textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 116 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Areas affected by catastrophic flooding remain extremely sensitive to any additional rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect along the coast and for Okeechobee County this morning. Avoid flooded roads, and do not walk or wade through floodwater! Rain chances decrease to 50-60% today, with most locations receiving less than an inch. There is a 5-10% chance for isolated rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches through this evening.

- Dangerous beach conditions persist, with a high risk of life- threatening rip currents and rough surf at all east coast beaches of Central Florida today. Please stay out of the ocean.

- Rain chances continue to drop through the week, with most areas rain-free from Thursday through the weekend. The next significant cold front may approach the area by Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

An upper-air disturbance continues to meander in the eastern Gulf this morning, with vorticity perturbations extending over South Florida. This feature has become detached from the jet stream and is expected to weaken further over the next couple of days. It has interacted with unusually rich moisture and persistent onshore flow off the Atlantic to produce heavy to extreme precipitation over parts of the state over the last 48 hours.

The subtropical jet stream remains active across the Central and Western U.S. A pair of shortwaves is traversing the jet, the first now reaching Missouri and the second over the Great Basin. These two disturbances are forecast to merge into a positively tilted trough over the Ohio Valley by Friday. At the surface, high pressure should slowly lose its influence over the Eastern Seaboard later this week, allowing onshore flow to abate. As the trough moves north of Florida from Friday into Saturday, a diffuse cold front should drift toward the area. The rich moisture currently in place will decrease to near or just above seasonal norms from late Thursday through at least Saturday. However, the late-week cold front brings little to no cold air advection.

By Sunday, ensemble guidance shows a potential phasing of additional subtropical and polar jet stream energy over the Mississippi Valley, eventually carving out a trough over the Southeast U.S. by next Monday. There remains some disagreement in its depth and timing, but a progressive and positively-tilted trough is favored. Its cold front is likely to arrive sometime from late Sunday into Monday. A brief surge of deeper moisture is noted ahead of the front, and at least modest cold air advection appears likely once it passes.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Now - Tonight...

Following catastrophic flooding across portions of east central Florida on Monday, even modest additional rainfall could exacerbate ongoing flooding. Thankfully, the persistent convergence and forcing responsible for the extreme rainfall have diminished considerably. However, we still have plentiful moisture and onshore flow, capable of producing occasional downpours. While this is expected to produce additional rainfall of less than an inch in most spots, it won't take much more than that to cause water levels to rise where flooding is ongoing. The Flood Watch remains in effect for coastal counties and Okeechobee County until 10 am, and a Flood Warning continues for areas along the coast that received the heaviest rainfall totals until 9:30 am. Rain chances today range from 50-60% across much of the area, but the rain should not be continuous.

Flooding is ongoing in many places, and there are abandoned vehicles in some neighborhoods. Avoid driving or wading through floodwater! Flooding will be slow to recede due to saturated soils, high water tables, and limited drainage capacity.

Some breaks of sunshine are expected today, which should warm many spots back into the lower 80s. Breezy east winds continue, with gusts 15-25 mph. Rough surf and life-threatening rip currents persist at all east coast beaches of Central Florida. Additionally, minor tidal flooding remains possible, especially in Martin County this afternoon.

Wednesday - Friday...

Onshore flow weakens, but moisture remains sufficient for scattered showers and isolated storm development on Wednesday. Rain chances will range from 20% at the coast to 30-50% over the interior. On average, light rainfall totals are expected. By Thursday and Friday, deeper moisture will begin to scour out, allowing rain chances to drop to 20% or less to end the week. Warm temperatures are forecast, with highs in the mid 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Weekend - Early Next Week...

We should continue our drying trend for much of the weekend, as rain chances hold at 20% or less. Highs will remain warm in the lower 80s, but many areas should dip into the 60s at night.

Uncertainty remains, but the next cold front is favored to wait until Monday to reach Central Florida. The amount of moisture and the strength of the front will dictate rain chances, which for now are 20-30%. Some cooler air is expected to follow the front next week. Statistical guidance currently gives us a 60-70% chance of failing to reach the 80-degree mark next Tuesday, along with a 50-70% chance of reaching the 50s by next Tuesday night.

MARINE

Issued at 116 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Moderate to fresh onshore flow continues on the southern flank of a strong surface high to the north of Florida. This is causing rough seas and hazardous boating conditions. As the high weakens from Wednesday into late this week, winds are forecast to decrease, allowing seas to subside, especially nearshore. Low pressure in the Atlantic, to the northeast of the Bahamas, is forecast to send a long-period swell toward the local waters from Friday night into the weekend. This may cause hazardous conditions, especially near inlets. A weak cold front may drift over the waters late Friday into Saturday with little to no impact.

E winds 10-20 kt today, decreasing to around 10 kt on Wednesday before backing to the NE 5-10 kt on Thursday. Seas subside from 5-7 ft today to 3-6 ft on Wednesday and Thursday. A long-period swell (5-7 ft at 10-12 sec) begins to arrive on Friday, peaking early Saturday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Onshore-moving showers are forecast through the afternoon hours, with the highest coverage focused across the interior. Maintained TEMPOs for the interior terminals starting at 18Z, but cut them down to only run through 20Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to SHRA. VCSH at all coastal terminals this afternoon. By 00Z, showers are forecast to diminish areawide with mostly dry and VFR conditions anticipated through the overnight hours. Some slight signal for MVFR CIGs at some sites, but confidence was too low to go for it with this forecast package. VCSH chances increase once again (20-30%) from MLB southward tomorrow starting at 14Z, with chances expanding inland and towards MCO after 18Z. Easterly winds prevail through the period around 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 83 68 84 / 20 10 0 0 MCO 71 86 69 86 / 10 20 10 10 MLB 74 84 71 84 / 20 20 0 0 VRB 74 85 70 85 / 20 20 10 0 LEE 70 86 69 86 / 20 30 10 10 SFB 71 86 69 86 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 71 86 70 86 / 10 20 10 10 FPR 73 84 70 84 / 20 20 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ159- 164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550- 552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ575.