textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Fire danger will remain elevated through Thursday due to low RH values and an increase in south-southwest winds.

- After a chilly/frosty start to this morning, a warming trend then takes hold for the remainder of this week.

- Next chance for measurable rain and isolated storms returns later Friday into Saturday as a front approaches.

- A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Today-Thursday...A Frost Advisory continues for much of east central Florida through 8 AM this morning as morning lows in the 30s and light winds will lead to frost development. However, after this chilly start to the day, a gradual warming trend will begin to take hold as high pressure shifts offshore and winds switch to the south- southwest. Afternoon highs will be closer to normal in the 70s today, and then will be above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday. The dry airmass will still lead to below normal min temps tonight, in the 40s, but lows will then be near to slightly above normal in the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday night. Dry conditions will prevail through tomorrow, but should begin to see an increase in showers, mainly across the coastal waters into Thursday night.

Fire danger will remain elevated over the next couple days, as low RH values persist and S/SW winds increase to around 10 mph today and 10-15 mph on Thursday. With winds switching to the S/SW, may see some smoke from the large National Fire across South Florida lift north/northeast into the area, making for hazy skies for some locations.

Friday-Saturday...Next chance for rain will occur from Friday through Saturday as a weakening cold front approaches and eventually moves through central Florida into the weekend. Rain chances rise to 30-50% on Friday afternoon and then increase further to 60-80% Friday night into Saturday. Thunderstorms will also be possible, especially into Saturday afternoon when greatest instability is forecast to exist across the area. Latest operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF show greatest rainfall totals around 1-2 inches falling across northern portions of east central Florida Friday night into Saturday as front moves in and slows its southward progression. However, ensemble guidance probabilities for rainfall amounts of 1 inch or greater remain at or below 10% across the area at this time. Any rainfall would certainly be beneficial with the ongoing drought, but there is still some uncertainty in how much precip we will receive from this next system. Highs will continue to rise into Friday, reaching the low to mid 80s, and will then drop to the upper 70s to low 80s as cloud cover/rain chances increase.

Sunday-Tuesday...Front will shift south of the area into late weekend, with onshore flow developing quickly behind the front through early next week due to a strong area of high pressure well north of the area. Low end rain chances, up to 20-30 percent will persist, mainly due to periods of onshore moving showers across the area. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to above normal through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Boating conditions become more favorable today and remain that way for much of the rest of the week and into the weekend. High pressure across the area shifts offshore into the Atlantic, with ridge axis remaining near to south of the waters. This will keep winds generally out of the south-southwest through at least Friday before another front moves through central Florida this weekend, switching winds to the north-northeast. Winds speeds largely remain around 10- 15 knots, with seas decreasing from 3-5 feet today to 4 feet or less through the late week into the weekend. It will remain dry across the waters through at least daytime Thursday, before rain chances increase ahead and with the next passing front late in the week and into the weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of showers and storms, especially Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1232 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR through the period. Southwest winds increasing to around 10-12 kts this afternoon with occasional gusts around 18-20 kts. Light and variable winds overnight, generally shifting out of the south. South to southwest winds increase around 10-12 kts again late Thursday morning and into Thursday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

High pressure across Florida shifts eastward into the Atlantic today, with ridge axis remaining near to south of the area through late week. This switches winds to the south-southwest today and Thursday. Wind speeds will increase to around 10 mph this afternoon, but will be closer to 10-15 mph on Thursday. The southerly flow will tend to lead to a gradual increase in moisture. However, very sensitive fire weather conditions will continue today and tomorrow. Critically low Min RH values ranging from 20-35% will exist across much of the area from late this morning through early evening. Min RH values are forecast to be a little higher but still close to critical values on Thursday, ranging from 35-40%, especially across the interior and toward the northern Brevard/Volusia coasts. Dispersion values will range from Good to Very Good today and Good to Excellent on Thursday. The slightly breezier conditions on Thursday could lead to control problems.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 46 77 57 81 / 0 0 10 30 MCO 48 79 60 84 / 0 0 10 30 MLB 48 77 60 81 / 0 0 20 30 VRB 47 79 59 83 / 0 0 20 30 LEE 47 77 58 82 / 0 0 10 20 SFB 47 79 59 83 / 0 0 10 30 ORL 49 79 61 83 / 0 0 10 30 FPR 47 79 58 83 / 0 0 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.