textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A warm front will attempt to move through by this evening with next chance for rain followed by a weak cold front. An arctic cold front moves through late Monday with a return to cold through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 115 AM Friday...

Key Messages...

- Chance of rain later this afternoon (20%-30%). Cool especially inland.

Main focus today will be inland temperatures and if we see any afternoon showers. A cold front has just about cleared our area. As high pressure nudges southward, northeast winds will create a classic cold air damming situation today, especially for our inland counties. Here we have likely hit our high for the day (mid 50s), as temps slide back into the 40s by sunrise, and likely hold here through afternoon. Closer to the coast, won't be quite as chilly but temps will likely will be pretty steady today in the 50s. The front mentioned above will try to return northward as a warm front later today. The HRRR, regional Canadian and NAM all show spotty showers this afternoon as this happens. Bufkit cross sections show good moisture and lift between 5kft and 10kft, so a few sprinkles or a light shower is possible after 18Z. With very dry air above this moist layer, if we see any showers, QPF amounts are likely to be around a trace to a hundrenth or two. If we see a few rays of sunshine today it would be most likely this morning, and toward the OBX. Otherwise with good moisture in the mid levels, becoming cloudy will be the general rule today.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 115 AM Friday...

Key Messages...

- Rain showers early evening.

Rain chances increase along the warm front mentioned above by this evening. Highest chances will shift toward the OBX. As the front lifts through the area, drier weather builds in after midnight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 115 AM Friday...

Key Messages...

- Above normal conditions Saturday, Sunday and Monday with temperatures in the 60s and 70s!

- A pattern changing arctic cold front will move through the area late Monday with well below normal conditions returning through early to mid next week

Saturday is looking to be especially nice. With high pressure ridging over our area, H925 temps climb to +8C, which will help part of our area making a run toward 70 for highs! 925 temps cool about 1.5 degrees Sunday, and with increasing high clouds, temps won't be quite as warm or generally in the 60s.

The main trend with our arctic cold continues to be to slow it down. At one point a later Sunday FROPA is now later Monday. With strong warm air advection (WAA) Monday, highs will surge into the middle 70s or roughly average highs for late December for West Palm Beach, Fl! A thin line of showers may accompany the front Monday evening, but the bigger headline will be the abrupt return to winter. Below temps expected Tuesday and beyond, with highs in the 40s to near 50 and lows mainly in the 20s. Ouch!

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 12:40 AM...

Key Messages

- VFR through bulk of day FRI

- Deteriorating flight cats FRI night

A weak cold front is moving south across the area, which has produced a swath of lower clouds and some isolated light showers. CIGs are expected to remain mostly VFR, but brief periods of MVFR CIGs will be possible over the next couple of hours (especially for OAJ). BKN to OVC mid level clouds will linger through the day with winds remaining light and variable. Some light showers will be possible this afternoon/evening but chances are too low at this time to be included in the TAFs (15-25%, higher near coast). Near 00z tonight, MVFR CIGs will develop across the area and with the potential for IFR CIGs around midnight.

Outlook: There appears to be an opportunity for sub VFR conditions late Friday into Saturday morning as low clouds develop around a coastal trough. This risk may continue off and on into the weekend. Early next week, a period of gusty southwest winds appears likely, with gusts as high as 20-25kt.

MARINE

As of 130 AM Friday...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions will continue this afternoon over the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound through sunrise

- Additional rounds of Small craft conditions likely this weekend and into early next week

Surge of northeast winds moving over the coastal waters now. Winds will subside by mid morning but seas will remain elevated across offshore waters until later today at the earliest, lingering into the overnight hours for the offshore Gulf Stream waters into Friday evening. Seas peak at 6-8 feet.

Outlook: Winds temporarily improve over the weekend, but seas may remain at or above 6 ft as long period swell moves into marine waters, especially central waters off Hatteras. Winds increase again Monday morning in advance of a strong cold front with widespread Small Craft conditions and possibly Gale conditions developing. Waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke may be under continuous headlines for the next several days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156- 158.