textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- HIGH risk for life-threatening rip currents at area beaches today! It is strongly discouraged to enter the dangerous surf!

- Very warm and mostly dry conditions close out the work-week. A few showers and maybe a lightning storm could develop north of Orlando this afternoon/evening, and again late Friday.

- Hot and windy on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Max temperatures near record in the low to mid 90s, including the coast. Frequent wind gusts 25 to 30+ mph by late morning and afternoon.

- Rain and lightning storm chances increase late Saturday into Sunday as a front slowly pushes through. There is potential for stronger storms and minor flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Current-Fri...Weak high pressure ridge axis across south FL slides seaward Fri with the approach of the next low pressure system developing across the northern Gulf. Generally dry for most thru the period, but we do carry a small threat for ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms (20-30%) late afternoon/early eve periods thru Fri. The primary concern continues to be the above normal temps in the U80s-L90s. Generally offshore flow, but we will see a delayed ECSB appearance each afternoon along the coast. The longer this feature is delayed, the greater chances for soaring temps at the coast. A Minor to Moderate HeatRisk will build thru Fri, affecting those who are sensitive to heat and without adequate cooling and hydration.

At area beaches, a HIGH risk of rip currents exists, again, today. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Confidence is low, but followed suit with surrounding offices and added patchy fog potential in the grids/forecast (mainly interior) for late overnight into early Fri morning. Will need to monitor for high clouds which could put a damper on fog development. Min temps Fri-Sat mornings in the 60s areawide, perhaps some L70s along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts.

Sat-Sun...Above normal (near record) temperatures continue Sat as WSW flow strengthens 15-20+ mph with frequent higher gusts (25-35 mph) ahead of the next cold front. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through much of Sat before ISOLD to SCT rain (storm) chances (20-50%) build southward through the Orlando Metro late in the aftn/early eve. Rain chances gradually become more areawide Sat night (40-80% - highest north) into Sun (30-80% - highest south) as the front drops south. PWAT values will soar to 1.70-2.00" in closest proximity to the boundary. Weak shortwave impulses embedded in the near zonal flow aloft will aid convection.

A heavy rain threat may evolve late Sat into Sun and the Weather Prediction Center keeps areas south of Orlando within a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Sun. At present, primary storm threats will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours - potentially leading to minor flooding of low-lying and prone areas, esp those areas that receive multiple rounds in a short period. The good news is that storm steering flow (WSW) will be fairly quick at 30-40 mph, however, repeated rounds or any training along the boundary could increase rainfall totals quickly. A safe guess for rainfall totals this far out could be for 0.5"-1.5" areawide with this system (Sat- Sun night), but localized higher amounts, esp south of Orlando are possible.

Highs widely in the L-M90s Sat (pre-frontal) and may need to go higher than model guidance near the coast, as the ECSB is not forecast to develop. Max temps cooler on Sun in the U70s for most, perhaps M70s for coastal Volusia as cloud cover and rain chances increase and the front moves across the area.

With the already very dry conditions across ECFL, hot temperatures, low min RH and gusty winds on Sat will create heightened fire sensitivity on this day.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified.

Mon-Wed...Elongated surface high pressure extends from the Gulf Coast States across the Southeast U.S., while wedged between the former quasi-stationary front over south FL/FL Straits, and another frontal boundary strewn across the ERN CONUS. High pressure gradually weakens into mid-week getting pulled seaward into the WRN Atlc. Residual moisture from the nearly stalled front over south FL keeps low afternoon rain/lightning storm chances (20-30%) in the forecast, generally near Melbourne southward on Mon, then expanding northward Tue/Wed (10-20%). Temps near seasonal Mon with afternoon highs in the U70s-L80s, then quickly warming back up to the L-U80s Tue and U80s-L90s Wed. Onshore (E/SE) winds become gusty in the afternoons behind the sea breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

High pressure across south FL will shift seaward on Fri. Favorable boating conditions expected at least thru Fri afternoon as seas remain 2-4 ft, then gradually build back to 3-5 ft Sat, 5-6 ft Sat night, 5-7 ft offshore Sun-Sun night and gradually subsiding seas continuing early next week. Seas locally higher invof of weekend convection. Early day offshore flow gradually "backs" onshore near the coast this afternoon - southerly elsewhere. Some late day and evening convection (Volusia waters) may distort wind field early this evening before reverting back to an offshore component overnight areawide. Speeds generally AOB 15 kts, but could surge a little higher briefly tonight over the Gulf Stream (south of the Cape). Similar conditions for winds on Fri with another delayed sea breeze at the coast. The offshore wind component continues Fri night thru Sat (too strong for sea breeze this day).

Mostly dry, with ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms (offshore-moving) mainly over the Volusia County waters late today/evening, again on Fri, as a weak front remains draped across north FL.

A stronger low pressure system will approach the area this weekend, increasing SW/W winds and coverage of showers and storms, again, fairly quick, offshore-moving variety. While seas are expected to build slightly, wind speeds may increase 15-20 kts, at times esp offshore, Fri overnight thru Sat night and into Sun. Latest guidance increases wind speeds north of Sebastian Inlet Sat overnight into early Sun 20-25 kts. Winds will continue to veer N/NE behind the front Sat overnight into Sun, becoming more ERLY Mon/Tue with diminishing speeds.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 755 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A few showers/storms pushed through Volusia County and offshore late in the afternoon. Some convection lingers across north Florida this evening, but this activity should largely remain north of KDAB as it shifts offshore. Some guidance is hinting at areas of stratus and patchy fog late tonight through early Friday morning (~9-13Z) that would be capable of producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions generally near to south of KMCO. However, there is not enough agreement in the guidance at this time to include in the TAFs.

Dry conditions are forecast to mostly prevail tonight into tomorrow, but there will again be a slight chance (~20%) for showers/storms near to north of KSFB Friday afternoon. For now have just added VCSH at 18Z for KDAB.

Winds diminish tonight out of the W/SW and then increase to 6-9 knots tomorrow afternoon. The east coast sea breeze will be able to form along the coast, switching winds to the E/SE around 8-12 knots around 17-18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Hot and dry conditions build through late week with low shower and lightning storm chances, limited to areas generally north of Orlando late today and again Friday. West-southwest flow remains less than 15 mph each afternoon, and this should be enough to limit the east coast sea breeze's development and inland progression. MinRH becomes sensitive across portions of the interior each day into the weekend with values falling 35-45%. Very Good to Excellent afternoon dispersion is forecast through Saturday.

A cold front will bring the next chance for wetting rain across much of the area late Saturday through Sunday. West-southwest flow increases to 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts (25-30 mph) on Saturday ahead of the front which will greatly increase control concerns. Lightning strikes late this weekend will be an additional concern for new fire starts.

Widespread fog is not forecast, though patchy, locally dense, fog may develop toward Lake Okee early Friday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site Apr 30 May 1 May 2 DAB 92 (1953) 94 (2002) 95 (1953) LEE 95 (1991) 94 (2017) 95 (1990) SFB 93 (1971) 95 (2017) 94 (2010) MCO 95 (1971) 96 (1917) 97 (1906) MLB 93 (1964) 94 (2002) 95 (2002) VRB 91 (1975) 96 (1971) 94 (2002) FPR 97 (1971) 93 (2002) 95 (2002)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 68 87 68 92 / 20 20 0 30 MCO 69 93 69 93 / 0 10 0 20 MLB 68 88 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 67 89 68 94 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 69 91 69 90 / 0 20 0 40 SFB 68 92 69 93 / 10 10 0 30 ORL 70 92 70 92 / 0 10 0 30 FPR 66 89 67 94 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.