textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged!

- While most locations will remain dry, isolated coastal showers, with scattered inland showers and storms in the afternoons and evenings, continue through the weekend.

- High temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, but heat index values climb to near or above 100 degrees this weekend into next week, as moisture increases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Today-Tonight...Same story, different day, across east central Florida. High pressure lingers off of the Carolina coast today, maintaining east to southeast flow over the local area, while a mid/upper level low spins aloft near the Bahamas. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out over the Atlantic waters, drifting onshore occasionally into coastal areas through this morning. However, most convection will form along the dominant east coast sea breeze this afternoon west I-95, then drift into western portions of the peninsula into this evening. Overall, most will remain dry, with low PoPs (20-30%) area-wide. Any convection diminishes this evening, though isolated showers will remain possible along the coast overnight. Highs today continue in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 70s to lower 80s.

Friday-Thursday...Overall, a rinse and repeat forecast into early next week. The surface ridge off of the Carolina coast begins to push southward towards the Bahamas late in the period. Meanwhile, the mid/upper level low moves eastward Friday into this weekend, with ridging building aloft over the Florida peninsula by Memorial Day. Thus, expect east to southeast flow to continue, increasing to 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25 mph, each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. However, will need to monitor a slight increase in onshore flow Monday into Tuesday, as the ridge fends off a cold front over the central US and flattens. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s continue, with overnight lows in the 70s and even lower 80s at the coast. Although, will see heat indices creep into the upper 90s to lower 100s as moisture increases this weekend.

Onshore flow will continue to lead to a dominant east coast sea breeze, with the highest chances for showers and storms over the western half of the peninsula. However, will still see isolated to scattered showers and storms develop along the sea breeze in the afternoons, before pushing westward into the evenings. PoPs 20-30% through Friday increase slightly to up to 40% this weekend, as moisture builds (PWATs 1.6-1.8"). At the coast, isolated, onshore-moving showers overnight and during the mornings look to continue through at least Friday, though will likely remain possible through the period. Regardless, chances overall remain low, so most areas will likely remain dry through at least mid- week next week. Main threats with any storms will be gusty winds, lightning strikes, and brief heavy downpours, though warming 500 mb temperatures will limit the strong storm threat this weekend and into next week.

Models (ECMWF) begin to diverge somewhat into late next week, with some hints at a pattern change, possibly leading to wetter conditions. There is plenty of time to watch and, notably, some models (GFS) maintain ridging in one form or another over the local area through 240 hrs.

MARINE

Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail through the weekend, as high pressure lingers over the western Atlantic. East to southeast winds remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts near 20-25 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze. Modestly increasing moisture will support at least isolated showers through the weekend. However, a majority of convection will remain over land areas along the sea breeze in the afternoons, drifting westward through the evenings. Seas 2-4 ft persist into the weekend.

Into early next week, winds look to increase slightly as the ridge begins to drift southward, leading to poor conditions at times, with seas up to 5 ft offshore.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Will continue to monitor for a few showers along the coastal terminals this morning but probabilities are too low for inclusion. Otherwise persistent ESE flow with VFR except near a few afternoon and evening showers and storms developing over the interior. MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE will need to be watched for nearby TS late today, but confidence precludes a TEMPO for now.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 75 89 76 / 20 10 20 0 MCO 91 74 91 75 / 30 10 30 0 MLB 88 79 88 79 / 20 10 20 0 VRB 88 78 89 79 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 92 75 92 75 / 30 30 30 20 SFB 92 74 92 75 / 30 10 30 0 ORL 91 75 91 75 / 30 10 30 0 FPR 88 77 88 78 / 20 10 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.