textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High Surf Advisory has been expanded to NOBX. All beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout are under a High Surf Advisory through tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Stiff winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore will build seas today and into late week bringing high surf criteria to the OBX. This high surf will pose wave run up and ocean overwash concerns for vulnerable portions of the OBX, mainly Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands.

2) Warming trend in the wake of yesterday's front. Below normal temps through FRI morning. Near normal temps FRI, but continuing to warm to well above normal temperatures this weekend and into next week.

3) Fire weather conditions will continue to be monitored closely due to no appreciable rainfall, a dry airmass, and drying of fuels as temps warm into next week.

Marine...Mix of gales and small craft advisory conditions over all area waters today. Though winds begin to relax today, sea driven SCAs to follow the gales for coastal waters, potentially lasting into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong NEerly winds over ENC owing to ridging building down from the N and a low pressure wave traveling along yesterday's front passing offshore. These strong winds have led to large waves which will last through tonight. As the winds relax through the day, wave period will increase, leading to wave runup concerns and ocean overwash at particularly vulnerable locations along the OBX coast from Oregon Inlet S through Cape Lookout at times of high tide. Existing high surf advisory has been expanded to cover the NOBX. Latest deterministic guidance has backed off on the depth and definition of the low traveling along the front as well as keeping it further offshore. This trend has cut down on the longevity of the coastal concerns due to the strong swell, but has not eliminated the risk for today and tonight. For the high surf advisory, there will be the potential for breaking waves around 8 ft along the affected beaches. As mentioned above, this could lead to some minor ocean overwash due to wave runup.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool high pressure builds down NECONUS before sinking S of the FA FRI. This will keep a NEerly flow regime in place through the remainder of the work-week, continuing to advect a relatively cool maritime airmass over ENC through then. Temps below average Today with MaxTs in the upper 50s NEern zones, low 60s in the SW. MinTs tonight in the upper 30s inland where skies are expected to remain clear and winds will be lighter, and around mid 40s Inner Banks where stratus advecting onshore and slightly stronger winds will dampen cooling. Some potential for frost development overnight and tomorrow morning inland, especially should winds decouple, which would make the current MinT forecast in a slightly mixed airmass too warm. Building low level thicknesses through the end of the work week allows warming temps despite the light NEerly flow regime, upper 60s THU, mid 70s FRI. Sun afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the Mid- Atlantic coast, veering local winds more Eerly SUN and then becoming Serly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs approaching 90 inland at the end of the forecast period (next WED).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Further offshore solutions of a weaker low traveling along yesterday's front and a lower likelihood of a coastal trough developing has continued to trend the late- week forecast drier. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying of fuels through the long term., This will lead to the potential for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are forecast.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR flight cats are expected through the period. NE winds at 5-10 kt will become 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt later this morning (15-20 kt, gust 25-30+ kt OBX). Skies will remain clear or mostly clear for the majority of the area until later this afternoon when few to scattered high clouds will develop. Tonight, NE winds will decrease to 5-10 kt (10-20 kt OBX) and broken to overcast CIGs will develop. Areas near the coast will see low-level clouds (3-5 kft) while areas farther inland will see mainly high clouds.

Outlook: Low VFR or MVFR CIGs are possible tonight into Thursday morning for terminals near the coast. After improvement during the day Thursday, a risk of sub-VFR conditions may once again develop Thursday night, this time due to BR/FG.

MARINE

High pressure building down the coast behind the front has led to strong NEerly winds. Current obs show 20-30G35-40kt over all coastal waters and Pamlico Sound with 15-25G30kt over the remaining inside waters. Seas have built to 7-13 ft at 8-9sec across the coastal waters with wind chop on the top. Highest seas over the Gulf Stream where wind wave and swell direction opposes the current. Mix of small craft and gale force conditions to our waters. These elevated winds and seas will continue into Wed morning before gradually easing as NE'rly winds lower to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-35 kts. Seas will continue to remain elevated at 7-11ft with periods increasing further closer to 9-10 sec. This will bring an end to the gales across the Pamlico Sound and central waters by this evening, though gales will likely persist across our Sern waters into tonight. SCAs across all other waters will also remain in place as well into Wed night.

Outlook: Winds easing by THU morning will allow all Gale Warnings to expire with SCA to follow behind. 6+ft seas will remain in place across our coastal waters through at least Saturday. Winds become generally 10-15kt, still out of the N-NE THU night. 10kt or less, briefly becoming SEerly across all waters FRI as high pressure sinks south of regional waters. Another ridge shifts across NECONUS over the weekend once again leading NEerly winds SAT night and SUN, continuing to veer to become S and then SWerly early next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. High Surf Advisory from noon today to 11 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ196-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ137. Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.