textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue through the rest of the weekend, but isolated sprinkles and showers due to persistent onshore flow cannot be ruled out, mainly south of the Cape.

- Rain chances increase into Tuesday, with a few storms possible, as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions are then forecast mid to late week behind the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Today-Tonight... High pressure stretching across central Florida early this morning is forecast to gradually retreat northeastward across the western Atlantic. Onshore winds continue, increasing to around 10 mph by the afternoon. RAP sounding analysis indicates a column of low level moisture with a low level RH around 75-80%. This should be enough to support shallow, onshore-moving showers, particularly from Cape Canaveral southward. Outside of a 20% PoP across southern Brevard and the Treasure Coast counties, most areas should remain dry. More sunshine is expected today with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Monday-Tuesday Night... A cold front slides offshore the eastern U.S., extending across areas of north Florida and into the Gulf by Monday. A weak area of low pressure develops along the frontal boundary, lifting across portions of the southeast U.S. on Tuesday. This will pull a cold front more cleanly through central Florida late Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. East-northeast winds on Monday veer overnight, becoming breezy out of the southwest on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are forecast Monday, with rain chances increasing on Tuesday ahead of the next frontal passage. The highest coverage looks to be along, north and west of a line from Lake Kissimmee to New Smyrna Beach (50-60%) with lower rain chances further south and east (30-40%). Surface CAPE is forecast to remain limited on Tuesday with global model soundings suggesting the potential for multilayer cloudiness. However, southwest shear profiles increasing to around 35-40 kts near 700 mb will contribute to a conditional storm environment. Gusty showers and isolated gusty storms look to be the primary threat. Temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s on Monday continue to trend above normal on Tuesday, reaching the low to mid 80s in southwest flow. Low temperatures spread the low 60s across the interior and mid 60s along the coast Monday morning, more widely ranging the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday morning.

Wednesday-Saturday... High pressure builds across the region Wednesday behind the front. The next area of low pressure attempts to loosely organize offshore Texas on Thursday, gradually traveling east-northeast and emerging into the western Atlantic late Friday or on Saturday. An attached frontal boundary sags near or across north Florida into the weekend with current guidance keeping it north of the local area through the forecast period. Dry conditions hold through Friday. Moisture increases in vicinity of the front over north Florida this weekend, allowing for scattered rain chances (30-40%) near, north, and west of I-4 on Saturday. Afternoon temperatures become cooler Wednesday, widely spreading the low 70s across the north near Leesburg and Daytona Beach and reaching the low 80s across the far south near Lake Okeechobee. Gradual warming is forecast each day, with highs ranging the upper 70s to mid 80s by Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

East winds 15-20 kts diminish from north to south through late this morning as high pressure retreats over the western Atlantic. Poor boating continues across the Treasure Coast Gulf Stream waters into early this afternoon as seas up to 6 ft slowly subside. Outside of isolated to scattered onshore moving showers, favorable Atlantic boating is forecast Monday with seas 3-4 ft and east to northeast winds 10-15 kts. The next cold front approaches the local waters Tuesday, increasing and shifting winds out of the southwest at 15-20 kts. In response, seas build 4-5 ft, increasing up to 6 feet across the far offshore Volusia waters. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms are forecast across the waters Tuesday ahead of the front. Winds and seas quickly subside Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR conditions forecast through the period at all east central Florida terminals. ENE winds are forecast generally between 5 to 10 knots today through this afternoon, though some gusty winds persist from MLB southward along the coast. Winds lighten after 00Z tonight out of the NNE around 5 knots. Rain is not anticipated through the period, though some guidance has hinted at light showers from TIX southward. Confidence was too low to include within the TAF at this time. Will monitor closely and amend as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 78 63 77 66 / 0 10 20 20 MCO 80 64 81 67 / 0 10 20 10 MLB 78 66 79 68 / 20 10 20 10 VRB 79 66 80 68 / 20 20 20 10 LEE 80 61 79 65 / 0 10 20 20 SFB 80 63 79 65 / 0 10 20 10 ORL 80 63 79 66 / 0 10 20 10 FPR 80 65 80 67 / 20 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.