textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dropped the last SCA in effect for Central Coastal Waters. Introduced minor patchy fog to inland grids in early morning hours tomorrow. Updated Aviation disco.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through mid week with a warming trend late in the work week.

2) Unsettled weather returns over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS and sfc high pressure ridging in from the north will keep dry conditions across ENC through much of the work week. However, upper low retrograding to the SSW across the offshore waters Thursday into Friday may bring a few showers near the Gulf Stream, but dry conditions expected to persist across land areas. Gusty NEerly winds will continue until around sunset when they will begin to ease. NE flow regime remains in place through mid week bringing seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity levels, then will see gradually warming and increasing dewpoints Thursday into Friday as high pressure weakens and slides offshore allowing low level flow to veer to southerly ahead of an approaching cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak cold front will drop south into the area Saturday and briefly stall before lifting back north as a cold front on Sunday. Sfc convergence and lowering heights aloft as shortwave energy rides over the upper ridge along with increasing moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area over the weekend and into early next week, especially through peak heating when instability is greatest.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High pressure will ridge into the area from the north through the TAF period bringing pred VFR conditions. NE winds will prevail with gusts to around 15-20 kt possible through the remainder of the afternoon when deeper mixing ensues until a little after sunset. Light/calm winds tonight could allow for patchy shallow fog development inland. Have included TEMPO MVFR groups for ISO/PGV, but can never really count out OAJ completely. VFR is expected WED with lighter NEerly winds than today and FEW-SCT diurnal CU around FL040. Winds are expected to go light to calm over a greater area WED night, upping the chances for fog across all TAF sites.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): High pressure builds in through the middle of the week with predominantly VFR and dry conditions expected. A cold front is progged to push south into the area over the weekend bringing increased chances of precip.

MARINE

Current buoy obs show NE winds generally 10-15kt inside, 15-20kt with some slightly higher gusts outside. Seas generally 3-4ft@7-8sec predominant periods save for Crystal Coast nearshore waters where choppier conditions are evident. Have dropped last remaining SCA for central coastal waters with Diamond Shoals showing seas falling faster than previously forecast.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): NE winds around 15 kt or less continues on Wednesday, then will become light and veer to SE then S on Thursday into Friday as the high to the north weakens. A cold front is expected to drop into the area Saturday and briefly stall bringing light and variable winds across the waters. Lingering 6 ft seas across the central waters are expected to drop below SCA criteria by late Wednesday, if not sooner. Seas around 3-5 ft continues Thursday, then subsides to 2-4 ft Friday into Saturday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...None.