textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remaining 5 to 15 or more degrees above normal through the middle of next week.

- Patchy fog may occur later tonight into early Saturday morning north of Madison and Milwaukee. A few slick spots are possible in this area. - Increasing rain chances (30 to 70 percent chances) arrive late Tuesday through Wednesday. Some thunder is possible.

- Chances (around 30 percent) for more mixed precipitation Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

There may be patchy fog that develops later tonight into early Saturday morning north of Madison and Milwaukee, with calm winds helping set up an inversion just above the surface. There is uncertainty with how much fog will occur, as forecast soundings are showing very dry air just above the inversion. Also, not expecting higher dew points to push into the area during this period. Lows will drop into the middle to upper 20s for most of the area later tonight.

So, left patchy fog mention to areas north of Madison and Milwaukee for now. A few slick spots are possible, if fog does develop in low lying areas where temperatures drop the most. Think this risk will be too limited to warrant additional messaging at this time.

Some middle to high clouds will push across the area Saturday into early Saturday evening, as the low well to the south moves east. TThereis a surface trough that approaches the area later Saturday night, though it looks to remain dry.

Temperatures will remain quite mild during this period, with highs Saturday in the lower to middle 50s in southwest parts of the area, and 40s elsewhere, coolest along the lake with onshore winds. Lows Saturday night should remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Sunday through Friday:

The surface trough should move east across the area Sunday, with the dry air limiting any precipitation. Another mild day is expected with highs into the middle 50s for most of the southwest half of the forecast area. 40s to around 50 are expected to the north and east.

The warmest day should be Monday, as warm air advection develops Sunday night into Monday and brings increasing southwest winds to the area. This should result in highs well into the 50s and perhaps touching 60 degrees in southern and western parts of the area. There is above average confidence in these warm temperatures Sunday into Monday, as temperature spreads on the NBM are very small.

Record highs may be approached at Madison (56 degrees F) and perhaps Milwaukee (57 degrees F). Any snow pack that may be left should be melted by later on Monday.

A more active weather period then may occur for the rest of next week. One low pressure system may push east through the region Tuesday into Wednesday, with a swath of rain moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There may be some thunder that occurs during this time, with forecast soundings bringing weak elevated CAPE. Kept 30 to 70 percent chances for precipitation going for this period, with ensembles showing most members with some measurable precipitation during this time.

Another low may move through the region later in the week, in the Thursday to Friday period. This low may have a more southerly track than the first one, and may keep the area on the cold side of this system. Thus, mixed precipitation with rain and wet snow may occur. Ensembles are more robust with member QPF during this period than the earlier week low. This system may have potential impacts if this scenario plays out, so will keep an eye on how this system evolves over the coming days.

Ensembles suggest mild temperatures may linger into Wednesday, before trending more toward seasonal normals later in the week.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Southwest winds may be gusty at times for terminals near Lake Michigan this afternoon. Otherwise, light southwest winds are expected. These winds will become calm tonight into early Saturday morning, before becoming south later on Saturday. Southeast winds are expected Saturday afternoon for terminals near Lake Michigan.

There may be patchy fog that develops later tonight into early Saturday morning north of Madison and Milwaukee. There is uncertainty with how much fog will occur. For now, kept fog mention with around 4 mile visibility at Sheboygan during this time.

A few high clouds may move through into early evening. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight into early Saturday. Any low clouds should remain well north of the area. Some middle to high clouds will push across the area Saturday into early Saturday evening.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Southwest winds should linger into early evening, as low pressure around 29.7 inches moves east across central Quebec. Winds will weaken and become light and variable by later tonight into Saturday, as high pressure around 30.2 inches moves through the region. Winds will become south to southeast Saturday, then southwest Saturday night ahead of a weak cold front. The front will move across the open waters Sunday morning, bringing a brief west to northwest wind shift Sunday afternoon. Winds will shift back to the south southwest Sunday night into Monday.

Strong low pressure around 29.3 inches will develop over the north central Great Plains Tuesday, resulting in increasing easterly winds. Winds will increase and become gusty Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the low approaches and eventually moves across Lake Michigan. The low will weaken east of the lake Wednesday afternoon and night, with gusty east to northeast winds lingering. A few gale force gusts are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Another low around 29.6 inches moving northeast through the Great Lakes region later next week may bring another round of gusty winds to Lake Michigan.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.