textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- Continued hot and humid this week with peak heat indices up to 105. - Highest rain and lightning storm chances shift farther west as flow becomes more onshore.

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Current-Tonight...Weak Atlc ridge axis will continue to lift from central FL northward over the next 24 hours. Winds will become increasingly SERLY up to 10 mph over the interior and 10-15 mph at the coast. A slug of moisture (PWAT > 2") will move up from the Treasure Coast thru ECFL and into WCFL during the day and evening. The ECSB will develop late morning/early afternoon (1st across the Treasure Coast) and advance quickly inland during the remainder of the afternoon and early evening; an eventual collision with its west coast counterpart likely west of the Kissimmee River. With surface heating, 500 mb temps -6.5C to -8.0C, increasing moisture, and subtle impulses aloft, we can expect SCT-NMRS coverage and highest storm intensity by late afternoon and early evening into the interior. Convection will get an early start with the sea breeze across coastal counties, esp Treasure Coast.

Primary storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes, localized wind gusts of 40-50 mph, torrential downpours leading to locally rainfall amounts of 1-3+ inches, and perhaps some small hail. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked ALL of ECFL in a Marginal threat for Excessive Rainfall. Storm steering is light south to southwest, but we will likely see erratic cell motion due to the overall weak flow and stronger boundary collisions. The inland- moving sea breeze will take increasing convection into the interior during the day/evening, with activity diminishing across the WCFL peninsula mid to late evening. There will be a small threat for onshore-moving convection overnight into Thu morning, thanks in part to the deep moisture and onshore flow.

Seasonally warm temperatures today with highs in the U80s near the coast and L90s into the interior. Lower overall maxes than recent days due to the sea breeze developing earlier and pushing inland quicker. Still with increased humidity values, our peak heat indices will still realize U90s to L100s (possibly to 105F in a few spots). Overnight, conditions muggy, with mins in the L-M70s, possibly U70s for barrier islands.

Thu-Tue...The weak Atlc high pressure ridge axis will continue to venture northward, with a trend to focus back southward toward central FL later this weekend into early next week. This will lead to predominant SE flow into the weekend. The ECSB will develop and push inland each afternoon with storm steering out of the S/SSW and light speeds. A degree of erratic cell movement likely, esp surrounding stronger afternoon/evening boundary collisions. SCT-NMRS shower/storm coverage daily (highest interior & I-4 corridor) with diminishing chances into the evening and overnight. Coastal locations may be brushed each overnight/early morning thru Sat due to the onshore nature.

Aloft, mid-level ridging over the western Atlc builds back toward the central FL peninsula into the weekend and early next week. This will cause rising mid-level heights and warming temps in the -5.5C to -7.0C range which could limit overall instability somewhat. This may be enough to limit PoPs later into the extended (also Saharan Dust Layer dependent) and current numbers may have to be addressed downward a bit.

Max temps continue in the U80s to L90s thru the weekend, but we could see a bump to L-M90s early-mid next week as the mid-level high is centered closer to ECFL. Peak heat indices 98-105F, with possibly slightly higher early-mid next week as temps rise.

MARINE

Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Today-Mon...The Atlc ridge axis lifts from central FL northward thru late week, but begins to shift back southward later into the weekend and early next week. Increasingly SE flow into the weekend with speeds AOB 15 kts. With a quicker developing sea breeze and farther push inland over the period, later afternoon and evening storms will focus over the interior (land), though we will see late morning/early afternoon development near the coast with the sea breeze formation. ISOLD-SCT coverage of convection over the local waters during the night/morning hours, some of which could be onshore-moving. Seas 2-3 ft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions will largely continue outside of any showers and storms. Isolated showers may brush along the Treasure Coast, mainly near KSUA through this morning. Otherwise, majority of convection will be limited to the afternoon/early evening, as scattered to numerous showers and storms develop along and ahead of the east coast sea breeze as it forms and shifts westward, eventually colliding with the west coast breeze near to west of KLEE toward sunset. Greatest rain chances will be inland, and will maintain TEMPO groups for 3SM TSRA for interior TAF sites from around 20-23Z at KMCO/KISM/KSFB and 21-24Z at KLEE. Will keep mention limited to VCTS at coastal TAF sites for now from 17-21Z for KMLB-KSUA and 18-22Z at KDAB/KTIX.

Winds will be out of the S/SE up to 5-7 knots, becoming E/SE 8-12 knots this afternoon behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze. Winds then diminish out of the E/SE into tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 73 89 74 / 50 20 50 20 MCO 91 75 91 75 / 60 20 70 20 MLB 87 76 88 76 / 50 20 50 20 VRB 88 75 89 75 / 40 20 50 10 LEE 92 75 91 75 / 60 30 70 30 SFB 92 75 91 75 / 60 20 60 20 ORL 91 75 91 75 / 60 20 70 20 FPR 87 74 88 75 / 50 20 50 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.