textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms are possible this evening into tonight. A few storms could be severe, with large hail being the primary threat.

- Additional showers and storms are forecast Tuesday morning and afternoon, with exact areas of development depending on early day clouds/rain and front timing. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and gusty winds being the primary threats.

- Increasing potential for wintry mix impacts Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

- Additional chances for rain & a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued 654 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A mix of mid and high level clouds early this morning should give way to mostly sunny skies by mid-morning. It does look like there could be some scattered to broken cloud cover forming in the east this afternoon as a lake enhanced frontal boundary drops in from the northeast. Overall though, the forecast looks on track with a warm day in store across much of the forecast area. Temperatures in the east will depend on the exact timing of the boundary and associated wind shift, with cooler easterly winds off the lake likely north of the front.

DDV

SHORT TERM

Issued 1130 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Quiet tonight with some high clouds pushing in later tonight. High pressure will continue to push out with lower pressure nudging in from the west. Modest southerly winds will continue overnight into Monday morning. A piece of the low pressure will eject off the main low tonight and drive the front southward into parts of southern WI into Monday morning. This will likely bring a fairly sharp temperature gradient through Monday as breezy southwest winds to the south will push temperatures into the upper 60s to mid 70s at least with areas north of the front working in conjunction with the lake breeze will bring areas in east central WI and near the lake to as low as the low 40s to mid 50s. However, there should be time in the morning for most areas to warm up to the 60s before the impact of the front/lake breeze will be felt.

Into Monday late afternoon/evening, lapse rates will improve aloft with increased WAA and moisture in the low levels and with the warm front in the area and some shortwave energy aloft we should have enough of a trigger mechanism to bring some scattered showers with some storm potential Monday night. CAMs show some isolated convection and some showers but overall not a ton of activity during this period. Given instability around 750-1250 J/kg and strong deep layer shear of 45-60 kts the environment should be there to support elevated strong to severe convection with a risk primarily for hail. However, the trigger may be on the weaker side generally with some additional capping aloft which may reduce the risk for more widespread convection, but any storms that develop should carry a hail risk. The best chance is generally during the late evening with risk decreasing overnight as instability aloft decreases as midlevel lapse rates fall.

CAMs generally support quiet conditions into Tuesday morning though we still cannot rule out some showery activity and even a stray storm, depending on the position of the warm front. Warm front may nudge back north a bit overnight into Tuesday as the surface low pushes in. In any case, particularly if we can get some morning clearing, we will see the next chance for storms develop toward west central WI forming along and ahead of the front somewhat in the base of the surface low pressure that will be pushing through central WI. Still plenty of uncertainty regarding when this front begins to push through but CAMs suggest the best chance for storms Tuesday morning will be in central WI as the surface low pushes through. Increasing chances into the late morning and early afternoon with the cold front. The cold front will likely be needed to bring the lift necessary to bring convection given some significant capping ahead of the front with limited forcing and CAMs generally support this idea with CAMs showing developing showers/storms along the front. However, storms in CAMs are not robust and may still be showing signs of battling some capping issues. Should these capping issues be eroded or overcome by the front storms would be expected, likely surface based, with severe storms possible. All hazards would be possible though the primary risks appear to be hail and wind given instability over 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 40kts or so.

CAMs also suggest the front should push out by the late afternoon to early evening with some uncertainty there at this time. However there will be chances for some post frontal precip with some shortwave activity aloft as well as some WAA in the low to mid levels that if we can maintain some moisture may be able to bring some showers in the post frontal region. By the mid to late evening however, expect things to dry out as moisture pushes out and high pressure and drier air swing in from the north west. Dry conditions expected Tuesday night.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 1130 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

There is some more clarity with the first low pressure system timing and placement as it shifts northeast through the region Wednesday night into Thursday night. There remains some uncertainty with the second low for Friday into Saturday.

