textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A period of light snow is expected later tonight into Wednesday morning, as a cold front moves through the area. This may bring slippery roads for the Wednesday morning commute.

- The cold front will bring colder temperatures and wind chills Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night.

- Continued below average temperatures into the weekend.

- Relatively active pattern this weekend into next week, but with low confidence on the details.

SHORT TERM

Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Low stratus remains quite thin across the area. The scattered out areas near Lake Michigan may linger into early this evening, before the low clouds move back in. Low clouds may shift out of western parts of the area as well, with middle to high clouds moving in for a time this evening before more low clouds move in later tonight into Wednesday morning.

Modest warm air advection tonight into Wednesday morning should keep temperatures fairly steady, before a cold front moves southeast through the area Wednesday morning. The front should move southeast of the area by midday. The front will bring a period of light snow to the area late tonight into Wednesday morning, with some modest low level frontogenesis response and the modest warm air advection.

The moisture profiles on area forecast soundings are saturated for a three to five hour window, generally speaking, later tonight into Wednesday morning. There may be up to one half inch of snowfall during this period, which may bring slippery driving conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. Amounts may be a little higher if the upward vertical motion gets stronger, but have not seen any indications of this yet.

Winds will then shift northwest Wednesday afternoon and night, with strong cold air advection bringing colder temperatures and wind chills into the area. Temperatures in the middle to upper 20s will fall in the afternoon and through Wednesday night, with lows in the single digits below zero over most of the area by 12Z Thursday. These lows may end up colder than forecast, if winds decouple and skies clear out.

Wind chills of 14 below to 19 below zero are expected as well later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and again Thursday night into Friday morning. At this time, not expecting wind chills to drop below 20 below zero, but could if lows Wednesday night get lower than expected.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

Cold temperatures linger Thursday into Thursday night, with highs only in the 10 to 15 degree Fahrenheit range Thursday. Warm air advection develops with increasing southwest winds Thursday night, with single digit temperatures slowly rising but the cold wind chills lingering.

General west northwest flow at 500 mb should linger across the region Friday into the early portions of next week, with various shortwave troughs shifting through the area at times. This will lead to periodic chances for light snow to occur. The better chances may be later in the weekend and again early next week, though the details and timing remain fairly uncertain per ensembles. Temperatures may gradually moderate closer to seasonal normal values toward the middle of next week.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low stratus in the 500 to 1000 foot AGL range is quite thin across the area, and the back edge may shift east into the area this evening. If they do, they will be replaced by middle to high clouds for a time this evening, before more low stratus moves back into the area overnight into Wednesday morning. The breaks for the terminals near Lake Michigan may linger until early evening, before the low stratus moves back into the area.

Southwest winds will linger tonight into Wednesday morning, before a cold front moves southeast through the area. The front should move southeast of the area by midday, with winds shifting northwest behind it and becoming gusty in the afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night.

The front will bring a period of light snow to the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. There may be up to one half inch of snowfall during this period, with rates under one tenth of an inch per hour. This may still bring slippery conditions to runways. Amounts may be a little higher if the front becomes stronger.

Ceilings should be in the 500 to 1000 foot AGL range generally later tonight into Wednesday morning, then 1000 to 1500 feet AGL in the afternoon. Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 4 miles at times with the light snow.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A strong cold front will move southeast across Lake Michigan Wednesday. Gusty southwest winds are expected ahead of this front tonight into early Wednesday morning, shifting to gusty northwest winds behind it Wednesday afternoon and night. Winds will remain just below gales for most the lake, though a brief period of low end gales is possible Wednesday night over the far northern part of the lake. Very cold air with this system will result in periods of freezing spray Wednesday night into Friday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect starting at 9 PM CST this evening until 6 AM CST Thursday, for gusty southwest winds this evening into Wednesday morning becoming northwest Wednesday afternoon and night. Waves of 3 to 5 feet are expected toward the open waters.

Lighter winds are expected Thursday, with the influence of strong high pressure around 30.4 inches over Illinois and Indiana. Another period of elevated southwest winds will occur Thursday night into Friday, with some gale force gusts possible over the northern portions of the lake.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 PM Tuesday to 6 AM Thursday.