textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain is delayed today but still looking likely from Madison to Milwaukee and south to the IL border for mid afternoon and evening. Around one half inch of rain is expected toward the IL border.

- At least Moderate Swim Risk is expected for the Lake Michigan beaches Monday with the possibility for High Swim Risk to develop. Keep out of the water and away from dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls!

- Chances for thunderstorms Tue nt through Wed nt.

- Below normal temps continue.

SHORT TERM

Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Delayed onset of rain today but still expecting 60-90 percent chances along and south of a line from Madison to Milwaukee for mid to late afternoon and into the evening. The shield of rain is finally moving into far srn WI. A couple vorticity maximums across nrn IA will move across far srn WI late this afternoon and evening. These features and associated PVA, along with mid level warm advection and frontogenesis reaching the WI and IL border, may be enough for measurable light rain as far north as Madison and Milwaukee. Moderate rainfall rates are still expected at times near the IL border with rainfall totals around one half inch there. Showers will then linger over far se WI in the early morning hours with skies becoming partly cloudy afterward. Nely sfc winds and cold advection will prevail through the morning. Scattered cumulus to brief broken cumulus can then be expected for Mon afternoon well inland from Lake MI. High temps will range from the 60s at the Lake MI shoreline with middle 70s well inland. A north to south sfc ridge will then slowly move across srn WI Mon nt-Tue. High temps on Tue will be slightly higher for Tue.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Tuesday night through Sunday:

A slow moving shortwave trough and weak sfc low will then track from srn Canada across the nrn Great Lakes for Wed-Thu. Rain chances of 50-80 percent will begin Tue nt and last into Wed. Thunderstorms will be possible during this time. Lingering precipitation is then possible Thu followed by high pressure for Thu nt-Fri. Upper ridging will then take hold over the region for the weekend as cyclogenesis ensues over the Canadian Prairies. A dry esely flow will limit rain chances with possibly some increase in moisture by Sunday. Slightly below normal temps for the middle of the week may eventually become above normal by Sunday.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Widespread rainfall will move from IL into srn WI through the afternoon and continue into the evening mainly along and south of a line from Madison to Milwaukee. Areas of MVFR Cigs and Vsbys can be expected with the rain over far srn WI but extending into the MKE metro area during the evening. The low Cigs and lingering rain showers will continue into early Tue AM from MKE south to ENW. Partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions will then return for the daylight hours of Tue.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Low pressure around 29.7 inches will track eastward from northeast Missouri into western Ohio by Monday morning. This will bring light easterly winds this afternoon becoming breezy northeast to north winds over the southern portion of the lake tonight and Monday. Lighter northerly winds return late Monday evening into Tuesday as high pressure around 30.1 inches builds into the region. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed on Monday from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor IL, but there is still some uncertainty with the magnitude of nly winds and resultant wave heights.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.