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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

- A prolonged period of cold, dry weather begins Monday night. A Freeze Watch is in effect for Lake and inland Volusia Counties into Tuesday morning. Cold Weather Advisories, likely!

- Breezy/gusty conditions this afternoon and again Monday and Monday night. Deteriorating boating conditions across the local coastal waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Current-Tonight...Dense fog and low stratus slow to clear this morning, esp along/north of I-4. Increasing S/SSW flow have aided to finally mix out the grunge from earlier. Through the day, low pressure across the Deep South will steadily track eastward. The pressure gradient tightens with aforementioned winds increasing to 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph this afternoon. SSW winds decrease, but still remain elevated a bit, at 5-10 mph/10mph this evening and overnight. Expect a very warm pre-frontal day with temperatures soaring into the 80s areawide. May be close to a few records. Please see the Climate section below. Mainly dry conditions continue into the evening, except for very ISOLD (~10pct) light shower potential across the local coastal waters.

Beach conditions will be dangerous, with a High Risk of numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents. Entering the chilly water remains strongly discouraged.

The low pressure system continues to head E/NE and will move off of the mid-Atlc coast tonight. This will act to drag a strong cold into the FL Panhandle this evening and into portions of north Lake/north Volusia by sunrise Mon morning. ISOLD to SCT (20-40pct) shower activity is forecast after midnight north of a Titusville- Kenansville line thru daybreak Mon. Elevated wind flow and increasing clouds will keep overnight temps mild with conditions muggy. Forecast min values in the 60s areawide.

As for fog formation overnight into early Mon morning, 925mb winds range from 20-30 kts off the deck (lowest across Martin County). This would suggest more of stratus (low cloud) formation Vs fog, so presently will leave absent for now. Future shifts can take another look if they wish to add some patchy mention across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County.

Mon-Mon Night...The strong front will continue to plow thru ECFL during the morning and early afternoon (Treasure Coast). ISOLD-SCT (20-40pct) precip chances continue areawide with rainfall amounts mostly light. The trend will be for decreasing PoP chances from north to south during the day. Lightning storm activity is not forecast at this time. Mainly cloudy skies early in the day with gradually improving conditions (north-south) thru the aftn. Cooler, drier air will advect southward behind the front with gradually falling temps further into the day. Breezy W/NW winds will follow. A range of highs for this day will be L70s north of I-4 with M-U70s southward, perhaps a few 80 degree readings near Vero Beach south. L80s for much of Martin County. Dewpoints in the M-U60s at the start of the period will bottom out into the 40s by early evening, further tanking into the teens/20s to L30s for most Mon night.

Much colder air will barrel down the peninsula with a vengeance Mon night. A Freeze Watch currently is in place for Mon overnight for Lake and interior Volusia counties. A Cold Weather Advisory is likely necessary for much of the area Mon overnight as well. Temps within the Freeze Watch may dip down into the U20s to L30s for a few hours, while M-U30s extend southward to near Lake Okee and coastal Volusia and interior reaches of Brevard and western Indian River counties. Elsewhere, temps range from the L-M40s along the Brevard/Indian River coasts and interior Treasure Coast counties, with U40s to L50s closer towards the St. Lucie/Martin coasts. Lowest wind chill values Mon overnight into early Tue morning will see widespread 20s and L30s across the entirety of the interior, Volusia & Space coasts, and M-U30s for interior Treasure Coast counties, save for near 40F to U40s for much of the immediate Treasure Coast. All of this as breezy NW winds continue 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts!

