textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Breezy/gusty west winds Monday will suppress the east coast sea breeze. Rain/storm chances increase Tuesday with a risk of marginally severe storms (level 1/5) containing damaging winds. - A Moderate risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches; always swim near a lifeguard!

- The pattern is forecast to shift late this week as a cold front moves southward across the peninsula, bringing drier air, lower temperatures, and deteriorating boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Thru Tonight...Earlier start to diurnal convection this afternoon and somewhat higher coverage as it pushes east across central FL. KMLB Doppler Radar shows the east coast sea breeze has formed along the entire coast but inland progress is very slow. Have increased rain chances late this afternoon and early this evening along the coast as a boost in storm coverage and intensity is expected as these storms collide with the sea breeze boundary. Gusty winds up to 50-55 mph and frequent lightning will be the primary storm threats. Marine warnings are likely from the Cape south for boaters on the Intracoastal and Atlantic waters.

Mon-Tue...Weak, non-tropical low pressure will push offshore the Georgia/South Carolina border Monday and this will increase our westerly flow. The offshore flow looks strong enough (~20 knots at 850 mb) to prevent the sea breeze from forming, except perhaps along the Treasure coast where it would stay pinned. This should set up a hot day even at the coast with temperatures reaching the lower 90s and possibly mid 90s if enough heating occurs though forecast model soundings show considerable mid level cloudiness. Rain/storm chances will be 40-60%, highest across the north on Monday.

The offshore flow decreases Tue as low pressure pulls away and a trailing frontal boundary approaches from the north. So a sea breeze is likely to develop Tue aftn. In addition, some cooling aloft and steepening lase rates combined with continued deep moisture will present a Marginal risk of severe storms with the primary threat being damaging wind Tue aftn. Rain/storm chances will be highest on Tue with 60-70% areawide, primarily in the afternoon and evening as the westerly steering flow brings storms across the coast and offshore. Peak heat indices both days will reach the upper 90s to low 100s.

Wed-Sat...Another non-tropical low is anticipated to develop offshore NC which will push the frontal boundary southward across central FL Wed. As a result, breezy NE winds will bring high temperatures down into the mid 80s, even low 80s along the Volusia coast. But this will be short-lived as high pressure settles across the Florida peninsula and allows temperatures to warm back into the upper 80s to low 90s next weekend. Rain chances this period are highest on Wednesday with 40% north and 70% south. Model guidance is in good agreement bringing much drier air into the area late week, significantly reducing rain chances.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

West to northwest flow will persist around 10 to 15 knots across the local waters through at least Tuesday, keeping boating conditions generally favorable early this week. Seas are forecast to remain between 2 to 5 feet, with the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon through the overnight hours, with the strongest storms capable of producing cloud-to- water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and locally higher seas. Activity will diminish late at night into the early morning hours.

The pattern shifts on Wednesday as a cold front moves southward across the local waters, causing winds to shift to out of the north- northeast at 15 to 25 knots. Poor boating conditions develop Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with seas building up to 9 feet briefly in the Gulf Stream and 5-7 FT nearshore. So Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. The northeast winds will gradually veer more easterly and decrease 10-15 knots Thursday-Friday. Seas will fall below 6 FT on Fri in the Gulf Stream with 4-5 FT nearshore. Drier air filtering in from the north will help decrease rain chances from Thursday onward, though isolated development, especially across the southern waters, cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

TS INVOF KDAB-KTIX should slip south/offshore in the next few hours. A few SHRA/TSRA inland of KVRB-KSUA could reach the coastal terminals by 04Z, before dissipating or moving offshore. Mostly quiet conditions the rest of the night save, save for a passing quick -SHRA. Offshore winds become light and VRB at times overnight, then pick back up to 7-13 kts with higher gusts Monday. The east coat breeze will likely to be pinned near to offshore most if not all the coast. Another early start to SHRA likely Monday, but offshore flow should push most if not all TS east of the terminals fairly quickly. Mainly ISO coverage forecast INVOF inland terminals, becoming more SCT along the coast. Locations where the sea breeze can make an inland push will be favored for TS development.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 89 75 89 / 20 60 20 70 MCO 75 90 76 90 / 20 50 10 70 MLB 77 91 77 90 / 30 50 20 70 VRB 75 91 76 90 / 20 50 20 70 LEE 77 90 77 91 / 10 50 30 60 SFB 76 91 76 92 / 20 60 20 70 ORL 76 90 77 91 / 10 50 10 70 FPR 75 90 76 89 / 20 50 20 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.