textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Progression of rain in the near term has sped up leading to a longer dry period over the weekend lasting into early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Overcast skies with relatively light rain lingering along the coast into Saturday morning before a weak low pushing out to sea can pull moisture away from the area leading to clearing conditions with warming temps for remainder of weekend.

2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing brief rainfall.

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions likely to last into Saturday morning.

Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer coastal waters Cape to Cape tonight and Saturday. Next period of likely widespread SCA conditions SUN night into TUE.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front pushed S of the FA earlier this morning, shifting winds from SW to N behind it. Area of heaviest and most widespread rainfall is currently pushing off the coast with some lighter though more scattered precip will remain possible into SAT morning. SAT, the shortwave aloft begins to push offshore which will aid in the further organization of a weak low to develop and ride the Gulf Stream slowly NEward through the day SAT. This low will act to pull clouds and moisture offshore away from the the area through the day SAT and SAT night, which will help dry out the next frontal passage expected SUN night into MON. Winds briefly become SWerly ahead of the next front, allowing MaxTs SUN to get into the low 70s under sunny skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid- Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to be a bit lower for this system compared to today's with the low traveling along the boundary passing to the W and N of the FA. Limited coverage of SChc to Chc PoPs late MON and TUE with dry weather mid to late-week. Temps warm in generally Serly flow this period with MaxTs getting into the upper 70s and maybe even 80s FRI.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Light to moderate showers are ongoing east of Highway 17 due to a lingering frontal boundary. The rain and cool northeasterly flow are sustaining widespread sub-VFR conditions with the majority of terminals reporting IFR/LIFR. The rain is expected to move offshore this evening, but IFR/LIFR stratus will hang on through tomorrow morning. Areas of fog are expected to develop late tonight with VIS down to 1-3 SM at times. Some guidance is more aggressive with lower VIS, but light winds may keep us mixed enough to preclude dense fog. Flight cats should improve to MVFR by late morning/early afternoon tomorrow.

Outlook: Away from the OBX, conditions should improve to VFR by late Saturday afternoon. Along the OBX, sub-VFR CIGs may linger through the day with fog developing along the NOBX and expanding southwestward through the evening. A cold front will then move through Sunday afternoon or evening, bringing a northerly wind shift and our next chance for sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

NEerly winds 10-15G20kt behind front to the S of area waters. moving through the region. Rain lingering into early SAT until low pressure traveling along the boundary works NEward up the GStream through the day pulling moisture away from the area. Some sea fog possible, most notably over Nern waters overnight into SAT morning. NEerly winds will approach SCA criteria over FAR outer waters Cape to Cape overnight and through much of the day SAT. Would issue SCA if areal coverage coverage or duration were more sustained, but the 25kt gusts are forecast to bounce in and out of the 20nm zones through the near term. Nerly winds weaken to be AoB 10kt SUN before becoming SWerly ahead of the next front the cross area waters SUN night into MON morning.

Buoy data show seas generally 3-4ft@5-8sec with some increase overnight into SAT with the winds. Seas fall into SUN becoming 2-3ft before quickly building again.

Outlook: Next period of widespread SCA likely SUN night into early next week as strong NEerly surge fills in behind front. NEerly winds 15-25G30KT building seas 6-8ft, 8-9ft over Cape to Cape outer waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.