textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Patchy, locally dense fog will continue to be possible across portions of east central Florida late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast through midweek, with isolated showers possible, mainly along the Treasure Coast. - A stronger cold front then moves through early on Thanksgiving, leading to cooler than normal temperatures and hazardous boating conditions late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Through Tuesday...A stalled front near the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee will linger across the area into tonight. The boundary is then forecast to lift northward Tuesday away from the forecast area, as surface high pressure drifts offshore the the southeastern US coastline. A few showers continue just offshore from the Treasure Coast early this afternoon and will remain possible, mainly over the Atlantic waters, into tonight. PoPs around 20-30% for coastal St Lucie and Martin Counties, though most areas will remain dry, with PoPs below 15%. Patchy fog is once again expected late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Models suggest the greatest threat for fog looks to be across the interior, especially north and west of I-4. Fog may become dense at times, with visibilities below 1 mile. Use caution during the Tuesday morning commute. Overnight low temperatures are forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Any fog and low clouds that develop near or prior to sunrise are forecast to lift through mid-morning. East- northeast winds today veer southeasterly Tuesday, as high pressure moves into the western Atlantic, though winds look to remain around 10 mph or less. NBM guidance remains too dry, despite global models and CAMs supporting at least an isolated chance for a few showers over the Atlantic waters and near the Treasure Coast. Thus, have nudged forecast PoPs a bit higher than NBM, with PoPs around 20%. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail. High temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal in the lower 80s.

Wednesday-Thursday...Low pressure moves eastward through the upper Midwest and Canada mid-week, dragging a stronger surface cold front through the Deep South. This boundary is forecast to reach the Florida peninsula Wednesday night, then pass southward through east central Florida through Thanksgiving. Southwesterly winds ahead of the front will make Wednesday afternoon the warmest of the week. High temperatures are forecast to be between 5-7 degrees above average in the lower to mid-80s. Mostly dry conditions prevail, though slightly higher moisture (PWATs near 1.5") is forecast to advect into southern portions of the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. Thus, a few showers will once again be possible along the Treasure Coast, with PoPs near 20%.

The frontal passage itself is forecast to be mostly dry, with the highest PoPs (20-40%) along and offshore from the Treasure Coast. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, mainly over the Gulf Stream waters. Northerly winds behind the front will increase to around 10-15 mph by Thursday afternoon, with gusts up to 20 mph along the coast. Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the area, leading to quite the temperature gradient across the CWA. Areas along and north of the I-4 corridor are expected to struggle to reach the mid-70s, while the Space and Treasure Coasts warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows Thursday night will also be noticeably cooler, with 40s for most areas, while coastal locations remain in the 50s.

Friday-Sunday...High pressure builds across the southeastern US late week and into the weekend. A tight pressure gradient will lead to breezy northerly winds Friday becoming onshore into the weekend, with winds 15-20 mph and gusts 20-25 mph. Colder, drier air will lead to high temperatures in the 60s for most locations across east central Florida Friday afternoon, with the exception of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, which looks to remain in the lower 70s. As winds veer onshore, PWATs increase each day and nearer to normal high temperatures return by Sunday. Cooler temperatures in the mid-40s to mid-50s linger Friday night for much of the area, before returning to the mid-60s Monday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1243 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rest of Today-Wednesday...A weak front stalled near the Treasure Coast will wash out into tonight, before lifting north of the area Tuesday. A few showers continue along the boundary early this afternoon and will remain possible offshore from the Treasure Coast into Wednesday. East-northeast winds today will veer southeast Tuesday and southwest Wednesday, as high pressure over the Southeast US drifts offshore into the Atlantic. Generally favorable boating conditions persist, with winds around 10 kts or less and seas 2-3 ft.

Wednesday Night-Saturday...A stronger cold front is forecast move through the local Atlantic waters Wednesday night into Thursday. Behind the front, northerly winds are expected to increase to 20-25 kts by Thursday afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions look to continue into the weekend, veering progressively onshore each day, as high pressure builds into the area and the pressure gradient remains tight. Hazardous boating conditions are forecast, as seas build up to 6-8 ft, especially in the Gulf Stream. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed by the afternoon on Thanksgiving.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Patchy to locally dense fog development will be possible across the terminals once again early this morning, with the best chances focused across MCO, ISM, and SFB. IFR VIS reductions will be possible at times, with a TEMPO in effect from 10-13Z. Drop to MVFR VIS at DAB after 10Z. Lower confidence in fog near the remaining terminals, but will continue to monitor closely. Conditions are forecast to improve near to shortly after sunrise. Winds remain light and variable through early morning, picking up out of the SE after 13Z. VCSH possible at FPR and SUA, but confidence remains low. Light and variable winds are forecast once again tonight into Wednesday, and another night of patchy fog will be possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 82 63 82 60 / 10 10 0 10 MCO 84 63 84 63 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 81 65 82 65 / 10 10 0 10 VRB 82 64 83 64 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 83 63 83 59 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 84 64 83 61 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 83 65 83 63 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 82 64 83 63 / 20 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.