textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Scattered to Numerous showers with embedded lightning forecast along the Treasure Coast (perhaps Brevard too) late tonight into Thursday morning. Locally heavy rainfall possible here. - A moderate risk of rip currents exists at all central Florida Atlantic beaches again today. Never enter the water alone and always swim near a lifeguard!

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through late week and into early next week, with a warming trend expected through at least this weekend. Heat indices may reach the low 100s by Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Current-Tonight...Afternoon temps near to slightly above climo in the U80s to around 90F. Peak heat indices in the L-M90s. Increasing moisture across the region providing for considerable cloudiness over ECFL. Weak high pressure exists along the Eastern Seaboard. A diffuse sea breeze has developed at the coast and will push inland thru the afternoon/early evening. Unsettled aloft with some troughing as well as temps at 500 mb -6.5C to -7.5C. Expecting diurnal rain chances this aftn/evening 25-50% - highest coverage south and across the interior. Primary storm impacts will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-50 mph locally, and heavy downpours.

Later tonight...coverage across the Treasure Coast sneaks back up to SCT-NMRS (40-60%) as a slug of moisture is forecast to produce onshore-moving showers/storms. Further north, coverage along the coast will be ISOLD-SCT (20-40%). Later shifts may feel the need to increase PoPs along the coast with further confidence or by monitoring trends. With some of this activity across the Treasure Coast (late overnight/early Thu morning), we may have to watch for some localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding if CAMs are to be believed. This activity may be low-topped but efficient with high precip rates. Warm and humid conditions anticipated overnight, with mins in the L-M70s.

Thu-Fri...Mid-level ridging centered over the southeast U.S. will slowly drift south/east into the western Atlc and off of the FL east coast. At the surface, high pressure off the Carolina coast will get nudged into the western Atlc with assoc ridge axis remaining north of ECFL. E/SE winds will deepen in the low-levels and enhanced each afternoon at the surface with sea breeze formation and march inland. Moisture also increases further over the area (PWATs 2.0-2.3"). Temperatures warm a bit in the mid-levels but we will still have occasional weak shortwave impulses traverse the area that will aid convection (40-70%) - highest along the coast during the morning, then diurnally across the interior. Primary storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. A few ISOLD strong storms may occur.

Max/min temps near/slightly above normal with highs in the U80s-L90s and lows in the L-U70s. Peak heat indices will approach 98-103F. Highest low temp values at the coast.

Sat-Wed...Previous Modified...A mid-upper level ridge will build over the Florida peninsula this weekend and begin to break down early next week with the approach of a trough. At the surface, a weakening cold front will move into the Deep South this weekend before shifting south into north Florida early next week and into central Florida late Mon into Tue, possibly retreating back north Tue overnight/Wed. Locally, east to southeast surface winds will dominate through at least Sun, before winds become east to northeast and increase a bit by Tue as the front moves through the area. Deep moisture (PWATs > 2") will remain in place, which will enable PoPs to continue 50-70% areawide this weekend. As the front nears, moisture will continue to deepen over the area early next week, resulting in rain and storm chances (60-80%) rising further into early/mid next week. ISOLD strong storms will be possible with the front. High and low temperatures will continue to be slightly above normal thru Tue, but may get knocked back down to near/slightly below normal behind the boundary.

MARINE

Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Thru Monday...Previous Modified...Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast through this week and into early next week as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast and associated ridge axis remains north of the area through at least Sun. E/SE winds will prevail through the weekend with speeds 5-10 kts increasing to 10-15 kts each afternoon with sea breeze formation. Winds then become south to southeast on Mon as a weakening cold front approaches the local area. Seas generally 2-3 ft with occasional seas to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream. Rain and lightning storm coverage will increase, with SCT-NMRS showers/storms forecast across the waters each day. Greatest coverage of this activity will occur into the overnight and morning hours, especially across the Gulf Stream. Storm steering is generally toward the north/northwest thru Fri, then perhaps some offshore- moving convection Sat-Mon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 139 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. Ongoing SHRA becomes TSRA over the next hour or two, though coverage is forecast to be widely scattered. Have maintained PROB30s for the interior through around 22-0Z, but the highest confidence for impacts is SUA, where coverage is forecast to be higher through much of the afternoon. Convection pushes westward through the afternoon, drying out near sunset.

However, CAMs are in fairly good agreement that SHRA with embedded TSRA will develop along the Treasure Coast between 6-8Z, then spread northward to around MLB/TIX through daybreak. Lower confidence in how far northward the convection spreads along the coast, though showers and storms look to continue through the morning hours. Then, convection along the sea breeze moves inland in the afternoon, reaching interior sites after 18Z.

E/SE flow prevails through the period, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds then increase to 10-15 kts, strongest along the coast, Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 87 76 88 / 30 40 20 60 MCO 74 89 75 91 / 10 50 20 70 MLB 76 86 77 88 / 30 60 30 60 VRB 75 87 76 89 / 40 70 40 60 LEE 73 90 74 90 / 30 50 20 70 SFB 73 88 75 90 / 10 40 20 70 ORL 74 88 75 90 / 10 50 20 70 FPR 75 87 76 88 / 50 60 40 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.