textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extended the Wind Advisory for the Outer Banks through Tuesday.

Minor adjustments to the end times to some of the Gale Warnings.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A slow moving nor'easter taking shape well off the coast brings a long duration wind and swell event with high impacts for parts of Outer Banks and adjacent waters well into the work week.

2) Cooler than avg conditions continue through the week.

Marine: Gale Warnings continue in effect. Prolonged period of strong winds and high seas as nor'easter lingers offshore through at least mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Vertically stacked low pressure will meander off the NC and Mid-Atlantic coast through mid week bringing prolonged strong north to northeasterly winds across ENC. The sfc low is approx 300 mi SE of Cape Hatteras early this morning and will only very slowly drift northward over the next few days as the system remains cut-off from the mean flow aloft. It is not until Wednesday night or Thursday that the low will begin to accelerate away from the East Coast as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

There remains considerable variability among the models with the placement of the low as it drifts northward over the next couple of days, especially beyond Tuesday as some guidance now has the low a bit farther northeast of the area allowing the winds to diminish some. However, sufficient solutions keeps the low close enough to the coast that Gale Force conditions may persist along the coast through mid week.

Tight pressure gradients between the offshore low and high pressure across the Eastern CONUS will bring strong north to northeast winds across the region with the strongest winds across the Outer Banks where gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory remain in effect from Duck to Ocracoke, which has been extended through Tuesday with the early morning forecast package.

The strong winds will also bring large surf along the coast as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where dune structure is fragile. So far, reports from NCDOT indicate the dunes remain intact but each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the dunes and the threat of impacts to Hwy 12 remain. Soundside flooding is also a concern along southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco, Ocracoke, areas of Downeast Carteret Co and locations along the Neuse and Bay Rivers. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Outer Banks and several counties along the sounds and rivers where northerly winds will bring elevated water levels. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for Cape Lookout and points north through the OBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler air mass that has advected in will remain with us through at least mid week with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.

As the low meanders offshore, some wrap around rain showers may occasionally sneak back onshore, with best chances on the OBX over the next couple of days.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Low pressure off the coast will continue to bring strong N to NE winds across rtes through the TAF period with gusts around 20-30 kt across inland terminals and 30-40 kt along coastal terminals, strongest with daytime mixing. LLWS may be a concern early this morning, mainly far southern rtes. Guidance is suggesting greater area of LLWS possible across inland areas late tonight as the LLJ strengthens some with the low passing off the coast.

STCU advecting onshore currently has cigs around 3.5-4K ft and guidance keep VFR cigs at inland terminals through the TAF period. However, expect some lowering of cigs along the coast as the low slowly drifts nwd off the coast today which could bring MVFR cigs to coastal locations, most likely along the OBX, possibly extending swd to MRH at times this afternoon.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): VFR and continued breezy conditions are expected to continue through week as the offshore low remains well east of the coast and high pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.

MARINE

Latest obs show northerly winds of 25-30kt sustained, with peak gusts of 30-40kt. Seas continue 10-14 ft closest to shore and 12-18ft likely offshore. These northerly winds will continue through the first half of Monday at these speeds, then inc slightly in the afternoon and Mon evening to 30-35 kt sustained, gusting up to around 45+ kt, though still expected to remain below storm force even in the outer waters as probabilities continue to trend lower.

Very dangerous marine conditions will continue as low pressure deepens well off the NC coast but cont to supply a steady fetch of strong n-nerly winds into ENC, with east northeasterly swells.

Outlook (Mon Night through Fri): Gales begin to taper off first in parts of the sounds and southern waters Monday night, then further east by mid week, though may have to be extended with oncoming fcst shifts for much of the coastal waters. There is large model spread beyond Tuesday on how long the low will meander and how much it strengthens, as a blocking pattern remains to the north and east through mid week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ046-094-194. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ195. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196. High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ203-205. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203>205. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-158-230. Gale Warning until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ137. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-154-156. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ180-182-184-186. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ188. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ231.