textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Gale Warning now in effect for Lake Michigan with gales ongoing through much of tonight. Moderate freezing spray is also expected.

- Light snow is expected on Tuesday, with around 0.5 to 1 inch, mainly toward east central WI. Another brief light snow event expected Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 300 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night:

High pressure will swing south of WI tonight allowing winds to weaken and clearing skies to some degree. However, a weak low will be swinging down from Alberta and as the high pushes out the weak low will swing through the western Great Lakes giving us a brief hit of snow. This system is fairly weak but there will be a weak shortwave as well as some low level WAA as a weak LLJ feature pushes through the region. Moisture does not look like an issue it just looks like the speed of the system and lighter QPF will lead to low totals around a 0.5-1.0 inches toward east central WI and less away from there. Rates will likely peak at 0.25 in/hr. Otherwise this system will enter late Tuesday morning from the northwest and exit the area west to east by the early evening.

Tuesday evening/night there may be additional chances for snow showers as another shortwave swings through though the moisture will be exiting the region and may allow us to stay dry.

Otherwise chilly tonight with apparent temperatures in the negative single digits likely across much of southern WI.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 300 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

Wednesday will feature another quick hitting afternoon system bringing some light snow. This is likely even lighter than Tuesday as the region lacks much in the way of forcing but broad, weak midlevel Fgen will be enough to bring some snow given the moisture content from 850-700mb. This will very quickly exit late in the afternoon/early Wed evening. Best chances(~60%) will be in southwestern portions of the state.

While models dry us out a bit more later this week and through most of the weekend as a band of high pressure becomes entrenched over southern WI, I am not sold on that solution. This is due to meridional flow aloft putting us in position for waves of shortwaves and with models indicative of moisture being sufficient we could easily see a few more scenarios like Tuesday and Wednesday with quick hitting bouts of snow. However, there does not appear to be any risk for a stronger system pushing through at least until early next week.

Monday shows the next chance for a stronger storm that could bring a little bit higher QPF/snow though uncertainty is high and the event still looks like nothing significant at this time. But this storm at least carries some better forcing support.

Otherwise chilly temperatures through the extended period with lows mostly into the single digits.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 300 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Winds will remain breezy through the rest of the afternoon/early evening with MVFR CIGS and VFR/MVFR VSBYS at times with blowing snow/light snow but overall impacts likely to be limited at this time. Winds will gradually weaken tonight becoming more modest Thursday. VFR CIGS return later this evening into the evening from west to east though we may see SCT 3500ft CIGS through tonight, especially further east. Into Tuesday afternoon as another quick hitting snow arrives bringing up to an inch with brief VSBY reduction as well as some MVFR CIGS for at least a period late Tuesday morning into the early evening before this pushes out.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 300 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Low pressure exits into eastern Quebec, storm force gusts have diminished to gale force. Gale Warning now in effect until 9z for the open waters and 3z for the nearshores as gales continue but gradually push out to the east. Moderate freezing spray is expected into Tuesday morning. Winds will remain northwest and will diminish below gale force Tuesday morning, but will remain brisk through the remainder of the week.

Next chance for gales comes Wednesday evening as high pressure around pivots into the region with low pressure to the east bringing stronger winds to the region, especially in the north half of the lake.

Various periods of Small Craft conditions are expected after this event at at various times over the next several days.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064- WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until noon Monday.

Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060- WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until noon Monday.

LM...Storm Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 6 AM Tuesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until midnight Tuesday.