textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Patchy fog possible in a few spots early this morning.

- Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will push quickly northeast across the area today ahead of an approaching cold front, with dry conditions then forecast mid to late week behind the front. - Poor to hazardous boating conditions forecast ahead of the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Current-Tonight...While we do carry some patchy fog in the grids/zones, not crazy about those prospects as southerly 20 kt 925 mb winds are forecast to increase 25-35 kts by sunrise. This would tend to favor low stratus over fog. Low pressure over the northern Gulf will race northeastward across the southeast U.S. through the day, dragging a cold front into north-central FL this evening, finally through the remainder of ECFL overnight. Scattered showers and perhaps a few lightning storms will precede the front during the day, with most of the convection ending across land by around sunset as showery precip shifts offshore. PoPs at 40-50pct Osceola northward, with 30pct across the coast and 20pct for Martin County. Due to the elevated wind fields, primary impacts will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty to strong wind gusts (40-55 mph) locally, and brief downpours. Activity should be fairly quick moving at 30 to 40 mph from southwest to northeast. Instability remains only marginal for this event. The pressure gradient will be rather tight today with breezy SWRLY surface winds of 15-20 mph and frequent higher gusts - up to 30-35 mph at times.

Skies partly to mostly cloudy as highs remain several degrees above normal in the L-M80s (pre-frontal). Behind the front overnight lows will sink into the M50s north/west of I-4 with near 60F to L60s southward. Barrier islands likely to realize M60s for mins. W/NW winds will gradually wind down to 5-10 mph during the evening and overnight as the pgrad relaxes.

Wed-Fri...Surface high pressure builds into the Deep South and mid Atlc states behind the latest front. Conditions remain dry during this period. NW/N winds give way to an onshore component Wed overnight-Thu overnight with light winds resulting. The winds continue to veer to S/SW into Fri/Fri night. The next potential weather maker will, again, evolve across the western Gulf with low pressure tracking across the northern Gulf late Thu/Fri. This should drag another cold front into the FL Panhandle/north FL by sunrise Sat morning as increasing moisture pools ahead of and along this next system.

Closer to seasonal highs on Wed (post-frontal) with maxes in the L70s across I-4 and M-U70s southward. A warming trend slowly gains traction on Thu with highs in the M-U70s, except L70s for coastal Volusia. U70s to L80s prevail Fri and perhaps a few M80s surrounding Lake Okee. For mins, a chilly night Wed night/Thu morning in the U40s to around 50F N/W of I-4 with L-M50s most everywhere else, except U50s and a few L60s for coastal south Brevard and E of I-95 along the Treasure Coast. For Thu overnight/Fri morning - 50s and L60s (coast), and generally 60s areawide Fri overnight/Sat morning.

Sat-Mon...The GFS now holds up the next front above central FL finally dragging it thru during the day on Sun. For the ECMWF, it appears to bring the front across the coverage warning area Sat overnight into early Sun. Regardless of eventual solution, moisture increases across the area this weekend with PoPs of 30-40pct on Sat during the day north of a Melbourne-Kenansville line, with 10-20pct PoPs southward. Generally 30-40pct Pops almost areawide Sat night, then near 40pct for Sun. Isold thunder cannot be ruled out, but we have yet to include this mention in the grids/zones. The NBM keeps a small PoP in for Mon (for now) and this may depend on how quickly moisture is able to scour out. Highs look to remain above normal in the U70s/L80s for Sat and will likely fall back into the 70s (post-frontal) for Sun, with a cooling trend continuing into Mon - U60s to L70s for maxes. Lows in the U50s to L60s Sat night/Sun morning, and generally 50s most everywhere Sun night/Mon morning.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Today-Tonight...Going to be breezy/gusty today (pre-frontal) with S/SW winds increasing 15-20 kts, except 20-25 kts offshore with frequent higher gusts (25-30 kts) areawide. The front will be preceded this afternoon and evening by fast, and offshore-moving (SW --> NE) scattered showers, with isolated lightning storms possible. Due to the increasing wind field just above the surface, wind gusts could approach 35-45 kts in storms later today. Occasional cloud-to-water lightning strikes and brief downpours are additional threats. The cold front will move through later this evening and overnight, with veering W/NW winds diminishing to 10-15 kts ahead of daybreak Wed morning. Small Craft Advisories will go into effect early this morning over the offshore marine legs and near shore Volusia coast. Advisories scale back late this afternoon and evening. Everywhere else will carry Cautionary Statements for small craft. Initial seas of 3-5 ft areawide will build 5-7 ft offshore and 4-5 ft near shore. As the winds are fairly quick to decrease later this evening and overnight so are the seas, as they subside to 3-5 ft again by daybreak Wed morning.

Wed-Sat...Winds/seas, both, become favorable from mid-late week as northerly (~ 10 kts) winds on Wed veer onshore by Thu becoming southerly by late Fri and SWRLY by Fri night/Sat. The pgrad may tighten a bit Fri night/Sat. Seas will quickly subside to 2-4 ft late Wed into Fri, but may increase to 5 ft well offshore Cape northward Fri night/Sat. Generally dry Wed-Fri, but may see some precip chances creep back into the picture Fri night-Sat as moisture increases ahead of the next approaching front for later in the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Light and variable to calm winds across the terminals early this morning along with building cloud coverage. Around 12Z, winds are forecast to pick up out of the SW ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind speeds continue to increase through the day, with peak gusts up to 25 knots possible. VCSH and VCTS will be possible ahead of and immediately along the front, starting around 15Z across the interior terminals and anywhere between 15 to 17Z along the coast. Left out TEMPOs for now but will monitor need for them. Right now, uncertainty still continues relative to coverage near the terminals. Conditions improve around 00Z as VCSH and VCTS comes to an end and winds subside out of the W around 5 to 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 82 57 71 53 / 30 10 0 0 MCO 82 61 74 54 / 40 10 0 0 MLB 83 62 76 57 / 30 10 0 0 VRB 84 63 77 57 / 30 10 0 0 LEE 81 56 71 51 / 50 10 0 0 SFB 82 59 73 52 / 40 10 0 0 ORL 81 60 73 54 / 40 10 0 0 FPR 84 62 78 57 / 30 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ570-572.