textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

- A Dense Fog ADVISORY is in effect for most of east central Florida until 9 am. Motorists should watch for sudden changes in visibility. Fog will continue to be a risk each morning through at least midweek.

- Turning warmer than normal, with many spots reaching the lower 80s late this week. Mainly dry conditions prevail.

- Confidence in the timing of the next cold front remains low for next weekend. Cooler weather may begin as early as Sunday, but rain chances are still limited.

UPDATE

Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

FDOT traffic cameras and airport observations indicate that fog has developed over much of east central Florida, with some spots reporting visibilities to 1/4 mile. With that said, we have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for most of the district through 9 am ET.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

On the heels of a disturbance that has now exited east of the Bahamas, mid-level height rises are underway across Florida this morning. A ridge axis, currently from the Bay of Campeche to Minnesota, is slowly progressing eastward. A low-amplitude shortwave is rippling through the quasi-zonal flow over the Deep South this morning, expected to reach the Western Atlantic by tonight. Total moisture (PW) values have already dropped below one inch, but may briefly surge slightly above normal along the coast later today.

The 04/12Z grand ensemble was in excellent agreement with the large-scale pattern evolution through the work week. For the Sunshine State, height rises will continue through Friday as the H5 ridge slowly works across the Gulf. At the surface, an axis of high pressure settles overhead through the work week, with a rather loose pressure gradient through at least Thursday. The combination of ridging and broad adiabatic, downsloping effects from the zonal flow across the continental U.S. support a broad area of positive PBL temperature anomalies east of the Rockies, extending over the state from Tuesday through at least Saturday. H85 (5kft) temperatures level off between +12 and +13 deg C during this period.

By this weekend, a longwave trough pushes into the Central and Eastern United States. Cluster analysis reveals a slight trend toward a faster solution, with 2/3 of members supporting a cold frontal passage in Florida by early Sunday. The key to the timing here appears to be how the members handle the phasing of the polar and subtropical jets, and whether some energy gets left behind over the Southwest. A more consolidated trough, led by GEFS and AI-GEFS members, would force an earlier (and stronger) frontal passage. On the flip side, if some subtropical energy gets left behind over the Chihuahuan and Sonoran Deserts, the front should be a little weaker and slower.

Negative temperature anomalies are likely early next week, but there is disagreement on the timing and strength of the associated cold advection. IQRs via statistical guidance readily illustrate these discrepancies, with 25th-75th percentile spread for high temperatures jumping from 2-3 deg F on Saturday to 12-17 deg F on Sunday! In either case, moisture advection looks limited.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today & Tonight...

Lingering from yesterday, very low stratus covers areas from Greater Orlando northward this morning. To the south, skies are mostly clear, but some patchy fog and low stratus is forming. Light drainage winds are contributing to a sharp near-surface inversion, saturating in the lowest 1000 ft or so. This will continue to promote fog and/or stratus development through mid-morning. There remains a low-medium chance for locally dense fog with visibilities approaching 1/4 mile, especially over the interior. Trends will be monitored, and a Dense Fog Advisory would be required if it becomes more widespread.

Cloud cover should scour out over the northern half of the district, allowing more sunshine than Sunday. The weak disturbance over N Florida may trigger scattered showers over the Atlantic, with a few possibly reaching the coast as winds turn onshore (<20% chance). Temperatures look to reach a few degrees above normal, generally in the mid to upper 70s.

Another round of patchy fog is forecast late tonight as skies become mostly clear area-wide.

Tuesday - Friday...

If you enjoy warm winter days, you will enjoy the balance of the work week. After patchy morning fog burns off, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies continue with daytime highs rising above normal for early January. Widespread upper 70s to low 80s are forecast, warmest over the interior. By Friday, places from Lake County to the Kissimmee Basin have a 20-40% chance of reaching 85 degrees. The latest statistical guidance indicates a 20-30% chance that Orlando and Leesburg will at least tie their daily record highs on Friday.

Next Weekend & Beyond...

Statistical guidance shows excellent agreement in sensible weather through Saturday, with Central Florida still bumping into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overall confidence then takes a tumble going into Sunday. The timing of the front will dictate temperature trends and whether any rain falls over the district. Forecast adjustments are likely, but for now the bias-corrected consensus calls for a distinct cooling trend by Sunday and Monday. Blended rain chances are still < 20% with this front, partly due to temporal averaging effects but also because the overall setup for wetting rain still looks quite poor.

Confidence in significant cold early next week is low, with a 20-40% chance of lows reaching the 30s north of Greater Orlando.

MARINE

Issued at 109 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

High pressure drifting off the Eastern Seaboard will drape a trailing axis over Florida for the work week. Any significant fronts are forecast to remain well north of the local Atlantic. However, a weak disturbance is forecast to spark a few showers over the waters through Tuesday. At most, gentle to moderate breezes are forecast, allowing seas to subside and become favorable for much of the work week.

Today, winds will be quite variable over the waters, turning onshore near the coast this afternoon. Breezes turn offshore from Tuesday into Wednesday, except at the immediate coast where a weak sea breeze should form late in the afternoon on Tuesday. Winds turn back toward the southeast from Thursday into Friday. Speeds remain below 13 KT through the period. Seas diminish from 3-5 FT today to 2-3 FT from Tuesday through Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 109 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

LIFR conds in stratus with patchy fog will continue to spread south and encompass most east central FL terminals thru daybreak with the possible exception of SUA. Expect this stratus to lower and produce dense fog esp across interior terminals including MCO into early Mon. Interior terminals (MCO/SFB/LEE) will take longest to return to VFR...by 16Z Mon. This stratus layer is pretty shallow so do not expect a repeat of lingering stratus late into the aftn as occurred Sunday.

Isold SHRA are forecast just offshore VRB-SUA late tonight and Mon am but will hold off on VCSH there. Light north winds overnight becoming variable over the interior during Mon while turning onshore (ENE-E) around 7-8 knots in the afternoon along the coast behind a weak sea breeze circulation.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 55 77 56 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 77 58 80 58 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 76 57 78 56 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 76 56 79 56 / 20 0 10 0 LEE 75 54 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 77 56 80 57 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 76 58 80 58 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 77 56 79 55 / 20 0 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

AM...None.