textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasingly warm and continued low relative humidity days through Thursday.

- Increasing humidity and thunderstorm chances for late Thursday night through Saturday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Rest of Tonight through Thursday:

Calm winds and clear skies will give way to a southwest breeze by mid Wednesday morning and increasing high clouds in the afternoon. Expect a lake breeze to develop and reach Milwaukee just after noon, so this will give them a little more time to warm into the mid 70s than the past few days. Inland areas will see highs in the lower 80s.

Southwest winds will become breezy on Thursday as the high exits and low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains. As long as there is not too many high clouds overhead from the upstream convection Wed nt, high temperatures Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s, including the lakeshore (south of Port Washington). This will be a favorable wind direction for the Milwaukee Metro area to heat up into the upper 80s. With dewpoints still in the 40s, the heat index values will be close to the temperatures.

Cronce

LONG TERM

Issued 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Thursday night through Monday:

The closed upper low that has been sitting over the Northern Plains and producing rounds of storms each evening will finally track eastward across the southern Canadian border Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, it will be getting into Ontario. Meanwhile, an upper trough sitting over the southern Plains and the high over the east central U.S. will be in position for mid-level disturbances to propagate from Mexico into the Upper Midwest. This will draw gulf moisture into Wisconsin by Thursday evening.

For comparison, the precipitable water values will go from around 0.5 inch today to 1.75 inches Thursday night through Friday night. Dewpoints will rise into the upper 50s Thursday, and then push into the lower-mid 60s Friday.

Central WI will be within the right entrance region of the upper jet, on the nose of the low level jet, and within a mid level shortwave (vorticity advection). This forcing and the moisture should be enough for a thunderstorm complex to develop in the late evening hours (location still uncertain) and for storms to slowly track through southern WI Thursday night into Friday morning. If the storm complex can become organized, severe wind is a threat. If the storms remain more discrete, then wind and hail would be lesser threats, but still present. At a minimum, this is looking like a good setup for beneficial rainfall.

The weak ripples/shortwaves in the mid level flow will still be over central/southern WI all day Friday. Thus, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms all day. The upper jet will remain stationary (right entrance region right over southern WI) until Saturday morning. This means storms will be possible any time until the main cold front finally swings through around midday Saturday.

We will be under high pressure Sunday and Monday. Then an upper low meandering through the Plains will bring increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to southwest WI for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Cronce

AVIATION

Issued 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Clear skies tonight will give way to more high clouds tomorrow (Wed). Winds will start to increase out of the south Wed afternoon. Expect a lake breeze to hit KMKE by early afternoon. A few gusts up to 16KT are possible with the southerly breeze and lake breeze.

Cronce

MARINE

Issued 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High pressure over Lake Michigan will shift to Lower Michigan by Wednesday afternoon. Light and variable winds will become southerly Wednesday night as the high pressure slowly moves east of the region. Modest south to southwest winds will then prevail over the lake for Thursday into Saturday morning followed by a wind shift to the north during a cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon. Shower and storm chances will return Thursday night through Saturday.

For the nearshore areas of southeast WI, persistent southerly winds will build high waves Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly north of Port Washington. A few gusts up to 25 kt are possible. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...2 PM Thursday to 10 PM Thursday.