textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Unseasonably warm Saturday with near-record highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A HIGH risk of life threatening rip currents continues. Always swim near a life-guarded beach and never enter the water alone.

- A strong cold front will bring medium (40-50%) rain chances Sunday followed by sharply colder and much drier air. Critical fire weather conditions may develop Sunday afternoon for northern sections and will develop areawide Monday.

- Unseasonably cold low temperatures Mon-Wed mornings with frost/freeze concerns. Coldest wind chills will occur Mon night/Tue morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Today-Saturday... Upper level high pressure near the Bahamas and expanding over the Florida peninsula will stay in place through Saturday. Surface high pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to build the axis over Florida through the period. Locally, southwest wind flow will persist with speeds around 10 mph or less each day. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon and push inland. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal for this time of year through Saturday, with temperatures near record highs both days. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s both days, with plenty of sunshine. Daily record highs have already been reached or broken today at Daytona, Leesburg, Melbourne, Orlando, and Sanford (see below). Overnight lows both nights will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, possibly reaching mid 60s in the Orlando Metro area. Patchy fog will once again be possible across all of east central Florida late tonight into Saturday morning.

Sunday-Monday...Upper level low pressure across the eastern edge of the Midwest on Sunday will shift eastward towards the Atlantic coast before moving northward along the NE US coast on Monday. At the surface, a closed low along the coast of NC/VA will drag a trailing strong cold front across east central Florida on Sunday as it moves northward along the NE coast. Surface high pressure will then move from TX/LA into the Gulf on Tuesday, with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. Locally, drier air will move in behind the front, with forecast PW values ranging from 0.8-1.5" ahead of the front to 0.1-0.2" behind the front. The front will also bring back rain chances to east central Florida, although rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25". There is a medium (50-60 percent) chance of showers across the whole area on Sunday. Forecast soundings show limited instability, so lightning storm chances remain low at this time. However, the greatest potential for lightning storms will be along the coast from Melbourne southward.

West to southwest winds around daybreak on Sunday will veer northwest and become breezy to gusty behind the front. Northwest winds will remain around 10-15 mph Sunday night and through Monday. Due to these stronger winds and very low min RH values, critical fire weather conditions are forecast Monday. Temperatures ahead of the front will be well above normal, especially across the south. Afternoon highs on Sunday will be mid to upper 70 across the north and low to mid 80s across the south. Monday will be noticeably cooler, with afternoon highs ranging from mid 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night, and low to mid 30s on Monday night. Due to the persistent NW breeze, lowest wind chills on Sunday night into Monday will fall into the low to mid 30s, and mid to upper 20s on Monday night into Tuesday. A Cold Weather Advisory is likely to be needed for most of the area Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday-Friday... Surface high pressure across the Gulf will slowly shift eastward and over the Florida peninsula by Tuesday night. The high pressure will continue to shift eastward and out into the Atlantic Wednesday with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula through late week. Locally, north to northwest winds on Tuesday will shift southerly on Wednesday and remain in place through late week. Wind speeds will generally be light, at 10 mph or less through the period. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the week, with temperatures reaching upper 70s to low 80s by mid/late week. Overnight lows will also be on a warming trend, with lows in the low to mid 30s, except upper 30s to low 40s around the Orlando metro and along the coast on Tuesday night, warming to the 50s by mid/late week. Radiational cooling will be excellent on Tuesday night due to the clear skies, and coupled with the high pressure over head and light winds, the potential for frost is increasing where temperatures fall into the mid 30s.

MARINE

Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Today- Saturday... Generally good boating conditions as the high pressure ridge axis will remain across Florida through Saturday. This will result in south to southwest flow persisting across the local waters both days. However, winds will veer onshore (SE) each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes onshore. Winds behind the sea breeze will be 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Seas 2-4 FT today and 2-3 FT Sat. No mentionable rain chances.

Sunday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous discussion) Deteriorating boating conditions Sunday into early next week. A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday bringing scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few lightning storms mainly over the Gulf Stream. Strong and gusty NW winds will develop behind the front Sun afternoon and quickly overspread all the local Atlc waters. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop with seas building to 12 FT in the Gulf Stream early Mon. Gusts to Gale force are possible Sun night into Mon esp offshore. Conditions will remain hazardous for boating through early next week. Winds will decrease 12-15 knots on Tue but the north wind component will keep seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf Stream with a choppy 4-5 FT nearshore.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 552 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Persistence is the key as we remain beneath a ridge of high pressure. Light winds and higher than usual moisture present a threat for low CIGs and/or fog late tonight, especially at LEE and perhaps VRB/FPR. Confidence in restrictions is very low at MCO, so kept prevailing VFR for now. On Saturday, SW winds up to 12 KT with a sea breeze at the coast from MLB to SUA in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions continue into the weekend. Min RH values will drop to 35-45% this afternoon and Saturday afternoon across the whole area. Southwest winds will remain around 10 mph or less through Saturday. A strong cold front will then push through the local area on Sunday. Min RH values will drop to 35-45% across the northern interior on Sunday with min RH values recovering slightly to 45-55% across the south. Southwest winds will become northwest and breezy to gusty (15 mph gusting 25-30 mph) behind the front. As the drier air settles over the Florida peninsula Monday, min RH values will drop to 20-30% areawide and northwest winds will be near 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph once again. This will result in critical conditions for fire weather and a Red Flag Warning looks likely both Sunday and Monday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Record Highs for today and Saturday:

RECORD RECORD NORMAL DATE HIGH DATE HIGH HI DAB 20-Feb 85 1988 21-Feb 87 1989 72 LEE 20-Feb 86 2018 21-Feb 87 2018 74 SFB 20-Feb 86 2019 21-Feb 87 2003 75 MCO 20-Feb 89 1988 21-Feb 88 1989 76 MLB 20-Feb 86 1988 21-Feb 88 1989 75 VRB 20-Feb 88 2023 21-Feb 87 2014 76 FPR 20-Feb 88 1932 21-Feb 89 1989 76

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 60 86 61 75 / 0 0 20 60 MCO 63 87 63 78 / 0 0 10 60 MLB 60 85 59 80 / 0 0 0 60 VRB 60 85 59 82 / 0 0 0 60 LEE 61 86 62 74 / 0 0 30 60 SFB 62 88 63 77 / 0 0 10 60 ORL 63 87 64 77 / 0 0 10 60 FPR 59 85 58 82 / 0 0 0 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.