textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 749 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- The potential exists for a few strong storms over the next several days, as well as isolated severe storms Thursday and Friday

- Coverage of showers and storms increases Thursday and into the weekend; A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists Thursday through Saturday with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall forecast

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Currently-Thursday... KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast which have produce some gusty winds to around 30-40mph. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Analysis charts show a mid/upper low over the northeastern US with a shortwave trough over northern Florida. Meanwhile, the Atlantic ridge axis is well to the east- Southeast of east central Florida. There's a wide range of current temperatures currently across east central due to rain cooled air over much of the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee county; temperatures are in the low 80s to mid 90s. Dew points are in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with heat index values generally between 100F-108F degrees (hottest across the north). Winds are breezy from the west- southwest at 10-20mph with gusts to 20-25mph.

Isolated to scattered slow generally east moving showers (30-50% chance) and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening with the greatest chances to the south of the Orlando Metro. The main hazards with this afternoon and evening lightning storms are occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts to 40-60mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"+ in 30-60 mins). A line of scattered to numerous showers (30-70% chance) and storms are forecast to move south-southeast across east central Florida mainly after 4AM across areas north of I-4 before tracking southwards and reaching the Treasure Coast by the afternoon hours. Guidance is not in good agreement on the timing, as well as the coverage of showers, especially the CAMs. However, they have come into better agreement than yesterday with the FV3 and NAMNest showing a solution closer to the HRRR.

A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms has been outlooked over far northern Lake county, as well as Volusia counties through 8AM Thursday. The potential exists for isolated strong to severe storms capable of wind gusts up to 60mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (up to 2-4" with a 1 in 10 chance in excess of 4" up to 4-6") which has the potential to result in flooding. For this reason, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (5-14% chance) exists on Thursday. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s are forecast.

Friday-Saturday... A similar forecast is expected on Friday with a stationary boundary over the Deep South and weak low pressure over Georgia. However confidence in the timing of east- southeast moving scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms is rather low. The greatest chance (50-70%) for scattered to numerous showers and storms is Friday morning into Friday afternoon. However, global models and CAMs disagree again on the timing with the CAMs mostly not showing much overnight into Friday morning and the global models showing a scenario similar to tonight's. Guidance indicates MLCAPE up to 3,000 J/kg on Friday, 0-6km shear up to 20-40kts, areas of PVA traversing ECFL, and a LLJ up to 25kts. The potential exists for strong to severe storms on Friday (greatest potential across northern ECFL). Scattered to numerous showers (60-70% chance) and lightning storms are forecast on Saturday. Winds will remain gusts from the west- southwest generally at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Additionally, the potential exists for strong storms on Saturday. Near normal highs and above normal lows are expected.

Sunday-Wednesday... The active weather pattern is expected to continue on Sunday with a mid/upper level trough over the southern US. WSW flow weakens into next week which will allow the east coast sea breeze to develop on Monday before flow becomes easterly Tuesday and Wednesday. The NBM probability of precipitation (PoPs) remains high through Sunday with near to below normal rain chances Monday through Wednesday as drier air filters in over east central Florida. Scattered to numerous showers (60%-70% chance) and lightning storms are forecast on Sunday with rain chances gradually diminishing into next week. Near to slightly below normal high temperatures are forecast with near to above normal low temperatures through Monday with slightly warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Currently-Tonight... Choppy to hazardous boating conditions are expected with WSW winds at 10-15kts nearshore and 15-20kts offshore (20-60nm) Seas to 2-3ft nearshore and to 3-4ft up to 5 ft far offshore are the Volusia to Brevard county waters are forecast. Strong offshore moving storms capable of wind gusts to 34kts or greater are forecast this afternoon and tonight, especially north of Cape Canaveral tonight. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution offshore.

Thursday-Monday (modified previous discussion)... High coverage of showers and storms persists through the weekend with activity moving eastward and offshore, especially Thursday morning and into the afternoon. Despite this, boating conditions improve as SW flow slackens to 15 kts or less through Saturday. The ridge axis moves northward into early next week, which will back winds S. Wind speeds are forecast to reach 15-20 kts at times, mainly offshore. Shower and storm coverage returns to near normal by Monday. Seas 1-3 ft.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 749 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A stray shower or two still possible into this evening, but otherwise it will be mostly dry. Band of showers/storms across north FL will continue to progress S/SE, but should weaken through late evening. Will have to monitor to see if any TSRA activity can linger as it draws closer to KLEE/KDAB toward 06Z. For now, have just include VCSH for these sites. Hi-res guidance has been quite unreliable for convective trends into tonight/Thursday, so forecast remains uncertain.

Current forecast indicates scattered showers and potentially isolated storms developing late tonight through early morning, mainly near to north of KMCO. Then, coverage of showers and storms increases, becoming scattered to numerous through the late morning and afternoon. Have VCTS starting around 14-16Z, and added TEMPO groups for MVFR TSRA impacts for most sites starting as early as 15Z at KLEE and 16-17Z elsewhere. Southwest winds 7-10 knots tonight, increasing to 10-15 knots into Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 91 75 91 / 50 70 50 70 MCO 78 91 77 92 / 40 70 50 70 MLB 77 91 76 90 / 20 70 30 70 VRB 75 92 74 91 / 10 60 30 70 LEE 78 90 77 91 / 70 70 60 70 SFB 78 91 77 91 / 50 70 50 70 ORL 78 91 77 91 / 50 70 50 70 FPR 75 91 74 90 / 10 60 30 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141- 144-247-347-447.

AM...None.