textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances (30 to 60 percent) tonight

- There is a 40-60 percent chance for showers and storms Friday night into early Saturday, though a lot of uncertainty remains with the development and placement of these storms

- Warm and and increasingly humid conditions this weekend into early next week along with additional shower/storm chances. There will be a chance for strong to severe storms on Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1225 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

There will be a chance for showers tonight as moisture and warm air advection aloft increase with the passage of a shortwave. Models are still showing a lot of dry air in the lowest 10 kft though, with model QPF also limited. Kept precip chances around 50 percent for now as a result. This will probably be a situation where precip chances are adjusted higher or lower based on if much rain is hitting the ground upstream as the precip approaches.

It should be mainly dry and warm on Friday behind the departing wave. Clouds will probably linger through the morning as the 850 mb trough exits, but there should be increasing sunshine in the afternoon. The afternoon sun in combination with breezy southerly winds should result in high temps in the mid 70s to around 80 most places.

Confidence is increasing in a round of showers and storms Friday night into early Saturday morning. The gradient of deeper moisture and higher instability is expected to be across southern Wisconsin, which will open the door for upstream convection to roll through the forecast area overnight. There is still some uncertainty with storm timing and placement, but precip chances are on the upward trend for this period.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 1225 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

Saturday still looks warm and mainly dry, though the chance for showers and storms continue to gradually increase. This is because models continue to trend northward with the higher dewpoints, bringing a more unstable environment into southern Wisconsin. That said, the Fri night precip may shut down storm chances for much of Saturday, especially if showers/storms don't exit until early to mid-morning. Though the moisture and instability may be in place, there might not be much of a trigger to kick off storms during the daytime hours.

Storm chances will increase Saturday evening into Sunday as the deeper moisture and widespread instability return to southern Wisconsin along with a shortwave lifting through the area. Above normal temps are expected Sunday, though there is some uncertainty with afternoon highs, depending on the timing of clouds and precip. Instability, lapse rates, and shear on Sunday suggest a severe storm potential as the wave lifts through during the morning and early afternoon hours.

Monday into Monday night continues to look like the most likely period for widespread showers and storms, with southern Wisconsin solidly in the warm sector of an approaching low. Though shear doesn't look as strong as expected Sunday, moisture, instability, and forcing look solid enough for another severe storm potential.

Confidence is on the lower end with precip chances for Tuesday into mid-week given model timing differences with the exit of the early week system and the arrival of a mid-week shortwave. Temps look cooler, with highs likely back near normal by Wed/Thu.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 1225 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Light winds and mostly clear skies will persist into this afternoon. Winds will be southerly most locations, except for east to southeast winds developing near Lake Michigan by late morning as a lake breeze moves inland.

There will be a chance for showers tonight, with a lot of dry air in the lowest 10 kft limiting how much rain will actually hit the ground. Additionally, this dry air will likely result in continued VFR conditions.

South to southwest winds will be breezy (gusts to 20 knots) on Friday, with dry weather likely during the daytime hours. There could be a period of MVFR ceilings from mid-morning to mid- afternoon tomorrow as the 850 mb trough exits.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 1225 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

High pressure of 30.1 inches overhead this morning will continue to shift eastward this afternoon into tonight, with southerly winds developing on the back side of the high. These winds will increase on Friday behind the departing high and low pressure of 29.1 inches moving from central Manitoba into Ontario. A few gale force gusts will be possible in northern portions of the lake tomorrow afternoon and evening, though this setup looks too borderline for a Gale Watch at this point. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed north of Milwaukee tomorrow due to increasing waves, with a few gusts to advisory levels possible too.

Southerly winds will persist on Saturday, while becoming lighter as the low pulls away to the northeast. Southerly winds will then pick back up Sunday into Monday ahead of approaching low pressure. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will be possible this weekend into early next week.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.