textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Minimum wind chills in the negative teens are expected tonight.

- Lake effect showers develop offshore early Friday morning, and are likely to impact lakeshore counties into Friday afternoon (40 to 60 percent chances). Showers are expected to wobble on and off shore through Saturday afternoon. Totals of 1-4 inches will be possible across southeastern Wisconsin and are dependent on how long the snow stays onshore.

- Next chances for snowfall (30 to 50 percent) Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across all of southern Wisconsin.

UPDATE

Issued 943 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Quiet weather is still expected through the day today under high pressure. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail along with light northwest winds. Forecast highs look on track for the afternoon, with no significant updates to the short term forecast anticipated.

DDV

SHORT TERM

Issued 339 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Today and Tonight:

High pressure in the Northern Plains will encroach on the western Great Lakes Region as the high pressure system strengthens today. This broad area of high pressure will be largely stationary across the Northern Plains for much of the day, but its effects will keep light winds and dry weather through southern Wisconsin.

Small disturbances and areas of convergences in the mid levels will bring a potential for clouds to develop this afternoon into this evening. The best potential for clouds will be across central and eastern Wisconsin as both Lake Michigan and Lake Superior provide mid level moisture with the sustained north to northwest winds. Heading into tonight clouds will grow across the region as a mid and upper level trough approaches from Ontario. A stronger area of convergence will set up across Lake Michigan toinght as winds in Wisconsin stay northwesterly and winds in Michigan turn east to northeasterly. The upper level support and low level convergence will lead to the development of a lake effect snow band and potentially an MCV late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Patterson

LONG TERM

Issued 339 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

The lake effect snow (LES) machine returns Friday for the Lake Michigan lakeshore. Early Friday morning winds turn north to northeast across the lake. There will be good convergence with the changing wind direction across the lake and an upper level trough moving south down the region. Overall the key ingredients will be present for some LES and guidance is increasingly showing support for a MCV to form over the central and southern portions of the lake as winds turn at 850mb. Wind direction will be a key player for snow amounts and duration of snowfall across the Wisconsin lake shore counties early Friday through Saturday afternoon. Friday morning through Friday afternoon looks to be the best potential timing for LES as winds turn east to northeasterly. The abruptness of this winds shift and location of the band during time will play a roll in how strong the snow is by the time in moves inland. Beyond Friday afternoon this lake effect banding and potential MCV will wobble across the lake. This would result in potentially multiple lulls in precipitation through Saturday afternoon. Confidence on getting LES is high while the duration and intensity of the snowfall is still in question. Snowfall rates of 0.5 inch per hours is expected under the weaker conditions. However, we can't rule out pockets of higher rates up to 1 inch per hour for the more organized banding. All lakeshore counties have a potential for at least a dusting of snow with totals closer to 1 inch being more likely. Southeastern Wisconsin will be the area that is most likely to see any higher totals. While confidence is lower for longer duration snowfall, totals across the immediate lakeshore (east of I-94) could see amounts as high as 4 inches. With uncertainty remaining, stay up to date with the forecast and prepare for potential impacts to the Friday morning commute if you find yourself along Lake Michigan. Areas well inland can enjoy the quiet weather.

While all this LES mess plays out the high pressure in the northern plains will continue to descend southward and reach the central plains by Saturday before shifting east southeast toward the Carolinas. As this high moves southeast toward the mid Atlantic States, another clipper system looks descend down from Alberta/Saskatchewan toward the Great Lakes Region for early Sunday into Monday morning. This would be the system to keep an eye on for those that want more widespread snow. Uncertainty on the exact track of the low and how much snow develops along WAA remains. Temperatures will be slightly warmer during this time as we hit highs in the 20s, but this is still well below freezing so confidence in this being all snow is high. High pressure will follow behind this system keeping conditions dry until mid week. Guidance suggests another clipper will move through mid week and could bring another potential chance for snow. Looking beyond this temperatures in the upper 20s to even low 30s could make a return.

Patterson

AVIATION

Issued 943 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Quiet weather will continue through the day today under high pressure, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected along with light northwest winds. A shortwave will then drop through southern Wisconsin tonight through Friday, with northerly winds picking up a bit behind the trough tomorrow. Additionally, a round of lower clouds may move in from the north with the trough passage, though there are mixed signals among models with the ceilings heights during this time.

The other concern tomorrow will be the potential for lake effect snow showers moving in early tomorrow morning and persisting into the afternoon. All lakeshore areas from Sheboygan south through Kenosha will have the potential for light accumulations of around an inch. Locally higher amounts of to 2-4 inches are possible if the lake effect bands park for a few hours in a particular location. Given the cold temps, the snow is expected to be of the drier variety. Rates up to an inch an hour will be possible under the heavier bands. There is a chance for a brief period of lighter snowfall farther inland as the trough axis moves through, with any accumulations under 0.5".

DDV

MARINE

Issued 339 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Light to moderate west northwest winds prevail over Lake Michigan through this evening as a weak low pressure around 30.0 inches in the eastern Great Lakes Region moves into the northern New England states. Meanwhile a broad high pressure around 30.5 inches stretches from the Northern Plains into the Lower Missouri River Valley. This high pressure will strengthen Friday to around 30.6 inches as a low pressure system around 30.0 inches in the mid Mississippi River Valley moves east into to the mid Atlantic coast. These two systems will briefly turn winds to the north to northeast across Lake Michigan. During this time Lake Effect Snow will develop and wobble across the Lake.

Winds shift back to north- northwesterly and increase Friday night as low pressure deepens to 29.8 inches off the coast of the mid Atlantic states. Moderate to heavy freezing spray will likely develop during this time. A second brief period of northeast winds is possible Saturday morning as the high pressure around 30.6 inches in the Great Plains slides southward into the U.S. Southeast and low pressure in the Atlantic further deepens. Winds become light and variable Saturday night into Sunday as the high pressure finally dominates the pattern.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.