textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder late this afternoon into early tonight.

- Rain will transition to snow west to east the second half of tonight into Friday morning, with impactful accumulating snow expected west of a line from Fond du Lac to Janesville. A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect for western portions of the forecast area, with significant impacts to the Friday morning commute expected.

- Occasional chances for flurries / light snow this weekend, especially Saturday night (10-40% chances).

SHORT TERM

Issued 246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

Confidence is increasing in an impactful winter storm across portions of southern Wisconsin tonight into Friday morning. Over the last 24 hours, models have generally trended stronger and farther southeast with the expected low track of the upcoming system. This has brought the higher forecast snow totals into western portions of the forecast area, with the previous Winter Weather Advisory west of Madison now upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for totals of 4 to 8 inches, the higher amounts across west/northwest portions of the warning counties.

Rain showers will move in from south to north late this afternoon into the evening, with widespread showers persisting across southern Wisconsin into early tonight. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible during this period. A break in the precip will be possible in the southeast as low pressure moves overhead later tonight.

Meanwhile, rain will transition to snow west to east later tonight into Friday morning. Areas west of a line from Fond du Lac to Janesville will have the best chance for impactful accumulating snowfall, with the highest totals currently expected west of Madison. The snow will be largely on the wetter side, with snow to liquid ratios starting around 8 to 1 and increasing to around 13 to 1 as the colder air wraps in. Snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour will be possible, particularly between 3 and 9 am. Additionally, west to northwest winds will gust up to 40 mph, with the highest gusts likely during the morning and early afternoon. The timing of the heavier rates and gusty winds will likely significantly impact the morning commute within the warning and advisory areas.

Lesser snowfall amounts are expected farther east given the bulk of the precip will be exiting by the time the colder airmass reaches eastern areas. Little to no snow accumulation is expected for lakeshore areas.

Snow will wind down mid to late morning Friday, with clouds gradually clearing south to north Friday evening into Friday night.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

As low pressure weakens across the eastern Great Lakes region Saturday, an inverted shortwave pushing southwestward through the mean flow will produce the next chances for precipitation across southern Wisconsin. With temperatures in the mid to low 30s falling into the 20s, expect the majority of this precipitation to fall as snow. Some weak instability combined with dry adiabatic lapse rates from 850 mb and below may combine to create brief gusty snow showers Saturday evening. Generally expecting less than a half an inch of snow, but some very localized spots that see multiple snow showers through the course of the day and overnight hours may see up to an inch.

Northwesterly winds will remain steady around 10 to 15 mph throughout the overnight hours, bringing in lows in the upper teens to low 20s. Any lingering snow showers in southeastern Wisconsin will taper off into Sunday afternoon, with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s and gusty northwest winds.

Arctic high pressure builds into Wisconsin on Monday. However, with sun angle reaching higher each day and lower winds, will still see temperatures rise into the mid to upper 20s. Low pressure ejecting through the Canadian Prairies will shift winds to southerly Monday night into Tuesday, bringing highs on Tuesday back into the mid to upper 30s, and perhaps even a few regions reaching the low 40s. The main system looks to remain across northern Wisconsin, but chances (~20 to 40%) of snow may stretch into central Wisconsin as well Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Wednesday morning, a cold front with scattered snow showers will progress northwest to southeast through the region.

Highs in the mid-30s are expected on Wednesday, but temperatures are expected to drop through the afternoon. An additional system propagating through southern Canada on Thursday will bring southerly winds once again, as well as additional chances for precipitation going into the afternoon an evening hours.

MH

AVIATION

Issued 246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Rain showers will move in from south to north late this afternoon into the evening, with widespread showers persisting across southern Wisconsin into early tonight. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible during this period. A break in the precip will be possible in the southeast as low pressure moves overhead later tonight.

Meanwhile, rain will transition to snow west to east later tonight into Friday morning. This system has trended stronger and a bit farther southeast, which is resulting in higher expected snow totals, particularly across the west. Areas west of a line from Fond du Lac to Janesville will have the best chance for impactful accumulating snowfall, with the highest totals currently expected west of Madison. The snow will be largely on the wetter side, with snow to liquid ratios starting around 8 to 1 and increasing to around 13 to 1 as the colder air wraps in. Snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour will be possible, particularly between 09Z and 15Z. Additionally, west to northwest winds will gust up to 35 knots, with the highest gusts likely during the morning and early afternoon. Ceilings down to 300 feet and visibilites as low as 1/2 mile are likely with this system. Wouldn't be surprised by visibilites down to 1/4 SM at times with the heavier snow in the west.

Snow will wind down mid to late morning Friday, with clouds gradually clearing south to north Friday evening into Friday night.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Low pressure of 29.4 inches over northern Missouri this afternoon will head northeast this evening and tonight, reaching central Lake Michigan early Friday morning while deepening to 29.2 inches. West to northwest gales will develop on the back side of this low as it pulls away into Michigan on Friday. Confidence is high in gusts up to 40 knots, so the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a warning. This warning is for roughly the southern half of the lake, including the southern Wisconsin nearshore zones.

Westerly winds will ease to around 10 to 20 knots for Friday night into Saturday as the weakening low pulls away and high pressure approaches. Northwest to north winds will then increase Sunday into Monday between strong high pressure to the northwest and a low pressure system lifting from the Mid- Atlantic States into the Northeast United States. Winds could reach gale force Sunday night into Monday over the open waters, with increasing confidence in the need for a Small Craft Advisory over the nearshore waters.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Storm Warning...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ067...midnight Friday to noon Friday.

Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ057-WIZ063- WIZ068...3 AM Friday to noon Friday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday.

Gale Warning...LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870...11 AM Friday to 9 PM Friday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643...11 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...midnight Friday to 11 AM Friday.

Gale Warning...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...midnight Friday to 8 AM Friday.