textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1043 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Excessive Rain Threat This Week: Multiple rounds of rain and storms are expected through Thursday, especially along the coast where totals of 2-5" are forecast. Localized higher amounts may lead to flash flooding in urban and poorly-drained areas. A Flood Watch is now in effect through Tuesday evening for Volusia and Brevard counties.

- Strong Wind Gusts Beginning Tuesday: A Wind Advisory has been issued for tomorrow, with stronger winds gradually expanding southward with time. Strong northeast winds will gust from 35-45 mph inland and up to 35-50 mph along the coast. These winds may cause a few power outages; secure all lightweight outdoor items.

- Dangerous Surf & Boating Impacts: Large breaking waves building to 8-12 feet at Central Florida's Atlantic beaches Tuesday through Thursday, with higher waves offshore. Expect minor to moderate beach erosion around high tide and numerous life- threatening rip currents. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged this week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1043 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Storms have largely diminished this evening, with lingering areas of light to moderate rainfall across much of east central FL. This rainfall may continue for some areas into tonight. North of a stalled boundary, currently south of Melbourne, elevated low level northeast wind speeds are already leading to some banding of heavier rainfall, which may lead to some localized flooding overnight. As low pressure along the stalled front shifts northeast toward the coast tonight and offshore through tomorrow, it will drag the front south into they daytime hours Tuesday. This will allow low level onshore flow to significantly strengthen, with an increased potential for locally heavy to excessive rainfall (up to 5-7" at the coast). This may lead to localized instances of flash flooding, mainly across Volusia and Brevard counties. A Flood Watch has therefore been issued for these counties and continues through 8 PM Tuesday.

A Wind Advisory has also been issued for the area tomorrow, initially starting across Volusia County in the morning and expanding southward through the day as stronger onshore flow develops behind the slowly southward moving front. Wind gusts up to 35-45 mph are forecast across the interior and up to 35-50 mph along the coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Current-Tonight...The weak cold frontal boundary continues to settle southward across the central FL peninsula early this afternoon. Initial light northerly flow behind it will veer NNE/NE with speeds increasing to 10-15 mph, and perhaps 15-20 mph near/north of I-4 - highest along the Volusia coast, where gusts late today may approach 25-30 mph into this evening. This evening, much of the area south of Orlando will see winds diminish to 5-10 mph; whereas further north winds will stay elevated near 10 mph with higher gusts - esp along the Volusia coast (15-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph). Ahead of sunrise Tue morning here (Volusia coast), winds may pick up to sustained 20 to 25 mph with gusts 30+ mph. Expect cloud- cover to "thicken" thru the remainder of the afternoon and tonight, post-frontal. PWATs will surge to 1.50-1.75" nearly areawide thru late today. Weak troughing aloft develops over the Gulf as winds "back" to SW and pieces of shortwave energy push across the peninsula, esp evening/overnight with increasing upper support.

SCT-NMRS convection remains forecast this afternoon and tonight. While we may see some initial activity develop along the ECSB, highest coverage over the interior during the late afternoon and early evening, then projected toward the coast during the night. Storm steering will be out of the southwest up to around 10 mph. A few strong storms are possible with main convective threats of lightning strikes, gusty winds to around 45 mph, small hail, and torrential downpours. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed pretty much ALL of ECFL in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall thru tonight. Therefore, some minor/nuisance flooding will be possible for locations that receive multiple rounds. Much of the area remains dry at present and can initially take some bouts of heavy rainfall. At the least, we are expecting some flooding of prone urban and poorly drained areas. Lows continue in the L-M60s for most.

Tue-Thu...The former frontal boundary will settle across the southern peninsula/FL Straits thru this period. The Weather Prediction Center keeps much of ECFL within a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Tue & Wed. General "troughiness" aloft will continue with numerous shortwave impulses traversing the central peninsula. Frictional convergence will be enhanced in the low- levels with the strong onshore flow. We are expecting slow-moving convergent convective bands to develop along the coast, with abnormally high coverage (60-80%) of showers and storms, esp for the climatologically driest month of the year for central FL. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected thru mid-week and may promote a flooding threat. A Flood Watch may eventually be required, but much of the area begins this event rather dry so we will monitor conditions.

