textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures remaining 10 to 20-plus degrees above normal through Thursday

- Widespread round of rain (a 50 to 90 percent chance) expected Tuesday night. A few rumbles of thunder are possible.

- More precipitation expected Thursday afternoon into Friday, with rain gradually mixing with and switching over to light snow

- Temperatures trending back toward normal by the weekend

UPDATE

Issued 557 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Expect well above normal but cooler temperatures today compared to yesterday, as east winds off the lake will prevent another run into the 60s for most of southern Wisconsin outside of the far southwestern corner of the state. Some fog/haze may linger through the morning over east central WI as a weak warm front draped over the area will fail to reach portions of eastern Fond du Lac and Sheboygan Counties.

Otherwise rain and a few rumbles of thunder are still on track tonight.

CMiller

SHORT TERM

Issued 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The Remainder of Tonight through Tuesday night.

An area of mid-level clouds will continue to gradually lift through the forecast area tonight, associated with a round of warm air advection aloft. Radar has shown some brief returns, but this will likely remain mainly virga given a lot of dry air in the lower levels.

Mostly cloudy skies and easterly winds will result in cooler conditions Tuesday, most notably near the lake under the onshore winds. Temps will be milder in the southwest as the warmer airmass begins to return ahead of approaching low pressure. Widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder are then expected Tuesday evening/night, as low pressure lifts through the region just northwest of the forecast area. Easterly winds Tuesday will gradually increase through the day, veering southeast to south Tuesday evening/night.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

Precipitation should come to an end by around daybreak Wednesday as the dry slot moves into the forecast area. Clouds should clear out as well, allowing mild conditions and deep mixing. Temps are expected to get up near the 60 degree mark, with the strong low to the northwest and the good mixing resulting in breezy southwest winds gusting to at least 35 mph.

Dry weather will continue into at least early Thursday between low pressure systems. Another low is then expected to push through the area Thursday evening into Friday, bringing more precip chances to southern Wisconsin. Models still vary a bit with the track of the low, which will ultimately impact the timing of any precip transition from rain to snow. The overall picture though is beginning to look more clear, with mainly rain chances later Thursday into Thursday night, transitioning to light snow by daybreak Friday. The exact track of the low will determine if some of the potential snow accumulations sneak into the northwest forecast area, with a blend of models suggesting the northwest may just get clipped.

Mainly dry weather and colder conditons are then expected to move in for the weekend into early next week as high pressure builds in from the northwest. A weak shortwave or two may slide through the area during this time frame, which could bring a little light snow.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 600 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Expect moderate east to southeast winds through today as low pressure approaches from the west. VFR clouds will ceilings ranging from BKN060 to BKN250 are expected through today. Some morning fog is expected over east central WI impacting KSBM. This fog may linger post dawn and then transition to some SCT MVFR to VFR cigs late morning before dissipating. Winds will remain elevated into tonight and rain is expected overnight with a few scattered rumbles of thunder. Southerly to southwesterly wind shear to 40 knots may impact lakeshore terminals Wednesday morning.

CMiller

MARINE

Issued 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Light northerly winds this evening will gradually become easterly overnight as high pressure of 30.1 inches moves in from the northwest. East to southeast winds will then increase later Tuesday into Tuesday night, as strong low pressure around 29.2 inches moves toward the region. Easterly gales are possible later Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon over the northern third of the lake, where a Gale Watch is in effect. The warmer airmass over the chilly lake waters may limit the mixing down of higher gusts elsewhere across the lake. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from later Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.

After somewhat lighter winds later Wednesday into Thursday, winds will likely increase Thursday night into Friday night, as another strong low pressure system around 29.2 inches lifts northeast through the region.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...midnight Wednesday to 4 PM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM Tuesday to 3 PM Wednesday.