textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow will wind down through late this afternoon. A dusting of snow (under a half an inch) is then possible mainly east of Madison tonight.

- Very light snow accumulations are likely later Sunday into Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

Issued 230 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Tonight and Saturday:

Lake effect snow will continue to wind down south of Milwaukee through late this afternoon. Widespread clouds will then move back into southern Wisconsin late this afternoon into tonight on the back side of the trough dropping through the region. Looks like there will be enough lift behind this trough to continue snow chances overnight, mainly east of Madison. Model soundings looks fairly saturated across southern Wisconsin, but with little to no lift from Madison westward. Soundings show a bit of lift in the lower levels from the surface up to around 700 mb, with much of this portion of the sounding profile within the dendrite growth zone tonight. There will be a chance of anywhere from a trace up to a half an inch of very dry snow as this lift moves through southern Wisconsin.

Clouds should clear out by mid-morning Saturday, with mostly sunny skies expected the remainder of the day. There is still a chance that a lake effect band could brush the far southeast forecast area tomorrow, mainly south of Milwaukee. The bulk of short term models keep this band locally offshore, though a couple solutions suggest it may briefly move inland. Kept the forecast dry for now given the persistent signal for the band to remain over the lake, but it remains worth keeping an eye on for the potential of a little more snow, likely under an inch. Otherwise, the sunshine and milder temps aloft will likely allow high temps to crack 20 tomorrow for the first time in over a week.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 230 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Northwest flow will prevail through the extended period. This will result in temperatures closer to normal, though likely remaining a few degrees below average values for early February. Additionally, this flow will open the door to an active shortwave pattern, with snow chances expected every 1 to 2 days.

The first shortwave is expected to come through Sunday evening and overnight. Models are in pretty good agreement with the timing and strength of this wave, with confidence increasing in a round of light accumulating snowfall across southern Wisconsin. ECMWF and GFS ensemble probabilities for measurable precip over 24 hours remain on the higher end for this period, so opted to bump up the forecast precip chances Sun afternoon into the night.

An additional pair of shortwaves are expected to move through Tuesday through the end of the week. Though confidence is high that these systems will move through the region, models still vary a bit with the finer details of timing/strength/placement of the waves. As a result, precip chances remain less than 50% for the last few days of the extended forecast.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 230 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Lake effect snow will continue mainly south of Milwaukee through late this afternoon. Visibilities will hang out in the 2 to 5 mile range for the lighter snow rates, with visibilites as low as 1/2 SM within the heavier bands. The snow showers will continue to wind down north to south from 21Z to 00Z.

Clouds will persist tonight into early Saturday as a shortwave exits, with ceilings possibly dipping to MVFR at times. Still looks like there could be a little light snow overnight mainly east of Madison. Any accumulations are expected to be under a half an inch.

Breezy northerly winds today will become northwest for tonight, gradually easing by later tomorrow afternoon as high pressure moves in.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 230 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Lake effect snow showers will prevail into Saturday, mainly across the southern half of the lake. Strong high pressure of 30.8 inches over will track south through the northern and central Great Plains tonight. This will maintain brisk north winds over Lake Michigan through Saturday with a period of moderate freezing spray as well. A ridge of high pressure will then shift across the lake Saturday night with light and variable winds expected. Modest southwest winds will develop for Sunday into Sunday night as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The trough will then pass and shift the winds to northwesterly for Monday.

The timing of the Small Craft Advisory across the nearshore waters still looks good, with conditions gradually falling below advisory criteria north to south tomorrow afternoon and evening.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 3 PM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM Saturday.