textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered pops today, as well as shifting thunderstorm threat further south.

Lowered pops for Saturday.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably warm, moist, and unstable airmass will support some scattered thunderstorms today ahead of cold front.

2) Drier and cooler behind a cold front Fri into Saturday.

3) Another reinforcing cold front moves through Saturday night, bringing an even cooler and drier airmass into the region Sunday.

4) Next chance for showers arrives for the beginning of the work week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible today, esp this afternoon across srn portions of ENC. There will be multiple forcing mechanisms at play (front moving south and sea/river/sound breezes), and where these interact will present the best chance for deeper convection. The environment will be more impressive with 30+ kt of bulk shear, strong instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), and 2" PWATs. However, early morning showers and storms may act as a 'stabilizing' agent, along with debris clouds from said activity, thus limiting severety and covg of storms. The RRFS/HRRR has backed off on coverage of storms, and thus have decreased pops from likelies, to high chc and retained the highest chances for the southern areas, generally south of Hwy 70. If some storms manage to develop, they may utilize the aforementioned deep layer shear that will be available and could pose a localized convective wind threat, with some hail possible as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The cold front will clear the area this evening, leaving drier and cooler conditions in its wake on Friday as NE flow develops. The front will lift back north as a warm front on Saturday, though dry air in place will limit higher chances for showers, and thus have cont to trend lower with shower chances on Sat, with less than 10% chances for the north, and no higher than 30-40% srn zones.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Reinforcing cold front will move through on Saturday night, which will bring even drier and cooler temps for the beginning of the week, with temps actually dropping below climo for a change, with 75-80 for highs, and mid 50s inland to low 60s coast for lows.

KEY MESSAGE 4...By Monday, return flow develops as high pres shifts offshore and weak isentropic lift develops out ahead of yet another cold front set to pass through late Mon or early Tue. Ensemble spread remains high for the strength of this system, but lack of appreciable instability means that mainly light showers would accompany this system, and pops only in the 30% range at this time.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Retained VCSH for some precip that will slide through ENC through the morning with advancing cold front. Otherwise generally expect VFR conditions after some morning MVFR stratus burns off by mid morning. VFR conditions then return to all areas. Chances for storms has decreased today, and with lack of appreciable coverage, have not indicated a prob30 or VCTS yet for potential activity this afternoon. Will include a VCSH mention for OAJ later this afternoon as this area has the best chance of receiving precip with southward advancing front late in the day.

Outlook (Thursday night through Monday): Drier and cooler conditions are expected behind the front beginning tonight and lasting through the weekend. A small chance for light showers on Sat, but forecast trending drier. Next best chance for precip will be on Monday with yet another cold front set to pass through Mon night.

MARINE

20-25 kt cont for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, but the winds have diminished below 25 kt for Pamlico so have cancelled the SCA here. Seas will remain at 6 ft through about mid- morning for the coastal waters. SCAs will remain in place through that time.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): Cold front will push south of the waters by this evening, with winds becoming N to NE behind the fropa from north to south across ENC and remaining through late Fri. Winds will remain below SCA levels behind the front, with seas generally 2-4 ft. Winds turn back around to the S on Sat as the front moves back north as a warm front. Then another front moves through Sat afternoon and evening, with winds becoming N to NE again and strengthening to SCA levels for at least the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound, with seas responding by building to 6+ ft. SCA will likely be needed for later Sat through Sun.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152- 154-156-158.