textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Nor'easter expected to develop of of the NC coast this weekend. Confidence is increasing regarding track and intensity as well as minor to moderate coastal impacts with vulnerable areas seeing the potential for more significant impacts. Storm Watches now in effect for outer marine zones.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold front moves through early Saturday, with a low forming and bringing a potential nor'easter near the coast through the weekend and into next week.

2) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds.

Marine: Gale Warnings in effect with Storm Watches for outer marine zones. Prolonged period of strong winds and high seas as nor'easter lingers offshore for several days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Forecast is beginning to come into much greater certainty with this run of the forecast models, especially in regards to a cold front moving through eastern NC on Saturday and then continuing offshore. There is now HIGH confidence that a nor'easter will form offshore and bring impacts to eastern NC in the form of strong winds, high waves, and coastal flooding as well as extremely dangerous marine conditions through the weekend.

Uncertainty remains on the back end of the forecast. Exactly how long it lingers offshore and its eventual route upon exit still have low confidence at this time. What we do know is that the alternate scenario that excluded the formation of the low is now gone and as a result the expected values for winds and seas has increased.

As far as the cold front is concerned that will be the catalyst for the eventual system, expect winds to shift to northeasterly early Saturday morning brining rain chances to the area for much of the day on Saturday. While amounts are expected to be extreme, a widespread half of an inch to an inch of rain throughout the day is likely.

Winds will pick up throughout the day with 25-30 mph gusts common. Values will increase from west to east with areas near the coast experiencing much higher values. A wind advisory in effect for Western Carteret, Mainland Dare and Mainland Hyde Counties from 18z Saturday through 00z Tuesday. For the Core and Outer Banks as well as Downeast Carteret County, a high wind watch is in effect from 00z Sunday through 6z on Monday.

2-4 foot above ground level coastal flooding will be possible with minor to moderate impacts throughout the Outer Banks, Core Banks and Downeast Carteret County. Impacts are expected to both sound and oceanside locales with potentially significant impacts to vulnerable areas on the ocean side. A high surf advisory is in effect for the Outer Banks with breaking waves of generally 8-12 feet expected in the surf zone. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is also expected through much of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After record breaking heat the last several days, temperatures are expected to cool significantly. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range with cooler values inland and warmer temperatures near the coast. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s inland just after the frontal passage to the low 50s by the end of the week with coastal locations in the upper 40s to low 50s early in the forecast period to low 50s to low 60s by the end of next week. Winds will remain breezy, particularly in the afternoons depending upon the eventual track of the offshore nor'easter.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours. A cold front will move through the area brining a shift to north or NNWly winds to all TAFs sites overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. Expect conditions to remain VFR initially but then begin to dive through MVFR into IFR levels as ceilings lower with the approaching cold front. After sunrise on Saturday expect rain to begin from northwest to southeast and winds to begin gusting to 20-25 kts at all TAF sites with some stronger gusts expected at KMRH closer to the coast.

Outlook (Sat night through Mon): Clearing skies Sat night but winds and wind gusts will remain elevated as nor'easter lingers offshore. Confidence in the eventual route of the nor'easter remains uncertain at this time and this will likely have some influence on the aviation forecast through much of next week. More details will become available as confidence increases.

MARINE

Latest obs show winds beginning to pick up offshore with sustained values of 10-15 kts gusting 15-20 kts.

Latest obs show continuing W/SW winds 5-10 knots with seas mainly 2-3 ft representing the last pleasant boating conditions for quite some time as a cold front is expected to move through the area on Saturday with a low pressure system forming into a potential nor'easter which will linger offshore well into next week.

Outlook (Sat through Tues): The aforementioned cold front will bring northerly to NNWerly winds to all of the waters by 12z Saturday. Winds will pick up significantly by saturday afternoon as nor'ester begins the early stages of its genesis over the Gulf Stream. Gale Warnings are now in effect for all waters from Saturday afternoon and will linger into the middle of next week. In addition a Storm Watch is now in effect for the central and southern 20-60 nm Marine Zones from 00z Sunday through 06z on Monday. During this time seas are expected to be anywhere from 8-12 ft in the 0-20 nm zones upwards of 20-25 feet in the outer waters of the 60 nm zones. Wave periods will peak around 13-15 s Sunday and Monday. For now the duration of the event remains extremely uncertain with the possibility of dangerous marine conditions possibly continuing through the entirety of next week.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 10/16 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/1917 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ047- 081-195. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ196. High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for NCZ196-203>205. High Surf Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-135-230-231. Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152- 154. Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156- 158. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ180. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ182-184. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for AMZ182-184. Gale Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ186-188. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ186-188.