textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy NE winds and high astronomical tides will bring the potential for additional coastal flooding through at least mid week.

2) Mostly dry with near to slightly below climo temps through early this week, then warming to above climo mid to late week with continued dry conditions. Next chance of rain late weekend to early next week.

Marine: Elevated seas may continue to bring hazardous boating conditions through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will result in a period of continued large waves across the OBX. The high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to additional minor coastal flooding impacts.

For Hatteras Island, seas offshore are in the 6-8 foot range, slowly subsiding through the coming week, but long period swells will continue to cause issues for vulnerable areas. For ocean-side: high tide is between 0800-0830 PM EDT today. Soundside high tides lag by up to 3 hours behind the oceanside tides. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe.

Coastal flooding will be likely well into this week despite the diminishing of winds, with "sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of ENC around times of high tide, then slowly improve as the King Tides ease later in the week and into the weekend. Coastal flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler and drier air mass will remain with us through early this week, with near climo highs, to slightly below avg lows. Lows getting well down into the 40s with some 30s again possible when the high pressure ridges into ENC allowing for excellent rad cooling under clear skies, calm winds, and low TD's. Low end fog threat exists with the aforementioned conditions, with best chances east of hwy 17. Kept fog out of the forecast for now given the low probs, but may be added with later updates. Hts/thicknesses begin to build by mid week, with temps climbing back above climo with highs in the mid 70s, then upper 70s by Thursday into the weekend. Lows will remain closer to climo (50s) as dry airmass remains with a large diurnal temp range.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

High pressure overhead will lead to generally light winds over the next 24 hours. With light winds and clear skies overnight, there will be a risk of sub-VFR conditions due to BR/MIFG/FG. Guidance is mixed on whether or not all TAF sites will see reductions to VIS. Given the potential, the 00z TAFs are mostly unchanged from the 18z TAFs. It's worth pointing out that the TAF sites with the highest probabilities of reduced VIS are KEWN and KMRH where the highest low- level moisture may reside. Conditions should improve by 13z on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, a modest northeast wind may redevelop along with a FEW/SCT cumulus layer.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): Generally, expect VFR conditions to continue through the week with quasi-stationary high pres over the region. However, coastal sections could see ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic.

MARINE

Seas have fallen below 6 ft for most of the nearshore coastal waters leg from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening. In light of this, the Small Craft Advisory was cancelled early. The remaining advisories were unchanged.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: High pres has begun to move into ENC, and winds are responding by diminishing. Elevated seas will cont today in the 6-8 ft range, and a SCA remains in effect for coastal waters. There is some uncertainty with the end time of the SCA, in a best case scenario we are below 6 ft Tuesday night. However, guidance has been underdone on wave heights as of late, so elected to keep the SCA end time at Thursday for now.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): Longer period swells are likely slow to subside this week with a tightened pres gradient remaining to the south of ENC, and SCA headlines cont for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet through Thursday morning.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ080-094- 194>196-199-203>205. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.