textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

- A high risk of rip currents persists at area beaches and will likely continue through early this week, along with lingering poor boating conditions in the Gulf Stream.

- Drought conditions and lower humidity values through midweek combine to produce fire sensitive conditions.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures return this week with any notable rain chances likely holding off until next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tonight-Tuesday...High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic shifts southeast and offshore early this week, with ridge axis extending across Florida as the high settles across the west Atlantic. This will continue dry conditions and overall light winds across the area. A gradual warming trend begins, with highs closer to even just slightly above normal in the 70s. However, lows tonight and Monday night will still be below normal in the 40s.

The influence of high pressure will favor fog development each night. Some of the hi-res guidance such as the HRRR is a little more bullish on dense fog formation tonight. However, MOS guidance is a little less enthused. For now have added patchy fog wording to the forecast for late tonight through early Monday morning, with localized visibilities of a half mile or less possible.

At the beaches, a high risk of life-threatening rip currents will likely continue into early this week due to an incoming long-period swell. Do not let the warmer conditions catch you off guard. Entering the water is discouraged!

Wednesday-Friday...High pressure across the west Atlantic shifts farther offshore midweek, as a weak frontal boundary approaches Florida. Model guidance shows this boundary at least moving into the coastal waters from the northeast, before stalling and fading into late week. High stay near to slightly above normal in the 70s for most locations and low 80s possible across the interior south of Orlando, with overnight lows near normal in the 50s. Dry conditions forecast to mostly continue across land areas through late week, but frontal boundary may lead to the development of isolated to scattered showers across the coastal waters.

Saturday-Sunday...12Z model guidance coming into better agreement with forecast details into the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a mid level S/W trough shifting eastward from the Southern Plains eastward through Florida. This leads to surface low pressure development that tracks through the Southeast U.S. and eventually drags a cold front through central Florida into late weekend, increasing rain chances (currently up to 30-40% for Sunday). Temperatures look to remain near to slightly above normal into the weekend ahead of the frontal passage.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tonight-Monday...High pressure toward the Mid-Atlantic coast will shift southeast and offshore into Monday. Winds will remain generally light (less than 10 knots) and somewhat variable into tonight before becoming more predominately out of the north into Monday. A lingering swell will continue to produce seas up to 6 feet over the Gulf Stream waters. There may be some occasional seas still up to 7 feet offshore, but given the lighter winds and increasing swell periods (up to 11-12sec), will end the Small Craft Advisory. However, small craft will still need to exercise caution across the Gulf Stream through tonight into Monday as seas up to 6 feet persist through at least the early afternoon, diminishing to 3-5 feet by late afternoon into Monday night.

Tuesday-Friday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will extend across Florida into Tuesday, with high pressure then shifting farther offshore into midweek as another weak front approaches the area. This boundary will push through the waters Thursday as it gradually fades into late week. Winds remain somewhat light and variable into Tuesday, with speeds less than 10 knots, and then pick up out of the S/SW up to 10-15 knots Tuesday night, veering to the west on Wednesday. Poor boating conditions will exist again across the Gulf Stream on Tuesday as swells increase seas back to 6 feet offshore. Small craft will also need to exercise caution near inlets as swell periods increase up to 12-13 seconds.

Boating conditions then become a little more favorable into Wednesday as seas fall to 3-5 feet, and look to remain favorable for much of late week as frontal passage currently doesn't look to create much of a surge in northerly winds. However, isolated to scattered showers will be possible along and behind this boundary.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1231 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

A weak sea breeze has developed, shifting winds onshore around 7-10 kts at coastal terminals this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure across the region will keep winds light and variable, especially overnight. There is low confidence in patchy fog developing across portions of east central Florida early Monday morning, and have kept TAFs VFR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Influence of high pressure extending across the area will keep winds relatively light, generally under 10 mph, through early this week. Winds will be out of the north-northeast Monday, with a more variable direction on Tuesday. Airmass will remain dry, with near to below critical Min RH values forecast, particularly over interior east central Florida. Min RH values are forecast to fall as low as 30-35% inland tomorrow afternoon and 25-35% across the interior on Tuesday afternoon. Smoke dispersion will be poor to fair Monday, becoming fair to generally good on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 45 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 47 73 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 47 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 47 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 44 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 45 73 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 47 73 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 45 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.