textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

- Unseasonably hot again today while remaining mostly dry. A HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at the beaches.

- Hot and windy on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Near record highs in the low to mid 90s, including the coast. Frequent wind gusts 30-35 mph will produce very sensitive fire weather conditions and widespread Moderate HeatRisk.

- A chance for strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening with potential for damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Today...Stationary front draped across north FL and low level ridge axis to our south will continue to produce an offshore (W/SW) flow. Not as tight of a pressure gradient will allow the sea breeze to form earlier and push farther inland than yesterday. Still, unseasonably warm with max temps in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s coast. Mainly dry with only isolated showers possible as the sea breeze pushes inland across the north. A Minor to Moderate HeatRisk will exist affecting those who are sensitive to heat and without adequate cooling and hydration.

At area beaches, a HIGH risk of rip currents exists, again, today. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs.

Sat...Pressure gradient tightens Sat as sfc pressures fall along the frontal boundary ahead of a sharpening long wave eastern CONUS trough. Strong and gusty WSW winds will develop by late morning and into the afternoon. Sustained 20 mph with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph will be close to wind advisory criteria. With no chance of a sea breeze, max temps will soar into the mid 90s esp along the Space and Treasure coasts resulting in near record highs there. An increase in clouds and rain chances in the aftn may hold maxes to the lower 90s in Lake/Volusia. A more widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast with a chance for Major HeatRisk for the Space and Treasure coasts.

With the already very dry conditions across EC FL, hot temperatures, low RH and strong/gusty winds will create very sensitive fire weather conditions prior to any rain/storms. Lightning strikes may spark brush fires that smolder for a day or two before flaring up.

CAM guidance are in agreement showing a faster convective evolution with a potential linear convective line reaching northern counties in the mid afternoon, coincident with near peak heating, reaching Orlando metro/Cape in the early evening. Increased moisture (PWAT 1.70-2.00") will combine with cool mid levels (-10 to -11C at 500mb), sufficient instability (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and most notably strong upper level shear 50-70 knots to produce a risk of strong to severe storms Sat aftn and eve mainly Brevard/Osceola northward. The best chance for damaging winds and large hail (5-14%) will be across north Lake/Volusia counties where SPC has a Slight risk (level 2/5) with a Marginal risk (level 1/5) to the south. Areas from Osceola/Brevard counties northward will have a 2-4% chance for a tornado. Convection is forecast to weaken after sunset as it pushes southward into Okeechobee/Treasure coast.

Sun...The cold front will slow as it reaches south FL. Scattered to numerous showers and storms ongoing from the overnight will shift southward. A heavy rain threat may evolve Sun across southern sections (Okeechobee/ Treasure coast) where PWATs pool around 2.0". But it is possible this threat will focus more across SE FL. Considerable clouds and cooler temps will limit the threat for strong/severe storms. North winds behind the front will produce noticeably cooler temps in the mid to upper 70s with partial clearing spreading southward as drier air advects in. Despite the high rain chances this weekend, rainfall is forecast to only bring limited drought relief.

Mon-Thu...Elongated surface high pressure extends from the Gulf Coast States across the Southeast U.S., while wedged between the former quasi-stationary front over south FL/FL Straits, and another frontal boundary strewn across the ERN CONUS. High pressure gradually weakens into mid-week getting pulled seaward into the WRN Atlc. Residual moisture from the nearly stalled front over south FL keeps low afternoon rain/lightning storm chances (20%) in the forecast, generally Martin county Mon. The next front approaches Thu with a chance for showers/storms in the aftn. Temps near seasonal Mon with afternoon highs in the U70s-L80s, then quickly warming back up to the mid to upper 80s Tue and Upper 80s/low 90s Wed/Thu. Onshore (E/SE) winds become gusty in the afternoons behind the sea breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Today...Generally favorable boating conditions. A stationary front remains draped across north Florida, with the low level ridge axis across south FL. Offshore winds 5-15 kts initially this morning should decrease and allow an earlier onset of the sea breeze near the coast compared to yesterday. SE winds assocd with the sea breeze will be 10-15 knots with some higher gusts. Seas 2-3 FT with offshore seas subsiding below 4 FT by afternoon. A nocturnal surge of S/SW winds 15-20 kts south of the Cape tonight may prompt a Caution headline offshore.

