textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 309 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for portions of East Central Florida through 10 AM. Use caution on the morning community. Reduce speed if encountering reduced visibility.

- Other than morning fog, which will be possible again Saturday and Sunday, conditions remain mostly quiet albeit on the warm side for late November through mid next week.

- A few light showers can't be ruled Sunday and Monday as a weak front delivers a bit of low-level moisture.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today-Saturday...Ridging over the Southeast is flattened by a shortwave transiting through the upper level pattern to the north. High pressure at the surface will remain centered roughly over Central Florida today then start to drop south Saturday, while elongating ahead of an approaching weaken front associated with the passing upper level disturbance. With the high centered overhead conditions will be favorable for patchy to areas of overnight/early morning fog that could become locally dense, reducing visibility to less than a mile, but generally don't look to support widespread fog. Confidence where and when fog will develop is not the highest. Hi-res model guidance like the HRRR are continuing to be very aggressive and calling for dense fog across much of the area, which has not played out the previous several mornings. Then on the other hand MOS/LAMP remains much more pessimistic about chances, which has done well previous mornings, but has been playing catch-up tonight. For this morning expect the dense fog in Volusia and adjacent portions of Seminole to remain in this general area as a light offshore breeze develops, but less certain if fog in northern Brevard will spread south or not, or additional fog will develop farther south in Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast counties. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Volusia, Seminole, and northern Brevard counties, and will be extended as needed. For tonight into Saturday morning, can't say much more than at least patchy fog will be possible across the whole area. 00Z HREF is signaling highest chances for Osceola and portions of the adjacent counties, but even hi-res ensemble has been flip- flopping run to run the last several days, and confidence just isn't there to include areas/dense fog in the forecast at this time.

As for the rest of the forecast, high pressure will keep conditions dry but afternoons warm for late November, with high temperatures in the L-M80s (normal highs in the M-U70s), while mornings remain generally seasonably cool in the U50-L60s, a bit on the warm side in coastal Martin reaching the M60s. A Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues at the beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

Sunday-Monday...Upper level pattern goes for a bit of a ride through much of next week. Troughing over the eastern seaboard amplifies Sunday, helping to push a weakening front through the area with little fanfare, then quickly pushes offshore as ridging builds over the eastern US Monday. The front will deliver a bit of additional low-level moisture, but don't expect more than a couple showers as best (chances 15% or less) and no chances for lightning storms. Winds remains generally light, shifting from westerly ahead of the front to northerly behind Sunday, then easterly Monday as high pressure builds over the Southeast behind the front. Cooling will be minimal, only shaving a degree or two off afternoon highs bringing them to the U70s-L80s by Monday afternoon, and morning lows will actually continue to creep up towards the L-M60s by Monday morning as flow becomes onshore. Fog will be possible again Sunday morning near the front, then chances decrease Monday morning.

Tuesday-Thursday...Just as quickly as ridging over the eastern US arrived it pushes offshore ahead of a broad trough and attendant large surface low pressure system swinging across the CONUS. The surface high extending over Florida will have already pushed offshore by Tuesday morning, shifting low level flow southerly, lifting the weak frontal boundary back north as a warm front, and resuming warmer than normal temperatures through midweek. Mostly dry conditions expected, but will need to keep an eye out for onshore moving marine showers. Stubborn ridging over the Caribbean looks to keep the trough from making it down to Florida, causing the associated cold front to become strung out across the Southeast midweek as it outruns upper level support, then pushing into Florida late week thanks to a slug of high pressure diving into the Southeast. Better agreement in arrival time of the front, with both the ECM and GFS bringing it into Central Florida Thursday, but the GFS has considerably more moisture along the boundary and a stronger high following than the ECM, decreasing confidence in rain chances and where/if the front stalls late week. GFS PoPs for Thanksgiving are pretty aggressive at 20-50% across parts of the area, with GFS MOS a little more subdued at 20-40%. The ECM is much more pessimistic at just 20% across the south, and ECM MOS 15% or less. Official forecast leans towards ECM, calling for 10-20% rain chances Thanksgiving, highest to the south. Increasing confidence for a slight cool down across the north behind the front bringing seasonable holiday temperatures, but to the south temperatures remain warmer than normal. Better chances for more meaningful cooling Friday, but rain chances could linger.

MARINE

Issued at 309 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions. High pressure centered over Florida today shifts south Saturday ahead of an approaching weakening front. The weak front pushes through Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters Sunday with little fanfare, then lifts back north as a warm from Monday, as high pressure builds over the Eastern Seaboard through midweek.

Light and variable winds today become offshore Saturday and Sunday morning at 10 kts or less, but could still be shifty Saturday afternoon due to a weak sea breeze. Winds gradually veer through Tuesday, becoming NW-NE behind Sunday's front, then NE-E Monday, and ESE-SE Tuesday, at 5-15 kts, highest offshore. Seas 1-3 ft. Heavy showers and lightning storms aren't expected, but some light marine showers can't be ruled out.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 618 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas of fog are already starting to diminish across the I-95 corridor of Volusia and northern Brevard counties early this morning, but will still be capable of producing IFR/MFVR conditions from KTIX northward to KDAB through 14Z. Patchy fog elsewhere will be capable of producing localized tempo IFR/MVFR conditions through 13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions forecast from mid morning onward as any fog lifts and diminishes. High pressure across the area will keep winds generally light and variable, becoming E/NE along the coast around 7-8 knots this afternoon, with a developing east coast sea breeze.

Patchy/areas of fog will develop again after midnight tonight. For now have include tempo 3SM visibilities from 9-12Z at all TAF sites, but localized IFR/LIFR conditions will again be possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 59 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 83 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 61 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 81 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 82 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 82 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 82 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-046- 141-247-347-447.

AM...None.