textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Trending drier, but isolated to widely scattered showers possible through Saturday. Lightning storms and additional flooding are not expected.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions to last through the upcoming weekend, including life-threatening rip currents, even as surf appears to improve.

- Warm and dry next week as high pressure builds over East Central Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Today-tonight... High pressure centered across the eastern seaboard and Deep South will slowly shift southward through the period. This will bring drier air across the area, resulting in lower rain chances for east central Florida. Forecast PWs ranging between 0.8- 1.1" this morning will decrease to 0.75-1.0" by this afternoon. This will support a low (20 percent) chance of onshore moving showers through the day, mainly from the I-4 corridor southward and along the coast from Cape Canaveral southward. Forecast soundings shows a significant dry layer in the mid levels, which will limit deep convection. Thus, lightning storms are not forecast at this time. Some showers today may produce heavier downpours, but due to the quick motion to the southwest of these cells, the flooding potential will be limited. As the high pressure moves southward, the pressure gradient will slacken slightly overhead, with onshore flow (northeast winds) remaining breezy with gusts to around 30 mph along the coast and 25 mph inland in the afternoon from sea breeze enhancement. Warmer today, with temperatures forecast to be seasonable to slightly below normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s along the coast, and upper 70s to low 80s across the interior. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Saturday-Sunday... Upper level high pressure across the Gulf on Saturday will slowly shift eastward over the Florida peninsula on Sunday. Surface high pressure centered over the Deep south will steadily shift eastward towards the eastern seaboard and the western Atlantic as it gets reinforced by an additional surface high from the northern US on Sunday and pushes offshore into the Atlantic. The ridge axis will remain in place across the Florida peninsula as well as the Deep South/western Atlantic through the period. This will result in east to northeast flow continuing with breezy conditions each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Forecast PW values will be around 0.8-0.9" Saturday afternoon before more dry air filters in on Sunday (PW values ranging from 0.6-0.7"). Much like today, there is enough moisture in the onshore flow to support isolated onshore-moving showers on Saturday. Thus, have added a low (20 percent) chance of showers along the coast from north Cape Canaveral northward and across the interior along and north of the I-4 corridor for most of the day. Have also added a 20% across the southern Treasure Coast, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Rain chances remain 10% or less on Sunday as the additional drier air moves in. The gradual warming trend continues with afternoon highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s each day. Overnight lows will be seasonable with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Despite the improved weather conditions, beach and marine conditions will remain poor to hazardous through the weekend. While the surf appears less rough and more inviting, there remains life-threatening rip currents at all area beaches and entering the water at the beaches is not advised.

Monday-Friday... Upper level high pressure will continue to build over the Gulf and over the Florida peninsula through the period as a trough across the western US/Great Plains region begins to slightly deepen before flattening once again as it shifts eastward towards the Midwest and then offshore the eastern US into mid week. Another trough will develop and deepen over the western US into late week as it shifts eastward. Surface high pressure offshore the New England coast on Monday will gradually shift southward through the period with the ridge axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. A surface front associated with the second trough (late week) will shift eastward towards the Florida peninsula into the weekend. However, the trough and the front will likely remain north of the area due to insufficient forcing. Will continue to monitor trends with that system. The drier air, forecast PW values remaining less than 1.0", coupled with light onshore flow and subsidence, will yield very low (10% or less) rain chances through the period. However, ECFL could see some low rain chances return on Friday if the winds shift southeasterly and moisture increases across the area. But for now, rain chances are 10% or less. The warming trend continues, with afternoon highs ranging from upper 70s- mid 80s on Monday, to low 80s- upper 80s (possibly low 90s in the western interior) by Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Today-Tonight... Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist across the central Florida Atlantic waters through the weekend. The pressure gradient will slacken some over the local waters from what it has been as the ridge axis slides southward towards Florida. This will result in east to northeast winds locally becoming 10-20 KT with higher gusts at times. Seas will also slowly subside through the period, with seas 6-9 ft this afternoon diminishing to 5-7 ft Saturday, and 4-7 ft early Sunday morning, then rebound to 5-8 ft Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Central Florida Atlantic waters through 6 AM Saturday morning, and continues for all Gulf Stream segments including nearshore Brevard and the Treasure Coast through 8 AM Monday. Small craft should continue to exercise caution in the Volusia nearshore waters after the Advisory expires. Isolated to widely scattered onshore moving showers will continue over the Atlantic waters through Saturday as sufficient moisture remains over the area. No lightning storms are forecast. Otherwise mostly dry on Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday... High pressure shifts into the subtropical Atlantic while the ridge axis remains pinned over the Florida peninsula. This will allow the pressure gradient to further loosen, resulting in easterly winds becoming mostly 5-15 KT with occasional pushes towards 15-20 KT south of the Cape. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger into Monday. Seas 5-7 ft in the offshore waters and 4-6 ft in the nearshore waters on Monday will finally subside to 3-5 ft Tuesday, and 2-4 ft on Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Mostly dry today, with just a few showers (VCSH) along the coast from around MLB southward this afternoon. Breezy, with NE winds 10-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts. VFR conditions prevailing, though with cloud bases near 030 at times, could see brief MVFR conditions with BKN030. Winds diminish this evening, though they will remain near 10 kts overnight south of Cape Canaveral. Saturday, dry again, with similar breezes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 63 78 63 79 / 10 20 0 0 MCO 62 80 63 81 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 65 78 67 79 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 65 78 65 79 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 60 82 60 84 / 10 20 0 0 SFB 60 81 61 82 / 10 20 0 0 ORL 62 81 62 82 / 10 20 0 0 FPR 64 78 64 79 / 20 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552-555-570- 572-575.