textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

- A strong cold front will move across east central Florida today, bringing increasing rain chances out ahead of it.

- Northwest winds behind the front become strong and gusty, with a 10% chance of gusts up to 50 mph across the area. A Wind Advisory will be in effect for all of east central Florida today.

- Temperatures quickly fall behind the front, with a return of well below-normal temperatures and bitter wind chills. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory will both be in effect for portions of east central Florida late tonight into early Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Today-Tonight...A strong cold front will approach and move southward across east central Florida today, bringing a variety of weather concerns along with it. Rain chances increase out ahead of the front, with the first showers already beginning to develop early this morning across far northern portions of the area. Coverage is forecast to increase from north to south as the front moves southward across the area, with rain chances decreasing by this afternoon as the front moves south of east central Florida. A lack of instability will limit any storm development, so have continued to leave out any mention of thunder within the forecast.

Immediately along and behind the front, winds veer to out of the northwest, with windy and gusty conditions forecast areawide. Sustained winds are anticipated to reach 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible. There is also a low chance (10%) for a gust to 50 mph in some spots. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 10 AM for the Orlando and Daytona Beach areas, expanding southward to the Space and Treasure Coast areas at 12 PM. Winds are anticipated to subside below advisory threshold by 5 PM, though breezy and gusty conditions are anticipated to continue into the late evening and overnight hours.

A sharp temperature gradient will be present across east central Florida as a result of the cold front passage today. Highs will range from the low 60s across northern Volusia and Lake counties all the way to the low 80s across the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will rapidly cool as the front moves southward, which will be noticeable when in combination with the windy and gusty conditions. The northwesterly winds will help advect the colder air mass towards east central Florida, resulting in sharply colder temperatures tonight. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s across most of east central Florida, with the coldest temperatures primarily focused across the interior and rural areas. A Freeze Warning will be in effect late tonight into early Monday morning for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Volusia counties. Aside from temperatures simply being cold, the persistent breezy and gusty winds will cause wind chill values to fall below 30 degrees across most of east central Florida. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory will also be in effect for all of east central Florida except coastal Martin County. Residents and visitors are encouraged to dress appropriately, protect sensitive plants, keep pets indoors, and use any space heaters safely.

Monday-Wednesday...Behind the cold front, an area of high pressure is forecast to build across the southeastern US, gradually shifting eastward and off the coast out across the Atlantic by mid-week. Locally, this will result in a return of mostly dry conditions areawide as the cool, dry air mass settles southward. Rain chances remain near zero Monday through Wednesday. North winds persist into Monday, slowly becoming northeasterly by mid- week as the high shifts offshore. Breezy conditions will also persist, with winds of 10 to 15 mph forecast each afternoon.

Temperatures on Monday afternoon will be below-normal in the mid 50s to mid 60s areawide with yet another night of cold temperatures anticipated Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lows fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s and even though freezing temperatures aren't anticipated to be a concern, persistent breezy winds Monday night will lead to wind chill values falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s across most of the interior west of I-95. An additional Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for interior zones of east central Florida Monday night into Tuesday. Patchy frost also cannot be ruled out Monday night into Tuesday across northern rural portions of Lake and Volusia counties, though confidence remains low. Tuesday and Wednesday, afternoon temperatures begin to slowly warm closer to near-normal values in the 60s and low 70s. One more night of near to slightly below normal temperatures on Tuesday night in the 40s to mid 50s, warming into the 50s areawide by Wednesday night.

Thursday-Saturday...Looking into the extended period, the next best chance for rain begins on Thursday out ahead of the next potential cold front passage. Timing discrepancies between long- range guidance has led the NBM to maintain a 20-40% chance of rain Thursday through Friday, so have stuck with this for now given uncertainty. The expectation is that PoPs will trend more towards one day as the timing becomes clearer. High pressure will then strengthen across the southeastern US late this week and into next weekend behind the front, leading to a return of drier conditions across the peninsula and some low chances for showers across the local Atlantic waters. The warming trend continues late this week into next weekend, with a return of near to above normal temperatures forecast areawide

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

A strong cold front will approach and move across the local Atlantic waters today, with rain chances forecast to increase out ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous showers will be possible across the local waters, with rain chances dropping quickly as the front moves south of the area. Immediately behind the front, boating conditions are anticipated to rapidly deteriorate and become hazardous. Strong, gusty northwest winds are forecast to develop, with wind speeds of 15 to 30 knots and gale-force gusts possible. Seas respond by rapidly building up to 8 feet across the offshore waters, remaining closer to 4-6 feet across the nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisories expand across the local waters with the wind surge and linger across the Gulf Stream waters due to the higher seas into Monday.

Conditions slowly improve into Monday as winds and seas subside, with dry conditions returning as high pressure builds just north of the area. By Tuesday, the passage of a reinforcing front will lead to another surge of poor boating conditions across the offshore waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Poor conditions then persist as onshore winds increase on Wednesday and back to out of the north on Thursday ahead of the next potential frontal passage. Rain chances reenter the forecast on Thursday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1206 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

MCO IMPACTS: - Powerful cold front still scheduled to arrive around 18/17Z with abruptly stronger northwesterly wind gusts. 68-80% chance of wind gusts >= 30 KT.

- Brief CIG reductions and showers along and just behind the front on Sun midday-early afternoon.

CROSSWIND POTENTIAL: - Along the front on Sun early afternoon...MCO 18/36 & 17/35: 15-20 KT; DAB 07/25: 20-28 KT

Generally VFR overnight...dry...with winds light/variable. Will monitor for localized patchy fog along the Treasure Coast terminals. Focus turns to the strong cold front arriving from NW to SE on Sun late morning - mid afternoon. Sudden wind shifts from SW to NW are anticipated as the front passes. In addition, peak gusts from 30-35 KT appear likely (~ 60% +) with localized gusts to 40-45 KT a lower, but non-zero probability. Guidance temporarily restricts CIGs to MVFR or even IFR along and just behind the front. Clouds scatter and gusts quickly decrease Sun evening as the front sweeps offshore.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast over the next couple of days. Today, strong, gusty northwest winds are forecast immediately behind a cold front, with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph forecast and gusts of 35 to 50 mph possible. While minimum RH values will not be a concern, these winds could lead to control concerns for any existing or smoldering fires. Monday, minimum RH values will tank as dry air settles across the area, with RH values falling below 35% across the interior west of I-95. Periods of 10 to 15 mph winds will also be possible on Monday, leading to near- critical conditions at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 69 33 56 39 / 70 0 0 0 MCO 73 35 58 40 / 50 0 0 0 MLB 79 37 61 45 / 30 0 0 0 VRB 81 39 63 46 / 20 0 0 0 LEE 65 32 57 35 / 70 0 0 0 SFB 69 33 58 37 / 60 0 0 0 ORL 71 35 58 39 / 60 0 0 0 FPR 81 39 64 45 / 20 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for FLZ058-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ572.