textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Dense Fog ADVISORY until 9 am for Greater Orlando and points northward. Visibilities to a quarter mile or less in areas of fog through early this morning. - Near-record warmth today. Don't let the seemingly mild conditions fool you, there is a High Risk of rip currents at the beaches!

- A prolonged period of cold, dry weather begins Monday night. A Freeze Watch is in effect for Lake and inland Volusia Counties into Tuesday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 615 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

A combination of very low stratus and fog have enveloped the I-4 corridor this morning, with visibilities down to a quarter mile in spots. This should lift into a very low stratus then be advected out of the area by midday as south winds increase ahead of the large winter storm to our northwest.

Plenty of breaks of sunshine and a gusty breeze should still allow temps to soar to near-record highs this afternoon (mid 80s). If you like the warmth, take advantage of today because it's not sticking around...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Current-Tonight...A bank of fog continues to creep southward this morning, having reached the area of SR-528 and I-95 prior to 2 AM. Visibility reductions below 1 mile are occurring north of this area and a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Lake, Orange, Seminole, Volusia, and northern Brevard Counties, as well as the adjacent Volusia County nearshore waters. Will monitor the very slow southward progression of this feature and the possible expansion of the Advisory southward. However, winds are forecast to become increasingly south to southeasterly through sunrise, which will help stall or even reverse the progression. Regardless, increasing winds after sunrise will help to clear any lingering fog by around 9 AM.

A stalled front will lift north of the area today, as low pressure works its way eastward across the deep south. Breezy south to southwesterly flow will result from 925mb winds 25-30 kts, with winds 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph this afternoon. Warm, moist air will advect into the area along southwesterly flow, with highs rising to near- record levels as much as 15 degrees above normal. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast in the mid-80s, with upper 80s possible over the interior south of Orlando. A limiting factor to highs will be any lingering cloud cover this morning along and north of I-4, as fog lifts. Nevertheless, all of the local climate sites, with the exception of Daytona Beach, are expected to warm to within a degree or two of their respective daily record highs. A few may approach the monthly record highs for January, see the Climate section for more details. Dry conditions will continue through this evening.

Don't let the warm, dry weather fool you, beach conditions will be dangerous, with a High Risk of rip currents. Entering the water is strongly discouraged.

Winds remain elevated to breezy overnight, as the low pressure system begins to move off of the Mid-Atlantic coast and nudges a cold front nearer to the Florida peninsula. Scattered showers are forecast north and west of Orlando after midnight and through sunrise. PoPs around 30-50%, while areas to the south remain dry into day break. With southwesterly flow continuing, low temperatures will remain in the 60s.

Monday...A strong cold front will move through central Florida Monday. PoPs will decrease from north to south through the day, as drier air moves in behind the front. However, rain chances 20-40% will begin the morning, with scattered showers remaining possible along the Treasure Coast into the mid-afternoon. Low CAPE is expected to prevent any lightning storm formation over land areas. Cooler, much drier air advecting into the area along breezy and gusty northwesterly winds will limit temperatures to nearer to normal north of Melbourne, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. To the south, a longer period of southwesterly winds will help temperatures reach the lower 80s again.

Dew points are expected to tank from the upper 60s to lower 70s early Monday morning, to as low as the teens by Monday night, as PWATs fall well below 0.5". Needless to say, no precipitation is expected by the evening hours, with dry conditions overnight. Instead, cold temperatures return, as lows fall into the 30s for all but coastal areas south of Cape Canaveral. Combined with continued winds around 10-15 mph, wind chills below 30 are forecast for much of the interior. A Cold Weather Advisory is expected. The Treasure Coast will be largely spared from the much colder weather thanks to higher moisture off of the Atlantic. However, lows near to just below 40 are expected for interior portions of Indian River and St Lucie Counties and winds will produce wind chills in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

Tuesday-Saturday...High pressure builds eastward across the northern Gulf Coast into mid-week. The position of the ridge will maintain northerly winds through the period, which may be breezy at times, especially along the coast. A reinforcing, dry front is then forecast later in the week, prolonging the elevated northerly flow. Dry conditions prevail, as PWATs generally remain 0.6" or less. The main focus will be the abnormally persistent pattern of well below normal temperatures. High temperatures in the 50s to mid-60s are forecast through at least the end of the work week, ranging from as much as 10-15 degrees below normal each day. Overnight lows in the 30s and lower 40s will also continue, so will need to continue to monitor the threat for freezing temperatures in the normally colder spots, as well as wind chills below 30 degrees. Expect to see continued cold weather headlines through the week.

MARINE

Issued at 135 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions today, as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front and swell builds into the offshore waters. South to southwesterly winds today 15-20 kts will increase to 20-25 kts offshore north of Sebastian Inlet tonight. Seas 4-6 ft nearshore and 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream today. Small craft should exercise caution over the nearshore waters, with Small Craft Advisories offshore.

Conditions will remain unfavorable through much of the upcoming week. A cold front will move through the local waters Monday, veering winds northwesterly and increasing them to up to 20-30 kts by Monday night. Seas respond accordingly, building to 8-12 ft in the Gulf Stream. Scattered showers will accompany the front and cannot rule out a lightning strike or two offshore from the Treasure Coast Monday afternoon. While winds will slacken to around 15 kts or less Tuesday and Wednesday, seas will be slow to subside and remain poor to hazardous for portions of the waters into Wednesday morning. By Thursday, a reinforcing, dry cold front will deteriorate conditions once again. After Monday afternoon, no precipitation is forecast through late week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 615 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

MCO IMPACTS: - LIFR conds slowly improving between 13-15Z. - Another round of low CIGs ahead of the cold front well after midnight tonight.

Morning fog and very low stratus will be slow to scour through around 14Z, but it should then slowly lift and be sent northward as southerly winds take over. In fact, we anticipate VFR area-wide by afternoon and a few gusts to 25 KT. Late tonight, lower CIGs return as moisture pools ahead of an approaching cold front. VCSH approaching the Orlando area terminals toward daybreak Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Very warm temperatures as much as 15 degrees above normal today, as highs rise into the mid to upper 80s. Breezy southwesterly winds 15-20 mph will gust to 25-30 mph this afternoon, with no precipitation expected. Minimum RH is forecast to remain above critical levels, though very good to excellent dispersion could cause containment issues.

A cold front will pass through the local area Monday, bringing scattered showers tonight into Monday afternoon. Behind the front, a prolonged period of elevated northerly winds and near-critical minimum RH will begin and last through much of the work week. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will result, though there will be days where the breezier winds do not coincide with the lowest RH.

CLIMATE

Issued at 135 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Forecast high temperatures compared to the daily and monthly records for Sunday, January 25th.

FCST DAILY MONTHLY DAB 83 87 87 LEE 84 85 86 SFB 85 85 89 MCO 85 86 88 MLB 84 85 88 VRB 85 86 88 FPR 84 86 89

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 83 64 72 34 / 0 30 20 0 MCO 85 65 74 37 / 0 30 30 0 MLB 83 66 78 43 / 0 10 40 0 VRB 85 67 80 46 / 0 10 40 0 LEE 84 63 69 32 / 0 50 20 0 SFB 85 65 73 35 / 0 30 30 0 ORL 85 66 73 37 / 0 30 30 0 FPR 85 66 80 47 / 0 10 40 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-141-144-247-347-447.

Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ041-044-144.

AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ552-555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ575.