textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Widespread dense fog of 1/4 mile or less has been added to most areas land and marine.

Rain chances trending upward for early next week, but well above normal warmth will remain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dense fog will continue to develop and expand over ENC overnight including both land and marine areas.

2) Well above normal to near record conditions expected Wednesday through early next week with high pressure ridging offshore.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dense fog will continue to develop and expand early this morning over both land and marine areas. For the land areas good radiational cooling and calm winds have led to areas of patchy but shallow dense fog, but it's anticipated over the next several hours that fog will expand both in area and vertically, and bring hazardous travel conditions for the early morning commute. Dense fog advisories are likely going to be needed later this morning.

Sea fog has also returned to portions of the marine areas especially over the Outer Banks, and has become very dense in some areas. As we go through the rest of the early morning hours, sea fog should also expand to cover not only most of the Outer Banks, but also farther south along the Crystal Coast and Onslow beaches.

Inland fog may hang around until mid morning, but will dissipate quickly once it starts. Sea fog along the coast will be slower to dissipate, and could hang on for most of the day in some areas.

For planning purposes, sea fog could continue to plague the coast the next few mornings through this weekend, but the exact location and intensity is hard to predict this far out.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge will set up over the southeast US today and remain in place into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some afternoons, especially Thursday through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures.

Latest forecast trends show a weak front moving into the Carolinas late this weekend and into early next week, with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms as the well above normal conditions hold on.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Confidence has increased for widespread dense fog tonight across land and marine zones. VIS of 1/4 mile or less is expected to engulf most of the area (except between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout) by 6-9Z and stay socked in until mid- morning. Stubborn sea fog may cause areas north of Cape Hatteras and south of Cape Lookout to hang on to sub-MVFR VIS through the day tomorrow. CIGs will scatter out by mid-morning as well with a mixture of SCT mid and high clouds through the day. Another round of fog is likely tomorrow night, with the potential for LIFR to VLIFR conditions. Winds have gone calm tonight, becoming SW at 5-10 kt tomorrow before becoming light to calm again tomorrow night.

MARINE

SEA FOG: Sea fog has also returned to portions of the marine areas especially over the Pamlico Sound and portions of the Outer Banks, and has become very dense in some areas. As we go through the rest of the early morning hours, sea fog should also expand to cover not only most of the Outer Banks, but also farther south to the nearshore waters along the Crystal Coast and other portions of Raleigh Bay.

For planning purposes, sea fog could continue to plague the marine areas the next few mornings through this weekend, but the exact location and intensity is hard to predict this far out.

WINDS/SEAS: Small craft seas will linger over the nearshore waters adjacent to Cape Hatteras for most of today, before finally dropping below 6 ft. Otherwise, good boating conditions are expected with winds light and variable this morning, and then S/SW at 5-15 kts through tomorrow. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft.

Outlook: Pleasant boating conditions continue into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine area.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 03/05 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 84/2015 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/1976 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 86/1923 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 76/2023 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 87/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 83/1985 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 85/1961 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 76/1992 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1992 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 85/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 82/1961 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1974 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/2022 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/1908 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 85/1974 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ205. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ135-152. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ154.