textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Rough surf and a high risk for numerous, strong, life- threatening rip currents continue at area beaches. Residents and visitors should use caution at the beach and avoid entering the water.

- Shower chances confined to along the Treasure Coast through tonight, with locally heavy rainfall from repeated rounds across coastal St. Lucie/Martin counties possible. Rain chances ramp up again this weekend. - Strong northeast winds forecast to return this weekend and early next week; very windy with dangerous surf and boating conditions, a risk for more beach erosion and minor coastal flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Current-Fri...Strengthening high pressure encompassing much of the eastern CONUS extending across the Deep South will help create a tight pressure gradient allowing for a continuation of NERLY winds. This will support 10-15 mph winds with gusts to 20-25 mph today with winds a little stronger into Fri. Speeds drop to 5-10 mph tonight and perhaps a little higher at the coast. For Fri night, winds stay elevated further along the coast (15 mph with higher gusts). A slug of moisture southward will keep rain chances confined to mostly St. Lucie/Martin counties through tonight, spreading further north along the coast on Fri. PoPs 20-40% along the St. Lucie/Martin coasts may have to be bumped up depending on trends. Precip totals could add up from repeated rounds. Highest PoPs will be located over the adjacent coastal waters.

Max temps slightly below climo in the U70s to L80s each day. Min temps mostly in the 60s with U50s well into the interior overnight and 60s almost everywhere Fri overnight, save for near 70F to L70s along the Space/Treasure coasts.

Sat-Wed...Highly unsettled weather pattern as we venture into the weekend and early next week. Mid-upper level ridging amplifies over the central CONUS as troughing engulfs the FL Straits and Bahamas. A surface low pressure will develop along an old frontal boundary near to northeast of the Bahamas. Moisture deepens and rain chances increase into the weekend-early next week. May have to be mindful of some heavy rainfall potential. Greatest threat along the coast and/or southward where moisture is deepest. The pressure gradient tightens further, once again, and NE/ENE winds strengthen. Expect windy/gusty conditions Sat/Sun/Mon with speeds increasing 20-30 mph sustained this weekend and frequent higher gusts. Wind Advisories may be necessary, at least for the coast. Breezy conditions persist into Tue, then the pgrad relaxes a bit into mid-week.

These strong winds will coincide with high astronomical tides and help produce another hazardous coastal event. Confidence increasing that we will see beach erosion, rough surf, minor coastal flooding, and dangerous rip currents this weekend into early next week. Max temps remain consistent near/just below seasonal norms. Above normal overnight lows in the M60s across the interior and U60s-L70s at the coast due to the strong onshore flow.

MARINE

Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Thru Mon...Poor to Hazardous boating conditions continue thru early Fri, then winds/seas will deteriorate further Fri afternoon thru the weekend and early next week as marine conditions become dangerous. This as high pressure to the north quickly strengthens and tightens the surface pressure gradient, as low pressure develops along an old frontal boundary near to just northeast of the Bahamas. Strong to near Gale force NE/ENE winds are forecast to develop as rain chances increase from south to north. Seas build 12-15 ft by late Sat/Sat night. On top of Small Craft Advisories, Gale Watches/Warnings will likely become necessary sometime on Sat into early next week.

SCT-NMRS shower & ISOLD lightning storm activity confined to the Treasure Coast waters thru tonight, then precip chances increasing northward during the day on Fri thru the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Mostly dry near the terminals today except near SUA where VCSH continues to be possible. VFR conditions through the period. NE winds pick up to 10-15 knots this afternoon, gusting up to 20 knots at times, before slackening beyond 00Z to right around 5 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 65 78 68 / 0 0 20 20 MCO 80 62 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 68 81 70 / 0 0 10 20 VRB 82 68 83 69 / 10 10 30 20 LEE 78 59 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 80 61 80 65 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 80 61 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 82 67 82 69 / 10 10 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550- 552.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.