textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Lower than normal rain chances this afternoon and evening, but storms that manage to form could produce frequent lightning strikes, strong to locally damaging winds, small hail, and torrential downpours.

- Above normal heat this afternoon with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s resulting in peak afternoon heat indices 102-107 and widespread Major HeatRisk impacts.

- Confidence in rain chances and heat impacts Wednesday and Thursday are lower than normal, and residents and visitors should monitor the forecast for changes. Regardless, heat and rain are expected to return into the weekend and next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Current-Tonight...Oppressive heat and humidity continue with widespread Major HeatRisk impacts across ECFL this afternoon. Highs generally widespread in the M-U90s with peak heat indices 102-107. Latest sounding from KXMR rather "chilly" aloft at -8.1C. Forecasted drier air will filter into our northern zones later today with highest PWATs 1.75-1.95" expected from near Melbourne south. PoP chances across the I-4 corridor near 20%, with 30-50% southward later this afternoon/evening. SW/WSW flow 10-15 mph will keep the ECSB from develop along the Volusia coast, with minimal development and push inland from Brevard County southward. Still expecting a sea breeze collision late generally south of Orlando with scattered showers/lightning storms forecast. With drier air in place will need to monitor for isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts in a few storms, as well as frequent lightning, small to coin-size hail, and torrential downpours with localized flooding in play. Will also monitor for this evening northward across at least northern Volusia, as weak shortwave troughing approaches and some CAMs showing convection pushing southward into the area with a late bump back up in moisture here. Storm movement generally back toward the coast with occasional erratic movement from chaotic boundary collisions. Activity diminishes into mid-evening with thinning clouds overnight.

Overnight lows continue in the 70s with conditions humid. Fog chances overall relatively low but will monitor for some smoke settling across southeast Orange County from recent wildfire.

Wed-Thu...The surface ridge axis remains stymied southward with light offshore flowing continuing, except for the afternoon/evening where it "backs" onshore with sea breeze formation and push inland. The mid-levels will have light northerly to variable winds with occasional impulses traversing the area. A weak surface boundary will slide southward toward the coverage warning area on Wed. Models now suggest drier air will remain north of Lake/Volusia counties with ample moisture for SCT to locally NMRS (30-60%) diurnal convection both days. A few storms could become strong with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds 40-55 mph locally, small hail and torrential downpours leading to minor/nuisance flooding. Highs still very warm L-M90s with peak heat indices 101-107, resulting in widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts. Conditions remain muggy at night with mins in the 70s.

Fri-Mon...Weak ridging aloft drifts from the western Atlc back west across the FL peninsula and into the northern Gulf into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure ridging moves north into the central peninsula early in the period, but is forced back south late in the weekend and early next week as another weak front drops into the Deep South. Predominant SW/S flow (albeit weak) continues into the weekend, but "backs" onshore each afternoon with sea breeze formation and penetration into the interior. Diurnal showers/storms, isolated to scattered thru the period. Highest coverage over the interior late day and early evening, with weak/erratic steering flow. Forecasted HeatRisk continues widespread Major with pockets of Extreme impacts on any given day as both highs/lows remain above normal with stifling humidity. Will monitor as peak heat indices approach Advisory criteria into the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through the week and into the weekend as the Atlantic high weakly extends towards Florida. A weak front will drop near central FL keeping the surface ridge axis suppressed over South Florida through Thu, continuing offshore (WSW- SW) flow. The front departs and the ridge lifts north towards central FL Fri into the weekend, shifting flow more southerly at times but generally remaining offshore. Winds "back" onshore (SE-E) in the afternoon into the evening as the east coast sea breeze develops, gradually pushing farther inland each day as offshore flow weakens. Wind speeds 5-15 kts, occasionally pushing over 15 kts offshore in the overnights. Seas 1-3 ft. Most showers and lightning storms expected to stay inland, but a few could move across the intracoastal waters in the evenings, and isolated overnight convection can't be ruled out.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 752 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected outside of storms with high pressure (~1021mb) over the GOM. W winds at 5-10kts are forecast to become light & variable before backing ESE at the coastal TAFs into the PM THU. Expect VCTS this PM through 01Z at KMLB/KVRB/KFPR w/ TEMPO TSRA at KMLB/KVRB through 01Z. VCTS returns after 17Z/18Z THU with PROB30 and/or TEMPO groups for TSRA into the PM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 91 75 92 / 20 30 10 30 MCO 77 94 76 95 / 10 60 20 60 MLB 77 91 77 91 / 30 60 30 50 VRB 76 93 76 92 / 20 40 30 50 LEE 78 95 76 95 / 20 30 10 30 SFB 77 95 75 95 / 10 60 20 40 ORL 78 93 76 94 / 10 60 10 50 FPR 76 93 75 92 / 20 40 30 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.