textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Trending drier today, but isolated to widely scattered showers possible. Lightning storms and additional flooding are not expected.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions to last through the upcoming weekend, including life-threatening rip currents, even as surf appears to improve.

- A warm and dry work week is on tap as high pressure builds over East Central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Today-Tonight...Center of high pressure and much drier air over the eastern seaboard sinks south closer to Florida, loosening the pressure gradient some and reducing rain chances. While onshore (northeast) winds will be more relaxed compared to previous days, will still see some gusts to around 30 mph along the coast and 25 mph inland in the afternoon from sea breeze enhancement. PWATs ranging from around 0.75" (below the 25th percentile) up north to 1.25" (near the 75th percentile) down south gradually decrease through the day. Isolated showers remain possible (PoPs 20%) from the Cape south throughout the day and night in the higher moisture, and the marine layer will be deep enough to support isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs also 20%) further north but mainly limited to the afternoon and evening that could push as far inland as the Orlando Metro. Very dry air in the mid-levels will limit deep convection. Lightning storms are not expected, and while some heavier downpours will be possible, quick motion to the southwest will limit flooding potential. Warmer today thanks to the lower rain chances and reduced cloud cover, with afternoon highs picking up to the U70s-L80s. Lows tonight in the U50s-U60s.

The Weekend...While overall the weather will have become much more pleasant, poor to hazardous beach and marine conditions will continue. Surf will appear less rough and more inviting, but life- threatening rip currents will remain present and entering the water at the beaches is not advised. High pressure over the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic is reinforced by additional surface high pressure from the northern US, and ridging aloft building over the Gulf. The ridge axis gradually sinks closer to ECFL, but remains north of the area continuing gentle to moderate onshore (northeast to east) flow, again becoming gusty in the afternoons once the sea breeze develops. Forecast currently calls for rain chances to decrease to 10% or less across the area as PWATs drop to less than 1" (generally below the 25th percentile), but can't completely rule out a few showers forming over the Atlantic waters moving onshore. Afternoon highs ticking up a degree or two each day, but still in the U70s-L80s. Same with overnight lows, warming a bit but remaining in U50s-L60s.

Next Week...Surface high pressure moves offshore into the subtropical Atlantic, but remains in control of local conditions through most of the week as the ridge axis stays anchored over North Florida. A dome of ridging aloft continues to build over the Gulf and Florida through mid-week in response to a deepening trough over the western US, before flattening late in the week as the trough shifts eastward. The surface ridge axis drops south a bit towards Central Florida late in the week and next weekend in response to the trough and an associated surface front, both likely falling short and remaining north of the area unless better forcing than currently forecast can be found. Between the very dry air (PWATs remaining below 1"), lighter onshore flow, and subsidence, very low (10% or less) rain chances and gradual warming will continue through most of next week. Afternoon highs tick up from the U70s-M80s Monday to the L-U80s (near to slightly above normal), possibly flirting with the L90s well inland (well above normal) by Friday. Overnight lows above normal in the 60s. Could see some low rain chances return late in the week if the ridge axis drops far enough south to turn flow southeasterly and deliver higher moisture.

MARINE

Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Today-Sunday...Hazardous boating conditions, particularly seas in the Gulf Stream, will persist across the Central Florida Atlantic waters through the weekend. The pressure gradient loosens some as the ridge axis of high pressure over the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic shift south towards Florida, allowing winds from the northeast to east to diminish some to 10-20 kts with higher gusts. Seas slowly subside from 7-11 ft early this morning to 5-8 ft early Saturday morning, and 4-7 ft early Sunday morning, then rebound to 5-8 ft Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Central Florida Atlantic waters through 6 AM Saturday morning, and continues for all Gulf Stream segments including nearshore Brevard and the Treasure Coast through 8 AM Monday. Small craft should continue to exercise caution in the Volusia nearshore waters after the Advisory expires. Rain chances decrease as drier air moves in, but the marine layer will remain sufficiently deep to support isolated to widely scattered showers through at least Saturday. However, lightning storms are not expected.

Monday-Tuesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions linger into Monday. High pressure shifts into the subtropical Atlantic while the ridge axis remains anchored over North Florida, allowing the pressure gradient to further loosen and ease easterly winds a bit more to mostly 5-15 kts, but occasionally pushing towards 15-20 kts south of the Cape. Seas up to 7 in portions of the Gulf Stream and up to 6 ft closer to shore south of the Cape could linger into part of the day Monday before finally subsiding to 3-5 ft Tuesday morning. Mostly dry conditions forecast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 126 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Conditions forecast to be mainly VFR, but cigs may drop to MVFR at times, especially with any isolated onshore moving showers. This shower activity is forecast to be more persistent south of KMLB over the next 24 hours, but may then redevelop farther north into late this morning and afternoon. Have VCSH remaining in the TAFs for KVRB-KSUA, and then running from 14Z to 02-03Z for KDAB- KMLB and 18Z-00Z for KMCO/KISM/KSFB. Will not include any TEMPO groups at this time as coverage should remain rather low (rain chances ~20%).

E/NE winds remain breezy/gusty (12-15 knots, gusts to 20-25 knots) along the coast from KMLB southward overnight and through today, before finally diminishing some into late Friday evening. Farther north and inland NE winds have diminished to 5-10 knots, but will increase and become breezy and gusty as well into the afternoon before diminishing into Friday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 63 78 63 / 20 10 0 0 MCO 79 62 80 63 / 20 10 0 0 MLB 77 65 78 67 / 20 20 0 0 VRB 78 65 78 65 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 80 60 82 60 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 79 60 81 61 / 20 10 0 0 ORL 79 62 81 62 / 20 10 0 0 FPR 78 64 78 64 / 20 20 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552-555-570- 572-575.