textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Warm and mainly dry today, isolated showers and lightning storms are possible along the Treasure Coast this afternoon/evening

- Cold front arrives tonight, bringing gusty northeast winds into Monday and gradually cooler air; short-lived rain chances increase Monday, mainly south of Cape Canaveral

- Beach and boating conditions to deteriorate quickly Sunday night and remain poor to hazardous through at least the middle of the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Today-Monday...A broad upper trough will advance from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today toward the U.S. East Coast on Monday. Locally, a weak surface trough is forecast today ahead of an approaching cold front. In combination with PW reaching 1.4-1.5"+ and a delayed east coast sea breeze, there is a low chance (20-30%) of showers and an isolated lightning storm along the Treasure Coast this afternoon/evening. CAM guidance builds SBCAPE to 1,500+ J/kg here, with MLCAPE to 750-1,000 J/kg. In addition, a dry 725-475mb layer could support DCAPE to 1,000+ J/kg. Less supportive lapse rates exist, though, so confidence in storm development and maintenance is low. This is something to watch as the east coast breeze forms this afternoon, as a conditional threat for gusty winds and lightning strikes could unfold.

Otherwise, mostly dry conditions will prevail for much of the area as temperatures climb into the mid/upper 80s. A few locations will approach 90 degrees but additional mid-high level clouds should put the lid on temps going above the 90-degrees mark. This is in keeping with what we have seen with high temperatures the last couple of days, ending up a couple to a few degrees below NBM (closer to NBM25). Winds will remain westerly inland, turning onshore at the coast as the east coast breeze tries to form.

A moderate risk for rip currents exists today at the beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

Tonight, the cold front approaches the northern portion of the area. Winds veer north-northeasterly along and behind the front as the pressure gradient starts to tighten. The most persistent gusts are forecast closer to the coast but will spread inland Monday morning onward, with peak values of 20-25 mph and occasional gusts to 30+ mph. Moisture builds along the coast and across the southern third of the area tonight into Monday. This will support at least a low chance for coastal showers overnight into Monday morning. An increase in scattered showers and even a storm is possible Monday afternoon along the Treasure Coast. NBM ProbThunder values generally stay 30% or less, which is a bit generous considering the lack of instability forecast.

Of greater certainty, beach conditions will become hazardous Sunday night and continue that way through at least Monday. Rough surf and an increased rip current risk is forecast, so entering the water will be highly discouraged. Regarding temperatures, forecast highs drop into the 70s to around 80 degrees to start the week. This is at least 3-4 degrees below normal for mid April. Overnight lows are expected to dip into the mid/upper 50s across the interior Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday-Saturday...Guidance indicates a push of drier air arriving Tuesday, with some 1-1.1" PW oscillating around a broad area of high pressure mid to late week. Greater moisture recovery will have to wait until Saturday or Sunday at least, which means a large part of this extended forecast stays dry. Weak H5 height falls and shallow moisture embedded in onshore flow could potentially support marine showers approaching the coast beyond Wed/Thu, but measurable rain will be hard to come by. Thus, the official forecast keeps mentionable chances absent.

Breezy to gusty conditions are forecast again on Tuesday, especially along the southern Space and Treasure Coasts. Wind speeds decrease a bit Wednesday onward as the pressure gradient unwinds. Still, we maintain some component of onshore flow through late week before winds turn a bit more SSE on Saturday. The cooler high temps last us through Wednesday before a warming trend resumes from Thursday onward. At the beaches, rough surf and a high risk of rip currents continues on Tuesday, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is likely to persist through at least Wednesday or Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Boating conditions remain favorable today, outside of isolated showers and storms south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas generally 2-3 ft with a light offshore wind this morning veering offshore as the east coast breeze develops this afternoon. A conditional risk for lightning storms capable of gusty winds exists along the Treasure Coast this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, rain chances slowly increase overnight into Monday along and behind a cold front.

This cold front will bring gusty northeast winds (20-25 kt) and building seas late Sunday night into Monday, unfolding from north to south. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued, starting just before midnight Monday for the Volusia waters (0-60nm). The advisory expands south to include the Brevard (Space Coast) waters (0-60nm) and then the remaining Treasure Coast legs Monday morning. Hazardous conditions are forecast to linger through at least Tuesday from Cape Canaveral southward. Peak wave heights reach 10 ft in the Gulf Stream Monday and Monday night before gradually decreasing north to south on Tuesday.

Conditions improve mid to late week as high pressure builds overhead. An isolated shower Wed/Thu onward cannot be ruled out, but probabilities remain too low to include a mention of precipitation at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions persist at all local terminals. Light and variable winds this morning pick up after 14Z out of the west around 10 knots. At the coastal terminals, winds will become more onshore after 18Z as the east coast sea breeze and moves inland. Showers will be possible from VRB southward after 18Z and isolated storms also cannot be ruled out, but confidence remains low at this time. Tonight, a cold front approaches the Florida peninsula, moving southward through the overnight hours. Winds will shift to out of the north-northeast at 10 to 15 knots. Wind speeds are anticipated to increase into tomorrow morning, and gusts to 25 knots will be possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

One more day of mostly dry and warm conditions is expected before a shift in the weather pattern arrives to start the new work week. Highs will approach the upper 80s to 90 degrees Sunday afternoon with light offshore winds turning onshore at the coast late in the day. Humidity values are forecast to sink into the 30-35 percent range, leading to some fire sensitive conditions. An isolated lightning storm or two is possible along the Treasure Coast this afternoon and evening.

A cold front arrives Sunday night, bringing gusty northeast winds to the region into Monday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible Monday and Tuesday with occasional gusts to 30 mph (especially along the coast). Moisture briefly increases along and just behind the front, supporting isolated to scattered showers along the coast, then spreading inland mainly from Melbourne south through Monday afternoon. A lightning storm cannot be ruled out, but lightning chances are generally 25 percent or less. High pressure builds over east central Florida through mid week, accompanied by lower humidity values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 65 77 60 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 89 67 79 59 / 10 10 10 0 MLB 85 69 78 65 / 20 20 20 0 VRB 86 68 79 65 / 30 30 40 10 LEE 88 64 80 56 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 89 66 79 57 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 89 67 80 59 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 87 68 80 64 / 30 30 50 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.