textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

-Mostly dry conditions continue through Saturday, with rain and lightning storm chances returning Sunday across the Treasure Coast.

-Seasonable to below normal temperatures forecast through mid next week, with the coldest overnight temperatures occurring tonight with lows dropping into the 40s across most areas.

-Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue today with conditions improving tonight into Friday. Poor to hazardous seas redvelop Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Rest of Today-Saturday... Upper level high pressure across the Great Lakes area Today will gradually shift eastward and deepen, reaching Maine and New Brunswick on Friday and Saturday. At the surface, a low pressure system near Maine today will lift north and eastward into late week. This will drag an attached dry cold front that is across the eastern US across east central Florida through the day. The front is forecast to reach South Florida by late this afternoon/early evening. Surface high pressure will then build across the Florida peninsula behind the front on Friday and into early weekend. Locally, dry conditions will prevail, with no mentionable rain chances through the period. Drier air will filter across the area behind the front, with forecast PW values going from around 0.8" to around 0.5" behind the front and continuing through Saturday. North to northwest winds around 5-10 mph today will become light and variable on Friday before becoming northeast to east on Saturday and increasing to 5-10 mph once again.

The frontal passage will bring cooler air across the area before a gradual warming trend takes place, with temps remaining seasonable to below normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will range from mid to upper 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south today, before a gradual warming trends starts with highs in the low to mid 70s across the area on Friday, and mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 40s west of I-95, and mid to upper 40s to low 50s across the coast on tonight before warming generally to upper 40s to low 50s on Friday night, and generally 50s to low 60s on Saturday night.

Sunday-Wednesday... Another upper level low develops over the Great Lakes region on Sunday before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front associated with the upper level low, will push across east central Florida late Sunday into early Monday. High pressure will then build across the Florida peninsula behind the front. Locally, low level moisture will increase slightly into early next week, with forecast PW values rising to 0.8-1.1" before drier air begins to filter across the area Tuesday, dropping PW values to 0.5-0.7". Rain chances return to the forecast on Sunday ahead of the front as moisture increases across the area. There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of showers across the Treasure Coast on Sunday, with a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms. Conditions become mostly dry on Monday through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances across land areas. However, isolated showers will remain possible across the Gulf Stream waters during that time.

Northeast winds 5-10 mph on Sunday will increase to 8-12 mph with gusts to 20 to 25 mph on Monday before winds veer easterly and decrease to 5-10 mph once again on Tuesday. Winds then become east to southeast on Wednesday with speeds remaining 5-10 mph. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday will cool to mid to upper 60s to low 70s across the north to low to mid 70s across the south on Monday before slightly warming on Tuesday and Wednesday to low to mid 70s. Sunday and Monday nights will be the coolest for this period, with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s north of I-4 corridor, with 50s everywhere else. Overnight lows will then warm slightly to low to mid 50s across the interior and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast on Tuesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s across the interior and low to mid 60s along the coast on Wednesday night.

MARINE

Issued at 252 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Today-Monday... Poor to hazardous conditions today with favorable boating conditions returning across the local waters Friday into the weekend. Conditions will deteriorate once again on Monday with poor to hazardous seas developing. Small craft should exercise caution across the nearshore waters today for winds 15-20 KT. Hazardous conditions across the Gulf Stream today with seas increasing up to 8 ft in the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory for all offshore zones through 7PM tonight. North to northwest winds today at 15-20 KT, except across the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters where winds increase to 20-25 KT, will decrease to around 10 KT across all the waters tonight. Winds then become light and variable Friday as high pressure rebuilds across the waters. Winds then shift north to northeast on Saturday with speeds around 10 KT, becoming more northerly and increasing to 10-15 KT on Sunday. Winds then become northeast and increase to 20-25 KT Sunday night and continuing through Monday. Seas up to 8 ft in the offshore waters today before decreasing back down to 6ft tonight, then 2-4ft on Friday, and 2-3ft Saturday, before slowly building back up to 2-5ft Sunday and 6-10 ft on Monday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed on Monday with cautionary headlines on Sunday. Outside of isolated to scattered showers on Sunday and Monday, mostly dry conditions are forecast through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions forecast at all local terminals through the period. NNW winds around 10 knots diminish into the overnight hours, with light and variable winds forecast areawide on Friday. Rain is not forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 42 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 45 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 48 73 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 47 74 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 43 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 43 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 46 72 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 46 75 56 77 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ570-572- 575.