textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trending well above-normal (5-15+ degrees) in southwest Wisconsin Thursday & areawide Friday through the middle of next week.

- Mainly dry conditions through early next week, with the next chances (~30-50%) for widespread rain returning late Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1148 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Today through Thursday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: High pressure is in the process of crossing southern Wisconsin late this evening, resulting in light/variable or calm surface winds across the region. An area of surface low pressure has been analyzed along the South Dakota-Nebraska border, with an accompanying warm front extending east from the low into southern Minnesota and east-central Iowa. Affiliated with the aforementioned surface warm front, increasing warm advection & frontogenesis near the 925 mb level has encouraged a band of low-mid cloud development from west-central into south-central Wisconsin. Sky conditions remain clearer further east. Currently over southeastern Montana, an upper shortwave will shift from the Northern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley from the rest of the overnight into Thursday morning, bringing increasing mid-upper level clouds to all of southern Wisconsin. High pressure will progress into the Ohio River Valley Thursday afternoon, allowing the warm front currently west of the region to slowly work northeast. Anticipate that the boundary will make it into southwestern Wisconsin by mid-late afternoon, with lingering snow pack & light east winds off Lake Michigan hindering further northeastward progress. Thus anticipate relatively wide high temperature spread from southwest to northeast on Thursday afternoon. The front will gradually wash out Thursday night as low level southwesterly winds become predominant areawide.

Rest of Tonight: While not expected to be widespread, a few patches of shallow ground fog can't be ruled out with winds remaining light and variable. Potential for ground fog would be greatest in low- lying spots. Don't anticipate any dense fog if/where any shallow ground fog forms, with any activity quickly dissipating after daybreak.

Thursday: With a warm front working into southwestern Wisconsin, expect relatively wide spread in daytime highs (potentially 10-15 degrees) from southwest to northeast, with areas along/behind the warm front climbing into the mid-upper 40s & spots further northeast remaining in the mid-upper 30s. With easterly winds blowing off Lake Michigan further north and east, could even see a weak lake breeze develop by late afternoon, which would locally knock temperatures back into the lower 30s near the immediate lakeshore.

Quigley

LONG TERM

Issued 1148 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

Synopsis: High pressure will continue to migrate east into the Appalachians on Friday, maintaining southwesterly surface flow & moderating temperatures areawide. Large scale west-southwest winds will remain persistent through the majority of the long term period, allowing well above-normal warmth (temperatures between 5-15+ degrees higher than average) to continue into the middle of next week. Whether any record high temperatures will be set--- particularly at inland locations during the Saturday to Monday time frame---remains uncertain as of this forecast, with trends being monitored over coming updates. Due in large part to a lack of overlap between focused forcing mechanisms & sufficient low level moisture, conditions will remain mostly if not entirely dry through the beginning of next week across southern Wisconsin. A more organized disturbance will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing the next chances for widespread precipitation to the area. Given very mild antecedent conditions, currently anticipate that said precip would fall as all rain.

Saturday Night into Sunday: If there were to be any changes to the currently completely dry forecast through early next week, this would be the first of two time periods to monitor. A northern stream shortwave will quickly move from the Canadian Prairies to Lake Superior, pulling a weak cold front across the region in the process. A dry frontal passage is currently favored, as a far more potent southern stream trough is progged to simultaneously move from the Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley & command the majority/all of low level moisture transport. Nevertheless, if moisture transport to the northern stream system were to tick upward, a few light sprinkles or rain showers would become possible along the passing cold frontal boundary. Will continue to monitor trends in coming forecasts. Any "cool down" affiliated with the front will be minor, given an anticipated mild post-frontal air mass and return of southwesterly winds by Sunday evening.

Monday: This will be the second of two time periods to monitor for potential shifts away from the currently dry forecast through Tuesday. Occurring in response to returning southwesterly flow, a renewed push of low level warm advection will move into the western Great Lakes, with accompanying frontogenesis encouraging some potential scattered rain showers. Guidance currently paints said frontogenesis over mainly northern Wisconsin, though any southward trends would put parts of the area in position to see some scattered light showers. Will continue to watch north-south trends over the coming forecasts.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Global deterministic & ensemble guidance shows the most organized disturbance of the period moving into the western Great Lakes. Lift from the disturbance, combined with accompanying surface fronts, will thus support the lone chance for widespread & measurable precip of the forecast period. Have maintained the ~30-50% precip probabilities from the NBM in the evening forecast given lingering uncertainties regarding the precise timing of the disturbance and frontal passages. With well above- normal temperatures in place areawide, currently expect that all precip would fall as rain.

Quigley

AVIATION

Issued 1148 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR flight categories prevail late this evening across southern Wisconsin, and are expected to continue through the duration of the period at all terminals. High pressure is in the process of crossing the area, and will encourage predominantly light & variable surface winds through Thursday morning as it continues to move east. Given the light winds, can't entirely rule out a few patches of FG in low- lying areas through daybreak, though confidence is too low to justify mentions in the current forecast. Will monitor trends through tonight. A weak disturbance will progress from the Northern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley through the remainder of the overnight through Thursday morning, resulting to SCT to BKN mid- upper level clouds. Anticipate that any light precip affiliated with the disturbance will remain southwest of the region. A warm front will attempt to work into southern Wisconsin Thursday afternoon, potentially approaching MSN and JVL. If the boundary were to reach either terminal, a southwest wind shift would occur during the mid- late afternoon hours. Will continue to monitor observational and model guidance trends over the coming forecasts. No precip is anticipated along the approaching warm front.

Quigley

MARINE

Issued 1148 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

1026 mb high pressure is centered over central Wisconsin late this evening, with west-northwest winds tapering across the open waters of Lake Michigan. Winds will continue to lighten through the remainder of the overnight hours into Thursday afternoon as the aforementioned area of high pressure gradually crosses the waters. The high will progress east into Appalachian Mountains Thursday night through Friday, allowing for light southwesterly winds to become established across the lake. Generally west-southwest winds will continue through Saturday as 1002 mb low pressure forms over northern Manitoba. Low pressure will continue east across the Hudson Bay Saturday night through Sunday morning, pulling a weak cold front across Lake Michigan in the process. Precipitation is not currently anticipated during the frontal passage, though winds will briefly shift out of the northwest Sunday afternoon behind the departing boundary.

Winds will trend light & variable Sunday night, when 1020 mb high pressure is forecast to move across the open waters. Winds will trend south to southwesterly Monday as the high shifts east, with readings steadily increasing through Tuesday as 998 mb low pressure forms over the northern Great Plains. Said low will approach and ultimately cross the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday, resulting in a westerly wind shift by Wednesday afternoon. A few gales are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, though how widespread they would be remains uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored in coming forecasts. Rain will accompany the passing low Tuesday night through Wednesday, with some snow possible over northern Lake Michigan.

Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated in nearshore zones through this weekend. Wind gusts and wave heights will steadily increase Monday through Wednesday ahead of developing low pressure in the Northern Plains, resulting in a likely return of Small Craft Advisory conditions from as early as Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Trends will continue to be monitored over coming forecasts, with any headlines being addressed closer to the onset of conditions early next week.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.