textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

- East Central Florida residents and visitors should take advantage of today's pleasant weather to prepare for multiple nights of hard freezes this weekend.

- Very windy conditions develop Saturday with strong frequent wind gusts 35 to 45 mph; occasional gusts over 50 mph possible. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of east central Florida Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Preparations for the cold should be made before these winds d arrive.

- A Freeze Warning and a rare Extreme Cold Warning have been issued for all of east central Florida Saturday night into Sunday. Dangerous wind chill values as low as 7 degrees and a hard freeze likely with low temperatures in the 20s Sunday morning. Additional watches/warnings for the following nights are likely.

- A Gale Warning has been issued for rapidly deteriorating and dangerous boating conditions Saturday afternoon and night as winds increase and seas build; strong gale-force gusts are likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Today-Tonight... Ridging aloft will remain in place with short wave energy traversing across the Florida peninsula today as an upper level low drops down from the Midwest into the Deep South into tonight. At the surface, weak high pressure over Florida will push offshore ahead of a low pressure system developing over and tracking across the Deep South. Locally, light and variable winds will turn westerly and increase to 5-10 mph this afternoon. While most areas will remain dry today, there is a low (20 percent) chance of showers across St. Lucie and Martin counties today as moisture from the Bahamas lifts northward into the Treasure coast and southeast Florida, resulting in a few showers across those areas. However, CAM guidance is still showing some rain chances across the rest of the CWA into this afternoon. Confidence is very low this will occur since the environment doesn't support rain chances across those areas (so kept rain chances at 10 percent or lower).

Near normal temperatures are forecast today before well below normal, and even historic, temperatures are forecast into this weekend. Because of this, today presents a perfect opportunity to prepare for the arctic air outbreak and strong winds this weekend. Afternoon highs today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly sunny skies. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.

Saturday-Sunday... An upper level low pressure will swing into and across the Deep South on Saturday and offshore the eastern US on Sunday as it lifts northward. At the surface, a low pressure system across the Deep South will push eastward on Saturday, deepening as it pushes offshore the GA/Carolina coast in the afternoon. This will push the associated strong cold front quickly across the Florida peninsula through the day Saturday. High pressure off the TX/LA coasts will then build eastward across the Florida peninsula on Sunday. This cold front will result in significant winds and historic cold temperatures across the local areas this weekend. Forecast PW values are around 0.8-1.1" ahead of the front on Saturday before dropping to 0.3-0.5" behind the front on Saturday, and 0.1-0.2" on Sunday. This brief increase in moisture ahead of the front will support a low (20-30 percent) chance of showers Saturday morning across all of east central Florida (with the highest potential from Cape Canaveral to Kissimmee southward). Lightning storms are not forecast at this time. Dry conditions will then spread across the area behind the front into Sunday, resulting in no mentionable rain chances through that time.

The pressure gradient across the local area will quickly tighten on Saturday as the low rapidly deepens offshore. This will result in the west-northwesterly winds increasing to 20-30 mph with frequent gusts 35-45 mph, and there is a 20-30% chance for gusts to exceed 50 mph, Saturday afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Winds are then forecast to decrease to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph inland during the overnight hours. Will continue to monitor forecast trends as there is a potential for higher gusts to linger longer in the overnight hours. North-northwest winds at 15-20 mph (gusts up to 25 mph possible) Sunday morning will decrease to 10-15 mph in the afternoon, and 5-10 mph Sunday night.

Historic cold temperatures are forecast this weekend as strong cold air advection on the western side of the low brings down arctic air across Florida. Temperatures Saturday will only reach the mid 50s to mid 60s around 2 PM before plummeting to Low 40s to mid 50s by sunset, with sub-freezing temperatures arriving in the northern counties prior to midnight. A hard freeze is forecast for all of East Central Florida for much of Saturday night and Sunday morning, as well as Sunday night into Monday morning as temperatures continue to crash into the low to mid 20s across the interior, including all of the Orlando Metro Area, and mid to upper 20 along the coastal corridor. These forecast lows are about 5-10 degrees below daily records for most locations (Orlando is forecast to be 3 degrees below their record low temperature), and threatening the coldest temperatures for the month of February for all but Orlando. These cold temperatures combined with the strong and gusty northwest winds, will produce wind chills that are bitterly cold during the day, and dangerous in the evening and overnight, as values drop into the 20s shortly after sunset, before decreasing to the single digits and teens late Saturday night into Sunday morning, and into the teens and 20s Sunday night into Monday morning. Sunday temperatures will remain about 2-10 degrees below daily record "cool highs" with afternoon highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.

An Extreme Cold Warning and a Freeze Warning have been issued for all of east central Florida from Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Like the previous shift stated, the last time this product (called a Wind Chill Warning at that time) was issued by NWS Melbourne was January 2014 (just for Lake and Volusia Counties), and the last time it was issued for ALL of east central Florida was December 2010. People and pets with inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected. Thus, please prepare for multiple nights of dangerous cold weather! Additional Extreme Cold and Freeze Watch/Warnings will likely be needed for Sunday night into Monday morning for portions if not all of the CWA. A High Surf Advisory will likely be needed Saturday evening into early next week for beach erosion and rough surf.

