textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Special Weather Statement for black ice has been issued for tonight through tomorrow morning everywhere except Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands

Increased chances for a wintry mix Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Best chances for minor impacts will be along and west of Highway 17.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Travel will remain treacherous through much of the week due to black ice and lingering snow cover.

2) Confidence is increasing for Eastern North Carolina to see a wintry mix Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The main concern is light ice accretion across the coastal plain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Impacts from this past weekend's winter storm will continue through much of the week as black ice and remaining snow pack will make travel hazardous, particularly during overnight and morning hours when temperatures are expected to be fall below freezing. This cycle of melting during the day and refreezing overnight will continue for much of the week before another shot of frozen P-types moves into the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Special Weather Statement has been issued for this evening through Wednesday morning to highlight the potential for black ice on the roads. Future SPSs will likely be needed for much of the remaining week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Models are in fairly good agreement on a low pressure system moving across the northern Great Lakes and Quebec and dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley and across the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas by Thursday morning.

Precipitation is likely to begin overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. There is a low probability (less than 10%) that this may start off as a low-impact wintry mix (especially across northern zones) before transitioning to a cold rain for much of Wednesday. Rainfall totals will be a respectable half to one inch, which will significantly aid in eroding the snowpack in place across ENC. Temperatures will moderate through the day into the low to upper 40s.

As cold air begins to catch the system, expect a period of mixed winter precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning everywhere except the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret County. Model soundings depict boundary layer temperatures falling the quickest while a warm nose aloft hangs on for a few hours, resulting in a thermal profile favorable for freezing rain for a few hours. By mid-morning on Thursday, P-Types may all transition to snow, but PoPs will be coming to an end shortly thereafter. While some flurries can't be ruled out for most of the coastal plain, areas north of Highway 264 are those most likely to see a few tenths of an inch of snow. A light glaze of ice is possible for much of the CWA with a 30-40% chance of more than a tenth of an inch of ice accretion roughly along Highway 17 (locally higher amounts possible).

Daytime highs will moderate through the remainder of the week but overnight lows will remain below freezing each night, keeping the chances for black ice around through the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Pred VFR conditions continue through much of the early morning as high clouds slowly lower over ENC. As we get towards daybreak we will see lowering ceilings and increasing rain chances out ahead of an approaching frontal system. Current forecast suggests MVFR ceilings quickly overspread the TAF terminals between 12-15Z and all of ENC by 15-18Z with IFR ceilings quick to follow by about midday. Rain over the snow pack could also aid in producing fog with lower vsbys through the day on Wed. Winds expected to generally be light SW 5-10kt through Wednesday morning, then a slow moving front will push south across the area during the afternoon with wind becoming Nly behind the front. A moderate LLJ expected to bring LLWS concerns early this morning. Early thursday morning freezing light rain and snow chances pick up behind the front. Introduced -FZRA for PGV with this update, with other terminals likely to be added on with the next TAF update.

Outlook: Another weak weather system will push across the area Wednesday night into early Thursday behind the front that will maintain sub-VFR conditions in light rain with a 40-50% chance for a change over to wintry precipitation. Predominantly VFR conditions return late Thursday and expected to persist through the weekend.

MARINE

We are finally headline free across all marine zones. SW winds at 10-20 kt will veer to the NW tomorrow as a cold front crosses the area. Seas will remain at 3-5 ft during this period.

Outlook: SCA winds will return early Thursday with a surge of northerly winds behind the front. Winds are forecast to peak Thursday afternoon/early evening at 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt (highest near the Gulf Stream waters). Seas will build in response, peaking at 5-8 ft Thursday evening. Conditions will improve by Friday afternoon, but this will be short-lived as strong NW winds (strong SCA to Gale force) develop Friday night with a passing Arctic front.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.