textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect into late tonight for a High Swim Risk at beaches in Sheboygan, Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties. - Expect a gradual warming trend through the Memorial Day weekend.

- There are light rain chances or drizzle (15-30%) over se WI tonight. The very light rain or drizzle could linger into Saturday morning. Rain/storm chances of 20-50% are then forecast for Saturday afternoon/night and shower chances Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued 711 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Sprinkles may clip the western forecast area this evening into tonight, with light rain possibly brushing southeast areas later tonight into early Saturday. Most locations are expected to remain dry though through tonight. Given milder temps aloft and continued mostly cloudy skies, low temps tonight should be at least a few degrees warmer than last night. Overall, the forecast looks on track for this evening and tonight.

DDV

SHORT TERM

Issued 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Tonight through Sunday night:

Tonight we will see a developing low pressure system in the low to central MS valley swing NNE into the central GL region. The vast majority of this system will be well to the east of us but parts of far eastern central and southeast WI may get some showers on the backside of the system as it pushes through. Models largely suggest limited precip chances at this time and latest trends have lowered PoPs (15-30%) but there is still some PVA lingering in models and perhaps enough midlevel moisture to bring a shower but lack of forcing seems to be the primary issue for shower chances.

Into the day Saturday while largely expected to be quiet during the afternoon and evening we will be watching for weak isolated to scattered shower/storm chances associated with a departing low in south central Canada bringing a front across the region. The low levels will have enough moisture and the front may provide just enough forcing to bring a few showers/weak storms. very weak instability ahead of the front will allow for some potential for some rumbles of thunder. The risk with this is quite short lived as it will be directly connected with the front. In addition the frontal feature will weak toward the south and instability will fizzle as this front moves east into the evening. Best chances for a rumbles of thunder look to be western and more specifically west central WI but we cannot rule out chances across all of southern WI.

Chances for rain showers will increase across southeast WI into late Saturday night and early Sunday morning as a shortwave embedded in the upper trough swings northward through the western GL region connected with the moisture that will allow for some precip. The best chances will be over the lake where the better forcing is but the upper level moisture and forcing are connected enough to where we could see precip as far west as Madison. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder with this either but chances generally appear limited at this time. This is expected to push out by the afternoon with quiet conditions expected the rest of the day as the upper level trough clears out and drier air slides in in the low to midlevels. Will remain dry across southern WI Sunday night.

Beach Hazards statement remains in effect for east winds bringing wave heights to the 3-4 foot range though likely to remain below 5 feet as winds and thus waves are not expected to be as strong as previously expected. Beach Hazards will expand by 4PM to Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties as waves become a bit higher further north along the nearshore of the lake. I have shortened the backend as waves look likely to fall below 3ft later tonight. Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Monday through Friday:

Chances for precip at times through next week but chances look weak overall given largely ridging aloft with limited shortwave impacts seen at this time and for the most part high pressure at the surface. Some frontal features will be possible but even the low to mid level moisture field appears fairly dry but given the warmer conditions expected for the week with some decent surface moisture we cannot rule out some surface or near surface based precip/storms. Friday will likely feature the best chances as an interruption to the pattern but Monday will feature shower/storm chances in parts of WI but it may end up being too dry in the low levels for anything to really be expected to occur Monday across southern WI.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 711 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Sprinkles may clip the western forecast area this evening into tonight, with light rain possibly brushing southeast areas later tonight into early Saturday. Most locations are expected to remain dry though through Saturday morning.

Lower ceilings will likely push in from the southeast later tonight into Saturday morning as low pressure approaches the area. Lower ceilings are also expected by the afternoon as a trough approaches from the west. Widespread MVFR ceilings are likely tomorrow, with a period of IFR conditions possible in at least the east. An area of showers may then move through west to east late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night as the trough swings through. A rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question.

Easterly winds 10 to 15 knots early this evening will gradually wind down though late evening, with light easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots expected most places later tonight and Saturday. Winds will likely be northeast once again tomorrow near Lake Michigan.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

High pressure of 30.4 inches centered over eastern Canada and NE US will gradually continue east while strengthening. Modest to breezy east to northeast winds are expected into tonight, with winds becoming northerly on Saturday as low pressure of 29.9 inches lifts northeast to eastern Great Lakes region. Southerly winds are then expected to develop later Saturday night as the higher pressure to the east pushes out and a weak front pulls through. Winds will remain largely light and southerly through Tuesday between broad high pressure to the east and broad low pressure to the west.

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until only 9z now as waves will remain in the 3-4 ft range but will definitely fall below thresholds later tonight.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 AM Saturday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM Saturday.