textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- An active weather pattern is forecast into early next week, with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms anticipated through at least Monday.

- Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, gusty to locally damaging wind gusts, and heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding will also be possible in some locations.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through next week, with peak heat indices of 100-107F areawide. Practice heat safety if spending extended periods of time outdoors!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level low pressure system will remain in place through the day, which will support the development of a surface low across the eastern Gulf and near northwest Florida. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has put a 10 percent chance of tropical development across the northeastern Gulf and northern Florida over the next 48 hours with this activity. Regardless if this system becomes tropical over the next several days, the development of the low will lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient over the local area, with southerly winds picking up to 10- 15 mph areawide. A weak east coast sea breeze may try to form in the afternoon, turning the winds onshore behind the sea breeze. But if it does form, it will stay somewhat close to the coast. Fairly deep moisture will continue across the area today due to the southerly winds which will support convection. Overall rain chances have come down slightly from the previous shifts due to the trend with the low pressure forecast shifting slightly westward. Because of that, there is a low to medium (20-50 percent) chance of showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Highest coverage of storms will be around Lake Okeechobee and across the interior near the Greater Orlando area and is forecast to occur after 2 PM.

Some storms may be strong. The environment supports this with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg), adequate shear (SFC-8km shear is 22 KT), conditionally unstable low-level lapse rates, 500mb temperatures around -7 C, and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-1000 J/kg). Main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 55mph, and locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches. Some minor, localized flooding will also be possible in some locations in training rain bands. Any lingering activity is forecast to gradually diminish into the late evening and overnight hours across east central Florida, with mostly dry conditions anticipated after midnight. However, there will remain isolated to scattered showers and storms across the Atlantic waters through the overnight hours.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast today with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-106 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. There is a moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

Sunday-Monday... The aforementioned upper level low and surface low pressure across the eastern Gulf and near northwest Florida will slowly move northward towards the Florida Big Bend on Sunday and towards the panhandle of Florida into Monday. NHC has maintained that the low pressure system has a 10 percent chance over the next 48 hours and 30 percent chance over the next 7 days of tropical development. The pressure gradient will remain tight across the local area due to this low pressure system, with southerly winds 10- 15 mph areawide. The rain chances continue to slightly decrease over the local area from previous forecast packages as the low pressure system trends more westward. There is a medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain and storms on Sunday and a medium (30-70 percent) chance on Monday. Highest coverage will be along and north of the I- 4 corridor each afternoon. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues to highlight portions of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall on Monday due to the saturated soils and the ongoing active pattern. Any lingering shower and storm activity is forecast to dissipate or move out of the area each evening, with mostly dry conditions forecast each night. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue with afternoon high temperatures in the low mid 90s and peak heat indices of 100- 107 degrees. Overnight lows will continue to be in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Friday.... The upper level low pressure system near the southeast US will gradually diminish into the middle of next week, causing the surface low to weaken and become diffuse. Surface high pressure across the western Atlantic will shift its axis northward from South Florida to central Florida by late week. Locally, winds will generally be southerly around 10 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, turning the winds onshore (southeasterly) behind the sea breeze. There remains some model disagreements with how rain chances next week will play out as the low pressure diminishes. The ECMWF shows drier air moving in across east central Florida, resulting in lower rain chances. While the GFS is a wetter solution with moisture lingering across the area, resulting in higher rain chances. Have maintained the NBM solution, with a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers and lightning storms each afternoon. Highest coverage of storms continue to be across the north. Warming trend is forecast into mid to late week, with greater coverage of mid 90s for highs forecast Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s each night.

MARINE

Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Today-Wednesday... An area of low pressure is forecast to develop across the eastern Gulf today, with the low pressure forecast to move northward towards the Florida panhandle and Big Bend area into early next week. The formation of the low pressure will result in the pressure gradient tightening across the local area, increasing the southerly winds to 10-15 knots across most of the waters. Wind speeds will increase to 15 to 20 knots across the local waters this afternoon and into this evening. Because of this, small craft will need to exercise caution in the offshore waters for those times. The seas will respond to the increase in winds, increasing to 2 to 4 feet today. The low will slowly move northward towards the Florida Big Bend before weakening next week. Southerly winds will persist through at least the middle of next week, with speeds generally 10-15 knots. Seas will remain between 2 to 4 feet through early next week, before slowly subsiding to 2-3 feet on Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible, primarily during the late evening and overnight hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Light and variable winds persist through early morning, with brief periods of of lowered CIGs near LEE. Otherwise, anticipate VFR conditions persisting through this morning and into the early afternoon hours. Increasing coverage of showers and storms is forecast after 18Z as southerly winds 10-15 knots lead to increasing moisture. Kept PROB30s between 18-21Z from MLB southward along the coast and 20-24Z at the interior terminals for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Conditions dry out after 00Z, with SSE winds around 5 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 76 91 76 / 20 10 50 10 MCO 93 76 93 77 / 40 20 50 10 MLB 91 77 91 77 / 30 10 30 10 VRB 92 76 92 76 / 40 10 40 10 LEE 92 77 91 77 / 30 20 60 20 SFB 94 76 93 77 / 40 20 50 10 ORL 93 77 93 77 / 40 20 50 10 FPR 91 75 92 75 / 40 10 40 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.