textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- There is a High Risk for rip currents through the weekend. Entering the surf is not advised! Boating conditions deteriorate into the middle of next week

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day across east central Florida through this weekend before rain chances increase into next week. Minor flooding is the main hazard (especially during the workweek) along with lightning strikes and gusty winds

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are anticipated to continue across east central Florida through this weekend. Peak heat indices nearing and even exceeding 100F are expected

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Currently-Today... KMLB radar imagery currently shows scattered showers with embedded lightning. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s and dew points in the mid 70s to around 80F degrees. Analysis charts show a mid/upper level high (591mb) over the southwest Atlantic.

Rain chances (30-60% chance) increase into the afternoon/evening hours (highest rain chances between 2 PM and 8PM) with onshore low level flow in place coupled with daytime heating. Guidance shows MLCAPE up to 1,500-3,200 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 5-20kts, PWAT values up to 2.0-2.4", and 500mb temperatures at -6C. Relatively warm temperatures at 500mb and cloud cover is likely to limit the strong storm potential, however there is the potential for a strong storm or two capable of occasional to frequent lighting, wind gusts up to 35-45mph, as well as heavy rainfall (up to 1-3" in 60 minutes). Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to around 90F degrees are expected with heat index values up to 98F-105F degrees. There is a Moderate HeatRisk which affects anyone sensitive to heat without adequate cooling and hydration. Remember to practice heat safety if you are sensitive to heat!

Sunday-Monday... A similar forecast is expected to end the weekend with onshore low level flow in place. Rain chances then increase across east central Florida on Monday as a cold front moves southeast across the Deep South and northern Florida. Expect isolated to numerous showers and lightning storms to develop on Sunday with the highest rain chances in the afternoon and evening (mainly between 2PM-8PM). Scattered to widespread showers and lightning storms are forecast on Monday with the highest rain chances (60-80%) in the afternoon and evening hours. Guidance continues to show a limited potential for strong storms with 500mb temperatures at around -5C to -4C and moderate MUCAPE values. Thus, the primary hazards with isolated strong storms will be occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 35-45mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"+ in 60 minutes). Additionally, the WPC has outlooked northern east central Florida on Monday in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out 5) for excessive rainfall. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values up to 98F to 105F degrees.

Tuesday-Friday... Deterministic models and LREF-clusters are in good agreement that a longwave trough will deepen over the southeastern US through at least Wednesday. At the surface, a wet week is expected as a cold front - which is forecast to extend from low pressure over the southwest Atlantic - stalls across east central Florida through the week. The aforementioned front is forecast to meander between north central and south central Florida which will result in a tricky forecast for where the heaviest rainfall, as well as the greatest flooding potential will be each day. Either way, high rain chances (80-90%) are forecast which are forecast to gradually reduce mid to late week to 60-70% by Friday. The ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles indicate PWAT values (2.0"+) towards the 97.5th+ percentile on Tuesday and Wednesday. The WPC has outlooked much of east central Florida on Tuesday in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out 5) for excessive rainfall. Deterministic models show relatively warm 500mb temperatures coupled with moderate MUCAPE values and substantial cloud cover. Therefore, the main concerns at this time for east central Florida will be showers and lightning storms capable of heavy rainfall which will have the potential to result in flooding of roadways and low- lying areas. Temperatures will be dependent on the position of the stationary boundary with seasonable to below normal temperatures forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Currently-Today... Favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated to scattered northwest showers and lightning storms are forecast this morning before re-developing into the afternoon. There is the potential for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts to 34kts or greater. East- southeast winds at 10-15kts with gusts up to 20kts are expected. Seas to 2-3ft with up to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream are forecast.

Sunday-Wednesday... Mostly favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers and lightning storms with onshore low level flow in place through Sunday. Boating conditions deteriorate and become hazardous on Wednesday. High pressure is expected to gradually shift east over the western Atlantic to the north of east central Florida before a cold front/stationary boundary is forecast to gradually move southeast over east central Florida on Tuesday. Generally, scattered to numerous/widespread showers and lightning storms are forecast each day with the highest rain chances in the afternoon hours. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts at 34kts or greater. East- southeast winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are forecast to weaken on Sunday to 6-12kts before becoming light and variable on Monday. Winds are forecast to gradually increase from north to south across the waters on Tuesday and become hazardous over the Volusia county waters by Tuesday night as low pressure develops over the southwest Atlantic. Seas to 2-3ft are forecast before increasing rapidly from north to south on Wednesday at around 5-10ft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VCSH continues along the coast through late morning, remaining mostly VFR. Additional rain chances will become focused across the far interior into the afternoon, with VCTS mentioned at MCO/ISM/LEE. Have added a TSRA TEMPO at LEE (21Z-24Z) where confidence in convection is highest. East-southeast winds continue, increasing up to 10-12 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 86 75 89 74 / 40 30 40 40 MCO 89 75 91 75 / 50 30 50 30 MLB 88 78 89 75 / 30 30 30 20 VRB 89 77 90 74 / 40 30 30 10 LEE 88 74 90 74 / 60 40 50 40 SFB 88 75 90 75 / 50 30 50 40 ORL 88 76 90 76 / 50 30 50 30 FPR 88 76 89 73 / 30 30 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.