textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 340 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Windy and warm Sunday will produce very sensitive fire weather conditions.

- A Marginal risk (Level 1/5) of severe storms will exist Sunday evening across northern parts of east central FL. While rain chances are high, rainfall amounts will not have a significant impact on our drought.

- Only slightly cooler Monday with lingering showers. Then warming back up mid week and quickly drying out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Thru tonight...Wind flow veers SE as high pressure pushes seaward from the Carolina coast and low pressure moves east from the ArkLaTex. Isolated showers over the Atlc will develop a NW motion, possibly reaching portions of the coast from the Cape southward once the sea breeze circulation diminishes this evening.

Sun-Mon...Low pressure tracks east across the deep South Sunday and southerly pressure gradient tightens across the area as the day progresses. This will produce a windy and warm afternoon with sustained winds around 20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. This is not far from Wind Advisory criteria but HREF probs are quite low for gusts greater than 35 mph. Most areas will remain dry through early afternoon Sunday, with isolated shower chances (20%) developing south and east of Orlando. All eyes will be toward the NW as a band of storms progresses east across the FL panhandle and eastern Gulf ahead of a cold front. Widespread coverage (70-90%) of showers and isolated lightning storms develops north and west of the I-4 corridor early Sunday evening (after 6 pm), spreading southeast through the overnight hours.

Despite an overall lack of instability, strong wind fields and upper forcing from a potent shortwave trough crossing the area will produce a risk for strong to marginally severe storms primarily north of a line from Titusville to Lake Kissimmee during the evening hours Sunday. The band of showers/storms is forecast to weaken as it pushes south of Melbourne during the overnight. Even in the absence of stronger storms, low level wind profiles will be supportive of showers producing wind gusts up to 45 mph. Rainfall accumulations are forecast to be less than one-half inch but locally higher amounts will occur in Lake/Volusia/ Seminole and Orange counties. While very welcome rain, it will not have a significant impact on our drought.

Lingering showers Monday as winds turn N but deep drying does not commence immediately. Breezy conds along the coast at 15-20 mph where low clouds should be slow to erode/break up esp north of the Cape.

Above normal max temps across the board Sunday as area will be in the warm sector with deep southerly flow ahead of the front. Max temps in the low to mid 80s, even the coast due to a slight offshore component. Records look out of reach. On Monday, max temperatures will be much cooler along the Volusia coast due to the north wind and pesky stratus, holding near 70F. Warming into the upper 70s around Lake O and Treasure coast.

Tue-Fri (modified)... Surface high pressure slides into the western Atlantic Tuesday with the trailing ridge axis settling towards south Florida mid to late week. This will produce a warming trend each day with no mentionable rainfall. Highs in the mid to upper 70s across much of the area on Tuesday increase to the the mid 80s Thu-Sat. Low temperatures mainly in the 50s each morning.

MARINE

Issued at 340 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Deteriorating boating conditions are forecast tonight and especially Sunday as winds increase out of the southeast then south ahead of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for the offshore waters (20-60 nm) at 10 AM Sunday as winds increase to around 20-25 kts. The Advisory will expand to the nearshore waters Sunday afternoon for south winds near 20 knots. Seas will build 5-7 ft offshore in the Gulf Stream into Sunday evening. Winds turn NW to N Monday with poor to hazardous boating conditions continuing. Winds and seas decrease Tue-Wed as the ridge axis settles south across the local Atlc waters.

Shower coverage increases Sunday, becoming widespread (70-90%) Sunday night as a band of showers and storms sweeps through. Storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts esp from the Cape northward as they push offshore. Even in the absence of storms, showers will be capable of wind gusts of 34 kts. Rain chances linger over the waters Monday before drying Tuesday and into mid week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 104 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. East to southeast winds at 8-12 KT with occasional gusts to 15-18KT this afternoon will become light and veer S/SE overnight. Dry conditions are forecast through tonight. Winds then become breezy to gusty and veer more southerly on Sunday ahead of a cold front, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT by mid- morning. Isolated afternoon showers on Sunday are forecast ahead of the main convective band that is set to push through Sunday evening. Have included VCSH starting at 21Z at MCO for now.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Increasing southerly surface and transport winds Sunday will produce sustained winds near 20 mph, gusting 30-35 mph. This will combine with very warm temperatures to produce high dispersion values and a very fire weather sensitive day. Min RH values are forecast to hold above critical values between 40-45% so Red Flag conditions are not forecast to occur. Nonetheless, given the very dry conditions, any new or existing fires will be capable of spreading rapidly.

Much needed rain will move in Sunday evening into the overnight associated with a cold front. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be higher across northern sections (Orlando northward) between 0.25- 0.75" and there is a risk there for isolated strong to severe storms containing wind gusts up to 60 mph during the evening hours. Lesser rain amounts between 0.10-0.25" are forecast from Melbourne southward.

Isolated showers will linger Monday with a wind shift out of the northwest to north and breezy along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 58 79 59 71 / 10 40 90 30 MCO 60 82 63 74 / 0 40 90 30 MLB 60 79 60 75 / 10 30 80 30 VRB 61 80 61 77 / 10 20 80 30 LEE 59 81 60 75 / 0 50 90 30 SFB 59 82 61 75 / 0 50 90 30 ORL 60 82 62 76 / 10 40 90 30 FPR 59 80 60 78 / 10 20 70 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572-575.