textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A warm front will continue to slowly lift north through ENC tonight followed by a cold front pushing through the area tomorrow. Cooler and drier high pressure rebuilds Sunday into early next week before another frontal system brings the next chance of rain late Tuesday through Wednesday. Cool and dry high pressure then builds back in behind this system through the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 650 PM Fri...Warm front will continue to grad lift northward through the area tonight, with eventually all of ENC getting into the warm sector, ahead of a cold front which will cross the area tomorrow. Mostly dry conditions are anticipated with partly clear skies, and a strengthening SW breeze towards sunrise. Temps will remain fairly steady overnight, only dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s. Similar to last night, calm winds and clearing skies in the evening could allow for areas of fog to develop, with potential for areas of dense fog, with vsbys grad improving from south to north after midnight as stronger SW flow develops.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/

As of 3 PM Fri...Low pressure will track over the southern Mid- Atlantic tomorrow and drop a cold front southward which will cross through ENC in the afternoon from north to south. Ahead of this front it will be well above normal with temps soaring into the mid to upper 70s for most locations. A few rounds of scattered showers are possible in the morning with precip chances 20-40%, and then as the front moves into the forecast area additional showers and thunderstorms (30-50% chance) should develop into a broken line of convection and move southward through the forecast area in the afternoon. Latest trends indicate sufficient instability will be present, and there could even be a risk for a stronger to severe storm with plenty of deep layer shear present.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 3 PM Fri...Mainly mild conditions expected with above climo temps through mid next week. Rain chances possible by mid next week.

Sun through Mon...High pressure is then forecast to build in behind the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing. Zonal flow will be in place, so temps should be around avg during this period, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows in the 40s. Sun night will be the coolest night, with lows in the 30s interior to 40s coast.

Tue through Wed...Next chance for rain arrives by Tue, and esp Tue night into early Wed, as shortwave and frontal boundary sweep through. This system has the potential to tap into some GOM moisture, as layer streamlines are out of the sw through the SE CONUS, but timing and mesoscale features are yet to be ironed out, so no higher than 30-50% pops this far out in time. Temps rebound to warmer than climo, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to 50s.

Thanksgiving Day and Friday...Should be on the dry side, as guidance and respective ensembles have trended drier with a clean frontal passage by Wed night. Have advertised no higher than 20% with near climo highs in the low/mid 60s.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 650 PM Fri...

Key Messages

- Fog/low stratus likely to bring sub-VFR conditions to much of ENC again tonight, especially early

- A frontal system will bring additional chances for showers and sub-VFR conditions Saturday

Widespread sub-VFR conditions across the area early this evening with low clouds and areas of fog. With high moisture content in the low- levels, guidance has trended towards fog development across much of ENC overnight, with some guidance depicting a 20-40% chance of visibilities dropping below 1 mile in some locations. Areas of locally dense fog will be possible, especially through 08z. Winds will then begin to increase after 6-9 UTC tonight ahead of an approaching frontal system. This is expected to begin to mix out fog, but patchy fog may linger where winds are slower to increase or in more sheltered locations.

The chance for showers then begins to increase across ENC from west to east around and after dawn on Saturday. Showers will have the potential to bring periods of sub-VFR conditions again, but with some uncertainty remaining regarding timing and coverage of rain/showers, have opted against including any prevailing groups as of this cycle.

Outlook: Chances for showers/rain and sub-VFR conditions will linger into Saturday night as the frontal system works its way through the area. VFR conditions then likely beyond Sunday as cooler high pressure builds in.

MARINE

As of 650 PM Fri...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions to develop for portions of the coastal waters early Saturday morning into Saturday night.

- Another period of Small Craft conditions is possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

A warm front remains stalled along the southern NC coast early this evening with very light winds to the north, and SW winds at 10-20 kts to the south. The front will finally lift northward through the area early tonight, with winds becoming WSW/SW at 10-20 kts everywhere. Winds will continue to strengthen early tomorrow morning ahead of the next cold front, and will become SW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts through tomorrow afternoon. The front will cross through the marine waters from north to south later in the afternoon and winds switch to N 15-25 kts behind it through Sunday morning.

Seas will be 2-4 ft through tomorrow morning, and then increase to 3-5 ft through Sunday with some periods of 6 foot seas possible over portions of the waters off Cape Hatteras.

Outlook: Improving conditions expected Sunday with winds becoming N 10-20 kts. Light northerly flow continues Monday with winds coming back around to the south Tuesday at 10-20 kts, and strengthening to SW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts Tuesday night through Wednesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154-156-158.