textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increasing clouds with rain starting overnight into Thursday with approaching cold front.

2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing a risk of brief rainfall.

Marine...Gales continue through this evening for the outer waters south of Oregon Inlet with SCA extending into Friday. Next period of SCA conditions possible next Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC remains sandwiched between high pressure over FL and strong low pressure over southern Ontario. Much milder overnight with clouds, increasing precip chances and SW breeze. Lows falling only into the upper 40s and low 50s.

Cold front associated with the Canadian low will approach from the west Thursday into Friday, with rain beginning as early as tonight with increasing lift associated with embedded shortwave. Main slug of precipitation is more likely Thur and Thur night as main trough axis and surface frontal boundary make their approach. Some limited thunder potential will be confined to near the Gulf Stream. Model spread on rainfall amounts is has not changed much, with odds of 24-hour amounts exceeding half an inch still sitting at around 50%. Notably, probabilities of rainfall exceeding an inch ticked up slightly from this time yesterday, now at 20-30%. Concern remains these odds are a bit inflated given antecedent drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the Friday front clears through a few dry days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in from the north. The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid-Atlantic. Still plenty of details to work out with this given it is beyond Day 5, although it does not look as wet as tomorrow's system.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Modest southwesterly flow will continue for the TAF period across much of ENC. Winds will be gusty at times within this flow, especially through this afternoon. Gusts of 20-30kt have been observed and will continue through the evening hours.

VFR conditions are anticipated into this evening. By late tonight, the risk of sub-VFR conditions will increase, especially towards sunrise Thursday morning. KISO and KPGV have MVFR ceilings starting around 12Z Thursday due to the front moving slowly south into the area. KEWN/KOAJ look to remain broken/overcast around 5kt through 18Z Thursday with the front being located farther north. Rain chances also increase as the day/afternoon progresses Thurs.

Outlook: A slow-moving frontal zone will bring an increased risk of sub-VFR conditions from Thursday afternoon through Saturday, including a risk of IFR conditions. There will also be a risk of RA and perhaps a few TSRA. The front is forecast to slowly move through ENC Thursday night into Friday, and will be accompanied by a NE to N wind shift.

MARINE

Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt over the cooler nearshore waters and 20-30 kt gusting 30-35 kt over the outer waters near the Gulf Stream, with seas 3-6 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 5-10 ft south. Gusty winds will continue today as gradient tightens between low pressure moving through the Great Lakes, the attendant cold front and high pressure to the south. Gale Warnings remain in effect through this evening for the waters from Oregon Inlet south, with Gales most likely beyond 10 nm. SCA also continues for the Pamlico Sound, and for the northern waters. SW winds will diminish a bit overnight then increase again Thu 15-25 kt. Another round of SCA conditions likely, esp across the outer warmer waters.

Outlook: Poor boating conditions likely to persist for offshore waters into Friday before the front crosses the region. The front moves through Thursday night and Friday, with winds becoming NE 10-20 kt late Fri into the weekend. Next period of SCA possible Mon and Tuesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-154-156- 158.