textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have inc pops for Sat into Sun, with slight chance to chance of non-severe storms.

01/18Z Aviation Disco updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure remains in place on Friday with light winds and near-record high temps. Chance for widespread, some locally dense, fog tonight.

2) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system bringing scattered to at times widespread showers this weekend.

3) Cool high pressure behind the early week FROPA leads to more fall-like temps, but a prolonged period of moderate N-NEerly winds poses localized coastal flooding concerns for areas along the OBX with compromised dune structures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fog development likely late tonight into Fri morning with mostly SKC, decoupled winds, and RHs already around 100%. Fog may become dense at times and a dense fog advisory may be needed in spots. REFS and HREF data suggest A 50-70% chance for VIS < 1/4mi across most of ENC outside of the immediate coast and far Nern tier of counties. As a result, have a mix of patchy and areas of fog in the grids across much of ENC in the early morning hours.

Upper ridging will peak over the Mid- Atlantic Friday before pushing offshore with the approach of an upper level trough in the Ohio River Valley that will push east as well. High temps could flirt with record highs given the set up (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).

For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees, and forecast highs are in the low 90s inland. Persistent southerly flow and increasing low- level moisture will lead to muggier lows as well, well above Normal, mid to upper 60s FRI and SAT mornings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...No real changes in forecast thinking this weekend as precipitation chances return as Gulf moisture opens up and a cold front drapes across the Sern Appalachians and pushes SEward slowly on SAT. As the next wave aloft approaches, the moisture will squeeze into ENC, elevating rain chances for the weekend. While thunderstorms will be possible, the threat for severe weather is very low as ML CAPES are quite low, unsurprising for early Oct.

The front loses steam as it approaches the coast and stalls, ahead of a second reinforcing front spurred from the Great Lakes by a stronger trough aloft. For now, ensemble guidance has increased to 60-75% chance of exceeding 1" of storm total rain with this system. Any rain will be helpful, especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is currently in moderate to extreme drought.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Precip chances now diminish quickly late Sun night and by Mon morning should be pushing off the OBX with drying conditions expected early next week. Stiff NEerly breeze (peaking MON night into TUE) will lead to building seas and elevated water levels. Astronomical tide levels will luckily be on the way down, but seas building to 7ft, though relatively choppy periodicity of 7 sec, but enough to lead to further beach and dune erosion concerns across the areas with severely diminished dune structures. Latest 01/12Z model suite has trended a bit lower with winds fortunately, and will have to watch if this is a continuing trend. strongest winds of 20-25 kt with higher gusts now expected Mon night. Winds remain out of the N-NE into late- week, but speeds diminish to 10-15kt later Tue and beyond.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR flight cats currently with sct diurnal strato cu. Threat for LIFR fog and low stratus again, esp wrn terminals, mainly between 08-13Z. After daybreak, expect any fog to dissipate and VFR conditions to return to all of ENC and persist through the day.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): Precipitation chances increase for the weekend as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. Showers and maybe a few non strong/severe storms possible Saturday and Sunday with the potential for more extended periods of sub- VFR conditions.

MARINE

Benign boating conditions continue across ENC with light serly 5-10 kt winds and 1-3 ft seas across our area waters as high pressure ridging continues to gradually push offshore. Winds will veer to a S-SW direction by this eve while remaining at about 5-10 kts. Seas generally remain around 1-3 ft at 9-10 sec into Fri.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): By the weekend, a front will be approaching the area from the NW and pass through with winds turning NNE and inc a bit to 10-20 kt for nrn marine zones by afternoon. Increasing moisture plus weak instability lead to widespread showers with a few storms. At this time, conditions look to remain below SCA levels through the weekend, but a secondary front moves through Monday with SCA winds appearing likely later Mon into Tue with 15-25 kt winds and seas of 6+ ft.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 10/02 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 93/1986 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 89/1986 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 94/1986 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 88/1954 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 95/1986 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/1986 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.