textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 950 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Daily record low temperature broken at Melbourne and tied at Fort Pierce this morning.

- Another cold front is forecast to move across the Florida peninsula on Sunday, with a low chance for showers out ahead of the front.

- Cold conditions return to east central Florida behind the cold front on Sunday, resulting in cold mornings through at least Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 950 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

It has been a chilly start to the morning with low temperatures observed in the 30s across much of the area. A few rural locations even saw localized obs in the 20s. A new daily record low temperature of 33 degrees has been set at Melbourne, breaking the prior record of 34 degrees last set in 1983. In addition, Fort Pierce fell to 32 degrees, tying their daily record low last set in 1978. Today's afternoon highs are expected to remain below normal, ranging the upper 50s to mid 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Today-Tonight...A chilly start to this Friday morning, with morning lows still forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s across much of east central Florida. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory remain in effect across most of east central Florida through 9 AM. If traveling outside, be sure to dress appropriately. Keep plants protected and pets inside until it warms through the day.

An area of high pressure will remain in place across the Gulf today, extending eastward towards the Florida peninsula. Dry and cool conditions are forecast locally, with afternoon temperatures forecast to remain below-normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s. With the high pressure overhead, sunny skies will be present and winds will be light and variable. These conditions are forecast to persist into the overnight hours, and there is a low chance for some patchy frost development around areas of Lake George late tonight into early Saturday morning. Temperatures tonight will also remain below- normal in the mid 30s to mid 40s across most of east central Florida. With winds being light, wind chill values will remain close to forecasted temperatures.

Saturday-Sunday...Quasi-zonal flow aloft on Saturday begins to erode as a mid-level trough digs southward across the central US, causing the surface high pressure overhead to slowly weaken through the day. Mostly dry conditions are forecast locally on Saturday, though developing onshore flow could lead to some isolated shower activity across the local Atlantic waters that pushes onshore along the Treasure Coast (20% chance). Temperatures warm to near-normal on Saturday, with highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

By Sunday, the mid-level trough will continue to swing eastward across the US, with its associated surface cold front moving towards Florida and sinking south of east central Florida by Sunday evening. Rain chances are forecast to increase into Sunday out ahead of the front. There continues to be some discrepancy between how much moisture will be available ahead of the front and the GFS remains the drier solution. Maintained a 20-40% chance of showers across the area. The environment continues to look unfavorable for storm development with this activity, so have also left out any mention of storms within the forecast. Behind the front, northwest winds increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible. This will help advect a colder, drier air mass towards east central Florida, leading to a return of below-normal temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning.

Monday-Thursday...Behind the cold front on Sunday, an area of high pressure is forecast to build across the southeastern US, with a reinforcing cold front moving across Florida on Tuesday. Dry conditions persist locally into the start of next week as a result, with the next best chance for rain looking to be on Thursday driven by onshore flow and increasing moisture locally.

The main concern in the extended period will be a return of below- normal temperatures across east central Florida starting Monday morning and continuing through at least Wednesday morning. Winds around 10 mph will also lead to wind chill values falling below 35 degrees across much of east central Florida on Monday and Tuesday mornings, and considerations for another Cold Weather Advisory may be needed. Conditions look to be a bit more borderline on Wednesday morning, but it will still be a chilly start to the morning. There also continues to be a signal for patchy frost development across rural portions of east central Florida Monday and Tuesday mornings, but this will continue to be monitored. Afternoon highs will gradually warm through the extended period, and low temperatures also warm closer to normal values by Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions are anticipated to gradually improve today as high pressure settles across the area. Winds are forecast to fall to around 10 knots out of the north this morning, with seas responding by slowly subsiding to below 6 feet. Generally favorable conditions return on Saturday with seas of 1 to 3 feet. Another cold front is forecast to push southward across the local waters on Sunday, with increasing rain chances out ahead of the front and increasing winds and seas forecast behind the front. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will return to the Gulf Stream waters Sunday night into Monday as seas reach 7 feet and northwest winds reach 15 to 23 knots, and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed once again. High pressure then builds once more across the waters behind the front, with winds falling to 10 to 15 knots and seas remaining around 3 to 6 feet through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 600 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR. NWRLY winds continue to diminish thru early this morning. Winds light/variable through the day, but will transition onshore at the coast in the afternoon. Skies generally unlimited, though may see some SCT stratocu at the southern coastal sites in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast across portions of east central Florida today. A cool, dry air mass remains in place today, resulting in minimum RH values falling into the 25 to 35 percent range near and northwest of the I-4 corridor. Values range from 35 to 50 percent elsewhere. High pressure located across the Gulf and Florida will cause winds to be light and variable at times today, helping to keep the area away from critical fire weather thresholds.

Looking ahead, fire weather conditions continue to improve through this weekend as moisture increases. However, another passing cold front on Sunday and dry air settling behind the front will lead to sensitive conditions once again on Monday as minimum RH values fall once again below 35 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 58 42 70 51 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 60 44 72 53 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 61 48 72 54 / 0 0 10 20 VRB 63 48 72 54 / 0 0 10 20 LEE 58 41 71 51 / 0 0 0 20 SFB 59 43 72 53 / 0 0 0 20 ORL 59 45 72 54 / 0 0 0 20 FPR 64 48 73 54 / 0 0 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555- 572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ570.