textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 739 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Showers and lightning storms continue this evening as a front moves slowly through the area.

- Temperatures closer to normal Wednesday before increasing late week into the weekend. A moderate rip current risk continues at area beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Currently-Tonight...Weak front will continue to progress slowly southward through the area this afternoon and evening, and is forecast to eventually stall south of Orlando late tonight. Cloud cover has increased along and north of this boundary, with surface temperatures already falling into the upper 70s near to north of Orlando. Already had one severe storm work its way from Seminole County through Orange and northern Brevard counties earlier today, producing gusty winds and hail up to an inch in diameter. Greater instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) currently exists now across the southern half of central FL where greater daytime heating has occurred, and this may therefore lead to a better potential for stronger storm development across this region for the remainder of the afternoon/evening. However, still can't rule out strong to isolated severe storms anywhere across east central FL through this evening.

Primary threats continue to be frequent lightning strikes, strong to locally damaging wind gusts to 40-60 mph and hail up to 1 inch in diameter. However, a low threat still exists for a brief tornado or two with increasing 0-3km helicity of 100-200 m2/s2 and potential for multiple boundary interactions. Additionally, locally heavy to potentially excessive rainfall will remain a concern. 12Z HREF probabilities showing a 40-50% chance for rainfall of 5+ inches, mainly along the Volusia County coast through this evening and maybe extended some into the overnight. Otherwise, storms are generally expected to produce a quick 1-3 inches of rainfall. With the ongoing drought these rainfall totals should largely be beneficial, but any higher totals, especially should any exceed 5 inches in a short period of time may lead to localized flash flooding. A Marginal Risk (at least 5% chance) for Excessive Rainfall remains in place across much of east central FL focused near to east of Orlando.

Wednesday...The surface front is forecast to linger near Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast on Wednesday. PW values around 1.6- 1.8" look to linger through tomorrow, keeping rain chances elevated to 50-70%. However, the greatest potential for afternoon/evening showers and storms will be focused across southern portions of east central Florida closer to the front. The severe threat lowers into Wednesday, but a few strong storms will still be possible, especially from Brevard County southward. Main threats will be strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph, small hail, frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Highs remain closer to normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure builds over the area late this week and remains through at least early next week. This helps establish onshore flow, especially by the weekend. A warming trend is forecast with temperatures reaching the low 90s inland from Saturday onward. By Monday next week, heat indices begin to approach the mid/upper 90s. Mostly dry conditions forecast into late week, with rain chances 10-20%. Then a gradual increase in moisture within the onshore flow will raise rain chances slightly, but still relatively low (~20-30%), focused along the coast early in the day and translating inland with the afternoon sea breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 346 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Tonight-Wednesday...Front pushing slowly southward across the area this afternoon will stall across the waters, south of the Cape, tonight into Wednesday. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will exist, primarily north of this boundary, with east-northeast winds 15-20 knots building seas to 6-8 feet late this afternoon into tonight. Moved up start time of the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the offshore Volusia County waters to 5PM and then expanded the SCA to the nearshore Volusia County waters and offshore Brevard County waters at 8PM. While winds gradually diminish late tonight into tomorrow, poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger into Wednesday as seas will be slower to subside.

Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and storms, some which may be strong to severe, will continue to be the primary hazard to boaters through this afternoon and evening. Additional scattered offshore moving storms are then forecast again into Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a few stronger storms still possible.

Thursday-Sunday...Front shifts south into late week, with shower and lightning storm chances decreasing. N/NW winds up to 10-15 knots Thursday morning become onshore by the afternoon. High pressure building southward through the Southeast U.S. and offshore then keeps winds onshore through Friday and into the weekend, with speeds up to 10-15 knots. Seas will diminish from 3-5 feet Thursday to 2-4 feet through the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 739 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Lingering SHRA/TSRA from earlier strong to severe storms is forecast to diminish over the next few hours. Then, MVFR CIGs are expected to prevail overnight from MLB northward, with a front stalled along the Treasure Coast. CIGs lift from south to north from around 12-15Z, as winds increase to 8-12 kts from the west. Additional scattered showers and storms, a few strong, are then forecast after 18-20Z, with TEMPOs possible in later updates. Winds along the coast become NE/ENE behind the sea breeze after around 20Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 70 84 68 86 / 70 50 20 10 MCO 71 85 70 86 / 50 60 20 10 MLB 73 86 72 85 / 60 60 20 10 VRB 72 87 70 85 / 70 60 30 20 LEE 70 85 68 87 / 40 50 20 0 SFB 70 86 68 88 / 50 50 20 10 ORL 71 85 70 87 / 50 60 20 10 FPR 72 86 70 85 / 70 70 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ572.