textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 228 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

- Remaining mild to warm today. A strong cold front pushes south with rain showers diminishing, followed by breezy/gusty west- northwest winds. Worsening boating conditions into tonight.

- Windy tonight as decidedly colder air arrives. A Cold Weather Advisory has been posted for all except the immediate Space and Treasure coasts. In the advisory area, wind chills of 30 degrees or less will make it feel even colder.

- Multiple nights of unusually cold weather yet to come. A Freeze Warning is in effect for areas north of Orlando overnight, and a Freeze Watch has been issued for Greater Orlando, Osceola County, and points northward for Tuesday night. Consider covering tender plants or bringing them inside, if possible.

- Confidence is high that below-normal temperatures will last for the next week to ten days, if not longer. There is a low to moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures late this weekend or early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Current-Tonight...The strong cold front continues to sweep into the southern FL peninsula this afternoon. Strongest convective activity has now pushed south of the Treasure with brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will continue to see breaks in cloud- cover southward through the afternoon (north-south). Cooler, drier air will advect southward behind the front this evening and overnight. Breezy/gusty W/NW winds will follow behind the front with gusts to 25 to 30 mph, perhaps up to around 35 across barrier islands tonight. Much colder air will barrel down the peninsula with a vengeance overnight. A Freeze Warning is currently in place for late tonight into Tue morning for Lake and interior Volusia counties. A Cold Weather Advisory has also been issued for much of the area, keeping out immediate Space/Treasure coasts.

Temps within the Freeze Warning may dip down into the U20s to L30s for a few hours, while M-U30s extend to coastal Volusia and southward to Lake Okee and interior reaches of Brevard and western Indian River counties. Elsewhere, temps range from the L-M40s along the immediate Brevard/Indian River coasts and interior Treasure Coast counties, with U40s to L50s closer towards the St. Lucie/Martin coasts. Lowest wind chill values overnight into early Tue morning will see widespread 20s and L30s across the entirety of the interior, Volusia & Space coasts, and M-U30s for coastal Indian River/coastal St. Lucie counties, save for near 40F to M40s for coastal Martin County.

Tue-Fri...Surface high pressure is forecast to build across the Gulf towards the FL peninsula thru mid-week. This will keep northerly winds through the period, which may be breezy at times, especially along the coast. Mainly dry conditions prevail, as PWATs generally remain 0.6" or less thru the period. The main focus will continue to be the abnormally persistent pattern of well below normal temps. Max temps in the 50s to M60s (few U60s far south) are forecast thru the work-week, ranging from as much as 10-15 degrees below climo each day. Overnight lows in the 30s and L40s will also continue, and will need to monitor the threat for freezing temperatures in the normally colder spots, as well as lowest wind chills/apparent temps below 30 degrees. Expect to see continued cold weather headlines through the week.

Some questions remain regarding RH recovery overnight, but could at least see some patchy frost development beginning Tue/Wed overnights, perhaps some areas of frost, too, esp in rural areas west of I-95. Those with annual and tropical plants will need to take action to protect them for multiple days.

Weekend-Mon...The cold weather pattern is expected to continue into the extended. The primary concern will revolve around the development of a low pressure system off of the southeast U.S. coast & Atlc Seaboard this weekend. This system could act to pull in much colder (Arctic) air funneling it down the peninsula. Confidence may remain low these next couple of days until further model consistency presents itself. There will be ISOLD/SCT precip chances Fri night-Sat evening over land presently. Placement and strength of aforementioned low pressure will also create a tight pressure gradient across ECFL, which would potentially produce breezy/windy/gusty conditions across land - esp near the coast late Sat into Sun.

Previous...Whether temperatures remain manageably cooler than normal or become significantly colder than normal is still in question. While this is more of a reasonable worst-case scenario signal, the overall pattern we are entering has historically supported major freezes and significant cold air outbreaks in Florida. Those making plans outdoors or whom have sensitive agricultural interests should keep a close eye on the forecast as this hopefully becomes clearer by mid-week.

MARINE

Issued at 228 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Boating conditions quickly become very hazardous into this evening and overnight, as strong NW/N winds filter down the coast behind the most recent strong cold front. As such, a Gale Warning goes into effect areawide early this evening lasting until 12Z/7AM Tue morning. Expect wind speeds 25-30+ kts with frequent gusts to Gale Force during this time. Very rough seas are expected with wave heights building to 7-10 ft near shore and up to 13 ft offshore/Gulf Stream. Small Craft Advisories will continue after this time as winds gradually diminish with seas much slower to subside, esp Gulf Stream, into mid-week. Another (lesser) surge in winds/seas occurs on Thu with a reinforcing cold front. Then, this weekend (while confidence still low) we could see another strong weather system bring, again, very hazardous boating conditions (winds/seas) to the local waters.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1237 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

The cold front has pushed south of KMCO, near KTIX. Ahead, a line of deep convection has managed to develop impacting KVRB-KSUA with gusts a bit over 30 kts and VIS reductions to less than a mile. MVFR CIGs are also persisting, and outside of convection southwesterly to westerly winds around 15 kts are gusting to around 25 kts. Behind the front, mainly VFR conditions at ECFL terminals, though some occasional MVFR CIGs from cloud fields west and north of the area could filter in over the next few hours. Mostly clear to clear skies expected by the evening.

Winds lull a bit to 10-15 kts immediately behind the front as they shift from westerly to northwesterly, then later this evening and tonight northwesterly winds are expected to surge to 15-20 kts with gusts over 25 kts, before settling to 10-15 kts Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Behind a recent strong cold front, much drier/colder air settles over central FL Peninsula beginning overnight and continuing thru next weekend. Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Tue, with fire-sensitive weather persisting through at least mid-week. Brisk northwest winds from 8-15 MPH are expected as RH values drop to 25-35% over the interior. RH values drop to 20-30% across all but the immediate coast once again on Wed and Thu, but northwest winds decrease slightly to around 5-10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 33 52 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 36 56 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 40 58 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 44 61 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 31 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 34 55 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 36 55 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 44 62 39 64 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347-547.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044-144.

Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550- 552.

Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555- 570-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ570-572.