textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Later today, storm chances increase to 50-70% near and north of I-4, including Greater Orlando, with lesser coverage to the south. Rain and storm chances will then increase across nearly all of east-central Florida for the remainder of the work week.

- Storms that form will be capable of producing locally strong wind gusts over 45 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall. Minor flooding may result, especially in urban areas.

- Seasonable heat and humidity prevail for the next week. Highs in the low to mid 90s will feel more like the low 100s from late morning into the afternoon. Take frequent breaks in the shade or A/C and stay hydrated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Aside from a pair of troughs across New England and the Canadian Prairies, H5 heights are above normal over most of N America. A large ridge axis extends from the Desert Southwest to the Lesser Antilles. Near Florida, a weakness in the ridge continues to be carved out by weak ripples of vorticity. Through the remainder of the week, the pattern looks relatively stagnant. A broad trough developing from Hudson Bay to the Ohio Valley should reinforce the weak mid-level feature over the NE Gulf through at least Friday. Global ensembles then agree that by next Monday (8/31), a large mid-level ridge will overtake the Southeast U.S.

Within this setup, the near-surface ridge axis should remain near or just south of Central Florida through at least Friday. By the weekend and into early next week, low-level onshore flow is forecast to become established as the high-pressure axis moves north of the area.

A ribbon of slightly drier air sits over Central Florida tonight, with PWATs < 1.6". Guidance suggests moisture will increase slightly over the next couple of days and remain near to just above late-August norms thereafter.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

With continued light southwesterly flow and a slight increase in moisture, especially over the northern half of the area, we expect an uptick in showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Storms should be able to form on the slowly advancing sea breeze along the coast by early-mid afternoon. Later in the afternoon and evening, additional storm development is favored on boundary collisions with the sea breeze and a diffuse Gulf breeze. This later activity looks more likely along the I-4 corridor. Overall, rain chances range from 30-40% along the Treasure Coast to 50-70% closer to I-4. With lingering dry air aloft, we will be watching for a few strong wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph out of the strongest storms. Aside from frequent lightning, locally torrential rain rates over urban areas may lead to localized flooding. Quieter conditions return overnight.

Ahead of the storms today, expect widespread low to mid 90s with heat indices from 100 to 107 deg F.

Wednesday - Friday...

Sea-breeze-driven showers and storms are likely each day as moisture values return to normal. A few storms will likely develop near the coast in the early afternoon before a collision over the interior sparks the greatest coverage late in the afternoon or by early evening. Weak offshore flow in the mid-levels may drive some lingering storms back toward the east coast in the evening. Each day, rain and storm chances range from 50-70%. Our general summertime thunderstorm hazards are expected, with frequent lightning, wind gusts from 40 to 45 mph, and localized flooding the main threats.

Seasonably hot temperatures and humidity levels will continue.

Weekend - Early Next Week...

Rather typical late summer weather is expected to persist as August wraps up across east central Florida. Light onshore flow tries to become established this weekend as high pressure becomes situated just to our northeast. With no interruption to the moist airmass overhead, expect scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms, with the focus likely becoming more over the interior with slightly less coverage near the coast. Hot and muggy each afternoon before storms begin to form.

MARINE

Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

An axis of high pressure will begin to slowly lift toward the local Atlantic through the work week. Light southerly or offshore flow will turn onshore near the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. A few offshore-moving storms will be capable of sudden wind gusts and higher seas through at least Thursday. By the weekend, the surface high is expected to lift north of the waters, with light onshore flow anticipated.

With the afternoon sea breeze, SE winds up to 15 kt each day. Otherwise light S/SW. Seas less than 2 feet through early Friday, then 2-3 feet this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Light S/SW winds through 15Z then Atlc sea breeze will develop and shift winds out of the SE near 10 knots at coastal terminals by 17Z. A little higher coverage forecast today compared to yesterday esp across the north due to increasing moisture and continued light westerly steering flow. So focus for storms will be over the east central FL terminals roughly 20-24Z, possible spilling over a little past 00Z. Brought forward the VC term to DAB and LEE based on current radar trends. Have a slightly earlier TEMPO for Treasure coast terminals where sea breeze will develop first and potentially initiate convection. Potential exists for gusty winds 35-45 knots in the stronger storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 74 91 74 / 70 30 60 20 MCO 95 76 94 75 / 50 30 70 30 MLB 93 76 91 76 / 40 20 50 30 VRB 92 75 91 75 / 20 20 60 20 LEE 92 75 92 75 / 50 20 60 20 SFB 93 75 93 75 / 60 30 70 30 ORL 94 76 93 76 / 50 30 70 20 FPR 92 75 90 75 / 20 10 60 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.