textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Patchy fog potential persists on most mornings this week. It may become locally dense, especially in rural areas.

- Other than a low chance for showers along the Treasure Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, a long stretch of dry weather is forecast.

- Temperatures remain generally above normal over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Current-Tonight...Weak surface front will slide south across the area today gradually losing its identity during the next 24 hrs as it dissipates. Winds will become northerly, gradually shifting to onshore along the coast this afternoon with speeds up to around 10 mph. Mainly dry conditions expected. Highs today in the U70s along the coast and near 80F to L80s into the interior. May have to watch, again, for some patchy (locally dense) fog formation late overnight into early Tue morning. Winds become light/variable this evening and overnight. Mins will realize the U50s to around 60F across the interior and L60s along the coast.

Modified Previous Extended Forecast Discussion.

Tue-Wed...Early morning fog may plague portions of ECFL the next couple of mornings due to light winds, clear nights, and just enough low-level moisture; with highest chances across the I-4 corridor. Surface high pressure will build southeastward from the mid Atlc states thru mid-week. With an uptick in moisture there may be some onshore-moving light rain chances (~20%) through early Wed across the Treasure Coast and adjacent Atlc waters, but most of ECFL will remain dry. Expect a mix of clouds/sun and seasonably warm afternoon temps. Highs each day range from the U70s to L80s. Lows should turn a bit milder, with M-U50s near and north of Orlando to the L-M60s at the coast.

Thu-Next Mon...With deep-layer high pressure over the state late this week and into the weekend, more quiet and warm weather is forecast once any patchy morning fog burns off. Unseasonably warm highs reach the U70s to M80s with lows in the U50s to U60s (coast). A cluster of guidance supports the next cold frontal passage late Sun or next Mon, but moisture values look unfavorable for notable rain chances. In fact, the EPS and GEFS members give the majority of Central Florida only a 10% chance (or less) of 1/2" of rain through Thanksgiving.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

A weak front will settle across the local waters during the day losing its identity over the next 24 hours. Modest moisture will permit for some light rain chances into early Wed. High pressure builds southeast from the mid Atlc states to off of the FL east coast. A light onshore flow will persist thru Thu. Seas generally 2-3 ft and occasionally 4 ft in the Gulf Stream. Boating conditions will remain generally favorable.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1244 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions prevail at ECFL terminals through around 08Z tonight. Conditions are once again favorable for fog reducing VIS to MVFR between 08Z and 13Z due residual moisture draped across Central Florida from the weak front, mainly from KMCO/KISM to KTIX south. Highest chances (around 40% based on HREF guidance) at KMLB-KFPR, where there is also a low (30% or less) chance for VIS reductions to IFR. HREF is also showing low (around 30%) chance of LIFR-VLIFR at KMLB-KFPR, likely due to recent HRRR runs calling for zero visibility but this guidance has been excessively over-enthusiastic for days, so considering this model contamination for now, especially since LAMP remains VFR. Given these chances continue for several hours, calling for prevailing MVFR at KMLB- KFPR, and TEMPO MVFR conditions at KMCO/KISM, KTIX, and KSUA for this package. VFR conditions expected to resume by 14Z at the latest. Light northerly winds become variable at times overnight, shifting northeast and remaining light Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 78 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 60 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 62 80 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 61 81 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 57 81 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 58 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 60 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 60 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.