textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms forecast across the East Central Florida interior this afternoon and evening. Storms could produce frequent lightning strikes, strong to locally damaging winds, small hail, and torrential downpours.

- Forecast continues to trend towards near to slightly above normal rain chances through the rest of the week. Forecast confidence decreases for early next week, but storms and above normal heat remain on tap.

- Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the forecast period, and Extreme impacts are possible early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today-Tonight...Troughing continues over the eastern US in response to a ridge over the Desert Southwest. Ribbons of vorticity transiting the pattern have amplified the trough some, pushing the base south over the Florida peninsula, but upper level support for deep convection may dwindle as the day goes on between the ridge axis already pushing offshore the east coast, and the trough gradually weakening. Guidance continues to stick to the latest trend, keeping the approaching weak front and drier air near the boundary over North Florida, and near to slightly below normal moisture over Central Florida. Notably, more moisture is in the 850-700mb layer, which had been lacking the last couple day and limiting rain chances. Weak offshore (WSW-SW) flow north of the surface ridge axis will enhance the west coast sea breeze and slow the east coast sea breeze, resulting in a collision and scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms from near Lake George to Orlando and to Lake Okeechobee in the late evening. Prior to the collision, initially isolated showers and storms will develop on the sea breezes in the early afternoon, gradually increasing in coverage until the collision. Westerly steering flow will push storms back towards the coast into the late evening and early overnight before dissipating or moving offshore. Guidance shows slight warming aloft as the trough departs and weakens (T500 around -7C), but still copious instability (MUCAPE 2,000-3,000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates (7-9 C/km). Shear remains weak at 20 kts or less, but low-level veering on boundaries could provide some enhancement. Still some dry air present in the mid- upper levels that could enhance downdrafts (DCAPE +800 J/kg). Overall, primary storm hazards continue to be wind gusts 40-55 mph, with a very low chance (<5%) for isolated damaging gusts to 60 mph, hail up to 1", frequent to excessive lightning, and torrential downpours. Better steering flow reduces the risk of flooding some, but multiple boundary collisions could cause slow/erratic storm motion, and locally high rainfall amounts of 2-3" leading to minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

Technically a little less hot than yesterday, but won't really feel like it. High temperatures in the L-M90s combined with humidity will result in muggy heat afternoon heat indices 100-105, and widespread Moderate HeatRisk impacts with patches of Major in the urban interior and parts of the southern coastal corridor.

Thursday-Friday...A trough swinging into the Pacific Northwest flattens the ridge over the Desert Southwest, causing the trough over the eastern US to weaken, and opening the door for high pressure to fill over Florida from the western Atlantic. The weak front departs north Thursday, allowing the surface ridge axis from the Atlantic high to lift into Central Florida. Flow remains generally offshore, but may become more southerly and light at times, especially by Friday. Still some uncertainty where drier air near the front will be come Thursday, but forecast trends are to keep the driest air mostly north of the area and near normal moisture over the Florida peninsula. The GFS still has PWATs down to 1.4" along and north of I-4 Thursday, but suspect these are too low and contaminating the PoPs. Current forecast calls for 20-50% rain chances, highest to the south, but wouldn't be surprised if these increased in the next cycle or two. Highest rain chances gradually march west over the interior each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze is able to push farther inland as the offshore flow weakens. Heat starts to creep back up, with high temperatures getting closer to the M90s along the coast an U90s inland. Peak afternoon heat indices 102-107 just shy of Heat Advisory. Major HeatRisk impacts gradually overtake Moderate, especially over the urban interior.

Saturday-Tuesday...An upper-level blocking pattern develops over the CONUS with Florida under the southeast flank of a ridge building over the Central-Eastern US. At the surface the weak ridge axis from the Atlantic high over Central Florida drops back south through the weekend in response to a developing low pressure system to the north. There is a fair amount of uncertainty how the front associated with this low will evolve, with some model solutions pushing it down towards Northeast to East Central Florida as a weak backdoor front early next week, then attempting to develop disturbances on the stalled boundary. With or without the front, the pressure gradient is very loose, resulting in light and variable flow that gives way to the sea breezes in the afternoon and evenings. This will favor collisions over the spine of the peninsula. Flow regime may switch to onshore going into mid to late week. Ensemble mean moisture is generally near normal through the period, resulting in near to slightly above normal rain chances most days, occasionally upset by drier air aloft knocking chances below normal (mainly Sunday at this juncture). Highest chances along the sea breeze collision in the evenings over the interior, pushing farther west if flow becomes more easterly. Enough variation in forecast temperatures and moisture that confidence in heat impacts are still low, but trends remain very close to Heat Advisory criteria and will need to be closely monitored. Current forecast calls for above normal heat with high temperatures in the L-M90s, pushing towards the U90s inland through Monday, resulting in peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits.

MARINE

Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today-Sunday...Generally favorable boating conditions outside of offshore moving lightning storms. A weak front dropping into North Florida today keeps the ridge axis of the Atlantic high suppressed over South Florida through Thursday, continuing offshore (WSW-SW) through most of Thursday. The front then departs allowing the ridge axis to lift north into Central Florida Friday and Saturday, shifting light flow more southerly at times but generally remaining offshore. Another low pressure system developing on the residual front over the Deep South and southeast seaboard shunts the ridge axis south again, and the weak front associated with the low may drop south towards or into the local Atlantic waters early next week. Winds back onshore (E-SE) from the afternoons into the early overnights each day as the sea breeze develops. Wind speeds generally 5-15 kts, occasionally ticking over 15 kts offshore in the early overnights. Seas 1-2 ft. Highest chances for offshore moving showers and lightning storms today and Thursday, then chances decrease Friday going into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR is forecast outside of storms with high pressure (~1021mb) over the GOM. W winds are expected to back ESE in the aftn/eve before becoming light & variable overnight. TAFs begin with VCTS and PROB30/TEMPO groups for TSRA through 00Z/01Z w/ the potential for a few strong to severe storms. Dry conditions are expected overnight before TSRA returns THU aftn/eve, mainly after 18Z/19Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 93 75 93 / 40 40 30 30 MCO 76 95 76 95 / 40 50 30 40 MLB 76 91 77 91 / 20 40 30 30 VRB 75 92 77 92 / 20 40 20 30 LEE 76 95 77 95 / 40 50 20 40 SFB 76 95 76 96 / 40 50 30 40 ORL 76 94 77 95 / 40 50 30 40 FPR 75 92 76 91 / 20 40 20 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.