textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High confidence continues for a Major Winter Storm to develop this weekend across the Carolinas, with a wide range of snowfall totals within eastern NC.

Winter Storm Watches have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for all of Eastern North Carolina. Have kept Blizzard Condition mentions for eastern coastal counties.

Storm Watches have been upgraded to Storm Warnings for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (upgraded to Gale Warning) starting Saturday evening.

High Wind Warnings in effect for all OBX zones and Downeast Carteret county. Wind Advisories in effect for Mainland Dare and Hyde, Tyrrell, Washington, Pamlico, Southern Craven, and Western Carteret counties starting Saturday evening.

Coastal Flood Warning for the Outer Banks. Coastal Flood watch remains for Downeast.

Climate section added for potential record lows early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Major Winter Storm to develop across the Carolinas this weekend, as an area of low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast.

a) Heavy Snow:

Several inches of snow is expected across all of Eastern NC, with some swaths seeing up to 12-18" where banding occurs. Snow rates of up to 1-2" per hour are possible. Strong winds will coincide with the heaviest snow rates, which will produce near whiteout conditions at times, and even blizzard conditions along the eastern NC coast (including OBX). Mean snowfall totals trended down along the coast, but high end potential still exists.

b) Wind:

A rapidly deepening bomb cyclone will produce very strong winds across Eastern NC, especially the coast. Peak wind gusts will likely reach 35-45 mph inland, and 55-65 mph along the coast and OBX early Sunday morning. These winds along the Outer Banks could result in scattered power outages and some weaker trees blown down.

c) Extreme Cold:

More extreme cold is expected during and after the winter storm, with wind chills likely falling below 0 Sunday and Monday mornings, with little reprieve in the daytime Sunday.

d) Coastal Flooding:

Potential for moderate to locally significant coastal flooding for areas along the Outer Banks and adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound.

2) MARINE...Extremely dangerous marine conditions expected this weekend as a low pressure system deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Storm conditions are expected for most waters, along with wave heights 10-20 feet for coastal waters.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1a-1b... A major winter storm will unfold this weekend across the Carolinas as an area of low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Confidence remains high and continues to increase that much of the area will see several inches of snow, with some spots seeing a foot or more of snow. Recent mesoscale models have brought to light the potential for some dry slotting to occur as this low forms up and progresses NE'word. This dry slotting could certainly throw a wrench in the current forecast as the location and extent is unclear. In addition, along the coast complex interactions with any storms along the Gulf Stream could rob coastal communities of the moisture needed for higher snow rates. While a higher end potential of 1+ feet of snow still exists along the coast, the current forecast has trended down to 5-8" south of Oregon Inlet to Surf City. North of Oregon Inlet (NOBX), there is still ample support of higher snowfall totals, reflected in the current forecast of 8-12".

In addition to the potential major impacts of the heavy snow, very strong winds will develop as the low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. These strong winds will further reduce visibilities, leading to blowing and drifting snow, and could lead to blizzard conditions developing across the Eastern NC coast (including OBX).

Potential Life Threatening Situations: The combination of these hazards will make travel impossible and could lead to life threatening situations if motorists become stranded due to the extreme cold temperatures that will move in Sunday morning. Additionally, scattered power outages are possible due to strong winds/heavy snow knocking down power lines and/or trees. Power restoration may be slow due to treacherous road conditions, and residents should prepare for the potential for longer term power outages with extremely cold temperatures outside.

Historically, this storm's setup is most like the December 24, 1989 and early March 1980 storms. Both of these historic events produced 12+" of snow for Eastern North Carolina with accumulations from the March 1980 storm nearing 24" in some areas. While there's potential for this weekend's snow accumulations to be comparable to these past events, keep in mind that the aforementioned dry slot and Gulf Stream interactions bring the potential for lower snowfall totals. We are still more than 30 hours out from when the heaviest snow is expected to fall, which means there's still room for adjustments (up or down) in the accumulation forecast depending on mesoscale factors. However, with the probabilities of higher snow amounts continuing, the higher end amounts should not be taken lightly when thinking about storm preparation. No matter how much snow falls, it will not melt quickly due to the extremely cold air that will build in behind this system. Temperatures aren't expected to approach freezing until Monday, but some areas may not get above freezing until Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1c... Extremely cold air will stick around behind the winter storm with the potential to set additional new record low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows will be 10-20F Sunday night/Monday morning with dangerously cold wind chills in the sub- zero to single digit range. High temperatures will be around freezing on Monday, but it's possible some inland areas to remain below freezing from tonight until Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1d... The combination of very strong winds, wave action and high astronomical tides will lead to moderate to locally significant coastal flooding impacts, both soundside and oceanside. Impacts will likely begin on the oceanside and transition to soundside as winds back from NE to NW Sat afternoon into Sun. This will likely lead to travel impacts for vulnerable portions of NC-12, especially for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret county, with potential for 2-4 ft of inundation (above ground level). At this time, greatest oceanside impacts expected from Duck to Ocracoke...and soundside impacts from Rodanthe to Downeast Carteret. Minor to locally moderate water rises possible for areas adjacent to the southern Albemarle Sound and particularly up the Neuse River. High Surf Advisories have been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck, and additional CF related products will be needed as well with future updates.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR flight cats through much of the TAF period. MVFR ceilings will begin to creep in from 00z to 06z on Sat, with even some light snow breaking out after 06-08Z Sat. Light nerly breezes today into this evening, then gusting 15-22kt by early Sunday morning.

Outlook: This weekend, an extended period of poor flying conditions as a coastal low develops and brings significant snow, poor visibilities, and potential blowing and drifting snow due to wind gusts of 35-40 kt to inland East NC. CIGs will begin to decrease from offshore Wward FRI evening with MVFR CIGs likely with some potential for lower categories. VIS, especially during heaviest snowfall and with the strong winds blowing accumulated snow, will likely be IFR at best, with LIFR or VLIFR having strong potential. Snowfall cessation and falling off of winds expected through the day SUN, though snow on ground will linger into early next week.

MARINE

A brief window of good boating conditions is expected through this evening with winds N to NE at 10-20 kts, and seas 2-4 ft.

Outlook: A rapidly deepening low pressure system and potentially bomb cyclone will produce extremely dangerous marine conditions tonight through the weekend. Storm force winds of 40-50 kts are expected with the potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts (64+ kts) across portions of the coastal waters. Seas could reach 15-20 ft.

Storm Warnings have been issued for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (Gale Warning) starting Saturday evening. Conditions will slowly improve Sunday night with winds forecast to drop below SCA criteria by Monday afternoon. 6+ ft seas may linger into Tuesday morning.

CLIMATE

Record Low temps for 02/02 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 19 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 20 1977 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12 1971 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 13 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 16 1980 (NCA ASOS)

Record Low temps for 02/03 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 9 1917 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 12 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for NCZ029-044-045-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198- 199. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198. Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196- 198-199-203. Wind Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NCZ045- 081-094-194-195. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for NCZ046-047-196-203. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for NCZ046- 047. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for NCZ196. High Wind Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NCZ196. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM Saturday to midnight EST Sunday night for NCZ203>205. High Wind Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ203-205. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Storm Warning from 9 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131-135-137-230-231. Gale Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ136. Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150. Storm Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152- 154-156. Storm Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ158.