textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Low snow chances (20%) for southwestern WI overnight. Better chances for any accumulation remain along and south of the WI/IL border. - Milder end to the week with highs in the 30s Thursday and Friday.

- Chances for light snow and/or wintry mix (20-40%) possible later Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued 550 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Flurries have tapered off across the region, with clearing skies across central Wisconsin, lingering lake-effect low clouds in Lake Michigan counties, and increasing upper level clouds in southwestern Wisconsin as a clipper system moves in. Still expecting mostly dry conditions due to a good deal of dry air near the surface, but a few snow showers still may creep into southwestern Wisconsin tonight. Expecting lows in the single digits in central Wisconsin where clear skies prevail, and lows in the low teens in areas of clouds.

MH

SHORT TERM

Issued 1250 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

This afternoon through Tuesday night:

Southern WI will sit in upper-level northwesterly through the afternoon with a few lingering flurries given the prevailing stratus deck. However, latest satellite trends are showing clouds clearing across southwestern WI and will gradually spread east through the remainder of the afternoon and maybe a few flurries lingering along the lakeshore early this evening.

Models continue to prog a mid-level shortwave trough to dig down across the traverse the Upper Midwest overnight. A band of 700mb frontogenesis looks to clip far southwestern WI overnight and with just enough moisture and lift for a period of light snow. Still some models keep our CWA dry, thus will stick with lower PoPs (20%) for now, but could see upping chances later this evening once we have a better idea if it will develop north of the WI/IL border. If any of this snow activity sneaks into the area tonight, only would expect a dusting to potentially few tenths of an inch of accumulation along and southwest of a line from Lone Rock to Lake Geneva.

Otherwise, looking at a bit cooler for Tuesday as high pressure builds across the region through midweek. Overnight lows tonight will dip into the lower teens and single digits aided by incoming cloud cover providing a bit of insulation. However, skies are looking to clear for Tuesday and temps warm into the upper teens to the mid 20s with even colder lows Tuesday night in the single digits given the clear and calm conditions.

Wagner

LONG TERM

Issued 1250 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

High pressure and the chiller, but quieter conditions will persist into Wednesday as high pressure meanders over WI before finally kicking southeast overnight Wednesday. Southerly winds return and low-level WAA will then settle into the region and temps are looking to warm for the end of the week. There is an increased potential for above freezing temps Thursday into Friday. The NBM has 50-70% chance for Thursday and above 80% chance for Friday to see highs above freezing, but the LREF ensemble members are not as excited but still a 20-40% Thursday and 40-70% chance on Friday. So overall the trend is favoring an end of the week warm up.

Accompanying this warm up will be the next round of precipitation as a swath of Pacific moisture pairs with a clipper and treks across the Upper Great Lakes later Thursday. Additional forcing from low-level WAA and frontogenesis will support the increased precip chances (20- 40%). The main question with this activity will be the precip type as milder temps and timing may support snow to a wintry mix. As the clipper and associated cold front swings through on Friday, temps are progged to cool down later Friday into the weekend closer to normal values as another Canadian high builds into the region.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 550 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

An MVFR cloud deck lingers near Lake Michigan, expected to slowly whittle away west to east tonight. Expecting high clouds to move in elsewhere, with a few snow showers developing across southwestern Wisconsin late tonight. Still expecting snow and associated MVFR conditions to remain south of MSN, but chances for JVL and ENW remain in place (~20 percent). All VFR conditions are expected by Tuesday afternoon, with a scattered deck around 2000 ft possible near Lake Michigan.

Light northwesterly to northerly winds overnight, remaining light through Tuesday and Tuesday night under high pressure.

MH

MARINE

Issued 1250 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Northwesterly winds continue across the Lake this afternoon/evening behind the cold front, but will gradually weaken overnight into Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Lighter, varying winds will continue through Wednesday as high pressure meanders around Lake Michigan before finally shifting southeast overnight into Thursday. Will see southerly winds increase for Thursday as low pressure tracks into the Hudson Bay region. This will then drag a cold front across Lake Michigan later Thursday into Friday with increasing northwesterly winds. There continues to be a potential for gales on Friday. Then winds weaken into the weekend as another high pressure builds into the region through the end of the weekend.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.