textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

- Very cold conditions once again tonight into Monday morning. A Freeze Warning and a rare Extreme Cold Warning are in effect for all of east central Florida from 7 PM tonight until 10 AM Monday morning. Dangerous wind chill values of 14 to 20 degrees and a hard freeze with low temperatures in the 20s are forecast Monday morning.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger into early next week.

- A High Risk for rip currents and rough surf exists at area beaches and will continue through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Today-Monday... A strong nor'easter off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to lift northward through the day, eventually reaching Nova Scotia tonight into Monday. High pressure off the TX/LA coast will steadily shift eastward, building over the Florida peninsula through Monday. Locally, west-northwest winds will gradually decrease through the day while remaining breezy, with speeds at 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Winds will diminish further into tonight while turning more northwest, with speeds 5-10 mph (with highest speeds along the coast) before winds increase slightly on Monday with speeds of 5-15 mph. Dry conditions will continue through early next week, with forecast PW values around 0.1-0.2" today and Monday, leading to no mentionable rain chances through early week.

Temperatures will remain much colder than normal, despite the sunny skies. Afternoon highs will range from mid 40s across the north to upper 40s to low 50s across the south today, before warming slightly to mid to upper 50s on Monday. Another very cold night is in store for east central Florida tonight, with damaging hard freeze conditions forecast once again as lows fall into the 20s. Very cold wind chills as low as 14 to 20 degrees are forecast tonight into Monday morning. A Freeze Warning for the hard freeze conditions and an Extreme Cold Warning for the dangerously low wind chills remains in place for all of east central Florida tonight from 7 PM through 10 AM Monday morning. People and pets with inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. Temperatures are forecast to reach freezing once again Monday night into Tuesday morning for many locations, as lows fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. Areas to widespread frost will be possible tonight into Monday morning for areas that do not reach freezing, as well as Monday night into Tuesday morning given the more favorable conditions of lighter winds and clear skies both nights. A Freeze Watch/Warning will likely be needed for Monday night into Tuesday morning for portions if not all of east central Florida.

Tuesday-Saturday... High pressure over the Florida peninsula on Tuesday will shift eastward and offshore into the Atlantic midweek, with the ridge axis remaining across the local area. A series of cold fronts look to push through late week and over the weekend. The first cold front is progged to slide through Wednesday night into Thursday morning with high pressure building in behind the frontal passage. The next front will then push through Saturday. A lot of uncertainty remains with these frontal passages, as global models continue to have considerable differences with the evolution. However, these frontal passages are not forecast to have the same potency as the one that went through yesterday. Rain chances return along and ahead of the next front on Wednesday night, with low to medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain. Lingering showers (rain chances 20-30 percent) through Thursday. Otherwise dry conditions are forecast. Lightning storms are not forecast at this time.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through the forecast period, despite the warming trend through mid week. Wednesday is forecast to be the closest day to near normal temperatures before decreasing once again on Thursday with the frontal passage (but will remain above record cold)and Friday. Afternoon highs will be in the low 70s on Wednesday before cooling to low to mid 60s on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures slowly increase on Saturday, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70. Lows should remain above freezing through the period, with temperatures slowly increasing into midweek before dropping slightly on Thursday with the front. Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s (except mid 40s to low 50s across the southern Treasure Coast) on Tuesday night, and then mid to upper 40s to low 50s on Wednesday night before dropping back down on Thursday night to low to mid 30s across the interior, and mid to upper 30s across the coast. Overnight lows will then briefly increase to low to mid 40s on Friday night, before generally dropping to upper 30s to low 40s across the north and interior, and mid 40s to low 50s across the coast from Cape Canaveral southward on Saturday night. Patchy to areas of frost will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly across the interior.

MARINE

Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Today-Tonight... Hazardous boating conditions continue this afternoon and through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the central Florida Atlantic waters through at least Monday. Northwest winds of 15-25 knots this afternoon are forecast to continue through tonight as the strong low pressure shifts farther north-northeast. Seas 7-12 ft in the offshore waters and 6-10 ft in the nearshore waters this afternoon will slowly subside to 5-7ft in the nearshore and 7-10 ft in the offshore waters tonight. A few isolated showers will be possible in the far offshore waters this afternoon, becoming dry overnight.

Monday-Thursday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions Monday will gradually improve through Tuesday as high pressure builds over Florida behind the departing low. Another cold front will then approach the waters Wednesday night and through the waters Thursday, with boating conditions once again becoming poor to hazardous. Lingering seas of 5-10 ft on Monday will subside to 3-6 ft by Tuesday afternoon, and 2-5 ft by Wednesday afternoon. Seas begin to build Wednesday night into Thursday, with seas up to 8 ft by Thursday afternoon. Northwest winds through Tuesday will shift south to southwest on Wednesday ahead of the next frontal boundary, and west to northwest on Thursday behind the front. Wind speeds of 20-25 KT on Monday will diminish to 10-15 KT by Tuesday morning. Winds briefly decrease to around 10 KT Tuesday afternoon before increasing to 10-15 KT Wednesday, and 15-20 KT Thursday. Additional Small Craft Advisory and small craft exercise caution headlines will likely be needed through early week, and again late week. Rain chances return Wednesday night (rain chances 30-70 percent) ahead of the front, with lingering showers (rain chances 20-60 percent) Thursday and Thursday night. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 620 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

WNW winds persist through the forecast period around 10 knots. Gusts to 20 knots will be possible from TIX southward along the coast after 14Z. Dry with VFR conditions prevailing through the period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 620 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Monday, February 2nd: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb 32 1980 50 51 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 2-Feb 29 1980 50 48 1980 71 Sanford (SFB) 2-Feb 33 1980 51 49 1980 72 Orlando (MCO) 2-Feb 32 1980 51 54 1951 73 Melbourne (MLB) 2-Feb 33 1980 52 55 1994 73 Vero Beach (VRB) 2-Feb 34 1980 53 55 1980 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 2-Feb 34 1980 52 57 1994 74

All Time February Records: RECORD RECORD LOWS COOL-HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 24 02/18/1958 43 02/09/1947 Leesburg (LEE) 23 02/26/1967 42 02/05/1996 Sanford (SFB) 25 02/18/1958 38 02/03/1951 Orlando (MCO) 19 02/07/1895 39 02/08/1895 Melbourne (MLB) 27 02/26/1967 43 02/09/1947 Vero Beach (VRB) 28 02/24/1989 46 02/09/1947 Fort Pierce (FPR) 25 02/05/1996 43 02/04/1917

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 26 55 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 29 55 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 26 56 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 26 57 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 26 55 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 27 55 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 29 55 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 25 57 31 66 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647- 747.

Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058- 141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.