textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances have decreased a bit this weekend.

There is a chance of scattered severe thunderstorms on Monday along with periods of heavy rain.

Extended the SCA for the central waters through 6 AM and the southern waters through 2 AM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain exits this evening, with dry weather expected Friday.

2) Pops have decreased a bit for the weekend, as it appears the bulk of showers or storms will remain mostly to the south of Eastern NC.

3) A strong cold front will move through on Monday. Depending on the time of day it moves through, scattered severe thunderstorms and some heavy rain may accompany the frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers through this afternoon is keeping the thunderstorm threat at bay, and little to no chance of severe storms are expected through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, before the rain ends and pushes offshore.

Surface high pressure will build in tomorrow leading to a mild, mostly dry day with MaxTs in the low 70s (60s OBX). The high shifts offshore FRI night with seasonably cool overnight lows continuing in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Latest 07/12Z model suite has trended drier for the weekend, as several low amplitude and weakly sheared shortwaves sweep across the Mid Atlantic. GOM is cutoff from moisture, and thus precip looks to be much more spotty in nature. Have trended pops down to no higher than 30-50%, but these Pops have room to go even lower if the trend holds.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Decent agreement on next stronger shortwave and attendant cold front moving through the region on Monday. This system will have decently strong dynamics and potentially steeper lapse rates. Depending on diurnal timing, a severe thunderstorm threat is possible with this system, with the main threats appearing to be severe wind gusts and large hail, along with heavy downpours.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The primary aviation challenge overnight will be the potential for IFR conditions and whether or not BR/FG can develop. Presently, a mid-level cloud layer continues to reside over much of ENC. Mid- level drying is expected to commence soon, which should lead to an erosion of the mid-level clouds. This will probably allow for some breaks in the clouds, which then favors low stratus/fog development thanks to a residually moist low- level airmass and light winds. We're already seeing evidence of this upstream across central NC. Through the overnight hours, I hit the IFR potential a bit harder, but used TEMPOs to message when the greatest risk appears to be. Stay tuned for amendments through the night.

VFR conditions should quickly return during the day Friday as high pressure moves overhead. The presence of the high will be short- lived as it quickly moves offshore by Friday night. Light southerly flow and weak lift may support low stratus or BR/FG development once again.

Outlook: On Saturday, a warm front is forecast to lift north through the area in the morning, and may be accompanied by isolated SHRA and TSRA. In the wake of this warm front, weak to modest instability and increasing moisture may allow for a continued risk of isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA through the weekend. A greater TSRA risk may develop with a frontal boundary on Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any SHRA or TSRA.

MARINE

The cold front is pushing through the southern most waters late this evening. Have see a Nly surge with gusts around 25-30 kt for a few hours behind the front but winds are beginning to diminish across the northern waters. Have seen gusts in the 25-30 kt range in the Pamlico Sound this evening but guidance has winds diminishing in the next hour or two, so will forego issuing a SCA here. Have extended the SCA until 2 AM for the southern waters as front is just pushing to the south and expect the surge to continue a few more hours, and also until 6 AM for the central waters.

Seas build to 5-7ft coastal waters, 7-9ft offshore waters. Some gale force gusts possible for several hours on the offshore waters this evening. Showers and storms will end after around midnight as dry air filters in. Winds slowly diminish through the overnight, with seas subsiding by early Friday as high pres builds in.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): The improvement will be short lived as swrly SCA winds expected on the Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet later Sat through Sat night, with seas building up to 6+ ft. Winds and seas diminish on Sunday, with next fropa expected Monday with SCA conditions possible once again with this front.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ156-158.