textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Chilly overnight with warmer, near-normal temperatures Friday afternoon

- Very windy conditions develop Saturday with strong wind gusts35 to 45 mph; occasional gusts around 50 mph possible

- A rare Extreme Cold Watch and Freeze Watch issued for all of east central Florida Saturday night into Sunday; dangerous wind chill values as low as 7 degrees and a hard freeze likely with lows in the 20s Sunday morning

- Gale Watch issued for rapidly deteriorating boating conditions Saturday afternoon and night as winds increase and seas build; strong gale-force gusts are likely

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Now-Friday...While still a bit on the cool side, it is a pleasant afternoon out there as temperatures climb into the 60s. Satellite imagery is absent of clouds over central and east central Florida, allowing for ample sunshine. Temperatures will fall efficiently into the upper 30s to mid 40s in most places overnight (low-mid 50s at the coast), which ranges from 5-10 degrees below normal, on average. Low level cloud cover is forecast to slowly increase on Friday across the Treasure Coast while a few high clouds move across northern portions of the area. Friday will be the last warm day with near-normal temperatures until next Wednesday. Pleasant conditions will provide a prime opportunity to prepare for this weekend's significantly colder air (Saturday may be too windy...more on that below). There is a low chance for an isolated shower or two across Martin and coastal Saint Lucie counties Friday as coastal trough develops. However, this surface feature will pretty quickly move offshore, leaving drier conditions behind by late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures settle into the 40s and low 50s overnight into early Saturday.

Saturday...Big changes are on the way beginning Saturday morning as a strong cold front moves quickly across the Gulf and state of Florida. A developing low pressure system over south Georgia early Saturday morning is forecast to quickly move east over the Atlantic Saturday morning, dragging a cold front into east central Florida around sunrise. PW briefly increase ahead of the front to 1", and with sufficient forcing, isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop. These showers will move quickly from west to east, with higher chances focused south of Melbourne (from Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast). Rain totals will be very light, generally less that 0.05" to 0.10". Clouds will be around through the frontal passage and shortly thereafter but are likely to clear out fast Saturday afternoon as drier air arrives.

The aforementioned surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen offshore of the Carolina Coast Saturday. This will lead to pressure falls and winds strengthening behind the passing cold front. Sustained west-northwest winds 20-30 mph with frequent gusts 35-45 mph are likely (models show 925 winds 35-45+ kt). In fact, there is at least a 20-30% probability of 50+ mph gusts Saturday afternoon and evening. With this in mind, by midday Saturday, it will become increasingly difficult to secure any loose outdoor items or prepare vegetation for the anticipated hard freeze Saturday night. Thus, we encourage residents (and visitors) to make preparations for the cold weather before these strong gusty winds arrive!

Temperatures will plummet Saturday afternoon after reaching an earlier high in the mid 50s to mid 60s. By sunset, expect temps to range from the low 40s north of I-4 to the upper 40s/low 50s along the Treasure Coast. A hard freeze is forecast overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, with forecast lows dipping into the low and middle 20s (upper 20s far south). This, combined with gusty northwest winds, will lead to wind chill values in the teens and single digits. With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event increasingly likely, residents, officials, and agricultural operations should begin preparing. People and pets with inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non- cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected.

With increasing confidence in a widespread hard freeze and dangerously cold wind chills, both a Freeze Watch and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for all of east central Florida Saturday night through midday Sunday. To emphasize the rarity of such an event, the last time NWS Melbourne issued a Wind Chill Warning was in January of 2014.

Sunday-Wednesday...While winds decrease gradually on Sunday as the nor'easter pulls well and away, temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s to low 50s areawide. Combine this with a 10-20 mph wind and wind chills will stay in the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday afternoon. Very dry conditions are forecast, so plenty of sunshine is anticipated. Fire sensitive to critical fire weather conditions may develop as result of the dry conditions and breezy northwest winds (lingering into Monday).

Another very cold night is on tap Sunday night into Monday morning, with lows forecast to sink below the freezing mark in most locations. Wind chills retreat into the teens and low 20s as a 5-10 mph northwest wind persists. High pressure builds overhead Tuesday into Wednesday, and an anticipated warmup commences with highs in the 60s Tuesday reaching the upper 60s to low 70s by Wednesday. Each morning will still be on the cold side (30s to low 40s).

For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport.

MARINE

Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions return to the local waters tonight into Friday as high pressure moves overhead. Light west- northwest winds briefly increase to 10-15 kt offshore Friday afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft.

A strong cold front is set to bring a rare and significant cold outbreak to the Florida Peninsula and adjacent Atlantic waters. As the front approaches and moves across the waters during the day Saturday, northwest winds quickly strengthen to 25-35+ kt (likely sustained gale-force) with strong gale-force gusts. For a brief time Saturday night, occasional storm-force gusts cannot be ruled out. Seas build in response, growing to 5-8 ft nearshore and 8-11 ft offshore by sunset Saturday evening. Seas build further, reaching 6- 11 ft nearshore and 10-16 ft offshore by Sunday morning. Seas will be slow to subside early next week, likely remaining hazardous in the Gulf Stream through Monday into early Tuesday, as northwest winds gradually weaken. Thus, a Gale Watch has been issued, beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through at least midday Sunday.

Shower chances return to the Gulf Stream and nearshore Treasure Coast waters Friday as a coastal trough briefly forms, then shifts offshore Friday evening. On Saturday, rain chances increase along and ahead of the strong cold front (particularly over the Gulf Stream and south of Cape Canaveral).

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 620 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions forecast through the period. Light and variable winds tonight pick up out of the southwest to northwest after 17Z around 10 knots. Cloud cover begins building through the day on Friday, but there are no CIG concerns at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Sunday, February 1st: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb 30 1936 49 47 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 1-Feb 30 1979 50 52 1978 71 Sanford (SFB) 1-Feb 30 1965 51 46 1977 72 Orlando (MCO) 1-Feb 28 1936 51 48 1936 73 Melbourne (MLB) 1-Feb 32 1966 52 55 1948 72 Vero Beach (VRB) 1-Feb 29 1966 53 56 1966 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 1-Feb 32 1909 52 54 1936 74

Monday, February 2nd: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb 32 1980 50 51 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 2-Feb 29 1980 50 48 1980 71 Sanford (SFB) 2-Feb 33 1980 51 49 1980 72 Orlando (MCO) 2-Feb 32 1980 51 54 1951 73 Melbourne (MLB) 2-Feb 33 1980 52 55 1994 73 Vero Beach (VRB) 2-Feb 34 1980 53 55 1980 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 2-Feb 34 1980 52 57 1994 74

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 45 70 46 57 / 0 0 20 10 MCO 46 71 50 59 / 0 0 20 20 MLB 49 72 47 63 / 0 10 20 20 VRB 48 72 47 64 / 0 10 20 30 LEE 42 70 46 55 / 0 10 20 10 SFB 44 71 47 57 / 0 0 20 10 ORL 45 71 50 57 / 0 0 20 20 FPR 48 72 47 64 / 0 20 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.