textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions today; a high risk of rip currents exists at area beaches, so entering the water is discouraged

- Isolated coastal showers are forecast through at least Tuesday, mainly from Cape Canaveral south to the Treasure Coast

- Rain chances increase areawide Wednesday into Thursday along a strong cold front, followed by sharply colder and drier air late in the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Today-Tonight...RAP analysis early this morning indicates a tight surface pressure gradient, which is helping to kick up north- northeasterly winds along the coast (gusting 20-25 mph at times). Broken mid-level clouds are in place along portions of the coast with the greatest coverage south of Melbourne. Temperatures this morning (as of 2 AM) are markedly cooler, ranging from the upper 40s north to the mid/upper 60s south. Northeast flow is forecast to decrease through the day as high pressure becomes elongated over the southeast U.S. Model soundings for today indicate that there will be an abundance of upper level clouds, accompanied by some measure of low level clouds as well. Sandwiched in between is a healthy layer of dry air, roughly between 800-500mb. Some breaks in the clouds are possible, but sunshine will be limited in many locations. Highs this afternoon will likely struggle to reach the 70-degree mark from Orlando/Titusville northward, ending up slightly warmer (low 70s) to the south. Tonight, similar temperatures are forecast, perhaps staying a degree or two warmer with northerly winds 5-10 mph.

Rain chances are limited to none for much of the area today, but we do introduce a 15-20% chance across the Treasure Coast by late afternoon and overnight. Profiles become saturated enough in the lowest 1-2 km to support sprinkles or light showers, particularly over the Treasure Coast waters. Some of this activity could brush the coast from time to time into early Tuesday.

Tuesday-Wednesday...For many locations, especially over interior ECFL, conditions will remain dry on Tuesday. The forecast maintains a low chance for showers along the coast, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward, where models show 1.2"+ PW will reside. Light onshore flow will continue Tuesday with daytime temperatures recovering a bit more, reaching the upper 60s to middle 70s. Attention turns to a mid level shortwave rounding the base of a deepening trough by midweek, as the features both progress toward the southeast U.S. At the surface, a residual front lifts north on Wednesday, preceding a series of cold fronts advancing toward FL. This boundary, along with additional forcing arriving from the north, will combine with 1.4-1.5" PW to raise rain chances to 25-40% Wednesday afternoon. The highest coverage of rain and timing remains a bit uncertain, but following the consensus of guidance, rain chances climb to 40-55% by early Thursday morning. Mostly cloudy conditions Wednesday are likely to keep temperatures a bit cooler (M/U 60s north, 70s south).

Thursday-Sunday...A strong cold front makes its way into the region Thursday, accompanied by breezy to gusty northwest winds (20-30 mph gusts). Northwest winds will help advect much drier air south across the FL Peninsula, helping to clear skies out Thursday afternoon and night. The combined northwest breeze, clear sky conditions, and cold continental airmass will send temperatures plummeting into the 30s for most by Friday morning. Wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s are forecast Friday morning as well, solidly reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria for 80% or more of ECFL. Portions of northern Lake and Volusia counties may also reach the upper 20s/low 30s (below freezing). In summary, the end of the week looks cold overall with Friday's highs ranging from the mid 50s north to the low 60s south. Saturday promises another cold start with temperatures in the 30s and 40s, but a lighter wind makes for less of a wind chill factor. Afternoon highs rebound into the 60s and perhaps the lows 70s across the far south.

High pressure that built over Florida and the southeastern U.S. Friday/early Saturday will break down again Saturday afternoon as another cold front brings reinforcing cold air Sunday into Monday. There are discrepancies in models at this range regarding timing and any chance of precip, but for now, this forecast calls for a dry frontal passage. Temperatures trend colder Sunday into early next week behind this front, perhaps flirting with wind chills near the 30-degree mark again Monday morning. On the whole, expect a cooler-than-normal pattern to persist through the extended range with limited opportunities for measurable rainfall.

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Elevated north-northeasterly winds will take time to subside through the day, leaving in place poor to hazardous boating conditions over the local Atlantic. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this morning for all legs of the nearshore and offshore waters, paring back to primarily the Gulf Stream waters by mid morning. Seas remain 5-7 ft there, declining to 3-5 ft nearshore, generally north of Sebastian Inlet. Small craft will likely need to exercise caution over the Gulf Stream through tonight. Isolated showers are forecast (20-30%), mainly south of Cape Canaveral.

Favorable boating conditions return Tuesday as NE winds decrease to 8-12 kt and seas reach 3-5 ft. Seas fall further to 2-4 ft Wednesday before offshore winds pick back up Wednesday afternoon and night (15- 20 kt). A strong cold front swings through Thursday, freshening northwest winds and building seas. Thus, poor to hazardous conditions quickly return Thursday morning to the offshore zones, expanding to the remainder of the local Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Seas reach a peak of at least 7-9 ft Thursday night/early Friday, though this could be a conservative forecast (some guidance brings wave heights up to 10+ ft offshore). Rain chances increase ahead of and along the approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday, and a lightning storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Stream.

High pressure builds over the waters Friday and winds respond by decreasing quickly, though seas may take a bit longer to decline Friday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 558 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. N/NW winds will become N/NE by mid-morning with speeds remaining around 10 KT. Winds then decrease to generally below 10 KT after 00Z on Tuesday. Isolated onshore moving showers are forecast from VRB-SUA this afternoon and into tonight. Have included VCSH starting at 18Z for those terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 66 54 68 53 / 10 10 10 20 MCO 69 55 71 58 / 10 10 10 20 MLB 70 59 73 58 / 10 20 20 30 VRB 72 59 75 59 / 20 20 20 30 LEE 67 50 69 53 / 0 10 10 20 SFB 68 53 70 55 / 10 10 10 20 ORL 68 54 71 57 / 10 10 10 20 FPR 73 59 75 59 / 20 20 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555- 570-572-575.