textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Above normal temperatures and near record highs possible through Wednesday, especially across the interior

- Lower rain chances into mid-week, before a cold front brings scattered showers and storms late week

- Patchy to areas of dense fog possible each morning through at least Tuesday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Today-Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge axis remains draped over the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Aloft, high pressure over the Gulf drifts eastward and over the Florida peninsula into Wednesday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Lower shower and storm chances today, though CAMs suggest isolated development along the sea breeze, generally south of Cape Canaveral, by early this afternoon. This activity is then forecast to move inland into late afternoon, with PoPs around 20% or less. 500 mb temperatures near -10C and dry air aloft could produce a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds to around 45 mph, in addition to locally heavy downpours and lightning strikes. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail through the period.

Light winds during the overnight hours will continue to lead to a risk of patchy to areas of dense fog in the late night and early morning hours through at least Tuesday morning. Commuters should use caution on the roads and be prepared for rapid changes in visibilities. Overnight lows in the 60s. For the daytime hours, daily sea breezes around 10-15 mph at the coast will push inland each afternoon. However, while onshore flow will help to keep coastal areas in the mid-80s, it will provide little relief for interior locations, which are forecast to reach the upper 80s to near 90. These temperatures are around 10-13 degrees above normal and will approach records at a few locations. See the Climate section for more details.

Thursday-Monday...High pressure is nudged eastward into the Atlantic, as a low pressure system over northern New England drags a cold front through the Southeast. The surface cold front is currently forecast to reach north Florida by Thursday evening, then pass southward through the peninsula into early Friday morning. Increased moisture and instability along the front will allow for scattered showers and storms to overspread the local area Thursday, with PoPs 40-60%. A series of upper level shortwaves will maintain a chance of showers into the weekend, despite increasing surface ridging. Brief northerly winds behind the front will once again veer onshore through the period. PoPs 20-40% Friday and Saturday become 40-60% Sunday and Monday, as southerly flow advects additional moisture into the area. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Thursday moderate into the lower to mid-80s for the weekend behind the front. A brief dip into the upper 50s for the normally cooler locations Friday night. Otherwise, lows remain in the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through Wednesday, as high pressure remains in place over the local waters. Mostly dry conditions, with daily 10-15 kt south to southeast sea breezes at the coast. Seas 2-4 ft.

Then, a cold front approaches the area Thursday, bringing higher rain chances and deteriorating boating conditions. There is low confidence in just how poor to hazardous conditions may get, as models are not consistent on timing or wind speeds. However, northerly winds at least 15-20 kts appear likely Thursday night, particularly north of Cape Canaveral. Winds then look to improve into the weekend, as they veer onshore again. Scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 702 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Stratus and patchy fog are overspreading the I-4 corridor and greater Orlando terminals this morning. IFR/MVFR VIS/CIG impacts gradually improve after sunrise through around 13Z/14Z. A surface ridge axis over the region will support light and variable winds, shifting out of the east as the sea breeze develops and move inland this afternoon. VCTS for sea breeze showers and storms from MLB southward. Otherwise, conditions remain mostly dry.

CLIMATE

Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate sites:

Mar 9 Mar 10 Mar 11 Monthly March DAB 87 2024 86 2023 89 1967 92 3/28/1994* LEE 88 2024 87 1974 88 2015 92 3/26/2023* SFB 89 2024 90 1974 88 1974 94 3/20/2003 MCO 90 2024 90 1918 91 1918 97 3/30/1907 MLB 89 2022 90 1964 89 1962 93 3/28/1994 VRB 90 2024 89 2022 88 1986 93 3/31/2020* FPR 90 2022 90 2022 90 1997 93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 85 64 86 64 / 10 0 10 0 MCO 87 67 88 67 / 20 10 10 0 MLB 83 66 83 67 / 20 10 10 0 VRB 84 65 84 65 / 20 0 10 0 LEE 87 64 89 67 / 10 0 20 0 SFB 88 65 89 66 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 88 67 89 67 / 10 10 20 0 FPR 85 64 84 64 / 20 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.