textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 201 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of east central Florida today, with heat indices 102-109 degrees.

- High temperatures in the 90s and humid conditions will maintain hot and humid conditions through at least mid-week. Additional Heat Advisories will be possible.

- Increasing moisture late week and into the weekend will lead to higher coverage of showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Today-Tonight...Troughiness off of the eastern US sea board is forecast today, as strong ridging persists over the central portion of the country. Locally, SW flow prevails, increasing into the afternoon, but remaining near to under 10 mph overall. Regardless, this is expected to be enough to limit the inland extent of the east coast sea breeze today. Thus, there will be little relief from hot and humid temperatures, as highs rise into the 90s. Heat indices up to 109 degrees are forecast from Orange and northern Brevard Counties northward, where a Heat Advisory has been issued, but heat indices 102-107+ are forecast area-wide. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening today.

A limiting factor to the heat will be coverage of showers and storms. CAMs have been consistent in developing an early cluster of showers and storms along the Nature Coast near sunrise, which then moves SW through central Florida into the early afternoon. This activity will likely drive the heat chances today, though the highest coverage is forecast to be along the western half of the peninsula with this first round. The thinking is that this coverage will be widely scattered enough and/or there will be a long enough gap in between rounds of convection to allow temperatures to recover and reach Heat Advisory criteria in the advisory area. Regardless, additional showers and storms are then forecast to develop in the mid to late afternoon, with PoPs generally 40-60% overall today. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. Activity will move offshore and diminish through the evening and overnight hours.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Low pressure drops through the Great Lakes mid-week, flattening the upper level Plains ridge axis over the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, the Atlantic ridge axis remains south of east central Florida. The pressure gradient tightens between these features through the period, increasing SW flow from around 10 mph Tuesday afternoon to 15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, on Wednesday afternoon. Ample moisture (PWATs 2-2.15") and the pinned east coast sea breeze will maintain PoPs 40-60% Tuesday, before increased convergence aloft keeps PoPs 30-40% Wednesday. A few strong storms will remain possible, with drier air aloft leading to DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Other storm hazards will include lightning strikes and locally heavy downpours, which could produce some localized flooding. W steering flow will see activity push offshore in the afternoon and evening hours, with drier conditions overnight.

Hot temperatures in the 90s will continue through mid-week. While any showers or storms will be a limiting factor to heat, near to even slightly below normal PoPs will still allow for heat indices to exceed 100 degrees. Will continue to monitor the need for additional Heat Advisories for at least portions of the area. The hottest day this week looks to be Wednesday. Continue to practice heat safety, regardless of whether a Heat Advisory is issued.

Thursday-Sunday...The Atlantic ridge axis remains across the Straits of Florida Thursday, as a low pressure system moves offshore from the Northeast. Aloft, a mid/upper level trough digs through the Southeast and into Florida, despite the associated cold front stalling near to just north of the local area. Upper level support and PWATs near 2" will lead to higher coverage of showers and storms to end the week. PoPs 50-70% across the area will linger into Saturday, as continued breezy SW flow pins the east coast sea breeze. Will see a break from the hotter heat indices due to higher coverage of clouds and precipitation. However, highs are still forecast to reach the lower 90s each afternoon. Coverage of showers and storms returns to nearer to normal (40-60%) Sunday into early next week, as ridging develops aloft.

MARINE

Issued at 201 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Today-Tuesday...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail early this week, as the Atlantic ridge axis remains south of the local area. SW flow will increase to around 10 kts, especially in the afternoons, preventing the east coast sea breeze from developing. Near normal shower and thunderstorm coverage (40-60%) is forecast, with activity developing over land, then moving offshore in the afternoons and evenings. Seas 2-3 ft.

Tuesday Night-Saturday...A low pressure system moves offshore from the Northeast US mid-week, tightening the pressure gradient locally. SW flow increases to 15-20 kts Tuesday night through Thursday night. Winds could reach 20-25 kts briefly Wednesday night well offshore. Seas build to 2-4 ft, with up to 5 ft possible north of Sebastian Inlet Wednesday night. Boating conditions improve into Friday and the weekend, as SW flow diminishes and seas return to 1-3 ft. However, will see an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage through the period, with activity moving offshore.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 658 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A cluster of showers and isolated storms is moving southeastward through the I-4 corridor this morning with brief VIS/CIG reductions within pockets of convection. Some drying is forecast mid to late morning before redevelopment of scattered showers and storms areawide. VCTS is included after 17Z at east central Florida TAF sites with a slightly later start at SUA (19Z). Have introduced PROB30s from TIX/MCO northward (19Z/22Z) with TEMPOs along the coast from MLB southward (18Z/21Z MLB/VRB/FPR, 19Z/22Z SUA). Most convection diminishes by 02Z or earlier. Prevailing west to southwest winds remain less than 10 kts outside of storms. A delayed east coast sea breeze will struggle to move far inland today, shifting winds south to south-southeast along the immediate coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 76 95 78 / 50 10 40 20 MCO 93 77 95 78 / 50 20 50 10 MLB 91 76 93 77 / 60 20 50 10 VRB 92 75 93 75 / 50 20 50 10 LEE 93 79 94 80 / 50 20 50 10 SFB 94 78 95 79 / 50 10 50 20 ORL 93 78 95 79 / 50 20 50 20 FPR 92 74 92 75 / 50 20 60 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.