textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Patchy fog is expected to form for the next few mornings. There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches.

- High pressure near Florida will continue to deliver dry and warm weather over the next week.

- Our next significant cold front still looks to be more than a week away, perhaps arriving around or just after Thanksgiving.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

This morning, Florida resides on the northeastern periphery of upper high pressure situated over the Yucatan Peninsula. From there, a ridge axis extends northward through the eastern Plains to Hudson Bay. A deep cut-off low sits over San Diego, and additional jet stream energy is set to move off the Pacific over the coming days. This will ensure that the upper high over the Gulf remains nearly stationary for the rest of the week. By the weekend, guidance ejects a shortwave from the West Coast trough into confluent flow over the Ohio Valley, forcing it to weaken as it moves eastward. This feature may briefly cause heights to dip over the Southeast U.S. late in the weekend. By early next week, ridging is set to expand eastward over Florida as a pair of disturbances begins to migrate toward the Plains. Confidence in the synoptic pattern for the next 6-7 days is very good as model spread remains low.

An axis of surface high pressure is forecast to remain over Florida for the remainder of the week. By Sunday, a weakening front approaches North Florida before dissipating nearby on Monday. Another bubble of high pressure then noses off the East Coast by next Tuesday, delivering east to southeast breezes to the state for the middle of next week. H85 temperature anomalies of +1 to +3 deg C are anticipated through the next seven days, and any deeper moisture is set to remain north of Central Florida.

Looking ahead, the ensemble means continue to indicate a couple of signals to watch next week. The first feature, embedded in the subtropical jet, exits the Sonoran Desert by Monday. It should pass north of Florida around next Wednesday. The second feature, moving from the NE Pacific on Monday to the Great Lakes around Thanksgiving Day, looks stronger. This disturbance holds the best chance for a bona fide cold frontal passage around next Friday (28th).

Still, any sort of cooldown is expected to remain limited in duration as additional Pacific energy enters the West by month's end, most likely forcing heights to build over Florida for the first days of December. Extended-range models still favor increasing cold weather risks as we move deeper into December.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Saturday...

A very tranquil forecast as high pressure sits overhead. We anticipate nearly rinse-and-repeat conditions each day with plentiful sunshine and above-normal daytime temperatures generally in the low/mid 80s. Patchy fog is still expected due to the very light winds, allowing for high morning RH values. Locally dense fog cannot be ruled out; this will be a hazard to keep an eye on each morning.

Sunday - Next Week...

A weak cold front teases the state late Sunday into Monday before dissipating with little fanfare. Ahead of it, westerly winds may gust up to around 15 mph on Sunday afternoon. By early next week, we still anticipate warm and dry conditions as onshore flow quickly returns. Each day, expect upper 70s/low 80s beachside to low/mid 80s elsewhere.

Moisture increases a bit by the middle of next week, but with deep-layer high pressure close, we see no reason quite yet to introduce rain chances. An area of low pressure passing to our northwest around next Wednesday may send a front into N Florida. Thereafter, confidence lessens as a second (stronger) disturbance is due to arrive over the Midwest around Thanksgiving. At this time, Central Florida still looks to be on the warm side for the holiday, but rain chances cannot be ruled out by then as the front slowly approaches.

MARINE

Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Tranquil boating conditions continue for the local waters. A large axis of high pressure will sit over Florida through at least Saturday, delivering light and variable winds enhanced by the daily sea breeze. A weak front approaches the local Atlantic by Sunday before dissipating as high pressure returns early next week.

Winds light and variable, turning easterly up to 10 KT along the coast each afternoon. Before the sea breeze forms, winds veer south-to-southeast on Saturday, eventually turning west-to-northwest on Sunday due to the next approaching front, all less than 12 KT. Seas 2-3 FT today, lessening to 1-2 FT from Thursday through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. High pressure ridge axis across the area will keep winds light and variable and skies clear to mostly clear. A weak sea breeze will increase winds out of the NE to ENE 7-9 knots at coastal terminals this afternoon. Patchy fog is possible early Thu but have not inserted any VSBY reductions though fog-prone terminals VRB/FPR are more favored.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today and Thursday, RH values near and north of I-4 dip to around 40% in the afternoon. These fire-sensitive RH readings then increase from Friday into the weekend as more moisture returns. Light winds (under 10 mph) are expected each day as high pressure settles overhead. Nearly calm winds overnight will continue to be favorable for patchy fog development. Any fog that mixes with smoke from ongoing fires may worsen visibility in their vicinity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 81 58 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 61 80 63 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 81 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 82 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 83 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 82 62 81 63 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.