textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread frost and below freezing temps expected tonight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most of southern WI, with a Frost Advisory in effect over far southeast WI.

- Scattered rain/sleet showers will continue into the early evening over southern Wisconsin.

- More active pattern early next week with increased showers and storm chances Sunday through midweek. A short warm up is expected Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s, respectively.

SHORT TERM

Issued 222 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

A scattered rain/sleet showers will continue into the early evening as PVA moves through the area in association with a trough aloft. Tonight, clouds are expected to clear over much of central to south central Wisconsin as subsidence builds in behind the trough, allowing temperatures to tank into the upper 20s to around 30. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight into tomorrow morning for most of southern Wisconsin for widespread frost. Some clouds are expected to linger tonight over far southeast Wisconsin, which may prevent temperatures from dropping down to near 30, but still hover around freezing. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Milwaukee, Kenosha, and Racine Counties.

Tomorrow, a weak surface ridge is expected to pass over the state. There may be widespread sunshine in the morning, before daytime heating causes widespread cu to form in the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. Frost headlines are not expected Saturday night into Sunday, as warm advection is expected driven by southwesterly winds Saturday night.

CMiller

LONG TERM

Issued 226 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Sunday through Friday:

An active pattern then sets up Sunday into the middle of next week as northwest flow will allow for multiple troughs to rotate through the area. Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, WAA and a weak sfc trough will rotate through, bringing rain chances (~30% PoPs). More warm advection is then expected behind the Sunday trough as another low approaches from the northwest Sunday night into Monday.

On Monday, the low is expected to drag a cold front through the area primarily during the late afternoon and into the evening. GFS model soundings would suggest some potential for hail and gusty winds with any strong storms along the front, provided surface instability is realized. However, the GFS, ECMWF, RRFS and NAM all disagree on the timing of the front, which would have huge bearing on the strong storm potential. Following the front, a cooler pattern is then expected mid to late week next week. The reservoir of cold air aloft will contribute to continuing chances for showery precip until the trough flattens late next week.

CMiller

AVIATION

Issued 229 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Scattered rain/sleet showers will continue into this evening before dissipating. Subsidence should then allow MVFR to VFR ceilings to become SCT along the lakeshore and FEW inland. Winds will be light and variable overnight.

VFR conditions then continue tomorrow, with daytime cu expected in the afternoon. Winds will remain light, and come around from northwesterly to southwesterly through the day. CMiller

MARINE

Issued 246 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Winds will generally remain light and variable to northerly tonight into the first half of tomorrow as high pressure sinks southeast over Lake Michigan. Winds are then expected to become light and variable for a time again Saturday afternoon before turning southerly Saturday night. Winds then grow breezy Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure approaches the lake, dragging a cold front over it. Winds will only become westerly behind the front for a time, returning to southwesterly on Monday ahead of another stronger low.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067- WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070...midnight Saturday to 8 AM Saturday.

Frost Advisory...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...midnight Saturday to 8 AM Saturday.

LM...None.