textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers through this evening; isolated to scattered sea breeze storms this weekend.

- Favorable boating conditions forecast this weekend.

- Warming trend into the weekend, then turning hot next week especially over the interior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Thru tonight...The persistent mid level ridging is breaking down as moisture gradually increases in the low levels and upper levels, eroding the mid level dry air. Isolated showers will bubble up over the interior into early evening as well as pushing onshore portions of the coast. Then mostly dry overnight with winds becoming light and variable and temperatures falling back into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Fri-Thu...Weak mid level trough over the FL peninsula Fri will slide eastward of the area Fri night. NW flow on the backside of this trough will allow embedded shortwaves to pass across the area through the weekend and early next week. Then mid level ridge of high pressure slowly builds over the SW Gulf and tries to expand north/east. Modest moisture exists across the region thru early Sat, then an increase in PWATs from late Sat into mid next week. In the low levels, pressure gradient will remain weak in vicinity of the Atlc ridge axis allowing the sea breeze to develop each afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms this weekend will be mainly assocd with sea breeze collisions, especially Sunday when rain chances (25-35%) are highest. Any lightning strikes that occur will have potential to spark brush fires given the dry antecedent conditions. Reinforcing high pressure is forecast to build over the area Monday then move out over the SW Atlc with a trailing ridge axis slipping down the FL peninsula mid week.

A warming trend this weekend with max temps in the upper 80s interior and mid 80s coast. Max temps Mon hold steady then additional warming follows with lower 90s Tue and low to mid 90s Wed/Thu over the interior. Daily sea breezes will keep the coast a little cooler, but increasingly delayed sea breezes will allow the coast to warm into the upper 80s by Wed/Thu.

MARINE

Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Conditions gradually improve through Fri as the pressure gradient continues to relax as a weak low-level ridge axis settles across central FL. A more offshore W/SW flow will develop by Sun as the ridge axis pushes south of the local waters. An E/SE sea breeze 10-15 knots will develop each afternoon near the coast. Seas subside 2-3 FT Fri, 2 FT Sat and 1-2 FT Sun. Scattered showers into this evening near the coast. Isold-scattered aftn/evening lightning storms over land this weekend may affect some inland lakes as well as push offshore onto the Atlc, esp Sunday aftn/evening.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR to continue. -SHRA are brushing the coast from VRB to MLB this afternoon, where VCSH is in place. ESE winds around 10 kt (10-15 kt MLB-SUA) are gusting at times around 20 kt. -SHRA cannot be ruled out after 23z near ISM/MCO, but probabilities remain too low to include in the TAF. Otherwise, FEW/SCT at FL035-050 with some additional SCT/BKN near FL070-100. Winds weaken after 02z, then pick up again after 15z Fri.

For MCO, will have to monitor the potential for VCSH again after 22-23z Fri. along the sea breeze collision.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

High pressure ridge axis will settle southward across central FL Friday then reach south Florida by Sunday. Light south to southwest wind will turn onshore (E/SE) behind the sea breeze each afternoon with speeds near 15 mph. Min RH values of 35-40% are forecast over portions of the interior Friday and Saturday, rising to 40-45% Sunday while RH values hold around 50% near the coast. Dispersions will be Fair to Generally Good Friday and Good to Very Good Saturday and Sunday.

Isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast Friday into the weekend, highest values inland from the coast and greatest overall chance on Sunday, associated with late day/evening boundary collisions. New fire starts will be a concern from any lightning strikes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 61 82 63 85 / 0 10 0 20 MCO 62 85 64 88 / 0 10 0 30 MLB 65 81 66 84 / 0 10 0 20 VRB 64 81 65 84 / 10 10 10 20 LEE 62 86 63 88 / 0 10 0 20 SFB 61 86 63 89 / 0 10 0 20 ORL 63 86 65 88 / 0 10 0 30 FPR 63 81 63 84 / 10 10 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.