textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 214 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the waters today, becoming more favorable into midweek. A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today.

- Mostly dry conditions should prevail today through tomorrow, but isolated onshore moving showers and sprinkles along the coast will be possible.

- A gradual warm-up forecast through the rest of the week, with temperatures becoming above normal into late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Today-Wednesday...High pressure across the Southeast U.S. will shift eastward and offshore today, with ridge axis remaining north of the area and continuing an onshore flow across the region. A weak inverted trough will also exist near the coast today, but will gradually diminish. Sufficient low level moisture combined with the E/NE flow may still lead to isolated showers or sprinkles across the waters that are able to push onshore along the coast today through tomorrow. However, rain chances remain low, around 10-20%, with mostly dry conditions forecast otherwise. Should see a little more sunshine today under partly cloudy skies, but cloud cover looks to increase again into Wednesday from building mid to high level clouds. Despite the increase in cloud cover into midweek, a gradual warm-up should continue, with highs today in the low to mid 70s and in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 50s inland to upper 50s/low 60s along the coast, and then will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the entire area Wednesday night.

Thursday-Friday...A cold front will move from the central to eastern U.S. Thursday, with the boundary weakening as it approaches and moves through central Florida late Friday. Moisture increases slightly as winds veer S/SE into Thursday, with PW values rising to 1.3-1.4 inches. This may allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop, mainly Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. However, PoPs only increase to around 20-30 percent during this timeframe. Instability looks to remain quite low over land, with MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg, so lightning storms look unlikely. However, there may be a little more instability over the waters for a few storms, mainly over the gulf stream waters late Thursday into Thursday night. Frontal passage then looks to remain mostly dry late Friday.

Highs will be above normal into late week, reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Thursday night will be mild in the low 60s and drop to the 50s to low 60s most locations (except upper 40s NW of I-4) behind the front into Friday night.

Saturday-Monday...Front will shift south of the area and fade into the weekend, with high pressure building in behind this boundary and pushing off the southeast U.S. coast. This will quickly veer winds onshore, with highs remaining mostly above normal (in the upper 70s to low 80s most locations) through early next week. May see isolated showers over the waters that can push onshore through the weekend, but otherwise it looks to remain mostly dry.

MARINE

Issued at 214 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure pushes off the Southeast U.S. coast today, with a weak inverted trough near the east coast of Florida fading through today. Winds are forecast to be out of the E/NE around 10-15 knots across much of the waters today, increasing up to 15-20 knots offshore of the Brevard County and Treasure Coast waters into tonight. Boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous due to lingering seas up to 6-8 feet. A Small Craft Advisory continues across the Gulf Stream waters through early afternoon, and then gradually is scaled back to just the Treasure Coast waters for late afternoon/early evening. Small craft will need to exercise caution across the nearshore waters of Volusia and Brevard counties through at least this morning, for seas up to 6 feet.

Isolated showers and sprinkles will continue to be possible across the waters in the continued onshore flow today into tonight.

Wednesday-Saturday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic remains north of the waters midweek, continuing an onshore flow and leading to more favorable boating conditions as seas fall to 3-5 feet and wind speeds remain 10-15 knots. Winds veer to the S/SE Thursday and SW Thursday night as a weakening cold front moves through the Southeast U.S. and toward FL. The front then moves across the waters late Friday becoming N/NW and then quickly veering onshore into Saturday as high pressure builds in behind the front. Wind speeds look to be no greater than 10-15 knots through late week and into the weekend, with seas potentially building up to 6 feet well offshore Friday afternoon into Friday night behind the front.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible across the waters mid to late week, with greatest rain chances (up to 30- 50%) Thursday/Thursday night ahead of the approaching front. Lightning storm potential looks low for the time being, but some of the guidance is indicating a few storms may be possible, mainly across the Gulf Stream waters late Thursday into Thursday night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 611 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Currently VFR at coastal terminals. Inland, stratus that developed early this morning has socked in KLEE and is encroaching on KMCO and the other I-4 terminals. Based on current trends expecting IFR-LIFR CIGs to overrun the Orlando area terminals by around 12Z. Models are playing catchup, decreasing confidence some, but call for gradual clearing after 13Z and VFR conditions around 14Z, which is supported by the current environment. Mainly VFR conditions the rest of the day. ISO onshore moving showers could periodically impact coastal terminals, briefly dropping VIS to less than 3SM. Marine strato- cu expected to remain at or above BKN035, but could drop to MVFR in bands of showers. NNW-NE winds 5-10 kts this morning veer through the day, becoming NE-ENE at around 10 kts by the afternoon, then becoming light NNE-NE tonight, except along the southern coast remaining Erly 5-10 kts. Environment becomes more favorable for fog across the north tonight, but chances are currently very low (10% or less).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 70 56 74 61 / 20 20 10 10 MCO 71 57 75 62 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 72 61 75 63 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 73 60 76 63 / 10 10 20 20 LEE 71 53 75 59 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 71 55 75 60 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 71 56 74 61 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 74 60 76 62 / 10 10 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ572.