textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

- A Marginal risk (Level 1/5) of severe storms exists this evening across northern parts of east central FL. While rain chances are high and locally heavy rain will occur in some spots, storm total rainfall amounts will not have a significant impact on our drought.

- Cooler Monday behind a cold front then warming back up through the week and quickly drying out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Current thru tonight...Strong sfc heating has generated deep mixing and pulled increasing winds up thru 850 mb down to the sfc in wind gusts with frequent gusts near 35 mph across the northern FA. But as cloud cover increases, the winds and esp the gustiness will begin to subside late this aftn.

A squall line currently over the NE Gulf outpaces the actual cold front which lags a bit farther to the west. The band of showers and storms is forecast to reach Lake and Volusia counties just after sunset (7-8 pm) and metro Orlando btwn 9-10 pm based on the latest HRRR. The current Tornado Watch just to our north expires at 8pm and it is possible another watch may be needed to the south and could encompass some of our northern counties later this evening. There has been little change to the MRGL risk for severe storms across EC FL today. Strong wind fields and upper forcing from a potent shortwave trough will produce a risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, primarily north of a line from Titusville to Lake Kissimmee during the evening hours. Although gradually veering low level flow is forecast, low level shear and helicity profiles will support a low risk for a tornado.

The line will weaken as it moves south of Melbourne/Lake Kissimmee, across Okeechobee and the Treasure coast later tonight. Gusty showers remain possible even in absence of stronger storms as wind fields will increase 40-45 knots at 925 mb. Localized rainfall totals may reach 1" across portions of Lake, Volusia, Seminole and Orange counties but much lesser amounts to the south.

Mon...Sounding profiles hold a layer of low level moisture below 850mb through the day, and cannot completely discount isolated sprinkles or even light showers. Winds will veer NW to N during the day, with breezy conditions along the coast. There will also be considerable stratus esp along the Volusia coast which should hold max temps in the upper 60s there. Elsewhere, max temps in the 70s will occur noticeably cooler than today.

Tue-Sun (modified)...A warming trend sets up through late week as surface high pressure moves into the western Atlantic and a trailing ridge axis settles south across the area, becoming stationary across south FL by late week. Max temps reach the mid 80s across all the interior by Thu and continue Fri-Sat with low to mid 80s coast. The next cold front is forecast to push through around Sunday which would bring temps down to more seasonable levels. But there are no mentionable rain chances Tue through Sat, further increasing drought and fire sensitivities.

MARINE

Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Small Craft Advisories in effect for south to southwest winds 20 knots nearshore and increasing to 25 knots offshore thru this evening. Nearshore waters should be able to drop back to a Caution overnight but winds/seas will keep the Advisory offshore thru Mon morning. Winds turn NW to N Monday behind the cold front with 15 knots, even 15-20 knots which may require a Caution. High pressure pushes east offshore the Carolina coast with a trailing ridge axis that settles southward across the waters mid week. So winds will decrease but an increasing swell will keep seas a little higher than expected.

A broken band of showers and embedded storms pushes southward across the waters this evening and overnight bringing high rain chances (70-90%). Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible pushing offshore, primarily north of the Cape. The cluster of showers and storms will weaken as it pushes south of the Cape, finally pushing south of Jupiter Inlet near or shortly after sunrise Monday. However, additional rain chances should linger across the local waters Monday before drying Tuesday and into mid week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 638 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Breezy/gusty conditions ahead of the approaching front and line of SHRA/TSRA have persisted at a few terminals, with SW-SSW winds still pushing close to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will diminish some, but not significantly before arrival of the squall line which is at the doorsteps of KLEE and KDAB. A few embedded +TS could impact the northern terminals (KISM-KTIX north) through 06Z. This includes KMCO through 05Z. Line is forecast to weaken as it pushes towards the southern terminals, and confidence in TEMPO convective impacts at KVRB-KSUA are decreasing, but stayed the course for now. Winds diminish to 5-10 kts behind the convective line, veering from SW tonight to NNE Monday evening. Winds along the coast could pick back up to 10-15 kts with higher gusts Monday afternoon. SCT-BKN MVFR CIGs overrun the northern terminals behind the convective line as the front pushes through.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Southerly surface and transport winds will produce sustained winds 15-25 mph, gusting 30-35 mph this afternoon. This will combine with very warm temperatures to produce high dispersion values and a very fire weather sensitive day. Min RH values between 35-40% are forecast. A few instantaneous red flag conditions may occur. Given the very dry conditions, any new or existing fires will be capable of spreading rapidly.

Much needed rain will move in this evening and into the overnight associated with a cold front. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be higher across northern sections (Orlando northward) between 0.25- 0.75" and there is a risk there for isolated strong to severe storms containing wind gusts up to 60 mph between 7pm and midnight. Lesser rain amounts between 0.10-0.25" are forecast from Melbourne southward.

Isolated showers may linger Monday with a wind shift out of the northwest to north and breezy along the coast. A warm and drying trend then sets up through the remainder of the week with no mentionable rainfall and temperatures climbing through the 80s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 58 69 55 74 / 90 0 10 10 MCO 62 73 58 77 / 90 0 10 10 MLB 59 73 57 75 / 90 10 20 10 VRB 60 76 58 76 / 80 10 20 10 LEE 59 72 54 77 / 90 0 0 10 SFB 60 73 55 77 / 90 0 10 10 ORL 62 73 57 77 / 90 0 10 10 FPR 60 77 56 77 / 70 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552- 555.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572-575.