textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have added fog into the forecast for tonight. Updated all discussions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure remains in place through Friday with light winds and above normal temperatures. Chance for widespread fog tonight.

2) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system bringing next chance of rain this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Forecast remains on track today with surface high centered near the coast this afternoon. This has brought yet another pleasant afternoon to ENC as the area remains under partly cloudy skies, east to southeasterly winds, low humidity, and temps in the mid to upper 80s inland and mid 70s to low 80s along the coast and OBX.

Aloft, upper level trough that was over the Mid-Atlantic today will gradually push offshore on Thursday and will continue east as upper level ridging replaces it. At the surface, high pressure currently centered along the coast will continue to push out to sea tonight into Thurs allowing SE'rly winds to veer further to a S-SW'rly direction by Thurs night. Prior to this occuring, expect winds to once again become light and variable to calm tonight across ENC. With clear skies, ample low level moisture, and light winds we have a threat for more widespread fog tonight with the potential for visibilities below 1 mile at times given the setup. REFS and HREF data suggest A 50-70% chance for visibilities below 1 mile across most of ENC outside of the far norther tier of counties and the OBX. As a result have a mix of patchy and widespread fog in the grids tonight after midnight across much of ENC. Lows this evening are forecast to remain in the 60s. Beyond tonight, upper ridging will be over the Mid-Atlantic into the end of the week before pushing offshore with the approach of an upper level trough in the Ohio River Valley that will push east as well. At the surface, high pressure will be centered offshore keeping S'rly flow in place across ENC and allowing for dry weather and a continued warming trend into the end of the week. By the end of the week the area could flirt with record highs given the set up (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).

For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees, and forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s for much of ENC, with some 90s possible inland Thurs, likely low 90s on Fri. Persistent southerly flow and increasing low- level moisture should help to keep overnight lows higher as well, and well above the normal lows of around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...No real changes in forecast thinking this weekend and into next week as precipitation chances return for the weekend as Gulf moisture opens up and a cold front drapes across the southern Appalachians and pushes southeastward slowly on Saturday. This will squeeze moisture into eastern NC elevating rain chances for the weekend. While thunderstorms will be possible, the threat for severe weather is low at this time.

The front loses steam as it approaches the coast, potentially briefly stalling over Coastal Carolinas, ahead of a second reinforcing front spurred from the Great Lakes by a stronger trough aloft. Precip chances do look to diminish by Tue next week as the aforementioned fronts push offshore and a strong high pressure ridge builds in from the north and west.

For now, ensemble guidance is showing about a 30-50% chance of exceeding 1" of rain with this system. Any rain will be helpful, especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is currently in moderate to extreme drought.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions prevail through this evening with diurnal CU field noted across ENC. winds become SE through the afternoon as high pressure slides offshore aiding the seabreeze circulation through. Another round of fog potential tonight across all TAF sites, with winds going calm after being onshore adding more moisture, and mostly clear skies. Guidance continues to hint at this with the RRFS/NAM/GLAMP being the most aggressive with the fog threat, though most model guidance does show reduced visibility tonight. As a result have included fog with vis as low as 1 mile for now at all TAF sites given model agreement in fog potential, mainly between 07Z-13Z. Will continue to monitor trends and make adjustments as needed. After daybreak THursday expect any fog to dissipate and FR conditions to return to all of ENC and persist through the day.

Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG, a low-impact aviation period is expected through the end of the work week. Precipitation chances increase for the weekend as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday with the potential for more extended periods of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

Benign boating conditions continue across ENC this afternoon with widespread 5-10 kt E-SE'rly winds and 1-3 ft seas across our area waters as high pressure ridging continues to gradually push offshore. Winds will veer to a S-SW direction by Thurs evening while remaining at about 5-10 kts. Of note, some funneling through the Albemarle Sound may allow a period of 10-15kt winds there this afternoon. Seas generally remain around 1-3 ft at 9-10 sec into Thursday as well.

Outlook: Good boating conditions are expected through at least Friday. By the weekend, a front will be approaching the area from the NW, and this is expected to lead to a modest increase in south to southwest winds, 10-15G20KT FRI afternoon. Increasing moisture plus weak instability may eventually lead to a risk of thunderstorms as well, especially on Sunday. At this time conditions look to remain below small craft advisory levels through the weekend, becoming increasingly more likely early next week behind a stronger reinforcing cold front on Mon.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 10/02 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 93/1986 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 89/1986 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 94/1986 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 88/1954 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 95/1986 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/1986 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.