textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry with above normal temperatures this week.

2) A strong front will move through the area late week into the first part of the weekend. Cooler and drier weather behind the front, along with gusty N-NW winds which could bring dangerous marine conditions and coastal impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front will continue to push offshore early this morning, with high pressure building in from the west through most of this week. Temps will gradually warm through the week as heights build. By mid to late week highs will again be back into the 80s for most of the area. A backdoor front may impact the area Thu, but at this time just looks to be a wind shift.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front will push through the area Friday night, with strong high pressure building in for the weekend. Front looks moisture starved, but could bring sct shower chances. Cooler and drier airmass will build into the region this weekend, feeling like fall, with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s/50s. N-NW winds continue to trend a bit stronger behind the front, which could bring dangerous marine conditions along with the potential for coastal impacts. Though too soon for any specifics.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions across the terminals early this morning. Upper trough moving off the coast late morning could bring a brief period of MVFR cigs to the terminals late morning and early afternoon, with best chances at PGV. NW winds will gust 15-20 kt late morning and afternoon. Patchy inland fog will be possible overnight into early Tue morning, though too low confidence to include in TAFs at this time.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): Pred VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure builds in.

MARINE

Latest obs show W winds 15-25 kt with seas 4-8 ft. Cold front will continue to push through the waters early this morning and offshore. Winds will peak at 20-25 kt this morning, grad diminishing and veering through the day. SCAs continue for the coastal waters and sounds. N-NE winds will continue to diminish to 5-15 kt tonight with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): High pres builds in Tue through the remainder of the week with pleasant boating conditions expected. Another front will push through the waters later in the week, likely Thursday, then a stronger front Friday night. Strong N-NNW winds expected behind the front this weekend, and could see Gale and/or SCA conditions.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158.