textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Drier air will result in lower than normal shower and storm chances today. Increasing moisture into late week and through the weekend will then allow rain chances to return to near to above normal values.

- Near to above-normal afternoon temperatures will persist through the period with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each day. Practicing heat safety will be key to avoid heat-related illness!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Today... A surface ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic lifts into north Florida, keeping east to southeast flow in place locally. A few showers which develop over the Atlantic waters may move onshore portions of the Treasure Coast early in the day. Otherwise, a dry airmass (PWAT ~1.4-1.6") will favor below normal diurnal rain chances, and low coverage (10-20%) of afternoon/evening showers and storms should be limited to portions of the far interior and the western side of the peninsula. An isolated lightning storm across the interior that mixes with dry air aloft will be capable of localized gusty winds of 40-50 mph. With limited rain chances, hot conditions are forecast. Highs will range the low 90s along the coast and near Lake Okeechobee while reaching the mid to upper 90s across portions of the north interior in vicinity of I-4. The drier airmass should aid in keeping peak heat index values below Heat Advisory Criteria, and values are forecast to mostly range 100-105F.

Friday-Saturday... Onshore flow continues on Friday as the surface ridge axis remains near to north of the local area. Moisture is advected from the south and east as a weak disturbance passes south of the area. Rounds of isolated to scattered showers may move onshore portions of the southern Brevard and Treasure Coast early Friday before coverage looks to become more diurnally driven into the afternoon. Pockets of drier are may limit rain chances across the far north with scattered to locally numerous (~30-60%) afternoon/evening showers and storms primarily forecast from Sanford/Leesburg southward. The local pattern begins to shift Saturday as weak low pressure develops offshore the mid Atlantic coast and high pressure is nudged south and west. In response, winds turn offshore out of the southwest. The plume of deeper moisture remains spread across east central Florida, and scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast along a sea breeze collision with the greatest coverage from the Orlando Metro southward (40-60%). A few stronger storms each day will be capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours.

Increasing rain chances may allow temperatures to fall a degree or two on Friday, and highs mostly range the low to mid 90s. However, warmer temperatures quickly return Saturday as low-level winds shift offshore (southwest) and the axis of high pressure aloft slides slightly southward over the central Florida peninsula. Low 90s continue along the coast and near Lake Okeechobee on Saturday while temperatures reach the mid to upper 90s across the north interior including areas of the Orlando Metro. Will need to watch for peak heat index values near Heat Advisory Criteria across portions of the area on Saturday, and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk will impact those without adequate cooling and hydration.

Sunday-Wednesday... Deep moisture continues to spread east central Florida through the first half of next week as a cold front slowly sags across the southeast U.S. Offshore flow out of the southwest will favor a sea breeze collision across the eastern side of the peninsula late each day. This should result in a pattern of scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Outside of showers and storms, high temperatures are forecast to trend a degree or two above normal for most locations, ranging the low to mid 90s.

MARINE

Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mostly favorable winds and seas through early next week. The Atlantic ridge axis will remain near or north of the local waters through Friday, maintaining a period of onshore (easterly) winds around 5-12 kts. By this weekend, the ridge axis will shift south of the local waters. Light south to southwest winds develop Saturday before prevailing offshore (southwest) flow (7-12 kts) develops through early next week. Winds locally increase and shift east to southeast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Seas mostly hold around 2-3 ft, occasionally increasing up to 4 ft far offshore.

Isolated showers and storms are forecast south of the Cape today, becoming scattered in coverage late tonight and into early Friday. Offshore moving showers and storms are forecast Saturday afternoon and evening, building in coverage Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 629 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mainly VFR conditions continue outside of ISOLD convection. Light winds become generally ERLY with speeds increasing 7-13 kts and some higher aftn gusts. Still drier overall, but will monitor for the Treasure Coast terminals during the morning and well inland in the afternoon for any convective potential. May need "Vicinity" showers along the Treasure Coast this morning and brief TEMPO groups as necessary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 76 90 76 / 0 0 10 0 MCO 96 76 95 77 / 10 0 40 0 MLB 90 78 89 77 / 0 10 20 0 VRB 91 78 90 76 / 10 40 40 10 LEE 95 77 94 78 / 10 0 30 0 SFB 95 76 94 77 / 10 0 30 0 ORL 95 77 94 77 / 10 0 40 0 FPR 90 77 90 76 / 20 40 40 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.