textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Deep moisture and light southwest flow will continue high afternoon and evening rain chances along the sea breeze collision through Tuesday. A few strong storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, localized wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall.

- Drier air builds mid to late week, noticeably reducing rain chances from Wednesday onward.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures continue today. A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Today-Tonight... Another persistence forecast is expected, driven by light southwest flow and deep moisture. Isolated to scattered showers and storms which develop on the east and west coast sea breeze early in the afternoon become locally numerous in coverage late in the day as a sea breeze collision occurs on the eastern side of the peninsula. Overnight runs of high-res models have struggled to resolve the areas of highest coverage recently. However, consistency among global ensemble members may suggest this afternoon's greatest coverage (~60-70%) occurring near and south of Orlando/ Cape Canaveral through Lake Okeechobee. A summerlike environment of high surface instability and weak shear will support isolated strong storms capable of frequent lightning strikes and localized wind gusts of 45-55 mph in vicinity of downbursts. Heavy downpours in slow moving or stationary storms may result in minor/ nuisance flooding of urban or low lying areas. Outside of storms, temperatures warm a degree or two from yesterday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are forecast late overnight into early Tuesday.

Tuesday-Saturday... As model disagreements in the synoptic pattern over the eastern U.S. slowly resolve, guidance continues to show high pressure holding influence over the local weather pattern. Scattered showers and storms (40-60%) are forecast Tuesday before drier air associated with the next plume of Saharan dust works to noticeably reduce rain chances mid to late week. Coverage of widely isolated to scattered showers and storms on Wednesday (20-40%) becomes mostly dry on Thursday. Considerable spread then exists as to when mentionable rain chances may start to return. Global ensemble members are split on rain chances returning in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee on Friday before scattered rain chances are reintroduced more areawide this weekend. Will have to watch for a strong storm capable of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds should any stronger updrafts be able to overcome and mix the layer of dry air.

As rain chances taper back, the primary weather headline transitions to a period of building heat. By Wednesday, global models suggest that a portion of the mid level ridge extending from the western Atlantic will become centered near or offshore northeast Florida. While the strength and center point of the high may fluctuate through the period, increased subsidence across the region should lead to a period of above normal temperatures, especially near and north of I-4. The current forecast keeps highs in the low to mid 90s along the coast while temperatures warm through the mid to upper 90s across portions of the interior mid to late week. A building HeatRisk is expected to affect those without adequate cooling and hydration. Trends will be monitored for any potential Heat Advisories as peak heat index values may near or exceed the 108F threshold across portions of the area by late week.

MARINE

Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

High pressure will maintain favorable boating conditions outside of storms. Light south to southwest winds continue through midweek, increasing 10-15 kts each evening and overnight. A light south to southeast wind shift is expected near the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Seas of 1-2 ft occasionally increase to 3 ft far offshore early this week, and by Thursday, seas build to more widely range 2-3 ft across the local waters. Scattered to locally numerous offshore moving storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, and again on Tuesday. Drier air builds across the region into Wednesday, reducing rain chances mid to late week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Scattered showers and lightning storms have formed along the west and east coast sea breeze this afternoon, with the west coast sea breeze being more active. High coverage of showers and storms are expected for this afternoon and evening, with the sea breeze collision forecast near to just west of I-95 and east of Orlando this afternoon (generally around 21-23Z). Lingering showers and storms will be possible through 04Z in some locations. Have maintained TEMPOs for VIS/CIG reductions beginning over the interior after 20Z, spreading eastward over the next few hours. Gusty winds near 45 KT will be possible in the strongest storms. Otherwise, winds remain 10 KT or less through the period. Dry conditions with light and variable winds overnight. VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 93 77 94 / 40 40 20 30 MCO 76 94 77 95 / 40 60 30 40 MLB 76 91 78 92 / 20 40 10 40 VRB 75 91 77 92 / 10 40 10 20 LEE 77 93 78 95 / 20 40 20 20 SFB 77 95 77 95 / 50 50 30 40 ORL 77 93 78 94 / 40 60 30 40 FPR 74 91 76 91 / 10 50 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.