textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Turning windy, especially at the coast, late this afternoon through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents.

- A wet pattern of onshore moving showers and a few storms is forecast mid to late week. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas, especially later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Today-Tonight... A surface front extending over the western Atlantic and through portions of the southeast U.S. early today is pushed further east-southeastward as high pressure expands along the eastern seaboard. Deep moisture persists across central Florida, south of the surface boundary. East-northeast onshore winds begin to increase 10-15 mph this afternoon as the local pressure gradient begins to tighten. Showers and storms over the local Atlantic early in the day should occasionally push onshore. A diffuse sea breeze looks to develop late morning and the into early afternoon bringing the greatest chances (50-60%) for showers and storms inland, west of I-95, after 12PM. Inland activity diminishes into early evening, while isolated to scattered rounds of showers and storms should continue along the coast through the overnight. Poor lapse rates should generally limit organized stronger storms today. However, increasing background flow and winds aloft could still allow for developing convection to produce wind gusts 40-50 mph. Otherwise, hazards remain occasional to frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy downpours. Afternoon temperatures will be seasonal around the upper 80s and low 90s, but humid conditions will still produce peak heat index values in the low triple digits (100-107F). Overnight low temperatures will mostly range the mid to upper 70s, remaining warmest along the coast.

Wednesday-Thursday... Continued tightening of the local pressure gradient will further increase onshore flow to around 15-20+ mph Wednesday with peak gusts 25-30 mph at times. This will prompt a period of poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions, and a high risk of life threatening rip currents along with rough surf is expected at all local beaches. East-northeast winds diminish to 10-15 mph Thursday, remaining breezy, and a high risk of rip currents is expected to continue. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is not advised!

A drier airmass advects across central Florida on Wednesday with a tight moisture gradient extended southward through Lake Okeechobee. The PoP forecast mostly reflects this showing lower rain chances north of the Orlando Metro within the area of driest air. However, moistening of the lower levels within increased onshore flow should still allow for slight rain chances along the Volusia and northern Brevard Coast, and can't rule out a few of these showers sneaking further inland. Otherwise, deeper moisture south should allow for rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms throughout the day, continuing along the coast into Wednesday night.

Some slight adjustments have been made to the forecast into Thursday as a mid to upper level trough over the western Atlantic approaches Florida. Of note, some model guidance has slowed the westward progression of this feature. These slower solutions hold onto the drier airmass across portions of north-central Florida longer than some of the previous forecast cycles. Therefore, rain chances Thursday may look more similar to what is forecast Wednesday favoring continued rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms across the south with lower rain chances north, especially northwest of I-4.

High temperatures are forecast near normal Wednesday and Thursday, mostly reaching the upper 80s and near 90s degrees. Morning lows in the 70s will be highest along the coast. Areas along the Barrier Islands may struggle to fall below the 80 degree mark each morning.

Friday-Monday... An unsettled pattern is forecast late week and into early next week as the mid to upper level trough passes over Florida and into the Gulf. Moisture recovers behind the trough, expanding moderate to high rain chances more areawide. Light easterly winds veer southeast to south late in the weekend, becoming locally enhanced onshore as a weak sea breeze develops each day. Afternoon temperatures continue to hold near normal in the upper 80s and close to 90s degrees.

MARINE

Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions begin build late this afternoon through mid week as high pressure expands across the eastern U.S. Light onshore winds early today increase 15-20 kts north of the Cape into the evening as the local pressure gradient begins to tighten. Small Craft Advisories go into effect late this evening and overnight for the Volusia and Brevard waters as east-northeast winds further increase 20-25 kts. Winds 15-20 kts spread south of the Sebastian Inlet late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Seas begin to build 6-8 ft across the northern Volusia waters after midnight Wednesday, spreading southward through the Treasure Coast early Wednesday afternoon and prompting the Small Craft Advisory to be expanded into the Treasure Coast waters. Winds and seas show a diminishing trend early Thursday, and favorable boating conditions return to the local Atlantic waters Friday. A generally wet pattern begins today and is forecast through late week as a mid to upper level low approaches and passes west of the local Atlantic waters.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Onshore-moving showers begin the day along the coast, increasing in coverage through the morning hours. Activity spreads inland with the diffuse sea breeze by around 17Z, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible from around 18-21Z. PROB30s have been included for brief reductions to CIGs/VIS. A brief lull in SH is forecast along the coast after 21Z, before shower coverage increases once again after sunset. This activity is then expected to gradually persist long enough to impact MCO/ISM/SFB after around 6Z.

E/ENE flow through the TAF period, increasing to 10-12 kts through the day. Winds look to remain elevated overnight, especially along the coast. Breezy conditions then develop Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 78 88 76 / 50 40 40 10 MCO 91 76 89 74 / 60 20 30 0 MLB 89 79 88 77 / 50 70 70 30 VRB 89 77 88 75 / 50 70 70 50 LEE 91 76 89 73 / 60 10 10 0 SFB 90 76 88 74 / 50 30 40 0 ORL 90 77 88 75 / 60 20 40 0 FPR 89 77 88 75 / 60 60 70 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575.