textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Areas of dense sea fog will continue along the coast this morning. Marine Dense Fog Advisories remain in effect until 10 AM this morning. Will continue to monitor the potential for DFAs for coastal areas early this morning.

Marginal threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of dense fog will continue along the coast through late morning and early afternoon.

2) Well above normal to near record conditions expected through mid next week with high pressure ridging offshore.

3) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected through late this morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cams, obs and satellite show widespread dense sea fog and low stratus persisting along the coast early this morning...gradually spreading a bit further inland. A weak backdoor cold front is currently bisecting the area and draped through the Pamlico Sound and Outer Banks. Guidance generally agrees that the front will stall across the Pamlico Sound, bisecting the forecast area, before lifting back northward later today. Expect vsbys to improve late morning and early afternoon as stronger SSW winds develop. Will continue to monitor the potential for DFAs for coastal counties this morning. Fog may redevelop tonight and Sunday morning until winds strengthen.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones during the afternoons, especially through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast. Approaching front Sunday and Monday may keep temps a few deg cooler, but still well above normal. After this front lifts back to the north, potentially even warmer conditions are likely to develop by mid next week ahead of a stronger frontal system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A weak front will enter the Carolinas Sunday and linger through Monday, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Modest instability and shear will support the threat for isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. SPC has most of the area in a Marginal Svr risk (mainly along and west of Hwy 17). Will continue categorical pops Sun and Sun night and more scattered Mon. Rainfall amounts still do not look to exceed half an inch.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Along and east of Hwy 17 widespread IFR/LIFR conditions persist with a mix of dense fog/seafog and low stratus over the area. To the west of Hwy 17 and across all terminals (EWN/OAJ/ISO/PGV) some patchy fog has resulted in a mix of VFR and IFR conditions for now. Continue to expect IFR/LIFR flight cats to spread inland as a mix of dense fog (< 1SM) and low stratus (below 0.5 kft) gradually overspread the region. Given the latest guidance, expect this to happen across all terminals between 07-09Z with much if not all of ENC socked in with low stratus and dense fog. Cigs and vis will then gradually improve through the morning and should return to VFR by about 17Z Sat. Once conditions become VFR expect VFR conditions to continue to persist into Sat evening with a few clouds around 4 kft and 5-15 kt SW winds with a few gusts up near 20 kts Sat afternoon. Along the immediate coast, sea fog may linger well into tomorrow, and if it does eventually mix out, it could be very brief before it potentially redevelops tomorrow night.

Outlook: A cold front will move into the area on Sunday, leading to a change in the weather pattern, but also bringing with it an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. This risk may linger into early next week. Once this front pushes through the area it will likely stall near the region continuing to bring chances for sub-VFR conditions to ENC Mon and Tue before widespread VFR conditions officially return on Wed.

MARINE

Latest obs show light winds 10 kt or less with seas 2-4 ft with high pressure offshore. Pleasant boating conditions will continue today with SSW winds increasing to 10-15 kt this afternoon, then 10-20 kt tonight. SW winds will mix well over the warmer central waters late tonight, increasing to 15-20 kt gusting to 25 kt with seas building locally up to 6 ft. Issued SCA for the central waters.

Sea fog persists along the coast early this morning. Guidance shows widespread vsbys 1 nm or less persisting through mid morning. Marine DFAs continue through 10 AM, but may need to be extended through early afternoon.

Outlook: The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front moves into the area, and SW winds will increase to 10-20 kt with seas 3-6 ft. SCA conditions likely to continue for the central waters through Sunday night for gusts to 25 kt and seas around 6 ft. A stronger front will likely cross the waters in the middle of next week. SW winds will strengthen ahead of the front Wed and Wed night with SCA conditions likely.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 03/07 (today)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1974 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/2022 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/1908 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 85/1974 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ131-135- 150-152-154-156-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154.