textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue for the next week. Maximum heat index values will reach near Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through the weekend; Additional Heat Advisories are likely for at least portions of east central Florida.

- Below normal rain chances continue into early next week. Drier air aloft due to the Saharan Air Layer will support strong, gusty winds in any lightning storms each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Rest of Today-Saturday...Hot and humid once again across east central Florida this afternoon, with limited shower coverage as of 2 PM and a delayed, weak east coast sea breeze. Widely scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop along the sea breeze as it moves inland through this evening, with PoPs 20-40%. However, this may be a bit overdone given the weak cu field seen on visible satellite imagery. Regardless, most areas will remain dry today, with little relief from scorching heat indices 108-112 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM. Any storms that manage to develop today will be capable of strong wind gusts to 50 mph, with dry air in the mid levels. Convection is forecast to taper off into this evening over the interior, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Rinse and repeat to begin the weekend, as high pressure prevails over the Florida peninsula. Below average coverage of showers and storms continues, with PoPs generally 20-40%. A wave of Saharan Dust is forecast to move into the area through Saturday, increasing the chances for a few strong storms, with wind gusts to around 50 mph. Light offshore flow becomes S/SE along the coast as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Overall, winds remain around 10 mph or less. Low precipitation coverage and a weak sea breeze will continue to allow highs to reach well into the 90s. Meanwhile, humid conditions produce heat indices 108-112 degrees. Additional Heat Advisories are likely through at least Saturday. Don't forget to integrate heat safety into your weekend plans!

Sunday-Thursday...Below normal rainfall chances, well below normal at times, persist into early next week. Surface high pressure builds back towards the peninsula and into the eastern Gulf through the period. Aloft, a strong upper level ridge flattens over the Southeast US. Overall, little change to the pattern for east central Florida. Forecast PoPs peak at 20-30% or less, with dry conditions expected area-wide for at least Monday. Most areas will likely remain dry. Regardless, strong storms will be possible each afternoon, with waves of SAL supporting wind gusts to 50 mph in storms that can survive the overall subsidence. Light offshore flow will continue to oppose the afternoon sea breeze, which remains weak at around 10 mph or less. Highs in the mid-90s will creep towards the upper 90s at times, with humid conditions continuing. Additional Heat Advisories will need to be considered through the foreseeable future.

MARINE

Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Favorable boating conditions are forecast into early next week, as high pressure dominates the local pattern. Light offshore flow backs S/SE near the coast each day with the development of the sea breeze, but remains around 10 kts or less overall. Below normal coverage of showers and storms is forecast, especially Sunday through Tuesday. Although, any storms will be capable of strong wind gusts to near 45 kts, in addition to lightning strikes. Seas 1-3 ft.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 745 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conds forecast outside of convection through the TAF period. Variable winds 5 knots or less tonight. On Fri, Atlc sea breeze will shift winds at coastal terminals out of the East at 8-12 knots btwn 16Z-18Z. Similar to today, scattered SHRA/TSRA should develop inland from the coast sparked by the sea breeze boundary. Storm motion will be toward the southwest. Have inserted VCTS for MCO/SFB in the afternoon. VCTS may be needed for a couple of coastal terminals as convection develops to the west but then moves away.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 94 76 94 / 10 30 10 10 MCO 77 96 77 97 / 20 40 20 20 MLB 77 92 77 92 / 10 20 10 10 VRB 76 92 76 92 / 10 30 10 30 LEE 78 96 78 96 / 20 40 20 20 SFB 77 96 77 96 / 20 30 10 20 ORL 78 96 77 96 / 20 40 20 20 FPR 77 92 76 92 / 10 30 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.