textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

- Thunderstorm chances peak at 40-60% over the interior each afternoon and evening through Memorial Day Weekend. Storms will be capable of producing 40-50 mph wind gusts, frequent cloud-to- ground lightning strikes, and localized 3"+ rainfall tallies.

- The risk of life-threatening rip currents remains high today at all Atlantic beaches of east central Florida. Swimming in the ocean is not advised.

- Widespread Moderate HeatRisk continues through early next week as temperatures remain somewhat warmer than normal. Remain well hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C if you begin to feel unwell.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Persistence is key to the broader pattern over the Southeast U.S. this morning. Deep-layer ridging is anchored over the W Atlantic, its reservoir of above-normal H5 heights extending from the Caribbean Sea to the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the Bermuda High projects its axis westward toward the I-10 corridor. Moderate southeast flow continues in the boundary layer over the Florida Peninsula. PW values are slightly above normal.

Strong agreement within the 22/12Z ensemble suite supports a high-confidence forecast for a few more days. No significant changes to this setup are expected through at least Monday or Tuesday. The active storm track, driven by a branch of the subtropical jet, will emanate from Texas into the Appalachians. Mid-level ridging near the Turks and Caicos is expected to strengthen, with its influence maximized over the district on Monday and/or Tuesday. Locally, deep convection will be focused on the advancing, yet diffuse, Atlantic sea breeze and its eventual interaction with the Gulf breeze in the evenings.

By the middle of next week, cluster analysis reveals considerable agreement that an omega block will form over the mid-latitudes of N America. A trough over the Northeast U.S. and additional subtropical jet stream energy entering the lower Mississippi Valley should work in tandem to weaken the ridge over the state and push its surface axis toward South Florida. Ahead of the subtropical feature, moisture anomalies turn sharply positive over the state. Finally, the signal of high-altitude divergence and upward motion currently over the S Plains is likely to shift over Florida by late next week or weekend. Confidence is growing that multiple rounds of unsettled weather will occur in the last few days of May.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Sunday...

Continued warm and muggy for the weekend, with ample moisture to get a few showers and storms to flare up on the diffuse east coast sea breeze by afternoon and evening. This activity will slowly focus farther into the interior before a collision favoring the Mid-Florida Ridge (Lake/Polk) and points westward in the early evening hours. Rain coverage from 20-30% on the coast increases to 50-60% west of Orlando both days. With the atmosphere uncapped, there will be moderate instability but weak/negligible shear to work with. Garden-variety storm hazards are expected, with a few wind gusts to 40-50 mph, frequent lightning, and prolific rainfall rates for a short period of time. At the immediate coast, a few showers are possible during the overnight and morning hours.

Aside from the storm chances, our eyes will be on the thermometer as day and nighttime temps hold just above normal. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk will exist, with those warmer overnight locations along the coast and lakes having a 50-70% chance of Major HeatRisk. Seek shade or A/C if you begin to feel unwell.

A High Risk of numerous life-threatening rip currents persists at our Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the surf.

Memorial Day - Tuesday...

As the nearby ridge flexes its muscles one last time, somewhat drier air and subsidence should squelch rain and storm chances early in the week. Coastal locations look nearly rain-free, with interior rain/storm chances lessened to 20-40%. Temperatures should continue to run just above normal, especially at night on the coast due to the onshore breezes.

Wednesday - next Saturday...

As mentioned in the overview, a transition to more active weather is expected for the latter half of next week. The increasing moisture alone is enough to enhance rain and storm chances, but when you combine that with potential offshore flow and at least broad ascent due to nearby disturbances, confidence only grows. In fact, daily rain chances have trended up to 60-70% on Wed/Thu and 70-80% by next Fri/Sat. Statistical guidance shows a 20-40% chance of 2" rainfall between Thursday and Saturday, with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 3 inches. The convective nature will support locally higher amounts, which should be good for the ongoing drought as long as it doesn't come all at once. It'll take a couple more days before the full picture becomes clear, but the bottom line is that you should expect to dodge more rain and storms late next week than what we've been used to lately.

Increasing cloud cover and rainfall potential should cut into high temperatures, with those lower 90s traded in for mid-upper 80s.

MARINE

Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

High pressure remains situated over the Western Atlantic, its axis extending toward the Florida Panhandle today. This ensures continued moderate southeasterly flow over the local waters through the Memorial Day Weekend. Occasionally, fresh breezes are expected in the Gulf Stream, with some daily enhancement near the coast behind the daily sea breeze. No significant changes are expected to prevailing conditions through at least Tuesday. A few showers and lightning storms will remain possible, though coverage should be relatively low.

SE breezes 10-15 kt today, and then 12-18 kt from Sunday through early next week. Seas 3-4 ft nearshore, up to 5 ft well offshore.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

The east coast sea breeze should become active with ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA later this morning just inland from the coast and develop inland this afternoon. A late sea breeze collision is forecast to be near or over Lake county aft 22Z, farther east than previous days. TS impacts most likely at LEE so have added a TEMPO there from 23Z-03Z. Will be a closer call at KMCO/KISM/SFB where a PROB30 has been inserted into those respective TAFs. SE winds increase 7-13 kts after sunrise with occasional gusts 20-24 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 90 76 88 77 / 30 30 50 10 MCO 92 75 90 75 / 40 30 60 10 MLB 88 79 88 80 / 20 20 30 10 VRB 89 78 88 79 / 20 20 20 10 LEE 92 75 90 75 / 60 60 60 30 SFB 93 75 91 76 / 40 30 60 10 ORL 92 75 90 76 / 40 30 60 10 FPR 88 78 88 78 / 30 10 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.