textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- A high risk of rip currents continues at all central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

- Isolated showers are possible through the day with a very low chance for lightning. Drier conditions return for Friday.

- Windy conditions and increased rain chances arrive this weekend in association with a cold front. Hazardous beach and boating conditions are likely to last into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Today-Friday...Overall drier conditions are in store for the rest of the work week as high pressure settles over the Florida Peninsula. Most of the area is dry early this morning, with the exception of a brief shower that dissipates as quickly as it develops. Temperatures are mild, spanning the 60s to low 70s. Today will feature a mix of clouds and sunshine, though isolated showers cannot be ruled out as the sea breeze pushes inland this afternoon. Limited moisture concentrated around the 850mb level and dry air above/below this level will limit the development of organized convection. The forecast maintains a 15-20 percent chance of rain, mainly north of Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. The sea breeze should clear out clouds along the coast and keep temps there a few degrees cooler (upper 70s) with inland locations reaching the low/mid 80s.

Even warmer daytime temperatures are expected Friday as high pressure becomes centered over the peninsula and adjacent Atlantic waters. If you are looking to get outside and enjoy some pleasant springtime weather, Friday is that day. Winds stay light all day with only a light wind developing as the sea breeze migrates inland again in the afternoon. Overnight lows both Thursday and Friday night settle into the 60s for most, running a few degrees above normal for late March.

Saturday-Sunday...Changes are in store this weekend as a cold front quickly presses south Saturday, bringing windy and hazardous beach conditions and the chance for showers/isolated storms. High pressure quickly breaks down locally, though dry conditions should last through Saturday morning for most. A ribbon of higher moisture is anticipated along and just behind the front, helping to saturate the lower levels late Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Rain chances climb from 20-40 percent in the afternoon to around 60-65 percent, mainly along the coast south of Cape Canaveral Saturday night. Rain chances gradually shift south on Sunday with total rain amounts highest along the Treasure Coast (around 1-1.25").

It will be windy over much of the area by Saturday afternoon with frequent gusts reaching 20-30 mph. In fact, areas north of Orlando and particularly closer to the coast may experience 30-40 mph gusts during the afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory may be considered for these areas in future updates. Life-threatening rip currents and very rough surf will exist at area beaches, so entering the water will be strongly discouraged.

Temperatures will be at their warmest Saturday, ranging from the upper 70s north to the mid 80s Orlando southward. Cooler air and more clouds spill in on Sunday with highs only reaching the low to mid 70s, staying slightly below normal.

Monday-Wednesday...Coastal showers remain possible Monday and Tuesday as breezy but significantly less gusty onshore flow persists. These coastal showers may occasionally move farther inland during the daytime. High pressure becomes well established through mid week, allowing temperatures to slowly rebound each day, reaching the low to mid 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

High pressure gradually builds over the local waters today and Friday, maintaining light east-southeast winds (less than 15 knots). Lingering moisture will support isolated to scattered showers and a brief lightning storm, with chances tapering off this afternoon and evening. Seas 3-5 feet today, decreasing to 2-4 feet Friday.

A strong cold front arrives Saturday with rapidly building winds and seas. Hazardous to dangerous conditions are forecast to develop from north to south Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, lasting into early next week. Near gale-force northeast winds build seas as high as 10-15 feet Saturday night into early Sunday morning. East winds decrease to 20-25+ knots Sunday and eventually to 15-20 knots Monday. Elevated seas of 6-9 feet linger through Monday as high pressure is reestablished.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Isolated showers are developing along and inland of the east coast sea breeze. Have included VCSH for KDAB/KTIX through 20Z and for inland TAF sites (KMCO/KISM/KSFB/KLEE) through 22-00Z. Coverage not high enough to include any tempo groups, but will monitor should any be needed for brief IFR/MVFR conditions from this activity. Can't rule out a storm or two, but modest instability and weak lapse rates keeps potential for lightning low (10% or less).

Otherwise VFR conditions forecast. May see patchy fog develop late tonight through early morning Friday (mainly between 8-13Z), but confidence not high enough to include any tempo cig/vis reductions in the TAFs this package.

Easterly winds increase up to 8-12 knots behind the sea breeze as it moves inland, and then winds become light and variable this evening and overnight. The east coast sea breeze will then develop again tomorrow afternoon, increasing winds out of the east again around 8-12 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 62 84 62 78 / 0 10 0 40 MCO 64 87 65 85 / 0 10 0 30 MLB 64 82 64 81 / 0 10 0 40 VRB 63 83 63 83 / 0 10 0 40 LEE 64 87 63 80 / 0 10 0 20 SFB 63 87 64 81 / 0 10 0 30 ORL 65 87 66 82 / 0 10 0 30 FPR 62 83 62 83 / 0 10 0 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for AMZ550-570.

Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for AMZ552-572.