textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Very mild temperatures in the 60s return for Sunday and Monday via southwesterly winds. A few areas may see temperatures in the low 70s on Monday.

- Rain expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. As rain exits late Tuesday night into Wednesday, some wintry mix is possible into Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorms may develop Thursday afternoon and night.

UPDATE

Issued 603 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Low stratus deck looks to linger longer this evening, but as high pressure moves through will clear later tonight into early Sunday morning. The delay in clouds clearing will slow radiation cooling, but still looking at temps to fall into the mid 30s to around freezing. However, this will be brief as the surface ridging back to our southwest correlates with 925mb WAA, so expecting temps to gradually warm just before daybreak and continue to warm into Sunday.

Wagner

SHORT TERM

Issued 131 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Patchy light drizzle will continue into this afternoon before finally ending across the region, with low stratus continuing through the evening. Expect west-northwesterly gusts between 25 and 35 mph to continue, gradually diminishing into this evening. Late this evening, stratus will finally exit, allowing for clearing skies and temperatures falling to freezing across the majority of southern Wisconsin.

Winds will shift back to southwesterly into Sunday morning as low pressure develops across southern Ontario, bringing in much warmer air and highs in the low 60s. Some high clouds may move in during the afternoon hours from the overrunning moisture from this low. Even after this low exits into eastern Ontario, winds will remain southwesterly Sunday night into Monday due to an additional system following the same path. This will bring lows Sunday night in the mid 40s and highs on Monday in the upper 60s to perhaps near 70 degrees in some places. A back door cold front from this system will turn winds northeasterly overnight Monday and bring lows in the low 40s to upper 30s.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 131 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

A low pressure trough over the central Plains will track into Illinois by late Tuesday afternoon and into Indiana and southern Michigan by Wednesday morning. The low will deepen over the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and night. There continues to be medium-sized differences between the GFS and ECMWF models and affect the forecast amount of precipitation and also the precipitation type.

The operational GFS may be trying to wrap too much Gulf moisture into the strengthening low as it crosses the Great Lakes, and the ECWMF may be trying to cut off the precip too early over southern WI due to its more progressive nature. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles have a lot of similarities on the track of the low (both surface and 500mb) but favors a deeper low with the ECMWF when compared to the GFS. There is a similar spread of the surface low position between both ensembles. The temperature profile up to 850mb is very similar between them as well.

Right now, the extended forecast maintains the NBM model blend and this is appropriate for now. The surface front should line up pretty close to the WI/IL border on Tuesday which means that the chance for thunderstorms will be along and south of this line and there will be uncertainty in its exact position until much closer to the time. The NBM blend gives us a chance for snow (light amounts due to warm temp profile) over central and portions of south central WI early Wednesday within the wrap- around region of the low. There is also a risk for freezing rain Wednesday morning as surface temps are forecast to drop below freezing prior to the upper level temps. We will continue to watch this scenario closely.

A clipper system is forecast with fair model agreement to cross the Upper great Lakes Thursday night into Friday morning. It is looking like southern WI will remain on the warm side of this low, but this can change. Either way, breezy southerly winds are forecast for Thursday, we could see some thunderstorms develop in the warm sector Thursday afternoon or night (depends on timing of low arrival), and then brisk northwest winds are forecast for Friday afternoon. Keep up with the forecast.

Cronce

AVIATION

Issued 603 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MVFR stratus deck looks to hold on longer this evening. Thus have slowed the departure of the 1-2kft ceilings clearing out west between 07-09z and 08-10z further east toward Lake Michigan. LIghter westerly winds expected overnight as well. Additionally could see some LLWS overnight into early Sunday morning as a 40-50 kt low-level jet swings through the area between 09-15z Sunday. However, will begin to see the stronger southwesterly winds and gusts mix down after daybreak. Thus looking at 20-30kt gust possible for southern WI terminals Sunday morning into the afternoon. Otherwise, clearer skies will allow for VFR conditions to prevail for much of Sunday with some lingering breezy winds into Sunday evening.

Wagner

MARINE

Issued 131 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Low pressure around 29.4 inches will continue to exit into Quebec, allowing for continued westerly gusts near 30 kt into this evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for nearshore regions of southern Wisconsin during this time frame. High pressure around 30.1 inches over the central Plains will nudge into southern Wisconsin tonight, allowing winds to diminish and become southwesterly ahead of another quick-moving low pressure system around 28.9 inches progressing east through Ontario overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Winds will become gusty late tonight, with a Gale Warning in effect for the northern half of the lake late tonight through Sunday morning. As low pressure exits to the east, winds will diminish but remain southwesterly ahead of an additional low moving through southern Canada Sunday night into Monday. An additional period of southwesterly gales is possible late Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure then dominates the region and keeps winds light and variable Monday afternoon through Monday night before shifting to become northeasterly as low pressure develops in the Plains Tuesday.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...4 AM Sunday to 1 PM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...4 AM Sunday to 1 PM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Sunday to 6 PM Sunday.