textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 340 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Isolated showers today, increased rain chances tonight into Thursday morning as a strong cold front pushes through

- Below normal temperatures from Thursday onward with sub- freezing temperatures and wind chills Friday morning; a Freeze Watch has been issued for much of the area - Brief warmup on Saturday is followed by another cold front Sunday into Monday, producing cold mornings and cool afternoon temperatures

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Today-Tonight...Temperatures this morning are starting out a bit milder than yesterday, ranging form the mid 50s north to the upper 60s and lows 70s along the Treasure Coast. Clouds continue to form as the low/mid levels find some added moisture, advecting northward from south Florida. A stationary front is beginning to lift north from the Florida Straits, and later this morning it is forecast to stretch from near Cape Canaveral to Lake Okeechobee. Developing low pressure off the northeast Florida coast will help to shift this front seaward by the afternoon, taking rain chances with it.

Through the morning hours, isolated to scattered showers are possible, especially closer to the coast (20-35% chance). Locations that do catch a quick sprinkle or shower will likely only see a couple hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, expect a good amount of dry time. Westerly winds increase, occasionally gusting 15-20 mph. There will be some breaks in the clouds here and there, especially south late this afternoon, but sunshine will be obscured by the clouds for many through the day. High temps align closely with the NBM 50th percentile, or just a touch warmer, reaching the upper 60s north of I-4 to the low/mid 70s farther south.

From midnight onward, a fast-approaching cold front and sufficient moisture ahead of it will support scattered shower development. Instability parameters are minimal to none, so lightning storms are not anticipated. The QPF ranges from 0.10" to 0.25" areawide, which is in better agreement with ensembles this morning. Given that some CAMs are a bit more aggressive, isolated amounts to 0.5" cannot be ruled out. These amounts aren't likely to help the D0-D1 drought conditions much, but it is something. Rain looks to linger through daybreak, at least for central and southern portions of the area. Colder air starts to spill south early Thursday morning, helping morning lows settle in the 50s for the majority of ECFL (upper 40s in northern Lake/Volusia).

Thursday-Friday...Lingering showers push south and east rather quickly Thursday morning, making for a drier afternoon. Breezy to gusty northwest winds (gusting 20-30 mph) behind the front will usher in much colder and drier air. Early day clouds are forecast to clear out by mid to late afternoon with model soundings showing PW less than 0.2" at that point. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the 60-degree mark north of I-4, while the rest of ECFL hovers in the low to mid 60s (closer to 70 degrees in Martin County). Temperatures slide quickly through the 50s and 40s after sunset, and some interior locations may already be in the upper 30s around midnight.

Overnight lows are forecast to plummet into the upper 20s over northern Lake and Volusia counties, in addition to rural locations west of I-95. Near to below freezing temps are forecast for a large portion of the area, so a Freeze Watch has been issued (excluding Coastal Brevard/Indian River/St. Lucie or Martin counties). When you factor in a 5-10 mph northwest breeze, wind chill values will likely reach the 20s to low 30s across all of ECFL Friday morning. Many locations will experience sub-30 degree wind chills for at least 2-4 hours. Thus, a Cold Weather Advisory will be needed in future forecast updates. Bring pets inside Thursday evening, protect sensitive plants, and bundle up as you head out the door Friday morning.

Despite plenty of sunshine, Friday afternoon will remain on the cold side with highs staying in the 50s from Osceola/northern Brevard northward (low 60s south). Winds lighten quickly as high pressure builds over the FL Peninsula. While we largely lose the wind chill factor Friday night, temperatures are still forecast to settle into the 30s and 40s, with a few spots approaching the 32-degree mark in northern Lake and Volusia counties early Saturday morning.

Saturday-Tuesday...Frost development cannot be ruled out Saturday morning, though models this cycle have backed off on overall coverage. This is something we will keep an eye on over the next couple of days. Broad mid level troughing, centered over the Upper Midwest Saturday morning, will begin to deepen and rotate eastward on Sunday. On Saturday, temperatures recover into the 60s and low 70s, if only for one day. Another cold front is forecast to approach on Sunday and move through the area by Sunday night. For now, moisture is lacking in most model sets, so we maintain a dry FROPA. Prepare for another cooldown to start next week with lows Monday morning approaching the freezing mark in a number of locations (rural interior and north of I-4), along with wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. High pressure builds overhead by Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing temps to climb back into the 60s and low 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 340 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions exist this morning until westerly winds pick up in the afternoon. Small craft should exercise caution in the offshore waters later today for winds around 15-20 kt. Seas will remain 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast, generally increasing in coverage by tonight as a strong cold front approaches from the north. An isolated lightning storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Stream. As this front pushes south on Thursday morning, hazardous boating conditions develop quickly. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued, beginning for the offshore waters before sunrise and expanding to the nearshore waters by mid morning Thursday. Northwest winds 20-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt (occasionally near gale force well offshore) are forecast to build seas up to 6-10 ft Thursday night.

High pressure builds overhead Friday, allowing winds to more quickly subside as seas take a bit longer to fall (mainly in the Gulf Stream). Favorable conditions are maintained through Saturday before another front approaches on Sunday, building winds and seas (to 7 ft offshore). Guidance was bit more aggressive and based on the winds, stayed on the conservative side of the wave forecast for the time being Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1236 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

MFVR CIGs are forecast to develop later tonight into Wednesday morning, mainly from ISM to TIX northward from 08Z through 14/16Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Light and variable winds will become westerly and increase to 5-10 KT by 15Z, increasing to around 15 KT in the afternoon with gusts of 20-25 KT especially along the coast. Crosswind issues may be encountered Wed at MCO. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast through the day and into Wednesday night. Have included VCSH everywhere starting 17Z across the interior, and starting 09/11Z along the coast. No TEMPOs at this time. Winds will then become light once again after 23Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions return late Thursday into Friday behind a strong cold front. Breezy to gusty conditions Thursday afternoon subside by Friday, though humidity values fall to near critical levels Friday afternoon across interior east-central Florida. Dry conditions are forecast through the weekend and into early next week, as another cold front pushes through Sunday night into Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 67 49 59 30 / 40 60 20 0 MCO 69 54 60 33 / 30 60 30 0 MLB 73 53 65 33 / 40 60 40 0 VRB 75 53 67 34 / 40 50 50 0 LEE 67 50 58 30 / 30 60 20 0 SFB 69 51 60 31 / 30 60 20 0 ORL 69 53 60 34 / 30 60 30 0 FPR 76 53 67 33 / 40 50 50 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ555.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ572-575.