textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches today. Rough surf will exist due to persistent onshore winds. Please stay out of the ocean.

- The greatest chance for a few storms (40-50%) resides just west of Greater Orlando late this afternoon and evening. On Wednesday, chances increase to around 60-70% over the interior. A few of the storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to around 50 mph, particularly on Wednesday.

- For all of east central Florida, high coverage of showers and storms is expected each day from Thursday through the weekend. While beneficial to the ongoing drought, areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain will need to be monitored for flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Monday evening objective analysis showed a sprawling ridge at H5, with heights exceeding 588 dam along the Atlantic coast from Norfolk, VA to the Florida Keys. Its center remains well offshore, to the north of The Bahamas. Mid-level (H7 / 10 kft) moisture has decreased substantially over the Florida Peninsula, as was forecast. Through Wednesday, the associated surface high-pressure axis remains north of Central Florida, and mid-level moisture will only slowly increase beginning on Wednesday.

In the polar jet stream across N America, a pronounced omega block is slated to develop this week. As the digging trough on the eastern flank of the block drifts into the NW Atlantic beginning Thursday, ridging over Florida will collapse. This is expected to send the near-surface high-pressure axis south of the area by Friday. Additionally, a shortwave trough, currently over the Sonoran Desert, is forecast to slowly progress eastward and into the Gulf by week's end. Ahead of it, the 25/12Z ensembles transport deep Gulf moisture and embedded weak vorticity eastward toward the peninsula. Once it reaches the area beginning Thursday, this anomalous moisture remains in place at least through this weekend.

With PWAT values in excess of the 90th percentile, the encroaching shortwave trough, and weak to offshore boundary-layer flow, multiple rounds of unsettled weather should result beginning late this week and through the weekend. By around next Tuesday, a weak front associated with the trough over the Northeast U.S. may approach the state. Cluster analysis suggests that guidance is nearly evenly split on whether this late-season front will clear Central Florida or stall nearby. Climatology would lean toward a stalling front, which would prolong unsettled conditions well into next week.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Wednesday...

Little change to our persistent weather pattern is expected today. With some drier air aloft, very similar conditions to our Memorial Day are forecast. One subtle difference is that the hi-res models give a slightly better chance (50%) for late-day and evening showers and storms generally over Lake County, to the west of Greater Orlando. Aside from a few morning showers or a quick storm, the coast should be mainly dry today. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal, particularly at night along the coast. Breezy southeast winds continue, with a few gusts from 20-30 mph by afternoon.

Rough surf will exist at our beaches today, and a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues. Beach-goers should refrain from entering the surf.

A few more showers may develop along the coast tonight and early Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, slightly higher moisture works in from the Gulf. With the surface ridge axis still to our north, this should focus greater shower and storm chances from Lake George to Orlando to Sebring and points westward (50-70%), with 30-40% chances closer to I-95. Model proximity soundings reveal substantial DCAPE due to the lingering effects of dry air aloft, which may promote at least a low chance for wind gusts approaching 50 mph in the strongest storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thursday - Weekend...

Deeper moisture really surges in here beginning on Thursday. With the high-pressure axis on its way south and southwesterly flow aloft, numerous showers and storms should form and push toward the east coast by Thursday afternoon. These could also be somewhat strong with at least a low chance for wind gusts of around 50 mph. Frequent lightning will also remain a threat.

Light offshore flow becomes established beginning Friday, pinning any sea breeze near the coast. Increasing cloud cover will be a harbinger of the copious moisture in place over Central Florida. It will not take much daytime heating to spark additional rounds of showers and storms each day. While the rain will help drought conditions, the highly efficient rain rates may cause some ponding and/or flooding, especially for urban locales. Rainfall tallies of 1-2.5" should be relatively common through this period, with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 3".

High temperatures should range generally in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the low/mid 70s. Expect very muggy conditions.

Early Next Week...

As mentioned in the overview, there is a fair amount of disagreement regarding how long this unsettled weather pattern will stick around. Once we reach June, it becomes very difficult to get a clean cold frontal passage in Central Florida. We currently favor a solution that keeps the continental air bottled up to our north through at least Tuesday. With that in mind, high coverage of showers and storms should persist. Statistical guidance tends to agree with that assessment, with rain chances above 70% on both Monday and Tuesday. Locally excessive rainfall will remain a concern. Temperatures look to stay a bit below normal due to the amount of cloud cover that is forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

To the south of an axis of strong high pressure, fresh onshore flow continues over the local Atlantic. This is producing poor boating conditions, particularly behind the afternoon sea breeze. Little change is forecast through Wednesday. The surface ridge axis will then push southward on Thursday before reaching the Florida Straits on Friday. Winds should decrease as this occurs. Only isolated showers and storms are forecast through Wednesday. Then, showers and storms will become more numerous beginning Thursday. Some of the storms late this week will have the potential to push offshore, bringing sudden wind gusts and higher seas.

SE winds 12-18 kts through Wednesday, becoming S 10-15 kts on Thursday, then variable 5-10 kt on Friday. Higher winds and gusts near storms late in the week. Prevailing seas 3-5 ft through Wednesday, decreasing to 2-3 ft Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

ISOLD SHRA lifting north this morning and patchy MVFR CIGs will affect some coastal terminals hence the TEMPOs to start the 12Z package. Additional SHRA could develop farther inland after 14Z as a diffuse east coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Maintaining VCSH at MCO as CAM guidance shows bulk of convection should be (just) west. VCTS at LEE may eventually need a TEMPO roughly 22Z-01Z.

SE winds will quickly increase 15-20 kts with gusts 25-29 kts on the coast. Similar peak gusts at interior terminals (MCO/SFB) Tue aftn but not as frequent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 90 77 90 75 / 20 10 50 50 MCO 92 75 91 74 / 40 30 60 50 MLB 88 79 89 77 / 20 30 30 30 VRB 89 78 89 77 / 20 20 30 20 LEE 92 76 91 75 / 50 50 60 60 SFB 93 76 92 75 / 30 20 60 50 ORL 92 76 91 75 / 40 30 60 50 FPR 88 77 89 75 / 20 20 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.