textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Above normal temperatures dominate with mostly dry conditions for ENC through the rest of the week. A cold front will move through this weekend and bring chances for scattered showers.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

As of 2 PM Tuesday...A pretty warm day across ENC despite the cloud cover with temps in the 60s to near 70 in places this afternoon. This has been the biggest challenge today as we have gotten warmer than just about all the guidance has indicated. However, don't expect much warming beyond what we have right now so have highs across ENC getting into the upper 60s to near 70 in places.

Expect a mix of mid and high level cloud cover and dry weather to persist through tonight as a mid level shortwave progresses through the Mid-Atlantic. This will keep us partly to mostly cloudy, though we continue to see a signal for low stratus to develop late tonight into Wed morning. SW'rly breezes will continue this afternoon and into tonight with widespread 5-10 mph breezes with gusts up near 15 mph at times inland and 10-15 mph breezes along the OBX with gusts up around 15-20+ mph at times. This will keep the area mixed and under a WAA regime resulting in rather warm lows for the time of year with temps only getting down into the low to mid 50s tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/

As of 2 PM Tuesday...ENC is forecast to clear out through the morning on Wed as a weak and dry cold front tracks across the area, with this frontal passage occuring sometime Wed afternoon/evening. Out ahead of the front, WAA continues resulting in highs getting to the upper 60s to low 70s across the coastal plain, and low to mid 60s across area beaches with the onshore flow over cold waters. Breezy winds will veer from the southwest to northwest through the day, but otherwise yet another pleasant day is ahead for the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 2 PM Tuesday...

Thursday through Friday...This fropa won`t bring much of a change in sensible weather on Thursday with highs still in the upper 60s to near 70 for the coastal plain and low 60s for the beaches. The boundary will quickly lift back north as a warm front and increase temps on Friday to the mid 70s across the coastal plain and 60s at the beaches.

Saturday through Sunday...Our next cold front will approach the area this weekend. Slight timing differences persist between the models as of this update, so pops remain in the 30-50% range. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week ahead of the front on Saturday with highs in the 70s across the coastal plain and 60s at the beaches. Much cooler air will move in behind the front on Sunday with highs back down to the near climo in the mid 50s.

Early next week...Cool but seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather is forecast for early next week behind the aforementioned front as an upper level trough moves overhead. But, overall no significant weather is currently forecast for this period.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 630 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Chance for brief MVFR/IFR low stratus tonight into Wednesday morning

Predominantly VFR conditions anticipated through midnight with a period of MVFR to IFR conditions possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning. High pressure remains offshore with southwesterly flow across the area. While winds are expected to diminish slightly across ENC overnight, the low-levels will not completely decouple, which should largely inhibit fog development despite dewpoint depressions falling to near zero for several hours late tonight into Wednesday morning. However, a moistening boundary layer underneath a low inversion is forecast to lead to the development of low stratus for at least a brief period of time across most TAF sites. Most guidance advertises at least a few hour period of ceilings in the 1500-3000 kft range, with a low potential (~20%) for ceilings to dip below 1 kft. Highest confidence for seeing sub-VFR ceilings is currently for coastal terminals of OAJ/EWN with lower confidence for PGV/ISO; however, the most recent guidance has backed off slightly on lower ceilings tonight. For now, have left prevailing MVFR groups for all terminals in this TAF cycle, but further adjustments may be needed over the coming hours depending on model/observational trends.

Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions expected beyond Wednesday as dry cold front moves through and high pressure builds in to end the work week into Saturday.

MARINE

As of 2 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Strong SCA winds and high seas on the Gulf Stream waters this evening through Wednesday morning from increasing SW winds. - Improving conditions later Wed into Thu as high pressure builds back in. - Another round of SCA conditions Friday into the weekend with approaching strong cold front.

Tonight through Wednesday...Ongoing S-SW'rly winds at 5-15 kts will increase tonight across the well mixed Gulf Stream waters south of Oregon Inlet, with speeds of 20-30 kt and gusts up around 25-30 kts expected starting around 5PM tonight and persisting into Wed morning as the gradient becomes pinched between high pressure offshore and an approaching cold front. Across the inland sounds/rivers and northern waters, strong marine inversion in place due to the cold water temps is forecast to result in SW'rly winds persisting at about 10-20 kt range tonight into Wed morning. As a result only have a SCA out for the coastal waters from Surf City to Oregon Inlet where best mixing is forecast to occur given water temps. 2-4 ft seas south of Oregon Inlet will also build tonight as well given the stronger winds to 4-7 ft with 1-3 ft seas noted elsewhere. As cold front begins to track across the area Wed afternoon winds and seas quickly ease down to 5-10 kts and 2-4 ft respectively, allowing the SCA's to end by midday Wed. Lighter winds then persist through Wed night at about 5-10 kts coming from a NW'rly direction while seas lower further to 1-3 ft.

Thursday through Friday...High pressure will build back in on Thursday with 5-10 kt NE winds and 1-3 ft seas. Winds will veer to the S on Friday out ahead of the next approaching cold front and increase to 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-4 ft.

Saturday through Sunday...A strong cold front will approach this weekend, increasing S to SW winds and building seas to SCA levels on the warmer gulf waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.