textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 221 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Patchy fog possible late tonight through early Tuesday morning.

- Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will push quickly northeast across the area on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front, with dry conditions then forecast mid to late week behind the front. - Poor to hazardous boating conditions forecast tonight into Tuesday ahead of the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tonight-Tuesday...Stalled boundary across north central Florida lifts northward into tonight as developing low pressure near the northern Gulf coast shifts northeast across the southeast United States. Low level winds will strengthen as they veer from the E/SE this evening to more southerly overnight. The opportunity for a coastal few showers will continue through the evening as winds remain onshore, mainly from the Cape southward. Otherwise, it will be mostly dry tonight. Increasing boundary layer winds will mostly favor low stratus development overnight, but may still see some patchy fog form late tonight through early morning Tuesday.

As low lifts northeast tomorrow, moisture will rise with PW values reaching 1.7-1.8 inches. Scattered showers will develop and move quickly northeast across the region, mainly from late morning into the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain chances will range from 40-50 percent from Osceola/Brevard counties northward and 20-30 percent across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Despite SBCAPE being somewhat limited, around or just under 500 J/kg, isolated storms will also be possible. Any storms that can develop will have the potential to produce strong gusty winds up to 40-55 mph, as SW wind fields between 925-500mb increase to around 30-45 knots north of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County. However, even outside of any storms it will be breezy to windy tomorrow, as SW surface winds increase to around 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs several degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s.

Showers and any storms are forecast to push offshore by early evening, with drier conditions into the late evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night as cold front crosses the area. West winds weaken after sunset to 5-10 mph and gradually become N/NW overnight, with temperatures falling into the 60s most areas, except mid to upper 50s northwest of I-4 by daybreak Wednesday.

Wednesday-Friday...High pressure across the southeast U.S. that builds in behind the front midweek will weaken as another stronger area of high pressure builds down into the central U.S. Thursday. Surface winds will remain northerly behind the front Wednesday, which will continue to transport cooler/drier air down into central FL, with winds then gradually veering onshore into late week. Rain chances remain out of the forecast through the period. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal Wednesday, before a warming trend once again takes hold. Highs on Wednesday will range from the low to mid 70s from Osceola/Brevard counties northward and upper 70s to near 80 degrees across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Highs then climb into late week, eventually reaching the low 80s for most locations on Friday. Coolest temperatures will occur into Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, with lows in the 50s, except upper 40s northwest of I-4. Overnight lows will then recover back into the low to mid 60s into Friday night.

Saturday-Monday...Another weak low will develop near the northern Gulf Coast along a stalled front Friday before shifting quickly east- northeast just north of central FL Friday night. This will shift another front toward and eventually through the region. However, there remains significant differences in the frontal passage timing between the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, with the ECMWF faster and pushing it through late Saturday/Saturday night and the GFS stalling the boundary across north FL and eventually shifting it southward into Sunday night/early Monday. Either way rain chances will at least be on the rise into Saturday (up to 20-40 percent across the area), and then the forecast keeps some low end rain chances (around 20 percent) for now into Sunday and Monday due to some of the guidance slower with the frontal passage. Highs look to remain above normal in upper 70s/low 80s Saturday. Then depending on frontal passage are forecast to fall back into the 70s with lows in the 50s behind the front.

MARINE

Issued at 221 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tonight-Tuesday...Low pressure lifts northeast from the northern Gulf coast across the southeastern U.S. late tonight into early Tuesday dragging a front toward the area. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will develop into tonight and Tuesday, with east- southeast winds increasing as they veer to the south to southwest Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase to 15-25 knots, with seas building to 5-7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) initially goes into effect over the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard counties late tonight. The SCA then expands to the nearshore waters of Volusia County and offshore Treasure Coast waters at 7 AM Tuesday, while small craft should exercise caution elsewhere. The SCA will then remain in effect from late afternoon into the evening Tuesday for the offshore waters of Volusia/Brevard counties as W/SW winds gradually decrease. Winds then become N/NW overnight Tuesday night as front moves through the waters, with speeds decreasing to 10-15 knots by daybreak Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered showers as well as a few storms will continue to be possible across the waters tonight into early Tuesday, with scattered showers and isolated storms pushing quickly northeastward and offshore, mainly during the afternoon. Some lingering showers will then persist offshore as front moves through Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Saturday...Boating conditions forecast to remain favorable mid to late week, as winds speeds remain below 15 knots and seas fall to 3-5 feet Wed to 3-4 feet Thu-Fri. Winds will be out of the north Wed and then veer onshore into late week. Another front will approach the area Sat, with boating conditions deteriorating. Southwest winds increase up to 15-20 knots offshore with seas building to 3-5 feet.

It is forecast to remain dry mid to late week, with rain chances increasing into Saturday ahead of the approaching front.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 640 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A few models continue to suggest MVFR/IFR reductions overnight for interior locations including MCO and SFB. However, this is low confidence, as other models maintain VFR through the period. Adding to the lower than average confidence is that the same models inaccurately predicted reductions for the same locations early this morning. Thus, have maintained a mention of SCT008 CIGs over the interior after midnight tonight. While guidance (such as the LAV) also reduces VIS, winds just above the surface are forecast to be elevated (20-25 kts) overnight. So, should anything form, it is likely to remain stratus, rather than FG.

Otherwise, a cold front is expected to pass southward through the Florida peninsula Tuesday, bringing gusty winds and a chance for showers and storms. Southerly winds overnight will become southwesterly into Tuesday morning and increase to 14-18 kts, with gusts up to around 20-25 kts. Have included VCTS for most TAF locations late Tuesday morning into the afternoon as a line of showers and embedded storms passes through, with a few SH lingering behind the front itself through sunset. However, the boundary is expected to weaken through the day, so have only mentioned VCSH along the Treasure Coast. Lighter northerly winds and dry conditions after 0Z Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 65 81 57 70 / 10 40 10 0 MCO 67 81 62 74 / 10 40 10 0 MLB 67 82 63 75 / 20 40 10 0 VRB 67 83 63 77 / 20 30 10 0 LEE 65 80 57 70 / 10 50 10 0 SFB 66 81 60 72 / 10 40 10 0 ORL 66 81 60 72 / 10 40 10 0 FPR 66 83 63 78 / 20 30 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550- 575.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570- 572.