textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone!

- Rain chances gradually rise through the remainder of the work week, with high coverage of showers returning to portions of the area for the weekend. - Turning breezy to windy this weekend behind a passing front, with hazardous to dangerous boating and surf conditions developing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...High pressure over the northern Gulf Coast maintains northeasterly flow across the forecast area today. PWATs below 1.5" and strong subsidence in the mid-levels has, so far, prevented most shower development through early this afternoon. However, a scattered stratocu deck has developed across east central Florida and a shower or two has been observed on KMLB radar northeast of Cape Canaveral over the Atlantic waters. Expect similar conditions to persist into tonight. But, while subsidence aloft continues into Wednesday, the plume of moisture around 900mb that is currently generating our afternoon cloud deck will support a few showers over the Atlantic waters overnight. So, have maintained 15- 20% PoPs along the coast, especially after midnight, as a few of those showers drift onshore. NE winds around 10-12 mph this afternoon will become light after sunset, though may remain around 10 mph along the barrier islands. Temperatures look to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s west of I-95 late tonight, but onshore flow will keep coastal areas in the mid-70s.

Wednesday-Thursday...A trough digging through the Great Lakes mid- week will shift the ridge over the Southeast US offshore through Thursday. Winds become increasingly easterly as the high shifts, becoming 10-15 mph each afternoon. As the wind direction changes, additional moisture will advect into the area building PWATs to 1.7- 2" by Thursday afternoon. A low chance for showers (15-20%) returns to most of the area Wednesday, though the greatest chance will be along the coast, especially south of Melbourne. Rain chances then build Thursday, becoming 30-50% south of Orlando Thursday afternoon. Rounds of showers will remain possible along the coast overnight, especially along the Treasure Coast. Thunder chances remain low, though a few storms will be possible Thursday afternoon as subsidence aloft wanes CAPE increases. High temperatures climb into the upper 80s to near 90, with overnight lows in the lower to mid- 70s.

Friday-Monday (modified previous)...High pressure ridge and onshore flow weakens Friday, as a cold front sweeps through the southeast U.S. and eventually across the area into Saturday. Winds briefly become northerly as front moves through, but strong area of high pressure that builds in well north of the front will quickly turn winds onshore into the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient between the front and ridge to the north will lead to breezy to windy conditions developing behind this boundary as early as Saturday and likely persisting through early next week. Rain chances remain near to above normal through the period, with scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered storms each day. This activity will mostly be limited to the afternoon and early evening hours on Friday. However, into the weekend and through Monday, deep moisture combined with strong low level onshore flow will continue rounds of gusty showers and storms pushing onshore. Locally heavy to excessive rainfall could also be possible, mainly along the coast where any persistent bands of showers and storms can develop. Coastal areas have already been highlighted in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday.

The longer duration windy east-northeast flow into early next week will also lead to the development of dangerous surf and boating conditions, increasing the potential for beach erosion this weekend into early next week. Max temps will still reach the mid to upper 80s on Friday, but are forecast to trend slightly cooler behind the front, falling to the low to mid 80s most days Saturday through Tuesday, though upper 70s to low 80s are forecast on Sunday. Overnight lows will remain near to above normal as gusty onshore flow continues.

MARINE

Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Rest of Today-Friday...No significant boating concerns through the end of the work week, as high pressure moves eastward north of the local waters. However, will see an increase in showers and storms through the period, as moisture builds, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Scattered showers and storms are forecast area-wide by Friday. NE winds today veer E into Thursday, increasing to 10-15 kts each afternoon. Then, onshore flow becomes light ahead of a cold front on Friday. Seas generally 2-3ft, building up to 4 ft offshore south of the Cape shortly Wednesday afternoon and into the evening.

Saturday-Sunday...A cold front will pass through the local area into Saturday. As the pressure gradient tightens between the front and a strong ridge to the north, boating conditions will deteriorate rapidly this weekend. NNE/NE winds Saturday reach near gale force, with frequent gusts to gale force. Winds then become E Sunday into early next week, but remain hazardous to dangerous. Seas respond, building rapidly to 10-13 ft Saturday, where they will linger through Sunday. In addition, a wet pattern looks to persist behind the front, maintaining high coverage of showers and scattered storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR through the period. East-northeast winds around 7-10 kts this afternoon diminish to 5 kts or less into tonight. A few showers are limited to the Atlantic waters this afternoon with no current mention of precip within the 18Z TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 85 72 86 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 71 88 71 89 / 10 20 0 30 MLB 75 86 75 87 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 74 87 75 88 / 20 20 20 40 LEE 69 88 69 90 / 0 20 0 10 SFB 71 87 71 89 / 10 20 0 10 ORL 72 87 72 89 / 10 20 0 20 FPR 73 87 74 88 / 20 20 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.