textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Inc pops again for rest of today with widely sct waa showers blossoming.

Relegated highest thunder chances for coastal plain counties Friday with potential severe.

Raised max temps on the OBX through Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through Thursday.

2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the fropa for this weekend.

Aviation: Another risk of LIFR tonight into early Thu morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and synoptic setups through Thu. Where guidance is fairly well clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and open wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the week. Before that happens, low level flow is currently veering southeast to south today as weak warm front/coastal trough lifts through, which is producing some widely sct showers. Any showers dissipate by evening, then a fog and low stratus threat later this evening to Thu morning as moistening boundary layer continues. Area is firmly entrenched in srly flow Thu, but with no forcing in place, pops are generally less than 20%, though can't rule out a quick light shower anywhere. Very warm through Thursday with highs around 80 interior to 70s beaches. Overnight lows will be especially above climo, with readings in the 60s the next few nights, and where we should be for afternoon highs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into evening with a wet cold front moving through. Anomalous moisture and higher- than- normal instability for early November is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have increased the thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices inland, and where highest instability and shear will reside. If best forcing lines up with peak heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas esp west of Hwy 17 Fri afternoon. Main threat would be damaging winds.

Front sweeps offshore late Fri evening with any remaining showers exiting the OBX before daybreak Sat.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with fropa late Fri, which will usher in a more seasonably dry airmass for the coming weekend. Return to mo sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of the normally colder spots.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions with widely sct showers for today. Then overall pattern looks very similar tonight, and the expectation is that another round of fog and very low stratus (LIFR) will develop tonight into early Thu. Dry conditions for Thu with the low clouds lifting to MVFR and then eventually VFR as strong mixing occurs with a slight uptick in srly breezes.

Outlook (Thursday night through Monday): On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with an increased risk of widespread SHRA with a few TSRA embedded. Some of the strongest TSRA may be accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very heavy rain and IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The northwest wind shift along the front is expected to occur Friday night. A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then support mainly VFR conditions.

MARINE

Light to moderate winds will continue through the period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters). Seas 2-4 ft will grad build through tonight with developing SE winds and increasing swell from low pressure well offshore. Seas will build to 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore. Sct light showers will be possible through Thursday.

Outlook (Fri through Mon): Srly winds will cont in the 5-15 kt range, though a better chance for some advected 6+ ft seas as weak low pres develops well offshore on Friday into the weekend. Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds turning nwrly behind the fropa but should cont remaining below 25 knots, though high seas around 6 ft or greater may cont.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.