textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Patchy, locally dense fog late tonight and early Wednesday.

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast through midweek. - A stronger cold front will move through early on Thanksgiving, leading to cooler than normal temperatures and hazardous boating conditions for late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Currently...Surface ridge continues near the area with mid level dry air above 800 mbs on the morning XMR sounding with a PWAT of 1.15 inches. With the dry air aloft, only a few short-lived light showers had developed this afternoon. Afternoon highs may approach the mid 80s across the interior, but will likely fall short of records which are mainly in the upper 80s for todays date.

Tonight...S-SE low level flow around the Atlantic ridge will become light at the surface overnight allowing low temps to drop into the lower to mid 60s. Skies will become mostly clear this evening with patchy fog developing late which may become dense in a few spots.

Wednesday...Low level flow will become WSW by Wed afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching the FL Big Bend. After some patchy early morning fog expect a warm afternoon with highs in the mid 80s across much of the area. Highs will be about 5-7 degs above normal, amd may come within a deg or two of records in a few locations. With the continued dry mid level air across most of the area, a small late afternoon shower chance should be limited to the far south.

Wed Night/Thanksgiving Day...The approaching cold front will move toward northern sections by midnight and progress steadily through the east central Florida on Thanksgiving. Limited moisture with front, and dry air advection is expected across northern sections with afternoon showers and low storm chances forecast across Okeechobee county and the southern Treasure Coast, mainly in the afternoon before deeper drying arrives by late evening. Highs will range from the upper 60s across northern Volusia county to around 80 across Martin.

Thursday night...High pressure will build into the southeast states with cold air advection with northerly winds 5-10 mph inland and stronger along the barrier islands. Lows will drop into the lower 40s across northern Lake and Volusia counties and in the 50s across Martin county. Minimum wind chill values will range from mid 30s across northern Lake to lower 40s in Orlando and lower to mid 40s across Okeechobee county.

Previous extended...Friday-Monday...The trough aloft pushes offshore, trailing generally zonal with maybe a hint of ridging across the eastern US in its wake Friday and Saturday. Surface high pressure over the Deep South behind the front begins to shift east ahead of a low pressure system (possibly) developing over the Central US. Cool, breezy, and dry conditions are forecast Friday and Saturday. Forecast confidence decreases Sunday onward as models begin to disagree on the evolution of the upper level pattern and a developing surface low. The ECM favors developing a trough over the eastern Rockies/central US that the GFS keeps as just a weak shortwave, resulting in the ECM continuing to develop the surface low and possibly bringing a weak cold front to the area early next week, while the GFS keeps the surface low weak and disorganized, though still bringing a weak front to the area by lifting the previous front north as a warm front, as this solution keeps surface high pressure over the Atlantic. Official forecast calls for warming and some chances for rain early next week as moisture looks to increase one way or another.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Tonight-Wednesday...Generally favorable boating conditions as high pressure over the western Atlantic veers the south flow to S-SW across the waters through Wednesday. Winds to around 10 knots tonight and decreasing slightly on Wed. Seas 2-3 ft. Isolated showers are expected.

Thursday-Saturday...Boating conditions deteriorate Thursday as a strong but mostly dry cold front pushes through Florida and the local waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Thanksgiving Afternoon as northerly winds increase to 20-25 kts and seas build to 5-7 ft, highest in the Gulf Stream. These winds and seas are forecast to persist through Friday with gulf stream seas reaching 6-8 ft by Friday afternoon. Conditions remain poor to hazardous into the weekend as strong high pressure building into the Deep South keeps a tight pressure across the area, veering 15-25 kts winds easterly by Saturday and holding seas at 5-7 ft, again highest in the Gulf Stream. Scattered showers and perhaps a lightning storm are possible with the frontal passage on Thursday, then mostly dry conditions forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1215 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Generally VFR thru at least late this evening. Mostly dry near the terminals, but some isolated showers cannot be fully ruled out near FPR and SUA. S/SE winds dominating during the day forecast to become light/variable once more tonight, with more fog development possible late overnight into early Wed morning. MVFR/IFR VIS reductions will be possible, with future TEMPO groups potentially necessary. Confidence too low for inclusion of this presently.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

The cold front pushing through east central FL on Thanksgiving Day will lower Min RHs below 35 percent mainly NW of the I-4 corridor with northerly winds up to 10-15 mph making for a fire sensitive day. Low RH will continue for the NW interior (Lake, western Volusia, western Orange) Fri afternoon with NNE winds up to 15 mph. Fire Weather headlines may be required for portions of the northern interior late this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 83 59 69 / 10 10 0 0 MCO 65 84 64 73 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 65 83 64 75 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 63 83 64 77 / 10 10 10 20 LEE 63 83 59 70 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 64 84 62 70 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 65 84 63 71 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 63 84 64 77 / 10 10 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.