textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Breezy east to southeast flow will produce rough surf and choppy seas. There will be a High risk of rip currents at all area beaches today and will likely continue through this week.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue to develop and push onshore from the Atlantic and progress inland each afternoon.

- Temperatures are forecast to trend warmer with afternoon highs reaching 85F-87F over the interior mid to late week. Record highs are not forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure aloft will remain across Florida and the Gulf waters through the day. Surface high pressure centered along the NE US will continue to build across the Deep south and the Florida peninsula while the center slowly shifts eastward into the Atlantic waters. Locally, north to northeast winds will persist through the day, with speeds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible at times, especially as the sea breeze forms and pushes inland in the afternoon and enhances the onshore flow. Low level moisture will increase through the day, with forecast PW values of 0.9-1.1". This will support a low to medium (20-30%) chance of onshore moving showers today, with some pushing inland. Highest coverage will be from Cape Canaveral to Ft. Pierce and as far inland as Holopaw. Lightning storms are not forecast at this time (probability less than 15%). While most areas will remain dry tonight, isolated onshore moving showers will be possible from Cape Canaveral southward through the overnight hours .

The warming trend continues with seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures forecast today under partly sunny skies. Afternoon highs range from mid to upper 70s along the coast, and upper 70s to low 80s across the interior. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s under partly cloudy skies. Due to the winds remaining elevated over the Atlantic waters as well as increasing seas and periods, there is a High risk of rip currents at all area beaches today. Entering the surf is not advised.

Wednesday-Monday...Upper level high pressure across the Gulf and over the Florida peninsula on Wednesday will continue to shift eastward into the SW Atlantic by the weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will slowly shift southward towards Bermuda by the weekend, with the axis remaining over the eastern US and the Florida peninsula through the period. Locally, this will result in onshore (east to southeast) flow persisting through next weekend and into early next week. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon. Warm moist air will remain in place through the extended, with forecast PW values ranging from 1.1-1.4" through the period. This coupled with persistent onshore flow will support a low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers each day that will push onshore and inland. There is a low (20%) chance for lightning storm development each afternoon, though confidence remains low. Main storm hazards will be occasional lightning strikes and gusty winds. Any lingering showers or storms will diminish into the overnight hours, with additional development possible across the waters each night.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend, with the warmest temperatures occurring across the interior each day as onshore flow and the east coast sea breeze help keep the coast slightly cooler. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s on Wednesday and warming to low to mid 80s by late week. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s through the extended period, which is slightly above normal. There will be a High risk of rip currents each day due to increasing onshore flow and period. Entering the surf is not advised.

MARINE

Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Today-Saturday... Poor marine and boating conditions are forecast through the weekend as the pressure gradient remains slightly tightened over the areas. Easterly winds today will turn east to southeast Thursday with speeds of 10-15 knots nearshore and 15-20 knots offshore through Saturday. Small craft should exercise caution in all the offshore waters today, and will likely be needed through the weekend. Seas will build to 5-6ft offshore and 4-5ft across the nearshore waters today and will remain through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers with a few lightning storms are forecast each day across the Atlantic waters.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR forecast with occasional MVFR CIGs at the coast. -SHRA push onshore thru the day, especially from MLB to SUA, but low confidence in coverage/timing lends to VCSH for now. E/NE winds increase thru the day, gusting 15-20 kt at times.

Wind speeds decrease after 00z Wed. BR/FG is possible overnight at northern sites (esp. LEE/DAB) but will have to monitor development as far south as SFB/MCO/ISM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 77 61 79 63 / 20 10 20 10 MCO 80 65 83 66 / 20 10 30 0 MLB 78 65 79 66 / 30 20 20 10 VRB 79 65 81 66 / 30 20 20 10 LEE 82 63 84 64 / 10 0 20 0 SFB 80 63 83 64 / 20 10 20 0 ORL 80 64 83 66 / 20 10 30 0 FPR 79 64 81 65 / 30 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.