textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light snow showers and flurries should gradually dissipate by early this evening northeast of line from the Wisconsin Dells to Milwaukee. At most, a dusting of snow accumulation and brief drops in visibility are possible.

- Dry and windy this weekend, approaching elevated fire weather conditions each afternoon.

- Warm up this weekend and above normal temps are expected for the start of next week.

- Trends continue to favor an active pattern next week, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued 704 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Scattered light snow showers and flurries should gradually dissipate by early this evening northeast of a line from the Wisconsin Dells to Milwaukee. The loss of daytime heating with the main upward vertical motion from the passing vorticity advection shifting east of the area should bring this activity to a gradual end. At most, there may be a brief dusting of snowfall and visibility drops with any heavier snow showers, with the best chances toward Sheboygan. This should be rather isolated, with most of the activity being flurries.

Broken cloud cover should gradually scatter out this evening, with mostly clear skies overnight into Saturday morning expected. The gusty northwest winds should weaken this evening, with light winds expected overnight into early Saturday morning, as high pressure passes by to the southwest of the area.

Warm air advection on Saturday is expected, with increasing south to southwest winds in a tightening pressure gradient. This should bring dry conditions, with some high clouds moving through at times. Forecast soundings show a very dry layer below 8000 feet AGL Saturday, with the gusty low level winds bringing good mixing out potential of dew points. This should bring very low relative humidity values of 15 to 25 percent over most of the area, lowest in south central Wisconsin. May see some lower values as well in this area Saturday afternoon. This may lead to elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon.

Highs should reach the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, with south to south southeast winds in the afternoon near the lake possibly keeping highs in the middle 40s there.

Wood

SHORT TERM

Issued 1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

Continue to monitor the upper-level shortwave trough swinging through the Upper Midwest today. Seeing light radar reflectivity across northwestern WI and based on the current trajectory still looks to clip our northeastern portions of the CWA. Mainly looking between 18z-23z timing of these light snow showers. May see some flurries linger into the evening, but overall less confident on seeing things linger into the evening. Given the dry air ahead of it and milder surfaces temps, mainly looking at a brief window for these quick snow showers. Might see brief drops in visibility (1-3 miles for less than an hour and briefly below 1 mi at times), but looking at just enough snow to wet the roads and maybe see a dusting on elevated surfaces such as bridges/overpasses.

Otherwise, high pressure will continue to build across the Upper Mississippi River Valley this evening and move across southern WI tonight. Given the subsidence, light winds, and mostly clear skies looking at temps to fall into the 20s overnight into early Saturday morning. High pressure will continue to march east- southeast through Saturday morning and more into the Ohio River Valley region by Saturday afternoon. As a result expect upper- level ridge to build over our neck of the woods with more south- southwesterly winds. The WAA regime will begin to bring in milder temps for Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, especially for inland southern WI.

The other concern for Saturday will be the increasing winds, milder temps, and deeper mixing resulting in lower dewpoints and relative humidity through the afternoon. While recent rainfall yesterday have aided in higher fuel moisture content, the increase winds and dry conditions may still be conducive for some elevated fire weather concerns, especially western portions of the area that will need to keep an eye on.

Wagner

LONG TERM

Issued 1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Will continue to see the warming trend Sunday through the start of next week as ridge axis flattens and then rebuilds over the region while a system develops over the central CONUS. Continue to see above normal temp trend for the start of next week. High confidence in see temps in the 60s and even beginning to see more hints of 70F temp Monday and Tuesday as mid-range models come into better agreement. Again the warmer temps will be inland while areas closer to Lake still looking to remain 5-15F cooler, especially with any onshore flow or lake breezes than may develop in this stronger temp gradient setup.

Still monitoring the pattern becoming more active Tuesday through midweek as an upper-level trough deepens and digs across the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest. While we continue to see varying solutions on the the track and strength of the associated surface feature for this system, general trends have the low tracking somewhere across WI and having our CWA either partial or fully in the warm sector depending on which model suite you look at. Nevertheless, still have higher confidence in increased PoP chances with this Tuesday-Wednesday system and thunderstorm chances. While still enough differences between models and being a couple days out for any specifics, there is still a potential to see some stronger storms with the Tuesday system given the upper-level dynamics aligning with low- level forcing and moisture.

Wednesday into Thursday is looking quieter as high pressure and cooler conditions fill in behind the aforementioned system. However, long range models continue to trend toward another active pattern toward the end of next week.

Wagner

AVIATION

Issued 704 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Scattered light snow showers and flurries should gradually dissipate by early this evening northeast of a line from the Wisconsin Dells to Milwaukee. The loss of daytime heating should bring this activity to a gradual end. At most, there may be a brief dusting of snowfall and visibility drops with any heavier snow showers, with the best chances toward the Sheboygan terminal. This should be rather isolated, with most of the activity being flurries.

Broken ceilings around 6000 to 7000 feet AGL should gradually scatter out this evening, with mostly clear skies overnight into Saturday morning expected. The gusty northwest winds should weaken this evening, with light winds expected overnight into early Saturday morning, as high pressure passes by to the southwest of the area.

Increasing south to southwest winds are expected Saturday. This should bring dry conditions, with some high clouds moving through at times. Winds may become more south to south southeast close to Lake Michigan, but may remain east of the Milwaukee and Kenosha terminals.

Wood

MARINE

Issued 1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Some lingering gusty northwesterly winds this afternoon, but will gradually weaken as the high pressure builds across the region and pass over the southern half of Lake Michigan overnight through Saturday morning. As the high moves more east- southeast Saturday may see southwesterly winds pick up Saturday afternoon. Conditions may approach small craft conditions for southeastern WI nearshores, but the more favorable condition look to be further north. Breezy south- southwesterly winds will prevail across Lake Michigan into the start of next week. A more active pattern is expected later Monday through Tuesday and could see winds shift with warm front later Monday and increased southerly winds for Tuesday. May also see small craft conditions and a few thunderstorms during this window as well.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.