textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Scattered to numerous storms are expected each afternoon and evening through the rest of the work week across Central Florida, with 50-70% coverage. Frequent lightning, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and localized urban flooding will be the primary hazards.

- Storms may begin to focus more over the interior from this weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing the Atlantic sea breeze farther inland.

- Seasonably hot and humid. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 100 to 105 each day. When planning to be outdoors, hydrate well and consider taking frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida remains beneath a weakness between a pair of mid-level anticyclones early this morning. Near-normal H5 heights reside over the state, but subtle vorticity perturbations continue to meander nearby. Total moisture values have returned to near normal over the peninsula. Little change is expected in the overall pattern through the remainder of the work week. The trough over the northeast Gulf is expected to very slowly retrograde and fill, allowing height rises across Florida. This will ensure continued south to southwesterly flow above H85 through at least Friday. At the surface, an axis of high pressure will attempt to move northward, holding close to our latitude through Friday as well.

Ensemble guidance remains in strong agreement into the extended forecast. The members bridge the mid-level highs over the Southern U.S. and Gulf by the weekend and into early next week, allowing surface high pressure to lift north of Florida. Near- to slightly above-normal moisture should remain in place, but steering flow for convection should turn onshore and deepen, lasting well into next week.

The National Hurricane Center gives a tropical wave in the Atlantic MDR (Main Development Region) a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next couple of days. While it is far too early to know whether this feature will affect the U.S., it's a reminder to be prepared as peak hurricane season is upon us.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Now - Tonight...

A handful of storms have lasted well into the night, with frequent lightning and brief gusty winds affecting parts of Brevard County. This activity should dissipate late in the overnight, leaving us with a quiet start to the day. Hi-res guidance then suggests that a few storms will attempt to form by mid-afternoon along the I-95 corridor as the sea breeze moves inland. Additional storms are likely to flare up along boundary collisions with the Gulf breeze over the interior by early evening. With ample moisture and weak energy aloft, there is little reason to doubt high overall coverage later today (50-60% coast, 60-70% interior).

As in recent days, the primary threats remain frequent lightning, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and torrential rainfall. HREF members show a 10% chance of rainfall amounts reaching 3 inches today, especially over the interior. If this occurs over urban areas, localized flooding may result.

Widespread low to mid 90s once again today, with max heat indices 100-105.

Thursday - Friday...

No major changes to the expected weather setup as we wrap the work week. Light surface winds will allow for a fairly robust sea breeze circulation, while moderate south-southwest flow persists above 5,000 ft. This portends daily rounds of showers and storms with fairly high coverage (50-70%) in the afternoon and evening. Storm threats will be similar to what is expected later today. With the light offshore steering flow, a few storms may push back toward the coast, especially on Thursday evening. Beach-goers should monitor the western sky and seek sturdy shelter if you hear thunder.

Expect seasonably hot and humid conditions before the storms form both days.

Weekend - Middle Of Next Week...

As high pressure builds and gains latitude, onshore flow will become established through the lowest 10,000 feet. Scattered storms should form each day on the advancing sea breeze, with an eventual collision with the Gulf breeze either near or west of Orlando and the Kissimmee Basin by evening. Beachside locations will have the best chance of staying dry, while some interior locales will likely see a storm each afternoon. Some modulation may occur from day to day due to moisture fluctuations in the onshore flow regime. Expect no substantial change to our seasonable heat and humidity as we round out August.

MARINE

Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

An axis of high pressure will slowly move northward, reaching the local Atlantic waters by Thursday and remaining nearly stationary through Friday. Light winds persist, becoming onshore and somewhat enhanced near the coast by the afternoon sea breeze. A few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong wind gusts remain possible through at least Thursday. By the weekend, the surface high lifts north of the area, with favorable boating conditions expected.

Light S/SW winds overnight turning SE in the afternoon, up to around 12 kt. Winds become E/SE this weekend. Seas 2 ft or less through Friday, then 2-3 ft this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Light S winds this morning will turn out of the SE behind the sea breeze at coastal terminals by 17Z. Deeper moisture will be present so expect a higher coverage of SHRA/TSRA. Have inserted TEMPO TS for most sites roughly 20Z-24Z but could spill over past 00Z over the interior terminals and show VCSH for that possibility. Potential exists for gusty winds 35-45 knots in the stronger storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 74 91 74 / 60 30 60 30 MCO 95 75 94 75 / 80 50 70 40 MLB 91 75 91 76 / 50 20 60 10 VRB 91 74 91 75 / 50 20 60 20 LEE 93 74 92 75 / 60 40 70 30 SFB 94 75 93 75 / 70 40 70 40 ORL 94 75 93 76 / 70 50 70 40 FPR 91 74 90 75 / 50 20 60 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.