textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances (20 to 50%) for light snow across the region Thursday morning, with the highest chances over east-central WI.

- Light drizzle or freezing drizzle and fog possible Thursday afternoon / night.

- Chances for snow (central and southeastern WI, 20 to 50 percent chance) and freezing drizzle (south central and southwestern Wisconsin, 20 to 40 percent chance) late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Snow totals from both rounds of snow less than or equal to 1 inch expected. A thin glaze of ice is also possible.

- Milder end to the week with highs in the 30s Thursday and Friday, rapidly dropping temperatures Friday evening.

- Additional chances for snow (20 to 40 percent) Saturday night.

- Above average temperatures return for the early portions of next week.

UPDATE

Issued 600 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Lake effect clouds have encroached into far southeastern WI (Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha counties) early this morning, with occasional reports of flurries received from the MKE airport. These clouds and flurries should gradually retreat southeastward through the course of this morning.

Inland, the thin high-altitude cloud cover has done little to inhibit radiational cooling overnight, hence our temperature forecast for early this morning is multiple degrees colder. On the bright side, this same lack of cloud cover should allow temperatures to rebound into the 20s area-wide today, with plenty of sunshine.

No major changes to the rest of the forecast.

Sheppard

SHORT TERM

Issued 1200 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Today through Thursday:

Some lake effect clouds may clip the lakeshore areas overnight into Wednesday morning at times. The main lake effect snow band should remain just to the southeast of the Kenosha area later tonight into Wednesday morning, though some flurries may occur from Milwaukee southward. Will continue to watch the far southeast areas during this period, just in case the western edge of this band tries to clip those areas.

Otherwise, some middle to high clouds should continue to move east southeast through the area overnight into early Wednesday morning. Skies should then clear out for the rest of the day. The main area of high pressure should move shift southward into Iowa overnight into Wednesday.

Lows overnight will be tricky with the middle to high clouds moving through, though some areas have already dipped to near forecast lows. The clouds may slow the cooling somewhat, though think that some areas may continue to drop overnight. Thus, lows may need further adjustment downward a few degrees. Highs Wednesday should rise into the middle 20s for most areas.

Warm air advection will develop Wednesday night with southwest winds, with a 500 mb shortwave trough shifting southeast through the area Thursday morning. Forecast soundings are showing a deepening moisture profile Thursday morning as the shortwave trough shifts through, with the dendrite snow growth zone tapped for a few hours. The better upward vertical motion and moisture is toward the northeast parts of the area. Thus, a period of light snow may occur Thursday morning and kept 20 to 40 percent chances going in the forecast. Accumulations should be under mostly under one half inch, highest toward Sheboygan.

The forecast soundings are showing a loss of ice crystals in the afternoon, with the low levels remaining moist. The cold front moving through during the afternoon may help bring patchy light freezing drizzle, if the ice crystals in the air column are lost. At this time, kept mention out of the forecast for the afternoon, but will be something to watch for. The warm air advection should help temperatures rise into the lower to middle 30s Thursday, before the front moves through.

Wood

LONG TERM

Issued 1200 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Thursday night through Wednesday:

Patchy fog and freezing drizzle potential (10-20% chances) linger into Thursday night in central Wisconsin, with lows in the upper 20s and southwesterly winds bringing in plenty of low level moisture. A secondary shortwave propagating southward from the northern Canadian Prairies looks to phase with the more dominant surface low over the Hudson Bay, bringing several impulses of upper level lift to central and southern Wisconsin early Friday morning onward.

In central to southeastern Wisconsin, lift and moisture extends to the dendritic growth zone (DGZ), bringing an additional band of snowfall (40-50% chances). However, in south-central to southwestern Wisconsin, moisture looks to be focused in the lower levels of the atmosphere, bringing better chances for supercooled liquid water and a freezing drizzle/freezing rain set up (20-40% chances). With synoptic lift farther south expected to be weaker, favor a drizzle potential, but confidence is not high at this time due to variability in modeling for exact placement of shortwave driven lift and the tendency of NAM/GFS to oversaturate the boundary layer. In addition, stiff southeasterly winds will bring in unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid-30s, which would lead to more refreeze issues than pure icing. Will bear watching over the next few model runs as confidence increases in temperatures and moisture variables.

A strong cold front will push through Friday afternoon, bringing an end to any lingering drizzle and likely concluding additional snowfall. However, convective roll snowfall looks to be possible (NAM as the biggest proponent) through Friday behind the frontal passage. Expecting minimal additional snow accumulations during this time frame, but rapidly cooling temperatures could lead to icing on untreated roads and surfaces into the Friday evening commute.

Gusty northwest winds bring in lows in the single digits to low teens Friday night, with any lingering snow showers tapering off into Friday evening as dry air and high pressure move in. High pressure is expected to be progressive, however, with an additional shortwave propagating southeastward into the Great Lakes and bringing in warming temperatures Saturday (highs in the upper 20s to near freezing), then another round of snow Saturday night (20-40% chances).

After the passage of this shortwave, ridging begins to build back in across the central and southern Plains, nudging up into the western Great Lakes early next week. This will lead to above average temperatures in the upper 30s during the day each day Sunday through Tuesday. As ridging builds, expecting low pressure to develop in the lee of the central Rockies Tuesday, ejecting northeastward on Wednesday and bringing the next chances for precipitation to southern Wisconsin.

MH

AVIATION

Issued 600 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Lake effect MVFR cloud ceilings have encroached into far southeastern Wisconsin this morning (KMKE, KRAC, KENW, KBUU) and will likely linger there through mid morning before retreating southeastward over Lake Michigan. While these clouds are overhead, some flurries will be possible (as seen in recent KMKE METAR reports, with light snow and ~9SM visibility reported). Dry weather and VFR conditions today and tonight. High altitude cloud ceilings build into the region late tonight, thickening and lowering in altitude. Nearly calm winds.

A round of light snow is expected to slide across central, east-central, and southeastern Wisconsin between 6 AM and noon Thursday, leading to drops in visibility and light (less than 1 inch) accumulations. Cloud ceilings will gradually decline through this time period, and could potentially reach IFR to LIFR levels into Thursday afternoon after the snow stops (due to a southwesterly breeze advecting warm / moist air over the snow-covered and frozen ground). Some patchy freezing drizzle may occur Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as well.

Sheppard

MARINE

Issued 1200 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure around 30.4 inches over far western Wisconsin will slide southward into Iowa overnight into Wednesday. Mainly light winds are expected. Lake effect snow showers are expected over the southern half of the open waters overnight through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will trend west southwesterly Wednesday night into Thursday, as low pressure around 29.5 inches moves from the Canadian Great Plains to western Hudson Bay. Snow is possible during the day on Thursday, ahead of the developing low.

Low pressure will deepen further to near 29.3 inches over central Hudson Bay Thursday night, ultimately progressing into northern Quebec during the day on Friday. The low will pull a cold front across the open waters in the process, resulting in a gusty northwest wind shift early Friday morning.

A period of northwesterly gales remains possible during the afternoon and evening hours Friday, with trends being monitored for potential headlines in coming forecasts. Areas of snow showers will continue along and ahead of the passing front Thursday night into early Friday morning. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for Friday into Saturday for the nearshore waters for gusty winds.

Elevated wave heights will combine with Arctic air settling in behind the cold front to support areas of moderate freezing spray Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Some heavy freezing spray is possible, with the need for possible headlines being evaluated in coming forecasts.

Winds will briefly taper Saturday afternoon, as high pressure around 30.4 inches crosses Lake Michigan, prior to increasing once more Saturday night, as the feature moves east.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.