textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Continued very warm today with one more day of near-record highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A strong cold front will bring a band of showers Sunday followed by sharply colder and much drier air. Critical fire weather conditions may develop Sunday afternoon into the evening for northern sections and will likely develop areawide Monday.

- Unseasonably cold low temperatures Mon-Wed mornings with frost/freeze concerns. Coldest wind chills will occur Mon night/Tue morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Today/Tonight...High pressure ridge axis will remain across south FL and produce a SW wind flow. The offshore (SW) flow will not be strong enough to prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming but it will be delayed. This will allow even coastal sections to warm into the mid 80s with upper 80s over the interior. There is a good chance for more sites to tie or even break record highs (see below). Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along a stationary front across the deep South. This low will begin to deepen tonight along the Carolina coast and a trailing cold front will push into north FL peninsula. Isolated to scattered showers ahead of this front will reach Lake and Volusia counties round or a little before sunrise.

Sun-Tue...Winter makes a comeback. The cold front will sweep across EC FL Sunday preceded by a band of showers. While chance for measurable rain is high (60-70%), rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25" most areas. A few storms are possible over southern sections (south of Melbourne) during the afternoon as daytime temps reach the low to mid 80s and a narrow band of instability with CAPE values around 750 J/kg. Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will usher in sharply colder and much drier air Sunday afternoon from north to south behind the front. Collaborated with JAX/TBW about Fire Weather Watch for late Sunday as trend is for lower dewpoints and RH values reaching our northern counties late in the day. Advection of lower dewpoint air often outruns the onset of significant cold air advection. This is an unusual situation in that critical fire weather conditions could extend into the evening, post-sunset. Would not be surprised if a Red Flag Warning is needed for northern counties late Sun/Sun eve.

Temperatures will fall quickly Sun eve reaching the mid to upper 30s Mon morning which indicates a colder trend in model guidance. A persistent NW breeze of 10-15 mph will produce lowest wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Despite full sunshine Monday, max temps will be about 15 degrees below normal, only reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s. Breezy NW winds of 15 mph and gusty on Mon combined with very low RH will produce critical fire weather conditions.

The coldest night will be Mon night when a Cold Weather Advisory is likely to be needed for most of the area with lows in the 30s and lowest wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s due to a northwest breeze holding near 10 mph. Probability for freezing temperatures near 30/lower 30s is rising (up to 70%) for interior sections (outside of urbanized Orlando corridor) on Monday night/Tue AM so Freeze Warnings will be on the table too.

Tue night-Fri...High pressure will settle over the area Tue night and produce very light to calm wind. Under clear skies, this will produce excellent radiational cooling and another chance for freezing temperatures over the interior in the lower 30s. Elsewhere, these conditions will produce the best chance for frost during this cold outbreak where temps fall into the mid 30s which should encompass much of EC FL.

High pressure will push east of the area Wed and return southerly flow will allow temps to warm back up quickly with max temps in the low to mid 70s Wed and reaching low to mid 80s Fri. Dry conditions persist with the next meager chance for showers arriving around Friday associated with the next cold front which is currently forecast to stall over north/central Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

High pressure ridge axis will remain across south Florida today which will continue to produce a SW wind flow up to 10 knots, turning onshore (SE) in a sea breeze near the coast this afternoon. Winds behind the sea breeze will be 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Seas 2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore.

A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday bringing scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few storms south of the Cape. Strong and gusty NW winds will develop behind the front Sun afternoon and quickly overspread all the local Atlc waters. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop with seas rapidly building to 12 FT in the Gulf Stream Sun night and early Mon. Occasional gusts to Gale force are forecast Sun eve offshore Volusia and Brevard. NBM probs show a 20-40% chance for wind gusts 40 mph or greater and only for a 6 hr period. So have held off on a Gale Watch. Conditions will remain hazardous for boating through Mon night. Winds will decrease 10-15 knots by Tue aftn but the north wind component will keep seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf Stream with a choppy 4-5 FT nearshore. High pressure will become centered over the FL peninsula Tue night then shift seaward Wed with a trailing ridge axis across south FL. Winds quickly veer to an offshore component and seas fall below 5 FT in the Gulf Stream.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

SW winds persist at the interior terminals through this afternoon, with the ECSB moving inland and causing the coastal terminals to become more onshore. Winds then become light and variable overnight. Patchy fog development from MLB southward along the coast cannot be ruled out, though confidence remains too low at this time to make a mention of within the forecast. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed. Early Sunday, a cold front approaches from the north, with increasing chances for VCSH and VCTS at the terminals. Winds veer NW at 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots possible. Anticipate any showers and storms to diminish between 20-23Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Warm and dry conditions continue for one more day today. Deep mixing will transport lower dewpoints to the surface allowing min RH values to fall 30-35% this afternoon over the interior. Southwest winds will remain below 15 mph. A southeast sea breeze will develop along the coast this afternoon which will be occasionally gusty but also boost the RH values. Dispersion values will be Very Good to Excellent, except generally Good over Okeechobee county to the Treasure coast.

A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday and bring a chance for showers but rainfall amounts less than 0.25" is forecast. Isolated lightning storms will be possible in the afternoon south of Orlando. Northwest winds behind the front will increase 15 mph gusting 25-30 mph and advect much drier air into central Florida. RH values will fall during the afternoon with potential for critical RH spreading south to Orlando late in the day and into the evening. Red flag conditions are likely Monday with min RHs 20-30% areawide and NW winds near 15 mph with gusts near 25 mph.

CLIMATE

Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Record Highs for today, Feb 21st:

RECORD NORMAL DATE HIGH HI DAB 21-Feb 87 1989 72 LEE 21-Feb 87 2018 74 SFB 21-Feb 87 2003 75 MCO 21-Feb 88 1989 76 MLB 21-Feb 88 1989 75 VRB 21-Feb 87 2014 76 FPR 21-Feb 89 1989 76

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 61 76 37 56 / 10 70 0 0 MCO 63 78 41 57 / 0 70 0 0 MLB 59 80 39 59 / 0 70 0 0 VRB 58 82 39 60 / 0 70 10 0 LEE 62 74 37 56 / 20 60 0 0 SFB 63 77 39 58 / 10 70 0 0 ORL 64 77 40 57 / 10 70 0 0 FPR 57 83 38 60 / 0 70 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ552-555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ570- 572.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ570-572.