textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Scattered showers and lighting storms this afternoon and evening. Rain/lightning storm chances increase Tuesday with a risk of marginally severe storms (level 1/5) containing damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall with minor flooding potential. - A Moderate risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches through Tuesday and then a High Risk for rip currents thereafter; always swim near a lifeguard!

- The pattern is forecast to shift late this week behind a weak "cool" front that will move southward across the peninsula, bringing drier air, lower temperatures, and deteriorating boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Tonight-Tuesday... KMLB radar imagery currently shows scattered showers and isolated lightning storms over portions of east central Florida with the highest coverage over the local Atlantic waters where there are scattered showers and lightning storms moving east-southeast. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Winds are generally from the west at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to mid 80s with heat index values in the 80s to upper 90s (hottest where it hasn't rained and where there is less cloud cover). Scattered showers (50-80% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage into the late afternoon and evening as convergence increases at the surface with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland. The main hazards with storms will be wind gusts to 40-55mph (5-14% chance), frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3" in 90 minutes) with the potential to result in minor flooding, mainly in low-lying areas. Rain shower (20-40%) and lightning storm chances decrease after 7pm as they move offshore to the east-southeast. Lows in the low to mid 70s are forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Scattered to numerous showers (50-80% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into Tuesday afternoon as a "cool" front sags south across east central Florida and increase in coverage as winds turn onshore with the east coast sea breeze. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms over nearly all of east central on Tuesday with the main time-period for strong to severe storms between 3pm-11pm. Rain and lightning storm chances remain high into the late evening hours before gradually tapering off after 9-11pm. Additionally, there is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall over Volusia and Seminole counties, as well as portions of Lake, Orange, and northern Brevard counties. The main hazards are damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% chance), frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 60-90 minutes) with the potential to result in minor flooding. In addition, a funnel cloud or brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Expect west winds at 5-10mph with gusts to 15-20mph to turn onshore into the afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.

Wednesday-Sunday... The aforementioned "cool" front is forecast to slowly sag south over east central Florida before reaching Martin county by Wednesday morning. Scattered showers (40-70%) and lightning storms are forecast across east central Florida on Wednesday with the highest chances across the northern portions of east central Florida in the morning and then over the southern portions of east central Florida into the afternoon. The main hazards are wind gusts to 40-55mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3" in 90 minutes) with the potential for minor flooding, mainly over low-lying areas. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast on Wednesday.

Drier conditions are forecast mid to late week behind the front as high pressure (1020-1024mb) builds over the southeastern US. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast each day (mainly from Brevard county southward) before rain chances (20-40%) increase over all of east central Florida on Sunday. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast to gradually increase into the weekend before reaching the mid 80s to low 90s on Sunday. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Tonight-Tuesday... Generally offshore winds are forecast at 5-12kts with gusts to 12-25kts. Scattered offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast into this evening. The main hazards are damaging wind gusts in excess of 34kts (up to 5% chance of wind gusts to 55mph), frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Rain chances remain high (40-90%), especially into the evening and Tuesday night as a "cool" front sags south over the local Atlantic waters. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms over the nearshore waters on Tuesday with the main hazards expected to be damaging wind gusts up to 50-60mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. West winds are expected to turn onshore into Tuesday afternoon at 5-10kts with gusts to 15kts. Seas to 2-3ft nearshore and 4-5ft offshore (20-60nm) and over the Gulf Stream are expected.

Wednesday-Friday... Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast on Wednesday as the "cool" front sags south over the southern Atlantic waters into Wednesday morning. The main hazards are damaging wind gusts in excess of 34kts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Drier conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the southeastern US. East-northeast winds to 15-25kts are forecast with gusts to 25-30kts. Seas are expected to build from north to south through the day on Wednesday with heights to 5-8ft nearshore and 7-10ft offshore (20-60nm) and over the Gulf Stream. Winds diminish on Thursday from the east at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Seas gradually diminish to 4-6ft nearshore and 5-7ft over the Gulf Stream on Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Broken line of TS extending from near KX26-KLAL pushing south, forecast to impact KVRB-KSUA through around 03Z, then dissipate or drop south, but there is a low chance for SHRA/TSRA to linger INVOF these terminals as late as 06Z. Low chances for MVFR CIGs to develop at the inland terminals early Tuesday morning, but otherwise mostly quiet conditions through the night. Another early start to SHRA/TSRA Tuesday expected, as early as 14Z at the inland terminals, and SCT-NUM coverage possible in the afternoon- evening. Sea breeze collision and highest coverage of TS current forecast just west of the I-95 corridor. TSRA/SHRA could again linger well into late Tuesday evening, and there is potential for additional showers Tuesday night as a front drops into Florida. Surface flow remains offshore/WRLY 5-10 kts, becoming light/VRB tonight, and shifting onshore after along the coast after 18Z as the sea breeze develops.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 89 71 81 / 10 80 80 50 MCO 75 90 72 82 / 30 50 60 50 MLB 77 88 74 84 / 30 60 80 70 VRB 76 88 73 84 / 30 60 70 70 LEE 76 91 73 83 / 20 50 60 50 SFB 75 92 72 83 / 30 60 70 50 ORL 76 91 73 83 / 30 50 60 50 FPR 75 88 73 84 / 30 60 60 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.