textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1221 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Aside from patchy morning fog, tranquil weather continues through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures. A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Atlantic beaches of Central Florida.

- Scattered showers and a few storms return on Wednesday. Along a cold front, a few additional showers are forecast from late Thursday into early Friday. Widespread heavy rain is not expected, with a 10-20% chance of amounts exceeding a half inch.

- The coolest air so far this autumn season is expected to arrive next weekend. From Greater Orlando and north, there is a 30-40% chance of wind chills reaching the upper 30s Saturday and Sunday morning.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Modified continental air has settled over the Southeast and Florida, with a sprawling high-pressure area extending from Georgia to northern Texas. Near- to below-normal total moisture exists across much of the Southeast this morning. The surface high should move little over the next 48 hours, ensuring continued subsidence early this week.

Right now, a split-flow jet stream configuration exists over CONUS, with a well-defined subtropical jet extending from an upper low over the Chihuahuan Desert to North Florida. Guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding upper-air pattern evolution over the next few days, resulting in a few forecast adjustments. A ripple of energy from this disturbance is now expected to eject slightly earlier, arriving over Florida by late Wednesday. Moisture is expected to increase slightly above normal as it passes.

The polar jet dominates the upper-level pattern across North America, with relatively weak troughs over the Northeast U.S. and Eastern Pacific. Ensemble guidance favors a largely stationary Rossby wave pattern over the next week or so. However, substantial amplification is anticipated as high-latitude blocking develops, turning both the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative. As a 200+ kt Pacific jet streak deepens a trough over the E Pacific, downstream ridging is expected to amplify across the West, with a deep trough subsequently developing over the Eastern U.S. beginning late Wednesday.

Surface cyclogenesis is forecast by Wednesday night over the Ohio Valley, en route to becoming a nor'easter off of the Jersey Shore by early Friday. Its accompanying cold front will be quickly sent southward, passing through Florida by Thursday night. Behind it, much drier and cooler air will be advected over the state, with PWAT values falling to 30% of normal and 925 mb temperatures dipping to +7 deg C by Saturday.

From Sunday into Monday, the large trough over the East Coast is expected to move slowly into the Atlantic. Upper-level convergence behind the trough should allow high pressure to drift toward the Appalachians by next Monday, with boundary-layer flow gradually turning onshore and moderation commencing.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tuesday...

With high soil moisture and light winds, patchy dense fog may develop this morning. Above the surface, RH values decrease, so the fog may be shallow. We will monitor this through the early morning hours. If you encounter fog, slow down and use your low-beam headlights. We may see a bit of fog again early Tuesday, but the chances look a little lower than today.

Otherwise, a mix of clouds and sunshine continues with predominantly dry weather as we begin the work week. Pleasant temperatures continue with coolish mornings (upper 50s-upper 60s) and warm afternoons (low 80s).

A lingering easterly swell will produce numerous, life-threatening rip currents at our beaches through at least today. Please stay out of the ocean!

Wednesday - Friday...

As mentioned in the overview, a pocket of subtropical jet stream energy is now expected to arrive a little sooner. One consequence is an increase in shower and storm chances on Wednesday (30-40%), mainly in the afternoon and evening. There is still some disagreement, particularly regarding moisture return and instability. We will need to keep an eye on this: if adequate instability is present, moderate effective shear associated with the subtropical jet may yield a couple of strong storms. The more likely scenario is scattered rain and isolated general lightning storms. Highs should reach the low 80s once more.

Expect more cloudiness on Thursday with a continued low chance of showers. Then, a strong cold front should pass through the area on Thursday night. Some additional showers may accompany this front through early Friday, particularly south of Orlando. Expect slightly cooler temps reaching the upper 70s on Thursday afternoon. Through early Friday, widespread heavy rainfall is not forecast, but there is a low chance for tallies of 1/2" to 1".

Dry conditions are forecast by Friday afternoon with slowly thinning clouds from north to south. West-northwest winds are expected to gust from 15 to 25 mph, with cooler high temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Saturday - next Monday...

A pressure gradient between the nor'easter and high pressure over the Missouri Valley is expected to cause chilly northwesterly flow over the peninsula from Friday night through early Sunday. This will send the coolest air so far this fall into Central Florida. Saturday and Sunday mornings look to be the coldest, with lows in the mid/upper 40s over all but the immediate Space/Treasure Coasts (low/mid 50s). Due to a lingering breeze, wind chills should fall into the low/mid 40s over areas near and north of Greater Orlando. The colder end of guidance has continued to trend downward, with a 30-40% chance of wind chills reaching the upper 30s generally near and northwest of Interstate 4 both mornings.

Despite mostly sunny skies, breezy and cool afternoons are in store. Highs on Saturday should range from the low to mid 60s, except maybe some upper 60s south of Vero Beach. We should be able to tack on about 5 degrees by late Sunday, with some 70s reappearing down south. Most areas should return to the low/mid 70s by next Monday.

While most of the guidance is dry early next week, there are a few solutions that show a stronger disturbance in the subtropical jet stream which would bring rain chances back sooner. Something to keep an eye on for now.

MARINE

Issued at 1221 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

High pressure will drift closer to Central Florida through Wednesday. A long-period easterly swell will linger, but seas will generally subside through midweek. A strong cold front is forecast to reach the waters by Thursday night, with fresh northwesterly flow behind the front beginning Friday. Poor to hazardous boating conditions are expected from Friday into at least Saturday.

N to NNW winds today 5-12 kt, turning NE at the coast with the afternoon sea breeze. Light and variable winds tonight and Tuesday, except easterly up to 10 kt on Tuesday afternoon along the coast. Winds turn southerly to southwesterly on Wednesday, then increase to 15-20 kt out of the southwest late Thursday ahead of the front. Seas 3-4 ft nearshore through Tuesday, up to 6 ft well offshore. Seas subside to 2-4 ft on Wed/Thu.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 605 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

VSBY (MVFR/IFR) reductions possible early this morning surrounding terminals across the I-4 corridor. LIFR VSBY reductions at LEE. VFR and dry conds otherwise. Light/variable winds across the interior, transitioning onshore in the afternoon along the coast up to 10 kts. Could be a rinse/repeat for VSBY reductions late tonight/Tuesday morning N/W of I-4 again.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1221 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise over the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) appears to be reaching Major flood stage early this morning, with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage by the weekend. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 81 63 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 83 63 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 82 68 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 84 68 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 82 62 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 83 62 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 83 63 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 83 67 82 68 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.