textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- A high risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches. Entering the surf is not advised!

- Poor boating conditions persist across the local Atlantic waters through most of this week, with a return of hazardous conditions forecast into Thursday across the offshore waters.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast each afternoon across east central Florida and an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially from Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure situated across the Atlantic will remain in place today, remaining the predominant feature near the Florida peninsula. The ridge axis will remain just north of the state, resulting in persistent easterly winds. Wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph are anticipated, with gusts up to 25 mph possible, especially along the coast while the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Isolated shower activity is forecast within the moist, onshore flow regime present across the peninsula, and the east coast sea breeze moving inland may prompt further development across the interior this afternoon. While any activity that does develop across the peninsula is forecast to diminish into the early evening and overnight hours, ongoing isolated shower development will remain possible across the local Atlantic waters through the overnight period. At this time, the environment looks to remain unfavorable for storm development, so have left out any mention of it within the forecast today.

The moisture present across the area will keep skies partly cloudy, with the greatest amount of cloud coverage anticipated to occur during the afternoon hours. Less cloud coverage will allow for greater heating across east central Florida today, with afternoon highs forecast to reach the low 80s along the coast and the low to mid 80s across the interior. Tonight, temperatures fall into the 60s.

While the weather will remain objectively nice today and conditions would look favorable for a beach day, the persistent onshore flow and lingering swells will produce a high risk of rip currents today at all east central Florida beaches. Residents and visitors are strongly discouraged from entering the ocean.

Wednesday-Monday...A similar pattern to today is anticipated to continue over the next several days across east central Florida. Surface high pressure will remain in place across the Atlantic through most of this week, with the ridge axis staying north of the Florida peninsula. Locally, onshore flow will persist, leading to continued moisture advection across east central Florida through late week. The onshore flow and moisture will support shower development, with further aid provided by the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. The sea breeze will help push activity farther inland through the afternoon and early evening hours, with activity waning into the overnight hours across the peninsula. Isolated activity will continue to be possible each night across the local Atlantic waters, and a stray shower or two may be able to make it onshore. Rain chances of 20-30% are forecast most afternoons, with a 40-50% chance on Thursday afternoon. Storm development looks to remain generally unfavorable into Wednesday, but greater instability starting on Thursday will lead to a low chance (20%) of storm development each afternoon. Confidence in this does remain low at this time. Early next week, a cold front looks to approach the Florida peninsula, with increasing rain and storm chances likely along with it. However, there remains some discrepancy relative to just how much moisture will be present out ahead of the front, resulting in varying rain chances. Adjustments through the next several days are likely as guidance comes into better agreement. Looking at temperatures, highs and lows are forecast to remain above normal through the remainder of this week and into the weekend, with afternoon highs anticipated to gradually warm through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Poor boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters as onshore flow helps maintain 4 to 6 foot seas through Wednesday. Easterly flow freshens to 15 to 20 knots on Thursday, causing seas to build once again to 5 to 8 feet. The highest seas are forecast across the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed once again late this week. Boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous through this weekend and into early next week.

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local Atlantic waters each day due to the onshore flow and plentiful moisture across the area. Ongoing isolated shower development into the overnight hours will be possible, particularly across the Gulf Stream. There is also a low chance (20-30%) for storm development from Thursday onward.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 640 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Continued mainly VFR, with brief MVFR invof onshore-moving light showers. Continue to handle this with "Vicinity" wording for Space/Treasure Coast TAF sites this morning. Will consider TEMPO groups as appropriate. ERLY flow persists increasing to 8-12 kts across the interior and 10-15 kts at the coast with higher gusts (20- 22 kts) here. Will monitor for patchy ground fog at DAB near sunrise.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 63 80 64 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 83 65 82 66 / 20 10 20 10 MLB 80 66 80 68 / 20 10 10 20 VRB 80 65 81 67 / 20 20 20 30 LEE 85 63 84 64 / 20 10 10 0 SFB 84 63 84 65 / 20 10 10 10 ORL 84 65 84 66 / 20 10 10 10 FPR 80 64 81 65 / 20 20 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ572-575.