textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Above normal temperatures persist through Thursday, with values near record highs across the interior.

- Rain and storm chances increase on Thursday afternoon, with the approach of a cold front. Medium to high rain chances then persist into this weekend.

- Deteriorating beach and boating conditions forecast late this week, as increasing winds cause seas to build.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure over the area today moves offshore into the Atlantic through tonight, as a cold front approaches the area. Dry air aloft will help to suppress any convection today, with PoPs below 10% area-wide. Light southerly winds this morning will back southeasterly this afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Winds will be strongest at the coast at around 10-15 mph. The main story will be hot temperatures this afternoon. Near-record highs in the upper 80s to near 90 are forecast generally west of I-95. See the Climate section for details on records. Coastal areas south of the Cape will be aided by the sea breeze and cooler ocean temperatures, remaining in the mid-80s. Tonight, overnight lows remain in the 60s.

Thursday-Friday...Low pressure moving through southern Quebec will drag a cold front through the local area Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Mostly dry conditions prevail through much of the day, before scattered showers and storms begin to move southward through the peninsula into the evening. PoPs 40-70%, with the highest chances north of I-4. As the front moves south of the area by Friday morning, additional shower and storm chances will linger through the day, due to a passing shortwave aloft. The highest coverage looks to be generally south of the Cape, where PWATs remain above 1". CAPE through the period looks to remain fairly modest (near of below 1000 J/kg). However, could see a few strong storms develop due to building dry air in the mid-levels and cool 500 mb temperatures (-10 to -12 C). Although, increasing dry air aloft would also inhibit development. The main threats with the strongest storms will be gusty winds, small hail, lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours.

Breezy southwesterly winds 10-15 mph, with gusts near 20-25 mph, and dry conditions into Thursday afternoon will maintain hot temperatures. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s to near 90 for most areas, notably for southern portions of the forecast area. Even coastal communities that avoided upper 80s (and records) earlier in the week will feel the heat thanks to a pinned sea breeze. By Friday, northerly winds behind the front veer quickly onshore, with increased cloud cover and rain chances keeping highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows remain in the 60s, with the exception of northern Lake and Volusia Counties, which could see upper 50s Friday morning.

Saturday-Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge axis builds briefly back towards the Florida peninsula this weekend. However, unsettled weather aloft, with additional short waves, and increasing PWATs creeping above 1.5" will maintain medium to high rain chances. PoPs 50-70% Saturday increase further into Sunday, as winds veer form onshore to southerly and advect in the highest moisture of the weekend. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible, as the mid-levels moisten and CAPE increases. Rain chances continue through early next the week, with yet another cold front passage Monday night. Temperatures in the lower 80s through Monday fall below normal into mid-week behind the front and remain in the 60s and lower 70s. Will see lows drop, as well, from the 60s to the 40s and 50s.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through much of Thursday, as high pressure moves over the area today and weakens ahead of an approaching front. South to southeast winds this afternoon increase to 10-15 kts, especially at the coast, as the sea breeze develops. Winds then veer south to southwesterly Thursday. Seas 2-4 ft, with PoPs below 10% through early Thursday afternoon.

A cold front then moves through the local waters Thursday night, veering winds northerly and increasing coverage of showers and storms. A brief wind surge up to 20-25 kts Thursday night will require Small Craft Advisories for most, if not all, of the local marine zones. Regardless, these winds are forecast to build seas to up to 6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream by Friday morning. Onshore winds then prevail through Saturday, before veering southerly on Sunday, as high pressure develops over the western Atlantic. Winds 10-15 kts, though they could approach 15-20 kts offshore Sunday afternoon. Seas subside through the period, becoming 3-5 ft Saturday and 2-4 ft Sunday. Medium to high rain chances with isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue late week and into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated at all east central Florida terminals through the forecast period. Southerly winds become more east-southeast this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland, with LEE being more influenced by the west coast sea breeze and becoming southwesterly. Winds become light and variable overnight before picking back up out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible after 15Z. This increase in winds is the result of an approaching cold front, with rain and storm chances increasing after 18Z areawide.

CLIMATE

Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate sites:

Mar 11 Mar 12 Monthly March DAB 89 1967 90 1935 92 3/28/1994* LEE 88 2015 88 2001 92 3/26/2023* SFB 88 1974 90 2001 94 3/20/2003 MCO 91 1918 89 2001 97 3/30/1907 MLB 89 1962 90 1962 93 3/28/1994 VRB 88 1986 88 2023 93 3/31/2020* FPR 90 1997 89 1948 93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 66 85 60 77 / 0 70 40 20 MCO 67 87 63 80 / 0 50 30 30 MLB 67 86 65 79 / 0 40 50 30 VRB 66 87 66 80 / 0 40 50 40 LEE 67 84 59 80 / 0 60 30 20 SFB 67 87 61 80 / 0 60 30 20 ORL 68 86 62 80 / 0 50 30 30 FPR 64 87 64 80 / 0 40 50 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570.