textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant chances with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerously hot and humid conditions through the 4th of July weekend into early next week.

2) A more active pattern takes shape next week, bringing rain back into the forecast early to at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will build into ENC from the north and west today into early next week. High impact heat and humidity is expected, as the peak of it will be during the busy 4th of July holiday weekend (Saturday through Monday) with highs expected to reach well into the 90s inland, possibly reaching 100 in some locales, with upper 80s to mid 90s beaches. The combination of the heat and humidity will push heat indices towards the 105-110 degree range or slightly higher this weekend. Overnight lows will also be warm due to the increased Tds, with MinTs around 80 near the coast, and mid 70s interior.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of ENC today, only locations not included in the advisory are Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and immediate coastal zones of the Crystal Coast, where the seabreeze circ is expected to keep advisory criteria just out of the forecast, but MaxAppTs in these zones will still be hot,in the 90s to lower 100 degree range.

An Extreme Heat Watch also remains in effect for SAT in zones generally N of HWY70 where MaxAppT values reach into the 110-115deg range. Another Heat Advisory WILL be needed for the Holiday and remain probable SUN through MON, possibly lingering into TUE of next week.

NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values peak Saturday into Monday in the major range with some extreme risk areas inland. The probability for extreme heat risk has increased slightly on Saturday with highest probs around 60-80% across northern counties. The probabilities remain similar Sunday through Monday peaking around 40-60% across northern sections and 20-40% south with the compounding days and little relief during the nighttime periods. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside this weekend into early next week should monitor the forecast trends. With the ridge of high pressure overhead, a cap will bring little to no shower or thunderstorm relief through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Return to a pattern of increased shower and tstorms chances next week. A series of shortwaves, inland troughing, and a very slow moving backdoor front will eventually cross the FA mid-week leading to a diurnally driven, summer- time PoP forecast through much of the long-term period. TUE currently has the highest PoPs (50-70% TUE afternoon) when moisture peaks ahead of the front and a pair of shortwave troughs aloft traverse NE CONUS.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Pred VFR expected through the TAF period with high pressure dominating. Cannot rule out shallow ground fog developing during the pre-dawn hours at a few locations but should have little impact to operations and dissipate quickly after sunrise. Guidance showing southern sections (inc. OAJ) having the best chance of seeing reduced vsbys this morning.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): Dry weather is expected to prevail with pred VFR conditions through Sunday, but could see patchy fog during the early morning hours. Upper ridge breaks down Monday with shortwave energy bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions both Mon and Tue.

MARINE

Latest obs show S to SW winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 ft, which will continue through the morning. Thermal gradients tighten some this afternoon and evening with winds increasing to around 10-15 kt with seas around 2-3 ft with up to 4 ft possible across the outer zones.

Outlook (Saturday through Monday): The Bermuda high remains dominant into the weekend with light winds 5-15 kt and seas around 2-3 ft. Bermuda high pulls offshore late Sunday into Monday with a front slowly dropping south across the Mid- Atlantic serving to tighten gradients a bit and expect winds to increase to around 10-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 7/3 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 98/1954 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 93/2014 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 100/2019 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 92/1998 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 102/1954 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 96/2019 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 7/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/2023 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 94/2020 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 93/1997 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 104/1902 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 98/1993 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 7/5 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 99/1990 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 92/2018 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 100/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 93/2020 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 104/1902 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 97/1990 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203. Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NCZ029-044>047-080-094-193. MARINE...None.