textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- The typical afternoon convective pattern today before a disturbance moves across the peninsula Friday into Saturday leading to higher rain chances, increasing seas, and a greater risk of rip currents.

- Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves towards east central Florida.

- Near normal temperatures into early weekend, with a slight warming trend forecast into early next week, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure off the eastern US coast will remain in place through the period as a trough moves eastward across the Midwest. At the surface, high pressure just off the eastern US in the western Atlantic will move ever so slightly northward into tonight. Locally winds will become more easterly areawide, with speeds generally 5-10 mph. This dominate onshore flow will continue to promote isolated onshore-moving showers along the coast through the morning and early afternoon hours. Can not rule out an isolated lightning storm or two moving onshore through that time. Coverage of showers and lightning storms will increase and transition to across the interior in the afternoon as the diffuse east coast sea breeze moves inland. Moisture across the area will remain high, with forecast PW values of 1.9-2.1" across the area, which supports convection into this afternoon. There is a medium to high (40-70 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms this afternoon. Due to the persistent east to southeast flow aloft, convection today will move west to northwest around 10-15 mph. The environment is conducive for storms this afternoon, with forecast soundings showing plenty of instability (MUCAPE 2200-3000 J/kg), Strong buoyancy (lifted index greater than -4), cooler temperatures aloft (-8C to -9C at 500 mb), and ample downdraft potential (DCAPE 500-800 J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 50 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Due to the potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms, the threat for minor, localized flooding will continue. Any lingering activity will diminish late this evening, with mostly dry conditions overnight. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible across the Atlantic waters overnight, with some of this activity potentially moving onshore along the coast.

Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-105F this afternoon. Conditions will continue to be muggy into tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Friday-Sunday... An upper level high pressure in the western Atlantic on Friday will steadily shift southward and build across the Florida peninsula by late weekend. At the surface, an inverted trough over the Bahamas on Friday will lift northward across the Florida peninsula through early weekend. Locally, this inverted trough will bring an increase in moisture across the area, with forecast PW values of 2.0-2.2" areawide. This will result in above normal rain chances through early weekend. There is a high (70-80 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms on Friday, and a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance on Saturday. Rain and storm chances are forecast to return closer to normal on Sunday (PoP 30-60 percent) as winds become lighter locally as the ridge axis moves over the Florida peninsula, resulting in a more diurnal pattern. Early morning showers across the local waters and along the coast each day will spread inland through the late morning and afternoon hours in the southeast to east flow. The environment supports convection with forecast soundings showing plenty of instability (MUCAPE 2000-2600 J/kg), cooler temperatures aloft (-7 C to -8 C at 500 mb), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 600-900 J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Multiple rounds of showers will increase the potential for localized minor flooding in some spots. Any lingering activity will diminish by late evening.

Seasonable temperatures are forecast each day, especially late week through early weekend, as the increased moisture across the area will result in higher cloud cover. This will limit daytime heating across the area. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s Friday and Saturday, with low to mid 90s forecast on Sunday as a little more daytime heating is anticipated to occur. These temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat index values of 100-105F Friday and Saturday, and 102-107F on Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday... Upper level ridge axis will remain over the Florida peninsula through the period as the high pressure slowly shifts eastward from the western Atlantic on Monday into the Gulf and the Deep South by mid week. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic will slowly shift southward into mid week, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Locally, onshore winds (east to southeast) on Monday will become south to southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday, with speeds remaining light through the period as the high pressure moves overhead. These lighter winds will allow the diurnal pattern to continue, which will result in rain and storm chances being near-normal. There is a medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms on Monday and Tuesday, with low to medium (20-40 percent) chance on Wednesday as drier air moves in across east central Florida.

Slight warming trend is forecast with temperatures anticipated to be near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices 102-107F each day. However, there is a low chance of heat indices reaching 108F or higher in some spots, but confidence remains low at this time. Will continue to monitor closely. Overnight lows will be warm and muggy with lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Today-Monday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will remain in place today, keeping boating conditions generally favorable. Onshore winds will be 10-15 KT with seas 1-3 feet today. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast throughout today and into tonight. The high pressure shifts northward on Friday as an inverted trough lifts northward from the Bahamas toward the Florida peninsula, eventually moving across the Florida peninsula into early weekend. As the inverted trough moves northward, onshore winds across the Atlantic waters will range from 10-20 KT areawide, which will build the seas to 3-5ft. The highest seas will be focused across the Gulf Stream. Cautionary headlines may be needed for the wind. Moisture across the area will also increase as the inverted trough moves across the area, resulting in above-normal rain and storm chances on Friday (60-80%) and closer to normal chances on Saturday (30-50%). High pressure will reestablish across the local Atlantic waters on Saturday as the inverted trough exits the area, and remain in place through early next week. Winds shift to out of the southeast generally between 5 to 10 knots, with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late this weekend into early next week. Isolated showers and storms will continue to possible into early next week, although guidance is indicating drier conditions across the local Atlantic waters next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Isolated onshore moving showers and storms will occur along the coast early this morning. Onshore winds will then lead to a faster development of the east coast sea breeze, with scattered showers and storms developing earlier along the coast this morning and shifting westward across the interior this afternoon. VFR conditions are mostly expected, with shower/storm activity leading to tempo IFR/MVFR conditions. No changes to VCTS timing and TEMPO/PROB30 TSRA windows, starting as early as as 14-17Z at KVRB-KSUA, shifting further in time to 17/18-20/21Z across the interior.

Easterly winds increasing to around 10-13 knots through this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots possible along the coast from KMLB south. Most showers and storms are forecast to shift west of the area by 00Z, but isolated/scattered showers and a few storms will be able to again push onshore along the Treasure Coast this evening, and then along much of the east central FL coast overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 77 88 76 / 40 20 70 20 MCO 90 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 10 MLB 88 78 88 77 / 50 30 60 30 VRB 89 77 89 76 / 50 30 60 20 LEE 90 76 90 77 / 60 20 70 10 SFB 91 77 91 77 / 50 20 60 10 ORL 91 77 90 77 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 88 77 88 76 / 50 30 60 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.