textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of east central Florida today, with heat indices 102-109 degrees.

- High temperatures in the 90s and humid conditions will maintain hot and humid conditions through at Wednesday. Additional Heat Advisories will be possible.

- Increasing coverage of showers and storms late week and into the weekend; Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today-Tonight...A strong mid/upper level ridge over the plains drifts southeastward today, as a trough dips through the Northeast. Locally, ample moisture, with PWATs 2-2.15", and upper level perturbations will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. PoPs are forecast between 30-50%, highest south of Orlando. Coverage looks to begin after 2 PM, peaking in the late afternoon and early evening, before activity drifts offshore and drier conditions prevail overnight. Prevailing SW flow around 10 mph will pin the east coast sea breeze, which may locally enhance any storms. The main threats today will be lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 55 mph, thanks to DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. But, slow storm motions and deep moisture could lead to locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding in low- lying and poor drainage areas.

A Heat Advisory has been issued once again today for areas from Orange and northern Brevard Counties northward. Humid conditions and temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in this area are forecast to produce heat indices up to 109 degrees. A limiting factor will be an earlier start to convection than forecast. However, mid- level cloud cover looks to be lower than yesterday, favoring warmer conditions. Regardless, conditions will be hot and muggy across east central Florida. Be sure to practice heat safety today. Know the signs of heat stroke and take action, if needed. Very warm conditions persist through tonight, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Wednesday...The upper level ridge axis stretches eastward towards Florida Wednesday, as a surface front slowly sags through the Southeast. Slightly below normal PoPs are forecast under upper level convergence. However, deep moisture lingers over the peninsula, supporting scattered coverage in the afternoon and evening (30-40%). Dry air in the mid levels maintains DCAPE values near 1100 J/kg and the threat for a few strong wind gusts near 55 mph, in addition to lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. SW flow increases as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and the Atlantic ridge axis south of the area. Winds increase to near 15 mph Wednesday afternoon, with gusts 20-25 mph. Likely the hottest day of the week, highs reach the lower to mid-90s once again. Additional Heat Advisories will be possible, as heat indices reach 105-110 degrees.

As showers and storms drift offshore in the evening, drier conditions develop Wednesday night. However, will see isolated to scattered activity drift southward into areas north of I-4 into early Thursday morning, as the front continues southward. Overnight lows may not dip below 80 in some locations Wednesday night.

Thursday-Monday...Southwesterly flow prevails through most of the remainder of the forecast period, as the Atlantic ridge axis remains pinned the Straits of Florida. A low pressure system moves offshore from the Northeast US Thursday, dragging a cold front into the Southeast, where is it forecast to stall in the vicinity of north Florida. Support near the front and PWATs in excess of 2" will lead to above normal coverage of showers and storms into the weekend. PoPs 50-70+% across the area will linger into Sunday, before high pressure builds aloft early next week. Will need to monitor the threat for some locally heavy rainfall, with multiple rounds of training showers and storms possible. Most of the forecast area has been highlighted in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday. Enough lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts Thursday, with peak gusts near 50 mph.

High coverage of clouds and precipitation will give east central Florida a break from the persistent higher heat indices. However, highs are still forecast to reach the lower 90s each afternoon into the weekend, creeping towards the mid-90s early next week. In addition, peak heat indices are still forecast to reach 100-105. Breezy SW flow with gusts 20-25 mph Thursday will diminish into the weekend, as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly.

MARINE

Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail, as the Atlantic ridge axis remains south of the local area. SW flow will increase to around 10 kts this afternoon, pinning the east coast sea breeze. Near normal shower and thunderstorm coverage (30-50%) is forecast, with activity developing over land, then moving offshore in the afternoon and evening. Seas 2-3 ft.

Tonight-Thursday Night...A low pressure system moves offshore from the Northeast US through Thursday, tightening the pressure gradient locally. SW flow increases to 15-20 kts well offshore late tonight. Winds then around 15 kts by daybreak across the local waters reach 20-25 kts briefly Wednesday night again well offshore, before returning to near 15 kts Thursday. Seas build to 2-4 ft, with up to 5 ft possible north of Sebastian Inlet Wednesday night. Lower than normal coverage of showers and storms will become above normal by Thursday. Lingering dry air aloft will support a few strong storms with wind gusts to near 45 kts, as well as lightning strikes.

Friday-The Weekend...Boating conditions improve into Friday and the weekend, as SW flow diminishes to 10-15 kts and seas return to 1-3 ft. However, high coverage of showers and thunderstorms persists through the weekend. Boaters should remain alert for offshore-moving storms, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 142 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Light southwest winds become variable at times across the interior early this morning. A delayed east coast sea breeze will struggle to move far inland again today, shifting winds south to south- southeast along the immediate coast. Otherwise, southwest winds prevail, mostly remaining less than 10 kts. Scattered showers and storms are forecast across east central Florida this afternoon and evening with the greatest coverage south of Orlando and the Cape. Have VCTS at all terminals after 18Z/19Z with PROB30s mentioned at MLB/VRB/FPR (20Z-23Z) where there is slightly higher confidence in TSRA impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 94 77 95 78 / 30 10 30 30 MCO 95 78 95 79 / 40 10 40 10 MLB 92 77 93 77 / 50 10 30 10 VRB 92 75 93 75 / 50 20 30 0 LEE 94 79 93 79 / 30 10 30 30 SFB 95 79 95 80 / 30 10 30 20 ORL 95 79 94 79 / 40 10 40 10 FPR 91 75 93 75 / 50 10 30 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.