textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Boundary interactions and deep moisture will produce the best chance for storms across northern sections into early this evening. Strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall of 2-4" (isolated to 5") possible.

- Rain chances decrease Sunday (30-50%) and then a drier airmass leads to below normal coverage of showers and storms each day next week.

- Hot and humid with peak heat index values of 102-107F and may reach Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Thru Tonight...Storms focused near the coast this morning and early afternoon but should now focus more on the interior and Volusia county through early evening. HREF (ARW and NSSL) is not bullish with development as the HRRR and RRFS are. But given the deep moisture present across the north, sfc heating and eventual boundary interactions (not to mention active storms in NE FL), think additional storm development looks likely with the highest coverage focusing through the I-4 corridor and Lake county. Have not seen much wind with the earlier storms near the coast but cannot rule out a wet downburst of 40-50 mph. Of greater concern are the frequent lightning strikes (including a few "bolts from the blue") seen earlier and should redevelop with additional storms.

A risk of heavy to excessive rainfall will exist due to the very moist airmass in place as 15Z XMR sounding shows PWAT of 2.27". Storm motion is slower and the deep southerly flow is encouraging cell segments to train over the same area at times. Quick rainfall totals of 2-3" with isolated spots to around 5" are possible, leading to temporary flooding issues. Convection will gradually wind down after sunset across the interior, with mostly dry conditions overnight.

Sun...Atlantic ridge axis will begin to shift southward tomorrow, with onshore winds out of the east-southeast forecast. Aloft, a mid-level ridge will begin to nudge its way in from the east and combine with the advection of drier air aloft (PW values falling to 1.8-2.0"). So this should lead to a decrease in showers and storms. However, still expecting scattered coverage (PoPs 30-50%) into the afternoon/evening, especially across the interior. Storm threats of frequent lightning, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will continue with any stronger convection. Hot and humid conditions persist, with highs in the low 90s, and potentially reaching the mid 90s northwest of I-4. Peak heat index values still forecast around 102-107F in the afternoon.

Mon-Sat...Ridge aloft continues to build west and across Florida, remaining in place across the region through all of next week. This will lead to continued hot and humid conditions and also combine with drier air moving in aloft to produce below normal storm coverage each day. Afternoon/evening shower and storm chances drop to 20-30% Monday and Tuesday and 20% or less Wednesday-Friday. Atlantic ridge axis shifting southward and eventually south of central FL into mid/late week will also eventually switch the prevailing flow offshore, which will put an end to any potential for isolated onshore moving showers during the overnight/early morning hours.

With limited relief from afternoon convection, heat impacts will rise into next week, with highs near to above normal in the low to mid 90s leading to a widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Peak heat index values will continue to solidly reach 102-107F, but for portions of the area could see these values nudge toward Heat Advisory criteria of 108-110F, especially Tuesday onward. Will continue to monitor the need for any Heat Advisories next week.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Boating conditions forecast to remain overall favorable this weekend through at least the middle of next week as Atlantic ridge axis north of the area today gradually shifts southward, becoming stationary over south central FL. Winds will remain onshore, generally out of the SE through Sunday, veering to the S/SE early next week then becoming W/SW Wed/Thu as ridge axis shifts south. A 10-12 knot east coast sea breeze will develop each afternoon next week. Seas will continue to subside slowly, from 3-4 feet this afternoon to 2-3 feet Sunday and 1-2 feet by Wed-Thu.

Drier air moving into the region will then lead to mostly dry conditions across the waters next week. However, should still see periods of isolated showers and storms still developing at times (rain chances mostly 20% or less).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VCTS at the interior terminals and DAB, TIX, and MLB through around 01Z. TEMPOs at the interior terminals where coverage is anticipated to be highest through this afternoon, with VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA anticipated between 18-22Z at MCO, ISM, and SFB and between 20-24Z at LEE. ESE winds around 10 knots persist areawide this afternoon, diminishing to around 5 knots overnight as winds become variable in some spots. ESE winds pick back up to around 10 knots after 16Z, with showers and storms possible once again tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 90 76 91 / 20 30 10 20 MCO 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 10 20 MLB 77 89 77 90 / 10 30 0 10 VRB 77 90 77 91 / 20 30 0 10 LEE 76 92 77 92 / 40 40 20 10 SFB 76 92 76 93 / 30 40 10 30 ORL 76 92 76 93 / 30 40 10 20 FPR 76 90 76 90 / 20 30 0 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.