textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will continue to push southward and out of the area by middle to late evening. Some light snow may mix in with the rain before ending. No accumulations are expected. Gusty north northeast winds should linger into tonight, with colder temperatures.

- Cooler conditions will persist Friday, with scattered snow showers possible Friday afternoon and evening (15 to 40 percent chance). Highest confidence towards east central Wisconsin.

- Return to warmer temperatures for this weekend into early next week.

- Trending active next week, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued 716 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

An area of mainly light rain will continue to push southward this evening, exiting the far southern counties by middle to late evening. This is generally being driven by 700 to 500 mb frontogenesis response. Cold air advection on the backside of the area of light rain with the gusty north northeast winds may bring a mix of light snow before ending. No accumulations are expected, as the ground temperatures should remain mild enough to melt any snow that mixes in. The gusty north northeast winds will linger tonight, with cold air advection bringing colder temperatures into the area. These winds should help dry out roads overnight, so not expecting impacts from slick spots.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

After a quick intense burst of winds along the cold front this morning, north-northeasterly winds have settled in to gust between 30 and 35 mph this afternoon. Winds will continue through tonight, potentially reaching 40 mph near Lake Michigan overnight. Showers are in the process of becoming widespread (80% coverage) this afternoon, with rain then continuing into this evening before tapering off west to east. An isolated bolt of lightning is possible across far southern Wisconsin this afternoon (~15% chance).

Temperatures will continue to fall through this afternoon as CAA continues. Shortly after sunset, expect widespread temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Overnight after precipitation ends and Arctic high pressure presses southward, expect temperatures to fall into the low 20s (upper 20s near Lake Michigan).

Friday, light northerly winds in the morning will shift to become northwesterly as high pressure builds in the central Plains and a 500 mb shortwave propagates eastward through the upper level ridging. Northwest winds will become gusty between 20 and 25 mph during the afternoon hours. This shortwave will also be capable of producing brief, quick-moving snow showers in central to southeastern Wisconsin. These showers are expected to be scattered (15 to 25% coverage), and produce minimal accumulations. Still, may see briefly reduced visibilities underneath heavier showers. Highs in the upper 30s within the cloud cover of these showers, and in the low 40s elsewhere.

Shortwave moves offshore into Friday night, with winds diminishing after sunset as Arctic high pressure builds in from the Plains. Expect lows in the low 20s.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure overhead will keep thing quiet, dry and cool for Saturday across southern WI. Only looking at highs in the 40s with a few spots in southwestern WI approaching 50F. However as the high pressure pushes off to the east-southeast, upper-level ridge builds as southerly low-level flow and WAA pattern will begins to take hold over the region for the end of the weekend into the start of next week. Above normal temps will steadily rise each day beginning Sunday topping off in the 60s for inland locations, but we are entering the "cooler by the lake" season so lakeshore areas will remain cooler by 5-15 degrees. Expecting even warmer temps for Monday into Tuesday with the persisting WAA pattern before the potential front pushes through by midweek.

Accompanying this spring warm up will be a more active weather pattern. The WPC cluster analysis shows the upper-level ridge axis shifting east with a series of troughs swinging across the region through the middle of next week. Still plenty of uncertainty as timing and strength of the troughs and accompanying surface feature remain variable. Nevertheless, looking at a more active pattern in the extended with daily precip and thunderstorm chances beginning Tuesday. Timing and location will ultimately depend on the systems track as well of the timing and movement of the frontal passage or if it stalls over the area.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 716 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

An area of mainly light rain will continue to push southward this evening, exiting the far southern terminals by middle to late evening. Colder air moving in on the backside of the light rain with the gusty north northeast winds may bring a mix of light snow before ending. No accumulations are expected, as the ground temperatures should remain mild enough to melt any snow that mixes in.

Visibility should range from 3 to 6 miles with the precipitation, with ceilings in the 1000 to 2000 foot AGL range, and lower amounts down to around 500 feet AGL possible at times for Milwaukee, Waukesha and Kenosha.

The gusty north northeast winds will linger tonight. These winds should help dry out runways overnight, so not expecting impacts from slick spots. Winds will briefly weaken and shift to the north in the morning and northwest by midday into the afternoon. The northwest winds will become gusty, with gusts to around 20 knots possible in the afternoon.

Scattered snow showers are expected Friday afternoon and early evening, with visibility down to 1 mile or less possible for around 10 minutes or so in the heaviest snow showers. There could be a dusting of snow from these snow showers, most likely toward Sheboygan. Added a PROB30 group for this potential Friday afternoon at the Sheboygan terminal.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

High pressure of 30.7 inches will press from the Canadian Prairies southward into the Northern Plains tonight into Friday morning as low pressure of 29.5 inches in Illinois slides eastward. This will bring gusty north winds to Lake Michigan. Expecting widespread gales of 35 to 40 kt across the southern two-thirds of the Lake, with a few isolated gales to 35 kt possible across the northern third. Winds will gradually diminish late tonight into Friday morning as high pressure builds into the northern Plains and western portions of the Upper Midwest. High pressure will continue to slide southeastward on Friday, with northwesterly winds developing as it passes to the south Friday night. Winds will gradually back to southerly into Saturday afternoon as low pressure around 29.7 inches develops in the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Winds then remain south-southwesterly through Monday as ridging builds across the southeast U.S.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644- LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 5 AM Friday.