textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- 20-40 percent chances for light showers over se WI and far srn WI early Sun AM. Cool and mostly cloudy on Sunday.

- Next chances for thunderstorms develop Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Too early to tell intensity, but monitoring for potential stronger storms. Rain chances of 70-90 percent both days with heavy rain possible Wed and Wed nt.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Tonight through Monday:

Weak 850-700 mb frontogenesis will continue across far srn WI much of the night as the upstream shortwave trough over the Dakotas does not move across srn WI until after 12Z Sun. Any showers that do occur will likely be high based and relatively light. Nwly sfc winds and cold advection will increase Sun AM as the upper wave approaches from the west with cold advection continuing into the early afternoon. Broken stratocumulus is expected to develop by late morning and last into mid afternoon. Thus high temps only in the upper 60s are forecast.

Winds will return to wly for Sun nt-Mon as high pressure moves across the central USA and low pressure approaches from Canada. Weak warm advection will begin on Mon. High temps will rebound back into the middle 70s.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Monday night through Saturday:

There is much better agreement among the GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble for the low pressure areas on Tue and Wed. A amplifying shortwave trough will approach within nwly flow aloft late Mon nt-Tue AM, while a west to east sfc trough moves from Canada into MN and nrn WI. Cyclogenesis will ensue into east central WI toward 00Z Wed with a cold front to move across srn WI in the afternoon. LIs of -3 to -6C are forecast via cold air aloft, with a good potential for hail with the thunderstorms.

A fast moving positive tilt shortwave trough will then move across the nrn Great Plains to srn WI Wed-Wed nt, with the sfc low to track from IA on Wed to along the WI and IL border Wed evening. A strong low to mid level baroclinic zone will set up over srn WI with warm, moist advection and frontogenesis producing widespread showers and storms. Elevated severe storms and heavy rainfall will be possible. Weak shortwave troughs will then continue to bring small chances for showers and storms the remainder of the week.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions tnt-Sun nt but scattered showers are forecast tnt. Any precipitation that does form will likely have high cloud bases. Bkn040 stratocumulus to then develop for late Sun AM and last for much of the afternoon.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A cold front will slowly move southeast across far southern Lake Michigan into the overnight. Modest west to southwest winds will become northwest with the frontal passage. Modest northwest winds will continue through Sunday. Winds then shift southwesterly on Monday as high pressure passes to the south and low pressure of 29.7 inches progresses south from Canada. The low pressure area then crosses northern Lake Michigan Tuesday afternoon or evening with breezy southwesterly winds to the south of the low. On Wednesday, another low pressure area will progress eastward across Iowa and across southern Lake Michigan Wednesday night. Breezy southeast winds will develop over the lake Wednesday afternoon with shifting variable winds Wednesday night, becoming north to northwest on Thursday. Gales will be possible during this time. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected with both low pressure areas.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.