textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Marginal Risk for one or two strong to marginally severe storms for much of ECFL through 9PM this evening - Heat Advisory in effect until 7PM today across the northern half of ECFL (heat index values between 108-112 degrees) - Hot and muggy conditions continue the rest of the week and into the holiday weekend, with peak heat indices 100-107F each afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast each day.

- Increasing moisture with an approaching front will lead to a rise in rain and storm chances through at least mid-week, with shower and storm coverage remaining near to above normal through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery currently shows light to moderate showers and lightning storms from Brevard and Orange counties northward. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate partly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Analysis charts show high pressure (~1021mb over the Gulf of America and a major shortwave trough over the western Atlantic. This morning's 15Z XMR sounding indicates MLCAPE at 2,305 J/kg, DCAPE at 1,218 J/kg, and 0-6km shear at 5kts coupled with 500mb temperatures at -6.6C. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 90s with heat index values up to 105-112F. Dew points are generally in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

Isolated to numerous showers (20-70%) and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening as boundary collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous storms. The greatest chance for showers and storms (50-70%) are from the Orlando Metro westward. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms for much of the area north and west of St. Lucie county with the greatest risk, mainly between 3PM-9PM. This morning's 15Z XMR sounding is not overall that supportive of severe weather with relatively warm 500mb temperatures, very weak low level flow, and very weak 0-6km shear. However, with a substantial dry layer in the mid levels and moderate to high DCAPE, a storm with marginally severe downburst winds cannot be ruled out. The main hazards are damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14%), frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3" in 60-90 minutes with a 1-10 chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 3" up to 4"). Rain chances are expected to diminish into the late evening hours by around 9-10PM. Above normal to record lows in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees are forecast overnight.

Tuesday-Wednesday... By Tuesday afternoon, a frontal boundary is expected to sag south across northern Florida before tracking south over east central Florida into Wednesday morning. High pressure over the Gulf of America and the western Atlantic ridge well to the east Florida will result in another day with a weak west and east coast sea breeze and supports lower PoPs along the coast (30-50%) with the greatest chance for showers (50-70%) and lightning storms over the interior. Showers and lightning storms are expected to develop into the afternoon and evening hours as boundary collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous showers/storms. The potential exists for a strong storm or two capable of wind gusts to 40-50mph with moderate to high MLCAPE, very weak 0-6km shear, and PWAT values between 1.9-2.3". Drier conditions are forecast across the north (30- 50%) on Wednesday as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags south across east central Florida with the highest rain chances to the south and west(30-80%). A Moderate to Major HeatRisk exists each day with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the low 70s to upper 70s. A Major HeatRisk can affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Remember to take extra precautions if spending extended periods of time outside, shift outdoor work away from 10am-4pm, wear lightweight clothing, drink plenty of water, and take breaks from the heat in air conditioning.

Thursday-Sunday... Guidance shows high pressure building over the Gulf of America with a mid/upper level ridge (up to 594dm at 500mb) building over the eastern CONUS late week and into the weekend. Generally, daily scattered to numerous (50-80%) sea breeze driven showers and lightning storms are forecast late week and through the holiday weekend. High MLCAPE, weak 0-6km shear, and sufficient PWATs will result in the potential for a couple to a few strong storms each afternoon and evening. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s on Thursday gradually warming, mainly across the interior into the weekend. Above average to near record lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Currently-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers and storms. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, as well as Tuesday afternoon and evening (a couple of which will have the potential to produce winds in excess of 34kts). Southeast winds at 5-10kts are expected to veer offshore overnight before veering northeast into Tuesday afternoon and evening at 6-12kts. Seas of 1-2ft with up to 3 ft over the Volusia and Brevard county offshore (20-60nm) waters as well as the nearshore Volusia waters on Tuesday.

Wednesday-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue mid to late week. Winds will turn onshore mid-late week at 6-14kts behind a weak frontal boundary. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast each day. Seas build to 3-4ft with up to 5 ft offshore Wednesday before diminishing into Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Light westerly winds (variable at times) shift east-southeast as the sea breeze progresses inland this afternoon. A few showers and storms have initiated along the sea breeze with VCTS included along the coast from VRB northward through 21Z/22Z. Additional activity has gotten an early start near and north of the Orlando metro with VCSH/VCTS mentioned across the interior terminals at the top of the 18Z TAF. Peak coverage of showers and storms is forecast near and west of Orlando late this afternoon and evening with TEMPOs included at MCO/ISM (20Z-23Z) and LEE (22Z-24Z). Activity may linger in vicinity of ISM/LEE for a few hours into the evening, and mostly dry conditions then forecast overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 91 77 89 / 20 50 30 30 MCO 77 93 76 91 / 30 70 20 50 MLB 77 91 78 88 / 20 40 30 30 VRB 76 92 77 90 / 10 30 30 40 LEE 79 93 77 92 / 30 70 30 30 SFB 78 93 76 92 / 30 60 30 40 ORL 78 92 77 91 / 30 70 20 40 FPR 75 92 76 89 / 10 30 30 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141- 144-247-347-447.

AM...None.