textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Warm and mostly dry conditions close out the work week. A few showers and maybe a lightning storm could develop to the north in the afternoon and evening.

- Hot and windy Saturday ahead of an approaching front. High temperatures near records for the day in the low to mid 90s, including the coast. Frequent wind gusts 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon.

- Rain and lightning storm chances increase late Saturday into Sunday as a front slowly pushes through. There is potential for stronger storms and minor flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Today-Friday...Warm and mostly dry. A stationary front remains draped across the North Gulf Coast and North Florida through Friday, before a low pressure system developing on the boundary pushes the front south this weekend. Weak ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic south of the front extending towards South Florida today retreats farther offshore Friday. A few showers and maybe a lightning storm in the higher moisture near the front are possible in northern Lake and Volusia counties this afternoon/evening, then chances dip south a bit towards the Orlando Metro Friday afternoon/evening (chances 20-30%). Offshore winds north of the ridge axis and subtle height rises aloft as an upper level ridges slides across the Caribbean will continue the warming trend, resulting in afternoon highs in the U80s-L90s, lower along the coast as an east coast sea breeze fighting the offshore flow makes it to around the I-95 corridor, providing a little relief for the immediate coast. However, if the sea breeze is slow to develop or can't push inland, temperatures along the coast could soar into the 90s. This heat will result in Minor to Moderate HeatRisk impacts across East Central Florida, affecting those who are sensitive to heat and without adequate cooling and hydration. HREF continues to indicate 10-30% chance for morning fog, but other guidance remains 10% or less, so mention remains out of the official forecast for now. There is a Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents at the Central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a life-guard, and never swim alone.

Saturday-Sunday...Persistent mid-upper level troughing over the eastern US amplifies as upper level energy rotates through the pattern, digging the trough down into the Deep South, and developing a surface low near the southeast seaboard along the stalled front Saturday, which quickly ejects northeast while deepening. The attendant cold front is dragged across the Florida peninsula late Saturday into Sunday, but before that happens, windy/gusty and hot conditions are expected Saturday. Southwest winds ahead of the front increase in the afternoon to 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts to 25-30 mph, and a low chance (around 10%) for gusts over 35 mph. This strong offshore flow will prevent the sea breeze from developing, pushing afternoon highs into the L-M90s for the whole area, including the coast. These forecast highs are 5-10 degrees above normal, near record for the Space and Treasure Coasts, and result in Moderate HeatRisk impacts for most of East Central Florida.

Rain and lightning storm chances increase late Saturday evening, through the overnight, and into Sunday as the front slowly pushes through central Florida. Moisture surges near the front (PWATs 1.8-2.0"), supporting scattered to numerous showers and embedded lightning storms (chances 50-70%) Saturday night into Sunday. The slow movement of the front, high moisture, and alignment with southwesterly upper level flow (deep sheer 50-70 kt) presents a risk of training/repeated bands of heavy rainfall which could lead to minor flooding of low-lying and flood prone areas, and the Weather Prediction Center has outlooked portions of East Central Florida with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall Sunday. There is potential for strong lightning storms given the high moisture, modest instability (MUCAPE 500-1,000 J/kg), cool mid- levels (T500 around -10C) and strong unidirectional shear, capable of deadly cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and small hail in addition to the heavy rainfall threat. Still some uncertainty if the strong lightning storm threat materializes, depending on timing of impulses of upper level energy, and the shear not being too strong for the instability. Rain and storm chances finally taper off Sunday evening/overnight.

Winds Sunday more moderate from the north, but could still be gusty. Rain, cloud cover, and some cooler air brings Sunday afternoon highs below normal to the M70s-L80s. Overnight lows dip down to the U50s-L60s, except the southern coastal counties that stay in the M60s-70.

