textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- West to east band of 1-3 inches of snow with narrow swath exceeding 3 inches expected across southern half of WI during the day Saturday. However, uncertainty on exactly where the band of the heaviest snow will set up remains as trends continue to shift.

- Precip chances are lower for Sunday night as Arctic highs builds over the area.

- Gradually warming trend through next week with periodic precipitation chances through the end of next week.

UPDATE

Issued 654 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Wind gusts out of the WNW along and behind the cold front are in the 25 to 30 kt range in the Rochester and La Crosse areas. So expect a 3-6 hr period of gusty winds after the front arrives in southern WI before they drop off overnight with high pressure quickly settling in. Timing is approximately 8 PM in Madison and 10 PM in Milwaukee, although the wind shift is pretty gradual and there are no clouds or precip associated with the front. Lows will drop into the 20s overnight.

Cronce

SHORT TERM

Issued 217 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

Mild temps this afternoon will give way to cooler conditions this evening as a cold front swings through the region as a sub 990mb treks across Ontario. Expect breezy west to northwesterly winds behind the front with temps dipping into 20s.

The main focus of the short-term is the west to east orientated band of snow expected to develop across southern half of WI later Saturday morning and move through the afternoon. There is agreement that a mid-level shortwave trough on the backside of the main upper- level trough will works its way through the area aligning with a secondary cold front ahead of the Arctic high, band of strong 700mb frontogenesis, and edge of the 850mb WAA lifting in from the south which will bring increased PoP chances to our CWA through the day Saturday. The environment will be below 0C and saturated throughout the column as the upper-level forcing moves in supporting snow with SLR ranging from 13:1 up to 19:1. Given the mean QPF values (12z HREF) ranging from around 0.1" up to around 0.25" will be enough for swath of 1-3 inches snow. Given the main driver of this snow band is low-level frontogenesis and typically have a tendency to overperform, expect to see a narrow band of higher QPF greater than 0.25" and snow totals exceeding 3 inches possible.

While there is confidence for a west to east band of snow to develop and impact southern WI through Saturday afternoon, the main hurdle remains where exactly this band will eventually setup. The morning CAMs such as HRRR, NAM Nest and RAP have been trending this band further north toward central WI, while other models such as the NSSL, GFS, AIGFS, ECMWF and CMC have been keeping the band across the further south across central part of the CWA. So uncertainty in the snow band location lies with the evolving nature of the forcing and run to run variance between the models.

Overall, taking a slower approach with this system when it comes to headlines, but do expect a swath of 3"+ of snow with higher snow rates to occur somewhere in the CWA and may eventually need a headline. Just do not have the confidence at this point to pinpoint exactly where it will set up as if a 10-20 mile shift will make a big difference in advisory level snow and a dusting.

Snow will gradually taper off through the evening as the forcing shifts out of the area and Arctic high pressure builds down across the area overnight. Expect brisk conditions and temps falling into the single digits to lower teens overnight Saturday.

Wagner

LONG TERM

Issued 217 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Back end of the upper-level trough and northwesterly flow sets up across the Upper Midwest for Sunday. At the surface looking at high pressure to build down across the region through the day and will bring cooler and drier conditions to southern WI. Given this pattern and trend, have cut back on the PoP during this timeframe as should be enough subsidence to keep any chances to our south more into IL where the better moisture and low-level forcing remains situated.

High pressure continues to skirt into the eastern Great Lakes through the start of next week. Will see a return of southerly flow and WAA gradually build into our neck of the woods under the upper- level zonal flow pattern. Temps gradually warm through this period with near normal highs through midweek. There continues to be a potential for temps to warm above normal for the later half of next week, but given the active pattern and run to run variance, will be difficult to pinpoint at this time.

The pattern looks to become more active weatherwise midweek through the end of next week as medium and long range models and ensembles continue to hint a series of mid-level disturbances and shortwave trough to traverse the area every other day. However, models vary on timing and strength of these disturbances, but nonetheless there will be increase PoP chances through the extended associated with this more active pattern.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 654 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

A cold front will drop through southern WI this evening. Wind gusts out of the WNW along and behind the cold front are in the 25 to 30 kt range in the Rochester and La Crosse areas. So expect a 3-6 hr period of gusty winds after the front arrives in southern WI before they drop off overnight with high pressure quickly settling in. Timing is approximately 8 PM in Madison and 10 PM in Milwaukee, although the wind shift is pretty gradual and there are no clouds or precip associated with the front.

Light snow will spread into southern WI from the west Saturday morning and exit by early Saturday evening. Dry air in the low levels will quickly erode and allow for MVFR ceilings and generally 3SM light snow to begin by noon. A band of heavier snow with rates up to an inch per hour will be embedded within the lighter snow, but also keep moving and not stay in one place for a long period of time. MVFR ceilings will persist over southern WI after the snow ends by 7 PM. Flurries are possible overnight.

Cronce

MARINE

Issued 217 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Low pressure continues to track across Ontario this evening and will drag a cold front across Lake Michigan tonight. Expect gusty southwesterly winds to shift more west then northwest behind the front. Close to the low expect strongest gusts to develop with gale force gusts across the northern third of the Lake this evening into early Saturday morning. Then the low pressure will lift northeast through the day Saturday with gusty northerly winds lingering until an Arctic high pressure builds to across the Upper Midwest Saturday evening and gradually slide east through the start of next week. Expect lighter winds to accompany this high pressure and eventually turn southerly Monday into mid next week.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 until 2 AM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 2 AM Saturday.