textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Patchy to areas of fog, locally dense, will possible the next couple nights/mornings.

- High pressure influence continues with increasing warm and dry conditions. Near record highs possible Friday and Saturday.

- A HIGH rip current threat will exist through late week. Always swim near a life-guarded beach and never enter the water alone. Entering the chilly surf will be strongly discouraged for much of this week!

- Medium (40-50pct) rain chances and low (20pct) lightning storm chances forecast on Sunday as the next strong cold front passes central Florida. A very significant cool-down is expected early next week behind this latest front as winter returns with a vengeance!

- Dangerous wind chills expected Monday overnight into Tuesday morning with unseasonably cold low temperatures early next week. A potential mix of Freeze Watches/Warnings (Mon/Tue nights), Cold Weather Advisory (Mon night), and Frost Advisory (Tue night) will be in play.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Current-Tonight...South to southwest winds 8-12 mph "backing" SE 10- 15 mph along the coast this afternoon with sea breeze formation. Temperatures continue above climo in the U70s to around 80F at the coast with values in the L-M80s into the interior. Light winds tonight returning to an offshore component at 5 mph or less areawide. Continued dry conditions with PCloudy skies. Biggest forecast challenge continues to be potential fog/low (stratus) cloud development overnight into early Fri morning. Sea fog along the west FL coast is again expected to advect east into portions of ECFL late overnight into early Fri morning. Will likely see some low cloud ceilings develop as well over portions of the coverage warning area - especially the I-4 corridor. We continue to carry patchy to areas of fog in the grids/zones across much of the area. Fog could become locally dense. A Special Weather Statement for fog or a Dense Fog Advisory will be in play (as necessary). Motorists should stay alert for sudden changes in visibility early Fri morning. Overnight mins remain mild in the U50s to L60s with M60s along the immediate Treasure Coast/barrier islands.

Fri-Sat...Surface high pressure across the western Atlc continues to push further seaward with associated ridge axis across the southern FL peninsula. The next cold front is still poised to slide southward into north FL early Sun morning. Continued mainly dry conditions and increasing temperatures are forecast, though a low (20pct) rain chance will be forecast late Sat overnight across portions of Lake/Volusia counties ahead of the approaching boundary.

SW/W flow on Fri-Sat, will "back" onshore each afternoon along the coast with sea breeze formation. Highs in the L-M80s each afternoon along the coast with U80s into the interior. Near record highs forecast each day especially across interior locations. Lows continue in the U50s to L60s, with M60s across the barrier islands. Expect increasing drought and fire weather sensitivities to continue. There will remain patchy to areas of (dense) fog potential in the overnight and early morning periods.

Sun-Thu...A big shock to the "system" coming Sun into the middle of next week as winter shows it is not done with us yet! Mid/upper level troughing across the eastern CONUS will force a strong cold front southward through central FL during the day on Sun. This will usher in very cold/much drier conditions for early-mid next week. We continue to carry a medium (40-50pct) rain chance and a low (20pct) lightning storm chance for the day on Sun. Again, only brief light to moderate rainfall is expected with this system and will not put much if any dent into the current drought conditions. West to northwest winds likely to be breezy/gusty on Sun. Breezy NW winds may continue into Mon as heightened fire sensitivity will be necessary. High pressure builds into the region thru early next week, with the center of high pressure over central FL Tue overnight.

Highs Sun in the M-U70s to around 80F along/north of I-4 with L-M80s southward. Mon/Tue highs continue to trend cooler. Temps each day will struggle into the U50s to near 60F along/north of a Titusville- Kissimmee line with near 60F to L60s southward. Highs begin to moderate on Wed into the L-M70s, though coastal Volusia may remain in the U60s. On Thu, expect M-U70s near the coast with U70s to L80s inland.

Latest model guidance, again, continues to trend cooler with temperatures Mon-Tue nights. Lows drop Mon morning into the U30s to L40s almost areawide, with coldest values across north Lake/interior Volusia counties and portions of south Osceola/north Okeechobee counties. Warmest temps in the M40s for Orlando Metro & Martin County. Tue/Wed mornings are expected to be the coldest in the extended with mins in the L-M30s across most of the interior (U30s Orlando Metro), with M-U30s to near 40F along the coast. Barrier islands slightly warmer. Thu morning warmer, but still below climo in the 40s, except for L50s along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts.

