textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions are forecast across east central Florida through late week. Heading to the beach and entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding, moderate to major beach erosion and a HIGH risk of rip currents are forecast over the next several days.

- Scattered onshore-moving showers are forecast over the Treasure Coast today. Increasing moisture will bring higher coverage of showers Wednesday with isolated lightning strikes and locally heavy rain possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Current-Tuesday Night...Surface high pressure remains fixated across the eastern CONUS as weak low pressure develops near the Bahamas. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient as persistent, gusty NERLY winds continue across ECFL. Highest winds become sustained 20- 25 mph with frequent gusts to 35-40 mph (highest near the coast) this afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory for all of east central FL (except Lake County) into early evening. Winds will decrease slightly into the evening, but will still be breezy/gusty at times and future shifts can decide to carry (or not) the WI.Y at the coast longer. Lower coverage of precip early this morning as drier air builds in north of the Treasure Coast. Rather tight gradient today for precip, with 10-20% chances near Melbourne northward and increasing up to 70% southward into Martin County where moisture is deepest. Moisture does surge northward again late today/tonight and precip chances increase back north toward the Cape. Will have to monitor for heavy rainfall potential late today/tonight across the Treasure Coast. Isolated wind gusts may still approach 35-45 mph in onshore-moving convection later today.

Afternoon max temps remain near seasonal, 80F to L80s. Min overnight temps along/northwest of I-4 in the U60s and generally around 70F to L70s elsewhere - perhaps M70s for many across barrier islands.

Plenty of dangerous coastal/marine hazards continue as numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents and rough surf remain present at all local beaches. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for large breaking waves 7-11 ft in the surf zone. Entering the water is not advised! Pounding surf and persistent long period onshore swells will continue Moderate to Major beach erosion at times of high tide. This significant coastal event coincides with a period of astronomical high tides, and Minor to Moderate flooding is also forecast. During the morning high tide cycles saltwater flooding will impact low-lying roads, lots, docks, and yards near the coast and intracoastal waterways. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect.

Wed-Mon...High pressure across the eastern U.S. does show a weakening trend into the weekend as it is pushed seaward with approach of a developing low pressure system. Gusty onshore winds continue into mid-week, then a gradual relaxing of the pressure gradient occurs, but breezy onshore flow during the day will continue into Sat. Poor to hazardous coastal/marine conditions continue alongside the period of high astronomical tide cycles. Highest PoPs still slated for Wed/Thu during this period as another surge of moisture is poised to move across the region. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast with highs in the L-M80s. Lows continue above climo well into the 60s to L70s at least thru Sun morning.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Unsettled weather pattern continues as gusty NE winds will be slow to abate thru mid-week. There is gradual improvement in onshore winds past this time, but may be periods of 15-20 kt breezes over the open Atlc. Seas will remain hazardous thru late Thu, then some minor/slow improvement may occur, but still could be facing Exercise Caution to Advisory conditions offshore thru much of extended. Gale Warnings gradually give way to Small Craft Advisories later today/tonight. Scattered, gusty, onshore-moving showers continue across the Treasure Coast today as drier air limits shower activity northward. However, moisture does surge back into the area late today and into Wed/Thu and SCT-NMRS showers/ISOLD lighting storms will be forecast, once again.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A few passing light showers will be possible near to north of KMLB this afternoon. However, greatest shower coverage and best potential for brief MVFR conditions will remain along the Treasure Coast today. Moisture will gradually build back northward though, and combine with the fresh N/NE breeze to generate increasing rain chances tonight into Wednesday. Model guidance also indicating increasing potential for predominant MVFR cigs, especially north of the Treasure Coast into tomorrow. Higher coverage of showers and potentially a few storms, will also lead to additional tempo IFR/MVFR cig/vis reductions.

Breezy/windy N/NE winds will continue today, with speeds up to 15-20 knots and gusts to 25-30 knots. Winds decrease slightly to 10-15 knots across the interior past sunset, but remain breezy/windy along the coast. Winds increase again over the interior tomorrow by late morning into the afternoon. However, overall wind speeds across east central Florida may be a tad lower, around 13-18 knots, with gusts 22-28 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 80 73 81 / 10 60 50 60 MCO 73 82 73 85 / 30 60 30 40 MLB 74 82 74 83 / 60 60 50 40 VRB 74 84 73 85 / 70 60 50 30 LEE 70 81 71 84 / 10 40 30 40 SFB 73 81 73 84 / 20 60 50 60 ORL 73 82 73 85 / 30 60 40 40 FPR 74 84 74 85 / 70 60 50 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-045-046-053- 058-141-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552.

Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-570-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ555-570-572-575.