textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across northern portions of east central Florida this afternoon into the evening hours and again across all of east central Florida on Monday.

- Hazardous to dangerous winds and seas will persist through at least Monday night. Gale-force gusts and seas building to 12 feet in the Gulf Stream. - Cold weather returns to east central Florida starting tonight, with the coldest temperatures forecast on Monday night. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for most of east central Florida Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Current-Tonight...A strong cold front will continue moving southward across the Florida peninsula this afternoon, bringing isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms to east central Florida, particularly along the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee through the remainder of this afternoon. The main concerns with any storms that manage to develop will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes and wind gusts to 50 mph. Activity is anticipated to move offshore and diminish into the early evening hours, with strong, gusty northwest winds helping to advect dry air in behind the front from the north. Dewpoints are anticipated to drop rapidly due to the dry air and in combination with the gusty winds, fire weather concerns remain elevated through the evening and overnight hours. Residents and visitors of east central Florida are strongly encouraged to practice fire safety.

The advection of a new air mass towards east central Florida brings not only drier conditions, but also colder temperatures. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the mid 30s to low 40s areawide, which is well below normal for this time of year. Persistent strong and gusty winds overnight will also produce wind chill values below 30 degrees across much of east central Florida and a COld Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of east central Florida. Residents and visitors are advised to dress appropriately, practice space heater safety, bring pets indoors, and protect sensitive plants.

Monday-Tuesday...High pressure will establish itself across the southeastern US, keeping conditions dry locally through early this week. Winds remain breezy and gusty out of the northwest through Monday, with gusts to 25 mph possible at times. This combined with the dry air will maintain critical fire weather conditions through at least Monday. By Tuesday, the high drifts closer to the Florida peninsula and the pressure gradient loosens, causing winds to become lighter around 5 to 10 mph out of the west to northwest. Fire conditions will remain sensitive, even though winds will be lighter.

Temperatures will continue to remain cooler than normal, with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s on Monday and in the low 60s on Tuesday. The main concern will continue to be the overnight lows, with the coldest temperatures forecast to occur Monday night into early Tuesday morning. There is increasing confidence that lows will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s areawide, with below freezing temperatures forecast across much of east central Florida. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for most of east central Florida, excluding coastal zones from the Cape southward and all of Martin County. Additionally, a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed Monday night into Tuesday morning as wind chill values remain in the mid to upper 20s nearly areawide. Tuesday night into Wednesday, temperatures are anticipated to trend a couple degrees warmer, with lows in the low 30s across some rural portions of east central Florida. NBM guidance has a low chance (20-40%) for temperatures falling below freezing on Tuesday night within these locations, so will continue to monitor closely. Elsewhere, temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s. Lighter winds Tuesday night mean that wind chill values will not be nearly as much of a concern, however, this means conditions may be favorable for some frost development. Rural locations continue to be favored for the greatest coverage of frost, but have maintained patchy frost across a good majority of east central Florida. Plan appropriately for the protection of vulnerable and sensitive plants.

Wednesday-Saturday...The high pressure will continue drifting towards the Florida peninsula into mid week, eventually shifting offshore. The ridge axis will remain draped across east central Florida, drifting northward and southward and resulting in light and variable winds at times through the extended forecast period. Dry conditions will persist through Wednesday and Thursday, with mid- range model guidance hinting at the next best chance for rain occurring late this week into early weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the Florida peninsula. Stuck with NBM guidance hinting at a 20-50% chance of rain Friday and Saturday, but envision timing will be narrowed down as the guidance comes into better agreement. Temperatures slowly warm through the extended period, returning to near and even slightly above normal values by the end of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

A strong cold front will continue moving across the local Atlantic waters this afternoon, sinking south of the area by this evening. Strong and gusty northwest winds are forecast behind the front, which will lead to rapidly building seas and persistent hazardous boating conditions. A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters through 10 AM on Monday, where frequent gusts to 34 knots and greater are forecast. Elsewhere, a Small Craft Advisory will persist through at least Monday night due to winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 12 feet. High pressure slowly drifts towards the local Atlantic waters early this week, with the center moving offshore towards the middle of the week. Winds will gradually subside into Tuesday, allowing seas to diminish late Tuesday. A return of generally favorable boating conditions is anticipated by Wednesday morning, with light winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Low stratus clouds associated with a cold front that is passing through ECFL this afternoon will linger through late afternoon, resulting in MVFR/IFR CIGs lingering this afternoon. Have included TEMPOs for MVFR CIGs for KISM- MCO- SFB- LEE- DAB through 20Z. Scattered lightning storms are ongoing. Have included TEMPOs for 3SM TSRA with MVFR CIGs for TIX- MLB through 19Z and from VRB-SUA through 20Z. Breezy and gusty winds this afternoon with west to southwest winds around 15-20 KT gusting 25-30KT. Skies will become clear with VFR conditions behind the front later this afternoon/evening and will remain VFR/SKC through the rest of the TAF package. Winds will continue to be breezy and gusty overnight, with wind speeds at 12-15KT gusting 18-22KT before increasing once again to 15-20 KT and gusting 20-25 KT by mid Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to develop this afternoon and into the evening hours as RH values tank and winds increase behind a strong cold front. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and northern interior Brevard counties through midnight. A Fire Weather Watch will remain in effect for the rest of Brevard County. Monday, widespread Reg Flag conditions are anticipated across all of east central Florida as RH values fall to 20-30% and northwest winds remain above critical thresholds. Residents and visitors are encouraged to continue practicing safe habits to help prevent fires. Do not burn things in your yard, discard of cigarettes properly, and do not park cars over dry grass. While winds subside by Tuesday, sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated to continue through most of this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 36 56 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 40 55 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 38 58 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 39 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 38 55 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 38 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 40 56 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 39 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until midnight EST tonight for FLZ041-044>046- 053-141-144-247-347.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647- 747.

Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-447-547-647.

Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547.

Fire Weather Watch until midnight EST tonight for FLZ447-547-647- 747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ552-555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570- 572.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.

Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572.