textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Cooler but pleasant this afternoon with lower rain chances mainly focused along the Treasure Coast. Breezy onshore winds will cause poor to hazardous boating conditions and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at our beaches.

- Deeper moisture returns this weekend through at least Monday, leading to scattered to numerous showers and storms. There is a low chance for a few strong, gusty storms with locally heavy rain and coin-sized hail.

- A strong cold front is slated to push across the state late Monday, leading to much cooler weather for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Current-Tonight...Clouds and light precip (south) across the area, have kept afternoon temperatures down a bit, but we may still realize U70s (coast) to L80s inland. The former cold frontal boundary lies across the southern FL peninsula early this afternoon where it continues to diminish in identity. Zonal flow aloft will continue across the region thru this period with 500 mb temps near -11C. Deepest moisture remains over south FL, with highest PWATs near 1.50 inches across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Generally dry conditions across the I-4 corridor, with highest PoP chances toward Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast (20-50%) this afternoon and early evening. Isolated lightning storm chances will also be possible southward. Will continue to monitor for any locally heavy bands of precip (low risk), should they develop across the far south. Otherwise expect northeast winds 10-15 mph, occasionally breezy 15 mph with higher gusts along the Space/Treasure coasts.

Will need to watch later tonight, esp across the Treasure Coast, as models suggest northward-moving convection extending inland toward the Kissimmee Basin as some locally heavy downpours will be possible. Some of this (low-topped) activity along the coast may esp be efficient at producing precip. Onshore flow becomes light this evening with mins forecast in the 60s areawide.

Weekend...An unsettled weather pattern emerges as moisture surges back northward across the area. The flow aloft "backs" SWRLY with occasional embedded shortwave impulses (esp Sun) traversing the area. 500 mb temps fall slightly to between -12C and -13C. A diffuse sea breeze will develop on Sat within the ERLY flow and perhaps a more defined sea breeze on Sun along the Space/Treasure coasts with a stronger late day collision across the eastern FL peninsula. SCT- NMRS shower and lightning storm potential for Sat with highest PoPs (40-70%) across the southern two-thirds, and again may have to watch for nocturnal convection along the Space/Treasure coasts Sat overnight. On Sun, deepest moisture late in the day (PWATs 1.80") just inland from the Space/Treasure coasts, with areawide PoPs set at 65-80%. While showers will be possible each morning, highest coverage is expected in the afternoon/early evening each day.

Previous...Some of our early-arriving hi-res guidance for this weekend supports a max rainfall potential of 2-4" in isolated spots, with areal averages in the 0.5-1.25" range. While chances appear low and isolated, the environment may support a few strong storms with coin-sized hail and wind gusts of 40-50 mph this weekend, particularly on Sun.

Temperatures continue above normal in the U70s to L80s areawide on Sat, then L-M80s for Sun. Min temps still well into the 60s at night.

Previous extended forecast discussion slightly modified...

Mon-Tue...A strong cold front remains poised to approach the state during the early portion of the work-week, leading to another round of showers and lightning storms (75-90%) on Mon. If the timing of the front coincides with peak heating and instability, a few strong and gusty storms may become a threat. Expect breezy and unusually warm conditions ahead of the front.

The front is most likely to pass through ECFL late Mon into very early Tue, with colder air quickly filtering in behind it. Statistical guidance suggests that highs in the L-M80s on Mon will give way to highs in the U50s to U60s on Tue (north to south), as guidance has come in even cooler with the 12Z model guidance. Breezy northerly winds on Tue will make it feel even cooler. Lows are forecast to dip as cold as the L-M40s northwest of Orlando, with the chilliest conditions Tue night. Lowest wind chills each night (Tue/Wed mornings) could approach U30s in rural parts of north Lake/north Volusia.

Wed-Fri...The big question mark remains if rain chances will linger through mid-week. Around 30-40% of members retain additional energy at the base of a slow-moving trough over the Eastern U.S., which would support lingering shower chances. A small majority of the members suggest a cleaner frontal passage with drier conditions from late Tue onward.

Many ensemble members, but not all, are dry by Thu and especially next Fri. Slow temperature moderation is forecast. Below-normal highs in the M-U60s to L70s (south) on Wed should rise closer to normal (M-U70s) by next Fri. There is downside potential for temperatures mid-week if clouds and showers are more prevalent. Still expect some fine-tuning to this part of the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue into this evening, as winds/seas (slower) gradually diminish. High pressure builds across the southeast U.S. and into the western Atlc the next day or so. This will keep winds NERLY thru Sat. Onshore veering flow continues into Sat night-Sun, southerly into Sun night-Mon, with the next (strong) cold front arriving Mon night into early Tue. Seas 4-6 ft near shore subsiding to 4-5 ft thru the afternoon. Gulf stream 5-8 ft continuing to diminish to 5-6 ft late overnight. Wind speeds AOB 15 kts into early Sun, but then build later on Sun thru early next week as the pgrad strengthens with the approach of the next low pressure system. This will signal a likely return to poor to hazardous boating conditions late Sun into mid next week.

Scattered-numerous rain and isolated lightning storm chances developing thru Sat night, then increasing further into Sun-Mon night. Storm threats include lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 34 kts, heavy downpours, and small to coin-size hail potential.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 743 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Isolated showers continue this evening, but the main SHRA/TSRA are west and south of the local area. There are some lingering MVFR CIGs this evening, with most terminals remaining VFR. There is some guidance indicating that MVFR CIGs could continue into tonight, with a (20% or less) chances for IFR impacts. However, confidence is not high. Have included MVFR CIGs through 05Z for SUA which had the highest potential for occurring. Otherwise, VFR conditions through TAF period outside of convection. Onshore moving SHRA returns around 01Z along the coast, and could reach the inland terminals around 08Z. SHRA chances further increase after 12Z. Have included VCTS along the coastal terminals at 18Z. While VFR conditions are forecast, CIGs will be near MVFR once again tomorrow. Easterly winds around 10 KT or less tonight will become breezy and occasionally gusty once again with speeds 10-13 KT and gusts up to 20 KT at times. Winds then become light overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 63 78 65 83 / 20 40 50 70 MCO 66 80 67 85 / 20 60 40 80 MLB 66 79 67 83 / 30 60 50 80 VRB 66 80 66 83 / 40 70 60 70 LEE 64 81 65 85 / 10 50 30 80 SFB 64 80 65 86 / 20 50 40 80 ORL 66 81 66 85 / 20 50 40 80 FPR 65 81 65 83 / 40 70 60 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.