textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Patchy/areas of fog possible, mainly near to north of the I-4 corridor through early this morning.

- A High Risk of rip currents persists at area beaches this weekend. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

- Low humidity values will create fire-sensitive conditions this weekend.

- Dry and warmer than normal conditions forecast this weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Currently...As high pressure nudges in from the west, weakening winds and clear skies may still aid in patchy/areas of fog forming through the remainder of the night through early this morning. Hi-res guidance has been indicating greatest potential for fog and localized visibilities of a half mile or less near to north of the I-4 corridor. The HRRR has been backing off some on overall coverage, but still indicates patchy dense fog will be possible across this region. Should any fog form it will quickly lift and diminish soon after sunrise.

Today-Monday...High pressure currently centered over the Gulf will begin to shift eastward into Florida today and settle across the region through late weekend into the start of the work week. This will lead to a decrease in wind speeds, dry conditions and warming temperatures. Highs today will be near to slightly above normal, climbing to the upper 70s along the immediate coast and low 80s near to west of I-95. Max temps on Sunday and Monday then rise to the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be near to slightly below normal in the low to mid 50s.

If headed to the beach this weekend, be aware that a continued High Risk for rip currents persists along the east central Florida coast due to a lingering easterly swell. Entering the hazardous surf is strongly discouraged today through tomorrow!

Tuesday-Friday...A weak front is forecast to move southward into central Florida Tuesday, with this boundary stalling and eventually fading across the area through mid to late week. This will lead to an increase in moisture and returning rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday, with winds becoming onshore. PoPs currently increase up to 20-40% mainly north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast Tuesday, and then range from 20-30% across the area Wednesday. There looks to be a modest increase in instability (CAPE between 500-1000 J/kg) with this boundary, and the forecast maintains a low potential (20-30% chance) for thunderstorms both days into midweek. Unfortunately, rainfall amounts at this time don't look overly impressive from this next system, and look unlikely to bring any relief from ongoing drought conditions. WPC forecast rainfall totals through this time frame mostly remain less than a quarter of an inch. As front then fades into late week, dry conditions are then forecast Thursday and Friday.

The front doesn't look to bring any drop in temperatures to the area as it will remain weak and flow quickly shifts onshore. Warmer than normal temperatures will prevail, with highs in the 80s continuing across the area through the remainder of the work week and lows in the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Today-Monday...High pressure centered over the Gulf shifts eastward and across the area through this weekend into early this week, which will keep dry conditions in place across the area. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue across the waters today, with boating conditions then improving Sunday and Monday as seas slowly subside. Wind directions vary through the period, but speeds will be generally less than 15 knots.

A Small Craft Advisory continues over the offshore waters through 10 AM this morning for lingering seas up to 7 feet. Additionally, small craft should exercise caution across the nearshore waters south of the Volusia-Brevard County line for seas up to 6 feet through this time frame. Into the late morning and through early this evening, small craft will still need to exercise caution over the Gulf Stream waters for seas up to 6 feet. Seas then fall to 3-5 feet on Sunday and 2-4 feet Monday.

Tuesday-Wednesday...A front is forecast to push southward into the coastal waters on Tuesday as it stalls and gradually fades across the area through mid to late week. The arrival of this front will lead to deteriorating boating conditions and an increase in showers and potentially a few storms. A brief surge in E/NE winds (currently forecast up to 15-25 knots) is forecast to occur late Tuesday into Tuesday night, mainly near to north of the Cape. Additionally, a long easterly fetch produced by high pressure north of the front is forecast to build seas across the entire waters up to 7-10 feet from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night/Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Light and variable winds tonight as high pressure moves overhead. This will increase the potential for fog development late tonight into early Saturday morning. Patchy to areas of fog are forecast, with the greatest potential occurring along and north of the I-4 corridor. Guidance is showing a 20-40% chances for MVFR-IFR VIS reductions at I-4/north terminals between 08Z-13Z. For KMCO, highest chances (around 30%) between 10Z-12Z, but there remains some uncertainty in timing. Visibility reductions south of the I-4 corridor remain very low (10% or less). Otherwise, VFR conditions through the TAF period. Have included a TEMPO starting at 09Z for 2SM BR sct008 at MCO-SFB-LEE-ISM-DAB. Winds turn W-N Saturday, but will remain light. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form after 17Z, backing the winds onshore, mainly from MLB-SUA. Winds then become light and variable once again in the late afternoon and early evening (between 21-00Z).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast to continue through this weekend and into early next week. High pressure across the Gulf builds eastward across the area leading to dry conditions and warmer than normal conditions. Offshore winds will become onshore along the coast in the afternoon, with the developing east coast sea breeze. While wind speeds will be 10 mph or less today, a very dry airmass will allow afternoon Min RH values to fall to critical values, between 25 to 35 percent for much of the area. A little stronger westerly transport wind across northern sections Sunday combined with continued critical min RH values will produce a more fire sensitive day. Dispersion values will range from Fair to Generally Good today. On Sunday, only Fair dispersion is forecast across far southern sections (Okeechobee County/Treasure Coast) but improving to Good to Very Good to the north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 81 53 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 81 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 78 54 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 78 53 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 82 54 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 82 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 56 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 78 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572- 575.