textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected through at least today at the east central Florida beaches. Entering the surf is not advised!

- A wet and unsettled pattern is forecast to persist across east central Florida through this weekend, as well as next week. The potential exists for minor flooding, lightning, and gusty winds each day. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall exists on Tuesday and Wednesday

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures continue through early next week across east central Florida. Peak heat indices of 100F and greater in some spots cannot be ruled out. Remain adequately hydrated!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Currently-Today... KMLB radar imagery shows mostly dry weather across east central Florida with isolated showers from southern Brevard county southwards. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations generally indicate partly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Temperatures are currently in the low 70s to low 80s with dew points in the low to upper 70s. Analysis charts show a mid/upper level high (591mb) over the state of Florida and the western Atlantic.

Isolated to numerous showers (20-60% chance) and lightning storms forecast to develop in the afternoon and evening hours with south- southeast low level flow in place and daytime heating. The greatest chance (40-60%) for showers and lightning storms are expected to be over areas along and north of I-4 as outflow from showers/storms upstream of east central Florida converge with southeasterly flow. The highest chance for showers and lightning storms is between 2PM and 8PM before rain chances gradually diminish across northern east central Florida tonight. Guidance shows MLCAPE up to 500-3,100 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 5-25kts, PWATs up to 2.0-2.4", and 500mb temperatures at around -6C. Thus, the potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 35-45mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3" in 60 minutes). Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values up to 98F-106F degrees are forecast. There is a Moderate HeatRisk with areas of Major HeatRisk, especially near the Orlando metro. A Moderate HeatRisk affects those sensitive to heat without adequate cooling and hydration; a Major HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Remember to practice heat safety, such as taking breaks in air conditioned air and drink plenty of water!

Monday-Tuesday... A cold front is forecast to move southeast across the Deep South and northern Florida to start off the workweek before stalling across east central Florida on Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers (30-70% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop along and ahead of the front across east central Florida into the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. The greatest chance for rain showers and lightning storms is between 2PM and 2AM. Above normal rain chances (80-90%) are forecast on Tuesday with the front expected to stall over the middle of east central Florida. ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles show PWAT values (2.0"+) towards the 99th+ percentile for both days. Additionally, guidance indicates moderate instability/CAPE values, weak to moderate bulk shear, and relatively warm 500mb temperatures. The aforementioned weather parameters is likely to limit the stronger storm potential, especially when coupled with substantial cloud cover; however, flooding will be a concern with slow storm motions and repeated rounds of showers/ storms expected. For this reason, the WPC has placed all of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. The primary hazards with a couple to a few strong storms will be occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall resulting in flooding (~5% chance) of roadways, as well as low-lying areas. Temperatures will be dependent on exactly where the front meanders with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s forecast on Monday expected to reduce to the low 80s to near 90F degrees on Tuesday. Heat index values in the mid 90s to around 103F degrees are forecast on Monday with the upper 80s to around 100F degrees on Tuesday forecast. A Moderate HeatRisk exists on Monday.

Wednesday-Saturday... Deterministic models and LREF-clusters are in good agreement that a longwave trough will deepen over the Deep south through Wednesday before the Atlantic ridge builds back over the state of Florida Thursday into Friday. A continuation of a blocking pattern is expected to keep the stationary boundary over east central Florida through at least Friday with high pressure upstream over the Ohio Valley/northeastern US, as well as high pressure downstream over the western Atlantic. Above normal rain chances (~70-90% chance) are forecast each day with scattered to numerous/widespread showers and lightning storms forecast, especially in the afternoon/evening hours. Grounds are expected to already be saturated at this point due to previous rains, and therefore flooding will continue to be a concern each day. It'll also take less rainfall to result in flooding by this point coupled with slow storm motions and repeated rounds of showers and lightning storms. For this reason, the WPC has place all of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for excessive rainfall on Wednesday. Expect below normal to seasonable high temperatures and generally near normal low temperatures.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Currently-Today... Favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers/lightning storms with onshore low level flow in place. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms with various storm motions are forecast. The potential exists for a isolated strong storm or two capable of wind gusts at 34kts or greater. Southeast winds at 6-12kts with gusts to 15-18kts are expected. Seas to 2-3ft with up to 4ft over the offshore (20-60nm) Brevard county waters are expected.

Monday-Thursday... Favorable boating conditions outside of showers and lightning storms are forecast through Tuesday before a stationary boundary meanders across the local Atlantic waters into midweek. Conditions are forecast to deteriorate and become hazardous on Wednesday over the local Atlantic waters as low pressure stalls near the east coast of Florida around Cape Canaveral. The potential exists for a couple to a few strong storms capable of wind gusts to 34kts or greater each day. Winds are forecast to turn onshore at 4-8kts on Monday before winds gradually turn offshore into Wednesday at 10-15kts south of Cape Canaveral and 15-20kts north of Cape Canaveral. Seas to 2-3ft Monday are forecast to build to 2-4ft with up to 5-6ft over the Volusia and Brevard county offshore waters on Tuesday, and 4-7ft on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Deep moisture should allow for another afternoon of scattered showers and a few storms. Mention of VCTS is currently limited to the interior terminals this afternoon while coastal terminals have a lower confidence mention of afternoon VCSH. Some of this activity may pushback eastward this evening, potentially lingering a few hours beyond sunset across the interior and DAB. East-southeast winds increase to around 10 kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable late tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 74 86 73 / 50 30 70 70 MCO 92 75 90 74 / 50 40 70 60 MLB 89 76 89 74 / 20 20 60 70 VRB 89 75 90 73 / 20 20 40 50 LEE 91 74 87 72 / 50 50 70 60 SFB 90 75 88 74 / 50 40 70 60 ORL 90 76 88 75 / 50 40 70 60 FPR 89 74 89 72 / 20 20 40 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.