textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, with slightly greater coverage forecast on Sunday. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and some small hail are possible.

- Favorable boating conditions through the weekend, becoming poor over the Gulf Stream Monday into Tuesday behind a front.

- Warming up this weekend, slightly cooler along the coast early next week, then hotter mid to late week as high pressure builds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Today-Sunday... A mid-level troughy pattern continues with pulses of shortwave energy passing within northwest flow aloft. A surface ridge axis loosely holds influence as high pressure weakens. Moisture profiles start dry today with PWATs modeled around 1.1". Moisture recovers (1.4-1.5") into the afternoon in vicinity of the next passing shortwave. Best shower and storm chances (20-30%) should increase as a sea breeze collision occurs near the Orlando metro late in the day. Any activity which becomes aided by the passing energy aloft will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and even small hail. A daily sea breeze pattern continues Sunday. However, offshore flow should favor a west coast sea breeze regime, keeping the east coast breeze closer to the I-95 corridor. Coverage slightly increases Sunday, becoming more widely scattered (30-50%). RAP analysis may suggest yet another shortwave passing aloft Sunday which could again support a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and small hail. New fire starts are a concern with lightning activity. Steering flow may guide convection or lingering rainfall back toward the coast each afternoon and evening, with some coastal activity forecast to linger a few hours beyond sunset.

High temperatures should remain above normal through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 80s today will slightly warm along the coast Sunday as the east coast sea breeze is slower to develop. A Minor HeatRisk will exist across portions of the area today, expanding across much of east central Florida Sunday. Proper hydration will be essential if participating in outdoor activities this weekend.

Monday-Friday... A weak 500mb trough moves offshore the Carolina and mid Atlantic Coast early Monday, followed quickly by a second trough moving offshore the northeast coast. Developing surface low pressure in the western Atlantic will guide a "back-door" cold front across east central Florida Monday. Monday's PoPs (20-30%) have shown only a slight increase along the front before drier air spreads across the region. Models are becoming in better agreement in a cold front approaching the area into Thursday, but there remains uncertainty in how cleanly the front may pass.

High temperatures trend near normal along the coast Monday and Tuesday reaching above normal values across the interior (mid/upper 80s). A continued hotter trend builds from Wednesday onward with highs climbing into the 90s across much of the interior each day.

MARINE

Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Favorable boating conditions continue through the weekend. Light winds shift south to southeast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon, and seas hold 2-3 ft. Mostly dry across the local waters today outside a few showers or storms that may push offshore late this afternoon and early this evening. Another round of showers will be possible Sunday night into early Monday morning, primarily over the offshore waters. Coverage of isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-40%) is forecast to more broadly spread the local Atlantic waters Sunday afternoon and evening.

Winds shift northeast 10-15 kts into Monday as a weak cold front pushes across the waters. Seas briefly build 4-6 ft Monday night, subsiding 3-4 ft by late Wednesday. Drier conditions return from Tuesday onward as high pressure returns.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 142 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions prevailing. Dry overnight, with isolated to scattered showers forecast along the sea breeze Saturday afternoon. CAMs disagree on the timing and placement of convection, but the highest coverage looks to occur over the interior (MCO/ISM/SFB), where TEMPOs have been included for peak timing. A few storms can't be ruled out, though instability is modest and confidence is low. There could be some drift back towards the coast in the late afternoon and evening hours thanks to westerly steering flow. Have included VCSH from MLB northward along the coast to account for this. Otherwise, SE winds increase to 8-12 kts along and behind the sea breeze, becoming light overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Sensitive minRH values continue across portions of the interior today before moisture gradually recovers Sunday and Monday. Light winds shift east-southeast around 10-15 mph this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. The west coast sea breeze becomes favored Sunday, and west winds increase 10-15 mph across much of the interior in the afternoon. However, a weaker, slower east coast breeze will still manage to shift wind east-southeast in vicinity of the I-95 corridor Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon. Increasing coverage of scattered showers and storms is forecast Sunday, and new fire starts are a concern with lightning activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 85 64 87 66 / 30 10 40 20 MCO 88 66 88 68 / 30 20 50 10 MLB 84 67 86 68 / 20 20 40 20 VRB 84 66 87 66 / 20 20 40 20 LEE 88 65 87 67 / 20 0 40 10 SFB 89 65 88 67 / 30 20 50 10 ORL 89 67 88 68 / 30 20 50 10 FPR 84 65 87 65 / 20 20 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.