textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms (30 to 50 percent chances) remains for Monday afternoon and evening, as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty winds could occur with stronger storms.

- Warmer and breezy Sunday and Monday, then cooler the rest of next week.

- Frost may occur toward the middle to later portions of next week.

UPDATE

Issued 435 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Weak shortwave swinging through today with a fairly dry low level but enough WAA and moisture at 700mb that we should manage some showers reaching the surface though not everyone should expect showers based on current CAMs. Most likely areas to see a period of showers is across far southern WI. Things will clear out into the afternoon becoming quiet the rest of the day.

Kuroski

SHORT TERM

Issued 1257 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Overnight through Monday night:

Scattered to broken mid-level clouds should continue to move southeast through the region overnight into Sunday. There is some warm air advection expected overnight into Sunday, along with a passing 500 mb vorticity maximum overnight into Sunday morning.

These features should provide some upward vertical motion for 20 to 30 percent chances for showers. These showers will need to overcome fairly dry air in the low levels overnight, before trying to moisten up for a time Sunday morning. It is possible that the showers end up gradually weakening to sprinkles or just having virga as they shift southeast through the area overnight into Sunday morning.

There may be a broken line of showers or perhaps a thunderstorm later Sunday afternoon, as an initial weak wind shift boundary pushes through the area. There is skinny mean layer CAPE a few hundred J/kg that tries to develop along and ahead of this wind shift boundary with some capping. Kept 20 percent chances for showers in the northern areas this afternoon to account for this potential.

Gusty southwest winds are expected Sunday morning into the afternoon, shifting west. Highs should rise into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees, including areas near Lake Michigan. The clouds may limit highs somewhat.

Lighter winds and dry conditions tonight will give way to another round of gusty southwest winds on Monday. There should be highs into the lower to middle 70s with these winds and some sunshine, including areas near the lake.

Models continue to bring a cold front southeast through the area Monday afternoon and evening, bringing chances (30 to 50 percent) for showers and thunderstorms. Forecast soundings are showing differing amounts of mean layer CAPE, though there should be at least 500 J/kg with dew points in the middle to upper 40s. Deep layer bulk shear of 35 to 40 knots with enough mean layer CAPE may support some gusty winds with any stronger storms, so will continue to watch this potential in coming forecasts.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 1257 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

There should be enough of a push of cold air advection behind the cold front later Monday night into Tuesday with northwest winds to bring drier air into the area. The forecast still has some 20 to 30 percent chances for showers lingering during this time, but think these may drop lower or out of the forecast if the drier look of the models continues.

A general elongated and broad 500 mb trough should develop over the region by the middle portions of next week and linger into Friday and Saturday. This pattern would generally support cool temperatures each day, with a few showers possible at times. Ensembles suggest the better chances for this may be Thursday, as a 500 mb shortwave trough rotates through the area.

Lows may drop into the middle 30s away from the lake Tuesday night, Wednesday night and Thursday night, which may allow for frost to develop once again. Thus, frost/freeze headlines may eventually be needed for the area each night.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 440 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Mid level CIGS expected this morning with these showers pushing through. Light rain is not expected to bring and VSBY concerns though periods of 5SM will be possible. Early this morning will feature a period of LLWS but will be brief. Clouds will clear out into the afternoon with VFR conditions expected. Quiet tonight with the next best chance for aviation impacts Monday afternoon and evening associated with the potential for storms. Limited impacts expected regardless at this time.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 1257 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

South to southwest winds will increase into Sunday, as low pressure around 29.7 inches approaches the lake. A few gusts may approach gale force over the southern portions of the lake in the afternoon. The low pressure system will drag a cold front southeast over the region Sunday into Sunday evening. Winds will become westerly for a brief period behind the front Sunday night, before returning to southwesterly and becoming breezy again on Monday. A few gale force gusts may occur over northern portions of the lake on Monday.

Another stronger low around 29.2 inches and a cold front is expected to move across the region later Monday into Monday night. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms as the front moves across the region. Winds will shift to the northwest and north behind the front later Monday night into Tuesday and weaken. High pressure around 30.1 inches building into the northern Plains for the middle to later portions of next week should bring lighter winds.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Sunday.