textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures tonight/tomorrow morning

Extended the Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke Inlet until 8 PM Thursday

Added a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet until 8 PM tonight due to lingering 6 ft seas

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures with Thursday morning lows below freezing for most areas

2) Dry with a warming trend late-week through Sunday

3) Next frontal passage not expected until late Sunday/early next week with post frontal rain chances inc to 30-40%.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The Arctic airmass will keep temperatures below normal through tomorrow. Today, highs will be in the mid 40s/low 50s with ample sunshine. Lows tomorrow morning will again dip to the lower end of guidance as dry high pressure will be centered overhead. Given that we've had very warm temps over the past several weeks, precautions should be taken to protect any vulnerable plants through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...We'll gradually warm from late-week through the weekend. Tomorrow, temperatures will moderate to around or only slightly below average, in the upper 50s to low 60s (low 50s OBX). By this weekend, inland temperatures will be back into the upper 70s/low 80s with the beaches reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. Chances for precipitation will remain <25% through the weekend. Although we'll remain dry, fire weather concerns should remain rather low due to benign winds forecast through the weekend with high pressure dominating.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Our next front isn't expected until later Sunday night or Monday, which will bring our next chance for showers and a resultant cooldown behind back door cold front. Pops remain in the 30-40% range early to mid next week behind the fropa.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with light N/NE winds. Sct to bkn mid and high clouds continue to push across the area this afternoon, which may continue periodically into Thu.

Outlook...Pred VFR flight cats will continue through the period with high pressure in control through the next several days.

MARINE

NE winds at 15-20 kt will continue through tomorrow afternoon when the winds will start veering to the east and decrease to 5-10 kt. The coastal waters from Duck to Ocracoke Inlet continue to observe 6 ft seas. 6 ft seas north of Oregon Inlet should subside by this evening but may linger through tomorrow across the central waters. Therefore, a short-fuse SCA has been issued for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet (until 8 PM tonight) and the SCA for the central waters has been extended until 8 PM tomorrow.

Outlook (Friday through Weekend): Good boating conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure dominates. Winds will generally be 10-20 kt with 2-5 ft seas. The next best chance for SCAs will be Sunday night into early next week with the passage of a backdoor cold front with N winds increasing to 20-30 kt and seas building to 6+ ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.