textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Wx Advisory has been issued for portions of the area, with the potential for light snow and/or ice accumulations tonight into Thursday morning.

SCAs issued for the coastal waters and sounds, with northerly surge developing behind the front tonight and early Thu morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Travel will remain treacherous, especially on secondary roads, through the next few days due to black ice and lingering snow cover.

2) Light snow and/or ice accumulations expected for portions of the area tonight into early Thu morning. The main concern is light ice accretion for areas along and west of Hwy 17. Very light snow or sleet accumulations possible across the northern tier. A Winter Wx Advisory has been issued. Only minor impacts expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Impacts from this past weekend's winter storm will continue through the next few days as black ice and remaining snow pack will make travel hazardous, particularly during overnight and morning hours when temperatures are expected to be fall below freezing. Special Weather Statement continues through this morning to highlight the potential for black ice on the roads.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Models are in fairly good agreement on a low pressure system moving across the northern Great Lakes and Quebec and dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley and across the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas by Thursday morning. Radar shows light returns developing to the west early this morning, though likely more virga right now given the dry air in place. Given current sfc temps expect precip to remain mostly light rain/drizzle though a brief wintry mix will be possible before temps warm as weak boundary lifts through the area early this morning. Mainly a cool rain expected today as light to moderate rain will continue to overspread the area. Rainfall totals 0.10-0.5" should hopefully aid in eroding the snowpack in place across ENC. Below normal temps will continue today, with highs generally 40-50 deg.

A cold front will push south through the area this evening and tonight with waves of low pressure developing along it, while strong shortwave approaches from the west. Expect precip to gradually transition from rain to a wintry mix from north to south tonight into Thursday morning (everywhere except the Outer Banks, Mainland Dare and Downeast Carteret County where temps will remain abv freezing). Model soundings depict boundary layer temperatures falling the quickest while a warm nose aloft hangs on for a few hours, resulting in a thermal profile favorable for freezing rain for a few hours, with potential for light snow/sleet as well (mainly across the northern tier). By mid-morning on Thursday, precip will likely be pushing off the coast. While some flurries can't be ruled out for most of the coastal plain, areas north of Highway 264 are those most likely to see very light snow accum (light dusting possible). A light glaze of ice is possible for much of the CWA with a 30-40% chance of more than a tenth of an inch of ice accretion roughly along Highway 17 (locally higher amounts possible).

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Pred VFR conditions continue through much of the early morning as mid level clouds continue gradually lowering over ENC and light rain is moving into the region ahead of an approaching frontal system. MVFR ceilings have been trending slower for the onset, so now expecting MVFR conditions to move in from the NW around 13-17Z for areas along/west of hwy 17, and 16-22Z for areas east of hwy 17, not reaching Hatteras Island until closer to 00Z. Have reflected this slower trend in the 12Z TAFs. IFR ceilings have also trended a bit later as a result, and will continue through tonight. Rain over the snow pack could also aid in producing fog with lower vsbys through the day today. Winds expected to generally be light SW 5-10kt through this morning, then a slow moving front will push south across the area during the afternoon with wind becoming Nly behind the front. A moderate LLJ expected to bring LLWS concerns early this morning. Early thursday morning freezing light rain and snow chances pick up behind the front, and have now added FZRA mentions in all TAFs. Kept SN of TAFs from now given lesser probs during the TAF period compared to FZRA, but may need to be added in future updates. Icing amounts are expected to be at or less than 0.10" through the event, and will be focused in the area currently under a Winter Weather Advisory.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions return late Thursday and expected to persist through the weekend.

MARINE

Latest obs show S-SW winds 5-15 kt across the northern portions of the waters, and 10-20 kt across the southern and central waters. Brief period of gusty winds will be possible through mid morning across the outer central and southern waters with occasional gusts to 25 kt with sea 3-5 ft. A cold front will push through the waters from north to south this evening into early Thu morning. Moderate to strong northerly surge will develop behind the front 15-25 kt with seas responding and building to 4-6 ft, peaking at 5-9 ft Thu and Thu evening. Occ gale force gusts possible Thu afternoon and eve.

Outlook: Conditions will slowly improve through the day Friday. This will be short lived though, with winds increasing Fri night and into the weekend. Strong SCA conditions likely to develop, with potential for Gale Force winds Sat and Sat night.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090-091. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for NCZ046-081-092-094-193>195-198-199. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 2 PM EST Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ156-158.