textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous beach and boating conditions are forecast across east central Florida through the remainder of this week and into next week. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding, moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents, and Gale conditions will be possible this weekend and early next week.

- Isolated shower chances along the coast today, with increasing rain and storm chances forecast through Monday. Minor flooding cannot be ruled out due to repeated rounds of showers and the potential for training bands of showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Today-Tonight...A mid-level trough will dig southward across the Florida peninsula today as surface high pressure continues to strengthen across the eastern US while to the south, a stalled front remains draped across the northern Caribbean. The result is a continued tightening pressure gradient across the Florida peninsula, translating to increasing winds locally through today. Northeast winds around 10 mph this morning are forecast to increase to 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times, especially along the coast. These persistent northeasterly winds may be capable of supporting some isolated onshore-moving showers along the coast, though chances remain low (20-30%). The best chances remain focused along the Treasure Coast where PWATs are greatest (1-1.2"), though it is worth noting that drier air aloft may work to suppress development. Towards the interior, rain chances remain below 10% today. Seasonable temperatures are forecast across east central Florida, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows falling into the 60s.

While weather conditions appear favorable overall today, the breezy and gusty northeast winds will result in unfavorable beach and boating conditions. A high risk of rip currents persists at all east central Florida beaches, with rough surf and breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet possible. This rough, pounding surf is anticipated to result in continued beach erosion. Additionally, the return of high astronomical tides begins at the southern beaches, with a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for St. Lucie and Martin county beaches today. Overall, entering the surf is strongly discouraged and caution should be exercised if even planning on going to the beaches, especially during times of high tide (roughly 5-7 AM and PM).

Saturday-Thursday...The high pressure across the eastern US will continue to strengthen through this weekend and into early next week while an area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the stalled boundary draped across the Bahamas. This will lead to a continued tightening of the pressure gradient across east central Florida and therefore, even breezier and gustier conditions are forecast locally. Northeasterly winds increase to 20 to 25 mph this weekend, with gusts of 30 to 45 mph possible at times, especially along the coast. Wind Advisories will likely be needed for at least portions of east central Florida through the weekend, and there is even the potential for these windy conditions to persist into early next week as the low lingers out across the western Atlantic. In addition to the windy conditions, moisture is forecast to gradually increase through the weekend, resulting in higher rain chances across east central Florida. The northeast winds will support onshore-moving showers, and there is a low chance (20-30%) for storm development with some activity. Rain chances will remain highest along the coast (50-80%), with lower rain chances (30-50%) across the interior through Monday. There is a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall outlooked along the coast through Monday, with minor flooding possible due to repeated rounds of showers and training bands that could develop. By Tuesday, guidance indicates the potential for some drier conditions returning to the area and therefore, lower rain chances. Temperatures are anticipated to remain seasonable in the upper 70s to low 80s during the afternoon hours and int he 60s overnight.

High astronomical tides return to the east central Florida coast this weekend and into next week, which unfortunately coincides with this extended period of strong onshore flow. This will lead to prolonged hazardous coastal conditions along the east central Florida coast through this weekend and into next week. Rough, pounding surf from breaking waves of 7 to 15 feet, moderate to major beach erosion, minor to moderate coastal flooding, and a high risk of rip currents are forecast over the next several days. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Saturday, transitioning into a Coastal Flood Watch on Sunday that will likely be extended through early next week. High Surf Advisories will likely be needed beginning late Saturday, continuing into early next week. Overall, conditions will be hazardous and dangerous and entering the surf is STRONGLY discouraged. Even visiting the beach could become hazardous, especially during periods of high tide.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into early next week. A tightening pressure gradient will result in increasingly breezy and windy northeast winds, with sustained winds of 15 to 25 knots today and tonight increasing to 20 to 30 knots Saturday onward. Wind gusts also increase, reaching gale-force by Saturday evening. These increasing winds will cause seas to surge, with 6 to 8 foot seas today reaching a peak of 12 to 15 feet late this weekend into early next week. At this time, forecast winds and seas are slow to subside through next week, resulting in a prolonged period of hazardous boating conditions across the local Atlantic waters. Small Craft Advisories are already in effect for the local waters through Saturday, with Gale Watches expanding from north to south late Saturday into Sunday. Aside from the hazardous boating conditions, rain chances are forecast to increase through this weekend as moisture increases. Low rain chances today (20-40%) increase this weekend and Monday (40-80%). There remains a low chance (20-30%) of storm development with activity.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with north- northeasterly flow. On and off isolated showers cannot be ruled out across the coastal TAF sites SAT AM. Expect north-northeast winds at 10-14kts with gusts up to 18kts-22kts to weaken tonight before increasing SAT after 15Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 79 70 79 / 20 60 70 80 MCO 64 81 69 81 / 10 20 40 50 MLB 68 81 71 81 / 20 30 70 80 VRB 68 83 70 83 / 20 20 70 80 LEE 61 79 68 80 / 0 30 30 20 SFB 63 81 68 81 / 10 40 50 60 ORL 63 82 69 82 / 10 20 50 50 FPR 68 82 70 82 / 20 20 70 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-552.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for AMZ550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AMZ555- 575.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ570-572.