textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight minimum wind chills in the negative teens are expected tonight and Thursday night. Slightly warmer wind chills are possible Friday night.

- Lake effect showers develop just offshore in Lake Michigan early Friday morning, and are likely to impact Lakeshore Counties Friday morning into Friday afternoon (40 to 60 percent chances). Showers are expected to move back offshore Friday night, and wobble back inland again Saturday morning to Saturday afternoon. Confidence is high in snow spreading inland, but low in duration. Around an inch is expected, with a medium (40 to 70 percent chance) potential for 2 inches or more in far southeastern Wisconsin.

- Next chances for snowfall (20 to 40 percent) Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across all of southern Wisconsin.

UPDATE

Issued 942 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Temperatures are slower to fall than anticipated, but once the winds die down our temperatures should drop to the forecast lows in the negative single digits. There is an area of lower clouds with flurries over Green Bay that we are watching. These are caused by lake effect over Lake Superior but are enhanced by a shortwave trough dropping down. There is chance that those clouds/flurries could make it down to Sheboygan, but there is a lot of dry air to overcome so we will continue to keep an eye on it for necessary forecast updates.

Cronce

SHORT TERM

Issued 341 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

Temperatures will begin a gradual decline this evening, with overnight lows in the single digits below zero expected. Northwesterly winds will weaken, but remain steady overnight, leading to wind chills in the negative teens. A few isolated spots may get as low as negative 20 degree wind chills.

Winds remain lighter into Thursday, with highs in the positive teens expected. Wind chills recover into the single digits above zero in most areas due to the lower wind speeds.

Increasing cloud cover is expected Thursday afternoon through Thursday night from overrunning moisture from Lake Superior. Still expecting low temperatures in the negative single digits inland, but lows in the single digits above zero near Lake Michigan. A zone of convergence over Lake Michigan is still expected to develop overnight as high pressure strengthens to the northwest and winds weaken over Michigan, leading to offshore flow and potential for meso-low development within a parent lake effect band. Snow showers may begin to encroach into lakeshore counties as early as late Thursday night as this convergence zone evolves.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 341 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

Higher confidence in lake effect showers moving inland develops early Friday morning through Friday afternoon as low pressure develops in the Lower Mississippi Valley and adds to the convergence/increases northeasterly flow at 850 mb. This will allow for the convergence band over Lake Michigan to wobble its way eastward Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Confidence is high in snow impacting lakeshore counties, but duration and therefore potential snowfall varies widely model to model. As high pressure slides southward into the central and southern Plains Friday evening, expect the band to wobble back offshore. The low pressure to the south exits into the Atlantic and deepens Saturday morning, leading to the 850 mb wind field to steadily shift northeasterly and therefore bring the convergent band back inland Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. With both portions of synoptic forcing (high pressure in the southern Plains and low pressure in the Atlantic) well to the south, expecting this round of potential snowfall to primarily focus toward far southeastern Wisconsin, but may still produce snow as far north as Sheboygan. Again, duration of time onshore will dictate how much snowfall falls in any one area. Confidence is high in at least 1 inch across lakeshore counties over the Friday and Saturday timeframe, with medium confidence (40 to 70 percent chances) for 2 inches or more in far southeastern Wisconsin. Low pressure lifts into the northeast as it intensifies, shifting winds back to northwesterly and therefore pushing the band back offshore by Saturday evening.

Next chances for snowfall develop Sunday afternoon through Sunday night as a clipper system rides along the northern edge of the high over the southern Plains. This clipper will allow southern Wisconsin to get back into the warm sector with highs in the 20s Saturday and Sunday. Measurable snowfall is possible with this system.

A brief return to high pressure with light winds and increasing temperatures early next week, with highs nearing 30 degrees Monday through Wednesday. An additional clipper system may develop Wednesday as high pressure exits, bringing our next chances for snowfall.

MH

AVIATION

Issued 942 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

There is an area of lower clouds with ceilings around 4500 ft with flurries over Green Bay that could make it down to Sheboygan, but there is a lot of dry air to overcome. Right now, maintained FEW/SCT040 in the TAFs but kept out the mention of flurries.

Cronce

MARINE

Issued 341 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Modest to brisk west-northwest winds will prevail over Lake Michigan at least into Thursday as weak low pressure remains over the eastern Great Lakes and high pressure extends from the northern Great Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley. High pressure will strengthen into Friday as weak low pressure progresses through the Middle Mississippi Valley, turning winds briefly northerly to even northeasterly. During this time, a snow band will develop in central portions of the lake, with westerly winds to the west and northeasterly winds to the east. Winds shift back to north- northwesterly and increase Friday night as low pressure deepens in the Atlantic. Moderate to heavy freezing spray will likely develop once again. A second brief period of northeast winds is possible Saturday morning as high pressure slides southward into the U.S. Southeast and low pressure in the Atlantic deepens. Winds become light and variable Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure finally dominates the pattern.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.