textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure shifts offshore tonight. A cold front will then cross through the area late Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds offshore Christmas day and will remain in place through late week. Another frontal system will move through the region this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 3 PM Mon...With high pressure right overhead this evening, clear skies, and nearly calm winds, good radiational cooling conditions are expected to develop with temps quickly cooling into the 30s. As high pressure shifts offshore overnight ahead of a cold front increasing high clouds from this system will help curb cooling, and keep temps mostly in the 30s overnight with a levening off or rising temps towards sunrise. The typical sheltered locations in the vicinity of the Croatan, Hoffman, and Holly shelter along with Pungo Lakes region will drop to around freezing.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/

As of 3 PM Mon...Scattered areas of light rain will move into northern NC Tuesday morning as a cold front slides south into the Carolinas. Limited moisture with this front will result in only very light or trace amounts of rain, with coverage looking to be fairly scattered with only a 20-40% chance, highest north of the Hwy 264 corridor. SW to W winds will rapidly develop Tuesday morning and gust to around 20-25 mph, advecting in warmer temperatures, and resulting in highs in the upper 50s to low 60s despite the widespread cloudiness.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 3 PM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Mostly dry conditions expected into this weekend with only some minor chances for light rain this weekend.

- Above normal conditions expected, with highs in the 65-70 Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Behind a weak cold front Tuesday night a stronger surface high will develop across the Gulf Coast Christmas Eve through this weekend, which will push highs up well into the 60s, and possibly into the 70s as ENC will be under wswrly flow. The next chance of rain looks to hold off until this weekend, but a soaking/wetting rain remain unlikely as flow will be generally zonal through the period with the GOM cut off.

AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 6:15 PM Monday...VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours with light to calm winds and scattered high clouds. Tomorrow, a cold front will approach the area and may produce some light rain or sprinkles across northern portions of the CWA during the afternoon hours. Confidence was not high enough to include a mention of precip in the TAFs, but PGV and EWN would be the TAF sites most likely to see rain (15-20% chance). BKN clouds at 3500 to 4500 ft will move in late morning then diminish to a few mid-level clouds by the evening. Southwest winds will be around 10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt during the afternoon, and there is a possibility of 35 kt of low-level wind shear at 20,000 ft for PGV and EWN (mainly between 15-17z).

Outlook: Generally quiet Tuesday night through the end of the week with VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

As of 3 PM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Gales over the Gulf Stream waters Tuesday afternoon and evening, with small craft conditions for Pamlico sound and the northern coastal waters.

Tonight...Winds will continue to weaken through tonight as high pres approaches. Seas currently in the 6+ ft range south of Oregon Inlet will also subside through late this afternoon into early evening.

Tuesday...Cold front drops into ENC through the day, and wrly to swrly wind gradient inc rapidly in the afternoon. Gale conditions are likely now for the warm Gulf Stream waters south of Oregon Inlet, with gusts of 35-40 kt developing. For Pamlico sound, model soundings indicate a stout but shallow marine inversion in place, though marginal SCA conditions appear likely, esp for sern portions of the sound towards Ocracoke and srn Hatteras Island where sound temperatures are a bit warmer. SCAs in effect for Pamlico sound and the northern waters north of Oregon Inlet. Seas will rebuild rapidly Tue afternoon south of C Hatteras into the 6-7 ft range, with choppy periodicity of 8 seconds or so

Wednesday through Friday...Improving conditions expected Christmas Eve, with decent boating conditions persisting through Christmas Day. Increasing swrly flow Thu night into early Fri may bring SCA to the ctrl/srn outer waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for AMZ152-154-156-158.