textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light rain will end from north to south today, followed by a few days of cooler conditions.

2) Low pressure is forecast to impact the area this weekend bringing another round of rain and potentially a few thunderstorms.

3) Increasing signal for above normal temperatures next week.

MARINE...Increased risk of hazardous conditions for small craft through Thursday morning mainly along the coastal waters.

Monitoring the potential for marine impacts this weekend into early next week associated with low pressure moving through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will push offshore this evening, with rain ending from north to south. Just behind the cold front, much drier air is knocking on our door, with upstream dewpoints in the 20s. This drier airmass, plus modest CAA will support a return to colder conditions for a few days. With high pressure overhead, good radiational cooling conditions are expected by Friday night, setting the stage for the coldest night of the weekend. Lows Friday night were dropped below blended guidance given the setup. Some of the typically colder locations could fall into the low 20s by Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level low over western California is forecast to open up and translate east across the Southern U.S. this weekend, eventually moving off the Southeast U.S or Mid- Atlantic Coasts early next week. Guidance continue to struggle with the evolution of the wave as it reaches the Southeast, flip-flopping between a more organized/phased/deeper system vs a less organized/weaker system. Ensemble guidance seem to favor the weaker solution, but some of the recent deterministic and machine learning guidance have trended more towards a more organized/deeper system. Given the run-to-run inconsistencies, the messaging of this system will remain the same for now. As has been previously mentioned, wintry precip still appears unlikely with either solution. The main differences (weak vs strong) appear to impact winds (weaker vs stronger), temperatures (colder vs warmer), and the thunderstorm potential (low risk vs higher risk). Guidance should begin to get a better handle on the evolution of the system once it begins to kick east of the West Coast. Regardless, this system should offer the next opportunity for widespread rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Ensemble guidance continue to forecast a notable upper level trough developing east of the Rockies, with the low- level flow becoming southerly across the Carolinas. Synoptically, this pattern favors above normal temperatures for ENC. Adding support to this potential, the latest guidance from the Climate Prediction Center gives a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures across our area next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with only sct mid and high clouds. NW winds and dry air will inhibit the fog threat this morning.

Outlook: VFR expected to prevail until later in the weekend when a low pressure system moving across the southern CONUS combines with a weak low forming off of the coast to bring some more unsettled weather to the area.

MARINE

A cold front will continue to gradually push south through area waters this afternoon and evening. Behind the front, moderate northerly winds and elevated seas will develop, lasting into Thursday afternoon. During this time, winds are expected to peak at 20-25kt, with seas of 4-7ft.

High pressure builds in Thursday night, and is expected to remain overhead through Saturday. This will favor lower winds and seas.

Outlook: Model guidance continue to differ regarding the strength of a weather system that is forecast to impact the area Sunday into Monday. A weaker system would favor a lower risk area of 25kt winds, while a stronger system would favor a more widespread area of 25kt winds, and even the potential for gale- force winds. Given the run-to- run inconsistencies in the models, confidence is low to moderate regarding the magnitude of marine impacts with this system.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.