textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure dominates the region through early this week before another frontal system brings the next chance of rain late Tuesday through Wednesday. Cool and dry high pressure then builds in behind this system Thanksgiving through the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 3 AM Sun...Sfc cold front has pushed off the srn coast early this morning, with a few stray anafrontal showers hugging the Crystal Coast. High pressure ridges into the area Sunday with clearing skies after morning stratus dissipates. Temps will be closer to climo today, generally in the 65-70 degree range, with low 60s OBX adjacent to the cooler waters.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 3 AM Sun...Reinforcing cold front will usher in an even cooler and drier airmass tonight, with temps dropping back into the upper 30s interior to mid 40s coast (around 50 OBX). Drier airmass and light nnwrly breezes will preclude any fog formation.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 3 AM Sun...Cool and dry high pressure will Monday and slides offshore on Tuesday. Temps will be near normal Monday and Monday night, but southerly return flow will bring warming temps on Tue through midweek with highs back into the 70s and lows in the 50s to near 60.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Next chance for rain arrives Tue eve and continues into Wed as a shortwave trough and attendant cold front approaches the area. Latest trends are unfortunately a bit drier with this frontal passage, as bulk of energy lifts north and west of ENC. Attm instability is quite meager, so only slght chc thunder mention in the fcst. Best chance for any showers/iso storms will be Wed afternoon just ahead of the main frontal passage.

Thansgiving through Saturday...Much cooler and drier airmass build in, with coolest readings of the season possible. Thanksgiving Day will see a return back to 50s for max T's, with readings near freezing at night. Low 50s at best for highs on Fri, with lows well into the 20s for the mainland Fri night, with 30s to near 40 OBX zones.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 130 AM Sun...

Key Messages

- Low stratus lingers this morning, gradually clearing from north to south after sunrise.

- VFR conditions return with clearing skies late this morning

Cold front has pushed south of the terminals early this morning with any lingering shower activity now south of terminals. Main aviation concern is stratus as low level moisture remains pooled under the frontal inversion. Cigs will be MVFR to IFR through the morning before returning to VFR later this morning as clouds scour out with dry air building in with high pressure from the west. LAMP guidance seems to be scouring out cigs a little too aggressively, and leaned towards a more pessimistic HREF closer in line to the 00z TAF cycle.

Skies become clear tomorrow afternoon with variable winds of 5 kt or less. VFR remains likely through 06z.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions expected through early this coming week as cooler high pressure builds into the region. Another frontal system will bring the next chances for precip mid week.

MARINE

As of 3 AM Sun...Cold frontal passage has brought winds around to nrly in the 10-20 kt range with seas of 3-5 ft.

Today...Nrly flow eases and backs nwrly as high builds in. Seas subside to 2-4 ft. Tonight winds start out light in the 5-10 kt range, but then reinforcing front will push through late tonight with winds ramping back up to 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft. May see some ocnl gusts to 25 kt, especially over the warmer Gulf waters, but not frequent or widespread enough to warrant any SCA headlines.

Monday...Reinforcing high pres builds back in early in the week with winds and seas diminishing. Winds veer erly Mon night in the 5-10 kt range and seas 2-4 ft.

Tuesday through Friday...High pressure slides offshore with S to SWly return flow developing. Could see SCA conditions developing as early as Tuesday night across portions of the waters, mainly across the offshore waters near the Gulf Stream, ahead of a cold front. The winds will peak on Wed just ahead of the front moving through. The front is progged to push across the waters Wednesday night with NW post frontal flow in the 10-20 kt range, possibly gusting to 25 kt or higher for a time and inducing SCA headlines through the rest of the work week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.