textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Late night/early morning fog will continue to be possible over the next several days, with locally dense fog possible.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures forecast to continue through Christmas and into the weekend.

- A strong cold front is forecast to move through the area Monday night, ushering in colder than normal conditions through New Year's Eve/New Year's Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Tonight-Friday...High pressure centered across the northern Gulf coast will gradually slide southward and remain in place across the eastern Gulf into late week. This will keep winds relatively light, around 5-10 mph during the day and 5 mph or less during the night. Winds will generally be out of the N/NW on Christmas Day, backing to the W/NW on Friday. Isolated light showers will continue across the coastal waters tonight through tomorrow, but otherwise it will remain dry over land, with rain chances remaining out of the forecast. Temperatures generally remain above normal, with highs in the upper 70s and overnight lows in 50s for most locations.

Main potential weather hazard will be late night/early morning fog producing localized visibilities of a half mile or less, due to lighter winds and mostly clear skies. There isn't a lot of good agreement between the model guidance on which locations are favored over others for this fog development across east central Florida, with greater potential for fog development north and west of the area. Therefore have just mentioned patchy fog in the forecast across all of east central Florida tonight and Friday night.

Saturday-Sunday...Forecast changes little into the weekend, with high pressure building eastward across the area, keeping lighter winds, dry conditions and above normal temperatures in the forecast. Highs will reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees each day, and lows Saturday and Sunday nights will fall into the 50s. Patchy/areas of fog will continue to be a concern during the overnight and early morning hours.

Monday-Wednesday...A strong cold front will approach the area Monday, with the latest model guidance showing this boundary pushing through the area Monday night. Highs are forecast to remain above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday ahead of the front. Temperatures then plummet through the middle of next week, with highs dropping into the 60s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows by Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the low to mid 50s, except mid to upper 40s NW of I-4, but then turn even colder for Tuesday night and also Wednesday night for the New Year's Eve nighttime festivities. NBM guidance and official forecast currently has min temps in the 40s for much of the area both Tuesday and Wednesday nights, but mid to upper 30s are forecast for normally colder interior locations, such as rural areas south of Orlando and northwest of the I-4 corridor.

Overall mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue, with better potential for any isolated to scattered showers across the waters ahead of and behind the frontal passage into Monday night through midweek.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

High pressure across the northern Gulf coast will shift gradually south and eastward across the area through late week and into the weekend. This will keep generally favorable boating conditions in place for the next several days. N/NW winds on Christmas Day will back to a more offshore direction late week into the weekend, with winds speeds mostly below 15 knots. Seas around 3-5 feet tonight will drop to 2-4 feet tomorrow and Friday, increasing back to 3-5 feet Saturday briefly before falling back to 2-4 feet on Sunday.

Boating conditions deteriorate into Sunday night, becoming poor to hazardous into early next week as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the waters Monday night. Offshore winds increase up to 15-20 knots offshore late Sunday night into Monday, with seas building to 4-6 feet. Winds then become N/NW behind the front into Monday night, increasing further up to 20-25 knots and building seas to 6-9 feet.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1216 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Blanket of clouds BKN-OVC050-060 across I-4 appearing to be breaking up, but additional cloud-cover northward that may filter south into these areas. Models have not handled this well. Keeping with inherited forecast with TEMPO groups 09-12Z for patchy fog (MVFR) potential, but confidence remains low as with last night. Will continue to monitor if amendments necessary. With high pressure over the area the pressure gradient remains weak. Generally light NWRLY drainage flow to calm winds thru sunrise. Winds continue light into Christmas Day with some kind of offshore to variable component, generally below 10 kts. Expect winds to veer onshore (NNE) along the coast later in the afternoon with weak sea breeze appearance. Otherwise, VFR and dry conditions prevail. Models hinting at higher chances for FG Christmas night into Fri morning (after 06Z on the 26th).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 55 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 79 58 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 77 57 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 78 56 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 79 55 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 79 56 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 79 57 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 78 55 78 54 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.