textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Decreased winds in the long term (beyond mid week). This does Not change the expected high impacts expected for portions of the Outer Banks and marine areas this coming week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A slow moving nor'easter taking shape well off the coast brings a long duration wind and swell event with high impacts for parts of Outer Banks and adjacent waters well into the work week.

2) It has become drastically cooler behind yesterday's fropa, along with continued breezy north to northeast winds. These cooler than avg conditions continue through the week.

Marine: Gale Warnings continue in effect. Prolonged period of strong winds and high seas as nor'easter lingers offshore through at least mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Disorganized area of low pressure is forming along the offshore frontal boundary. There continues to be high confidence that the offshore low will develop into a potential nor'easter and strengthen while lingering well off the Carolina coast through mid week. Strong winds, high waves, and coastal flooding as well as extremely dangerous marine conditions are expected. What is more uncertain is where the eventual track and strength of the low will be beyond Tuesday, as is often the case with a low pressure system that has not become organized yet.

As the low finally becomes to take shape and organize over the next 24 hrs, a better handle on where and when it tracks will become more certain. There is some concern for the low to deepen somewhat rapidly and shift further west, to a position that is not so far off the OBX. This bears some weight, as a cluster of solutions from the AIFS Ens indicate, but is a lower likelihood at this point. Some of the CAMs continue to hint at this solution and would lead to higher winds, potentially in the storm force range Tue into mid week. For now have cont to forecast a middle-of- the-road solution.

Gusty winds cont on the OBX, and have cont the wind adv here. Have dropped the wind adv for Mainland Dare and Downeast Carteret, as the stronger winds will be confined to the OBX going forward.

2-4 foot above ground level coastal flooding will be possible with minor to moderate impacts throughout the Outer Banks, Core Banks and Downeast Carteret County. Higher values will be on the OBX ocean side, whereas the lower end values on the soundside.

Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for Cape Lookout and points north through the OBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler air mass that has advected in will remain with us through at least mid week with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.

As the low meanders offshore, some wrap around rain showers may occasionally sneak back onshore, with best chances on the OBX over the next couple of days.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

An area of low pressure is located about 400 miles SE of Cape Hatteras this evening. This low is forecast to deepen overnight as it lifts slowly north. A tightening gradient between the low and inland high pressure should continue to support gusty north to northeast winds at all TAF sites over the next 24+ hours. That said, at KPGV, KISO, and KOAJ, the boundary layer may stabilize just enough to limit the frequency of 20kt+ gusts overnight. As mixing deepens on Monday, the frequency of gusts should increase once again. Closer to the coast, KEWN and KMRH will likely see more frequent 20kt+ gusts overnight. At KMRH, gusts of 30-35kt will be common. Of note, winds aloft are forecast to be around 40kt over KOAJ as surface winds potentially decrease to around 10kt, supporting a marginal risk of LLWS impacts there. Elsewhere, conditions are even less supportive of LLWS, and I have left this out of the remaining TAF sites.

With drier air filtering in, mostly VFR conditions are expected overnight. On Monday, low-level moisture is forecast to increase as the low begins to lift north and get slightly closer to ENC. This should allow stratus offshore to edge west, with MVFR CIGs potentially reaching as far west as KEWN and KMRH.

Outlook (Mon night through Fri): VFR and continued breezy conditions are expected to continue next week as the offshore low remains well east of the coast and high pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.

MARINE

Latest obs show northerly winds of 25-30kt sustained, with peak gusts of 30-40kt. Seas continue 10-14 ft closest to shore and 12-18ft likely offshore. These northerly winds will continue through the first half of Monday at these speeds, then inc slightly in the afternoon and Mon evening to 30-35 kt sustained, gusting up to around 45+ kt, though should remain below storm force even in the outer waters.

Very dangerous marine conditions will continue as low pressure forms and deepens well off the NC coast but cont to supply a steady fetch of strong nerly winds into ENC, with east northeasterly swells.

Outlook (Mon Night through Fri): Gales begin to taper off first in parts of the sounds and southern waters Monday night, then further east by mid week, though may have to be extended with oncoming fcst shifts for much of the coastal waters. There is large model spread beyond Tuesday on how long the low will meander and how much it strengthens, as a blocking pattern remains to the north and east through mid week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ046-094- 194. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for NCZ195. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ196. High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ203-205. Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203>205. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ131-158- 230. Gale Warning until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ137. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-154-156- 180-182-184-186. Gale Warning until noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ188. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ231.