textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Very hot and humid conditions continue into the weekend and next week. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM to 7 PM today. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and stay cool in the shade or air conditioning each day.

- Rain and Storm chances remain high today and tomorrow with a Marginal Risk (5-14%) for Severe Storms today, as well as a Marginal Risk (5-14%) for Excessive Rainfall today and tomorrow; the potential for flooding of urban and low lying areas exists today and tomorrow.

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches. Remember to swim near a lifeguard and to never enter the water alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies. Analysis charts show the western Atlantic ridge extended over southern Florida with a mid/upper level shortwave trough over the southeastern US. Current temperatures are in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s.

Scattered to numerous east-southeast moving showers (40-70%) and storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening hours as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous showers/storms. Southwest winds at 5-10mph with gusts to 15-20mph are expected to back east-southeast, mainly to the south of Volusia county and to the east-southeast of the Orlando Metro into this afternoon and evening with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Hi-res and deterministic guidance shows PVA lobes pivoting along and ahead of the base of a mid/upper level shortwave that is expected to track east over the southeastern US and northern Florida this afternoon and evening. Guidance shows MLCAPE between 2,000- 3,500 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 20-50kts, 3km EHI up to 1-4 today, SHIP up to 1.0, isolated spots of 3km helicity up to 200-350 m^2/S^2, SCP up to 1-6, STP up to 1, absolutely unstable mid-level lapse rates, SHIP up to 1.0, and PWATs up to 2.0-2.3" this afternoon. Thus, a Marginal Risk (5-14%) for severe storms exists, as well as a Marginal Risk (5-14%) for Excessive Rainfall (from Brevard county southward) with the potential for flooding of roadways and low-lying areas. The potential exist for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. Severe storms will have the potential (5-14%) to produce wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to 1" in diameter, frequent to excessive lightning, heavy rainfall (1- 2" with a 1-10 chance in excess of 2" up to 3-5"). Additionally, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions (less than 2% risk).

Afternoon highs in the mid 90s are forecast today with heat index values up to 108-111F degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM-7PM. Remember to stay hydrated, wear light colored clothing, shift outdoor work away from 10am to 7pm, and take frequent breaks from the heat. Above normal (2-5F+) to record low temperatures are forecast.

The Weekend... A similar forecast is expected on Saturday as PVA (vort max up to 75 1/S) over areas of east central Florida enhances lift for strong storms to develop into the afternoon and evening hours. Scattered to numerous east-southeast moving showers (50-80%) and lightning storms become choppy into this evening with are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening hours as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland (mainly along and east- southeast of the Orlando Metro) and converges with westerly flow and outflow from previous showers/storms. There is the potential for a few strong storms which will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts up to 40-55mph, heavy rainfall (1-2" with a 1- 10 chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 3-5"), and small hail. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out on Saturday (less than 2% risk). A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (5-14%) exists on Saturday with the potential for flooding of roadways and low- lying areas to the east of Lake and northwest Osceola counties. On Sunday, the mid/upper level support will have moved out of the east central Florida area and therefore rain chances (40-60%) are forecast to decrease slightly to end the weekend. However, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out which will be capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and . Temperatures will remain above normal (1-4F+) with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk exists this weekend. A Major HeatRisk can affect anyone without adequate cooling or hydration.

Monday-Thursday... Drier conditions are forecast into next week as high pressure develops over the eastern Gulf of America with the western Atlantic ridge to the east-southeast of east central Florida. Isolated to scattered showers (20-30/40% Monday-Wednesday and 30-50% on Thursday) and lightning storms are forecast into each afternoon as a weak east coast sea breeze moves inland and converges with weak west-southwest flow. Above normal (2-5F+) temperatures are expected to continue into next week with at least a Major HeatRisk through Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Today-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to today the western Atlantic ridge extended over southern Florida. Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast today and Saturday (a few of which will have the potential to become strong to severe). South-southwest winds are forecast to back south-southeast into this afternoon at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Winds are expected to generally veer west on Saturday before backing onshore near the coast into the afternoon. Seas of 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore are expected.

Sunday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected. Isolated to scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast into Saturday and Sunday afternoons/ evenings. The potential for a few strong storms exists. Southwest winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are expected to generally veer south-southeast into Sunday as a "cool" front sags across the far northern waters or just to the north of the waters. Seas to 1-2ft are forecast with up to 3ft on Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 637 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR outside of convection at ECFL terminals. Light SW-SSW winds early this morning increase to around 10 kts from the SW after 13Z, slowing/delaying development of the east coast sea breeze. The boundary is forecast to make an inland push after 19Z from KSUA-KTIX, and stay pinned near/offshore the coast to the north. Low confidence in convective evolution this afternoon. About half hi-res guidance develops ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA on the quick moving west coast sea breeze as early as 17Z, while the other half are CLR-ISO until the sea breeze collision along and near the coast after 21Z. Hedged TS impacts at KMCO and other I-4 terminals with PROB30, and enough confidence at KTIX-KSUA for TEMPOs. TSRA/SHRA impacts are forecast to continue at KMLB-KSUA through 02Z, and may linger as late as 06Z. Storm motion will be to the E-ESE. Strong to marginally severe TS capable of 50kt gusts are possible between 19Z-02Z. Quiet after convection dissipates or pushes offshore. Winds become light/VRB overnight. Early start and high coverage of SHRA/TSRA forecast Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 94 77 90 74 / 50 20 70 30 MCO 97 77 94 76 / 50 30 60 20 MLB 94 78 91 76 / 70 40 70 40 VRB 94 77 92 75 / 70 40 60 30 LEE 95 78 92 76 / 40 20 50 20 SFB 96 77 94 75 / 50 30 70 20 ORL 96 78 94 76 / 50 30 60 20 FPR 94 76 91 75 / 70 40 70 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.