textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Scattered rain and storms continue this weekend, along with seasonably hot temperatures and peak heat indices in the low 100s, staying below Heat Advisory levels.

- A moderate risk for rip currents continues at east central Florida beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

- Temperatures closer to normal by the middle to latter part of next week as rain chances remain near to slightly above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Today-Sunday... A surface ridge axis remains extended over central Florida today, and light southerly flow continues on the western extent of the ridge. Showers and occasional storms across the coastal waters early this morning may brush portions of the coast, but most areas should remain dry ahead of sunrise. Into late morning and the early afternoon, development of the east coast sea breeze should initiate a diurnal pattern of scattered showers and storms. Coverage increases inland through the remainder of the afternoon and evening as the sea breeze interacts with prior storm boundaries and eventually collides with the west coast sea breeze near the Orlando metro. On Sunday, the influence of the surface ridge weakens, and southerly winds will become more light and variable. Otherwise, a very similar pattern of diurnal showers and storms is expected. Deep moisture will persist through the period, and heavy downpours within slow moving storms may result in localized rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches. A few stronger storms which develop will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and localized downburst wind gusts of 40-50 mph each day.

Temperatures remain seasonably hot, mostly reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s. Muggy conditions will allow peak heat index values to climb into the triple digits, and values ranging 100-106F will remain below Heat Advisory criteria. Mild mornings continue with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Friday... Ridging aloft amplifies over the southeast U.S. early next week as a trough digs through the northeast U.S. and moves offshore. Surface high pressure quickly fills over the northeastern seaboard behind the trough, increasing the pressure gradient. Local onshore winds increase in response, becoming breezy and gusty on Tuesday and further increasing to around 15-20 mph on Wednesday. Beyond mid week, greater uncertainty exists within the synoptic pattern. As the aforementioned trough continues to move offshore, a broadening area of low pressure rounds the eastern side of the mid-level ridge anchored over the southeast U.S. More aggressive deterministic model solutions show this area becoming a closed low while most ensemble guidance shows a more broad open wave developing over the southwest Atlantic by mid week. The area of low pressure continues to round the decaying ridge over the southeast U.S. into late week, passing over Florida and into the Gulf. Deep moisture looks to generally persists through the extended forecast, continuing a period of near to above seasonal rain chances. Slightly above normal temperatures are forecast Monday as highs reach the low to mid 90s. Increasing onshore flow should then gradually reduce temperatures, with highs mostly ranging the upper 80s by Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Today-Monday...Weakening high pressure will maintain favorable boating conditions through the weekend and early next week. Light southerly flow across the local waters today often becomes light and variable Sunday and Monday. Seas mostly hold around 2 ft, but reach up to 3 ft far offshore north of the Cape. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast across the Gulf Stream late overnight and early each morning. Additional development is expected near the coast and across the intracoastal waters each afternoon as the sea breeze develops.

Tuesday-Thursday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions build into mid week as a cold front moves offshore the northeast U.S. Onshore winds increasing 10-15 kts Tuesday further increase to 20-25 kts into Wednesday. Seas 2-3 ft on Tuesday build 6-8 ft on Wednesday in response. Winds begin to subside Wednesday night, becoming 10-15 kts Thursday. Similarly, seas subside 4-6 ft Thursday. Increased onshore flow should favor high coverage of showers and storms over the waters through the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Early morning showers brushing the Treasure Coast are forecast to diminish with sunrise. However, CAMs suggest a somewhat early start to convection along the sea breeze in this area by around 17-18Z. Will then see scattered to numerous showers and storms progress inland along the sea breeze, reaching interior locations by 19-20Z. A sea breeze collision is forecast in the vicinity of ISM/MCO/SFB late afternoon, which will likely cause convection to linger in this area through 1Z. Gusty winds to 40 kts and locally heavy rainfall will be threats with stronger storms. Otherwise, light winds become SE at 10 kts or less as the sea breeze develops. VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 90 75 90 75 / 50 30 50 10 MCO 92 76 92 75 / 60 30 60 20 MLB 90 76 90 75 / 50 20 50 10 VRB 89 74 89 73 / 60 20 50 10 LEE 92 76 91 76 / 60 30 60 20 SFB 92 75 91 76 / 60 30 60 10 ORL 91 77 91 77 / 60 30 60 20 FPR 89 74 89 73 / 60 20 60 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.