textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

- Beneficial rainfall is expected each day through early next week, mainly in the afternoons. However, multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall over the same areas could lead to increasing flooding concerns.

- Coverage of showers and storms will be highest near the coast, as southwesterly to westerly flow opposes the east coast sea breeze.

- The High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues today at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Scattered showers and storms have already begun pushing NE into the forecast area prior to 2 PM. Expect coverage to increase over the next several hours (PoPs 60-80%), with ample moisture (PWATs 2.2-2.3") and convective initiation along ongoing outflow boundaries. A majority of convection is forecast to develop along the east coast sea breeze, generally east of Orlando, later this afternoon. CAMs then maintain these showers and storms through much of the evening hours as they slowly drift offshore at around 10 mph. The main threats with any storms will be lightning strikes, gusty winds near 45 mph, and locally heavy rainfall around 3". A Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall continues across southern portions of the area. As showers and storms push offshore through the evening hours, drier conditions then develop overnight, with light offshore flow. Overnight lows are forecast in the lower to mid-70s.

Friday-Sunday...With elongated ridging stretched across the Straits of Florida and the northern Carribean, southwesterly to westerly flow prevails through the weekend. This will lead to a continued weak or pinned east coast sea breeze each day, though winds stay around 10 mph or less. Deep tropical moisture remains in place most days, with the exception of some slight drying Saturday, as a couple of shortwaves pass aloft. Therefore, this regime promotes persistent high coverage of showers and storms (60-80%) for at least portions, if not all, of the local area each day afternoon. Widespread accumulations of 1.5-2.5", with isolated totals in excess of 3" are forecast through the weekend. Should thunderstorms linger over the same areas multiple days in a row, flooding concerns may develop, especially for urban areas. Peeks of sun prior to the afternoon convective period will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Although, high humidity will lead to heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100.

Monday-Thursday...Weak high pressure remains south of the local area through early next week, held in place by a cool front dropping through the southern US. As the front approaches the Florida peninsula, it is forecast to slow, stalling at times into mid- week. Where this front stalls and how far southward it makes it are still a bit uncertain. However, there is generally good agreement among the models this afternoon that it will at least make it to central Florida before stalling. Regardless, deep moisture (PWATs near 2") looks to persist along the boundary, with possible opposing flow through the column. Therefore, there is higher confidence in continuing numerous to widespread (60-80%) coverage of showers and storms, especially in the afternoons. Rainfall amounts and where they fall will be dependent on the boundary, though daily widespread accumulations of 1+" are possible. Will need to monitor accumulations from thunderstorms through this weekend and their effect on the flooding threat into next week. Temperatures look to cool slightly into the mid-80s for highs and lower 70s for lows by the end of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Overall, favorable boating conditions continue through the period. High pressure drifting south of the local area today will linger there into early next week, maintaining offshore flow around 15 kts or less. Will see winds back south to southeasterly near the coast in the afternoons as the sea breeze develops, but remains near or pinned to the coast. High coverage of showers and storms is forecast to continue, mainly during the afternoons. Convection is then expected to drift offshore through the evening hours, occasionally leading to abrupt local increases in winds and seas. Seas 1-3 ft through this weekend will build to up to 3-5 ft early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

SCT-WIDE TSRA impacts expected at most ECFL terminals this afternoon-evening. Both east and west coast sea breezes are already active, the former pinned near the coast in S-SW flow, favoring a sea breeze collision on the eastern side of the peninsula. Highest chances for TSRA at KTIX-KSUA, and could see prolonged impacts through 02Z-04Z, before diminishing/pushing offshore. Lower coverage/confidence for TSRA at KMCO/other inland terminals and KDAB, but forecast trends continue to signal greatest impacts generally between 20Z-23Z, and there is potential for earlier arrival. Flow expected to usher this activity east of inland terminals by around 23Z, but could linger at KDAB until around 03Z. Generally dry/quiet through Friday morning once convection clears. SW-W flow and very high moisture Friday will again favor early start to SHRA, and high coverage of afternoon-evening TSRA INVOF of the ECFL terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 88 73 88 / 40 80 30 70 MCO 73 89 74 88 / 40 50 20 60 MLB 75 88 75 89 / 50 70 30 60 VRB 73 89 74 89 / 50 70 30 40 LEE 74 90 75 88 / 20 50 20 50 SFB 74 91 74 89 / 30 60 20 70 ORL 75 89 75 88 / 30 60 20 60 FPR 73 88 73 88 / 60 70 40 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.