textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional chances for flurries/light snow this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning (10-40% chances).

UPDATE

Issued 535 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Previous forecast remains on track as winds ease through the evening and last of the flurries lifts northeast over Lake Michigan.

Wagner

SHORT TERM

Issued 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

This afternoon through Sunday:

Low pressure around 990 mb is currently from north central Lake MI extending to Lake Huron with the upper low over lower MI. Only areas of light snow remain which will continue to diminish through the afternoon as frontogenesis weakens and cold advection increases. The Winter Weather Advisory will expire at noon, while a Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of Srn WI until 3 PM CST. The greatest wind gusts are expected over se WI during this time.

For tnt-Sat, the cloud cover will waver between partly cloudy and mostly cloudy as a couple vorticity maximums traverse the area, but dry conditions are forecast. A series of vorticity maximums will then track from the ern Dakotas and wrn MN to ern IA and across IL for Sat nt-Sun. However, the deeper saturation on fcst soundings is over ern WI but overall lift is weak. Will maintain 20-40% chances for light snow during this time. The upper level pattern will support enhanced nly sfc winds and cold advection for this same time period. High temps Sunday should remain just below freezing.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Sunday night through Friday:

Sunday night into Monday high pressure will be moving east through the Plains reaching the Atlantic by Tuesday night. As this high pressure briefly moves through the Great Lakes Region, northerly winds will return across Lake Michigan. The 850mb temp difference (between that and the water) is around 14 to 16 degrees which is at a good level for lake effect snow. Confidence is low on if there will be enough of an easterly component to bring any lake effect snow on shore at this point. So kept the low chance POPs (10%) for the immediate lakeshore.

Additional chances for precipitation are expected in the extended as a few clipper systems try to move through Tuesday and again on Thursday. Model certainty is still moderate to low with both of these systems which is apparent in the deterministic runs and when looking at the 500mb cluster analysis. Tuesday's upper level support is a shortwave trough, while Thursday looks to be a slightly stronger trough. It is the trough on Thursday that shows up on the cluster analysis with a monopole distribution. This just points to uncertainty in strength/amplitude of the trough. This provides further clarity on the deterministic models as well, specifically why there is a broader area and longer duration chance for precipitation. The timing between the shortwave on Tuesday and Thursday is such that some of the deterministic guidance is running the two together. This has creates long running low chance POPs (10- 30%) in the extended. Hence the uncertainty in the amplitude of the troughing Thursday as there could be a phasing system issue. Its likely that this trend of broad low chance POPS will continue until there is more agreement in the models on whether there is phasing between the two or actually a gap of dry weather on Wednesday. As for precip type, Tuesday looks to be snow with forecast soundings having the entire air column below freezing and much of the precipitation occuring along and behind a cold front. Precipitation type becomes a bit more of a wintry mix heading into Wednesday and Thursday as guidance suggests warm air returning with some southerly winds and pulling temperatures above freezing. There is a lot yet to be ironed out here so this may yet change. As always stay up to date with the forecast.

Patterson

AVIATION

Issued 535 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

MVFR ceilings linger across most of southern WI this evening along with breezy westerly winds. However, winds gradually ease into Saturday morning as high pressure builds to the west while ceilings are looking to lift to around/above 3kft. So may see ceilings bounce between MVFR and VFR after 04z-08z. High pressure continues to spread eastward through the day Saturday, but mainly expecting VFR conditions to prevail with breezy westerly winds. May see ceiling gradually lower into Saturday evening as an upper-level clipper works its way across the area overnight into Sunday.

Wagner

MARINE

Issued 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Low pressure around 29.2 inches over north central Lake Michigan will track to Lake Huron by late this afternoon. West to northwest gales will develop over the southern half of Lake Michigan today as the strong low departs. A Gale Warning remains in effect into this evening.

Northwest winds gradually subside late tonight as low pressure weakens over Lake Huron. Northwest to north winds continue through the weekend and into early next week as polar high pressure builds southward towards the Dakotas and Minnesota. These winds will become gusty Sunday into Monday morning as the polar high draws closer, and could reach gale force Sunday night into Monday morning. The high pressure area then moves across Lake Michigan Monday night with light and variable winds expected.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 10 PM Friday.

Gale Warning...LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870 until 9 PM Friday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Friday.