textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

- High pressure lifts northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic and offshore today, resulting in a gradual increase in low-level moisture and rain chances, particularly along the coast and across the local Atlantic waters.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions are forecast locally due to increasing seas and swells coupled with onshore flow.

- After a warming trend through this week and into the weekend, the next cold front looks to move across east central Florida on Monday, with a return of below-normal temperatures anticipated behind it.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure north of the Florida peninsula shifts northeastward and offshore through today, causing winds to become more easterly locally at 10 to 15 mph. The onshore flow will advect a warm, moist air mass towards the peninsula within the lower levels of the atmosphere, and while rain chances remain low through this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers enter the forecast tonight, especially across the local Atlantic waters. Some of these low- topped showers have the potential to move onshore, particularly along the Treasure Coast, though chances remain low (20%). Temperatures will be a bit warmer today that the last few days, with highs reaching near-normal values in the low to mid 70s areawide. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s to mid 60s, with the coolest temperatures focused north of the I-4 corridor.

At the beaches, increasing swells coupled with onshore flow will lead to a high risk of rip currents at all local beaches. Entering the surf is not advised.

Thursday-Friday...A weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop near the Bahamas, causing winds to veer more northeasterly into Thursday. Onshore-moving showers will be possible (20-40% chance) as moisture continues to increase across east central Florida, though the best chances remain primarily along the coast from the Cape southward. By Friday, the low moves eastward out across the Atlantic and away from the Bahamas, with winds locally returning to a more onshore component. A low chance (20-30%) for onshore moving showers will remain in the forecast into Friday from the Cape southward, with the remainder of east central Florida forecast to remain mostly dry. Temperatures continue to warm through late this week, with highs anticipated to reach the low 80s by Friday. Lows will also remain near to slightly above normal.

Poor to hazardous beach conditions are also forecast to persist as swells remain elevated through late this week. A moderate to high risk of rip currents will be possible, and residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to monitor the forecast if heading to the beaches. Always heed the advice of local beach safety officials and do not enter the ocean if there is a high risk of rip current development.

Saturday-Tuesday...By this weekend, a complex winter system impacting a majority of the central and eastern portions of the US will shift eastward, with the cold front associated with that activity remaining generally north of the Florida peninsula. This will keep conditions warm and mostly dry locally, with temperatures forecast to reach well above normal values, with highs peaking into the mid and even upper 80s in some spots on Sunday afternoon. Rain cannot be ruled out entirely, with low chances along the coast on Saturday due to persistent onshore flow and again on Sunday across the north as the front inches closer to the area. Guidance is beginning to trend towards the front moving southward across the area on Monday, with rain chances of 20-40% forecast areawide. Mostly dry conditions are forecast into Tuesday as high pressure builds behind the front, though some lingering activity across the local waters cannot be ruled out. Cooler temperatures will arrive along and behind the front, and another period of below normal temperatures, especially Monday and Tuesday nights, will be possible for the start of next week.

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Hazardous marine conditions continue across the Gulf Stream waters today, with easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots and seas up to 7 feet. Winds and seas will both gradually subside through today, with the Small Craft Advisory gradually dropping through today. Poor boating conditions are anticipated to continue across the offshore waters through at least Thursday as 6 foot seas linger, caused by prevailing east to northeast flow of 10 to 15 knots. Due to the onshore flow, moisture increases in the low-levels, and rain chances return across the local waters tonight through Friday, generally ranging from 20 to 50%.

By this weekend, a cold front begins a slow approach, with winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots into Sunday. Seas begin to build across the offshore waters as a result, reaching up to 8 feet late Sunday into Monday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Rain will continue to be possible through this weekend. The front will likely move southward across the waters on Monday, with poor to hazardous boating conditions anticipated to continue into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 633 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Increasingly ENE winds towards 18Z. Winds 8-12 kts, with gusts to around 18-20 kts, especially along the coast. Winds will persist through the afternoon, then diminish into the evening, drifting NNE tonight. VFR conditions through the TAF period, as marine stratocu drifts onshore.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 56 74 58 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 73 58 77 59 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 73 60 76 62 / 0 10 20 20 VRB 74 60 77 62 / 0 20 30 20 LEE 72 54 76 56 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 73 55 77 58 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 73 57 77 59 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 74 60 77 61 / 0 20 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555- 575.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ572.