textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of central and east central Wisconsin for Wednesday. Gusty winds coupled with light snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected in the Advisory area, leading to blowing and drifting snow. Slick spots and pockets of reduced visibility may cause impacts to holiday travel.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire area on Wednesday. Gusts to 50 MPH are expected. - Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow for this upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The strong cold front with the associated rain is shifting east northeast through the area, and should move out of the area in the next one to two hours or so. Gusty winds to 40 MPH may occur with this area of rain.

Winds are shifting to the west southwest behind the front, becoming gusty as the leading edge of the strong cold air advection moves into the area. There should be a lull in the precipitation for a time into the overnight hours, before the next area of mainly snow moves in toward daybreak with the 500 mb closed low and associated differential CVA. There may be some 700 to 500 mb frontogenesis response also helping to generate the snow.

This should move east into the area after 3 AM to 4 AM CST Wednesday, spreading east quickly by 6 AM to 7 AM CST. The snow should be fluffy and powdery, as temperatures continue to drop and snow to liquid ratios increase. This, combined with the strong west to northwest winds gusting to 45 to 50 MPH, should bring the risk for blowing snow and reduced visibility to a mile or two, perhaps lower in northern parts of the area where the higher amounts are expected. This will impact holiday travel on Wednesday.

Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches may occur in the northern counties, though most of this should blow around with the strong winds and powdery nature of the snow. Vehicles on north to south roads may face buffeting due to the winds.

Thus, the Winter Weather Advisory continues for Marquette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Dodge, Washington and Ozaukee Counties from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday. The Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire area during this time as well.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 310 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Low clouds, mostly dry weather, and light / variable winds through the remainder of this afternoon.

A cold front arrives late this evening (7-10 PM CST Madison and Janesville, 9 PM - 12 AM for Milwaukee / Sheboygan) delivering light rain showers and breezy southwest winds. A transition from rain to snow gradually unfolds well behind the cold front (after Midnight tonight), with predominantly just snow falling from daybreak Wednesday onwards. West to northwest winds become extremely gusty through the daytime hours of Wednesday (entire region), easily gusting to 45 MPH, with a few stronger gusts possible. Light powdery snowfall continues, amounting to a dusting of accumulation in most areas, with 1 to 3 inch accumulations possible towards portions of central and east- central WI (for which a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued). Though snow accumulations in this range are typically considered to be below Advisory criteria, the wind gusts and powdery texture to the snow could easily lead to some blowing and drifting, with pockets of reduced visibility and treacherous travel conditions.

The end time for the Advisory is currently 6 PM CST Wednesday, on account of decreasing wind gusts and a west to east cutoff of snowfall (though this could be adjusted if needed). Dry weather and breezy northwest winds then continue Wednesday night, with temperatures plummeting to the low 20s.

Sheppard

LONG TERM

Issued 310 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

Winds will come down from Wednesday as the pressure gradient weakens a bit but lingering breezy winds from the departing surface low and chilly temperatures will likely bring wind chills as low as the mid single digits across southern WI. Winds will decrease even further Thursday night as higher pressure nudges into the region. Friday morning will actually be chillier with lows in the mid to upper teens so despite lower winds wind chills are still expected to be in the mid to upper single digits. Otherwise Thursday and Friday are largely expected to be quiet weather wise.

Then our attention turns toward the weekend system that has certainly come into focus a bit better though still containing a large degree of uncertainty. The uncertainty with this next system primarily involves the track and the QPF within the system. These are all likely being heavily influenced by the phasing of this system portrayed in the models. While each model shows something similar they all show differences in the lead up to the event. This is particularly the case with the trough as there appears to be 2 or even 3 pieces of embedded shortwave energy that generally combine as the trough swings through our region. On piece of energy lee of the Rockies in the panhandle region, a piece in the Dakotas, and perhaps another trailing piece from Alberta. The manner in which these interact will greatly determine what we should expect to receive from this system.

Trends have very much begun to suggest snow is likely with this event, the question becomes exactly how much and intense snowfall gets. A far enough north track of the low could actually yield rain for a period, whereas a further south track could lead to largely snow but perhaps not higher end snowfall amounts. Somewhere in between is the 'Goldilocks zone' where if the low track is right we could see some higher snow amounts where there would be increased concerns for strong Fgen with strong influence from midlevel WAA, upper level PVA, perhaps some jet coupling, and impacts from the surface low and corresponding fronts. In the right scenario we also likely see some lake enhancement for this event as well

Currently this event has trended toward a Saturday afternoon/ evening period for the greatest period of snow potential (though this can still change). While remaining uncertain there is increasing concern for accumulating and impactful snow as models have at least dialed in some of those previous uncertainties.

Into Sunday, there may be lingering snow chances on the backside of the low as higher pressure starts to build in behind the departing low. Into early next week things trend drier as higher pressure seems to dominate the low levels in various forms. There is some uncertainty given that the upper trough will remain in the region but limited energy and associated moisture may end up keeping things dry overall.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The strong cold front with the associated rain is shifting east northeast through the area, and should move out of the area in the next one to two hours or so. Gusty winds to 35 knots may occur with this area of rain. Ceilings may briefly rise to VFR levels, as a dry slot works through the area. More MVFR to IFR ceilings should work into the area overnight.

Winds are shifting to the west southwest behind the front, becoming gusty as the leading edge of the colder air moves into the area. There should be a lull in the precipitation for a time into the overnight hours, before the next area of mainly snow moves in toward daybreak.

This snow should move east into the area after 09Z to 10Z Wednesday, spreading east quickly by 12Z to 13Z. General visibility should be 2 to 5 miles with the snow. It should be fluffy and powdery, as temperatures continue to drop. This, combined with the strong west to northwest winds gusting to 35 to 42 knots, should bring the risk for blowing snow and reduced visibility. It may be reduced to a mile or two, perhaps lower toward Sheboygan where the higher amounts are expected. Will wait to see how this trends later on before bringing lower values into area TAFs.

Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches may occur in the northern parts of the area, with rates around one quarter inch per hour. Most of the powdery snow should blow around with the strong winds. Areas to the south may see amounts around or under one inch, again most of it blowing around. The snow should end by early Wednesday evening, with continued strong northwest winds overnight into Thursday.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Low pressure around 29.5 inches is expected to cross the Upper Peninsula of Michigan overnight into Wednesday, deepening to around 29.3 inches. A cold front extending south of the low is expected to cross Lake Michigan tonight, turning winds southwest and increasing toward daybreak on Wednesday. Gusty west southwest winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels for a short time overnight for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan.

Strong west to northwest winds will develop over the lake Wednesday. Expecting storm force gusts for the southern two thirds of the lake, where a Storm Warning is in effect. Gale force gusts are expected for the northern one third, where a Gale Warning is in effect. The strongest winds and highest waves should be on the east side of the lake.

The strong winds veer northwest later Wednesday and linger through Thursday night. Winds are expected to decrease below storm force by daybreak Thursday, but Gale Warnings remain in effect Thursday into Thursday night, as strong northwest winds continue. Winds gradually subside into Friday, as high pressure around 30.4 inches builds into the region from the west.

Wagner/Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066- WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM Wednesday.

Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060...6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878...midnight Thursday to midnight Friday.

Storm Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Wednesday to midnight Thursday.

Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM Friday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM Thursday.