Monday-Wednesday...Elongated high pressure extending from the southeast into the western Atlantic, wedged between the stalled front over South Florida to the Straits of Florida, and another front working across the eastern CONUS, slides eastward in response to the deepening low pressure system associated with the front to the north. Residual moisture from the stalled front lingering over the Florida peninsula keeps low afternoon rain and lightning storm chances (10-30%) in the forecast, starting across the southernmost counties Monday then expanding northward Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures more seasonal Monday with afternoon highs in the U70s-L80s, then quickly warming back up to the L-U80s Tuesday and U80s-L90s Wednesday. Onshore (easterly to southeasterly) winds become gusty in the afternoons behind the sea breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Today-Friday...Generally favorable boating conditions. A stationary front to the north remains draped across the North Gulf Coast and North Florida, with the ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic south of the front extending to South Florida today, then retreating farther offshore Friday. Offshore winds 5-15 kts shift to the southeast from the afternoon through the early overnight with the sea breeze circulation. Winds could push to 15-20 kts south of the Cape Friday night. Seas 2-4 ft. Isolated showers and lightning storms (chances around 20%) in the afternoons/evenings in the north Volusia waters, otherwise dry conditions forecast.

Saturday-Monday...Boating conditions deteriorate as a front approaches Saturday then slowly pushes through Florida and the local Atlantic waters late Saturday through Sunday. Southwest to south winds 5-15 kts Saturday morning increase to 15-20 kts, possibly over 20 kts in the afternoon ahead of the front, veering to the north Saturday night and Sunday as the front pushes through, then to the north to northeast Sunday night as the front drops south of the local area, stalling over South Florida by Monday. Winds 10-20 kts continue to veer and slowly diminish through Monday, becoming easterly 5-15 kts Monday night. Seas remain generally 2-4 ft through Saturday, then build to 4-6 ft, up to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream Sunday and Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms (chances up to 70%) will accompany the frontal passage late Saturday into Sunday, decreasing Sunday night, with isolated to scattered showers and storms (chances 20-30%) remaining possible south of the Cape Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Westerly winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots continue through this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop sometime after 20Z and move inland from MLB southward, causing winds to become more south- southeast. VCSH possible near DAB after 20Z, and some VCTS cannot be fully ruled out. Shower and storm activity is not currently anticipated near any other terminals, though conditions will be closely monitored and amendments will be made as needed. Dry conditions through the overnight hours will winds lightening to around 5 knots out of the west-southwest. Winds are forecast to pick back up beyond 14Z tomorrow out of the southwest, with sea breeze development possible near VRB southward after 17Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Today-Friday...Sensitive fire weather conditions due to low humidity. Winds forecast to remain below 15 mph. Min RHs across the interior today 35-45%, lowest in Osceola, Okeechobee, and Lake counties, and 45-55% along the coastal corridor. RHs are currently forecast to improve a bit Friday, especially along the coast, but can't rule out similar values as today's. West- southwest winds around 5 mph in the morning increase to around 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds a bit lighter Friday, increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon. The sea breeze will be pinned near the coast due to the offshore winds, but could make a brief inland push from Titusville south in the late afternoon/evening, shifting winds along parts of the I-95 corridor southeast. A few showers and maybe a lightning storm in the higher moisture near a stalled front to the north are possible in northern Lake and Volusia counties this afternoon/evening, then chances dip south a bit towards the Orlando Metro Friday afternoon/evening (chances 20-30%). Afternoon dispersion values will be Very Good to Excellent due to deep mixing heights and transport winds up to 20 mph. High temperatures in the U80-L90s with similar peak heat heat indices.

Saturday-Sunday...A cold front will bring the next chance for wetting rain across much of the area late Saturday through Sunday. Ahead of the front on Saturday, west-southwest flow increases to 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts (25-30 mph), which will increase control concerns. Lightning strikes late this weekend will be an additional concern for new fire starts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site Apr 29 Apr 30 May 1 May 2 DAB 94 (1968) 92 (1953) 94 (2002) 95 (1953) LEE 94 (2017) 95 (1991) 94 (2017) 95 (1990) SFB 93 (2017) 93 (1971) 95 (2017) 94 (2010) MCO 96 (1906) 95 (1971) 96 (1917) 97 (1906) MLB 91 (1986) 93 (1964) 94 (2002) 95 (2002) VRB 94 (1986) 91 (1975) 96 (1971) 94 (2002) FPR 92 (1923) 97 (1971) 93 (2002) 95 (2002)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 68 87 68 92 / 10 20 0 30 MCO 69 93 69 93 / 0 10 0 20 MLB 68 88 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 67 89 68 94 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 69 91 69 90 / 0 20 0 40 SFB 68 92 69 93 / 0 10 0 30 ORL 70 92 70 92 / 0 10 0 30 FPR 66 89 67 94 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.