textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Summer-like sea breeze pattern, with scattered afternoon showers and storms, will persist into next week. Main threats will be lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall from slow moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Always swim near a lifeguard!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Current-Tonight... Hot today with temperatures observed in the upper 80s and low 90s across much of east central Florida. Satellite and radar imagery have shown the development of the east and west coast sea breezes early this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and lighting storms beginning to bubble up on each side of the state. Light southwest flow will slightly favor the west coast breeze with a collision expected near Orlando again this afternoon and evening. Light flow throughout the low and mid levels and deep low level moisture will maintain a threat for localized flooding of urban or low lying areas with slow moving storms. In addition, a few taller storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and localized wind gusts of 35-45 mph in downbursts. Activity should gradually diminish after sunset with dry conditions then forecast overnight. Mild and muggy conditions continue overnight with lows mostly in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday-Friday... Little change to the local weather pattern is expected through the upcoming week as high pressure holds control at the surface and aloft. The surface ridge axis is forecast to remain south of the area into mid week before gradually drifting northward Thursday into Friday. Modeled PWATs between 1.9-2.2" will range above climatological normals through about Tuesday or Wednesday before trends suggest slight drying toward more seasonable moisture values (PWAT ~1.5-1.8"). Offshore flow will maintain the greatest focus of scattered sea breeze showers and storms across the eastern half of the peninsula, especially from Orlando eastward. A warm, moist air column will continue to promote a heavy rainfall threat each afternoon and evening, and localized flooding of urban or low lying areas remains possible in slow moving or stationary storms, particularly early in the week. A strong storm environment should be generally limited by warm temperatures aloft and weak shear profiles. However, surface instability and steep low level lapse rates will still allow for quick updrafts producing tall storms. These tall storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and isolated wet downburst gusts to near 50 mph.

A period of hot and humid conditions is expected to persist into the coming week. Highs near to above normal will range the low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s across the interior. Mild and muggy conditions will persist into the evening and overnight with low temperatures ranging the mid to upper 70s for many locations. A Moderate HeatRisk will continue to build through the coming week, and a Major HeatRisk from Brevard northward early this week should expand southward through the Treasure Coast Thursday and Friday. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

MARINE

Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A surface ridge axis will remain south of the local waters through mid next week, maintaining a period of prevailing offshore flow. Winds shift south to southeast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops, increasing 10-15 kts in the evenings as flow veers offshore again. Seas of 2-3 ft will persist. Mostly dry in the mornings and early afternoons with rounds of scattered offshore moving lightning storms forecast late in the afternoon and evenings.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 719 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Multiple storm boundaries about to converge INVOF KMCO, and need to extend TEMPOs for TS impacts there and nearby terminals through 02Z to cover collision, though recent trends suggest it may not produce much. Might have some -SHRA linger through 04Z. Quiet conditions tonight after TSRA/SHRA dissipate. Winds SE-SSE 5-10 kts become light/VRB late this evening. Offshore (WSW-SW) flow 5-10 kts is expected to slow development of the east coast sea breeze, possibly pinning it near the coast in some spots, favoring the afternoon-evening sea breeze collision and highest chances for TSRA closer to the coast than previous days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 92 76 92 / 30 40 40 60 MCO 77 93 76 92 / 50 50 30 50 MLB 77 91 77 93 / 20 60 50 60 VRB 75 91 75 93 / 10 60 50 70 LEE 77 93 77 92 / 30 20 10 40 SFB 77 94 77 94 / 50 50 40 60 ORL 78 93 77 92 / 50 50 30 50 FPR 75 90 75 92 / 10 60 40 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.