textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

- Cold front will cross the area this afternoon and evening and bring windy conditions tonight along the coast where a Wind Advisory has been posted. Breezy/gusty north winds over the interior during the night.

- Boating conditions will rapidly deteriorate late today across the Volusia waters where a Gale Warning will go into effect. These strong north winds will then quickly overspread all the waters this evening. - Breaking waves of 7 to 9 feet will develop tonight and early Monday, briefly up to 10 ft along the Volusia coast. Rough, pounding surf with numerous rip currents and minor beach erosion especially around high tide early Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Today-Mon...Isolated to scattered showers across southern sections where deeper moisture resides as well as some upper support. The higher coverage will occur over the adjacent Atlc (south of the Cape) and this is where the best chance for lightning strikes will occur. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1043mb) over the central US this morning will build SE and sweep a cold front across the area this afternoon and this evening. The resulting tightening of the NW-N pressure gradient will produce windy conditions tonight along the coast. A Wind Advisory has been posted for the FL east coast for 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible. The strongest winds will occur along the immediate coast (barrier islands). Winds will remain unusually breezy/gusty (15-25mph) for nighttime over the interior.

These strong N/NE winds will produce rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion tonight into Mon. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT are forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. So a High Surf Advisory has been issued. Fortunately the duration of these winds/seas will be very short. The high tide of most concern will be early Mon between 4am-5am.

The high pressure steadily weakens Mon as it reaches the deep South and this will loosen the pressure gradient somewhat and allow winds to begin to decrease Mon aftn. But it will remain breezy/gusty esp along the coast with considerable cloudiness and a passing coastal shower cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures will be above normal today in the mid to upper 70s then noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday with max temps holding in the 60s.

Tue-Sat...The high pressure will push seaward Tue while continuing to weaken with a trailing axis across north Florida through mid week. This will result in veering wind flow becoming SE Wed-Thu with speeds 15 mph or less. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday and push through Fri night or Sat. Currently have a mostly dry forecast with this frontal passage but rain chances may need to be introduced late week.

Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend into late week. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night and Friday night.

MARINE

Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Favorable boating conditions will start out this Sunday morning with winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 FT. But conditions will deteriorate this afternoon and especially this evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds over the area behind a cold front. North winds increase 20-25 knots by sunset across the northern (Volusia) waters will overspread the remainder of our coastal waters this evening with rapidly building seas especially in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Warning has been posted for the Volusia Atlc waters for frequent gusts to gale force (34 knots) while solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist elsewhere with occasional gusts to gale force possible. Seas will build rapidly to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight into Monday with 7-10 FT nearshore.

The high pressure will weaken as it settles into the SE US Mon so wind speeds will drop below 20 knots Mon aftn but seas will be slower to subside given the NE wind component. The high will push seaward through mid week and winds will veer east then southeast in response and the pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots. It will take a little while for seas to subside below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream so have extended the SCA there slightly. But once we lose the north wind component, seas will subside below 6 FT Tue night and below 5 FT Wed. Seas nearshore will be 3 FT Wed-Thu as winds develop a SE component.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 640 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Conditions are no longer favorable for fog development and have pulled mention from the TAFs, but can't rule out a sunrise surpriseand will AMD if needed. SHRA and TSRA have largely pushed offshore of KVRB-KSUA, but some MVFR CIGs from the moisture supporting that convection has overspread those terminals and made it up to KTIX. High clouds are obscuring this deck on satellite imagery so not very confident how long impacts will last, so for now have TEMPOs to 14Z. Light/VRB winds this morning become NW 7-12 kts after 18Z, then turn northerly and further increase to 13-18 kts with gusts 20-30 kts after 23Z, possibly up to 35 kts at times along the coast as a sharp cold front pushes through Central Florida. Could see a prolonged period of MVFR CIGs through the the night and into Monday. Guidance is currently a tossup right on the line between VFR and MVFR. For this package going with an optimistic SCT020 and BKN035 based on GFS MOS/LAMP.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 50 61 49 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 78 52 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 78 56 67 55 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 79 58 69 55 / 30 10 10 10 LEE 77 45 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 79 50 64 47 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 77 50 64 48 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 80 58 69 54 / 30 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572.