textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Heat Advisory issued for all of east central Florida through 8pm today for heat index values up to 108F-110F degrees; Remember to practice heat safety!

- Hot and humid conditions will continue for at least the next several days. Maximum heat index values will reach near Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through at least Friday.

- Near to below normal rain chances this week. Drier air aloft due to a Saharan Dust Layer will support strong gusty winds in any lightning storms each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A few showers are beginning to develop on KMLB radar as of around 2 PM. Otherwise, the cumulus field seen on GOES-East VIS imagery looks limited in vertical growth. This makes sense, given subsidence aloft due to a mid-level ridge over the Florida peninsula. However, additional development (PoPs to 20-40%) will be possible into the early evening hours. CAMs suggest the sea breeze collision as the focal point for scattered showers and storms through around 7 PM, before drier conditions develop for the overnight hours. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon, especially along the collision, with the 15Z XMR sounding finding 900 J/kg of DCAPE. Wind gusts to near 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours will be the main threats. Hot conditions, with a Heat Advisory in effect for the entire CWA through 8 PM will yield to overnight lows that remain in the mid to upper 70s tonight.

Wednesday-Friday...Similar conditions persist through late week, as high pressure through the column meanders in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf. While subsidence aloft continues to be a limiting factor to convection, humid conditions linger, with PWATs 1.8-2+" providing sufficient moisture for development. Thus, PoPs remain near to below normal (especially Wednesday), with chances 20-50%. Interior locations will likely remain dry Wednesday, though convection overall looks to be widely scattered at best to end the work week. Gusty winds to around 50 mph will continue to be a threat in any stronger storms due to drier air aloft. Light offshore winds overnight remain less than 10 mph through the day, but back S/SE near the coast as the sea breeze develops.

Humid conditions, limited showers and storms, and a weak east coast sea breeze will maintain hot conditions through Friday. Highs slightly above normal in the lower to mid-90s will help to support heat indices 102-107+ degrees each afternoon. Will continue to monitor the need for additional Heat Advisories for at least portions of the area through Friday. Regardless, be sure to practice heat safety for the remainder of the week.

Saturday-Tuesday...The Atlantic ridge strengthens into the weekend, with the ridge axis stretching westward towards the Florida peninsula through the period. Aloft, ridging consolidates over the northwestern Gulf coast. Despite ridging weakening slightly over the local area, an enhanced pocket of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to move into the peninsula. Therefore, PoPs look to remain below normal into early next week. Strong wind gusts will continue to be a threat due to dry air aloft. Also, hot conditions will likely continue, with highs remaining in the 90s and humid August dewpoints.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Overall favorable boating conditions are forecast through this weekend, as high pressure dominates the local pattern. Light offshore flow backs S/SE near the coast each day with the development of the sea breeze, but remains around 10 kts or less. Below normal coverage of showers and storms is forecast, though any storms will be capable of strong wind gusts to near 45 kts, in addition to lightning strikes. Seas 1-3 ft.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 155 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail at ECFL terminals outside of afternoon convection through the TAF period. The east coast sea breeze has developed and pushed inland of KSUA-KMLB, will be slower/later at northern coastal terminals, and arriving at KMCO and area terminals after 20Z. Light/VRB winds shift onshore 5-10 kts behind the boundary. ISO-SCT SHRA and ISO TSRA have developed INVOF and north of KMCO in higher moisture. This activity will generally shift southeast until reaching the sea breeze then slide south along the boundary through the rest of the afternoon and evening, but individual storm motion could become erratic. TSRA/SHRA diminish after 00Z. Winds become light/VRB again overnight. Winds become offshore 5-10 kts Wednesday in the late morning/early afternoon, delaying/slowing development of the east coast sea breeze. Highest afternoon TSRA chances along the coastal corridor, lower inland.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 93 76 93 / 10 30 30 40 MCO 77 95 77 95 / 20 10 10 40 MLB 78 93 77 92 / 10 20 20 30 VRB 75 93 75 92 / 10 30 20 30 LEE 77 94 77 94 / 10 10 10 40 SFB 77 95 77 94 / 10 20 20 50 ORL 78 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 40 FPR 77 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.