textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

- The chilliest weather since last winter is expected for one more night tonight, especially over the interior where wind chills in the low to mid 40s are forecast

- The next chance for rainfall will be early to mid-week next week, but there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. Coastal and marine impacts are more than likely mid to late week

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin over previous weeks. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather across east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate mostly to partly sunny skies. Temperatures are currently in the low to upper 60s with dew points in the low 30s to mid 40s. Winds are from the north at 5-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Analysis charts show expansive high pressure to the north of east central Florida (~1029mb) building over the central CONUS to the Midwest. Dry weather is expected tonight. Expect another cold night with low temperatures in the low to upper 40s along and north of I-4 and the upper 40s to mid 50s to the south. Apparent temperatures will be close to cold weather shelter thresholds but are expected to stay just at or above 40F north of I-4 with the low to upper 40s inland north and west of the Treasure Coast, as well as in the near the coast north of Titusville. The mid 40s to mid 50s are forecast elsewhere. There is a 0-50% chance for apparent temperatures to reach 40F or below, 0-30% for portions of Orange, 0-30% for portions of Lake, and 0-20% for portions of Volusia county. If the aforementioned criteria is met, then the apparent temperature threshold is likely to only occur for approximately 1-2 hours.

Sunday-Monday... The dry weather is expected to persist through the weekend as high pressure builds to the north over the eastern CONUS. Rain chances increase over the local Atlantic waters and near the coast into the workweek as onshore flow develops, as well as an upper level trough deepens to the northwest of east central Florida over the Deep South. Below normal temperatures are expected with highs in the low to upper 70s, as well as lows in the low to mid 50s north of I-4 and the mid 50s to mid 60s to the south.

Tuesday-Friday... Guidance has come into better agreement with the mid to long term forecast. There are still some differences in the strength of a trough/low that is forecast to track northeast over the western Atlantic and how close the trough/low gets to the eastern Florida coast which would make a difference on the level of coastal and marine impacts east central Florida is expected to experience mid to late week, as well as available moisture for east central Florida. The LREF-clusters are in fairly good agreement on the associated 500mb trough deepening over the state of Florida, in addition to the northern Florida and east central Florida Atlantic waters. Regardless, rain chances are expected to increase on Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and a low chance of lightning. Rain chances are expected to remain above normal each day through the end of the workweek. Additionally, breezy to potentially windy conditions are forecast each day, as well as a coastal and marine impacts. Temperatures are forecast to be seasonable for highs and seasonable to below normal for lows.

MARINE

Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions and dry weather are forecast through tonight with high pressure to the northwest. North winds at 15-20kts are forecast to weaken tonight to 10-15kts. Seas to 2-4ft nearshore and 5-6ft offshore are forecast to diminish to 2-4ft tonight. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across the Treasure Coast offshore waters.

Sunday-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to deteriorate on Monday and through midweek. Onshore moving isolated to scattered showers are forecast on Monday before rain chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers, as well as a low chance for lightning. Expect north- northeast winds at 10-15kts on Sunday to shift east at 15-25kts Monday and increase to 25-30kts on Wednesday. Seas to 2-4ft Sunday are expected to increase 3-5ft with up to 6ft offshore and over the Gulf Stream on Monday before increasing to 5-8ft Monday night into Tuesday, and 7-11ft on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1250 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conds through the TAF period. N/NW winds 10-12 knots occasionally gusting 16-18 knots this afternoon. Winds becoming light north tonight, below 10 knots, then veering N/NE on Sunday around 10 knots.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for Cocoa (COCF1), Geneva (GENF1), and Astor (ASTF1) on the St. Johns. The river west of Cocoa is in Major Flood Stage but appears to be cresting and is now forecast to begin a slow decline next week. The other points (Deland and Sanford) are forecast to remain in Action stage which is below Minor flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid next week, but there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any implications for ongoing flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 48 71 57 73 / 0 0 10 20 MCO 48 73 56 75 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 53 75 62 76 / 0 0 20 20 VRB 54 77 62 78 / 0 0 20 20 LEE 45 72 53 74 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 47 73 56 75 / 0 0 10 20 ORL 49 73 56 75 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 52 76 61 77 / 0 0 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.