textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Isolated onshore moving showers and sprinkles will continue to be possible today into tonight.

- Rain chances increase Thursday afternoon/evening well ahead of the next front, with isolated storms also possible.

- A gradual warm-up will continue through mid to late week, with highs becoming above normal, in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic will remain north of Florida, maintaining an easterly low level flow across the region. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast today as cirrus clouds aloft build eastward and low level moisture trapped below an inversion near 850mb, generate marine stratocu clouds that will continue to stream onshore. Similar to yesterday, isolated onshore moving showers and isolated to scattered sprinkles will be possible. However, any measurable rainfall looks to remain mostly confined to the coast. Have kept 20 percent rain chances along the coast for today into tonight, with a chance of sprinkles mentioned a little farther inland. Despite the cloud cover, the moderating onshore flow will continue a gradual warming of temperatures, with highs near to just a few degrees above normal in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 60s for much of the area, but may see temps drop into the upper 50s across normally cooler locations across the interior.

Thursday-Friday...Isolated onshore moving showers will continue to be possible into Thursday morning. Rain chances then increase into the afternoon/evening up to 30-50%, as southerly flow increases PW values up to 1.4-1.7" across the area well ahead of a cold front moving into the Southeast United States. Scattered showers will develop across the area and while instability remains rather limited (CAPE at or below 500 J/kg), an approaching mid level trough may help generate isolated lightning storms, mainly into the evening. There is a modest increase in shear as S/SW winds increase to 30-40 knots between 925-500mb, and this may allow any storms that can develop to become strong, with the main threat being lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and brief heavy downpours. Rain chances then diminish into Friday morning as front approaches and eventually moves across central Florida during the afternoon/evening hours.

Temperatures will continue to rise into late week, with highs above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s both Thursday and Friday. Lows Thursday night will be mild, in the mid 60s for much of the region, and then the passing cold front will lead to much cooler conditions into Friday night, with lows in the 50s, except mid/upper 40s NW of I-4.

Saturday-Tuesday...High pressure builds in quickly behind the front, pushing toward the Mid-Atlantic coast and offshore into Saturday. This area of high pressure is then reinforced into early next week as a weak front approaches Florida. Winds quickly veer onshore and remain out of the east-northeast for much of the period. It looks to remain mostly dry through the weekend into early next week, but may see the return of isolated onshore moving showers as airmass gradually moistens and onshore flow increases, especially into early next week. Temperatures look to generally remain near to above normal, with highs mostly in the 70s, except low 80s forecast for portions of the area Sunday. Lows will be in the 50s to low 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Today-Tonight...Easterly winds around 10-15 knots today will become southeasterly into tonight, as ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the region. Seas will continue to subside slightly with seas 3-5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and sprinkles will continue to be possible across the coastal waters moving west-northwest and onshore along the coast.

Thursday-Friday...Winds become S/SE into Thursday and S/SW Thursday night as a cold front moves through the Southeast United States. Wind speeds increase from 10-15 knots Thursday up to 15-20 knots offshore into Thursday night, leading to poor boating conditions. Winds continue to veer to the W/SW Friday morning as front nears the area, and then switch to the N/NW behind the front Friday afternoon into Friday night as front moves through the waters. Winds are forecast to remain around 15-20 knots offshore as front approaches and then will be closer to 10-15 knots as this boundary moves through, with seas building to 6 feet well offshore of Volusia and Brevard counties.

Rain chances increase Thursday into Thursday night, with scattered showers and isolated storms possible across the waters, especially into the afternoon and Thursday night. Rain chances then gradually diminish into Friday as front crosses the waters.

Saturday-Sunday...More favorable boating conditions and mostly dry conditions are forecast into the weekend. Winds quickly veer onshore, with speeds forecast to remain around 5-10 knots. Seas subside to 3-5 feet Saturday to 2-4 feet Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1237 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Continuing to monitor potential for fog/stratus impacts at KMCO and other inland ECFL terminals. Latest HREF continues 10-30% chances for IFR reductions, but NBM chances have dropped considerably to less than 10% at KMCO and around 20% at KLEE. Given low confidence/chances, only have MVFR reductions in the KLEE TAF and all other inland TAFs continue VFR, but short-fused AMDs may be needed if fog/stratus manages to develop, which could also linger into the late morning. ISO onshore moving showers bringing brief IFR VIS and MVFR CIGs will remain possible through the TAF period. Confidence where/when these will develop is very low, and will need to play VCSH/TEMPOs by ear. Highest chances (such as they are around 20%) along the coast, but there are very low (around 10%) chances to reach the inland terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions. Winds N-NE 5 kts or less inland and E-SE 5-10 kts along most of the coast tonight settle to ENE- ESE 5-10 kts, up to around 10 kts along the coast in the afternoon, then become light again late this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 62 78 63 / 20 20 40 50 MCO 76 61 81 66 / 10 10 40 40 MLB 76 64 80 66 / 20 20 40 50 VRB 76 64 81 66 / 20 20 40 50 LEE 75 59 80 64 / 10 10 40 50 SFB 76 60 80 65 / 10 10 40 40 ORL 75 61 80 66 / 10 10 40 40 FPR 77 64 81 66 / 20 20 30 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.