textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain chances (about 20 to 40 percent) return later tonight through Tuesday morning. Some light snow or light freezing drizzle/rain could briefly mix in at the onset of precip, though widespread impacts aren't currently anticipated.

- Temperatures trending well above normal Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Additional periods of rain are forecast Wednesday into Thursday (about 30 to 50 percent chances) and Friday into Saturday (about 60 to 80 percent chances). Some thunderstorms are possible in each round of rain.

UPDATE

Issued 532 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

There may be some lake effect clouds that occur this morning near Lake Michigan and shift slowly north northwest. In addition, an area of middle level clouds in southwest to west central Wisconsin may shift north northeast through far western portions of the area this morning. Quiet weather is expected today, with modest south to southeast winds developing. Highs should be in the middle 40s inland, with upper 30s lakeside.

There is a small chance (around 20 percent) for a wintry mix of light snow, light freezing drizzle/rain and light rain to occur later tonight into early Tuesday morning, as surface temperatures remain below freezing. There is a good amount of dry air to overcome during this time, despite upward vertical motion from passing 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis response. Forecast soundings are having some trouble saturating with the east southeast flow being dry. Thus, still quite uncertain if there will be enough moisture for the wintry mix and any possible impacts from it during this period.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 1159 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Tonight through Monday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: High pressure is migrating into Ontario this evening, allowing for a mixture of light but persistent northeasterly to southeasterly surface winds across southern Wisconsin. Pockets of earlier day lake effect clouds remain along the Kettle Moraine vicinity, but have been trended progressively more scattered as the evening has progressed. Expect this trend to continue through the overnight hours tonight as light low level breezes persist. Currently near the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border, low pressure will progress east toward the Hudson Bay on Monday as high pressure stalls near Lake Ontario. Said progression of the two surface features will maintain broad south to southeasterly winds regionally. Attendant warm air advection & mostly sunny skies will thus support milder high temperatures Monday afternoon, with most locations expected to climb into the low to mid 40s. Anticipate cooler temperatures in the mid-upper 30s near the Lake Michigan shoreline.

Quigley

LONG TERM

Issued 1159 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Monday night through Sunday:

Synopsis: The upper pattern will trend more active Monday night into next weekend, with several disturbances bringing a trio of rain chances to southern Wisconsin. The first is forecast to arrive late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with precip focusing along/ahead of increasing low level warm advection. Depending on temperature trends ahead of the arriving precip, some light snow or freezing drizzle could mix in at the start of rainfall during the predawn hours Tuesday, with continued warming of the column allowing for a changeover to all rain near & after sunrise. Affiliated with upper level energy currently over northern California, a shortwave trough will eject into the Central Plains Wednesday afternoon, bringing the second rain chance of the period Wednesday night into Thursday as it moves across the western Great Lakes. The third and likely greatest rain chance of the period arrives Friday into Saturday as a dynamic upper jet, trough, and affiliated surface front move through the region. Embedded thunderstorms are possible with rain Wednesday night-Thursday & Friday-Saturday. With surface winds largely ranging between easterly and southerly ahead of & between systems, temperatures will steadily trend upward through mid-week, with readings climbing well above early March normals by Friday. Following a minor cool down behind the Friday-Saturday cold front, southwest winds will return by Sunday, allowing for a return of well above normal temperatures.

Monday night into Tuesday morning: The first rain chance of the period arrives during the predawn hours. Of the three systems bringing rain chances to southern Wisconsin this week, synoptic forcing will be most marginal during this round, with precip also needing to overcome lingering dry air in the low levels. Best chances for precip will thus focus where warm advection overlaps with a band of decaying frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer, with the precise track of said frontogenesis still uncertain as of this forecast. Have continued to carry broad 20-40% precip probabilities in light of location uncertainties, with the expectation that a narrower area of higher probabilities will be introduced as frontogenesis placement clarifies over coming forecasts. As stated above, will continue monitoring for potential light freezing drizzle or snow briefly mixing in with rain at the onset of precipitation, as temperatures will be hovering just above or at the freezing mark. Current thinking is that is that any mix would be short-lived, with continued low level warming allowing for a changeover to all rain by sunrise. Thus don't anticipate widespread impacts in the event that brief rain-snow-freezing drizzle mix occurs, but will be closely watching trends. If surface temps were to trend colder, potential for a light glaze of ice or dusting of snow would increase. Will provide additional updates as necessary in coming forecasts. Wednesday into Thursday: Expect the next round of rain as a shortwave trough moves across southern Wisconsin. MUCAPE forecasts from the LREF hint at some weak (~100-250 J/kg) elevated instability across parts of the region, particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening as the upper wave & coldest mid-level temperatures pass overhead. Thus can't rule out a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Not currently anticipating any hazards outside of some lightning, but will nevertheless be monitoring trends.

