textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM across Marquette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan Counties. - Quick round of light to occasionally moderate snow remains forecast through this afternoon. Slushy accumulations up to one inch.

- High precip chances (65-85%) Thursday evening/night, with expectations for some snow to mix in with rain late overnight into Friday morning.

- Additional precipitation chances develop Saturday into Sunday. High confidence in precipitation, but confidence in precipitation type and placement is lower. Snow is possible Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued 935 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Window for light freezing drizzle/rain has largely closed across southern Wisconsin as deeper low level moisture & moisture transport have shifted east into Lower Michigan. Focus is now shifting to the band of light to occasionally moderate snow beginning to work in from the west. Activity is being encouraged by a band narrow band of frontogenesis rooted near the 700 mb level, with short term model guidance depicting the forcing moving across southern Wisconsin late this morning through this afternoon. Timing estimates from radar place the leading edge of snow into Monroe-Madison-Beaver Dam between now and 11 AM, Janesville-Oconomowoc-West Bend-Plymouth between 11 AM and Noon, and Burlington-Milwaukee-Sheboygan between Noon and 1 PM. Upstream observations & radar returns indicate that a brief period of 0.25-0.5" per hour rates will be possible along the leading edge of snowfall, with rates quickly falling off thereafter as the narrow frontogenesis band pivots east. Going forecast of a quick half inch of snow, with a few locally higher totals to an inch, is thus on track through this afternoon.

Ongoing Winter Weather Advisory was issued largely for light icing impacts through mid-morning, but will be maintained through 1 PM CDT with the band of snow/brief moderate rates moving in from the west. Don't currently anticipate a need for any extensions, but will be coordinating final decisions with neighboring offices in the next couple hours. Will have a final update regarding headlines by the early afternoon update.

Quigley

SHORT TERM

Issued 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Early this Morning through Thursday night:

Attention turns to the freezing drizzle risk tonight as some forcing continues in the low levels but we lose our ice aloft and maintain significant moisture in the lower 300mb. The vertical profiles are suggestive of a more sleet type outlook but given the lack of ice the expectation is drizzle and freezing drizzle primarily. The highest risk will be further north toward central WI where temperature will likely be a bit chillier allowing for a more prolonged period for potential icing. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the northern tier of counties of the CWA for these icing concerns.

Later today the back half of the system in the TROWAL region will make it way through the CWA later Wednesday morning into the afternoon bringing a bit of snow to the region with slushy accumulations up to a half inch or so. The system will fully push out by the late afternoon with higher pressure pushing back in behind the system into the evening.

During the day Thursday weather is largely expected to remain quiet, however come Thursday night expect a quick hitting strong low pressure system to swing through the area with strong UL support. There will be strong midlevel WAA with this system as well and the increasing strength of the system has lent itself to trending toward a warmer system as well. The 540 line has swung way north in the latest model runs with guidance suggestive of a largely rain event. Certainly some snow on the backside of the system is to be expected after the cold front swings through but the air really starts to dry out behind the front and thus snow amounts have really fallen off. Generally expect primarily rain with some snow showers lingering behind the front with limited accumulation expected at this time.

The other primary feature playing a role with this system as mention were the minds aloft and sounding are somewhat suggestive that winds may start mixing overnight and with the strong winds aloft (45-55kts right off the deck). This could mean Advisory level winds but the better chances remain into Friday when the sun should allow for better mixing overall.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

Some potential for lingering snow on the back end of the low pressure system pushing through though it should dry out by the early afternoon at the latest. The lingering snow in the morning would largely be associated with weak TROWAL effects. The primary impact on Friday will likely be the winds with 45-55kt winds aloft which may mix down given strong CAA particularly into the day as the sun warms the surface. This will likely bring about the potential for Advisory level winds. Winds will calm back down as higher pressure briefly pushes back in Friday night.

However, another system will roll in Saturday and given the cooler air being ushered in from the previous storms this next system will likely be a colder system featuring possibly mostly snow. Lots of uncertainty in the track persist given some phasing issues that may change the trajectory of the system. This will bring an extended period of precip Saturday and through much of Sunday. The majority of this system will track through Saturday night and Sunday. The concern with this system is the potential for the low to track through central IL and northern IN. This would be a colder track with lots of snow and potential for Fgen banding being on the northwest side of the low. However, a north track may yield more mixy precip and a south track may end up only clipping us for the most part. The potential does exist for a fairly large snow event if things play out with the low track mentioned but the uncertainty still brings in a lot of unknowns that will greatly affect the degree to which this system will impact us. Snow would likely exit Sunday night.

Higher pressure will return Monday in a meridional pattern which may yield some small events early next week but there is a high degree of uncertainty at this timeframe.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 527 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Widespread drizzle has developed with freezing drizzle mainly north of Madison but will expand to the east and south a bit this morning. The drizzle will then become snow late this morning and through the afternoon. Cigs will remain well below 1 kft this morning then gradually rise to MVFR Cigs this afternoon with clearing skies afterward. Vsbys with the drizzle and BR will range from 2-5SM, then 1-2SM with the light snow later. VFR conditions tnt-Thu AM.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low pressure in northern Illinois tonight, reaching southwest Michigan early Wednesday morning. Northeast winds will become northerly tonight as the low passes over far southern Lake Michigan. Gusty northwest winds are likely Wednesday into Wednesday evening behind the low. Confidence for widespread gales has increased enough to warrant a Gale Warning with the latest guidance.

Lighter winds are likely later Wednesday night into early Thursday as high pressure briefly moves through. Strong low pressure is then expected to move through northern Wisconsin into northern Michigan Thursday night into Friday. Increasing southerly winds are expected later Thursday into Thursday night ahead of the low. Though the cold lake may dampen the gust potential Thursday night, southerly gales are increasingly likely. There is a better chance for west to northwest gales on Friday behind the low. Could even see a few gusts approach storm force per latest models. For now we have issued the Gale Watch for Thursday night and Friday winds with the potential for a few storm force gusts.

Winds are expected to ease Friday night into Saturday as high pressure moves in from the northwest. Another strong low pressure system is likely to move through the region late in the weekend into early next week, with another round of gales possible.

Periods of Small Craft Conditions are expected throughout the week with one currently in effect through Wednesday evening

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052 until 1 PM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.

Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673- LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...7 PM Thursday to 1 AM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM Thursday.