textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Excessive Rain Threat This Week: Multiple rounds of rain and storms are expected through Thursday, especially along the coast where totals of 2-4" are forecast. Localized higher amounts may lead to flash flooding in urban and poorly-drained areas.

- Strong Wind Gusts Beginning Tuesday: Persistent northeast winds will gust from 25-35 mph starting Tuesday. There is a 20-40% chance of peak wind gusts exceeding 45 mph on Tuesday and Wednesday. These winds may cause a few power outages; secure all lightweight outdoor items.

- Dangerous Surf & Boating Impacts: Large breaking waves building to 8-12 feet at Central Florida's Atlantic beaches Tuesday through Thursday, with higher waves offshore. Expect minor to moderate beach erosion around high tide and numerous life- threatening rip currents. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

During the work week, the pattern evolution favors multiple weather hazards affecting Central Florida. Early this morning, a broad mid-level trough over the Northeast U.S. has sent a cold front into the Deep South. Above-normal total moisture exists ahead of the boundary, with a ribbon of PWs exceeding 175% of normal situated over the Florida Panhandle. Strong continental high pressure is nudging into the Northern Plains behind a clipper-type disturbance. Split flow is evident across the West; a branch of the subtropical jet is currently entering the Rio Grande Valley.

The 05/12Z grand ensemble is in relatively good agreement with the interplay of these features over Florida during the next 24-48 hours. The cold front is projected to decelerate as it enters the Florida peninsula early this week, leaving plentiful moisture over the southern two-thirds of the state. This will occur as the 1035+ mb high migrates into the Eastern Great Lakes by late Tuesday.

Synoptic ascent will increase as the subtropical jet streak ejects into the Gulf, placing Florida in its left-front quadrant beginning Tuesday. At the same time, the state will feel diffluence from the right-rear quadrant of the polar jet stream along the Eastern Seaboard. Consequently, most of the global guidance sharpens the surface trough over Central FL on Tuesday. A mesoscale low could also form on the boundary. This will substantially tighten the pressure and height gradients, with some members increasing northeasterly 3 kft (H925) winds to over 50 kt late Tuesday. These values hold at 30-40 kt through at least Wednesday night.

By Thursday, a secondary disturbance in the subtropical jet may pass overhead. The surface trough is forecast to settle into the Florida Straits, with brisk onshore flow persisting. Anomalous moisture should remain in place, interacting with frictional convergence along the coast, particularly at night/early morning.

As ridging begins to overtake the Eastern U.S., this unsettled weather pattern is then expected to loosen its grip on Florida late in the week. About 60% of members prefer a quicker transition out of this pattern starting on Friday, with the remainder showing a lingering weakness at H5 through Saturday. There is strong agreement that the H5 ridge will assert itself over Florida late in the weekend, allowing a warming and drying trend to commence.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Through Thursday...

Excessive Rainfall Impact:

Unsettled weather gets underway today as a cold front settles into the northern half of the district. After a mainly quiet morning, showers and storms should develop after lunchtime on the east coast sea breeze. At the same time, hi-res guidance continues to develop convection near the stalled front along the I-4 corridor, persisting until the sea breeze collision occurs south of Orlando. Proximity soundings show an uncapped troposphere with sufficient instability and relatively slow storm motions. Much of the area is in a Marginal excessive rainfall risk, and the WPC Urban Rain Rate Dashboard for Greater Orlando shows a 40% chance of 3"+ of rain falling somewhere in the metro area this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly mid-level flow may steer these storms back toward the east coast late in the evening.

Along the coast starting Monday night and into Tuesday, jet dynamics become increasingly favorable for heavy rain and localized flooding. Early-arriving convective guidance depicts this quite well, with slow-moving rain bands developing near the stalled surface trough axis somewhere between St Augustine and Melbourne. Statistical guidance suggests that between Monday night and Tuesday, 1-3" should be expected along the I-95 corridor, with a 5-10% chance of 5" or more.

There may be a bit of a lull in the heavy rain on Wednesday, but another disturbance arriving Wednesday night through Thursday is likely to enhance these rainbands along the coast once again. From Wednesday through Friday, an additional 1-2" is most likely on the coast, with a 10% chance of exceeding 3-4".

