textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Aside from patchy morning fog, tranquil weather continues through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures. A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Atlantic beaches of Central Florida.

- Scattered to numerous showers and a few storms return on Wednesday; the potential exists for isolated strong storms. A few additional showers are forecast from late Thursday into early Friday along a cold front

- The coolest air so far this autumn season is expected to arrive this weekend. From Greater Orlando and north, there is a 30-40% chance of wind chills reaching the upper 30s Saturday and Sunday morning.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry conditions across east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate mostly sunny skies. Temperatures are currently seasonable in the upper 70s to mid 80s with comfortable humidity with dew points in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Analysis charts show high pressure (~1025mb) to the northwest of east central Florida over the Deep South. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight with seasonable to above normal lows in the upper 50s to low 70s. Light and variable to calm winds combined with a weak radiation inversion will result in the potential for patchy fog along and north of I-4 tonight (mainly between 4AM-8AM) with visibility reductions to 1 miles or less. Remember to slow down and use your low beam headlights if you encounter fog.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Rain chances increase slightly on Tuesday across areas south of Melbourne with weak onshore flow in place and high pressure over the Deep South. A weak shortwave is expected to traverse the Deep South on Wednesday which will provide lift for scattered to numerous showers and isolated to widely scattered lightning storms. The latest deterministic and RRFS guidance suggests that the potential exists for strong to marginally severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A southern branch of the polar front jet is forecast to strengthen over northern to central Florida during the aforementioned time period with a jet maxima of around 100kts combined with moderate CAPE values, conditionally to absolutely unstable mid level lapse rates, 500mb temperatures at around -10C to -12C, high bulk shear, and sufficient PWAT values. The primary hazards will be occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-55mph (less than 5% chance for an isolated wind gusts to 60mph), small hail, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3" in 60 minutes). Additionally, there is the potential for patchy fog north of I-4 Wednesday morning. Expect seasonable afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with seasonable to above normal lows in the upper 50s to low 70s.

Thursday-Sunday... Guidance has come into better agreement for late week and into the weekend; deterministic models, as well as the LREF-ensemble clusters indicate that a strong low will deepen across the Deep South and Florida Thursday and Friday. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough is forecast to move across east central Florida on Thursday with isolated showers mainly across the Treasure Coast. The main cold front is then expected to move east-southeast across east central Florida Thursday night into Friday. Although currently rain chances are low for Thursday and Friday, the potential exists for rain chances to increase as we get closer to late week with the NBM recently having a low bias in precipitation due to the transition to the beginning of the dry season. Temperatures are expected to cool each day with slightly below normal highs on Thursday forecast. The coldest air of the season is expected Friday and over the weekend with temperatures expected to reduce to up to 10-15F+ degrees below normal Friday and through the weekend. Wind chills have the potential to reach near cold weather thresholds (40F degrees) Friday night and Saturday night mainly north of the Treasure Coast.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating and dry conditions are expected with high pressure to the northwest across the Deep South. Expect north-northeast winds at 4-8kts. Seas to 3-4ft and 3-5ft offshore (up to 6ft over the Volusia to Brevard county offshore waters).

Tuesday-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast to become hazardous Thursday and Friday. Isolated showers are forecast on Tuesday south of Melbourne with scattered to numerous showers and isolated to widely scattered lightning storms on Wednesday into Thursday. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts to 34kts or greater. Light and variable to east winds at 5-10kts are forecast to turn offshore Wednesday before increasing to 15-25kts on Thursday. Seas to 2-4ft nearshore and 3-5ft offshore are forecast to increase up to 5-8ft offshore on Friday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution Thursday night into Friday offshore.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 624 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Dry conditions and mostly VFR through the TAF period. Some guidance is indicating patchy fog may be possible along and north of the I-4 corridor. However, confidence is not high. So to show that CIGs may go down, have added SCT008 starting at 09Z and going through 13Z across the interior terminals. Otherwise light and variable winds overnight with winds becoming onshore and increase to 5-10 KT along the coast in the afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue to remain steady or slowly rise over the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) has reached Major flood stage early this morning, with Geneva (GENF1) forecast to approach Major flood stage by the weekend. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 82 66 82 / 0 0 10 40 MCO 64 84 69 83 / 0 10 10 50 MLB 68 82 69 83 / 0 10 20 60 VRB 68 83 69 84 / 0 20 20 60 LEE 62 83 67 82 / 0 0 10 20 SFB 63 84 68 83 / 0 0 10 40 ORL 64 84 68 83 / 0 0 10 50 FPR 67 82 68 83 / 0 20 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.