textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Around an inch of powdery snow mainly along and north of a line from Lone Rock to Kenosha today.

- Above normal temps are possible early next week.

UPDATE

Issued 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Light to moderate snow has quickly developed sewd from south central WI into far se WI late this morning. This is conjunction with a sewd moving vorticity maximum that is approaching from the La Crosse area along with increasing 850-700 mb warm advection. 850 mb frontogenesis may be aiding in some of the heavier banding as well. Widespread light to moderate snow lasting 3-4 hours is expected mainly along and north of a line from Lone Rock to Kenosha with upwards of 1.5 inches possible. The snow will shift a bit north with time then dissipate from west to east from mid afternoon into the early evening. Skies will then gradually clear through the evening with lgt nwly winds expected.

Gehring

SHORT TERM

Issued 215 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Today and Tonight:

We ring in the start of 2026 with sub-zero wind chills with negative teens up across east-central WI through daybreak. These brisk conditions gradually improve through the late morning hours, but temps will remain on the chilly side for New Years Day with highs only topping off in the mid/upper teens to around 20F toward Lake Michigan.

Otherwise with the prevailing upper-level northwest flow, another ripple of mid-level vorticity is progged to work its way down across southern WI today. Overall models have been slow to pick up on this feature and is the weakest wave over the past couple of days. However, there does look to be enough moisture with another swath of Pacific moisture working its way into the region aligning with a bit of low-level WAA for another dusting to half an inch of snow through the day late morning into the afternoon/early evening. Impacts look to be limited given the minimal upper-level forcing competing not only with drier low- level and subsidence from the building high pressure over the region, but also given its quick moving nature. This light snow activity exits the area to the southeast by 00z tonight.

Tonight will be drier with light winds and mostly clear conditions as high pressure continues to build across the Upper Midwest. Looking at single digit to low teens lows overnight.Wagner

LONG TERM

Issued 215 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

High pressure continues to build down from the Dakotas and into the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. Overall pattern favors dry, but additional ripples aloft may bring additional snow chances at times through the weekend. Latest 00z models show hints of this on Saturday and potentially again on Sunday.

Otherwise influence for high pressure and cooler airmass prevails into the end of the weekend before an upper-level ridge axis slides east into the region. WPC cluster analysis favors the 500mb ridge axis settling over the Midwest through the first half of next week. Given the agreement in the long range models and prevailing nature of this pattern for a few days, expect temps to trend above normal temps. Then this milder pattern hints at breaking down and accompanied by additional precip chances through the midweek.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 Widespread light snow along and north of a line from KLNR to KENW today. Vsbys of 3/4SM-2SM with the snow but brief periods of 1/4-1/2SM will also occur. MVFR Cigs will also occur with the snow with MVFR Cigs decreasing from late afternoon into the evening when the snow ends. VFR conditions then expected late this evening through Friday.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Modest to brisk west to northwest winds will continue over Lake MI today and Friday, then lighter winds take hold for the weekend. This will occur as deep low pressure continues to gradually weaken over Hudson Bay, while a ridge of high pressure around 30.1 inches extends from Minnesota into the Ohio Valley. Moderate freezing spray will continue over eastern portions of the lake into Friday morning. Expect a southerly wind shift into the start of next week as the high pressure slides east of the Great Lakes.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.