textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Isolated showers are possible through at least Monday as a weak front stalls over the area; for many locations, mostly dry and warm conditions will persist through mid week

- A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, ushering in cooler than normal temperatures

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Now-Tonight...Light winds are veering north-northwest this afternoon as low-level moisture gradually increases, evidenced by satellite and recent observations. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate the development of an east coast breeze late this afternoon, pushing inland through the evening. This feature, along with an approaching front and increased moisture focused below 700mb, could be enough to spark isolated showers. Light QPF is anticipated, though some CAMs put down a quick 0.25" from Titusville to Melbourne through midnight. Probabilities of these locally higher amounts occurring are around 10-25%. For many locations, dry weather will prevail into tonight as the front stalls over central Florida. The chance for light showers or sprinkles continues into early Monday morning as temperatures settle into the 60s. Some lower clouds are forecast to build overhead tonight, and patchy fog cannot be ruled out over far interior locations (namely Lake/Osceola counties) through sunrise.

Monday-Tuesday...A stout dry 700-500mb layer will persist through Tuesday with modest moisture lingering above and below these levels. Northwest flow aloft quickly backs to the west-southwest Monday night into Tuesday as a 500mb ridge axis moves overhead. At the surface, a stationary front is forecast to linger over the southern half of the area, until lifting north as a warm front Tuesday into early Wednesday. Low confidence exists in sprinkles/showers occurring beyond Monday evening, though it would not be a surprise to see a few onshore-moving showers brush the coast through Tuesday morning. Afternoon highs Monday will remain above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s, warming a bit on Tuesday to the low and middle 80s areawide. Morning lows are forecast to range from the low/mid 60s north to the mid/upper 60s along the Treasure Coast.

Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Large scale trough aloft will shift eastward from the central to eastern U.S., which will weaken the mid level ridge across the region and lead to H5 height falls Wednesday into Thursday. At the same time, a stronger cold front is forecast to move through the area. Low rain chances (15-25%) with a slight chance for thunderstorms remains in the forecast, well south and east of Orlando Wednesday-Thursday, as the front approaches and moves through. Drier air will filter in behind the front, ending rain chances by Thursday night. High pressure building in will quickly lead to a breezy onshore flow into the weekend, which will gradually increase moisture and should also lead to an increase in onshore moving showers.

The short-lived warming trend continues on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 80s ahead of the approaching front. As the cold front crosses the area, highs on Thanksgiving are forecast to fall to the low to mid 70s near to north of Orlando, and in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees south. North-northeast winds will continue to allow max temps to drop into Friday, ranging from the upper 60s across Volusia County and low to mid 70s farther south and inland. Lows will fall into the 50s and low 60s Thursday night and Friday night, with even colder temps in the mid to upper 40s northwest of I-4 early Friday morning. The developing onshore breeze into next weekend will lead to a gradual rise in temps, with highs still in the 70s and overnight lows back into the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Winds around 10 kt or less turn northeast into Monday, increasing Monday evening and night to 10-15 kt from the east-southeast. A stalled front and sufficient moisture in place will provide the opportunity for isolated showers through at least Tuesday morning. Wave heights generally remain 2-3 ft, though offshore seas briefly build to 4 ft Monday night into Tuesday morning. The remnant front lifts north of the waters mid week as a warm front with winds generally out of the south-southeast.

A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, building winds and seas from north to south. Hazardous boating conditions are anticipated from this point forward and continuing through at least Saturday. Seas (as of now) look to reach 5 to 8 ft on late Thursday into Friday, continuing into Saturday around 5 to 7 ft. Northerly winds 15-20 kt veer northeast 20-25 kt Friday, turning easterly on Saturday.

Isolated showers are possible over the waters (especially the Gulf Stream) with a low chance of a lightning storm south of Cape Canaveral Wednesday through early Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1233 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Lingering MVFR CIGs at LEE should finish clearing by around 18Z, with VFR conditions then prevailing through the afternoon. The HRRR continues to show a few isolated showers generally north of MLB. However, any showers, should they develop, should remain very isolated. Therefore, have not included VCSH for the 18Z update. Winds under 10 kts today, becoming onshore along the coast this afternoon as a sea breeze develops.

Light and variable winds return overnight tonight. FG and low stratus will once again be possible. The highest confidence in reductions is for interior sites (MCO/SFB/ISM/LEE). However, models are struggling to narrow down timing and severity. Thus, have maintained MVFR mentions there, though IFR will be possible. Any FG and stratus will then clear through the morning hours, with light onshore flow Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 79 64 81 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 65 82 64 84 / 20 0 0 0 MLB 66 80 66 81 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 65 81 65 82 / 20 20 10 10 LEE 63 81 62 83 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 64 81 64 84 / 20 10 0 0 ORL 65 81 64 83 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 64 81 65 82 / 20 20 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.