textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Above normal temperatures through Thursday with near record highs, especially across the interior

- Low rain chances through mid-week, before a cold front brings scattered showers and storms late week and into the weekend

- Deteriorating boating conditions late week, as winds increase and seas build

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Today-Wednesday...Surface high pressure over the Florida peninsula today shifts eastward into the Atlantic through Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge also traverses the state, moving across from the Gulf, ahead of an approaching front. Generally dry conditions will prevail through mid-week, as ridging suppresses most development. However, have added in a slight chance (~20%) for a few showers generally north and west of a line from Kissimmee to Lake George late this afternoon and into this evening, as the sea breezes collide in that area. Dry air aloft should prevent thunderstorm formation, with lightning chances below 10%. PoPs overall for Wednesday remain below 10%, with even drier air at the surface.

Some patchy to areas of fog possible early this morning will burn off after sunrise, with additional patchy for possible generally south of Orlando overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Light and variable winds increase in the morning hours, becoming southeast around 5-10 mph. Winds further increase into the afternoon as the sea breeze develops, becoming 10-15 mph along the coast. Hot temperatures continue, with highs up to 8-13 degrees above average. Near record to record temperatures are forecast for interior locations, as well as Daytona Beach (see Climate section for more details). Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast west of I-95, while the sea breeze keeps coastal areas in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday-Tuesday...Low pressure moving across northern New England drags a cold front through the Southeast on Thursday, before moving through the local area Thursday night. Rain chances increase from north to south Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with PoPs up to 40-60%. Scattered lightning storms will also be possible, with the main threats of gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy downpours. Southwest flow near 10-15 mph in the afternoon will once again produce well above normal temperatures, with even coastal areas reaching the upper 80s due to a pinned sea breeze.

High pressure redevelops over the western Atlantic into the weekend and early next week, with the ridge axis near Florida. However, a series of passing shortwaves aloft and ample moisture will maintain rain chances near 40-60% Friday and Saturday. PoPs increase Sunday into Monday (60-70%), as south and southwesterly flow advects PWATs near 1.6" into the peninsula ahead of yet another front Monday night. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible. High coverage of clouds and showers will support nearer to normal highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, as lows remain in the 60s. Drier air, lower rain chances, and below normal temperatures (highs upper 60s/lower 70s, lows 50s) are forecast Tuesday behind the next front.

MARINE

Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through mid-week, as high pressure lingers, then weakens over the local waters. Rain chances remain below 10% for the coastal and offshore waters through Wednesday. South to southeast winds increase to 10-15 kts in the afternoons, as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Seas 2-4 ft.

A cold front then approaches the area Thursday and moves southward through the local waters into Thursday night. South to southwest winds increase to up to 15-20 kts by late Thursday afternoon. Winds then veer north to northeasterly and increase to 20-25 kts north of the Cape as the front moves through. While the wind surge will be fairly brief, with flow then becoming onshore around 10-15 kts into Saturday, seas build rapidly from 2-4ft through Thursday afternoon to 6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream Friday. Conditions look to improve by late Saturday afternoon. However, scattered showers Thursday will continue through the weekend, with embedded storms possible.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 139 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Conditions remain generally favorable for fog formation this morning, but models are not as enthusiastic as mornings prior. For now, confidence remains low, keeping VIS near to just above MVFR limits. AMDs may be needed throughout the morning as the potential evolution becomes more clear and confidence begins to increase. Otherwise, light and variable winds develop out of the southeast after sunrise, turning east this afternoon as the sea breeze passes. Mostly dry with no precip mentioned within the 06Z TAFs.

CLIMATE

Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate sites:

Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 11 Monthly March DAB 86 2023 89 1967 90 1935 92 3/28/1994* LEE 87 1974 88 2015 88 2001 92 3/26/2023* SFB 90 1974 88 1974 90 2001 94 3/20/2003 MCO 90 1918 91 1918 89 2001 97 3/30/1907 MLB 90 1964 89 1962 90 1962 93 3/28/1994 VRB 89 2022 88 1986 88 2023 93 3/31/2020* FPR 90 2022 90 1997 89 1948 93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 86 65 87 65 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 89 67 89 67 / 20 20 0 0 MLB 84 67 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 84 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 89 67 89 66 / 20 20 0 0 SFB 90 66 90 66 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 90 67 89 67 / 20 20 0 0 FPR 85 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.