textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- A wet weather pattern will persist across East Central Florida this week and into the weekend as onshore flow and high moisture supports above normal rain and storm chances, including during the overnights and early mornings.

- Primary storm hazards will be gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue to produce heat indices in the triple digits through the week. Be sure to take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning if spending prolonged time outdoors to avoid the development of heat-related illness.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Today-Tonight...Mid-upper level high pressure slides slowly eastward from near the Mississippi to the Tennessee River Valleys, far enough north that mid-level disturbances on the southern flank of the high will pass over Florida and the Gulf, helping to keep local conditions unsettled. Weakening of the Bermuda high by weather systems to the north and anomalously high moisture have helped an inverted surface trough develop over the Atlantic waters offshore Florida, which is forecast to gradually drift west in the weak onshore flow. Between the trough and daytime convection, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are possible today and tonight. Scattered to numerous showers are expected to develop over the Atlantic waters through the rest of the morning, some of which may move onshore (chances 20-40%). Additional scattered showers and storms will then develop along and ahead of the east coast sea breeze in the late morning to early afternoon, then push inland through the rest of the afternoon and evening (chances 50-70%). This activity could get going by late morning. While subsidence behind the sea breeze should knock back coverage some behind the boundary, the multiple disturbances could kick off yet more rounds of convection at any point. The trough is forecast to approach the coast late in the evening into the overnight, but enhanced onshore floor from the sea breeze could move this timeline earlier. Scattered to numerous showers will once again develop over the Atlantic waters tonight after the sea breeze circulation shuts down, some of which could move onshore (chances 20-40%).

Model and recent upper-air soundings show a very saturated atmosphere with long-skinny profiles and warm mid-levels (PWATs 2.2-2.4" and T500 around -5 C) typical of an environment supportive of heavy rainfall. Easterly steering flow has returned but remains weak (10 kts or less), and chaotic boundary interactions may again dictate storm motion. Storms or heavy showers that become slow/erratic could deliver a quick 2-3" of rainfall leading to ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of urban, low-lying, or poor drainage areas. There is a very low (up to 5%) chance for one or two spots to receive +4" of rainfall leading to greater flooding impacts, and the Weather Prediction Center has outlooked all of East Central Florida in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. In addition to the rainfall, stronger storms and heavy showers will be capable of gusty winds 40-50 mph from water loading. Occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. If the trough settles just off the coast tonight, there is potential for training of heavy rainfall and overnight flooding on portions of the coastal corridor. Current hi-res models/ensembles don't setup significant banding or rainfall, but trends will need to be monitored.

As for the rest of the forecast, temperatures seasonable with afternoon highs in the U80s-L90s and lows in the L-M70s. Peak afternoon heat indices 98-105. A Moderate risk of rip currents continues at the beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone.

Wednesday-Thursday...The mid-upper level high over the Southeast stalls, then begins to slip back west as the pattern starts to amplify in response to troughs/low pressure systems near the Pacific Northwest and Southeastern Canada, while mid-level disturbances meander over/near Florida at the base of the ridge. The surface trough will linger near our coast or possibly have moved inland, depending how quick it moves today, before the Bermuda high strengthens enough to increase onshore flow a bit and usher the feature westward. This will keep anomalously high moisture (PWATS 2.2-2.4") over Florida, continuing the pattern of showers and storms developing over the Atlantic waters in the overnight/early morning, then shifting inland in the late morning and afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. There is potential for moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly to add to the soup, though it is becoming increasingly difficult to track the remnants, even the moisture plume. The National Hurricane Center has dropped this system from the Tropical Weather Outlook due to very low chances of development. PWATs are already nearing environment maximums without the additional moisture, and well above normal afternoon rain chances (60-80%) are forecast regardless. The saturated atmosphere will continue to support locally high rainfall amounts of 2-3" leading to minor flooding, and very low (up to 5%) chances for +4" of rainfall producing more impactful flooding. NBM is signally an extremely low but non-zero chance for bulls-eyes over 6", that could lead to flash flooding. All of East Central Florida remains outlined in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall both days.

