textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- An active weather pattern will persist across East Central Florida this week as onshore flow and high moisture supports above normal rain and storm chances, including during the overnights and early mornings. Strong storms will be possible each day.

- Primary storm hazards today will be gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue to produce heat indices in the triple digits through the week. Be sure to take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning if spending prolonged time outdoors to avoid the development of heat-related illness.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Today-Tuesday...A mid-upper level high pressure ridge over the South Central and Southeastern US gradually shifts east, while remaining far enough north that weak disturbances will be able to transit Florida and the Gulf aloft on the southern flank. Troughing over the North Atlantic downstream of the high weakens the Bermuda high in the western Atlantic waters some, but the surface ridge axis is forecast to remain north of Florida, continuing onshore flow in a plume of high moisture (PWATs 2.0-2.2", roughly in the 75th-95th percentiles for August). The general pattern will continue to be isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms developing over the Atlantic waters in the overnights and early mornings that may brush the coast, then additional showers and storms develop inland/near the coast along and ahead of a quick/diffuse east coast sea breeze in the late mornings to early afternoons, before pushing inland through the rest of the afternoons and into the evenings. However, broad instability due to the high moisture and disturbances aloft could kick off additional rounds of showers and storms at any point. This will also keep our chances for afternoon storms above normal (50-70% today, pushing towards 80% Tuesday), even though the sea breeze collision and highest chances will remain on the western side of the peninsula.

Model soundings show increasingly low-skinny profiles favorable for heavy rainfall, and mid-level temperatures warming to around -5 C in the very high moisture will support efficient rainmakers. While most convection should march inland with the sea breeze, steering flow is forecast to weaken and may even break down, allowing chaotic boundary interactions to dictate storm motion. Storms or heavy showers that become slow/erratic could deliver a quick 2-3" of rainfall leading to ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of urban, low-lying, or poor drainage areas. There is a very low (less than 5%) chance for one or two spots to receive +4" of rainfall, leading to greater flooding impacts. Stronger storms and heavy showers will able be capable of gusty winds 40-50 mph from water loading. Occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms.

Temperatures remain seasonably hot with highs in the U80s-M90s. We can thank the onshore flow, cloud cover, and high rain chances for making late August closer to normal than early August. Peak afternoon heat indices in L-M100s, and Minor to Moderate HeatRisk impacts forecast, with spots of Major around the Orlando Metro Area and coast. Very humid conditions after a quick rainfall can cause humidity and heat indices to spike, increasing the risk of heat stress. Be sure to practice heat safety, even when rain chances are high.

Wednesday-Thursday...The ridge over the southern US shifts towards the Mid-Atlantic while being flattened by a deep low pressure system working across southeastern Canada, further weakening the Bermuda high and possibly allowing the surface ridge axis to drop towards Florida. Low-level flow remains onshore, but may become lighter and develop more of a southerly component, especially by late Thursday. There is potential for a tropical wave currently near Puerto Rico (the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly) to pass near Central Florida, which combined with the onshore flow and high moisture, could increase the potential for heavy rainfall impacts. 18Z/00Z deterministic ECM/GFS continue to show a weakening wave tracking over South Florida to the Straits of Florida, while ensembles show more spread and the wave potentially swinging up towards Central Florida. Worth noting fewer ensemble members develop a trackable feature than 24-hours ago. The National Hurricane Center continues a low (20%) of tropical development as the wave moves northwest over the next 7-days. Run-to run QPF hasn't been consistent due to uncertainty in the track of the wave, but have indicated the potential for localized amounts over 4", and the Weather Prediction Center has outlined all of Florida in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday. Models continue to show swell from back when Dolly was a tropical storm arriving midweek, which could increase the rip current risk at the beaches.

Even with the tropical wave staying south in the deterministic guidance, model PWATs still push towards extremes of 2.2-2.4". The official forecast calls for broad, well above normal rain chances 50-70% approaching 80% in the late morning to evening hours, and lingering 20-40% chances overnight into the early morning, generally following the diurnal pattern of the previous days (Atlantic convection overnight, inland convection during the day), though morning chances do increase a bit. Instability remains muted in the very saturated atmosphere and warm mid-level temperatures, but gusty winds from water loading will remain possible. Storms will be capable of occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning. The slight weakening of the onshore flow will slow development of the east coast sea breeze enough to let highs tick up a few degrees, but remain in the U80s-L90s. Peak afternoon heat indices tick up closer to the M100s, but HeatRisk impacts remain mostly Minor to Moderate with just a few pockets of Major sprinkled near the Orlando Metro and the coast.

Friday-Sunday...Model guidance begins to diverge and forecast confidence decreases. Aloft a pair of deepening troughs over the Pacific Northwest and New England/Canadian Maritimes, the latter potentially digging all the way down the Mid-Atlantic seaboard, cause the ridge to amplify and retrograde back towards the Central US. At the surface the Bermuda high retreats farther out to to sea, causing the local pressure gradient to become very weak. The light flow offers opportunities for minor differences in the model solutions to gradually become bigger disagreements, and in this particular case, where the highest moisture will be. 00Z guidance is in a little better agreement than 18Z, where the GFS introduced drier air while the ECM remained very moist, with both packages now keeping high moisture in place at this juncture. There is also some uncertainty how far south the ridge axis of the Bermuda high will sag, possibly reaching Central Florida, and whether weak onshore flow continues or flow becomes light. The official forecast stays pretty close to the 01Z NBM, which is driven by the 18Z guidance, and calls for rain chances going into the weekend to drop a bit compared to previous days, but remain above normal. Temperatures are a tad on the hotter than normal side, with inland highs creeping towards the M90s, and the coast more into the L90s. Peak afternoon heat indices remain in the triple digits.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Today-Friday...Generally favorable winds and seas for boating, but isolated to scattered lightning storms will remain a hazard, including during the overnights. The ridge axis of the Bermuda will generally remain north of Florida and the local Atlantic waters, continuing onshore (E-SE) flow 5-10 kts, closer to 10 kts in the afternoons from sea breeze enhancement. Low pressure systems passing well north of the area may weaken the western periphery of the high at times, especially late in the week, resulting in lighter and more variable winds. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft well offshore in the Gulf Stream midweek. Onshore flow and high moisture will continue to support a daily pattern of isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms developing over the Atlantic waters in the overnights to early mornings, then pushing onshore with the sea breeze in the late morning and afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly west of I-95 will continue through this afternoon, producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions. A few strong storms possible, producing variable and gusty winds up to 30-40 knots, frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches. This activity should largely diminish and shift west of the area by 00Z, but may continue to see some isolated onshore moving showers along the coast overnight. Another early start to convection tomorrow with scattered to numerous showers and storms again developing along the inland moving sea breeze from late morning into the afternoon.

NE winds up to 7-11 knots will diminish and become light and variable tonight, and then pick up again out of the E/NE around 6-10 knots Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 88 76 88 / 20 50 30 80 MCO 75 91 75 92 / 20 70 30 80 MLB 77 89 77 90 / 30 60 20 70 VRB 75 89 75 89 / 40 60 40 70 LEE 75 89 75 89 / 10 70 20 80 SFB 75 90 75 91 / 20 70 20 80 ORL 76 90 76 91 / 10 70 30 80 FPR 75 89 75 89 / 30 70 40 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.