textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 243 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Gradually increasing moisture into the weekend and early next week will allow rain chances to slowly return to near to above normal values.

- Highs in the low to mid 90s will continue, with peak heat indices reaching 102-107F each afternoon, and potentially nearing Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Current-Tonight...Gradually increasing moisture from north to south, esp south of Orlando. ISOLD to SCT showers will push onto the coast early this morning, esp south of the Cape, with increasing coverage and intensity inland late morning/afternoon (mainly south of Melbourne). Highest PoPs 30-60% will favor southern Osceola and southern Brevard southward toward Lake Okeechobee and across the Treasure Coast. Chances typically less than 20% north of Melbourne. Initial storm steering from east to west 10-15 mph, but is forecast to gradually veer to out of the southeast thru the aftn. Primary storm impacts will be lightning strikes, gusty winds locally, and torrential downpours. Instability appears a bit limited with 500 mb temps only -4.5 to -5.5C. By early evening, most activity should be west of the Kissimmee River with mainly dry conditions overnight over land. Generally ERLY winds 6-12 mph (few higher gusts) during the day becoming light again in the evening.

Hot & humid with U80s to around 90F at the immediate coast and L90s inland, with some M90s near Orlando and north/west from here. Peak heat indices 100-107F with widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk areawide. Warm & muggy overnight with persistent lows in the 70s.

Sat-Sun...Deep moisture (PWATs increasing > 2") continues to take hold across ECFL areawide. A weak pressure gradient continues in place. There should be a well-defined sea breeze collision late each day across the east central FL peninsula. This will promote higher coverage than on Fri and further northward (30-60% - highest around Lake Okee). Storm steering flow will be lighter this weekend with likely erratic movement with stronger boundary collisions. Aside from main impacts of lightning strikes, gusty winds locally 40-55 mph, and torrential downpours; we may be better in line with needing to monitor any minor/nuisance flooding potential with a few cells. Light southerly winds Sat and light westerly winds Sun ahead of sea breeze development and slow push inland. Winds should fall to light/variable each night.

Max temps will be in the L-M90s each day, with U90s within play Sat aftn near/NW of I-4. Will continue to monitor for Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F for heat indices), otherwise values will continue 104-107F ahead of precip/sea breeze passage. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk (ISOLD Extreme) conditions will continue to impact those without adequate cooling and hydration. Lows continue in the 70s.

Mon-Thu...Weak high pressure ridging influence continues thru this period, though the axis remains south of central FL. A weak frontal boundary is forecast to drift south toward north FL near/past mid-week. Overall moisture remains fairly high thru the period surging northward mid-week along aforementioned front. Overall flow offshore, with late day boundary collisions focused across the eastern FL peninsula Mon and will see if the flow is too strong for the ECSB to even form Tue-Thu, though this remains far enough out with lower confidence just yet. See no change in the diurnal SCT-NMRS (40-70%) shower-storm pattern. Highs continue in the L-M90s with peak heat indices continuing to average 102-107F each afternoon ahead of sea breeze/storms. Will continue to monitor as portions of ECFL could flirt with Heat Advisory criteria.

MARINE

Issued at 243 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Thru Tue...The Atlc ridge axis influence will remain weak into next week, but should stay north of the area today, then begin to slide southward on Sat remaining south of the local waters Sun-Tue. Boating conditions will remain mostly favorable during this time with winds generally AOB 15 kts as the pgrad remains weak. ERLY winds today with winds more predominantly offshore Sun-Tue, but will witness sea breeze formation each day thru at least Mon with winds "backing" onshore near the coast and perhaps more southerly over the open Atlc during the day. Seas mainly 1-3 ft.

Increasing shower/lightning storm potential this weekend and early next week as moisture surges into the area. Could begin to see offshore-moving convection this weekend into early next week. Winds and seas locally higher invof convection.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 658 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are forecast from TIX southward today. Have kept mostly VCSH wording with a short window of VCTS mentioned at MLB and the Treasure Coast terminals around the time of the east coast sea breeze. There is lower confidence for a shower or storm in vicinity of ISM/MCO this afternoon while a sharp moisture gradient should keep areas further north dry. Light easterly winds increase to around 8-10 kts as the sea breeze moves inland through the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 75 94 77 / 0 0 30 20 MCO 95 76 97 78 / 10 10 30 30 MLB 90 77 91 77 / 20 10 30 10 VRB 90 76 92 75 / 30 10 50 10 LEE 96 77 95 79 / 0 0 40 20 SFB 94 76 96 78 / 0 0 40 20 ORL 95 77 96 79 / 10 0 30 30 FPR 90 76 92 75 / 40 10 50 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.