Stronger storms and heavy showers will also be capable of gusty winds, particularly Thursday where models are starting to show some dry air intrusion that would enhance downdrafts. Occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. Temperatures remain seasonable in the U80s-L90s, and lows in the 70s. Peak afternoon heat indices 100-107. The rip current risk increases slightly, becoming Moderate to High as long period swell arrives. Beach goers should monitor the forecast, and check in with lifeguards before entering the water.

Friday-Monday...18Z model guidance had diverged pretty significantly, especially into the weekend and early next week, but the 00Z package is coming into better agreement. Both the ECM and the GFS amplify the mid-upper level pattern with troughs on the west and east coasts, causing the ridge to our north to retrograde back over the Intermountain West while deepening. The 18Z GFS was far more aggressive, digging a sharp positively tilted trough down the eastern seaboard all the way to Florida, while pushing a cold front south that was depicted to reach Florida early next week, turning low-level flow from southerly to westerly through the weekend. While not unheard of, this would be unusual for early September. The 18Z ECM and 00Z GFS are much more moderate, bringing a broader trough down to the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend before lifting north again, which keeps the Bermuda high weakened and the surface ridge near to south of the area, with light southerly flow. Both scenarios keep us in high moisture through the weekend, but where the sea breeze collision and highest afternoon rain chances will be depend on which flow regime transpires. The 18Z GFS solution borders on physically impossible and is not reflected in the 18Z GEFS, therefore the official forecast leans closer to the 00Z GFS/ECM/ensembles, though the uncertainty lends to more broad strokes.

The official forecast calls for above normal rain and lightning storms chances to continue, but not quite as high as Thursday and Friday, with the highest chances generally inland based on sea breeze collisions somewhere between the western side the peninsula and closer to the center. Lower chances linger over the Atlantic waters and along the coast into the overnights. Near normal temperatures creep up a few degrees Friday and Saturday, with highs mostly in the 90s but flirting with the M90s inland, bringing heat indices closer to 107. Highs then settle back to the U80s-L90s Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Today-Saturday...Generally favorable winds and seas for boating through the rest of the week, but isolated to scattered lightning storms will remain a hazard, including during the overnights. The ridge axis of the Bermuda remains stationed north of Florida and the local Atlantic waters, but a weak inverted trough has set up just outside the Central Florida coastal waters. Flow remains onshore, but winds will be a bit more squirrelly than previously forecast, shifting from NE-SSE over the next couple days as the trough slowly tracks into our waters and inland. Through the rest of the week, the Bermuda high will gradually weaken, causing pressure gradient to loosen and the ridge axis to inch south, possibly reaching Florida and the local Atlantic waters late in the week or weekend. Winds will become more southeasterly Thursday, then southerly Friday, and light/variable Saturday, backing to the east in the afternoons when the sea breeze develops. Speeds 5-10 kts, closer to 10 kts in the afternoon from sea breeze enhancement. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft well offshore in the Gulf Stream tonight into Wednesday, then settling to 1-2 ft this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 735 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms with onshore flow. TAFs begin with VCSH at the coastal TAFs and TEMPO group for IFR VIS at KLEE. Light and variable winds are expected to increase from the ENE at 5-10mph after 13Z/14Z. VCTS begins at 15Z-17Z with TEMPO groups for MVFR CIGs/TSRA between 16Z-22Z. The potential exists for isolated strong storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 76 88 76 / 50 30 70 20 MCO 90 75 90 76 / 70 30 70 40 MLB 88 77 89 77 / 60 30 60 40 VRB 89 75 89 76 / 60 30 60 40 LEE 90 75 90 76 / 60 30 80 40 SFB 90 75 90 76 / 60 20 80 30 ORL 90 76 90 76 / 60 30 80 40 FPR 89 75 89 76 / 60 40 60 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.