textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Heavy Rainfall & Flooding: Unseasonably rich moisture and multiple disturbances will produce rounds of heavy rain through midweek. A Flood Watch is in effect today along the coast. This is where the highest amounts, 2-4 inches, are expected through Thursday. A low chance (10-20%) of 6+ inches also exists from Daytona Beach to Palm Bay.

- Strong Winds & Coastal Hazards: Wind gusts will increase from north to south today, reaching 35-45 mph at times through Wednesday. There is a small chance for peak gusts of around 50 mph on the Volusia and Brevard coasts today and tonight. These winds will generate dangerous 9-12 ft surf, resulting in minor to moderate beach erosion and numerous life-threatening rip currents.

- Isolated Storms: While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few lightning storms are forecast today and Wednesday. A few storms south of Melbourne could become strong this afternoon, producing localized wind gusts up to 50 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Confidence remains high in the evolution of the weather pattern over the next couple of days, leading to multiple weather impacts across Central Florida. 06/05Z mesoanalysis places a convectively- influenced stationary surface trough near Lake Okeechobee. Another diffuse boundary, marked by a moisture discontinuity, is near Ocala. Unseasonably high moisture is present over much of the district, with PW values in excess of 1.5", which is above the 90th percentile.

Looking upstream, GOES water vapor imagery reveals a well-defined shortwave tracking through the eastern Gulf on the nose of an approaching subtropical jet streak. Its presence is already being felt as it forces synoptic ascent over the Florida Peninsula today. The weak boundaries mentioned above may reorganize and sharpen near or north of I-4 this morning, with perhaps even a mesoscale low developing along the east coast of Florida. Later today, the front sinks southward as continental high pressure pushes into the Northeast U.S. The expected boundary layer mass response is quite remarkable, with most members still showing H925 (2.5 kft) winds increasing to over 50 kt immediately north of the stalled front. Enhanced northeasterly winds over 35 kt at H925 are forecast to persist through at least Wednesday.

By Wednesday, the front is expected to have settled over the southern tip of Florida. Strong onshore flow in the boundary layer is expected to persist for some time. Additional jet stream energy is slated to arrive on Wednesday afternoon or night, likely interacting with the above-normal moisture in place over the area through at least Thursday. Low-level convergence will remain maximized at the coast due to frictional effects.

Beginning Friday and into the weekend, mid-level ridging builds over the Eastern U.S., slowly pushing this disturbance into the Atlantic while also allowing drier air to move southward into Florida.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Through Thursday...

Excessive Rainfall:

Heavy rain is ongoing early this morning, especially along portions of the coast, and trends are being monitored for some flooding. Additional Flood Advisories may be required. This event has already brought some heavy rainfall tallies, particularly in portions of Volusia and Brevard counties where isolated 3-5" amounts have been measured. Guidance still places a higher threat for additional heavy amounts along the coast, particularly over the next 12-18 hours, due to better convergence and close proximity to the surface trough. This necessitated a Flood Watch for all coastal counties through this evening. As the front slides southward tonight and into Wednesday morning, we may see a brief lull in the heaviest activity, but any showers over saturated locations will need to be monitored closely.

A secondary ripple of energy arriving on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday will provide another opportunity for showers and storms. Yet again, with the strong onshore flow, the coast will have the greatest potential for localized flooding.

Most likely rainfall amounts from 1-3" are forecast over the interior through Thursday, with upwards of 2-4" along the coast. Over Volusia and Brevard counties, there is a 10-20% chance of 6"+ additional rainfall. These high-end values, while expected to occur on a more isolated basis, may overcome the drought-stricken soil to cause flooding. This is especially the case in urban and poorly drained communities. Residents and visitors are reminded never to drive through flooded roads. The risk for nocturnally-enhanced rain makes flooding especially dangerous!

Thunderstorms:

While instability appears limited, enough exists for occasional lightning storms over the next couple of days. Modest effective shear may overlap with better instability from near Melbourne and points southward this afternoon to support a couple of strong storms with wind gusts to around 50 mph as the front passes.

