textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms between roughly 3-11 PM today, especially near and north of I-4. The primary hazard is a 5-15% chance for damaging wind gusts. There is also a small chance for large hail and a tornado.

- Hot ahead of the storms today with widespread low/mid 90s in the afternoon. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast, which affects those sensitive to heat and/or without access to adequate hydration or cooling. Temps turn cooler on Sunday.

- Peak wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected ahead of any storms on Saturday afternoon. Combined with low relative humidity and drought conditions, sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are forecast. Outdoor burning is discouraged today! A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon south of Orlando and the Cape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today...A cold front extending from the northern Gulf across north FL this morning is forecast to push into Lake/Volusia counties later this afternoon and across the remainder of EC FL tonight. Ahead of this front, strong and gusty SW winds will produce a windy day. Despite considerable high cloud cover across northern sections, it will not take much heating to mix down 30 knot winds located just above the sfc. So a Wind Advisory has been issued for Brevard/Osceola northward for frequent gusts near 35 mph peaking during the early to mid afternoon. Max temps across Lake/Volusia counties may hold in the upper 80s due to the cloud cover and incoming convection later this aftn assocd with the front.

Southern sections (south of Orlando) will have additional concerns. While also breezy/gusty, better heating will produce hotter temps reaching the mid 90s even at the coast due to lack of any sea breeze due to the offshore (SW) flow. This will produce near record highs at MLB/VRB/FPR. In addition, deep mixing will produce lowest RH values across the south. Low RH combined with the gusty SW winds and already dry conditions has prompted a Red Flag Warning from Osceola/south Brevard to Okeechobee and Treasure coast. Important to note that today will be a very fire sensitive day across all of EC FL but Red Flag criteria are most likely to be met across the south. Any new or existing fires will be capable of spreading rapidly.

Increased moisture (PWAT 1.70-2.00") along the frontal zone will combine with cool mid levels (-10 to -11C at 500mb), sufficient instability (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and most notably strong upper level shear 50-65 knots to produce a risk of strong to severe storms this aftn and eve focused along and north of I 4 but extends across Orlando metro and Brevard/Osceola counties. There are some mitigating factors though, including a warm layer near 700 mb as well as deep mixing which will produce high LCLs. So the tornado threat looks quite low. The primary threat will be strong to damaging wind gusts (5-15% chance). Large hail would be more likely in discrete individual supercells but the shear may be too strong too allow for this. Convection is forecast to weaken by late this eve as the front pushes southward into Okeechobee/ Treasure coast.

Any lightning strikes may spark brush fires that smolder for a day or two before flaring up.

Sunday...The front will be across south FL but a ripple of energy riding along the front will keep clouds and rain chances across southern sections, with highest rain chances (70%) focused on Martin county. Drier air filtering in from the north will producing increasing sunshine across the north. North to northeast wind flow will produce breezy conditions along the coast at 20-25 mph and noticeably cooler temps in the mid to upper 70s, lower 80s Lake county.

Mon-Fri...Zonal flow aloft will continue the first half of the week with a ridge nosing in from the SW Gulf mid week. This ridge will get flattened by a long wave trough rotating across the eastern CONUS late week. At the surface, elongated high pressure will extend from the Gulf Coast States across the Southeast U.S, shifting southward mid-week ahead of the next front pushing into the deep South. The front is forecast to push across the area around Friday but moisture looks rather meager so rain chances are currently low. There will be a quick warm-up with afternoon highs reaching into the low to mid 90s by Wed/Thu.

MARINE

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Southwest winds will increase today ahead of a frontal boundary draped across north FL. Winds 15-20 knots will be prevalent over the offshore waters especially south of Sebastian Inlet. A period of 20 knots winds (advisory criteria) is forecast this afternoon but will handle with a Caution as duration looks brief. The front will push into the northern waters late today with a wind shift out of the W/NW over the Volusia waters and an increase of 15-20 knots. The front is forecast to continue southward reaching south FL by early Sat. Winds will turn N behind the front at 15-20 knots tonight and N/NE Sunday. Seas build 4-5 FT nearshore and 6 FT in the Gulf Stream behind the front. Do not anticipate need for an SCA so will handle with a Caution. Nonetheless, boating conditions will be poor on Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded storms will accompany the front and linger across the southern waters Sunday.

Elongated high pressure to the north builds over the area Mon-Tue with winds gradually becoming more East by Tue and speeds 10-15 knots. Winds become SE Wed as the trailing ridge axis settles southward toward the area. Seas fall below 6 FT in the Gulf Stream late Mon with 3-4 FT Tue and 3 FT Wed areawide.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

MCO IMPACTS: - Gusty southwest winds from late morning through the afternoon. Peak gusts to around 30 KT. - Scattered TS with a low (10-20%) chance for wind gusts exceeding 35 KT between 21Z-01Z. - Wind shift to NW on this evening behind TSRA/SHRA, followed by a period of MVFR CIGs tonight.

Little bit of fog/stratus hard to see on satellite under high clouds marauding around ECFL this morning. Could see some MVFR- IFR reductions from KMCO/KISM-KMLB-KTIX before 13Z. Light W-SSW winds early this morning quickly increase ahead of an approaching front to SW 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts after 13Z, then further increase to 15-20 kts with gusts to around 30 kts after 16Z, and can't rule out winds occasionally pushing higher in the early afternoon. SCT TSRA along/ahead of the front arrive at KLEE/KDAB first around 18Z, gradually pushing south over the next several hours, reaching the KSUA around 02Z, then dissipating after 05Z. ISO +TSRA that could produce wind gusts exceeding 35 kts possible, especially from KMLB north between 19Z-03Z. High moisture near the front will continue to produce -SHRA and drop CIGs to MVFR behind the main convective line through most of the night. Gradually southward clearing of CIGs after 08Z as the front settles into South Florida.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Strong and gusty southwest to west winds today will increase 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph by early afternoon and produce a fire weather sensitive day across all of east central FL. Hottest temps and lowest RH values will occur south of Orlando where mid 90s and critical RH values are forecast. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Osceola, Okeechobee, Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River and south Brevard counties this afternoon. Dispersion values will be Excellent all areas. Such conditions will support rapid spread of any new or existing fires.

An cold front will push into Lake and Volusia counties late today and reach south Florida early Sunday. Scattered showers and lightning storms will accompany the front beginning late this afternoon across the north, spreading southward tonight. Cooler on Sunday behind the front with lingering showers and storms across southern sections. Any lightning strikes will be a concern for new fire starts. Unfortunately, the rainfall this weekend is forecast to bring only limited drought relief.

CLIMATE

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Record high temperatures today:

Site May 2 DAB 95 (1953) LEE 95 (1990) SFB 94 (2010) MCO 97 (1906) MLB 95 (2002) VRB 94 (2002) FPR 95 (2002)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 61 77 61 / 60 50 10 0 MCO 92 64 79 64 / 40 70 20 10 MLB 93 67 78 67 / 20 60 40 20 VRB 94 68 77 66 / 20 60 60 30 LEE 88 61 80 60 / 60 60 10 0 SFB 91 63 80 61 / 40 60 10 10 ORL 90 64 80 63 / 40 60 20 10 FPR 94 68 77 66 / 10 60 60 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ053-058-154-159-164-254-259-264-547-647-747.

AM...None.