textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 127 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast: Avoid flooded roads, and do not walk or wade through floodwater!

- Only low rain chances (10-20%) next several days so most areas will remain dry. High temperatures will remain very warm through Friday reaching the mid 80s. A dry cold front will push through Saturday and bring somewhat cooler temperatures.

- Excessive rainfall over the upper St Johns River basin earlier this week is sending a considerable volume of water north through the basin. A prolonged river flood event is ongoing along the Saint Johns River with conditions likely worsening before improvement occurs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Currently-Tonight...There has been just enough moisture for a few showers to develop, mainly along and inland of the Treasure Coast with the inland moving east coast sea breeze. Hi-res guidance indicating some additional isolated shower development is possible farther north across the interior as boundary shifts inland this afternoon and early evening, so have added a slight chance for showers across these areas. Otherwise, much of the region will remain mostly dry and any rainfall that does occur with any stray showers should be light (around a tenth of an inch or less). Low level onshore flow will continue to weaken into tonight, and there exists a better potential (~40-50% chance) for patchy fog development late tonight into early Friday morning. Any fog that forms will be capable of producing localized visibilities of a mile or less, with fog gradually lifting and dissipating soon after daybreak Friday. Friday...Weak front across the southeast U.S. will continue to push slowly southeastward on Friday. Ahead of the front moisture increases ever so slightly, and into the afternoon isolated showers will again be possible near to north of Orlando. Additional development of isolated showers is then forecast farther south across the interior and toward the Volusia/Brevard County coast into the evening. However, not expecting much in the way of rainfall accumulations with this activity. For now have kept rain chances around 20 percent. Highs will remain warmer than normal in the mid 80s, and overnight lows will drop to the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Weak cool front will push southward through central Florida Saturday. Limited moisture with this boundary means it will likely be a dry frontal passage. A wind shift out of the N/NW will announce its passage. Winds gradually veer N/NE Sun and NE Mon as high pressure builds in behind this boundary. GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement showing a weaker mid-level S/W trough moving across the deep South, but timing differences remain on when it crosses Florida into next week. The GFS is the faster of the two, increasing rainfall across the area Wednesday with the ECMWF holding off better rainfall potential until Wednesday night/Thursday. Rain chances for the time being remain out of the forecast this weekend, with only low rain chances (10-20%) for much of the region through the early to middle portion of next week. Given the weaker upper support, severe weather looks unlikely and currently do not have thunder mentioned. Temperatures trend cooler this weekend behind the front though Sat still looks warm in the low to mid 80s. Near normal highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s Sun-Tue. Min temps forecast in the upper 50s NW of I-4 early next week with 60s elsewhere.

MARINE

Issued at 127 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Tonight-Tuesday...Onshore flow will continue to weaken, becoming somewhat light and variable into Friday ahead of an approaching weak cool front. As the front moves through the waters Saturday, winds will switch to the N/NW and increase to 10-15 knots. Winds then veer to the NE on Sunday through early next week as high pressure builds in behind the boundary, with speeds remaining around 10-15 knots. Seas remain around 3-5 feet through late week, and then the combination of wind wave and swell will produce poor boating conditions, especially offshore as seas are forecast to build to 4-6 feet this weekend into early next week. While it should remain mostly dry over the next several days, isolated showers will be possible at times across the waters late this week and into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR conditions continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours with onshore flow continuing around 5 to 10 knots. Light, isolated showers will be possible at times, but confidence was too low to include VCSH at any terminals. After 00Z, light and variable winds overnight will support the development of fog near the interior terminals and at DAB and TIX. Have added a VIS reduction to MVFR at these sites after 09Z. TEMPOs may need to be added for further reductions at some sites, but still a bit too early to make that call. Conditions will improve as winds increase tomorrow morning, shifting to out of the SW around 5 knots. Mostly dry through tomorrow, with a low chance of some light showers across the interior late afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 127 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

River flood warnings are in effect for all St Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise the next several days through Minor and in some cases Moderate Flood stage. The river at Cocoa (COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage into tomorrow with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage early next week. River forecasts are issued twice per day by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 67 84 66 80 / 0 20 20 0 MCO 69 86 69 82 / 10 20 20 0 MLB 70 83 68 82 / 10 10 20 0 VRB 70 84 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 70 86 67 82 / 10 20 10 0 SFB 68 86 68 83 / 10 20 20 0 ORL 69 86 69 83 / 10 20 20 0 FPR 69 83 67 83 / 10 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.