textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have ended the ongoing small crafts across our central waters and have replaced them with new small craft advisories from Oregon Inlet to North Topsail Beach starting tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Brief warming trend today and early Wed ahead of a cold front which will track across the region and stall to the south Wed night, bringing the next chance of rain.

2) High pressure then builds in behind the stalled front. The front lifts back north as a warm front ahead of a low pressure system slated to work from SW to NE across the Southeast later this weekend.

MARINE...Conditions improve this morning before the next set of possible SCA conditions tonight into Wed morning.

Monitoring for potential dense marine fog across portions of our inland waters given the cold water temps and overrunning warm air today.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure remains overhead the Mid-Atlantic this morning but should slide offshore through the day today. This is forecast to allow for SW'rly flow to overspread ENC bringing widespread WAA across the area resulting in much warmer temps as compared to previous days. This will bring one forecast challenge to the area, which is how warm will we get across the OBX today. For now given recent trends think inland areas get into the 60s while the NOBX struggles to get out of the mid to upper 40s and maybe the low to mid 50s across Hatteras Island as the surrounding marine airmass remains relatively cold. Afterwards a cold front will sweep S'wards across ENC on Wed bringing clouds and rain chances to the area. Precip chances increase from N to S through the afternoon before quickly ending overnight Wed. Out ahead of the front, high temps will once again increase into the 60s inland and 40s/50s along the OBX. Only light accumulations expected with light stratiform rain due to less than impressive moisture recovery through the column ahead of frontal passage, less than a tenth of an inch. A weak NE'rly surge follows behind the frontal passage. The front is expected to stall to the south with cool high pressure filling in over the FA, but not nearly as cold as the last few bouts of Arctic air we've had to deal with lately. Late week MaxTs in the low 40s to low 50s with early morning MinTs in the upper 20s inland, mid to upper 30s coast. Forecast remains dry through Fri with high pressure dominating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak low will develop along the stalled boundary in the Southern Plains and track ENE to NEward late-week. Stacked trough cuts across SWern CONUS first half of the weekend, eventually nudging the meandering boundary that had been stalled to the south, northward through the FA late Saturday. Precip chances increase from this point forward as the FA becomes warm sectored with the center of the low progressing near or to the west of ENC Sun night. Have kept likely to categorical PoP's in the forecast for Sunday with even a thunder mention along the immediate coast and OBX south of Oregon Inlet given the setup.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with occasional deck of mid-level clouds currently over the coast expected to shift offshore in the next few hours. Light winds tonight will give way to southwesterly flow tomorrow morning with occasional gusts as high pressure shifts offshore.

Outlook: Guidance suggesting pred VFR expected at the TAF sites through the rest of the week, however warm air advection ramps up could see shallow fog develop Tuesday night, although guidance keeps probs below 10% attm. What may be more likely is sea fog developing across cooler sounds and nearshore waters along the Crystal coast that could affect coastal terminals, i.e. MRH/MQI/FFA from Tuesday afternoon into mid day Wednesday. REFS continues to be the only guidance showing a strong signal for sea fog and will continue to watch guidance for trends, although conceptual pattern would favor its occurrence. A weak cold front moving through the region Wednesday could provide some brief periods of MVFR, though guidance is trending drier with this system. Any sea fog will likely dissipate once the front pushes through the area. Guidance is also trending drier for the Friday system.

MARINE

Surface high pressure system remains overhead this morning but will gradually push offshore later this afternoon. This will allow for light and variable winds this morning to become SW'rly across all our waters at 5 to 10 kts. Leftover 6 ft seas are forecast to quickly end as well this morning ending any leftover SCA's along our coastal waters for now. SW'rly winds begin to increase Tue evening as a cold front begins to approach from the north and west with 15-25 kt SW'rly winds with gusts up to 30 kts noted across the Gulf Stream waters. Elsewhere a strong marine inversion will remain in place given the anomalously cold marine waters across the CWA capping wind gust potential just about everywhere outside of maybe the Pamlico Sound where a few 25 kt wind gusts could be found. As a result SCA's will be hoisted shortly across our coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet starting tonight and remain in place across the Pamlico Sound for now. However, with recent trends not sure if the Pamlico Sound will get to SCA criteria so this SCA may be cancelled in later updates if forecast continues on this trend. Front nears the area by Wed morning allowing for winds to ease and thus ending any leftover SCA threat. This front will then track south and as this occurs winds will shift to a N'rly direction at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts Wed night once again bringing a threat of SCA's across portions of our coastal waters mainly north of Cape Hatteras.

However, the biggest forecast challenge for the day will be the potential for dense seafog this morning into this evening out ahead of the incoming front. Steady SW winds and WAA will stream over cold SSTs. Conceptually this make sense to promote dense seafog at times especially across portions of the inland sounds. But, guidance is still not picking up on this signal. It is good to note, model guidance water temps are currently 10 plus degrees too high so models may struggle to pick up on this signal. To give credence to the lack of model support for seafog have just left 5 mile visibilities and patchy fog in the forecast for now but trends will need to be monitored over the next several hours to see if dense marine fog becomes a threat.

Outlook: NW-N winds over the area gradually ease by the end of the week allowing for whatever leftover SCA's that would be out to expire bringing slightly more benign conditions to our waters. But, a low pressure system is poised to work from SW to NE across the southeast US the latter half of this weekend, veering 10-15kt NE'rly winds Sat to SE'rly 15-25kt Sun. Wind and rain chances further increase through Sun night as low pressure center tracks from SW to NE toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ152-154.