textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- An active weather pattern is forecast through the remainder of this week and into the next, with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms anticipated through at least Monday.

- Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, gusty to locally damaging wind gusts, and heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding will also be possible in some locations.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through next week, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide. Practice heat safety if spending extended periods of time outdoors!

- At the beaches, a Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the surf alone!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Current-Tonight...Temperatures will soar into the L-M90s this afternoon ahead of sea breezes/afternoon storms with peak heat indices of 100-107F. Deep moisture, boundary collisions and weak impulses aloft will aid in SCT-NMRS diurnal convection; highest across the interior. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms near/north of I-4 this afternoon and evening. Primary impacts from stronger storms include frequent lightning strikes, localized wind gusts up to 45-60 mph, and small to coin-size hail. Additionally, weak steering flow combined with PWATs exceeding 2" areawide will increase the potential for quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3", with some spots reaching 4" and greater within reach. Minor, localized flooding will be possible with storms. Activity is forecast to gradually diminish into the mid-late evening with cloud-cover gradually thinning. Mostly dry conditions anticipated overnight. Warm and humid with lows in the 70s areawide.

Sat-Mon...Unsettled pattern during this period. A weak area of surface low pressure is forecast to develop over the NE Gulf and now is forecast to linger a bit longer & westward across the NE Gulf. Gradual development of this feature is possible while it slowly moves across the NE Gulf, N/NE FL over the weekend into Mon. In the mid-levels low pressure off of the WCFL coast is forecast to move slowly toward the FL Big Bend into Sun and north FL Sun night/Mon. NHC has bumped up slightly to a 30% chance of tropical development across the NE Gulf and N FL with this activity.

The development of the low will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across ECFL, with southerly winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph areawide with some higher aftn gusts. Fairly deep moisture continues across the area with 30-50% PoP chances on Sat, 50-70% for Sun/Mon, primarily diurnally. WPC also continues to highlight portions of ECFL in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall on Mon due to saturated soils and the ongoing active pattern. Temps are anticipated to remain near to slightly above normal through the period, with highs in the L90s (ISOLD M90s) and peak heat indices 100-107F. Persistent lows in the 70s.

Tue-Thu...Previous Modified...The mid-level low over the southeast U.S. gradually diminishes into the middle of next week, causing the low at the surface to become diffuse. The surface ridge axis will lift north from south FL across central FL by late in the period, keeping winds generally out of the south outside of sea breeze formation "backing" winds SERLY in the afternoons. As far as shower and storm chances go, there appears to be drier air infiltrating the central/southern FL peninsula (highest values north FL) so week keep ISOLD-SCT (20-50%) chances in the forecast. Temps are anticipated to trend warmer mid to late week, with greater coverage of M90s for highs Wed/Thu. Lows remain in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Thru Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions into tonight outside of afternoon/evening showers/lightning storms near the coast. Offshore winds transition southerly, southeast along the coast, and back to southwest again tonight. Speeds generally AOB 15 kts - highest well offshore. Seas 1-3 ft, locally higher invof convection.

Sat-Tue...Unsettled weather pattern developing into this weekend as a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the northeast Gulf. Gradual development of this feature is possible while it slowly moves across the NE Gulf, N/NE FL into early next week. This will lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient increasing southerly (SW/S/SE) winds to 15-20 kts at times during much of this period. Seas generally forecast to remain 2-4 ft. ISOLD- SCT showers and storms are forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. The east coast sea breeze has formed and will push slowly inland producing an E to SE wind shift at all coastal terminals by 19Z. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA over the western peninsula will push an outflow boundary to the east coast where a collision with the east coast breeze will occur. So have upgraded the PROB30 at TIX/MLB/VRB to TEMPOs. Have brought forward the TEMPOs at MCO/LEE/ISM based on radar trends and there is potential for wind gusts 35 knots or greater. Lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the area by 00/01Z across the interior and around 02/04Z for the coast. Winds will then become light and variable once again in the evening and overnight hours. Winds will become southerly Saturday by mid morning and increase to 5-10KT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 92 75 91 / 20 30 10 50 MCO 75 93 76 92 / 30 40 20 60 MLB 76 91 77 91 / 10 30 10 40 VRB 75 92 75 92 / 20 50 10 50 LEE 76 92 76 90 / 40 50 20 70 SFB 75 93 76 92 / 30 40 10 70 ORL 76 92 77 92 / 30 40 20 60 FPR 74 91 75 91 / 20 50 10 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.