textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

- Much colder air has returned to Florida. Prepare for early morning wind chills in the mid 20s to low 30s through Thursday. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for many locations this morning and again on Wednesday morning. Residents and visitors should wear appropriate winter clothing and protect their pets from the cold.

- The greatest risk for freezing temperatures is over outlying communities and rural locations through Thursday morning. A Freeze Warning expands to include Greater Orlando, Osceola County, and points northward early Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch encompasses the same area, plus Okeechobee County, on Thursday morning. Consider covering tender plants or bringing them inside, if possible.

- Confidence continues to grow that a significant, rare cold air outbreak and major freeze threatens east Central Florida this weekend. The most likely forecast is for low temperatures in the 20s and wind chills in the teens for much of the area by Sunday morning.

- Hazardous boating conditions persist today, improving by tonight. There is a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

In tandem with a shortwave trough over the Carolinas, a strong surface cold front has moved well east of Florida early this morning. Behind it comes a 1040 hPa continental high-pressure center, currently over Louisiana. According to RAP mesoanalysis, 3-hourly pressure tendencies of around +6 hPa are occurring over the Florida Peninsula. The Kennedy Space Center 915 MHz profiler indicates that boundary-layer northwesterly winds of 30 to 40 knots are occurring just off the surface. Strong cold advection is well underway, as H85 (5kft) T's are forecast to drop to around +1 to +4 deg C by daybreak.

Courtesy of continued high-latitude blocking (-AO/-NAO), the polar vortex remains displaced near James Bay, Canada. Through the next 72 hours, it is forecast to elongate as it moves slightly southward, extending from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada by early Friday. In the broad northwesterly flow beneath this feature, a ripple of Pacific energy will quickly pass from near Idaho this morning to over Florida late Wednesday. This should act to reinforce the colder temperature anomalies over the Southeast U.S. through the work week, with essentially neutral thermal advection through Thursday. As the mid-level flow becomes WSW on Friday, some slight warming is expected.

By late Friday, the 26/12Z ensemble suite places the western extent of the polar vortex near Chicago. Weak speed maxes in the Polar (mid-latitude) jet immediately to its south, in concert with the sharpening ridge over the West, should act to pull the Arctic jet southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley by early Saturday. As it approaches the Southeast U.S., a preponderance of members now phase the Arctic jet with a strengthening segment of the subtropical jet over the Gulf. By Sunday morning, ensemble means place a highly-anomalous H5 low and deepening surface reflection along the East Coast of the United States. Cluster analysis for the synoptic guidance continues to show moderate spread in timing and positioning of the invigorated trough, but at this time a majority of members support this general evolution.

If current trends hold, the surface low associated with the developing nor'easter should pass over Florida early on Saturday. For a brief time, total moisture values (PWs) reach 100-125% of normal. As the low rapidly deepens while exiting the state, another Arctic surface high should drop into the Southern Plains, producing a strong pressure gradient over the Southeast. This is likely to result in another surge of cold air advection into Florida. NAEFS H85 temperatures tumble to a median of -4 deg C by Sunday morning, which are values near or outside the 30-year CFSR model climate for the date. ECMWF-EFIs for both MaxT and MinT are below -0.9 with some shift of tails, which is indicative of a very unusual or extreme event relative to its model climate.

Surface high pressure drifts over Florida early next week as H5 heights build closer to normal by around next Tuesday. Negative temperature anomalies should persist until at least the middle of next week, as only slow moderation occurs.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Friday...

Temperatures will continue to be the biggest impact, particularly in the overnight and morning hours. The coldest conditions for the work week are expected through Thursday morning, with some moderation on Friday.

After blowing in some bitter wind chills this morning, wind gusts will slacken today. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in place through 9 am for all of the interior as well as inland/northern Brevard, inland Indian River, and all of Volusia County. Over this area, wind chills will generally range in the mid-upper 20s this morning. An additional Cold Weather Advisory was required for early Wednesday morning. Similar wind chills can be anticipated within the advisory area, which expands to include all of mainland Brevard County.

A Freeze Warning continues through 9 am for Lake and inland Volusia Counties. The Freeze Warning expands tonight, encompassing Volusia and all interior counties except Okeechobee. A new Freeze Watch has been posted for Wednesday night for the same locales, plus Okeechobee County. Within the Freeze Watch area, there is a greater than 50% chance of a freeze occurring for more than two hours. On both nights, the greatest freeze probabilities (60-80%) are outside of the Orlando bypass, in outlying and exurban communities of interior Central Florida. Patchy frost may form over rural areas Tuesday night. Somewhat higher frost coverage is expected on Wednesday morning as moisture increases very slightly.

