textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will push offshore early this morning. A reinforcing shot of cold air then moves through tonight into Friday morning. High pressure builds in late Friday into Saturday, then moves offshore on Sunday. A coastal low is then possible early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 130 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

- The coldest air of the season moves in over the next couple of days

A post-frontal airmass will settle in across ENC today, leading to noticeably colder and drier conditions for Thanksgiving. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out around 15-20 degrees colder than yesterday. Late today and into tonight, a secondary surge of cold air advection will develop, leading to a bump up in winds, and advecting even colder air into the area. This should support lows falling into the 20s and 30s tonight, with wind chill values in the low to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 130 AM Thursday...

Friday will, by far, be the coldest day of the week. With modest CAA continuing into the day, highs will struggle to get out of the 40s. High pressure then settles in at night, leading to decent radiational cooling conditions, with lows in the low to mid 20s inland, and upper 20s to mid 30s along the coast. Across the coastal plain, lows may fall into the upper teens where winds remain the lightest. One caveat for lows Friday night is that there may still be just enough of a gradient to prevent complete decoupling, especially along/east of HWY 17. Additionally, high clouds moving in may offset radiational cooling effects some. Regardless, it will be well below normal.

Cold, below normal temperatures continue into Saturday, with highs still struggling to get out of the 40s, and lows falling into the 20s and 30s. Increasing cloudcover should prevent lows from getting as cold Saturday night as what is expected for Friday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 130 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

- Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall early next week

As we move into next week, attention will turn to a pattern change across the U.S. Aloft, a positively-tilted trough is forecast to develop across the western/central U.S., putting the eastern U.S. in a more active, southwesterly flow regime. 18z/00z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the overall synoptic pattern next week. The main point of difference still centers around the potential development of a coastal low in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. The latest suite of guidance is now honing in on a 1005- 1010mb SFC low tracking northeast from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic region during this time. In general, a notable percentage of deterministic and machine learning guidance have trended deeper with this low. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance has stayed fairly consistent from run-to-run (ie. not yet showing a deeper trend). There is plenty of time to iron out the details, but the deeper, and more consistent, trend is notable.

Based on all of the above, confidence continues to steadily increase regarding the potential for widespread, meaningful precipitation, with ensemble guidance now showing a 40-60% chance of exceeding 0.50" of rain across all of ENC.

Temperatures next week will be highly dependent on the track of the coastal low. A track near or just offshore (currently favored by guidance) would lead to colder temperatures and a cold rain. A track further inland (currently not as favored), would lead to warmer air and a risk of thunderstorms.

In the wake of the low, dry and cooler air looks to settle back into the region.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 540 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

-VFR through the TAF period, with gusty NW winds Thursday (~15 kts) and Friday (~20 kts) afternoons

VFR flight cats through the TAF period with NW winds moving over the region in the wake of a cold front. Obs reporting SKC with just thin upper level cloud coverage in place. VFR flight cats prevail through Thanksgiving, NWerly winds 5-10kt with G15-20kt during peak heating and FEW to SCT upper level clouds. Thursday night VFR conditions continue, winds lessen to around 5 kts, and skies remain generally clear.

Fri through Sat...Mainly VFR with dry and cold high pres overhead through early weekend. Bouts of gusty nwrly winds due to strong CAA Fri afternoon.

Sun through Mon...The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front approaches, and along with it a chance for sub VFR cond developing.

MARINE

As of 130 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

- Periods of elevated winds and seas to continue through Friday

Moderate westerly winds of 15-25kt will quickly become northwesterly early this morning as a cold front moves through. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for portions of the ENC waters where the risk of 25kt wind gusts is this highest. Additional headlines are likely to be needed for a second surge of northwesterly winds that are expected tonight into Friday morning. Seas of 3-6ft early this morning will lay down to 2-4 ft by this afternoon. Seas will then rebuild tonight into Friday morning as the next surge of NW winds arrives, leading to seas peaking at 4-6 ft once again.

Outlook: The lightest winds of the holiday weekend are expected Saturday and Sunday (5-15kt). During this time, seas of 2-3 ft are expected. Attention then turns to early next week as guidance continues to show a good signal for a coastal low to impact the area. It's still several days away, but stay tuned as we refine what the impact to mariners will be.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 1 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday late morning to evening with gusty winds and low relative humidities.

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe drought conditions with a long duration of little to no rainfall. Behind the cold front early this morning, dry air ushers into the region, allowing relative humidities to drop into the 25-35% range Thursday and Friday afternoon. In addition, wind gusts will be near 20 mph Thursday, and 20-25 mph Friday. Considering the drought conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall season progresses, we will see an increased potential for fire weather concerns, moreso Friday than Thursday given the higher winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ154- 156-158.