textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for all of southern Wisconsin until 10 AM CST today. Expect wind chill values from -20F to -30F this morning. Wind chills will then remain in the single digit to teens below zero this afternoon and tonight. - Above average temperatures develop Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.

- The next chances for precipitation (50 to 60 percent) develop late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With temperatures near to above freezing, much of this precipitation is expected to be rain.

SHORT TERM

Issued 400 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Today through Monday:

Wind chill temps this morning are in the 20 below range throughout srn WI and the Cold Wx Advisory is on track to expire at 10 AM CST. 1040 mb high pressure over IA will track to central IL by 00Z then shift into the Ohio Valley tnt. Farther to the north a wave of low pressure will track across Ontario into Quebec for late tnt-Mon. This will bring brisk swly winds and warm advection to srn WI and the Great Lakes on Mon. After another cold night, temps will warm into the 20s on Mon. A trailing cold front from the low to the north will then dissipate before reaching srn WI with a weak sfc ridge expected Mon nt. Radiational cooling could drop the temps back into the single digits.

A deepening sfc low will then move from Manitoba across Ontario into nrn Quebec for Tue-Tue nt. Strong warm advection on breezy swly winds are forecast with temps warming above freezing for Tue afternoon. No precipitation is forecast.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 400 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Wednesday through Saturday:

The next noteworthy chance for precip is expected to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday, courtesy of a passing low pressure system. The expected track runs along the CONUS/Canada borderline Wednesday, then across Lake Superior into Thursday. Strong WAA ahead of the associated cold front will force some light stratiform precip overspreading the region west to east Wednesday night, followed by the arrival of the cold front into Thursday morning with moderate to briefly heavy precip along it (perhaps a few tenths of an inch to nearly an inch liquid total), followed by light post frontal precip into Thursday afternoon / evening. The track of this system strongly suggests a 'nearly all rain' event, though the existing snow pack will keep antecedent temperatures cool enough that even slight variations in the system track will have to be watched. The very light post frontal precipitation may come in the form of flurries late Thursday afternoon depending on how things shake out. Another thing we'll be keeping an eye on is pavement temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday. Our best guess for 2-meter air temperatures during the steadier rainfall, however, is in the mid to upper 30s.

Predominantly dry weather is then expected from Thursday night onwards, though models do resolve a clipper system passing north of the region Friday night into Saturday (hence ~15% precip chances). Cold temperatures (around single digits above zero) briefly return Thursday night behind the cold front, but WAA south of the passing clipper system allows temperatures to rebound into Saturday.

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 400 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions today and Monday but LLWS will develop late tonight and Mon AM via a swly low level jet stream of 50 kt.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 400 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Brisk northwest winds and heavy freezing spray will continue across the open waters of Lake MI this morning. Winds will then gradually ease this afternoon and evening as a ridge of high pressure moves across the lake. Low pressure then enters Hudson Bay as high pressure exits across the Ohio Valley, bringing brisk southwest winds late tonight into Monday. A Gale Warning is now in effect for this time frame. A brief period of lighter winds develop Monday night, but low pressure around 29.2 inches develops and progresses eastward across southern Canada into Tuesday, bringing an additional round of brisk southwest winds and gale potential, especially across the northern half. Winds diminish into Wednesday as low pressure exits, but become gusty and southwesterly again Thursday as an additional low pressure system progresses across the northern Plains.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056- WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065- WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 10 AM Sunday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM Monday to noon Monday.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 9 AM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until noon Sunday.