textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A period of light snow is expected later tonight into Wednesday morning, as a cold front moves through the area. This may bring slippery roads for the Wednesday morning commute.

- The cold front will bring colder temperatures and wind chills Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night.

- Continued below average temperatures into the weekend.

- Relatively active pattern this weekend into next week, but with low confidence on the details.

UPDATE

Issued 1027 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low stratus is quite thin across the area, as visible imagery shows the snow cover beneath it, with the smoke stacks across parts of the area giving brief clearing. There is some uncertainty with if there will be breaks in this shallow low stratus deck this afternoon, before more moves into the area tonight. The better chances may be in eastern parts of the area for any scattering out of this low deck. Winds will shift to the southwest into this afternoon, with highs in the middle 20s expected.

Warm air advection tonight into Wednesday morning should keep temperatures fairly steady, before a cold front moves southeast through the area Wednesday morning. The front should move southeast of the area by midday. The front will bring a period of light snow to the area later tonight into Wednesday morning, with some modest low level frontogenesis response and the modest warm air advection.

The moisture profiles on area forecast soundings are saturated for a three to five hour window, generally speaking, later tonight into Wednesday morning. There may be around one half inch of snowfall during this period, which may bring slippery driving conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. Amounts may be a little higher if the upward vertical motion gets stronger with the 12Z suite of guidance.

Temperatures will then shift northwest Wednesday afternoon and night, with strong cold air advection bringing colder temperatures and wind chills into the area. Temperatures will fall in the afternoon and through Wednesday night, with lows in the single digits below zero over most of the area by 12Z Thursday.

Wind chills of 14 below to 19 below zero are expected as well later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and again Thursday night into Friday morning. At this time, not expecting wind chills to drop below 20 below zero, but will continue to monitor this potential.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 210 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Today and Tonight:

The light snow that affected the region Monday afternoon and evening has moved east as of early this morning. A few breaks in the clouds are occurring across southeastern Wisconsin, but additional stratus is moving in from the west. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions are expected today, with highs in the mid 20s. No additional precipitation is expected.

Increasing southerly flow tonight will keep temperatures from falling much, with overnight lows generally in the upper teens to around 20. Wind chills will be in the upper single digits to low teens. Light snow will move in from the north toward daybreak on Wednesday, along and ahead of a cold front.

Boxell

LONG TERM

Issued 210 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

Breezy winds are expected with the frontal passage on Wednesday, along with continued chances for light snow. While most of the area should see at least a few flakes, QPF and thus snow amounts look very light; generally less than a half inch. Highs on Wednesday will likely occur around noon, with temperatures falling through the 20s during the afternoon hours.

High pressure moves toward the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with clearing skies. This will set the stage for a very cold start to the day on Thursday, with morning lows across the east between 0 and -5, and -5 to -10 across the western portions of the forecast area. Wind chills look to stay just above advisory levels, but will still be very chilly, with readings around -15.

Cold temperatures continue Thursday and Thursday night, with highs on Thursday around 10, and lows Thursday night a few degrees on either side of zero.

Extended guidance continues to point toward a period of active northwest flow Friday into next week, with shortwave passages every day to every other day. Very tough to nail down specific details regarding strength of these shortwaves and resulting precipitation at this distance, but the overall pattern would suggest increased potential for below average temperatures as well as additional chances for light snow.

Boxell

AVIATION

Issued 1027 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low stratus in the 400 to 900 foot AGL range is quite thin across the area, as satellite imagery shows the snow cover beneath it, with the smoke stacks across parts of the area giving brief clearing. There is some uncertainty with if there will be breaks in this shallow low stratus deck this afternoon, before more moves into the area tonight. The better chances may be in eastern parts of the area for any scattering out of this low deck. Winds will shift to the southwest into this afternoon.

Southwest winds will linger tonight into Wednesday morning, before a cold front moves southeast through the area. The front should move southeast of the area by midday, with winds shifting northwest behind it and becoming gusty in the afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night.

The front will bring a period of light snow to the area later tonight into Wednesday morning. There may be around one half inch of snowfall during this period, with rates under one tenth of an inch per hour. This may still bring slippery conditions to runways. Amounts may be a little higher if the front becomes stronger.

Ceilings should be in the 500 to 1000 foot AGL range generally later tonight into Wednesday morning, then 1000 to 1500 feet AGL in the afternoon. Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 4 miles at times with the light snow.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 1027 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

High pressure around 30.1 inches well to the south of the region will bring light west winds today, becoming southwest and increasing by early this evening.

A strong cold front along a low pressure trough around 29.8 inches will then cross Lake Michigan Wednesday. Gusty southwest winds are expected ahead of this front early Wednesday morning, with gusty northwest winds behind it Wednesday afternoon and night. Winds will remain just below gales for most the lake, though a brief period of low end gales is possible Wednesday night over the far northern part of the lake. Very cold air with this system will result in a risk for freezing spray Wednesday night and Thursday.

Light winds are expected Thursday with the influence of high pressure around 30.4 inches over Illinois and Indiana. Another period of elevated southwest winds will occur Thursday night into Friday, as another low pressure trough around 29.8 inches crosses the Upper Great Lakes region.

Boxell/Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...midnight Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.