textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will settle over the Carolinas through today before shifting offshore tonight. A moisture-starved cold front will cross the region Sunday afternoon, followed by a brief surge of cold air to start the upcoming week. A second cold front moves through Tuesday with high pressure building in behind it. A warming trend is expected Wednesday onwards as the high pressure shifts offshore.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 1230 AM Saturday...

Early Morning: Latest surface analysis shows a 1023mb high centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley, with ridging extending NE'ward over the Carolinas. The tight pressure gradient that brought 30-40 mph gusts earlier today has relaxed substantially. Expect winds to continue to be decoupled inland through daybreak, though a light NW becoming NE breeze may persist along the coast. Lows this morning will drop to around 30F inland and upper 30s to low 40s for the coast in this CAA regime.

Saturday: High pressure will be nearly overhead by midday. With nearly zonal flow aloft and a very dry airmass in place (PWATs 0.25-0.5"), skies will be clear to mostly sunny. Low-level thickness values support highs right around climo, generally in the low to mid 50s. Winds will be light, initially from the northeast before veering to the east by late afternoon as the high center begins to slide offshore.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 1245 AM Saturday... Key Messages:

- Lows in the mid 30s inland, 40s along the coast

- Watching shallow fog potential Saturday night/Sunday morning

The surface high moves offshore Saturday evening, allowing for a return of southwest flow and weak WAA. Much of the night will be calm and clear, allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Increasing dewpoints in the return flow regime HREF may favor shallow fog formation once you account for the radiational cooling setup. Lows will be dependent on the extent of the warm air and moisture advection, but generally expect mid to upper 30s inland, 40s along the coast. Chances of temps below freezing is low considering the higher dewpoints Saturday night compared to 24 hours prior.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 130 AM Saturday... Key Messages:

- Dry cold front Sunday with a brief cool-down Monday.

- Second cold front Tuesday brings 20-30% chance of light rain

- Warming trend mid/late week

Sunday through Monday: A quick hitting moisture-starved cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday. Pre-frontal southerly flow will allow temperatures to rebound nicely; highs should reach the low 60s inland, 50s along the coast. The front is expected to cross the area Sunday afternoon/evening. Moisture confined to a shallow layer means we are carrying a dry forecast. Behind the front, a cold airmass will build in. Monday morning lows will be in the upper 20s inland, 30s for beaches with a light northerly wind while highs Monday will struggle to reach 50. Monday night looks like a prime radiational cooling night with calm winds and mostly clear skies (lows upper 20s inland, near 40 for beaches)

Tuesday through Friday: Another cold front comes through late Tuesday. This front may have a bit more moisture to work with, and guidance has trended up slightly regarding the chance of showers. Rainfall amounts look light (<0.10"). However, This front doesn't look to have as much cold air behind it. Plus, the flow looks to flip back to southerly fairly quickly in its wake. By Thursday (Christmas Day), the eastern Carolinas will be firmly entrenched in south-to-southwest flow. Ensemble guidance is in high agreement of temperatures above seasonal normals. Highs for Christmas Day are currently projected to reach the mid to upper 60s, with some spots possibly hitting 70. Christmas day, a mid-level high over the gulf states will have a shortwave riding the northern extent of it. There may be enough moisture for some light rain to impact the northern portion of the forecast area. This is a relatively new development in fcst models, with the NBM with its typical lagging bias not representative. Put in Schc PoPs for the Albemarle Sound vicinity to cover the chance of brief period of light rain Christmas day with the ridge rider. For most however, the holiday, and Friday, looks to be dry and warm.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1215 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours

High pressure will build in over the next 12-18 hours, and will be accompanied by a dry airmass. This is expected to lead to light and variable winds, and limited cloudcover. High pressure slides offshore Saturday night with a light southerly flow developing. A subtle increase in low-level moisture may lead to FEW to SCT low clouds and potentially a risk of reduced VIS due to BR. Significant aviation impacts are not expected over the next 24 hours, though.

Outlook: A cold front will move through ENC on Sunday, with a SW to NW wind shift occurring during the afternoon hours. Strong winds are not expected with this wind shift. High pressure then builds back in Sunday night into Monday with VFR conditions likely. The next opportunity for sub VFR conditions looks to be Monday night through Tuesday night as the next cold front moves through with better moisture. Isolated to scattered SHRA may accompany this front as well.

MARINE

As of 2 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Conditions gradually improving across the waters today and tonight

- 20-30kt wind gusts Sunday night into Monday behind front

- 20-30kt wind gusts along Gulf Stream late Tuesday behind another cold front

Winds continue diminishing this morning with latest obs showing NW winds 5-15 kt across the nearshore waters and 15-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt along the Gulf Stream, while seas have subsided to 3-6 ft. High pressure builds today with winds becoming light and seas dropping to 2-4 ft. Saturday night winds become SW'rly, remaining below 20 kts, and seas still at 2-4 ft.

Outlook: A series of cold fronts will move through the ENC waters from Sunday through Tuesday, each one with a bump up in winds and seas. The next best chance for SCAs will be Sunday night into Monday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ152- 154-156-158.