textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Locally dense fog development will be possible across east central Florida again tonight, continuing each night through this weekend

- A building long-period swell will lead to an increasing rip current threat at all local beaches this weekend

- A strong cold front is forecast to move southward across the peninsula early next week, bringing below normal temperatures areawide through the end of the year

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Tonight-Sunday...A mid-level ridge is forecast to continue drifting eastward across the Gulf and Florida peninsula through this weekend, with high pressure remaining in place locally at the surface. This set-up will keep conditions dry across east central Florida over the next several days. Northwest winds around 5 mph will continue areawide, veering to out of the north and then east- northeast on Sunday as the high shifts eastward. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s, which is approximately 5 degrees above normal. Overnight temperatures fall into the low to mid 50s areawide tonight and then only fall into the upper 50s to low 60s on both Saturday and Sunday nights.

While conditions are forecast to remain dry, there are other weather concerns anticipated across east central Florida. The first concern is the development of fog each night across the area thanks to a favorable fog environment (light winds, clear skies, high pressure overhead, a bit of moisture in the lower levels). Visibility reductions to 1 mile or less will be possible each night through Sunday night, especially across portions of Lake, Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and interior Volusia counties. Dense fog also cannot be ruled out, though there is lower confidence in this. Conditions will be closely monitored each night and Dense Fog Advisories will be issued as needed. Any fog that does manage to develop is anticipated to dissipate near to shortly after sunrise each morning. Those out on the roadways are encouraged to slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance between vehicles if encountering reduced visibilities.

At the beaches, a moderate to high risk of rip currents is forecast each day. Guidance is hinting at a greater potential for a high risk of rip currents over the weekend as long-period swells increase across the local Atlantic waters. Beachgoers are encouraged to monitor the forecast closely and heed the advice of local beach safety officials. During high rip current risk days, entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

Monday-Friday...The surface high weakens and pushes offshore on Monday as a strong cold front moves southward across the southeastern U.S., moving across east central Florida Monday night into Tuesday. The front is forecast to pass with little shower development across the peninsula, however, guidance continues to highlight the local Atlantic waters as having better chances for rain development Monday night into Tuesday. Behind the front, another surface high is forecast to build across the southeastern U.S. and the Gulf, slowly stretching towards the Florida peninsula mid to late week. A drier air mass settles across the Florida peninsula, with PWATs falling below 0.5" areawide. This will effectively keep rain chances near zero percent through the extended forecast period along with mostly clear skies.

East central Florida has seen a period of near to slightly above normal temperatures over the last few days, but there will be a noticeably cooler end to the year with the passage of this strong cold front. Highs on Monday will follow current trends, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s areawide. However, the approaching front will cause lows to fall into the mid to upper 40s near and north of the I-4 corridor and into the 50s southward. By Tuesday, temperatures fall into the upper 50s to upper 60s from north to south respectively. A sharp decrease in overnight temperatures is anticipated Tuesday night, with lows falling into the 30s across east central Florida, with some areas along the coast south of the Cape falling into the low 40s. North-northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph overnight will cause wind chill values on Tuesday to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across most of east central Florida. A couple of degrees warmer on Wednesday, with highs in the 60s, lows in the mid 30s to low 40s, and wind chill values in the 30s. The slight warming trend is forecast to continue into the end of next week, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and overnight temperatures falling into the upper 30s to upper 40s. Wind chill values will continue to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

High pressure remains in place through this weekend, keeping conditions mostly dry across the local Atlantic waters. Seas are forecast to generally remain between 2 to 4 feet through Sunday, though there may be some building to 5 feet across the offshore waters on Saturday in response to a brief northwest wind surge of 15 to 20 knots late tonight into early Saturday. Winds then subside to 5 to 10 knots through Sunday, gradually veering throughout the day.

By Monday, boating conditions are forecast to start deteriorating as a strong cold front begins its approach towards the Florida peninsula. Westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots early Monday increase to 15 to 25 knots Monday night ahead of and along the cold front, veering to out of the north-northwest behind the front and persist at 15 to 20 knots into Tuesday. Seas quickly build to 4 to 8 feet, with the greatest seas focused across the Gulf Stream waters, maintaining themselves into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers will be possible out ahead of and along the cold front late Monday into Tuesday. By late Tuesday, winds and seas finally begin to subside as the pressure gradient loosens and high pressure slowly builds. Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to return mid to late week, with dry conditions prevailing across the local Atlantic waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 546 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

MCO IMPACT: - Medium chance (40-60%) of IFR and/or LIFR conditions late tonight and early Saturday morning.

Quiet with light westerly or variable winds overnight. Guidance continues to signal low ceiling and/or fog development especially at Greater Orlando terminals, LEE, DAB, and TIX. For now, will handle with TEMPOs until trends become evident. On Saturday, any fog/stratus burns off by 14-15Z as winds continue W/NW up to 10 KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Tonight-Sunday night...Patchy, locally dense fog development will be possible across most of east central Florida tonight and each night through the weekend. Visibility reductions below 1 mile will be possible, and any combination of fog and smoke from fires could lead to further localized reductions of half a mile or less.

Tuesday-Friday...Fire weather concerns increase behind the passage of a strong cold front late Monday into Tuesday. While there remains some uncertainty in the forecast relative to exact values, there is a decent signal from model guidance that minimum RH values will fall below 35% across most of east central Florida Tuesday through Thursday and across the interior west of I-95 on Friday. Northerly winds on Tuesday may flirt with critical thresholds, with current guidance keeping wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph. Through the rest of the week, winds are forecast to remain at or below 10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 56 76 59 76 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 57 77 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 56 77 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 54 78 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 56 76 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 56 76 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 57 76 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 53 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.