textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

- A significant cooldown is on the way behind today's cold front, prompting a Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory Friday morning for much of east central Florida

- Showers ending through the morning from west to east as drier air moves across the peninsula - Temperatures rebound briefly on Saturday before another strong cold front arrives Sunday afternoon, producing cold mornings and cool afternoons through at least Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Today-Tonight...The strong cold front, advertised to bring sharply colder air to east central Florida, is on its way into the northern part of the state this morning. To illustrate the temperature difference, as of 2 AM, it was 58 degrees in Melbourne. Tallahassee was 50 degrees and Atlanta, Georgia was 33 degrees. Showers are quickly moving from west to east across the FL Peninsula, though radar indicates that some of this activity is working to overcome residual dry air in the mid levels. With regard to rain chances, this forecast follows closely to the hourly NBM and a blend of CAM guidance, suggesting showers ending around midday. As the front itself pushes south through the area from daybreak onward, northwest winds are expected to increase. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph are forecast, ushering in cooler, drier air from the north. Highs today in many spots will occur late morning or early in the afternoon before the cooler air starts to filter south in the afternoon. Cloud cover from the morning is forecast to erode north to south after lunchtime as model soundings show rapid drying occurring behind the front.

While winds do decrease some this evening into tonight, speeds remain 5-10 mph through early Friday morning (up to 15 mph at the coast). With clear sky conditions and efficient cold air advection, temperatures will plummet after dark into the 30s and 40s. Wind chill values around midnight are likely to approach the freezing mark, particularly near and north of I-4. Before temperatures fall this evening/tonight, be sure to bring pets inside and protect plants and pipes from freezing. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory have been issued for most of the area, as a result of forecast lows in the upper 20s to low 30s and wind chills in the 20s before sunrise Friday.

Friday-Saturday...Surface high pressure becomes centered over the FL Peninsula Friday, helping to settle wind speeds below 10 mph. As mentioned, Friday morning starts very cold with freezing temperatures in many locations and well-below-freezing wind chills. Before stepping out the door, stay warm by bundling up with extra layers, a hat, and gloves. Despite a full day of sunshine, temperatures Friday afternoon are only forecast to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s areawide. Another cold night is in store Friday night, though there is going to be a bit of a range from north to south. NBM probabilities for temperatures 32 degrees or less are 20-30% across far northwestern Volusia and Lake counties, so we are not anticipating another freeze Saturday morning.

850mb flow from the SSW returns Saturday, helping to warm us up in concert with plenty of sunshine. How about a 70-degree day to thaw things out before more cold arrives Sunday night? If you are looking for the pick day to get outdoors, Saturday is that day. Lows Saturday night remain cool but are about 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared to Friday night. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out south of the Cape late Saturday night into Sunday morning, though most activity will remain offshore.

Sunday-Wednesday...500mb troughing digs south Sunday morning with formidable energy rounding the base of the trough over central Florida Sunday afternoon. Models favor a band of showers approaching the northwest corner of our area from midday through mid afternoon. However, dry air rushing south behind another strong cold front undercuts precipitation. Thus, only a 15-20% chance of rain is forecast for now, generally Orlando to Cape Canaveral and points north. Northwest winds are also expected to pick back up along and behind the front Sunday afternoon, gusting 20-25 mph. The latest guidance has trended temperatures down, suggesting a repeat of both freezing temperatures and sub-30 degree wind chills again Monday morning. NBM and LREF probabilities of 32 degrees or lower are already 30-60% or higher from south to north over portions of the interior. Overall, Monday looks cold with highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

An expansive area of high pressure settles over the central CONUS Tuesday, shifting south and east by midweek. Locally, another cold start to the day is anticipated Tuesday with breezy north winds sending wind chills back into the upper 20s and low 30s. Cold Weather Advisories are likely Monday and possible again Tuesday morning if these trends in wind and temperature guidance persist. High pressure sticks around through Wednesday, and temperatures look to recover by then, reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. Looking ahead, temperatures close to normal (if not slightly above normal) return Thursday, perhaps lingering through late week or the early part of next weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Marine conditions quickly turn hazardous this morning as a cold front passes over the local waters. Northwest winds are forecast to increase, reaching 20-25 kt by midday and 25-30 kt over the Gulf Stream this afternoon. Occasional gusts to gale force cannot be ruled out over the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories begin early this morning in the offshore marine legs, expanding to include all of the local Atlantic by 10 AM EST. Seas respond, building to 4-6 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft offshore this afternoon. At their peak, 10 ft seas are possible in the Gulf Stream tonight into early Friday morning.

High pressure builds over Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters Friday, helping to quickly settle winds and eventually wave heights. Hazardous boating may linger in the offshore through early afternoon with generally favorable conditions resuming everywhere Friday night into Saturday. Seas Saturday morning fall to 1-3 ft.

Another strong cold front is set to move through Sunday into early Monday, producing another episode of gusty northwest winds and hazardous seas to start the next work week. Poor to hazardous conditions resume as early as Sunday morning, spreading southward through the day. Additional Small Craft Advisories are likely Sunday into at least Monday morning.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

VCSH continues at most terminals this morning as a cold front continues southward across the Florida peninsula. Some VIS and CIG reductions have occurred due to -SHRA, so have kept TEMPOs in at MLB southward where activity is strongest. Showers are forecast to diminish by 17Z, with dry and breezy conditions anticipated behind the front. Northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots will be possible this afternoon, with winds gradually diminishing into the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are possible over the next several days. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph today will lead to excellent dispersion, along with lower humidity values working into locations north of I-4. On Friday, lighter winds resume but lower humidity builds south across interior east central Florida. Some moisture returns to the area Saturday before another cold front Sunday into Monday brings drier air and sensitive fire conditions early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 59 31 59 41 / 40 0 0 0 MCO 60 34 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 MLB 64 34 62 47 / 70 0 0 0 VRB 66 34 64 46 / 70 0 0 0 LEE 57 30 59 39 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 59 32 61 41 / 40 0 0 0 ORL 59 34 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 FPR 66 33 64 46 / 70 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-247-254-259-547.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ347- 647.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ555.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ572-575.