textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Model guidance continues to trend colder and wetter for this coming weekend, increasing the potential for snow and/or ice impacts.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 130 AM Mon...

1) Areas of black ice this morning.

2) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid week with lows and wind chills in the 15 to 20 range each morning through Wednesday. Wednesday morning will be the coldest day with lows in the teens for all areas away from the beaches with high pressure overhead.

3) Though there is still alot of uncertainty, the threat for winter weather impacts is increasing for this weekend. Snow and/or ice accumulations will be possible.

DISCUSSION

As of 130 AM Mon...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Any moisture or puddles remaining on roads will freeze this morning, leading to patchy black ice through mid morning for most of the area. Lows of 25 to 30 deg expected. SPS continues through mid morning highlighting the threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the reinforcing front, leading to well below normal temps through Wednesday. Low temps will reach the low to mid 20s tonight, and when factoring in wind chills it will feel like 15 to 20 each morning. We will be close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning (wind chills), and Wednesday morning (air temps). Wed morning is the coldest with high pressure directly overhead with lows in the teens for all areas away from the immediate coast.

Key MESSAGE 3...

Deep troughing over the Eastern US is expected through the rest of the week into the weekend, keeping below normal temps in place. A southern stream system brings the next chance for precipitation to ENC. Still alot of uncertainty this weekend, in the synoptic and mesoscale details. However, most 00z model guidance continues to trend colder and wetter. There is potential for this system to bring snow and/or ice impacts to the area. Will continue to keep p-types rain and/or snow in the forecast, though still potential for freezing rain and/or sleet, depending on the warm nose aloft. Stay tuned to the forecast over the next several days with the increasing threat for wintry wx.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions have returned for most of ENC early this morning. Across extreme southern NC low level moisture pooling behind this system has produced some areas of fog, which has drifted eastward to portions of Duplin and Onslow counties. MVFR 3-5 mile visibilities will persist in these areas for the next hour or so, with KOAJ right on the edge of this.

Mostly sunny skies on tap today with light winds less than 10 kts, keeping conditions VFR present through tonight.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions are expected across ENC through mid week as high pressure builds in.

MARINE

As of 410 AM Mon...Latest obs show NW winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-5 ft. Conditions will temporarily improve this morning with winds W 5-15 kt, and seas 2-4 ft, but winds will again increase late this afternoon and tonight to WNW 15-20 kt behind a reinforcing cold front. Issued SCA for the waters from Duck to Ocracoke with potential for several hours of freq 25 kt gusts.

Tuesday through Friday: Lighter winds expected Tuesday through much of the rest of the week with speeds generally 5-15 kt with mainly high pressure in control. The next system will impact the area this weekend and could bring SCA conditions.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.