textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight for the counties surrounding the Freeze Warning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) First freeze of the season for much of ENC away from bodies of water Sunday morning, with frost potential elsewhere. Cold mornings continue through at least early in the work week.

2) Dry high pres continues through mid week with warm days but chilly nights and continued ongoing drought conditions.

Marine: Elevated winds and seas to continue impacting portions of the central and northern waters through late this evening.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold low-level thicknesses and strong high pressure over the region will support frost/freeze impacts across much of ENC late tonight into Sunday morning. Additional impacts are possible early next week as well, although a killing freeze tonight would end the frost/freeze program for the season where it occurs, and additional frost/freeze headlines may not be needed anymore. The Freeze Warning in effect for tonight still looks good. The only change was to add a Frost Advisory for the counties surrounding the warning where winds should decouple, especially away from bodies of water. It should be noted that for both headlines, the greatest risk of frost/freeze impacts will be away from bodies of water, with some immediate coastal/beach communities probably not seeing any frost/freeze impacts. The risk of frost impacts may be lessened Sunday night as a weak cold front moves through which will keep the boundary layer a bit more mixed. High pressure then reasserts itself Monday and Tuesday night, with frost potential returning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The aforementioned very dry airmass and low TD's each day over the coming week will exacerbate the worsening drought conditions in place across ENC, and fortunately winds are not expected to be strong with the high nearby. However, fire weather concerns may grow with the curing vegetation combined with low RH values each afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

Northwest flow, gusty at times, will persist into this afternoon, then winds are expected to quickly decrease after sunset, and remain light into Sunday morning. Scattered diurnally-driven cumulus clouds around 5,000ft are expected to develop through this afternoon, potentially reaching BKN at times. However, SHRA are not expected today. Clouds should quickly decrease in coverage tonight with the loss of daytime heating.

Outlook: A weak cold front will move through ENC Sunday evening and night with a weak northeast wind shift. There may be a brief bump up in winds as well, but at this time a significant increase in winds is not expected. Light north to northeast winds are expected to continue into much of next week as high pressure remains centered to the north of the area. Scattered low clouds may accompany Sunday's weak cold front, but the risk of sub-VFR CIGs is low (<10% chance).

MARINE

Elevated NW winds continue at this time across most waters. Eventually, high pressure building in should allow winds to lay down, first for the inland rivers/sounds, and then eventually for the coastal waters. Winds won't completely lay down for the coastal waters, though, and a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until late this evening for some of those waters. Seas have peaked at 5-8ft this afternoon, but should begin to gradually lay down tonight.

On Sunday, another cold front (weaker) is forecast to move through the waters during the evening and nighttime hours. This front is expected to lead to a brief bump up in winds as it moves through. A brief period of 25kt winds will be possible with this front, but at the moment it looks more marginal for marine headlines. Seas may briefly get a bump up with the front as well, rebuilding to 5-7ft.

Outlook: A general N to NE flow of 10-20kt is expected for much of the upcoming week as high pressure remains anchored to the north while a broad area of low pressure resides to the south well offshore of the Southeast U.S.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ029-044-045- 079-080-090>092-193>195-198-199. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ046-047-081- 094-196. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-152- 154.