textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot and muggy conditions will build with peak heat indices climbing to 102-107 this holiday weekend resulting in a Moderate to Major HeatRisk.

- A High Risk for life threatening rip currents exists at area beaches from Cape Canaveral northward with a Moderate Risk continuing southward. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs!

- Increased moisture, strong daytime heating, and boundary collisions will result in scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms this weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Independence Day... Deep moisture will support high coverage of diurnally driven showers and storms across east central Florida this afternoon and evening. Light southwest flow develops across central Florida today as a weak surface ridge axis extends from the western Atlantic and eventually settles over south Florida. This will favor the inland progression of the west coast sea breeze with a sea breeze collision forecast across the eastern side of the peninsula late in the day. The morning starts mostly dry with temperatures quickly climbing into the upper 80s and low 90s by noon. By early afternoon, scattered showers approach from the west while the east coast sea breeze begins to initiate isolated to scattered showers and storms in vicinity of I-95. A sea breeze collision in combination with storm outflow interactions will produce areawide peak coverage (~70%) of showers and storms between 4pm-7pm with coverage then gradually diminishing into the evening. Weak steering flow will again allow for slow moving or stationary storms promoting locally heavy rainfall and the potential for minor/ nuisance flooding of urban or low lying areas. Otherwise, tall storms which develop will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and localized downburst gusts of 45-50 mph. Be sure to practice lightning safety during any outdoor holiday festivities. When thunder roars, go indoors!

Outside of storms, high temperatures reach the low to mid 90s, and peak heat index values increase between 102-107F. A widespread Moderate HeatRisk exists today with a Major HeatRisk extending across the Orlando metro and through portions of the I-95 corridor. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, visit heat.gov.

A High Risk of rip currents exists at Volusia and northern Brevard beaches, north of Cape Canaveral. A Moderate Risk continues southward including southern Brevard and Treasure Coast beaches. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs!

Sunday-Tuesday... A mid level trough digs through the midwest U.S. on Sunday, moving through the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday. A broad, weak surface low begins to develop near the base of the trough, and a weak front sags into the southeast U.S. Monday and Tuesday. A weak ridge axis near or south of central Florida looks to maintain influence of the local synoptic pattern, keeping the trough and surface boundary north of the area. Continued deep moisture and light south to southwest flow will support a pattern of high afternoon and evening rain chances each day. Light flow through the column will keep the potential for locally heavy rainfall in slow moving or stationary storms. Although temperatures remain warm aloft (-7C to -6C), occasional pulses of vorticity could allow for a localized stronger storm capable of frequent lightning and gusty winds. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s follow a gradual warming trend, increasing a degree or two each day. Peak heat index values of 102-107F Sunday and Monday may near Heat Advisory criteria across portions of the area Tuesday, and trends will be monitored. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect those without adequate cooling and hydration.

Wednesday-Friday... Mid level troughing and the associated area of surface low pressure move offshore Wednesday with a subsequent, weaker shortwave passing the southeast U.S. into late week. Despite some broadening of the surface ridge axis in vicinity of the local area, south to southwest flow persists. A layer of dry air forecast to develop in the mid levels may reduce overall rain chances mid to late week. Slightly above normal temperatures continue, ranging the low to mid 90s along the coast and mid 90s across the interior.

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Favorable boating conditions outside of thunderstorms. South to southwest flow persists through at least early next week, shifting southeast near the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Wind remaining 10 kts or less during the daytime hours increase 10- 15 kts each evening and overnight. Seas mostly 1-2 ft, but occasionally build to 3ft far offshore. Widely isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast over the local waters early each day with increasing coverage of scattered to numerous offshore moving storms each afternoon and evening through at least early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A tricky forecast for the United States' 250th birthday. High coverage of showers and storms this afternoon and into this evening is expected, with high confidence. However, CAMs have struggled to resolve the timing and placement of this activity, with very light steering flow and weak sea breezes leading to erratic storm propagation and an uncertain collision location.

For now, have attempted to time out showers and storms developing along the dominant (but still light) west coast breeze early in the afternoon and reaching the interior terminals including MCO/SFB by around 19Z. Then, a collision near the coastal terminals after 20Z, with TEMPOs lingering through around 1Z there. Will continue to monitor, but the bottom line is that most, if not all terminals, are expected to see brief MVFR/IFR reductions, especially in stronger showers and storms, at some point between 19-01Z. Some activity could linger along the collision, current thinking is near the coast, through 2-3Z.

Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will all be possible in this slow moving activity. Otherwise, winds remain under 10 kts, increasing behind the sea breeze in the afternoon before becoming light again overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 76 92 76 / 50 20 60 30 MCO 93 76 92 76 / 70 30 70 40 MLB 90 77 90 77 / 70 30 60 30 VRB 91 75 91 76 / 70 30 60 20 LEE 93 77 92 77 / 70 30 60 20 SFB 94 77 93 77 / 70 30 70 30 ORL 92 77 92 77 / 70 30 70 40 FPR 90 74 90 75 / 70 30 60 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.