textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Low temperatures around 10F tonight with wind chills around zero.

- Light accumulating snow Thursday late afternoon and evening and again Friday morning, with patchy freezing drizzle in between. This could impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes.

- Cold temperatures continue this weekend into next week, with several additional chances for light snow showers.

UPDATE

Issued 855 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Forecast remains on track this evening. Have been watching scattered low cloud development across the eastern half of the area, which is likely being driven at least partially by very cold 925-850 mb temperatures moving into the region. Model analysis from the RAP indicates temps near or just below zero in this layer, which would translate to a ~15 degree vertical temp difference in the near-surface layer. Thus likely seeing some overturning develop in the boundary layer this evening, allowing for the aforementioned cloud formation to occur. Also seeing some lake effect clouds near the lakeshore in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties. Will likely see scattered clouds stick around through at least the first half of the overnight hours, which will keep temperatures from bottoming out entirely. Currently to the west, arriving high pressure should flush out clouds closer to daybreak tomorrow morning.

Quigley

SHORT TERM

Issued 313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

Skies (and light snow showers/flurries) are clearing quickly from northwest to southeast this afternoon as drier air works into the area. With the cold air mass in place, lows are expected to get down to around 9F for inland areas and 11 or 12 for the lakeshore counties. With winds diminishing but still steady, the wind chill values will be around zero through the night.

An area of warm advection out ahead of low pressure approaching from the northern Plains will arrive late Thursday afternoon. This will likely bring a round of light snow, up to an inch, to south central and southeast WI during the evening. The arrival time is still uncertain since this is associated with a weak upper level shortwave, but it could arrive as early as 5 PM in Madison and impact the Thursday evening commute.

This snow will be powdery since the growth zone is between -8 and -10C. Once the forcing with this waa passes, then we could have a period of freezing drizzle (no ice crystals) during the Thursday overnight hours.

A robust shortwave will swing across the Upper Midwest and across IA and northern IL/southern WI Friday morning. This will bring just enough forcing for deep enough moisture for ice crystals, although the amount of moisture is limited. So another period of light snow (less than an inch) is expected and will impact the Friday morning commute. Brisk westerly winds up to 30 mph are expected during the day Friday.

Cronce

LONG TERM

Issued 313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Friday afternoon through Wednesday:

As the surface low continues to move into the Upper Great Lakes region through the day Friday, expect its progress to slow and meander around peninsulas of upper and lower MI into Saturday. Mid-range models continue to support a brief lull in the snow activity later Friday morning/afternoon as a brief dry slot works its way in behind the morning round of snow. Then another round more showery snow is expected as the upper-level low and mid- level dCVA swings through the region on the backside of the surface low paired with a reinforcing cold front. This will likely result in a prolonged periods of light showery snow chances across portions of southern WI with scattered accumulations beginning later Friday afternoon/evening and continue into Saturday morning. Unlike the morning round, this round will be accompanied by a strong CAA push of the Arctic air and the arrival of much colder temps ranging from single digits to the teens through Friday night. Thus trends toward developing slick travel conditions and impacts to the Friday evening commute lingering into Saturday with drops in visibility and refreezing of any wet/untreated surfaces. Snow chances briefly diminish later Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds into the region.

However, expecting the active, Arctic pattern to continue through the start of next week. There is a consensus between the long range models based on WPC Cluster Analysis of the 500mb trough settling over the Upper Midwest through the middle of next week. With this established pattern, expect well below normal temps and trend for even colder wind chills across southern WI through the start of next week. With the upper-level northwesterly flow, could see periodic bouts of snow that may accompany any embedded mid- level disturbances paired with a blob of Pacific moisture tracking through the trough. Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 855 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR flight categories continue through the majority of the period. FEW to SCT clouds based between FL030 and FL040 have developed in inland locations, and will likely persist through the first half of the overnight. Have also noted lake-effect clouds based between FL030 and FL040 in the vicinity of MKE and ENW. Have accounted for cloud trends through the overnight period in the 03Z amendment. Currently to the west of the region, high pressure will move into southern Wisconsin later tonight/early Thursday morning, allowing gusty northwest winds to taper. Mid-level clouds will thicken Thursday afternoon as high pressure shifts east and the next disturbance approaches from the west. Expect said disturbance to bring SN and some FZDZ late Thursday afternoon and night. Have accounted for this potential with PROB30 groups near the end of the 24 hour period at MSN and JVL, and with a prevailing group near the end of the 30 hour period at MKE. Additional mentions will become necessary at other terminals in the 06Z forecast.

Quigley

MARINE

Issued 313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Low pressure over western Pennsylvania will slide across New York tonight while deepening. Meanwhile, high pressure will expand across Wisconsin tonight and then cross the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday. Northerly gales to 40 knots will continue into the evening hours and drop below gales around midnight. Moderate freezing spray is expected through tonight. Winds will shift around to the south Thursday afternoon.

Once the gales diminish for the nearshore area of southeast WI around mid evening, a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect until mid Thursday morning. The next round of gusty westerly winds will arrive Friday afternoon and we will likely need another Small Craft Advisory.

Low pressure will cross Lake Superior on Friday, and stall over the lower Great Lakes Saturday while weakening. A weaker low will track across Lake Superior Sunday afternoon. Several waves of colder air on the back side of the lows will overspread Lake Michigan on gusty westerly winds Friday night through Sunday night. Freezing spray will remain a concern given the very cold temperatures. A period of gales is possible Sunday night.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 AM Thursday.

Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until midnight Thursday.