textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills are expected tonight into the weekend. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect from 12 AM CST Friday until 1 PM CST Friday for wind chills 35 to 42 below zero.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 PM CST Friday until 12 PM CST Saturday for wind chills of 20 below to 30 below zero. A few areas may see continued wind chills at or below negative 30 degrees into Friday afternoon/evening. Localized extensions to the Extreme Cold Warning may be needed.

- Potential for snow showers off Lake Michigan Saturday evening through Sunday, but probabilities remain low (20-40 percent in Lake Michigan Counties through south-central Wisconsin).

- Wind chills in the teens below zero are expected each night Saturday through Monday, and may reach Cold Weather Advisory levels Sunday night into Monday morning.

UPDATE

Issued 930 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Still some spotty snow showers toward central WI but otherwise expect some patchy low clouds potentially impacting some of the rapid temperatures declines this evening but that should largely clear out later tonight and allow the temperatures to fall to the negative teens with breezy overnight winds.

Kuroski

SHORT TERM

Issued 318 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Tonight through Saturday:

As low pressure exits through Quebec tonight, lingering snow showers will taper off from west to east. Additional accumulations of less than 1 inch are expected. Lowered visibilities are still possible within the strongest bands of showers, primarily in southeastern Wisconsin.

Winds continue to tilt farther northwesterly as a strong Arctic high pressure system noses southeastward tonight. This will usher in rapidly falling temperatures, with lows in the negative teens expected. Lows as low as negative 20 degrees are possible in portions of southwestern and central Wisconsin. Looking upstream this morning, temperatures still remain below negative 20 degrees in portions of northwestern Minnesota and in the negative teens in central Minnesota. This dense, cold air will work its way southeastward through tonight, resulting in very cold air combining with very gusty winds (~30 to 40 mph gusts). Wind chills will therefore be in the negative 35 to negative 42 degree range. Wind chills this low can result in frostbite within 10 minutes. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect from midnight tonight through 1 PM CST Friday.

Friday morning, winds will diminish to gust only between 20 and 25 mph, with temperatures remaining in the low negative teens. Therefore, dangerous wind chills will linger through Friday morning. Friday afternoon, expect temperatures to begin to improve as winds diminish to blow at 15 to 20 mph. Expect high temperatures in the negative single digits, with wind chills in the negative 20s. This will still be dangerously cold. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for Friday afternoon starting at 1 PM CST for these levels of dangerous cold.

As the core of high pressure moves overhead Friday night, some areas may briefly see winds lower, especially toward southwestern Wisconsin. Elsewhere, expect winds to remain around 10-15 mph, bringing continued wind chills in the negative 20s. Towards daybreak Saturday, expect lows in the low negative teens, with again temperatures near negative 20 degrees in central Wisconsin. Therefore, high confidence remains in continuing the Cold Weather Advisory through Friday night and even into Saturday morning.

A deep low pressure system will then develop across the Southern Plains into early Saturday morning. This will allow for northerly winds to increase as the pressure gradient increases. Currently still have only low confidence in exact winds due to the interplay of the dense, cold air (which is typically nearly unmovable and will be centered over southern Wisconsin) with the low pressure to the south. Regardless, expecting increasing cloud cover and some potential for increased winds once again. With the combination of forecast temperatures near Cold Weather Advisory criteria and even light winds contributing to dangerous cold, have continued the Advisory through Saturday at noon CST. A few snow showers may creep into far southern and southeastern Wisconsin Saturday afternoon, but main concerns are not expected until Saturday night.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 318 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Saturday night through Thursday:

High pressure will shift into nrn WI Sat nt while a north to south sfc trough develops from the Gulf Coast States into the srn and central Appalachians through Sunday. In addition, a shortwave trough approaching from the nw will pass Sun nt across srn WI. The nrn periphery of a large pcpn shield may extend into srn WI, but lake effect snow is also possible. Given the light synoptic winds and cold 850 mb temps, a mesovortex will likely develop over the srn basin of Lake MI Sat-Sat nt, but it is very uncertain whether it will affect the wrn shore of the lake. Sat nt-Sun nt is the window for snow with snow chances ranging from 20-50 percent, highest probabilities over far se WI. Arctic air will remain over srn WI during this time with single digit highs and below zero lows.

A sfc ridge will quickly progress across srn WI on Mon followed by swly winds and warm advection late Mon into Tue AM. Aloft, a large upper low will progress from Ontario into Quebec Mon-Tue with a weak cold frontal passage on Tue over srn WI. Light wnwly winds will then likely prevail through Thu with weak to modest cold advection as a west to east upper trough over srn Canada slides swd into the Great Lakes and New England. Thus high temps will range from the single digits to teens with lows around zero or below zero.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 930 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Patchy SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS continue across parts of southern Wisconsin, with VFR CIGS elsewhere. Some light snow showers still in continue toward central WI but will end over the next couple hours. Northwesterly breezy winds this evening, with a few gusts to 35 kt possible tonight. CIGS are expected to improve to VFR later tonight.

Northwesterly wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are expected into Friday morning, with gusts to 20 kt thereafter. Winds remain northwesterly but become less gusty Friday night into Saturday morning. Some winds may even calm by Saturday morning, especially from MSN westward.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 318 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Low pressure will track across central Quebec through Friday, while an arctic front follows across Lake Michigan tonight. West to northwest gales will prevail this afternoon through Friday morning with this surge of arctic air. Gale Warnings are in effect through Friday morning for all of Lake Michigan, with a Small Craft Advisory in nearshore regions. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is also in effect through early Saturday morning for the entire open waters.

Arctic high pressure will expand across the Great Lakes Friday night through Saturday night. This will allow for gradually weakening winds over Lake Michigan Friday night and remaining relatively light through the weekend.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Extreme Cold Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056- WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065- WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM Friday.

Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056- WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065- WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 PM Friday to noon Saturday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until noon Friday.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 3 AM Saturday.

Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 until 8 AM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Friday.