textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST today for much of the forecast area.

- Moderate to briefly heavy rainfall rates are expected today and tonight. Urban and small stream flooding will be possible. - Strong to potentially severe storms are expected late this evening into the overnight. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the main hazards.

- Rain with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night.

- Above normal temperatures continue through at least Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued 625 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Low to mid level warm, moist advection and frontogenesis on the nose of a swly 40-50 kt low level jet is leading the widespread showers and embedded storms into srn WI this morning. A wave of low pressure over the central Great Plains will then reach west central WI by 06Z Sat with its upper wave a bit farther upstream. The sfc warm front will approach far srn WI this afternoon but continued elevated development of showers and storms will likely prevent the frontal passage until the evening. PWATs will increase to 1.3 inches for this afternoon and tonight. Repeated rounds of heavier showers and storms this afternoon on a frozen ground will lead to rapid runoff and the potential for urban and small stream flooding. A break in the showers and storms is expected from late afternoon through the early evening as the elevated warm, moist advection shifts north of the area.

Ongoing or new MCS development will then occur along the wave of low pressure near the MS River this evening and will coincide with an increase of the low level jet to 50-60 kts. MUCAPE will increase to 500 J/kg in the warm sector with strong low to deep layer shear present. A QLCS is expected and shown by CAMs with some CAMs maintaining convection to the lake. The main window would range from 04Z-09Z with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes as the main hazards, via mesovortex development or momentum transfer. As the wave of low pressure tracks into the nrn Great Lakes and Ontario, the cold front will quickly move across srn WI after 12Z Sat.

Gehring

SHORT TERM

Issued 1211 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The Rest of Tonight through Saturday:

Dense fog continues to spread westward, so the Dense Fog Advisory was expanded through much of the forecast area. Also extended the advisory until 9 am, as not much will change in conditions before then.

Confidence is high in an area of widespread showers in a few thunderstorms moving in from the southwest around daybreak Fri morning, spreading northeast through the forecast area during the first half of the morning. This will be in response to strong moisture and warm air advection as a warm front lifts into the area. There won't be much elevated instability to go along only marginal mid-level lapse rates. Shear will be solid though and the freezing level will be relatively low, so still think there could be some hail with this first round.

Latest models vary a bit on when the first round of precip will exit southern Wisconsin, ranging from early to late afternoon. It does look like there will be an eventual lull in widespread precip though from late afternoon into mid-evening. The next round of storms ahead of the approaching cold front will likely arrive in the west around 8-11 pm per latest meso models. This round will have more instability and even better shear to work with, though much of the instability may be aloft. Still, the not out the question to see some surface based storms, with wind an a tornado or two the main severe concerns. Wouldn't be surprised by some hail as well though, as mid-level lapse rates will be increasing through the evening hours. Storm are expected to exit the east sometime between 1 and 4 am Fri night, with a few showers lingering late night into Saturday morning as the trailing cold front finally moves through.

Another concern today through tonight will be the multiple rounds of showers and storms, with widespread rain totals of 0.75" to 1.25" and locally higher amounts likely. Due to the frozen ground, this could cause some standing water in ditches and low lying roads as well as localized flooding.

Bumped temps down a bit for today, given the slower arrival of the warm sector of the approaching system. Also, clouds and precip into the afternoon will also keep temps down. Still will be a mild day for early March. It will remain mild tonight, as the cold front won't clear the forecast area until sometime Saturday morning. Falling temps are then likely the remainder of the day Saturday behind the front.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 1211 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

Above normal temps are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with cooler conditions arriving for mid-week. Dry weather will likely prevail Sunday and Monday, with rain showers possibly returning Tuesday into Tuesday night as low pressure moves through the region.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 625 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Cigs well below 1 kft for much of the day with occasional fog and showers/storms. The Cigs will become MVFR Cigs with higher vsbys this evening into the overnight as the warm sector moves into the region. LLWS will develop this morning via swly LLJ of 40 kt then increasing to 50 kts or greater tnt. More showers and storms, possibly severe, late tonight.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 1211 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Low pressure around 29.5 inches will develop in the central Plains tonight and track toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley by Friday evening. This low will move near or just north of Lake Michigan later Friday night into Saturday morning, quickly moving into Quebec by Saturday evening. Dense fog will likely persist across at least the south half of the lake into Friday morning.

As the low passes to the north, breezy southerly winds will develop for Friday afternoon and night, then shifting west to northwest on Saturday with the passage of the cold front. Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will accompany the approaching and passing low Friday into Friday night. Breezy southwest winds are then forecast for Sunday into Monday.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Dense Fog Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 9 AM Friday.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669- LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 9 AM Friday.