textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon due to low humidity and occasionally gusty winds

- A moderate risk of rip currents exists at area beaches to start the week, followed by an increasing risk Tuesday and Wednesday

- Rain and lightning storm chances increase along and ahead of a front Tuesday and Wednesday; a strong storm and locally heavy rainfall are possible

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Current-Tonight... Dry conditions are observed across east central Florida this afternoon under clear skies. Fire weather sensitivities remain the primary concern through the remainder of the day as relative humidity values fall below critical values. Although locally gusty at times, sustained wind speeds are forecast to mostly remain below 15 mph. High temperatures will peak above normal this afternoon, widely spreading the mid 80s across much of east central Florida. Low temperatures cool into the upper 50s near and north of the Orlando metro tonight where cloud cover should gradually build. Further south, mostly clear skies should allow for more efficient cooling with lows falling into the low to mid 50s. A more favorable environment for fog development exists across this area early Tuesday morning, and have included patchy fog along a line from Clermont/ Orlando/ Melbourne southward.

Tuesday-Wednesday... A cold front sinks into central Florida late Tuesday, stalling and washing out over the area into Wednesday. This will promote increasing moisture across the region with modeled PWATs increasing between 1.3-1.5". High-res guidance suggests first development of showers and storms initiated along the Volusia and Flagler coast late Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon. Developing steering flow out of the northeast should then promote scattered coverage of showers (30-60%) and isolated storms across the I-4 region and southward through portions of Osceola and Brevard late in the day. Early cloud cover across the north looks to limit surface instability and low level lapse rates. However, cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -14C) and forcing from any developing surface boundaries could support a strong storm capable of frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small hail. Scattered rain chances persist into the overnight, particularly along the coast. As the front stalls Tuesday night into Wednesday we will continue to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall across coastal Volusia and coastal Brevard where model soundings continue to suggest weak opposing flow between low and mid levels. Global ensemble members generally point to more broad coverage of scattered showers across the area Wednesday with a few stronger storms again possible.

Building cloud cover on Tuesday should keep temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s from Orlando/ Cape Canaveral northward. More sunshine further south should allow areas south of Orlando to reach well into the mid 80s while a sea breeze keeps coastal locations in the low 80s Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday, temperatures more widely range the mid 70s across far northern portions of Volusia and Lake counties while reaching the low 80s across the far south near Lake Okeechobee.

Increasing onshore flow late Tuesday will lead to deteriorating beach and boating conditions, especially from the Cape northward. Seas increasing to 7-8 ft in the nearshore Volusia waters late Tuesday will result in large breaking waves and rough surf along the Volusia coast. Additionally, the rip current risk is expected to increase to high at all local beaches Tuesday through Wednesday. Residents and visitors should heed the advise of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs.

Thursday-Sunday (modified previous)... Global ensembles may suggest a low chance for showers on Thursday, but conditions trend generally drier through late week and into the first half of Saturday. As the mid week front dissipates near or just south of the forecast area, high pressure briefly expands over the Southeast U.S. late in the week. 500mb ridging is progged to expand from the desert southwest toward the central Gulf Coast by Friday. Onshore flow will continue through Friday with the east coast breeze forming/pushing inland each afternoon. Temperatures will warm to well above normal again, particularly by Friday, reaching the 80s areawide (low 80s at the coast). Another cold front, perhaps a bit stronger this time around, arrives later Saturday into Sunday, bringing the chance for more showers (especially along the coast). Daytime temperatures on Sunday look to retreat closer to normal, only reaching the mid to upper 70s. In addition, breezy to gusty conditions look to gradually evolve from Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions into tonight as winds shift offshore 10-15 kts and seas hold 2-4 ft. The pattern changes into Tuesday as a cold front approaches the waters, eventually stalling and washing out over the area mid week. Winds turn onshore Tuesday increasing to 15-25 kts north of the Cape late in the day, remaining 10-15 kts further south. Higher winds gradually subside early Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon, becoming 10-15 kts areawide. Hazardous seas build from north to south Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night becoming 7-10 ft offshore and 5-7 ft nearshore. Locally higher seas forecast across the nearshore and offshore Volusia waters late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisories will take effect across the Volusia and offshore Brevard waters at 2PM Tuesday, expanding to include the nearshore Brevard waters at 5PM and offshore Treasure Coast waters at 8PM. High pressure builds across the waters mid week with generally favorable boating conditions returning by Thursday. Increasing moisture with the front will promote rounds of showers and isolated storms across the waters Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, gradually drying on Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated to persist through at least tonight. West-northwest winds persist at the terminals, generally around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible at times. Along the coast, winds are anticipated to become more southeasterly this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Tonight, winds are forecast to become light and variable. Tomorrow, a front approaches the Florida peninsula, with increasing rain and storm chances forecast. Winds become more northeasterly around 10 knots. Have added -SHRA and VCTS mention at DAB after 15Z, SFB after 17Z, and MCO after 18Z. Too early to add in TEMPOs for VIS and CIG reductions, but they may be needed once timing becomes clearer. MVFR CIGs forecast at DAB after 15Z as activity begins. Activity is anticipated to expand southward through the day tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions remain forecast across much of east central Florida this afternoon, and a very dry airmass will promote minRH values ranging 25-40 percent. Although locally gusty at times, sustained west winds should mostly remain below 15 mph. Moisture gradually returns from north to south Tuesday as a cold front approaches the area. The front then stalls and washes out mid week, keeping minRH values above critical values from Wednesday onward. Patchy fog is possible tonight and into early Tuesday morning, primarily south of a line from Clermont/ Orlando/ Melbourne.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 77 64 75 / 0 60 60 50 MCO 60 83 66 77 / 0 50 30 50 MLB 58 80 64 78 / 0 30 40 60 VRB 55 81 63 79 / 0 10 30 50 LEE 60 79 64 79 / 0 50 30 40 SFB 60 81 64 78 / 0 50 40 50 ORL 61 82 65 79 / 0 50 30 50 FPR 54 82 61 80 / 0 10 30 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ575.