textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 101 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Patchy fog and sea fog are forecast along the northern Volusia coast and adjacent Atlantic waters this evening, with fog potentially spreading inland across and northwest of I-4 overnight.

- Poor boating conditions offshore and a High Risk of rip currents at area beaches will persist through late week.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop over the Atlantic and push inland most afternoons through early next week. There is a low (20% or less) chance of lightning storms Thursday onward.

- Temperatures will remain well above normal over the next several days, with max temps reaching as high as the mid to upper 80s across the interior. These will be near record values for inland sites this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Tonight-Friday...Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic will remain north of Florida, maintaining a moderate east-southeast breeze across the area through late week. This onshore flow combined with sufficient low level moisture will continue to develop isolated showers across the coastal waters that will be able to push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast late tonight and Thursday morning. A diffuse east coast sea breeze will then form and push inland from late morning through the afternoon, leading to the development of isolated to scattered showers across east central Florida, with greatest coverage across the interior. Colder temps aloft and increasing instability (up to 500-1000 J/kg) may also allow a few afternoon lightning storms to form across inland areas. A similar pattern is then expected into Friday. Rain chances will range from 20 percent along the coast each day, and increase from 30 percent across the interior tomorrow and 30-40 percent on Friday. Temps will remain several degrees above normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Patchy fog may develop near the Volusia County coast this evening and spread inland along and northwest of the I-4 corridor during the overnight and early Thursday morning hours. However, HREF probabilities for dense fog are a little lower for tonight then they were for last night. Still, localized visibilities of a half mile or less will be possible.

Saturday-Tuesday...Overall pattern changes little into this weekend and early next week, with high pressure across the west Atlantic maintaining an onshore flow through the period. This will continue isolated to scattered showers across the area, with greatest chance for rain across the area on Saturday (up to 40-50 percent) as models show an increase in moisture (PW values rising to 1.4-1.6") during this time. Otherwise, rain chances with this latest forecast lower to 20 percent or less Sunday through Tuesday. A few storms will continue to be possible, mainly into Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain well above normal, with highs reaching near record values across the interior each afternoon (mainly for Leesburg and Sanford), as highs rise to the mid to upper 80s. Along the coast, the onshore breeze will keep highs in the low 80s. Mild overnight lows will continue in the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 101 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

A persistent moderate to at times fresh east-southeast flow will continue across the coastal waters over the next several days as ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic remains near to north of the area. Wind speeds will mostly be 10-15 knots, but over the next few nights will increase to 15-20 knots offshore. Poor boating conditions will linger offshore through at least Friday night as seas up to 6 feet continue. Otherwise, seas will range from 3-5 feet closer to the coast through late week and across the entire waters through the weekend into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers will persist across the waters over the next several days, with a few lightning storms also possible.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 101 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Mainly VFR at all ECFL terminals today, then potential for another round of fog/stratus along and north of I-4 from 07Z-15Z. Onshore (ENE- ESE) flow under high pressure centered north of the area is once again enhanced by the east coast sea breeze this afternoon, increasing winds generally to 8-13 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts, up to 15 kts with more frequent gusts at KMLB-KSUA. Some brief SHRA possible from KMLB-KSUA inland, but chances not even high enough for VCSH at this point. CIGs at these terminals periodically MVFR. Held off TEMPOs with this package but can't rule out an AMD at some point. Winds ease after 00Z.

Late tonight into Thursday morning, fog/stratus is again expected to develop in NOFL, but how far it spills into ECFL is uncertain. At the inland/northern terminals, NBM/LAV generally trend towards VFR- MVFR, while HREF is a little more pessimistic and calling for IFR/LIFR. Tempted to go with a persistence forecast given a very similar setup to this morning, but chances for impacts are low enough to give pause, so shipped the 18Z package with prevailing MVFR, and will continue to assess. Any fog/stratus manages to develop should dissipate by around 15Z. Space/Treasure coast terminals expected to remain VFR thanks to steady onshore flow overnight. Sea breeze enhances onshore flow again Thursday, and increasing moisture will support higher SHRA/TSRA chances in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 80 64 81 / 10 20 10 20 MCO 65 84 67 85 / 10 30 10 30 MLB 66 79 67 81 / 10 20 20 20 VRB 66 80 67 81 / 10 20 20 20 LEE 64 85 65 86 / 10 30 10 40 SFB 64 84 65 85 / 10 30 10 30 ORL 65 84 67 85 / 10 30 10 30 FPR 66 81 65 81 / 20 20 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.