textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through Saturday afternoon for a High Swim Risk at beaches in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties. The beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties have a high swim risk beginning this afternoon. - Expect a gradual warming trend through the Memorial Day weekend.

- Areas of sprinkles are possible today followed by light rain chances or drizzle (20-30%) over se WI tonight. The very light rain or drizzle could linger into Saturday morning. Rain chances of 20-40% are then forecast for Saturday night and Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued 543 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Weak vorticity maximums and mid level warm advection will maintain cloud cover much of the day. Sprinkles or very light showers will be possible as RAP and NAM forecast soundings show very marginal elevated CAPE. Temps will be warmer today given warm advection, but lake areas will still only rise into the 50s via ely winds.

The persistent ely winds and building waves will result in a High Swim Risk for the Lake MI beaches today into Saturday. Thus a Beach Hazard Statement continues.

For tnt, higher low to mid level RH will arrive from the south as a shortwave trough and wave of low pressure tracks from the lower MS river Valley into the nrn Ohio Valley. The nw periphery of very light rain or drizzle may clip se WI (20-30%) and possibly linger into Sat AM. Much of Sat will then be cloudy especially over ern WI. High temps will range in the 50s at the Lake MI shoreline to lower 70s over south central WI.

Gehring

SHORT TERM

Issued 1142 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Tonight through Saturday:

Mid and high level clouds will persist tonight through Friday, with dry easterly low level flow keeping it dry across southern Wisconsin. Temps will remain a few degrees below normal through tomorrow.

Surface low pressure is expected to approach the area from the southwest Friday night, passing by to the southeast on Saturday. The farther southeast low track has continued per the latest models, with the bulk of the moisture and deeper expected to miss the forecast area. The best chance for some light rain showers Fri night into early Sat will be across the southeast half of the forecast area. Despite the lingering clouds, temps should return to around normal Saturday, except for cooler conditions near the lake under onshore winds.

A high swim risk continues into Saturday afternoon for Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha counties, expanding northward through Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties Friday afternoon through into Saturday afternoon. Life threatening waves and currents are expected.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 1142 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Saturday night through Thursday:

A shortwave may bring a few showers to southern Wisconsin Saturday night into Sunday, with a rumble or two of thunder not out of the question. Sunday night into Monday looks mainly dry under surface high pressure and as upper level riding begins to build in from the west. Still a small chance though that an area of showers/storms comes through the top of the ridge on Monday. Confidence is on the lower end for any precip, so kept the forecast dry for now. Above normal temps are expected for Memorial Day along with somewhat higher dewpoints as well.

Warm temps and higher dewpoints will persist into mid-week, with some instability suggesting the potential for more shower/storm chances if a wave or two pushes through the area.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 543 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions today into this evening. Mid level clouds will be present with areas of sprinkles. MVFR Cigs will then overspread much of srn WI from se WI toward south central WI late tonight and Sat AM. Areas of very light rain and drizzle will be possible. Areas of Cigs below 1 kft over se WI for Sat AM.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 1142 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

High pressure of 30.4 inches centered over the upper Great Lakes will gradually shift eastward through the end of the week. Persistent east to northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected through Friday, with winds becoming northerly on Saturday as low pressure of 29.9 inches lifts northeast to western Lake Erie. Winds should increase a bit Friday afternoon into Saturday, though winds will remain below gale force. Southerly winds are then expected to develop early next week.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist south of North Point Light through tonight, gradually expanding northward to Sheboygan Friday. The advisory conditions will the continue into Saturday afternoon.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Beach Hazards Statement...Wiz060-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 PM Saturday.

Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 PM Friday to 4 PM Saturday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...4 PM Friday to 4 PM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644 until 4 PM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Saturday.