textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms remain possible late tonight. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the main hazards.

- Urban and small stream flooding will remain possible overnight as additional rounds of rain move across southern Wisconsin.

- Rain expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. As rain exits late Tuesday night into Wednesday, some wintry mix is possible.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1051 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Tonight through Sunday:

Showers and storms are approaching from the southwest late this evening and are expected to move through southern Wisconsin into the middle of the night. There is more elevated instability in place than with the round of storms earlier today. Additionally, bulk wind shear is fairly strong to go along with steep mid- level lapse rates. Confidence is high in thunderstorms over the next few hours, with remaining uncertainty with the strength of the storms. Despite the instability and solid lapse rates, storms upstream are struggling to get very tall this evening, which is currently limiting the hail threat. Additionally, the limited surface instability will play a role in limiting tornado and wind potential with the upcoming storms. That said, this is a fairly dynamic system with strong winds aloft, so the potential remains for the storms to tap some of these higher winds. Not out of the question to see a brief spin up too if the storms can get more organized and introduce a QLCS tornado threat.

Widespread showers and storms should clear the forecast area to the east by around 3-4 am tonight, with lingering showers possible the rest of the night into Saturday morning as the trailing cold front moves through. Temps will remain mild overnight into early Sat morning ahead of the cold front, with breezy winds and falling temps then expected the remainder of the day tomorrow behind the front.

A surface ridge will quickly slide through the area Saturday night, with southerly winds developing overnight into Sunday behind the high and ahead of an approaching low well to the northwest. Breezy southwest winds on Sunday will combine with plenty of sunshine for a quick recovery of well above normal temps. Highs will likely approach or hit the 60 degree mark most places.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 1051 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Monday through Friday:

Even milder conditions are likely Monday as the southwest low level flow continues in combination with another mostly sunny day. Highs in the mid to upper 60s are expected across the forecast area.

A cold front is expected to drop through the area later Monday into Monday night, with cooler conditions likely on Tuesday. Low pressure riding along the baroclinic zone is currently expected to move through the region just south of the WI/IL border later Tuesday through Tuesday night, bringing rain chances back to the forecast area. Not out of the question to see a little snow on Wednesday as the low winds up east of the area and colder air wraps in behind the low.

It will likely remain cooler on Thursday as high pressure briefly moves through, with latest models suggesting low pressure will bring precip chances to southern Wisconsin Thursday night into Friday. Plenty of uncertainty remains with this system, particularly with the timing/placement/strength and resultant precip type/amounts.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 1051 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A brief hole in the low stratus continues this evening, aside from some IFR clouds and lingering fog in the far northern forecast area. Breezy southwesterly winds (40-50kt) aloft (2,000 ft AGL) will result in continued low level wind shear into tonight.

From 10 PM to 4 AM CST the next round of thunderstorms is expected to track eastward across the forecast area, with the potential for some strong to severe storms (damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible). Ceilings are likely to decline to IFR levels with this activity. Rain showers decrease in coverage towards daybreak Saturday, with PROB30 for rain lingering through much of the morning hours. Surface winds veer west and eventually northwest through Saturday morning as a cold front crosses the region.

Sheppard/DDV

MARINE

Issued 1051 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Low pressure around 29.6 inches centered over Iowa will track northeastward across Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan through the overnight hours, deepening to 29.5 inches. Southwesterly winds will prevail ahead of this low through the overnight hours, with one last round of showers and thunderstorms crossing the lake after midnight. Light to modest winds and milder temps will also create conditions favorable for marine fog to develop at times this evening into Saturday morning. Thus a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for periodic drops in visibilities to less than 1 nm at times. The low will drag a cold front across the Upper Great Lakes into Saturday morning. Will see breezy west to northwesterly winds behind the front and usher out the marine fog by late Saturday morning. Westerly winds will prevail through Saturday night before increasing and turning more southwesterly for Sunday into Monday as a series of two low pressure systems develop and track north of Lake Michigan through this time frame. Cannot rule out a brief potential for Gales Sunday and Monday for the northern third of the open waters of Lake Michigan.

The current Small Craft Advisory for tonight into Saturday morning may eventually need to be extended into Saturday afternoon, as breezy westerly winds may linger. Another advisory is likely on Sunday due to southwest winds gusting 25 to 30 knots.

Sheppard/DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until noon Saturday.

Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 9 AM Saturday.