textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Gusty northerly winds of 25-30 mph (highest coast) for much of the area today. Breezy winds continue on Saturday with northerly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will persist into at least Saturday and likely into the weekend. Rip Current Statements, High Surf Advisories, Coastal Flood Advisories, and Small Craft Advisories have been issued. Residents and visitors should stay out of the life-threatening surf.

- A taste of fall is in store for the rest of the week and into early next week, as drier and somewhat cooler conditions gradually filter down the peninsula.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Today-Tonight... An upper level trough off the North Carolina/Virgina coast will slowly shift northward, becoming cut-off by tonight into Saturday. At the surface, the cold front across South Florida will continue to shift southward through the day, eventually pushing into the Straits of Florida by tonight. Locally, the pressure gradient will remain fairly tight, with northerly winds forecast to be 15-20 mph (10-15 mph well inland) with gusts 25-30 mph (highest toward the coast). Drier air will continue to filter across the area today, with forecast PW values around 1.3-1.5" this afternoon, which will help limit convection. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain, mainly along the coast and around Lake Okeechobee. Main storm hazards today will be heavy downpours of 1-3", brief gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and occasional lightning strikes.

Hazardous beach and marine conditions will persist today due to these strong north to northeast winds. Dangerous life-threatening rip currents, and rough surf will continue with large, breaking waves of 4-8 ft. Expect minor coastal flooding along the Volusia coast and intracoastal waters. Residents and visitors should stay out of the dangerous surf.

Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly below normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Due to the drier air, peak heat indices will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Lows are forecast to dip into the 60s for the first time since June (see Climate section below for dates).

Saturday-Monday... Upper level cut-off low pressure system off the North Carolina/Virgina coast Saturday will steadily lift northward, eventually pushing onshore across the New England coast by early next week. At the surface, weakening high pressure will shifts into the southeast US as high pressure across the western Atlantic will slowly build westward towards the Caribbean. At the same time, the frontal boundary that pushed through the Florida peninsula on Thursday, will stall across the Straits of Florida through the period. Locally, the pressure gradient will loosen as the cut-off low pushes northward and the high pressure moves into the SE US. North to northeast winds are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph Saturday afternoon, mainly along the coast, before decreasing to 5-10 mph and veering east to southeast through the rest of the period. Drier air will filter across the local area, with forecast PW values ranging from 0.8-1.1" through Sunday before moisture begins to increase on Monday (PW values 1.3-1.5"). This will result in below normal rain chances Saturday and Sunday before becoming near normal for portions of east central Florida on Monday with a return of lightning storm chances as well. There is a low (20 percent) chance of rain on Saturday across southern Treasure Coast, no mentionable rain chances (less than 10 percent) on Sunday, and a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain across the Treasure Coast and around Lake Okeechobee on Monday.

Despite the winds decreasing, significant beach and marine hazards will continue through the weekend. A High Risk of rip currents, rough surf and a long period swell, which may cause minor beach and dune erosion, will continue at all area beaches through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for all the Atlantic waters through Saturday morning, with portions of the waters remaining in an SCA through at least the weekend. Entering the surf is not advised through at least the weekend.

Seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast this weekend before becoming more seasonable early next week. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday before increasing to mid to upper 80s on Monday. Morning lows will continue to be cooler, with temperatures in the 60s each day.

Tuesday-Thursday... Upper level trough over the eastern seaboard early next week will push off shore by midweek. A surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly shift northward through the period. Model solutions begin to diverge later into the period. The global models vary slightly in timing and location of a mid- upper level trough and associated surface low swinging across the CONUS, bringing the attendant surface front towards Florida mid to late next week. Locally, onshore winds will remain in place, although there is some uncertainty if the winds will be more easterly or southeasterly. Moisture looks to recover slightly, however exactly how much remains in questions as forecast PW values range from near to below normal to above normal depending on the model. This has resulted in decreasing confidence in forecast rain chances and heat impacts. For now, have rain chances broadly increasing from near/below normal Tuesday, becoming near/above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Lightning storm chances also return on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be seasonably warm once again, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Due to the increase in moisture, peak heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s.

MARINE

Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Today-Tuesday... Boating conditions continue to deteriorate today behind the recent cold front that is pushing southward. North to northeast winds 15-25 KT with gusts 25-30 KT today will slacken to 15-20 KT with gusts to 25 KT tonight, 10-15 KT Saturday, and generally around 10 KT Sunday. Winds then shift offshore by Monday and Tuesday, remaining light before backing onshore each afternoon with the east coast sea breeze and increasing to around 10 KT. Seas 4-9 ft in the nearshore waters and 8-12 ft in the offshore waters today will subside to 4-8ft in the nearshore and 7-10 ft in the offshore waters tonight before becoming 3-7ft by Sunday, 3-5ft on Monday, and 2-3ft on Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters today and into Saturday afternoon. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will remain through at least the weekend.

Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and storms will continue to be possible across all the waters through today, becoming confined to just the Treasure Coast waters on Saturday, with no mentionable rain chances on Sunday. Rain chances return on Monday as moisture increases once again, with isolated to scattered showers and storms focused across the Treasure Coast waters, and scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast across all the waters on Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

MVFR CIGs (occasional VFR) to continue areawide thru at least 11-13z with gradual improvement after 14-16z inland. Coastal sites maintain at least a 20-40% prob for MVFR CIGs (00z HREF) thru 21z, followed by gradual improvement. VCSH to persist at coastal sites, too, ending from DAB (after 18z) to SUA (after 00z). NNW winds 10-14 kt (or less) inland thru 14-15z, then gusting to around 20 kt during the day. Coastal sites remain gusty thru at least 00z Sat., reaching 20-25+ kt at times.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The St Johns River at Astor is currently in Minor Flood Stage, 2.4 feet, and is forecast to continue to rise through Minor Flood Stage into Sunday due to an ongoing period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels are forecast to remain steady thereafter.

CLIMATE

Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Last date the temperature was below 70 degrees (F) this year at select sites:

DAB: June 8th (67 deg) LEE: June 8th (68 deg) SFB: June 8th (67 deg) MCO: June 8th (69 deg) MLB: June 8th (68 deg) VRB: June 11th (69 deg) FPR: June 11th (69 deg)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 81 67 82 65 / 30 0 0 0 MCO 84 66 85 65 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 84 70 83 69 / 30 10 0 0 VRB 85 70 84 68 / 30 20 0 0 LEE 85 65 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 82 65 84 64 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 83 66 84 65 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 85 69 84 67 / 30 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for FLZ141.

High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.