textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and humid conditions will continue into the beginning of next week.

2) Occasional periods of unsettled weather returns through early next week.

3) Increased marine impacts mid week as high waves and potentially strong winds impact the OBX.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS and sfc high pressure ridging in from the north are keeping ENC dry early this afternoon. PoPs increase late afternoon through tonight ahead of and along a front moving through the region. Warm and humid will cont through at least early next week as PW's rise back above climo.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The aforementioned cold front is expected to move into and through ENC through Sat. Sfc convergence and lowering heights aloft as shortwave energy rides over the upper ridge along with increasing moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and perhaps a few storms late today, and esp this evening. Front slowly sags into srn portions of ENC Sat, with best chances for showers and iso thunderstorms for srn areas on Sat. Fcst a bit more muddled beyond Sat as it will depend on the front location, but at this time it appears typical seabreeze showers/storms Sunday into early next week as return flow develops once again.

Key Message 3...Next week, a strong high pressure system becomes anchored acrs New England and ern Canada, while at the same time low pres develops off the Mid Atlantic coast, tightening the pressure gradient along the mid- atlantic and northeast. This will likely usher in stronger NE winds to the region. Given it is 4-6 days out, there is still much uncertainty, as both wind speed and direction is dependent on the placement, strength, and timing of the low. For now there is good model consensus on at least higher waves 8+ ft at 8+ sec along the Outer Banks mid- next week. This will be worth keeping an eye on, as a long fetch of strong winds could bring higher wave energy towards vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks. It is too soon to determine specifics at this point and trends will have to be monitored in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Currently VFR across all terminals this evening with a weakening band of showers and embedded thunderstorms migrating southward along a pre-frontal trough from roughly Goldsboro south to Wilmington and weaker showers in the vicinity of EWN. Activity will continue to decay through the evening with loss of heating while primary front gradually sags southward overnight.

Probabilities of overnight stratus continue to increase from the previous forecast with sufficient low-level moisture trapped under a developing frontal inversion. As is common in NE flow events, expect stratus shield to build from northeast to southwest with some periods of IFR around dawn. MVFR cigs will be slow to lift tomorrow with relatively weak mixing and low- levels remaining saturated, and some sites may not break back to VFR until around 17-18z tomorrow. Shower and thunderstorm threat returns tomorrow, this time favoring areas from EWN south along the stalled front.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): Higher moisture lingers Sunday into early next week keeping shower chances in play and thus ocnl sub VFR conditions. Potential cold air damming pattern develops next week with a risk of prolonged sub-VFR conditions and breezy NE to E winds.

MARINE

Return sswrly breezes with speeds of 5-10 kt, ocnl higher gusts for most waters. Seas remaining 2-3ft nearshore, with 4 ft sets offshore. A trough out ahead of the cold front is pushing through the region right now, with light northerly winds developing in the wake of it. The cold front drops into nrn portions of the waters and sounds late today, then sinks south through the rest of the area later tonight and stalling across SENC/NESC Saturday. Behind this cold front, NE wind gusts 15-20 knots are possible for waters. The most aggressive of guidance suggests a few infrequent gusts up to 25 knots possible Saturday, but a small craft advisory was not deemed necessary with this update. With this increase in winds, seas will increase to 3-5 ft.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday) Winds and seas should remain below SCA through the weekend. Sunday winds veer to srly by late day, then become nwerly behind yet another fropa on Monday, though speeds remain generally in the 5-15 kt range Sun into Mon with seas 2-4 ft. NE Winds and seas begin to build Tuesday PM or Wed as pressure gradient tightens as we are sandwiched between a strong high to our north and a non- tropical low developing offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.