textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Behind a weak front, a seasonably warm and quiet stretch of weather is forecast through the middle of next week. A substantial pattern change is increasingly likely late next week, with our next appreciable chance for rain and cooler temperatures potentially following.

- A long-period swell is causing a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the ocean.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin earlier this week. If affected by flooding, heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low-pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes. To its south, a weak shortwave trough is pushing through the southern Appalachians. This feature is driving a diffuse cold front toward the East Coast. The front is currently over North Florida and is forecast to pass through the peninsula over the next 12 to 18 hours. Continental high pressure follows close behind and is set to hold across the Southern U.S. through the middle of next week.

A series of shortwaves emanating from the Pacific Northwest is forecast to energize the polar jet stream along the U.S.-Canadian border beginning this weekend. With a weaker subtropical jet to its south, the overall split-flow pattern remains generally quasi-zonal and benign for Florida and surrounding areas through around Wednesday. Moisture levels are forecast to remain near seasonable norms as 850 mb (around 5,000 ft) temperatures stay near or above normal through this period.

Significant pattern amplification appears likely late next week, with meridional upper-level flow becoming more prevalent over CONUS. As a trough over the northeast Pacific deepens, a ridge should build across the Intermountain West. Downstream, a longwave trough is expected to form over the Eastern U.S. The 06/12Z ensemble suite is in fairly good agreement with this outcome. On the troughs leading edge, a surface cold front may reach Florida by late next Thursday or Friday. There is another wrinkle, as nearly 40% of members send a ripple of subtropical energy over Florida as the front passes.

Behind the front, below-normal temperatures are expected next weekend. Given the uncertainty regarding the trough's depth, the extent of the cold advection will need to be fine-tuned. However, with little to no blocking over the N Atlantic and substantial Pacific jet stream energy upstream, this setup appears transient, with temperature moderation favored beyond next weekend.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

This Weekend...

There may be a shower or two early this morning as the front passes by, but rain amounts will be very light even if it occurs at your location. We will watch for some patchy fog through daybreak as winds are light and near-surface moisture is prevalent. If you encounter fog, turn on your low-beam headlights and slow down.

Later today, most areas look to stay dry with rain chances under 15%. Beneath a mix of clouds and sunshine, pleasant autumn weather is forecast. Highs should reach the low to mid 80s. Slightly drier air will allow low temperatures early Sunday morning to dip into the upper 50s northwest of Orlando. This will set up quite a gradient: most areas should range through the 60s, except near and south of Port St. Lucie, which may hold onto low 70s.

We will hang onto quiet conditions on Sunday as well, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly sunny skies.

A long-period swell from a large area of low pressure south of Bermuda is expected to cause numerous, life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches. In addition, astronomical tides will increase this weekend as we approach a new moon. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible, especially during the morning high tides near and south of St. Lucie Inlet.

Monday - Wednesday...

Mostly tranquil weather is forecast to continue, with rain chances at 20% or less. High pressure should remain in control of our weather. Daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s are expected, with lows mostly in the 60s. There are a few models that provide enough moisture for slightly higher rain chances on Wednesday, so this will be something to monitor. Most likely, any significant rainfall potential will wait until late next week.

Thursday - next Saturday...

As the polar jet amplifies and a trough gathers over the Eastern U.S., a stronger cold front should be dispatched toward the state by late Thursday or Friday. As mentioned in the overview, a band of rain and isolated lightning storms may accompany the front, but guidance is nearly evenly split on whether this will occur.

The interaction of the polar and subtropical jets will help determine the depth of the trough next weekend, and this has major consequences for how much cooling will occur once the front passes. Below-normal temperatures are expected, with high temps by next Saturday in the upper 60s to low 70s. Forecast uncertainty remains significant, with the middle 50% of ensemble solutions spanning an 8 to 12 deg F temperature range across Central Florida next Saturday. By next Sunday morning, statistical guidance is forecasting low temps from the upper 40s over northern Lake County to the mid-upper 50s along the coast. However, the colder-end scenario (10th percentile) ranges from the low to mid 40s from Orlando northward to the low 50s at the immediate coast.

MARINE

Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

A weak cold front will pass through the local waters today. Behind it, a sprawling area of high pressure is forecast to overtake the Southern U.S. through early next week. Winds will turn northwesterly today before veering out of the northeast on Sunday. Occasionally poor boating conditions are expected in the Gulf Stream due to a long-period easterly swell.

NW winds 10-15 kt today, turning NE 10 kt on Sunday and Monday. Winds become light on Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas 4-5 ft nearshore, up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream, through Monday. Seas will diminish to 2-4 ft by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Low (20-30%) chance for MVFR-IFR CIGs to develop ahead of a weak "cool" front approaching ECFL. The front is forecast to reach the northern terminals around 12Z, then slowly continue south through today. Any IFR CIGs that develop are forecast to lift by 15Z, but will be close to MVFR until the front pushes through and drier air filters in behind. Light/VRB winds shift NNW-NNE 5-10 kts behind the front.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise the next several days through Minor and in some cases Moderate flood stage. The river at Cocoa (COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage this weekend with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage towards the middle of next week. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 62 80 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 82 62 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 82 66 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 83 67 83 67 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 82 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 83 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 83 62 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 83 66 82 66 / 10 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.