textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers are likely today over far eastern WI with 1-3 inches of snow accumulation forecast.

- Very light snow accumulations may also occur later Sunday into Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

Issued 439 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Today through Saturday night:

Nely 1000-850 mb flow will continue to develop this morning as the north to south diabatic heating pressure trough over the center of the lake shifts wwd. This will continue into the early afternoon as arctic high pressure builds into the ern Dakotas and MN on the back side of the swd passing west to east upper trough over the region. TMKE terminal doppler is showing mesolows all along the north to south band of lake effect snow showers that are moving sw. The showers will move onshore after sunrise but weaken to some degree as the nely flow increases and they get away from the moisture source of the lake. Additional LES bands will develop but also remain transient with one final band shifting south from Sheboygan County early in the afternoon to Kenosha by late afternoon. 1-3 inches of snow accum is forecast with locally more, but overall the arctic air mass and transient nature of the snow bands will limit the potential for heavier totals.

For tnt, arctic high pressure will shift swd from the nrn Great Plains to the central Great Plains, but farther ewd over the wrn Great Lakes, low to mid level warm advection will arrive from the north. Fcst soundings do saturate over ern WI but with little to no lift and qpf. The warming actually leads to a deep dendrite zone during this time as well. This looks to be a potential high PoP and low QPF scenario for ern WI. Increased PoPs to 40-50% over far ern WI with some potential for LES to aid in the very light snow development.

For late Sat-Sat nt, a sfc ridge extending from the arctic high over the central and srn Great Plains will shift across srn WI. High temps will warm into the lower 20s on Sat, but good radiational cooling conditions will drop temps back down into the single digits for Sat nt.

Gehring

LONG TERM

Issued 439 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

Nwly flow aloft with embedded shortwave troughs will prevail for this period. A shortwave trough will slowly move across srn WI Sun afternoon and night, while its sfc trough weakens with time. 40-50% chances for light snow are forecast Sun nt but higher chances may occur as we approach.

The ECMWF Ens mean and GEFS MSLP differ some for the remainder of the week but overall a weak trough of low pressure will track from the central USA to the east coast, followed by low pressure of some degree approaching from Canada. 20-40% chances for light snow are forecast for Tue-Wed AM.

Gehring

AVIATION

Issued 439 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Areas of MVFR Cigs will prevail today and tonight, more prevalent over far ern WI where lake effect snow will be occurring. Vsbys will range from 1-3SM with the snow but could very briefly drop below 1SM.

Gehring

MARINE

Issued 439 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Northeast winds will develop early this morning and increase through the day. Lake effect snow showers will prevail mainly over the west half of the lake. Strong high pressure of 30.8 inches over Manitoba early this morning will then track south through the northern and central Great Plains through tonight. This will maintain brisk north winds over Lake Michigan through Saturday with a period of moderate freezing spray as well. A ridge of high pressure will then shift across the lake Saturday night with light and variable winds expected. Modest southwest winds will develop for Sunday into Sunday night as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The trough will then pass and shift the winds to northwesterly for Monday.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 3 PM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM Friday to 9 PM Saturday.