textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions will continue across central Florida Atlantic coast through late week. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding, moderate to major beach erosion and a HIGH risk of rip currents are forecast over the next several days.

- Increasing moisture will bring higher coverage and intensity of showers with isolated storms tonight and Wednesday materializing near the coast in the form of rainbands. Locally heavy rain will produce a risk for flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Tonight-Wed...High pressure to the north and lower pressure over the Bahamas will maintain gusty NE winds with a continuation of rough, pounding surf, beach erosion around the times of high tide exacerbated by astronomical high tides. Additionally, deeper moisture is forecast to surge northward and produce an excessive rain threat starting tonight along the Treasure coast and lift northward into Brevard county on Wed. Increased instability will support deeper convection (thunder) as well as higher rainfall rates in rainbands that cross the coast. Quick 1-3 inches will be possible across portions of the coast mainly south of the Cape which will produce a minor flood threat.

Thu-Tue...Pressure gradient relaxes a bit as low pressure retrogrades into the SE Gulf and weakens. Winds remain NE to E around high pressure to the north, breezy/gusty esp at the coast but not as windy Thu/Fri. Reinforcing high pressure over the eastern US builds southward so we should see an increase in the easterly wind flow this weekend with another round of Atlc rainbands pushing onshore depending on how much moisture will be available. What is notable is the upper pattern starts to become more El Nino-ish early next week lower latitude troughs traversing the southern US. Too early to say with any confidence if there will be a severe weather threat but will monitor trends.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Dangerous boating conditions persist with solid Small Craft Advisory conditions across the local Atlc waters this afternoon. The Gale Warning for the offshore waters and nearshore Treasure coast waters is struggling but a tightening of the pressure gradient is possible through this eve between lower pressure over the Bahamas and high pressure to the north. The pressure gradient will begin to slacken Wed across the south and all the waters by Thu. This will allow winds to decrease 10-20 knots though still gusty. Seas will be slower to subside so Advisories will remain in place through Thu and may need to be extended into Fri for the offshore waters. In fact, increased easterly flow this weekend is forecast to maintain 7 ft seas over the offshore waters. Moisture surges northward tonight and Wed with SCT-NMRS showers/ISOLD lighting storms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Persistent light to moderate onshore moving showers should lead to predominant MVFR conditions along the Treasure Coast tonight, with localized IFR conditions at times. As moisture rises, expect scattered to locally numerous showers (and maybe a storm or two) to build northward with time across the area tonight into tomorrow. Predominant MVFR cigs should also build northward with time across the rest of east central Florida into Wednesday and linger through much of the day. Onshore moving showers will produce additional vis reductions to IFR/MVFR.

Winds decrease slightly to 10-15 knots across the interior this evening, but remain breezy/windy up to 15-20 knots, with gusts to 25-30 knots along the coast. Winds increase again over the interior tomorrow by late morning into the afternoon. However, overall wind speeds across east central Florida may be just a tad lower, around 13-18 knots, with gusts 22-28 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 80 73 81 / 10 60 50 60 MCO 73 82 73 85 / 30 60 30 40 MLB 74 82 74 83 / 60 60 50 40 VRB 74 84 73 85 / 70 60 50 30 LEE 70 81 71 84 / 10 40 30 40 SFB 73 81 73 84 / 20 60 50 60 ORL 73 82 73 85 / 30 60 40 40 FPR 74 84 74 85 / 70 60 50 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-045-046-053- 058-141-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552.

Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-570-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ555-570-572-575.