textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- A wet weather pattern will persist across East Central Florida this week as onshore flow and high moisture supports above normal rain and storm chances, including during the overnights and early mornings.

- Primary storm hazards will be gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue to produce heat indices in the triple digits through the week. Be sure to take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning if spending prolonged time outdoors to avoid the development of heat-related illness.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Thru Tue...A strong mid level high pressure ridge over the mid MS Valley this afternoon will shift east across the TN Valley Tue. Weak mid level troughs on its southern flank across the northern Gulf and FL will keep our weather more unsettled. The low level ridge axis will remain north of the area and continue an onshore flow with abundant moisture (PWATs 2.0-2.2"). This will maintain the general pattern of isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms developing over the Atlantic waters in the overnights and early mornings, some of which push across the coast. Then a higher coverage of additional showers and storms develop just inland from the coast along and ahead of a quick/diffuse east coast sea breeze in the late mornings to early afternoons, pushing inland. This will also keep our chances for afternoon storms above normal at 50-70% esp over the interior. Afternoon and early evening rain chances will be much lower along the coast due to subsidence behind the sea breeze. However, broad instability due to the high moisture and disturbances aloft could kick off additional rounds of showers and storms at any point.

Weak steering flow will produce slow moving storms and allow for some erratic cell motions especially along boundary collisions. Such storms could deliver a quick 2-3" of rainfall leading to temporary flooding of urban, low-lying, or poor drainage areas. There is a very low (less than 5%) chance for one or two spots to receive 4+" of rainfall, leading to greater flooding impacts. Stronger storms and heavy showers will be capable of gusty winds 40-50 mph from water loading. Occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms.

Temperatures remain seasonably hot with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. But given the high humidity, peak afternoon heat indices will remain 100-106.

Wed-Thu...The center of the upper ridge reaches the Carolinas as the low level ridge axis begins to inch southward. This is forecast to produce a deep southerly flow over our area with even higher PWATS of 2.4-2.5". Rain chances have increased to 80% over the interior and have collaborated with WPC about adding MRGL excessive rain outlook for Wed (Level 1 of 4). The National Hurricane Center has reduced its probabilities to near 0% for redevelopment of the remnants of "Dolly". Nonetheless, its moisture is forecast to reach us Thu, keeping rain chances high and a MRGL ERO already in place.

Instability may be more muted in the very saturated atmosphere, warm mid-level temperatures and possibly considerable cloudiness (esp Wed), but gusty winds from water loading will remain possible. Storms will be capable of occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning. Max temps should be similar in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Fri-Sun...Some drier air may temporarily rotate into portions of the area and help to lower rain chances slightly. But at the surface the Bermuda high retreats farther out to to sea, causing the local pressure gradient to become very weak. So will continue to show at or above normal rain chances (50-70%). Max temperatures would tick upward into the mid 90s interior if clouds/precip back off a bit. Regardless, peak afternoon heat indices remain in the triple digits.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Generally favorable winds and seas for boating, but isolated to scattered lightning storms will remain a hazard, including during the overnights. The ridge axis of the Bermuda will generally remain north of Florida and the local Atlantic waters, continuing onshore (E-SE) flow 5-10 kts, closer to 10 kts in the afternoons from sea breeze enhancement. Low pressure systems passing well north of the area may weaken the western periphery of the high at times, especially late in the week, resulting in lighter and more variable winds. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft well offshore in the Gulf Stream midweek. Onshore flow and high moisture will continue to support a daily pattern of isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms developing over the Atlantic waters in the overnights to early mornings, then pushing onshore or developing just inland from the coast and pushing inland with the sea breeze in the late morning and afternoon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 747 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Showers and storms have diminished across much of the area, with just some lingering light rain near KLEE and isolated onshore moving showers along the Treasure Coast. Models have been hinting at stratus developing across the interior late tonight through early Tuesday morning. For now have put predominant MVFR cigs in for inland TAF sites from 9-14Z, but some of the MOS guidance has been showing patchy IFR cigs during this time.

Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms may continue to push onshore along the coast overnight through early Tuesday morning. However, greatest rain chances will exist into the late morning and afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and shifts inland. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will again develop with an earlier start, producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions through late afternoon. This activity should again diminish and shift west of the area into the evening. Have VCTS at the coast starting at 16Z and then inland at 17-18Z.

Light and variable winds forecast overnight, picking back up out of the E/NE around 7-10 knots into tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 88 76 88 / 20 50 30 80 MCO 75 91 75 92 / 20 70 30 80 MLB 77 89 77 90 / 30 60 20 70 VRB 75 89 75 89 / 40 60 40 70 LEE 75 89 75 89 / 10 70 20 80 SFB 75 90 75 91 / 20 70 20 80 ORL 76 90 76 91 / 10 70 30 80 FPR 75 89 75 89 / 30 70 40 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.