textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Patchy fog is forecast Friday and Saturday morning with some locally dense fog possible

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents remains at local area beaches

- Warm and mostly dry weather through the middle of next week, though a sprinkle or light shower cannot be ruled out Sunday and early Monday

UPDATE

Issued at 620 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Model guidance has remained consistent with the expanse of fog development late tonight into early Friday morning, so decided to add in areas of fog into the forecast across most of the interior and along the coast from the Cape northward. Locally dense fog will be possible, with visibility reductions of 1 mile or less. Visibility reductions could lead to impacts during the Friday morning commute, so plan accordingly and ensure you practice proper fog safety while driving. If encountering reduced visibilities, slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance between your vehicle and the one in front of you. Some guidance has hinted at marine fog development, but lower confidence in that swayed the decision to keep it out of the forecast for now. Will continue to closely monitor and update the forecast as needed. Any fog that develops is anticipated to diminish after sunrise.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Now-Tonight...High pressure continues to provide pleasant, seasonable conditions across central Florida. A few cumulus clouds are noted on satellite this afternoon near and west of Daytona Beach and also across Martin County. Temperatures are climbing into the low 80s in most spots with a light onshore breeze developing at the coast. This evening, temps gradually fall into the 60s, reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s early Friday morning. With light/calm winds present and recovering relative humidity, some patchy ground fog (at minimum) is forecast. Models have been a bit overdone the past couple of days with regard to fog potential, though LAV guidance is hinting at a little greater possibility of areawide fog tonight. Keep this in mind before heading out the door on Friday morning's commute.

Friday-Saturday...Similar conditions are forecast tomorrow and into the first half of the weekend. High temperatures reach the low to mid 80s from the coast to the interior with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A few more cirrus clouds are expected Friday, due to slightly more moisture above 300mb. A light and variable wind Friday turns onshore in the afternoon, and then veers westerly on Saturday. Patchy fog is possible Saturday morning, particularly over the interior.

Sunday-Thursday...Upper ridging breaks down into Sunday as a weak cold front approaches central Florida. A wind shift to the north is forecast through the morning, eventually veering northeasterly in the afternoon and evening. Very light precip is indicated by a few models Sunday into Monday as the sfc-800mb layer moistens a bit. For now, this forecast includes a slight chance of sprinkles as the front slowly moves south across the area; however, mentionable accumulation was kept out of the forecast. Monday may end up a couple degrees cooler (upper 70s to low 80s) but the impact of this front looks to remain minimal.

Temperatures warm again Tuesday and Wednesday as onshore flow gradually veers out of the south and the H5 ridge axis moves overhead. Our next notable cold front arrives later in the week, perhaps around Thanksgiving Day, but uncertainty remains to the timing/speed of the front's approach. For now, the holiday looks to bring near normal temperatures (slightly cooler north of I-4) with increasing clouds and a low chance for sprinkles/light showers.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Favorable marine conditions are forecast into the weekend as weak high pressure remains in place. Light and variable winds turn onshore Friday afternoon, gradually veering westerly by Saturday (less than 10 kt). On Sunday, a weakened front arrives and gradually pushes south across the waters. Winds veer N/NE Sunday and E/NE Monday (8-12 kt). Seas 1-2 ft through Sunday morning, then 2-4 ft into Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1248 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas of dense fog have already developed from KTIX northward to KDAB and west to near KSFB. Predominant IFR/LIFR conditions are forecast across this area through 14-15Z Friday morning before fog begins to lift and diminish with daytime heating. Fog may continue to develop or spread through tonight, so will monitor for additional TAF updates. However, potential for IFR/MVFR conditions in patchy fog will be possible overnight tonight through early morning Friday for the remainder of east central FL. VFR conditions then expected to prevail after 15Z Friday, with light and variable winds become E/NE along the coast to around 7-8 knots with the developing east coast sea breeze.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 80 59 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 83 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 61 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 81 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 82 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 82 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 82 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-046- 141-247-347-447.

AM...None.