textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening as a front moves slowly through the area.

- Storms may be severe, mainly between 2PM and 11PM, capable of frequent lightning, damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rain leading to minor flooding. There is also a low risk for tornadoes.

- Temperatures closer to normal Wednesday before increasing late week into the weekend. A moderate rip current risk continues at area beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 1024 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

No significant changes were made as forecast looks generally on track for today. Front has currently pushed south of Daytona Beach, which has led to a little more breezy/gusty conditions along the Volusia County coast. Some breaks are observed in the cloud cover this morning, mainly near to south of Orlando and will help with daytime heating to continue to destabilize the airmass across the region. Should see MLCAPE values reach around 1000-1500 J/kg or higher into the afternoon. PW values in the morning sounding at the Cape are around 1.7-1.8" and model guidance has these values increasing closer to 1.8-2.0" through late day. This will lead a moist and unstable airmass and combine with the southward moving front and inland moving sea breeze boundaries for the development of numerous showers and storms through this afternoon and evening (rain chances around 80%).

Trends in hi-res guidance continue to favor initial convection firing up along frontal boundary into the late morning/early afternoon near to north of Orlando. Additional showers and storms will then occur with the inland moving sea breeze boundaries and collisions over the interior through mid to late afternoon, with a westerly steering flow of around 20 knots at 700mb steering any convection back to the coast and offshore through late day and into the evening. Primary storm threats will continue to include strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph and colder temps aloft (around -8 to -9C at 500mb) may lead to large hail of an inch in diameter or slightly higher in more organized convection. Increasing 0-3km shear (100-200 m2/s2) and multiple boundary interactions may also lead to the development of a brief tornado or two. Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall will also occur with any storms.

Continue to monitor the latest forecast at weather.gov/melbourne and have multiple ways to receive warnings if they are issued later today!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Today-Tonight...It is warm and muggy out there with temperatures early this morning in the mid/upper 70s. 03z surface analysis places a cold front along the AL/FL/GA border, one of several features we will be monitoring in connection with a severe storm risk this afternoon. In the upper levels, a west-east oriented jet streak will be situated over north-central FL, or along and just north of the surface front. H5 shortwave energy looks to trail the surface front, moving over the FL Panhandle this afternoon/evening. With 1.8-2.0" PW values present, a fair amount of mid and high level clouds are forecast. A majority of this cloud cover will remain over the northern half of the area through early afternoon, with locations south of Cape Canaveral (i.e. Melbourne, Treasure Coast) seeing more sunshine than northern areas. Also, the additional surface heating south of the greater cloud coverage (and surface front) supports formation of the east coast sea breeze. Highs will range from the low 80s (north) to the upper 80s (inland).

This afternoon's environment ahead of the southward-moving front will be characterized by: effective bulk shear of 35-40+ kt, steep low-level lapse rates, 2000-3000+ J/kg SBCAPE, 100-200 J/kg 3CAPE, and 100-200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH. While questions remain as to morning cloud cover and how that affects daytime instability ahead of the front, these parameters suggest a supportive environment for numerous showers and lightning storms this afternoon. Damaging winds of 60+ mph and frequent lightning strikes remain the primary concerns, though more rigorous updrafts could support large hail up to 1.25" in diameter. There is a tornado risk present, particularly along and south of the front. Interactions between southward-moving storms, the front itself, and inland-moving sea breeze could locally enhance tornado potential...especially if lower LCLs materialize. There are a number of inhibiting factors, including early-day clouds and any pre-frontal convection arriving from the west coast. The SPC has included all of east-central Florida in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms today.

Locally heavy rainfall will accompany storms as well, resulting in a quick 1.0-2.5" of accumulation. HREF probabilities of 24-hour QPF reaching 5" or greater are generally 20-40% for large sections of our coast. Despite recent drought conditions, high rainfall rates of 3-4"+ per hour could lead to ponding of water on roads and in low- lying or urban areas. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall it outlined for much of ECFL, focused from the Orlando area eastward, including the entire coast.

