textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Hot and muggy conditions continue the rest of the week and into the holiday weekend, with peak heat indices in the U90s to L-M100s each afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast most days.

- Deep moisture with a nearby frontal boundary will result in scattered to locally numerous showers and lightning storms through Thursday with potentially higher than normal rain chances continuing into the Fourth of July weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and lightning storms across east central Florida with the greatest coverage across the southwest portions of east central Florida. GOES- 16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies. Analysis charts show a frontal boundary to the southeast of east central Florida, as well as high pressure (~1020mb)to the north building over the Mid South and Ohio Valley. Temperatures are currently in the mid 80s to low 90s with heat index values up to 98-105F degrees. Dew points are in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with east-northeast winds at 5-12mph with gusts to 20-25mph.

Scattered to numerous showers (30-50% chance along the coast and 50- 60% inland) lightning storms are expected into the late afternoon hours before diminishing by around 8PM for the inland locations. This morning's 15Z XMR sounding shows MLCAPE at 1,273 J/kg, DCAPE at 1,337 J/kg, 0-6km shear at 4kts, a 500mb temperature at -7.2C, a PWAT value of 1.71" and substantial dry weather . The aforementioned parameters suggest that there is the potential for a strong storm or two capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-3" in 30-60 minutes with a 1 in 10 chance of total amounts in excess of 2" up to 3-4"). Isolated to scattered (20-30% chance) onshore moving showers are forecast overnight and into Thursday morning, especially from southern Brevard county southwards. Above normal lows (~1-4F+) in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Thursday-Friday... Predominately onshore flow with high pressure to the north over the eastern CONUS coupled with PWATs in the 1.8-2.3" range are expected on Thursday. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast in the morning along the coast before scattered to numerous (40-70%) developing inland into the afternoon hours with the greatest chance, mainly to the south of Orlando across the south and western portions of east central Florida. A similar forecast is expected on Friday as onshore flow continues, although moisture is expected to increase across the north which will result in higher rain chances (30-80% chance generally highest across the interior) areawide. Guidance indicates MUCAPE up to 2,000-3,200 on Thursday and 2,000-4,000 J/kg on Friday with very weak 0-6k shear and PWATs between 1.8-2.3". The potential exists for a couple of strong storms capable of wind gusts up to 40- 50mph, frequent to excessive lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3" in 30-60 minutes with a 1 in 10 chance of total amounts in excess of 2" up to 3-4".) Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast with heat index values up to 98-107F degrees. A Moderate HeatRisk exists on Thursday with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk on friday. A Major HeatRisk can affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Visit wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk for more information on HeatRisk.

Saturday-Tuesday... A mid/upper level ridge with 500mb heights around 594dm over the eastern CONUS on Saturday is forecast to shift east-southeast over the southwest Atlantic on Sunday and Monday. Southwest winds in the morning on Sunday are forecast to back onshore along the coast and veer west-southwest, mainly along and west of I-4 which will result in daily sea breeze driven showers and lightning storms into each afternoon and evening. The potential exists for a couple to a few strong storms each afternoon. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and above normal (~1-4F+) lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast. The probability of a Major HeatRisk is generally between 30-90% with the highest probabilities along and north of I-4.

MARINE

Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Currently-Thursday... Mostly favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast. East winds at around 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are forecast to weaken into Thursday at 5-10kts. Seas to 2-4 ft are expected with up to 5 ft over the offshore (20-60nm) Volusia and Brevard county waters.

Friday-Sunday... Mostly favorable boating conditions are expected late week and into the weekend outside of showers and lightning storms. Winds will turn east-southeasterly at 5-10kts into Friday afternoon and south-southeasterly at 10-15kts over the weekend. Isolated to scattered generally onshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast each day. The potential exists for a strong storm or two capable of wind gusts in excess of 34kts. Seas to 1-3ft are expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. NE winds 10-14 kt with occasional gusts around 20 kt will subside after 00-01z. Sct SHRA/TSRA is moving W and will continue toward the west FL coast thru 00z. Most terminals trend drier no later than 00z (VCSH could linger a bit longer at LEE). Dry overnight with iso SHRA psbl at the coast thru 12z. Light NE winds increase to 7-12 kt after 14z Thu. with more iso/sct SHRA/TSRA psbl (kept VC mention for now).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 89 76 90 / 20 30 10 30 MCO 75 92 75 93 / 10 40 10 70 MLB 79 89 78 90 / 20 40 10 50 VRB 78 90 77 91 / 30 40 10 60 LEE 75 93 76 93 / 0 30 10 60 SFB 75 93 75 94 / 10 30 10 60 ORL 75 92 76 93 / 10 30 10 70 FPR 76 89 75 90 / 30 40 20 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.