textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Daily afternoon shower and storm development is forecast across east central Florida through this weekend and into next week.

- Storm hazards today will include frequent to excessive lightning, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3".

- Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Current-Tonight... Isolated to scattered convection has been able to overcome dry air across west central Florida late this morning and through early this afternoon with some activity already moving into interior portions of east central Florida. Based on these trends, healthy development of scattered cu, and more recent aggressive runs of the high-res guidance, have nudged up rain chances across the local area through this evening (~40-50%). The highest coverage is generally forecast along collisions with the east coast sea breeze across portions of Okeechobee, Osceola, eastern Orange, Brevard, and eastern Volusia. Up to this point, drier air seems to have suppressed updraft height and intensity. However, continued surface heating and future boundary collisions may allow a few updrafts to punch further through the dry layer, and stronger storms that can develop will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts of 40-55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours. Expect coverage to diminish from west to east through late afternoon and into the evening with dry conditions forecast overnight. Low temperatures mostly fall into the mid 70s.

Sunday-Monday... A mid to upper level trough persists over the eastern U.S. on Sunday before gradually lifting northeastward on Monday. Light offshore flow continues through late this weekend, turning out of the south on Monday as the western Atlantic high transitions northward and settles over the central Florida peninsula. Some uncertainty still exists in rain chances on Sunday as drier air is modeled within the layer from 850-500mb. However, a passing shortwave aloft looks to provide enough localized moisture and energy to support a mention of isolated to scattered rain chances (20-40%) across portions of east central Florida Sunday afternoon and evening. Shortwave energy broadens and mostly dissipates by Monday with the drier air then limiting rain chances mostly below 20-30% for much of the area. Cold temperatures aloft (~ -7C @ 500mb), high DCAPE (900+ J/kg), and efficient surface heating will continue support for a few strong storms, particularly on Sunday. Strong storms which develop will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts 40-55mph, heavy downpours, and small hail. Outside of showers and storms, hot temperatures persist in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values ranging 102-107F.

Tuesday-Friday... A broadening trough pattern will support a series of mid-level shortwaves over the eastern U.S. next week. High pressure will persist at the surface with a ridge axis draped over central Florida. Light southerly flow may often become variable early each day before the sea breeze shifts winds onshore each afternoon. Drier air persists on Tuesday, with PWATs increasing closer to seasonal values mid to late week. This should result in slightly below normal rain chances (20-40%) Tuesday, shifting closer to normal (40-60%) from Wednesday onward. Coverage should follow diurnal trends initiated by surface heating and boundary collisions. Temperatures are forecast to hold near to slightly above normal reaching the low to mid 90s each day, and humidity will allow peak heat index values to exceed 100F through the extended forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Favorable boating conditions continue outside of storms. High pressure across the south Florida waters through late this weekend lifts northward and settles across the central Florida waters on Monday. Prevailing light offshore flow (southwest) continues through Sunday, turning south to southeast as the sea breeze develops. Prevailing flow then shifts out of the south Monday and through much of the upcoming week, still turning onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas hold mostly 1-2 ft, briefly increasing to 3 ft offshore early Sunday. Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms in the afternoon and evenings will be capable of frequent to excessive lighting, wind gusts to 34 kts or greater, and locally higher seas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 113 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Light southwesterly flow and ample moisture should combine for scattered to numerous (40-60%) storms today. Focus of highest coverage appears to be for the MCO/Orlando and Daytona terminals, and perhaps TIX/MLB. Timing for storms looks a bit earlier today, with TEMPOs for MCO beginning at 19Z. Some guidance is a bit earlier than this; will monitor trends. Activity lingers latest from MLB to SUA in the early evening before pushing offshore. As with recent days, brief IFR/LIFR and wind gusts exceeding 35 kt will be the primary risks from storms this afternoon and evening. Sea breeze remains pinned at the coast, with terminals from MLB southward briefly turning SE in the afternoon up to 10 kt.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 91 75 92 75 / 60 10 10 10 MCO 93 76 95 76 / 50 20 20 10 MLB 94 76 93 77 / 40 20 20 10 VRB 93 75 92 75 / 30 20 20 10 LEE 90 75 94 75 / 60 10 20 10 SFB 92 75 94 76 / 60 10 20 10 ORL 92 76 94 77 / 50 20 20 10 FPR 94 75 92 75 / 30 20 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.