textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Scattered to locally numerous afternoon and evening showers and lightning storms will persist into this week. A few strong storms will be possible each day, producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Currently-Tonight...Low level offshore flow persists but is generally weak and should see the east coast sea breeze push inland near to just west of the I-95 corridor. Already starting to see some isolated to scattered showers/storms developing across the area with daytime heating. However, greatest storm coverage looks to be toward late afternoon/evening, generally near to southeast of I-4 corridor and near/inland of I-95 where sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions are favored. Westerly steering winds decrease through late day, and while some shifts in storms back to the coast will occur, storm motion may still be slow and erratic across the area.

Deep moisture (PW 2-2.2") and slow storm motion will lead to torrential downpours with persistent storms, producing a quick 2-4 inches of rainfall locally in a 60-90 min period. While this will mostly produce minor flooding issues, there may be an isolated spot or two that sees totals between 4-6 inches, which may lead to a localized flash flooding threat. Therefore, a Marginal Risk (5-14%) of excessive rainfall exists across much of east central Florida this afternoon and evening. 15Z sounding from the Cape shows some pockets of drier air aloft, which will also support strong gusts to 40-50 mph and frequent lightning from a few stronger storms. However, as is usual with summer convection, can't completely rule localized damaging gusts to 60 mph from a storm or two. Temps at 500mb are around -6 to -7C, which may also lead to isolated reports of small hail.

Convection diminishes and shifts slowly offshore through late evening, with drier conditions forecast overnight. Remaining warm and humid with lows in the mid to upper 70s for much of the area tonight.

Monday-Wednesday...Subtropical ridge axis continues to remain south of the area through early to midweek, continuing offshore (W/SW) low level winds across the area. PW values of 1.8-2.0 inches will remain sufficient enough to support scattered to locally numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Should still see the east coast sea breeze form each afternoon, but the offshore winds should stall the sea breeze near to just inland of the I-95 corridor, with greatest coverage of convection focusing toward the coast. This activity will shift offshore each day, with a few stronger storms continuing to be possible. Main storm threats will continue to be strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall producing minor flooding.

Hot and humid conditions will persist, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values reaching 100-107 degrees each day. Little relief will occur overnight, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. This will all contribute to a Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the region each day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

Thursday-Sunday...Mid-level ridge across the western Atlantic will nudge northwest across Florida through late week before shifting back south as a passing disturbance aloft crosses the southeastern United States. At the surface a weak frontal boundary will slide southward toward north Florida and stall, keeping ridge axis either near or just south of the region. This will continue to produce scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms each day, focused toward the eastern side of the Florida peninsula. Low level winds may be able to become more southerly into late week allowing the east coast sea breeze to push a little farther inland and focusing late day boundary collisions west of I-95. However, an offshore steering flow will still help push scattered showers/storms back to the coast and offshore through each evening.

No significant change to the heat into late week and weekend, with highs still above normal in the low to mid 90s and humid conditions still producing mostly 100-107 heat index values each day. This will continue a Moderate to Major HeatRisk each day.

MARINE

Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Mostly favorable boating conditions forecast to continue through the upcoming work week. Subtropical ridge axis will remain south of the waters, leading to an offshore flow pattern through at least midweek. W/SW winds in the morning will become S/SE into the afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze forms and shifts inland each day. Wind speeds will generally be less than 15 knots, but may briefly increase to 15-18 knots offshore each evening. Seas will range from 1-3 feet.

Main concern for boaters will be for scattered offshore moving storms, primarily from mid afternoon through the evening hours that will continue to be a threat each day (including through this evening). Main storm threats will be frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 34 kts, and torrential downpours. Winds and seas will be locally higher in the vicinity of any storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

East coast sea breeze has developed, but offshore (WSW-SW) flow 5-10 kts is slowing the inland push along the Space and Treasure Coasts, and pinning the boundary to the coast to the north. Winds will be shifty at KTIX-KSUA before becoming onshore (SSE-SE) 5-10 kts. ISO SHRA have developed INVOF of KVRB-KFPR, and a few SHRA ongoing here and there across the rest of ECFL. Low confidence in convective evolution this afternoon-evening as chaotic storm boundaries will have a significant influence in TS development. General trends are for TSRA/SHRA to gradually increase in coverage, with highest coverage along the sea breeze collision near the coastal corridor, then gradually shift offshore. Chances at KMCO-KSFB high enough to continue TEMPOs. Have also added TEMPOs for Treasure Coast terminals, and PROB30 for KMLB. TS expected to dissipate after 02Z, but could linger as late as midnight. Quiet overnight once TS dissipates or moves offshore. Rinse repeat Monday as offshore flow favors a sea breeze collision and high TS chances on the eastern side of the peninsula.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 92 77 92 / 60 60 30 50 MCO 76 93 76 93 / 40 40 20 50 MLB 77 93 77 93 / 60 60 40 60 VRB 75 93 75 93 / 50 60 40 60 LEE 78 91 77 92 / 20 30 10 30 SFB 77 93 77 94 / 50 50 20 50 ORL 77 92 77 93 / 40 40 20 50 FPR 75 92 74 92 / 40 60 30 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.