textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Isolated showers and storms along the sea breeze today, becoming more scattered this weekend.

- Favorable boating conditions forecast this weekend.

- Warming trend into the weekend, then turning hot next week especially over the interior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Today-Sunday... Broad mid-level troughing gradually shifts over central Florida and into the western Atlantic through Sunday, and pulses of shortwave energy will continue to pass overhead through the period. A surface ridge axis extended over the Florida peninsula gradually broadens as the high pressure center weakens and retreats eastward. A loose pressure gradient will support a daily sea breeze pattern. Southeast to south surface flow today gradually veers through the weekend becoming south to southwest Saturday and southwest to west on Sunday. A sea breeze collision favored down the spine of the peninsula today will gradually shift eastward Saturday and Sunday as light offshore flow develops. Slower development of the east coast breeze and a slower progression inland each day will aid a warming trend. Highs in the low to mid 80s today warm above seasonal values Saturday and Sunday, reaching the mid to upper 80s. Modest moisture remains shallow today, capped around 700mb, but this should be enough for isolated (20%) shower development along the sea breeze with low confidence in occasional lightning strikes. At this time, global ensembles are showing slight disagreements in moisture this weekend. NBM PoPs currently lean towards the slightly more moist solution favoring scattered coverage of showers and storms Saturday (20-30%) and Sunday (30-40%) afternoon. Steep low level lapse rates and dry air aloft could allow for a brief stronger storm capable of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Monday-Thursday... A 500mb shortwave moves offshore the Carolina and Mid Atlantic coast early Monday. Surface low pressure develops in the western Atlantic, pulling a "back-door" cold front across east central Florida Monday into Tuesday, however, models diverge in precise timing. Most global ensemble members point towards limited QPF associated with the front, and there is only a mention of isolated showers within the extended forecast. Forecast confidence further decreases mid to late next week with some hints of another frontal passage Thursday or beyond.

Mostly dry through the extended period outside of the isolated showers mentioned on Monday. High temperatures remain above normal, mostly in the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, reaching the low 90s across much of the interior Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

High pressure will maintain favorable boating conditions over the local waters into early next week. Light southeast winds gradually veer into the weekend, becoming offshore by Sunday. However, a daily sea breeze pattern will shift local winds east- southeast each afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft today are forecast to become widely 2 ft this weekend. Seas build 4-6 ft late Monday into Tuesday as the next cold front passes the local waters. Isolated showers and storms are forecast today, primarily south of the Cape. Mostly dry over the waters on Saturday with isolated activity near the coast as the sea breeze develops. Isolated to scattered showers then spread over the waters Sunday before a drying pattern builds Monday into mid next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 629 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A few light showers along the Treasure Coast this morning are forecast to diminish through around 14Z. Then, mostly dry conditions prevail, until after around 20Z over the interior. Can't rule out a few showers along the sea breeze at the coast in the late morning, but CAMs are more supportive of activity over the interior this afternoon. Instability looks low enough to prevent VCTS, though can't rule out a strike or two. Any showers or storms are expected to end by around 03Z. E/ESE flow through this evening, increasing to 8-12 kts this afternoon behind the sea breeze. Winds then become light again overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Above normal temperatures are expected as a warming trend continues into the weekend. MinRH values remain sensitive across portions of the interior today and Saturday with moisture forecast to modestly recover Sunday and Monday. Light prevailing flow will shift east- southeast behind the sea breeze each afternoon. This daily sea breeze pattern will allow for isolated (20%) showers and storms this afternoon with more scattered coverage (20-40%) this weekend. New fire starts will be a concern from any lightning strikes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 82 62 86 64 / 10 10 20 10 MCO 84 65 88 66 / 20 20 30 10 MLB 81 66 84 67 / 20 10 20 10 VRB 81 64 84 65 / 20 10 20 10 LEE 86 63 88 65 / 20 20 20 10 SFB 85 63 88 65 / 20 20 20 10 ORL 85 65 88 67 / 20 20 30 10 FPR 81 63 84 65 / 20 10 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.