textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

- One more night of significant cold with near record lows and frost/freeze concerns. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for most of east central Florida tonight, except coastal Martin county where a Frost Advisory is posted. - Poor to hazardous boating conditions through tonight then improving during Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

- Temperatures return to near normal values Wednesday, then another cold front brings a chance for showers Thursday followed by cooler/colder than normal conditions into late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Tonight...Sfc high pressure over the north central Gulf will move east and become centered over central FL late tonight. As a result, winds will become very light and allow more of a radiational cooling component. Another widespread freeze is forecast tonight with upper 20s/lower 30s for many areas. There is a chance for Hard Freeze conditions over the normally colder locations of north Lake and interior Volusia as well as southern Osceola/Okeechobee. Portions of the barrier islands, highly urbanized metro Orlando and coastal Martin County are forecast to stay just above the freezing mark. Where it does not freeze, conditions look favorable for areas to widespread frost to form so all areas should continue to protect sensitive plants/vegetation tonight. Given the cold temperatures, another Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all of EC FL except coastal Martin county for apparent temperatures reaching 30 or below. Temperatures will fall very quickly after sunset then forecast model soundings show some cirrus increasing late tonight which could have some thickness and cause temperatures to plateau.

Tue...Dry conditions persist with a slow warming trend as max temps climb into the 60s with light and variable winds due to the proximity of the high pressure center. Temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing Tue night, but patchy frost will be a concern over the interior where min temps fall to the mid to upper 30s. Coastal sections south of the Cape will hold in the mid to upper 40s.

Wed-Mon...(modified) The next cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday and crosses the area early Thursday. We will finally return to seasonable temperatures Wed reaching the low to mid 70s but only for a day. The front will increase rain chances Wed night into Thu morning at 30-50 percent. Any rainfall would be beneficial but amounts look meager, a quarter inch or less. And this is the only chance for rain in the 7-day forecast. Temperatures again turn cooler quickly behind the front Thu-Fri with widespread mins in the mid to upper 30s with a low to moderate chance (20-40%) for another freeze for rural areas NW of I-4 and rural southern Osceola/Okeechobee.

Behind the front, dry conditions prevail late week and this weekend, even as another front is forecast to push through the area. Temperatures look to creep back toward normal this weekend and early next week as the weather pattern shifts away from cold outbreaks for Florida, at least temporarily.

MARINE

Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

High pressure over the north central Gulf this afternoon will move east across central FL tonight and Tue then continue eastward over the SW Atlc. Winds will decrease as the high center approaches and especially as it moves over the local Atlc waters Tue. Seas, however, will be slower to subside esp in the Gulf Stream where 7ft seas will linger into Tue morning then fall below 5 ft by Wed. Offshore (W/SW) flow will increase Wed night 15-20 knots ahead of the next cold front which will cross the local Atlc waters Thu. W/NW winds 15-25 knots behind the front will build seas 7-8 ft in the Gulf Stream, 4-5 ft nearshore. The offshore flow will remain stout through Fri night with hazardous conds in the Gulf Stream. The offshore winds will keep seas more flattened near the coast at 3-4 ft.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 616 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR and continued dry. Northerly winds diminishing and will become light to calm this evening/overnight. Light/variable winds for much of the interior into Tue afternoon thanks to a weak pressure gradient in place, though a weak diffuse ECSB will push inland slowly during the afternoon transitioning winds to a light onshore component.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

High pressure center builds in from the west and settles overhead the FL peninsula tonight through Tuesday. As a result, winds will become light and variable. Min RH values Tuesday will range from 25-35% for most of the area rising to 40-50% over Martin, St Lucie and Indian River counties. Smoke dispersion values will become Poor to Fair Tuesday due to light surface and transport winds.

On Wednesday, high pressure will push seaward as another cold front pushes into the deep South. Winds will increase out of the southwest 10 mph with slightly stronger transport winds. Combined with increased mixing heights, the dispersion will improve to Very Good to Excellent. Min RH values will fall near critical values, around 35% over the interior.

CLIMATE

Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Tuesday, February 3rd: RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS Daytona Beach (DAB) 3-Feb 29 1935 50 Leesburg (LEE) 3-Feb 30 1980 50 Sanford (SFB) 3-Feb 32 1976 51 Orlando (MCO) 3-Feb 24 1917 51 Melbourne (MLB) 3-Feb 35 2021 52 Vero Beach (VRB) 3-Feb 32 1976 53 Fort Pierce (FPR) 3-Feb 26 1917 52

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 30 62 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 33 64 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 31 64 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 31 65 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 32 63 40 72 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 32 64 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 35 64 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 31 66 43 74 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254- 259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347- 447-547-647-747.

Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.