textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- A nearly stationary disturbance aloft will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area the next few days.

- A few strong storms will be possible each afternoon and early evening, with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches.

- A cool front is forecast to cross the area Thursday with lower rain chances and slight cooling late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Today...Upper level low centered over the western FL peninsula will maintain deep moisture over the area with PWATs climbing 2.0-2.1". Scattered showers and isolated storms over the Atlc this morning will cross portions of the coast in light onshore flow. The Atlc sea breeze will develop and push inland during the day. So higher pops initially along the coast will transition inland with the sea breeze. Rain chances look highest along the coast south of the Cape and over the interior (50-70%) with the lowest rain chances along the Volusia coast (20-40%). Cool temperatures aloft (-8C at 500 mb) will support potential for a few strong storms containing frequent lightning strikes, gusty wind up to 50 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches. Focus for showers and storms will shift back over the Atlc waters tonight with some activity brushing the coast. Seasonably warm temperatures with maxes in the upper 80s/near 90 with peak heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

Mon-Sat...The upper level low off the west coast of Florida to start off the week will slowly fill and lift northeast becoming absorbed by a northern stream trough by mid week. This northern stream trough is forecast to cut-off near the mid Atlc states Thu- Fri which should force a frontal boundary south across the area Thu and south of the area Fri. Locally, deep moisture will remain through mid week, supporting high rain and storm chances, with a high (60-70 percent) chance of rain through Wed. Slightly drier air will filter across the local area into late week behind a frontal passage resulting in rain chances becoming near normal, (30-50 percent), Friday into the weekend. Main storm hazards will continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds around 45 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Seasonable temperatures are forecast with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through mid week then lowering a tad into the mid and upper 80s behind the front Fri-Sat.

MARINE

Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast through mid week. Northeast to East winds will prevail during the day with speeds below 15 KT. Winds becoming light SE-S at night. Seas 2-3ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each day and overnight. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and heavy downpours. Seas locally higher in the vicinity of storms. On Thu, an increase in N/NE winds 15-20 knots across the northern waters behind a cool front is forecast to build seas 4-6 FT.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 659 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Isolated coastal showers/storms will continue to be possible this morning, mainly near to north of KMLB. Otherwise, greatest potential for convection leading to tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will be into the afternoon, as scattered to numerous showers and storms develop with the inland moving sea breeze. No significant changes made to 12Z TAFs with VCTS starting 16-17Z and 3-hour PROB30/TEMPO groups for MVFR TSRA cig/vis at most sites (except KDAB) between 16-22Z. A few stronger storms will be possible. Convection then diminishes and mostly shifts W/SW of the area by 00Z, but could see some lingering areas of light rain and a storm or two into the evening. Winds will become E/NE this afternoon around 5-9 knots and then become light and variable into tonight. It will be mostly dry overnight, with just a slight (20%) chance for showers or a storm or two brushing northward along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 87 74 88 74 / 20 10 50 10 MCO 90 73 90 73 / 50 10 70 10 MLB 87 74 87 75 / 60 20 60 20 VRB 88 73 87 73 / 60 20 70 20 LEE 89 73 90 74 / 50 10 60 10 SFB 88 73 89 74 / 40 10 70 10 ORL 89 74 90 74 / 50 10 60 10 FPR 88 72 88 72 / 60 20 70 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.