textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and dry weather expected late tonight through Saturday morning.

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Saturday afternoon and evening (50-90% chance).

- Mostly below normal temps for early next week.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1132 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Wly winds, cold advection and clearing skies will prevail the remainder of the night in the wake of the cold front. The large upper low building into Ontario will then remain there into early next week with weak shortwave troughs rotating through WI. The only impactful trough will be Sat afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. After a pleasant Friday, warm advection will ensue Fri nt into Sat with some moisture return expected. MLCAPEs are expected to rise to perhaps 1500 J/KG Sat afternoon with 50 kt of unidirectional deep layer shear. Given the favorable timing of the afternoon and evening, some severe storms with damaging winds and large hail will be possible. Afterward, partly cloudy skies and cooler temps will prevail for Sun-Mon given the nwly flow pattern.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 1132 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Tuesday through Thursday:

Stronger shortwave troughs will then arrive on nwly flow aloft during this period. The first upper trough will bring rain chances of 50-70 percent Tue afternoon, but the second upper trough may result in substantial cyclogenesis from the nrn Great Plains into the Great Lakes for Wed-Wed nt. This would bring a return of thunderstorms and potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 1132 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

LLWS via a nwly low level jet of 40 kt is expected early Fri AM. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail Thu-Thu nt.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 1132 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Modest to breezy west winds are expected late this evening into the overnight due to the passage of low pressure and its cold front. Modest to breezy westerly winds will continue Friday and shift to the southwest Friday night into Saturday in advance of a cold front passage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected with the frontal passage. Modest northwest winds can be expected with the frontal passage late Saturday night continuing through Sunday morning.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 4 AM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 11 PM Thursday.