textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters north of North Point Lighthouse and all of the open waters until middle morning on Memorial Day. Patchy dense fog may occur close to the Lake Michigan shore.

- Mostly dry this week, with the only precipitation coming with a small chance (around 20 percent) later tonight into Monday morning (mainly further west) and a chance (25 to 35 percent) on Wednesday. - Warm temperatures in the 80s are expected for Memorial Day into Wednesday. Highs in the upper 80s are forecast on Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued 810 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Patchy dense fog may occur close to the Lake Michigan shore tonight into middle morning on Memorial Day, if it moves onshore from the lake. See Marine section for more information on the Dense Fog Advisory over Lake Michigan.

There are mainly small chances (20 to 30 percent) for some showers and a few storms to move into western portions of the area overnight into Monday morning. The main area of warm air advection and the low level jet axis should remain far enough to the west to keep most of this activity there. CAMs seem to generally support this, but some do have some weakening showers moving into the far western areas later tonight or early Monday morning.

Otherwise, mostly clear skies tonight should give way to some middle level clouds overnight into Memorial Day. There may be diurnal cumulus clouds as well in the afternoon hours on Memorial Day. Light southeast to south winds tonight should become southwest on Memorial Day, with a southeast lake breeze for areas near the lake in the afternoon. Highs should reach the middle 80s Monday for most of the area, turning cooler near the lake.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 140 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Some moisture aloft with some shortwave energy as well as a strengthening LLJ will trigger some showers and storms to the northwest of the CWA tonight, toward central MN. These will gradually track east overnight into Monday morning. CAMs indicate that some of the showers/weak storms will enter the western CWA. However, as this pushes east is will impinge on drier air for much of the column with decreasing forcing, particularly from the LLJ. Thus it appears as though any linger precip to the west will quickly dissipate as it pushes into a much drier air mass to the east. Perhaps some showers and even a rumble of thunder in the western CWA but will likely dissipate by around Madison. This will leave a very quiet rest of the day Monday with highs climbing to the 80s for much of southern WI.

Monday night we will start to move into an upper level ridge setup which will bring us very warm temperatures for Tuesday with modest southwest flow on the backside of a surface high. There will likely be some precip in the midwest region, primarily focused along a warm front to he north. If we see any precip it would most likely during the evening and night timeframe for both Monday night and Tuesday night as a result of some better low level moisture in these timeframes. The better chance of the 2 will be Tuesday night as a developing high over the UP may shunt the warm front a tad south enough to potentially bring it into play for the northern parts of the CWA. Chances continue to remain limited for this timeframe regardless but a slight uptick for Tuesday night. The upper levels will definitely suggest drier conditions and thus anything Tuesday night would be very front and low level moisture dependent.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 140 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Wednesday through Sunday:

Into the day Wednesday if we see the front has been pushed south enough it may very well introduce precip chances across southern WI with the developing high to the north. It should be mentioned that conditions aloft remain unfavorable given the upper ridge overhead however, even the low level moisture environment is not great. I remain skeptical of what large scale models are showing for Wednesday as this is a very dry general environmental signal with very limited forcing mechanisms as well. But Wednesday definitely remains the best chances for the week for precip and storms.

Thursday and Friday remain in the same underlying pattern with large scale ridging overhead and stronger surface high pressure overhead which will keep things dry for both days. Into the weekend conditions may remain dry but uncertainty will increase as the ridge moves to the east and breaks down. Currently models suggest high pressure to the north may remain in place keeping the region dry but given the increased messiness of forcing in the upper levels it makes for uncertainty as if the high breaks down then precip may become much more likely. Thus the weekend while currently trending drier has some concern for precip chances given upper level trends.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 810 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Patchy dense fog may occur close to the Lake Michigan shore tonight into middle morning on Memorial Day, if it moves onshore from the lake. Kept any mention of fog out of the terminals near Lake Michigan for now, but there could be a period of 2 to 5 mile visibility that occurs at times.

There are mainly small chances (20 to 30 percent) for some showers and a few storms to move into western portions of the area overnight into Monday morning.

Otherwise, mostly clear skies tonight should give way to some middle level clouds overnight into Memorial Day. There may be diurnal cumulus clouds as well in the afternoon hours on Memorial Day.

Light southeast to south winds tonight should become southwest on Memorial Day, with a southeast lake breeze for terminals near the lake in the afternoon.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 810 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

High pressure around 30.2 inches developing over the lake tonight will bring modest south the southwest winds. As the high develops, dense fog will continue to spread across the lake. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect tonight into middle morning on Memorial Day for all of the open waters of Lake Michigan, as well as the nearshore waters north of North Point Lighthouse. Patchy dense fog may occur south of there.

The high pressure system will push to the east on Memorial Day, but will keep precipitation mostly away from the lake. There may be small chances for showers or a storm over the northern part of the lake later in the day into Monday night, with a warm front in the vicinity.

Some chances for showers and storms are forecast later Tuesday into Wednesday, as the front sags back south as a cold front. High pressure around 30.3 inches is expected to build toward eastern Hudson Bay Tuesday into Wednesday, which may help push the cold front southward across the region.

Kuroski/Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 10 AM Monday.