Friday through Saturday: The best precip chances of the period arrive ahead of pronounced upper level dynamics & an accompanying surface cold front. Mild surface temps will allow for all rain, with LREF soundings suggesting a touch more instability (~250-500 J/kg). Thus anticipate additional embedded thunderstorm potential during the Friday-Saturday time frame. Will need to monitor these instability trends in coming forecasts, as the encroaching upper jet will provide plenty of deep layer shear to allow for a few stronger storms in the event instability trends up. Tend to agree with current machine learning guidance, which holds better potential for strong storms from Illinois into the Ohio Valley (where instability will be higher). Will also need to monitor for heavy downpour potential in embedded thunderstorms, as precipitable water values will be approaching 1 inch/3 standard deviations above early March normals.

Quigley

AVIATION

Issued 532 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

There may be some lake effect clouds around 2500 feet AGL that occur this morning near Lake Michigan and shift slowly north northwest. These may affect Sheboygan and Milwaukee/Waukesha. In addition, an area of middle level clouds around 8000 feet AGL in southwest Wisconsin may shift north northeast through far western portions of the area this morning. These may miss Madison to the northwest.

Otherwise, quiet weather is expected today, with modest south to southeast winds developing. Light south to southeast winds are expected tonight, with light southeast to east winds on Tuesday. Middle to high clouds should move into the area tonight, lowering Tuesday to 2500 to 3500 feet AGL by midday.

There is a small chance (around 20 percent) for a wintry mix of light snow, light freezing drizzle/rain and light rain to occur later tonight into early Tuesday morning, as surface temperatures remain below freezing. There is a good amount of dry air to overcome during this time, so still quite uncertain if there will be enough moisture for the wintry mix. Left mention out of TAFs for now. If any precipitation occurs after this period Tuesday, it should be light rain.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 1159 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

1036 mb high pressure is centered over southern Ontario late this evening, resulting in generally light winds across the open waters of Lake Michigan. Winds will trend southerly through the second half of the overnight hours as the high continues east and 1006 mb low pressure moves across northern Manitoba. Said low will move into the Hudson Bay Monday afternoon, resulting in breezy winds across Lake Michigan. Gusts between 25-30 knots are possible over the northern third of the open waters, though gales are not expected at this time. Winds will subside Monday night through Tuesday as low pressure shifts into Quebec and 1032 mb high pressure builds into Ontario, with light and variable winds continuing into Tuesday evening.

Winds will trend east-northeasterly across the open waters late Tuesday night through Wednesday as 1012 mb low pressure develops in the southern Great Plains and shifts northeast toward the Mississippi River. The low will approach and ultimately pass near or just south of the southern open waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with gales not expected at this time. Periods of rain will accompany the approaching/passing low Wednesday into Thursday, with a few thunderstorms possible over southern Lake Michigan Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Another area of 1002 mb low pressure will form in the central Great Plains Thursday night, and is forecast to progress toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley during the day on Friday. The low's approach will bring increasing southerly winds to the open waters on Friday, along with widespread areas of rain and embedded thunderstorms. The low will move from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan toward the southern Hudson Bay Friday night through Saturday, dragging a cold front across Lake Michigan in the process. Additional rain is expected during the frontal passage. Winds will veer southwest to westerly as the front passes. A few gales are possible, with more widespread gale potential depending on the still uncertain precise track & central pressure of the passing surface low. Will continue to monitor trends in coming forecasts.

Widespread rain & a few thunderstorms are possible in nearshore zones Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure passes over or just south of southern Lake Michigan. Additional rain and thunder are expected Friday into Saturday as a second area of low pressure moves from the central Great Plains toward Lake Superior. Waves and wind gusts could approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds ahead of the approaching/passing surface low Friday into Saturday, with trends being monitored for potential headlines in coming forecasts.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.