textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast this afternoon and evening, with lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy downpours all possible.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast through the rest of the week and into this weekend, with a frontal boundary bringing increasing moisture into early next week. Rain and storm chances increase as a result Monday onward.

- Hot and muggy conditions persist areawide with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast each day through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Current-Tonight... A stationary front is analyzed over portions of north Florida while a broad ridge axis remains settled over the Florida peninsula. Light winds have allowed the east coast sea breeze to develop from the Cape southward early this afternoon, and some convection has already started to bubble up on the east side of Lake Okeechobee as boundary interactions occur. Additional development of scattered showers and storms is anticipated across much of the area through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. In addition to sufficient surface instability, modeled pulses of shortwave energy aloft may enhance the potential for strong storm development. Tall updrafts which interact with dry air aloft (DCAPE ~ 800-1,200 J/Kg) will have the potential for isolated strong downbursts producing wind gusts around 55 mph. 500mb temperatures analyzed around -8C may become locally cooler in the presence of any passing shortwave energy, and small hail will also be possible with strong convection today. Light steering flow should push convection towards the nort-northeast, although direction may become variable at times around boundary interactions. Slow moving storms will promote the potential for locally heavy rainfall through this evening. Activity gradually dwindles beyond sunset with mostly dry conditions then forecast overnight. Low temperatures fall into the low to mid 70s.

Friday-Sunday... High pressure aloft builds across the southeast U.S. through late this weekend. At the surface, a weak ridge axis remains draped across the Florida peninsula, extending westward from the Atlantic high. A typical summertime pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms (~40-60%) is forecast Friday and Saturday. Drier conditions are currently forecast on Sunday with rain chances ranging 20-40%, however model disagreement in moisture may lead to some fluctuation in Sunday's PoPs over the next few forecast cycles. Model sounding profiles suggests a modest layer of dry air persisting in the low to mid levels through the period, continuing the potential for localized thunderstorm downbursts within stronger storms. Stronger storms which develop, will be capable of wind gusts 40-50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Light steering flow may lead to localized heavy rainfall within slow moving or stationary storms.

Hot, above normal, temperatures persist late this week and into early next week. Highs mostly range the low to mid 90s along the coast with mid 90s across the interior. Localized areas north and west of the I-4 region may even touch the upper 90s this weekend with moderate probabilities (40-50%) of meeting or exceeding 97F. Peak heat index values mostly range 102-107F, and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk will impact those without adequate cooling or hydration.

Monday-Wednesday... The local synoptic pattern shifts Monday into midweek as a mid level trough rounds the eastern side of high pressure anchored over the eastern U.S. Deep moisture builds as a surface front sags near or across central Florida. This should result in increasing rain chances (50-80%) through the extended forecast period. Models indicate light offshore flow persisting through the low and mid levels Monday, and a warm, moist airmass may support periods of locally heavy rainfall as the sea breeze slowly moves inland against the prevailing flow. An east-northeast shift in winds into mid week will allow for an easier inland progression of the east coast sea breeze, but a heavy rainfall threat may still exist where storms become stationary along boundary collisions with greatest focus towards the interior. Very hot and humid on Monday with peak heat index values widely exceeding 104F. A few degrees "cooler" Tuesday and Wednesday, but still remaining above normal in the low to mid 90s.

MARINE

Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A broad axis of high pressure is maintained over the local Atlantic waters through the weekend. Southerly winds remain 10 kts or less early each day before turning south-southeast around 10-15 kts each afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze develops. Seas of 1-2 ft persist into early next week, occasionally building to 3 ft far offshore. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast over the local Atlantic waters again this afternoon and evening, and a few strong storms will be capable of wind gusts 34 kts or greater. Coverage of showers and storms decreases over the waters late week. However, isolated to scattered convection may be possible over the Gulf Stream during the nighttime hours.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 748 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected outside of showers/storms with the potential for a few strong storms across ECFL FRI aftn/eve. Light and variable winds are expected to increase at 5-10kts with gusts up to 15kts into the aftn/eve FRI generally from the SSE except at KLEE where winds are forecast to veer SSW. VCTS returns after 18Z/19Z FRI with PROB30/TEMPO groups for TSRA into the aftn/eve.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 92 76 92 / 40 50 30 40 MCO 75 94 76 94 / 20 60 60 60 MLB 77 90 78 90 / 40 20 20 40 VRB 76 91 77 91 / 20 30 10 40 LEE 76 93 77 94 / 20 50 30 40 SFB 75 95 76 95 / 30 60 50 60 ORL 76 93 77 93 / 20 60 60 60 FPR 75 90 76 90 / 20 40 10 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.