textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Some chances (around 10-20 percent) for light rain to occur later tonight into Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures and gusty winds are expected Sunday morning.

- There will be a few, intermittent gusts to gale force over the southern half of Lake Michigan this morning into the evening.

- Chances (mainly 20 to 30 percent) for precipitation returns to the area for middle to later portions of next week.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1141 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Today through Monday Night:

A cold front is currently angled across the state from Prairie du Chien to Manitowoc. The front will continue to sag south through tonight, bringing breezy north winds behind it as cold advection brings a more seasonable air mass back to the area. 850-700mb fgen looks to be the main driver of lift with any precip along the front, but RAP and HRRR model soundings show a lot of dry air from the 900 to 600 mb level. As a result, precip should struggle as it moves into our area. Still, a few sprinkles and light showers may saturate the low to mid-levels enough for light precip to make it to the surface over central tonight, and then along the WI/IL border late Sunday morning into the afternoon. With the cold advection, highs will be in the low to upper 40s tomorrow across the area. Overnight lows will dip back down into the 20s amid clearing skies.

High pressure moves in for Monday with daytime cu and similar highs to Sunday across the area.

CMiller

LONG TERM

Issued 1158 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

High pressure lingers on Tuesday as ridging builds aloft over the plains and southwesterly winds return. Highs will begin to rebound into the 50s, though warm advection over the region will kick off more cloud cover.

Precipitation chances are then expected to begin Midweek as temperatures continue to warm and a frontal boundary parks over the Middle Mississippi Valley region on Wednesday, with a wave propagating along the boundary on Thursday. At this time, Wednesday's precipitation chances look to be driven by some nebulous warm advection, with the NBM broadly splashing PoPs of 20% across the state, given disagreement among the global models. Thursday, the wave looks a bit stronger but consistency in location is lacking, so 20 to 30% PoPs have been maintained. The GFS does produce some skinny CAPE profiles on Thursday, so any precip, especially along the WI/IL border may feature thunder.

Following Thursday's wave, cold air pushes back into the area with temperatures moderating back toward normal to slightly below normal Friday and Saturday.

CMiller

AVIATION

Issued 1125 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR through much of tonight. A cold front is expected to move south through the area through 06Z, with winds easing in speed for a time, and then becoming northerly and breezy behind the front for much of Sunday. MVFR cigs are expected around dawn Sunday as colder air advects into the region behind the front. Precipitation chances will be low along the front owing to dry air in the low to mid levels, but a few sprinkles can't be ruled out especially from KFLD to KSBM tonight and then along the WI/IL border during the early afternoon.

CMiller

MARINE

Issued 1126 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Low pressure will push east across the lake tonight. As this low passes southeast of the lake, winds will shift to the north and northeast and become gusty into Sunday morning. A few, sporadic northerly gales are possible Sunday, mainly over southern portions of the lake. High pressure should then bring decreasing winds for Monday through Monday night. Into Tuesday winds may pick up a bit from the south as the high exits and weak front passes over the region. Winds over the lake will remain largely from the south through Wednesday as broad low pressure approaches from the west. Chances for precipitation on Tuesday and again on Wednesday though primarily for northern parts of the lake.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday.