textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Above normal temperatures persist through Thursday, with values near record highs.

- Rain and storm chances increase into Thursday afternoon and evening, with the approach of a cold front. Medium to high rain chances then persist into this weekend.

- Deteriorating beach and boating conditions forecast late this week, as increasing winds cause seas to build.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Currently-Tonight...Very warm and dry conditions will continue through the afternoon. Should still see record highs tied or broken across some if not all inland sites (Orlando/Sanford/Leesburg) as max temps reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Sea breeze boundaries will push inland and collide near the I-4 corridor near to just after sunset, but not forecasting any shower development to occur as airmass remains quite dry (PW values 1.1-1.2"). Dry conditions prevail overnight, with mild temps as lows only fall to the mid to upper 60s. Hi-res guidance showing little to no support for fog development tonight as low level S/SW winds increase overnight, and HREF probabilities for visibilities less than a mile are less than 10 percent. Can't completely rule out patchy fog for late tonight into early Thursday morning, but there is not enough confidence to add it into the forecast at this time.

Thursday-Friday...Breezy southwest winds develop into Thursday as a cold front approaches Florida in the morning and eventually moves into central Florida late in the day and into the evening. It will remain dry into much of the morning and early afternoon, with temps remaining well above normal and nearing records (especially for the Treasure Coast) as highs reach the mid to upper 80s. A band of showers and isolated storms will move into the area ahead of the front. This activity is forecast to reach Lake and Volusia counties by mid afternoon Thursday and continue southward across the area through late afternoon into the evening hours as it weakens. Rain chances range from 60-70% north of Orlando and decrease to 30-50% across the remainder of east central Florida through the afternoon/evening time frame. Cape is modest around 500-1000 J/kg, but still sufficient for some storm development to occur. Increasing W/SW winds between 925-700mb (up to 20-35 knots) and drier air aloft may lead to a few strong storms producing frequent lightning and strong wind gusts to 40-45 mph. Cool 500mb temps around -10 to -12C may also allow any stronger storms to produce small hail.

Frontal boundary will slow and eventually stall near to south of the area through Thursday night into Friday. Winds quickly veer onshore, with lingering moisture continuing scattered showers and isolated storms across the area Friday. Greatest rain chances (up to 30-50 percent) are forecast near to south of Orlando. Highs will be near to slightly above normal, reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.

Saturday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The Atlantic ridge axis builds briefly back towards the Florida peninsula this weekend. However, unsettled weather aloft, with additional short waves, and increasing PWATs creeping above 1.5" will maintain medium to high rain chances. PoPs 50-70% Saturday increase further into Sunday, as winds veer from onshore to southerly and advect in the highest moisture of the weekend. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible, as the mid-levels moisten and CAPE increases. Rain chances continue through early next week, with a stronger cold frontal passage Monday night. Temperatures in the 80s through Monday fall below normal into mid-week behind the front and remain in the 60s and lower 70s. Will see lows drop as well, from the 60s this weekend to the 40s and 50s into Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

MARINE

Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Tonight-Friday...Atlantic high pressure extending across Florida today will shift south and east as a cold front moves through the Southeast U.S. and towards FL early Thursday. Poor boating conditions develop offshore as south-southeast winds around 10-15 knots increase to 15-20 knots offshore into tonight through Thursday morning. Winds then veer to the south-southwest tomorrow, before a cold front pushes into the waters late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, stalling south of the Cape. Hazardous boating conditions develop late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as front moves in, with winds becoming N/NE and increasing to 20-25 knots, building seas to 6-9 feet through Friday morning. Could also see some occasional gusts to gale force north of the Cape into Thursday evening as initial wind surge builds in. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued with this package starting for the Volusia County waters at 5 PM Thursday and expanding across the rest of the waters at 10 PM Thursday evening. Winds become onshore Friday and decrease to 10-15 knots into the afternoon. However, hazardous seas up to 7-8 feet will continue over the gulf stream waters through at least Friday evening, with a Small Craft Advisory remaining in place across these waters through that time frame.

It will remain dry through Thursday morning, and then a band of showers and isolated storms will move into the waters ahead of the front from mid afternoon Thursday into Thursday night (rain chances increasing to 60-80%). Main threats from any storms will be lightning strikes, small hail and strong gusty winds as they shift offshore. Showers and isolated storms will then continue across the waters into Friday (rain chances around 40-60%) as front lingers across the area.

Saturday-Monday...Boating conditions improve briefly into Saturday as onshore winds continue to decrease and seas fall to 3-5 feet. However, high rain chances (up to 60-80%) continue into the weekend, with isolated to scattered storms continuing to be possible. Boating conditions then deteriorate once again into late weekend/early next week, as winds veer to the south-southeast into Sunday and increase up to 15-20 knots offshore, veering to the south-southwest into Monday ahead of a stronger cold front. The cold front is currently forecast to move through the waters into Monday night, with winds increasing out of the north-northwest, producing hazardous boating conditions.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 758 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions through at least tomorrow afternoon. Model guidance is indicating that MVFR CIGs will develop tomorrow evening behind the main band of convection and the cold front. Southeast winds 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT this afternoon will become light and variable overnight. Winds then become southwest and increase to 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT by Thursday mid-morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and storms are forecast out ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Have included VCTS starting at 20/22Z for all terminals. Have not included any tempos at this time, but some may be added when timing and confidence in creases. Winds then northwest Thursday afternoon before becoming northerly Thursday evening behind the front. Winds will decrease slightly overnight to 08-13KT with gusts to around 20 KT at times.

CLIMATE

Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate sites:

Mar 11 Mar 12 Monthly March DAB 89 1967 90 1935 92 3/28/1994* LEE 88 2015 88 2001 92 3/26/2023* SFB 88 1974 90 2001 94 3/20/2003 MCO 91 1918 89 2001 97 3/30/1907 MLB 89 1962 90 1962 93 3/28/1994 VRB 88 1986 88 2023 93 3/31/2020* FPR 90 1997 89 1948 93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 66 85 60 77 / 0 70 40 20 MCO 67 87 63 80 / 0 50 30 30 MLB 67 86 65 79 / 0 40 50 30 VRB 66 87 66 80 / 0 40 50 40 LEE 67 84 59 80 / 0 60 30 20 SFB 67 87 61 80 / 0 60 30 20 ORL 68 86 62 80 / 0 50 30 30 FPR 64 87 64 80 / 0 40 50 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570.