textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Heat Advisory issued for all of east central Florida from 11am-8pm today for heat index values up to 108F-110F degrees; Remember to practice heat safety!

- Hot and humid conditions will continue for at least the next several days. Maximum heat index values will reach near or at Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through at least Friday

- Near to below normal rain chances this week. Drier air aloft mostly due to a Saharan Dust Layer will support strong gusty winds in lightning storms each day

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather across east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the mid 70s to around 80F degrees. Analysis charts show high pressure (~1022mb) over the eastern Gulf. Additionally, there's a 500mb high over eastern Gulf and state of Florida with 500mb heights at 595dm (90th percentile), as well as a mid/upper level trough over the western Atlantic.

Drier air in the mid to upper levels are expected to keep rain chances below normal today mostly due to a Saharan Dust Layer. Isolated to widely scattered showers (20-30% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous showers/lightning storm. Rain chances diminish by around 8PM. Hi-res guidance shows MLCAPE up to 2,000-4,200 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 10- 30kts, PWATs up to 1.80-2.30", and conditionally unstable mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, the potential exists for an isolated strong lightning storm or two capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 30-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all of east central Florida from 11AM to 8PM for heat index values up to 108-110F degrees. Remember to take frequent breaks from the heat, drink plenty of fluids, wear light colored clothing, and shift outdoor work away from the hottest parts of the day between the hours of 11am to 4pm. Near to above normal lows in low 70s to near 80F degrees are forecast overnight.

Wednesday-Friday... Expect a similar forecast on Wednesday and Thursday with drier air in the mid to upper levels which will keep rain chances below normal. The aforementioned 500mb ridge is expected to shift west as the mid/upper level trough over the western Atlantic deepens on Wednesday into Thursday before the ridge builds over Deep South, as well as the state of Florida late week. 500mb heights are forecast to increase from 594dm (90th percentile) on Wednesday to 597dm (maximum percentile for this time of year) by Friday over the Deep South. This will result in a slight increase in winds from the west at 5-10mph on Wednesday and Thursday before winds turn onshore with the east coast sea breeze over the coastal counties into the afternoon and evening each day. Isolated to scattered showers (20-30% chance on Wednesday and 20-40% chance Thursday/Friday) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous showers/lightning storms. Guidance indicates high instability, weak to moderate bulk shear, PWATs up to 1.80- 2.3", as well as conditionally to absolutely unstable mid level lapse rates. Thus, the potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of producing frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 30-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast each day with near Heat Advisory criteria maximum heat index values up to 105F-110F degrees forecast. Lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Saturday-Monday... The heat wave is expected to continue through the forecast period as a longwave ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. Ensembles are in good agreement that 500mb heights will reach 597dm over the southeastern US before weakening (594dm) and gradually shifting slightly west-southwest on Monday. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to build over the eastern Gulf and Deep South. Light and variable winds are forecast to increase into the afternoon and evening on Saturday and Sunday at 5-10mph with the east coast sea breeze mainly along and south of I-4. Mostly dry to below normal rain chances are forecast over the weekend through Monday. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to upper 70s. At least a Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast each day with a 20-40% chance of an Extreme HeatRisk for Lake county. A Major and Extreme HeatRisk affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected. Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast to the north of Melbourne into the afternoon. West-southwest winds at 5-10kts are expected to turn east- southeast into the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Seas to 1-2ft are expected.

Wednesday-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue. Isolated to widely scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast over the local Atlantic waters on Wednesday. Mostly dry to below normal rain chances are forecast Thursday to Saturday. An isolated generally offshore moving strong storm cannot be ruled out on Wednesday. West- southwest winds at 5-15kts are forecast to turn southeast in the afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze on Wednesday. West winds at 6-12kts are forecast to turn south- southeast each afternoon from Thursday to Saturday. Seas to 1-2ft are forecast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 124 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light and variable winds tonight will increase to 5-10 KT and become SW after 14Z across the interior sites, and ESE along the coast after 16Z. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible along the east coast sea breeze and as it pushes inland. Thus, have maintained VCSH starting at 16Z along the coast, and starting at 19Z across the interior. Confidence remains too low at this time to include VCTS. Light and variable winds and dry conditions return along coastal sites after 20Z and, across the interior sites after 00Z Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 94 76 94 76 / 30 10 30 10 MCO 95 77 95 76 / 30 10 20 10 MLB 91 77 93 77 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 93 75 94 75 / 20 10 30 10 LEE 95 77 94 77 / 30 10 20 0 SFB 95 77 96 77 / 30 10 30 10 ORL 95 78 95 77 / 30 10 30 10 FPR 92 77 94 76 / 20 10 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.