textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot and humid conditions will persist with peak heat indices climbing to 102-107 this holiday weekend resulting in a Moderate to Major HeatRisk.

- A High Risk for life threatening rip currents exists at area beaches from Cape Canaveral northward with a Moderate Risk continuing southward. Entering the surf is discouraged where there is a High Risk of rip currents. Otherwise, heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs!

- Increased moisture, strong daytime heating, and boundary collisions will result in scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms each day into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Today-Tonight(Independence Day)... Upper level ridge aloft across Florida and the southern US will remain in place today as a weak trough develops over the Midwest late today. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic will persist with the axis extending over the Florida peninsula. Locally, this will result in south to southwest winds to continue, with the east coast sea breeze forming in the afternoon but it will not make it as far inland as it did yesterday. The west coast sea breeze will push inland, with the sea breeze collision forecast to occur across the eastern side of the peninsula. Isolated to scattered showers and storms have formed along the east coast sea breeze, mainly across the southern Treasure coast and the Volusia coast, as well as across the west coast sea breeze. Additional showers and storms are forecast to form along the sea breezes, staying in the vicinity of I-95 for the east coast sea breeze, and along the west coast sea breeze as it continues to push inland across the state to the eastern side of the peninsula. There is a medium and high (50-70 percent) chance of showers and storms areawide today, mainly between 4pm-7pm, with the highest coverage along the sea breeze collision later this afternoon/early evening. Coverage will then gradually diminish into the evening hours. The environment supports convection with the 15Z XMR sounding showing plenty of instability (MUCAPE around 4300J/kg), a lifted index of - 8, and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE a little over 500 J/kg). The main storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds of 40-55mph, and heavy rainfall with the potential for minor/ nuisance flooding of urban or low lying areas due to storms moving slow or stationary. Be sure to practice lightning safety during any outdoor holiday festivities. When thunder roars, go indoors!

A hot and humid day for your holiday festivities. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices between 102-107F. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk exists today with a Major HeatRisk extending across the Orlando metro and through portions of the I-95 corridor. A High Risk of rip currents exists at Volusia and northern Brevard beaches, north of Cape Canaveral. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. A Moderate Risk continues southward including southern Brevard and Treasure Coast beaches. Never swim alone and always heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs!

Sunday-Tuesday... An upper level trough across the Midwest on Sunday will steadily move eastward towards the eastern Coast through Tuesday, moving offshore Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a broad, weak low pressure will develop near the base of the trough on Sunday before moving towards the eastern US through Tuesday, with an associated weak front sagging into the southeast US through early next week. A surface ridge across the western Atlantic will remain in place with the axis extending over the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf. This will help keep the trough and surface boundary north of the area. Locally, south to southwest winds will persist through the period, which will keep the deep moisture in place, with forecast soundings supporting that with PW values 2+". The deeper moisture will allow the higher rain chances to continue each afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong. The environment supports this with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1400-2000J/kg), and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 400- 700 J/kg). And despite the relatively warmer temperatures aloft (-7 to -6C at 500 mb), occasional shortwave energy could also aid in storms becoming stronger. Main storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds of 40-55mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Due to the lighter flow through the column, storms will be slow moving or even stationary, which increases the potential for localized flooding.

Hot and humid conditions continue through the period, with a gradual warming trend forecast (increasing a degree or two each day). Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s each day. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 102-107F Sunday and Monday, and may be near Heat Advisory criteria across portions of the area Tuesday. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect those without adequate cooling and hydration.

Wednesday-Friday... An upper level trough over the NE US will move eastward and push offshore on Wednesday, with a weaker shortwave pushing into the eastern US and then offshore by late week. At the surface, an area of low pressure just off the NE coast will push north and eastward on Wednesday,remaining offshore. At the same time, a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will stay in place, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula and extending into the Gulf. Locally, this will result in the south to southwest flow persisting. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast each day, with models indicating a swath of drier air infiltrating in the mid levels, which may reduce overall rain chances mid to late week. Slightly above normal temperatures continue, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s along the coast and mid 90s across the interior.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Today-Wednesay... Generally favorable boating conditions through the period. South to southwest flow will persist through at least early next week, shifting onshore (east to southeast) each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Wind remaining 10 KT or less during the daytime hours before increasing to 10-15 KT each evening and overnight. Seas mostly 1-2 ft, but occasionally build to 3ft far offshore. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each morning with scattered to numerous offshore moving storms forecast each afternoon and evening through at least early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Mainly VFR at ECFL terminal through Sunday morning. TS linger INVOF KTIX and KSUA, as well as electrified -SHRA from near KSFB- KDAB, which could persist through around 02Z before dissipating or moving offshore. Otherwise quiet conditions. Winds become light southerly/VRB overnight, picking back up to 5-10 kts from SW Sunday, slowing development of the east coast sea breeze to between 18Z-21Z, earlier to the south. Winds shift SE-SSE around 10 kts behind the boundary, which is forecast to not make it much farther inland than I-95 before a collision with a quick moving west coast sea breeze after 20Z. Inland, SH could develop as early as 15Z and TS shortly after around 17Z. East coast follows a couple hours slower. Highest chances for TS INVOF of the coastal terminals along the sea breeze collision.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 92 76 92 / 20 60 30 70 MCO 77 92 76 93 / 30 60 40 70 MLB 77 90 77 91 / 30 70 30 70 VRB 75 91 76 91 / 30 70 20 70 LEE 77 92 77 93 / 30 60 20 60 SFB 77 93 77 94 / 30 70 30 70 ORL 77 92 77 93 / 30 70 30 70 FPR 75 90 75 91 / 30 70 20 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.