textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone!

- Another round of showers and storms is forecast this afternoon/evening, with 50-80% coverage expected. Near and especially south of Orlando, there is a 5-10% chance of excessive rain amounts of 3" or greater. This will have the potential to result in localized flooding

- Remaining warm and muggy this afternoon with peak heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees along the Treasure Coast. A cold front will deliver less humid conditions beginning Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows scattered generally northeast morning showers and lightning storms mainly from Cape Canaveral to Lake Okeechobee. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate cloudy skies across east central Florida (mainly north of the Treasure Coast). Analysis charts show a cold front over the southeastern US, as well as northern Florida which extends from the remnants of Hurricane Isiais near the Kentucky/Virginia border. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s north of Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee and in the mid 80s to low 90s to the south. Dew points are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s.

The aforementioned cold front is expected to move southeast across east central Florida tonight before reaching the Treasure Coast into Monday morning. Scattered to numerous showers (50-80% chance) and lightning storms are expected along and ahead of the front this afternoon/evening before rain chances diminish by around 9PM. Guidance shows MLCAPE up to 1,000-3,000 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 20-30kts, PWATs at 2.3-2.5" (at the maximum percentile for the date), a 500mb temperature of -4.6C, and a LLJ at 25kts across northern east central Florida. The aforementioned weather parameters are sufficient for isolated storms capable of occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-2+" in 60 minutes). There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for excessive rainfall with the potential for minor flooding of roadways and low-lying areas. Expect cooler low temperatures behind the front with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s forecast (coolest north of I-4).

Monday-Tuesday... Drier air is expected to filter in behind the cold front into next week with PWAT values below 1" north of the Treasure Coast and between 1.0-2.3" across the Treasure Coast. Modest northerly flow is forecast through Tuesday with mostly dry weather expected as a longwave ridge builds over the eastern US. However, isolated showers with embedded lightning cannot be ruled over over southern St. Lucie and Martin counties on Monday. Expect seasonable high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday... Deterministic models and LREF-clusters are in fairly good agreement on the weather pattern through mid week with the extent of the apex of the mid/upper ridge expected to reach the Ohio Valley. However, deterministic models and LREF- clusters continue to diverge in solutions towards the end of the forecast period Friday into Saturday which is where uncertainty in the forecast increases. Either way, a mid/upper level trough is likely to deepen over the eastern CONUS Friday into Saturday with uncertainty in whether it deepens as far south as the southeastern US. Moisture is expected to increase mid to late week as onshore flow develops. Coverage of showers and lightning storms gradually increases through the forecast period with flow becoming northerly on Saturday. Seasonable to slightly above normal highs are forecast with seasonable to above normal low temperatures.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Currently-Tonight... Mostly favorable boating conditions are expected through tonight. Scattered to widespread generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast as a cold front moves southeast across the waters. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of winds to 34kts or greater. South- southwest winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Seas to 2-3ft with up to 4ft offshore Volusia and Brevard county waters are expected.

Monday-Thursday... Boating conditions are expected to improve through the forecast period. Drier conditions are expected into next week. Isolated to scattered showers with embedded lightning are forecast at times through the forecast period. Expect offshore storm motions through Monday before storm motions become onshore into mid week with the development of onshore flow. The cold front will turn winds northwesterly on Monday at 10-15kts with seas remaining 3 to 4 feet with up to 5 ft over the offshore Volusia and Brevard county waters. Seas generally at 2 to 4 feet are expected through Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 710 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A weak front has sagged into the central FL peninsula late today. Winds are veering SW/W/WNW as it approaches/passes and will further become WNW/NW areawide this evening/overnight. Speeds 6-12 kts becoming around 5 kts or less this evening/overnight. Showers and lightning storms are exiting the Treasure Coast and can't rule out an ISOLD shower this evening, esp southern terminals. Sky conditions will improve through the evening and overnight as drier air filters southward into Monday. NW/N winds 6-12 kts on Monday with VFR conds. Winds may veer a bit more to NNE along the coast in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 66 85 66 84 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 69 86 67 87 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 71 85 69 85 / 30 0 0 0 VRB 72 86 67 86 / 30 10 0 0 LEE 66 85 66 87 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 67 86 67 86 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 68 86 68 86 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 72 85 66 86 / 40 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.