textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through this week. The main storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise, frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph will also be possible.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches again today. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Today-tonight... Upper level high pressure will remain in place across the Great Plains as an upper level trough continues to push farther offshore from the NE US coast with its axis sliding down the Florida peninsula into central Florida. Short wave energy aloft will continue to traverse across the Florida peninsula through the day, aiding convection this afternoon and early evening. At the surface, high pressure is surpressed to our south and east and a weak frontal boundary is situated across north Florida and is very slowly shifting southward. This frontal boundary may push into north/central Florida tonight, but confidence remains low. Locally, light westerly winds will shift onshore in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze and push inland. The sea breeze has already formed this afternoon, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur along the I- 95 corridor this afternoon/early evening. Storm motion will be light and north to northwesterly around 10 mph, which will bring activity back towards the coast and out into the Atlantic.

An earlier start to convection today, as scattered showers and storms formed across the west coast of Florida and moved into east central Florida through late morning. Additional storms have moved into east central Florida and are currently heading toward the eastern Coast, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward, with trailing storms around Lake Okeechobee area. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to form this afternoon (PoP 70-80%). Highest coverage will be along the I-95 corridor this afternoon into early evening. An earlier start to convection today, with scattered showers and storms moving across east central Florida, mainly Kissimmee to Melbourne northward, late this morning through early this afternoon. Forecast soundings show a moist profile, although not as moist as it has been the past couple of days, with PW values of 2.0-2.3". The environment supports convection, with plenty of instability (MUCAPE of 1800-2200 J/kg), adequate buoyancy (lifted index of -5 to -6), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 500- 800 J/kg). Temperatures aloft are slightly warmer than they were yesterday (-6 to -6.5C at 500 mb). Because of this, main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and torrential downpours capable of 2-4" in a relatively short period of time, promoting minor/nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for all of east central Florida today.

Seasonable and humid today, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures combined with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-107F. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Sunday... Upper level high pressure across the Great Plains will shift eastward through mid week as the trough off the eastern US coast shifts farther eastward, with the trough axis remaining over the central Florida through Tuesday. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary across north Florida may push farther southward into north-central to central Florida Tuesday before washing out. Mostly diurnal convection through the period with fairly high rain chances through the period, 40-70% Tuesday, and 60-70% Wednesday- Sunday. Storm motion will be fairly weak and erratic, however some activity will periodically push back towards the coast, especially with stronger boundary collisions. Storm impacts will be similar to today, with locally heavy rainfall continuing to be a concern. Seasonable temperatures and humid conditions are forecast each day, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices of 100-107. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Today-Friday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the period. Surface high pressure has been pushed south/east of the local waters leaving a fairly weak pgrad in place. A weak frontal boundary will move into north FL early today and continue to settle further south tonight/Tue toward/into central FL. Westerly flow today will become S/SE at 10-12 KT this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. With the advancing boundary, winds tonight will shift offshore south of the Cape and more N/NE northward thru the night. On Tuesday, winds will shift south to southeast with speeds increasing at 10-12 kts with the sea breeze development each afternoon through the period. Expect earlier initiation of storms developing over land and pushing off of the coast today with initial isolated to scattered storms becoming locally numerous to widespread. Diurnal offshore- moving showers/storms through mid- late week. A few strong storms possible with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds in excessive of 34 KT or greater, and heavy downpours. Coverage of storms will be fairly high early to mid week. Seas locally higher in the vicinity of storms. Seas 1-2 ft thru tonight, building to 2-4 ft again by Tuesday afternoon. Seas continue 3-4 ft on Wednesday, possibly 5 ft across the Volusia waters into Wednesday evening gradually subsiding to 2-3ft Wednesday night-Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Light and variable winds through this morning as a boundary sags southward across the Florida peninsula, with winds becoming more onshore behind the boundary after 14Z. VCSH/VCTS possible around 15Z along the coast, with activity pushing inland as VCSH by 16Z and becoming VCTS after 19Z. Lingering VCSH will be possible after 22Z along the coast, with conditions drying out areawide by 03Z. TEMPOs/PROB30s will likely be added with the next forecast package. Winds become light once again overnight at or below 5 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 88 77 89 76 / 40 30 50 10 MCO 90 76 91 75 / 60 20 70 10 MLB 89 78 90 78 / 40 20 50 10 VRB 88 76 89 76 / 50 30 50 10 LEE 90 76 91 76 / 70 40 60 10 SFB 90 76 91 76 / 60 20 70 10 ORL 90 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 10 FPR 88 75 89 76 / 50 30 50 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.