textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with highs in the 60s this weekend; cooler by Lake Michigan due to onshore winds.

- Widespread showers (80-90 percent chance) and scattered thunderstorms return for Monday through Monday night. A few thunderstorms may reach severe levels, with locally heavy rainfall also possible.

SHORT TERM

Issued 135 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

Could see a shower or two in the east this afternoon as a cold front exits, but otherwise expect gradually clearing skies from the west for the rest of the day. Low temps will be closer to normal tonight behind the cold front, with mostly clear skies (at least in the west) and light winds also contributing to the cooler conditions.

Mostly clear skies are likely on Saturday, with increasing high clouds Saturday night. High temps will remain a few degrees above normal tomorrow, aside from cooler conditions near the lake under onshore winds. Near normal lows are expected again Sat night.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 135 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Periods of mid and high level clouds are expected Sunday and Sunday night ahead of approaching low pressure. High temps Sunday will be similar to Saturday, with milder conditions Sunday night due to the cloud cover and southeast winds.

Low pressure is expected to lift from around northwest Minnesota early Monday to roughly northwest Wisconsin by midnight Monday night. The warmer temps, higher dewpoints, and resultant greater instability within the warm sector of this system may sneak into southern Wisconsin by Monday afternoon. A 50 kt LLJ overhead by the afternoon will contribute to sold shear, bringing a potential for strong to severe storms. A lot of questions remain with the severe chances though, as there are still differences with the low track among models. Additionally, a couple models suggest that showers and storms may move through during the morning, which would likely dampen the stronger convective potential in the afternoon and evening. The warm sector could stay mainly south as well, with southeast winds off the chilly waters of Lake Michigan possibly sharpening the surface warm front along or south of the state line. Given the latest models and uncertainties, it's currently looking like areas along/south of I-94 and also away from Lake Michigan would have the greater chance to see a few severe storms.

Will also have to keep an eye on a heavy rainfall threat on Monday, given latest models push the ~1.50" precipitable water values into southern portions of the forecast area. Localized flooding would be a concern given saturated soils and rivers remaining on the high side. Plenty of time for the finer details of the severe storm and flooding chances to change though, given this systems is still 3 days out.

Northwest flow will develop Tuesday behind the departing low and will likely persist through the remainder of the work week. Surface high pressure will bring quiet weather much of this time, though a shortwave or two may bring some light rain chances at times. Temps in this pattern will run near to a few degrees below normal.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 135 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

MVFR ceilings will gradually clear from west to east the rest of the afternoon with mostly clear skies expected overnight into Saturday away from Lake Michigan. Towards the lake, northeast winds may result in some clouds lingering overnight into Monday. There are mixed signals among models with what these cloud bases would be, with brief MVFR conditions not out of the question. Light winds will be variable at times tonight, picking up from the east to southeast across southern Wisconsin Saturday.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 135 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

High pressure of 30.0 inches will build into northern Wisconsin and the western U.P. tonight behind departing low pressure, resulting in northerly winds of 10-20 knots tonight into Saturday. Areas of fog may linger into this evening until the cooler and drier airmass fully moves in behind the low.

East to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots are expected to develop Saturday night into Sunday as the high shifts eastward ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The 29.4 inch low is expected to lift from around northwest Minnesota early Monday to Lake Superior by early Tuesday morning. Winds will increase Monday into Monday night out of the south to southeast ahead of this low. The cooler lake temps should dampen the threat for gales across the lake, with a Small Craft Advisory likely for the nearshore waters. Breezy west to northwest winds will then develop behind the departing low on Tuesday.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.