textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- An active weather pattern is forecast through the remainder of this week and into the next, with scattered to numerous showers and storms anticipated through at least Monday.

- Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding will also be possible in some locations.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast across east central Florida through next week, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide. Practice heat safety if spending extended periods of time outdoors!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Today-Tonight...Mid and surface level high pressure will weaken across east central Florida today, with troughing beginning to develop across western Florida and the eastern Gulf. This set-up will translate to light and variable winds areawide today along with increasing moisture locally. The east and west coast sea breezes are forecast to develop, with weak flow aloft allowing for easy intrusion inland through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development ahead of and along the sea breezes will be possible early this afternoon, primarily after 12 PM. A sea breeze collision is favored across the central peninsula, with peak coverage of showers and storms forecast to occur after 2 PM. The environment appears supportive for strong storm development with this activity. SBCAPE values ranging from 2000-2700 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates, DCAPE ranging from 700-1000 J/kg, and 500 mb temperatures of -8 to -7C will support frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and even small hail within the strongest storms. Additionally, weak steering flow combined with PWATs exceeding 2" areawide will increase the potential for quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3", with some spots reaching 4" and greater. Minor, localized flooding will be possible with storms today. Activity is forecast to gradually diminish into the late evening and overnight hours across east central Florida, with mostly dry conditions anticipated after midnight.

Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s this afternoon with peak heat indices of 100-107F. Lows remain in the 70s. At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents continues through today. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the surf alone!

Saturday-Monday...The mid-level low will support development of a broad surface low across the eastern Gulf and near northwest Florida on Saturday. The low itself is anticipated to meander near this area through Monday. NHC has kept a 20% chance of tropical development across the northeastern Gulf and northern Florida with this activity. Regardless, the development of the low will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across east central Florida, with southerly winds picking up to 10 to 15 mph areawide. Increasing moisture through the weekend and into early next week as a result of the southerly flow and the developing low will lead to scattered to numerous shower and storm chances across the area, primarily during the afternoon hours each day. WPC also continues to highlight portions of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall on Monday due to saturated soils and the ongoing active pattern. Shower and storm activity is forecast to diminish into the overnight hours each day, with ongoing isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across the local Atlantic waters each night. Temperatures are anticipated to remain near to slightly above normal through this weekend and into Monday, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the 70s.

Tuesday-Thursday...The mid-level low gradually diminishes into the middle of next week, causing the low at the surface to weaken and diminish. Mid-level ridging across the southeastern US will extend towards the Florida peninsula, with a gradual return of the broad surface high into the middle of next week. The surface ridge axis will lift northward across central Florida, keeping winds generally out of the south outside of the east coast sea breeze causing winds to become more southeasterly in the afternoons. As far as shower and storm chances go, there are some disagreements on how next week will pan out as the low diminishes. The Euro is indicating drier air moving in across east central Florida and lower rain chances while the GFS favors moisture lingering across the area, resulting in higher rain chances. Stuck with the NBM, which shows 30-50% chances on Tuesday and 20-40% chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Would not be surprised to see some back and forth within the forecast as these discrepancies are worked out over the coming days. Temperatures are anticipated to trend warmer mid to late week, with greater coverage of mid 90s for highs forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Lows remain in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters through today as broad high pressure continues to weaken, leading to light and variable winds and seas of generally 1 to 3 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible, particularly across the nearshore waters into the late evening hours and across the Gulf Stream waters overnight. Any storms that develop or move offshore may be capable of producing lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas.

Into this weekend, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop across the eastern Gulf, leading to a tightening pressure gradient and increasing southerly winds. Wind speeds increase to 15 to 20 knots across the local waters, with seas generally forecast to remain between 2 to 4 feet. The low will gradually meander northward before weakening next week, with persistent southerly winds anticipated at least through the middle of next week. Seas will remain between 2 to 4 feet. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible, primarily during the late evening and overnight hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 144 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. While most areas will remain dry overnight, some lingering showers are ongoing around SUA tonight. Have included VCSH through 08Z for SUA to account for that. Light southwest winds will become northwest and increase to 5-10 KT by mid-morning. The east coast sea breeze will form in the afternoon, turning the winds onshore behind it. Have included VCTS for all sites starting at 18Z. Have not included TEMPOs at this time, but will likely add them in later packages. Lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the area by 00Z across the interior and around 03Z for the coast. Winds will then become light and variable once again in the evening and overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 75 92 75 / 40 20 30 10 MCO 93 75 93 76 / 70 30 50 20 MLB 90 76 92 77 / 50 20 40 10 VRB 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 40 20 LEE 92 76 92 76 / 70 40 50 20 SFB 93 76 93 76 / 70 30 50 10 ORL 92 76 93 77 / 70 30 50 10 FPR 92 74 92 74 / 40 20 50 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.