textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Afternoon showers and storms are anticipated across east central Florida each day through the middle of next week; storm hazards include frequent to excessive lightning strikes, wind gusts to 40-60mph, and heavy rainfall

- A 20% (low) chance of a tropical disturbance in the eastern Gulf tracking towards Florida Saturday and Sunday

- Hot and muggy conditions will persist with highs in the 90s and peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide. Practice heat safety!

- A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows isolated showers and lightning storms over Lake county moving east-southeast. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows partly to cloudy skies moving east- southeast over east central Florida. Analysis charts show high pressure (1021mb) over the eastern Gulf with a mid level trough over the southwest Atlantic. Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat index values are between 98F-107F degrees.

Isolated to scattered east-southeast moving showers (20-60% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous lightning storms with the highest rain chances north of the Treasure Coast, as well as Okeechobee county. This morning's 15Z XMR sounding shows MLCAPE at 1,371 J/kg, DCAPE at 874 J/kg, 0-6km shear at 15kts, a PWAT value of 1.73", and a 500mb temperature at -6.4C. Thus, the potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-3" in 30-60 minutes). Rain chances gradually diminish in the late evening hours after 8PM. Low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are forecast. Friday-Sunday... Rain chances increase on Friday and Saturday as a trough develops over the eastern Gulf and western Florida. The NHC has outlooked the eastern Gulf and the state of Florida with a 20% (low) chance of tropical development. Guidance has gone back and forth on the potential development of a tropical system; however, the ECMWF, as well as the GFS show relatively weak deep layer shear over the eastern Gulf and the state of Florida during this period coupled with current SSTs at 30C+. Additionally, the most recent 12Z model guidance shows a weak trough developing over the eastern Gulf before becoming a weak tropical system/low over the eastern Gulf, as well as the state of Florida Saturday into Sunday; regardless of any tropical development, this will result in increased rain chances with scattered to numerous generally east-northeast moving showers and lightning storms on Friday and through the weekend. Scattered to numerous showers (60-70% chance FRI/SAT and 70-80% SUN) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoons and evenings each day with the highest rain chances and potential for flooding concerns on Sunday.

For that reason, the WPC, has placed a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for western Lake county on Sunday. The main hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts to 40-60mph (< 5% chance of wind gusts up to 60mph), and heavy rainfall (1-3+ in 30-60 minutes with a 1 in 10 chance in excess of 3" up to 3-4" Friday and Saturday and up to 5" on Sunday). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Monday-Wednesday... Rain chances remain high for the beginning of the workweek as the aforementioned trough/low is stalled over the eastern Gulf or northern Florida. The WPC has outlooked areas mainly north of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county with a Marginal Risk (5-14% chance) for Excessive rainfall on Monday. Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers (generally 50-60% chance) and lightning storms are forecast each day. The main hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts to 40-55mph, and heavy rainfall (2-4+ with < 5% chance up to 4-8" mainly over the northern areas of east central Florida. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Currently-Monday (previous discussion)... Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through Friday. Broad high pressure will remain situated just south of the local waters, keeping winds out of the west-southwest at 10 to 15 knots through Friday. Seas of 1 to 3 feet are forecast. This weekend, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop across the Gulf, causing winds to shift to out of the south at 15 to 20 knots Saturday through Monday, with wind speeds slowly subsiding through next week. Seas are anticipated to build slightly, with some 4 foot seas possible across the offshore waters.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to move offshore through the late evening and overnight hours each day. Storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. Activity will slowly diminish across the nearshore waters, but ongoing development across the offshore waters cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The east coast sea breeze has developed along the east coast and will produce a wind shift at coastal terminals by 20Z. DAB was the first to switch. SCT SHRA began over the interior and will continue to push eastward toward the coast through the afternoon. Additional showers and storms are forecast along the sea breeze collision, generally east of Orlando and near to west of I-95. Any lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the area by 01Z across the interior, and 03Z along the coast. MVFR conditions along with gusty winds will be possible with stronger storms. Higher coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected on Fri so have inserted a VCTS at MCO for Fri aftn.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 91 75 91 / 10 60 20 70 MCO 77 93 75 93 / 20 70 30 70 MLB 77 90 76 91 / 20 60 20 60 VRB 75 92 75 92 / 30 60 20 70 LEE 77 92 76 91 / 20 70 30 70 SFB 77 93 75 93 / 20 70 30 70 ORL 77 92 76 92 / 20 70 30 70 FPR 75 92 74 91 / 30 60 20 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.