textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A warm front will lift north through ENC today followed by a cold front pushing through the area late Saturday. Cooler and drier high pressure rebuilds Sunday into early next week before another frontal system brings the next chance of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /Through Today/

As of 6 AM Fri...Area of rain cont to march eastward towards the Coastal Plain counties from the Eastern NC Piedmont. Pops range from 40-70%, highest acrs nrn half of the FA. Amounts will be light, and generally less than around 0.10".

Prev disc... As of 3 AM Fri...Inc isentropic ascent occuring this morning, with rain breaking out acrs ctrl and wrn NC. This area of lift will slide ewrd through the morning while weak sfc warm front begins lifting northward through ENC. Have inc rain chances markedly for the FA, esp acrs the nrn half, where best lift will be realized. Have inc sky cover to mo cloudy to ovc, as widespread cloud cover all areas will keep temps on the cooler side, and have dec temps accordingly. Highs range from around 70 for the south, where little rain will occur, to around 60 north, where up to a tenth of an inch or so of rain will fall, along with lowered cigs hanging on all afternoon in wake of the rain today.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/

As of 3 AM Fri...The area becomes mostly dry slotted tonight as all of ENC will be in the warm sector, with sfc cold front and sfc forcing west of the region. Can't rule out some spotty light rain from time to time, and held onto a 20% pop most areas. Very warm and muggy for late Nov and temps generally remaining in the lower 60s through the night. Temps may creep up through the late night as swrly breezes inc to 5-10 mph.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 2 PM Thu...Mainly mild conditions expected with above climo temps through mid next week. Chances for light rain Sat through early Sat night. Another system brings rain chances by mid next week.

Sat...On Sat, ENC is in warm sector with highs rebounding back into the 70s as warm front will have lifted north. Kept pops in the chc range for now Saturday and Saturday night. Rain amts do not appear impressive, but perhaps some areas could see a wetting rain. Could still see a few rumbles of thunder if surface heating is strong enough and utilizes the modest instability present. Best chc for thunder generally along and west of a PGV to EWN to MRH line where the area will be south of quickly advancing cold front to the north.

Sun through Mon...High pressure is then forecast to build in behind the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing. Zonal flow will be in place, so temps should be around avg during this period, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows in the 40s. Sun night will be the coolest night, with lows in the 30s interior to 40s coast.

Tue through Wed...Next chance for rain arrives by Tue, and esp Tue night into early Wed, as shortwave and frontal boundary sweep through. This system has the potential to tap into some GOM moisture, as layer streamlines are out of the sw through the SE CONUS, but timing and mesoscale features are yet to be ironed out, so no higher than 30-50% pops this far out in time. Temps rebound to warmer than climo, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to 50s.

Thanksgiving Day...Should be on the dry side, as 21/00Z guidance and respective ensembles have trended drier with a clean frontal passage by Wed night. Have advertised no higher than 20% with near climo highs in the low/mid 60s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 115 AM Fri...

Key Messages

- Chance of fog and low stratus tonight with the greatest potential north of Highway 70 and west of Hwy 17

- Chances for showers and sub-VFR conditions tomorrow as a weak warm front lifts through the area

- Lower than average confidence forecast

Difficult aviation forecast this morning as weak area of high pressure remains wedged over eastern NC this morning, while weak area of elevated isentropically driven rainfall quickly makes its way eastward across the state ahead of a warm front to our west. Thick mid-level cloud cover also accompanies this feature. Flight conditions have generally been MVFR, although there have been frequent bounces to VFR and then IFR where mid-level cloud breaks have occurred.

Transitory fog and low stratus remain likely in the next few hours, becoming less likely as mid-level cloud deck continues to thicken. After sunrise, cigs likely to remain at MVFR with increasing rain risk as WAA strengthens atop the frontal inversion. Some brief drops to IFR are possible in heavier precipitation, but predictability is too low to explicitly mention in TAFs this cycle. Did add PROB30s to all terminals given increase in confidence from 00z guidance suite.

Rain ends from west to east, clearing TAF terminals no later than 19z, although MVFR will likely linger for a few more hours especially north of EWN. Predominantly VFR returns overnight with uptick of southwesterly winds ahead of another mid-level disturbance.

Outlook: Yet another chance for Sub-VFR conditions over the weekend when a series of approaching, and eventually passing, fronts increase rain chances and sky cover. Highest chances currently Sat evening into Sun morning. VFR likely beyond Sunday as cooler high pressure builds in behind the front.

MARINE

As of 3 AM Fri...SCA has been issued for the srn and ctrl waters late tonight through late Sat night.

Today...Light/vbl winds this morning become srly today as weak warm front lifts north. Seas cont 2-4 ft.

Tonight...Swrly gradient inc ahead of approaching cold front. Will see winds inc to 15-25 kt g 30 kt over the mixed Gulf waters, where SCA is in effect now. Elsewhere, marine inversion in place with the warm airmass overspreading cooler shelf and sound waters, where winds of 10-15 kt g 20 kt expected. The swrly flow lingers into Sat.

Sat night...Strong cold front sweeps south with nrly wind surge expected 15-25 kt all waters and sounds. It appears the wind surge may be brief enough to preclude SCA issue elsewhere (< 6 hrs), but will have to monitor later forecasts for any expansion to SCA suite.

Sunday through Monday...Improving wind and wave conditions with sub SCA expected, which will linger into early next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-158.