textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 156 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Cooler but pleasant today with lower rain chances mainly focused along the Treasure Coast. Breezy onshore winds will cause poor to hazardous boating conditions and a high risk of life- threatening rip currents at our beaches.

- Deeper moisture returns this weekend through at least Monday, leading to scattered showers and storms. There is a low chance for a few strong, gusty storms with locally heavy rain and coin- sized hail.

- A strong cold front is slated to push across the state late Monday, leading to much cooler weather for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Generally quasi-zonal flow extends across CONUS this morning. A shortwave, currently over New England, is responsible for a cold front that passed through Central Florida on Thursday evening. This front is expected to undergo frontolysis over South Florida today. Unseasonably rich moisture will be shunted over the southern third of the state today as drier air briefly tries to filter into Central Florida.

A split flow regime sets up over the weekend as a weak branch of the subtropical jet becomes somewhat more defined over the southern Gulf. Within this jet segment, a shortwave passing from Texas into the Gulf will help to back mid-level flow southwesterly. Anomalously high moisture (PWs of 125-150% of normal for mid-March) will quickly be advected back over the northern two-thirds of the peninsula in advance of this feature. This moisture transport will also be supported by east to southeasterly flow off the Atlantic.

12/12Z cluster analysis of the grand ensemble reveals relatively strong agreement in the overall pattern over the United States from late this weekend and into next week, leading to moderate to high confidence in the timing and strength of weather features affecting Florida through at least Tuesday. By Sunday night, the polar jet over the Midwest is expected to buckle in response to a powerful PV anomaly diving from the Northern Rockies into the Mississippi Valley. This pattern amplification and eventual meridional flow will be supported by the PNA flipping positive. This is typically characterized by a trough over the East and ridging across the West.

A cold front, associated with the gathering trough and embedded shortwave to our northwest, should be arriving in Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday. Above-normal moisture should remain in place until the front passes, leading to periods of unsettled weather. Behind the front, a modified batch of unseasonably cold air should reach the state on Tuesday. From mid to late next week, guidance supports a record-shattering early season heat ridge over the Desert Southwest and a lingering but weakening trough along the Eastern Seaboard. The strength and positioning of this trough will dictate when significant moisture clears the area. As high pressure moves off the Carolinas by around Wednesday, surface parcels should begin to originate off the Atlantic, leading to slow temperature moderation thereafter.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

A sharp mid-level moisture gradient will reside somewhere between Melbourne and West Palm Beach today, delineating the northern edge of rain and storm chances on our Friday. Dry conditions are expected along the I-4 corridor, with rain chances increasing to 30-40% along the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee regions. We will need to keep an eye out for any bands of heavy rain that try to form over our far southern communities today. While a few hi-res models support this, the threat appears low with the higher chance over South Florida.

We should see quite a bit of sun over the northern two-thirds of the area, leading to pleasantly warm temps (upper 70s to low 80s). Breezy east to northeast winds are forecast, especially at the coast where a few gusts up to 25 mph can be expected.

Late tonight, a few showers and storms are forecast to drift northward over mainly the western half of the peninsula. These have a low chance of clipping portions of the Kissimmee Basin late tonight.

Weekend...

Increasingly unsettled weather appears to be on the way to Central Florida. Moisture increases from the south as subtropical energy impinges on the state from the Gulf. Temperatures remain above normal.

Ample moisture in the lower troposphere, combined with the daily sea breeze circulation, should spark scattered showers and storms on Saturday. Timing is still somewhat uncertain, but moisture advection may support showers in the morning hours before coverage drifts toward the west in the afternoon.

Rain and storm chances become more enhanced on Sunday as a weak disturbance arrives over the state. Antecedent drought conditions limit the threat of excessive rainfall, save for any storms that sit over urban corridors for an extended period of time. Some of our early-arriving hi-res guidance for this weekend supports a max rainfall potential of 2-4" in isolated spots, with areal averages in the 0.5-1.25" range.

While chances appear low and isolated, the environment may support a few strong storms with coin-sized hail and wind gusts of 40-50 mph this weekend, particularly on Sunday.

Monday - Tuesday night...

A strong cold front will approach the state during the early portion of the work week, leading to another round of showers and storms on Monday. If the timing of the front coincides with peak heating and instability, a few strong and gusty storms may become a threat. Expect breezy and unusually warm conditions ahead of the front.

The front is most likely to pass through here sometime late Monday or very early Tuesday, with colder air quickly filtering in behind it. Statistical guidance suggests that highs in the mid 80s on Monday will give way to highs in the low 60s to low 70s on Tuesday (north to south). Lows are forecast to dip as cold as the low/mid 40s northwest of Orlando, with the chilliest conditions Tuesday night.

Wednesday - next Friday...

The big question mark will be whether rain chances will linger through mid-week. Around 30-40% of members retain additional energy at the base of a slow-moving trough over the Eastern U.S., which would support lingering shower chances. A small majority of the members suggest a cleaner frontal passage with drier conditions from late Tuesday onward.

Most (but not all) ensemble members are dry by Thursday and especially next Friday. Slow temperature moderation is forecast. Below-normal highs in the upper 60s-low 70s on Wednesday should rise closer to normal (mid-upper 70s) by next Friday. There is downside potential for temperatures mid-week if clouds and showers are more prevalent. Expect some fine-tuning to this part of the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 156 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue, with seas worsening this morning especially in the Gulf Stream. The cold front that passed over the area will stalls over South Florida before dissipating late today. High pressure quickly moves from the mid-Atlantic offshore into the western Atlantic, allowing onshore flow to resume over the Central Florida waters. Winds slowly veer from the southeast to south later this weekend and into Monday ahead of a cold front arriving around Monday night.

Nearshore seas 4-6 FT today, up to 8-9 FT in the Gulf Stream where Small Craft Advisories will exist all day. Winds relax slowly to around 8-12 KT from the ENE by late tonight. On Saturday, ESE winds 10-15 KT, becoming SE on Sunday 12-17 KT. Seas 3-5 FT this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Breezy NE to E winds gusting 20-22 knots will bring isold -SHRA across coastal terminals this morning. North wind initially over the interior terminals (incl. MCO) will quickly veer E/NE by 14Z-15Z. CIGs will oscillate between BKN025-035, in and out of MVFR at least through 14Z. CIGs as low as BKN015 will occur in SHRA. Additional SHRA should develop across southern sections invof SUA this afternoon. Moisture lifting northward tonight should produce scattered SHRA from SUA-VRB and have inserted VCSH there overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 62 78 65 / 10 20 30 40 MCO 80 66 80 67 / 10 30 50 40 MLB 78 67 80 67 / 10 40 50 50 VRB 80 65 81 65 / 30 40 50 50 LEE 82 64 81 65 / 10 20 40 30 SFB 80 64 80 65 / 10 30 40 40 ORL 81 65 80 66 / 10 30 40 40 FPR 80 64 81 65 / 30 40 50 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-570- 572-575.