textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Scattered showers and storms continue today, becoming locally numerous in coverage along the sea breeze collision. A few strong storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, localized wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall. - Drier air begins to build mid week, reducing rain chances Wednesday and especially on Thursday.

- A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Today-Wednesday... A weak surface boundary slowly sinks through the eastern U.S. as low pressure moves moves offshore the mid Atlantic coast. High pressure extending from the western Atlantic and over the south-central Florida peninsula holds in place keeping the surface boundary well north of the area. A persistent pattern of light south to southwest flow continues to favor an earlier west coast sea breeze and a collision across the eastern side of the peninsula. One more day of scattered to locally numerous showers and storms (PoP ~40-60%) is forecast today before drier air begins to cut back PoPs (20-40%) into Wednesday. Overall the storm environment remains similar to early this week with modeled 500 mb temperatures around -7C to -8C, high surface instability, and weak shear. Isolated stronger storms along boundary collisions will be capable of frequent lighting strikes and wind gusts of 45-55 mph. Minor flooding of urban and low lying areas remains a hazard in slow moving or stationary storms. Slightly above normal temperatures are forecast outside of storms today, mostly spreading the low to mid 90s. With lower storm coverage on Wednesday, temperatures increase a few degrees, more widely ranging the mid 90s across the interior and low to mid 90s along the coast. Current ensemble probabilities may even suggest a medium chance (40-50%) for inland areas north of Leesburg and Sanford to reach the upper 90s on Wednesday. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock!

Thursday-Monday... Waves of drier air are forecast Thursday and into early this weekend as the next plume of Saharan Dust passes over the region. Conditions remain mostly dry on Thursday with only a thin ribbon of deeper moisture supporting low rain chances north of I-4. The next localized band of higher moisture could bring rain chances in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee on Friday before widely scattered showers and storms return areawide Saturday and into early next week. As we transition to a generally drier period than what has been seen recently, a building mid level ridge and increasing subsidence over the region will shift the greatest forecast emphasis towards a period of above normal temperatures. By Thursday and through the weekend, inland locations near and north of I-4 are forecast to widely spread the upper 90s. Further south, hot temperatures in the mid 90s are forecast while the coast may range the low to mid 90s each day. A building widespread Major HeatRisk becomes locally Extreme through portions of the I-4 corridor, impacting those without adequate cooling and hydration. As ridging amplifies over the central U.S. late this weekend and into early next week, a mid to upper level trough digs into the southeast U.S., and temperatures gradually fall a few degrees by Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

High pressure continues to maintain favorable boating conditions across the local Atlantic waters this week. Light southerly flow persists, shifting onshore (southeast) as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Southwest winds increase 10-15 kts across the open Atlantic each evening and overnight. Seas mostly 1-2 ft build to become more widely 2-3 ft by Thursday. Scattered coverage of offshore moving lightning storms is forecast this afternoon and evening, before drier air reduces rain chances mid to late week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/storms. Light and variable winds are forecast to increase from the SW at 5-10kts before backing SE at the coastal TAFs into the afternoon. VCTS is forecast after 17Z/18Z with PROB30/TEMPO groups for TSRA into the aftn/even before rain chances diminish into the late evening hours. The potential exists for a few strong storms across ECFL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 20 10 MCO 94 77 95 78 / 50 30 40 10 MLB 91 77 91 78 / 50 20 30 0 VRB 91 76 92 77 / 40 20 10 0 LEE 93 78 95 79 / 40 10 30 10 SFB 95 77 96 78 / 50 20 30 10 ORL 93 78 94 79 / 50 30 40 10 FPR 91 75 91 77 / 40 20 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.