textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast this through this evening, with slightly greater coverage forecast on Sunday. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and some small hail are possible.

- Favorable boating conditions through the weekend, becoming poor over the Gulf Stream Monday into Tuesday behind a front.

- Warming up this weekend, slightly cooler along the coast early next week, then hotter mid to late week as high pressure builds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Today-Tonight... An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard today will slowly push offshore into the Atlantic waters through this evening as another trough pushes eastward into the eastern US. Multiple rounds of shortwave energy will traverse across the Florida peninsula and the local area through the day in the northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will weaken, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. This will result in southwest flow locally with winds becoming enhanced and turning onshore in the afternoon with the development of the east coast seabreeze. Model guidance indicates the east and west coast sea breeze will collied near the Orlando metro late in the day.

Moisture will increase in the afternoon, with forecast PW values increasing to 1.3-1.5" in vicinity of the next passing shortwave. This increase in moisture will help slightly increase rain chances today from what they have been the past couple of days. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain this afternoon, with the greatest potential for showers and storms occurring across the interior where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur. Forecast sounding show adequate instability (300- 500 J/kg of MUCAPE),cooler temperatures aloft ( -12 to -13C at 500mb), negative lifted index values, as well as sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE around 500-800 J/kg). Because of this, stronger storms (especially those that are coupled with the passing shortwave energy aloft) will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-45 mph, and small hail. Showers and isolated storms will then begin to push back towards the coast and offshore through early evening. Any lingering activity should dissipate or move out of the local area by midnight.

Temperatures will remain above normal as the warming trend continues today with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. A Minor HeatRisk exists across portions of east central Florida today, especially across the interior and along the coast from Cape Canaveral southward. Overnight lows will be mild, albeit slightly warmer than the previous night, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Sunday morning, mainly across the interior, with the greatest potential around the Orlando Metro area. Any lingering fog should dissipate around 9 AM.

Sunday-Sunday night.... An upper level trough across the eastern US will steadily push eastward and off the coast into the Atlantic through the day. Much like today, several rounds of shortwave energy will travel across the Florida peninsula through the period. Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to weaken as its axis loosely remains over the Florida peninsula. Locally, winds will turn southwest to westerly with the sea breeze pattern continuing. However, due to the dominate offshore flow, the west coast sea breeze will dominate, with the east coast sea breeze remaining pinned near I-95 in the afternoon.

Forecast PW values will be around 1.3-1.5", which will support higher rain chances across the local area. There is a medium (30-50 percent) chance of rain in the afternoon. The greatest potential for storms will once again be across the interior, especially near the Orlando Metro as the dominate west coast sea breeze pushes through and interacts with outflow boundaries. The environment looks slightly more conducive for storm activity with forecast soundings showing plenty of instability (700-1200+ J/kg of MUCAPE), cooler temperatures aloft (-10 to -11C at 500mb), negative lifted index values, as well as sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE around 600- 800 J/kg). Because of this, stronger storms (especially those that are coupled with the passing shortwave energy) will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and small hail. Any lingering activity will push back towards the coast and offshore through early evening.

The warming trend continues with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, maybe even a couple locations near 90 degrees. A Minor HeatRisk will expand to most of east central Florida on Sunday. Overnight lows will increase slightly, especially across the south, with lows generally in the 60s.

Monday-Saturday... An upper level trough across the Ohio Valley on Monday will push eastward and off the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. An upper level low pressure over Canada will drop down into the Great Lakes region mid to late week before it deepens across the Mid Atlantic States and moves out into the Atlantic by late week/early weekend. At the surface, a strengthening low pressure system off the eastern US coast on Monday will push a "back-door" front across east central Florida Monday. High pressure will then build down from the eastern US across the Florida peninsula and remain in place through mid week. Models are coming into better agreement that a cold front across the Deep South will then approach the local area on Thursday. However, uncertainty remains in how cleanly the front will pass through, with WPC showing the front clearing ECFL by early Friday morning.

There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain on Monday with the back-door front before drier air moves in, keeping mostly dry conditions through mid week. Rain chances return on Thursday with the next frontal passage, with lingering moisture maintaining scattered showers and storms each day through early weekend. Due to the fact that the trend in rain chances have increased through that time frame, additional increases in rain chances are possible in future forecast packages. Will continue to monitor those trends carefully.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures Monday will resume a general warming trend through the period. Afternoon highs will reach low 90s across the interior by mid week, with low 90s expanding across much of ECFL by the weekend, and even potentially reaching mid 90s across the interior by late week. Overnight lows will be near to slightly above normal with lows generally in the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Today-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions through Sunday before seas begin to build again as a weak cold front moves through. Light winds shift south to southeast (onshore) each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Seas 2-3 ft through Sunday before building to 4- 6ft on Monday and Tuesday with the frontal passage before decreasing to 3-5ft on Wednesday as high pressure builds over the local waters. Winds shift northeast and increase to 10-15 KT Monday. Winds then decrease to 5-10KT through the rest of the period, with winds shifting to north to northeast on Tuesday and south to southeast on Wednesday. While it will be mostly dry across the local waters today, isolated offshore-moving showers and storms will be possible through this evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are once again forecast across the local waters Sunday afternoon and evening with isolated showers possible on Monday. Mostly dry conditions Tuesday through mid week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 736 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Line of SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA extending south from near KMLB-KOBE will continue pushing eastward and eventually offshore over the next 6 hours. ISO -SHRA behind the the line could persist through the period. Dry conditions the rest of the night and through Sunday morning. Very low chances (15% or less) for fog to develop across the interior early Sunday morning. Winds become light SW tonight, then WRLY 5-10 kts Sunday, pinning the east coast sea breeze near the coast. Another round of afternoon SHRA/TSRA forecast Sunday afternoon, likely pushing across the area on along a diffuse west coast sea breeze after 18Z, and colliding with the ECSB later in the evening then pushing offshore.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Sensitive minRH values continue across portions of the interior today before moisture gradually recovers Sunday and Monday. Light winds shift east-southeast around 10-15 mph this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. The west coast sea breeze becomes favored Sunday, and west winds increase 10-15 mph across much of the interior in the afternoon. However, a weaker, slower east coast breeze will still manage to shift wind east-southeast in vicinity of the I-95 corridor Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon. Increasing coverage of scattered showers and storms is forecast Sunday, and new fire starts are a concern with lightning activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 87 66 82 / 10 40 20 20 MCO 66 88 68 86 / 20 50 10 30 MLB 67 86 68 83 / 30 40 20 20 VRB 66 87 66 84 / 20 30 20 20 LEE 65 87 67 87 / 10 30 10 20 SFB 65 89 67 85 / 20 50 10 20 ORL 67 89 68 87 / 20 50 10 30 FPR 65 87 66 84 / 20 30 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.