textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged.

- Persistent onshore flow will keep max temperatures at the coast near normal, but slightly above normal heat expected inland through much of next week. Peak heat index values each afternoon will climb thru the 90s to around 100F by Friday of next week.

- Isolated to Scattered (20-40%) shower/lightning storm chances for much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Current-Tonight...Another morning with convergent (ISOLD-WDLY SCT) showers off of the Treasure Coast spreading inland (toward NW). Don't be surprised if some of this activity slides north into portions of Brevard, eastern Osceola and Orange/Seminole counties thru sunrise. Most locations will remain dry, but a few could briefly see heavy downpours. Will continue to update the grids/zones accordingly.

Surface high pressure remains centered off of the mid Atlc coast which will allow for an onshore wind flow across ECFL. This will enable a diffuse sea breeze to develop and push well inland with an eventual collision with the WCSB across WCFL late today. Storm steering remains fairly light and focused toward the west coast so there will be no push back toward the east coast in the evening. Temperatures at 500 mb are relatively cool at -9.5C to -10.5C. PWATs are just modest at best across ECFL and become drier late in the day with greater values across WCFL. Convection chances (outside of early this morning) 20-40pct well inland thru late day, with most locations remaining dry. Primary storm impacts with any storms will be lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 40 mph locally, small hail, and brief downpours.

Slightly above normal max temperatures continue inland in the U80s to L90s with M80s at the immediate coast. Peak afternoon heat indices will be in the L-M90s nearly areawide with a Minor to Moderate HeatRisk. Min temps in the U60s to M70s and possibly some U70s across barrier islands. Enhancement from the sea breeze will continue to increase onshore winds to 10-15 mph, up to 15-20 mph along the coast in the afternoons with frequent higher gusts.

A HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents will exist at ALL central FL Atlc beaches again today. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged. If you must enter the surf, only do so at a life-guarded beach and never swim alone!

Mon-Sat...Surface high pressure centered off of the mid Atlc coast will continue to keep an east-west oriented ridge axis north of the area through Thu, with the high pressure cell gradually weakening and pushing further into the Atlc ahead of an approaching weak frontal boundary that will become quasi-stationary over the Deep South. This will keep a mainly onshore wind component in place and allow for deeper moisture to surge northward late in the period. Wind speeds generally 10-15 mph each day, but locally higher in association with sea breeze passage. Highest diurnal shower and storm coverage will continue across the western FL peninsula each day/evening. PoP chances mainly 20-40% and could increase to 40-60% next weekend. Storm steering remains light and generally toward the west coast for much of the period. Greatest chances for convection in the morning/early afternoon along the coast and mid- late aftn and early evening across the interior.

Consistently warm with a Minor to Moderate HeatRisk each day. Highs in the M-U80s near the coast and around 90F to L90s into the interior. Persistent low temps in the U60s to M70s across ECFL, with a few U70s in play. Peak heat indices in the L-M90s, locally U90s; U90s to L100's come into play areawide on Fri/Sat.

MARINE

Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Thru Thu...Generally favorable boating conditions thru the period as high pressure remains centered off of the mid Atlc coast with associated ridge axis well north of the local waters. This will continue to provide mainly onshore winds with a tighter pgrad in place thru Tue evening, speeds 12-18 kts for much of this time, then winds diminish just a bit into mid-week as the gradient relaxes. A sea breeze will develop each day and push well inland, therefore not expecting push-back of storms to the coast. Seas continue mainly 2-4 ft, perhaps building up to 5 ft at times offshore surrounding brief wind surges. ISOLD to SCT shower and lightning storm chances, highest offshore & south of the Cape over the near shore waters.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 134 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Convergent showers once again drifting onshore along the Treasure Coast overnight, with VCSH in place through 14Z. SE winds also remain elevated near 9-12 kts overnight along the coast south of the Cape. Winds will increase to near 15 kts through the morning hours, with gusts 20-25 kts spreading inland with the sea breeze into the afternoon. Mostly dry aside from the coastal showers overnight. However, expect to see a sea breeze collision in the vicinity of KLEE again after 21Z, with VCTS in place there into the evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Surface high pressure to the north across the western Atlantic will continue to provide an onshore wind component across the area into next week. A diffuse sea breeze will develop each day and spread well inland with eventual collision with the west coast sea breeze late and highest shower and lightning storm chances will be found well inland to across west central Florida. Lightning storm chances thru the period typically 20-40%. Moisture values increase keeping min RH values generally well above critical. East-southeast winds each day will increase to 10-15 mph, except 15-20 mph along the Space/Treasure coasts with gusts 20-25 mph almost areawide. Generally Good to Very Good dispersion each afternoon through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 73 87 75 / 10 0 10 10 MCO 90 71 89 73 / 10 0 30 0 MLB 86 77 86 77 / 0 0 30 20 VRB 87 76 86 76 / 0 10 40 30 LEE 91 71 90 72 / 30 0 10 0 SFB 91 71 89 73 / 10 0 10 10 ORL 90 72 89 73 / 10 0 30 10 FPR 86 75 86 76 / 10 10 40 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.