textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening across areas from Orlando metro and Cape Canaveral northward.

- Chance for showers and storms will continue each afternoon and evening this weekend through Monday. A few stronger storms will continue to be possible each day.

- Highs remain above normal through the weekend and peak heat indices are forecast to reach the mid 90s to around 100F (locally).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Current-Tonight...Only isolated pockets of low stratus early this morning and our northern coverage warning area (CWA) remained mainly dry as well with arrival of weak frontal boundary strewn across the central FL peninsula. WNW/NW winds 5-10 mph will become onshore 10- 15 mph at the coast this afternoon with this trend continuing inland with the local sea breeze regime. Colliding boundaries and a modest increase in moisture will promote SCT (OCNLY NMRS) showers and lightning storms this afternoon/evening mainly across our northern CWA, with greatest coverage (30-60pct) Orlando-Titusville northward. Steering flow is out of the WSW so activity could push back toward the coast this evening. A few storms could be locally strong to marginally severe with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-50 mph - perhaps one or two storms to 60 mph locally, hail to coin-size, and heavy downpours. Brief tornado potential remains less than 2%. Greatest coverage and intensity likely 4pm-9pm. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches may also occur with a few storms. Due to ongoing drought conditions there will be the potential for fire-starts from lightning strikes, especially away from the main precip core.

The increase in cloud-cover and precip chances will keep max temps down slightly, but they will still be above normal, ranging from the M-U80s at the coast and L-M90s inland. The added humidity will lead to peak heat index values in the M-U90s, which will maintain an elevated heat risk, especially for individuals sensitive to heat. Warm and humid conditions will continue overnight, as temperatures are only forecast to fall into the L-M70s.

Sat-Mon...The weak boundary begins to lift back northward this weekend, though ample moisture remains across the area and will promote ISOLD-SCT (20-40%) showers/storms this weekend. Greatest coverage will focus near the coast and for areas Melbourne northward on Sat, then a bump upward nearly areawide (30-60%) on Sun, highest PoPs still closer towards the coast and Cape northward. Each aftn and evening there will remain the threat for a few strong storms.

Heat impacts continue to build, as max temps reach the L-M90s and peak heat index values continue in the U90s to around 100. Warm and humid conditions will continue each overnight period, with lows in the 70s providing little relief. These hot and humid conditions will produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the area this weekend.

Another weak front approaches and moves through the area Mon night. Shower and storm chances increase ahead of this feature (30-70%), highest coverage toward the coast with activity, again, pushing toward the coast/offshore during the late aftn/evening. Potential for strong to ISOLD severe storms continue. Hot and humid conditions persist on Mon (U80s-L90s) even as cloud-cover increases.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified.

Tue-Thu...Weak front is forecast to shift south of the area, but will stall across south Florida before lifting back north through midweek. Behind the front, winds quickly veer onshore as high pressure builds offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Tue, then gradually becoming southerly by Thu. Lingering moisture and instability north of the front on Tue will continue a chance for showers and storms, mainly southeast of the I-4 corridor (30-60%). There remains some uncertainty on rain chances through midweek, as some of the guidance still keeps lingering showers and isolated storm potential through Wed Melbourne south, but for now forecast trends drier through this timeframe. Temperatures return closer to seasonal values on Tue (in the 80s) behind the front, but then continue to rise through midweek.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Current-Tonight...A weak front across the northern waters will remain quasi-stationary, but begin to slowly lift northward towards daybreak Sat morning. NW winds will veer onshore this afternoon with sea breeze development and progression inland, gradually becoming southerly this evening and overnight at least for near the Cape southward. Wind speeds will remain less than 15 kts, with seas 1-3 ft.

Will need to monitor for offshore-moving convection this evening, esp near Cape northward as activity over land pushes back to the coast. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe. Primary storm threats include strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 35-50 kts, hail to coin-size, and frequent lightning strikes. Boaters should keep an eye toward the west and if darkening skies threaten, head immediately back to port.

Sat-Tue...The aforementioned front lifts back north this weekend, with winds generally out of the S/SE 10-15 kts, but veering offshore in the evening/overnight. Offshore winds may increase briefly late each day/evening to 15-20 kts promoting temporary poor boating. Seas continue 2-4 ft but may be locally higher invof ISOLD-SCT showers & storms (aftn/eve). A few storms locally strong with primary concerns of lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Another weak front approaches the area Mon and moves across the local waters Mon night/early Tue. SW winds ahead of the boundary at 10-15 kts, become N/NW post-frontal Mon overnight/early Tue, then shift NE/E during the day Tue increasing to 15-20 kts. Coverage of offshore-moving showers and storms increase Mon afternoon/evening to numerous (NMRS), and a threat for a few stronger storms will continue. Seas build to 3-5 ft Tue, further to 6-7 ft well offshore Tue evening/night, slowly subsiding again thru midweek. Lingering moisture and instability behind the front may still lead to ISOLD- SCT showers and storms into Tue.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 738 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026 Convection ongoing this evening across east central Florida, with strongest activity in vicinity of DAB expected to move offshore into the Atlantic through 01Z. Ample instability will promote development of additional showers and isolated thunderstorms through 04Z, concentrated along the sea breeze collision near KSFB/KMCO/KISM corridor. Otherwise, will watch for some stratus (MVFR ceilings) to develop across these areas toward sunrise. Low chances of afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday along the east coast (KDAB - KMLB) though not enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

A weak front stalls across northern portions of east central Florida before lifting back northward into the weekend. This boundary will increase moisture and generate isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms (occasionally numerous in coverage), mainly during the afternoon and evening hours through the weekend and into early next week. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe each day as this activity pushes back toward the coast and offshore. Greatest rain chances will be near to north of Orlando this afternoon and evening (up to 40-60%) and north of Melbourne Saturday (up to 30-40%). West-northwest winds 5-10 mph will become east- northeast this afternoon behind the inland moving sea breeze, increasing up to 10-15 mph. Winds then become south-southwest Saturday around 10 mph, with the east coast sea breeze switching winds to the southeast at the coast and increasing up to 10-15 mph.

While the increase in moisture will largely keep Min RH values above critical values, we may see RH values drop as low as the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior, south of Orlando this afternoon. Min RH values range between 35-40% for much of the interior on Saturday and 40-45% on Sunday. Temperatures remain above normal for much of the area into this weekend, with added humidity leading to peak heat index values around 95-100 degrees each afternoon. Dispersion values will be Fair to Generally Good this afternoon and then become Very Good to Excellent on Saturday, returning to Generally Good for Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 92 73 90 / 20 40 20 60 MCO 74 95 75 93 / 10 20 20 40 MLB 77 93 78 90 / 0 20 20 40 VRB 75 94 76 92 / 0 10 20 40 LEE 73 92 73 92 / 20 10 10 30 SFB 73 95 73 93 / 20 30 10 50 ORL 74 94 75 93 / 20 30 10 40 FPR 75 94 76 92 / 0 10 10 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.