textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions today will persist into at least Sunday with elevated wave heights, a high risk of rip currents, and rough, pounding surf continuing. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- A taste of fall is in store for the rest of the week and into early next week, as drier and somewhat cooler conditions gradually filter down the peninsula.

- Rain and storm chances return to the forecast from Tuesday onward as moisture begins to increase once again across the area, with a slight trend upward in temperatures towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level cutoff low paired with a nor'easter off the North Carolina coast will slowly move northward through the day. At the surface, broad high pressure will build over the Florida peninsula. Locally, breezy northerly winds will persist today, with speeds around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast with gusts to around 20 mph possible at times. Drier air will filter down across the local area today, with forecast PW values dropping to 0.8-1.3" this afternoon. This will result in little to no rain and lightning storm chances today, with the greatest potential for rain (PoP 20 percent) occurring across the southern Treasure Coast. Seasonable temperatures are forecast today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with heat indices in the 80s to potentially up to 90s degrees in the Treasure Coast. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

Despite the pleasant weather, beach conditions are forecast to remain poor to hazardous today. Seas will be slow to subside through the day. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect today, with breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet, resulting in rough hazardous surf persisting. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Sunday-Monday... The upper level cut-off low and associated nor'easter off the eastern seaboard Sunday will lift northward, eventually pushing onshore across the New England coast by Monday. At the surface, broad high pressure will continue to build over the Florida peninsula as high pressure across the western Atlantic slowly builds westward towards the Caribbean. Locally, drier air will filter across the area, with forecast PW values falling to 1.0- 1.2" areawide. This will result in little to no rain and storm chances into early next week. The highest rain chances (PoP 20 percent) will be across the southern Treasure Coast on Monday. The pressure gradient slackens over the local area, with winds becoming light and variable through the period. Seasonable temperatures are forecast into early next week. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Sunday, and mid to upper 80s on Monday. Peak heat indices will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, possibly reaching 70 degrees along the coast by Monday.

Poor to hazardous conditions are forecast to continue at the beaches through at least Sunday as seas are slow to subside through early next week. A high risk of rip currents is forecast through at least Sunday, though it will may continue into Monday as well. Breaking waves of 3 to 6 feet will also persist, so rough, hazardous surf will also be present. Overall, entering the ocean is strongly discouraged through at least Sunday.

Tuesday-Friday... Upper level trough over the eastern seaboard early next week will push off shore by midweek. A surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly shift northward through the period. Model solutions begin to diverge later into the period. The global models vary slightly in timing and location of a mid-upper level trough and associated surface low swinging across the CONUS, bringing the attendant surface front towards Florida mid to late next week. Locally, onshore winds will remain in place, although there is some uncertainty if the winds will be more easterly or southeasterly. Moisture looks to recover slightly, however exactly how much remains in questions as forecast PW values range from near to below normal to above normal depending on the model. This has resulted in decreasing confidence in forecast rain chances and heat impacts. For now, have rain chances broadly increasing from near/below normal Tuesday, becoming near/above normal Wednesday through Friday (with rain chances increasing each day). Lightning storm chances also return on Wednesday onward. Temperatures will be seasonably warm once again, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Due to the increase in moisture, peak heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s.

MARINE

Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Today-Wednesday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue today with breezy north to northeast winds at 10-15 KT with gusts 20- 25 KT today. Winds will continue to subside, with speeds 5-10 KT Sunday. Winds then shift offshore by Monday and Tuesday, remaining light before backing onshore each afternoon with the east coast sea breeze and increasing to around 10 KT. Seas 4-8ft in the nearshore and 6-9 ft in the offshore waters today will subside to 3-7ft by Sunday. Seas will continue to subside to 3-5ft on Monday, and 2-3ft on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters through this afternoon, before tapering off to just the Gulf Stream waters this afternoon through tonight. Poor boating conditions will remain through at least the weekend.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible across the Treasure Coast waters today, with no mentionable rain chances on Sunday. Rain chances return on Monday as moisture increases once again, with isolated to scattered showers and storms focused across the Treasure Coast waters, and scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast across all the waters on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR continue. NNW winds 5-10 kt gradually shift more NNE after 18z, with gusts 15+ kt as a diffuse east coast breeze moves inland (esp. at coastal sites). Mainly SKC with FEW/SCT025-040 nearer to coastal sites.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is forecast to continue to rise, cresting on Sunday due to an ongoing period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels are forecast to then subside slightly before remaining steady through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 82 63 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 85 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 83 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 84 67 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 84 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 62 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 84 63 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 84 66 84 67 / 10 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.