textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures will continue through the extended.

- There remains a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at all central FL Atlantic beaches.

- Mainly dry conditions are forecast to continue through most of the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 804 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

A weak cold front across the southeast U.S. will approach and eventually move into north Florida late tonight. It will remain dry tonight, with passing cirrus leading to partly cloudy skies. Winds will remain light out of the W/SW this evening, becoming light and variable overnight. Main weather concern will be the potential for fog development late tonight through early Monday morning. Hi-res guidance has been fairly consistent in showing greatest potential for fog, with visibilities less than a mile across Lake County extending eastward through the I-4 corridor toward daybreak. HREF probabilities for dense fog (visibilities of a quarter mile or less) are up to 40-60% near to west of Orlando early Monday morning, and have updated the forecast to include areas of fog for this portion of east central FL. Otherwise, have maintained patchy fog mention for areas west of I-95. Any fog or stratus that forms will lift and diminish by mid morning Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Current-Tonight...Weak surface high pressure continues to push further away into the Atlc ahead of an approaching weak "cool" front that will align itself just north of I-4 by sunrise Mon morning. Aloft we find nearly zonal flow with weak shortwave ridging pushing across Texas and eventually the north Gulf overnight. Dry conditions persist with satellite imagery showing fair-weather Cu moving west to east across the central peninsula. Current W/WNW winds 10-15 mph with some higher gusts will decrease to around 5 mph tonight. After a pleasant day with highs in the 70s temps will fall overnight into the M-U50s to around 60F.

Previous Modified Previous Extended Forecast Discussion.

Mon-Wed...The aforementioned weak front will push thru ECFL on Mon and stall across the south-central Florida peninsula into Tue, where it will wash out through mid-week. Amplifying ridging aloft across the Gulf builds into the Gulf Coast States Wed. The front itself is forecast to remain dry, as PWATs remain well below 1.5" (forecast closer to 1.15"). Therefore, no mentionable PoPs have been included for Mon. However, onshore flow will support a slight moisture increase along the dissipating boundary by Tue, where it is forecast to linger into Wed. PWATs will remain low, 1.4-1.5" max across the Treasure Coast, but global models suggest at least a few showers are possible here Tue/Wed. So, have kept inherited low (~20%) PoPs in this area both days for sake of consistency. Elsewhere, conditions look to remain dry. High temps are forecast to increase by a degree or two each day, though are expected to remain in the L80s through mid-week. Onshore flow will have a greater impact on the overnight lows, which look to increase into the 60s for most of the area by Tue morning.

Thu-Sun...Surface high pressure over the southeast U.S. is shunted southward and pushed offshore into the Atlc by a vigorous mid-level trough to the north into the weekend. Locally, dry conditions continue to prevail, as PWATs remain around 1". PoPs below 15% through Sun. Onshore flow will veer southerly through the period, with daily sea breezes. Max temps remain above climo in the L80s, with overnight low temps remaining mild in the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

As weak surface high pressure pushes further into the western Atlc, a weak front will move south into the central FL peninsula on Mon - becoming nearly stationary just south of the Treasure Coast waters into mid-week. Westerly winds into tonight ahead of the approaching boundary, become NW/N behind it during the day on Mon. Winds may increase offshore (Volusia coast) tonight to 15-20 kts, so small craft will have to Exercise Caution here. High pressure will build slowly back into the area, post-frontal, with the pressure gradient (winds) relaxing. Onshore flow quickly develops Mon night thru mid-week (Wed-Thu). With a slight uptick in moisture, we may see some light shower activity across the local waters, mainly south of the Cape by Tue. Seas 2-4 ft thru the period - highest in the Gulf Stream.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 650 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

A weak and dry front will push through the region into tomorrow. VFR conditions are mostly forecast through tomorrow, but patchy fog and stratus may be able to develop south of the front late tonight through early Monday morning. HREF guidance has greatest probabilities for IFR/MVFR conditions from fog and stratus across KLEE/KSFB/KMCO/KISM, and can't rule out brief periods of locally dense fog producing LIFR conditions toward daybreak. For now, have tempo groups at these sites from 11-14Z for IFR vis/cig at KLEE and MVFR conditions at KSFB/KMCO/KISM/KTIX. Any fog/stratus should quickly burn off and lift past sunrise, with any vis/cig reductions ending by 14Z.

Light west winds will become N/NW around 5-7 knots tomorrow, with a sea breeze switching winds to the NE around 7-10 knots as it shifts inland through the afternoon/early evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 77 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 59 79 64 80 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 57 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 60 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 60 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 61 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 57 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.