textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

- A little warmer today with dry conditions continuing. Sunshine will be filtered through high clouds at times. - The next cold front will push through during Sunday but will come through mostly dry. Scattered showers and a storm or two will affect Treasure coast/Okeechobee. - Breezy to windy conditions develop Sunday evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds in behind the front. These winds will produce very hazardous boating and surf conditions Sun night/Mon, with high surf and beach erosion.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Today/tonight...High pressure ridge axis draped across north central FL will weaken and push seaward. Dry conditions persist today with light winds turning onshore in a sea breeze around 10 mph south of the Cape. There will be some increase in high clouds filtering the sun at times as well as some fair weather cumulus. Max temps will warm into the mid and upper 70s, slightly above normal for mid Dec. Tonight, moisture lifts northward from south FL. Along with considerable cloudiness there will be scattered showers and possibly a storm or two after midnight lifting northward into Okeechobee and Treasure coast counties. Across northern sections, there is a better chance for fog across Volusia county, spreading southward toward metro Orlando.

Sun-Mon...Ongoing showers across southern sections Sun morning will move NE and offshore onto the Atlc as a cold front pushes steadily southward across the area during the day. A NW breeze will develop initially behind the front. Then strong high pressure (1040mb) over the central US builds SE into FL and tightens the NW-N pressure gradient late Sun and esp Sun night. This will result in a period of windy conditions along the coast with Wind Advisories likely Sun night into early Monday. While it will become noticeably cooler with max temps holding in the 60s on Monday, because the winds turn onshore so quickly, the cold continental airmass will rapidly modify over EC FL sparing us any freeze concerns.

These strong N/NE winds will produce rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion Sun night into Mon. Fortunately the duration will be very short as the high pressure weakens steadily as it reaches the Carolina coast late Mon. The high tide of most concern will be early Mon between 4am-5am. A High Surf Advisory may be needed for breaking waves of 7-9 FT.

Tue-Fri...The high pressure will shift eastward over the Atlc. A trailing ridge axis will remain near 30N lat so a general easterly flow will dominate Tue-Wed at 10-15 mph veering SE Thu 10 mph. The next cold front is forecast to approach Fri but lack of moisture looks to limit rain chances. Temperatures will undergo a warming trend each day reaching the upper 70s/near 80 Thu (mid 70s coastal Volusia). Lows will generally be in the 50s, holding in the lower 60s along the coast by Thu morning.

MARINE

Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

High pressure ridge across the northern (Volusia) waters will produce favorable boating conditions again today. Light and variable winds will turn northeast to east up to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and up to 3 FT offshore Treasure coast. Scattered showers and a few storms will lift north into the southern (Treasure coast) waters tonight and Sun ahead of a cold front. This next front will sweep across the waters during Sunday with a NW wind shift.

Winds will increase out of the north late Sunday and Sunday night as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind the cold front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20-30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore (up to 10 FT nearshore Volusia) and up to 13 ft in the Gulf Stream. NE winds decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday and 10-15 KT Tue as pressure gradient eases. High pressure pushes out to sea Wed and winds veer Easterly remaining 10-15 KT. Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday with seas falling below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream late in the day. Seas Wed 3 FT nearshore and 4 FT offshore.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 615 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions forecast at all ECFL airports through around 08Z tonight, then fog or showers (hopefully not both) expected to impact most if not all terminals. Some mid-upper level cloud cover starting to obscure satellite imagery, but based on satellite, obs, and traffic cameras, little if any fog other than some MIFG has developed so far this morning, and the window of opportunity will close by 13Z. Light/VRB winds this morning shift ESE-SE 5-10 kts, highest along the southern coast where some gusts to 15-20 kts can't be ruled out in the afternoon, then becoming light/VRB again after 23Z. Pretty good agreement for at least MVFR VIS impacts from fog at northern terminals including KMCO tonight after 08Z, with currently low (10-20%) chances for IFR-LIFR reductions. While chances for fog are lower at KSUA-KFPR, showers and possibly lightning storms are forecast to lift INVOF those terminals after 04Z. KMLB finds itself in between these two impacts, with modest chances (around 20%) for MVFR VIS reductions and low chances (around 10%) for showers to reach that far north. Fog should clear by 14Z Sunday at the latest, but rain chances will linger at KSUA-KVRB through the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 56 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 77 60 78 52 / 0 10 10 0 MLB 77 61 78 57 / 0 10 20 10 VRB 77 61 79 59 / 0 20 30 10 LEE 76 57 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 77 58 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 77 59 78 50 / 0 10 10 0 FPR 78 61 79 59 / 0 30 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.