textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Decreased minT for this morning and added patchy frost for Duplin County. Increased marine wind gusts for post frontal winds this evening and tonight, and issued SCA for waters off of Hatteras Island.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through this week.

2) Much cooler and drier conditions early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). Yesterday's rainfall was not enough to alleviate these drought conditions.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Deep mixing in the afternoons today and Wednesday allows for relative humidities 20-25% and wind gusts around or above 20 mph. Tuesday we will reach low RH's, but winds should remain light with high pressure overhead.

A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A substantially cooler and drier airmass has moved into the region as skies have cleared and winds have become light to calm. This has allowed temps to crater, with the coldest spots inland in the upper 30s. MinTs are in the mid 30s for SW portions of the CWA, increasing to the upper 30s and low 40s further north inland. Closer to the coast, light winds prevent decoupling and temps from cratering. Patchy fog has also been observed inland this morning, likely worsening around sunrise before quickly dissipating.

Today, another, albeit weaker and completely dry, cold front sags S through the FA, with winds temporarily being light and SWerly in the morning ahead of the front. Highs back down closer to Normal for this time of year, upper 60s to low 70s in SWern zones. Tuesday morning will be chilly yet again, with some uncertainty on how cold we actually get. Some dry air advection behind the front Monday night should keep us from decoupling to start the night, but as we approach the early morning hours Tuesday chances for decoupling increase. Current forecast calls for low temps in the upper 30s to near 40 inland, upper 40s to near 50 along the coast. Chance for frost Tuesday morning is less than 20% at this time.

High pressure lingers, through Tuesday, pushing offshore wednesday. A cold front approaches ENC from the north early Thursday before stalling near the NC/VA border and lifting back north late-week. With cold front stalling to our north and SW flow continuing beyond Wednesday, we will see a warming trend for the second half of the work week. Next chance for rain is next weekend when another front will cross.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Lingering low level moisture behind a cold front as well as calm and clear conditions will lead to areas of fog developing over the coastal plain early this morning. IFR conditions are likely in the hours just before sunrise, but there is some question of how impactful fog will be with dry air moving in...fog may be dense, but very shallow. This includes KPGV and KISO, while areas farther east may only see some light patchy fog, such as KOAJ. For KEWN and points east, a light breeze should limit fog potential and keep VFR conditions here.

VFR conditions will return quickly after sunrise with light winds and clear skies the rest of the morning. This afternoon, winds will pick up as a dry front moves through the region, with wind gusts reaching 20-25 kts out of the west through sunset. VFR conditions will continue with only some lower mid level clouds moving through.

Outlook: Pred VFR expected most of next week but could see patchy late night, early morning fog at some terminals.

MARINE

Winds and seas continue stepping down through the morning, with only headlines left a SCA for coastal waters off of Hatteras Island. Winds decrease to be sub 10 knots this morning and early afternoon as weak, transient ridging moves through.

Another cold front is slated to cross regional waters through the today, but this is forecast to be mostly dry within 20 nm of the coast with weaker winds. Beyond 20 nm chance of showers increases along the front. Winds briefly become SWerly ahead of the front 10-15kt and slightly stronger out of the N behind it, 10-20kt with 25-30kt gusts possible over coastal and outer waters as well as far Eern portions of Pamlico Sound. Surge of winds should be 3-6 hours in length. SCA has been issued for the waters off of Hatteras Island out to 20 nm, as these zones have the best chance of seeing frequent wind gusts over 25 knots for 6 hours. Remaining coastal waters and inland sounds could see gusts of this intensity, but chances of it lasting more than 3 hours is substantially less.

Outlook: Generally N-Nerly winds through into mid week before becoming SW TUE night/WED. Winds strengthen from midweek on ahead of a front slated to approach from the N but likely stall over Nern portions of regional waters FRI. Another back door cold front approaches the Carolinas late- week bringing shifting and elevated winds. Conditions deteriorate again second half of next weekend with better chances of a front, and perhaps a Low pressure system, crossing the area.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.