textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- From today through the weekend, there is a 30-50% chance of mainly afternoon and evening storms over the interior. Wind gusts to 40-45 mph, brief torrential rain, and occasional lightning will accompany the strongest storms.

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists through the weekend. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged!

- Continued above-normal temperatures, even at night. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk through Memorial Day Weekend. This affects those sensitive to heat or without cooling or hydration.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida remains beneath slightly above-normal H5 heights this morning. Subtle ridging extends along the Eastern Seaboard to the Gulf, with a weak mid-level low centered east of the Bahamas. Upstream, the subtropical jet is active from Baja California to the Rio Grande Valley. Individual disturbances embedded in this jet segment are expected to bring copious rainfall from Texas to the Tennessee Valley over the next few days. However, the active weather associated with this energy should stay well northwest of Florida.

The overall pattern looks quite stagnant through at least Tuesday. A nearby mid-level ridge should remain the main player in our weather as it situates over the W Atlantic. The near-surface high pressure axis should remain north of the local area, ensuring continued E to SE flow off the Atlantic. Ensemble-averaged PW values are forecast to be near to at times slightly above normal through the middle of next week.

By late next week and into the following weekend, a preponderance of the guidance hints at a pattern change. Cluster analysis shows that the grand ensemble wants to flatten the ridge over Florida beginning on Wednesday or Thursday. Upper-tropospheric charts then reveal an area of divergent 200 hPa flow and potential upward motion expanding over the Gulf and W Caribbean, and total moisture anomalies turn strongly positive. While it's too early to tell whether a distinct area of low pressure could form, this setup would result in periods of unsettled weather over the state. Accordingly, the CPC 6-10 day outlook indicates a 50-60% chance of above-normal rainfall between May 27-31.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

This looks like a rinse-and-repeat weather setup to end the work week. A ribbon of drier air at 10 kft, right along the Atlantic coast, should limit the I-95 corridor to only passing showers primarily in the morning hours. By afternoon, a few showers and storms should develop over the interior. Overall, shower and storm coverage should be limited to 20-30%. High temps in the upper 80s to low 90s will be running a couple degrees above normal. Quiet conditions tonight with muggy low/mid 70s.

The high risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at our Atlantic beaches. Swimming in the ocean is discouraged today.

Memorial Day Weekend...

Very similar weather continues each day. The E to SE wind flow should limit coastal rain chances primarily to a few morning showers. By afternoon, isolated to widely scattered (30-50%) storms should develop over the interior before exiting toward the Gulf coast in the evening. While a few wind gusts to 40-45 mph cannot be ruled out from the strongest storms, this looks to be a low threat. These slow-moving storms will be capable of dropping 2-3" of rain in a short time over localized spots, perhaps resulting in some nuisance ponding of water or minor flooding over urban areas.

No significant change in temperatures which remain near to a few degrees above normal. Those partaking in outdoor activities should stay hydrated and wear sunscreen.

Next (Short) Work Week, Tue-Fri...

We continue to like a persistence forecast through at least Tuesday, as guidance suggests one more batch of drier mid-level air will pass over the peninsula. As the mid-tropospheric ridge flattens and flow aloft starts to turn more southwesterly, deeper moisture should begin to arrive by Wednesday or Thursday. Higher rain and storm coverage should creep back into the picture at that time, though the specifics will need to be ironed out in later forecasts. As mentioned in the overview, this could mark a stretch of more unsettled weather to end the month of May.

MARINE

Issued at 206 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

High pressure will remain anchored near or just south of Bermuda through early next week, with its axis extending back into the Deep South. Moderate prevailing east to southeast winds continue over the waters this weekend before freshening somewhat early next week. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast.

Seas 3-4 ft through early next week, except up to 5 ft well offshore. E to SE winds 10-15 kt through Saturday, then up to 12-18 kt Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Isold SHRA lifting northward just offshore will brush the coastal terminals this morning so will start them at VCSH. Also patches of MVFR CIGs will be possible as far inland as MCO through 14Z. ESE- SE winds will pick back up 7-12 knots, enhanced by the sea breeze along the coast gusting 20-24 knots there. Isold-SCT SHRA will develop inland during the day with the sea breeze, some developing into TSRA. Handling MCO with a VCTS from 19Z-23Z as probs are no higher than 20% at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 75 90 77 / 20 0 20 20 MCO 91 74 92 75 / 20 10 50 20 MLB 88 79 88 80 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 88 78 89 79 / 10 0 30 10 LEE 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 50 50 SFB 92 75 93 76 / 20 0 40 20 ORL 91 75 92 76 / 20 10 50 20 FPR 88 77 88 78 / 10 0 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.