textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Scattered to numerous storms are expected each afternoon and evening through Friday across east central Florida, with 50-70% chance of rain. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall, which may cause localized minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

- Storms will begin to focus more over the interior from this weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing a diffuse Atlantic sea breeze more quickly inland.

- Seasonably hot and humid. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 100 to 106 each day. When planning to be outdoors, stay well hydrated and consider taking frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Today-Friday... Florida will remain situated between two upper level high pressure systems, one in the Atlantic and one over TX/SW US, as an upper level trough shifts eastward towards the eastern US. Shortwave energy will continue to traverse the base of this trough over the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula. At the surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will slowly shift northward, with the axis remaining over Florida. Locally, offshore (S-SW) flow will persist with speeds 5-10 mph each day. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, turning the winds onshore (E-SE) as the sea breeze pushes inland. Moisture will remain near to slightly above normal, with PW values 1.8-2.3" each day. This will support a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance of showers and storms through the period. Scattered showers and storms are pushing in across the Treasure Coast as well as into Lake County from the south and west this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze has begun to push onshore this afternoon, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward, with scattered storms forming along the sea breeze. CAM guidance shows additional storms developing along the I-95 corridor in the mid-afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, as well as showers and storms forming across the interior by late afternoon and evening. Similar pattern is forecast for Friday. Highest coverage will be across the interior each afternoon and evening where the sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions are forecast to occur.

The environment supports storms each day with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1800-2400 J/kg), ample buoyancy (lifted index of -4 to -7), adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-900 J/kg), and somewhat cooler temperatures aloft (-7C at 500 mb). Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, small hail, and heavy rainfall of 1-3 " which may lead to minor localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. Any lingering activity will diminish around midnight, with activity across the Atlantic waters continuing through the overnight hours. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices of 100-106F. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has upgraded AL96 to Tropical Storm Dolly in the central tropical Atlantic today. Conditions remain unfavorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. There are currently no specific concerns to east central Florida at this time. Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

Saturday-Thursday... Upper level high pressure over the Atlantic and the SW US will merge over the weekend and remain over the southern US/Gulf/Atlantic into early next week. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will continue to shift northward towards the Carolinas into early next week. A frontal boundary will slide southward into the Deep South/Northern Florida this weekend before stalling, eventually becoming diffuse by early next week. Locally, winds will shift onshore (east to southeast) this weekend and remain through at least mid next week as the surface high pressure moves northward of Florida. Moisture across the local area will remain near to above normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.1". Daily afternoon showers and lightning storms are forecast to continue, with scattered storms forming each day along the advancing east coast sea breeze, with additional showers and storms forming across the interior. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior, where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur each evening. Storm hazards will be similar to what they are today through late week. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot and humid with overnight lows continuing to be warm and muggy.

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Today-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions expected. Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, reaching the local waters today and moving north of the area by the weekend and remaining into early next week. Light south to southwest flow will persist through Friday, with winds becoming onshore (east to southeast) and increasing to around 12 KT each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Winds will then shift onshore into the weekend as the high pressure moves north of the area. Seas 1-2ft before increasing to 2-3ft this weekend and into. early next week. A few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong wind gusts remain possible through Friday. Scattered onshore showers and storms will then be possible this weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Activity ending a little earlier this evening than last. Aside from some debris rain around, could still see ISOLD convection thru early-mid evening. VFR conditions continue outside of storms ane expect mainly dry conditions across land overnight with light winds. The ECSB will develop again on Fri and move inland, quicker across the Treasure Coast. Winds will transition E/SE behind this boundary. Recent CAM runs showing less coverage on Fri now so will see if this trend continues. Primary concerns for aviation with Fri storms include local wind gusts 35-45 kts, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 74 91 75 90 / 30 40 20 50 MCO 76 94 76 93 / 50 60 30 70 MLB 75 91 77 90 / 30 30 20 50 VRB 74 91 76 90 / 20 40 40 60 LEE 75 92 75 92 / 20 60 30 70 SFB 75 93 75 93 / 30 60 30 70 ORL 76 93 76 93 / 40 60 30 70 FPR 74 91 76 90 / 10 40 40 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.