textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 248 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Hot and humid conditions continue this week with Moderate to Major Heat Risk for all of East Central Florida. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day.

- Lower storm coverage is forecast Wednesday then storm coverage will increase into late week. Scattered to numerous storms from Thursday onward will move toward the Atlantic coast each afternoon and evening, with the potential for a few strong storms. An increase in strong storm potential exists on Friday and into the weekend.

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all central Florida Atlantic beaches into late week. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today-Thursday... KMLB radar imagery shows mostly dry weather across east central Florida except for a few isolated showers over the offshore waters from Brevard county southward. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Analysis charts shows the western Atlantic ridge extended over southern Florida. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with dew points generally in the mid 70s. Drier conditions are forecast today compared to the past few days, however, guidance indicates PWATs as high as 1.8"-2.5" with forcing being the limiting factor today. Scattered showers and lightning are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze converges with west-southwest flow, as well as outflow from previous storms near the coast this afternoon and evening. The east coast sea breeze will strengthen slightly and push further inland on Thursday as a shortwave trough tracks east over the southeastern US and the western Atlantic ridge shifts southeast. The result is an increase in rain shower (40-70%) and lighting storm chances on Thursday areawide across east central Florida, especially for areas along and east of the Orlando Metro. West-southwest winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph are forecast to back south-southeast with the east coast sea breeze, mainly near the coast on Wednesday before pushing further inland on Thursday.

The main hazards with strong storms will be frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-2" with a 2-5% chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 3"). Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s today and the mid 90s on Thursday with maximum heat index values between 102-107F degrees. Above normal (2- 5 F+) to near record low temperatures are forecast. There is a Moderate to Major HeatRisk each day. There is an Extreme HeatRisk for portions of the Orlando Metro and Brevard county on Thursday. A Major and Extreme HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration! Remember to stay hydrated, wear light colored clothing, shift outdoor work away from 10am to 4pm, and take frequent breaks from the heat.

Friday-Sunday... The western Atlantic ridge will shift further east over the western Atlantic as a shortwave trough tracks over the southeastern US and the southwest Atlantic into Friday afternoon and evening. Guidance shows upper level perturbations pivoting along the base of the trough over northern east central Florida on Friday, especially into the afternoon and evening hours which will provide additional lift for strong storms to develop. Meanwhile, a "cool" front is forecast to sag south over northern Florida and northern east central Florida Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered strong storms are forecast Friday afternoon and evening with guidance indicating MUCAPE between 2,000 J/kg-3,800 J/kg, bulk shear between 15-30kts, and PWATs between 1.9"-2.3", coupled with PVA lobes over northern east central Florida. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland, mainly to the east of the Orlando Metro and converges with west- southwest flow, as well as outflow from previous storms. Rain shower (60-90%) and lightning storm chances increase on Saturday before decreasing slightly on Sunday (40-70%).

The main hazards with strong storms will be frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts up to 40-55mph, and heavy rainfall (1-2" with a 2-5% chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 4"). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values between 102-107F degrees and a Major HeatRisk is forecast with an Extreme HeatRisk for portions of the Orlando Metro and Brevard county on Friday.

Monday-Tuesday... Drier conditions are forecast into next week as high pressure develops over the eastern Gulf of America. Scattered showers (30-40/50%) and lightning storms are forecast into each afternoon as a weak east coast sea breeze moves inland and converges with weak west-southwest flow. Above normal (2-5F+) temperatures are expected to continue into next week with a Major HeatRisk.

MARINE

Issued at 248 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today-Thursday... Favorable boating conditions are expected with the western Atlantic ridge extended over southern Florida. Scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms (some of which will have the potential to become strong) are forecast today with isolated to scattered coverage, mainly north of Brevard county on Thursday. West-southwest winds are forecast to back south-southeast into each afternoon at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Seas of 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore are expected.

Friday-Sunday... Favorable boating conditions are expected. Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast into Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening. The potential for a few strong storms exists. Southwest winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are expected to generally back south on Friday and Saturday before veering west- northwest and then east-southeast into Sunday as a "cool" front sags across the waters. Seas to 1-2ft with up to 3 ft offshore are forecast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The evening and early overnight period has remained somewhat active with re-developing showers and ISOLD lightning storms; likely a result of instability, deep moisture, and boundaries galore. Additional convection is moving from WCFL to ECFL and will see if it holds together. Will monitor for "Vicinity" wording and/or TEMPO groups as necessary. Mainly VFR continues outside of convection. Light & variable winds become SW up to around 12 kts on Wed and will "back" onshore 10-15 kts (higher gusts) across the Space & Treasure coasts. While the ECSB will make only minimal and slow movement inland during the afternoon, the WCSB will push fairly easily across the peninsula with ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers & storms. While lower overall coverage is expected, highest PoPs should occur late day/early evening near coastal terminals as SWRLY steering flow takes activity towards the coast and offshore. MVFR (local IFR) with convection. Activity will diminish thru mid evening. "Vicinity" wording inherited for Wed during the day and will entertain TEMPO groups as confidence increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 77 93 77 / 40 20 70 30 MCO 98 77 96 77 / 40 20 60 30 MLB 94 78 92 79 / 40 30 60 30 VRB 94 77 94 78 / 30 30 50 20 LEE 94 78 94 78 / 40 10 40 20 SFB 96 78 96 77 / 40 20 70 40 ORL 96 78 96 78 / 40 10 60 30 FPR 94 76 94 77 / 30 30 50 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.