textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will push south through the waters this evening followed by a reinforcing front Sunday night. High pressure builds into the area early next week before another frontal system brings the next chance of rain late Tuesday through Wednesday. Cool and dry high pressure then builds back in behind this system Thanksgiving and the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 230 PM Saturday...A shortwave trough is currently pushing across the Mid-Atlantic with a cold front draped across SE and central VA. Sufficient forcing with the s/w in the presence of strong shear and modest instability is bringing widely scattered showers across NE NC this afternoon. With 45-55kt of bulk shear and 500-1000J/Kg CAPE in place, saw a few stronger cells with reflectivity around 40-50+ dbz earlier this afternoon, but they have since weakened as they move into a more stable marine environment. The shortwave pushes offshore late this afternoon but isolated to widely scattered showers will continue to be possible as the cold front pushes south across the area through mid evening. Continue to include slight chance for a thunderstorm through early evening given shear and instability parameters. Precip chances tapers off behind the front this evening but a secondary shortwave will push across the area afternoon midnight bringing the potential for additional showers, mainly south of the Pamlico River.

Warm temps this afternoon in the 70s most area. Most climate sites remain a few degrees shy of breaking a record (see CLIMATE section below), with the exception of KNCA has at least tied its previous record with its 2 PM observation. Temps will continue to be around 10 degrees above normal tonight with lows around 50 inland to mid 50s coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 3 PM Saturday...High pressure ridges into the area Sunday with clearing skies after morning stratus dissipates. Temps will be around 10 degrees cooler than today with highs in the mid 60s most areas, though northerly flow will keep highs across the Northern OBX around 60.

A northern stream shortwave pushes across the northern Mid- Atlantic and New England Sunday with the attendant cold front pushing south across the area late Sunday night. Deep WNW downslope flow will bring sufficient subsidence to keep conditions dry with the front and will likely see little in the way of clouds. The front will usher in an even cooler airmass, back to around normal, and expect lows around 40 inland to around 50 along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 3 AM Saturday...Cool and dry high pressure will build across the area Monday and slides offshore on Tuesday. Temps will be near normal Monday and Monday night, but southerly return flow will bring warming temps on Tuesday with highs around 6-10 degrees above normal.

Next chance for rain arrives late Tuesday and continues into Wednesday as a shortwave trough and attendant cold front approaches the area. This system has the potential to tap into some Gulf moisture, as layer streamlines are out of the sw through the SE CONUS, but timing and mesoscale features are yet to be ironed out, so continue to advertise no higher than 40-60% pops this far out in time. Temps will continue to be well above normal Wednesday and some locations may approach record values.

High pressure builds into the area on Thanksgiving through the end of the week bringing dry conditions and much cooler temps across the region. Temps are looking to be around 5-10+ degrees below normal with highs in the 50s. Sub freezing temps are possible for many inland locations Thursday night through Saturday night.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 1 PM Sat...

Key Messages

- Low stratus likely (70%+ chance) to bring IFR conditions to much of ENC tonight

- Low chance (10-30%) of showers this afternoon and evening, with another 20-40% chance for areas along and south of Highway 70 after midnight tonight

- VFR conditions return with clearing skies late Sunday morning

VFR conditions prevail across much of ENC as of early Saturday afternoon, with only a few lingering areas of broken MVFR ceilings around 2kft. Remaining low clouds will continue to scatter out while moving off to the east over the next hour, with a return to VFR conditions for EWN/ISO. VFR conditions will then prevail through the afternoon and evening hours today with gusty southwesterly winds this afternoon (gusts 15-25 kts) and a slight chance (10-30%) of isolated rain showers as a cold front pushes through the region. Coverage is likely to be widely scattered at best given generally weak upper-level support/forcing.

As the cold front pushes through the region, low-level cold air advection and moisture pooling underneath a frontal inversion will lead to the resurgence of low stratus from northeast to southwest. Confidence is high (greater than 70% chance) for low stratus to bring widespread IFR conditions to much of ENC tonight. A second, weak shortwave will also push through the region after midnight tonight. This will bring another low chance (10-30%) of isolated to scattered showers before dawn on Sunday. Have opted against including a mention of precip in the TAFs as of this cycle but will continue to monitor trends.

Low stratus will be slow to lift tomorrow morning given the frontal version that will be in place. Current expectation is for sub-VFR conditions to linger into the late morning before skies clear out for the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions expected through early this coming week as cooler high pressure builds into the region. Another frontal system will bring the next chances for precip mid week.

MARINE

As of 315 PM Saturday...WSW prefrontal flow around 10-15 kt continues across most of the waters with the exception of the northern waters where winds have shifted to northerly behind an outflow boundary associated with showers moving across NE NC and the offshore waters near the Gulf Stream where warmer waters have allowed deeper mixing and have seen SW winds around 20 kt with gusts as high as 25-30 kt and seas have build up to 6 ft. Have extended the SCA south of Oregon Inlet a couple of hours with conditions still above criteria but they should be gradually improving as the front approaches.

The cold front is currently approaching the VA/NC border and will push across the ENC waters this evening with a northerly surge around 10-20 kt expected. Could see a brief initial post frontal gust as high as 25 kt but for the most part expect conditions to remain below SCA criteria. Seas expected to mainly be around 2-4 ft tonight. Northerly winds diminish through the day Sunday with high pressure ridging while backing to NW to W during the afternoon as the high sags southward ahead of a reinforcing backdoor front. The reinforcing front will push through the waters late Sunday night with a stronger Nly surge potentially bringing brief SCA winds to the some of the coastal waters Sunday night to early Monday. High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with S to SWly return flow developing. Could see SCA conditions developing as early as Tuesday night across portions of the waters, mainly across the offshore waters near the Gulf Stream, ahead of a cold front. The front is progged to push across the waters Wednesday night with NW post frontal flow likely bringing a period of SCA conditions for much of the waters on Thursday.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 11/22 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 78/1992 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 81/1931 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 79/1997 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 80/1953 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 77/2007 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ152- 154-156-158.