textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

- A strong cold front moves through the area tonight, bringing increasing chances for showers

- Below normal temperatures from Thursday onward with sub- freezing temperatures and wind chills Friday morning; a Freeze Watch remains in effect for much of the area - Brief warmup on Saturday is ended by another cold front Sunday, producing cold mornings and cool afternoon temperatures through early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A line of showers has developed across north Florida this afternoon, ahead of our approaching cold front. Have added in a slight chance (~20%) for a few of these quick- moving showers to impact areas along and north of I-4 this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the daytime hours.

Tonight, a strong cold front is forecast to begin to push southward through the Florida peninsula, before moving into south Florida Thursday morning. Shower chances increase along and ahead of the front, with scattered showers increasing PoPs to around 60%. Limited instability is expected to preclude any storms, so have kept the probability of thunder low (below 15%). Light southwesterly winds to begin the evening will veer northwesterly behind the front and increase. Winds closer to 10 mph near sunrise will likely be a bit more elevated than normal for the time of day. Temperatures will remain well above any cold thresholds tonight, with morning lows in the 50s for most areas. Far northern portions of the forecast area, where the front will pass through first, are expected to dip into the upper 40s.

Thursday-Friday...The aforementioned front is forecast to bisect the local area by sunrise. Scattered showers will remain possible through most of the morning, before MUCH drier air (PWATs 0.2" or less) advects into the area from north to south by the afternoon. High pressure building eastward across the northern Gulf Coast will lead to a tight pressure gradient Thursday. Northwesterly winds are forecast around 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25-30 mph. Daytime temperatures will begin a downward trend, struggling to rise out of the 50s along and north of I-4, with 60s to the south.

All eyes then turn to Thursday night, when clear skies and dew points in the upper teens to mid-20s allow overnight lows to plunge into the upper 20s to lower 30s for most areas. The earlier Freeze Watch remains unchanged due to the time frame. However, would expect most, if not all, of the current Watch to be upgraded to a Warning, depending on model guidance during tonight's forecast update. In fact, even the far northwestern corner of Martin County currently has a 30% chance for peak low temperatures of 32 degrees or less. However, confidence on the duration of near-freezing temperatures prevented adding that area to the Watch. Regardless, it will be cold area-wide, made to feel even colder by north-northwesterly winds. While not as breezy as Thursday afternoon, wind chills in the mid to upper 20s are forecast. A Cold Weather Advisory is expected, though again have not issued this advisory quite yet given the time frame. Residents and visitors should develop a plan now to protect plants, pipes, and people and pets without adequate shelter.

After a cold start, will see a limited warm up into Friday afternoon. High pressure drifting over the Florida peninsula will at least lead to light winds, though daytime highs will still remain well below normal. Forecast high temperatures are in the upper 50s to mid-60s once again, under clear skies. While light, the placement of the high should generate enough onshore flow to rebound dew points for at least coastal areas, helping to moderate overnight lows into Friday night. While temperatures are expected to remain chilly in the upper 30s to mid-40s, temperatures and wind chills look to remain above criteria at this time. Will need to watch the threat for some patchy frost in rural Lake and Volusia Counties, though temperatures even there are a bit borderline.

Saturday-Wednesday (modified previous)...Broad mid level troughing, centered over the Upper Midwest Saturday morning, will begin to deepen and rotate eastward on Sunday. On Saturday, temperatures recover into the 60s and low 70s, if only for one day. Another cold front is forecast to approach on Sunday and move through the area by Sunday night. While moisture looks limited for this frontal passage, have introduced a slight (20%) chance for a few showers near and north of Orlando Sunday afternoon. Prepare for another cooldown to start next week, with lows Monday morning again approaching the freezing mark in a number of locations (rural interior and north of I-4), along with wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. High pressure builds overhead by Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing temps to climb back into the 60s and low 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Poor boating conditions offshore this afternoon become hazardous area-wide tonight into Thursday, as a cold front pushes through the local waters. Westerly winds 15-20 kts will increase to 20-25 kts out of the northwest Thursday afternoon. This will cause seas to build to up to 7-9 ft in the Gulf Stream by Thursday night. Small Craft Advisories will go into effect late tonight. Scattered showers will be possible along and ahead of the front.

Conditions will improve into the early portion of the weekend, though seas will be slow to subside in the Gulf Stream and remain poor to hazardous into Friday. However, high pressure and light winds look to return seas to 2-3 ft by Saturday afternoon. Then, yet another cold front Sunday is forecast to once again bring poor to hazardous boating conditions into early next week. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Showers forecast across the terminals early this morning as a cold front moves southward across the area. TEMPOs in place for VIS and CIG reductions due to -SHRA, with activity anticipated to diminish by 17Z at all terminals. Breezy and gusty NW winds forecast behind the front, with gusts to 27 knots possible at times. Winds diminish to around 10 knots late tonight, with dry conditions forecast to persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Periods of sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast through the next week or so, as a series of cold fronts move through the area. It begins Thursday afternoon, when much drier air rapidly advects southward into east central Florida behind the first front. A tightened pressure gradient and northwesterly winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 25-30 mph, will create a small window where min RH falls to 35-40% near and north of I-4, while winds remain elevated. Also, breezy transport winds producing very good to excellent dispersion could cause some containment issues.

Lighter winds then return through Saturday, but min RH looks to remain as low as 25-35% over the interior Friday afternoon. A brief reprieve Saturday will be short-lived, before yet another cold front Sunday brings more dry air and sensitive conditions into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 59 31 59 41 / 40 0 0 0 MCO 60 34 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 MLB 64 34 62 47 / 70 0 0 0 VRB 66 34 64 46 / 70 0 0 0 LEE 57 30 59 39 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 59 32 61 41 / 40 0 0 0 ORL 59 34 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 FPR 66 33 64 46 / 70 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-247-254-259-547.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ347- 647.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ555.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ572-575.