textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Strong to severe storms are possible today, mainly this afternoon and evening, with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning, and a non-zero tornado risk

- A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches today, followed by a high risk Wednesday; boating conditions deteriorate rapidly on Wednesday

- Rain chances shift south with a front from Wednesday onward, accompanied by drier and cooler air through Thursday, before another warming trend into next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Today-Tonight...The active, stormy pattern continues today with the risk for a few strong to severe storms. Early this morning, some drier air is entering the mix from Orlando northward. PW here are in the 1.55-1.7" range, with higher values up to 2" bordering to the south. Large scale H5 troughing extends from the Canadian Maritimes along the eastern U.S. coast and across northeast Florida. A very slow-moving cold front is draped across the Mid South, extending east to portions of north MS/AL/GA. This is one of a number of features coming into play over the next 24-36 hours and will provide one focus for convection along the Gulf Coast this afternoon/evening.

Light offshore flow (NW winds 5-10 mph) is forecast today, followed by the developing east coast sea breeze after 12-1 PM. The sea breeze will likely be held closer to the coast/I-95 by WNW winds, which forecast soundings indicate will remain coupled until storms, outflow, or the sea breeze arrives at any given location. Aloft, weak shortwave energy is forecast to eject eastward from the Gulf and phase with PVA along the base of a longwave H5 trough.

PW values recover into the upper 1" to low 2" range fairly quick this afternoon, though a bit of dry air will linger between 500- 700mb from ISM/MLB north. CAMs indicate a moderately unstable environment with SBCAPE at or above 1750-2000 J/kg, in conjunction with steep low-level lapse rates as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s (heat index around 100F). Put it all together, even with marginal mid level lapse rates and relatively warm H5 temps (-7C), and this environment appears supportive of scattered to numerous lightning storms. A few storms could become strong to severe with the main hazards being damaging wind gusts (60+ mph) and coin-sized hail. LCLs will lower through the afternoon as boundary layer moisture builds and lapse rates steepen. Storm-scale boundary collisions, combined with lower cloud bases, means that a funnel cloud or brief tornado also cannot be ruled out. These storms will be proficient rainmakers, too, capable of producing 1-2" per hour. Locations that see repeated rounds of rain/storms could experience minor, localized flooding. Storm motion from the NW at 20-30+ mph should help to keep this threat on the lower end.

As daytime storms gradually taper off from north to south, increased convergence along the approaching cold front may spark additional showers/isolated storms along the coast during pre-dawn hours Wednesday. So, don't be surprised to hear more raindrops or a rumble of thunder overnight into Wednesday, especially closer to the coast. Temps are forecast to settle into the upper 60s to low 70s for most.

Wednesday-Thursday...As the cold front pushes south across the FL Peninsula, northeast winds are forecast to increase. With the highest winds and gusts along the coast, most of ECFL will experience 15+ mph winds with gusts 20-30 mph at times. Plenty of low and upper level clouds will remain overhead, even as the mid levels dry out from north to south. The chance for showers and a couple of storms continues along the front as it moves south, though the highest confidence in measurable rain exists from Sebastian/Lake Kissimmee southward. Daytime temperatures will be quite a change from what we have been experiencing, only reaching the low 80s (mid 80s far south). This ends up about 7-10 degrees below normal for most climate sites. Onshore flow will keep lows in the L/M70s at the coast with interior sites falling into the M/U60s.

An upper level low off the Carolina Coast is forced northeastward on Thursday as sfc-500mb ridging builds across the southeast U.S. The front that pushed south of our area on Wednesday looks to stall across south FL and maintain some rain chance in that direction. There are some discrepancies pertaining to the front's position north/south and how far south drier air actually gets on Thursday. For now, we are maintaining a 35-50% rain chance from the Treasure Coast southward, but there is still some time to see how that plays out (drier or wetter). What's more certain is that daytime temps will again stay in the 80s areawide, feeling more pleasant across the north where drier air has arrived. Thursday looks breezy with onshore winds gusting 20-25 mph at times, so not quite as windy when compared to Wednesday.

Friday-Tuesday...While rain chances are not entirely absent, a lot of dry time is anticipated by the end of the week into the weekend. High pressure remains centered over the southeast U.S. through at least Sunday. A front and upper low over the Ohio Valley attempt to break down this mid/upper ridge early next week. Coastal/marine showers, moving inland from time to time each day, are likely to remain isolated at best through Saturday. Coverage may increase a bit as PW values climb on Sunday and more notably on Monday. If the surface ridge axis slips south of the area by Tuesday and beyond, as current guidance suggests, rain chances could increase by that time. Temperatures will trend up each day, returning to the 90s across the interior as early as Sunday. Heat index values climb back into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Today-Tonight...Light offshore winds this morning will veer onshore in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. High moisture and instability will lead to scattered/numerous showers and lightning storms after 12-1 PM. Some storms could become strong to severe with winds greater than 40-50 kt, large hail, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential rain. Additionally, a waterspout cannot be ruled out. While overall coverage may decrease late tonight, redevelopment of showers and isolated storms is possible as a cold front approaches from the north before daybreak Wednesday. Outside of storms, seas remain 2-4 ft thru midnight (locally higher around storms).

Wednesday-Saturday...As a cold front drops south across the waters early Wednesday, boating conditions are forecast to rapidly deteriorate. Through the day, winds freshen out of the NE (18-22+ kt), especially north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas respond, building to 4-7 ft nearshore / 6-10 ft offshore Wednesday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the local Atlantic, beginning in the Volusia marine legs 4 AM Wednesday. The advisory expands south to the Brevard waters by 8 AM, then the remaining legs early Wednesday afternoon. Seas slowly improve into Thursday, remaining poor to hazardous (especially in the Gulf Stream). Poor boating conditions remain in portions of the Gulf Stream Friday, becoming increasingly favorable by next weekend. Onshore flow stays breezy Thursday 12-18 kt, slackening Friday (10-15 kt) and Saturday (8-14 kt).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Light and variable winds this morning with periods of MVFR CIGs possible. VCSH/VCTS starting between 15-18Z as the sea breeze collision occurs across the eastern portions of the Florida peninsula. Held off on TEMPOs for now, but will likely need them in future packages, especially at coastal terminals. NW winds areawide, becoming more onshore at the coastal terminals this afternoon. VCSH lingering through the overnight hours as a cold front drifts southward across the peninsula. Winds become NE behind the front, picking up in speed Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 90 71 80 71 / 70 70 40 10 MCO 91 72 81 70 / 60 60 30 10 MLB 88 73 81 74 / 60 70 50 20 VRB 88 72 82 72 / 60 60 60 40 LEE 92 72 82 69 / 60 60 30 10 SFB 93 71 82 69 / 70 70 40 10 ORL 91 72 82 70 / 60 60 30 10 FPR 88 72 82 72 / 60 60 60 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ572.