textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Reissued Winter Weather Advisory for Pamlico, Southern Craven, West Carteret and Coastal Onslow counties as temperatures are not warming as quickly as anticipated.

Small Craft Advisory for the Neuse/Bay Rivers has expired.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A complex low pressure system will pass through ENC today, bringing a threat for freezing rain across inland counties through this morning, followed by a cold front tonight bringing additional rain chances along with a slight chance of thunderstorms along the coast.

2) Cold airmass builds in through much of next week with below normal temperatures forecast with highs in the 30-40 degree range and lows into the teens and 20s. Winds chill forecast to between 5-15 degrees Tuesday morning. Possibly even colder temperatures Thursday and Friday with wind chills approaching 0.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Reissued the Winter Weather Advisory for Pamlico, Southern Craven, West Carteret and coastal Onslow counties through 15z as temps have not warmed as much as anticipated, and some locations have even dropped a degree or two as steadier precip begins to fall. Temps remain around 28-32 except along the immediate coast. We do expect temps to slow rise again as we move through the morning and will expire appropriate zones as conditions dictate.

Light rain and freezing rain is spreading across ENC early this morning with coldest temps across inland areas in the mid to upper 20s. However, along the coast temps have been gradually warming into the 30s and 40s as the offshore front/trough backs toward the area. No big changes to forecast reasoning this morning freezing rain totals up to .10-.20" possible across far inland counties through mid day.

Low pressure developing off the SC/GA coast early this morning will lift across ENC late this morning and early afternoon bringing moderate rain and warming temperatures. Greatest warming will occur along the coast east of the low pressure track where 50s to mid 60s expected this afternoon. West of the low track will see temps gradually increase this morning peaking in the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon. The threat for freezing rain will continue along the US 17 corridor through daybreak while the far inland tier of counties expected to persist through mid-day before temps warm above freezing. Precip expected to taper off this afternoon as the low lifts north of the area but could still see light rain or drizzle as the column remains fairly moist. Another round of moderate rain expected tonight as the cold front pushes through the area bringing strong forcing. Sufficient instability and strong shear will be present along the coast that we could see isolated thunderstorms. Strong CAA will redevelop late tonight behind the front with gusty NW winds with temps falling through the day Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Arctic high pressure will build in behind the departing system through much of the week. Temperatures will be quite a bit below normal, with highs in the 30-45 degree range, and lows in the 15-25 degree range. Wind chill values will be at or below 15 degrees for Monday night and Tuesday morning. A robust upper trough and reinforcing cold front will move through mid week. Moisture is somewhat limited but could see snow showers producing minor accumulations. The air mass behind this front appears even colder, with wind chills approaching 0 for Friday and Saturday mornings.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

MVFR flight cats currently will deteriorate through the overnight as CIGs lower to IFR in the next 2 to 3hrs with spotty VIS reductions due to mixed precipitation from a winter storm moving in, strengthening frontal inversion develops in response to slowly eroding CAD and strong WAA aloft.

Mostly Fzra, though some sleet and snow may be possible, for the interior TAF sites through overnight, and lingering through much of the morning hours for KISO and KPGV while KEWN and KOAJ switch to rain with warming occuring from E to W. IFR or lower to persist through SUN and SUN night. Strong LLWS across all of ENC SUN afternoon through much of the overnight period, on the order of 40-50kt, out of the S-SW at FL020 with SFC winds 5-8kt out of the NNW slowly becoming SWerly.

Outlook: After the front passes offshore early Monday morning, VFR conditions return as Arctic high pressure builds in, lasting through much of next week.

MARINE

Currently seeing E to NE winds around 15-25 kt across most of the waters, however a coastal trough/front is backing into the area and winds have become SE from the Cape Hatteras area southeastward. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Low pressure will lift north along the trough late this morning and afternoon bringing shifting winds around 15-25 kt, and to around 30-35 kt across the coastal waters near the Gulf Stream. Once the low lifts north of the area winds become mainly SW around 15-25 kt through much of the overnight with a strong cold front pushing through late tonight bringing NW winds around 15-25 kt. Seas will be in the range of 6-10 ft through tonight. Sufficient instability present with strong shear that we could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the coastal waters, especially tonight.

Outlook: Behind a strong cold front Monday morning winds will strengthen to NW 20-30 kts through Tuesday morning. Slightly improving conditions expected Tuesday through Wednesday with winds W/NW at 15-25 kts. Another period of stronger winds with marginal Gale Conditions expected Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ029-044-079-090-091. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ045-080-092-193-198. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ094-194-195-199. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ158.