textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Scattered showers and storms will shift eastward across east central Florida and offshore through this afternoon/evening. Strong wind gusts and frequent lightning will occur with any stronger storms.

- Near-normal rain and storm chances continue Tuesday, with the arrival of more Saharan dust limiting rain and storm chances into midweek.

- Hot, humid July temperatures will lead to afternoon heat indices between 102-107F each day. Be sure to practice heat safety!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Today-Tuesday...Subtropical ridge axis remains just south of the area early this week, as a weak front stalls out across the Southeast United States. This maintains an offshore flow across the region that will tend to shift scattered showers and storms across east central Florida and offshore through the afternoon/evening hours each day. Rain chances range from 50-60% today and 30-50% Tuesday. Hi-res model guidance tends to favor a slightly earlier start to convective development again today, initiating across northern portions of central FL in the late morning/early afternoon, with coverage increasing farther south through Brevard County and Treasure Coast region during the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. A similar trend will be possible into Tuesday. Enhancement in storms will occur with any boundary collisions with the east coast sea breeze, which is most likely to develop from near the Cape southward.

Saharan dust will continue to filter into the area leading to some drier air in the mid levels, which should help lead to a few stronger storms each day. Main storm threats will be strong wind gusts to around 40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3". However, can't rule out some small hail with 500mb temps around -7 to -8C, and an increase in low level shear with storms interacting with the east coast sea breeze could lead to a brief funnel cloud or two.

Hot and humid conditions will continue with highs in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values look to largely remain just below Heat Advisory thresholds, but will still be elevated around 102-107F. Therefore, it will still be important to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take plenty of breaks in the A/C, and NEVER leave children or pets unattended in a car for any period of time.

Wednesday-Thursday...Lingering drier air aloft associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will persist through midweek, leading to decreasing coverage of afternoon/evening showers and storms both Wednesday and Thursday. A continued offshore flow will still focus greatest rain chances toward east central Florida, especially toward the coast near to north of the Cape (up to 30-50% Wednesday and 30% on Thursday). Elsewhere, rain chances currently range from 20% or less across the remainder of the area. Below normal storm coverage will allow max temps to rise, with most locations seeing highs in the mid 90s. Mixing down of drier air may lead to a slight decline in dewpoints, but with the above normal temps will still produce peak heat index values around 102-107F.

Friday-Sunday...Surface ridge axis remains near to south of the area into late week and next weekend, with moisture gradually increasing once again and SAL diminishing. This will lead to a return of more normal coverage of showers and storms each afternoon and evening, with PoPs around 20-40%. Above normal heat will linger with highs in the mid 90s for much of the area and heat index values nearing or just below Heat Advisory thresholds.

MARINE

Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will generally remain near to south of the waters through the work week, with offshore winds out of the W/SW during the overnight and morning hours, switching the the S/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. Wind speeds will largely remain below 15 knots, with seas 1-3 feet. Main hazard to boaters will be offshore moving storms during the afternoon/evening. Scattered showers and storms pushing off the coast are forecast today and Tuesday (rain chances up to 50- 60%), with coverage of this activity decreasing through midweek. Any storms that push offshore will be capable of producing strong wind gusts near or in excess of 34 knots and frequent lightning strikes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection at ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Quiet through morning with light WSW-SW/VRB winds, which pick up to 5-10 kts from the W-SW in the late morning. The east coast sea breeze develops after 17Z, but offshore flow will slow inland progression. Winds shift E-SE around 10 kts behind the boundary, which should stay east of the inland terminals. ISO TS could develop on the sea breeze after 16Z. Confidence in afternoon-evening TS timing is still lower than normal, dependent on evolution of a line of TS developing over the North Gulf coast in the morning. General trends call for an earlier than normal start to TS again, as early as 16Z inland on outflow from the Gulf, sweeping across the peninsula with the quick moving west coast sea breeze which may also produce TS. SCT-NUM TS will collide with the slowed east coast sea breeze over ECFL, producing additional TS as early as 18Z near to north of the Cape, then propagating south. Added TEMPOs for TS impacts with this package, but hedged timing in the middle of the 2-hour start range. For most terminals, steering flow should usher TS away fairly quickly, but there is potential for more prolonged impacts at KVRB-KSUA. Quiet after convection clears. Winds become light SW-SSW/VRB after 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 75 92 75 / 60 10 50 10 MCO 94 76 96 76 / 50 20 40 10 MLB 93 76 92 77 / 60 30 50 20 VRB 94 75 94 75 / 50 40 50 30 LEE 92 77 93 77 / 50 10 30 10 SFB 93 76 95 76 / 50 10 40 10 ORL 94 77 94 77 / 50 20 40 10 FPR 94 75 94 75 / 50 40 50 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.