textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 838 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- NEW: Wind ADVISORY from late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Peak wind gusts from 35-45 mph are expected as a sharp cold front passes through east central Florida. There is a low (10%) chance of wind gusts to around 50 mph. Residents should ensure lightweight outdoor items are properly secured.

- Temperatures crash into the upper 40s to the 50s behind the cold front on Sunday afternoon, especially along I-4. A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of east central Florida late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Cold Weather Advisories will likely be needed as well on Sunday night.

- High pressure returns to the area behind the front and temperatures warm through mid-week. Scattered showers return on Thursday.

UPDATE

(Sunday Impacts) Issued at 838 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Bottom line up front: those with outdoor plans on Sunday will experience a variety of weather. Loose objects will need to be properly secured as unusually gusty winds are forecast.

After a quick analysis of the evening guidance suite, wanted to update our forecast and enhance messaging for weather impacts on Sunday. A cold front is sharpening across the Deep South this evening, moving slowly as it awaits a powerful PV anomaly across the Red River Valley (TX/OK). This shortwave is forecast to become neutral or negatively-tilted by dawn across the lower Mississippi Valley as it rounds the base of a deep longwave trough over the Eastern U.S. This will quickly tighten the baroclinic zone from the northern Gulf to offshore of South Carolina over the next 12 hours.

The surface cold front should progress into Central Florida by late morning, reaching Orlando by around midday before exiting the Treasure Coast late in the afternoon. It is likely to feature one of the more impressive temperature discontinuities that we have seen in recent history down here, as highs reach the low 80s along the coast from Melbourne southward. Meanwhile, temps behind the front will likely tumble into the upper 40s by early afternoon near and northwest of Orlando. Those areas basking in the 70s and 80s will find their temperatures crashing by more than 20 degrees once the front passes by.

In the boundary layer, an impressive mass response is expected, with a leading low-level jet segment of 35-40 KT ahead of the front, followed by a 30-40 KT post-frontal wind surge driven by rapid pressure (isallobaric) rises. This prompted the issuance of a Wind ADVISORY, starting around Greater Orlando and Daytona Beach from mid-morning to mid-afternoon before expanding to include the Space and Treasure Coasts through the afternoon and early evening. Surface wind gusts from 35-45 mph are forecast, with a 60% or greater probability of occurrence within the advisory area. There is also a roughly 10% chance of a peak wind gust to around 50 mph.

Scattered rain is likely to occur with the front, especially near and north of I-4. Rain chances quickly decrease as one travels southward from there.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Current-Tonight... A cold front is analyzed across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region this afternoon. Cloud cover will continue to build across the region this evening as the front approaches northeast and central Florida. Increasing cloud cover combined with light southerly flow should keep temperatures warmer overnight, with lows in the 50s. Mostly dry through the overnight with isolated showers beginning to approach Lake and Volusia county near sunrise, ahead of the front.

