textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 149 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

- A strong, dry cold front will pass through the area tonight, with the coldest temperatures yet this season Friday into Saturday. Early morning wind chills are forecast in the lower to mid-40s, especially over the interior.

- The next chance for rainfall will be early to mid-week next week. However, there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. We are monitoring a low potential for heavy rainfall along the coast next week. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Earlier showers along southern portions of the Treasure Coast continue to drift south of the area this afternoon, as the earlier, weaker front settles over the southern peninsula. Deepening low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will drift NE through tonight, dragging a reinforcing, stronger cold front through the local area. Once the existing showers clear the forecast area later this afternoon, mostly dry conditions are expected overnight. Can't rule out a stray shower along the front towards morning, mainly over the interior, but PoPs remain 15% or less. Will start to see cooler air advect from the north along NNW flow behind the front, with lows falling into the mid to upper 50s from Orlando northward by daybreak.

Friday-Saturday...The low slowly drifts off of the Northeast US coast, as ridging drifts eastward over the central states. Locally, this will maintain NNW/NNE flow through Saturday. Winds 10-15 mph in the afternoon could gust up to 20 mph at times. PoPs less than 10% through the period, under clearing skies. Much cooler, drier air will be the main story. Highs will remain in the lower to mid-70s on Friday, beginning the below normal trend. However, they will struggle to hit 70 on Saturday, with forecast temperatures peaking in the 60s (10-15 degrees below normal). The coolest night will be Friday night, as lows dip into the mid to upper 40s. Coastal areas south of Cape Canaveral look to remain in the lower 50s. Winds remaining near 5-10 mph overnight will produce wind chills in the lower to mid-40s. By Saturday night, winds begin to veer NE over the Atlantic waters, keeping temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind chills in the lower 40s will remain possible north and west of I-4.

Sunday-Thursday...Strong ridging builds eastward across the US, north of the local area, from Sunday into early next week. Beyond that, the forecast remains highly uncertain, with little persistence from run to run nor consensus within the models on timing or development of features. Overall, higher confidence in onshore flow redeveloping over the Florida peninsula, perhaps becoming breezy to windy. This will help to warm temperatures to nearer to normal, in the mid to upper 70s for highs and 60s for lows. Moisture also looks to increase, with PoPs returning to the forecast. Will need to monitor the threat for minor coastal impacts and locally heavy rainfall; However, it is too early for specifics like timing and placement.

MARINE

Issued at 149 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Boating conditions deteriorate into tonight, as a reinforcing cold front moves through the area into Friday. Westerly winds freshen and veer NNW by daybreak. Wind speeds will be near 20 kts at times, specifically across the Volusia County and offshore Brevard waters. Small craft should exercise caution. Winds remain around 15-20 kts at times through Saturday, veering onshore by Sunday. High pressure building north of the local waters will maintain poor to hazardous onshore winds through much of early next week, with increasing rain chances. Seas 3-5ft, with up to 6ft in the Gulf Stream into Saturday. After a brief reduction on Sunday, increasing swell will build seas up to 5-7 ft early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1230 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

A cold front will move southward across the Florida peninsula today, with winds becoming northwesterly behind it around 10 knots. Some higher gusts cannot be ruled out at times. Dry, VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with skies gradually clearing through the day behind the front. Winds will remain around 10 knots out of the northwest into the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Drier air filtering behind a reinforcing cold front tonight is forecast to reduce min RH values Friday to 35-45% from Brevard and Osceola northward, and 35-45% for most of the area Saturday, at or below 35% along and north of I-4. Forecast NW/NNW winds Friday and Saturday are generally to around 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. Moisture is forecast to increase again Sunday into early next week, as winds become onshore.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 149 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid next week, but here is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any implications for ongoing flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 45 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 73 47 65 48 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 75 51 67 55 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 77 52 69 55 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 72 46 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 73 46 64 48 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 73 46 64 48 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 76 51 68 53 / 10 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.