textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms this afternoon and evening with the potential for one or two storms capable of frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall; a brief tornado cannot be ruled out (< 2% chance)

- A similar forecast is expected Tuesday before the arrival of more Saharan dust which will limit rain and storm chances mid to late week

- Hot and humid July temperatures will lead to afternoon heat indices between 102-107F each day. Make sure to practice heat safety!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Currently-Tonight... Current radar imagery shows a line of scattered showers and lightning storms developing to the west of Lake and Volusia counties moving east towards east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations shows mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Analysis charts show high pressure extended over southern Florida with a major shortwave trough over the Midsouth/Southeastern US. Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat index values are generally between 98-107F degrees.

Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon as collisions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from previous storms. This morning's 15Z XMR sounding shows MLCAPE at 1,091 J/kg, MUCAPE at 3,630 J/kg, a PWAT of 1.98", 0-6km shear at 10kts, conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates, and a 500mb temperature of -8C. Thus, a Marginal Risk for severe storms exists for all of east central Florida. The main hazards are frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% chance), and heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 30-60 minutes with a 1 in 10 chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 3" up to 4-5" with the potential of minor flooding of roadways and low lying areas. Additionally, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out (<2 % chance). Additionally, local analysis shows plenty of instability with CAPE up to 5,000 J/kg, LI up to -9, and no cap. The greatest potential for severe storms is between until 9PM this evening beginning from northwestern east central Florida to southeastern east central Florida into this evening. Rain chances diminish by around 9PM/10PM as storms push offshore of the Treasure Coast. Lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Tuesday-Wednesday... A similar forecast is expected on Tuesday with a shortwave trough over the southern US. However, there are slightly lower precipitation chances between 40-60%. Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous storms. Guidance indicates MLCAPE between 1,500-3,200 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 20-30kts enhanced along the local sea breeze, and conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates, and 3KM EHI up to 1-3.5 along the coast. There is the potential for a couple to a few strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-55mph (< 5% chance of a storm capable of damaging wind gusts up to 60mph), and heavy rainfall (1-2"+ with a < 5% chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 3-4.").

Drier weather is forecast on Wednesday as another Saharan dust layer begins to arrive across east central Florida. Isolated to scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening hours as collisions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from previous storms. The greatest chance for showers and lightning storms is across Volusia and northern Brevard counties with offshore moving showers and lightning storms. The potential exists for a strong storm or two capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast with heat index values between 100-107F degrees. Lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Thursday-Sunday (modified previous discussion)... The surface high will remain near to south of the area into late week and next weekend with moisture gradually increasing once again and the SAL diminishing. This will lead to a return of more normal coverage of showers and storms each afternoon and evening, with PoPs around 20-40%. Above normal heat will linger with highs in the mid 90s for much of the area and heat index values nearing or just below Heat Advisory thresholds. A Major HeatRisk with areas of Extreme HeatRisk Friday and through the weekend. This level of heat affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Currently-Friday (modified previous discussion)... The high pressure over the western Atlantic will generally remain near to south of the waters through the work week, with offshore winds out of the W/SW during the overnight and morning hours, switching the the S/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. Wind speeds will largely remain below 15 knots with seas 1-3 feet. Main hazard to boaters will be strong to marginally severe offshore moving storms today and tomorrow during the afternoon/evening. Scattered showers and storms pushing off the coast are forecast today and Tuesday (rain chances up to 50- 60%), with coverage of this activity decreasing through midweek. Any storms that push offshore will be capable of producing strong wind gusts near or in excess of 34 knots and frequent lightning strikes.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 749 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Scattered storms ongoing from VRB southward with some lingering showers from MCO to TIX northward. Activity is forecast to dissipate or move out of the area by around 02Z, then mostly dry conditions overnight. E-SE winds 5-10 KT will become light and variable overnight before becoming SW-SSW and increasing to around 5 KT once again by mid morning Tuesday. The east coast sea breeze will form in the afternoon, turning the winds E-SE and increasing the winds to around 10 KT behind the sea breeze. Another active day is forecast for Tuesday, with some uncertainty remaining on placement and timing of the storms. Have added VCTS for everyone for Tuesday afternoon, with interior sites starting 17/18Z, DAB- MLB 18/20Z, and VRB-SUA 20-21Z. Due to the uncertainty, did not include any TEMPOS at this time, but TEMPOs may be added in later packages if confidence improves. VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 92 74 93 / 10 60 20 50 MCO 75 95 76 96 / 10 60 20 20 MLB 76 93 76 93 / 50 60 30 30 VRB 75 95 75 94 / 60 40 30 20 LEE 77 92 76 94 / 10 60 20 20 SFB 76 94 76 95 / 10 60 20 30 ORL 76 93 76 94 / 10 60 20 20 FPR 75 94 74 94 / 60 40 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.