textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Above-normal coverage of showers and storms continues through the weekend. A few strong storms are forecast, capable of producing gusty winds up to around 45 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall leading to localized flooding.

- Unsettled weather slowly transitions toward more normal summertime conditions by next Tuesday or Wednesday as high pressure builds over the state.

- Seasonably hot conditions each day ahead of the storms. Very muggy, with peak heat indices up to around 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida remains situated at the base of a mid-level trough along the Eastern Seaboard. Upstream, an additional disturbance over the Missouri Valley is pushing toward the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, anomalous H5 ridging extends from the W Caribbean Sea to the Mojave Desert. The surface Bermuda high remains centered just south of the Florida Peninsula. To its north, a quasi-stationary front is parked from offshore of Cape Hatteras to near Montgomery, AL. This has focused a reservoir of tropical moisture, with PWAT values exceeding 2 inches over Florida and the northern Gulf Coast.

Through this weekend, the shortwave over the Upper Midwest is expected to deepen into a longwave trough over the Mississippi River Valley. On its eastern flank, vorticity perturbations will emanate from the NE Gulf, skirting close to Central Florida. Broad southwesterly flow persists, sending copious moisture over the state.

Early next week, global ensembles suggest the trough will begin to fill. Beyond Wednesday (8/5), the large H5 anticyclones over the Four Corners and W Atlantic should attempt to bridge into a large ridge axis extending roughly along 35 N latitude. Should this occur, the near-surface high pressure axis would also move northward, allowing E/SE flow to return off the Atlantic. However, a glance at 30/12Z cluster analysis revealed low confidence in the strength of the ridge over the SE U.S. by late next week. This introduces uncertainty regarding how far northward the surface ridge axis will travel, which will affect the available moisture and dominant sea breeze patterns that dictate convective coverage by that time.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

A compact area of thunderstorms along the Nature Coast is slowly progressing toward the SE this morning, its debris showers clipping portions of Lake and Orange counties. Low rain/storm chances (20-40%) are in the forecast to account for this. This sustained overnight activity is somewhat unusual for summertime, indicating that forcing remains in place and continues to interact with the high moisture overhead.

It is quite difficult to pinpoint the impulses sparking these rounds of showers and storms. With a trough axis immediately to our north, it is likely that another round will develop from midday into the afternoon. West-southwest flow will continue to favor more activity on the eastern half of the peninsula. Model proximity soundings support some stronger storms again today, with frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts from 35 to 45 mph, and perhaps even some coin-sized hail. Shear remains weak, limiting sustained organization of storms. However, repeated bands of storms interacting with the rich moisture can produce excessive rainfall in a hurry. REFS 95th percentile rainfall tallies of 3+ inches in 6 hours support this isolated flooding threat.

Highs today should be close to normal in the lower 90s, with peak heat indices from 100 to 105. Later tonight, only low rain and storm chances linger amid warm and muggy conditions.

Weekend - Monday...

Those planning to be outdoors this weekend should keep their umbrellas (and backup plans) ready to go. A rinse-and-repeat pattern continues for Central FL as moisture pools over the state and southwesterly flow pushes scattered to numerous storms (60-80%) toward the eastern half of the peninsula by afternoon/evening. The presence of weak disturbances aloft may also act as triggers for storms earlier in the day or lingering into the night. Will continue to monitor for wind gusts to 45 mph, frequent lightning, and multiple rounds of heavy rain, leading to localized flooding in urban and poorly drained locales. Beachgoers and boaters should keep an eye on the western sky for dark clouds and approaching storms.

Seasonably warm high temps in the lower 90s should prevail each day.

Tuesday - Next Friday...

A transition back to more typical summertime weather is expected during this period as offshore flow relaxes and high pressure pushes overhead. Afternoon and evening storms should become driven by the sea breeze circulation once again, rather than synoptic triggers. As background winds become light and onshore, the Atlantic sea breeze should become more dominant and push westward. This should focus maximum rain and storm coverage deeper into the interior. Near- to above-normal moisture is expected to persist, leading to localized heavy rain and gusty wind potential from the strongest storms.

MARINE

Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The local Atlantic sits between a stationary front over South Georgia and the western Atlantic high-pressure axis over the Florida Straits. Persistent offshore flow through the weekend will interact with weak disturbances to produce rounds of offshore-moving showers and storms. Gusty winds are anticipated with this activity. The high should begin to lift northward by the middle of next week, and a return of the daily sea breeze circulation is likely.

South-southwest winds with speeds less than 12 kt through Saturday morning. From late Saturday into Sunday, a subtle wind surge occurs with S/SW winds 10-15 kt. Seas 1-2 ft nearshore through the weekend, up to 3-4 ft in the Gulf Stream from Saturday night through early Monday, especially north of Sebastian Inlet.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 640 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Isold SHRA moving east may affect DAB/SFB/LEE and even MCO early this morning so have started off with VCSH there. Another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms will form later this morning and push eastward affecting many terminals including MCO during the early to mid afternoon then push offshore. The latest HRRR model outputs looks too slow with convective timing and have bumped up TEMPO groups starting with 16Z at LEE and 17Z at MCO/SFB. The east coast sea breeze will likely develop but remained pinned to the coast. While not depicting a wind shift at coastal terminals, storms may fire along the sea breeze MLB-SUA during the early to mid afternoon so have inserted a TEMPO there. One or more terminals could see a 2nd round of TSRA (such as DAB) in the early evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 74 90 74 / 70 40 80 20 MCO 91 75 91 75 / 70 30 80 30 MLB 91 75 90 75 / 70 30 80 10 VRB 91 73 90 73 / 70 30 80 10 LEE 90 75 89 75 / 70 40 80 40 SFB 91 75 91 75 / 70 40 80 20 ORL 91 76 90 76 / 70 30 80 20 FPR 91 73 90 73 / 70 30 70 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.