textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Breezy/gusty west winds today will suppress the east coast sea breeze. Rain/lightning storm chances increase Tuesday with a risk of marginally severe storms (level 1/5) containing damaging winds. - A Moderate risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches this week; always swim near a lifeguard!

- The pattern is forecast to shift late this week as a weak "cool" front moves southward across the peninsula, bringing drier air, lower temperatures, and deteriorating boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Today-Tue...Weak low pressure will push off of the southeast U.S. coast increasing westerly flow across ECFL. This should keep the ECSB from developing most everywhere, but perhaps the Treasure Coast. Even then, it may be pinned at the coast. The offshore flow decreases into Tue with a better chance for sea breeze movement inland, though it will be slow and limited. A weak frontal boundary approaches from the north on Tue arriving across north-central FL late Tue night.

Shower and lightning storm chances 40-60%, highest across the north later today. On Tue, a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms will exist in the afternoon and evening. Highest PoPs this week on Tue (60-70%+). Storm steering will be offshore both days bringing storms back to the coast and out across the local coastal waters. Primary storm impacts include frequent lightning strikes, gusty to locally damaging winds (Tue) 40-60 mph, and torrential downpours. Minor/nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. Activity will diminish during the evening with clouds thinning a bit during overnight periods.

Very warm and humid early this week with highs in the U80s-L90s and peak heat indices ahead of storms in the U90s-L100s. Overnight lows mild in the 70s.

Wed-Sun...A weak "cool" frontal boundary will continue to sag south across the area on Wed on its way to south FL increasing cloud-cover and bringing breezy NE flow with lower temperatures behind it. Surface high pressure will follow it southward into late week with drier air across ECFL thru at least Sat. Presently, an inverted surface trough is forecast to push across the Bahamas and toward southeast FL this weekend increasing moisture gradually late in the period. Aloft, an east-west oriented elongated trough will push the aforementioned front southward Wed/Thu while gradually on a weakening trend. Mid-level high pressure will build across the Deep South behind it as a weakening mid-level low retrogrades across the Bahamas & FL Straits this weekend.

One more day of higher rain chances (50-70%) on Wed, highest south from Orlando, then a decreasing rain threat into late week - though highest precip chances (ISOLD-WDLY SCT) will be located across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County. Cooler on Wed/Thu with highs in the L-M80s, then mainly M80s on Fri, with M-U80s returning areawide Sat/Sun. Cooler mins as well in the U60s to L70s; except M60s possible for normally cooler locations across the interior and M70s at the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Generally an offshore wind component thru early week 10-15 kts. A weak "cool" frontal boundary sags southward across the local waters on Wed, with gusty NE flow behind it deteriorating boating conditions thru Thu as seas build, with improving conditions again Thu night/Fri. The NE winds will gradually veer more ERLY and decrease 10-15 knots Thu-Fri. Seas 2-5 ft thru Tue, then build late overnight Tue into Wed, with Small Craft Advisories becoming necessary Tue overnight into Thu. Seas will peak 5-7 ft near shore and 6-9 ft offshore. Seas will fall below 6 ft offshore late Thu night/Fri with 4-5 ft near shore.

Offshore-moving shower and lightning storm chances remain fairly high thru early week with overall precip chances diminishing in coverage (north to south) Thu/Fri. Some potentially strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Tue afternoon/evening. Primary storm threats will be frequent cloud-to-water lightning, wind gusts in excess of 34 kts, and locally higher seas. Activity will diminish late at night into the early morning hours. Drier air filtering in from the north will help decrease rain chances from Thu onward, though ISOLD-WDLY SCT development, especially across the southern waters, will remain possible.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR thru 15-16z before TSRA/SHRA begins to develop. Breezy with WNW winds 10-15 kt, gusting 20-25 kt at times outside of TS. The ECSB (if forming) will remain near the coast/just offshore. Earlier start to SHRA/TSRA expected once again (as early as 15-17z), with activity drifting ESE thru 00-02z. Highest confidence in brief CIG/VIS impacts and 35+ kt wind gusts includes northern terminals (LEE to MCO to TIX, northward). Added TEMPOs for TIX and SUA in this update, where model guidance is most consistent in TSRA. More isolated activity is forecast for Treasure Coast sites before lingering SHRA/TSRA drift south and dissipate thru 04z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 74 89 71 / 60 30 70 80 MCO 90 75 90 72 / 40 20 70 70 MLB 90 77 88 74 / 50 20 60 70 VRB 91 75 88 73 / 50 20 60 70 LEE 90 76 91 72 / 50 20 70 80 SFB 91 75 92 72 / 60 20 70 80 ORL 90 76 90 73 / 50 20 70 70 FPR 90 75 88 73 / 50 10 60 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.