textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Limited PoPs tonight given lower QPF.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will cross the forecast area tonight into THursday morning, which will bring the next wave of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected with this system.

2) Warming and mostly dry into early next week, there is a low end potential for record high temps this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...No real changes in forecast thinking as we continue to monitor the approaching front coming in from the west and the low pressure system to our south. The aforementioned low will continue off to the northeast tonight with isolated showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder skirting the OBX this evening and tonight as the low makes its closest point of approach, which will be about 100NM east of Cape Hatteras. The low will then be well to the north and east by Thursday morning. At the same time, a weak cold front will be tracking across the Carolinas tonight into Thursday morning before pushing offshore late Thurs morning. This system will have decent dynamics to work with. However, a real lack of moisture associated with this front will be noted, especially with the low offshore robbing any moisture this front would have to work with. On top of that, with the fronts current timing, there will be limited instability so not expecting a thunder threat across inland areas and only a isolated threat along our coastal waters.

QPF and PoP values continue to remain low overall given latest Hi- Res and AI guidance. Kept SChc PoPs across inland zones and SChc to low end chance PoP's along the OBX though this may be aggressive as a good portion of the area could remain precip free. This uncertainty is handled with PoPs in the 15% range to account for the low end chance we do see more widespread precip than currently anticipated. QPF values themselves generally remain a tenth of an inch or less across just about all of ENC meaning appreciable rainfall amounts would be far an few in between. Behind this front slightly below normal temps are then forecast on Thurs and Fri. Models are trying to show precip chances behind the front, but dry air aloft will make this difficult to materialize. Cut NBM PoPs to be no higher than 24% to keep slight chance wording in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure transits across the Eastern Seaboard behind the mid-week front and sets up offshore over the weekend. This will allow for S'rly flow to set up and for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA this weekend. As a result, a warming and drying trend is forecast into early next week. MaxTs back to the mid 80s Sat, upper 80s to low 90s inland Sun, Mon, and Tue which will be the story into early next week. While we will likely remain below record high temps this weekend and into early next week we will be close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A moistening southeasterly flow will continue into tonight, and with light winds after sunset may lead to a short window of BR/FG potential. For now, the TAFs will reflect some 3-5SM potential, but not show anything lower as confidence is moderate regarding low stratus vs BR/FG. Additionally, an approaching cold front may lead to improved mixing of the low-levels by sunrise Thursday, which should tend to lower the risk of reduced VIS. However, the risk of sub-VFR CIGs in stratus may continue into Thursday morning. SCT SHRA may accompany the front as it moves through, but the risk of TSRA appears low (5-10% chance).

Behind the front, modestly gusty northwest winds up to 20kt are expected. CIGs are expected to improve back to VFR as well.

Outlook: We quickly transition back to a summer-like regime by the end of the week, and moving into the weekend. This means a daily seabreeze with isolated SHRA and TSRA possible, and a bump up in winds. However, at the moment, there isn't any one day that has a higher risk of TSRA than any other.

MARINE

East to Southeast winds at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts are currently noted across our waters as high pressure remains off to the north and east and a low pressure well to the south continues to track NE'wards. This low will bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms to our waters this evening into tonight. Seas are generally around 3-5 ft along the near shore coastal waters and 4-6 ft seas noted out past 20 NM. High pressure continues to push further out to sea as the aforementioned low tracks NE'wards about 100NM east of Cape Hatteras while a cold front approaches from the west. Winds become S to SW'rly tonight at 5-10 kts with 3-5 ft seas near shore and higher seas beyond 20 NM. Cold front then pushes across our waters Thurs morning bringing yet another round of showers, storms and some strengthening NW winds to our waters. WInds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds currently forecast to remain under SCA criteria for Thursday's front. However, as the front approaches, aforementioned low pressure system works NE'ward away from the area sending some decent swell toward our coast. As of this writing there looks to be a low end chance to see 6+ ft seas, mainly from 10+ NM out across our central waters starting Thursday afternoon. While typically this would be enough to promote SCAs, given the uncertainty in seas, elected to punt this decision to the overnight shift.

Outlook (Thursday night through the weekend): High pressure sets up offshore after the midweek front/low, allowing for calming seas and relaxing winds with a mostly dry and warming forecast lasting into the weekend. Sat SW winds 10-20kt, Sun best boating day of the weekend with winds a little calmer.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.