textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Scattered gusty showers and isolated storms are forecast this weekend as a strong cold front passes central Florida, stalling across south Florida late this weekend.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect across much of east central Florida Saturday as winds increase to 20-30 mph with frequent gusts of 35-40 mph. Locally higher winds and gusts along the coast. - Hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions are forecast to develop this weekend as a result of increasing winds and seas due to the front. Entering the surf is not advised this weekend!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Today-Tonight... A surface ridge axis remains draped across east central Florida this afternoon. Light and variable winds are turning onshore as the sea breezes continue to gradually move inland. Mostly dry conditions are observed with only isolated shower development near Lake Okeechobee. Otherwise, a low chance (~20%) for showers exists across the interior late this afternoon and evening as the sea breezes collide, but lightning not expected. Conditions remain generally favorable for patchy fog development along the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee late tonight into early Saturday morning, but HREF probabilities remain low (~20-30%) at this time. Overnight low temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s.

Saturday-Sunday... A cold front moves into central Florida Saturday, slowing near Lake Okeechobee before stalling across south Florida on Sunday. The local pressure gradient tightens behind the front as high pressure quickly slides eastward across the midwest and towards the mid Atlantic seaboard. Weather remains mostly quiet to start Saturday morning before windy and gusty conditions rapidly build into the afternoon behind the front. A Wind Advisory has been issued starting at 11AM from Brevard and Osceola northward for north- northeast winds increasing to 20-30 mph and frequent gusts 35-40 mph, especially along the coast. The Wind Advisory then expands to include the Treasure Coast counties at 2PM as windy and gusty conditions spread southward into the evening. Beach conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate Saturday afternoon and into Sunday, becoming hazardous to dangerous. Large breaking waves and rough surf will become present in the surf zone with a high risk of risk of life-threatening rip currents. A High Surf Advisory will take effect along the Volusia and Brevard Coast at 2PM, expanding to include the Treasure Coast at 8PM. Minor to Moderate beach erosion will be possible at times of high tide. Winds will be slow to diminish as flow shifts more directly onshore into Sunday with breezy east winds 15-20 mph, gusting 30-35 mph. Locally higher winds and gusts are forecast along the coast on Sunday, and cannot rule an extension of the Wind Advisory into the day period Sunday for coastal locations east of I-95.

Saturday morning remains mostly dry with only a low chance (~10%) for light showers across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Scattered showers (20-40%) then build across east central Florida, mostly after 2PM. As the front stalls, moisture will linger south of the Cape, supporting continued rounds of onshore moving showers Saturday night (40-60%) and Sunday (30-50%). Limited instability will keep lightning chances low (20-30%) with the best chance along the Treasure Coast. Regardless of storm development, gusty showers will be capable of wind gusts up to 50 mph. Widespread rain accumulations are forecast to remain less than one inch providing little relief from the current drought. However, global ensembles suggest greatest QPF along the immediate Treasure Coast where there is a 20% chance for localized accumulations to exceed one inch.

High temperatures continue above normal for much of east central Florida on Saturday, spreading the 80s. Cloud cover and cooler air will then bring temperatures below normal Sunday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Morning lows hold relatively steady in the low to mid 60s.

Monday-Thursday (previous)...The surface high situated across the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US this weekend will move offshore across the western Atlantic into next week, with the ridge axis remaining well north of the Florida peninsula. The stalled frontal boundary is anticipated to gradually diminish, though plentiful moisture will remain in place across the Florida peninsula through the extended period as onshore winds continue to advect moisture towards the area. East-southeast winds when combined with the lingering moisture will produce low to medium rain chances (20-50%) across east central Florida on Monday and low rain chances (20-30%) from Tuesday onward. The highest rain chances occur primarily during the afternoon hours when the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, supporting shower development primarily across the interior portions of east central Florida. Activity will likely diminish into the evening hours each day.

Afternoon temperatures will gradually warm through the extended period as the area remains under an area of high pressure, with values eventually reaching above normal values by the middle of next week. Overnight temperatures will remain relatively unchanged.

MARINE

Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through early Saturday morning before winds and seas rapidly deteriorate behind a cold front. North- northeast Gale-Force winds begin to spread the Volusia waters late Saturday morning, further spreading southward through the Treasure Coast waters into the afternoon and evening. Gale-Force gusts continue across the local waters overnight Saturday as winds shift east, with wind speeds slow to diminish through the day Sunday. A Gale Warning goes into effect for the Volusia waters at 11AM Saturday, expanding to the Brevard Waters at 2PM, and Treasure Coast waters at 8PM. Gradually improving conditions will allow the warning to drop across the Volusia and Treasure Coast waters at 8AM Sunday, expiring across the Treasure Coast waters at 11AM. Seas rapidly build up to 12 ft nearshore, increasing up to 15 ft in the Gulf Stream in response to strong winds. As Gale Warnings expire, Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed as seas 10-14 ft slowly subside Sunday, becoming 6-10 ft on Monday. Poor to hazardous conditions persist into mid next week as onshore winds continue 15- 22 kts and 6-7 ft seas linger in the Gulf Stream. Scattered showers increase across the waters Saturday afternoon with greatest coverage then south of the Cape Saturday night into Sunday. Another round of scattered showers is forecast areawide Monday before drying into mid next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will largely persist through tonight into tomorrow morning. A few showers may develop with the sea breeze collision across the interior, just west of KMCO toward sunset. However, rain chances remain quite low (10-20%), so will keep any mention out of the inland TAFs for now. Patchy fog may also develop late tonight through early Saturday morning, producing brief IFR/MVFR conditions between 08-13Z, but not much guidance support at this time, so will also not include in the TAFs with this issuance.

Passing front into Saturday will lead to very windy and gusty conditions developing behind this boundary into the afternoon, with MVFR cigs building in behind the front as well. These conditions will reach KDAB first (near to after 15Z), with N/NE winds increasing to 20-25 knots and gusts increasing to 30-35 knots. These stronger winds and lower cigs will expand southward across the area then through Saturday afternoon (near to after 18Z) and linger into at least the evening. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and a few storms will also be possible behind the front into Saturday afternoon and evening, with greatest rain chances along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 63 77 62 74 / 10 30 30 20 MCO 66 84 65 75 / 20 30 30 30 MLB 65 81 66 75 / 10 40 60 40 VRB 63 82 67 76 / 10 30 60 50 LEE 63 80 61 76 / 10 10 20 10 SFB 64 81 63 75 / 10 20 30 20 ORL 66 82 64 75 / 20 30 30 20 FPR 62 83 65 76 / 10 30 60 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-144-247-547.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141- 347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ141-347-447-647-747.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ154- 159-164.

High Surf Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ154-159-164.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ254- 259-264.

AM...Gale Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550- 570.

Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ552- 572.

Gale Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555- 575.