textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A narrow band of accumulating snow is expected to develop late this evening just east and north of Madison, then shift east to the MKE metro area after midnight. 1-2 inches of snow is forecast. - Milder temps mainly in the 30s with a couple days in the 40s are forecast for next week. Mostly dry conditions are forecast.

UPDATE

Issued 628 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Snow is beginning to develop across southern and central Wisconsin this evening. WAA is kicking in and the upper level vorticity is in place. As snow continues to develop will be keeping an eye on how strong the mid level frontogenesis becomes. This snow will be fairly transient, which will help spread out snow totals across a larger area. Best chances remain along and east of a line from the Dells to Madison to Janesville. The one caveat to the snow right now is the dry air in the low levels. This will delay the start time of the snow by a couple hours. Dewpoint depressions are large around 10 degrees or more across southern Wisconsin. So despite the radar reflectivity already this evening, very little if any snow is making it to the ground yet. That stronger mid level Fgen will help overcome this dry air overtime.

Patterson

SHORT TERM

Issued 118 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Tonight through Tuesday:

Mid level cloud cover via warm advection has already increased across much of srn WI this afternoon. A 500 mb vorticity maximum over ND is expected to track sewd across srn WI late tnt, while another vort max over the central high plains will track across srn IA. The main level of concern is 600-700 mb where a shortwave trough and fairly strong baroclinic zone will move through the area. Mid level frontogenesis could become fairly strong, but there are differences among the models in strength and placement. It also is transient as it shifts sewd through the night, but some areas could see 3-5 hours of snow.

At this time the best placement for a nw-se oriented band of snow shifting esewd with time would initially be just north and east of Madison, reaching the MKE metro area after midnight. Much of the accumulating snow would end by 12Z Sun, but very light snow and light lake effect snow (sely boundary layer flow but instability is limited) could linger a bit in the morning. Will forecast 1-2 inches of snow tnt for ern WI.

Low pressure and a couple upper waves will then track across srn Canada for Sun-Tue. This will bring sly winds and warm advection with high temps warming well into the 30s and even some 40s. The winds will shift nwly on Tue with the passage of a weak cold front but still mild temps as mentioned. This will remain a dry period.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 118 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Wednesday through Saturday:

Weak shortwave troughs in nwly flow aloft may affect srn WI at times during this period, followed by upper ridging late in the week. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will eventually build swd into the wrn Great Lakes late in the week, shifting into the nrn Ohio Valley for Sat. 20-30 percent chances for light snow are forecast late Wed nt-Thu nt. Above normal temps are forecast for this period.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 628 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Largely VFR to MVFR conditions through the period. Light to moderate snow is developing across central and southern Wisconsin this evening. Snow is expected primarily along and east of a line from the Dells to Madison to Janesville (DLL - MSN - JVL). Ceilings around 6 to 3 kft are expected with the snow showers and visibilities will primarily be around 2-4 SM. Can't rule out visibilities dropping at low as 1 SM under the heaviest band of snow fall, but this should be brief. For eastern terminals the light snow and MVFR cigs will likely persist into Sunday morning. By mid to late morning Sunday, skies will attempt to clear and VFR conditions will return when the snow ends.

East-southeast winds this evening will be breezy at times with gusts up to 25 MPH. Winds gradually become more southeasterly by Sunday morning then turn to due southerly Sunday night. Breezy winds are expected through the period.

Patterson

MARINE

Issued 118 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Lessening north winds today will give way to light and variable winds tonight as high pressure of 30.4 inches moves across Lake Michigan. As high pressure slowly moves toward the lower Great Lakes late tonight and Sunday, modest southeast winds will develop. Modest south to southwest winds are then expected Monday and Monday night as low pressure around 29.7 inches moves across Ontario. The trailing cold front will then pass across the lake Tuesday morning with modest west to northwest winds taking hold into the middle of the week.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.