textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Localized Flooding Potential: Another round of heavy downpours is expected today and tonight. A Flood Watch remains in effect for coastal counties, where there is a 5-10% chance of 4 to 5 inches of additional rainfall. This could cause flooding in urban and poorly- drained areas.

- Strong Northeast Winds: Windy conditions will persist through tonight. Expect peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph along the immediate coast and 30 to 40 mph elsewhere. Continue to secure loose and lightweight items. Sporadic power outages remain possible. While not as windy, it will remain breezy for the next several days.

- Dangerous Surf: Breaking waves of 8 to 12 feet will make the ocean extremely hazardous through late this week. Numerous life- threatening rip currents are expected through the weekend. Please stay out of the ocean. Occasional run-up to the dune line during high tide may cause minor to moderate beach erosion.

- Pattern Shift Coming: Drier weather arrives beginning Friday as high pressure takes control heading into the weekend. A warming trend will follow, with temperatures climbing well into the 80s next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Surface analysis places a cold front over the Everglades early this morning. With a large continental high across the Northeast U.S., a tight pressure gradient has gathered over the Florida Peninsula. Winds just off the surface are quite intense, ranging from 30 to 40 kt out of the northeast at H925 (2.5 kft). Further aloft, a brief period of subsidence is likely occurring as the first shortwave exits into the Atlantic. However, water vapor imagery reveals another stream of vorticity in the northern Gulf. By later this morning, a favorable subtropical jet configuration (LFQ) for broad ascent should once again reach the state. Anomalously high total moisture values persist over the peninsula, but the highest PWs have settled into South Florida.

Confidence in the large-scale pattern is fairly high, but mesoscale details, such as the exact positioning and timing of deep moisture convergence, are still of lower confidence. Over the next 24-36 hours, guidance holds above-normal moisture and strong onshore flow over the district. H925 winds are forecast to decrease slightly but then ramp back up to 35-40 kt later today as the low-level height gradient tightens again. Surface frictional convergence along the Atlantic coast, combined with periods of enhanced upper-air diffluence and PVA, keeps the area in a favorable environment for occasionally high to excessive rainfall rates.

Global ensembles track the last significant shortwave within the subtropical jet out into the Atlantic by Thursday afternoon. As a ridge at H5 blossoms over the Lower Mississippi Valley, drier air to the north of the state should be advected southward beginning Friday. 07/12Z cluster analysis of the grand ensemble exhibited high confidence that the ridge will slowly push eastward this weekend, its axis reaching the state by Sunday or Monday. Ensemble means suggest that H5 heights approach 590 dam, or the 98th percentile of April climatology, by Monday. Then, toward the middle of next week, 60% of members hold the strong ridge over the Southeast, while the remaining members suppress it as a trough pushes into the Great Lakes.

All told, the pattern will continue to support cooler, unsettled, and impactful weather through Thursday. Thereafter, a stark shift is likely to occur as large-scale subsidence overtakes Florida for several days.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Through Thursday...

Excessive Rainfall:

Thus far, excessive rainfall amounts have been few and far between, limiting flooding concerns. That trend is alive and well at this hour, with only low-topped moderate showers on radar. However, convective-allowing models seem to agree that we aren't quite done with at least some risk of flooding. With the factors listed in the overview coming into place to provide lift, we expect another round of downpours to form through today and tonight. It's been a bit of a struggle to pin down where this activity will concentrate, but the setup favors the coast. In particular, areas south of Cape Canaveral appear to be positioned best for heavy rain development over the next 18-24 hours.

More areas of rain should develop through Thursday as this pattern is slow to change. Additional rainfall through the next couple of days should range from 1/2" to 1 1/2" over the interior, and 1-3" along the coast. There is a 5-10% chance of locally higher totals from 2-3" over the interior and upwards of 4-5" along the I-95 corridor. Due to the potential for isolated excessive rainfall amounts, the Flood Watch remains in effect through at least this evening along the coast from Volusia County southward. The locations most likely to be affected are urban and poorly-drained communities, especially those that are already saturated and receive additional heavy rain.

