textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High confidence remains that Eastern NC will see a Major Winter Storm develop Saturday into Sunday across the Carolinas, with a wide range of snowfall totals within Eastern NC.

Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for all of Eastern North Carolina. Have kept Blizzard Condition mentions for the northern Outer Banks with potential for whiteout conditions mentioned everywhere else.

Storm Warnings remain in effect for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers which are under a gale warning. These all begin starting Saturday afternoon.

High Wind Warnings remain in effect for all OBX zones and Downeast Carteret county. Wind Advisories remain in effect for Mainland Dare and Hyde, Tyrrell, Washington, Beaufort, Pamlico, Southern Craven, and Western Carteret counties starting Saturday evening.

Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret. THere is now a coastal flood advisory for southern Craven and Pamlico Counties as well.

Have upgraded the Extreme Cold Watch for Saturday night into Sunday to an Extreme Cold Warning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Major Winter Storm to develop across the Carolinas this weekend, as an area of low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast.

a) Heavy Snow:

Several inches of snow is expected across all of Eastern NC, with some swaths seeing up to 12-18" where banding occurs. Snow rates of up to 1-2" per hour are possible. Strong winds will coincide with the heaviest snow rates, which will produce near whiteout conditions at times, and even blizzard conditions along the northern OBX.

b) Wind:

A rapidly deepening bomb cyclone will produce very strong winds across Eastern NC, especially the coast. Peak wind gusts will likely reach 40-55 mph inland, and 55-70 mph along the coast and OBX early Sunday morning. These winds along the Outer Banks could result in scattered power outages and some weaker trees blown down.

c) Extreme Cold:

More extreme cold is expected during and after the winter storm, with wind chills likely falling below 0 Sunday and Monday mornings, with little reprieve in the daytime Sunday.

d) Coastal Flooding:

Potential for moderate to locally significant coastal flooding for areas along the Outer Banks and adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound.

2) MARINE...Extremely dangerous marine conditions expected this weekend as a low pressure system deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Storm conditions are expected for most waters, along with wave heights 10-20 feet for coastal waters.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1a-1b... No real changes to the forecast thinking as a major winter storm is forecast to unfold this weekend across the Carolinas as an area of low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Confidence remains high and continues to increase that much of the area will see several inches of snow, with some spots seeing a foot or more of snow. Mesoscale features could also result in significant differences in snowfall amounts between localized areas with strong frontogenetic banding features enhancing snow totals or mesoscale areas of dry slotting which may lead to localized areas of lower snow totals. While a higher end potential of 1+ feet of snow still exists along the coast, the current forecast has trended down to 2-6" south of Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke with 4-10 inches still possible along the Crystal Coast. North of Oregon Inlet (NOBX), there is still ample support of higher snowfall totals, reflected in the current forecast of 6-10".

In addition to the potential major impacts of the heavy snow, very strong winds will develop as the low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. These strong winds will further reduce visibilities, leading to blowing and drifting snow, and could lead to blizzard conditions developing across the northern OBX with lower chances across the rest of eastern NC though chances are not zero here either.

Potential Life Threatening Situations: The combination of these hazards will make travel impossible and could lead to life threatening situations if motorists become stranded due to the extreme cold temperatures that will move in Sunday morning. Additionally, scattered power outages are possible due to strong winds/heavy snow knocking down power lines and/or trees. Power restoration may be slow due to treacherous road conditions, and residents should prepare for the potential for longer term power outages with extremely cold temperatures outside.

