textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for northern east central Florida today, with heat indices up to 110 degrees. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke!

- A few strong storms will be possible over the next several days, as dry air lingers aloft. The main threats will be gusty winds to 50-55 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Coverage of showers and storms increases Thursday and into the weekend; A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists Thursday through Saturday, with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Today-Tonight...A low pressure system drifts offshore from the Northeast US coast today, as the Atlantic ridge axis remains across the Straits of Florida. Locally, the tightening pressure gradient between the ridge axis and a surface front sagging through the Southeast will lead to breezy SW winds 10-15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph. Deep moisture in place over the Florida peninsula and SW flow preventing the development of the east coast sea breeze will support hot and muggy conditions across the area today. The highest heat indices (up to 110 degrees) are forecast near and north of the Orlando metro, with a Heat Advisory once again in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM for areas of Orange and northern Brevard Counties northward. Elsewhere, heat indices 102-107 are forecast to be limited by showers and storms this afternoon. Regardless, it looks to be another hot July day for the area, with highs in the lower to mid-90s. Will see little relief overnight, as low remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Coverage of showers and storms is forecast to be near to slightly below normal today, as ridging aloft works to counteract mid- level troughing. Without the east coast sea breeze, CAMs suggest most activity occurring as a wave of showers and storms, which develops over the Gulf mid- morning, then pushes eastward through the afternoon. The highest coverage is expected generally south of the Orlando metro. PoPs attempt to capture this, with chances up to 40% in this area. Can't rule out a stray shower or storm across the area today, so at least 20% exists area-wide. Similar to previous days, a few strong storms will be possible, with wind gusts 50-55 mph. Conditions dry out into the evening and through most of the overnight. Then, scattered showers and storms (30-60%) are forecast to move southward through daybreak, mainly north of I-4, as the front continues southward. Lingering dry air in the mid levels will again support the risk for a few strong storms, even overnight tonight.

Thursday-Saturday...A pattern change ends the week, as the surface frontal boundary stalls in the vicinity of north Florida. Aloft, a mid/upper level trough digs farther southward towards the peninsula, as it moves offshore into the Atlantic. While it moves seaward into the weekend, a series of mid-level shortwaves look to traverse the local area. Upper level support, the nearby boundary, and deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3+") is forecast to lead to high coverage of showers and storms.

Models agreement is somewhat lacking in coverage at times, without a solid feature (like the sea breeze) to hone in on. Regardless, PoPs are forecast up to 60-80% and will be highest initially near and north of the Orlando metro, then spread southward into Saturday. While not necessarily a washout each day, multiple rounds of showers and storms will be possible, especially during the afternoon hours Friday and Saturday. Convection is even forecast to continue into the overnight hours, especially from around Melbourne northward. Showers and storms are forecast to begin the day on Thursday, tapering slightly into the afternoon. Despite muggy conditions, lingering drier air in the mid levels will support DCAPE values 800-1000 J/kg. Therefore, gusty winds 50-55 mph will remain a threat, as well as lightning strikes. Storms will be efficient rainfall producers, with 1-3" likely in a short period of time. Any training storms or multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to accumulating minor flooding concerns each day. Most of east central Florida is highlighted in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall each day through the period.

Breezy SW flow continues Thursday, with winds 10-15 mph and gusty 20-25 mph outside of convection in the afternoon. SW flow slackens into the weekend, as the pressure gradient relaxes. Nonetheless, breezy flow will limit or prevent the formation of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. High coverage of clouds and precipitation will moderate temperatures into the lower 90s. However, peak heat indices 100-105 remain forecast. At night, lows remain in the 70s, struggling to fall out of the 80s at times, especially in the Orlando metro.

Sunday-Wednesday...Upper level ridging develops across Florida Sunday, as the Atlantic ridge axis shifts northward early next week and drags a bit of Saharan Air Layer into the Florida peninsula. During this time, the stalled boundary lifts northward as a warm front, leading to prevailing southerly flow over the local area. With the boundary drifting farther away from the area, will see PoPs trend nearer to normal (40-60%) early next week. However, deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3") lingering over the area on Sunday is forecast to support an additional day of high coverage of showers and storms (60-80%). Convection is expected to peak in the afternoon, aided by the return of the east coast sea breeze and its collisions. Hot temperatures in the lower 90s Sunday will increase a degree or two each day through the period, as coverage of showers and storms diminishes.

MARINE

Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Today-Thursday...Poor boating conditions, mainly offshore, through Thursday night, as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge axis to the south and a stalling boundary near north Florida. SW winds increase to near 15 kts across the nearshore waters today and 15-20 kts offshore, where they will linger into Thursday night. Small craft should exercise caution over the offshore waters through this period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms today become scattered to numerous Thursday into the weekend, increasing the amount of offshore- moving activity. A few strong storms, with gusts to near 45 kts, will be possible, be sure to keep an eye to the western sky for approaching storms. Seas 2-4 ft.

Friday-Monday...High coverage of showers and storms persists through the weekend, with activity moving eastward and offshore, especially in the afternoons. Despite this, boating conditions improve as SW flow slackens to 15 kts or less through Saturday. The ridge axis moves northward into early next week, backing winds S. Wind speeds may reach 15-20 kts at times, mainly offshore. Shower and storm coverage returns to near normal by Monday. Seas 1-3 ft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Southwest flow around 4-7 kts at sunrise increases to 10-15 kts through late morning and the afternoon with locally higher gusts. The east coast sea breeze will not develop today, and a wind shift is not expected. Rain chances are forecast near to slightly below normal today with afternoon VCTS wording across portions of the interior (MCO/ISM/LEE) and at coastal terminals from MLB southward. Coverage and confidence is too low for PROB30s or TEMPOs at this time. Mostly dry during the evening and overnight with high uncertainty in storm chances early Thursday morning. Have started with a mention of VCTS near sunrise Thursday morning for Daytona and the Greater Orlando terminals to capture some of the more aggressive model solutions, but will need to monitor trends with future TAF packages.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 95 77 90 75 / 20 50 60 60 MCO 94 78 91 76 / 30 30 80 50 MLB 93 77 91 76 / 30 20 70 40 VRB 92 75 91 74 / 30 10 50 10 LEE 92 78 89 76 / 30 60 70 60 SFB 94 78 90 77 / 20 50 70 60 ORL 94 78 90 77 / 30 40 80 50 FPR 92 75 91 74 / 20 10 40 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.