textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Late afternoon update: Minor adjustments to sensible Wx grids for OBX and fresh cut of winds through the rest of the weekend. Marine hazard timings have been adjusted; was able to drop Nern inside waters SCA early.

Previous changes: Minor decreases to QPF and wind gusts for the remainder of today. Timing of frontal passage Thursday coming into better focus, resulting in increasing PoPs and wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain tapers off this evening into tonight as a coastal low tracks northeastwards while deepening. This low will drag a frontal system through the area tonight bringing cooler and drier conditions.

2) Cold front moves through later next week bringing gusty winds and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe potential exists, but confidence is low.

Marine: Small Craft Advisories in effect today into Sunday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis shows a low that is gradually deepening about 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras. Light to moderate rain is spread over the region. As the afternoon goes on and the low shifts further away, the expectation is for rain to become more scattered in nature. Meanwhile, a cold front is currently near Charlotte and Greensboro and moving east, as noted by NE'rly sfc winds east of CLT and GSO, and NW'rly sfc winds to the west. Rainfall totals have been on the lower end of guidance thanks to little to no instability and a more offshore track of the low. MRMS analysis shows 0.25"-0.5" of rain fallen over much of the region, with isolated higher values over N Craven, Beaufort, and Hyde counties where a stronger shower moved through early this morning.

Front passes through tonight, with high settling into the Carolinas tomorrow morning. CAA behind this front will help temps cool to the 40s inland, near 50 along the coast tomorrow morning. After tonight, we do see a gradual warming trend as N'rly winds switch to a S'rly direction allowing for WAA to overspread ENC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...We continue to monitor Thursday next week for the potential for showers and strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. The upper level pattern has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours with a strong positively tilted trough in the Plains taking on a more negative tilt as it tracks over the Eastern Seaboard on Thurs. At the surface, a wave of low pressure will develop along an approaching cold front and deepen as it tracks NE'wards into the Northeastern CONUS while the aforementioned cold front tracks across the region. EFI and machine learning severe probs are highest in the Mid-Atlantic and SE US Thursday. In addition to this, latest guidance continues suggesting this frontal passage occurs Thurs afternoon and evening. The majority of deterministic models and ensembles favor this afternoon and evening progression of the front. The outlier at this point is the ECMWF AI model, which stubbornly continues to show a morning passage. However, looking at the EPS AI, the deterministic model seems to be an outlier even within the ensemble members, as the EPS AI mean wind directions suggest the later passage. Given the timing, sufficient instability and strong shear should be in place which would bring the potential for stronger thunderstorms to develop. For now it is too far out to determine coverage and severity of storms with this frontal passage.

An interesting development that has come to light is the potential for storms to develop behind the front (anafrontal precip. Should this occur, we would be more stable at the surface where convection would occur and this would decrease severe probs.

Regardless of what the instability looks like, we are forecasting gusty S/SW winds out ahead of the front, supported by ensemble and AI guidance. Current fcst calls for frequent gusts around 30 mph inland and 35-40 mph along the coast.

There is still a lot to unpack with this system that is 5 days out. We will continue to closely monitor the situation and give updates as more information becomes available.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mix of MVFR and IFR conditions across ENC terminals this afternoon as band of stratiform precipitation spreads across much of the southeastern coast ahead of a slow-moving front to our west, while weak low pressure lifts offshore. Overall upstream trends have shown predominantly MVFR with drops to IFR in heavier precipitation, and carry this in the near-term forecast for the next few hours. Conditions are expected to improve, rather quickly after 00-01z as low offshore departs and inland frontal boundary decays. VFR expected after 06z for all terminals, holding strong into Sunday with clear skies and north winds around 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR flight conditions should persist into early next week.

MARINE

# --- Update --- # Winds have been under-performing with weaker low centered offshore than guidance was previously suggesting. Have updated winds. Lower winds have allowed the cancellation of CA for Albemarle, Croatan, and Roanoke Sounds and the Alligator River.

Previous: A deepening low currently located offshore Cape Hatteras tracks NE'wards and departs the region tonight. This has resulted in persistent light to moderate rain and strengthening northerly winds. Current obs show wind gusts 20-30 knots across the region, with potential for gusts up to 35 knots near warmer Gulf Stream waters. The wind forecast has trended down a couple knots with the further passage of the coastal low, but all Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this afternoon.

Seas are currently 3-5 ft for nearshore waters, 5-7 ft for 20-60nm zones. Seas are expected to build a bit more, to 4-7 ft nearshore, 6-8 ft offshore later this evening. This low then quickly pushes off to the north and east tonight into Sunday allowing winds to back to a NW'rly direction and lower to 10-15 kts by Sun with gusts decreasing to 15-20 kts. Seas will continue to remain elevated across warmer Gulf Stream waters as well, but should lower below 6 ft for nearshore zones by Sun afternoon. As a result, this will end all SCA's across our waters by Sun afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure settling to our east will bring south/southwest winds at 5-15 kts from Sunday night into mid week next week. Next cold front moves through late week, with increasing winds and seas expected both ahead and behind it. This system is 5 days out which carries a higher level of uncertainty, but there is potential for gale force south/southwesterly gusts ahead of the front.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.