textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder temps mainly in the 30s with a couple days in the 40s are forecast for the work week. Mostly dry conditions are forecast.

- Increased chance (20-30%) for light freezing rain Monday afternoon - Next chances for precipitation (20-40%) Thursday into Thursday night.

UPDATE

Issued 612 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

The only update for the short term is to comment on how long this stratus layer will stick around across southern WI tonight. Southeasterly flow in the low levels is keeping the shallow moisture trapped in this layer. As we warm advect overnight, the back edge should see some clearing. This includes Madison, but timing is still uncertain. Areas toward east central WI will likely remain overcast through mid Monday morning. With the clouds hanging on longer than previously anticipated, we will probably need to bump the min temps up a little.

Cronce

SHORT TERM

Issued 130 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Quiet conditions expected today with weak ridging aloft dominating into Monday with surface high pressure hanging on across the region into Monday morning. Monday afternoon into the evening there is some evidence of an upper level weak shortwave feature with moisture that could yield a bit of precip. This will be associated with a surface low to the north as well that will track a front through later. However the issue with this potential is that despite the moisture aloft there is very limited moisture in the low to mid levels. It remains possible that enough midlevel moisture in the northern part of the CWA may remain present to provide a brief shot of precip Monday afternoon and if the midlevels moisten up that could easily provide an area of better forcing with strong WAA. In addition CAMs are seemingly supportive of some mild potential as well. Attention then turns to the precip type as strong midlevel WAA will melt any snow falling through and temperatures at the surface could be enough to cause freezing rain/drizzle concerns. Any precip would be mostly light but a glaze of ice cannot be ruled out if we manage to get precip.

The front will push through Monday night with higher pressure filling in quickly behind it with quiet conditions returning.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 130 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

The extended period looks fairly quiet overall. An upper low will swing through the northern Great Lakes region Tuesday but dry conditions aloft will prevent much in the way of precip from developing along its band of PVA. Ridging begins to return Wednesday as surface high pressure settles in overhead. Thursday into Thursday night will feature the next best chance for precip as some upper level shortwave activity may swing through with a surface low pushing through the central US that may sideswipe western parts of the CWA with some precip, especially in areas with some midlevel WAA.

Beyond Thursday, while some shortwave activity may persist in the region the moisture will be gradually dissipating over the region and may end up keeping us dry especially with the surface high pressure hanging on across southern WI through the weekend. However models are suggestive of moisture it will become about whether there will be enough forcing within the bands of moisture to produce some precip.

Kuroski

AVIATION

Issued 612 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Stratus will remain in place over east central WI through mid Monday morning. The western edge of the shallow cloud layer is currently just west of Madison, and is expected to clear Madison during the overnight hours, although timing is uncertain. Ceiling heights are VFR for south central WI, but MVFR around 1800 ft in eastern WI.

Expect VFR conditions to return Monday morning with a weak system possibly bringing some ice to central WI Monday afternoon. While light this may cause some minor impacts. Otherwise expect light to modest southerly winds across southern WI ahead of the front coming through Monday evening.

Cronce/Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 130 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

High pressure around 30.5 inches continues to slide eastward through the eastern Great Lakes tonight, leading to southeast winds turning back more southerly. The onshore winds may bring wave heights up to 5 feet tonight in ice free areas in the Sheboygan area and thus a Small Craft Advisory remains in place. Winds will become south to southwest Monday as low pressure around 29.7 inches moves across Ontario. Southwest winds remain through Monday night as high pressure around 30.5 inches builds into the northern Plains, before a trailing cold front from the Ontario low pushes across the lake Tuesday morning. Modest west to northwest winds are expected behind the front and will persist into the middle of the week.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...10 PM Sunday to 9 AM Monday.