textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Summer-like sea breeze pattern, with scattered afternoon showers and storms, will persist into next week. Main threats will be lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall from slow moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Always swim near a lifeguard!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Today-Tonight...The Florida peninsula will be sandwiched between ridging over the western Atlantic, stretching its axis across the Bahamas, and high pressure over the Gulf today. Light offshore flow prevails, becoming variable at times. However, will see winds back southeasterly this afternoon, with the development of the sea breeze, and increase to near 10 mph. Available moisture near 2" will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (PoPs 40-60%). Convection is forecast to begin along the sea breeze, near the coast, after around 2 PM. Then, transition inland through the afternoon, with a sea breeze collision over the interior, near the Orlando metro, by this evening. 500 mb temperatures remain warm at -5 to -6 C. But, steep low level lapse rates and precip loading could produce a few strong wind gusts this afternoon to near 50 mph. Slow storm motions 10 mph or less will also lead to a continued heavy rainfall threat.

Convection sustains itself along outflow boundaries through the evening hours, with some slow drift back towards the coast possible. Drier conditions develop by around midnight, then continue through the remainder of the overnight hours. Temperatures in the lower to mid-90s will feel noticeably warmer today, as heat indices reach 100-107 area-wide. This, combined with little overnight relief from lows in the mid to upper 70s, will produce at least a Moderate HeatRisk for much of the forecast area. Locations north and west of I-4, including the Orlando metro, are expected to see Major HeatRisk conditions. Include heat safety in your weekend plans and use caution during the heat of the day.

Sunday-Friday...The Atlantic ridge axis remains south of central Florida through most of next week, though models suggest a northward shift by late in the week. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging continues over the Gulf. Overall, the local pattern remains unchanged through the period. Moist PWATs continue to hover around 1.8-2.2", providing ample moisture for daily scattered showers and storms. Prevailing offshore flow will keep the highest PoPs (40-70%) over the eastern half of the peninsula. Most convection is forecast along the daily sea breeze, which will back winds near the coast southerly to southeasterly each afternoon. Therefore, expect peak convection in the afternoons, lingering into the evenings as cells drift offshore. Storm motions early in the week will remain slow, before an approaching front stalling across north Florida enhances the gradient (and offshore flow) mid-week. Main threats will continue to be gusty winds to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall, as 500 mb temperatures remain warm. With offshore flow increasing, could also see a few weak spin ups along the sea breeze.

Hot and humid conditions will linger through next week. Near to slightly above normal high temperatures in the lower to mid-90s are forecast. Moderate to Major HeatRisk will expand to much of the area by late in the week. Overnight low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for many areas will continue muggy conditions through the early morning hours. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

MARINE

Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail through the period, as high pressure maintains influence over the local Atlantic waters. Offshore winds back S/SE each afternoon as the sea breeze develops, with winds remaining 15 kts or less. The exception is forecast to be Monday night, when a tightening pressure gradient due to an approaching front increases winds offshore to 15-20 kts. Seas 1-3 ft.

Scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected each day, as they develop along the sea breeze. As offshore flow strengthens, chances for offshore-moving showers and storms during the late afternoons and evenings will increase. Boaters should use caution later in the day and watch the western sky for approaching storms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Light and variable winds persist at the terminals. Winds become onshore along the coast as the east coast sea breeze develops, moving inland and causing the interior terminals to become more southeasterly. Shower and storm coverage increases along the sea breeze, with coverage peaking as the sea breeze collision occurs. VCSH and VCTS are included at all terminals. TEMPOs have been added at MCO, ISM, and SFB between 21-23Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Will continue to monitor trends and amend these TEMPOs or add more as needed. Shower and storm activity diminishes beyond 00Z, with winds becoming light out of the southwest at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 76 92 76 / 40 20 50 30 MCO 93 76 92 75 / 60 60 60 20 MLB 91 77 90 76 / 40 20 60 30 VRB 91 75 91 75 / 30 10 60 30 LEE 94 77 92 77 / 40 30 20 10 SFB 95 77 94 76 / 60 50 60 20 ORL 94 77 92 77 / 60 60 60 20 FPR 90 75 90 74 / 40 10 60 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.