textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued a SCA for the rivers and sounds. Issued a Gale Watch for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Record highs possible ahead of a frontal system impacting ENC Friday.

2) Front brings a risk of showers and a few thunderstorms Fri night into Saturday but severe risk is low.

3) Risk of frost returns behind the front Saturday night.

Marine: SCA headlines in effect for offshore waters and Pamlico Sound tonight through Friday. Strong SCA to Gale Force winds possible Friday night into Saturday behind the front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong but slow-moving cold front will approach the Carolinas Friday as disorganized shortwave energy over the Northern Plains phases over the Great Lakes and digs across the mid-Atlantic. Mid-level heights will remain well above average for late March (up to 1-2 sigma), with low level thicknesses supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s inland on Friday, which may threaten a few records - see the CLIMATE section for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increased moisture advection along the southward-advancing frontal zone looks to support the next appreciable chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, focused mainly Friday night into Saturday with the best chances north of US Highway 70. Instability continues to look meager with less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE, and the severe thunderstorm risk appears to be very low (less than 2%). Overall moisture does not look to be deep enough to support significant rainfall, although several 12z models are showing higher QPF amounts to around a quarter inch with some HiRes models showing up to a half inch. Highest amount still appear to be across the northern tier.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Behind this front, another surge of northerly winds is expected Friday night and Saturday, along with cooler, below normal temperatures returning over the weekend. There is a potential for frost Saturday night with latest NBM probs showing greater than 70 percent across inland counties.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through Fri afternoon, with sub- VFR chances increasing Fri evening behind the cold front. SW winds will continue gust to 15-20 kt overnight into Thu. Period of LLWS likely overnight with increasing winds aloft. Cold front crosses the region FRI afternoon with gusty SWerly winds again ahead of the front and diurnal CU AoA FL040. Winds will rapidly shift to NNE along with lowering cigs and sct showers from north to south behind the front Fri eve.

Outlook: The cold front will push offshore by Saturday morning. Similar to this recent front, there will be a risk of SCT SHRA, isolated TSRA, and a notable northerly wind shift. Once again it looks like there will be a risk of 20-35kt wind gusts behind the front. Sub VFR conditions may develop as well, especially where SHRA develop with CIGs forecast to decrease to MVFR after sunset Friday night, and potentially IFR by the early morning hours Saturday.

MARINE

Currently seeing SW winds around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4 ft but winds will continue to increase to around 15-25 kt with seas building to 4-6 ft this evening and continue through Friday ahead of a strong cold front. The front will push south across the waters late Friday afternoon and evening with a strong northerly surge developing behind the front. The strongest CAA will occur after midnight Friday through much of Saturday when Gale Force conditions are possible with highest chances across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Seas will build to 6-10+ ft peaking during the day Saturday. Have added an SCA for the Pamlico Sound for gusts to 25 kt in pre-frontal SW winds. Also issued a Gale Watch from late Friday night for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound.

Outlook: Seas will likely remain elevated into at least Sunday. Mostly benign conditions expected for much of next week with high pressure centered off the coast.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 03/27 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/2020 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 77/2017 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 88/1929 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 77/1989 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 88/1938 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 87/2020 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ158. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for AMZ158.