textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Summer arrives right on time and a hot week is on tap. High temperatures forecast in the low to mid 90s, pushing towards the upper 90s inland, resulting in peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits with widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts.

- Dry air lowers afternoon/evening rain and lightning storm chances below normal (20-40%) thru Tuesday, then chances pick back up the latter half of the week as moisture returns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Current-Tonight...Hot & humid, typical summer day in ECFL. Max temperatures to realize L90s at the coast with M90s (few U90s) into the interior, with peak heat indices 101-107. A little drier (low-levels) & warmer aloft than previous days, thus lower PoP chances 20-40% for this afternoon/evening. Sea breeze collision across the interior with a little push-back to the coast for a few cells before convection diminishes thru mid-evening. Localized minor flooding possible as a storm or two could deliver a quick 2-3" rainfall amount over a short period. Storm motion otherwise slow/erratic due to multiple boundary collisions. Primary storm impacts include frequent lightning strikes in a few storms, torrential downpours and locally strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible. Thinning skies tonight with eventual mins in the M-U70s. Not including fog mention in the grids/forecast, but given moisture from rain from past few days cannot rule out some localized shallow, patchy fog briefly towards Tue morning.

Tue-Tue Night...Similar forecast to Mon. Hot and humid conditions continue. Highs again in the 90s areawide with peak heat indices staying below Heat Advisory criteria, but still in the triple digits for most. Still advertising widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts. Highest precip chances later in the afternoon and early evening, with best chance south of Orlando 20-40% as low-levels remain drier. Rain chances continue below 20% near & north or Orlando. Convection, again, centered around later day boundary collisions and surface heating with available moisture.

Wed-Sun...Pattern stays stagnant a bit stagnant until some deeper moisture surges back into the area. Weak ridging aloft drifts from the western Atlc back west across the FL peninsula and into the eastern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure ridging to the south will drift back north toward central FL into the weekend. Pre-dominant offshore (albeit weak) surface flow (occasionally southerly) continues into the weekend, but "backs" onshore each afternoon with sea breeze formation and march inland. Diurnal showers/storms, scattered to locally numerous (Wed/Thu), continue thru the period. Highest coverage over the interior late day and early evening, with some push back towards the coast each evening. Forecasted HeatRisk between widespread Moderate to Major with pockets of Extreme impacts on any given day.

MARINE

Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Thru Fri...Generally favorable boating conditions continue. Weak surface ridge axis remains situated stationed over south FL mid- week, then begins to drift further northward toward central FL. Flow generally offshore (WSW-SW) shifting onshore (SE-E) each afternoon, though flow may become more southerly later in the period as the ridge axis begins to lift north. Wind speeds generally 5-15 kts, peaking to 15 kts or more at times in the evenings offshore. Seas 1- 2 ft, but locally higher invof showers/lightning storms. The east coast sea breeze will be able to move inland most days, lowering chances for offshore-moving showers and storms in the late afternoon and evening, with highest chances Wed/Thu.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period outside of storms with high pressure (~1020mb) over the E GOA. W winds at 5-10kts at KDAB & the inland locations are forecast with E winds at the coastal locations to the S of KDAB before becoming light & variable into the overnight. VCTS is forecast after 19Z/20Z with PROB30 groups this PM for -TSRA at KMCO/KDAB/KISM/KSFB/KTIX.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 95 76 92 / 30 10 20 50 MCO 77 96 77 94 / 30 10 10 50 MLB 78 93 77 92 / 20 30 10 40 VRB 77 94 76 94 / 10 30 20 40 LEE 77 95 78 93 / 0 10 30 50 SFB 77 96 77 94 / 30 10 10 60 ORL 78 95 78 93 / 30 10 20 50 FPR 77 93 76 93 / 10 40 20 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.