textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Hazardous beach and marine conditions persist into Sunday with elevated wave heights, a high risk of rip currents, and rough surf continuing. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- Dry conditions are forecast to continue through the remainder of the weekend and into Monday along with seasonable afternoon temperatures.

- Rain and storm chances increase Tuesday onward as moisture returns to the area, with a slight trend upward in temperatures towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Through Tonight...A nor'easter positioned near the Mid Atlantic has continued to gradually lift northward, with high pressure slowly building across the southeastern US. The pressure gradient across the Florida peninsula has slowly slackened through the day, with north-northeast winds remaining around 10 to 15 mph, strongest along the coast and enhanced locally by the diffuse east coast sea breeze. Aside from some fair weather cumulus, skies are mostly sunny with drier air helping to limit shower development. This is anticipated to persist into the evening and overnight hours, with no mentionable rain or storm chances in the forecast. Afternoon temperatures remain on track to peak in the low to mid 80s, with low humidity keeping conditions mild. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s, coolest across the interior west of I-95. At the beaches, a high risk of rip currents will persist through the remainder of today into the overnight hours, along with breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet. Entering the surf is not advised.

Sunday-Monday...As the nor'easter continue to lift northward and barrel into the New England and Mid Atlantic region this weekend, locally, surface high pressure and a dry air mass will continue to settle across east central Florida. The pressure gradient weakens, with light and variable winds anticipated Sunday into Monday, though areas along the coast may become more onshore during the afternoon hours with the development of a weak, diffuse east coast sea breeze. Rain and storm chances are anticipated to remain near zero each day as the drier air mass helps limit development, with mostly sunny skies forecast through the period. Temperatures are forecast to remain seasonable on Sunday afternoon in the mid 80s, warming slightly into the mid to upper 80s on Monday. Overnight temperatures remain in the 60s. Overall, conditions look favorable and even pleasant across east central Florida over the next couple of days.

While the weather will be favorable across the area, if heading to the beaches, conditions won't be quite as favorable surf-wise. Lingering seas will produce poor to hazardous beach conditions, with a high risk of rip currents continuing into Sunday and likely Monday. Rough surf with breaking waves of 3 to 5 feet will continue on Sunday, falling to 2 to 3 feet on Monday. Entering the ocean through Monday is strongly discouraged due to the poor conditions.

Tuesday-Friday...A broad mid-level trough shifts southward across the southeastern US and towards the Florida peninsula mid to late next week. At the surface, moisture slowly begins to increase as a broad, weak disturbance lifts northeastward across Cuba, with another broad, weak disturbance lifting north across the Gulf late next week. This will translate to increasing rain and storm chances locally, increasing from 20-40% on Tuesday from Orlando southward to 30-70% Wednesday onward areawide. Onshore flow will prevail through the extended period, becoming enhanced along the coast as a diffuse east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. As mentioned, storm development will be possible with activity, with lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours all possible. Exact storm threats will become clearer as time progresses. Activity is expected to follow a somewhat diurnal pattern, with highest coverage in the afternoon and early evening hours slowly diminishing into the late evening and overnight hours. Ongoing development across the local Atlantic waters will be possible. The persistent onshore flow combined with the increasing moisture will help the local air mass become slightly warmer, with temperatures anticipated to be near to slightly above normal values for this time of year. The warmest temperatures will primarily be focused across the interior during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Lingering poor to hazardous boating conditions tonight into early Sunday will slowly improve as the pressure gradient continues to weaken and winds subside. Seas of 6 to 8 feet continue through early Sunday along with north to northeast winds around 15 knots, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until at least 4 AM Sunday. Winds becoming light and variable Sunday, with seas subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Monday onward, seas return to generally favorable conditions with seas ranging between 2 to 4 feet through next week. Winds are anticipated to remain below 15 knots, becoming more onshore from Tuesday onward.

While dry conditions are anticipated to continue through Monday thanks to a dry air mass in place, moisture begins increasing starting on Tuesday, with isolated to scattered showers and storms returning to the forecast particularly from the Cape southward. By Wednesday, rain and storm chances increase areawide.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR through the TAF period. N to NE winds 7-10 knots to start will become light N/NW aft 03Z as drainage flow develops with some increase in cirrus. On Sun, E/NE winds around 10-12 knots will develop behind the sea breeze at coastal terminals aft 16Z and spread inland reaching MCO btwn 21-23Z. MCO will see continued veering of winds Sun eve out of the SE with speeds decreasing around 5 knots.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is forecast to continue to rise, cresting this weekend due to an ongoing period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels are forecast to gradually fall through Minor Flood Stage through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 84 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 64 85 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 69 84 68 86 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 67 84 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 64 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 63 85 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 64 84 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 67 85 67 86 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.