textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- East central WI may see some light snow Saturday morning, no accumulation expected.

- A quick burst of snow will be possible over east central WI Sunday evening, but this area of snow could expand to larger portions of southern WI. Minor accumulations expected.

- Polar air to remain over southern WI through the weekend, then relatively mild temperatures for next week.

SHORT TERM

Issued 200 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Today through Saturday night:

High pressure strengthening and pushing in overhead this morning through the rest of today/tonight. Lower clouds will likely stick around over the next few hours before clouds start to break up a bit and dissipate. A period of clear to partly cloudy skies today. Despite high pressure overhead we should see high clouds push back in tonight with 500mb moisture sliding in from the west.

This moisture will remain in the region through Saturday morning with a fairly moist column overall. In addition there will likely be a period of low to mid level WAA and perhaps even some weak shortwave activity Saturday morning that may bring a few snow showers to east central parts of WI. South of that region the low level dry air looks to be too much to overcome while toward east central WI the dry air looks much shallower with potential to be overcome a bit more. Light snow possible but remains unlikely and even in the case it does snow it would be quite light with no accumulation expected. Later Saturday into Saturday evening moisture at all levels slides out likely resulting in clearing conditions certainly by the evening hours, especially as stronger high pressure pushes in.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 300 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

A clipper will cross northern WI Sunday evening, but will likely bring a brief period of light snow to east central WI and possibly all the way down to the IL border. Temperatures will be on the way up, so this will help limit the snow ratios. This could also be light rain for some areas of southern WI.

Above normal temps are expected from Monday through Saturday. Thursday looks warmest with the potential for highs in the mid to upper 40s. A weak shortwave with warm air advection over central or southern WI could bring some light rain on Tuesday. Temperatures in the lower parts of the atmosphere will be close to the freezing mark, so a rain-snow mix is possible.

Precip (rain) associated with a shortwave trough crossing the Ohio River Valley may brush southeast WI on Thursday. Meanwhile, a trough crossing Ontario will drag a cold front across the Upper Great Lakes. It will be a matter of phasing that determines how much precip for southern WI. Right now, the GFS phases the upper waves and brings higher precip amounts.

Models diverge for next weekend but have a signal for a deeper low by late next weekend. The ECWMF (including ensembles) is showing a stronger upper trough that will swing across the Ontario/MN border and Lake Superior Saturday and deepen over the Lower Great Lakes, and then bring much colder air behind it with possible light snow Sat nt. The GFS has a more amplified upper trough out west as it crosses the Northern Plains and deepens that low over the Midwest next weekend.

Cronce

AVIATION

Issued 215 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Areas of MVFR CIGS continue early this morning but CIGS are gradually expected to start dissipating and we are already starting to see some of that across central WI. VFR conditions should return by mid morning to most of southern WI. A period of clear to partly cloudy skies today will be quickly followed by some higher CIGS moving back in with moisture pushing in. Midlevel CIGS overnight remaining VFR. Saturday morning we may see brief periods of MVFR CIGS toward central WI but likely remaining VFR for most places, if not everywhere. CIGS will clear back out by Saturday evening. Otherwise light west to northwest winds expected through the TAF period.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 315 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Brisk west northwest winds will continue today, then lighter winds will take hold for the weekend. This will occur as deep low pressure around 28.9 inches continues to gradually weaken over Hudson Bay, while a ridge of high pressure around 30.1 inches extends from Minnesota into the Ohio Valley. Moderate freezing spray will continue over eastern portions of the lake into this morning.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.