textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected this week.

- Small chances for light snow Thursday into Thursday evening.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Overnight through Tuesday Night:

The low level jet pushing into central WI and weak vorticity advection are enough for producing ice crystals aloft over the north half of WI and portions of southern WI. The low layers (below 10,000 ft) of the atmosphere over southern WI are very dry. Thus, we are seeing light returns on mosaic radar but nothing is reaching the ground, indicating virga. This forcing will exit the area just before daybreak.

Then a cold front will sweep across southern WI in the morning and bring gusty northwest winds and low clouds. Expect brisk gusts up to 30 mph during the afternoon, and clouds to break apart as the day goes on. Temperatures are above freezing toward the IL border and between 28 and 30 toward central WI (late this evening) where they had brief clearing in the evening. The temps will not make a lot of upward progress during the day Tuesday due to the cold air advection, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 30s, still above normal.

Winds and clouds will gradually diminish through Wednesday as the low pressure system exits the region and high pressure moves overhead. Lows Tue nt will be in the lower 20s and highs Wed will rebound into the lower 30s northeast to upper 30s southwest.

Cronce

LONG TERM

Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Wednesday Night through Monday:

A mid level shortwave trough dropping through southern MN and the borders of IA, WI and IL late Wed nt into Thu morning is coincident with the nose of a low level jet and some subtle lift from the entrance region of a weakening upper level jet. This forcing may be enough for light precip along a fairly narrow axis, although the forcing (and chance for precip) weakens quickly Thu morning as it gets further into northern IL and southeast WI. The precip type looks like light, fluffy snow with the forcing within at least part of the dendritic growth zone. Depending on the speed of the system this snow would occur early Thu morning to early Thu afternoon or Thu afternoon to early evening.

The focus for precip will shift southward for the weekend as the baroclinic zone sets up there and high pressure sets up over the Great Lakes. This will leave southern WI dry Fri through Sun with temperatures running above normal. There are small chances for precip over srn WI Sat through Sun, but the trend in the models is for dry weather. There is growing agreement in a stronger low pressure system to track across the southern States and keep the precip chances well south of WI.

A weak shortwave from the northern wave may dip down across WI Sun afternoon/night so cannot rule out the need to add precip chances in later forecasts. Beyond Monday, an amplified upper trough is expected to push onshore from the Pacific. This will bring the potential for a stronger system to affect the Upper Midwest by late next week.

Cronce

AVIATION

Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A strong 850mb jet will support southwesterly wind shear over all of the area from 35 to 40 knots through the overnight hours. A mix of mid and high clouds will persist over southern WI through the night. Expect lighter southerly winds at the surface until early morning, and then a lull with a wind shift to the west around daybreak. Winds will become northwesterly following a cold frontal passage by mid morning. Gusts up to 30 knots are expected into the late afternoon hours. A period of MVFR ceilings is looking more likely along and for a few hours behind the cold front from mid morning through mid afternoon, with clouds becoming more scattered later in the day.

Cronce

MARINE

Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Brisk southerly winds will continue over Lake Michigan tonight as low pressure tracks across northern Ontario. A cold front will cross Lake Michigan early Tuesday, bringing brisk west to northwest winds through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Tuesday for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan due to gusty northwest winds.

High pressure will set up over the Great Lakes Wednesday night through Saturday. Winds will be on the lighter side and mainly out of the southwest.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.