Wind:

The timing of the arrival of the strong gradient winds over the area is determined by how quickly the surface front moves southward today. Immediately to its north, and once it passes your location, those north-northeasterly gusts will quickly pick up. While low-level lapse rates are not overly impressive, 45-50 mph winds at 1500 feet off the ground will not be difficult to mix to the surface. We have issued a Wind Advisory that expands southward during the day, reaching Martin County just after sunset.

The highest probabilities for wind gusts over 45 mph today and tonight (40-70%) reside from Orlando to Melbourne and northward, and there is a low chance (15-20%) of peak gusts over 50 mph at the immediate Volusia and Brevard coasts. The Wind Advisory will likely need to be extended into Wednesday as well, as probabilities for wind gusts over 35 mph exceed 50% over almost the entire area.

Those with lightweight outdoor items should secure them before the winds pick up today. A few power outages may result if tree limbs fall on lines. Breezy conditions will persist on Thursday as well, though the winds should not be quite as potent as they will be over the next two days.

Beaches:

The sudden surge of strong to gale-force onshore winds is going to rapidly build seas on the Atlantic, causing high surf to develop at our beaches from north to south between this morning and tonight. In stages, a High Surf Advisory will go into effect. Numerous deadly rip currents are likely as breakers peak at 9 to 12 feet on Wednesday. During each high tide, run-up to the dune line may cause minor to moderate erosion. If visiting the beach, never turn your back on the water. Stay out of the ocean.

Friday - Next Weekend...

This pattern slowly but surely breaks down as we move through Friday and Saturday. Breezy conditions persist with scattered showers and storms on Friday (20-30%), lessening to isolated coverage on Saturday (10-20%). Most places should be dry by Sunday and next Monday as high pressure takes control.

Beach conditions will likely remain dangerous, with rough surf and numerous rip currents continuing.

Temperatures will start to turn warmer, reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.

MARINE

Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A stalled front sits over the waters this morning. It sharpens today before slowly moving toward South Florida. In its wake, gale-force wind gusts are likely to develop over the waters. Dangerous boating conditions are expected to arrive from north to south, with these conditions persisting through Wednesday and Thursday. Numerous showers and storms are forecast through Thursday as well. Seas will only slowly subside as fresh onshore winds continue to the south of high pressure over the Northeast U.S. late this week.

Winds increasing to NE 20-30 kt with frequent gale force gusts, first over the Volusia waters by midday before spreading southward. Gale-force gusts will be possible through Wednesday, but strong gusts continue into Thursday as well. Extremely rough conditions on the intracoastal through midweek once the strong gusts reach any given point on the coast. Seas building to 10-18 ft at their peak by Wednesday night, only subsiding to 8-11 feet by Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Frontal boundary currently nearly stationary across central Florida will shift southward during the day. Upper support imparted by approaching shortwave trough in the Gulf will produce a high coverage of showers with a few embedded storms. Prevailing MVFR cigs will continue to build southward behind the front, with ocnl IFR cigs possible.

This morning, winds will be N/NE up to 10-15 knots north of the front (KMLB northward), and E/NE 5-8 knots to the south. N/NE winds will increase significantly from north to south as pressure gradient tightens around strong high pressure to the north. Wind speeds are forecast to increase 20-25 knots sustained with gusts 30-35 knots. Some of the MOS guidance is even higher, however, and will have to monitor for further increases in future TAF updates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 64 72 64 / 90 50 80 60 MCO 70 64 71 65 / 90 40 80 60 MLB 75 67 75 67 / 90 60 80 80 VRB 77 67 75 66 / 90 70 80 80 LEE 70 62 73 63 / 80 30 80 50 SFB 71 63 73 64 / 90 50 80 60 ORL 71 64 73 64 / 90 40 80 60 FPR 77 66 75 66 / 90 60 80 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-247- 254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ041-141.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for FLZ044>046-053-144.

Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for FLZ058.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141.

High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ154-647-747.

Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ154-159-254-259.

High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ159-164.

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ164-264.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ247-347-447-547-647-747.

High Surf Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ347-447.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ550-570.

Gale Warning from noon today to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ552.

Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ572.