textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow continues east of Madison but will taper off through the rest of the afternoon. A Blizzard Warning will remain in effect until 4 PM over the eastern half of the CWA and will likely be followed up by a Winter Weather Advisory into this evening.

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect over the western half of the CWA for lingering blowing snow and slick roads.

- Additional flurries and light snow showers may occur this evening and into tonight. - A Storm Warning is in effect for the northern two thirds of Lake Michigan and will change to a Gale Warning at 7PM. A Gale Warning is in effect for the southern third through late tonight, and a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect early through Tuesday morning.

- Light accumulating snowfall will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 1 to 2 inches of snow are expected across the area, with 2 inches more likely southwest of Madison.

SHORT TERM

Issued 243 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Tonight through Wednesday:

Light snow continues over the eastern half of the area. Visibilities have largely improved and the Blizzard Warning will likely be let go in favor of a Winter Weather Advisory for lingering blowing snow and slick spots. Winds are expected to remain elevated over the area into this evening, and we will likely run the Winter Weather Advisory over the eastern half of the area until winds drop below 30mph, which will lessen the blowing snow threat.

Over the western half of the area, snow has largely ended and visibility has improved. The Winter Weather Advisory runs until 4PM there, and we don't forsee that being extended.

This evening into tonight, weak shortwave is expected to dive southeast over the area. This, combined with steep lates in the 925 to 800mb layer, may cause some shallow snow showers capable of flurries and light snow until the waves moves along around midnight. Temperatures are expected to be chilly tonight as an arctic air mass moves in. Lows will be around zero with wind chills in the negative teens. Cold temperatures will continue tomorrow as the center of the cold air mass and high pressure moves overhead tomorrow.

As we head into Tuesday night a fast moving shortwave aloft and 850 to 700mb WAA and fgen will drive an area of snow that will slide southeast over the area between 7PM Tuesday and 7AM Wednesday. Euro and GFS ensemble probs show the best chances for highest amounts being over the Mississippi Valley and southwest of Madison, where the best lift will occur. Here, 2 inches of snow are possible, while the rest of the area will be in line for 1 inch. Temperatures then rise to near 40 on Wednesday following the snow, as surface warm advection on southwest winds pushes warmer air from a building ridge over the plains into the Upper Midwest.

CMiller

LONG TERM

Issued 227 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Wednesday night through Monday:

Another weak WAA wave looks possible Wednesday night into Thursday. With the forcing being nebulous and the positioning placing precip anywhere from northeast WI to central WI, the NBM feathers in chance PoPs fo 15 to 30% over the region early Thursday morning. Given temperatures profiles, if we receive any precipitation, it'll fall as a light wintry mix or light freezing rain.

Beyond, a ridge builds over the plains and high pressure keeps us relatively dry as couple waves pass over northern Wisconsin and the UP Friday and Saturday. Sunday, a more substantial clipper system may pass over southern WI providing a round of mixed precip, though this is wave is most substantial on the ECMWF. While temperatures will gradually warm to the low to mid 50s heading into the weekend as a result of the ridge, this late weekend storm system may knock temperatures back toward normal for the start of next week.

CMiller

AVIATION

Issued 210 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Light to moderate snow continues east of KMSN as lingering snow tapers off from west to east across southern WI. A mixture of ceilings are also ongoing over southern WI ranging from LIFR to VFR. Vis is also highly variable, ranging from 1 to 6SM over the area.

As we head into tonight, northwest winds will remain elevated causing continued BLSN but will begin to taper off with time heading toward 06Z, and then ease to moderate through 12Z Tuesday ending steady BLSN. Ceilings should rise to VFR tonight and then scatter out with time. VFR conditions then linger into tomorrow.

CMiller

MARINE

Issued 210 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Low pressure will continue northwest crossing over Lake Huron later this afternoon. Gales are currently ongoing over the much of the lake with storm force gusts less certain at this point. We will maintain the Storm Warning at this time for some areas seeing close to storm force gusts. We will end the Storm Warning a bit earlier (0z) to account for the lack of significant wind gusts at this time. Snow has slowed over the lake with mostly light snow at this point but some drops in visibilities may still be expected at times

Colder temperatures today will bringing heavy freezing spray to the entire lake, continuing into Tuesday given the frigid temperatures a breezy winds expected overnight. Low pressure will gradually exit into Ontario later this afternoon. Gales and heavy freezing spray are expected to continue through much of tonight and perhaps lingering into Tuesday morning, particularly with freezing spray. Nearshore gales will likely end by the mid to late evening as higher winds with the pressure gradient shift east. Winds will slowly diminish through Tuesday, shifting to southerly ahead of another system Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds shift to southwesterly as the system progresses through Ontario Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then to northwesterly on Thursday as a cold front progresses southeastward through the region.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Blizzard Warning...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064- WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 PM Monday.

Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062- WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069 until 4 PM Monday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Tuesday.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646- LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870- LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 11 AM Tuesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...7 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday.

Storm Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until 7 PM Monday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM Tuesday.