textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms continue today and Thursday, with isolated strong storms possible.

- A cool front moves through tomorrow, ushering in breezy to windy north to northeast winds that will lead to hazardous beach and boating conditions from late week through the weekend.

- Drier and somewhat cooler air will lower rain chances and lead to a slight taste of Fall this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Today-Tonight...Low offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast strengthens today, pulling a front southward into north Florida where it will stall near to just north of the area. Scattered to numerous showers and storms (rain chances 40-70%) forecast with the inland moving sea breeze this afternoon, as a very moist airmass remains in place (PW values 2-2.3"). This deeper moisture will keep DCAPE values rather low, around 500 J/kg, and temps aloft are relatively warm, around -5 to -6C at 500 mb, so strong storm threat remains low. However, can't rule out gusty winds up to 40-50 mph and frequent lightning with a few storms. More likely hazard from storms or heavier showers will be locally heavy rainfall of 1-3" which may produce minor flooding, as steering winds will be weak. Convection diminishes this evening, but isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and a storm or two will be possible, mainly north of the Treasure Coast into tonight.

Seasonably warm and humid conditions continue today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s at the coast and upper 80s to low 90s inland. Peak heat index values will range from 98-102F. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Thursday-Friday...Mid/upper level trough digs southward across the eastern U.S. into late week, as surface low offshore the eastern U.S. continues to deepen and lift northward. This will shift the front southward across the area tomorrow. Breezy to windy N/NE winds develop behind the front tomorrow and continue into late week, which will lead to hazardous boating and beach conditions. Sustained wind speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph are forecast north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast tomorrow, with highest wind speeds/gusts focused at the coast. Sustained winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 25-30 mph then spread southward on Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast again on Thursday (PoPs 40-60%) with passing front. Drier air will then lower rain chances into Friday, with only low end rain chances (20-30%) focused along the coast.

Highs in the mid to upper 80s on Friday, drop just slightly Friday into the low to mid 80s for much of the area. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s Thursday night and then as drier/cooler air works into the area will see lows in the mid to upper 60s for much of the region Friday night. Some coastal locations near to south of the Cape, however, may remain in the low 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday...Drier and slightly cooler conditions forecast into the weekend through early next week, giving us our first taste of Fall. While highs still reach into the 80s, overnight lows drop into the 60s for the first time since early to mid June (see climate section for last dates below). Noticeably lower humidity will also make conditions more comfortable through the period. Mostly dry conditions forecast this weekend, with a gradually increase in rain chances through Tuesday as moisture slowly builds. Breezy N/NE winds may continue along the coast into Saturday, but winds subside through Sunday and into early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions will generally continue today through tonight, with the main threat being scattered showers and storms developing across the waters. A front will progress southward into north Florida today, and near the northern waters this afternoon as it stalls. N/NE winds across the Volusia County coastal waters increase to 10-15 knots, but farther south speeds are forecast to remain 5-10 knots, becoming E/NE into the afternoon as sea breeze develops. Seas will range from 2-3 feet today, increasing up to 4 feet north of the Cape into tonight.

Thursday-Sunday...Hazardous boating conditions will develop into Thursday as front progresses southward across the area. N/NE winds increase to 15-25 knots, with gusts to 30 knots, which will build seas to 7-12 feet through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for the Volusia County waters starting at 8 AM Thursday morning and will expand southward across the waters through the day into early Thursday evening. The SCA continues across the entire waters through Friday, with additional expansions needed into the weekend as seas will be slow to subside. N/NE winds will diminish to around 10-20 knots Saturday and around 10 knots on Sunday, but seas are forecast to linger up to 7-9 feet into Saturday and 4-6 feet into Sunday.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast with the frontal passage into Thursday, and then drier air building in behind the front will lead to decreasing coverage of this activity Friday. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 637 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Satellite imagery shows possible stratus SW of KISM, and a couple other spots inland. So far these haven't impacted the ECFL terminals, but will need to keep an eye on the next few hours. Winds generally light/VRB through morning, then outflow from nocturnal TS offshore the Southeast Seaboard is forecast to arrive at the northern coast (KDAB-KTIX) after 17Z, shifting winds NE around 10 kts. To the south (KMLB-KSUA) the east coast sea breeze may shift winds ERLY 5-10 kts before also becoming NERLY as the outflow overruns the area. There is potential for SHRA to develop as early as 15Z, but not enough model agreement to support changing timing, and staying with previous 16Z-18Z start time. Initially ISO-SCT TS along/ahead of the outflow/sea breeze will become SCT- NUM while moving inland/south. If the west coast sea breeze can develop, the collision will be well west of the ECFL terminals.

Increasing onshore flow after 23Z could support ISO SHRA INVOF the coastal terminals, some of which may make it to the inland terminals. VFR-MVFR CIGs are forecast to develop across the peninsula overnight. Chances for MVFR remain low (20% or less), so keeping TAFs VFR at this time. NRLY winds begin to increase Thursday morning ahead of an approaching front, with windy/gusty conditions expected by the afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Last date the temperature was below 70 degrees (F) this year at select sites:

DAB: June 8th (67 deg) LEE: June 8th (68 deg) SFB: June 8th (67 deg) MCO: June 8th (69 deg) MLB: June 8th (68 deg) VRB: June 11th (69 deg) FPR: June 11th (69 deg)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 87 75 86 73 / 40 40 50 40 MCO 89 74 88 72 / 60 20 50 0 MLB 86 75 87 74 / 50 20 50 20 VRB 87 73 88 74 / 50 20 60 20 LEE 90 74 88 71 / 50 20 40 0 SFB 88 74 87 72 / 50 20 50 0 ORL 89 75 88 73 / 60 20 50 0 FPR 87 73 88 73 / 60 20 60 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ555-575.