textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are forecast across east central Florida today, highest near and north of the I-4 corridor. Storm hazards include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3".

- Below normal rain and storm chances start off the work week as high pressure lifts northward towards the Florida peninsula, with a return of near normal rain and storm chances from Wednesday onward as moisture increases.

- Near normal temperatures will persist through this week, but humidity will still produce peak heat indices of 100F and greater. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or A/C will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Today-Tonight...A deep mid-level trough is forecast to remain situated across the eastern US, with a shortwave rounding the trough and moving across the Florida peninsula today. At the surface, east central Florida remains sandwiched between the Atlantic ridge axis to the south and a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US to the north. A plume of moisture will work across central Florida today, with the shortwave aloft assisting with shower and storm development along with the typical diurnal pattern. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will start late this morning near and north of the I-4 corridor, with coverage expanding southward through the afternoon hours. Activity will then shift eastward towards the coast, where additional interactions with the east coast sea breeze may support further development of activity. The highest rain and storm chances (50-60%) are focused near and north of the I-4 corridor where moisture is anticipated to be greatest today. While some hi- res guidance continues to favor this evolution of activity, it is important to note that drier air aloft could act as a limiting factor for shower and storm development. Decided to lean slightly more towards an active pattern given the mid-level support and plume of moisture present, hence the slight discrepancy in the forecast when compared to the NBM. The environment continues to look favorable for storm development, with diurnal heating increasing instability, dry air aloft supporting downbursts, and the plume of moisture supporting heavy rainfall. Hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3". Westerly steering flow will keep activity moving offshore, with a gradual decline in coverage into the evening and overnight hours. Activity may even diminish slightly quicker than forecast given the earlier potential start time, and adjustments to the forecast will be made as needed depending on how things evolve today. Additional shower and storm development across the local Atlantic waters cannot be ruled out overnight, especially across the Gulf Stream waters.

Outside of showers and storms, anticipate higher cloud coverage which will help keep temperatures closer to normal values today. Highs reach the low 90s, combining with humidity to produce peak heat indices of 102F to 107F. The greatest peak heat indices are anticipated across the Treasure Coast, where cloud coverage may not be quite as high. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat illness. Overnight, temperatures fall into the mid 70s.

Monday-Tuesday...The deep troughing across the eastern US begins to lift northeastward and weaken, resulting in the weakening of the surface boundary draped across the southeast US. The surface Atlantic high is forecast to lift northward in response, with the ridge axis draping across the Florida peninsula. Locally, this will result in light southerly flow both Monday and Tuesday, allowing for both easier development and intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze. Drier air is forecast to filter across the area on Monday, with the southerly flow slowly advecting moisture back towards east central Florida into Tuesday. This drier air will result in below- normal rain chances, ranging between 20-30% on Monday and 20-40% on Tuesday. Any activity that does manage to develop will be favored in the afternoon hours, driven primarily by the sea breezes and any subsequent interactions. Storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts 45-55 mph, and heavy downpours. Lighter steering flow aloft both Monday and Tuesday may lead to slow and erratic storm motions, which will also increase the potential for minor, localized flooding in some spots if showers and storms do manage to develop. Overall, weak southwesterly flow aloft will support movement towards the east coast, with activity pushing offshore through the late evening and overnight hours. Continued development across the local Atlantic waters will be possible each night, with mostly dry conditions across the peninsula. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal each afternoon, with highs near and north of the I-4 corridor reaching the mid 90s, with highs in the low 90s elsewhere. At this time, peak heat indices are forecast to range between 102F to 107F, remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria. Those spending extended periods of time outdoors will need to remain adequately hydrated and take breaks in the shade or A/C to prevent the development of heat-related illness. Overnight, temperatures are anticipated to remain near normal in the mid 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday...Broad mid-level ridging across the Atlantic will extend towards the Florida peninsula from the middle of this week into the weekend, with the Atlantic high at the surface generally remaining in place. The surface ridge axis is forecast to stay draped across the Florida peninsula, with light southerly winds prevailing through Friday, becoming more southeasterly next weekend as the ridge axis lifts slightly northward. Daily development of the east coast sea breeze is anticipated, and when combined with the moist air mass in place, will support a diurnal pattern of shower and storm development each day. Rain and storm chances remain near normal values (40-70%), with lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours possible. General model trends favor activity diminishing into the late evening and overnight hours across the peninsula each day. Temperatures will remain near normal in the low 90s during the afternoon hours, falling into the mid 70s during the overnight hours. Peak heat indices are anticipated to remain below advisory criteria but will still exceed 100F, so heat safety will continue to be important through the remainder of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local waters through this week. The Atlantic high lifts northward towards the waters starting Monday, causing the southwesterly winds today to become more southerly Monday onward. Light wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots during the overnight and morning hours increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift to out of the southeast during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops each day. Seas remain generally between 1 to 3 feet, with the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be possible, with activity generally moving offshore from the peninsula each afternoon into the evening hours. Continued development overnight across the Gulf Stream waters will be possible. Storm hazards will include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 715 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Only tweaks to this TAF package was to move timing of initial shower and storm development an hour or two earlier, now focusing on 18-21Z for MCO with vicinity activity as early as 16Z. With activity already along the Nature Coast, will need to monitor trends to ensure this is early enough. This is esp the case at LEE where showers are already encroaching. Later in the day, focus of storms should shift to coastal terminals between 19Z and 00Z, ending last at Treasure Coast sites. Brief IFR/LIFR and wind gusts exceeding 35 kt will be the primary risks from storms this afternoon and evening. Sea breeze remains pinned at the coast, with terminals from MLB southward briefly turning SE in the afternoon up to 10 kt. VFR prevailing outside convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 75 92 75 / 60 10 10 10 MCO 93 76 95 76 / 50 20 20 10 MLB 94 76 93 77 / 40 20 20 10 VRB 93 75 92 75 / 30 20 20 10 LEE 90 75 94 75 / 60 10 20 10 SFB 92 75 94 76 / 60 10 20 10 ORL 92 76 94 77 / 50 20 20 10 FPR 94 75 92 75 / 30 20 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.