textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Mostly dry conditions will persist through the work week, with just isolated to scattered showers north of Orlando Thursday afternoon.

- Hot temperatures mid-week into the first half of the weekend, especially over the interior.

- A long period swell building across the local Atlantic waters will promote High Risk of life-threatening rip currents this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Today-Tonight...An upper level shortwave moves off of the Southeast US coast today, as high pressure builds southward across the peninsula. A few showers are present on KJAX radar drifting into the Volusia County coast, nearer to the shortwave, prior to sunrise this morning. Have introduced PoPs ~20% for this area. However, expect to see showers diminish as the sun begins to rise. CAMs are on board with generally dry conditions today, so have maintained no mentionable PoPs. Although, can't rule out a light shower or two drifting onshore this morning, embedded within a layer of moisture between 900-850mb. Little vertical development is forecast, with very dry air present above 850mb. Onshore flow prevails today, increasing to around 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze this afternoon. Easterly winds will help to keep coastal areas in the lower 80s, but interior locations are expected to see highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Light winds tonight could lead to some patchy fog west of I-95 late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Dry conditions continue to prevail, with overnight lows in the lower to mid-60s.

Wednesday...Surface high pressure sags southward and flattens over the Straits of Florida, as a trough digs through the Northeast US. Dry conditions prevail, despite a slight uptick in available moisture (PWATs 1.1-1.3"). Light southwesterly winds develop along the northern periphery of the ridge, making for a very warm day across east central Florida. Afternoon highs in the lower 90s will flirt with a few records over the interior (see the Climate section for more details). At the coast, a weak afternoon sea breeze will help to keep temperatures a bit more modest, in the mid to upper 80s. Despite the above normal daytime temperatures, overnight lows remain just a few degrees above normal in the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday-Monday...The aforementioned ridge over the Straits will help to fend off a weak cold front moving into north Florida. As the front stalls into Thursday afternoon, rain chances increase generally north of Orlando, becoming 20-30%. A few storms can't be ruled out, though instability overall is forecast to be low, with low CAPE and warmer (-8C) temperatures aloft. The front will linger across north Florida Friday, with quasi-zonal flow in the mid and upper levels. Mostly dry conditions return, with just a few showers (PoPs ~20%) forecast for Friday afternoon across far northern Lake and Volusia Counties. Highs will remain well above normal to near record in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

This weekend, the stalled boundary lifts northward into the Southeast, as a stronger trough moves through the eastern US. At the surface, the earlier ridge moves seaward, away from the Florida peninsula. With no ridge to the south, the front associated with the trough is forecast to move through central Florida this weekend and into early next week. Shower and storm chances begin to increase Saturday afternoon (20-40%) across northern portions of the forecast area, before increasing to 70-80% area-wide on Sunday. Will need to monitor the threat for a few strong storms Sunday, as temperatures cool aloft. However, models suggest the support along the front may outrun the associated precipitation. Regardless, scattered showers and storms are forecast to linger into early next week across southern portions of the area, as the front slows and stalls over the Straits. A cooldown to nearer to normal highs follows the front, but not before temperatures soar into the lower to mid-90s on Saturday. Be sure to stay hydrated for any weekend events.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Hazardous boating conditions this morning behind a cold front will improve into tonight, as high pressure builds over the area. Until then, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect offshore. Seas up to 5-7 ft in the Gulf Stream this morning will diminish to 4-6 ft this afternoon and evening. Some lingering 5 ft seas offshore continue to diminish through mid week. Otherwise, seas generally 3-4 ft through the end of the work week. Easterly winds today veer offshore through Friday, though they will become E/SE each afternoon at 10-15 kts along the coast as the sea breeze develops. Mostly dry, with just a few to scattered showers and storms over the northern Volusia County waters Thursday, as a front drops into northern Florida.

Another cold front will approach the area this weekend. Increasing S/SW winds and coverage of showers and storms is forecast. While seas are expected to build slightly, the expected wind direction is not quite favorable for hazardous seas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR CIGs are observed moving onshore the Volusia coast and in vicinity of LEE/ISM early this morning. Otherwise, VFR dominantly prevails. North-northeast winds have been slow to diminish, particularly along the coast where winds 6-10 kts generally persist. East-northeast winds pick up 8-12 kts across the interior and 10-15 kts along the coast this afternoon. Will have to monitor the potential for patchy fog across portions of the interior Wednesday morning, but any chances mostly exist beyond the current 06Z TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast through Saturday. High pressure develops over the local area through Wednesday, with rain chances remaining below 15%. Easterly winds increase to 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze this afternoon. Onshore flow will help keep min RH in coastal areas above 50% and highs in the lower 80s. However, interior locations are forecast to see min RH fall to 40-50%, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. As high pressure settles into the area Wednesday, winds become lighter (5-10 mph) and generally southwesterly, with the exception of the east coast sea breeze across coastal counties. However, drier air and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s area-wide will lead to min RH between 35-45% for all but the immediate coast. Very good dispersion today becomes very good to excellent on Wednesday.

Generally dry conditions continue through Friday, despite a front stalling across north Florida. While min RH is forecast to remain just above critical thresholds and winds remain below 15 mph through the work week, hot temperatures and drought conditions will make for very sensitive fire weather conditions. Saturday, breezy southwesterly winds ahead of a front will increase concerns, as will any lightning strikes from convection Thursday and Saturday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site Apr 29 Apr 30 May 1 May 2 DAB 94 (1968) 92 (1953) 94 (2002) 95 (1953) LEE 94 (2017) 95 (1991) 94 (2017) 95 (1990) SFB 93 (2017) 93 (1971) 95 (2017) 94 (2010) MCO 96 (1906) 95 (1971) 96 (1917) 97 (1906) MLB 91 (1986) 93 (1964) 94 (2002) 95 (2002) VRB 94 (1986) 91 (1975) 96 (1971) 94 (2002) FPR 92 (1923) 97 (1971) 93 (2002) 95 (2002)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 82 65 89 66 / 10 0 10 0 MCO 86 66 92 68 / 10 0 10 0 MLB 83 69 86 68 / 10 10 0 0 VRB 83 67 87 67 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 88 66 91 68 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 86 65 92 67 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 87 66 92 69 / 10 0 10 0 FPR 83 66 87 66 / 0 10 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572- 575.