textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Around 20 percent chances for light lake effect snow showers or flurries for the lake counties into the middle morning hours. - Gradually warming trend with periodic precipitation chances through the end of next week.

UPDATE

Issued 542 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Radar is showing a narrow band of light reflectivity extending northeast of Sheboygan across the central portions of Lake Michigan, with another area of very light reflectivity pushing onshore from Milwaukee southward. There may be flurries or very light snow showers that occur with this activity as it shifts southward near the shoreline over the next several hours.

Not expecting much more than a quick dusting or a few tenths of an inch at worst, and it's possible that most of this area remains dry. Forecast soundings are not showing much in the way of moisture in the low levels, which will limit accumulations. This activity should shift out of the area around midday.

There are also stubborn middle clouds that continue across northern portions of the area and to the west. These clouds may linger into the morning hours, though they should start to scatter out by midday or into the afternoon. After a chilly start, highs should rise into the upper 20s northeast to the lower 30s southwest.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 1035 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Tonight through Wednesday:

Weak cold advection, AVA, and subsidence will eventually lead to partial clearing tnt although lake effect clouds via nely flow should maintain cloudy conditions over said region. Delta T of 15-17C will eventually develop but the airmass will become increasingly drier with PWATs falling below 0.20 inches. Fcst soundings only show a low potential for measurable lake effect snow for Sun AM. Will continue 20-30 percent chances for lake effect snow over far ern WI tnt-Sun AM.

Otherwise high pressure around 1037 mb will track from the nrn Great Lakes to the lower Great Lakes for Sun-Sun nt. Some mid level cloud cover may occur Sun nt-Mon via mid level warm advection but no precipitation is forecast. Temps will remain below normal for Sun but will rise above normal on Mon as lgt ssely winds develop.

For late Mon nt-Tue wnwly flow aloft will become zonal with mid level warm advection ensuing. A warm front will also extend from low pressure over the srn Great Plains to central IL, IN, and Ohio. North of the front, warm, moist advection and PWATs increasing to 0.55-0.75 inches will bring 50-70 percent chances for light rain. For Tue nt-Wed, the Ensemble ECMWF attempts to build high pressure into the area, thereby keeping a frontal boundary and rain chances to the south. However, the GEFS continues to support a shortwave trough approaching from the west and passing Wed nt, while at the sfc, low pressure tracks from ern KS to lower MI. Will stick with the NBM rain chances of 30-50 percent for now.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 1035 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Thursday through Saturday:

The Ens ECMWF remains a slower version of the GEFS for this period. The GEFS shortwave trough and low pressure area that would bring rain to srn WI for Wed-Wed nt occurs with the Ens ECMWF on Thu so will maintain NBM rain chances of 40 percent. Cyclogenesis is then expected over the Great Plains late in the week which will track west and north of the region bringing a period of sly winds and likely rain followed by a cold front. As stated earlier, the evolution is quicker with the GEFS than the Ens ECMWF and will stick with the NBM rain chances of 50-60 percent for Fri-Fri nt. Smaller rain chances then linger into Sat. Well above normal temps are expected for this period.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 542 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Radar is showing a narrow band of light snow showers or flurries extending northeast of Sheboygan across the central portions of Lake Michigan, with another area pushing onshore from Milwaukee southward. These flurries or very light snow showers may occur as they shift southward near the shoreline over the next several hours.

Ceilings around 3000 to 3500 feet AGL are expected with lake effect clouds for the terminals near the lake this morning and early this afternoon. May see a brief visibility reduction to 4 to 6 miles if any snow shower does move onshore.

Not expecting much more than a quick dusting or a few tenths of an inch at worst, and it's possible that most of this area remains dry. There is not much in the way of moisture in the low levels to work with, which will limit accumulations. This activity should shift out of the area around midday.

There are also stubborn middle clouds around 9000 feet AGL that continue across northern portions of the area and to the west. These clouds may linger into the morning hours, though they should start to scatter out by midday or into the afternoon. Light northeast to east winds are expected today.

As high pressure moves east of the area tonight into Monday, quiet weather is expected. Light and variable winds tonight will become south to southeast on Monday. Middle to high clouds will gradually push into the area Monday.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 1035 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Modest north to northeast winds tonight will become light and variable Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as high pressure around 30.7 inches tracks from the northern Great Lakes to the lower Great Lakes. Breezy south winds will then develop on Monday in response to the high shifting east and low pressure moving across far northern Ontario. A weak cold front will then bring a return of light northeast winds by Tuesday afternoon. Waves may reach 4 feet tonight and Sunday morning south of North Point Lighthouse due to persistent northeast winds.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.