textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 123 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Poor boating conditions offshore and a High Risk of rip currents at area beaches will persist through late week.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop each day through this weekend, mainly along the inland moving east coast sea breeze. There is a low (20% or less) chance of lightning storms.

- Temperatures will remain well above normal over the next several days, with high temps reaching the mid to upper 80s across the interior. These will be near record values for inland sites this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently-Tonight...Diffuse east coast sea breeze will continue to push inland, west of I-95 through the afternoon, with isolated to scattered shower development forecast along and inland of this boundary. Hi-res guidance continues to show a somewhat summer-like pattern with increasing coverage of showers and storms with the sea breeze collision, which is favored to occur across west central Florida late in the day and into early evening. Therefore highest potential for showers/storms will be focused just west of the area, but will maintain 20-40 percent rain chances across inland portions of east central FL for the afternoon/early evening. Once convection diminishes, it will be mostly dry into tonight, with isolated onshore moving showers possible, mainly along the Treasure Coast. Mild temperatures forecast with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Elevated southeast wind speeds in the lower levels should again limit fog potential, but patchy fog will again be possible, mainly near to northwest of I-4 late tonight through early morning Friday.

Friday-Saturday...Ridge axis of high pressure across the West Atlantic will remain north of the area through late week and into early weekend. This will continue a moderate onshore flow across the area. Isolated showers may move onshore, especially during the nighttime and morning hours, south of the Cape. Then isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will be possible with the inland moving east coast sea breeze each afternoon. Hi-res guidance doesn't seem to be as enthusiastic at this point with convective coverage tomorrow as it does for this afternoon/evening. However, for now will keep low end 20-30 percent rain chances for mostly inland areas on Friday, with a modest increase in PoPs to 30-40 percent on Saturday. Highs will reach the low 80s along the coast to mid 80s across the interior. This will lead to near record max temps for Leesburg and Sanford on Saturday. Record highs for March 7th at both sites are 88 degrees last set in 2023.

Sunday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Surface high pressure is nudged slightly further into the western Atlantic as a cold front moves across the Great Lakes and offshore the northeast U.S. coast. Winds shift more out of the southeast early next week, but remain east-southeast along the Treasure Coast, further south of the ridge axis. Mostly isolated showers are forecast Sunday, primarily driven by the east coast sea breeze and surface heating. A slightly drier airmass advects across east central Florida Monday and Tuesday with enough agreement in global ensembles to keep PoPs below 15% for most of the forecast area. A gradual warming trend will continue with low 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s west of I-95 each afternoon. Highs will continue to be near records for inland sites (mostly Leesburg and Sanford) Sunday through the middle of next week. Low temperatures are mostly forecast in the mid 60s, although becoming a little cooler across rural locations.

MARINE

Issued at 123 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

High pressure over the West Atlantic will maintain a moderate to at times fresh east-southeast breeze across the coastal waters through this weekend into early next week. Wind speeds will mostly be 10-15 knots, but may briefly increase to 15-20 knots across the offshore waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast tonight and Friday night. This increase in winds and lingering seas up to 6 feet offshore will continue poor boating conditions across much of the Gulf Stream waters through at Friday morning. From Friday afternoon onward, boating conditions are forecast to become more favorable as seas look to fall to 3-5 feet. The onshore breeze will continue to generate isolated to scattered showers across the coastal waters through at least Sunday, and could see an isolated thunderstorm or two, especially on Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1258 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

"Bouncy" ceilings have been observed across portions of east central Florida early this morning. Models are not handling this well, resulting in low to moderate forecast confidence. Have kept prevailing MVFR impacts at ISM/LEE through around sunrise with TEMPOs mentioned at SFB/MCO where confidence is lower. MVFR TEMPOs also included along the Treasure Coast to best capture ongoing observations. East winds around 5 kts across the interior this morning remain slightly higher along the coast (lighter at DAB). East winds then increase to around 10-12 kts by late morning and into the afternoon, becoming gusty at times along the Treasure Coast. Isolated showers are forecast across the interior this afternoon with VCSH mentioned at MCO/ISM and VCTS at LEE.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 81 64 81 63 / 10 10 30 10 MCO 85 67 85 66 / 20 10 40 10 MLB 81 66 81 65 / 10 20 40 10 VRB 81 66 81 65 / 10 20 30 10 LEE 86 65 86 65 / 20 10 40 10 SFB 86 65 86 64 / 20 10 30 10 ORL 86 67 86 66 / 20 10 40 10 FPR 81 65 82 64 / 20 20 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.