textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- High risk of rip currents continues at area beaches; entering the water is strongly discouraged.

- Isolated to scattered showers possible each day with isolated storms possible, particularly Thursday onward. A higher chance for rain arrives with a cold front early next week.

- A return of poor to hazardous boating conditions is forecast starting Thursday and will continue through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Now-Tonight...Another afternoon with onshore flow is under way with some clouds and intermittent, isolated showers. Shower activity that was dissipating as it reached the coast this morning is now moving more inland as the sea breeze treks westward. GOES PW imagery indicates drier air over the Atlantic, and this is expected to reach our area later this afternoon. Forecast soundings show some of this drier air impinging on the more moist 850-700mb layer. As a result, we maintain a 15-20% chance of showers moving inland through the mid to late afternoon with lesser activity at the coast. Some of that drier air should start to inhibit shower development early in the evening. Much of tonight is forecast to remain dry, even over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Temperatures will settle into the 60s for most as easterly flow persists.

Thursday-Tuesday (modified)...No significant changes to the overall pattern are forecast through the weekend as a center of high pressure remains situated well north and east of the area. Onshore flow continues, locally enhanced each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, with conditions becoming gusty at times along the immediate coast. Moisture increases south to north on Thursday, resulting in rain chances increasing to 30-50% (60% well inland). The chance for lightning storms returns Thursday, too, as instability values tick up. By this weekend, PW values trend slightly lower with rain chances around 20-35% Friday through Sunday. Temperatures trend warmer late week into the weekend with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across the interior. The onshore flow and east coast sea breeze will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Lows are forecast to remain in the 60s.

Ridging breaks down early Monday as a cold front approaches from the north. There are still a number of differences in model solutions, regarding timing of the front, if it does or does not make a complete passage through the area, and how much moisture lingers over east-central Florida Monday night into Tuesday. Some guidance also points to a stronger H5 shortwave, compared to other solutions that provide provide weaker support for precipitation. In general, rain chances do increase gradually Monday and into Tuesday, particularly across the southern two-thirds of our area on Tuesday. This is where the highest PW values remain concentrated (1.5-1.7") for the longest amount of time. Since this is still several days out, there will be timing and rain chance adjustments as guidance comes into better agreement. Winds finally break from the onshore flow and become more north-northwesterly ahead of the front, turning northeasterly behind the front. Afternoon highs will trend cooler Tuesday and Wednesday, returning to near-normal values for early April. Lows will also trend cooler, with the coolest temperatures focused near and north of the I-4 corridor and across rural portions of Osceola and Okeechobee counties.

MARINE

Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Mostly favorable boating conditions will last through this evening and tonight until east-southeast winds freshen Thursday morning. High pressure maintains east-to-west flow 12-20 kt into the weekend before slackening a bit on Sunday. Poor to hazardous boating conditions return Thursday into Thursday night as seas gradually build to 5-6 ft nearshore and 7 ft offshore. These elevated wave heights are forecast through Saturday night before the pressure gradient briefly weakens wind speeds (and therefore, seas) on Sunday. Seas fall to 3-5 ft Sunday afternoon and night. A stronger cold front arrives Monday into early Tuesday, promising an increase in northeasterly winds and building seas early in the week.

Isolated to scattered showers are forecast each day with chances maximized from mid morning through the afternoon hours. A lightning storm or two becomes possible Thursday onward as instability over the local Atlantic slowly increases.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Widely scattered showers moving in along the coast and pushing inland this afternoon. Currently, no lightning storms have developed, but it is possible that a lightning storm or two may develop later this afternoon. Have included VCSH through 20/21Z for all sites except DAB. No TEMPOs have been included at this time, but will amend as necessary. Activity will diminish into this evening, with a shower or two remaining possible along the coast overnight. Confidence isn't high enough to include VC wording though. Isolated to scattered showers will pick back up along the coast Thursday morning, with storms possible late morning. Shower and storm activity will then transition across the interior Thursday afternoon (around 18Z). ESE winds 10-15 KT with gusts 15-20 KT this afternoon will diminish to 5-10 KT overnight before increasing to 8-12 KT by mid-morning. ESE winds will then increase to around 15 KT along the coast with gusts 20-25 KT by late morning/early afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 81 67 82 / 10 30 10 20 MCO 64 83 68 85 / 0 40 10 30 MLB 67 81 69 81 / 10 40 10 20 VRB 66 81 68 82 / 20 40 20 20 LEE 63 85 67 86 / 0 40 10 30 SFB 63 84 67 85 / 0 40 10 20 ORL 64 83 68 85 / 0 40 10 20 FPR 65 81 67 82 / 20 30 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.