textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Not much.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches (highest along the coast) today and tonight.

2) Well above normal to near record high temperatures are expected mid to late next week.

AVIATION...Widespread IFR and LIFR conditions expected this evening through tomorrow morning, along with a threat for LLWS.

MARINE...Strong Small Craft and Gale conditions will develop by this evening as a low pressure systems passes over ENC tonight. Gale Force winds will continue through Monday for portions of the coastal waters as the low deepens and pulls away from the coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A low pressure system will track east across the Gulf states today, northeast towards the Carolinas this evening, and off the Outer Banks by late tonight. Showers will become more widespread this afternoon as the low continues to spin eastward. The heaviest rain will occur tonight as better forcing arrives with the low tracking over the area. 1-2 inches of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible, especially along the coast and the Outer Banks where a few thunderstorms may develop. Rain chances will quickly decrease early Monday morning as the low moves out to sea. Additionally, gusty conditions will develop tonight and last through most of tomorrow, and coastal areas could gust to 25-40 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2...As the low departs on Monday, high pressure will move in behind it, and we will begin a warming trend that will last through Friday. After near normal conditions Monday, heights will steadily rise through the week with highs reaching the 60s Tuesday, low 70s Wednesday, and mid to upper 70s Thursday and Friday, which could be near record in some locations. Along the coast, it will be a different story due to the frigid water temperatures, which will keep temperatures mostly in the 60s this week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions with -RA this afternoon will quickly deteriorate with widespread sub- VFR this evening into Monday as rain overspreads the area. Moisture advection within ongoing southerly low- level flow has lead to cigs gradually lowering through the day, and will continue to do so over the next 3-6 hours. Light to moderate RA will continue to accompany the drop down to IFR/LIFR CIGs, which is expected to lead to reductions to VIS at times, especially after 22Z. LLWS impacts are expected to last through much of tonight, followed by a risk of impacts from gusty northerly winds on Monday. A low-end TSRA risk will be present into tonight as well, but mainly along the coast.

After the low moves offshore and rain tapers off, low ceilings will continue to linger through the morning hours Monday. By the afternoon we could see some breaks in the clouds and rising ceilings to MVFR levels. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on coverage and height of ceilings Monday in the wake of the low. High pressure will be moving over the region late Monday, but some low level moisture may still be present in the northerly flow regime between the departing deepening low and the approaching high. Best case scenario by the afternoon skies start breaking up and rising to VFR levels. Meanwhile, the worst case scenario is sub-VFR ceilings linger through the day Monday.

Outlook: Monday night/Tuesday morning, high pressure overhead brings calm winds. If clouds clear in time, the calm winds, clearing skies, and recent rainfall will bring fog concerns to inland eastern NC early Tuesday morning. Along OBX, northerly flow between the high and the departing low will allow sub-VFR ceilings to linger through much of the night, potentially lowering in the form of fog.

MARINE

Conditions will deteriorate quickly this afternoon as winds increase rapidly ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound with Small Craft Advisories up for the remaining marine areas.

Southerly flow will ramp up quickly late this afternoon ahead of the low, with the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras reaching Gale force by this evening. This area can expect southerly to southwesterly winds at 25-35 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt (highest near Gulf Stream) through late tonight when the winds will then veer to the northwest as the low moves offshore after midnight. Northwesterly Gales will develop across the Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras early tomorrow morning behind the departing low with sustained winds at 25-30 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt. Strong Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop across all remaining marine zones late tonight with the northwesterly surge as the low pulls away from the coast. Seas will peak at 6-11 ft tonight/early Monday.

Outlook: Small craft seas (> 6ft) will persist for most of the coastal waters through at least Wednesday morning due to backswell from the low pressure system, which will deepen rapidly offshore. Thereafter, increasing SW winds, and perhaps some lingering backswell, will keep Small Craft conditions in the forecast through late this week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150-152. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ154-156. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ158.