textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Isolated showers and lightning storms are possible along the Treasure Coast this afternoon/evening

- Cold front arrives tonight, bringing gusty northeast winds into Monday and gradually cooler air; short-lived rain chances increase Monday, mainly south of Cape Canaveral

- Beach and boating conditions to deteriorate quickly tonight and remain poor to hazardous through at least the middle of the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Rest of Today...A few showers have managed to develop south of Kissimmee/Melbourne early this afternoon, despite scattered to broken cirrus streaming overhead. So far, no lightning has managed to develop as of around 2:30 PM, capped by the stout dry air above 800mb in the TBW 12Z sounding this morning. However, will need to continue to watch for the threat for a few lightning strikes, as ongoing cells encounter lift along the sea breeze and lake breeze boundaries. While dry air aloft is a limiting factor for storms today, it also provides a conditional strong storm threat. Mesoanalysis indicates DCAPE values near 1100 J/kg over Okeechobee County and the western portions of the Treasure Coast counties. Should a shower or storm be able to overcome the dry air, strong wind gusts 50-55 mph cannot be ruled out. PoPs through the afternoon 20-30% south of Melbourne.

Tonight-Monday...CAMs indicate convection will reach the Treasure Coast into the evening hours, drifting offshore along westerly steering flow tonight. A cold front then moves through east central Florida tonight into Monday. Moisture builds along the coast and across the southern third of the area through the period. This will support at least a low chance for coastal showers overnight into Monday morning. An increase in scattered showers and even a storm is possible Monday afternoon along the Treasure Coast. NBM ProbThunder values remain 30% or less, though instability overall is forecast to be low. PoPs 30-50% for the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County will diminish from north to south into the afternoon.

Breezy to windy conditions are forecast to develop by early Monday morning. Northeasterly winds then look to continue to increase into the afternoon, with speeds 15-20 mph and gusts 20-25 mph. A few gusts to 30 mph will be possible, especially along the coast. Onshore flow will keep temperatures nearer to normal, in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but also lead to hazardous beach and boating conditions.

Tuesday-Saturday...Much drier air filters into the local area Tuesday, as PWATs fall to as low as 0.5-0.6". High pressure builds over the Atlantic just off of the Southeast US coast mid to late week, with modest moisture return (PWATs peaking at 1.1-1.2") keeping rain chances out of the forecast through the work week. Low (20%) chances for showers return for the weekend, though most areas will remain dry Tuesday through Sunday. Breezy ENE flow lingers on Tuesday, especially along the coast, with winds 10-15 mph and gusts near 20 mph. The building ridge will then lead to a return of more typical 10 mph or less breezes in the afternoons from the E/ESE.

Near normal high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s continue Tuesday and Wednesday, due to breezy winds and increased cloud cover, respectively. Later in the period, above normal high temperatures return, with mid to upper 80s forecast once again by the weekend. While onshore flow will keep coastal areas in the 60s, drier air will allow interior locations to dip into the mid to upper 50s through Friday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through this afternoon, with the exception of a few to scattered offshore-moving showers and storms along the Treasure Coast. Then, winds will begin to deteriorate this evening, ahead of a cold front passage tonight. Northeasterly winds increase to 20-25 kts from north to south through the overnight and early morning hours. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect and expand with the wind. Gusts near 30 kts are forecast. Seas respond, building from 2-3 ft this afternoon to 7-10 ft into Monday afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will be possible along the front, before drier conditions return into Monday evening.

High pressure builds into the western Atlantic waters this week. Hazardous conditions linger through Tuesday, as winds and seas slowly subside. By mid-week, E/ESE flow 10-15 kts returns, as wave heights fall to 2-4 ft. Dry conditions are then forecast into the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A cold front will continue drifting southward across the Florida peninsula early this morning, with winds becoming northeasterly behind the front. MCO/ISM to TIX and terminals northward have already shifted to out of the northeast. Wind speeds also will increase behind the front, reaching 10 to 15 knots early this morning with gusts to 25 knots possible. Into this afternoon, speeds continue to increase up to 20 knots, with gusts to 30 knots possible. VCSH will be possible from TIX southward later this afternoon. Gusty winds will diminish after midnight at the terminals, with northeast winds remaining breezy at 10 to 15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions through early this week, as a cold front moves through the area. Westerly winds around 10 mph or less veer onshore at this coast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Min RH 35- 40% is forecast for areas west of I-95, excluding the Treasure Coast counties. Mostly dry this afternoon, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible into this evening generally south of Melbourne. A strong storm cannot be ruled out. Very good to excellent dispersion over the interior could lead to control issues.

A cold front will move through the area tonight into Monday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible tonight into Monday afternoon across southern portions of the forecast area. Lightning chances around 20-30%. Despite a brief increase in moisture for most areas, breezy to windy northeasterly winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph behind the front will maintain sensitive fire weather conditions.

Near Red Flag conditions Tuesday. Winds veer easterly and slacken to 10-15 mph, but remain breezy with gusts 20-25 mph and sensitive to near critical RH. Very good to excellent dispersion will continue to cause control concerns. Dry air will continue to cause sensitive fire weather conditions through much of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 61 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 79 61 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 78 65 78 64 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 78 64 78 63 / 30 0 0 0 LEE 80 57 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 79 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 80 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 78 64 78 62 / 30 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058- 144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.