textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will push through the area tonight. An area of low pressure will develop along the front Saturday before pushing farther offshore on Sunday. High pressure then builds back in by early next week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 2 PM Fri...Latest analysis shows weak front draped through VA through the Appalachians and back across the central US. The front will sink back southward as a cold front tonight, with winds becoming northeasterly. Increasing low-to-mid level frontogenesis is expected to develop in advance of the approaching shortwave and associated area of low pressure. This combined with increasing mid-level moisture along the frontal zone will lead to increasing clouds and potentially light rain developing prior to sunrise Saturday morning. Warmer overnight with lows only falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 2 PM Fri...

Key Messages...

- Widespread light to moderate rain expected Sat and Sat evening

Shortwave will swing eastward across the SE US, as low pressure develops and strengthens along the stalled frontal boundary, moving along the NC coast late Sat and Sat night, then gradually pushing offshore Sun. Warm air advection and an increase in low- to- mid level frontogenesis will combine to yield better forcing for ascent across ENC, with widespread light to moderate rain overspreading the area. Rainfall amounts still expected to be generally 0.25-0.75", though still dependent on low track. Lowered temps a few degrees with widespread clouds and NE flow, which should keep highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. Rain will taper off from west to east Sat night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 2 PM Fri...

Sunday/Monday...Rain chances taper off quickly from west to east early Sunday morning as the low pulls offshore. High pressure building into the region will bring clearing skies and slightly cooler temps, with highs near 50 Sunday/Monday.

Tuesday/Wednesday...High pressure shifts offshore early-to-mid next week. In response, winds swing to southwesterly, which will allow temps to climb well into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak cold front may then approach the region on Thursday ahead of the next potential chances for rain late in the week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 645 PM Friday...

Key Messages...

- IFR/MVFR conditions likely on Saturday

A weak cold front will push south through ENC between 03z and 09z tonight, with an accompanying northeasterly wind shift. Strong, gusty winds are not anticipated with this wind shift. Low pressure will then track east along this front Saturday into Saturday night, bringing widespread -RA and sub VFR conditions. A period of IFR, or lower, CIGs appears possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The TAFs do not yet show prevailing IFR conditions, but a SCT low cloud layer has been added to show when the potential exists. This system is expected to produce all liquid precipitation.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions are expected to continue into Saturday night. All precip should be offshore by sunrise Sunday but low clouds could persist into the morning hours. High pressure will return early next week with pred VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

As of 2 PM Fri...

Key Messages...

- SCA continues for the coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet through early this afternoon

- Low pressure moving along the coast Saturday/Sunday will bring another round of gusty winds and elevated seas

Latest obs show WSW-W winds 10-20 kt and mainly 2-4 ft, though higher 4-6 ft across the outer central waters. SCA continues for the central waters through early this afternoon with winds and seas grad diminishing. A cold front will push through the waters tonight, with winds becoming NE 10-20 kt. Low pressure will develop along the front late Sat, before pushing offshore Sunday. NE winds will strengthen late Sat, peaking Sat night at 15-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt. Issued SCA for the northern/southern waters, Pamlico Sound and Neuse Rvr. Will be close for the northern sounds, so will let later shifts re-evaulate. SCA will also be needed for central waters when current ends. As the low strengthens while pulling farther offshore, there is a chance for Gale conditions to develop across the coastal waters, mainly between Capes Lookout and Hatteras Saturday night. Seas will peak at 4-8 ft, subsiding to 4-6 ft Sun.

High pressure then builds back in late Sunday as winds shift to northwesterly and conditions begin to gradually improve. Winds will then gradually shift to southwesterly Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure shifts offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 3 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150-156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154.