textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions forecast for the next several days. A Wind Advisory exists along the coasts of Volusia, Brevard and Indian River counties through this evening.

- Fresh to strong winds will produce dangerous boating conditions, high surf, life-threatening rip currents, and moderate beach erosion through at least the first half of the coming week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water.

- Gusty isolated to scattered onshore moving showers will continue through Monday, and then turning mostly dry through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Today-Monday...Cold front stalls south of the area today and lingers across the Straits of Florida through early this week, as strong area of high pressure continues across the eastern U.S. and low off the Mid-Atlantic coast strengthens. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the area, with breezy to windy conditions forecast across the region. Across the interior, northeast winds will increase to 15-20 mph into late morning and through this afternoon, and at the coast will remain around 15-25 mph. Gusts up to 30-35 mph are forecast for much of the area, but along the coast of Volusia, Brevard and Indian River counties gusts around 35-40 mph are expected. The Wind Advisory has therefore been extended southward to include these areas and continues through this evening. Not out of the question to see occasional gusts above 35 mph from gradient winds or gusty passing showers across the rest of the region today, but does not look frequent enough for a Wind Advisory. Into Monday, winds will still remain breezy (potentially windy along the coast), with northeast winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 25-35 mph.

This fresh to strong northeast flow will produce a number of beach and marine hazards, including rough surf, large breaking waves, and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is highly discouraged! Long period onshore swells will also likely contribute to moderate beach erosion through multiple high tide cycles. A High Risk for rip currents exists for area beaches and will likely continue through much of this week, with a High Surf Advisory remaining in effect through early this week as seas continue to build.

Drier, cooler air will continue to build southward into the region today. However, stronger NE low level winds will continue to squeeze what little moisture there is out there to generate rounds of isolated to scattered onshore moving showers today through Monday, which may produce gusts up to 40-45 mph. However, no storms are expected as instability remains very low. Highs will remain below normal in the mid to upper 70s near to north of Orlando and in the low 80s south. Overnight lows will be in the 60s tonight, except along the coast where onshore breeze will maintain min temps in the 70s. Then into Monday night, may see low drop as low as the upper 50s northwest of I-4.

Tuesday-Saturday...Weather pattern remains fairly unchanged into the middle of this week. A relatively tight pressure gradient continues between strong ridge across the eastern U.S., stalled front to the south and strong area of low pressure lingering off the eastern seaboard. However, models do indicate low level winds should relax some, but still produce at least breezy N/NE winds up to 15-20 mph each day through much of this week. Models indicate mostly dry conditions through this time, but can't completely rule out some additional isolated light showers pushing onshore at times. Strong low off the northeast U.S. will finally get pushed northeast ahead of another advancing mid/upper level trough into late week. The strong ridge remains cemented across the eastern United States, as weak low/disturbance may take form across the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between these two features may once again tighten into the weekend, with onshore winds gradually strengthening once again, producing breezy to windy conditions.

Temperatures are forecast to remain below normal through the period, with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and overnight lows mostly in the 60s, except upper 50s NW of I-4.

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Today-Thursday...A tight pressure gradient will continue across the area for several days between strong high across the eastern U.S., stalled front south of the area, and developing strong area of low pressure that will linger off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. coast. This will maintain a strong NE breeze through at least early this week, with occasional to frequent gusts to gale force. A Gale Warning continues north of Sebastian Inlet through tonight and then falls back to just the Volusia waters for Monday as gradient is forecast to weaken a little. Still, Small Craft Advisories will continue for areas without a Gale Warning, as N/NE winds remain up to 15-25 knots continuing hazardous boating conditions through much of this week. Seas will continue to build through today into Monday, peaking up to 10-14 feet and then are forecast to slowly decrease (but still remaining hazardous) through midweek, decreasing to 7-9 feet Wednesday into Thursday.

Drier air has worked its way into the region behind the front, but stronger low level onshore flow will maintain rounds of gusty isolated to scattered showers moving southwest across the waters and onshore today and tomorrow. Mostly dry conditions then look to persist Tuesday into Thursday, but still can't rule out a few showers continuing.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 619 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Breezy and gusty conditions continue today with northeast winds at 12-20 KT with gusts up to 30 KT possible through this evening. Isolated to scattered onshore-moving showers will be possible this afternoon. Have added VCSH along the coast where the highest potential for showers to occur, from DAB to VRB, starting at 17Z. Winds will slacken slightly after 00Z Monday, with winds 10-15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible (highest winds along the coast). NE winds will remain elevated on Monday, with winds at MCO Monday morning remaining around 15KT with gusts to around 25 KT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 69 77 64 / 30 30 10 0 MCO 79 69 80 62 / 20 20 10 0 MLB 81 72 81 69 / 30 30 30 10 VRB 82 71 83 68 / 30 30 30 10 LEE 76 65 78 59 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 77 68 79 61 / 20 30 10 0 ORL 78 69 79 62 / 20 20 10 0 FPR 82 71 83 68 / 20 30 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-347-447- 647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-570.

Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555-575.