textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Drier today with hazardous surf and a high risk for rip currents continuing at area beaches. Residents and visitors should use caution at the beach and avoid entering the water.

- Hazardous boating conditions will continue all week long with Small Craft Advisories in place for the foreseeable future.

- Rain chances modestly increase Wednesday, lower a bit on Thursday, then ramp up again this weekend. Strong, gusty northeast winds are forecast Friday through Monday, once again worsening beach and boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Today-Tonight...Hazardous beach and marine conditions persist today as rough surf and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents remain at area beaches. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged! Northeast winds let up just a bit as the pressure gradient weakens slightly over central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters. As a low pressure system gradually moves away from the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight, drier air will filter south across Florida. Even where PW values remain near 1" along the Martin County coast, model soundings show the near-surface layer and every space in between above 850mb as very dry. A few CAM solutions try to develop extremely shallow marine-layer showers that approach the Treasure Coast from time to time, mainly this afternoon. With little model support overall, decided to keep mentionable rain chances out of the official forecast. However, a sprinkle or isolated, fast-moving shower would not be totally surprising across the far southern coast.

Forecast high temperatures remain 2-4 degrees below normal in the upper 70s/low 80s. Drier air and the northeast breeze will make for rather pleasant outdoor conditions. Tonight, temps may cool a degree or two more in spots as onshore flow weakens to 5-10 mph inland, 10- 15 mph at the coast.

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure remains in place over our area through the mid/latter portion of the week, while a cold front moves through the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions. This forces an old occluded front and strong low pressure system over the western Atlantic seaward Thursday into Friday. A modest pressure gradient around the southern periphery of the surface high reinforces onshore flow through this period, generally 5-10 mph inland (10-15 mph coast) each night and 10-15+ mph each day. Gusts will peak 20-25 mph, especially closer to the coast. Occasional gusts above 30 mph are a possibility along the Volusia/north Brevard coast Wednesday, highlighted by NBE probabilities of 30-50%. Slightly lower probs for 30+ mph gusts are present along the entire coast Thursday.

PW climb above 1" for most of the area Wednesday, allowing for more marine stratocu to develop, push onshore, and bring with it a chance for showers. QPF remains light, generally 0.05-0.10" for those locations that do see rain (mainly along the coast). Drier air makes another push south early Thursday, suppressing low rain chances from north to south on Thursday. Most of the area will stay dry Thursday. Temps are fairly status-quo, reaching the low 80s Wednesday and cooling a degree or two Thursday into the upper 70s/low 80s. Locations north of I-4 have the best potential at reaching the upper 50s each night, especially Thursday night.

Friday-Monday...A residual front, stretching from Cuba toward the southeastern Bahamas, becomes a fulcrum of sorts late this week into the weekend for low pressure to develop. Several surface-850mb reflections are apparent in medium range guidance along this front, albeit disorganized and generally elongated in appearance. High pressure over southern Canada and the Northeast U.S. pivots a bit farther south as it strengthens into the weekend. This really helps to tighten the pressure gradient over our area (00z guidance EC/GFS show a 8-10mb delta between JAX/MIA) and give a boost to northeast winds. Sustained winds Friday afternoon of 15-20 mph could reach as high as 20-30 mph Saturday and Sunday. Wind Advisories, especially along the immediate coast, will be given strong consideration if these model solutions hold. Another indicator of this stronger wind event is the ECMWF EFI, whose scores of 0.7 to 0.85 (Saturday to Sunday, respectively) signal an unusually gusty 48 hours. Strong winds could even continue into Monday before the high starts to weaken Tuesday and beyond. In short, this weekend will be windy and not friendly to any outdoor decorations/items that are not well- secured.

This uptick in winds will also lead to another hazardous coastal event with beach erosion, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents, beginning as soon Friday. Rain chances are less certain with the greatest confidence in measurable precip south of Cape Canaveral through Monday. The best chance for onshore-moving showers may arrive Saturday as a brief surge of 1.2"+ PW pushes onshore from the Atlantic. Otherwise, coastal showers at night will have a tendency to push farther inland during the daylight hours. Generally, 20-40% rain chances at the coast (up to 50% south of Sebastian) and 15-30% inland...with the exception of some higher chances on Saturday (50- 70% at the coast). More clouds will be in the mix at the coast with more sunshine across the interior. Daytime temperatures stay rather steady (upper 70s/low 80s), but overnight lows warm into the mid 60s/low 70s due to stronger onshore flow.

MARINE

Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

6-8 ft seas are being observed in the nearshore waters with waves around 10 ft at Buoy 41009 this morning. Small Craft Advisories continue today and for the foreseeable future as waves maintain at least 6-9 ft through Friday. Northeast winds slacken slightly today through Thursday as the pressure gradient weakens over the local waters. Fast, onshore-moving showers are possible again Wednesday, focused mainly south on Thursday, and then returning late week. By Friday afternoon and continuing into the weekend, high pressure to the north quickly strengthens and tightens the surface pressure gradient once again. Strong to near gale force ENE winds are forecast to develop as rain chances increase from south to north. Seas build 12-15 ft by Saturday afternoon, creating dangerous marine conditions. An isolated storm or two also cannot be ruled out, mainly south of Sebastian Inlet.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. NE winds 5-10 KT this evening will increase to 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25KT possible by mid morning Tuesday. Mostly dry conditions forecast for Tuesday, with a shower or two potentially making it onshore along the Treasure Coast, but confidence is so low did not include it in the TAFs. NE winds will once again subside Tuesday evening, becoming 5-10 KT overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 78 66 79 65 / 0 10 10 0 MCO 81 63 82 63 / 0 0 10 0 MLB 81 69 82 69 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 83 68 84 69 / 10 10 20 20 LEE 79 59 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 80 63 82 62 / 0 10 10 0 ORL 81 63 82 62 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 82 67 83 69 / 10 10 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575.