textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Moist airmass will continue high shower/storm chances today (up to 40-60%). Strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall of 2-4" (isolated to 5") possible with any stronger storms.

- Rain chances decrease Sunday (30-50%) and then drier airmass leads to below normal coverage of showers and storms each day into next week.

- A High Risk of rip currents continues today and may persist into Sunday.

- Hot and humid conditions forecast through the weekend into next week. Peak heat index values of 102-107F may reach Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Today-Tonight...Inverted trough will continue to shift west- northwest of the area, with Atlantic ridge axis remaining north of the area. Low level south-southeast flow may still transport showers and isolated storms onshore along the coast, especially south of the Cape this morning. Some isolated showers may also continue near to NW of I-4 through daybreak. A moist airmass will remain in the wake of the trough today, with PW values still ranging from 2.0-2.3" for much of the area. This will continue higher rain chances today (up to 40-70%), with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing through the afternoon and evening as sea breeze boundaries push inland. Greatest coverage of this activity will be focused near to west of I-95 through the I-4 corridor region.

The moist airmass in place and slower storm motion due to weaker southerly steering winds, will continue the threat for locally heavy to excessive rainfall today. Persistent heavier showers and storms will be capable of producing quick rainfall totals of 2-4", with isolated spots to around 5" possible, leading to localized flooding issues. The area remains outlooked in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall today. Some drier air aloft will also begin to work its way into the region, with DCAPE values rising to 800-1000 J/kg. This will continue the threat for strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning from any stronger storms. Convection will gradually wind down through the evening across the interior, with mostly dry conditions overnight.

A little less cloud cover to start today should allow highs to reach more normal values this afternoon, in the low 90s for most locations. These seasonably hot temperatures combined with the humid conditions from the moist airmass in place, will lead to a rise in heat index values today, peaking around 102-107F this afternoon ahead of developing showers and storms. Practicing heat safety will be important with these conditions. Stay hydrated, take plenty of breaks in the A/C and never leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle. Also, if trying to beat the heat by heading to the beach, be aware a High Risk of rip currents continues along the east central Florida coast due to lingering swells.

Sunday...Atlantic ridge axis will begin a southward shift tomorrow, but will largely remain north of the area, with onshore winds out of the east-southeast forecast. Aloft, a mid-level ridge will begin to nudge its way in from the east and combine with the advection of drier air aloft (PW values falling to 1.8-2.0") to lead to a decrease in showers and storms tomorrow. However, still expecting scattered coverage of this activity (PoPs 30-50%) into the afternoon/evening, especially across the interior. Storm threats of frequent lightning, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will continue with any stronger convection. Hot and humid conditions persist, with highs in the low 90s, and potentially reaching the mid 90s northwest of I-4. Peak heat index values still forecast around 102-107F in the afternoon.

Monday-Friday...Ridge aloft continues to build west and across Florida, remaining in place across the region through all of next week. This will lead to continued hot and humid conditions and also combine with drier air moving in aloft to produce below normal storm coverage each day. Afternoon/evening shower and storm chances drop to 20-30% Monday and Tuesday and 20% or less Wednesday-Friday. Atlantic ridge axis shifting southward and eventually south of central FL into mid/late week will also eventually switch prevailing flow offshore, which will put an end to any potential for isolated onshore moving showers during the overnight/early morning hours. With limited breaks from afternoon convection, heat impacts will rise into next week, with highs near to above normal in the low to mid 90s leading to a widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Peak heat index values will continue to solidly reach 102-107F, but for portions of the area could see these values nudge toward Heat Advisory criteria of 108-110F, especially Tuesday onward. Will continue to monitor the need for any Heat Advisories as we head into next week.

MARINE

Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Boating conditions forecast to remain overall favorable this weekend through the middle of next week. Inverted trough will continue to shift west-northwest of the area, with Atlantic ridge axis north of the area gradually shifting back southward and across the waters into early next week. Winds remain onshore, generally out of the SE through the weekend, veering to the S/SE early next week before becoming W/SW Wednesday as ridge axis shifts south. The east coast sea breeze will still develop each afternoon next week, which will still turn winds onshore in the afternoon/evening. Wind speeds are forecast to remain at or below 15 knots, with seas falling from 3-5 feet this morning to 2-4 feet this afternoon, and then 1-3 feet Sunday through Wednesday.

Scattered showers and storms will still be able to develop across the waters lifting north-northwest through this morning. Storms may be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and locally higher seas. Coverage of this activity will then decrease into the afternoon, as a majority of new showers and storms will focus inland across central Florida. Drier air moving into the region will then lead to mostly dry conditions across the waters Sunday into next week. However, should still see periods of isolated showers and storms still developing at times (rain chances mostly 20% or less).

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 617 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Scattered showers and storms are ongoing across the Atlantic this morning, with some of this activity pushing onshore along the coast. Light and variable winds will become south to southeast and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form by early afternoon, turning the winds east to southeast. Scattered showers and storms are forecast to continue to move onshore through the morning, mainly from TIX southward, with additional showers and storms forming near the coast with the formation of the east coast sea breeze in the afternoon. Coverage of showers and storms will then shift westward across the interior and increase as the sea breeze pushes inland this afternoon and evening. Have VCTS starting along the coast at 12 (except for DAB which starts at 17Z with the sea breeze), and starting at 18Z across the interior. Have maintained TEMPOs for MVFR conditions and wind gusts up to 20 KT for the interior sites starting 20/22Z. Have added PROB30 groups for TIX southward starting at 14Z for onshore moving convection. Have not included any TEMPOs or PROB30 groups for DAB at this time, since confidence remains low. Activity will diminish in the evening, with mostly dry conditions overnight. Winds will become light once again in the evening before becoming southeast and increasing to 5-10 KT once again by Sunday mid morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 90 76 91 76 / 60 20 30 0 MCO 93 76 93 76 / 70 30 40 0 MLB 90 77 89 78 / 50 10 30 0 VRB 90 77 90 77 / 40 20 30 0 LEE 91 76 92 77 / 70 40 40 10 SFB 93 76 93 77 / 70 30 40 0 ORL 92 76 93 77 / 70 30 40 0 FPR 90 76 90 77 / 40 20 30 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.