textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories issued for waters north of Ocracoke Inlet Monday morning and afternoon.

Aviation Disco Updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend.

2) Well below normal temperatures expected late next week and weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler airmass continues to build into the area behind yesterday's cold front as high pressure expands in from the west. Today will be the coolest day of the week until next weekend (see the next key message) with highs in the low to mid 60s. With a second cold front moving through tonight, it will be difficult for winds to remain calm, and as a result radiational cooling should be reduced. No widespread frost is expected tonight, although some patchy frost can't be ruled out in sheltered locations.

Monday night continues to look like the best candidate for more widespread frost as skies remain clear and winds inland will likely be calm as the high crests overhead. Continued nudging overnight lows down from NBM, closer to NBM 10th percentile. Added patchy frost for some inland locales Monday night. Tuesday night there remains a bit of uncertainty on how effectively we radiationally cool as the forecast calls for higher cloud cover than Monday night. With that being said, decided to stick with NBM for now. However, if we end up being clear Tuesday night, another round of frost is possible.

Beyond this period, guidance continues to depict an increasingly unsettled pattern as complex mid-level low deepens over the eastern CONUS and likely drives coastal low development off the east coast. Evolution and strength of the low remain uncertain, but it will at least bring our best chances of rain for the period and breezier westerly winds across the Outer Banks. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continues to strongly hint at unseasonable cold temperatures next weekend behind the low pressure system. While there is inherent uncertainty 7 days out, CPC does have a slight risk of much below normal temperatures for our coastal plain counties next weekend. This will be worth monitoring for any freeze headlines, as the end of the growing season is Nov 25 for our land forecast zones.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure remains firmly in control over area terminals this evening with mainly clear skies and light and variable winds. Surface trough will transit the region overnight bringing a shift and uptick in winds out of the northwest after midnight, but before them cannot completely rule out some brief and very patchy fog at some locations in the near term. Tomorrow, increased mixing brings stronger NW winds at around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at times, especially for near-shore sites.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected with much drier airmass and high pressure over the region through midweek. Approaching storm system at the end of the week brings an increase in rain chances, some gusty winds and sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

NW winds 5-15 kt today, with seas 3-5 ft. Main feature of interest is a second dry cold front expected to transit the waters tonight into early Monday morning, with guidance trending upward in SW to W winds ahead of the front at 15-20 kt with higher gusts. This surge also looks marginal for gusts, but considering higher antecedent seas it will likely be enough to boost seas back above 6 feet for much of Monday. Therefore,kept the SCA for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook: Benign boating conditions expected through the period with NW winds backing W to SW by mid-week ahead of the next storm system expected to impact the region beyond Wednesday. Magnitude of impacts remains uncertain but at least SCA conditions and elevated seas are likely for most waters into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150- 152-154.