textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Special Weather Statement is in effect today for elevated fire weather concerns.

- High temperatures remaining 10 to 20-plus degrees above normal through Thursday, then trending back toward normal by the weekend.

- Gusty winds from 35 to 45 mph are expected late this morning and through the afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 9AM to 6PM for Lafayette, Iowa, and Green Counties.

- More precipitation expected Thursday afternoon into Friday, with rain gradually mixing with and switching over to light snow by Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1230 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

This afternoon through Friday:

Sunshine and dry air will continue to allow for deep mixing this afternoon and also strong westerly winds. Gusts between 40 and 45 mph are expected this afternoon, with a few gusts over 45 mph possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for southwest Wisconsin until 7 PM. Dewpoints will mix down to the teens in southwest WI this afternoon, allowing for minimum RH values in the teens as well. There are elevated fire weather concerns for today, but fuels remain at thresholds below criteria for a Red Flag Warning.

Winds will diminish this evening as a strong inversion sets in as weak high pressure briefly moves in. Winds just above the surface will remain strong out of the southwest into the evening hours, but then drop off overnight. Low temperatures will range from below freezing toward central WI to the mid 30s in southeast WI. Pocket with lows in the 20s are likely in the favorable low spots due to strong radiational cooling.

This high pressure over WI will be nestled between a weakening low over northern WI and a developing low over the Plains. A strong baroclinic zone/frontal boundary will set up over the center of WI and become well-defined by Thursday morning. The new surface low will track from northeast KS to west central IL during the day Thursday, and into southern WI after midnight. The low will take on a negative tilt over srn WI Fri morning and occlude as it drifts northward into northern Lower Michigan through the day.

Rain will spread into southern WI Thursday afternoon and evening as the low approaches from IL. Strong low level warm air advection, mid level vorticiy advection, and deep moisture support a brief period of moderate rain with a few embedded, elevated thunderstorms. Instability is weak, but overall dynamics are strong enough for a few rumbles of thunder. As the low gets into southern WI during the overnight hours, this will cut off the WAA and deeper moisture. The colder air behind the low will slide into southern WI from the west late Thu nt into Fri morning on gusty west to northwest winds.

Accumulating snow is expected over south central WI but is much less likely over southeast WI due to the later onset, lighter precip amounts, and milder temperatures. While there is still spread between models and ensemble members, there is general agreement on an inch or two accum west of Madison. This will be a wet snow, so blowing/drifting snow is not a large concern.

Cronce

LONG TERM

Issued 1230 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Friday night through Wednesday:

The extended models agree fairly well for much of the extended forecast. An occluded low will continue to fill in the vicinity of Lake Huron for Fri nt-Sat. Nwly winds and cold advection will prevail over srn WI during this time along with some lingering stratus clouds.

An upper trough will then slowly track from the ern Dakotas and MN across WI, IA, and IL for Sat nt-Sun. This will enhance the nly winds and cold advection, but also bring 20-40 percent chances for lgt snow.

A north to south ridge of polar high pressure will then follow for late Mon. The high will move east for Tue-Wed, as a shortwave trough and cyclogenesis to some degree, will evolve from the nrn Great Plains to the nrn Great Lakes. There are differences among the models with the strength, timing, and location, but confidence in the low tracking north with sly winds for Tue is looking fairly good. This would boost temps above normal and possibly back into the 40s after having near normal temps from Sat-Mon. 40s could also occur on Wed if the cold frontal passage is slower. There will be 20-30 percent chances for rain and snow with this system with much better chances well to the north.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 1230 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR will prevail through Thursday afternoon. Look for rain to spread into southern WI from the south late Thu afternoon and especially Thursday evening. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible with the moderate rain. After a lull in the precip, colder air will spread into southern WI from the west early Fri morning and rain will change over to wet snow. Snowfall accumulations of just over an inch are possible west of Madison, with little to no accum near Lake Michigan.

Expect MVFR ceilings to develop in southeast WI by Thu evening and expand across all of southern and central WI by Midnight. IFR ceilings are expected overnight.

Cronce

MARINE

Issued 1230 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

High-end, easterly gales are expected through this afternoon over the north half of the lake as low pressure of 29.1 inches approaches Duluth today. A Gale Warning remains in effect until 3PM, but a few gales will be possible through sunset.

For the nearshore of southeast WI (and also northeast IL), gusty westerly winds coming from the land will likely have gale force gusts this afternoon. Thus, upgraded the Small Craft Advisory to a Gale Warning for areas south of Milwaukee.

Winds will ease this evening into Thursday and become southerly as that low occludes and weakens to 29.5 inches over northern Wisconsin. Winds will increase Thursday night into Friday night as another strong low pressure system around 29.2 inches tracks from northeast Kansas into southern Wisconsin. That low will cross northern Lake Michigan Friday morning and gradually weaken through Saturday. Gusty northerly winds are expected Sunday into Monday.

Cronce

FIRE WEATHER

Issued 604 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Clearing skies today will lead to strong mixing. The combination of mixing and high temperatures will result in relative humidity values between 15-25%. Additionally, robust mixing will enable strong winds to mix down to the surface, with gusts between 35 to 45 mph expected. While FFMC is still below critical (~85 at this time) owing recent snow melt and rain, atmospheric conditions will support elevated fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather SPS has been issued for the entire CWA, except Fond du Lac and Sheboygan Counties where RH values are expected to remain above 30%.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ062-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 6 PM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868 until 4 PM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 6 PM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Wednesday.