textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue across southern Wisconsin through this morning. Blizzard conditions are forecast now through midday as a band of heavy snow at rates to 1"/hr combines with northerly wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and lead to visibilities less than 1/4 mile. These conditions are expected to affect the Monday morning commute. Avoid travel if possible!

- Snow will taper off mid-morning to midday from southwest to northeast, but blowing snow will continue into the afternoon hours. - A Storm Warning is in effect for the northern two thirds of Lake Michigan and a Gale Warning is in effect for the southern third through late tonight, and a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect early this morning through Tuesday morning.

- Light accumulating snowfall will likely (50-80% chances) impact the Wednesday morning commute. Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible into Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued 650 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The current forecast remains on track. Currently seeing two heavy snow bands work their way across the eastern half of the CWA. They are capable of producing 1 in/hr snow rates. However further west seeing the snow begin to lighten up. However, blowing and drifting snow will create continued lower visibilities through the morning and linger into the afternoon.

The big question this morning will be how quickly will the blizzard condition last and if conditions will improve later this morning. Thus will be looking into potentially adjust end times and/or downgrades to the current winter headlines.

Wagner

SHORT TERM

Issued 124 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Today through tonight:

Northerly winds are currently gusting between 40 and 50 MPH across the majority of southern Wisconsin, as the main band of heavy snow develops across south-central Wisconsin. This snow will be capable of falling at rates to 1"/hr (HREF probabilities between 60 and 90%) as gusty winds continue. Blizzard conditions are expected to continue through the morning commute, with Blizzard Warnings in effect now through 4 PM CDT. As the heaviest band exits from south to north midday, gusty winds will continue to produce blowing snow through the afternoon. Winds will taper off from west to east during the midday through afternoon hours, and Blizzard Warnings may be able to be canceled early, especially for southwestern Wisconsin.

Winds continue to diminish through tonight, with a dense, cold airmass settling in overnight into Tuesday. Minimum temperatures in the single digits near Lake Michigan and near zero inland are expected. Although winds will be lighter, they will not be calm, and wind chills will be in the negative teens overnight into Tuesday morning.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 124 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

High pressure to the south of the area should bring dry conditions to the area Tuesday. Warm air advection should develop during this time, as winds shift from the west to south. This should help bring increasing clouds into the area. Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals, with highs in the lower to middle 20s.

Northwest flow at 500 mb Tuesday night into early Wednesday will allow for a modest shortwave trough to slide southeast across the area. There will be a period of more focused warm air advection during this period, with forecast soundings showing fairly deep saturation with a relatively small dendrite growth zone. Most ensemble members have at least light measurable QPF occurring during this time.

Thus, there continues to be 50 to 80 percent chances for light snow Tuesday night across the area, with the highest chances in western parts of the area. There is some potential for ice crystals to be lost toward Wednesday morning, so there may be some light freezing drizzle that could occur as the light snow winds down. For now, will keep it mainly light snow in the forecast. The ensemble members are showing enough QPF for at least one half inch with some being over an inch, so light snow accumulations are possible, which may affect the early Wednesday morning commute.

There may be some chances (around 20 to 30 percent) for light rain with a little light snow or light freezing rain/drizzle Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, as enough deep moisture interacts with modest warm air advection and some weak differential CVA. Ice crystals may be lost at times, so some of that light freezing rain/drizzle may occur.

West northwest flow at 500 mb is then generally expected through the rest of the forecast period, with a general warming trend per ensemble members. This period appears to be relatively quiet, though there may be low pressure moving through the region toward Sunday.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 650 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Lower flight conditions will continue through the morning with the ongoing falling and blowing snow. Expect visibilities to bounce between IFR and MVFR through the remainder of the morning given the persisting blowing snow. However falling snow will gradually taper from southwest to northeast later this morning into the afternoon. Generally expect all the snow to end between 18-21z for southern WI. Strong winds will fall below 30kt through the evening northwesterly winds will slowly diminish overnight tonight as skies will clear and become VFR. Expect sustained winds around 12 kt by daybreak Tuesday.

Wagner

MARINE

Issued 124 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Low pressure of 29.0 inches has stalled over southern Lower Michigan, bringing northerly storm force gusts to the northern two thirds of the lake and gales to the southern third. Heavy snow will drop visibilities across the entire late into mid- morning today. A frigid airmass will spread southward early this morning, bringing heavy freezing spray to the entire lake. Low pressure will gradually exit into Ontario this afternoon, allowing for storm force winds to diminish to gales this evening. Gales and heavy freezing spray will then continue into Tuesday morning. Winds will slowly diminish through Tuesday, shifting to southerly ahead of another system Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds shift to southwesterly as the system progresses through Ontario Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then to northwesterly on Thursday as a cold front progresses southeastward through the region.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Blizzard Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066- WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 PM Monday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Tuesday.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646- LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870- LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 11 AM Tuesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...10 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday.

Storm Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until 10 PM Monday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM Tuesday.

Storm Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 AM Monday.