textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is expected on and off tonight into Sunday morning, with generally a trace to a couple tenths of accumulations possible in southeastern Wisconsin.

- Northwesterly gusty winds develop Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, with gales possible over Lake Michigan.

- A wintry mix of snow and rain possible Tuesday and Tuesday night (30 to 60 percent chance). Accumulating snow possible Wednesday night into Thursday (~30 percent chance).

UPDATE

Issued 601 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

The mid and upper level shortwave have been slow to progress eastward this evening which is limiting the lift for flurries across southern Wisconsin. Still anticipating flurries and very light snow showers to develop yet tonight, but the onset is a bit delayed. We are getting some industrial snow from power plants around the region so there will be areas were flurries are more prominent. No major changes to accumulations amounts as a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch are the most any one location could get.

Patterson

SHORT TERM

Issued 137 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Tonight through Sunday night:

Flurries are expected to spread through southern Wisconsin this afternoon as consistent northwesterly winds create just enough turbulence in the low stratus to drive light precipitation. Into late tonight, a 500 mb shortwave diving southward through Wisconsin will serve to create just enough lift and moisture convergence to produce scattered light snow showers across southeastern to south-central Wisconsin (~30 percent chance in any given location). Not anticipating more than a couple tenths of an inch of accumulation due to the weak lift and lack of frontogenesis keeping snow showery and light.

An additional wave of moisture sweeps southward through the same areas into Sunday morning, with an additional trace of snow possible within additional showers. A few flurries may linger into Sunday afternoon before tapering off completely as low pressure exits from Lake Huron.

Winds increase into Sunday afternoon, with gusts near 30 mph expected. Skies will finally begin breaking up into Sunday evening as high pressure builds from the northern Plains. With incoming high pressure comes an additional wave of cold air, with lows Sunday night in the low teens to upper single digits. Wind chills in the single digits below zero are possible as winds remain elevated overnight.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 137 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Monday through Saturday:

Winds will gradually diminish through Monday afternoon, with Canadian high pressure leading to clearing skies and highs in the mid-20s. Light and variable winds are expected overnight Monday with clear skies allowing for temperatures to cool back into the mid-teens. High pressure will continue its propagation eastward as low pressure propagates across the southern Canadian Prairies into northern Minnesota into Tuesday, allowing for winds to shift southerly and bringing temperatures back into the mid to upper 30s. Low pressure will make its closest approach Tuesday afternoon, bringing the next chances (30 to 60 percent) for a rain and snow mix. The cold front from the system will bring a return to temperatures in the 20s Tuesday night, and highs near freezing Wednesday. Wednesday evening, a low ejecting from the Colorado Rockies may sneak far enough north to produce snowfall across southern Wisconsin (30 to 40 percent chances).

After low pressure exits to the northeast Thursday morning, dry conditions with light surface WAA and increasing sunshine will allow for climbing temperatures Thursday into Friday. May see a return to the upper 40s by Friday as low pressure develops in the Canadian Prairies and brings strong surface WAA through southern Wisconsin. As this system passes to the north, a few rain and snow showers are possible once again (~20 percent).

MH

AVIATION

Issued 601 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

MVFR ceilings will persist through the period. Ceilings are largely expected to be around 2-3 kft. There is a small chance for a narrow band of clearing to move into west central Wisconsin which would raise ceilings across DLL or LNR. If the clearing does move in, clouds will build back in within an hour or two. Late tonight into Sunday morning there will be a potential for very light snow and flurries to develop. The best chances (~30%) for any flurries will be across eastern Wisconsin. This will be a dry and powdery snow that is easily blown around with minor accumulations of a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch. Since confidence is low on showers developing is possible that many locations have no accumulations through the overnight period. If snow develops it will taper off by Sunday afternoon. The MVFR clouds remain until Sunday night.

Winds will remain northwesterly and breezy through the period. Gusts around 25 to 30 MPH will be possible tonight through Sunday night.

Patterson

MARINE

Issued 137 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Northwesterly winds will continue throughout this afternoon and tonight, with gusty conditions developing after midnight CST tonight as low pressure deepens off the mid-Atlantic coast and strong Canadian high pressure builds. Gusts are expected to be hazardous to Small Craft. As high pressure builds eastward into Ontario Sunday night, expect gales to develop across the southern two-thirds of the open waters. A Gale Watch is in effect Sunday night into Monday midday. Winds will gradually diminish into Monday as low pressure lifts into the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds over the western Great Lakes region. A modest south breeze develops Tuesday as high pressure continues eastward and weak low pressure progresses eastward through the northern Great Lakes. A cold front from this low will turn winds northwesterly again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Sunday to 3 PM Monday.

Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673- LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...7 PM Sunday to noon Monday.