textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Special Weather Statement is in effect today for elevated fire weather concerns.

- High temperatures remaining 10 to 20-plus degrees above normal through Thursday

- Gusty winds from 35 to 45 mph are expected late this morning and through the afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 9AM to 6PM for Lafayette, Iowa, and Green Counties.

- More precipitation expected Thursday afternoon into Friday, with rain gradually mixing with and switching over to light snow

- Temperatures trending back toward normal by the weekend

UPDATE

Issued 604 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Any remaining rain/fog/mist will quickly clear over the next hour as dry air punches into the region as it wraps around the occluding low pressure system to our northwest. Clear skies will enhance daytime mixing and warm, windy conditions are expected to result. Expect highs in the upper 50s to low 60s today amid southwest wind gusts between 35 to 45 mph. 45 mph winds will be more likely over southwest Wisconsin, where a Wind Advisory has been issued from 9am to 6pm.

An SPS has also been issued for elevated fire weather conditions. See the Fire Weather section for more details.

CMiller

SHORT TERM

Issued 1215 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Tonight through Wednesday night:

A strong low pressure system continues to push east toward southern WI tonight as a 500mb trough swings through in conjunction with the low and the warm front that will lift north of the area. The combination of forcing and and moisture along and ahead of the warm front suggests plenty of rain with the system generally. However, the moisture looks very likely to primarily stay north of the area with southern WI more so looking at the potential a few storms given some instability but overall most of the precip activity in southern WI may be more so convective in nature and likely only for a fairly short period over the next few hours tonight. The only area that may see more persistent rainfall tonight is the northeastern part of the CWA in east central WI, where the front may stall a bit and moisture will remain abundant. In any case most models have rain and storms pushing out by around 12z with skies expected to quickly clear into the morning.

The rest of the period looks quiet precip wise as we get dry slotted by the surface low with no moisture to be found in the column for the vast majority of this period. Into the day, however, we will become increasingly unstable as we warm up into the upper 50s to possibly low to mid 60s for some of the southern WI. This will allow us to mix fairly high and likely mix down some gusty winds aloft as the surface low pushes closer. While wind advisory conditions are not expected broadly, southwest WI could see a short period in the afternoon where gusts may be upwards of 50 mph. However, this is uncertain and would at most last just a few hours. Into Wednesday night we will see winds gradually decrease as we cut off our mixing and we may start to see some moisture impinging on the CWA from the north and south that may increase cloud coverage aloft.

*see fire weather discussion as elevated fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 1215 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

Precipitation chances are expected to increase Thursday as a secondary low pressure system swings in from the Central Plains. A now closed low system will pivot northward across the northern Great lakes which will allow for a secondary shortwave to slide in which may also develop into another closed low system itself, though models remain uncertain on that. That uncertainty will certainly impact what we could expect from this system generally but a surface low is generally expected to push through southern WI Thursday through Friday, which is expected to bring some precip to the region.

This precip looks likely to be rain at first as the warm front swings through. Then models generally point to at least parts of the region getting dry slotted again with areas north and west perhaps seeing some snow on the back edge of the system. As the low continues to track north the back edge and TROWAL region of this system will likely bring some snow but may only impact western parts of the area as eastern areas may remain within the dry slot.

Lots of uncertainty with this system remains as the previous system will play a role and that this is a sensitive system. Small changes in the track of this system could completely change where we expect the dry slot to be and how much snow to be expected as the northwestern side of the low looks likely to bring some decent snowfall somewhere given the increased likelihood for some Fgen banding. The current track would require quite a shift to bring significant snow to our CWA but the western parts of the CWA are well within the margin for error of this system.

The departing system Friday will usher in some more normal conditions with high falling back into the 30s for the weekend and early next week as strong high pressure swings through. Cannot rule out a snow shower with some moisture in the DGZ at times but with insignificant moisture flurries would be most probable.

Toward the middle of next week however things will become far more uncertain with perhaps a period of zonal flow which could increase activity with any embedded shortwaves.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 610 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Any remaining IFR and MVFR conditions this morning are expected to quickly improve to VFR as dry air punches into the region around an occluding low to our northwest. While skycon and vis should improve, southwest winds are expected to increase and remain elevated as vigorous daytime mixing taps into a strong jet aloft. Gusts from 25 to 35 knots will be common from the late morning through the afternoon as the jet remains aloft. Areas in far southwest Wisconsin may see brief gusts to 39 knots and a Wind Advisory has been issued there.

Sfc winds should then ease tonight as the boundary layer decouples. However, there may be a brief period of westerly LLWS to 45 knots in the late evening as the sfc winds weaken and the jet hangs on at 2000 feet.

CMiller

FIRE WEATHER

Issued 604 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Clearing skies today will lead to strong mixing. The combination of mixing and high temperatures will result in relative humidity values between 15-25%. Additionally, robust mixing will enable strong winds to mix down to the surface, with gusts between 35 to 45 mph expected. While FFMC is still below critical (~85 at this time) owing recent snow melt and rain, atmospheric conditions will support elevated fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather SPS has been issued for the entire CWA, except Fond du Lac and Sheboygan Counties where RH values are expected to remain above 30%.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ062-WIZ067-WIZ068...9 AM Wednesday to 6 PM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868 until 4 PM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 PM Wednesday.