textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- A hot and dry pattern will build through much of the week. Many interior locations are forecast to reach the low 90s from Wednesday into late week.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast behind a weak cold front today.

- A long period swell building across the local Atlantic waters will promote an increasing risk of life-threatening rip currents this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Monday-Tuesday... A mid/upper level trough moves offshore the eastern U.S. seaboard. Surface low pressure developing off the mid Atlantic coast will pull a cold front through central Florida today with high pressure and drier air quickly building early Tuesday. Low rain chances (~10-20%) may exist in vicinity of the front today. Weak forcing along the front paired with favorable surface instability will result in a low chance for a lightning storm, mainly south of Orlando and the Cape. Isolated light showers (~10%) may move onto the coast behind the front as northeast flow (10-15 mph) develops. These lingering coastal showers look to mostly diminish early tonight as the drier airmass builds, although some High-Res guidance may be a tad optimistic in keeping a mention into Tuesday. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to widely prevail Tuesday.

The developing onshore wind component should help regulate temperatures some compared to prior days, and values should return closer to normal today. Much of Volusia and areas of coastal Brevard look to top out in the low 80s this afternoon while much of the Treasure Coast and interior counties should spread the mid 80s. A few upper 80s still remain possible across interior Osceola and Okeechobee. The east coast sea breeze should keep much of the coast in the low 80s Tuesday with areas west of I-95 warming into the mid to upper 80s.

A long period swell (14-17 seconds) building across the local Atlantic waters will promote an increasing risk of rip currents this week. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents will exist along the Volusia coast today and will likely expand across much of the east central Florida coastline into Tuesday. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs!

Wednesday-Sunday... High pressure over the Atlantic seaboard sinks into the western Atlantic early Wednesday with it's ridge axis briefly settling across central Florida. Developing low pressure across the Ohio Valley region moves offshore the Atlantic coast Thursday pulling the next cold front into Florida. Global ensemble members are still trying to resolve how the front will evolve as it approaches or moves through central Florida. Regardless of how cleanly the boundary may pass, there is generally good consensus on QPF remaining limited with most areas remaining dry through Friday. Should rain chances evolve with this feature, the best chances appear to be on Thursday where there is only a low (~20%) mention near and north of the Orlando Metro. Late Saturday into early next week looks to be a more reasonable chance for mentionable rainfall as yet another front passes the area.

Above normal temperatures continue through much of the extended forecast period. By Wednesday, ensemble probabilities suggest moderate to high confidence for interior temperatures to reach the 90 degree mark, and interior highs will generally persist near 90F through Saturday. Along the coast, highs should more widely vary through the mid 80s to low 90s mid to late week, "coolest" on Friday in onshore flow. Some relief comes on Sunday as cloud cover and rain chances increase and northerly flow begins to advect cooler air.

MARINE

Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions spread southward across the local waters today behind a weak cold front. Small craft should exercise caution as northeast winds 15-20 kts spread the Volusia and Brevard waters mid to late morning, increasing across the Treasure Coast waters into the afternoon. Seas build 4-6 ft across the nearshore waters, peaking up to 7 ft across portions of the Gulf Stream. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect for the Volusia and Brevard offshore waters at 5 PM today for seas up to 7 ft. Seas slowly subside into tonight allowing the offshore Brevard SCA to expire at 5 AM Tuesday with the offshore Volusia SCA following at 11 AM. High pressure building over the local waters into Tuesday will allow for improving conditions with onshore winds slackening around 10 kts and seas mostly subsiding 3-5ft. However, small craft should exercise caution across portions of the Gulf Stream through sunset Tuesday for localized higher seas up to 6 ft. More favorable conditions then build through much of mid to late week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Mostly dry conditions prevail. Can't rule out a few showers drifting onshore, mainly from MLB northward, through this morning along and behind a cold front. However, coverage is forecast to be low enough to negate the need for VCSH mention. Primarily VFR through the period, though CIGs SCT030 through the afternoon may occasionally become BKN, and thus MVFR, today. Will continue to watch the threat for MVFR CIGs prior to daybreak at northern terminals, though chances remain low. Tonight, a similar situation is forecast, with CIGs dropping to SCT020. Breezy NNE winds, especially along the coast, with sustained winds 12-17 kts and gusts 20-25 kts. Will see winds diminish after sunset, but remain around 5-10 kts through 6Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 79 66 82 64 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 84 67 87 66 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 82 69 82 69 / 10 10 0 0 VRB 83 68 82 67 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 85 64 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 84 65 87 64 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 84 67 87 67 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 83 67 83 66 / 10 10 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.