textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- Flooding potential: Rounds of heavy downpours will produce localized up to 3 inches of additional rainfall today which could cause flooding of urban and poorly-drained areas. The focus area is Brevard and Osceola counties southward.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the coastal counties for ENE wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph through the day. Breezy/gusty conditions will occur over the interior as well. Breezy conditions are forecast through late week.

- Dangerous beach and boating conditions persist, including the risk for numerous life-threatening rip currents and rough surf. Minor beach erosion during times of high tide is possible.

- Drier conditions gradually return Friday into the weekend as a warming trend begins.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Today-Friday...The mid level trough axis slides east of FL today, but very stout and moist onshore flow will continue producing bands of showers pushing onshore. Rain chances remain high for one more day. Convection-allowing models suggest the focus for additional heavy rain will be from Brevard and Osceola counties southward with locally up to 3" of additional rainfall is possible. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Late in the day and into tonight, drier air starts to work south and cut into shower development (especially after sunset). Onshore pressure gradient will support strong wind gusts around 35 mph at the coast so have extended the Wind Advisory there through the day. Will be breezy/gusty inland as well. Rough, high surf continues at the beaches with breaking waves of 8-12 ft so entering the water remains highly discouraged.

Drier air overspreads the area Fri limiting shower chances to the Treasure coast. The pressure gradient loosens some allowing winds to decrease but it will remain breezy/gusty but no Wind Advisories will be needed. Seasonably high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with more sun than most have been experiencing lately. Surf conditions will remain dangerous with a HIGH risk of rip currents continuing at area beaches.

Sat-Thu...Mid level ridge builds over the area this weekend and persists through mid week resulting in dry conditions and a warming trend. Onshore winds will remain gusty this weekend at 20-25 mph areawide then decrease next week as low level ridge axis settles over FL. Max temps will warm a degree or two each day, starting with seasonable temps in the upper 70s coast/lower 80s inland on Sat. By Wed and Thu, upper 80s are forecast over the interior (Lake county) and low 80s coast. Don't be caught off guard by a return to more inviting weather at the beaches! A HIGH risk of rip currents has been extended through Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Dangerous conditions continue to exist over the entire local Atlantic waters. A tight pressure gradient along the eastern seaboard is causing frequent gale-force gusts and fully developed seas. The gale-force gusts will begin to decrease today, but expect rough seas to persist. From Friday onward, fresh to strong onshore breezes will continue as the high anchors over the Appalachians. This will prolong poor to hazardous boating conditions through much of the weekend.

The Gale Warning will transition to a Small Craft Adv later this morning and these Advisories will be needed for at least 2-3 days as winds (and especially seas) will be slow to decrease/subside. The Advisory for nearshore Volusia will be able to be lowered to a Caution, probably Sat morning. Seas 10-15 ft by this afternoon with winds ENE 20-25 kt. By Sunday, E winds 15-20 knots across the north and near 20 knots south waters and seas 5-8 ft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 608 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Onshore moving SHRA, MVFR CIGs, and breezy/gusty conditions will continue through most of the day, then finally conditions begin to improve after 20Z or so. Early this morning, persistent bands of +SHRA extend from KMLB-KSUA. HRRR guidance suggests this activity should break up/move inland by around 13Z, but confidence in evolution is very low. Have TEMPOs through 13Z, and will continue to evaluate. Confidence in convective evolution the rest of the day is low as well, with SHRA chances broadly increasing to 50-70% for most of ECFL through the afternoon, highest along the coast, and trends at the moment keeping most SHRA south of the inland terminals. ENE winds gusting to 25 kts inland and 30 kts along the coast early this morning pick back up to 30-35 kts again in the afternoon. Occasionally higher gusts in squalls. Rain chances finally begin to decrease later this evening, and winds begin to subside tonight, but gusty conditions could linger along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 63 77 63 / 60 10 10 0 MCO 74 63 79 63 / 70 10 10 0 MLB 76 66 77 66 / 70 30 10 10 VRB 77 66 79 65 / 70 30 10 10 LEE 77 61 81 61 / 50 0 0 0 SFB 76 62 80 61 / 60 10 10 0 ORL 75 63 80 63 / 60 10 10 0 FPR 77 65 79 64 / 70 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552-555-570- 572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ552-555-570- 572-575.