textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 227 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- High coverage of rain and lightning storms are expected each day through early next week. While this rainfall will be beneficial to drought conditions, multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall over the same areas could lead to increasing flooding concerns.

- Coverage of showers and storms will be highest near the coast, as west to northwest flow opposes the east coast sea breeze.

- Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures through early next week before temperatures become slightly below normal by mid next week as a weak front stalls across central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Current-Tonight...Seasonably warm & humid with max temps well into the U80s to L90s areawide. Peak afternoon heat indices (ahead of sea breeze & precip) will approach the U90s-L100s. The east coast sea breeze will move inland with majority of boundary collisions across the central and eastern FL peninsula. Deep moisture remains in place. Storm steering is out of the WNW/NW which will push storms back to the coast late today and evening. Thus, PoPs range from 50- 70%. Storm threats remain frequent lightning strikes, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Widespread rainfall accumulations of 1.5- 2.5" are expected, with isolated totals of 3+" possible. Localized flooding concerns may develop in areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Convection diminishes and pushes off the coast mid- late evening, but will monitor for ISOLD convection pushes in overnight from the west into Lake, Orange, and Osceola counties. Humid conditions overnight with mins in the L-M70s.

Sat-Sun...A weak surface front will approach the Deep South and become quasi-stationary. Surface high pressure ridging will remain south/east of the area, thus, allowing for an offshore wind component. The "opposing" low-level flow may keep the east coast sea breeze from developing on Sat (or pinned at the coast), but flow weakens on Sun with the sea breeze likely to develop but inland progression will be slow. Abundant moisture will surge across the area thru the weekend. Temps at 500mb relatively warm at -5.5C to -7.0C and occasional shortwave impulses will traverse central FL embedded in the N/WNW flow aloft. Afternoon heating will combine with everything above to promote SCT-NMRS (30-70%) shower/storm chances Sat (highest Volusia County, lowest Martin County); and NMRS- WDSP (70-80%) areawide for Sun. The primary storm concern continues to be locally heavy rainfall producing a quick 1-3" and esp where locations receive multiple rounds we could see locally higher amounts. Minor/nuisance flooding possible. Occasional to frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds locally 35-45 mph will also be in play. Storm steering remains WRLY with activity piling up across the eastern peninsula late day/evening.

Seasonably warm and muggy conditions are forecast, with afternoon highs in the U80s-L90s. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices in the M-U90s to L100s (locally). Warm conditions overnight, with mins in the L-M70s.

Mon-Thu...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified. A large mid/upper level trough will move offshore of the northeast U.S. into mid-week. A weak front shifts southward through the southern U.S. and is forecast to become quasi-stationary, at times, across the central FL peninsula into early-mid-week. Some uncertainty remains due to model disagreements regarding placement of this feature and how far south the front will venture. Regardless, deep moisture will remain in place into at least Tue (southward). Thus, a rather high coverage of showers and storms (40-70 percent) are forecast each day, especially in the afternoon and early evening. Higher coverage and locally heavy rainfall will focus near the boundary. However, widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2+" are expected. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat, which may exacerbate any ongoing flooding concerns. Drier conditions are forecast Thu. Temps will be seasonable early in the week, becoming slightly below normal into mid-week as the aforementioned front reaches the area.

MARINE

Issued at 227 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Thru Next Tue...Generally favorable boating conditions through the period. High pressure remains south of the local waters thru the weekend, maintaining offshore flow generally 15 kts or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form near the coast this afternoon and again on Sun, but may have trouble on Sat due to stronger "opposing/offshore" low-level flow. High coverage of showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop near the coast each afternoon and early evening, with steering flow pushing convection off the coast during the late day and evening hours. Seas 1-3 ft through the weekend before building to 3-5ft on Mon thru Tue, then potentially 6 ft offshore Tue overnight continuing to 7 ft during the day on Wed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 734 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Main convective concern early tonight is a cluster of TS extending from near KLEE-KDAB, moving SE-ESE towards KSFB. Best guess is this cluster will continue through around 03Z then dissipate, but not enough confidence for TEMPOs at any of those three terminals at this time. There is a very low chance this activity could reach KMCO/KISM. Additional clusters of TS over the interior should remain west/south of the remaining ECFL terminals, but some debris -SHRA could blow back to the coast. Passing -SHRA possible overnight into Saturday morning. Westerly flow Saturday will be slightly stronger, up to around 10 kts, which combined with slightly weak sea breezes, could keep the east coast sea breeze pinned near the coast. Guidance has been favoring an early start to quick moving SHRA/TSRA that clear inland terminals around 22Z, and the coastal terminals shortly after.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 88 74 87 / 50 70 20 80 MCO 74 88 74 89 / 60 50 20 80 MLB 76 89 76 88 / 40 50 20 80 VRB 75 90 75 89 / 40 40 20 80 LEE 75 88 75 89 / 40 50 20 70 SFB 74 90 75 90 / 60 50 10 80 ORL 75 88 76 89 / 60 50 10 80 FPR 74 89 74 88 / 40 40 20 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.