textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- A HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at area beaches today. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

- Hot temperatures into the first half of the weekend (near record), especially over the interior.

- Mostly dry conditions will persist through the work-week, with just isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms mainly north of Orlando Thursday/Friday afternoons.

- HOT and breezy/gusty on Saturday (pre-frontal), with scattered to numerous shower/lightning storm chances developing late Saturday afternoon (northward) becoming areawide Saturday night thru Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Current-Friday...Weak high pressure ridge axis across the central FL peninsula today slides southward toward the FL Straits tonight into Thu, then further seaward Fri with the approach of the next low pressure system that drops into north FL. This short-lived feature will begin to lift northward again late Fri/Fri night as another low pressure system develops across the NW Gulf. Generally dry thru the period, but we do carry a small threat for ISOLD-SCT showers and isolated lightning storms Thu/Fri (20-30%) afternoon/early eve, though most recent model guidance has scaled back further northward (north of I-4) for any of this activity.

The main headline continues to be the above normal temps Thu-Fri in the U80s to near 90F at the coast and generally L90s inland. Generally offshore flow, but we will see an ECSB appearance each afternoon along the coast. The longer this feature is delayed, the greater chances for soaring temps at the coast. A Minor to Moderate HeatRisk will gradually build each day, affecting those who are sensitive to heat and those without adequate cooling and hydration. At area beaches, a HIGH risk of rip currents exists today. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Will continue to monitor, but patchy fog not inclusive (yet) in the grids/forecast, but greatest chances may be southward toward Lake Okeechobee (low-level winds lightest) where we saw some briefly early this past morning. Min temps Thu-Sat mornings in the 60s areawide.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified.

Sat-Tue...Above normal (near record) temperatures continue Sat as WSW flow strengthens 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts (25-30+ mph) ahead of the next cold front. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through much of Sat before ISOLD to SCT rain (storm) chances (20-50%) build southward through the Orlando Metro late in the aftn. Rain chances gradually become more areawide Sat night into Sun (70-80%) as the front drops south. Will monitor threat associated with storm evolvement with the best signal for instability in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee after sunrise Sun. However, ISOLD to SCT lightning storm chances exist Sat night into early Sun as low-level shear profiles modestly increase. PWAT values will soar to 1.80-2.00" in vicinity of the boundary. Weak shortwave impulses embedded in the near zonal flow will aid convection.

A heavy rain threat may exist Sat night into Sun and the Weather Prediction Center has placed parts of ECFL within a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Days 4/5. At present, primary storm threats will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours - potentially leading to minor flooding of low-lying and prone areas, esp those areas that receive multiple rounds in a short period. Low rain chances persist Mon and perhaps Tue (esp well south of Orlando) as the front continues to slowly push through south Florida.

Highs widely in the L-M90s Sat become widely variable north to south on Sun (M70s north to L80s near Lake Okee/Treasure Coast) as cloud cover and rain chances increase and the front moves across the area. Slightly below normal temps across ECFL Mon (U70s coast to L80s inland), with a warming trend beginning again on Tue - L80s coast and M-U80s interior. Mins mostly in the 60s, though M-U50s may be possible north Lake/northwest Volusia counties.

MARINE

Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

High pressure across the central FL peninsula will gradually settle southward across the FL Straits overnight thru Fri. This will lead a return to favorable boating conditions thru Fri afternoon as seas subside to 3-4 ft, then back to 3-5 ft Sat/Sun, locally higher invof of weekend convection. Light S/SE flow across the waters this afternoon veers offshore tonight and continuing, except "backing" onshore 10-15 kts each afternoon Thu/Fri along the coast with sea breeze formation. Offshore winds then prevail Fri night into the weekend.

Mostly dry, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms (offshore-moving) over the northern Volusia County waters Thu aftn and possibly again Fri aftn, as a weak front drops into north Florida, before retreating northward again late Fri/Fri night.

A stronger low pressure system will approach the area this weekend, increasing S/SW winds and coverage of showers and storms, again, fairly quick, offshore-moving variety. While seas are expected to build slightly (5-6 ft Sun), winds may increase toward Cautionary criteria (poor boating) Fri overnight thru Sat night (esp offshore) and potentially into Sun. Winds will continue to veer N/NNE behind the front Sat overnight into Sun.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 746 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conditions generally expected to prevail through tonight and into Thursday. Patchy ground fog may develop in spots late tonight through early Thursday morning, but overall probabilities for IFR/MVFR conditions in any fog is pretty low (10% or less), so for now will leave any mention out of the TAFs. Dry conditions will continue through much of the period, but may see isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two move through areas mainly near to north of KSFB from mid afternoon through early evening tomorrow (~20-00Z). Added VCSH for KDAB where rain chances are highest (around 20-30%).

Sea breeze collision will occur across the interior, near KMCO/KSFB this evening, with winds diminishing and becoming variable overnight. Winds pick up out of the W/SW around 8-10 knots Thursday. Best potential for east coast sea breeze development will be from KMLB southward from 20-22Z, with winds becoming SE around 10-12 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Hot and dry conditions build through late week with low shower and lightning storm chances, limited to areas generally north of Orlando Thursday and Friday. West-southwest flow remains less than 15 mph each afternoon, and this should be enough to limit the east coast sea breeze's inland progression. MinRH becomes sensitive across portions of the interior each day into the weekend with values falling 35-45%. Generally Good to Very Good afternoon smoke dispersion is forecast across much of the area this afternoon, becoming Excellent across portions of the northwest interior. Very Good to Excellent afternoon dispersion is forecast, again, Thursday and Friday for much of east central Florida.

A cold front will bring the next chance for wetting rain across much of the area late Saturday through Sunday. West-southwest flow increases to 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts (25-30 mph) on Saturday ahead of the front which will increase control concerns. Lightning strikes late this weekend will be an additional concern for new fire starts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site Apr 29 Apr 30 May 1 May 2 DAB 94 (1968) 92 (1953) 94 (2002) 95 (1953) LEE 94 (2017) 95 (1991) 94 (2017) 95 (1990) SFB 93 (2017) 93 (1971) 95 (2017) 94 (2010) MCO 96 (1906) 95 (1971) 96 (1917) 97 (1906) MLB 91 (1986) 93 (1964) 94 (2002) 95 (2002) VRB 94 (1986) 91 (1975) 96 (1971) 94 (2002) FPR 92 (1923) 97 (1971) 93 (2002) 95 (2002)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 66 89 67 86 / 0 20 10 20 MCO 68 92 69 92 / 0 10 0 10 MLB 68 90 68 87 / 0 10 0 0 VRB 66 90 66 89 / 0 10 0 0 LEE 68 90 69 90 / 0 10 0 10 SFB 68 92 68 91 / 0 10 0 10 ORL 69 91 70 91 / 0 10 0 10 FPR 66 90 65 89 / 0 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.