textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional chances for flurries/light snow this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning (10-40% chances).

- Breezy north to northwest winds Sunday into Monday, particularly gusty over Lake Michigan (gales will be possible).

UPDATE

Issued 540 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

No major changes to the current forecast though it looks likely clouds may dominate most of the day with very short periods of sun possible early this morning to the west and possible in the far east for a few hours but clouds will fill though areas in it appears. Otherwise high pressure will gradually start to push into today with modest northwest winds.

Kuroski

SHORT TERM

Issued 1205 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Today through Sunday:

A weak surface pressure trough (lingering in the wake of the departed low pressure) draped across Michigan will work with polar high pressure building into south central Canada to drive a light northwest breeze, which intensifies into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens. As the surface pressure trough dissolves and sags southward tonight into Sunday morning, it interacts with a passing upper trough to produce chances for flurries, or even a dusting of light snow (mainly towards east-central WI). A stray flurry or snow shower later in the day on Sunday cannot be ruled out either. The latest model guidance suggests the grand total snowfall from this activity ought to be less than an inch and minimally impactful.

Sheppard

LONG TERM

Issued 1205 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Sunday night through Friday:

Arctic high pressure continues to build southward into early next week, centered over western Ontario Canada with a ridge of surface high pressure reaching south into the eastern Dakotas / MN. The pressure gradient between this system and a winter storm along the Atlantic coast will allow a north to northwest breeze to continue over our region Sunday night into Monday, along with high temperatures around 10 degrees below seasonal norms. The arctic high rapidly breaks down through the course of Monday, with what's left of it passing overhead as a surface pressure ridge Monday evening. Light and variable winds Monday evening turn south into Tuesday, allowing temperatures to moderate upwards.

Plenty of model uncertainty going into mid next week, with two separate clipper systems tracking eastward across the region. Ensemble IQRs for daytime high temperature range from around seasonal norms to upwards of 10 degrees above normal depending on system track and timing. As such, both rain and snow are possible with these systems. The first of these systems is slated to track north of or near to our region Tuesday, with light snow as the favored precip type due to the antecedent cold weather. Better QPF / snow potential is found further north and east in the CWA, given the ensemble mean system track centered that direction. Note that even the more aggressive ECMWF / GEFS ensemble members (90th percentile for example) are only allowing an inch or two of snow to fall, with some other members struggling to produce measurable accumulations period. Predictability falls even lower for the second system regarding the track and intensity, which may move through Wednesday or Thursday. The only common thread in most guidance is for a relatively fast moving (clipper) system to unfold, as opposed to a more organized Colorado low or panhandle hook. This should keep precip chances and QPF under control.

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 550 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

MVFR CIGS appears likely to affect most of southern WI for much of the day now today. We continue to see mostly clear skies in far eastern WI but that is expected to fill in with clouds given the current trends. The question really becomes how much will clouds raise as the sun raises today. Particularly to the east, CIGS will hang around 3000 ft and with warming could lift to VFR. Some guidance suggest much of the region could lift to VFR but even in that case would likely remain borderline. So there remains uncertainty in exactly how the clouds progress and perhaps if we see some clearing from the west this morning. Otherwise clouds will dominate the TAF period with modest northwest winds today. There is a chance for some light snow in far eastern WI late tonight but no real impacts are expected. Breezier northwest expect Sunday.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 1205 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Northwest to north winds will continue across the lake into early next week as a strong polar high pressure builds southward into south central Canada. As the high draws closer, the pressure gradient will tighten Sunday into Monday. Gales will be possible, especially Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Light and variable winds are then expected into Monday evening as the polar high weakens and drifts overhead. A modest south breeze develops Tuesday as weak high pressure drifts east of the region and low pressure develops west of the lake.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Sunday to 3 PM Monday.