textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

- Scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening, mainly from Vero Beach northward with diurnal shower and storm chances increasing each day through mid-week.

- Some storms and may be strong to severe today and Monday. Primary storm hazards are frequent lightning, strong to damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. A tornado can not be ruled out.

- Highs remain above normal through Monday with peak heat indices forecast to reach the mid 90s to around 105F. Temperatures become more seasonable behind the front on Tuesday before slowly increasing once again into mid/late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure over the western Atlantic will slowly shift southward through the day, with the axis remaining across south Florida. Several rounds of shortwave energy will traverse across north-central Florida. Locally, southwest winds around 10 mph will veer onshore and increase to 10-15 mph in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Ample moisture will remain present across the local area (PW values 1.8-2.0"), which will support a medium to high (30-70 percent) chance of rain. The highest rain and storm chances will be from Vero Beach northward.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put portions of east central Florida into a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on Sunday, mainly from northern Indian River/Okeechobee counties northward. Because of this, some storms may be strong to marginally severe. The storm environment supports this with forecast soundings showing ample instability (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg), sufficient shear (SFC-6km of 30- 40 KT), and plenty of downdraft potential (DCAPE of 900-1100 J/kg). Stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, with isolated severe storms producing 60+mph wind gusts, small hail ( with a 5-14% chance of hail 1.0"), and locally heavy down pours. A tornado can not be ruled out where storm and sea breeze boundaries collide.

Hot and humid conditions will continue today, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the north, and low to mid 90s across the south. These temperatures coupled with humidity will produce peak heat indices of 98-103 degrees. Overnight lows will be warm, providing little relief, with lows in the 70s. These conditions will produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk across much of the area. Fire sensitive conditions will continue today as min RH values drop to around 45 percent across the southern interior.

Monday... A weak front will approach the area on Monday, pushing through east central Florida Monday night. Locally, westerly winds around 10 mph will veer onshore in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze, which will be pinned closer to the coast than the past couple days. Winds will then veer northwest on Monday night ahead of the front. Moisture remain high across the local area, with PW values of 1.9-2.0", which will continue to support a medium to high (50-80 percent) chance of rain. Highest rain and storm chances will generally be Orlando eastward.

Some storms may be strong to marginally severe once again. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put all of east central Florida into a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Forecast soundings support this by showing ample instability (MUCAPE 1800-2400 J/kg), sufficient shear (SFC-6km of 20-30 KT), and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE of 500-800 J/kg). Stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, with a 5-14% chance of wind gusts of 60+mph, hail, with a 5-14% chance of hail 1.0", and locally heavy down pours. A tornado can not be ruled out.

Hot and humid once again, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the north, and low to mid 90s across the south, with peak heat indices of 98-105. Not much relief overnight, with lows in the 70s. These hot and humid conditions will produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk.

Tuesday-Saturday... A series of upper level troughs across the Great Lakes region will shift eastward and out into the Atlantic through late week. The aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast to push into South Florida by early Tuesday morning, becoming quasi- stationary across south Florida. Surface high pressure will then build over the local area from the Deep South behind the front. Locally, winds will veer onshore behind the front continuing into late week. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to 10-15 mph. Lingering moisture and instability will be slow to dissipate, resulting in increasing rain chances through mid-week, with shortwave energy aloft aiding convection. There is a medium to high (30-60 percent) chance of rain, especially in the afternoon. The highest potential for showers and storms on Tuesday will be from Cape Canaveral to Lake Okeechobee eastward. Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue Wednesday and Thursday, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Friday, with isolated showers (20 percent) around Lake Okeechobee on Saturday. Temperatures return closer to seasonal values on Tuesday (in the 80s) behind the front, but then steadily increase into the low 90s by mid-late week.

MARINE

Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Today-Thursday... Increased moisture will remain in place, resulting in an increased shower and lightning storm threat today through Tuesday, aided by boundary collisions across the eastern peninsula each day/evening, with activity being pushed back towards the coast. A few storms may be strong to marginally severe. Primary storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes and strong to damaging wind gusts.

Another weak front will then approach on Monday, passing through the local waters on Monday night and shifting into South Florida on Tuesday, becoming quasi-stationary through mid-week. S/SE winds at 10-15 KT today will veer offshore in the evening/overnight (and may increase briefly late each day/evening to 15-20 KT promoting temporary poor boating). SW winds ahead of the boundary at 10-15 KT will become N/NW post-frontal on Monday overnight/early Tuesday, then shift NE/E during the day Tuesday increasing to 15-20 KT. Seas 2-4ft will increase to 3-5ft on Tuesday and up to 7ft in the offshore waters by Tuesday night before subsiding to 4-6ft on Wednesday night, and 3-5ft on Thursday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR anticipated thru at least 17z before sct TSRA develops in the aft/eve hours. Most sites (except LEE) carry VCTS after 19z with the focus for development along the east and west coast breezes, which models suggest will collide just east of MCO. A few strong TSRA with 35+ kt gusts are possible, along with CIG/VIS reductions. TEMPOs are likely in future updates as confidence increases in select terminal impacts (esp. coastal sites).

Light/variable winds turn SW around 7-12 kt after 15z, veering onshore as the ECSB forms after 16-18z, then becoming light/variable again after 02-03z Mon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

While Min RH values will recover slightly today, fire sensitive conditions remain as min RH values drop to around 45 percent this afternoon. South to southwest winds will be around 10 mph, with the east coast sea breeze backing the winds onshore (E-SE) and increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon, mainly east of Orlando. Isolated to scattered (numerous at times) showers and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Lightning strikes could cause new fires. Temperatures will be hot and humid this weekend with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices of 95-103 degrees.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 73 88 71 / 60 20 70 60 MCO 91 75 89 73 / 60 20 70 50 MLB 90 78 88 75 / 60 30 70 60 VRB 91 77 91 74 / 50 40 70 60 LEE 90 74 90 72 / 40 10 60 40 SFB 91 73 90 71 / 60 10 70 60 ORL 91 75 89 73 / 60 20 70 60 FPR 91 77 91 74 / 40 40 60 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.