textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- West to east band of 1-3 inches of snow with narrow swath exceeding 3 inches setting up from Iowa/Sauk counties east through Ozaukee/northern Milwaukee counties. Lighter snow expect outside of the band.

- Gradually warming trend through next week with periodic precipitation chances through the end of next week.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight:

After models bouncing around, finally seeing the band of snow showing its cards. Seeing the band develop from Sauk County down through Kenosha early this afternoon. Expect this band to set more west the east through the afternoon from Sauk/Iowa Counties through northern Milwaukee/Ozaukee counties. Generally expect the 1-3 inch accumulations to fall within this corridor. Given the forcing being 850-700mb frontogenesis banding along with reports upstream, could not rule out seeing totals exceed 3 inches. Main concern with this band will be the drops in visibility of less than 1 mile along with quick accumulations of packable snow leaning toward the drier side. Thus resulting in slick travel conditions, especially for elevated and untreated surfaces. Given the band fairly progressive movement along with trends of lower QPF as drier Arctic air pushes in from the north, think that is enough to keep totals in the 1-3 inch range and below winter weather advisory level for our neck of the woods. However, still cannot rule out a short-fused issuance, especially if the band sits over an area longer than expected with totals nearing 4 inches.

Otherwise areas across our east central counties from Marquette through Sheboygan may still see some light snow, but drier air for the strong Arctic high to the north will limit accumulating snow too far north. But still could see accumulations generally around an inch for southern portions of the counties with less than an inch the further north you go.

Areas south of the band (south of I-94) are bit more saturated and will also see some snow accumulations, but generally around an inch or so as the forcing remains to the north.

Expect the band of frontogenesis to wobble through southern WI through the afternoon before departing in the evening as the shortwave trough lifts east. However, looking to see northeasterly flow set up off of Lake Michigan through the evening and tonight. This looks be enough convergence to form a lake effect band of snow given delta T's from Lake Michigan and temps aloft around 13C. While this is borderline threshold for lake effect snow, especially as the synoptic forcing shifts east, still is a potential to see additional snowfall for southeastern WI through tonight and picking up an additional inch or two, depending on where/if the LES band sets up.

Wagner

LONG TERM

Issued 1204 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Sunday through Saturday:

Arctic high pressure will finish building into Wisconsin on Sunday, sliding eastward and allowing winds to return to southeasterly overnight. Expecting highs in the mid 20s to near freezing on Sunday, with lows in the mid teens overnight.

Monday, southeasterly flow returns and winds increase as low pressure deepens across Ontario, bringing temperatures back into the upper 30s to low 40s. As low pressure occludes across the Hudson Bay Monday night, expect its trailing cold front to begin to interact with ejecting low pressure from the southern High Plains, allowing for a region of warm frontogenesis to build across the Middle Mississippi Valley and expand northeastward into southern Wisconsin overnight into Tuesday. With lows expected to be below freezing Monday night, potential develops for WAA aloft to bring in a period of freezing rain and sleet at the onset of precipitation, with snow towards central Wisconsin.

If phasing between the northern front and the southern Plains system is strong enough as currently portrayed on the major models, surface WAA will allow for temperatures to climb to near 40 degrees across southern Wisconsin during the day Tuesday, allowing most regions to transition to rain or a rain/snow mix. Rain and snow will taper off into Tuesday night as low pressure in the southern Plains ejects eastward and a ridge of high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Expect lows in the upper 20s.

Wednesday, some return flow from the Gulf Coast states may allow for additional cyclogenesis over the Lower Mississippi Valley as low pressure develops in the lee of the Montana Rockies. Between these two features, general lift may develop across southern Wisconsin, bringing back chances for precipitation (20 to 30% chance). As cyclogenesis completes and the resultant low progresses northeastward, more widespread precipitation is possible Wednesday night (50-60%). With temperatures expected to remain just above freezing throughout the overnight time period, expecting primarily rain with a few snowflakes mixing in toward central Wisconsin.

Active pattern remains in place through Thursday and into Friday as low pressure ejects from Montana through the Upper Midwest. Timing and intensity remains in question across models, as multiple shortwaves embedded in the mean flow may phase with the primary low and intensify it at various points in its development. General PoPs in the 20-40% range continue through Saturday due to these uncertainties. However, confidence is high in this period primarily being focused on rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

MH

AVIATION

Issued 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

West to east orientated band of snow is setting up across southern WI this afternoon bringing lower visibility (less than 1sm) and ceilings (1-3kft) where the snow rates (around a 0.5 in/hr or more at times) are heaviest. expect the heaviest band with the greatest flight restriction to set up from DLL/LNR eastward through MSN and just north of UES/MKE. 1-3 inches of accumulation expected within this band through the afternoon and could see pockets of locally higher totals exceeding 3 inches with in this band. This type of banded snow can wobble and may see it actually shift south an impact more of UES and MKE. Otherwise outside of the moderate/heavy band will still see light snow with lower ceiling to around MVFR along with reduced visibilities around 4-6sm and accumulations up to an inch. Will see the snow band work its way through southern WI through the afternoon and gradually depart to the east through the evening with some lingering MVFR ceilings toward the lakeshore terminals. Also could see some additional snow for MKE and ENW as a potential for a light lake effect snow band sets up this evening into tonight. ENW has the better potential to be impacted by this additional band, but still some uncertainty on where and if it will set up in southeast WI. Otherwise, high pressure builds in overnight bringing drier conditions, improving ceilings and lighter winds that will continue into Sunday. Wagner

MARINE

Issued 549 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Gusty northwest winds early this morning will become north to northeast and moderate today into tonight, as strong high pressure around 30.7 inches builds into the Upper Midwest. This high will gradually slide east Sunday into Monday. Expect lighter winds Sunday into Sunday night, before becoming south to southeast on Monday into Monday night. Winds may then become northeast to east toward the middle of next week.

For the nearshore waters, waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels at times later tonight into Sunday morning south of North Point Lighthouse, and again Monday afternoon into Tuesday north of Port Washington. Waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels again Wednesday night into Friday.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.