textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories expanded to include the Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near record temperatures possible each afternoon through Saturday.

2) Drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through the end of the week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday.

3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temperatures are expected today through Saturday thanks to warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This should equate to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Friday may be a touch cooler with more widespread cloudiness around as an upper level shortwave moves through the region. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10- 50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). To give a little more perspective, most climate sites in the Southeast U.S., including here in ENC, haven't seen measurable precipitation in at least 10 days during what would normally be a wetter time of year. Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with meaningful rainfall unlikely through the end of the week. Looking further out in time, longer- range guidance suggests this dry pattern may last at least another 1- 2 weeks, with a pattern change possible by late April or early May.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. An Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect today, and additional statements or fire weather headlines may be needed through the week and into the weekend. Of note, increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions beginning today on all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the upcoming weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There may be just enough low- level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While guidance remains consistent in this potential, rainfall amounts do not look overly impressive or "drought-denting" in any way. The latest ensemble guidance suggests about 0.10"-0.30" of rain. While instability currently looks modest, at best, any thunderstorms that develop could produce higher amounts, but this would be over smaller areas. While instability is currently forecast to be modest, deep layer shear of 50-60kt would be supportive of organized convection. Machine learning guidance shows a fairly weak signal for severe thunderstorm potential, but we'll continue to monitor this risk as the weekend draws closer.

Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s to start the new week.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Primarily VFR TAF through the period. Steady SW winds at 5-10 kts and 15-20 kt gusts forecast into this evening before winds ease. Once again a seabreeze is expected to begin pushing inland within the next hour or two shifting winds along our coastal TAF sites (EWN/OAJ) to a more S'rly direction with the seabreeze struggling to get to our further inland TAF sites. SW winds continue into Fri morning out ahead of an approaching cold front. Given the steady SW winds think we remain well mixed enough to preclude any vis/ceilings issues overnight so have kept the TAF VFR into Fri afternoon. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to shift winds on Fri to a W to NW direction at about 5 kts or so. It will also bring an increase in cloud cover and perhaps some iso SHRA/TSRA Fri afternoon as the front quickly tracks offshore. The latest guidance suggests the greatest TSRA risk (15-20%) will be focused from KPGV east through KFFA. Elsewhere, the risk is lower (around 5-10%). Gusty winds could accompany any SHRA or TSRA that develops on Friday.

Outlook: The next opportunity for sub-VFR conditions is then expected on Sunday as a cold front moves through. Once again, a period of gusty winds is expected in addition to a risk of TSRA (15- 25% chance).

MARINE

Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist across the Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout through tomorrow as the thermal and pressure gradients fluctuate. Elsewhere, 25 kt wind gusts will be less frequent but still possible, especially during the peak of the thermal gradient late this afternoon through this evening.

Winds will continue to be out of the SW at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20- 25 kt through tomorrow morning. A weak front will cross the area tomorrow and winds will become SW/S at 5-15 kt through tomorrow night. Seas will generally be 3-5 ft through tomorrow night, but could occasionally reach 6 feet, especially over the Gulf Stream late tonight/early tomorrow.

Outlook: Southwest winds will increase again this weekend ahead of a cold front. The latest forecast has SW winds reaching 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt during the first half of Sunday. As the front passes, winds will veer to the N and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Sunday night with the potential for some Gale force gusts. Seas are expected to build to 5-7 ft in response, peaking late Sunday/early Monday. Scattered thunderstorms may occur with the front as well.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1917 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1985 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156.