textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increasing clouds with rain starting up overnight into Thursday with approaching front. Rainfall amounts are trending downward.

2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing a risk of brief rainfall.

Marine...Gales expected later today for outer waters south of Oregon Inlet with SCA extending into Friday. Next period of SCA conditions possible next Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool but overcast start to the day in largely zonal flow this morning, with a quick-moving shortwave traversing the Carolinas this morning. Our area is currently in a region of increasing southwesterly flow, sandwiched between high pressure over the Florida Peninsula and strong low pressure over southern Ontario. With increasing WAA temps will take a noticeable jump today, rising into the low 60s inland and mid to upper 50s along the coast despite the persistent cloud cover.

Cold front associated with the Canadian low will approach from the west Thursday into Friday, with rain beginning as early as Thu overnight with increasing lift associated with embedded shortwave. Main slug of precipitation is more likely Thurs afternoon into the overnight hours as main trough axis and surface frontal boundary make their approach. Some limited thunder potential will be confined to near the Gulf Stream. Model spread on rainfall amounts is has not changed much, with odds of 24-hour amounts exceeding half an inch still sitting at around 50%. Notably, probabilities of rainfall exceeding an inch ticked up slightly from this time yesterday, now at 20-30%. Concern remains these odds are a bit inflated given antecedent drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the Friday front clears through a few dry days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in from the north. The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid-Atlantic. Still plenty of details to work out with this given it is beyond Day 5, although it does not look as wet as tomorrow's system.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Modest southwesterly flow will continue over the next 24 hr across all of ENC. Winds will be gusty at times within this flow, especially during the daylight hours on Wednesday. Gusts of 20-30kt are expected. Gusty winds may last longer than normal past sunset Wednesday evening. Moderate winds aloft appear supportive of LLWS impacts at times, both overnight tonight and potentially again Wednesday night. For now, I've only included LLWS for the overnight period. I also expanded the LLWS mention to now include all TAF sites.

VFR conditions are expected through much, if not all, of Wednesday evening. However, late in the evening, there is a weak signal for sub-VFR CIGs to develop (10-20% chance) as a warm front develops over the area in tandem with increasing low-level moisture. This warm front will be responsible for an area of RA developing, especially late Wednesday night, with sub VFR VIS possible (10-20% chance).

Outlook: A slow-moving frontal zone will bring an increased risk of sub-VFR conditions from Thursday through Saturday, including a risk of IFR conditions. There will also be a risk of RA and perhaps a few TSRA. The front is forecast to move through ENC Thursday night or Friday, and will be accompanied by a NE to N wind shift.

MARINE

Only minor changes made to marine headlines, mainly to extend expiration times given a modest uptick in forecast wind speeds over the Gulf waters.

Latest obs show W-SW winds 10-15 kt while seas have subsided to 3-5 ft north of Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south. High pressure will continue to build over the SE, gradually sliding offshore late today. Gusty winds will increase today as gradient tightens between low pressure moving through the Great Lakes, the attendant cold front and high pressure to the south. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the waters from Oregon Inlet south, with Gales most likely beyond 10 nm. SCA also remains for Pamlico Sound, and for the northern waters (although this is driven more by persistent seas rather than wind).

Outlook: Poor boating conditions likely to persist for offshore waters into Friday before the front crosses the region. The front moves through Thursday night and Friday, with winds becoming NE 10-20 kt late Fri into the weekend. Next period of SCA possible Mon and Tuesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-154-156-158.