textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

- A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of east central Florida through early this morning, except coastal Martin County where a Frost Advisory is in place.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the Gulf Stream waters and near inlets today before improving briefly into Wednesday.

- Temperatures return to near normal values Wednesday, then another cold front brings a chance for showers Thursday followed by cooler/colder than normal conditions into late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Currently...High pressure continues to settle in across the Florida peninsula, with temperatures outside of more urban areas already at or below the freezing mark. Some high clouds are moving in from the west, but they don't look too widespread yet to have much effect on offsetting radiational cooling. Therefore widespread freeze and frost looks on track through this morning, with lows falling to the upper 20s to low 30s for many sites. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of east central FL through 9 AM this morning, except along the Martin County coast where a Frost Advisory continues. Make sure to dress warmly if heading outdoors through early this morning.

Today-Tonight...High pressure across the area will shift gradually offshore later today into tonight. Dry conditions will prevail with lighter and more variable winds across the area today. After the cold start, highs will be a little warmer than yesterday, but still below normal in the 60s. There will be a little more cloud cover as well, mostly in the form of passing higher cirrus clouds through the morning, with some scattered cumulus clouds forming late morning and into the afternoon across the Treasure Coast.

Temperatures will not be as cold tonight into early Wednesday morning, but will still be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s for many locations. Lows in the mid 30s and patchy/areas of frost are forecast across the normally colder areas NW of I-4, but may see some patchy frost across more rural inland areas south of Orlando as well that fall below the 40 degree mark. For now will hold off on the issuance of any Frost Advisories and let day shift take one final look at any temperature trends in the model guidance. However, best potential for a Frost Advisory would be for northern Lake and inland Volusia counties tonight through early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday-Friday...Highs will finally climb back to near normal values, in the 70s, Wednesday afternoon. However, this will unfortunately be short-lived, as another cold front moves through the area Thursday. Ahead of an along the front, isolated to scattered showers will develop (PoPs increasing to 30-50%) into Wednesday night-Thursday. Instability still looks too low for any lighting storm mention. While the rainfall will certainly be welcome to drought stricken Florida, rainfall totals will unfortunately be meager, with most likely amounts around a quarter of an inch or less. Drier and colder conditions then return behind the passing front. However, low temperatures will not be as extreme as what we saw with the previous strong front. Min temps are currently forecast to fall to the mid to upper 30s for much of the area Thursday night into Friday morning, with a 30-50% chance for freezing temperatures NW of I-4 and across rural inland areas south of Orlando. Temps are then forecast to remain below normal to end the week, but lows Friday night look to recover slightly, but still remain chilly in the low to mid 40s.

Saturday-Monday...Another front moves through the area early into the weekend, but this boundary looks to remain dry and will be much weaker. Highs currently forecast to be closer to normal, in the 70s, with overnight lows still below normal, in the 40s, through early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure across Florida will shift offshore into tonight, keeping dry conditions and below normal temperatures in place. N/NW winds up to 10-15 knots this morning will weaken and become somewhat variable into the afternoon and into tonight, with speeds 5-10 knots. Boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous across the Gulf Stream, as lingering swells up to 6-7 feet are slower to subside. Hazardous boating conditions will also exist near inlets during the outgoing tide today due to long period swells of 4-5 feet with a period of 12 seconds. The Small Craft Advisory over the Treasure Coast waters and offshore of Brevard County has been extended through 1 PM this afternoon. Small craft should also exercise caution over the offshore waters of Volusia County through early afternoon for seas up to 6 feet. Seas up to 6 feet will then linger into the evening over the Gulf Stream waters south of the Cape before falling to 3-5 feet overnight.

Wednesday-Saturday...Another cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. Wednesday and will eventually push through the waters on Thursday, with scattered showers developing ahead of and with the front into Wednesday night/Thursday. However, no lightning storms are currently forecast with this frontal passage. Boating conditions will continue to gradually improve into the daytime Wednesday as winds eventually become S/SW and speeds remain below 15 knots, with seas falling to 2-4 feet. However, boating conditions again deteriorate, becoming poor to hazardous into Wednesday night and Thursday as front approaches and moves through the waters. W/NW winds increase to 15-25 knots, building seas to 6-9 feet mainly across the Gulf Stream through Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Boating conditions then remain poor to hazardous Friday into Saturday as another dry front approaches and eventually pushes through the waters into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 619 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Dry VFR conditions at all ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Other than a weak east coast sea breeze shifting winds onshore 5-10 kts at coastal terminals in the late afternoon and evening, light/VRB winds as the center of high pressure tracks across Central Florida.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure center across Florida will shift offshore later today into tonight, with ridge axis remaining across central Florida through midweek and keeping dry conditions in place through at least daytime Wednesday. Winds will be mostly light and variable (5 mph or less), with a weak E/NE flow around 5-7 mph developing along the coast in the afternoon. Critically low Min RH values continue today, around 25-35% for most of the area, except 40-50% along the Treasure Coast. Smoke dispersion values will be Poor to Fair for much of east central Florida today due to the light surface and transport winds.

On Wednesday, high pressure will push seaward as another cold front pushes into the deep South. Winds will increase out of the south- southwest 5-10 mph with slightly stronger transport winds. Combined with increased mixing heights, the dispersion will improve to Very Good to Excellent. Min RH values will still fall to critical values, mainly across the interior, as low as the low to mid 30s.

CLIMATE

Issued at 240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Tuesday, February 3rd: RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS Daytona Beach (DAB) 3-Feb 29 1935 50 Leesburg (LEE) 3-Feb 30 1980 50 Sanford (SFB) 3-Feb 32 1976 51 Orlando (MCO) 3-Feb 24 1917 51 Melbourne (MLB) 3-Feb 35 2021 52 Vero Beach (VRB) 3-Feb 32 1976 53 Fort Pierce (FPR) 3-Feb 26 1917 52

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 39 72 46 / 0 0 0 50 MCO 64 43 73 50 / 0 0 0 40 MLB 64 43 72 49 / 0 0 0 30 VRB 65 43 74 47 / 0 0 0 20 LEE 63 41 72 45 / 0 0 0 50 SFB 64 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 50 ORL 64 44 73 49 / 0 0 0 50 FPR 65 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555- 572-575.