textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded the Heat Advisory to include Pitt, Greene, and Lenoir counties. Updated PoPs given radar and model trends.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions will prevail through the workweek with bringing high probabilities for a major heat risk over much of the area.

2) Summertime pattern continues over the next several days with daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An elevated heat risk will be the name of the game over the next few days low level flow generally SW to W over the next several days. As a result, some weak WAA will allow low level thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based off the offices climatological study this is forecast to result in highs in the low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast through much of the week before a front impacts the region resulting in cooler temperatures late week into the weekend.

Heat indices are expected to peak around 100-110 each afternoon through Thurs, and potentially lingering into Fri with daily heat headlines probable for much of the area. For today, have expanded the Heat Advisory to include Pitt, Greene, and Lenoir counties. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A typical summer time pattern will remain in place through much the week with a series of shortwaves/MCS's moving through WNW flow aloft bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms across the region. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, could see daily seabreeze related storms developing each afternoon, however best forcing will occur as individual shortwaves move across the region.

A MCS currently over WV/Western VA is expected to dive into NC late afternoon, reaching the eastern half of NC this evening. There is a lot of uncertainty on the coverage and strength of storms as it approaches eastern NC, but if it can keep its strength, some gusty winds could be at play with the strongest of tstorms this evening into early tonight.

A second MCS currently moving through Indiana is expected to dive southeast and reach NC later tonight. How the first MCS progresses has a big impact on the second MCS, so there is once again low confidence on the outcome. Regardless, gusty winds are still at play with and stronger storms that exist as the second MCS remnant approaches eastern NC.

SPC has the entire CWA in a marginal risk for severe weather tonight.

Additional shortwaves are expected tomorrow and Thursday PM and SPC has portions of the FA in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for Day 2 as these systems push across the area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat with these storms. A stronger northern stream shortwave is progged to push across the Mid- Atlantic Friday with the attendant cold front pushing into the area bringing the best forcing and chances for widespread showers and storms across the area. High pressure build into the area over the weekend bringing bringing a drier airmass and minimal chances for storms.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

AMD NOT SKED is kept for EWN with spotty observations. TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. NKT is the closest ASOS. EWN is able to be dialed into to receive latest observations. Fog and low stratus concerns are low tonight with winds expected to remain elevated enough. However, locations that experienced enhanced rainfall today could be at risk of seeing some low stratus or very shallow, non-impactful ground fog with higher near surface moisture. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening along the sea breeze, with additional rounds of tstorm chances tonight as convective systems pushing across the Mid- Atlantic. Some storms could produce strong wind gusts.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are expected mid to late week, but there will be scattered convection possible each afternoon and evening hours that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. A cold front is progged to push through the area late Friday/Friday night that will bring the best chances for prolonged sub-VFR conditions. In addition, there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning with best chances in areas that saw significant rainfall the previous afternoon/evening.

MARINE

A typical summertime pattern across the waters with S-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven over the Gulf Stream waters. A cold front is progged to push across the waters late Friday/Friday night with N to NE winds developing over the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...None.