textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- A cold front will pass through the area late today into this evening, beginning several days of medium to high rain chances with embedded lightning storms.

- Breezy to windy conditions will continue into this evening behind the front, with gusts up to 25-35 mph. Strongest gusts forecast to occur along the immediate coast of Volusia and Brevard counties.

- Hazardous boating conditions will quickly develop behind the front from late afternoon into this evening, and continue into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Currently-Tonight...A weakening band of showers ahead of an approaching cold front is moving into Lake and Volusia counties, and will continue southward across central FL through late afternoon into this evening. Breezy southwest winds ahead of the front will continue to increase temps into the mid to upper 80s (nearing records along the Treasure Coast). SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows this has increased MLCAPE values to around 500-1000 J/kg, but mid level lapse rates remain rather weak. Still this should continue to support the potential for at least isolated storm development with this activity into the afternoon/evening. A stronger storm or two still can't be completely ruled out, with strong wind gusts up to 40-45 mph the main threat, mainly near to north of Orlando where W/SW low to mid level wind fields are a little stronger. Lightning strikes and locally heavy downpours will also occur with any storms.

Behind the front, a surge in N/NE winds will develop which will continue breezy to windy conditions into this evening. Wind speeds will be 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph even across inland areas, with speeds 20-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph along the immediate coast of Volusia and Brevard counties. There is even a 30-40% chance for occasional gusts in excess of 35 mph for coastal Volusia/Brevard counties. However, should any of these higher gusts occur, they will be brief and will therefore not issue a Wind Advisory for these coastal locations. Rain chances and winds speeds diminish overnight, with northeast winds decreasing to 10-15 mph. There will not be a large change in temps behind this front, with min temps by daybreak Friday still near to above normal in the mid to upper 50s NW of I-4 and in the 60s to the south.

Friday-Sunday...Front will stall south of central FL into Friday. Onshore flow and lingering moisture (PW up to 1.2-1.4") will continue the potential for isolated to scattered showers south of Orlando (rain chances 20-40%). Onshore moving showers will be possible through the morning, with additional development along the inland moving east coast sea breeze in the afternoon. Surface based CAPE will increase to 500-1000 J/kg across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast, so a slight chance for storms will continue across this region. Highs will not be as warm, but will still be near to slightly above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Weak frontal trough lifts north and fades into the weekend with onshore winds Saturday becoming S/SE into Sunday. This will lead to increasing moisture and a rise in shower/storm chances. Greatest rain chances will continue south of Orlando into Saturday, up to 60- 70%, but even near to north of Orlando PoPs will range from 30-50%. Isolated to scattered afternoon storms will also occur, mainly into the afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage of showers and storms will then occur into Sunday (rain chances up to 70-80%), as PW values rise to 1.5-1.7" and weak S/W aloft moves through the region.

Cold temperatures at 500mb near -12 to -13C and lingering dry air aloft will lead to some stronger storms each day, with the main threats being strong gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy downpours. Total rainfall accumulations through the weekend look to remain around 1-1.5", but isolated totals near 2" cannot be ruled out. Any rain will certainly help as severe to extreme drought conditions continue across much of the area. Temperatures will be above normal into the weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A stout low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes early next week, dragging yet another cold front through the Florida peninsula Monday into Monday night. High rain chances (around 70-80%) persist through Monday, before drier air and lower PoPs (20-40%) develop into mid- week. Breezy winds return, with southwest flow veering onshore through the period. Highs in the lower 80s Monday will see a significant cooldown to near to below normal Tuesday through Thursday. Most areas will struggle to break out of the 60s Tuesday afternoon. Noticeably chillier lows are also expected, falling into the 40s and 50s.

MARINE

Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

This Afternoon-Friday...Weakening band of showers and isolated storms will progress southward through the area this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Any storms will be capable of producing lightning strikes and gusty winds as they shift offshore.

Hazardous boating conditions will rapidly develop behind the passing front through tonight, with a surge in N/NE winds up to 20-30 knots quickly expanding southward across the coastal waters very late in the afternoon through this evening. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet this evening as the surge initially builds in. No changes in start time were made to the current Small Craft Advisory, beginning for the Volusia County waters at 5 PM and expanding to the rest of the adjacent Atlantic waters at 10 PM. Winds decrease only slightly overnight, with a continuing fresh to strong northeast breeze around 15-25 knots building seas up to 6-9 feet through Friday morning.

E/NE winds will diminish into Friday from 15-20 knots in the morning to 10-15 knots in the afternoon. Seas will be slower to subside, with a Small Craft Advisory continuing for the Gulf Stream waters for wave heights up to 7-9 feet through Friday evening. Scattered showers and possibly a storm or two will continue to be possible across the waters Friday, mainly south of the Cape.

Saturday-Tuesday...Boating conditions briefly improve into Saturday, with onshore winds 10-15 knots and seas falling to 3-5 feet. However, boating conditions then forecast to deteriorate late weekend into early next week ahead of and behind a passing stronger cold front. Southerly winds increase up to 15-20 knots Sunday afternoon through Monday, and then increase further to 20-25 knots out of the north-northwest behind the passing front into Monday night. This will build seas up to 7-10 feet through Tuesday.

Medium to high shower and storm coverage will persist across the coastal waters this weekend and continue through early next week with the next passing front.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 808 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Isolated showers and lightning storms ahead of a cold front continue to shift southward across ECFL this evening. Any lingering shower and storm activity will dissipate or move out of the area around midnight. Breezy/gusty SW winds this afternoon will veer NW/N behind the front this evening and overnight. Guidance continues to indicate that there will be a few-hour period immediately following the front that may have the highest wind gusts (in excess of 25-30 KT), with speeds gradually decreasing through the night. MVFR CIGs are forecast to develop behind the front. However, guidance is in slight disagreement on how long it will linger. For now, have kept MVFR CIGs for a few hours before lifting it back to VFR by mid morning Fri. Winds continue to veer NE/E thru the day on Fri with speeds 10-15 KT and higher gusts likely. Winds then decrease to below 10 KT late Friday afternoon and overnight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate sites:

Mar 12 Monthly March DAB 90 1935 92 3/28/1994* LEE 88 2001 92 3/26/2023* SFB 90 2001 94 3/20/2003 MCO 89 2001 97 3/30/1907 MLB 90 1962 93 3/28/1994 VRB 88 2023 93 3/31/2020* FPR 89 1948 93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 77 62 79 / 30 10 10 30 MCO 62 79 65 80 / 30 10 10 50 MLB 65 78 66 80 / 50 20 30 50 VRB 66 79 65 81 / 50 20 40 60 LEE 58 80 62 81 / 20 10 10 40 SFB 60 79 62 81 / 30 10 10 40 ORL 61 79 65 81 / 30 10 10 50 FPR 65 80 64 81 / 50 30 40 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570.