textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal waters south of Cape Lookout have been upgraded to a Gale Warning

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches (highest along the coast) today and tonight.

2) Well above normal to near record high temperatures are expected mid to late next week.

AVIATION...Widespread IFR, or lower, conditions expected this afternoon into Monday morning, along with a risk of LLWS impacts.

MARINE...Strong Small Craft and Gale conditions will develop by this evening as a low pressure systems passes over ENC tonight. Gale Force winds will continue through Monday for portions of the coastal waters as the low deepens and pulls away from the coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A low pressure system will track east across the Gulf states today, northeast towards the Carolinas this evening, and off the Outer Banks by late tonight. Showers will begin this morning for western portions of the area and become more widespread by this afternoon. The heaviest rain will occur tonight as better forcing arrives with the low tracking over the area. 1-2 inches of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible, especially along the coast and the Outer Banks where a few thunderstorms may develop. Rain chances will quickly decrease Monday morning as the low moves out to sea. Additionally, gusty conditions will develop tonight and last through most of tomorrow. Areas near the coast could gust to 20-30 mph while the Outer Banks will flirt with Wind Advisory criteria Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...As the low departs on Monday, high pressure will move in behind it, and we will begin a warming trend that will last through Friday. Inland zones will see temperatures near normal on Monday (mid to upper 50s) but approach records on Thursday and Friday as we warm to the mid to upper 70s. Cold water temperatures will keep things much cooler along the coast with highs in the 60s for most of the week (50s along the Northern Outer Banks).

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through early afternoon, with widespread sub-VFR developing late afternoon and continuing into Monday as rain overspreads the area. Moisture advection within ongoing southerly low- level flow will lead to cigs gradually lowering overnight and through the day. During the afternoon hours, CIGs are expected to lower from MVFR to IFR from west to east. Light to moderate RA will accompany the lowering CIGs, which is expected to lead to reductions to VIS at times. LLWS impacts are expected to last through much of tonight, followed by a risk of impacts from gusty winds on Monday. A low- end TSRA risk will be present into tonight as well, but mainly along the coast from KMRH to KHSE (10-20% chance).

Outlook: Widespread sub-VFR conditions Monday morning, gradually improving through the day, likely returning to VFR by late afternoon. Monday night/Tuesday morning, high pressure overhead brings calm winds. If clouds clear in time, the calm winds, clearing skies, and recent rainfall will bring fog concerns to eastern NC early Tuesday morning.

MARINE

Good boating conditions will continue this afternoon. Tonight, a strong low pressure system moving across the area will cause Gale force winds to develop across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound with strong Small Craft Advisory winds elsewhere.

Southerly flow will ramp up ahead of the low with the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras reaching Gale force by this evening. This area can expect southerly to southwesterly winds at 25-35 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt (highest near Gulf Stream) through late tonight when the winds will then veer to the northwest as the low moves offshore after midnight. Northwesterly Gales will develop across the Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras early tomorrow morning behind the departing low with sustained winds at 25-30 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt. Strong Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop across all remaining marine zones late tonight with the northwesterly surge as the low pulls away from the coast. Seas will peak at 6-11 ft tonight/early Monday.

Outlook: Small craft seas (> 6ft) will persist for most of the coastal waters through at least Tuesday due to backswell from the low pressure system, which will deepen rapidly offshore. Thereafter, increasing SW winds, and perhaps some lingering backswell, will lead to Small Craft conditions continuing across most of the coastal waters into late next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from 5 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150-152. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ154-156. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ158.