textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions to linger through at least Wednesday morning

- Warming trend continues through late week and into next weekend, coastal showers increase from the south Wednesday night into Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Now-Tonight...Aside from a few high clouds overhead, marine stratocumulus is moving ashore from Sebastian southward this afternoon. Breezy conditions with wind gusts along the coast of 20-30 mph are ongoing as well. A tightened pressure gradient surrounds an expansive high pressure system, currently over central Appalachia. The high will slowly shift toward the Mid Atlantic Coast overnight but help maintain dry conditions over our area. After sunset, wind speeds are forecast to decrease inland but will remain breezy to gusty along the coast. Temperatures tonight are forecast to be about 10 to almost 15 degrees warmer in spots, settling in the 40s and 50s before daybreak Wednesday (low 60s coastal Martin County). Unlike last night, there are no headlines concerning cold temperatures, but wind chill values could still drop into the upper 30s north of I-4...particularly across Lake and inland Volusia counties. Some additional mid to high level clouds may build in, particularly across the north.

Wednesday-Friday...The center of the high will shift offshore through the day Wednesday, allowing our surface winds to turn more onshore (easterly). Moisture is slow to return to the area overall, and a stout mid level dry slot will remain through at least Thursday. However, models show an increase in moisture below 825mb Wednesday night and Thursday, coincident with light QPF reaching southern portions of the Treasure Coast. This is in line with a 15-25% chance of shower from Melbourne Beach south to Jupiter Inlet, prior to sunrise Thursday. Isolated coastal showers remain possible through the day Thursday, perhaps staying more offshore Thursday night, then returning along much of the ECFL coast on Friday. A weak front or two may become situated over or just north of the Florida Peninsula later in the week, but any showers will remain shallow and weakly forced. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with Thursday favoring more clouds than sun. The spread in temps and dew points grows Friday as the entire column warms, allowing for a bit more sunshine. Highs Wednesday in the low to mid 70s trend warmer each day, reaching the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday. Overnight lows follow the same trend, starting in the 50s to mid 60s Wednesday night and warming a bit more each night (upper 50s to upper 60s by Friday night). With low rain chances focused along the coast mid to late week, QPF looks to remain light (a few hundredths to 0.15").

Saturday-Monday (modified)...An approaching cold front will move slowly towards east central Florida this weekend and into early next week, with little movement caused by a lack of mid and upper level support. Guidance continues to lack a single solution with regard to timing the front's passage through east central Florida, but the latest guidance continues to trend later. It is now looking like Monday or even Tuesday when we see the front push south of the area. As a result, Saturday and Sunday will remain on the drier side with rain chances only around 15-20% at the coast Saturday and 20-30% across northern portions of the area on Sunday. The slower progression of the front means more time spent in the warm sector. Thus, two days of above normal temperatures (perhaps near records in a few spots) are forecast this weekend. By Monday, temperatures begin to slowly decrease as cloud cover increases and the front approaches east central Florida. A return of colder temperatures is possible into Sunday night, but particularly Monday night as the front moves south through the area. With some models more progressive and others holding the front back longer, there are sizable differences in QPF, especially across northern and coastal areas. Any measurable rain will be a welcome sight with drought conditions continuing to expand across the area.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Hazardous conditions are in place across the local Atlantic this afternoon with freshening northeast winds (gusting around 25 kt). Seas are slow to respond but will continue to build 5-7 ft (up to 8 ft in the Gulf Stream). Gradually improving conditions from north to south are forecast overnight into Wednesday, though poor conditions are likely to remain over northern reaches of the waters through tomorrow morning. Wind speeds decrease further Thursday and Friday, turning more onshore. Seas could remain up to 6 ft through Thursday offshore, but generally return to 3-5 ft by Wednesday evening/night. Onshore-moving showers are possible through late week and into the first part of the weekend. A lightning storm cannot be ruled out Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 655 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conds forecast through the TAF period. Marine stratocumulus will push onshore the coast with ocnl BKN040-050. Winds become NE along the coast tonight with gusts up to 20 knots, veering E/NE Wed. At interior terminals (MCO/SFB), light north winds tonight shifting ENE Wed with similar gusts possible. The stratocumulus will spread inland Wed along with an increase in cirrus from the west.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 48 71 56 74 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 48 73 57 75 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 56 72 62 75 / 0 10 10 20 VRB 56 74 62 76 / 0 10 20 30 LEE 43 71 53 76 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 46 73 56 76 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 47 73 56 76 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 56 74 61 77 / 0 10 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ552-570.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ572.