textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant chnages this forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An unsettled pattern persists through Thursday with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

2) Drier and cooler behind a cold front Fri, becoming more unsettled again this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC remains firmly entrenched in the warm sector, with front stalled to the north/west and deep moist SSW flow continuing. The front will remain quasi-stationary through the middle of the week and should be the primary focus for convection through Wednesday. Away from the front, convection should mostly be seabreeze-driven...best chances along the coast early then shifting inland in the afternoon. The mean storm motion parallel to the front, plus moderate instability and 2" PWATs will continue to support a risk of intense rainfall rates and possible localized flooding. On Thursday, the front is forecast to move back toward the area as a shortwave moves off the Mid- Atlantic/New England Coast. This may offer at least one more day of unsettled weather, but perhaps with a focus across the southern half of ENC as opposed to the entire area.

A modest increase in mid-upper level westerly flow through Wednesday should lead to a bump up in deep layer shear to 20- 30kt. This suggests an increase in the potential for storm organization each day during that time. This combined with moderate instability of 1000-2000j/kg MLCAPE may support an isolated severe thunderstorm risk each afternoon and evening, but weak mid level lapse rates will keep the threat to a minimum. On Thursday, shear is forecast to increase as the above- mentioned cold front moves through and this may lead to a slightly improved risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Analog, deterministic, and machine learning guidance continue to hint at this potential as well. Main concern will likely continue to be the potentially for locally heavy rain and minor flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is forecast to push through the area Thu night and early Friday, bringing drier and cooler conditions Fri as N-E flow develops. The front will then begin to lift back northward this weekend, potentially remaining stalled just to the south with an area of low pressure passing offshore, but still lots of uncertainty on how this will evolve. Proximity of front and strength of the high to the north, may keep things unsettled over the weekend, with highest pops likely across the southern portions of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Currently seeing VFR conditions across the eastern portion of ENC while the far western rtes, generally along and west of a line from EDE to DPL, where IFR stratus has developed early this morning, including impacting PGV. The stratus will lift and dissipate by mid-morning with pred VFR conditions through much of the day outside of showers and thunderstorms that will late morning through the afternoon hours. Showers and storms will dissipate through the evening with loss of heating and could see redevelopment of stratus tonight.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): A front is forecast to remain stalled just north of ENC through the middle of the week, with the greatest risk of TSRA focused along it. Thus a daily risk of seabreeze TSRA appears likely, along with an associated wind shift. Periods of sub-VFR conditions can be expected where SHRA and TSRA occur, as well as each night and early morning (due to SCT/BKN low stratus layers). A cold front will push through

MARINE

Latest obs show SSW winds 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft. Seas remain elevated in combo of windswell and longer period NE swell from the northern Atlantic. Moderate SSW winds 10-20 kt will continue through the period. Could see occasional gusts to 25 kt this evening, though looks too marginal for SCA at this time.

Outlook: Gradients will tighten on Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a cold front that will push through the waters late Thursday with the potential for SCA conditions across the waters, the greatest probabilities will be south of Oregon Inlet and Pamlico Sound where SW winds around 20-30 kt will be possible with seas building up to 6-7 ft. Unsettled weather will continue through Thursday with shower and thunderstorms chances persisting. The front will push south of the waters Thu night into early Fri, with N-E flow developing behind it.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. MARINE...None.