textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 244 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Patchy to areas of (dense) fog and low stratus clouds may promote traveling concerns early this morning and again Friday morning. This may produce localized visibilities of a half-mile or less. When encountering fog, slow down, increase following distance, and use low-beam headlights.

- Small precip chances enter the picture today, though any amounts will be light. Higher chances and a few lightning storms return to the forecast Sunday-Sunday night with the approach of a stronger low pressure system.

- Generally above normal temperatures continue this week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Current-Tonight...Will monitor patchy to areas of (dense) fog potential and low stratus cloud development early in the period. Won't rule out a Dense Fog Advisory (DF.A) later this morning. Anything that develops should gradually burn- off/dissipate through mid to late morning, though we will retain considerably to mostly cloudy skies for much of ECFL through the day; only exception possibly for Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast that may have the best opportunities for any decent breaks in cloud-cover. A weak frontal boundary will sag into ECFL during the day, with PWATs only increasing to around 1.10-1.15". Latest model guidance continues to suggest a low PoP across the area mainly in the afternoon/early evening with 20-30pct chances. Any precip amounts likely small. A low to medium (20-30pct) threat continues mainly along the Space/Treasure coasts thru late evening.

Light morning westerly winds will veer to northwest 8-12 mph by afternoon and possibly even to N/NNE across Volusia County ahead of sunset. There may even be a short-lived sea breeze (onshore component of winds) along the Space/Treasure coasts late in the day. Winds tonight decrease back to light NWRLY for most.

Chilliest today along the Volusia and north Brevard coasts where highs will struggle into the U60s to L70s. Expect M70s for maxes along the immediate coast and further into the interior, except south of Orlando/W of I-95 where U70s are likely and a few 80 degree readings near Lake Okee. Lows mainly in the L-M50s, perhaps a few U50s around major metropolitan areas and for barrier islands. We may see a return to overnight/early morning patchy (dense) fog potential.

Fri-Sat...The aforementioned front becomes more diffuse into late Fri/Sat across south-central FL and the adjacent coastal waters. Moisture (PWATs 0.90-1.10") continues to be meager at best. Models have cut back on mentionable precip potential (~10%) for Fri, though cannot rule out an ISOLD sprinkle/brief shower along the Treasure Coast. A slim light precip threat continues on Sat (aftn) along the Space/Treasure coasts with a small onshore-moving potential. Again, if any measurable rain falls, it will be light. Light morning northerly winds on Fri gradually transitioning onshore (NE) 7-12 mph into the afternoon. Light onshore flow continues into Sat, with directional component continuing to veer to E/SE.

Highs on Fri/Sat in the L-M70s along the coast, with interior locales realizing M-U70s. Lows continue mainly in the 50s, but perhaps some U40s around Lake George on Sat morning. Perhaps a few L60s across ECFL for Sat overnight/Sun morning.

Sun-Wed...Medium range models are very slowly trying to come into better agreement, though the ECMWF continues to offer a faster solution compared to the GFS. In the mid-levels, a vigorous trough east of the Ark/La/Tex region, early in the period will continue to track eastward thru early Mon morning. The ECMWF has this trough along the southeast U.S. coast by 12Z Mon; whereas the GFS has it across the FL Panhandle/north FL - lagging behind. This is still creating issues with timing of the next surface cold front into/through ECFL. The ECMWF brings the boundary thru ECFL late Sun overnight into early Mon morning and the GFS still during the day on Mon. We continue with a broad-brush of PoP chances Sun (30-60pct), Sun night (60-80pct), and Mon (30-40pct). We still should be able to better align timing with consistency in future model runs and as time draws near. We continue to carry a low- medium (20-30pct) chance for lightning storms Sun afternoon-Mon.

In spite of timing of clouds/precip on Sun ahead of the next approaching cold front, temperatures still expected to spike in the U70s along the coast and L80s inland, thanks in part to southerly flow. Highs generally in the 70s areawide on Mon/Tue; perhaps some 80 degree readings towards Lake Okee. A quick return to U70s along the coast and L80s interior by Wed. Lows in the U50s to L60s Mon morning, and 50s for Tue/Wed/Thu mornings.

