textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light showers and sprinkles overnight.

- Watching for areas of elevated fire weather conditions through the first half of this week.

- Trending warm & humid Thursday into next weekend with multiple chances for showers & storms.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1114 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Rest of Tonight through Wednesday:

An area of light showers over central MN and southwest WI is associated with mid level vorticity advection and weak low level warm air advection. This forcing will continue to slowly shift eastward overnight into Monday. With cloud bases between 8000 and 10kft and dry air below it, only sprinkles and light rain are making it to the ground.

With the mid level clouds expected to sit over southern WI for most of the day, our high temps may be lower than what the NBM and other current guidance suggests. I lowered the Max T a couple degrees, but we will have to watch the temp trends.

In addition, the upper low sitting over the northeast will swing a trough into Michigan Monday morning. This will push colder, lake- cooled air from east to west across southern WI Monday morning (back door cold front). This one does not look as strong as the one on Saturday, but we can still plan for a steady easterly wind and cooler temperatures near the lake.

Tuesday winds will still be easterly but lighter. Sunshine will help temps rise into the upper 70s for inland areas. The surface ridge will start to shift east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will allow for winds to become more southerly by late afternoon and temps to rise above 80 inland. The lake breeze will still play a role in the lakeshore temperatures.

Cronce

LONG TERM

Issued 1114 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Thursday through Sunday:

An active weather pattern will set up for the latter half of the week. The interaction between shortwaves tracking along the U.S./Canadian border and also from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest will draw Gulf moisture into the region. A slow- moving cold front will be the focus for chances of showers and thunderstorms in southern WI. Thursday night could bring our first round. Subsequent chances for showers/storms will depend on where the outflow boundaries and effective front set up beyond that.

It looks like a period or two of severe storms should be possible based on the warm and humid environment with decent synoptic forcing.

Beyond Sunday, a closed upper low will set up over the west coast. This should keep us in the warm and humid southerly flow for a while, so expect small chances for showers and storms in this pattern.

Cronce

AVIATION

Issued 1114 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

An area of light showers over central MN and southwest WI is associated with mid level vorticity advection and weak low level warm air advection. This forcing will continue to slowly shift eastward overnight into Monday. With cloud bases between 8000 and 10kft and dry air below it, only sprinkles and light rain are making it to the ground. Virga is possible.

Steady northeast winds and continued mid level clouds are expected through Monday afternoon, especially closer to the lakeshore.

Cronce

MARINE

Issued 1114 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Widespread gales are not anticipated through the period across the open waters of Lake Michigan. 30.4 inch high pressure will remain entrenched across the Hudson Bay through Monday, resulting in generally north to northeasterly breezes. The center of the high will build south over Lake Michigan Tuesday and Tuesday night, leading to generally north-northeast winds over southern Lake Michigan and light westerlies further north. Said high will gradually shift east on Wednesday, allowing winds to trend southerly across the entirety of the lake. 29.7 inch low pressure will shift from the Canadian Great Plains into Ontario Wednesday night through Thursday, resulting in increasing southwesterly winds across the waters. Gusts up to 30 knots will be possible over the northern third of the lake during this time frame.

The weather pattern will trend more active regionally Thursday night into the weekend, with multiple chances for showers and storms returning to the open waters. Strong storm potential remains uncertain at this time, with trends being monitored over coming forecasts.

Cronce

FIRE WEATHER

Issued 1114 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

With little measurable rainfall anticipated overnight and precip- free conditions continuing, a combination of warm & dry air will lead to widespread relative humidities in the lower 20 percent range each afternoon from Monday through Wednesday. Light winds are expected to keep fire weather conditions well below Red Flag Warning thresholds. Exercise caution if planning to burn.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.