Sunday-Monday... A mid/upper level trough swings across the eastern U.S. and through Florida on Sunday. A cold front advances ahead of the feature aloft as a surface low lifts across the western Atlantic. Models continue to show better agreement in precip chances along and ahead of the front with the best shower chances (50-60%) near, north, and west of I-4. Low instability and a layer of dry air in the low levels should limit any lightning chances. Southwest winds ahead of the front shift northwest as the front passes late morning and into the afternoon. High res and global guidance has shown a noticeable wind surge along and behind the front with 925mb winds modeled around 35-40 kts. At the surface this could translate to a period of widespread gusts 25-35 mph with occasional gusts up to 50 mph possible. The wind surge is forecast to remain brief, limiting the need for a Wind Advisory at this time. However, a few gusty wind SPS products could be needed by late Sunday morning and into the afternoon. As northerly winds increase, a much colder and drier airmass will be advected across the region. While areas of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast could see highs in the mid to upper 70s with a later frontal passage, areas across Lake and Volusia will be limited to highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s early in the day before temperatures fall through the afternoon. By early Monday morning, lows are forecast in the low to mid 30s across much of east central Florida. A Freeze Watch remains in effect on Monday morning for Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties where NBM probabilities suggest moderate to high confidence for temperatures to reach freezing across portions of these counties. Although the Freeze Watch covers all of Orange and Osceola counties, freezing temperatures are less likely (only 10-30%) around major urban areas including Orlando and Kissimmee. Continued north winds will drop wind chill values into the mid to upper 20s for much of east central Florida, and Cold Weather Advisories will likely be considered for Monday morning. The lightest winds are forecast in vicinity of Lake George where areas of frost are forecast. Otherwise, higher winds (5-10 mph) should keep frost widely patchy. Drier air and building high pressure will keep conditions mostly sunny on Monday, but temperatures are expected to hold below 60 for areas near and north of the Orlando metro. Further south, highs struggle into the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday-Friday... Surface high pressure across the southeast U.S. shifts offshore into midweek. As the high retreats, a weak inverted surface trough develops offshore the Florida Atlantic coast ahead of a larger frontal boundary sweeping offshore the eastern U.S. coast. Dry conditions persist through Wednesday with a chance for showers (30-50%) and storms returning to the forecast on Thursday. Low temperatures hold below normal Tuesday (mid30s-mid40s), continuing a warming trend into Wednesday (low40s-low50s). Patchy frost will remain possible for areas north and west of I-4 Tuesday morning. High temperatures trend into the 70s by Wednesday and into late week.

MARINE

Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A short period of favorable boating conditions continues today as high pressure gradually retreats seaward. A strong cold front approaches the area early Sunday morning, passing the local Atlantic waters into the afternoon. Boating conditions rapidly deteriorate behind the front as offshore winds shift north, increasing to 25-30 kts, and a brief period of occasional gale force gusts will be possible. Seas build 6-8 ft into Sunday night. Small Craft Advisories will take effect Sunday at 10AM from Flagler Beach to Sebastian Inlet, extending to include the Treasure Coast waters at 1PM. North winds subside to 15-20 kts through the evening while hazardous seas linger across the Gulf Stream, gradually improving Monday. A surface trough develops over the waters into mid week, maintaining and extended period of poor conditions. Scattered rain chances are forecast with the front on Sunday, drying behind the front. Scattered to numerous showers return again Thursday into late week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 619 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

MCO IMPACTS: - Powerful cold front arrives around 18/17Z with abruptly stronger northwesterly wind gusts. 68-80% chance of wind gusts >= 30 KT. - Brief CIG reductions and showers along and just behind the front on Sunday midday-early afternoon.

CROSSWIND POTENTIAL: along the front on Sunday early afternoon... MCO 18/36 & 17/35: 15-20 KT DAB 07/25: 20-28 KT

Quiet conds prevail tonight with light/var winds. Will monitor for patchy ground fog at our Treasure Coast terminals, but confidence too low for mention in TAF. All focus should be on the sharp cold front arriving from NW to SE on Sunday late morning - mid afternoon. Sudden wind shifts from SW to NW are anticipated as the front passes. In addition, peak gusts from 30-35 KT appear likely (~ 60% +) with localized gusts to 40-45 KT a lower, but non-zero probability. Guidance temporarily restricts CIGs to MVFR or even IFR along and just behind the front.

Clouds scatter and gusts quickly decrease Sunday evening as the front sweeps offshore.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front is forecast to move southward across east central Florida on Sunday, and a dry, cold air mass will settle across the area behind it. This drier air mass is anticipated to result in sensitive fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values are forecast to fall below 35% on Monday across portions of the interior on Monday afternoon and west of the I-4 corridor on Tuesday. North winds increase to around 10 mph each day, remaining shy of critical thresholds at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 51 69 33 57 / 10 60 0 0 MCO 54 73 35 58 / 0 60 0 0 MLB 55 79 37 61 / 0 30 0 0 VRB 55 81 38 63 / 10 20 0 0 LEE 52 65 31 57 / 20 60 0 0 SFB 53 69 33 58 / 10 60 0 0 ORL 55 71 35 58 / 10 60 0 0 FPR 55 81 38 64 / 10 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-141-144.

Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

Wind Advisory from noon to 5 PM EST Sunday for FLZ058-154-159- 164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ572.