textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions are forecast across east central Florida through late week. Heading to the beach and entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding, moderate to major beach erosion and a HIGH risk of rip currents are forecast over the next several days.

- Scattered onshore-moving showers are forecast over the Treasure Coast today. Increasing moisture will bring higher coverage of showers Wednesday with isolated lightning strikes and locally heavy rain possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Current-Tuesday Night...Surface high pressure remains fixated across the eastern CONUS as weak low pressure develops near the Bahamas. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient as persistent, gusty NERLY winds continue across ECFL. Highest winds become sustained 20- 25 mph with frequent gusts to 35-40 mph (highest near the coast) this afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory for all of east central FL (except Lake County) into early evening. Winds will decrease slightly into the evening, but will still be breezy/gusty at times and future shifts can decide to carry (or not) the WI.Y at the coast longer. Lower coverage of precip early this morning as drier air builds in north of the Treasure Coast. Rather tight gradient today for precip, with 10-20% chances near Melbourne northward and increasing up to 70% southward into Martin County where moisture is deepest. Moisture does surge northward again late today/tonight and precip chances increase back north toward the Cape. Will have to monitor for heavy rainfall potential late today/tonight across the Treasure Coast. Isolated wind gusts may still approach 35-45 mph in onshore-moving convection later today.

Afternoon max temps remain near seasonal, 80F to L80s. Min overnight temps along/northwest of I-4 in the U60s and generally around 70F to L70s elsewhere - perhaps M70s for many across barrier islands.

Plenty of dangerous coastal/marine hazards continue as numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents and rough surf remain present at all local beaches. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for large breaking waves 7-11 ft in the surf zone. Entering the water is not advised! Pounding surf and persistent long period onshore swells will continue Moderate to Major beach erosion at times of high tide. This significant coastal event coincides with a period of astronomical high tides, and Minor to Moderate flooding is also forecast. During the morning high tide cycles saltwater flooding will impact low-lying roads, lots, docks, and yards near the coast and intracoastal waterways. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect.

Wed-Mon...High pressure across the eastern U.S. does show a weakening trend into the weekend as it is pushed seaward with approach of a developing low pressure system. Gusty onshore winds continue into mid-week, then a gradual relaxing of the pressure gradient occurs, but breezy onshore flow during the day will continue into Sat. Poor to hazardous coastal/marine conditions continue alongside the period of high astronomical tide cycles. Highest PoPs still slated for Wed/Thu during this period as another surge of moisture is poised to move across the region. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast with highs in the L-M80s. Lows continue above climo well into the 60s to L70s at least thru Sun morning.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Unsettled weather pattern continues as gusty NE winds will be slow to abate thru mid-week. There is gradual improvement in onshore winds past this time, but may be periods of 15-20 kt breezes over the open Atlc. Seas will remain hazardous thru late Thu, then some minor/slow improvement may occur, but still could be facing Exercise Caution to Advisory conditions offshore thru much of extended. Gale Warnings gradually give way to Small Craft Advisories later today/tonight. Scattered, gusty, onshore-moving showers continue across the Treasure Coast today as drier air limits shower activity northward. However, moisture does surge back into the area late today and into Wed/Thu and SCT-NMRS showers/ISOLD lighting storms will be forecast, once again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 725 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Band of IFR CIGs will affect LEE through 13Z or so before lifting to VFR. Northeast winds remain breezy and gusty across the terminals, with wind speeds of 12 to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots possible. Some slight weakening of wind speeds are anticipated beyond 00Z across the interior terminals. VCSH chances for today are highest from VRB southward, so have removed mention at all other terminals. Will monitor closely and amend as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 72 80 72 / 20 10 60 50 MCO 82 72 82 72 / 10 20 70 20 MLB 81 72 82 72 / 20 60 70 60 VRB 83 72 84 71 / 50 70 60 50 LEE 82 69 81 70 / 10 0 50 20 SFB 82 72 81 72 / 10 20 70 40 ORL 82 72 82 73 / 10 20 70 30 FPR 82 71 83 71 / 50 80 60 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-045-046-053-058-247-254-259-264-547.

Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552.

Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-570-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ555-570-572-575.