textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

- Cold weather concerns persist across east central Florida through the middle of this week, with a Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory in effect tonight and a Freeze Watch in effect on Wednesday night for portions of the area.

- Confidence continues to grow in a cold weather outbreak over this weekend, with guidance indicating sub-30 degree low temperatures and sub-20 degree wind chill values areawide. Residents and visitors need to start planning now for the cold weather.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the local Atlantic waters, improving late this week as high pressure builds overhead. A return of dangerous boating conditions is anticipated this weekend as a nor'easter develops within vicinity of the local waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Tonight...Quasi-zonal flow aloft will persist into the overnight hours, allowing the ridge axis from an area of high pressure centered across the southeastern US and the Gulf to extend towards central Florida. This will maintain northerly flow locally through the overnight hours, helping to advect colder air towards the peninsula. This air mass will also remain dry, with no chance for rain overnight.

Temperatures are forecast to fall once again into the low to mid 30s across a majority of east central Florida, with locations along the coast south of Cape Canaveral forecast to fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s. A Freeze Warning will be in effect tonight from midnight through 9 AM on Wednesday for all interior counties except Okeechobee and for all of Volusia County. Residents are encouraged to check in on neighbors, especially the elderly, to ensure they are well taken care of and prepared ahead of the cold. Plants, particularly those sensitive to colder temperatures, should also be protected or stored in a warmer location to avoid any damage. Finally, pets should be brought indoors and kept warm.

In addition to the freezing temperatures, wind chill values are forecast to fall below 30 degrees in many spots across east central Florida due to the persistent north flow and wind speeds of 5 to 10 mph continuing through the overnight hours. The coldest spots are anticipated to occur primarily in rural and suburban areas. Due to this, a Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect for most locations across east central Florida from midnight through 9 AM, though this excludes a majority of the Treasure Coast. Wind chill values this low can cause hypothermia for those without access to proper clothing and heating, so proper precautions should be taken. Space heater safety is also critical, so if opting to utilize a space heater, be sure to keep it away from flammable objects and plug it into the wall, not an extension cord.

Wednesday-Friday...The polar vortex responsible for the colder weather will remain situated across Canada into mid-week, gradually extending southward towards the Mid-Atlantic. A shortwave is anticipated to round the flank of this trough, digging across the Florida peninsula into Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will locally reinforce the cold, dry air mass situated across east central Florida through the remainder of the work week, with the surface high pressure forecast to gradually drift eastward across the southeastern US and towards the Atlantic as quasi-zonal flow returns aloft.

Locally, dry weather is forecast to persist across east central Florida through the remainder of the work week, with PWATs forecast to remain well below 0.5" areawide through at least Thursday night. This will keep rain chances near-zero through Thursday. Moisture begins to gradually return to the area on Friday ahead of a pattern change into Friday night, with isolated rain chances possible out across the offshore waters. Rain chances will continue to evade the peninsula through Friday afternoon, though.

Another cold night is anticipated across east central Florida Wednesday night into Thursday morning thanks to the reinforcement of that cold air mass on Wednesday. Temperatures once again are slated to fall into the 30s across much of the area, with a Freeze Watch currently in effect across the interior counties and inland Volusia. HREF and NBM guidance are currently maintaining a 30-50% chance of temperatures falling below freezing in these locations, so will continue to closely monitor trends over the next few model runs. Northwesterly winds are forecast Wednesday night, remaining around 5 to 7 mph. There is a 40-50% chance of wind chill values falling below 30 degrees across most of east central Florida, so also cannot rule out the potential need for a Cold Weather Advisory. Beyond Wednesday night and Thursday morning, a slight warming trend is anticipated across east central Florida, with highs returning to the 60s and even low 70s in some spots on Friday, with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Friday Night-Monday...While focus on the near-term cold weather is important, there should be special attention paid to the anticipated sharp drop in temperatures into this weekend. Friday night, the westward flank of the polar vortex is forecast to swing southeastward from the Great Lakes region, becoming a strong cut- off low in the mid-levels near the Carolinas and Georgia into Saturday. This mid-level low is then anticipated to swing northeastward out across the Atlantic, riding along the east coast of the US through late weekend. This mid-level pattern supports the development of a nor'easter within the vicinity of Florida, with the low first developing across the Gulf and moving across the Florida peninsula Friday night into Saturday. This would lead to a return of 40-60% rain chances areawide Friday night into Saturday, with rain chances gradually decreasing as the nor'easter moves out across the Atlantic and then lifts northward. Northwesterly winds are forecast to increase rapidly behind the low as the pressure gradient sharply tightens, with winds of 20 to 30 mph areawide possible Saturday through Saturday night. By Sunday, a return of high pressure across the southeastern US will lead to decreasing rain chances and lighter winds areawide, continuing into the start of next week.

