textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Rough surf and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents continue at area beaches. Residents and visitors should use caution at the beach and avoid entering the water. - Strong northeast winds forecast to return this weekend; very windy with dangerous surf and boating conditions, a risk for more beach erosion and minor coastal flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Mostly sunny conditions across the Florida Peninsula as of early this afternoon. The atmosphere is dry with this mornings 12z sounding indicating 0.94 inches of PW. These PW values are down around the 10th percentile of climatology for mid-October. There is still a small chance for a few showers offshore and across far southeastern portions of the forecast area where the moisture is a little bit higher.

In the upper levels, there is a longwave trough that extends from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the western Caribbean. At the surface, high pressure over the northeastern U.S. is leading to northeasterly winds across the region. There are some fluctuations to the upper air and surface patterns but overall conditions remain relatively similar into early next week.

The northeasterly winds will be the main impact throughout the forecast period. Northeasterly winds are already elevated across the area. These winds really look to increase over the weekend as the surface high to the northeast drifts to the south. This will lead to an increase in the pressure gradient across the region and increasing winds. Wind Advisories may be necessary, at least for the coast. These windy conditions will continue into early next week.

These strong winds will also occur with higher than normal tides and produce additional hazard with beach erosion, rough surf, minor coastal flooding, and dangerous rip current.

Highs will generally be in the 70s and 80s throughout the forecast period with lows generally in the 60s. Dry conditions will feature throughout much of the forecast period except for over the weekend. PoPs increase to around 50-60% mainly along the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A small craft advisory remains in effect with gusty northeasterly winds continuing. Winds will increase over the weekend along with an increase in the chances for showers as well. Northeasterly winds will increase over the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens. These winds will approach Gale force. Wave heights increase to 12-15 ft by late Sat leading to dangerous marine conditions. These elevated seas continue into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 649 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out near the Treasure Coast. Expect breezy north- northeast winds at times at 6-12kts with gusts up to 15-18kts before weakening slightly into the overnight. Winds will increase generally after 17Z from the north-northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 77 64 78 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 61 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 68 80 67 80 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 67 82 66 83 / 10 0 0 10 LEE 58 77 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 60 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 61 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 67 82 65 82 / 10 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.