textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory in effect for early Monday morning for all of S WI with the exception of Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties.

- A clipper system brings higher end shower chances (60 to 90 percent) for Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will be possible, with a conditional threat for a stronger storm or two Tuesday afternoon

SHORT TERM

Issued 1158 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Today through Tuesday night:

Overnight temperatures have trended slightly warmer, but a frost advisory will still remain for all of southern WI save for MKE, Racine, and Kenosha Counties.

High pressure will move overhead today, cotinuing to promote dry conditions. The weak pressure gradient will promote a lake breeze during the late morning and into the afternoon, which will push east to southeast winds from the lake inland with time. As a result, highs in the 50s are expected for counties close to Lake Michigan, while highs in the low 60s are expected far inland.

The high pressure will then quickly shuffle east Monday night as a low pressure moves from the northern plains to the Arrowhead region of MN by dawn on Tuesday. The low will drag a warm front over Wisconsin and widespread showers are expected Tuesday morning. MUCAPE will be non-existent, so no thunder is expected with the morning round. Showery precip may continue into the afternoon as the warm sector of the low pressure system moves overhead, with the low pressure center moving into northern WI during the late morning into the afternoon. Models then suggest there may be some redevelopment along the cold front over southeast Wisconsin late Tuesday afternoon. Airmass recovery doesn't look overly conducive to building large CAPE and only skinny CAPE supporting between 500 and 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE will result along the front. Effective shear of 30 knots will be enough for storm organization though, and any stronger storms that sustain themselves may feature small hail and gusty winds. The SPC has us in a marginal risk on Tuesday, with the severe weather threat looking isolated at best.

CMiller

LONG TERM

Issued 1206 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

Temperatures dip on Wednesday in the post-frontal CAA regime with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. High pressure moves in and lingers on Thursday with temperatures rebounding to near 70.

A more active pattern then sets up Friday into early next week. Multiple waves of warm advection look possible, with on and off shower and storm chances. The NBM maintains 25 to 45% PoPs Friday through Monday given the nebulous rain chances.

CMiller

AVIATION

Issued 1138 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions will remain tonight through tomorrow. Expect dry conditions save for a few scattered sprinkles this evening.

Light northwest winds will become northeasterly tonight, and then light and variable tomorrow morning as the center of a high pressure system moves nearby. With the weak pressure gradient present tomorrow, a lake breeze will likely start pushing inland starting at 15z and continuing into Monday evening.

CMiller

MARINE

Issued 1138 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

High pressure is expected to move from southern Manitoba to over Lake Michigan by late tomorrow morning. Relatively light and variable winds are expected through tomorrow night. Low pressure should then move gradually east southeast across or north of Lake Superior Tuesday into Tuesday night. The low will bring a cold front southeast through the region. Gusty south to southeast winds are expected ahead of the front Tuesday, with a few gales possible during a brief period Tuesday afternoon. Wind then veer west to northwest behind it and remaining gusty for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

High pressure should then move southeast into the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing lighter winds.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Frost Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067- WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 until 8 AM Monday.

LM...None.