textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Patchy fog developing early this morning, particularly over the interior where it may become locally dense at times.

- Low chances for showers continue today. By Tuesday, a few lightning storms are possible as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions are then forecast mid to late week behind the front.

- Boating conditions will deteriorate tonight into Tuesday ahead of the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Current-Tonight...Primary concern for today is whether any patchy fog, locally dense at times, develops early this morning - primarily across the interior. A weak front will settle across the Deep South to include north FL, where it will become quasi- stationary. Light onshore (NE/ENE) flow 5-10 mph continues through the day. Low pressure will develop across the northwest Gulf during the day and begin to move northeastward tonight. This will act to push a cold front into the FL Panhandle by Tue morning. PWATs tonight will pool to 1.60-1.70 inches areawide ahead the approaching boundary. Onshore low-level flow may be enough to occasionally allow for a few showers to push onto the coast this morning, especially Treasure Coast with some of this activity possibly moving into the interior this afternoon. Chances are relatively low at ISOLD to WDLY SCT (20-30pct) and suspect most areas will remain dry.

925 mb winds become southerly later tonight increasing to 20-25 kts by midnight, then 25-30 kts by sunrise Tue morning. Surface winds will be light ESE/SE this evening, continuing to veer more southerly ahead of daybreak increasing to around 10 mph.

Warm maxes (above climo) today in the U70s to L80s. Overnight lows continue mild and in the M-U60s areawide.

Tue-Tue Night...Low pressure continues to race off northeastward up the Atlc Seaboard, thus pushing the aforementioned cold frontal boundary into/thru central FL during the evening/overnight period. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated lightning storms in play will increase in coverage/intensity during the day; initially across the I-4 corridor during the morning and afternoon - points further south mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Primary storm impacts will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty to locally strong winds, and brief downpours. Instability remains only marginal. Activity will be moving SW to NE at a decent clip of 30 to 40 mph. Convection shifts offshore during the evening/overnight. As the pressure gradient increases early in the period, even outside of gusty showers or storms, we will see breezy SW/WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Highs several degrees above normal in the L-M80s (pre-frontal) on this day. Behind the front overnight lows will sink into the L-M50s north/west of I-4 with near 60F to L60s southward. Barrier islands likely to realize M60s for mins.

Wed-Sun...Mid-level high pressure remains flattened across the FL Straits and Bahamas thru the extended resulting in nearly zonal flow across the FL peninsula for much of this period. At the surface, high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. thru mid- late week, with the next low pressure system developing across the northern Gulf and dragging our next cold front through the area possibly Sat night (ECMWF) or if the GFS has its way - stalling north of central FL until Sun/Sun night before pushing it through. For the moment we keep conditions dry Wed-Fri, with the NBM trying to moisten us up enough to add PoPs back into the forecast during the day on Sat and keeping a small PoP in the forecast thru Sun night. Uncertainty remains with medium range models, but do believe highest PoP chances will surround the next front's approach/passage sometime this next weekend.

Closer to seasonal highs on Wed (post-frontal) with maxes in the L70s across I-4, with M-U70s southward. A warming trend begins slowly on Thu with highs again in the M-U70s, except L70s for coastal Volusia with the developing onshore flow. U70s to L80s prevail Fri-Sat (perhaps a few M80s south of Orlando on Sat), and depending on the next front's passage will see maxes shunted by a few to several degrees as early as Sun and/or Mon. For mins, a chilly night Wed night/Thu morning in the U40s to around 50F N/W of I-4 with L-M50s most everywhere else, except U50s and a few L60s for coastal south Brevard and E of I-95 along the Treasure Coast. For Thu overnight, 50s and L60s (coast), and generally 60s areawide Fri/Sat nights, and potentially 50s for Sun/Mon nights.

MARINE

Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today-Tonight...Seas remain near 5-6 ft at buoy 41009 and it will be a judgement call if Cautionary Statements are extended offshore with early morning coastal waters forecast issuance. NE-ENE winds developing today around 10 kts. With approach of the next weather system and strengthening wind field, we will see winds begin to veer ESE/SE this evening and overnight becoming southerly by daybreak Tue morning. Speeds tonight will increase 10-15 kts very near shore and 15-20 kts over the open Atlc, but will increase further well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet to 18-23 kts by daybreak Tue. As such, we should initiate Cautionary Statements for increasing winds this evening offshore, with a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) to go into effect at 09Z/4AM Tue morning for offshore marine legs north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 3-5 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore (perhaps up to 6 ft still early this morning). After midnight and toward daybreak Tue morning, seas respond to the increasing winds by building 5-6 ft (again) offshore Vero Beach northward. Isolated to scattered showers forecast and cannot rule out isolated lightning storms.

Tue-Fri...For now the SCA goes thru 03Z/10PM Tue evening offshore north of Sebastian Inlet. SSW/SW winds around 20-25 kts for the Advisory and 15/15-20 kts elsewhere gradually relax later Tue afternoon/evening, as winds continue to veer WSW by early evening Tue, then NWRLY (post-frontal) Tue night continuing into Wed-Wed night as the pgrad continues to relax and winds diminish further. Direction becomes more northerly early on Thu, but quickly veers NE/E during the day on Thu-Thu night, finally SE/S into Fri. Seas come down 3-5 ft Tue night, becoming 3-4 ft by Wed afternoon thru Fri, but may see some 5 ft seas well offshore Volusia on Thu.

Pre-frontal on Tue, we will see highest precip chances with offshore moving showers/isolated lightning storms, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. A few of these storms have the potential to be gusty with occasional lightning strikes and torrential downpours the other threats. This continues into early evening, then gradually winds down across the Gulf Stream overnight as the cold front weakens and pushes through. Wed-Fri, presently, remain mostly dry.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 625 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions early this morning with light and variable winds. Winds pick up out of the ENE after 15Z at 5 to 10 knots. VCSH possible from MLB southward. Wind are then forecast to veer to out of the SE overnight, becoming SW tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain and storm chances increase tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 66 81 56 / 10 10 40 0 MCO 80 67 81 60 / 20 10 50 0 MLB 78 67 82 62 / 20 10 30 0 VRB 80 66 84 62 / 20 10 30 0 LEE 79 65 79 55 / 10 20 60 0 SFB 79 66 81 58 / 10 10 50 0 ORL 79 66 81 59 / 20 10 50 0 FPR 80 66 84 62 / 20 10 40 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570- 572.