textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Very little. Slight adjustments in snowfall amounts with some slight lowering of totals for areas across the Coastal Plain, but no changes to any of the products that are, or will shortly be, in effect.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Major Winter Storm ongoing with low continuing to deepen offshore dumping snow across the Carolinas into tomorrow.

a) Heavy Snow:

Several more inches of snow is expected across all of Eastern NC, with some swaths seeing up total snowfall accumulations greater than a foot where banding occurs. Snow rates of up to 1-2" per hour have been seen, and will remain possible. Strong winds will coincide with the heaviest snow rates, which will produce near whiteout conditions at times, and even blizzard conditions along the northern OBX.

b) Wind:

The rapidly deepening bomb cyclone will produce very strong winds across Eastern NC, especially the coast. Peak wind gusts will likely reach 40-50 mph inland, and 50-70 mph along OBX and Downeast Carteret Co. early tomorrow morning. These winds along the Outer Banks could result in scattered power outages and some weaker trees blown down.

c) Extreme Cold:

More extreme cold is expected during and after the winter storm, with wind chills likely falling below 0 tomorrow and Monday mornings, with little reprieve in the daytime Sunday.

d) Coastal Flooding:

Potential for moderate to locally significant coastal flooding for areas along the Outer Banks and adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound.

2) MARINE...Extremely dangerous marine conditions expected this weekend as a low pressure system deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Storm conditions are expected for most waters, along with wave heights 10-20 feet for coastal waters.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1a-1b... No substantial changes to the forecast thinking as a major winter storm continues to unfold tonight, and into tomorrow across the Carolinas as an area of low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Much of the area will see several more inches of snow, with some spots potentially seeing up to or more than a foot of snow. Mesoscale features could also result in significant differences in snowfall amounts between localized areas with strong frontogenetic banding features enhancing snow totals or mesoscale areas of dry slotting which may lead to localized areas of lower snow totals. Moderate to occ heavy snow bands continue to stream into the area this evening, heaviest now focused over eastern Carteret and over the coastal plain. Little change to previous snowfall accumulations. Significant impacts continue, with travel being extremely treacherous.

In addition to the potential major impacts of the heavy snow, very strong winds will develop as the low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. These strong winds will further reduce visibilities, leading to blowing and drifting snow, and could lead to blizzard conditions developing across the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret County. Hatteras Island and Ocracoke wouldn't see this until the ptype switches over from rain to snow around or shortly after midnight tonight.

Potential Life Threatening Situations: The combination of these hazards will make travel impossible and could lead to life threatening situations if motorists become stranded due to the extreme cold temperatures that will move in tomorrow morning. Additionally, scattered power outages are possible due to strong winds/heavy snow knocking down power lines and/or trees. Power restoration may be slow due to treacherous road conditions, and residents should prepare for the potential for longer term power outages with extremely cold temperatures outside.

Historically, this storm's setup is most like the December 24, 1989 and early March 1980 storms. Both of these historic events produced 12+" of snow for Eastern North Carolina with accumulations from the March 1980 storm nearing 24" in some areas. While there's potential for this weekend's snow accumulations to be comparable to these past events, keep in mind no two storms are alike and shifts in mesoscale features could certainly impact over snow totals and who sees what. No matter how much snow falls, it will not melt quickly due to the extremely cold air that will build in behind this system. Temperatures aren't expected to approach freezing until Monday, but some areas may not get above freezing until Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1c... Extremely cold air will stick around behind the winter storm with the potential to set additional new record low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows will be 10-20F, potentially single digit in areas with a substantial snow pack, tomorrow night/Monday morning with dangerously cold wind chills in the sub-zero to single digit range. High temperatures will be below freezing tomorrow and a little above freezing on Monday, but it's possible some inland areas to remain below freezing into Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1d... The combination of very strong winds, wave action, and high astronomical tides will lead to moderate to locally significant coastal flooding impacts, both soundside and oceanside. Impacts will likely begin on the oceanside mainly north of Cape Hatteras and transition to soundside, mainly south of Oregon Inlet as winds back from NE to NW into Sun. This will likely lead to travel impacts for vulnerable portions of NC-12, especially for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. All coastal flood products issued remain in effect; Warnings across Downeast Carteret northward through the rest of the OBX, with potential for 2-4 ft of inundation (above ground level). A coastal flood advisory is in effect across southern Craven and Pamlico Counties for a threat for 1-2 ft inundation above ground level as strong NE to N winds pile up water along the mouth of the Neuse. At this time, greatest oceanside impacts expected from Duck to Ocracoke...and soundside impacts from Rodanthe to Downeast Carteret. Minor water rises possible for areas adjacent to the southern Albemarle Sound. High Surf Advisories remain in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Absolutely horrendous conditions prevail into the evening with widespread SN to +SN continuing with vsby generally 1/2 - 3/4 mi cont with areas of blowing snow expected through Sun morning. Winds of 20-30 kt cont into the morning before winding down through the afternoon and becoming light Sun night. The low will pull away from the area Sunday with VFR conditions returning.

Outlook: Conditions remaining VFR Sunday night into mid next week, through it will remain very cold. Another weak weather system will push across the area Wednesday into early Thursday that may produce sub-VFR conditions in predominantly light rain with some potential for light snow as well.

MARINE

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will continue to produce extremely dangerous marine conditions today through the weekend. Latest obs show NNE winds 20-40 kt gusting 30-50 kt, with seas 10-15 ft. Conditions deteriorate further with Storm force winds gusts forecast across all waters by this evening outside of the Pamlico/Pungo Rivers where strong gale force winds remain. There is a brief 6 hour window early tomorrow morning where coastal waters off of Hatteras Island could see Hurricane Force wind gusts (> 64kts) outside of 15NM from the coast. The brief duration and lack of area coverage precluded any upgrade from Storm Force to Hurricane Force marine warnings. Seas continue to build further to 9-15 ft by sunset tonight, reaching 10-20 ft after midnight into Sunday morning. This will make boating conditions treacherous for all marine traffic through tomorrow.

Outlook: Conditions will slowly improve tomorrow night with winds forecast to drop below SCA criteria by Monday afternoon. 6+ ft seas may linger into Tuesday morning. Another system is set to impact the area late week, deteriorating marine conditions yet again.

CLIMATE

Record Low temps for 02/02 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 19 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 20 1977 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12 1971 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 13 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 16 1980 (NCA ASOS)

Record Low temps for 02/03 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 9 1917 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 12 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST today for NCZ029-044-045- 079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199. Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203. Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ045-080-081- 094-194-195. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ046- 047-196-203>205. Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ046-047. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ094-194. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ196. High Wind Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ196. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EST tonight for NCZ203>205. High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ203-205. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Storm Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ131-135-137- 230-231. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ136. Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150-152-154- 156. Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ158.