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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 918 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

- Strong N/NW wind surge behind the front will produce dangerous boating conditions into tonight and lead to wind gusts up to 35-40 mph along the coast. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the immediate east central FL coast and a Gale Warning is in effect across the entire coastal waters. - Windy tonight as decidedly colder air arrives. A Cold Weather Advisory has been posted for all except the immediate Space and Treasure coasts. In the advisory area, wind chills of 30 degrees or less will make it feel even colder.

- Multiple nights of unusually cold weather yet to come. A Freeze Warning is in effect for areas north of Orlando overnight, and a Freeze Watch has been issued for Greater Orlando, Osceola County, and points northward for Tuesday night. Consider covering tender plants or bringing them inside, if possible.

- Confidence is high that below-normal temperatures will last for the next week to ten days, if not longer. There is a low to moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures late this weekend or early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 918 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Main update for tonight was to issue a Wind Advisory for coastal portions of east central Florida that will remain in effect through 6 AM Tuesday morning. Wind gusts up to 35-45 mph have already been observed from coastal Volusia to the Cape, and can't rule out continuing gusts to 35-40 mph into tonight as surge continues southward and wind speeds remain elevated through much of tonight. Breezy to windy conditions will also exist inland as well, but sustained speeds and gusts should remain below Wind Advisory criteria, with NW winds across the interior between 15-25 mph and gusts between 25-35 mph.

Otherwise, forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. The strong N/NW wind surge will usher in much colder air across the area into tonight, with lows by early Tuesday morning in the upper 20s to low 30s across Lake and inland Volusia counties where a Freeze Warning remains in effect for tonight. Farther south, min temps will be in the mid to upper 30s across the interior and Volusia coast, and in the 40s to low 50s for much of the immediate coast of Brevard County southward. The combination of cold temps and breezy to windy conditions will produce widespread wind chill values as low as the 20s across the interior counties, Volusia County, mainly northern Brevard, and inland portions of southern Brevard and Indian River counties. Across these areas a Cold Weather Advisory is in place from 1-9 AM tonight into early Tuesday morning for these much lower wind chills. Elsewhere along the coast, wind chills as low as the 30s to low 40s are generally forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Current-Tonight...The strong cold front continues to sweep into the southern FL peninsula this afternoon. Strongest convective activity has now pushed south of the Treasure with brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will continue to see breaks in cloud- cover southward through the afternoon (north-south). Cooler, drier air will advect southward behind the front this evening and overnight. Breezy/gusty W/NW winds will follow behind the front with gusts to 25 to 30 mph, perhaps up to around 35 across barrier islands tonight. Much colder air will barrel down the peninsula with a vengeance overnight. A Freeze Warning is currently in place for late tonight into Tue morning for Lake and interior Volusia counties. A Cold Weather Advisory has also been issued for much of the area, keeping out immediate Space/Treasure coasts.

Temps within the Freeze Warning may dip down into the U20s to L30s for a few hours, while M-U30s extend to coastal Volusia and southward to Lake Okee and interior reaches of Brevard and western Indian River counties. Elsewhere, temps range from the L-M40s along the immediate Brevard/Indian River coasts and interior Treasure Coast counties, with U40s to L50s closer towards the St. Lucie/Martin coasts. Lowest wind chill values overnight into early Tue morning will see widespread 20s and L30s across the entirety of the interior, Volusia & Space coasts, and M-U30s for coastal Indian River/coastal St. Lucie counties, save for near 40F to M40s for coastal Martin County.

Tue-Fri...Surface high pressure is forecast to build across the Gulf towards the FL peninsula thru mid-week. This will keep northerly winds through the period, which may be breezy at times, especially along the coast. Mainly dry conditions prevail, as PWATs generally remain 0.6" or less thru the period. The main focus will continue to be the abnormally persistent pattern of well below normal temps. Max temps in the 50s to M60s (few U60s far south) are forecast thru the work-week, ranging from as much as 10-15 degrees below climo each day. Overnight lows in the 30s and L40s will also continue, and will need to monitor the threat for freezing temperatures in the normally colder spots, as well as lowest wind chills/apparent temps below 30 degrees. Expect to see continued cold weather headlines through the week.

Some questions remain regarding RH recovery overnight, but could at least see some patchy frost development beginning Tue/Wed overnights, perhaps some areas of frost, too, esp in rural areas west of I-95. Those with annual and tropical plants will need to take action to protect them for multiple days.

Weekend-Mon...The cold weather pattern is expected to continue into the extended. The primary concern will revolve around the development of a low pressure system off of the southeast U.S. coast & Atlc Seaboard this weekend. This system could act to pull in much colder (Arctic) air funneling it down the peninsula. Confidence may remain low these next couple of days until further model consistency presents itself. There will be ISOLD/SCT precip chances Fri night-Sat evening over land presently. Placement and strength of aforementioned low pressure will also create a tight pressure gradient across ECFL, which would potentially produce breezy/windy/gusty conditions across land - esp near the coast late Sat into Sun.

Previous...Whether temperatures remain manageably cooler than normal or become significantly colder than normal is still in question. While this is more of a reasonable worst-case scenario signal, the overall pattern we are entering has historically supported major freezes and significant cold air outbreaks in Florida. Those making plans outdoors or whom have sensitive agricultural interests should keep a close eye on the forecast as this hopefully becomes clearer by mid-week.

MARINE

Issued at 228 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Boating conditions quickly become very hazardous into this evening and overnight, as strong NW/N winds filter down the coast behind the most recent strong cold front. As such, a Gale Warning goes into effect areawide early this evening lasting until 12Z/7AM Tue morning. Expect wind speeds 25-30+ kts with frequent gusts to Gale Force during this time. Very rough seas are expected with wave heights building to 7-10 ft near shore and up to 13 ft offshore/Gulf Stream. Small Craft Advisories will continue after this time as winds gradually diminish with seas much slower to subside, esp Gulf Stream, into mid-week. Another (lesser) surge in winds/seas occurs on Thu with a reinforcing cold front. Then, this weekend (while confidence still low) we could see another strong weather system bring, again, very hazardous boating conditions (winds/seas) to the local waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 647 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions forecast tonight into Tuesday, as a colder/drier airmass builds in behind the cold front keeping skies clear to mostly clear. A surge in NW winds will occur this evening behind the front, with wind speeds increasing to around 15-20 knots and gusts up to 22-25 knots forecast. These winds will slowly decrease toward daybreak Tuesday, becoming N/NW 10-14 knots with some gusts up to 20-22 knots still possible along the Treasure Coast through much of the day Tuesday. Elsewhere, winds will continue to decrease into the afternoon to around 7-10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Behind a recent strong cold front, much drier/colder air settles over central FL Peninsula beginning overnight and continuing thru next weekend. Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Tue, with fire-sensitive weather persisting through at least mid-week. Brisk northwest winds from 8-15 MPH are expected as RH values drop to 25-35% over the interior. RH values drop to 20-30% across all but the immediate coast once again on Wed and Thu, but northwest winds decrease slightly to around 5-10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 33 52 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 36 56 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 40 58 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 44 61 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 31 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 34 55 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 36 55 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 44 62 39 64 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347-547.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044-144.

Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-144.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347- 447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572- 575.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550- 552.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555- 570-572-575.