textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Warm and humid weather pattern will persist across east central Florida through early next week, with scattered to numerous showers and storms possible each afternoon.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents is forecast at all east central Florida beaches this weekend; always swim near a lifeguard!

- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through Tuesday followed by slightly lower temperatures behind a "backdoor" cold front mid week which will bring breezy NE winds and deteriorating boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Thru Tonight...Considerable mid and upper cloudiness with patchy showers has delayed/limited sfc heating today but some thinning of the altocu and cirrus is occurring. This should allow a sea breeze to form along portions of the coast esp south of the Cape but little inland penetration. CAMs vary on storm coverage late this afternoon/early evening with HREF members (ARW and NSSL) appearing too aggressive. Still, there is a slight increase in westerly shear aloft and current ACARS sounding at MCO shows moist PWAT of 2.1" with SB CAPE of 2100 J/kg. So expect showers to increase in coverage as they move west to east this aftn and develop into lightning storms. The HRRR and RRFS show convection focusing near the coast which looks reasonable. Heavy rain will again be a concern with locally 1-3" in 60-90 minutes causing temporary flooding especially areas that have seen heavy rain in recent days.

Sun-Tue...Similarly moist pattern through early next week. The broad surface and mid-level high pressure south of the peninsula will remain in place as non-tropical low pressure pushes off the SE U.S. coast Mon. West to northwest flow persists at both the surface and aloft, which will allow for continued scattered to numerous shower and storm development each afternoon as the sea breeze collision occurs across the eastern portion of the peninsula. Lightning and wind gusts will be possible with storm development, but heavy rainfall and flooding concerns will remain at the forefront each day due to the moist atmospheric profile. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" will be possible each afternoon, but localized higher amounts exceeding 3" cannot be ruled out, especially in locations that receive multiple rounds of rainfall. Saturated locations from the prior day will also be more susceptible to flooding. Activity will continue to push offshore into the overnight hours.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal through Tuesday, with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. Higher humidity from the moist air mass will cause peak heat indices to reach the mid 90s to low 100s, so adequate hydration and breaks in air conditioning will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors. Lows will generally remain in the low to mid 70s each night.

Wed-Fri...Another non-tropical low is forecast to develop off the Carolinas Wed which is forecast to push the frontal boundary southward across central FL. NHC will monitor this particular low but it is not expected to stick around long as it lifts NE and away from the east coast late week. Surface high pressure will then filter in behind the boundary into Friday, allowing for some drier air to settle across east central Florida towards the end of the week. Winds will turn NE behind the front Wed and Thu, breezy at the coast, leading to the highest rain chances shifting inland. Temperatures are forecast to trend downward behind the front with highs in the mid 80s which is slightly below normal for early June.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Winds and seas are forecast to remain favorable across the local Atlantic waters as broad high pressure stays south of the area and a quasi-stationary boundary remains north of the area. Seas of 1 to 3 feet are forecast through Sunday with offshore winds of 5 to 10 knots in the mornings picking up to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoons. Along the immediate coast, the sea breeze could develop along portions of the coast. Seas build 3 to 5 feet Mon- Tue as a low pushes eastward into the Atlantic well north of the area, with westerly winds generally remaining offshore at 10 to 15 knots. Boating conditions begin to deteriorate Wed behind a "backdoor" cold front when winds shift out of the NE 15-20 knots and seas build 6-8 FT across north/central waters. NE winds persist Thu around 15 knots with choppy seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf Stream.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days, especially in the evenings as activity from the peninsula moves offshore and across the waters. Storm hazards include cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts exceeding 34 knots, and slightly higher seas near stronger storms. Activity will diminish through the overnight hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

High cloud cover working against afternoon-evening SHRA/TSRA potential. ISO-SCT convection has managed to develop in NOFL and WCFL where some breaks have opened up, but so far these has been weak and quick moving. Overall TS impacts this afternoon expected to be minimal due to low coverage and fast eastward motion. Highest chances 30-50% along the coast, lower at 20-30% inland. Have maintained either VC or PROB30 due to low chances/confidence. WNW-NW winds 5-10 kts. Cloud cover is also resulting in a weak/ slow east coast sea breeze, which is still near to just offshore most of the coast. Winds could become erratic at coastal terminals due to slow/nearly stationary inland progression, frequently switching between offshore and onshore. Winds become light/VRB overnight. Quick moving overnight -SHRA possible. Nearly identical setup Sunday, with offshore winds pinning the sea breeze, and ISO-SCT quick east moving afternoon- evening SHRA/TSRA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 87 73 88 / 30 80 40 70 MCO 74 88 74 88 / 20 70 20 60 MLB 76 88 75 90 / 20 80 40 70 VRB 75 88 74 90 / 20 70 40 60 LEE 75 89 76 88 / 20 60 20 60 SFB 75 90 74 89 / 20 70 20 70 ORL 75 89 75 88 / 20 70 20 60 FPR 75 88 73 89 / 20 70 50 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.