textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- A gradual increase in showers and storms is expected each day through the weekend. Excessive rainfall rates within slow-moving storms will be capable of causing flooding in urban and poorly- drained locations. Expect frequent lightning and spotty wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph from the strongest storms.

- Outside of the storms, seasonably high moisture and increasingly hot temperatures are forecast. With Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk over Central Florida, residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C if feeling unwell.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Please swim near a lifeguard.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Current-Tonight... A surface ridge axis extends across north Florida this afternoon keeping light south-southeast flow in place locally. The east and west coast sea breezes have developed, initiating isolated to scattered showers and storms. Peak coverage (50-70%) of convection is forecast west of Orlando late this afternoon as a sea breeze collision occurs. Weak shear profiles and light steering flow will allow for slow moving or stationary storms, and will need to monitor rainfall accumulations with the possibility of a few Flood Advisories this afternoon and evening. Activity across the interior lingers through around 9-10 PM with dry conditions then forecast through the overnight. Morning low temperatures remain muggy in the low to mid 70s.

Friday-Weekend... Flat mid-level ridging will persist over the southern U.S. through the weekend. A surface ridge axis over central Florida on Friday will shift southward this weekend. Seasonably high moisture will support a summertime pattern of scattered showers and storms, and developing light southwest flow should favor best coverage (40-70%) across the central and eastern side of the peninsula each day. Steering flow remains light, supporting a locally heavy rainfall threat with slow moving or stationary storms. Quick 2-3" rainfall accumulations will be possible and may cause nuisance or localized flooding of urban or low-lying areas. Otherwise, afternoon storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds of 40-50 mph. A brief funnel cloud or waterspout cannot be ruled out along chaotic boundary collisions.

Outside of afternoon showers and storms, focus is directed towards a period of building heat. Ridging aloft and light offshore flow will promote slightly above normal temperatures, mostly ranging the low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s inland. When factoring in humidity, peak heat index values increase 100-105F Saturday and Sunday. A moderate HeatRisk is expected across much of central Florida on Friday with a Major HeatRisk outlined across portions of the Orlando metro and northern Lake county. The Major HeatRisk then expands to include areas near, north, and west of I-4 and portions of Brevard county this weekend. This level of heat affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Protect yourself from the heat by limiting strenuous outdoor activity and taking frequent breaks in the shade or in an air conditioned building. Never leave kids or pets unattended in a vehicle, and look before you lock!

Monday-Wednesday... The upper level pattern begins to transition early to mid next week as a shortwave trough digs across the U.S. central plains on Tuesday and into the southeast on Wednesday. Stagnant ridging aloft is nudged south and east in response. The surface ridge axis remains south of the area with a period of southwest flow continuing locally. Deeper offshore flow will work to pin the sea breeze closer to the I-95 corridor, particularly by Tuesday. A diurnal pattern of showers and storms continues with greatest coverage focused in vicinity of I-95 Monday and Tuesday (50- 70%). High temperatures remain a few degrees above normal, mostly spreading the low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s across the interior. Muggy conditions look to persist with peak heat index values continuing to range around 100-105F each afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Favorable boating conditions continue through the weekend. Light south-southeast flow through the remainder of today shifts south to southwest into Friday as a surface ridge axis moves south of the local waters. Offshore flow out of the southwest then continues into the weekend. Local enhancements in winds 10-15 kts are forecast each evening. Seas 2-3 ft subside to become mostly 2 ft. Mostly dry outside of scattered showers near the coast each afternoon. Better chances for offshore moving showers will exist into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR outside of afternoon-evening convection. ISO-SCT SHRA has developed ahead of the east coast sea breeze, which has pushed inland of KMLB-KSUA, and forming from KTIX-KDAB. TSRA expected to remain mostly ISO until around 20Z, then increase in coverage leading up to and along the sea breeze collision after 22Z. Latest models put the collision INVOF KLEE-KISM, and likely to impact most/all inland terminals. TEMPOS for TSRA impacts 21Z-01Z. Convection is forecast to persist after 00Z, and could linger as late as 04Z. Mostly clear conditions the rest of the night. Another typical sea breeze SHRA/TSRA pattern expected Friday, with a collision near the inland terminals. Winds this afternoon- evening ESE-SE 5-10 kts, becoming light/VRB tonight, remaining light/VRB Friday until the sea breeze develops.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 91 75 93 / 10 30 10 30 MCO 75 92 76 93 / 20 70 30 60 MLB 77 90 76 91 / 10 50 20 40 VRB 75 90 75 91 / 10 40 20 40 LEE 76 92 76 94 / 30 40 30 40 SFB 75 94 76 95 / 20 60 30 50 ORL 76 93 77 94 / 20 60 30 50 FPR 74 89 74 90 / 10 40 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.