textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winds and temperatures have increased slightly for Thursday and Friday ahead of the next strong cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lower risk of showers and thunderstorms expected across eastern NC with next higher-end threat Thurs and Fri ahead of strong front.

2) Dangerous heat likely to return late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Overall pattern over the next few days will be slightly less conducive for shower and thunderstorm development with high pressure expected to build in behind a passing front today and remaining in control. There is a small threat window around midday into this afternoon, mainly focused south and east of Highway 70 as a cold front crosses the region and interacts with sufficient instability of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some precipitation loading and stronger winds are possible in more organized storms, but otherwise a severe threat is not anticipated. There is also a slight chance on Tuesday as a weak wave of low pressure migrates along the stalled frontal boundary, although guidance has trended slightly drier with this feature.

The next best chance for stronger storms remains Thursday into Friday ahead of a stronger front where deeper shear will likely be present along with strong instability as temperatures soar back into the 90s to near 100 and humidity remains oppressive. Like yesterday, better kinematics and thus higher risk of organized convection will likely be to our north in the mid- Atlantic, but medium-range AI NWP guidance still highlights much of the Carolinas in an elevated severe risk especially on Thursday, and potentially lingering into the day on Friday. The primary threat risk is damaging winds, but other hazards remain on the table.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Behind today's cold front, relatively cooler temperatures will prevail with highs dipping into the upper 80s to low 90s. As alluded earlier, increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the late-week front will boost low-level thicknesses and kick temperatures into the mid to upper 90s by Thursday. Paired with Tds in the low to mid 70s, widespread heat indices of 105-110 are likely. The passing front may cool things down briefly, but long range guidance suggests excessive heat will remain a concern into next week.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Primarily VFR conditions in place across area terminals, save for a low stratus bank stretching from SC into the inner coastal plain and causing some cig restrictions at ISO. Any IFR will likely lift to MVFR over the next couple of hours, and other sites will likely see some brief MVFR as well as cu field development gets an early start ahead of an approaching cold front currently working across RDU this hour.

Shower and thunderstorm threat remains low this morning as front progresses through the area, with most favored area for convective development south and east of EWN. Still kept PROB30s omitted from the TAFs although minority of guidance still suggests a shower or two could pop up before the main front crosses those terminals. The odds of this occurring are low - around 10% or less. OWinds gradually veer northwesterly behind the front, gusting up to 15 kt at times, then become light and variable into Tues AM. Lower levels look to be a bit less saturated overnight, pointing to a comparatively lower (but not nil) risk of fog/low stratus.

Outlook: Iso shower and thunderstorm risk will extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. More widespread convective threat returns Thursday and especially Friday with stronger front. Overnight fog and stratus threat possible each morning.

MARINE

Regional observations show ongoing SCA conditions across area waters this morning ahead of an approaching front with southwest winds of 15-20 kt and gusts up to 30 kt at times, focused primarily over the Pamlico Sound and offshore waters, where seas have jumped up to 6-7 feet.

Forecast calls for improvement in conditions through the day as front passes over area waters with a shift of winds to the northwest but at a weaker 10-15 kt. Soundside SCA will likely come to an end shortly after sunrise, while offshore conditions should fully improve by sunset.

Passing front today will likely initiate a few showers and thunderstorms, focused across the southern Pamlico Sound and the offshore waters along and south of Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook (Mon night through Sat): Periodic nocturnal and early morning risk of showers and thunderstorms is possible each weeknight, although most likely odds will be Thursday night into Friday ahead of stronger front approaching area waters. This front will also be the next focus of widespread SCA conditions with a low risk but increasing risk of Gales across the outer waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152- 154-156-158.