Models are consistently pointing to 2-11 PM for the greatest threat of severe storms, with activity dissipating north-to-south mid to late evening. Monitor the latest forecast at weather.gov/melbourne and have multiple ways to receive warnings if they are issued later today!

Wednesday-Monday...Today's surface front is forecast to stall near Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast on Wednesday. Slight model differences exist with PW ranging from 1.4-1.6" in the afternoon. The greatest moisture and support for showers and storms will be in vicinity of the front, though a 40-55% chance for rain exists across much of the area. Severe storms are not currently forecast, but a strong storm across the far south cannot be ruled out. Some more sunshine between the clouds should help temperatures rebound into the mid/upper 80s Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure builds over the area late this week and remains through at least early next week. This helps establish onshore flow, especially by the weekend. A warming trend is forecast with temperatures reaching the low 90s inland from Saturday onward. By Monday next week, heat indices begin to approach the mid/upper 90s. Rain chances stay relatively low (15-25%), focused along the coast early in the day and translating inland with the afternoon sea breeze. Thursday and Friday are the driest two days of the forecast, but a spot shower south or along the coast cannot be ruled out. Moisture increases over the weekend, bringing rain chances up a bit. Overall though, expect plenty of sunshine and dry weather Thursday onward.

MARINE

Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Today-Tonight...A weak cold front is forecast to drift south across the waters today, accompanied by high rain and lightning storm chances. Lower shower coverage is expected through the morning with rain and storms becoming numerous after 1-3 PM. Activity will shift south and east with the front, and the risk for severe storms is forecast to linger through at least midnight for portions of the local Atlantic. Strong wind gusts of 40+ knots, large hail, and waterspouts are possible this afternoon and tonight.

Outside of storms, conditions will gradually deteriorate north of the Cape as northeast winds freshen (15-20 kt). Some models indicate gusts of 25-30+ kt moving south behind the front this afternoon, but the current forecast is closer to consensus (20-25 kt). A Small Craft Advisory was issued for tonight/early Wed. (8 PM - 8 AM Wed.) for the offshore Volusia waters, where seas reach 7 ft. If gradient winds increase further and build seas over a larger area, the Small Craft Advisory may need to be expanded.

Wednesday-Saturday...The surface front stalls briefly on Wednesday across the Treasure Coast waters. Showers and isolated storms remain in the forecast, particularly from the Cape southward. Seas up to 5- 6 ft may linger in the Gulf Stream, mainly in the Volusia offshore waters. Drier weather returns Thursday/Friday before moisture increases through the weekend. Light and variable winds in the morning turn onshore each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday. Seas decrease to 2-4 ft Thursday onward. By Friday/Saturday, easterly flow becomes more established (10-15 kt) as high pressure settles over the local waters.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Weakening front is sagging into ECFL, producing TSRA and near MVFR CIGs this afternoon. Coverage of TSRA expected to increase over the next couple hours and push across the peninsula, impacting most if not all terminals, mainly between 20Z-02Z, but a few early ISO TS have and could continue to impact terminals earlier. Strong to severe TSRA possible. CIGs are forecast to become prevailing MVFR at KMCO and other inland terminals, and possibly along the coast from KDAB- KMLB, between 04Z-15Z. TEMPO IFR CIGs possible. Mainly VFR conditions after 15Z. Chances for TSRA/SHRA Wed afternoon slightly lower than today, but still SCT- WID.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 70 84 68 86 / 70 50 20 10 MCO 71 85 70 86 / 50 60 20 10 MLB 73 86 72 85 / 60 60 20 10 VRB 72 87 70 85 / 70 60 30 20 LEE 70 85 68 87 / 40 50 20 0 SFB 70 86 68 88 / 50 50 20 10 ORL 71 85 70 87 / 50 60 20 10 FPR 72 86 70 85 / 70 70 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570.