textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread snow tonight. Heavy snow at times this evening especially over ern WI, possibly lingering into the early morning hours over east central WI. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect. - Blowing and drifting snow is a concern on Sunday as winds pick up behind the departing system.

- Below normal temperatures and a few chances for additional snow expected through the coming week.

UPDATE

Issued 800 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

1-1.5 inch/hour snowfall rates have been observed the last several hours over se WI westward to portions of south central WI. This continues as the lead shortwave trough and associated PVA and warm advection at the jet level couples with low to mid level warm, moist advection via the nose of sly low level jet over srn WI. The sly low level jet will shift ewd into lower MI by late this evening while the shortwave trough continues newd away from the region. Some decrease in snowfall rates are expected over south central WI and eventually se WI but at least light snow will continue all night as the secondary shortwave trough tracks across far nrn IL with PVA maximized over srn WI.

For east central WI, mid level warm advection and frontogenesis will shift nwd into said region by late evening into the overnight via the deepening of the 700 mb low, thereby enhancing the snowfall rates. In addition, lake enhancement will focus over Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties through the evening into the overnight. At the surface, low pressure of 1010 mb over far ern IA will deepen another 2-3 millibars as it reaches Chicago around 06Z then reaches central lower MI by 12Z Sun. An inverted sfc trough extending north of the sfc low early this evening over wrn WI will rotate counterclockwise as the low moves away, making for a fairly sharp convergence line the will sweep south from east central WI into se WI during the early morning hours. This feature will move fairly quickly but also produce a quick burst of enhanced snow. Thus east central WI will see 4-7 inches tnt with storm totals of 8-13 inches with highest over the lake counties. The remainder of srn WI will also have storm totals of 8-13 inches with possibly lesser amounts well nw of Madison.

Gehring

SHORT TERM

Issued 255 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

This afternoon through Sunday:

The ongoing winter storm continues to look largely on track compared to the forecast over the last day or two. Overall, still expecting widespread storm totals of 8 to 12 inches, with some locally higher amounts possible along and east of the Kettle Moraine.

The most notable difference from earlier expectations with this storm so far was the lower snow to liquid ratios this morning. The overall average was around 10 to 1, with a sandier compact snowfall across southern Wisconsin. Looking at models soundings through the morning, it appears that the best lift was largely not lined up with the dendrite growth zone, likely contributing to the lack of dendrites and smaller flakes/ice crystals. Expecting more lift in the DGZ in soundings for the afternoon and evening though, leading to higher confidence in SLRs closer to 12-15 to 1. Current appearance of snow falling in the area looks like bigger flakes and more dendrites than earlier.

The overall liquid equivalent precipitation forecast hasn't changed much at all from previous expectations. Latest guidance has totals ranging from 0.65"-0.9" north to south across the western two-thirds of the forecast area, with totals up to an inch in the east. A few mesoscale models still exceed an inch in the east due to the lake enhancement and low level convergence this afternoon into tonight. There continues to be run to run variance among the models with where exactly these highest totals will occur in the east.

The most impactful snowfall with this storm is still expected to be through this evening most places, with some higher rates hanging on in the east into tonight. Models have slowed just a touch with the timing of the snow exiting early Sunday, so now thinking there may still be some accumulating snow in the east between 6 and 8 am, with snow coming to a quick end by around 9 am. Additionally, gusty winds developing by early Sunday may result in some blowing and drifting snowfall through at least the morning, especially in the east. This could warrant the need for a Winter Weather Advisory through at least morning after the Winter Storm Warning expires.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 255 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Sunday night through Saturday:

Continued signal for stretch of Arctic air settling into the region into the start of the week. Sunday night temps fall into the single digits with the exception of the lakeshore, but winds chills are expected to dip a bit lower to around zero and even below zero in a few locations. Continue with the cold, below normal temps for Monday as high pressure works its way across the region with daytime temps creeping only into the lower 20s and single digit overnight lows. However, a mid-level shortwave trough is progged to dig across the plains and lift up the Ohio River Valley overnight Monday and pull in enough moisture to clip southern portion of the CWA. Model trends do have this system trekking a bit further north than yesterday, thus there is an increasing chance to see some better snow accumulations with this system. Latest trend suggests additional amounts anywhere from few tenths to around an inch given the moist, saturated profile aloft sitting at below freezing with modest lift from mid-level dCVA and northern fringes of the low- level WAA in the DGZ.

Tuesday will remain chilly as another high pressure tracks across the region, but midweek will see temps warm a bit back toward normal, but still on the colder side of climo. This trend will be short-lived as the pattern becomes more active with a series of clippers traversing the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions into next weekend. This will start off with an Arctic cold front expected to drop temps back down 15-20F below normal on later Wednesday into Thursday and may bring an additional round of snow. Then long-range models continue to show a series of clippers developing and tracking across the region Friday and Saturday yielding additional snowfall accumulations. Will continue to monitor these wintry trends, but meteorological winter (December 1st) looks to coincide with the onset of our wintry weather this year.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 800 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Widespread snow tnt with vsbys mainly from 1/2-1 mile with Cigs below 1 kft. The snow will diminish Sun AM with Cigs rising to MVFR Cigs. Clouds will then decrease from late afternoon into the evening with VFR conditions prevailing for the night.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 255 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Breezy east to southeasterly winds will gradually pick up through the afternoon across the southern portion of Lake Michigan as low pressure over northern MO lift south of the lake this evening. Still expecting southeasterly gales for the southern third of the lake and the Gale Warning remains in effect into tonight as well as small craft conditions for the southeastern WI nearshore waters. Then the low pressure is expected to deepen as it lifts into lower MI overnight into Sunday. Will see winds back to the northwest across all of the lake into Sunday. Expecting winds to ramp back up to small craft levels in the nearshores and gale force out over the open waters, especially for the east side of Lake Michigan through the evening. Given the confidence of the gusty winds building behind the departing low, will upgrade to a Gale Warning for Sunday. Winds will gradually ease Sunday night into Monday as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes exiting to the east Monday night.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Storm Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056- WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065- WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 6 AM Sunday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 9 PM Saturday.

Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Sunday to 7 PM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 11 PM Sunday.