textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- There is a better chance for portions of East Central Florida to see heavy rainfall and flooding than previous days between a more active sea breeze, a collision closer to our area, and weaker steering flow. Other storm threats will be gusty winds to around 40 mph and occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- A wet weather pattern will persist across East Central Florida into the weekend. The main storm hazard through late week will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding issues.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue the next couple days, then temperatures increase a couple degrees going into the weekend. Peak afternoon heat indices remain in the triple digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Today-Tonight...Heavy rainfall for East Central Florida has been more miss than hit that last few days, but that is likely to start changing today. Another weak inverted trough has developed over the nearby Atlantic waters, and overnight onshore moving showers and lightning storms have already been more plentiful, and are likely to continue through the morning. Between a weakening pressure gradient on the western periphery of the Bermuda high and troughs in and near the local Atlantic waters, low-level flow becomes more southeasterly today, allowing a better defined east coast sea breeze (more effective trigger for convection) to develop, while also shifting portions of the collision and highest afternoon storms chances into our area. The weak surface troughs and the southeasterly flow they are producing keep moisture well above normal (PWATs 2.2-2.4" approaching or exceeding daily maximums). Model and upper air soundings continue to show a very saturated environment with long-skinny instability profiles (CAPE generally 1,000-2,000 J/kg, though some surface based parcels could push towards 3,000 J/kg) and warm mid-levels (T500 -5C to -4C) characteristic of heavy rainfall/efficient rain makers. In addition to more surface triggers that could generate higher coverage of convection on our side of the peninsula, weak offshore steering flow becomes light/variable and storm motion is likely to become slow/erratic. Storms and heavy showers will be capable of delivering a quick 2-3" of rainfall leading to ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of urban, low-lying, or poor drainage areas. HREF guidance indicates there is a very low (up to 5%) chance for a few locations to receive locally high amounts +5" leading to greater flooding impacts, and the Weather Prediction Center has outlooked all of East Central Florida in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. In addition to the rainfall, stronger storms and heavy showers will be capable of gusty winds to around 40 mph from water loading. Occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms.

As for the rest of the forecast, lots of cloud cover keeps temperatures seasonable with highs in the U80s-L90s, and lows in the muggy 70s. Peak afternoon heat indices 99-106. There is Moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

Friday-Saturday...The parent trough of a low pressure system pushing offshore New England and the Canadian Maritimes will dig down the eastern seaboard, shoving the ridge over the Southeast back to the Central US, and the Bermuda high south. As the surface ridge axis slides through Florida, flow will become more southerly Friday, and southwesterly Saturday, shifting the sea breeze collision and highest chances for afternoon showers and lightning storms gradually farther into East Central Florida. Some drier air will begin to intrude in the mid-upper levels, decreasing cloud cover some and offering better destabilization from daytime heating, and could also enhance downdrafts, potentially resulting in more storms capable of stronger gusts than previous days. A limiting factor for instability will be mid- level temperatures which remain warm, and mostly occasional to frequent lightning is expected with storms. The main threat from storms will continue to be locally heavy rainfall of 2-4" and minor flooding from slow moving storms. There is a very low (up to 5%) chance for isolated spots to receive around 4" of rainfall leading to greater flooding impacts, and the Weather Prediction Center has outlooked all of East Central Florida in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall Friday, and will continue to monitor trends for Saturday. Temperatures creep up a degree or two as the onshore flow give ways to southerly and more sunlight peaks through the clouds, though we'll remain seasonably hot with highs generally in the U80s-L90s, creeping towards the M90s inland. Muggy lows stay in the 70s.

Sunday-Wednesday...The trough over the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic is forecast to reach just offshore the Southeast seaboard Sunday or so, ushering a weakening front into the Deep South, and possibly reaching Florida Monday or Tuesday. There remains some uncertainty how far south the boundary will make it, and more uncertainty where weak disturbances may develop on the boundary as it stalls. Both impact whether East Central Florida remains in the subtropical soup or if some drier air will finally reach the area, what kinda of support there is for convection, and what flow regime we end up in. Given the uncertainty the official forecast trends towards the ensembles and blends, which call for broad stroked rain chances to remain above normal, but do decrease a bit towards mid-next week. Seasonable temperatures stay on the hotter side through the weekend, then tick down a degree or two for the work week.

MARINE

Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Today-Monday...Generally favorable winds and seas for boating, but shower and storms chances will remain above normal. A slow moving low pressure system tracking from Canada and New England into the North Atlantic will push the Bermuda high ridge axis south over Florida and the local Atlantic waters Friday into Saturday, then south of the area Sunday. A weakening cold front associated with the aforementioned low will arrive in the Deep South Sunday, and may reach the local area early next week. Low-level flow will gradually veer from ESE-SE today, to SE-SSE Friday, backing slightly in the afternoons with the east coast sea breeze. Flow becomes mainly light and variable over the weekend as the pressure gradient loosens, with winds shifting between onshore in the afternoons-evening and offshore in the overnight-mornings with the sea breeze circulation. Wind speeds 5-15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft well offshore in the Gulf Stream today settle to 1-2 ft by Saturday. Highest coverage of showers and storms in the overnights to early morning, diminishing some in the afternoons and evenings.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 731 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Broken band of showers and isolated storms are currently pushing onshore, extending near to north of KMCO/KTIX. This activity will continue into the morning, with a slight northward push and additional shower/isolated storm development will pick up into mid/late morning. Have VCSH to start at most locations, with VCTS and tempo TSRA group at KSFB to start for convection that has had some lightning activity with it at times moving toward the terminal. Elsewhere, VCTS begins after 18Z as storm coverage continues to increase, with TEMPOs in effect across the interior between 18-22Z and PROB30s in effect along the coast between 18-21Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Winds picking up to around 10 knots out of the SE today. Activity is forecast to gradually diminish beyond 00Z, with light SE winds areawide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 76 90 75 / 50 30 50 30 MCO 91 75 92 76 / 70 60 60 40 MLB 89 76 90 76 / 60 40 50 30 VRB 89 75 89 75 / 60 40 60 30 LEE 90 76 92 76 / 70 60 70 50 SFB 91 76 92 76 / 70 40 60 40 ORL 91 76 92 77 / 70 50 60 40 FPR 89 75 89 75 / 60 40 60 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.