textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances for snow are on the downtrend for Friday

Have cancelled the small craft advisory between Ocracoke and Cape Lookout

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hazardous cold continues tonight with the Cold Weather Advisory remaining in effect for portions of ENC.

2) Tracking the potential for light snow on Friday for portions of Eastern NC.

MARINE...SCA conditions continue, with conditions improving tonight before the next set of possible SCA conditions on Tue night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Not much change in the forecast as an Arctic high pressure system has settled in over the Mid-Atlantic this morning once again bringing cold and windy conditions to ENC with the coldest and windiest conditions felt across NE NC and the OBX. Temps are already in the teens to low 20s and are forecast to get down into the teens across much of the area with low 20s across the OBX. While winds will be weaker compared to previous days, winds chills will still fall into ColdWx Advisory criteria for portions of the FA. Wind chills will be coldest (6-10 degrees) over NOBX, Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. NEern mainland zones will see Min Wind Chill temps around 8-14deg in the early morning hours. Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for these locations including the Outer Banks from Duck south through Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and mainland Dare and Hyde Counties, Tyrrell, and Washington Counties. While there could be a few brief periods of sub 15 degree wind chill values across other portions of the FA tonight, think it will be more isolated and short lived in nature so did not expand the cold weather advisory. Either way this does not take away how cold it will be tonight with the rest of the area seeing wind chills generally stay around 15-20 degrees.

Lows will approach, but are currently forecast to remain above records tonight, see the CLIMATE section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will track across ENC around mid week and stall to the south extending into the Desert Southwest. As this occurs, a weak low will develop along this boundary in the Southern Plains and track ENE to NE'wards in the following days reaching the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. This low has the potential to bring some light snow to portions of ENC mainly north of Hwy 264 Fri morning. However, recent trends suggest a more inland route for this approaching low which would put the area in the warm sector thus limiting any potential snowfall. Given there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with this system trends will need to be monitored over the next day or two. The other fly in the ointment for this forecast is temperatures. They will be critical in whether or not we see snow or rain across ENC on Fri or if snow can even stick to the ground given how warm we will be prior to this low pressure systems arrival.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow morning with mostly clear skies through tonight, and then increasing mid level clouds early tomorrow morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions will likely continue through Thursday with high pressure over the area. A weak cold front moving through the region Wednesday could provide some brief periods of MVFR. Better chances at sub-VFR conditions will come late this week as a low pressure system brings a mix of rain and snow to the area.

MARINE

Winds have continued to ease as a strong low pressure continues to track further out into the open waters of the North Atlantic while an Arctic high pressure system settles in overhead. This has resulted in widespread 10-15 kt NW-NE winds across much of our waters outside of the coastal waters from Ocracoke to Duck where 15-20 kt winds and gusts to 25-30 kts remain. Backswell from the departing low is also impacting these same waters bringing 6-9 ft seas to the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet as well. As a result have kept the SCA's up across these waters with all other waters now headline free. Generally expect winds to continue to ease across all waters becoming light while backing to a W-SW direction at 5-10 kts by this evening as high pressure shifts offshore. Seas will be a bit slower to lower, generally remaining around 4-7 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet through this afternoon keeping SCA's in place. Seas will then gradually lower through tonight down to 3-5 ft by Tue morning thus briefly ending SCA conditions.

Outlook: High pressure will continue to gradually push further out to sea on Tuesday while a cold front approaches. This will tighten the pressure gradient allowing for SW'rly winds to increase to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts noted mainly along the Gulf Stream waters while seas build to 4-6 feet near the Gulf stream. This will bring a return of SCA conditions to portions of our coastal waters mainly south of Oregon Inlet. A cold front will move through the waters Wednesday with winds turning to the NW/N through the end of the work week with marginal Small Craft conditions possible. A low pressure system is poised to work from SW to NE across the southeast US the latter half of this weekend.

CLIMATE

Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1970 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15/1970 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12/1934 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 10/1970 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 16/1995 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18/1995 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ045>047-081-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154.