Winds will remain elevated Sun overnight with lowest min wind chills/apparent temps Mon morning in the L-U30s to L40s (Martin County coast). Lowest wind chills overnight Mon into Tue morning are forecast in the M-U20s to L30s (Martin County coast). Patchy to Areas of frost greatest potential will be overnight Tue into Wed morning when high pressure is centered across the area and winds are lightest (below 5 mph). A Cold Weather Advisory is likely nearly areawide for Mon overnight into Tue. Freeze Watches/Warnings may need to be considered for some counties Mon/Tue overnights. A Frost Advisory may be under consideration for Tue overnight where a Freeze Warning is not in place.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

S/SW/W winds AOB 15 kts thru Sat night, except "backing" onshore along the coast each afternoon with sea breeze formation. A persistent long period NE swell continues to keep seas 3-5 ft for now. Seas subsiding to 2-4 ft into Fri evening, then AOB 3 ft thru Sat night. Both winds/seas begin to ramp up thru the day on Sun/Sun night becoming Hazardous with approach/passage of a strong cold front. Gale conditions may be met Sun night into Mon. Conditions will remain poor to hazardous for boating through early next week. There may be some patchy to areas of (locally dense) fog concerns near the Volusia/north Brevard coasts each of the next couple of mornings.

Generally dry thru Sat with slight rain chances Sat night (north). SCT-NMRS (40-60%) rain chances with ISOLD (20%) lightning storm chances areawide on Sun with accompanying front. Generally dry Mon/Tue, but cannot rule out an ISOLD shower well offshore.

Hazardous conditions continue at inlets across the Space/Treasure coasts during the twice daily outgoing tide. Small craft boaters will need to Exercise Caution here.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1225 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

SW winds around 10 knots become more SE from MLB southward this afternoon as a sea breeze develops and moves inland. Winds then become light and variable to calm beyond 00Z. Fog and stratus development will be possible once again tonight, with current guidance favoring VIS reductions across the interior terminals and DAB. Still too early to add TEMPOs, so hedged VIS to 6SM and maintained SCT wording for CIGs at FL008 at 06Z. MVFR/IFR TEMPOs likely needed with future forecast packages, with conditions anticipated to improve around 15Z on Friday. Winds remain out of the SW into Friday around 10 knots. Dry conditions forecast through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Ridge axis of high pressure over the western Atlantic extending to Florida settles south of the area through Friday, producing generally offshore (S-SW) winds, becoming more W-SW Saturday afternoon, but shifts S-SE along the coast and portions of the southern counties in the late afternoons and evenings as the sea breeze develops and pushes slowly inland. Winds speeds 5-10 mph, closer to the upper end between 2 PM and 5 PM, settle to 5 mph or less during the overnights. Gradual warming causes humidity values to slowly decrease, with min RHs 40-55% this afternoon becoming 35- 55% Friday/Saturday. Afternoon dispersion values generally Very Good to Excellent, but could be more Fair across parts of the southern counties Friday/Saturday.

Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions return early next week. A strong cold front is forecast to push through central Florida Sunday, preceded by some modest (40-50%) rain chances, and low (around 20%) chances for lightning storms during the day. Breezy/gusty conditions develop ahead of and behind the front as winds shift to the W-NW and increase to 10-15 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. Min RHs recover a bit Sunday early, but if drier air filters in quicker we could see 35-40% min RH values later Sun afternoon across the I-4 corridor which could be near or at Red Flag criteria. Fire weather conditions are likely to become critical Monday as min RHs crash to 20-30% areawide while NW winds remain 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph, possibly to 30 mph. Lighter winds into Tue, but critically low min RHs will be forecast still nearly areawide. Afternoon dispersion values Very Good to Excellent into the weekend. Rain is not expected outside of the frontal passage.

Patchy to areas of (dense) fog are forecast across much of east central Florida the next 2 to 3 mornings. Conditions also remain favorable for low stratus cloud development each morning as well.

CLIMATE

Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Record Highs for Friday/Saturday, February 20th/21st: RECORD RECORD NORMAL DATE HIGH DATE HIGH HI DAB 20-Feb 85 1988 21-Feb 87 1989 72 LEE 20-Feb 86 2018 21-Feb 87 2018 74 SFB 20-Feb 86 2019 21-Feb 87 2003 75 MCO 20-Feb 89 1988 21-Feb 88 1989 76 MLB 20-Feb 86 1988 21-Feb 88 1989 75 VRB 20-Feb 88 2023 21-Feb 87 2014 76 FPR 20-Feb 88 1932 21-Feb 89 1989 76

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 62 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 60 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 60 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 62 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 62 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 63 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 59 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.