textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures remaining 10-20+ degrees above normal through Wednesday.

- Widespread rain expected (~50-80+% chances) Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Low chances (10-20%) for precip linger into Wednesday night, with some snow possibly mixing in (especially further north).

- Additional precipitation chances (~25-45%) Thursday into Friday. Both rain and snow are possible.

UPDATE

Issued 615 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Perhaps some patchy fog tonight in far east central WI but otherwise the forecast remains on track with no concerns.

Kuroski

SHORT TERM

Issued 140 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tonight through Tuesday:

Warm and dry weather continue through this period, with inland high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s each day, and even warmer (mid 50s to around 60) for a brief time Monday as southwesterly WAA kicks in. Lakeshore areas should remain roughly 5 to 10 degrees cooler than inland areas (but still plenty warm for this time of year) due to lake breeze circulations, with a synoptic easterly breeze enhancing that cooling effect on Tuesday (and spreading it further inland). All of this warmth is driven by ridging in the jet over the Midwestern CONUS, and the amplitude of it will peak on Monday, pause Tuesday, then break down shortly thereafter. To put these temperatures into perspective, the climatological normal high temperatures for this time of February (in southern WI) are generally in the low to mid 30s, and we're forecasting temperatures 10-25 degrees (or locally higher) above this mark.

With skies expected to be mostly clear for much of the overnight hours tonight, we cannot completely rule out some patchy fog developing (similar to what we observed in a few areas this past morning). Some scattered to broken cloud cover is currently expected to interfere with radiational cooling / inhibit fog potential Sunday night and Monday night.

Sheppard

LONG TERM

Issued 140 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Wednesday through Saturday:

50-80% precip chances remain in the forecast Tuesday night (tapering down into Wednesday) as strong low pressure originating over the northern plains tracks eastward into our region. Many models / ensemble members give this system a double-barreled shape on the surface pressure fields as it tracks eastward into MN/WI Wednesday, making the event somewhat difficult to predict, yet we can confidently call for an 'all rain' event for the Tuesday night / Wednesday phase of the event. A few rumbles of thunder remain possible as well. A brief resurgence of the warmth (highs in the mid 50s to around 60) is expected in the daytime Wednesday due to strong southwesterly WAA. Going into Wednesday night, precip chances decrease to 10-20% (highest further north) with only weak / wrap-around precip lingering on the back side of the system. Some light snow may mix in for this phase of the event, but again, minimal chances / minimal impact if applicable.

From Thursday onwards, predictability falls off completely. Wide / zonal troughing in the jet allows a separate (central Great Plains) low pressure system to develop Thursday and track northeastward into our region Thursday night. Models have phasing disagreements, particularly pertaining to the interaction of the prior system (lingering / spinning down overhead) with the new system (developing over the central plains and tracking inbound). There are many ways that this could play out, but our best guess is light rain late Thursday, followed by a NW to SE transition from rain to light accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday.

Behind the late-week system, high temperatures are likely to settle back into the 30s (Fri / Sat) as a wide / zonal trough briefly takes over the upper air pattern.

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 615 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Some patchy dense fog may come on shore in far east central WI this evening but otherwise VFR conditions are expected across southern WI with light southerly winds becoming northeast into Sunday.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 140 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Synopsis / Open Water Zones:

Light and variable winds continue over the lake today, turning south to around 10 knots tonight in advance of a weak cold front. Winds turn northwest behind the front post dawn Sunday morning then go back to light and variable late Sunday. Low pressure around 29.6 inches tracks east across Ontario Canada Monday, leading to a south breeze over the lake. Winds turn north and decelerate behind the associated cold front Monday night.

Strong low pressure develops over the northern plains on Tuesday, leading to accelerating east winds over the lake. Gusty east to southeasterly winds are expected Tuesday night as the system tracks eastward into Minnesota / Wisconsin, and may veer southwestward over southern portions of the lake Wednesday morning / afternoon as the low builds further east. Gales will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Forecast predictability drops dramatically from Wednesday night through Thursday. The aforementioned low pressure may interact with a second area of low pressure tracking northeast from the central Plains during this period, with periods of gusty winds / elevated waves remaining likely. Gusty northwest winds are then looking likely Thursday night into Friday as both low pressure systems depart eastward.

Nearshore Zones:

Calm and quiet conditions continue today through Tuesday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to arrive Tuesday afternoon as increasing east winds lead to building waves. A combination of gusty winds and elevated waves are then expected to allow Small Craft Advisory conditions to persist through late this week.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.