textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- A nearly stationary disturbance aloft will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area the next few days.

- A few strong storms will be possible each afternoon and early evening, with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches.

- A cool front is forecast to cross the area Thursday with lower rain chances and slight cooling late week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Rest of Today-Tuesday...A glance at a loop of GOES-East visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows an upper level low locked over the Florida peninsula, evident in the cloud motions. Deep moisture, with PWATs over 2" and upper level support have allowed for isolated to scattered showers and a few storms to develop prior to 2 PM. Expect coverage to increase over the next few hours along the sea breeze, mainly south of Cape Canaveral. Prevailing onshore flow will progress this activity inland and to the west coast later this afternoon and into this evening. PoPs decrease accordingly towards sunset. Until then, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of wind gusts to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3". A few showers and storms will be possible again overnight along the coast, as a few cells drift inland along continued onshore flow.

Similar conditions are forecast through early this week. The upper level low persists over the Florida peninsula on Monday, before moving NE and merging with an approaching upper level trough on Tuesday. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.2") will support scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms in the afternoons. Activity looks to develop along the sea breeze by early afternoon, then drift inland along the dominant east coast sea breeze into the evening hours. Isolated strong storms will remain possible, though 500 mb temperatures look to warm from near -8 C today to -6 C Tuesday. Late night/early morning showers and storms may continue to drift into coastal areas, as scattered to numerous convection persists over the Atlantic waters overnight. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and high humidity will support peak afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

Wednesday-Sunday...An upper level trough drops SE out of the Great Lakes region mid-week, moving offshore. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system off of the US east coast drifts NE over the western Atlantic. These features are forecast to stack and deepen off of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday and Friday, then meander offshore of New England into the weekend. Locally, a surface cool front attached to this low looks to drop southward into the Florida peninsula Wednesday. The front is forecast to weaken, slowing as it approaches the local area, where it lingers through the end of the work week and finally moves south of the forecast area by the weekend.

Little change to the sensible impacts Wednesday and Thursday compared to earlier in the week. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3") persists over the area, while the presence of the front maintains enough lift for numerous (60-70%) showers and storms, especially in the afternoons. Will also see chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-30%) persist along the coast during the overnight hours, as NE flow continues. Winds remain around 10 mph or less Wednesday, before a tightening pressure gradient behind the front increases winds to 10-15 mph (gusts 20-25 mph) from Melbourne northward through the day Thursday. Gusts near 30 mph are possible along the Volusia County coastline by the evening hours Thursday, with sustained winds 25-30 mph just offshore. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s continue.

As the front moves into south Florida Friday and into the weekend, drier air (PWATs below 1.5") will begin to filter into northern portions of the forecast area. Thus, PoPs diminish from north to south, becoming isolated to scattered (20-50%). Breezy NE flow continues, especially on Friday, with winds 10-15+ mph and gusts 20- 25 mph in the afternoons. Drier air and onshore flow will allow for high temperatures to drop a few degrees to the mid to upper 80s. However, the main difference will be the drier air leading to lower max heat indices.

MARINE

Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions persist into mid-week this week, as NE winds remain around 10 kts or less. However, will see scattered to numerous showers and storms persist each day, especially overnight. A few strong storms will be possible, capable of wind gusts near 40 kts and lightning strikes. Seas 1-3 ft. A cool front is forecast to move through the local waters into Thursday, increasing NE winds to 20-25 kts north of Cape Canaveral by the evening hours. Conditions look to deteriorate progressively southward into Friday, with seas building to 6-9 ft.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 734 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Lingering showers and isolated lightning storms will diminish or move out of the area by 02Z, becoming mostly dry overnight. However, isolated showers and storms may brush along the coast in the onshore flow through the overnight hours. Light and variable winds tonight will become E/NE and increase to 5-9 KT by mid-morning. Have included VCSH along the coast starting at 15Z, and have VCTS starting along the coast at 18Z and across the interior starting at 17Z. Have not included TEMPO at this time, but will likely be needed in future packages once timing becomes more confident.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 88 74 88 / 10 40 20 60 MCO 73 90 73 91 / 10 60 20 70 MLB 74 87 74 88 / 20 50 30 60 VRB 73 88 73 88 / 20 60 40 70 LEE 73 90 73 90 / 20 60 20 70 SFB 73 89 73 90 / 10 60 10 70 ORL 74 89 74 90 / 10 70 10 70 FPR 72 88 72 88 / 20 70 30 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.