textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Canadian high pressure will keep things dry through Saturday.

2) A low pressure system will bring widespread beneficial rain and potentially a few thunderstorms to the area Sunday and Monday.

3) Well above normal temperatures are expected for inland areas next week.

MARINE...Monitoring the potential for hazardous marine conditions late Sunday through Monday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC will remain cool and dry today with highs ranging from the upper 30s along the OBX to the low 50s across SW zones. SW return flow will develop on Saturday as the high shifts offshore. This warming return flow and sunny skies for most of the day will warm temps into the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast and low 60s inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A low pressure system will track E across the Gulf states on Sunday and ENE near the coast of the Carolinas Sunday night/Monday. Guidance has continued to trend toward a weaker low. However, given moderate large-scale forcing, strong low- level convergence focused along the low and an associated warm front, and anomalous moisture, moderate rainfall rates and a few rumbles of thunder are expected. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of a widespread 1-2", and although probabilities of exceeding 1" of rain have increased slightly for the entire area, chances still fall within the 50-70% range. Similarly, chances of exceeding 2" have also increased, ranging from <5% west of HWY 17 to 30-35% just off the OBX. This will be beneficial rain for ENC with severe drought conditions across the coastal plain and abnormally dry conditions along the coast.

Of note, a risk of sea fog may develop within the moistening return flow ahead of Sunday's system. This primarily looks to be an impact along the Crystal Coast and Southern OBX Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Southerly low-mid level flow beneath anomalous ridging aloft should support an increased chance of above normal temperatures for much of next week. For reference, normal highs this time of year are in the upper 50s to low 60s, with normal lows in the 30s. The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day temperature outlook now shows a 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Pred VFR conditions and light winds expected through the period. Sct mid and high clouds early this morning will push off the coast, with skies clearing.

Outlook: VFR expected to prevail until later in the weekend when a low pressure system moving across the southern CONUS combines with a weak low forming off of the coast to bring some more unsettled weather to the area. Widespread rain expected Sunday and Sunday night. Ahead of the low, moist southwest winds over cooler waters could bring a period of sea fog concerns for the Crystal Coast Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE

Good boating conditions will persist through Saturday. Today, winds will be out of the NNW at 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt and 3-5 ft seas. As the high shifts offshore tomorrow, winds will back to the SW at 5-15 kt and seas will subside to 1-3 ft.

Outlook: A low moving near the coast of the Carolinas late this weekend will bring hazardous marine conditions starting Sunday evening. Winds will peak (25-30 kt) Sunday night/Monday but elevated seas may linger well into Tuesday. Winds have been slightly lowered as guidance continues to trend toward a weaker low, but a few rumbles of thunder will be possible Sunday afternoon through early Monday.

Of note, ahead of the low, moist southwest winds over cooler waters could bring a period of sea fog concerns for the coastal waters and inland sounds/rivers Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.