textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

- Isolated/scattered showers and storms through the week, especially south of Cape Canaveral. A slight increase in rain chances is forecast this weekend, areawide.

- A Moderate HeatRisk gradually expands across east central Florida, especially late week into the weekend; adequate hydration and breaks from the heat will be important for those spending time outdoors.

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Now-Tonight...Showers and scattered storms from this morning have continued into the early part of the afternoon along the Treasure Coast. This is where 1.6-1.7"+ PW exist, according to GOES-derived PW imagery. Farther north, mostly dry conditions continue with temperatures in the mid/upper 80s. CAMs are suggesting a gradual end to coastal rain/storms, transitioning activity toward the west FL coast late this afternoon and evening. However, model initialization has lagged behind what is being observed on radar, so trends will be monitored for coastal activity to linger a bit longer. East- southeast winds remain gusty, reaching 25 mph at times. Across the interior, wind speeds are forecast to decrease after sunset to 5-10 mph. Along the coast from the Cape southward, persistent easterly flow looks to keep winds elevated (10-15 mph) through the night. As a result, mid 70s are forecast along the Volusia/north Brevard coast while lows in the upper 70s are expected. Isolated coastal showers and occasional lightning strikes cannot be ruled out overnight, though chances are low (15-20%).

Tuesday-Sunday...Not a whole lot of change is expected to our overall setup from mid week into the Memorial Day weekend. Surface high pressure remains anchored well offshore over the Atlantic with an H5 ridge well north of Florida. There is a broad mid level low that rotates toward the ECFL coast Wednesday, helping to moisten 300- 500mb layer a bit more. It remains to be seen whether that will at all support any more shower/storm coverage, particularly at the coast. By the end of the week, this feature becomes rather disorganized while moving away from ECFL, toward the Bahamas. With continued ESE flow, rain chances that start the day at the coast will again end across the interior and west coast of FL. Precip chances increase modestly Friday into the weekend as moisture increases areawide. This update carries a 40-55% chance for showers and storms each afternoon, which is a slight downward trend from this morning's forecast (but closer to climo). H5 temps will be warming as well, so the primary concern with any stronger storm would be gusty winds.

High temperatures warm into the low 90s for much of the area after Thursday, with the coast remaining in the upper 80s behind the daily sea breeze. Gusts around 20-25 mph along and in the wake of the sea breeze are likely to continue as well. With additional moisture comes a higher heat index, forecast to reach the upper 90s to low 100s Friday-Sunday. Warm and muggy conditions each night will provide little relief around the clock, so at least a Moderate HeatRisk is forecast. For those considering beach plans this holiday weekend, a moderate to high risk of rip currents will continue as onshore winds persist. Always heed the advice of lifeguards! When red flags are flying, entering the water is strongly discouraged.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

East-southeast flow, gusty at times, remains through the week as high pressure remains anchored well offshore. Embedded in the onshore flow at times are isolated to scattered showers and storms, some of which contain frequent lightning and gusty winds around 30 kt. Outside of storms, seas may briefly build to 5 ft overnight but generally remain 2-4 ft through late week. Small craft should exercise caution, offshore south of the Cape and in the nearshore Treasure Coast waters tonight.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Breezy onshore flow (easterlies) will continue through the TAF period. A marginal uptick in moisture will allow a few showers to move off the Atlantic. Coastal terminals are favored for this activity. While instability exists, VCTS for such a long period would be too much of a broad brush. Will monitor and AMD with VCTS as necessary. MVFR conds will occasionally occur in the vicinity of showers.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

High pressure centered well offshore will help maintain east- southeasterly winds through the week and into the weekend. Sustained winds during the day of 10-20 mph with gusts around 25 mph are possible, along with briefly higher gusts embedded in showers or isolated lightning storms. The greatest chance for rain and storms will be south of the Cape, transitioning inland with the afternoon east coast sea breeze. However, many locations will remain dry. Recent dryness will prolong fire sensitive conditions, and any lightning strikes could lead to new fire starts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 75 86 74 87 / 20 20 10 20 MCO 73 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 30 MLB 77 85 77 86 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 77 87 77 87 / 20 20 10 20 LEE 72 90 72 90 / 0 30 10 30 SFB 73 89 72 90 / 10 20 10 30 ORL 73 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 30 FPR 76 86 76 86 / 20 20 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.