textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering light snow/flurries for east central and southeastern WI into the early evening. - Brisk tonight with sub-zero wind chills.

- Chances (40-70%) for accumulating snow, generally less than an inch, across east-central WI Tuesday afternoon/evening and may impact evening commute. Wintry mix possible further south.

- Additional snow chances possible Wednesday night Thursday (30-50%).

UPDATE

Issued 559 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Breezy winds and flurries continue across southern Wisconsin early this evening. A dusting of snow remains possible with the intermittent flurries this evening, but with the blowing snow its going to be difficult to measure. As high pressure builds in from the northeast (Northern Plains/southern Canada), moisture and lift will diminish finally bringing an end to the flurries. The pressure gradient between the incoming high and strong low along the east coast will keep winds breezy into tonight. These breezy winds combined with the falling temperatures will drop wind chills below zero into the negative single digits. The winds will gradually diminish tonight through Monday until the high moves overhead. This will make winds light and variable Monday night. No major changes to the forecast.

Patterson

SHORT TERM

Issued 155 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Backside of the departing trough continues to bring light snow showers/flurries to east central and southeastern WI through the remainder of the afternoon. What you see is what you get and expecting a dusting of snow, but a few spots may pick up a 0.1 of an inch or so with brief drop in visibility. Tight gradient between the weakening low and incoming high pressure will keep the gusty winds around through the evening, but should gradually weaken as the high shifts further east and winds decouple through the night. Will be chilly tonight as subsidence from the high clears the clouds out and looking at temps to drop into the single digits to mid-teens under these conditions. Lingering wind will also contribute to sub-zero winds chills into Monday morning.

Greater influence from the building high pressure across the Upper Midwest for Monday with lighter northwesterly winds through the day lessening and becoming variable overnight Monday. Will see temps rebound into the 20s with mostly sunny and dry conditions. Another chilly night, but not as brisk with lows across southern WI in the teens Monday night.

Wagner

LONG TERM

Issued 155 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

Will see a more active pattern return to the region Tuesday through the middle of the week. There are a few systems to focus on that will bring increased snow chances to southern WI, Tuesday afternoon/ evening, another one late overnight Wednesday into Thursday quickly followed by a clipper into Friday.

Tuesday will see a mid-level shortwave trough dig into the Upper Midwest tracking its associated surface low from the Dakotas into northern WI. Overall models agree on this trek of the low passing to the north and will see warmer than normal temps given the southerly flow before dragging a cold front across our CWA. There looks to be ample forcing along the front with mid-level dCVA, 850mb WAA, and the nose of a 35-45kt LLJ aligning with a slug of Pacific moisture (PWATs around 0.3-0.5 inches). However, the more favorable setup with better/higher snow chances look to remain to our north. Timing of this system remains in question with the ECMWF and GFS are a bit faster than the NAM. Nevertheless, still looking at a 20-40% chance of seeing measurable snow at this time with this frontal passage, mainly for our central and east-central WI counties, while other areas may see more of a wintry mix.

There will be a brief reprieve in activity through Tuesday night into the day Wednesday as high pressure fills in behind the cold front. Then another trough is progged to dig across the central CONUS Wednesday night into Thursday. However, the latest trends keep the surface low south of WI and continue to vary on the strength of the system with the latest 12z ECMWF coming in weaker than the GFS. Regardless will continue to monitor trends over the coming days as being on the north side of this system could bring another round of accumulating snow to southern WI. Then shortly behind it models hint at another clipper tracking across the Upper Great Lakes region for Friday. Otherwise return to more zonal flow through the weekend with a less active pattern and limited to no precip chances.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 559 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected through the period. MVFR ceilings around 2 to 3 kft will continue to move in from the northwest tonight. There are patchy breaks in the clouds and some slightly higher cloud decks around 3 to 4 kft in northwestern Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota that should slowly move in over time. Breezy northwest winds with gusts around 30 MPH (26 kts) will persist into tonight before slowly diminishing after midnight. Area wide VFR conditions are not expected until Monday morning as clouds dissipate and mostly clear skies return. Terminals along Lake Michigan will continue to battle few to sct lake effect clouds as winds become more northerly.

Clouds return Monday night ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. As the clouds begin to return the axis of high pressure will move overhead creating a brief period of light and variable winds Monday evening then light south to southwest winds Monday night into Tuesday morning. Dry weather is expected through the period with chances for snow expected just beyond the TAF period Tuesday.

Patterson

MARINE

Issued 155 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Stronger northwesterly winds will continue to pick up across southern Lake Michigan this evening as low pressure deepens to around 28.6 inches off the Mid-Atlantic coast while high pressure over Manitoba builds to around 31.1 inches as it pushes eastward into Ontario tonight. Gales are expected across the southern two- thirds of the open waters of Lake Michigan, thus a Gale Warning remains in effect from this evening into midday Monday. With the brisk conditions, moderate freezing spray is expected, with brief periods of heavy freezing spray possible in the central to northern third of the lake.

Weakening high pressure to around 30.6 inches continues to push eastward through the day Monday with winds gradually easing overnight. Southerly winds look to develop across the lake Tuesday as a low pressure deepening to around 29.3 inches builds down from the Dakotas and across Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan Tuesday afternoon and evening. Will see winds shift more west-northwest behind the low and associated cold front. Will see strong winds gusts up to around 30 knots for this timeframe, and while potential is lower, still cannot rule out a few gale force gusts later Tuesday into early Wednesday morning.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until noon Monday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Monday.