textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- High risk of rip currents continues at area beaches this weekend, entering the surf is strongly discouraged

- Isolated showers and lightning storms are possible this evening across the interior, and again on Sunday afternoon and evening along the sea breeze collision

- Above normal temperatures and near record highs possible Sunday into next week, particularly across the interior

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Now-Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers are moving west- northwest this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze treks inland. Southeast winds are a bit gusty, reaching 20-25 mph at times, especially at the coast. Shower chances will slowly transition inland through late afternoon, and a sea breeze collision is anticipated just west of our area closer to sunset. Isolated lightning storms that form west of Lake County this evening will have slow and erratic storm motions, due to light steering flow aloft. Thus, we are carrying a ~25% chance of rain along the Lake/Sumter county line through about midnight, in the event that a shower or storm drifts back east. With that said, a bulk of the measurable rain should remain west of ECFL this evening. A warm afternoon gives way to a mild evening as temps retreat into the 60s overnight. A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out along the coast after midnight but confidence in any one location receiving rain is low (15% or less).

Sunday-Sunday Night...Another very warm day is in store to finish out the weekend (highs in the 80s), and a few locations could receive an afternoon/early evening cooldown in the form of a shower or storm. While still light, mid-level steering winds increase to around 10-15 knots on Sunday. At the surface, the west coast breeze is forecast to be slightly stronger. As the FL sea breeze circulation takes shape, CAMs and medium range guidance favor shower and storm development (generally after 2-3 PM) from the Volusia and north Brevard coast to the Orlando metro, south toward Lake Okeechobee. This is farther east compared to today's sea breeze collision. 500mb temps around -11C and DCAPE of 850-1000 J/kg could support a marginally strong storm or two with gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning being the main threats. Low-level lapse rates will be steep as surface temps warm but 0-6 km rates appear marginal at best (5.5-6.0 C/km). Any storm that manages to organize or strengthen briefly is not likely to last for very long. Shower and isolated storm activity could linger through late evening before dissipating before/around midnight. Temps settle into the 60s again Sunday night, perhaps a degree or two cooler where rain occurs.

Monday-Friday (modified)...Surface pressure ridging remains near or across the central FL peninsula for much of this period. Both the GFS/ECMWF are coming in better line with bringing a cold front and higher precip chances thru the area on Thu/Thu night. High pressure to the north will follow the front across the region on Fri. Leading up to this, ESE surface winds may veer a bit more SE/S at times and decrease in speed as the pressure gradient relaxes. This will likely promote a better chance for patchy (dense) fog development across the area Mon/Tue mornings. Periodic onshore-moving showers along the coast and an ISOLD aftn/evening lightning storm cannot be ruled out across the interior, though PWATs will be modest through Wed. A 20pct or less chance of precip exists Mon., followed by mostly dry conditions Tue/Wed. If models remain consistent for Thu, SCT (40-50pct) showers and ISOLD (aftn/early eve) lightning storms will be possible. A 15-30pct chance for precip remains in the forecast for now on Fri, but it will depend on model consistency and whether a clean frontal passage (scouring out of moisture) occurs from the day before.

Well above normal temperatures continue thru this period. Highs each day in the L80s at the immediate coast and M-U80s into the interior, with a 90F reading or two within reach. These temperatures will flirt with records which run in the U80s to around 90F each of these days across the interior. Overnight lows will remain mild and continue generally in the 60s areawide.

MARINE

Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions will continue Sunday into next week as high pressure maintains an influence over the local Atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers and a lightning storm or two are possible Sunday and Monday (particularly Sunday afternoon and evening). Wind direction will vary from ESE to SSE with speeds 10-15 knots and occasionally higher gusts. A slight uptick in winds is forecast Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas generally 3-5 feet (up to 6 feet well offshore) through Monday, decreasing to around 3-4 feet Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 607 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Low confidence tonight with regard to fog and low stratus development. Probabilities are generally low for either (<30%) but with the amount of moisture in place, trends will need to be monitored closely. On Sunday afternoon, boundary collisions mid- peninsula should spark scattered convection. Continued the VCTS mention in the afternoon at the favored terminals, including MCO. Later TAFs may need to introduce TEMPO TS. Otherwise, few SHRA at SUA from the Grand Bahama streamers this evening. ESE winds 5-15 KT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 84 63 83 / 10 30 30 20 MCO 66 86 66 88 / 20 30 30 20 MLB 66 83 65 83 / 20 20 30 20 VRB 66 83 64 83 / 20 20 20 10 LEE 65 86 65 86 / 20 30 20 20 SFB 65 87 65 87 / 10 30 30 20 ORL 66 86 67 87 / 20 30 30 20 FPR 64 83 63 83 / 20 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.