textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov.

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today where peak heat index values are forecast to reach up to 109F.

- Building dry air will reduce rain chances through the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Today-Thursday... Noticeably lower rain chances are forecast mid week as waves of drier air pass through the mid levels. Isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms today (10-30%) trend mostly dry on Thursday. However, there is low confidence in an isolated shower (~20%) near and north of the Orlando metro Thursday where a thin ribbon of deeper moisture may be present. As rain chances are reduced, the greatest forecast emphasis shifts towards a period of increasing heat as high pressure builds over the region. Above normal temperatures will be greatest across interior areas near and north of I-4 each day ranging the mid to upper 90s today, and more widely spreading the upper 90s by Thursday. Across the southern interior, highs mostly range the mid 90s with low to mid 90s spreading the coast. Peak heat index values are forecast to top out around 105-107F across the north today, but higher peak heat index values up to 109F are forecast across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today. Cannot rule out additional Heat Advisories across portions of east central Florida on Thursday. Warm conditions will persist after sunset and into the evenings with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s through midnight. Overnight lows mostly range the mid to upper 70s.

Friday-Tuesday... High pressure continues to control the local weather pattern, keeping a period of above normal temperatures through the weekend. Expect only small variations in afternoon highs each day with the hottest conditions persisting across interior regions near and north of I-4 (upper 90s) through at least Saturday. Elsewhere, mid 90s continue with a few areas of low 90s along portions of the immediate coast. The abnormally hot pattern begins to slowly breakdown early next week as a mid to upper level trough digs into the eastern U.S., and highs are nudged closer to normal values by Tuesday. Heat index values exceeding 108F will continue to be monitored with the potential for Heat Advisories across portions of the area into the back half of the week. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock!

Despite surges of locally higher PWATs, model soundings suggest a layer of drier air continuing through the mid levels. This should generally help to suppress rain chances again on Friday, and NBM PoPs have trended down over the last few forecast packages, now showing only a 20-30% PoP in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. By Saturday a weak mid level disturbance lifts across south Florida, weakening as it approaches portions of central Florida. Currently keeping NBM PoPs (30-60%) Saturday with the highest coverage south, but will note high uncertainty as global ensemble members show high spread. A better chance to see scattered showers and storms could be by early next week as the influence of high pressure begins to break down aloft.

MARINE

Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

An axis of high pressure over the local Atlantic waters will maintain southerly winds and favorable boating conditions. Light south to southwest winds shift south to southeast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Late afternoon and evening winds may increase to 14-18 kts over the open Atlantic (generally north of the Cape). Seas hold mostly 2-3 ft through late week, occasionally building to 4 ft well offshore north of the Cape. Drier air will keep lower rain chances across the local waters the next few days with isolated to scattered showers and storms returning this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning storms. TAFs begin with light and variable winds. Winds will increase from the SW at 5-10kts before backing SE at the coastal TAF sites into the afternoon and evening at 6-12kts. VCTS is forecast at KDAB after 18Z and at the Orlando Metro TAF sites after 20Z before showers and lightning storms diminish by around 01Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week:

Site July 8 July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 98 (1981) 97 (2022) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 98 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (1969) 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 100 (1908) 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 97 (1998) 96 (2023) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 98 (2024) 96 (2024) 97 (2022) 96 (2020) Fort Pierce 97 (2024) 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 77 95 77 / 30 20 20 0 MCO 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 10 0 MLB 92 78 93 78 / 20 10 0 0 VRB 92 77 93 77 / 10 10 0 0 LEE 95 79 96 80 / 20 10 10 0 SFB 96 78 97 78 / 30 30 20 0 ORL 95 79 96 79 / 30 30 20 0 FPR 92 76 92 76 / 10 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-164-254-259-264.

AM...None.