textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Stay out of the rough surf!

- Scattered to numerous (~ 50-80%) showers and lightning storms are forecast each day through the weekend with coverage peaking in the afternoon and early evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty winds of 40-50 mph and occasional to frequent lightning. Locations that see repeated storms will have the potential to experience localized flooding

- Remaining quite warm and very humid through Sunday, with peak heat index values as high as 100 to 105 degrees. Know the signs of heat illness; take frequent hydration breaks in the shade or A/C. Less humid conditions are forecast by Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery currently shows dry weather across east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Temperatures are currently in the mid 80s to low 90s with dew points in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds are breezy from the southeast at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-28mph. The 10Z XMR sounding showed MLCAPE at 1,327 J/kg, 0-6km shear at 31kts, a PWAT value at 2.11," and a 500mb temperature at -6.4C. Analysis charts show the Atlantic ridge extended over the Florida Panhandle with Major Hurricane Isaias moving north-northeast at 16mph near the Alabama coast.

Scattered to numerous (~30-70% chance) generally north-northeast moving showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening before chances gradually diminish around 8PM. Guidance shows MLCAPE increasing to up to 2,500 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 35kts, a LLJ up to 25-30kts across northern ECFL, and PWAT values up to around 2.3-2.5" (90th percentile to the maximum percentile for the date). The aforementioned weather parameters are sufficient for isolated strong storms capable of occasional to frequent lighting, wind gusts up to 35-45mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-2" in 60minutes). Expect breezy southeast winds to gradually weaken tonight at around 5-10mph. Above normal (~4F-8F degrees) low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are expected.

The Weekend... The wet weather pattern is expected to continue through the weekend as Major Hurricane Isaias transitions to a extratropical system with a cold front - extending from the low over central Tennessee - across east central Florida on Sunday. Rain chances (~50-80% chance) will remain high through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms expected each afternoon and evening hours. However, the coverage of showers and lightning storms will be nearly equal across all of east central Florida on Saturday; then the coverage will be greatest across areas to the south of I-4 on Sunday as the aforementioned cold front moves south-southeast across east central Florida. Guidance shows moderate instability, moderate bulk shear values, relatively warm 500mb temperatures at -5C to -6C, and PWAT values up to 2.3-2.5" (90th percentile to the maximum percentile for the date). Thus, the primary hazards with isolated strong storms will be occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"+ in 60 minutes). Additionally, there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for excessive rainfall on Saturday.

Monday-Thursday... Deterministic models and LREF-clusters are in good agreement that the Atlantic ridge will weaken and shift east over the western Atlantic as a longwave trough deepens over the eastern CONUS/western Atlantic Monday into Tuesday. The aforementioned guidance then shows a mid/upper level ridge building over the eastern CONUS on Thursday; although there is disagreement on how far north the ridge builds and for how long it stays over the eastern CONUS. Much drier air filters in across east central Florida with mostly dry conditions across the region through Thursday. However, isolated showers cannot be ruled out across the Treasure Coast Monday and Thursday. Expect offshore flow through Tuesday before flow shifts onshore midweek. Seasonable high temperatures are forecast with seasonable to above normal low temperatures.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Currently-Tonight... Poor and choppy boating conditions are expected even outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated to numerous generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts at 34kts or greater. Southeast winds are expected to increase tonight at 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts. Seas up to 2-4ft with up tp 5ft over the Volusia county waters are forecast. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution.

Saturday-Tuesday (modified previous discussion)... Moderate winds on Saturday are expected to become southerly on Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution at times, particularly on Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue through the weekend. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts to 34kts or greater. A front arrives on Monday which will usher in drier air next week. SE winds at 10-15 kts increase to 15-20 kts on Saturday. Winds turn southerly on Sunday at 10-15 kts. Seas generally 3 to 4 feet through this weekend. A front will turn winds northwesterly on Monday with seas remaining 3 to 4 feet.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

A weak frontal boundary has lifted just north of KDAB/KLEE early this afternoon promoting ESE/SE winds (7-12 kts - few higher gusts) areawide. However, deep moisture remains across the area and expect a summer diurnal SCT-NMRS shower/lightning storm pattern with activity lifting northward. Highest PoPs inland and along/north of I-4. Inherited "Vicinity", "PROB30", and "TEMPO" wording for many TAF sites this aftn/early eve. Still dealing with some spotty MVFR CIGs, otherwise generally VFR outside of convection. Showers/storms diminish thru this evening with mainly dry conditions overnight. Winds light SE/ESE.

For Sat, S/SSW winds which may "back" SE along the immediate coast in the aftn with sea breeze development, but push inland limited. Higher than normal shower/storm chances continue (60-80%) and mainly afternoon/evening variety.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 90 75 87 / 30 70 40 60 MCO 76 91 76 88 / 30 70 40 70 MLB 77 90 75 89 / 20 70 40 70 VRB 77 90 75 90 / 20 70 40 80 LEE 75 89 75 85 / 30 60 40 50 SFB 76 90 76 87 / 30 70 40 60 ORL 77 90 77 87 / 30 70 40 70 FPR 76 90 75 89 / 20 70 40 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.