textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures are expected today across most of the area, as gusty southwest winds develop. Highs may rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s over most of the area.

- Some chances (around 10-20 percent) for light rain to occur later Saturday night into Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures and gusty winds are expected Sunday morning.

- Chances (mainly 20 to 30 percent) for precipitation returns to the area for middle to later portions of next week.

SHORT TERM

Issued 100 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Early to mid evening we will start to see the low pressure system push through with the frontal passage turning southwest winds to the north by midnight for most of southern WI. We likely remain dry overnight for most of southern WI though central parts of WI may see some light rain showers at times though models try to keep the CWA largely dry. Into Sunday morning chances primarily across the eastern half of the CWA will increase for rain showers. It is difficult to project how expansive shower activity will be at this time but CAMs show at least some. The problem with potential seems in large part driven by dry air issues aloft. Models largely show a deep layer of moderately dry air from 700-900mb. Some models show this being overcome, some do not, but based on the CAMs there seems to be enough moisture at times to squeeze out a few showers at the very least with more widespread shower activity still possible. The widespread activity is going to be largely dependent on if there is enough forcing for a long enough period of time above 700mb to moisten up the lower levels.

The precip chances will largely be restricted to the morning hours with the system and any remnant moisture pushing out as higher pressure pushes in behind this system. The cold front will be fairly strong temperature wise as lows Sunday night will be back into the mid 20s. Monday is then expected to be largely clear and quiet with high pressure moving directly overhead. Light and variable winds expected with highs ranging from the low 40s closer to the lake to the low 50s in western parts of the CWA. High pressure will push out Monday night as a weak front approaches from the northwest associated with clouds that will begin pushing in. The clouds will moderate low temperatures overnight.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 100 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

Tuesday through Thursday chances will begin to increase as shortwave activity increases with increased moisture in the mid- levels. Chances Tuesday look largely to stay north of the CWA as a weak front trails through the region with drier air in the lower levels pushing in behind it but a few showers cannot be ruled out especially given moist midlevels and decent WAA. Lots of uncertainty into Tuesday night/Wednesday as another system pushes in from the west. There looks to be continued battles with dry air and forcing is not expected to be substantial but decent WAA and likely enough forcing should allow for at least some precip during this period.

The best chance for precip next week looks to be Thursday related to a fairly strong surface low and upper level shortwave swinging through. However, there are increased concerns on whether the timing of this system pushing through will limit the precip potential because it is likely to feature storm chances along the warm front but the warm front may be too far east by initiation time. We may still see precip from the north side of the system in the region of WAA aloft but much of the precip may miss the area. This is the day to watch for storm chances, however, as slowed timing of the system may yield storms into the CWA but at this time the best chances remain in northern IL. In any case things would be expected to dry out behind the front Friday as strong high pressure pushes in. Next weekend has trended drier in recent model runs due to strong surface high pressure pushing in and dry air in the upper levels likely limiting overall precip potential.

On the temperature front, the middle of next week looks to be on the warmer side as the jet remains north of the region in addition to the impact of the large scale ridging in the the southwest US. Best chance for a widespread return to more normal temperatures comes after the frontal passage Thursday. Onshore lake winds may keep northeast CWA cooler during the warm stretch but the predominant temperatures are expected to be above normal.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 100 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Breezy south to southwest winds this afternoon is expected with FEW to SCT high clouds. As the front pushes in this evening expected BKN high clouds to push in with northerly winds behind the front. VFR conditions expected through much of tonight but MVFR CIGS will likely push in across most of southern WI for a period late tonight through the late morning to early afternoon before they rise to VFR and then clear out through the afternoon. A brief period of fog will be possible across east central WI later tonight but looks unlikely at this time. Otherwise breezy north winds Sunday with a slight chance for a shower in the morning hours.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 100 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Low pressure around 29.5 inches has developed across the north central US today and will continue pushing east across the lake tonight. As this low passes south of the lake winds will shift to the north and northeast and become gusty later tonight into Sunday morning. A few northerly gales are possible Sunday, mainly over southern portions of the lake. High pressure around 30.4 inches should then bring decreasing winds for Monday through Monday night. Into Tuesday winds may pick up a bit from the south as the high exits and weak front passes over the region. Winds over the lake will remain largely from the south through Wednesday as broad low pressure approaches from the west. Chances for precipitation on Tuesday and again on Wednesday though primarily for northern parts of the lake.

In the nearshore southwest winds may advect into the nearshore waters today with gusts up to 25 knots and thus a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1z tonight. Another Small Craft is also now in effect for breezy north winds across the lake Sunday morning through Sunday evening with gusts up to 30 knots and wave height from 6-9 feet.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 8 PM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday.