textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Arctic high pressure eases offshore through mid week with warming temperatures. Another strong cold front then moves through Thursday night with high pressure for the end of the week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 230 PM Tue...Not nearly as cold tonight as last night, but with dewpoints still only in the mid teens especially inland, we expect a quick temp drop after sunset. Added some colder values in our normally colder spots (Kenansville, Hoffman forest, Croatan Forest, Pungo Lake, etc), with mid 20s possible here with 30s closer to the coast. Only thing that may save us from dropping even lower is a slight uptick in wind from the calm conditions last night.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/

As of 230 PM Tue...Gradual warming trend continues with a return flow from the southwest, pushing temps close to 60 especially across the south. 12Z Bufkit soundings do show a pronounced increase in moisture after 16Z between 25 and 30KFT. Late in the day we also see increasing clouds in the mid levels. That should all transpire to bright sunshine, giving way to filtered sunshine and eventually mostly cloudy conditions late in the day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 230 PM Tue...

Wednesday night through Tuesday...

Model precip chances continue to trend upward but with a wonderful forecast from our co workers last night, well in line with our current forecast. Chances will increase later Thursday afternoon and peak Thursday night (90%+) as guidance in good agreement on strongly forced fropa overnight. A solid half of an inch is expected in QPF with locally higher amounts. Thunder chc have increased slightly with some guidance showing limited MLCAPES of a few hundred j/kg and some lifted indices near zero. As the previous shift mentioned this is is combating the now much colder nearshore shelf/sound waters. A storm may migrate onshore the ctrl/srn OBX off the Gulf or even into the Crystal Coast (especially Bogue Banks through Cape Lookout) and kept in a 20%-30% here for that small threat of thunder. No svr expected, but a bout of heavy showers Thu evening may accompany the front.

Friday through Tuesday...Cold front pushes east by week's end, with dry conditions returning. Zonal flow ensues behind fropa, so temps will actually be above climo behind it, with highs in the 55-65 range and lows in the 30s to 40s.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 110 PM Tue...

Key Messages

- VFR conditions expected through the period

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with high pressure remains overhead keeping sky's clear and the area dry. Increasing mid and high clouds Wed.

Outlook: The next chance at sub-VFR conditions will be Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system. VFR conditions then return this weekend.

MARINE

As of 230 PM Tue...

Key Messages:

- Gale conditions possible for the Gulf Stream waters Thursday night to early Friday as next cold front approaches, with SCA rest of the marine waters.

Through Wednesday...Moderate to light W-SW 5-15 kt returns through mid week. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday but should be brief and no headlines anticipated attm.

Thursday into Saturday...Cold front approaches on Thu with srly gradient inc to 10-20 kt. Thu night flow inc further ahead of strong front approaching, with srly winds of 25-35 G 40 kt on the Gulf, though remaining 15-25 G 30 elsewhere as stout marine inversion in place with recent arctic outbreak. Seas build to 6-11 ft on the waters south of Oregon Inlet due to the strong srly flow Thu night. Winds turn wrly to nwrly on Friday behind the cold front and may remain elevated in the 15-25 G 30 kt range before diminishing prior to the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.