textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Started stepping down on marine hazards as winds and seas improve from north to south.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through at least mid-week.

2) Unsettled weather may develop this weekend and early next week with at least a modest chance of showers and thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3).

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Tuesday we will reach low RH's 20-25% inland, but winds should remain light with high pressure overhead. Deep mixing in the afternoon Wednesday allows for relative humidities 20- 30% and wind gusts around or above 20 mph. Thursday and Friday also have low RH's, but winds gusts are currently forecast to be below 20 mph.

A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Late in the week, the upper level pattern is forecast to change from northerly flow aloft to more of a zonal flow aloft regime. Increasing moisture and instability within this pattern, plus easterly-progressing shortwaves embedded within the zonal flow, may support a modest increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially Saturday-Monday. Guidance differs quite a bit on the coverage and amount of precipitation each day during that time, but the main message at this point is that the potential exits for a somewhat wetter pattern to develop. For reference, the latest 6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center gives all of ENC a 40-50% chance of seeing above normal precipitation. It should be noted that not all guidance agrees on the wetter pattern, but it is something we'll be watching in the coming days, as precipitation is very much needed around the region. If Saturday remains dry, there will be potential for near record high temperatures in a warm SW flow regime.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure will build into the area today, and then shift offshore tomorrow, which will bring light winds, mostly clear skies, and VFR conditions to the area.

Outlook: Mostly dry and VFR conditions are likely to continue through the rest of the week. The next chance for rain, and sub-VFR conditions, could begin as early as Saturday night.

MARINE

Cold front has moved offshore yesterday evening. NE winds behind the front are stepping down from north to south, at 10-209 knots north of Cape Hatteras, but still reaching 25 knots south of Cape Hatteras. Winds should continue to ease over the next 3-6 hours as high builds into the region from the north. Over the coastal waters, seas have build to 3-5ft, increasing to 5-8 ft for gulf stream waters. Winds and seas are expected to lessen down through the morning with the high building in. SCA has been allowed to drop north of Oregon Inlet, with Pamlico Sound and remaining coastal waters soon to follow this morning. The sub-SCA conditions for the remainder of today and early Wednesday will be short- lived as yet another cold front approaches the area on Wednesday PM with strong SW winds ahead of it.

Outlook: Wednesday will bring building SW winds and seas both ahead of a front that is expected to stall near the NC/VA border, with increased confidence of >25kt wind gusts. Marine headlines will likely be needed for some of the inner and coastal waters with this front. A few thunderstorms may accompany the front as well, but should be confined to coastal waters. Looking further out, a more unsettled weather pattern may develop by the weekend with a risk of scattered thunderstorms and elevated winds and seas.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ156- 158.