textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind Advisory issued for the Outer Banks. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all area waters. Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for Hatteras Island.

Little change to snow accumulation tonight. Best chances still areas along and north of Highway 264, with the forecast totals under 0.5".

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rapidly deepening low pressure off the coast Sunday and Monday will bring a host of impacts to the area including strong winds, minor snowfall accumulations, and minor coastal flooding.

2) Next front approaches the region late Thursday into Friday

Marine...Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters tonight, with a low (near 10%) risk of some Storm-force gusts over the Gulf Stream

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)...Positively tilted shortwave tracking across the Midwest this morning will take on a more negative tilt and deepen as it phases with a faster moving mid- level disturbance currently racing across the lower MS River Valley. At the surface, stalled frontal boundary offshore will serve as the focal point for cyclogenesis, intensifying later today as trough takes on an increasing neutral and eventually negative tilt through the day. The 00z model suite continues to favor a strong low traversing quite close to the coast, eventually lifting northward and hammering the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Regional radar is showing the first round of rain lifting towards eastern NC this morning, and expect this to fill in as low deepens and more robust lift associated with the deepening shortwave nears our area. There may be just enough instability along the Crystal Coast and portions of the Outer Banks to support a low-end thunder risk as temps rise to near 60 with similar Tds. NBM forecast offered thunder too far north and trimmed this closer to the water. Total rainfall on Sunday into Sunday night will amount closer to a half inch, although any convection will boost storm totals. Precipitation gradually ends from west to east Sunday night into Monday with strong CAA ramping up behind the departing low as it rapidly deepens off the Mid- Atlantic coast allowing temps to fall into the 30s. All available guidance continues to favor a brief change-over to snow as cooler air gets wrapped in to the area, mainly focused along the north of Highway 264. Ensembles continue to favor a modest few tenths of an inch, very close to the previous forecast, so offered minimal change here. It should be noted a minority of guidance depicts a bit more robust lift across this region and suggesting a risk of totals exceeding an inch. Right now, this is a low probability threat (around a 10-20% chance, generously). Minimal impacts expected given the sfc temps. A shortwave rotating through the departing low may keep low clouds and light precip lingering through much of Monday morning and afternoon, although we will have dried up a decent amount at that point.

Stronger winds are still favored tonight into Monday, and the forecast now calls for gusts pushing 45-50 mph across portions of the Outer Banks. Wind Advisories have been hoisted from the northern Outer Banks southward to down east Carteret Co. In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued earlier this morning for sound-side flooding concerns due to the strong WNWerly winds expected. Localized ocean overwash will be possible for vulnerable Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands early Monday, and perhaps into Tuesday should swell become more organized, but the severity of this is lower than the sound- side concerns. Impacts from ocean-side hazards would come after the sound-side water level rises so, for now, have kept mention of ocean-side impacts to the HWO with no headline specifically for this as don't quite think we'll reach High Surf Advisory criteria at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2) The next rainmaker for our area arrives late next week as another cold front pushes across the eastern CONUS while weak low pressure lifts across the mid-Atlantic. Timing on when this boundary will come through has shifted back and forth as expected this far out, but the most likely time for rain is Thursday into Friday. With temps well into the 60s, this system will be all liquid with rainfall amounts of at least a quarter inch.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mostly IFR across the area with some spots inland hanging on to MVFR flight cats currently, but conditions are expected to continue to deteriorate through the morning to widespread IFR or lower, which will persist through much of the say today. CIGs lower from S to N as yesterday's front lifts back Nward ahead of developing low. Some potential exists for LIFR, but not enough confidence to make that the prevailing CIG, and have introduced some TEMPO LIFR where confidence was highest, but potential exists across all TAF sites. Kept LIFR mentions as a SCT group to show the timing of the greatest potential. Winds will be light to calm early but will strengthen through the day, and this TAF issuance shows a stronger wind forecast for the afternoon from previous iterations. NNWerly 5-10G15kt by late morning, NWerly 10-15G25-30KT in afternoon and evening, which will pose crosswind concerns for ISO RWY5/23. Heavier rain rates could bring reductions to VIS first half of SUN. Rain will be off and on by early afternoon and IFR CIGs will begin to lift as the low pulls away to the NE, with improvement to MVFR spreading from SW to NE through the afternoon and evening.

Outlook: As CAA builds in behind the departing low, precip will change to snow or a rain/snow mix Sunday night through early Monday. Light accumulations are possible for Nern-most terminals with minimal impacts expected from the snow other than VIS reductions while it's falling with any accumulations melting away quickly MON as temps warm above freezing almost immediately after sunrise MON. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through early next week.

MARINE

Strong winds and elevated seas expected tonight into Monday. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the rivers, sounds and coastal waters.

Latest obs show N-NE winds 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. Boating conditions will deteriorate through today as rapidly deepening low pressure moves along a stalled offshore frontal boundary and lifts across the waters this afternoon into evening. Strong Gales likely to develop in W-WNW flow behind the low, with Gale Warnings being retained. Peak gusts will be around 35-45 kt, although there remains a low (10% chance) of some Storm- force gusts primarily over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Seas will rise in response to around 7-10+ feet, especially beyond 10 nm offshore.

Outlook: Gales likely to continue through Monday midday but SCA conditions likely to extend well into Tuesday before westerly winds fall enough to let seas subside. Offshore waters likely to remain poor through late next week as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front forecast to cross late this week into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Monday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Monday for AMZ154-156-158.