textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Expect another round of scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms this afternoon/evening, concentrating with 40-60% coverage near and west of Orlando late afternoon and evening. Localized torrential rainfall amounts exceeding 3", brief wind gusts to around 40-45 mph, and frequent lightning will accompany the strongest storms.

- The High Risk of life-threatening rip currents has been extended through Memorial Day. Continue to refrain from swimming in the Atlantic. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk continues as highs jump into the lower 90s over the interior.

- Storm chances decrease on Memorial Day and Tuesday. However, a pattern change is expected by mid to late week, bringing greater coverage of rain and storms areawide to Central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Current-Tonight...Another very warm & humid afternoon with highs well into the 80s to possibly L90s and peak heat indices 95-100F. Widespread Moderate (and localized Major) HeatRisk continues. Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C if you feel unwell. Surface high pressure ridging remains well north of central FL over the western Atlc allowing for a persistent ESE/SE flow. Wind speeds 10-15 mph, except 15-20 mph along the Space/Treasure coasts with gusts to 20-25 mph (esp behind local sea breeze) and some gusts to 30 mph along the coast. Winds will become light during the evening and overnight periods.

Active convection early across the Volusia coast/adjacent coastal waters and north Brevard. This activity and convective trend will spread inland this afternoon and early evening with coverage and intensity (40-60%) of storms increasing. Boundary collisions will keep convection going over the interior thru mid/late evening, with debris rainfall/cloud-cover gradually diminishing late evening and overnight. Primary storm impacts include wind gusts 40-45 mph locally, frequent lightning strikes, perhaps some small hail, and prolific rainfall rates for a short period of time as activity will be slow/erratic-moving. Localized rainfall amounts of 2-4" with minor/nuisance flooding also possible.

Additional ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower/ISOLD storm activity will be forecast again across the adjacent coastal waters overnight; some of which may affect coastal locales into Mon morning. Overnight lows remain above normal in the 70s with conditions humid.

A HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents along with rough surf continues thru the holiday weekend at ALL central FL Atlc beaches. Entering the dangerous surf remains strongly discouraged.

Memorial Day-Tue Night...The surface ridge axis does slide further southward slowly, but stays north of ECFL. Aloft, mid-level ridging remains firm off of the southeast U.S. coast keeping a tight grip over the immediate western Atlc and FL peninsula. While this will promote more subsidence across the area, latest model guidance keeps PWAT values generally 1.50-1.80" across the area which is more moist than recent model runs. Still we are expecting less coverage (20-40% Mon & 20-50% Tue) than recent days. Persistence for highs in the U80s to L90s with peak heat indices well into the 90s to possibly L100s (locally). Warm mins in the 70s to possibly around 80F at the coast/barrier islands thanks in part to onshore breezes here. The risk of heat-related illness continues, especially for those with compromised health continues. Consistent SERLY flow at the surface.

Wed-Next Weekend...Mid-level ridging over the western Atlc remains forecast to weaken sliding further seaward past mid-week as an unsettled weather pattern begins to unfold. Shortwave troughing aloft does pass across the FL peninsula late Wed into Thu, before a brief stint of shortwave ridging pushes across the State late Thu into Fri, then additional shortwave troughs/impulses move across the region into the weekend. Surface high pressure will also weaken and slide further south/east into the wrn Atlc. SE/S flow (finally) becomes more offshore by Sat (previous Fri) and southerly on Sat. PoPs generally 60-70% (locally 80%) thru the period. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible practically each day with repeated rounds of precip with minor/nuisance flooding concerns.

Increasing cloud-cover from deepening moisture and rainfall potential should cut into high temperatures just a bit, with widespread highs in the M-U80s to around 90F (few L90s still) esp late in the period. Lows continue warm in the 70s with conditions remaining humid at night.

MARINE

Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

High pressure ridging remains north of the local waters thru early week, though it does begin to slide slowly southward and weaken into mid-week. Prevailing onshore (SERLY) winds with speeds 10-15 kts, but periods of 15-18 kts - perhaps up to 20 kts as the pgrad tightens into early week, esp late day/night periods leading to short stints for poor boating. The ECSB develops daily with some enhancement near the coast behind it as it pushes inland. ISOLD to SCT showers (ISOLD lightning storms) are forecast, esp nocturnal and during the morning/early aftn, with higher coverage beginning Wed and extending into late week as moisture increases. The threat for offshore-moving convection (aftn/evening) increases by late week. Seas 3-4 ft through early next week, except up to 5 ft offshore (esp) during times of wind surges and locally higher invof storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

TSRA/SHRA increasing in coverage to SCT-WIDE while pushing inland, estimated to reach KMCO and other Orlando area terminals 18Z-19Z, and clearing the coastal terminals around 21Z. Onshore flow expected to keep TSRA generally moving westward, clearing the Orlando area terminals by 23Z at the latest. Sea breeze collision forecast well west of the ECFL terminals, but TSRA/SHRA could push back towards KLEE, and chances for impacts there linger past midnight. Chances for onshore moving SHRA return to coastal terminals through the overnight and into the morning. Slightly drier air moving in Monday knocks rain chances down across the board a bit, but ISO SHRA and possibly a TSRA could still develop along the coast as early as 14Z. Could also see some MVFR CIGs between 14Z-17Z in the initial cu-field before lifting/mixing.

Breezy/gust SE-ESE winds 7-13 kts with gusts to 25 kts, up to 15-20 kts with gusts approaching 30 kts along the coast from KMLB-KSUA this afternoon. Winds decrease to 5-10 kts tonight, then become breezy/gust again Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 89 77 89 / 20 20 10 20 MCO 74 90 75 91 / 10 30 10 40 MLB 79 88 79 89 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 78 89 79 90 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 75 91 75 91 / 50 40 30 50 SFB 75 92 76 92 / 10 30 10 40 ORL 75 90 76 91 / 10 30 10 40 FPR 78 88 78 89 / 20 10 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.