textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions are forecast across east central Florida through this weekend and into next week. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding, moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents, and Gale conditions are forecast this weekend and early next week.

- Increasing rain chances are forecast through the weekend. Minor flooding cannot be ruled out due to repeated rounds of showers and the potential for training bands of showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Today-Tonight... High pressure holds influence over much of the eastern U.S. today. Increasing northeast winds are observed on the south side of the high pressure this afternoon with may areas of central Florida seeing peak gusts exceeding 20-25 mph so far today. A Wind Advisory is currently in effect for portions of the coast including Volusia and northern Brevard, before extending southward through the remainder of the coast this evening as wind gusts increase to 35 mph. Onshore moving showers have been ongoing through much of the morning and have shown an increase in coverage north of the Cape and the Orlando Metro early this afternoon. Rounds of scattered to numerous quick moving showers are forecast to continue through the evening and overnight, and coastal areas which see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may become vulnerable to ponding of water or minor flooding. Despite cold temperatures aloft (500mb), poor lapse rates between the 700-500mb layer have largely limited lightning and storm potential, and lightning chances remain low through the remainder of today and into tonight. Low temperatures fall to range the upper 60s across much of east central Florida early Sunday morning while areas near the coast may hold closer to 70 degrees.

Sunday-Tuesday... A tightening pressure gradient is expected into Sunday as high pressure persists over the eastern U.S. and low pressure begins to gradually organize over the western Atlantic. Gusty northeast winds strengthen on Sunday, persisting into the workweek. A Wind Advisory continues along the coast Sunday, but most ensemble probabilities do not show enough confidence to expand inland at this time. Therefore, expect wind gusts of 30-35 mph along the coast, remaining closer to 30 mph inland on Sunday with gusty conditions persisting Monday and Tuesday. The long duration onshore wind event will continue hazardous to dangerous beach and marine conditions. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents and rough surf is expected with large breaking waves of 7-11 ft, and a High Surf Advisory continues at least through Monday. Entering the water is strongly discouraged! Long period swells exceeding 10-12 seconds combined with pounding surf will contribute to Moderate to Major beach erosion at area beaches. Wind driven coastal impacts will be further enhanced by a period of astronomical high tides. Wave runup during the morning high tide cycles will result in Minor to Moderate coastal flooding, especially Monday and Tuesday mornings, and a Coastal Flood Warning in effect Sunday and Monday will likely need to be extended into Tuesday. Heading to the beach could become hazardous, especially during times of high tide.

Passing pockets of locally higher moisture will support rounds of onshore moving showers on Sunday. Greatest rain chances are forecast in vicinity of the coastal I-95 corridor (50-80%) while scattered (20-40%) rounds of showers should still manage to push inland. Lightning chances remain low. However, showers will be capable of localized gusty winds 40-45 mph and heavy downpours. General consensus among deterministic and ensemble model suites has highlighted an area of higher QPF across portions of southeast Florida on Sunday, extending northward through portions of the Treasure Coast counties. A slight risk for excessive rainfall exists for these areas, and cannot rule out ponding water or minor flooding where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall occurs. Rounds of showers remain forecast Sunday night before a drier airmass begins to advect southward. This will reduce interior rain chances Monday and Tuesday. Scattered rain chances persist along the coast Monday, becoming limited south of the Cape by Tuesday.

High temperatures remain seasonal early next week, mostly in the low 80s. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across the interior will be a few degrees warmer across the coastal counties each day.

Wednesday-Friday (previous)...Discrepancies persist in guidance relative to the strength of the pressure gradient mid to late week, primarily driven by differing placement and strength of the lingering low pressure system out in the Atlantic. These should resolve over time after the low develops. Regardless, breezy and gusty northeast winds are anticipated to persist across east central Florida, resulting in prolonged hazardous coastal and surf conditions. Additionally, this flow will support development of onshore-moving showers and isolated storms, with the highest chances focused along the coast. Lower chances across the interior, though it cannot be fully ruled out. Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal values for this time of year.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into next week as a tightening pressure gradient across the local waters leads to increasing winds and seas. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots today build to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 35 knots from Sunday onward. Seas of 6 to 9 feet today rapidly build tonight into Sunday up to 10 to 15 feet, highest across the Gulf Stream waters. Elevated seas are anticipated to linger through the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory across the local waters will upgrade into Gale Warnings, starting at 8 PM tonight across the Volusia and Brevard waters and at 8 AM Sunday across the Treasure Coast waters. For now, the Gale Warning continues through Monday, though extensions in time will be likely given the prolonged period of dangerous conditions.

Moisture increases across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend, with a return of scattered to numerous onshore-moving showers anticipated. Rain chances 40-70% today increase to 60-80% tonight through Monday, with a slight decrease in rain chances from Tuesday onward. There is a low chance (20-40%) for storm development with activity.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Breezy to windy conditions forecast to largely continue across the area through tonight and into Sunday. N/NE winds up to 14-17 knots with gusts to 22-25 knots generally forecast through this afternoon. Winds decrease to 10-12 knots inland tonight, but either remain or increase up to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots (potentially higher at times) as a NE wind surge builds in near to after midnight. Winds areawide then increase out of the NE to 18-22 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots (up to 35 knots at times along the coast). Gusty isolated to scattered onshore moving showers forecast through tonight and into Sunday, with a slight chance for storms as well. Have kept VCSH for much of the forecast period, with some tempo MVFR conditions at times with this activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 70 79 70 80 / 70 70 60 50 MCO 69 82 70 83 / 50 40 40 10 MLB 70 82 72 82 / 70 80 60 30 VRB 69 83 71 84 / 80 80 60 50 LEE 67 81 68 81 / 40 20 30 10 SFB 68 82 69 82 / 50 50 50 20 ORL 69 82 70 83 / 50 40 40 10 FPR 69 82 71 83 / 80 80 60 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ141-347-447.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-347-447.

Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ154-159-164-647-747.

Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ154-159-164- 647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-552- 570-572.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575.

Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ555-575.