textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- Scattered showers and a few storms across the south tonight into Monday morning.

- Hot temperatures expected by the middle of the week. Widespread low to mid 90s are forecast on Wednesday over the interior, expanding to all areas by Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...The earlier front as moved into far southern Florida as of early this afternoon. High coverage of mid low and mid-level clouds persists from around Melbourne southward, helping to keep temperatures in this area in the lower 70s. Elsewhere, breaks in the cloud cover have allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 70s. Scattered showers continue across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast and are forecast to linger through tonight. Overall instability is low. However, cannot rule out a stray lightning strike or two, should cloud cover diminish enough to warm the surface. Otherwise, the best chance for a storm or two will likely be late tonight from any convection over the waters, which could drift into the coast along breezy onshore flow. Quite the gradient for PoPs into tonight, with 40-60% Vero Beach southward and no mentionable PoPs north of a line from Kissimmee to Titusville. Most areas remain in the 60s late tonight, though drier air will allow for the normally cooler locations in northern Lake and Volusia Counties to dip into the upper 50s.

Monday-Thursday...The front lingers in the vicinity of south Florida and the Straits through mid-week. Aloft, a series of upper level shortwaves traverse the Florida peninsula through Tuesday, before increasingly zonal flow develops into late week. At the surface, a ridge developing off of the Mid-Atlantic coast stretches a ridge axis towards the local area through Thursday. The presence of the front will maintain slightly higher moisture (PWATs 1.15-1.3") across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County Monday and Tuesday. This, combined with modest support from the passing shortwaves, may be enough to generate isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoons, generally south of Orlando. PoPs 20-30%. By Wednesday and Thursday, the loss of upper level support and the ridge axis keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast.

Breezy onshore flow continues on Monday, with wind gusts 20-25 mph, especially along the coast, in the afternoon. Onshore winds weaken Tuesday and veer southwesterly by Thursday, as the ridge begins to move farther into the Atlantic. Thus, a more typical sea breeze pattern is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, before it is pinned to the coast Thursday. Diminishing onshore flow and increasing southwesterly flow will cause temperatures to rise through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday afternoon reach the upper 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday. Thursday is expected to be the hottest day, with near-record highs in the lower to mid-90s.

Friday-Sunday...A weak front is forecast to push the aforementioned ridge into the Atlantic late week, reaching north Florida on Friday. Models are struggling to get a handle on where the front will likely stall and how much moisture will be present along it. So, will continue to watch, but the bottom line is that low to medium rain chances look to return for the weekend. Since the front will be weak, little relief is expected from hot temperatures, as highs remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

MARINE

Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

A weak front continues through southern Florida and into the Straits through mid-week, as a high pressure ridge axis develops over the waters. Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue through Monday, as high pressure builds over the area. Seas up to 4-7 ft in the Gulf Stream linger, with a surge of NE winds 20-25 kts forecast for Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Thus, small craft should exercise caution over the Gulf Stream into tonight, with a Small Craft Advisory issued for the Gulf Stream south of Cape Canaveral Monday.

Conditions then improve Tuesday into late week, as onshore winds slacken and veer southwesterly through the period. A sea breeze will continue to develop near the coast each afternoon, increasing winds to 10-15 kts. Seas diminish 3-4 ft Tuesday and 2-3 ft by Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

MVFR CIGs from VRB southward through the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions. NE winds 10-15 KT with occasional gusts to 20 KT will settle to 10 KT or less after 03Z. VCSH continues from MLB southward this evening into the overnight hours. ENE winds will increase to 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT after 12Z along the coast and 14Z across the interior. Have included VCSH from MLB southward through 20/22Z as CAM guidance is hinting convection will shift further southward into the late afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

A stalled front and onshore flow will keep min RH well above critical levels along the coast and across Okeechobee County. To the north, building high pressure will usher in drier air, leading to min RH between 40-50%, lowest across Lake County. Breezy onshore flow into Monday, with gusts up to 20-25 mph, will slacken through the remainder of the work week. Scattered showers and storms remain possible, mainly in the afternoons south of Orlando, through Tuesday.

Looking ahead, increasingly hot temperatures will lead to more sensitive min RH conditions through mid-week. Min RH is forecast to fall to 40-50% area-wide, with a few interior locations nearing 35%. Highs reach the lower to mid-90s during this time. Winds favor a sea breeze pattern through the period, with southwesterly flow keeping the breeze pinned to the coast Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 63 79 64 83 / 10 0 0 10 MCO 65 81 65 87 / 10 10 10 20 MLB 68 79 68 82 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 68 79 67 82 / 40 30 20 20 LEE 62 83 63 87 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 63 82 63 87 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 65 82 65 87 / 10 10 10 20 FPR 68 79 67 82 / 40 30 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ555-572- 575.