textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of frost linger into early this morning for mainly northern portions of the area. A Frost Advisory may be needed later tonight and early Monday morning over portions of southern Wisconsin.

- Breezy and cooler today, with some sprinkles in the late morning and afternoon in northern parts of the area.

- A clipper system brings higher end shower chances (50 to 80 percent) for Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will be possible, but no severe storms are anticipated at this time.

UPDATE

Issued 450 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas of frost will linger into early this morning for mainly northern portions of southern Wisconsin where temperatures have dipped into the middle 30s.

Northwest winds will become gusty today with deep mixing. There should be broken high-based stratocumulus clouds that develop by midday into the afternoon per forecast soundings. There may be enough moisture there for some sprinkles to develop later this morning into this afternoon, as some differential CVA from a lingering 500 mb trough moves through. Kept it in northern portions of the area, but it could occur further south as well. Highs should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure should move southeast into the region tonight and Monday, with lighter winds expected. Clearing skies tonight should allow for radiational cooling and more widespread lows in the middle 30s. Thus, a Frost Advisory may be needed for portions of the area.

An easterly lake breeze is expected later Monday morning into the afternoon. Highs should be in the 50s closer to the lakeshore, with upper 50s to middle 60s well inland.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 1227 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Today through Monday Night:

Areas of frost will be possible inland overnight. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, so a frost advisory will not be needed.

Today, expect mostly dry conditions, save for some small potential (~10%) for sprinkles north of I-94 in association with a weak shortwave aloft. Clouds will increase heading into the afternoon with widespread cu expected. Highs around 60.

Tonight, colder temperatures are expected in the low to mid 30s as high pressure builds into the region. More widespread frost is possible and a Frost Advisory may be needed.

Dry weather continues Monday as high pressure lingers. East winds off of the lake will lead to much cooler highs along the lake in the low 50s, while areas well inland will see highs in the low 60s.

CMiller

LONG TERM

Issued 1226 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

A low pressure system is expected to pass over the arrowhead region of Minnesota Tuesday morning and over Lake Superior during the afternoon. This low will drag a warm front over Wisconsin during the morning and then a cold front during the late afternoon. At this time, 2 periods of rain appear possible, with some scattered morning rain along the WAA push into our area, and then more rain along the cold front late in the day. The warm sector of the low doesn't look rich with moisture, and model soundings only show skinny CAPE in the environment during the afternoon. Any afternoon storms on Tuesday will likely be sub severe and weak, as only a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE and MUCAPE will be available.

High pressure then takes hold Wednesday through Thursday with WAA causing a warming trend heading into next weekend. A stormier pattern then takes hold next weekend as a warm front/stationary front parks over the region and passing shortwaves kick off rounds of potential showers and storms.

CMiller

AVIATION

Issued 450 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Northwest winds will become gusty today. There should be broken clouds around 7000 to 9000 feet AGL that develop by midday into the afternoon. There may be enough moisture there for some sprinkles to develop later this morning into this afternoon.

High pressure should move southeast into the region tonight and Monday, with lighter winds expected. Clearing skies are expected tonight and should be mostly clear into Monday.

An easterly lake breeze is expected later Monday morning into the afternoon, with light winds elsewhere.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 450 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

High pressure around 30.3 inches is expected to move from southern Manitoba to over Lake Michigan today into Monday. Relatively light and variable winds are expected during most of this period.

Northwest winds may be gusty near the Lake Michigan shoreline this afternoon, and may approach Small Craft Advisory levels.

A backdoor cold front is expected to shift southward across the lake late this afternoon and this evening, bringing briefly gusty northeast winds behind it before weakening.

Low pressure around 29.7 inches should then move gradually east southeast across or north of Lake Superior Tuesday into Tuesday night. The low will bring a cold front southeast through the region. Gusty south to southeast winds are expected ahead of the front Tuesday, veering west to northwest behind it and remaining gusty for Tuesday night into Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory for winds and waves may be needed for the nearshore waters for portions of Tuesday into Wednesday.

High pressure around 30.2 inches should then move southeast into the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing lighter winds.

CMiller/Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.