textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 211 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Hot and muggy conditions continue the rest of the week and into the holiday weekend, with peak heat indices in the U90s to L-M100s each afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast each day.

- Deep moisture with a nearby frontal boundary will result in scattered to locally numerous showers and lightning storms through Thursday with potentially higher than normal rain chances continuing into the Fourth of July weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Current-Tonight...Weak frontal boundary near the area with deep moisture in place will continue to provide a focus for onshore- moving showers and lightning storms; this morning and early afternoon across the coast and greatest coverage over the interior into the afternoon and perhaps early evening. Primary storm impacts include frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 35-45 mph locally, and torrential downpours. Quick 1-2" rainfall amounts will occur with a couple storms, especially inland, with minor to nuisance flooding possible - especially locations that have received multiple rounds over the past few days. Storm motion remains slow and toward the southwest. Convection will diminish by early evening, though cannot rule out a stray shower along the coast overnight.

Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk continues with max temps in the U80s and a few L90s possible inland. Peak heat indices in the U90s to L100s. Warm & humid at night with lows in the L-U70s.

Thu-Fri...Northeast to East flow continues into Thu evening, then veers SE/S over the remainder of the period. Warming aloft with fairly stout mid-level high pressure centered to the north, but we will see occasional weak shortwave impulses traverse the area under the southern periphery of the aforementioned high. A diffuse sea breeze will be present each day pushing well inland. Rather deep, but light, onshore flow with storm steering remaining light and toward the west or north. Highest PoPs, scattered to locally numerous, generally inland & south. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a key concern in addition to lightning strikes, and locally gusty winds. Typical warm & humid summertime conditions continue with highs in the U80s to L90s, with peak heat indices 97-104F. Conditions at night remain warm and muggy.

Sat-Tue...A weak overall pressure pattern remains consistent across central FL with the Atlc ridge axis nearby. The weak surface flow remains S/SE during the day returning to S/SSW at night. Mid-level high pressure to the north initially weakens across the mid Atlc coast and adjacent western Atlc, but as it gets pushed southward, strengthens a bit across the Deep South to include north-central FL. Will see daily sea breeze formation and push inland. Fairly deep moisture continues across the area with typical SCT-NMRS diurnal convective coverage each aftn/evening, though feel NBM numbers are a bit too high. Max temps above normal in the L-M90s with peak heat indices picking back up to 100-107F each afternoon ahead of sea breezes and precip. Lows remain consistent in the 70s with conditions humid.

MARINE

Issued at 211 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Through Sun...Generally favorable boating conditions continue with high moisture across the area and onshore-moving showers and lightning storms thru Thu. NE/E winds into Thu evening will veer SE Thu overnight and will remain generally southerly (SE/S/SSW) into the weekend. Wind speeds remain below 15 kts and often below 10 kts thru the period. Seas 2-4 ft (up to 5 ft well offshore Cape north later today/tonight) become 3 ft or less Fri into the holiday weekend. Shower and storm coverage ISOLD-SCT with winds and seas locally higher invof storms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Light and variable winds this morning picking up out of the NE at 10 to 15 knots after 15Z. VCSH/VCTS chances also increase around 15Z as the ECSB develops and pushes inland. Continue to leave out PROB30/TEMPOs due to uncertainty relative to whether greater coverage will occur near the terminals. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed. Shower and storm activity diminishes after 20Z with NE winds gradually subsiding to around 5 knots through the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 77 89 77 / 30 10 30 10 MCO 90 75 91 76 / 50 0 50 0 MLB 88 78 89 78 / 40 10 20 0 VRB 89 78 90 77 / 40 10 30 10 LEE 90 75 92 77 / 50 0 40 10 SFB 91 75 92 76 / 40 10 50 10 ORL 90 76 91 77 / 50 0 50 10 FPR 89 76 89 76 / 40 10 40 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.