textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have extended the marine dense fog advisory for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of Ocracoke Inlet. Advisory for Neuse and Bay Rivers will be allowed to expire as scheduled previously (1100est).

KEY MESSAGES

1) Overcast skies with light rain offshore before a weak low pushing out to sea can pull moisture away from the area leading to clearing conditions with warming temps for remainder of weekend.

2) A fast moving shortwave traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing chances of brief light rainfall.

3) Warming temperatures and daily rain chances mid-late week as high pressure sets in to our southeast

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected to last into late this morning. IFR/LIFR conditions in BR/FG may redevelop tonight.

Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer coastal waters Cape to Cape today. Next period of likely widespread SCA conditions SUN night into TUE.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The shortwave aloft begins to push offshore this morning which will aid in the further organization of a weak low to develop and ride the Gulf Stream slowly NEward through the day. This low will act to pull clouds and moisture offshore away from the the area through today and tonight as PWATs drop from near 1" to around 0.5". The introduction of drier air will help keep Sunday PM's cold front passage dry. While some returns on radar are possible, it would likely be in the form of virga. Winds briefly become SWerly ahead of Sunday's front, allowing MaxTs Sunday to get into the low 70s with sunny skies and light winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving shortwave zips across the central plains and mid- Atlantic along a meandering boundary. Precipitation amounts and coverage looks to be low given the muted nature of the shortwave paired with the more northward focus of precip. Some models are showing some mixed precip possible along the NC/VA border with this shortwave, but we should be too warm at the lowest levels for this to occur in our forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...High pressure sits offshore late week allowing for warm south flow to build into the region. Temps could warm up to the 80s inland Friday and Saturday, supported by 850-1000mb thicknesses at 1380-1390m. With the contrast of colder nearshore SSTs and warm land, the sea breeze should develop Friday and Saturday. While there is no upper level support, PWATs around 1" and instability building up to 500-1000 J/kg could allow for clouds and some isolated showers to form along the sea breeze.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Update...Skies have cleared inland quicker than previously forecast bringing VFR back through the remainder of the TAF period.

Previous Disco...Widespread low CIGs continue to impact ENC with predominantly LIFR conditions. However, over the past couple of hours, satellite imagery has shown some slow clearing of the stratus from NE NC southwest through far northwestern sections of ENC. It's unclear how long this will last as low clouds are beginning to fill back in from the east. This primarily impacts KPGV in the near-term as that terminal will be right on the edge of the clearing line. Confidence in the CIG forecast is lowest there. Elsewhere, guidance suggests LIFR CIGs will last for several more hours before dry air begins to win out more decidedly, leading to rising CIGs. VFR conditions are expected by this afternoon. Later this evening and into tonight, good radiational cooling and residual moist low-levels should allow reduced VIS to return in BR/FG. I've introduced sub-VFR conditions after 06z tonight for most terminals to highlight this potential. It should be noted that probabilistic guidance suggests a 40-60% chance of IFR, or lower, VIS tonight.

Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move south through ENC on Sunday with a notable northerly wind shift. A few SHRA or TSRA may accompany this front, although not all guidance show this potential. Behind the front, a weak weather system is forecast to move through the area early next week, and this system should provide the next chance for sub-VFR conditions across ENC.

MARINE

Update...Based on observations from webcams, have extended the marine dense fog advisory for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of Ocracoke Inlet into this afternoon (1300est). This is more than likely longer than it needs to be, but with all models handling the fog very poorly, would rather have to cancel it early than have the VIS 1 NM or less be in place with no headline. Advisory for Neuse and Bay Rivers will be allowed to expire as scheduled previously (1100est) with cams here showing improvement.

NEerly winds 10-15G15-20kt with rain lingering along coastal waters and eastern Pamlico Sound this morning. Seas are also relatively tame at 3-4 feet. Rain should be moving off later this morning as the low pressure works NEward up the Gulf Stream through the day pulling moisture away from the area. Some patchy sea fog possible this morning as moist conditions and lighter winds are sitting over cooler waters. This will especially be the case for waterways near the Crystal Coast (Bogue Sound, Core Sound, Newport River, and the Neuse River). NEerly winds will be near 25 knots over FAR outer waters Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout through much of the day Saturday. Would issue SCA if areal coverage coverage or duration were more sustained, but the 25kt gusts are forecast to bounce in and out of the 20nm zones through the day. With the near small craft winds for outer waters, seas are also expected to rise to 4-6 ft near the Gulf Stream, remaining 2-3 feet closer to the coast. Seas lessen and Nerly winds weaken to be AoB 10kt Sunday before becoming SWerly ahead of the next front crossing area waters Sunday night into Monday morning.

The front moving through Sunday night into Monday morning is expected to bring a quick shift in winds from SW to NE. While the SW component should be light (around 10 knots), the NE component behind the front will be much stronger, gusting greater than 25 knots. EPS probs of gale force gusts from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout are greater than 80%, although GEFS shows a very different story with probs of 10%. With this uncertainty, elected to keep gust magnitudes relatively unchanged, getting up to the low 30 knots range. Confidence in small craft conditions for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound late Sunday through Monday is high, the question is if the inland rivers get there, and if the gale force gust potential cape to cape is realized. NWPS tends to struggle in these northerly flow regimes like what we will see behind the front, so elected to include WNA waves in the forecast for Sunday night and Monday to bring waves up faster. Current forecast has 5-9 ft along coastal waters Monday.

Outlook: High moves offshore late week, allowing for lighter southerly flow to kick in, bringing daily rain chances and warmer temps.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135- 156-158. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ137.