textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is expected tonight, with accumulations of a trace to half an inch most places and up to an inch towards Fond du Lac and Sheboygan. Light freezing drizzle may develop after snow ends, continuing through the Tuesday morning commute before tapering off.

- A wintry mix is expected to develop Tuesday evening, with slick spots on area roads possible due to continued cold pavement temperatures. Wintry mix will transition to snow by Wednesday, with uncertainty remaining in total snowfall amounts.

- Additional rounds of snowfall are then possible through the end of the work week, but confidence in exact time frames is much lower.

- Below normal temperatures continue through next weekend, with wind chills as cold as -15 to -25 degrees by the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued 957 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Temperatures will rise throughout today as winds kick to become southerly, with highs in the low 20s expected. A few flurries are currently ongoing across the area, with a layer of dry air near the surface preventing the majority of snow seen on radar from reaching the ground. Flurries will taper off into this afternoon, with the next chances for snow still expected overnight. Current forecast for snowfall overnight is on track. However, model soundings are indicating continued lift after the snow moves through while dry air works its way into the dendritic growth zone and aloft. This indicates strong potential for a period of freezing drizzle from the late overnight hours tonight into the Tuesday morning commute before tapering off. Only trace ice accretions are expected, but still may experience slick conditions on area roads, especially untreated or elevated ones.

MH

SHORT TERM

Issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Today and Tonight:

Light lake effect snow brushing lakeshore areas will lift northward and gradually weaken towards daybreak, ending by mid- morning. Dry weather is then expected the rest of the day as high pressure overhead this morning heads eastward. Warm air advection along with a weak shortwave will result in plenty of clouds through the day, but moisture around 850 mb will be limited. This should keep the bulk of any precip aloft from reaching the ground. Wouldn't be surprised by a few flurries though. Well below normal temps will persist today, as the airmass aloft won't have warmed much by the end of the day and clouds will also help to keep it chilly.

A second shortwave will move through tonight, bringing a better chance for light snow to southern Wisconsin. Model soundings show eventual saturation in the lower levels by early tonight, with stronger warm air advection and frontogenesis expected than with the first wave. The best chance for some light accumulations will be across roughly the northeast half of the forecast area towards the better lift. A blend of 00Z models gives anywhere from a trace southwest of Madison to upwards of an inch towards Fond du Lac and Sheboygan. Temps are expected to gradually warm overnight given the strong warm air advection and breezy south to southwest winds.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tuesday through Monday:

Dry weather will briefly return to the area Tuesday morning between systems, before an even stronger low approaches from the northwest in the afternoon, moving through overnight into early Wednesday. Deterministic and ensemble model mean surface low tracks continue to show the low moving through the northern forecast area or just to the north. There is actually fairly good agreement at the moment of low low track north to south among ensemble members, with more of a spread west to east due to timing differences. A consensus of the 00Z model tracks would suggest snow most places initially Tuesday evening, transitioning to rain central and southern portions of the forecast area by midnight, and possibly remaining mainly snow in the north. With this current expected track of the low, any small variations north to the south will result in a change of precip types and resultant potential snow accumulations. This system is expected to bring at least a few inches of snow north of the low, so future model runs and any variations in the track are worth keeping an eye on.

Another concern with the Tuesday night precipitation will be how quickly pavement temps will warm after this cold stretch. Rain falling on bare pavement or more even snow covered pavement (given the initial snow possibility) could make for slick roads for a time if road temps are slow to respond to the warming surface temps.

Lingering precip behind the low Wednesday morning should transition to all snow as the colder air moves in behind the low, with latest model showing the precip will exit by the afternoon.

Colder temperatures will push into the region Wednesday night through the end of the week, as multiple shortwaves move through, possibly also bringing a little light snow at times. By Saturday, high temperatures may not get out of the single digits most places. Breezy westerly winds Friday night into Saturday may result in wind chills as low as -25. Temps will then slowly recover early next week, but will remain well below normal.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 957 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Generally VFR conditions expected through this morning, with lowering ceilings into MVFR this afternoon and evening as a weak snow and freezing drizzle system moves in. IFR conditions will dominate by late tonight and continue into Tuesday morning as the steadiest precipitation falls. Ceilings will improve through the morning into the afternoon Tuesday, with a brief return to VFR Tuesday afternoon before the next system works its way in from the west.

Winds will become southerly this afternoon, shifting to southwesterly overnight and becoming gusty. Plenty of veering in the lowest 2000 ft will lead to wind shear concerns through the overnight hours as well. Winds shift to westerly briefly Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon before returning to westerly ahead of the next system.

MH

MARINE

Issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Lighter winds this morning will pick up out of the south to southwest this afternoon and continue to increase this evening, as high pressure of 30.4 inches overhead this morning heads eastward. Gale force gusts are expected later this evening through tonight across the north half of the lake.

Low pressure of 29.2 inches will approach from the northern Plains Tuesday, bringing increased southerly winds across the south half of the lake by Tuesday night as the low moves through. Winds will all shift to northwesterly as the low exits into Wednesday, with gales possible in the southern half throughout this time frame. Winds gradually diminish Wednesday night, remaining west to northwest through the end of the week.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868...10 PM Monday to 6 AM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM Monday to noon Tuesday.