textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder with 5-15F above normal temps trend continues Friday into early next week for much of southern WI.

- Mainly dry conditions through the weekend with 30-60% chances for precip (mainly rain but cannot rule out some wintry mix) returning late Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1249 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

Lingering influence from the departing high pressure will continue this afternoon and evening. Expect light and variable winds along with overnight lows dipping into the mid 20s to lower 30s as clouds are expected to clear out through the evening. Southerly flow will gradually increase on the backside of the high into Friday and will see temps begin to warm up for Friday. Still looking at above normal temps with highs rising into the mid to upper 40s and continue to see a potential (12z HREF and NBM with 20-50% chance), especially for southwesterly WI to crack 50F Friday afternoon. However, GEFS and EPS ensemble are not as enthusiastic about seeing high temps reaching the 50F, but still cannot rule it out. Clear and calm conditions are expected again overnight Friday with temps similar if not a degree or two milder than the previous night.

Wagner

LONG TERM

Issued 1249 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

The above normal temps are expected to continue through the weekend as the Upper Midwest sits along the ridges axis of the upper-level flow. Sunday may be slightly cooler as models prog the trough trekking across the lower Mississippi River Valley to dampen the upper-levl ridge slightly, but overall a mild trend is in store for our neck of the woods. This WAA pattern across southern WI will bring widespread 40s and medium-high potential (40-90%) to see daily high temps of 50F or higher each day Saturday into Monday for much of our CWA, especially the southwestern and southerly portions. Milder, above normal temps will also translate to overnight lows through the weekend with near to above freezing temps most nights.

Continue to see the pattern break down into early next week as the ridge shifts eastward and a broad upper-level trough working its way across the Central CONUS. Overall, the amplitude of this trough is slightly less amplified than previous runs, but still expected to bring a change in pattern to the region. While the run-to-run variance in the models continues, the latest trend is tracking the associated surface feature further south that prior day runs and if this trend persists may keep southern WI on the cooler side of this system. Thus there will be increased PoP chances, but milder temps make keep the precip mostly in the form of rain may result more in more wintry precip than with a milder pattern. Additional there are hints of another system to bring increased PoP chance toward the later half of the week as well. Again still plenty of time for the next week systems to shift and change, but continue to monitor for how it evolves through the weekend.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 1249 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure continues to work its way east tonight into Friday. Light and variable winds continue overnight, but will begin to shift more southwesterly and gradually pick up into Friday morning as the high pressure skirts further east up the Ohio River Valley.

Wagner

MARINE

Issued 1249 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

High pressure will continue to influence winds over Lake Michigan for the rest of today into Friday. Lighter and more variable winds will then gradually turn more southwesterly and pick up into Friday as the center of the high shift further east. Will see prevailing south-southwesterly across the Lake through the weekend and into the start of next week. Then looking at winds to pick up through the middle of next week as a system tracks from the Plains and into the Great Lakes region. Likely to see small craft conditions develop over the southern WI nearshore waters while potentially seeing a few gale force gusts at times over the open waters into the end of next week.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.