textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for interior portions of east central Florida until 9 AM.

- High pressure across the southeastern US will keep conditions dry locally through at least Wednesday afternoon, with a return of rain chances late this week into the weekend.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist across the local Atlantic waters through at least the middle of this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

This Morning...Clear skies and northwest winds this morning will allow temperatures to continue falling, with lows anticipated to reach the low 30s to low 40s areawide, with the warmest temperatures focused along the Treasure Coast. Current light northwest winds are forecast to increase over the next few hours, producing wind chill values below 30 degrees across portions of the interior, particularly rural locations. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee, and inland Volusia counties. If heading out early this morning, be sure to bundle up with a warm jacket. Patchy to areas of frost will also be possible in rural locations, especially across northern Lake and Volusia counties.

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure is forecast to remain situated across the Gulf and southeastern US as a reinforcing front moves southward across the area today. Locally, dry conditions are forecast to persist today into tonight, with clear skies areawide. North to northeast winds will become breezy at 10 to 15 mph as the high strengthens and the pressure gradient becomes a bit tighter locally. Temperatures will reach the 60s areawide this afternoon, with some spots across the Treasure Coast even reaching the low 70s. Overnight lows also overall trend warmer, with temperatures falling into the 40s across the interior and into the 50s along the coast. The coldest temperatures late tonight will be focused near and north of the I-4 corridor.

Wednesday-Friday...The surface high will shift northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic and offshore on Wednesday, gradually weakening Wednesday night. Conditions are forecast to remain mostly dry on Wednesday, but developing onshore flow will prompt moisture advection from the Atlantic towards the peninsula. Rain chances begin to increase Wednesday night, with onshore-moving showers possible south of the Cape. Thursday, a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop near the Bahamas and drift northeastward out across the Atlantic, lifting a stalled boundary northward towards the Florida peninsula and leading to increased moisture locally. The low washes out and the weak stalled boundary remains in place into Friday, draped across the Florida peninsula. Additionally, another slow-moving cold front will begin to approach Florida from the north, so east central Florida appears to be sandwiched between these two boundaries. There are discrepancies between just how much moisture will be present across the area Thursday and Friday, so have opted to stick with the NBM which maintains a 20-40% chance of showers across most of east central Florida each day.

Temperatures are forecast to follow a warming trend, with highs in the 70s on Wednesday and Thursday reaching above normal values on Friday in the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures are also forecast to follow a slow warming trend, with values generally in the 50s and 60s.

Saturday-Monday...The approaching cold front will move slowly towards east central Florida this weekend and into early next week, with little movement caused by a lack of mid and upper level support. Guidance continues to remain inconsistent on exact timing of when the front will clear east central Florida, but the latest guidance is trending later. As a result of this, Saturday now looks to have lower rain chances, while rain chances remain around 20-30% across northern portions on Sunday and broadly around 20% on Monday. Temperatures will reach their warmest values through the forecast period on Saturday, remaining well above normal values for this time of year areawide. By Sunday and Monday, temperatures begin to slowly decrease as cloud coverage increases and the front approaches closer to east central Florida. A return of colder temperatures will be possible into Monday night.

MARINE

Issued at 210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

North to northeast winds at 15 to 20 knots will cause seas to slowly build through today, reaching 6 to 8 feet once again this afternoon across the Gulf Stream waters. Small Craft Advisories across the Gulf Stream will go into effect at 1 PM, continuing into the overnight hours and through Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, small craft will likely need to exercise caution. Winds veer to out of the east into Wednesday, maintaining seas of at least 6 feet across the offshore zones through at least Thursday. Seas gradually subside as winds weaken late this week, with a return of generally favorable boating conditions Friday through Saturday morning. This will be short-lived, however, as an approaching cold front leads to increasing winds (15-20 knots) across the waters and seas build up to 9 feet across offshore zones late Saturday into Sunday.

High pressure located in proximity of the local Atlantic waters will help maintain generally dry conditions through Wednesday. As the high shifts northeastward, winds become onshore and begin advecting moisture across the local waters. A stalled boundary then lifts northward close to the area into Thursday and Friday, with a cold front then approaching from the north into this weekend. Overall, rain chances return to the forecast starting Wednesday night, with a 20-50% chance of rain anticipated to persist through much of the forecast period. Storms are not anticipated.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 600 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR continues as high pressure builds into the region. A tighter pressure gradient will exist today with N/NNE winds 10-17 kts and gusty...up to 25 kts along the coast. Will also see a gradual increase in marine stratocu crossing the coast MLB-SUA with bases 035-040 AGL. Dry conditions persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Another day of sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated across east central Florida today, particularly north of the I-4 corridor. Minimum RH values in this area are forecast to fall to 30- 35%, particularly across Lake and northwestern Volusia counties. North to northeast winds will reach 10 to 15 mph today, though the strongest winds are not anticipated near the areas with the lowest RH values. Fire weather conditions are forecast to improve by Wednesday as minimum RH values recover to above 35% and winds remain below 15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 48 71 57 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 64 48 74 58 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 66 55 73 61 / 0 0 10 20 VRB 68 56 74 60 / 0 0 10 30 LEE 62 43 71 54 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 63 47 73 57 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 63 48 73 58 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 69 56 74 60 / 0 0 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ572.