textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 656 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Breezy and much colder air settles over Central Florida tonight. All locations, except the immediate Treasure Coast, will wake up to wind chills in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

- At our beaches, a strong southward-flowing longshore current develops late tonight and Friday. Hazardous boating conditions also persist through Friday. - Turning warmer this weekend. Low to medium rain chances anticipated early next week as moisture increases and a front approaches the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 656 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

First off, Happy Thanksgiving from all of us here at NWS MLB.

Other than a few sprinkles near PSL & Stuart, it's dry across the entire district this evening. Cool/dry air is on the move southward, chasing a cold front offshore of SoFlo. Persistent (and increasing) NNW winds overnight will drive a portion of the cold, continental air mass residing over much of the U.S. down the peninsula. Existing forecast looks largely on target with some tweaks to initialize better against current obs.

By morning, we expect most spots to wake up in the 40s, except the barrier islands south of the Cape & the immediate Treasure Coast where low/mid 50s will be more common. Over the interior and extending to the Volusia Coast, wind chills from the mid 30s to low 40s are forecast. Early morning shoppers will need to grab their jackets! This is certainly more of an advective cold event as the lingering cirrostratus deck and continued mixing will limit radiational effects.

Later Friday, brilliant Florida sunshine recovers us only into the low/mid 60s near and north of I-4, upper 60s around Melbourne, to near 70 on the Treasure Coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Current-Tonight...A strong cold front continues to move southward across the forecast area this afternoon. Some associated morning patchy fog and very low stratus has cleared out, with gradual improvements to overall cloud ceilings through the remainder of the afternoon as drier air slowly pushes southward behind the boundary. Brief light to moderate shower activity may impact locations, south of Orlando, as the boundary moves through. An isolated lightning storm is also possible. Clouds and cooler air will limit max temps to near 70F north of I-4 with 70s further southward and around 80F near Lake Okee. The pressure gradient has tightened a bit with northerly winds increasing to 10-15 mph (and a few higher gusts) making it feel just a bit cooler. Cloud- cover will continue to diminish into this evening (north --> south).

Cooler and drier tonight, with lows falling into the 40s across most of the area. Coldest spots N/W of I-4 in the L40s. Warmest locations will be along the Treasure Coast with L-M50s and perhaps U50s for barrier islands. Northerly winds (breezy/gusty) continue at 10-15 mph areawide overnight. Lowest wind chill (apparent temperature) readings overnight into Fri morning will realize U30s north/west of I-4 with near 40F to L40s across coastal Volusia and southward toward Lake Okee and interior (W of I-95) portions of Brevard/Indian River counties. Elsewhere M-U40s to 50s for coastal Brevard/Treasure Coast. Conditions will not be favorable for frost development due to the elevated winds.

Fri-Sat...A very chilly start to the day with MClear skies throughout the day. Fairly strong high pressure builds across the Deep South and mid Atlc states thru the period keeping the pgrad tight. Northerly winds 15-20 mph and gusty for many will make eventual maxes in the 60s feel much cooler. Dry conditions thru the period. Winds veer NE/ENE on Sat, but remain breezy/gusty. Overnight mins into Sat morning forecast in the M-U40s N/W of I-4 with near 50F to M50s for most other locations, except U50s to around 60F along the Space/Treasure coasts. Highs on Sat rebound into the L-M70s. Onshore flow Sat overnight will keep mins warmer yet, with values in the M-U50s to near 60F across much of the interior and L-M60s along the coast, perhaps U60s for barrier islands.

It should be noted that a strong southward-flowing longshore current will exist at area beaches on Fri due to gusty northerly winds. A longshore current flows parallel to the coastline and is dangerous as it can push swimmers off the sandbar and into deeper water making them more susceptible to being caught in a rip current.

Sun-Thu...Previous Modified...Quasi-zonal flow aloft diminishes as a mid-level trough sweeps across the central US towards the Mid- Atlantic late this weekend into early next week, with a few weak waves of energy forecast to move across ECFL. Towards the middle of next week, a more vigorous trough is forecast to sweep across the eastern US, with this feature extending southward towards Florida and pushing offshore. This pattern in the mid-levels will result in an evolving pattern at the surface. There remains some timing discrepancies between medium/long-range guidance, though models continue to slowly trend more in line lifting a former frontal boundary northward across the peninsula on Sun, stalling north of the area Mon/Tue, with a cold front then moving across the area early on Wed. This pattern will result in increasing moisture across the area, with increasing rain chances. Continue to stick with the NBM at 20-40% through the period across the peninsula, but could see some increases in rain chances on Tue (pre-frontal). Isolated storm development cannot be ruled out with this activity, and will continue to monitor as the forecast evolves. By Wed, the forecast calls for the passage of a cold front, with conditions forecast to dry out across ECFL mid to late week.

Temperatures through the extended are forecast to gradually warm through at least Tue, generally between the M-U70s to L80s. Slightly cooler on Wed as the front moves across the area, with highs generally in the 70s areawide. Lows in the 60s Sun and Mon nights, falling into the 50s to M60s Tue night onward.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A strong cold front continues to move southward across the local waters this afternoon. ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers (few lightning storms) will be possible thru late today. Winds continue to veer NWRLY behind it with speeds increasing to 15-20 kts with higher gusts and expecting speeds continuing to increase to 20-25 kts into tonight/Fri. Gusts to 25-30 kts will be possible. Seas will be slower to respond, but will manage 5-7 ft across the Gulf Stream by early to mid evening, building further to 5-7 ft near shore and 6-8 ft Gulf Stream overnight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect areawide into Fri evening, for much of the Gulf Stream thru Fri night, with poor conditions continuing Sat-Sat night (esp in the Gulf Stream). Seas slowly respond by subsiding to 3-5 ft Sun-Tue of next week. The pgrad finally slowly relaxes Sun into next week. An onshore wind component develops Fri night continuing into at least Mon evening, then turning more southerly (S/SW) into Tue. Moisture pools back into the area on Sun with a gradual increase in showery precip thru early next week, with ISOLD lightning storms also possible. Next possible frontal passage may be on Wed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 656 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

The cold front has cleared the terminals, with lingering MVFR CIGs at VRB-FPR-SUA lifting over the next 2-3 hours. Otherwise, VFR conds with brisk NNW breezes up to 12 KT tonight, becoming N to NNE on Friday afternoon 10-15 KT G20-25 KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast across northern portions of ECFL late this afternoon behind a strong cold front. Minimum RH values fall into the 35-40% range near and north of the I-4 corridor late this afternoon, with northerly winds picking up to around 10-12 mph with some higher gusts. On Friday, an area of high pressure develops north of the area, with drier air settling across ECFL. Minimum RH values fall to 20-35% across the interior, with northerly winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph possible. The Significant Fire Potential forecast maintains a "low" risk across the area on Friday, but if this were to increase to "moderate", Red Flag issuance may be necessary for portions of the area. This weekend and beyond, moisture is anticipated to increase, with fire weather concerns decreasing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 44 62 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 46 64 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 48 67 57 73 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 49 69 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 42 61 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 44 62 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 46 62 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 48 69 57 75 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570.