textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain chances (about 20 to 45 percent) return later tonight through Tuesday morning. Some light freezing drizzle/rain or light snow could briefly mix in before 9 AM Tuesday (when temperatures rise), though widespread impacts aren't currently anticipated. Highest precip chances are south of a Wisconsin Dells to Watertown to Kenosha line.

- A warming trend Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Additional periods of rain are forecast Wednesday into Thursday (about 30 to 70 percent chances) and Friday into Saturday (about 75 to 90 percent chances). Some thunderstorms are possible in each round of rain.

SHORT TERM

Issued 135 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Tonight and Tuesday:

An arc of low stratus clouds will gradually push eastward from southeastern MN / eastern IA, reaching south-central WI then eroding through this evening. High clouds approach and gradually thicken tonight, holding overnight low temperatures close to the freezing mark. Our forecast calls for surface air temps bottoming out a few degrees below freezing, though right at freezing or ~1 degree above freezing temps are also possible depending on how quickly clouds arrive and inhibit radiational cooling.

A WNW to ESE oriented band of 850-700mb frontogenesis will track eastward across our region from 3 AM to Noon CST Tuesday, delivering 20-45% precip chances (which are highest south of a Wisconsin Dells to Watertown to Kenosha line). Though precip will only last for a few hours off/on in any given area, there will be a window (before 9 AM CST Tuesday) for wintry precipitation to mix in, either light freezing rain or light snow. The snow would be of minimal concern, and practically wouldn't accumulate at all, but there is potential for a very thin glaze of ice from the light freezing rain / drizzle. Both the forecast air temperatures and precip 'chances' leave in question whether this thin glaze of ice would be able to form, it may boil down to whether or not pavement temperatures are cold enough in any given area. Eastern and east-central WI have drier air throughout the column during the event (hence the lower end of the precip chances, around 20%) and may fail to observe any measurable precip at all.

Though clouds do linger into Tuesday afternoon before scattering apart, temperatures manage to climb to the 40s (upper 40s for some inland areas, low 40s by the shoreline), with light and variable winds.

Sheppard

LONG TERM

Issued 135 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Tuesday night through Monday:

Weak low pressure developing over the central Great Plains will work with departed high pressure (offshore of the northeastern CONUS) on Tuesday to develop a warm front spanning from the middle Mississippi River Valley through Ohio on Tuesday. The aforementioned low tracks northeastward along it's warm front, tracking just to the south of our region Wednesday and leading to some 15-30% rain chances (highest further south). These rain chances ramp up (50-70%) late Wednesday night into Thursday as the low intensifies and tracks past the southern tip of Lake Michigan. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be completely ruled out (less than 25% chance though, thus not present in our forecast grids), but any convection would be elevated based on our positioning north of the warm front. A slight lull in the rain chances unfolds Thursday night.

Both Wednesday and Thursday feature above normal temperatures, with inland daytime highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, likely cooler towards the lakeshore.

A much more organized Colorado low pressure tracks northeastward across our region later this week, with high rain chances (70-90%) Friday into Friday night. The exact track of this low remains uncertain, there's potential for it to track roughly overhead, delivering high temps in the mid to upper 50s, or alternatively track across far northern portions of the state and deliver highs in the 60s. Both of these tracks come with moderate rainfall, but the northern track would put us in the warm sector, significantly boosting thunderstorm chances. As such, we'll be watching trends in the system track closely.

A lull in this active weather pattern is possible this weekend, specifically later Saturday into Sunday. Our best guess is for the CAA on the back side of the departing low pressure to be weak, leaving temperatures above normal. A separate low pressure system tracking eastward across central Canada into Sunday may allow WAA to briefly resume early next week before temperatures return closer to seasonal norms.

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 135 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Dry weather and VFR expected through this afternoon and evening. A deck of low stratus (at MVFR altitude) over southeastern MN and eastern IA is gradually pushing eastward into south-central WI, but the edges of it are closer to 4,000 ft altitude (VFR), and we expect these clouds to initially push into the KMSN and KJVL TAF sites at this altitude later this afternoon into this evening (will plan to send a TAF amendment to that effect shortly). These 4,000 ft clouds should gradually spread eastward, likely scattering out with time.

High clouds gradually thicken and descend in altitude overnight, followed by 20-45% precip chances after midnight tonight through Tuesday morning, with the highest chances south of a KDLL-KRYV- KENW line. Though this is mainly a rain event, and precip will only last a few hours within this time window (in any given location), there will be a window (before 9 AM Tuesday) for light freezing rain or light snow to mix in with the rain. As such, a thin glaze of ice cannot be ruled out early Tuesday morning, especially towards southwestern and south-central WI. MVFR ceilings and nearly calm winds expected with this activity region-wide.

By Tuesday afternoon, generally 15% or less precip chances, with light and variable winds. Cloud ceilings gradually lift and scatter to VFR by sunset.

Sheppard

MARINE

Issued 135 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Low pressure around 29.5 inches will move east into Hudson Bay today, with high pressure around 30.6 inches moving east through the northeastern CONUS. This will drive breezy south to southeast winds across Lake Michigan today, particularly over the northern third of the lake where gusts to 30 knots are possible. Winds will subside tonight into Tuesday as both pressure systems depart eastward, with light and variable winds Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

Light east to northeast winds develop into Wednesday as weak low pressure around 29.9 inches develops over the central Great Plains, tracking northeastward through the middle Mississippi River Valley. The low will approach and ultimately pass near or just south of the southern portions of the lake Wednesday night into Thursday. East to northeast winds will linger. Periods of rain will accompany the low Wednesday into Thursday, with a few thunderstorms possible over southern Lake Michigan Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Another low pressure system around 29.5 inches will form in the central Great Plains Thursday night, and is forecast to progress toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley during the day on Friday. The approach of the low will bring increasing southerly winds to the open waters on Friday, along with widespread areas of rain and embedded thunderstorms.

The low will move northeast across the region and into Ontario Friday night through Saturday, dragging a cold front across Lake Michigan in the process. Additional rain is expected during the frontal passage. Winds will veer southwest to west as the front passes.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.