textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- A cold front will pass through the area today, beginning several days of medium to high rain chances with embedded lightning storms.

- Breezy southwesterly winds 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph, outside of convection late this morning and into this evening.

- Above normal temperatures persist through today, with values near record highs along the Treasure Coast.

- Deteriorating beach and boating conditions forecast into this weekend, as increasing winds cause seas to build and a High Risk for rip currents develops.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Today-Tonight...Rain chances return to the forecast today, as a cold front moves through the area into tonight. Mostly dry through the morning hours, before showers and storms begin to move into areas north and west of I-4 after 2 PM. Coverage will then increase from north to south into the evening hours, with all of the area seeing at least a 30% chance for showers by sunset. As the front moves south of the area overnight, drier conditions will begin to develop into late tonight. However, PoPs 30-60% will linger through the evening. A few to scattered storms will be possible, with modest CAPE, especially along the front itself. Any storms that develop will be capable of gusty winds (with lingering dry air aloft), lightning strikes, and heavy downpours.

Gusty southwesterly winds are expected late this morning through the afternoon, outside of any convection. Winds 15-20 mph are forecast, with gusts up to 30 mph. Model guidance suggests these winds will linger through the evening along the frontal passage, before diminishing to 10-15 mph by daybreak. Southwesterly flow will pin the sea breeze to the coast, allowing for even coastal areas to reach the upper 80s and threatening a few records along the Treasure Coast. Areas north of I-4, which are expected to see showers begin earlier in the day, look to remain in the mid-80s. Tonight, lows for most areas remain in the 60s, with upper 50s possible across northern portions of the forecast area.

Friday-Sunday...A weak Atlantic ridge axis moves over the Florida peninsula late this week and into this weekend. Limited drying occurs through Friday, with PWATs remaining up to 1.3" south of Orlando in onshore flow. This translates to a few to scattered showers (20-40%) remaining possible for southern portions of the area late Friday morning and into Friday afternoon. Dry air in the mid- levels will likely inhibit storm development. However, a few strong storms will be possible, should they be able to take advantage of DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and 500 mb temperatures near -11 C. Temperatures moderate from previous days, with breezy onshore winds 10-15 mph keeping highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Deeper moisture (PWATs up to 1.7") advects into the area this weekend, as onshore flow Saturday veers southerly on Sunday. PoPs increase through the period, with 30-60% Saturday becoming 70% area-wide on Sunday, due to the passing shortwave aloft. The highest coverage on Saturday looks to be generally south of Melbourne, where the highest moisture will reside. Cold temperatures aloft (500 mb near -12 to -13 C) will support the development of a few strong storms this weekend. The main threats will be gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy downpours, with storm motions around 10-15 mph. Total rainfall accumulations through the weekend look to remain around 1-1.5", but isolated totals near 2" cannot be ruled out. Highs warm into the lower 80s area-wide by Sunday, under high cloud coverage.

Monday-Thursday...A stout low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes early next week, dragging yet another cold front through the Florida peninsula Monday into Monday night. Medium to high rain chances persist through Monday, before drier air and lower PoPs (20-40%) develop into mid-week. Breezy winds return, with southwest flow veering onshore through the period. Highs in the lower 80s Monday will see a significant cooldown to near to below normal Tuesday through Thursday. Most areas will struggle to break out of the 60s Tuesday afternoon. Noticeably chillier lows are also expected, falling into the 50s, with mid to upper 40s north of I-4.

MARINE

Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Poor boating conditions offshore today, with south to southwest winds 15-20 kts. Conditions will deteriorate across all of the local Atlantic waters this evening and into tonight, as a cold front veer winds northerly at 20-30 kts. Seas in the Gulf Stream are forecast to build from 2-4 ft this afternoon to 6-9 ft by daybreak, with Small Craft Advisories issued. Conditions will be mostly dry through early afternoon, before coverage of showers and storms increases through late afternoon along the front.

Boating conditions improve into the weekend, as a weak ridge axis develops over the waters. While onshore flow diminishes through the day on Friday, becoming 10-15 kts by late afternoon, seas up to 6-8 ft linger in the Gulf Stream. Will see greater improvement Saturday, as seas fall to 3-5 ft. Breezy southerly winds begin Sunday, then veer southwesterly and increase to up to 20-25 kts offshore Monday, ahead of another approaching front. Medium to high coverage of showers and storms will continue through this weekend and into early next week, especially Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

MCO IMPACTS: - Gusty southwest breezes today, turning northwest this evening behind a cold front. 10% chance of peak gusts >= 30 KT. - Scattered to numerous showers with 30% chance of lightning storms late today, chances peaking between 20Z - 2Z.

Pre-frontal flow regime today with gusty southwest breezes. As the front arrives from NW to SE this afternoon and evening, scattered rain and a few storms will accompany it. Few peak gusts to around 30 KT, with gusts persisting and turning northerly to NNE immediately behind the front. Also expect some MVFR CIGs behind the front tomorrow night.

CLIMATE

Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate sites:

Mar 12 Monthly March DAB 90 1935 92 3/28/1994* LEE 88 2001 92 3/26/2023* SFB 90 2001 94 3/20/2003 MCO 89 2001 97 3/30/1907 MLB 90 1962 93 3/28/1994 VRB 88 2023 93 3/31/2020* FPR 89 1948 93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 86 60 77 61 / 80 40 10 10 MCO 87 62 80 65 / 70 40 20 20 MLB 87 65 78 65 / 60 60 20 30 VRB 87 65 79 64 / 40 60 30 30 LEE 84 58 81 61 / 70 20 10 10 SFB 87 61 80 62 / 70 40 10 20 ORL 87 62 80 63 / 70 40 20 20 FPR 88 65 79 64 / 40 60 30 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570.