textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- High coverage of rain and lightning storms are expected each day through early next week. While this rainfall will be beneficial to drought conditions, multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall over the same areas could lead to increasing flooding concerns.

- Coverage of showers and storms will be highest near the coast, as west to northwest flow opposes the east coast sea breeze.

- Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures through early next week before temperatures become slightly below normal by mid- week next week as a cool front stalls across central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Today-Tonight... High pressure aloft will stay in place across the southern US as a series of troughs push into the NE US from Canada and push offshore. At the surface, elongated ridging stretching across the Straits of Florida and the northern Carribean will remain in place, resulting in west to northwest flow prevailing, with winds around 10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon, remaining pinned closer to the coast. This will result in the sea breeze collision occurring on the eastern side of the peninsula, along the coast.

Deep tropical moisture remains in place over east central Florida, with forecast PW values of 2.0-2.2". This will support high coverage (50-80 percent) of showers and lightning storms today, with the highest chances of convection occurring in the afternoon before moving offshore into the evening. Widespread rainfall accumulations of 1.5-2.5" are expected, with isolated totals of 3+" will be possible. However, localized flooding concerns may develop in areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100. Overnight lows will be seasonable with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Sunday... Upper level trough across the NE US will push offshore this weekend as high pressure across the south remains in place. At the surface, elongated ridging stretching across the Straits of Florida and the northern Carribean will remain in place through the weekend, resulting in west to northwest flow prevailing. Much like today, winds will remain around 10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form on Sunday afternoon, once again remaining pinned along the coast. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place most days as a couple shortwaves traverse across the area aloft, although some slight drying is forecast on Saturday. This will maintain the higher rain and lightning storm chances across the area, with a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance of rain on Saturday and a high (60-80 percent) chance of rain on Sunday. The highest chance for convection will occur in the afternoon before pushing offshore into the evening. Widespread accumulations of 1.5- 2.5" are expected, with isolated totals of of 3+" will be possible through the weekend. However, localized flooding concerns may develop in areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over multiple days in a row, especially for urban areas.

Seasonable temperatures are forecast each day, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. Warm conditions overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Thursday... Another upper level trough will move offshore of the northeast US into mid week. High pressure remains south of the local area through early next week as a cool front shifts southward through the southern US. As the front approaches the Florida peninsula, it is forecast to slow, stalling at times into mid- week. Some uncertainty remains due to model disagreements continuing on where this front will stall and how far south the front will travel. However, models are becoming in better agreement with the front making it to central Florida before stalling. Regardless of which model solution ends up occurring, deep moisture, with forecast PW values 1.8-2.0"), will remain in place, especially along the boundary. Thus, high coverage of showers and lightning storms (50-70 percent) are forecast each day, especially in the afternoon. Exact rainfall amounts and placement will be dependent on where the boundary is located. However, widespread rainfall amounts of 1+" are expected. Because of this, locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat along the front, which may exacerbate any flooding concerns that develop through the weekend. Temperatures will be seasonable early in the week, becoming slightly below normal into mid week as the aforementioned cold front reaches the area.

MARINE

Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Today-Tuesday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the period. High pressure south of the area will linger there into early next week, maintaining offshore flow around 15 kts or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form near the coast most days through through the period, turning the winds onshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop near the coast each afternoon before pushing offshore through the evening and overnight hours. Seas 1-3ft through the weekend before building to 3- 5ft on Monday through mid-week. Passing disturbances could support ISO-SCT SHRA later tonight into Saturday morning. Current guidance suggests Saturday afternoon-evening TSRA/SHRA could develop on the early side, but push eastward and offshore fairly quickly.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Surface winds from the NW-NNW 5-10 kts shift NE-ENE behind the east coast sea breeze, and could become light/VRB at times. Low confidence in convective evolution, and will need to play TAFs by ear. Overall, SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA have already developed, and coverage is expected to increase through the evening, peaking around 22Z on the sea breeze collision INVOF KMCO and other inland terminals. Storm motion to the south at the moment along the sea breeze boundaries could lead to training/repeated rounds of TSRA, and prolonged impacts at terminals. Storm steering flow becomes more NW again later in the evening, and could push activity back towards the coast. TSRA diminish after 00Z, but SHRA could linger as late as 04Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 88 74 87 / 50 70 20 80 MCO 74 88 74 89 / 60 50 20 80 MLB 76 89 76 88 / 40 50 20 80 VRB 75 90 75 89 / 40 40 20 80 LEE 75 88 75 89 / 40 50 20 70 SFB 74 90 75 90 / 60 50 10 80 ORL 75 88 76 89 / 60 50 10 80 FPR 74 89 74 88 / 40 40 20 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.