textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for Saturday and Saturday evening for Martin, Washington, Tyrrell, Mainland Hyde, Mainland Dare and the Northern Outer Banks.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of the Northern Outer Banks, Hatteras Island, Ocracoke Island, and East Carteret Counties.

A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous cold expected Saturday and Sunday, and an Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for the coldest period, Saturday night to Sunday morning when wind chills could drop from around 5 degrees to below 0 across most of ENC.

MARINE...Storm and Gale Warnings remain in effect from late tonight through Sunday morning as very strong winds (with gusts up to 50 kts) develop behind an Arctic cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A northern stream shortwave and attendant intense Arctic front will cross the region overnight with very cold temperatures advecting into the area through the day Saturday and Saturday night. Sufficient forcing with the shortwave to bring light rain or even a mix with snow across the northern tier late this afternoon and evening, however the impacts from the precipitation is expected to be minimal as sfc temps will be initially be above freezing and strong post frontal winds aiding in drying the roads as temps fall below freezing late tonight. The winds and cold will be the primary impacts as we move through the remainder of the weekend. Strong winds will develop Saturday morning and continue through Saturday night, leading to extremely cold wind chill values, especially overnight.

Highs on Saturday will only reach the low to mid 30s with wind chill values remaining in the teens. The coldest values will be across the northern tier with wind chill values around 10-15 degrees and have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for this area Saturday into Saturday evening. Winds chills will drop to near to below 0 degrees Saturday night as air temps fall into the lower teens, and an Extreme Cold Watch continues for all of ENC for this threat. Very cold conditions continue Sunday and Sunday night and a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for portions of the FA during this period. Record lows are possible at a few locations Sunday and Monday mornings, see CLIMATE section below for current record values.

The strong northwest winds (320-330 degree) will bring elevated waters levels on the soundside Hatteras and Ocracoke Island, generally on the order of 1-2 ft with only minor impacts expected.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected this evening, but light showers with a few flakes mixed in may cause CIGs to briefly drop to MVFR over the next 3-4 hours (most likely PGV and ISO). Winds are currently SWerly at 5-15 kt and will veer to the NW tonight as a strong Arctic front moves across the area. By early tomorrow morning, skies will clear and winds will become increasingly gusty, peaking tomorrow afternoon at 25-35 kt (35-40+ kt along the Outer Banks).

Outlook: Predominantly VFR through early next week as high pressure builds in.

MARINE

Winds and seas have diminished to below SCA criteria late this morning but conditions will quickly deteriorate overnight behind a strong Arctic cold front, with Storm conditions expected across most of the coastal waters, and with high end Gale conditions elsewhere.

Winds will begin to increase again this evening ahead of the Arctic front to WSW 15-25 kts, strongest over the southern coastal waters, and then will switch abruptly to the NW behind the front after midnight. Winds will initially increase to NW 25-35 kts with gusts 40-45 kts early Sunday morning. Winds then surge stronger by mid Sunday morning to NW 30-40 kts with gusts 45-50 kts through early Sunday night. Winds then begin subside slowly overnight into Monday morning. Seas will be 6-10 ft by Saturday morning, and then increase to 8-12 ft by Saturday evening, before slowly subsiding into Sunday morning.

Outlook: Winds will continue to improve Sunday and Monday, though lingering seas will keep Small Craft conditions over the coastal waters through at least Monday morning. Light NW and then W winds expected into Wednesday when winds increase ahead of the next front.

CLIMATE

Record low temps for 2/8 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15/1947 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 11/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 14/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 15/1977 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 10/1977 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 15/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1970 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15/1970 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12/1934 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 10/1970 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 16/1995 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18/1995 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EST Saturday for NCZ029. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NCZ029-044-079-090>092-094-193>196-198-199- 204-205. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for NCZ045>047-081-203. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NCZ045>047-080-081-203. Wind Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 5 AM EST Sunday for NCZ196- 203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Gale Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ136- 137. Storm Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ150. Storm Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ158.