textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Winds will increase behind a mostly dry cool front sagging through Central Florida, with gusts up to 35 mph across portions of East Central Florida today, and to around 30 mph for most of the area Friday.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will develop today and persist into at least Friday. Rip Current Statements, High Surf Advisories, Coastal Flood Advisories, and Small Craft Advisories have been issued. Residents and visitors should stay out of this life-threatening surf.

- The early arrival of the front and subsequent drier air has knocked down today's rain chances a bit, but scattered onshore moving showers and maybe a lightning storm remain possible today into Friday. Banding of heavy showers could produce localized flooding.

- A taste of fall is in store the rest of the week and into early next week, as drier and somewhat cooler conditions gradually filter down the peninsula.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Today-Friday...A stacked low pressure system over the eastern seaboard and northwestern Atlantic waters will push a weak front and drier/cooler air into Central Florida. The front has already entered East Central Florida early this morning, and the drier air is expected to overspread the northern half of the area by the afternoon, and the rest of the area by the evening. Very dry air above 700mb is now expected to arrive earlier than previously forecast, and today's rain chances across most of the area have come down a bit since the last couple packages. This mid-upper level environment plus the general lack of instability will also be a serious hurdle for deep convection and lightning storms. However, convection will be moving to the south at a quick clip, and even modest showers could produce wind gusts 40-50 mph. Storms that manage to develop will mainly be capable of occasional lightning. While individual cells will keep moving along, bands of rainfall have organized early this morning, and there is a very low (less than 5% chance) for one of these bands to produce +4" of rainfall in Volusia, northern Brevard, and adjacent portions of nearby counties, producing flooding in low-lying or poor drainage areas.

The main impact the next couple days will be winds and their effects on coastal/marine areas, as the pressure gradient tightens across Florida between the aforementioned low pressure system over the eastern seaboard, the front, and high pressure over the eastern US. Northerly winds today are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph sustained with gusts up to 30 mph north of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Strongest winds will be from coastal Volusia into the northern Brevard barrier islands, which will be very close to Wind Advisory criteria, where sustained winds 20-25 mph and gust to 35 mph are forecast, and may occasionally push higher. Inland winds ease to around 10 mph with occasionally higher gusts tonight, but over much of the Atlantic waters will continue to push over 20 mph gusting to 35 mph, which the barrier islands may continue to feel. Inland winds pick back up to around 15 mph, closer to 20 mph along the northern coast, with gusts 25-30 mph. These persistent, strong northerly winds will cause beach and marine conditions to quickly deteriorate today and remain dangerous through at least Friday, from life-threatening rip currents, large breaking waves and rough surf, a strong southward flowing longshore current, minor coastal flooding along the Volusia coast and intracoastal waters, and hazardous winds and seas in the Atlantic waters. Residents and visitors should stay out of the surf.

A little bit of cooling is expected behind the front, but what will be most noticeable is the drier air and morning/evening temperatures. Lows are forecast to dip into the 60s for the first time since June (see climate section below for dates) Friday night into Saturday morning. Afternoon highs will range from below normal up north to near normal down south, all in the 80s.

Saturday-Monday...A generally pleasant weekend temperature and humidity-wise is on tap, especially in the mornings and evenings, but beach and marine conditions will remain poor to hazardous. The low pressure system over the eastern seaboard will lift closer to the New England coast and become cutoff (nearly stationary), but far enough away from Florida for the pressure gradient to loosen as a weakening surface high drops into the Southeast, and the Bermuda high ridge axis begins to reach back towards the Caribbean. Northerly winds could still pick up to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph Saturday, mainly along the coast, then become light while veering onshore through the rest of the period. While winds are forecast to diminish, beach and marine hazards could linger on. Residents and visitors should be extra attentive to the forecast, as the surf may look more inviting during the weekend but hazards could still be present.

