textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 150 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Drier air moving into the region will lead to decreasing rain chances, falling to 30-50% today, with below normal coverage of showers and storms then forecast each day this week. Isolated strong storms will still be possible each day.

- A High Risk of rip currents continues at area beaches today.

- Hot and humid conditions continue next several days. Peak heat index values of 102-107F forecast, and may reach Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Today-Tonight...Atlantic ridge axis north of the area will being to shift southward today. However, surface winds will remain mostly onshore out of the southeast, becoming east-southeast and increasing to 10-15 mph this afternoon behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze. Mid level ridge will begin to nudge in from the east, with drier air aloft moving in and dropping PW values to 1.8-2.0". This will lead to decreasing coverage of showers and storms today (rain chances 30-50%). CAM guidance shows varying solutions for convective formation today, but overall trends favor isolated to scattered showers and potentially a storm or two moving onshore along the coast (mainly south of the Cape) this morning. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will then develop along the sea breeze as it shifts inland, with greatest coverage focusing across the interior, west of I-95 into the afternoon/early evening. The increase in drier air will lead to rising DCAPE values, ranging from 900-1200 J/kg. This will favor some stronger storms developing today, with the main threats being strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3" as steering winds will be weak (10 knots or less) out of the S/SE.

It will remain hot and humid, with highs continuing in the low 90s for most locations, but may see mid 90s for some spots near to NW of I-4 this afternoon. Peak heat index values will continue to be around 102-107F. If planning outdoor activities today, make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or A/C. Also never leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle for any period of time. If headed to the beach for heat relief today, be aware that a High Risk of rip currents continues at area beaches. If entering the surf, only do so near a lifeguard.

Monday-Saturday...Not a huge change in the weather pattern this week, as ridge aloft moves in and holds across the area contributing to hot conditions and below normal shower and storm chances. Isolated to scattered showers will still be possible into Monday afternoon/evening. Greatest rain chances (up to 30-40%) will exist across inland portions of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, with slight rain chances (~20%) elsewhere. For the remainder of the week, rain chances currently remain quite limited around 20% or less as mid level drier air continues to move into the region and ridge aloft remains in place. A gradual rise in rain chances is possible into the weekend, but coverage still looks to be overall below normal. Given the increase in drier air aloft, while storm coverage remains below normal, any storms that do manage to form will have the potential to become strong, producing strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Weak steering winds will also allow for heavy downpours from some storms, producing locally heavy rainfall of 1-2" each day.

These drier than normal conditions will allow for rising heat impacts through the week as little relief will be found from afternoon convection, and afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 90s each day. Peak heat index values will easily reach 102-107F, and will still have to monitor the need for Heat Advisories, especially from Tuesday onward as portions of the area may see heat index values rise to 108-110F. Warm and muggy overnight temps in the mid to upper 70s will also amplify the overall heat impacts, with widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast for much of the area each day. Continuing to follow heat safety practices will remain important as we go through the week.

MARINE

Issued at 150 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Through Thursday...Favorable boating conditions forecast today into the upcoming week. Atlantic ridge axis north of the area will start a slow southward progression, moving across the waters early this week and then south of the region into midweek. SE winds today into Monday will become S/SE and eventually W/SW by Wed-Thu. However, the offshore flow will remain weak enough for the east coast sea breeze to still form each day, with winds becoming onshore (SE) near the coast into the afternoon/evening. Wind speeds are forecast to generally remain below 15 knots over the next several days, with seas 2-3 feet through Monday and 1-2 feet the remainder of the week.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across the waters through this morning, lifting toward the north-northwest. This activity will then diminish into the afternoon, with shower and storms chances remaining below normal into the upcoming week. A few showers and storms still can't be completely ruled out across the waters at times, but rain chances remain low (20% or less).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight will become south to southeast and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning. Onshore moving showers and storms will be possible through the morning hours, mainly from MLB southward. Have included VCSH starting at 13Z for those sites. Scattered showers and storms are forecast to form along the sea breeze (generally west of the coastal terminals) in the afternoon, and then progress inland with the sea breeze through the afternoon and evening. Have maintained VCTS at inland terminals starting at 19/20Z, and along the coast starting at 16Z. Have added TEMPOs for interior sites for MVFR conditions and wind gusts to 20 KT with TSRA starting at 20/21Z. Have not included any TEMPOs/PROB30s for coastal sites at this time. Activity will first diminish along the coast by late afternoon, and by then across the interior by late evening. Winds will become light once again by the evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 90 76 91 76 / 20 10 20 0 MCO 93 76 94 76 / 50 10 20 0 MLB 89 77 90 77 / 30 0 20 0 VRB 90 77 91 76 / 30 0 10 0 LEE 93 77 93 77 / 30 20 20 0 SFB 93 76 94 77 / 40 10 20 0 ORL 93 76 93 77 / 50 10 20 0 FPR 90 77 90 77 / 30 0 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.