textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 227 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Minimal cooling behind today's weak front, with temperatures generally staying near to above normal this afternoon and tonight.

- A warming trend commences for the work week, with many inland spots reaching the lower 80s by Tuesday or Wednesday. Wetting rain is unlikely for most places through at least Friday.

- Fog that could become dense and reduce visibility to less than a mile during the morning commutes will be possible most mornings.

UPDATE

Issued at 809 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Stratus has rebuilt across Volusia County and is expanding westward this evening. This stratus is forecast to continue to expand west and southward as it lowers overnight, especially across the interior. Hi-res guidance is being a little more consistent on showing greater coverage of fog and better potential for dense fog across the interior from the Orlando area westward. Have therefore added "areas of fog" wording to this region, with patchy fog elsewhere across east central Florida for overnight tonight into early Monday morning. Isolated showers will continue to develop over the waters into tonight with an inverted trough off the coast. A few showers may near and be able to push onshore, mainly along the southern Treasure Coast late tonight, so have added a slight chance for showers south of Fort Pierce. Otherwise, no additional changes made to the forecast. Lows will be in the 50s most locations, except low 60s along the southern Treasure Coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Today's front has departed south of the area. Much of the northern counties remain socked in under low stratus, and while a few breaks are opening up along coastal Volusia, most of this area will remain overcast until around sunset. Trended seasonably cool afternoon highs here down another degree or two with the afternoon forecast package, generally still in the U60s-L70s, but northern Lake and Volusia may not be able to break above the M60s. To the south, clear skies and later arrival of the front will bring afternoon highs down here to the M70s, cooler than previous days but still slightly above normal. Rain chances that have retreated to the offshore Atlantic waters this afternoon will creep back towards land tonight, and can't rule out a shower brushing the coast overnight. Overnight lows in the L50-M50s, up to the L60s along the southernmost coast, only around 5 degrees cooler than this morning/Saturday night at most, and still above normal. Fog that could become dense and reduce visibility to less than a mile is expected again late tonight into Monday morning, impacting the morning commute to start the work week.

Monday-Tuesday...Very broad and weak ridging weakened by shortwaves transiting the pattern, one of particular note sliding across the Great Lakes, gradually shifts across the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic pushes offshore into open ocean. A surface low developing in response to the aforementioned shortwave passing well to our north will suppress the high over the Atlantic somewhat, but the tail of the ridge will continue extending to Florida. As the axis of the surface ridge drops through and south of the area, winds shifting from easterly-ish to southerly-ish Monday (the pressure gradient will be so loose winds are effectively light and variable), then becoming westerly Tuesday, punctuated by onshore shifts in the afternoons from a weak sea breezes. Lingering moisture over the nearby Atlantic waters will support isolated to maybe scattered showers on convergence lines that develop in the weak flow, which could push onshore any part of the coast Monday, then confined to the Treasure Coast Tuesday. Otherwise dry conditions. Warmer than normal temperatures return, with afternoon highs getting back to (or remaining at, in the case of the southern counties) the M-U70s Monday, further increasing to the U70s-L80s Tuesday. Overnight lows mostly in the 50s, up to the L60s along the southernmost coast. There is potential for development of dense fog each morning.

Wednesday-Saturday...Generally quiet and warm through the rest of the work week, then watching for our next cold front next weekend. The upper level pattern over the CONUS gradually amplifies in response to a mid-upper level trough developing over the western US and slowly working eastward, deepening the ridge over the eastern seaboard until being pushed offshore by the approaching trough late week. At the surface, the low pressure system passing well to our north moves offshore the Northeast/Canadian Maritimes midweek, while the ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend to Florida. High pressure following the departing low quickly shifts offshore ahead of the next low pressure system developing over the Central US, reinforcing high pressure over the western Atlantic and Florida late in the work week. Dry conditions through at least Friday, with well above normal temperatures as afternoon highs in the U70s-L80s start to creep towards the M80s inland Friday, approaching a couple low hanging daily high temperature records. Overnight lows also well above normal in the M50s-L60s, up to the M60s along the southernmost coast.

Model agreement is pretty good through Thursday, then disagreement in evolution of the approaching trough and its associated surface projection(s) result in a 24-ish hour difference in arrival of a cold front next weekend, with the GFS and CMC bringing the front through Saturday, and the ECM and UKMET Sunday. Official forecast goes with a consensus blend at this point, which keeps Saturday warmer and holds off cooling until Sunday. Unfortunately this has the effect of averaging/smoothing rain chances to around 10%, when the real chances are closer to 20%, just a question of when. EPS/GEFS probabilities for greater than 0.10" through the weekend are decent at 30-60%, but chances for greater than 1" are effectively zero.

MARINE

Issued at 227 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through the work week. High pressure over the eastern US behind today's front, which has pushed south of the local Atlantic waters, will shift offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday, with the ridge axis of the high extending to Florida through much of the week as low pressure systems pass well north of the area. Northerly winds 10-15 kts behind the front this afternoon quickly veer easterly to southeasterly at 5-10 kts tonight and Monday, becoming variable at times Monday as the ridge axis slides through. Choppy 2-4 ft seas this afternoon build a bit in the Gulf Stream to 5 ft tonight into Monday. Convergence lines will be able to support lines of showers, and a lightning storm can't be ruled out but chances are very low (15% or less). Tuesday and Wednesday, winds settle to offshore (westerly) 5-15 kts after the ridge axis drops south of the local waters, punctuated by south to southwesterly flow from the afternoons to early overnights by an early January sea breeze. Another area of high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and into the western Atlantic mid to late week brings back onshore (easterly- southeasterly) flow. Seas 2-4 ft Tuesday morning settle to 1-3 ft mid to late week. Mostly dry conditions forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 647 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Lower cloud cover producing MVFR cigs across northern portions of east central FL is temporarily breaking up for some spots, but lingering and actually expanding westward from Volusia County. The models are having a challenging time with this and the cig/vis forecast remains rather uncertain as we head into tonight. Have leaned toward the pessimistic side and kept KDAB/KSFB/KLEE with MVFR cigs this evening, with stratus lowering and expanding southward overnight. Have cigs lowering to IFR/LIFR for interior sites near to after 06Z, with IFR/MVFR visibilities in developing patchy/areas of fog late tonight through early Monday morning. Can't completely rule out dense fog in spots, producing visibilities of a half mile or less. At the coast, have at least periods if not predominant MVFR cigs, with tempo IFR conditions possible. Any stratus and fog should slowly lift and break up into Monday morning, with conditions improving gradually to VFR into late morning/toward noon.

It will be mostly dry, but a few onshore moving showers may be possible along the Treasure Coast late tonight into early Monday morning. Rain chances remain low, however, so will not include VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Winds will mostly be light and variable overnight tonight and across much of the area Monday. However, a weak sea breeze may form along Brevard County and the Treasure Coast, switching winds to the E/NE around 7-8 knots in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 55 75 56 77 / 10 10 0 0 MCO 56 77 58 80 / 0 10 0 0 MLB 57 76 58 77 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 57 77 57 78 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 53 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 54 77 56 80 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 56 76 58 79 / 0 10 0 0 FPR 56 77 57 79 / 10 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.