textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms forecast across the East Central Florida interior this afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong to marginally sever. Storms could produce frequent lightning strikes, strong to locally damaging winds, hail, and torrential downpours.

- Forecast continues to trend towards near to slightly above normal rain chances through the rest of the week. Forecast confidence decreases for early next week, but storms and above normal heat will continue.

- Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the forecast period, and Extreme impacts are possible early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level troughing continues across the eastern US as a ridge over the southwest US remains in place. Shortwave energy will traverse across the southern US, amplifying the trough a bit, and allowing the trough to dip slightly southward across northern Florida. At the surface, a ridge axis will remain across south Florida through the day, slowly shifting to the east. A weak front will drop into northern Florida today, with drier air staying confined near the frontal boundary (across northern Florida). Locally, moisture will be near normal, with PW values around 1.7- 1.8". Weak offshore (WSW-SW) flow across the Florida peninsula will enhance the west coast sea breeze and slow the east coast sea breeze. This will result in the sea breeze collision occurring across the interior. There is a medium (40-60 percent) chance of showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Showers and storms will initiate along the sea breeze this afternoon with the highest coverage occurring along the sea breeze collision across the interior. Any lingering showers and storms will push back towards the coast into the evening before dissipating or eventually pushing offshore.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of east central Florida in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms this afternoon. Forecast soundings shows a favorable environment for strong to marginally severe storms, with ample instability (MUCAPE 2,000-3,000 J/kg), sufficient shear (0-6km shear around 20 KT), steep low-level lapse rates (7-9 C/km), and plenty of downdraft potential (DCAPE 1000-1400 J/kg). Guidance does shows slight warming aloft however, as the trough departs and weakens ( -7C at 500mb). The main storm hazards will continue to be strong to damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph (5-14 % chance winds up to 60 mph), hail up to 1 inch (less than 5 % chance that hail will reach 1 inch), frequent to excessive lightning, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out (less than 2 percent chance of a tornado), mainly along boundary collisions. Better steering flow reduces the risk of flooding some, but multiple boundary collisions could cause slow/erratic storm motion, and locally high rainfall amounts of 2-3" leading to minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

Hot and humid conditions continue today, albeit slightly less hot than yesterday. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s, under partly sunny skies. These temperatures combined with high humidity, will produce peak heat indices of 100-105 degrees, as well as widespread Moderate HeatRisk impacts with patches of Major in the urban interior and parts of the southern Coastal corridor. Warm and muggy conditions continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday-Friday... An upper level trough over the eastern US will weaken, allowing high pressure to shift over the Florida peninsula from the western Atlantic. At the surface, the weak front across north Florida will lift northward Thursday, allowing the surface ridge axis across the Atlantic to shift over Central Florida. Locally, surface flow will generally remain offshore, becoming light and southerly at times by Friday. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon. While drier air will filter across northern Florida along the front, near normal PW values (1.7-1.9") are forecast locally through the period. There is a low to medium (20-60 percent) chance of rain each afternoon and evening. Highest rain chances gradually march west over the interior each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze is able to push farther inland as the offshore flow weakens. A warming trend will begin, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid 90s along the coast and upper 90s across the interior. These temperatures combined with high humidity will produce peak afternoon heat indices of 102-107 degrees. This will be just shy of Heat Advisory. Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are forecast each day.

Saturday-Tuesday... Upper level high pressure across the central- eastern US, including the Florida peninsula, will dominate through early next week. At the surface the weak ridge axis from the Atlantic high over Central Florida drops back south through the weekend in response to a developing low pressure system to the north. There remains some uncertainty with how the front associated with this low will evolve. Some model solutions push it down towards Northeast to East Central Florida as a weak backdoor front early next week, then attempting to develop disturbances on the stalled boundary. Locally, the pressure gradient will remain loose, which will result in light and variable flow. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon and evening, turning the flow onshore. This will favor collisions over the spine of the peninsula. Moisture across east central Florida is generally near normal through the period, resulting in near to slightly above normal rain chances most days. However, some drier air aloft on Sunday has resulted in below normal rain chances. Highest rain and storm chances will occur along the sea breeze collision in the afternoon and into the evening over the interior, pushing farther west if flow becomes more easterly. Hot and humid conditions continue with current forecast calls for above normal heat with afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, pushing towards the upper 90s inland through Monday. This will result in peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits. However, there remains enough variation in forecast temperatures and moisture that confidence in heat impacts are still low, but trends remain very close to Heat Advisory criteria and will need to be closely monitored.

MARINE

Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today-Sunday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Generally favorable boating conditions outside of offshore moving lightning storms. A weak front dropping into north Florida today keeps the ridge axis of the Atlantic high suppressed over South Florida through Thursday. Offshore (WSW-SW) flow will continue through Thursday. The front then departs allowing the ridge axis to lift north into Central Florida Friday and Saturday, shifting light flow more southerly at times but generally remaining offshore. Another low pressure system developing on the residual front over the Deep South and southeast seaboard shunts the ridge axis south again, and the weak front associated with the low may drop south towards or into the local Atlantic waters early next week. Winds back onshore (E-SE) from the afternoons into the early overnights each day as the sea breeze develops. Wind speeds generally 5-15 KT, occasionally ticking over 15 KT offshore in the early overnight hours. Seas 1-2 ft. Highest chances for offshore moving showers and lightning storms today and Thursday, then chances decrease Friday going into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR is forecast outside of storms with high pressure (~1021mb) over the GOM. W winds are expected to back ESE in the aftn/eve before becoming light & variable overnight. TAFs begin with VCTS and PROB30/TEMPO groups for TSRA through 00Z/01Z w/ the potential for a few strong to severe storms. Dry conditions are expected overnight before TSRA returns THU aftn/eve, mainly after 18Z/19Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 93 75 93 / 40 40 30 30 MCO 76 95 76 95 / 40 50 30 40 MLB 76 91 77 91 / 20 40 30 30 VRB 75 92 77 92 / 20 40 20 30 LEE 76 95 77 95 / 40 50 20 40 SFB 76 95 76 96 / 40 50 30 40 ORL 76 94 77 95 / 40 50 30 40 FPR 75 92 76 91 / 20 40 20 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.