textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast today, with lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy downpours all possible.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast through the rest of the week and into this weekend, with a frontal boundary bringing increasing moisture into early next week. Rain and storm chances increase as a result Monday onward.

- Hot and muggy conditions persist areawide with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast each day through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Today-Tonight...Broad mid-level troughing extending towards the Florida peninsula will gradually weaken through today, with a surface frontal boundary draped across the northern peninsula slowly lifting northward as a result. This will allow the surface ridge axis to reestablish itself across central Florida, with light south to southwest flow forecast areawide early this morning. This light flow continues into the low and mid levels, allowing for the development and westward push inland of the east coast sea breeze late this morning and into the afternoon hours. PWATs of 1.6-1.9" will be enough moisture for the development of isolated to scattered showers and storms along the sea breeze boundary as it moves inland, with coverage anticipated to peak this afternoon between 2 PM and 8 PM as the sea breeze collision occurs across the center of the peninsula. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with daytime heating will support convective development with this activity and cooler 500mb temperatures and dry air aloft will favor some gusty downbursts and small hail at times through this afternoon. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours will be possible with the strongest storms that develop. A brief funnel cloud or two and even a brief tornado cannot be fully ruled out where multiple boundary collisions occur, but confidence in this remains very low at this time. Through the evening hours and as the environment becomes worked over, activity is anticipated to diminish across east central Florida. Mostly dry conditions will then prevail through the overnight hours along with light and variable winds and mostly clear skies.

Temperatures across east central Florida have remained a concern, and today is no different. Afternoon highs are forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s, with the warmest temperatures focused across the interior. Humid conditions persist, combining with temperatures to produce peak heat indices in the 100-105F range. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast, with some pockets of Major HeatRisk forecast near the Orlando metro and across portions of Brevard and Indian River counties. Overall, adequate hydration and frequent breaks from the heat will be key in preventing heat illness today. Overnight, muggy conditions will continue with lows in the 70s areawide.

Friday-Sunday...Mid-level ridging will gradually build across the southeastern US through the remainder of this week and into the weekend, supporting continued broad high pressure at the surface. The surface ridge axis is forecast to stay draped across the Florida peninsula, resulting in persistent light south to southwest winds locally. This lighter flow at the surface combined with hot temperatures will continue to support the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon, with winds along the east coast becoming more south to southeast. The progression inland of the sea breeze will be dependent on the low to mid level flow, which guidance shows as generally remaining weaker through the rest of the week out of the south to southwest. This would continue to favor the sea breeze collision across the central peninsula, with the highest rain chances on Friday favored near the Orlando metro. Into this weekend, some model guidance solutions show drier air moving towards the area, resulting in decreasing rain and storm chances. The NBM has trended towards the drier solutions, with rain and storm chances around 30-40% on Saturday and 20-30% on Sunday. There still remains uncertainty with this however, so could see PoPs trend in either direction as the picture becomes clearer. Exact storm hazards remain up in the air especially given uncertainty with this drier air into the weekend, but lightning, gusty winds to 50 mph, and heavy downpours will all be possible with the strongest storm activity. Showers and storms are forecast to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours each day, with mostly dry conditions overnight into the early morning hours.

As mentioned, hot temperatures are anticipated to persist through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 90s nearly areawide, with some spots on Sunday reaching the upper 90s, especially near and north of the I-4 corridor. These temperatures will combine with humidity to produce peak heat indices in the 100-107F range. Additionally, with the above normal temperatures ongoing for an extended period of time, HeatRisk values are forecast to widely be Moderate to Major, with coverage of Major HeatRisk expanding to cover more of east central Florida each day. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk indicates that most people will be more susceptible to heat- related illness without proper preventative action. If spending extended periods of time outdoors, be sure to remain adequately hydrated, take breaks in the shade or an air-conditioned building, and if possible, shift outdoor activities away from the peak heat hours of the day. Overnight, temperatures remain in the 70s areawide.

Monday-Wednesday...Mid-level ridging centered across the southeast US will be shoved westward as a trough slides southward along the east coast and towards the Florida peninsula on Monday. This will result in the development of a low off the coast of the Carolinas, with current guidance indicating a frontal boundary shifting southward towards Florida in association with the low. Moisture is anticipated to increase across the peninsula as a result. Energy from the mid-level trough will remain situated overhead across the Florida peninsula through mid-week, allowing for the boundary to remain in place and nearly stationary. Broad surface high pressure centered across the Gulf will be present through early next week, with the ridge axis extending towards Florida. The persistent offshore flow is anticipated to veer and become more onshore by the middle of next week, allowing for greater intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze. This in combination with the increasing moisture will prompt a return of 40-70% rain and storm chances across east central Florida through the extended forecast, with the greatest chances focused across the interior. It is too early to determine exact timing and storm threats, but would anticipate coverage peaking during the afternoon and early evening hours with lightning, wind gusts, and heavy downpours all possible. Guidance indicates coverage waning into the late evening and overnight hours, with ongoing development across the local Atlantic waters possible.

Temperatures into early next week are forecast to remain above normal values, with the warmest highs anticipated on Monday afternoon. Peak heat indices above 100F are forecast to continue, with some locations potentially nearing Heat Advisory criteria on Monday. It is still too early to determine this with a lot of confidence, but it will continue to be monitored closely. Residents and visitors are encouraged to closely follow the forecast and plan accordingly if spending extended periods of time outdoors. Remain hydrated, wear lightweight, light colored clothing, and take breaks from the heat in the shade or an air conditioned building.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters as broad high pressure remains in place through this weekend. Seas of 1-3 feet persist along with south to southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots. Rain chances are also forecast to remain fairly limited, with only isolated coverage anticipated at times.

The pattern shifts into early next week as a boundary drifts southward towards the local waters and a low develops off the coast of the Carolinas, resulting in winds becoming more onshore around 10 knots towards the middle of the week. Seas are forecast to gradually build, potentially reaching up to 4 to 5 feet offshore. There remains some uncertainty with this though. Rain and storm chances are forecast to increase across the waters Monday onward as moisture increases areawide.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 729 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR outside of afternoon/early evening storms. Light SW winds around 5 kt this morning become 5-10 kt after 15z, veering SSE at coastal sites by 16-18z. TEMPO/PROB30 included at all ECFL sites between 17z-00z as TSRA develop. Highest confidence in MVFR/IFR impacts from ISM/MCO northward to DAB, eventually shifting toward TIX/MLB before activity weakens 00-03z. Gusts 35+ kt are possible with stronger storms. VFR and drier after 04z Fri.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 75 93 76 / 50 40 40 20 MCO 94 76 94 77 / 60 50 50 30 MLB 91 77 90 78 / 40 30 20 10 VRB 92 77 91 77 / 40 20 30 10 LEE 94 77 94 78 / 50 30 50 30 SFB 95 76 95 77 / 60 40 50 30 ORL 94 77 94 77 / 60 40 50 30 FPR 91 76 91 77 / 40 20 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.