textproduct: Melbourne

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and lightning storms over the Treasure Coast with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland to the west of US-1. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Analysis charts show high pressure (~1019mb) over the Gulf of America, as well as high pressure (~1021mb) over the southwest Atlantic near the North Carolina coast. Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values up to 102-107F degrees. Dew points are generally in the mid to upper 70s.

Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop through this evening across east central Florida with the greatest chance for showers (50-70% south and west; 20-50% north and east) and storms over the southern and western areas of east central Florida. Rain chances diminish by 9PM. This morning's 15Z XMR sounding shows MLCAPE at 1,655 J/kg, DCAPE at 872 J/kg, 0-6km shear at 7kts, and a PWAT value of 2.02" which suggests the there's the potential for a strong storm or two capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-2" in 30-60 minutes with a 1-in-10 chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 3-4"). East winds will become erratic at times through this evening at 5-10mph. Above normal (~1-4F+) to record lows generally in the mid to upper 70s are forecast overnight.

The Weekend... A mid/upper level ridge with 500mb heights up to 594dm over the eastern CONUS coast is expected to gradually shift east-southeast over the western Atlantic on Sunday. Daily scattered to numerous sea breeze driven showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop each afternoon and evening as collisions occur between the sea breezes, as well as outflow from previous storms, especially from I-4 east-southeastwards. Storm motion will generally be slow and erratic. Guidance indicates MLCAPE up to 1,000-3,200 J/kg, MUCAPE up to 2,000-4,000 J/kg, very weak 0-6km shear, although enhanced by boundary collisions, conditionally unstable lapse rates, and PWAT values up to 2.0-2.4" on Saturday with similar parameters on Sunday. Additionally, guidance shows PVA traversing east central Florida Saturday into Sunday which will enhance lift for strong storms to develop. Thus, there is the potential for a couple to a few strong storms to develop each afternoon and evening capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts up to 40-55mph, and heavy rainfall (1-2" with a 1-in-10 chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 3-4 ") with the potential to result in minor flooding of roadways and low-lying areas (< 5% risk).

A Moderate to Major HeatRisk exists with seasonable to above normal highs in the low to mid 90s and above normal to record lows in the mid to upper 70s forecast. Maximum heat index values up to 102-107F degrees are forecast. Remember to practice heat safety, which includes wearing light colored clothing, taking frequent breaks from the heat, staying hydrated, and shifting outdoor work away from the hours of 10am to 4pm.

Monday-Thursday... Global models diverge in solutions into the next workweek which makes the forecast more uncertain than usual, especially for this time of year. The GFS shows a mid/upper level trough deepening over the eastern CONUS Monday and into midweek while the ECMWF keeps the trough further north with high pressure building over the state of Florida. However, LREF TLE-NH clusters are in fairly good agreement that the trough will not deepen as far as the southern US like what the GFS shows which suggests that the ECMWF solution is more likely to occur. In the aforementioned scenario, high pressure would build over the state of Florida with daily sea breeze and diurnally driven showers and lightning storms into each afternoon and evening. The probability of a Major HeatRisk is generally between 50-90% along and north of I-4 and generally 30-70% to the east-southeast of I-4 Monday with increasing probabilities as heat builds into mid to late week. Guidance even shows the potential for an Extreme HeatRisk (20-40% along and north of I-4) mid to late week next week.

MARINE

Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Currently-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected. Isolated to scattered offshore moving showers and lightning storms in the afternoon and evening, as well as isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and lightning storms in the late morning and early afternoon are forecast. The potential exists for a strong storm or two capable fo wind gusts in excess of 34kts on Saturday. East winds at 5-10kts will veer offshore overnight before backing south-southeast on Saturday. Seas to 1-2ft with up to 3ft over the offshore (20-60nm) waters is forecast.

Sunday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast to become choppy Sunday into Monday. Isolated to scattered offshore moving showers and lightning storms in the afternoon and evening, as well as isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and lightning storms in the late morning and early afternoon are forecast. The potential exists for a strong storm or two capable of wind gusts in excess of 34kts. South-southeast winds are forecast to increase to 10-15kts Sunday evening. Seas of 1-2ft with up to 3 ft over the Volusia county waters are forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Mainly VFR this cycle, outside of sct TSRA/SHRA. Intermittent MVFR CIGs have shown up but most reductions are tied to TSRA, which is beginning to shift toward inland terminals with the ECSB. Generally weak surface and mid-level steering winds mean additional TSRA will form westward along the sea breeze and individual storm outflow boundaries. TEMPOs remain for MCO/ISM/LEE 21-01z with VC elsewhere. Activity diminishes after 02-03z.

Light winds overnight thru Sat. morning with iso SHRA/TSRA forming along the ECSB 17z and beyond. Additional TSRA are expected beyond the TAF period with a sea breeze collision closer to MCO/ISM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 91 76 92 / 0 60 20 70 MCO 77 94 76 93 / 10 70 30 80 MLB 78 91 77 91 / 10 60 20 70 VRB 76 91 76 91 / 10 70 20 70 LEE 78 93 77 93 / 20 60 30 70 SFB 77 94 77 94 / 10 70 20 70 ORL 77 93 77 93 / 10 70 30 80 FPR 75 91 75 91 / 10 70 20 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.