textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 158 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

- High pressure builds this week with increasing warm and dry conditions. Near record highs possible Friday and Saturday.

- An increasing high rip current threat is expected through late week with building swell impacting local beaches. Always swim near a life-guarded beach and never enter the water alone. Entering the chilly surf will be strongly discouraged for much of this week!

- With the increasing long period swell, boaters will need to Exercise Caution at inlets this week due to Hazardous conditions surrounding the twice daily outgoing tide.

- Low to medium (30-40pct) rain chances and low (20pct) lightning storm chances forecast on Sunday as the next cold front passes central Florida. A significant cool-down is expected early next week behind this latest front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Current-Tonight...South to southwest winds 10-15 mph "backing" ESE/SE along the coast this afternoon with sea breeze formation. Temperatures above climo in the U70s at the coast with values near 80 to L80s into the interior. Western Okeechobee County may realize M80s for maxes. Light winds tonight returning to an offshore component areawide. Continued dry conditions with PSunny skies. Biggest challenge this period will be potential fog/low (stratus) cloud development overnight into early Thu morning. Sea fog along the west coast tonight may advect into portions of ECFL late overnight and will likely see some low cloud formation as well over portions of the coverage warning area - especially the I-4 corridor. Have included patchy (dense) fog in the grids/zones across much of the area. Motorists should stay alert for sudden changes in visibility early Thu morning. Overnight mins mild in the U50s with a few L60s sprinkled in near larger metropolitan areas and perhaps along the immediate Treasure Coast/barrier islands.

Thu-Sat...Surface high pressure across the western Atlc continues to push further seaward with associated ridge axis across the south- central FL peninsula. The next cold front will slide southward into north FL by sunrise Sun morning. Mainly dry conditions and increasing temperatures will continue, though a low (20pct) rain chance will be forecast late Sat overnight across portions of Lake/Volusia counties ahead of the approaching boundary.

SW/W flow on Thu-Sat, will "back" onshore each afternoon along the coast with sea breeze formation. Highs in the L80s (perhaps M80s Fri/Sat) each afternoon along the coast with M-U80s into the interior. Near record highs forecast on Fri/Sat especially across interior locations. Lows continue in the U50s to L60s. Expect increasing drought and fire weather sensitivities to continue. There will be patchy to areas of (dense) fog potential in the overnight and early morning periods thru late week.

Sun-Wed...Mid/upper level troughing across the eastern CONUS will force a strong cold front southward through central FL during the day on Sun. This will usher in much colder/drier conditions for early next week. We continue to carry a medium (30-40pct) rain chance and have added a low (20pct) lightning storm chance for the day on Sun. Again, only brief light to moderate rainfall is expected with this system and will not put much if any dent into the current drought conditions. West to northwest winds likely to be breezy/gusty on Sun.

Highs on Sun in the U70s to around 80F along/north of I-4 with L- M80s southward. Mon/Tue highs mainly in the L-M60s and may struggle into the U50s to around 60F across portions of Volusia/north Brevard counties. Temperatures moderate on Wed into the L-M70s for most. Lows drop Mon morning into the 40s areawide - lowest in L40s to around 40F across north Lake/north Volusia counties. Tue morning is expected to be the coldest in the extended with mins in the M-U30s now for much of ECFL. Near 40F to L40s for much of the coast & Orlando Metro with barrier islands in the M-U40s. Winds will remain elevated Sun overnight with lowest min wind chills/apparent temps Mon morning in the M-U30s to L40s areawide - highest southward and near the Treasure Coast. Lowest wind chills overnight Mon into Tue morning are forecast in the U20s to M30s for most.

MARINE

Issued at 158 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Southerly winds 10-15 kts, with persistent NE northeast swell keeping seas elevated 5-6 ft thru tonight in the Gulf Stream and 3-5 ft elsewhere. From Thu into Sat, we will see a repeated cycle of offshore (SW/W) winds except for "backing" along the coast each afternoon-early evening with sea breeze formation. Speeds continue 10-15 kts but may see short durations of up to 15-18 kts offshore at times. Seas generally 3-5 ft thru Thu night subsiding to 2-4 ft into Fri evening, then AOB 3 ft thru Sat evening. Both winds/seas begin to ramp up thru the day on Sun/Sun night with approach/passage of a strong cold front. Gale conditions may be met Sun night into early Mon. Conditions will remain hazardous for boating into early next week.

Generally dry thru Sat with slight rain chances Sat night (north). SCT rain chances with ISOLD lightning storm chances areawide on Sun with accompanying front.

Hazardous conditions will exist this week at inlets during the twice daily outgoing tide. Small craft boaters will need to Exercise Caution here.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Dry, VFR conditions persist across the terminals through the remainder of this afternoon into the evening hours. SW winds across the interior and SE winds along the coast persist around 10 knots, becoming lighter out of the SSW overnight around 5 knots. Stratus and sea fog expanding eastward from the Gulf will lead to the potential for decreasing VIS and CIG after 09Z, especially across the interior. At this time, LEE has the best chance of seeing these reductions, so maintained a prevailing MVFR line. TEMPOs will likely be needed at LEE for IFR reductions and at MCO and the other interior terminals for at least MVFR reductions, but it was simply too far out to add them in at this time. VIS and CIGs are anticipated to improve after 15Z with winds picking up out of the SSW around 10 knots once again into Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Building high pressure will continue a warm and drying trend into late week, increasing min RH sensitivities. South to southwest flow will persist, generally remaining 10 mph or less. Slightly higher winds along the coast as a sea breeze develops each day. Increasing temperatures and mixing heights will contribute to Very Good smoke dispersion this week, especially over the interior. The next strong cold front is forecast to pass the area Sunday, bringing a low to medium (30-40%) rain chance and low (20%) lightning storm chance. Breezy/gusty west to northwest winds will be likely on Sunday ahead of the front. Much cooler and drier conditions are forecast for early next week with increasing low min RH concerns.

Patchy (locally dense) fog is forecast across much of east central Florida overnight into early Thursday morning with conditions remaining favorable for fog or low stratus cloud development, again, each night and early morning through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 58 81 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 84 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 58 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 58 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 59 84 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 61 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 57 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.