Breezy and gusty southerly winds ahead of the front on Sun will decrease and turn northwest/north behind the front on Mon/Tue and possibly light onshore again by Wed.

MARINE

Issued at 244 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary will settle south across the local waters. This feature will turn winds NW/N. Initial wind speeds 15-20 kts well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet early in the period will gradually decrease to 10-15 kts during the day. Northerly winds generally 6-12 kts tonight. Seas initially 2-4 ft, except up to 5 ft well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet will continue to subside to 2- 4 ft areawide during the day and through tonight. Long period swells continue to slowly back down. ISOLD-SCT shower chances developing - highest potential over the Gulf Stream.

Fri-Mon...The aforementioned weak frontal boundary settles across the south-central peninsula becoming quasi-stationary and gradually decaying through Fri/Sat. The ISOLD-SCT shower chances continue through Sat night, nearly areawide. A stronger low pressure system (still model differences in timing) moves across the local waters late Sun into Mon of next week. Shower chances increase to SCT/NMRS thru the day on Sun, increasing to NMRS-WDSP Sun night, and back to SCT on Mon (post-frontal). There will be an ISOLD-SCT (20-30pct) lightning storm threat also present Sun aftn-Mon.

Winds Fri-Fri night transition onshore (NE/E) 7-14 kts, continuing E/SE into Sat. Sat overnight winds continue to veer to SE/SSE increasing a bit to 12-19 kts. On Sun, southerly winds continue to strengthen 15-25 kts, SWRLY Sun night, depending on timing/strength of the next system. Winds could approach 25-30 kts well offshore with at least occasional gusts to Gale Force. Winds turn W/NW, post- frontal, and diminish.

Seas continue mainly 2-4 ft into early Sun, then begin to build 4-6 ft (perhaps 7 ft well offshore) in response to the increasing winds on Sun, and maybe a little higher into Sun night. Seas will slowly subside in response to the decreasing winds behind the front on Mon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1245 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

MVFR CIGs remain as morning stratus is slow to dissipate. Have a few TEMPOs at affected sites for CIG thru 19z-20z and will amend as needed. Light northwest winds (around 10 kt or less) veer more NE along the coast this afternoon. A front is forecast to stall over the area thru Fri. Low chance for -SHRA exists, mainly after 21-23z, ending by 04z at Treasure Coast terminals.

Model guidance is less conclusive on stratus/fog formation after 09z Fri., so only included MVFR CIG at LEE for now. This may need to be expanded east to SFB/MCO/ISM in future TAF cycles.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 244 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Low cloud ceilings are anticipated this morning. Improvement in ceilings may take through the morning or early afternoon to recover. A weak frontal boundary will drop south across north- central FL today, before stalling and becoming diffuse over south- central FL into late week. Winds will turn northwest to north at 7-12 mph during the day, before veering northeast on Friday, and east to southeast on Saturday. Light rain chances (20-30%) return to the forecast today and perhaps along the Brevard/Treasure coasts on Saturday. Chances will increase steadily during the day/evening on Sunday into at least early Mon. Any precip amounts through Saturday are expected to be light.

Min RH values are forecast to remain above critical through the extended. Smoke dispersion will become Fair to Generally Good today and Friday, and Generally Good to Very Good on Saturday. Excellent dispersion is likely on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens and southerly winds become breezy/gusty.

A stronger storm system with deeper moisture moves toward east central FL on Sunday thru early Monday. Timing issues still exist, but medium to high shower chances (40-80%) and a low to medium chance for lightning storms (20-30%) accompany its passing late this weekend into early next week.

Fog Potential...Patchy to areas of fog are forecast early this morning and possibly, once again, late tonight into Friday morning. This may produce localized visibilities of a half-mile or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 52 71 54 73 / 10 10 0 10 MCO 55 75 55 78 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 53 73 58 74 / 20 10 0 10 VRB 53 75 58 76 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 52 75 53 77 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 53 75 54 76 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 55 75 56 77 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 53 75 57 76 / 20 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.