textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Two more colds fronts this morning and this evening bring the coldest temperatures yet this season, especially early Saturday and Sunday mornings over the interior when wind chills are forecast in the lower to mid-40s.

- The next chance for rainfall will be early to mid-week next week. However, there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. We are monitoring a low potential for heavy rainfall along the coast next week. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Today-Sunday...Dry and chilly. A large and complex low pressure system over and offshore the northeastern US associated with a substantial mid-upper level low will sweep a couple more fronts through Florida early this morning and again later tonight, delivering dry and actually cold air. Temperatures this morning are forecast to start in the M50s-M60s, then only warming to the 70s this afternoon. Winds shift from NW-WNW-NNW between the two fronts, increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph from the late morning to sunset. Tonight into Saturday morning, temperatures plunge into the M40s-M50s, the coldest of this snap. Overnight winds are forecast to generally remain 5-10 mph, which will offset radiational cooling by keeping the boundary layer mixed, but cause wind chills to dip into the L-M40s for all but the Space and Treasure Coasts, where the mildest temperatures are forecast. If winds go light and the boundary layer decouples, more effective radiational cooling could be realized cause temperatures to quickly fall a few more degrees than forecast. Afternoon temperatures Saturday only climb to the 60s, maybe approaching 70 along the southern coast. Winds more northerly and closer to 10 mph, but could still creep towards 15 mph at times, with gusts to around 20 mph again.

On Sunday the upper level pattern begins to shift east, sliding the broad mid-upper level low pressure system offshore the Atlantic coast, as ridging aloft from the Intermountain West moves towards the Central US. At the surface, high pressure dominates the Eastern US, with the southern flank settling over Florida. Winds turn back onshore (NE-ENE), advecting warmer air and gradually more moisture from the Atlantic. For most, Sunday morning will be nearly as chilly as Saturday morning with lows in the 40s only a couple degrees warmer and similar wind chills, but along the coast the warming trend will have already started with lows in the 50s. Afternoon highs Sunday return to the 70s. Winds speeds again generally around 10 mph with some higher gusts.

Monday-Thursday...Gradual warming and the return of rain chances. The upper air pattern will continue to slowly march east, taking the trough offshore into the Atlantic and bringing the ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS, helping to deepen the surface high stalled over the eastern US. The southern flank of the high will remain draped across the peninsula, continuing onshore (ENE) flow and advecting warm/moist air. The main driver for much of next week's weather will be a lobe or two of vorticity from the western US developing a surface disturbance while undercutting the ridge and sliding towards the Southeast and Gulf. There has been better agreement between models the last few runs for a wave or weak low pressure system to move into the Gulf and towards Florida while lifting higher moisture, but there is still some uncertainty in where the system will track and where the highest moisture will reach. Also, any southward deviation of the energy aloft towards the front stalled in the southern Gulf could result in a stronger low and greater impacts, like some models were suggesting yesterday. For now, onshore flow looks to pick up again with increasing moisture, bringing increasing chances for rain especially along the coast. Will need to monitor the threat for beach/coastal hazards and locally heavy rainfall, but these impacts are not a certainty yet.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions at times today through Saturday as a series of fronts continue to push through the local Atlantic waters. Northwest winds 15-20 kts across most of the waters early this morning from the first front briefly ease to 10-15 kts from the west in the afternoon, but then return to 15-25 kts from the northwest to north from late this evening into Saturday morning with the second front. Seas 2-5 ft, up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream today build to 3-7 ft tonight and Saturday morning. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued from 7 PM this evening through 11 AM Saturday morning for hazardous boating conditions associated with the second front. High pressure builds into the eastern US behind the front, with the southern flank settling across Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters Sunday into much of next week. Onshore (NE-ENE) winds diminish to 5-15 kts Sunday and seas settle to 2-4 ft. Conditions are poised to deteriorate again Monday as the high deepens, causing onshore winds to increase to 10-20 kts and seas build to 4-6 ft. Conditions may further deteriorate Tuesday, becoming hazardous to dangerous as a disturbance from the Gulf passes over or near the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

A strong cold front settles south of the area late this morning into this afternoon. Northwest winds around 10 knots persist through the period, and higher gusts will be possible at times. Dry, VFR conditions prevail today through tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Drier air filtering in behind two more fronts arriving early this morning and later this evening is forecast to reduce min RH values today to 35-45% from Brevard and Osceola northward, and 35-45% for most of the area Saturday (at or below 35% along and north of I-4). Winds today and Saturday are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph from late morning through sunset, then settle to 5-10 mph overnight. Wind direction shifts from NW this morning to WNW this afternoon, and back to NNW tonight and Saturday due to the multiple fronts. Moisture is forecast to increase again Sunday into early next week, as winds become onshore.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for Cocoa (COCF1), Geneva (GENF1), Sanford (SNFF1), and Astor (ASTF1) on the St. Johns. The river west of Cocoa is remains in Major Flood Stage with a slow rise forecast. The other points are within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid next week, but here is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any implications for ongoing flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 45 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 73 47 65 48 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 75 51 67 55 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 77 52 69 55 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 72 46 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 73 46 64 48 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 73 46 64 48 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 76 51 68 53 / 10 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.