textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Hot and dry conditions today and Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 90s nearing daily records.

- Rain chances begin to rise Friday into the weekend as a front nears and stalls just north of the area, with highs remaining above normal in the low 90s for much of the area.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist across the interior today, and then an increasing fire danger is forecast into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Today-Thursday...Temperatures will be more summer-like, with dry conditions prevailing as mid-level ridge across the Gulf expands across the Florida peninsula. A continued onshore flow today will allow the east coast sea breeze to move inland by early afternoon keeping max temps in the mid to upper 80s along the immediate coast. However, across the interior highs will reach the low to mid 90s, with Sanford and Leesburg having the potential to tie or break their record values for today (see climate section below). Ridge axis of surface high pressure across the West Atlantic will slide south of the area tomorrow, with low level winds increasing out of the W/SW. This will delay or prevent development of the east coast sea breeze allowing highs to reach the low to mid 90s area-wide Thursday. Leesburg, Sanford, Daytona Beach and Vero Beach are currently all forecast to either tie or break their record highs for tomorrow, with Orlando, Melbourne, and Fort Pierce all within 1-2 degrees of their record values.

Residents and visitors sensitive to heat should take precautions for these well above normal temperatures. Remember, NEVER leave children or pets in cars for any period of time. The increasing heat, as well as dry and breezy conditions Thursday will also lead to an increased fire weather danger tomorrow.

Friday-Sunday...A weak cold front slides southward into North Florida and stalls Friday morning. This boundary will linger just north of the area through Saturday before it begins to lifts farther northward into Sunday. This front will lead to an increase in moisture that will bring a return of isolated to scattered showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours as sea breeze boundaries push inland and collide. PoPs around 20-40% are limited to areas north of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast on Friday and then expand across the entire region Saturday and Sunday. Lingering drier air aloft will lead to the potential for isolated stronger storms each day, with the main threats including frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40-45 mph and locally heavy rainfall.

With front remaining to the north and mid-level ridge center moving slowly eastward across the Caribbean, temperatures will remain hotter than normal. Highs will still reach the low 90s for much of the area, and may still see some mid 90s across the southern interior. Either way, the added humidity from the increase in moisture will lead to heat index values in the mid to upper 90s both Friday and Saturday and these may increase to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees on Sunday. Potential heat impacts, particularly for heat-sensitive individuals, will therefore persist through the weekend.

Monday-Tuesday...Large scale trough aloft will push through the eastern U.S. into early next week, which will shift a weak cold front through the area into early next week. This will increase shower and storm chances into Monday (up to 40-50%), with rain chances then decreasing into Tuesday. Highs are forecast to remain above normal, in the low 90s on Monday, but the frontal passage is currently forecast to drop temperatures to more normal values Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions forecast today into tonight. Ridge axis of high pressure across the west Atlantic shifts southward across the waters today. Winds remain onshore out of the E/SE with speeds less than 15 knots, and seas will range from 2-3 feet. Dry conditions will prevail.

Thursday-Sunday...Boating conditions are forecast to remain generally favorable through late week and into the weekend. Ridge axis shifts south of the waters into late week, as a weak front moves into the Southeast United States. This front will then stall out near to just north of the waters Friday morning, lingering across North Florida through Saturday before lifting a little farther north Sunday. S/SE winds on Thursday increase to 10-15 knots. Then into Friday winds are forecast to be offshore in the morning before becoming onshore into the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Winds then prevail out of the S/SE through the weekend, with speeds still around 10-15 knots. Wave heights will remain around 2-3 feet. It will remain dry across the waters Thursday, and then isolated to scattered showers and storms return as front nears the area, especially into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Dry VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Ridge axis position will cause winds to range from SSE-SE at the northern terminals to the SE-E at the southern terminals today, increasing from light/VRB this morning to 7-12 kts in the afternoon. Winds then become light/VRB again after 00Z, shifting to the SSW-SW through the night. Again very low (10% or less) chances for fog to develop across the interior early Thursday morning. Breezy/gusty Thursday as winds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts from the W-SW in the afternoon. Very hot Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Increasingly hot and dry conditions forecast today into Thursday, with fire danger increasing, as highs reach into the low to mid 90s. Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist across the interior today, as Min RH values fall as low as the low to mid 30s. Wind speeds are generally forecast to remain below 15 mph today as they initially start out of the south-southeast and become east-southeast behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze this afternoon.

More dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast into Thursday afternoon, as winds increase out of the southwest in the afternoon and Min RH values fall to the upper 20s to mid 30s for much of the area. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Osceola and Brevard counties northward through Lake and Volusia counties where critically low RH and wind speeds around 15 mph are most likely to coincide. The east coast sea breeze will likely form south of the Cape, but will be delayed, switching winds to the southeast Thursday afternoon. This may keep Min RH values above critical values along the immediate coast where the sea breeze is able to form.

CLIMATE

Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for today, May 6th and Thursday, May 7th:

Site May 6 May 7 Daytona 95 (1955) 93 (1952) Leesburg 93 (2007) 94 (1984) Sanford 95 (1952) 94 (2009) Orlando 98 (1922) 98 (1915) Melbourne 94 (2022) 91 (1980) Vero Beach 95 (2022) 93 (1947) Fort Pierce 95 (2022) 95 (1906)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 90 70 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 93 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 86 72 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 87 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 93 70 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 94 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 93 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 86 70 93 72 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647- 747.

AM...None.