textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 125 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

-Mostly dry conditions continue through Saturday, with rain chances returning Sunday and Monday.

-Seasonable to below normal temperatures forecast through early next week, with the coldest overnight temperatures occurring Thursday night with lows dropping into the 40s across most areas. -Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through Thursday. A High Risk of rip currents also exists at all area beaches today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Rest of Today- Tonight... High pressure across the Deep south today, extending across the Florida peninsula, will begin to weaken as a cold front moves into the Deep South. Locally, mostly dry conditions are forecast this afternoon and into the overnight hours, with isolated light showers remaining across the Atlantic waters through tonight. Northwest to west winds at 5-10 mph is dominating most of the CWA. However, the east coast sea breeze has developed this afternoon along the coast, where it will remain pinned, turning the winds easterly. Satellite imagery supports this localized sea breeze formation, by showing a cu field developing just inland across the Treasure Coast with clear skies along the immediate coast. Winds will then become light overnight, turning northwest to west once again. Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures today with afternoon highs ranging from low to mid 70s across the north, and mid to upper 70s across the south. Cool overnight temperatures, with lows in the mid to upper 40s to low 50s.

Thursday-Saturday... Upper level high pressure across the Great Lakes area on Thursday will gradually shift eastward and deepen, reaching Maine and New Brunswick on Friday and Saturday. At the surface, a low pressure system near Maine on Thursday will lift north and eastward into late week. This will drag an attached dry cold front that is across the eastern US across east central Florida on Thursday. Surface high pressure will then build across the Florida peninsula behind the front on Friday and into early weekend. Locally, dry conditions will prevail through the period, with no mentionable rain chances through the period. Drier air will filter across the area behind the front, with forecast PW values going from around 0.8" to around 0.5" behind the front and continuing through Saturday. North to northwest winds around 5-10 mph on Thursday will become light and variable on Friday before becoming northeast to east on Saturday and increasing to 5-10 mph once again.

The frontal passage will bring cooler air across the area before a gradual warming trend takes place, with temps remaining seasonable to below normal for this time of year through the period. Afternoon highs will range from mid to upper 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Thursday, before gradual warming starts with highs in the low to mid 70s across the area on Friday, and mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 40s west of I-95, and mid to upper 40s to low 50s across the coast on Thursday night before warming generally to upper 40s to low 50s on Friday night, and generally 50s to low 60s on Saturday night.

Sunday-Tuesday... Another upper level low develops over the Great Lakes region on Sunday before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front associated with the upper level low, will push across east central Florida late Sunday into early Monday. High pressure will then build across the Florida peninsula behind the front. Locally, low level moisture will increase slightly into early next week, with forecast PW values rising to 0.8-1.1" before drier air begins to filter across the area Tuesday, dropping PW values to 0.5-0.7". Rain chances return to the forecast on Sunday ahead of the front as moisture increases across the area as well as on Monday as the increased moisture lingers. There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of showers across the Treasure Coast on Sunday, expanding upwards toward southern Brevard on Monday. Conditions become dry on Tuesday, with no mentionable rain chances across land areas. However, isolated showers will remain possible across the Gulf Stream waters on Tuesday. Northeast winds 5- 10 mph on Sunday will increase to 8-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph (especially along the coast) on Monday before winds veer easterly and decrease to 5-10 mph once again on Tuesday. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday will cool to mid to upper 60s to low 70s across the north to low to mid 70s across the south on Monday before slightly warming on Tuesday to low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 125 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Today-Sunday... Poor to hazardous conditions through Thursday with favorable boating conditions returning across the local waters late week into the weekend. Small craft should exercise caution across the offshore waters today for seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. Hazardous conditions build across the Gulf Stream tonight with seas increasing up to 8 ft in the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all offshore zones beginning 1 AM Thursday. Northwest to west winds around 10 KT this afternoon will increase to 15-20 KT, except across the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters where winds increase to 20-25 KT, tonight as a cold front approaches the local waters. Winds then shift north-northwest Thursday before diminishing to 10-15 KT Thursday night behind the front, becoming light and variable Friday as high pressure rebuilds across the waters. Winds then shift north to northeast on Saturday with speeds around 10 KT, becoming more northerly and increasing to 10-15 KT on Sunday. Seas up to 6ft today will increase to 8 ft in the offshore waters tonight before decreasing back down to 6ft on Thursday night, then 2-4ft on Friday, and 2-3ft Saturday and Sunday. Outside of isolated showers across the waters today and isolated to scattered showers on Sunday, mostly dry conditions are forecast through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1225 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Lingering stratus near LEE is anticipated to improve through the remainder of the afternoon, with a TEMPO in through 19Z for FL005 ceilings. Additionally have TEMPOs in through 19Z for some lingering bouncy MVFR CIGs at ISM, TIX, and FPR. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at the terminals. A weak sea breeze is causing ENE winds along the coast this afternoon, with WNW winds across the interior. Anticipate prevailing NW winds after 12Z tonight, with wind speeds picking up to around 10 knots. Dry through the period at all sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 50 65 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 53 66 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 52 69 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 50 71 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 50 65 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 50 66 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 52 66 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 50 71 47 74 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ570- 572-575.