textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers along the coast each morning and night with coverage of shower and storms becoming scattered to numerous each afternoon through late week.

- A moderate risk of rip currents exists at all east central Florida Atlantic beaches again today. Never enter the water alone and always swim near a lifeguard!

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through late week and into early next week, with a warming trend expected through at least this weekend. Heat indices may reach the low 100s by Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level trough over the eastern seaboard will push offshore. A surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly shift northward, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally, onshore (east to southeast) winds will remain in place, with speeds generally 5-10 mph. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to around 10 mph behind the sea breeze. Moisture will continue to increase, with forecast PW values rising to 1.7-2.2" this afternoon, with the highest values occurring around Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. This will support increasing rain and storm chances today, with a low to medium (20-50 percent) chance of rain. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers will be possible along the coast through the morning hours before coverage increases to widely scattered and shifts across all of east central Florida this afternoon. Lightning storm activity will also increase this afternoon. Greatest coverage of showers and storms will be across the Treasure Coast and around Lake Okeechobee this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will once again be possible along the coast through tonight. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 45 mph, and locally heavy downpours.

Temperatures will continue a slight warming trend today, with afternoon highs forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, and upper 80s to near 90 degrees across the interior. Peak heat indices will be in the low to mid 90s. Warm and muggy conditions anticipated for tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday-Friday... An upper high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift westward, towards the Florida peninsula, through late week. At the surface, high pressure off the Carolina coast will remain in place through late week, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally, east to southeast winds will dominate, becoming enhanced (around 10-15 mph) each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Moisture increases over the area through the period, with forecast PW values raising to 2.0-2.3" Thursday afternoon and 2.2-2.6" on Friday afternoon. This will result in increasing rain and storm chances through the period. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers will continue to be possible along the coast through the overnight hours and into each morning, with coverage increasing to scattered to numerous and shifting across all of east central Florida each afternoon. There is a medium (40-60 percent) chance of rain on Thursday, and a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance of rain on Friday. Greatest potential for storms will be across the interior, west of I-95, each afternoon. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. A few stronger storms may be possible, however due to the warming mid level temps and saturated airmass, the potential for stronger storms is limited.

A slight warming trend will continue, with warm and humid conditions forecast. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with peak heat indices reaching 98-103 degrees. Overnight lows will be warm and muggy with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday... An upper level ridge will build over the Florida peninsula this weekend and will remain in place through early next week. At the surface, a cold front will move into the Deep South this weekend before shifting southward into northern Florida early next week and into north-central Florida on Tuesday. Locally, east to southeast winds at 5-10 mph will dominate through Monday, before winds become east to northeast and increase to 10-15 mph on Tuesday as the cold front moves through the area. Deep moisture will shift north and west of the region this weekend, which will lead to a gradual decrease in shower and storm chances Saturday and Sunday. Moisture will then increase over the area into next week as the front approaches and pushes through, resulting in rain and storm chances rising into early next week. However, scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. Temperatures will continue to be slightly above normal for this time of year with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be warm with lows in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 252 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Today-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast through this week and into next week as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast and ridge axis remains north of the area. East to southeast winds will prevail through the weekend with speeds 5-10 KT increasing to 10-15 KT each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Winds then become south to southeast on Monday with speeds 5-10 KT as a cold front approaches the local area. Seas 2ft today will build to 2-3ft Thursday and Friday, and 3-4ft on Saturday and Sunday before subsiding to 2-3ft on Monday. Rain and Storm coverage will increase starting today, with scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast across the waters each day. Greatest coverage of this activity will occur into the overnight and morning hours, especially across the gulf stream.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms with onshore flow in place. VCTS is forecast at all TAF sites between 17Z-19Z with PROB30/TEMPO groups for MVFR CIGs/VIS between 18Z-24Z at all TAFs sites except for KDAB and KTIX. Expect light and variable winds to increase from the east at 4-9kts at 15Z/16Z before weakening tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 86 75 87 76 / 20 20 40 10 MCO 89 73 90 75 / 40 20 50 10 MLB 87 76 88 77 / 30 20 50 30 VRB 88 75 88 76 / 40 40 50 30 LEE 89 72 90 74 / 40 20 60 10 SFB 88 73 89 75 / 40 20 50 10 ORL 88 73 89 75 / 40 20 50 10 FPR 87 75 87 75 / 50 40 60 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.