textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A potential changeover to snow on Sunday remains uncertain, but the best chances for any accumulation look to be inland over the coastal plain.

Another Arctic blast expected early next week with lows/winds chills in the teens.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Bitter cold this morning with wind chills dropping to around 15 degrees through 9 am.

2) Cold rain expected Sunday with the potential for a change over to snow with some minor accumulations possible.

3) Another Arctic blast expected early next week with lows and wind chills in the teens Monday through Wednesday mornings.

3) MARINE: Gale conditions persist across the coastal waters early this morning, but conditions quickly improve later today.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures have fallen into the 20s across ENC as an Arctic airmass continues to build in. Wind chills have dropped into the upper teens in some spots, and temps/wind chills will continue to decrease through sunrise this morning with wind chills bottoming out around 15 degrees. Temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 40s this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A potentially favorable upper air pattern for winter weather will develop this weekend with a very deep and cold upper level trough reaching down to the GOA. As this trough pivots eastward Saturday into Sunday, a surface low is expected to form along a surface boundary off the SE coast, and deepen as it moves offshore Sunday. Models continue to show a wide range with the sfc low track along/off the NC coast which will ultimately determine the extent of snowfall across the region, which has not lead to increasing confidence with this system. If the low forms too close to the coast not enough cold air will be in place for any wintry precip except for across the northern coastal plain, while a solution farther offshore would allow for sufficient cold air to change rain to snow across much of ENC.

Current thinking is that precip will begin as rain early Sunday, then potentially change over to snow for a time as the low pulls away from the area and low level NW flow increases allowing the column to cool sufficiently. Guidance still showing wide range of liquid precip amounts from as little as 0.1"-0.2", to nearly an inch in the wettest model. As for accumulating snowfall, there remains ensemble support for up to an inch or two, with a majority of the deterministic guidance showing less than a half inch of accumulation. A quick warm up into the 60s on Saturday, will likely limit snow accumulations due to warmer ground temps. We will continue to closely monitor the trends for this system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the low pressure system Sunday, leading to well below normal conditions Monday through Wednesday. Low temps will reach the upper teens to low 20s, and when factoring in wind chills it will feel like 10-20 degrees each morning. Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest and could meet Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions forecast across all of ENC through Friday night. High pressure located to the south and west of the Carolinas will continue to slide E'wards and push offshore by midday. This will allow steady NW'rly winds at 5-10 kts to become light and variable, potentially calm at times near daybreak. Winds then become SW'rly this afternoon and increase to 5-10 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts across much of ENC. Will note one exception to this is across the OBX, where stronger NW'rly winds of 15-20 kts with gusts up near 25 kts are currently noted. These elevated winds will ease to 5-10 kts by this morning before also becoming SW'rly at 10-15 kts this afternoon and evening. Other than some spotty cirrus not expecting much cloud cover through about midnight Sat.

Outlook: High pressure remains offshore on Sat with increasing mid and even some low clouds and cont swrly breezes as a coastal trough sets up. Cloud cover looks most concentrated by the OBX and immediate coast with clearer skies inland. A weak low pres system and cold front couple to produce rain possibly changing to a ra/sn mix later Sun before ending Sun evening. Sub VFR conditions are possible with this system, but quite a bit of uncertainty on whether any snow accums at this time. Dry high pres returns Mon/Tues with a return to VFR conditions across all of ENC.

MARINE

Gale conditions will persist across most of the coastal waters for the next few hours with Small Craft conditions elsewhere before conditions quickly improve later this morning.

Unfortunately, tranquil conditions won't last long, and by this evening winds will again be increasing, this time out of the SW. SCAs will likely be needed for the warmer coastal waters where frequent wind gusts of 25-30 kts are expected tonight through most of Saturday. Elsewhere conditions will remain below criteria and generally SW 10-20 kts. A period of 6 ft seas are likely Saturday over the Gulf Stream waters.

Outlook: A brief period of improving conditions will develop Saturday night with Small Craft conditions likely returning to portions of the coastal waters Sunday through Tuesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ131- 136-137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ135- 150. Gale Warning until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ152-154- 156-158.