textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and cooler today, with gusty northwest winds continuing.

- Warm and humid conditions with increasing storm chances returns this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued 544 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Cyclonic flow at 500 mb will maintain scattered to broken, perhaps overcast at times, clouds across the area today. Gusty northwest winds are expected to linger into this afternoon as well, with the good low level mixing and tight pressure gradient lingering. Highs will be cooler in the 60s today.

High pressure moving southeast across the region tonight into Thursday will bring dry conditions and light winds. Clearing skies tonight may allow for patchy frost across portions of inland areas, as lows there may drop into the middle to upper 30s.

A southeast lake breeze is expected by Thursday afternoon near the lake, with light south southeast winds inland. Highs should warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland, with cooler temperatures near the lake.

Some showers (30 to 50 percent chances) may move east through the area Thursday night into Friday morning, with some warm air advection in the low levels with a passing weak shortwave trough. There may be a rumble of thunder, but forecast soundings are not showing much instability so kept it mainly out of the forecast for now. Warmer highs into the middle 70s to lower 80s are anticipated on increasing south winds.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 1156 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Today through Thursday:

Expect continuing breezy northwest winds as low pressure retreats east and high pressure moves in from the northern plains. CAA will cause a dip in temperatures today, with highs in the 60s.

Winds ease tonight as the high pressure moves overhead. Some scattered frost may occur mainly over Green Lake, Marquette, and Dodge Counties where temperatures are expected to be lowest in the mid 30s. Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 30s to near 40.

High pressure lingers Thursday, with quiet conditions persisting. Southerly winds will return during the afternoon and weak WAA as ridging aloft builds into the area will allow highs in the upper 60s to low 70s over much of the area.

CMiller

LONG TERM

Issued 1212 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Thursday night through Wednesday:

A warming trend and a more active pattern look to set up Thursday night into next week as multiple waves of warm advection kick off shower and storm activity through the weekend and more spring-like humidity returns to the upper midwest. It doesn't look like a washout, but favored times for precipitation look to be Thursday night into Friday morning, Saturday night into Sunday, and then Monday afternoon into Monday evening. At this time, the best chances for stronger storms would occur with the Saturday into Sunday activity, and the Monday activity, as more potent shortwaves will roll through aloft during these time periods.

With the warming trend, temps will rise into the upper 70s Friday, and then 80s Saturday through Monday. The NBM projects highs in the upper 80s for Monday, amid dewpoints near 70, which will feel tropical compared to the recent low dewpoints and relatively dry daytime RH values we have been experiencing.

CMiller

AVIATION

Issued 544 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Cyclonic flow aloft will maintain scattered to broken, perhaps overcast at times, ceilings dropping to 2500 feet AGL or so into this morning. These ceilings should rise to above 3500 feet AGL this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds are expected to linger into this afternoon as well.

High pressure moving southeast across the region tonight into Thursday will bring dry conditions and light winds. Clearing skies tonight are expected. A southeast lake breeze is expected by Thursday afternoon near the lake, with light south southeast winds inland.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 544 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Gusty northwest winds will continue into today, as low pressure around 29.6 inches moves east of the region. A few gale force gusts may occur over the open waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into this afternoon for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan.

Lighter winds are then expected tonight into Thursday, as high pressure around 30.1 inches moves southeast through the region.

Breezy southerly winds are expected to develop Friday, with a few gales possible Friday afternoon and evening in northern portions of the lake. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Friday into Friday evening for the nearshore waters. South to southwest winds then linger Friday night into Saturday.

Winds should then increase gradually for Sunday, as a warm front moves northward into the region, ahead of low pressure around 29.2 inches in the central Plains.

CMiller/Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Wednesday.