textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow accumulations (1 inch or less) are expected Thursday morning, which may impact the morning commute.

- A mix of light snow (under 0.5") and freezing drizzle is likely Thursday night into early Friday afternoon. This may impact the Friday morning commute.

- A Gale Watch is in effect for the open waters of Lake Michigan mid-morning Friday through the evening hours. Northerly winds gusting 35 to 40 knots and building waves in ice free areas are expected.

UPDATE

Issued 601 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

The forecast still looks on track for the light snow affecting the area Thursday morning. This should affect the morning commute, especially in northern and eastern portions of the area. Amounts up to an inch in northeastern and eastern portions of the area are forecast, with lower amounts elsewhere. Rates up to one half inch per hour are expected, with locally higher rates toward Sheboygan possible. It appears that the air column should dry out enough to limit any potential for freezing drizzle later in the morning and into the afternoon. Warm air advection and increasing southwest winds Thursday should bring highs into the lower to middle 30s.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 243 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Quiet weather is expected this evening with mostly clear skies and light winds likely. Clouds will then increase tonight ahead of an approaching trough, with gradually rising temps the second half of the night as warm advection aloft kicks in. A sold swath of warm advection and frontogenesis is then expected along and ahead of the trough tomorrow morning, bringing a round of snow showers to the forecast area. Snowfall rates could be up to 0.5" an hour with more moderate snow showers, with snow totals ranging from a tenth or two southwest of Madison to upwards of an inch towards Fond du Lac and Sheboygan. This system will likely impact the morning commute with snow covered roads. It's not out of the question to see a little freezing drizzle late Thu morning into early Thu afternoon as the precip winds down, but model soundings hold on to saturation in the ice growth region until around when then precip comes to an end. So, confidence is higher in precip type remaining snow vs a changeover to freezing drizzle. High temps tomorrow will be near to a couple degrees above normal for a change, reaching the low to mid 30s across southern Wisconsin.

A dry period is likely later Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening, before another round of light precip moves through Thursday night into Friday morning. This precip, associated with a shortwave and cold front, will likely be more of a mixed variety of snow and freezing drizzle given a lack of saturation in the ice crystal growth region at times. There is a better chance to see mainly snow northeast towards the Fond du Lac and Sheboygan areas where saturation will be deeper. Overall snowfall amounts will be less than tomorrow, with totals likely 0.5" or less. Even so, the timing of this snow along with the potential for the freezing drizzle could lead to morning commute impacts once again. Even milder temps are expected by late morning into early afternoon Fri, with highs in the mid to upper 30s likely. Falling temps are then expected mid to late afternoon into the evening behind the cold front, with temps likely dropping to the single digits by daybreak Saturday.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 243 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Saturday through Wednesday:

High pressure and colder temps are expected under high pressure on Saturday. An area of warm advection aloft will then bring increased cloud and precip chances (30% or less) back to southern Wisconsin Saturday evening/night. Latest models suggest the potential for light snow will just brush the northeast half of the forecast area.

Quiet weather is then likely Sunday as the better forcing moves east and high pressure lingers over the region. Upper ridging will build into the area Sunday into Monday, with warming temps likely through early week. Could crack 40 degrees for the first time in a while by Monday or Tuesday. A couple models are suggesting some weak forcing may produce a little light precip Monday night into Tuesday, but confidence is low at this time.

High pressure is currently expected to move back in on Wednesday, with the potential for somewhat cooler temps as well.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 601 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Light southwest winds are expected tonight into early Thursday, before becoming gusty later Thursday morning into the afternoon. Clear skies early this evening will become broken to overcast by midnight and into the overnight hours, as middle to high clouds move in. Ceilings will gradually lower by 12Z Thursday.

A period of light snow is expected to move southeast through the area Thursday morning. Snowfall amounts up to an inch are forecast toward Sheboygan, with one half to one inch for Waukesha, Milwaukee and Kenosha. Madison may see around a half inch. Snowfall rates of one quarter to one half inch per hour are possible, highest toward Sheboygan. Rates may get a little higher in that area at times.

The snow should end around midday. The snow character would lean toward wetter and heavier, as milder temperatures move into the area. Ceilings should drop to the 1500 to 2000 foot AGL range with the snow, with visibility of 1 to 4 miles, which will vary at times.

It appears that things should dry out enough to negate any potential for freezing drizzle later in the morning and into the afternoon.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 243 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure of 30.5 inches overhead this afternoon will shift to the southeast this evening into tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave. Light winds will pick up later tonight into Thursday out of the southwest as the pressure gradient tightens.

Low pressure of 29.4 inches will head eastward through James Bay Thursday night and continue eastward into Quebec on Friday, dragging a cold front through the Great Lakes region. Moderate westerly winds Thursday night will increase out of the northwest Friday behind the front. A Gale Watch is in effect for the open waters from mid-morning Friday through the evening hours, with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed eventually for the nearshore waters. Additionally, a period of heavy freezing spray is looking likely from Friday afternoon through Friday night.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday to midnight Saturday.