textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief burst of snow showers this afternoon with a cold frontal passage. This will likely affect the late afternoon and early evening commute. Some slick spots on roads may occur in the evening as temperatures drop below freezing.

- Snow chances continue to drop Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with the track of low pressure trending farther to the south.

- Warm and breezy conditions expected for Friday.

UPDATE

Issued 545 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Things largely remain on track for the quick hitting snow event this afternoon along a surface cold front. Perhaps models have delayed the arrival by a little but for the most part this will likely play out as expected with a 1-3 hour period of snow (heaviest in east central WI) that could bring as much as an inch further north with lighter accumulations to the south and west. Otherwise expect breezy southwest winds today with temperatures possibly reaching the upper 30s, which could allow for some of the snow to be mixy(rain/snow) in nature.

Kuroski

SHORT TERM

Issued 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Overnight through Wednesday:

Middle to high clouds will push southeast through the area overnight into Tuesday morning, with light winds becoming south by daybreak. The pressure gradient will increase on Tuesday, with gusty south winds in the morning developing and becoming southwest in the afternoon. Warm air advection with these winds should bring highs into the middle to upper 30s.

There should be a brief burst of snow showers that pushes southeast through the area with the cold front in the afternoon, with good differential CVA from a passing shortwave trough and low to mid-level frontogenesis response with the front. A short one to two hour window of snow showers in any one location is anticipated as the front moves through the area. The better moisture and upward motion in north/northeast parts of the area should bring the highest snowfall amounts of one half to under one inch, with lower amounts to the southwest.

This should affect the late afternoon and early evening commute, so will continue to message this. There may be moisture that freezes on roads into the evening after the snowfall ends, which may bring some slick spots.

Skies should clear out Tuesday night into Wednesday, as high pressure to the west moves into the region. Temperatures should be more in the typical range for this time of year.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Wednesday night through Monday:

Ensembles and deterministic models have generally been taking low pressure and an associated 500 mb shortwave trough Wednesday night into Thursday further to the south of the area over the past day or two. The NAM is much further north with its low track and QPF field than the other deterministic models and seems too far north. Given the southward trend, the banded snow potential with mid-level frontogenesis response should remain in northern Illinois as well.

Ensemble members have trended drier with measurable QPF in southern portions of the area during this period, and it is possible that the area may ultimately remain dry. For now, may keep 20 to 30 percent chances for light snow in the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly in southwestern portions of the area.

Ensembles continue to agree on a good warmup for Friday, as south to southwest winds bring strong warm air advection into the area. Highs should climb well above normal for Friday with the gusty winds.

A strong cold front then should shift southeast through the area Friday evening, with steady cold air advection on north to northeast winds over the weekend. There remains some chances (20 to 30 percent) for snow Saturday, if some differential CVA can work through the area with moisture. Ensemble members look to have more dryness than measurable QPF, so uncertainty remains if this period will see any precipitation.

Strong high pressure should shift southeast across the region later in the weekend into Monday. This should bring a return to more seasonable temperatures and relatively dry conditions.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 545 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Fairly quiet this morning but as a front approaches we will see increasing potential impacts for aviation. This quick hitting event may bring a 1 to 3 hour period of light snow perhaps impacting VSBYS and will likely accumulate for parts of the area with up to an inch toward east central WI. Limited impacts from CIGS for the most part outside of a period this evening and overnight in east central WI which could see a period of MVFR CIGS. Cannot rule out lower CIGS as the front pushes through but models are not sold on that at this time but remains a possibility. Otherwise VFR conditions return following thr frontal passage outside of the MVFR CIG potential in east central WI but even that is anticipated to end late tonight.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Light winds are expected overnight across Lake Michigan, as high pressure around 30.4 inches moves east across the region.

South gales are then expected to develop late Tuesday morning and become southwest in the afternoon for all of Lake Michigan. A Gale Warning is in effect for this time period. The gales will develop as strengthening low pressure around 29.3 inches tracks from northern Minnesota Tuesday through the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through middle morning on Wednesday for the nearshore waters, for gusty winds and building waves.

Winds will shift more west northwest behind the low and associated cold front for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds will remain brisk but under gale force. High pressure around 30.1 inches will then move into the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing lighter winds. Gusty south to southwest winds are then anticipated for Friday.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 AM Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Wednesday.