textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms remain possible ahead of an approaching cold front. - Dry conditions forecast through mid to late week. Cool Wednesday, then warming Thursday and Friday.

- Another front late this week or early next week brings the next chances of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Breezy and sloppy conditions early today improve some, but isolated to scattered showers and possibly a lightning storm marching across the area remain possible ahead of a front pushing across the peninsula tonight. A tight pressure gradient across the area between the approaching front and its parent low pressure system pushing offshore the Mid Atlantic and high pressure in the western Atlantic is producing southwest to west winds 15-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph this afternoon, which will begin to ease later in the evening as the low departs. Middling instability through the morning and early afternoon had kept deep convection limited to just a couple heavier showers, but skies have cleared going into the later afternoon offering some destabilization, which combined with the substantial deep linear shear, has been supporting more scattered deep convection at times. However, while instability has increased some, a band of drier air above 700mb swinging across the peninsula has created a new hurdle to updrafts, and starting to look like there might be too much shear for the instability. All in all, isolated thunderstorms capable of occasional cloud to ground lighting still remain possible, and with storms moving quickly to the east- northeast at 30-40 mph, it won't take much to get a storm gust to 40-55 mph. At least the quick storm motion means downpours will be brief and rainfall accumulations minimal (less than half an inch for even locations that get multiple rounds). Above normal afternoon highs in the L-M80s. Rain and storm chances taper off after peak daytime heating as the only source of instability goes to bed. The front then pushes through overnight, scouring out moisture in the process and clearing out any lingering rain chances. We'll start to cool off tonight, with lows dropping into the M50-M60s.

Wednesday-Friday...Fairly pleasant through mid to late week. High pressure builds into the Deep South and Mid Atlantic behind the front Wednesday, then is shuffled offshore and south Thursday by a large deepening low pressure system well to our north pushing into the Canadian Maritimes, and a strung out low pressure system developing in the northern Gulf. The ridge axis from high pressure over the Atlantic extending towards the Florida peninsula will slide south Friday as the Gulf low slips quickly eastward north of us and the attendant cold front stalls across the Southeast. Northerly winds 5-10 mph Wednesday under the high will bring dry conditions and seasonably cool afternoon highs in the U60-L70s, but chilly overnight lows in the U40s-L60s. We start warming back up Thursday as winds begin to shift onshore, bringing afternoon highs up to the 70s for everyone and overnight lows to the M50-M60s, then quickly warming Friday as winds become southerly ahead of the next front, again at 5-10 mph, bringing afternoon highs to the U70s-L80s and overnight lows into the 60s.

Saturday-Monday (Modified Previous Discussion)...GFS continues to be slower than the ECM with early next week's frontal passage, the former pushing the front through Monday and the latter Sunday. Either way, moisture increases across the area this weekend ahead of the front with PoPs of 30-40pct on Sat during the day north of a Melbourne-Kenansville line and 10-20pct PoPs southward, increasing to 30-50pct across pretty much the whole area Sat night, then settling near 40pct for Sun. Isold thunder cannot be ruled out, but we have yet to include this mention in the grids/zones. Guidance keeps a small PoP in for Mon (for now) due to uncertainty how quickly the front will push through and moisture is scoured out. Highs look to remain above normal in the U70s/L80s for Sat and will likely fall back into the 70s for Sun (between cloud cover and influence from the faster ECM solution), with a cooling trend continuing into Mon - U60s to M70s for maxes. Lows in the U50s to L60s Sat night/Sun morning, and generally 50s most everywhere Sun night/Mon morning.

MARINE

Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Rest Today-Tonight...Winds and seas begin to improve but boating conditions remain at best unfavorable and generally poor to hazardous. Winds topping out at 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts from the SW this afternoon ease and veer through the night, settling to the NNW-NW 10-15 kts late tonight. Was able to cancel the Small Craft Advisory for nearshore Volusia a bit early (small craft should continue to exercise caution), but advisories remain in effect for all Central Florida Atlantic offshore waters through 4 PM, and the Volusia-Brevard segments through 10 PM, though may be able to drop those sooner as well. Seas 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-7 ft offshore subside to 3-5 ft across the waters late tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms capable of occasional cloud to ground lightning will be possible across the local Atlantic waters through the evening, then chances decrease overnight. Storms and heavy showers will move very quickly the east-northeast at over 25-35 kts, increasing potential for even moderate convection to produce locally high gusts over 35 kts.

Wednesday-Saturday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Winds and seas become favorable from mid-late week as high pressure builds over the area. Northerly (~ 10 kts) winds on Wed veer onshore by Thu becoming southerly by late Fri and SWRLY by Fri night/Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten a bit Fri night/Sat as a low pressure system slides north of the area. Seas will quickly subside to 2-4 ft late Wed into Fri, but may increase to 5 ft well offshore Cape northward Fri night/Sat. Generally dry Wed-Fri, but may see some precip chances creep back into the picture Fri night- Sat as moisture increases ahead of the next approaching front for later in the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1248 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Still can't rule out a stray isolated lighting storm, especially with activity moving eastward through the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers will continue through this afternoon pushing quickly east-northeast across the area and offshore ahead of the front. Have removed any VCTS from the TAFs with the 18Z TAF package, but maintain VCSH through this afternoon. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will still be possible with any passing showers. Lower cigs look to build in with the passing front into tonight, with stratus not breaking up until late morning to near noon on Wednesday. This will lead to predominant IFR/MVFR conditions starting near to north of KTIX/KMCO/KISM later this evening and spreading southward across the area overnight. Have conditions then improving to VFR for most locations by 16Z Wednesday.

Breezy SW winds around 14-17 knots with gusts to around 25 knots will continue through this afternoon, diminishing to 5-8 knots this evening as they veer to the W/SW. Winds will continue to veer to the W/NW overnight tonight into Wednesday morning as front pushes southward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 58 70 52 72 / 20 10 0 0 MCO 61 74 53 76 / 20 10 0 0 MLB 62 75 57 75 / 10 10 0 0 VRB 63 77 57 77 / 10 10 0 0 LEE 57 71 50 74 / 20 10 0 0 SFB 59 73 52 74 / 20 10 0 0 ORL 60 73 54 75 / 20 10 0 0 FPR 63 78 57 77 / 10 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ575.