textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures remaining 10 to 15 degrees above normal for today, then trending back toward seasonal norms by the weekend.

- Rain expected late this afternoon into tonight, with a gradual transition to light snow working west to east late tonight into Friday morning. Dry weather expected by late Friday morning.

- Occasional chances for flurries / light snow this weekend, especially Saturday night (10-40% chances).

SHORT TERM

Issued 1220 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Today through Friday night:

Quiet and calm weather continue this morning and early afternoon, with periods of clear skies and scattered high clouds, increasing in coverage later today. Temperatures climb to the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon (slightly cooler by the Lake Michigan shoreline due to a light northeast breeze), marking another day of above-normal temperatures.

A Colorado low tracks northeastward today, deepening to around 988mb and crossing southern / central Lake Michigan by Friday morning. Rain showers are expected to arrive later this afternoon into this evening, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. A transition from rain to snow progresses eastward late tonight into early Friday morning, with dry weather likely by late Friday morning. Due to the late arrival of the snow transition, Lake MI counties are unlikely to observe any measurable accumulation from the snow, though areas near and west of Madison may easily observe trace to 2 inch accumulations, with locally higher totals to 3+ inches possible in this same area (if any briefly organized snow bands manage to form). This will be a wet and slushy snowfall, perhaps more of a rain/snow mix towards the shoreline. Shoreline air temperatures may remain right at or 2 degrees above freezing (for the overnight low temp), further limiting accumulation potential.

Gusty NW winds arrive as the snow exits late Friday morning, gradually subsiding into Friday night.

Sheppard

LONG TERM

Issued 1220 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Saturday through Wednesday:

A weak surface pressure trough is expected to linger in the wake of Thursday's / Friday's departed low pressure, oriented from northern WI to central lower MI. As this feature sags south later Saturday into Sunday, it will interact with a passing upper trough to produce some chances for light snow (esp Saturday night into Sunday morning). A northwest breeze is expected Saturday through Monday as arctic high pressure builds southward toward the Dakotas / MN, leading to seasonal-normal cool weather in our region. Predominantly dry and quiet weather looking likely early next week. Temperatures begin a slight upward trend into Tuesday as southerly flow develops ahead of the next system.

Models currently favor a clipper system developing over Montana early Tuesday and tracking eastward across our region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Both ECMWF and GFS develop a considerably deep low pressure and track it eastward, but there remains some disagreement as to whether it will pass overhead or north of our region. As such, it could produce either rain and above normal temperatures, or light snow and closer to normal temperatures. Either way, the system should progress eastward fast enough to put a limit on QPF (GEFS total QPF plumes are predominantly flat-lined thru Wednesday, with better potential for precip Thursday and beyond).

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 1220 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Dry weather and VFR continue through early this afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight and this morning, turning northeast into this afternoon. Scattered high clouds continue to move through the region at times, increasing in coverage later today.

Rain is expected to arrive late this afternoon into this evening, along with gradually declining cloud ceilings (likely MVFR or Fuel Alt MVFR by late this evening, with IFR possible later tonight). A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Later tonight into Friday morning, a west to east transition from rain to snow is expected. Some light accumulations are possible, especially for the western half of the region. Sharp dropouts in visibility due to the falling snow will also be possible.

Sheppard

MARINE

Issued 1220 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Gusty east winds continue overnight across the northern tip of Lake Michigan as low pressure around 29.5 inches over northern WI occludes and weakens. A light southwesterly breeze continues over the rest of the lake. Light and variable winds this morning turn northeast and accelerate this afternoon.

Winds will increase tonight into Friday night as another strong low pressure system around 29.2 inches tracks from Iowa into central Wisconsin. That low will cross central Lake Michigan Friday morning and gradually weaken through Saturday. A few gale force gusts are possible during the low's passage, with trends being monitored for possible headlines in coming forecasts. Gusty northerly winds are expected Sunday into Monday as arctic high pressure builds southward into the Dakotas.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.