textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal flooding concerns continue to lessen at this time and Coastal Flood Advisory for Carteret County has been dropped with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nuisance flooding remains in some vulnerable areas but the high tide cycles moving forward should exhibit lower water levels as the astronomical tides relax.

2) High pressure remains in place through Friday with light winds and above normal temperatures.

3) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system bringing next chance of rain this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Coastal Flood advisory has been dropped at this time. Nuisance flooding is still possible for mainly Downeast Carteret county through the next several high tide cycles but data from this morning showed significant receding compared to yesterday. Standing water on roadways, and in low lying or poor drainage areas, could have minor impacts for travelers in especially vulnerable areas prone to the tidal flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...As a weak upper level trough exits the eastern seaboard today, it will be replaced by an upper level ridge with high pressure and southerly flow at the surface. This will keep conditions dry but we will see a return of warmer temperatures and higher humidities each day, culminating with some very warm temperatures by the end of the week.

For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees, and forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s for much of ENC, with some 90s possible inland. Persistent southerly flow and increasing low-level moisture should help to keep overnight lows higher as well, and well above the normal lows of around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Precipitation chances return for the weekend as Gulf moisture opens up and a cold front drapes across the southern Appalachians and pushes southeastward. This will squeeze moisture into eastern NC elevating rain chances for the weekend. While thunderstorms will be possible the threat for severe weather is low at this time.

For now, ensemble guidance is showing about a 30-50% chance of exceeding 1" of rain with this system. Any rain will be helpful, especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is currently in moderate to extreme drought.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours.

VFR conditions will prevail today with light winds and no ceilings. This evening will showcase the potential for another night of good radiational cooling conditions.

As moisture increases, guidance appears more favorable for BR/FG compared to this morning. For the 18z TAF issuance showing a lowering through MVFR to IFR by 10-11Z in most places and have included a tempo for 1/4 FG through 13z at all sites although western terminals will be more likely to receive fog than those closer to the coast. Fog should lift back to VFR conditions fairly quickly after sunrise Wednesday.

Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG, a low-impact aviation period is expected through the end of the work week. Precipitation chances increase for the weekend as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday with the potential for more extended periods of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

Current observations showing 2 ft seas prevailing across all waters with 9-10s periods common. Light easterly winds at around 5 kts gusting to 10 kts in most locations. In the wake of an exiting low pressure system, a 5-10kt easterly flow is expected to continue across all waters. Of note, some funneling through the Albemarle Sound may allow a period of 10-15kt winds there. East to southeast flow persists into Wednesday, but will remain light. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-3ft will be common through Wednesday.

Outlook: Good boating conditions are expected through at least Friday. By the weekend, a front will be approaching the area from the NW, and this is expected to lead to a modest increase in south to southwest winds. Increasing moisture plus weak instability may eventually lead to a risk of thunderstorms as well, especially on Sunday. At this time conditions look to remain below small craft advisory levels through the weekend, becoming increasingly more likely on Monday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.