textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Isolated showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening, with slightly greater coverage forecast on Sunday. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and some small hail are possible.

- Favorable boating conditions through the weekend, becoming poor over the Gulf Stream Monday into Tuesday behind a front.

- Warming up this weekend, slightly cooler along the coast early next week, then hotter mid to late week as high pressure builds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Now-Tonight...Satellite imagery this afternoon shows fair weather cumulus developing over the area. The east coast breeze is delineated by clearer skies over the immediate coast (east of I-95) as it slowly treks westward. Very weak H5 height falls are noted on the last couple hours of RAP analysis, along with a weak and broad area of mid level energy moving overhead. Temperatures will continue to warm into the mid 80s inland this afternoon with coastal locations (behind the sea breeze) hovering in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Isolated showers are forecast (15-20% chance) as the sea breeze moves inland, eventually colliding with the west coast breeze over interior Florida. The latest CAM guidance and ensembles are spotty in nature regarding coverage of showers/isolated storms, lingering through mid to late evening (ending no later than midnight). Moisture is marginally greater south near Lake Okeechobee, but convective development is expected to struggle everywhere as a result of some lingering dry air. QPF is light, generally a few hundredths in places that do see rain. Likewise, there will be many locations (especially the coast) that stay dry. Temperatures steadily fall after sunset, reaching the low to mid 60s overnight.

Saturday-Sunday...A weak mid level trough pattern continues this weekend with west-northwest flow aloft. Surface high pressure technically remains in place through Saturday, weakening further on Sunday. Moisture will gradually increase each day with PW reaching 1.4-1.6", especially by Sunday. Winds at the surface on Saturday will be light, starting south-southwest and veering onshore during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms once again. Based on recent guidance trends, the thinking is for the west coast breeze to make it a little farther across the peninsula late tomorrow afternoon, colliding with the east coast breeze near/east of the Orlando metro. Aside from a slower inland-moving sea breeze helping to bump temperatures up several more degrees, this is where the greatest chance of scattered showers and isolated storms is forecast (25-30%). With a westerly component to steering flow, some outflow- driven activity could push back to the east coast through midnight or early Sunday morning. The modeled environment appears a bit more supportive for lightning storms, particularly closer to the coast Saturday evening. Gusty winds and even some small hail will be possible in the most organized activity. Be sure to head indoors if skies threaten or you hear thunder! Activity will wane after midnight as we lose the support of daytime heating and instability.

A similar story can be told for Sunday as mid level energy and a weak front approaches north-central Florida. Westerly winds through early afternoon will more slowly turn onshore mid to late afternoon as a diffuse east coast breeze forms. The chance for showers and scattered storms increases through the day and into the early evening hours, particularly with the sea breeze collision favored closer to the Atlantic coast. H5 temps do warm marginally (-10 to - 11C) but are still supportive of scattered convection, capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and even small hail. Daytime temperatures will depend on how cloud cover plays out, but there is likely to be enough sunshine to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees...especially farther south. Rain chances decrease as activity pushes offshore Sunday night/early Monday morning.

Monday-Friday (modified)...A 500mb shortwave moves offshore the Carolina and Mid Atlantic coast early Monday. Surface low pressure develops in the western Atlantic, pulling a "back-door" cold front across east central Florida Monday; however, there remain timing discrepancies in the guidance as to how fast this front introduces drier air to the region. Global ensemble members still point toward limited QPF associated with the front, but the overall timing of the FROPA will suggest if rain/storm trends go up or down for Monday. Right now, low confidence only suggests a slight chance for showers and an isolated storm Monday afternoon. Forecast confidence further decreases mid to late next week with some hints of another frontal passage later in the week (Thursday or beyond), with perhaps another front arriving next weekend.

Mostly dry through the extended period outside of the low shower/storm chance mentioned on Monday. High temperatures remain above normal, mostly in the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, climbing into the low 90s across much of the interior Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue through Monday morning, outside of the chance for isolated showers and storms (afternoon/evening). Light southwest winds Saturday and Sunday morning will veer southeasterly each afternoon behind the developing east coast sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft through Sunday night are forecast to build 4-6 ft Monday afternoon and evening as a weak front pushes south across the waters. Isolated showers and storms are possible Saturday evening/night as inland activity pushes offshore. Slightly higher coverage of showers and storms is forecast Sunday with activity again moving offshore from late afternoon through the evening before gradually dissipating overnight. Drier conditions return Tuesday onward as high pressure returns.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 733 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at ECFL terminals through the TAF period. ISO SHRA moving eastward towards the I-4 terminals over the next couple hours, then dissipating by 03Z. Dry conditions and light/VRB winds through the overnight and Saturday morning. East coast sea breeze develops around 17Z, shifting winds ESE 8-13 kts behind the boundary as it moves inland. Increasing moisture will support slightly higher coverage (ISO-SCT) of sea breeze driven SHRA after around 19Z, mainly west of the coastal terminals, with the highest chances (20-30%) INVOF the inland terminals after 21Z along the sea breeze collision. There is a low chance (20% or less) for ISO TSRA on the collision, but not confident enough for VCTS mention at this time. Winds become light/VRB again late Saturday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

High pressure remains through Saturday, weakening some on Sunday as a weak front approaches the area, then building again by next week. A light south-southwest breeze turns onshore Saturday afternoon as the east coast breeze develops. Isolated showers and storms are forecast late afternoon through the evening hours, starting over the interior and ending nearer to the east coast. Moisture increases a bit more Sunday, and combined with an east-coast-favored sea breeze collision and an approaching front, coverage of showers and storms increases to 30-45%. New fire starts are a concern with lightning activity, particularly on Sunday. Fire conditions remain sensitive over the interior Saturday with lower humidity values, before moisture modestly increases through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 85 64 86 / 10 10 20 30 MCO 64 88 66 88 / 20 30 20 40 MLB 66 84 67 86 / 10 20 30 30 VRB 64 84 66 87 / 10 20 30 30 LEE 64 88 65 88 / 20 20 10 30 SFB 63 89 66 89 / 20 30 20 40 ORL 65 89 67 88 / 20 30 20 40 FPR 63 84 65 87 / 10 20 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.