textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Gusty northeast winds will produce rough surf and life- threatening rip currents today. Moderate beach erosion is also possible. Residents and visitors should use caution at the beach and avoid entering the water.

- Scattered, fast-moving showers will reach the coast from the Atlantic and push inland at times. Drier conditions resume Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Hazardous boating conditions will persist through the week with Small Craft Advisories remaining in place for the local Atlantic waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Today-Tonight...Another breezy day is forecast as northeast winds carry fast-moving showers onshore from time to time. Last evening's 00z XMR sounding revealed sufficient low-level moisture below 750- 800 mb, which will continue to support shower activity today (rain chances 20-35%). Despite a slightly weaker pressure gradient today, low pressure off of the Carolina Coast and high pressure situated to our north will support sustained winds 15-20 mph (20-25 mph at the coast) and peak gusts of 25-35 mph. Based on REFS/HREF probabilities less than 10-20% for frequent 35+ mph gusts, we look to fall just short of Wind Advisory criteria. That said, occasionally higher gusts are expected, especially at the coast.

Rough, large breaking waves of 6-10 feet and life-threatening rip currents will make for a dangerous surf zone. Stay out of the water today! A High Surf Advisory and high risk for rip currents continues at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Long period swells will also lead to minor/moderate beach erosion following high tide cycles.

High temperatures may warm by a degree or two compared to yesterday but generally range from the upper 70s north to the low and middle 80s Orlando/Cape Canaveral southward.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Weak mid level troughing will remain over Florida through mid week. High pressure centered well north of us is going to support north-northeast flow with gusty daytime winds (especially along the coast). Peak gusts reaching 20-30 mph are anticipated, especially on Wednesday across coastal Volusia County. The low pressure system over the western Atlantic slowly pulls northward, allowing some drier air to push south across the FL Peninsula Tuesday. The surface-to-700mb layer moistens again on Wednesday, so some isolated marine showers are forecast by Wednesday afternoon/evening. For now, mention of rain making it to the coast is confined to areas from Sebastian southward. Adjustments to rain chances are possible, especially for coastal locations, as medium- range models tend to struggle with these shallow-layer precip patterns.

A High Surf Advisory and high risk for life-threatening rip currents will continue Tuesday, and the high risk for rip currents persists further into Wednesday as well. Entering the water is strongly discouraged!

Thursday-Sunday...Upper level ridging builds across the central U.S. late week, extending from the Rio Grande all the way north to the Great Lakes. Eventually, this upper high gets squeezed and weakened by a developing longwave trough over the Upper Plains Saturday into Sunday. Two surface features to watch from Friday into the weekend are 1) an expanding high across the eastern/northeastern U.S. and 2) developing low pressure along a remnant front that stretches across the Florida Straits and Bahamas. As currently presented, the pressure gradient strengthens and makes for a windy/gusty weekend ahead. Rough surf, dangerous rip currents, and the risk for additional beach erosion would also result. Rain chances grow Friday night onward as moisture pools along the aforementioned front, especially from the Cape southward.

Daytime temperatures will change little from days 4 through 7 (upper 70s to low 80s), with slightly warmer overnight lows due to strengthened onshore flow Friday onward. Overall, values look to run a few degrees cooler than mid-October normals.

MARINE

Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Fresh to strong northeasterlies continue today, maintaining 8-12 ft seas nearshore and 10-14 ft seas in the Gulf Stream. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible, particularly in the nearshore waters from Sebastian Inlet northward. A Gale Warning remains for the Volusia waters until 8 AM EDT (Small Craft Advisories for the remaining marine legs), replaced by a Small Craft Advisory from that point forward.

A low pressure system off the Carolina Coast begins to lift northward through mid week, allowing the pressure gradient to modestly weaken. Still, fresh onshore breezes are forecast with gusts 20-25 kt at times through Thursday. High pressure to the north and developing low pressure near the Bahamas on Friday restrengthen northeasterly flow. Wind gusts may approach gale force by this weekend. In short, Small Craft Advisories could continue for much of the week and into next weekend. Seas generally 7-11 ft Tuesday and 6-9 ft Wednesday-Friday.

Scattered showers will continue today before drier air briefly moves overhead Tuesday and during the day Wednesday. Isolated showers return, mainly south of the Cape, from Wednesday night through Friday morning. Low pressure organizing along a remnant front Friday into the weekend will help boost rain chances (40-60%), along with the potential for an isolated storm or two.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Scattered onshore moving showers are ongoing this morning, with some showers pushing inland. Have maintained VCSH everywhere at 12Z. Northeast winds remain gusty along the coast this morning 10-15KT with gusts 20-25 KT. NE winds will increase to 15-20 KT with gusts 20-30KT by mid morning. Scattered showers will continue to move onshore and inland through the day. VCSH continuing for all sites through 00/01Z. Have added PROB30 for 3SM SHRA BKN030 from 14Z till 16Z across the interior (except for LEE), and from 14Z till 17Z from DAB to VRB. Any lingering showers will move out of the area by 23Z across the interior, and by 01Z along the coast. Winds decrease to 10-15 KT with gusts to around 20 KT possible at times, especially along the coast Monday evening, and around 10 KT with gusts up to 20 KT possible Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 65 77 65 / 30 0 0 0 MCO 81 63 80 62 / 30 0 0 0 MLB 82 70 81 68 / 30 10 0 0 VRB 83 69 82 68 / 30 10 10 0 LEE 78 59 78 59 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 80 62 79 62 / 30 0 0 0 ORL 80 63 80 63 / 30 0 0 0 FPR 83 69 82 67 / 30 10 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552-555-572- 575.