textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and breezy conditions are expected Friday

- An east-west oriented, narrow band of accumulating snow is likely somewhere between southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued 545 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Quiet conditions continue with no major changes to the current forecast for today.

Kuroski

SHORT TERM

Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Tonight Through Thursday Night:

Clear skies and light winds allowed for us to quickly decouple in the evening and the temperatures dropped into the single digits in central WI, and teens to lower 20s elsewhere in southern WI. Mid level clouds associated with a weak shortwave crossing IA and IL are spreading into southern WI and preventing a little of the cooling that central WI is seeing.

Light southwesterly winds will develop Thursday afternoon as a weak clipper system tracks across Lake Superior. Warm air advection will help bring the temps in srn WI up to around 40 by late afternoon. The precip associated with this clipper is now expected to remain north of the MKX forecast area, as there will be too much dry air in place here.

Southwest winds will be light Thursday night with lows in the upper 20s.

Cronce

LONG TERM

Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Friday through Thursday:

Southerly flow returns Friday as strong low pressure pivots through southern Manitoba. Plenty of warm air to the southwest will advect into southern Wisconsin, bringing well-above average temperatures back into the region for the day. Temperatures as high as 60 degrees are possible in southeastern portions of the state, while the rest of southern Wisconsin sees temperatures in the 50s. Gusty southwest winds will accompany these higher temperatures, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. A cold front will sweep through the area Friday night, bringing lows in the 20s and northwesterly winds.

Lingering lift from this trailing cold front then looks to interact with a developing low in the Colorado Rockies by way of a strong Arctic high pressing southward from the Canadian Prairies on Saturday. Between all these systems, a narrow band of rapid lift will develop and produce snowfall. Depending on how quickly high pressure sinks southward, this band may sink into Illinois, but at this time modeling is in fair agreement that snow will fall from the I-94 corridor southward (60% chance). Snow will sink southeastward through the course of the afternoon and evening as high pressure builds in and subsidence takes hold. Depending on placement, a narrow area may see several inches of snow, but confidence in exact placement remains low at this time.

Arctic high pressure over the area Saturday night will allow for clearing skies and plenty of radiational cooling underneath a cold airmass. Expect lows in the low teens to upper single digits with light winds keeping wind chills in the single digits above zero. High pressure will continue eastward but remain dominant through Sunday. At the same time, the Colorado low will sink southward and eject into the southern Plains, leading to some slight precipitation chances (~20%) across far southern Wisconsin Sunday night as high pressure exits.

A dynamic pattern continues through early next week. Monday, high pressure over southern Wisconsin will push out any remaining precipitation chances to the southeast, while an additional low pressure system pivots through southern Canada. Into Monday night, winds will shift southwesterly again as a weak frontal boundary moves through. This may lead to some light precipitation across the region, but recent model trends are toward dry conditions. Tuesday, temperatures rise into the low 40s during the morning hours ahead of a cold front, with additional potential for showers along the cold front. High pressure returns Tuesday night into Wednesday, with southeasterly winds developing Wednesday afternoon as low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies again. Model solutions diverge Wednesday night into Thursday due to differences in phasing between the Rocky Mountains low and a shortwave traversing through Canada. Still, precipitation looks to make a return on Thursday. Temperatures will depend on which wave becomes dominant and therefore whether Wisconsin ends up within the warm sector or north of the warm front.

MH

AVIATION

Issued 550 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with modest southwest winds today and periods of clouds but expected to be VFR. Very slight chances for a few hours of lower VFR CIGS near noon but they should be largely scattered by that time. Otherwise winds will pick up into Friday from the WSW to around 25 knots, primarily into the afternoon.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

High pressure of 30.0 inches over the Upper Great Lakes will depart Thursday as a weak clipper of 29.7 inches tracks toward Lake Superior. South to southwest winds will then increase later Thursday afternoon into Friday as low pressure of 29.3 inches over Saskatchewan deepens to 29.1 inches over Ontario. The associated cold front will cross Lake Michigan Friday afternoon and evening. A few gales will be possible across northern portions of the lake later Friday into Friday night behind the front. Breezy northerly winds will continue Saturday between departing low pressure and a strong high approaching from the northwest.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.