textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued the trend of increasing pops Friday ahead of a cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through Thursday.

2) Chance of more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms on Friday ahead of a cold front.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the fropa for this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and synoptic setups through the period. Where guidance is fairly well clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be shifting east out of the Central U.S. While there is still some potential for a cutoff low to develop, most guidance has now trended towards more of a progressive and open wave as it moves through the Eastern U.S. Before that happens, low level flow will be from a moist easterly direction over the next several days, which will advect favorable regime for on and off light rain, esp for the coastal areas through Thursday. Continued to increase pops a bit along the coast to account for isolated to widely scattered showers, best chances during diurnal heating, through mid week. ENC will cont under influence of e to se flow and hence a daily chance for widely sct showers. Don't expect much in the way of accums, but enough to wet the ground in places, esp the further east in ENC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most guidance is now centering on the best chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms moving in Friday. Perhaps some WAA showers on Thu with warm front migrating through, as well as perhaps a rumble of thunder as well, but main forcing mechanism for showers and storms arrives Friday ahead of a cold front. Of note, some guidance shows anomalous moisture and higher- than- normal instability for early November, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. This would support the potential of some higher rainfall rates and totals should this materialize. A few stronger storms may even materialize if timing of showers arrives in the afternoon coinciding with peak heating. The other aspect of the forecast that appears to be coming more clear this week is the potential for above to well above normal temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday, and esp during the overnight periods. While record highs may not be broken, warming low- level thicknesses in advance of the approaching trough should support highs warming into the 70s, with some low 80s possible inland. Meanwhile, overnight lows are forecast to be closer to our normal highs for this time of year. Some record warm lows may be in jeopardy. For reference, normal highs are 65-70 for early November, with normal lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Better agreement amongst 00z model guidance with fropa now late Friday, which will usher in a more seasonably dry airmass for the coming weekend. Return to mo sunny skies and highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours.

An area of stratus clouds at 4-5k ft has persisted for awhile over KISO, KEWN, and KOAJ, and will likely linger for at least another 1- 2 hours. Eventually, more of an easterly flow should help push this stratus west of those TAF sites, but it's unclear how long this will take. Meanwhile, clear skies and light winds around the area of stratus have already led to temporary reductions to VIS at times. The setup overnight appears favorable for longer periods of reductions to VIS due to BR/MIFG/FG through early Tuesday morning, and the TAFs continue to reflect this expectation. Drier air above the surface should lead to less low-level cloudcover on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, another round of BR/MIFG/FG appears possible thanks to radiational cooling of a moist boundary layer. At the same time, though, it is unclear whether stratus or BR/MIFG/FG will be favored. A sharpening coastal trough edging towards the coast suggests more of a stratus setup vs BR/FG. Regardless, the key takeaway is that there is a potential for sub-VFR conditions once again during that time.

Outlook: Periods of low CIGs and SHRA will be possible off and on Wednesday and Thursday. A more notable risk of SHRA, as well as TSRA, comes on Friday as a cold front moves through. A risk of sub- VFR conditions will likely accompany this front as well. SE/S/SW flow will generally dominate through Friday.

MARINE

High pressure will remain in place to the north with coastal troughing along the coast. Latest obs show NE-E winds 5-15 kt with seas mainly 3-4 ft. Light to moderate NE-E winds will continue through Tuesday (strongest across the southern and central waters). Seas 2-4 ft will continue nearshore and 3-5 ft offshore. Iso to widely sct light showers will be possible through mid week.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Coastal troughing is forecast to remain in place through at least the middle of the week, with the strongest gradient and highest winds focused across the central and southern waters. The flow then begins to become southeasterly by Thursday in the wake of the inland-advancing coastal trough and warm front. Winds will cont in the 10-20 kt range with sub SCA seas. Thursday and beyond, a better chance for some advected 6+ ft seas as weak low pres develops well offshore, though winds will remain below 20 kt. Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds turning nwrly behind the fropa but should cont remaining below SCA thresholds. High 6+ ft seas may linger into Sat however.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.