textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Heat Advisory issued for today from 10 AM to 8PM for heat index values up to 108F-112F degrees; Remember to practice heat safety!

- A Major Heat Wave with significant heat impacts is expected through next week. Maximum heat index values will reach near Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through the weekend and into next week; Additional Heat Advisories are likely for at least portions of east central Florida each day

- Below normal rain chances continue into early next week. Drier air aloft due to the Saharan Air Layer will support strong and gusty winds in any lightning storms each day

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry conditions over east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. The 00Z XMR skew-t sounding from last night indicates a substantial dry layer in the mid to upper levels. Additionally, analysis charts show a longwave ridge over the central and southern CONUS with 500mb heights at 594dm over the southern US. Meanwhile, high pressure (~1020mb) is over the eastern Gulf at the surface.

High pressure will build over the eastern CONUS today with 500mb heights expected to reach the maximum percentile (598dm) for this time of year. Isolated to scattered showers (30-50% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop in the afternoon and evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous showers/lightning storms. Rain chances diminish by around 8PM. Light and variable winds are forecast to turn onshore with the east coast sea breeze in the afternoon and evening at around 5-10mph today. Hi-res guidance shows MLCAPE up to 2,000-4,000 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 10-30kts, conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates, and PWATs up to 1.80- 2.20" this afternoon. The aforementioned weather parameters are favorable for isolated strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 30-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"). A hot and humid day is expected today with afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 90s. Additionally, a Heat Advisory has been issued for all of east central Florida from 10AM to 8PM for heat index values up to 108-112F degrees. Remember to take frequent breaks from the heat, drink plenty of fluids, wear light colored clothing, and shift outdoor work away from the hottest parts of the day between the hours of 10am to 4pm. Above normal (2- 4+ degrees) lows in mid 70s to near 80F degrees are forecast overnight.

The Weekend... A persistent weather pattern is expected as the mid/upper level high with 500mb heights at 598dm expected to build over the eastern CONUS and the state of Florida. The high is then expected to shift west-southwest over the southwestern US on Sunday. Below normal rain chances are forecast through the weekend with high pressure over the region, as well as a Saharan Dust layer. Isolated to scattered showers (20-40% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous showers/lightning storms with the greatest chance for showers and lightning storms generally south of Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne. High instability, low bulk shear, and sufficient PWATs suggests that there is the potential for isolated strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 30- 50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-3") on Saturday. Even drier air is expected to advect over east central Florida on Sunday with a low chance (20%) for showers and lightning storms generally north of Melbourne to Kissimmee Prairie Preserve. Hot and humid conditions will continue with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s along the coast and the mid to upper 90s inland. Additional Heat Advisories are likely with heat index values up to 108F to 112F degrees forecast. There is a widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk (north of the Treasure Coast) for east central Florida each day. An extreme HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Go to wcp.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk more information on HeatRisk.

Monday-Thursday... Below normal rain chances are forecast to continue into at least the beginning of the work week. Ensembles, LREF-clusters, and deterministic models continue to be in decent agreement that the mid/upper level ridge will shift west-southwest over the southern US as a mid/upper trough deepens over the northeastern US. However, the latest model guidance does not deepen the trough as far south as previous model runs until later in the week and LREF-clusters, as well as deterministic models begin to diverge in different scenarios on Thursday. At the surface, a frontal boundary is forecast to sag over the eastern CONUS and southern US Tuesday into Wednesday which will result in an increase in rain chances over east central Florida. The heat wave is expected to continue with significant heat impacts for east central Florida. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s are forecast with lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. A Major HeatRisk is likely for most of east central Florida with the probabilities for an Extreme Heat Risk up to 30-70% mainly north of the Treasure Coast.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated to scattered generally onshore moving showers (20-40% chance) and lightning storms are forecast in the morning and afternoon. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts greater than or equal to 34kts. Southwest winds at 5-10mph are forecast to back south-southeast in the afternoon and evening at 5-10mph. Seas up to 1-2ft are expected.

Saturday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning storms. Mostly dry weather is forecast except for on Saturday when isolated to widely scattered showers (20-30% chance) and lightning storms are forecast mainly south of Melbourne. An isolated strong storm capable of wind gusts greater than or equal to 34kts cannot be ruled out. South-southwest winds are expected to back south-southeast, as well as onshore at 5- 10mph along the coast with the east coast sea breeze each afternoon through Monday. Winds will turn west on Tuesday before backing south- southeast, as well as onshore at 5-10mph. Seas up to 1-2ft are forecast to build up to 3ft over the far offshore (20-60nm) Volusia to Brevard county waters on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Light and variable winds this morning pick up out of the E along the coast as the ECSB develops and moves inland after 17Z. VCSH possible at the coastal terminals. ECSB moves inland, with ESE winds across the interior and VCTS possible after 19Z. Added in PROB30s at all interior terminals for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA between 21-24Z. Activity diminishes after 00Z, with a return of light and variable winds.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

DAB 14-Aug 96 2010 78 2024 LEE 14-Aug 98 1991 79 2023 SFB 14-Aug 98 2013 79 2025 MCO 14-Aug 98 2007 79 2025 MLB 14-Aug 97 2010 82 2016 VRB 14-Aug 97 1993 80 1987 FPR 14-Aug 96 1929 80 1928

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 94 77 95 77 / 30 20 20 10 MCO 97 77 98 77 / 50 20 30 20 MLB 92 78 93 77 / 30 20 20 10 VRB 93 76 92 77 / 30 10 20 0 LEE 96 78 97 78 / 50 20 30 20 SFB 96 77 97 78 / 40 20 20 10 ORL 96 78 97 78 / 50 20 30 20 FPR 93 77 92 75 / 30 10 30 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.