textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- A wet weather pattern will persist into the weekend and early next week. The main storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Current-Sunday...Very muggy conditions exist presently with temps and dewpoints well into the 70s. Surface high pressure ridging will slowly slip south into central FL during the day and further southeast & seaward on Sun. Light SW/W winds will transition onshore in the afternoon along the coast with ECSB formation and slow push inland (quicker across the Treasure Coast). A late day/early evening sea breeze collision both days this weekend will occur across the eastern peninsula - further toward the east coast than on Fri. Storm steering is light WRLY which will bring activity back toward the coast and across the intracoastal and near shore Atlc waters. Weak troughing in the mid-levels will exist along the FL east coast today with some mid-level energy available for aiding convection, though temps at 500 mb remain fairly warm at -5.5C to -6.5C, slightly cooler than on Fri. Similar temps aloft on Sun, though the aforementioned mid-level troughing will be mainly southeast of the area. PWATs remain near to slightly above 2", esp Cape southward today and perhaps some drier air pushing across the area on Sun. Mainly diurnal PoPs 50-70% today and 50-60% for Sun. Primary storm impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds locally 35-45 mph, and torrential downpours capable of 2-4" in a relatively short period promoting minor/nuisance flooding in slow-moving storms or repeated rounds. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for portions of east central FL thru the weekend.

Max temps near to slightly above climo near 90F to L90s. Humid overnight with mins in the 70s. Peak heat indices continue 100-107F ahead of daily storms.

Mon-Fri...Troughiness in the mid-levels moves slowly away from the eastern seaboard and further into the western Atlc early in the period. Mid-level ridging across the Plains will strengthen and become more expansive toward the Deep South/southeast U.S. Weak east- west oriented mid-level troughing will slowly slide down the peninsula becoming fixated across the central FL peninsula into mid- week. This energy will aid diurnal convection thru the period. Mid- level temps fairly consistent -5.5C to -6.5C. At the surface, a weak pressure pattern will remain in place. A weakening front will push into the Deep South/north FL early next week finally washing out by around mid-week. The NBM continues to favor higher than normal PoPs thru mid next week. Storm impacts continue to revolve around locally heavy rainfall. The ECSB will develop each afternoon, but will remain limited across the eastern FL peninsula into Mon, but much depends on the southward progression of the aforementioned weak frontal boundary to the north. Storm motion still light offshore thru Tue, then more light/variable into the rest of the extended. Generally near seasonal temps for highs (U80s-L90s) with lows in the 70s continuing.

MARINE

Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Thru Wednesday...Fairly weak pressure gradient in place with daily sea breeze formation as winds transition to ESE/SE 10-12 kts along the coast. Inland progression of this feature will be limited thru maybe Mon. Diurnal offshore-moving showers/storms into early next week as storm motion remains mostly WRLY. A few strong storms possible with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Coverage of storms will be fairly high into early to mid next week, esp in the mid-late afternoon/early evening. Overnight activity mostly confined to the Gulf Stream, where a few strong storms will remain possible. Seas locally higher invof storms. Seas 1-2 ft thru Mon night, building to 2-4 ft again by late Tue and perhaps 5 ft well offshore (Volusia Coast) Tue night/early Wed. Boating conditions mostly favorable outside of storms into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue to approach from the west-northwest this afternoon. In addition, the east coast sea breeze has initiated showers along the Martin Coast. Prevailing westerly flow around 6-10 kts has slowed development of the sea breeze along the rest of the east central Florida coast, and the sea breeze will struggle to push far inland this afternoon and evening. VCTS at all terminals this afternoon with TEMPO MVFR/IFR reductions within thunderstorms. Peak convection should clear from north to south late this afternoon and into the evening, lingering across portions of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast a few hours beyond sunset. Dry conditions are then forecast overnight. Light south winds into late this evening turn west again on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 92 75 90 / 10 40 40 80 MCO 76 93 76 92 / 20 40 20 80 MLB 75 93 75 91 / 30 40 20 80 VRB 73 91 74 90 / 40 40 20 80 LEE 75 92 75 90 / 10 40 30 80 SFB 76 93 76 91 / 10 50 30 80 ORL 77 93 77 92 / 10 40 20 80 FPR 74 91 74 90 / 30 40 20 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.