textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

- A seasonably warm and quiet stretch of weather is forecast through the middle of next week behind a weak front. A substantial pattern change is increasingly likely late next week with our next appreciable chance for rain and cooler temperatures potentially following

- A long-period swell is causing a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the ocean!

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin earlier this week. Heed the advice of local officials if affected by flooding. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry conditions across east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Analysis charts show a "cool front" over the Treasure Coast which extends from low pressure (1008mb) situated near the northeastern US coast. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to mid 80s with dew points in the low 50s to low 70s. The dry weather is expected to persist through the night across east central Florida with seasonable to slightly above low temperatures in the upper 50s to around 70F degrees.

Sunday-Monday... A rather persistent forecast is expected through the end of the weekend and into the workweek. Substantial dry air is expected to filter across east central Florida with north- northeast winds on Sunday shifting east-northeast on Monday at 5-10mph. Meanwhile, the pattern is expected to remain mostly zonal at 300mb over the southern US which will help keep things quiet for east central Florida. Afternoon highs in the low 80s to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to near 70F degrees.

Tuesday-Friday... Moisture is expected to increase Tuesday and through late week with PWATs between 1.0"-1.50" Tuesday and between 1.30"-1.70" Wednesday before deterministic models begin to diverge in solutions with the next cold front Thursday into Friday. Isolated to widely scattered off and on onshore moving showers are forecast on Tuesday. Mostly dry weather is forecast on Wednesday. Deterministic models show two different scenarios on Thursday into Friday with the GFS and CMC showing a deeper low that will bring widespread rainfall to east central Florida with the ECMWF indicating a weaker low and drier weather for east central Florida. The LREF-ensemble clusters are in decent agreement and are closer to the GFS and CMC solution, therefore, at least a slight increase in rain chances is likely as we get closer to Thursday into Friday. Seasonable to slightly above temperatures are forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Currently-Tonight... Dry weather and choppy boating conditions are expected behind a "cool front" situated over the Treasure Coast waters. Expect north winds at 10-15kts to shift north- northeast Sunday at 5-10kts. Seas to 3-4ft nearshore and 4-6ft offshore are forecast. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution offshore (20-60nm)

Sunday-Wednesday... Choppy boating conditions are expected to gradually improve Monday into Tuesday. Isolated onshore moving showers are forecast Monday with isolated to widely scattered showers on Tuesday. Expect east-northeast winds at 5-10kts to shift east Tuesday before turning offshore north of Cape Canaveral Wednesday at around 4-8kts. Seas to 3-4ft nearshore and 3-5ft (up to 6ft across the Volusia to Brevard county waters) offshore are forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1237 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at ECFL terminals through the TAF period. A weak front INVOF KVRB-KSUA is occasionally producing MVFR CIGs, but expect these to lift with additional daytime heating. Can't rule out an ISO SHRA from this area to KOBE in the late afternoon- evening as a weak sea breeze pushes inland. Winds 5-10 kts today shift from NW-NE, becoming light/VRB overnight. There is a low (less than 20%) chance for VIS reductions INVOF of KMCO/inland terminals late tonight-early Sunday morning, not enough for mention in the TAFs. Winds pick back up to 5-10 kts Sunday, but will remain shifty as weak sea breezes again develop. Dry conditions (SH chances less than 10%) forecast.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise the next several days through Minor and in some cases Moderate flood stage. The river at Cocoa (COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage this weekend with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage towards the middle of next week. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 61 81 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 65 82 67 81 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 66 83 67 82 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 59 82 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 61 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 61 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 66 82 66 81 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.