textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Drier air will lead to lower than normal shower and storm chances through through at least Thursday. Increasing moisture into late week and through the weekend will then allow rain chances to return to near normal values.

- Near to above-normal afternoon temperatures will persist through the period with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each day. Practicing heat safety will be key to avoid heat-related illness!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Today-Thursday... Upper level ridging across the Plains and the Deep South will stay in place through the time period. At the surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will strengthen and continue to build across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf, with the ridge axis lifting northward. This will allow Tropical Storm (TS) Bertha to move westward along to just south of the northern Gulf Coast through midweek. Locally, winds will weaken as the ridge axis moves northward and the winds gradually become more onshore, with S/SE winds today and E/SE winds on Thursday. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each day and move inland, which will turn the winds more onshore behind the sea breeze.

Drier air will settle over the area, with forecast PW values ranging from 1.5-1.7", which will result in reduced rain chances through the period. Lower than normal rain chances are forecast, with a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms today and a low (20 percent) chance on Thursday. Highest coverage of storms today will be around the Lake Okeechobee area during the afternoon, and then focused west of Orlando with the sea breeze collision near to after sunset. Due to the more dominate onshore flow on Thursday, highest coverage will be across the western interior in the afternoon/early evening. Some storms may be strong. Forecast soundings support this with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg), drier air aloft, Steep low-level lapse rates, and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-1200 J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds to 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will be near to above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s, with more widespread mid 90s across the interior, each afternoon. Due to the drier air aloft, dewpoints should be lower as mixing increases into the afternoon. This will allow peak heat indices to reach 100-107F, which remains below Heat Advisory criteria. Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight, with lows generally in the mid to upper 70s each night.

Friday-Monday... Upper level high pressure over the Plains and the Deep South will remain in place as a trough over the Midwest shifts eastward towards the Atlantic coast and digs southward towards the FLorida into the weekend and early next week. At the surface, the Atlantic high pressure will shift southward through the weekend as a low pressure system pushes off the coast of the Carolinas. An associated frontal boundary will dig through the Deep South into late week and into northern Florida before stalling over the weekend. The front will then drift slowly southward into early next week as it weakens. There remains some uncertainty with how far south this boundary will go before it stalls. Locally, lingering dry air across the north on Friday will keep rain chances limited, with moisture increasing across the south, causing a return of near to above normal rain chances. Moisture will continue to increase across the area this weekend, with shower and lightning storm activity primarily being driven by sea breeze interactions/collisions. Offshore (westerly) flow will also return this weekend and continue into the next week, which will favor higher coverage of storms across the eastern side of the peninsula near the coast. Monday, rain and storm chances will be near to normal areawide as deep moisture from the decaying boundary reaches the local area, with near to above normal rain and storm chances on Tuesday as lingering moisture is aided by normal sea breeze interactions/collisions. Any lingering showers and storms will diminish each evening through the overnight hours. However, isolated to scattered showers will remain possible across the Atlantic waters each night.

A slight warming trend is forecast through the weekend, with above normal temperatures forecast through Sunday. Current guidance indicates that increasing cloud coverage and rain chances will help keep temperatures closer to normal Monday and Tuesday. Peak heat indices will generally be 100-107F, with some locations potentially nearing Heat Advisory criteria, especially over the weekend. Confidence in this remains low however, so will continue to monitor. Lows will generally be in the 70s each night.

MARINE

Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Today-Sunday... TS Bertha is forecast to continue to move westward near to just south of the northern Gulf coast through midweek. South to southeast winds will persist through Thursday, with speeds of 10- 15 KT each day, although winds may increase to near 20 KT in the nearshore Volusia waters this afternoon/evening. The pressure gradient will then loosen into the late week/weekend as the Atlantic high pressure extends back across the region through late week and then shifts southward into the weekend, resulting in wind speeds generally around 10 KT. Winds will shift east to southeast on Friday, southerly on Saturday, and west to southwest on Sunday. However the east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each day, turning the winds E/SE each afternoon. Seas 1-3ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms each day through late week, with moisture increasing Friday into the weekend, resulting in a gradual rise in rain and storm chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 119 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conds outside of lower than normal diurnal convective chances on Wed. Light southerly winds "back" SE/ESE and increase 8-13 kts with sea breeze formation and march inland with some higher aftn gusts. VCSH aft 21Z/22Z for inland terminals with VCTS possible if confidence increases. Will consider "Vicinity" wording for Treasure Coast terminals near early/mid aftn a little later.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 76 92 76 / 10 0 10 0 MCO 96 77 97 76 / 20 10 20 0 MLB 91 77 90 77 / 20 0 10 0 VRB 91 76 91 77 / 20 0 10 10 LEE 95 78 95 77 / 20 30 20 0 SFB 95 77 95 77 / 20 0 10 0 ORL 95 77 95 77 / 20 10 10 0 FPR 91 75 91 77 / 30 0 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.