textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures remaining 10-20+ degrees above normal through Wednesday.

- Widespread rain expected (~50-80+% chances) Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Low chances (10-30%) for precip linger into Wednesday night.

- Additional precipitation chances (~25-45%) Thursday into Friday. Both rain and snow are possible.

- Colder conditions are likely to return next weekend.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

The Rest of Tonight through Monday:

A weak shortwave will slide through tonight into early Sunday morning, with limited moisture and lift resulting in mainly scattered mid and high level clouds. There should be a fair amount of sunshine by late Sun morning and afternoon, as high pressure centered to the southwest moves through the region. Temps aloft look nearly identical Sunday afternoon as this last afternoon, so highs should be similar, well above normal into low to mid 50s. With prevailing light northwest winds, models are showing less of a chance at a lake breeze developing, so highs will probably be a bit warmer near the lake than early today.

Even milder conditions are likely on Monday as southerly low level flow develops behind the departing high and ahead of a an approaching trough and associated cold front. Latest models suggest the front will drop through the northern half of the forecast area through late afternoon and the south by mid- evening. The current frontal timing would still allow for well above temps across the forecast area, the warmest in the south where the front will arrive latest. Still looks like highs could approach or crack 60 in at least the south. Moisture looks limited as the front drops southward through the area, so kept the forecast dry.

DDV

LONG TERM

Issued 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

Cooler temps are likely during the day Tuesday on the back side of the cold front. Easterly winds across southern Wisconsin will help keep things cooler as well, particularly near the lake. The frontal boundary will then lift back into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, as strong low pressure moves from the Northern Plains into Wisconsin. Increasing moisture along with decent forcing ahead of the low will likely result in a round of rain Tue evening into early Wednesday morning. A rumble or two of thunder still looks possible given the expected surface low track passing by just to the northwest of the forecast area.

The remainder of Wednesday through the day Thursday is looking mainly dry between low pressure systems. Another low is then expected to push through the area Thursday night into Friday, bringing more precip chances to southern Wisconsin. The overall picture among models currently suggests the this will be a rain transitioning to snow setup, with the surface low tracking over or just to the south of the forecast area. There hasn't been great model run to run consistency with this system though, so plenty of time for the details to change. Dry weather and colder conditons are then expected to move in for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

DDV

AVIATION

Issued 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light and variable winds most places tonight will become northwest around 5 knots by mid-morning Sunday, returning to light and variable late afternoon and evening. There is a chance winds could turn onshore for a time near the lake mid to late afternoon. Clear skies are expected much of the time through Sun night, other than a few passing mid and high level clouds at times.

DDV

MARINE

Issued 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light southerly winds are expected tonight as weak low pressure of 29.9 inches approaches from the northwest, moving through northern Lake Michigan early Sunday. Light northwest to north winds will then develop Sunday behind the low and associated weak front. Southerly winds will develop again Sunday night into Monday ahead of another approaching low and front, with the low of 29.7 inches moving through the northern lake during the day Monday. Northerly winds Monday night behind the front will become easterly Tuesday morning ahead of the next approaching low pressure system.

East to southeast winds will increase later Tuesday into Tuesday night as the stronger low draws near, with winds to around 30 knots possible. A few gales could be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, depending on the strength of the low, though the warmer airmass over the chilly lake waters will limit mixing down of higher gusts. The best chance for any gales will be across northern portions of the lake. There is increasing confidence that a Small Craft Advisory will eventually be needed for the nearshore waters from Tuesday evening through the day Wednesday, given the elevated onshore winds and building waves.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.