textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- The typical Florida summertime pattern will persist locally through this weekend and into next week with daily afternoon showers and storms forecast across east central Florida.

- Storm hazards today will include frequent to excessive lightning, strong wind gusts of 45-55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3". There is a 5% chance for thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph along the coast from the Cape northward.

- Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Current-Tonight... Satellite imagery shows a weak mid-level low along the northeast FL/southeast GA boarder this afternoon. Associated mid- level boundaries wrap the southern side of the low stretching across portions of northeast and central Florida. Despite some intrusion of dry air aloft, cloud cover and PWATs 1.9-2.0" suggest enough moisture to support at least scattered coverage of afternoon and evening storms. Environmental parameters remain similar to yesterday with cold 500mb temperatures around -7.5C and DCAPE values 800-1,200 J/Kg. Strong storms that develop again today will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts 45-55 mph, and small hail. The strongest storms should occur along boundary collisions, particularly collisions with the east coast sea breeze, and SPC has highlighted a Marginal risk for severe storms along the coast from the Cape northward. Here, there is a 5% chance for downburst wind gusts to 60 mph. Strong storms will also be capable of heavy downpours, and quick rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches may result in minor or nuisance flooding. Showers and storms may linger a little bit into the evening across a few locations with dry conditions then forecast overnight.

Saturday-Sunday... Pulses of shortwave energy continue to pass overhead this weekend as a mid-level trough slowly slides across the eastern U.S. A surface front remains stationary across the southeast while a surface ridge axis holds near or across south Florida. This will keep light offshore flow in place, predominantly out of the southwest. A drier airmass will favor slightly below normal rain chances for much of east central Florida on Saturday (~20-40%). Major global models then become split on moisture and rain chances on Sunday. Have shown a slight upward trend in Sunday's rain chances with this forecast package, suggesting more seasonal coverage of scattered afternoon showers and storms (40-60%). However, slightly lower forecast confidence exists due to wide model discrepancy. Cold temperatures aloft (~ -8C @ 500mb), high DCAPE (900+ J/kg), and efficient surface heating should allow for a few strong storms to develop each afternoon, and storms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty downburst winds of 40-55 mph, and small hail. Heavy downpours within slow moving storms may result in localized nuisance flooding. Outside of showers and storms, near to slightly above seasonal temperatures are forecast. Highs mostly in the low 90s locally reach the mid 90s across portions of the interior. Trends continue to hold below Heat Advisory criteria with peak heat index values forecast to range 100-106F.

Monday-Thursday... Troughing across the eastern U.S. gradually broadens as low pressure weakens and lifts northeast through portions of Canada. Surface ridging becomes reestablished across central Florida, and a loose pressure gradient will maintain light southerly winds, often becoming variable early each day. Winds shift onshore around 10 mph as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Below seasonal rain chances are forecast early in the week before a more typical pattern of scattered afternoon and evening storms returns generally from Wednesday onward (~40-60%). Temperatures show little change, persisting in the low to mid 90s each afternoon with peak heat index values between 102-107F.

MARINE

Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A surface ridge axis remains south of the local waters through the weekend. This will maintain a period of light offshore flow, shifting south to southeast in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. The ridge axis lifts northward on Monday, settling across the central Florida peninsula into late week. Light southerly flow becomes established across the waters from Monday onward, still turning onshore daily with the sea breeze. Seas mostly hold around 2 ft, briefly building to 3 ft offshore this weekend. Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms area forecast in the afternoons and evenings, and stronger storms will be capable of wind gusts to 34 kts or greater, frequent cloud to water lightning, and locally higher seas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 824 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

TS continue INVOF KTIX to KDAB, but should push offshore or dissipate by 03Z at the latest. Storm outflow may cause wind shifts and gusts at KMLB-KSUA through around 02Z. Some light debris SHRA ongoing inland that may linger to around 02Z, but shouldn't cause categorical impacts. After all this clears up, quiet VFR conditions will prevail overnight, with light SW-SSW winds. Winds pick up to 5-10 kts in the late morning, shifting S-SE behind the sea breeze in the afternoon as it moves inland. ISO to maybe SCT TS/SH forecast in the afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Enough confidence for TS impacts at KMCO/I-4 terminals to upgrade PROB30s to TEMPOs. Kept PROB30s at KMLB-KTIX where majority of TS are forecast to develop west of the terminals, though made some timing adjustments based on latest trends and guidance. Overall TS coverage forecast to be ISO-SCT, but could become NUM along the sea breeze collision. +TSRA capable of gusts +35 kts possible, and added gusts to all TEMPOs/PROB30s. Weak SWRLY steering flow will gradually usher TS/SH NERLY and offshore, but some cells may become slow/erratic due to chaotic boundary interactions. Surface winds SWRLY 5-10 kts may become VRB at times, shifting SE-E behind a delayed/slowed ECSB in the late afternoon and evening. TS/SH push offshore dissipate after 00Z, but may linger as late as 03Z. Quiet VFR overnight after convection clears. Near identical forecast for Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 94 76 92 / 20 30 20 40 MCO 76 95 76 93 / 20 20 20 60 MLB 77 94 77 93 / 30 40 30 60 VRB 75 93 75 93 / 30 40 30 50 LEE 76 93 76 91 / 20 30 30 40 SFB 76 94 76 92 / 20 20 20 50 ORL 77 95 77 93 / 20 30 20 60 FPR 76 93 75 93 / 30 40 30 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.