textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Scattered showers and lightning storms, again, this afternoon and early evening capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours which may lead to localized flooding due to slow movement of cells. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.

- Moisture increases early next week as a weak surface boundary approaches. Rain and storm chances increase through at least Wednesday as a result.

- Hot and muggy conditions persist areawide with peak heat indices 100-107F each afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk are forecast each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Current-Tonight...Mid-level ridging present across the Deep South to include the FL peninsula. At the surface, weak high pressure ridging continues across the central FL peninsula. Light/variable winds will transition onshore along the coast this afternoon as the ECSB develops and pushes well inland with late day/early evening boundary collisions across the interior. ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection may develop along the ECSB by early afternoon with both coverage and intensity increasing into the interior thru late day/evening. Primary storm impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, locally gusty winds of 35-50 mph, and torrential downpours. Due to the slow movement of cells, minor/nuisance flooding will be one of the biggest storm concerns. Quick 2-3" amounts may occur with a few storms late today and will be handled with Flood Advisories as necessary.

Conditions continue hot and humid with L90s along the coast and M90s inland (potentially ISOLD U90s). Peak heat indices continue 102- 107F. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk expected. If you are planning to spend time outdoors, take plenty of breaks in the shade or A/C and stay well-hydrated to avoid heat-related fatigue/illness. Never leave pets or children in vehicles unattended! Warm & humid at night with lows in the M-U70s.

Mon-Sat...Strong mid-level high pressure gradually lifts from the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys into the Ohio Valley/Appalachia thru mid-week, finally weakening late week into the weekend across the Atlc Seaboard. A weak frontal boundary is forecast to slide southward across the FL peninsula early-mid week. Moistening occurs early in the period in association with the boundary. Still some uncertainty with medium range models. The flow becomes onshore behind the boundary as deeper moisture again surges across ECFL. The daily sea breeze regime is in full gear with continued weak/erratic storm steering forecast. As such, SCT-NMRS mainly diurnal convective chances for much of the period (highest interior). Will monitor PoP numbers, but warming in the mid-levels and onshore flow (aloft) would tend toward lower overall PoPs as the NBM may be too high esp mid to late week. Primary storm impacts continue to be lightning strikes, locally gusty winds 35-50 mph, and heavy downpours potentially leading to minor flooding concerns.

Hot and humid conditions will persist through next week, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. These temperatures combined with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-107F, and widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk continuing. Mon will be the hottest day and may need to monitor for a Heat Advisory. Warm and muggy conditions continue at night, with mins in the L-U70s.

MARINE

Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Thru Thu...Generally favorable boating conditions will continue into next week as light/variable flow turns onshore each afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. With a weak pressure gradient in place, winds generally 7-12 kts or less with seas 2-3 ft (up to 4 ft well offshore) through mid next week. Late night and early morning showers and isolated lightning storms will transition inland during the afternoon and early evening hours, though some pushback of evening storms could occur early next week as storm motion remains slow/erratic. Moisture increases as a surface boundary approaches Mon-Wed, so rain chances increase, generally north of the Cape. Winds/seas locally higher invof storms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Light and variable winds continue through 17Z, with the development and push inland of the east coast sea breeze causing winds to become more southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots. VCTS chances increase near the coastal terminals after 17Z and across the interior terminals after 19Z. PROB30s remain in the forecast between 19-23Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Confidence in coverage has decreased slightly, but opted to keep the PROB30s in for now. Shower and storm activity is forecast to diminish after 22Z along the coast and after 00Z across the interior. Winds become light and variable once again overnight, continuing through Monday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 77 95 77 / 20 10 30 30 MCO 95 78 96 78 / 40 20 50 30 MLB 90 78 92 78 / 20 10 40 10 VRB 91 77 93 77 / 30 10 20 10 LEE 95 79 96 79 / 40 20 40 40 SFB 95 78 97 78 / 40 10 40 30 ORL 94 79 96 79 / 40 20 40 30 FPR 91 75 93 76 / 40 10 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.