textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Strong, gusty north winds producing windy conditions and hazardous boating conditions along the Volusia and north Brevard coasts will decrease this evening

- Rain chances increase areawide Wednesday into Thursday ahead of the next cold front but amounts look limited

- Sharply colder air Thursday night with a wind chill; Freezing temperatures possible north of Orlando Friday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Thru tonight...Inverted coastal trough developed just offshore the Volusia coast with strong and gusty north winds along the coast and a large area of low-based stratocu clouds that spread SW into Lake/Seminole counties. After sunset, the NE winds along the Space and Treasure coasts will back and all areas will become uniformly north with speeds decreasing even along the Volusia coast. Isolated showers over the Atlc may reach the Treasure coast but most areas will remain dry. Quite a range of overnight lows, from the lower 50s across Lake/interior Volusia to the mid 60s along the immediate Treasure coast.

Tue-Wed (modified)...The old front now stationary to our south will begin to lift back to the north along with an increase in moisture overspreading southern sections with PWATs rising up to 1.50". This should produce isolated showers over the southern and coastal sections. Elsewhere over the north interior, conditions will remain mostly dry on Tuesday. Max temperatures recover a bit more, reaching the low to mid 70s. Attention turns to a mid level shortwave rounding the base of a deepening trough by midweek, as the features both progress toward the southeast U.S. That sfc front lifts a little further north on Wednesday, preceding a series of cold fronts advancing toward FL. This old boundary, along with additional forcing arriving from the north, will combine with 1.4-1.5" PW to raise rain chances to 25-40% Wednesday afternoon. The highest coverage of rain and timing remains a bit uncertain, but following the consensus of guidance, rain chances climb to 40-55% Wed night into Thu morning. Mostly cloudy conditions Wed are likely to keep temperatures a bit cooler (mid to upper 60s north, mid 70s south).

Thu-Mon (modified)...A strong cold front is forecast to sweep across the area Thu, accompanied by breezy to gusty northwest winds (20-30 mph gusts) which will advect much drier air with clearing skies Thu afternoon and night. The combination of NW wind, clear sky conditions, and cold continental airmass will send temperatures plummeting into the 30s for most by Friday morning. Wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s are forecast Friday morning as well, solidly reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria for most of ECFL with the possible exception of coastal Martin county. Sub-freezing temperatures (29F-32F) are possible Fri morning across north Lake and Volusia counties. Despite full sunshine Friday, max temps will range from the mid 50s Orlando north to the low 60s Martin county, 10-15 degrees below normal. Saturday promises another cold start with temperatures in the 30s and 40s, but a lighter wind makes for less of a wind chill factor but increases the risk of frost esp interior sections. Afternoon highs Sat rebound into the mid and upper 60s with lower 70s south.

High pressure that built over Florida and the southeastern U.S. Friday/early Saturday will break down again Saturday afternoon as another cold front brings reinforcing cold air Sunday into Monday. There are discrepancies in models at this range regarding timing and any chance of precip, but for now, this forecast calls for a dry frontal passage. Temperatures trend colder Sunday into early next week behind this front, perhaps flirting with wind chills near the 30-degree mark again Monday morning. On the whole, expect a cooler-than-normal pattern to persist through the extended range with limited opportunities for measurable rainfall.

MARINE

Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Inverted coastal trough developed earlier today extending from near the Cape northward offshore NE FL. Tight north pressure gradient on the west side of this trough is producing sustained 20 knots with higher gusts over the nearshore Volusia waters so reissued the Small Craft Advisory there thru this eve. The NE pressure gradient on the east side of the trough axis supports NE winds 10-15 knots across the remainder of the Atlc coastal waters. With 7 FT seas subsiding, canceled the SCA for the Gulf Stream early and replaced with a Caution headline.

Favorable boating conditions return Tuesday as NE winds decrease to 8-12 kt and seas reach 3-5 ft. Seas fall further to 2-4 ft Wednesday before offshore winds pick back up Wednesday afternoon and night (15- 20 kt). A strong cold front swings through Thursday, freshening northwest winds and building seas. Thus, poor to hazardous conditions quickly return Thursday morning to the offshore zones, expanding to the remainder of the local Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Seas reach a peak of at least 7-9 ft Thursday night/early Friday, though this could be a conservative forecast (some guidance brings wave heights up to 10+ ft offshore). Rain chances increase ahead of and along the approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday, and a lightning storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Stream.

High pressure builds over the waters Friday and winds respond by decreasing and turning onshore. Seas, though, will take a bit longer to subside Friday afternoon esp over the Gulf Stream. Boating conditions look quite favorable Sat within a weak pressure gradient/light wind regime and seas 2 FT nearshore.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1225 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Mainly VFR conditions forecast at the terminals through the period. Northeast winds prevail, with wind speeds around 10 knots. Gusts to 25 knots possible in some spots, particularly along the coast. VCSH forecast from VRB southward through the period, though rain chances remain less than 20%. Similar conditions anticipated into Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 55 70 54 68 / 10 10 40 50 MCO 56 71 59 68 / 10 10 40 40 MLB 59 73 58 72 / 10 20 50 50 VRB 61 75 59 74 / 20 20 50 40 LEE 51 69 54 67 / 0 10 40 40 SFB 54 71 56 69 / 10 10 40 40 ORL 55 71 58 68 / 10 10 40 40 FPR 61 75 59 75 / 20 20 50 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ550.