textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- An unsettled pattern will continue to produce scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms across the area through Thursday.

- A cool front late week will bring lower rain chances and drier air into the weekend.

- Breezy to windy north to northeast winds behind the front will lead to deteriorating beach and boating conditions into late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Today-Wednesday...Mid/upper level low that has lingered across the area finally weakens as it lifts northeast today. Pressure gradient remains weak across the area with winds light and variable each morning, becoming onshore in the afternoon around 5-10 mph as sea breeze develops and moves inland. Moist airmass remains in place, with PW values around 2 inches. This will continue to lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms through midweek, mainly into the afternoon and early evening hours with the inland moving sea breeze boundary. Rain chances range from 40-60% today and rise slightly to 50-70% on Wednesday. Temperatures begin to warm aloft as low aloft breaks down and lifts away from the region, and the fairly saturated airmass keeps DCAPE values relatively low (around 500-700 J/kg). However, can't completely rule out isolated strong storms each afternoon. Primary threat looks to be locally heavy rainfall of 1-3" due to weak steering flow, which may lead to minor flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas. However, gusty winds to 40-50 mph and frequent lightning will be possible with any stronger convection.

Temperatures will remain near to just slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Humid conditions will produce peak heat index values up to 100-103F each afternoon ahead of developing storms. Warm and muggy conditions are forecast each night, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday-Friday...Strengthening low pressure offshore the Mid Atlantic coast lifts northward through late week, as mid/upper level trough digs southward across the eastern U.S coast. This will push a cool front through the region into Thursday, with winds becoming breezy to windy out of the N/NE each day into late week. Sustained speeds up to 15-25 mph will be possible, with gusts up to 25-35 mph. Strongest wind speeds and gusts currently forecast to be focused along the Volusia and Brevard County coastlines. The increase in winds will lead to hazardous surf and boating conditions developing into late week. PW values begin to decrease, but there will still be sufficient moisture with the passing front to produce scattered to numerous showers and storms into Thursday (rain chances up to 50-70%). Rain chances begin to decrease into Friday as drier air continues to filter into the area, with best potential for showers and storms (PoPs 30-50%) focused along the coast and inland southeast of the I-4 corridor.

Temperatures only slightly decrease as front moves through into late week, with highs still reaching the mid to upper 80s for most locations (except low 80s along the Volusia coast Friday). Overnight lows continue in the 70s Thursday night, but may start to see min temps in the upper 60s creep in across the interior into Friday night.

Saturday-Monday...A slight taste of Fall forecast into the weekend and early next week as drier air continues to filter into the area, leading to lowering rain chances and decreasing humidity. Highs will still reach into the 80s, but dewpoints in the 60s will make for more comfortable conditions. Lows in the mid to upper 60s forecast to be more widespread across the area, especially across the interior. Breezy conditions will likely continue into Saturday, especially along the coast, and then winds are forecast to decrease to around 10 to 15 mph Sunday into early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Today-Wednesday...Pressure gradient remains weak across the waters through midweek as low pressure forms off the southeast U.S. coast and lifts northeast as it gradually strengthens. Wind speeds remain 5-10 knots and will be rather variable with a more offshore component in the morning becoming onshore into the afternoon/evening as sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas will be 2-3 feet through Wednesday. Main hazard to boaters will be the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms over the waters, especially during the nighttime and morning hours.

Thursday-Saturday...Low pressure off the eastern U.S. coast develops into a nor'easter as it continue to lift slowly northward through late week, with a cool front pushing southward across the waters Thursday. This will lead to deteriorating boating conditions, with N/NE winds increasing to 15-25 knots and seas building to 7-10 feet through Friday. N/NE winds gradually decrease into the weekend, but may still remain up to 15-20 knots on Saturday. Seas will remain elevated up to 7-9 feet though, continuing to produce hazardous boating conditions through at least Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms lingers Thursday, with drier air then gradually reducing rain chances late week into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 643 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

TS/SH over the Atlantic waters are staying offshore, with just brief reductions to CIGs near MCO/ISM through around 13Z this morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop between 15Z to the north and 17Z to the south, shifting light/VRB winds NE-E at 5-10 kts. TS may develop along the boundary as soon as it develops, but best chances are after 17Z. TS forecast to become SCT-NUM while moving inland, with a sea breeze collision INVOF KMCO/inland terminals, and just west of KMLB-KSUA near the coast, after 19Z. HRRR/HREF guidance favor highest chances for TS just west of the ECFL terminals, and opted to stick with PROB30s for all TAF sites but KDAB-KTIX, where TS are forecast to more readily move inland. Most TS forecast to diminish between 23Z-01Z. Debris SHRA (MVFR reductions at worst) may push back towards the coast and INVOF of ECFL terminals as late as 05Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 75 88 75 / 30 10 50 20 MCO 91 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 10 MLB 88 74 88 75 / 50 20 60 20 VRB 88 73 87 73 / 50 20 60 20 LEE 91 74 91 74 / 40 20 60 10 SFB 90 74 90 74 / 40 20 60 10 ORL 90 75 90 75 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 88 72 87 72 / 60 30 70 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.