textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Brought down temps a tad for early Friday morning, adjusted forecast for latest wind trends and increased wave height forcast through tonight given observations. Starting to step down marine headlines.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong cold front next week poses a potentially higher severe risk.

Marine...Strong wind gusts rapidly decrease through tonight

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Next weather maker will be Sunday and Monday as a powerful Colorado low rapidly deepens over the central Plains and lifts towards the Great Lakes, quickly pulling a strong cold front across the southeastern CONUS and Carolinas. Finer details are yet to be determined, but it is likely the mid-level trough driving this cyclone will take on a neutral to negative tilt by the time the front reaches the Carolinas and quite a bit of shear will be present (likely at least 40 kt). Experimental mid-range AI guidance almost all are giving a signal for a severe risk, quite higher than today's with multiple hazards on the table. SPC currently has our area in a 15% risk, but this will need to be closely monitored in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Some MVFR ceilings lingering east of hwy 17 expected to quickly move offshore through early tonight as high pressure moves in overhead. With the high moving in, winds quickly decrease, becoming light to calm for most tonight. The combination of light winds and clear skies will allow us to effectively cool, possibly bringing the near ground level to saturation. While impactful fog is highly unlikely, some patchy shallow ground fog isn't out of the question for inland parts of ENC. It is also worth noting that temps are going to be around freezing. The low probability of fog paired with the short duration of freezing temps make freezing fog highly unlikely, but it can't be ruled out altogether. Given the low probability, elected to not include it in the TAFs. After the sun rises, high moves offshore and we gradually shift from E to S to SE winds at 10-20 mph. Skies should remain generally clear through the period, with FEW/SCT mid and upper level clouds streaming through tomorrow.

Outlook...Pred VFR conditions expected through Saturday. The next frontal system is expected to impact ENC Sunday through Monday bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds in showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Winds will quickly improve behind the front tonight with gusts forecast to drop below 25 kt by late tonight. Seas have peaked this evening at 8-11 ft, and will quickly drop down to below 6 ft by mid-day Friday.

Gale Warnings remain in effect for all coastal waters, the Pamlico Sound, and the northern rivers and sounds. The northern rivers and sounds have generally fallen below 34 knots, but with winds quickly dropping to below small craft criteria just 1-3 hours after gale force gusts end, elected to keep the gale going instead of issuing a small craft advisory for only a couple hours. Small Craft Advisories have been dropped for the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers with frequent gusts falling below 25 knots.

Outlook: Winds and seas will lay down Friday, with brief small craft conditions possible Friday night into early Saturday morning. More benign conditions return for Saturday and early Sunday. Winds and seas will rebuild Sunday into Monday associated with the next strong cold front.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-150-230- 231. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154-156-158.