textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A front will stall near the coastal plain today, washing out over the Carolinas through the rest of the week. The pattern will remain unsettled this weekend into early next week with high pressure offshore, and frontal boundary stalled to the south.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 700 AM Wed...Upper low that has sat over southern Canada and the Great Lakes for the past few days is finally beginning to lift through New England and into Atlantic Canada this morning. Cyclonic flow remains over the Carolinas for now, but this will give way to considerably weaker winds aloft as subtropical ridge over the southeastern Atlantic expands over the southeastern CONUS through the short term. At the surface, yesterday's cold front continues to make slow headway across western NC but our area remains stuck under the same warm and humid airmass.

Early morning offshore convection is steadily waning, and any lingering rain along the Crystal Coast will come to an end in an hour or two at most. Focus then turns to a renewed round of showers and thunderstorms. Main focal point will be along sea and sound breezes, while aforementioned front decays inland. Pre-storm environment will be quite a bit more unstable than yesterday with forecast MLCAPEs jumping to 1500-2000+ J/kg. What we gain in instability, however, we lose in shear as ridging gradually builds overhead (0-6km effective shear under 20 kt). Although an odd strong storm or two can't be ruled out, mainly posing a gusty wind threat with strong downbursts, the overall severe risk is negligible. Did nudge down PoPs slightly, thinking with gradual increase in heights coverage may be a touch sparser than CAMs would suggest.

Temps near climo today under otherwise partly cloudy skies, with highs in the 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/

As of 320 AM Wed...Convection gradually ebbs with loss of heating, and all areas will likely be dry by midnight. Like this morning, showers and storms redevelop offshore but should largely remain away from the coastline. With overnight winds at their lightest in a few nights but airmass remaining moist and soils freshly saturated, tonight into Thursday morning presents an ideal environment for a mix of low stratus and some fog. Lows near climo, in the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 0330 Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warm, Moist, Unsettled.

Trough aloft well to the N departing Eward with zonal flow overhead locally. Front will slowly work towards the FA, but it's starting to look like it will lose momentum to our W where it will meander whilst becoming more diffuse, and eventually completely dissipating by late week as Bermuda High strengthens. By late week, upper ridging builds in across SECONUS bringing in broad subsidence aloft. Moisture content remains ample in onshore flow through the bottom half of the column keeping mentionable PoPs in the forecast for the vast majority of the period. Showers/TS in general summer diurnal pattern with best chances associated with seabreeze in afternoon and evenings becoming confined offshore nocturnally. As flow aloft becomes more zonal late week, expecting afternoon sea/sound/river breeze showers/tstorms to become less robust.

Early next week mid level trough approaches from the W with the offshore high holding strong keeping moisture and instability in place for more summer precip pattern forecasts.

Little variance in Ts through the long term, MaxTs in mid upper 80s maybe touching 90 and MinTs low 70s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

SHORT TERM /through 12Z Thurs/... As of 705 AM Wed...Shallow deck of stratus focused closer to I-95 this morning is bleeding eastward towards coastal plain terminals, where mix of MVFR and spotty IFR is in place. This should not stick around long as more robust heating begins, and expect VFR to return by 13z for all terminals.

Considerably lighter winds forecast today as front nears the coastal plain and then washes out. Sct tstorm development likely again this afternoon, focused along the sea breeze near EWN/OAJ around 17-18z and migrating northward along progressive outflow boundaries. Typical sub-VFR flight restrictions likely in storms.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 0430 Wednesday...Unsettled conditions will prevail through the period, keeping diurnal showers and tstorms in the forecast each day. Expect periods of sub- VFR flight cats with gusty winds under showers/storms in afternoon and evening with early morning fog development possible for areas that see rain.

MARINE

SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Wed...Marine conditions gradually improving this morning across ENC waters as southwest winds ebb to 10-15 kt and seas fall to 3-5 feet, per regional observations. However, convective activity is wasting no time developing over Onslow and Raleigh Bays. This activity will continue through dawn with a few stronger storms posing a threat of gusty winds and an odd waterspout or two.

Storm activity steadily wanes through the day, giving way to southwesterly to south flow of 10-15 kt (closer to 5-10 kt across inland rivers and sounds) and seas steadily falling to 3-4 feet across all waters. Showers and storms likely redevelop early Thurs morning, although likely focused farther offshore than current activity. No SCA headlines are needed through the short term period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night though Sunday/... As of 0430 Wednesday...Generally SW 10-15kt through the long term, strongest during peak heating, calming ever so slightly overnight. Typical summer-time precip pattern: offshore showers early AM, clearing afternoons, nocturnal showers and storms.

Winds slightly stronger weekend, SWerly 15-20kt offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.