textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- The high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend. Residents and visitors to Central Florida's Atlantic beaches should stay out of the ocean.

- Lower rain coverage this evening and Saturday. Breezy conditions persist with temperatures remaining above normal. - By next Tuesday and Wednesday, higher rain coverage and increasingly strong northeast winds are forecast as a front moves through the state. The potential for beach and boating impacts has increased.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Rest of Today-Saturday...A little drier than previous days, otherwise more of the same as deep high pressure over the western subtropical Atlantic extending over Florida remains in control. Ridge axis of the surface high keeps its station north of the area, continuing onshore (east-southeasterly) flow that could become gusty in the afternoons from sea breeze enhancement, especially along the coast. A few boundaries have managed to support some light showers, and couple lightning storms have managed to develop over the Atlantic waters off the Space Coast this afternoon, which could move inland. Could see showers and a storm or two pull off the same trick tomorrow, but otherwise dry conditions. Above normal afternoon highs in the L-M80s, and overnight lows in the M60s-70.

Sunday-Monday...Pattern becomes more unsettled as increasing moisture brings back chances for showers and lightning storms. High pressure begins to retreat eastward ahead of a trough swinging across the eastern US, and an approaching surface front. By Monday the front will have outrun its upper level support, which remains north of the area, causing the front to slow down as it sags into North Florida and towards Central Florida. This is where models begin to diverge, with the ECM pushing a weakening front front through a bit faster, transiting Central Florida Monday night, while the GFS and CMC slow a more active front to a crawl, potentially stalling near or over Central Florida late Monday into Tuesday.

A slug of moisture (PWATS increasing to 1.3-1.5" between the 75th and 90th percentile) advects over portions of South to Central Florida Sunday from the Bahamas in the continued onshore (east- southeast) flow. Rain chances increase to 30-50%, highest along the sea breeze collision across the western interior near to south of the Orlando Metro in the late afternoon/evening. Sharp low- level lapse rates will support quick updraft development, and while dry air aloft will be a hurdle for deep convection, it will also enhance downdrafts of storms that are able to punch through, producing gusty winds in addition to frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Moisture further increases Monday ahead of the front (PWATs 1.3-1.5" across most of the area), and while the polar jet falls short, an enhanced subtropical jet developing across the southern CONUS and Gulf starts to increase large scale ascent over Florida, bringing rain chances up to 50-70% in the afternoon and evening. There is some uncertainty in timing and location of the highest chances as differences in frontal timing begin to show. Could see a transition from isolated to scattered lightning storms to wider coverage of moderate to heavy showers through the afternoon and into the evening, also depending on the front's timing.

Even warmer on Sunday with afternoon highs in the L-M80s along the coast and M-U80s inland, 2-6 degrees above normal. Increasing cloud cover across the northern half of the area Monday brings highs to the U70s-L80s, while the southern half stays in the L-M80s. Overnight lows remain in the 60s.

Tuesday-Thursday...Potentially very active weather mid next week, including heavy rainfall, strong winds, and hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions. Models are continuing to struggle with the setup. GFS and CMC continue to call for a very wet several days as the front and associated high moisture stall across Central Florida, which combined with the upper level support from the subtropical jet, would produce high coverage of showers and storms, while the ECM manages to push the front and most of the moisture into South Florida by Wednesday, resulting in a soggy Tuesday but drier outlook for Wednesday onward. The former scenario could result in widespread rainfall amounts over 2" (which would be helpful for the drought), and locally higher amounts over 6" (which could lead to flooding especially if received too quickly). Either way the front goes, northeast winds are likely to increase as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and strong high pressure building to the north, producing a fresh to possibly strong northeast breeze, with gusts that could reach 40 mph, worsening beach and marine conditions. Ensembles generally favor the wetter/windier GFS/CMC solution, including the EPS, and is reflected in the official forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Rest of Today-Sunday...Ridge axis of high pressure anchored over the subtropical western Atlantic remains north of Florida and the local Atlantic waters, continuing moderate to fresh onshore (east- southeasterly) winds. Small craft should continue to exercise caution the rest of today through Saturday night for winds periodically increasing to 15-20 kts and seas up to 6 ft, especially in the Gulf Stream. Mostly dry, but isolated showers and even a lightning storm or two could form on convergence lines. Winds and to some extent seas become more favorable for boating Sunday as the high pressure starts to retreat eastward, but chances for showers and lightning storms increase near the coast and inland.

Monday-Tuesday...Winds and seas remain generally favorable for boating most of Monday, but rain and lightning storms chances further increase ahead of an approaching front. The front is forecast to slow as it reaches Florida late Monday into Tuesday, and there is some uncertainty how far/fast it will push into/through Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Winds and seas could begin to deteriorate as early as late Monday, and are likely to become hazardous to possibly dangerous by late Tuesday. High chances of showers and lightning storms continue as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Isolated showers ongoing this afternoon, mainly over the Atlantic and along and north of I-4. While most terminals will remain dry this afternoon, have included VCSH for LEE through 20Z for these isolated showers. E/ESE winds this afternoon are at 10-15KT with gusts 20-25KT (with the highest winds/gusts occurring along the coast). Winds will decrease to 5-10 KT overnight with coastal terminals remaining breezy a little past midnight before decreasing. ESE winds will then pick up to 8-12 KT across the interior, and 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT along the coast by mid-morning. Models are indicating isolated showers will be possible tomorrow, mainly across the Treasure coast. But confidence is not high enough to include VC wording in the TAF at this time. VFR through the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 65 82 66 84 / 0 10 0 40 MCO 66 85 67 86 / 0 10 0 50 MLB 69 81 69 82 / 10 10 10 40 VRB 67 81 68 82 / 10 10 10 40 LEE 66 86 66 87 / 10 10 0 40 SFB 66 85 66 87 / 0 10 0 40 ORL 66 85 67 86 / 0 10 0 50 FPR 66 81 67 82 / 10 10 20 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.