Tue-Sun...Previous Modified...Surface high pressure builds eastward across the northern Gulf Coast thru mid-week. This will keep northerly winds through the period, which may be breezy at times, especially along the coast. A reinforcing, dry cold front is forecast on Thu, prolonging the elevated northerly flow. Mainly dry conditions prevail, as PWATs generally remain 0.6" or less thru at least Sat. The main focus will be the abnormally persistent pattern of well below normal temperatures. High temperatures in the 50s to M60s (few U60s far south) are forecast thru the work-week and quite possibly into the weekend, ranging from as much as 10-15 degrees below normal each day. Overnight lows in the 30s and L40s will also continue, so will need to continue to monitor the threat for freezing temperatures in the normally colder spots, as well as lowest wind chills/apparent temps below 30 degrees. Expect to see continued cold weather headlines through the week.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions exist, as S/SSW winds increase ahead of an approaching strong cold front and swell builds. Wind speeds 15-20 kts will increase to 20-25 kts offshore north of Sebastian Inlet tonight. Seas building 3-6 ft near shore and 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream. Small craft should Exercise Caution over the near shore waters into early evening, with a Small Craft Advisory offshore.

Conditions will remain unfavorable through much of the upcoming week. A cold front will move through the local waters Mon, veering winds northwesterly and increasing to 20-30 kts by Mon night. Seas respond accordingly, building to 8-12 ft in the Gulf Stream and 6-8 ft near shore. Scattered showers will accompany the front and cannot rule out a lightning strike or two, mainly over the Gulf Stream. While winds will slacken to 15-20 kts Tue and 15 kts or less Wed, seas will be slow to subside and remain poor to hazardous for portions of the waters into Wed morning. By Thu, a reinforcing, dry cold front will deteriorate conditions once again. After Mon afternoon, no precipitation is forecast through late work-week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 705 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conditions to start this evening. However, stratus is forecast to develop across west central FL and expand eastward across much of the region into tonight, producing mostly IFR cigs around 600-800 feet ahead of an approaching cold front. There remains a low (20% or less) chance for CIGs to drop to LIFR with this stratus. These lower cigs are forecast to reach KLEE first around 06Z and continue to expand eastward through the I-4 corridor around 7-9Z, with a mix of IFR/MVFR cigs approaching KMLB southward through 9Z and after. Cigs should gradually improve after 14Z, with VFR conditions returning by 17-18Z, but could see MVFR cigs hold on a little longer across KVRB-KSUA. A band of broken showers will also push through ahead of an along of the front, but for now have only mentioned VCSH in the TAFs.

Winds will be out of the S/SW around 8-10 knots tonight and become W/NW and increase to 13-16 knots Monday as the front pushes through, with gusts up to 20-25 knots. Breezy to windy conditions are then forecast to continue into Monday night, with winds out of the N/NW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Very warm temperatures as much as 15 degrees above normal this afternoon, as highs rise into the M-U80s. Breezy/gusty SWRLY winds 15-20 mph will gust to 25-30 mph this afternoon, with no precip expected. Min RH is forecast to remain above critical levels, though Very Good to Excellent dispersion could cause containment issues.

A strong cold front will pass through the local area Mon morning and early afternoon, bringing isolated to scattered showers overnight into early-mid Mon afternoon. Behind the front, a prolonged period of elevated northerly winds and critical to near-critical minimum RH will begin Tue and last through much of the work-week. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will result, though there will be days where the breezier winds do not coincide with the lowest RH.

CLIMATE

Issued at 147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Forecast high temperatures compared to the daily and monthly records for Sunday (today), January 25th.

FCST DAILY MONTHLY DAB 83 87 87 LEE 84 85 86 SFB 85 85 89 MCO 85 86 88 MLB 84 85 88 VRB 85 86 88 FPR 84 86 89

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 63 72 35 53 / 30 20 0 0 MCO 67 73 37 56 / 30 30 0 0 MLB 65 77 42 59 / 10 40 0 0 VRB 65 80 45 61 / 0 40 0 0 LEE 62 69 32 53 / 40 30 0 0 SFB 66 73 35 56 / 30 30 0 0 ORL 66 73 37 56 / 40 30 0 0 FPR 65 80 45 62 / 0 40 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ041-044-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ552-555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ575.