textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Rain and lightning storm chances remain high through at least Monday (70 to 80%). The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts from 50 to 55 mph.

- Localized flooding may result from repeated rounds of heavy rain and storms. There is a 5-10% chance of 2 to 4" amounts in less than 6 hours.

- Coverage of showers and storms will remain generally above normal this week, with the focus shifting toward the interior by midweek as the Atlantic sea breeze develops each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Rest of Today-Monday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Most of the shortwave the developed over Florida this morning has pushed offshore as it transits the sharp trough digging down the eastern US to the Gulf and Florida, but lingering upper level energy in the wake of this feature at the base of the trough is still streaming by and could help support deep convection. Ridging extending from over the Desert Southwest to the plains is expected to bifurcate the trough, leaving a cut-off mid-level disturbance over the Deep South while the rest of the trough over the Northeast US ejects towards the Canadian Maritimes. The associated surface low will elongate and lift into the eastern Great Lakes following the departing trough. The attendant cold front front will be left trailing the low, extending to the North Gulf Coast. Southwesterly flow in the low levels increases across Florida as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and high pressure over the Atlantic, which could produce some wind gusts to 25 mph out side of storms. Moisture is surging in the southwesterly flow, with PWATs ringing in at +2.2" on GOES imagery and the morning soundings. However, confidence in development of deep convection has reduced some this forecast package. The band of showers and storms extending across North Florida that was expected to drop southeast into our area is struggling, likely due to lackluster destabilization from the cloud cover. A line extending from South Florida to the Treasure Coast and nearby Atlantic waters is doing better as it gradually lifts north, but guidance screwiest the southwesterly flow will help user this activity offshore before it pushes much farther north than Vero or Melbourne. The most promising area for storm development appears to be over Southwest Florida, with this activity then pushing into our area. Reduced rain chances a bit in the forecast due to the uncertainty, but they still generally remain 50-70%. With the background winds increasing in the lowest 10 kft, storms may produce a few wind gusts of 50-55 mph. There is also a very small chance for a severe storm, with wind gusts around 60 mph.

A low chance of showers will persist through the overnight, then on Monday, this rinse-and-repeat pattern should offer yet another round of scattered-numerous showers and storms from late morning through the afternoon. Once again, a few gusty storms are anticipated due to somewhat enhanced winds aloft.

We will also be watching for occasional to frequent lightning strikes and locally torrential rainfall where repeated bands of storms occur. Storms should move progressively thanks to the enhanced southwesterly steering flow, especially across the northern portions of the area. Slower storm motions would be favored near Lake O to the Treasure Coast. Hi-res ensembles still suggest a 5-10% chance of 6-hour rainfall tallies of 2-4"+, supporting a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall leading to localized flooding in poor drainage areas across all East Central Florida.

High temps should range from the upper 80s to the low 90s, with Monday the warmer of the next two days. Peak heat indices should range from 98 to 106. Southwest winds will be breezy at times outside of storms as well, from 15 to 25 mph.

Tuesday-Saturday (Modified Previous Discussion)...The grand ensemble continues to signal a pattern transition by Tuesday, especially Wednesday. As the trough fills and lifts away from Florida, mid- level ridging is expected to expand westward over the W Atlantic. Near-surface high pressure should lift northward, its axis near Central Florida before shifting north of I-10 by Thursday. Offshore flow will diminish on Tuesday afternoon and become onshore by Wednesday. Each day, the Atlantic sea breeze should form. While it may remain relatively close to the coast on Tuesday, it should reach farther inland thereafter.

Guidance keeps total moisture values above normal on Tuesday before it slightly decreases to near normal beginning Wednesday. All told, storm chances will remain elevated for all areas on Tuesday afternoon, 60-70%. Then by Wednesday and Thursday, more typical storm coverage is anticipated, ranging from 40-60% along the coast to 60-75% over the interior from Orlando southward.

Global ensembles continue to indicate that an inverted trough will cross the Atlantic this week south of the Bermuda high, reaching Florida by around Friday. Another surge of anomalous moisture is forecast to accompany this feature late this week, perhaps lingering into next weekend. Combined with onshore flow, enhanced coverage (60- 70%) of showers and storms is forecast, especially over the interior. Whether this moisture surge comes over the state or is deflected just to our northeast is still in question - and this will help determine just how unsettled it gets late in the week.

MARINE

Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

(Modified Previous Discussion) A cold front settles into the Southern Appalachians today, allowing southwesterly winds to freshen over the local Atlantic, especially offshore Volusia tonight. Scattered to numerous offshore-moving showers and storms are forecast again today and on Monday. Then, high pressure begins to lift northward, reaching Central Florida on Wednesday before pushing even farther northward late in the work week. More typical sea breeze conditions will return with this pattern change.

Today, south-southwest winds increase to 10-15 kt nearshore, and 15- 20 kt in the Gulf Stream off of Volusia Co, and the northernmost Gulf Stream waters off the Space Coast, where small craft should exercise caution. Winds turn more out of the south on Monday, 10-15 kt. By late Tuesday and into Wednesday, southeasterly flow is favored, generally 10 kt or less with some enhancement behind the sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft in most locations through the next few days, perhaps locally 4 feet late today and tonight well offshore of Ponce Inlet.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Lowering confidence surrounding shower and lightning storm potential thru the aftn and early eve, due to extensive cloud-cover, lack or radar returns already, and CAM guidance backing off on convection. Strongest activity, should it develop, likely across the Treasure Coast. Keep TEMPO groups in place for now, but realize they may not occur or could be delayed - should convection finally get going. Should the ECSB develop anywhere today it will remain pinned along the (Treasure) coast, but could enhance storms locally as they move off of the coast. Aside from frequent lightning and torrential downpours, expect storms to be locally gusty again. Activity is forecast to wind down after sunset, but could see ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection lingering thru the evening, then mostly dry overnight. For an early look into Mon, more of the same with persistent pattern in place; SWRLY flow at the surface and for storm steering aloft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 89 74 89 / 30 50 20 70 MCO 75 90 75 90 / 30 50 20 70 MLB 75 90 75 89 / 20 60 20 60 VRB 73 90 73 89 / 20 60 30 60 LEE 75 88 75 89 / 40 60 30 60 SFB 75 90 75 91 / 30 50 20 70 ORL 76 90 75 90 / 30 50 20 70 FPR 73 89 73 88 / 30 60 30 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.