textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow continues into this afternoon in far southeast Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM CST in Milwaukee, Racine & Kenosha Counties, where generally 2 to 4 inches of snow are expected mainly east of I-94.

- Bitterly cold wind chills between 20 and 25 below expected over all of southern Wisconsin tonight into Monday morning. Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect between 12 AM and 12 PM CST Monday.

- Overnight wind chills in the negative teens expected Monday night through Wednesday night.

UPDATE

Issued 1019 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The lake effect snow band persisted over most of Milwaukee County and parts of Racine through 9 AM. Downtown Milwaukee to the Shorewood area had 1 to 3 inches by then. It looked like it was going to hold together into the afternoon based on radar trends over the northern lake and forecast wind and reflectivity fields on the meso models. However, the reflectivity has diminished significantly over the past hour. Nevertheless, at least light lake effect snow showers will persist into the mid afternoon hours. Westerly winds should increase enough to push it offshore of Kenosha and Racine counties by late afternoon.

Elsewhere, flurries are occurring across most of southern WI this morning and this is due to cloud cover within the snow growth zone (due to the cold temps).

I made adjustments to the pops along the lakeshore and also snowfall totals, bumping them up to the 3 to 5 inch range in eastern portions of the southeast WI counties, with locally higher amounts possible right along the lakeshore.

Cronce

SHORT TERM

Issued 345 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Today through Monday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Lake effect snow has blossomed over the western half of Lake Michigan early this morning. Activity began as a series of mesovortices last evening, with regional radar mosaics & the TMKE terminal doppler indicating that a transition to a single northeast-southwest band is currently in-progress. Once it consolidates, anticipate said band to continue to point into far southeastern Wisconsin into this afternoon, with embedded periods of moderate to locally heavy rates supporting appreciable snow accumulation mainly east of I-94 in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM CST in these locations. Lake effect snow potential will wane during the second half of the afternoon as high pressure builds into the Northern Plains. Said high will migrate into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight, ushering a modestly colder air mass into southern Wisconsin. Combined with breezy northwest winds, the arriving colder air will allow wind chills to fall into the 20 to 25 below range areawide tonight, with conditions lasting into Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory has thus been issued between 12 AM and 12 PM CST Monday over all of southern Wisconsin. Dress in layers & limit exposed skin if needing to be outdoors late tonight through Monday morning.

Rest of Overnight through Today: Lake effect snow will continue in far southeast Wisconsin through the mid afternoon hours. Apparent in visibility observations & radar presentation, rates have been primarily light to occasionally moderate in initially-arriving activity early this morning. Suspect that these lighter rates are at least partially a result of the ongoing transition from a primarily mesolow to banded mode in the lake effect snows, and that periods of moderate to locally heavy rates will increase as the northeast- southwest band becomes better organized through this morning. Once fully formed, expect that boundary layer convergence will continue to direct the lake effect band into far southeastern Wisconsin through the first half of the afternoon hours. As such, forecast snow accumulations generally in the 2-4 inch range remain on track, with the bulk of accumulation expected to occur to the east of I-94 in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties. Could see a few locally higher totals in the 5 to 6 inch range near the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline, where residence time of embedded moderate to heavy rates will be greatest. Still anticipate a northwest low level wind shift by mid-afternoon, which will push lake effect snow out over Lake Michigan. This puts the scheduled 3 PM CST end time for the Winter Weather Advisory on track as of this forecast, though trends will continue to be monitored through today. Budget extra travel time if planning to be on the roads in far southeast Wisconsin today.

Quigley

LONG TERM

Issued 345 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Monday night through Saturday:

An upper level low will move from central Manitoba into the northern Great Lakes Region late Monday night into Tuesday. Southwest winds ahead of this low will bring temperatures up into the upper single digits to even some low teens for a few locations Monday. As the sfc low tracks across southern Ontario and Lake Superior, early Tuesday a cold front will track across the state. Largely dry conditions are expected with this frontal passage and weak cold air advection kicks back in behind the front. Can't rule out a couple flurries making it to the ground across central and eastern portions of the CWA, but these flurries will be battling low level dry air the entire way. Little to no accumulations are expected.

