textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Remaining mostly dry over the next several days with a warming trend under deep layer high pressure

- Near record highs in the lower 90s late this week and into the weekend over the interior. - Next cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night into early Monday and bring a small chance for showers early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thru tonight...Scattered marine stratocu has spit out some sprinkles/light showers along portions of the coast today and this should diminish tonight. Noticeably less cirrus today and the diurnal cu field will diminish after sunset esp over the interior with skies becoming mostly clear there. With lighter winds, there is a little better chance for patchy fog across northern sections (Orlando north and west) toward sunrise as indicated by the HRRR on several consecutive runs. Though NBM probs remain low at less than 20%.

Wed-Sun...Low level ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week and south FL by Sunday. Winds will gradually weaken and veer in response to this ridge axis. Meanwhile, ridge axis aloft will remain across the area, resulting in a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast Wednesday and Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb into late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the low to mid 80s at the coast and climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values. The greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still looks to be at Leesburg, especially Saturday (see record highs below).

Mon-Tue...A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area Sunday night into early Monday. This will finally lead to a cooling trend early next week with slightly below normal max temps on Tue. There will be some increase in rain chances, however moisture looks meager and the 12Z GFS is trending toward the drier ECWMF. So PoPs remain on the low end (around 20-30%), focused on central/southern sections Mon. Both models show a period of breezy to windy northeast to east winds developing behind the front that will continue into Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Boating conditions will continue to become more favorable the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the waters through Wed and then settles southward across central Florida late this week, then south of the local waters Sun. This will produce a gradual veering wind flow becoming more SE and S and then finally SW-W on Sunday. Each afternoon though there will be 10-14 knots E/SE sea breeze near the coast. Primary contribution to seas will be an east swell with a bit of wind wave. Combined seas will fall below 5 FT Wed and range 2-3 FT Fri-Sun.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 701 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions thru the TAF period. Will have to monitor for patchy fog development late tonight into early Wed, esp near/north of I-4 and may need some TEMPOs here eventually. Otherwise, mostly dry, but may see a sprinkle along the Space and Treasure coasts. ESE winds becoming light this evening and overnight with ERLY winds again on Wed increasing to 7-13 kts with some higher gusts - esp near the coast, with sea breeze development and inland movement.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Prevailing onshore winds will continue through Thursday as ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains just north of the area. Easterly winds will increase 10 to 15 mph each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Gusts up to 20 mph will be possible along the coast. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through late week, with a gradual warming trend. Onshore flow will keep Min RH values above critical levels in the mid 40s to mid 50s at the coast. However, well inland, roughly Kissimmee northward, min RH values will fall as low as 30-35 percent Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across this area where lower RH values occur so Red Flag conditions are not forecast. Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good Wednesday and generally Good Thursday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 65 79 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 63 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 62 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 62 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.