textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is expected tonight, with accumulations of a trace to half an inch most places and up to an inch towards Fond du Lac and Sheboygan.

- A wintry mix is expected to develop Tuesday evening, with slick spots on area roads possible due to continued cold pavement temperatures. Wintry mix will transition to snow on Wednesday, with uncertainty remaining in total snowfall amounts.

- Additional rounds of snowfall are then possible through the end of the work week, but confidence in exact time frames is much lower.

- Below normal temperatures continue through next weekend, with wind chills as cold as -15 to -25 by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

Issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Today and Tonight:

Light lake effect snow brushing lakeshore areas will lift northward and gradually weaken towards daybreak, ending by mid- morning. Dry weather is then expected the rest of the day as high pressure overhead this morning heads eastward. Warm air advection along with a weak shortwave will result in plenty of clouds through the day, but moisture around 850 mb will be limited. This should keep the bulk of any precip aloft from reaching the ground. Wouldn't be surprised by a few flurries though. Well below normal temps will persist today, as the airmass aloft won't have warmed much by the end of the day and clouds will also help to keep it chilly.

A second shortwave will move through tonight, bringing a better chance for light snow to southern Wisconsin. Model soundings show eventual saturation in the lower levels by early tonight, with stronger warm air advection and frontogenesis expected than with the first wave. The best chance for some light accumulations will be across roughly the northeast half of the forecast area towards the better lift. A blend of 00Z models gives anywhere from a trace southwest of Madison to upwards of an inch towards Fond du Lac and Sheboygan. Temps are expected to gradually warm overnight given the strong warm air advection and breezy south to southwest winds.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tuesday through Monday:

Dry weather will briefly return to the area Tuesday morning between systems, before an even stronger low approaches from the northwest in the afternoon, moving through overnight into early Wednesday. Deterministic and ensemble model mean surface low tracks continue to show the low moving through the northern forecast area or just to the north. There is actually fairly good agreement at the moment of low low track north to south among ensemble members, with more of a spread west to east due to timing differences. A consensus of the 00Z model tracks would suggest snow most places initially Tuesday evening, transitioning to rain central and southern portions of the forecast area by midnight, and possibly remaining mainly snow in the north. With this current expected track of the low, any small variations north to the south will result in a change of precip types and resultant potential snow accumulations. This system is expected to bring at least a few inches of snow north of the low, so future model runs and any variations in the track are worth keeping an eye on.

Another concern with the Tuesday night precipitation will be how quickly pavement temps will warm after this cold stretch. Rain falling on bare pavement or more even snow covered pavement (given the initial snow possibility) could make for slick roads for a time if road temps are slow to respond to the warming surface temps.

Lingering precip behind the low Wednesday morning should transition to all snow as the colder air moves in behind the low, with latest model showing the precip will exit by the afternoon.

Colder temperatures will push into the region Wednesday night through the end of the week, as multiple shortwaves move through, possibly also bringing a little light snow at times. By Saturday, high temperatures may not get out of the single digits most places. Breezy westerly winds Friday night into Saturday may result in wind chills as low as -25. Temps will then slowly recover early next week, but will remain well below normal.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will continue to move inland from the lake early this morning, with flurries at times in the east. Ceilings are expected to improve by mid-morning, with flurries also coming to an end. Mid to high level clouds are expected the rest of the day. Light and variable winds this morning will pick up out of the south this afternoon.

A shortwave is expected to then bring some light snow to southern Wisconsin later this evening through tonight, with the best chance for some light accumulations northeast of a line from Lone Rock to Janesville. Amounts will generally be around a half an inch, possibly around an inch towards Fond du Lac and Sheboygan. Snow to liquid ratios will be around 10-13 to 1, a fairly average snow moisture content. Visibilities of 3 to 5 miles are likely most places, possibly dropping down to a mile for a time in the northeast forecast area. Ceilings should drop to at least MVFR for a time as well. Winds tonight will be breezy out of the south to southwest, with low level wind shear possible the second half of the night.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Lighter winds this morning will pick up out of the south to southwest this afternoon and continue to increase this evening, as high pressure of 30.4 inches overhead this morning heads eastward. Gale force gusts are expected later this evening through tonight across the north half of the lake.

Low pressure of 29.2 inches will approach from the northern Plains Tuesday, bringing increased southerly winds across the south half of the lake by Tuesday night as the low moves through. Winds will all shift to northwesterly as the low exits into Wednesday, with gales possible in the southern half throughout this time frame. Winds gradually diminish Wednesday night, remaining west to northwest through the end of the week.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868...10 PM Monday to 6 AM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM Monday to noon Tuesday.