textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Dry conditions persist across east central Florida through Sunday, with increasing rain and storm chances forecast from Monday onward.

- A High Risk of rip currents is forecast at all east central Florida beaches today; entering the ocean is not advised!

- A gradual warming trend will lead to some spots across the interior reaching the mid 90s late this weekend into early next week with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Currently-Saturday... KMLB radar imagery shows mostly dry conditions over east central Florida except for a few light sprinkles over the nearshore Brevard and Indian River counties moving onshore. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cumulus clouds moving west over east central Florida. Analysis charts show high pressure (~1022mb) over the southeastern US and southwestern Atlantic. Current temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Mostly dry weather is forecast through tonight and on Saturday; however isolated onshore moving showers (20%) cannot be ruled out (mainly south of Cape Canaveral) with onshore flow in place and PWATs in the 0.9-1.2" range. Low temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s are forecast with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

Sunday-Monday... Rain chances increase Sunday (20-30%) and to start off the workweek (20-40%) as high pressure over the southeastern US weakens and moves east over the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a major shortwave trough over the eastern US is expected to deepen into a low over the western Atlantic Sunday into Monday. Guidance continues to fluctuate in the probability of precipitation to begin the week due to the placement of the low over the western Atlantic. However, onshore flow in place and a weak west coast sea breeze favors the highest rain chances over the western interior of east central Florida on Monday. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast into each afternoon. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast each afternoon with partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Heat index values in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees are forecast on Monday. There is a Major HeatRisk for portions of the Orlando Metro, Lake, and northern Brevard counties on Monday with a widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the remainder of east central Florida. A Major HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. A Moderate HeatRisk affects those who are sensitive to heat without adequate cooling and hydration. Remember to drink plenty of water, wear light clothing, take frequent breaks, and shift outdoor activities away from 10am to 4pm.

Tuesday-Thursday... Guidance continues to indicate that rain and lightning storm chances increase Tuesday and into midweek with PWATs up to 1.2-2.0" on Tuesday (mainly south of Cape Canaveral. High pressure is expected to build over the southwestern Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. There are differences in the amount of moisture available on Wednesday and Thursday. The deterministic GFS, deterministic ECMWF, GFS ensembles, ECMWF ensembles, and Google Deepmind all indicate that there is the potential for a tropical system to develop in the Gulf of America Thursday and thereafter which will have a large influence on how high the rain shower and lightning storm coverage will be over east central Florida ahead of the system on Wednesday and Thursday. A more westerly track would result in drier conditions for east central Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast with lows in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Currently-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue with high pressure (~1016-1020mb) over the southeastern US. Mostly dry weather is forecast, however isolated onshore moving showers (20%) cannot be ruled out, mainly south of Cape Canaveral. East winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are expected. Seas of 3-5ft are expected to reduce to 2-4ft into Saturday afternoon.

Sunday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue as high pressure over the southeastern US weakens and moves east over the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a major shortwave trough is forecast to deepen into a low over the western Atlantic Sunday into Monday. Isolated generally onshore moving showers (20%) and lightning storms are forecast on Sunday and Monday before rain chances (20-50%) increase over all of the waters on Tuesday. East winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are forecast each day. Seas to 2-4ft on Sunday are forecast to reduce to 1-3ft on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions are generally forecast to prevail through tonight into tomorrow. High pressure ridge axis north of the region and overall dry airmass will keep easterly winds in place and lead to a mostly dry forecast. However, increasing low level moisture may lead to brief MVFR cigs and isolated light showers pushing onshore, mainly along the coast. Probability for MVFR cigs remain low though currently, less than 10 percent.

Easterly winds 10-12 knots diminish to 5-8 knots into tonight and then increase once again into late Saturday morning/afternoon, with speeds 10-13 knots and gusts up to 18-20 knots possible along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 66 86 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 67 89 68 92 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 75 86 76 88 / 20 10 10 20 VRB 73 86 75 88 / 20 20 10 20 LEE 69 90 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 67 89 68 92 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 69 90 69 93 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 72 85 74 87 / 20 20 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.