textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Scattered lightning storms are expected this afternoon and evening with 40-60% chance of rain. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall, which may cause localized minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

- Storms will begin to focus more over the interior from this weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing a diffuse Atlantic sea breeze more quickly inland.

- Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 100 to 106 today and Saturday. Heat indices may approach 108 next week. When planning to be outdoors, stay well hydrated and consider taking frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Today...Little change is forecast as low level Atlantic ridge axis remains nearly stationary across south central FL. And aloft, we remain sandwiched between a pair of mid level highs with weak troughing extending down over the FL panhandle/NE Gulf. Light sfc winds in vicinity of the ridge axis will allow the Atlc sea breeze to form and push inland sparking scattered showers and lightning storms during the early to mid afternoon near the coast, then focusing on the interior late in the day into the early evening. Storms may linger a little past sunset near or over Orlando metro. A S/SW flow between 850-700mb is more prevalent across northern sections which could bring a few storms back toward the Volusia coast this evening. Severe weather is not anticipated with unimpressive mid level lapse rates and 500 mb temp forecast around -6C. Nonetheless, precip water values around 2 inches will promote very heavy rain with localized amounts around 3 inches possible in a 60-90 minute period. This will cause temporary flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. The stronger storms will also contain frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 55 mph.

Prior to storms, temperatures will be seasonably hot and humid in the low to mid 90s with heat indices 100-106.

Sat-Thu...The weak troughing over the NE Gulf will begin to retrograde westward and fill this weekend and early next week allowing one strong ridge aloft to become dominant across the SE U.S. This will lift the low level ridge axis north of our area resulting in onshore flow becoming dominant in the low and mid levels. Scattered storms are forecast each day pushing quickly inland with the Atlc sea breeze, eventually colliding with the Gulf breeze near Orlando or points west late in the day. Immediate coastal communities will see lower rain chances and also warmer overnight lows due to the persistent onshore flow, likely holding in the upper 70s/lower 80s there. Expect hot and humid daytime conditions as we welcome September with peak heat indices climbing a bit - possibly reaching 108 in spots next week - as suppression/subsidence increase with the building ridge aloft.

MARINE

Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, reaching the local waters today and moving north of the area by the weekend and remaining into early next week. Light south to southwest flow will persist through Friday, with winds becoming onshore (east to southeast) and increasing to around 12 KT each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Winds will then shift onshore into the weekend as the high pressure moves north of the area. Seas 1-2ft before increasing to 2-3ft this weekend and into. early next week. A few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong wind gusts remain possible through Friday. Scattered onshore showers and storms will then be possible this weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 714 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will become south to southwest and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning. Winds will back onshore (east to southeast) in the afternoon behind the east coast sea breeze. Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon, first initializing along the coast with the sea breeze in the early afternoon before shifting inland across the interior by late afternoon. Have maintained VCTS starting at 17/18Z along the coast and 18/20Z across the interior. Have included TEMPOs for all sites starting 18/20Z for MVFR conditions in TSRA. Any lingering activity should diminish around 02Z. Winds will then become light and variable once again overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 75 89 76 / 40 40 40 20 MCO 94 76 93 76 / 50 50 70 20 MLB 91 77 90 77 / 30 20 50 30 VRB 91 75 90 76 / 50 30 50 40 LEE 91 75 92 76 / 60 30 70 30 SFB 93 75 93 76 / 50 50 70 20 ORL 93 76 93 77 / 50 50 70 20 FPR 91 75 90 76 / 50 20 60 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.