textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures remaining 10-20+ degrees above normal through Wednesday

- Widespread round of rain (~50-80+% chances) expected Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A few thunderstorms are possible later Tuesday night.

- More precip expected Thursday afternoon into Friday, with rain gradually switching over to light snow

- Temperatures trending back toward normal by the weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The Rest of Tonight through Monday Night:

Even milder conditions are likely today as southerly low level flow develops behind departing high pressure and ahead of an approaching trough and associated cold front. Latest models suggest the front will not get into the northern half of the forecast area until late afternoon and the south by mid- evening. This frontal timing will allow for well above temps across the forecast area, with most places likely to hit 60. Moisture looks limited as the front drops southward through the area, so kept the forecast dry. The milder airmass and a fair amount of clouds tonight should keep lows above freezing across the forecast area.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

Cooler temps are likely during the day Tuesday on the back side of the cold front, particularly across the northeast half of the forecast area. Easterly winds across southern Wisconsin will help keep it coolest near the lake. The frontal boundary will then lift back into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, as strong low pressure moves from the Northern Plains into Wisconsin. Increasing moisture along with decent forcing ahead of the low will likely result in a round of rain Tue evening into early Wednesday morning. A rumble or two of thunder still looks possible given the expected surface low track passing by just to the northwest of the forecast area.

The remainder of Wednesday through the day Thursday is looking mainly dry between low pressure systems. Another low is then expected to push through the area Thursday night into Friday, bringing more precip chances to southern Wisconsin. The overall picture among models currently suggests the this will be a rain transitioning to snow setup, with the surface low tracking over or just to the south of the forecast area. There is still a decent spread among models with the low track and strength, so plenty of time for the details to change. Dry weather and colder conditons are then expected to move in for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Mid and high level clouds will be likely at times tonight into Monday night as low pressure and an associated front move through the region. Not out of the question for a few sprinkles mainly north of I-94 on Monday, but otherwise dry weather is expected through Monday night.

The low level jet will lean into the forecast area from the west later tonight into Monday morning as the shortwave approaches, with a period of low level wind shear likely. Light southerly surface winds will develop later tonight, with increasing southwest winds then expected Monday morning. Gusts to 25 knots are expected late this morning into the afternoon, particularly across the southeast half of the forecast area. Wouldn't be surprised by a gust or two to 30 knots in the southeast. Winds will become northwest and lighter behind the cold front late Monday afternoon into the evening, with light and variable winds then expected overnight.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Southerly winds will continue to develop tonight into Monday ahead of an approaching low and front, with the low of 29.8 inches moving through the northern lake during the day Monday. Northerly winds Monday night behind the front will become easterly Tuesday morning ahead of the next approaching low pressure system.

East to southeast winds will increase later Tuesday into Tuesday night as the stronger low draws near, with winds to around 30 knots possible. A few gales could be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, depending on the strength of the low, though the warmer airmass over the chilly lake waters will limit mixing down of higher gusts most places. The best chance for any gales will be across northern portions of the lake. After somewhat lighter winds later Wednesday into Thursday, winds will likely increase Thursday night into Friday as another low moves through the region.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today for gusty southwest to west winds. There is high confidence that another Small Craft Advisory will eventually be needed for the nearshore waters from Tuesday evening through the day Wednesday, given the elevated onshore winds and building waves.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM Monday to 6 PM Monday.