textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold today, with highs in the low to mid teens.

- Light wintry precipitation Friday night.

- Several potential chances for snow through mid week next week.

SHORT TERM

Issued 230 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Today and Tonight:

High pressure is building south into the region this morning. Winds remain breezy as of 2 AM, but will settle over the next few hours. With clear skies in place, look for lows to fall to between about 0 and -5 degrees. Wind chills be variable, but many locations should see readings between -5 and -15 at times, with a few spots briefly falling to around -20.

Mostly sunny but cold conditions are expected for today, with highs in the low to mid teens. Wind chills will top out between zero and 5 above. Clouds begin to increase tonight, with temperatures not quite as cold--generally in the low to mid single digits above zero.

Boxell

LONG TERM

Issued 230 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

Southwest winds will pick up on Friday ahead of a cold front. Very light precipitation is expected to push south into the region Friday afternoon, progressing southward through Friday night. This should mostly be in the form of light snow, though some forecast soundings are indicating a marginal level of saturation in the ice growth zone, suggesting that a few pockets of freezing drizzle will be possible Friday night. This will be a forecast trend to keep an eye on over the next few days.

Another shortwave will move through the area on Sunday, bringing a 30-50 percent chance for light snow to the region. There's still a fair amount of uncertainty with the track of this system, and it's possible the bulk of the precipitation ends up to our south.

Extended guidance continues to paint an active pattern for the region through mid week, with multiple shortwaves. While there is still a lot of variability with timing/strength/impact of these waves, ensemble guidance seems to be honing in on a more substantial wave (or two) passing through between about Monday and Wednesday. This currently looks to be the most favored window for accumulating snow potential.

Temperatures through the extended look to remain below average, with highs in the 20s on Saturday and Sunday, and in the teens on Monday. A slight moderation is possible mid week, with upper 20s to around 30 possible. Lows through the stretch will be in the single digits and teens.

Boxell

AVIATION

Issued 230 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected today, with clear/mostly sunny conditions. Winds will become southwesterly by late afternoon into this evening.

Increasing low level moisture will eventually result in ceilings building downward Friday morning, with MVFR to IFR conditions increasingly likely through the day on Friday.

Boxell

MARINE

Issued 230 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Breezy northwest winds will continue this morning, especially across the eastern half of the lake. Freezing spray will remain a concern. High pressure of 30.4 inches will move across Iowa and then through northern Illinois and Indiana today. As that happens, look for winds to turn back to a southwesterly direction by tonight.

Winds will increase this evening to gale force over the northern half of the lake, as the pressure gradient tightens between the departing high and an area of low pressure averaging 29.7 inches moving across southwestern Ontario. A Gale Warning is in effect from late this evening through mid morning on Friday for the open water. Freezing spray is also expected during this time. For the nearshore, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from late this evening through late Friday morning.

A cold front will drape across the open waters Friday into Friday night, bringing lighter westerly winds.

Boxell

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868...9 PM Thursday to 9 AM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM Thursday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM Thursday to 11 AM Friday.