textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will dominate the weather through the first half of the upcoming weekend. High pressure moves offshore by the end of the weekend, with a coastal trough moving inland. A cold front then moves through Sunday night. This will be followed by a notable coastal low impacting the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then briefly returns by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 145 AM Friday...

Key Messages

- The coldest air of the season will remain in place through Saturday

A cold, blustery day is on tap today in the wake of last night's reinforcing cold front. Most areas will struggle to get out of the 40s, which is 15-20 degrees below normal for late November. By tonight, high pressure will begin to nose in leading to a weakening pressure gradient and lighter winds, especially inland. High clouds may begin to move in late tonight, but prior to that, great radiational cooling conditions are expected inland, with lows in the low 20s expected. Light winds plus lows in the 20s should support wind chill values in the teens at times, even near the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 145 AM Friday...

Temperatures will moderate slightly on Saturday, but still remain well below normal for late November. By Saturday evening, light winds beneath strong high pressure may allow a quick drop in temps. However, increasing cloudcover and a developing return flow should prevent lows from getting as cold as tonight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 145 AM Friday...

Key Messages

- Growing signal for a notable coastal low to impact ENC early next week

An active weather pattern appears to be shaping up from late this weekend through the upcoming work week. During this time, upper level troughing is forecast to develop across the central U.S., with southwesterly flow developing aloft across the southern U.S. At the SFC, a notably strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast this weekend, then lift NE through the Southeastern U.S. early next week. More on that momentarily.

Prior to the coastal low, a separate coastal trough is forecast to develop off the ENC coast Saturday night and move inland on Sunday. A cold front is then forecast to sweep SE through the area Sunday night. Increasing low-mid level moisture overspreading the increased forcing with the developing coastal trough looks to support a quick round of light rain Sunday evening-Monday morning.

Attention then turns to the above-mentioned SFC low that is forecast to track NE out of the Gulf Coast States. The majority of guidance now depicts low pressure taking on an inland track as it moves through the Carolinas and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Also noteworthy is that the majority of deterministic guidance have trended deeper with this low, now suggesting a 1000-1005mb low as it moves through ENC. While the signal is growing stronger for a deeper system, not all guidance is quite bought in yet. Namely, ensemble and machine learning guidance, which have a weaker system. All that to say that a strong coastal low appears increasingly likely, but there remains some uncertainty with the track and intensity.

In light of all that, the most likely scenario at this point is for a coastal low to pass inland across ENC, putting our area on the "warmer" side of the system. Not only does this lower the risk of any wintry weather, it also opens the door for some instability to edge closer to the area. The potential for some convective elements, plus a plume of anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of a period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low. Case in point, ensemble guidance now shows a stronger signal for 1"+ of rain. Additionally, various forecast aids like NAEFS and ECMWF's EFI also show a notable signal for heavy rain. The rain is much needed as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. Given the recent dry conditions, the area should be able to handle 1-2", or more, of rain. However, some minor nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out for areas that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rates (where convection occurs).

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we'll have to closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle.

High pressure briefly builds in towards the middle of the week, but this may be short-lived as yet another coastal low may impact the area towards the end of next week.

Temperatures look to be mild on Sunday as southerly flow develops across the area. Temps fall back down on Monday in the wake of Sunday night's cold front. Temperatures then bounce back up on Tuesday (assuming an inland low track). Temperatures then level back off on the cooler side in the wake of the departing low.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 12 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

-VFR through the TAF period, with gusty NW winds Friday afternoon (13kt<gusts<20kt, low 20kts OBX terminals)

VFR flight cats across ENC through Saturday. NW winds persist over the region as high pressure builds in from the west and becomes centered over the area on Saturday. SKC through the day Friday with breezy NWerly winds 10-13G15-19kt during peak heating. Upper level cloud coverage increases from S to N Fri night.

Sun through Mon...The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front approaches, and along with it a chance for subVFR cond developing. Coastal low expected to bring rain to the area Tuesday, subVFR flight cats probable.

MARINE

As of 145 AM Friday...

Key Messages

- SCA in effect for all offshore waters and inland sounds through this afternoon

- Deteriorating marine conditions likely early next week with an increasing threat of Gales

Moderate northwesterly post-frontal winds are expected to linger into this afternoon, and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect to capture this impact. Winds should then lay down more substantially by Saturday as high pressure moves overhead. Relatively light winds are then expected to last into Sunday. Seas of 3-5ft are expected to last into this evening, then lay down to 2-3ft on Saturday, and stay low into Sunday.

Outlook: The primary focus next week will be the increasing signal for a notably strong coastal low to impact the ENC waters Monday night through Tuesday. Most guidance have trended stronger with this low, and our forecast now shows a period of gale-force winds for much of the coastal waters, and widespread 25kt winds elsewhere. It should be noted that on the higher end of guidance, high end gale to storm force winds are within the realm of possibility, especially over the warmer waters adjacent to the Gulf Stream. This should also support building, and impactful, seas. Mariners are encouraged to stay tuned for updates through the weekend regarding this system.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 145 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Fire weather concerns today late morning to evening with gusty winds and low relative humidities.

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe drought conditions with a long duration of little to no rainfall. Dry air continues ushering into the region, allowing relative humidities to drop into the 25-35% range this afternoon. In addition, wind gusts will be near 20-25 mph today. Considering the drought conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall season progresses, we will see an increased potential for fire weather concerns today given the higher winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ131- 135-150-152-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ154- 156.