textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- Into the holiday weekend, there is a 30-50% chance of mainly afternoon and evening lightning storms over the interior. Wind gusts to 40-45 mph locally, brief torrential rain, and occasional lightning strikes will accompany the strongest storms.

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists through the weekend. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged!

- Continued above-normal temperatures, even at night. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk through Memorial Day Weekend. This affects those sensitive to heat or without cooling or hydration.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Current-Tonight...Afternoon temps again in the U80s at the coast with 90F to L90s inland and peak heat indices generally in the M- U90s. Surface high pressure ridging across the western Atlc north of central FL continues to promote an onshore flow. ESE winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph (esp behind local sea breeze) will become light during the evening and overnight. Isolated Atlc showers that drifted onshore this morning across the Volusia/Brevard coasts will continue to push inland (20-30%) thru this afternoon with a few lightning storms across the interior, though most locations will remain dry. Activity will shift into WCFL ahead of sunset, with additional light shower activity across the adjacent coastal waters overnight, some of which may affect coastal locales. Overnight lows remain above normal in the 70s with conditions humid.

A HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents continues into the holiday weekend at ALL central FL Atlc beaches. Entering the dangerous surf remains strongly discouraged.

Memorial Day Weekend...The rinse and repeat forecast continues into at least early next week. The surface ridge off of the mid Atlc coast edges a bit further southward late this weekend. Ridging aloft gradually builds back over the Florida peninsula. Expect ESE/SE winds to continue, increasing to 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25 mph, each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes well inland. Max temperatures in the U80s-L90s continue, with overnight mins in the 70s and perhaps L80s at the immediate coast. Peak heat indices creep into the U90s-L100s as moisture increases.

Highest chances for convection continue over the western half of the peninsula. Will still see ISOLD-SCT showers/storms develop along the sea breeze in late mornings and early afternoons, before pushing westward into the afternoon/evening periods. PoPs 20-30% near the coast and 30-50% over the interior each day, as moisture builds (PWATs 1.60-1.85") thru Sun. Timing for precip at the coast mainly overnight, morning hours and perhaps early afternoon, with greatest chances across the interior in the afternoons and possibly early evenings. However, many areas will still remain dry through at least early next week. Main threats with any storms will be gusty winds locally, occasional lightning strikes, and brief heavy downpours. Storms will be slow-moving and capable of putting down 1-3" of rain in a short time locally, resulting in minor or nuisance flooding, esp over prone areas.

Tue-Fri...The ridge continues to slowly press southward towards the Bahamas thru mid-week, with the onshore flow continuing at least thru Tue/Wed. Some drier air passes across the area on Tue, then deeper moisture pools back into the area Wed-Fri as the weather pattern becomes a bit more "unsettled". This as the mid-level flow becomes more SWRLY and a more "troughy" pattern aloft takes shape across the FL peninsula with mid-level shortwave energy traversing the region. Will still see a daily sea breeze with diurnal boundary interactions and an increase in shower/storm activity across ECFL, esp as the storm steering becomes more southerly thru mid week, then westerly by Fri bringing more storms back toward the coast. PoPs closer to 30-40% areawide on Tue, then 50-70% Wed-Fri. Highs forecast in the U80s to L90s, but could be closer to 85-90F areawide depending on clouds/precip. Lows consistently above normal in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

High pressure ridging remains north of the local waters thru early next week. Prevailing onshore winds during the period with speeds at least 10-15 kts, but periods of 15-18 kts - perhaps up to 20 kts as the pgrad tightens later this weekend and early next week, leading to short periods of poor boating conditions. The ECSB develops and pushes well inland each day with generally no push- back of storms to the coast. Isolated to scattered showers (ISOLD lightning storms) are forecast. Seas 3-4 ft through early next week, except up to 5 ft well offshore and locally higher invof storms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection. East coast sea breeze near the coastal corridor has been fairly active this morning with ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA, especially from KMLB-KDAB necessitating TEMPOs. This activity will push inland through the afternoon and evening, although latest hi-res guidance casts some doubt whether coverage will remain SCT or become more ISO. Based on current radar trends continuing TEMPOS at KTIX-KDAB and added KSFB, but held off KMCO/ KISM where deep convection have struggled for now. Sea breeze collision will be east of the ECFL terminals in the late evening. SHRA/TSRA diminishes at KMCO and area terminals after 22Z (00Z at KLEE). Chances for onshore moving -SHRA return overnight. Higher coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected Saturday, though highest chances at this time mainly west of the ECFL terminals.

Winds SE-ESE at 7-13 kts gusting to around 20 kts, possibly pushing towards 15 kts gusting to 25 kts along the coast from KMLB-KSUA, gradually diminish overnight, then pick back up again Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 89 75 88 / 0 30 30 50 MCO 74 91 74 90 / 10 40 30 50 MLB 78 88 79 88 / 0 20 20 30 VRB 78 89 79 88 / 0 20 20 30 LEE 76 92 75 90 / 10 50 50 50 SFB 75 93 75 91 / 0 50 30 50 ORL 75 92 75 90 / 10 40 30 50 FPR 77 88 78 88 / 0 30 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.