textproduct: Melbourne

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Today-Thursday...Upper level high pressure across the Gulf and Deep South will remain in place through the period as an upper level trough moves into the upper northeast US and out into the Atlantic. Surface high pressure across the southeast US today will begin to slowly shift southward over the Florida peninsula on Christmas Day (Thursday). Locally, this will result in north to north east winds dominating each day, with speeds generally 10 mph or less. Drier air will remain in place, with forecast soundings showing a significant dry layer in the mid to upper levels. Because of this, mostly dry conditions are forecast through the period. However, due to the onshore flow and sufficient moisture (PW values around 0.8") along with a backdoor front pushing through the area, an isolated light shower, or sprinkle may develop over the waters and push onshore, mainly across the Treasure Coast, late today and into tonight. Otherwise, no mentionable rain chances over land areas through the period.

Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s both days. Overnight lows will be in the 50s across the interior, and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast tonight, before turning cooler on Thursday night with lows generally in the 50s. Patchy fog is forecast late tonight into Thursday morning as well as Thursday night into Friday morning. Models show fog potential mainly along and north of the I-4 corridor tonight, and generally north of Martin County on Thursday night. If you encounter fog while driving, remember to slow down and turn on your headlights!

Friday-Sunday... Upper level trough over the Great Lakes region on Friday will deepen as it moves across the eastern US into the weekend, eventually pushing offshore into the Atlantic on Sunday as another trough develops near the Great Lakes region. Upper level ridging over the Gulf and Deep South will begin to weaken after Friday as several disturbances from the trough over the Great Lakes moves into the eastern US. At the surface, axis of high pressure will remain over the Florida peninsula as the center of high pressure moves into the Gulf and low pressure moves across the eastern US. A cold front will then move into the Deep south and then into northern Florida on Sunday. Locally, winds will shift westerly on Friday, and west to northwest on Saturday and Sunday, with speeds generally 10 KT or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each day, turning the winds onshore along the coast and part way inland in the afternoon. Dry conditions are forecast through the end of the weekend. Temperatures will remain seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s.

Monday-Tuesday... A strong upper level low over the Great Lakes on Monday will lift north and eastward to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia Tuesday. A strong cold front will move southward across east central Florida through the day on Monday. High pressure will then build over the Florida peninsula behind the front. Locally, winds will shift north to northwest on Monday, and more northerly on Tuesday, with speeds at 10-15 mph on Monday, and generally 10 mph on Tuesday except along the coast where it will remain breezy. This frontal passage looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas currently in the forecast. Model disagreements continue however, with the GFS showing a dry frontal passage over land and the ECMWF indicating the potential for a little more rainfall with this boundary into Monday/Monday evening. For now, have isolated to scattered showers over the Atlantic waters Monday and Tuesday, with land areas remaining dry.

Drier and much cooler air will filter behind the front, with below normal temperatures forecast into the middle of next week. However, temperatures on Monday still look to be near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s on Monday, with noticeably cooler highs on Tuesday with temperatures ranging from mid to upper 50s across the north to mid 60s across the south. Temperatures will drop overnight, with lows ranging from upper 30s to low 50s on Monday night, before turning even colder Tuesday night with lows generally in the 30s across the interior, and upper 30s to low 40s along the coast. Due to the NW winds remaining around 10 mph overnight Monday, wind chills are forecast as low as the mid to upper 30s across northern portions of east central Florida Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 213 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Today-Sunday... Boating conditions will continue to improve today, with generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend. However boating conditions will begin to deteriorate Sunday night into next week as the next cold front approaches the local waters. Northeast winds around 10 KT today will back north to northwest on Thursday, west to northwest on Friday and Saturday, and west to southwest on Sunday with winds increasing to 15-20 KT Sunday night as winds veer west to northwest. Isolated showers are forecast today through Thursday, mainly across the offshore waters and the nearshore waters of the Treasure Coast. Guidance is showing some of these showers potentially pushing onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast, late today into early Thursday morning. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast. Seas 3-5 ft today will subside to 2-4 ft Thursday and Friday before seas briefly build back up to 5ft in the offshore waters on Saturday. Seas briefly subside to 2-4ft on on Sunday before building up to 6ft Sunday night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1216 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Models continue to suggest patchy fog overnight into early Wed morning (generally after 08Z) along and north of the I-4 corridor. Have kept inherited TEMPOs for IFR conditions from MCO/ISM northward, with MVFR reductions to TIX/MLB. Will continue to monitor the trends into the morning hours. Regardless, any FG/BR is forecast to diminish by around 13-14Z, with VFR conditions then prevailing. N/NE winds under 10 kts through the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 56 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 79 58 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 77 58 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 77 57 78 55 / 10 10 0 0 LEE 79 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 79 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 79 58 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 77 56 78 55 / 10 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.