The pattern for sfc high pressure, northwest flow, and upper level troughs/shortwaves will persist through the extended. The northwest flow will keep temperatures in the teens during the day and around 0 overnight through Friday. The next chance for precipitation will come Wednesday. Not really enthused about this chance either with the average among guidance putting in 10-15% chance POPs. This clipper system will take a very similar path to late Monday into Tuesday system, but there will be a large area of high pressure out ahead of it and a second high pressure system on its heels. This will create a very narrow window for lift along the trough axis and there will be a lot of dry air to overcome. The weak signals of moisture return that were present yesterday have disappeared with the last two runs which makes it unsurprising that POPs have gone down (NBM can sometimes lag behind). If we do get some precipitation it will be snow and will likely be flurries that struggle to make it to the ground. Little to not accumulations expected.

Beyond this, not much to write about. Largely dry conditions with a strong high pressure system parking over the central CONUS. With the cold temperatures over the warm lake there could be more lake effect shenanigans, but this should largely stay off the Wisconsin shoreline the persistent northwest winds through Saturday. Long range guidance tends to bleed a bit with the larger resolution so could see 10-20% chances POPs sneak off the lake at times. One positive in the extended, is there are increasing odds that we see temperatures climb back to the realm of near normal (highs in the 20s) for the weekend.

Patterson

AVIATION

Issued 1019 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

MVFR ceilings with bases around 2500 ft overspread all of southern WI this morning. These clouds are within the snow growth zone, so expect flurries to fall out of them through at least early afternoon. There is more uncertainty this afternoon due to an anticipated lifting of the cigs to VFR around 4000ft.

Lake effect snow showers will continue through mid afternoon before northwest winds increase enough to push it offshore. Rates should be 0.25 inch per hour with a few pockets of higher rates up to 0.5 in/hr, based on the diminishing reflectivity trends late this morning.

Cronce

MARINE

Issued 345 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

1032 mb high pressure is entrenched across northern Wisconsin this morning, with a band of lake effect snow ongoing over west-central portions of the open waters. The two features are thus contributing to east-northeast winds over eastern Lake Michigan with west- northwest winds further west. The surface pressure drop affiliated with the lake effect snow band will continue to sharpen through today as a new area of 1042 mb high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains, resulting in increasing wind gusts from late morning into the afternoon hours. Gusts between 25-30 knots are possible over the southern half of the waters, though they should remain below gale thresholds. Snow will continue through this afternoon.

Low pressure of 1000 mb will move from the Appalachian Mountains into the northeastern United States tonight as 1040 mb high pressure builds further into the central and southern Great Plains. Progression of the two features will maintain breezy northwest winds over the open waters, with additional periods of 25-30 knot gusts possible into Monday morning across the southern half of the lake. 1032 mb high pressure will build into the Ohio River Valley Monday afternoon and night as 1010 mb low pressure attempts to form over Lake Superior, resulting in a west-southwest wind shift across Lake Michigan. Winds will become gusty at times Monday night into Tuesday morning, when a few gales are possible over the southern third of the open waters. While any gales are not expected to be widespread at this time, trends will continue to be monitored for potential headlines in coming forecasts.

Winds will trend west-northwesterly Tuesday afternoon and night as 1030 mb high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. Winds will gradually taper Wednesday through Thursday as said area of high pressure moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Elevated waves and cold temperatures will support moderate to heavy freezing spray tonight through Tuesday afternoon, with a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remaining in effect between 6 PM CST this evening and 6 PM CST Tuesday.

Increasing winds and waves will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions in nearshore zones later today. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at 12 PM CST from Milwaukee and points south, and at 6 PM CST in zones further north. The gusty winds and waves will continue into Monday morning. A brief decrease in readings is anticipated through Monday afternoon, with advisory-level wind gusts returning Monday evening through Tuesday. Rather than covering the prolonged period of advisory conditions with two separate headlines, have elected to extend the Small Craft Advisories going into effect later today through Tuesday afternoon in the overnight forecast. Conditions will gradually improve Tuesday evening through mid-week as high pressure builds in from the west.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 3 PM Sunday.

Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056- WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065- WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071- WIZ072...midnight Monday to noon Monday.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...6 PM Sunday to 6 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...6 PM Sunday to 6 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Tuesday.