textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Scattered rain and storms continue this weekend, along with seasonably hot temperatures and peak heat indices in the low 100s, staying just below Heat Advisory levels.

- A moderate risk for rip currents continues at east central Florida beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

- Temperatures closer to normal middle to latter part of next week as rain chances remain near to slightly above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Now-Tonight...Cumulus continues to build northward this afternoon, filtered by plenty of sunshine. Scattered showers and storms are well under way, emanating from the Space and Treasure Coasts, gradually shifting westward. The east coast breeze and individual outflow boundaries will help push convection inland through the afternoon and early evening hours. Storm motions will be erratic at times, and gusty winds (40 to 50 mph) may accompany the stronger storms. The overall risk for flooding is low, though poorly-drained and low-lying areas could briefly experience ponding of water where rain rates are high (15z XMR PW 2.33").

Based on radar and guidance trends, a sea breeze collision near/just west of the Orlando metro is likely after 5 PM, potentially making for a stormy evening commute. There could be some push back of rain/storms toward the coast (models are hinting at Melbourne southward) prior to dissipating around 10-11 PM. Overnight, rain and storms will stay focused over the Atlantic, with some activity brushing the Treasure Coast closer to daybreak Saturday. Temperatures remain mild tonight, ranging through the 70s.

Saturday-Sunday...Little change to the overall pattern is forecast this weekend as an upper level ridge axis stretches E-W across the state. Each day may start with isolated showers or a few storms offshore, approaching the Treasure/southern Space Coasts closer to daybreak. Light SE winds will be locally enhanced along the east coast breeze each afternoon as it drifts inland, sparking scattered showers and lightning storms. Subtle differences in CAM guidance may alter the exact timing/location of an afternoon/evening sea breeze collision each day. However, onshore flow both days favors a collision across interior locations. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, producing gusty, water-loaded downdraft winds at times. Temperature trends remain similar both days, reaching the low 90s in the afternoon and retreating into the 70s overnight. It will continue to feel quite muggy out there, and heat index values 100-106 degrees are forecast. Stay cool and hydrated, taking breaks out of the heat!

Monday-Friday...There are some changes on the way next week, moreso from Wednesday onward, as an upper ridge axis weakens over central Florida. The northern jet stream becomes more progressive to start the week with an H5 high building across the central and southern U.S. Monday-Tuesday. Tuesday into early Wednesday, models indicate upper level low pressure builds south and west along the Mid Atlantic/Carolina coast, eventually reaching this part of the state later Wednesday into Thursday. There is some uncertainty, namely if the elongated low pressure can organize into an upper low by Wednesday. Into Thursday and Friday, H5 low pressure retrogrades toward the Gulf underneath weak ridging to the north.

Surface high pressure expands southward on Tuesday and Wednesday, tightening the pressure gradient a bit. Monday's light onshore flow will strengthen in response by Tuesday and Wednesday, with NBE probabilities of 20+ mph winds around 30-40% at the coast Tuesday, expanding inland (40-50%+) Wednesday. There are still some glaring differences in available moisture advertised between the models beyond Tuesday, so this forecast maintains rain chances near or slightly above climatology. With the potential for an upper low overhead or nearby, and increased onshore flow, scattered showers and occasional storms look to continue next week. Above-normal temperatures settle closer to normals beyond Monday, with the exception of warmer overnight lows closer to the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Outside of scattered showers and storms, boating conditions will be generally favorable. Light onshore (SSE) flow continues each afternoon as the east coast breeze moves inland. Winds shift SSW overnight as a few storms continue over the local Atlantic. Gusty winds cannot be ruled out with more organized lightning storms. Seas 1-3 ft.

High pressure over the northeastern U.S. expands to the local Atlantic waters early next week, increasing onshore (ENE) winds. As a result, less favorable boating conditions are anticipated, especially from Tuesday onward. Occasional rain and lightning storms remain possible through the middle of next week. Seas build up to 4- 5+ ft late Tuesday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Sea breeze getting an extra push inland south of MCO due to earlier convection. Sea breeze/wind shift will occur at DAB by 20Z. The highest coverage of SHRA/TSRA is forecast over the interior this afternoon into early eve due to boundary collisions, including a sea breeze collision near LEE/ISM late in the day. Have upgraded PROB30 at MCO/SFB to TEMPO TS 19-23Z. On Sat, light south winds to start will turn onshore 10 knots at coastal terminals btwn 16Z-18Z with VCTS MLB-SUA. Inserted VCTS at MCO after 19Z Sat which will likely be upgraded to TEMPO in future TAF packages.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 90 75 90 / 20 50 20 50 MCO 76 92 76 92 / 30 60 20 70 MLB 77 90 76 90 / 20 50 20 60 VRB 75 89 74 89 / 30 50 20 70 LEE 76 92 76 92 / 20 60 20 60 SFB 76 92 76 92 / 20 60 20 60 ORL 77 91 77 91 / 30 60 20 70 FPR 75 89 74 89 / 30 50 20 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.