textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation disco updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably dry and temperature airmass (perhaps a couple degrees below normal) will be ushered in behind this morning's cold front as it pushes further offshore. In the near term, low stratus will continue to plague eastern NC as moisture remains pooled under the frontal inversion. Stronger surge of dry air, combined with mixing after daybreak, should usher in sunny skies. The high will become the dominant weather feature for the weekend and much of next week. Cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s prevail today and tomorrow before a slight warm-up next week into the low 70s, although humidity will remain low. We will have to watch for the risk of some frost over the upcoming nights, particularly tonight and Mon night as lows dip towards the upper 30s and skies remain clear and winds light. Will defer to day shift to determine whether advisories are needed.

Beyond mid-week most guidance depicts an increasingly unsettled pattern as complex mid-level low deepens over the eastern CONUS. There is at least some signal for a developing low off our coast beyond Wednesday, although its evolution and timing remain highly uncertain.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 6 hours and high through 00z Sunday.

Cold front is just about completely offshore, but the drier air is lagging behind a few hours. TAF sites likely to bounce around flight cats as pockets of IFR fog and/or stratus ~FL002-FL008 drifting lazily behind the front slowly mixes with leftover areas of subsidence. Push of drier air spills over ENC in the early morning hours, starting the typical post frontal clearing. Only some cirri to contend with SAT as high pressure takes control with NW winds up to 10 kt.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected much drier airmass remains over the region.

MARINE

Cold front is making its way across area waters this hour with winds quickly turning northwesterly and increasing to 10-20 kt at times. A few infrequent gusts to 25 kt are possible with a secondary surge of NW winds later this morning, especially north of Cape Hatteras, but this is not expected to be prominent enough to warrant SCA headlines. Seas will persist at around 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore.

Behind the front, high pressure will build in with weakening winds and therefore slowly subsiding seas.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): High builds in this weekend into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies rain-free. Despite the decrease in winds, elevated seas may linger through the weekend for 20-60nm zones at around 4-6 feet, and an isolated 6 foot wave is possible just within 20nm primarily for waters in Raleigh Bay.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.