textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered minimum temperatures tonight

Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke Inlet has been extended until 2 PM tomorrow

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures through Wednesday

2) Dry with a warming trend late-week through Sunday

3) Next frontal passage not expected until late Sunday/early next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The Arctic airmass that's building in behind yesterday's cold front will keep temperatures well below normal today and tomorrow. Today, highs will be in the upper 40s/low 50s with ample sunshine. A reinforcing cold front will drop south across the area tonight and send lows into the mid 20s to low 30s. Tomorrow, the surface high will move east and expand across the Eastern CONUS. We'll have a little more cloud cover but temperatures will be about the same as today. Lows tomorrow night will be around freezing for inland zones and low 40s for the beaches. Given that we've had several warm days recently, precautions should be taken to protect any vulnerable plants.

KEY MESSAGE 2...We'll gradually warm from late-week through the weekend. On Thursday, temperatures will be in the upper 50s/low 60s inland and low 50s at the beaches. By Sunday, inland temperatures will be back into the upper 70s/low 80s with the beaches reaching the mid 60s. Chances for precipitation will remain <10% through late weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Our next front isn't expected until late this Sunday or early next week, which will bring our next chance for showers and a slight cool down.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Pred VFR conditions and light winds expected through the period with skies mostly clear tonight, and then periods of high based clouds tomorrow.

Outlook...Pred VFR flight cats will continue through the period with high pressure dominating the forecast through the remainder of the work-week.

MARINE

NW winds at 10-15 kt will veer to the north overnight and increase to 15-20 kt. Diamond Shoals is the only buoy that continues to report 6 ft but may briefly drop below 6 ft by later today. With the uptick in winds tonight, seas will build back to 6 ft across the central waters and may linger into tomorrow afternoon. Therefore, the SCA for the coastal waters between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke Inlet has been extended until 2 PM tomorrow. Winds will continue to veer to the NE by mid-morning and decrease to 10-15 kt.

Outlook: Good boating conditions are expected through the rest of the week as high pressure builds in. Winds will generally be 5-15 kt with 2-5 ft seas. The next best chance for SCAs will be late this weekend and into early next week with the passage of a cold front.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.