textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Mostly dry conditions will persist through the work-week, with just isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms mainly north of Orlando Thursday/Friday afternoons.

- Hot temperatures mid-week into the first half of the weekend (near record), especially over the interior.

- A long period swell building across the local Atlantic waters will promote High Risk of life-threatening rip currents this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Current-Tonight...Some nuisance sprinkles/light rain showers across portions of ECFL this morning and into early afternoon. Have attempted to handle this most recently with "silent" 14's (sprinkles) in the grids/forecast. Any areas that see any precip will only realize a trace to a few hundredths on average. Some earlier pockets of low stratus have been stubborn to dissipate, too, across the I-4 corridor. PSunny skies across the interior this afternoon with improving skies near the coast as the sea breeze ventures inland. Onshore winds being realized, with speeds cranking up to 15 mph this afternoon and early evening behind the sea breeze and a few higher gusts, too. The onshore flow has kept aftn temps in the L80s along the coast with M-U80s into the interior.

Winds return to light/calm tonight for Volusia coast and interior, while they may stay elevated 5-10 mph (onshore component) along the coast. We may have to monitor for some patchy fog (locally dense) development late overnight into early Wed morning, esp west of I-95. Otherwise, generally dry conditions prevail with overnight mins in the L-M60s, and possible U60s at the immediate coast.

Wed-Wed Night...Weakening surface high pressure ridging settles across central FL early, continuing southward toward the FL Straits by late in the period. Overall dry conditions prevail, despite a slight uptick in PWATs 1.1-1.35". With a weaker pgrad in place, light SW winds develop, though they will "back" (ESE/SE) along the coast in the afternoon with sea breeze formation. It will be a very warm Spring day across ECFL, as afternoon highs soar into the L90s, thus flirting with a few records over the interior (see Climate section below). The aforementioned sea breeze will keep temperatures a bit more modest near the coast, in the M-U80s. Despite the above normal daytime temperatures, overnight mins remain just a few degrees above normal in the M-U60s.

Previous Modified Extended Forecast Discussion.

Thu-Mon...The aforementioned ridge over the FL Straits will keep a weak cold front over north Florida. As the front stalls into Thu afternoon, rain chances increase (20-30%) generally north of Orlando. A few lightning storms can't be ruled out, though instability is weak, with low CAPE and warmer (-8C) temperatures aloft. The front will linger across north FL Fri, with quasi-zonal flow in the mid/upper levels, though weak embedded shortwave impulses will traverse the FL peninsula during this time. Mostly dry conditions return, with just a few showers (PoPs ~20%) and perhaps an isolated storm forecast for Fri afternoon across far northern Lake and Volusia counties. Highs will remain well above normal to near record in the U80s to L90s.

This weekend, the stalled boundary lifts northward into the Southeast U.S., as a stronger trough moves through the eastern U.S. At the surface, the earlier ridge moves seaward, away from the FL peninsula. A stronger front associated with the trough is forecast to move through central Florida this weekend and into early next week. Shower and storm chances late Sat afternoon (20-40%) across northern portions of the forecast area, increase in coverage (north to south) Sat night, then 50-60% areawide on Sun. Will need to monitor the threat for a few strong storms Sun, as temperatures cool aloft. However, models suggest the support along the front may outrun the associated precipitation. Regardless, scattered showers and storms are forecast to linger into early next week across southern portions of the area, as the front slows and stalls over the FL Straits. A cool-down to closer to normal highs follows the front, but not before temperatures soar into the L-M90s on Sat. Be sure to stay hydrated for any weekend events.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Poor boating conditions over the offshore waters into early evening, will gradually improve tonight, as high pressure builds over the area. Seas 4-6 ft offshore will improve to 3-5 ft areawide overnight. Some lingering 5 ft seas offshore continue to diminish through mid-week. Seas generally 3-4 ft through the end of the work- week, then 3-5 ft Sat/Sun, locally higher invof of weekend convection. Onshore winds this afternoon veer offshore through Fri, though they will become E/SE each afternoon at 10-15 kts along the coast as the sea breeze develops. Mostly dry, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms over the northern Volusia County waters Thu aftn, as a front drops into north Florida.

A stronger cold front will approach the area this weekend, increasing S/SW winds and coverage of showers and storms. While seas are expected to build slightly, winds may increase toward Cautionary criteria late Fri thru Sat night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 106 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Tranquil weather persists through the TAF period. VFR is forecast to prevail with NE winds 8-12 G12-18 kt today. On Wednesday, winds turn southwesterly in the afternoon, except TIX south to SUA where a sea breeze should turn winds out of the east-southeast again. No significant weather is anticipated at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast through the work- week. High pressure develops over the local area through Wednesday, with rain chances remaining below 15%. Easterly winds increase to 10- 15 mph behind the sea breeze this afternoon. Onshore flow will help keep min RH in coastal areas above 50%. However, interior locations are forecast to see min RH fall to 40-50%. Patchy fog, perhaps locally dense across the I-4 corridor, will be possible especially west of I-95 late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

As high pressure settles into the area Wednesday, winds become lighter (5-10 mph) and generally southwesterly, with the exception of the east coast sea breeze across coastal counties. However, drier air and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide will lead to min RH between 35-45% for all but the immediate coast. Generally Good to Very Good dispersion through Wednesday becomes Very Good to Excellent on Thursday as low-level westerly flow increases.

A weak frontal boundary across north Florida will promote an isolated lightning storm potential across the I-4 corridor on Thursday afternoon and perhaps again on Fri, otherwise generally dry conditions through Friday for most. While min RH is forecast to remain just above critical thresholds and winds remain below 15 mph through the work-week, hot temperatures and drought conditions will make for very sensitive fire weather conditions. A stronger boundary will push into the area late Saturday into Sunday, with increasing rain and storm chances including a decent chance of wetting rains areawide. Above normal temperatures (upper 80s to lower 90s) are expected Thursday thru Saturday. Potentially some mid 90s on Saturday. Also Saturday, breezy/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the front will increase control concerns, as will any lightning strikes from convection.

CLIMATE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site Apr 29 Apr 30 May 1 May 2 DAB 94 (1968) 92 (1953) 94 (2002) 95 (1953) LEE 94 (2017) 95 (1991) 94 (2017) 95 (1990) SFB 93 (2017) 93 (1971) 95 (2017) 94 (2010) MCO 96 (1906) 95 (1971) 96 (1917) 97 (1906) MLB 91 (1986) 93 (1964) 94 (2002) 95 (2002) VRB 94 (1986) 91 (1975) 96 (1971) 94 (2002) FPR 92 (1923) 97 (1971) 93 (2002) 95 (2002)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 65 89 66 87 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 66 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 69 87 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 66 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 66 92 68 89 / 0 0 0 20 SFB 65 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 20 ORL 66 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 20 FPR 65 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.