textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

- A Wind ADVISORY remains in effect through early this morning along the coast where wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Breezy to windy conditions will then continue through this afternoon.

- High surf and numerous rip currents will exist at area beaches today. Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions will also continue today, with poor to hazardous boating conditions tonight.

- Much cooler temperatures today, with highs in the 60s, but a gradual warm-up will then occur through the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Currently-Tonight...Cold front has shifted south of the area, with a strong N/NE wind surge in its wake. This is leading to breezy/windy conditions that will continue into today. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM this morning for the coastal areas east of I-95. Gusts up to 35-40 mph have already been observed along the coast and gusts up to 35 mph will continue to be possible through early this morning. Winds will decrease slightly into late morning and afternoon as pressure gradient begins to relax from high pressure building in behind the front. However, NE winds will still be breezy up to 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph will still be possible.

These gusty winds will also lead to dangerous beach conditions, with a high risk for rip currents, and large breaking waves of 7-9 feet producing rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion at area beaches. A High Surf Advisory continues along the coast through 7 PM this evening. A Rip Current Statement for the high risk of rip currents also continues today into tonight.

Marine stratocu leading to cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will continue to push onshore across much of the area. Isolated showers and sprinkles will be possible with this cloud cover, with greatest potential for measurable rainfall along the coast where rain chances around 20-30 percent are forecast. A few onshore moving showers will continue into tonight, with cloud cover breaking up some, but still remaining partly cloudy.

While colder air is currently building in behind the front across north Florida, low level winds are quickly veering onshore and will keep temperatures from dropping as low as they will northwest of the area early this morning. Temperatures near daybreak this morning are forecast to get as low the mid to upper 40s northwest of I-4, and 50s to low 60s across much of the rest of the region. Clouds and breezy NE winds will keep highs several degrees cooler than normal, in the 60s, and lows tonight will again drop into the mid to upper 40s NW of I-4 and into the 50s for much of the rest of east central Florida.

Tuesday-Wednesday...High pressure across the Southeast U.S. will shift offshore into Tuesday, with ridge axis remaining north of the area. This will continue an onshore flow through midweek, but winds will be lower around 10 mph Tuesday and 5-10 mph Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions should largely prevail, but may still see some isolated showers that can push onshore, mainly into Wednesday. A gradual warm-up will occur, with highs rising to the low 70s Tuesday and mid 70s for much of the area Wednesday.

Thursday-Sunday...High pressure over the Atlantic shifts east as a weakening cold front moves through the southeast U.S. and eventually across central Florida Friday. A gradual warm-up will persist through late week, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday, and morning lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows are then forecast to fall as low as the low to mid 50s over the interior Friday night behind the front. However, winds quickly veer back onshore into the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday still above normal in the mid 70s to low 80s. Low end rain chances (~20%) exist Thursday into Thursday night for isolated shower development well ahead of the approaching front. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions forecast Friday and into the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Currently-Tonight...Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions will continue across the waters, as a strong north-northeast breeze behind a cold front builds seas up to 8-11 feet nearshore and up to 10-13 feet offshore this morning. A Gale Warning continues for the Volusia County waters through 7 AM this morning for frequent gusts to 35 knots, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) persists across the Brevard County and Treasure Coast waters where occasional gusts to gale force will still be possible. A SCA will then continue across the entire waters today through this evening, as northeast winds gradually decrease from 20-25 knots this morning to 15-20 knots toward mid to late afternoon.

Winds will continue to diminish overnight to 10-15 knots out of the E/NE, but seas will remain up to 7-8 feet, mainly over the Gulf Stream waters where the SCA will remain in place.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the waters through today into tonight, pushing toward the southwest.

Tuesday-Friday...High pressure across the Southeast U.S. will build offshore Tuesday, with ridge axis remaining north of the area through midweek. This will continue onshore winds across the waters with wind speeds up to 10-15 knots Tuesday-Wednesday. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue into Tuesday, as swells will maintain seas up to 5-7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will continue for the Gulf Stream waters through at least Tuesday morning, but may need to be extended further into the afternoon for the offshore Brevard County and Treasure Coast waters. Boating conditions then become more favorable into Wednesday as seas fall to 3-5 feet.

Winds veer S/SE Thursday and then W/SW Thursday night before a weak cold front moves through the waters Friday, switching winds to the N/NW. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 knots through late week, with seas 3-4 feet Thursday and building back to 3-5 feet Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the waters for much of this week, with isolated storms possible mainly over the gulf stream into Thursday night ahead of the approaching weak front.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 609 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Inland, the boundary layer was able to decouple last night, letting surface winds settle to less than 10 kts at times, just below low-level wind shear criteria. Expect northeast winds to increase to around 15 kts with gusts 25-30 kts by around 14Z. Along the coast wind gusts 30-35 kts continue early this morning, which should ease a little in late morning to around 15 kts with gusts 25-30 kts as well. Across the board winds will gradually diminish after 18Z or so, becoming light northerly late tonight.

So far the BKN marine strato-cu along the coast has been able to stay mainly at or above 035, but has dropped to MVFR at times particularly at KVRB-KSUA where higher moisture in fresh onshore flow is also supporting light to moderate showers that have occasionally reduced VIS to 3SM or less. This cloud deck is forecast to overspread the area through the day, possibly producing briefly MVFR CIGs at the inland terminals, but remain mainly VFR. Additional showers could develop over the Atlantic waters to the north, moving onshore near the remaining coastal terminals, but chances not high enough for mention at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 51 69 55 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 63 51 72 56 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 65 55 72 60 / 20 20 10 0 VRB 68 56 72 59 / 20 20 10 0 LEE 62 46 71 52 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 63 50 72 54 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 63 50 71 55 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 68 55 73 59 / 20 20 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.