textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Expect another round of scattered showers and storms today, concentrating with 50-60% coverage near and west of Orlando by late afternoon and evening. Localized torrential rainfall amounts exceeding 3", brief wind gusts to around 40-45 mph, and frequent lightning will accompany the strongest storms.

- The High Risk of life-threatening rip currents has been extended through Memorial Day. Continue to refrain from swimming in the Atlantic. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk continues as highs jump into the lower 90s over the interior.

- Storm chances look to decrease on Memorial Day and Tuesday. However, a pattern change is expected by mid to late week, bringing greater coverage of rain and storms to Central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Deep-layer ridging remains entrenched over Florida early on this Sunday morning, with H5 heights approaching the moving climatological maximum for late May (591 dam). Beneath it, seasonably rich moisture continues to be transported over the area courtesy of southeast breezes off the Atlantic. Surface high pressure is anchored near Bermuda, with its axis situated over the Deep South.

The northern hemispheric H5 chart is littered with cut-off features and blocking highs, which act to hold up overall pattern progression. This is fairly commonplace in late spring as the polar jet relaxes and baroclinicity fades. A branch of the subtropical jet will continue to feed energy and moisture from Texas to the Appalachians through the middle of the week. Guidance suggests that the W Atlantic ridge will hold sway and perhaps retrogress toward The Bahamas over the next 2-3 days, increasing its influence over Florida. This should lessen mid-level moisture on Monday and Tuesday as subsidence builds over the peninsula.

Toward the end of the work week, the grand ensemble continues to like the development of an omega block over N America. On its eastern flank, a mid-level trough over New England should sag into the NW Atlantic, suppressing the Bermuda high and sending the surface ridge axis southward. Meanwhile, additional subtropical energy undercutting the omega block is forecast to approach the state, opening the door for a ribbon of deep tropical moisture to surge out of the W Caribbean and toward Florida. By Friday, 23/12Z cluster analysis shows meaningful spread regarding the positioning of subtropical jet stream features and the depth of the trough over the NW Atlantic. While this muddies the details of the extended forecast, the overall setup continues to favor unsettled conditions as May comes to a close.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Through Tonight...

Early this morning, showers and storms continue along the I-4 corridor. The latest flare-up has occurred from near Daytona Beach and points northward. Locally heavy rain and occasional lightning should continue to diminish as we push through the remainder of the overnight.

Little change to the weather pattern is expected through the day. Convection-allowing guidance once again shows a few showers and storms developing on the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes inland from midday into the afternoon, with a potential collision with the Gulf breeze by evening somewhere between Orlando and Tampa. Overall, rain chances today range from 20-40% along I-95 to 60% near and west of Orlando.

As was the case earlier tonight, those who get caught beneath these slow-moving storms will experience torrential rainfall amounts of 2-4" on a localized basis. This can cause minor flooding, especially if it occurs in populated areas. Wind gusts from 40-45 mph, frequent lightning, and small hail can also be expected from the strongest storms. Showers and storms may linger near or especially west of Orlando after sunset. Later in the overnight, HREF members suggest that some showers may brush the coast, so we have deviated from the NBM and added slight rain chances to account for this.

Daytime highs will be hot again today, with upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows tonight will range through the 70s, with some island communities perhaps not falling below 80 deg F. Widespread Moderate (and localized Major) HeatRisk continues. Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C if you feel unwell.

The long fetch of southeast breezes will keep surf at 3-4 ft, prolonging the High Risk of life-threatening rip currents.

Memorial Day - Tuesday...

We still anticipate a bit of a lull in rain/storm coverage during this timeframe, as low as 20-40% even over the interior, as the upper high strengthens and some mid-level drying takes place for a short time. The bigger story will be continued above-normal temperatures and the risk of heat-related illness, especially for those with compromised health.

The High Risk of rip currents has been extended through at least Memorial Day.

Wednesday - Next Weekend...

A trend toward wetter weather still appears on track beginning Wednesday. An uptick in deep moisture will be responsible for greater coverage of showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday. Then, from Friday into next weekend, subtropical energy increases as the ridge collapses, potentially delivering offshore flow to east central Florida. Weak and poorly defined disturbances in the subtropical jet will likely influence daily coverage as well. All told, statistical guidance escalates rain chances from 60-70% on Wed/Thu to 70-90% beginning Friday. For the 72-hour period ending Sunday morning (5/31), there is a 20-40% chance of 2" of rain, with 10-20% chances of 3"+ from Melbourne southward. Locally higher amounts should be anticipated.

Highs in the upper 80s/low 90s late in the work week should settle toward the mid/upper 80s next weekend as cloud cover becomes more prevalent.

MARINE

Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

High pressure continues to dominate the weather over the Western Atlantic. The surface ridge axis remains well north of the local waters through early this week, allowing moderate to occasionally fresh southeast breezes to continue. A few showers and storms are forecast, especially at night and in the morning. Late this week, the surface high may settle toward South Florida, increasing the risk for offshore-moving showers and storms.

Through mid-week, SE winds 12-18 kt with gusts into the 20-23 kt range behind the sea breeze. Seas 3-4 ft nearshore, and up to 5 ft well offshore.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Lingering RA with embedded TSRA affecting several terminals MCO northward should diminish through 08Z. Redevelopment over Lake and Volusia counties has prompted a TEMPO TS for LEE and DAB through 07- 08Z. MVFR CIGs will be possible overnight where heavy rains have occurred earlier. There is also a small chance for Atlc SHRA to push onshore MLB southward overnight and Sun morning. On Sun, the east coast sea breeze should push inland steadily, enhanced by gusty SE winds 20-25kts behind it. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA will develop along the breeze boundary and expect an earlier onset of TSRA at MCO. Currently have VCTS starting at 18Z for MCO but a TEMPO may be included with the next 12Z TAF package roughly 19Z-22Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 77 89 77 / 40 20 20 10 MCO 90 75 90 75 / 60 10 30 10 MLB 88 79 88 79 / 30 20 10 10 VRB 88 79 89 79 / 20 20 10 10 LEE 90 75 91 76 / 70 30 40 20 SFB 91 75 91 76 / 50 10 30 0 ORL 90 76 90 76 / 60 10 30 10 FPR 88 78 88 78 / 20 20 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.