textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Higher coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms will persist into next week. Main threats will be lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall from slow moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk over Central Florida, residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Please swim near a lifeguard.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Current-Tonight... The 15Z XMR sounding has shown a deep column of moisture through 15,000ft with light winds observed throughout the profile. Isolated, slow moving storms have started to develop along the sea breeze early this afternoon with additional development getting underway across the interior where temperatures are observed in the upper 80s and low 90s. Increasing coverage (60-80%) of showers and storms will peak towards the central peninsula, near and south of Orlando, late this afternoon and evening along a sea breeze collision. A localized heavy rainfall threat will exist again this afternoon and evening, and slow moving or stationary storms will be capable of quick 2-4" accumulations over a 60-90 minute period. Surface instability greater than 2,500 J/kg will allow for quick updrafts and lightning strikes, however, a slightly drier layer aloft and warm 500mb temperatures around -6C should generally limit stronger storm development. Convection may linger a few hours beyond sunset with dry conditions then forecast overnight. Low temperatures will remain mild and muggy with most locations in the mid 70s.

Saturday-Friday... A persistent summertime pattern is forecast as high pressure holds control at the surface and aloft. The surface ridge axis sinks southward early this weekend, settling near south Florida and the Florida Straits into next week. Light southwest flow develops locally, modestly increasing Monday and Tuesday as a cold front sags into the southeast U.S. Mid level ridging will continue to dominate through the next week, keeping the front north of the Melbourne CWA. An offshore flow regime combined with near to above seasonal moisture will favor at least scattered showers and storms across east central Florida each afternoon and evening. Current trends suggest the greatest area-wide coverage (50-70%) of diurnal showers and storms occurring Sunday, coincident with the period of highest moisture (PWAT ~1.9-2.2"). A better pinned sea breeze should occur Monday into mid week, and this will begin to favor the best rain chances in vicinity of I-95 each afternoon and evening. Slow moving or stationary storms will continue to promote a locally heavy rainfall threat which may lead to nuisance or minor flooding of urban or low lying areas. Otherwise, isolated stronger storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds of 40-50 mph. Brief funnel clouds or waterspouts may be possible along chaotic boundary collisions, particularly from Monday onward as the southwest flow slightly increases.

Outside of storms, the forecast's focus is directed to a period of hazardous heat. Above normal temperatures are forecast each day with highs ranging the low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s inland. Deep moisture within the low levels will further promote peak heat index values between 100-107F each afternoon, and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk will expand across east central Florida, including the Orlando Metro. Overnight lows mostly in the mid to upper 70s will continue muggy conditions through the early morning hours. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

MARINE

Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

High pressure will maintain favorable boating conditions this weekend and into next week. Light offshore flow each morning shifts southeast near the coast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Winds then veer south to southwest each evening, increasing 10-15 kts. Seas mostly 2-3 ft. Chances for showers and storms remain near the coast on Saturday with increasing coverage of offshore moving storms building into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR at ECFL terminals outside of convection. ISO-SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA have developed have developed across portions of CFL this afternoon, highest coverage along the sea breezes which have just started to march inland. Light/VRB winds increase to 5-10 kts from the ESE-SE behind the boundary, shifting to the S-SE later this evening. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected to increase along and ahead of the sea breezes through the afternoon, and highest coverage of TSRA across the interior after 22Z along the sea breeze collision. CAMs have still be a bit inconsistent with TSRA chances at KMCO and other inland terminals, but have enough confidence for impacts to add TEMPOS 20Z-00Z. Most TSRA/+SHRA should stay west of the coastal terminals, but brief gusts/MVFR CIGs can't be ruled out through 22Z. TSRA/SHRA diminish between 00Z-03Z, and winds become light/VRB again overnight. Rinse/repeat Saturday, with winds remaining light/VRB until the sea breezes develops, and SHRA/TSRA developing in the early afternoon with a collision near the inland terminals in the late evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 93 76 93 / 10 40 20 60 MCO 75 93 76 93 / 30 60 50 70 MLB 76 91 77 91 / 10 40 20 70 VRB 74 91 75 91 / 10 40 10 70 LEE 76 94 77 93 / 30 40 30 30 SFB 76 95 77 94 / 20 50 30 70 ORL 76 94 77 93 / 30 50 40 70 FPR 74 90 75 90 / 10 50 10 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.