All told through daybreak Friday, most likely tallies are between 1-3" over the interior and 2-4" along the coast, with localized 5-7"+ amounts. If this rain falls in a short timeframe, flash flooding could occur despite the ongoing drought, especially in urban areas. Hopefully it is spread over much of the week which would be beneficial to the drought.

Wind & Coastal Impacts:

Winds ramp up in the tightening pressure gradient behind the surface trough. An initial surge of gusty north-northeast winds (20-25 mph) is expected this afternoon and evening for areas near and north of I-4.

As the boundary shifts slowly southward by Tuesday afternoon, all except the southern Treasure Coast will experience frequent gusty northeast breezes from 25 to 35 mph. These gusts look stronger along the coast late on Tuesday into Wednesday, where there is a 40-70% chance of peak gusts exceeding 40 mph. Isolated (10% chance) peak gusts to 50 mph are possible along the immediate coast. Windy weather sticks around on Thursday, with gusts from 25 to 30 mph.

This duration of strong onshore winds may cause sporadic power outages if limbs fall on power lines. Secure any lightweight items, such as trash cans, that may be tossed about.

At our beaches, expect another round of dangerous surf that will spread southward with the front. From Tuesday through Thursday, breakers of 8 to 12 feet will increase run-up at high tides, which may produce minor to moderate beach erosion. Without question, numerous life-threatening rip currents are likely. Please stay out of the ocean this week, and if you visit the beach, never turn your back on the water.

Expect warm temperatures today (upper 70s to mid 80s), followed up by cooler highs in the low/mid 70s through mid-week. A few spots on Tuesday may struggle to reach 70 degrees, especially north of Orlando.

Friday - Next Weekend...

We should gradually come out of this impactful stretch of weather as we approach the weekend. Some lingering showers are still forecast on Friday (40-50%) and perhaps even Saturday (20-30%) as fresh onshore breezes continue. Rainfall amounts should be lighter, however. Most locations should be dry by next Sunday. A warming trend should get underway, with highs from the upper 70s to the low 80s.

MARINE

Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A cold front reaches the local Atlantic today, north of Cape Canaveral. It then slowly pushes southward through the waters before exiting toward the Florida Straits by Thursday. Dangerous boating conditions will follow this front through mid to late this week. Northeasterly winds will increase behind the front, with gale-force gusts expected at times from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.

Initially, advisory-level winds only reach the Volusia waters today. By Tuesday afternoon, NE 20-30 kt winds will encompass all but the Treasure Coast waters. Gusts to gale force are expected to begin from north to south on Tuesday afternoon, lasting off and on through Wednesday night. Thus, a Gale Watch has been issued. Seas will quickly build into Tuesday, 5-8 ft south to 8-12 ft north, continuing upward to 10-16 ft on Wednesday. Seas remain hazardous through the rest of the work week as wind only slowly decreases.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Patchy IFR/MVFR CIGs and VSBYs at DAB/SFB and even MCO along and ahead of a cool front approaching the area. Patchy ground fog at VRB/FPR will lift quickly after sunrise. Shower and storm chances increase today (60-70%) with a front that will progress slowly southward through the area. Numerous showers and scattered storms forecast into this afternoon and continuing into the nighttime. Kept VCTS starting at 19Z across the interior, with an earlier start around 17Z along the coast from TIX southward as sea breeze begins to develop. Have inserted TEMPO TS with MVFR conditions at MCO/TIX/MLB. Other TEMPOs will likely be needed as convective evolutions becomes clearer. Prevailing MVFR conds developing southward behind the front reaching as far south as MLB by 03Z-05Z.

Winds will be light and variable initially this morning, becoming N/NE 8-12 knots as front crosses northern terminals and E/NE along the coast south of the Cape as sea breeze forms into the afternoon. Winds then increase further behind the front becoming breezy to windy (14-19 knots, gusts to 25-27 knots) behind the front from KMCO northward after 20-21Z. Highest gusts will be at DAB aft 19Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 78 63 71 64 / 60 80 80 40 MCO 82 64 70 65 / 80 70 80 40 MLB 82 66 75 67 / 70 80 80 60 VRB 83 65 76 66 / 70 80 80 70 LEE 82 62 72 63 / 60 70 70 30 SFB 81 64 72 63 / 70 80 80 40 ORL 82 64 72 64 / 80 70 80 40 FPR 83 64 76 65 / 60 80 80 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-570.

Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for AMZ550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555- 575.

Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.