textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 105 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A high risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Nice weather is deceiving, please remain out of the surf today.

- While most places will remain dry, there is a 30-50% chance for showers and isolated storms along the Treasure Coast today. There is also a very low risk for heavy downpours, particularly on the coast south of St Lucie Inlet.

- Steadily warmer each day through the weekend, with highs approaching records by Sunday. Temperatures dip below normal behind a cold front next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida rests beneath a large axis of high pressure, extending from offshore of Nova Scotia to the eastern Gulf. This is delivering modified mT air to the peninsula on northeasterly (onshore) winds. A broad mid-level ridge sprawls from east of Bermuda to the NW Caribbean Sea, with a weakening shortwave tucked in the mean southwesterly flow aloft. This feature is on track to pass north of Central Florida over the next 24 hours, interacting with above- normal moisture over the southern half of the state and Bahamas.

The ensemble suite is coming into better agreement on the evolution of an anomalous and active setup across CONUS as we finish out this week. Courtesy of a -AO/-NAO, the polar vortex is displaced on our side of the hemisphere, sitting south of Hudson Bay this morning. Multiple jet streaks are riding southward in the meridional flow from the high-latitude Arctic to the Northern Rockies. Over the next few days, a preponderance of guidance phases the northern stream with ejecting subtropical energy from offshore of California.

A sharpening baroclinic zone forms across the Deep South this weekend, evidenced by the nearly 70-degree temperature delta forecast between South Florida and St Louis, MO on Sunday afternoon. In this regime, surface cyclogenesis will readily occur. This is the feature likely to cause a well-advertised, significant, and multi-faceted winter storm over the Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

In response to this, and immediately to its south, near to above- normal H5 heights are expected to build over Florida as the near- surface ridge weakens and pushes slowly southward. As winds turn more out of the south, warm advection will amplify, pumping above- normal temperatures over the state this weekend. As the phased 180+kt jet streak moves east of our longitude, it should force a cold front through the Florida Peninsula on Monday. The setup currently appears unfavorable for heavy rainfall. Cold advection settles over the area behind its passage.

Behind the front comes a steady decline in forecast confidence. The -AO pattern doesn't appear to relent, keeping the polar vortex displaced over Canada. Additional perturbations are expected to drop out of the Arctic and into the Northern U.S. Their timing and trajectories will determine the extent of cold weather impacts locally. A stepwise decrease in temperatures is favored, with additional cold fronts potentially reaching Florida by the middle of next week and/or the following weekend. If a major cold-air outbreak were to occur over the peninsula, the cold fronts later next week or weekend pose the greatest concern.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Much of the district should remain rain-free on this Thursday. We are watching the interaction of a weak disturbance and increased moisture over the Treasure Coast for shower development. Slow-moving showers have a low (< 10%) chance of dropping up to around 1" of rain today along the coast south of Fort Pierce. Expected amounts are lighter (0.05-0.25"), with overall rain chances ranging from 20-30% south of Cape Canaveral to as high as 50% along the Martin Co coast. Lightning potential is 20% or less on the Treasure Coast through today. A few of these showers may linger into tonight at the immediate coast (20%).

Temperatures rise back to slightly above normal today, ranging through the 70s. Overnight lows remain warmest at the coast, but above normal all areas.

Friday - Weekend...

The Sunshine State is expected to stay on the southern side of a very active winter storm track from Texas to the Carolinas and points northward. With the sharpening front and eventual area of low pressure forming to our northwest, winds slowly turn from easterly to southerly between Friday and Sunday. This will carry progressively warmer air to our area through the weekend.

Upper 70s to low 80s are forecast on Friday and Saturday before we jump into the mid (even upper) 80s on Sunday. Sunday's forecast high temperatures are already within a degree of tying the daily record at multiple sites, including Orlando.

By and large, quite a bit of dry time is forecast. We will hang onto a small shower chance along the Treasure Coast on Friday and Saturday, where moisture is somewhat greater.

Next Week...

What goes up must come down, especially given the pattern that is setting up over N America. A cold front should be on our doorstep Monday morning, sliding southward through the day. As it does, temperatures will vary widely from north to south, potentially even falling through the afternoon over portions of Central Florida. Timing is still a bit in question, with statistical guidance still showing sizable spread. The interquartile range for high temps is 10 degrees or greater (mid 60s to mid 70s) across the I-4 corridor. The chance for wetting rain remains low as the front passes, with mainly dry conditions forecast thereafter.

Cooler air rushes in here on Monday night, leading to a 30-60% chance of temps dropping to 40 deg F or less over the interior on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. A second front is currently favored to reach Florida by late Wednesday or Thursday, with a potentially stronger signal (disturbance or front) in the ensemble means next weekend.

As mentioned in the overview, the overall pattern over N America from the waning days of January and into early February has some ingredients that resemble those from past cold air outbreaks and freezes. This does not mean that everything will line up "perfectly" for an impactful blast of Arctic cold. This does tell us that we should monitor guidance trends very closely over the next 10-14 days.

MARINE

Issued at 105 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

A sprawling high pressure axis from the Florida Panhandle to the northwest Atlantic will keep moderate onshore breezes over the local waters over the next couple days. This will cause occasionally poor boating conditions, especially over the Gulf Stream. Expect scattered showers and isolated storms through at least Friday. The high weakens this weekend as it shifts southward. On Sunday, low pressure gathers north of Florida, turning winds out of the south. Its cold front should pass over the waters on Monday, with a surge of fresh to strong northwest winds building seas again early next week.

NE winds 5-12 kt through Friday, becoming east on Saturday then south up to around 10-17 kt on Sunday. Seas 4-6 ft today, subsiding to 3-5 ft Friday and Saturday. Seas build on Sunday, 4-5 ft nearshore and up to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

A boundary just offshore from the Treasure Coast is forecast to maintain -SHRA through at least the morning hours today, with VCSH then persisting into the afternoon. Brief MVFR reductions will be possible in any heavier showers, though coverage is expected to be too low to include in a TEMPO. Otherwise, dry, VFR conditions prevailing. ENE winds today increasing to 8-12 kts after 15Z. Then, winds slacken this evening and back NNE.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 58 77 59 / 10 0 10 0 MCO 77 58 81 61 / 10 0 10 0 MLB 74 61 77 61 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 76 62 79 62 / 30 10 20 10 LEE 77 55 80 58 / 10 0 10 0 SFB 77 57 81 59 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 77 58 81 61 / 10 0 10 0 FPR 77 61 80 61 / 30 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.