textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills will fall into the negative teens for several hours tonight.

- Above average temperatures develop Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.

- The next chances for precipitation (50 to 60 percent) develop late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With temperatures near to above freezing, much of this precipitation is expected to be rain. A transition to snow is possible overnight.

SHORT TERM

Issued 259 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Tonight through Monday night:

High pressure building across the region will lead to light and variable winds this evening into tonight before shifting to become southwesterly late tonight as high pressure slides off to the east and low pressure pushes into the northern Plains. Gusts between 20 and 30 mph will develop overnight as high pressure exits, bringing wind chills in the negative teens once again. However, these gusty southwest winds will also usher in a much warmer airmass, so wind chills are expected to improve overnight as temperatures warm even before sunrise. High temperatures in the mid-20s are expected on Monday, with perhaps a few snow flurries in central Wisconsin in the morning hours as low pressure weakens and swings northeastward into Quebec.

Monday night, winds diminish, but generally remain southerly. Expect lows in the low teens to upper single digits, with the highest temperatures along Lake Michigan.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 259 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

Quite the pattern change expected for the Upper Midwest this week. Overall will see a gradually warming trend Tuesday through Thursday with prevailing southerly flow and WAA. Temps will warm into the mid to upper 30s each afternoon. There is even a 30-40% chance based off the NBM to see high temps crack into the 40s on Wednesday and 40-60% chance on Thursday for southeasterly WI.

While southern WI enjoys this warm up, will also see a fairly progressive pattern with an upper-level ridged building across the region on Tuesday followed by a shortwave trough digging in Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall, will see the pressure gradient tighten up and become breezy as a cold front swings through overnight Tuesday, but generally expecting a dry front passage. Will see high pressure/ridge build back in quickly behind the front for Wednesday with low-level WAA spreading across the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

Thursday looks to be the most active period of the extended with an upper-level trough digging across the Northern Plains and into the Upper Great Lakes through the day. Models continues to bounce between solutions and track of the surface low with this system. Latest 12z mid-range models generally agree on the the deepening low to track across northern MN into the Lake Superior region through the day Thursday. This will keep southern WI in the warm sector of the system and with a slug of Pacific moisture combining with Gulf moisture will result in increase precipitation chances (40- 70%). Still some questions on the precip type as it depends on the low track and timing, but could see rain during daytime hours ahead of the cold front, and then some wintry mix into Thursday night and transitions to snow on the backside/CAA side of the passing system. Nevertheless, will need to keep an eye on trends over the next few days with this end of week system.

Otherwise, things look to cool down for the end of the week before warming back up into the weekend with another system progged to trek across region bringing additional precip chances and return of colder airmass for the latter half of the weekend.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 259 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Remaining low clouds have dissipated, with VFR conditions expected to continue throughout tonight. Westerly to northwesterly winds continue near Lake Michigan, with light and variable winds developing inland as high pressure moves in. High clouds will develop overnight, with gusty southwesterly winds also developing. Southwesterly low level wind shear also develops during the late overnight hours. Wind shear decreases into Monday morning, while southwest wind gusts continue. Winds diminish slowly Monday afternoon as a weak cold front moves through, shifting winds to westerly and light overnight Monday. VFR conditions continue throughout Monday.

MH

MARINE

Issued 259 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Winds will continue to diminish this evening as high pressure builds from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. High pressure exits to the east into Monday morning as low pressure sinks into the northern Plains. Expect gusty southwest winds to develop late tonight into Monday afternoon between these systems. A Gale Warning is in effect for this time frame in the open waters, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore regions.

A weak cold front shifts winds to westerly Monday afternoon and evening. Low pressure then develops in southern Alberta and progresses eastward across southern Canada, bringing gusty southwest winds and gale potential to the northern half of the lake Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Winds diminish and become westerly, then northwesterly late Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure exits. Another system is expected on Thursday, bringing gusty southwest winds in the morning to afternoon hours, and gusty northwest winds Thursday night into Friday.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM Monday to noon Monday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...2 AM Monday to 3 PM Monday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...2 AM Monday to noon Monday.