textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A lake effect snow band is likely (60 percent chance) over far southeast WI today with around an inch forecast.

- Very light snow accumulations are likely later Sunday into Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

Issued 345 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Today through Monday:

The area of light snow that brought a dusting to ern WI has shifted into IL. The next round will be a north to south lake effect snow band already over the wrn half of the lake. It appears it will affect far ern MKE, Racine and Kenosha Counties then shift slowly south and east. Overall the snowfall rates should be light as the lake to 850 mb temp differences decrease through the morning, but brief moderate rates possible. Around an inch of snow accumulation.

For later today and tnt, a sfc ridge extending from the arctic high over the srn Great Plains will shift across srn WI. High temps will warm into the lower 20s today, but good radiational cooling conditions will drop temps back down into the single digits for tnt.

A shortwave trough within nwly flow aloft will slowly move across srn WI late Sun afternoon and night, while its sfc trough and cold front weakens with time. Enough PVA, weak warm advection, and saturation will support light snow with snow accums under an inch. The weak cold front will pass early Mon AM, but temps will remains similar to Sun with highs in the middle 20s both days.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 345 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Tuesday through Friday:

Nwly flow aloft with embedded shortwave troughs will prevail for this period. The ECMWF Ens mean and GEFS MSLP differ some for the remainder of the week but overall a weak trough of low pressure will track from the central USA to the east coast, followed by low pressure of some degree approaching from Canada and moving through the Great Lakes. There are 30-50% chances for light snow for Thu-Fri. Temps will continue to warm to near normal values.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 345 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Areas of MVFR Cigs through the morning over srn WI with periodic lake effect snow from KMKE to KENW. Vsbys may drop to 1sm with the snow at times and it could linger into the afternoon. VFR conditions for the afternoon with the exception of lingering MVFR Cigs and Vsbys from the snow over far se WI. VFR conditions then tnt-Sun AM.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 345 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Lake effect snow showers, brisk north winds, and moderate freezing spray will prevail today, mainly across the southern half of the lake. Strong high pressure of 30.8 inches will settle over the southern Great Plains today. A ridge extending north from the high will then shift across the lake tonight, with light and variable winds expected. Modest southwest winds will develop for Sunday into Sunday night as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The trough will then pass and shift the winds to northwesterly for Monday.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 3 PM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM Saturday.