Sat-Tue...Boating conditions deteriorate as a cold front approaches Saturday then slowly pushes through Florida and the local Atlantic waters Saturday night through Sunday. Southwest winds 10-15 kts Saturday morning increase 15-20 kts, with a period of near 20 kts offshore in the afternoon ahead of the front. Wind shift out of the north Saturday night and Sunday behind the front, then out of the northeast Sunday night/Monday as elongated high pressure to the north builds over the area. Wind speeds 15-20 knots behind the front decreasing 10-15 knots Monday. Winds veer East on Tue around 10 knots Tue as ridge axis approaches the area. Seas build 4-5 FT offshore Sat then expand nearshore Sunday with 6 FT in the Gulf Stream. Seas begin to subside Mon at 3-4 FT but holding 5-6 FT in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape. Then 3-4 FT Tue. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms (chances up to 70%) will accompany the frontal passage late Saturday into Sunday, decreasing Sunday night, with isolated to scattered showers and storms (chances 20-30%) remaining possible south of Ft Pierce Inlet Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

IFR-LIFR CIGS have developed at and around KOBE, and gradually spreading NE. HREF which is handling the stratus best and keeps impacts just short of KVRB-KSUA, so keeping those terminals VFR for now but can't rule out a short-fused TEMPO. Any reductions should clear by 14Z at the latest. Otherwise dry VFR conditions through the TAF period. Only SHRA chances very low (10% or less) INVOF KDAB. Light W-SW winds early this morning shift SW at 5-10 kts in the afternoon. The east coast sea breeze develops after 17Z, switching winds at coastal terminals to E-SE at 8-13 kts, with occasionally higher gusts at KVRB-KSUA. Boundary may make it inland to KSFB/KMCO, causing winds to become shifty/VRB after 22Z. Winds across the board diminish after 00Z. Once again have a subset of models indicating fog/stratus at northern terminals late Friday night into Saturday morning. WSW winds increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts Saturday ahead of a front. SHRA/TSRA chances increase Saturday afternoon, and +TSRA possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Hot and mostly dry conditions again today. Isolated showers will be limited to areas north and east of Orlando. A little weaker west- southwest flow should allow the east coast sea breeze to develop and push farther inland than yesterday. MinRH values will fall 35-45% this afternoon especially over the interior. Very Good to Excellent afternoon dispersion is forecast over the interior today, generally Good along the coast.

On Saturday, west-southwest winds increase 15-20 mph with gusts 30- 35 mph which will produce rapid spread of any new or existing fires. Hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s even at the coast will combine to produce min RH values near 35% south of Orlando, producing a very sensitive fire weather day. A Red Flag Warning may be needed for portions of the area Saturday. An approaching cold front will bring the next chance for wetting rain across much of the area beginning late Saturday across the north, spreading southward Saturday night and Sunday. Lightning strikes this weekend will be an additional concern for new fire starts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites today and Saturday:

Site May 1 May 2 DAB 94 (2002) 95 (1953) LEE 94 (2017) 95 (1990) SFB 95 (2017) 94 (2010) MCO 96 (1917) 97 (1906) MLB 94 (2002) 95 (2002) VRB 96 (1971) 94 (2002) FPR 93 (2002) 95 (2002)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 68 91 61 / 10 0 40 70 MCO 93 68 94 64 / 10 0 30 70 MLB 88 69 93 66 / 0 0 20 70 VRB 90 68 94 68 / 0 0 10 60 LEE 91 68 90 61 / 10 0 50 70 SFB 93 68 93 63 / 10 0 40 70 ORL 93 70 92 64 / 10 0 30 70 FPR 90 67 94 67 / 0 0 10 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.