textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- A high risk of rip currents exists at Volusia and northern Brevard County beaches today, with a moderate risk farther south. Entering the surf north of Cape Canaveral is strongly discouraged.

- Showers and lightning storms return today from north to south, continuing tonight into Wednesday. A strong storm or two and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

- Drier late week before another cold front arrives Saturday, bringing more showers, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A weakening front moving southward through Central Florida brings higher moisture and a focus for development of showers and lightning storms, though a couple competing factors are decreasing confidence where/when the highest chances will be. While PWATs near the frontal boundary are up to around 1.5", mostly cloudy to overcast low-level stratus near the boundary are undercutting daytime heating and destabilization. Showers and lightning storms have developed across the northern Atlantic waters on convergence lines over the Gulf Stream, but closer to shore deep convection has so far struggled early this afternoon. Best chances for showers and lightning storms over land (30-50%) will be along the inland moving east coast sea breeze south of the stratus, as the frontal boundary and subsequent storm boundaries trigger development, starting near the Volusia/Brevard coasts, and working southwestward towards the Orlando Metro. Farther south, plenty of mostly clear skies for heating, but PWATs drop to 1.1" or less, and rain chances decrease to 20% or less from Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee south. Going into tonight, the front and associated higher moisture effectively stall across Central Florida as southward progression slows. Winds behind the front become quickly become northeasterly to easterly, which could push showers and lightning storms from the Atlantic waters onshore. Confidence where and if this happens remains low, and this is reflected by broad 30-50% PoPs across Volusia and Brevard, into adjacent portions of the inland counties.

The environment is conditionally favorable for storms that mange to develop to become strong, producing cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and small hail, mainly in the afternoon. Most places will receive rainfall amounts of 0.25" or less, but lucky spots could get locally higher amounts of 1-2". Models also continue to show potential for weak organization of deep convection tonight over the Atlantic waters along the residual frontal boundary, but still disagree where and if it will happen. Should a band of heavy rainfall develop and move towards the coast, there is very low potential (10% or less chance) for rainfall amounts over 4" along the coastal corridor.

A High Risk of rip currents continues at the beaches from the Cape north, including the Volusia/Daytona Beach coast, and entering the water is highly discouraged. There is a moderate risk of rip currents to the south, and residents and visitors should check in with life guards before entering the water. Never swim alone. Afternoon highs in the U70s-M80s near to above normal. Overnight lows in the 60 above normal.

Wednesday-Thursday...What's left of the frontal boundary washes out as it oozes from Central to South Florida. The higher moisture associated with front will have overspread much of East Central Florida, supporting continued isolated to scattered showers and storms (chances 30-50%) Wednesday. Once again most locations will get less than 0.25" of rain, but a lucky few might see 1-2" in a heavier shower or storm. Overcast skies knock temperatures back a couple degrees to the M70-L80s, and also limit potential for lightning storms. Rain chances decrease Thursday as the front dissipates, but a low (20%) chance will linger across portions of the area. Highs warm back to the U70s-L80s as high pressure builds and light onshore flow persists.

Friday-Monday (Previous Discussion)...Mid-level ridging expands eastward from the desert southwest and Gulf Coast late in the week with surface ridging briefly settling over Florida. Dry conditions are forecast Friday as temperatures climb into the 80s areawide. Ridging weakens Saturday as another cold front, slightly stronger this time, approaches central Florida. This frontal passage marks our next chance for rain (perhaps an isolated storm) with the higher chances focused closer to the coast and moreso across southern locations by Sunday. As the front pushes south Saturday into Sunday, northeast winds become breezy to gusty. Sunday appears particularly gusty (30+ mph at times). Overall, rain chances decrease into early next week, though some solutions maintain enough moisture within the onshore flow that coastal showers are still possible. Saturday is warm ahead of the front and then temperatures slide back into the 70s Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Boating conditions quickly deteriorate from north to south today as northeasterly to easterly winds increase to 15-25 kts (highest north of the Cape) behind a weakening front slowly pushing through Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters, causing seas to rapidly build up to 12 feet in the Gulf Stream and 5-8 ft closer to shore. Scattered lightning storms are also occurring near the frontal boundary, some of which could become strong and produce wind gusts over 35 kts, locally higher seas, frequent cloud to water lightning, and small hail.

Wednesday-Saturday...Boating conditions gradually improve but remain poor to hazardous Wednesday for lingering seas as the front stalls/washes out. Easterly winds 10-20 kts in the morning, highest to the north, diminish to 5-15 kts in the afternoon. Seas 6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream and 5-7 ft closer to shore in the morning settle to 4-6 ft in the early overnight. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue. Generally favorable boating conditions by Thursday, but some chop could persist especially in the Gulf Stream. Some isolated showers/storms possible Thursday, then dry conditions Friday. Boating conditions deteriorate again Saturday as another, stronger cold front arrives.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Scattered showers and storms ongoing, especially across MLB. Have TEMPO through 07Z for 3SM TSRA BKN010 as well as gusts up to 20KT. A weak frontal boundary has settled into the central FL peninsula and will become quasi-stationary overnight, around the MLB area. Highest moisture will lie in close proximity to it overnight. Overall, convection will decrease overnight, with the greatest potential for convection occurring along the boundary. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible, with the greatest potential looking to be MLB. Have maintained VC wording (VCSH from TIX-ISM northward, and VCTS for MLB) for everywhere except VRB southward. As of now, the only TEMPO is at MLB for tonight, will rely on amendments as necessary. Generally N/NE winds, but could be more light/variable across the Treasure Coast south/westward. MVFR/IFR CIGS possible across portions of ECFL tonight, with the lowest ceiling likely near to NW of MLB tonight. Patchy fog development is possible late tonight into early Wed morning, with greatest chances south of a KISM/KMLB line. Moisture will linger on Wednesday as the front continues to weaken. This will lead to additional scattered showers and lightning storms through the day, tapering off through sunset. Have included VCSH for MLB to ISM northward through the day, ending convection around 00/03. Winds will become NE/E at 10-15 KT with (some higher gusts) and considerable to mostly cloudy skies with a mix of VFR/MVFR CIGs. Winds then decrease to around 5KT around 00/03Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 63 80 61 / 50 20 20 0 MCO 80 65 82 64 / 40 10 20 0 MLB 78 64 80 64 / 50 20 20 0 VRB 80 63 80 63 / 40 20 20 0 LEE 80 63 84 63 / 30 10 20 0 SFB 79 64 83 63 / 40 10 20 0 ORL 80 64 83 64 / 40 10 20 0 FPR 81 62 81 62 / 30 20 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550- 552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ575.