textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Deep moisture and southwest flow will continue high afternoon and evening rain chances along the sea breeze collision early this week. Drier air will noticeably reduce rain chances mid to late week.

- Seasonably hot today with a warming trend building through the upcoming week.

- A Moderate Risk of rip currents exists at all local beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Today-Tonight... Weak high pressure is modeled aloft (250mb) while a broad surface ridge axis loosely extends from the western Atlantic and over south Florida. Light southwest flow will continue to favor the west coast sea breeze with a sea breeze collision over the eastern half of the peninsula late in the afternoon and into the evening. Modeled moisture remains high with PWATs near to above 2.0". With little change to the synoptic pattern, a generally persistent forecast is expected. Mostly dry to start the day with isolated showers and storms developing along the east coast sea breeze by late morning and into the early afternoon. Widely scattered showers and storms should approach from the west by the afternoon with peak coverage (50-70%) of showers and storms forecast between 4pm-8pm as a sea breeze collision occurs near or west of I-95 and east of Orlando. Light showers and storms may persist through the evening with dry conditions then forecast overnight. High surface instability (~4,000 J/kg), modest DCAPE (~700-800 J/kg), and slightly cooler temperatures aloft compared to yesterday (~ -7C to -8C @ 500mb) may allow for isolated strong storms along the sea breeze collision late in the day. Strong storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds 45-55 mph. Steering flow may only show a slight increase to what was seen yesterday, and periods of heavy rainfall remain a concern in slow moving storms. Outside of storms, seasonably hot temperatures continue with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values ranging 100-105F. Overnight lows remain mild, mostly in the mid 70s.

Monday-Saturday... A mid to upper level trough across the midwest U.S. digs south and east into Monday. Global models then diverge in how this feature may evolve over the next several days. The GFS slowly pulls the feature north and eastward, moving offshore the Atlantic coast mid week. The European model stalls the feature as a brief cutoff low mid week, before it weakens and lifts east- northeast Thursday and Friday. In either solution, models suggest high pressure will work to maintain control of the local weather pattern. South to southwest flow is forecast to persist through the period, keeping the focus of diurnally driven convection across the eastern side of the Florida peninsula. Deep moisture looks to hold through at least Tuesday before drier air advects through the mid levels through the remainder of the week. Scattered to locally numerous rain chances continue Monday and Tuesday before daily rain chances begin to noticeably taper off Wednesday onward. Afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s early in the week follow a warming trend with highs forecast in the mid to upper 90s across the interior from Wednesday onward. Will have to monitor heat index values nearing Heat Advisory criteria across portions of the area mid to late week.

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

High pressure will maintain favorable boating conditions outside of showers and storms. Light southwest flow continues each day, shifting south to southeast near the coast as the sea breeze develops. Southerly winds increase to 10-15 kts each evening and early overnight. Seas of 1-2 ft occasionally build to 3 ft far offshore early this week, and by Wednesday night, seas more widely build to range 2-3 ft. Scattered to locally numerous offshore moving showers and storms are forecast each evening through Tuesday with drier air noticeably reducing rain chances from Wednesday onward.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 637 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Summertime sea breeze pattern will produce high coverage of slow moving showers and storms once again today. A dominant west coast sea breeze will lead to a collision over the eastern half of the peninsula. VCTS begins across the interior first (18-19Z), then spreads eastward through 20Z. Have included TEMPOs/PROB30 for all TAF sites; however, the greatest chances look to be generally over the interior south of MCO. Activity is forecast to peak from 21-23Z, but showers may linger from MLB southward through around 2-3Z. Elsewhere, convective activity diminishes near 0Z. Winds 10 kts or less through the period, veering S/SE this afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 76 92 76 / 60 30 60 20 MCO 92 76 93 76 / 60 30 60 30 MLB 90 77 91 77 / 70 40 60 20 VRB 91 75 91 75 / 70 50 60 20 LEE 92 77 93 77 / 50 20 60 10 SFB 93 77 94 77 / 60 20 70 30 ORL 92 77 93 77 / 60 30 70 20 FPR 90 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.