textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions are forecast across east central Florida through at least the middle of this week. Heading to the beach and entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding, moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents, and Gale conditions are forecast over the next several days.

- Scattered onshore-moving showers are forecast over the next several days, with the highest rain chances focused along the coast. Minor flooding cannot be ruled out due to repeated rounds of showers and the potential for training bands of showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Today-Tonight...Onshore-moving showers that developed during the early morning hours will continue through much of today, with strong northeasterly winds helping to push activity far inland. Rain chances range between 30-70%, highest along the Treasure Coast and across the local Atlantic waters. The entire coast remains outlooked in at least a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall today, with portions of the Treasure Coast included in a Slight Risk (2/4). This is due to the potential for repeated rounds of showers throughout the day along with the possibility for some training bands to develop due to the persistent northeasterly flow. Rainfall totals reaching 2-3" will be possible, with locally higher amounts not able to be ruled out, especially along the coast. Isolated storm development will also be possible with activity, though confidence remains low (20-30%). Any storms that do manage to develop may be capable of producing occasional lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 45 mph, and heavy downpours. Activity is anticipated to continue into the overnight hours, though coverage will likely decrease some beyond 8 PM.

Strong high pressure remains situated north of Florida while to the south, a stalled boundary stays draped across the Bahamas, with both features helping to maintain a tight pressure gradient across Florida. The resulting northeasterly winds will be breezy to windy today, with wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect along all coastal zones of east central Florida through 8 PM, where the windiest conditions are forecast today. Beyond 8 PM, it remains to be seen whether east central Florida will continue to hit advisory criteria, with guidance diverging a bit on how strong wind gusts will be into the overnight hours. This will continue to be closely monitored and extensions in time cannot be ruled out.

At the beaches, coastal conditions will remain hazardous due to the persistent northeast flow and resulting building seas. Large, breaking waves of 6 to 11 feet are forecast today along with a high risk of rip currents. The rough surf combined with long period swells will increase the risk for moderate to major beach erosion along the coast, and a High Surf Advisory is in effect for all of the east central Florida coast. Additionally, high astronomical tides continue today, with guidance suggesting that coastal flooding will be more significant today compared to yesterday. This has resulted in an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Warning starting today for the entire coast, with the greatest risk of flooding anticipated during times of high tide (5-7 AM/PM). Overall, conditions along the east central Florida coast will be hazardous and heading to the beaches and out into the ocean is strongly discouraged.

Monday-Tuesday...Little change is anticipated relative to the overall synoptic pattern driving the prolonged dangerous beach and marine conditions across east central Florida. The pressure gradient will remain tight across the peninsula as the area stays wedged between strong surface high pressure north of the state and a stalled boundary draped across the Bahamas. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph are forecast, with the strongest values forecast along the coast. These breezy and gusty northeast winds will maintain high wave heights, which will result in a number of beach hazards along the east central Florida coast. The rough, pounding surf with breaking waves of 7 to 12 feet combined with long period swells will support moderate to major beach erosion and a high risk of rip currents. The High Surf Advisory and the Rip Current Statement have been extended through Tuesday. Additionally, these hazardous, wind-driven surf conditions coincide with a period of high astronomical tides, which will further exacerbate coastal conditions and increase the potential of coastal flooding. Minor to moderate coastal flooding along the east central Florida coast is forecast, and the Coastal Flood Warning now continues through Tuesday. The greatest threat will be during times of high tide, which are approximately between 5-7 AM/PM. Heading to the beach will be hazardous over the next several days, and entering the ocean is not advised.

The persistent northeast flow will advect moisture towards the Florida peninsula through early this week, supporting continued development of onshore-moving showers. The highest rain chances are forecast along the coast primarily east of I-95 on Monday and then primarily from the Cape southward along the coast on Tuesday. Due to the repeated rounds of showers and the potential for training band development with activity, WPC maintains portions of the Treasure Coast in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. Storm chances remain low on Monday (10%), but increase slightly into Tuesday (20-30%). Any storms that do manage to develop are anticipated to remain isolated, with lightning strikes and gusty winds potential hazards. Temperatures are forecast to remain seasonable in the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the upper 60s across the interior north of the I-4 corridor and range in the low to mid 70s elsewhere.

Wednesday-Saturday...The broad low pressure along the stalled boundary draped across the Bahamas is forecast to meander across the western Atlantic, though there continues to be some disagreement on the placement and evolution of the low through the extended period. Trends have shifted more towards a solution that has the boundary eventually washing out as the low weakens, leaving behind a plume of moisture across the Florida peninsula. The high to the north of Florida looks to gradually shift eastward and eventually offshore, with another surface high from the Great Lakes region shifting eastward to replace it. Overall, little change is anticipated relative to the broad pattern across east central Florida, with persistent breezy northeast flow maintaining hazardous beach and boating conditions. Onshore-moving showers are forecast to persist mid to late week, with the highest rain chances remaining focused along the coast. A low chance for storm development will also continue across the local waters and primarily along the coast. Temperatures are forecast to remain seasonable and near-normal values for this time of year.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Dangerous boating conditions persist across the local Atlantic waters as the area remains wedged between strengthening high pressure to the north and a stalled boundary to the south. Northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots and gusts up to 35 knots are anticipated to continue through early this week, with Gale Warnings expanding to include all legs of the local waters beginning at 8 AM today. These will continue through at least Monday across all legs and will then focus across the Gulf Stream waters into Tuesday. Additional extensions in time may be needed. With these windy and gusty conditions across the waters, seas are forecast to continue building locally, ranging between 7 to 15 feet through early this week. Conditions across the local waters will be slow to improve, with hazardous to dangerous conditions anticipated to persist through much of the week.

Rain chances are forecast to remain medium to high (40-70%) through the forecast period across the local waters due to the persistent northeast winds and some moist air present. Isolated storm development cannot be ruled out with activity at times, though chances remain low (20-40%).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 112 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

NNE/NE winds across the interior 10-12 kts with gusts up to 18-20 kts thru early morning. Along the coast it will remain breezy to windy, with wind speeds either remaining or increasing to around 15- 20 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts (potentially up to 35 kts at times, esp in onshore-moving squalls). Winds increase areawide out of the NE to 18-22 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts; up to 35 kts at times along the coast and possibly higher with onshore-moving showers on Sun. Gusty SCT-NMRS onshore-moving showers are forecast through Sun, with a slight chance for lightning storms. Have kept VCSH for much of the forecast period, with some tempo MVFR conditions at times as activity pushes onto the coast and further inland as confidence allows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 69 80 70 / 60 70 50 10 MCO 82 70 82 70 / 30 30 30 0 MLB 82 70 82 71 / 60 40 20 20 VRB 83 70 83 71 / 70 50 30 30 LEE 81 66 81 66 / 30 30 20 0 SFB 82 69 82 69 / 50 40 30 0 ORL 83 70 82 70 / 40 30 30 0 FPR 82 70 83 71 / 70 50 40 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ555-575.

Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572.