textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected throughout this week.

- Small chances (15 to 30 percent) for light snow Thursday into Thursday evening.

- Chances for rain and snow Saturday night into Sunday (15 to 30 percent).

UPDATE

Issued 619 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A few areas of patchy fog have developed in low-lying areas, but is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise. Cloud cover is expected to increase through the morning as a cold front moves through the area. Temperatures will also remain near current levels through much of the morning as sunlight competes with CAA and quite a bit of mixing with winds around 30 mph. During the afternoon hours, southwestern to south-central Wisconsin may see breaks in the clouds, allowing for temperatures to rise into the upper 30s in those areas.

MH

SHORT TERM

Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Overnight through Tuesday Night:

The low level jet pushing into central WI and weak vorticity advection are enough for producing ice crystals aloft over the north half of WI and portions of southern WI. The low layers (below 10,000 ft) of the atmosphere over southern WI are very dry. Thus, we are seeing light returns on mosaic radar but nothing is reaching the ground, indicating virga. This forcing will exit the area just before daybreak.

Then a cold front will sweep across southern WI in the morning and bring gusty northwest winds and low clouds. Expect brisk gusts up to 30 mph during the afternoon, and clouds to break apart as the day goes on. Temperatures are above freezing toward the IL border and between 28 and 30 toward central WI (late this evening) where they had brief clearing in the evening. The temps will not make a lot of upward progress during the day Tuesday due to the cold air advection, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 30s, still above normal.

Winds and clouds will gradually diminish through Wednesday as the low pressure system exits the region and high pressure moves overhead. Lows Tue nt will be in the lower 20s and highs Wed will rebound into the lower 30s northeast to upper 30s southwest.

Cronce

LONG TERM

Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Wednesday Night through Monday:

A mid level shortwave trough dropping through southern MN and the borders of IA, WI and IL late Wed nt into Thu morning is coincident with the nose of a low level jet and some subtle lift from the entrance region of a weakening upper level jet. This forcing may be enough for light precip along a fairly narrow axis, although the forcing (and chance for precip) weakens quickly Thu morning as it gets further into northern IL and southeast WI. The precip type looks like light, fluffy snow with the forcing within at least part of the dendritic growth zone. Depending on the speed of the system this snow would occur early Thu morning to early Thu afternoon or Thu afternoon to early evening.

The focus for precip will shift southward for the weekend as the baroclinic zone sets up there and high pressure sets up over the Great Lakes. This will leave southern WI dry Fri through Sun with temperatures running above normal. There are small chances for precip over srn WI Sat through Sun, but the trend in the models is for dry weather. There is growing agreement in a stronger low pressure system to track across the southern States and keep the precip chances well south of WI.

A weak shortwave from the northern wave may dip down across WI Sun afternoon/night so cannot rule out the need to add precip chances in later forecasts. Beyond Monday, an amplified upper trough is expected to push onshore from the Pacific. This will bring the potential for a stronger system to affect the Upper Midwest by late next week.

Cronce

AVIATION

Issued 619 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions in most areas, with patchy fog lowering visibilities to MVFR in low lying areas. A deck of MVFR stratus will move into the region from west to east mid-morning, lingering through much of the day. Expecting this deck to scatter out in most areas during the afternoon, then southeastern Wisconsin may see a return to MVFR ceilings into the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected going into Wednesday as high pressure builds overhead.

Northwesterly winds will increase throughout this morning, with gusts to 25 kt expected this afternoon into early this evening. Gusts will diminish into late tonight, but winds will remain elevated around 12 kt through Wednesday morning.

MH

MARINE

Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Brisk southerly winds will continue over Lake Michigan tonight as low pressure tracks across northern Ontario. A cold front will cross Lake Michigan early Tuesday, bringing brisk west to northwest winds through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Tuesday for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan due to gusty northwest winds.

High pressure will set up over the Great Lakes Wednesday night through Saturday. Winds will be on the lighter side and mainly out of the southwest.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Wednesday.