textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures remaining 10 to 20-plus degrees above normal through Wednesday

- Widespread round of rain (about a 50 to 80 percent-plus chances) expected Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A few thunderstorms are possible later Tuesday night.

- More precipitation expected Thursday afternoon into Friday, with rain gradually mixing with and switching over to light snow

- Temperatures trending back toward normal by the weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued 100 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Tonight through Wednesday:

Warm temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected this afternoon, with the gusty southwest winds ahead of a frontal boundary. This boundary should shift southward through the area this evening and to the south later tonight. There may be enough low to mid-level moisture per forecast soundings with the surface boundary to help generate a few sprinkles this evening.

Winds will shift to the northeast and east later this evening and overnight, with easterly winds on Tuesday, as low pressure develops in the central Plains. This should keep the area on the cool side of this system. This low level flow should allow for low stratus clouds to move into the area overnight into Tuesday morning, perhaps lingering into the afternoon and night periods. There is some fog potential as well with these clouds, but not seeing high enough dew points over the water to be concerned about lake fog moving onshore at this time.

Lows tonight should be in the middle to upper 30s, with highs Tuesday in the 50s well inland and 40s closer to the lake.

The warm front should move northeast through the area Tuesday night and exit Wednesday morning, with winds shifting to the west southwest and becoming gusty Wednesday in the dry slot area. The frontogenesis response and focused warm air advection Tuesday night, along with the passing 500 mb shortwave trough and upper divergence from jet streak coupling aloft, should bring a period of rain to the area. CAMs suggest that the better organized precipitation may remain north of the area, so the rain may be more showery in nature.

Forecast soundings continue to show small amounts of elevated CAPE, so a few thunderstorms remain possible later Tuesday night. Mild low temperatures Tuesday night should help Wednesday highs reach into the upper 50s north to the lower 60s southeast.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 100 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Wednesday night through Monday:

The next low pressure system will approach the area from the southwest later Wednesday night into Thursday, before shifting northeast either through or nearby the area Thursday night into Friday. This is accompanied by a fairly potent 500 mb shortwave trough/low pushing through the region.

There is still some uncertainty in ensembles on the surface low track, which will impact the type of precipitation over the area. For now, it appears that it may start out as mainly rain Thursday evening, before mixing with snow later Thursday night into Friday morning and ending with light snow later Friday.

Will continue to monitor the trends with this low pressure system and its potential impacts for southern Wisconsin as we get closer to this period. Temperatures may remain mild Wednesday night into Thursday night/Friday, though a lot will depend on the low track.

It looks relatively dry behind this system for next weekend into Monday, as high pressure gradually shifts toward the area. Temperatures may trend closer to seasonal normal values per ensemble output.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 100 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will gradually weaken by sunset, ahead of a frontal boundary. This boundary should shift southward through the area this evening and to the south later tonight. There may be enough low to mid-level moisture with this boundary to help generate a few sprinkles this evening.

Light winds will shift to the northeast and east later this evening and overnight, with easterly winds on Tuesday, as low pressure develops in the central Plains.

This low level flow should allow for low ceilings down to 800 to 1500 feet AGL to move into the area overnight into Tuesday morning, perhaps lingering into the afternoon and night periods. There is some fog potential as well with these clouds, but not seeing high enough dew points over the water to be concerned about lake fog moving onshore at this time.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 100 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will become northwest to north and weaken tonight, with low pressure around 29.9 inches moving across northern Lake Huron. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan until 6 PM CST this evening. Winds will then become east Tuesday morning and increase during the afternoon, ahead of the next approaching low pressure system.

East to southeast winds will increase later Tuesday into Tuesday night, as strong low pressure around 29.2 inches moves toward the region. Easterly gales are possible later Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon over the northern third of the lake, where a Gale Watch is in effect. The warmer airmass over the chilly lake waters may limit the mixing down of higher gusts elsewhere across the lake.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan from later Tuesday afternoon into later Wednesday afternoon, for gusty winds and building waves.

After somewhat lighter winds later Wednesday into Thursday, winds will likely increase Thursday night into Friday night, as another strong low pressure system around 29.2 inches moves through the region. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels once again during this period.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Monday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM Tuesday to 3 PM Wednesday.

Gale Watch...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...midnight Wednesday to 3 PM Wednesday.