textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense fog advisory has been trimmed, only active for Onslow county now. Scheduled to expire at 0900, but will probably be able to dropped early.

Aviation disco updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fog development overnight will reduce VIS across the bulk of ENC, and may be dense at times, especially for locales that saw a decent amount of rain MON. Plan accordingly for morning commute.

2) Reduced thunderstorm risk is expected today and Wednesday in the wake of the departing low, with more unsettled weather returning by Thursday into the weekend as front wobbles back towards the coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Decoupled winds at the SFC, clear skies, moist low levels, and saturated soils from MON's rain led to fog development over SWern zones of the FA overnight. OBS have been gradually improving through the early morning hours as drier has entered the FA carried by light NWerly breeze. Sunrise will aid in burning off the fog, but winds are expected to remain calm into mid morning, so fog will likely linger through the morning commute hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continues to suggest today will be primarily dry with only an isolated shower or storm possible on area breezes in the afternoon, but carrying less than 15% PoP over land areas. On Wednesday, surface flow becomes more onshore, kicking off a period of increasing moisture and instability across the Southeast U.S. coastline with a modest uptick of shower and thunderstorm coverage. Another wave of low pressure is forecast to lift along the offshore front Thursday into Friday, pulling it back towards the coast and providing a better focal point for more widespread coverage of showers and storms ahead of another front to cross the area SAT. High pressure builds back in behind SAT's front on SUN.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

Clearing skies and light winds led to fog development overnight, but VIS has gradually improved with drier air being carried into the FA in a light NWerly breeze behind the front, now offshore. Sunrise will further aid in burning off the fog. Drier conditions expected today with light northwesterly winds as front sits just offshore leading to VFR through the day after fog scatters out.

Outlook: Modest uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage Wednesday in increasingly moist SW flow. Front gets pulled back inland Thursday into Friday with even more widespread shower/storm coverage possible ahead of another front to cross the FA SAT.

MARINE

Benign boating conditions expected through much of the week as frontal boundary meanders across the region, being pulled back and forth by weak waves of low pressure progressing along it. Quiet conditions ongoing today with seas around 2-3 feet with a 12-13 second period peeking through wind chop, while Nerly winds AoB 10kt veer to become more Eerly this afternoon.

Outlook: Southerly flow returns by the middle of the week, and lasts into the end of the week. Seas should generally hold around 2-3ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft late in the week. The risk of thunderstorms slowly increases from WED onward when another wave of low pressure pushes the stalled boundary offshore back toward the coast. Another front will cross the area SAT with high pressure building back in behind it the second half of the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ198. MARINE...None.