textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A dry cold front will approach the area today, stalling across the area through late week. A weak area of low pressure will then traveling along this boundary, passing just south of ENC this weekend before pushing offshore. High pressure then builds back in by early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 1 AM Thursday...A shortwave trough currently swinging through to the north has led to an increase in high clouds across much of the region along with an uptick in the pressure gradient across the region. The 00Z MHX sounding showed a sharp nocturnal inversion in place at the surface. With the uptick in cloud cover and winds, at least some low-level mixing has led to rising temperatures over the past few hours across much of ENC, with temperatures climbing from the low-to-mid 30s to near/just above 40 F. With high cirrus and light winds, expect temperatures to remain relatively steady through the rest of the night.

Aforementioned shortwave swings offshore later today, with a weak cold front approaching from the north. This front is expected to stall across ENC today, but with limited moisture in place, only a slight increase in cloud cover is expected (mainly across the northern tier of the forecast area). Temperatures will be seasonal, with highs in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 1 AM Thursday...Front remains stalled across the region tonight. Any lingering clouds are expected to clear out rather quickly after sunset, with winds calming across the area. Clear skies and calm winds will yield good radiational cooling conditions. Lows are forecast to be a few degrees cooler, with low-30s expected across much of the forecast area (upper-30s to low-40s along the Outer Banks and Crystal Coast).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1345 Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Seasonable temps mid week through early next week

- A coastal low will likely bring rain to much of ENC this weekend Friday...Front will remain stalled across/near ENC on Friday. Conditions will remain dry, but cloud cover will steadily increase throughout the day ahead of the next system expected to push through ENC on Saturday. High temperatures are expected to warm to the upper-50s/near 60 F.

Saturday...A shortwave trough and its associated surface low will dig into the southern Plains Friday before traversing eastward across the Southeast on Saturday. A weak surface low will strengthen along the stalled boundary along/just south of the Crystal Coast Saturday into Saturday night before pushing offshore Sunday. This will bring the next round of rainfall to ENC Saturday/Saturday night, with rainfall totals generally forecast to be 0.5-1". Temps are forecast to remain seasonable (highs in the 50s) ahead of the low on Saturday.

Sunday/Monday...Rain chances drop off Sunday morning as the low pulls offshore. High pressure building into the region will bring clearing skies and slightly cooler temps, with highs near 50 Sunday/Monday.

Tuesday/Wednesday...High pressure shifts offshore early to mid next week. In response, winds swing to southwesterly, which will allow temps to climb well into the 50s Tuesday and low-to-mid 60s Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1245 AM Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A weak moisture starved system is bringing high clouds across rtes early this morning but otherwise expect mainly clear skies. SW winds around 5-10 kt this morning will become WNW late morning and afternoon with gusts around 15 kt, then light and variable tonight.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the end of the work week. A low pressure area is forecast to pass along the coast Saturday and Saturday night bringing a chance rain and sub- VFR conditions across ENC.

MARINE

As of 130 AM Thursday...

Key Messages...

- SCA conditions continue through late morning/early afternoon today for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters

- Low pressure traversing along the coastline Saturday/Sunday brings rain and another round of SCA conditions

Pressure gradient has tightened across the region over the past few hours, with southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 kts across area waters. Gusts to 25-30 kts have been observed across the coastal waters, with occasional gusts to 25 kts also noted across the Pamlico Sound. SCA conditions are expected to linger across these waters through the late morning/early afternoon hours today before winds begin to relax. Waves have been slow to respond to the uptick in winds thus far, but the current forecast still shows a brief period of 6 footers across the Gulf Stream waters through ~noon today before waves subside.

Winds decrease to 10-15 kts (gusts 15-20 kts) across the waters this afternoon. A weak cold front is forecast to approach from the north later today before stalling across the region. Winds will be northerly to the north of this boundary and generally westerly farther to the south.

Friday...Winds generally west-southwesterly at 5-10 kts with gusts to 15 kts. Waves 2-4 ft.

Saturday/Sunday...Weak low pressure works eastward across the Southeastern US before strengthening along/just south of the ENC coastline Saturday into Saturday night before pulling offshore Sunday. Expecting elevated winds and seas along with rain across area waters, with SCA conditions likely developing Saturday evening. High pressure then builds back late Sunday as conditions begin to improve.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ135-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 152-154.