textproduct: Milwaukee/Sullivan

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief period of snow showers possible (20%) across south central and east central Wisconsin this morning. Slick spots and brief reductions in visibilities to 1 SM due to falling snow and blow/drifting are possible.

- Cold wind chills below zero will prevail through much of the week but remain above advisory criteria.

SHORT TERM

Issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Today and Tonight:

Areas of snow showers and flurries are moving across west central Wisconsin early this morning. These scattered snow showers and flurries will move east south east into south central and east central Wisconsin from now through roughly 6 AM this morning. These showers are primarily right along the leading edge of a cold front that is moving across the state. There is a narrow area along the front where temperatures are quickly dropping and hitting the dewpoint temps which is causing saturation to the sfc. Dewpoint depressions out ahead of the front are not super large (3 to 8 degrees) so this isnt an incredibly powerful push of CAA, but its enough to get the moisture we need for snow. With the forcing of the LLJ and frontogenesis along the front, this system is making the most out of the limited moisture it has. As the front moves east moisture slowly falls so its possible that these showers weaken, but in the case that they don't. Areas where we are getting 30Dbz radar returns up stream have quick drops in visibilities, breezy winds and very fine powdery snowfall. Thankfully these pockets are very small, but worthy of caution if you find yourself out on the road early this morning. For areas across east central Wisconsin, these showers could briefly impact your commute since it will be near 6 AM. Accumulations will be very light and with the breezy winds will be hard to measure. Expect any where from a dusting to maybe a couple tenths of an inch if you find yourself lucky enough to be under a small pocket of higher Dbz.

Behind the front, light flurries may linger into the early afternoon as any left over moisture is squeezed out of the cloud deck before clearing. There is only a 10% chance for these flurries as it will be dependent on weak upper level lift. Not really expecting any impacts or accumulations from this. Dry weather is expected through the rest of the evening and through Wednesday as high pressure moves into the Plains and western Great Lakes Region. The cyclonic flow remains aloft so some shortwaves around 500 mb and 850 mb will bring some clouds back to the state late tonight into Wednesday, but again things will be dry. Highs today and Wednesday will be in the upper single digits to low teens. Overnight lows will be in around zero to -7 degrees.

Patterson

LONG TERM

Issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Thursday through Monday:

The upper level cyclonic flow with troughs and shortwaves rotating around southern Canada and the New England states will remain through the work week. Despite the chances for some PVA aloft, largely dry weather will persist through Saturday across southern Wisconsin. There will be some low chance POPs (10-20% or less) that occasionally move inland off lake Michigan Thursday through Saturday as northwest to north winds set up across Lake Michigan. Not anticipating any impactful lake effect snow (or really much of anything), but these POPs are due to the few models that occasionally have northeast winds and larger resolutions of the long range models. So if your hoping for more snow, I wouldn't put to much faith in these chances through Saturday.

Heading into Sunday and Monday, guidance suggest a shortwave trough digging down from Ontario through the western Great Lakes Region. There is quiet a bit of uncertainty here between timing, location and strength of the shortwave. Cluster analysis further supports this uncertainty with the two major EOFs have a mono and dipole distribution. While are likely to be warmer in the low to mid 20s, snow remains the primary precip type for wherever this system tracks. Kept the average among model guidance for POPs which is a low 20% or less.

Only other item worth mentioning for the extended will be the very slow climb out of the single digits into the 20s for the weekend. Highs in the teens and lows near or below zero will persist through Friday. Saturday will bring our first chance for highs to reach the 20s and overnight lows to be above zero across southern Wisconsin. Wind chills will remain below freezing through the work week over night, but wind chills remain above and cold headline criteria.

Patterson

AVIATION

Issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period. The chances for MVFR conditions will be early this morning with incoming snow showers and flurries. Ceilings will be around 2 to 3 kft with the incoming showers. Visibilities will drop to 3-5 SM with a very small chance for IFR visibilites of 1-2 SM under the heaviest showers. Drops of 1-2 SM should have a short duration. These showers will move east south east through the area with terminals along and north of Interstate 94 most likely to be impacted. This includes MSN and MKE. These showers will move through from now through roughly 6 AM. By late morning/early afternoon snow showers and flurries will end and dry weather will remain. Conditions will return to VFR as skies slowly clear. Mid to high level clouds return at the end of the TAF period.

Winds will shift from southwest to northwest as these showers move through. Northwest wind gust of 30 to 35 kts will be possible as the snow showers move through. Breezy northwest winds remain through this afternoon. Winds will then weaken and turn westerly by tonight.

Patterson

MARINE

Issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Elevated waves and cold temperatures will support moderate to heavy freezing spray through Tuesday afternoon. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect until 6 PM CST today. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the near shore waters through 6 PM CST today for gusty northwest winds and building waves.

A 29.6 inch trough of low pressure is crossing Lake Superior this morning heading toward Quebec. Winds are turning to northwesterly this morning as a cold front passes over Lake Michigan. Southwest to west winds are out ahead of the front for the southern half of the lake. An occasional gale force gust will be possible through 4 AM for southern half.

Diminishing winds will trend west-northwesterly this afternoon and night as 30.4 inch high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. Winds will gradually taper Wednesday through Thursday as said area of high pressure moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Strong high pressure around 30.9 inches will set up over the Northern Plains on Friday and expand across the Upper Great Lakes at 30.7 inches over the weekend.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 6 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Tuesday.