textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Locally dense fog development likely across east central Florida again tonight into Monday morning. Visibility reductions of 1 mile or less will be possible.

- A HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches continues and remains likely on Monday. Entering the surf is not advised!

- A strong cold front is forecast to move across the peninsula Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing below normal temperatures areawide into the New Year.

UPDATE

Issued at 755 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Dense sea fog that persisted along the Volusia coast this afternoon overspread coastal Volusia just prior to sunset thanks to a weak sea breeze and reduced solar insolation/lowering mixing heights. This prompted a Dense Fog Adv and Marine Dense Fog Adv for Ormond Beach, Daytona Beach, New Smyrna Beach and the adjacent intracoastal and nearshore Atlc waters through this evening. Once a land breeze gets established later this evening, this sea fog should erode and dissipate. However, conditions are favorable for another round of (more typical) radiation fog to develop later tonight into early Mon over land areas. Models are keying in on Lake, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee over to the coast south of the Cape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Now-Tonight...Morning fog and stratus have largely been replaced with scattered fair-weather cumulus this afternoon as temperatures climb into the mid 70s. Of note is some marine fog that has recently moved ashore along portions of the Volusia coast. This remains localized but worth mentioning, especially for mariners traversing the nearshore Volusia waters this afternoon. Winds remain light otherwise, and the east coast sea breeze will turn wind direction onshore late this afternoon and early in the evening as it moves inland. Temperatures cool off tonight into the mid 50s and low 60s once again, with dew point depressions narrowing after midnight.

Late tonight and into early Monday morning, model guidance points to more fog development. Favored locations include a large portion of the Space and Treasure Coasts, extending inland as far north as Leesburg. Travelers should slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance between vehicles when encountering dense fog.

Monday-Tuesday...Big changes are on the way to our warmer-than- normal weather pattern, beginning early this week. Ridging aloft will break down with H5 height falls starting midday Monday, coincident with a surface cold front making its way south through the Carolinas, Georgia, and north Florida. We will stay in the warm sector long enough for temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday afternoon, but some morning fog/stratus could slow the diurnal temperature climb a bit. West- southwest winds increase to 10-15 mph during the day as the surface pressure gradient tightens.

These winds will remain elevated Monday night as the front passes through the area, gusting at times around 20 mph (25 mph at the coast). Any mentionable rain chances remain offshore over the Atlantic. Temperatures and dew points are forecast to fall rapidly after midnight and on into Tuesday morning, along with an increase in cloud cover. Lows Tuesday morning will range widely, from the low to mid 40s north of I-4 to the 50s from Orlando southward (close to 60 in Stuart). Wind chill values could dip into the mid/upper 30s for a couple of hours across northern Lake and Volusia counties, generally around daybreak, before temperatures begin to climb.

A 1035mb surface high builds over the southern Plains Tuesday, extending east in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Efficient cold air advection will make it difficult for our northern locations to reach the 60-degree mark Tuesday afternoon. The coldest air of the next seven days moves in Tuesday night and early Wednesday, dropping lows into the 30s for much of east central Florida (mid to upper 40s southern Treasure Coast). 12z ensemble probabilities show anywhere from a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below freezing over northern Lake/Volusia early Wednesday morning. Combined with a northwest breeze around 10 mph, wind chill values are forecast to plummet into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

In addition to a significant change in temperatures, hazardous beach conditions look to continue for at least another couple of days, with a high risk of rip currents continuing at area beaches. Entering the water is strongly discouraged!

Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Periodic mid-level troughs embedded in the W/NW flow will keep "lower heights" across the region. At the surface, weak high pressure slowly builds into the region from the NW continuing its influence for much of the week into the weekend. Below normal temperatures are expected areawide through at least Saturday morning. Rain chances remain low but do climb to 15-20 percent Saturday afternoon as another cold front approaches. Skies look to remain MClear to PCloudy for much of the extended.

Highs for Wed nearly mirror those on Tue - perhaps a couple degrees cooler, generally in the 60s Thu/Fri with some 70 degree readings in south Brevard southward, and a return into the 70s as we continue the warming trend next weekend.

Winds still forecast around 5 mph for Wed/Thu/Fri night's so wind chills won't be a greater concern as Tue overnight. However, mins Wed/Thu night's will still find their way down into the M-U30s to around 40F across much of the interior and perhaps coastal Volusia with L-M40s along the immediate coastline southward. Mins Fri night into Sat morning generally in the 40s areawide. A slow warming trend Sat/Sun overnight with generally 50s for lows areawide.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Favorable boating conditions will linger through Monday afternoon with winds generally 10-15 kt or less from the west-southwest. A strong cold front will approach and quickly move across the local waters Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds turn northwesterly and increase to 20-25 kt (gusting up to 30 kt north of Sebastian Inlet) Tuesday morning, falling to 15-20 kt Tuesday afternoon and evening. Seas respond, especially in the Gulf Stream, building up to 5 to 8 feet Tuesday morning through mid afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued, beginning Monday evening and expanding to all of the local waters Tuesday morning. Poor to hazardous conditions are likely to linger through Tuesday evening before returning to a favorable state mid to late week.

Low rain chances will accompany Monday night/Tuesday morning's frontal passage (20-35 percent), mainly over the offshore waters.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

VIS/CIG impacts are ongoing along the coast at DAB/TIX where sea fog rolled onshore earlier this evening. How this evolves the rest of the night is uncertain with the current TAF suggesting a brief break after 08Z before another round of fog builds near DAB later in the morning. Elsewhere, fog across west Florida looks to spread eastward towards the interior terminals this morning with additional fog developing in vicinity of the Treasure Coast terminals over the next several hours. Will continue to monitor trends in the timing of peak impacts, and a few amends may be needed. Fog/ stratus looks to lift by 14Z with gusty west winds increasing into the afternoon as a cold front approaches the region. Winds shift north behind the front tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Areas of locally dense fog are forecast again tonight into Monday morning, particularly over interior portions of the area.

Behind Monday night's cold front, much drier and colder air is forecast to filter across east central Florida. Sensitive fire weather conditions may develop Tuesday through Thursday, due to a combination of lower relative humidity and a light northwest breeze. Humidity values begin to recover late week into next weekend, alongside a gradual warming trend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 78 42 58 34 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 79 46 60 37 / 0 10 0 0 MLB 80 48 62 38 / 0 10 0 0 VRB 81 50 65 38 / 0 10 0 0 LEE 78 40 58 33 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 79 43 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 78 45 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 81 51 65 37 / 0 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ572.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ575.