textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 254 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Lingering poor to hazardous beach and marine conditions persist into early next week with elevated wave heights, a high risk of rip currents, and rough surf continuing. Entering the ocean is strongly not advised!

- Dry and pleasant conditions are forecast to continue into Monday with no mentionable rain chances along with seasonable afternoon temperatures anticipated.

- Rain and lightning storm chances increase Tuesday onward as moisture returns to the area, with a slight warming trend towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Today-Monday... The upper level cut-off low and associated nor'easter off the eastern seaboard Sunday will lift northward, eventually pushing onshore across the New England coast by Monday. At the surface, broad high pressure will continue to build over the Florida peninsula as high pressure across the western Atlantic slowly builds westward towards the Caribbean. Locally, drier air will filter across the area, with forecast PW values falling to 1.0- 1.2" areawide. This will result in little to no rain and storm chances into early next week. The highest rain chances (PoP 20 percent) will be across the southern Treasure Coast on Monday. The pressure gradient slackens over the local area, with winds becoming light and variable through the period. Seasonable temperatures are forecast into early next week. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Sunday, and mid to upper 80s on Monday. Peak heat indices will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, possibly reaching 70 degrees along the coast by Monday.

Despite the pleasant weather conditions, beach and marine conditions will be less favorable into early week. Lingering seas will produce poor to hazardous beach conditions, with a high risk of rip currents continuing today and likely into Monday. Rough surf with breaking waves of 3 to 6 feet will continue today before falling to 2 to 4 feet on Monday. Entering the surf through Monday is strongly discouraged.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Upper level trough over the eastern seaboard early next week will push offshore by midweek. A surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly shift northward through the period, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally, onshore (east to southeast) winds will remain in place, with speeds generally 5-10 mph. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to around 10 mph behind the sea breeze. Moisture will begin to increase through period, with forecast PW values of 1.3-1.6" on Tuesday afternoon becoming to 1.6-1.8" Wednesday afternoon. This will support increasing rain and storm chances each day, becoming above normal by mid week. Highest rain chances will occur across the south, generally south of Orlando metro, each day.

Temperatures will begin a warming trend, with seasonable to slightly above normal conditions forecast. Afternoon highs will generally reach mid to upper 80s, with some locations reaching low 90s across the interior. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Thursday-Saturday... Upper cut-off low over the Great Plains on Thursday will shift northward, becoming absorbed into the trough over the Midwest by the weekend. An upper high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift westward, towards the Florida peninsula, through late week, with the center moving over Florida by the weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will steadily shift north and westward, moving towards the Carolina coast. Locally, east to southeast winds will dominate, becoming enhanced each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Moisture increases over the area through the period, with forecast PW values ranging from 2.0-2.4". This will support near to above normal rain chances each day, with scattered to numerous showers and storms areawide by the weekend. Slight warming trend continues through the period, with seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures forecast each day, as afternoon highs increasing about a degree in some locations each day. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 254 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Today-Thursday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions linger as seas slowly subside into early next week. Onshore winds today at 5- 10 KT will turn south to southwest on Monday and Tuesday at 5-10 KT before turning onshore once again behind the formation of the east coast sea breeze in the afternoon. Winds then become onshore mid week, increasing to around 10 KT each afternoon with the sea breeze. Seas 3-6 ft in the nearshore waters and 5-7 ft in the offshore waters today will subside to 2-4 ft Monday, 2-3 ft on Tuesday, and generally around 2 ft Wednesday before building to 2-3 ft on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf Stream waters through late morning. Small craft should exercise caution in all the waters through at least this afternoon. Dry conditions are forecast into early next week, with increasing shower and storm coverage across all local waters into middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR continue. Light northerly winds, or otherwise variable, are forecast before the ECSB pushes inland after 19-20z. Behind the breeze, 8-12 kt NE winds thru 01-02z (reaching inland sites by 22-00z). Light winds again after 03z Mon., generally veering SSW, or otherwise variable.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 254 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is forecast to continue to rise slightly, cresting on Sunday due to an ongoing period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels are forecast to then gradually subside through Minor Flood Stage early next week through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 84 65 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 85 65 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 84 68 86 72 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 85 67 86 71 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 86 66 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 86 65 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 85 65 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 85 67 86 70 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ555-570- 572-575.