textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Small Craft Advisory across the Pamlico Sound has been cancelled.

Small craft advisory across the central waters has been extended to 1PM Thursday and have added a small craft advisory across the northern coastal waters which goes from 1AM to 4PM Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will track across the area today bringing a quick round of rain this morning into this afternoon.

2) Low pressure is forecast to pass over, or just south of, the area this weekend bringing another round of rain and potentially a few thunderstorms.

AVIATION...A period of low level wind shear expected through early this morning at all TAF sites ahead of a frontal system that will affect the area today.

MARINE...Increased risk of hazardous conditions for small craft through Thursday morning mainly along the coastal waters.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure system is currently tracking east across the Northeast this morning with its associated cold front currently analyzed well to the northwest near the Appalachians. This front will continue to quickly track across the Mid- Atlantic through the day today eventually pushing offshore by tonight. Out ahead of this front, ongoing WAA remains in place keeping us rather mild tonight with temps generally ranging from the upper 40s to 50s across ENC as of this update. Temps are not forecast to fall much ranging from the low 40s to mid 50s this morning resulting in a rather pleasant start to the day outside of the continued increasing cloud cover out ahead of the approaching front.

Forecast calls for increasing low-mid level moisture and modest lift along the advancing frontal zone which should support several hours of light to moderate rain during the day Wednesday, especially during the morning and early afternoon hours. Latest guidance suggest light showers begin to overspread our north and western zones near or just after daybreak with rain then progressing SE'wards through the morning and afternoon before pushing offshore by tonight. Given the progressive nature of the system, rainfall amounts should be light (0.10-0.25"). Do expect to clear out behind the front tonight as well.

Highs today look to once again get into the 60s inland and 50s along the OBX, though with widespread cloudcover and increasing chances of rain will need to monitor temperature trends in case we end up slightly cooler than currently forecast. Either way temps likely max out by mid to late morning across the region and then gradually begin to lower tonight with lows getting into the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dont think there has been much change in the guidance since the previous update as there remains agreement that a rather progressive mid level shortwave currently near the California Coast will track east in the coming days and move across the Carolinas over the weekend potentially phasing with a northern stream shortwave allowing for deepening of this low after it pushes off the coast. Guidance continues to keep a rather suppressed low, with the system tracking either just north or across ENC on Sun into Mon. This more suppressed trend has continued to gain more support within the ensemble and deterministic guidance so confidence is increasing that this more suppressed track is more likely than not. Regardless, even with a more suppressed track cold air is rather limited in nature so not expecting any P-Type issues with this system. As a matter of fact we could potentially see some thunder with this low, primarily across the offshore waters though with a more southern track instability advection may be rather limited. Either way, the trend favors a cold rain Sunday into Sunday night.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through early this morning with increasing mid and high clouds. There will likely be a period through early this morning where low level wind shear increases to 40-50 kts near 2000 feet with strengthening LLJ ahead of the approaching cold front. Guidance still favors increasing rain chances between 12-19z ahead of the approaching cold front, resulting in cigs dropping to at least MVFR later this morning through early afternoon. IFR probs still look low, but a brief period will be possible (esp at OAJ and EWN). All terminals will return to VFR prior to 00z as cooler and drier air sweeps in behind the front.

Outlook: VFR expected to prevail until later in the weekend when a low pressure system moving across the southern CONUS combines with a weak low forming off of the coast to bring some more unsettled weather to the area.

MARINE

Made a few changes to the headlines on this update but overall the spirit of the forecast remains. Ongoing 15-25 kt SW'rly winds with gusts over 30 kts can be found along our coastal waters from N Topsail Beach to Oregon Inlet mainly 10+ miles offshore with lighter winds, generally at 10-20 kts found elsewhere across our waters this morning. Now while there may be a few brief gusts up towards 25 kts across the Pamlico Sound, given the strong marine inversion in place, don't think we will see enough of a duration or spatial extend of these stronger gusts. So, have cancelled the small craft advisory here. Elsewhere ongoing SCA's will remain in place into Thursday. Seas have begun to build mainly south of Oregon Inlet as well to 4-6 ft. A cold front begins to approach through the day bringing widespread light to moderate rain and weakening winds. As a matter of fact winds may fall below SCA criteria for a brief time today across all our waters.

However, as this cold front then tracks across the region tonight, winds shift around to the north and bring a renewed risk of 25kt winds for all coastal waters. There may be a brief period across the Pamlico Sound where gusts get up to 25 kts, but the duration seems limited, so did not add a SCA here for the N'rly surge tonight. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across our southern waters through Wednesday night. This covers both the pre- frontal and the post- frontal risk of 25kt winds. Similarly for the central waters, have elected to keep SCA's up though Thursday morning. While there is a slightly longer time between surges, think it is close enough to just extend the ongoing SCA here. Have also added a SCA starting late tonight for our northern waters given this risk for gusty N'rly winds. For the coastal waters, seas of 4-7 ft are expected in the wake of the cold front.

Outlook: Low pressure is forecast to track east across the Southeast U.S. this weekend, emerging off the coast Sunday or Sunday night. Guidance continues to differ on the strength and track of this low. In general, confidence is moderate to high regarding the potential for 25kt winds, but low regarding something stronger.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ156-158.