textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Tropical Depression Two (TD 2) is forecast to move north to northwest, and remain well west of the local area. The main impact to east central Florida will be bands of scattered gusty showers and storms through today.

- Storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 55 mph and heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding will also be possible in some locations. Lower coverage of showers and storms into mid to late week.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through next week, with peak heat indices of 100-107F areawide. Practice heat safety if spending extended periods of time outdoors!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Today-Tonight... Tropical Depression Two (TD 2) remains located in the northeast Gulf between two surface highs, one over the Atlantic and one of the western Gulf. TD 2 is forecast to slowly move north- northwest through the day, towards the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Locally, southerly winds will persist with the pressure gradient remaining tight across the area, with winds 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph possible at times. While TD 2 will stay well west of the local area, bands of gusty showers and lightning storms will continue to move northward through east central Florida, aided by the west and east coast sea breezes. There is a medium (40- 60 percent) chance for showers and storms this afternoon, with the coverage being widely scattered. Highest coverage is forecast across the interior, where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur. Storm motion will be 20-25 mph and generally towards to the northeast.

The environment supports convection this afternoon with forecast soundings showing ample instability (MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg), steep low-level lapse rates, sufficient shear (SFC-6km shear of ~ 15 KT), and plenty of downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-900 J/kg). Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 50-55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3". Some minor, localized, flooding will also be possible in some locations in training rain bands.

Any lingering shower and storm activity is forecast to dissipate or move out of the area late evening, with mostly dry conditions forecast each night. However, can not rule out a few showers brushing the coast as showers continue across the Atlantic waters through the overnight. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue with afternoon high temperatures in the low mid 90s and peak heat indices of 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows will continue to be in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Thursday... Upper level ridging across the Plains and the Deep South will stay in place through the time period. At the surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will strengthen and continue to build across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf. This will allow TD 2 to move westward along the northern Gulf Coast and towards Texas through late week, away from east central Florida. Locally, drier air will move into the area on Tuesday, with forecast PW values ranging from 1.5-1.7", which will result in reduced rain chances through the period. Lower than normal rain chances are forecast, with a low (20-30 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms each day. Southerly flow will persist through the period, with the pressure gradient relaxing on Tuesday, resulting in winds slackening. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon, turning the winds onshore (east to southeast) behind the sea breeze. A slight warming trend through mid week, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s, even nearing the upper 90s at times. These temperatures combined with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100- 107F. A Heat Advisory may be needed, will continue to monitor.

Friday-Sunday... Upper level high pressure over the Plains and the Deep South will remain in place as a trough over the Midwest shifts eastward towards the Atlantic coast through Sunday. At the surface, the Atlantic high pressure will shift southward through the weekend as a low pressure system pushes off the coast of the Carolinas. An associated boundary will dig through the Deep South into late week and into northern Florida before stalling over the weekend. Locally, moisture will increase over the area from the stalled boundary. However, there remains some uncertainty to how much moisture will push into Florida, and will depend on how far south the boundary makes it and where it stalls. For now have a low (20-30 percent) chance for rain and storms on Friday and a low to medium (20-50 percent) chance on the weekend. The pressure gradient will remain relaxed over the area through the weekend, with south to southeast winds on Friday turning south to southwest over the weekend. The east coast sea breeze will form each day, backing the winds onshore (east to southeast) each afternoon. Hot temperatures will continue, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s, with Saturday being the warmest day of the weekend. Coupled with high humidity, peak heat indices will be in the above 100 F. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Today-Friday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions through this evening. Tropical Depression Two (TD 2) remains located in the northeast Gulf between two surface highs, one over the Atlantic and one of the western Gulf. TD 2 is forecast to slowly move north- northwest, away from the local area, through mid week. Southerly winds will persist with the pressure gradient remaining tight over the local area through today. The pressure gradient relaxes on Tuesday, the winds slackening into mid to late week. Winds 15-20 KT today will increase to around 20 KT in the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard tonight. Small craft should exercise caution in all the waters today. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for those waters starting at 03Z Tuesday and going through 12Z Tuesday. Seas 2 to 3 feet this morning will increase in response to the winds to 2 to 4 ft by this afternoon. Southerly winds will persist through late week, with speeds generally 10-15 knots. Seas will remain between 2 to 4 feet through early next week, before slowly subsiding to 2-3 feet on Wednesday through Friday. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible, primarily during the late evening and overnight hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Light southerly winds persist through this morning, picking up to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots through the afternoon hours. VCTS chances increase after 17Z, with PROB30s generally between 18-24Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Anticipate coverage of showers and storms diminishing after 00Z areawide with light southerly winds of 5-10 knots overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 92 77 93 76 / 40 20 20 10 MCO 94 77 95 77 / 50 20 20 10 MLB 92 78 92 77 / 50 20 20 10 VRB 93 76 93 76 / 50 20 20 10 LEE 92 78 93 77 / 50 20 30 10 SFB 94 77 95 77 / 50 20 20 10 ORL 93 78 95 77 / 50 20 20 10 FPR 93 76 93 75 / 60 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572.