textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- ~20-45% rain chances arrive Tonight (mainly after 9 PM). Best rain potential will be towards eastern and east-central WI. Dry conditions by pre-dawn Monday.

- Breezy southwest winds continue into Tonight. Winds turn west behind a cold front late tonight, becoming gusty again (25 to 35 MPH gusts) into Monday.

- High temperatures trending above normal through Tuesday.

- 60% chances for rain Thursday night into Friday morning with a passing cold front. Temperatures decline into the weekend behind it.

SHORT TERM

Issued 310 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Tonight and Monday:

Deep low pressure continues east northeastward across northern Ontario Canada through Tonight, driving breezy southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Working with an approaching 500mb trough, this front will bring 20-45% precip chances to the region Tonight, mainly after 9 PM CST. Highest chances are towards east- central WI, and would amount in only light rain totals if applicable (around a tenth of an inch or less). Overnight low temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 expected, with the cloud cover and brute force WAA preventing temps from falling further.

Rain chances cease before dawn Monday, leaving dry weather and breezy west winds for the daytime hours. Currently expecting 25 to 30 MPH gusts for Monday, decreasing after dark. Sunny skies allow for a high temperature in the mid to upper 50s.

Sheppard

LONG TERM

Issued 310 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Monday night through Sunday:

Another day of relatively warm (above average) conditions is expected Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and dry weather. High pressure passes south of the region, working with a clipper system near South Dakota to drive light to modest south winds. Roughly 10% precip chances included in the forecast Tuesday night to account for the passage of this clipper system, though most models keep us dry and quiet within it's warm sector.

Next noteworthy chance for precipitation is Thursday night through Friday morning (60%) as a more robust low pressure tracks through the Dakotas / Minnesota and continues eastward. With a good consensus between the GFS and ECMWF models, this system will deliver a beneficial rainfall along it's cold front, with most ensemble members landing in the ballpark of a quarter inch of rain (or 1 inch for the higher percentile members). Behind this system, a cooling trend is expected, sending daytime highs into the 40s through the weekend.

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 310 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

~3,000 ft SCT/BKN cumulus / stratocumulus clouds were more persistent than previously expected today, and have lead to some periodic MVFR in southern / southeastern WI today. Satellite signatures indicate these have begun to rapidly decrease in coverage, leaving mid and high altitude BKN VFR ceilings in place. Dry weather through the rest of the daytime hours and early this evening, with breezy southwest winds.

Southwest winds remain breezy into tonight, with a cold front gradually approaching from the northwest. 20-45% chances for rain are expected with this cold front (and an accompanying upper air trough), mainly after 9 PM CST tonight, with the highest chances towards east-central Wisconsin. 40 to 50 knot winds are expected at the 2,000 ft AGL level overnight, resulting in Low Level Wind Shear (which has been added to all TAFs).

Dry weather is expected for all areas before daybreak Monday morning. Winds veer west early in the morning (behind the front) and become gusty after sunrise, with 25 KT gusts included in the forecast Monday.

Sheppard

MARINE

Issued 310 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

29.2 inch low pressure continues east across northern Ontario Canada this afternoon, resulting in increasing southwest winds over the waters. The strongest winds are expected over northern portions of the lake tonight, with gusts around 45 knots. As such, all northern open waters remain under a Gale Warning through 6 AM CST Monday. Low-end gales are expected for the southern half of Lake Michigan, but with a later arrival. As such, the southern half of the open waters is under a Gale Warning from 6 PM CST this evening through 6 AM CST Monday morning.

Winds veer from southwest to west as a cold front crosses the lake late Tonight into Monday morning. Areas of rain are expected tonight along the front, drying out by around dawn Monday. Though the center of low pressure retreats east- northeastward across Hudson Bay Canada, winds remain gusty throughout the daytime and evening hours of Monday, and a few westerly gusts to gale force will remain possible. An extension of the existing Gale Warning or a brand new Gale Warning cannot be completely ruled out for this period, though our best guess is for gusts to hold just shy of gale criteria.

West winds subside Monday night. High pressure passes just south of the lake on Tuesday, with light to modest west winds, turning south over time.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868 until 6 AM Monday.

Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777- LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Monday.