textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Breezy onshore winds today will continue poor to hazardous boating conditions across the coastal waters and lead to rough surf and a high risk for rip currents at area beaches. Conditions improve this weekend.

- Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are forecast through tonight, with shower and storm chances increasing Friday and into the weekend with a passing disturbance aloft.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 High pressure continues aloft over the southeast this afternoon with a low just east of Florida. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis extends north of the state, keeping an easterly boundary layer flow in place. A few showers have continued to push onshore from the Atlantic and this trend will continue through the rest of the day, with relatively drier air limiting overall coverage.

For Friday through the weekend, the surface high will shift southward as the mid/upper-level low moves westward across the state and then over the Gulf. Moisture will go back up during this period and this combined with the low aloft will lead to increased shower and storm chances, generally moving from the coast toward the interior in continued onshore flow. Then for early to mid next week, winds remain rather light and mostly onshore, with abundant moisture continuing to allow scattered to numerous storms each afternoon and evening as the sea breeze develops and shifts inland.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 East to northeast winds around 15-20 knots are forecast through the rest of the afternoon, then will decrease tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to develop across the waters, pushing westward each day. More favorable boating conditions return starting tomorrow and continue through the weekend, though shower and storm activity will still be the main hazard.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few passing showers is possible this afternoon, so will keep VCSH at most sites through 00Z, then rain-free conditions expected overnight. More morning showers possible on Friday morning, so will cover this with VCSH starting between 13-14Z. Breezy northeast winds around 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots will persist through the afternoon, then decreasing less than 10 knots overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 88 75 88 / 30 20 20 50 MCO 74 90 73 90 / 10 30 10 70 MLB 77 87 75 88 / 40 60 40 60 VRB 75 87 73 88 / 50 50 30 60 LEE 73 90 73 89 / 0 20 0 60 SFB 74 88 73 88 / 20 30 10 60 ORL 75 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 60 FPR 75 88 73 88 / 50 50 40 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.