textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will continue to shift offshore tonight and Thursday with warming temperatures. A strong cold front will move through Thursday night with high pressure for the end of the week into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

As of 145 PM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over the SE US. The high will cont to shift offshore tonight as cold front moves through the Mid-West...while mid and high clouds cont to stream in from the west. Cont warming trend as tonight's lows will be quite a bit warmer than the last few mornings, with lows expected in the 30s inland, with 40s on the beaches. Low probability for patchy inland fog development overnight as low level moisture increases combined with calm winds.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 145 PM Wed...Cont good shift to shift continuity on rain moving into ENC rapidly from W to E Thu evening. Cont to fcst some chc pops Thu afternoon as a couple showers may move during the afternoon...with best chances along the immediate coast. Overnight categorical pops of 90-100% on track with moderate to occ heavy rain albeit brief in nature, as bulk of rain sweeps offshore by sunrise Fri. Thunder probabilities cont only 10-20% for the bulk of ENC, but a localized higher chance exists for areas from Cape Lookout to Hatteras, as vcnty of Gulf Stream on strong srly flow may advect some offshore instability onto the OBX. Rest of the FA will be protected by very chilly waters on the sounds and nearshore shelf waters off the Crystal Coast. Generally expecting around 1" of rain for most areas, with highest QPF on the OBX/Downeast where some convective elements may sneak onshore.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 145 PM Wed...Cold front pushes east by early Fri, with dry conditions returning. Zonal flow ensues behind fropa, so temps will actually be above climo behind it, with highs in the 55-65 range and lows in the 30s to 40s.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 730 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Chances for patchy fog late tonight and early Thursday morning

- Increasing cloud cover & lowering CIGs Thursday afternoon with approaching front

Primary forecast challenge through the TAF period is the potential for fog development tonight. There are several factors working for and also against fog development. The dewpoints have been steadily rising this afternoon as S to SW flow is advecting greater moisture into the area, however lows tonight will be well above crossover temps, which typically is a limiting factor for development. Extensive high clouds will also limit radiational cooling, however saturated sfc conditions and light/calm winds are expected across much of the area. Several of the High Res models are developing fog, though probabilistically chances are low to moderate; LAMP probabilities are around 30-50% chance for MVFR to IFR visibilities late tonight while HREF probs are around 20-30% north of the Tar/Pamlico River and 10-20% to the south. I did reintroduce patchy fog in the forecast limiting vsbys to MVFR at this time giving the uncertainty. Any fog that develops should dissipate by 13z.

VFR will prevail through the rest of the TAF period with abundant mid and high clouds through the day Thursday, which will be lowering late afternoon as a frontal system approaches from the west. Cannot rule out a stray shower as a warm front lifts across the area, mainly near the coast. Winds will become S to SE around 5-10 kt and could see gusts up to 15-20 kt during the afternoon.

Outlook: An approaching front will bring good chances for sub- VFR flight cats with widespread rain with isolated thunderstorms Thursday night. LLWS will also be a concern for much of Thursday night. Showers will linger into Friday morning but expect clearing from W to E with VFR conditions returning late Friday and remain pred-VFR through the weekend as high pressure returns.

MARINE

As of 7 PM Wed...

Key Messages:

- Gale conditions likely for the Gulf Stream waters Thursday night to early Friday as next cold front approaches, with SCA rest of the marine waters. Gale Warning in effect for coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Surf City.

Through tonight...Latest obs show primarily SW-W winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Winds have been a bit higher across the outer portions of the central waters near the Gulf Stream this afternoon but have begun to decrease as gradients loosen and have allowed the SCA from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout expire at 6 pm. May see an occasional gust near 25 kt for the next couple of hours. Winds diminish to 10 kt or less overnight.

Thursday into Friday...Cold front approaches on Thu with srly gradient inc to 10-20 kt. Thu night flow inc further ahead of strong front approaching, with srly winds of 25-35 gusting 35-40 kt along the Gulf Stream, though remaining 15-25 kt with ocnl higher gusts elsewhere as shallow but stout marine inversion in place with recent arctic outbreak. With the gales developing Thu night, seas quickly build to 6-12+ ft and peak during the late night hours. Winds turn wrly to nwrly on Friday behind the cold front and may remain elevated in the 15-25 G 30 kt range before diminishing prior to the weekend. Upgraded to Gale Warnings for the central and southern waters, and SCAs for the sounds and northern waters.

Saturday through Sunday...Pleasant boating conditions look to be in place for the weekend with high pres overhead on Sat leading to light/vrb winds. The high passes offshore Sat night into Sun with return swrly flow inc on Sunday into the 15-20 kt offshore waters, 5-15 kt nearshore and the sounds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to noon EST Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 8 PM Thursday to noon EST Friday for AMZ152- 154-156-158.