textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for northern east central Florida today and tomorrow with heat indices up to 110 degrees.

- The potential exists for strong storms today and tomorrow, as well as strong to severe storms on Thursday for areas of east central Florida

- Increasing coverage of showers and storms late week and into the weekend; Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Thursday through Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery showers east moving scattered showers and lightning storms over east central Florida to the south of the Orlando Metro. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, in addition to heat index values up to 100-109F degrees. Analysis charts show a mid/upper level trough over the southwest Atlantic and northern Florida with areas of PVA embedded within the base of the trough. Additionally, the Atlantic ridge is positioned well to the east-southeast of east central Florida.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7PM for Lake, Volusia, Orange, Seminole, and northern Brevard county this evening. Isolated to scattered generally east moving showers (20-60% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage into the late afternoon and evening hours. The greatest chance for showers and lightning storms are along the Orlando Metro and to the south. WSW winds at 5-10mph are forecast to back onshore with the east coast sea breeze mainly north of the Treasure Coast to the east of the Orlando Metro into this evening. WSW winds at 5-10mph are forecast to back onshore with the east coast sea breeze mainly north of the Treasure Coast to the east of the Orlando Metro into this evening. The potential exists for isolated strong storms today capable of producing wind gusts up to 40-50mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 30-60mins). Rain chances are expected to diminish towards sunset. Above normal (1-4+ degrees) lows in the mid to upper 70s are forecast.

Wednesday-Thursday... Drier air is expected tomorrow with an increase in WSW flow and no east coast sea breeze. WSW winds are expected to increase into the afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop in the afternoon and evening with the greatest chance for showers and storms again along and to the south of the Orlando Metro. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of producing wind gusts up to 40-50mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 30-60mins). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast on Wednesday. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM to 8PM for heat index up to 110F degrees for Lake, Volusia, Orange, Seminole, and northern Brevard county Wednesday. Moisture will increase on Thursday with PWATs up to 2.0-2.5" as a stationary boundary sags south across the southern US. Remember to practice heat safety which includes shifting work away from the hours of 10AM-4PM, wear light clothing, drink plenty of fluids, and take frequent breaks from the heat.

Guidance is not in good agreement on the timing of showers and storms on Thursday. The CAMs aren't showing much except for the HRRR, however, the global models are in decent agreement on a line of showers and storms tracking southeast across east central Florida early Thursday morning. however, it appears there will be two potential time periods for strong to severe storms to develop on Thursday. The first will be early Thursday morning after 12AM and generally before 8AM with additional development into the afternoon and evening hours. Instability is expected to be high with MLCAPE up to 1,500-3,800 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 15-40kts, and a LLJ up to 25-30kts, especially Thursday afternoon and evening. The SPC has outlooked northern Lake and Volusia counties with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms early Thursday morning. The main hazards are wind gusts up to 60mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3" in 30-60mins with a 1 in 10 chance of totals in excess of 3" up to 3-6"). A Marginal Risk (5-14% risk) for Excessive Rainfall exists for much of east central Floria on Thursday with the potential for flooding of roadways and low-lying areas. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected with the increase in rain chances and cloud cover. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and above normal lows (1-4F+ degrees) in the mid to upper 70s are forecast.

Friday-Monday... A relatively active weather pattern is expected with a stationary boundary over the southern US with the NBM probability of precipitation (PoPs) remaining high through the weekend. However, the trend for the most part has been for the NBM to have too high of PoPs in the extended forecast and MOS data suggests that is likely the case this weekend with offshore flow and no sea breeze. Scattered to numerous showers (60%-90% chance) and lightning storms are forecast on Friday with rain chances gradually diminishing through the weekend and into next week. Global models suggests the potential for strong to severe storms Friday and Saturday with areas of PVA pivoting across east central Florida coupled with high instability and a LLJ up to 25kts. Near to slightly below normal high temperatures are forecast with near to above normal low temperatures.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Currently-Tonight... Boating conditions are expected to become hazardous for the offshore waters (20-60nm). Isolated to scattered offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast through this evening with isolated storms capable of wind gusts to 34kts or greater. West-southwest winds are expected to increase at 15-20kts offshore and 10-15kts tonight into Wednesday morning. Seas to 2-3ft are expected. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution offshore.

Wednesday-Saturday (modified previous discussion)... Winds to around 15-20kts are forecast offshore Wednesday before reaching and then returns to near 15 kts Thursday. Seas build to 2-4 ft with up to 5 ft north of Sebastian Inlet Wednesday night. Lower than normal coverage of showers and storms will become above normal by Thursday. The potential exists for strong storms on Wednesday with the potential for strong to severe storms on Thursday-Saturday. Boating conditions improve into Friday and over the weekend as SW flow diminishes to 10-15 kts. Seas are expected to return to 1-3 ft. However, high coverage of showers and thunderstorms persists through the weekend. Boaters should remain alert for offshore- moving storms, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Any lingering showers and storms will diminish past sunset, leaving mostly dry conditions overnight. Southwest winds will become light this evening and through tonight before increasing to around 10 KT by mid morning with gusts up to 20 KT in the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will once again be possible in the afternoon. Have included VCTS starting at 18Z across the inland terminals, and 19Z for the coastal terminals. Timing and coverage is too uncertain at this time to include any PROB30 or TEMPO groups. However, the latest CAM guidance shows the greatest coverage looks to be south of MCO once again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 95 77 90 / 10 20 50 70 MCO 77 94 78 91 / 10 40 50 70 MLB 77 93 77 90 / 10 30 30 70 VRB 74 93 75 91 / 20 30 20 60 LEE 78 93 78 90 / 10 30 60 70 SFB 78 94 79 91 / 10 30 50 70 ORL 78 93 78 90 / 10 40 50 70 FPR 74 92 75 91 / 20 40 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ041- 044>046-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.