textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions are forecast across east central Florida through the remainder of this week and into next week. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding, moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents, and Gale conditions will be possible this weekend and early next week.

- Isolated shower chances along the coast tonight, with increasing rain and storm chances forecast through the weekend. Minor flooding cannot be ruled out due to repeated rounds of showers and the potential for training bands of showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Tonight...High pressure over the Northeast U.S. slides gradually southward tonight, with pressure gradient tightening slightly. N/NE winds will continue across the area, with speeds around 5-10 mph. Breezy 925mb winds out of the NE will continue to moisten the lower levels. This should at least lead to the development of isolated showers over the waters that are able to push southwest and onshore into tonight. Have PoPs around 20% along the coast. Northerly flow allows min temps to drop to the low to mid 60s over the interior, with a slight onshore component to the wind along the coast should lead to lows in the mid 60s to low 70s east of I-95.

Saturday-Tuesday...Strong ridge continues to slide south across the eastern U.S. seaboard as weak low develops across the Bahamas along a stalled front. This will continue to tighten the pressure gradient across the area, leading to breezy to windy NE winds across the region. Wind speeds will reach around 15-20 mph tomorrow, with gusts to 30-35 mph, and then on Sunday will likely need a Wind Advisory for much of the area as winds continue to strengthen to 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35-40 mph. A Wind Advisory may even need to begin earlier, potentially by early evening Saturday, for Volusia/Northern Brevard coast as wind surge begins and gusts up to 35-40 mph will be possible. Windy conditions may then continue into early next week as the low lingers out across the western Atlantic and strong ridge remains to the north.

Moisture will continue to increase across the area and combine with the strong low level NE flow to produce increasing coverage of onshore moving showers this weekend. Greatest rain chances will reside along the coast (up to 70-80% Sunday), but this activity will be able to push well inland (PoPs up to 40-60%), especially across northern portions of east central Florida Saturday and across the rest of the interior Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances then gradually trend downward into early next week currently, but isolated to scattered onshore moving showers will continue to be possible. There will also be an increase in instability which may lead to isolated storms as well, but chances remain low (around 20- 30%). A Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall is outlooked along much of the coast Saturday and then continues south of the Cape, with a Slight Risk (2/4) of excessive rainfall across Martin County on Sunday. Mostly minor flooding will be possible due to repeated rounds of showers and training bands that could develop. Temperatures are anticipated to be near seasonable values, in the upper 70s to low 80s during the afternoon hours and in the 60s to low 70s overnight.

The combination of strengthening NE winds, high astronomical tides, and building seas will lead to dangerous boating and very hazardous coastal conditions that will persist through at least early this week. Rough, pounding surf with large breaking waves building to 7 to 12 feet and a high risk of rip currents will lead to dangerous surf conditions and moderate to major beach erosion. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will also occur around the times of high tides, with the greatest tides of concern being Sunday and Monday mornings. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for Saturday, transitioning into a Coastal Flood Watch on Sunday that has been extended through Monday. High Surf Advisories will likely be needed beginning late Saturday, continuing into early next week. Overall, conditions will be hazardous and dangerous and entering the surf is STRONGLY discouraged. Even visiting the beach could become hazardous, especially during periods of high tide.

Wednesday-Thursday..At least a breezy NE flow looks to persist through middle of next week. There remains some differences in the models with how strong the pressure gradient remains between ridge to the north and lingering low pressure either well south or southeast of the area. This will continue hazardous surf and boating conditions, with lingering beach erosion and coastal flooding issues likely. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers remain in the forecast and temperatures will remain near around normal for this time of year.

MARINE

Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Hazardous boating conditions continue across the waters and are forecast to become dangerous through this weekend and into early next week. A tightening pressure gradient will result in increasingly breezy and windy northeast winds, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots tonight increasing to 20 to 30 knots late Saturday onward. Wind gusts also increase, reaching gale-force by Saturday evening. These increasing winds will cause seas to surge, with 6 to 8 foot seas tonight reaching a peak of 12 to 15 feet late this weekend into early next week. At this time, forecast winds and seas are slow to subside through next week, resulting in a prolonged period of hazardous boating conditions across the local Atlantic waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the local waters through Saturday, with Gale Watches expanding from north to south late Saturday into Sunday and continuing through Monday. Aside from the hazardous boating conditions, rain chances are forecast to increase through this weekend as moisture increases. Low rain chances tonight (20-30%) increase this weekend and Monday (40-80%). There remains a low chance (20-30%) of storm development with activity.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period outside of showers and/or lightning storms with north-northeastly flow. Confidence wasn't high enough to introduce TEMPO/PROB30 groups for MVFR conditions, but they may need added into SAT PM for KDAB, KSFB, and KTIX. NNE winds at 8-16kts with gusts up to 15kts-25kts are forecast to gradually weaken tonight before increasing after 15Z SAT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 79 70 79 / 20 60 70 80 MCO 64 81 69 81 / 10 20 40 50 MLB 68 81 71 81 / 20 30 70 80 VRB 68 83 70 83 / 20 20 70 80 LEE 61 79 68 80 / 0 30 30 20 SFB 63 81 68 81 / 10 40 50 60 ORL 63 82 69 82 / 10 20 50 50 FPR 68 82 70 82 / 20 20 70 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday evening for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-552-570- 572.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday evening for AMZ550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for AMZ555- 575.