textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Deep moisture and southwest flow will continue high afternoon and evening rain chances along the sea breeze collision early this week. There is a Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall for portions of east central Florida this afternoon. Drier air will noticeably reduce rain chances mid to late week.

- Seasonably hot today with a warming trend building through the upcoming week.

- A Moderate Risk of rip currents exists at all local beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Today-Tonight... An upper level trough across the Midwest today will begin to move eastward while deepening. At the surface, a ridge across the western Atlantic will remain in place with the axis extending over the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf. Locally, light southwest flow will continue, which will favor the west coast sea breeze with the sea breeze collision occurring over the eastern half of the peninsula late in the afternoon. Deep moisture remains over the area with forecast PW values 2+", which will support higher rain chances across the area. Scattered showers and storms have already formed along the east and west coast sea breeze this afternoon, with the west coast sea breeze being more active and the east coast sea breeze having a later start. Additional showers and lightning storms are forecast to form along the sea breezes, with peak coverage (50-70 percent) of showers and storms forecast between 4pm-9pm as the sea breeze collision occurs near or west of I-95 and east of Orlando. Light showers and storms may persist through the evening with dry conditions then forecast overnight.

Some storms this afternoon may be strong. The environment supports convection with amble instability (1800-2500J/kg MUCAPE), sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE ~ 600 J/kg), and slightly cooler temperatures aloft (-7 to -8C at 500 mb). Main storm hazards today will be frequent to excessive lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45- 55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. While the steering flow may be slightly stronger than yesterday, periods of heavy rainfall, which could lead to minor flooding in Urban and low lying areas, remain a concern in slow moving storms. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has put portions of east central Florida into a MARGINAL risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall this afternoon.

Temperatures are near to slightly above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. These temperatures combined with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 102- 107 degrees. Overnight temperatures will be warm and muggy with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Tuesday... An upper level trough across the Midwest on will steadily move eastward towards the eastern Coast through Tuesday, moving offshore Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a broad, weak low pressure near the base of the trough will move towards the eastern US through Tuesday, with an associated weak front sagging into the southeast US through early week. A surface ridge across the western Atlantic will remain in place with the axis extending over the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf. This will help keep the trough and surface boundary north of the area. Locally, south to southwest winds will persist through the period, which will keep the deep moisture in place, with forecast soundings supporting that with PW values 2+". The deeper moisture will allow the higher rain chances to continue each afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong. The environment supports this with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1400-2000J/kg), and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 400-700 J/kg). And despite the relatively warmer temperatures aloft (-7 to -6C at 500 mb), occasional shortwave energy could also aid in storms becoming stronger. Main storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds of 40-55mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Due to the lighter flow through the column, storms will be slow moving or even stationary, which increases the potential for localized flooding.

Hot and humid conditions continue through the period, with a gradual warming trend forecast (increasing a degree or two each day). Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s each day. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 102-107F Sunday and Monday, and may be near Heat Advisory criteria across portions of the area Tuesday. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect those without adequate cooling and hydration.

Wednesday-Saturday... An upper level trough over the NE US will move eastward and push offshore on Wednesday, with a weaker shortwave pushing into the eastern US and then offshore by late week. At the surface, an area of low pressure just off the NE coast will push north and eastward on Wednesday,remaining offshore. At the same time, a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will stay in place, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula and extending into the Gulf. Locally, this will result in the south to southwest flow persisting. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast each day, with models indicating a swath of drier air infiltrating in the mid levels, which may reduce overall rain chances mid to late week and into the weekend. Slightly above normal temperatures continue, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s along the coast and mid 90s across the interior.

MARINE

Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Today-Thursday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the period. South to southwest flow will persist through at least early next week, shifting onshore (east to southeast) each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Wind remaining 10 KT or less during the daytime hours before increasing to 10-15 KT each evening and overnight. Seas mostly 1-3 ft, but occasionally build to 4 ft far offshore, especially on Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each morning with scattered to numerous offshore moving storms forecast each afternoon and evening through at least early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VCTS and TEMPOs were adjusted up an hour or so at most terminals to account for an earlier start to SHRA/TSRA. SW flow at or just under 10 kt will carry TSRA toward the coastal terminals. Weak/delayed ECSB may collide with this activity with potential CIG/VIS impacts 20-00z. Storms may linger thru 00-01z before dissipating and moving offshore. Drier overnight with lighter/variable winds. Similar story tomorrow with medium to high coverage of TSRA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 92 76 93 / 30 60 30 40 MCO 76 93 76 94 / 30 70 30 60 MLB 77 91 77 91 / 40 70 30 60 VRB 75 91 75 92 / 50 60 20 60 LEE 77 93 77 93 / 20 50 20 40 SFB 77 94 77 95 / 20 70 30 40 ORL 77 93 77 93 / 30 70 30 50 FPR 75 91 75 91 / 50 60 20 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.