textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- An inverted trough will usher in deep tropical moisture across the area, leading to high rain chances today and Saturday, and also maintaining a risk for locally heavy rainfall and mostly minor flooding issues.

- Poor boating conditions will exist offshore today, with a High Risk of rip currents at area beaches.

- Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves towards east central Florida.

- Hot and humid conditions will persist across east central Florida, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Today-Tonight...An inverted trough across the Bahamas will shift westward and across Florida today, ushering in deep tropical moisture, with PW values rising to 2.1-2.3". This will lead to high rain chances (~70%) today and continue the threat for localized heavy rainfall and mostly minor flooding issues across the area. Through early this morning, scattered showers and storms across the waters will push onshore, with coverage of this activity increasing, becoming scattered to numerous with daytime heating. Showers and storms will spread westward from the coast and across the interior through late morning and into the afternoon/early evening. While steering winds strengthen slightly today favoring quicker storm motion, high rainfall rates and any repeated rounds of showers and storms will easily lead to localized totals of 2-4" (potentially up to 5" in isolated spots) in a short period of time. This may lead to mostly minor nuisance flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas. However, should totals toward the higher end of this range occur, it could lead to isolated flash flooding, mostly in the form of more significant standing water issues on roadways.

Some pockets of drier air aloft, with DCAPE values of 600-800 J/kg, and a slight increase in low to mid level E/SE flow could also lead to a few stronger storms producing frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph as they push toward the west- northwest. Showers, storms and lingering areas of debris cloud rainfall will diminish into the evening across the interior. However, low level SE winds will still be able to transport isolated to scattered showers and storms onshore, continuing low end rain chances (20-30%) along the coast overnight.

Considerable cloud cover, onshore winds and higher convective coverage will keep highs near to a tad below normal in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. However, the moist airmass will lead to very humid conditions, which will still lead to peak heat index values up to 100-105F. Warm and muggy conditions will continue into tonight, with lows in the 70s.

At the beaches, a building swell and a moderate onshore breeze will lead to a High Risk of rip currents at area beaches today that will likely continue into Saturday.

Saturday-Sunday...As inverted trough shifts west, deep moisture (PW 2.0-2.3") will linger across the area Saturday, continuing high rain chances up to 60-70%. Greatest coverage of showers and storms looks to focus across the interior as Atlantic ridge axis north of the area keeps an onshore flow across the region. Typical summer-time storm threats persist with isolated stronger storms capable of producing strong wind gusts to 50 mph and frequent lightning. The moist airmass and a weakening of steering winds will also continue (and may even slightly enhance) the threat for locally heavy rainfall of 2-4" and potential for mostly minor flooding. Into Sunday, deeper moisture shifts north-northwest, as mid level ridge across the Atlantic begins to extend westward across Florida. This results in a slight decline in rain chances into late weekend, but scattered coverage of showers and storms are still forecast into the afternoon/evening (PoPs of 30-50%). An increase in dry air aloft will continue the threat for some stronger storms Sunday. Convection will wind down each evening this weekend, with mostly dry conditions forecast overnight.

Highs will rise slightly into the weekend, but still be close to normal, in the low 90s for most locations. However, max temps in the mid 90s may return northwest of I-4 on Sunday afternoon. As humid conditions persist, peak heat index values will also climb, ranging from 102-107F for much of the area. Lows will continue to range from the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Thursday...Atlantic ridge axis shifts back south across the area into early next week, and then slowly shifts farther south of the area by mid to late week as a frontal trough pushes into the Southeast United States. This will gradually veer low level winds from the southeast Monday to the south-southeast Tuesday and then out of the west-southwest Wednesday into Thursday. However, winds remain weak and the east coast sea breeze will still form and move inland each day. Mid level ridge shifts westward across the state and remains firmly in place through much of next week. This combined with advection of drier air will lead to lower than normal rain chances into next week. Forecast PoPs are currently no more than 20- 30% for each afternoon/evening. With coverage of showers and storms remaining isolated to scattered each day and with ridge in place, temperatures will continue to rise, with highs in the low to mid 90s each day. Will have to monitor for any Heat Advisories as peak heat index values may have the potential to rise to 108-110 in some spots.

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

An inverted trough shifts west from the Bahamas and across Florida today. Poor boating conditions will continue offshore today due to easterly winds around 15-20 knots with seas building up to 6 feet. Cautionary headlines continue for the offshore waters today. Across the nearshore waters, wind speeds will be 10-15 knots with seas 3-5 feet.

Into the weekend the pressure gradient weakens as the trough lifts north-northwest. Southeast winds decrease and remain below 15 knots Saturday and Sunday. Atlantic high then begins to settle southward into early next week with winds becoming south-southeast and speeds remaining below 15 knots. Seas respond to the lighter winds by subsiding back to 2-4 feet on Saturday and 1-3 feet Sunday onward.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast across the local Atlantic waters today, with coverage decreasing into Saturday. Some stronger storms will be possible, producing gusty winds and frequent lightning. Drier conditions are anticipated Saturday night onward across the waters.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Isolated to scattered showers are ongoing across the Atlantic tonight and will continue through the morning, with some of this activity pushing onshore the coast. Have included VCSH for all coastal terminals through the overnight hours and into the early morning hours. Activity will increase in coverage and move across the interior into the late morning and afternoon. Have included VCTS starting along the coast at 12/14Z, and across the interior at 16/17Z. Have added TEMPOs for MVFR conditions and wind gusts up to 20 KT in TSRA starting at 17/18Z for interior sites and ranging from 13 to 17Z along the coast (did not include TEMPOs for FPR and SUA since timing was too uncertain at this time). Activity will diminish by late evening across the interior, with lingering VCSH along the coast Friday night. Light northeast winds tonight will become easterly by mid morning and increase to 8-12 KT. Winds will slacken by late evening and becoming 5-10 KT overnight, with the strongest winds along the coast. VFR conditions expected outside of convection through the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 87 76 90 76 / 70 40 60 10 MCO 88 76 91 76 / 70 20 70 10 MLB 87 78 89 77 / 70 40 50 10 VRB 88 77 90 77 / 70 30 40 0 LEE 88 77 90 77 / 70 30 70 20 SFB 90 77 92 77 / 70 20 70 10 ORL 89 77 92 77 / 70 20 70 10 FPR 88 76 90 77 / 70 30 40 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.