textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and cooler conditions the rest of today and Monday.

- Next chances for thunderstorms develop Tuesday and Wednesday. Too early to tell intensity, but monitoring for potential stronger storms. Rain chances of 70-90 percent both days with heavy rain possible Wed and Wed night.

- Next chances for thunderstorms develop Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

No precipitation is expected throughout the rest of today into tonight. Northwesterly winds will continue to gust between 25 and 30 mph through the afternoon, diminishing quickly this evening. Light winds expected overnight as high pressure builds in briefly, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Dry conditions continue through Monday, with some high clouds building in Monday afternoon and some scattered diurnal cumulus as well. Expecting highs in the mid-70s. Dry conditions continue through the overnight, with winds shifting to southwesterly as a low pressure system develops to the northwest. Expect overnight lows in the mid-50s.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

Rapidly developing low pressure will swing through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Parent trough looks to remain neutral to positive, but increasing shear and some moderate instability in the warm sector will lead to at least thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin, and a low potential for a few stronger storms as well. Warm frontogenesis looks to move through southern Wisconsin in the morning hours Tuesday, so afternoon severe potential will be highly dependent on whether any clearing can develop in the warm sector before the mid-afternoon cold front sweeps through. Precipitation tapers off overnight.

Dynamic pattern continues on Wednesday as a shortwave propagates southward through the northern Great Plains and kicks off a surface low. As the low deepens and interacts with the leftover cold front from the previous system, this trough is expected to kick negative. However, the timing and placement of this negative tilt remains less certain, with the Euro indicating a negative tilt in Wisconsin, but the GFS and Canadian not developing the negative tilt until Michigan or southern Ontario. Therefore, cannot rule out severe storms Wednesday. Keep an eye on the forecast as the event nears.

After the shortwave exits Wednesday night, it is expected to stall and pivot toward the north, bringing additional rounds of rainfall to southern Wisconsin through the overnight hours. A reinforcing cold front Thursday afternoon will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, but not expecting stronger storms at this time. Highs in the mid-70s are expected on Thursday.

A brief wave of high pressure builds across the region Thursday night into Friday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Friday as we move through a convergence zone on the northern side of the low, but chances are not high (15-25%). Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Precipitation chances (20-50%) return Saturday into Sunday as high pressure settles across the Southeast U.S. and low pressure developing in the central High Plains begins to bring warm frontogenesis across the Upper Midwest.

MH

AVIATION

Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwesterly winds gusting at 20-25 kt and cumulus between 3500 and 5000 ft expected through the rest of the afternoon, with winds diminishing and skies clearing this evening into tonight as high pressure builds in. VFR conditions continue throughout Monday, with westerly winds becoming steady around 12 kt into the afternoon hours.

MH

MARINE

Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest winds will gradually diminish this evening, becoming light and variable overnight under a brief wave of high pressure around 30.0 inches. Winds will shift to southwesterly Monday as high pressure moves south into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Low pressure is expected to deepen to 29.5 inches over Wisconsin on Tuesday, bringing thunderstorms stronger southwesterly winds, and a wind shift to northwesterly Tuesday through Tuesday night. Wednesday, additional low pressure develops in the central Plains, bringing southeasterly winds to the Lake. A few gales are possible in the southern third of the open waters as low pressure moves over the northern half of the Lake on Wednesday night. As low pressure exits into Thursday morning, expect winds to become northwesterly and remain gusty across all open waters into Thursday afternoon before gradually diminishing. Lighter northwest winds are then expected through Friday.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.