textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes to previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday.

2) Drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through the end of the week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday.

3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal to near record temperatures continue to be favored into this weekend thanks to a warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This should equate to highs in the upper 80s to near 90 each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Temperatures each day may be moderated some by convective debris clouds, but the only real impact here is that it may lower the risk of records being tied or broken at any one location. For perspective, normal highs for mid-April are in the low to mid 70s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. We won't be anywhere near those normal values as this stretch of anomalous warmth continues to drag on. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information.

A weak shortwave moving through on Friday may bring a few isolated showers to the area. QPF is only a few hundredths at best with areas surrounding the Albemarle Sound having the best chance at seeing precipitation (15-25%).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). To give a little more perspective, most climate sites in the Southeast U.S., including here in ENC, haven't seen measurable precipitation in almost 10 days during what would normally be a wetter time of year. Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with meaningful rainfall unlikely through the end of the week. Looking further out in time, longer-range guidance suggests this dry pattern may last at least another 1-2 weeks, with a pattern change possible by late April or early May.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. An Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect today, and additional statements or fire weather headlines may be needed through the week and into the weekend. Of note, increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions beginning today on all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the upcoming weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There may be just enough low-level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While guidance remains consistent in this potential, rainfall amounts do not look overly impressive or "drought-denting" in any way. The latest ensemble guidance suggests about 0.10"-0.30" of rain. While instability currently looks modest, at best, any thunderstorms that develop could produce higher amounts, but this would be over smaller areas. While instability is currently forecast to be modest, deep layer shear of 50-60kt would be supportive of organized convection. Machine learning guidance shows a fairly weak signal for severe thunderstorm potential, but we'll continue to monitor this risk as the weekend draws closer.

Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s.

AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with high pressure offshore and periods of high clouds. Similar to today, SW winds will gust 15-25 kt Thu afternoon.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. An approaching front on Sunday will likely bring the strongest winds of the period and renewed shower and thunderstorm chances.

MARINE

This southwesterly flow regime will continue through the week across all ENC waters. Latest obs show the strongest winds across the Gulf Stream with the Diamond Shoals buoy continuing to gust to 25+ kt. Winds will lessen a little overnight as our thermal gradient weakens but will increase back to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt tomorrow through early Friday. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the coastal waters between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout. A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible across all coastal waters and sounds through early Friday, but they're expected to be less frequent.

Seas are generally 3-5 ft with the exception of the waters off of Cape Hatteras where Diamond Shoals has been reporting 5-6 ft. Seas of this magnitude will persist through early Friday.

Outlook: Southwest winds will increase again this weekend ahead of a cold front. The latest forecast has SW winds reaching 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt during the first half of Sunday. As the front passes, winds will veer to the N and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Sunday night/early Monday with the potential for some Gale force gusts. Seas are expected to build to 4-6 ft in response, peaking early Monday. Scattered thunderstorms may occur with the front as well.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1917 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1985 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ154-156.