textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Breezy northwest winds and critically low RH values will lead to a High Fire Danger across the area today, with fire sensitive conditions persisting through midweek.

- Colder than normal temperatures will persist through early this week. Freezing temperatures and low wind chills forecast for much of the area tonight, with an increased potential for frost into Tuesday night.

- Hazardous boating conditions will continue across the coastal waters today into tonight, becoming poor to hazardous Tuesday.

- A High Risk for rip currents exists at area beaches today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Today-Tuesday...Colder and much drier air continues to filter into the area behind a cold front now south of Florida. Temperatures early this morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, with wind chill values in the upper 20s to low 30s. A Cold Weather Advisory continues through 9 AM this morning for much of the region, not including the immediate coast from southern Brevard southward or inland Martin County. Breezy NW winds will continue today, with sustained speeds around 15 to 20 mph and gusts between 25 to 35 mph. Highs will be around 15 degrees below normal in the mid to upper 50s, with near record cool highs forecast for some spots (see climate section below). The breezy NW winds, very dry airmass and ongoing drought conditions will lead to a High Fire Danger today.

Lowest temperatures associated with this cold spell forecast into tonight/early Tuesday morning, with a freeze expected for much of the area. The Freeze Watch that covered much of the region, except along much of the coast from Brevard County southward and all of Martin County has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning. Lows across this region are forecast to fall to or just below the freezing mark (upper 20s/low 30s), except Orlando metro area that may remain just above freezing. Near freezing temps will be possible for mainland coastal portions of southern Brevard, Indian River and St. Lucie counties, but not enough confidence to include in the Freeze Warning. Winds decrease to 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast into tonight, but will still produce low wind chill values in the 20s through early Tuesday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued as well for all of east central Florida for 2 AM to 9 AM Tuesday. Residents and visitors are advised to dress appropriately, practice space heater safety, bring pets indoors, and protect sensitive plants.

High pressure begins to build across the area Tuesday, with north- northwest winds around 5-10 mph. Highs will be a little higher than Monday, but still below normal in the 60s. Light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to favorable radiational cooling conditions Tuesday night, with temperatures falling quickly after sunset. Lows will again be much colder than normal, in the mid 30s to low 40s for much of east central FL. However, may see freezing temperatures occur once again across normally colder spots of northern Lake and inland Volusia counties and more rural inland areas south of Orlando. Regardless, these colder min temps and light winds will favor areas of frost development across much of the region, so residents will want to continue to protect sensitive vegetation.

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure shifts eastward into the Atlantic, with ridge axis remaining across FL. It will remain dry through midweek, with temperatures rising rather quickly as winds become S/SW. Highs return to near normal values (in the 70s) on Wednesday and then will be above normal (in the upper 70s to low 80s) for much of the area on Thursday. Lows will still be below normal Wednesday night with values in the 40s, but will then be mild in the upper 50s to low 60s Thursday night.

Friday-Sunday...Temperatures continue to warm through late week (as high as the low to mid 80s) and remain above normal into the weekend as a weak front approaches and eventually moves in near to north of the area and stalls. Moisture increases ahead of this approaching front, with rain chances returning to the forecast Friday and lingering through the weekend, providing some beneficial rainfall. PoPs will range around 40-50 percent both Friday and Saturday, decreasing to 20-30 percent on Sunday. There will be a modest increase in instability as well, which may allow for isolated storms at times.

MARINE

Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Today-Tuesday...Boating conditions will remain hazardous through today into tonight, and then will be poor to hazardous into Tuesday. Northwest winds around 25-30 knots will continue through early this morning. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard Counties for frequent gust to 35 knots, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the rest of the waters. A Small Craft Advisory will then continue for all of the waters from late this morning through tonight, as NW winds of 15-25 knots continue to build seas up to 7-12 feet today, falling to 6-10 feet into tonight. Winds and seas will continue to diminish into Tuesday, but the Small Craft Advisory will continue for the Gulf Stream waters through early Tuesday afternoon for lingering seas up to 7-8 feet.

Wednesday-Friday...Boating conditions become more favorable into much of mid to late week. High pressure building across the area through midweek will push offshore, with ridge axis remaining across the FL peninsula through Friday. Winds become S/SW around 5-15 knots for much of this timeframe, but are forecast to increase to 15-20 knots offshore into Thursday night, producing a brief period of poor boating conditions. Seas will range from 2-4 feet.

Dry conditions are forecast to continue through Thursday, but an increase in moisture and instability will lead to isolated to scattered showers and a few storms into Thursday night and Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1236 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Gusty VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Northwest winds have been a bit squirrelly tonight, as a few terminals have settled to less than 10 kts while a couple continue gusting 25-30 kts. TAFs generally fall in between at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts. Winds pick back up to 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts out of the northwest after 15Z, then begin to diminish after 22Z, becoming 10 kts or less late.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Critical fire weather conditions forecast across the area today, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for all of east central Florida from 9 AM this morning through 7 PM this evening. Breezy northwest winds, with sustained speeds around 15 to 20 mph and gusts between 25 to 35 mph will combine with Min RH values in the 20s to produce an heightened risk for wildfire development and spread today. High pressure will then build into the area through midweek, which will allow winds to decrease to around 5-10 mph both Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind direction will be out of the north-northwest Tuesday and then become south-southwest on Wednesday. However sensitive fire weather conditions continue as a very dry airmass will continue to produce Min RH values in the 20s to mid 30s across much of the area both days.

CLIMATE

Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Highs will be around 15 degrees colder than normal today, and there is a chance for max temps to tie or break record cool highs at a few spots. Greatest potential will be at Leesburg, Orlando and Fort Pierce.

Record Cool Highs for Today, February 23rd:

Site: Record Cool Highs Daytona 52 1989 Leesburg 57 1964 Sanford 50 1978 Orlando 54 1989 Melbourne 53 1939 Vero Beach 53 1978 Fort Pierce 60 1989

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 55 32 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 55 34 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 58 33 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 59 33 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 55 32 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 56 32 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 56 35 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 59 32 62 35 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-447-547-647.

Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447- 547-647-747.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575.

Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.