textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Shower and storm chances increase through mid to late week, with scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms forecast each day.

- A moderate risk of rip currents exists at all east central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Never enter the water alone and always swim near a lifeguard!

- Highs remain seasonably warm through midweek, with a slight warming trend late week and into the weekend. Heat indices may reach the low 100s Friday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently-Tonight...Debris cloud rainfall from earlier convection across south Florida has been lifting northeast as upper level winds remain relatively strong out of the southwest. Some of this light rain as well as a few showers and storms will continue to be possible across areas mainly south of a line from Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne (PoPs up to 20-40%) through the afternoon/early evening. Can't completely rule out an isolated shower/storm farther north, but rain chances remain quite low (10% or less). Mostly dry conditions then forecast over land areas overnight, with isolated to scattered showers and storms continuing over the coastal waters. Lows tonight will mostly be in the low 70s, but some normally cooler spots will likely see temps again fall into the upper 60s by daybreak. Wednesday-Friday...At the surface winds become onshore and strengthen slightly through late week as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Easterly winds around 10 mph tomorrow afternoon increase to 10-15 mph (slightly higher along the coast) for Thursday and Friday. Aloft, a weakening trough will gradually be replaced by ridge moving in from the west, pulling deeper moisture northward across the area. PW values rise to 1.7-2.0" tomorrow and then to 2.0-2.2" into late week. This will lead to rising shower and storm chances through the period, with PoPs up to 30-50% tomorrow and then 40-70% Thursday and Friday. As onshore winds become more established, isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and storms will continue to be possible along the coast during the nighttime and morning hours, with coverage becoming scattered to numerous across east central FL from late morning through the afternoon along a diffuse east coast sea breeze. Warming mid level temps and a more saturated airmass will limit overall strong storm potential, but still may see a few storms produce frequent lightning, strong gusty winds and torrential downpours. Highs will be near to slightly warmer than normal, rising from the mid to upper 80s Wednesday to upper 80s/low 90s into late week. Warm and muggy conditions forecast overnight, with lows in the 70s.

Saturday-Monday...Mid level ridge builds across Florida into the weekend and lingers through early next week, with deeper moisture shifting north and west of the region. This should lead a gradual decrease in shower and storm chances Saturday and Sunday, before rising again into early next week as a front approaches from the north. Still, scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day, with a few stronger storms continuing to be possible. Temperatures remain slightly above normal through the period, as highs continue in the upper 80s to low 90s and onshore flow keeps overnight lows in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Tonight-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions generally expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Main hazard to boaters will be increasing development of showers and storms, becoming scattered to numerous across the waters each day. Greatest coverage of this activity will occur into the overnight and morning hours, especially across the gulf stream. Otherwise, winds become onshore as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast and ridge axis remains north of the area. Winds become east-southeast tomorrow around 5-10 knots and then increase up to 10-15 knots for the rest of the period. Seas will range from 2-3 feet through Thursday, increasing up to 3-4 feet Friday and into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Dry conditions are forecast for a majority of the forecast area today. However, rain showers moving northward into the Treasure Coast are expected to lead to -SHRA through around 0Z, with PROB30s for embedded TSRA and MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VCSH looks to return to the Treasure Coast after 10Z, expanding northward and becoming VCTS through 18Z. Higher coverage of showers and storms Wednesday will likely require additional VCTS past the current TAF period (after 19Z at MCO). SSE/SE winds 10-12 kts or less prevail in the afternoons, becoming light and variable from 0Z into the mid-morning hours.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage due to tidal effects. River levels are forecast to gradually subside through Minor Flood Stage this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 71 86 75 87 / 10 20 20 40 MCO 71 89 73 90 / 10 40 20 70 MLB 72 87 76 88 / 10 30 20 50 VRB 71 88 75 88 / 20 50 30 60 LEE 72 88 73 90 / 10 40 20 70 SFB 72 88 73 89 / 10 40 10 60 ORL 72 88 73 89 / 10 40 20 70 FPR 71 87 75 87 / 20 50 30 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.