textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers possible along the Treasure Coast this morning, with dry conditions anticipated over the weekend and into the start of next week.

- Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions are forecast to linger over the next few days. A High risk of rip currents continues today and will likely persist this weekend. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

- Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions forecast today and will remain sensitive into the weekend. - A gradual warming trend is forecast through the period, with temperatures reaching above normal values this weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Today-Tonight...Mid-level trough pushing through Florida shifts offshore this morning. This will continue to help generate isolated to scattered showers across the waters that will be capable of pushing onshore along the Treasure Coast this morning (rain chances around 20-30%). Increasing instability and the passing disturbance aloft may also lead to isolated lightning storm development across the gulf stream waters, south of the Cape, but chances remain low (~20 percent) and any storms should remain offshore. A relatively tight pressure gradient will persist today with high pressure to the north of the region. While winds are not forecast to be as strong as yesterday, they will still be breezy, especially along the coast, with northeast winds up to 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph. Across inland areas, wind speeds will be closer to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Warming trend will continue, with highs close but still a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 70s. A High Risk of rip currents remains at area beaches today. Entering the rough and choppy surf is not advised today.

Northerly winds diminish to 5-10 mph or less into tonight. These weakening winds and mostly clear skies will lead to favorable radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will fall to near to below normal values (upper 40s to mid 50s), and patchy fog will be possible, especially near to north of the I-4 corridor late tonight where boundary layer winds will be weaker.

Saturday-Monday...High pressure settles southward and will be centered over the Gulf into Saturday, with high then shifting eastward across the area through late weekend into early next week. This will allow winds to relax and continue dry conditions across the area, with highs trending warmer than normal. Max temps will reach the low 80s for most locations Saturday and then will range from the low to mid 80s both Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will still drop to near to slightly below normal values, mostly in the 50s, due to lighter winds and the dry airmass in place.

While the dry and warmer than normal conditions will attract more beachgoers, a lingering swell will likely maintain a High Risk of rip currents along the east central Florida coast through the weekend. Entering the surf will still be strongly discouraged!

Tuesday-Thursday...A front is forecast to push southward into the area Tuesday, increasing rain and thunderstorm chances through midweek. Currently PoPs are modest around 20-30 percent, with just a slight chance of storms. However, these may trend higher once there is more confidence in the model guidance. This front will be weak, with onshore flow quickly developing behind the boundary. This will keep temperatures above normal through the period, with highs still forecast in the low to mid 80s.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Today-Saturday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist through today and into Saturday. High pressure north of the area will maintain a tight pressure gradient keeping northeast winds around 15-20 knots today, but as high pressure settles southward into the Gulf and across FL, winds will diminish to 5-10 knots out of the N/NW tomorrow. Seas will be slower to decrease, with wave heights still up to 7-8 feet over the gulf stream and 5-6 feet closer to the coast today, and then ranging from 4-6 feet Saturday.

The Small Craft Advisory will continue across the entire coastal waters through 10 AM this morning and then persist across the Gulf Stream waters through 10 PM this evening. Small craft will still need to exercise caution across the nearshore waters of Volusia and Brevard counties from late morning into the afternoon for seas up to 6 feet. The Small Craft Advisory will then continue for the offshore waters overnight tonight through early morning Saturday as seas persist up to 7 feet.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue across the coastal waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast through at least this morning. Also, can't completely rule out an isolated lightning storm or two, mainly across the Gulf Stream waters, south of the Cape. Shower activity then gradually diminishes through the afternoon. Dry conditions will then prevail through early weekend.

Sunday-Tuesday...Boating conditions become more favorable late in the weekend into Monday, with dry conditions continuing as high pressure shifts east across the area. Offshore winds in the morning become S/SE each afternoon and evening as sea breeze develops, with wind speeds generally less than 15 knots. Seas fall to 3-5 feet Sunday to 2-4 feet Monday. There will be the potential for deteriorating boating conditions then later into Tuesday, as a cold front pushes southward into the region, increasing onshore winds, building seas and leading to a rise in shower and thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 630 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Isolated onshore moving showers will continue to be possible through this morning, mainly across the Treasure Coast. Have maintained VCSH for VRB southward through 15Z. While most areas will remain mostly dry today, there is the potential for isolated showers through the afternoon, especially from VRB southward. However confidence is not high enough to include VCSH at this time. N-NE winds at 8-12KT early this morning will increase to 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT around 15Z. There is potential for gusts over 25 KT like there was yesterday, particularly along the coast. Winds will then become more northerly and decrease to around 5 KT Friday evening (around 03Z). Guidance is indicating the potential for patchy fog late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly across and north the I-4 corridor. There is a 20-40% chance of visibilities going down to 3 miles or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast across the area today, with sensitive fire weather conditions continuing into the weekend. High pressure north of the area will maintain breezy northeast winds today, especially along the coast where speeds will increase up to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Wind speeds will be a tad less across the interior, but still elevated around 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 to 25 mph. Near Red Flag conditions are possible this afternoon across the interior as Min RH values fall to 35 to 40 percent. High pressure then builds southward into the Gulf and across the area this weekend. While this will allow winds to diminish to 5 to 10 mph, the dry airmass in place will allow afternoon Min RH values to fall to critical values, between 25 to 35 percent for much of the area both Saturday and Sunday. Dispersion values will range from Very Good to Excellent today and Generally Good to Very Good Saturday. The breezy winds today and higher dispersion values may lead to control problems of new or existing brush fires.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 75 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 74 55 77 54 / 10 10 0 0 VRB 75 55 78 53 / 20 10 0 0 LEE 76 50 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 76 51 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 76 53 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 75 54 78 52 / 20 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.