textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Very cold conditions will continue this morning, with a widespread frost and freeze forecast again tonight into Tuesday morning. A Freeze Warning and a rare Extreme Cold Warning are in effect for all of east central Florida through 10 AM this morning. Another Freeze Warning then goes into effect for much of the area tonight through early Tuesday morning. - Poor to hazardous boating conditions and a High Risk for rip currents and rough surf will linger early this week.

- Temperatures reach near normal values briefly into midweek, before another cold front leads to cooler/colder than normal conditions into late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Currently...Temperatures continue to plummet, with another widespread hard freeze expected across the area through this morning, as lows drop into the mid to upper 20s. These lows are forecast to again break daily records and may near all-time February lows again (some which were set just last night), mainly at Vero Beach and Fort Pierce. While NW winds are lighter tonight, wind speeds around 5-10 mph will produce dangerous wind chill values as low as 15 to 20 degrees early this morning. An Extreme Cold Warning continues for all counties through 10 AM this morning and a Freeze Warning persists through 11 AM this morning.

Today-Tuesday...High pressure over the Gulf shifts eastward and across the area tonight into Tuesday. After a very cold start this morning, max temps will climb a little higher than yesterday, but still be well below normal in the 50s, even under full sunshine. Another widespread freeze is expected tonight, as high pressure, light winds and much drier air will lead to favorable radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures should drop quickly after sunset. Some high clouds moving in late tonight may help offset the radiational cooling some, allowing temperatures to slow their decline overnight. Still, lows are forecast to reach the upper 20s to low 30s for many areas, and there is still a moderate chance, around 30-50%, for hard freeze conditions across normally colder areas of northern Lake/inland Volusia counties and across more rural areas of southern Osceola and Okeechobee counties. Portions of the barrier islands, highly urbanized metro areas of Orlando and coastal Martin County are forecast to stay just above the freezing mark. However, even for those spots that don't fall below freezing, areas to widespread frost are favored to form. Therefore, it's still important to protect sensitive vegetation from these frost/freeze conditions areawide tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for 11 PM tonight through 9 AM Tuesday morning for all of east central Florida, except coastal Martin County where a Frost Advisory has been issued for the same time period.

Dry conditions persist into Tuesday, with highs climbing into the 60s. Temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing into Tuesday night, but lows in the mid to upper 30s and patchy frost will be possible, mainly across the interior.

Wednesday-Sunday...Another cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday and eventually crosses the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Highs will be closer to normal, in the 70s, on Wednesday, with dry conditions prevailing. Rain chances then increase into Wednesday night, up to 30-50 percent, and linger into Thursday as front approaches and pushes through the region. Instability ahead of this boundary continues to look limited, so lightning storms are not forecast. Despite the brief rise in temps to more normal values midweek, temperatures again turn cooler behind the front Thursday and colder than normal into Thursday night. Lows are forecast in the mid 30s to low 40s, with a low to moderate chance (20-40%) chance for another freeze for rural areas NW of I-4 and inland areas south of the Orlando metro.

Behind the front, dry conditions look to prevail late week and even into the weekend, even as another front is forecast to push through the area. Temperatures look to remain near to below normal, but certainly not as cold as temperatures starting this week.

MARINE

Issued at 225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the waters through tonight. High pressure over the Gulf shifts eastward and across Florida, which will allow N/NW winds to gradually diminish from 15-20 knots to start this morning to 10-15 knots tonight. A Small Craft Advisory persists across the entire waters through mid-morning, and then gradually scales back to just the gulf stream as seas subside from 7-10 feet this morning to 7-9 feet across the gulf stream late afternoon into tonight.

Tuesday-Friday...High pressure across the area Tuesday shifts eastward through midweek, with ridge axis remaining across the waters. This will allow boating conditions to gradually improve through Wednesday, but seas will continue to be poor to hazardous, up to 6-7 feet, across the gulf stream into Tuesday. Another cold front will approach central Florida Wednesday night and through the region Thursday, leading to deteriorating conditions once again into late week as winds increase out of the W/NW up to 15-25 knots and seas build.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1230 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR and dry through the TAF period. Northwest winds around 10 KT this afternoon at all terminals with gusts up to 20 KT from TIX- SUA this afternoon. Winds then become light for all terminals with inland terminals and DAB also becoming variable at 23Z. Winds then shift northeast along the coast from TIX-SUA and increase to around 5-8 KT in the afternoon (around 17Z) with inland sites and DAB remaining light and variable through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

High pressure gradually builds in from the west and across the area tonight through Tuesday, which will allow north-northwest winds to weaken. Wind speeds will still increase up to 10-15 mph this afternoon and then become light and variable tonight through Tuesday. Critically low Min RH values in the low to mid 20s will continue areawide today, and will then be confined to mostly near to west of I-95 on Tuesday afternoon (around 25-35%). No mentionable rain chances forecast through early this week. Smoke dispersion values will be good to very good today and then become poor to fair on Tuesday as surface and transport winds diminish.

Winds increase out of the southwest slightly, up to 5-10 mph, on Wednesday as another cold front moves into the southeast United States. Min RH values will again fall to near to just below critical values, dropping as low as 30-40% across the interior.

CLIMATE

Issued at 225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Monday, February 2nd: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb 32 1980 50 51 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 2-Feb 29 1980 50 48 1980 71 Sanford (SFB) 2-Feb 33 1980 51 49 1980 72 Orlando (MCO) 2-Feb 32 1980 51 54 1951 73 Melbourne (MLB) 2-Feb 33 1980 52 55 1994 73 Vero Beach (VRB) 2-Feb 34 1980 53 55 1980 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 2-Feb 34 1980 52 57 1994 74

All Time February Records: RECORD RECORD LOWS COOL-HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 23 02/01/2026 43 02/09/1947 Leesburg (LEE) 23 02/01/2026 42 02/05/1996 Sanford (SFB) 23 02/01/2026 38 02/03/1951 Orlando (MCO) 19 02/07/1895 39 02/08/1895 Melbourne (MLB) 25 02/01/2026 43 02/09/1947 Vero Beach (VRB) 26 02/01/2026 46 02/09/1947 Fort Pierce (FPR) 25 02/05/1996 43 02/04/1917

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 30 62 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 34 64 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 34 64 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 32 65 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 33 63 40 72 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 33 64 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 36 64 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 32 66 43 74 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254- 259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347- 447-547-647-747.

Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.