textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Scattered to numerous storms are expected each afternoon and evening today and Friday across east central Florida, with 50-70% chance of rain. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall, which may cause localized minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

- Storms will begin to focus more over the interior from this weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing a diffuse Atlantic sea breeze more quickly inland.

- Seasonably hot and humid. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 100 to 106 each day. When planning to be outdoors, stay well hydrated and consider taking frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Today-Friday...Little change is forecast as low level Atlantic ridge axis remains nearly stationary across south central FL. And aloft, we remain sandwiched between a pair of mid level highs with weak troughing over the NE Gulf/FL panhandle. Light sfc winds in vicinity of the ridge axis will allow the Atlc sea breeze to form and push inland sparking scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms both aftns and evenings. A S/SW steering flow will bring some of the storms back across the coast esp this evening. Sufficient moisture, strong heating and boundary collisions will produce rain chances of 50-70%. Primary threats will continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 55 mph and heavy rain. Localized amounts around 3 inches will be possible, causing temporary flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. If threatening weather approaches, seek shelter in an enclosed building or automobile. Picnic shelters and screened porches may keep you dry but offer no protection from the dangers of lightning.

Prior to storms, temperatures will be seasonably hot and humid in the low to mid 90s with heat indices 100-106.

Sat-Wed...The weak troughing over the NE Gulf will begin to fill this weekend allowing the ridge aloft over the SW Atlc to nose in over FL. Gradually, the 2 upper ridges will merge over the SE U.S. and raise heights over FL next week. This will allow the low level ridge axis to lift north of our area resulting in onshore flow becoming dominant in the low and mid levels. Scattered storms are forecast each day pushing quickly inland with the Atlc sea breeze, eventually colliding with the Gulf breeze near Orlando or points west late in the day. Immediate coastal communities will see lower rain chances and also warmer overnight lows due to the persistent onshore flow, likely holding in the upper 70s/lower 80s there. Expect seasonably hot and humid daytime conditions to persist as we welcome September.

MARINE

Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Generally favorable wind/wave conditions expected. High pressure ridge axis will remain nearly stationary across the southern (Treasure coast) waters through Friday. Light winds continue with onshore (SE) winds around 10 knots developing and enhanced by the sea breeze circulation near the coast each afternoon. Isolated to scattered offshore-moving storms will be capable of strong wind gusts today and Friday over the intracoastal and nearshore Atlc. The ridge axis is forecast to lift north of the waters this weekend with a more persistent onshore flow. Seas 1-2ft through Friday then 2-3ft this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 637 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms. Light and variable winds will increase from the southwest at 4-8kts mainly after 14Z before backing ESE with the east coast sea breeze in the afternoon/evening. VCTS is forecast after 17Z-19Z with TEMPO TSRA groups between 19Z-24Z. The potential exists for a few strong storms across ECFL THU.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 74 90 74 / 60 20 70 30 MCO 93 75 93 76 / 60 30 70 20 MLB 91 75 91 76 / 60 30 50 20 VRB 91 74 91 75 / 50 20 40 20 LEE 91 75 91 75 / 50 20 70 30 SFB 92 75 92 75 / 60 20 70 20 ORL 92 75 92 76 / 60 30 70 20 FPR 91 74 91 75 / 50 20 50 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.