textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms between roughly 3-11 PM Saturday, especially near and north of I-4. The primary hazard is a 5-15% chance for damaging wind gusts. There is also a small chance for large hail and a tornado.

- Hot ahead of the storms on Saturday, with widespread low/mid 90s in the afternoon. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast, which affects those sensitive to heat and/or without access to adequate hydration or cooling. Temps turn cooler on Sunday.

- Peak wind gusts from 30 to 35 mph expected ahead of any storms on Saturday afternoon. Combined with low relative humidity and drought conditions, sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are forecast. A Fire Weather WATCH is in effect on Saturday afternoon from Osceola and S Brevard Co's. and points southward. Outdoor burning is discouraged on Saturday!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Today-Tonight... Ridging aloft will stay in place today, with zonal flow in the upper levels prevailing. At the surface, a stationary boundary will remain to our north with high pressure axis to our south. Locally, this will produce an offshore (W/SW) flow around 10 mph today. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon and is expected to push farther inland than yesterday, due to the pressure gradient not being as tight. Most areas will remain dry today, with only isolated showers possible as the sea breeze pushes inland across the north. Temperatures remain unseasonably warm today, with afternoon highs in the lower 90s across the interior, and upper 80s along the coast. There is a Minor to Moderate HeatRisk today, affecting those who are sensitive to heat and without adequate cooling and hydration.

There is a High risk of rip currents at all area beaches once again today. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs.

Saturday... Upper level low pressure across Ontario with axis extending across the Midwest and into TX will steadily shift eastward, deepening as it shifts towards the eastern seaboard. At the surface, a cold front draped across the Deep South and the Florida panhandle will slowly drop southward across central Florida through the day and overnight hours. There remains some uncertainty on how quickly the front will push through, with the GFS being slightly faster compared to the ECMWF as it shows the front clearing ECFL and pushing into South Florida before daybreak on Sunday. Locally, the pressure gradient will tighten as the Florida peninsula is situated between the approaching cold front to the north and the high pressure across the western Atlantic to the south. Strong and gusty WSW winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph will develop by late morning and continue into the afternoon. A Wind Advisory will most likely be needed. Temperatures will be well above normal and near record highs on Saturday before the front moves through. Afternoon highs will reach the low 90s across Lake/Volusia counties (due to the increase in cloud cover and rain chances), and mid 90s everywhere else, especially across the Space and Treasure Coasts. A Moderate HeatRisk is forecast across all of east central Florida, with a chance for a Major HeatRisk for the Space and Treasure coasts.

Rain and storm chances return on Saturday along and ahead of the front. While CAM guidance is in agreement with a faster convective evolution, there remains some disagreement with exact timing of the convection. However, current guidance shows the convective band reaching the northern counties of the CWA by early to mid-afternoon. Convection is forecast to weaken after sunset as it pushes southward into Okeechobee/Treasure coast. There is a medium to high (40-70 percent) chance of showers and storms from Orlando metro area northward, and a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers and storms southward towards northern Indian River/Okeechobee counties in the afternoon and evening. Rain chances then increase to 50-70 percent area wide in the evening and overnight hours as the front continues to push southward across the local area. The storm environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across Brevard/Osceola counties northward, with forecast soundings showing an increase in moisture (PW values of 1.5-1.8"), cooler temperatures aloft (-10 to -11C at 500mb), sufficient instability (MUCAPE 900-1300 J/kg), ample upper level shear (50-70 knots), as well as an adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE around 500-800 J/kg). Stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-60 mph, hail and even a tornado or two can not be ruled out. The best chance for damaging winds and large hail (5-14%) will be across northern Lake/Volusia counties where SPC has a Slight risk (level 2/5), with a Marginal risk (level 1/5) to the south. Areas from Osceola/Brevard counties northward will have a 2-4% chance for a tornado.

Fire weather conditions will be very sensitive on Saturday prior to any rain and storms due hot temperatures, low min RH values (around 35-45 percent), strong/gusty winds, as well as already dry conditions across ECFL. Lightning strikes may spark brush fires that smolder for a day or two before flaring up.

Sunday... The aforementioned upper level trough across the eastern US will continue to push eastward and offshore into the Atlantic through the day, eventually forming a closed low near Maine/New Brunswick/Nova Scotia. The cold front located near the southern Treasure Coast/Southern Florida line near day break will continue to shift southward through the day. Locally, the pressure gradient will slacken slightly, causing the NE winds to settle to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph possible at times. Scattered to numerous showers and storms ongoing from Saturday night will continue, shifting southward through the day. Considerable clouds and cooler temps will limit the threat for strong/severe storms. Because of this, the main storm threats will be heavy rainfall, frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds of 40-50 mph. The greatest potential for a heavy rain threat to evolve will be across southern sections (Okeechobee/ Treasure coast) where the Weather Prediction Center has out outlined in a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook. This is supported by the GFS forecast PW values being around 2.0" across the southern CWA with drier air forecast to filter in across the north behind the front (PW values 1.2-1.5"). Temperatures will be below normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s, and may reach low 80s across the northern far interior. Overnight lows will be near to slightly below normal, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s across the north, and low to mid 60s across the south.

