textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure moves in on Monday with temperatures around normal.

- Chances (mainly 20 to 30 percent) for precipitation returns to the area for middle to later portions of next week.

UPDATE

Issued 608 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

North-northeast winds are slowly weakening early this morning as high pressure in the Northern Plains slowly moves east toward the state. As winds weaken this afternoon, a lake breeze is expected to develop and move inland. This will drop temperatures in the afternoon and evening. Dry and quiet conditions today with no major changes to the forecast.

Patterson

SHORT TERM

Issued 1148 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Today through Tuesday Night:

Lingering stratus tonight may moderate low temperatures depending upon how long the clouds manage to hang on. Given model guidance doesn't have the cloud cover moving east over Lake Michigan until shortly before daybreak, low temperatures have been adjusted upwards a degree or two. Expected lows in the mid to upper 20s.

High pressure is expected to move in today, leading to calmer winds and clear skies to start the day. daytime cu is expected to form over the eastern half of the area during the late morning and persist into the afternoon, generally clumping close to a lake breeze boundary thats expected to take shape during the mid afternoon. Highs will range from the low 40s along the lakeshore to the upper 40s over southwest WI.

High pressure then exits east tonight with winds coming around to south-southwesterly. Some warm advection aloft may cause saturation at the 700mb level early Tuesday morning, but models show lingering dry air at the sfc from the retreating high pressure. PoPs were left out and we should avoid flurries or light snow.

Warm advection continues on Tuesday with dry and cloudier conditions. Expect highs in the low to mid 50s.

CMiller

LONG TERM

Issued 1148 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Wednesday through Saturday:

Models look a bit drier for Wednesday as more pronounced warm advection leans into the area. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low 60s across the area as a warm frontal boundary sharpens across the Upper Midwest. Our next best precipitation chance for the week moves in on Thursday as a low pressure system propagates east along the baroclinic zone during the afternoon and into the evening. Right now the NBM paints 25 to 35% PoPs Thursday afternoon over the area, given some lingering disagreement between the global models on the positioning of the baroclinic zone and position of the low. If a GFS solution were to verify we'd be exposed to more of the warm sector and have better chances for thunder during the afternoon. We'll continue to monitor those chances as the week unfolds.

Temperatures dip into the 40s amid cold advection Friday, with high pressure expected to move through on Saturday. Ridging then builds again Sunday into Monday, with hints that temperatures will again push back toward the 60s by the end of the extended period.

CMiller

AVIATION

Issued 608 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. The lingering breezy north-northwest winds early this morning will slowly subside as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains. Light and variable winds are expected this afternoon with mostly clear skies. A lake breeze is expected to move inland this afternoon as winds weaken. Scattered cumulus clouds may develop along the lake breeze with ceilings around 4-6 kft. Winds will remain light and become southerly tonight. Clouds will also return late this evening into tonight ahead of a weak frontal boundary. The front will be slow moving and will likely stall across northern Wisconsin. Conditions should remain dry across southern Wisconsin with south to southwest winds through Tuesday.

Patterson

MARINE

Issued 1101 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Gales continue over the southern third of Lake Michigan this evening as sharp pressure gradient remains over the lake. This pressure gradient will linger into early Monday, as low pressure retreats east toward the Delmarva Peninsula and high pressure moves in from the northern Great Plains. A Gale Warning remains in effect until 1AM CDT Monday for the southern 3rd of the open waters for gusts from 35 to 40 kts, with a few isolated gusts to 45 kts possible.

The previously mentioned high pressure will build into the Great Lakes Region the first half of Monday, bringing decreasing winds and then briefly light and variable winds Monday evening as the center of the high pressure passes over the lake. As this high exits Tuesday and a weak front passes, winds may pick up a bit from the south. Winds over the lake will remain largely from the south through Wednesday as broad low pressure approaches from the west. Chances for precipitation on Tuesday and again on Wednesday though primarily for northern parts of the lake.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 7 AM Monday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Monday.