textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Climate section added with potential for record temps next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures will prevail through the next week with the potential for record breaking temperatures next Tuesday through Friday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temps will be 5-10 degrees above normal Saturday ahead of a backdoor front that will push through mid to late afternoon. Highs expected in the low to mid 80s inland with 70s near the coast and upper 60s OBX. Temps will be around 5 degrees cooler Sunday with sfc high pressure to the north bringing easterly flow across the region, but still above normal away from the coast.

The high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday and persists through the week while upper ridging builds over the Southeast bringing a significant warm up and a prolonged period of near record breaking temperatures. Temperatures inland are forecast in the upper 80s Tuesday and peak in the lower 90s Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly into Friday. Current deterministic NBM high temperature forecast is in good agreement with low level thickness tools, however it is around the 25th percentile of the blend of models, so there is potential for even warmer temperatures than currently forecast. Some uncertainty with the forecast Friday as some guidance push a dry backdoor front through the area which would result in lower temperatures, but other guidance keeps southwest flow and very warm temperatures. Deterministic NBM temperatures are around the 10th percentile for Friday. Record highs next week are in the low to mid 90s inland and around 80 along the coast, so some records may certainly be challenged, especially inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through next week. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. The only exception may be the northern Outer Banks overnight, with potential for patchy sea fog and low stratus. Overnight, winds may briefly become calm before a southerly breeze develops. There may be a brief window where radiational fog could develop, but with no guidance support, the potential looks to be very isolated. A backdoor front will push through the terminals late Sat morning and early afternoon, with winds becoming northerly.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern taking shape Sunday into early next week.

MARINE

Latest obs show NE-SE winds 5-10 kt with seas 4-7 ft. Long period easterly swell will keep elevated seas through much of the weekend and continue the SCA through tonight across the southern waters and into midday Sunday across the central and northern waters. Earlier sea fog along the northern waters has dissipated, but may re-develop overnight, will continue to monitor. Westerly winds will be around 10-15 kt Saturday morning, then a backdoor front will push through the area Sunday with winds shifting to N to NE around 10-20 kt and could see a brief period of gusts to around 25 kt just behind the front. Winds become Ely around 15 kt or less Saturday night into Sunday, then veer to SE Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week, although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.