textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Heat Advisory continues through 8PM this evening for heat index values exceeding 108F degrees; Remember to practice heat safety!

- Impactful heat is expected to continue. Maximum heat index values will reach near Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through the weekend and into next week; Additional Heat Advisories are likely for at least portions of east central Florida each day

- Below normal rain chances are forecast this weekend into early next week. Drier air aloft due to the Saharan Air Layer will support strong and gusty winds in any lightning storms each day

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Current-Tonight... Satellite and KMLB radar imagery show isolated to scattered showers and storms developing along and ahead of the east coast sea breeze this afternoon. High-Res guidance has generally shown the greatest coverage building across the interior from Osceola northward (~50-60%) late this afternoon and into the evening. Despite high PWATs analyzed around 2.0", the 15Z XMR sounding and updated MCO ACARS profiles show a layer of dry air above 850 mb. While shear remains weak, isolated strong updrafts which interact with the layer of dry air aloft will be capable of thunderstorm wind gusts of 35-50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Outside of showers and storms, hot conditions continue, and temperatures will continue to climb through the 90s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM for peak heat index values exceeding 108 degrees. Shower and storm activity diminishes or moves west of the local forecast area by 9PM with dry conditions overnight. Low temperatures fall to range the mid to upper 70s.

Weekend... A 500mb ridge continues to build over the southern U.S. this weekend while a surface ridge axis remains extended across central Florida. A thin ribbon of higher moisture lifts from the southeast on Saturday providing the best chances for scattered showers and storms across portions of Okeechobee and the interior Treasure Coast (30-50%), and widely isolated coverage exists further north (20% or less). The surge of locally higher moisture will be short lived, followed by a plume of Saharan dry air. This should keep below seasonal rain chances on Sunday with a 20% chance of isolated showers and storms across the area. Despite low rain chances, efficient surface heating should support a few quick updrafts, and tall storms which interact with dry air aloft will be capable of localized downburst wind gusts of 35-50 mph.

With little relief from showers and storms for most of the area, expect a period of impactful heat to continue. High temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s each day, and a few daily records may be within reach across the north interior. Peak heat index values are forecast to climb near or above 108F, and Heat Advisories look likely to continue into the weekend. Be sure to practice heat safety, and never leave children alone in the car. Look before you lock!

Monday-Thursday... The structure of the 500mb high broadens over the southern U.S. into next week but should still hold influence over east central Florida. Surface low pressure is forecast to move offshore the mid-Atlantic and northeastern seaboard on Monday, and an associated frontal boundary sags into the southeast U.S. The front remains north of central Florida, although it should still increase moisture locally. Low rain chances (20-30%) remain focused near and north of Orlando and Cape Canaveral on Monday before a more seasonal pattern of scattered showers and storms returns areawide into mid week. A period of impactful heat continues with above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 90s forecast each day.

MARINE

Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

High pressure will promote favorable boating conditions through the weekend and into next week. South to southwest flow overnight and early each morning shifts south-southeast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon, and winds mostly remain 10 kts or less. Seas hold 1- 2 ft, building to 3 ft far offshore early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast south of the Cape through late Saturday morning. Drier air will then lead to lower than normal rain chances late Saturday and into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The east coast sea breeze has developed and begun pushing land, shifting light/VRB winds onshore (E-SE) at 5-10 kts behind the boundary. ISO TS/SH have developed across the area, and are expected to increase in coverage becoming SCT-NUM INVOF of KMCO/inland terminals after 21Z as outflow and the sea breezes collide over the interior. Most TS should dissipate or depart westward after 23Z, but some activity could linger INVOF of the inland terminals until around 02Z. Added VCTS to most coastal terminals, and upgraded inland PROB30 to TEMPOs based on latest trends and guidance, but overall TS timing remains unchanged. Quiet and dry overnight, with light/VRB winds. Lower coverage of TS/SH forecast Saturday. Flow becomes more onshore (ESE-SE), favoring quickly development/progression of the east coast sea breeze.

CLIMATE

Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites through this weekend:

Site Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Daytona 96 (2010) 97 (2023) 97 (2023) Leesburg 98 (1991) 96 (1984) 96 (2011) Sanford 98 (2013) 97 (1999) 97 (2023) Orlando 98 (2007) 98 (1938) 101 (1918) Melbourne 97 (2010) 98 (1963) 96 (2022) Vero Beach 97 (1993) 95 (1993) 96 (2022) Fort Pierce 96 (1929) 97 (1929) 97 (1948)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 94 77 94 / 0 20 10 20 MCO 76 97 77 97 / 10 20 20 20 MLB 78 92 78 94 / 10 10 0 20 VRB 76 92 76 93 / 0 20 0 10 LEE 78 96 78 96 / 20 20 20 10 SFB 77 96 78 96 / 10 20 10 30 ORL 77 96 78 96 / 10 20 20 20 FPR 76 92 75 94 / 10 30 0 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.