textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

- Storm chances decrease for this Memorial Day and Tuesday, with only 20-30% coverage in the afternoon and evening.

- The High Risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches today. Avoid swimming in the rough surf. Moderate HeatRisk continues as well, so please stay hydrated if you plan to spend time outdoors this afternoon.

- Rain and storm chances increase beginning Wednesday, lasting through at least next weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be beneficial for the drought, but those who see repeated rounds of storms will need to be monitored for flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

The broad pattern remains unchanged this morning. Florida's weather remains under the control of a deep-layer high-pressure system. The 591 dam upper high sits northeast of the Bahamas, while a large surface high extends from the NW Atlantic to the Deep South. Southeasterly onshore breezes maintain a mT air mass across the state, with PWAT (total moisture) values near to just above seasonal norms.

The 24/12Z ensemble suite is in excellent agreement through midweek. As the upper high nudges slightly closer to the state, somewhat lower moisture is slated to advect overhead through tomorrow. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows that some of this drier air is already encroaching. Then, as an omega block begins to form over the mid-latitudes of N America, a trough near the Canadian Maritimes should cause the ridge to weaken and settle southward during the second half of the work week. As the surface ridge axis follows suit, our prolonged stretch of onshore flow is expected to end by Thursday or Friday.

Bouts of subtropical energy emanating from a disturbance over the Southwest U.S. should undercut the developing omega block. One such disturbance is expected to slowly transit the Gulf late this week. Ahead of it, a plume of rich tropical moisture (PWATs > 1.75") should reach the state beginning Wednesday. By the weekend, cluster analysis strongly implies that a shortwave trough will sit either over or just north of Florida. The combination of this energy, copious moisture, and offshore boundary-layer flow provides multiple opportunities for unsettled weather, with impacts peaking either this weekend or early next week. This is in line with a region of favorable 200 hPa divergence and potential upward motion across the eastern Gulf and Florida by the weekend.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tuesday...

This should be the quietest portion of the week from a weather perspective. Those attending Memorial Day events should plan on seasonably hot temperatures and low (but not zero) chances for showers and storms. Somewhat drier air and less convergence for storm development is noted among the hi-res models through Tuesday. This leaves us with a few low-topped showers near the coast in the morning, transitioning to 20-30% coverage of showers and storms over the interior by afternoon and evening. Typical diurnally driven summerlike storms are expected, with brief, gusty winds, occasional lightning, and heavy rainfall as the primary threats.

Widespread Moderate HeatRisk continues, as does the High Risk of life-threatening rip currents through at least tonight.

Wednesday - Friday...

The latter half of the work week will be transitional. Moisture will quickly increase beginning Wednesday and remain anomalous from there. As ridging weakens, the surface high pressure axis slowly slips southward, reaching our latitude by Thursday before sinking toward the Florida Straits on Friday. With flow eventually turning offshore, the eastern half of the peninsula should see progressively higher coverage of showers and storms. An early look at proximity soundings from model guidance reveals light winds through the column but plentiful afternoon instability. Gusty wet microbursts (40-50 mph) and torrential rainfall, leading to localized minor flooding, appear to be the primary hazards.

High temperatures will remain seasonably warm before storms get going, in the upper 80s to around 90 F. Lows remain balmy in the low/mid 70s.

Next Weekend...

There are still plenty of details to iron out, as evidenced by the spread of outcomes in the guidance. However, the overall setup remains favorable for multiple rounds of showers and storms. A direct moisture tap from the Caribbean Sea, combined with a weak disturbance, should promote 70-80% rain chances each day. Repeated rounds of storms could begin to cause some flooding issues if they affect the same areas. Over the weekend, most likely rainfall amounts are 1-2 inches. For much of east central Florida, there is at least a 10% chance of receiving 3" or more.

High temperatures settle a couple of degrees below normal in the mid 80s due to extra cloud cover, but it will be quite muggy.

MARINE

Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

High pressure remains in charge across the Western Atlantic, with a surface ridge axis extending from near Bermuda to North Florida today. Moderate to at times fresh southeast breezes will persist, which may occasionally cause poor boating conditions. By later this week, high pressure will weaken and settle south of the waters as a weak disturbance gathers in the Gulf. Isolated showers and storms are forecast early this week, with increasing coverage later in the week.

SE winds 12-18 kt through Wednesday, becoming SSE around 10 kt on Thursday. Seas 4-5 ft through Wednesday, then 2-4 ft on Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Starting off with VCSH at coastal terminals to account for Atlc SHRA lifting NW and crossing portions of the coast. Patchy MVFR cu field this morning but some drier air advecting from the east should limit afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA chances for inland terminals. Have maintained VCSH for MCO/SFB aft 17Z/18Z. SE winds increasing shortly after sunrise becoming enhanced behind a diffuse sea breeze boundary reaching 17-20 knots gusting 25-28 knots especially along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 89 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 20 MCO 90 74 91 75 / 20 10 40 20 MLB 88 79 89 79 / 10 20 10 10 VRB 89 79 90 79 / 10 20 10 20 LEE 91 75 91 75 / 30 30 60 60 SFB 92 75 92 76 / 20 10 30 20 ORL 91 76 91 76 / 20 10 40 20 FPR 88 78 89 78 / 10 20 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.