textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remaining 5-15+ degrees above normal Friday through the middle of next week.

- Areas of fog possible late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Can't rule out a few slick spots on any untreated surfaces where fog develops.

- Widespread rain chances (~30-60+%) arrive late Tuesday through Thursday. Can't rule out some thunder Tuesday night through Wednesday or some wet snow late Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1148 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Rest of Tonight through Friday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: High pressure is centered from Lower Michigan to the Ohio River Valley late this evening, resulting in either variable or light east-southeast winds across southern Wisconsin. Tied to broad warm advection & lingering convergence near the 700 mb level, a narrow band of low-mid level clouds continues to linger over portions of east-central and southeast Wisconsin, keeping temperatures a couple degrees milder compared to areas under mostly clear skies. The aforementioned area of high pressure will continue to migrate southeast into the Appalachians on Friday, allowing southwesterly winds to take hold across all of southern Wisconsin. Said winds will advect a mild & modestly more moist air mass into the region from Central Plains, with high temps ranging from the mid- upper 40s northeast to upper 40s and low 50s further south and west. A shortwave ridge is progged to cross the western Great Lakes Friday night into the predawn hours Saturday, pulling a second area of surface high pressure into southern Wisconsin in the process. The arriving high will result in weakening winds Friday night, allowing for radiational cooling and some potential for areas of fog during the predawn hours.

Friday night: Will be monitoring for possible fog development through the predawn hours as high pressure moves in and winds taper. Extent of potential fog development remains uncertain as of this forecast, with the timing of tapering winds & influence of any upper level clouds both playing key roles in fog formation and coverage. Uncertainties aside, did note a consistent enough signal for at least some fog development in the 00Z guidance suite to justify mentions in the evening forecast update. Will continue to monitor trends regarding preferred locations, coverage, and thickness of potential fog over the coming updates. In the event fog forms, a few slick spots would be possible as temperatures fall to and below the freezing mark.

Quigley

LONG TERM

Issued 1148 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

Synopsis: Mainly southwest to southeasterly low level winds will persist Saturday into the middle of next week, allowing for an anomalously mild air mass to remain entrenched across the Upper Midwest. Said air mass will result in above-normal high temperatures areawide Saturday through Wednesday. Warmest overall time periods will occur when winds veer southwesterly, with modestly cooler conditions possible closer to Lake Michigan on days where winds back out of the southeast. Monday is currently favored as the warmest day of the period. Weak disturbances will traverse the US-Canada border Saturday through Monday, possibly pulling a pair of weak surface fronts into the area Saturday night into Sunday & once more on Monday. Dry conditions are anticipated during each potential frontal passage, with meager baroclinicity across the boundaries leading to negligible impacts on temperatures following their passages. A much more organized upper disturbance remains forecast to eject into the Northern Plains on Tuesday, encouraging surface cyclogenesis in the Dakotas. The low is progged to advance east toward Wisconsin Tuesday night through Wednesday with its parent upper wave, bringing widespread rain chances back to the region. Precipitation chances could continue Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front lingers in the vicinity of southern Wisconsin, with cooling temperatures supporting some potential for a wet rain-snow mix.

Monday: Currently looking at this time frame to be the mildest of the upcoming warm stretch, with brisk southwesterly winds forecast areawide. Current forecast from the NBM depicts widespread highs in the 50s away from Lake Michigan, with some potential (~50-60%+) for mid-upper 50s moving further inland. Whether the inland warmth will be able to challenge records (57 at MSN in 1981) remains uncertain, though any further upward trends would lead to increased confidence in new record highs. Will continue to be monitoring guidance over the coming forecasts.

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday: Widespread rain chances return to southern Wisconsin as an upper disturbance and surface low move across the state. Given antecedent & continuing warmth, current expectation is for precipitation to remain as all rain into Wednesday afternoon. Composite soundings from the LREF (combined GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles) do hint at some weak instability Tuesday night & potentially once again on Wednesday afternoon, so some thunder can't be ruled out. Given considerable lingering spread regarding the precise track, strength, and timing of the passing surface low, it remains far too early to speculate on the potential for any hazards beyond general thunder during this part of the period. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming forecasts & provide updates if necessary.

Wednesday evening through Thursday: Low pressure will be in the process of moving east of the area, though lift from a lingering cold front & second potential upper disturbance will support continued precipitation chances over southern Wisconsin. With temperatures beginning to cool along/behind the lingering front, could see some rain-snow mix or a changeover to all snow at some point during this time frame. It remains too early to offer any specifics regarding possible accumulation. Will continue to monitor trends in coming forecasts.

Quigley

AVIATION

Issued 1148 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR flight categories prevail areawide late this evening, and are expected to continue through the duration of the 24 hour forecast period. Deck of low-mid level clouds based near FL080 has lingered longer than initially anticipated near the Lake Michigan shoreline, with ongoing trends being accounted for near-term in the 06Z forecast. Anticipate that said clouds will gradually decay through the predawn hours, though trends will continue to be monitored tonight. Winds will shift southwesterly Friday morning at all terminals as high pressure continues to move east through the Ohio River Valley. Winds will taper Friday night into Saturday morning as a second area of high pressure moves in from the west, resulting in light/variable winds near and after midnight. Will be monitoring for potential FG development during the predawn hours Saturday, with peak potential just beyond the current 24 hour forecast period. Have inserted some VIS reductions & BR mentions nearing the conclusion of the 30 hour period at MKE, with the expectation that similar additions may be needed at other sites in the 12Z update. Will continue to monitor trends regarding preferred development locations & thickness of potential FG over the next 12-24 hours.

Quigley

MARINE

Issued 1148 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

1025 mb high pressure is shifting east of Lake Michigan late this evening, resulting in light east to southeast winds across the open waters. Winds will veer southerly through the second half of the overnight hours as said high moves into the Ohio River Valley. Winds will continue to veer through Friday, with southwesterly readings becoming established as 1006 mb low pressure moves from the southern Hudson Bay into Quebec. Gusts between 25-30 knots are possible over the northern third of Lake Michigan Friday morning, though gales are not anticipated. Winds will trend light and variable Friday evening into Saturday as 1022 mb high pressure approaches and ultimately crosses the open waters. Winds will veer south to southwesterly ahead of a weak cold front Saturday night. The front is forecast to cross the waters early Sunday morning, bringing a brief northwesterly wind shift during the afternoon hours. Winds will shift back to the southwest Sunday night through Monday, when 1004 mb low pressure is forecast to develop over northern Ontario.

Stronger low pressure near 990 mb will form over the northern Great Plains during the day on Tuesday, resulting in increasing southeasterly winds over Lake Michigan. Winds will continue to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as the low approaches and eventually crosses Lake Michigan. The low will progress east of the waters Wednesday afternoon & evening, resulting in a gusty east- northeast wind shift Wednesday night through Thursday morning. A few gale force gusts are possible Tuesday night through Thursday morning, with trends being monitored for possible headlines over coming forecasts. Rain and snow will accompany the approaching passing/low Tuesday evening through Thursday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Pockets of light to moderate freezing spray are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning over the northern half of the waters.

Largely benign conditions prevail in nearshore zones through the beginning of next week. Winds and waves will steadily increase ahead of approaching low pressure Tuesday night through Thursday, resulting in a likely period of Small Craft Advisory conditions through the middle week period. The need for potential headlines will be evaluated as this portion of the period draws closer. Rain and eventually some rain-snow mix will accompany the approaching/passing low Tuesday night through Thursday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.