textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Turning breezy to windy, especially at the coast, late this afternoon through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents.

- A wet pattern of onshore moving showers and a few storms is forecast mid to late week. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas, especially later in the week.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast into early next week with peak heat indices in the triple digits (100-107F).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Today-tonight... Ridging aloft across the Deep South will remain in place today, with the axis stretching across the Florida peninsula. At the surface, high pressure expands along the eastern seaboard as a front draped over portions of the Deep South (and out into the western Atlantic) shifts southeast into north to north-central Florida this afternoon, and across central into tonight. Locally, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten this afternoon, resulting in the east-northeast winds increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. A diffuse east coast sea breeze has already formed this afternoon and is pushing inland. Deep moisture south of the aforementioned surface boundary will persist this afternoon, and will aid in convection today, with forecast PW values of 2.0-2.2". Scattered showers and isolated storms formed late this morning along the sea breeze with activity increasing in coverage and intensity as the sea breeze pushes inland this afternoon. The greatest chance for showers and storms (PoP 50-60 percent) will be across the interior this afternoon as the sea breeze continues to push inland. Any lingering activity across the interior will diminish into early evening, with isolated to scattered showers and storms remaining possible along the coast in the onshore flow.

The environment supports convection today with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1900-2200 J/kg), sufficient shear (25-33 KT of shear from SFC-8km), adequate buoyancy (lifted index of -3 to -5), and decent downdraft potential (450-630 J/kg). However, poor lapse rates should generally limit organized stronger storms this afternoon. Because of this, main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Due to warmer temperatures aloft (-5.5 to -6C at 500 mb), hail is not expected today. Outside of storms, temperatures are forecast to be seasonable, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures combined with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-107F. Warm and muggy conditions will continue tonight, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s, remaining warmest along the coast.

Wednesday-Thursday... Upper level high pressure across the Deep South will move ever so slightly to the east on Wednesday and then remain in place through Thursday, with shortwave energy traversing across Florida through the period. An upper level trough will develop offshore the east coast of Florida on Thursday and slowly shift westwards towards the Florida peninsula through the day. At the surface, high pressure along the eastern seaboard of the US will slowly shift eastward and offshore by late Thursday, while the axis remains over the Florida peninsula. Locally, the pressure gradient will continue to tighten on Wednesday, increasing the east to northeast flow to around 15-20 mph with peak gusts 25-30 mph at times. Conditions will remain breezy on Thursday, as east-northeast winds diminish to 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph at times. A drier airmass will filter across north-central Florida on Wednesday, with a tight moisture gradient forecast across south-central Florida. The rain chances reflect this, with a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain from Orlando Metro to Cape Canaveral northward (where the driest air is forecast), and medium to high (50- 70 percent) chance of rain southward, with a few storms throughout the day. Rain chances on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday as the trough pushes a little closer to the Florida peninsula, with continued rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms across the south with lower rain chances across the north, especially northwest of I-4.

Temperatures will be seasonable, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Muggy and warm conditions will continue overnight and into early morning, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. However, areas along the Barrier Islands may struggle to fall below the 80 degree mark each morning.

Due to the increase in winds on Wednesday, periods of poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions, a high risk of life threatening rip currents, and rough surf across all local beaches are forecast. The continued breezy conditions on Thursday will promote a high risk of rip currents continuing on Thursday. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is not advised!

Friday-Monday... Upper level high pressure across the Deep South will remain in place through the weekend. The aforementioned trough will become a closed low off the eastern coast of Florida on Friday and slowly push westward, across the Florida peninsula, and out into the Gulf through the weekend before shifting northward towards the LA/MS/AL coastline into early next week. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly move north and westward (closer to the US) through the period, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Locally, moisture will recover behind the low pressure, resulting in moderate to high rain chances areawide. Light easterly winds veer southeast to south late in the weekend, becoming more onshore and locally enhanced each afternoon with the development of a weak sea breeze. Temperatures will be seasonable with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Today-Saturday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions develop late this afternoon through mid week as the local pressure gradient tightens over the area as high pressure expands across the eastern US. East to northeast winds increase to 15-20 KT north of Cape Canaveral into this evening before expanding to the Brevard waters and increasing to 20-25 KT. Winds 15-20 KT spread south of the Sebastian Inlet late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Small Craft Advisories go into effect late this evening and overnight for the Volusia and Brevard waters before expanding to all the waters Wednesday afternoon. Seas 2-4ft this afternoon will build to 6-8 ft across the northern Volusia waters tonight (generally after midnight Wednesday), spreading southward through the Treasure Coast Wednesday afternoon. Winds and seas show a diminishing trend early Thursday and continuing through early weekend. Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast for the local Atlantic waters Friday and Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each day as an upper level low approaches and passes near or through the local Atlantic waters before moving across the state and out into the Gulf.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms. On-off showers/storms are forecast through this PM & again overnight w/ onshore flow in place. PROB30/TEMPO groups for TSRA exists between 18Z-22Z at all TAFs, as well as between 08Z-12Z at KMLB/KVRB/KFPR/KSUA. Expect breezy ENE winds at 8-18kts w/ gusts up to 20-28kts. An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 78 88 77 87 / 50 30 30 40 MCO 76 90 74 89 / 30 30 10 40 MLB 79 88 78 88 / 70 70 30 60 VRB 77 88 76 88 / 60 70 50 60 LEE 76 90 74 89 / 10 10 10 30 SFB 76 88 74 87 / 30 30 20 40 ORL 77 89 75 88 / 30 30 10 40 FPR 77 88 76 88 / 60 70 50 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575.