textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Reintroduced rain/snow mentions inland along the cold front Thursday morning, although wintry precip impacts are still not expected. Small craft advisories issued Tuesday night to Thursday for coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold temperatures this morning with a gradual warming trend today into Wednesday

2) A low pressure system and cold front Wednesday through Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with a slight chance of non-accumulating snow

3) Generally dry cold front moves through early Sunday, with another surge of cold, dry air behind it

MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with gale force winds possible Thursday night. SCA conditions possible again for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the region has allowed for good radiational cooling conditions this morning with light/calm winds and clear skies. Lows expected in the mid to upper 20s inland to 30s along the coast around sunrise. Some inland locations have even dropped into the lower 20s. NBM temps are too warm in this scenario and followed closely to MOS guidance with manual adjustments for the peak radiational cooling locales.

High pressure slides offshore today with southwest winds bringing a warming trend with temps climbing to near 60 today and tomorrow afternoon, which is a few degrees above climatology.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A robust northern stream trough digs into the eastern CONUS today through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave moving across the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast coast Wednesday which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday evening. There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact track of the low offshore which will ultimately determine precip coverage and amounts across the region. The best precip chances will be along OBX and areas offshore where we continue likely PoPs, which tapers to slight chance well inland. Guidance is not that impressive with precip amounts which shows around a quarter of an inch along the coast to little accumulation inland. All liquid precip expected through Wednesday night.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early Thursday morning. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics but sufficient moisture remains that we could see a rain/snow mix inland with frontal forcing becoming all rain closer to the coast along the front, but rain amounts expected to be limited, only up to a tenth of an inch at best. Any snow mixed in is not expected to accumulate, and no wintry precip impacts are expected. Strong CAA develops behind the front later Thursday morning but it appears this will be a typical cold air chasing the moisture, likely keeping us dry Thursday afternoon. For this reason, stepped down from NBM chance snow to slight chance, with room to step down even further.

The upper level trough axis pushes across the region Thursday evening bringing descent forcing but by this time moisture will be limited. However, coastal locations could see a brief period of rain/snow. Guidance has been trending drier and NBM probs are less than 25% for any accumulation precipitation, for either rain or snow.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front is expected to move through the region early Sunday. There isn't much moisture to play with ahead of this front, so precip chance is on the lower side (PoPs 15-20%). NBM called for snow chances, but with sfc temps in the 40-45F range at that time, paired with the drier trend, elected to stick with all rain for the forecast. Behind the front, below average temps and dry conditions return.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

No changes in forecast thinking as VFR conditions are forecast through the entire period as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Light and variable to calm winds this morning become SW'rly at about 5-10 kts with gusts up around 10-15 kts by midday. These winds will persist into Tue evening before winds become light and variable once again Tue night. Skies remain partly cloudy through the period. While currently not in the TAFs on this update, monitoring the forecast for potential LLWS impacts in ENC late tonight into Wed morning. While it is a low threat, some guidance is showing some LLWS impacting portions of ENC late tonight as a mid level shortwave moves through the area. If confidence increases in its occurrence, a line for this may be included in the TAFs in the coming updates.

Outlook: Pred VFR flight cats expected through much of the period with high pressure in control. While there is still uncertainty, a low pressure system Wednesday and Thursday could bring precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.

MARINE

High pressure has settled across the waters bringing W/SW winds around 5-15 kt becoming SW later as high moves offshore. Seas have also laid off, around 2ft across all coastal waters. Tonight, winds begin to pick up as a low crosses the great lakes and high pressure sits offshore, tightening the pressure gradient. This will bring gusts around 25kts for the warmer gulf stream waters tonight. Issued a SCA for gulf stream waters given 6Z guidance increased confidence in SCA gusts. For now have SCA going until Friday 00Z, at which point gale force gust chances increase.

Winds briefly lessen to 15-20 knots Wednesday morning for 3-6 hours before picking back up to 20-30 knots as a low forms offshore and strengthens. Again, best chance of seeing small craft gusts with this low is along warmer gulf stream waters with SW flow. Cooler inland sounds/rivers will see much lighter wind gusts with the SW winds thanks to a marine inversion.

A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and could see NW winds bring strong SCA to Gale Force conditions across the waters. Conditions improve late in the week with high pressure briefly building into the area. This weekend, another cold front moves through, bringing elevated winds and seas once again.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154-156.