textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Marginal Risk with strong to severe storms are forecast late this afternoon and evening with the potential for damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, small hail, and a less than 2% tornado risk

- A High Risk of rip currents exists at all east central Florida beaches through Thursday; boating conditions deteriorate rapidly on Wednesday

- Rain chances shift south with a "cool" front from Wednesday onward, accompanied by drier and cooler air through Thursday, before another warming trend into next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Tonight-Wednesday... KMLB radar imagery shows mostly dry conditions over east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate scattered to broken cumulus clouds moving east across the Florida Peninsula. Analysis charts show a cold front over the southeastern US which extends from weak low pressure (~1013mb) near the NC and VA coasts. Meanwhile, high pressure (~1017mb) is situated over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers (50-80%) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the late afternoon and evening hours as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with weak west-northwest flow. The 15Z XMR sounding shows ML CAPE at 1,500 J/kg, MUCAPE at 3,500 J/kg, PW at 1.63in, and 0-6km shear at 26kts, however low and mid level lapse rates are rather low at 5.8C/km-6.4c/km coupled with 500mb temperatures at -7.8C which suggests that large hail is unlikely. Additionally, an MDPI value of 1.1 is supportive of strong downdrafts.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening, mainly between 3pm-10pm. The hazards of concern are damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% chance), frequent lightning, heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 60 minutes), and small hail. Additionally, there a brief tornado cannot be ruled out (less than 2% chance). The greatest potential for a tornado is over Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties, as well as eastern Seminole and eastern Orange counties where CAMS indicate 0-3km SRH between 200-500 m^2/s^2, as well as 3km EHI between 1-3 coupled with MLCAPE between 1,500 J/kg-2,500 J/kg and 0-6km shear between 20-45kts. Scattered to numerous east moving showers (50-80%) and lightning storms are forecast into this evening. West-northwest winds at 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph are forecast to veer onshore into the late afternoon and evening. Rain chances will persist into the overnight before gradually diminishing into Wednesday morning.

Scattered showers (20-50%) and lightning storms are forecast on Wednesday as a "cool" front slowly moves south over east central Florida. The main hazards will be wind gusts to 40-50mph, occasional to frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and small hail. Drier conditions are expected into late week. Breezy east-northeast winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph are forecast. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast with mostly cloudy skies. There are no critical RH concerns.

Thursday-Monday... Drier conditions are forecast late week and into the weekend behind the front as high pressure (1020-1026mb) builds over the southeastern US. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast on Thursday (mainly over the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county on Thursday, much of ECFL on Friday, and portions of east central Florida on Saturday) before rain chances (20-40%) increase over all of east central Florida on Sunday. Easterly winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast through Friday. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast to gradually increase into the weekend before reaching the mid 80s to low 90s on Sunday and Monday. Lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s are forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Tonight-Wednesday... There is a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms tonight over the nearshore waters. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast this evening and into Wednesday as a "cool" front sags south over the southern Atlantic waters into Wednesday afternoon. The main hazards are strong wind gusts in excess of 34kts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Winds are expected to turn onshore overnight into Wednesday at 15-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts. Seas are expected to rapidly build Wednesday morning which is when a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect from north to south throughout the day. Seas to 5-7ft nearshore and 7-10ft offshore and over the Gulf Stream are expected.

Thursday-Saturday... . Drier conditions with isolated showers and lightning storms are expected on Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds over the southeastern US. East-northeast winds to 15-25kts are forecast with gusts to 25-30kts. Seas are expected to build from north to south through the day on Wednesday with heights to 5-8ft nearshore and 7-10ft offshore (20-60nm) and over the Gulf Stream. Winds diminish on Thursday from the east at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Seas gradually diminish to 4-6ft nearshore and 5-7ft over the Gulf Stream on Thursday. There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect through Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 755 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Low confidence when/if TS will impact ECFL terminals through 03Z. HRRR insists on developing additional TS on boundaries INVOF KMCO and other inland terminals, which then push southeastward towards the coastal terminals, but current radar trends are less optimistic. Hedged with PROB30 at KMCO and area terminals, and VCTS along the coast. Lower then expected TS coverage INVOF inland terminals has allowed an outflow enhanced sea breeze to shift winds easterly around 15 kts with higher gusts. Winds diminish in the next few hours. SHRA/TSRA chances continue through the overnight as a weak front pushes south. MVFR CIGs will accompany the frontal passage, arriving late tonight and lingering into Wednesday. Windy/gusty Sunday as winds increase to 15-20 kts with gusts approaching 30 kts from the NE behind the front. Gradual southward clearing late in the day Sunday behind the front, but winds will persist late into the evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 72 81 70 82 / 70 10 0 0 MCO 72 81 68 82 / 70 30 0 0 MLB 73 82 73 83 / 60 40 10 10 VRB 72 82 72 82 / 60 40 10 20 LEE 72 82 68 84 / 70 10 0 0 SFB 72 83 68 84 / 70 20 0 0 ORL 72 82 69 83 / 70 30 0 0 FPR 72 81 72 82 / 60 40 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ572.