textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms continue through Thursday, with isolated strong storms possible.

- A cool front moves through tomorrow, ushering in breezy to windy north to northeast winds that will lead to hazardous beach and boating conditions from late week through the weekend.

- Drier and somewhat cooler air will lower rain chances and lead to a slight taste of Fall this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Current-Tonight...Seasonably warm and humid conditions this afternoon. Gradually strengthening low pressure off of the Mid Atlc coast will drag a weak "cool" front south into north-central FL this evening. Deep moisture along/ahead of this feature has promoted early initiation of SCT-NMRS showers/lightning storms across ECFL. Expect activity to continue to focus south/inland thru the afternoon and early evening. ISOLD strong storms are possible. Other storm impacts remain locally gusty winds of 40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours of 1-3" locally in a few strong storms or from repeated rounds - potentially leading to minor flooding. Storm steering remains rather weak. While convection is forecast to diminish into evening, ISOLD-SCT onshore-moving showers and storms will remain possible overnight affecting mainly coastal counties. Overnight lows will be in the L-M70s. Thu-Fri...As upper ridging amplifies from southeast TX thru the Plains/Upper Midwest, a mid/upper level trough across the Appalachians will progress southward, exiting the Carolinas and emerging across the western Atlc Thu evening/early Fri and continuing to slide slowly eastward thru late in the period. At the surface, low pressure off of the mid Atlc coast will continue to strengthen as it races up the Eastern Seaboard. The aforementioned surface front will continue to push across ECFL and into the southern FL peninsula. A rather tight pressure gradient develops with breezy to windy N/NE winds developing across the area on Thu, remaining elevated Thu night, and continuing into Fri. This will lead to hazardous boating and beach conditions. Sustained wind speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph are forecast north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast on Thu, with highest wind speeds/gusts focused at the coast. Sustained winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 25-30 mph then spread southward on Fri. SCT-NMRS showers and ISOLD-SCT storms forecast again on Thu (PoPs 30-70%) with passing front. Drier air will then lower rain chances into Fri, with only low end rain chances (20-30%) focused along the coast.

Highs in the M-U80s on Fri, perhaps L80s for much of Volusia County, drop slightly Fri into the L-M80s areawide. Overnight lows will remain in the L-M70s Thu night, then as drier/cooler air moves into the area - will see mins in the M-U60s for much of the region Fri night-Sat morning. Some coastal locations near to south of the Cape, however, may remain in the L-M70s.

Sat-Tue...Previous Modified...Drier and slightly cooler conditions forecast into the weekend through early next week, giving us our first taste of Fall. While highs still reach into the 80s, overnight lows drop into the 60s for the first time since early to mid June (see climate section for last dates below). Noticeably lower humidity will also make conditions more comfortable through the period. Mostly dry conditions forecast this weekend, with a gradual increase in rain chances Mon-Tue as moisture slowly builds. Breezy N/NE winds may continue along the coast into Sat, but winds subside through Sun and into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Thru Tonight...Favorable boating conditions continue through tonight, with the main threat being scattered showers and lightning storms developing across the waters. A weak front will progress southward toward the northern waters this afternoon as it stalls. N/NE winds across the Volusia County coastal waters 10-15 knots, but farther south E/NE winds are forecast to remain 5-10 knots. Seas 2-3 ft, increasing up to 4 ft north of the Cape later tonight.

Thu-Sun...Previous Modified...Hazardous boating conditions develop into Thu (north to south) as the front progresses southward across the area. N/NE winds increase to 15-25 knots Thu-Thu night into Fri, with gusts to 30 knots (~ Cape northward), which will build seas to 7-12 ft through Fri evening. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) goes into effect for the Volusia County waters starting at 8 AM Thu morning and will expand southward across the waters through the day into early Thu evening. The SCA continues across the entire waters through Fri, with additional expansions needed into the weekend as seas will be slow to subside. N/NE winds will diminish to 10-20 kts Sat and around 10 kts by Sun, but seas are forecast to linger up to 7-9 ft on Sat and 4-6 ft into Sun.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast with the frontal passage into Thu, and then drier air building in behind the front will lead to decreasing coverage of this activity Fri. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A surface boundary south of TIX and the Greater Orlando Terminals has initiated scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Additional development is also beginning to initiate along the Treasure Coast as storm boundaries interact with the east coast sea breeze. A mix of PROB30s and TEMPOs are included from SFB southward through the afternoon for brief MVFR/IFR reductions within TSRA. Thunder chances diminish into the evening while shower chances persist overnight, particularly along the coast. Monitoring for stratus into early Thursday, and TEMPOs could be needed across northern terminals with future TAF issuances. Breezy and gusty north winds spread across the area tomorrow.

CLIMATE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Last date the temperature was below 70 degrees (F) this year at select sites:

DAB: June 8th (67 deg) LEE: June 8th (68 deg) SFB: June 8th (67 deg) MCO: June 8th (69 deg) MLB: June 8th (68 deg) VRB: June 11th (69 deg) FPR: June 11th (69 deg)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 86 73 82 / 60 70 50 30 MCO 75 88 72 85 / 10 40 20 10 MLB 75 87 75 84 / 30 50 50 30 VRB 74 88 74 86 / 30 40 40 20 LEE 74 88 71 85 / 10 20 10 0 SFB 74 86 72 83 / 20 50 20 10 ORL 75 87 73 84 / 10 40 20 10 FPR 73 88 74 86 / 30 40 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ555-575.