At present, we continue to message peak amounts during this period of 2-4" along much of the coast, locally 5-7" in play here. For the interior, 1-3" and locally 4-5". Some areas may not receive these amounts and some could receive more, again much depending on surface/upper air features and where "banding" sets up with repeated rounds. While, this rainfall will certainly help bring some relief from ongoing drought conditions, too much rain too quickly could lead to (flash) flooding issues.

With the proximity of the aforementioned frontal boundary, strengthening high pressure will push across the Atlc Seaboard creating a tight pressure gradient across ECFL spreading southward during the day on Tue. This will increase onshore (NERLY) flow thru Thu, with windy/gusty conditions, esp along the (Volusia/Space) coast. Gusts approach 25-35+ mph on Tue/Wed (perhaps 40-45 mph Volusia/Space coasts). We will monitor for further Wind Advisory criteria. Breezy and gusty (G25-30 mph) onshore winds continue into Thu. Elevated winds & gusts will also continue each evening and overnight. This duration of strong onshore winds may cause sporadic power outages if limbs fall on power lines. Secure any lightweight items, such as trash cans, that may be tossed about.

High coverage of clouds and precip will lead to below normal temperatures in the 70s Tue-Thu. Some areas north of I-4 on Tue may struggle to 70F or L70s. Overnight lows remain in the 60s.

Strong onshore breezes will cause dangerous conditions along the coast, including rough, pounding surf and life-threatening rip currents persisting thru Thu. It is strongly advised to stay out of the ocean this week! Rapidly building surf spreading southward on Tue, with breakers reaching 8-12 ft by late Wed. Minor to moderate beach and dune erosion will be possible surrounding the twice-daily high tides beginning on Wed.

Fri-Mon...Previous Slightly Modified...We should gradually come out of this impactful stretch of weather as we approach the weekend. Some lingering showers are still forecast on Fri (30-40%) and perhaps even Sat (15-20%) as fresh onshore breezes continue. Rainfall amounts should be lighter, however. Most locations should be dry by next Sun. A warming trend should get underway, with highs from the U70s to L80s. Lows consistent and in the L-M60s, save for some U60s at the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A weakening cold front settles across the local waters and remains in proximity thru mid-week. An abnormally high coverage of showers and storms will exist thru Wed-Thu. NERLY winds will also increase with building seas promoting hazardous to dangerous boating conditions for much of this week. Small Craft Advisories go into effect later today/tonight into Tue, with developing Gale conditions Tue afternoon thru at least Wed night. NE winds will reach 20-30kts sustained with occasional to frequent gust to Gale Force late Tue thru Wed night. Seas quickly build into Tue, 8-12 ft north & 5-7 ft south, continuing upward to 10-16 ft Tue night and Wed. Seas remain hazardous through the rest of the work-week as wind speeds only very gradually diminish.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 756 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Front has shifted south of KMLB, and is forecast to then remain quasi-stationary across central Florida through early tomorrow morning before shifting farther southward Tuesday afternoon as low pressure along the front shifts offshore. For the time being lightning activity has diminished, but areas of light to moderate rain will continue over some terminals this evening. MVFR cigs will continue to build in north of the front, with IFR cigs possible. Repeated rounds of rain, with increasing coverage of onshore moving showers and potentially some storms forecast overnight tonight through Tuesday, with threat of locally heavy rainfall, especially along the coast where heavier bands of showers and storms develop and persist.

Winds will be N/NE up to 10-15 knots north of the front tonight (KMLB northward), and lighter around 5-8 knots out of the E/NE to the south. As front shifts south, N/NE winds increase significantly and become quite windy, especially north of the Treasure Coast. Wind speeds are forecast to increase to 20-25 knots with gusts 30-35 knots. Some of the MOS guidance is even higher, however, and will have to be monitored for further increases in future TAF updates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 72 64 75 / 90 80 60 80 MCO 66 70 65 72 / 80 80 50 80 MLB 66 75 67 75 / 90 80 70 80 VRB 66 77 66 77 / 80 80 70 80 LEE 63 71 63 75 / 90 80 40 70 SFB 65 73 63 75 / 80 80 60 80 ORL 65 72 64 74 / 80 80 50 80 FPR 65 77 65 77 / 80 80 70 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ041-141-247-347-447- 547-647-747.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141.

High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-570.

Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550- 570.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

Gale Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552- 572.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555- 575.

Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.