textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A Moderate Swim Risk is forecast late this afternoon and evening for Lake MI beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties.

- A backdoor cold front Wednesday will bring gusty northeast winds behind it near the lake and much cooler temperatures. This front will also bring chances for showers and storms (around 20 to 50 percent) Wednesday afternoon/early evening.

- Dry for later this week into the weekend with above normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Tonight we will start to move into an upper level ridge setup which will bring us very warm temperatures for Tuesday with modest to breezy southwest flow on the backside of the surface high. There will likely be some precip in the midwest region, primarily focused along a warm front to the north, especially as we move into Tuesday night as a developing high over the UP in connection with a more pronounced high in central Canada will turn the warm front into a southward moving backdoor cold front.

This backdoor cold front appears likely to be strong (pneumonia front like in terms of impact?) rapidly pushing down the lake into Wednesday. Models may not even be capturing how quickly this may occur on Wednesday. While it should be expected to warm up a bit ahead of this front if it comes through early enough the warming may not be as substantial. In either case, we could see quite a significant temperature drop behind the front. The other piece of this is that depending on timing, this front could trigger showers/storms during the day Wednesday. The issue with precip chances is that the only forcing will be from the front with no lift elsewhere given being in the base of the ridge. The precip chances have increased for this period however, given the strength of the front and enough low level moisture to work with to bring about precip. Any storms with this would be largely weak given the limited shear with the ridge overhead but enough instability could allow for some briefly strong storms likely quickly becoming outflow dominant. Showers/storms may linger into the evening before the front clears out as we lose instability into the evening.

A period of moderate swim risk conditions expected later this afternoon through the evening primarily for Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties with a risk for high swim risk conditions Wednesday late afternoon through Wednesday night for all nearshore counties.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Thursday through Monday:

Thursday and Friday remain in the same underlying pattern with large scale ridging overhead and surface high pressure generally overhead. Thursday has trended cooler due to the front coming through Wednesday and Friday has trended toward producing another backdoor cold front which is a bit uncertain still and depends on progression of the surface high. This may introduce some precip chances, though chances are uncertain at this time. Into the weekend while the upper levels become potential more active, though uncertain, the lack of moisture and the likelihood of high pressure over the western Great Lakes suggests it will likely remain dry through the weekend and likely into early next week.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period with SCT to BKN mid to upper level CIGS ongoing with pockets of showers possible, primarily further west. Expect clearing toward the evening and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies through Tuesday. Some additional developing clouds to the north Tuesday night sagging south into Wednesday with a backdoor cold front expected Wednesday. This front may bring some showers and storms as well as a stark wind shift from light and variable to modest to breezy from the northeast. No MVFR CIGS expected with the expected cloud cover at this time.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

High pressure around 30.2 inches will continue to drift east to the eastern Great Lakes today. Fog has largely dissipated across the lake. Modest southerly winds will continue tonight into Tuesday, while high pressure around 30.3 inches is expected to build toward eastern Hudson Bay Tuesday into Wednesday. This will eventually move a cold front southward over Lake Michigan for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds will shift northeasterly behind the front. Another potential cold front sliding down the lake possible Friday.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.