textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Above normal temperatures and near record highs possible through Wednesday, especially across the interior

- Low rain chances into mid-week, before a cold front brings scattered showers and storms late week

- Patchy to areas of dense fog possible each morning through at least Tuesday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Rest of Today-Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge axis will continue to extend towards the Florida peninsula as the high itself weakens in response to a deepening low pressure system moving from the Central US towards the northeast. Aloft, ridging over the Gulf amplifies and shifts eastward in response to a weakening mid-upper level low moving across the southern US and Mexico. Locally the pressure gradient becomes very weak today and Tuesday, resulting in light background flow, allowing the sea breezes to push inland relatively unimpeded and collide very near the center of the peninsula later in the evening. For ECFL, light variable winds shift onshore 5-10 mph (a bit weaker than previous days without the added background flow), up to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph along the coast behind the sea breeze. Southerly flow returns Wednesday as the pressure gradient begins to tighten between the Atlantic high and the approaching low to the northwest, which could bring gusty to breezy conditions behind the sea breeze back inland in the afternoon. While onshore flow behind the sea breeze will keep temperatures along the coastal corridor more moderate (though still well above normal) in the L-M80s, the interior will bake into the U80s to near 90, 10-13 degrees above normal and flirting with records at a few locations. See climate section for more details.

Gradual drying in the mid-levels have knocked rain chances down to 20% or less, highest across the southern counties this afternoon/evening, then shifting the northern counties Tuesday afternoon/evening (though even 20% may prove to be very generous tomorrow). Although heights are decreasing as the upper level ridge approaches, T500 remains a cool M10-M12C, and the dry air aloft could also enhance downdrafts. Therefore, any lightning storms that manage to form could become strong producing small hail, gusty winds to around 45 mph, locally heavy downpours, and cloud to ground lightning. Otherwise mostly dry conditions, especially Wednesday.

Conditions tonight into Tuesday morning will once again be marginally favorable for development of patchy to areas of dense fog. While model agreement where/if dense fog will develop is not spectacular, there is a notable increase in chances across the southern coastal counties compared to previous nights. Commuters should use caution on the roads and be prepared for rapid changes in visibility. Overnight lows in the 60s.

Thursday-Monday (Modified Previous Discussion)...High pressure over the Atlantic nudges farther eastward, as a low pressure system moving over northern New England drags a cold front through the Southeast. The surface cold front is still forecast to reach north Florida by Thursday evening, then pass southward through the peninsula into early Friday morning. Increased moisture and instability along the front will allow for scattered showers and storms to overspread the local area Thursday, with PoPs 50-70%. A series of upper level shortwaves will maintain a chance of showers into the weekend, despite increasing surface ridging. Brief northerly winds behind the front will once again veer onshore through the period. PoPs 20-40% Friday and Saturday become 40-60% Sunday and Monday, as southerly flow advects additional moisture into the area. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Thursday moderate into the lower to mid-80s for the weekend behind the front. A brief dip into the upper 50s for the normally cooler locations Friday night. Otherwise, lows remain in the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Today-Wednesday...Generally favorable boating conditions. High pressure extending from the subtropical Atlantic to the Florida peninsula gradually weakens in response to a low pressure system developing over the CONUS. Southerly winds 5-15 kts shift from more southeasterly in the afternoon and evening to more southwesterly in the early morning with the sea breeze circulation. Seas 2-4 ft.

Thursday-Friday...Boating conditions deteriorate as a cold front pushes through Florida and the local Atlantic waters late Thursday into Friday. Chances for showers and lightning storms increase Thursday ahead of the front, then winds freshen Thursday night into Friday behind the front. Confidence in just how poor boating conditions become remains low as models continue to disagree on timing and wind speeds. However, northerly winds at least 15-20 kts appear likely north of the Cape Thursday night, and could push towards 25 kts well north near and offshore of Daytona Beach. Based on this forecast, seas build up to 8 ft in the Gulf Stream, and 4-6 ft closer to shore Friday. Conditions look to improve going into the weekend, but will keep chances for scattered storms and a few showers.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Though confidence is low, a narrow ribbon of greater moisture over the southern half of Florida is enough to keep VCSH/VCTS for MLB, VRB, FPR, and SUA this afternoon. Other concern is for patchy fog/stratus yet again tonight as winds become nearly calm over the terminals. Additional refinements will be required, but for now, added mention of BR/BCFG in MVFR/low VFR range at a few sites between 10-14Z. As of now, the probabilities for IFR are from 20-40% late tonight. Winds continue E/SE up to 15 KT, highest along the coast.

CLIMATE

Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate sites:

Mar 9 Mar 10 Mar 11 Monthly March DAB 87 2024 86 2023 89 1967 92 3/28/1994* LEE 88 2024 87 1974 88 2015 92 3/26/2023* SFB 89 2024 90 1974 88 1974 94 3/20/2003 MCO 90 2024 90 1918 91 1918 97 3/30/1907 MLB 89 2022 90 1964 89 1962 93 3/28/1994 VRB 90 2024 89 2022 88 1986 93 3/31/2020* FPR 90 2022 90 2022 90 1997 93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 85 65 86 / 10 10 0 0 MCO 67 88 67 89 / 10 20 0 0 MLB 66 83 67 83 / 10 10 0 0 VRB 65 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 65 89 67 88 / 0 20 0 0 SFB 66 89 66 88 / 10 20 0 0 ORL 68 89 67 89 / 10 20 0 0 FPR 64 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.