textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few showers dot the area tonight with backdoor cool front sinking south through ENC.

2) Above normal temps and mainly dry conditions forecast through this weekend.

3) Next frontal passage expected on Monday with precip percentages decreasing to around 20% with this update. Rain amounts appear minimal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A shortwave will swing through the Mid Atlantic tonight and push a weak backdoor cool front through ENC. This may trigger some overnight showers tonight, and rain chances remain in the 20-40% range, highest across northern zones where better forcing is located.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures gradually warm through the weekend. Upper level trough that is currently overhead will gradually push offshore with more zonal flow, albeit above normal heights, setting up across the Eastern Seaboard Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions expected this weekend. Sunday and Monday are likely the warmest days, reaching well into the 80s interior zones (70s coast), although uncertainty has increased some on Monday as 20/12z guidance is a bit faster with the frontal passage which may lead to cooler high temps. Fire weather concerns should remain rather low, despite the mainly dry conditions, due to light winds forecast through the weekend with high pressure dominating.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Stronger shortwave and deeper upper troughing track across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Mon bringing a backdoor cold front quickly through the area. Several 20/12Z models are signaling a faster fropa with the front across the southern portions of the FA by 18z Monday. Pops have decreased with this update, as the front is moisture starved and GOM cut off. Instability is negligible due to lack of moisture and faster timing of the front keeping thunder chances low. The main sensible weather with this front will be a rapid increase of northerly winds behind it with temps dropping through the afternoon and into evening.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

An area of mid-level moisture and lift will continue to support mid- level clouds and a narrow band of very light RA overnight. Meanwhile, SCT SHRA and TSRA are ongoing upstream of ENC at this time. The airmass over ENC is very dry per the latest upper air sounding from MHX, but there may be just enough moisture advection and lift to support a low end risk of some of this activity reaching the area in the 08z-13z Saturday timeframe. For now, confidence is less than 30 percent, therefore I've opted not to even add a PROB30 mention. This will be monitored through the night, though, especially if confidence in TSRA were to increase.

During the day Saturday, a weakening cold front is forecast to move through ENC with a WSW to NW wind shift. There may be some cumulus clouds along this front, but it is expected to be a dry frontal passage.

Outlook: BR/MIFG may impact parts of ENC with sub-VFR conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning. After this, the next chance of sub-VFR conditions comes Monday as yet another cold front moves through. A TSRA risk may accompany this front as well, but for now the probability of TSRA impacts is <10%. Gusty north to northeast winds (20-25kt) are expected with this front as well.

MARINE

High pressure over the waters with light and variable winds around 10 kt or less with seas around 3-5 ft, although Diamond Buoy has occasionally reported seas up to 6 ft. High pressure shifts further offshore tonight with swrly gradient tightening as a cold front approaches from the north with winds increasing to 15-25 kt and seas building up to 4-7 ft, highest over the warm Gulf waters and Pamlico Sound. Have issued a short duration SCA tonight through mid day Monday for the Pamlico Sound and waters south of Oregon Inlet where winds will be strongest.

Outlook: Winds then turn swrly on Sunday once again as high pressure weakens over the area. On Monday, SW wind increase with 10-20 kt winds expected, with some 25+ kt possible on the Gulf Stream waters, ahead of approaching cold front. Front passes through Mon afternoon with stout 20-30 kt northerly winds developing in its wake through Mon night into Tue, with seas rapidly building to 6+ ft behind the front later Monday. Some gale force gusts not out of the question, particularly on the Gulf waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156-158.