textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front will bring gusty winds and much colder temperatures early Wednesday morning. A dusting of snow could cause a minor travel headache during the morning commute.

- Next chance for light snow is Thursday night into Friday, with additional chances for snow showers all the way through Sunday. Colder temperatures for the weekend.

SHORT TERM

Issued 303 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Tonight through Wednesday night:

A weak mid level shortwave trough will cross WI late this afternoon and this will just give us some gustier winds and then falling temps (but still above freezing) during the early evening. Another little shortwave that is currently near International Falls, MN will quickly track across the U.P. this evening. There is an Arctic front just behind this feature. One more shortwave, this one much more robust, will swing down through WI and IL overnight into Wed morning. This will push the arctic front (temps abruptly falling below freezing) into northern WI by midnight, central WI by 3 AM, and the WI/IL border by 6 AM.

Expect scattered light snow showers along the front and then some flurries behind it. Some sunshine should peak out by midday as drier air works in. A dusting of snow is expected and will be accompanied by gusty north- northwest winds. If surface temps are above freezing all night, then some adherence of this snow to it while temperatures plummet below freezing during the morning commute could cause a few slick spots. The gusty north winds will persist into Wednesday evening.

Wednesday will be cold. The high temperatures Wednesday will be in the lower 20s. The blustery north winds up to 30 mph will keep wind chills lower, generally in the single digits. Lows Wed nt will be around 10F.

Cronce

LONG TERM

Issued 303 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

Lighter winds and some sunshine Thursday will allow for highs in the lower to mid 20s. Then an upper trough approaching from the Northern Plains will swing across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night. Light snow is expected with the weak warm air advection just ahead of the associated surface trough. This lift will help saturate low levels up to 10kft and the temp profile looks fairly uniform at around -8C. A period of light, wet snow is expected across southern WI from late Thursday evening through Friday morning along this trough.

The surface low will slowly make its way across Lake Superior on Friday as the upper low begins to occlude. Modest, gusty west winds are expected over southern WI. Daytime highs will improve to the mid 30s during the day Friday, and there is a chance for lingering light snow showers (or drizzle if we lose ice crystals). Snowfall amounts look light, like up to 2 inches in a 6 hour period. However, we will watch for sneaky frontogenesis bands as the time approaches.

Then a cold front will make its way into southern WI early Friday evening and bring another chance of light snow showers on gusty west winds. Lingering cyclonic flow from the stalled upper low over the eastern States and cold-core high pressure building in from the Northern Plains will keep brisk northwest winds in place over southern WI and the potential for light snow showers. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will only be in the teens, with overnight lows in the single digits.

There is uncertainty in snow chances and therefore the temperatures for Sunday through Monday night because of model differences for the arrival time of another upper trough. This cold pattern is expected to remain in place until the middle of next week.

Cronce

AVIATION

Issued 303 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Lower clouds with bases around 3500 ft will wrap into south central WI by early evening and then MVFR ceilings are expected around midnight. An arctic front will bring lower MVFR ceilings and scattered snow showers late tonight into Wednesday morning. Expect the scattered light snow showers along the front and then some flurries behind it.

A dusting of snow is expected and will be accompanied by gusty north- northwest winds. If surface temps are above freezing all night, then some adherence of this snow to it while temperatures plummet below freezing during the morning commute could cause a few slick spots. Some breaks in the clouds and improvement to VFR by midday is expected as drier air works in. Snow chances will quickly taper off Wednesday morning as drier air works into the region, but blustery NNW winds will persist into the evening hours.

Cronce

MARINE

Issued 303 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Gusty west to southwest winds are expected across Lake Michigan through this evening as low pressure continues to cross Ontario. A strong, Arctic cold front will drop down Lake Michigan overnight. Northwest winds will rapidly increase to gale force behind the front, with gales ending Wednesday evening. Gale Warnings are in effect for all of Lake Michigan. This includes the Nearshore areas. Moderate to occasionally heavy freezing spray is also expected during this time.

By late Wednesday night, high pressure of 30.3 inches will build into the Plains, and eventually cross the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday. Low pressure of 29.4 inches will cross Lake Superior on Friday and stall over the lower Great Lakes Saturday while weakening to 29.5 inches. Colder air on the back side of the low will overspread Lake Michigan on gusty westerly winds on Saturday.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 AM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 AM Wednesday to 9 PM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565...midnight Wednesday to midnight Thursday.

Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...3 AM Wednesday to midnight Thursday.