textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- Lingering showers tonight with a low chance of a few storms along the Treasure Coast through this evening.

- Cooler on Sunday with a few showers persisting along the Treasure Coast.

- Another round of hot temperatures expected by the middle of the week. Widespread low to mid 90s are forecast on Wednesday over the interior and all areas by Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

The severe weather threat has quickly diminished. We still have some showers and a few storms over the southern half of the peninsula. Storm chances (20-40%) look to be confined to the Treasure Coast this evening where some marginal instability lingers. The cold front resides north of the district as of 7 pm, but it will slip southward tonight and bring cooler air over the area for our Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level low pressure across Ontario with axis extending across the Midwest and into TX will steadily shift eastward, deepening as it shifts towards the eastern seaboard. At the surface, a cold front draped across the Deep South and the Florida panhandle will slowly drop southward across central Florida through the day and overnight hours. Current guidance shows the front reaching Lake/Volusia counties by mid afternoon and continuing to shift southward across ECFL through the day and overnight hours, pushing into South Florida before daybreak on Sunday. Locally, the pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the front as the Florida peninsula is situated between the approaching cold front to the north and the high pressure across the western Atlantic to the south. Strong and gusty SW winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph will develop by late morning and continue into the afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Brevard/Osceola northward for frequent gusts near 35 mph through 6 PM.

Temperatures will continue to be well above normal today with near record highs at MLB/VRB/FPR. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s across Lake/Volusia counties (due to the high cloud cover and rain chances), and low to mid 90s everywhere else, with mid 90s especially across the Space and Treasure Coasts. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast, which affects those sensitive to heat and/or without access to adequate hydration or cooling. In addition, deep mixing will produce lowest RH values across the south. Low RH combined with the gusty SW winds and already dry conditions has prompted a Red Flag Warning from Osceola/south Brevard to Okeechobee and Treasure coast through 7 PM this evening. Important to note that today will be a very fire sensitive day across all of EC FL but Red Flag criteria are most likely to be met across the south. Any new or existing fires will be capable of spreading rapidly. Any lightning strikes may spark brush fires that smolder for a day or two before flaring up.

Rain and storm chances return this afternoon along and ahead of the front. While CAM guidance is in agreement with a faster convective evolution, there remains some disagreement with exact timing of the convection. However, current guidance shows the convective band reaching the northern counties of the CWA by early to mid-afternoon. Convection is forecast to weaken as it moves southward across ECFL into this evening and overnight. There is a medium to high (40-70 percent) chance of showers and storms from Orlando metro area northward, and a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers and storms southward towards Okeechobee/St. Lucie counties in the afternoon and evening. Rain chances then increase to 40-70 percent area wide in the evening and overnight hours as the front continues to push southward across the local area.

The storm environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening, mainly focused along and north of I 4 but extends across Orlando metro and Brevard/Osceola counties. This is supported by forecast soundings showing an increase in moisture (PW values of 1.5-1.9"), cooler temperatures aloft (-10 to -11C at 500mb), sufficient instability (MUCAPE 900-1300 J/kg), ample upper level shear (50-65 knots), as well as an adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE around 500-800 J/kg). Stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-60 mph, hail and even a tornado or two can not be ruled out. The primary threat continues to be strong to damaging wind gusts with large hail and a Tornado or two being a secondary threat. If hail does occur, it will most likely occur in discrete individual supercells, but the shear may be too strong too allow for this. A Tornado Watch has been issued for Brevard, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Volusia counties until 6 PM. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Lake and Volusia Counties into a Slight risk (level 2/5), with a Marginal risk (level 1/5) to the south.

