textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 226 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Fog that could become dense and reduce visibility to less than a mile will be possible again tonight into Sunday morning.

- A High Risk of rip currents continues at local beaches this weekend.

- Very warm this weekend, then a series of fronts will bring colder than normal temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Rest of Today-Sunday...A stalled frontal boundary draped across the North Florida peninsula, near our northern counties today, begins to lift as a warm front tonight by a potent low pressure system developing over and tracking across the Southeast. This will keep winter weather impacting much of the rest of the US north of Central Florida through the weekend, as onshore winds today shift south to southwesterly tomorrow, keeping temperatures well above normal. Highs today ranging from the M70-L80s push into the M-U80s inland Sunday, upwards of 15 degrees above normal, near daily high temperature records, and threatening a few monthly high temperature records. A sea breeze will attempt to form Sunday, but the opposing offshore flow is expected to keep it pinned near or just offshore the coast. At the moment highs Sunday along the coastal corridor are forecast to reach the L-M80s, still threatening daily high temperature records, though Daytona will be a stretch. However, can't rule out highs here reaching the U80s as well if the sea breeze ends up offshore most/all of the day.

Winds this afternoon top out around 10 mph, then increase Sunday afternoon to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front associated with the low pressure system passing to our north. A moderate breeze and gusty conditions are likely to persist Sunday night. A few showers developing over the Atlantic waters could push onshore through the period (PoPs 10-20% along the coast) through the period, but otherwise dry conditions continue. Fog will be possible again late tonight into Sunday morning, and could become locally dense reducing visibility to less than a mile. Most locations should see clearing shortly after sunrise, but a few spots could see reduced visibility linger later into the morning.

Conditions at the beaches will be dangerous despite the warm temperatures and limited rain chances. A High risk of life- threatening rip currents is expected to continue through Sunday. Enter the water is strongly discouraged!

Next Week (Modified Previous Discussion)...As the aforementioned low lifts northeastward and offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coast, it will drag a strong cold front through the Florida peninsula late Sunday night and into Monday. Scattered showers are expected along the frontal boundary, beginning after midnight on Monday. PoPs 30-50%, diminishing from north to south into the late morning and early afternoon hours. Limited CAPE is forecast to prevent any lightning formation. Breezy winds continue Monday behind the front, though veer northwesterly through the day. This will put an end to the heat wave, producing a temperature gradient across the county warning area. Locations along and north of the I-4 corridor are forecast to remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while areas to the south warm into the mid-70s to lower 80s.

High pressure builds into the area Tuesday, with another cold front forecast to move southward through the peninsula Thursday. Dry conditions prevail through the work week, despite the second front. Cold temperatures return, beginning Monday night into Tuesday morning, as lows fall into the 30s for all but the Treasure Coast. Below normal highs in the 50s to lower 60s Tuesday afternoon will have limited recovery through the remainder of the period, thanks to the reinforcing frontal boundary. In fact, overnight lows in the 30s and lower 40s will remain a concern each night. Will need to monitor the potential for near freezing temperatures in the colder locations, especially Tuesday night and Thursday night. Cold Weather Advisories may be needed, with wind chills returning to the 20s for at least portions of the area most nights.

MARINE

Issued at 226 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected from Sunday into much of next week. The ridge axis of high pressure extending across the subtropical Atlantic to Florida today is shunted south by a low pressure system developing over and tracking across the Southeast this weekend. A strong cold front pushes through Florida and the local Atlantic waters late Sunday into Monday as the low departs northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard, followed by deep high pressure moving into the Southeast, with another front expected mid to late next week.

Onshore winds 5-15 kts today veer through the night. A northeasterly swell arriving tonight will cause boating conditions to deteriorate ahead of increasing winds, as seas 5-7 ft in the Gulf Stream and 4-6 ft closer to shore build south through the late overnight and Sunday. South to southwesterly winds Sunday increase to 15-20 kts in the afternoon, further increasing to 15-25 kts overnight as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front. Winds continue to veer Monday while remaining 15-25 kts, becoming northwesterly behind the front. Winds then surge to 25-30 kts from the northwest to north Monday night. Seas build to 6-9 ft nearshore and over 10 ft in the Gulf Stream. Northerly winds diminish Tuesday, but seas will be slower to subside especially in the Gulf Stream. Conditions become more favorable albeit choppy Wednesday, then deteriorate again with the next front late in the week.

Isolated to maybe scattered showers could be whipped up today and Sunday, then isolated to scattered showers and maybe a lightning storm will precede the front Sunday night into early Monday afternoon. Mostly dry conditions expected through the rest of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 655 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Stratus producing IFR/MVFR cigs across NE Florida is spreading southward this evening and should reach KDAB around 01Z and KLEE around 03Z. Some of the hi-res guidance slows the southward push of the stratus deck as it moves toward KMCO/KISM/KTIX, but have at least mentioned tempo MVFR cigs from 8-12Z at these sites. Visibilities will also lower with this stratus deck, with greatest potential for dense fog and LIFR visibilities at KDAB between 8-12Z. From KMLB northward have at least tempo IFR/MVFR visibilities continuing in the TAFs for late tonight/early Sunday. Any fog will lift and diminish by 14Z, but stratus across north central FL may take a little longer to break up into late morning. Have VFR conditions then forecast across the entire area by 16Z.

Light E/SE winds into tonight, will pick up out of the S/SE by late morning to around 10-12 knots. Then into the afternoon winds will continue to increase, becoming breezy out of the south around 12-15 knots, with gusts up to 20-25 knots.

CLIMATE

Issued at 226 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Forecast high temperatures compared to the daily and monthly records for Sunday, January 25th.

FCST DAILY MONTHLY DAB 83 87 87 LEE 84 85 86 SFB 85 85 89 MCO 86 86 88 MLB 82 85 88 VRB 84 86 88 FPR 84 86 89

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 83 63 70 / 10 10 30 20 MCO 63 86 67 72 / 10 0 30 30 MLB 63 82 65 75 / 10 10 10 30 VRB 64 84 65 78 / 10 10 10 30 LEE 61 84 62 67 / 10 10 50 20 SFB 61 85 65 71 / 10 0 30 30 ORL 63 85 66 71 / 10 0 30 30 FPR 64 84 65 78 / 10 10 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ572.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ575.