textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Poor beach and boating conditions persist today. A high risk of rip currents is forecast at all local beaches and small craft should exercise caution across the local Atlantic waters.

- Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, though some isolated sprinkles and showers due to persistent onshore flow cannot be ruled out.

- Low to medium rain chances anticipated early next week as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions forecast mid to late week behind the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure situated across the southeastern US will gradually lift northeastward today towards the Mid-Atlantic. Locally, mostly dry conditions are anticipated to persist thanks to PWATs of less than an inch. However, winds veer easterly across the area today, and some low-topped, isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out across the local Atlantic waters. There is a low chance for some of these showers to move onshore due to the easterly flow, so have a 15% chance for rain primarily from the Cape southward through the morning hours. CAM guidance then indicates activity waning into the afternoon hours, with mostly dry conditions prevailing. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 70s. By tonight, the surface high is forecast to weaken and push offshore as an area of low pressure and its attendant cold front move eastward across the central US. Moisture continues to increase locally thanks to the persistent easterly flow, with a return of rain chances across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Warmer tonight with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s areawide.

At the local beaches, rough surf and a high risk of rip currents are forecast today due to higher seas and persistent, strong onshore flow. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

Sunday-Tuesday...The aforementioned cold front moving across the central US is anticipated to stall out across the southeastern US late this weekend into early next week, just north of the Florida peninsula. This will result in persistent onshore flow and increasing moisture across east central Florida through Monday, which will support isolated showers across portions of east central Florida and isolated to scattered showers across the local Atlantic waters. Monday into Tuesday, and area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the boundary across the Gulf. This low will lift northeastward into Tuesday, moving from the Gulf towards the Mid- Atlantic. This will finally drag a cold front across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. Rain chances are forecast to increase out ahead of the front, with PoPs currently reaching 20-50% areawide, with the greatest rain chances focused near and north of the I-4 corridor. The environment looks unfavorable for storm development, so continued to leave out mention of any thunder for the time being. The front will move southward across the peninsula into the overnight hours, with activity gradually diminishing as drier air moves in behind the front.

Temperatures across east central Florida are forecast to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday through Monday, increasing into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday. Lows generally remain in the 60s, with some upper 50s possible across the north on Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Friday...The front sags south of the area early on Wednesday, with an area of surface high pressure forecast to build across the southeastern US. Dry air settles across the Florida peninsula, which will keep conditions mostly dry locally mid to late week. Northerly winds Wednesday and Thursday eventually veer to out of the east to south-southeast on Friday, which will help advect moisture northward towards east central Florida late this week into the weekend. A return of low rain chances will be possible late Friday with the next possible frontal passage occurring over the weekend. Through Friday, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low 70s to low 80s, with the temperature gradient going from north to south, respectively. Lows generally in the 50s to low 60s areawide.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Poor boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through at least today and into tonight. Winds veer onshore as the surface high to the north moves northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, with wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots. Seas maintain between 4 to 6 feet through Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution across all local Atlantic waters due to these poor boating conditions. Late Sunday and into early next week, onshore winds subside to 10 to 15 knots, with seas generally between 2 to 5 feet. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday, with winds veering to out of the south-southwest ahead of it at 15 to 20 knots and then veering to out of the north on Wednesday behind the front at 10 to 15 knots. Portions of the offshore waters may build back to 6 feet very briefly Tuesday into Wednesday, but the vast majority of the waters are anticipated to remain between 2 to 5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local Atlantic waters each day, with the greatest rain chances forecast on Tuesday out ahead of the front. High pressure builds in behind the front on Wednesday, with dry conditions anticipated once again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 648 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

A low to mid level cloud deck is beginning to spread onshore this morning, but CIGs are forecast to remain VFR. East-northeast winds have become established along the coast with gusts already observed between 20-23 kts. Gusty east winds spread across the interior near or after 15Z, persisting through the afternoon. VCSH along the Treasure Coast through 15Z. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 61 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 72 61 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 74 64 79 66 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 75 64 80 66 / 20 10 20 10 LEE 72 58 80 62 / 0 10 10 10 SFB 72 60 80 63 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 72 61 80 64 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 75 64 80 66 / 20 10 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.