textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect again today for all of east central Florida from 11AM to 8PM for peak heat indices up to 110.

- Hot again Saturday, especially across the north where high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will keep heat indices near Heat Advisory criteria (106-110), with widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts.

- Below normal rain chances 30 percent or less continue today, then rain chances pick back up closer to normal 30 to 60 percent from the weekend into early next week, before decreasing again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Today-Sat...Deep layer high pressure at the sfc and aloft will maintain a suppressed atmosphere resulting in above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Humidity will produce peak heat indices up to 110 today which has prompted another Heat Advisory for all of east central Florida from late morning through the early evening. Some increase in moisture from the south (PWATS ~2") will produce a little higher coverage across Okeechobee/ interior Treasure coast this afternoon (up to 30%) which should weaken as it lifts north into a tongue of drier air over Orlando metro and Volusia. Bulk of the diurnal convection today should be on the west side of the peninsula, possibly grazing Lake county. Continued moisture advection Sat on southerly flow will push rain chances back toward typical summer values between 40-60%. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-55mph, and locally heavy rainfall.

Sun-Thu...Upper trough is forecast to develop over the NE US and push a cool front into the deep South by Tue where it will stall and dissipate. Moisture assocd with the front should bring an increase in rain/storm chances Tue/Wed and possibly a little relief from the heat. Strong mid level ridge (heat dome) over the northern MS Valley/western Great Lakes will then expand into the SE US but bifurcate and weaken some as it does so. But building heat looks to return late next week with a more westerly flow delaying/inhibiting sea breeze development. Max temps forecast in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices 102-107 each day, with widespread Moderate with areas of Major HeatRisk impacts forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through Tue of next week as Atlc high pressure ridge remains in the vicinity. This will produce a south to southwest flow 7-10 knots, turning SE each afternoon near the coast behind the sea breeze at 10-14 knots. A slight nocturnal surge of S/SW flow 14-18KT will occur each evening offshore. Seas will be 1-2 feet, except up to 3 ft Volusia waters in the eve/overnight assocd with the brief surge. A gradual increase in moisture from the south will produce up to a 30% chance for showers and lightning storms across the far southern waters today; otherwise, 20% or less north of St Lucie Inlet. Then chances increase closer to normal (30-60%) this the weekend into early next week, especially near the coast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. The east coast sea breeze has formed and is slowly pushing inland this afternoon. Isolated showers have begun to form along the sea breeze, mainly from VRB southward. Additional showers and storms are forecast to form along the sea breeze, as well as the sea breeze collision, which will occur across eastern side of the state. Have maintained VCTS after 21Z/22Z and before 01/02Z for the interior terminals as well as from VRB southward. The potential exists for a strong storm or two. Light and variable winds will become SW at 5-10 KT this afternoon before backing SE and increasing to 6-12 KT behind the sea breeze. Winds will then become light and variable once again overnight with dry conditions. Winds will become SW at around 5 KT by mid morning on Saturday before turning SE and increasing to 6-12KT into the afternoon with the sea breeze. Scattered showers and storms are forecast to form along the sea breeze Saturday, and have included VCTS for now from DAB-SUA starting at 16/17Z and at MCO starting at 18Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites today and Sat:

Site July 10 July 11 Daytona 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 97 (2022) 96 (2020) Fort Pierce 96 (1981) 99 (1980)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 95 76 94 / 10 30 30 60 MCO 77 97 77 97 / 20 50 30 50 MLB 78 93 77 93 / 10 30 30 40 VRB 77 93 75 94 / 10 40 30 20 LEE 78 96 78 95 / 30 60 30 50 SFB 77 97 77 96 / 10 40 30 60 ORL 77 97 78 95 / 10 50 30 50 FPR 76 93 75 94 / 10 40 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.