textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances (30 to 60 percent) continue across the area tonight, with the highest chances in northern parts of the area.

- There are small chances for showers and storms later Friday night into early Saturday morning. There is a lot of uncertainty if and where any showers and storms may develop.

- Warm and breezy conditions are expected Friday, with warm and increasingly humid conditions this weekend into early next week.

- Chances for showers and storms (30 to 50 percent-plus chances) are forecast at times this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued 552 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

High pressure moving southeast of the area today will bring dry and pleasant conditions. A southeast lake breeze is expected by midday into the afternoon near Lake Michigan. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland are forecast, with cooler values near the lake.

Some low level warm air advection and a low level jet may bring some moisture into the area tonight, with a passing 500 mb vorticity maximum. CAMs are showing some light showers moving east northeast across the area, with the better chances in far northern portions of the area where better upward motion resides. Kept 30 to 60 percent chances, highest in the far north, for tonight.

Warm air advection on breezy south winds Friday should bring warm temperatures into the middle to upper 70s, with some lower 80s in northwest parts of the area. There may be some cooler temperatures right along the lakeshore north of Milwaukee.

There are chances for showers and small chances for storms later Friday night into early Saturday morning (30 to 60 percent chances for showers, highest west of Madison, with 20 percent chances for storms). The higher PoPs were cut back to just areas west of Madison.

There is a lot of uncertainty if and where any showers and storms develop. It will depend on where the low level jet nose sets up and if any storms develop to the west and move east into the area. There are indications that this activity may remain to the south of the area, if the low level jet focuses more there.

SPC has a marginal severe risk in western portions of the area later Friday night, as there could be enough elevated CAPE and effective shear in that layer to support some hail. However, there is a fairly large cap that may limit any elevated storms, so a lot of uncertainty remains for this period.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 1121 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Overnight through Friday:

Skies cleared and the northerly winds diminished quickly this evening with the sunset. High pressure, clear skies, calm wind, and dewpoints in the mid 30s will allow temps to cool into the upper 30s tonight. There will be a few pockets of cooler temps, closer to 36. Thus, patchy frost is possible late tonight, especially within the Rock River valley and toward central WI.

High pressure will slowly cross Wisconsin and lower Michigan tonight through Thursday night. This means light winds for southern WI with a lake breeze developing by early afternoon, pushing inland in the late afternoon and early evening. The return flow around the high will give us high temps in the lower 70s west of Madison.

An upper trough associated with a closed upper low tracking across the Canadian Plains will cross MN and WI Thu nt into Fri morning. The strongest mid level forcing will be closest to this upper low, so over northern WI, but weak 850mb warm air advection will be ongoing over southern WI. In addition, a weak shortwave will be crossing IA and northern IL. So the forecast 6-hrly precip fields in the models shows up as a north-south band of rain crossing WI Thu nt into Fri morning. However, the precip should be light, scattered, and probably with the steadier precip focused toward northern WI and northern IL (splitting around southern WI). This event is not a promise for a soaking rain for us.

Once the trough clears us by mid morning, expect sunshine and high temps in the upper 70s to around 80 on increasing southerly winds.

Cronce

LONG TERM

Issued 1121 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Friday night through Wednesday:

Thunderstorms are looking more likely to develop in the Plains (Kansas/northern MO/southeast IA) Friday evening on the nose of the low level jet. If a large complex develops, it would track into northern IL and may be clip southern WI late Fri nt. There is uncertainty in how far north this complex could get, so southwest WI and portions of south central WI were included in the afternoon Day 3 SPC Convective outlook. Models seem to favor the southern route at this time (not in WI).

The Midwest weather pattern will become more active Saturday through Monday as an upper trough develops in the western US. Southern WI has chances for thunderstorms each afternoon/evening/overnight, but our chances will be closely tied to where the previous complex diminished, and where the effective warm front sets up. The day with the strongest forcing closest to southern WI will be Monday.

Saturday highs will be in the lower 80s. With westerly winds of 10 mph or less, the lake breeze may be able to overcome it by late afternoon, but that will be late enough for lakeshore highs in the upper 70s. Sunday will be a reload day in terms of heat and humidity, and we may see some showers and thunderstorms with warm air advection, mainly in south central WI. Highs Sunday should have a large gradient across southern WI, ranging from the lower 60s near Sheboygan to the lower 80s near Darlington (Lafayette county).

Monday looks very warm (highs in upper 80s), but only if the warm front can get all the way up into northern WI and if the precip holds off until the afternoon.

Cronce

AVIATION

Issued 552 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

High pressure moving southeast of the area today will bring dry and pleasant conditions. A southeast lake breeze is expected by midday into the afternoon for terminals near Lake Michigan, with light south winds inland.

Some light showers (30 to 60 percent chances, highest far northern areas) are forecast tonight. May add in PROB30 groups for some terminals. Ceilings and visibility should remain VFR category. South winds should gradually increase tonight.

Breezy south winds are expected Friday, with gusts up to 25 knots at times in the afternoon. Some diurnal cumulus clouds around 3500 feet AGL may develop during the day.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 552 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Northwest winds will weaken later this morning into this afternoon, as high pressure around 30.1 inches moves southeast over Lake Michigan. The high will move southeast tonight, with breezy southerly winds developing on Friday and lingering into Friday night.

A few gales are possible Friday afternoon and evening in northern portions of the lake. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Friday into Friday night for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan.

Southwest to south winds may linger into Saturday, before northeast to east winds develop Saturday night into Sunday and increase, as a warm front develops to the south of the region. The increasing winds should then become southeast Sunday night and south into Monday, as the warm front moves northward across the region. Showers and thunderstorms may accompany the warm front as it moves northward Sunday night into Monday.

Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels Monday for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, perhaps lingering Monday night into Tuesday.

Cronce/Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.