textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues into early this week. Residents and visitors to Central Florida's Atlantic beaches should stay out of the ocean.

- Higher rain coverage and increasingly strong onshore winds are forecast next week, as a cold front moves through the state. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially along the coast.

- Increasingly hazardous beach and boating conditions are expected into at least mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1020 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Sea breeze collision across Lake County generated a line of showers and storms that continue to gradually diminish this evening. Some locally heavy rainfall has occurred with some of the slower moving storms up to 1-3 inches this evening. Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue through to just after midnight, mainly across to just east of the I-4 corridor as this activity continues to weaken as it shifts slowly east-northeast. Mostly dry conditions then forecast overnight, with the exception of a slight chance for onshore moving showers and maybe a storm along the Treasure Coast late tonight into early Monday morning. Still not much agreement in hi-res guidance on fog development, but could see some patchy fog late tonight/early Monday morning, especially near to NW of I-4 where some of the locally heavier rainfall occurred.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Current-Tonight...High pressure's influence continues to weaken as it slides further seaward with the approach of a cold front. This boundary will settle into north-central FL by sunrise Mon morning. Aloft, weak, nearly zonal flow exists with occasional weak impulses traversing the FL peninsula embedded within the flow. The pressure gradient remains fairly weak with SE flow up to 10 mph, up to 10-15 mph (gusts to around 20 mph) along the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Highs should realize L-M80s for most, with a few U80s within reach along the Kissimmee River and N/W of I-4. PWAT values surge into late day with values 1.45-1.70" - highest across the I-4 corridor where a late day sea breeze collision will take place.

Scattered (30-50%) showers and lightning storms are forecast into early-mid evening. Steering flow is light, 5-10 mph, toward the east/northeast so some activity may drift back toward the coast into mid-late evening before diminishing or pushing off of the coast. A few storms could be strong, esp where boundaries collide, with primary storm threats of lightning strikes, gusty winds locally to 45 mph, small hail, and locally heavy downpours.

We may see increasing clouds overnight with the approach of the aforementioned front. Generally light offshore flow develops late this evening and overnight. Conditions humid and lows remain mild in the 60s.

Mon-Mon Night...The frontal boundary settles southward through the coverage warning area with initial northerly flow immediately behind it. Winds continue to veer NNE/NE during the day. Wind speeds will approach 10-15 mph during the day, perhaps 15-20 mph across the I-4 corridor late day/evening with some higher gusts as the pgrad remains tightest here. Cloud cover will also increase with frontal passage and PWATs will surge to 1.45-1.75" nearly areawide. Weak troughing aloft will develop over the Gulf as winds "back" to SW and pieces of shortwave energy push across the peninsula, esp evening/overnight as upper support increases. A small shower threat will exist during the morning, then SCT-NMRS convection is forecast into the afternoon and night. Highest coverage over the interior during the day and projected toward the coast during the night period. Storm steering will again be out of the southwest around 10 mph. A few strong storms are possible with main convective threats of lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and torrential downpours. Some minor/nuisance flooding may be possible for locations that receive multiple rounds. Highs still expected to realize near 80F to L80s at the coast with L-M80s further into the interior. Lows continue in the L-M60s for most.

Tue-Thu...The position of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be key thru mid-week in terms of highest PoPs and greatest heavy rain potential. The Weather Prediction Center has placed much of ECFL in a Marginal Outlook for excessive rainfall for Tue, and a bit further inland into Wed. General "troughiness" aloft will continue during this period which will aid convection. Convergence in the low-levels will be enhanced with the strong onshore flow. We are expecting convergent convective bands to develop along the coast. Coverage of showers and embedded storms will be "higher" than normal for this time of year (50-80%). Confidence in exactly where these bands set up and estimates of precip will be difficult. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected with confidence increasing and "training" echoes will promote a flooding threat as the event continues. A Flood Watch may eventually be required, but much of the area remains dry at present and can initially take some bouts of heavy rainfall. At the least, we are expecting some flooding of prone urban and poorly drained areas.

For now, we are messaging peak amounts during this period of 2-4" along much of the coast, locally 5-7" in play here. For the interior, 1-3" and locally 4". Some areas may not receive these amounts and some could receive more, again much depending on surface/upper air features and where banding sets up. Coverage and highest accumulations forecast to peak during the overnight hours. This rainfall will certainly help bring some relief from ongoing drought conditions, however, too much rain too quickly could lead to flooding issues, especially with any persistent banding of heavier showers or storms.

With the perceived frontal boundary somewhere across south-central FL, strengthening high pressure will push across the Atlc Seaboard creating a rather tight pressure gradient spreading southward during the day on Tue. This will increase onshore flow (NERLY) areawide, Tue-Thu, with windy/gusty conditions, esp along the (Volusia/Space) coast. Gusts approach 25-35 mph on Tue - highest along the coast and northward, areawide on Wed - perhaps up to 35-45 mph, again highest I-4 corridor northward and Volusia/Space coasts. Breezy and gusty winds continue into Thu - perhaps a little lower wind speeds than on Wed. Elevated winds will also continue each evening and overnight.

High coverage of clouds and precip will lead to below normal temperatures in the 70s Tue-Thu. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s.

On top of all the unpleasantness above, strong onshore breezes will cause dangerous conditions along the coast, including rough, pounding surf and life-threatening rip currents persisting into Thu/Fri. Rapidly building surf spreading southward on Tue, with breakers reaching 9-12 ft by late Wed. Minor to moderate beach and dune erosion will be possible surrounding the twice-daily high tides beginning on Wed.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...

Fri-Sun...This period continues to hold some uncertainty, as models diverge on features off of the Southeast US coast. This will have implications for how much moisture lingers over the Florida peninsula, and therefore rain chances. Coverage of showers and storms gradually look to diminish, though the question will be how soon and by how much. For now, we have scattered showers and storms diminishing in coverage each day Fri into the weekend. Initially, we continue to deal with the breezy onshore winds, with high pressure remaining over the eastern US. Winds will not be quite as strong as mid-week, as the old boundary washes out and the pressure gradient slowly relaxes. With a lower coverage of clouds, expect to see high temperatures creep back upward, though onshore flow will keep maxes in the U70s to around 80F near the coast, with L80s inland. Lows consistent and in the L-M60s, perhaps U60s at the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Gradually improving boating conditions, if only briefly, as seas continue to slowly subside. ESE winds 10-15 kts gradually veering more S/SW overnight and decreasing to 5-10 kts. May see some ISOLD-SCT, offshore-moving, convection this evening and overnight. A weakening front is then forecast to move into the local waters on Mon, lingering across the area thru mid-week. Unsettled conditions are expected to develop early in the week continuing mid to late week. Coverage of showers and embedded lightning storms will increase during this time with periods of heavy rainfall, lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and higher associated seas. With proximity to the front and strong high pressure settling into the Eastern Seaboard, both (onshore) winds and seas will increase becoming hazardous to dangerous in category. Advisory to Gale conditions expected as we venture (esp) into Mon night-Fri. Seas forecast to build to 11-16 ft, with higher individual waves likely. Conditions across the intracoastal will be extremely rough and wind-chopped.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Isolated lingering showers overnight with VFR conditions generally prevailing. Patchy fog/MVFR CIGs possible esp VRB/FPR. Shower and storm chances increase into Monday (60-70%) with a front that will approach and progress slowly southward through the area. Numerous showers and scattered storms forecast into Monday afternoon and continuing into the evening. Kept VCTS starting at 19Z across the interior, with an earlier start around 17Z along the coast from MLB southward as sea breeze begins to develop. Will likely need TEMPO TS with IFR/MVFR conditions for some terminals roughly 19Z-00Z followed by prevailing IFR/MVFR cigs build in behind the front.

Winds will be light and variable through early Mon, becoming N/NE 8-12 knots as front crosses northern terminals and E/NE along the coast south of the Cape as sea breeze forms into the afternoon. Winds then increase further behind the front becoming breezy to windy (14-19 knots, gusts to 25-27 knots) behind the front from KMCO northward after 20-21Z. Highest gusts will be at DAB Mon aftn.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 78 63 71 64 / 60 80 80 40 MCO 82 64 70 65 / 80 70 80 40 MLB 82 66 75 67 / 70 80 80 60 VRB 83 65 76 66 / 70 80 80 70 LEE 82 62 72 63 / 60 70 70 30 SFB 81 64 72 63 / 70 80 80 40 ORL 82 64 72 64 / 80 70 80 40 FPR 83 64 76 65 / 60 80 80 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-570.

Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for AMZ550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555.

Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ575.