textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions continue along the east central Florida coast and across the local Atlantic waters through late week. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding, moderate to major beach erosion and a HIGH risk of rip currents are forecast over the next several days.

- Increasing moisture will bring higher coverage and intensity of showers with isolated storms today, materializing near the coast primarily in the form of rainbands. Locally heavy rain will produce a risk for flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Today-Tonight...An area of low pressure positioned near the Bahamas is anticipated to push westward across south Florida today, dragging a stalled frontal boundary slightly northward towards SE Florida. To the north, a strong area of high pressure situated across the eastern US slides offshore. This set-up will maintain a tight pressure gradient across east central Florida today, with breezy northeast winds prevailing areawide once again. Wind speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible, though overall conditions are anticipated to remain just below Wind Advisory criteria. With the low moving just south of the area through today, moisture is forecast to increase from south to north, resulting in PWATs exceeding 1.5" across east central Florida into this afternoon. Rain chances of 40-70% are forecast due to the increasing moisture, along with a 20% chance of storms with activity. Any storms that do manage to develop may be capable of producing occasional lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 45 mph, and heavy downpours. With persistent northeast flow both at the surface and aloft, activity will move from the northeast towards the southwest through the day, and there is the potential for bands of showers to develop across east central Florida. This will increase the risk of minor, localized flooding in spots, especially along the coast. As a result, WPC maintains eastern portions of the forecast area within a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall today. Tonight, lingering showers will continue to be possible, though coverage is forecast to decrease. Breezy northeast winds will slacken slightly, though some isolated stronger gusts cannot be ruled out along the coast. Temperatures reach the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon, warmest across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Overnight, above-normal lows are forecast in the low to mid 70s.

Dangerous coastal conditions persist along the entire east central Florida coast today due to the ongoing northeast winds, elevated seas, and King Tides. Moderate to locally major beach erosion continues due to breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet, with a High Surf Advisory remaining in effect. Coastal flooding remains a concern today thanks to the compounding effects of already higher surf and ongoing King Tides. While the crest today is anticipated to be slightly lower than yesterday's, the impacts will be similar and a Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect. Additionally, a high risk of rip currents continues. Overall, conditions remain dangerous, especially during high tide, and heading to the beach and out into the surf is strongly discouraged.

Thursday-Friday...The surface low will continue to retrograde through late this week, with guidance indicating that it will weaken as it reaches the Gulf. The quasi-stationary boundary is anticipated to remain in place across south Florida through late week. The high to the north is forecast to continue shifting offshore across the Atlantic, though another surface high will replace it, building southward from the Great Lakes region. Overall, the pressure gradient is forecast to gradually weaken across the Florida peninsula, with northeast winds slowly decreasing through the remainder of this week and becoming less gusty. A plume of moisture is forecast to remain in place into Thursday due to the stalled boundary to the south, with rain chances staying around 30-60%, highest across the north. By Friday, rain chances fall to 20-40%, with the highest chances focused towards the Treasure Coast. Low chances for storm development continue each day, right around 20%. Temperatures warm into the 80s areawide during the afternoon, warmest towards the southern half of the forecast area. Lows range between the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Hazardous coastal conditions persist into Thursday, with the High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Warning remaining in effect along with a high risk of rip currents. By Friday, winds and seas decrease, with growing confidence that conditions could begin to show some signs of improvement late this week. Regardless, hazardous conditions will still be present at the beaches and entering the ocean will continue to not be advised.

Saturday-Tuesday...The surface high continues to build southward from the Great Lakes this weekend, strengthening and shifting southeastward across the eastern US before pushing offshore into early next week. Easterly flow develops locally, prompting moisture advection from the Atlantic towards east central Florida that will maintain a moist airmass through the extended period. Models are indicating the development of mid-level trough and a weak low in the Gulf that will drift across north Florida late this weekend into early next week, though there remains some discrepancies relative to timing. The NBM is picking up on this for Sunday, with an increase in PoPs on Sunday (60-70%) compared to Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday (20-40%). Shifts in rain chances will be possible as timing of this system becomes clearer, so stay in tune to the forecast. Storm chances at this time remain low through this weekend and into next week (20-30%), but again, this may evolve as the pattern becomes clearer and guidance comes into better agreement. Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal values through this weekend and into early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts up to 30 knots continue through today, with winds diminishing to 10 to 20 knots by Thursday. Seas stay elevated at 9 to 14 feet today but respond to the weakening winds by subsiding to 6 to 9 feet on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all legs of the local Atlantic waters through Thursday night. By Friday, easterly winds develop as high pressure settles to the north, with occasional brief surges in wind speeds to 15 to 20 knots possible late this week and into the weekend. Seas of 5 to 7 feet on Friday are forecast to build once again up to 6 to 9 feet through the weekend in response to the wind surges, with the highest seas focused primarily across the offshore waters. Extended the Small Craft Advisory across the offshore zones through Friday for now, though additional extensions through the weekend are likely needed with future forecast packages.

A moist air mass across the local Atlantic waters will result in higher coverage of showers, with rain chances ranging between 40-70% today and Thursday. Slightly lower chances late this week and into the early weekend (30-50%), before another surge of moisture results in chances rising once again (60-70%). There is a low chance (20-30%) of storm development with activity each day. Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, and heavy downpours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Breezy/gusty NE winds continue this afternoon with numerous SHRA pushing onshore south of TIX requiring TEMPOs. Less coverage of SHRA across the north so handling that with VCSH or PROB30. CIGs are generally VFR (barely) except MVFR in SHRA. Expect prevailing MVFR conds to develop tonight at MCO into early Thu with SCT SHRA pushing SW across the area so handled that with VCSH.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 73 81 71 81 / 40 50 30 20 MCO 73 84 72 85 / 30 40 20 20 MLB 73 83 73 83 / 60 40 30 30 VRB 73 85 73 85 / 60 30 40 40 LEE 71 84 70 84 / 20 40 20 20 SFB 73 84 72 84 / 30 40 20 20 ORL 73 84 72 85 / 30 40 20 20 FPR 72 84 72 84 / 60 20 30 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572-575.