textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of east central Florida through 7 PM for peak heat indices up to 110F.

- There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) of severe weather this afternoon from Osceola to northern Brevard and areas northward. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 60 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours will be possible with the strongest storms.

- Near-normal rain and storm chances continue into early next week, with the potential arrival of more Saharan dust mid-week limiting rain and storm chances from Tuesday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Through Tonight...Deep layer high pressure remains overhead across the Florida peninsula this afternoon, with shower and storm activity already firing up along the west coast sea breeze. The east coast sea breeze has developed and is actively pushing inland, with an eventual sea breeze collision across the central peninsula anticipated to lead to the highest coverage today. CAM guidance continues to favor the greatest coverage near and north of the I-4 corridor, but isolated to scattered activity will continue to be possible across most of east central Florida as the sea breeze moves inland. SPC has added northern portions of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe storms this afternoon. Plentiful surface instability via daytime heating and steep low-level lapse rates will support storm development, with frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 60 mph, and heavy downpours all possible with the strongest activity. Small hail cannot be ruled out given 500mb temperatures of -8C to -7C overhead. Anticipate shower and storm activity diminishing by midnight, with mostly dry conditions then prevailing through the overnight hours along with light southwesterly winds.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect across all of east central Florida through 7 PM for peak heat indices of 105-110F. Afternoon highs remain on track to reach the mid 90s, with some spots across the north forecast to reach the upper 90s. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the 70s, with conditions remaining muggy areawide.

Sunday-Monday...Mid-level and surface high pressure remains in place across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of this weekend and into Monday, with the ridge axis forecast to generally stay draped across central Florida. Southwesterly flow will continue to advect moisture towards east central Florida, with PWATs forecast to range between 1.7-2" areawide. The west coast sea breeze will develop and quickly move inland, while the east coast sea breeze will struggle to develop and, if it does manage to develop, remain pinned closer to the east coast. As the west coast sea breeze pushes eastward, shower and storm coverage is forecast to increase along and ahead of it, with coverage increasing as the sea breeze collision occurs across east central Florida (PoPs 30-50%). This pattern is forecast to occur both Sunday and Monday afternoons, with activity pushing offshore across the local Atlantic waters into the late evening and overnight hours. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 55 mph, and heavy downpours.

Afternoon temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid 90s both Sunday and Monday afternoons, which is still above normal but not quite as warm as the last few days. Peak heat indices are forecast to still exceed 100F, but there is less confidence in reaching Heat Advisory criteria. The guidance will be monitored closely. Preventative actions to avoid heat illness should continue to be taken by residents and visitors spending extended periods of time outdoors.

Tuesday-Friday...Mid-level troughing will be draped across the southeastern US into the middle of next week, providing mid-level support for a stalling boundary just north of the Florida peninsula. The surface high will weaken across the Florida peninsula, with the ridge axis shifting southward. While this set- up would typically lead to increasing moisture across the local area, there is guidance suggesting another wave of Saharan dust drifting towards the Florida peninsula, which would help to limit shower and storm development through mid to late next week. The GFS has keyed in on this drier solution, causing NBM PoPs to trend downward (20-40%). The Euro, however, continues to favor a wetter solution across the Florida peninsula. Would not be surprised to see some fluctuations in PoPs through the extended period over the next few days as the guidance continues to key in on how the pattern will evolve. For now, have stuck with NBM guidance as a good middle road, with 20-40% chances Tuesday and Friday and 20% chances Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through next week with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue through this weekend and into next week as broad high pressure remains in place across the local Atlantic waters. South to southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots during the overnight and morning hours will become more southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Seas are forecast to remain between 1 to 3 feet through the period.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible at times across the local Atlantic waters through the forecast period. The best rain and storm chances are forecast on Sunday and Monday, primarily across the nearshore waters as activity moves offshore into the late evening and overnight hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. The east coast sea breeze has formed this afternoon and is beginning to push inland. Light southerly winds, becoming variable at times, will turn SSE-SE behind the sea breeze and increase to around 10 KT. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible near the coastal terminals as the sea breeze moves inland early this afternoon. Additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible across the interior as the sea breeze moves inland, with the highest potential for storms after 20Z across the interior. Some model guidance is suggesting some activity may push back towards the coast, mainly from MLB northward into early evening. Confidence in timing remains somewhat low, but have maintained TEMPOs for inland terminals for MVFR conditions starting at 22Z. Any lingering activity should dissipate or move out of the area by 04Z with dry conditions remaining through the overnight hours. Winds will become light and variable once again overnight before becoming S-SW at 5-10 KT by mid morning Sunday, with SSE-SE winds along the coast by late morning/early afternoon with the formation of the sea breeze. Scattered showers and storms once again Sunday, although it looks to have an earlier start. Have included VCTS starting at 17Z for MCO on Sunday to show this trend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 93 76 93 / 20 50 20 50 MCO 76 96 77 97 / 30 40 20 30 MLB 76 93 77 93 / 20 30 20 30 VRB 75 94 76 95 / 20 30 20 20 LEE 77 93 78 94 / 40 50 20 30 SFB 76 95 77 95 / 30 40 20 30 ORL 77 95 77 95 / 30 40 20 30 FPR 75 93 75 95 / 20 30 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.