textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will transition to snow west to east through this morning, with impactful accumulating snow expected west of a line from Janesville to Fond du Lac. A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect for these areas.

- Gusty west to northwest winds are expected for much of the region this morning through early this afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect.

- Occasional chances for flurries / light snow this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning (10-40% chances).

SHORT TERM

Issued 1240 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Today and Tonight:

As low pressure pivots from eastern IA through southern WI overnight into Friday morning, we expect a gradual west to east transition from rain to snow. This transition is either right on track or roughly 1 hour slower than prior expectations. Expected snow totals remain as stated previously. 3 to 8 inches possible in the Winter Storm Warning area, Iowa, Lafayette, and Sauk counties, with the highest potential towards the western edge of each county. 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals to 6 in the Winter Wx Advisory area, Columbia, Dane, Green, Green Lake, and Marquette Counties, again with the highest totals further west. This will be a 'wet' snow, and accumulations will be slushy. The only noteworthy trend as far as these amounts go has been a refocusing of the higher totals slightly further north and west. As such, it's possible we will have to downgrade Lafayette county from a Warning to an Advisory, and possibly upgrade Marquette county to a warning. We'll keep you posted. As with any mixed precip event, changes may occur on short notice.

East of the Advisory area, it's still looking 'too little too late' for the transition to snow, with flakes likely to mix in at some point this morning, but struggle to accumulate due to warmer surface temps. Still, we'll have to watch for some slick spots on pavement.

We've added a wind advisory for all except central / east- central WI, with concerns for the west to northwest wind gusts on the southwest side of the low pressure to reach our 45 mph criteria. Though we're not perfectly confident in reaching criteria, the combination of sticky wet snow and gusty winds (where the Winter Storm Warning and Wind Advisory overlap) poses a threat to tree branches (and thus to power lines), plus the added travel threat to high profile vehicles.

Winds gradually ramp down into this afternoon, with some slight potential for flurries (or even a stray snow shower) to linger into this afternoon, mainly towards east-central WI. Overnight lows in the upper teens to upper 20s expected.

Sheppard

LONG TERM

Issued 1240 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

A weak surface pressure trough is expected to linger in the wake of the departed low pressure, oriented from the UP of MI to central lower MI. As this feature sags south later Saturday into Sunday, it will interact with a passing upper trough to produce some chances for flurries or light snow (esp Saturday night into Sunday morning). A northwest breeze is expected Saturday through Monday as arctic high pressure builds southward toward the Dakotas / MN, leading to slightly below normal temperatures. Predominantly dry and quiet weather looking likely Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures begin an upward trend into Tuesday as southerly flow develops ahead of the next system.

Models currently favor a clipper system developing over the northern plains Monday night and tracking eastward past our region Tuesday into Wednesday. Plenty of dispersion in the models on the intensity and track of this system, as well as whether or not a secondary 500mb shortwave trough will follow closely behind it, but the common thread (for all but a few ensemble members) is little to no QPF to work with (until Thursday and beyond). Depending on the track and intensity, we could wind up with light rain chances or light snow chances as the system passes, with either above normal or near normal temperatures.

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 1240 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Rain showers continue overnight, with a few embedded thunderstorms remaining possible for the first few hours past midnight. Ceilings continue to gradually fall from MVFR to IFR, with pockets of LIFR as well. A rain to snow transition gradually progresses west to east overnight into Friday morning, resulting in dropouts in visibility. Where this transition arrives early enough (mainly KMSN and further west), some slushy accumulations may occur, with some locally heavy accumulations possible towards KLNR, KDLL, and further west. Gusty west to northwest winds arrive in a southwest to northeast manner around and after dawn on Friday, achieving 30 to 40 knot gusts. Wet snow will then taper off in a west to east manner, leaving most areas dry by Noon CST. KSBM will hang on to a PROB30 group in the TAF into Friday afternoon, given some potential for light snow to linger in east-central WI. Some flurries elsewhere cannot be ruled out. Winds slowly begin to settle and cloud ceilings improve to MVFR levels into the afternoon. Ceilings may linger at MVFR levels into Friday night, though there is some potential for it to scatter out.

Sheppard

MARINE

Issued 1240 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Low pressure of 29.2 inches will track northeastward across northern Illinois / southeastern Wisconsin overnight, cross central Lake Michigan Friday morning, then exit eastward (over Lake Huron) and diminish rapidly Friday evening. For northern portions of Lake Michigan, we expect gusty east to northeast winds through the course of this event, with a few gusts to gale force possible late tonight into Friday morning. For the southern half of the lake, breezy east to northeast winds for the early overnight hours, veering south and accelerating as the low approaches. As the low crosses central portions of the lake Friday morning, winds veer west and accelerate to gale force over the southern half. A Gale Warning remains in effect over the southern half of the lake Friday morning through Friday evening for west gales to around 40 knots.

Northwest winds gradually subside as the low pressure departs and weakens Friday night. Northwest to north winds continue through the weekend and into early next week as arctic high pressure builds southward towards the Dakotas / Minnesota. These winds will become gusty Sunday into Monday as the arctic high draws closer, and could reach gale force Sunday night into Monday morning.

The arctic high pressure erodes rapidly Monday evening, allowing winds to subside. The remnants of this high pressure push east of the lake as a weak surface pressure ridge, working with a developing low pressure over the northern plains to drive breezy south winds into Tuesday.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Storm Warning...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ067 until noon Friday.

Wind Advisory...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065- WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 AM Friday to 3 PM Friday.

Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ057-WIZ063-WIZ068 until noon Friday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday.

Gale Warning...LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870...11 AM Friday to 9 PM Friday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643...11 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 11 AM Friday.

Gale Warning...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 8 AM Friday.