textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Dry and increasingly warm conditions this weekend with interior locations nearing record highs

- Cold front Sunday night into Monday brings windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and a limited rain chance

- Beach and boating conditions will deteriorate Sunday night into early next week as winds create rough surf and building seas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Current-Tonight... The Palm Beach Terminal Doppler Radar has shown shallow shower activity across portions of Martin county this afternoon. Otherwise, conditions remain dry across east central Florida. Temperatures are observed ranging the low to mid 80s so far today, on track to reach the upper 80s and near 90F across portions of the interior. A surface ridge axis over the area will support light and variable winds and the potential for patchy fog late tonight into early Saturday morning. 12Z ensemble probabilities currently suggest a 30-50% chance for fog development across portions of the Orlando metro, Brevard, and Osceola counties. Overnight low temperatures mostly fall into the low to mid 60s, remaining a few degrees warmer along the immediate coast.

Saturday-Sunday... High pressure in place at the surface and aloft will continue to drive the local weather pattern through much of this weekend. Model sounding analysis indicates a layer of dry air persisting above 700mb. A gradual moistening of the low level profile below 700mb should support diurnal cu, but the layer should remain too shallow for any confidence in mentionable precip chances. The primary weather story going into the weekend will be well above normal temperatures. Highs forecast in the low 90s across the interior will near a few record values at some climate sites Saturday with the best chance at Leesburg (90F, 1990). Development of the east coast sea breeze should keep coastal counties slightly cooler, ranging the mid to upper 80s. Upper level moisture increases Sunday ahead of a cold front into early next week. This should support increasing high cloud cover, with interior temperatures slightly retreating into the upper 80s and a few locations nearing 90F. Despite the slight decrease in temperatures across the interior Sunday, high temperatures along the coast are forecast to hold steady in the mid to upper 80s as developing offshore flow delays the development of the east coast sea breeze. Low temperatures mostly range the mid to upper 60s each day.

Sunday Night-Thursday... High pressure breaks down aloft Sunday evening into Sunday night as the next cold front approaches central Florida. Gusty northeast winds spread the Volusia coast and through the Orlando metro region early Monday behind the front, increasing across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee into the afternoon. A broad plume of moisture lingering in vicinity of the front Monday will prompt the next best chance for mentionable rainfall, greatest to the south of Orlando and Cape Canaveral (30-40%). Dry conditions build again from Tuesday onward as the front stalls across the Straits of Florida and high pressure builds over the region. Windy and gusty conditions are forecast to persist into Tuesday, especially along the Treasure Coast before a loosening pressure gradient allows winds to gradually slacken Wednesday and into Thursday. Temperatures fall slightly below normal through the extended forecast period, beginning a gradual warming trend Thursday into late week.

MARINE

Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

High pressure will maintain favorable boating conditions through much of the weekend. Conditions deteriorate late Sunday night and into Monday as a cold front passes southward across the local waters. Increasing northeast winds 25-30 kts spread the Volusia waters early Monday, reaching the Treasure Coast waters into the afternoon. Occasional gusts near Gale possible. Seas become hazardous, building 8-11 ft Monday. Winds veer slightly east on Tuesday, diminishing to around 20 kts across the Volusia waters and remaining 20-25 kts south of the Cape. Onshore winds continue to improve Wednesday becoming 10-15 kts north of the Cape and 15-20 south of the Cape. Seas subside 4-6 ft into mid week. Dry conditions this weekend with scattered rain chances Sunday night and Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Light and variable to calm winds continue at all east central Florida terminals this morning. There is a low chance for patchy fog development across most of east central Florida, but confidence in this remains too low to include within the forecast. Will monitor and amend as necessary. Any fog that does manage to develop would diminish after sunrise. Winds pick up out of the southeast around 10 knots after 15Z. Progression inland of the west coast sea breeze may cause winds to become more westerly at LEE after 21Z. By 00Z, winds are forecast to slacken, becoming light and variable to calm overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A period of warm and dry conditions continues into the weekend. MinRH values fall near or slightly below critical thresholds over interior east central Florida on Saturday. 40 to 55 percent (or higher) Min RH values are forecast along the coast. Light and variable winds overnight turn onshore Saturday afternoon, reaching 10 to 15 mph. Occasional gusts around 20 mph are possible, particularly at the coast as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. By and large, conditions will remain below Red Flag criteria.

The pattern begins to change late Sunday as the next cold front approaches central Florida. A broad plume of frontal moisture will bring brief increases in minRH values early next week before quickly drying Tuesday into mid next week as high pressure rebuilds. Gusty northeast winds spread east central Florida Monday behind the front, remaining breezy into Tuesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 86 66 88 65 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 90 68 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 84 69 86 69 / 0 0 10 20 VRB 84 68 86 69 / 0 10 10 20 LEE 90 67 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 90 67 90 65 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 91 69 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 84 67 87 68 / 0 10 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.