textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A few hours of light rain over se WI this morning then becoming mostly sunny and warm.

- Warm temperatures in the 80s for Mon-Wed.

UPDATE

Issued 556 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

An area of light rain will shift across far se WI through 14-15Z as a shortwave trough and sfc trough move across the region. The heavier rain and most storms will remain over ne IL where deeper low level moisture is present. Subsidence and drying behind the upper wave will then bring clearing skies to srn WI later this morning with a nice and warm day expected.

Gehring

SHORT TERM

Issued 1259 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Overnight through Monday:

A weak cold front/convergence boundary should continue to shift east through the area overnight into this morning. There is some weak differential CVA aloft pushing into the area as well, with some low level moisture and very weak instability. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers (20 to 40 percent) should shift east across the eastern half of the area with the boundary into this morning before exiting. An isolated thunderstorm may occur as well, with the very weak instability.

Light onshore winds overnight should allow for low status clouds and fog to push onshore in the areas near Lake Michigan, lingering into this morning before pushing back offshore. Patchy dense fog may occur. There may be patchy fog further inland as well.

Clouds should gradually push east of the area by midday today, with a dry and pleasant day expected in the afternoon. Light to modest west winds are expected inland, with a southeast lake breeze developing in the afternoon near the lake. Highs today should warm into the upper 70s over most inland areas, with temperatures turning cooler near the lake in the afternoon.

There may be a few light showers that occur (around 20 percent chances) later tonight into Monday in western portions of the area, with some weak warm air advection and a low level jet that transports in some modest moisture. Not confident in this possibility, so kept chances for showers low at this time.

Otherwise, some middle to high clouds should move through the area Monday. Warm highs into the middle 80s are expected with increasing south to southwest winds. There may be a southeast lake breeze later in the day near the lake.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 1259 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Monday night through Saturday:

There may be a few light showers that occur (around 20 percent chances) Monday night into Tuesday, as some weak warm air advection and a low level jet that transports some moisture into western portions of the area.

High pressure to the east should keep the area in warm air advection on south to southwest winds Tuesday, with warm highs into the middle to upper 80s. There may be a lake breeze in the afternoon near the lake.

The Tuesday night into Saturday period is generally showing a 500 mb ridge axis developing over the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest per 500 mb cluster analysis for the coming week. There are anomalous 500 mb heights expected over most of the northern half of the country and into Canada during this period. Ensemble means generally keep high pressure at the surface over areas to the north of the region for the middle to late portions of the week. This should result in above normal temperatures for most of this period and relatively dry conditions, which is supported by ensemble trends.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 556 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas of low stratus (600-1900 feet) and MVFR Vsbys over east central WI until 15Z today. Light rain with areas of MVFR Vsbys over se WI until 15Z today. Fog of 1/2SM in portions of the Baraboo River and WI River Valleys until 13Z today. VFR conditions then expected for all of srn WI from late this morning into Mon AM.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 556 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A weak and dissipating trough of low pressure will slowly move east across Lake Michigan this morning with weak high pressure quickly following it. Winds will mainly remain light southerly winds, but light and variable winds may occur at times over the far southern basin of the lake. South winds will then continue tonight, becoming a bit stronger for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves to the lower Great Lakes.

Some fog may develop across the lake this morning and could linger into tonight as mild and moist air flows over the cooler waters of the lake.

A cold front may shift southward across the lake toward the middle of the week, as high pressure around 30.3 inches builds into James Bay.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.