textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds/some fog dissipating near lakeshore in far southeast Wisconsin into early this evening. More low clouds and fog are possible early Sunday morning in eastern portions of the area.

- Dry weather with highs in the 60s again Sunday, with cooler temps by the lake under onshore winds

- Widespread showers (80 to 100 percent chances) and scattered thunderstorms return for Monday through Monday night. There is the potential for severe weather, with locally heavy rainfall also possible.

- Cooler temps Tuesday through the end of next week, with a frost/freeze potential by the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued 555 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The area of low stratus and some fog near lakeshore in far southeast Wisconsin seems to be dissipating from north to south. This is probably due to the gusty north northeast winds bringing drier air south southwest across the lake and into this area. This trend should continue into early this evening.

There is the potential for more low stratus and fog to develop early Sunday morning for eastern portions of the area. Light winds and lingering low level moisture under the inversion should help support this development. Not sure if fog will be dense, but will monitor trends overnight into early Sunday morning.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Tonight through Sunday night:

Near normal lows are expected again tonight, with mostly clear skies and light winds into at least the evening. Low clouds are lingering over Lake Michigan this afternoon, with a couple models suggesting this cloud deck may expand and advect inland tonight. Thus could see a period of low clouds develop again for the overnight hours into Sunday morning, mainly east of Madison. If this cloud deck does form, it should dissipate by mid-morning Sunday, similar to today.

Otherwise, periods of mid and high level clouds are expected Sunday and Sunday night ahead of approaching low pressure. High temps Sunday will be similar to today (including cooler by Lake Michigan), with milder conditions Sunday night due to the increasing cloud cover and southeast winds.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Monday through Saturday:

Low pressure is expected to lift from around the Iowa/Missouri border early Monday to northwest Wisconsin by midnight Monday night. Still looks like warmer temps, higher dewpoints, and resultant greater instability within the warm sector of this system may sneak into southern Wisconsin by Monday afternoon. A 50-60 kt LLJ overhead by the afternoon will contribute to sold shear, bringing a potential for strong to severe storms.

A lot of questions remain with the severe chances, as there are still modest differences with the low track among models. Additionally, a couple models suggest that showers and storms may move through during the morning due to strong warm air advection aloft, which would likely dampen the stronger convective potential in the afternoon and evening. The warm sector could stay mainly south as well, with southeast winds off the chilly waters of Lake Michigan possibly sharpening the surface warm front along or south of the state line. That said, a couple of the latest models are a little farther north with the better warm sector ingredients, so we're still caught a bit between two potential scenarios. Overall though, it's still looking like areas along/south of I-94 and away from Lake Michigan would have the greater chance to see a few severe storms.

Will continue to keep an eye on a heavy rainfall threat on Monday, given models push the ~1.50" precipitable water values into southern portions of the forecast area. Localized flooding would be a concern given saturated soils and rivers remaining elevated.

Northwest flow will develop Tuesday behind the departing low and will likely persist through the remainder of the week. Surface high pressure will bring quiet weather much of this time, though a shortwave or two may bring some light rain chances at times. Temps in this pattern will run near to a few degrees below normal. Could see a return of a frost/freeze potential by the end of the week.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 555 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The area of low stratus with ceilings around 300 to 500 feet AGL and some fog with visibility of 1 to 3 miles near Milwaukee and Kenosha seems to be dissipating from north to south. This is probably due to the gusty north northeast winds bringing drier air south southwest across the lake and into this area. This trend should continue into early this evening.

Otherwise, expect some high clouds to move through into this evening, with east winds weakening toward Madison and Janesville and northeast winds weakening for Sheboygan, Milwaukee and Kenosha. These winds should all become east and remain light overnight into Sunday morning.

There is the potential for more low stratus with around 500 foot AGL ceilings and fog with 1 to 2 mile visibility to develop early Sunday morning for the Sheboygan, Waukesha, Milwaukee and Kenosha terminals. This should be mainly between 09Z and 15Z Sunday. Not sure if fog will be dense, but will monitor trends overnight into middle morning on Sunday. Some high clouds moving through the area overnight may limit the fog and low stratus development.

Winds will remain east southeast Sunday afternoon, with more northeast winds for terminals near Lake Michigan by middle to late afternoon. The ceilings may remain around 2500 feet AGL into the afternoon for the terminals near Lake Michigan.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 555 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The area of low clouds and some fog over the far southern portions of Lake Michigan seems to be dissipating from north to south. This is likely due to the gusty north northeast winds bringing drier air into this area. Look for these clouds and fog to mix out into early this evening.

High pressure of 30.0 inches over the northern Great Lakes will result in northerly winds of 10-20 knots continuing into this evening. East to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are then expected to develop tonight into Sunday as the high shifts eastward ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The 29.4 inch low is expected to lift from around the Iowa/Missouri border early Monday to Lake Superior by early Tuesday morning.

Winds will increase Monday into Monday night out of the south to southeast ahead of this low. The cooler lake temps should dampen the threat for gales across the lake, with a Small Craft Advisory likely for the nearshore waters. Breezy west to northwest winds will then develop behind the departing low by later Tuesday.

DDV/Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.