textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Canadian high pressure system builds in from the north and west bringing a few days of dry weather and cooler temperatures to ENC.

2) Low pressure is forecast to impact the area this weekend bringing another round of rain and potentially a few thunderstorms.

3) Increasing signal for above normal temperatures next week.

MARINE...Elevated seas to linger into this afternoon north of Ocracoke Inlet.

Monitoring the potential for marine impacts this weekend into early next week associated with low pressure moving through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A broad area of high pressure will continue to overspread the Carolinas over the next couple of days, keeping a very dry airmass in place. The dry airmass plus cold low-level thicknesses and modest CAA should support a continuation of below normal temperatures through Friday night. High pressure will shift offshore on Saturday, with a gradually warming return flow developing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weakening shortwave is forecast to traverse the Southeast U.S. this weekend, shifting offshore on Monday. Meanwhile, an associated area of low pressure is forecast to track ENE from Alabama to North Carolina, with guidance now strongly clustered on a track that takes the low along, or just south, of the ENC coastline. In addition to good clustering with the track, guidance also continues to be well-clustered with a weaker low (1005-1010mb). Barring significant model changes, these trends now favor weaker winds and a lowered thunderstorm risk. Despite the weaker nature of the low, moderate large-scale forcing, strong low-level convergence focused along the low and an associated warm front, and anomalous moisture should support a period of moderate rainfall rates at times. Guidance is now strongly clustered in a rainfall range of 0.75"-2.00". For the area, at large, ensemble guidance gives a 50- 70% chance of rainfall exceeding 1", but only a 10-20% chance of exceeding 2". The lower risk of 2"+ is likely due to a lack of stronger large-scale forcing plus only limited instability. Despite the southern track, the risk of wintry precipitation continues to look very low.

Of note, a risk of sea fog may develop within the moistening return flow ahead of Sunday's system. This primarily looks to be an impact along the Crystal Coast and Southern OBX Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Southerly low-mid level flow beneath anomalous ridging aloft should support an increased chance of above normal temperatures for much of next week. For reference, normal highs this time of year are in the upper 50s to low 60s, with normal lows in the 30s. The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day temperature outlook now shows a 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with only sct mid and high clouds. N winds and dry air will inhibit the fog threat tonight.

Outlook: VFR expected to prevail until later in the weekend when a low pressure system moving across the southern CONUS combines with a weak low forming off of the coast to bring some more unsettled weather to the area. Ahead of the low, moist southwest winds over cooler waters could bring a period of sea fog concerns for the Crystal Coast Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE

Winds have laid down quicker than forecast across area waters, but elevated seas of 4-6ft look to linger into late this afternoon. In light of this, the ongoing Small Craft Advisories north of Ocracoke Inlet will remain in effect until 4pm.

In general, high pressure building in should lead to a reduced risk of impacts for the marine community through Saturday. The one caveat is that there will be a weak cold front that will move through the waters tonight, and this should give a short bump up in winds and seas. For now, conditions look to remain below the threshold for additional marine headlines.

Outlook: Low pressure is forecast to track ENE from Alabama to North Carolina this weekend, then emerge off the coast of ENC by Monday morning. Guidance continue to be clustered on a weaker low (1005- 1010mb), which translates to weaker winds. Confidence is moderate to high regarding a period of 25-30kt E to NE winds with this low, while confidence remains low regarding the potential for gales.

Of note, ahead of the low, moist southwest winds over cooler waters could bring a period of sea fog concerns for the coastal waters and inland sounds/rivers Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 152-154.