textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will remain in control today as a front remains stalled offshore. A cold front will move through late tonight and early Monday with low pressure developing along it. High pressure will build back over the area mid week. Another low and cold front move in late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 2 AM Sun...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, cold front extending through the NE US and back through the Mid-West, with another front stalled offshore the SE coast. While there is still potential for patchy freezing fog for inland areas early this morning, low stratus is keeping temps in the upper 30s to low 40s...so not sure it will make it down to freezing. However, patchy dense fog to the west may continue to advect into the coastal plain in the next few hours, so will continue to monitor trends with the potential need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

High pressure remains in control today, keeping the area mostly dry. Skies likely to remain party to mostly cloudy today as mid and high clouds continue to stream in. Low lvl thickness values and clouds support highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/

As of 2 AM Sun...Approaching cold front will move through the area late tonight and early Monday, while strong shortwave approaches the Carolinas. Cloud cover will likely keep temps for most areas above freezing overnight, but could see patchy inland fog develop again before northerly winds increase towards sunrise. Expect most of the night to remain dry with low end precip chances increasing towards sunrise.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 2 AM Sun...Light snow possible across inland areas Monday afternoon and evening. Then dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker possible by week's end, turning much colder next weekend.

Monday...The start of next week brings another chc of precip with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing through, inducing offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps tumble through late afternoon, while moisture is coming to an end. However, most 00z guidance is trending towards a wetter and colder scenario. There will likely be some overlap where rain mixes with and changes over to some snow, especially across the NW portions of the area. Very light snow accumulations will be possible, likely less than 1"...and more than likely limited to grassy and elevated surfaces given the warm ground. Probabilities for light accums continue to tick upwards...will continue to monitor trends in high res guidance. Mon night lows will fall into the 20s inland and 30s along the beaches and immediate coast.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions expected as high pressure builds back in at the surface behind Monday's front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the coast. Highs in the 40s Tue warming back into the 50s Wed and Thu as winds become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed morning.

Friday through Saturday...Next chc for appreciable precip arrives by week's end, as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS in a cont active synoptic pattern. Due to uncertainty this far out in details and timing, pops kept at low chc (30%) or lower for now. At this time, ptype looks to remain all liquid. Much colder air expected behind the front for next weekend with highs back into the 30s and 40s and lows well below freezing.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 0700 Sunday...

Key Messages

- IFR or lower early - Inland FZFG for few hours - Improving to VFR this afternoon - More subVFR possible tonight

Pocket of clearing has led to gradual MVFR fog developing slowly and then quickly dropping to IFR or lower as Ts crash. FZFG in place for a few terminals for the next 2-3hrs. OAJ is the last to see clearing and it temporarily under VFR flight cats, but expecting fog to fill in here as well. CIGs and VIS will gradually improve through the morning, with an improvement to VFR flight cats by the afternoon. Another rd of subVFR flight cats expected late overnight tonight with rain overspreading the area in the early morning hours MON.

Outlook: By Monday, pattern becomes wet again return to sub-VFR flight cats likely as the developing low pressure makes it closest point of approach. A transition to a rain-snow mix, and perhaps straight snow, works NW to SE across ENC MON afternoon into the evening.VFR conditions are then once again expected midweek across ENC.

MARINE

As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages

- Strong winds and dangerous seas expected Monday and Monday night.

Latest obs show N-NW winds 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt across the warmer waters near the Gulf Stream, with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure remains in control today with front stalled well offshore. Winds become N-NE 5-10 kt today with seas 2-4 ft. Light winds this evening grad increasing to 15-20 kt by early Mon morning.

Mon...Backdoor front passes through and strong northerly winds develop 15-25 kt for the rivers, sounds and nearshore waters, and 20-30 kt gusting 30-40 kt for the water outer waters. Upgraded to Gale warnings for the southern and central waters, Gale watch for the northern waters and SCAs for the rivers and sounds. Seas will quickly increase to 6-10 ft Monday and continue into early Tue.

Tue through Thu...Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late Wed winds turn swrly and inc to 15-25 kt for the sounds and nearshore waters, and 20-30 kt with potential gale gusts for the warmer outer waters south of Hatteras. Gusty WNW early Thu grad easing through the day. Seas peak will at 4-8 ft late Wed, then subsiding to 2-4 ft by late Thu.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ029- 044>046-080-081. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ136-137. Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 11 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for AMZ152-154-156-158.