textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A frontal system will continue to approach the area, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening. The front will stall over the area into Thursday. High pressure builds in from the west through the holiday weekend with the frontal boundary stalling off the Southeast coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 2100 Wednesday...

Key messages: -Flooding rain and severe potential has drastically decreased for the rest of the period. -More isolated to widely scattered showers and tstorms remain possible for next few hours, becoming confined to coast and then offshore in early morning hours as front stalls nearby.

Latest analysis shows broad troughing over the eastern CONUS with a shortwave trough moving through the Carolinas and Mid- Atlantic. At the surface, slow moving frontal boundary is draped through the Delmarva and back through central NC, slowly approaching the I95 corridor. A deep plume of Gulf moisture, with PWATs 2-2.3" continue to stream into the region. Sct shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through the first part of tonight, especially along the front as it trudges across the forecast area, but coverage of convective activity has diminished quickly with lack of heating this evening as expected. As rain comes to an end, low stratus and potentially patchy fog is likely to develop behind the frontal boundary. Highest odds of this are along and west of I-95, but if the front moves faster, patchy fog threat may spread further east towards Hwy 17. Lows in the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/

As of 240 PM Wed...Front will stall over the area Thursday, while broad troughing continues aloft gradually pushing off the coast late. Precip coverage is expected to be less with lesser forcing and also drier air. However, with ample moisture still in place in the low and mid levels (PWATs around 1.75"), additional rounds of moderate rainfall possible from stronger and/or training cells, with best chances east of Hwy 17 (near the stalled front). Temps near climo, with highs in the upper 80 to 90 deg inland and mid/upper 80s for the beaches.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1:30 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical summertime pattern with sea breeze convection

Aloft, a broad trough will move offshore late week with ridging pushing in behind it. At the surface, high pressure will build in across the eastern US late week through the weekend.

Once this boundary finally gets on its way late Thursday, a mid- level shortwave rounding the base of a closed low over southern Quebec will push a weak reinforcing cold front south into our CWA early Friday. This feature doesn't look to bring much more than a wind shift to the north with the focus of afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances being along the sea breeze. The weekend will host our typical summertime pattern with daily seabreeze convection and highs around 90. A low may develop near the Gulf Stream waters along the remnants of the stalled front this weekend. Guidance differs on where this low may meander, but its proximity to ENC will introduce higher PoPs on Monday.

Speaking of this same stalled front, ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to come into better agreement on tropical development farther south late this week/weekend. NHC has highlighted the eastern Gulf, Florida, and the waters off the southeast US coast for low pressure development with a 40% chance of formation.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 1930 Wednesday...Mix of VFR for coastal terminals and SubVFR inland with widespread showers and thunderstorms beginning to wane, but will linger into the first half of tonight. Have prevailing MVFR CIGs for inland terminals but have included tempo IFR for a few hours. Reliable guidance continues to be aggressive in depicting a post- frontal low stratus deck developing across eastern NC as front stalls over the area overnight. Given light winds at the surface, some fog is also possible. Most likely terminals to see these restrictions are PGV-ISO, mainly after 06z...with potential for IFR at all terminals through 12z. VFR likely to return Thursday, with sct diurnal convection, best chances at EWN and OAJ.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 245 PM Wed...Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through the rest of the period, bringing periods of sub- VFR.

MARINE

SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 2115 Wednesday...

Key Messages

- SCAs have been allowed to expire as scheduled.

Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt gusting 15-23 kt with seas 3-5 ft. SW winds will gradually ease late this afternoon and this evening as front approaches. The front will stall over portions of the waters Thursday, with winds veering, becoming more variable 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Offshore showers and tstorms possible all day Thurs with the front losing momentum and stalling nearby.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Winds 10-15 kt will veer to the northeast by Friday morning and remain status quo until Saturday afternoon when they become more easterly. Winds will continue to veer to the southeast on Sunday. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft through the period (3-5 ft south of Cape Lookout through Thursday evening).

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.