textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through early-mid week. The main storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise, frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph will also be possible. - Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s (few mid 90s today) will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches again today. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Today-tonight... Upper level high pressure will remain in place as an upper level trough across the eastern US pushes offshore. At the surface, high pressure axis will continue to slowly shift south and eastward, away from ECFL, as a surface boundary moves into the Deep South. Locally, light southwest to west winds will shift onshore in the afternoon along the coast this afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and slowly push inland, although a quicker progression inland is forecast across the Treasure Coast. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur along the I-95 corridor late this afternoon/early evening. Storm motion will be light and northwesterly, which will bring activity back towards the coast and out into the Atlantic.

Scattered showers and storms are forecast to form this afternoon (PoP 30-60%). Highest coverage will be across the north Brevard to Orange County northward. Isolated to scattered showers are currently pushing across northern Osceola northward this afternoon from the west as well as some showers forming along the sea breeze across the Treasure Coast. Forecast soundings show a moist profile, although not as moist as it has been the past couple of days, with PW values of 1.8- 2.0". The environment supports convection, with plenty of instability (MUCAPE of 1900-2300 J/kg), sufficient buoyancy (lifted index of -5 to -7), slightly cooler temperatures aloft (-7C at 500 mb), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 800-1000 J/kg) with some drier air in the mid levels. Because of this, main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds up to 50 mph, small hail, and torrential downpours capable of 2-4" in a relatively short period of time, promoting minor/nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maintains a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for portions of east central Florida today, mainly from Vero Beach northward and as far inland as the Orlando Metro.

Humid once again today with slightly above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices of 100-107F. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Saturday... Upper level high pressure across the Great Plains will shift eastward through mid week as the trough over the eastern US shifts eastward and offshore through early next week. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will drop into the Deep south and northern Florida by early week. This frontal boundary will continue to shift southward to near north/central to central Florida into mid week before washing out, but there remains some uncertainty with exactly how far the boundary will get before it washes out. The NBM continues to key in on deep moisture surging in proximity of the boundary, thus favoring higher than normal PoPs Monday and Tuesday (70-80%), Wednesday-Thursday (60-70%), with only a slight dip Friday- Saturday (50-60%). Storm motion will be fairly weak and erratic, however some activity will periodically push back towards the coast, especially with stronger boundary collisions. Storm impacts will be similar to today, with locally heavy rainfall continuing to be a concern. WPC has outlooked portions of east central Florida in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Monday, and all of east central Florida on Tuesday. Seasonable temperatures and humid conditions are forecast each day, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Today-Thursday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the period. High pressure axis will drop to the south ahead of an approaching weak front. This weakening front is forecast to reach north-central Florida by early week, and potentially push towards the local Atlantic waters. Southwest to westerly flow will become S/SE at 10-12 KT each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. Diurnal offshore-moving showers/storms through mid next week. Storm motion will remain mostly light westerly (offshore moving), which will affect the intracoastal and nearshore waters. A few strong storms possible with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds in excessive of 34 KT or greater, and heavy downpours. Coverage of storms will be fairly high early to mid week. Seas locally higher in the vicinity of storms. Seas 1-2 ft thru Monday night, building to 2-4 ft again by late Tuesday and perhaps 5 ft well offshore (Volusia & Brevard coasts) Tuesday night/Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Ongoing isolated to scattered convection currently north and west of the local terminals will move east-southeast through the afternoon. The east coast sea breeze is beginning to develop, and prevailing westerly flow (6-10 kts) should keep the boundary close to the coast through the afternoon and evening. This will favor the greatest coverage of showers and storms at coastal terminals with TSRA TEMPOs at DAB/TIX/MLB and PROB30s at VRB/FPR/SUA. Otherwise, VCTS is mentioned at all east central Florida terminals. Some convection may linger along the coast through around 02Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 89 75 87 / 30 80 60 60 MCO 76 92 75 91 / 30 80 50 80 MLB 76 91 75 90 / 30 70 60 70 VRB 74 90 74 89 / 20 70 60 70 LEE 75 90 75 89 / 40 80 40 80 SFB 76 91 75 90 / 40 80 50 80 ORL 77 91 76 90 / 30 80 50 80 FPR 74 90 74 89 / 20 70 50 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.