textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to occasionally moderate snow continues through the rest of this afternoon. Total accumulation around a half an inch expected, with a few locally higher totals near one inch possible.

- Widespread rain expected Thursday night. Some rain-snow mix is possible across the far north, with any accumulation remaining light (half inch or less).

- Very gusty non-thunderstorm winds expected during the day Friday.

- Confidence is increasing for significant accumulating snow and blowing snow Saturday night through Sunday night. Where exactly the heaviest snow will fall remains uncertain. Pay close attention to the forecast if planning to travel during this time frame.

SHORT TERM

Issued 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: An upper trough is moving into the Upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon, with increasing DPVA & frontogenesis rooted near the 700 mb level encouraging a band of light to occasionally moderate snow across southern Wisconsin. Visibility observations indicate that snowfall rates up to 0.5"/hr are occurring along the leading edge of the snowfall band, which is roughly located with the narrow area of frontogenesis aloft. Expect these rates to contract into east-central and southeastern Wisconsin near-term as the associated area of 700 mb frontogenesis shifts east, with lighter snowfall prevailing into the late afternoon hours. Conditions will clear out this evening as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains. Currently positioned over Alberta, a clipper system and compact surface low will migrate along the US-Canada border Thursday, progressing into Michigan's Upper Peninsula Thursday night into Friday morning. Lift ahead of the approaching/passing system will encourage a quick round of widespread precipitation development Thursday night into early Friday morning, with conditions being warm enough for all rain across the majority of the area. Non-thunderstorm winds will become very gusty as the surface low passes to the north of the area Thursday night into Friday. Headlines will likely become necessary in coming forecasts.

Rest of Today: Mainly light snow will continue through mid-late afternoon as the upper wave discussed above moves east across the region. With the more focused band of 700 mb frontogenesis/locally higher snowfall rates in the process of shifting over Lake Michigan, expect that most rates from here forward will largely be below 0.25" per hour. Could thus see a few more tenths of accumulation through the remainder of the day, putting the event-total snow forecast of 0.5"/locally higher to 1" on track in the afternoon update. Given the much lighter rates through the remainder of the day & conclusion of icing impacts, have thus cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory previously in effect for Marquette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan Counties. Budget a few extra minutes of time if encountering light snow on the roads through the remainder of today.

Thursday Night: Increasing ascent along/ahead of a passing clipper system will support widespread precipitation across the region. Increasing low level warm advection in advance of the clipper will allow thermal profiles to become mild enough for all rain across the majority/all of the region through most of the overnight period. Will need to monitor forecast sounding trends over far northern areas, as profiles could stay just cool enough for some wet rain- snow mix through the overnight period. Could also briefly see some wet snowflakes mix in with rain areawide near sunrise as cold air begins to work in on the back side of the system. Currently looking at light (< 0.5") if any accumulation with any snow that mixes in, but will continue to watch trends over coming updates.

Friday: Non thunderstorm-winds will become very gusty on the back side of passing low pressure. Currently anticipate widespread gusts between 40-45 MPH, with some potential for locally higher gusts to 50 MPH. Thus anticipate the eventual need for headlines---likely Wind Advisories---in coming forecast updates/as location trends clarify. Be sure to secure any loose outdoor furniture ahead of Friday's gusty winds.

Quigley

LONG TERM

Issued 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Saturday through Wednesday:

Confidence continues to increase that a significant winter storm will impact the region this weekend, with a swath of heavy snow likely along with strong winds. As is common with deepening/phasing systems like this, big questions remain with the track of the low and timing of the phasing, which will impact where the swath of heaviest snow sets up. Additionally, the last couple runs of models have been on the high side with total liquid equivalent (in the 1 to 3 inch range), which can happen when a storm is a few days out. Model storm total QPF often settles back down within 1 to 3 days of the storm arrival. That said, this is looking like a very strong low, with plenty of forcing and moisture along with significant winds. There will likely be significant impacts with this storm this weekend, it's just a matter of where at this point.

The latest ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensemble MSLP means still have the low tracking over or just to the south of Chicago. The deterministic GFS and Canadian runs are similar, though the deterministic ECMWF continues to be a bit farther north, tracking the low over southern Wisconsin. A track over the Chicago area would result in significant snowfall across at least the northern half of the forecast area, with these impacts spreading farther south if the low ends up a bit farther south. A farther north low track would shift the heavier snow mainly north of the forecast area. Still a decent spread among individual ensemble member low tracks, contributing to the lower confidence in the track of this storm and resultant storm totals. Overall, this storm remains worth keeping an eye on as the weekend approaches.

Colder and drier conditions are expected to settle into the region behind the departing low early next week, as high pressure moves in from the northwest. Below normal temps are likely Monday and Tuesday, with temps moderating towards normal by mid-week.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Majority MVFR and IFR flight categories prevail early this afternoon as -SN moves across southern Wisconsin. VIS readings as low as 1 SM have been noted along the leading edge of the incoming -SN, pointing to snowfall rates in the 0.25-0.5 inch per hour range at the onset of precipitation. Rates lighten substantially behind the leading edge of -SN. Have thus carried lowest VIS reductions for short time periods at all fields, with arrival times being estimated per latest radar trends. Will continue to make amendments as necessary through the afternoon hours. Expect VIS and CIG readings to gradually improve through the late afternoon as snowfall rates lighten. Drier air will work in from the northwest this evening, allowing for the return of VFR flight categories after sunset. VFR flight categories will continue through the remainder of the period thereafter. SCT to BKN mid-level clouds will approach from the west Thursday evening, working into the vicinity of MKE nearing the conclusion of the 30 hour forecast period.

Quigley

MARINE

Issued 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low pressure of 29.5 inches over southwest Ontario will continue to pull away to the northeast the remainder of the day through tonight. Northwest winds gusting to gale force at times are likely this afternoon and evening evening behind the low. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the open waters for this period, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the nearshore waters.

Lighter winds are likely tonight into early Thursday as high pressure of 30.2 inches briefly moves through. Strong low pressure of 29.0 inches is then expected to move through northern Wisconsin into northern Michigan Thursday night into Friday. Increasing southerly winds are expected later Thursday into Thursday night ahead of the low. Though the cold lake may dampen the gust potential Thursday night, southerly gales are still likely. There is a better chance for west to northwest gales on Friday behind the low, with a few gusts to storm force not out of the question. A Gale Watch remains in effect for Thursday evening through Friday evening.

Winds are expected to ease Friday night into Saturday as high pressure of 30.3 inches moves in from the northwest. Another strong low pressure system is likely to move through the region late in the weekend into early next week, with another round of gales likely. A colder airmass behind the low may lead to a round of heavy freezing spray Sunday night into Monday as the strong winds and higher waves linger.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM Thursday.

Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673- LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...7 PM Thursday to 1 AM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM Thursday.