textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 652 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Patchy to areas of dense fog are forecast for portions of east central Florida late tonight into early Sunday morning. The greatest potential for dense fog will be along and north of the I-4 corridor.

- Few showers and isolated lightning storms tonight into Sunday, mainly along the Treasure Coast.

- Behind a strong cold front, north to northeast winds increase on Sunday night into Monday, with gusts to around 35 mph at the coast and gale-force offshore. At that time, expect rough surf, numerous rip currents, minor beach erosion, and dangerous seas.

UPDATE

Issued at 652 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

A couple hazards to monitor over the next 12-15 hours.

First, we are still concerned that patchy to areas of dense fog will form tonight over the northern two-thirds of the district, including Greater Orlando. Statistical and mesoscale guidance continue to point at this potential overnight through sunrise. Already, winds are light and ample moisture is in place. Aside from the usual low confidence when it comes to radiative-type fog events down here, we also have some high cloudiness streaming in from the southwest. For now, the going forecast looks okay which calls for some fog formation after around 1-2 AM. Those venturing out late tonight should be on the lookout for sudden drops in visibility.

Moisture and energy are impinging on the state from the south this evening, evidenced by showers and storms roaming around the Keys at this hour. Courtesy of a jet streak over Central FL, mesoanalysis reveals a pocket of upper-air divergence over that area. Guidance holds a large chunk of this activity just to our south, but 20-50% rain chances sneak into areas south of Melbourne overnight into Sunday AM. There is also a low chance for lightning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight... Upper level low pressure system over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region today. Surface high pressure axis, centered across the Great Plains, will continue to build southeast across the Deep South as high pressure across the Atlantic waters builds over the Florida peninsula. Locally, dry conditions will dominate, with no mentionable rain chances. Dry air will continue to filter across the area, with forecast PW values around 0.7-1.0" today. Northeast to east winds this morning will veer east to southeast this afternoon with speeds at 5-10 mph.

Guidance is showing patchy to areas of fog developing late tonight into early Sunday morning across portions of east central Florida, mainly from Melbourne to Lake Okeechobee northward and westward, with areas of fog generally along and north of the I-4 corridor. Remember if you encounter fog while driving, slow down and use your headlights. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will range from mid 50s across the far north to mid 60s across the far south on tonight.

Sunday-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region on Sunday before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front into Sunday. This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward on Sunday, with a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county.

The next cold front will push across east central Florida Sunday evening into Sunday night. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances Sunday night through Monday. However, winds will increase across the local area as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast) Sunday night into Monday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Sunday will increase to 10-15 mph (and 15-20 mph along the coast) Sunday night with gusts 20-30 mph through Monday. A wind advisory will likely be needed Sunday night through Monday. Those strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion during that time (roughly encompassing 1-2 high tide cycles). A High Surf advisory may be needed.

Temperatures will be above normal on Sunday before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south on Sunday night, and range from low 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night.

Tuesday-Friday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday, first dropping into north Florida before reaching the far north part of the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday and Friday, with isolated showers forecast along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast both days. The frontal passage Friday night looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas.

Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night and Friday night.

MARINE

Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Today-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure across the Atlantic waters will produce favorable boating conditions today. East to southeast winds around 10 KT on today will veer northwest and increase to 15-20 KT on Sunday. Seas 1-3ft today will increase to 2-4ft on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions through today, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms on Sunday.

Winds will increase Sunday night into Monday out of the north as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind a cold front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20- 30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore and up to 12 ft in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Watch has been issued for the Volusia waters starting at 21Z on Sunday and going through 12Z Monday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Brevard waters for 21Z Sunday, expanding to the Treasure Coast waters starting at 03Z Monday and replacing the Gale Watch across the Volusia waters starting 12Z on Monday. The SCA will likely need to be extended in time for the Gulf Stream waters. NE winds decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday before veering E/NE Tuesday at 10- 15 KT, and E/SE on Wednesday. Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday with lingering 7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream before decreasing to 3-4ft on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 652 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

MCO IMPACTS: - Medium chance (40%) for VIS restrictions to IFR, 14/09-13Z. - Low chance (20%) for LIFR visibilities around sunrise.

Seasonably ample moisture and very light winds overnight set the table for fog development. Models are insistent on this occurring, especially for the Greater Orlando and Daytona terminals. Caveat will be some passing mid/high cloudiness. MCO TAF is somewhat conservative (meaning, there is potential for worse conditions than the TAF shows); trends will be monitored. Worst conds are expected from around 08-09Z through around 13Z. VFR should prevail thereafter.

At the same time, a few showers and isolated lightning are forecast to move NE'erly from SoFlo into the Treasure Coast after midnight. This activity looks rather scattered through Sunday AM.

Late in the TAF period, a cold front approaches the terminals, turning winds northerly and gusty on Sunday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 55 77 50 62 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 60 78 52 64 / 10 0 0 10 MLB 62 78 57 67 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 62 79 59 69 / 30 20 10 10 LEE 57 77 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 58 78 50 63 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 59 77 51 63 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 61 80 59 69 / 40 30 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572.