textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of east central Florida through 8 PM for peak heat indices up to 110F.

- Hot conditions will persist through this weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices up to 110F possible. Additional Heat Advisories cannot be ruled out.

- Rain and storm chances increase through this weekend and into early next week as moisture improves across east central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Tonight-Saturday...High pressure at the surface and aloft remains in place across the Florida peninsula, with the ridge axis draped across central Florida. This has resulted in southerly flow locally, which has supported moisture advection northward towards east central Florida. GOES Total PWAT imagery indicates values of 1.8-2.0" across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, with drier air situated northward. The east coast sea breeze has developed and will continue to push inland through the remainder of this afternoon and into the overnight hours, with isolated to scattered shower and storm development anticipated primarily across the Treasure Coast and far western portions of the forecast area. Some isolated activity has already started across the Treasure Coast. Rain and storm chances across these areas range between 20-30%, with less than 20% chances across the remainder of east central Florida. Dry air aloft from Saharan dust will help limit some convective development, but any storms that do develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and brief heavy downpours resulting in quick rainfall accumulations of 1-2", locally higher in some locations. Activity will push westward through the afternoon and into this evening, with mostly dry conditions forecast through the remainder of tonight.

Saturday, the high pressure at the surface and aloft remains in place, with continued moisture advection northward the result of persistent southerly flow. Rain and storm chances increase across east central Florida, reaching 30-60% areawide. A return to the more typical diurnal pattern is forecast, with a sea breeze collision across east central Florida driving a majority of convection. Sufficient surface-based instability and modest low- level lapse rates will support the development of strong storms Saturday afternoon and evening, with lingering dry air aloft supporting gusty winds at times. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and brief heavy downpours will be possible. Activity will diminish into the evening and overnight hours.

Heat will continue to be a concern through the remainder of today and again on Saturday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of east central Florida through 8 PM tonight, with highs remaining on track to reach the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices up to 110F possible. Similar conditions are anticipated once again on Saturday, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s. There is a high likelihood that another Heat Advisory will be needed. Practicing heat safety will be key in order to prevent heat- related illness. Adequate hydration, frequent breaks in the shade or air-conditioned buildings, and wearing lightweight, lightly colored clothing is strongly encouraged for those spending extended periods of time outdoors through the remainder of today and on Saturday. Little overnight relief is anticipated, with conditions remaining muggy in the 70s.

Sunday-Thursday...Broad mid-level ridging and the surface Atlantic high will remain in place across the Florida peninsula through Sunday. By Monday and into early next week, a mid-level trough slowly moves across the southeastern US, with its associated surface cold front drifting southward. The surface Atlantic high will weaken and shift slightly south as the boundary approaches, with the mid-level trough and surface boundary forecast to stall just north of east central Florida. While persistent southwest to west flow will drive increasing moisture across east central Florida through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, the approaching boundary will also further boost moisture across the area. This in turn will lead to continued near-normal rain and storm chances of 30-60% across east central Florida, with the highest chances primarily focused across northern portions of the forecast area. Activity looks to follow the typical summertime diurnal pattern, with sea breeze driven convection anticipated each afternoon into the evening hours. Predominant west-southwest flow will keep the sea breeze pinned closer to the east coast, hence the greatest rain chances through the extended period favoring eastern portions of the Florida peninsula. It remains too early to determine exact storm threats, but lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be possible. Activity will diminish into the late evening hours, pushing offshore across the local Atlantic waters overnight.

Temperatures on Sunday will remain hot in the mid to upper 90s areawide, with peak heat indices 105-110 possible. Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecast to continue on Sunday, so practicing heat safety will be key through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will moderate ever so slightly into next week, but are still forecast to remain above normal values. A close eye will be kept on peak heat indices through the extended, but overall trends suggest values generally remaining below Heat Advisory criteria into early next week. Muggy conditions will persist every night across east central Florida, with lows in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into early next week. Broad high pressure across the Atlantic will remain in place through at least Monday, shifting southward into mid week as a frontal boundary approaches and stalls just north of the local waters. Mostly dry conditions persist through tonight, with a return of isolated to scattered showers and storms through this weekend. The greatest rain and storm chances are anticipated along with the approach of the frontal boundary towards the middle of next week. Southwest to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots persist through the forecast period along with seas of 1-3 feet.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 746 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Isolated showers are ongoing around MCO this evening with scattered to numerous showers and storms across the western side of the state. Have maintained VCTS for the interior sites through 01Z. Dry conditions through the overnight hours. SE winds behind the east coast sea breeze this evening will become light and variable overnight. Winds will become SW at around 5 KT by mid morning on Saturday before turning SE and increasing to 6-12KT into the afternoon with the sea breeze. Scattered showers and storms are forecast to form along the sea breeze Saturday, and have included VCTS starting at 16/17Z for TIX-SUA, and 20Z for all the interior sites and DAB. Have not included any TEMPOs at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites today and Sat:

Site July 10 July 11 Daytona 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 97 (2022) 96 (2020) Fort Pierce 96 (1981) 99 (1980)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 95 76 94 / 10 30 30 60 MCO 77 97 77 97 / 20 50 30 50 MLB 78 93 77 93 / 10 30 30 40 VRB 77 93 75 94 / 10 40 30 20 LEE 78 96 78 95 / 30 60 30 50 SFB 77 97 77 96 / 10 40 30 60 ORL 77 97 78 95 / 10 50 30 50 FPR 76 93 75 94 / 10 40 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.