textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 102 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through early this evening. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are forecast through tonight, with a 5-10% chance of 5 inches or more. Combined with saturated soils, this may cause sporadic instances of flash flooding. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roadways.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions persist due to rough seas and brisk easterly winds. 5-7 ft breakers and numerous, life- threatening rip currents are expected today at our beaches. Do not enter the ocean! Minor to moderate tidal flooding remains possible, mainly south of St Lucie Inlet.

- Rain chances gradually decrease from mid to late week, with high temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s each day. A more significant cold front may arrive in about a week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave trough axis near Florida this morning, with clear upper divergence ahead of the feature. Fresh onshore flow persists in the boundary layer, with Florida residing in a tight pressure gradient to the south of a surface high over the Mid-Atlantic. PWAT (total moisture) values are around 2 inches, which is well above early November norms. A well-defined MCV sits south of Orlando; it has enhanced the upward motion and deep moisture convergence over Central and South Florida during the last 12 to 18 hours. The overall setup will change little through today.

Later tonight and into Tuesday, the shortwave trough is expected to weaken as it nearly stalls over Florida. Gradually, the pressure gradient will start to relax on Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Still, above-normal moisture is forecast to remain situated over Florida through the middle of the week.

The global ensembles continue to track a pair of shortwaves in the subtropical jet over the Central U.S. later this week. The first one is forecast to reach the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday before quickly weakening as it runs into a ridge along the East Coast. The second feature, fast on its heels, passes north of Florida on Friday. A diffuse cold front may reach the state on Friday as it moves by. Little cold air advection is expected behind this front, and moisture levels only drop closer to seasonal averages.

Guidance favors a more significant pattern change beginning late this weekend into early next week. As ridging shifts to the Western U.S., ensemble means support a developing trough over the southern Mississippi Valley by Sunday. Cluster analysis of the 01/12Z guidance shows considerable spread in trough timing and amplitude. However, more than half of members support a cold front reaching the state around next Monday. Briefly, deeper moisture looks to be advected ahead of the front. H85 (5kft) temperatures are expected to fall below normal behind the boundary by next Tuesday (Nov 10th).

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Now - Tonight...

Bands of heavy rain and isolated lightning continue to develop early this morning along the coast from Brevard County northward, extending into Greater Orlando. As mentioned in the overview, the setup remains favorable for heavy rain and localized flooding through at least this morning, but hi-res guidance continues to disagree on how quickly the flooding threat will end later today. For this reason, we have opted to continue the Flood Watch for all of east central Florida through 7 pm.

This disturbance has already proven its ability to drop copious rainfall amounts, evidenced by the flash flooding that took place near Okeechobee and West Palm Beach on Sunday. Through tonight, an additional 1-3" of rain is forecast, with a 5-10% chance of additional amounts exceeding 5 inches. Exact placement of these heavy rain bands is difficult, and our available guidance has continued to struggle with the evolution of this event. Our soil saturation model shows greater than 80% saturation from Brevard County southward before exceeding 90-95% along the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee. These areas remain particularly vulnerable to flash flooding, as saturated soils have limited capacity to absorb additional rainfall, increasing the potential for rapid runoff and localized inundation.

Later this afternoon and into tonight, we expect rain coverage to drop somewhat, though moisture remains sufficient for locally heavy downpours through the night.

Finally, beach conditions remain hazardous. The High Surf Advisory will continue until early this evening for 5-7 ft breakers, and numerous life-threatening rip currents are likely. Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains possible, especially this afternoon during high tide south of St Lucie Inlet.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

As the disturbance responsible for all of this rain stalls over us and weakens, ample moisture will remain in place for a few showers and/or isolated storms. Coverage should range from 40-60% on Tuesday to 30-50% on Wednesday. Generally speaking, lighter amounts are forecast, which should limit excessive rainfall and flooding concerns. Easterly breezes will continue, though speeds and gusts will begin to relax a bit.

Some additional sunshine will allow high temps to bounce back into the low to mid 80s.

Thursday and beyond...

Deep-layer moisture continues to lessen later this week and into the weekend, limiting rain chances to 20% or less each day. Tranquil conditions will finally allow some drying to take place over all of Central Florida. High temps should remain warm in the low to mid 80s, but the slightly less humid air will mean cooler nights with 60s for most spots.

The next cold front may arrive around next Monday, bringing our next opportunity for showers and a few storms. Statistical guidance is keeping rain chances rather low, but these may increase once the guidance gets a better handle on timing and strength of the front. Depending on its strength, many models deliver some of the coolest air so far this autumn by next Tuesday and Wednesday, just beyond this forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 102 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Hazardous boating conditions continue. Fresh easterly flow in a tight pressure gradient over Florida continues to cause rough seas over the local Atlantic. Strong high pressure to the north will remain north of the waters early this week before gradually weakening by midweek. An upper-level disturbance will continue to spark scattered to numerous showers and a few storms through Tuesday. More tranquil conditions by mid to late week will improve boating conditions. A diffuse cold front is expected to reach the area late Friday into Saturday.

Small Craft Advisories continue through Tuesday morning for all of the Atlantic and extend into Tuesday night for the offshore waters. East winds 15-25 kts today, 15-20 kts on Tuesday, then 10-15 kts on Wednesday. Seas 6-9 ft today, 5-8 ft on Tuesday, and 5-6 feet by late Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 102 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

East winds 10-15 knots occasionally gusty along the coast with rounds of +SHRA and very isold TSRA overnight. An increase in E winds on Mon gusting 20-24 knots, including MCO which would produce some crosswind issues. MVFR-IFR impacts (with ocnl LIFR possible) will continue with this convection. Less coverage overnight across the southern terminals so handling that with PROB30 but redevelopment is forecast on Mon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 79 71 81 72 / 70 60 40 20 MCO 80 71 83 71 / 70 40 50 10 MLB 81 72 82 73 / 70 60 60 40 VRB 82 72 84 72 / 70 60 60 40 LEE 81 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 10 SFB 81 71 83 71 / 60 40 50 20 ORL 80 71 83 71 / 60 40 50 10 FPR 81 72 83 72 / 70 50 60 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141- 144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ575.