Monday-Thursday... High pressure axis will remain over the Florida peninsula through early week with the center of high pressure moving over the Florida peninsula from the west on Tuesday. The center of high pressure will then shift offshore into the Atlantic midweek ahead of the next cold front. Locally, winds will continue to diminish through early week as winds turn from the northwest on Monday to the north to northeast on Tuesday. Winds will then turn west to southwest on Wednesday and northwest on Thursday ahead of the next cold front. There remains uncertainty with this next frontal passage, as global models continue to have considerable differences with the evolution. However, this frontal passage is not forecast to have the same potency as the one we're currently preparing for. Dry conditions are forecast through early week, before rain chances return midweek with isolated showers starting Wednesday night through Thursday.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through the forecast period, despite the warming trend through mid week. Wednesday is forecast to be the closest day to near normal temperatures before decreasing once again on Thursday with the frontal passage (but will remain above record cold). Freezing temperatures will once again be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning for at least portions of east central Florida. While winds will continue to diminish, wind chills dropping into the 20s will remain be possible. Lows then should remain above freezing through the rest of the period, with temperatures slowly increasing into midweek before dropping slightly on Thursday with the front. Frost will become a concern Tuesday night into Wednesday however.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Today-Tonight.... Weak high pressure over the Florida peninsula will push offshore tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast today with poor boating conditions developing late tonight across the offshore waters. West to northwest winds at 5-10 KT this afternoon will increase to 10-15 KT across the nearshore, and 15-20 KT in the offshore tonight. Small craft should exercise caution in the offshore waters tonight. Seas 2-3ft today, increasing up to 5ft in the offshore waters overnight. Isolated to scattered showers possible tonight ahead of the front.

Saturday-Sunday... Deteriorating marine conditions through the period, with dangerous boating conditions through much of the weekend. Mariners should remain in port! The low pressure system will push into the Deep South and then offshore the GA/Carolina coast Saturday, rapidly deepening as it pushes offshore. The associated cold front is then forecast to push through the local Atlantic waters Saturday. Northwesterly winds will increase to 20-30 KT late Saturday morning behind the front, then surge to 30-40 KT Saturday night. Gusts will frequently reach high-end Gale strength, and occasional gusts to Storm-force cannot be ruled out Saturday night. Seas will build 3-5 ft in the nearshore and 5-8 ft in the afternoon on Saturday, before increasing to 8-12 ft in the nearshore waters and 12-17 ft in the offshore waters Saturday night. As the low lifts northeast Sunday winds will slacken to 25-35 KT with higher gusts through much of the day. This will result in seas beginning to subside, with seas up to 10 ft in the nearshore waters and up to 14 ft in the offshore waters by Sunday evening. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible Saturday and Saturday night. There is potential for flurries over portions of the local Atlantic waters Saturday night. No lightning storms are forecast at this time.

A Gale Warning has been issued for all central Florida Atlantic waters starting 10 AM Saturday and going through Sunday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for all the Atlantic waters the rest of Sunday, and at least portions of the local waters through at least Monday.

Monday-Tuesday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue through early next week as high pressure builds over Florida behind the departing low. Lingering seas of 5-11 ft on Monday morning will subside to 4-7ft by Tuesday afternoon. Northwest winds will dominate through the period while slowly diminishing. Small Craft Advisory and small craft cautionary headlines will likely be needed through early week. Dry conditions are forecast through the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 640 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions persist through the overnight hours, with northwest winds becoming light and variable to calm at times through 12Z. Tomorrow, a strengthening area of low pressure will bring a cold front across east central Florida. VCSH will be possible after 12Z at all terminals except DAB and LEE, lingering through late morning into the early afternoon hours before diminishing entirely. West-northwest winds increase steadily throughout the day, with peak winds of 20 to 25 knots and gusts to 35 knots anticipated at all east central Florida terminals. Gusts to 45 knots cannot be ruled out. Airport Weather Warnings may be needed at MCO and DAB for sustained winds of 25 knots and greater, but will continue to closely monitor. Strong winds are forecast to continue through Saturday night, with cold air anticipated areawide.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Strong and gusty winds 35-45 mph, possibly over 50 mph Saturday afternoon will lead to containment issues of any fires. Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday as humidity drops below 35% while northwesterly winds remain around 15 mph with higher gusts. Winds decrease to 10 mph or less Monday, but fire weather conditions remain sensitive due to humidity values less than 30%.

CLIMATE

Issued at 635 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Sunday, February 1st: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb 30 1936 49 47 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 1-Feb 30 1979 50 52 1978 71 Sanford (SFB) 1-Feb 30 1965 51 46 1977 72 Orlando (MCO) 1-Feb 28 1936 51 48 1936 73 Melbourne (MLB) 1-Feb 32 1966 52 55 1948 72 Vero Beach (VRB) 1-Feb 29 1966 53 56 1966 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 1-Feb 32 1909 52 54 1936 74

Monday, February 2nd: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb 32 1980 50 51 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 2-Feb 29 1980 50 48 1980 71 Sanford (SFB) 2-Feb 33 1980 51 49 1980 72 Orlando (MCO) 2-Feb 32 1980 51 54 1951 73 Melbourne (MLB) 2-Feb 33 1980 52 55 1994 73 Vero Beach (VRB) 2-Feb 34 1980 53 55 1980 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 2-Feb 34 1980 52 57 1994 74

All Time February Records: RECORD RECORD LOWS COOL-HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 24 02/18/1958 43 02/09/1947 Leesburg (LEE) 23 02/26/1967 42 02/05/1996 Sanford (SFB) 25 02/18/1958 38 02/03/1951 Orlando (MCO) 19 02/07/1895 39 02/08/1895 Melbourne (MLB) 27 02/26/1967 43 02/09/1947 Vero Beach (VRB) 28 02/24/1989 46 02/09/1947 Fort Pierce (FPR) 25 02/05/1996 43 02/04/1917

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 46 56 23 45 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 49 58 25 46 / 20 20 0 0 MLB 49 63 23 48 / 20 20 0 0 VRB 48 63 26 49 / 20 30 0 0 LEE 46 55 22 45 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 47 57 24 45 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 49 57 25 45 / 10 20 0 0 FPR 47 64 25 50 / 20 30 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447- 547-647-747.

Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747.

Freeze Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447- 547-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ550- 552-555-570-572-575.