textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 141 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches. Nice weather is deceiving, please remain out of the surf.

- Warming temperatures into this weekend, with near-record highs forecast for Sunday.

- Colder temperatures return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Today-Sunday...A surface ridge axis remains south of the Florida peninsula today, before lifting northward into Saturday. Aloft, a couple of shortwaves traverse the peninsula, while a quasi- stationary front remains draped over north Florida and the panhandle. Locally, mostly dry conditions persist. However, PWATs 1.3-1.4" and support from the passing shortwaves will support a few showers along a surface trough between the peninsula and the Bahamas. Some of this activity is forecast to drift onshore into the Treasure Coast, especially Saturday. Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail. By Sunday, onshore winds around 8-12 mph veer south- southwesterly and increase to 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25 mph, as low pressure develops near the Tennessee Valley and drags a cold front through the Deep South. No precipitation is forecast to end the weekend.

Instead, the biggest story will be the increase in temperatures. While a major winter storm impacts a significant portion of the eastern US, Florida will be dealing with a heat wave. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s today will increase each day into Sunday. By the end of the weekend, highs in the mid to upper 80s will be near-record for many locations, especially over the interior. Cooler Atlantic waters will help to keep coastal locations in the lower to mid-80s, though breezy southwesterly winds will limit the development of a sea breeze. Regardless, forecast temperatures are near 15 degrees above normal for Sunday. Overnight lows will also warm each day, with upper 50s to lower 60s remaining in the 60s by Sunday night. Current NBM guidance for lows Sunday night are quite a bit cooler than other models. Should this trend hold, will likely see mins trend warmer in future updates.

Monday-Friday...Our next cold front reaches the local area Sunday night into Monday morning, as the aforementioned low moves off of the Northeast US coast. Scattered showers are forecast to accompany the frontal passage, though lightning chances are low (below 15%) due to limited CAPE. The front will put an end to the heat wave, though highs in the upper 70s will remain possible along the Treasure Coast Monday morning. Cold temperatures return for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current NBM forecast guidance seems to have settled quickly into the idea of widespread temperatures in the 30s. However, global model guidance has trended warmer. Will likely see this trend make its way into NBM guidance, unless there is a change in the other models. Regardless, chilly conditions will return, with breezy northwesterly winds producing cold wind chills.

High pressure is forecast to build into the Southeast Tuesday, before another cold front mid to late week. Dry conditions persist, with limited moisture return ahead of the front. Instead, below normal temperatures are expected to continue into next weekend. Highs in the 50s and 60s look likely most days, with overnight lows in the 30s and lower 40s. Will need to watch trends as we head through the period, though this appears to be the start of a prolonged period of below normal temperatures.

MARINE

Issued at 141 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure over the local area today, with a few showers persisting along and offshore from the Treasure Coast. Onshore flow generally around 10 kts or less through tonight. Nearshore, seas 3-4 ft are forecast, while seas up to 55 ft will be possible offshore, especially north of Sebastian Inlet.

Saturday-Tuesday...Onshore flow persists at around 10-15 kts through Saturday, with isolated to scattered showers. However, boating conditions will deteriorate into Saturday night, as swell builds seas to up to 7-8 ft offshore. An approaching cold front and tightening pressure gradient Sunday will cause winds southerly winds to increase to 15-20 kts, with seas 7-8 ft in the Gulf Stream. Increasingly hazardous conditions then develop into Monday, as the front passes through the local waters. Northerly winds 20-25 kts behind the front, build seas to 8-12 ft into Tuesday, despite slackening winds. Small Craft Advisories are expected by Saturday night for the offshore zones and will likely continue through early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1241 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions through today with NE winds at 5-10 KT. Winds become N/NNE and light overnight. Guidance continues to indicate patchy to areas of fog and low stratus forming across east central Florida late tonight into early Saturday morning. Due to increasing confidence, having prevailing MVFR conditions and included IFR/LIFR conditions in TEMPOs for MCO, LEE, SFB, ISM, and DAB starting at 08/09Z, with MVFR TEMPOs everywhere else for those times. Conditions then become VFR around 14/15Z Saturday with NNE winds 5-10 KT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 58 73 61 83 / 10 20 10 0 MCO 60 78 63 86 / 10 10 10 0 MLB 60 76 63 83 / 10 20 10 0 VRB 61 78 63 84 / 10 20 10 0 LEE 56 76 61 83 / 10 10 10 0 SFB 58 77 61 85 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 59 78 63 85 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 60 78 63 84 / 10 20 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.