textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Building moisture will lead to increasing shower and storm chances each day. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the afternoons and evenings.

- Increasing humidity will lead to heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees or higher this weekend into next week; Moderate to Major HeatRisk is likely.

- At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents continues. Always swim near a lifeguard!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Today-Tonight...Mid-level and surface high pressure drift offshore from the Southeast US today. Locally, PWATs increase from 1.8 to 2". Already, more showers than previous mornings are present on KMLB radar prior to sunrise. Expect this activity to continue along the coast through the morning hours, especially along the Treasure Coast. A few storms will be possible. Then, convection moves inland this afternoon with the sea breeze, with a collision west of Orlando. PoPs 20-50% today will be highest over the interior and taper off through the day along the coast. Warm mid- level temperatures will not favor strong storms. But, steep low- level lapse rates and waterlogged updrafts could lead to a few strong wind gusts. Slow moving storms amid nearly non-existent steering flow will also lead to a locally heavy rainfall threat, though drought still lingers across east central Florida. Highs today reach the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Winds increase to 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze.

Lingering convection, driven by the sea breeze collision and outflow boundaries, is expected this evening west of Orlando. Expect PoPs to decrease through the evening hours, with drier conditions prevailing by midnight. Some additional isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the Atlantic waters, early in the morning. But, CAMs suggest this activity will remain largely offshore by daybreak. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s.

Thursday-Friday...A weak surface ridge axis from the western Atlantic drifts southward late week. Prevailing onshore flow comes to an end Thursday, with light offshore flow developing on Friday. However, will see a SE sea breeze develop at the coast in the afternoons, regardless, increasing winds to 10-15 mph behind it. Increased moisture and a progressively eastern sea breeze collision will see building shower and storm chances through the period. PoPs up to 50% will still remain generally west of I-95 Thursday, as morning showers stay mostly offshore. Then, PoPs 40-60% area-wide are expected for Friday. The threat for strong storms will remain low, though a few cannot be ruled out. Steering flow will remain weak overall, so locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat. Any areas that see multiple days of heavy rainfall over the same locations could develop a minor flooding threat.

Temperatures increase late week, with highs reaching the lower to mid-90s. Humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100+ by Friday. Muggy overnight conditions, with lows in the 70s will provide little relief. HeatRisk increases for Friday, with some areas, especially north and west of I-4, seeing a Major Heat Risk.

Saturday-Wednesday...Surface ridging over the western Atlantic strengthens and drifts westward through the period. This will lead to strengthening offshore flow into early next week. As a result, the east coast sea breeze will face increasing opposition to inland movement and may even be pinned to the coast in the afternoons next week. This flow regime favors higher coverage of showers and storms over the eastern half of the peninsula, which is reflected in the 60-70% PoPs for most days. Amble PWATs for convection (1.8-2+") linger over the area, as well. Southwesterly flow will also support high temperatures in the lower to mid-90s area-wide. Combined with humid conditions, heat indices 100-105+ are forecast in the afternoon. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will be a concern this weekend and into next week, with little relief from overnight temperatures. This is something to keep in mind if you have outdoor plans this weekend, as staying cool and adequately hydrated will become even more important to avoiding heat-related illness.

MARINE

Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Overnight/early morning showers and a storm or two will continue through sunrise this morning. Favorable boating conditions prevail through the weekend, as high pressure continues over the local waters. Onshore winds continue through Thursday, increasing to 10-15 kts at the coast behind the sea breeze. Then, generally light offshore flow will prevail late week and into the weekend, though will still see a SE sea breeze develop near the coast in the afternoons. Winds remain 15 kts or less through the period. Offshore flow will increase the amount of offshore-moving showers and storms in the afternoons and evenings Friday onward. A few storms could be strong. Seas 2-3 ft, locally higher in and around storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

ISO-SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA developing ahead of a diffuse east coast sea breeze. Mostly clear conditions at KMLB-KSUA, but SHRA/TSRA persist INVOF of KTIX-KDAB. Current convection is nearly stationary, and could cause prolonged impacts should a cell develop over any of the inland terminals. Activity is forecast to gradually diminish westward through the rest of the afternoon- evening as the sea breeze pushes inland, with mostly clear conditions behind the boundary. The sea breezes are forecast to collide west of the ECFL terminals late in the evening, but close enough to KISM-KLEE to warrant VC mention. Some debris -SHRA could blow back east, but deep convection not expected. Chances for coastal SHRA return overnight into Thursday morning. Morning cu- field could become MVFR at times before lifting/mixing in the late morning to afternoon. ISO-SCT sea breeze driven afternoon-evening TSRA forecast again Thursday, with a collision closer to the ECFL inland terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 89 74 91 / 10 20 10 40 MCO 73 91 75 93 / 20 50 20 60 MLB 76 88 77 90 / 10 20 20 50 VRB 74 89 75 90 / 0 20 20 50 LEE 75 92 76 93 / 30 50 30 40 SFB 73 92 75 94 / 10 50 20 60 ORL 74 91 75 93 / 20 50 20 60 FPR 73 88 74 89 / 10 20 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.