Despite sunshine, afternoon high temps will be much colder today, some 10-20 degrees below normal (upper 50s-low 60s). Highs remain 8-12 degrees below normal through Thursday, before briefly rebounding to within around 5 degrees of normal on Friday (65-70 deg F).

Additional information on cold weather, including probabilities, trends, and durations of specific temperatures, can be found at weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport.

Weekend - Early Next Week...

Confidence is increasing that a nor'easter will form off the Southeast U.S. coast on Saturday. In its wake, the Arctic air mass now sitting across much of the Eastern U.S. will be driven southward on northwesterly winds. In short, guidance seems insistent on a textbook setup to deliver Central Florida a major cold air outbreak and hard freeze beginning Saturday night, lasting through early next week. The potential impacts below are based on the latest forecast. There is still some spread in the guidance, so these impacts may change. Please stay up to date over the coming days as we fine-tune the details.

First, as surface low pressure begins to develop over the state, there is a 30-50% chance of rain showers on Friday night into early Saturday. The timing may shift a bit, but amounts look relatively light (chance of > 0.5" is less than 10%). Winds increase Saturday afternoon and remain gusty out of the northwest through Saturday night into Sunday. By Sunday morning, statistical guidance has trended much colder, in line with model trends. The most likely outcome is now for low temperatures to dip into the mid-upper 20s over most of the district, save for the immediate Treasure Coast barrier islands. This would rival the cold air outbreaks of 2010 for some spots.

The risk for a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) has jumped to 40-60% over much of the area early Sunday. Similarly cold temperatures are projected next Monday morning as well. The bottom line here: agricultural interests, zone-pushers, and gardeners should know that the threat of a major freeze event has increased. Residents will also need to consider the possibility of frozen pipes if precautions are not taken.

The other societal hazard will be extremely cold wind chills for Central Florida standards. Our deterministic guidance shows widespread wind chills in the teens on Sunday morning, and in the upper teens to low 20s on Monday morning. Highs on Sunday will likely not make it out of the 40s over all but the Treasure Coast (50s). Those most vulnerable, such as the unhoused or those without adequate heating, will be impacted most by this rare cold outbreak.

Temperatures are to remain well below normal while slowly moderating through next Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 155 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

A cold front has exited the waters as high pressure nudges in from the west. Gale-force wind gusts will diminish this morning, and winds will continue to slacken through the day. Hazardous seas will linger, with the slowest improvement over the Gulf Stream by tonight. High pressure then persists near Florida through Friday, though a brief period of poor boating conditions may occur offshore late Wednesday. Attention turns to a potential nor'easter as it develops while moving away from Florida this weekend. Should this occur, dangerous boating conditions would return by Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1240 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Gusty N/NW winds in the presence of strong cold advection will persist overnight, decreasing toward daybreak but gusts remaining near 20 knots esp coastal terminals. Pressure gradient will gradually loosen during Tuesday allowing the north winds and gusts to decrease during the afternoon at 7-10 knots at MCO/SFB/DAB. Treasure coast terminals (VRB-SUA) will hold onto 10-14 knots with some gusts up to 20-22 knots through much of the day Tuesday finally decreasing by sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

In the wake of yesterday's cold front, much drier air will drift down the peninsula today. Combined with persistent northwest winds of 7-12 mph, fire-sensitive conditions are expected, especially west of Okeechobee to Daytona Beach, where RHs will dip to 15-30% this afternoon. Very low afternoon RH values continue on Wednesday and Thursday, generally from 20-30% over the interior and slightly higher on the coast. Northwest winds around 10 mph are forecast for Wednesday, shifting to the north at 5-10 mph on Thursday. Peak dispersion ranges from fair to good the next two afternoons.

RHs remain in the 30-40% range for all but the Treasure Coast on Friday, then jump well above thresholds on Saturday as moisture briefly increases ahead of our next cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 51 32 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 54 33 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 57 39 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 60 40 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 53 32 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 54 33 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 54 33 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 60 39 64 34 / 0 0 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347-547.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347- 547-647.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044-144.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ041-044>046-053-144.

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552-555-570- 572-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 2 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ572-575.