Thunderstorms:

Plentiful cloud cover will limit instability, but a few storms are still possible, with around 20-30% coverage today. These storms may produce briefly gusty winds, but with the already strong gradient winds, it may be hard to discern a significant difference.

Wind:

Breezy to windy conditions persist, and a Wind Advisory remains in effect along the coast until late tonight. Interior locales will go beneath a Wind Advisory this afternoon and/or evening. The expected second ramp-up in boundary-layer winds this afternoon and evening should mix down to the surface due to adequate lapse rates. Widespread northeasterly peak gusts from 30-40 mph are expected with this next surge of wind today. On the coast, most likely peak gusts should be a touch higher, in the 35-45 mph range. This is also where there is a 5-15% chance of a 50+ mph gust.

Continue to secure loose or lightweight items through at least tonight due to these strong winds!

Continued breezy on Thursday, but wind speeds should lessen just a bit to 20-30 mph, with a low chance for a few peak gusts to 35 mph on the coast.

Beaches:

Surf has already become dangerous and will remain so through the next couple of days. Breakers of 8-12 feet are likely through Thursday, producing numerous life-threatening rip currents. In addition, occasional run-up to the dune line at high tide has the potential to cause minor to moderate beach erosion.

The High Surf Advisory will stay in effect through at least Thursday. Please stay out of the ocean, and if you head to the beach, never turn your back on the water!

Friday - Early Next Week...

Deep-layer high pressure slowly takes control of our weather through this period. With the surface ridge to our north, we expect continued onshore winds each day, though it more manageable than what we have now (gusts 20-25 mph). Aside from a low shower chance (20%) on Friday, we have a dry forecast for the weekend and into next week. Considering the overall pattern, the onshore flow will keep us a little cooler than we would otherwise be. Most spots climb from the upper 70s Friday into the low/mid 80s by Monday. As winds lessen next week, more widespread mid/upper 80s will become common, especially over the interior. Greater Orlando has a 10-20% chance of reaching 90 deg F in about a week.

Though the weather will be more inviting, beach conditions will remain hazardous with rough surf persisting through the weekend. A high risk of rip currents is also expected.

MARINE

Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Dangerous conditions exist over the entire local Atlantic. A front has stalled near the Florida Keys, well to the south of continental high pressure over the Northeast U.S. This has set up a tight pressure gradient along the Eastern Seaboard, causing frequent gale-force gusts and extremely agitated seas. The gale- force gusts diminish on Thursday, but expect rough seas to persist. From Friday onward, fresh to strong onshore breezes will continue as the high anchors over the Appalachians. This will prolong hazardous boating conditions through much of the weekend.

A Gale Warning will remain hoisted through late tonight for the entire local Atlantic. Frequent gusts to 35-40 kt with seas 11-18 feet through tonight. Thereafter, Small Craft Advisories will be required for at least 2-3 more days as winds and seas will be slow to subside. Seas 10-15 ft on Thursday with winds NE 20-25 kt. By Saturday, seas 5-8 ft with winds NE 15-20 kt.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Tight pressure gradient continues over the area with the former front to the south and strong high pressure to the north building in across the Eastern Seaboard. Breezy/Windy/Gusty conditions will exist areawide. NERLY winds 15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts, perhaps 40 kts at times along the immediate coast. Conditions remain breezy/gusty into tonight 10-20 kts with higher gusts - highest values along the coast. Fairly quick, onshore-moving rain showers continue with models suggesting greatest concentrations later today across south Brevard and the Treasure Coast. ISOLD lighting storms possible here too. We continue to see a mix of VFR/MVFR with localized IFR CIGs, esp in passing showers. Prevailing showers and TEMPO groups inclusive as confidence allows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 65 75 64 78 / 50 50 10 10 MCO 66 74 64 78 / 50 60 10 10 MLB 67 76 67 78 / 60 70 30 10 VRB 66 77 66 78 / 70 60 30 20 LEE 64 77 61 81 / 30 50 10 0 SFB 64 77 63 80 / 50 60 10 10 ORL 65 76 63 80 / 50 60 10 10 FPR 66 77 65 78 / 70 60 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-141-154-159- 164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ041-141-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ044>046-053-144.

Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ058.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572- 575.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.