textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 247 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast: Avoid flooded roads, and do not walk or wade through floodwater!

- Isolated showers today over the Treasure coast counties late this morning into the afternoon with additional showers across the north late in the day. High temperatures will remain very warm today reaching the mid 80s. A cool front will push through Saturday and bring somewhat cooler temperatures.

- Excessive rainfall over the upper St Johns River basin earlier this week is sending a considerable volume of water north through the basin. A prolonged river flood event is ongoing along the Saint Johns River with conditions likely worsening before improvement occurs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Today...A stationary front across the FL panhandle will begin to push SE today. Ahead of the front moisture increases slightly with HRRR and RRFS models showing isolated showers developing first across the Treasure coast counties late this morning into the afternoon. Then additional showers develop across northern sections later in the day. Brief downpours will be possible in a few areas but accumulations will be less than 0.25". Warm again with above normal temperatures reaching the mid 80s with light winds, turning onshore up to 10 mph behind the sea breeze.

Non-tropical low pressure east of the Bahamas is sending additional swells toward the FL east coast. Buoy 009 is showing an uptick in swell height and period which will produce a High risk of rip currents at all central FL Atlc beaches today. This High risk will extend into the weekend and probably early next week.

Sat-Thu...The cool front is forecast to cross central Florida Saturday. Limited moisture along the boundary itself means it will likely be a dry frontal passage. A wind shift out of the N/NW will announce its passage. Winds gradually veer N/NE Sun and Mon as high pressure builds in behind this boundary. GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement showing a weaker mid-level S/W trough moving across the deep South, but timing differences remain on when it crosses Florida into next week. The GFS is the faster of the two, increasing rainfall across the area Wednesday with the ECMWF holding off better rainfall potential until Wednesday night/ Thursday. Rain chances for the time being remain out of the forecast Sunday with only low rain chances (10-20%) for much of the region Mon-Wed with scattered (30%) showers Thu. Given the weakening upper support, severe weather looks unlikely with this mid week system. Temperatures trend cooler this weekend behind the front though Sat still looks warm in the low to mid 80s. Near normal highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s Sun-Wed; a little cooler Thu with more clouds and showers. Min temps forecast in the upper 50s NW of I-4 next week with 60s elsewhere.

MARINE

Issued at 247 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Light and variable winds this morning in vicinity of the Atlc ridge axis nosing SW across the area. A weak front will push SE across north FL today and across central FL and adjacent waters Saturday. Winds will switch to the N/NW and increase to 10-15 knots behind the front Sat then veer to the NNE on Sunday and Mon as high pressure builds in behind the boundary, with speeds remaining around 10-15 knots. Seas 3-5 feet today primarily due to swell then the combination of wind wave and swell will produce poor boating conditions, especially offshore as seas are forecast to build to 4-6 feet this weekend into early next week. While it should remain mostly dry over the next several days, isolated showers are forecast today and tonight ahead of the cool front. Mainly dry this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1241 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. The afternoon cu- field has occasionally become more BKN/MVFR at times. A line of SH over the Atlantic waters has slide onshore KVRB-KSUA at times, also producing brief VIS/CIG reductions and necessitating a few short-fused TEMPOs. Additional ISO SHRA are possible along weak inland moving east and west coast sea breezes, and could become ISO-SCT after 22Z INVOF of KMCO and other inland terminals on a weak sea breeze collision, then drifting back towards the east coast through the late evening and into the early overnight. Winds are generally light/VRB even behind the sea breezes until a mostly dry cool front pushes into ECFL tonight-Saturday, shifting northerly 5-10 kts behind the front. There is potential for IFR CIGs to develop at the inland terminals late tonight into early Saturday ahead of the front, but guidance is not consistent enough for TEMPOs yet. Any IFR reductions that do develop should lift by 15Z, with very low chances for lingering MVFR ahead of the front. VFR expected behind the front.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 247 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

River flood warnings are in effect for all St Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise the next several days through Minor and in some cases Moderate Flood stage. The river at Cocoa (COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage later today or tonight with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage mid next week. River forecasts are issued twice per day by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 67 80 62 79 / 20 0 0 0 MCO 70 82 62 81 / 20 0 0 0 MLB 68 82 66 81 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 68 84 67 82 / 20 0 0 0 LEE 68 82 59 81 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 68 83 62 82 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 69 83 62 82 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 67 83 66 82 / 20 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.