textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Hot temperatures mid-week into the first half of the weekend (near record), especially over the interior.

- Mostly dry conditions will persist through the work-week, with just isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms mainly north of Orlando Thursday/Friday afternoons.

- A high risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at area beaches today. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Early This Morning... Monitoring for patchy fog this morning as a surface ridge axis begins to settle southward. Deterministic solutions and ensemble probabilities from the 00Z cycle have mostly hinted at the potential for patchy fog to develop west of I-95. However, more recent trends of hourly High-Res outputs are starting to trim back fog coverage, losing run-to-run consistency and decreasing forecast confidence if fog will develop. Should locally dense fog develop, visibility reductions to 1 mile or less will be possible.

Today-Friday... A surface ridge axis slides southward across the area today becoming surpressed over the Straits of Florida Thursday as a cold front drops into north Florida. The front struggles to near portions of central Florida before lifting back northward Friday as low pressure gradually organizes across portions of the northern Gulf. Mostly dry through the period with only low rain chances for areas north of Orlando Thursday (20-30%) and Friday (20%). The main headline through mid to late week will be a period of increasingly hot temperatures. Offshore flow and broad ridging at 850mb will contribute to above normal temperatures reaching the low 90s across much of the interior each afternoon, spreading the upper 80s and low 90s along the coast. A Minor to Moderate HeatRisk will gradually build each day, affecting those who are sensitive to heat and those without adequate cooling and hydration. At area beaches, a high risk of rip currents exists today. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Saturday-Tuesday... Above normal temperatures continue Saturday as west-southwest flow strengthens 15-20 mph ahead of the next cold front. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through much of Saturday before isolated to scattered rain chances (20-40%) build southward through the Orlando Metro late in the afternoon. Rain chances become more areawide (70-80%) into Sunday as the front drops south. Will watch for how any storm threat may evolve with the best signal for instability in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee after sunrise Sunday. However, cannot rule out a mention of any storms during the nighttime period Saturday into early Sunday as low level shear profiles modestly increase. May also need to watch for heavy rainfall across parts of the area into Sunday as some ensemble solutions may suggest an area of low pressure developing along the front in the Gulf before moving across parts of Florida. However, spread in this solution is too large to discuss confidence or specifics at this time. Low rain chances may persist Monday or Tuesday as the front continues to push through south Florida.

Highs widely in the low to mid 90s Saturday become widely variable north to south on Sunday as cloud cover and rain chances increase and the front moves across the area. Current forecast trends keep highs in the low to mid 70s from Cape Canaveral and Orlando northward on Sunday spreading the low 80s to mid 80s further south through the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee. Below normal temperatures more widely spread east central Florida Monday, mostly ranging the low 80s, before models suggest another warming trend Tuesday onward.

MARINE

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

High pressure slides southward across the local waters today, stalling near the Straits of Florida Thursday into Friday. This will lead to favorable boating conditions through Friday with seas subsiding 3-4 ft. Light southerly flow develops over the waters today, veering offshore into tonight. Offshore flow should then generally prevail into the weekend, although onshore shifts can be expected as the sea breeze develops through Friday.

Poor boating conditions develop Saturday as southwest winds increase 15-20 kts ahead of the next cold front. Seas build 5-6 ft in the Gulf Stream early Sunday as winds veer north-northeast behind the front. Scattered showers in storms spread southward across the waters Saturday afternoon and evening with high coverage forecast throughout the day Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 145 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A small chance for patchy fog/stratus around sunrise at some terminals (MCO/SFB) as well as the more fog-prone terminals FPR/VRB. Probabilities for IFR conditions are up to 25% at SFB/MCO but duration if any will be brief. Have maintained TEMPO MVFR VIS from 10-13Z for the inland TAF sites.

Winds increase slightly out of the S/SW 6-8 knots after sunrise. The sea breeze will develop at coastal terminals, first along the treasure coast (SUA-VRB) and a little later at DAB. Winds behind the sea breeze will be E to SE around 10 knots in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Hot temperatures and drought conditions will lead to fire sensitivities through late week. West-southwest winds should pin the east coast sea breeze near the coast each afternoon, and minRH values are forecast to remain sensitive across much of the interior. Efficient surface heating and increasing mixing heights will promote Good to Very good afternoon smoke dispersion through late week, becoming Excellent across portions of the northwest interior. West- southwest winds increase to 15-20 mph on Saturday ahead of the next cold front, resulting in control concerns. The front will bring the next chance for wetting rain across much of east central Florida late Saturday into Sunday, but lightning strikes will be an additional concern for new fire starts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site Apr 29 Apr 30 May 1 May 2 DAB 94 (1968) 92 (1953) 94 (2002) 95 (1953) LEE 94 (2017) 95 (1991) 94 (2017) 95 (1990) SFB 93 (2017) 93 (1971) 95 (2017) 94 (2010) MCO 96 (1906) 95 (1971) 96 (1917) 97 (1906) MLB 91 (1986) 93 (1964) 94 (2002) 95 (2002) VRB 94 (1986) 91 (1975) 96 (1971) 94 (2002) FPR 92 (1923) 97 (1971) 93 (2002) 95 (2002)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 67 87 67 / 10 0 30 10 MCO 91 68 92 69 / 10 0 20 0 MLB 86 68 89 69 / 0 0 10 0 VRB 87 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 91 68 90 68 / 10 0 20 10 SFB 92 67 91 68 / 10 0 20 10 ORL 91 69 91 69 / 10 0 20 0 FPR 88 66 90 66 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.