textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 215 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Locally dense fog development will be possible across east central Florida tonight and again on Sunday night. Visibility reductions of 1 mile or less will be possible.

- A high risk of rip currents is forecast at all local east central Florida beaches this weekend. Entering the surf is not advised.

- A strong cold front is forecast to move southward across the peninsula early next week, bringing below normal temperatures areawide into the New Year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Tonight-Sunday...Surface high pressure is forecast to remain in place across the Florida peninsula tonight into Sunday, keeping rain chances near-zero areawide. Winds remain light with the high centered overhead, veering from out of the west-northwest tonight to more onshore on Sunday. Temperatures continue to remain near to slightly above normal, with lows tonight and Sunday night in the mid 50s to low 60s and highs on Sunday afternoon reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.

Stratus and fog will continue to be a concern across east central Florida thanks to a favorable environment for development. Patchy to areas of locally dense fog are forecast to develop late tonight into early Sunday morning, with the best chances focused across the interior. Some fog and stratus across the local Atlantic waters cannot be ruled out, particularly north of the Cape. Visibility reductions of 1 mile or less will be possible, and drivers who encounter these reductions are encouraged to slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance between vehicles. Any fog and/or stratus that develops is anticipated to diminish after sunrise on Sunday morning. Another night of fog development will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning.

At the beaches, a high risk of rip currents is anticipated to continue tonight and potentially into Sunday. Beachgoers are encouraged to remain vigilant, heed the advice of beach safety officials, and avoid the swimming in the ocean entirely if there is a high risk of rip currents.

Monday-Saturday...By Monday, the surface high is forecast to break down and move offshore as a strong cold front begins its approach, moving southward across the southeastern US and towards the Florida peninsula. Westerly winds increase to 10 mph Monday afternoon out ahead of the front, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low 80s in the afternoon. By Monday night, winds gradually veer to out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph as the front moves southward across the Florida peninsula. Current guidance continues to only favor shower development ahead of and along the front out across the local Atlantic waters, with a 10% chance or less across east central Florida. A sharp temperature gradient will be present Monday night due to the cold front, with lows in the 40s near and north of the I- 4 corridor and in the 50s southward.

The front is forecast to move south of east central Florida by Tuesday morning, with high pressure reestablishing itself across the southeastern US through the remainder of the week and into early next weekend. Dry conditions and mostly clear skies are anticipated to prevail areawide through this time period. Temperatures are forecast to drop significantly behind the cold front, with a cold end to 2025 and a chilly start to 2026 anticipated. Lows are forecast to fall into the 30s across much of east central Florida on Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with wind chill values in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Cold temperatures persist each night from Wednesday through Friday, gradually warming a couple degrees each night, with lows generally ranging from the mid 30s to the low 40s and wind chill values in the 30s to mid 40s. As far as afternoon temperatures go, highs fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, slowly warming into the 60s Thursday and the mid 60s to low 70s Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions persist tonight through Sunday, with seas of 2 to 5 feet and winds remaining below 15 knots. Boating conditions are then forecast to deteriorate into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds increase to 15 to 25 knots across the waters Monday afternoon and into the overnight hours ahead of and behind the cold front, with seas building to 4 to 9 feet late Monday into Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will likely need to be issued due to the poor to hazardous conditions. Rain chances also increase out ahead of and along the front, with isolated to scattered shower activity anticipated Monday night into Tuesday. The cold front sinks south of the waters on Tuesday, with high pressure slowly reestablishing itself across the local Atlantic waters mid to late week. This will lead to lighter winds and diminishing seas late Tuesday, with a return of generally favorable boating conditions Wednesday that will persist through the remainder of the period. Additionally, dry weather returns Wednesday onward.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 606 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

MCO IMPACT: - Medium chance for IFR conditions late tonight - early Sunday.

No significant changes were required to the existing TAFs. Persistence forecast as high pressure allows for weak winds that turn onshore at the coast in the afternoon. Main concern is once again for categorical restrictions due to fog/stratus late tonight and early Sunday. Guidance currently suggests a 40-60% chance for periods of at least IFR conds around Orlando area, Leesburg, and Daytona terminals between 28/08-14Z. LIFR probs only slightly lower, 40-50%. Opted out of LIFR, for now, in the TAFs due to lack of confidence in the available model suite due to consistent over-performance this season.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Fog development continues to be favored across east central Florida tonight and again on Sunday night thanks to light winds, clear skies, and high pressure overhead. Visibility reductions of 1 mile or less will be possible, with any combination of fog and smoke from fires leading to further localized visibility reductions.

A cold front is forecast to move southward across east central Florida Monday night into Tuesday, with a dry and cold air mass sinking southward behind the front. Fire weather concerns increase Tuesday onward as a result, with minimum RH values forecast to fall below 35% most afternoons across a good portion of east central Florida through the remainder of the week. Winds are anticipated to be just on the threshold of critical values on Tuesday at 10 to 15 mph, falling to 10 mph or less Wednesday onward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 59 76 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 60 79 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 58 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 56 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 58 77 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 59 79 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 60 78 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 55 79 56 80 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.