textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- A passing disturbance aloft will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area this weekend and into next week.

- A few strong storms will be possible each afternoon and early evening, with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches.

- Near seasonable temperatures will continue across the area over the next several days but remaining humid.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Today-Sunday...A cut-off low in the mid levels will retrograde westward across FL peninsula today and stall over the eastern Gulf Sunday. This pattern will increase the deep moisture over the area with PWATs between 1.8-2.0" today and exceed 2" areawide on Sunday. This moisture combined with persistent northeast to east flow will support scattered showers and storms over the adjacent Atlc overnight/mornings, drifting toward the coast. Coverage is then anticipated to increase over land as daytime heating takes hold, particularly into the afternoon hours as a diffuse east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, with scattered to numerous showers and storms each day. Rain chances are 50% today (60% south) and increase 60-70% Sunday. Temperatures aloft are not quite as cold today (-7C to -8C at 500mb) so risk of small hail is low. The primary storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours producing quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3". Shower and storm activity will gradually diminish across the peninsula each evening into the overnight hours, with the potential for continued westward- moving shower and storm development across the local Atlantic waters. Temperatures are forecast to remain seasonable in the upper 80s to low 90s each day, with lows in the 70s each night.

Mon-Fri...The cut-off upper low will meander over the eastern Gulf to start the week then gradually fill, open up and become absorbed by a northern stream trough. Copious moisture will remain over the area to support high rain/storm chances esp Mon-Wed (60-80%). A frontal boundary is forecast to reach central FL Thu before stalling across south FL Fri. Slightly drier air should reduce rain chances back toward normal (50%) late in the week. A few strong storms each afternoon/evening will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Temperatures are forecast to be at or slightly above normal in the upper 80s/near 90 with humid conditions pushing peak heat indices above 100F once again in some spots next week.

MARINE

Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Weak pressure gradient will produce more favorable boating conditions this weekend and well into next week. Winds remain onshore (NE to E) this weekend then become more variable next week with speeds remaining below 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. While winds and seas are forecast to remain favorable, a moist air mass will promote continued development of isolated to scattered showers and storms, with storms capable of producing lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, and heavy downpours.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 659 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

No significant changes with the 12Z TAF update. VFR conditions still largely forecast, outside of developing scattered showers and storms, primarily through late morning and into the afternoon. However, isolated onshore moving showers will be possible along the coast this morning. VCTS still begins around 15-16Z, with 3-hour PROB30/TEMPO windows for MVFR TSRA impacts starting as early as 15Z at KDAB/KTIX and as late as 18Z from KVRB-KSUA. Isolated strong storms will be possible. Convection will diminish and mostly shift W/SW of the area by 00Z, with isolated onshore moving showers again possible along the coast into tonight.

Light and variable winds become E/NE 7-10 knots into the late morning/afternoon and then become light and variable again after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 75 88 74 / 40 20 50 20 MCO 89 73 90 73 / 50 10 70 10 MLB 88 75 87 74 / 50 30 60 30 VRB 88 73 87 72 / 50 30 70 20 LEE 90 73 90 73 / 50 10 60 10 SFB 88 73 88 73 / 50 10 60 10 ORL 88 74 89 74 / 50 10 70 10 FPR 88 73 88 72 / 50 30 70 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.