textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder temps mainly in the 30s with a couple days in the 40s are forecast for the work week. Mostly dry conditions are forecast. - Next chances for precipitation (20-40%) Thursday into Thursday night.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Today and Tonight:

Low level warm air advection is underway and temperatures are not expected to drop much early this morning, despite the low clouds gradually clearing from west to east. Temperatures will hover in the lower 20s and then rise into mid to upper 30s across most of southern WI by late afternoon.

There was a prior mention of a freezing rain chance toward central WI for this afternoon, but upstream obs and forecast RH and profiles suggest that there will be too much dry air for rain to reach the ground. It is looking more like virga, so we Keep the forecast dry for now.

A strong low level jet will reinforce the mild air over srn WI during the overnight hours. Lows tonight will only drop into the lower 30s, except upper 20s toward central WI.

The combination of weak vorticity advection, warm air advection, and some pooling of low level moisture ahead of an approaching surface trough will lead to some low clouds developing overnight. Ice crystal development is not likely, so there was a discussion about the potential for freezing drizzle. However, the moisture and forcing appear to be disjointed and we kept the forecast dry at this time.

Cronce

LONG TERM

Issued 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

Temperatures will be very mild to start the day Tuesday. Low pressure crossing Ontario will push an associated surface trough through southeast WI during the morning. Cold advection is expected to dominate with brisk WNW winds so temperatures will not make much upward progress during the day. Southern WI will remain in weak cyclonic flow Wednesday and under high pressure Wed nt. Clouds are expected to linger in east central WI Wed and keep temps just below freezing there. Meanwhile, weak warm advection may nose into southwest WI and bring high temperatures briefly into the mid 30s. Clear and calm conditions Wed nt will allow temps to drop into the teens for most of southern WI.

A weak shortwave trough crossing the Upper Midwest may bring a swath of light snow to west central and portions of southern WI on Thursday. However, the focus for precip looks like it will shift toward IA/MO/IL by Thu afternoon/evening, with the stuff over srn WI drying up or at least losing its forcing. Once the focus shifts south of WI, we should be dry from Friday night through the weekend with high pressure over the Great Lakes. Temperatures look to gradually rise through this period, with most afternoons reaching above freezing, and with lows each night in the 20s. This is above normal for this time of year.

Temperature spread in models: Not surprising, Tuesday has a broad distribution of max temps between the models, with a higher probability in the warmer range. The current forecast is more toward the 75th percentile and may need to be lowered with subsequent forecasts. The MaxT probability for Wed is clearly showing a bimodal distribution and the current gridded forecast lies in the mean, which is around the 70th percentile. This is due to the front bisecting our forecast area and is showing the two scenarios depending on where that front actually ends up. Thu also has a bimodal distribution, but to a much lesser extent and the current forecast is leaning toward the warmer side in the 75th percentile.

Cronce

AVIATION

Issued 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The stratus is eroding away from the western edge which is near Lone Rock. Expect the dry air to keep eroding this stratus deck from west to east through daybreak. Stratus may linger toward Sheboygan through mid morning before clearing, but trends indicate that the clearing will start to speed up. MVFR cigs around 2000 ft are lingering over SBM as well, but have become VFR elsewhere.

High clouds are expected through the day. Strong warm air advection will kick in this evening which will produce low level wind shear at all terminals. Early Tuesday morning, low ceilings are expected to work their way into southern WI behind a cold front.

Cronce

MARINE

Issued 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Brisk southerly winds will persist over Lake Michigan overnight as high pressure of 30.5 inches stalls over the eastern Great Lakes and low pressure of 29.6 inches crosses Manitoba and into Ontario. Steady southeast winds will build marginally high waves in the nearshore zones north of Port Washington tonight and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until mid morning.

The associated surface trough will cross Lake Michigan Monday night and bring brisk west to northwest winds Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure of 30.4 inches will cross the Great Lakes Wednesday night through Saturday.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 9 AM Monday.