textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Frequently gusty northeast winds and drier air into Tuesday will lead to very sensitive to critical fire weather conditions.

- Isolated to scattered showers generally south of Brevard this afternoon will diminish into the evening.

- Beach and boating conditions remain poor to hazardous through at least the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Rest of Today-Tuesday...A cold front continues to move southward through south Florida this afternoon. Isolated showers and a storm or two ongoing generally south of Melbourne are forecast to diminish from north to south into this evening, as drier air filter into the area behind the front. Regardless, limited instability has so far moderated vertical development of convection this afternoon. Tonight into Tuesday, PoPs remain below 15%.

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure settling into the Southeast US and the front have produced breezy to windy northeasterly winds today. Sustained winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 25- 30 mph are occurring across the area. Along the coast, gusts to near 35 mph have been observed. While winds will slacken slightly after sunset, they are forecast to remain elevated through the overnight hours, particularly along the coast. Breezy easterly winds are expected Tuesday, with gusts near 25 mph again. Onshore flow will help to keep temperatures near normal, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Breezy conditions and dry air will lead to very sensitive to critical fire weather conditions Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for interior locations.

Wednesday-Monday...Surface ridging develops over and offshore from the Southeast US mid to late week. A stable maritime airmass prevails, with onshore flow through the end of the work week. A slackening pressure gradient will put an end to particularly breezy conditions, with more typical afternoon sea breezes around 10-15 mph. Mostly dry, though will need to monitor for a few low topped showers embedded within pockets of moisture (PWATs near 1-1.1") Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, chances remain low into early next week, with just 20% PoPs this weekend for sea breeze collision-driven convection. Weakening onshore flow will lead to a rise in temperatures by a few degrees each day. Near normal highs in the lower to mid-80s Wednesday reach the mid to upper 80s once again by the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Hazardous boating conditions through tonight, with 20-25 kt northeasterly winds behind a cold front. Poor to hazardous conditions linger into Tuesday, as the pressure gradient remains tight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Onshore winds diminish Wednesday into late week, as high pressure develops over the area. Seas 7-10 ft this afternoon and into tonight will slowly subside, returning to 2-4 ft by Thursday. A few showers and storms along the Treasure Coast this afternoon are forecast to diminish into this evening. Drier conditions then prevail through the work week, but will need to watch for a few onshore-moving showers Wednesday/Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 711 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Drier air settles southward tonight, lessening cloud cover and eventually ending any lingering showers on the Treasure Coast. VFR conds expected into Tuesday at all terminals, including MCO. NE winds persist, with 15-25 KT gusts continuing at the coastal terminals tonight. On Tuesday, NE sustained 15-20 KT with gusts 22-28 KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Very sensitive fire weather conditions through early this week behind a cold front. Breezy to windy northeasterly winds this afternoon, with wind gusts 25-30 mph and up to 35 mph along the coast. Isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two south of Melbourne will diminish towards sunset. Min RH remains above critical levels today, but areas north and west of I-4 are forecast to dip to near 40-45%.

Winds remain elevated overnight and will continue to be breezy Tuesday as they veer easterly. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for interior counties late Tuesday morning through the afternoon due to wind speeds 15-20 mph and critical to near critical RH. Will need to monitor the coast, as conditions remain very sensitive there and winds will be highest. But, onshore flow is forecast to keep min RH above critical thresholds. Winds diminish to 10-15 mph Wednesday, while RH recovers to 40-50%. Regardless of Red Flag or near Red Flag conditions, very good to excellent dispersion may lead to control issues into mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 62 81 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 67 78 65 78 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 65 78 63 78 / 10 0 0 10 LEE 57 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 59 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 62 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 65 78 63 78 / 10 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.