textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gale Warning has been dropped and Replaces with SCA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Overcast skies with rain ongoing and extending into tonight.

2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing a risk of brief rainfall.

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected tonight through Friday.

Marine...SCA conditions expected today into tomorrow. Next period of SCA conditions possible Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC remains in steady southwesterly flow this afternoon with persistent high pressure offshore and cold front associated with Arctic Canadian low pressure extending into the Wern half of the state.

Cold front will approach from the west this evening, crossing the area tonight into Friday morning. Main slug of precipitation tonight as main trough axis and surface frontal boundary make their approach. Some limited thunder potential will be confined to near the Gulf Stream, but there is a low risk some convection could graze the Crystal Coast overnight into Friday morning. Heavier precipitation is favored closer the VA border, but odds of at least a quarter inch of rain sit between 80-90% and 50-60% for half an inch, best chances inland. Rain becomes lighter in the overnight, but at least SChc PoPs linger through the day FRI as shortwave trough aloft traverses the FA. Area of weak low pressure travels along the boundary once it gets to our south, pulling moisture away and ending the rain threat through the day SAT.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the Friday front clears through a few dry days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in from the north. The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid-Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to be a bit lower for this system compared to today's. Enough spread remains in model guidance on timing that chance PoPs were maintained this morning.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A warm front will continue to lift north through the area today, and is forecast to be just north of the area later this afternoon and early this evening, with the cold front moving through overnight. Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions across the terminals this afternoon with sct/numerous showers. Conditions will grad deteriorate from west to east, and high confidence of widespread sub-VFR developing. Periods of light to occasionally moderate rain and patchy fog will continue tonight into Fri, with IFR/LIFR likely. In the wake of the above-mentioned warm front, SW winds will continue to gust 20-30 kt this afternoon, diminishing this evening and becoming NE behind the front.

Outlook: Widespread sub-VFR will likely linger Friday night into Sat, with periods of rain and drizzle. VFR likely to return Sat night, though there will be a risk for patchy fog inland with clearing skies and light winds.

MARINE

Latest obs show strongest SW winds 15-20G25-30kt over PamSound where warmest SSTs can be found. Seas 1-4 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 4-7 ft south. Diamond Buoy has been reporting SSTs in the low 40s all day and winds there have been under- performing all day. Have slightly brought the winds down for the coastal waters, though they are still expected to strengthen this evening, but we won't likely see any obs showing Gales. With that said, some Gale force gusts remain possible over far outer waters where the Gstream might be, but this is outside of Diamond. SCAs in place across all coastal waters and PamSound through overnight tonight.

Outlook: Poor boating conditions likely to persist for offshore waters into Friday before the front crosses the region. The front completely moves through Sern waters Friday morning, with winds becoming NE 10-20 kt late Fri into the weekend. Next period of SCA likely Mon and Tuesday in increasing northeasterly flow.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for AMZ158.