textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Pockets of elevated fire weather conditions possible again today

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms expected Monday night into Tuesday. A few severe storms are possible.

- Active weather continues into the second half of next week, with multiple chances for rain/snow then rain Thursday into Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued 605 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Periods of mid and high level clouds will continue through much of the day. Enough filtered sunshine is expected at times for highs into at least the low 60s. The forecast generally looks on track for the upcoming day, with no significant updates anticipated.

DDV

SHORT TERM

Issued 1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

High pressure to the southeast gradually pushing out tonight with lower pressure from the west nudging in. The warm front associated with the low will sit across northern WI. The upper levels likely inactive with weak ridging overhead. Some mild fire weather concerns given RH near 30% with potential for as low as 20% and some breezy southwest winds and highs in the low to mid 60s. Some moisture aloft may bring some high clouds into the day Sunday. Into Sunday night a piece of the surface low will push east over the northern Great Lakes and drag what was the warm front south as a pseudo cold front.

Into Monday there is uncertainty on exactly where the warm front will end up but where it ends up will greatly impact how warm it can get Monday, especially if the lake breeze comes into play, and more importantly exactly where potential storms set up Monday night. Monday night strong WAA is expected south of the warm front with moisture at 700mb and above with increasing instability aloft. Midlevel WAA is very likely to cause any convection to be elevated. There may be some mild flooding concerns with this given skinny CAPE, very moist column, deep cloud layer, along with upwards of 1.5 inch PWATs and a propagation that would favor some training convection potential. There is also a risk for hail as well given the instability (1000-1500J/kg) and 0-6km shear of 45-60kts. The key with any of this potential is exactly where the warm front ends up as this will greatly impact exact where storms fire and how impactful they will be.

Uncertainty increases into Tuesday as the timing of the cold frontal passage as the low pressure system pushes through will significantly impact storm potential and how strong storms could be. Currently most models have the front coming through during the mid morning to mid afternoon. The later the timing the better chance for storms as surface heating and instability can build into the region. This will also be the best chance for any surface based convection/storms. It remains just as likely that the front pushes out more quickly and leave only some post frontal precip. The post frontal precip may persist into the evening with fairly strong forcing through the column with right entrance region of the jet, shortwave energy at 500mb, and even some WAA. We will see models dial in a bit more over the next 24 hours giving us a better idea of how things play out. Cooler conditions push in behind the front Tuesday night as higher pressure nudges in from the northwest.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Wednesday through Sunday:

There is a fair amount of uncertainty in this period with the timing and placement of features, which will influence temperatures and chances for precipitation.

There should be an initial low pressure system that shifts northeast through the Middle Mississippi River Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes region either Wednesday night into Thursday or Thursday night into Friday. Ensembles are mixed with the timing of this low pressure system through the region, so will keep 30 to 50 percent chances for precipitation in the forecast for now.

If the timing is more Wednesday night into Thursday, there may be a period of light snow or mix of light rain and light snow that occurs on the front end of this system, changing to rain as warm air advection brings milder temperatures into the region. The later timing may bring more rain and less light snow/mix potential, if temperatures warm up enough. Temperature spreads are fairly large in ensembles, so will leave ensemble mean values for now.

Ensembles then suggest a second low shifting northeast through a similar track to the first low, with the timing generally Friday night into Saturday night. There remains differences in the placement of the low track and cold frontal passages, so will continue to leave 40 to 60 percent chances for precipitation going in the forecast. Temperatures will once again be dependent on the low track and timing, with ensemble spreads still fairly large this far out.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 605 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Periods of mid and high level clouds will persist today, with clearing skies late afternoon into the evening. Mostly clear skies will likely then continue into Monday morning, with increasing clouds by afternoon. Could see some lower ceilings develop later tomorrow as a warm front slides into the area.

Breezy south to southwest winds are expected today, with light southerly winds likely tonight. Could see another round of low level wind shear tonight, as winds aloft remain elevated.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Currently centered over Virginia, 30.6 inch high pressure will advance into Atlantic into Sunday morning as 29.7 inch low pressure builds into the Great Plains. Widespread 20-25 knot south gusts are expected tonight over the northern half of the waters, with a few gusts to 30 knots possible over the far northern lake. Breezy southwest winds will continue through Sunday as a front begins to approach the waters from the north. The front will gradually advance south across Lake Michigan Sunday night through Tuesday. This will result in generally east- northeast winds across the northern half of the lake with southerly winds further south. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the slow- moving front, with a few stronger storms possible Monday night and once again on Tuesday. Large hail would be the primary threat in any stronger storms.

Winds will trend northerly behind the departing cold front Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Will be monitoring trends for a few gusts approaching gale force Tuesday evening/night, with the current expectation being for any such gusts to be isolated. 30.7 inch high pressure will shift from Ontario to Quebec through the late week time period as 29.8 inch low pressure builds into the Ohio River Valley, allowing winds to trend east-northeasterly. Additional rain and snow will accompany the approaching/passing area of low pressure Thursday into next weekend.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.