textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 310 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Locally dense fog reducing visibility to less than a mile at times is occurring in portions of East Central Florida this morning Use caution on the roads.

- A shower or two are possible Sunday as a weak front pushes through, but otherwise dry and warmer than normal conditions persist into mid-week.

- Another front is forecast to arrive on Thanksgiving Day, but there is uncertainty how much, if rain will accompany the front, and when cooler temperatures settle in.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Today-Tonight...The upper level pattern over the Central to Eastern US begins to amplify, building a trough down the East Coast and ridging over the South Central US. Surface high pressure over the Florida is shunted south ahead of an approaching weak front, shifting light and variable early morning winds offshore later in the morning across the north, but remaining light and shifty to the south between a loose pressure gradient and a weak east coast sea breeze developing in the afternoon. Early morning conditions once again are favorable for patchy fog that could become locally dense and reduce visibility to less than a mile, with the highest chances dense fog reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less generally extending from Osceola, Okeechobee, and Brevard counties into portions of their adjacent counties. Not the greatest confidence in evolution, and will need to monitor the whole area for visibility reductions, and may need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory before the morning is out. Fog should burn off by 9 AM at the latest, with quiet but warm conditions the rest of the day. Seasonably cool lows in the U50s-L60s will climb into the M-U80s, within a few degrees of daily high temperature records for a couple spots. A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues at the beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone.

Sunday-Monday...A quick moving upper level pattern will drive a couple of weak frontal passages. The amplifying trough over the eastern seaboard will push a weak cool front into the area Sunday then wash out as the trough slides offshore. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface right on the heals of trough/front moves overhead Monday, lifting the residual frontal boundary back north as a warm front. Cooling will be minimal, only a few degrees shaved off daytime temperatures with afternoon highs remaining above normal in the U70s-L80s. Morning lows continue to climb well above normal from the U50s-L60s Sunday morning to the L-M60s Monday morning, as winds quickly shift from westerly Sunday to easterly Monday. A little bit of additional low-level moisture delivered by the front could support some light showers, but otherwise dry conditions persist. Fog will be possible near the front Sunday morning, and perhaps again Monday morning depending how much is left of the boundary.

Tuesday-Friday...The ridge aloft will have already pushed offshore the eastern seaboard by Tuesday morning, then the upper level pattern slows down a bit mid week as multiple lobes of upper level energy consolidate into a broad, deep trough over the Central to Eastern US mid to late week. While the surface high pressure will have pushed offshore into the western Atlantic ahead of a cold front associated with a large low pressure system developing in response to the trough, the cold front is expected to stall a bit across the Southeast, keeping us tenuously under the influence of the surface high as the tail of the ridge axis extends to Florida. High pressure building behind the front is expected to push the boundary into Central Florida on Thanksgiving, and south of the area by Friday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast for Tuesday, but rain chances Wednesday and Thursday remain uncertain. Both the ECM and GFS are showing notable moisture return ahead of the front mid to late week, much more for the ECM than 24 hours ago. Had a slight uptick in rain chances Wednesday, but most notably ECM MOS PoPs for Thanksgiving have jumped from around 10-20% in the previous 12Z guidance to 20-40% in the current 00Z guidance. GFS MOS PoPs have held relatively consistent at 30-50%, but there was shift to earlier in the morning. The jumping around doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, so for the official forecast opted to blend 01Z NBM/12Z MOS into the previous forecast, and will see how the next 12 to 24 hours trend. Better agreement on temperatures, with very warm conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, then on Thanksgiving seasonably cool temperatures for northern half of the area while the southern half stays warm. More notable cool weather arrives Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 310 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions. High pressure over Florida and the local Atlantic waters continues to shift south ahead of an approaching weak front, which is expected to quietly push through the area Sunday. A quick moving area of high pressure behind the front reaches the eastern US Monday and pushes offshore Tuesday, lifting the residual frontal boundary back north as a warm in the process. Florida and the local waters remain tenuously under the influence the departing high until a late week cold front passage.

Winds will be fairly shifty through the period between sea breezes and fronts coming and going, but generally speaking, offshore winds today and most of Sunday shift offshore Monday, then southerly Tuesday and Wednesday at 5-15 kts. Some light showers are possible over the Atlantic waters, with the highest chances (such as they are at around 10-20%) Sunday onward as the weak front delivers a bit of low-level moisture. Lightning storms and heavy showers are currently not forecast. Seas 1-3 ft today through Monday build to 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Fog will continue to produce IFR/MVFR conditions, with some areas of LIFR conditions, mainly near to southeast of the I-4 corridor through Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast through early this morning. Any fog should lift and diminish by 14Z, with VFR conditions then forecast through the remainder of the day and into the evening. However, patchy/areas of fog will redevelop after midnight tonight and will again lead to IFR/MVFR conditions with some localized LIFR conditions possible. Difficult to determine where greatest coverage of fog will set up tonight, so for now have added tempo windows starting around 9Z for 3SM vis at all TAF sites.

Winds will remain mostly light and variable, with east coast sea breeze increasing winds out of the E/NE to around 7-8 knots in the afternoon, mainly from KTIX southward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 82 63 80 62 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 83 63 83 63 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 81 62 80 64 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 82 60 81 63 / 0 0 10 10 LEE 83 63 82 60 / 0 10 10 10 SFB 83 63 82 62 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 83 64 82 63 / 0 10 10 10 FPR 82 59 81 63 / 0 0 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ045-053- 154-247-254-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.