textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Minimum wind chills in the negative teens are expected tonight into early Friday morning.

- Lake effect showers are likely Friday, mainly during the morning and afternoon hours, with decreasing chances Friday night into Saturday. 1 to 2 inches of accumulation are expected for lakeshore areas, and accumulations up to half an inch for areas farther inland. Locally higher amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible if the snow bands persist for a longer period of time in any particular location.

- Light snow accumulations are likely across southern Wisconsin later Sunday into Sunday night

UPDATE

Issued 1000 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Tonight, expecting light northwesterly to calm winds, with lows around zero. A deck of mid-level clouds slowly creeping southward may keep central to southeastern Wisconsin in the upper single digits. Cloud cover will increase as lake effect showers meander eastward late tonight into Friday.

Aside from slight changes in initiation timing of lake effect showers on the 00Z meso model runs, modeling continues to show high confidence (70-90 percent chances) of snowfall across Lake Michigan counties Friday. Continued expectations of 1-2 inches along the lakeshore Friday morning through Friday afternoon, and localized amounts of 3-4 inches. The majority of meso modeling does show individual areas of 3-5 inches in very localized areas, but due to the more showery/meso-low nature of the band, still have low confidence in exactly where those localized areas will end up.

MH

SHORT TERM

Issued 146 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Tonight through Saturday:

Increasing clouds are expected tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave, with the wave then dropping south through the forecast area during the day Friday. The prevailing 1000-850 mb flow will become northeast and increase for a time as the shortwave moves through, with confidence continuing to increase in a period of lake effect snow showers. The best chance for these showers will be across lakeshore counties during the day tomorrow, with decreasing chances Friday night into Saturday as the flow aloft becomes more northerly. Snow totals are expected to be in the 1-2" range for eastern areas. It's still not out of the question for locally higher amounts of 2-4" if the lake effect bands stall for a time in any particular location. Overall though, it does look like the bands will generally be on the move tomorrow, which should limit accumulations most places.

Confidence is also increasing for some light snow farther inland tomorrow as the trough drops through, with the forcing from the trough likely combining with increased moisture off the lake. The best chance to see inland amounts up to 0.5" will be across the southeast half of the forecast area, given the low level northeast fetch off the lake.

Aside from lingering clouds in lakeshore areas, mostly clear skies are expected Saturday under the influence of strong high pressure centered over the Southern Plains. After another day with highs in the teens Friday, high temperatures may might crack 20 on Saturday, the first time in over a week.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 146 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

Northwest flow will prevail through the extended period. This will result in temperatures closer to normal, though likely remaining a few degrees below average values for early February. Additionally, this flow will open the door to an active shortwave pattern, with snow chances expected every 1 to 2 days.

The first shortwave is expected to come through late Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours. Models are in pretty good agreement with the timing and strength of this wave, with confidence increasing in a round of light accumulating snowfall across southern Wisconsin. ECMWF and GFS ensemble probabilities for measurable precip over 24 hours are on the higher end for this period, so opted to bump up the forecast precip chances Sun evening/night.

An additional pair of shortwaves are expected to move through Tuesday through the end of the week. Though confidence is high that these systems will move through the region, models vary a bit with the finer details of timing/strength/placement of the waves. As a result, precip chances remain less than 50% for the last few days of the extended forecast.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 1000 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mid level clouds in the 8000 to 10000 ft range have developed across much of southern Wisconsin, expected to continue through the remainder of the overnight hours. Light northwesterly to calm winds tonight becoming steady and northerly into Friday morning. Meanwhile, MVFR ceilings will progress into Lake Michigan terminals.

A broken band of lake effect snow showers will build into Lakeshore counties early Friday morning, bringing reduced visibilities, MVFR ceilings, and rates up to 1 inch per hour at times. Expecting widespread accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with a few pockets of 2 to 4 inches possible if showers persist over a single area for an extended period of time. Some showers will progress inland toward JVL (20 to 30 percent chances), but generally only expecting 0.5 inch or less with these showers.

Snow will taper off into Friday night, although a few showers may persist along the lakeshore on and off into Saturday morning. VFR conditions will prevail outside of these showers. Northerly winds Friday will shift to northwesterly into Saturday.

MH

MARINE

Issued 146 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Northwest winds up to 15 knots will persist into this evening. Winds will then increase and veer north to northeast tonight into Friday as a shortwave drops through the area. Strong high pressure of 30.9 inches over the Northern Plains tomorrow will head south over the weekend, reaching the southern United States by Sunday while weakening to 30.5 inches. Breezy northerly winds are expected through Saturday as this high passes by to the west. A period of moderate freezing spray is likely from later Friday through Saturday given the breezy conditions and lingering cold airmass. Breezy southerly winds are then expected Sunday behind the departing high and ahead of an approaching trough.

A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for the nearshore waters Friday and Saturday given the breezy north to northeast winds and resultant building waves. Some ice coverage across the nearshore waters is expected through the weekend though, which will likely cut down on wave heights in spots.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...6 AM Friday to 3 PM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM Friday to 9 PM Saturday.