textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Heat Advisory issued for all of east central Florida through 8pm today for heat index values up to 108F-110F degrees; Remember to practice heat safety!

- Hot and humid conditions will continue for at least the next several days. Maximum heat index values will reach near Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through at least Friday.

- Near to below normal rain chances this week. Drier air aloft due to a Saharan Dust Layer will support strong gusty winds in any lightning storms each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A few showers are beginning to develop on KMLB radar as of around 2 PM. Otherwise, the cumulus field seen on GOES-East VIS imagery looks limited in vertical growth. This makes sense, given subsidence aloft due to a mid-level ridge over the Florida peninsula. However, additional development (PoPs to 20-40%) will be possible into the early evening hours. CAMs suggest the sea breeze collision as the focal point for scattered showers and storms through around 7 PM, before drier conditions develop for the overnight hours. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon, especially along the collision, with the 15Z XMR sounding finding 900 J/kg of DCAPE. Wind gusts to near 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours will be the main threats. Hot conditions, with a Heat Advisory in effect for the entire CWA through 8 PM will yield to overnight lows that remain in the mid to upper 70s tonight.

Wednesday-Friday...Similar conditions persist through late week, as high pressure through the column meanders in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf. While subsidence aloft continues to be a limiting factor to convection, humid conditions linger, with PWATs 1.8-2+" providing sufficient moisture for development. Thus, PoPs remain near to below normal (especially Wednesday), with chances 20-50%. Interior locations will likely remain dry Wednesday, though convection overall looks to be widely scattered at best to end the work week. Gusty winds to around 50 mph will continue to be a threat in any stronger storms due to drier air aloft. Light offshore winds overnight remain less than 10 mph through the day, but back S/SE near the coast as the sea breeze develops.

Humid conditions, limited showers and storms, and a weak east coast sea breeze will maintain hot conditions through Friday. Highs slightly above normal in the lower to mid-90s will help to support heat indices 102-107+ degrees each afternoon. Will continue to monitor the need for additional Heat Advisories for at least portions of the area through Friday. Regardless, be sure to practice heat safety for the remainder of the week.

Saturday-Tuesday...The Atlantic ridge strengthens into the weekend, with the ridge axis stretching westward towards the Florida peninsula through the period. Aloft, ridging consolidates over the northwestern Gulf coast. Despite ridging weakening slightly over the local area, an enhanced pocket of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to move into the peninsula. Therefore, PoPs look to remain below normal into early next week. Strong wind gusts will continue to be a threat due to dry air aloft. Also, hot conditions will likely continue, with highs remaining in the 90s and humid August dewpoints.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Overall favorable boating conditions are forecast through this weekend, as high pressure dominates the local pattern. Light offshore flow backs S/SE near the coast each day with the development of the sea breeze, but remains around 10 kts or less. Below normal coverage of showers and storms is forecast, though any storms will be capable of strong wind gusts to near 45 kts, in addition to lightning strikes. Seas 1-3 ft.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 135 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions outside of confection through the TAF period. Light and variable winds tonight will become west to northwest and increase to 5-10 KT by mid-morning. The east coast sea breeze will form in the afternoon, backing the winds onshore (E-SE) along the coast. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to form along the east coast sea breeze, with highest coverage of storms expected to be along the coast this afternoon and evening. Have maintained VCSH across the interior sites starting at 17Z and along the coast starting 16/17Z from VRB southward, and starting at 18/19Z from MLB northward. Have VCTS starting along the coast 19/20Z. Have added TEMPOs for MVFR conditions in TSRA starting at 20/21Z along the coast. Have not included any TEMPOs/PROB30s for the interior sites. Any lingering activity will diminish after 03Z Thursday. Winds will become light by 01Z across the interior, and by 03Z along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 94 77 94 77 / 30 20 40 20 MCO 96 77 97 77 / 20 20 40 20 MLB 94 77 93 77 / 20 20 30 20 VRB 94 75 94 76 / 30 20 30 10 LEE 96 77 96 78 / 20 20 40 20 SFB 96 77 96 78 / 20 20 40 20 ORL 96 77 96 78 / 20 20 40 20 FPR 94 75 94 76 / 40 20 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647.

AM...None.