textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming and mostly dry conditions will continue through mid next week. There is a low end potential for record high temps this weekend into early next week.

2) The next frontal system approaches the area late next week, with increasing precip chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure transits across the Eastern Seaboard and sets up offshore over the weekend and early next week. This will allow for S'rly flow to set up and for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA. As a result, a warming and drying trend is forecast into early next week. MaxTs in the 70s today, then warming into the low to mid 80s SAT, upper 80s inland SUN, and 90s to start next work-week. While we will likely remain below record high temps this weekend and into early next week, we will be close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next frontal system approaches the area late next week. Still quite a bit of model spread (timing and moisture) this far out, but this will bring the next best chances for precip.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period as high pressure builds over the Carolinas in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Gusty NW winds up to 15 kt likely this morning and afternoon, especially across the inner coastal plain. Winds collapse around sunset and remain calm through the night. Despite clear skies and calm winds, moisture profiles are not supportive of widespread fog or stratus. Some patchy instances cannot be ruled out around dawn Sat.

Outlook (Friday night through Monday): We quickly transition back to a summer-like regime this weekend. This means a daily seabreeze, however Bermuda high pressure will be quite strong, and thus any chance of showers or storms is very low into early next week.

MARINE

Latest obs show moderate N-NNW surge 10-20 kt ongoing early this morning, with seas 3-5 ft. Dropped SCA for the central waters based on obs. NW winds will grad diminish through the day, as high pressure builds over the waters, mainly 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. Winds will grad back overnight becoming SSW 5-15 kt.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): High pressure sets up offshore, allowing for typical summertime pattern along with a mostly dry and warming forecast into the weekend. Mostly S-SW winds through the period with high pressure offshore. Light to moderate SSW winds in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes. Seas generally remaining 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.