textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 229 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast remain extremely sensitive to any additional rainfall. Avoid flooded roads, and do not walk or wade through floodwater! - Rain chances decrease to 20-30% tonight into Wednesday, with most areas rain-free from Thursday through the weekend.

- Hazardous beach conditions persist through midweek, with a high risk of life-threatening rip currents and rough surf at all east coast beaches of Central Florida. Please stay out of the ocean.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Currently-Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through this evening (PoPs 20-40%), with greatest coverage focusing inland or across west central Florida. However, some of this activity will still be able to push onshore this afternoon into tonight. While amounts should mostly remain an inch or less, isolated higher totals up to 2-3" will still be possible (mostly across the interior). While floodwaters are slowly subsiding from the excessive rainfall from the past couple of days, especially across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast, any additional rainfall will only exacerbate ongoing flooding issues. A Flood Warning remains in effect for this area through tomorrow morning, mainly to address the ongoing road closures and lingering flooding impacts.

Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to 5-10 mph tonight, with mild overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Friday...High pressure north of the area and offshore the eastern U.S. coast will continue an onshore flow that will gradually decrease through late week. Rain chances decrease to 20-30% Wednesday and then mostly remain out of the forecast through late week as drier air builds into the area. Highs remain above normal in the mid 80s, with overnight lows dropping into the 60s as onshore flow weakens and drier air moves in.

Saturday-Monday...A weak front will push through the area Saturday, with conditions currently forecast to remain mostly dry through the weekend. A passing mid level S/W trough may lead to an increase in rain chances early next week, but model guidance is still not in the best of agreement. For now, PoPs only rise to 20-30% on Monday. N/NW flow behind the front will lead to a gradual drop in temps, with highs in the low to mid 80s on Saturday falling to the mid 70s to near 80 degrees on Monday. Overnight lows are also forecast to decrease from the 60s into the weekend, with upper 50s possible, mainly near to NW of I-4 into Monday night.

MARINE

Issued at 229 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Tonight-Wednesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will only slowly improve through tonight into tomorrow. High pressure offshore the eastern U.S. coast will maintain a moderate to fresh onshore breeze across the waters. Wind speeds up to 15-20 knots offshore into tonight decrease to 10-15 knots Wednesday. Seas also gradually decrease from 5-7 feet to 4-6 feet late tonight into tomorrow. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the entire waters through 7 PM this evening, and then persists across the offshore waters into much of tonight. Small craft will need to continue to exercise caution offshore into Wednesday for seas lingering up to 6 feet. Isolated showers will continue to develop across the waters, moving west and onshore through Wednesday.

Thursday-Sunday...Boating conditions continue to improve into late week, with onshore winds decreasing to 5-10 knots. Seas will initially drop to 3-5 feet on Thursday and then bump up to 6 feet offshore on Friday. A weak front pushes through Saturday, with winds becoming N/NW into the weekend, but speeds are forecast to remain below 15 knots. Seas will continue to range from 4-6 feet. Isolated showers and potentially a storm or two will be possible, mainly into the weekend across the offshore waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 630 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Easterly winds persist around 5 knots overnight along with mostly dry, VFR conditions at all terminals. Winds pick up to around 10 knots after 14Z, with mostly dry conditions areawide. There remains a low chance for VCSH from MLB southward, with chances shifting towards MCO, ISM, and LEE after 19Z. Will closely monitor these trends as recent guidance has backed off a bit on coverage, but included it within the forecast for now. Activity will diminish across the interior by 00Z, with light easterly winds continuing through tomorrow night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 83 68 84 / 20 10 0 0 MCO 71 86 69 86 / 10 20 10 10 MLB 74 84 71 84 / 20 20 0 0 VRB 74 85 70 85 / 20 20 10 0 LEE 70 86 69 86 / 20 30 10 10 SFB 71 86 69 86 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 71 86 70 86 / 10 20 10 10 FPR 73 84 70 84 / 20 20 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ159- 164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552- 555.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ575.