textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Patchy dense fog and low stratus continues to spread south and westward across the northern portions of the CWA this morning. Visibilities down 1 mile or less in dense fog. Patchy fog and sea fog are forecast late tonight into Thursday morning along the northern Volusia coast and adjacent Atlantic waters.

- Breezy onshore flow will produce rough surf and choppy seas. There is a High risk of rip currents at all area beaches and will likely continue through this week.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop over the Atlantic and push inland most afternoons through early next week. There is a low (20% or less) chance of lightning storms Thursday onward.

- Warming trend continues with well above normal Temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach 85F-87F over the interior mid to late week, with near record highs forecast this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Today-Tonight... Patchy dense fog and low stratus have formed and is sliding southward from Flagler/Putnam counties and spreading across Volusia, Lake, Seminole, and northwest Orange counties this morning. Visibilities less than 1 mile at times in dense fog. Fog is forecast to lift or dissipate by 9 AM.

Much like the last couple days, high pressure aloft will remain across Florida and the Gulf waters through the day. Surface high pressure centered in the Atlantic will continue to build across the Deep south and the Florida peninsula while the center slowly shifts southward. Locally, north to northeast winds will persist through the day, with speeds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible at times, especially as the sea breeze forms and pushes inland in the afternoon and enhances the onshore flow. Low level moisture will continue to increase through the day, with forecast PW values of 1.1- 1.3". This will support isolated showers moving onshore with the east to southeast flow through the day, with some of them pushing inland. While most of the activity will be across southwest Florida, additional isolated showers are forecast in the far western interior of the CWA as the sea breeze pushes inland this afternoon. Lightning storms are not forecast at this time (probability less than 15%). Most areas will be dry tonight, isolated showers will be possible through the overnight hours, mainly along the coast of Martin county.

Warm and partly sunny again today with highs forecast to be about 3- 8 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs range from upper 70s to low 80s along the coast, and low to mid 80s across the interior. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s under partly cloudy skies. Models are beginning to indicate fog/sea fog forming once again along Flagler county and spreading southward onto the northern Volusia coast and adjacent Atlantic waters late tonight into early Thursday morning. Thus, have added patchy fog to the forecast for that area into Thursday morning. Fog may be dense at times, with visibilities less than 1 mile in dense fog.

Due to the winds remaining elevated over the Atlantic waters as well as increasing seas and periods, there is a High risk of rip currents once again at all area beaches today. Entering the surf is not advised.

Thursday-Tuesday...Upper level high pressure across the Florida peninsula and SW Atlantic on Thursday will continue to shift eastward into the SW Atlantic by the weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will slowly shift southward towards Bermuda by the weekend, with the axis remaining over the eastern US and the Florida peninsula through the period. Locally, this will result in onshore (east to southeast) flow persisting through the weekend and into early next week. Much like the last several days, the east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon. Warm moist air will remain in place through the extended, with forecast PW values ranging from 1.1-1.4" through the period. This coupled with persistent onshore flow will support a low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers each day that will push onshore and inland. Due to the persist easterly flow, the western side of the peninsula will continue to have the highest rain chances. However, the greatest potential for showers in ECFL will occur across the interior and especially the western interior, each afternoon. There is a low (20%) chance for lightning storm development each afternoon, though confidence remains low. Main storm hazards will be occasional lightning strikes and gusty winds. Any lingering showers or storms will diminish into the overnight hours, with additional development possible across the waters each night.

The warming trend continues with temperatures forecast to be 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Near record highs are forecast this weekend with Leesburg having the greatest opportunity to reach a record daily high temperature. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s each day. The warmest temperatures will occur across the interior each day as onshore flow and the east coast sea breeze help keep the coast slightly cooler. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s through the extended period, which is slightly above normal. Due to the persistent onshore flow causing the swell to build and become rough, there will be a High risk of dangerous, life- threatening rip currents at all area beaches through the weekend. Entering the surf is not advised.

MARINE

Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Today- Sunday... Poor marine and boating conditions are forecast through Saturday as the pressure gradient remains slightly tightened over the areas. Easterly winds today will turn east to southeast on Thursday with speeds of 10-15 knots nearshore and 15-20 knots offshore through Saturday. Winds decrease slightly on Sunday, with speeds of 10-15 KT across all the waters. Seas of 5-6 feet in the offshore and 4-5ft in the nearshore waters today through will persist through Saturday before subsiding slightly to 4-5ft across all the waters on Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution in all the offshore waters today through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers with a few lightning storms are forecast each day across the Atlantic waters.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1222 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Satellite and observations show stratus sneaking southward across Volusia/north Lake counties, with lower visibilities as well. Will watch the I-4 TAF sites closely for lowering CIGs/VSBYs thru early this morning. Else, some light shower activity may sneak onto the coast occasionally in the deep onshore flow. Have VCSH to cover for this and will add TEMPO groups here as necessary. Possible brief MVFR in showers. ENE/E winds 8-13 kts with some higher gusts thru today, esp across coastal TAF sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 79 62 80 64 / 10 10 20 10 MCO 83 65 85 67 / 10 0 40 10 MLB 79 66 80 67 / 20 10 30 20 VRB 80 66 81 68 / 20 10 30 20 LEE 84 64 86 66 / 10 0 40 10 SFB 83 64 85 66 / 10 0 30 10 ORL 83 65 85 67 / 10 0 40 10 FPR 80 66 81 66 / 20 10 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.