textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will persist into at least Saturday and likely into Sunday with elevated wave heights, a high risk of rip currents, and rough, pounding surf continuing. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- A taste of fall is in store for the rest of the week and into early next week, as drier and somewhat cooler conditions gradually filter down the peninsula.

- Rain and storm chances return to the forecast from Tuesday onward as moisture begins to increase once again across the area, with a slight trend upward in temperatures towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Through Tonight...A mid-level cutoff low paired with a developing nor'easter just off the coast of the Carolinas at the surface continues to slowly drift northward, with the attendant cold front draped across the Atlantic and angled across south Florida, where it has also slowly drifted southward today. Locally, breezy northeast winds persist behind the front around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times, highest along the coast. Isolated to scattered shower development also continues across the local Atlantic waters. A few light, isolated showers have managed to develop and push onshore along the immediate coast today and this activity is expected to continue over the next few hours with the greatest rain chances (20%) focused along the coast south of the Cape. Elsewhere, conditions across east central Florida have remained mostly dry today as a drier air mass settles across the area. The GOES19 Total PWAT viewer shows PWAT values as low as 1.1" in some spots north of the I-4 corridor. This drier air will continue to settle across the area through the evening and overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions forecast through tonight as the northerly winds slacken to around 10 mph. There remains a low chance (20%) of shower activity along the Treasure Coast overnight. Temperatures remain on track to peak in the low to mid 80s this afternoon, falling into the 60s tonight. The coolest overnight temperatures will be focused near and north of the I-4 corridor, remaining in the upper 60s along the coast.

Hazardous beach conditions continue along the east central Florida coast. Breaking waves of 4 to 9 feet and a high risk of rip currents will continue through the remainder of today and into the overnight hours. A High Surf Advisory continues through at least 4 AM Sunday. While entering the ocean already is not advised at night, with these surf conditions, entering the ocean is strongly discouraged.

Saturday-Monday...While the nor'easter continues northward into the Mid Atlantic and New England area this weekend and into early next week, broad surface high pressure is anticipated to slowly build across the Florida peninsula as drier air settles locally. PWATs are forecast to fall into the 1-1.2" range areawide, with little to no rain and storm chances anticipated through this weekend and into next week. Some lingering breezy northerly winds will persist into Saturday, highest along the coast, before diminishing and becoming light and variable Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are anticipated to remain seasonable through the weekend, ranging between the low to mid 80s each afternoon, warming slightly into the mid to upper 80s on Monday. Lows in the 60s persist.

While the weather will be pleasant through this weekend, conditions at the beaches are anticipated to remain poor to hazardous. Persistent breezy and gusty northeast winds the last couple of days have resulted in building seas that will be slow to subside through the weekend and into early next week. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated through at least Saturday, though it will likely continue into Sunday as well. Breaking waves of 3 to 6 feet will also persist, so rough, hazardous surf will also be present. Overall, entering the ocean is strongly discouraged this weekend.

Tuesday-Thursday...While the mid-level cutoff low near the Mid Atlantic and northeastern US continues lifting northward and weakens, another mid-level trough is forecast to move towards the southeast US and the Florida peninsula. The trough is expected to drift southward, reaching the eastern Gulf mid to late week. At the surface, broad high pressure across the Atlantic is anticipated to lift northward, with guidance hinting at some sort of disturbance developing in the Gulf and lifting northwestward, potentially resulting in a boundary lifting northward across the Florida peninsula. This set-up would result in increasing moisture locally, aided by initially southeast winds on Tuesday that become more onshore Wednesday onward. A return of rain and storm chances to east central Florida is forecast, with PoPs near to slightly above normal. While it is too early to pin down exact storm threats, the typical lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours all look to be reasonable hazards with activity. It is important to note that there remains some discrepancies between guidance, so shifts and adjustments to rain and storm chances are likely as models come into better agreement and the timing becomes clearer. The increasing moisture will result in slightly warmer temperatures, with highs and lows near to slightly above normal through the extended.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to continue tonight through Sunday thanks to persistent breezy northerly winds causing seas to build across the local Atlantic waters. Wind speeds of 15 to 25 knots are forecast through the remainder of this evening, with wind gusts up to 30 knots at times. Seas peak between 6 to 12 feet, highest across the Gulf Stream waters. By Saturday, winds slacken to around 15 knots, with seas slowly subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Further weakening of the winds to 5 to 10 knots will finally allow seas to subside to 3 to 5 feet by the end of Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all legs of the local Atlantic waters through 11 AM on Saturday, continuing across the Gulf Stream waters through at least 4 AM Sunday. Extensions in time across portions of the Gulf Stream will likely be needed through Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will remain possible through Saturday, with drier air settling areawide by Sunday.

Looking into next week, boating conditions are forecast to be favorable once again. Winds are forecast to remain generally below 15 knots and seas range between 2 to 4 feet. Dry conditions persist into Monday, with rain and storm chances returning to the forecast once again from Tuesday onward as a disturbance in the Gulf leads to increasing moisture locally.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Cloud bases continue to slowly rise, with the only prevailing MVFR CIGs at DAB. And this should improve to VFR by 20Z. Have inserted a TEMPO for BKN035 at the other sites through mid afternoon. Maintained VCSH at the coast until 00Z or so. Gusty north winds near 25 knots at the coast (closer to 20 knots interior) will subside with sunset. Winds decrease to 10 kt or less tonight with VFR conds through Sat. A little less north wind Sat but remaining gusty 15-20 knots along the coast.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The St. Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is forecast to continue to rise, cresting on Sunday at 2.8 feet due to an ongoing period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels are forecast to remain steady thereafter.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Last date the temperature was below 70 degrees (F) this year at select sites:

DAB: June 8th (67 deg) LEE: June 8th (68 deg) SFB: June 8th (67 deg) MCO: June 8th (69 deg) MLB: June 8th (68 deg) VRB: June 11th (69 deg) FPR: June 11th (69 deg)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 66 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 66 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 70 83 68 84 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 70 84 67 84 / 20 0 0 0 LEE 65 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 65 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 66 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 69 84 66 84 / 20 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.