textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

- A good chance for showers late tonight into Thursday associated with a cold front. Any rain will be welcome but most locations will see amounts of a quarter inch or less.

- Another shot of cold air Thursday night with widespread lows in the 30s with a wind chill.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions Thu afternoon behind the front and Friday with gusty winds and low humidity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Tonight/Thu...Cold front currently over the western FL panhandle will continue SE and bring scattered to numerous showers across the area late tonight and Thu. Brief downpours will occur in some areas with most receiving between one quarter inch or less of rain. A few locations could see a little more. Any rain will be beneficial as this is the only rain chance in the next 7 days (at least). Clearing will occur from NW to SE Thu afternoon as gusty W/NW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph advect drier air across the area. The cold advection will counteract the increasing sunshine so max temps will hold in the low to mid 60s.

Thu night...Cold with min temps in the mid to upper 30s across most of the area. A NW wind will produce wind chills in the upper 20s/near 30F. Have pre-coordinated with WFO Tampa and we agree that a Cold Weather Advisory is likely for most of our forecast areas. There is confidence that any freezing temperatures will be limited to the Ocala Forest in north Lake county and far NW Volusia. Where winds go light, esp those wind protected areas, patchy frost will occur.

Fri...Breezy, cool and dry with below normal max temperatures holding in the low to mid 60s despite full sunshine. Winds should become gusty out of the west 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Not as cold Friday night ahead of a second front with lows in the low to mid 40s. A persistent breeze will produce a wind chill but criteria for Cold Weather Adv (30F or below) should not be met.

Sat-Tue (modified)...Temperatures Saturday afternoon recover to the mid 60s Volusia coast to the lower 70s Okeechobee. Then a backdoor front pushes S/SW across the area Saturday night. There doesn't look like a lot of cold air behind this front which makes sense since the wind shift behind this front is from the NE, off the Atlc. Seasonable temperatures return Monday afternoon, becoming slightly above normal Tue as dry conditions persist.

MARINE

Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Tonight/Thu...Southwest to west winds will pick up tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Pressure gradient will support 15-20 knots well offshore late tonight so have headlined a Caution there. The front will sweep across the waters during the morning and midday Thu with deteriorating boating conditions. W/NW to NW winds will increase behind the front 20 knots nearshore and 20-25 knots offshore with higher gusts. Seas will remain 2-3 FT nearshore and 4 FT offshore tonight then build 5-7 FT offshore by late Thu. Seas become fully developed in the Gulf Stream Thu night at 8-9 FT. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the local Atlc waters beginning at 10 AM Thu.

Fri-Mon...Winds and seas decrease/subside some on Friday but remain poor to hazardous, esp in the Gulf Stream. Do not anticipate an Advisory for the nearshore waters during Fri but another surge of NW winds overspreads the waters Fri night. Have continued the Advisory over the offshore waters Fri and may need to temporarily expand it back to the nearshore waters for a time Fri night. Conditions will begin to improve Sat but Gulf Stream conditions will remain hazardous and the Advisory continues thru at least Sat. Winds become NE and decrease Sunday around 10 knots but seas will be slow to subside. Offshore flow 10 knots redevelops Monday and seas will finally fall below 6 FT in the Gulf Stream.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR for now with light SSW winds. SCT-OVC 5-10 kft CIGs are slowly moving east from VRB-SUA as BKN-OVC 10 kft CIGs spread across northern terminals. A gradual increase in -SHRA activity and lowering of CIGs is forecast after 07z-14z from NW to SE across ECFL. Made minor adjustments with TEMPOs to identify period of highest confidence IFR CIGs (cannot rule out few hours of LIFR). As a cold front moves thru, drier and windier conds develop. NW winds reach 12-18 kt with gusts around 25 kt after 16-18z. Winds begin to decrease, except MLB to SUA, after 02z Fri.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions continue this afternoon Orlando northward as min RHs fall near critical values 35-40% with Very Good to Excellent dispersion values.

Scattered to numerous showers will push through the area late tonight through Thursday afternoon associated with a cold frontal passage. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be a quarter inch or less. Behind the front, winds shift out of the northwest and increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph behind the front, peaking 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the late afternoon and evening.

On Friday, breezy west winds 15 to 20 mph will gust to 25 mph. With min RH values falling 25 to 30 percent, Friday will be a fire sensitive day. Much cooler temperatures will lower mixing heights but dispersion values will still be Very Good.

Fog potential...Widespread fog is not forecast. Localized visibility reductions due to smoke from new or existing fires will be possible even if fog is not forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 34 61 44 / 70 0 0 0 MCO 61 38 62 48 / 70 0 0 0 MLB 63 36 63 45 / 60 0 0 0 VRB 64 35 63 43 / 60 0 0 0 LEE 60 34 61 44 / 60 0 0 0 SFB 61 35 62 45 / 70 0 0 0 ORL 61 37 62 46 / 70 0 0 0 FPR 65 34 63 43 / 60 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.