textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Rough surf and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents continue at area beaches. Residents and visitors should use caution at the beach and avoid entering the water.

- Shower chances modestly increase today along the coast, then drier again Thursday. Rain chances ramp up again this weekend. - Strong northeast winds forecast to return this weekend; very windy with dangerous surf and boating conditions, a risk for more beach erosion and minor coastal flooding possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Current-Thu...High pressure over the Great Lakes extending into the Deep South will allow for a continuation of NERLY winds. A rather tight pressure gradient continues across the area supporting 10-15 mph winds with gusts to 20-25 mph during the day. Speeds drop to 5- 10 mph at night and perhaps a little higher at the coast. Enough moisture will exist for occasional (20-30%) onshore-moving showers along the coast, esp Cape southward today; mostly St. Lucie/Martin counties on Thu. Marine stratocu will push onshore with times of broken CIGs, esp near the coast. Near seasonable max temps each day with L80s for most today, though a bit cooler on Thu U70s-L80s. Min temps mostly in the 60s with U50s across the interior.

Fri-Tue...The weather pattern again becomes unsettled with energy aloft and surface low pressure developing along an old frontal boundary near or northeast of the Bahamas. Moisture deepens and rain chances increase Fri night into the weekend. The pressure gradient tightens, once again, and NE/ENE winds strengthen. Expect winds Fri afternoon 15-20 mph and frequently gusty. Very windy conditions expected Sat/Sun with speeds increasing 20-30 mph sustained with higher gusts. Wind Advisories may be necessary, at least for the coast. Expect windy/gusty conditions to continue into early next week as the pgrad is slow to relax.

These strong winds will coincide with high astronomical tides and help produce another hazardous coastal event. Beach erosion, rough surf, minor coastal flooding, and dangerous rip currents beginning as soon as Fri. Near seasonal high temps in the U70s-L80s, but above normal overnight lows in the M60s across the interior and U60s-L70s at the coast due to the strong onshore flow.

MARINE

Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Thru Sun...While the pgrad has relaxed a bit, allowing for winds to decrease and seas to slowly subside some; it will be short-lived. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Fast, onshore-moving showers (20-30%) are possible today, esp Cape southward, and focused mainly south on Thu. Expect increasing rain coverage again by the weekend. By Fri afternoon and continuing into the weekend, high pressure to the north quickly strengthens and tightens the surface pressure gradient once again. Strong to near Gale force NE/ENE winds are forecast to develop as rain chances increase from south to north. Seas build 12-15 ft by late Sat, creating dangerous marine conditions. NMRS showers with an ISOLD lightning storm or two are forecast this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 615 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Generally VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Northeast winds 5-10 KT will become northeast and increase to 10-15 KT with gust 20-25 KT at times by mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible this afternoon, mainly along the coast from Cape Canaveral southward. Have maintained VCSH for FPR and SUA. Have added a PROB30 for SUA from 20Z through 23Z for MVFR CIGs/VIS in SHRA. Winds will begin to slacken in the evening, with north to northeast winds at 5-10 KT overnight with mostly dry conditions. Winds will then pick back up by mid morning Thursday, with NE winds increasing to 8-12 KT with gusts to around 20 KT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 64 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 82 61 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 82 68 80 67 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 84 67 82 66 / 30 10 0 0 LEE 80 58 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 81 60 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 61 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 83 67 82 65 / 30 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.