textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

- Near critical fire weather conditions again today as drier air moves in behind a reinforcing cold front

- Hazardous boating conditions persist across the local Atlantic today, lingering in the Gulf Stream tonight through Sunday

- A moderate risk of rip currents exists at area beaches today, followed by a high risk of life-threatening rip currents Sunday into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Today-Sunday...While it is chilly this morning, temperatures are running about 7 to 10 degrees above where we were at this time yesterday. A breezy west-southwest wind persists, particularly along the coast from Melbourne northward. The next cold front is moving into north Florida and expected to push across our area this morning through early afternoon. Surface winds will veer northerly behind the front with some occasional gusts to 20 mph (up to 25 mph at the coast). Drier air also moves in behind the front, leading to low humidity values, especially across the interior (west of I-95). Where dry air and slightly higher north winds interface, fire sensitivities are expected to develop from late morning into the afternoon.

A cool, breezy day is forecast along the Volusia and north Brevard coast, whereas temperatures will range from the upper 60s to low 70s across the rest of east central Florida. Efficient transport of colder and drier air will continue into tonight. Under a mostly clear sky, overnight lows are forecast to dip into the mid 30s/low 40s inland and the mid 40s/low 50s at the coast. Winds veer more onshore and decrease in speed, so wind chills will be less of a factor by early Sunday morning.

High pressure settles over the Florida Peninsula Sunday with plenty of sunshine anticipated. Despite a colder start to the day, temperatures warm into the mid 60s to low/mid 70s in the afternoon. Another cold night is forecast heading into Monday, though temps will largely stay in the 40s to low 50s areawide. The exception will be inland Volusia and northern Lake counties, where a few spots could briefly reach the upper 30s.

At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents exists today. On Sunday, a low pressure system 1000+ miles from ECFL (over the north Atlantic Ocean) will strengthen, generating a long-period swell. As this swell reaches our coast, the risk for life-threatening rip currents is forecast to increase to a High Risk on Sunday.

Monday-Friday...Dry conditions, warmer temperatures, and a continued (high) risk for life-threatening rip currents are the headlines for the upcoming week. Surface high pressure anchors itself somewhere between the peninsula and the Bahamas through at least Wednesday/Thursday, allowing winds to remain light through the period (turning onshore at the coast each afternoon). Above normal temperatures return to the area by Tuesday/Wednesday. Ensemble guidance suggests at least a medium chance (30-60%) of reaching the 80-degree mark Wednesday through Friday over interior locations. From Orlando southward to Lake Okeechobee, a number of spots are likely (70%+) to reach the low 80s mid to late week.

In the mid levels, a couple of disturbances will move overhead, embedded in northwesterly flow. One of these moves through Monday afternoon/early Tuesday, followed by a second disturbance Wednesday into early Thursday. No sensible impacts are anticipated from either. Later in the week, a cold front is forecast to begin moving in our direction. However, models are not in agreement about the overall surface pattern and upper air evolution. We'll keep an eye on it for now, but this front could bring our next chance of showers by next weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Hazardous marine conditions continue this morning and are forecast to linger through at least early afternoon across the local Atlantic. Northerly winds begin to slacken this evening and tonight, but seas will remain 6 to 8 feet over the Gulf Stream. A Small Craft Advisory for all marine legs pares back to just the Gulf Stream waters this afternoon, and this Advisory lasts through much of the day Sunday as well. An incoming long-period swell will be responsible for prolonging the duration of 7 foot seas.

Conditions begin to improve Monday into Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. Generally favorable conditions are then anticipated for the remainder of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1214 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR/SKC throughout. Winds turning NE at the coast, remaining NNW inland terminals this aftn. Few gusts to 20 kt. Light/calm winds late tonight; winds turn VRB to NE up to 10 kt on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

A breezy west wind will veer northerly as a cold front moves through this morning through midday. Lighter wind speeds today under 15 mph, highest along the coast, may gust 15 to 20 mph at times (20-25 mph at the coast). Drier air will spill southward through the afternoon, dropping humidity values over the interior. While winds may be slightly lighter, increasingly dry conditions will lead to sensitive or near critical fire weather conditions.

Fire sensitive conditions may persist Sunday, coincident with lower humidity over the interior, though northeast winds are likely to remain under 10 mph through the day. No rainfall is forecast through next week, and drought conditions are likely to worsen.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 41 65 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 43 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 45 67 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 47 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 39 68 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 41 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 43 69 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 45 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550- 552.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.