textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog and low stratus over far se WI tonight including some dense fog.

- Light rain or drizzle likely (60 percent) Wed nt from Madison to Milwaukee and south. Light to moderate rain (60-80 percent) continuing Thu AM over much of S WI.

- Moderate to brief heavy rainfall rates Fri-Fri nt with embedded thunderstorms expected.

- Very mild Friday and again early next week.

SHORT TERM

Issued 912 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Today through Thursday:

Stratus clouds drifted back north into MKE early this evening around high pressure over srn Lake MI. The stratus then lowered with even dense fog over portions of se MKE County. Low stratus and fog continue over Racine and Kenosha Counties and along the state line toward Janesville. With stagnant conditions expected, will maintain the low stratus and fog through the night with patchy fog possible elsewhere. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Freezing fog and slick roads are possible over this region.

For Wed, the stratus may continue over far se WI and near the state line while the remainder of srn WI should see mostly sunny skies and mild temps. Widespread low stratus, drizzle, and light rain will then gradually develop nwd Wed nt. This is in response to a shortwave trough approaching from the Great Plains and reaching ern IA by 12Z Thu. Low to mid level warm, moist advection will ensue with the aforementioned stratus and light drizzle or rain. The shortwave trough will then pass across far nrn IL on Thu with weak sfc low pressure late Fri nt while low pressure tracks through wrn and nrn WI, likely reaching Ontario Sat AM. The cold front will then pass on Sat, likely in the morning. passing just to the south across the nrn Ohio River Valley. Thus expect 50-80 percent chances for rain on Thu with mdt rainfall rates at times over se WI. PWATs will actually increase to 0.80-1.00 inches.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 912 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Weak shortwave ridging will briefly take hold Thu nt in the wake of the shortwave trough. Stratus clouds will likely linger and small rain chances will return toward daybreak over south central WI.

An upper low over the Intermountain West Thu nt will then eject newd as an open shortwave trough to nrn WI by 12Z Sat. A weak sfc low or wave of low pressure will track to se MN or sw WI by Fri evening. The GEFS does become a bit more amplified late Fri nt as the low moves across the nrn Great Lakes. Nevertheless, a good surge of warm, moist advection on a strong swly low level jet is expected Fri-Fri nt. Widespread rain (80-100 percent) with embedded thunderstorms are expected. The sfc warm front will reach central WI by Fri evening with a cold front to quickly follow for Sat AM. Overall the timing and evolution of this system has been changing a bit, but a mild and wet period is still likely. High temps in the 50s and 60s are forecast.

Afterward an active quasi-zonal polar jet stream over srn Canada will then result in strong low pressure tracking ewd across far nrn Ontario on Sunday and possibly again on Monday. This will support dry swly winds and warm advection over srn WI with continued mild temps. Rain could then return for Tue when an upper trough digs into the Great Plains and low pressure and cold front approach.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 912 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Cigs below 1 kft will likely continue tnt into Wed AM from Milwaukee south to Kenosha and west to Janesville. Patchy dense fog will occur at times over se Milwaukee County but it could expand. Otherwise, patchy light fog can expected elsewhere over S WI mainly along and south of a line from Lone Rock to Watertown to Mequon. By 15-17Z Wed the fog should have dissipated but bkn010-030 may occur at times from Milwaukee swd and all along the WI and IL border. Widespread stratus of 600-1500 feet will then gradually move nwd from IL and overspread much of srn WI by late Wed nt. Very light rain and BR will accompany the low stratus.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 912 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A west to east area of high pressure will remain extended across southern Lake Michigan to the lower Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday. Light and variable winds are expected.

Light to modest easterly flow will then become established from Wednesday night into Thursday night as weak low pressure passes across the northern Ohio River Valley.

Low pressure around 29.5 inches will develop in the central Plains Thursday night, and track toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley by Friday evening. This low will move near or just north of Lake Michigan later Friday night into Saturday morning, quickly moving into Quebec by Saturday evening. As the low passes to the north, breezy southerly winds will develop for Friday afternoon and night then shifting northwest on Saturday with the passage of the cold front. Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will accompany the approaching and passing low Friday into Friday night.

Areas of fog will be found near the shoreline from North Point Lighthouse to Winthrop Harbor tonight into Wednesday morning.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.