textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, with activity pushing back towards the coast and offshore. This diurnal coverage will continue through early to mid-week.

- Some storms and may be strong to severe through this evening and again on Tuesday. Primary storm hazards are frequent lightning, strong to damaging winds, hail, and torrential downpours. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Temperatures become more seasonable into Tuesday and Wednesday before slowly increasing once again into late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Currently-Tonight...Forecast for the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening remains on track. Scattered showers and storms will develop with the inland moving sea breeze boundaries, with strong to isolated severe storms possible, especially as boundary collisions occur near to southeast of I-4 corridor. This activity will shift east back toward the coast and offshore through the late afternoon and into this evening. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather continues across much of east central Florida for this afternoon and evening. Main threats from storms will continue to be strong to locally damaging winds up to 40-60 mph, coin-sized hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. However, still can't rule out a brief tornado as storms interact with the east coast sea breeze.

Convection diminishes into this evening, with some lingering rain chances (20-30%), and a slight chance for storms north of Orlando overnight as a weak front pushes slowly southward toward central FL. Remaining warm and humid tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s for much of the area.

Tuesday...Weak front moves gradually southward across the area tomorrow, with a moist (PW 1.9-2.0") and unstable airmass in place. Showers and storms will have an earlier start initially along the front across northern portions of east central Florida into the morning/early afternoon, with coverage increasing farther south and inland through the remainder of the day. High rain chances (~70%) forecast across the area, with showers and storms becoming scattered to numerous. CAPE will be around 1000-2000 J/kg, with 0-6km bulk shear values increasing to 35-45 knots, which should again help lead to strong to isolated severe storm development. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather has been added to the Day 2 outlook. The main storm threats will again be frequent lightning strikes, strong to locally damaging wind gusts up to 40-60 mph, coin- sized hail and locally heavy rainfall, with a very low threat for a brief tornado. The increase in cloud cover and higher convective coverage will keep max temps closer to normal tomorrow, in the mid to upper 80s.

Front will linger across central Florida into Tuesday night as it continues a slow southward movement. Low level flow becomes onshore, which will keep a chance for onshore moving showers and a few storms, primarily along the coast overnight. Lows tomorrow night will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Weak front will linger across the area Wednesday and either fade or gradually shift south as a passing S/W develops an area of low pressure well offshore. This low will then shift northeast, with high pressure building down through the Southeast U.S. and offshore late week into the weekend. Winds become a little more variable into Wednesday and then become northwest Thursday, before eventually veering back onshore into late week through the weekend. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to 10-15 mph. Lingering moisture and instability will be slow to dissipate, keeping higher rain chances (up to 60-70%) through Wednesday, with shortwave energy aloft aiding convection. Rain chances then decrease through late week to 20% southeast of I-4 on Thursday, with mostly dry conditions forecast Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-30 percent) return Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures remain closer to seasonal values on Wednesday (in the mid to upper 80s), but then steadily increase into the low 90s across the interior into the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Tonight-Tuesday...Scattered offshore moving storms, some which may be strong to severe, will be the primary hazard to boaters through this afternoon and evening. Additional isolated to scattered shower and storm development is forecast overnight, mainly across the offshore waters and north of the Cape as a weak front nears the area late tonight. Outside of storms, winds and seas should remain generally favorable tonight, with south-southeast winds this evening becoming south-southwest overnight, and then west-northwest late, near to north of the Cape. Wind speeds will remain less than 15 knots through tonight, with seas around 2 feet.

Boating conditions will then deteriorate into Tuesday as front settles slowly southward across the waters, and winds quickly veer onshore. Winds will become east-northeast and increase up to 15-20 knots over the offshore waters, north of Sebastian Inlet into the afternoon. This will build seas up to 4-6 feet, potentially up to 7 feet briefly over the offshore waters of Volusia County through Tuesday night. High coverage of showers and storms forecast across the waters with the front moving in, and some strong to isolated severe storms will still be possible.

Wednesday-Saturday...Front gradually fades with scattered to numerous showers and storms lingering through Wednesday, before rain chances decrease late in the week into the weekend. Low pressure develops well offshore and lifts northeast, with onshore winds Wednesday becoming north-northwest into Thursday. Winds then become onshore through late week into Saturday as high pressure builds down into the Southeast United States and offshore. Wind speeds remain below 15 knots and seas gradually decrease to 3-5 feet Wednesday, 2-4 feet Thursday and 2-3 feet Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 721 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Showers and a few storms, mainly from MLB southward are forecast to linger over the next hour or two as they drift offshore from the Treasure Coast. Then, drier conditions prevail through the overnight hours, with variable winds 6 kts or less.

CAMs suggest an active afternoon on Tuesday, with widespread coverage of showers and storms after 18Z. However, run to run consistency leaves a bit to be desired. So, will need to monitor with upcoming TAF packages. For now, have VCTS developing from north to south from 17-19Z. TEMPOs will likely be needed at times for VIS/CIG reductions in any stronger storms. Outside of convection, E/ENE winds increase to 8-12 kts Tuesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 83 70 84 / 30 70 50 60 MCO 74 86 70 86 / 20 70 40 60 MLB 75 84 73 84 / 50 70 50 60 VRB 74 86 73 85 / 50 70 60 70 LEE 73 85 69 86 / 20 70 40 60 SFB 73 86 69 87 / 20 70 40 70 ORL 74 86 70 86 / 20 70 40 60 FPR 74 86 73 85 / 50 70 60 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.