textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with the latest forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon with the area in the major heat risk category.

2) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms this evening and continuing into the weekend as a cold front approaches the area from the north.

3) Increasing chances for hot and humid conditions to return next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another hot afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s/lower 90s along the coast. Dew point temps have dropped into the mid to upper 60s well inland and low to mid 70s closer to the coast. The lower dewpoints have made it feel slightly more comfortable, but it is still quite hot with heat indices generally around 100-105 but a few warmer locations have climbed into the 105-110 degree range. Will continue the Heat Advisory through the afternoon as advertised.

Low level thicknesses decrease several meters on Sat with temps a few degrees lower while dewpoints begin to creep back up resulting in another day with heat index values around 100 degrees with the heat risk in the moderate range for most of the area with just a small area near the coast reaching the major criteria. Given the lower heat risk and heat index values, a Heat Advisory will not be issued for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms associated with an MCV is pushing across the Carolina piedmont this afternoon and is progged to pushing to ENC early this evening, though isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. With MLCAPE currently around 1500-2000 J/Kg and 0-6km bulk shear around 20-25 kt, a few storms will have the capability of becoming strong to marginally severe. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with the storm with DCAPE as high as 1300 J/Kg across the region. SPC has increased ENC to a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening.

A mid level shortwave and surface front approaching from the north and west Saturday and move through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning before pushing off the coast. A moist and unstable environment persists ahead of the front with improving upper level forcing and could see strong to severe thunderstorms again Saturday afternoon and evening. Instability generally ranges from 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE Sat with deep layer shear increasing slightly to 25-30 kts. Combined with greater upper level support, thunderstorms could become more organized Sat afternoon bringing a damaging wind threat (40-60 mph gusts) to much of ENC on Sat. SPC has also outlined ENC under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather again on Saturday.

Upper level troughing continues across the area on Sunday bringing the continued threat of showers and thunderstorms across the area, however northeast post frontal flow will keep a bit lower and the severe thunderstorm threat is limited. PW values do increase to around 2" and storm motions favorable for training/or slow moving cells that could produce locally heavy rainfall with the potential for localized flooding in low-lying areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3...While we cool down at the beginning of next week under NE'rly flow, hot and humid conditions return to the area bringing yet another threat for an extended period of hot and humid conditions late next week. NWS probabilistic heat risk guidance suggests much of the area has a 50% + chance at seeing major heat risk levels starting around Thurs/Fri next week and CPC has put ENC under a moderate risk for hazardous temperatures during this timeframe as well.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A line of showers and thunderstorms is pushing across the area this evening bringing the threat of sub-VFR conditions. Some storms may also bring heavy rain and strong wind gusts. Conditions improve after midnight but some guidance shows a few showers lingering into the early morning hours. Probabilities for fog and stratus remains low tonight with HREF and REFS showing less than 10% chance. An active pattern continues on Saturday as an upper trough and sfc cold front approach the region with strong to severe storms possible in the the afternoon. SW winds will prevail ahead of the front and expect gusts around 15-20 kt during the afternoon.

Outlook (Saturday night through Tuesday): An upper level trough and associated surface front push through the area early Sunday bringing increasing chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions to ENC. Could see improving conditions on Monday with mainly VFR conditions forecast Mon and Tue under clearing skies and light NE winds.

MARINE

SW wind increase late this afternoon and evening to around 15-25 kt with seas building to around 4-7 ft. Strongest winds will occur over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and continue the SCA in these zones through late tonight. Conditions gradually improve through the day Saturday.

Outlook (Saturday night through Tuesday): A backdoor cold front drops through the waters late Saturday night and Sunday with winds becoming NE around 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. A weak area of low pressure may form along the stalled front to the south Monday keeping E-NEly flow across the waters through early next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.