textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A warm front will attempt to move through by this evening with next chance for rain followed by a weak cold front. An arctic cold front moves through late Monday with a return to cold through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 220 PM Friday...

Key Messages...

- Cold air dam will keep temps locked in the upper 40s to low 50s today with drizzle

- Rain chances increase tonight

Cold air damming setup has not relented this afternoon with surface cold front extending well into the lowlands of SC and wedge of high pressure firmly entrenched over eastern NC and southeastern VA. The entire region remains marred in low clouds, and highs have failed to breach the upper 40s to low 50s areawide. Some very light returns are being picked up on radar, possibly as very light drizzle, but thus far no sites have reported precipitation today.

Primary focus tonight will be weak low expected to spin up along offshore portion of the stalled frontal boundary, already becoming apparent on satellite east of Myrtle Beach. This low will lift northward off the Outer Banks overnight, dragging a warm front north with it, as shortwave trough dives out of the Midwest, and resultant low- level convergence will provide the focal point for modest shower risk mainly east of Highway 17. QPF amounts shouldn't exceed more than a tenth of an inch or so.

Clouds will linger through the overnight period and diurnal curve into Saturday morning will be remarkably flat as lows hover in the mid 40s for the coastal plain and north of HWY 264, low to mid 50s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/

As of 225 PM Friday...

Key Messages...

- No impactful weather expected tomorrow.

Warm frontal passage overnight will quickly be replaced as boundary advances southward again as a cold front, this time with a surge of drier air in its wake. Mostly sunny skies expected inland, although increase of CAA-associated strato-cu offshore will likely make for more overcast and dreary conditions along the Outer Banks. Stark temperature gradient, typical of northeasterly flow regimes, anticipated with upper 60s to near 70 south and west of US 70, but only 50s for highs across NOBX and areas adjacent the Albemarle Sound.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 115 AM Friday...

Key Messages...

- Above normal conditions Saturday, Sunday and Monday with temperatures in the 60s and 70s!

- A pattern changing arctic cold front will move through the area late Monday with well below normal conditions returning through early to mid next week

Saturday is looking to be especially nice. With high pressure ridging over our area, H925 temps climb to +8C, which will help part of our area making a run toward 70 for highs! 925 temps cool about 1.5 degrees Sunday, and with increasing high clouds, temps won't be quite as warm or generally in the 60s.

The main trend with our arctic cold continues to be to slow it down. At one point a later Sunday FROPA is now later Monday. With strong warm air advection (WAA) Monday, highs will surge into the middle 70s or roughly average highs for late December for West Palm Beach, Fl! A thin line of showers may accompany the front Monday evening, but the bigger headline will be the abrupt return to winter. Below temps expected Tuesday and beyond, with highs in the 40s to near 50 and lows mainly in the 20s. Ouch!

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1230 PM Friday...

Key Messages

- Increased risk of sub VFR conditions late this afternoon into tonight

- LLWS impacts likely tonight into early Saturday morning

A frontal boundary is currently stalled to the south and west of ENC this afternoon, with widespread low CIGs ongoing on the cool side of the boundary. Within this area, a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are present over much of the Carolinas. Conditions are not expected to change much through the remainder of the afternoon. However, with continued low-level moisture advection, CIGs are expected to steadily lower through the day, with an increasing risk of MVFR conditions across ENC after 21z/4pm today. Weak lift in tandem with the increasing moisture appears supportive of periods of -DZ as CIGs lower. At this time, the -DZ is expected to be light enough to limit reductions to VIS. The peak in lift and moisture is expected to occur between 00z and 06z tonight, and this is when IFR CIGs may develop. Probabilistic guidance gives a 20-40% chance of IFR CIGs, but from a pattern recognition standpoint, this may be a bit optimistic. Adjusting the probabilities based on the pattern, it looks more like a 30-50% chance of IFR CIGs. This is right at the threshold for going with a prevailing period of IFR vs sticking with MVFR. With this TAF issuance, I added in a SCT009 layer to account for when the IFR potential looks to be the highest, but didn't yet introduce prevailing IFR conditions. One complicating factor in this pattern is a drying westerly flow that is expected to develop later this evening or tonight, which lowers confidence in sustained IFR conditions. Low CIGs are expected to mix out on Saturday as drier air continues to filter in from the west and north, lowering the risk of sub VFR conditions.

Lastly, a strengthening westerly low-level jet aloft looks supportive of several hours of LLWS impacts tonight into early Saturday morning.

Outlook: Periods of sub-VFR CIGs will be possible through the weekend. Early next week, a period of gusty southwest winds appears likely, with gusts as high as 20-25kt.

MARINE

As of 235 PM Friday...

Key Messages...

- Multiple rounds of SCA likely through the weekend

- Still eyeing a risk of Gales for at least offshore waters early next week

Seas remain elevated this afternoon for most offshore waters despite easing northeasterly winds behind a stalled cold front, with seas around 5-7 feet especially from Hatteras northward. Weather regime over the area will be a bit chaotic as weak wave of low pressure lifts off the Outer Banks tonight, dragging a warm front with it and quickly veering winds south and then westerly by midnight. This will not last long as frontal boundary pushes back south Sat afternoon, bringing a renewed surge of northerly winds at around 20 kt sustained with higher gusts.

Offshore zones and soundside waters will likely experience multiple lulls in winds and seas with the rapid changing of winds. Water south of Ocracoke Inlet will have the longest lull and have them SCA free through 06z. Zones north of here have had their SCA extended through Sunday evening. Pamlico, Croatan and Roanoke sounds will feel post-frontal northerly surge Sat afternoon and have posted a short-lived SCA for these waters through late Sat.

Outlook: Winds temporarily improve over the weekend, but seas may remain at or above 6 ft as long period swell moves into marine waters, especially central waters off Hatteras. Winds increase again Monday morning in advance of a strong cold front with widespread Small Craft conditions and possibly Gale conditions developing. Waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke may be under continuous headlines for the next several days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ135-231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ156-158.