textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

- Pleasant conditions this weekend with slightly above-normal temperatures, followed by a cold front late Sunday into Monday that brings breezy conditions and a chance for showers

- Deteriorating marine conditions are forecast starting on Sunday night due to increasing winds and seas ahead of a cold front, with conditions anticipated to improve mid to late week

- At least a moderate risk of rip currents will continue at all local area beaches this weekend and early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

Tonight-Sunday...High pressure will remain situated across the southeastern U.S. tonight into Sunday, slowly drifting eastward. Locally, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail, with no mentionable rain chances in the forecast through Sunday. Light northeasterly winds continue tonight, becoming calm in some spots. These lighter winds along with mostly clear skies overnight will lead to favorable conditions for fog development, particularly across the interior of east central Florida. Any fog that does manage to develop is forecast to diminish near to shortly after sunrise on Sunday. Temperatures overnight are forecast to fall into the 50s, though the Treasure Coast will likely only fall into the 60s. Northeasterly winds and sunny skies persist into Sunday, with temperatures reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. By Sunday night, a cold front is forecast to begin its approach towards the Florida peninsula, though there is low confidence on any shower development out ahead of the front. Winds pick up slightly ahead of the front, remaining out of the northeast. Lows on Sunday will be similar to tonight, with most areas falling into the 50s and areas near the Treasure Coast remaining in the 60s.

Monday-Tuesday...The cold front will continue southward across the Florida peninsula on Monday, with an area of high pressure once again settling across the southeastern U.S. early next week. Northeasterly winds persist locally, though wind speeds will tick up slightly to around 10 to 15 mph areawide. Gusts to 25 mph will be possible, especially along the coast on Monday. This prevailing northeasterly flow will likely favor some marine shower development, with some model discrepancy on whether these showers will move onshore. The GFS maintains a drier solution across the local area, with the Euro favoring slightly better chances for some isolated activity moving onshore. Stuck with the NBM as a good middle-of-the- road solution, which shows development across the waters but not necessarily making it onshore. Would not be surprised if the guidance trends towards some isolated activity moving onshore on Monday, primarily south of the Cape. By Tuesday, dry conditions are anticipated across east central Florida and the local waters, with winds becoming more easterly as the surface high slides eastward just north of the area.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs each day in the 70s. Monday night lows only fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s, cooling into the 50s across most of the area and the low 60s along the immediate Treasure Coast on Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Friday (previous)...Wednesday promises drier weather overall as the H5 ridge axis progresses eastward across the Gulf/central CONUS. By Thursday, guidance is picking up on a residual frontal boundary and very weak shortwave energy rounding the eastern periphery of the H5 ridge, heading toward the ECFL coast. This is a bit of a change from 24 hours ago or so. Mentionable rain chances were not included at this time, but enough low-level moisture and forcing could reintroduce coastal showers late Wednesday through Christmas Day. By week's end, less model agreement exists with the overall synoptic pattern. Nevertheless, dry weather looks to prevail with the influence of high pressure overhead.

Temperatures through the holiday week will be pleasant and largely unchanged from day to day, ranging from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees (south). Overnight lows fall into the 50s for most locations mid to late week. In general, H5 height anomalies are hinting at a warmer Christmas Day for the central and southern U.S. this year.

MARINE

Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

High pressure across the southeastern U.S. will keep boating conditions generally favorable through the remainder of this weekend. North to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are forecast along with seas of 3 to 5 feet. Rain is not forecast through Sunday.

By Sunday night, a cold front will begin its approach towards the area, moving southward across the local Atlantic waters on Monday. Northeast winds begin increasing out ahead of the front on Sunday night, peaking at 15 to 25 knots behind the front on Monday. In response, seas are anticipated to increase to 6 to 10 feet. Small Craft Advisories will likely be issued for these hazardous boating conditions. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers will be possible on Monday behind the front as a result of the persistent, breezy northeast flow. By Tuesday, winds subside and veer to out of the east as high pressure situates itself north of the Florida peninsula. Seas respond by gradually subsiding late Tuesday, with a return to generally favorable boating conditions anticipated towards the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 643 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

A few light showers south of SUA tonight. Otherwise, conditions remain mostly dry. Monitoring low probabilities for fog overnight, primarily across the interior. At this time, confidence remains too low to include in the TAF. Light north-northeast winds tonight shift further northeast tomorrow, increasing to around 8-10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 54 74 57 74 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 57 79 58 77 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 61 77 63 76 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 61 79 64 77 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 52 77 54 75 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 54 78 57 76 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 56 78 58 76 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 61 79 64 77 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.