textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today.

- Remaining mostly dry over the next several days with a warming trend; Near record highs in the lower 90s late this week and into the weekend over the interior.

- Next cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night into early Monday and bring a small chance for showers early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge aloft remains extended across the area as surface ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic persists north of central FL. This will continue a warm and mostly dry pattern across the region today, with highs near to slightly above normal, ranging from near 80 degrees at the coast and low to mid 80s across the interior. Despite an overall dry airmass (PW values around 0.7-0.8"), there is enough moisture in the lower levels for the easterly flow to generate a few onshore moving sprinkles, mainly along the Treasure Coast through this morning and into the afternoon. Radar imagery has already shown some very light showers move onshore Martin County. However, not expecting much in the way of measurable rainfall with this activity, so rain chances remain low (10% or less). Models show airmass drying out even further in tonight which should end any of these light showers and sprinkles. Easterly winds increase up to 10-15 mph today, with gusts to around 20 mph. Onshore winds then diminish into tonight with temps falling into the mid 50s to low 60s across the interior, and in the low to mid 60s at the coast. HREF guidance shows a better potential for patchy fog late tonight through early Wednesday morning across to northwest of the I-4 corridor.

A High Risk for life-threatening rip currents persists at area beaches today due to a lingering swell. Entering the surf is not advised.

Wednesday-Sunday...Ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week into the weekend, which will weaken the onshore flow. Ridge aloft will remain extended across the area, continuing a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast Wednesday and Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb into late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the low to mid 80s at the coast and then climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values, but greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still look to be at Leesburg Friday through Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday...A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area Sunday night into early Monday. This will finally lead to a cooling trend into early next week and also bring a return of rain chances. However, for now PoPs remain on the lower end (around 20- 30%), as there remains some differences in overall moisture return and shower coverage between the GFS/ECMWF, with the GFS still slightly wetter than the ECMWF. Both models show a period of breezy to windy northeast to east winds developing behind the front that will continue into Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Boating conditions will continue to become more favorable the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the waters through midweek and then settles southward across central Florida late this week and into the weekend. E/SE winds will generally continue over the next several days in the prevailing flow as ridge axis remains to the north, and then into the afternoon/evening hours Friday through Sunday with the developing east coast sea breeze as ridge settles across the area. Wind speeds will range from 5-15 knots, with seas 3-5 feet today and Wednesday falling to 2-4 feet into late week, and then 2-3 feet into the weekend. A few light showers and sprinkles may develop from time to time in the onshore flow, but overall dry conditions are forecast for the next several days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at all ECFL terminals today. ISO onshore moving -SHRA possible through the day, but chances (10% or less) and coverage not high enough for even VCSH mention. Otherwise dry conditions continue. ESE winds pick up to 8-13 kts with occasionally stronger gusts in the late morning, highest along the Space/Treasure Coasts in the afternoon behind the sea breeze. Winds then settle to 5-10 kts after around 00Z, and become light later in the night. Conditions become slightly more favorable for fog development late tonight into early Wednesday morning. HREF has a typical 10-30% chance for IFR VIS reductions driven by a handful of members, from KMCO- KTIX northward, while NBM/LAMP chances are 5% or less at all ECFL terminals. Given the low chances from the latter keeping TAFs VFR for this package, and will monitor trends.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Prevailing onshore winds will generally continue through Thursday as ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains just north of the area. Easterly winds will increase up to 10-15 mph each afternoon through midweek, with strongest winds generally at the coast. Gusts to around 20 mph will also be possible today. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through late week, with a gradual warming trend continuing over the next several days. Onshore flow will keep Min RH values above critical levels in the mid 40s to mid 50s at the coast. However, well inland, across areas near to northwest of I-4, Min RH values as low as 35-40 percent are forecast this afternoon, with more critical values in the low to mid 30s across this far inland portion of east central Florida Wednesday and Thursday. However, wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across this area where lower RH values occur. Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good both today and Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Record Highs for April 17-19:

April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 81 60 80 60 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 84 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 65 79 65 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 80 63 80 63 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 86 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 80 62 80 62 / 10 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.