textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Turning even hotter today, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak heat index values nearing Heat Advisory criteria (108-110 degrees), especially near to north of Orlando. - Hot and muggy conditions continue the rest of the week and into the holiday weekend, with peak heat indices 100-107F each afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast each day.

- Increasing moisture with an approaching front will lead to a rise in rain and storm chances through at least mid-week, with shower and storm coverage remaining near to above normal through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Current-Tonight...Mid-level ridging centered over the Tennessee & Mississippi Valleys will slowly transition north toward the Ohio Valley. At the surface, weak high pressure ridging continues across the south-central FL peninsula. Weak low pressure will develop off of the Carolinas and slowly move southeast. An associated weak surface boundary will also slide south moving into north FL late in the period. Light/variable winds will transition onshore along the coast late this morning and early afternoon as the ECSB develops and pushes well inland with late day/early evening boundary collisions across the interior. ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection will develop along the ECSB by early afternoon with both coverage and intensity increasing into the interior thru late day/evening. Primary storm impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, locally gusty winds of 35- 50 mph, and torrential downpours. Due to the slow/erratic movement of cells, minor/nuisance flooding will remain one of the biggest storm concerns. Quick 2-3" amounts may occur with a few storms late today and will be handled with Flood Advisories as necessary. Convection will diminish into mid-late evening, with skies thinning overnight.

Today will probably be the hottest day of the week. L90s are forecast along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts, with M-U90s most everywhere else. Highest readings likely near/north of I-4. As such, will hoist a Heat Advisory for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and north Brevard counties from 12PM to 7PM this evening. Temperatures combined with high humidity will drive peak heat indices to 106-109F within the Advisory. Peak heat indices outside of the Advisory will climb to 102-107F. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk expected. If you are planning to spend time outdoors, take plenty of breaks in the shade or A/C and stay well-hydrated to avoid heat-related fatigue/illness. Never leave pets or children in vehicles unattended! Warm & humid at night with lows in the L-U70s.

Tue-Wed...The Atlc ridge axis shifts south of the area as a weak front continues to shift south becoming quasi-stationary near the area on Tue. Weak low pressure along this front will shift well offshore the southeast U.S. coast thru midweek. Pieces of shortwave energy will spin clockwise around the mid-level high pressure across the Ohio Valley/Appalachia. On Tue, SCT-NMRS (50- 70%) showers and storms will develop across our northern CWA (closest proximity to the front) and spread southward during the day. While the steering flow is out of the north, the ECSB will develop and gradually take activity deeper into the interior during the afternoon and early evening. A few stronger storms will continue to be possible, with similar hazards of strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Deeper onshore flow develops on Wed with lowest rain chances across coastal Volusia/Brevard (20-30%) and higher chances southward and into the interior (30-80%).

Temps slightly cooler on Tue L-M90s, with increased cloud-cover and precip, but still warm & humid and presently keeping conditions below Advisory criteria but will continue to monitor. For Wed, U80s to around 90F at the coast and L90s inland. Peak heat indices still 102-107F for most. Persistent warm and humid overnight with mins in the 70s.

Thu-Sun...The weak low pressure off of the southeast U.S. continues to weaken as conditions become less favorable for any development in the extended. Light onshore flow becomes light southerly with PWATs rebounding back upward across ECFL. A daily ECSB is forecast pushing inland each afternoon. Storm steering becomes light southerly as well, but expect erratic movement at times of storms due to various and strong aftn/evening boundary collisions. Temperatures aloft are relatively warm but with deep moisture and daytime heating, should still muster SCT to locally NMRS storm coverage diurnally. Summertime in FL continues with max temps in the L90s and ISOLD M90s also possible. Peak heat indices still in the 102-107F range each afternoon. Overnight lows remain warm with conditions humid.

MARINE

Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Thru Fri...Generally favorable boating conditions continue as light S/SSW flow turns onshore each afternoon along the coast with the east coast sea breeze. With a weak pressure gradient in place, winds generally 7-12 kts or less with seas 2-4 ft (up to 5 ft well offshore north of the Cape briefly midweek). Winds will turn onshore mid-late week behind a weak frontal boundary. Late night/early morning showers and isolated lightning storms will transition inland during the afternoon and early evening hours, though some pushback of evening storms could occur early this week as storm motion remains slow/erratic. Winds/seas locally higher invof storms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Light and variable winds continue through this morning. Shower and storm coverage increases after 17Z, with VCTS/VCSH at all terminals. PROB30s across the interior terminals between 19-23Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Conditions will improve areawide after 00Z, with mostly dry conditions and light winds overnight. Rain and storm chances increase late Tuesday morning ahead of a weak boundary drifting southward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 95 77 91 77 / 40 20 50 20 MCO 97 77 94 76 / 60 20 70 20 MLB 93 77 91 79 / 30 10 60 30 VRB 93 76 93 77 / 10 10 60 30 LEE 96 79 93 77 / 60 30 70 20 SFB 97 78 94 77 / 50 20 70 10 ORL 96 78 93 77 / 60 20 70 20 FPR 92 75 93 77 / 10 10 60 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.