textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- The typical Florida summertime pattern will persist locally through this weekend and into next week with daily afternoon showers and storms forecast across east central Florida.

- Storm hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts of 50-55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3".

- Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Today-Tonight...The mid-level low begins to weaken across northern Florida today as troughing across the eastern US extends southward towards it. At the surface, this will result in the Atlantic high remaining well south of the area, with a quasi- stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US slowly drifting a bit southward. A plume of moisture will maintain itself across Florida, with PWATs forecast to exceed 2" areawide. Light southwest winds continue at the surface, with a bit more of a southerly component aloft through this morning assisting with an easier development and push inland of the east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are forecast, with PoPs remaining between 30-50%. Some Saharan dust drifting across the peninsula will maintain a pocket of drier air between 850-500 mb today along with cooler temperatures aloft (around -8C). This combined with adequate daytime heating supporting plenty of instability will favor scattered storm development, with storm hazards include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours resulting in 1-3" of rainfall across the area. Marginally severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out given the drier air aloft. Additionally, light steering flow will increase the potential for erratic and slow storm motions, which will mean there is a greater risk of minor, localized flooding in some spots. Activity will generally push offshore across the local Atlantic waters, with mostly dry conditions through the overnight hours.

Heat persists across east central Florida, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat indices are forecast to reach 102F to 107F, remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria. However, the risk of developing heat-related illness remains high across the area, so residents and visitors alike are strongly encouraged to practice heat safety today. Remain well-hydrated, take breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building, and wear lightweight, lightly colored clothing. Never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Near normal temperatures overnight with lows in the mid 70s.

Saturday-Sunday...Mid-level troughing across the eastern US will extend southward through this weekend, absorbing the mid-level low. The surface Atlantic high will continue to remain south of east central Florida, and the quasi-stationary boundary will continue southward as the upper level support pushes it south. The typical diurnal pattern will persist, with afternoon showers and storms being driven by the development and interaction of the sea breezes. PoPs remain in the 30-50% range each afternoon, with the usual storm hazards all in play; lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Dry air aloft from the Saharan dust will continue to increase the risk of strong to marginally severe wind gusts, though most wind gusts should remain at or below 55 mph. Additionally, minor, localized flooding will continue to be a potential concern due to light steering flow aloft and cooler temperatures around 500 mb will maintain the risk of small hail development. Light offshore steering flow will result in activity pushing off the coast and out across the local Atlantic waters each evening, with mostly dry conditions through the overnight hours across east central Florida.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near-normal through this weekend, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. While guidance continues to favor remaining below advisory criteria, peak heat indices are still anticipated to reach the 102F-107F range. If spending extended periods of time outdoors this weekend, be sure to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat-related illness.

Monday-Thursday...The mid-level troughing across the eastern US lifts northeastward into next week, resulting in a lift northward of the stalled boundary across the southeastern US. This will allow the Atlantic high to lift northward, with the ridge axis forecast to establish itself across central Florida once again. While the pattern itself will change very minimally from the typical afternoon showers and storms, there will be a change in wind direction from a predominantly offshore component to more of a southerly component. This has implications on how far inland the east coast sea breeze will be able to push as well as where the highest rain and storm chances will be focused (more across the interior rather than the east coast). It is worth noting that guidance has trended drier on Monday due to some Saharan air potentially drifting towards the peninsula resulting in PoPs falling to 20-30%, but there remains some uncertainty with this still. Overall, the typical summertime pattern is forecast to persist, with lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours all possible with activity. Temperatures are anticipated to remain near-normal through next week, with peak heat indices likely remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria. Regardless, heat will continue to be a concern across east central Florida, so residents and visitors are encouraged to think ahead about heat safety and preventing heat-related illness.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into early next week. The Atlantic ridge axis is forecast to remain south of the local waters through Sunday, with west to southwest winds prevailing at 10 to 15 knots. By Monday and into the middle of the week, the ridge axis lifts northward, with winds becoming more southerly. Winds will additionally be influenced by the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon, with winds becoming more south to southeasterly. Seas of 1 to 3 feet persist, highest across the offshore waters. Scattered offshore- moving showers and storms will be possible each afternoon into the overnight hours across the local waters. Hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, small hail, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas within vicinity of the strongest storms. While coverage will generally trend downward through the overnight period, isolated shower and storm development across the Gulf Stream waters cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 112 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Quiet conditions through this morning with VFR and light winds. This evening's guidance has come in with lower coverage of storms later today. Confidence in this remains low, however, due to ample heating and moisture. Expect a sea breeze to form and hug close to the coast, with scattered (30%) coverage of storms by mid- afternoon and into early evening. For now, used PROB30 to handle timing of highest convective potential. Storms will once again be capable of isolated gusts to 35+ kt and brief IFR/LIFR restrictions if they occur over terminals. For MCO in particular, the greatest chance for nearby storms is roughly between 19Z and 23Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 76 93 76 / 30 20 50 10 MCO 95 77 94 76 / 30 20 30 10 MLB 93 77 93 77 / 40 30 40 10 VRB 93 75 93 75 / 40 30 30 10 LEE 93 76 92 75 / 30 20 40 10 SFB 94 77 93 77 / 40 20 40 10 ORL 94 77 94 77 / 30 20 30 10 FPR 92 75 92 75 / 40 30 40 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.