textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of light snow will progress west to east through southern Wisconsin through tonight, with a brief period of freezing drizzle also expected after the snow ends. Expect a dusting to approximately 0.5 inch of snow and up to a light glaze of icing. Snow and freezing drizzle end early Monday morning (by 5 AM CST).

- A weak clipper system may (approximately 20 percent chance) bring light snow to areas southwest of Madison Monday night into early Tuesday morning. - Milder this week, with highs in the low to mid 20s through Wednesday, then 30s for Thursday and most of the area on Friday.

- Chances for light snow (25 to 45 percent) returns Thursday afternoon into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued 958 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

A band of light snow progressing west to east across southern Wisconsin is still expected to produce minimal accumulations (less than 0.5 inch in the majority of locations). Although the majority of lift has remained focused along this main band, convergence ahead of an effective weak warm front moving southeastward is leading to a broad area of light radar reflectivity returns that are likely associated with an area of freezing drizzle. Upstream observations are at minimum showing drops in visibility and low ceilings, with previous manual observations taken in eastern Iowa and Minnesota indicating freezing drizzle as a likely precipitation type. Therefore, confidence has increased in a period of freezing drizzle between snow ending and the frontal passage drying things out early Monday morning (between 1 AM and 5 AM CST). Still, only a light glaze of icing is expected.

MH

SHORT TERM

Issued 239 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Snow largely underperformed early this afternoon as lingering dry air from the high pressure that moved through last night held firm. Looking at upstream obs near Minneapolis, snow along the sfc trough should perform better and spread east through southern WI during the evening into tonight. Snow totals will generally be a few tenths less than previous forecasts and stay at or below a half inch. There have been some reports of freezing drizzle immediately following the band of snow across MN. Confidence remains low that freezing drizzle will be realized here, but some freezing drizzle following the snow tonight can't completely be ruled out given RAP soundings over southern WI just barely lose ice crystals aloft while remaining saturated near the surface Monday morning before dawn.

Once snow moves out, the rest of the daytime on Monday looks dry. A weak clipper system is expected to move through the eastern Corn Belt Monday night and may offer a glancing blow of light snow to the area southwest of Madison. For now 15 to 20% PoPs have been introduced to Iowa, Lafayette, Green, and Rock Counties from 06Z to 12Z Tuesday.

CMiller

LONG TERM

Issued 222 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

Not many changes to the extended forecast today. Northwest flow over the Upper Midwest and troughing over the Eastern US will promote relatively dry conditions and highs in the upper teens to low 20s. High pressure sinking southeast into the state will keep skies mostly clear Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday, Global forecast models have generally shifted the position of the surface low that's expected to bring us our next snowfall chances further north. Its positioning will still promote southerlies and some modest WAA over the area however. Temperatures will rise to near freezing. Snow chances look to have decreased slightly as more of the optimal forcing for ascent from the WAA will be displaced further into northern WI and Upper Michigan. Snow chances now sit between 25 to 45% for Thursday afternoon into Friday.

Models continue to agree that another push of arctic air will briefly occur behind a cold front in association with this low to the north, and temperatures may briefly dip into the teens and low 20s on Saturday, before moderating into the mid to upper 20s on Sunday.

CMiller

AVIATION

Issued 958 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

A band of light snow will continue to progress eastward, reaching Lake Michigan terminals within the next hour. Expect reductions in visibility as low as 3 SM, with accumulations generally less than 0.5 inch. As snow exits, a 2 to 3 hour period of freezing drizzle is expected to develop across all of southern Wisconsin. A glaze of icing is possible with this activity. All precipitation is expected to end across southern Wisconsin by 5 AM CST as a front pushes through west to east. Ceilings will remain around 1000 ft into the early morning hours before gradually improving.

Southwesterly breezes continue through late tonight, becoming light and gradually shifting to become northwesterly and increasing back to around 10 kt into Monday morning. Northwesterly winds will persist into Monday evening, but will become light again Monday night.

MH

MARINE

Issued 246 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Breezy southwest winds to 20 knots continue through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will then ease in strength Monday morning and come around to northwesterly following the front. Light to moderate northwest winds are then expected to continue until late in the work week when a low pressure trough approaches the lake. Southwest winds will return for Thursday, before north northwest winds return on Friday behind a cold front. Gales and moderate freezing spray may occur behind the cold front.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.