textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 246 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers, as well as lightning storms will persist through the workweek. There is the potential for a few strong storms each day, which will have the capability of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 40-50 mph, and heavy rainfall with slow-moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices generally between 100-107 with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk and an Extreme HeatRisk for a small portion of east central Florida. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Today-Wednesday... KMLB radar imagery shows dry conditions over east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with dew points generally in the mid 70s. Analysis charts show the western Atlantic ridge extended over southern Florida. Dry conditions are expected to continue this morning before scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are expected to develop into the afternoon. Coverage of showers and lightning storms are forecast to increase as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with west-southwest flow, as well as outflow from previous storms. A weak east coast sea breeze will keep the highest rain shower (40-70%) and lightning storms chances along the coast (much like yesterday). The potential exists for isolated strong storms to develop which will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, heavy rainfall (1- 2" with a 2-5% chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 3"), and wind gusts up to 40-50mph.

Drier conditions are expected on Wednesday with the east coast sea breeze pinned near the coast, however, the sea breeze will move further inland from northern Brevard county northward where the probability of precipitation will be highest (30-50%). Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast into the afternoon and evening. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk exists each afternoon with afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s and maximum heat index values up 102-107F. Above normal (2-5F+) to near record low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are forecast. There is an Extreme HeatRisk for portions of Brevard county on Tuesday, as well as portions of Brevard, SW Orange, and NW Osceola counties. A Major and Extreme HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration! Remember to stay hydrated, wear light colored clothing, shift outdoor work away from 10am to 4pm, and take frequent breaks from the heat.

Thursday-Friday... Rain shower and lightning storm chances increase to end the workweek on Thursday and Friday. Guidance shows PWATs as high as 1.7-2.7" over east central Florida as a shortwave trough deepens over the southeastern US and the east coast sea breeze strengthens slightly and increases surface convergence with the west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. The shortwave trough is forecast to then track to the north of Florida and over the southwestern Atlantic which will result in upper level perturbations pivoting along the base of the trough over northern east central Florida Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered showers (40-70% THU and 30-50% FRI) and lightning storms are forecast to develop each afternoon. The potential exists for isolated strong storms each day which will be capable of frequent lightning, heavy rainfall (1-2" with a 2-5% chance in excess of 2" up to 3-4"). The greatest potential for strong storms exists on on Friday with increased upper level support. Afternoon highs in the mid 90s with maximum heat index values as high as 102-107F. Above normal (2-5F+) to record low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are forecast. A widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk is expected. An Extreme HeatRisk is forecast for portions of Brevard, SW Orange, NW Osceola, and southern Lake counties on Thursday.

Saturday-Monday... The western Atlantic ridge is forecast to weaken and shift southeast into the weekend as a major shortwave trough deepens over the eastern US and the western Atlantic. Guidance indicates that rain shower and lightning storm chances will increase over the weekend with PWATs as high as 2.0"-2.4". The potential exists for strong storms with a frontal boundary over northern Florida, however, the forecast for east central Florida will largely be dependent on the position of the frontal boundary as it sags southward over the southern US and northern Florida. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast with lows in the low to upper 70s. There is a 30-70% chance of a Major HeatRisk each day.

MARINE

Issued at 246 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Today-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected with the western Atlantic ridge extended over southern Florida. Scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms (some of which will have the potential to become strong) are forecast today with isolated to scattered coverage, mainly north of Brevard county on Wednesday. West-southwest winds are forecast to back south-southeast into each afternoon at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Seas of 1-3ft are expected.

Thursday-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected. Drier conditions are forecast Thursday (20-60%) and Friday (20-40%) with isolated showers and lightning storms forecast. Rain chances increase slightly on Saturday. Southwest winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are expected to back south-southeast into each afternoon. Seas to 1-3ft are forecast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 107 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Quiet overnight as skies thin with continued mainly VFR outside of afternoon and evening convection on Tue. Light & variable winds become SW up to 10 kts on Tue, but will eventually "back" (onshore 10-12 kts) at the immediate coast with sea breeze formation and only minimal movement inland. Suspect ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection, generally aft 18Z with the ECSB but will also see this same coverage as early as 16-17Z in association with the quick-moving WCSB as it sweeps into the eastern peninsula. Boundary collisions will increase coverage across the eastern peninsula, esp near the coast, late afternoon-early evening with SCT to locally NMRS coverage. MVFR (local IFR) with storms. Activity will diminish and/or push off the coast thru mid evening as the SWRLY steering flow is stronger than previous days. "Vicinity" wording now but will entertain TEMPO groups as confidence in timing increases with highest late day/evening coverage confined to coastal terminals, again. It does appear that overall coverage will be less than on Mon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 76 94 77 / 60 20 40 0 MCO 95 76 96 77 / 40 20 30 10 MLB 94 77 94 79 / 60 30 30 10 VRB 95 75 95 78 / 50 30 20 10 LEE 93 77 95 78 / 40 20 20 0 SFB 95 77 96 78 / 50 20 40 10 ORL 95 77 95 78 / 40 20 30 10 FPR 94 75 95 77 / 40 30 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.