textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers (60-90+ percent) is forecast tonight.

- An active weather pattern returns late this weekend into next week. Warm and humid conditions and more showers and storms are expected. Severe storms will be possible.

SHORT TERM

Issued 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Tonight through Saturday:

This evening expect a warm front to lift north into the area based from a weak low pressure developing in lee of the Rockies into the central Plains. A shortwave aloft, strong WAA on the nose of the LLJ in the low to mid levels with a moist column suggest a very high chance for precip this evening with a slug of rain expected. The best chances (90+%) will be for the southern portions of the CWA with slightly lesser chances toward central WI. Thunder looks unlikely given the profiles suggesting very limited instability but we cannot rule out a rumble of thunder, especially if the warm front lifts any farther north than currently expected. PWATs across the CWA will range from 0.75-1 in. and precip amounts appear likely to be in the 0.2 range toward central portions of WI but between 0.75 and 1 inch toward the WI/IL border. Precip will generally push out sometime Friday morning as high pressure nudges in from the northwest, shoving the front back to the south. Friday during the day CAMs suggest a chance for a few scattered showers primarily near the lake associated with an area of low level moisture with perhaps a bit of WAA around 850mb providing enough forcing to bring some scattered shower activity.

High pressure will continue to push east but will strengthen into the central Great Lakes region Friday night keeping us dry through most of the day Saturday. East wind off the lake from the high pressure will keep us fairly cool, however.

Later during the day Saturday we will start to see the next system start to push in as a low develops over the north central US. Precip may begin to push in by the late afternoon.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Saturday night through Thursday:

High uncertainty remains in the extended period as southerly low level flow will continue Saturday night through at least Tuesday per latest models. This will bring warmer temperatures during this period with highs likely reach the 70s Sunday through Tuesday possibly even into Wednesday, though far more uncertain. Additionally, expect periods of warm advection aloft and increasing moisture as a couple of shortwaves roll through. This will bring multiple rounds of shower/storm chances Sat night through Monday. Uncertainty in the timing of shortwave activity remains high but any activity would likely include storm chances given likely instability being plentiful during this period. The question then becomes what the chances will be for severe storms, particularly Monday and Tuesday bringing the best chances at this time. The environmental factors that lead to severe weather appear to be favorable but a big complicating factor is always timing. In any case, forecast CWASP values are fairly high for Mon and Tue with decent deep layer shear, both of with in addition to instability suggests the potential for severe weather. Depending on the model, this could linger into Wednesday before the front comes through, which would allow for an additional day of severe weather potential.

Kept precip chances through Wednesday as the latest period to which the low exits, with cooler temps arriving on the back side of the low for mid to late week.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Quiet through the afternoon with modest west winds and mostly clear skies. However, late this afternoon into Friday morning a system will push in that will bring moderate rain showers to much of southern WI with likely MVFR/IFR CIGS expected with even some LIFR in southeast WI. Some impacts to VSBYs with the rain showers is to be expected but VSBYs. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder with this either. Skies will generally clear from the northwest Friday but some light precip may develop near the lake during the day. This will keep some MVFR CIGS persisting into the day before clouds begin to lift to VFR later in the day. VFR conditions return by late Friday afternoon for all of southern WI but likely by early afternoon for most of the western half of the state.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Low pressure around 29.6 inches has pushed east of St James Bay this afternoon with high pressure of 30. inches building in over the lake. Rain and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder possible over the south half of the lake tonight as a warm front lifts into the southern half of the lake with a weak low pressure region developing south of the lake. Winds will remain more northerly across the lake but fairly light. High pressure will push this system back south and build in over the eastern Great Lakes region to around 30.4 inches. Overall light and variable winds will continue through much of Saturday before breezy southerly winds return late weekend through as late as mid next week.

Southerly gales are possible over the north half Sunday into Monday morning with periods early to mid next week featuring chances for storms, possibly some storms being strong.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.