textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- A pattern of sea breeze focused showers and storms continues early this week. Tuesday and Wednesday bring breezier conditions with additional rounds of onshore moving showers and storms.

- Temperatures return closer to normal by the middle and latter part of next.

- A moderate risk for rip currents continues at east central Florida beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Today-Tonight... A weak area of low pressure lifts northeast along the mid Atlantic and northeast coastline today. An associated weak surface boundary sinks through the southeast U.S., and surface ridging over the region becomes more loosely defined. Winds remain light, generally attempting to turn offshore ahead of scattered diurnal convection. High-res guidance generally favors convection on the west coast sea breeze, aiding a faster progression inland compared to the east coast breeze. Therefore, a sea breeze collision is forecast just east of the Orlando Metro where the greatest coverage of showers and storms should occur late in the afternoon and into the evening. Steering flow will remain light, although some pushback toward the coast may occur after the collision. The primary storm threat remains heavy downpours and the potential for minor flooding in slow moving storms. Otherwise, frequent lightning and localized wind gusts 40-50 mph could accompany any stronger storms. Light to moderate showers and occasional lightning strikes will likely linger beyond sunset, mostly drying by 10PM.

Expect a muggy start to the day with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s around sunrise. Temperatures quickly climb into the 80s, and afternoon highs mostly reach the low 90s today. Peak heat index values again reach the low triple digits, ranging 100-106 degrees.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone.

Monday-Wednesday... A mid to upper level trough slides offshore the northeast U.S. and digs over the western Atlantic as ridging amplifies throughout the eastern U.S. Surface high pressure quickly builds over the eastern seaboard behind the offshore moving surface front. Winds veer northwest to northeast Monday becoming locally enhanced out of the east-northeast around 10 mph as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. The developing onshore flow should favor the highest coverage of sea breeze driven showers and storms (~60%) inland and over the western peninsula Monday. A tightening pressure gradient associated with expanding high pressure increases east- northeast winds to around 15 mph on Tuesday and 15-20 mph on Wednesday. Models indicate a gradient of dry air stretching into portions of north-central Florida Tuesday and Wednesday with highest rain chances currently forecast south of Orlando and the Cape (60- 80%) where the deepest moisture should reside. However, moistening of the low levels within increasing onshore flow should be supportive of rounds of at least scattered (30-50%) showers and storms further north. Coastal locations should generally continue to see rounds of showers and occasional storms each night. High temperatures near to slightly above seasonal values (U80s/L90s) on Monday fall a few degrees towards climatological normals by Wednesday (U80s).

Thursday-Saturday... Uncertainty continues to exist within the synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. Ridging aloft remains anchored over the southeast U.S. Thursday, gradually breaking down late week and into the weekend. A broad area of low pressure over the southwest Atlantic on Thursday passes over Florida into Friday as it rounds the southern side of the decaying ridge. While models show general consistency within the track, guidance remains split on how the mid level low may evolve. Deterministic guidance shows this feature as a closed low while ensemble guidance continue to keep a broad open wave as it passes aloft late week.

Breezy onshore winds are forecast on Thursday before diminishing through the remainder of the week. Energy aloft should generally support a continued daily wet pattern of scattered to numerous rain chances. However, models show wide spread in moisture, and the extended PoP forecast may wiggle some over the next few forecast cycles. Afternoon highs hold near normal each day, ranging the upper 80s and nearing 90 degrees.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Today-Monday... Weak ridging over the local waters broadens early this week. Light offshore flow each morning shifts onshore with the sea breeze. Seas mostly hold around 2 ft, increasing to 3 ft far offshore north of the Cape. Isolated to scattered showers may develop over the Gulf Stream overnight and early each day. Otherwise, scattered rain chances are forecast near the coast and over the intracoastal waters along the sea breeze. Some activity may push back towards the coast this evening.

Tuesday-Thursday... Deteriorating boating conditions are expected into mid week as increasing onshore winds spread the local Atlantic waters. East-northeast winds 10-15 kts into Tuesday afternoon further increase 20-25 kts overnight and into Wednesday, especially north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas respond, building 5-8 ft into Wednesday morning. Conditions gradually improve Thursday as onshore winds fall to 10-15 kts and seas subside to 4-5 ft. Increased onshore flow should support high coverage of showers and storms over the waters through the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 121 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions prevailing, with quiet conditions overnight. Light, overall offshore flow through the morning hours becomes onshore with the development of the sea breeze after 16-18Z at the coast. Winds remain around 10 kts or less. CAMs suggest a somewhat stronger west coast sea breeze and, therefore, a collision closer to the east coast, just inland from the coastal terminals. Have included TEMPOs for interior sites as storms develop along the west coast breeze and push eastward. Lower confidence in storms making it to the coastal airports, so PROB30s there. Regardless, lighter storm motions look to once again allow convection to linger through around 1Z before diminishing along the collision.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 90 75 90 76 / 50 20 40 10 MCO 92 76 92 76 / 60 30 60 20 MLB 90 76 90 77 / 30 20 40 10 VRB 89 74 89 75 / 30 10 40 20 LEE 91 76 92 76 / 60 20 60 10 SFB 92 76 92 76 / 70 30 60 10 ORL 91 77 92 77 / 60 30 60 10 FPR 89 73 89 75 / 40 10 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.