textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures are expected for the rest of the week.

- Frost may occur each night away from Lake Michigan Tuesday night into Thursday night.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1102 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Overnight through Wednesday night:

Lingering gusty west northwest winds should gradually weaken overnight. One area of middle to high clouds will shift east of the area, with another area moving in overnight and into Tuesday morning. This should settle more in the southern/southeastern portions of the area, where some 700 mb to 500 mb frontogenesis response may remain. This may bring some sprinkles or isolated light showers overnight. Lows should drop into the upper 30s northwest to the middle 40s far south and southeast.

Diurnal stratocumulus clouds may develop in the late morning into the afternoon on Tuesday around 7000 feet AGL, with forecast soundings showing some moisture at this level. Modest west northwest winds are expected, with a southeast lake breeze possible late in the day. Cooler highs should reach into the middle 50s.

A shortwave trough should gradually shift southeast toward the area Wednesday, then shift through the area Wednesday evening. Forecast soundings are rather dry besides more diurnal stratocumulus clouds Wednesday afternoon and some middle to high clouds at times. For now, kept the forecast dry.

Lows Tuesday night should drop into the middle to upper 30s across most areas away from Lake Michigan, with mainly middle 30s Wednesday night. Winds should be relatively weak each night, though there may be some middle to high clouds lingering at times. Still, it looks to be a good chance for frost to occur each night inland, especially Wednesday night. Frost/freeze headlines may eventually be needed.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 1102 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Thursday through Monday:

500 mb cluster analysis shows a persistent and anomalous broad trough/low over and north of the Great Lakes region during this period. This should keep the area in general cyclonic/northwest flow at 500 mb.

There may be some showers at times in the Thursday through Friday period, as a south southwest low level jet and some warm air advection brings in some moisture and upward vertical motion. There may also be some differential CVA from a passing 500 mb vorticity maximum on Thursday. A weak front then may shift southeast through the area on Friday.

Ensemble means and members are generally showing this trend, so will keep 20 to 30 percent chances for showers at times during this period. There may be enough instability for a rumble of thunder Thursday afternoon as well.

One more night of possible frost may occur Thursday night inland, though lows may remain in the upper 30s or higher. Temperatures look to slowly moderate Thursday into Friday, with highs rising into the 60s, with cooler values near the lake with lake breezes each day.

There is some signal for another frontal passage Saturday night, which may have more robust moisture profiles to work with and result in small chances (around 20 percent) for showers.

For the rest of this period, there is more uncertainty in ensemble trends with timing features through the region. Thus, will leave mainly 20 to 30 percent chances for showers going at times in this part of the forecast. Temperatures are generally trending slowly warmer during this time as well.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 1102 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Lingering gusty west northwest winds should gradually weaken overnight. One area of middle to high clouds will shift east of the area, with another area moving in overnight and into Tuesday morning. This should settle more in the southern/southeastern portions of the area. This may bring some sprinkles or isolated light showers overnight.

Diurnal stratocumulus clouds may develop in the late morning into the afternoon on Tuesday around 7000 feet AGL. Modest west northwest winds are expected, with a southeast lake breeze possible late in the day.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 1102 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A cold front will push southeast across the southern portions of the lake into the overnight hours, shifting gusty southwest winds to the west northwest. These winds will weaken overnight as well. The cold front is in association with low pressure around 29.0 inches moving east across James Bay through Tuesday.

West to northwest winds then persist through the first half of Tuesday. Winds will become light and variable Tuesday afternoon and night, as a weak surface ridge passes over the lake. Mainly light to modest winds are expected Wednesday afternoon and night, before south to southwest winds return Thursday into Friday.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.