textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move through early this morning. Mild and dry weather expected throughout the work week as high pressure builds in.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 215 AM Mon...Latest analysis shows cold front near Hwy 17 early this morning, quickly pushing eastward along with the upper trough. The front will continue to sweep through the area and offshore early this morning. While aloft, the upper trough axis departs to the NE as flow becomes more zonal and sfc high pressure builds in from the SW. Iso light showers possible for the next few hours, but based on radar trends the drier air aloft looks to be winning out. Skies will rapidly clear from west to east early this morning in the wake of the front with drier air pouring in with WNWerly CAA. WNW winds will gradually ease through the day. Low level thickness values and sunny skies support temps a few deg below normal, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 deg.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 215 AM Mon...High pressure will remain in control overnight, setting up for excellent radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and light/calm winds. That and given the dry airmass, went on the cooler side of guidance, with lows falling into the upper 30s to low 40s inland and upper 40s to mid 50s for the beaches.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 2 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- Mild and dry conditions expected through the coming week

- Next chance for rain not till late weekend

Near normal temperatures expected Tuesday with highs in the low-to- mid 70s. A dry, reinforcing cold front will then push through ENC Tuesday night, ushering in cooler temps and dewpoints ranging from the mid-30s to low-40s. This will bring near to slightly below average temperatures through much of the work week and large diurnal temperature swings amidst the dry atmospheric conditions, with lows in the low-40s quickly warming to highs in the upper-60s to near 70 each day. Fire wx concerns ramp up a bit due to downsloping flow, and RH's each afternoon well down into the 30s%. The good news is that winds will be light, with gusts no higher than 15-20 mph at best each afternoon.

Some guidance hints at the next chance of rain coming late this next weekend into the early portions of the following week with a weak shortwave trough traversing the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys. Substantial spread remains regarding timing and strength of any system, so chances for rain remain < 20%.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 215 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. A cold front will continue to push through the terminals early this morning. Iso shower chances possible through 8z. SW winds will become NW behind the front with gusts 15-25 kt, easing by late afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 2 AM Monday...Predominantly VFR conditions likely through the coming week as high pressure builds into the region following tonight's cold frontal passage.

MARINE

SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 215 AM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Winds and seas will peak this morning, gradually easing this afternoon. SCAs continue for the coastal waters and sounds today.

Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt, gusting 20-25 kt, with seas 5-9 ft. The cold front will push through the waters early this morning, becoming NW 15-25 kt behind the front. SCAs continue for the coastal waters and sounds through this morning and afternoon. Winds and seas will peak this morning, gradually easing this afternoon and evening. Light W winds overnight with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 2 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- Chance for brief SCA conditions across coastal waters amidst a southwesterly surge Tuesday night

Winds again swing to southwesterly on Tuesday ahead of a reinforcing cold front, increasing again to 10-20 kts. Reinforcing cold front pushes through ENC Tuesday night, bringing the potential for some brief SCA conditions Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as winds increase to 20 kts with some gusts to 25 kts possible across the coastal waters. Winds then become northwesterly at 10-15 knots before veering to northerly on Friday.

Waves of 2-4 ft on Tuesday build to 4-6 ft Tuesday night as southwesterly winds pick up ahead of the advancing cold front. Waves quickly subside to 3-5 ft Wednesday, becoming 2-4 ft through Friday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152- 154.