Monday-Friday... Ridging aloft will stay in place through the period, sliding southward into late week as an upper level low across the Midwest swings into the NE by Friday. At the surface, high pressure extending from the Gulf Coast States across the Southeast U.S will weaken into mid-week, shifting seaward into the western Atlantic. The next frontal boundary will then drop southward into the Deep South by mid/late week, pushing southward across the Florida peninsula on Friday. Locally, onshore flow (E/SE) will prevail through Wednesday, becoming gusty each afternoon behind the east coast sea breeze. Winds will then turn westerly on Thursday ahead of the front, and north/northeast on Friday behind the front.

Lingering moisture from the stalled front over South Florida/ Straits of Florida will keep a low (20 percent) chance of showers across Martin and St. Lucie Counties on Monday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions forecast through mid week. Rain and storm chances return Thursday as the next frontal boundary approaches the local area. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain and storms Thursday and Friday as the front moves southward across the area. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the period, with afternoon highs soaring into the low to mid 90s by mid week.

MARINE

Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Today-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions this afternoon before conditions become poor overnight, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. South to southwest winds 5-10 KT will veer onshore this afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Winds then shift south to southwest once again overnight and increase to 15-20 KT from Cape Canaveral southward (winds 10-15 KT northward). Small craft should exercise caution from Cape Canaveral southward overnight. Seas 2-3 ft in the near shore waters, and 3-4ft in the offshore waters this afternoon before building to 3-5ft overnight.

Saturday-Tuesday... Deteriorating boating conditions on Saturday as a cold front approaches and pushes southward across the area on Saturday into Sunday. Southwest winds will generally be at 15-20 KT Saturday, with a period of near 20 KT offshore in the afternoon ahead of the front. Wind then shift out of the north Saturday night into Sunday behind the front, then out of the northeast Sunday night/Monday as an elongated high pressure to the north builds over the area. Wind speeds 15-20 KT behind the front decreasing 10-15 KT Monday. Winds veer east on Tue around 10 KT as the ridge axis approaches the area. Seas build 3-5 ft Saturday before building to 4- 5 ft Sunday with up to 6 ft in the offshore waters. Seas begin to subside slightly on Monday, with seas 3-4 ft in the nearshore and up to 5-6 ft in the offshore waters. Seas the decrease to 3-4 ft area wide Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms (chances up to 70 percent) will accompany the frontal passage Saturday afternoon into Sunday, decreasing Sunday night, with isolated to scattered showers and storms (chances 20-30 percent) remaining possible south of Ft Pierce Inlet Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

MCO IMPACTS: - Gusty southwest winds from late morning through the afternoon. Peak gusts to around 30 KT. - Scattered TS with a low (10-20%) chance for wind gusts exceeding 35 KT between 02/21Z - 03/01Z. - Wind shift to NW on this evening behind TSRA/SHRA, followed by a period of MVFR CIGs tonight.

Mainly VFR conditions through the morning. Models still periodically showing low (10-30%) chances for stratus to develop between INVOF inland terminals between 09Z-13Z, but don't have enough confidence to include in TAFs. Light W-SSW winds early this morning quickly increase ahead of an approaching front to SW 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts after 13Z, then further increase to 15-20 kts with gusts to around 30 kts after 16Z, and can't rule out winds occasionally pushing higher in the early afternoon. SCT TSRA along/ahead of the front arrive at KLEE/KDAB first around 18Z, gradually pushing south over the next several hours, reaching the KSUA around 02Z, then dissipating after 05Z. ISO +TSRA that could produce wind gusts exceeding 35 kts possible, especially from KMLB north between 19Z-03Z. High moisture near the front will continue to produce -SHRA and drop CIGs to MVFR behind the main convective line through most of the night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are likely on Saturday ahead of a cold front. Much-above-normal temperatures in the 90s are expected within a well-mixed boundary layer, which will allow gusty winds to reach the surface. Sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph are forecast, and peak gusts from 25-35 mph should occur during the afternoon. A sea breeze is not expected. Greater sunshine over the Space and Treasure Coasts should allow RH values to sink into the 30-35% range. For this reason, we have highlighted Osceola - S Brevard and points southward in a Fire Weather WATCH. Farther north over Greater Orlando, similar wind speeds/gusts are likely but mixing may be limited just enough by cloudiness to keep RH readings just above our Red Flag criteria, in the 36-45% range. Coincident with the ongoing drought and quickly- drying fuels, outdoor burning is highly discouraged on Saturday.

By Sunday, winds turn northeasterly and decrease to 10-15 mph. RH values may briefly dip into the upper 30s-mid 40s in the afternoon north of I-4.

CLIMATE

Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites Saturday:

Site May 2 DAB 95 (1953) LEE 95 (1990) SFB 94 (2010) MCO 97 (1906) MLB 95 (2002) VRB 94 (2002) FPR 95 (2002)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 61 77 61 / 60 50 10 0 MCO 92 64 79 64 / 40 70 20 10 MLB 93 67 78 67 / 20 60 40 20 VRB 94 68 77 66 / 20 60 60 30 LEE 88 61 80 60 / 60 60 10 0 SFB 91 63 80 61 / 40 60 10 10 ORL 90 64 80 63 / 40 60 20 10 FPR 94 68 77 66 / 10 60 60 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ053-058-154-159-164-254-259-264-547-647-747.

AM...None.