textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Rough surf and a high risk for numerous, strong, life- threatening rip currents continue at area beaches. Residents and visitors should use caution at the beach and avoid entering the water!

- Shower chances along the Treasure Coast through tonight, with locally heavy rainfall from repeated rounds across coastal St. Lucie/Martin counties possible. Rain chances ramp up elsewhere along the coast again this weekend. - Strong northeast winds forecast to return this weekend and early next week; very windy with dangerous surf and boating conditions, a risk for minor to moderate coastal flooding and additional beach erosion.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Rest of Today-Friday...High pressure over the Great Lakes builds eastward through the end of the work week, nudging an upper level trough through the Florida peninsula. Onshore flow persists through the period, aided by departing Subtropical Storm Josephine and a stalled front over the northern Caribbean. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasingly breezy conditions, with NE winds 10-15 mph this afternoon becoming 15-20 mph Friday. Widespread gusts 20-25 mph are forecast Friday afternoon, occasionally up to 30 mph along the coast. Onshore flow will keep high temperatures near normal, in the lower 80s. However, Atlantic waters in the 70s will keep overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s along the coast, while inland temperatures dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Early morning showers along the Treasure Coast have diminished by early afternoon. Will likely see drier conditions prevail through the daytime hours, though can't rule out a shower or two (20%) moving onshore into that area through sundown. Overall, available moisture remains relatively low compared to the last several weeks (PWATs 1.2" or less). However, with upper level support from the trough, CAMs suggest scattered showers developing overnight offshore. Rain chances increase northward into Friday night, with the highest chances remaining along the coast (30-50%). Inland areas look to stay mostly dry. The thunder threat appears low (below 20%) thanks to subsidence in the mid-levels. Will need to monitor the threat for training bands of showers, leading to minor flooding. Portions of the Treasure Coast remain in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall.

Saturday-Wednesday...High pressure strengthens over the eastern half of the US, well north of the Florida peninsula, through early next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure looks to develop over the Atlantic NE of the Bahamas along the stalled frontal boundary south of the state. The pressure gradient will become increasingly tight between these two features, enhancing already breezy onshore flow, beginning this weekend. NE winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 30-40 mph, on Saturday continue to increase Sunday and into Monday, becoming 20-25 mph, with gusts 35-45 mph. The highest gusts are forecast along the coast, where Wind Advisories appear likely. Breezy to windy low looks to linger into mid-week next week, though Sunday and Monday appear to be the windiest days.

Confidence is increasing that this prolonged period of strong onshore flow will coincide with the highest set of king tides for the year, meaning that coastal impacts will be exacerbated compared to the onshore flow event last weekend. Dangerous beach and boating conditions are forecast, with minor to moderate coastal flooding around high tide, moderate to locally major beach erosion, and high, pounding surf up to 12-15 ft. Residents and visitors are urged to stay out of the water and to even use caution on the beach itself, especially near periods of high tide.

Rain chances also look to increase this weekend, as moisture rebounds (PWATs return to 1.5"+). Multiple rounds of gusty, onshore moving showers are expected. Thus, the highest chances (up to 80% on Sunday) are forecast for coastal areas, though occasionally showers may persist into inland locations. Areas that see multiple rounds of rainfall or any training bands could see increased flooding concerns. At this time, the Treasure Coast looks to be the greatest threat area, which is highlighted under a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall each day. High temperatures remain near normal, in the lower 80s, with warmer overnight lows in the lower 70s along the coast and mid to upper 60s inland.

MARINE

Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through the end of the work week, as high pressure remains north of the local area. NE winds increase to 15-20 kts at times, while seas linger up to 7-8ft in the Gulf Stream. High pressure strengthens this weekend into early next week, tightening the pressure gradient between it and developing low pressure NE of the Bahamas. Dangerous boating conditions expected by Saturday afternoon, with gale to near gale force gusts through at least Monday. Seas rapidly build to 12-15 ft. Gale Watches/Warnings look likely by Saturday. In addition to building winds and seas, increasing coverage of showers, with a few embedded lightning storms, is forecast. The highest coverage looks to be along the Treasure Coast, with showers moving onshore and locally enhancing already strong winds.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with north- northeasterly flow. Mostly dry weather is expected, however, isolated showers near the Treasure Coast TAF sites cannot be ruled out. Expect north-northeast winds at 10kts-12kts with gusts up to 15kts-18kts to weaken tonight before increasing after 15Z FRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 78 67 79 / 0 10 20 70 MCO 61 79 65 81 / 0 20 0 20 MLB 68 81 70 82 / 0 20 20 40 VRB 68 83 69 83 / 10 40 20 40 LEE 59 79 62 80 / 0 10 0 20 SFB 61 80 64 81 / 0 10 10 40 ORL 61 80 65 81 / 0 10 10 20 FPR 67 82 69 83 / 10 40 20 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.