textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move through the area tonight. This front will be followed up by a reinforcing cold front late Thanksgiving. High pressure then builds in over the weekend. High pressure shifts offshore early next week, giving way to a potentially more robust frontal system and rainmaker.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

As of 2205 Wednesday...No major changes, only minor T/Td adjustments and some blending of rapid refresh HiRes guidance to capture timing of FROPA. Front currently moving Eward almost directly over I95 at the time of writing.

Previous Disco...As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- No hazardous weather expected as pattern turns cooler

Amplified pattern in place across the CONUS this afternoon with strong closed low swirling over the Great Lakes and broad troughing in place over the eastern half the country, while over the rest ridging continues to expand. At the surface, respectably strong low pressure (~993 mb) is occluding over the western Great Lakes while secondary low is lifting towards the Delmarva Peninsula, dragging a cold front across the Carolinas and southeast.

This cold front was supposed to be the focus of some showers and a low risk of a thunderstorm, but with very weak forcing and dry antecedent conditions, this activity has now completely fizzled out per satellite and radar trends. The only impact from this activity appears to be an enhancement of wind gusts likely due to evaporative cooling. New Bern is currently experiencing this, having reported an earlier gust of 34 kt at the airfield. This risk will continue for a few more hours while insolation is maximized.

After hitting the mid to upper The rest of this afternoon and tonight will see further clearing as CAA and dry in fills in behind this first front. Winds will remain elevated overnight, especially across OBX where gusts up to 25-30 mph are likely, as temperatures steadily march downward into the upper 30s to low 40s inland, mid 40s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/

As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- No hazardous weather expected

Continued clear and cool weather expected for Thanksgiving as cold front pushes further offshore and new airmass establishes itself over the Carolinas. Highs will only reach into the low to mid 50s, with less gusty northwesterly winds inland but still some gusts to 20-25 mph along the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 235 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Very cold Fri night forecast after Thanksgiving with lows in the 20s

- Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall next week

Widespread freezing temps are expected Thanksgiving night, but coldest portion of the airmass is expected to be overhead Friday and Friday night as 850mb temps fall to nearly 15 degrees below normal. With high pressure overhead Friday night, excellent radiational cooling conditions may allow some inland areas of the coastal plain to fall into the upper teens.

The cold airmass from Thanksgiving is expected to begin to moderate over the weekend as southerly return flow develops. This will occur in advance of a positively-tilted upper trough that is forecast to develop from the Southwest U.S. into the Central U.S. Within this regime, medium range guidance shows some significant differences regarding individual shortwaves that are forecast to traverse the Southeast U.S. It's a pattern worth keeping an eye on as there is a decent signal for coastal low development, especially early to mid next week. This signal shows up in both deterministic and machine learning guidance. This pattern typically carries a higher level of uncertainty, though, as guidance often struggles with the evolution of shortwaves as they eject out of the base of the trough.

At face value, the latest signal in deterministic and machine learning guidance suggests an increased risk of meaningful rainfall, and the forecast will reflect this potential.

Temperatures are expected to moderate by Sunday, but may then get pulled back down if more persistent northeasterly flow redevelops next week.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1820 Wednesday...VFR flight cats through the TAF period with a SW-NW winds shift with FROPA. Cold front currently located across central NC will continue to push Eward and cross ENC tonight. Gusts have fallen out but steady SWerly breeze remains in place ahead of the front. Obs reporting SKC with just thin upper level cloud coverage in place. VFR flight cats prevail through Thanksgiving, NWerly winds 5-10kt with G15kt during peak heating and FEW to SCT upper level clouds.

Thu through Sat...Mainly VFR with dry and cold high pres overhead through early weekend. Bouts of gusty nwrly winds due to strong CAA both Thu afternoon and again Fri afternoon.

Sun through Mon...The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front approaches, and along with it a chance for sub VFR cond developing.

MARINE

As of 1920 Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Was able to cancel GALE early, SCA in its place

- SCA for PamSound was also able to be cancelled early

- Elevated winds and seas to last into tonight, and then redevelop Thursday night into Friday

Dry FROPA expected tonight, front expected to be outside of all 20NM zones by around 0300-0400est. Regional observations show 10-20kt inside and near- shore waters, but over warmer Gulf Stream enhanced mixing is resulting in winds of around 25 kt with gusts up to the low 30s over warmest waters. Seas have responded, building to 4-8 feet in stronger winds and 3-4 feet elsewhere.

FROPA will put an end to the stronger southerly flow. Despite enhanced mixing behind the front, winds aloft are not expected to be as strong, which should limit the risk of 25kt+ winds. With that said, there is a short window of 2-4hrs where SCA wind gusts will exist over bulk of Nern coastal waters, but opted to not issue a new SCA for this zone considering it's overnight and very short-lived. This has been highlighted in text and radio products as "briefly becoming...and then diminishing to..."

Outlook: A reinforcing shot of cold air and enhanced mixing will likely lead to another risk of 25kt winds across much of the ENC waters Thursday night into Friday. Marine headlines are likely to be issued soon for this surge of northwesterly winds. High pressure then builds in over the weekend, leading to lighter winds (5-15kt) and lower seas (2-3ft). The next period for inclement boating weather will be next Tuesday ahead of the next front.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 1 PM Wed...

Key Messages:

- Fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday with gusty winds and low relative humidities.

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe drought conditions with a long duration of little to no rainfall. Behind a cold front tonight, dry air ushers into the region, allowing relative humidities to drop into the 20-30% range Thu afternoon, and 25-35% Fri afternoon. In addition, wind gusts will be in the 20+ mph each day. Considering the drought conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall season progresses, we will see an increased potential for fire weather concerns.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for AMZ158.