textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions, including life- threatening rip currents, continue through the weekend even as surf appears to improve.

- Patchy fog may develop north of I-4 early this morning. Isolated onshore moving showers remain possible again today, mainly south of Melbourne. Otherwise dry conditions.

- Warm and dry next week as high pressure builds over East Central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Today-Tonight...Beach goers should take heed, surf will appear more inviting than previous days, but numerous, strong, life- threatening rip currents will be present, and entering this dangerous surf is not advised. Boating conditions in the local Atlantic waters also remain poor to hazardous.

High pressure over the Southeast will shift eastward while being reinforced by another surface high from the northern US, building a deep surface high over the eastern seaboard. Locally, winds shift more east-southeasterly and even drier air (PWATs down to 0.60-0.80") advects to the Florida peninsula. Could see some patchy morning fog north of the I-4 corridor, but unless winds go calm dense fog is not favored. The pressure gradient loosens just a bit, but will still see breezy/gusty conditions in the afternoon as onshore flow is enhanced by the sea breeze, with gusts 20-25 mph. The marine layer over the Atlantic waters remains deep enough to support isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs 10-20%), but a sharp inversion at the top of the layer and very dry air above will inhibit deep convection, pretty much shutting the door on chances for lightning or heavy rainfall. Best chances for a light shower south of the Cape in the relatively higher moisture, but can't rule out a sprinkle to the north. Otherwise, dry conditions. A degree or two warmer than yesterday, but afternoon highs still in the U70s-L80s. Overnight lows in the U50s-U60s.

Sunday-Monday...Surface high pressure building over the eastern seaboard is pushed into the open Atlantic by a low pressure system swinging across the northern US and southern Canada, but the ridge axis stays anchored near North Florida thanks to a dome of high pressure building over the Gulf and Florida. Winds remain onshore (easterly), becoming breezy/gusty in the afternoon behind the sea breeze, though a bit less so on Monday than previous days. Moisture subtly decreases a bit more (PWATs 0.50-0.70"), and combined with increased subsidence from the ridge aloft even the marine layer won't be able to support more than an isolated shower on convergence lines over the Atlantic waters, resulting in mostly dry conditions (PoPs 10% or less). Subsidence and more sunshine keeps the gradual warming trend going, with afternoon highs in the U70s-L80s Sunday increasing to the U70s-M80s Monday. Overnight lows remain in the U50s-U60s. As overnight winds become lighter and the ridge builds overhead, conditions become more favorable for late night/early morning fog. A High risk of rip currents will continue through at least Sunday.

Tuesday-Friday...Pattern becomes stagnant through much of the coming week with ridging over the Gulf and Florida, and the axis of surface high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic extending towards the Florida peninsula. Dry conditions persist, and temperatures will continue to crawl upwards, with highs reaching the L-U80s Wednesday. Model solutions begin to diverge Thursday onward, as the ridge aloft is flattened by less of eastward movement of a trough over the western US (as models were depicting 24 hours ago), and more of a passing impulse of energy. Locally models remain in good agreement for Florida to remain under the influence of the surface high over the subtropical Atlantic, and weather systems associated with troughs/shortwaves to remain north of us, but how far south the axis of the high slides in response to the passing upper level energy is unsure. As a result there is some uncertainty how warm ECFL will get Thursday and Friday, and whether rain chances return late in the week if the axis drops south enough to drive some higher moisture from the tropics to Florida. Well above normal temperatures are expected regardless, and could touch the 90s towards the weekend if the forecast trends warmer. Rain chances remain out of the forecast for now.

MARINE

Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Today-Monday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist across most of the local Atlantic waters as seas very slowly subside from 5-8 ft early this morning to 4-7 ft early Sunday morning, where they remain into Monday before continuing to settle. High pressure building over the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic maintains onshore (northeast to east) winds 10-20 kts, highest south of the Cape. Have been able to pair back parts of the Small Craft Advisory, with the Volusia nearshore cancelled at 2 AM, the Brevard nearshore now dropping off at 10 AM, and the Volusia offshore now dropping off at 4 PM. However, small craft should continue to exercise caution for seas up to 6 ft. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the remaining Brevard offshore and Treasure Coast nearshore/offshore legs through at least 8 AM Monday morning for seas 7-8 ft in the Gulf Stream. Isolated showers possible, but mostly dry conditions.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Boating conditions in the local Atlantic waters finally improve as high pressure settles over the subtropical Atlantic, with the ridge axis extending back towards the Florida peninsula while slowly slipping south towards Central Florida. Easterly to southeasterly winds ease to 5-15 kts and seas settle to 3-5 ft. Isolated showers on converge lines can't be ruled out, but otherwise dry conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

High pressure north of the area will continue to generate a breezy east-northeast flow across the area today, with winds increasing to 12-15 knots, gusting to 20-22 knots after 14Z. VFR conditions are forecast to largely prevail today into tonight, but may still see some brief MVFR conditions, mainly at the coast near to south of KMLB with any isolated onshore moving showers. However rain chances remain low around 20%, so will continue to only mention VCSH in the TAFs. Winds diminish to 5-10 knots into tonight, with mostly dry conditions forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 78 62 78 63 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 80 62 81 63 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 77 66 78 67 / 20 10 0 0 VRB 78 64 78 65 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 82 60 83 61 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 80 60 82 62 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 81 61 82 63 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 78 63 79 64 / 20 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570.