textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all east central Florida counties between 10 AM and 8 PM for peak heat indices of 108F to 112F. Practice heat safety!

- Heat concerns persist across east central Florida over the next couple of days thanks to above-normal afternoon highs and peak heat indices nearing or reaching Heat Advisory criteria.

- Below-normal rain and storm chances are forecast through today due to drier air aloft, with increasing moisture Monday onward leading to a return of near-normal rain and storm chances across east central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging persists across the Florida peninsula today, with the Atlantic high and its ridge axis remaining draped across central Florida. This will lead to continued light and variable winds through this morning, becoming more southerly to southeasterly as the east coast sea breeze develops this afternoon and pushes inland. While drier air aloft from Saharan dust drifting across the area will help limit rain and storm chances across east central Florida today, isolated showers and storms near the greater Orlando area cannot be ruled out. Sufficient daytime heating paired with the dry air aloft will lead to a conditionally favorable environment for storm development and any storms that do manage to develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and brief, heavy downpours. Weak steering flow will lead to slow-moving and even erratic storm motions, so some quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3" cannot be ruled out in some spots though confidence in this remains low. Activity will diminish by this evening, with dry conditions forecast through the overnight hours areawide.

Heat remains a concern across east central Florida today, with afternoon temperatures forecast to climb into the mid to upper 90s areawide. Some locations may even near their record highs. These hot temperatures will combine with humid conditions to produce peak heat indices of 108F to 112F, with a Heat Advisory once again in effect for all east central Florida counties between 10 AM and 8 PM. Prolonged heat increases the risk of developing heat- related illness for everyone, so be sure to practice heat safety. If spending extended periods of time outdoors, stay well hydrated, wear lightweight, lightly colored clothing, and take frequent breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building. Never leave children or pets alone in cars and be sure to look before you lock. Limited relief is anticipated through the overnight hours, with lows falling only into the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Saturday...Ridging aloft weakens through this week as a trough across the eastern US gradually strengthens and digs southward. At the surface, the Atlantic high shifts southward as an area of low pressure moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast, dragging a cold front southward across the eastern US. The front is anticipated to stall and eventually wash out near to just north of Florida, with a plume of moisture along and ahead of the boundary pushing southward towards the Florida peninsula. PWATs increase to 2" and greater across northern portions of east central Florida on Monday, expanding areawide from Tuesday onward. This increasing moisture will support a return to a diurnal pattern with near-normal rain chances across east central Florida, with PoPs generally ranging between 20-50% on Monday and 40-70% from Tuesday onward. Storms will be possible with this activity with lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours the primary storm hazards. Activity will generally push offshore thanks to westerly winds aloft, with conditions remaining mostly dry through the overnight hours across the peninsula.

The heat is anticipated to persist into Monday across east central Florida, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Tuesday onward, afternoon highs begin a slow trend downward, but values are still forecast to remain slightly above normal for this time of year. Peak heat indices exceeding 100F will persist each day though this upcoming week, with some guidance suggesting nearing and/or exceeding Heat Advisory criteria through mid-week. This will continue to closely be monitored and the proper heat products will be issued as needed. Residents and visitors are encouraged to continue practicing heat safety if spending extended periods of time outdoors.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Broad high pressure across the local Atlantic waters will gradually shift southward through early week, with generally favorable boating conditions forecast through the period. West to southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are anticipated locally, becoming more southerly each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Seas of 1 to 2 feet prevail through the period, building to 3 feet across the offshore waters at times.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the local waters from Monday onward, with activity generally moving offshore from the peninsula thanks to westerly flow aloft. Lightning strikes, gusty winds of 30 knots and greater, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas will be possible within the vicinity of any storms that manage to develop.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Continued mainly VFR through the TAF period. Dry conditions and light/VRB winds thru the morning hours. Lower than normal TSRA/SHRA chances continue. The ECSB is forecast to develop after 16-17Z, reaching KMCO/inland terminals late aftn/early eve, and shift winds ESE-SE 7-10 kts behind the boundary. ISOLD TSRA/SHRA are forecast to develop on the boundary as it moves inland. "Vicinity" TS wording in place north of the Treasure Coast, but most TAF sites likely to not realize even this. A sea breeze collision is forecast near to west of MCO again Sun evening, with quiet conditions resuming overnight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites today:

Site Aug 16 Daytona 97 (2023) Leesburg 96 (2011) Sanford 97 (2023) Orlando 101 (1918) Melbourne 96 (2022) Vero Beach 96 (2022) Fort Pierce 97 (1948)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 94 77 95 78 / 10 10 40 10 MCO 97 78 97 79 / 20 20 20 10 MLB 94 78 96 78 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 93 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 96 78 95 79 / 10 10 40 10 SFB 96 78 96 79 / 20 10 40 10 ORL 97 79 96 80 / 20 20 30 10 FPR 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.