textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Weak high pressure briefly builds in tonight. A strong cold front will cross the region Sunday, with strong and cold high pressure building back in Monday. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 2 PM Fri...

Key Messages...

- Flurries continue this afternoon across ENC, but with temps in the 40s, no impacts expected

- Clearing skies this evening will allow for good radiational cooling tonight with lows in the 20s inland

An overperforming clipper system has kept the area cloudy all day, and there continues to be reports of flurries or light snow across ENC. With surface temps in the 40s, no impacts are expected.

Skies will clear from south to north this evening, and with winds remaining light, good radiational cooling conditions will develop and temps should plummet quickly through the 30s inland to the mid to upper 20s by morning. Some wind will remain overnight along the coast, keeping lows mostly above freezing in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/

As of 2 PM Fri...Heights will rise tomorrow ahead of a strong cold front, as SW flow develops. This will bring much warmer conditions (briefly) with highs expected to reach the upper 50s to low 60s across most of the area under mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 2 PM Friday...

Key Messages...

- Strong cold front to move through Sunday with breezy conditions and a round of light rain which may mix with or change to snow briefly before ending

- Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the single digits Sunday night/Monday morning

Sunday and Monday night...A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend with a robust upper trough digging across the East Coast and an attendant cold front pushing across the area Sunday. Moisture is somewhat limited but favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area. There remains some timing difference with the front as well as precip coverage among the guidance but the trend over the past 24 hours has now gone in the opposite direction, now with decreasing PoPs and coverage across ENC. Any precip will begin as rain but the column cools quickly behind the front and could see a change over to a rain/snow mix or all snow, briefly, before ending late afternoon and evening.

Temps a bit tricky on Sunday and will be dictated by the timing of the cold front and there remains a large spread among guidance. Currently have highs Sunday in mid to upper 40s inland to mid to upper 50s coast but that may be optimistic if the front passes through earlier in the morning. Temps will fall through the afternoon as CAA ramps up behind the front with gusty NW winds. CAA continues Sunday night with temps expected to drop into the teens inland to 20s along the coast. Wind chills are expected to drop to the single digits to teens across the area after midnight into mid-morning Monday. Confidence is increasing that cold weather headlines will be needed for much of the area, including the coast.

Arctic high pressure will build into the area Monday bringing the coldest airmass of the season and highs are expected to remain in the 30s most areas despite mainly sunny skies. Monday will be another frigid night with temps falling into the upper teens to lower 20 away from the coast.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week. Precip chances increase Thursday and Thursday night with a cold front potentially approaching the area. Highs expected in the 40s Tuesday, 50s on Wednesday, and 60s on Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 145 PM Fri...

Key Messages

- VFR conditions expected through the TAF period

Mid clouds continue to stream across the area this afternoon, likely pushing off the coast this evening. Light sprinkles and/or snow flurries will be possible for the next few hours, with best chances north of Hwy 70. Strong radiational cooling setup overnight with clearing skies and light/calm winds. Guidance still not showing a strong signal for overnight fog development, though can't rule out shallow patchy fog.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions expected through Sat increased chances for sub-VFR conditions developing Sat night and Sun. Gusty NW winds expected Sunday, with pred VFR returning Monday.

MARINE

As of 2 PM Fri...

Key Messages

- Gale Watches issued for most of the coastal waters and sounds for Sunday night through Monday for winds NNW 30-35 kt with gusts 40-45 kts

Good boating conditions will persist in the short term through tomorrow with winds veering from the north this afternoon to east tonight and finally southwest tomorrow at 5-10 kts. SW winds increase tomorrow afternoon to 10-15 kts, and then to 15-25 kts overnight through Sunday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Winds will be strongest over the warm Gulf Stream waters where winds could briefly gust to 30 kts ahead of the front Sunday. Behind the front winds will switch the NW and strengthen to 25-35 kts Sunday night with gusts to 40-45 kts.

Seas will be 2-3 ft through tomorrow night, and then will increase to 4-6 ft by Sunday afternoon. Seas increase quickly behind the cold front to 6-10 ft by late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

Outlook: Winds and seas will decrease through the day Monday, falling below Small craft criteria by Monday evening. Winds become W Tuesday at 10-20 kts, and then back slightly to the SW Wednesday at 10-20 kts still. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through midweek.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ135. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for AMZ150-152-154. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ156-158.