textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through this week. The main storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that has the potential to lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise, the potential exists for frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph - Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue with peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is High risk for dangerous rip currents today at the east central Florida beaches. Remember to always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows scattered generally west-northwest moving showers and lightning storms across east central Florida (mainly along and south of I-4). GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Temperatures are currently in the mid 80s to low 90s, heat index values are between 100F-108F degrees, and dew points are between the mid 70s to around 80F degrees. Analysis charts show a stationary boundary over east central Florida with higher moisture to the south of the boundary with PWATs up to 2.2." Additionally, the 15Z XMR sounding shows MLCAPE at 2,524 J/kg, PWAT at 2.28", MidRH at 85%, LowRH 87%, relatively warm 500mb temperatures at -3.6C, and 0-6km shear at 23kts with an MDP value of 1.1.

Coverage of showers and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage late this afternoon and evening as collisions occur between easterly flow, the west coast sea breeze over the western interior of central Florida, and outflow from previous storms. Rain chances are forecast to gradually diminish around 8PM. Isolated onshore moving showers/lightning storms are forecast tonight and into the overnight. Conditions are favorable for a strong storm capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3" in 60 minutes). Near to above normal (~1-4F+ degrees) low temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees are forecast.

Thursday-Friday... The weather pattern is expected to transition to a more typical sea breeze driven pattern Thursday into Friday as the Bermuda high builds west over the western Atlantic waters and the stationary boundary "washes out" over east central Florida. South-southeast winds at 5-10mph on Thursday will veer offshore Thursday night before backing onshore into Friday afternoon as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. Scattered to numerous showers (40-70% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop each afternoon with the greatest coverage along and near I-4 where the greatest surface convergence is forecast. Guidance shows a typical environment for sea breeze driven showers and lightning storms with high instability, low shear, and plentiful moisture. However, guidance shows 500mb PVA pivoting across east central Florida on Friday which suggests that there is greater potential for strong storms on Friday than what we have seen in more recent days. The primary hazards with a strong storm or two on Thursday and a couple to a few strong storms on Friday are frequent (frequent to excessive lightning on Friday), wind gusts up to 40-50mph (<5% chance of wind gusts up to 60mph on Friday), and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3" in 60 minutes). Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values up to 102F-107F are forecast. Above normal lows (~1-4+ degrees) in the low to upper 70s are forecast. There is a Moderate HeatRisk with pockets of Major HeatRisk on Thursday and Friday. A Moderate HeatRisk affects those sensitive to heat and a Major HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

Saturday-Tuesday... The active weather pattern is expected to continue over the weekend and into next week. The western fringe of the Bermuda high is forecast to become established over the local Atlantic waters, as well as high pressure over the eastern Gulf on Monday. Scattered to numerous/widespread showers (between 50-80% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop each day in the afternoon and evening before rain chances diminish into the late evening, as well as overnight hours. High instability with weak shear and sufficient moisture is forecast which is conducive for isolated to scattered strong storms capable of frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. There is a up to 20-70% chance of a Major HeatRisk for areas of east central Florida Saturday to Monday with lower chances on Tuesday (up to 20-50% chance).

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Currently-Thursday... Favorable boating conditions are expected with onshore flow in place. Scattered to numerous generally onshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast with the greatest coverage in the morning and afternoon. The potential exists for an isolated strong storm capable of wind gusts of 34kts or greater. East-southeast winds at 6-12kts are expected. Seas to 1-3ft with up to 4 ft mainly over the offshore waters and Gulf Stream (up to 5ft over the offshore Volusia and northern Brevard county waters) are expected.

Friday-Sunday... The western fringe of the Bermuda high is expected to build west over the western Atlantic waters Friday and into the weekend. Therefore, a return to a more typical sea breeze driven shower and lightning storm pattern is expected. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast each day with the greatest potential in the mid morning to afternoon hours. Storm motions are expected to vary from onshore to offshore. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts of 34kts or greater.Generally, south-southwest winds at 5-10kts are forecast to back south-southeast into each afternoon. Seas to 1-2ft are forecast (up to 3ft in the Gulf Stream on Friday and the offshore Volusia county waters on Sunday).

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 740 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Continued VCTS at inland terminals through 01Z, with a tempo group for MVFR cig/vis in TSRA at KSFB as a redeveloping round of isolated showers and storms continues to the northwest. This activity should diminish into this evening, and then isolated onshore moving showers and possibly a storm or two are forecast overnight, mainly south of the Cape. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will again develop into the afternoon and for now have VCTS starting at 18Z for coastal TAF sites and 19Z inland. Sea breeze collision looks to occur near to west of KMCO tomorrow, which may continue some showers and storms into tomorrow evening across the interior. Light and variable winds into tonight, with winds picking up out of the east-southeast around 8-10 knots Thursday afternoon behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 90 75 91 / 20 60 20 70 MCO 76 92 76 93 / 20 70 20 70 MLB 78 90 77 91 / 20 40 20 50 VRB 77 90 75 90 / 20 40 20 50 LEE 76 92 76 91 / 30 60 30 70 SFB 76 92 76 92 / 20 70 20 70 ORL 76 92 77 92 / 20 70 20 70 FPR 76 89 75 90 / 20 50 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.