textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will continue through the morning commute in southeastern Wisconsin before tapering off completely.

- Another chance (10-30%) for a quick round of snow overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Minimal accumulations expected.

- Milder temps for start of next week with highs trending above normal into midweek.

UPDATE

Issued 613 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Patchy freezing drizzle has been reported along with periods of light snow across southeastern Wisconsin this morning, with radar and low clouds indicating that there is potential for this to continue on and off through approximately 8 AM CST. After drizzle dissipates and clouds rise this morning, expecting only a few flurries to remain into midday/early afternoon. As last remaining precipitation tapers off, expect northwesterly winds to increase to gust between 30 and 35 mph. A few gusts to 40 mph remain possible, especially in far southern Wisconsin.

Temperatures this morning are expected to rise as northwesterly winds are actually bringing in a wing of warmer air before a strong cold front sweeps southward through the region this afternoon. Highs will therefore be this morning/early this afternoon, and are expected to be in the mid 30s. Temperatures will fall rapidly into the 20s and even upper teens this afternoon into this evening.

MH

SHORT TERM

Issued 104 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Today and Tonight:

Snow has begun across southern Wisconsin early this morning. The mid level frontogenesis band has set up along a line from Tomahawk to Shawano to Sheboygan. This is the area where the 0.5 inch/hr rates are expected with pockets of up to 1 inch/hr rates possible. This band is relativity narrow and may shift slightly north or south over the next couple hours. A shift in the 700 mb Fgen band would spread out the area of snowfall totals around an inch. Snow will tapper off and be more scattered for areas south and west of Sheboygan.

As we head southwest toward Madison there will be potential for some freezing drizzle to mix in early this morning. The freezing drizzle can be seen up stream and is dependent on some mid level WAA. Guidance still has some discrepancies about how far north this warm nose will move in. Madison will be on the edge of this freezing light rain/drizzle potential with higher confidence has you head toward Mineral Point, Darlington and Monroe. There will also be a potential for a loss of cloud ice as we head into the 3 to 6 AM time frame based on forecast soundings which just further compounds the freezing drizzle problem for areas south and west of Madison. Snow and freezing drizzle is expected to end from north to south during the morning commute. Regardless of if you personally get snow or freezing drizzle there is a potential for impacts to the commute. For snow totals are expected to be around an inch or less and a glaze of freezing drizzle.

Late this morning into the afternoon, there will be some lingering upper level PVA which could squeak out a few isolated flurries. Any flurries that do develop will be negligible. A cold front will pass later this afternoon into this evening which will bring in some CAA. Winds will start to increase and become breezy ahead of the front. Gusts of 30 MPH will be possible during this time. As the cold front passes, there is some concern of some strong winds developing as the cold air aloft cuts through the warmer air near the surface. Should this happen we would be approaching the 40 MPH threshold for a Wind Advisory. Regardless of if its 30 or 40 MPH winds if you have loose items its would be best to bring them in or secure them.

Saturday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper teens to low 20s with another potential for snow Saturday night. This next chance for snow will be brought in by a clipper system. Guidance is still a bit split on track so kept POPs low as there is a chance that the majority of the snow tracks to our north and misses southern Wisconsin. Even based on the average among guidance central and east central Wisconsin are the most likely to see the snow. This will be a lighter more powder snow and quick hitting leading to low totals across the board.

Patterson

LONG TERM

Issued 104 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Sunday through Wednesday:

Sunday kicks off the dry conditions and warming temperatures through at least mid week. Aloft there will be a ridge building in the west and troughing to our east which puts the state on the edge of rising heights. At the sfc there will be a broad area of high pressure gradually pushing east into the the New England and Mid Atlantic states with low pressure systems to the west in the Plains. Under this set up, southeast to south winds will take root across the state and bring in rising temps and dewpoints.

Tuesday looks to be the warmest of the week as the low pressure systems and upper level troughs advance toward the Great Lakes Region. At the sfc there looks to be a warm front that will pass during the day Tuesday which will provide a good push of WAA (looks to be a dry frontal passage). Looking at the spread among models there is quiet a range of temperatures. Looking at the box and whiskers plots for Euro, CAN, and GFS ensembles shows the interquartile ranges solidly around 38 to 45 degrees which also tracks with the NBM. This is all well above normal for this time of year so a warm day for sure (a taste of spring for those looking), but examining the whiskers for the max and min show some potential for even higher temps should the WAA be strong enough. From the data as a whole the GFS is trending colder while the Euro trends warmer and CAN is in the middle (this is for the entire plot including the interquartile ranges). Looking at the maximum values does show slim chances to be in the upper 40s to near 50s. The scope of this would be very limited if it does even come to fruition with southwestern and far southern Wisconsin being the locations most likely to have the warmest temps of the day. Even if the warm front under preforms and were looking at highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Regardless if your looking for spring weather, Tuesdays your light in the tunnel.

Precipitation will make its return Tuesday night into Wednesday for southern Wisconsin. The chances for rain look to continue through Thursday as guidance shows the potential for a more active period. Despite this, POPs are around 10-35% for this entire time. This is because each run is drastically different in timing, location and strength of the Low (this is up and down the column from 500 mb to the sfc). This is impacting the duration of precipitation too. So its getting a bit washed out over these three days. I wouldn't bank on precip through this entire time, its more likely to be a single round or maybe even a couple. Precip type is likely to be mixed and will depend on timing. Tuesday night looks to favor more rain while slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday could potentially lead to a wintry mix/increased snow potential. Hard to say at this point so keep an eye on the forecast.

Patterson

AVIATION

Issued 613 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Low ceilings in the 700 to 1200 ft range are expected for the next few hours, along with patchy freezing drizzle and pockets of light snow in southeastern Wisconsin. Ceilings will improve as precipitation ends over the next few hours, although 1000-2000 ft ceilings are expected through much of the rest of the day. This afternoon, drier air is expected to finally scatter out the low clouds and return the area to VFR.

Northwesterly winds this morning will increase throughout the day, with gusts up to 30 kt possible during the afternoon to early evening hours. Winds will remain northwesterly and gradually diminish overnight, becoming light and variable into early Saturday morning under high pressure before shifting to become southeasterly Saturday afternoon as high pressure exits.

MH

MARINE

Issued 104 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Low pressure around 29.4 inches will track east across James Bay tonight and enter Quebec by Friday afternoon. As this low moves east a cold front will move across the Lake Friday afternoon. Light west winds this evening will turn to northwesterly by day break. Northwest winds will increase along and behind the cold front and gradually veer northerly by Friday evening. Gale force gusts up to 40kt are expected and a Gale Warning is in effect across the northern two thirds of the lake for these gusts. Additionally, a period of heavy freezing spray is expected from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning and have issued a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning. Northerly winds gradually weaken through the Saturday as high pressure builds across the region. Southerly winds return with milder temps as the high pressure pushes east for Sunday.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday to midnight Saturday.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366- LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876...10 AM Friday to 3 AM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 AM Saturday.