textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Near to slightly below normal rain and storm chances today, increasing Thursday onward as moisture increases across east central Florida. Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will remain the primary storm hazards with any convective development.

- Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal this week through next week, with peak heat indices anticipated to increase into early next week.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast at all east central Florida beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Today-Tonight...Broad surface high pressure will remain in place across the Florida peninsula, with the ridge axis draped just south of east central Florida. This will support ongoing westerly flow both at the surface and aloft, with easy development of the west coast sea breeze forecast/ The west coast sea breeze will quickly push inland through this afternoon, causing winds to increase to 10 to 15 mph. The east coast sea breeze will develop but will struggle to move inland due to the westerly flow aloft. Areas south of the Cape will have the best chances of seeing a further intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze. An eventual sea breeze collision is anticipated across eastern portions of the Florida peninsula late this afternoon, which would correspond with the greatest coverage of showers and storms across east central Florida. However, the Saharan Air Layer overhead may act as a limiting factor to convective development through this afternoon, which has been reflected in the 20-40% PoPs across east central Florida. While coverage may be slightly lower than normal, this doesn't completely negate the potential for stronger storm development with this activity. Steep low-level lapse rates, SBCAPE ranging from 1500-2000 J/kg, and DCAPE 600-900 J/kg will be supportive of frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and brief heavy downpours. If storms are able to tap into the drier air aloft via the SAL, would not be surprised to see some storms producing wind gusts in excess of 55 mph, though confidence in this remains low at this time. The westerly flow aloft will push convection towards the east coast and eventually offshore, with activity diminishing overnight. Mostly dry conditions are forecast across east central Florida through the overnight hours.

Temperatures will remain persistent in the low to mid 90s across east central Florida this afternoon, with peak heat indices of 100- 105F. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or air conditioning will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors. Muggy conditions will continue into the overnight hours, with lows generally in the mid to upper 70s.

At the beaches, there is a moderate risk of rip currents. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the surf alone!

Thursday...Broad high pressure at the surface and aloft is forecast to persist into Thursday across east central Florida. Trends in guidance suggest the Saharan Air Layer diminishing across the Florida peninsula into Thursday, with PWATs forecast to once again exceed 2" nearly areawide. Rain and storm chances will increase into Thursday as a result, with PoPs ranging from 30-50%. Shower and storm development will primarily be driven by the west coast sea breeze moving across the peninsula, with a sea breeze collision across east central Florida anticipated into the afternoon hours. Guidance is hinting at greater instability areawide on Thursday, with SBCAPE values ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE values remain fairly similar to today, generally 600-900 J/kg and temperatures aloft will also be fairly unchanged. Any storm development on Thursday would likely produce frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and brief heavy downpours. Steering flow will push activity eastward towards the coast, with showers and storms moving offshore through the late evening and overnight hours. Mostly dry conditions are anticipated into Thursday night across the peninsula. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Peak heat indices are forecast to reach the 100-107F range areawide. Those planning on spending extended periods of time outdoors are encouraged to remain adequately hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building.

Friday-Tuesday...Towards the end of this week, the mid-level ridging pattern is forecast to gradually break down, with troughing developing and remaining in place across the Florida peninsula through the weekend and into next week. The surface high will respond by shifting southward, with the ridge axis forecast to stay south of central Florida through the extended period. Persistent west to southwest flow is forecast locally, resulting in moisture advection from the Gulf towards east central Florida. Rain and storm chances are forecast to increase as a direct result, with a return of scattered to numerous shower and storm coverage anticipated each afternoon from Friday through Tuesday. Convection will be primarily driven by the west coast sea breeze pushing across the peninsula, with the sea breeze collision favored across the eastern peninsula each afternoon. Activity will then push offshore, diminishing across the local Atlantic waters through the overnight hours. In addition to showers and storms, the usual Florida heat will persist, with near to slightly above normal highs forecast in the low to mid 90s. Humid conditions will support peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide, with a low chance of nearing Heat Advisory criteria in some spots through the extended period. Will continue to closely monitor trends.

MARINE

Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters. Broad surface high pressure will remain situated just south of the local waters, allowing for persistent west to southwest flow overnight and into the morning hours, with the east coast sea breeze causing winds to become more southerly during the afternoons. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 knots through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Seas remain between 1 to 3 feet.

Rain and storms will be possible each afternoon into the evening and overnight hours as activity from the peninsula pushes offshore. Coverage of showers and storms will increase Thursday onward as moisture increases across the local Atlantic waters. Storm hazards with convection will include cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, brief heavy downpours, and locally higher seas near convection.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 649 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Light SW-SSW/VRB winds early this morning pick up to 5-10 kts and shift more WRLY in the late morning to early afternoon. The east coast sea breeze development is forecast to be later/slow than normal, shifting winds onshore (E-SE) after 18Z-22Z, earlier to the south, and may be pinned north of KTIX. Lower TS chances than previous days, just 20-40% highest along the sea breeze collision after 22Z near KMCO-KTIX south to near KSUA. There is a little uncertainty in convective evolution, with some guidance showing TS more SCT INVOF the inland terminals, and possibly starting earlier than advertised. The HRRR has been fairly consistent and inline with the 06Z package timing and coverage, so no significant changes to TEMPOs at the coast and PROB30s at KMCO and other inland I-4 terminals. Most TS will dissipate or push offshore by 02Z, but some activity may linger later. There is potential SH could develop as early as 16Z Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 95 77 95 77 / 20 10 40 20 MLB 92 77 92 77 / 30 10 50 10 VRB 93 75 93 75 / 30 20 40 10 LEE 94 77 93 78 / 20 10 30 20 SFB 94 77 94 78 / 20 10 40 10 ORL 94 77 94 78 / 20 10 40 20 FPR 93 74 93 75 / 30 20 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.