textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

- A brief respite from frost and freeze conditions tonight and Friday night with near seasonable high temperatures Friday around 70F.

- Rare, Significant Arctic Cold Outbreak Arrives Saturday Night. The current forecast calls for low temperatures in the 20s, along with wind chills in the teens, both Sunday and Monday mornings.

- Windy conditions develop Saturday afternoon and night with high chance of peak wind gusts 35 to 45 mph. Dangerous Gale conditions are forecast to develop over the Atlantic waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Today-Fri...High pressure maintains a mostly dry weather pattern with a slow warming trend. Wind flow turns NE today and max temps climb a few degrees from yesterday yet remaining below normal in the 60s under mostly sunny skies. No freeze concerns tonight as temps hold in the 40s except upper 30s far NW with patchy frost. Some moisture will get pulled northward Fri and bring a small shower chance to the Treasure coast, otherwise dry with near seasonable temperatures for a change around 70/low 70s. This warming trend will be short-lived, however.

Sat-Wed...Broad area of low pressure is forecast to form very close to Florida Fri night before lifting into the Atlantic and developing into a nor'easter. As it passes by early Saturday, rain chances have lowered especially across the north (now 20%) while still carrying 30-40% south of Orlando. Rainfall amounts look quite meager, less than one tenth /0.10/ of an inch. By late Sat morning and into the afternoon, a cold front passes through the area. The initial impact will be a burst of strong west- northwest winds. Forecast model soundings remain consistent showing peak wind gusts from 35-45 mph for Saturday late afternoon and evening as the low pressure rapidly deepens offshore.

Winds veer slightly more out of the northwest on Saturday night, pushing Arctic air down the peninsula with little to no Gulf modification as parcel trajectories originate from the Panhandle and points north. Daily record lows are anticipated on Sunday morning. An additional freeze/hard freeze anticipated on Monday morning. Temperatures only slowly moderate with another freeze Tue morning over the interior.

Extreme cold risks have remained consistent over the last several updates:

SUNDAY AM: There is a 60-90% chance of a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) on Sunday morning for all areas except Martin County (20-50%). Much of east central Florida currently has a 70-90% chance of wind chills in the teens with single digit wind chills north of Orlando.

MONDAY AM: The risk for a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) is 50-80% for many locations, except the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts where the probabilities are somewhat lower (30-60%). Bitterly cold wind chills are expected to persist, though with lighter winds (upper teens-mid 20s).

As mentioned above, another round of very cold temperatures is forecast on Tuesday morning.

For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport.

With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event now likely, residents, officials, and agricultural operations should begin considering how to prepare. Those with inadequate shelter or heat will be most affected. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non- native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected.

High temperatures on Sunday should hold in the 40s Orlando northward and only reach the lower 50s south of Melbourne despite full sunshine. A gradual (slow) warming trend commences next week with max temps returning to the 60s Tue and lower 70s Wed.

MARINE

Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

High pressure nudges eastward today across the SE US. Briefly enhanced N/NW winds this morning will decrease this afternoon and a period of improved conditions is forecast as the high sits nearly overhead late Today into Friday. Low pressure is then expected to form offshore NE Florida by early Sat, and rapidly deepen becoming a strong nor'easter as it moves up the Eastern Seaboard. Dangerous Gale conditions are anticipated by Saturday night in the wake of this storm. High pressure center will move east across the deep South Sunday and Monday and reach the Florida peninsula Tuesday.

NW winds 15 kt this morning will become N this afternoon and decrease near 10 knots. Light and variable winds early Fri will become west to southwest 5-10 knots ahead of the front, increasing by Saturday morning to 15-20 kt. Conditions will deteriorate further during Sat with sustained Gale-force winds arriving by Saturday eve. Conditions remain hazardous Sunday with Advisory criteria then a more noticeably improvement Mon and esp Tue.

Seas generally 3 ft nearshore today up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream this morning. Seas 2-3 ft on Friday, building rapidly by Saturday afternoon 7-9 ft offshore and 4-6 ft nearshore. Fully developed seas of 14-16 ft are forecast in the Gulf Stream Sat night/early Sun with sustained Gale conditions and wind gusts approaching Storm-force. Seas will be slow to subside as north wind component persists (albeit decreasing) early next week which should keep seas 7-9 ft Mon in the Gulf Stream.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 616 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Northwester to northerly winds 5-10 kts this morning shift northeasterly by the early afternoon, then becoming light/VRB from this evening through Friday morning, settling from the west at 5-10 kts Friday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

A developing onshore (NE) wind flow today up to 10 mph will push the lowest RH values deeper over the interior, reaching near 30 percent west of Orlando. Moisture increases Friday and Friday night ahead of a very strong cold front but only isolated to scattered showers are forecast Friday night and early Saturday. Winds will be light Friday, less than 10 mph, becoming westerly ahead of the front. Strong and gusty winds are forecast to develop Saturday afternoon behind the cold front as low pressure deepens off the Southeast US coast. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph are forecast Saturday afternoon and night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 61 45 69 46 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 65 46 71 50 / 0 0 0 20 MLB 65 49 71 47 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 67 49 71 47 / 0 0 20 10 LEE 63 43 70 46 / 0 0 0 30 SFB 64 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 20 ORL 64 46 70 50 / 0 0 0 20 FPR 68 48 71 47 / 0 0 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-144.

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ141-247-254- 547.

AM...None.