textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Afternoon and early evening storms will focus on the eastern side of the Florida peninsula today where sea breeze convergence will generate lightning storms capable of very heavy rain and gusty winds up to 55 mph.

- Near-normal rain and storm chances continue into early next week, with the potential arrival of more Saharan dust mid-week limiting rain and storm chances mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Today-Monday...Mid-level high pressure ridge remains in place across the Florida peninsula today but weakens slightly Monday as mid level trough settles into the deep South. The low level ridge axis will shift south today which will produce a more offshore (west) flow. This will delay onset of the east coast sea breeze and it will have to fight against the offshore flow to progress very much inland. Moisture will be higher across northern sections (PWATS around 2") so rain/storm chances will be highest over Volusia/Seminole/north Brevard around 60%. NBM showing dry conditions along the Treasure coast this afternoon but with a sea breeze collision occurring late in the day, have drawn scattered Pops there. Similar conditions for Monday except the sea breeze may be delayed even more as westerly 850 mb flow increases near 15 knots which should pin the sea breeze closer to the coast. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 55 mph, and heavy downpours.

Because of the delayed sea breezes, afternoon temperatures are forecast to be hotter along the coast than recent days, reaching the mid 90s there as well as interior. Peak heat indices are forecast to exceed 100, but there is less confidence in reaching Heat Advisory criteria (108). Record highs look largely out of reach but Vero Beach has the best chance to equal its record of 96F from 2010.

Tue-Sat...Mid-level troughing will be draped across the southeast US into the middle of next week, providing mid-level support for a stalling boundary just north of the Florida peninsula. The surface high will weaken across the Florida peninsula, with the ridge axis shifting southward. While this set- up would typically lead to increasing moisture across the local area, there is guidance suggesting another wave of Saharan dust overspreads the Florida peninsula, which would help to limit shower and storm development esp Wed and Thu when rain chances will be 10-20%. Rain chances gradually increase Fri-Sat with 20-40% chance. The lack of rain/storm coverage will rebuild the heat with temperatures forecast to climb into the upper 90s for portions of the interior and mid 90s coast. WOuld not be surprised to see a resumption of Heat Advisories.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Favorable winds and seas are forecast to continue through this weekend and into next week as broad high pressure remains in place across the local Atlantic waters. South to southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots during the overnight and morning hours will become more southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Seas are forecast to remain between 1 to 2 feet through the period, up to 3 ft offshore Volusia Wed-Thu.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible at times across the local Atlantic waters through the forecast period. The best storm chances are forecast today and Monday, primarily across the nearshore waters as activity moves offshore into the late evening and overnight hours. Gusty winds 35-45 knots and frequent lightning strikes will accompany the stronger storms.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection at ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Light SW-WSW/VRB winds overnight pick up to 5-10 kts from the WSW in the late morning. Offshore flow will slow development/inland progression of the east coast sea breeze, shifting winds onshore (SE-E) along the coast after 18Z. TS are forecast to develop on the quick moving west coast sea breeze after 18Z (possibly as early as 16Z) and gradually increase in coverage while pushing east. ISO TS may develop on the nearly pinned east coast sea breeze INVOF of the coastal terminals after 18Z. TS forecast to become SCT-NUM leading up to and along the sea breeze collision after 20Z west of the I-95 corridor. Added TEMPOs for TS impacts at KMCO and most other TAFs from KMLB-KISM north, and PROB30 along the Treasure Coast where chances are a little lower. Some uncertainty in timing, and can't rule out TS impacts an hour or two sooner than forecast in the TAFs. Will continue to evaluate. TS/SH diminish or move offshore after 00Z, but impacts could linger as late as 04Z. Quiet again overnight after convection dies off and winds become light S-SW/VRB.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 76 93 76 / 60 10 50 0 MCO 95 77 97 76 / 50 20 20 0 MLB 93 77 94 77 / 50 30 30 10 VRB 94 77 96 76 / 50 20 30 10 LEE 93 78 94 78 / 40 10 30 10 SFB 94 77 95 77 / 60 20 30 0 ORL 94 77 95 77 / 60 20 20 0 FPR 94 76 96 75 / 40 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.