textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 239 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Poor boating conditions offshore and a High Risk of rip currents at area beaches will persist through late week.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop over the Atlantic and push inland most afternoons through early next week. There is a low (20% or less) chance of lightning storms.

- Temperatures will remain well above normal over the next several days, with high temps reaching the mid to upper 80s across the interior. These will be near record values for inland sites this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Today-Saturday... A surface ridge axis remains north of central Florida, keeping east-southeast flow in place locally. A diffuse east coast sea breeze will steadily move inland each day prompting isolated to scattered showers (20-40%), particularly across the interior. Slightly higher afternoon rain chances exist Saturday (40- 50%) with an increase in moisture. Surface heating and sea breeze/lake breeze interactions along with cold temperatures aloft should be supportive for a few lighting strikes each afternoon. However, model sounding profiles suggest a limited environment for more organized convection due to weak shear and drier mid levels. High temperatures in the low 80s across the coastal counties will reach the mid 80s across the interior today. Slightly warmer Friday and Saturday with low 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland. Low temperatures hold mostly in the mid 60s areawide.

Continuing to monitor the potential for patchy fog early this morning, but low level winds may be just strong enough to inhibit development. Confidence in fog formation currently remains low with HREF probabilities ~10-30% for areas near and north of I-4. NBM probabilities may suggest slightly better chances for fog Friday and Saturday mornings, and will monitor as high-res models extend further in time.

A high risk of rip currents, along with rough surf, exists at all east central Florida beaches. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the chilly surf is not advised!

Sunday-Wednesday... Surface high pressure is nudged slightly further into the western Atlantic as a cold front moves across the Great Lakes and offshore the northeast U.S. coast. Winds shift more out of the southeast early next week, but remain east-southeast along the Treasure Coast, further south of the ridge axis. Mostly isolated showers are forecast Sunday, primarily driven by the east coast sea breeze and surface heating. A slightly drier airmass advects across east central Florida Monday and Tuesday with enough agreement in global ensembles to keep PoPs below 15% for most of the forecast area. A gradual warming trend will continue with low 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s west of I-95 each afternoon. Low temperatures are mostly forecast in the mid 60s, although becoming a little cooler across rural locations.

MARINE

Issued at 239 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

A surface ridge axis remains north of the local waters, keeping east-southeast flow in place. Winds around 10-15 kts increase to 15-20 kts offshore each night through late week. Boating conditions will remain poor offshore through early Friday as seas up to 6 ft gradually subside. Otherwise, seas subside 3-5 ft into early next week. Rounds of isolated to scattered showers and occasional lightning storms are forecast through Sunday before a slightly drier airmass spreads over the waters next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 609 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Biggest challenge remains fog/stratus development early in the period. 925 winds remain a bit stronger this morning and suspect more localized fog/stratus, if any forms at all. We continue to monitor and address prevailing/TEMPOs as appropriate. Greatest threat continues to be inland from the coast and across the I-4 corridor. Light to moderate easterly flow at the surface continues this morning and expect ESE/SE winds 7-14 kts during the day with some higher gusts, esp along the coast. Low threat for ISOLD-WDLY SCT aftn/early evening convection - highest chances over the interior later in the day. Brief MVFR in convection. Otherwise, generally VFR through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 63 82 64 / 20 0 20 10 MCO 84 67 85 67 / 30 10 30 10 MLB 80 66 81 66 / 20 10 20 10 VRB 81 66 82 66 / 20 10 20 20 LEE 86 65 87 66 / 40 10 40 10 SFB 85 65 86 66 / 30 10 30 10 ORL 84 67 86 67 / 30 10 30 10 FPR 81 65 82 66 / 20 10 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.