textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- An elevated fire danger exists across the area. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from Brevard and Osceola counties northward thru 8PM.

- Record setting heat and dry conditions forecast this afternoon, with highs reaching the mid-90s across much of the area.

- Rain chances return Friday into the weekend, with highs remaining above normal and peak heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s to around 100F (locally) for much of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Current-Tonight...Primary weather concern revolves around the record heat and dry conditions, as well as heightened fire sensitivity. A surface-based high pressure ridge axis has relocated south/east from ECFL with the approach of a weak front that will press south into north-central FL overnight and into central FL early Fri morning. The location of the ridge axis has allowed for winds to veer to SW/W with sustained speeds up to 10-15 mph and higher gusts (20-25 mph). As for the ECSB, it will be delayed and may only develop from near the Cape southward, with limited movement inland late today. As such, afternoon temps are forecast to soar into the M90s (nearly areawide), including the coast, with a few U90s within reach. Daily max records are forecast to be tied/broken at many of our climate sites. See Climate section below.

Temperatures remain warm and well above climo (as much as 10 degrees) overnight as moisture slowly deepens with approach of the aforementioned front. Mins forecast in the U60s to M70s.

With the approaching boundary, cloud ceilings (low stratus) are forecast to lower after midnight toward sunrise across the I-4 corridor, possibly as far south as Titusville and Melbourne near daybreak Fri morning. There will be a decaying area of convection dropping southward overnight, and a few showers may clip portions of north Lake/north Volusia counties early Fri morning and we have added a small PoP (15-20%) here to cover for it. Have managed to keep fog out of the forecast, but we should monitor southern Osceola thru Okeechobee County for some potential patchy fog here late overnight/early Fri morning.

Residents and visitors sensitive to heat should take precautions for these well above normal temperatures. Remember, NEVER leave children or pets in cars for any period of time. The increasing heat, as well as dry and gusty conditions today will lead to an elevated fire weather danger this afternoon and early evening.

Fri-Sun...The weak front will slide south into central FL early Fri morning, becoming nearly stationary, then lifting back north Fri night/Sat. Low clouds, near Melbourne northward could be slow to burn off during the morning. Also, would not be surprised to witness some light shower activity (1-4 corridor) during the morning. Moisture does surge ahead/along this boundary and we will see daily sea breeze formation and collisions across the central FL peninsula on Fri, and more towards the eastern FL peninsula side Sat/Sun. We forecast 20-50% PoPs Fri aftn/eve for far north Okeechobee County toward Melbourne northward. On Sat, 20-40% PoPs forecast from generally along the Treasure Coast northward in the aftn/eve (highest Volusia), with far western reaches of ECFL toward the Kissimmee River & western Lake County left out. For Sun 20-40% PoPs nearly areawide. Storm steering is out of the west so convection could move back toward the coast each evening. Lingering dry air aloft will continue the potential for ISOLD strong (marginally severe) storms each day, producing frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds up to 40-50 mph - perhaps one or two storms to 60 mph, and small hail. Some storms may also produce locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches in a short-period of time. Another concern will be for the potential for fire-starts from lightning strikes, esp away from the main precip core.

Additional cloud-cover and earlier initiation and deeper inland movement of the sea breeze will limit continued (already) above normal temps. Generally U80s (coast) to L90s on Fri for maxes, widespread L90s on Sat/Sun and cannot rule out a few M90s as well. The above normal temperatures and increasing relative humidity will produce widespread peak heat indices in the M-U90s (up to 100 degrees locally) and promote HeatRisk categories to Moderate and locally Major.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...

Mon-Wed...Mid/upper level trough moves through the eastern U.S., pushing a weakening cold front toward and eventually through the area early next week. Current projections from model guidance has this boundary moving through Mon night, with scattered showers and storms developing ahead of the front Mon and pushing offshore, with rain chances increasing up to 40-60%. Increasing W/SW winds aloft may lead to some stronger storm development Mon afternoon, with the main threats including frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. High pressure pushing off the Mid- Atlantic coast will switch winds quickly onshore behind the front on Tue, with lingering moisture leading to low end rain chances (20- 40%) mostly along portions of the coast into Tue. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are then forecast into the middle of next week.

