textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild temps in the 60s for Sunday and Monday. Cannot rule out locally higher temps approaching 70F Monday. - Increased precip chances (50-90%) Tuesday into Wednesday with rain and a potential for a few rumbles of thunder initially then wintry mix into Wednesday.

- Active pattern for the later half of the week with increased precip chances and potential for a few thunderstorms

SHORT TERM

Issued 1100 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Today (Sunday) through Monday night:

Stratus continues to linger, but gradually see it push west to east overnight with influence from the surface high's subsidence. Additionally accompanying clearer conditions will be the the low- level WAA and southwesterly winds spreading in through this morning. Meanwhile the first in a series of upper- level clippers and surface lows is expected to trek across Ontario this morning placing southern WI firmly within its warm sector before a dry cold front swings through. Mainly will just be a wind shift as we continue to see trends of high temps in the lower 60s today under mostly clear skies. Would not be surprised for a few locations to creep into the mid 60s this afternoon, especially for western and southwestern portions of the CWA. Milder temps continue tonight with lows in the 40s.

Monday is not looking too dissimilar to today with another clipper tracking across Ontario advect even warmer temps into southern WI. Continue to see models ping mid to upper 60s for high Monday. Also cannot rule out seeing a location or two even approach 70F. However, this taste of warmer days to come will be brief as a stronger cold front is progged to push southward through WI later Monday. This will bring a push of the colder Canadian airmass into our neck of the woods Monday night. However this cold front is looking to stall somewhere across the region and will ultimately determine the temps as there could be a fairly strong gradient set up across the area. The latest trends (00z NAM and NAMnest) continue to favor the cold front stalling south of the WI/IL border more into IL alter overnight, which will keep southern WI on the cooler side with temps falling back into the lower 40s to mid to upper 30s Monday night into Tuesday morning. Wagner

LONG TERM

Issued 1100 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

As the cold front is progged to stall across IL for Tuesday, the upper-level trough develops across the central CONUS. This will be the focus for our increased PoP chances Tuesday into Wednesday as a surface low develops along the front range of the Rockies tracks across the Central Plains through the day Tuesday. WAA and moisture ahead of this system interacting with this stalled front will bring increased precip chances to northern IL and southern WI through the day Tuesday. As the surface low lift northeastward, it looks to latch to this stall boundary and follow it through the region later Tuesday into Wednesday. Thus continuing to see PoP chances across the CWA during the same time frame. Latest trends continue to favor milder/above freezing conditions through the day Tuesday and supportive of mostly rain, but as CAA on the northside of the low take firmer hold as the low passes south of WI, could see rain turn more wintry mix (rain/snow/freezing rain) through Wednesday morning. So will continue to monitor this system as it will be our next chance for precip.

However, model runs on Friday favored this trough remaining separate from an upper-level cutoff low over the southern Plains, but subsequent runs have been trending toward the two systems phasing over the central CONUS as it lifts into the Midwest region. Given this phasing trend, it does lend some way to a bit more uncertatiny as phasing systems this far out are known to trend toward a weaker system as well as shift it more southward with later runs. So while the vast majority of models and ensembles still favor the increased PoPs chances and low tracking just south of the WI/IL border, I would not be surprised to see a bit more of a southern shift in surface low in the coming days, which may ultimately impact our PoP chances as well as precip type.

Regardless this system will lift northeastward Wednesday and Thursday allowing for high pressure to build across the area Thursday. Expect closer to normal temps and potentially even slightly cooler for the end of the week. Then models and ensembles continue to hint at another system traversing the Upper Midwest toward the end of the week. While the latest trends keep this system to the north of our CWA, still could be the next opportunity for additional precip chances.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 1100 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MVFR stratus deck continues to linger tonight, but the edge is slowly progressing eastward into WI. So still expecting 1-2kft ceilings clearing out for our western terminals between 07-09z and 08-10z further east toward Lake Michigan. Otherwise, lighter westerly winds still expected overnight. Additionally still looking like we could see some LLWS overnight into early Sunday morning as a 40-50 kt low-level jet swings through the area between 09-15z Sunday. However, will begin to see the stronger southwesterly winds and gusts mix down after daybreak. Thus looking at 20-30kt gust possible for southern WI terminals Sunday morning into the afternoon. Clearer skies will allow for VFR conditions to prevail for much of Sunday with some lingering breezy winds into Sunday evening along with another round of LLWS possible.

Wagner

MARINE

Issued 1100 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A series of low pressures will trek across Ontario this morning and again Monday morning. With each passing low expect periods of stronger southwesterly winds. Small craft conditions for southern WI nearshores are expected early this morning into early this afternoon. Also will see gales across the northern half of Lake Michigan open waters this morning and into the afternoon as well. Will be another potential for gales with the passing of the second low pressure system on Monday. Then will see the cold front from this low sag southward across the lake into Monday evening turning winds more northerly into Tuesday, but still breezy. Additional small craft conditions will be possible for later Tuesday as a low lifts up from the Plains and skirts just south of Lake Michigan.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...4 AM Sunday to 1 PM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...4 AM Sunday to 1 PM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Sunday to 6 PM Sunday.