textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Small Craft Advisories for the central and southern waters have been extended out further in time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm with showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday- Friday

Marine: Elevated winds and seas continue into today, especially south of Cape Hatteras.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Medium range guidance are beginning to converge on a solution for the mid to late-week period, but there are still some notable differences. Where guidance is fairly well clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be shifting east out of the Central U.S. While there is still some potential for a cutoff low to develop, most guidance have now trended towards more of a progressive and open wave as it moves through the Eastern U.S. Guidance differ on the timing, which leads to differences in precipitation placement, temperatures, etc. But, most guidance is now centering on the best chance of showers and thunderstorms coming Thursday and/or Friday. Of note, some guidance are showing anomalous moisture and higher- than-normal instability for early November. This would support the potential of some higher rainfall rates and totals should this materialize. It may even support at least a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. While there is some synoptic support for this potential, machine learning guidance doesn't show that strong of a signal. It's something worth keeping an eye on as the evolution of the upper level, and surface, pattern become more clear.

The other aspect of the forecast that appears to be coming more clear this week is the potential for above to well above normal temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday. While record highs may not be broken, warming low-level thicknesses in advance of the approaching trough should support highs warming into the 70s, with some low 80s possible inland. Meanwhile, overnight lows are forecast to be closer to our normal highs for this time of year. Some record warm lows may be in jeopardy. For reference, normal highs are around 70 in early November, with normal lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

The weather pattern over the next 24 hours remains mostly unchanged from the past 24 hours, with a northeast flow regime and widespread high CIGs. The northeast winds may be gusty at times on Sunday, but mainly at KMRH. Later tonight, some of the latest short-term guidance is hinting at the potential for reduced VIS in BR/MIFG. For now, the TAFs will not reflect this potential, mainly due to the expectation that widespread high clouds will limit radiational cooling potential, making the risk lower.

Outlook: While the weather pattern doesn't drastically change, a moistening easterly flow and a weak upper level wave may support a risk of sub-VFR CIGs and SHRA Monday through Monday night, especially for coastal TAF sites. Confidence in this risk developing is moderate. Drier air is expected to move in on Tuesday, likely lowering the risk of sub-VFR CIGs and SHRA.

MARINE

A pinched surface gradient remains in place today with coastal troughing offshore and a strong surface high anchored over the Mid- Atlantic States. This should continue to support elevated northeast winds of 15-25kt through much of the day. It may not be until Monday that the gradient begins to relax more notably. The elevated winds will continue to keep seas up, with 4-6 foot seas common for most coastal waters. By Monday afternoon, seas are forecast to lay down to 3-5 ft. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore coastal waters where elevated winds and seas are forecast to have the most impact. Some extensions in time may be needed, especially for the waters south of Ocracoke Inlet. In fact, some guidance suggests elevated seas may last into Monday in that area.

Outlook: Coastal troughing is forecast to remain intact through at least the middle of the week, with the strongest gradient and highest winds focused across the central and southern waters. The coastal trough may drift inland by Wednesday with more of a dominant easterly flow developing for most waters. The flow then begins to become southeasterly by Thursday in the wake of the inland-advancing coastal trough. Guidance continue to keep probs for 25kt+ winds low through Thursday. However, there is a broad signal for low pressure development over the Southwest Atlantic later in the week. Should this occur, there may be an accompanying risk of 6ft+ long-period swell development.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ156- 158.