textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast. Still monitoring the potential for stronger thunderstorms Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly quiet weather with steadily increasing moisture to start the week. Sea breeze worth monitoring on Wednesday.

2) A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing gusty winds and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1..High pressure anchored over the SE will gradually shift offshore tonight into Tue. Deeper SW flow will continue to advect in moisture with temps continuing to grad warm through mid week.

If we're able to overcome the dry layer between 700-850 mb, Wednesday's seabreeze could be active...though guidance is not excited about convective potential right now. Machine learning guidance shows low severe probs (10% or less), but decent bulk shear and a LLJ could help produce a few stronger gusts within convection. Precip chances will continue to increase into the night as a cold front approaches from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday night. At the surface, a cold front will move into ENC Thursday afternoon, moving through Thu evening. Low pressure will develop along the front, but guidance still differs on the speed of the front and the strength and track of the low.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day, and there's a non-zero chance for some storms to be strong to severe. Forcing will be lacking in the morning, and depending on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the evening front, destabilization may be dampened. So although ample bulk shear will be present throughout the day, there are several factors that could limit the severe threat. Will continue to monitor the potential for stronger tstm development.

In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW winds with gusts to 25-30 mph inland and 30-40 mph along the coast.

A secondary low may develop along the offshore front Friday and Saturday, which could support a few showers brushing the coast.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mainly clear skies. Light mixing expected through the overnight limiting fog development with probs near zero, however if a location does decouple, cannot rule out brief periods of shallow ground fog developing. S to SW winds are gusting around 20-25 kt late this afternoon will become less gusty after sunset, then diminishing to around 5-10 kt late this evening and overnight. S to SW wind will gust to around 20 kt from mid morning through the afternoon Tuesday.

Outlook: Our next notable chance at sub-VFR conditions looks to be around Wednesday/Thursday with the approach of a low pressure system and its associated fronts. This is forecast to bring showers and thunderstorms to ENC and thus potential for reduced ceilings and visibilities.

MARINE

Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft early this afternoon. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft later this afternoon and early evening as thermal gradient strengthens. Brief period of 25 kt gusts will be possible across the eastern portions of the sounds and nearshore waters through this evening, though still too marginal for SCA headlines. SW winds will diminish to 5-15 kt late tonight and early Tue, then again increasing to 10-20 kt Tue afternoon and evening.

Outlook: SSW winds 10-20 kt Wed, with SCA gusts possible by Wednesday evening as the gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. On Thursday, prefrontal SW winds will increase to 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. Winds will veer to the NW Thursday night behind the front. Seas will peak at 5-10 ft. Winds will decrease to 10-20 kt with gusts to 15-25 kt by Friday morning with good boating conditions returning by the afternoon. Light to moderate SW winds will continue this weekend with seas 2-4 ft.

Thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusts, will be possible on Thursday as well.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.