textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Marginal Risk with strong to severe storms are forecast late this afternoon and evening with the potential for damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, small hail, and a less than 2% tornado risk

- A High Risk of rip currents exists at all east central Florida beaches through Thursday; boating conditions deteriorate rapidly on Wednesday

- Rain chances shift south with a "cool" front from Wednesday onward, accompanied by drier and cooler air through Thursday, before another warming trend into next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Tonight-Wednesday... KMLB radar imagery shows mostly dry conditions over east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate scattered to broken cumulus clouds moving east across the Florida Peninsula. Analysis charts show a cold front over the southeastern US which extends from weak low pressure (~1013mb) near the NC and VA coasts. Meanwhile, high pressure (~1017mb) is situated over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers (50-80%) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the late afternoon and evening hours as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with weak west-northwest flow. The 15Z XMR sounding shows ML CAPE at 1,500 J/kg, MUCAPE at 3,500 J/kg, PW at 1.63in, and 0-6km shear at 26kts, however low and mid level lapse rates are rather low at 5.8C/km-6.4c/km coupled with 500mb temperatures at -7.8C which suggests that large hail is unlikely. Additionally, an MDPI value of 1.1 is supportive of strong downdrafts.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening, mainly between 3pm-10pm. The hazards of concern are damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% chance), frequent lightning, heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 60 minutes), and small hail. Additionally, there a brief tornado cannot be ruled out (less than 2% chance). The greatest potential for a tornado is over Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties, as well as eastern Seminole and eastern Orange counties where CAMS indicate 0-3km SRH between 200-500 m^2/s^2, as well as 3km EHI between 1-3 coupled with MLCAPE between 1,500 J/kg-2,500 J/kg and 0-6km shear between 20-45kts. Scattered to numerous east moving showers (50-80%) and lightning storms are forecast into this evening. West-northwest winds at 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph are forecast to veer onshore into the late afternoon and evening. Rain chances will persist into the overnight before gradually diminishing into Wednesday morning.

Scattered showers (20-50%) and lightning storms are forecast on Wednesday as a "cool" front slowly moves south over east central Florida. The main hazards will be wind gusts to 40-50mph, occasional to frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and small hail. Drier conditions are expected into late week. Breezy east-northeast winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph are forecast. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast with mostly cloudy skies. There are no critical RH concerns.

Thursday-Monday... Drier conditions are forecast late week and into the weekend behind the front as high pressure (1020-1026mb) builds over the southeastern US. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast on Thursday (mainly over the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county on Thursday, much of ECFL on Friday, and portions of east central Florida on Saturday) before rain chances (20-40%) increase over all of east central Florida on Sunday. Easterly winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast through Friday. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast to gradually increase into the weekend before reaching the mid 80s to low 90s on Sunday and Monday. Lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s are forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Tonight-Wednesday... There is a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms tonight over the nearshore waters. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast this evening and into Wednesday as a "cool" front sags south over the southern Atlantic waters into Wednesday afternoon. The main hazards are strong wind gusts in excess of 34kts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Winds are expected to turn onshore overnight into Wednesday at 15-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts. Seas are expected to rapidly build Wednesday morning which is when a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect from north to south throughout the day. Seas to 5-7ft nearshore and 7-10ft offshore and over the Gulf Stream are expected.

Thursday-Saturday... . Drier conditions with isolated showers and lightning storms are expected on Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds over the southeastern US. East-northeast winds to 15-25kts are forecast with gusts to 25-30kts. Seas are expected to build from north to south through the day on Wednesday with heights to 5-8ft nearshore and 7-10ft offshore (20-60nm) and over the Gulf Stream. Winds diminish on Thursday from the east at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Seas gradually diminish to 4-6ft nearshore and 5-7ft over the Gulf Stream on Thursday. There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect through Thursday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A cold front moving southward across the Florida peninsula will bring continued VCSH to the terminals through this morning. Winds behind the front turn northeasterly, picking up to 10 to 15 knots. Gusts between 20 to 30 knots will be possible throughout the day, with the highest gusts focused along the coast. Conditions are anticipated to dry out through the morning and early afternoon hours. Periods of MVFR to IFR CIGs will be possible throughout today, with CIGs improving behind the front as the drier air moves into the area. After 00Z, winds lighten to around 10 knots, remaining out of the northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 70 82 71 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 82 68 83 68 / 40 0 0 0 MLB 81 73 82 74 / 60 0 10 10 VRB 81 72 82 73 / 60 10 10 10 LEE 82 67 84 68 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 82 68 84 68 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 82 69 84 69 / 30 0 0 0 FPR 80 72 82 72 / 60 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ572.