textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM CDT this morning. - Warmer temperatures today and Saturday. Cooler near the lake this afternoon with a southeast lake breeze. - A clipper system brings rain chances (65 to 75 percent) Monday night into Tuesday night. A few thunderstorms will be possible (mainly Tuesday afternoon), but no strong to severe storms are expected.

UPDATE

Issued 525 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM CDT this morning for all of southern Wisconsin. Lows in the lower to middle 30s will allow for frost to develop. Cover or bring indoors any sensitive plants.

Light to modest south to southwest winds are expected today, as low pressure moves from northern Minnesota into western Lake Superior. The weak warm air advection and some moisture with daytime heating per forecast soundings may result in scattered sprinkles this afternoon. Low levels will remain dry, so think any precipitation will be sprinkles versus showers. Highs should reach the middle to upper 60s inland, with a southeast lake breeze turning temperatures cooler near Lake Michigan.

Scattered sprinkles may occur tonight into Sunday morning, as a cold front moves southeast across the area. Forecast soundings continue to show some modest moisture but will be up against dry low levels. There may be some sprinkles or isolated showers Saturday afternoon, as weak differential CVA tries to work through the area. Kept the afternoon dry for now. Gusty west northwest winds are expected Saturday, with highs in the middle to upper 60s.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Today through Saturday:

Areas of frost are still expected in the region early this morning, with nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies continuing for the next several hours. Some high altitude clouds will eventually make their approach towards dawn and slow the cooling trend.

Still expecting daytime highs in the 60s to around 70 Today and Saturday. Saturday should feature breezy W to NW winds, preventing the formation of a lake breeze and allowing the warmth to spread to the shoreline. For Today the weaker SW winds should allow a SSE lake breeze to form, likely only ventilating the nearest ~5 miles from the shoreline thru mid afternoon, then making further progress as the synoptic winds weaken late today. Expecting cooler temps (in the 50s) along the immediate shoreline due to this lake breeze.

Sheppard

LONG TERM

Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Saturday night through Thursday:

Northwest winds decelerate and sky cover decreases Saturday night, with some slight potential for frost development towards the northwest corner of the CWA (towards central WI, low temps in the mid 30s possible), likely too warm elsewhere. High temperatures around 60 degrees expected Sunday, with a redeveloping NW breeze. Some potential for a weak lake breeze to push against this synoptic flow and hold shoreline temperatures to the mid / low 50s, though our current forecast (best guess) spreads 60 degree highs to the shoreline. Dry weather looking likely as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Better potential for frost in the northwest half of the CWA (lows in the low to mid 30s) Sunday night, with calm winds and clear skies looking likely.

High pressure passes overhead Monday with temperatures holding steady (around 60) for inland areas and weak synoptic winds. As such, an easterly lake breeze will likely hold shoreline high temps to the low 50s. Dry weather continues.

ECMWF and GFS solutions remain in agreement on a clipper system passing the region on Tuesday, delivering rain chances (65-75%) late Monday night through Tuesday night. The rain will only last a fraction of this timeframe (keeping the time window wide to account for model dispersion) with the majority of model QPF falling in the daytime hours Tuesday for the time being. The fast moving nature of this system will limit it's residence time, yielding only 30% chances for reaching or exceeding 0.5 inches of rain (based off the latest GEFS guidance); this is a slight increase from the 20% chance that the GEFS provided on prior runs so we'll continue to monitor trends. Though thunderstorms will be possible at times (esp Tuesday afternoon), the fast approach / exit of the system prevents it from drawing gulf moisture and sufficient instability, hence we do not expect any strong to severe storms with this system.

Dry weather expected Wednesday as high pressure tracks through the region behind the departing clipper system. Ridging in the jet stream is expected to gradually build into the Midwestern CONUS through late next week, yielding a warming trend.

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 525 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Light to modest south to southwest winds are expected today, as low pressure moves from northern Minnesota into western Lake Superior. Some middle to high clouds may move through this morning, with scattered to broken clouds around 5000 to 7000 feet AGL this afternoon. Scattered sprinkles may occur this afternoon. A southeast lake breeze is expected this afternoon for terminals near Lake Michigan.

Scattered sprinkles may occur tonight into Sunday morning, as a cold front moves southeast across the area. There may be some sprinkles or isolated showers Saturday afternoon. Gusty west northwest winds are expected Saturday, with scattered to broken clouds around 5000 feet AGL.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Weak high pressure of 30.0 inches slides further away across the southeastern CONUS overnight. Meanwhile, broad low pressure around 29.5 inches lingers over Hudson Bay. Light southwest winds expected over Lake Michigan overnight, turning due south and accelerating through Today. A cold front extending southwest of the low will sweep across the lake Saturday, with breezy southwest winds ahead of it and northwest winds arriving behind it.

High pressure around 30.3 inches tracks southeastward across Manitoba Canada Sunday, then the Great lakes region on Monday. Relatively light and variable winds are expected through this period.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Frost Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066- WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 8 AM Friday.

LM...None.