textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through this week. The main storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise, the potential exists for frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts up to 50 mph.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches again today. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows general onshore moving scattered showers and lightning storms across east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations show partly to mostly cloudy skies over east central Florida. Local temperatures are currently in the mid 80s to low 90s with dew points in the mid 70s to around 80F degrees. The 10Z XMR sounding shows plenty of moisture in place with a PWAT of 2.20", in addition to MidRH at 85% and LowRH at 83%. However, instability and bulk shear are relatively weak. Analysis charts show a stationary boundary across central Florida to the south of Cape Canaveral.

Scattered to numerous showers (~40-70% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage into this evening with collisions between onshore flow, in addition to the west coast sea breeze over the western interior, as well as outflow from previous storms. Rain chances are forecast to gradually diminish around 9PM. However, isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast near the coast through the early morning on Wednesday. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3" in 60 minutes). For this reason a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists for much of east central Florida today mainly along and south of the Orlando metro. Above normal lows (~1F-3F+) in the low to upper 70s are expected.

Wednesday-Thursday... An active week of weather is expected with onshore flow in place coupled with a weak stationary boundary over east central Florida or to the north through Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers/lightning storms are forecast to develop each afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of the shower and lightning storm activity is expected between 12pm-8pm. East- southeast winds at 5-10mph are forecast each afternoon and evening. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3" in 60 minutes). Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast. A Moderate HeatRisk with small pockets of Major HeatRisk across northern east central Florida is forecast each day.

Friday-Monday... A return to a more typical sea breeze pattern is expected with the Bermuda high forecast to build west over the southwest Atlantic through the forecast period. Numerous to widespread showers (~70-90% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop each afternoon/evening as collisions occur between sea breezes, as well as outflow from previous storms. Rain shower and storm chances reduce to 50-80% on Sunday and 50-70% Monday. Near to above normal high and low temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and low to upper 70s are forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Currently-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers/lightning storms with onshore flow in place. Scattered generally onshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, as well as on Wednesday. The potential exists for a strong storm capable of wind gusts greater than or equal to 34kts. Expect south-southeast winds at 6-12kts. Seas to 1-3ft nearshore and 4ft offshore (up to 5ft over the offshore Volusia county waters) are forecast.

Thursday-Saturday.... Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue outside of showers/lightning storms. East-southeast winds at 5-10kts are forecast to veer south-southwest each night. Seas to 1-3ft nearshore with up to 4ft over the southern Brevard to Treasure Coast waters. Scattered generally onshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast each afternoon and evening. The potential exists for a strong storm capable of wind gusts greater than or equal to 34kts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Scattered showers and storms are currently pushing onshore and into the interior this afternoon. Onshore winds 5-10 KT will increase to around 10 KT this afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Increasing coverage of showers and storms across the interior this afternoon. Have changed the PROB30 for MCO and ISM to a TEMPO for this afternoon. Have maintained the PROB30 for all other sites, with LEE not having any PROB30 or TEMPOs at this time. Will monitor closely and amend as necessary. VCTS has the potential to last through 02Z across the interior, with VCSH along the coast through 03Z. Onshore winds will become light and variable once again overnight, before becoming onshore and increasing to 5-10 KT once again by 14/15Z. Have added VCTS for coastal sites starting at 15 Wednesday, and VCSH across the interior starting at 16Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 89 76 90 / 30 40 20 50 MCO 75 92 76 92 / 30 60 20 70 MLB 77 90 78 91 / 30 40 20 40 VRB 75 89 76 89 / 30 40 20 40 LEE 76 91 76 91 / 20 60 30 70 SFB 75 91 76 92 / 20 60 20 70 ORL 76 91 76 92 / 30 60 20 70 FPR 75 89 76 89 / 30 50 20 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.