textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills below zero degrees will continue through Friday, with overnight minimum wind chills in the negative teens each night.

- Chances (30 to 60 percent) for lake effect snow showers develop across Lake Michigan counties early Friday morning and may continue into late Saturday morning. There is potential for a couple inches of snow if snow bands persist onshore, but confidence in exact timing and placement is low.

SHORT TERM

Issued 404 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Today through Thursday:

Overall today through Thursday will be largely dry across southern Wisconsin. There is shortwave trough in northeastern MN that will track southeast through the rest of this morning and reach southern Wisconsin around day break. As this trough moves through there will be a potential for a scattered cloud deck to develop across the state. The uncertainty in its development relies more in how expansive it will become as there are already wisps of the scattered deck upstream. Currently from the day cloud phase satellite this area of clouds is very narrow. Dry air in place over southern Wisconsin between the sfc and 850 mb will work against this cloud development, but similar to yesterday with the snow, there could be enough forcing to cause clouds to develop. If clouds do develop they will likely stick around through the afternoon hours then dissipate once the sun begins to set again (late afternoon/early evening).

High pressure will be building into the northern plains and clip the western Great Lakes Region this afternoon into this evening. Another push of arctic air will come with it which will keep highs around 10 to 14 degrees today. Thankfully with the high pressure in place winds should be weak/mild and keep wind chills in check through tonight. This high will strengthen across the northern plains Thursday morning as a low pressure system in the southern plains begins to track northeast into the Ozarks. Overall the high will win out in regards to precipitation (or the lack of it), but winds will become northerly as these two system interact.

Patterson

LONG TERM

Issued 404 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Thursday night through Tuesday:

With the push of some more arctic air and northerly winds, there will be another potential for some lake effect snow for the end of the work week. With predominately north to northwest winds expected for much of the Thursday night, lake effect snow should stay off shore. As we head into early Friday morning, there looks to be a greater push for north to northeast winds. Now before we get into the nitty gritty of wind direction and whether or not Lake Effect Snow (LES) moves inland and how powerful it is, lets quickly highlight the basics that are not in question. We have a good cold layer at 850 mb and a warmer lake so we will have the good upward momentum and the lake is always there to provide moisture. We will have some decent fetch on the range of at least 50 miles if not slightly higher (it wont be as impressive as portions of Chicago and Gary can get with the entire north to south expanse of LM). There will be a 500 mb trough swinging through Friday which will provide synoptic lift and provide more organized snow. So the basics are all here.

The few questions that remain will be how strong our 850 mb winds are to drive LES inland and how stable those winds will be. LES normally thrives the most in scenarios where wind direction doesnt change by more than 30 degrees at a time. With the upper level low progged to move south down LM, there will inevitably be a changing direction, but how quickly does this occur and is it enough at 850 mb. Looking at the big picture its a chance for either minor to moderate accumulations (1 inch or less to a couple of inches - similar to our last LES event earlier in the week). Snowfall amounts will trend lower and weaker the more the winds shift overtime. The GFS is a good example of stronger 850 mb winds and quick turning. It advects weaker showers inland clipping multiple counties with some quick hitting, but overall weak snow showers. By contrast, the NAM and the CAN have more of a single banded approach that could lead to higher totals for a specific location. The take away here is that there is a lot of uncertainty still yet to figure out, which may not come into clear focus until the band has developed (something that happens often on the western side of the Lake). POPs were increased along the lake shore counties to roughly 30 to 60% as guidance across the board has the ingredients necessary and shows some snow moving inland, but stay up to date on the forecast for more specifics as we get closer to early Friday morning through mid to late Saturday. Areas well inland can enjoy the quiet weather.

While all this LES mess plays out the high pressure in the northern plains will continue to descend southward and reach the central plains by Saturday before shifting southeast toward the gulf coast. As this high moves southeast toward FL, another clipper system looks descend down from Alberta/Saskatchewan toward the Great Lakes Region for Sunday into Monday. This would be the system to keep an eye on for those that want more widespread snow. There is some discrepancies in exact track, but looking increasingly likely that we get another round of snow for all of southern Wisconsin. Temperatures will be slightly warmer during this time as we hit highs in the 20s, but this is still well below freezing so confidence in this being all snow is high. Heading into mid week there looks to potentially be another low pressure system that could follow right on the heals of the first if your hoping for snow the GFS will bring you joy. Still lots of uncertainty here so proceed with caution when looking at the extended models more to come as we get closer.

Patterson

AVIATION

Issued 404 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period. The only chance for MVFR ceilings will be if a stratocumulus deck develops around day break this morning. If this scattered to broken deck develops then ceilings would be around 2-3 kft and will persist until late this afternoon.

Light west winds this morning will become more northwesterly by late this morning into this afternoon. Northwest winds could be a bit breezy by this afternoon with gust around 20 kts (~23 MPH). Northwest winds weaken and become light by tonight and remain through Thursday afternoon.

Patterson

MARINE

Issued 404 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Modest to brisk west northwest winds will prevail over Lake Michigan at least into Thursday as weak low pressure remains over the northern and lower Great Lakes with high pressure extending from the northern Great Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley. High pressure will strengthen into Friday as weak low pressure progresses through the middle Mississippi Valley, turning winds briefly northerly to even northeasterly. Winds shift back to north-northwesterly and increase Friday night. Moderate to heavy freezing spray will likely develop once again as northwesterly winds continue through Saturday.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.