Increasing cloud cover and rain chances ahead of the front will lower max temps slightly on Mon, but still forecast near to above normal in the U80s-L90s. Highs are forecast to drop slightly to more seasonable values in the 80s behind the front into Tue-Wed.

MARINE

Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Current-Tonight...The low-level high pressure ridge axis has slipped south of the local waters as a weak front approaches late tonight and early Fri. Generally southerly winds 10-15 kts becoming more SE along the immediate coast this aftn as the sea breeze develops but remains fairly close to the coast. Models hint at a brief wind surge offshore late today into tonight 15-20 kts before backing down to 10-15 kts late as winds veer west, then WNW ahead of daybreak. Generally dry conditions continue with seas 2-3 ft.

Fri-Mon...The weak front may slip into our northern waters early Fri morning, possibly as far south as the Cape and cannot rule out ISOLD showers with it. This feature will become nearly stationary, briefly, before lifting back north Fri night/Sat. Sea breeze collisions over the peninsula each day may send convection (ISOLD/SCT) back toward the coast each evening, esp Cape northward as moisture surges across the region in association with the front. A few strong storms will be possible.

Otherwise, boating conditions continue to be mostly favorable. There will be some variability in the winds thru the remainder of the extended with onshore flow each aftn with the sea breeze, then some offshore potential each night. Any convection will temporarily alter wind fields from time to time. Wind speeds generally 10-15 knots, but may increase to 15-20 knots offshore briefly during the late afternoon/evening hours, again, on Sat/Sun. Seas typically 2-3 ft but could build to 4 ft surrounding wind surges and may be locally higher invof showers/storms.

Another weak front is forecast to push southward through the waters into early next week, with SCT showers and storms (some strong) developing ahead of the front and pushing offshore. Winds are forecast to become SW Mon at 10-15 knots (pre-frontal), then N/NW Mon night (post-frontal). Seas continue 2-4 ft.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

East coast sea breeze has formed and will produce a SE wind shift at MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA btwn 18Z-20Z. Elsewhere, including MCO, breezy/gusty SW winds 12G20KTS will continue this aftn. A cold front will push south into northern sections early Fri bringing MVFR CIGs at LEE/DAB/SFB/MCO aft 07Z. Some of these terminals will be slow to return to VFR. Have inserted a VCTS for MCO aft 20Z as a NE sea breeze pushing inland interacts with the slowing front draped across central FL.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions will exist this afternoon and early evening as record highs in the mid 90s and dry conditions produce Min RH values as low as the upper 20s to mid 30s for much of the area. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from Osceola and Brevard counties northward where critically low RH and gusty west to southwest winds around 15 mph are forecast to coincide. While near to critically low RH is also forecast farther south, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below 15 mph. This will still lead to sensitive fire weather conditions across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. The east coast sea breeze will likely form near to south of the Cape with limited inland movement, but will be delayed, switching winds to the southeast. This will keep Min RH values just above critical values along the immediate coast where the sea breeze is able to form. Dispersion will be Very Good to Excellent this afternoon, which may lead to control issues. Dispersion will fall back to Fair to Generally Good on Friday and Very Good to Excellent again on Saturday.

A weak front pushes into the north central Florida on Friday before lifting northward into the weekend. This will increase moisture, keeping RH values above critical values, but will also help generate isolated to scattered lightning storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours from late week into this weekend and early next week. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe. However, there could be some light rain showers early Friday morning north of I-4 in association with the boundary.

Also, low stratus clouds are forecast to be associated with the front and dip as far south as Melbourne, with a slow burn-off of these low clouds Friday morning. Widespread fog is not forecast. However, we should monitor southern Osceola thru Okeechobee County for some potential patchy fog here late overnight/early Fri morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for today, Thursday, May 7th:

Site May 7 Daytona 93 (1952) Leesburg 94 (1984) Sanford 94 (2009) Orlando 98 (1915) Melbourne 91 (1980) Vero Beach 93 (1947) Fort Pierce 95 (1906)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 86 74 91 / 0 40 20 40 MCO 73 93 75 94 / 0 40 20 20 MLB 73 88 78 92 / 0 10 10 20 VRB 70 90 76 93 / 0 0 10 20 LEE 73 91 74 93 / 10 40 10 10 SFB 73 92 73 95 / 0 40 10 30 ORL 74 92 75 94 / 0 40 10 20 FPR 69 90 75 94 / 0 0 0 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046- 053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.