textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2206

- Scattered showers and lightning storms continue this afternoon and evening, becoming locally numerous in coverage along the sea breeze collision. A few strong storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, localized wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall. - Drier air begins to build mid to late week, reducing rain chances Wednesday and especially on Thursday.

- A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2206

Current-Wednesday... Highest afternoon/evening rain chances continue across the eastern peninsula with late day sea breeze/boundary collisions. ISOLD-SCT lightning storms will develop initially along the inland moving sea breezes (east/west), with coverage and intensity (SCT-NMRS/40-60% today & 20-40% Wed) increasing late day/early evening from numerous boundary collisions. Storm steering will, again, be light out of the west bringing some storms back to the coast, though movement will be slow/erratic at times surrounding stronger collisions. A few storms locally strong with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-55 mph locally, and heavy downpours leading to minor/nuisance flooding which will be handled with Flood Advisories as necessary. Activity will diminish thru mid evening, though light debris rainfall could linger a bit. Skies gradually thinning thru the night.

Max temps in the L-M90s with peak heat indices 104-107F ahead of sea breeze/precip. On Wed, we could see some U90s north of I-4. We may flirt with 108F+ over a large portion of the area on Wed and later shifts will monitor in the event a Heat Advisory is necessary. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Min temps consistent and in the 70s with conditions remaining very humid.

Thu-Mon...Weak high pressure ridging continues across the central to north/central FL peninsula into the weekend. Drier air forecast Thu/Fri with arrival of Saharan Dust leading to a period of below normal rain chances. Mostly dry on Thu (5-20% - highest moisture north of I-4) and 10-50% - highest south/Okeechobee for Fri. Latest model guidance has gone higher with PoPs this weekend (20-60%), highest south of Orlando on Sat & highest north of I-4 on Sun. PoPs 30-60% on Mon with highest again north of I-4.

The main weather story for this period will center around the building heat across the area. Mid-level ridging across the region will become stronger as subsidence increases and H500 temps range between -5.5C to -7.0C. This will lead to a period of above normal temperatures, especially near and north of I-4. Expect highs in the L-M90s near the coast and M-U90s into the interior - highest values near/north of I-4. A building (Widespread Major to locally Extreme) HeatRisk is expected to affect those without adequate cooling and hydration. Trends will be monitored for any potential Heat Advisories as peak heat index values may near or exceed the 108F threshold across portions of the area by late week. A mid to upper level trough digs into the southeast U.S. early next week, and temperatures gradually fall a couple/few degrees by Mon.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2206

Thru Sat...Weak high pressure ridging will lift slowly from south- central FL toward the central & north-central peninsula thru late week. This will produce generally favorable winds/seas. Expect one more day of showers and lightning storms potentially affecting the intracoastal and near shore waters in the late afternoon & evening, then a period of drier conditions mid to late week, though cannot rule out ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection during this time. Light SW/S flow will transition onshore each afternoon with sea breeze formation and push inland. Late aftn/evening winds may increase to 14-17 kts over the open Atlc (generally north of the Cape), but otherwise speeds AOB 15 kts. Winds and seas locally higher invof convection. Seas 1-2 ft occasionally increase to 3 ft far offshore early this week, and by Thursday seas build to more widely range 2-3 ft across the local waters (perhaps 4 ft briefly well offshore north of Cape).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2206

Increasing coverage of showers and storms are forecast through this afternoon, with TEMPOs/PROB30s at all terminals between 18-22Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Activity diminishes after 00Z, with light and variable winds forecast overnight and through Wednesday morning. ECSB development will cause winds to become E along the coast after 16Z. Lower confidence on shower and storm development on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 93 77 94 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 77 95 78 97 / 30 30 20 10 MLB 77 92 78 92 / 10 20 10 0 VRB 76 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 78 94 79 95 / 20 20 20 20 SFB 77 95 78 97 / 30 30 20 20 ORL 77 94 79 96 / 30 30 20 20 FPR 75 91 76 92 / 10 20 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.