textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- A hot and dry pattern will build through much of the week. Many interior locations are forecast to reach the low 90s from Wednesday into late week.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast behind a weak cold front today.

- A long period swell building across the local Atlantic waters will promote an increasing risk of life-threatening rip currents this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Today-Tonight... An upper level trough across the Ohio Valley will push eastward towards the eastern seaboard through the day. At the surface, a strengthening low pressure system off the eastern US coast will continue to push a cold front across east central Florida today. Satellite imagery analysis, as of 230PM, shows the front is currently draped across Osceola and Brevard counties. This front will continue to shift southward through the rest of the afternoon and into early evening. Current model guidance shows the cold front clearing ECFL by early evening. Locally, north to northeast winds have increased to 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph as the cold front pushes through. Moisture will remain sufficient (PW values around 1.0-1.3") to support showers and storms with the frontal boundary. There is a low to medium (20percent) chance of showers and storms through the day, with dry air building behind the boundary. Forecast sounding show adequate instability along the coast (600-900 J/kg of MUCAPE),cooler temperatures aloft ( -10 to -11C at 500mb), negative lifted index values, as well as sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE around 700-900 J/kg). Because of this, stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-40 mph, and small hail.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler due to the northeast flow and increasing cloud cover, brining temperatures closer to normal along the coast (low to mid 80s) and through the Orlando metro area (mid 80s). However, temperatures will remain above normal (mid to upper 80s) across the far interior, including portions of western Lake/Osceola, and Okeechobee as well as the western portions of the Treasure Coast.

Tuesday-Sunday... An upper level trough across the eastern US will push eastward and off the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. An upper level low pressure over Canada will drop down into the Great Lakes region mid to late week before it deepens across the Mid Atlantic States and moves out into the Atlantic by late week/early weekend. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build down from the eastern US across the Florida peninsula and remain in place through mid week. Developing low pressure across the Ohio Valley region will move eastward and push offshore the eastern seaboard and into the Atlantic Thursday, pulling the next cold front into Florida. Global ensemble models continue to be in slight disagreement on how cleanly the front will pass through east central Florida, with WPC showing the front clearing ECFL by early Friday morning. Another cold front (perhaps a little stronger than the previous front) will approach the local area Saturday, pushing through ECFL on Sunday.

Drier air behind the front that passed through Monday will keep conditions dry through mid week. Rain chances then return on Thursday with the next frontal passage, with lingering moisture maintaining scattered showers and storms each day through the weekend. Due to the fact that the trend in rain chances have increased through that time frame, additional increases in rain chances are possible in future forecast packages. Will continue to monitor those trends carefully. As of now, the highest rain chances (50 percent area wide) occur on Sunday with the frontal passage.

Temperatures will be on a general warming trend through early weekend. Afternoon highs will reach low 90s across the interior by mid week, with low 90s expanding across much of ECFL by Saturday. Temperatures cool down slightly on Sunday behind the front, with temperatures becoming near normal from Brevard to Osceola northward, and slightly above normal across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties. Overnight lows will be near to slightly above normal with lows generally in the 60s with low 70s possible by the weekend along the southern Treasure Coast.

MARINE

Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Today-Friday... Poor to hazardous seas today as northeast winds increase to 15-20 KT behind a cold front. As a result of the winds, seas will build to 5-8ft, mainly in the offshore waters this afternoon. A Small Craft is in effect from 5PM in the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard, expanding to the offshore waters of the Treasure Coast at 8 PM. Small craft should exercise caution in the nearshore waters of Volusia and Brevard through the overnight. Seas begin to gradually decrease on Tuesday, with seas subsiding to 4-6 ft on Tuesday, 3-5ft on Wednesday, and 2-4ft on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the local waters. North to northeast winds on Tuesday will shift south to southeast on Wednesday, and westerly on Thursday as another front approaches and pushes through the local waters, with onshore flow resuming on Friday. Speeds will generally be around 10 KT. Isolated showers and storms are forecast across the local waters this afternoon and evening with isolated to scattered showers possible on Thursday, but mainly north of Cape Canaveral as the next front moves through. Mostly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Moderate onshore flow has produced some showers today, which are moving toward the south-southwest. This activity should dissipate around or before sunset. NE winds gusting up to 25 KT this afternoon, diminishing overnight and remaining less than 15 KT on Tuesday. Skies remain mainly VFR, though some ocnl MVFR CIGs have been occurring especially near showers.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 66 82 64 88 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 67 87 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 70 82 69 85 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 68 82 67 86 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 65 88 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 65 87 65 91 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 67 87 67 91 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 67 83 66 86 / 10 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ575.