textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida from 11 AM through 8 PM for peak afternoon heat indices up to 110F.

- Hot through Saturday, especially across the north where high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will keep heat indices in the mid to upper 100s, with widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts.

- Below normal rain chances 30% or less continue through Friday, then rain chances pick back up closer to normal 30% to 60% from the weekend into early next week, before decreasing again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Today-Tonight...The weak surface pressure ridge axis from the Atlantic High slowing lifts from South Florida towards North Florida, under a high pressure ridge in roughly the same spot. Weak southerly low level flow becomes more variable, allowing the sea breezes to march inland at roughly the same rate, slightly favoring the west coast breeze and the east coast breeze from the Cape south, and colliding across the interior late in the evening. Dry air continues to filter in, knocking rain chances back to just 20% from the Orlando Metro to the Cape north (with the sea breeze collision being the primary focus), and less than 20% to the south. The environment will support rapid updraft growth for deep convection that manages to develop, and the dry air could enhance downdrafts. Primary storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds 40-55 mph (with a very low chance for locally high winds to 60 mph), and torrential downpours. Generally expected a late start for storms after 6 PM, but a few could pop around 4 PM.

While drier as has lowered dew points a few degrees, temperatures are forecast to creep up a few more degrees, with afternoon highs in the M-U90s across most of East Central Florida, within a couple degrees of daily high temperatures records for a few locations (see Climate section below). Resulting peak afternoon Heat Indices will be near to above 108F, up to 110F along the I-95 corridor in Volusia, Brevard, and adjacent portions of inland counties. Widespread Major with areas of Extreme HeatRisk impacts are anticipated. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida from 11 AM to 8 PM. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C or shade if you feel unwell.

A Moderate risk of rip currents continues at the beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone.

Friday-Saturday...The weak surface ridge axis stays more or less over Central Florida, continuing light southerly to southeasterly flow. Very dry air Friday plus a weak onshore component shifts the meager 20% rain chances well inland for most of the area, except to the south where the arrival of higher moisture increases rain chances to 20-30%. High temperatures remain in the M-U90s for most of the area, but the drier air shaves a few degrees off peak afternoon heat indices Friday, bringing them more into the L-M100s. A bit more moisture filters up into Central Florida Saturday, increasing rain chances closer to normal (30-60%), but also nudging peak afternoon heat indices back up towards Heat Advisory criteria near or above 107F. Widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts are forecast both days. Typical afternoon thunderstorm risks continue, though Friday will again be conditional on storms developing.

Sunday-Wednesday...Some relief from the above normal heat is expected next week (not that normal Florida heat isn't still gross) as a trough building into the western Atlantic suppresses the ridge at the surface and aloft, and drier than normal air continues to advect from the south. Despite the drier air, upper level support from the trough and a front with its associated moisture sagging into the Deep South will support near to slightly above normal rain chances and higher cloud cover, knocking afternoon highs closer to normal in the L-M90s (for what that's worth). Widespread Moderate with areas of Major HeatRisk impacts are forecast, along with peak afternoon heat indices in the L-M100s.

MARINE

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Today-Monday...Generally favorable winds and seas. Weak pressure ridge extending to Florida from the Atlantic High will meander north and south across the peninsula through the period, shifting flow from offshore (S-SW) today to more longshore (SW-SE) Friday and Saturday, then back more offshore early next week. The sea breeze circulation will back winds to the S-SE from the afternoon into the early overnight. Wind speeds 5-15 kts, occasionally pushing over 15 kts from the Cape north in the late evenings. Seas 1-3 feet. Low (20% or less) chances for showers and lightning storms through Friday, then chances increase closer to normal (30-60%) through the weekend into early next week, starting near the coast Saturday and Sunday, then expanding into the offshore waters.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFs) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms. Light and variable winds are expected to increase from SW at 6-12kts before backing SE into the aftn/eve except at KLEE. Winds are expected to become light and variable into the overnight. VCTS is forecast at the TAF sites N of KMLB after 20Z/21Z and before 01Z/02Z. The potential exists for an isolated strong storm.

CLIMATE

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week:

Site July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 97 (2202) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 96 (2203) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 96 (2204) 97 (2202) 96 (2200) Fort Pierce 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 95 76 95 76 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 97 76 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 MLB 93 77 92 78 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 94 77 92 77 / 0 0 20 0 LEE 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 20 20 SFB 97 76 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 ORL 97 77 96 77 / 20 20 10 10 FPR 93 76 91 77 / 0 0 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.