textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- A couple degrees warmer today with isolated showers, mainly Cape Canaveral southward

- Strong cold front arrives Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing a brief increase in rain chances

- Below normal temperatures Thursday onward; sub-freezing morning lows and frigid wind chills in the 20s to 30s, especially Friday morning and next Monday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Today-Tonight...An inverted surface trough remains just offshore this morning while a low cloud deck persists over the northern half of the area. The most recent cold front to move through ECFL has settled across the Florida Straits as a stationary front. Current temperatures range widely from the low/mid 50s north of Orlando to the upper 60s along the Treasure Coast. Where moisture remains marginally sufficient today, mainly over the Treasure Coast and Gulf Stream, isolated showers will be possible. That said, a majority of the area will stay dry with temperatures warming a few degrees more compared to yesterday (highs in the low/mid 70s).

Moisture return and the south Florida front moving north helps to expand 20-30% rain chances northward overnight, but the majority of activity will be focused out over the Gulf Stream. In other words, a continuation of isolated showers will simply expand north toward Cape Canaveral and even the Volusia Coast through daybreak Wednesday. Lows tonight are forecast to settle into the mid 50s north to the low/mid 60s from the Orlando metro to the Treasure Coast.

Wednesday-Thursday...Wednesday morning, a weak cool front looks to be draped across portions of the Treasure Coast and Gulf Stream waters, before sliding east of the area by midday. Our focus is on the next series of cold fronts, approaching central Florida late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 500mb height falls begin in earnest late Wednesday afternoon as a trough deepens over the eastern U.S. Rain chances look limited Wednesday, with one batch of QPF shifting well offshore and models in disagreement on very light QPF north of Orlando in the afternoon.

We will be waiting on the arrival of a stronger cold front early Thursday, bringing with it slightly better rain chances (30-55%). Model guidance lends to a little lower confidence than is typical at this time range. GFS+AI ensembles point to generally 0.2" or less of measurable rain between now and the FROPA Thursday morning, whereas the ECMWF+AI ensembles are more centered around 0.3"-0.4" of rain. Granted, a couple tenths of rain is not a huge difference with most of the area under D0-D1 (abnormally dry to moderate drought) conditions. As quickly as rain moves in, it will move out over the open Atlantic Thursday afternoon.

A westerly breeze Wednesday under a mostly cloudy sky is likely to keep temperatures a bit cooler, especially north of I-4. Behind Thursday's front, noticeably colder and drier will rush southward supported by a 10-15+ mph wind (gusting 20-25 mph at times, especially at the coast). Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday trend down on Thursday, struggling to reach the 60-degree mark Orlando northward. Skies quickly clear Thursday night, setting the stage for a cold night and brisk wind chill values.

Friday-Monday...Before stepping outside for work or school Friday morning, be sure to dress warmly! Forecast morning lows have not changed much from the previous cycle, maintaining the idea of temperatures at or below freezing along and north of I-4, in addition to sub-freezing lows across interior ECFL as far south as Lake Okeechobee. Making it feel even colder will be a northwest breeze, sending wind chill values into the mid/upper 20s for a majority of the area. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory will be needed for a large portion of ECFL Friday morning. Winds decrease through the day Friday into early Saturday as high pressure builds over the peninsula. Despite plenty of sun Friday afternoon, temperatures will really struggle to get out of the 50s from Osceola/northern Brevard and points north (low 60s south). Mostly clear conditions Friday night sets the stage for another cold night (30s-mid 40s). With lighter winds overnight, there is a possibility of frost developing Saturday morning over portions of the area. Daytime temperatures make a comeback, climbing into the 60s to low 70s. But then...

Below normal temperatures look to be reinforced by another cold front Saturday night into Sunday. A lack of moisture along this front is keeping rain chances out of the forecast. Temperatures swing colder again Sunday into early next week, with lows in the 30s to mid 40s and highs only in the 50s and 60s. Sub-freezing temps are possible again, especially Monday morning. Behind the front, northwest winds will again add a wind chill factor with values falling into the mid 20s to low 30s Monday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Weak surface trough remains over the nearshore waters through tonight as N-E winds decrease today. Isolated showers are forecast along the Treasure Coast and over the Gulf Stream, expanding north and eastward in time, especially on Wednesday. Seas fall to 3-4 ft today and 2-4 ft Wednesday.

A strong cold front approaches early Thursday morning, quickly pushing south of the waters by the afternoon. Shower chances increase to 40-60%, followed by freshening NW winds behind the front. Poor to hazardous boating conditions gradually expand from the offshore waters Thursday morning to the remaining marine legs Thursday afternoon. NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt (esp. offshore) build seas to 4-7 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft offshore Thursday night. The pressure gradient quickly unwinds Friday as high pressure builds overhead, allowing seas to fall to 3-6 ft Friday afternoon. Favorable boating conditions return Friday night and continue through much of Saturday (seas 2-3 ft).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1251 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

MVFR and IFR CIGs continue to build southward across the area. Have continued prevailing MVFR/IFR CIGs across the interior and DAB. Guidance is not consistent on how long this will persist. For now, have maintained lower CIGs lingering through 08Z. But wil continue to monitor. VFR conditions are then forecast once these lower CIGs lift. Northerly winds around 10 KT tonight will becoming N/NE Tuesday and remain around 10 KT before becoming light and variable around 23/00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 70 55 67 50 / 10 30 30 40 MCO 73 60 68 54 / 10 30 20 50 MLB 74 58 72 52 / 10 30 30 40 VRB 75 59 74 51 / 20 40 30 30 LEE 70 55 67 51 / 10 20 20 50 SFB 72 56 68 52 / 10 30 20 40 ORL 72 59 67 53 / 10 30 20 50 FPR 75 59 75 51 / 20 40 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.