textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- A High Risk for rip currents at area beaches, with poor to hazardous boating conditions through this evening.

- Warming trend this week, becoming hot by midweek, with highs back in the low to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday, nearing record values.

- Isolated to scattered showers and potentially a storm or two will continue into tonight, mainly across southern portions of east central Florida (rain chances 20-40%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A stalled boundary persists across the Straits of Florida this afternoon, maintaining just enough moisture and lift for some isolated to scattered showers along the Treasure Coast. Very dry air exists above 800 mb, with a ridge axis building into the area, so deep convection is not forecast. However, a stray lightning strike cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, it's quite dry, with RHs between 35-45%. Breezy winds, with gusts 20-25 mph, will persist this afternoon, before slackening this evening.

Tonight, winds continue to subside, as the pressure gradient between the high and stalled boundary relaxes. Onshore flow persists, maintaining PoPs 20-40% over the Treasure coast, as showers and a storm or two may drift onshore. The best chance for this looks to be late tonight into early Tuesday morning, during the convective maxima over the Gulf Stream. Morning lows are forecast in the 60s, warmest along the coast.

Tuesday-Thursday...A ridge axis stretches from a high pressure off of the Mid-Atlantic coast to the eastern Gulf through mid-week. Onshore flow slackens on Tuesday, though winds still increase to 10- 15 mph behind the sea breeze. Winds veer SE, then SW, Wednesday and Thursday, as the ridge axis shifts southward. Mainly dry conditions prevail, though can't rule out a few showers along the Treasure Coast/Okeechobee Tuesday. In addition, CAMs suggest a few showers developing along the sea breeze over the interior Tuesday afternoon, though any convection would face very dry air above 700mb. Temperatures increase a few degrees each day, peaking on Thursday due to SW flow. Highs in the lower 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland Tuesday afternoon increase to the lower to mid-90s area-wide Thursday. Several records will be threatened (see Climate section).

Friday-Monday (modified previous)...Model differences begin to take shape into late week and weekend. Front moving into the Southeast U.S. is generally forecast to push southward into the area and then lift back northward, before stalling near to north of Florida through the weekend. Discrepancies include how far south the initial front makes it and timing. Regardless, the front will increase moisture and generally lead to increasing shower and storm chances, with PoPs currently ranging from 20-30% Friday and up to 30-50% into early next week. The arrival of the front as well as increasing cloud cover and return of rain chances should lower max temps slightly. However, highs are forecast to remain near to above normal (mid 80s to low 90s) through the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue through this evening, as high pressure builds over the area. East winds up to 20-25 kts offshore south of Cape Canaveral will subside after midnight, becoming 10-15 kts across all of the local Atlantic waters by daybreak. Seas also subside, with 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape diminishing to 3-5 ft to begin Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories continue through 8 PM.

Generally favorable boating conditions then continue into the weekend. However, will need to monitor the progress of an approaching front late week. Scattered showers and a few storms persist into tonight and into Tuesday offshore from the Treasure Coast. Then, mostly dry conditions prevail through the period. Increasing rain chances are expected with the front into the weekend. Onshore winds veer offshore by mid to late week, though they will back SE in the afternoons with the sea breeze. Winds 15 kts or less through the period. Seas 2-4 ft.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 748 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mostly dry this evening, with a couple isolated light showers/virga, mainly across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties. Due to the light nature of these returns, have kept any mention of rain out of the TAF for now. ENE winds 10-15 KT with gusts to around 20KT this evening will decrease to around 5 KT after 02z, staying closer to 10 KT MLB- SUA. Winds will then pick back up to around 7-12 KT everywhere after 15z Tue. Models are showing isolated showers being possible from MLB-SUA, but low confidence in timing and coverage, so have kept mention of rain out of TAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Very sensitive fire weather conditions this week, with breezy easterly winds and gusts 20-25 mph this afternoon. Lingering moisture maintains scattered showers along the Treasure Coast today. However, drier air to the north has led to min RH 35-45%. High pressure builds over the peninsula through mid-week. A few showers and a storm or two will be possible over southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail. Onshore winds slacken through Wednesday, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoons behind the sea breeze. No min RH concerns for coastal areas due to onshore winds. Although, increasingly hot and dry conditions will lead to min RH 40-50% west of I-95 on Tuesday and 35- 45% on Wednesday. High temperatures reach the lower 90s inland by Wednesday afternoon. Very good dispersion through mid-week.

High pressure will maintain hot and dry conditions through Thursday, with highs reaching the lower to mid-90s Thursday afternoon. Very sensitive fire weather conditions, with SW flow 10-15 mph in the afternoon and min RH 35-40%. High mixing heights will allow for excellent dispersion Thursday afternoon across much of the area, which could lead to control problems.

CLIMATE

Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites Wednesday, May 6th and Thursday, May 7th:

Site May 6 May 7 Daytona 95 (1955) 93 (1952) Leesburg 93 (2007) 94 (1984) Sanford 95 (1952) 94 (2009) Orlando 98 (1922) 98 (1915) Melbourne 94 (2022) 91 (1980) Vero Beach 95 (2022) 93 (1947) Fort Pierce 95 (2022) 95 (1906)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 82 67 90 / 0 10 0 0 MCO 65 86 68 93 / 0 20 0 0 MLB 69 82 71 87 / 10 10 0 0 VRB 68 83 69 87 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 64 87 68 93 / 0 10 0 0 SFB 64 86 68 94 / 0 10 0 0 ORL 66 87 69 93 / 0 20 0 0 FPR 68 83 68 87 / 30 20 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-572- 575.