textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 333 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Turning noticeably cooler tonight behind a cold front; Windy along the coast

- Hazardous boating conditions tonight into Monday - Rain chances increase midweek followed by sharply colder temperatures late week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Thru tonight...Cold front is slicing across central FL this afternoon. Warm ahead of the front with record high temp at Vero Beach (86F). Gusty northwest to north winds behind the front will advect noticeably cooler air with lows from the mid 40s across Lake/intrr Volusia to the low and mid 50s most elsewhere. Immediate Treasure coast will hold in the 60s due to slight onshore (N/NE) wind component. Pressure gradient will tighten as high pressure builds over the area and this will produce windy conds along the coast and breezy inland. Wind speeds 20-25 mph, gusting near 30 mph will occur at the coast.

Mon-Tue...Winds will veer onshore and gradually decrease early this week as high pressure over the deep South elongates and extends offshore the Carolina coast. Max temps Mon are forecast to be near to slightly below normal in the afternoon, ranging from the mid to upper 60s Orlando north and in the low to mid 70s to the south. Lows Tuesday morning will be similar to the night prior, but with lighter winds. Afternoon highs Tue will recover a little more reaching the low to mid 70s for most locations, except upper 60s across much of Lake and Volusia counties. It will be mostly dry early this week, but the developing onshore flow should produce isolated Atlc showers, a few of which could push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast.

Wed-Sun (modified)...Moisture and rain chances increase into midweek well ahead of a strong cold front moving into the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday and as it pushes through the area Thursday. PoPs increase to 40-50% Wednesday, 50-60% Wednesday night and continue 20-40% on Thursday, mainly in the morning. This rainfall will be welcome/beneficial due to the much drier than normal conditions of late, but rainfall totals don't look to be enough to alleviate any of the ongoing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions across east central FL. Current ECMWF ensemble guidance only gives around around a 40-50% chance for totals greater than 0.50 inches from Wednesday-Thursday. Strong/gusty west winds develop Thu behind the front as low pressure deepens near the mid-Atlc coast. Dry conditions then forecast behind the front Friday and Saturday. An active, fast-moving weather pattern will bring another cold front across the area next Sun, keeping temps below normal and only a small chance for showers.

Highs will be near to cooler than normal through midweek from increasing cloud cover/rain chances and as strong cold front moves through Thursday, ranging from mid 60s to low 70s for much of the area on Wednesday and in the 60s Thursday. It will then turn sharply colder behind the front Thursday night, with lows in the 30s much of the area and freezing temperatures possible mainly northwest of I-4. Wind chill values early Friday morning are currently forecast to drop into the mid and upper 20s with low to mid 30s in Martin county. This would require a Cold Weather Advisory for most areas. Highs on Friday are forecast to hold in the upper 50s north of Orlando with lower 60s elsewhere. Not quite as cold Friday night since winds will be much lighter though temps will reach the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs on Saturday rise into the upper 60s to low 70s which is very seasonable. Another cold front Sunday knocks us back down a little below normal.

MARINE

Issued at 333 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Thru Tonight...Cold front Hazardous boating conditions Boating conditions will start off favorable this morning, but boaters should be prepared for conditions rapidly deteoriating and becoming hazardous this afternoon behind a passing cold front. Winds will become northerly and quickly increase to 20-25 knots behind the passing front through this afternoon, with these speeds persisting into tonight. This will build seas up to 6-9 feet into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at 1 PM this afternoon across the nearshore waters of Volusia and Brevard counties expanding southward to the Treasure Coast waters late this afternoon.

Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist Mon as winds veer north-northeast and gradually decrease from 15-20 knots to 10-15 knots in the afternoon. Seas will linger up to 7-9 feet across the Gulf Stream Monday. Boating conditions then gradually improve into Tuesday, with N/NE winds decreasing to 5-10 knots and seas falling to 3-5 feet. Boating conditions will remain generally favorable through Wednesday and then a strong cold front will move through the area Thursday, with W/NW winds increasing and seas building 7-9 FT offshore once again. The offshore flow, though, will suppress seas nearshore. High pressure will build over the area Friday allowing winds and seas to subside.

Isolated showers will continue to be possible into early this week across the waters, with coverage of showers and the potential for a few storms increasing into midweek.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 620 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

MVFR to IFR CIGs continue from MLB southward along the coast as the cold front moves south of east central Florida. Anticipate these reductions improving by 03Z. NNW winds around 10 knots persist, becoming gusty at times overnight. Guidance is a bit less enthusiastic about wind gusts, so brought winds down a bit at the terminals. Winds veer to out of the NE after 08Z, remaining around 10 knots through the rest of the forecast period. Mostly dry tomorrow, though there is a low chance of showers at the Treasure Coast terminals. Confidence too low to include at this time but will continue to monitor trends and amend as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 50 65 53 68 / 0 10 10 10 MCO 52 69 54 71 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 56 70 58 73 / 0 10 20 20 VRB 59 71 58 74 / 10 20 20 20 LEE 45 65 49 68 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 49 67 52 70 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 51 67 53 71 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 59 72 58 74 / 10 20 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.