textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms inland this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Marginal risk for strong to severe storms inland this evening. Better coverage of showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening with frontal passage. Dry again for Wed into Thu. Next precip chance is Fri.

3) Becoming hot and humid again this week with highs in the 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pres shifts offshore today while another shortwave swings ewrd acrs the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region. This will drag a cold front into the Southeast, but as is typical this time of year, the front gets hung up or at least slows down before reaching ENC. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms today, best chances along the coast this morning then transitioning inland this afternoon with the seabreeze. Breezier today as thermal gradient inc in addition to the cold front moving into the Piedmont. Some models indicate some weakening MCS activity arriving into interior ENC this evening, but this activity running into dry air should limit chances to no higher than 30-50% and mainly for our nwrn FA. Best chance for a storm would be from around 8pm to 2am. Any storms that enter our nwrn counties could be on the stronger side as some renegade instability and shear of 20+ kt will be found here, with strong wind gusts the main threat.

The aforementioned stalled front will then get kicked through ENC as a backdoor cold front Tue evening as stronger shortwave exits the Mid Atlantic coast. Have cont to fcst lower than NBM pops, as convective coverage will be more sct in nature. Have retained the likely pops from previous forecast to the nern zones, where best convergence and forcing will be for more widespread thundershowers. Svr threat still looks low as shear is lacking. Further inland, the chances decrease to 30-40% with lack of appreciable forcing and a bit more dry air in place. Front will sweep offshore Tue evening, taking any precip with it. Dry conditions return for Wed into Thu with high pres dominating. Next chance of showers and storms on Friday as next shortwave swings through the sern CONUS.

KEY MESSAGE 2...With the return swrly flow, hot and humid conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices, though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week. Brief break from the heat expected on Wed behind the fropa, when afternoon highs only in the low 80s OBX zones to upper 80s inland with lowered RH's as well. Heating back up Thu into Fri as return swrly flow returns.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Patchy fog and stratus has developed across western portions of the area early this morning, impacting all four terminals. VFR expected to return shortly after 12z. SSW winds inc further this afternoon as tight thermal gradient develops along with inland trough ahead of cold front. Gusts upwards of 20 kt by afternoon. May be a isolated shower or storm along the inland seabreeze this afternoon. Best chances for showers and storms still look like this evening, mainly at ISO and PGV.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): Front will sweep through Tue afternoon and evening, with another shot for sct afternoon showers and storms, esp along the eastern terminals. Winds turn nrly to nerly behind the front Tue evening with any precip threat ending. Mostly dry for Wed and Thu with high pres rebuilding. Next precip chance on Fri with another system approaching.

MARINE

Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas around 2 ft. High pressure strengthens offshore along with inland trough combined with approaching cold front, will lead to increasing winds through the day. SSW winds will increase to 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt late this afternoon and evening, peaking between 8pm and 3am. Still looks too marginal for SCA at this time. Moderate to gusty SW winds 10-20 kt will continue into Tue ahead of the approaching front with seas building to 3-5 ft.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): The front will move through the waters Tue night with flow becoming N-NE 5-15 kt behind it. Return swrly winds for Thu into Fri though looks to remain below SCA conditions.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.