textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 248 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone!

- Mostly dry conditions forecast today, with rain chances gradually rising through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. - Turning breezy to windy into the weekend behind a passing front, with hazardous to dangerous boating and surf conditions developing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Today-Tonight...Broad area of high pressure in place across the Southeast U.S. will gradually expand eastward and offshore. This will allow low level winds to veer from the north to northeast today, with wind speeds increasing to 5-10 mph this afternoon. Airmass will remain rather dry, but the onshore winds and an increase in low level moisture may generate isolated showers and sprinkles over the waters that are able to push onshore. Hi-res and global model guidance keeps this activity mostly near to north of the Cape today, with a slight (20%) chance for onshore moving showers along much of the coast into tonight. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue for much of the area.

Temperatures will start off pleasant in the mid to upper 60s, with highs near to just a tad above normal today in the mid to upper 80s. As onshore flow becomes more established across the area, min temps tonight are forecast to remain in the low to mid 70s along much of the coast, with upper 60s to low 70s forecast inland. Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure at the surface remains north of the area, keeping winds onshore through midweek. East-northeast winds will increase up to 10-15 mph each afternoon (strongest along the coast). Isolated showers pushing onshore and developing along a diffuse inland moving east coast sea breeze will be possible tomorrow, with rain chances around 20 percent mainly southeast of the I-4 corridor. Moisture and instability will then continue to gradually increase across the area Thursday. Rain chances rise to 20- 50% near to south of Orlando, with a few storms possible into the the afternoon. Mid level ridge across the west Atlantic extending across the area will keep temps aloft rather warm (around -5 to -6C at 500 mb), so this should keep any stronger storm threat low.

Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Onshore winds will keep overnight lows in the low to mid 70s for most locations.

Friday-Monday...High pressure ridge and onshore flow weakens Friday as a cold front sweeps through the southeast U.S. and eventually across the area into Saturday. Winds briefly become northerly as front moves through, but strong area of high pressure that builds in well north of the front will quickly turn winds onshore into the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient between the front and ridge to the north, will lead to breezy to windy conditions developing behind this boundary as early as Saturday and likely persisting through early next week. Rain chances remain near to above normal through the period, with scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered storms each day. This activity will mostly be limited to the afternoon and early evening hours on Friday. However, into the weekend and through Monday deep moisture combined with strong low level onshore flow will continue rounds of gusty showers and storms pushing onshore. Locally heavy to excessive rainfall could also be possible, mainly along the coast where any persistent bands of showers and storms can develop.

The longer duration windy east-northeast flow will also lead to to the development of dangerous surf and boating conditions, and will also increase the potential for beach erosion this weekend into early next week. Max temps will still reach the mid to upper 80s on Friday, but are forecast to trend slightly cooler behind the front, falling to the low to mid 80s Saturday and then upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows will remain near to above normal as gusty onshore flow continues.

MARINE

Issued at 248 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Today-Friday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable through the work week. High pressure across the southeast U.S. will extend eastward, which will veer winds onshore. Winds will be out of the northeast today and then become more east-northeast through the remainder of the week. Wind speeds are forecast to generally remain below 15 knots with seas 2-4 feet today, falling to 2-3 feet Wednesday through Friday. Isolated showers and sprinkles will be possible across the waters through midweek, and then coverage of showers will increase into late week, with isolated storms also possible.

Saturday-Sunday...A passing front into the weekend will lead to hazardous to dangerous boating conditions into the weekend. N/NE winds increase to around 20-30 knots and gradually expand southward across the waters as winds veer to the E/NE through Sunday. Frequent gusts to gale force look to be likely, with seas building to 7-10 feet Saturday and even higher into Sunday. Even behind the front a wet pattern looks to persist, with strong onshore flow and deep moisture leading to high coverage of showers and scattered storms.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Mainly VFR conds through the TAF period. SCT marine stratocumulus with bases 025-035 AGL will begin to push back across the coastal terminals on Tue and reach the interior terminals (MCO) at ~040 AGL. HRRR and RRFS hi res guidance shows very isolated -SHRA may cross the coast btwn DAB-TIX in the afternoon but coverage looks too low to mention in any TAFs. Winds will pick up out of the NE aft 14Z with speeds 7-10 knots, decreasing with sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 84 72 85 72 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 88 71 88 71 / 0 10 10 0 MLB 85 75 85 75 / 10 20 20 10 VRB 86 73 87 75 / 0 20 20 20 LEE 88 69 88 69 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 87 70 87 70 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 87 71 87 71 / 0 10 10 0 FPR 86 73 86 74 / 0 20 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.