textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow/light snow showers/flurries are expected on and off into Sunday morning, with little to no snow accumulations.

- Gusty northwest winds by early Sunday evening into Monday morning are expected, with a Gale Warning now in effect over the southern two thirds of Lake Michigan.

- Light snow chances are increasing for Tuesday into Tuesday evening (30 to 60 percent chances, highest north), with accumulations generally under an inch.

- Accumulating snow may occur Wednesday night into Thursday (30 to 40-plus percent chances at this time).

UPDATE

Issued 600 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

No major changes to the forecast as we have seen some very light accumulations early this morning but for the most part flurries continue with pockets of light snow. No more than a few tenths of accumulation expected. This expected to continue this morning and lingering into the afternoon further east before this pushes out. For the most part we expect visibilities to remain above 6SM but some pockets of lower visibilities in light snow will be possible. Otherwise some breezy northwest winds expected today has strong high pressure pushes in from the north.

Kuroski

SHORT TERM

Issued 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Overnight through Monday:

A broad area of light snow/light snow showers/flurries are expected to linger on and off into Sunday morning, as differential CVA pushes through the area within cyclonic flow aloft. Forecast soundings are showing a saturated low level profile within the dendrite snow growth zone, and this area may deepen overnight into Sunday morning. Thus, will continue the mention of this light precipitation with higher-end PoPs (70 percent or higher) during this time. The gusty northwest winds should allow for little to no snow accumulations, as the dry, fluffy snow character continues.

Clouds should linger into Sunday as well, before drier air works into the area in the lower levels Sunday night to bring some scattering out of these clouds. High pressure moving into the region Monday should bring more sun and lighter winds. Highs should remain steady in the middle 20s into Sunday, with similar values for Monday. Lows Sunday night should drop into the teens.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Monday night through Saturday:

West northwest flow at 500 mb should persist across the region into the middle of the week. The first clipper system should push through the area either later Tuesday or Tuesday evening, with a fairly well-organized 500 mb shortwave trough. A surface low should shift southeast through the region, tracking to the north of the area. Some focused warm air advection Tuesday afternoon, along with the differential CVA with the shortwave trough passage and some low level frontogenesis response, should combine to bring increasing chances (30 to 60-plus percent) of light snow to the area.

The best chances would be in northern and northeastern portions of the area, where ensemble members have the most members with measurable QPF. Light snow accumulations under an inch are possible, depending on the exact track of this system.

There should be a brief break after the first clipper system moves out of the area either later Tuesday night or Wednesday morning and into Wednesday evening. Then, another clipper/low pressure system should shift to the south of the region later Wednesday night into Thursday, with the associated 500 mb shortwave trough. The track of this system may still clip the area on its northern extent, with several ensemble members showing measurable QPF in southern portions of the area.

There may be an area of mid-level frontogenesis response from this system to bring banded precipitation during this time, though it may be just south of the area. It would be close enough to watch for its potential for accumulating snow as this period draws closer. Continued to mention 30 to 40-plus percent chances for precipitation for Wednesday night into Thursday. Depending on how surface and low level temperatures are, there may be some mixed precipitation early on during this period, before becoming all light snow.

Ensembles then suggest a good warmup for Friday, as south to southwest winds bring strong warm air advection into the area. Highs should climb well above normal for Friday.

A strong cold front then may shift southeast through the area Friday night, with robust cold air advection into next weekend on northwest to north winds. This should bring a return to more seasonable temperatures.

Wood

AVIATION

Issued 600 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Light snow or flurries continue across much of southern WI with pockets of snow enough to bring pockets of MVFR VSBYS. The snow chances will gradually swing out of southern WI later today but will persist across the east until the early evening. Otherwise borderline MVFR/VFR CIGS early this morning which over the course of the day will become predominantly MVFR. MVFR will then clear out gradually overnight as skies clear overnight with higher pressure pushing in.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Gusty northwest winds will continue overnight into Sunday, as low pressure strengthens to around 29.3 inches off the mid- Atlantic coast and strong high pressure over Manitoba builds to around 31.1 inches.

As the high pushes eastward into Ontario Sunday night, expect gales to develop across the southern two-thirds of the open waters of Lake Michigan. A Gale Warning is now in effect Sunday night into midday Monday. Moderate freezing spray is also expected, with some heavy freezing spray possible in the central third of the lake.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters until early Monday evening, for gusty northwest winds and building waves toward the open waters of Lake Michigan.

Winds will gradually diminish into Monday, as strong low pressure around 28.7 inches moves toward Nova Scotia and high pressure around 30.6 inches lingers over the western Great Lakes region.

A modest south wind develops Tuesday, as the strong high pressure system continues eastward and weak low pressure around 29.5 inches moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes. A cold front from this low will turn winds northwesterly again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM Sunday to noon Monday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Monday.