reach around 108-110F.

MARINE

Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Through Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge axis slides south of the area this weekend and remains to the south of the waters through the middle of next week. This will allow for winds to become offshore (W/SW) for the next several days, but for at least Saturday will still become E/SE into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and moves inland. Increasing moisture will lead to higher coverage of showers and storms, with the potential for offshore moving stronger storms in the afternoon/evening, especially from Sunday through Wednesday. Outside of storms, boating conditions are forecast to remain mostly favorable as winds speeds generally remain below 15 knots and seas range from 1-3 feet (potentially up to 4 feet well offshore into the middle of next week).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Continued below normal storm chances this afternoon. Low (20-40%) coverage of a few showers/storms esp Treasure Coast terminals, otherwise most areas dry with east-northeast breezes 5-12 kt and primarily VFR. Saturday afternoon offers slightly higher chances (40-50%) for showers and storms for MCO in the late afternoon timeframe.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 94 77 92 / 0 40 30 70 MCO 76 96 78 94 / 10 40 40 70 MLB 77 91 77 92 / 10 30 20 70 VRB 76 92 75 93 / 10 40 10 70 LEE 77 96 79 93 / 0 50 30 70 SFB 76 96 78 94 / 10 30 40 70 ORL 77 96 79 93 / 10 40 40 70 FPR 76 91 75 92 / 10 40 10 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.