textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Increasing moisture through early this week will allow rain chances to return to near and above normal values.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon & evening (2-5" totals within reach). In addition, a few strong to severe storms will be in play with potentially strong to damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph.

- Highs in the low to mid 90s will continue, with peak heat indices reaching 102-107F each afternoon, and potentially nearing Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Through Tonight...Limited cloud coverage this morning has allowed for sufficient daytime heating across east central Florida, with temperatures already in the low to mid 90s areawide and exceeding the convective temperature. As a result, shower and storm activity has started a bit earlier than CAM guidance initially suggested, with increasing coverage anticipated over the next several hours. The adequate daytime heating will support modest instability across the area, with MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg and likely increasing through the afternoon hours. DCAPE has already exceeded 800 J/kg per the 15Z XMR sounding, with guidance indicating some spots could exceed 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Interactions between outflow from this initial convection and the east coast sea breeze will be the primary drivers of robust convective development this afternoon into the evening hours, with storm hazards including frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 50-60 mph, heavy downpours thanks to PWATs exceeding 2" areawide, and a low chance of small hail. A Marginal Risk (1/5) of severe weather remains in effect from Titusville to Orlando and areas northward. Showers and storms will move offshore today, with the potential for some slow-moving activity. In areas that see slower moving showers and storms there is a greater risk for localized flooding, with rainfall accumulations of 2-5" possible. A majority of east central Florida remains under a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall today. Activity will gradually diminish and push offshore through this evening, with some lingering activity across the local waters possible overnight. Mostly dry across the peninsula tonight, with overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Tuesday...The Florida peninsula will remain under the broad influence of ridging aloft through early this week, with the mid- level high centered across Texas and the Four Corners region and its eastern ridge axis extending towards Florida. Northward, a trough gradually shifts off the east coast, prompting an area of low pressure just offshore the Mid Atlantic region to push farther offshore, with its associated frontal boundary stalling across the southeastern US. The Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the Florida peninsula. Locally, the Florida peninsula will remain within a plume of moisture through early this week, with PWATs exceeding 2.1". Coupled with persistent southwesterly winds and limited intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze, higher shower and storm chances will continue to be favored across the eastern portion of the peninsula, with PoPs ranging between 30-60%. Modest instability, steep low-level lapse rates, PWATs 2"+, and DCAPE exceeding 800 J/kg each afternoon will support storm development, with primary hazards including frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and heavy downpours that could result in some localized flooding. West to northwest steering flow will push activity offshore each day, with a 20-40% chance of activity persisting across the local Atlantic waters through the overnight hours while conditions remain mostly dry across the peninsula.

Near to above normal temperatures are forecast to persist across east central Florida through early this week, with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s on Monday and the low to upper 90s on Tuesday. The warmest temperatures will be focused across the northern portions of the area. Peak heat indices of 102-107F are anticipated areawide, with a low to medium chance of exceeding Heat Advisory criteria, especially across the northern counties. This will continue to be monitored closely and products will be issued as needed. Residents and visitors are encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat-related illness. Overnight temperatures will remain warm and muggy in the mid to upper 70s, with some spots potentially nearing 80 on Tuesday night near the metro areas.

Wednesday-Saturday...Mid-level troughing across the eastern US will strengthen, with 500 mb heights falling across the Florida peninsula mid to late week. A series of shortwaves will pass overhead, rounding the base of the trough and pushing southward across the Florida peninsula. At the surface, this will help push a quasi- stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US towards Florida, stalling just north of the area. The pressure gradient will tighten starting Wednesday, with southwesterly winds remaining breezy which will limit the chances for the east coast sea breeze to move inland. While the sea breeze won't necessarily be the primary driver behind shower and storm development, energy from the passing shortwaves aloft will support development across east central Florida each day, particularly during the afternoon hours from Thursday onward. Rain and storm chances will range between 30-40% on Wednesday, increasing to 50-70% areawide Thursday through Saturday, with lightning and gusty winds possible with storms. Another concern will be the risk for flooding, primarily driven by the continued active and wet pattern across the peninsula. WPC has already included northern portions of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday, so will continue to closely monitor the flooding threat as time goes on. Activity will move offshore through the evening hours, though lingering isolated to scattered development into the overnight hours cannot be ruled out, especially across northern portions of the area.

Temperatures will continue be above normal on Wednesday, with guidance hinting at the potential for exceeding Heat Advisory criteria across the north Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday and through late week, the increasing moisture from the stalled boundary will lead to increasing cloud coverage, which will limit some of the daytime heating across east central Florida but still keep conditions humid and muggy. While afternoon highs and overnight lows are forecast to trend closer to normal late this week, heat indices exceeding 100F are still anticipated across east central Florida. Residents and visitors will need to continue practicing heat safety through late week in order to avoid developing any heat-related illness.

MARINE

Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the local waters through most of this week, with southwesterly winds persisting. Winds of 5 to 15 knots are forecast through Tuesday, increasing to 15 to 20 knots Wednesday and Thursday as a quasi-stationary boundary drifts southward and leads to a tightening pressure gradient. Seas of 2-4 feet will be possible, with the chance for some 5 foot seas across the offshore waters due to the increasing winds. By Friday, winds are forecast to subside to 10 to 15 knots with seas of 1-3 feet.

The prevailing southwesterly flow through this week will favor offshore-moving showers and storms from the peninsula and across the local Atlantic waters each afternoon and into the overnight hours. Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and heavy downpours. Some lingering activity through the overnight hours will be possible each night, especially across the Gulf Stream waters.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1254 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

MCO IMPACTS: - 55-65% chance of storms between 18Z-00Z. - Low chance (5-10%) of convective wind gusts exceeding 50 KT in the strongest storms this afternoon.

After a quiet and sunny morning, we are seeing some initial development of storms across Central Florida. Upscale growth of storms should continue through late afternoon, with most terminals seeing some impacts from storms today. Have adjusted timing earlier for the TEMPOs to reflect radar trends. Highest concern will be strong convective gusts (> 35 KT) and brief IFR/LIFR restrictions beneath storms.

A lull in showers/storms is forecast overnight, though an earlier start (mid/late morning) to additional convection is favored in the guidance for Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 92 77 94 / 40 50 10 30 MCO 78 93 77 95 / 20 60 20 50 MLB 76 92 76 93 / 20 50 20 40 VRB 74 93 75 93 / 20 50 20 40 LEE 79 93 79 94 / 30 60 20 30 SFB 79 93 78 95 / 30 60 20 40 ORL 78 93 78 95 / 30 60 20 40 FPR 74 92 74 92 / 20 50 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.