textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of snow (dusting to around an inch) overnight tonight into early Friday morning for much of southern WI with more of a wintry mix of snow and light freezing rain/drizzle and a glaze of ice for southwestern WI. Impacts to the Friday AM commute will be possible.

- Another chance (10-30%) for a quick round of snow overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Minimal accumulations expected.

- Milder temps for start of next week with highs trending above normal into midweek.

UPDATE

Issued 602 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The light snow is expected to spread southeast across the area later this evening to after midnight, exiting to the southeast around sunrise on Friday. The main thing to watch will be where the 700 mb frontogenesis response band sets up. This has the potential for snowfall rates greater than one half inch per hour. It may be in a relatively narrow band, oriented northwest to southeast. Will continue to monitor newer models and CAMs to see where this potential is greatest.

The other thing to watch is the light freezing drizzle that is forecast southwest of Madison during this period. Forecast soundings continue to struggle with getting ice crystals to be tapped in this area, though some light snow should still occur at times if it does. This area may shift even further southwest, though may depend on where the frontogenesis band sets up. A light glazing is possible in these areas.

Both of these may affect the early morning commute Friday, as they end from northwest to southeast.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 215 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Tonight and Friday:

Last of the snow has moved out over Lake Michigan early this afternoon. The remainder of the afternoon into the evening will stay dry ahead of the incoming cold front tonight, but temps will remain on the warmer side ranging from mid-20s to lower 30s as low-level WAA builds across the area ahead another clipper overnight.

The overnight clipper will be associated with another mid-level shortwave trough digging down across the Upper Midwest in the upper-level northwesterly flow. Will be plenty of lift associated with this clipper as ample 850mb WAA pairs with the 500mb dCVA and a band of 700mb frontogenesis. Align this forcing with a swath of Pacific moisture where PWATs range from 0.3-0.5 inch, will all contribute to widespread precip chances (60-95%) across southern WI. Main window will be from around 06z across northwestern CWA and spread southeast through daybreak before exiting between 12z-15z. The main challenge for this activity will be precip types and snowfall amounts given a warmer pattern along with location of the heaviest QPF.

Still seeing some run to run variance in the short-term models as QPF have increased and shifted slightly further south from last nights runs. Generally seeing a consensus of a northwest to southeast orientated band across the middle of our CWA. Have leaned more into the 12z HREF with PMM QPF around 0.1" along and northeast of the I-90 corridor, with a few hundredths amounts across the rest of the CWA. However, cannot rule out seeing higher QPF values of >0.1" given the banded and more convective nature of this activity, which lines up more with the HREF LPMM. Again could still this heavier QPF band shift with subsequent model runs into the evening.

The next concern will be the precip type. While the thermal profile is expected to saturate and remain within the DGZ aloft and around freezing near the surface for the northeastern portions of the CWA, areas along and southwest of I-90 corridor will see warmer low-level and surface temps bordering freezing. Thus have higher confidence for snow across northeastern CWA with more of a transition with wetter snow along/just north of I-90 and wintry mix of snow and/or light freezing rain/drizzle for southwestern WI. Given a degree or two difference from the current forecast will make all the difference in precip type and can go either way, especially for southwestern WI. If the light freezing rain potential materializes, expect it to occur in the lighter QPF area with a glaze of ice on elevated and untreated surfaces. So will keep an eye on how things evolve through the evening and if trend favor more freezing rain/drizzle impacts or snow in southwest WI.

Lastly for area where snow is expected amounts may vary given the warmer temps and varying SLR. Based on the latest forecast expect SLR of 8:1 to 11:1 for northeastern CWA with snowfall ranging from half an inch to around an inch. Some locally higher pockets of snow totals of 1 inch or more along with hourly rates exceeding 0.5 in/hr will be possible in any heavier band of QPF aligning with the band of frontogenesis and WAA. Meanwhile the southwestern CWA is expected to see lower SLR below 8:1 and any snow ranging from a dusting to around half an inch.

Overall, much of the area will see wintry precip overnight and may linger into the early morning before exiting from northwest to southeast through daybreak. Travel impacts are expected from any accumulations and may linger into the Friday morning commute, especially for far southeastern WI. Some light flurries may linger behind the main band through the late morning, but the more impactful wintry precip is expected to end by mid- morning.

Cold front will swing through later Friday and drier and colder conditions will push in later Friday.

Wagner

LONG TERM

Issued 215 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Friday night through Thursday:

Friday night into Saturday will be the coldest stretch of the period as high pressure build across the region. Looking at single digit lows overnight and highs only topping off in the upper teens lower 20s for Saturday. Then southerly flow returns to southern WI and will begin warm up through early half of next week. Models and ensembles continue to favor well above normal temp trends for Monday through midweek. NBM continues to ping on highs in the upper 30s and even into the 40s (40-80% chance >40F) Monday into Wednesday. Also cannot rule out seeing southwestern WI even crack into the upper 40s (10-20%).

Outside of a low chance (10-30%) of another clipper overnight Saturday bringing another round of light snow mainly in east- central WI, the extended looks relatively dry through midweek. Long-range models are hinting at a bit more active pattern toward the later half of next week, but not much agreement at this time.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 602 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light snow will move southeast into the area later this evening to soon after midnight, lingering overnight before exiting to the southeast around or a little after sunrise on Friday. Snowfall rates of one quarter to one half inch per hour are anticipated, with a wet, slushy snow character.

Amounts should be an inch or less, though may be higher if a narrow enhanced band of snow develops. Uncertain where this may occur, but if it does, it would be in a northwest to southeast oriented band. Snowfall rates up to three quarters of an inch per hour would be possible in this band.

Light west winds this evening into the overnight hours will shift northwest by 12Z Friday, as a cold front moves southeast through the area. Gusty north to northwest winds are then expected through Friday into Friday evening.

Ceilings around 1500 to 2000 feet AGL this evening should become 600 to 900 feet AGL overnight with the snow, then 1200 to 2000 feet AGL Friday morning after the snow ends. Ceilings should then scatter out gradually in the afternoon and become clear Friday night.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 215 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Southwest winds continue to gradually increase through this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens as low pressure tracks eastward through James Bay region tonight and into Quebec on Friday. This will drag a cold front through the Great Lakes region later this evening and tonight. Moderate westerly winds tonight will increase and turn more northwesterly for Friday behind the front, gradually veering due northward. Gale force gusts up to 40kt are expected, thus have upgraded to a Gale Warning for the open waters from late Friday morning through the evening. Additionally, a period of heavy freezing spray is expected from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning and have issued a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning. Northerly winds gradually weaken through the Saturday as high pressure builds across the region. Southerly winds return with milder temps as the high pressure pushes east for Sunday.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday to midnight Saturday.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366- LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876...10 AM Friday to 3 AM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM Friday to 3 AM Saturday.