textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southerly winds 30 to 40 mph expected from mid morning through mid afternoon. Higher gusts are possible.

- Milder temperatures and breezy conditions today, followed by widespread showers (80-90 percent with around a quarter inch accumulation) this evening with the cold frontal passage. A few rumbles of thunder are possible.

- Another round of showers with a few storms (60-90 percent) are expected Thursday night, followed by an active weather pattern of warm and humid conditions and more showers and storms Sunday into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued 625 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The wintry mix occurred overnight into this morning, but has changed to all rain per the surface observations with the exception of Sheboygan. The mix of rain/snow/sleet will end by 630 AM as temperatures rise through the low levels. Light showers are still being generated with the low level warm air advection back into northeast Iowa this morning, so we may need to extend the rain shower chances through noon today.

Southeast winds are starting to increase already as the low level jet streams overhead. By 10 AM, winds will be 50 kt at 850mb and 40 kt at 925mb. The depth of the mixing is the uncertainty for today, but if we start to see upstream wind gusts of 39 kt (45 mph) or higher this morning, we may have to issue a Wind Advisory. The Grand Ensemble in DESI is showing a 60 to 80% chance of greater than 45 mph gusts northwest of a line from Monroe to Madison to West Bend to Sheboygan from 10 AM through 3 PM.

The round of showers and isolated storms this evening should bring a widespread quarter inch to central and southern WI. The chance for greater than a quarter inch is 80-90% toward central WI, 60% from Madison to West Bend, and 40-50% from Monroe to Waukesha to Port Washington and southward.

Cronce

SHORT TERM

Issued 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Today through Saturday:

For tnt a weak wave of low pressure will move ewd across SD, while a stronger low pressure area to the north will track into srn Manitoba. This will send a strong swly LLJ toward srn WI.

Light rain and snow is beginning to move into sw WI late this evening and is on track to overspread srn WI into the early morning hours. Despite the current dry air mass over the region, the nose of a swly 40-50 kt low level jet and associated thetae advection and frontogenesis, will bring PWATs of 0.70 inches into the region. A decent surge of lift will accompany these features with all but far se WI to likely see light mixed precipitation. Sfc temps will initially be around the freezing mark north and east of Madison then gradually warming through the early morning. Two to three hours of light freezing rain is likely just north of Madison and toward central WI due to an invading warm layer aloft. However, road temps should remain above freezing so only a glaze of ice is expected on elevated surfaces, that would promptly melt toward sunrise.

Breezy sly winds and strong warm advection will then boost temps into the middle to upper 60s for Wed afternoon as the low pressure area tracks into Ontario. Gusty winds to 35 to 40 mph can be expected. PWATs will increase to 1 inch for Wed evening and overnight when the cold front will pass. Strong low level frontogenesis is depicted with the front including widespread showers and expected rainfall of 0.25-0.50 inches.

Weak sfc ridging and wly sfc flow can be expected for Thu with cooler temps than Wed, but still on the mild side. A wave of low pressure supported by a weak shortwave trough will then track from the central Great Plains into IN Thu nt. PWATs of 0.75-1.00 inches will shift back north into the region. Well organized 850-700 mb frontogenesis and the nose of a low level jet near the IL border will support widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder during this time. 0.50-0.80 inches of rain are forecast over far srn WI with lesser amounts to the north.

Afterward, wnwly flow aloft and 500 mb height rises are forecast Fri-Sat, while sfc high pressure shifts ewd across the Great Lakes. Near normal temps on Fri will begin to warm into Sat on sely winds and warm advection.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Saturday night through Tuesday:

An organized area of low pressure will develop into the northern Great Plains and MN this weekend into early next week with swly flow aloft becoming established over the region. This will bring a period of showers and storms into Tue when the cold front will pass. High temps in the 70s are forecast Sun-Mon then cooling into the 50-60s for Tue.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 625 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The wintry mix over east central WI will exit prior to 12Z and light rain showers will gradually taper off through 17Z. Strong and gusty southerly winds are expected today. VFR conditions will continue until the steady rain showers with isolated thunderstorms arrive with a cold front this evening. MVFR ceilings are possible with the frontal passage, although should not be prevailing. Look for clearing skies overnight behind the front.

Cronce

MARINE

Issued 625 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

High pressure around 30.6 inches over the lower Great Lakes will continue eastward this morning. Low pressure around 29.5 inches tracking along the northern Great Plains and Canadian border will track north of Lake Superior tonight into Thursday morning. This will result in very breezy southerly winds over Lake Michigan on Wednesday with gale force gusts up to 40 kt. A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern two thirds of the lake.

Much lighter westerly winds are then expected on Thursday in the wake of a cold front. Light and variable winds will prevail into Saturday, until breezy southerly winds return late in the weekend.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 9 AM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643 until 7 PM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874 until 4 AM Thursday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM Thursday.