textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Isolated showers or a lightning storm drift inland through early evening; coastal showers and isolated storms are possible early Wednesday morning, especially south of the Cape

- Building moisture will lead to increasing shower and storm chances, particularly this weekend into early next week. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out each afternoon/evening.

- Increasing humidity will lead to heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees or higher this weekend into next week; Moderate to Major HeatRisk is likely

- At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents continues. Always swim near a lifeguard!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Now-Tonight...Temperatures are a degree or three cooler today, thanks to a fair amount of cloud cover lingering from this morning. Some sunshine is making it through the clouds as a weak, diffuse sea breeze has started making its way inland. We have seen some showers across the adjacent Atlantic waters all morning, though very few have made it onshore. Through the remainder of the afternoon, partly to mostly cloudy conditions will persist with temps in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees (inland). An isolated shower or storm remains possible, especially west of I-95 and north of I-4. Temperatures tonight will settle into the 70s (near 80 at the coast) as isolated showers develop, mainly after midnight.

Near-surface moisture will be greatest south of the Cape, down along the Treasure Coast. With light steering flow and PW values of 1.8- 2.0" in place, some CAMs are showing locally heavy rainfall (1-2"+) potential in a few spots from Sebastian southward. There is a chance that heavier amounts could fall just offshore, but this will be something to keep an eye on prior to daybreak Wednesday. Lightning also cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure slides east over the Atlantic, placing east central Florida on the western periphery of the surface high by Thursday. East-southeast winds (10-15 mph) Wednesday start to shift even more SSE Thursday afternoon and night. In this timeframe, models continue to disagree on the amount of available moisture, particularly from the Orlando metro toward the coast. Farther inland, greater moisture and instability, along with a sea breeze collision, looks to support isolated to scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. Weak bulk shear and warmer mid level temps appear (overall) less favorable for strong storm development; however, the combination of steep low-level lapse rates and water- loaded updrafts do make a case for not ruling out gusty winds and locally heavy rain. As is with boundary collisions, a non-zero chance for a brief funnel cloud exists, but higher LCLs keeps the tornado threat at bay. Again, the focus would be from mid-late afternoon through the early evening, near or just west of the Orlando metro where a sea breeze collision is projected.

Little change to the pattern is expected on Thursday as onshore flow continues and an afternoon sea breeze develops. There may be an isolated shower near/just offshore of the Treasure Coast in the morning, but this remains out of the official forecast for now. Another round of afternoon/early evening showers and storms is forecast, especially for locations west of I-95, as the sea breeze collision takes place. Again, a lack of shear precludes greater storm organization, but a strong wind gust or heavy rainmaker cannot be ruled out. Temperatures trend warmer both days with less pre- convective cloud cover forecast. Conditions each night will remain warm and muggy.

Friday-Tuesday...Overall moisture builds areawide late week into the weekend as mid level ridging remains in place. Surface flow remains light and variable Friday, turning onshore with the P.M. sea breeze. Light but offshore (SSW) flow is anticipated, prior to sea breeze development, beginning on Saturday. An offshore flow pattern looks to continue into next week as well. This slight change in wind direction would favor a greater chance for showers and storms closer to the east central Florida coast...especially Sunday into next week. The highest coverage will still be focused along the advancing sea breezes and eventual collision, with some push back toward the east coast in the evening.

Along with slightly higher rain chances and moisture comes hotter, more humid conditions. With highs forecast to reach the low 90s each day, heat index values climb into the 100-105F+ range. A Major HeatRisk could develop as early as Friday or Saturday, taking into account the fact that overnight lows/humidity offer little reprieve from daytime temps/humidity. This is something to keep in mind if you have outdoor plans this weekend, as staying cool and adequately hydrated will become even more important to avoiding heat-related illness.

MARINE

Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

High pressure remains in place, supporting favorable boating conditions into the weekend (outside of any showers/storms). East- southeast flow prevails through at least Thursday/Friday before gradually turning more SSW this weekend, prior to the afternoon east coast sea breeze developing. Moisture ramps up, especially Friday onward, leading to increased shower and lightning storm chances. Nighttime rain chances continue with some activity drifting toward the coast at times. With greater offshore flow this weekend, some inland storms may drift east toward the local Atlantic. Seas generally 2-3 ft, locally higher in and around storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR outside of convection. Low chance (20% or less) of SHRA INVOF of the inland terminals this aftenroon-evening as a weak/diffuse sea breeze pushes west, then dry conditions inland overnight. SHRA chances increase to 20-30% along the coast tonight into Wednesday morning. TSRA is generally not expected INVOF of the ECFL terminals today and tonight, but can't be ruled out. Slightly higher chances (20-30%) of afternoon evening SHRA/TSRA Wednesday. ERLY winds 8-12 kts this afternoon diminish after 00Z, becoming light/VRB. Winds wake up from the SE at 5-10 kts Wednesday morning, then shift more ERLY in the afternoon from sea breeze enhancement. Morning cu-field could become MVFR at times before lifting/mixing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 87 73 90 / 20 20 10 20 MCO 74 91 74 92 / 10 40 20 50 MLB 78 88 76 89 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 77 88 74 90 / 20 20 10 10 LEE 75 92 75 92 / 10 40 30 50 SFB 74 92 73 94 / 10 30 10 40 ORL 75 91 74 93 / 10 40 20 50 FPR 76 87 74 89 / 20 20 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.