textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Very slight chances (~10%) for isolated flurries tonight.

- Temperatures warm today with highs in the 50s.

- Chances (mainly 20 to 30 percent) for precipitation returns to the area for Thursday. Potential for a few thunderstorms as well.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1144 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Current Overnight through Wednesday Night:

Cloud cover is expected to increase overnight in association with midlevel warm advection. The warm advection will cause saturation aloft from 700 to 600mb, but a significant depth of dry air from the surface to 700mb will likely limit any precip at the surface. If anything, a few isolated flurries occur as the warm advection moves through between now and 10am.

Otherwise, the rest of Tuesday will feature mostly cloudy to partly sunny conditions with warmer temperatures in the 50s and moderate southwest winds.

Warm advection and dry conditions continue into Wednesday and warmer 925mb temperatures move in aloft. Clouds will linger but temperatures will rise into the low to mid 60s away from Lake Michigan.

CMiller

LONG TERM

Issued 1153 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

Uncertainty still exists for Thursday, but the GFS seems to have come more in line with the ECMWF with a flatter low path from west to east over central to northern IL on Thursday. Given remaining uncertainty, PoPs remain in the 20 to 30% range. The best time for precip still looks to be Thursday afternoon and the GFS has a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. A few thunderstorms look possible but any severe weather looks like it would stay south in central IL at this time.

Beyond, temperatures dip back into the 40s for Friday, with another gradual building of temperatures back into the 60s through the weekend as ridging reloads over the central plains and upper Midwest. Precip chances return to the forecast Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front sharpens over the region. Both the GFS and ECMWF show potential for a more active weahter pattern during the middle of next week.

CMiller

AVIATION

Issued 1134 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Expect continuing VFR overnight as cloud cover increases over the region. Warm advection aloft is expected to kick off some saturation in the mid-levels of the atmosphere but precipitation will be hard pressed to reach the surface as a large depth of dry air will remain in place from the retreating high pressure from the previous day. If anything, a few isolated flurries may occur.

Flurry chances end after daybreak. Winds remain southerly to southwesterly at moderate speeds amid continuing VFR cloud clover.

CMiller

MARINE

Issued 1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Winds are expected to become southwesterly breezy over the northern end of Lake Michigan over the next few hours. This will happen as high pressure moves east and a sharper pressure gradient between the high and low pressure near James Bay moves over the lake. A few gale force gusts may occur on an intermittent basis especially between 7AM and Noon CDT.

Winds will then ease during the early afternoon as a cold front approaches the northern end of the lake and stalls through the afternoon and into the evening.

Largely south winds will then remain through Wednesday into Thursday morning, as a broad low pressure approaches from the west. The next best chance for gales will come Thursday evening as the backside of a low pressure system works southeast and a cold front plunges southward down the lake.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.