textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Hot and humid conditions continue this week with Moderate to Major Heat Risk for all of East Central Florida. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day.

- Lower storm coverage is forecast Wednesday then storm coverage will increase into late week. Scattered to numerous storms from Thursday onward will move toward the Atlantic coast each afternoon and evening, a few strong storms will be possible.

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all central Florida Atlantic beaches into late week. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Current/Tonight...Scattered showers and lightning storms will move east northeast at 20 mph toward the Atlantic coast through late afternoon with the highest coverage north of a Kenansville to Melbourne line. A few strong storms may develop with locally heavy rainfall, cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 40-50 mph. The strength of the low level WSW flow should keep the east coast breeze pinned near coastal sections with residual shower and storm chances mainly confined to coastal zone during the evening hours. Shower/storm chances across the coastal counties will diminish by 10-11pm with dry conditions overnight.

Wed...The mid level ridge will build slightly across central and south FL with some lowering of the mean mid level moisture levels over the area. This will bring lower afternoon convective coverage in the early to mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms should be favored by late afternoon and early evening near the slow moving east coast breeze and also some activity should develop over the interior by late afternoon. Hot temperatures with mid 90s for highs across much of the area away from coast and barrier islands and a delayed start to convection will heighten the risk from the heat. A major to moderate heat risk is expected with max heat index values between 102 and 107 degrees. Remember to stay hydrated, wear light colored clothing, shift outdoor work away from 10am to 4pm, and take frequent breaks from the heat.

Thursday-Friday (modified)...Shower and lightning storm chances increase to end the workweek. Guidance increasing PWATs over east central Florida as a shortwave trough moves across the southeast states Thursday and off the SE Atlantic coast Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each afternoon with the highest coverage across northern sections Thu and eastern sections Friday. The potential exists for isolated strong storms each day which will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The greatest potential for strong storms exists on on Friday with increased upper level support. Afternoon highs will reach the the mid 90s across the interior both days with maximum heat index values as high as 102-107F.

Saturday-Tuesday...The western Atlantic ridge is forecast to weaken and shift southeast into the weekend as a shortwave trough deepens over the eastern US and the western Atlantic. Guidance indicates that shower and lightning storm chances will increase over the weekend with PWATs as high as 2.0"-2.4". The potential exists for strong storms with a frontal boundary over northern Florida, however, the forecast for east central Florida will be dependent on the position of the frontal boundary as it sags southward over the southern US and northern Florida. Highs in the lower to mid 90s will continue into early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Tonight-Wednesday... Favorable winds and sea conditions are expected with the western Atlantic ridge across south Florida through Wed. Scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast across the nearshore Atlantic waters by late afternoon and evening. West-southwest winds are forecast to back south-southeast into each afternoon.

Thursday-Sunday...The surface ridge will remain across south FL with S/SW flow late this week becoming westerly Saturday and variable Sunday as the tail end of a frontal boundary approaches the area. Generally favorable wind and sea conditions are expected, though lightning storm chances will increase late this week and over the upcoming weekend posing a hazard to small craft.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The evening and early overnight period has remained somewhat active with re-developing showers and ISOLD lightning storms; likely a result of instability, deep moisture, and boundaries galore. Additional convection is moving from WCFL to ECFL and will see if it holds together. Will monitor for "Vicinity" wording and/or TEMPO groups as necessary. Mainly VFR continues outside of convection. Light & variable winds become SW up to around 12 kts on Wed and will "back" onshore 10-15 kts (higher gusts) across the Space & Treasure coasts. While the ECSB will make only minimal and slow movement inland during the afternoon, the WCSB will push fairly easily across the peninsula with ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers & storms. While lower overall coverage is expected, highest PoPs should occur late day/early evening near coastal terminals as SWRLY steering flow takes activity towards the coast and offshore. MVFR (local IFR) with convection. Activity will diminish thru mid evening. "Vicinity" wording inherited for Wed during the day and will entertain TEMPO groups as confidence increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 77 93 77 / 30 10 70 30 MCO 98 77 96 77 / 30 10 60 30 MLB 94 78 92 79 / 30 30 40 30 VRB 94 77 94 78 / 20 30 30 20 LEE 94 78 94 78 / 10 10 50 10 SFB 96 78 96 77 / 20 20 70 40 ORL 96 78 96 78 / 30 10 70 30 FPR 94 76 94 77 / 20 30 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.