textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast: Avoid flooded roads, and do not walk or wade through floodwater!

- Only low rain chances (around 20%) next several days so most areas will remain dry. High temperatures will remain very warm through Friday reaching the mid 80s. A dry cold front will push through Saturday and bring somewhat cooler temperatures.

- Excessive rainfall over the upper St Johns River basin earlier this week is sending a considerable volume of water north through the basin. A prolonged river flood event is ongoing along the Saint Johns River with conditions likely worsening before improvement occurs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Today-Fri...A weak cool front pushing into the southeast U.S. will shift the Atlc ridge axis across our area and produce a light wind flow. E/NE winds today of 5-10 mph become more variable Friday with an afternoon sea breeze developing along the coast. Mostly rain-free conditions forecast through late week though isolated showers should develop over interior sections each afternoon. The low rain chances will help floodwaters to gradually recede across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. However, residents and visitors should continue to avoid any flooded roadways and remain out of any lingering floodwaters.

Highs will remain warmer than normal in the mid 80s today and Friday with peak heat indices in the lower 90s.

Sat-Wed...A weak cool front is still forecast to push through central Florida Saturday. Limited moisture with this boundary means it will likely be a dry frontal passage. A wind shift out of the N/NW will announce its passage. Winds gradually veer N/NE Sun and NE Mon as high pressure builds in behind this boundary. The GFS has backed off on the amplitude of its cut-off low across the deep South and now shows it opening up into a trough as it crosses FL Wed. This is trending toward the ECMWF solution which both now show low rain chances Mon-Tue (20%) with the best chance for showers on Wed (30%). Given the weaker upper support, severe weather looks unlikely and currently do not have thunder mentioned. Temperatures trend cooler this weekend behind the front though Sat still looks warm in the low to mid 80s. Near normal highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s Sun-Tue. Min temps forecast in the upper 50s NW of I-4 early next week with 60s elsewhere.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

High pressure ridge axis will settle over the area the next couple days and result in a lighter wind flow of 5-10 knots. Not much of a wind chop but an ENE swell around 4 FT today will build to 5 FT Fri and will be the primary contribution to wave height. Swell periods around 8 seconds today will lengthen to 9-10 seconds Fri. A dry cool front is forecast to push across the area Saturday producing a wind shift out of the N/NW 10-15 knots and seas building to 6 FT offshore. Wind flow veers N/NE Sun and NE on Mon at similar speeds of 10-15 knots. The combination of wind wave and swell will produce poor to hazardous boating conditions esp in the Gulf Stream.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 627 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR conditions prevailing. Light winds become generally easterly through late morning, but remain below 10 kts. A few showers are possible near and west of MCO/ISM/SFB this afternoon, but coverage is expected to be low, so have forgone mention of VCSH at this time. Otherwise, dry conditions continue. Winds return to light and variable after 0Z.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

River flood warnings are in effect for all St Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise the next several days through Minor and in some cases Moderate Flood stage. The river at Cocoa (COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage later this week with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage early next week. River forecasts are issued twice per day by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 84 67 84 66 / 10 0 20 10 MCO 86 68 86 69 / 10 0 20 10 MLB 83 70 84 68 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 85 70 85 68 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 86 69 86 67 / 20 10 20 10 SFB 87 68 87 67 / 10 0 20 10 ORL 86 68 86 68 / 10 0 20 10 FPR 84 69 84 68 / 10 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.