textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist across the coastal waters into tonight.

- High pressure builds this week with increasing warm and dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Current-Tonight...Northerly winds this afternoon continue to veer NERLY tonight. Wind speeds increase to around 15 mph into late afternoon with higher gusts. Speeds gradually diminish thru late evening and overnight. Generally drier conditions developing over land but there will be ISOLD-SCT shower chances over the local coastal waters later this afternoon into tonight. However, we could see a few "low-topped" showers push onto land (Space/Treasure coasts) this evening and tonight as low-level winds veer. Low stratus clouds continue to be stubborn and remain forecast to gradually diminish late today into tonight. Cooler highs today behind the latest cold front and will see overnight mins fall into the 50s areawide.

Tue-Fri...High pressure across the eastern CONUS builds along the Atlc Seaboard and then out into the western Atlc during this period. Mainly dry conditions and increasing temperatures will result. Easterly light flow on Tue becomes S/SE on Wed, light SW Thu/Fri, though there will be an ECSB each day with winds becoming onshore along the coast Wed-Fri and slow transition inland each afternoon. Highs in the 70s areawide on Tue, U70s at the coast and L80s inland on Wed, 80F-86F areawide on Thu & 80F-88F on Fri - warmest temps interior. Lows continue mainly in the 50s, though some L60s within reach near larger metropolitan areas and along the immediate coast. Expect increasing drought and fire weather sensitivities to resume into late week. There may be some fog potential returning in the overnight/early morning period near mid to late week.

Weekend...Mid-level high pressure across the Bahamas & western Atlc previously supporting near zonal winds aloft, will transition further seaward with the approach of an upper trough. This feature will drive our next cold frontal boundary through central FL sometime this weekend. At present, only a SCHC for showers is forecast with this boundary. Temperatures remain well above climo into Sat (80s), with a potential slight cool-down on Sun (still above seasonal) - though may be dependent on timing of the aforementioned front. Lows continue in the U50s to L60s, and there may be a post-frontal cool-down Mon morning - generally L-M50s, except U40s for portions of north Lake and north Volusia counties.

MARINE

Issued at 249 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

A weak cold frontal boundary continues to slide southward down the peninsula this afternoon. Winds are veering north behind it and further NNE/NE/ENE tonight. Wind speeds increasing to 15-20 kts with seas building 3-5 ft near shore and 5-7 ft well offshore tonight. Some marginal Exercise Caution/Small Craft Advisory conditions may result. Heading into Tue thru the remainder of the work-week high pressure builds from the southeast U.S. out into the western Atlc. Decreasing winds becoming ERLY on Tue, SE/S Tue night - Wed and a light offshore component Thu/Fri, though there will be a weak sea breeze at the coast each aftn Wed-Fri, which will "back" winds onshore for a period before "veering" to offshore again in the evening/overnight periods. ISOLD-SCT light showers spread across the local waters this evening and overnight before dry conditions build into the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Low clouds across Volusia, Seminole and northern Brevard counties are building back inland, with MVFR cigs expected to linger through this evening hours near to north of KMCO/KISM. As low level flow just off the surface veers gradually onshore, cloud bases should gradually rise overnight through Tuesday morning, with cigs forecast to be mostly VFR. However, can't rule out some lingering MVFR cigs, especially at the coast. Isolated onshore moving showers will also be possible tonight into early Tuesday morning near to south of KMLB, potentially producing brief MVFR conditions. Any showers at the coast should diminish by late morning, with VFR conditions forecast through the afternoon.

Northerly winds up to 7-12 knots will diminish to 5-7 knots into tonight, and eventually become easterly around 9-12 knots across the entire area tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 249 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Winds shift north/northeast behind the most recent weak cold front, becoming gusty. High pressure builds behind the front this week leading to an extended period of warm and dry conditions. Min RH sensitivities increase from Wednesday onward while winds are forecast to remain less than 10 mph, though could be a bit higher along the coast. The next cold front is expected later next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 54 73 55 80 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 56 77 56 82 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 57 74 58 79 / 20 10 0 0 VRB 58 75 57 80 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 53 77 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 54 76 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 56 77 57 82 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 56 76 57 81 / 20 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.