textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 203 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Isolated onshore-moving showers and sprinkles will continue into tonight.

- Rain chances increase Thursday afternoon/evening well ahead of the next front, with isolated storms also possible.

- A gradual warm-up will continue through late work-week, with highs above normal, in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Current-Tonight...KMLB 88D continues to show sprinkles/light showers over the local coastal waters, with some of this activity occasionally making its way onto the coast before dissipating as it ventures into the interior. Expect this trend to continue into tonight. Keeping PoPs 10-20pct across land. The high pressure ridge axis remains north of ECFL, thus promoting onshore flow (5-10 mph, except 10-15 mph along immediate coast). Winds veer a bit more ESE/SE into tonight becoming light. The low-level onshore flow is allowing marine stratocu to overspread the area as well, continuing into tonight - esp along the coast. Temperatures in the M-U70s this afternoon will cool off this evening and overnight into the U50s to around 60F across the interior and generally L60s near the coast, except M-U60s immediate Treasure Coast. Not keen on fog development overnight, at least with 925 mb winds 15-20 kts - though may have to be mindful of some low stratus late. If fog were to play a role late tonight/early Thu morning - best bet would be north of I-4.

Thu-Fri...Expect ISOLD sprinkles/light shower activity to continue into Thu morning. PWAT values increase Thu aftn-night to 1.45-1.65 inches across ECFL. This as a weak cold front approaches the area, poised to move through during the day on Fri. A weakening mid- level trough will also accompany the front and aid in its passage. Precip chances ramp up further to 30-40pct (Thu-Thu night) diminishing into Fri. ISOLD lightning storms cannot be ruled out late aftn/Thu night - though instability remains rather limited. Primary storm threats will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief downpours. Southerly flow increases during the day on Thu, veering SWRLY Thu night/early Fri, then W/NW/N (post-frontal) thru Fri aftn/night. Weak high pressure begins to build back into the region Fri night.

The warming trend continues into Thu near 80F to L80s, except U70s across coastal Volusia. Highs Fri in the M70s for coastal Volusia and U70s to L80s elsewhere. Lows mild Thu overnight (pre-frontal) in the 60s areawide. A cool-down (drier air) arrives Fri overnight with M-U40s north/west of I-4 and L50s southward across the interior and Volusia coast. M-U50s elsewhere except L-M60s immediate St. Lucie coast and across eastern Martin County.

Sat-Tue...Previous Modified...High pressure builds in quickly behind the recent front, pushing toward the Mid-Atlantic coast and offshore into Sat on a weakening trend. This area of high pressure is then reinforced into early next week as another weak front approaches Florida. Winds quickly veer onshore and remain out of the east- northeast for much of the period. It should remain mostly dry through the weekend into early next week, but may see the return of isolated onshore-moving showers as airmass gradually moistens and onshore flow increases, especially into early next week. Temperatures continue near to above normal, with highs mostly in the 70s, except L80s possible for portions (generally south of Orlando) of the area Sun. Lows will be in the 50s to L60s areawide.

MARINE

Issued at 203 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Afternoon-Tonight...Erly winds 10-15 knots will become SERLY into tonight increasing a bit to 12-17 kts, as a high pressure ridge axis across the Atlantic remains north of the region. Potential Cautionary Statements for well offshore may be necessary (if winds increase a bit more) and will need to be monitored in case of inclusion into the forecast. Seas continue 3-5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and sprinkles will continue to be possible across the coastal waters moving west-northwest and onshore along the coast.

Thu-Fri...Winds continue to veer SE/S into Thu and S/SW Thu night as a weak cold front approaches from the NW. Wind speeds still near 12- 17 kts Thu and up to 15-20 knots offshore Thu night, leading to poor boating conditions. Winds continue to veer to the SW/WSW Fri morning as front nears, then switching to the NW/N behind the front Fri aftn into Fri night as front moves across the local waters. Winds are forecast to remain around 15-20 knots offshore early Fri as the front approaches and then will be closer to 10-15 knots as this boundary moves through, with seas building to 6 ft well offshore of Volusia and Brevard counties.

Rain chances increase late Thu into Thu night, with scattered showers and isolated lightning storms possible across the waters, especially into the afternoon and night. Rain chances then gradually diminish into Fri as front crosses the waters.

Sat-Sun...High pressure builds into the area behind the recent front. More favorable boating with mostly dry conditions are forecast into the weekend. Winds quickly veer onshore, with speeds remaining around 5-10 kts. Seas subside to 3-5 ft Sat to 2-4 ft Sun.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1222 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period. A few showers/sprinkles continue to move onshore this morning, though most are diminishing before reaching interior terminals. This activity is expected to continue through the afternoon. While additional light showers will be possible along the coast overnight, coverage is forecast to be low enough to prevent the need for continued VCSH. Additional showers will then be possible by late Thursday morning along the Treasure Coast, before expanding after 18Z, as moisture increases over the area. Onshore flow becomes increasingly southeast into Thursday. Winds around 10 kts today become light overnight, then increase to 10-15 kts late Thursday morning and into the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 78 63 76 / 20 30 40 10 MCO 61 81 66 78 / 10 30 40 10 MLB 64 80 66 80 / 20 30 40 10 VRB 64 81 66 81 / 20 30 40 10 LEE 59 80 64 76 / 10 30 40 10 SFB 60 80 65 78 / 10 30 40 10 ORL 61 80 66 77 / 10 30 40 10 FPR 64 81 66 81 / 20 30 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.