textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Shower chances have diminished some for Monday.

Thunder chances are minimal Wednesday and beyond.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of unsettled weather returns early through mid next week.

2) Increased marine impacts mid through late week as high waves and potentially strong winds impact the OBX and adjacent waters and sounds.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Deep layer nerly flow cont this morning for ENC. High pres remains in control today with mainly dry weather continuing. May see a few iso showers on the sea/sound breezes just inland from the coast as some low/mid level moisture remains, but upper forcing is negligible and no impacts are expected. Next appreciable chance of rain arrives Mon and Tue as yet another frontal boundary pushes southward. For Mon, the rain chances are confined to mainly interior zones as the front has trended slower and later in the day. Tue appears the best chance for widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms as PW's surge to aoa 2" and frontal boundary is draped acrs ENC, and thus pops raised to 60-70%.

Key Message 2...By mid week, strong high pressure system becomes anchored acrs New England and ern Canada, while at the same time broad low pres develops off the Mid Atlantic coast, tightening the pressure gradient along the mid- atlantic and northeast. This setup will usher in stronger NE winds into coastal ENC. Exact timing, placement, and strength of the low will dictate wind speeds and impacts to coastal ENC. 20/00Z ECM cont to trend stronger with gradient winds and would suggest widespread gales for the coast, though still a wide spread in ensemble guidance from both ECM and AIFS, so details yet to be ironed out. Despite the wind uncertainty, what is certain is that a long fetch of tightened nerly gradient winds offshore will bring high wave energy towards vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks. It is too soon to determine specifics at this point and trends will have to be monitored in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR mainly SKC. Probs for FG/BR at 20% or less in the overnight to early morning hours. Today cont to be dry with light winds as the sea breeze pinned to the coast as the cold front still sits to our south.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): Fog potential exists Sunday night into Monday morning. Another cold front drops in Mon and Tue with a return to unsettled weather and rain chances. This and the potential cold air damming pattern develops next week with a risk of prolonged sub- VFR conditions and breezy nnerly winds esp Wed into the end of the week.

MARINE

As NE winds cont to decrease this afternoon, seas will generally be 2-4 ft, though some 5 ft sets remain across the offshore waters of the OBX from Ocracoke to Oregon Inlet. Winds veer serly late today as high pres moves offshore, then swrly later tonight ahead of next frontal boundary, but remain only in the 5-10 kt range.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): Winds remain in the 5-15 kt range Mon into Tue with seas 2-4 ft. NE Winds and seas begin to build Tuesday PM and esp Wed as pressure gradient tightens as we are sandwiched between a strong high to our north and a non- tropical low developing well offshore. There is the potential for nerly gales by Wed though still lots of uncertainty on how close and strong the offshore low pres becomes. What is more certain is a long duration of dangerous seas of 8-10+ ft developing mid week and lasting through much of the rest of the week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.