textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms will persist through the week, with the highest coverage expected from mid to late week. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph, particularly today and Tuesday.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are expected through the week. Those working or recreating outdoors should take frequent breaks and stay hydrated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

A rather amplified upper-air pattern remains in place across the U.S. early this morning. An unseasonably cool trough sits over the eastern Great Lakes, with additional jet stream energy passing close to Glacier NP. Meanwhile, anomalous ridging extends from the Chihuahuan Desert to the Greater Antilles. A weakness in the ridge axis remains over Florida, where a weak shortwave trough currently resides.

Through at least Wednesday, the break in the ridge will remain very close to Florida as additional weak ripples of vorticity reinforce this general pattern. Then, from late week and into next weekend, global ensembles indicate that heights will build over the state as the Bermuda high attempts to establish itself closer to the Bahamas.

Expect the near-surface ridge axis to remain near or south of Central Florida through at least Wednesday. Thereafter, surface high pressure should become focused very close to or immediately north of the local area. PWAT (total moisture) values are forecast to sink slightly below normal early this week before climbing toward climatological norms for the rest of the forecast period.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tuesday...

The overall setup will not change too much as we begin the work week, aside from slightly drier air briefly filtering overhead. With broad light offshore flow and an expected sea breeze each afternoon, at least scattered showers and storms are forecast. Chances range from 30-40% today up to 30-60% on Tuesday, with the highest chances on Tuesday near and north of Orlando. Storms may linger into the evening due to late boundary collisions.

While the drier air should limit overall coverage a bit, it may also favor stronger downdrafts in storms that develop. There is a low chance for wind gusts up to 50-55 mph.

High temps will be hot, in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Heat indices peak at 100 to 107.

Wednesday - Friday...

As high pressure nudges essentially overhead, the low-level sea breeze circulation will be the dominant force for storm development each day. Light offshore flow in the mid-levels will try to steer showers and storms back toward the coast in the evening hours. As moisture returns to normal, this portends fairly high coverage of afternoon and early evening showers and storms for east central Florida (50-70%).

Seasonably hot conditions continue, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 100 to 107.

Next Weekend...

Near-normal moisture remains in place with high pressure strengthening nearby or just northeast of the local area. Scattered afternoon and evening storms should continue, but the focus may shift over the interior as mid-level offshore flow weakens. Continued seasonable heat and humidity.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Near-surface high pressure rests close to the Florida Straits, with weak offshore flow interrupted by the afternoon sea breeze. By the middle of the week, the ridge axis lifts closer to the local Atlantic waters. A few showers and storms are possible, especially at night over the Gulf Stream. Some evening storms may move offshore early in the work week.

Light S to SW breezes up to 10 kt, turning SE in the afternoon up to 12 kt with the sea breeze. Seas generally less than 2 feet.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Light S/SW winds through 15Z then Atlc sea breeze will develop and shift winds E/SE near 10 knots at coastal terminals by 17Z. With some drier air and lighter steering flow, do not expect too early of a start to convection. In fact it could be quite late across the interior (MCO/SFB) assocd with the sea breeze collision. So have added a PROB30 for MCO/SFB from 20Z-01Z. Slightly earlier PROB30 for the Treasure coast terminals (VRB- SUA) due to boundary interactions with the Okeechobee lake breeze and steering flow back toward the coast. Potential exists for gusty winds 35-45 knots in the stronger storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 75 92 74 / 30 10 50 20 MCO 95 76 94 76 / 40 10 50 10 MLB 93 77 93 76 / 30 10 40 20 VRB 93 75 92 75 / 30 10 30 20 LEE 93 75 92 75 / 40 10 60 10 SFB 94 75 93 75 / 40 10 50 20 ORL 94 77 94 76 / 40 10 50 10 FPR 93 75 92 75 / 30 10 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.