textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely today, mainly this afternoon and evening, though showers may linger into tonight. A couple storms may become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds the main concern.

- Below normal temperatures for early next week.

- Next chances for thunderstorms develop Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Too early to tell intensity, but monitoring for potential stronger storms, especially on Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued 625 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mid-level clouds and isolated showers associated with an area of warm advection will depart this morning, with a brief period of clearing possible. Clouds will likely increase by late morning due to high clouds from upstream storms as well a chance for late morning and afternoon cumulus.

Showers and storms are still expected this afternoon into the evening as a trough approaches. The expectations haven't changed for these storms, with a chance a couple storms could become strong to severe from mid/late afternoon into early evening. Large hail and strong winds are the main concerns if any stronger storms do develop. Showers may then linger into the overnight hours as the trough swings through.

DDV

SHORT TERM

Issued 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

A wswly low level jet of 30-40 kt will extend ewd across nrn IA, far srn MN, and into central WI tnt. Warm, moist advection and frontogenesis will continue to support showers and sct storms over the srn half of MN moving into central WI later this evening. A few of these showers may eventually clip MQT, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan Counties during the overnight.

An additional area of showers and storms may then develop early Sat AM over ern NE as deeper moisture returns on the low level jet. The low level jet will weaken through the morning but scattered showers and storms may continue within the 850 mb frontogenetic zone that extends into central WI. The sfc-850 mb frontal zone will then slowly shift sewd across srn WI through the afternoon and evening, with its slow motion due to the late arrival of the upstream shortwave trough for Sun AM. MLCAPEs may rise to 1000 J/KG by mid to late afternoon while deep layer shear of 50 kt will be in place. This CAPE and shear combination could certainly support severe storms, but overall weak low level convergence and lack of dynamics aloft should limit the severe storm threat to the Marginal Risk that is outlooked. Rain chances of 20-40 percent are forecast for the early afternoon then transitioning to 60-70 percent along and south of a line from Cedarburg to just south of Madison to sw WI for late afternoon and early evening.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

A shortwave trough will pass Sun AM with cold advection continuing much of the day along with broken cloud cover. Thus high temps are only forecast to rise into the upper 60s.

Additional shortwave troughs will continue to arrive next week on nwly flow aloft due to the large upper low over Ontario. The first well organized upper trough will bring rain chances of 60-80 percent Tue afternoon, but the second upper trough may result in cyclogenesis from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley for Wed-Wed nt. There is much uncertainty with the strength, placement, an overall evolution of the cyclogenesis, but rain chances will still remain high (60-80 percent). Temps will remain slightly below normal then rebounding late in the week.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 625 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mid-level clouds and isolated showers associated with an area of warm advection will depart this morning, with a brief period of clearing possible. Clouds will likely increase by late morning due to high clouds from upstream storms as well a chance for late morning and afternoon cumulus.

Showers and storms are still expected this afternoon into the evening as a trough approaches. A couple of the storms could be strong to severe, with large hail and strong winds the main concerns. Showers may then linger into the overnight hours as the trough swings through.

Breezy southwest winds are likely today, with gusts to 25 knots expected during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will then become lighter from the northwest this evening into tonight behind the trough and cold front.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Low pressure around 29.2 inches in the Hudson Bay will continue to bring modest to breezy southwest winds to Lake Michigan through Saturday. A cold front will then move north to south across the lake Saturday night, with winds become northwesterly and a bit gusty. Northwesterly winds will then gradually diminish on Sunday. Light southwest winds will then return on Monday before low pressure develops in the northern Great Plains and brings gusty south winds to the lake for Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds may become very gusty going into Wednesday evening as low pressure crosses the northern half of the Lake. A few gales are possible. Winds then shift to westerly as low pressure exits on Thursday.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Saturday to 5 PM Saturday.