textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder today and Saturday before 70s return Sunday and into next week.

- An active weather pattern returns late this weekend into next week. Warm and humid conditions and more showers and storms are expected. Severe storms will be possible, especially for Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

Quiet conditions return today with gradually clearing skies from the west. Clouds may linger in the east for a bit as a wave of 850mb moisture swings through the region. Clear skies for the overnight period as high pressure sits overhead into the day Saturday the high will push out to the west with increasing precip chances through the day. There remains uncertainty among models for exactly when to expect precip to push in but most models keep us dry through at least the morning.

Into the afternoon, chances will increase as low to midlevel moisture swings into the western CWA with increasing WAA as a LLJ nudges into the area, especially into the evening. Most of the precip is expected across northern WI with best chances across the northern half of the CWA for precip. Some thunder should be expected Saturday night given some instability in models, though the best instability will likely be to the north and west with the better precip chances. Some moderate to heavy rain is possible primarily with storms and given some PWATs pushing in around 1.25 inches. Some heavier rains could be seen though the general trend in models are suggestive of 1+ inch rain but likely the better chances remaining north of the area at this time.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Sunday through Saturday:

Available CAMs, as well as the global models are suggestive of a drier period come Sunday morning. Not every model shows this but it brings lesser chances overall and models have generally trended drier for this period, especially for southeastern parts of the state. A few scattered showers storms would remain possible for this period. Then later Sunday into Sunday night we will see a shortwave track through with plenty of moisture and some additional WAA from the LLJ over the area. While storms may accompany this precip with some instability in the area this precip is well out ahead of the front associated with the low and is also well out ahead of best instability further west with very poor lapse rates in our CWA. Generally the RRFS is suggestive of a shield of precip with embedded storms with the appearance of a non- severe convective mode. The primary thing to watch for is a low CAPE, higher shear type event given the likelihood of an area of 40+ kt deep layer shear in a fairly high SRH situation.

Into Monday, models have trended largely dry during the day and possibly even through Monday night. A strong inversion aloft with limited forcing over southern WI may limit convective potential at this time. northern and central parts of WI will see better potential into the late afternoon/early evening for storms given a much weaker inversion, closer to the warm front that may yield better convective potential. Based on the global models, if we can manage storms they would likely be elevated bringing primarily a hail risk. However, if models are currently overstating the strength of the inversion or position of the low in reference to the position of the warm front then severe weather becomes a significant risk. The longer range output of the RRFS exemplifies this potential risk should the warm front set up further south than the global models suggest with the inversion being of a lesser concern. All hazards would be possible in this scenario. The set up for this warm front appears likely to fall somewhere between northern and central WI.

Tuesday appears to be the most likely severe weather day given the surface low swinging through WI with higher instability of 1500J/kg or more with high end deep layer shear of 45-55kts. In addition, CWASP will be quite high and given 0-1km shear around 30 kts with SRH likely over 200m2/s2 based on the current forecast. We also look likely to be surface based with capping initially but likely eroding by the late afternoon especially as the front pushes through. Plenty of uncertainty still to be worked out as the impacts for us specifically will be dependent on the convective mode which can still change this far out.

Wednesday, most models have everything pushing out for Wednesday with the front but the EC really holds the surface low back with a slower track of the upper level shortwave. If the EC were to be on the right track it would likely bring a better risk for severe storms on Wednesday than even Tuesday as the best ingredients for severe weather would be held back a day.

It becomes a bit of a cluster beyond midweek as temperatures and flow remain favorable for warm temperatures, instability and the potential additional impactful systems. Specifically, next Friday and even next Saturday may provide us with additional storms and severe weather potential. Next week is shaping up to be a very active week of weather for southern WI.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

MVFR CIGS have largely risen to VFR as drier air from the northwest pushes in this afternoon. Some lingering MVFR CIGS in the far southeast may continue for the next few hours before those raise and then likely dissipate from the northwest by the early evening. Clear skies expected for much of the tonight period with light and variable winds. Into Saturday, expect clouds to increase over the course of the day with MVFR/IFR CIGS not likely to push in to the west until the late afternoon and early evening. These will overspread southern WI over the course of the night perhaps remaining VFR in the far southeast. This will be coincident with rain and perhaps some thunderstorms during the overnight period. While CIGS may remain low into the day Sunday there should be a period of drier conditions at least across southeast WI with better rain/storm chances toward central WI

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

High pressure around 30.4 inches will build over the western Great Lakes Region tonight into Saturday morning, causing winds to become light and variable. Southeast winds return Saturday afternoon and become gusty Saturday night as a sharper pressure gradient moves over the lake as low pressure moves into the northern Great Plains.

Low pressure will shift into the northern Great Plains during the day Sunday as it deepens to near 29.4 inches. The low will quickly shift east toward Lake Superior Sunday night, reaching the southern shores of the Hudson Bay by daybreak Monday morning. Winds will thus increase further across the open waters Sunday through Sunday night. Will be monitoring for gale potential during this time frame, particularly over the northern half of Lake Michigan. The need for headlines for the open and nearshore waters will continue to be evaluated as this portion of the period approaches with a Small Craft likely being needed by Sunday morning. Winds will weaken Monday morning as 30.0 inch high pressure moves across Ontario.

Passing low pressure systems will lead to persistently active conditions across Lake Michigan Saturday afternoon into next week, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast. Will need to monitor thunderstorm development during the Monday- Wednesday time period, as some storms could become strong to severe.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.