textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will exist across the waters today, with a High Risk for rip currents at area beaches.

- Warming trend takes place this week, becoming hot by midweek, with highs back in the low to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday, nearing record values.

- Isolated to scattered showers and potentially a storm or two will continue today, mainly across southern portions of east central Florida (rain chances 20-40%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure just offshore the Mid- Atlantic coast will extend across north Florida today, with frontal boundary remaining stalled just south of Florida. This will generate a breezy onshore flow across the region today, with east-northeast winds increasing up to 15-20 mph, and gusts 20-30 mph, with strongest winds at coastal locations south of the Cape. Lingering moisture (PW 1.1-1.3") and instability (CAPE of 250-500 J/kg) north of the front will continue to generate isolated to scattered showers and potentially a storm or two, mainly south of a line from Lake Kissimmee to the Cape, with PoPs around 20-40%. Onshore winds and cloud cover, especially across southern areas will keep highs in the upper 70s/near 80 at the coast and low 80s across the interior. Lows overnight will range from the mid 60s to low 70s at the coast and low to mid 60s across the interior.

Tuesday-Thursday...High pressure ridge axis at the surface will continue to push southward across the area through midweek and mid level ridge across the Gulf will nudge its way northeast across the FL peninsula. This will lead to a drier weather pattern and a warming trend that will lead to hotter than normal conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in the 80s on Tuesday, warm to the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday, and low to mid 90s on Thursday. Max temps will be near record values for interior sites on Wednesday, and for much of the area on Thursday, as developing low level offshore flow will delay or limit the east coast sea breeze from forming. A slight (20%) chance for showers and storms will continue for mainly the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County on Tuesday. Otherwise, rain chances remain out of the forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday-Sunday...Model differences begin to take shape into late week and weekend. Front moving into the Southeast U.S. is generally forecast to push southward into the area and then lift back northward before stalling near to north of Florida. However, GFS is a little faster with the arrival of the front then the ECMWF. The front will increase moisture and generally lead to increasing shower and storm chances, with PoPs currently ranging from 20-40% Friday and up to 30-50% into the weekend. The arrival of the front as well as increasing cloud cover and return of rain chances should lower max temps slightly. However, highs are forecast to remain near to above normal (mid 80s to low 90s) through the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure offshore the Mid- Atlantic coast will remain extended across north Florida today as a front remains stalled across the Florida Straits. This will generate a moderate to fresh onshore breeze today, leading to poor to hazardous boating conditions across the waters. Wind speeds will range from 15-25 knots across much of the waters this morning, except 10-15 knots across the nearshore waters of Volusia County. Wind speeds then gradually decrease, becoming 10-15 knots across the adjacent Atlantic into tonight.

A Small Craft Advisory for seas up to 7-8 feet will remain in effect for today for the offshore Brevard County waters and Treasure Coast waters. Small craft should exercise caution for the nearshore waters of Brevard County and offshore marine zone of Volusia County for seas up to 6 feet. The onshore breeze and lingering moisture north of the front will continue to generate scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly south of the Cape.

Tue-Fri...Boating conditions improve as ridge axis settles southward across the area through midweek. Ridge axis then eventually shifts south of Lake Okeechobee by late week as a front moves into the southeast U.S and eventually into central FL Friday. E/SE winds around 10-15 knots through Tuesday/Wednesday veer southerly into Thursday and then eventually become N/NE behind the front into Friday. Seas fall to 2-4 feet for the remainder of the week, with conditions turning drier and warmer through midweek. Showers and storms chances return (20-30%) Friday as weak front moves into the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 631 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Some signs MVFR CIGs are beginning to break at KVRB-KSUA, but at least TEMPO reductions forecast to persist through 18Z-20Z, and occasional reduction afterwards remain possible until 00Z. Chances for SHRA/TSRA at KVRB-KFPR appear to be slipping as well, but will leave VCSH. Better chances for SHRA/TSRA INVOF KSUA through around 20Z. NNE-NE winds 5-10 kts early this morning quickly increase to 12-17 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, as soon as mid-morning along the coast, and late morning to early afternoon inland. Winds may occasionally push higher. Can't rule out some shallow onshore moving -SHRA once winds pick up. Winds settle inland after 00Z, and remain breezy along the coast until later.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Breezy winds out of the east-northeast are forecast across the area today. Sustained speeds up to 15-20 mph and gusts 20-30 mph are forecast into the afternoon, with strongest winds at the coast. The onshore flow is forecast to keep RH values above critical values this afternoon, but Min RH values are expected to drop as low as the upper 30s to mid 40s northwest of I-4. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and isolated storms are possible today, mainly south of the Cape. Onshore winds diminish tomorrow, with speeds around 10 mph in the afternoon. Lowest Min RH values will be well inland across Lake County in the low 40s tomorrow afternoon. Rain chances also diminish, with only a slight chance for showers and storms across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Dispersion values will be good to very good both today and Tuesday.

Hotter than normal temperatures are forecast into midweek, with highs in the low to mid 90s. This will lead to more sensitive fire weather conditions as Min RH values fall as low as the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Winds favor a sea breeze pattern through the period, with southwesterly flow keeping the breeze pinned to the coast Thursday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites Wednesday, May 6th and Thursday, May 7th:

Site May 6 May 7 Daytona 95 (1955) 93 (1952) Leesburg 93 (2007) 94 (1984) Sanford 95 (1952) 94 (2009) Orlando 98 (1922) 98 (1915) Melbourne 94 (2022) 91 (1980) Vero Beach 95 (2022) 93 (1947) Fort Pierce 95 (2022) 95 (1906)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 79 64 82 67 / 0 10 10 0 MCO 82 65 86 69 / 10 10 10 0 MLB 79 68 83 70 / 20 10 10 0 VRB 79 67 83 69 / 30 20 20 0 LEE 84 63 87 68 / 10 10 10 0 SFB 83 63 87 67 / 0 10 10 0 ORL 83 65 87 69 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 79 67 83 68 / 30 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-572- 575.