textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect from through early Thursday afternoon for a High Swim Risk at beaches in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties.

- Expect a gradual warming trend through the Memorial Day weekend.

- Rain chances (40-70%) return Friday evening and night, with lower chances (10-20%) through the holiday weekend.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1130 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Tonight through Thursday Night:

Mid and high level clouds will persist overnight, with mostly cloudy skies expected Thursday as an area of warm air advection aloft moves through. Despite the forcing from the warm air advection, dry weather is expected tomorrow due to very dry conditions in the lowest 8-10 kft. Not out of the question for a few sprinkles, but most locations will likely remain dry. The clouds will assist in keeping temps below normal Thursday, particularly near Lake Michigan under onshore winds. Lingering clouds and easterly winds are expected Thursday night, with temps a couple degrees milder than tonight.

A high swim risk continues into early Thursday afternoon for Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha counties. Life threatening waves and currents are expected.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 1130 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

Surface low pressure is expected to approach from the southwest Friday, then pass by to the southeast Friday night into early Saturday. This system still looks likely to bring some rain to southern Wisconsin, though there are some uncertainties. One concern is there is a decent spread among models with the track and intensity of the low, with farther south and weaker solutions suggesting lower precip chances for southern Wisconsin. Another concern is the potential for some dry air in the mid- levels, which could also limit overall rain chances. In general though, there remains enough agreement among models to keep 40-70% chances for rain Friday evening/night, with precip winding down early Saturday.

The upcoming holiday weekend looks largely dry, though models do hint at a couple weak shortwaves rolling through at some point. With milder temps and higher dewpoints pushing into the area Sat-Mon, not out of the question to see a few showers and storms if the forcing with the waves is strong enough.

Warm temps and higher dewpoints will persist into mid-week, with some instability as well suggesting the potential for more shower/storm chances if a wave or two pushes through the area.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 1130 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Mid and high level clouds will persist overnight, with mostly cloudy skies expected Thursday as an area of warm air advection aloft moves through. Despite the forcing from the warm air advection, dry weather is expected tomorrow due to very dry conditions in the lowest 8-10 kft. Not out of the question for a few sprinkles, but most locations will likely remain dry. Northeast winds 5-10 knots through tonight will become more easterly on Thursday, except for near Lake Michigan where winds may remain from the northeast.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 1130 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

High pressure of 30.4 inches centered over Lake Superior this evening will will gradually shift eastward through the end of the week. Persistent east to northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected through Friday, with winds becoming northerly on Saturday as low pressure of 29.8 inches lifts northeast into southern Michigan. Winds could increase a bit Friday night into Saturday, depending on the exact track and strength of the low, though winds are likely to stay below gale force. Southerly winds are then expected to develop early next week.

Though waves may briefly subside during the day Thursday, Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist much of the time through Friday night from North Point Light southward. Advisory conditions will likely gradually expand northward Thursday night into Friday. Changes to the ongoing advisory will likely be eventually needed as confidence increases in advisory conditions for later in the week.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM Thursday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644...10 PM Thursday to 10 PM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Friday.