textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- High coverage of showers and storms into the weekend; A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists through at least Friday, with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall forecast.

- A few strong storms will be possible, mainly in the afternoons, with wind gusts near 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Warm and muggy conditions continue, with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices up to 102-106 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Today-Tonight...A surface front stalls across north Florida today, as a low pressure system moves off of the Northeast US coast. Aloft, an upper level trough digs southward into Florida, before moving offshore overnight. Locally, this looks to begin a wet pattern over the next several days. Breezy southwesterly flow, with gusts near 20 mph, will prevent the development of the sea breeze today. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.5") and upper level support will lead to high coverage of showers and storms area- wide today and into tonight. PoPs through this afternoon range from 40-70%, highest for areas near and north of Melbourne. Unfortunately, CAMs have really struggled to nail down convective evolution today, with a bit to be desired from run to run consistency on where the heaviest rainfall could occur. The driver for convection will be outflow boundaries and perturbations in the upper level flow, unlike our more typical sea breeze patterns. Thus, hourly PoPs are quite general overall. Showers and storms will remain possible overnight north of the Treasure Coast, with PoPs 30-50%.

Any storms today into tonight will be capable of a quick 1-3", with isolated higher totals possible in any training bands. Given recent trends, areas along and north of I-4 look to have the highest chance for locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low. All but southern portions of the Treasure Coast are under a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall today. The greatest potential for a few strong storms will be across southern portions of the area, where lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few wind gusts to near 50 mph. High cloud and precipitation coverage will moderate highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, maximum heat indices will linger near 102-106 degrees.

Friday-Sunday...Our wet pattern continues into the weekend, as the front remains stalled through Saturday, before beginning to lift northward on Sunday. Aloft, the upper level trough moves offshore through the period, though mid-level shortwaves will continue to traverse the area. High coverage of showers and storms each day (up to 60-80%), as southwesterly flow persists. However, will see the pressure gradient slacken into this weekend, allowing for the sea breeze to develop but remain pinned near the coast and focus convection. Deep moisture will continue to support potential quick rainfall totals of 1-3+", with multiple waves of showers and storms each day. Areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over several days could see increasing minor flooding concerns. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall continues through at least Friday, though Saturday could be the wettest day of the period, with deep PWATs and the pinned east coast sea breeze.

Despite the presence of deep moisture, some drier air in the mid- levels will continue to support a few strong wind gusts up to 50-55 mph, particularly Friday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible each night during the overnight hours, especially north of I-4, closest to the stalled front. High temperatures linger in the lower 90s, with peak heat indices 102-107, regardless of the high coverage of showers and storms.

Monday-Thursday...The Atlantic ridge axis drifts northward through the period, as high pressure develops aloft over the eastern Gulf. Light, generally southerly/southeasterly flow will prevail, allowing for a more normal sea breeze pattern to develop. This pattern, combined with a bit of drier air aloft from the Saharan Air Layer will lead to nearer to normal PoPs (40-60%) across the area. Lower coverage of showers and storms, with clearer skies, will allow highs temperatures to creep towards the mid-90s over the interior, with lower 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain warm and muggy in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Today-Tonight...A tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge axis to the south and a stalled boundary across north Florida will support poor boating conditions, mainly offshore, through today. SW winds 10-15 kts across the nearshore waters and 15-20 kts offshore today improve to 10-15 kts tonight. Small craft should exercise caution over the offshore waters through this afternoon. A wet pattern begins today, increasing the amount of offshore-moving activity. A few strong storms, with gusts to near 45 kts, will be possible, be sure to keep an eye to the western sky for approaching storms. Seas 2-4 ft.

Friday-Tuesday...High coverage of showers and storms persists through the weekend, with activity moving eastward and offshore, especially in the afternoons. However, showers and storms will remain possible in the overnight hours. Despite this, boating conditions improve as SW flow slackens to 15 kts or less through Saturday. Then, the Atlantic ridge axis moves northward into early next week, backing winds S/SE. Shower and storm coverage returns to near normal by Monday. Seas 1-3 ft.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Challenging forecast over the next 12-18 hours as we monitor a weak disturbance and associated shower and storm opportunities. For now, did not make many changes to ongoing VC/TEMPO lines in the TAFs. Kept a consistency approach as guidance is varying from run-to-run. Bottom line, expect increasing coverage of showers/storms by late morning into the afternoon, with impacts including brief IFR restrictions and occasional lightning strikes. Aside from this, VFR with light W/SW flow up to 12 KT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 75 91 74 / 60 50 70 60 MCO 91 77 92 75 / 70 40 70 40 MLB 90 76 91 75 / 70 20 70 40 VRB 90 74 91 73 / 60 10 60 40 LEE 90 77 91 76 / 70 50 70 60 SFB 91 77 92 76 / 70 50 70 50 ORL 91 77 92 76 / 70 50 70 40 FPR 90 74 91 73 / 60 10 60 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.