textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional light snow showers and flurries will continue this morning. Only a dusting is expected, and some locations may see no snow at all.

- Cold and blustery conditions are expected today, with falling temperatures during the afternoon. Wind chills tonight and early Thursday will fall to between -15 and -20.

- A cold and active pattern is favored into next week, with a few additional opportunities for light snow.

SHORT TERM

Issued 300 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Today through Thursday:

An area of light snow is slowly making its way across central and southern Wisconsin early this morning, though with little in the way of meaningful accumulation, as a layer of dry air around 5kft AGL is preventing much of the precipitation from making it to the surface. Overall, expect to see patchy snow showers and areas of flurries through early to mid morning, with little more than a dusting (at most) of new snow.

This snow is occurring within an area of warm advection ahead of a cold front. That front will pass through the area later this morning, with winds turning northwesterly behind the front and ushering a very cold airmass into the region. High temperatures today will be reached mid to late morning (mid to upper 20s), with readings falling through the 20s and into the upper teens by late afternoon.

High pressure will build into the area from the northwest tonight. Winds will ease over time as the high approaches, and these lighter winds along with clearing skies and the widespread snowpack should result in temperatures dropping significantly late tonight. Forecast lows are in the mid single digits below zero, which undercuts guidance by a few degrees. Despite the relatively light winds, wind chill values will still be between -15 and -20 by early Thursday morning. -20 is the criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory, but for now it appears that we will mostly remain just above that level.

High pressure will move across northern Illinois on Thursday. A mostly sunny day is expected, but highs will only reach the low teens.

Boxell

LONG TERM

Issued 300 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Another short period of southerly flow is expected Thursday night into early Friday, with an additional cold front passing through the area Friday and Friday night. This looks to begin a pretty active stretch of northwest flow across the region, with shortwaves and associated reinforcing cold fronts passing through the area every day to every other day. A few of these shortwaves will bring chances for additional light snow, but pinpointing those specific time periods is tough at this distance. That said, extended GEFS and EC ensemble members are hinting at the Monday-Wednesday timeframe as being most favored for additional snowfall, but again, with very low confidence with exact timing and amounts.

For temperatures, other than the potential for a brief warm up here and there ahead of a front, expect readings to remain below average into next week.

Boxell

AVIATION

Issued 300 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

MVFR to occasional IFR is prevailing across southern Wisconsin early this morning, as an area of light snow works through the region. This snow is very light--only a dusting of accumulation is expected--but some brief restrictions in visibility are expected.

Winds today will be gusty from the southwest early, turning westerly and then northwesterly late morning into this afternoon. Winds will decrease in intensity this afternoon and evening.

Low clouds will stick around into this afternoon, before scattering out late this afternoon and this evening has high pressure builds into the area.

Boxell

MARINE

Issued 300 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A strong cold front will move southeast across Lake Michigan today. Gusty southwest winds are occuring ahead of the front this morning, and will become gusty from the northwest this afternoon and night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters. Over the open waters, winds will remain just below gales for most the lake, though a brief period of low end gales is possible late tonight over the far northern part of the lake. Very cold air with this system will result in periods of freezing spray Wednesday night and again Thursday night and Friday.

Lighter winds are expected Thursday, with the influence of strong high pressure around 30.4 inches over Illinois and Indiana. Another period of elevated southwest winds will occur Thursday night into Friday. The potential for these winds to reach gale force over the northern third of the lake is increasing, and a Gale Watch has been issued from Thursday evening through early Friday morning.

Boxell

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM Thursday.

Gale Watch...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...9 PM Thursday to 6 AM Friday.