textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Critically low RH values will continue very sensitive fire weather conditions through midweek.

- Well below normal temperatures continue through tonight. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory continue for much of the region through 9 AM this morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued for much of the area tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue, mainly across the Gulf Stream waters today.

- A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Today-Tonight...Cold start this morning, with morning lows forecast in the 30s for much of the area and wind chills in the 20s. A Freeze Warning continues through 9 AM for much of the region, except the immediate coast from Brevard County southward and all of Martin County. A Cold Weather Advisory for the lower wind chill values also continues through 9 AM for all of east central FL. Residents and visitors are advised to dress appropriately for the colder weather, practice space heater safety, bring pets indoors, and protect sensitive plants.

High pressure builds in from the west through today into tonight, which will allow north-northwest winds to decrease to around 5-10 mph. Max temps will be be a little higher than yesterday in the low to mid 60s, but these values will still be around 15 degrees below normal. Despite relatively lighter winds and below normal temperatures, the dry airmass in place will produce very low RH values again from late morning through early evening. This combined with the ongoing drought which will keep the fire danger elevated across the area today.

Another colder night is in store tonight as light winds, mostly clear skies and dry airmass lead to favorable radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures will fall quickly after sunset, with lows falling again into the 30s. May see a few normally colder spots reach the freezing mark NW of I-4 and rural inland spots of Osceola/Okeechobee counties. However, min temps mostly forecast to remain above freezing, but still cold enough with light winds to lead to areas to widespread frost development across much of the mainland. Frost will be more patchy or non existent across Orlando metro area and also along the barrier islands. A Frost Advisory has been issued for almost the entire east central FL area, except barrier island zones of Brevard County and across Martin County. Residents will once again want to continue to protect any sensitive vegetation.

Wednesday-Thursday...Dry conditions continue through midweek, with a warming trend taking hold as high pressure builds eastward and winds switch to the south-southwest. Highs will be closer to normal on Wednesday as they rise into the 70s, with max temps then above normal on Thursday, reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. It will still be somewhat chilly into Wednesday night, with lows in the 40s, but min temps will then be slightly above normal in the mid 50s to low 60s on Thursday night.

Friday-Monday...A cold front across the southeast U.S. will move toward Florida Friday. Models have this boundary sliding into central FL either Friday night or Saturday before gradually pushing southward into late weekend. This will lead to increasing rain chances and a low end potential for thunderstorms, especially from Friday afternoon through Friday night and into Saturday as boundary nears and slows down. PoPs increase from 40-50 percent Friday, to 60- 70 percent Friday night into Saturday. GFS and ECMWF show varying rainfall amounts from this system, but are showing at least the potential for some beneficial rainfall from this system from late week into Saturday. As the boundary shifts south, low end rain chances around 20-30 percent will linger as onshore flow develops with strong area of high pressure well north of the area. This will favor isolated to scattered onshore moving showers into early next week. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to above normal through the period, with warmest max temps in the low to mid 80s on Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist, mainly across the Gulf Stream waters today into tonight. High pressure will gradually build in from the west and across Florida later today into tonight. This will allow NW winds to diminish through the day, from around 15-20 knots early this morning to 10-15 knots this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the entire waters through 7 AM this morning, and will then linger into the afternoon across the Gulf Stream waters for seas up to 7-8 feet. Small craft will still need to exercise caution over the Gulf Stream from late afternoon into the early evening as seas continue to slowly subside, with seas then falling to 3-5 feet overnight.

Wednesday-Saturday...High pressure pushes eastward into the Atlantic, with ridge axis remaining across the FL peninsula through at least Thursday. Another front approaches and moves into central FL then into the weekend. Winds will be out of the S/SW up to 10-15 knots, except 15-20 knots offshore into Thursday night, which will lead to a brief period of poor boating conditions. Seas will range from 3-5 feet on Wednesday, decreasing to 2-4 feet Thursday through Saturday.

Dry conditions forecast through Thursday, but as a front approaches and moves into FL late week into the weekend, rain chances will increase. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms will be possible across the coastal waters Friday through Saturday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 629 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminals through the TAF period. NW winds 5-10 kts become light/VRB at inland terminals after 21Z. Along the coast winds shift NNE 5-10 kts after 20Z, then also becoming light/VRB after 23Z. Wind reestablish from the SW 5-10 kts late Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

High pressure building into the area through tonight will push offshore through midweek. This will lead to lower wind speeds across the area, around 5-10 mph both today and Wednesday. Wind direction today will be out of the north-northwest, becoming northeast along the coast late in the afternoon. Winds then become south-southwest on Wednesday. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will continue across the region due to critically low RH and the ongoing drought. Min RH values will fall to 20-35 percent across east central Florida from late morning through early evening hours both today and Wednesday. Dispersion values will be fair to generally good today and very good to excellent on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 58 34 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 38 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 61 36 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 61 35 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 38 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 61 37 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 61 39 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 62 34 74 48 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447- 547-647-747.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547.

Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-347-547-647.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555- 572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570.