textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills below zero degrees will continue through Friday, with overnight minimum wind chills in the negative teens each night. - A few areas may see wind chills as low as negative 20 degrees for a brief period late tonight into early Wednesday morning, but these conditions are not expected to last more than a couple hours.

- Chances (20 to 40 percent) for lake effect snow showers develop across Lake Michigan counties Thursday night and may continue through Saturday morning. There is potential for a couple inches of snow if snow bands persist onshore, but confidence in exact timing and placement is low at this time.

SHORT TERM

Issued 346 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Tonight through Thursday:

Northwesterly winds will continue through the remainder of this afternoon, becoming less gusty overnight as parent low pressure exits into Quebec. However, expect sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph as high pressure builds into the northern Plains, keeping wind chills in the negative 15 to negative 20 degree range late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Although a few spots may hit Cold Weather Advisory criteria (negative 20 degrees and below), not anticipating any area to see criteria for longer than a couple hours, and not anticipating this to be widespread. Therefore, will continue to monitor but are not expecting to need a Cold Weather Advisory tonight. Lows in the negative single digits are expected.

Wednesday, expect Arctic high pressure to nudge into southern Wisconsin, with highs in the low teens expected. Winds will remain northwesterly and breezy, keeping wind chills below zero degrees throughout the day. Winds will become lighter Wednesday night, with clear skies allowing for plenty of radiational cooling. Expect lows in the negative single digits, with perhaps areas in southwestern to central Wisconsin seeing lows in the negative teens. Again expecting wind chills to fall into the negative 15 to negative 20 degree range, although lower winds will likely lead to fewer spots getting to negative 20 degrees.

Thursday, low pressure developing in the southern Plains will tilt winds to northerly and light while high pressure in the northern Plains strengthens and noses into Wisconsin. Expect clear skies and highs around 10 degrees.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 346 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Thursday night into Friday morning, expecting wind chills in the negative teens once again across the majority of southern Wisconsin.

As low pressure in the southern Plains organizes Thursday night and progresses eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley, expecting winds over Lake Michigan to shift northeasterly while northwest winds linger over inland regions with high pressure to the northwest. With these factors in play, agree with model portrayal of a steady lake effect band across central portions of Lake Michigan developing overnight and potentially wobbling westward to impact Lake Michigan lakeshore counties. Timing and exact placement of this wobble is still uncertain due to the coarseness of the model resolution at this range, but with relatively warm water and a very cold airmass cannot ignore the signal. This band looks to linger through Friday night as low pressure slowly propagates eastward through the Southeast U.S. and high pressure strengthens over the northern Plains, keeping the convergence zone firmly in place. Eventually the band will permanently retreat eastward (Saturday morning at the latest), with a few inches of total accumulation in some areas along the lakeshore by this point.

High pressure slides back into the central and southern Plains Saturday, bringing northerly winds and clearing skies across southern Wisconsin. A clipper system developing on the northern edges of this high will propagate eastward through Minnesota on Sunday, allowing for southwesterly winds in southern Wisconsin and highs in the 20s above zero. This clipper then propagates through central Wisconsin, bringing widespread steady snow to southern and central Wisconsin Sunday night into Monday. Quiet weather with lows in the single digits and highs in the 20s is expected Monday through Tuesday.

MH

AVIATION

Issued 346 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions and clearing skies expected this evening, with clear skies and steady northwest winds around 10 kt expected throughout tonight. A few clouds in the upper levels may develop going into Wednesday morning, with a few clouds around 2000 ft near Lake Michigan as well. Gusts up to 20 kt develop Wednesday afternoon, diminishing again Wednesday evening. All winds remain northwesterly through Wednesday night. Expect VFR conditions Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night as well.

MH

MARINE

Issued 346 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Elevated waves and cold temperatures will support heavy freezing spray across the open waters through this evening, with gusty northwest winds keep conditions hazardous for small craft in nearshore waters of southern Wisconsin. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect until 6 PM CST for the northern third, and until 9 PM CST for the southern two thirds. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 6 PM CST for the southern Wisconsin nearshore zones. Patchy moderate to heavy freezing spray is possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night for the southern half of the open waters.

Northwesterly winds will slowly diminish this evening and tonight as low pressure in eastern Ontario exits into Quebec and high pressure builds through the northern Plains. High pressure will linger across the northern Plains through the week, keeping winds northwesterly. High pressure will strengthen into Friday as weak low pressure progresses through the Middle Mississippi Valley, turning winds briefly northerly to even northeasterly. Waves may build to Small Craft Advisory criteria during this time. Winds shift back to north-northwesterly and increase Friday night. Moderate to heavy freezing spray will likely develop once again over open waters as northwesterly winds continue through Saturday.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870- LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 9 PM Tuesday.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 until 6 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Tuesday.