textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- A high risk of rip currents persists at all east central Florida beaches through mid-week thanks to persistent onshore flow and lingering swells. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast most afternoons through the period, with a return of isolated storms to the forecast beginning on Thursday.

- A return of poor to hazardous boating conditions is forecast starting Thursday and will continue through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure remains in place across the Atlantic with the ridge axis staying just north of Florida, leading to a persistent easterly-flow regime across the peninsula. While moisture is anticipated to remain plentiful closer to the surface due to the onshore flow, a drier air mass settles within the mid- levels, which will work to suppress overall moisture across the area and therefore, rain chances. Maintain a 15-20% chance of showers this afternoon, with CAM guidance hinting at the best chances focused primarily from Brevard northward and towards the Orlando metro though isolated activity across the Treasure Coast cannot be ruled out. Confidence in where any showers develop does remain low. Any showers that manage to develop are forecast to diminish by this evening, with mostly dry conditions through the overnight hours. Limited instability will keep the environment unfavorable for any storm development today through tonight.

Onshore winds of 5 to 10 mph increase to 10 to 15 mph this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. With the persistent onshore flow and lingering swells, a high risk of rip currents is forecast to continue at all east central Florida beaches. Don't let the favorable weather fool you; entering the surf is strongly discouraged! Partly sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast through the day, with cloud coverage diminishing into this evening. Afternoon highs climb into the low 80s areawide, with the warmest temperatures focused across Lake County. Lows drop into the 60s tonight.

Thursday-Tuesday...The weather pattern is anticipated to remain fairly consistent through at least this weekend, with the surface high staying anchored across the Atlantic. The ridge axis will also remain relatively unchanged, residing just north of Florida. Onshore flow is forecast to persist areawide, locally enhanced each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, with conditions becoming gusty at times along the immediate coast. Moisture increases across east central Florida on Thursday as the mid-levels moisten, resulting in rain chances increasing to 40-60%. Moisture then subsides slightly through late week and into this weekend, with rain chances forecast to be 20-40% Friday through Sunday. Storm chances return to the forecast on Thursday as the environment becomes slightly more favorable for storm development as a result of increasing instability and surface heating. Storm chances reach 30% on Thursday before falling Friday through Sunday to around 20%. Any activity that manages to develop may be capable of producing lightning strikes, wind gusts, and brief heavy downpours. Temperatures continue on a warming trend through late this week, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s across the interior. The onshore flow and east coast sea breeze will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Lows are forecast to remain in the 60s.

Beyond Sunday, the pattern across east central Florida is forecast to shift as the surface high pushes farther east across the Atlantic and a cold front approaches the area. There are some timing discrepancies with current guidance, with some indicating that the front will be slow-moving across the area on Monday, moving south of the area by early Tuesday while others indicate the frontal passage occurring more on Tuesday. Regardless of timing, moisture will increase out ahead of and along the boundary, resulting in increasing rain and storm chances across east central Florida. With the timing discrepancies, the NBM keeps PoPs between 30-60% both Monday and Tuesday, with the highest values focused on Tuesday. Being that this is still several days out though, there will likely be timing and PoP adjustments as guidance becomes clearer and comes into better agreement. Winds finally break from the onshore flow and become more northwesterly ahead of the front and northeasterly behind the front. Afternoon highs will trend cooler behind the front, falling closer to near- normal values for this time of year across east central Florida. Lows will also trend cooler, with the coolest temperatures focused primarily near and north of the I-4 corridor and across rural portions of Osceola and Okeechobee counties.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

High pressure will remain in place northeast of the local Atlantic waters, resulting in continued easterly flow locally. Winds and seas have subsided below cautionary thresholds, though this is anticipated to be short-lived. Winds increase to 15 to 20 knots tonight into Thursday, with seas forecast to build once again to 5 to 7 feet, with the highest seas focused primarily across the offshore zones. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed once again starting Thursday afternoon across the offshore zones, continuing through at least Saturday. Beyond Saturday, poor boating conditions will linger, with a return once more of hazardous conditions behind a frontal passage early next week. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to persist across the local waters through the remainder of this week, with a return of isolated storm chances starting on Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 627 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A few light showers are drifting onshore prior to sunrise this morning, though coverage is too low to include a VCSH mention. A few rogue showers will remain possible along the coast into tonight. VFR conditions prevailing. Easterly winds increase to 10-15 kts late morning into the afternoon, with gusts 20-25 kts, highest along the coast. Winds slacken overnight, before increasing again Thursday morning out of the east-southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 63 82 67 / 20 10 60 10 MCO 81 64 84 68 / 20 0 60 10 MLB 79 67 80 69 / 20 10 60 20 VRB 80 66 81 68 / 20 10 60 20 LEE 83 63 85 67 / 20 0 50 10 SFB 83 63 85 67 / 20 0 60 10 ORL 83 64 84 68 / 20 0 60 10 FPR 80 65 82 67 / 10 10 60 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.