textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have ended small craft advisories across the Alligator River, Albemarle, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds, and the coastal waters from Duck down to Oregon Inlet given latest trends in observations.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The cold front is moving offshore and is taking the remaining showers and thunderstorms with it.

2) Prolonged period of below normal temperatures expected behind the front well into next week.

Marine...Small Craft conditions are expected to continue into this evening. A prolonged period of poor marine conditions is expected to develop Tuesday night and last into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The cold front is moving offshore and is taking the remaining showers and thunderstorms with it. A surge of northerly winds behind the front will continue to gust for the next couple of hours but will diminish as we approach sunrise. With this CAA, temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 40s inland and low 50s at the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler high pressure will build in today, resulting in much cooler highs to kick off the new week (mid to upper 60s inland/upper 50s to low 60s beaches). A quick, moisture-starved reinforcing cold front will then move across the area on Tuesday. Although no rain is expected with this FROPA, the post-frontal air mass will bring the coolest high temperatures of the week on Wednesday (low 60s). We'll moderate thereafter and be back to low 80s inland/upper 60s beaches by the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High clouds across rtes through the TAF period. NNW winds becoming light and variable as high pressure becomes centered over the area. The probability for impactful fog tonight is less than 10% with the dry airmass in place and a thick shield of high clouds expected, minimizing radiational cooling. Some shallow, non- impactful fog may show up in observations with the light to calm winds with recent rain, so have added 6SM MIFG for EWN, OAJ, PGV. Tuesday winds continue out of the north behind a reinforcing cold front moving through in the morning.

Outlook: Pred VFR expected Tuesday afternoon through Friday with high pressure over the area.

MARINE

Only change as of this update was to end the small craft advisories across the Alligator River, Albemarle, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet given latest observations and trends in recent guidance. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

Prev Disc...The cold front and its associated showers and thunderstorms are pushing offshore this morning. A surge of NNE winds is expected to develop within the next couple of hours, increasing winds to 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35+ kt (highest near the Gulf Stream) and building seas to 5-7 ft by later this morning. Conditions will improve throughout the day with all SCAs scheduled to drop by this evening. Good boating conditions will be short-lived as a dry cold front will reintroduce SCA conditions starting Tuesday night. NE winds at 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt will develop behind the front Tuesday night with waves building to 6-10 ft in response.

Outlook: Once SCA conditions develop again Tuesday night, seas will likely remain elevated into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156- 158.