textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues into early this week. Residents and visitors to Central Florida's Atlantic beaches should stay out of the ocean.

- Higher rain coverage and increasingly strong onshore winds are forecast next week, as a front moves through the state. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible along the coast.

- Increasingly hazardous beach and boating conditions are expected into mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure over the western Atlantic gets shunted eastward today, as a low pressure system moves through NE Canada and drags a cold front through the Southeast US. With a slackening pressure gradient, east-southeast winds finally ease today compared to the last several days. However, will still see winds 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph, along the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Elsewhere, winds 5-10 mph. Higher moisture overspreads the area today, with PWATs increasing to 1.3- 1.5" by the afternoon. A few onshore-moving showers this morning. Then, scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon, with the highest chances over the interior, where the sea breezes are expected to collide in the mid to late afternoon. PoPs today 30-50%. Can't rule out a few stronger storms along the collision, with 500 mb temperatures around M10-M11 C and drier air lingering in the mid- levels. The main threats with any storms today will be wind gusts to around 45 mph, small hail, and lightning strikes. Highs will be warm over the interior, reaching the mid to upper 80s. At the coast, onshore flow keeps temperatures in the lower 80s.

Models suggest steering flow becomes increasingly southwesterly this afternoon and into this evening ahead of the front. CAMs support this, showing convective activity drifting back towards the coast in the evening hours. The forecast reflects this, with PoPs 20-30% persisting through sunset, before drifting offshore into the late evening. Drier conditions are then forecast for the remainder of the overnight hours. Light offshore winds are forecast overnight, with lows in the lower to mid-60s.

Monday...The aforementioned front slows Monday as it outruns its upper level support, coming to a crawl over the Florida peninsula. Deeper moisture builds across the local area into Monday afternoon, with PWATs up to 1.5-1.7". A good portion of Monday morning looks to remain dry. Then, increasing support along the front and high moisture are forecast to lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms by the afternoon. The highest coverage looks to be over the interior, where initially sea breeze driven convection along the west coast is carried inland along southwesterly steering flow, where it meets convection developing along northeasterly winds. PoPs 60-70%, with a few strong storms once again possible due to 500 mb temperatures near M10-M11 C. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible along the collision, though overall accumulations are expected to remain around 1-1.5". Highs in the lower 80s along the coast and mid- 80s inland. Rain chances increase into Monday night, as upper level support increases. PoPs increase to 70-80%, with the highest coverage along the coast. Northeasterly winds Monday remain around 10-15 mph along the coast, lower inland. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-60s.

Tuesday-Thursday...Models disagree a bit on just how far southward the front will make it, where it stalls, and when. But, the overall consensus is that the feature will linger near the area through Thursday. Deep moisture persists over the Florida peninsula through the period. Single recent model runs show possibly some lower moisture during the day on Wednesday, but the overall theme remains the same: rain. There are increasing concerns for locally heavy rainfall mid-week. Strong high pressure develops over the Mid- Atlantic, creating a tight pressure gradient offshore of the Southeast US between the ridge and the boundary. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet strengthens aloft, providing enhanced support. This creates a classic setup for convergent bands along the coast, as windy onshore flow opposes westerly flow aloft.

Coverage of showers and embedded storms is forecast to be high, with PoPs 60-80% Tuesday through Thursday. Rainfall totals are still hard to pin down, as it appears to be multiple rounds of rainfall due to convective bands, which are currently beyond reach of the CAMs. Therefore, narrowing down where the heaviest totals will fall or just how much is difficult. NBM 72 hr 90th percentile accumulations near 6" along the coast. Therefore, totals of 3-4" with locally 5"+ appear reasonable along the coast Tuesday through Thursday, with 1-3" for the interior. Multiple rounds of showers are forecast through the period, with coverage and accumulations peaking during the overnight hours, which coincides with both the convective maximum over the Atlantic waters and peak convergence along the coast, as winds slacken over land areas overnight. This rainfall will certainly help bring some relief from ongoing drought conditions. However, too much rain too quickly could lead to flooding issues, especially with any persistent banding of heavier showers or storms. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall exists both Tuesday and Wednesday along the coast.

Breezy to windy onshore flow returns, with winds 15-20 mph and gusts 20-30 mph. Higher winds should be expected along the coast, where a few gusts could approach 40 mph on Wednesday. Winds will then remain elevated each night. High coverage of clouds and showers will lead to below normal temperatures in the 70s through Thursday. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s.

Friday-Sunday...Late week and into the weekend holds greater uncertainty, as models diverge on features off of the Southeast US coast. This will have implications for how much moisture lingers over the Florida peninsula and, therefore, rain chances. At the very least, coverage of showers and storms does look to diminish, regardless, though the question will be by how much. For now, have scattered showers and storms diminishing in coverage each day from Friday into the weekend. What is more confident is the continued breezy onshore winds, with high pressure remaining over the eastern US, though winds will not be quite as strong as mid-week, as the old boundary washes out and the pressure gradient relaxes. With less coverage of clouds, expect to see high temperatures creep up each day, though onshore flow will keep highs in the lower 80s for the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Poor boating conditions early this morning become increasingly favorable into the afternoon, as seas up to 6 ft offshore diminish to 4-5 ft. High pressure weakens over the area today, with ESE winds 10-15 kts. A few to scattered offshore moving showers and storms will be possible this evening and into the overnight hours.

A weakening cold front moves into the local waters Monday, where it will linger through mid-week. A period of unsettled conditions will follow, with high coverage of showers and storms. NE winds 5-15 kts Monday with seas 3-5 ft. Conditions then become hazardous to dangerous into late week, with strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic leading to windy onshore winds and near gale-force gusts. Headlines are likely, as seas build to up to 11-15 ft.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 114 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Aside from some ocnl MVFR and light showers close to the Treasure Coast terminals, all looks mostly quiet through midday today. VFR should be predominant, but will watch for any lower CIGs or patchy fog at sunrise. This afternoon, a few showers/storms should form on the advancing sea breezes. Timing for MCO is somewhat difficult but favors 05/21Z - 06/02Z. Confidence still too low for TEMPOs. SE breezes 5-15 KT with a few gusts to 20 KT along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 84 65 79 63 / 30 30 70 80 MCO 85 67 83 66 / 50 30 70 80 MLB 82 67 81 66 / 30 30 70 80 VRB 82 66 81 65 / 30 30 70 80 LEE 87 65 83 63 / 40 20 70 70 SFB 87 66 83 64 / 50 30 70 80 ORL 86 67 84 65 / 50 30 70 80 FPR 82 65 82 65 / 30 30 70 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.