textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 151 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

- The chilliest weather since last winter is expected the next couple mornings, especially over the interior where wind chills in the low to mid 40s are forecast.

- The next chance for rainfall will be early to mid-week next week, but there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. At least minor coastal and marine impacts appear increasingly likely mid to late week. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin over previous weeks. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Today-Sunday...The chilliest night and mornings for East Central Florida since March are expected this weekend. A series of cold fronts the last couple days associated with a substantial low pressure system lifting northeast from New England and the Canadian Maritimes have delivered progressively cooler and drier air. NBM statistics show a bimodal distribution of low temperatures across the members, with the lower cluster near the official forecast, and the other cluster 5-10 degrees warmer. The warmer temperatures are possible where overnight northerly winds hold closer to 10 mph and mixing counters radiational cooling and advection. MOS guidance continues signal low temperatures close to the NBM 10th percentile (L-M40s) and would only be realized where winds go light. The official forecast calls for temperatures to drop to the M40s-M50s for a couple hours prior to sunrise, coldest inland and mildest along the Space and Treasure Coasts. Wind chills are forecast to sink to the L40-M40s for those couple couple hours before sunrise across all but the I-95 corridor of the Space and Treasure Coasts, and portions of the southernmost counties. Temperatures this afternoon only climb into the 60s, approaching 70 along the southern coast. Winds pick up to around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

High pressure at the surface behind the front builds towards the eastern seaboard Saturday night into Sunday, which starts to shift winds onshore (NE). Temperatures at inland locations are again forecast to drop to the M-U40s for a couple hours before sunrise Sunday morning, but along the coast onshore flow will have already started the warming trend, where lows are forecast in the 50s, approaching 60 on the southern coast. Wind chills again sink to the L-M40s across the interior. Afternoon temperatures Sunday are back in the 70s. Gentle winds may be gusty at times.

Dry through the period with low relative humidity and mostly clear skies. There is a Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents at the beaches. Always swim near the lifeguard, and never swim alone if you enter the surf during this chilly weekend.

Monday-Tuesday...Aloft, deep troughing over the Atlantic seaboard gradually shifts offshore and a broad ridge amplifies while moving over the eastern half of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will settle over the eastern US with the southern flank draped across the Florida peninsula, shifting onshore winds more easterly. A couple lobes of vorticity are expected to undercut the ridge, sliding from the trough in the western US across the south central US and toward the southeast while developing a weak surface disturbance. This disturbance is forecast to wash out as it moves into the Gulf, but will help to tighten the pressure gradient across the area between the high pressure to the north and the frontal boundaries stalled to the south, while also delivering some moisture into an otherwise dry airmass. Low chances (20% or less) for onshore moving shower return to the coast Monday, then increase to 20-50% and push farther inland Tuesday. Isolated lightning storms are not expected Monday, then low (20% or less) chances return Tuesday. Will need to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall very closely due to how sensitive parts of ECFL are after previous extreme rainfall, but right now it's too far out to tell where if any threats may develop. Breezy and gusty conditions forecast as winds increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoons. Winds inland settle to around 10 mph with less frequent gusts overnight, but along the coast will remain breezy and gusty. Gradual warming but temperatures stay near to below normal, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Poor to hazardous beach and marine conditions will be possible.

Wednesday-Friday...Decent model agreement in the overall upper level pattern, driven by persistent troughing over the western US, but there is some uncertainty where a low pressure system may develop in the adjacent Atlantic waters that could produce local coastal impacts. East of the Rockies, ridging aloft is shunted southeast by mid- upper level troughing sliding across the northern Plains towards the Great Lakes, causing the ridge to cutoff the trough over the Atlantic waters east of the ridge. The extent to which the ridge is suppressed, and where the cutoff low over the Atlantic develops remains uncertain. Surface high pressure should remain anchored to the eastern seaboard with Florida under the southern flank, but how tight the pressure gradient stays or becomes, depends on development and evolution of the cut-off low. A tighter pressure gradient would result stronger onshore flow that could produce hazardous beach and marine conditions. At this juncture all models keep the highest moisture and heaviest rainfall over the Atlantic, but will need to monitor trends. At least isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are forecast, and the gradual warming trend is expected to continue with near normal temperatures mid-week on the warmer side late week.

MARINE

Issued at 151 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions this morning improve in the nearshore waters by the afternoon, but will remain poor offshore the rest of the day. Northerly winds 15-25 kts are forecast to east to 10-15 kts in the afternoon, but not after building seas to 5-7 ft in the Gulf Stream and 3-5 ft near most of the coast. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Central Florida Atlantic waters until 11 AM, and small craft should continue to exercise caution in the Gulf Stream the rest of the day. Dry conditions expected.

Sunday...Better boating conditions as high pressure builds towards the eastern seaboard, with the southern flank settling across central Florida and the local Atlantic. Winds veer onshore (NE-ENE) at 10-15 kts, and seas continue to settle to 2-4 ft. Mostly dry conditions, but isolated marine showers could develop.

Monday-Wednesday...Boating conditions deteriorate again, becoming poor to hazardous as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a weakening disturbance moving from the Gulf to near or south of Florida. Onshore (ENE) winds increase to 15-25 kts across the local Atlantic waters through the day Monday and Tuesday, and are forecast to further increase to 20-25 kts on Wednesday, possibly up to 30 kts. Seas are forecast to build to 3-5 ft Monday, 5-7 ft Tuesday, and 7-9 ft Wednesday. Rain and storm chances quickly from 20% or less Monday to 50-70% Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions through the period with NNW winds around 10 knots. No rain is anticipated at the terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 151 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Very dry conditions continue today behind a series of fronts, but winds should remain below critical thresholds. Min RH values are forecast to drop to 35-45% for most of the area. There is a 20% chance for RH values to drop below 30% across the western interior if more effective mixing than forecast is realized. Northerly winds increase to around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph from the late morning through sunset. Winds shift onshore (NE Sunday and ENE Monday), bringing RHs above critical values.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 151 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for Cocoa (COCF1), Geneva (GENF1), Sanford (SNFF1), and Astor (ASTF1) on the St. Johns. The river west of Cocoa is in Major Flood Stage and forecast to continue a slow rise through the weekend, crest some time next week, then may begin to decline by late next week. The other points are within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid next week, but there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any implications for ongoing flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 64 50 71 58 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 65 48 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 67 56 74 65 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 69 55 76 64 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 64 46 71 54 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 65 47 72 55 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 65 48 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 68 54 76 63 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552- 555-570-572-575.