textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

- Lower rain chances (20-40%) focused inland this evening and on Tuesday afternoon/evening; coastal showers possible Tue/Wed mornings

- The High Risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches. Avoid swimming in the rough surf. A Moderate HeatRisk continues as well, so stay hydrated if are spending time outdoors this week.

- Rain and storm chances increase beginning Wednesday/Thursday, lasting through next weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be beneficial for drought conditions, but repeated rounds of storms may lead to localized flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Now-Tuesday...Gusty winds are affecting much of east central Florida this afternoon, peaking between 20-30 mph (and slightly higher along the Melbourne-to-Stuart portion of the coast). Low-level cumulus is streaming northwestward with short-lived, isolated showers along/west of the east coast sea breeze. The sea breeze has moved west of I-95 and will continue pushing toward the west coast through early evening. As it does, a few more showers and perhaps a storm are possible north and west of Orlando (e.g. Lake County). That being said, a lot of dry air remains above 800mb, so most locations are likely to stay rain-free. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are combining with upper 60s/low 70s dew points to produce heat index values from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Stay cool and hydrated if spending the rest of the afternoon outdoors. Also, a high risk of rip currents continues at area beaches, and entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

Tonight into early Tuesday, isolated coastal showers again become possible, particularly south of Cape Canaveral. Temps will settle into the mid 70s inland and remain close to the 80-degree mark along the coast. A similar story is forecast Tuesday with a significant amount of dry air residing over east-central Florida. Coastal showers in the morning (if any) will slowly translate westward as the east coast breeze moves inland. The forecast maintains a 15-20% chance of rain closer to the coast with 30-40% Orlando westward. By the late evening or early Wednesday morning hours, CAMs redevelop showers along the coast. A 15-25% chance for showers exists at that time, though chances could go up if confidence increases or push back from interior showers/storms occurs.

Wednesday-Sunday...H5 ridging that has been centered to the east of the FL Peninsula will begin to break down later Wed. into Thu. as troughing deepens over the eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure also sinks southeastward late week into next weekend, opening the door for increasingly S/SW surface flow. A wetter pattern sets up from Thursday onward as moisture surges northeast from the Gulf. The east coast breeze may form Thursday/Friday but remain pinned or diffuse along the immediate coast. SW flow with deepening moisture leads to 65-80% rain/storm chances from Thursday into the weekend. The east coast will be increasingly favored as any activity that forms over the interior slides eastward each afternoon and evening. Water- loaded downdrafts could produce strong gusty winds, along with the potential for locally heavy rain and lightning strikes. A shortwave is set to arrive by Saturday, though there are still some slight disagreements in exactly when. This will give another boost to rain chances areawide. Even though we have been in a period of drought, localized flooding issues may develop by the weekend where repeated heavy rains occur. The current QPF highlights 1-2.5" of rain Thursday through Monday morning areawide, with the highest totals of 3"+ focused along the coast (particularly south of Cape Canaveral).

Temperatures through Friday will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s (heat indices upper 90s to low 100s) before dropping back into the 80s this weekend, due to rain and cloud cover. Therefore, a Moderate HeatRisk continues for a sizable portion of the area through at least Thursday/Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Small craft should exercise caution across the local Atlantic from this evening through Tuesday as winds freshen at times, nearing 20 kt across the far southern Treasure Coast waters. Seas remain 3-5 ft through Wed., decreasing to 2-4 ft Thursday onward. However, rain chances go up mid to late week (60%+) as moisture increases and winds turn increasingly offshore. Lightning storms are possible and may lead to locally higher winds/seas at times.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 733 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Afternoon-evening SHRA only INVOF KLEE and will diminish/depart west by 02Z. Marine SHRA have already started to develop, and would reach KTIX-KDAB between 02Z-04Z at their current rate. Chances for SHRA to push onshore the rest of the coast increase after around 05Z. Additional SHRA could develop along the coastal corridor after 14Z as the east coast sea breeze begins to develop, pushing inland of the coastal terminals by around 19Z. Chances for afternoon-evening TSRA INVOF the inland terminals after 18Z increase slightly Tuesday. Currently hedging on TS staying west of KMCO, but may need to introduce VCTS in the next couple packages, and if HRRR guidance continues trends TEMPOs after around 21Z may eventually be needed.

SE winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this evening settle to 5-10 kts inland by around midnight, but will persist along the coast especially KMLB-KSUA much of the night. Wind quickly return to 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts inland and 15-20 kts with gusts approaching 30 kts on the coast Tuesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 90 76 89 / 20 20 20 50 MCO 75 91 75 90 / 10 30 20 60 MLB 79 88 78 88 / 20 20 20 40 VRB 78 89 78 89 / 20 20 20 40 LEE 76 91 75 90 / 30 40 40 60 SFB 76 92 76 91 / 10 20 20 60 ORL 76 91 75 90 / 10 30 20 60 FPR 78 88 77 88 / 20 20 20 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.