textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precip chances decreased further for Monday. Reduced thunder chances inland Wednesday onwards.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of unsettled weather returns early through mid next week.

2) Increased marine impacts mid through late week as high waves and potentially strong winds impact the OBX and adjacent waters and sounds.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Tonight into tomorrow morning, calm winds will bring a fog threat away from the coast, which could be locally dense just before/around sunrise. Next appreciable chance of rain arrives Mon and Tue as yet another frontal boundary pushes southward. For Mon, the rain chances are confined to mainly NW zones as the front has trended slower and later in the day. Tue appears the best chance for widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms as PW's surge to aoa 2" and frontal boundary is draped acrs ENC, and thus pops raised to 60-70%.

Key Message 2...By mid week, strong high pressure system becomes anchored acrs New England and ern Canada, while at the same time broad low pres develops off the Mid Atlantic coast, tightening the pressure gradient along the mid- atlantic and northeast. This setup will usher in stronger NE winds into coastal ENC. Exact timing, placement, and strength of the low will dictate wind speeds and impacts to coastal ENC. Ensemble probs still show potential for 20-30mph sustained winds, gusting to 40-50mph along OBX. This however is highly variable as it depends on the low. What is certain is that a long fetch of tightened nerly gradient winds offshore will bring high wave energy towards vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks. It is too soon to determine specifics at this point and trends will have to be monitored in the coming days. There is high confidence in over 9 foot waves at over 9 second periods impacting the Outer Banks late this week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions in place over all terminals this evening with only decaying upper-level clouds left overhead. Environment tonight remains favorable for fog with primarily clear skies and calm winds for most inland areas, and model soundings depicting a shallow but fully saturated surface layer. Probabilistic guidance adds confidence to this scenario, with the LAMP showing the likelihood of IFR or worse at 50-70% for all terminals. Some fog could be locally dense at less than a mile, especially after 10-11z. Poor mixing Mon morning may delay lifting of stratus until after 14z in a worst case scenario.

Benign flying conditions expected for most of tomorrow with east to east southeasterly winds of 5-10 kt. Cold front drops into the area late Monday, but rain chances will likely hold off until after 00z Tues.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): This and the potential cold air damming pattern develops mid-week with a risk of prolonged sub- VFR conditions and breezy nnerly winds esp Wed into the end of the week.

MARINE

As Easterly winds at 5-10 knots this afternoon becomes serly late today as high pres moves offshore, then swrly later tonight ahead of next frontal boundary, but remain only in the 5-10 kt range. Seas are a bit elevated at 3-5 ft, becoming 2-4 ft Monday afternoon.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): Winds remain in the 5-15 kt range Mon into Tue with seas 2-4 ft. NE Winds and seas begin to build Tuesday PM and esp Wed as pressure gradient tightens as we are sandwiched between a strong high to our north and a non- tropical low developing well offshore. There is the potential for nerly gales by Wed though still lots of uncertainty on how close and strong the offshore low pres becomes. What is more certain is a long duration of dangerous seas of 8-10+ ft developing mid week and lasting through much of the rest of the week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...None.