textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure dominates the region early this week before another frontal system brings the next chance of rain late Tuesday through Wednesday. Cool and dry high pressure then builds in behind this system Thanksgiving through the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/

As of 1 PM Sunday...High pressure ridging into the area this afternoon but will see the tail end of a cold front, associated with shortwave trough pushing off Mid-Atlantic and New England coast, push through overnight. Very little moisture with the front and will see a dry frontal passage and likely little in the way of clouds. Cooler temps with lows in the upper 30/lower 40s away from the coast, to around 50s along the beaches.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/

As of 1 PM Sunday...Cool high pressure will build back across the Mid-Atlantic Monday with ridging building aloft bringing sunny skies. Temps will be near normal with highs in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 50s/lower 60s along the coast, coolest across the northern OBX with northernly onshore flow.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 115 PM Sunday...High pressure will slide offshore on Monday night and Tuesday with southerly return flow developing. Temps will be near normal Monday night with light/calm winds allowing for good radiational cooling. Strengthening southerly flow will bring warming temps Tuesday into Wednesday with high climbing into the 70s and lows in the 50s to near 60.

Next chance for rain arrives Tuesday evening and continues into Wednesday as a shortwave trough and attendant cold front approaches the area. Latest trends are unfortunately a bit drier with this frontal passage, as bulk of energy lifts north and west of ENC. Instability continues to look meager and will continue slight chc thunder mention in the fcst. Best chance for any showers/iso storms will be Wed afternoon just ahead of the main frontal passage.

High pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the week bringing a much cooler and drier airmass. Thanksgiving Day will see a return high temps back to 50s, with readings around freezing away from the coast Thursday night. Highs in the upper 40s/low 50s Friday, with lows well into the 20s for the mainland Friday night, with 30s to near 40 OBX. High pressure slides off the coast late Saturday and Sunday bringing a warming trend with dry weather expected to continue.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1220 AM Monday...Shallow, patchy fog observed ahead of a cold front with obs bouncing between VFR, MVFR, and IFR given the transient and shallow nature. This is expected to continue for much of the night, with generally non-impactful conditions expected despite ASOS/AWOS giving sub-VFR obs. Looks like best chance for still shallow, but maybe a bit more impactful fog is along Onslow, Carteret, southern Craven, and Jones counties where there is more residence time of calm winds with slightly higher dewpoints ahead of the cold front. For this reason, have TEMPO drops to IFR extending until 13Z for KOAJ. Considering fog will be shallow, and plenty of dry air is parked above it, it will quickly scour out once the sun comes up, leading to a VFR day in store Monday with light easterly winds. Monday night is likely to be VFR with high and mid level clouds overhead. Along the coast, some low clouds may move in early Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching frontal system.

Outlook: Another frontal system will bring the next chances of sub-VFR conditions and rain for Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night. After cold front moves through late Wednesday, VFR conditions are expected to return as high pressure builds in.

MARINE

As of 130 PM Sunday...High pressure ridging into the area this afternoon with N to NE winds mainly around 15 kt or less and seas around 3-4 ft. Winds back to W to NW around 5-10 kt late afternoon and evening, then a reinforcing cold front will push through late tonight with winds ramping back up to 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. May see some ocnl gusts to 25 kt, especially over the warmer Gulf waters, but not frequent or widespread enough to warrant any SCA headlines.

Reinforcing high pressure builds back in Monday with winds and seas diminishing. High pressure slides offshore Monday night and Tuesday bringing veering winds becoming southerly around 10-15 kt by Tuesday afternoon and seas around 2-3 ft. Could see SCA conditions developing as early as Tuesday night across portions of the waters, mainly across the offshore waters near the Gulf Stream, ahead of a cold front. The winds will peak on Wednesday just ahead of the front moving through. The front is progged to push across the waters Wednesday night with NW post frontal flow in the 10-20 kt range, possibly gusting to 25 kt or higher for a time and inducing SCA headlines through the rest of the work week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.