textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 145 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM as wind chills reach the mid 20s to low 30s

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions today, becoming hazardous across all of the local Atlantic again tonight, particularly in the Gulf Stream

- Low humidity and gusty winds combine to produce sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions today and Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Today-Tonight...Temperatures continue to fall early this morning as high pressure builds overhead. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 9 AM as a light northwest wind produces wind chill values in the mid 20s to low 30s. Conditions are not overly favorable for frost formation, but wind-sheltered and rural areas will have the greatest potential for patchy frost this morning. Could we see a handful of 32-degree temperatures this morning? HREF probabilities for freezing temps have remained nearly the same since yesterday (40- 60%), focused on Lake and inland Volusia counties (Ocala National Forest). NBM probabilities of reaching 32 degrees or lower are also 30-50% in southern Osceola and far northern Okeechobee counties. So yes, there may be some spots that reach freezing but it is going to be very short-lived (1-2 hours).

Temperatures rebound into the low and middle 60s this afternoon as very dry air produces a clear sky. It will be breezy to gusty at times, particularly at the coast. Winds stay elevated into tonight as temperatures retreat into the mid to upper 40s, or about 10 degrees warmer than forecast for this morning.

Saturday-Sunday...Mid level troughing very slowly moves east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S. on Saturday, trailed by ridging building across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front is forecast to push south across the Florida Peninsula Saturday morning. The effect of this will be west winds veering more northerly during the day, gusting at times along the coast to 25 mph. Due in part to these winds, cooler air will funnel down the coastline, making for a somewhat chilly day across coastal Volusia and northern Brevard counties. Highs warm a bit more south of Orlando, reaching the low 70s.

Efficient CAA and mostly clear skies Saturday night are likely to bring temperatures down into the mid and upper 30s again, particularly over interior east central Florida. Coastal spots will stay closer to the mid 40s and low 50s. For perspective, NBM probabilities for freezing temps are less than 10-15% for Lake County Sunday morning. Wind chills will also be less of a factor as winds lighten, but rural locations could drop into the mid 30s around sunrise. The eastern reaches of 500mb ridging reach Florida Sunday, maintaining northwest flow aloft. Surface high pressure expands over the peninsula, allowing lighter onshore flow to return to the forecast. Sunday afternoon looks to be a touch warmer, but the real warming trend starts next week.

Monday-Thursday...A daily warming trend is still on tap for next week as mostly dry conditions persist. With high pressure solidly in place, winds look to remain on the light side each day, too. Normal highs for this point in February are generally in the low to mid 70s, and we are headed for temperatures slightly above that Tuesday through Thursday. Later in the week, a mid level disturbance moves overhead, embedded in northwesterly flow. Despite this, dry conditions prevail. With little rain in sight, ongoing drought conditions are likely to worsen next week.

MARINE

Issued at 145 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the local Atlantic today and again become hazardous across all marine legs tonight. Offshore (WNW) winds continue but decrease briefly today, allowing seas to decrease to 7 feet in the Gulf Stream (where Small Craft Advisories remain). However, westerly winds strengthen again this evening into tonight in response to a tightening pressure gradient. Sustained winds of 25-30 kt are possible in the offshore waters with at least occasional gusts around gale force. Conditions and near-term model guidance will be monitored closely, as some solutions suggest a brief time window of Gale conditions well offshore. However, confidence in a Gale Watch at this juncture was too low. Seas build again tonight, reaching 6 to 9 feet (highest closer to 60 nm). Winds veer north-northwesterly Saturday morning, then northeasterly Saturday evening. Seas and winds are expected to remain hazardous for much of the Gulf Stream, with small craft needing to exercise caution elsewhere.

Winds decrease Sunday into next week as high pressure becomes established over the local waters. Seas take a bit more time to fall below 7 feet (not until Sunday night or early Monday). Gradually more favorable boating conditions return by the early to middle part of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions forecast through the period. NW winds 5 to 10 knots through this morning, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots after 15Z at all terminals. By 00Z, winds become more westerly with wind speeds decreasing to around 10 knots. Rain is not forecast and skies are anticipated to remain clear across east central Florida.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Breezy west-northwest winds 10 to 15 mph (gusts around 20 to 25 mph) will combine with lower humidity to produce near critical fire weather conditions today. Despite yesterday's rain, much of the area remains in a moderate to severe drought. Winds veer northwest Saturday morning and around to the north-northeast Saturday afternoon. Slightly higher wind speeds are forecast along the coast compared to inland locations, and lower humidity values are anticipated over interior east central Florida Saturday afternoon. As a result, at least fire sensitive conditions are likely to continue Saturday, particularly where winds and lower humidity values interface. Fire sensitivities will likely persist into next week as well with dry conditions continuing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 63 45 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 63 49 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 64 46 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 64 45 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 62 45 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 63 46 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 63 48 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 64 45 69 45 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ555.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ570-572-575.