textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Breezy to gusty southeast winds and dry conditions prevail through late week and continue this weekend.

- Very warm conditions this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide.

- Rain and lightning storms return to the forecast late Monday into Tuesday as a cold front approaches the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

It feels like we jumped ahead a couple months out there this evening with temps still in the 80s in many spots along with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Other than a rogue shower (chances less than 20%), a dry forecast continues.

East Central Florida is situated beneath a strong mid-level ridge (H5 heights near to above 588 dam) centered over the W Atlantic. ACARS soundings from MCO reveal a hostile dry layer extending from 10 KFT to the tropopause and a subsidence inversion around 15 KFT, inhibiting deep convection. A deep trough rests over the Rockies, placing the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys squarely in the baroclinic zone where widespread severe weather is ongoing tonight. The ridge will essentially protect Florida from those significant impacts over the coming days. Locally, unseasonably warm to hot daytime temperatures will be commonplace. Stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and seek the shade from time to time.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Now-Tonight...Fair weather cumulus are streaming from southeast to northwest this afternoon. With a stout dry layer above 850mb and lingering moisture nearer to the surface, these clouds are only reaching 4-5 kft before being cut off by the drier air aloft. Plenty of sunshine is filtering through, pushing temperatures into the mid and upper 80s. We have several more hours of peak heating left, so the high temperature forecast remains in good shape (mid 80s coast, low 90s inland). While a shower cannot be ruled out around Lake Okeechobee, the chance is generally 10 percent or less. Breezy conditions are also present, with southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting as high as 25-30 mph. The highest winds are occurring along the Treasure Coast, where the sea breeze is attempting to develop. A diffuse breeze is anticipated to migrate inland through mid evening, bringing the potential for gusty winds 20-30 mph farther inland around sunset. Winds relax after midnight in most locations, staying breezy at the coast, as temperatures settle into the upper 60s and low 70s.

Thursday-Friday...Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will work to keep conditions dry through late week. Lower PW values rotate northward from the Caribbean, limiting moisture return. Onshore flow from the southeast will remain persistent, increasing each day from late morning into the afternoon. Thus, wind gusts could approach 20- 30 mph both days, especially along the coast/barrier islands. Similar to today, afternoon highs will reach for the mid 80s to low 90s, ending up warmest across the interior and cooler (relatively speaking) at the coast. Overnight lows are forecast to remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Saturday-Tuesday...Competing synoptic features are highlighted in the medium range guidance as we head into the weekend and early next week. First, mid level ridging will remain entrenched over the southeast U.S., especially Florida. Farther north and west, a deep 500mb trough, associated with a strong cold front and surface low, is forecast to gradually move in our direction by early next week. This will chip away at high pressure over the area and eventually bring increasing rain chances to the area Monday into Tuesday. Before then, temperatures are expected to warm even further over the weekend, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s everywhere on Saturday and Sunday. Breezy onshore flow will remain, providing only slight relief from the heat. Though humidity is forecast to be lower, those most sensitive to warmer temperatures should be sure to take extra breaks in the shade or air-conditioning and remain well-hydrated. Continued overnight lows in the upper 60s are forecast.

By early next week, surface winds begin to veer SSW ahead of the approaching cold front. There are notable timing differences between global models regarding the timing of increased rain chances and the eventual frontal passage. Most guidance is in agreement on a Tuesday (daytime) FROPA, while the GFS suggests a slightly less organized, faster and drier FROPA late Monday into early Tuesday. Leaning on consensus, it appears our best chance for rain and storms arrives after sunrise Tuesday and continuing through the afternoon hours. Since this is still 6+ days away, we will know more about the potential for strong storms as we get closer in time. For now, convective parameters are modest at best, so the forecast reflects a chance of showers with isolated lightning storms. Temperatures remain warm Monday with highs in the 90s, dropping back into the 70s and low 80s on Tuesday in association with rain and cloud cover. QPF over the next seven days ranges from 0.2" south to around 1" across northern areas. More unknowns about the overall pattern will need to be ironed out before more specifics are provided, but any rain will be a welcome sight following a very dry start to the month.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Fresh southeast winds will continue to produce poor boating conditions tonight through at least Thursday night, mainly in the Gulf Stream. 15-20 kt winds with gusts 20-25 kt can be expected, along with seas building up to 5 ft. Small craft should exercise caution across the Gulf Stream.

South-southeast winds relax for a brief time on Friday before freshening again over the weekend. Periods of poor boating conditions can be expected, especially each afternoon and evening over the Gulf Stream. More favorable conditions are forecast during the morning hours. Seas generally 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft offshore. Mostly dry weather is forecast until rain chances increase early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR in the 00Z TAFs as SE winds prevail throughout. Gusts subside tonight, but increase to around 25 KT on Thursday afternoon. There is a low (20-30%) chance for some BKN MVFR to brief IFR stratus late tonight. Will AMD as necessary, but for now included a period of SCT010 to account for the potential.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Saturday-Monday...Lower relative humidity each afternoon, particularly on Saturday and Sunday, will present sensitive fire weather conditions. Combined with breezy southeast winds, especially along the immediate coast, fire danger will be elevated this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm, approaching records in a couple of spots, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 70 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 72 84 71 84 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 72 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 70 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 70 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 70 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 71 84 69 84 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.