textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed thunder chances for all but the Outer Banks.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system will bring widespread beneficial rain Sunday through early Monday morning.

2) Well above normal temperatures are expected for inland areas next week.

MARINE...Monitoring the potential for hazardous marine conditions late Sunday through Monday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A low pressure system will track E across the Gulf states on Sunday and ENE and off the coast of the Carolinas Sunday night/Monday. Most models continue with a low track just south of ENC, keeping the region in the cool sector, and thus limited thunder chances. Have trimmed back the 20% thunder to just the OBX zones, as some elevated instability may be advected in off the Gulf Stream, though most of ENC will receive a stratiform very welcome soaking rain. Large- scale forcing, with decent vorticity advection, along with above climo PW's, a general 1-1.5" inches of rain is expected for most of ENC, with locally higher amounts closing in on 2" possible, best chances for nearing 2" on the OBX. This will be a beneficial rain for ENC with severe drought conditions across the coastal plain and abnormally dry conditions along the coast.

Of note, a risk of sea fog may develop within the moistening return flow ahead of Sunday's system, though the window for that is short, as while TD's are moistening through the 30s on light southwesterly winds late Sat night/early Sun morning, wind direction will be veering around to the northeast through later Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Swrly low-mid level flow beneath anomalous ridging aloft should support an increased chance of above normal temperatures for much of next week. For reference, normal highs this time of year are in the upper 50s to low 60s, with normal lows in the 30s. The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day temperature outlook now shows a 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures, along with a good chance of below normal rainfall, which may lead to some fire weather concerns.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. With high pressure overhead, winds are generally expected to be light and variable.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday as low pressure passes south of the area, bringing widespread RA, low CIGs, and reduced VIS. A period of sea fog may develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning, potentially impacting runways near the Crystal Coast (KNJM, KMRH) with reduced VIS.

MARINE

Good boating conditions will persist through Saturday. As the high shifts offshore tomorrow, winds will back to the SW at 5-15 kt and seas will subside to 1-3 ft.

Sunday through Monday: A low moving near the coast of the Carolinas late this weekend will bring hazardous marine conditions starting Sunday evening. Strong winds over the Gulf Stream may lend to Gale conditions here, both with strong srly flow ahead of the low Sunday night, then strong nrly winds behind the departing low on Monday. Elsewhere, SCA winds and seas are expected. Some thunderstorms may accompany areas of heavy rain over the Gulf waters south of C Hatteras on Sunday night.

Of note, ahead of the low, moistening flow over cooler waters could bring a period of sea fog concerns for the coastal waters and inland sounds/rivers Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds and seas relax as low pressure pulls away with general southwesterly breezes, but staying sub SCA speeds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.