textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 159 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Atlantic beaches tonight. This risk remains at least Moderate through the end of this week.

- Gradual warming trend through this weekend. Then a stronger cold front is forecast with a noticeable cool down early next week.

- Dry through much of the week with low rain chances returning late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

Rest of Today-Saturday...High pressure over the western Atlantic near the Carolina coast today will drift eastward into late week. However, additional high pressure will linger at the surface and is forecast to fend off a weak front Friday, preventing it from reaching east central Florida. Mostly dry conditions will prevail through the end of the work week, though a few passing short waves aloft could support a few showers beginning Thursday afternoon along the coast south of Cape Canaveral (PoPs 20% or less). By Friday, some higher moisture (PWATs up to 1.8") looks to build into southern portions of the forecast area from south Florida. Thus, have increased PoPs to 20-30% that day, despite the NBM remaining not as enthusiastic. Dry air lingering aloft should prevent most lightning storm development. Saturday, diminishing moisture will limit PoPs overall to below mentionable.

A warming trend will occur into the weekend. Highs today in the lower 80s are forecast to increase a degree or two each day, reaching the mid-80s by Saturday area wide. Meanwhile, overnight lows look to remain in the 60s, though upper 50s are expected well north of I-4 tonight. Onshore winds 10 mph or less each day through Friday then veer southwesterly Saturday ahead of an approaching front. Winds are expected to become light and variable overnight and will support the threat for some patchy fog into the early morning and commute hours. Confidence is low on the placement of any fog late week. However, tonight the highest chances appear to be along and north of I-4.

Sunday-Wednesday...A low pressure system will dig through the Great Lakes region Sunday, moving northeast through early next week. This feature is expected to drag a strong surface cold front through the local area Sunday night into Monday. Prior to the front, have gone above NBM guidance to include a 20% PoP mention Sunday afternoon, as global models are in generally good agreement that at least isolated showers will be possible. It will be the last warm day through at least mid-week, with fairly light west to southwesterly winds maintaining above normal highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The initial front is forecast to pass quickly southward through the Florida peninsula, with high pressure then becoming reinforced by a secondary front Monday night into Tuesday. Dry conditions look to prevail behind both fronts. Breezy north to northwest winds around 10-15 mph Monday will linger into Tuesday before diminishing. However, the biggest story looks to be a major cool down. High temperatures look to fall to the upper 60s north of I-4 by Monday, with 70s to the south. The coldest day looks to be Tuesday, with highs only reaching the 60s area-wide. Average highs for this time of year range from the upper 70s to lower 80s and forecast temperatures currently approach, but do not reach, record cool high territory. Chilly overnight low temperatures are expected to reach the 40s for most of the area, with the exception of the coast south of Cape Canaveral. Far northern locations of Lake and Volusia Counties could see the lower 40s. Although, breezy winds will make it feel colder.

MARINE

Issued at 159 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through much of the weekend. Onshore flow around 10 kts or less will veer southwesterly into Sunday ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Winds will then increase from the north-northwest Sunday night and into Monday behind the front, becoming 20-25 kts and rapidly deteriorating boating conditions. Seas 3-5 ft will diminish to 2-3 ft by the weekend, but will build rapidly behind the front. Seas up to 7-9 ft are forecast to begin the work week. Conditions will remain mostly dry. However, isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the Atlantic waters and near the coast south of the Cape into late week. Then, isolated showers will be possible area-wide Sunday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 609 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

VFR conds should be the rule through the TAF period. Will monitor the low potential for fog development esp at LEE late tonight through dawn. Otherwise, few showers try to develop on Thu afternoon along the Treasure Coast. Thick clouds envelop much of the area on Thursday but bases should remain above 4 KFT. Some virga may be noted above 10 KFT. Lt/Vrb winds tonight bcmg NE 5-10 KT with few gusts to 15-18 KT on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 61 77 65 79 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 64 80 66 82 / 0 10 10 10 MLB 66 79 69 80 / 0 20 20 20 VRB 66 80 69 82 / 10 20 20 30 LEE 60 80 62 82 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 61 80 64 82 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 63 80 66 82 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 66 80 69 82 / 10 20 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.