textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- A High Risk of rip currents exists at all east central Florida beaches through at least Thursday; hazardous boating conditions today to last into Thursday

- Rain chances shift south with today's front, accompanied by drier and cooler air through Thursday, before another warming trend into the weekend

- More moisture late weekend into early next week increases rain and storm chances, especially Tuesday onward

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Today-Tonight...A front is very slowly moving south this morning, currently stretching from Leesburg across the Orlando metro to Cape Canaveral. Winds just behind the front are starting to pick up along the Volusia Coast and will spread south this morning. Scattered showers and the occasional lightning storm are focused on Volusia, Seminole, and northern Brevard counties as of 2 AM. Where rain is falling, rain rates are 1-2"+ per hour at times, though a bulk of activity so far has remained offshore.

Short-range guidance suggests the front will start to pick up steam and move a bit quicker south, starting around sunrise. This is together with an upper level low that begins exiting the Carolina Coast and moving offshore later today. A notable uptick in northeast winds is forecast through the morning, continuing through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained winds with gusts 20-25 mph are likely, and a 40-60% chance of 25+ mph gusts exists from Orlando/Cape Canaveral northward (00z HREF). Even higher probabilities appear along the Volusia and north Brevard coasts through midday. While there will be a good bit of cloud cover through the morning, more sunshine should break out this afternoon with efficient mid level drying. Below normal temperatures are forecast with highs only reaching the low 80s areawide. Lows tonight will truly feel like the mid 60s to low 70s as humidity briefly lowers.

A high risk of rip currents exists at all east-central Florida beaches today. Entering the rough, 4 to 6-foot surf is highly discouraged!

Thursday-Saturday...The aforementioned front sinks south of the area tonight, then stalls across south Florida (or the Florida Straits) for the next several days. A surface high becomes centered over the Appalachians Thursday, drifting southeast toward the Virginia and Carolina coasts Friday into the weekend. While some questions remain as to how far south the influence of this high will reach, much of the area will experience a lot of dry time through Saturday. The south Florida front may wobble a bit north from time to time, especially Friday into the weekend. Enough moisture will remain over the Atlantic and far southern reaches (Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin Counties) of our area that isolated onshore-moving showers cannot be ruled out. Temperatures Thursday are still forecast to be 5-8 degrees below normal, even with more sunshine expected. Then, a warming trend resumes from Friday onward as onshore flow becomes established. Highs will approach the 90-degree mark across the interior by Saturday, with coastal locations a few degrees less behind the daily east coast sea breeze.

The risk for rip currents will likely remain high through the end of the week, perhaps on into the weekend. Always heed the advice of lifeguards and avoid entering the surf when red flags are flying!

Sunday-Tuesday...As temperatures continue to trend warmer, moisture begins to surge northward Sunday into next week. Rain chances (along with an isolated lightning storm or two) grow areawide on Sunday to 20-40%, focused mainly south of the Cape. Upper level low pressure expands southward next week and by Tuesday, surface flow veers out of the south-southwest. A transition to a westerly wind component helps build rain and storm chances to 50-60% from Tuesday onward. That wetter pattern could very well last for several days next week, if current guidance verifies. The hottest day of the extended period looks to be Monday (upper 80s low 90s) before those rain chances increase midweek.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Hazardous boating conditions will spread south across the local Atlantic today as winds freshen behind a passing cold front. 20-25 kt sustained winds with gusts around 30 kt are expected, helping to build seas up to 7-10 ft offshore (5-7 ft nearshore). Seas will remain hazardous into Thursday but slowly improve west of the Gulf Stream. Up to 7 ft seas linger in the Gulf Stream Thursday as onshore, northeast winds fall to 10-15 kt. Boating conditions become more favorable Friday into the weekend as onshore flow is established beneath a surface high to the north. Isolated showers are possible (15-25% chance), mainly from Friday into the weekend, with a focus to the south of Cape Canaveral.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A cold front continues southward across the Florida peninsula today, with VCSH possible near the terminals. Activity is anticipated to diminish by 18Z areawide, with breezy and gusty northeast winds forecast behind the front. Gusts up to 30 knots will be possible at times, especially at the coastal terminals. Periods of MVFR to IFR CIGs will be possible at times as the front moves southward, with mostly VFR conditions anticipated through today. Winds become lighter around 10 knots overnight, remaining out of the northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 70 82 71 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 82 68 83 68 / 40 0 0 0 MLB 81 73 82 74 / 60 0 10 10 VRB 81 72 82 73 / 60 10 10 10 LEE 82 67 84 68 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 82 68 84 68 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 82 69 84 69 / 30 0 0 0 FPR 80 72 82 72 / 60 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ570-572.