textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- An inverted trough has ushered in deep tropical moisture across the area, leading to high rain chances through Saturday along with a risk for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding issues.

- Poor boating conditions continue offshore this evening, with a High Risk of rip currents at area beaches.

- Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves towards east central Florida.

- Hot and humid conditions will persist across east central Florida, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Through Tonight...An inverted trough lifting northwest from the Bahamas and across the Florida peninsula has brought a deep plume of tropical moisture locally, with PWATs of 2.1-2.3" areawide. The result has been an early start to convection, with early morning showers increasing in coverage into the afternoon hours. Active development of showers and storms will continue through the remainder of this afternoon into the evening hours, with PoPs between 60-70% areawide. Despite sufficient steering flow keeping activity moving westward, multiple rounds of showers and storms will lead to a higher risk of flooding across east central Florida, with rainfall accumulations of 2-4" and locally higher amounts possible. East central Florida remains outlooked in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall today. Storm activity so far has followed typical Florida summertime trends, with frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours the primary concerns. The environment remains supportive for this activity to persist through the remainder of this afternoon and evening. Guidance continues to favor activity overall diminishing across east central Florida beyond 8 PM, but persistent onshore flow coupled with the higher moisture means continued shower and isolated storm development across the local Atlantic waters is anticipated. Some of these showers and storms may be able to push onshore overnight and into early Saturday.

Saturday-Sunday...The inverted trough will continue to lift northwestward across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf on Saturday, eventually diminishing into Sunday as the Atlantic high reestablishes itself as the dominant surface feature across the Florida peninsula. The plume of moisture associated with the trough will linger across the peninsula through this weekend, with PoPs ranging between 50-70% on Saturday and 40-60% on Sunday. Activity on Saturday will follow a similar pattern to today, with southeasterly flow driving development across the local Atlantic waters and pushing it onshore, with increasing coverage across the peninsula forecast through the afternoon hours. Weaker flow aloft may lead to slower-moving activity Saturday, increasing the threat for localized flooding. The area remains outlooked in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall on Saturday, with rainfall accumulations of 2-4" and locally higher amounts not able to be ruled out in some spots. Sunday, shower and storm development will follow more of a diurnal pattern, with convection primarily being driven by sea breeze development and intrusion inland as well as any additional outflow boundaries. Storm development will be possible each day through this weekend, though activity looks to remain sub-severe overall. Cannot rule out a stronger storm or two on Sunday thanks to some drier air aloft drifting towards the area. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and heavy downpours remain the primary hazards. Each evening and into the overnight hours, anticipate activity gradually winding down with mostly dry conditions areawide.

Temperatures will overall remain near normal through this weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s though some locations near and north of the I-4 corridor could see some temperatures reaching the mid 90s. Humid conditions will keep peak heat indices in the 100- 107F range this weekend, so be sure to remain adequately hydrated and take breaks indoors or in the shade if staying outdoors for extended periods of time. Lows remain in the mid 70s.

Monday-Thursday (previous)...Atlantic ridge axis shifts back south across the area into early next week, and then slowly shifts farther south of the area by mid to late week as a frontal trough pushes into the Southeast United States. This will gradually veer low level winds from the southeast Monday to the south-southeast Tuesday and then out of the west-southwest Wednesday into Thursday. However, winds remain weak and the east coast sea breeze will still form and move inland each day. Mid level ridge shifts westward across the state and remains firmly in place through much of next week. This combined with advection of drier air will lead to lower than normal rain chances into next week. Forecast PoPs are currently no more than 20-30% for each afternoon/evening. With coverage of showers and storms remaining isolated to scattered each day and with ridge in place, temperatures will continue to rise, with highs in the low to mid 90s each day. Will have to monitor for any Heat Advisories as peak heat index values may have the potential to rise to 108-110 in some spots.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Poor boating conditions will persist across the offshore waters through the remainder of this afternoon and into the late evening hours as an inverted trough lifts northwestward across the local waters, with easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots and seas of 3 to 6 feet. Conditions are anticipated to improve after midnight as winds become more southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots and seas subside to 3 to 5 feet. The trough will continue to pull away from the local waters through this weekend, with the Atlantic high returning to the waters late this weekend into early next week. Southeasterly winds around 10 knots persist through Monday, becoming more southwesterly at 10 to 15 knots Tuesday onward as the ridge axis shifts southwards. From Saturday night onward, seas return to 1 to 3 feet across the local waters.

Scattered shower and storm development will continue across the local Atlantic waters tonight through Saturday thanks to a plume of deep tropical moisture brought to the area by the inverted trough. Storms may be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and locally higher seas. Saturday night through most of next week, drier conditions are anticipated across the local Atlantic waters, with rain and storm chances generally remaining around 20% or less.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 142 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

High coverage of showers and storms continues across east central Florida again today. VCTS at all terminals this afternoon with TEMPOs across the interior, DAB, and TIX where VIS/CIG reductions are forecast in convection. Some shower activity may linger across the interior this evening through around 03Z. Otherwise, rounds of onshore moving showers will be possible along the coast through tonight with continued VCSH wording. East-northeast winds around 8-12 kts this afternoon become gusty in vicinity of storms. Winds shift out of the southeast early Saturday around 8-10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 89 76 90 / 30 50 20 30 MCO 76 91 76 92 / 30 60 30 50 MLB 77 89 77 90 / 40 40 10 30 VRB 76 90 77 90 / 40 40 20 30 LEE 77 90 76 91 / 30 60 30 40 SFB 77 91 76 93 / 30 60 30 50 ORL 77 91 76 92 / 30 60 30 50 FPR 76 90 76 90 / 40 40 20 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.