textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Scattered lightning storms are expected this afternoon and evening with 40-60% chance of rain. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall, which may cause localized minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

- Storms will begin to focus more over the interior from this weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing a diffuse Atlantic sea breeze more quickly inland.

- Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 100 to 106 today and Saturday. Heat indices may approach 108 next week. When planning to be outdoors, stay well hydrated and consider taking frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Today-Tonight... Florida will remain situated between two upper level high pressure systems, one in the Atlantic and one over TX/SW US, as an upper level trough shifts eastward towards the eastern US through the day. Shortwave energy will continue to traverse the base of this trough over the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula. At the surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will remain nearly stationary across south central Florida. Locally, offshore (S-SW) flow will persist with speeds 5-10 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon, turning the winds onshore (E-SE) as the sea breeze pushes inland. Moisture will remain near to slightly above normal, with PW values of 1.9-2.2". This will support a medium to high (30-60 percent) chance of showers and storms through the period. CAM guidance shows scattered showers and lightning storms forming early to mid afternoon near the coast with the formation of the sea breeze. Coverage is then expected to increase and focus across the interior late afternoon and early evening. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior with the sea breeze collision. As of 130 PM, scattered showers and storms have formed along the sea breeze across the Treasure coast as well as additional storms moving across Lake county for the west coast of Florida.

The environment supports storms today, with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1700-2300 J/kg), ample buoyancy (lifted index of -4 to -6), and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-900 J/kg). Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall of 1-3", which may lead to minor localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. Any lingering activity will diminish shortly after sundown, with activity across the Atlantic waters continuing through the overnight hours. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices of 100-165F. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Thursday... Upper level high pressure over the Atlantic and the SW US will merge over the weekend and remain over the southern US/Gulf/Atlantic into early next week. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will continue to shift northward towards the Carolinas into early next week. A frontal boundary will slide southward into the Deep South/Northern Florida this weekend before stalling, eventually becoming diffuse by early next week. Locally, winds will shift onshore (easterly) this weekend and remain through at least mid next week as the surface high pressure moves northward of Florida. Moisture across the local area will remain near to above normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.1". Daily afternoon showers and lightning storms are forecast to continue, with scattered storms forming each day along the advancing east coast sea breeze, with additional showers and storms forming across the interior. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior, where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur each evening, generally around Orlando westward. Storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot and humid with with peak heat indices of 100-106, with up to 108 possible in spots next week. Overnight lows will continue to be warm and muggy.

MARINE

Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Today-Tuesdasy... Generally favorable boating conditions expected. Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, reaching the local waters today and moving north of the area by the weekend and remaining into early next week. Light south to southwest flow will persist through Friday, with winds becoming onshore (east to southeast) and increasing to around 12 KT each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Winds will then shift onshore into the weekend as the high pressure moves north of the area. Seas 1-2ft before increasing to 2-3ft this weekend and into. early next week. A few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong wind gusts remain possible through today. Scattered onshore showers and storms will then be possible this weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

SHRA/TSRA ongoing already early this afternoon, with convection developing along the sea breeze near the Treasure Coast and an earlier outflow boundary west of I-4. Expect showers and storms to increase through around 20Z, as these boundaries collide, generally along the St Johns River. VCTS may linger through around 2Z from MLB northward along the coast, before drier conditions prevail, as storm propagation becomes erratic due to slow storm motions. Gusty winds to 35-40 kts will be possible with any storms. Otherwise winds around 10 kts or less.

Light SE flow prevails overnight, increasing after around 15Z Saturday. Additional summertime showers and storms are expected Saturday afternoon, generally after 18-20Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 90 77 89 / 30 30 50 60 MCO 76 94 77 92 / 40 50 30 70 MLB 78 90 78 90 / 20 40 60 70 VRB 76 90 77 90 / 30 50 60 70 LEE 76 93 76 91 / 30 60 20 70 SFB 75 93 76 91 / 40 50 30 70 ORL 76 93 77 92 / 40 50 30 70 FPR 76 90 77 90 / 20 50 60 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.