textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

- A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight for north Lake and interior Volusia counties.

- Increased southwest flow and low RH will produce a fire sensitive day Wednesday across interior sections and Volusia county.

- A good chance for showers late Wednesday night into Thursday followed by below normal temperatures into late week; however, a little warmer this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Tonight...Not as cold as previous nights but still chilly with light winds and mostly clear skies. Some stratocu will affect the Treasure coast but dry conditions will prevail. Although freezing temperatures are not forecast, min temps in the low to mid 30s will combine with rising dewpoints to produce areas of frost across north Lake and interior Volusia. As a result, a Frost Advisory has been posted there. More patchy frost will occur over NW Orange, western Seminole, coastal Volusia and rural areas of Osceola and Okeechobee. Temperatures will not be as cold tonight into early Wednesday morning, but will still be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s for many locations.

Wed-Fri...Seasonable temperatures finally return Wed with max temps in the low to mid 70s. However, this will be short-lived as another cold front moves through the area early Thursday. Ahead of and along the front, scattered to numerous showers will develop late Wednesday night into Thursday with PoPs increasing 60-70% across the north and 50% south. While any rainfall will be welcome, rainfall totals look meager, with most likely amounts around a quarter of an inch or less. Some lucky locations may receive up to one half inch. Drier and colder conditions then return behind the front but not as cold as the recent outbreak (or last as long). Min temps are currently forecast to fall to the mid to upper 30s for much of the area Thursday night into Friday morning, with a 30-50% chance for freezing temperatures NW of I-4 and across rural inland areas south of Orlando. Apparent temps (wind chills) will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temps are forecast to remain below normal Friday in the 60s but with full sun. Mins Friday night will recover slightly, holding in the low to mid 40s.

Sat-Mon (modified)...Another front moves through the area early into the weekend, but this boundary looks to remain dry and will be much weaker. Highs currently forecast to be closer to normal, in the 70s, with overnight lows still below normal, in the 40s, through early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Tonight/Wed...High pressure will push east over the Atlc waters and wind flow will develop a south then southwest component 10 knots or less. Will start the forecast with a Caution headline over the southern waters Gulf Stream but seas will subside below 6 ft later this evening. The long period swell will also gradually decrease/shorten in height/period. On Wed, light winds in vicinity of the trailing ridge axis will turn onshore (SE) near the coast behind a sea breeze up to 10 knots. Seas 2-3 ft nearshore and 4 ft offshore primarily from the decaying NE swell.

Thu-Sun...The next cold front crosses the area early Thu and brings a period of showers late Wed night into Thu. Boating conditions will deteriorate once again behind the front during Thu as gusty W/NW winds 20-25 knots offshore, 15-20 knots nearshore. Seas 3-4 ft nearshore due to the offshore flow but build to 7 ft Thu aftn offshore, with fully developed seas of 8-9 ft Thu night. Boating conditions then remain poor to hazardous Friday into Saturday as another front sweeps through Fri night and brings another similar surge of W/NW wind. Wind and wave conditions improve for Sun.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR and dry through the TAF period. Light and variable winds across the interior this afternoon will continue through tonight Northeast winds at 5-8 KT along the coast this afternoon will then become light and variable overnight. Winds then turn south to southwest and increase to 5-8 KT Wednesday around 16/17Z at all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure center over the Florida peninsula will push east over the Atlantic tonight and Wednesday as the next cold front pushes into the deep South. This will turn the wind flow out of the southwest on Wednesday with some increase in surface and transport speeds, producing Very Good to Excellent dispersion values. Near critical RH values around 35 percent across the interior and Volusia county will produce a fire sensitive day where any new or existing fires could spread rapidly.

Scattered to numerous showers will overspread the area late Wednesday night and early Thursday. Rainfall amounts of one tenth to one quarter inch is forecast with locally up to one half inch possible. Winds will turn northwest behind the front by afternoon and become gusty. Very Good to Excellent dispersion will develop once again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 37 71 47 59 / 0 0 60 40 MCO 43 72 51 61 / 0 0 60 40 MLB 42 70 48 63 / 0 0 40 50 VRB 42 72 46 64 / 0 0 20 50 LEE 41 72 48 58 / 0 0 70 30 SFB 41 72 49 60 / 0 0 60 40 ORL 44 72 51 60 / 0 0 60 40 FPR 42 72 46 65 / 0 0 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ041-044.

AM...None.