textproduct: Melbourne

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Current-Tonight...Stubborn (spotty) low stratus and patchy fog finally burned off thru mid-morning earlier today. Another very warm afternoon across ECFL with eventual maxes into the L-M90s. Peak heat indices will top out in the M-U90s to around 100F (locally). These hot and humid conditions will produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. A delayed sea breeze will be slow to push inland. As such, with deepening moisture across the area, ISOLD-SCT showers/storms (few strong) will develop thru late day and evening. Storm steering will shift activity back towards the coast with greatest precip chances (20-50%) Vero Beach northward. Primary storm threats remain frequent lightning strikes, strong gusty winds of 40-55 mph, small hail, and torrential downpours. Convection will diminish or move off the coast thru mid-late evening, with mostly dry conditions overnight.

Heightened fire sensitivity due to the continued dry/drought conditions with min RH values dropping to 35-40% across much of ECFL, including near the coast early this aftn. Westerly wind speeds will be around 10 mph, but may increase to 10-15 mph with the sea breeze and expect higher gusts.

Overnight lows will remain warm in the 70s with conditions muggy. There could, again, be some patchy fog around early Sun morning, but confidence does not permit inclusion into grids/zones. There will be some extensive cloud-cover which factors against it as well.

Sun-Mon...Plentiful moisture remains across the area and will promote an increasing diurnal shower/storm threat these two days. The sea breeze collision will be across the eastern FL peninsula and periodic shortwave impulses embedded in the near zonal flow aloft will also aid the convective threat; 40-60% Sun and 50-70% Mon. Highest coverage and perhaps strongest storm intensity will focus closer towards the coast. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined ALL of east central FL both days as a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms. Primary storm threats continue to be frequent lightning strikes, strong to damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph), hail to coin- size, and torrential downpours.

Heat impacts continue to build Sun as max temps reach the L-M90s and peak heat indices continue well into the M-U90s-100F. Clouds and precip may keep Mon temps a little lower - U80s to L90s (south). Warm and humid conditions will continue each overnight period, with lows in the 70s providing little relief. These hot/humid conditions will continue to produce a Moderate/Major HeatRisk across the area.

Another weak front approaches and moves into the area Mon night. Shower and storm chances do gradually diminish thru late evening Mon, but we could see some shower activity persist overnight in association with the boundary as conditions remain unsettled.

Tue-Fri...A weak front remains forecast to slowly shift south of the area becoming quasi-stationary across south FL. Moisture is slow to scour out with a trend for increasing rain chances through mid-week. There will also be an inland moving sea breeze each afternoon. Troughing aloft encompasses the southeast U.S. thru Thu with shortwave impulses aiding convection during this time. Post-frontal winds veer onshore behind the front continuing into late week. A weak high pressure influence will exist across the region. Chances for showers/storms Tue (60-70%) and Wed (20-40%). A drying trend is forecast Thu-Fri, but we may still encounter a 10-20% PoP threat on Thu. Temps return closer to seasonal values on Tue (in the 80s) behind the front, then continue to rise through mid/late week.

MARINE

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Current-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary has lifted back north of the local waters. S/SW winds (AOB 15 kts) will "back" onshore along the coast with sea breeze formation. A light offshore component will develop again later this evening and overnight. Ahead of that, mariners will need to monitor westward for any approach of afternoon/evening showers/lightning storms. Greatest threat will be from near Vero Beach northward. Seas generally 2-3 ft and locally higher invof convection.

Sun-Wed...An increased shower/storm threat exists 'Sun-Tue' of next week as moisture remains ample and boundary collisions across the eastern peninsula each day/evening allow for storm steering to direct activity back towards the coast. A weak front pushes into the local waters Mon night, slowly exiting southward during the day on Tue, but residual moisture remains. A few storms (at least Sun/Mon) will be locally strong and potentially severe with primary concerns of frequent lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Hail to coin- size and torrential downpours are also in play.

Generally a southerly component of wind thru Mon, with winds Mon night becoming light offshore behind the boundary, then quickly onshore again by Tue afternoon as the front settles across south FL. Keep in mind that convection can distort the prevailing forecasted wind field for a time. A brief surge in wind speeds 15-20 kts will be possible later Tue aftn & evening before diminishing overnight into Wed morning as a light onshore wind component develops and continues past mid-week.

Seas initially 2-3 ft build to 3-5 ft Tue, further to 6-7 ft offshore Tue evening thru Wed morning, slowly subsiding again Wed night onward.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

SW winds 10-15 knots will turn onshore (SE) near 15 knots and gusty behind the sea breeze at SUA/FPR/VRB/MLB through 19Z or so. Along the breeze, iso/sct TSRA are forecast thru at least 00z which will push the sea breeze inland to SFB/MCO late in the day with a wind shift. Have added TEMPOs for MVFR TSRA at MCO/SFB/TIX/DAB roughly 20Z-24Z. Kept VC term MLB southward but will amend if necessary to add TEMPOs. Light SW flow will return to all sites aft 03Z. Light fog/mist possible early Sun where heavy rain occurs this aftn/eve. Another round of TSRA is forecast Sun aftn and have inserted VCTS at MCO aft 20Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

A weak front will slowly lift back northward into northern Florida. Deep moisture will remain across the area and generate isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening; occasionally numerous in coverage Sunday through Tuesday of next week, mainly of a diurnal variety and may provide some decent "wetting" rains for much of east central FL. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe each day as this activity pushes back toward the coast and offshore. Storm threats include frequent lightning strikes, strong gusty winds, hail to coin-size, and torrential downpours. Greatest rain chances this afternoon and evening will be from Vero Beach northward and as far inland as the Orlando Metro area (30-40 percent). The threat does exist for potential new "fire-starts" from lightning strikes.

Southwest to west winds around 10 mph this afternoon and again Sunday will "back" southeast along the coast and increase to 10-15 mph due to the east coast sea breeze. Late day sea breeze collisions will favor the eastern Florida peninsula through Monday.

Fire Sensitive weather conditions are forecast this afternoon across east central Florida due to min RH values dropping to 35-40 percent, early near the coast, as well into the interior. Min RH values recover slightly on Sunday, 40-45 percent. Hot and humid conditions continue into early next week, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices of 95-100 degrees. Dispersion values will be Very Good to Excellent this afternoon, returning to Generally Good for Sunday, and Fair to Generally Good on Monday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for today, Saturday, May 9th:

RECORD DATE HIGH Daytona 09-May 97 2024 Leesburg 09-May 96 2009 Sanford 09-May 97 2024 Orlando 09-May 98 1915 Melbourne 09-May 94 1978 Vero Beach 09-May 93 2024 Fort Pierce 09-May 95 1967

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 89 73 88 / 20 50 30 70 MCO 74 91 75 89 / 10 50 30 70 MLB 77 90 77 88 / 20 60 40 70 VRB 77 91 77 91 / 20 50 30 70 LEE 73 91 74 89 / 10 30 10 50 SFB 73 92 73 90 / 10 50 30 70 ORL 74 91 75 89 / 10 50 30 70 FPR 77 91 77 91 / 20 50 30 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.