textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Flood Watch remains in effect through 10 PM for coastal counties. The highest potential for flooding exists along the Treasure Coast where 2 to 4 inches of rain is likely, with locally higher amounts of 6".

- Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will continue through late evening inland and into early Thursday morning along the coast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect. Breezy conditions are forecast through late week.

- Dangerous beach and boating conditions persist, including the risk for numerous life-threatening rip currents and rough surf. Minor beach erosion during times of high tide is possible.

- Drier conditions gradually return Friday into the weekend as a warming trend begins

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Now-Tonight...Early this afternoon, a surface trough is sitting over the east central Florida coast. This feature, along with saturated easterly flow, is supporting scattered onshore-moving showers. A few lightning strikes have also been observed in the last hour or two, just offshore over the Atlantic waters. Forecast soundings and hi- res model guidance suggest deeper moisture convergence this afternoon, generally from southern Brevard and central Osceola counties southward. Run-to-run signals of some locally higher rainfall totals of 2-4" (locally 6") continue, especially focused on the Treasure Coast. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall exists in these areas, highlighting the coast from Melbourne southward. Instances of localized flooding are possible, especially in low- lying areas and in locations that have received heavy rain over the last 48+ hours. While the signal for heavier rainfall is lower to the north, have decided to let the Flood Watch continue for all coastal counties through 10 PM (including Volusia).

In addition to the rain is the strong wind. More sites are beginning to gust 35+ mph this afternoon, especially over the northern two- thirds of the area, as the pressure gradient tightens. 925mb winds are forecast to strengthen up to 35-40 kt through the evening, increasing the potential for 35-45 mph gusts. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for most of the area, with Okeechobee County joining in the advisory at 4 PM. For now, the advisory is set to expire by 5 AM Thursday, but this conditions will be evaluated for any updates through the evening.

Beach conditions will remain dangerous this afternoon into tonight. Buoy 41114 has been reporting 8 to 9-foot seas with a long period of 11 seconds. This makes for a rough and dangerous surf zone, which is why the High Surf Advisory and High Risk of Rip Currents continues into Thursday.

Thursday-Friday...The H5 trough axis slides east on Thursday, gradually lessening overall support for shower activity. That said, Thursday still looks soggy with scattered showers around through mid afternoon. CAMs suggest 1-2" of additional rainfall is possible in the more organized showers (cannot rule out an isolated storm). Later in the day and into the evening, drier air starts to work south and cut into shower development (especially after sunset). While not quite as windy, coupled onshore winds will support gusts of 30-35 mph on Thursday, especially at the immediate coast. Conditions at the beaches will remain dangerous, so staying out of the water is highly encouraged!

Drier air helps to clear skies out a bit on Friday, which allows the upcoming warming trend to commence. Comfortably mild highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are forecast as a very low chance for a shower remains from Sebastian south to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, dry weather starts to take over with high pressure building over the eastern U.S. Surf conditions will still remain dangerous with a high risk of rip currents lingering at area beaches.

Saturday-Wednesday...Increasingly dry and warm conditions take over this weekend, and especially next week, as an H5 ridge axis builds overhead. For perspective, normal high temperatures for mid-April are generally in the low 80s. Saturday's forecast highs place us slightly below normal before the low 80s return everywhere Sunday and Monday. Interior locations warm up the most through the middle of next week, reaching the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday. Onshore flow will continue with surface high pressure situated well north and east of us. The pressure gradient weakens from Tuesday onward, so occasional gusts around 20 mph from the sea breeze will about do it for peak winds each afternoon. Don't be caught off guard by a return to more inviting weather at the beaches! Wave heights begin to decrease late this weekend into the first part of next week, but a lingering long period swell will prolong the moderate to high risk for rip currents.

MARINE

Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Dangerous marine conditions are ongoing this afternoon with Buoys 41114 and 41009 reporting wave heights of 9 feet and 14 feet, respectively. A tight pressure gradient is supporting east-northeast winds of 25+ knots with frequent gusts near or just below gale force. A Gale Warning remains in place for all legs of the local Atlantic until 2 AM Thursday, followed by a Small Craft Advisory thereafter. Rough seas will persist Thursday as winds slacken only slightly, sustained 20-27 kt and gusting up to 30 kt at times. Seas 9-14 ft.

From Friday onward, fresh to strong onshore breezes will continue as the high anchors over the Appalachians. This will prolong poor to hazardous boating conditions through much of the weekend. Seas decrease to 6-9 ft Friday afternoon, remaining 5-8 ft through Sunday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VCSH and SHRA will continue through the overnight hours, with reducing coverage anticipated over the next few hours across east central Florida. Windy and gusty ENE winds persist at all terminals, with the strongest gusts focused along the coast. MVFR CIGs are forecast at all terminals through the overnight hours, though periods of VFR CIGs may be possible at times. VCSH persists into Thursday areawide. It is too early to determine exact locations where SHRA will be possible, and therefore too early to determine where TEMPOs will be needed. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed. Showers look to diminish into tomorrow night areawide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 65 75 64 78 / 50 50 10 10 MCO 66 74 64 78 / 50 60 10 10 MLB 67 76 67 78 / 60 70 30 10 VRB 66 77 66 78 / 70 60 30 20 LEE 64 77 61 81 / 30 50 10 0 SFB 64 77 63 80 / 50 60 10 10 ORL 65 76 63 80 / 50 60 10 10 FPR 66 77 65 78 / 70 60 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-141-154-159- 164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ041-141-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ044>046-053-058- 144.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572- 575.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.