textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow accumulations (1 inch or less) are expected this morning, which may impact the morning commute (especially towards east-central Wisconsin).

- A mix of light snow (1 inch or less) and freezing drizzle is likely between midnight tonight and 9 AM CST Friday morning. This may impact the Friday morning commute.

- A Gale Watch is in effect for the open waters of Lake Michigan mid-morning Friday through the evening hours. Northerly winds gusting 35 to 40 knots and building waves in ice free areas are expected.

- Low chances (10-25%) for light snow Saturday night, mainly towards east-central WI.

UPDATE

Issued 610 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The forecast remains generally on track, so I will focus only on what has changed since the short term discussion was issued.

As of right now (6 AM CST), light accumulating snowfall is confirmed towards east-central WI (with Fond du Lac and Sheboygan airports confirming), with some flurries extending south to Watertown / Waukesha / Milwaukee / Janesville. This light snow is expected to progress southeastward across the region, wrapping up around noon (or soon thereafter). That leaves us with dry weather and low clouds for the afternoon and evening today. We still can't completely rule out patchy freezing drizzle this afternoon and evening, though we've limited the chances for measurable precip to 10% for this time period. Snow totals have decreased slightly, though east-central WI still stands a chance of reaching or locally exceeding the 1 inch mark (given that accumulating snow has already begun). Mostly a dusting to less than 1 inch elsewhere.

The late tonight / Friday morning precip remains on track with prior expectations, though we can now confine the time range of that activity from midnight CST tonight thru 9 AM CST Friday (when the vast majority of model QPF falls). From 9 AM to 3 PM Friday, we've limited precip chances to ~30% or less. Snow totals for this second phase are in the ballpark of 1 inch or less (for now), with predominantly 'just snow' falling towards east central WI and a mix of snow and freezing drizzle / freezing rain for the rest of the region (glaze of ice possible). Once concerning trend has been the shift / re-centering of model QPF further south (over top of our region), meaning that the potential Friday AM commute impacts could be more of a 'region wide' threat as opposed to mainly just east-central WI. That said, the higher snow accumulation potential (to around 1 inch) remains in east-central WI due to the lack of rain mixing in. Locally higher amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range can no longer be completely ruled out.

Sheppard

SHORT TERM

Issued 1213 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Today through Saturday night:

Dry and quiet weather is expected tonight. Clouds will increase from the north ahead of our next chance for precipitation Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Warm air advection and good frontogenesis will kick off the snow showers during the morning hours. There is a small chance 10% or less for some freezing drizzle to develop as we loose cloud ice during the latter half of this precip event (late morning/early afternoon). Its more likely that once the snow starts that it remains snow throughout the event with many of the sounding profiles backing that up. The profiles have dried up in the low levels quiet a bit compared to previous runs with a nice inverted V sounding and the cloud layer looks to be much shallower. Can't rule it out completely as if there is any forcing the cloud layer is low enough to prevent any ice cry formation. Regardless there are likely to be some impacts to the morning commute as snow starts to fall and could easily accumulate on roads and elevated surfaces. Generally expecting some light to moderate rates for snowfall around 0.5 inch/hr.

By this afternoon, the snow will end and temperatures will continue to climb with a few locations pulling above freezing (above 32). Dry weather, quiet conditions and overcast skies will persist however through Thursday evening with the next chance for precip coming late Thursday night into Friday morning. THis second chance for rain will be driven by a sfc cold front and upper level shortwave. Despite this largely occuring overnight in colder temperatures, there looks to again be a struggle with the formation of and presence of ice crystals in the cloud deck for snow. Snow and freezing drizzle will be the predominate weather type. There isnt a clear time for precip change over nor is it expected to be solely freezing drizzle. If we do loose cloud ice then its will likely be isolated patches that don't last long. The Friday morning commute may likely be impacted.

Dry weather will then return for Friday afternoon through Saturday evening across southern Wisconsin. While Friday brings warming temperatures into the mid to upper 30s, Saturday is expected to be a bit colder behind the cold front with highs in the low to mid 20s. As high pressure moves through Saturday into Saturday night, there is a small chance (15%) for some mid level WAA to kick off some flurries/light snow Saturday night, but confidence on this is low.

Patterson

LONG TERM

Issued 1213 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Sunday through Tuesday:

The low chances for precipitation (15% or less) may linger into the early morning hours sunday morning as the mid level WAA pulls east out of the state. Otherwise, Sunday will be largely dry for southern Wisconsin as the ridge remains aloft and sfc high pressure lingers across the Great Lakes Region.

The upper level ridging will remain through Monday before the ridge looks flattens out and moves east. This is where guidances starts to diverge a bit in the extended. The GFS really flattens out the ridge and a shortwave trough moves through this much more zonal pattern while CAN and EURo have a more amplified ridge moving east. The more amplified ridge keeps the shortwave further north. This shows up in the ensembles and when looking at the clusters analysis as well with a monopole set up (uncertainties in amplitude). There are some low chance POPs around 15% or less during this time on Tuesday due to this uncertainty with the shortwave and ridging. More substantial troughing looks to move in by mid week which paints the extended with a lot of low chance POPs from Tuesday onward. This is likely due to the timing issues which will clean up as we get closer to the weekend and early next week.

Now the only other thing worth mentioning of the extended is there will be a warm up heading out way. Under the influence of high pressure Sunday through late Monday, Wisconsin will have south to southwesterly winds which will keep the WAA underway. There is a good chance that we could crack 40 degrees. For context this is above normal but well below the record values.

Patterson

AVIATION

Issued 600 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

MVFR cloud ceilings and light snow have begun to gradually push into the region, with the lowest visibilities (down to 2 SM) and accumulating snowfall currently towards east-central WI (and further north / west), flurries reported as far south as Watertown / Waukesha, and the rest of the weak radar returns further south struggling to reach the ground due to evaporation (though flurries are likely to make it down at some point this morning). The steadier snowfall will continue to shift southeastward from central / east-central WI over the course of this morning, dissipating towards mid-day today and leaving a lull (dry weather) into this afternoon and evening, with predominantly MVFR ceilings. Some patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out through this period (10% chance). Else, dry weather. A light southwest breeze today, veering west into this evening.

Between midnight tonight and 9 AM CST Friday morning, a second round of wintry precipitation is expected, with the MVFR ceilings likely to descend to IFR. This round will again feature light accumulating snow, but mixed with freezing drizzle (esp further south and west in the region). This activity will wind down after 9 AM, with only 30% precip chances lingering through the rest of Friday morning. Gusty northwest winds are expected to arrive around dawn Friday morning and intensify through the rest of the morning.

Sheppard

MARINE

Issued 1213 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure of 30.5 inches in Indiana will continue to shift southeast tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave. Light winds this evening will increase heading into Thursday out of the southwest as the pressure gradient tightens.

Low pressure of 29.4 inches will head eastward through James Bay Thursday night and continue eastward into Quebec on Friday, dragging a cold front through the Great Lakes region. Moderate westerly winds Thursday night will increase out of the northwest Friday behind the front. A Gale Watch is in effect for the open waters from mid-morning Friday through the evening hours. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed during this time as well. Additionally, a period of heavy freezing spray is looking likely from Friday afternoon through Friday night.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday to midnight Saturday.