textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Patchy to areas of dense fog have pushed into Lake and inland Volusia Counties this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 6 AM.

- Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions today and continuing for much of this week due to persistent onshore flow and building seas. There will be a Moderate to High risk of rip currents at all area beaches through this week.

- A few showers will be possible from Cape Canaveral to Kissimmee southward today. Increasing rain chances Tuesday onward as moisture increases across the area, with isolated lightning storms possible.

- Temperatures are forecast to trend warmer through this week, with afternoon highs reaching 5 to 10 degrees above normal by late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Today-Tonight... Patchy to areas of dense fog have developed and moved into Lake and inland Volusia counties this morning. Visibilities down to one quarter mile or less in dense fog. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued until 6 AM. Any lingering fog is forecast to dissipate shortly after sunrise.

High pressure aloft will remain across Florida and the Gulf waters through the day. Surface high pressure centered over the NE US will continue to build across the Deep south and the Florida peninsula. Locally, north to northeast winds will persist through the day, with speeds around 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph possible at times, especially as the sea breeze enhances the onshore flow. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the afternoon and push onshore and inland. While drier air has filtered across the northern portion of the CWA, residual moisture across the southern CWA from a frontal boundary that has pushed into the Florida Straits will remain in place as forecast PW values range from 08-1.0" from Cape Canaveral southward. This will support a low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers from Cape Canaveral to Kissimmee southward and the adjacent Atlantic waters through the day. With everywhere else remaining mostly dry. Lightning storms are not forecast at this time (probability less than 15%). There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers developing and pushing onshore overnight, with some of these showers pushing inland.

The warming trend continues with seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures forecast today under partly sunny skies. Afternoon highs range from mid to upper 70s along the coast, and upper 70s to low 80s across the interior. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s under partly cloudy skies. There is a Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today. ALways swim near a lift guard.

Tuesday-Sunday...Upper level high pressure across the Gulf on Tuesday will strengthen as it shifts eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the Atlantic by the weekend. At the surface, high pressure off the northeast US will slowly shift eastward to the north-central Atlantic by mid-week, with the axis remaining over the eastern US and the Florida peninsula through the period. Locally, this will result in onshore flow persisting through next weekend. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon. Warm moist air will filter in from the Atlantic in the onshore flow on Tuesday, with forecast PW values ranging from 1.2- 1.5" through the period. This will support an increase in rain chances across the local Atlantic waters as well as a medium (30- 50%) chance of showers each day across east central Florida. There is a low (20%) chance for lightning storm development each afternoon through at least late week, though confidence remains low. Main storm hazards will be occasional lightning strikes and gusty winds. Any lingering showers or storms will diminish into the overnight hours, with ongoing development possible across the waters each night.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend, with the warmest temperatures occurring across the interior each day as onshore flow and the east coast sea breeze helping keep the coast slightly cooler. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s on Tuesday and warming to low to mid 80s by late week. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s through the extended period, which is slightly above normal. There will be a High risk of rip currents each day due to increasing onshore flow and waves. Entering the surf is not advised.

MARINE

Issued at 233 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Today- Friday... Deteriorating boating conditions today as onshore winds freshen, increasing to 15 to 22 knots through the day and evening. Seas 3-5 ft today will increase to 4-7 ft tonight across the local Atlantic waters. Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast to persist through much of the week. Small Craft should exercise caution in all the offshore waters today as winds increase to 15-20 KT. Small Craft Advisories may be needed tonight in the offshore waters as seas build to 7ft and winds increase to around 20 KT. Seas slightly subside to 4-6ft on Tuesday night and 4-5ft on Friday. Winds on Tuesday become more east to southeast and decease slightly to 15-20 KT, persisting through late week.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the local Atlantic waters each day and night as warm, moist, onshore flow persists and creates a favorable environment for development. Some of these showers may make it onshore and push inland, especially Tuesday onward. Isolated lightning storms will be possible mainly Tuesday and Thursday. Any storms that manage to develop would likely be capable of producing lightning strikes and gusty winds.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 630 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Fog lingers thru 14z at LEE and a TEMPO continues there. Conditions improve mid/late morning with easterly winds 10-14 knots and gusts 15-20 knots (esp. coastal sites). SCT marine stratocu (FL025-045) will move onshore thru the day. Will need to monitor potential for BR/FG again at northern sites Tue. morning, though confidence is low at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 61 77 62 / 10 10 40 20 MCO 79 63 80 65 / 10 10 40 10 MLB 77 63 78 65 / 20 30 50 30 VRB 78 64 79 65 / 20 40 50 30 LEE 80 60 81 63 / 0 10 30 10 SFB 79 61 81 64 / 10 10 40 10 ORL 80 63 81 65 / 10 10 40 10 FPR 78 63 79 64 / 20 40 40 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.