textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence has increased on timing of shower/tstorm chances Friday.

Post-frontal marine winds trended up, still below 25 kt gusts

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers today.

2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front on Friday.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A couple of slow moving to stationary boundaries have been evident on satellite since this morning, and along these boundaries scattered showers are ongoing. Dry air at low levels (700-800mb) and at mid levels (~500mb) as denoted on the 12Z MHX sounding should help keep showers shallow and brief in nature, and as a result thunder chances remain low through today. With a loss of daytime heating once the sun sets, coverage of shower should come down drastically.

We are pretty warm with temps in the low 80s inland, mid 70s along the coast. Highs shouldn't get much higher than this, especially with cloud cover increasing inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Ahead of the front, we could see more isolated to scattered showers moving SW to NE inland in the morning hours, still uncertain how much of an impact these have to instability later on in the day. Circling back to Friday afternoon, anomalous moisture and higher-than-normal instability (assuming morning showers have little to no impacT) for early November is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices inland, and where highest instability and shear will reside. Confidence is increasing on the best forcing lining up with peak heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas especially along and west of the Jacksonville/New Bern/Washington, NC corridor in the afternoon and early evening Main threat would be damaging wind gusts. With some weak helicity present a brief, weak tornado can't be ruled out. The front sweeps offshore late Friday with any remaining showers exiting the OBX around or shortly after midnight Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with frontal passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of the normally colder spots. We will have to monitor the temp forecast for any frost concerns Sunday morning.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

VFR skies across the board with some isolated weak showers in the region. sct/bkn cu field should dissipate with a loss of daytime heating. Later tonight, guidance isn't really suggesting any low stratus, and we should have winds elevated enough to preclude a fog threat. However, given how the past two morning have gone and low level moisture still in place, it is possible guidance is just not getting a good grasp of the situation. With that in mind, keeping a sct MVFR ceiling mention for most TAF sites tonight, but more aggressive flight restrictions may be necessitated with later updates. More SHRA may begin encroaching on the area from the west in the morning hours as well, as a cold front slowly edges east through central NC. Once we get towards the afternoon, the front is at our doorstep and TSRA risk with some gusty winds increases.

Outlook: On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Some of the strongest TSRA may be accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very heavy rain and IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The northwest wind shift along the front is expected to occur Friday evening or Friday night. A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then support mainly VFR conditions.

MARINE

Light to moderate southerly winds will continue through the period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters). Seas will persist at 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore through Friday. Scattered light showers will be possible through today. Friday, cold front moves through in the evening into overnight hours for our waters. Ahead of the front, strong thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and a brief waterspout are possible. Behind the front, winds switch to the north/northwest, gusting to near 20 knots.

Outlook (Friday night through Monday): Cold front pushes offshore, with north/northwest winds gusting to 20-25 knots behind it. Tstorm threat pushes offshore with the front. High builds in this weekend into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies rain-free. Waves also go down as a result.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.