textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Moisture increases across the area from Tuesday onward, resulting in more humid conditions and a return of daily shower and lightning storm chances.

- A High risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Entering the surf is not advised!

- Highs remain seasonably warm through midweek, with a slight warming trend Friday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Tonight-Tuesday...Mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue through tonight. Some of the hi-res guidance shows perhaps a brief shower or two from a sea breeze collision over the interior this evening, or developing over the Treasure Coast waters overnight. However, not much confidence in this, and with the overall dry airmass in place will maintain PoPs of 10% or less. Mid to upper level trough across the eastern U.S. seaboard will begin to pull some moisture northward into the area tomorrow. This will begin a return of daily showers and storms that will continue through the work week. However, rain chances remain on the lower end for Tuesday, only around 20-30%, mainly across areas south of Orlando and northwest of the I-4 corridor. A weak developing onshore flow may then lead to additional isolated to scattered showers moving onshore along the coast into Tuesday night.

Lows tonight will not be quite as cool as this morning, but will still drop into the mid to upper 60s in some areas, with other locations not falling below the 70 degree mark. Highs tomorrow will remain seasonably warm in the mid to upper 80s, with some added humidity forecast as dewpoints will rise to the upper 60s/low 70s. Wednesday-Sunday...Trough aloft breaks down across the area, with mid level ridge gradually building in from over the western Atlantic this week and across Florida into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure builds offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast, with ridge axis remaining north of the area. This will lead to a developing onshore flow that will persist through the weekend. Moisture will continue to increase across the area during this time, with PW values rising from 1.7-2.0" on Wednesday to 2.0-2.2" Thursday and Friday. This will continue to increase coverage of showers and storms each day. East-southeast low level winds that will be breezy at times, will lead to isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and a few storms during the nighttime and morning hours. This activity will then become scattered to numerous (PoPs ranging from 40-70%) along a diffuse east coast sea breeze from late morning into the afternoon hours each day. Warming temps aloft as ridge aloft gradually builds in and deeper moisture in place will keep stronger storm threat limited. However, can't rule out a few stronger storms each day, producing frequent lightning, strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph and locally heavy downpours.

Highs will remain near normal for this time of year in the mid to upper 80s Wed-Thu, with just a slight warming trend into late week and weekend, as highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s as ridge builds in. The added humidity is also forecast to lead to a return to triple digit peak heat index values (100-105F) Friday-Sunday. Strengthening onshore flow will keep conditions overnight warm and muggy, with lows near to above normal in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Tonight-Saturday...Boating conditions remain mostly favorable. High pressure building across the eastern U.S. will shift offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast through midweek, with ridge axis remaining north of the waters through late week and into the weekend. South- southeast winds through this evening become south-southwest overnight, and then back again to the east-southeast tomorrow afternoon behind the inland moving sea breeze. Winds speeds will be relatively light around 5-10 knots or less through tomorrow. From Wednesday onward, winds will remain predominately onshore, increasing from around 10 knots on Wednesday to 10-15 knots through the weekend. Seas range from 2-3 feet through midweek, increasing to 3-4 feet Thursday-Saturday.

Main hazard to boaters will be increasing coverage of showers and storms through the work week. Mostly dry conditions forecast to continue over the waters through tonight, then isolated to scattered showers and storms into Tuesday become scattered to numerous Wednesday onward. Greatest coverage of this activity will be during the overnight and morning hours.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 729 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Light and variable winds overnight, with dry conditions. Light southerly winds will prevail through the morning, before SE winds 10 kts or less develop into the afternoon behind the sea breeze. VFR, but will need to monitor the development of a few to scattered showers near the Treasure Coast in the afternoon. For now, low confidence precludes a mention in the TAF.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage due to tidal effects. River levels are forecast to gradually subside through Minor Flood Stage this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 69 87 71 86 / 10 10 10 40 MCO 70 88 71 87 / 10 10 10 60 MLB 70 87 74 86 / 0 10 20 50 VRB 67 88 72 86 / 0 20 30 60 LEE 70 88 71 88 / 10 20 10 50 SFB 70 88 72 87 / 10 10 10 50 ORL 71 88 72 88 / 10 10 10 50 FPR 68 87 72 86 / 0 30 30 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.