The strong northwesterly flow on Saturday is anticipated to advect a cold air mass towards east central Florida, with guidance indicating a sharp decrease in temperatures areawide Saturday night. There is increasing consistency and confidence that east central Florida could see some of its coldest temperatures since 2010, with sub-30 temperatures being forecast nearly areawide on Saturday and Sunday nights. There is also growing confidence in hard freeze conditions (temperatures <= 27 degrees), with NBM guidance showing a 50-80% chance of these temperatures across east central Florida on Saturday and Sunday nights. Cold temperatures will also persist into Monday night, with forecasted values remaining well below normal values. Another cause for concern are wind chill values, especially given the windy conditions on Saturday night. Wind chills of 20 degrees and less are currently being forecast within the deterministic forecast both Saturday and Sunday nights, which leads to high concerns for those without adequate housing, heat, and clothing. With the deterministic guidance already hinting at below 20 degree wind chill values, Extreme Cold Watches and Warnings may be needed over the weekend for a majority of east central Florida. Overall, residents and visitors need to be prepared for the cold outbreak this upcoming weekend. Start planning now on how to protect the four P's; people, pets, plants, and pipes.

MARINE

Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue to gradually improve through tonight as high pressure extends towards the local waters. A brief surge of northerly winds and seas on Wednesday night could lead to a redevelopment of poor conditions across the offshore waters, but this will be relatively short-lived. Thursday and Friday, generally favorable boating conditions are forecast as the high sits overhead, with winds falling below 10 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet forecast. By Friday night, rain chances increase as a low moves across the Florida peninsula from the Gulf, strengthening into a nor'easter by Saturday. Increasing northwesterly winds behind the low of 30 to 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots will be possible, causing seas to rapidly deteriorate and become dangerous into Saturday. Boating conditions are then anticipated to remain hazardous to dangerous through the remainder of the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1224 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Mainly VFR conditions continue. Will monitor for some marine stratocu brushing coastal terminals with cloud bases 025-035 AGL. Pressure gradient continues to slowly weaken into this afternoon allowing northerly winds and gusts to diminish to 7-10 knots at MCO/SFB/DAB. Coastal terminals (MLB-SUA) will hold onto 10-14 knots with gusts of 20-22 knots through at least 18Z, then show a decrease by sunset. Light NWRLY winds tonight and northerly wind speeds, again, on Wed 6-10 kts areawide with conditions remaining dry.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Dry air will remain in place across the Florida peninsula this week, resulting in RH values falling below 35% Wednesday nearly areawide and across portions of the interior on Thursday. While winds are anticipated to remain below critical thresholds, sensitive fire weather concerns will be high due to the low RH values. Moisture improves by Friday, but the development of a nor'easter within the vicinity of Florida late Friday into Saturday will lead to a return of sensitive fire weather conditions over the weekend and into early next week as dry, cold air returns to the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 31 60 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 34 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 37 63 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 39 64 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 31 59 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 32 61 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 35 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 39 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347- 547-647.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-570.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ572-575.