textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added some snow chances to NOBX for a progressive snow squall currently in the Hampton Roads area

Extreme Cold Warnings issued for most of Eastern NC. Cold Weather Advisories for the southwest counties.

Wind Advisories expanded to the rest of the Albemarle-Pamlico peninsula.

Freezing Spray Advisories issued for the Albemarle Sound and adjacent waters, and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous cold will move in this morning through tomorrow. Extreme Cold Warnings have been issued for most of ENC for tonight when wind chills will drop to -5 to 5 degrees. Cold Weather Advisories are also up for today for NE NC and US 64 corridor where wind chill values will remain below 15 degrees all day.

2) Progressive snow squall could clip NOBX this morning

MARINE...Storm and Gale Warnings remain in effect from late tonight through Sunday morning as very strong winds (with gusts up to 50 kts) develop behind an Arctic cold front. Freezing Spray Advisories have been issued for the Albemarle Sound and adjacent waters, and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An extended period of extreme cold will begin this morning as an Arctic airmass moves into the Carolinas. Intense winds will develop after sunrise with winds gusting to 45-55 mph along the Outer and Inner Banks, and 35-45 mph elsewhere. These winds will quickly bring in sub-freezing temperatures, and many places, especially across northern NC, will see steady to falling temps through the day. This combination of cold and wind will lead to wind chills of 5-15 degrees across NE NC today, and 15-25 elsewhere. Cold Weather Advisories are up for NE NC and along the US 64 corridor from this morning through this evening.

Temperatures will continue to fall this evening, and with the relentless winter wind, wind chill values will fall below 0 across NE NC, and below 5 degrees for most of the rest of Eastern NC (except for SW of US 70) overnight. Extreme Cold Warnings have been issued for all but the SW counties. Low temps will reach the lower teens, which will be close to record lows..see climate section below for more details.

More of the same expected Sunday, though with less wind, with highs ranging from the upper 20s across NE NC to the mid to upper 30s SW of US 70. Cold Weather Advisory criteria will likely be met for at least the eastern NC coast Sunday night.

The strong northwest winds will bring elevated waters levels on the soundside Hatteras and Ocracoke Island, generally on the order of 1-2 ft with only minor impacts expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of a brief snow squall moving through NOBX between 730-930am this morning, bringing a quick dusting of snow, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and some reduced visibilities. this squall is currently in the Hampton Roads area and moving SE.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the weekend. Winds are currently NW 10-20 kts as a strong Arctic front has moves through the area. Skies are clearing and winds will become increasingly gusty, peaking tomorrow afternoon at 25-35 kt (35-40+ kt along the Outer Banks). These strong NW winds will cause crosswind concerns at EWN Runway 4R/22L and ISO runway through Saturday. Saturday night sustained NW winds decrease to 10-20 knots.

Of note for NOBX including MQI and FFA, a progressive snow squall is moving through Hampton Roads at the moment, capable of clipping NOBX in the next 1-3 hours. Brief drops of visibility are possible with locally moderate snow rates and gusty winds along this line of snow.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR through early next week as high pressure builds in.

MARINE

Strong winds will quickly develop this morning behind an Arctic front, with winds increasing to Storm Force north of Ocracoke Inlet, and strong Gale Force winds expected elsewhere.

Winds will increase to NW 25-35 kts with gusts 40-45 kts quickly this morning. Winds then surge stronger by midmorning to NW 30-40 kts with gusts 45-50 kts through early tonight. Winds then begin subside slowly overnight into tomorrow morning, finally dropping below Gale Force by tomorrow afternoon. Seas will be 6-10 ft later this morning, and then increase to 8-12 ft by this evening through most of tomorrow.

Freezing spray will develop over the colder sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras tonight due to the combination of intense winds and bitterly cold air temperatures. Freezing spray will be most hazardous to vessels across the Albemarle Sound (and adjacent waters including the Alligator River, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds) and the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet due to water temps into the mid to upper 30s, and here a Freezing Spray Advisory has been issued.

Outlook: Winds will continue to improve Monday, though lingering seas will keep Small Craft conditions over the coastal waters through the afternoon. Light NW and then W winds expected through Wednesday night when winds increase out of the NW behind the next cold front.

CLIMATE

Record low temps for 2/8 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15/1947 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 11/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 14/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 15/1977 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 10/1977 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 15/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1970 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15/1970 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12/1934 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 10/1970 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 16/1995 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18/1995 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NCZ029. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ029-044-079-193-195. Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ045>047-081-203. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for NCZ045>047-081. Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday for NCZ045>047-081-203. Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ080-094-194-196-204-205. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ090>092-198-199. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for NCZ196-203>205. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ204- 205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ131-156-230-231. Freezing Spray Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Sunday for AMZ131-150-230-231. Gale Warning until 3 PM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ136-137. Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150. Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ158.