textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Hot and humid conditions continue this week with Moderate to Major Heat Risk for all of East Central Florida through Friday. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day.

- Increasing storm coverage is expected Thursday afternoon through late week as deeper moisture moves across central Florida from the north. Storms will move from inland areas toward the Atlantic coast each afternoon, with strong storms possible.

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all central Florida Atlantic beaches into late week. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Current-Tonight...Mornings central FL soundings confirm the airmass has dried some since yesterday with PWATs ~1.7 inches with WSW at 15- 20 knots from 1-10 kft on the 915 MHZ Cape Wind profilers. With the drier airmass and SW winds we're watching the heat build early this afternoon with mid 90s a good bet for much of east central FL, except areas along the east coast behind the sea breeze pass where lower 90s will be common. Orlando Intl hit 98 yesterday, and they could reach that value this afternoon if storms miss the airport (the record is 100 today in 1998 for Orlando - a prolifically hot summer). High resolution models do also indicate mid afternoon showers/storms will converge across Volusia and Brevard counties later this afternoon and during the early evening with some activity also affecting the Treasure Coast. The strengthened environmental low level flow may enhance connective outflow to 50 mph with storms. Boaters should be on the look out to the WSW for fast approaching storms by late afternoon and evening. Storm coverage should diminish after 11pm with dry conditions overnight.

Thursday...A favorable pattern is setting up for afternoon storms across east central FL with increasing deep moisture as PWATs increase to 1.8-1.9 inches by late morning and SSW low level flow. Temps aloft will cool slightly with disturbances across the northern peninsula helping to enhance convection across northern sections by late afternoon. Storm coverage should be highest (50-60%) from I-4 eastward to the Volusia and Brevard Atlantic coast into early evening. A few locally strong storms are expected with the risk of strong winds to 50-55 mph, frequent lighting and localized heavy rainfall amounts up to 2-3 inches. With highs in the mid 90s and afternoon heat indices from 107-107 degrees, the heat will continue to pose a hazard to those outdoors. Resident and visitors should remember to stay hydrated, wear light colored clothing, shift outdoor work away from 10am to 4pm, and take frequent breaks from the heat.

Friday-Sunday...Unsettled weather with high shower and storm chances are forecast to start the weekend as a mid level trough aloft approaches north FL Friday and settles over central FL Saturday. Upper level disturbances combined with high moisture levels will lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms (50-70%) Friday afternoon and numerous showers and storms (70%-80%) on Saturday. The strongest storms look favored on Friday with higher instability and enhancement from disturbances aloft. The latest excessive rainfall outlook also highlights Friday afternoon for a marginal risk for excessive rainfall with storms. It appears we'll likely see an earlier start to the showers and storms than recent days throughout the weekend and also increased cloud cover by Saturday afternoon into Sunday as a front approaches the area from the north. Highs in the mid 90s Friday may drop a few degrees into the lower 90s over the weekend with the approaching front and clouds.

Mon-Wed...Drier conditions are forecast into early next week as a ridge aloft rebuilds across central and south Florida. Scattered showers (30-50%) and lightning storms are forecast into each afternoon as a weak east coast sea breeze moves inland and converges with weak west-southwest flow. Above normal high temperatures are expected to continue into next week with a Major HeatRisk for much of the area.

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Tonight...Scattered storms will move from the mainland to the near shore waters late this afternoon and evening mainly north of Sebastian Inlet posing a hazard to small craft with gusty winds up to 35-40 knots in a few storms. For the overnight...convection will diminish with SSW winds to around 15 knots offshore.

Thursday...Southerly flow to 15 knots is expected with afternoon storms moving toward the nearshore waters by late afternoon, again mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. A few strong storms are possible with the highest coverage between 5pm and 9pm Thu evening. Seas 2-3 ft.

Friday-Monday...A frontal boundary will approach the local Atlantic waters by Saturday night and Sunday morning and dissipate into early next week. Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast for Fri and Sat afternoon and evening with storm coverage decreasing by Monday. The potential for a few strong storms exists, especially Fri and Sat ahead of the frontal boundary.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Mostly dry across east central Florida early this afternoon with coverage of scattered storms forecast to gradually build. VCTS included across the north from MLB/ISM northward after 19Z/20Z, but an earlier start is expected at LEE. VCSH included along the Treasure Coast. South-southwest winds prevail around 8-12 kts this afternoon with locally higher gusts at times. A sea breeze is beginning to develop along portions of the coast, and will locally shift winds south-southeast at coastal TAF sites. Convection is forecast to diminish after sunset across the interior, while showers and storms may linger a few hours into the evening along the coast. South-southwest winds subside around 5 kts tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 94 75 92 / 20 60 40 50 MCO 77 96 76 93 / 20 50 30 50 MLB 77 93 77 93 / 40 40 40 70 VRB 77 94 76 94 / 30 30 30 70 LEE 78 95 76 93 / 10 40 20 30 SFB 77 96 76 94 / 30 60 40 50 ORL 78 95 77 93 / 30 60 30 50 FPR 76 93 77 93 / 20 30 30 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.