textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Scattered to numerous rain bands forecast this afternoon and overnight as a disturbance moves overhead. Through Monday, widespread rainfall of 1-3 inches, with some spots reaching 5-8 inches. There is a very low chance for rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches, such as those seen the city of Okeechobee this afternoon. Where soils are already saturated, a Flood Watch is in effect for Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie, Martin, and Okeechobee Counties through Monday afternoon.

- Beach conditions remain dangerous today and Monday along Central Florida's Atlantic coast. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for 5-7 ft breakers, and there is a high risk of life- threatening rip currents. Please remain out of the ocean! Minor to moderate coastal flooding may occur at high tide mainly near and south of St Lucie Inlet.

- The combination of rough seas and fresh easterly winds continues to cause hazardous conditions for boaters, especially in the open Atlantic. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at least Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Today-Monday... A disturbance aloft in the Gulf will move over the Florida peninsula today, eventually stalling over the area late Monday and into Tuesday. Locally, this will increase moisture and promote a wet and unsettled period. As this disturbance moves over the Florida peninsula today, Central Florida will become positioned beneath a region of upper-level divergence, promoting synoptic-scale lift this afternoon and into this evening. This may also allow a diffuse surface trough to develop along the east coast of Florida this afternoon. As the axis of deepest moisture centers itself over the peninsula, moisture convergence will become enhanced, particularly along the Atlantic coast and towards Lake Okeechobee. Synoptic-scale lift will become slightly less favorable on Monday as the disturbance stalls over the area, however moisture will remain plentiful. Forecast PW values increase to 2.0-2.2" this afternoon and will generally be 1.8-2.1" on Monday.

Scatted to numerous showers and an occasional storm are forecast this afternoon and evening, with a high (70-80%) chance of rain from Orlando southward, and a medium to high (50-70%) chance of rain northward. Moderate to high rain chances then continue through the tonight and through Monday. There is a high (70-80%)chance for rain along the coast, and a medium to high (50-70%) chance for rain across the interior on Monday. A Flood Watch is in effect for Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, and Okeechobee counties through at least 3PM on Monday. This is where the greatest threat for flash flooding currently exists. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked portions of east central Florida in a Slight (Level 2 of 4) Risk and a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall today and Monday. The greatest storm hazard today and Monday will be heavy rainfall and the threat of flooding, with widespread 1-3 inches through Monday night, with some spots reaching 5-8 inches. There is a very low chance for rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches, such as those seen the city of Okeechobee this afternoon. Over the past 3 to 4 hours, rainfall amounts of 6-7 inches have fallen in Okeechobee city, with one gauge reaching 8 inches in Okeechobee city. Other storm hazards will be occasional lightning strikes and gusty winds of 40-45 mph.

Easterly winds will continue to be breezy this afternoon and Monday, with winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times, especially along the coast. Cloudy conditions and increased rain chances will keep afternoon temperatures slightly below seasonal values, ranging from the upper 70s and low 80s today and Monday.

Outside of showers and convection, a number of coastal hazards will remain present at area beaches. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues alongside large breaking waves and rough surf. Entering the water is not advised! Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a concern generally near and south of St Lucie Inlet during the afternoon high tides. If excessive rainfall occurs during high tide, flooding may be worsened due to impeded drainage into tidal waterways. Thus, a Coastal Flood Advisory will continue through Monday.

Tuesday-Saturday... Upper level low pressure across the Central US on Tuesday will move east and northeast into the Midwest by mid next week. High pressure off the eastern US coastline will move offshore and northeastward out into the western Atlantic by mid week. An upper level low pressure is forecast to form near and north of the Bahamas by late week. At the surface, a cold front will move across the central US into mid week (causing that high pressure to move offshore of the eastern US), reaching the Florida panhandle and northern Florida by early Thursday, and crossing central Florida Thursday into Friday. Locally, onshore flow is forecast to weaken through midweek before turning north to northwest by late week. Deep moisture will generally persist through Tuesday, continuing moderate rain chances. Drier air will then filter across the local area into late week, reducing the rain chances to 20% or less late week and into the weekend. Temperatures generally in the mid 80s will decrease slightly to low to mid 80s by late week.

MARINE

Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Today- Friday... (Previous Discussion) Hazardous boating conditions will persist in the Atlantic waters off of Central Florida through early this week. A strong area of high pressure over the Northeast U.S. has tightened the pressure gradient, causing fresh easterly flow across the waters. Numerous showers and a few storms are forecast later today through Monday as a disturbance moves overhead. Winds slowly begin to slacken by late Tuesday and especially Wednesday, allowing seas to gradually subside by midweek.

The Small Craft Advisory continues for all of the local Atlantic through at least Tuesday morning, with the offshore zones remaining beneath the Advisory through at least Tuesday evening. East winds 15- 25 kts through Monday, 15-20 kts on Tuesday, decreasing to around 10- 15 kts by late Wednesday afternoon. Seas 5-9 ft through Monday, 5-8 ft on Tuesday, and slowly decreasing to 5-7 ft on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 111 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Organization of convection near Lake Okeechobee is producing widespread SHRA with embedded TSRA from KVRB-KSUA inland. Persistent MVFR-IFR impacts occasionally down to LIFR in +SHRA expected in this area. There is considerable uncertainty how convection will evolve the rest of the afternoon, but general consensus is for this activity to gradually lift north and overspread most if not all the ECFL terminals. Convective impacts (MVFR-LIFR conditions are forecast to persist through much of the night. Outside of TS/SH, breezy onshore winds 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 79 72 81 / 70 70 50 40 MCO 70 79 71 83 / 80 60 40 50 MLB 73 81 73 82 / 80 80 60 60 VRB 73 82 73 84 / 80 80 60 70 LEE 69 80 70 84 / 70 50 30 40 SFB 70 80 70 83 / 80 60 40 50 ORL 70 80 71 83 / 80 60 40 50 FPR 73 81 73 83 / 80 80 60 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ058-154-159-164-247- 254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.