textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold mornings continue through mid week, then temperatures moderate by late-week.

2) Dry high pres continues through much of the coming week with warm days but chilly nights and continued ongoing drought conditions. Afternoon relative humidities will be quite low but winds light.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A sprawling area of high pressure will reside over much of the Eastern U.S. through the upcoming week. Beneath the high, cool low-level thicknesses and mostly clear skies should support great radiational cooling conditions. Blended guidance struggles to capture lows in good radiational setups like this, and lows were dropped below blended guidance over the next few nights to account for this. The coldest nights look to be Monday night and Tuesday night. Despite many areas seeing frost/freeze impacts, the program has been ended for much of ENC due to the widespread freeze that occurred this morning. In light of that, any frost/freeze headlines will be confined to Downeast Carteret County, Pamlico County, Hyde County, and coastal Dare County. For those areas, it looks like there will be just enough wind to prevent widespread frost formation tonight. Lighter winds are expected Monday night and Tuesday night, though, and frost headlines may be needed for those nights where the frost/freeze program is still ongoing.

Low-level thicknesses will steadily warm mid to late week, and even though high pressure will remain in place, highs and lows each day should respond by trending up. By Thursday and Friday, 70s should make a return appearance, especially away from the OBX. For the OBX, highs will likely be tempered by a northeast or east flow off the cooler waters of the Labrador Current.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A very dry airmass remaining in place over the coming week will exacerbate the worsening drought conditions across ENC. Fortunately winds are not expected to be strong with the high nearby. However, fire weather concerns may grow with the curing vegetation combined with low RH values each afternoon. Highs will warm back to above climo in the upper 60s to low 70s mid to late week, but overnight lows will continue quite chilly and below climo.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

High pressure will remain in control of the weather throughout the current TAF cycle. However, later this evening and tonight a subtle surface trough is still forecast to move through the area with a subtle wind shift and potentially a FEW/SCT layer of stratocumulus clouds. The impact to aviation looks minimal.

Outlook: A sprawling area of high pressure is forecast to remain in place throughout much of the upcoming week, keeping winds mostly light and generally out of the north or northeast. There may be some instances of reduced VIS due to MIFG/BR, but significant aviation impacts are not anticipated.

MARINE

High pressure centered to the NW of ENC will keep a modest, northerly flow (10-15kt) in place through Monday. Higher gusts can be expected at times, especially this evening through Monday morning as a weak surface boundary moves through. Seas of 3-5ft will be common through Monday across the nearshore coastal waters, with 5- 7ft seas across the outer coastal waters.

Outlook: High pressure will assert its influence more by Tuesday and Wednesday with winds laying down to 5-15kt out of the N or NE. Seas will follow suite, eventually laying down to 2-4ft by Wednesday. 5- 15kt NE winds and seas of 2-5ft will then be common through the end of the work week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.