textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extended high surf advisory into this afternoon to account for lingering elevated seas.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy again today with gradually improving conditions into Thursday with a coastal low off the coast.

2) Hotter conditions return this weekend with next chance of precip early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool temps this morning with mid to upper 40s noted across the Coastal Plain and 50s noted closer to the coast bringing what feels more like fall than spring to ENC. This was notably below just about all available guidance and as such have trended highs today and lows tonight in a similar direction. A well defined low that had brought hazardous marine conditions and elevated surf to the OBX on Tue is currently noted about 200 miles to the SE of Morehead City this morning and has continued to meander S'wards while high pressure ridge continues to build in from the north. This has allowed for winds to ease and become light and variable inland with stronger winds noted along the immediate coast and OBX.

As we get further into the day today upper level trough in the Mid-Atlantic digs further south eventually cutting off this morning and then pulls away from the area tonight into Thurs. At the surface, this will allow the previously mentioned surface low to meander offshore today before pushing out to sea tonight while deepening. While the pressure gradient will remain tight, it will be weaker than yesterday. On top of the tighter pressure gradient, inland areas will be well mixed as well allowing for widespread 20-30 mph NE'rly wind gusts across ENC later this morning and afternoon with the strongest gusts across the OBX. Seas look to remain elevated through the morning. So while borderline, have extended the high surf advisory into this afternoon to account for any lingering swell, though the main impacts would likely be across the more vulnerable locations across Hatteras Island.

Temps are slightly warmer today getting into the 80s inland and 70s along the OBX. As we get into tonight high pressure builds overhead allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to ease. With a dry airmass overhead expect clear skies and thus another great radiational cooling night. With this in mind have gone on the low end of guidance below the NBM. Lows tonight get into the low 50s inland to low 60s across the OBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...As we get into Friday and this weekend, low offshore is forecast to push further out to sea with high pressure becoming anchored off the coast this weekend. This will bring steady S-SW'rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses, and warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the 90s inland and 80s along the coast and OBX bringing a return to more summer like temps. Long term probabilistic guidance continues to suggest a probability of a Moderate or higher HeatRisk to be about 60-80%+ on Saturday/Sunday across portions of ENC, so those sensitive to heat issues are encouraged to keep an eye on the forecast over the next few days. Next potential frontal passage looks to occur early next week with typical longer range timing and location uncertainty with this feature. THis could bring our next best chance at some wetting rainfall.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the period as high pressure builds overhead and brings ample dry air to ENC. With this in mind, the main weather impact across all routes will be the wind forecast. Low pressure that had brought strong winds to ENC yesterday continues to meander offshore today. As of this update this has resulted in 15-20 kt NE'rly gusts across the OBX with lighter winds across inland areas. Expect this to continue into late this morning before wind gusts increase to about 15-20 kts across all inland routes as the area mixes rather efficiently. Winds then ease for good tonight as the low pulls away from ENC with light and variable winds forecast tonight. Given the dry airmass not expecting any MIFG or low clouds tonight either.

Outlook: High pressure will gradually push offshore by the end of the week, with winds becoming S'rly by late Thursday and into Friday. Winds will remain light into this weekend. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period with high pressure in control of the ambient weather.

MARINE

Latest obs show the surface low that had brought gale force winds and hazardous seas to our waters on Tuesday is now meandering about 200 miles to the SE of ENC this morning. This has allowed for the pressure gradient to weaken some as high pressure ridging builds in from the NW thus ending the last of the gales this morning. Latest obs show widespread 15-25 kt NE winds with gusts up to 30 kts noted along our coastal waters with 10-15 kt NE winds with gusts up to 20 kts noted inland. This has resulted in the end of SCA's across all inland waters with ongoing SCA's persisting across our nearshore coastal waters. Seas this morning have generally remained around 7-11 ft near shore and 10-15 ft across the offshore waters. As the low slowly meanders away from the area winds should continue to ease today and tonight with NE'rly winds falling to 10-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts at times by Thurs morning. Seas will also be on the downtrend later today and tonight as the aforementioned low pulls away falling to 5-8 ft by tonight. While this will keep SCA's out across all our coastal waters conditions will have markedly improved since yesterday.

Outlook: A return to more typical warm-season patterns late in the week and through this weekend with south to southwesterly flow and localized surges in the late afternoon and evening associated with thermal gradients.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.