textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Dry conditions persist through Monday before rain chances increase as a frontal boundary approaches the Florida peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday, with conditions drying out once again late next week.

- Poor to hazardous beach conditions are forecast this weekend due to a high risk of rip currents. Residents and those visiting on spring break are strongly encouraged to avoid entering the water!

- Afternoon highs will generally remain above normal values through the forecast period.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions will be present across east central Florida through Monday due to critical RH values.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Current-Monday...An area of high pressure will remain situated across east central Florida this weekend and into Monday, with the center of the high gradually extending eastward across Florida and the local Atlantic waters. Dry air associated with the high has settled across the area, with current GOES Total PWAT imagery estimating values between 0.4" and 0.6". These lower PWAT values are anticipated to persist, resulting in near-zero rain chances through Monday. The lack of moisture will also result in minimal cloud coverage, allowing for sufficient daytime heating and a gradual warming trend over the next few days. Temperatures remain on track this afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s, with highs Sunday and Monday forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s areawide. While values will likely remain below record temperatures, it is worth noting that we will be approximately 5 to 7 degrees above normal. Overnight temperatures are forecast to remain in the 50s the next few nights, which remains right around normal for this time of year. Looking into the overnight forecast, some models continue to suggest a chance for fog development late tonight into early Sunday, particularly across the interior. While there are several models suggesting minimal to no fog, still decided to keep a mention of at least patchy fog in the forecast. Visibility reductions of one mile or less may be possible, and those out on the roads are encouraged to remain vigilant and practice road safety if reduced visibilities are encountered. Slow down, leave plenty of following distance between vehicles, and use only low beam headlights. Any fog that does develop will diminish after sunrise.

Spring break is in full swing and visitors (and residents, too!) to the east central Florida beaches should be aware that even though the weather will be perfect for the beach, lingering swells will lead to a high risk of rip currents through at least Sunday. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

Tuesday-Saturday...The high gets pushed southward on Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary approaches Florida, stalling across the area into Wednesday. A plume of moisture along and ahead of the front will make its way towards the peninsula, resulting in an increase in rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday, the rain chances are highest from Osceola to Brevard and areas northward (20-50%), and there is a low chance (20%) for some storm development with this activity. Confidence in storm development remains low, but increasing instability ahead of the boundary and cold temperatures aloft may be just enough to foster a favorable environment. Wednesday, rain chances areawide are forecast to remain between 20- 30%, with onshore flow aiding in shower and storm development. While rain chances do reenter the forecast, unfortunately rainfall totals will do little to help relative to the drought across east central Florida. Totals are forecast to remain less than 0.5", with most areas likely seeing 0.1" to 0.25" of rainfall. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the 80s, though some spots along the Volusia and northern Brevard coasts may only reach the upper 70s on Wednesday. Lows warm into the low 60s.

The stalled boundary washes out late next week, with another area of high pressure anticipated to gradually build across the peninsula once again. Dry conditions return to the forecast with a less than 10% chance of rain from Thursday onward. Mostly clear skies are also anticipated to return to east central Florida, with temperatures creeping back up into the mid to upper 80s areawide. The warmest temperatures appear to occur on Friday, with a number of places across the interior just a degree or two away from 90.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Poor boating conditions will continue across the Gulf Stream waters tonight due to lingering 6 foot seas. Boating conditions are then anticipated to improve by tomorrow morning, with seas of 2 to 5 feet continuing through Monday. High pressure overhead will help keep conditions dry and winds light out of the southwest at 5 to 15 knots. By Tuesday, boating conditions begin to deteriorate as a frontal boundary approaches the waters from the north, causing winds to become more northeasterly at 15 to 25 knots. Seas respond by rapidly building to 5 to 10 feet, with the highest wave heights forecast across the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Rain chances also return to the forecast across the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday (20-50%), continuing into Wednesday (30-50%). There is also a low chance (20-30%) of storm development with this activity. The front diminishes across the area late Wednesday into Thursday, with boating conditions anticipated to improve on Wednesday night. Dry weather and generally favorable boating conditions prevail late next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Guidance continues to show about a 20-30 percent prob for MVFR VIS at LEE, with 10-20 percent probs everywhere else along and north of I-4. Thus, have kept the TEMPO for MVFR VIS at LEE starting at 09Z. Otherwise, VFR and dry conditions through the TAF period. Light W-NW winds will increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning Sunday. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop after 17Z, mainly from KMLB- KSUA with winds veering SE- SSE at around 10 KT. Winds then become light and variable once again by early evening Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

High pressure has settled across the Florida peninsula and brought a dry air mass with it. This set-up will persist through at least Monday, resulting in sensitive fire weather conditions across the area. Minimum RH values are forecast to fall below 35% nearly areawide each afternoon and even below 30% across some portions of the interior. While winds are anticipated to remain below critical thresholds, there will still be a slight breeze around 10 mph at times, especially in the afternoons. Wildfire prevention steps should be taken seriously over the next several days, including properly discarding cigarettes, avoiding outdoor burning, and avoiding parking vehicles on dry grass. Moisture is forecast to increase Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of a weak frontal boundary, with a return of dry conditions anticipated late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 85 55 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 85 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 82 56 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 82 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 84 56 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 86 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 86 58 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 82 53 84 54 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.