Southwest flow at 500 mb should prevail Wednesday into Friday across the region. There should be an initial low pressure system that shifts northeast from the south central High Plains Wednesday night through the Middle Mississippi River Valley Thursday and into lower Michigan or further east Thursday night into Friday. Ensemble means generally support a surface low track to the southeast of southern Wisconsin. This would support strong warm air advection at 850 mb pushing into the area Wednesday night and northward into Thursday, accompanied by a strong low level jet nose.

These features would bring a good amount of Gulf moisture into the area, resulting in a solid area of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. Forecast soundings from several models and ensembles are showing a fairly robust signal for a period of light snow Wednesday evening, with sleet and freezing rain pushing north into and through the area later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, until low level thermal profiles support all rain by Thursday afternoon. The rain would linger Thursday afternoon before ending by later Thursday night, as colder and drier air moves into the area with the system shifting to the east.

Ensembles have fairly high probabilities (greater than 60 to 80 percent) for greater than 0.50 inches of liquid precipitation. They also have probabilities of greater than 30 to 50 percent for greater than 1.00 inch. Temperatures may vary greatly across the area with this system, as ensembles have fairly large spreads in possible ranges. Given the QPF probability values and temperature profiles, travel impacts may occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the snow, sleet and freezing rain possibilities. Keep up with the forecast for this period.

Ensembles are a little more in agreement with a second low pressure system deepening as it shifts north northeast through the Lake Michigan region Friday night into Saturday evening. The low track in the ensembles generally shifts through parts of Wisconsin on Saturday into Saturday evening, with a deep and closed 500 mb low possibly supporting this system. The warm air advection ahead of this low may keep precipitation types mainly rain, with some storms possible. However, it is too far out yet in the future to have more confidence in precipitation types. Temperatures will once again be dependent on the low track and timing, with ensemble spreads still fairly large this far out as well.

It then looks drier for the latter portions of next weekend into early the following week, as high pressure moves through.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 654 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A mix of mid and high level clouds early this morning should give way to mostly sunny skies by mid-morning. It does look like there could be some scattered to broken cloud cover between 4 and 6 kft forming in the east this afternoon as a lake enhanced frontal boundary drops in from the northeast. Conditions in the east will depend on the exact timing of the boundary and associated wind shift, with cooler easterly winds off the lake likely north of the front. Southerly winds will prevail south of the front.

There is a chance for showers and storms in the vicinity of the warm front this evening into tonight, though confidence is on the low side with the exact location and coverage of the storms. Any storms that do form would have the potential to be strong to severe, with large hail the main severe threat.

Lower clouds are likely to settle into the forecast area north of the warm front tonight. Additionally, a period of low level wind shear is likely south of the front from mid-evening today into Tuesday morning.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 1130 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Modest southwest winds continue as a front begins to approach the waters from the north. The front will gradually advance south across Lake Michigan tonight through Tuesday. This will result in generally east-northeast winds across the northern half of the lake with southerly winds further south. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the slow-moving front, with a few stronger storms possible Monday night and once again on Tuesday. Large hail would be the primary threat in any stronger storms.

Winds will trend northerly behind the departing cold front Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Will be monitoring trends for a few gusts approaching gale force Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the current expectation being for any such gusts to be isolated. 1040 mb high pressure will shift from Ontario to Quebec through the late week time period as 1010 mb low pressure builds into the Ohio River Valley, allowing winds to trend east-northeasterly. Will need to watch for additional isolated gale potential Thursday into Friday as low pressure passes near or over Lake Michigan, with the continued expectation for any gusts to be too sparse to justify headlines. Will nevertheless be monitoring trends into this week. Additional rain and snow will accompany the approaching/passing area of low pressure Thursday into next weekend.

A few wind gusts may approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds in nearshore zones this afternoon & evening, but aren't expected to be widespread enough to warrant headlines at this time. Trends will continue to be monitored into this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday evening/night. A few strong to severe storms remain possible, with large hail and gusty winds being the primary hazards. Additional showers and storms are possible Tuesday as a cold front crosses nearshore zones. Winds will become gusty behind the front Tuesday evening into Wednesday, and are expected to remain elevated through the end of the week. Anticipate that Small Craft Advisories will become necessary during this part of the period, with the need for headlines being addressed in coming updates.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.