textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will persist across east central Florida today.

- A High risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Entering the surf is not advised!

- Moisture increases across the Florida peninsula from Tuesday onward, resulting in a return of rain and storm chances locally. A slight uptick in temperatures and a return of humidity is also forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Today-Tonight... The upper level cut-off low and associated nor'easter will move northward along the NE coastline through today. At the surface, broad high pressure will continue to build over the Florida peninsula as high pressure across the western Atlantic slowly builds westward towards the Caribbean. Locally, drier air will filter across the area, with forecast PW values falling to 1.0- 1.2" areawide. This will result in little to no rain and storm chances today, with the highest rain chances (PoP 20 percent) occurring across the southern Treasure Coast. The pressure gradient remains slack over the local area, with light and variable winds today turning onshore (east to southeast) in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Temperatures will be seasonable today, however they will begin to increase from the past couple days. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, and maybe even reach 90 degrees in some spots in the interior. Peak heat indices will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, possibly reaching 70 degrees along the coast.

At the beaches, hazards conditions linger. A High risk of dangerous life-threatening rip currents continues at all area beaches. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Tuesday-Wednesday... Upper level trough over the eastern seaboard early next week will push offshore by midweek. A surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly shift northward through the period, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally, onshore (east to southeast) winds will remain in place, with speeds generally 5-10 mph. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to around 10 mph behind the sea breeze. Moisture will begin to increase through period, with forecast PW values of 1.3-1.6" on Tuesday afternoon becoming to 1.6-1.8" Wednesday afternoon. This will support increasing rain and storm chances each day, becoming above normal by mid week. Highest rain chances will occur across the south, generally south of Orlando metro, each day.

Temperatures will begin a warming trend, with seasonable to slightly above normal conditions forecast. Afternoon highs will generally reach mid to upper 80s, with some locations reaching low 90s across the interior. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Thursday-Sunday... Upper cut-off low over the Great Plains on Thursday will shift northward, becoming absorbed into the trough over the Midwest by the weekend. An upper high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift westward, towards the Florida peninsula, through late week, with the center moving over Florida by the weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will steadily shift north and westward, moving towards the Carolina coast. Locally, east to southeast winds will dominate, becoming enhanced each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Moisture increases over the area through the period, with forecast PW values ranging from 2.0-2.4". This will support near to above normal rain chances each day, with scattered to numerous showers and storms areawide by the weekend. Slight warming trend continues through the period, with seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures forecast each day, as afternoon highs increasing about a degree in some locations each day. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Today-Friday... Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast. West to southwest winds 5-10 KT this morning will veer onshore (east to southeast) and increase to 10-15 KT this afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Light and variable winds on Tuesday morning will once again become southeasterly and increase to around 10 KT in the afternoon with the sea breeze. Southeasterly winds will then become dominate Wednesday onward, with speeds around 10 KT. Seas 3-5 ft today will subside 2-3ft on Tuesday, and 2ft on Wednesday. Seas will build to 2-3 ft Thursday and 3-4ft on Friday. Mostly dry conditions today, with increasing coverage of showers and lightning storms forecast across all local waters starting Tuesday, becoming scattered to numerous Wednesday through at least late week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Winds light/variable thru 14-15z, increasing 5-8 kt from the SW, then veering onshore as the ECSB moves inland after 17-19z (except at LEE). Speeds could reach 10-12 kt thru 01z. VFR conds.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is actively cresting due to an ongoing period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels are forecast to gradually subside through Minor Flood Stage this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 70 88 72 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 88 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 87 72 87 74 / 0 0 20 30 VRB 87 71 88 72 / 0 0 30 30 LEE 88 70 89 72 / 10 0 20 0 SFB 88 70 89 72 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 88 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 87 70 88 71 / 0 0 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.