textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Unseasonably warm today and Saturday with near record highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A HIGH risk of life threatening rip currents continues today. Always swim near a life-guarded beach and never enter the water alone.

- A strong cold front will bring medium (40-50pct) rain chances Sunday followed by sharply colder and much drier air. Critical fire weather conditions may develop Sunday afternoon for northern sections and will develop areawide Monday.

- Unseasonably cold low temperatures Mon-Wed mornings with frost/freeze concerns. Coldest wind chills will occur Mon night/Tue morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Today-Sat...High pressure ridge axis will remain across south FL and produce a SW wind flow. Some morning stratus and patchy fog will dissipate and reveal mostly sunny skies both days with only some fair weather cumulus and passing cirrus. The offshore (SW) flow will not be strong enough to prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming but it will be delayed. This will allow even coastal sections to warm into the mid 80s both days with upper 80s over the interior. There is a good chance for fresh record highs to be set today esp at Daytona and Sanford (see below). A persistent long period NE swell will continue to impact the surf zone and create another High risk of rip currents at the beaches today. Will reassess if a High risk will be needed Sat as both the swell height and period should continue to gradually decrease/shorten.

Sun-Thu...Winter makes a comeback. A strong cold front will sweep across EC FL Sunday and bring scattered showers. Prospect for lightning is low due to limited instability. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25". Gusty northwest winds will usher in sharply colder and much drier air Sunday afternoon from north to south behind the front. Temperatures will fall quickly Sun eve reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s Mon morning. A persistent NW breeze of 10-15 mph will produce lowest wind chills in the low to mid 30s. Despite full sunshine Monday, max temps will be about 15 degrees below normal, only reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s. Breezy NW winds of 15 mph and gusty on Mon combined with very low RH will produce critical fire weather conditions.

The coldest night will be Mon night when a Cold Weather Advisory is likely to be needed for most of the area with lows in the 30s and lowest wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s due to a northwest breeze holding near 10 mph. Our threshold for this type of advisory is 30F or below. Freezing temperatures near 32F will be possible over rural portions of the interior both north and south of Orlando on Monday night and Tue night but most areas will not see a freeze.

High pressure will settle over the area Tue night and produce very light to calm wind. Under clear skies, this will produce excellent radiational cooling and potential for frost where temperatures fall into the mid 30s.

High pressure will push east of the area Wed and return southerly flow will allow temps to warm back up qickly with max temps in the low to mid 70s Wed and upper 70s/near 80 Thu. Dry conditions persist with the next meager chance for rain arriving around Friday associated with the next cold front.

MARINE

Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

High pressure ridge axis will remain across south Florida through Saturday which will produce a S to SW wind flow, turning onshore (SE) in a sea breeze near the coast this afternoon and Sat afternoon. Winds behind the sea breeze will be 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Seas 2-4 FT today and 2-3 FT Sat.

A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday bringing scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few storms mainly over the Gulf Stream. Strong and gusty NW winds will develop behind the front Sun afternoon and quickly overspread all the local Atlc waters. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop with seas building to 12 FT in the Gulf Stream early Mon. Gusts to Gale force are possible Sun night into Mon esp offshore. Conditions will remain hazardous for boating through early next week. Winds will decrease 12-15 knots on Tue but the north wind component will keep seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf Stream with a choppy 4-5 FT nearshore.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1240 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Once again 00Z guidance has backed way off on fog/stratus chances for early this morning, now calling for TEMPO impacts, if any, 10Z-13Z at the northern terminals including KMCO. There is still some uncertainty how significant the impacts will be, with NBM/LAV generally remaining VFR-MVFR, but HREF indicating reductions to IFR-LIFR (10-30% chance) remain possible. Given the the new guidance but overall uncertainty, backed off impacts in the TAFs a bit, brining most to prevailing VFR, but kept MVFR-IFR TEMPOs. Whatever fog/stratus manages to develop expected to clear by around 13Z, with VFR conditions prevailing until we do this all over again late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Light southerly/VRB overnight winds become SW 5-10 kts at 15Z. The east coast sea breeze develops after 18Z, shifting winds S-SE and increasing to 10-15 kts with gust 20-25 kts at KTIX-KSUA. At KDAB the sea breeze is likely to be pinned near to offshore the coast most of the afternoon, only making a weak push inland late in the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Warm and dry conditions are forecast through Saturday. Deep mixing will transport lower dewpoints to the surface allowing min RH values to fall near 35% this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon especially over the interior. Southwest winds will remain below 15 mph. A southeast sea breeze will develop along the coast both afternoons which will be occasionally gusty but also boost the RH values. Dispersion values will be Very Good to Excellent both days, except generally Good across Martin county.

A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday and bring a chance for showers during the day but rainfall amounts less than 0.25" is forecast. Northwest winds behind the front will increase 15 mph gusting 25-30 mph and advect much drier air into central Florida. RH values will fall during the afternoon with potential for critical RH spreading south to Orlando before sunset. Red flag conditions are likely Monday with min RHs 20-30% areawide and NW winds near 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph.

CLIMATE

Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Record Highs for today and Saturday:

RECORD RECORD NORMAL DATE HIGH DATE HIGH HI DAB 20-Feb 85 1988 21-Feb 87 1989 72 LEE 20-Feb 86 2018 21-Feb 87 2018 74 SFB 20-Feb 86 2019 21-Feb 87 2003 75 MCO 20-Feb 89 1988 21-Feb 88 1989 76 MLB 20-Feb 86 1988 21-Feb 88 1989 75 VRB 20-Feb 88 2023 21-Feb 87 2014 76 FPR 20-Feb 88 1932 21-Feb 89 1989 76

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 87 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 88 63 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 85 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 85 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 86 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 30 SFB 88 62 88 63 / 0 0 0 20 ORL 87 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 86 59 86 57 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.