textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- The potential for locally heavy rainfall exists through this weekend as the wet pattern continues coupled with slow-moving showers and storms. A few storms will be capable of wind gusts to 40-50 mph. - Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue to produce peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate Risk for rip currents today at east central Florida beaches. Remember to always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows general slow moving west-northwest moving scattered showers and lightning storms across east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures are currently in the mid 80s to low 90s with heat index values generally between 100F-108F degrees. Dew points are in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Analysis charts show the western fringe of the Bermuda high over local Atlantic waters. The 15Z XMR sounding indicates MLCAPE at 2,455 J/kg, PWAT at 2.2", and 0-6km shear at 11 kts. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage into the late afternoon and evening as collisions occur between easterly flow, the west coast sea breeze over western central Florida, as well as outflow from previous storms. Rain chances are forecast to gradually diminish around 9PM. Isolated showers and lightning storms cannot be ruled out from Cape Canaveral southwards. The potential exists for a couple to a a few strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 60 minutes). Above normal (~1-3F+) lows in the low to upper 70s.

Friday-Saturday... The Atlantic ridge is expected to continue to build over the western Atlantic into the weekend. A more typical diurnally driven sea breeze pattern is expected compared to the past several days which will result in a gradual increase in rain chances at the coast with offshore moving showers and lightning storms. Scattered to numerous showers (~50-70% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop each day (mainly between 12PM-8PM) across east central Florida as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous storms. The greatest coverage is forecast generally along and near I-4 where the greatest surface convergence is forecast. Guidance continues to indicate an environment sufficient for isolated strong storms with high instability, weak bulk shear, and plentiful moisture. The strong storm potential will be greatest on Friday with guidance showing PVA pivoting across east central Florida which will provide additional lift for strong to marginally severe storm(s).

The primary hazards for a couple to a few strong storms on Friday and Saturday are frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph (<5% chance of wind gusts up to 60mph on Friday), and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"+ in 60 minutes). Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values up to 102F-107F are forecast. Above normal lows (~1-4+ degrees) in the low to upper 70s are forecast. There is a Moderate HeatRisk with areas of Major HeatRisk on Friday and Saturday. A Moderate HeatRisk affects those sensitive to heat and a Major HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

Sunday-Wednesday... Global models and LREF-clusters are in good agreement that a mid/upper level high will build over the eastern CONUS Sunday and into next week. Thus, a continuation of the diurnally sea breeze showers and lightning storm pattern is forecast through Monday before onshore flow develops across east central Florida and strengthens Tuesday into Wednesday. Scattered to numerous/widespread showers (50-90% chance Sunday reduce to ) and lightning storms are forecast each afternoon and evening. Global models and the NBM indicate that rain chances are forecast to decrease into next week as onshore flow becomes established over east central Florida. Global models continue to show high instability with weak shear and sufficient moisture during the forecast period which is conducive for isolated to scattered strong storms capable of frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. There is a up to 20-70% chance of a Major HeatRisk for areas of east central Florida Sunday to Monday with lower chances on Tuesday (up to 20-50% chance).

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Currently-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers/lightning storms as the Bermuda high builds west over the western Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, as well as tomorrow. Storm motions will vary from onshore to offshore. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts of 34kts or greater. South-southeast winds at 5-10kts are forecast to veer south-southwest overnight before backing onshore into the afternoon on Friday. Seas to 1-2ft with up to 3 ft over the offshore and Gulf Stream waters are forecast.

Saturday-Monday... Favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers/lightning storms. The western fringe of the Bermuda high is expected to build west over the western Atlantic waters into the weekend. A continuation of the diurnally sea breeze driven shower and lightning storm pattern is expected. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast each day through Sunday (rain chances decrease to 30% on Monday) with the greatest potential in the mid morning to afternoon hours. Storm motions are expected to vary from onshore to offshore. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts of 34kts or greater. Generally, south-southwest winds at 5-10kts are forecast to back south-southeast into each afternoon. Seas to 1-2ft are forecast (up to 3ft in the offshore Volusia county waters on Sunday).

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 748 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Storms continue to develop NW of the I-4 corridor from outflow and sea breeze collisions, and have a tempo group for cig/vis reductions in TSRA at KLEE through 02Z. This activity may be able to produce outflow that leads to additional storm development closer to KMCO/KSFB/KISM this evening and therefore have continued VCTS for these sites through 02Z as well. Otherwise, convection should gradually diminish through late evening, with some lingering areas of light rain possible through midnight. Dry conditions forecast overnight, with scattered to numerous showers and storms again developing tomorrow afternoon. Have VCTS at the coast starting at 17-18Z and 19Z for inland sites. Sea breeze collision will be favored near the I-4 corridor late in the day tomorrow, with convection gradually diminishing into Friday evening. Light and variable winds overnight, with sea breeze developing, picking up winds out of the E/SE around 8-11 knots at the coast in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 91 75 91 / 20 60 10 60 MCO 76 92 76 93 / 20 60 20 70 MLB 77 91 77 91 / 20 50 20 50 VRB 75 90 75 90 / 20 50 30 50 LEE 76 91 76 92 / 40 60 30 70 SFB 75 92 76 92 / 20 60 20 70 ORL 76 91 77 92 / 20 60 20 70 FPR 75 90 75 89 / 20 50 40 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.