textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

- Isolated to scattered shower and storm development is forecast each afternoon across east central Florida through this week.

- A Moderate HeatRisk is forecast to gradually spread across east central Florida late week and into the weekend due to warm temperatures; adequate hydration and breaks from the heat will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors.

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridging over the western Atlantic maintains a ridge axis north of Florida, across the Southeast US today. Easterly winds prevail, increasing to around 15 mph this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, with wind gusts 20-25 mph. Rain chances begin to increase slightly south of Orlando (20-30%), as PWATs build from <1" to up to 1.4-1.6" by late afternoon. However, a dominant east coast sea breeze will continue to keep the highest PoPs confined to the western half of the peninsula.

While moisture increases today, lingering dry air in the mid- levels maintains DCAPE values near 900-1000 J/kg across southern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, though this will discourage updraft development overall, a few strong wind gusts near 50 mph cannot be ruled out in any storms. 500 mb temperatures near -10 C could also lead to small hail. Peak chances will occur this afternoon, though a few to scattered showers and a storm or two will remain possible along the coast overnight as cells develop over the Atlantic and drift onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast. Highs in the upper 80s along the coast rise into the lower 90s over the interior. Warm overnight lows in the 70s will remain near 80 along the coast.

Tuesday-Monday...High pressure remains off of the eastern US seaboard through the weekend and into early next week. The ridge axis remains well north of Florida, helping to fend off a cold front mid to late week. Meanwhile, an upper level low lingers near to north of the Bahamas. It's essentially a persistence forecast through the period, as onshore flow continues to prevail. The only changes are a slight shift to predominantly SE flow from E this weekend and an increase in moisture during the same timeframe.

Therefore, expect isolated to scattered showers and storms each day through the end of the work week. A prevailing easterly sea breeze will increase winds to around 15 mph each afternoon, with gusts 20-25 mph. The daily sea breeze collision will favor the far interior, if not western half of the peninsula. Thus, that is where the highest rainfall chances are for the afternoons and into the evening hours. However, could see overnight showers and perhaps a storm drift onshore each night, mainly along the Treasure Coast, as they develop over the Atlantic waters. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels will inhibit updraft development, but could lead to a few strong wind gusts (~50 mph) in any storms that manage to develop, especially along the collision.

Models are in good agreement that a slug of moisture (PWATs 1.7-1.8") will overspread the peninsula along SE flow late in the period. PoPs respond accordingly, increasing from 30-50% to 50-70% for Memorial Day Weekend. However, still plenty of time to watch how things unfold. Regardless, high temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90 this week, while onshore flow keeps lows in the 70s, possibly near 80 along the immediate coast.

MARINE

Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

High pressure remains offshore from the eastern US coast through the work week, with the ridge axis well north of the local area. Thus, onshore flow will continue through the period, increasing to around 10-15 kts each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions, with the exception of this evening into Tuesday morning, when winds across the offshore waters increase to 15-20 kts and seas build to 5 ft. Otherwise, seas 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each day, though onshore flow will prevent any drift back towards the east coast. Instead, the best chances for the Atlantic waters are expected during the evening and overnight hours, when cells may occasionally drift onshore.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 644 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Mostly VFR. A few showers are observed in vicinity of SUA early this morning, but otherwise quiet. East winds become breezy behind the sea breeze into this afternoon increasing to 12-15 kts with locally higher gusts. Inland TAF sites should remain dry, and the best chances for coastal showers remains at FPR/SUA.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

High pressure remains over the western Atlantic through this week, with the ridge axis well north of the local area. Onshore flow will prevail, increasing to 10 to 15 mph, with gusts 20 to 25 mph, each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon, with moisture increasing into the weekend. While onshore flow will keep most of the area well above any RH concerns, min RH west of Orlando could fall to between 45 to 50% during the heat of the day through much of the work week. Conditions will be fire sensitive in the afternoons, due to breezy winds and occasional lightning strikes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 87 75 87 74 / 0 10 20 10 MCO 89 73 89 73 / 20 10 30 0 MLB 86 77 86 77 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 86 76 87 76 / 30 20 30 10 LEE 91 72 90 72 / 10 0 30 0 SFB 90 73 89 72 / 10 10 30 0 ORL 90 73 89 73 / 10 10 30 0 FPR 86 76 86 75 / 30 20 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.