textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Gradually increasing moisture through the weekend and early next week will allow rain chances to slowly return to near and above normal values.

- Highs in the low to mid 90s will continue, with peak heat indices reaching 102-107F each afternoon, and potentially nearing Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area this weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Through Tonight...Scattered showers and storms have developed across areas south of Orlando this afternoon, with the east coast sea breeze just barely pushing past I-95. These storms are already producing frequent lightning strikes. Activity is anticipated to continue developing through the remainder of this afternoon, with the highest coverage anticipated to remain south of Orlando. The environment remains favorable for some isolated stronger storms, with frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours remaining the primary concerns. Weak westerly winds aloft will lead to slow and erratic storm motions, increasing the threat for localized flooding in any spots that see repeated rounds of slow-moving activity. Showers and storms are forecast to gradually diminish across the peninsula beyond 10 PM, though some light, isolated development across the local Atlantic waters (especially the Gulf Stream waters) cannot be ruled out overnight.

Temperatures across east central Florida remain on track to reach the low to upper 90s this afternoon, with the warmest temperatures anticipated near and north of the I-4 corridor. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM across Lake, Orange, Seminole, Volusia, and Brevard counties for peak heat indices of 108-110F. Overnight lows remain in the 70s.

Sunday...Broad, weak ridging will remain in place aloft and at the surface, keeping southwesterly winds generally light locally. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop, though west to northwest winds aloft will keep it pinned closer to the coast and result in greater coverage of showers and storms across the eastern portion of the peninsula. Shower and storm development will be further supported by a wave of energy aloft pushing southward across Florida during the afternoon hours, with PoPs ranging between 50-70% areawide. Frequent lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with any storms that manage to develop thanks to the energy aloft and a pocket of drier air above 700 mb. Additionally, with PWATs exceeding 2.1" areawide, heavy downpours are forecast with activity, and localized flooding cannot be ruled out. All of east central Florida is included within a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall on Sunday, with quick rainfall accumulations of 2-4" possible. Aided by the west to northwest flow aloft, showers and storms are forecast to move offshore through the evening and overnight hours, with activity gradually diminishing across the peninsula through the overnight hours.

Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to range from the low 90s across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee into the mid to upper 90s elsewhere, with the warmest temperatures focused near and north of the I-4 corridor. Peak heat indices ranging from 102-107F are anticipated areawide, with some spots across the north potentially exceeding 108F once again. Opted to wait and see if trends hold, and if so, would not be surprised to see another Heat Advisory needed for northern portions of east central Florida. Residents and visitors planning to spend extended periods of time outdoors tomorrow will need to remain adequately hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning in order to avoid developing heat-related illness. Muggy conditions will continue into the overnight hours, with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Friday...Broad ridging aloft centered across Texas and the Four Corners region will remain in place through Tuesday, with its eastern ridge axis stretching towards the Florida peninsula. At the surface, broad, weak high pressure situated across the Gulf and Atlantic waters will lead to continued offshore flow locally. Plentiful moisture, a developing east coast sea breeze, and some pulses of energy aloft will support convective development each afternoon across east central Florida. Coverage of showers and storms remains high at this time. By mid week, the pattern begins to shift slightly. Troughing across the eastern US will strengthen and extend southward, with 500 mb heights falling mid to late week as the mid-level ridge gets kicked westward. At the surface, the trough aloft will help push a decaying surface boundary southward towards the Florida peninsula, resulting in another surge of moisture as well as a tightening pressure gradient. Some guidance suggests this boundary will stall across the peninsula, slowly shifting south through late week. Southwesterly winds are anticipated to increase locally, resulting in less of a chance for the east coast sea breeze to develop. Regardless, the energy aloft from the strengthening trough along with the plume of moisture will still support scattered to numerous shower and storm development each afternoon across the Florida peninsula. Overall storm hazards look to remain fairly consistent each day, with lightning strikes, strong wind gusts, and heavy downpours all possible. This will be an active week, so flooding will also be a concern as the soils become further saturated by repeated rounds of rainfall. Showers and storms are anticipated to follow a general diurnal pattern Monday and Tuesday, with activity pushing offshore during the late evening and overnight hours across the local Atlantic waters. Wednesday onward, there is a chance for some lingering activity across northern portions of the area where the frontal boundary stalls. Trends in where the boundary stalls will influence this, so will continue to monitor.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal through at least Wednesday, reaching the mid 90s in spots. Widespread peak heat indices of 102-107F are forecast, with some locations potentially exceeding Heat Advisory criteria. This will continue to be monitored closely, and proper heat products will be issued as needed. The increasing moisture and resulting increasing cloud coverage and rain/storm chances will keep temperatures closer to normal Thursday and Friday, though muggy conditions will keep peak heat indices of 102-107F across east central Florida. Lower confidence in reaching Heat Advisory criteria Thursday onward, but regardless, heat safety will still be key for residents and visitors of the east central Florida area. Adequate hydration, frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning, and dressing in lightweight, lightly colored clothing if spending extended periods of time outdoors will help reduce the chance of developing heat illness next week.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Broad high pressure is forecast to remain situated across the local Atlantic waters through mid week, keeping boating conditions generally favorable through Tuesday. Southwesterly winds ranging from 5 to 15 knots are forecast, with the highest winds forecast in the afternoon and evening hours. Seas of 2 to 4 feet are anticipated. Isolated to scattered offshore-moving showers and storms will be possible, particularly during the late afternoon and into the overnight hours. Lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and heavy downpours will be possible with any storms that develop.

Wednesday onward, the pattern shifts as a boundary drifts southward towards the Florida peninsula and the local waters. A tightening pressure gradient will result in increasing offshore winds to 15 to 20 knots, with some spots across the offshore waters exceeding 20 knots. Seas gradually build, reaching 4-5 feet across the offshore waters Wednesday through Thursday. The boundary will result in increasing moisture, with higher rain and storm chances forecast across the waters through late week. Storm hazards will remain the same.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Already have a few showers and storms developing near our Treasure Coast terminals this afternoon. Focus should shift west of those terminals after 21Z, with some increase in convective potential near MCO closer to that time and through sunset. Light winds today, bcmg ESE at the coastal sites up to 12 KT. Quiet conds expected overnight.

Much greater coverage of showers and storms are expected on Sunday afternoon. TEMPOs will be required in later updates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 94 76 92 / 10 60 40 70 MCO 78 96 77 94 / 20 70 30 70 MLB 76 92 76 92 / 10 60 30 70 VRB 74 93 75 93 / 10 50 20 60 LEE 79 94 79 93 / 20 50 30 70 SFB 79 95 78 93 / 20 60 30 70 ORL 79 95 78 93 / 20 70 30 70 FPR 74 92 74 92 / 10 60 20 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141- 144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.