textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend. Residents and visitors to Central Florida's Atlantic beaches should stay out of the ocean.

- Breezy conditions persist today, with mostly dry conditions. - Higher rain coverage and increasingly strong onshore winds are forecast next week, as a front moves through the state. Beach and boating conditions will become increasingly hazardous.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure over the western Atlantic maintains a ridge axis well north of the local area today. Drier air lingers over eastern half of the peninsula, though could see a few waves of moisture, with PWATs near 1.2" traverse the area through the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions prevail, though can't rule out a shower in one of the bands of moisture, should a cloud become a little thicker, especially along the southern Treasure Coast this afternoon. Models suggest a shower or two near Palm Beach County today, so have maintained 20% PoPs for Martin County, with a lightning strike or two possible. Generally dry conditions then prevail into tonight.

Onshore flow persists, with breezy conditions, especially along the coast. East-southeast winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, are once again forecast this afternoon. Cooler ocean temperatures will help to keep coastal counties in the lower 80s this afternoon, while inland locations reach the mid to near upper 80s. Winds become light after sunset, as overnight lows dip into the 60s.

Sunday-Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge weakens through the weekend, drifting farther offshore ahead of an approaching front, though the ridge axis will drift southward towards the local area as it flattens. Deeper moisture begins to advect into the peninsula, with PWATs near 1.3-1.4". Rain chances increase accordingly, up to 30- 50%. However, lingering drier air aloft will be a hindrance to deep convection. The best chance for storms looks to be over the interior, where lighter winds allow for a sea breeze collision in the afternoon. Should cells be able to overcome the dry air, it could contribute to a few stronger storms, with wind gusts near 50 mph and small hail. East-southeast winds remain around 10-15 mph along the coast, where highs will remain in the lower 80s. Inland will see highs in the mid to upper 80s.

A weakening cold front sags southward through the area into mid-week next week, as strong high pressure develops over the eastern US and tightens the pressure gradient. Deep moisture, with PWATs 1.5-1.7", support along the front, and a strengthening subtropical jet aloft will lead to widespread PoPs 60-70% and up to 80% on Tuesday. Models have had trouble agreeing on the timing/placement of the front and have also differed from run to run, so confidence leaves something to be desired in the exact timing of the highest rain chances or rainfall totals. However, what is more confident is that the southwesterly jet aloft will oppose lower level breezy to windy onshore flow. This makes for a good setup for convergence showers and storms along the coast, some of which may linger over areas for an extended period of time. The bottom line is that coastal conditions will be unfavorable through at least mid-week, due to breezy to windy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday and we will need to monitor the threat for locally heavy rainfall over the next few days. Fortunately, ongoing drought conditions mean that any rainfall will be largely beneficial, as long as it doesn't become excessive. Current 90th percentile rainfall accumulations peak around 3-4". Higher cloud cover, rainfall, and breezy winds will keep high temperatures below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, in the lower to mid- 70s.

Thursday-Saturday...Uncertainty lingers late next week into the weekend in terms of precipitation chances, timing, and accumulations, as models diverge. However, strong high pressure lingers over the eastern US, maintaining at least breezy conditions and coastal concerns. For now, NBM PoPs show rain chances 40-60% lingering Thursday, before high pressure aloft keeps PoPs to 20-30% or less into the weekend. With diminishing rain chances, high temperatures creep back into the upper 70s to lower 80s through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Periods of poor boating conditions due to ESE winds 15-20 kts and seas up to 6 ft linger today across the offshore waters. More favorable boating conditions return Sunday into Monday, as high pressure weakens and a cold front approaches the area. Winds diminish to 10-15 kts Sunday, before weakening further and veering offshore for a good portion of the day on Monday. Seas become 3-5 ft. However, increasing moisture will lead to higher rain and storm chances late weekend and into early next week.

As the aforementioned front sags southward through the local waters into mid-week, strong high pressure develops over the eastern US. A tight pressure gradient will produce rapidly increasing winds Tuesday into Tuesday night, reaching gale-force gusts prior to sunrise Wednesday. Near-gale onshore winds then look to persist through at least mid-week. Needless to say, conditions will be hazardous to dangerous much of next week, as seas build to 12-16 ft. High coverage of onshore-moving showers and embedded storms will enhance the unfavorable conditions.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Fairly quiet with persistence pattern for this TAF period. Mainly VFR with E/SE breezes 10-20 kt, gusting up to 25 kt in the afternoon hours. Shower chances are < 20%, too low to mention in TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 82 66 84 65 / 10 0 40 40 MCO 84 67 86 67 / 10 0 50 30 MLB 81 69 82 66 / 10 0 40 30 VRB 82 68 83 66 / 10 10 30 30 LEE 87 66 88 66 / 10 0 40 30 SFB 85 66 87 66 / 10 0 50 30 ORL 85 67 87 67 / 10 0 50 30 FPR 82 67 83 65 / 10 10 40 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.