textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Heat concerns persist across east central Florida over the next couple of days thanks to above-normal afternoon highs and peak heat indices nearing or reaching Heat Advisory criteria.

- Increasing moisture will promote a more seasonable pattern of scattered showers and storms areawide from Tuesday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Current-Tonight... GOES-19 PWAT imagery indicates a sharp moisture gradient across central Florida this afternoon with values ranging 2.0-2.1" from Cape Canaveral and Orlando northward and as low as 1.5" further south through Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Isolated showers have developed within the deepest moisture across north-cental Florida as the east and west coast sea breezes move inland. Expect more isolated to widely scattered showers and storms near and north of a line from Melbourne to Kissimmee through the afternoon and evening, driven by increased surface heating and a few boundary interactions. A few strong storms which may develop will be capable of wind gusts 35-50 mph, frequent lighting, and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, hot conditions continue with highs on track to reach the mid to upper 90s across the interior, and a Heat Advisory continues through 8PM this evening for peak heat index values of 108-112F. Isolated convection along the sea breeze collision may linger into the evening, but dry conditions are expected overnight. Low temperatures should mostly range the mid to upper 70s.

Monday... Hot conditions continue as ridging holds mostly stagnant aloft. At the surface, a ridge axis shifts south of the area as a weak frontal boundary sinks into the southeast U.S. This will favor light offshore flow, turning southeast as a delayed sea breeze develops in the afternoon. Above normal temperatures persist with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s. Peak heat index values widely ranging 106-110F will likely prompt the need for another Heat Advisory. Moisture advecting southward through the Orlando Metro should allow for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms (20-45%), providing some relief from the heat late in the day. A few strong storms which develop will be capable of isolated wind gusts 35-50 mph, frequent lighting, and torrential downpours. Drier air to the south should limit rain chances to less than 20% across much of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.

Tuesday-Saturday... High pressure in the mid levels gradually broadens through late week as troughing digs across the midwest and into the eastern U.S. The surface ridge axis remains mostly south of the area, perhaps inching northward towards Lake Okeechobee late in the period. Offshore flow should maintain hot conditions, especially through Wednesday, as highs continue in the mid 90s across the interior with localized areas reaching the upper 90s. Temperatures then show a decreasing trend, finally returning closer to normal late week. Moisture continues to advect southward into Tuesday, prompting a more seasonal pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms (40-60%) areawide each day.

MARINE

Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A surface ridge axis slides south of the local waters on Monday. This will lead to a period of prevailing light offshore flow, shifting south to southeast late each day as the sea breeze develops. Seas of 1-2 ft build up to 3 ft offshore Tuesday. Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms will be possible north of the Cape on Monday, while remaining mostly dry further south. Moisture continues to spread southward on Tuesday prompting higher coverage (40-60%) of offshore moving storms areawide through late week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are largely forecast to continue tonight through tomorrow. A storm has developed near KDAB and the sea breeze collision near the I-4 corridor may still lead to isolated shower/storm development this evening. Have therefore continued VCTS for KMCO/KISM/KSFB/KDAB through 01Z, which may have to be extended depending on convective trends this evening. Will also monitor for any brief TEMPO groups for IFR/MVFR impacts from this activity. Otherwise, any convection should diminish and end through late evening, with dry conditions overnight through Monday morning. Greatest potential for showers and storms into tomorrow afternoon/evening will be near to north of KMCO-KTIX (rain chances 20-50%). For now have only included VCTS in the TAFs starting around 19-20Z for all sites north of KMLB. From KMLB south, dry conditions are forecast to continue through Monday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable tonight, picking up out of the west around 6-8 knots by late Monday morning. Sea breeze may struggle to develop near/north of KTIX Monday, but should form farther south and push inland into the afternoon, with winds becoming E/SE around 8-10 knots.

CLIMATE

Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site Aug 16 Aug 17 Daytona 97 (2023) 96 (1990) Leesburg 96 (2011) 98 (2005) Sanford 97 (2023) 97 (2005) Orlando 101 (1918) 99 (1929) Melbourne 96 (2022) 97 (2022) Vero Beach 96 (2022) 98 (2022) Fort Pierce 97 (1948) 97 (2022)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 94 78 94 / 20 50 10 60 MCO 78 97 78 96 / 30 20 20 60 MLB 78 95 78 95 / 0 10 20 60 VRB 76 95 76 94 / 0 10 20 50 LEE 78 95 79 95 / 20 30 20 60 SFB 78 95 79 95 / 30 40 20 60 ORL 79 96 80 95 / 30 20 20 60 FPR 76 95 77 94 / 0 10 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.