textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather has been outlooked for portions of ECFL today. An active weather pattern is forecast into early next week, with scattered to locally numerous showers and lightning storms anticipated through at least Monday.

- Storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 55 mph (5 percent chance up to 60 mph in stronger storms today), and heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding will also be possible in some locations.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through next week, with peak heat indices of 100-107F areawide. Practice heat safety if spending extended periods of time outdoors!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Today-Monday... The upper level low and surface low pressure across the northeast Gulf and near northwest Florida will slowly move northward towards the Florida Big Bend today and then move northwest towards the panhandle of Florida and south AL/south MS into Monday. As this system moves northward over the next couple of days, it may become a tropical depression. NHC has placed a 60 percent chance of tropical development over the next 36 to 48 hours. NHC and the local weather offices will continue to monitor this system as it moves north and westward (away from ECFL). The surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly build its axis towards southern Florida through the period. Locally, southern winds will prevail with speeds 10-15 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the afternoon and push inland, backing the winds southeasterly, with the sea breeze collision occurring across the interior each afternoon/evening.

The rain chances continue to slightly decrease over the local area from previous forecast packages as the low pressure system trends more westward. There is a medium (30-50 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms each day. Highest coverage will generally be across the interior where the sea breeze collision will occur. Some storms may be strong to marginally severe. SPC has outlooked portions of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather today. The environment supports this with forecast soundings showing ample instability (MUCAPE 2000-2700 J/kg), steep lapse rates, sufficient shear (SFC-6km shear of ~ 20 KT), and plenty of downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-900 J/kg). Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 55 mph (and a 5 percent chance for wind gusts up to 60 mph this afternoon), and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3", with 3+" possible in stronger storms. Some minor, localized, flooding will also be possible in training rain bands. While some of the heavy rainfall and flooding concerns may be alleviated as this system moves further westward, typical isolated heavy rainfall totals and minor flooding may still occur regardless of this systems position and development.

Any lingering shower and storm activity is forecast to dissipate or move out of the area each evening, with mostly dry conditions forecast each night. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue with afternoon high temperatures in the low mid 90s and peak heat indices of 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows will continue to be in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Saturday.... The upper level low pressure system near the southeast US will gradually diminish into the middle of next week, causing the surface low to weaken and become diffuse. Surface high pressure across the western Atlantic will shift its axis northward from South Florida to central Florida and out into the Gulf by late week. Northerly flow aloft will then develop as the high pressure gets consolidated, which will allow upper level vorticity to traverse across the Florida peninsula late week. This will allow a frontal boundary to slide southward into north Florida and stall through late week. Locally, winds will generally be southerly around 10 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, turning the winds onshore (southeasterly) behind the sea breeze. Deep moisture along the frontal boundary across north Florida may slide southward into central Florida late week depending on how far the frontal boundary makes it before stalling. For now, have maintained a 20-30 percent chance of showers and storms through Friday, and a 20-40 percent chance on Saturday. Slight warming trend is forecast into mid to late week, with greater coverage of mid 90s for highs each day. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s each night.

MARINE

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Today-Thursday... The upper level low and surface low pressure across the northeast Gulf will slowly move northward towards the Florida Big Bend today and then move northwest towards the panhandle of Florida and south AL/south MS into Monday before weakening and becoming diffuse into the middle of next week. As this system moves northward over the next couple of days, it may become a tropical depression. NHC has placed a 60 percent chance of tropical development over the next 36 to 48 hours. The formation of the low pressure will result in the pressure gradient tightening across the local area, increasing the southerly winds to 10-15 knots across most of the waters. Wind speeds will increase to 15 to 20 knots across the Volusia nearshore waters this afternoon and into this evening. Because of this, small craft will need to exercise caution in the nearshore Volusia waters during those times. Seas 2 to 3 feet today will increase in response to the winds to 2 to 4 ft by Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will persist through at least the middle of next week, with speeds generally 10-15 knots. Seas will remain between 2 to 4 feet through early next week, before slowly subsiding to 2-3 feet on Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible, primarily during the late evening and overnight hours.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 650 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

SSE winds pick up to around 10 knots after 14Z, becoming gusty at some terminals through this afternoon. Bands of rainfall will move across east central Florida this afternoon, with VCSH/VCTS chances increasing after 17Z. PROB30s for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA remain in the forecast between 20-24Z at all interior terminals and have been added at DAB, TIX, and MLB. Activity will gradually diminish after 00Z, with some lingering VCSH possible through 06Z at MCO and the other interior terminals. SSE winds will become light once again overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 77 92 77 / 30 10 40 20 MCO 94 77 94 77 / 40 10 40 20 MLB 91 77 92 77 / 30 20 50 20 VRB 92 76 93 76 / 30 10 40 20 LEE 92 77 92 78 / 50 20 50 20 SFB 94 77 94 78 / 40 20 40 20 ORL 93 78 93 78 / 40 10 40 20 FPR 92 75 93 75 / 30 10 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.