textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

- High coverage of afternoon and evening storms is expected today and continuing through early next week, even at the coast. There is at least a limited threat of localized flooding in urban and poorly drained areas from repeated rounds of heavy rain over several days.

- The High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues today at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

- Seasonable temperatures through early next week with high humidity producing heat indices in the low 100s each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Today-Tonight... An upper level trough will approach the northeast coast, moving offshore into tonight, as the ridge axis across Cuba and the western Atlantic shifts southward through the day. This will cause an overall pattern shift locally that wil last into next week. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic, extending over the Florida peninsula, will also slowly shift southward as the trough moves offshore. Locally, light southerly winds will become southwest to west by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze will form in the afternoon, with the sea breeze collision occurring over the eastern half of the peninsula, east of Orlando, near the coast.

Deep tropical moisture will advect in across the area in the southwesterly flow, increasing PW values to 2.0-2.2". This increase in deep moisture, aided by shortwave energy aloft, will increase rain chances over the local area. There is a high (70-80 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms, with highest coverage of convection occurring in the afternoon and evening before moving offshore. Main storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall accumulations of 1.5-2.5" are expected, with isolated totals of 3+" will be possible, which will be beneficial due to ongoing drought conditions. However, localized flooding concerns may develop in areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked portions of east central Florida in a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for today, mainly across the Treasure Coast.

Seasonable temperatures are forecast today, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. High humidity will lead to heat indices in the low 100s. Overnight lows will be warm, with lows in low to mid 70s. A High Risk of rip currents exists at all area beaches today.

Friday-Sunday... The aforementioned trough will push offshore by early Friday morning. This trough will continue to shift seaward through the weekend as another trough swings into the northeast US, pushing off the coast into late weekend. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic, extending over Florida, will continue to slowly shift southward as the series of troughs move offshore. Locally, light southwest to west winds will dominate, with the east coast sea breeze forming each day, turning the winds onshore. Much like today, the sea breeze collision will occur across the eastern portion of the peninsula, closer to the coast.

Deep moisture remains in place over east central Florida, with forecast PW values of 2+". This will maintain the higher rain chances across the area, with 60-80 percent chance of rain areawide each day. The highest chance for convection will occur in the afternoon and evening (with the sea breeze collision), before moving offshore. Thus, much like today, a true washout is not expected. Main storm threats will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Localized flooding concerns may develop in areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over several days, especially across urban areas. Widespread accumulations of 1.5-2.5" of rainfall are expected with convection, with isolated totals of 3+" remaining possible if locations see multiple rounds of storms or training storms.

Seasonable temperatures are forecast each day, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce heat indices ranging from 98-102 degrees. Warm conditions overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Wednesday... Another upper level trough will move offshore of the northeast US into mid week. Surface high pressure across the central US will shift towards the eastern seaboard into mid week. Global models continue to be in disagreement about if an approaching cold front will stall near the area, and if so, where the front will stall into mid week. Regardless of which model solution ends up panning out, high coverage of showers and lightning storms (70-80 percent) are forecast each day. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat along the front, which may exacerbate any flooding concerns that develop through the weekend. Southwesterly flow will continue through the period, with the east coast sea breeze forming each day. However, the west coast sea breeze will dominate, with the sea breeze collision occurring on the eastern side of the peninsula, closer to coast. Temperatures will be seasonable early in the week, becoming slightly below normal into mid week as the aforementioned cold front reaches the area.

MARINE

Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Today-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the period. High pressure off the southeast US coast will begin to slowly shift southward as a trough pushes off the northeast US coast. This will turn the winds southwest to west, with speeds remaining under 15 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form daily through at least Sunday near the coast, turning the winds onshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms (50-70 percent) are forecast to develop near the coast each afternoon before pushing offshore through the evening and overnight hours. Seas 2-4ft today will decrease to 1-3ft through the weekend before building to 3-5ft on Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Southwest winds across the interior and southeast winds along the coast pick up late morning into the afternoon hours, with conditions favoring a sea breeze collision across the eastern portion of the Florida peninsula today. VCTS after 18Z across most terminals as convection begins. TEMPOs added in from TIX southward between 19-22Z and at MCO/ISM/SFB between 20-23Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Will monitor timing trends and amend as needed. Shower and storm activity will push eastward and offshore through the evening hours, with light and variable winds forecast at the terminals after 00Z. Looking into Friday, winds are forecast to become more westerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 73 88 73 / 70 40 70 30 MCO 89 73 89 74 / 70 40 70 30 MLB 88 75 88 75 / 80 50 60 40 VRB 89 73 89 74 / 80 60 60 50 LEE 88 75 90 75 / 70 20 60 20 SFB 91 74 91 74 / 70 40 70 30 ORL 89 75 90 75 / 70 40 70 30 FPR 88 73 88 74 / 80 60 60 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.