textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 633 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

- A Wind ADVISORY is in effect tonight along the coast where wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected behind a cold front. Remaining windy at times into at least early Monday afternoon. Holiday decorations should be properly secured!

- High surf and numerous rip currents rapidly developing from north to south at all Atlantic beaches tonight. Nearshore seas and surf from 7 to 10 feet. Boating conditions quickly worsen, becoming hazardous to dangerous through Monday.

- Wind chills briefly reach the upper 30s over northwestern Lake and Volusia Counties late tonight. Elsewhere, turning cooler... but impactful cold is not expected with this front.

UPDATE

(for Tonight) Issued at 733 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

As expected, a strong (but quickly-modifying) Arctic cold front is just now entering Volusia County. Hi-res guidance sweeps the front southward, exiting Martin County by around midnight. Immediately behind it, winds increase with gusts to 20-30 mph common over NE FL. A few gusts to 35 mph have been observed. This trend should continue as it moves over our area.

At 2,500 FT, HREF members suggest that winds will be in the 30-40 MPH range for a few hours behind the front. Thus, the current forecast of Wind Advisory conditions along our coast is in good shape. Loose objects like holiday decorations and trash cans should be secured.

Beach conditions quickly become dangerous tonight with surf building to to 7-10 FT north of Cape Canaveral, and 4-8 FT to the south. Numerous rip currents are also expected. Please remain out of the surf through Monday.

The parent shortwave responsible for this front is moving eastward over the Mid-Atlantic states. With the H5 jet axis more than 500 miles north of Central FL, the trailing 1040 hPa surface high is slated to also pass well to our north. This will cause winds to rapidly veer northeasterly over the next 12-18 hours. Therefore, parcels will spend some time over the Atlantic before reaching us, effectively cutting off the core of the Arctic air mass immediately north of Central Florida. Folks northwest of Orlando (portions of Lake and interior Volusia Cos) will experience wind chills from 37-45 deg F on Monday morning. Otherwise, most of us will wake up to 50s (even 60s on the Treasure Coast). No question, however: it'll feel chilly tomorrow due to the breezy conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Rest of Today-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region today before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front today, increasing the moisture across the southern portions of the CWA. Forecast PW values will range from 1.0-1.1" across the north to 1.2-1.5" across the south. This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low to medium (20- 60 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward today, with the greatest potential for rain occurring across the Treasure Coast and around Lake Okeechobee into early afternoon. There remains a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county today. Rain chances push offshore late afternoon and overnight, remaining mostly dry over land areas on Monday.

The next cold front will push across east central Florida this evening into tonight. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances through Monday. However, winds will increase across the local area tonight into Monday as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast). North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph today will increase to 15-25 mph across the interior and 20- 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible along the coast tonight into Monday with winds shifting north to northeast on Monday. A Wind Advisory has been issued along the coast starting at 7pm tonight. The high pressure will steadily weaken on Monday, which will allow the pressure gradient to loosen somewhat over the local area. This will result in the north to northeast winds decreasing, however, they will remain breezy/gusty especially along the coast.

These strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion tonight into Monday. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT are forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. Thus, a High Surf Advisory has also been issued. The high tide of most concern will be early Monday between 4am-5am. A High risk of rip currents goes into effect later this afternoon from Cape Canaveral northward, spreading to all the coast Monday.

Temperatures will be above normal today before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s today before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south tonight, and range from low to mid 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night.

Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday, with isolated showers forecast along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast.

Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night.

Friday-Saturday...An upper level trough will push into the eastern US on Friday and out into the Atlantic on Saturday. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday, first dropping into north Florida before reaching the far northern part of the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning, then pushing through the rest of the CWA throughout the day on Saturday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Friday will veer northeast to east on Saturday behind the front. The frontal passage Friday night through Saturday looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas. Isolated showers will be possible ahead of the front on Friday, with a low (20 percent) chance of showers occurring along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will not change much behind the front, with afternoon highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s on both Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s on and Friday night, and range from upper 50s to low 60s across the north to low to mid 60s across the south.

MARINE

Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Today-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Conditions will begin to deteriorate this afternoon and especially this evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds over the area behind a cold front, tightening the pressure gradient over the local area. North winds increase 20-25 knots by sunset across the northern (Volusia) waters will overspread the remainder of our coastal waters this evening with rapidly building seas especially in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Warning has been posted for the Volusia Atlantic waters for frequent gusts to gale force (34 knots) while solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist elsewhere with occasional gusts to gale force possible. Seas will build rapidly to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight into Monday with 7-10 FT nearshore.

The high pressure will weaken as it settles into the SE US Monday so wind speeds will drop below 20 knots Mon aftn but seas will be slower to subside given the NE wind component. The high will push seaward through mid week and winds will veer east then southeast in response and the pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots. It will take a little while for seas to subside below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream so have extended the SCA there slightly. But once we lose the north wind component, seas will subside below 6 FT Tuesday night and below 5 FT Wednesday. Seas nearshore will be 3 FT Wednesday- Thursday as winds develop a SE component.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 633 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Only minor adjustments to ongoing TAFs. First was the timing of the cold front / wind surge, which is coming in slightly later this evening from north to south. Second, and of lesser confidence, is CIGs late tonight and into Monday as marine stratocumulus develops and moves ashore. Model soundings suggest bases should be AOA FL030, so flirting with MVFR at a few sites in the morning before lifting into VFR as the boundary layer deepens by afternoon.

Peak north to north-northeast wind gusts 22-28 KT for inland/Orlando area terminals tonight, including at MCO. Coastal terminals have a 10-20% chance of peak wind gusts of 30+ KT, particularly at DAB before midnight and along the Treasure Coast after midnight through sunrise. Winds veer solidly NE with gusts slowly subsiding Monday afternoon/evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 50 62 50 69 / 0 10 10 0 MCO 53 64 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 56 67 55 71 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 59 69 55 73 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 45 62 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 50 63 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 50 63 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 59 69 55 73 / 20 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ141-347-447.

High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ154-159-164-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572.