textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect for all of east central Florida today through 8pm for heat index values up to 108F-112F degrees; Remember to practice heat safety!

- Hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue for the next week. Maximum heat index values will reach near Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through the weekend; Additional Heat Advisories are likely for at least portions of east central Florida.

- Below normal rain chances continue into early next week. Drier air aloft due to the Saharan Air Layer will support strong, gusty winds in any lightning storms each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Rest of Today-Friday...Isolated showers and storms have begun to develop across the area this afternoon, with a somewhat delayed start to the sea breeze. The sea breeze will be the main focus for convection today, though CAMs suggest outflow from ongoing storms across north Florida sparking additional activity generally north of Orlando. PoPs reflect this possibility, though PoPs overall remain below normal for mid-August (up to 30-40%). Slower storm motions could support outflow collisions into this evening, but convection is forecast to diminish by around 10 PM or so. The 15Z XMR sounding found DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, so will need to watch for a few strong storms this afternoon with gusts to 50 mph. Slow moving storms and ample moisture could also lead to a quick 1-3" in a few spots.

Expect similar conditions for the remainder of the work week, as high pressure dominates the local pattern. Light W/SW flow backs S/SE at the coast and increases to around 10 mph with the development of the sea breeze in the afternoons. PWATs 2-2.3" and the sea breeze collision over the eastern half of the peninsula will continue to support scattered showers and storms, but PoPs are still below normal (30-40%). Strong storms with gusty winds to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall will remain threats, as drier air aloft due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lingers. Hot temperatures in the 90s and muggy dew points will continue to produce heat indices near Heat Advisory criteria (108F). Additional Heat Advisories are possible each day. Regardless, be sure to practice heat safety!

Saturday-Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge axis builds back towards the peninsula on Saturday. Then, surface ridging once again moves westward across the peninsula and into the Gulf through early next week. Aloft, a strong upper level high moves southward into the Southeast US and flattens through the period. All of this results in little perceptible change to the overall pattern for east central Florida. PoPs remain below normal, generally 30-40% or less, though most areas will likely remain dry most days. Sunday looks to be the driest day, with PoPs below 20% area-wide. Strong storms will remain possible each afternoon, with waves of SAL supporting wind gusts to 50 mph in storms that can survive the overall subsidence. Any areas that see rainfall could pick up a quick 1-3" due to light storm motions and PWATs 2+" at times. The afternoon sea breeze will have to work to overcome the light offshore flow. Highs in the mid-90s will creep towards the upper 90s at times, with humid conditions continuing. Additional Heat Advisories will need to be considered through at least the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Favorable boating conditions are forecast into early next week, as high pressure dominates the local pattern. Light offshore flow backs S/SE near the coast each day with the development of the sea breeze, but remains around 10 kts or less. Below normal coverage of showers and storms is forecast, though any storms will be capable of strong wind gusts to near 45 kts, in addition to lightning strikes, as they push offshore. Seas 1-3 ft.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 740 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Lingering SHRA/TSRA will affect coastal terminals TIX, VRB, FPR to start. Outflow pushing south should cross MCO btwn 00Z-02Z with a temporary increase in north wind. There is a small chance spotty SHRA/TSRA may redevelop assocd with the outflow boundary through 03Z. Otherwise, light WSW flow will resume at all terminals aft 03Z. On Thu, west northwest flow will start the day at 5-10 knots, not as strong as today so the Atlc sea breeze should develop a little sooner. Rain/storm coverage look scattered focusing again on the east coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 10 30 MCO 77 95 77 95 / 20 40 20 40 MLB 78 92 77 91 / 30 30 10 20 VRB 75 92 75 92 / 20 30 10 20 LEE 77 94 77 94 / 20 40 20 40 SFB 77 94 77 94 / 20 40 20 30 ORL 77 94 78 94 / 20 40 20 40 FPR 76 92 75 91 / 20 30 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.