textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move through ENC tonight. High pressure then rebuilds offshore late this week with above normal temperatures returning. A frontal system will bring the next chance of rain this weekend, with cooler and drier conditions expected early next week. Another system brings a small chance for rain by mid week next week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 630 PM Wednesday...

Clouds have been slower to move into the area which, with relatively light winds, has allowed for decent radiational cooling conditions. Because of this, temperatures have fallen quicker than forecast, and hourly temps have been adjusted to reflect this faster rate of fall. However, overnight lows shouldn't differ much from the previous forecast as clouds are still expected to move in, slowing the drop in temps.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Warm conditions with partly to mostly sunny skies have developed this afternoon ahead of a dry cold front. Temps are now into the low to mid 70s across the southern half of the forecast area, and upper 60s to low 70s farther north where clouds remain. The cold front will move through the forecast area from north to south late this afternoon, bringing both a wind shift to the north and more widespread low cloud cover. Cloudy skies continue overnight, but modest CAA will help push temps down into the mid to upper 40s inland, and lower 50s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/

As of 2 PM Wed...Weak cold air damming will be in place tomorrow with high pressure ridging down the lee of the Appalachians and light northerly flow at the surface. Clouds will remain for most of the morning, but will break from south to north through the afternoon. As a result, there will be a large temperature range across the forecast area with areas along the northern coastal plain remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s with cloud cover most of the day. Across southern NC, clouds will likely break by late morning and allow for afternoon heating with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s. And finally, the middle area is most uncertain, and highs here will depend on how much sun is seen.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 2 PM Wed...Mainly mild conditions expected with above climo temps through mid next week. Chances for early Saturday through late Saturday night, and then again by mid next week.

Fri through Sat...Next frontal system moves in bringing light rain chances. For now, Friday looks to remain dry with moisture along a warm front remaining just north of the forecast area. Kept pops in the chc range for now Saturday and Saturday night. Rain amts do not appear impressive, but perhaps some areas could see a wetting rain. Will keep a slight chance of thunder Saturday afternoon with "strong" heating expected and temps reaching the upper 70s to around 80.

Sun through Wed...High pressure is then forecast to build in behind the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing. Zonal flow will be in place, so temps should be around avg during this period, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 630 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions expected tonight into Thursday AM

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is how low CIGs get tonight into Thursday morning. One cold front has pushed offshore south of the Crystal Coast this evening. Meanwhile, a secondary cold front is currently moving south along the Chesapeake Bay Region, and is associated with widespread low CIGs. Upstream obs show a mix of MVFR and IFR. Ensemble guidance suggests a high probability of IFR CIGs developing across all of ENC later tonight into Thursday morning. Meanwhile, statistical and deterministic guidance are more mixed, not showing quite as strong of a signal for IFR conditions. This regime certainly favors IFR CIGs, but because of the mixed signal in available guidance, I opted to not stray too far from the previous TAFs for now, and I'll continue to show a SCT IFR layer with predominantly MVFR CIGs. The one exception is KEWN where most guidance shows IFR potential.

On Thursday, CIGs should gradually rise to MVFR and then to VFR, but clearing in these types of setups isn't always handled well in the models. Confidence in CIGs scattering out is low to moderate.

Outlook: High pressure remains in place into Friday. Should winds ease enough, could see some VIS concerns with patchy early morning fog as well. Yet another chance for Sub-VFR conditions over the weekend when a series of approaching, and eventually passing, fronts increase rain chances and sky cover.

MARINE

As of 630 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions to continue through around midnight across most of the coastal waters due to northerly winds of 20-25 kts with gusts 25-30 kts

Northerly winds have increased pretty much right on schedule, with peak gusts as high as 23-27kt for portions of the central and northern waters as of early this evening. The ongoing marine headlines look good, and no changes are expected there.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Ahead of a cold front this afternoon winds are WSW at 10-20 kts. The front will move through the area from north to south starting late this afternoon, and winds will surge to 20-25 kts out of the north with gusts 25-30 kts for a several hour period through around midnight. Winds then subside overnight and will be N 10-15 kts tomorrow. Seas will be 2-4 ft, but will briefly come up to 3-5 for a few hours overnight.

Outlook: Winds become light and variable for most of Friday, but then quickly strengthen out of the SW Friday night. Small Craft conditions are likely to develop over at least the coastal waters early Saturday through Sunday as a frontal system passes by the Carolinas. Improving conditions expected Sunday night through Monday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Thursday for AMZ154-156.