textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure moves offshore today ahead of a fast moving front that will push across the area tonight. High pressure builds in again Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night ahead of another low pressure system potentially impacting the area this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 2 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages...

- Warmer with gusty winds ahead of a dry cold front

A robust northern stream shortwave approaches the East Coast today while a surface low pushes across the Great Lakes with the attendant cold front crossing the Appalachians late this afternoon. Will see increasing mid and high clouds but moisture is quite limited with this system and not expecting any precip. Tightening pressure gradients ahead of the front will bring SW winds with gusts to around 25-35 mph. SW winds will also bring a warm up with high expected in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/

As of 2 AM Wednesday...The aforementioned dry cold front will push through overnight with clearing skies and CAA ramping up behind the front. Temps will fall to the mid 30s inland and upper 30s to around 40 along the coast by daybreak.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 2 AM Wednesday...

Key messages...

- High pressure brings cool temperatures and dry conditions late this week.

- A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on Sunday

Thursday through Friday...High pressure builds in from the west Thursday bringing mainly sunny skies and breezy NW winds with CAA persisting through the day. Temps will be well below normal with highs in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure becomes centered over the area Thursday night with mainly clear skies and light/calm winds allowing for good radiational cooling allowing for lows in the mid to upper 20s across the coastal plain to mid 30s along the Outer Banks. A passing shortwave will bring increasing high clouds on Friday while flow returning to the southwest will warm us a few degrees with highs ranging from the upper 40s across northwestern zones to mid 50s along the coast. Not quite as cold Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s for much of the area to low 40s coast.

Saturday through Tuesday...Another northern stream shortwave will move across the upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic through the weekend with the attendant cold front pushing across the area on Sunday. Moisture continues to be quite limited and most guidance keeps dry conditions with the FROPA. Saturday will likely be the warmest day of period in a pre-frontal airmass and expect highs in the mid to upper 50s. Still some differences in the timing of the front on Sunday leading to uncertainty with temps. Have highs in the low to mid 50s but a faster FROPA could keep portions of the area in the 40s. Arctic high pressure builds in from the north behind the front with much colder air building back into the area early next week. Lows Monday morning could drop into the teens well inland and 20s for much of the rest of the area and temps may struggle to reach 40 on Monday. High pressure becomes centered over the area Tuesday with gradual warmer temps.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 615 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- VFR expected through the TAF period with a window of LLWS concerns for PGV/ISO this evening

VFR conditions continue to persist across ENC as of Wednesday morning, with only some scattered high cloud cover across the region. High clouds will linger through much of today, with breezy southwesterly winds developing ahead of an approaching dry cold front. Expect to see wind gusts of 20-25 kts across TAF sites with gusts of 25-35 kts along the OBX today. Cold front will then push through the area later tonight, but with limited available moisture, only expect some mid-level clouds to accompany the frontal passage. Most notable change to the TAFs this cycle was to introduce a period of LLWS to PGV/ISO later tonight due to a strengthening low-level jet that will overspread the region along/ahead of the approaching front. Stronger shear looks to stay off to the north and west of OAJ/EWN, but may need to include a mention of LLWS for these terminals in future TAF cycles. After the frontal passage, winds will veer to northwesterly, remaining 5-10 kts (gusts to 15 kts) overnight, which will preclude any fog threat.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected through this weekend.

MARINE

As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Southwest winds increase today ahead of a cold front with Small Craft Advisories expected most waters and Gales near the Gulf Stream.

Today and Tonight...Currently seeing light and variable winds less than 10 kt across the water while seas have subsided to 3-6 ft. Winds will become SW and increase ahead of a cold front today with SCA conditions developing across most waters this afternoon and Gales for the waters near the Gulf Stream. Seas will build to 7-11 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 4-7 ft north. The front will push through the waters tonight with winds becoming NW late

Thursday and Friday...High pressure will build into the area Thursday with NW winds and seas slowly diminishing through the day and drop below SCA criteria by late in the day. High pressure over the area to start Friday but will slide south during the afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches the area. Winds will back to SW and increase during the afternoon with low end SCA possible Friday night, primarily near the Gulf Stream.

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure builds back across the waters Saturday bringing better boating conditions but that will be short-lived as another frontal system approaches the area Saturday night and pushes across the area Sunday. May see minimal SCA conditions ahead of the front Sunday but strong SCA to potential Gales will be possible late Sunday/Sunday night as CAA ramps up with Arctic high pressure building in to the area.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154-156-158.