textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- No wintry mix/freezing drizzle is expected in far northern parts of area later this afternoon into early evening, nor across the area later tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Mild temperatures are expected this week.

- Small chances for light snow Thursday into Thursday night.

UPDATE

Issued 600 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

No major changes to the going forecast this evening. Dry air is holding at the surface and light radar reflectivity over the far northern reaches of our CWA are not reaching the ground. Light snow/freezing drizzle is not anticipated this evening.

CMiller

SHORT TERM

Issued 1257 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

This Afternoon through Tuesday night:

Warm air advection will continue this afternoon and evening in the low levels, with a low level jet nose pointing into northern parts of the area. Middle to high clouds will continue to move through the area during this time. Forecast soundings are continuing to show a good amount of dry air around and below the 850 mb level during this time, except the NAM which looks overdone with boundary layer moisture.

Given this dry layer of air in place, not expecting much if any light snow/light rain/light freezing drizzle to reach the surface in far northern portions of the area. Kept a flurry/sprinkle mention in this area into this evening.

A cold front will push southeast through the area later tonight and exit early Tuesday morning, with a dry passage expected with the dry air in place. There should still be middle to high clouds moving through into Tuesday morning, with some lower clouds possible if enough low level moisture develops. Some uncertainty with this, as forecast soundings are mixed on the amount of low level moisture. Do not expect any wintry mix or freezing drizzle with the low clouds at this time, given the uncertainty with low level moisture.

Cold air advection behind the front on gusty northwest winds is expected Tuesday. Mild overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s are expected tonight within the warm air advection, with highs Tuesday still in the middle to upper 30s despite the cold air advection. It will feel like the 20s with the gusty winds. High pressure moving toward the region Tuesday night should bring lighter winds and cooler lows in the lower 20s.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 1257 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

High pressure will move across the region later Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing quiet weather and seasonable temperatures. A 500 mb shortwave trough should slide southeast across the region Thursday afternoon and night, with some 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis response and fairly deep moisture per area forecast soundings. The best upward vertical motion and moisture would be in the south central portions of the forecast area. For now, kept 20 to 30 percent chances for light snow going for Thursday into Thursday night. Will see how things trend over the next day or two, and if it holds together, it may bring some light snow accumulations.

Kept 20 to 30 percent chances for light rain/light snow for Saturday into Sunday, as low pressure passes by well to the south and southeast of the area. There is a fair amount of uncertainty with how this system will affect the area, as ensembles are varied with measurable QPF, so expect more changes to the forecast. Temperatures appear to remain on the mild side per ensemble trends.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 609 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR ceilings will hold through the overnight hours as dry air remains at the surface. A strong 850mb jet will support southwesterly wind shear over all of the area from 35 to 45 knots through the overnight hours. Winds will remain light and southerly overnight before a trough moves through just before dawn tomorrow. Winds will come around to northwesterly following the trough and become breezy, with gusts up to 25 knots into the afternoon hours.

CMiller

MARINE

Issued 1257 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The Small Craft Advisory for elevated waves north of Port Washington will expire at 3 PM CST this afternoon. Waves should continue to subside into tonight.

Brisk southerly winds will linger over Lake Michigan into tonight, as low pressure around 29.6 inches crosses northern Ontario. A cold front will cross Lake Michigan later tonight into early Tuesday, bringing brisk west to northwest winds Tuesday through Wednesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Tuesday for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, for gusty northwest winds.

High pressure around 30.3 inches will cross the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing lighter winds. Winds should remain light Thursday night into Saturday.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.