textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Gusty northerly winds this afternoon behind a recent "cool" front sagging through the Florida peninsula, with highest gusts up to 35 mph across coastal Volusia and the Brevard barrier islands. Wind gusts on Friday 25-30 mph (highest coast) for much of the area.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will persist into at least Friday and likely into the weekend. Rip Current Statements, High Surf Advisories, Coastal Flood Advisories, and Small Craft Advisories have been issued. Residents and visitors should stay out of the life-threatening surf.

- A taste of fall is in store for the rest of the week and into early next week, as drier and somewhat cooler conditions gradually filter down the peninsula.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Current-Friday...A weak "cool" frontal boundary continues to sag into the southern FL peninsula thru late day and early evening. Mostly SCT onshore-moving showers and ISOLD lightning storms will remain possible thru the afternoon and early evening with chances confined closer towards the coast later this evening and overnight. Breezy/windy/gusty northerly winds will gradually fall to around 10 mph or less inland this evening and overnight, but may remain elevated 15-20 mph along the immediate Volusia/Space coasts with frequent higher gusts as the pgrad remains rather tight. Primary impacts from convection remain heavy downpours, brief gusty winds and occasional lightning strikes. With drier air filtering down the peninsula precip chances into Fri (20-50%) will mostly remain confined closer towards the coast as activity moves southward. Northerly winds will remain stout again on Fri, with speeds 15-20 mph (10-15 mph well inland) and gusts 25-30 mph (highest toward the coast).

These persistent, strong northerly winds have created life- threatening beach and marine conditions. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf will continue with large, breaking waves of 5-8 ft. A strong southward-flowing longshore current will also be present. Expect minor coastal flooding along the Volusia coast and intracoastal waters. Residents and visitors should stay out of the dangerous surf.

Slight cooling and drier air are anticipated behind the recent front. Lows are forecast to dip into the 60s for the first time since June (see Climate section below for dates). Afternoon highs will be closer to or just below seasonal norms in the 80s.

Sat-Mon...Previous Modified...A generally pleasant weekend temperature and humidity-wise is on tap, especially in the mornings and evenings, but beach and marine conditions will remain poor to hazardous. The low pressure system over the Eastern Seaboard will lift closer to the New England coast and become cutoff (nearly stationary), but far enough away from Florida for the pressure gradient to loosen as a weakening surface high drops into the Southeast, and the Bermuda high ridge axis begins to reach back towards the Caribbean. Northerly winds could still pick up to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph Sat, mainly along the coast, then become light while veering onshore through the rest of the period. While winds are forecast to diminish, significant beach and marine hazards will linger on. Residents and visitors should be extra attentive to the forecast, as the surf may look more inviting during the weekend but rip current/surf hazards will still be present.

Morning lows will continue to be cooler and in the 60s and afternoon highs warming into the 80s with conditions mostly dry. Can't completely rule out ISOLD (less than 20%) onshore-moving showers and greatest threat along the Treasure Coast for this.

Tue-Wed...Previous Modified...Model solutions begin to diverge later into the extended. All the global models vary slightly in timing and location of a mid-upper level trough and associated surface low swinging across the CONUS, bringing the attendant surface front towards Florida mid to late next week. Prior to that, Florida remains under the influence of persistent troughing over the eastern seaboard and surface high pressure in the western Atlantic. There is some disagreement in the exact location of the surface ridge axis, but fairly confident low-level flow will remain onshore, just a question of whether it will be more ERLY or SERLY. There is less certainty how moisture will recover, with a fair spread between PWATs ticking up to near to below normal or surging back to above normal; decreasing confidence in forecast rain chances and heat impacts. As a result, official forecast calls for broadly increasing rain chances from near/below normal Tue, becoming near/above normal Wed, with the return of lightning storm chances. Temperatures tick up a few degrees becoming seasonably warm again in the M-U80s, but additional moisture may cause heat indices to jump back into the 90s.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Current-Friday...Deteriorating boating conditions continue to filter southward this afternoon into the evening behind a recent "cool" front pushing southward. Northerly winds surge to 15-25 kts, up to 30 kts in the Volusia waters. Seas respond by building 6-9 ft north of the Cape and 5-7 ft to the south by the evening; further increasing to 9-12 ft and 6-10 ft respectively by Fri morning. Highest seas located offshore in the Gulf Stream. Northerly winds begin to back off Fri night to 15-20 kts as the front settles south of the area, but seas remain elevated as northerly winds oppose the northward flowing Gulf Stream. SCT to NMRS fast-moving showers with ISOLD-SCT lightning storms will gradually decrease in coverage Fri night into the weekend as drier air filters in.

Sat-Mon...Previous Modified...Poor to hazardous boating conditions, mainly due to elevated seas, will linger through the weekend as the front settles south of the area. Weakening high pressure moves into the southeast U.S. and the Bermuda high ridge axis begin to build back towards the Caribbean. Northerly winds settle to 10-15 kts Sat, occasionally pushing to 15-20 kts, then ease to 5-10 kts Sun, veering ERLY Mon. Seas will be very slow to subside from 6-8 ft Sat morning, to 4-6 ft Sun morning, and 3-5 ft Mon morning. Mostly dry conditions forecast, but a few showers may pop up in the Treasure Coast waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 748 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

TEMPO MVFR ceilings continue from the Cape northward this evening. Breezy north winds subside to around 8-12 kts across the interior into tonight while locally higher winds and gusts are forecast along the coast. Light to moderate showers diminish from north to south this evening through the early morning, persisting longer along the southern Treasure Coast. North winds increase between 10-15 kts at most terminals tomorrow with the highest gusts along the coast.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The St Johns River at Astor is in Minor Flood Stage due to gusty northerly winds and tidal effects, and is forecast to continue to rise through Minor Flood Stage into the weekend. The river is forecast to remain in at least Minor Flood Stage through the weekend and into early next week.

CLIMATE

Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Last date the temperature was below 70 degrees (F) this year at select sites:

DAB: June 8th (67 deg) LEE: June 8th (68 deg) SFB: June 8th (67 deg) MCO: June 8th (69 deg) MLB: June 8th (68 deg) VRB: June 11th (69 deg) FPR: June 11th (69 deg)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 81 67 82 / 40 30 0 0 MCO 72 84 66 85 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 75 84 70 83 / 50 40 10 0 VRB 74 85 70 84 / 50 40 20 10 LEE 70 85 65 85 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 71 82 65 84 / 20 10 0 0 ORL 72 83 66 84 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 73 85 69 84 / 50 40 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-552-570- 572.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ555-575.