textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Highest potential will be from Orlando to Cape Canaveral southward. Some storms may be strong.

- There is a High Risk of rip currents at the Volusia and Brevard Beaches and Moderate Risk of rip currents along the Treasure Coast Beaches today. Entering the surf in the Brevard and Volusia beaches is strongly discouraged. - Temperatures closer to normal today before increasing late week into early next week. Heat indices will rise into the mid to upper 90s by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Today-Tonight... The surface front will linger across central Florida through the day, generally around Brevard/Osceola area. Locally, WSW winds will dominate, with speeds 5-10 mph. The east coast sea breeze will form in the afternoon, turning the winds ENE along the coast. Deep moisture lingers across ECFL today, with PW values around 1.6-1.8". This will continue to support elevated rain chances (50-70 percent), with activity moving east-southeast and offshore. The greatest potential for storms this afternoon and evening will be from Orlando to Cape Canaveral southward. While the overall severe threat is lower today than what it has been, the environment still supports strong storms, especially from Brevard County southward. Forecast soundings show plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1200+ J/kg), sufficient shear (0-6km shear at 20 kt), adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 500-700 J/kg), and fairly cool temps aloft (-7C at 500mb). The main storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will be seasonable today, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. At the beaches, there is a High Risk of rip currents for the Brevard and Volusia beaches, and a Moderate Risk of rip currents along the Treasure Coast beaches.

Thursday-Tuesday... An upper level trough across the Great Lakes region will shift eastward and out into the Atlantic through late week. Surface high pressure builds over the local area and remains through at least early next week. Locally, winds will veer onshore late week and continuing into early next week. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to 10-15 mph. Mostly dry conditions forecast into late week, with rain chances 10- 20 percent (highest chances around Lake Okeechobee). Then a gradual increase in moisture this weekend and into early next week within the onshore flow. This will raise rain chances slightly, with a low to medium (20-50 percent) chance of rain, focused along the coast early in the day and translating inland with the afternoon sea breeze. A warming trend is forecast with temperatures reaching the low 90s inland this weekend and into early next week. Heat indices are forecast to approach the mid/upper 90s next week.

MARINE

Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Today-Tonight... Surface front will linger around Brevard/Osceola county and the adjacent waters today. Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue, primarily north of this boundary, with seas to 6-7 feet through this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for nearshore Volusia waters (through 5AM this morning) and the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard (through 2PM this afternoon). Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible once again this afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong.

Thursday-Sunday... The surface front shifts southward into late week. While rain and storm chances decrease, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon and evening. N/NW winds on Thursday at 10-15 KT will veer onshore by the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. High pressure will then build over the Florida waters late week, turning the winds onshore through the weekend, with speeds up to 10-15 KT. Seas will diminish from 3-5 feet Thursday to 2-4 feet through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

MVFR CIGs (local IFR) at many terminals this morning, with gradual improvement thru late morning. Veering winds throughout the morning/afternoon across ECFL generally 8-12 kts. Ample moisture though greatest values and SCT convective chances south of a MCO/KTIX line. Continue "Vicinity" wording for convection this afternoon, with TEMPO groups to follow once confidence increases. MVFR with convection. Light winds and decreasing precip chances this evening and overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 84 68 86 67 / 50 20 0 0 MCO 86 70 86 69 / 60 30 10 0 MLB 87 72 85 72 / 70 30 10 0 VRB 88 71 85 72 / 70 30 10 10 LEE 85 68 87 66 / 50 20 0 0 SFB 86 68 88 67 / 60 20 0 0 ORL 86 70 87 69 / 60 30 0 0 FPR 87 71 85 71 / 70 20 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570- 572.