textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

- Freeze Warning, Frost Advisory, and a Cold Weather Advisory remain in effect for much of east central Florida tonight into Thursday morning

- Significantly colder air arrives Saturday and Saturday night with lows in the 20s and wind chills in the teens to single digits Sunday morning; very cold air lasting into early next week

- Strong, gusty winds are forecast Saturday into Sunday with gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph at times, particularly along the coast Saturday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Now-Friday...A mostly clear sky this afternoon has offered limited surface heating with temperatures still in the mid 50s to low 60s. A few more clouds are building across Martin and Saint Lucie counties, where a small plume of 0.7" PW exists. Hi-res model soundings remain very dry, despite the thin layer of clouds, so any light shower that does form is likely to stay offshore or at most brush the coast. Thus, we do carry a 15-20% chance of light rain across southeastern Martin County through sunset.

Drier air works south overnight with winds remaining light, generally 10 mph or less. Under a mostly clear sky, temperatures will drop quickly into the 30s after midnight. A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory begins at midnight and continues through 9 AM Thursday. Probabilistic guidance remains largely unchanged, indicating the highest chance for sub-freezing temperatures (40-60%) across rural Volusia, Lake, south-central Osceola, and northern Okeechobee counties. Locations in and around the Orlando metro will likely stay a couple degrees warmer with outlying portions of Seminole, Orange, and northern Osceola counties approaching the freezing mark. While winds will be light, wind chill values are still forecast to reach the mid to upper 20s over much of east central Florida. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory is in place, beginning at 2 AM Thursday, excluding coastal Brevard County, the immediate Treasure Coast, and all of Martin County. For the latest hazards at your location, please visit weather.gov/mlb. Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold.

High pressure maintains a pattern of dry weather through late week as temperatures trend slightly warmer each day, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s Friday afternoon. Mostly clear conditions are in the works Thursday, though a few more clouds work across the south on Friday as moisture generally increases. Overnight lows settle into the 40s and 50s (upper 30s across northern Lake/inland Volusia Friday morning).

This Weekend-Tuesday (modified)...Deepening low pressure transitioning into an eventual nor'easter is still outlined by all available model guidance into Saturday. This low will form very close to Florida before lifting into the Atlantic. As it passes by early Saturday, we still carry 30-50% chances for rain showers. Rainfall tallies still look on the light side. By late morning and into the afternoon, a cold front passes through the area. The initial impact will be a burst of strong west-northwest winds. Peak wind gusts from 35-45 mph are on the table, and the latest NBME probabilities show at least a 20% chance of wind gusts 40+ mph inland (greater than 50% along the coast) Saturday afternoon and evening as the deepening low tightens the surface pressure gradient. Keep these winds in mind when considering when and how to protect any tender vegetation before the cold air arrives!

Winds veer slightly more out of the northwest on Saturday night, pushing Arctic air down the peninsula. Daily record lows are anticipated on Sunday morning. Temperatures will only slowly moderate, with additional freezes anticipated on Monday and Tuesday morning.

Extreme cold risks have remained consistent over the last several updates:

SUNDAY AM: There is a 60-90% chance of a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) on Sunday morning for all areas except Martin County (20-40%). Much of east central Florida currently has a 70-90% chance of wind chills in the teens.

MONDAY AM: The risk for a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) is 50-80% for many locations, except the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts where the probabilities are somewhat lower (30-60%). Bitterly cold wind chills are expected to persist, though with lighter winds (upper teens-mid 20s).

A hard freeze is less likely Tuesday morning, though sub-freezing temperatures remain forecast for a large portion of the area.

For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport.

With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event likely, residents, officials, and agricultural operations should be preparing for cold weather impacts. Those with inadequate shelter or heat will be most affected. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected.

High temperatures on Sunday should fail to reach 50 degrees near and north of I-4, perhaps reaching the low 50s along the Treasure Coast. By Tuesday, most spots should return to the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

High pressure remains overhead through late week, though north- northwest winds briefly increase overnight into Thursday morning over the Gulf Stream and portions of the nearshore waters. Seas build up to 6 ft as result. Small craft will need to exercise caution as this brief wind and wave height increase occurs, through midday Thursday.

All eyes are on this weekend as a deepening low pressure system forms offshore of the northeast FL coast, strengthening west- northwest winds to gale force by Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The latest marine wind guidance came in a bit high over the waters, especially with wind gusts, so leaned closer to the previous forecast, maybe increasing speeds by a few knots. This level of wind and seas building up to 15 ft offshore Sunday will create dangerous marine conditions through the latter half of the weekend and into early next week.

Until Saturday, seas remain 2-4 ft (up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream) Thursday afternoon and Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1232 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 5-10 kts tonight veer in the morning, becoming northeasterly by the early afternoon, then becoming light Thursday evening and night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Low relative humidity values forecast Thursday afternoon will result in fire-sensitive conditions for one more day this work week. Moisture gradually returns to the area Friday into Saturday ahead of a very strong cold front. A northeast breeze around 10 mph (up to 15 mph) at the coast) is anticipated Thursday afternoon, followed by lighter winds on Friday. Rain chances increase Friday night into early Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 61 45 69 46 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 65 46 71 50 / 0 0 0 20 MLB 65 49 71 47 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 67 49 71 47 / 0 0 20 10 LEE 63 43 70 46 / 0 0 0 30 SFB 64 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 20 ORL 64 46 70 50 / 0 0 0 20 FPR 68 48 71 47 / 0 0 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-144.

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ141-247-254- 547.

AM...None.