textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Patchy, locally dense fog possible through early this morning, especially across the interior.

- Isolated showers are forecast today through Monday as a weak front moves into the area and stalls, but mainly dry and warm weather persists through early this week.

- A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, ushering in cooler than normal temperatures into late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today-Tonight...A weak front across the southeast U.S. will push slowly southward into North Florida today, and then shift into northern portions of Central Florida late this afternoon. This boundary will continue to slowly slide southward, eventually stalling across the region into tonight. Stratus will build down and expand through early this morning, near to north of Orlando, with patchy/areas of fog possible across much of east central Florida. However, HREF guidance indicates fog chances are lower than last night. Any stratus/fog will lift and break up into mid morning as daytime heating sets in. It will be mostly dry, but increasing moisture and a developing sea breeze may kick off a few showers or sprinkles later in the afternoon/early evening, mainly near to northeast of Orlando, closer to the front. Overall rain chances remain low, and have limited PoPs to 20 percent. As this boundary shifts southward and low level winds veer to the NE, a slight chance for onshore moving showers will exist, mainly across Brevard County and Treasure Coast into tonight.

After any stratus across the north diminishes, skies will be partly sunny today, with highs still several degrees above normal in the low 80s. Temps will remain mild overnight, with lows in the 60s. Patchy fog development will again be possible, mainly across the interior late tonight into early Monday morning.

Monday-Tuesday...Mid level ridge builds E/NE across Florida early this week, with front shifting back northward as a warm front Monday night into Tuesday. Isolated showers will continue to be possible, mainly near to south of the Cape on Monday as front lingers and onshore flow develops. But as this front lifts north, mostly dry conditions are generally forecast for Tuesday, with some showers persisting offshore. Highs will mostly remain in the low 80s, with overnight lows still in the 60s. Lower fog potential into Monday night as low level SE winds increase above the surface, increasing mixing. However, fog chances may increase once again into Tuesday night/early Wednesday as low level winds veer southerly and weaken.

Wednesday-Sunday...Large scale trough aloft will shift eastward from the central to eastern U.S. from mid to late week, which will weaken the mid level ridge across the region, and shift it east-southeast. The trough will also shift a cold front through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Low end rain chances (20-30%) with a slight chance for thunderstorms continues in the forecast, southeast of Orlando through Wednesday-Thursday as front approaches and moves through the region, with drier air filtering in behind the front and ending rain chances into Friday. However, high pressure building in north of the front will quickly lead to a developing breezy onshore flow into the weekend, which will gradually increase moisture and should also lead to an increase in onshore moving showers.

Temperatures continue to warm into Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 80s ahead of the approaching front. As cold front crosses the area, highs on Thanksgiving are forecast to fall to the low to mid 70s near to north of Orlando, and in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees south. North-northeast winds will continue to allow max temps to drop into Friday, ranging from the upper 60s across Volusia County and low to mid 70s farther south and inland. Lows will fall into the 50s to low 60s most locations into Thursday night and Friday night, but may see min temps as low as the upper 40s northwest of I-4 early Friday morning. Developing onshore breeze into next weekend will lead to a gradually rise in temps, with highs still in the 70s and overnight lows back into the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today-Tonight...Westerly winds up to 10-15 knots this morning will gradually become north-northeast this afternoon and evening, with speeds decreasing to 5-10 knots as a weak front pushes into central FL and stalls overnight. Wave heights will remain around 1-3 feet. Isolated showers will be possible across the waters with this front.

Monday-Thursday...Winds veer onshore into early this week as front lingers across the waters and eventually shifts northward into Tuesday. Wind speeds increase to 10-15 knots Monday and decrease to 5-10 knots Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as winds veer to the south-southeast. Seas will continue around 1-3 feet early to mid week, but may increase briefly to 4 feet well offshore north of the Cape into Monday night. A stronger cold front will move through the waters late Wednesday night into Thursday, with boating conditions deteriorating. Northerly winds will increase to 15-20 knots behind the front Thanksgiving Day into Thursday night, with seas building to 3-5 feet Thursday and 5-7 feet Thursday night.

Isolated showers will continue to be possible over the waters and may see an storm or two develop south of the Cape Wednesday into Thursday as front approaches and moves through the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Multiple CIG and VIS impacts occurring or expected over the next 3 hours or so for the northern ECFL terminals. Stratus continues to push into ECFL ahead of an approaching weak front, dropping CIGs to IFR and occasionally LIFR. At the same time, patchy fog reducing VIS as low as LIFR at times has developed ahead of stratus. Latest guidance has the stratus falling just short of KMCO before beginning to erode around 14Z. Fog should also dissipate by this time, bringing most ECFL terminals to VFR, but MVFR CIGs could linger to around 16Z at KDAB-KLEE. Mainly VFR conditions the rest of the day, but there are low (20% or less) chances for SHRA in the evening and overnight. Fog will be possible again late tonight into early Monday morning, with the highest chances across the the interior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 81 63 78 64 / 20 20 10 10 MCO 82 64 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 81 66 80 66 / 10 20 20 10 VRB 82 65 81 65 / 10 20 20 10 LEE 81 62 81 62 / 10 10 10 10 SFB 82 63 81 64 / 20 20 10 10 ORL 81 64 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 82 63 81 64 / 10 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.