Historically, this storm's setup is most like the December 24, 1989 and early March 1980 storms. Both of these historic events produced 12+" of snow for Eastern North Carolina with accumulations from the March 1980 storm nearing 24" in some areas. While there's potential for this weekend's snow accumulations to be comparable to these past events, keep in mind no two storms are alike and shifts in mesoscale features could certainly impact over snow totals and who sees what. However, with the probabilities of higher snow amounts continuing, the higher end amounts should not be taken lightly when thinking about storm preparation. No matter how much snow falls, it will not melt quickly due to the extremely cold air that will build in behind this system. Temperatures aren't expected to approach freezing until Monday, but some areas may not get above freezing until Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1c... Extremely cold air will stick around behind the winter storm with the potential to set additional new record low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows will be 10-20F Sunday night/Monday morning with dangerously cold wind chills in the sub-zero to single digit range. High temperatures will be below freezing on Sunday and just above freezing on Monday, but it's possible some inland areas to remain below freezing from tonight until Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1d... The combination of very strong winds, wave action and high astronomical tides will lead to moderate to locally significant coastal flooding impacts, both soundside and oceanside. Impacts will likely begin on the oceanside mainly north of Cape Hatteras and transition to soundside, mainly south of Oregon Inlet as winds back from NE to NW Sat afternoon into Sun. This will likely lead to travel impacts for vulnerable portions of NC-12, especially for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Have updated the previous coastal flood watch to a coastal flood warning across Downeast Carteret, with a coastal flood warning remaining in effect for the rest of the OBX, with potential for 2-4 ft of inundation (above ground level). A coastal flood advisory is now noted across southern Craven and Pamlico Counties for a threat for 1-2 ft inundation above ground level as strong NE to N winds pile up water along the mouth of the Neuse. At this time, greatest oceanside impacts expected from Duck to Ocracoke...and soundside impacts from Rodanthe to Downeast Carteret. Minor water rises possible for areas adjacent to the southern Albemarle Sound. High Surf Advisories have been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions currently across the terminals, then likely deteriorating late tonight and Saturday, becoming widespread sub- VFR. Mid and high clouds continue to stream into the region this evening gradually lowering to MVFR between 6-12z. Light snow is expected to develop across much of the area by Saturday morning as well increasing in intensity Sat afternoon and eve. Could see more of a rain/snow mix or plain rain across Hatteras/Ocracoke Islands to begin with an eventual transition to snow where slightly warmer temperatures expected. Periods of IFR will be possible Sat afternoon and evening, esp with vsbys with heavier snowfall rates. Light NE'rly breezes this evening will increase through the night, peaking Sat afternoon and evening...with gusts 25-35 kt.

Outlook: Widespread sub-VFR conditions will continue Sat night into the first part of Sunday as strong coastal low brings significant snowfall accumulations, poor visibilities, and potential blowing and drifting snow due to wind gusts of 35-40 kt. Conditions will gradually improve through the day Sunday, then likely remaining VFR Sunday night into mid next week.

MARINE

Boating conditions quickly deteriorate tonight as gale force NE'rly winds begin to encroach upon our waters after midnight with 3-5 ft seas quickly building tonight to 5-7 as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a developing low pressure system to our south. Conditions deteriorate further with Storm force winds gusts forecast across all waters by this evening outside of the Pamlico/Pungo Rivers where strong gale force winds remain. Seas continue to build further to 8-12 ft by SAt evening. This will make boating conditions treacherous for all marine traffic with conditions forecast to become even worse Sat night into Sunday across our waters.

Outlook: A rapidly deepening low pressure system and potentially bomb cyclone will produce extremely dangerous marine conditions tonight through the weekend. Storm force winds of 40-50 kts are expected with the potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts (64+ kts) across portions of the coastal waters. Seas could reach 15-20 ft.

Storm Warnings remain in effect for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (Gale Warning) starting Saturday evening. Conditions will slowly improve Sunday night with winds forecast to drop below SCA criteria by Monday afternoon. 6+ ft seas may linger into Tuesday morning.

CLIMATE

Record Low temps for 02/02 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 19 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 20 1977 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12 1971 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 13 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 16 1980 (NCA ASOS)

Record Low temps for 02/03 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 9 1917 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 12 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for NCZ029-044-046-047-079-080-091-196-203. Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194- 198-199. Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199- 203. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for NCZ045-081-090-092-094-193>195-198-199. Wind Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NCZ045- 080-081-094-194-195. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for NCZ046- 047. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NCZ094-194. Coastal Flood Warning from noon Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NCZ196. High Wind Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NCZ196. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM Saturday to midnight EST Sunday night for NCZ203>205. High Wind Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ203-205. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for NCZ204-205. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Storm Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ131- 135-137-230-231. Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ136. Storm Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150. Storm Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152- 154-156. Storm Warning from 4 PM Saturday to noon EST Sunday for AMZ158.