textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread frost and below freezing temps this morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most of southern WI, with a Frost Advisory in effect over far southeast WI.

- More active pattern early next week with increased showers and storm chances Sunday through midweek. A short warm up is expected Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s, respectively.

UPDATE

Issued 515 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Scattered frost this morning will quickly be alleviated over the next few hours as the sun comes up and begins to warm us up. Clear skies primarily to start the day but some diurnal cu is expected this afternoon, perhaps becoming even broken cloud cover. No changes for todays forecast.

Kuroski

SHORT TERM

Issued 1134 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

The Frost/Freeze headlines are looking good late this evening with mostly clear skies and temps in the lower to middle 30s. Some scattered mid level clouds may move into srn WI during the early morning hours as another weak vorticity maximum arrives, but it should not impact temps too much.

For Sat, the nnwly flow aloft will continue to have weak shortwave troughs embedded within it, so another round of broken cloud cover for the afternoon is expected, but not enough instability for showers. At the surface, light nwly winds will back to wly winds during the afternoon marking the onset of warm advection. This is in response to a west to east sfc ridge across srn WI Sat AM shifting to the middle MS River Valley and Ohio Valley by late in the day. High temps will continue to range from upper 40s at the Lake MI beaches to upper 50s over south central WI.

The low to mid level warm advection will increase into Sat nt- Sun AM as a shortwave trough and wave of low pressure approach from the west northwest. The nose of a swly 40 kt low level jet will be the main catalyst for precipitation. Increased rain chances to 50 percent for Sun AM. After the wave passes some sunshine is expected and temps will climb into the 60s.

Yet another stronger shortwave trough and deepening low pressure area will then track across far srn Canada, including the Lake Superior region on Monday. Swly winds will bring a brief return of 70 degree temps. The cold frontal passage will support 50 percent chances for showers and storms at this time. It appears enough moisture may be available for tall, skinny CAPE and high based storms given relatively low afternoon RH. Mdt to strong wind shear will be present so if organized storms can form, severe is possible.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 1134 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tuesday through Friday:

An increasingly cooler period is expected as 1000-500 thickness trough gradually deepens over the Upper MS River Valley and wrn Great Lakes for the middle of the week. There will be 20-30 percent chances for instability showers each day.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 515 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Perhaps some very isolated patches of fog this morning but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through much, if not all, of the TAF period. SCT to BKN VFR CIGS this afternoon from diurnal CIGS but the main things to watch will be a brief period of LLWS late tonight being possible as well as increasing chances for some low VFR CIGS with some rain showers pushing in from the west late tonight into the day Sunday.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 1134 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Winds will generally remain light and variable to northerly tonight into the first half of tomorrow as high pressure of 30.2 inches sinks southeast over Lake Michigan. Winds are then expected to become light and variable for a time again Saturday afternoon before turning southerly Saturday night. Winds then grow breezy Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure of 29.6 inches approaches the lake, dragging a cold front over it. Winds will only become westerly behind the front for a time, returning to southwesterly on Monday ahead of another stronger low of 29.4 inches.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067- WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 until 8 AM Saturday.

Frost Advisory...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 8 AM Saturday.

LM...None.