textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild to start the workweek, with the warmth peaking on Tuesday (highs in the mid 40s).

- The next low pressure system brings 20-30% chances for rain on Tuesday, followed by 40-70% chances for light snow Wednesday.

- Turning colder for the second half of the week into the weekend with additional chances for light snow.

UPDATE

Issued 955 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Forecast remains on track this morning. Look for partly sunny skies to continue through this afternoon, with low to mid level clouds gradually thickening ahead of an approaching disturbance after midnight. Still anticipate some precip potential during the predawn hours as the disturbance enters the western Great Lakes, though the southern extent of activity will be greatly limited by dry air below the 700 mb level. Will thus need to evaluate PoPs in the afternoon forecast update, with the initial expectation being that most locations near and south of I-94 will stay dry through the overnight. Will continue to monitor trends and finalize adjustments this afternoon. Expect any precip to be mostly/all rain given mild conditions.

Quigley

SHORT TERM

Issued 242 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Today through Tuesday:

Mild, dry, and breezy conditions are expected today, with highs reaching the low to mid 40s. West to southwest winds will gust to around 20 MPH at times, especially this morning.

Lows tonight will fall to around freezing early in the evening, and then warm overnight, reaching the mid 30s by daybreak. Light rain will push southeastward into the region early Tuesday morning. The best chances will be across central Wisconsin, with only minimal chances (less than 20%) south of I-94. Despite widespread clouds, highs on Tuesday are expected to reach the mid 40s in many locations.

Boxell

LONG TERM

Issued 242 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Tuesday night through Sunday:

A cold front will pass through the area Tuesday evening, with temperatures rapidly falling Tuesday night, reaching the low to mid 20s by daybreak on Wednesday. Another shortwave and associated cold front will pass through the area early Tuesday, reinforcing the cold air. Look for temperatures to only warm a degree or two on Wednesday, with low to mid 20s expected for most of the day, along with very gusty north to northwest winds.

Scattered snow showers are expected for much of the region on Wednesday given the cold, cyclonic flow aloft. Closer to Lake Michigan, a slight northeastward component to the low level winds may bring lake effect snow onshore, particularly during the first half of the day. Subtle changes in the wind fields will greatly affect where any lake effect snow sets up, so this potential may shift around a bit over the next day or so as the details become better refined.

Thursday looks to remain cold, but not as windy, with temperatures in the 20s.

A brief warmup is possible Friday before another strong clipper moves into the region for the weekend. Much colder temperatures (highs in the teens, lows around or below zero) are favored for this timeframe, along with chances for light snow.

Boxell

AVIATION

Issued 955 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR flight categories prevail this morning, with said conditions expected to persist through the majority of the period at all aerodromes. SCT to BKN mid-upper level clouds will linger overhead into this evening. An upper disturbance will move into the western Great Lakes after midnight, bringing thickening low to mid-level clouds. Precipitation---mainly -RA ---remains possible with the system near the end of the period, though dry low level air will likely limit the southern extent of activity. Will thus need to evaluate the need for PROB30 -RA groups at I-94 terminals in the 18Z update. Confidence in -RA remains higher further north near SBM, so will be maintaining the aerodrome's PROB30 -RA group in coming updates.

Quigley

MARINE

Issued 242 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Breezy southwest winds will continue this morning as the region remains situated between high pressure of 30.5 inches over the Tennessee Valley and low pressure of 29.5 inches over Hudson Bay. Winds will gradually ease today as both features move east.

Breezy south to southwest winds are expected Tuesday ahead of another low pressure system around 29.3 inches. This low pressure system will track east across Lake Superior Tuesday afternoon, shifting winds to northwesterly Tuesday night. There is increasing potential for gales and moderate freezing spray late Tuesday night and through the day on Wednesday in association with this system.

Boxell

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.