textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A gradual warming trend occurs through this week, with temperatures trending 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal norms when the warmth peaks (likely Friday).

- Periodic precipitation chances from late Monday night through the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued 525 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Stratocumulus will continue to dissipate over far ern WI into the early evening while high cloud cover will also thin. Large high pressure over the nrn Great Lakes will reach New England for Mon afternoon. A dry air mass and mostly clear skies will prevail during this time. Light sly winds and warm advection will begin on Mon, which will boost temps into the 40s away from Lake MI.

Gehring

SHORT TERM

Issued 120 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Tonight and Monday:

Dry and quiet weather expected through this period. The nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to bottom out in the teens to low 20s (warmest near Lake Michigan due to weak easterly flow). Wouldn't be surprised to see a few pockets drop a few degrees colder under these conditions, but this afternoon's sunshine has removed nearly all of our snow depth already (thus removing 1 ingredient for prime radiational cooling).

A light south to southeasterly breeze kicks in post dawn Monday morning, working with the lack of snow cover and ample morning sunshine to boost temperatures into the low to mid 40s (perhaps upper 30s by the Lake Michigan shoreline). The next mentionable chance of precip arrives after midnight Monday night, which we'll cover in the Long Term discussion.

Sheppard

LONG TERM

Issued 120 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Monday night through Sunday:

Periodic precip chances are forecast throughout this period, with only the first having any potential for snow to mix in, and the rest being rain only (with some slight thunder potential) as temperatures gradually rise to 15-20+ degrees above seasonal norms.

A developing Colorado low works with the departed polar high pressure (offshore of the northeastern CONUS) to drive a warm front northward into the middle Mississippi River Valley Monday night into Tuesday, with weaker Canadian high pressure halting it's northward advance south of our region. WAA aloft will allow for some 15-30% precip chances after midnight Monday night, with slight potential for a minimal amount of snow or mix to fall before precip changes to rain-only (likely no later than mid morning). 35-55% rain chances expected through the rest of Tuesday morning, tapering down into the afternoon. Highest precip chances further south.

The aforementioned low pressure tracks northeastward into Illinois towards mid week then slowly exits eastward, resulting in additional mid-week rain chances. A much deeper and more organized Colorado low is then expected late in the work week, likely with much stronger and truly surface-based WAA, with the warmth peaking on Friday (good potential for temps to reach or exceed the 60-degree mark in south-central WI). Though models disagree on the exact track for the system, the general average / consensus is more or less directly overhead, with the WAA phase producing widespread rainfall Friday / Friday night. CAA on the back side of this system should cause a slight decline in temperatures for Saturday, though ensemble IQRs remain noticeably above seasonal norms. Warming may then resume into Sunday (with the favored solution being low pressure in south- central Canada), likely with continued dry weather.

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 525 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Sct-bkn035 stratocumulus over ern WI will continue to dissipate into this evening. Otherwise mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are forecast tnt into Mon evening.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 120 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Modest north to northeast winds today will become light and variable later today into tonight, as high pressure around 30.6 inches moves east across the Great Lakes region. Breezy south to southeast winds will then develop on Monday, in response to the high shifting well to the east and low pressure around 29.6 inches moving east across far northern Ontario. Winds will shift to the east to northeast on Tuesday, north of a warm front developing from the central Plains into central Indiana. The east to northeast winds should linger later into the week.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.