textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

- Coverage of showers and isolated storms will increase through this evening with periods of moderate to heavy rain. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible. - Hazardous boating conditions will develop Monday into Tuesday especially in the Gulf Stream.

- Near seasonable temperatures most of this coming week with a cooldown next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Thru tonight...Sfc analysis shows a nearly stationary frontal boundary across central FL across Osceola and Brevard counties. To the north, stratus and cool temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s. To the south, more breaks in the clouds and a south wind component warming temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Weak low pressure over the northern Gulf will move east along this boundary and across FL tonight. Already seeing an increase in shower coverage spreading ENE along and north of the boundary. Mid level lapse rates remain poor based on special 18Z TBW sounding but deep layer shear exists along with noticeable 0-1km helicities increasing 150-250 m2/s2 later this evening. But this will be after peak heating and any deep convection (thunder) that can develop from Orlando northward would likely be elevated (not sfc-based). Regardless, band of heavy rain could set up across north/central sections this evening with locally up to 3" of rain. The convection should decrease in coverage and intensity as it shifts SE overnight into Okeechobee/Treasure coast.

Mon...Cold front will push south across the area with lingering showers across central/southern sections. North wind will advect drier air down the peninsula with rain chances ending from north to south during the day. But skies will be slow to clear so remaining mostly cloudy. Max temps will range from near 70 north to the near 80 Martin county.

Tue-Sun (modified)...Mainly dry through the period with less model indication of significant cold air intrusion into central FL. Sfc high pressure ridge will settle southward reaching central FL Wed. A reinforcing, but weak, high pressure ridge builds over central Florida late week. A stronger cold front is forecast to reach the area next weekend but wind flow should quickly turn onshore and modify the airmass. Max temperatures below normal Tue ranging from the mid to upper 60s north to the mid 70s south. Then 70s forecast mid to late week before dropping back into the mid 60s to lower 70s next weekend. Low temps holding in the 40s and 50s.

MARINE

Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A nearly stationary front across central FL and the adjacent Atlc this afternoon separates a north wind component north of the Cape and a south wind component to the south. High coverage of showers and isolated storms will develop through tonight as weak low pressure rides east along the front. Poor to hazardous boating conditions develop Monday as northerly winds 20 knots and gusty build seas 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream. Have initiated Small Craft Advisory for the Volusia waters as well as the offshore (Gulf Stream) waters starting at 4 pm Monday. High pressure settles southward reaching the local waters Wed with weak reinforcing high pressure late week. Although NE winds will decrease Tue 10-15 knots, seas will be slow to subside, maintaining 7 FT in the Gulf Stream. Seas will gradually subside mid to late week thanks to proximity of the ridge axis with 2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore by Fri. Rain chances diminish from north to south behind the front Monday with dry conditions building into mid week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1250 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

A weak front will continue to sag southward through the area through today, with diminishing chances for showers from north to south. SHRA continuing over the next couple of hours, with VCSH then prevailing through at least 14Z. Recent CAM runs dry the Treasure Coast out a bit earlier than other guidance, so will need to monitor for future updates. Regardless, MVFR/IFR CIGs look to persist through much of the TAF period and look to clear around 0Z or later. Breezy northerly winds near 10-12 kts this afternoon will have occasional gusts to 20 kts, especially along the coast. Winds are then forecast to remain elevated through the overnight hours tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 69 51 66 51 / 20 0 0 0 MCO 72 53 68 53 / 30 0 0 0 MLB 74 57 71 57 / 40 0 0 0 VRB 76 58 72 56 / 50 0 0 10 LEE 70 48 66 48 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 71 50 67 51 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 71 51 67 52 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 77 58 72 57 / 50 0 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.