textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will remain in place across the Southeast U.S. ahead of a dry cold front Thursday, stalling across or to the south of the area, through late week. A weak area of low pressure traveling along the boundary passes just south of ENC this weekend, with high pressure building back in by early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 1345 Wednesday...

Key Message: Fire Weather concerns through this afternoon.

Eastern NC remains in a fairly benign pattern, sitting halfway between a low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes and Ontario to the north and the eastern edge of high pressure centered over Texas. The result is a fairly strong pressure gradient over the area bringing deep northwesterly flow to the area. The sensible weather upshot is below normal temperatures with some breezy conditions during the afternoon. This has led to some fire weather concerns resulting in an Increased Fire Danger statement for today. Winds this afternoon should increase to about 10 kts gusting to 15 occasionally 20 kts with min RH's around 30 percent. More details in the fire wx section below. Otherwise expect sunny skies with temps maxing out near 50 degrees.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the low 30s inland with upper 30s to low 40s along the Outer Banks. Winds will shift to southwesterly overnight helping lows to moderate with respect to last night.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/

As of 1345 Wednesday...

Not too much different of a pattern for Thursday. The main feature will be a shortwave moving through the flow that will try to work it's way southward. While this should not result in any precipitation, there should be some increase in cloud cover, especially in northern portions of the forecast area. Seasonal temperatures with highs in the 50s. Winds return to a more westerly or northwesterly direction by afternoon/evening at 5-10 kts gusting plus or minus 14 kts.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1345 Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Seasonable temps mid week through early next week

- Chance of rain appears to be decreasing for much of the area this weekend Thursday night and Friday...A series of weak shortwaves will push through the area for the latter half of the work week bringing periods of mid and high clouds. But, deeper moisture will be lacking and therefor expect dry conditions to prevail with zonal flow. A dry front will approach the area from the N THU, with some guidance keeping it N of the FA in VA while select models continuing to push through at least some of the area during the evening, and stalling anywhere from the Albemarle Sound to south of Wilmington, with brief high pressure building in N of the boundary. Current forecast reflects the front making it to, but not completely through the FA. Biggest impact to forecast on whether or not the front makes it through will be winds and MinT Thurs, as no rain is expected regardless of FROPA or not.

Saturday...Guidance has slightly slowed on what was previously forecast to be a quicker moving shortwave and an associated surface low. The system is forecast to traverse LA/AL/GA through the day Saturday, not reaching the SECONUS coast until about sunset. With THU's front potentially not making it all the way through the FA, the track of the low that will follow the boundary has shifted back N, cutting across the FA almost directly over the Crystal Coast and Hatt. The greatest chance looks to be along, and just inland of, the Crystal Coast.

Sunday through Tuesday...Low exits the area with high pressure rebuilding into the region bringing a return to dry weather and mo clear skies. SFC high almost directly overnight MON night, pushing offshore TUE. Temps will remain near climo with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1235 PM Wednesday...Continued VFR conditions are forecast through the period across all of ENC. A weak moisture starved system will bring little in the way of impacts to the area tonight outside of some high clouds (generally about 15 kft) and maybe some LLWS concerns across our northern tier. Breezy west to southwesterly winds at the start of this afternoon will weaken some this evening falling below 10 kts by about 21/22Z and then remain at 10 kts or less through tonight across inland areas. While winds inland will remain around 10 kts or less, coastal sections will see stronger winds starting late tonight into Thursday morning with the passage of the aforementioned system with gusts of 20-30 kt possible at times. Expect winds to generally remain at 10 kts or less on Thursday as well across inland areas, though they will veer back to a west- northwesterly direction after daybreak. A strengthening LLJ to around 30-40 kt will bring marginal LLWS concerns across the northern counties tonight with the greatest concern at PGV and as a result have kept a period between 03-07Z of LLWS noted here at the terminal before concerns gradually end from west to east.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the end of the work week. A low pressure area is forecast to pass just south of the area Saturday and Saturday night bringing a chance rain and sub-VFR conditions across ENC.

MARINE

As of 1345 Wednesday...

Key Messages...

- Next round of SCAs issued for all coastal waters and PamSound after sunset tonight into THU morning.

- Low pressure exiting coast late SAT impacts the area with strengthening winds and rain.

- High pressure returns late SUN into early next week.

Winds become more westerly, but will remain in the 15-20kt range. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, west to west-southwest winds are expected to build to 15- 25kt as a stronger pressure gradient associated with developing SFC troughing pushes E across area waters. During this time, a more widespread area of 25kt wind gusts appears likely. Seas 3-5ft build back to 4-7 ft this evening into THU morning as winds build.

Thursday through Friday...Back door dry front approaches late Thur. Guidance now keeps the front further north and even if it does bring it through it is fleeting.

Weekend...Strengthening low pressure works Eward from SECONUS, pushing off the coast somewhere from GA to SC at or after sunset SAT night. With THU front stalling even further N, the track of the Low, which will work Eward along the boundary, has shifted back N with latest batch of guidance. Expecting elevated winds and seas and rain across the central and southern waters likely reaching SCA advisory criteria. High pressure builds back late SUN, pushing offshore TUE.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 1235 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages....

- Potential for increased fire danger conditions this afternoon

No real changes to the forecast thinking as conditions remain marginal for reaching IFD criteria but given dry antecedent conditions, low fuel moistures, poor overnight RH recovery, and min RH around 30-35% this afternoon, this could bring increased fire danger across ENC. Winds will remain below criteria, however, with westerly winds gusting to around 15-20 mph. IFD remains in place across all of ENC until 6PM per NCFS request with additional concerns for celebratory New Year's Eve ignition sources.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon EST Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150-156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154.