textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Dry conditions persist across east central Florida through Sunday, with increasing rain and storm chances forecast from Monday onward.

- A high risk of rip currents is forecast at all east central Florida beaches today; entering the ocean is not advised!

- A gradual warming trend will lead to some spots across the interior reaching the mid 90s late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure situated across the eastern US will generally remain in place, with some slight drifting southward through today and into tonight. Drier air will attempt to push southward towards east central Florida, but predominant onshore flow at the surface and aloft will help advect some moisture from the Atlantic towards the peninsula, keeping PWATs generally between 0.9" to 1.2". Onshore flow may lead to some light, isolated sprinkles along the coast, but overall, conditions will remain dry across east central Florida. Wind speeds of 5 to 10 mph this morning will pick up to 10 to 15 mph this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, enhancing the onshore flow. Temperatures are forecast to remain seasonable, with highs in the mid 80s along the coast and in the upper 80s across the interior. Lows overnight fall into the mid 60s to low 70s.

Despite the dry conditions and seasonable temperatures, conditions at the local beaches are forecast to remain poor to hazardous. A high risk of rip currents and rough surf is anticipated at all east central Florida beaches. Entering the surf is not advised!

Saturday-Sunday...Into this weekend, the surface high pressure is forecast to slowly drift offshore across the Atlantic, with the ridge axis remaining north of east central Florida. Onshore flow between 10 to 15 mph will persist through the weekend along with mostly dry conditions areawide on Saturday. The pattern begins to shift slightly on Sunday as the high pressure moves farther offshore and weakens, allowing a stalled boundary draped across south Florida to lift slightly northward on Sunday. This will cause a surge of moisture northward, leading to a slight increase in rain chances across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon hours, with PoPs ranging between 15-20%. Areas northward will remain mostly dry.

Temperatures through this weekend will follow a gradual warming trend, with highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s reaching the upper 80s t mid 90s on Sunday. The warmest temperatures will be focused across the interior. Lows Saturday night in the mid 60s to mid 70s reach the 70s areawide on Sunday night.

Monday-Thursday...Short-lived omega block pattern develops in the mid-levels late Sunday into Monday, keeping broad high pressure in place across the Florida peninsula for the start of the work week. The stationary boundary washes out on Monday, with the plume of moisture still forecast to remain in place across the peninsula. Rain chances will increase across areas south of the Orlando metro and Cape Canaveral. By Tuesday, the omega block breaks down and a lobe of mid-level energy drifts southward, driving a weak cold front southward across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. The front will slow down and stall through the remainder of the week, with some discrepancies between global models on just how much moisture will return to east central Florida. Routine diurnal rain and storm chances return to the forecast Tuesday onward, but would anticipate fluctuations in rain and storm chances due to the global model discrepancies.

Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s on Monday, falling slightly into the mid 80s to low 90s Tuesday onward behind the weak cold front. Lows will remain in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

High pressure across the eastern US will gradually slide southeastward towards the western Atlantic waters, with the ridge axis extending just north of the local waters. The high is forecast to weaken early next week, with a weak cold front forecast to move southward across the local waters on Tuesday with little fanfare. Persistent easterly flow is forecast through this weekend and into next week, with wind speeds generally ranging between 10 to 15 knots. As a result, seas are forecast to gradually subside, with seas of 3 to 5 feet today falling to 2 to 4 feet Saturday onward.

Rain chances are forecast to remain low through this weekend as drier air remains in place. However, due to the onshore flow, some light, isolated sprinkles and showers cannot be ruled out from development at times, moving onshore along the coast. Rain and storm chances increase starting Monday as moisture returns to the area, with the highest chances currently forecast from Tuesday onward.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 601 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Continued VFR conditions through the TAF period. ERLY winds increase to 10-15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts. Mainly dry conditions are forecast though brief, ISOLD -SHRA (onshore-moving) cannot be ruled out. Onshore winds fall to light again this evening and overnight, but could stay elevated 5-10 kts along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 84 71 86 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 87 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 85 75 86 75 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 85 73 86 75 / 0 0 10 0 LEE 88 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 88 69 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 88 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 84 72 85 73 / 0 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.