textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Discussion

Increased PoPs through this evening. Wintry mix remains possible inland into tonight.

Added Gale Watches for this weekend for waters not currently covered by Gale Warnings.

Cold Wx Advisory also skipped due to brevity and marginality of conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Black ice and snow/ice refreeze remains a threat to travel, though lesser impacts are expected with extensive melting yesterday.

2) Snow/sleet may still mix in to precip into this evening.

3) Potential Record Breaking cold Sunday and Monday mornings.

MARINE...Gale Warnings are up for coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet with SCAs in place across almost all of the rest of area waters. Another period of stronger Gales expected Saturday, Storm Force gusts possible over far outer coastal waters.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Though we've seen extensive melting of the snow pack yesterday from a combination of rain and warm temperatures, there remains a threat to black ice and snow/ice refreezing the next few days as temperatures drop well below freezing at night. Have opted not to issue SPS for black ice tomorrow morning with coverage expected to be spotty, but even one patch can cause issues. Early morning drivers FRI should use extra caution, especially in areas that saw rain today, near bridges, and areas next to accumulations of snow that melted some more today. Evening shift may still opt to issue an SPS for this threat.

Key Message 2...Earlier model runs had precip ceasing a few hours ago but light returns remain on radar as moisture flowing in stout mid and upper level trough continues to slide over the incoming SFC high in the wake of the front. Have increased PoPs to the SChc- Chc range for the vast majority of the FA. This means that wintry mix of precip remains possible across the area into tonight with little to no accumulation, and therefor minimal impacts expected. Chances wane from W to E through this evening. This precip threat should end as the trough axis aloft shifts offshore after sunset. Have all land areas, including OBX, dry from midnight onward.

Key Message 3...A series of fronts cross the area this weekend leading to a brief warm up FRI with MaxTs getting back into the mid to upper 40s as SFC flow shifts to prefrontal SWerly WAA regime second half of the day. This wind shift and mostly sunny skies should get rid of a large amount of the lingering snowpack across the FA. Strong CAA develops behind the front with gusty NWerly SFC winds aided by rapidly strengthening MidLevel Jet directly overhead. This will usher in another round of very cold air which could break Record MinTs Sun and Mon morning. See CLIMATE section below for a few local records.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Primarily VFR conditions are noted across ENC with ceilings at about 3.5-5.5 kft with the lone exception being across the OBX and immediate coast seeing MVFR ceilings at 2-3 kft this evening. Any left over MVFR ceilings are forecast to push offshore over the next several hours with MVFR potentially hanging around as late as 06Z across Hatteras Island. In addition to the low end VFR and MVFR ceilings, widely scattered light rain or a SNPL mix is noted generally along and east of Hwy 17 as a mid level shortwave tracks across the area. Don't expect much impact from any of this activity as ENC has remained above freezing this evening so any SNPL mix would melt on contact with the ground but this activity could briefly reduce ceilings/vis before pushing offshore by about 03/04Z.

Once leftover MVFR ceilings are gone, expect VFR conditions into Fri evening with skies clearing towards daybreak before high and mid clouds begin to enter the picture again from the NW Fri afternoon. Then as a potent mid level disturbance dives SE'wards across the Mid-Atlantic expect ceilings to begin to lower further potentially to MVFR heights as early as Fri evening with a chance at some light rain mainly across our northern tier, though showers could get as far south as EWN/OAJ overnight Fri. Winds remain light through the period generally 10 kts or less.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR Saturday morning a cold front moves through bringing gusty winds and potentially a drop to MVFR ceilings ahead of it. High pressure builds in later Saturday bringing back VFR conditions.

MARINE

Behind a cold front winds have increased to N 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts across larger inland waters, 20-30G35-40kt coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet. Gale Warnings in effect where appropriate. Conditions will begin to improve by early tomorrow morning, and winds will subside quickly to NW 10-20 kts after sunrise. Seas are mostly 6-8ft late this afternoon and will increase slightly more until winds begin to subside after midnight local. Waves subside to 4-6 ft by late tomorrow morning.

Outlook: After a brief window of improving conditions, strong winds will again develop over the coastal waters Friday night as a strong Arctic front moves through the region. Strong Gale conditions are expected, and will persist into Sunday morning. Storm Force gusts possible over outer reaches of coastal waters. Seas peak 7-12ft overnight Saturday night. Gale Watches have been issued for waters not currently under any Gale Headlines for this weekend.

CLIMATE

Record low temps for 2/8 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15/1947 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 11/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 14/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 15/1977 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 10/1977 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 15/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1970 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15/1970 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12/1934 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 10/1970 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 16/1995 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18/1995 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Friday for AMZ131-137-230- 231. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ135. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for AMZ150. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158.