textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 205 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

- High Fire Danger across the area today due to breezy northwest winds and critically low RH values, with fire sensitive conditions persisting through midweek.

- Colder than normal temperatures will persist through early this week. Freezing temperatures and low wind chills forecast for much of the area tonight, with an increased potential for frost Wednesday morning.

- Hazardous boating conditions will continue across the coastal waters today into tonight, becoming poor to hazardous Tuesday.

- A High Risk for rip currents exists at area beaches today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Rest of Today-Tuesday...It's a brisk day across east central Florida, with breezy northwesterly winds and gusts 20-30 mph. Highs so far this afternoon remain in the 50s across the area, even down to the Treasure Coast. A few record cool highs are still under threat at Leesburg and Fort Pierce (see the Climate section for more details).

Breezy conditions will diminish this evening. However, continued winds 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast will contribute to a wind chill threat overnight tonight. Clear skies and low dew points in the 20s will allow overnight lows to fall into the 30s area-wide overnight. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for all but the Brevard barrier islands, areas east of I-95 south of SR-528 in Brevard County through St Lucie County, and all of Martin County. Lows in the Freeze Warning are forecast as low as near 30 degrees, with the exception of the Orlando metro which will likely remain just above freezing. A few spots in coastal portions of Brevard, Indian River, and St Lucie Counties, as well as inland Martin County, could approach 32 degrees near sunrise. However, this will likely be brief and confidence in seeing freezing temperatures is too low to include in the Freeze Warning at this time. Instead, all of east central Florida remains under a Cold Weather Advisory due to wind chills 22-30 degrees. Residents and visitors are advised to dress appropriately, practice space heater safety, bring pets indoors, and protect sensitive plants.

Dry conditions persist through Tuesday, as high pressure builds into the area. Northwest winds 5-10 mph in the morning will slacken into the afternoon, as high pressure moves over the peninsula. Temperatures will remain below normal, though slightly higher than Monday afternoon. Highs are forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The proximity of the high will create favorable radiational cooling conditions Tuesday night, with light winds and clear skies. Temperatures falling into the 30s to lower 40s once again look to remain just above freezing, with the exception of normally cooler, rural locations. However, areas of frost are forecast and Frost Advisories appear likely for much of the area. So, residents will want to continue to protect sensitive vegetation.

Wednesday-Thursday...After a frosty start on Wednesday, a warming trend begins by Wednesday afternoon, as highs reach near normal in the lower to mid-70s. High pressure drifts eastward across the Florida peninsula through Thursday, continuing the dry conditions. However, increasing southwesterly flow will begin to advect more moisture into the area ahead of an approaching front on Thursday. Thursday morning lows in the 40s warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s by the afternoon.

Friday-Monday...A pattern shift is forecast for this weekend, as a cold front moves through the Southeast US and stalls near the local area. Increased moisture will lead to the return of rain chances by Friday, with scattered showers then remaining possible for the weekend. Confidence in rainfall amounts remains low, but this looks to be the best chance for widespread beneficial rainfall in at least several weeks. A few lightning storms will be possible with the presence of modest instability. High temperatures in the 80s Friday will cool into the 70s across coastal areas this weekend, due to increasing onshore flow.

MARINE

Issued at 205 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Hazardous boating conditions continue across the local Atlantic waters through tonight, due to northwest winds 20-25 kts, though seas up to 6-12 ft this afternoon will diminish to 6-9 ft by sunrise. High pressure builds across the peninsula and into the Atlantic through midweek, reducing wind speeds as they veer from northwest to south and southwest and improving conditions. However, poor boating conditions will linger into Tuesday night, particularly in the Gulf Stream due to seas up to 6 ft. A front then approaches late week and into the weekend, bringing increasing chances for showers and a few storms as it stalls near the area. A period of breezy offshore winds 15-20 kts is forecast Thursday evening into Thursday night, especially offshore, as the pressure gradient tightens.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1241 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions with clear skies through the TAF period. Breezy and gusty today with NW winds 15-20 KT with gusts 25-30 KT. Winds begin to diminish after 22Z along the coast (decreasing to around 12 KT with gusts to around 20 KT), before all terminals decrease to around 10 KTs or less between 00Z-04Z. NW winds will remain 5-10 KT through Tuesday, with winds becoming light late Tuesday afternoon as the high pressure moves over the Florida peninsula.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 205 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7 PM, as critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon. Breezy northwest winds, with sustained speeds around 15 to 20 mph and gusts between 25 to 35 mph combine with Min RH values in the 20s to produce a heightened risk for wildfire development and spread today. As high pressure builds across the area into mid-week, winds will reduce to around 5- 10 mph through Wednesday. However, very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist due to continued critical in the min RH 20s and 30s and drought.

By Thursday, southwest winds will begin to increase moisture ahead of an approaching cold front. However, min RH looks to remain as low as 35-45% for most areas and a tightening pressure gradient will increase southwesterly winds to 10-15 mph. By Friday and into the weekend, a stalled front will provide relief in the form of increased moisture and rain chances, though a few lightning storms will be possible.

CLIMATE

Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Highs will be around 15 degrees colder than normal today, and there is a chance for max temps to tie or break record cool highs at a few spots. Greatest potential will be at Leesburg and Fort Pierce.

Record Cool Highs for Today, February 23rd:

Site: Record Cool Highs Daytona 52 1989 Leesburg 57 1964 Sanford 50 1978 Orlando 54 1989 Melbourne 53 1939 Vero Beach 53 1978 Fort Pierce 60 1989

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 32 60 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 34 61 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 34 61 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 34 62 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 32 60 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 33 61 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 35 61 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 33 63 36 74 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647- 747.

Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447- 547-647-747.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.