textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Hot and muggy conditions will build with peak heat indices climbing to 102-107 this holiday weekend resulting in widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk.

- Increased moisture, strong daytime heating and boundary collisions will result in scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms into the Fourth of July weekend.

- At least a Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents at area beaches through the Fourth of July weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Through tonight...Slug of dry air is traversing north FL from east to west. This is evident by the sparser cu development as well as dewpoints dropping into the mid and upper 60s Orlando north. Some bubbling up of cu east of Orlando so a few showers, possibly a storm may affect Orange county through sunset. Otherwise focus for showers and storms will be southern interior, diminishing this evening.

Fri-Sun...Generally light surface winds remain generally out of the East Fri then veer more southerly as Atlc ridge builds west over FL peninsula. Mid-level temps relatively warm -4.5C to -5.0C to begin the period will gradually cool to -6.0C to -7.0C Sat/Sun. A few mid- level impulses will aid convection over the weekend. Higher moisture values across south-central FL on Fri surge north across central FL Sat/Sun. Light southerly steering flow will develop but diurnal boundary collisions should make cell movement erratic at times as the ECSB will develop each afternoon and march well inland. SCT-NMRS (30-60%) showers and storms forecast Fri aftn/evening; highest south of Orlando where moisture is deepest. Continue to advertise NMRS (capped at 70%) convective chances Sat/Sun, though believe some of these (NBM) numbers may be too high. Activity will diminish thru the evening and hopefully in time not to hamper holiday weekend celebrations. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a key concern in addition to lightning strikes, and gusty winds.

Typical warm & humid summertime conditions continue with highs in the U80s to L90s, though could see some M90s esp across the I-4 corridor. Peak heat indices anywhere from 100-107F, staying for the moment just below Heat Advisory criteria, but yet Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Conditions at night remain warm and muggy. If you are planning to spend time outdoors, take plenty of breaks in the shade or A/C and stay well-hydrated to avoid heat- related fatigue/illness. Never leave pets or children in vehicles unattended!

Mon-Wed...Weak Atlc ridging extends across the central FL peninsula during this time. Generally SW flow at night/morning periods, "backing" onshore each afternoon with sea breeze formation and late day boundary collisions across the interior. Ample moisture will continue across the region for SCT to locally NMRS diurnal convection each day/evening. Max temps continue above normal in the L-M90s with peak heat indices picking back up to 100-107F each afternoon ahead of sea breezes and precip. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk expected. Lows remain consistent in the 70s with conditions humid.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Generally favorable winds and seas for boating this weekend and into early next week. The primary concern will be scattered lightning storms over inland lakes and possibly hugging along the east coast this weekend as wind flow veers more southerly. Winds remain onshore, mainly out of the east Friday below 15 knots then turning south to southwest this weekend with a SE sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft Friday becoming 1-2 ft this weekend and early next week. Winds and seas locally higher in vicinity of storms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Isolated SHRA/TSRA remains outside of the terminals so have removed VC wording for the remainder of today. Light E winds 5-10 kt, variable at times overnight, and cannot rule out -SHRA along the coast (low confidence). ECSB will help TSRA/SHRA develop MLB- SUA after 15-17z, moving toward inland terminals by 19-21z. Included VC wording for now but TEMPOs may be needed in future updates. Otherwise, VFR for much of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 76 90 76 91 / 0 20 10 70 MCO 75 94 76 93 / 10 60 20 70 MLB 78 90 78 91 / 10 40 20 70 VRB 77 91 76 91 / 10 60 10 70 LEE 76 94 77 93 / 10 40 30 70 SFB 75 94 77 94 / 10 50 20 70 ORL 76 93 77 93 / 10 50 20 70 FPR 76 90 75 91 / 10 60 20 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.