textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all east central Florida counties between 10 AM and 8 PM for peak heat indices of 108F to 112F. Practice heat safety!

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each afternoon through early next week. Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be the main storm hazards.

- Hot conditions will continue over the next couple of days with temperatures trending closer to normal late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Today-Tonight...Broad mid-level ridging continues to weaken today with the surface ridge axis remaining well south of central Florida. A frontal boundary will remain quasi-stationary across the southeast US, with a moist air mass situated over east central Florida. Light west to southwest winds will persist both at the surface and aloft, with early development of showers and storms anticipated along the west coast of Florida. Convection will spread across the peninsula through early afternoon, with interactions along the delayed east coast sea breeze prompting further shower and storm development. The environment continues to look favorable for strong storm development across east central Florida, with adequate daytime heating supporting instability, dry air aloft supporting downdraft potential, and PWATs exceeding 2" areawide supporting heavy rainfall. Hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and heavy downpours. Quick accumulations of 1-3" leading to localized flooding cannot be ruled out. Boundary interactions may result in brief rotation in the form of funnel clouds, though confidence in this remains low. Westerly winds will continue to push activity offshore through the afternoon and evening hours, with drier conditions forecast overnight across the peninsula.

August heat persists across east central Florida, with highs climbing into the mid 90s and lows remaining near to above normal in the mid to upper 70s. Peak heat indices will continue to reach and exceed advisory criteria, with another Heat Advisory areawide between 10 AM and 8 PM. Residents and visitors should continue to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat-related illness. Adequate hydration, wearing lightweight, lightly colored clothing, and taking frequent breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building will be important and as always, never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles.

Thursday-Tuesday...An active pattern will persist across east central Florida through this week and into next week. A localized mid-level low is forecast to develop across the Gulf and northern Florida late this week but is forecast to be absorbed by a strengthening trough extending southward across the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure will remain situated south of the Florida peninsula as the quasi-stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US generally remains in place. This set-up will maintain a plume of moisture across the Florida peninsula, with daily afternoon shower and storm development forecast through this week and into the next. PoPs remain near normal at 40-60% each day with the typical afternoon storm hazards anticipated with development. Activity will diminish into the late evening and overnight hours. Outside of the daily convection, heat will continue to be a concern. Highs in the mid 90s on Thursday will trend closer to normal values from Friday onward, but humid conditions will persist with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed for Thursday and even Friday across portions of the area, though values are forecast to remain just shy of advisory criteria from Saturday onward. Will continue to closely monitor and issue heat products as needed.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through this week and into the weekend as the surface ridge axis remains well south. West to southwest winds will persist at 10 to 15 knots, becoming south to southeast during the afternoon hours as the east coast sea breeze develops. Seas will remain between 1 to 3 feet, highest across the offshore waters. A moist air mass will remain in place across the area, with offshore-moving showers and storms forecast during the afternoon and evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. Activity is anticipated to diminish into the overnight hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 143 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection. Prevailing westerly flow backs SE in the afternoon at the coast as the sea breeze develops after around 18/19Z. Winds remain around 10 kts or less. The sea breeze will be the focus for convection today, with TEMPOs included for coastal sites from 20-0Z. Interior locations could see a few storms, with VCTS included there, but the highest chances will remain east of MCO/ISM. Convection looks to diminish by around 0Z, though a few showers may linger near the coast through around 2Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 94 77 93 76 / 60 30 60 10 MCO 96 77 96 77 / 70 30 60 20 MLB 94 78 93 77 / 60 20 50 20 VRB 94 75 93 76 / 50 30 40 20 LEE 95 78 94 77 / 60 30 60 20 SFB 95 78 95 77 / 70 30 60 20 ORL 95 78 95 78 / 70 30 60 20 FPR 93 75 92 75 / 60 30 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.