textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Isolated shower chances continue tonight into tomorrow, primarily south of Cape Canaveral and over the local Atlantic waters

- Continued warming trend late this week into the weekend with near record highs in a few locations by Sunday

- Below-normal temperatures return early next week behind a strong cold front, which looks to push through on Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Now-Tonight...Fair weather continues this afternoon with a mix of sun and onshore-moving clouds. The leading edge of these clouds outlines the westward advance of the east coast sea breeze. Temperatures are climbing into the upper 60s and mid 70s, a full 5-10+ degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Breezy conditions (gusty along the coast) will gradually subside inland after sunset, while remaining breezy at the coast, south of Cape Canaveral. As moisture increases tonight, isolated to scattered showers return to the Treasure Coast. The shallow nature of these showers makes them susceptible to low-level steering flow, which gradually turns from southeasterly to south-southwesterly overnight. Therefore, any showers brushing the Treasure Coast after sunset are more likely to trend offshore after midnight. Inland areas will remain mostly dry as overnight lows settle into the 50s (low to mid 60s along the coast, south of the Cape).

Thursday-Friday...High pressure gradually weakens through late week but maintains some influence on our local conditions. Onshore flow is forecast to continue, turning more northeasterly Thursday afternoon as a stationary boundary meanders between the Bahamas and southeast FL coast. PW around 1.4-1.5" linger near the Treasure Coast through Friday, helping to support isolated to scattered showers. These showers will be most prominent over the Atlantic waters but brush the coast or push onshore at times, mainly to the south of Cape Canaveral. Winds slacken on Friday, turning more easterly again, as a weak WSW 500mb pattern holds over the Gulf and FL Peninsula. Temperatures are forecast to climb above normal Thursday (mid to upper 70s) and into the 80s by Friday afternoon. Overnight lows will stay several degrees warmer along the coast due to onshore flow.

For those looking to enjoy some time outdoors with the warmer weather, keep in mind that the risk for rip currents will remain moderate to high. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to monitor the forecast if heading to the beaches. Always heed the advice of local beach safety officials and do not enter the ocean if there is a high risk of rip current development.

Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...By this weekend, a complex winter system impacting a majority of the central and eastern portions of the US will shift eastward, with an associated cold front remaining generally north of the Florida Peninsula. This will keep conditions warm and mostly dry locally, with temperatures forecast to reach well above normal values. Highs peak in the mid and upper 80s in some spots on Sunday afternoon. Rain cannot be ruled out entirely, with low chances along the coast on Saturday due to persistent onshore flow and again on Sunday across the north as the front inches closer to the area. Guidance continues to trend toward the front moving southward across the area on Monday, with rain chances of 20-40% forecast areawide. Mostly dry conditions are forecast into Tuesday as high pressure builds behind the front, though some lingering activity across the local waters cannot be ruled out. Colder temperatures will arrive along and behind the front, and another period of below normal temperatures, especially Monday and Tuesday nights, will be possible to begin next week.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Poor boating conditions will linger over the offshore waters through Friday morning as 6 ft seas and an onshore breeze continue. Low-level moisture is forecast to increase from south north, raising rain chances to 20-45% (highest over the Gulf Stream).

Weak high pressure influences local marine conditions through the weekend with seas 3-5 ft through Saturday. Timing of a strong cold front continues to trend toward Monday, though in advance of the front, winds increase out of the south-southwest on Sunday. Seas build in response, particularly offshore, up to 6 to 8 ft. As the strong front pushes south across the waters early next week, north winds strengthen and build seas further. Hazardous boating conditions are anticipated as a result. Rain chances also increase with the passage of the front from Sunday night through Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1232 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. ENE winds will increase to 08-13 KT this afternoon with gusts 18- 22 KT along the coast, mainly from MLB southward. Winds decrease to 5-10 KT, becoming light and variable at times across the interior before winds increase to around 10 KT by mid-morning Thursday (around 15Z). Onshore moving showers will be possible starting this afternoon and going through tomorrow afternoon across the Treasure Coast. Probability is highest from VRB southward, but there is a 20 percent chance showers could make it up to MLB into tonight. Have included VCSH for now from VRB southward, and will monitor for sites northward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 55 74 57 78 / 0 10 0 10 MCO 57 76 59 80 / 0 10 0 10 MLB 60 76 62 78 / 10 20 10 20 VRB 60 77 62 80 / 20 30 20 30 LEE 53 76 54 80 / 0 10 0 10 SFB 55 77 57 81 / 0 10 0 10 ORL 56 77 58 80 / 0 10 0 10 FPR 60 77 61 80 / 20 30 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.