textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through this week. The main storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise, frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph will also be possible.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches again today. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current-Wednesday...Weak frontal boundary will remain in proximity to central FL into early Wed, then lift back northward. Light onshore flow develops today with early formation of a diffuse sea breeze and penetration well inland for a change. An eventual late day/evening collision should occur across WCFL today, and the collision on Wed will also occur across the interior. PWATs remain very high, well in excess of 2". Steering flow will be weak and erratic today and much of the same into Wed. PoPs today 30-50% along the coast and 50-70% into the interior - highest may be along the Kissimmee River. Probably expecting highest PoPs on Wed across the eastern/central FL peninsula with 50-70% PoPs areawide. Aloft, we have weak troughing thru mid-week aiding convection allowing for continued higher chances. Primary storm impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds locally 40-50 mph, and torrential downpours capable of 2-4" in a relatively short period (esp interior) promoting minor/nuisance flooding in repeated rounds.

Max temps near climo in the U80s/L90s. Humid overnight with mins in the 70s. Peak heat indices in the U90s to L100s ahead of daily storms.

Thu-Mon...Subtle shortwave troughing aloft will traverse central FL aiding mostly diurnal convection thru the period. At the surface, with the former trough lifting north moisture will surge across the region into the weekend. Weak ridging noses back toward and across the central FL peninsula thru late work-week and points further north thru the weekend. The pressure pattern remains fairly weak and expect daily sea breeze formation and push inland. PWAT values remain in excess of 2" into Sun, then perhaps some slightly drier air late Sun into Mon. Generally light SW storm steering Thu-Sat becoming light SERLY Sat night-Mon. Still expect occasional erratic storm motions surrounding stronger late day boundary collisions. Fairly high PoP numbers (60-70%) continue. Primary storm impacts continue to revolve around locally heavy rainfall. Near seasonal temps for highs (U80s-L90s) with lows in the 70s and conditions remaining humid. Peak heat indices continue in the U90s to M100s.

MARINE

Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Thru Saturday...A weak frontal boundary has dipped into central FL and will remain nearby into mid-week before advancing back north. A fairly weak pressure gradient remains in place though the Atlc surface ridge will try to nudge back into the local waters late Thu and Friday, then further north into the weekend. Variable winds early today will transition onshore thru the morning and afternoon along the coast as the sea breeze pushes well inland for a change. Winds will continue to become onshore 10-12 kts each afternoon along the coast into the extended with sea breeze formation and march inland. Moisture remains high thru the period and expect ISOLD-SCT showers/lightning storms to remain in the forecast becoming occasionally scattered to numerous in coverage. Occasional diurnal offshore-moving storms affecting the intracoastal/near shore waters will also continue. A few strong storms, are possible with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds in excess of 40 kts, and heavy downpours. Overnight activity mostly confined to the Gulf Stream, where a few strong storms will remain possible with frequent lightning/gusty winds. Seas locally higher invof storms. Seas build 2-4 ft during today, highest offshore/Cape northward and this trend continues southward thru Wed 3-5 ft, then gradually subsiding Wed night into the weekend back toward 2-3 ft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Onshore-moving showers and storms early this morning will continue inland, increasing in coverage across the interior late morning into this afternoon. Have added PROB30s to all sites except LEE due to lower confidence in exact placement of coverage. The PROB30s are generally between 15-19Z along the coast and 18-22Z across MCO, ISM, and SFB. VCTS has the potential to last through 02Z across the interior, with VCSH along the coast through 03Z. Light and variable winds return overnight, picking up out of the SE after 14Z tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 77 89 76 / 40 30 50 10 MCO 90 76 91 75 / 60 20 70 10 MLB 89 78 90 78 / 40 20 50 10 VRB 88 76 89 76 / 50 30 50 10 LEE 90 76 91 76 / 70 40 60 10 SFB 90 76 91 76 / 60 20 70 10 ORL 90 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 10 FPR 88 75 89 76 / 50 30 50 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.