textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM CDT this morning.

- Warmer temperatures Today and Saturday with highs in the 60s to near 70. Cooler by the immediate lakeshore Today due to a SSE lake breeze. No lake breeze Saturday.

- A clipper system brings rain chances (65-75%) Monday night into Tuesday night. Some thunderstorms will be possible (mainly Tue afternoon), but no strong to severe storms are expected.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Today through Saturday:

Areas of frost are still expected in the region early this morning, with nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies continuing for the next several hours. Some high altitude clouds will eventually make their approach towards dawn and slow the cooling trend.

Still expecting daytime highs in the 60s to around 70 Today and Saturday. Saturday should feature breezy W to NW winds, preventing the formation of a lake breeze and allowing the warmth to spread to the shoreline. For Today the weaker SW winds should allow a SSE lake breeze to form, likely only ventilating the nearest ~5 miles from the shoreline thru mid afternoon, then making further progress as the synoptic winds weaken late today. Expecting cooler temps (in the 50s) along the immediate shoreline due to this lake breeze.

Sheppard

LONG TERM

Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Saturday night through Thursday:

Northwest winds decelerate and sky cover decreases Saturday night, with some slight potential for frost development towards the northwest corner of the CWA (towards central WI, low temps in the mid 30s possible), likely too warm elsewhere. High temperatures around 60 degrees expected Sunday, with a redeveloping NW breeze. Some potential for a weak lake breeze to push against this synoptic flow and hold shoreline temperatures to the mid / low 50s, though our current forecast (best guess) spreads 60 degree highs to the shoreline. Dry weather looking likely as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Better potential for frost in the northwest half of the CWA (lows in the low to mid 30s) Sunday night, with calm winds and clear skies looking likely.

High pressure passes overhead Monday with temperatures holding steady (around 60) for inland areas and weak synoptic winds. As such, an easterly lake breeze will likely hold shoreline high temps to the low 50s. Dry weather continues.

ECMWF and GFS solutions remain in agreement on a clipper system passing the region on Tuesday, delivering rain chances (65-75%) late Monday night through Tuesday night. The rain will only last a fraction of this timeframe (keeping the time window wide to account for model dispersion) with the majority of model QPF falling in the daytime hours Tuesday for the time being. The fast moving nature of this system will limit it's residence time, yielding only 30% chances for reaching or exceeding 0.5 inches of rain (based off the latest GEFS guidance); this is a slight increase from the 20% chance that the GEFS provided on prior runs so we'll continue to monitor trends. Though thunderstorms will be possible at times (esp Tuesday afternoon), the fast approach / exit of the system prevents it from drawing gulf moisture and sufficient instability, hence we do not expect any strong to severe storms with this system.

Dry weather expected Wednesday as high pressure tracks through the region behind the departing clipper system. Ridging in the jet stream is expected to gradually build into the Midwestern CONUS through late next week, yielding a warming trend.

Sheppard

AVIATION

Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Dry weather and VFR through the overnight hours with nearly calm winds. Skies remain mostly clear, though high altitude clouds (over 20,000 ft) should build into the region towards dawn and through the rest of this morning. These same clouds would then erode into this afternoon.

Diurnal cumulus clouds (likely over 6,000 ft) may try to redevelop this afternoon, some virga is possible but rain chances are generally 15% or less for now (excluded from all TAFs).

SW winds building up to 10 kt sustained expected today, with a SSE lake breeze likely forming in the afternoon and pushing ~5 miles inland by mid afternoon, making further progress as the synoptic wind flow subsides later today. A light southwest breeze is then expected area wide into tonight, with continued VFR and dry weather.

Sheppard

MARINE

Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Weak high pressure of 30.0 inches slides further away across the southeastern CONUS overnight. Meanwhile, broad low pressure around 29.5 inches lingers over Hudson Bay. Light southwest winds expected over Lake Michigan overnight, turning due south and accelerating through Today. A cold front extending southwest of the low will sweep across the lake Saturday, with breezy southwest winds ahead of it and northwest winds arriving behind it.

High pressure around 30.3 inches tracks southeastward across Manitoba Canada Sunday, then the Great lakes region on Monday. Relatively light and variable winds are expected through this period.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Frost Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066- WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 8 AM Friday.

LM...None.