textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect north of Interstate 94 corridor, for 1 to 3 inches of snow and up to one to two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation into this morning. This advisory will then continue into the afternoon over central Wisconsin, for continued light freezing rain potential.

- The Winter Storm Watch for later today into Monday afternoon has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for most of southern Wisconsin, except for a Winter Weather Advisory for far southeast Wisconsin. Near blizzard conditions are possible later tonight into early Monday morning in the warning areas, especially north and west of Madison.

- Thunderstorms capable of hail are possible this morning into the afternoon, mainly along and south of a Lone Rock to Mequon line.

- A Gale Warning, Storm Warning and Heavy Freezing Spray Warning are now in effect for varying periods through Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM

Issued 105 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Early This Morning through Monday:

The Winter Weather Advisory continues for the northern half of the area into this afternoon. An area of light snow continues within the 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis response and 700 mb warm air advection. This area should continue to push northward into this morning with more warm air advection, bringing light snow that will mix with sleet and freezing rain to northern portions of the area. May see snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches in the far northern counties, with ice accumulations up to one to two tenths of an inch, with lower amounts for the next tier of counties to the south.

The Winter Storm Watch for later today into Monday afternoon has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for most of southern Wisconsin, except for a Winter Weather Advisory for far southeast Wisconsin. Near-blizzard conditions are possible later tonight into early Monday morning in the warning areas, especially north and west of Madison.

There remains enough confidence from the latest model runs of the deterministic models, CAMs and ensembles for the band of a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow to spread southeast across the area later this afternoon into mid-evening. Timed the start of the Warnings and Advisories with the arrival of this band, starting at 4 PM CDT today in the northwest counties to 10 PM CDT this evening in the far southeast counties. This will last until 4 PM CDT Monday afternoon.

The main thing to watch will be the possibility of near-blizzard conditions across the warning areas, especially north and west of Madison. The combination of moderate to heavy snow rates with the strong north winds gusting to 45 MPH at times may bring visibility values down to or below one quarter mile at times. The HRRR suggests the best potential for snowfall rates up to or more than 1 inch per hour are later tonight into early Monday morning, so this will likely be the most impactful period.

There is also the possibility of some sleet and freezing rain accumulations to cause impacts, as it moves through the area later this afternoon and evening. The advisory areas should see lower snowfall amounts, which should reduce the impacts in those areas. Still, the strong winds will bring some blowing and drifting snow in these areas.

There may be blowing and drifting snow impacts that continue through Monday afternoon, thus the Winter Storm Warning continues until 4 PM CDT Monday.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 105 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Monday night through Saturday:

As low pressure exits into Ontario overnight Monday, northwesterly blustery winds will continue. Expect northwesterly winds around 30 MPH through the late overnight hours, falling to 15 MPH by sunrise Tuesday. Overnight lows around 0 degrees F are expected, with elevated winds leading to wind chills in the negative teens in most areas (areas near Lake Michigan will remain slightly warmer, with wind chills in the negative single digits). Arctic high pressure dominates through Tuesday, but with increasing sunshine and March sun angle, expect temperatures to recover into the low 20s. Winds will shift to southerly Tuesday afternoon as a clipper system progresses through the northern Plains.

Tuesday night, a warm frontal feature from the northern Plains low will lift northward through southern Wisconsin, bringing warming temperatures through the overnight hours, but with temperatures remaining below freezing (about 20 degrees by daybreak, lows in the teens in the early overnight hours) expecting mainly snow with precipitation along the warm front. A few inches of snow are possible. Warm nose is present, but model soundings still indicate consistently below freezing temperatures, so not expecting mixed precipitation at this time. Will continue to monitor trends with the next few runs.

Precipitation will exit into Wednesday morning as low pressure pivots northeastward into northern Ontario. A brief period of freezing rain is possible early Wednesday morning, but confidence remains low. Southerly winds will continue, bringing highs in the low 40s. A weak cold front from the parent low will progress southeastward through southern Wisconsin Wednesday night, and may produce a few snow showers (15 to 30 percent chances) as temperatures fall into the low 30s.

Winds diminish under high pressure on Thursday, with highs in the 40s. An additional clipper system traverses southern Canada Thursday night, turning winds back to southerly through Friday morning, bringing highs on Friday into the 50s. A cold front from this system Friday afternoon and night will bring slight chances for rain (about 15 percent) to central Wisconsin, and will drop temperatures back to near freezing overnight.

High pressure dominates Saturday into Saturday night, with additional systems developing to the north Sunday.

MH

AVIATION

Issued 105 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The band of light snow should continue to push northward across northern portions of the area overnight into this morning, bringing an area of light snow mixing with freezing rain and sleet. This should impact Sheboygan at times. There may be some light snow or rain that affects Madison, Waukesha and Milwaukee overnight.

Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 miles with the light snow, with ceilings down to 500 to 1500 feet AGL. Ceilings should remain above 3000 feet AGL to the south of there overnight. East southeast winds will increase overnight as well. Light snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches may occur toward Sheboygan this evening, with rates under one quarter inch per hour. There may be light ice and sleet accumulations as well.

Mainly light rain is expected for terminals to the south overnight into Sunday morning. Gusty east southeast winds overnight will become a little lighter and more variable into this morning, as the low pressure system approaches the area. Ceilings should steadily drop to 500 to 800 feet AGL by midday today, with visibility values dropping to 1 to 2 miles, lower toward Sheboygan and central Wisconsin.

Precipitation will transition from light rain back to a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow from west to east later this afternoon, with moderate to heavy snow this evening into Monday morning. Snowfall rates of up to one inch per hour are possible, mainly west and north of Madison, with one quarter to one half inch per hour rates elsewhere.

Winds will become north and gusty later this afternoon and early this evening into early Monday morning. Blowing and drifting snow is expected, with one mile or lower visibility at times. May see visibility down to one quarter mile in the heaviest snow bands. Ceilings will remain 500 to 800 feet AGL, lower at times.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 105 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Deepening low pressure of 29.4 inches over southeastern Nebraska will swing northeastward through this morning into southern Wisconsin, bringing easterly to southeasterly gales across the lake this morning into midday.

As low pressure crosses southern Lake Michigan this evening, winds will briefly lower across the southern two thirds, while northerly storm force winds develop across the northern third. Northerly storm force winds will spread southward through the middle third of Lake Michigan, as low pressure deepens to 29.1 inches over Lower Michigan this evening, while gales continue across the southern third.

Winds shift to northwesterly into Monday morning, with storm force winds across the northern two thirds and gales across the southern third through Monday evening. Expect winds to slowly diminish as low pressure exits Monday night into Tuesday morning. Heavy freezing spray is also expected to develop Monday morning, as Arctic air pushes southward through the lake, continuing through midday Tuesday. Winds then shift to southeasterly ahead of an approaching weak low around 29.7 inches Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Heavy snow is expected across the northern half of the lake throughout today, transitioning to sleet and freezing rain this afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible across the southern half of the lake this afternoon. Freezing rain and sleet will then spread through the remainder of the lake overnight as thunderstorms end, with a return to heavy snow into Monday morning. Snow will taper off midday Monday.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056- WIZ057-WIZ058 until 4 PM Sunday.

Winter Storm Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ062...4 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday.

Winter Storm Warning...WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ063-WIZ064- WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069...7 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday.

Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ059-WIZ060 until 10 AM Sunday.

Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071- WIZ072...10 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Tuesday.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646- LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870- LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4 AM Monday to 11 AM Tuesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until 7 PM Sunday.

Storm Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...7 PM Sunday to 10 PM Monday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Sunday to 1 AM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM Sunday.