textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through early-mid next week. The main storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. - Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s (few mid 90s today) will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches again today. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Current-Monday...Continued warm and humid early this morning with temps and dewpoints well into the 70s. Surface high pressure ridging will continue to slowly slip south/east away from ECFL with the approach of a surface boundary across the Deep South. This weak front will move into north FL by early Mon morning with perhaps a bit more southward advancement into north/central Fl by the end of the period. Light SW/W winds will transition onshore in the afternoon along the coast with ECSB formation (possibly delayed) and slow push inland each day (quicker across the Treasure Coast). A late day/early evening sea breeze collision both today/Mon will occur across the eastern peninsula. Storm steering will be light NWRLY today and light WRLY on Mon which will bring activity back toward the coast and across the intracoastal and near shore Atlc waters. Former troughing in the mid-levels moves away from the area today, but additional east-west oriented troughing will slide down the peninsula on Mon. Temps at 500 mb remain fairly warm at -5.5C to -6.5C. Ample moisture will surge back into the area late today and continue across the area for Mon. Still mainly diurnal PoPs 30-60% today (highest north Brevard-Orange County northward) and 70-80% for Mon with mid-level energy enhancing afternoon/evening convection. Primary storm impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds locally 35-50 mph, and torrential downpours capable of 2-4" in a relatively short period promoting minor/nuisance flooding in slow- moving storms or repeated rounds.

Max temps slightly above climo today in the L90s (few M90s possible) and U80s to L90s for Mon. Humid overnight with mins in the 70s. Peak heat indices continue 100-107F ahead of daily storms.

Tue-Sat...The east-west oriented trough in the mid-levels across central FL lingers across the area thru Wed, then gradually weakens and lifts northward as nearly zonal flow returns toward late week. At the surface, a weak pressure pattern will remain in place. The aforementioned weak frontal boundary hovers near north/central to central FL into mid-week before washing out. The NBM continues to key in on deep moisture surging in proximity of the boundary, thus favoring higher than normal PoPs Tue (70-80%), Wed-Thu (60-70%), with only a slight dip Fri-Sat (50-60%). Storm impacts continue to revolve around locally heavy rainfall. The ECSB will develop each afternoon, and may be able to penetrate further inland during much of this period. Storm motion remains fairly weak and variable (erratic), but expect some activity to periodically push back toward the coast, esp surrounding stronger boundary collisions. Generally near seasonal temps for highs (U80s-L90s) with lows in the 70s and conditions humid.

MARINE

Issued at 233 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thru Thursday...Fairly weak pressure gradient continues with daily sea breeze formation as winds transition to ESE/SE 10-12 kts along the coast. Inland progression of this feature will be limited thru Mon and possibly delayed a bit each afternoon. Diurnal offshore- moving showers/lightning storms into early/mid next week (affecting intracoastal/near shore waters) as storm motion remains mostly light WRLY. A few strong storms possible with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds in excess of 34 kts, and heavy downpours. Coverage of storms will be fairly high into early/mid next week, esp in the mid-late afternoon/early evening. Overnight activity mostly confined to the Gulf Stream, where a few strong storms will remain possible with frequent lightning/gusty winds. Seas locally higher invof storms. Seas continue mainly 1-2 ft thru Mon night, building to 2-4 ft again by late Tue and perhaps 5 ft well offshore (Volusia & Brevard coasts) Tue night/Wed. Boating conditions remain mostly favorable outside of storms into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Light and variable winds become westerly after 14Z areawide. Showers and storms are possible today, favored towards the coast. VCTS starting as early as 18Z, expanding westward through 20Z. Added in TEMPOs at DAB, TIX, and MLB from 19-22Z and PROB30s at VRB, FPR, and SUA from 21-24Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Less confidence in seeing higher coverage at the interior terminals at this time, but will keep an eye on trends and amend as needed. Showers and storms push offshore through the evening and overnight hours, with dry conditions areawide by 02Z. Light and variable winds return areawide. Some light showers early tomorrow morning may be possible across the interior terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 75 89 74 / 60 30 80 40 MCO 93 76 91 74 / 50 20 80 50 MLB 93 75 91 75 / 40 30 70 50 VRB 91 74 90 73 / 40 20 70 50 LEE 92 75 90 74 / 40 30 80 30 SFB 93 75 91 75 / 60 30 80 40 ORL 93 77 91 75 / 50 30 80 50 FPR 91 74 90 73 / 30 20 70 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.