textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

- Turning drier today and into late week before shower and storm chances return and gradually rise through the weekend.

- Highs will continue to reach the mid to upper 80s across much of the area over the next several days, with low 90s forecast well inland by this weekend.

- A High Risk of rip currents continues at all area beaches today. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Today-Friday... A surface front will shift southward into north Florida by this afternoon and then push through the local area tonight, reaching South Florida by sunrise. Locally, drier air will filter across central Florida starting today, with forecast PW values dropping to 1.0-1.3" today, and 0.8-1.2" on Friday. This will lead to mostly dry conditions both days, but Friday may see a low (20-30 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms develop into the afternoon around the Lake Okeechobee region. N/NW winds at 5-10 mph today will turn onshore along the coast in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. High pressure then builds across the southeast US on Friday, turning the local winds onshore. Wind speeds will enhance in the afternoon to 10-15 mph behind the inland-moving sea breeze on Friday. Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast both days, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s forecast across the far interior on Friday. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler tonight, with lows generally in the 60s, before onshore flow on Friday increases the overnight lows to the upper 60s to mid 70s.

At the beaches, there is a High risk of rip currents at all area beaches today. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Saturday-Wednesdeay... High pressure just off the coast of the Carolinas will slowly shift north and east, with its axis remaining over the Florida peninsula through the weekend and into early next week. Locally, this will maintain onshore flow through the period, with winds becoming enhanced to 10-15 mph in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. A gradual increase in moisture is forecast this weekend and into early next week within the onshore flow. This will raise rain chances slightly, with a low to medium (20-50 percent) chance of rain, focused along the coast early in the day and translating inland with the afternoon sea breeze. Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures through the period, with afternoon highs generally in the 80s, with low 90s well inland will be possible each day.

MARINE

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Today-Monday... The surface front south of the local waters will help winds become N/NW today with speeds generally below 15 KT. Seas will be 3-5ft today. High pressure will then move into the Southeast U.S. by late week before shifting offshore into the weekend. Winds will become onshore (E/SE) at 10-15 KT, and may briefly increase to 15-20 KT at times offshore mainly during the late afternoon/evening hours each day. Seas will continue to range from 2-4 feet through the period.

Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast today, mainly in the offshore waters from Cape Canaveral southward. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast for Friday, with daily isolated to scattered showers and lightning returning this weekend and continuing into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Very low (20% or less) chances of ISO SHRA INVOF the southern terminals in the evening, otherwise VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminal through the TAF period. The east coast sea breeze has formed, shifting NW-N winds onshore at 7-12 kts behind the boundary as it moves inland, reaching KMCO and other Orlando area terminals after 22Z, with a dry collision INVOF the inland terminals after 00Z. Winds become light/VRB overnight into Friday morning, shifting onshore 8-13 kts behind the sea breeze in the afternoon/evening. Slightly higher chances of afternoon SHRA/TSRA Friday, mainly inland/south of the ECFL TAF terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Fire sensitive conditions are forecast Friday as Min RH values fall to as low as the mid to upper 30s across Lake County, and 35-45 percent across the rest of the interior in the afternoon. Winds will turn E/SE on Friday, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon with the inland-moving east coast sea breeze. Isolated to scatted showers and lightning storms are forecast Friday afternoon around the Lake Okeechobee region. Lightning strikes pose a risk for new fire starts. Min RH values recover to 45-50 percent across the interior on Saturday as moisture increases over the area in the onshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 67 86 71 86 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 68 89 71 88 / 0 10 0 20 MLB 72 86 76 85 / 10 10 10 20 VRB 72 86 75 86 / 10 10 20 20 LEE 66 89 71 90 / 0 0 0 20 SFB 66 90 70 89 / 0 10 0 10 ORL 68 90 71 89 / 0 10 10 20 FPR 71 86 74 85 / 10 10 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.