textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated water levels and minor street and property tidal flooding will continue to impact some coastal communities, mainly Downeast, thanks to ongoing high astronomical tides.

2) High pressure remains in place through Friday with light winds and above normal temperatures.

3) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system bringing next chance of rain this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...While wind and seas have come down, minor soundside flooding (1 ft or less) is still possible for mainly Downeast Carteret county through the next several high tide cycles. The high astronomical tides peak today, and already high water levels due to last week's wind event will keep water levels elevated mainly around the high tide cycles through the next couple days. Standing water on roadways, and in low lying or poor drainage areas, could have minor impacts for travelers in especially vulnerable areas prone to the tidal flooding. Elevated water levels will persist through Wednesday, but levels are not expected to be as high as they were the last several days. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the areas most at risk through today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level ridge will expand east across the Southeastern U.S. through the week. Beneath the ridge, light southerly flow and increasing low-level thicknesses should support a period of above to well above normal temperatures, especially on Thursday and Friday. Forecast aids are now showing an increasing signal for above normal temperatures, especially on Friday, adding confidence to the potential. For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees, and forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s for much of ENC, with some 90s possible inland. Persistent southerly flow and increasing low-level moisture should help to keep overnight lows higher as well, and well above the normal lows of around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the weekend, a weak area of low pressure is forecast to lift NE along a cold front that will be advancing southeast through the Eastern U.S. Ahead of the front and low, a pool of moisture over the Gulf is forecast to get pulled north into the Carolinas, supporting an increased risk of showers. There may be just enough instability present to support a risk of thunderstorms as well, especially on Sunday. For now, ensemble guidance is showing about a 30-50% chance of exceeding 1" of rain with this system. Any rain will be helpful, especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is currently in moderate to extreme drought.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours.

The coverage of mid-level CIGs is notably lower at this time compared to 24 hours ago, and this is expected to remain the case for the rest of the night. Despite high cirrus clouds overspreading the area from the SW, there should still be a risk of reduced VIS in MIFG/BR. A deep, and more impactful, FG is not expected.

During the day on Tuesday, a moistening easterly flow is expected as a weak area of low pressure moves away from the coast. Within this flow, SCT to BKN low CIGS (4-5k ft) are likely to develop. These CIGs should scatter out be Tuesday evening, setting up the potential for another night of good radiational cooling conditions. With a more moist boundary layer in place, the setup appears more favorable for BR/FG compared to tonight. Ensemble guidance shows a 30-50% chance of sub-VFR conditions due to reduced VIS. The greatest risk should hold off until just after the 06z TAF cycle, therefore there isn't any mention of BR/FG yet.

Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG, a low-impact aviation period is expected through the end of the work week.

MARINE

A weak area of low pressure will move east through the outer coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras this morning. Strong winds are not expected with this low due to the weak nature of the low (currently around 1015mb). In the wake of this low, a 5-10kt easterly flow is expected to develop across all waters. Of note, some funneling through the Albemarle Sound may allow a period of 10-15kt winds there. East to southeast flow persists into Wednesday, but will remain light.

For the coastal waters, seas of 2-3ft will be common through Wednesday.

Outlook: Good boating conditions are expected through at least Friday. By the weekend, a front will be approaching the area from the NW, and this is expected to lead to a modest increase in south to southwest winds. Increasing moisture plus weak instability may eventually lead to a risk of thunderstorms as well, especially on Sunday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ195-196. MARINE...None.