textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches today. Rough surf will exist due to persistent onshore winds. Please stay out of the ocean.

- Warm overnight temperatures continue, with morning lows in the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.

- Increasing coverage of showers and storms area-wide from Thursday through the weekend. While beneficial to the ongoing drought, areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain will need to be monitored for flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Rest of Today-Wednesday...Deep ridging continues off of the Southeast US coast through Wednesday. While the ridge axis will drift slightly southward through the period, it will remain north of the forecast area, maintaining onshore flow. Southeast winds will continue to enhance to 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze into Wednesday, with gusts 20-25 mph, especially along the coast. Onshore flow will keep the highest shower and storm chances over the interior, which today looks to be west of Orlando (40-60%) along the sea breeze collision. Isolated to scattered showers will then remain possible along the coast once again overnight (20-30%). Morning showers then transition inland once again into Wednesday afternoon (40-60%). Showers and storms along the sea breeze collision near to just west of Orlando are forecast to linger through much of the evening hours today and Wednesday.

Dry air aloft will maintain DCAPE values near 1000-1100 J/kg and, therefore, the risk for a few strong storms along the collision. However, warmer temperatures aloft (-4 to -5C at 500mb) are not supportive of favorable lapse rates. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s persist. Onshore flow will continue to threaten warm minimum temperature daily (or even monthly) records along the coast, where temperatures will struggle to fall out of the lower 80s and into the upper 70s.

Thursday-Tuesday...A trough moving through the northeastern US pushes the ridge southward Thursday, positioning the ridge axis across the southern Florida peninsula by late in the day. Increasingly south to southwesterly flow will result, finally putting an end to the onshore flow regime and favoring a more central or even eastward sea breeze collision into the weekend. At the same time, deep, tropical moisture (PWATs 2"+) overspreads the area, leading to PoPs near 80% area-wide to end the week. While some drying is expected for the weekend, ample moisture for daily showers and storms is forecast to continue into early next week, aided by passing shortwaves aloft and a weak surface boundary. Thus, high coverage of afternoon showers and storms looks to continue through the period (70-80%), despite model differences early next week. Multiple rounds of rainfall will aid ongoing drought conditions, but will need to monitor for repeated bouts of heavy rainfall over the same areas, which could lead to flooding. Near normal temperatures are forecast, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, even with shower and storm coverage. Overnight lows remain in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

A fresh onshore breeze will continue to produce somewhat unfavorable boating conditions into Wednesday. High pressure then moves south of the local waters and weakens into late week, leading to offshore flow through the weekend and winds 10-15 kts or less. Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms continue over the local waters through mid-week, mainly overnight, as most convection remains over the interior of the peninsula. Thursday onward, increasing coverage of offshore-moving showers and storms is forecast, as moisture increases. Seas 4-5 ft into Wednesday diminish to 1-3 ft for the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Quick moving showers are observed in vicinity of the interior terminals this afternoon, but deeper convection and chances for lightning primarily reside west of the Orlando area. Therefore, mention of VCTS remains limited to LEE within the 18Z TAF. Southeast winds will remain breezy today, with gusts observed between 20-25 kts at most sites (locally higher along the Treasure Coast). Winds settle around 5 kts across the interior overnight, subsiding to 8-12 kts along the coast. Chances for showers/storms increase slightly across the interior Wednesday afternoon. VFR outside of convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 90 74 88 / 20 50 20 80 MCO 74 91 74 89 / 30 50 40 80 MLB 79 89 77 88 / 30 30 10 80 VRB 78 89 76 89 / 30 30 20 80 LEE 75 91 75 88 / 50 60 60 80 SFB 76 92 74 90 / 20 60 30 80 ORL 76 91 75 89 / 30 50 40 80 FPR 77 89 75 89 / 30 30 20 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.