textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms ongoing this afternoon and is forecast to continue into the evening. Main storm hazards are frequent lightning, gusty winds up to 50 mph, small hail, and brief heavy downpours possible.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast through the rest of the week and into this weekend, with a weak boundary bringing increasing moisture into early next week. Rain and storm chances increase as a result Monday onward.

- Hot and muggy conditions persist areawide with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast each day through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level ridging across the southern US and the Florida peninsula will remain in place today as another trough begins to push into the northwest US. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will remain in place with the axis extending over Florida into the Gulf. Locally, winds will be light and southerly today as the ridge axis is draped across central Florida. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon and gradually push inland, turning the winds southeasterly behind the boundary. Plenty of moisture lingering over the area, with forecast PW values of 1.8-2.0" this afternoon, which will support rain and storm chances once again today. There is a low to medium (20-60 percent) chance of rain this afternoon and evening. Shower and storm coverage will initiate along the east coast sea breeze early this afternoon, with coverage increasing into mid afternoon as the sea breeze progresses inland, colliding with the west coast sea breeze across the interior. The highest coverage of storms will be across the interior, with model guidance indicating the I-4 corridor northward being the highest coverage this afternoon, with activity gradually pushing back towards the east coast and offshore through the evening hours.

Some storms may be strong, which is supported by the environment, with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1600-2500 J/kg), cooler temperatures aloft (-7 to -8C at 500 mb), sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 600-1000 J/kg) and modest low-level lapse rates also supporting storm growth. Main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 55 mph, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. Any lingering activity will push offshore or dissipate before midnight, leaving mostly dry conditions across east central Florida through the overnight hours. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible across the offshore waters tonight.

Another hot and humid day is in store of east central Florida. Minimal cloud cover will allow afternoon high temperatures to reach in the low to mid 90s. These temperatures combined with high humidity, will produce peak heat indices of 100-105F and a Moderate HeatRisk. Warm and muggy conditions will continue tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Sunday... Upper level high pressure stretching from Texas to the Gulf to Florida will remain in place through this weekend. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to stretch across the Florida peninsula, with the ridge axis remaining draped across central Florida. Locally, this will promote light southerly winds to persist. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon and push inland, with winds turning southeasterly behind the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to form each day along the sea breeze as it pushes inland, with activity increasing during the afternoon hours across the interior along the sea breeze collision. There is a medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain and storms on Saturday, and a slightly lower chance, low to medium (20-50 percent), on Sunday as model discrepancies continue with how much dry air will be present across the Florida peninsula on Sunday. Much like the previous shift, have leaned closer to NBM guidance with PoPs for Sunday as a middle ground at this time. The environment will support these rain chances, with plenty of instability ( 1700-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE ), cooler temperatures aloft ( -7 to -8C at 500 mb), and decent downdraft potential (DCAPE of 700-1000 J/kg). The main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall with a low chance for localized flooding where storms move slowest.

Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. The warmest afternoon temperatures are forecast across the Orlando metro and areas northward each day. These temperatures combined with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-107F each day. Additionally, widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across east central Florida, meaning most individuals will be more susceptible to developing heat-related illness if not practicing heat safety Warm and muggy conditions are forecast overnight, with forecast lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Thursday... Upper level ridge across the southeastern US will remain in place with a trough moving southward along the eastern flank of the ridge early next week. At the surface, a low pressure system will form off the coast of the Carolinas, with the low dragging a weak boundary southward towards the Florida peninsula. Model guidance continues to keep this quasi-stationary boundary just north of central Florida through most of the period, drifting southward late into the week. Locally, this will cause moisture to increase across the area, with forecast PW values around 1.7-2.2". This increase in moisture will support greater rain and storm chances areawide through next week. There is a medium to high (40-70 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms most afternoons.

Hot and humid conditions are forecast to persist through next week, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. These temperatures combined with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100- 107F, with a a 10-25% chance of nearing Heat Advisory criteria in some spots on Monday and Tuesday. Lower confidence in this for now, but will continue to monitor closely. Regardless of whether Heat Advisory thresholds are met, widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across east central Florida through next week. Warm and muggy conditions will persist each night, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Today- Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through the remainder of this week and into next week. Broad high pressure will remain in place across the waters through this weekend, resulting in light southerly winds around 10 knots that become more southeasterly in the afternoons around 10 to 15 knots as the east coast sea breeze develops. Seas are anticipated to remain generally between 1 to 3 feet. Isolated to scattered offshore-moving showers and storms will be possible each afternoon and evening through Sunday, with storms capable of producing cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts exceeding 30 knots, small hail, and heavy downpours. Rain and storms chances increase next week thanks to greater moisture brought by a weak boundary drifting southward across the local waters. Most activity will diminish into the overnight hours each day, though some isolated showers and storms across the Gulf Stream will be possible.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 151 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Scattered convection developed in vicinity of I-95 early this afternoon with VCTS mentioned at coastal terminals at the top of the 18Z TAF. VCTS introduced across most interior sites after 19Z as convection spreads westward and increases in coverage. Highest confidence in afternoon TSRA impacts resides at SFB/MCO/ISM/TIX where TEMPOs are included for VIS/CIG reductions within thunderstorms. South-southwest winds shift southeast around 8-10 kts as the sea breeze continues to progress inland this afternoon. Late afternoon convection across the interior generally diminishes after sunset, but VCSH remains mentioned at DAB/SFB where showers may linger into the evening. Light south winds overnight become light and variable at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 92 76 93 / 30 40 20 20 MCO 77 94 76 95 / 40 60 30 30 MLB 78 90 77 90 / 10 30 10 20 VRB 77 91 77 91 / 10 30 10 20 LEE 77 94 77 94 / 40 50 20 20 SFB 76 95 77 95 / 40 60 20 30 ORL 77 93 77 94 / 40 60 30 30 FPR 77 90 76 91 / 20 30 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.