textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 140 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Breezy, cool, and dry conditions are forecast across east central Florida as high pressure strengthens across the southeastern US.

- At our beaches, a strong southward-flowing longshore current and a moderate risk of rip currents will be present. Hazardous boating conditions also persist. Rough surf at the beaches will exist on Saturday due to the moderate onshore flow. - Turning warmer this weekend. Low to medium rain chances anticipated early next week as moisture increases and a front approaches the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Current-Tonight...Even under mostly sunny skies behind the latest cold front, a chilly day overall as temperatures struggle back into the 60s and with a breezy/gusty northerly wind - it feels even cooler. Fairly stout high pressure continues to build toward the Deep South and mid Atlc states and is partly responsible for the tight pressure gradient (lower pressures southward) allowing for the elevated winds. Gusts to 25 to 30 mph are occurring - typically highest along the coast. Dry air will continue to filter down the peninsula through tonight. Winds at 925 mb veer onshore early tonight and a little more slowly at the surface (along the coast) overnight. As such lows should realize M-U40s north/west of I-4, L50s southward toward Lake Okee, and M-U50s toward the coast, except L60s across barrier islands and immediate Treasure Coast.

The strong northerly winds will cause a southward-flowing longshore current within the surf zone, which poses a risk to those entering the ocean. A longshore current can pull swimmers into deeper water and potentially exposing them to dangerous rip currents. In addition to the longshore current, there is also a Moderate risk of rip currents. If heading to area beaches and entering the chilly surf, be sure to always swim near a lifeguard and heed the guidance of local beach safety officials.

Sat-Sun...The surface high centered across the mid Atlc states gets nudged seaward Sat night/Sun with the approach of the next low pressure system. Dry conditions persist over land until Sun when moisture begins to pool northward, as we keep a small PoP (20%) across the Treasure Coast counties. An isolated lightning storm cannot be ruled out late aftn Sun. Winds veering ERLY but still 10- 15 mph and gusty on Sat, with the pgrad finally relaxing into Sun, thus lighter wind speeds (7-12 mph) and fewer gusts. Temps begin to trend upward with highs in the L-M70s on Sat and back to U70s to L80s on Sun. Mins Sat overnight/Sun morning in the 50s to near 60F across the interior and L-M60s along the coast, except U60s for immediate St. Lucie and Martin coasts. Mins Sun night/Mon morning in the 60s nearly areawide, save for some U50s in portions of north Lake and NW Volusia counties.

A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area beaches on Sat. Also, with the wind flow veering onshore, expect rough surf as well.

Mon-Fri...Previous Modified...The next cold front will push towards the Florida peninsula early next week, with low pressure developing across the northwest Gulf and lifting northeastward. Isolated to widely scattered (15-26%) showers will be possible on Mon, with coverage increasing on Tue (20-50% - highest I-4 corridor) as the front moves southward across the area. There is low confidence in storm development at this time, so we continue to keep only mention of showers across the peninsula at this time. Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to continue warming, with highs in the U70s to L80s for most, perhaps M80s for portions of St. Lucie and Martin counties on Tue. Overnight lows remain steady in the 60s for Mon/Tue mornings, cooling into the 50s to L60s Wed morning (post-frontal). Towards the middle of next week, the cold front will move south of the area, with high pressure building across the area and drier air filtering in from the north. Mostly dry conditions forecast from Wed-Fri, with afternoon temperatures generally in the 70s and lows in the 50s to L60s.

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

A Small Craft Advisory continues areawide. Hazardous boating conditions continue across all of the local waters thru at least this evening due to gusty northerly winds of 20 kts and seas building to 5-8 ft. Some gusts to 25-30 kts expected. Only minimal improvement in conditions into Sat as both winds/seas are slow to decrease. Poor to Hazardous conditions remain thru Sat, esp over the Gulf Stream where winds/seas will be highest. Northerly winds will begin to veer this evening, overnight, and into Saturday (NE, ENE, E) with the pgrad slowly relaxing further Sat night/Sun. By late Sat or early Sun we are hopeful that all remaining Advisories and/or Cautionary Statements will be dropped. Seas will gradually subside to 3-5 ft early-mid next week. Seas could build back to 6 ft well offshore (north of Sebastian Inlet) Tue-Tue night surrounding the next front. An onshore wind component will continue into Mon evening, then is forecast to veer further to southerly, then of an offshore component Tue-Wed with approach/eventual passage of the next frontal boundary.

Rain and lightning storm chances enter the picture again as early as Sun, with highest potential on Tue (pre-frontal). Models continue to speed up the next low pressure system as the cold front is now forecast to move across the waters as early as Tue night, followed by a return to high pressure and dry conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1222 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 VFR today and tonight courtesy of yesterday's strong cold front. Gusty north winds, highest along the coast and topping out between 20 - 25 knots, persist through sunset. Winds begin to veer to the northeast and east overnight, mainly along the coast before all terminals see the change by 13-15Z Saturday. Developing onshore flow will bring some scattered to broken marine clouds off the Atlantic, initially from KMLB south, though VFR still expected to prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the interior this afternoon, especially Lake and far western portions of Orange and Osceola counties. Dry air has settled across east central Florida, which will cause minimum RH values to fall below 35% for several hours across these areas. In addition, a tight pressure gradient across the local area will promote northerly winds to reach 15 mph and greater at times with higher gusts likely. The only criteria not being met for Red Flag Warning issuance is the Significant Fire Potential, which continues to remain at a "low" risk for today. Sensitive fire weather conditions across the rest of the interior will be possible with minimum RH values of 35-45%, with lower concern along the coast, though the breezy/gusty northerly winds could create containment concerns should a fire ignite.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 52 71 60 78 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 53 73 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 59 74 64 79 / 10 10 0 10 VRB 59 74 64 80 / 10 10 10 20 LEE 46 73 57 80 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 51 72 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 51 72 60 80 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 59 75 64 80 / 10 10 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552- 570.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ555-572-575.