textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- Cooler today behind a cold front but lingering showers this morning with scattered showers and a few storms along the Treasure Coast.

- Another round of hot temperatures expected by the middle of the week. Widespread low to mid 90s are forecast on Wednesday over the interior, expanding to all areas by Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Today...Cold front continues to push southward across central FL early this morning but isolated showers will linger even north of the front until drier air begins to filter in later this morning. A higher coverage of showers and even a storm or two will push east across southern sections early this morning interacting with the southward-moving cold front. A north wind shift will accompany frontal passage, reaching Martin county a little after sunrise. Additional scattered showers and elevated convection is forecast to redevelop this afternoon across portions of the Treasure coast but strong/severe storms are not forecast. Decreasing clouds across northern sections but remaining mostly cloudy to overcast across the south. Noticeably cooler today with highs in the upper 70s coast (mid 70s Volusia coast) and near 80/lower 80s over the north interior where there will be better sfc heating.

Mon-Sat...Zonal flow aloft will continue the first half of the week with a ridge nosing in from the SW Gulf mid week. This ridge will get flattened by a long wave trough rotating across the eastern CONUS late week. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlc Mon will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis gradually settling south and reaching central FL Wed. A cold front will push into the deep South Thu and suppress the ridge axis south of the area, setting up a south to southwest wind flow across the area. Model guidance is backing off on a clean frontal passage late week and instead showing a weakening front stalling over north/central FL late week. It is early May after all. Moisture along the front looks rather meager so rain chances are currently low but should be sufficient for isolated to scattered showers/storms Fri/Sat.

There will be a steady warm-up early this week with afternoon highs reaching the the low to mid 90s by Wed across the interior, expanding to all of the area Thu as offshore flow dominates.

MARINE

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Today...Cold front currently pushing south across the area will push south of the local Atlc waters later this morning. A surge of north winds near 20 knots and gusty immediately behind the front will briefly produce Small Craft Advisory conditions but speeds are forecast to settle 15-20 knots and veer NE during the day so will handle with a Caution headline for most marine zones. Seas will build 4-5 FT nearshore and 6 FT in the Gulf Stream so a poor boating day for sure. Scattered showers and storms mainly south of Sebastian Inlet.

High pressure centered off the NC coast Monday will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis north of the area. This ridge axis will settle southward reaching central FL and adjacent waters Wed then south of the area Thu. Onshore (ENE) flow Mon near 15 knots will veer East Tue and SE Wed with speeds near 10 knots except 10-14 knots near the coast enhanced by the aftn sea breeze. Winds become S/SW early Thu with a SE wind shift near 15 knots in the aftn assocd with the sea breeze.

Seas remain 5-6 FT in the Gulf Stream Mon and 4-5 FT nearshore. As winds veer more east and speeds decrease slightly (and we lose the north wind component), seas will subside more quickly, 3-4 ft area wide Tue and 2-3 FT Wed and Thu. Isolated to scattered showers south of the Cape Mon and Tue.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

MVFR to VFR CIGs persist across the terminals this afternoon along with NE winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible at times, especially along the coast. VCSH continues from MLB southward this afternoon into the overnight hours, with decreased confidence in storm activity leading to the removal of TEMPOs with this package. Will monitor over the next several hours and amend as needed. ENE winds overnight decrease to 5 to 10 knots, picking up once again after 12Z along the coast and 14Z across the interior at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible once again tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

A cold front will push south of central FL early this morning and produce a wind shift out of the north, turning northeast during the day. This change in wind direction will bring a cooler airmass with breezy/gusty conditions especially along the coast, up to 25 mph. Drier air will filter into central Florida but scattered to numerous showers and a few storms will linger across Okeechobee/Treasure coast today into this evening. On Monday, drier air penetrates farther south limiting rain chances in the form of isolated coastal showers along the Treasure coast. Min RH values will remain above critical levels for the most part, dropping near 35% across Lake county both afternoons. Dispersion values will be Very Good both days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 63 79 64 83 / 10 0 0 10 MCO 65 81 65 87 / 10 10 10 20 MLB 68 79 68 82 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 68 79 67 82 / 40 30 20 20 LEE 62 83 63 87 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 63 82 63 87 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 65 82 65 87 / 10 10 10 20 FPR 68 79 67 82 / 40 30 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.