textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Above normal temperatures persist through Thursday with values approaching record highs across the interior.

- Rain and storm chances increase on Thursday with the approach of a cold front with medium to high rain chances persisting through late week and into this weekend.

- Deteriorating beach and boating conditions forecast late this week as increasing winds cause seas to gradually build.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Current-Wednesday...Broad high pressure will shift eastward across the western Atlantic through tonight and into Wednesday, with the ridge axis remaining draped across the Florida peninsula. As a result of the axis placement, southeasterly winds are forecast across east central Florida, becoming more easterly each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Wind speeds around 10 mph are anticipated, though enhancements from the sea breeze could lead to winds increasing to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph possible at times, especially along the coast. Mostly dry conditions are forecast to persist through mid-week, though there remains a low (20%) chance of rain and storms across the interior late this afternoon into the evening hours where the sea breeze collision is anticipated to occur. While drier air aloft will likely suppress storm development, added in a low chance for thunder based on short range guidance indicating some support for lightning. Any activity that manages to develop is anticipated to dissipate late this evening, with dry conditions prevailing through the overnight hours. Tonight, winds become lighter with skies remaining mostly clear, leading to a chance for some patchy fog development, especially from the greater Orlando region and areas southward. Any fog that forms will dissipate near to shortly after sunrise. Wednesday, conditions are forecast to remain mostly dry but there is some CAM support for isolated showers along the sea breeze collision late in the afternoon. Confidence was too low to include within the forecast at this time, so will continue to monitor.

Warm, above-normal temperatures will persist across east central Florida as a result of the prevailing high pressure. Afternoon highs today remain on track to reach the mid 80s along the coast and the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. A repeat is anticipated for Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s areawide. Some locations may approach their record high temperatures, particularly across the interior. Lows are forecast to remain in the low to mid 60s.

Thursday-Tuesday (previous)...Low pressure moving across northern New England drags a cold front through the Southeast on Thursday, before moving through the local area Thursday night. Rain chances increase from north to south Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with PoPs up to 40-70%. Scattered lightning storms will also be possible, with the main threats of gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy downpours. Southwest flow near 10-15 mph in the afternoon will once again produce well above normal temperatures, with even coastal areas reaching the upper 80s due to a pinned sea breeze.

High pressure redevelops over the western Atlantic into the weekend and early next week, however, a series of passing shortwaves aloft and ample moisture from the weakening frontal boundary will maintain rain chances near 40-70% Friday and Saturday. PoPs increase Sunday into Monday (70-80%), as south and southwesterly flow advects PWATs near 1.6" into the peninsula ahead of yet another front Monday night. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible. High coverage of clouds and showers will support nearer to normal highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with some spots across the interior reaching the mid 80s. Lows remain in the 60s. Drier air, lower rain chances, and below normal temperatures (highs upper 60s/lower 70s, lows 50s) are forecast Tuesday behind the next front.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

High pressure will remain situated across the western Atlantic waters through mid-week, shifting farther offshore as a cold front approaches the area on Thursday. The front will move across the waters Thursday night, weakening late this week with the next frontal passage forecast to occur on Monday. Rain and storm chances steadily increase towards late week, generally ranging from 40-70% Thursday through the remainder of the forecast period. Scattered to numerous storms will be possible, with gusty winds, small hail, and lightning strikes remaining the primary concerns.

South to southeasterly winds around 10 knots are forecast to persist across the local waters through at least Wednesday, becoming more south-southwesterly on Thursday ahead of the front. Behind the front, winds veer to out of the north-northeast, increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Seas respond by rapidly building starting Thursday night, reaching 6 to 9 feet, especially across the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. By Friday night, conditions subside below advisory thresholds, with onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 3 to 6 feet. Boating conditions continue to improve through the weekend, with winds remaining around 10 to 15 knots and seas staying between 3 to 5 feet.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 755 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Sea breeze collision will occur over Lake county btwn 00Z-01Z and will at least produce a band of clouds sct-bkn 070-100 and possibly a shower or two; hence, the VCSH for LEE thru 03Z. Not a strong signal for fog tonight but will maintain TEMPO MVFR conds at the more fog-prone sites VRB and FPR. Light south wind overnight once the sea breeze circulation diminishes, increasing 7-9 knots Wed morning. The sea breeze will redevelop and produce an E/SE wind shift at coastal terminals by 17Z with 10-14 knots and occasionally higher gusts near 18 knots.

CLIMATE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate sites:

Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Monthly March DAB 86 2023 89 1967 90 1935 92 3/28/1994* LEE 87 1974 88 2015 88 2001 92 3/26/2023* SFB 90 1974 88 1974 90 2001 94 3/20/2003 MCO 90 1918 91 1918 89 2001 97 3/30/1907 MLB 90 1964 89 1962 90 1962 93 3/28/1994 VRB 89 2022 88 1986 88 2023 93 3/31/2020* FPR 90 2022 90 1997 89 1948 93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 65 87 65 86 / 10 0 0 60 MCO 67 90 67 88 / 20 0 0 50 MLB 66 84 66 86 / 10 0 0 40 VRB 65 84 65 87 / 0 0 0 30 LEE 67 90 66 85 / 20 0 10 60 SFB 67 90 67 88 / 20 0 0 50 ORL 67 90 68 87 / 20 0 0 50 FPR 64 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.