textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A lake effect snow band is likely (60 percent chance) over far southeast WI today with around an inch forecast.

- Very light snow accumulations are likely later Sunday into Sunday night.

- Milder this upcoming week with highs in the 20s, and potential for temperatures near freezing Thursday and Friday.

UPDATE

Issued 940 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

The majority of the lake effect band continues to remain offshore this morning. Racine and Kenosha Counties may see a glancing blow of flurries from the band, but appreciable snow accumulation beyond a dusting is not expected. Otherwise areas of flurries continue inland primarily over Dodge, Jefferson, Rock and Green County owing to low stratus overlapping with the dendritic growth zone. These flurries may continue until skies begin to clear this afternoon.

CMiller

SHORT TERM

Issued 345 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Today through Monday:

The area of light snow that brought a dusting to ern WI has shifted into IL. The next round will be a north to south lake effect snow band already over the wrn half of the lake. It appears it will affect far ern MKE, Racine and Kenosha Counties then shift slowly south and east. Overall the snowfall rates should be light as the lake to 850 mb temp differences decrease through the morning, but brief moderate rates possible. Around an inch of snow accumulation.

For later today and tnt, a sfc ridge extending from the arctic high over the srn Great Plains will shift across srn WI. High temps will warm into the lower 20s today, but good radiational cooling conditions will drop temps back down into the single digits for tnt.

A shortwave trough within nwly flow aloft will slowly move across srn WI late Sun afternoon and night, while its sfc trough and cold front weakens with time. Enough PVA, weak warm advection, and saturation will support light snow with snow accums under an inch. The weak cold front will pass early Mon AM, but temps will remains similar to Sun with highs in the middle 20s both days.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 345 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Tuesday through Friday:

Nwly flow aloft with embedded shortwave troughs will prevail for this period. The ECMWF Ens mean and GEFS MSLP differ some for the remainder of the week but overall a weak trough of low pressure will track from the central USA to the east coast, followed by low pressure of some degree approaching from Canada and moving through the Great Lakes. There are 30-50% chances for light snow for Thu-Fri. Temps will continue to warm to near normal values.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 959 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A MVFR clouds from 1500 to 2500 ft exist from KMSN eastward, while clear skies have worked southeast into KDLL and KLNR. Some light flurries are also occuring with the MVFR cloud cover and along the lakeshore from the edge of a lake effect snow band. Expect these clouds to clear from west to east through the rest of the morning and flurries to end.

Winds will remain north to north-northwesterly and ease in speed heading into the afternoon as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region.

CMiller

MARINE

Issued 345 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Lake effect snow showers, brisk north winds, and moderate freezing spray will prevail today, mainly across the southern half of the lake. Strong high pressure of 30.8 inches will settle over the southern Great Plains today. A ridge extending north from the high will then shift across the lake tonight, with light and variable winds expected. Modest southwest winds will develop for Sunday into Sunday night as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The trough will then pass and shift the winds to northwesterly for Monday.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 3 PM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM Saturday.