textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

- A Freeze Warning and a Cold Weather Advisory remain in effect across portions of east central Florida through 9 AM. If heading outside, dress appropriately for the cold weather.

- Dry conditions are forecast over the next couple of days, with a return of low (20-30%) rain chances late this week.

- Temperatures are anticipated to trend warmer through the forecast period, returning to near and even above normal values by late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

This Morning...Temperatures continue to fall across east central Florida as a cold, dry air mass sinks southward across the area. Morning low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 30s across most of the area, with below-freezing temperatures forecast across northern portions of the forecast area. A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9 AM for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Volusia counties. Breezy northwest winds have also persisted this morning, resulting in it feeling even colder than it is. Wind chill values remain on track to fall into the mid 20s to low 30s areawide, and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for all east central Florida zones excluding coastal Martin County until 9 AM. If heading out early this morning, be sure to wear a warm jacket and safely utilize space heaters if needed.

Today-Tonight...Quasi-zonal flow aloft is forecast to develop across the Florida region today behind strong troughing lifting northeastward across the Atlantic. This will allow surface high pressure to build across the southeastern US and Gulf today, with the ridge axis extending eastward across central Florida. With the center of the high stationed to the west, north to northwest winds are forecast locally, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph anticipated areawide. This northerly flow will continue to advect drier air towards the peninsula through today, keeping rain chances near-zero across east central Florida. After a cold start to this morning, temperatures gradually warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s, with the warmer temperatures focused across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Tonight, dry conditions persist and winds become lighter around 5 to 10 mph, increasing the potential for some patchy frost development across rural areas of east central Florida (northern Lake/Volusia and central Osceola). Overnight temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s across a majority of the interior west of I-95, with lows in the 40s forecast along the coast. With winds becoming a bit lighter, wind chill values are forecast to fall into the low 30s across interior portions of east central Florida, especially the rural regions. Values based on the current forecast are borderline for hitting Cold Weather Advisory criteria, though ensemble guidance is hinting at a 50% chance of hitting criteria across areas near and north of the I-4 corridor. Given there remains some uncertainty, have opted to hold off on issuance for now but will continue to closely monitor trends through today.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The surface high will slowly shift northeastward early this week, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday and shifting offshore across the Atlantic. With the high in proximity of Florida through the middle of this week, rain chances are forecast to remain near-zero through at least Wednesday. As the high lifts north of the area, winds will slowly shift to out of the east, resulting in advection of moisture from the Atlantic. PWATs recover to right around 1" on Wednesday, with a return of partly to mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Some isolated to scattered shower development across the local Atlantic waters cannot be ruled out late Wednesday into Wednesday night as moisture increases. As far as temperatures go, a warming trend is anticipated into the middle of the week, with values return to near and even above normal values for this time of year. Highs Tuesday reach the low 60s to low 70s and by Wednesday are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s areawide. Cooler temperatures will persist Tuesday night near and north of the I-4 corridor as lows fall into the 40s, but near-normal lows are forecast across the remainder of the area, warming into the 50s to low 60s areawide on Wednesday night.

Thursday-Sunday...As the surface high weakens across the Atlantic mid-week, the local pattern becomes a bit more convoluted, especially given inconsistencies between long-range guidance. There does remain a good deal of uncertainty with the extended forecast, especially timing, so would advise to continue checking the forecast over the next few days as guidance comes into better agreement.

A weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop near the Bahamas late this week, eventually washing out into a weak, nearly stationary boundary across the Atlantic that will extend towards the Florida peninsula. Locally, northeast flow is anticipated to continue advecting moisture towards the area and when coupled with some energy aloft traversing the peninsula on Thursday, will lead to a low chance (20-30%) for shower development across the area. By Friday, lingering moisture along the boundary and onshore flow will favor another day with low chances for showers, especially along the coast. Heading into the weekend, conditions trend drier into Saturday before rain looks to reenter the forecast on Sunday across northern portions of east central Florida as another cold front begins its approach towards the area. Temperatures are anticipated to continue warming through the extended forecast, reaching above normal values areawide late this week into the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to gradually improve throughout today as winds subside below 20 knots and seas fall below 7 feet. However, persistent northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 knots, occasionally 15 to 20 knots at times, will help seas maintain a 4 to 6 foot wave height through most of this week. In summary, poor boating conditions are anticipated to persist across the local Atlantic waters, and small craft will likely need to exercise caution all week, especially across the offshore waters. Dry conditions are forecast through at least Wednesday morning, with a return of 30-50% rain chances across the waters Wednesday afternoon through at least Friday. Storms are not anticipated with this activity.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1201 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Post-frontal, with improving skies - though some TEMPO MVFR CIGs working thru the area. NWRLY winds near 10 kts and gusty along the Space/Treasure coasts. These winds continue into Mon, with diminishing speeds late in day/early evening as high pressure builds in with MSunny skies.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are anticipated today across east central Florida, especially across the interior west of I-95. Dry air will cause minimum RH values to fall below 35% across a majority of the interior, with values forecast to fall as low as 25% in some spots. Additionally, northeast winds will remain breezy at times throughout today, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph forecast. Tuesday, minimum RH values are forecast to improve, though there is a low chance of values falling below 35% north of the I-4 corridor. Overall, conditions will be borderline critical thresholds in some spots the next couple of days. Conditions are anticipated to improve by the middle of this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 57 39 60 48 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 58 40 64 48 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 60 44 67 55 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 62 45 69 56 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 58 36 61 43 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 58 38 62 47 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 58 39 63 48 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 63 45 70 56 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046- 053-141-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555- 572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570.