textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Afternoon and early evening storms will focus on the eastern side of the Florida peninsula today, where sea breeze convergence will generate lightning storms capable of very heavy rain and gusty winds up to 55 mph.

- Near-normal rain and storm chances continue through early this week, with the arrival of more Saharan dust mid- week limiting rain and storm chances.

- Hot, humid July temperatures will lead to afternoon heat indices between 102-107F each day. Be sure to practice heat safety!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A slightly earlier than normal start to convection this afternoon, with scattered showers and storms ongoing along and north of I-4 by 2 PM. Outflow from this activity is evident on KMLB radar, moving southward and sparking additional development. Expect this to continue through the afternoon, with some enhancement likely along the sea breeze as the boundaries zipper southward. Gusty winds have already been observed, with a 41 mph wind gust at KDED. This is not surprising, with SPC mesoanalysis suggesting DCAPE values approaching 800-1000 J/kg at times over the next few hours. Thus, the main threats today will be gusty winds to near 55-60 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. But, can't rule out some small hail, with the 15Z XMR sounding finding 500 mb temperatures near -8C.

CAMs are slowly playing catchup with the earlier start to convection. However, they are in fairly good agreement that showers and storms will continue to move southward into this evening, clearing the Treasure Coast near 8-10 PM. Then, drier conditions prevail for the overnight hours. Will need to monitor the potential for some showers and storms near Lake County near sunrise, as suggested by a few CAMs. Though this appears to be from convection near the panhandle, so it will likely depend on if/how that evolves. Light offshore flow overnight, with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Thursday...A surface ridge plants itself over the Florida peninsula through mid-week, fending off a front over the Southeast US. This will maintain prevailing offshore flow through the period, though daily sea breezes are forecast along the coast. Scattered showers and storms (PoPs 40-60%) are expected once again Monday afternoon, especially along the pinned sea breeze. Storm threats will be similar to today, with enough drier air in the mid-levels to support a few strong to marginally severe wind gusts.

As we move into mid-week and high pressure strengthens over the area, a surge of drier air aloft associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) moves over the state. Increased subsidence and dry air aloft will work to limit shower and storm activity Tuesday through Thursday. While isolated to widely scattered convection is possible (15-30%, highest along the sea breeze) most areas will likely remain dry. High temperatures warm increasingly into the mid-90s through this week. Despite drier air aloft, PWATs near 1.6-1.8" will maintain heat indices 102-107F. Will need to continue to monitor the need for Heat Advisories. Regardless, residents and visitors are urged to practice heat safety. NEVER leave children or pets unattended in a car for ANY period of time.

Friday-Next Weekend...High pressure weakens late week and into the weekend, while effects from the SAL diminish. Thus, nearer to normal coverage (30-40%) of showers and storms returns. Prevailing offshore flow is forecast to persist, maintaining high temperatures in the mid-90s. This may be the best chance to see another Heat Advisory overall, as hot temperatures continue and moisture slightly increases. Will need to continue to monitor through the week.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions this week, as high pressure remains over the area. Light offshore flow overnight increases to up to 10 kts in the afternoons and becomes southerly near the coast as the sea breeze develops. Seas 1-2 ft build to up to 3 ft in the Gulf Stream at times. Offshore moving showers and storms will be a threat through early this week. Then, drier air limits convection overall mid to late week. Main hazards with any storms will be wind gusts to near 45 kts, lightning strikes, small hail, and heavy rainfall.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Showers and storms are beginning to wind down this evening, with some lingering shower and storms around VRB/FPR. Any lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the area by 02Z. SSW winds 5-10 KT this evening will become light overnight, variable at times, before increasing to 5-10 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze will form and push inland by late morning/early afternoon, veering winds E/SE and increase to around 10 KT behind the sea breeze. There is some uncertainty with storms for Monday. But for now have VCTS starting at 16/18Z for interior terminals, 17/19Z from DAB- MLB, and 20/21Z for VRB- SUA. TEMPOs will likely be added in later TAF packages, but confidence was not high enough to include at this time. Much like this evening, convection on Monday looks to dissipate or move out of the area by 01/02Z, with winds becoming light and variable Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 92 75 92 / 20 60 20 30 MCO 76 95 76 96 / 20 40 10 20 MLB 77 93 77 93 / 30 50 20 20 VRB 76 95 75 94 / 30 50 30 20 LEE 77 92 77 93 / 20 50 10 30 SFB 77 94 76 95 / 20 50 10 20 ORL 77 94 77 95 / 20 50 10 20 FPR 76 95 75 94 / 30 50 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.