textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 259 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

- High Fire Danger this afternoon across northern portions of east central Florida due to low RH values and gusty southwest winds.

- Warming trend will continue through late week, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s today and low to mid 80s on Friday.

- Mostly dry today through Friday morning, with rain chances and potential for storms increasing from Friday afternoon through Saturday with an approaching front.

- A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic will remain extended near to just south of the area, with south-southwest flow continuing. Low level 925mb winds around 10-20 knots (highest near to north of the I-4 corridor) will lead to sfc wind speeds increasing to around 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible. This should hold off development of the east coast sea breeze north of the Cape, but this boundary should still develop near to south of the Cape later in the day, with winds switching to the southeast. After a slightly chilly start to the morning with morning lows in the 40s, afternoon temps will warm to above normal values in the upper 70s to low 80s. It will remain mostly dry again today into tonight, but may see isolated showers develop or move northeast into the southern Treasure Coast late afternoon/early evening before this activity shifts offshore.

An Elevated to High Fire Danger will exist across the area today due to a lingering drier airmass, warming temps and increasing south- southwest winds. Marginal Red Flag conditions (wind speeds of 15 mph and RH values at or just below 35%) will be possible near the I-4 corridor northward this afternoon, and have therefore issued a Red Flag Warning for northern portions of east central Florida that runs from 1-6 PM today.

Friday-Sunday...A weakening cold front approaches FL late Friday and slowly pushes southward, eventually stalling briefly across central FL Saturday before it shifts southward into late weekend. S/SW flow ahead of the front will continue to increase moisture and rain chances across the area later into Friday afternoon through Friday night and into Saturday. PoPs are forecast to reach 30% across the area Friday afternoon, and then increase to 40-50% for much of the area Friday night and around 50-60% Saturday with frontal boundary across the region.

Isolated storms may be possible Friday afternoon into Friday night, but better potential for storm development will be into Saturday afternoon as MUCAPE values increase to 500-1500 J/kg. Shear values don't look overly impressive, but cold temps aloft (around -12 to -14C at 500mb) may lead to small hail with any isolated stronger storms that can develop. Probabilities for rainfall totals at or above 0.5 inches are increasing across the area for the Friday-Saturday period (up to 30-40%), but then fall to 10% or less for totals at or above 1 inch. However, any storms could easily lead to localized totals of 1-2 inches. Rain chances decrease Saturday night into Sunday as passing S/W trough finally shifts front south of the area. However, a slight chance for showers/storms will persist into Sunday with some lingering moisture and instability persisting across the area.

Highs continue to increase into Friday, with values above normal in the low to mid 80s. Increasing rain chances/cloud cover and the passing front will then lower max temps to the mid 70s to low 80s into the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday...Strong area of high pressure centered across the Great Lakes region will shift eastward into the northeast U.S. from the early to middle portion of next week. This will lead to a developing onshore flow that will maintain the potential for isolated to scattered onshore moving showers into next week. However, rain chances remain on the lower end (around 20-30%) through this period. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal across the area from early to midweek.

MARINE

Issued at 259 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Overall favorable boating conditions forecast to continue through late this week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic will remain near to just south of the area today and Friday, with S/SW winds becoming S/SE each evening. A front will approach the waters into Friday night and eventually move into central FL as it stalls briefly into Saturday. This boundary will then shift south into late weekend, with W/SW winds on Saturday gradually becoming onshore behind this boundary Sunday into early next week. Wind speeds forecast to reach up to 10-15 knots, with seas no more than 2-4 feet through the next several days. Dry conditions will largely continue through today across the coastal waters, but chance for showers and even a few storms will return to the forecast into tonight, with rain/storm chances increasing through Friday into Saturday with the approaching front. As the front passes, lingering isolated to scattered showers will be possible into late weekend and early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1238 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds tonight will become south to southwest and increase to around 10 KT by mid-morning. SW flow will increase to 11-13KT with gusts 18-20KT (gusts mainly for MCO-SFB-LEE-ISM-DAB-TIX-MLB) in the afternoon (around 17Z). Went ever so slightly above LAV guidance for MCO-SFB-ISM-LEE-DAB because the 925 mb winds over that area are around 15 KT and it wont take much for those winds to mix down. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form late Thursday afternoon (21/22Z), mainly from MLB southward, which will turn the winds onshore (SE). Winds will then become light once again Thursday evening/overnight. There is a 20 percent chance of showers for SUA in the afternoon when the sea breeze is pushing onshore. However, confidence this will occur is low, so have kept any mention of showers out of the TAF for now.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Elevated to High Fire Danger exists across the area this afternoon as south-southwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph, with Min RH values dropping as low as 30-40 percent. Greatest potential for winds to reach around 15 mph and RH values to fall to critical values (30-35%) will be near to northwest of the I-4 corridor. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been issued for these northern portions of east central Florida and will be in effect from 1-6 PM today. South to southwest winds up to 10-15 mph will continue into Friday, which will continue to increase moisture across the area and is forecast to keep RH values above critical values. Rain chances will increase ahead of an approaching front from late Friday through Saturday as this boundary moves into the region. PoPs increase from 30 percent Friday afternoon to 40-50 percent for much of the area Friday night and up to 50-60 percent on Saturday. Some lightning storms will also be possible, with greatest potential for storms into Saturday afternoon. Dispersion values will become Very Good to Excellent today and Friday, with control issues possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 79 57 81 59 / 0 10 30 60 MCO 79 60 83 63 / 0 10 30 50 MLB 79 59 82 61 / 0 10 30 50 VRB 80 58 83 61 / 10 10 30 50 LEE 79 58 82 61 / 0 10 30 50 SFB 79 58 83 62 / 0 10 30 50 ORL 79 60 83 63 / 0 10 30 50 FPR 80 58 84 59 / 10 10 30 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.