textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 325 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

- A Dense Fog ADVISORY is in effect for Greater Orlando until 9am. Patchy dense fog remains a threat early today and Thursday. Motorists should expect sudden reductions in visibility during the morning rush.

- Dry and increasingly warm weather from now through much of the weekend, with many spots reaching the lower 80s.

- Cooler weather returns by early next week. Rain chances are elusive through at least next Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 325 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Satellite imagery shows a deck of very low stratus and dense fog slowly migrating eastward, on either side of I-4, from Polk, Sumter, Pasco, and Hillsborough Counties. Guidance suggests this will continue to push toward Greater Orlando. Thus, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for this area until 9 am ET.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

The overall synoptic picture has not changed much over the last 24 hours. Florida sits beneath a building mid-level ridge over the Gulf. This places a surface high-pressure axis very close to Florida. Area soundings earlier this evening revealed a warming column and a strong subsidence inversion between H85 and H5 (5-18 kft). Seasonable moisture values remain in place, but this is relegated largely to the boundary layer, with H7 (10 kft) RHs <= 10%. This is an ideal recipe for tranquil, balmy winter weather.

Subtropical and polar jet stream energy in the E Pacific are keeping the setup somewhat progressive. Over the next couple of days, mid-level height rises continue over the Southeast as a deep trough gathers over the Western U.S. The ridge should continue to draw unusually warm air over the peninsula, with H85 temperatures steady between +12 and +14 deg C. The grand ensemble is in strong agreement through at least Saturday, when H5 heights peak above the 90th percentile of January climatology.

The trough forming over the West is still forecast, by a preponderance of the 06/12Z suite, to reach the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley by Saturday night. Discrepancies in the timing of its surface front have decreased. A slower solution is now favored as the trough stays positively-tilted while leaving some energy behind over the Chihuahuan and Sonoran Deserts. As the disturbance makes its closest approach, consequential height falls should hold north of the state while moisture struggles to rise above seasonal norms. Poor surface convergence is also noted as the front moves through Florida, most likely on Sunday or Sunday night. Should this trend stick, cold advection will likely also wait until late Sunday or Sunday night. Weak continental high pressure is then forecast to drape across the Deep South & Carolinas early next week, with winds likely turning NE (onshore) rather quickly.

By the middle of next week, ensembles advertise a +PNA pattern over the West as a strong ridge forms on the Pacific coast. As it redirects the polar jet over the Canadian Rockies, this should open the door to additional energy to dive out of Canada, reinvigorating the trough over the east. One of these clipper-type disturbances has the potential to send a stronger cold front through the state around next Thursday (1/15). A couple of scenarios may play out here, with the picture muddied by a potential ejection of subtropical jet stream energy toward Florida by the middle of next week. The trough over the East looks transient, however. Toward the latter third of the month, medium to long-range guidance suggests that MJO forcing should return. It is projected to climb from the null phase into phases 6 & 7, which are historically warmer for Florida.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Saturday...

Patchy dense fog is our main weather impact for at least the next couple of mornings. We have had high coverage of fog the last couple of days, and guidance suggests that the setup will still support some overnight and morning fog early this morning and Thursday morning. Coverage still looks slightly greater by tomorrow morning.

Otherwise, status quo weather is expected. Any morning stratus or fog should scour out, leaving us with partly to mostly sunny skies and rather warm January weather. High temps climb a degree or so each day through Saturday, with upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest over the interior. After looking at MOS guidance, we have hedged temperatures just a bit above statistical deterministic values. It would not take much over-performance from our forecast highs to threaten a few records on Friday and Saturday, especially at our interior climate stations. Leesburg still has the highest chance (40-50%) to reach its records on Friday (82F) and Saturday (83F).

Winds turn southeasterly late in the work week as high pressure drifts slightly northward.

Sunday - Next Week...

As mentioned before, the timing for our next front is starting come into better agreement. The slower consensus is requiring some adjustment toward warmer temperatures on Sunday. When considering compressional effects and offshore breezes immediately ahead of the frontal passage, it would not be surprising to see another day of low 80s from near Orlando and points southward.

Modified cool, continental air then slides over the peninsula from Monday through the middle of next week, delivering a seasonable temperature drop. The odds of impactful cold temperatures appear low with this front: the probability of morning lows falling below 40 deg F has dropped to 20-30% north of Orlando by Monday and Tuesday.

An extended period of dry weather are expected over the district. This will aggravate already abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions. A cluster (~ 30-40%) of ensemble members, led by the EPS & AI-EPS, brings some subtropical energy overhead in about a week. This would give us our next best chance for wetting rainfall, so long as the longwave trough over the Eastern U.S. does not overwhelm the pattern.

A secondary signal in the ensemble means suggests another cold frontal passage around next Thursday. Statistical guidance already supports medium probabilities of temps falling below 40 degrees over the interior by late next week.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

High pressure remains over South Florida today, but its axis is set to move slightly northward late this work week. Light winds will promote patchy fog in the early mornings through Thursday, especially along the Intracoastal and other inshore waterways. While in firm control of our weather, gentle to moderate breezes prevail with favorable seas through at least Saturday. The next cold front is forecast to arrive late Sunday, with a fresh northerly wind surge in its wake.

Prevailing winds are offshore (westerly) today, up to 12 KT offshore. A weak sea breeze may form along the coast, especially south of Cape Canaveral. From Thursday through Saturday, winds turn easterly and, eventually, southeasterly, remaining less than 15 KT. Seas generally 1-2 FT nearshore, up to 3 FT in the Gulf Stream.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 637 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

An expanding deck of stratus and dense fog across west central Florida has shifted into Lake County and into portions of the I-4 corridor, including KISM/KMCO. IFR/LIFR conditions will occur where this area of dense fog exists, potentially expanding into KSFB/KDAB early this morning. Patchy fog producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible elsewhere across east central Florida. Fog/stratus will then gradually diminish and lift through 14Z. May see some spots, especially north of KMLB hold on to some MVFR cigs through 16Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions forecast into the afternoon with westerly winds picking up slightly to 5-7 knots. A weak sea breeze should be able to form from KMLB southward, switching winds to the E/NE around 6-8 knots near to just after 21Z. Light winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies then forecast tonight. Fog will again redevelop late tonight into early Thursday morning leading to additional reductions in cig/vis, mainly after 06Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 78 57 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 79 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 79 58 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 80 58 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 78 57 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 80 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 79 59 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 80 57 80 61 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ044>046- 053-144.

AM...None.