textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes since the previous update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Canadian high pressure system builds in from the north and west bringing a few days of dry weather and cooler temperatures to ENC.

2) Low pressure is forecast to impact the area this weekend bringing another round of rain and potentially a few thunderstorms.

3) Increasing signal for above normal temperatures next week.

MARINE...Risk for hazardous boating conditions for small craft through Thursday morning along the coastal waters.

Monitoring the potential for marine impacts this weekend into early next week associated with low pressure moving through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Previously mentioned cold front has since moved well to the south with a canadian high pressure system gradually building in from the north and west. This has generally brought steady but light N'rly flow, cooler conditions and much drier air to the region this morning. Temps are currently in the upper 30s to mid 40s across ENC as of this update and generally expect temps to fall into the mid to low 30s everywhere by daybreak. The other real story has been the much drier air that has moved into the region this morning with dewpoints fallen into the teens to low 20s inland. This will keep skies mo clear through this morning.

As we get into today and move into Friday and Saturday, modest CAA, a drier airmass, and light winds will lead to a cool but pleasant few days as high pressure gradually builds overhead. Mo clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast across the region into this weekend. Highs today range from the 40s to mid 50s, while lows tonight get into the 20s. With dewpoints in the 20s today, RH's this afternoon will get to about 25-35% across inland locations. While these low RH's generally would be slightly concerning, given the lack of strong winds and the recent rainfall, not expecting any fire weather concerns. With high pressure moving overhead, good radiational cooling conditions are expected by Friday night, setting the stage for the coldest night of the weekend. Highs on Fri get into the 40s to low 50s with lows Fri night potentially dipping into the mid to low 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Biggest change in the forecast is that the further suppressed track for our previously mentioned surface low appears to be more likely with guidance also trending weaker overall with this low since the previous update. This will do two things. First this may lead to more of a steady rainfall event and second a slightly lower thunderstorm risk as compared to previous updates.

Upper level pattern appears to be slightly more in focus with just general disagreements with the speed and how strong the upper level low currently over California will be as it reaches the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic later this weekend. Ensemble guidance and now most deterministic guidance seem to favor the weaker solution. This in turn would bring us a 24 hour or so period of steady light to moderate rain with minimal instability advection thus lowering the overall thunderstorm risk outside of the Gulf Stream waters. As a result have lowered the tstm risk across our inland zones for now. Either way given the slight differences in speed and strength of this low, there are still a few minor things to monitor such as eventual winds across the region (stronger or weaker) and temperatures (colder vs warmer). For now ensemble guidance gives a 30-50% chance of over 1" of rainfall with much of the deterministic guidance suggesting around 1-2" of rainfall Sunday into Monday which would be greatly needed given the ongoing drought. With theses rainfall amounts currently forecast WPC has placed the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. However, given how dry we have been, the risk for flooding from this rainfall event is likely very limited overall.

KEY MESSAGE 3...No real changes for later next week as ensemble guidance continues to forecast a notable upper level trough developing east of the Rockies, with the low- level flow becoming southerly across the Carolinas. Synoptically, this pattern favors above normal temperatures for ENC. Adding support to this potential, the latest guidance from the Climate Prediction Center gives a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures across our area next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with only sct mid and high clouds. NW winds and dry air will inhibit the fog threat this morning.

Outlook: VFR expected to prevail until later in the weekend when a low pressure system moving across the southern CONUS combines with a weak low forming off of the coast to bring some more unsettled weather to the area.

MARINE

The previously mentioned cold front has dropped south of our waters as of this update. While winds have taken their time to increase across our waters, south of Cape Hatteras we finally see widespread 15-20 kt N'rly winds with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Elsewhere slightly lighter winds are in place. As a result the ongoing small craft advisories have not been changed and remain in place across just our coastal waters. While seas generally remain around 3-5 ft this morning do expect a brief bump up to 4-6 ft mainly across the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet. This will keep small crafts in place across the waters north of Ocracoke into this afternoon. With small crafts south of Ocracoke still forecast to end by about 7AM as winds fall closer to 10-15 kts with gusts up towards 20 kts. High pressure builds overhead tonight into Fri allowing for winds and seas to ease with winds lowering closer to 10-15 kts and seas falling to 2-4 ft resulting in the last of the small crafts ending by about 4PM today. From Thursday night through Fri N'rly winds remain at 5-15 kts and seas remain around 2-4 ft bringing rather benign boating conditions to our waters into this weekend.

Outlook: Our attention continues to turn to an approaching low pressure system on Sun and Mon, though some further agreement in overall evolution of this low appears to be taking shape. Guidance has begun to favor a more suppressed and weaker low impacting the area. While it still appears we will see small craft conditions across the region late this weekend into early next week the threat for gales has lowered compared to previous updates. High pressure is forecast to eventually build into the area by midweek next week once again resulting in more benign boating conditions.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.