Sunday... The aforementioned upper level trough across the eastern US will continue to push eastward and offshore into the Atlantic through the day, eventually forming a closed low near Maine/New Brunswick/Nova Scotia. The cold front located near the southern Treasure Coast/Southern Florida line near day break will continue to shift southward through the day. Locally, the pressure gradient will slacken slightly, causing the NE winds to settle to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph possible at times. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast on Sunday, mainly across the southern sections, with highest rain chances (70 percent) focused on Martin county. Considerable clouds and cooler temps will limit the threat for strong/severe storms. Because of this, the main storm threats will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. This is supported by the GFS forecast PW values being around 2.0" across the southern CWA with drier air forecast to filter in across the north behind the front (PW values 1.2-1.5"). Temperatures will be below normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s, except low 80s across Lake county. Overnight lows will be near to slightly below normal, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s across the north, and low to mid 60s across the south.

Monday-Saturday... Ridging aloft will stay in place through the period, sliding southward into late week as an upper level low across the Midwest swings into the NE by Friday, and up into Canada by Saturday. At the surface, high pressure extending from the Gulf Coast States across the Southeast U.S will weaken into mid-week, shifting seaward into the western Atlantic. The next frontal boundary will then drop southward into the Deep South by mid/late week, pushing southward across the Florida peninsula on Friday. High pressure will then build across the Florida peninsula behind the front on Saturday. Locally, onshore flow (E/SE) will prevail through Wednesday, becoming gusty each afternoon behind the east coast sea breeze. Winds will then turn westerly on Thursday ahead of the front, north/northeast on Friday behind the front, and easterly on Saturday.

Lingering moisture from the stalled front over South Florida/ Straits of Florida will keep a low (20 percent) chance of showers across Martin and St. Lucie Counties on Monday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions forecast through mid week. Rain and storm chances return Thursday as the next frontal boundary approaches the local area. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain and storms Thursday and Friday as the front moves southward across the area. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the period, with afternoon highs soaring into the low to mid 90s by mid week.

MARINE

Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today-Wednesday... Deteriorating boating conditions today as a cold front approaches and pushes southward across the area through the day into Sunday. Southwest winds will generally be at 15-20 KT today over the offshore waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet , with a period of near 20 KT offshore in the afternoon ahead of the front. Winds then shift out of the north tonight into Sunday behind the front, then out of the northeast Sunday night/Monday as an elongated high pressure to the north builds over the area. Wind speeds will be 15-20 KT behind the front, decreasing to 10-15 KT Monday. Winds veer east to southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday around 10 KT as the ridge axis approaches the area. Seas build 3-5 ft today before building to 4-6 ft Sunday. Seas begin to subside slightly on Monday, with seas 3- 5 ft before decreasing further to 3-4 ft area wide Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms (chances up to 70 percent) will accompany the frontal passage this afternoon into Sunday, decreasing Sunday night, with isolated to scattered showers and storms (chances 20-30 percent) remaining possible south of Ft Pierce Inlet Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions forecast Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

MCO IMPACT: - Cold front brings a wind shift to NNW after 3Z. - Brief period of MVFR CIGs are favored late tonight.

Showers linger this evening ahead of a slow-moving cold front over N Fla. This front slides past each TAF site tonight, turning winds northerly and bringing a period of lower CIGs (MVFR). MVFR conds may linger into Sunday morning, particularly for MLB and points southward toward VRB/FPR/SUA. By Sunday afternoon, winds turn NNE with dry conds except for perhaps a few lingering showers toward FPR and SUA.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

RH values have improved such that the Red Flag Warning was discontinued this evening. On Sunday, somewhat drier air filters over the northern parts of Central Florida with afternoon RHs in the upper 30s to mid 40s north of I-4. In fact, RHs will continue to dip into the mid 30s to mid 40s over the interior through early this week. Combined with NE to E winds of 6-12 mph, sensitive fire weather conditions will remain possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 77 61 80 / 50 0 0 0 MCO 65 80 64 83 / 50 10 10 10 MLB 68 78 67 80 / 70 20 20 10 VRB 68 78 66 80 / 70 40 30 10 LEE 61 81 60 85 / 40 0 0 0 SFB 63 80 61 83 / 50 0 0 0 ORL 65 80 63 83 / 50 0 10 0 FPR 68 78 66 80 / 70 50 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.