textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Windy and warm conditions today will produce very sensitive fire weather conditions.

- A Marginal risk (Level 1/5) of severe storms will exist this evening across northern parts of east central FL. While rain chances are high, rainfall amounts will not have a significant impact on our drought.

- Only slightly cooler Monday with lingering showers. Then warming back up mid week and quickly drying out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Today-Monday... High pressure retreats over the western Atlantic as low pressure moves through the deep south today. Although cloudy early this morning, some breaks are expected into the afternoon allowing for some sunshine. Combined with southerly flow, most areas should be able to reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon. South to south-southwest winds increase to 15-20 mph as a cold front approaches from the west-northwest and the pressure gradient tightens. As 925mb winds increase late in the afternoon, a short window of mixing could allow occasional non convective gusts to near or exceed 35 mph, primarily north and west of Orlando. This remains close to Wind Advisory criteria, but confidence in frequent gusts and overall duration remains low at this time.

Most areas should remain dry through the morning and early afternoon with a limited chance for showers (20-30%) primarily confined to the coast. A line of showers and embedded lightning storms then approaches the area by late afternoon with PoPs increasing from north to south into the evening. Widespread rain chances (70-90%) build southward toward the I-4 corridor between 7pm-11pm as the line moves through the area. The line decays as it moves south of the Cape and through Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast late this evening and into the early morning hours. Strong wind fields and upper forcing from a shortwave trough will produce a risk for strong to marginally severe storms, primarily north of a line from Titusville to Lake Kissimmee during the evening hours. Primary storm hazards include frequent lightning strikes and isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph. Low level shear and helicity profiles will also support a low risk for a tornado. Gusty showers remain possible even in absence of stronger storms. Widespread rain totals look to remain less than one-half inch, but localized higher totals will be possible north of Orlando and the Cape where stronger storms may occur.

The band of diminishing showers moves south of Lake Okeechobee before or shortly after sunrise Monday. Sounding profiles hold a layer of low level moisture below 850mb through the day, and cannot completely discount isolated light showers. Monday's temperatures will widely vary from north to south with low 70s across Volusia and northern Lake counties and upper 70s near Lake Okeechobee.

Tuesday-Saturday... A warm and drying trend sets up through late week as surface high pressure moves into the western Atlantic and height anomalies increase aloft. Highs in the mid 70s along the coast on Tuesday will increase through the mid to upper 70s across the interior. By Wednesday, temperatures quickly warm into the low to mid 80s, building a few degrees each day into the weekend. There are no mentionable rain chances Tuesday through the end of the week, further increasing drought and fire sensitivities.

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Small craft should exercise caution offshore this morning as southerly winds increase 15-20 kts. Boating conditions further deteriorate through late morning and into the afternoon as winds continue to increase ahead of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for the local offshore waters (20-60 nm) at 10am for winds 20-25 kts. The Advisory then expands nearshore (0-20 nm) at 1pm for winds near 20 kts. Seas build 5-7 ft in the Gulf Stream through this evening. Winds gradually diminish into Monday morning, turning northwest to north around 15 kts into the evening. Although seas subside Monday, an increasing swell will build seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream again Tuesday. Favorable boating conditions return mid to late week as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic.

Isolated to scattered showers are forecast across the waters today. A line of showers and embedded storms pushes southward across the waters this evening and overnight bringing high rain chances (70- 90%). Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, primarily north of the Cape. Even outside of stronger storms, showers will be capable of wind gusts of 34 kts. The cluster of showers and storms weakens as it moves south of the Cape, finally pushing south of Jupiter Inlet near or shortly after sunrise Monday. However, additional rain chances should linger across the local waters Monday before drying Tuesday and into mid week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1227 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions prevailing through much of the TAF period. Southerly winds become breezy after 15Z and further increase after 18Z, with sustained winds 15-18 kts and gusts 20-30 kts. Models keep terminals dry ahead of the approaching cold front, so have not included VCSH through the afternoon hours. Then, a line of showers and storms will pass southward through the area, beginning VCTS with LEE/DAB around 23Z. Have held off on TEMPOs at this time, but will likely see inclusion for at least MLB northward in the next package. A few strong to severe storms will be possible along this line, especially near and north of ISM/TIX. Winds slacken into the evening, but remain elevated. MVFR/IFR CIGs possible early Monday morning behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Increasing southerly surface and transport winds will produce sustained winds near 20 mph today, gusting 30-35 mph. This will combine with very warm temperatures to produce high dispersion values and a very fire weather sensitive day. Min RH values are forecast to hold above critical values between 40-50% so Red Flag conditions are not forecast to occur. Nonetheless, given the very dry conditions, any new or existing fires will be capable of spreading rapidly.

Much needed rain will move in this evening and into the overnight associated with a cold front. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be higher across northern sections (Orlando northward) between 0.25- 0.75" and there is a risk there for isolated strong to severe storms containing wind gusts up to 60 mph during the evening hours. Lesser rain amounts between 0.10-0.25" are forecast from Melbourne southward.

Isolated showers may linger Monday with a wind shift out of the northwest to north and breezy along the coast. A warm and drying trend then sets up through the remainder of the week with no mentionable rainfall and temperatures climbing through the 80s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 81 59 70 54 / 50 90 20 10 MCO 83 62 74 58 / 30 90 10 0 MLB 81 59 74 57 / 30 80 20 10 VRB 82 60 77 58 / 20 80 20 10 LEE 81 59 74 54 / 50 90 10 0 SFB 83 61 73 56 / 30 90 20 0 ORL 82 62 74 57 / 30 90 10 0 FPR 82 59 77 56 / 20 70 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572-575.