textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Increasing moisture through early next week and beyond will allow rain chances to return to near and above normal values.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon & evening (2-5" totals within reach). In addition, a few strong to severe storms will be in play with potential strong to damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph.

- Highs in the low to mid 90s will continue, with peak heat indices reaching 102-107F each afternoon, and potentially nearing Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Current-Tonight...Yet another hot day on tap, with max temps generally in the L90s south of a central Osceola-Melbourne line and M90s northward (ISOLD U90s possible) with peak heat indices continuing 102-107F ahead of sea breezes and precipitation. Expect a day similar to yesterday with surrounding offices standing down for now on another HT.Y issuance, which could be re-visited with next shift. As such, will continue to monitor for Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F). Consideration of timing of sea breezes, clouds, precip will be key. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk (ISOLD Extreme) conditions will continue. Residents and visitors planning to spend extended periods of time outdoors will need to remain adequately hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning in order to avoid developing heat-related illness. Lows continue in the 70s with conditions muggy.

Deep moisture (PWATs well above 2") surge across ECFL. A weak pressure gradient remains in place with associated ridge axis south/east of the area and light W/NW flow forecast. The ECSB will develop but it will be delayed with slower movement inland during the afternoon. The offshore flow remains fairly deep, but very light. There will be a weakness in mid-level ridging across the region with NW/WNW flow overhead. It remains fairly warm aloft with 500 mb temps at -4.5C to -6.0C, though there will be occasional weak shortwave impulses embedded in the flow that will aid diurnal convection. Initial convection will develop near the east coast by late morning and early afternoon with coverage and intensity increasing across the eastern FL peninsula by late day as stronger boundary collisions occur. Storm steering likely light NWRLY at 5-10 mph as local CAMs show convection "zippering" southward along the sea breeze boundary, though slow movement and multiple rounds for some could increase precip totals locally (2-5") with minor/nuisance flooding resulting. Continue to cap PoPs at 70% areawide and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) keeps much of the eastern FL peninsula in a Marginal (5-14%) Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

In addition to a heavy rainfall threat, The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, and north Brevard counties under a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms today. Lightning strikes and gusty winds 50-60 mph locally will also be possible with stronger convection. Activity will gradually diminishing across the peninsula through the mid-late evening.

Mon-Sat...Persistent pattern developing for the week ahead as the Atlc ridge axis remains south of the area thru the extended. The offshore flow at 925 mb strengthens from Mon onward and the ECSB will be hard-pressed to develop Mon/Tue (if at all) with very limited movement inland, then not likely over the remainder of the period. PWAT values remain stout and nearly 2" or above each day. A frontal boundary is still forecast to drop towards north FL mid-week and remaining quasi-stationary into late week well north of ECFL. The pattern aloft will remain rather "troughy" along the Atlc Seaboard extending south into the FL peninsula, thus allowing periodic shortwave features to dive across the area enhancing diurnal convection daily. SCT-NMRS (30-70%) PoPs (aftn/eve) each day. Main focus will be on heavy rainfall potential on top of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds with storms.

No real break in sight with high temps (90-96F) and peak heat indices continuing to average 102-107F each afternoon ahead of sea breeze/storms. Will continue to monitor for the need of any Heat Advisories, as portions of ECFL could still see heat index values reach around 108-110F. Heat safety will remain key for residents and visitors. Adequate hydration, frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning, and dressing in lightweight, lightly colored clothing if spending extended periods of time outdoors will help reduce the chance of developing heat illness for the upcoming week.

MARINE

Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The Atlc ridge axis remains shunted south of the local waters thru next week. The ECSB may be delayed this afternoon but will likely form with slow movement inland. This feature will most likely be pinned at the coast Mon/Tue should it develop at all, and most likely will not make an appearance thru the remainder of the week due to a deepening and strengthening offshore wind component. Wind speeds may approach 15-20 kts (esp offshore) occasionally Tue night-Thu night with Cautionary Statements potentially necessary here. Seas 2-3 ft but may build to 4-5 ft well offshore surrounding stretches of stronger offshore winds.

Increasing shower/lightning storm potential into next week as moisture surges into the area. Mariners will need to keep an eye to the sky westward during the afternoon/evening as activity will be offshore-moving. Winds and seas locally higher invof convection. Some storms could become strong to marginally severe.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Light southwest winds become variable at times early this morning, especially across the interior, before shifting northwest around 8 kts into late morning. A delayed east coast sea breeze will be slow to move inland this afternoon and evening, eventually turning winds east along the coast and south-southwest across portions of the interior. An active afternoon/evening of scattered to numerous showers and storms is forecast across much of east central Florida with VCTS mentioned at all local terminals by 17Z/18Z. Have opted to include PROB30s at MCO/SUA (20Z/23Z) and MLB/VRB/FPR (19Z/22Z) with the 06Z TAF package. Additional PROB30s or TEMPOs may be needed across more east central Florida terminals with the 12Z TAF package as confidence increases. Slow moving showers and storms may linger into the evening, generally diminishing around 02Z or a little after.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 94 77 92 76 / 70 50 60 10 MCO 96 78 94 77 / 70 30 70 30 MLB 92 77 92 76 / 70 20 70 20 VRB 92 75 93 75 / 60 20 60 30 LEE 95 79 93 78 / 60 30 70 30 SFB 95 78 93 77 / 70 40 70 30 ORL 95 78 93 78 / 70 30 70 30 FPR 92 74 92 74 / 70 20 60 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.