textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southerly winds 30 to 40 mph expected through mid afternoon. Higher gusts are possible.

- Milder temperatures and breezy conditions today, followed by widespread showers (80-90 percent with around a quarter inch accumulation with up to a half inch possible) this evening with the cold frontal passage. A few rumbles of thunder are possible.

- Another round of showers with a few storms (60-90+ percent) are expected Thursday night, followed by an active weather pattern of warm and humid conditions and more showers and storms Sunday into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Tonight through Saturday:

The developing low out to the west will begin to push in this afternoon with the base of the low around the central US/Canada border. This low will drag a cold front through the region this evening/night. Forcing and moisture will be plentiful here with the front as the primary forcing mechanism with supplemental help from a little midlevel WAA and some PVA aloft ejecting from the strong upper low over SW Ontario. Precip may begin as early as late this afternoon in the northwest CWA with precip ahead of the front but the majority of it will come through Wed evening into the overnight hours primarily along the front. A tiny bit of instability may yield a rumble of thunder or two but for the most part this is expected to be moderate rain showers for a few hours in any given area from NW to SE with rain pushing out of SE WI by Thursday morning.

With the front out of the area Thursday morning expect higher pressure to push in behind it, though this will be fairly short lived. Thursday during the day is expected to remain dry but by Thursday evening expect a warm front to lift north into the area based from a weak low pressure developing in lee of the Rockies into the central Plains. A shortwave aloft, strong WAA on the nose of the LLJ in the low to mid levels with a moist column suggest a very high chance for precip Thursday night with a slug of rain expected. The best chances (90+%) will be for the southern portions of the CWA with lesser chances (40-80%) toward central WI. Thunder looks unlikely given the profiles suggesting very limited instability but we cannot rule out a rumble of thunder, especially if the warm front lifts any farther north than currently expected. Precip will generally push out sometime Friday morning as high pressure nudges in from the northwest, shoving the front back to the south. High pressure will continue to push east but will strengthen into the central Great Lakes region keeping us dry through the day Saturday. East wind off the lake from the high pressure will keep us fairly cool, however.

Later during the day Saturday we will start to see the next system start to push in as a low develops over the north central US. Precip may begin to push in by the late afternoon.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Saturday night through Wednesday:

Southerly low level flow will continue Saturday night through at least Monday per latest models, which will result in even milder conditions late weekend into early next week. Highs into the low to mid 70s are likely for Sunday and Monday. Additionally, expect periods of warm advection aloft and increasing moisture as a couple of shortwaves roll through. This will bring multiple rounds of shower/storm chances Sat night through Monday. Could see some stronger storms Monday or Monday night as the low and associated cold front move through, though confidence in low strength/timing/placement remains not very high at this time given variations among the latest model solutions. Plus, this period is several days out, so plenty of time for the finer details to change.

Kept precip chances going Tuesday as the low slowly exits the region, with cooler temps arriving on the back side of the low for mid-week.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Breezy south winds with mostly high clouds overhead through this afternoon. A front will begin to make its way through southern WI from northwest to southeast late afternoon through the overnight period. This will bring largely widespread showers for a few hours to any individual area with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. A period of MVFR CIGS may coincide with this period of showers but is not certain. In addition, a period of lowered VSBYs may come with the rain as well. Otherwise limited impacts to aviation expected. More westerly type winds return behind the front.

Quiet during the day Thursday with modest west winds and mostly clear skies. However, come late Thursday afternoon into Friday morning will bring moderate to even heavier rain showers to much of southern WI with likely IFR/LIFR CIGS and some impacts to VSBYs with the rain showers. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder with this either.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

High pressure around 30.6 inches have pushed into the eastern US with a low pressure around 29.5 inches tracking along the northern Great Plains and Canadian border will track north of Lake Superior tonight into Thursday morning. The pressure gradient associated with the low and behind the high will be strong. This will result in very breezy southerly winds over Lake Michigan on Wednesday with gale force gusts up to 40 kt. A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern three quarters of the lake through late tonight. Gale Warning remains in effect for the northern nearshore zone and Small Craft the rest of the nearshore zones. A Small Craft will follow for the northern nearshore zone after gales subside.

Behind the front pressure gradient will fall off quickly with high pressure of 30.2 inches nudging in. Much lighter westerly winds are then expected on Thursday in the wake of the cold front. Light and variable winds will prevail into Saturday, until breezy southerly winds return late in the weekend.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872- LMZ874-LMZ876 until 4 AM Thursday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643 until 7 PM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM Thursday.