textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Dry conditions will persist across east central Florida through Monday along with a period of seasonable temperatures.

- A high risk of rip currents is anticipated to continue at all east central Florida beaches through at least Monday. Entering the surf is not advised!

- Moisture increases across the Florida peninsula from Tuesday onward, resulting in a return of rain and storm chances locally. A slight uptick in temperatures and a return of humidity is also forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Tonight-Monday...A dry air mass remains in place across the Florida peninsula tonight through Monday. PWATs generally range between 0.8- 1.2", with some pockets of moisture building slightly on Monday up to 1.6". Overall, this drier air will continue to limit rain and storm chances across east central Florida, with no mentionable chances through Monday. Light and variable winds persist through tonight and early Monday, becoming slightly more onshore during the afternoon hours as a weak, diffuse sea breeze develops and moves inland. Mostly clear skies continue through tonight and into Monday, with afternoon temperatures staying seasonable in the mid 80s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the 60s.

Long period swells will support a continued high risk of rip currents at all east central Florida beaches tonight and into Monday. Entering the ocean is not advised!

Tuesday-Saturday...A mid-level trough drifts southward towards the Florida peninsula through the middle of the week, eventually becoming a broad closed low across the eastern Gulf. Mid-level high pressure across the Atlantic drifts westward towards the peninsula by Thursday, pushing the low farther into the Gulf through late week. At the surface, the broad high pressure situated across the peninsula lifts northward as an area of low pressure out across the Atlantic far east of the Carolinas lifts northeastward, slowly dragging a stalled frontal boundary northward across Florida. By mid to late week, an additional broad disturbance develops near Cuba, drifting northwestward into the Gulf. Overall, this set-up will result in gradually increasing moisture across east central Florida, further aided by persistent onshore flow advecting moist air from the Atlantic. Isolated to scattered rain and storm chances return to the Treasure Coast and areas around Lake Okeechobee on Tuesday, spreading northward and encompassing the entire forecast area from Wednesday onward. A majority of the activity is anticipated to follow a diurnal pattern, with daytime heating supporting the development of a diffuse sea breeze each afternoon. Intrusion inland and additional local boundary interactions will further support development, with showers and storms diminishing into the overnight period. While it remains too early to pinpoint exact storm threats, lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours all look to be possible at this time. It is important to note that while activity is anticipated to diminish during the overnight hours, the persistent onshore flow will support low chances (20-30%) of isolated onshore- moving showers through the overnight and early morning hours along the coast. Scattered shower and storm development will remain possible across the local Atlantic waters through the overnight hours.

The taste of fall across east central Florida this weekend will unfortunately be brief, with temperatures forecast to trend a bit warmer. The warmest temperatures are anticipated across the interior (upper 80s to low 90s), with the onshore flow keeping places along the coast a bit closer to normal (mid to upper 80s). The increasing moisture also will push dewpoints higher, resulting in a return of peak heat indices into the upper 90s and even near 100 by late week. Overnight temperatures will also trend near to slightly above normal through the extended.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Light and variable winds tonight into Monday will continue to allow seas to subside across the local Atlantic waters, falling from 3 to 5 feet tonight to 2 to 3 feet on Monday. Wind speeds stay below 15 knots, generally around 10 knots across the local waters. By Tuesday, winds are anticipated to become easterly and southeasterly, with wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots persisting through the week. Local enhancements closer to the coast will be possible as a result of the east coast sea breeze. Seas of 2 to 3 feet slowly build once again due to the onshore flow, reaching 4 feet primarily across the offshore waters by mid week. Overall, boating conditions are anticipated to remain generally favorable.

Dry conditions will persist through Monday due to dry air limiting shower and storm development. By Tuesday, moisture slowly begins building once again across the Treasure Coast waters, spreading northward by Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day, with continued development possible into the overnight hours due to the persistent onshore flow. Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be possible with activity.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Winds light/variable thru 14-15z, increasing 5-8 kt from the SW, then veering onshore as the ECSB moves inland after 17-19z (except at LEE). Speeds could reach 10-12 kt thru 01z. VFR conds.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is actively cresting due to a previous period of northerly winds and ongoing tidal effects. River levels are forecast to gradually subside through Minor Flood Stage this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 70 88 72 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 88 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 87 72 87 74 / 0 0 20 30 VRB 87 71 88 72 / 0 0 30 30 LEE 88 70 89 72 / 10 0 20 0 SFB 88 70 89 72 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 88 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 87 70 88 71 / 0 0 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.