textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Gale Warning issued for Tuesday for all of the open waters of Lake MI due to southerly gales.

- Brief burst of light snow Tuesday afternoon with a cold frontal passage. This will likely affect the late afternoon and early evening commute.

- Snow chances only 20-30 percent Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the track of a wave of low pressure trending farther to the south.

UPDATE

Issued 610 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

As a sfc ridge moves overhead later this evening through tonight winds will decrease and conditions will remain dry overnight. WAA and southerly winds will set up behind this high pressure as it exits to the east early Tuesday morning. No major changes to the forest tonight.

Patterson

SHORT TERM

Issued 134 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

This afternoon through Thursday:

Broken stratocumulus clouds are only lingering over east central WI early this afternoon, but will also dissipate through the day. Polar high pressure over the Upper MS River Valley will move across srn WI this evening followed by the onset of lgt sly winds and warm advection. Low temps should be able to drop into the teens before the clouds or sly winds deters the cooling.

Breezy sswly winds and warm advection will occur on Tue as deepening low pressure tracks from nw MN into the nrn Great Lakes as a 992 mb low. This will boost high temps back above freezing with middle to upper 30s forecast. The cold front will then pass late afternoon and early evening and be accompanied by a narrow band of light snow. The left exit region of the upper jet and PVA will provide upper support to low to mid level frontogenesis giving confidence that the troposphere will briefly saturate. An hour or two of 1-2SM light snow can be expected. Nwly winds and cold advection to then prevail Tue nt- Wed, while low pressure will fill and reach Srn Quebec by late Wed. A weak sfc ridge will then reside over the region for Wed nt-Thu but 20-30 percent chances for light snow are forecast as a shortwave trough and band of snow likely passes to the south, but cannot completely rule out the snow over srn WI.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 134 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Thursday through Monday:

The models depict strong cyclogenesis from Manitoba to near James Bay, Canada from early Fri to 12Z Sat. Breezy swly winds and warm advection is expected to boost temps into the 50s over srn WI on Fri, followed by a cold front and low temps mainly in the 20s for Sat AM. 20 percent chances for light snow are forecast on Sat with highs in the 30s.

There is then uncertainty among the extended models on the track and timing of a wave of low pressure from the srn Great Plains into the Ohio Valley, and whether any snow can spread into srn WI. The track and strength of a large polar high across srn Canada and the nrn Great Lakes will play a role in the eventual evolution of this system and snow chances. 30-40 percent chances for snow are forecast at this time.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 610 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will persist through Tuesday morning. High pressure will move through the state late this evening into tonight bringing light and variable winds. There are some scattered upper level clouds traversing the Great Lakes region during this time. Winds become southerly early Tuesday morning as the high exits to the east. Cloud cover will then increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system and cold front. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening as snow showers move in. This will be due to some lower ceilings around 2-4 kft and visibilities around 3-6 SM with the snow. The best chances for measurable snow will be across central Wisconsin, but all of southern Wisconsin can expect at least flurries/light snow. A dusting to a couple tenths of an inch of snow will be possible. East central terminals (ie: SBM) could see up to an inch, if the snow lasts a couple hours. Snow rates will be around 0.5 inch per hour or less. This will be a wet packing snow. Breezy south to southwest winds are expected ahead of the approaching cold front. Behind the front breezy west to west- northwest winds are expected through Tuesday night.

Patterson

MARINE

Issued 134 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Brisk northerly winds will gradually diminish into this evening as high pressure of 30.7 inches over the Upper MS River Valley moves across Lake Michigan tonight. Light and variable winds are expected tonight as the high passes.

Southerly gales are then expected to develop late Tuesday morning and last through the afternoon for all of Lake Michigan. A Gale Warning has been issued for this time period. The southerly gales will develop as strengthening low pressure around 29.3 inches tracks from northern Minnesota on Monday through the northern Great Lakes Monday night.

Winds will shift more west northwest behind the low and associated cold front for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds will remain brisk but under gale force.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 AM Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Monday.