textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 357 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Heavy Rainfall & Flooding: Another period of heavy rainfall is forecast Wednesday, and a Flood Watch has been extended for coastal counties through Wednesday evening. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are forecast with localized totals to 5 to 7 inches possible which may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

- Strong Winds & Coastal Hazards: Wind gusts continue to increase from north to south today, reaching 35-45 mph at times through Wednesday. There is a small chance for peak gusts of around 50 mph on the Volusia and Brevard coasts today and tonight. These winds will generate dangerous 9-12 ft surf, resulting in minor to moderate beach erosion and numerous life-threatening rip currents.

- Isolated Storms: While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few lightning storms are forecast and will be capable of wind gusts to 50 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 357 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Current-Tonight... Deep moisture in vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary combined with upper level support from a passing shortwave supported numerous showers across central Florida this morning. Afternoon radar trends and updated guidance have started to show a drying trend into the evening, but lower coverage of isolated to scattered light showers look to generally persist through tonight. Although confidence in the heavy rainfall threat today and tonight is diminishing, have opted to extend the current Flood Watch (8PM Wed.) to capture the potential for additional rounds of heavy rainfall tomorrow. Beyond the precipitation forecast, attention is directed to a surge of increasing wind this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph have been observed across Volusia county this afternoon with additional gusts 25-35 mph observed in vicinity of the Orlando metro. A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure across the eastern U.S. and the stalled frontal boundary will continue to increase winds from north to south this afternoon and evening. The highest gusts are expected along the coast, particularly near the Brevard Barrier Islands where there is a 30- 40% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph this evening. A Wind Advisory expands southward to include all of east central Florida by 8PM, continuing through 12AM across the interior and 8AM Wednesday across coastal counties. Increasing sustained onshore winds of 25-30 mph along the immediate coast will contribute to rapidly deteoriating beach and coastal conditions. A High Surf Advisory will spread southward along the coast through this evening and overnight as large breaking waves and rough surf build in the surf zone. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents is also present at all east central Florida beaches.

Wednesday-Thursday... The frontal boundary becomes stationary near south Florida and the Straits of Florida mid week. A surface low is forecast to become broadly organized along the boundary near or west of the Bahamas. Further north, high pressure continues to build along the northeast and mid Atlantic seaboard. A tight pressure gradient is maintained locally on Wednesday, gradually loosening on Thursday. This will continue to support windy and gusty onshore flow. Ensemble means support periods of sustained winds 15-20 mph across the interior, increasing to 20-30 mph along the immediate coast into Wednesday afternoon. Gusts will become higher with ensemble probabilities showing a 40 percent and greater chance for gusts to exceed 35 mph across much of east central Florida. This should support the need for an additional Wind Advisory with a future forecast package issuance. Winds slacken some Thursday, but still remain breezy with gusts 20-25 mph.

Deep moisture persists with PWATs between the 75th and 90th climatological percentiles, and numerous rounds of showers are forecast to continue through mid week. A pattern of opposing low-mid level flow should generally support a continued heavy rainfall threat along the coast, and slow moving bands of rain could support additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches. Localized totals to 7 inches may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, and WPC has highlighted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall along the east central Florida coastline Wednesday. Areas which receive multiple rounds of rainfall may become more vulnerable to flooding. The storm environment remains limited, but strong 925mb flow could support wind gusts to 50 mph in heavy showers or isolated embedded storms.

Numerous coastal and marine hazards will continue at local beaches. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through Thursday evening for large breaking waves up to 9 to 12 ft (peaking Wednesday). Minor to Moderate beach erosion will be possible at high tide. Numerous life- threatening rip currents and rough surf are expected. Entering the water is not advised!

Friday-Weekend (modified previous)... This pattern slowly but surely breaks down as we move through Friday and Saturday. Breezy conditions persist with isolated showers and storms on Friday (20%), trending drier on Saturday. Most places should be dry by Sunday and next Monday as high pressure takes control.

Beach conditions will likely remain dangerous, with rough surf and numerous rip currents continuing.

Temperatures will start to turn warmer, reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.

MARINE

Issued at 357 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A slow moving front is analyzed across the Treasure Coast waters this afternoon. Boating conditions are quickly deteriorating to the north side of the boundary with Gale Warnings spreading southward across the waters through this evening. Increasing northeast winds to gale force will build seas 10-13 ft nearshore tonight with seas increasing 12-15 ft in the Gulf Stream. Strong winds and gusts to gale force are expected to persist through Wednesday before gradually diminishing Thursday into late week. In response, seas continue to build, peaking 13-17 ft in the Gulf Stream Wednesday evening. Dangerous seas will then be very slow to subside becoming 8-10 ft in the Gulf Stream late this weekend. High coverage of showers are forecast over the local waters through Thursday with a drying trend beginning Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Tight pressure gradient between front to the south and strong high pressure well north will continue breezy to windy conditions across the area tonight through tomorrow. Light to moderate rain and showers continue this evening and may see a lull in activity overnight, before high coverage of onshore moving showers pushing well inland redevelop into tomorrow. Isolated storms will be possible too, but not enough confidence to add into the TAFs at this time. A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs will exist across the area tonight into tomorrow, but MVFR cigs look largely dominate, with localized IFR cigs possible at times. Showers/Rain bands will also lead to IFR/MVFR conditions, with locally heavy rainfall continuing to be possible, especially at the coast.

NE winds will diminish but remain breezy/gusty at times across the interior overnight and then become windy again late tomorrow morning/afternoon. Windy conditions will continue at the coast, with sustained speeds up to 20-25 knots and gusts to 30-35 knots at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 74 64 75 / 60 80 60 70 MCO 65 71 65 74 / 40 80 50 70 MLB 67 75 67 77 / 70 80 80 70 VRB 66 76 66 77 / 70 80 80 80 LEE 63 73 64 77 / 30 80 40 50 SFB 63 73 64 76 / 50 80 50 70 ORL 64 73 64 76 / 40 80 50 70 FPR 66 76 65 78 / 70 80 80 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ041-141-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ041-141-154-159- 247-254-259-347-447-547-647-747.

Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ044>046-053-058- 144.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-347- 447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ159-164.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ164-264.

AM...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575.

Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575.