textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Patchy sea fog added for today around NOBX and parts of the Pamlico Sound.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above normal to near record conditions expected Wednesday through early next week high pressure ridging offshore.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An anomalously strong ridge will set up over the southeast US Wednesday and remain in place into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some afternoons, especially Thursday through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures. A few isolated showers may develop at times in the sea breeze circulation, but overall mostly dry conditions are expected until at least late this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly MVFR ceilings are currently noted across the region with cigs of 1 to 2 kft currently. As we get through tonight a weak shortwave moves across the Mid-Atlantic bringing a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings and isolated showers along OBX and north of hwy 264. Given the low probs and light nature of rain, elected to not include any RA mentions in TAFs. MVFR ceilings likely lower late tonight into early Tue morning between about 7-10Z. Ceilings will then struggle to lift Tue morning with most guidance suggesting much of the area remains under IFR ceilings until about 15Z Tue. Afterwards a brief period of MVFR ceilings is forecast before the sky cover becomes more scattered to broken and ceilings lift. Winds generally remain light through the entire period as it veers from NE to SE. There is a chance for sea fog to develop this morning and linger through the afternoon along NOBX, capable of impacting FFA and MQI if materialized.

Tuesday night through Saturday: Improving aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week. As we get into late week, moist southerly flow moves into the region as high sits offshore. If radiational cooling conditions occur during the night with to clear skies and calm winds, there is the potential for fog.

MARINE

Small craft seas will linger over much of the coastal waters north of Ocracoke through tomorrow, ranging from 5-7 ft.

Winds this morning will remain northerly, but will weaken to under 10 kts by mid morning. Winds will then be light and variable this afternoon before light southerly flow eventually develops early tonight. Light S/SW flow 5-10 kts will continue tomorrow.

As winds become light and slowly veer through the day today, there is a chance of sea fog forming in the vicinity of NOBX waters and parts of the Pamlico Sound. Air and water temps are closely matched (in the 40s), and dew point depressions will be near zero. Many models are indicating sea fog during this period, but models are often overly sensitive to sea fog in the NOBX region and have a high false alarm rate. For this reason, elected to stick with patchy fog wording instead of anything more aggressive, although in a worst case scenario we could see widespread dense marine fog.

Outlook: Pleasant boating conditions are expected for the rest of the week and into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 03/05 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 84/2015 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/1976 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 86/1923 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 76/2023 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 87/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 83/1985 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 85/1961 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 76/1992 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1992 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 85/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 82/1961 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1974 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/2022 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/1908 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 85/1974 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.