textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to warm through Thursday, with highs nearing 70 degrees in far southern to southwestern Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Chances (mainly 30 to 50 percent) for precipitation returns to the area for Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible south of the I-94 corridor.

UPDATE

Issued 644 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A mix of mid and high level clouds should help to keep temps from falling as far as they could tonight given light winds and relatively low dewpoints. In general, the forecast look on track for the evening and overnight hours, with no significant update anticipated.

DDV

SHORT TERM

Issued 123 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Southwesterly winds will diminish into mid-afternoon, with continued very dry air across the region. Expecting high temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s, even toward Lake Michigan as southwest winds keep the lake breeze offshore. Late this afternoon as winds diminish, a brief lake breeze may spread inland after high temperatures are reached.

Overnight, winds will diminish to light and southeasterly as high pressure moves into the Northeast U.S. Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s. Even with the southeasterly tilt to the wind direction, continued dry air is expected to filter into the region as Hudson Bay high pressure filters dry northern air into the mean flow. This will allow for continued dry conditions through Wednesday as winds shift back to southwesterly ahead of a weak low pressure system propagating through northern Wisconsin. Southwest winds are expected to become gusty around 20 mph, while RH values dip to near 30% and perhaps even lower. Some fire weather concerns may develop if RH values continue to trend lower. Wind gusts below 30 mph will temper these concerns, but worth continued awareness. A lake breeze may develop during the afternoon hours as winds begin to diminish. High temperatures in the upper 60s are expected in most areas, with a few spots seeing 70 degrees in far southern to southwestern Wisconsin and areas near Lake Michigan seeing highs in the low 60s.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 123 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

Synopsis: West-northwest upper level winds will continue to prevail through the long term period. An absence of any pronounced mid-level disturbances will thus lead to attendant areas of upper divergence and surface frontal passages being the primary forcing mechanisms for precipitation. Two windows for precipitation remain apparent in forecast guidance, with the first moving in on Thursday & the second arriving by next Tuesday. Rain will be the favored in each round of precip, with a few thunderstorms possible along/south of I-94 and US- 18 on Thursday. Widespread hazards are not currently anticipated in any isolated thunderstorm development on Thursday. A sharp cool down remains forecast behind a departing cold front Thursday night into Friday, though temperatures will steadily rebound from the weekend into early next week.

Thursday: The first precip chances of the period arrive along/behind a passing cold front. Thermal profiles will be plenty mild enough through the column to keep precipitation all rain, with precip chances expected to shut off well in advance of arriving chilly temperatures behind the front. Have kept precip probabilities capped at chance (~25-45%) thresholds in the mid-day update, as the development of precipitation will depend on elevated processes ongoing above a capped boundary layer. Guidance generally agrees that said development will be realized during the late morning-early afternoon hours as a wing of 700-500 mb warm advection shifts across southern Wisconsin, though a number of different solutions remain regarding the precise/preferred locations of precip development. Thus anticipate some north-south sharpening of precip probabilities as additional CAM guidance comes into range in the coming forecasts, with likely (~60%+) values becoming necessary as development location(s) clarify. Forecast soundings do depict some weak MUCAPE from late morning into the early afternoon along/south of I-94 and US-18, so have added some slight chance thunder mentions over these areas in the mid-day update. Apart from some lightning or very small hail, severe weather hazards are not expected in any thunderstorm development.

Thursday night through Friday: Continue to expect a brief but noticeable cool down behind Thursday's cold front. Did blend in some cooler temperatures with the NBM Thursday night into Friday given a post-frontal air mass arriving from south-central Canada. Will thus be a chilly start to the day Friday, with early AM wind chills in the mid-upper teens remaining on track in this forecast. Still anticipating high temps in the 5-10 degree below normal range Friday afternoon, with true temperature moderation not occurring until Saturday.

Tuesday: The next precip chances arrive along an approaching surface front & area of upper divergence. Preliminary temperature forecasts suggest that precip will stay all rain, though trends will be monitored as this portion of the period draws closer.

Quigley

AVIATION

Issued 644 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Areas of mid and high level clouds will persist through tonight and into tomorrow, with some clearing possible mid to late afternoon tomorrow. Winds will generally be light (5 kt or less) out of the southeast this evening through tonight, with increasing south to southwest winds expected through the day tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots are likely during the afternoon hours. Winds may stay a bit more southerly from Port Washington to Sheboygan, which may result in somewhat lighter winds due to the influence of the chilly lake.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 123 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

High pressure of 30.4 inches over the Northeast U.S. and high pressure of 30.5 inches pressing into Ontario as low pressure develops in the lee of the central Rockies, keeping winds southwesterly through this evening. Winds will weaken and shift to become south-southeasterly tonight as high pressure builds into the Hudson Bay. Southerly winds then increase into Wednesday, becoming breezy. Weak low pressure of 29.7 inches will progress through the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Wednesday night, shifting winds to southwesterly and allowing them to diminish. Tuesday morning, a cold front from this low will drag southward through the lake. Winds behind the front will become northerly and strong. Gales are becoming more likely Thursday afternoon through Thursday night for the southern two-thirds of the lake. Winds gradually diminish through Friday, with high pressure bringing light and variable winds Friday night. Saturday, southwesterly winds develop again as high pressure sits over the Eastern Seaboard and low pressure develops in the central Plains.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.