textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Rain and storm chances remain high today and Monday (70 to 80%). The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts from 50 to 55 mph.

- Localized flooding may result from repeated rounds of heavy rain and storms. There is a 5-10% chance of 2 to 4" amounts in less than 6 hours.

- Coverage of showers and storms will remain generally above normal this week, with the focus shifting toward the interior by midweek as the Atlantic sea breeze develops each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

An amplified weather pattern persists across the U.S. this morning. A mid-level disturbance across the Ohio Valley has spread negative H5 height anomalies from Central Florida to the Great Lakes. Evening guidance initialized a weak shortwave over North Florida. Ridging bookends the trough, both over the N Atlantic and the Desert Southwest. At the surface, low pressure is situated south of Indianapolis with a cold front extending down to Louisiana.

As the surface front slowly moves toward the Southern Appalachians to Mobile Bay, southwesterly winds in the H7 to H9 layer are expected to increase to around 25 kt today over the northern half of Florida. The pre-frontal environment is tropical in nature, with PWATs generally exceeding 2 inches from the Eastern Seaboard to the N Gulf. This general pattern is expected to change little through Monday, courtesy of the slow-moving nature of the trough over the Southeast U.S.

The grand ensemble indicates a pattern transition by Tuesday, especially Wednesday. As the trough fills and lifts away from Florida, mid-level ridging is expected to expand westward over the W Atlantic. Near-surface high pressure should lift northward, its axis near Central Florida before shifting north of I-10 by Thursday. Onshore flow should ensue with an increasingly dominant Atlantic breeze each day.

Global ensembles continue to indicate that an inverted trough will cross the Atlantic this week beneath the Bermuda high, reaching Florida by around Friday. A surge of anomalous moisture is forecast to accompany this feature late this week, perhaps lingering into next weekend.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Monday...

Periods of wet and stormy weather will continue, and outdoor plans may need adjusting if storms approach your location.

The weak shortwave over N Florida early this morning has sparked showers and occasional lightning over the northern half of the state. The highest chance for showers through mid-morning will be near this feature over the I-4 corridor and points northward. Despite plentiful cloud cover, guidance supports moderate destabilization by midday. Another round of eastward-moving showers and storms are forecast to sweep the peninsula. With the background winds increasing in the lowest 10 kft, storms may produce a few wind gusts of 50-55 mph. There is also a very small chance for a severe storm, with wind gusts around 60 mph.

Another relative lull in activity is expected by mid-evening into the overnight, but a low chance of showers will persist. Then on Monday, this rinse-and-repeat pattern should offer yet another round of scattered-numerous showers and storms from late morning through the afternoon. Once again, a few gusty storms are anticipated due to somewhat enhanced winds aloft.

We will also be watching for occasional to frequent lightning strikes and locally torrential rainfall where repeated bands of storms occur. Storms should move progressively, especially across the northern portions of the area. Slower storm motions would be favored near Lake O to the Treasure Coast. The 01/18Z REFS suggests a 5-10% chance of 6-hour rainfall tallies of 2-4"+, supporting a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall leading to localized flooding in poor drainage areas.

High temps should range from the upper 80s to the low 90s, with Monday the warmer of the next two days. Peak heat indices should range from 98 to 106. Southwest winds will be breezy at times outside of storms as well, from 15 to 25 mph.

Tuesday - Thursday...

A gradual transition in our weather is still forecast for the middle of the week. As high pressure lifts northward, offshore flow will diminish on Tuesday afternoon and become onshore by Wednesday. Each day, the Atlantic sea breeze should form. While it may remain relatively close to the coast on Tuesday, it should reach farther inland thereafter.

Guidance keeps total moisture values above normal on Tuesday before it slightly decreases to near normal beginning Wednesday. All told, storm chances will remain elevated for all areas on Tuesday afternoon, 60-70%. Then by Wednesday and Thursday, more typical storm coverage is anticipated, ranging from 40-60% along the coast to 60-75% over the interior from Orlando southward.

Seasonably hot and humid weather continues, with Minor to Moderate HeatRisk conditions each day.

Friday - Next Weekend...

An inverted trough and accompanying moisture surge may approach from the Atlantic late this week. Combined with onshore flow, enhanced coverage (60-70%) of showers and storms is forecast, especially over the interior. Whether this moisture surge comes over the state or is deflected just to our northeast is still in question - and this will help determine just how unsettled it gets late in the week.

MARINE

Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A cold front settles into the Southern Appalachians today, allowing southwesterly winds to freshen over the local Atlantic. Scattered to numerous offshore-moving showers and storms are forecast again today and on Monday. Then, high pressure begins to lift northward, reaching Central Florida on Wednesday before pushing even farther northward late in the work week. More typical sea breeze conditions will return with this pattern change.

Today, south-southwest winds increase to 10-15 kt nearshore, and 15-20 kt in the Gulf Stream off of Volusia Co where caution will be required. Winds turn more out of the south on Monday, 10-15 kt. By late Tuesday and into Wednesday, southeasterly flow is favored, generally 10 kt or less with some enhancement behind the sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft in most locations through the next few days, perhaps locally 4 feet late today and tonight well offshore of Ponce Inlet.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Showers pushing onshore the Gulf coast north of TPA have the best chance to reach LEE aft 06Z so have inserted VCSH there overnight and will monitor for SHRA reaching SFB/MCO/DAB toward sunrise. Considerable mid level CIGs forecast for Sun but support aloft will initiate early convection and high coverage of SHRA/TSRA spreading east-northeast across the terminals. A little stronger SW wind flow at 7-12 knots, gusting up to 20 knots possible. The Atlc sea breeze is forecast to develop along the coast but remain pinned. With a little better heating possible south of MCO, best chance for a couple stronger pulse storms will be MLB-SUA mid to late afternoon containing wind gusts 35-45 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 74 90 75 / 80 30 60 10 MCO 89 75 91 75 / 80 30 70 10 MLB 89 75 91 76 / 80 20 70 20 VRB 90 73 91 74 / 80 20 70 20 LEE 88 75 90 75 / 80 40 60 20 SFB 89 75 91 76 / 80 30 60 20 ORL 89 75 91 76 / 80 30 70 10 FPR 90 73 91 74 / 80 30 70 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.