textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 154 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are forecast south of Cape Canaveral into this evening and will be capable of gusty winds from 50-60 mph and up to quarter-size hail.

- A strong cold front will pass through the area on Thursday night, with cooler temperatures from Friday into Saturday. Early morning wind chills are forecast in the lower to mid-40s.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. We are monitoring a low potential for heavy rainfall along the coast next week. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Rest of Today-Thursday...A mid-level disturbance located within the subtropical jet looks to move through north Florida into this evening. This feature, combined with PWATs in excess of 1.5", is forecast to produce scattered showers and storms south of Cape Canaveral over the next several hours. Isolated showers are beginning to develop over this area as of around 2 PM. A few storms could be strong to locally severe, with moderate deep-layer shear and 500 mb temperatures -10 to -11 C. The main threats will be gusty winds 50-60 mph and coin-sized hail. Convection is forecast to move offshore through the evening hours (PoPs 20-40%), with drier conditions by daybreak Thursday.

As high pressure washes out, a low over the northern US drifts eastward. A weak, initial cold front associated with this feature is expected to pass through east central Florida Thursday, helping to reduce rain chances. A low chance (20%) for showers and storms lingers along the southern Treasure Coast into the afternoon. Otherwise, PoPs remain below 10%. Westerly winds 10-15 mph could produce wind gusts near 20 mph at times. While not noticeably less humid, the front will help to return high temperatures to nearer to normal (the upper 70s to low 80s). Also, low temperatures fall into the upper 50s north of Orlando/Cape Canaveral Thursday night.

Friday-Saturday...An upper level low strengthens over the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, deepening the surface feature over the Northeast. Locally, a stronger cold front is forecast to pass southward through the peninsula Friday morning and into the afternoon, ushering in a much drier, cooler continental airmass. A few showers may accompany the frontal passage prior to sunrise Friday morning near and north of Orlando. Otherwise, PoPs remain below 10% through Saturday, as PWATs fall to 0.5" or less.

Northwesterly winds 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph, are expected Friday, helping to keep high temperatures in the lower to mid-70s. By Saturday, continued northerly winds will lead to well below normal high temperatures, only reaching the mid to upper 60s. Friday night looks to be the coolest night, before veering winds bring slightly warmer temperatures off of the Atlantic Saturday night. Lows in the mid to upper 40s for all but the Space and Treasure Coasts, combined with winds 5-10 mph, will lead to wind chills in the lower to mid-40s in the coldest spots early Saturday. By early Sunday, lows in the 50s, with upper 40s only north and west of I-4, improve wind chills into the mid to upper 40s over the interior.

Sunday-Early Next Week...Stout high pressure builds across the eastern half of the US on Sunday, veering winds onshore. Moisture begins to return to the area, though PoPs remain below 20%, and temperatures warm to nearer to normal to close out the weekend. Into early next week, models are in fairly good agreement that an upper level wave looks to undercut ridging to the north of Florida, pushing a disturbance eastward through the Gulf. However, they differ on timing, available moisture, and the strength of this feature. Will need to monitor the threat for locally heavy rainfall Monday into mid-week, due to lingering effects of last week's extreme rainfall, but it is too early to determine where or when heavy rainfall may occur. For now, there is slowly increasing confidence in a return of rain chances and an unsettled pattern next week, especially along the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 154 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

A disturbance aloft is forecast to spark scattered storms into this evening, generally south of Cape Canaveral. A few of these storms will be capable of gusty winds 45-50kts and hail as they move offshore. SW winds today become W into Thursday and increase to 10-15 kts. A cold front reaches the local waters by Thursday night. Behind it, winds freshen to 15-20 kts and turn northwesterly Friday then northerly into Saturday. Winds to near 25 kts will be possible offshore from Volusia County, mainly early Friday. Strong high pressure to the north of Florida will turn winds back onshore by Sunday. Poor to hazardous boating conditions by Thursday evening will linger at times into early next week, though conditions will at least be mostly dry. Seas 2-4 ft build to 4-6ft as winds strengthen.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions forecast through the period along with mostly dry weather at most east central Florida terminals. There is a low chance (20-30%) for some VCSH near SUA today, ending by 00Z. Westerly flow persists areawide through the period, ranging between 5 to 10 knots. No VIS or CIG reductions anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 154 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Fire weather conditions remain above critical thresholds through Thursday. Then, drier air filtering in behind a cold front is forecast to reduce min RH values to 40-45% from the Space Coast northward on Friday and 35-45% on Saturday. NW winds 10-15 mph Friday, with gusts to 20 mph, become N on Saturday. Moisture looks to return Sunday into early next week as winds become onshore.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 154 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

While a few storms may develop through this evening, widespread heavy rain is not forecast. There is a 10-20% chance of localized rainfall amounts exceeding 1/2" along the Space and Treasure Coasts. The next significant rain chance does not arrive until early next week. While it is far too early to determine whether the setup will be favorable for heavy rainfall, current guidance shows a low chance (10-15%) of greater than 2" along the coast early to mid next week, as onshore flow pulls moisture back over the area and a disturbance approaches from the west. We will continue to monitor this setup and any potential implications for ongoing flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 57 71 46 / 10 10 0 0 MCO 79 59 71 47 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 79 62 73 51 / 10 10 0 0 VRB 79 63 75 51 / 20 10 10 0 LEE 79 57 71 46 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 80 58 71 46 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 79 59 71 47 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 79 64 74 51 / 20 10 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.