textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Dry conditions forecast through mid to late week. Cool today, then warming Thursday-Saturday.

- Another front late this week or early next week brings the next chances of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Today-Tonight...A cold front continues to push south through ECFL early this morning. Any convective activity associated has long since ended, but we will likely see low stratus clouds overspread much of the coverage warning area this morning. This low "grunge" may be around for much of the morning, with gradual improvement in cloud ceilings in the afternoon. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out either. High pressure will build into the southeast U.S. behind the front later today and tonight. The pressure gradient will remain weak with NW/N winds 5-10 mph expected. Later in the afternoon and early evening, wind direction may veer a bit more NNE along the coast. A light northerly component of wind will continue tonight. Conditions remain mainly dry. Highs cooler today with L70s north/west of I-4, and M-U70s southward - possibly around 80F across Martin and southern St. Lucie counties. Much cooler tonight with forecast mins in the U40s to around 50F north/west of I-4 with L-M 50s most everywhere else, except U50s to L60s immediate Space/Treasure coasts.

Thu-Fri...Surface high pressure weakens, though conditions remain dry thru the period. Winds veer NE/ENE 5-10 mph, but we may see a degree of variability for surface winds across the ECFL interior on Thu. Light winds Thu night, then light southerly winds developing into Fri. The next potential low pressure system will develop across the western Gulf with low pressure tracking across the northern Gulf late Thu/Fri. This should drag the next front into the FL Panhandle by sunrise Sat morning as increasing moisture pools ahead of and along this next system.

Gradual warming trend Thu/Fri with maxes in the L-M70s across the I- 4 corridor and M-U70s southward - perhaps some 80 degree readings near Lake Okee. Near 80F to L80s prevail Fri and perhaps a few M80s surrounding Lake Okee. For mins, slightly warmer Thu night/Fri morning with M-U50s most everywhere, except L60s closer towards the coast - M60s for barrier islands. Generally L-M 60s areawide Fri overnight/Sat morning.

Sat-Tue...The next front remains north of ECFL thru Sat, but does make some gradual movement southward Sat night towards the central FL peninsula. Moisture (PWATs 1.75-2.00") will continue to pool along and out ahead of the boundary. Both the GFS/ECMWF seemingly bring the boundary thru the area on Sun and into the southern peninsula Sun night into early Mon. We keep SCT (30-50%) showers in the forecast near Orlando northward during the day on Sat and Vero Beach northward Sat night (ISOLD, 10-24%, elsewhere). This system is slow to sag thru the area and we have PoPs 50% areawide on Sun and 25-40% Sun night. There will also be an ISOLD threat of thunder this weekend. Moisture is a bit slow to scour out southward on Mon and a 15-30pct shower chance will be possible south of Orlando for this day. High pressure gradually settles in behind this latest weather system with mainly dry conditions areawide Mon night-Tue night.

Highs remain above normal in the U70s/L80s (few M80s southward) for Sat (pre-frontal). Maxes in the 70s Melbourne northward on Sun with near 80F to L80s southward. Cooler yet on Mon/Tue (post-frontal) in the U60s to around 70F across I-4 with L70s southward - possible M70s for Martin County. Lows in the 60s areawide Sat night/Sun morning, and generally 50s to L60s for Sun night/Mon morning. A reinforcing "Clipper" front will push down the area late on Mon driving overnight mins for Mon night/Tue morning into the M-U40s to around 50F for much of the interior and Volusia coast with L-M 50s southward along the Space/Treasure coasts, except U50s for coastal Martin County.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Today-Tonight...Developing post-frontal conditions as high pressure builds in from the NW, with relaxing pressure gradient, and NW/N winds 7-11 kts. Seas subsiding to 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft offshore thru the period. Conditions mainly dry.

Thu-Sun...A developing long period ERLY swell ~10 seconds. Winds and seas become favorable from mid-late week as northerly (~ 10 kts) winds early on Thu begin to veer more onshore through the day and becoming southerly thru Fri and S/SW Fri night/Sat and more WRLY during the day on Sun ahead of an approaching front. The pgrad may tighten a bit Fri night into the weekend with 15 kt speeds well offshore. Seas 2-3 ft very near shore Thu-Sat, but may increase to 5 ft well offshore Cape northward Sat overnight/Sun - possibly to 6 ft offshore Sun night. Generally dry thru Fri night, but SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms may enter the picture again Sat-Sun as moisture increases with approaching front.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

CIGs are forecast to drop to MVFR/IFR areawide early this morning, with observations at LEE and DAB already supporting this. Stratus will build southward, with TEMPOs in effect from 08-12Z for the lower CIGs. VFR conditions are forecast to return late this morning, with prevailing NNW winds 5 to 10 knots through the day. Dry conditions are anticipated through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 52 72 59 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 75 55 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 75 58 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 77 57 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 72 50 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 73 52 75 59 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 73 54 76 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 78 57 78 61 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.