textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 112 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

- High Fire Danger this afternoon across east central Florida due to low RH values and gusty southwest winds.

- Near to above normal temperatures through early next week.

- Mostly dry today through Friday morning, with rain chances and potential for storms increases from Friday afternoon through Saturday with an approaching front.

- A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...High fire danger through this afternoon, especially across northern portions of the area, due to breezy southwesterly winds and dry air. Increasing cloud cover and the east coast sea breeze are limiting factors across the south. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for east central Florida. Warmer again today, with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. Breezy winds 10-15 mph with gusts near 20-25 mph will diminish this evening, then become light overnight since the ridge axis remains draped over the area.

Have included the potential for patchy fog late tonight into early Friday morning, though confidence is low, as models disagree on the chances for fog. They do agree, however, that the highest chances (20-50% for visibilities less than 3 miles depending on the guidance) are across the interior and southern portions of the forecast area. Use caution on the roads overnight, especially in the vicinity of any ongoing or recent fires. Tonight, lows remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s due to increased moisture. This moisture will also lead to a slight chance for a shower or two this evening along the coast south of Cape Canaveral, before lingering southeasterly winds from the earlier sea breeze veers offshore with the prevailing flow. PoPs around 20% overnight.

Friday-Saturday...A slow, weakening cold front will drop through the Southeast US Friday, then pass through central Florida into Saturday night. Early portions of the day on Friday are forecast to remain dry, with southwesterly flow 10-15 mph.

By the afternoon, increasing moisture and a passing shortwave will begin to introduce rain chances. Most CAMs suggest showers develop north and west of I-4 by 1-4 PM. CAPE is forecast to be modest the area, with more cloud cover and temperatures in the lower 80s, so lightning chances there remain below 15%. A later start is expected for areas to the south, with CAMs focusing development along the sea breeze in the late afternoon and into the evening hours. Lower cloud cover through peak daytime heating will allow temperatures to rise into the mid-80s for southern interior locations. The limiting factor for any storms in this area will also be the reason to monitor for a few strong storms. Lingering dry air above 800mb will support DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg for areas near Melbourne and south. Should any storms be able to survive this layer and utilize the sea breeze, they may be able to take advantage and produce strong wind gusts near 50 mph. This threat is very conditional, as is the threat for small hail due to 500mb temperatures near -12C and a quick spin up along a storm's collision with the sea breeze. PoPs 30-40% area-wide Friday.

Showers persist Friday night, as the front drops through north Florida and additional short waves traverse the state aloft. PoPs increase, as PWATs moisten to 1.5-1.6", becoming 50-70%. The highest chances are forecast near and north of Orlando, closest to the front. Thunderstorms will remain possible, though the strong storm threat is limited overnight. Lows in the lower to mid-60s. As the front slowly progresses southward on Saturday, multiple rounds of scattered to numerous showers with embedded storms are forecast. Increased CAPE and colder temperatures aloft at 500mb (-13 to -14C) could once again support a few strong storms in the afternoon, with small hail. PoPs 60-70% area wide on Saturday, with the highest chances moving southward through the day. Highs are forecast in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while Volusia County remains in the mid-70s with onshore flow. Scattered showers will continue to clear the area through Saturday night.

Rainfall totals continue to be tricky due to deviations between models and a lack of run to run consistency. The probability of at least 0.5" is now 60-80% area-wide Friday through Saturday and the chance for at least 1" is now 40-60%. Areas near and north of Melbourne now have a 20-30% chance of at least 2". Areas that see training showers and storms or any stronger storms could see locally higher amounts to 2-3".

Sunday-Thursday (modified previous)...Strong area of high pressure centered across the Great Lakes region will shift eastward into the northeast U.S. from Sunday into the middle portion of next week. This will lead to a developing onshore flow that will maintain the potential for isolated to scattered onshore moving showers into next week. However, rain chances remain on the lower end (around 20-30%) through this period. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal across the area from early to midweek.

MARINE

Issued at 112 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through early next week. The ridge axis present over the area today breaks down into Friday, as a weakening cold front approaches the local waters. Breezy southwesterly flow 10-15 kts in the mornings becomes south to southeast into the afternoon along the coast as the sea breeze develops. Isolated to scattered showers overnight will increase in coverage through Saturday as the front moves through the area. A few strong storms will be possible near the coast in the afternoons. Northerly winds behind the front remain under 15 kts through the period. Seas 2-3 ft.

High pressure then builds into the area late weekend and into early next week. Onshore flow prevails, with isolated to scattered showers and a few storms remaining possible. Winds stay 15 kts or less through Monday, before increasing to 15-25 kts Monday night into Tuesday as another front approaches the area but then stalls across north Florida. Seas 2-4 ft through Monday, then building to up to 6-9 ft by Tuesday afternoon, as swell enters the local waters.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. SW winds will gust near 20 knots ocnly at MCO/SFB/DAB. The east coast sea breeze has formed earlier than expected along the Treasure coast with an E/SE wind shift at VRB/FPR/SUA. Have moved up the wind shift at MLB to 1930Z. Winds will then become light south to southwest this evening/overnight. Isolated SHRA may impact southern terminals btwn 22Z-02Z. On Fri, SW wind flow around 10 knots will turn onshore behind the sea breeze at coastal terminals aft 17Z, though less likely at DAB. Have inserted a VCSH at MCO aft 21Z Fri as moisture increases from the Gulf.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 112 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

An Elevated to High Fire Danger will exist across the area this afternoon as south-southwest winds increase near 15 mph, with Min RH values dropping as low as 30-40 percent. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of east central Florida through 6 PM today. South to southwest winds up to 10-15 mph will continue into Friday, which will increase moisture across the area and is forecast to keep RH values above critical values. Rain chances will increase ahead of an approaching front from late Friday through Saturday as this boundary moves slowly through the region. PoPs increase from 30 to 40 percent Friday afternoon to 60-70 percent on Saturday. Some lightning storms will also be possible, with greatest potential for storms into Saturday afternoon. A few strong storms will be possible Friday afternoon along the coast south of Cape Canaveral and Saturday afternoon. Dispersion values will become Very Good to Excellent today and Friday, with control issues possible. By Saturday, high rain chances and lighter winds will lead to poor to fair dispersion.

Patchy fog will be possible across east central Florida tonight into early Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 56 80 59 73 / 10 40 70 70 MCO 60 84 64 76 / 10 40 70 70 MLB 59 81 61 76 / 20 40 70 70 VRB 59 81 61 79 / 20 40 60 70 LEE 58 81 61 76 / 10 30 70 70 SFB 59 82 62 76 / 10 40 70 70 ORL 60 81 63 77 / 10 40 70 70 FPR 58 82 60 80 / 20 40 60 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647- 747.

AM...None.