textproduct: Newport/Morehead City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue through tomorrow while a weak trough develops off the NC coast. High pressure then re-centers off the coast by Tuesday with well above normal conditions returning through late week. A weak front with limited moisture will move through the area late Thursday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 7 PM Sunday...No major changes to the forecast with this update.
Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Sun...Pleasant conditions persist tonight with high pressure to the north and a coastal trough just offshore. Dry airmass and good radiational cooling conditions inland will promote rapid cooling this evening, with lows expected into the mid 40s across the coastal plain, with 50s to near 60 OBX with cont onshore nerly flow. Ocnl cirrus will stream through the area, with some low level stratus off the ocean cont to plague the nrn OBX zones.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
As of 3 PM Sun...Aforementioned weak coastal trough will remain offshore through the day, though some inc in low stratus with bases 3-4k ft through the day will move into the mainland. At the same time, cirrus will invade ENC from the west, with filtered sunshine expected. For this reason, have trended down a degree or three from where vals were. Still expecting highs to be a bit above climo, with low/mid 70s for most locales, coolest OBX zones.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 AM Sunday...Upper ridging will prevail over the East Coast Monday and Tuesday with sfc high pressure drifting SE off the New England coast while continuing to ridge into the area. Could see a few light showers along the coast Monday night as a coastal trough pushes onshore but otherwise expect dry conditions and warming temps through Wednesday.
The upper ridge flattens Wednesday into Thursday as a dampening shortwave trough pushes across the Midwest into New England with the attendant cold front pushing south across the region Thursday night. Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible as SW flow aloft advects Gulf moisture toward the region, although most guidance keeps deepest moisture south of the area with only around a quarter inch QPF or less across ENC. A few showers may continue into Thursday night as the cold front pushes south across the area. Continued very warm with temps around 8-13 degrees above normal.
High pressure builds back into the area Friday into Saturday with dry conditions prevailing and somewhat cooler temps, though still remaining several degrees above normal. Another system lifts across the Midwest into the Great Lakes late in the weekend into early next week but guidance differs with timing, strength and available moisture.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/... As of 7 PM Sun...VFR conditions likely through the TAF period, with low end chances of patchy, shallow MVFR fog developing west of hwy 17. Monday 2-3kft cloud cover may develop near the coast as strato- cu streams in from offshore with a weak coastal trough developing but only a sct deck at best expected for the terminals. Otherwise, inc cirrus with bases above 20k ft expected to inc in coverage during the day Mon. Light n to nerly flow persisting overnight into Mon.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 330 AM Sunday...Predominantly VFR through the long term save for early morning fog/stratus potential. High pressure shifts offshore through midweek with a cold front approaching from the north Wednesday night into Thursday and could see isolated to widely scattered showers bringing brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. High pressure builds back into the area late in the week.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Mon/... As of 3 PM Sun...Small craft conditions will continue for the srn/ctrl coastal waters and Pamlico Sound through this evening. By midnight, gradient decreases enough to pull Pamlico out of the SCA suite. Seas will be in the 5-7 ft through the day and SCA's will cont south of Oregon Inlet.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 345 AM Sunday...High pressure slides off the New England coast early to mid week allowing a coastal trough to push onshore. NE winds around 15-20 kt Monday morning veers to SE Wednesday afternoon and evening as the coastal trough moves onshore, then diminishes to around 10-15 kt Tuesday. Winds continue to veer to Sly less than 15 kt Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a cold front. The front pushes through Thursday night with high pressure building in from the north bringing N to NE winds across the waters.
Seas briefly subsides to 3-5 ft Monday afternoon but builds back to 4-7 ft Monday night, then gradually subsides to 3-5 ft Tuesday night and Wednesday. Seas will generally be around 2-4 ft Thursday into Friday with up to 5 ft possible across the outer waters invof the Gulf Stream.
CLIMATE
Record High temps for 11/06 (Wednesday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 82/2022 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1959 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/2018 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2003 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/2003 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 83/1994 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
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