textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Critical Fire Weather conditions are forecast Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Brevard and Osceola northward from 12PM to 8PM.

- Hot and dry conditions through Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 90s nearing daily records.

- Rain chances begin to rise Friday into the weekend as a front nears and stalls just north of the area, with highs remaining above normal in the low to mid 90s for much of the area, as well as peak heat indices approaching the mid to upper 90s.

UPDATE

Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Continuing to monitor the threat for critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon and evening, and have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning with this evening update. Gusty southwest flow should slow or even limit the development of the east coast sea breeze. This will further result in increasing hot and dry conditions with temperatures climbing through the 90s and minRH values falling to the upper 20s to mid 30s across much of the area. The Red Flag Warning includes areas from Brevard and Osceola northward where critically low RH values are most likely to coincide with wind speeds around 15 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Current-Thursday...The primary weather concern in the short term continues to be the warmer than normal (hot) afternoon temperatures (near record warmth) this period, as well as mainly dry conditions. Please see Climate section below. Thu will be the hottest with widespread M90s for max values and potentially a few U90s. The ECSB will provide some relief this afternoon as it marches inland, but on Thu a developing, stronger, offshore flow, as the ridge axis slides south, will limit this feature to the immediate Treasure Coast and it will likely be delayed, thus allowing many coastal locations to soar into at least the L90s.

Residents and visitors sensitive to heat should take precautions for these well above normal temperatures. Remember, NEVER leave children or pets in cars for any period of time. The increasing heat, as well as dry and breezy conditions Thursday will also lead to an increased fire weather danger tomorrow.

Fri-Sun...Previous Modified Discussion...A weak cold front slides southward into north Florida and stalls Fri morning. This boundary will linger just north of the area through at least early Sat before it begins to lift back northward into Sun. This front will lead to an increase in moisture that will bring a return of isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours as sea breeze boundaries push inland and collide. PoPs 20-40% are limited to areas Okeechobee northward on Fri keeping much of the Treasure Coast dry, then expands across the entire region by Sun. Lingering drier air aloft will lead to the potential for isolated strong storms each day, with primary threats of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40-45 mph and locally heavy rainfall.

With the front remaining to the north and mid-level ridge center moving slowly eastward across the Caribbean, temperatures will remain hotter than normal. Highs will still reach the L90s for much of the area, with a few M90s possible across the southern interior. Increasing humidity will lead to peak heat index values in the M- U90s both Fri/Sat and may increase to the U90s to around 100 degrees on Sun. Potential heat impacts, particularly for heat-sensitive individuals, will therefore persist through the weekend.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion.

Mon-Tue...Large scale trough aloft will push through the eastern U.S. into early next week, which will shift a weak cold front through the area into early next week. This will increase shower and storm chances into Monday (up to 40-50%), with rain chances then decreasing into Tuesday (20-40%). Highs are forecast to remain above normal, in the low 90s on Monday, but the frontal passage is currently forecast to drop temperatures to more normal values Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Thru Tonight...Continued favorable boating conditions. The high pressure ridge axis shifts across the local waters this afternoon, then southward overnight. Onshore winds shift S/SSW tonight with speeds AOB 15 kts. Seas generally 2-3 ft.

Thu-Sun...Boating conditions to remain generally favorable into the weekend, though as the ridge axis shifts southward expect an increase in moisture as a weak cold front settles into north-central FL lingering mostly north of the area into early weekend before eventually lifting back north. Southerly winds 10-15 kts on Thu become offshore Thu night/early Fri, then back to onshore again Fri aftn with sea breeze development and progression inland. Winds continue generally S/SE thru the weekend with speeds 10-15 kts, perhaps a little stronger Sun aftn. Seas typically continue 2-3 ft and perhaps 4 ft well offshore late Sun as winds slightly increase. Seas also higher invof ISOLD-SCT showers/lightning storms late Fri into the weekend

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR to continue thru at least 00z Fri. SW winds increase steadily after 14z to 10-14 kt with gusts 20-25 kt after 18z, turning more WSW. The sea breeze is likely to remain pinned near the east coast as a result. The probability for MVFR CIGs increases 03z Fri. onward as a front approaches from the north.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast into Thursday afternoon, as winds increase out of the southwest and Min RH values fall to the upper 20s to mid 30s for much of the area. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Osceola and Brevard counties northward Thursday where critically low RH and wind speeds around 15 mph are most likely to coincide. The east coast sea breeze will likely form south of the Cape, but will be delayed, switching winds to the southeast Thursday afternoon. This may keep Min RH values above critical values along the immediate coast south of the Cape where the sea breeze is able to form. Dispersion becomes Very Good to Excellent Thursday, which may lead to control issues. Back to Fair to Generally Good dispersion on Friday.

Isolated to scattered lightning storm chances begin to enter the forecast for portions of east central Florida Friday afternoon into the weekend as moisture slowly increases and sea breeze boundaries collide.

CLIMATE

Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for today, May 6th and Thursday, May 7th:

Site May 6 May 7 Daytona 95 (1955) 93 (1952) Leesburg 93 (2007) 94 (1984) Sanford 95 (1952) 94 (2009) Orlando 98 (1922) 98 (1915) Melbourne 94 (2022) 91 (1980) Vero Beach 95 (2022) 93 (1947) Fort Pierce 95 (2022) 95 (1906)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 97 74 86 73 / 0 10 20 20 MCO 96 74 92 74 / 0 10 40 30 MLB 94 75 88 77 / 0 0 20 20 VRB 95 72 89 77 / 0 0 10 10 LEE 94 74 91 73 / 0 10 40 10 SFB 97 73 92 73 / 0 10 40 30 ORL 96 74 92 74 / 0 10 40 30 FPR 94 71 90 76 / 0 0 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.