textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Hot and muggy conditions continue the rest of the week and into the holiday weekend, with peak heat indices in the U90s to L-M100s each afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast most days.

- Ample moisture, daytime heating and boundary collisions will result in scattered to locally numerous showers and lightning storms into the Fourth of July weekend.

- At least a Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents at area beaches heading into the Fourth of July weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Current-Tonight...One more day with onshore-moving showers (ISOLD lightning storm) during the morning, with activity favoring the interior (esp south of Orlando) into the afternoon. Coverage may be less than previous days, with deepest moisture confined toward Lake Okee, and primary storm impacts of lightning strikes, gusty winds locally, and heavy downpours. Storm motion will remain slow/erratic. By early/mid evening, most of the activity should be across WCFL & SWFL. Mostly dry conditions overnight as onshore flow/convergence will be light/weak.

Widespread Moderate to Isolated Major HeatRisk with max temps in the U80s L90s (inland). Peak heat indices mostly in the U90s to L100s, but could see up to around 105F surrounding Lake Okee and Martin County. Warm & humid at night with lows in the L-U70s.

Fri-Sun...Generally light surface winds veer more SE/S/SSW as a weak pressure gradient exists thru this period. Mid-level temps relatively warm -4.5C to -5.0C to begin the period, but gradually cool to -6.0C to -7.0C Sat/Sun. A few mid-level impulses will aid convection over the weekend. Higher moisture values across south- central FL on Fri surge north across central FL Sat/Sun. Storm steering forecast light southerly but diurnal boundary collisions may make cell movement erratic at times as the ECSB will develop each afternoon and march well inland. SCT-NMRS (30-70%) showers and storms forecast Fri aftn/evening; highest south of Orlando where moisture is deepest. Continue to advertise NMRS (capped at 70%) convective chances Sat/Sun, though believe some of these (NBM) numbers may be too high. Activity will diminish thru the evening and hopefully in time not to hamper holiday weekend celebrations. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a key concern in addition to lightning strikes, and gusty winds.

Typical warm & humid summertime conditions continue with highs in the U80s to L90s, though could see some M90s esp across the I-4 corridor. Peak heat indices anywhere from 100-107F, staying for the moment just below Heat Advisory criteria, but yet Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Conditions at night remain warm and muggy. If you are planning to spend time outdoors, take plenty of breaks in the shade or A/C and stay well-hydrated to avoid heat- related fatigue/illness. Never leave pets or children in vehicles unattended!

Mon-Wed...Weak Atlc ridging extends across the central FL peninsula during this time. Generally SW flow at night/morning periods, "backing" onshore each afternoon with sea breeze formation and late day boundary collisions across the interior. Ample moisture will continue across the region for SCT to locally NMRS diurnal convection each day/evening. Max temps continue above normal in the L-M90s with peak heat indices picking back up to 100-107F each afternoon ahead of sea breezes and precip. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk expected. Lows remain consistent in the 70s with conditions humid.

MARINE

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Through Mon...Generally favorable boating conditions continue late week into the holiday weekend outside of ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms. NE/E winds into Thu evening will veer SE Fri and remain generally southerly (SE/S/SSW) into the weekend. Wind speeds remain below 15 kts and often below 10 kts thru the period. Seas 2-4 ft (up to 5 ft well offshore Cape north early in the period) become 3 ft or less Fri into the holiday weekend and early next week. Winds and seas locally higher invof storms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 659 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Rounds of isolated to scattered onshore moving showers continue along the Treasure Coast this morning with a lingering mention of VCSH at VRB/FPR/SUA. Scattered afternoon convection is primarily forecast across the interior from Orlando southward and have VCTS included at MCO/ISM after 17Z/18Z. Coverage is too low for PROB30 or TEMPOs at this time. Light northeast winds may be variable at times this morning before increasing 7-12 kts out of the east- northeast this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 76 90 76 / 20 0 20 0 MCO 91 75 93 76 / 30 10 60 10 MLB 89 78 90 77 / 20 10 40 10 VRB 90 77 90 76 / 30 10 60 10 LEE 92 76 93 77 / 20 10 40 20 SFB 92 75 94 77 / 20 10 50 10 ORL 91 76 93 77 / 30 10 50 10 FPR 89 75 90 75 / 40 10 60 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.