textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and windy today and Sunday, with elevated fire weather conditions possible each afternoon.

- Warming up Sunday into early next week, with above normal temperatures expected Monday into Tuesday.

- More active weather is possible Monday night into Tuesday morning, with chances (around 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms. Some hail is possible Monday night.

- There is more uncertainty for thunderstorm and severe weather chances Tuesday afternoon and evening, depending on where the low pressure system tracks and the timing of the low and cold front.

UPDATE

Issued 557 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Strong warm advection aloft will move into the area by this afternoon, though likely only bringing mid and high level clouds to the forecast area. Otherwise, the day will start out mostly sunny with light winds, with increasing clouds and southerly winds in the afternoon. Overall, the forecast looks on track for the upcoming day, with high temps right around normal for late March.

DDV

SHORT TERM

Issued 1142 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Overnight through Monday:

Mostly clear skies are expected overnight into Saturday morning. Lighter northwest winds are expected overnight into early Saturday morning, as high pressure passes by to the southwest of the area.

Warm air advection on Saturday is expected, with increasing south to southwest winds in a tightening pressure gradient. This should bring dry conditions, with some high clouds moving through at times. Forecast soundings show a very dry layer below 8000 feet AGL Saturday, with the gusty low level winds bringing good mixing out potential of dew points.

This should bring very low relative humidity values of 15 to 25 percent over most of the area, lowest in south central Wisconsin. There could be even lower values in south central Wisconsin per the HREF ensemble minimum relative humidity and 10th percentile NBM forecasts. The very low relative humidity values and increasing south to southwest winds may lead to elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon.

Highs should reach the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, with south to south southeast winds in the afternoon near the lake possibly keeping highs in the middle 40s there.

Warm air advection continues Sunday, with gusty south southwest winds and dry low levels per forecast soundings. This should bring another round of elevated fire weather conditions, as dew points mix out and relative humidity values bottom out in the 25 to 32 percent range. They could mix down to 20 to 25 percent in south central Wisconsin. Warmer highs into the middle 60s are forecast, and may rise higher if more sunshine and mixing occurs. These highs may reach to the lakeshore if winds remain offshore until later in the day.

There is more uncertainty for temperatures, dew points and winds for Monday, depending on where the warm front sets up across the region. For now, deterministic models and ensembles seem to want to bring the front northward into and/or through the area Monday. For now, will leave the NBM values as is, which brings warm highs into the middle 70s well inland and 50s to lower 60s near the lake with onshore winds at times. There should be more moisture advection and increasing dew points on Monday, so not anticipating elevated fire weather concerns.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 1142 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Monday night through Friday:

Low pressure is expected to track eastward across Wisconsin at some point Tuesday morning, either over northern Wisconsin (as per the majority of ECMWF/ENS solutions and NAM) or overhead in southern Wisconsin (majority of GEFS solutions). In the warm sector out ahead of this low Monday night, forecast soundings reveal elevated instability (perhaps up to 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE), with around 50 percent chances for rain and nocturnal thunderstorms. The main concern with any stronger storms (if applicable) would be hail given the timing of this system.

There are additional rain chances for southern Wisconsin (50 to 70 percent) into Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening as the associated cold front swings through. The bulk of the thunderstorms and heavier rainfall will likely setup downstream of us (southern Michigan and Indiana) in better alignment with the diurnal heating cycle. There is lots of uncertainty on the exact timing of CAA, hence Tuesday afternoon's temperatures could be anywhere from the lower 70s to around 60 degrees.

Rain chances taper down behind the front Tuesday night, leaving dry weather into Wednesday, as high pressure passes north of the region. Northeasterly flow off Lake Michigan on Wednesday should hold daytime highs to the 40s.

Predictability drops substantially for the later half of the week, with some potential for either a clipper system or Colorado low and additional precipitation chances Thursday and onwards.

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 557 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Mostly clear skies and light winds this morning will be followed by increasing southerly winds and mid to high level clouds this afternoon. Southwest winds will remain moderate this evening and overnight, with periods of mid to high level clouds persisting. Could see a period of low level wind shear tonight as well.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 1142 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Strong high pressure around 30.7 inches will slowly move southeast across southern portions of the lake overnight into Saturday morning, then shifts east southeast of the region in the afternoon.

Gusty north to northwest winds overnight will decrease and become west Saturday morning. Winds will shift southwest to south Saturday afternoon and become gusty once again, as low pressure around 29.6 inches develops in the central High Plains. Gusty southwest winds Saturday night will become south and weaken somewhat on Sunday, as the low remains in the central High Plains.

Winds look to remain just below Small Craft Advisory levels for the nearshore waters this weekend, though waves may build above 4 feet for a time Saturday afternoon and evening north of North Point Lighthouse.

Winds may shift to the north and northeast on Monday, as a warm front sets up to the south of the region. Winds should turn more southerly Monday night into Tuesday for southern portions of the lake, with north to northeast winds to the north. Low pressure around 29.5 inches should move northeast across the lake Tuesday, with winds becoming northwest to north and gusty behind the front later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Monday night into most of the rest of next week for the nearshore waters, as waves build with increasing onshore winds.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.