textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 251 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Heat Advisory in effect for for Martin and Okeechobee counties today from 11am to 4pm for heat index values up to 110F degrees; Remember to practice heat safety!

- Hot and humid conditions continue the next several days. Peak heat index values of 102-107F forecast today for most of east central Florida with the potential to reach Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area this week

- Drier air aloft moving into the region will lead to decreasing rain chances, falling to 30-40% today with below normal coverage of showers and storms then forecast each day this week. Isolated strong storms will still be possible each day

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry conditions across east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate mostly clear skies. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the mid 70s to low 80s. Winds are generally light and variable. Analysis charts show a 594dm 500 mb ridge over Florida and the Deep South.

The 500mb ridge is expected to reach 597dm over the state of Florida today which is at the maximum percentile for this time of year. Isolated to scattered showers (20-40% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous showers/lightning storms. Rain rain chances are expected to diminish by around 8PM. Hi-res guidance shows MLCAPE up to 1,500-4,000 J/kg, 0-6km up to 10-25kts, PWATs between 1.90-2.30", and conditionally unstable mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, the potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 30-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"). Temperatures will increase with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index values up to 102-107F degrees for most of east central Florida today. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee and Martin counties from 11AM to 8PM for heat index values up to 108-110F degrees. Remember to take frequent breaks from the heat, drink plenty of fluids, wear light colored clothing, and shift outdoor work away from the hottest parts of the day between the hours of 11am to 4pm. Near to above normal lows in low 70s to near 80F degrees are forecast overnight.

Tuesday-Thursday... The mid/upper level ridge is expected to shift west across the Deep South through mid to late week as a longwave trough deepens over the western Atlantic. Drier conditions are expected with drying in the mid levels as another plume of Saharan Dry layer advects over the state of Florida mid to late week. One thing to watch will be air quality as this occurs with the CAMS indicating an Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) value of 0.6-1.25 (Very High to Extreme haze) on Tuesday over the Orlando Metro. However, those values appears high when compared to the GEOS model, but it's something to keep in mind. Isolated to widely scattered showers (20- 30% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and collides with a weak west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous showers/lightning storms. A similar forecast is expected Wednesday and Thursday with slightly higher rain chances (20-40% chance Wednesday and 20-30% chance Thursday) as moisture increases in the mid levels. Guidance shows instability coupled with weak shear, conditionally to absolutely unstable mid level lapse rates, and PWATs between 1.80-2.20" which is sufficient for isolated storms capable of occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 30-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"+). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index values near heat advisory criteria (heat index values up to around 108F degrees) are forecast each day through at least Friday.

Friday-Sunday... A longwave ridge is expected to build over the eastern CONUS Friday and into the weekend. Deterministic guidance and Ensembles are in good agreement that 500mb heights will reach 597dm (maximum percentile for this time of year) over the southern US and the state of Florida. Thus, the heat is expected to continue with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90s each day and lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. At least a Moderate to Major HeatRisk is expected each day with portions of Lake county in an Extreme HeatRisk. Isolated to scattered showers (20-40% chance) and lightning storms are forecast through Saturday with mostly dry conditions on Sunday. West-southwest winds are forecast to back onshore each afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected with a mid/upper level ridge over the state of Florida. Isolated generally onshore showers and lightning storms are forecast in the late morning and into the afternoon. East-southeast winds at 5-10kts are forecast. Seas to 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore (20-60nm) expected.

Tuesday-Friday (modified previous discussion)... Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue through at least mid week. Atlantic ridge north of the area will start a slow southward progression and will move across the local Atlc waters early this week and then reach south FL midweek. SE winds will become S/SW Tue and W/SW by Wed-Thu. However, the offshore flow will remain weak enough for the east coast sea breeze to still form each afternoon with winds becoming onshore (SE) near the coast at 10-15 knots. Seas to 1-2 feet are forecast this week. Shower and lightning storm chances will be below normal this week with coverage at 30% or less.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 618 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will become south to southeast and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning. CAM guidance continues to show varying solutions for convective initiation and evolution today, but overall trends favor isolated to scattered showers and storms forming along the coast on the east coast sea breeze before moving inland into the afternoon and evening. Have added VCSH starting at 12Z from VRB southward for onshore moving showers, and have maintained VCSH/VCTS along the coast starting at 15-16Z, and VCTS across the interior starting at 19Z. Have continued PROB30 groups for MVFR conditions in TSRA in the interior sites, starting at 22Z for MCO, ISM, and SFB, and starting at 23Z at LEE. Confidence remains too low to include any PROB30 or TEMPO grounds for coastal sites at this time. Convection will diminish into the evening with mostly dry conditions overnight. Winds will become light and variable once again tonight before shifting south to southwest at around 5 KT by mid morning Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 75 94 76 / 30 10 20 10 MCO 94 76 96 77 / 20 10 20 10 MLB 90 76 92 76 / 20 10 20 10 VRB 91 76 92 75 / 20 0 20 10 LEE 93 77 95 77 / 30 20 20 10 SFB 94 76 95 77 / 20 10 20 10 ORL 94 76 95 77 / 20 10 20 10 FPR 91 76 92 75 / 20 0 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-164-264.

AM...None.