Morning lows will continue to be cool and dry in the 60s, and afternoon highs warm and dry in the 80s. Can't completely rule out some onshore moving showers (chances 20% or less), but otherwise dry conditions are forecast.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Model solutions begin to diverge in the extended term, but this doesn't become a significant issue for our local forecast until the later part of next week. All the global models vary slightly in timing and location of a mid-upper level trough and associated surface low swinging across the CONUS, bringing the attendant surface front towards Florida mid to late next week. Prior to that, Florida remains under the influence of persistent troughing over the eastern seaboard and surface high pressure in the western Atlantic. There is some disagreement in the exact location of the surface ridge axis, but fairly confident low level flow will remain onshore, just a question of whether it will be more easterly or southerly. There is less certainty how much moisture will recover, with a fair spread between PWATs ticking up to near to below normal or surging back to above normal, decreasing confidence in forecast rain chances and heat impacts. As a result, official forecast calls for broadly increasing rain chances from near/below normal Tuesday, becoming near/above normal Wednesday, with the return of lightning storm chances. Temperatures tick up a few degrees becoming seasonably warm again in the M-U80s, but the additional moisture causing heat indices to jump back into the 90s.

MARINE

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Today-Friday...Boating conditions will quickly deteriorate from north to south behind a mostly dry cool front pushing through Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters, causing northerly winds to surge to 15-25 kts, up to 30 kts in the Volusia waters. Seas respond by building from 2-4 ft across the waters early this morning to 6-9 ft north of the Cape and 4-6 ft to the south by the evening, and further increasing to 9-12 ft and 6-10 ft by Friday morning, with the highest seas offshore in the Gulf Stream. Northerly winds begin to back off Friday night to 15-20 kts as the front settles south of the area, but seas remain elevated. Scattered to numerous fast moving showers this morning and afternoon will gradually decrease in coverage through Friday as drier air filters in.

Saturday-Monday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions, mainly due to seas, will linger through the weekend as the front settles south of the area, weakening high pressure moves into the Southeast, and the Bermuda high ridge axis begin to build back towards the Caribbean. Northerly winds settle to 10-15 kts Saturday, occasionally pushing to 15-20 kts, then ease to 5-10 kts Sunday, veering easterly Monday. Seas will be very slow to subside from 6-8 ft Saturday morning, to 4-6 ft Sunday morning, and 3-5 ft Monday morning. Mostly dry conditions forecast, but a few showers may pop up in the Treasure Coast waters.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 658 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Scattered showers are ongoing, mainly along the coast. Stratus has moved in, with ceilings generally around SCT/BKN015 as a surface front moves southward across east central Florida. North to northeast winds generally 5-10 KT this morning will increase to 15-20 KT with gusts 25-30 KT by this afternoon at most terminals. Rounds of isolated to scattered showers are forecast to generally persist along the coast through much of the TAF period, with some activity occasionally reaching as far inland as SFB/MCO/ISM. Have included MVFR TEMPO/PROB30 for 5SM SHRA BKN030 for DAB, TIX, MLB, MCO and SFB for this afternoon. North to northeast winds will decrease to around 12 KT overnight, but will remain breezy and gusty along the coast with gusts to around 20 KT. Have VCSH ending around 02Z across the interior, and around 05Z along the coast with winds decreasing to 10-12 KT.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The St Johns River at Astor is in Action Stage, and is forecast to rise into Minor Flood Stage this evening as northerly winds slow or even reverse streamflow. The river is forecast to remain in at least Minor Flood Stage through at least the weekend.

CLIMATE

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Last date the temperature was below 70 degrees (F) this year at select sites:

DAB: June 8th (67 deg) LEE: June 8th (68 deg) SFB: June 8th (67 deg) MCO: June 8th (69 deg) MLB: June 8th (68 deg) VRB: June 11th (69 deg) FPR: June 11th (69 deg)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 85 73 82 68 / 60 30 20 0 MCO 87 72 85 67 / 30 10 10 10 MLB 87 75 85 71 / 40 30 30 20 VRB 88 75 86 72 / 40 30 30 20 LEE 88 70 85 65 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 86 72 83 66 / 40 20 10 0 ORL 87 72 84 67 / 30 10 10 0 FPR 87 74 86 71 / 40 30 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ555-575.