textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Earlier start to convection today with isolated strong to marginally severe storms. Storm hazards include isolated damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Scattered afternoon and evening rain chances are forecast Sunday with drier air gradually reducing rain chances by Monday and Tuesday.

- Going into the work weak, heat and widespread Major HeatRisk impacts return the first half, then taper off the second half.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Current-Tonight... An early start to convection has been primarily focused from Brevard and Osceola county northward early this afternoon. Storm motion is tracked towards the east around 20 mph with activity forecast to continue moving offshore through the next several hours. A few stronger storms have been able to develop with the tallest storm tops reaching 40,000-50,000 ft. Isolated downburst signatures were observed on TMCO radar earlier today with velocities around 40-50 mph. Around 1:20 PM a stronger signature was observed around 55-60 mph, and prompted a brief Severe Thunderstorm Warning for portions of the Orlando metro. As we continue to monitor ongoing activity across the north, we also are watching for additional development across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast as outflow interacts with a well defined sea breeze. This area has remained mostly rain free as of 2:30PM and will be the greatest focus for strong to marginally severe storms through the remainder of the afternoon. SPC has now included all of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk for severe storms, and the strongest storms will be capable of localized damaging wind gusts of 60 mph, frequent lightning, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. A brief spinup of a funnel cloud or waterspout cannot be ruled out as offshore flow and outflow boundaries interact with the east coast sea breeze. Activity first clears across the northern interior most areas while showers and isolated storms may linger along the coast through late evening. Dry conditions are then forecast through the remainder of the overnight period.

Sunday-Monday... A stationary front extending across portions of the western Atlantic and southeast U.S. is gradually lifted northward as low pressure organizes across the central U.S. and into the midwest. A ribbon of mid level energy stretched across north Florida early Sunday gradually dissipates through late Monday, and occasional pulses of vorticity may pass over central Florida through the period. High pressure gradually builds aloft with its axis settling near south Florida or the Florida Straits. A broadly structured surface ridge axis remains south of the local area, and a loose pressure gradient should keep light offshore flow in place. Drier air should work to gradually reduce diurnal rain chances each day with scattered showers and storms on Sunday (30-50%) becoming more widely isolated to scattered (20-40%) on Monday. Efficient surface heating and mixing of dry air aloft may allow for a few strong storms capable of frequent lightning and downburst wind gusts of 40- 50 mph. Weakening steering flow may also contribute to a localized threat for heavy rainfall in slow moving storms. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s on Sunday increase 2-3 degrees into Monday. A Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk exists on Sunday with increasing heat impacts expected Monday as a Major HeatRisk becomes more widespread. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle for any period of time! Look before you lock!

Tuesday-Friday... A mid level "troughy" patten holds over the eastern U.S. while high pressure works to maintain influence of the local weather pattern. Offshore surface flow persists while the structure of a weak ridge axis is generally maintained near or over south Florida. Lower coverage of isolated to scattered storms continues Tuesday before a more summerlike pattern of widely scattered showers and storms returns each afternoon and evening mid to late week. The heat continues, with above normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will continue to impact east central Florida through the period. Remember to stay hydrated and reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day.

MARINE

Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast outside of showers and storms. Offshore flow and deep moisture is favoring high coverage of offshore moving showers and storms this afternoon and evening, and a strong storm will be capable of wind gusts of 34 kts or greater. Prevailing offshore flow mostly remains 10 kts or less into early next week, and winds shift east-southeast in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Scattered coverage of showers and storms continues Sunday with drier air helping to reduce rain chances over the waters into mid week. Seas of 1-2 ft persist.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Lingering VCSH near LEE, MCO, ISM, and SUA diminishing by 01Z. Light and variable winds overnight and through Sunday morning, with no VIS or CIG reductions forecast. The ECSB will develop after 17Z, causing winds to pick up out of the ESE around 10 knots from MLB southward. Less confidence in the sea breeze moving inland at TIX and DAB. Across the interior, VCTS chances increase after 18Z as the west coast sea breeze moves across the area, with the eventual sea breeze collision leading to peak coverage of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon after approximately 20Z. No TEMPOs yet, but will monitor for future forecast packages. Winds become light and variable once again on Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 90 75 93 / 20 50 20 30 MCO 75 93 76 95 / 20 50 20 30 MLB 75 90 77 91 / 20 50 30 30 VRB 74 91 76 92 / 40 50 40 30 LEE 76 92 76 95 / 10 50 20 10 SFB 75 94 76 96 / 20 60 30 20 ORL 76 92 77 95 / 20 50 20 20 FPR 74 91 75 92 / 40 50 40 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.