textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening, mainly from Vero Beach northward and as far inland as Orlando. Some storms may be strong.

- Fire Sensitive weather conditions are forecast Today as Min RH values decrease to 35-40 percent across the interior this afternoon.

- Chance for showers and storms will continue each afternoon and evening this weekend through Thursday. Some storms may be strong to severe, especially Sunday and Monday.

- Highs remain above normal through Monday with peak heat indices forecast to reach the mid 90s to around 100F (locally). Temperatures become more seasonable behind the front on Tuesday before slowly increasing once again into mid/late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure axis will remain across the Florida peninsula as it slowly shifts eastward. A weak frontal boundary across the north-central Florida peninsula will begin to lift northward into northern Florida through the day. Locally, ample moisture will remain in place as south to southwest flow dominates, with PW values ranging from 1.4-1.8". This will support a low to medium (20-50%) chance of rain this afternoon. The highest rain chances will be along the coast from Vero Beach northward and as far inland as the Orlando Metro. CAM guidance shows showers and lightning storms will form along the east coast sea breeze in the afternoon as it pushes inland, with a collision with the west coast sea breeze across the interior (generally east of Orlando) late in the afternoon/early evening. The environment will support lightning storms this afternoon, and a few storms may be strong, especially along the coast. Forecast soundings shows ample instability along the coast(MUCAPE 1300 J/kg), a negative lifted index, sufficient shear (30-50 KT at SFC-8km), and plenty of downdraft potential (DCAPE 1000+ J/kg). Because of this, storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy downpours. Temperatures aloft will be much like they were on Friday (around -8C at 500 mb), so hail will be limited, but small hail will be possible.

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast for today due to min RH values dropping to 35% in some locations this afternoon, especially across the interior south of Orlando. Wind speeds will be around 10 KT, which will below criteria for a Red Flag Warning.

Guidance is indicating there is potential for low stratus and maybe patchy fog into early this morning, mainly along and north of the I- 4 corridor. Any fog that does manage to form will dissipate by 9 AM. Hot and humid conditions continue today with temperatures remaining on a warming trend. Afternoon highs will soar into the low to mid 90s. These temperatures combined with humidity, will produce peak heat indices around 100 degrees. Overnight lows will be warm, providing little relief, with lows in the 70s. These hot and humid conditions will produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk.

Sunday-Monday... Upper level high pressure over the Carribean/western Atlantic will slowly shift southward into early week, with the axis remaining across south Florida. Several rounds of shortwave energy will traverse across north-central Florida each day. A weak front will approach the area on Monday, pushing through east central Florida Monday night. Locally, southwest winds on Sunday will veer westerly on Monday, and northwest on Monday night ahead of the front. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each day, with the sea breeze moving farther inland on Sunday and being pinned closer to the coast on Monday in the stronger offshore flow. Ample moisture will remain present across the local area (PW values 1.6-1.9"), which will support a medium to high (30-70 percent) chance of rain both days. Highest rain and storm chances will be across the interior on Sunday, and generally from Orlando eastward on Monday.

Some storms may be strong to marginally severe. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put all of the Florida peninsula into a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on Sunday, and will likely have at least portions of east central FL in a Marginal Risk on Monday. The storm environment supports this with forecast soundings showing ample instability (MUCAPE 1200-2000 J/kg), sufficient shear (SFC-6km of 30- 40 KT), and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). The primary storm threat will be strong to damaging wind gusts, with frequent lightning, and small hail being a secondary threat both days.

Hot and humid conditions will continue into early next week, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices of 95- 100 degrees each day. Overnight lows will be warm, providing little relief, with lows in the 70s. These hot and humid conditions will produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Fire sensitive conditions will continue on Sunday as min RH values drop to 40-45 percent.

Tuesday-Friday... A series of upper level troughs across the Great Lakes region will shift eastward and out into the Atlantic through late week. The aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast to push into South Florida by early Tuesday morning, stalling across South Florida before slowly lifting back northward through midweek. Surface high pressure will then build over the local area from the Deep South behind the front. Locally, winds behind the front will quickly veer onshore as high pressure builds offshore the Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday and remain through late week. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to 10-15 mph. Lingering moisture and instability north of the front on Tuesday will continue shower and storm chances. There is a medium to high ( 30-60 percent) chance of rain, especially in the afternoon. The highest potential for showers and storms on Tuesday will be from Cape Canaveral to Lake Okeechobee eastward. Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue Wednesday and Thursday, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Friday. Temperatures return closer to seasonal values on Tuesday (in the 80s) behind the front, but then steadily increase into the low 90s by mid-late week.

MARINE

Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Today-Wednesday... Generally favorable boating conditions into early next week. A weak front across north-central Florida will lift northward into north Florida through the day today. Another weak front will then approach on Monday, passing through the local waters on Monday night and shifting into South Florida on Tuesday. The front will then slowly shift back northward through mid week. S/SE winds at 10-15 KT through Sunday will veer offshore in the evening/overnight (and may increase briefly late each day/evening to 15-20 KT promoting temporary poor boating). SW winds ahead of the boundary at 10-15 KT will become N/NW post-frontal on Mon overnight/early Tuesday, then shift NE/E during the day Tuesday increasing to 15-20 KT. Seas 2-4ft will increase to 3-5ft on Tuesday and up to 7ft in the offshore waters by Tuesday night before subsiding to 4-6ft on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms forecast each afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong to marginally severe. Primary storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes and strong to damaging wind gusts.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 653 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

A mix of BR and lower CIGs this morning is leading to MVFR conds at times (LIFR at LEE). By 13z-14z, conditions will improve, giving way to SCT/BKN CIGs this afternoon. Westerly winds 8-14 kt with occasional gusts at the coast will turn onshore after 18z as the ECSB forms. Along the breeze, iso/sct TSRA are forecast thru at least 00z. Activity will drift offshore as it dissipates by 01-03z Sun. Occasional CIG/VIS reductions at coastal sites, esp. MLB northward, are possible due to TSRA.

Calmer winds after 03z Sun. may allow for more BR or low clouds to develop, but confidence is too low at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 73 90 73 / 40 20 50 30 MCO 95 75 93 75 / 30 10 60 30 MLB 93 78 90 78 / 30 20 50 30 VRB 95 76 92 77 / 20 20 30 30 LEE 92 73 92 74 / 10 10 30 10 SFB 95 73 93 73 / 30 10 50 30 ORL 94 75 93 75 / 30 10 50 30 FPR 95 76 92 77 / 20 20 30 30

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 73 90 73 / 40 20 50 30 MCO 95 75 93 75 / 30 10 60 30 MLB 93 78 90 78 / 30 20 50 30 VRB 95 76 92 77 / 20 20 30 30 LEE 92 73 92 74 / 10 10 30 10 SFB 95 73 93 73 / 30 10 50 30 ORL 94 75 93 75 / 30 10 50 30 FPR 95 76 92 77 / 20 20 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.