textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance (20-40%) for light snow this evening and overnight, mainly northeast of a line from the Wisconsin Dells to Kenosha. A narrow band of up to 0.5 inch of snow is possible.

- Milder temps with highs in the 30s and 40s are expected early next week.

UPDATE

Issued 613 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Forecast remains on track through today, with mostly sunny skies this morning yielding to mostly cloudy skies by this evening ahead of the previously discussed shortwave. Expecting highs in the upper teens to low 20s. Have bumped up PoPs a bit overnight, as 00Z/06Z modeling has indicated increased potential for a ~850 mb frontogenesis band to develop somewhere in south-central to southeastern Wisconsin. If this band manages to sit over a single area for longer than a couple hours, it would be capable of producing up to an inch of snow. Currently looks as though it would remain progressive, so up to a half inch of snow is the current forecast. However, will be monitoring trends through the day as the band develops and shows its hand.

MH

SHORT TERM

Issued 1211 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Today and Tonight:

Clear skies, light winds and cold temperatures will lead to a quiet but chilly day. Sfc high pressure will be moving from Manitoba through Wisconsin today. These quiet conditions will persist through the day with clouds gradually increasing from west to east ahead of an approaching mid/upper level shortwave. This shortwave will swing through this evening into tonight bringing another small chance (20-30%) for some light snow. The best chances for this light snow will be along and east of a line from roughly the Dells to Janesville. This will be a quick hitting snow fall with light rates and totals around a dusting to maybe a couple tenths of an inch. The light snow is expected to end in the early morning hours Sunday.

Patterson

LONG TERM

Issued 1211 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

Sunday kicks off the dry conditions and warming temperatures through at least mid week. Ridging will be building in aloft with a trough pulling out to our east. At the sfc, a broad area of high pressure gradually push east into the the New England and Mid Atlantic states with low pressure systems to the west in the Plains. Between these two systems, Wisconsin will get southwest to southeast winds. This will bringing rising temps and dewpoints for a couple days

Tuesday looks to be the warmest of the week. At the sfc there looks to be a warm front that will pass during the day Tuesday which will provide a good push of WAA (looks to be a dry frontal passage). Looking at the spread among models there is quiet a range of temperatures. Looking at the box and whiskers plots for Euro, CAN, and GFS ensembles shows the interquartile ranges solidly around 38 to 45 degrees which also tracks with the NBM. This is all well above normal for this time of year so a warm day for sure (a taste of spring for those looking). Looking at the maximum values does show slim chances to be in the upper 40s to near 50s. Regardless of the temps, far southern and southwestern Wisconsin will be the warmest with temperatures decreasing as you head north and east. If the warm front under preforms and were looking at highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Guidance has finally come into some better focus for the Tuesday night through Wednesday time frame. Slight discrepancies in timing and location of the upper level trough still remain, but the trough will swing through Ontario and Quebec and clip the northern Great Lakes Region. There is another shortwave right on the heels of this system and there looks to be a good jet setting up over northern Wisconsin. The Euro is a bit quicker and further north while the GFS is a bit further south. The sfc low looks to track along the US/Canada border as it moves east southeast. There will also be a second sfc low moving northeast from the Southern Plains around this time. This puts Wisconsin between the two systems and looks to starve us of moisture. There are still a few models/ensembles that show good chances for rain and a wintry mix, but POPs have come down to around 10-20% or less through Wednesday. A lot can still change here, so keep up to date with the forecast.

Slightly cooler temperatures in the 30s look to remain through the end of the work week with high pressure and ridging starting to build in as we hit the latter half of the week.

Patterson

AVIATION

Issued 613 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions with light and variable to calm winds throughout today. This evening into tonight, light snow may develop from MSN to JVL north and eastward. Best chances are in southeastern Wisconsin, with local drops in visibility to MVFR within heavier snow showers. A localized band of steady snow may develop across south-central to southeastern Wisconsin late tonight, but confidence in exact placement is uncertain. Within this band, accumulations up to 0.5 inch are expected. A few spots may see up to an inch. Snow will end by early Sunday morning, with southeasterly winds developing.

MH

MARINE

Issued 1211 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Gusty northerly winds will gradually ease overnight into Saturday while becoming northwest as high pressure of 30.5 inches builds in from the northwest. Gale force gusts are expected to end around or prior to midnight, but the breezy conditions will keep Heavy Freezing Spray going into Saturday morning. Thus the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning was extended.

As the high moves overhead Saturday winds will diminish becoming light. Saturday night the high will move into the Ohio River Valley turning winds to southerly. Winds will slightly increase heading into Sunday morning behind the departing high. Light to moderate southerly winds are expected through at least Monday night as low pressure of 29.8 inches approaches from the west.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 AM Saturday.