textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will continue push offshore tonight. High pressure will build in tonight through mid week. A low pressure system will then move through the Mid-Atlantic region mid to late week. Another system will impact the area late next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

As of 6 PM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Breezy along the coast this evening with gusts 35 to 45 mph.

- Cold air advection behind today's frontal passage will bring low temperatures in the upper-20s inland overnight

A strong cold front will continue to push offshore this evening, with a strong upper level shortwave moving through the Carolinas as well. NW winds will peak this evening behind the front with gusts 15-25 mph inland and 35-45 along the coast. Winds will gradually weaken through the overnight hours tonight as high pressure begins to build into the area. Much colder overnight with lows falling into the upper 20s inland to mid 30s to 40 deg along the Outer Banks.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/

As of 145 PM Sun...High pressure will continue to build in from the WSW as flow becomes more zonal aloft. Low level thickness values and sunny skies support below normal temps with highs 45-50 deg.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 145 PM Sun...

Key Messages

- Return to cooler temperatures early this coming week with dry conditions

- Low pressure system mid to late this coming week will bring the next chance of rain, with some potential (10-30%) for a wintry mix or light snow as it moves offshore Thursday night

- Another system will impact the region late next weekend

Early this week...High pressure will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions. High temps warming into the upper-50s Tuesday/Wednesday, with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

Mid week into next weekend...The next front is forecast to push offshore, with the potential for multiple weak lows/waves of low pressure to travel along this front mid-week, which may bring the next chances of rain to ENC. There is a building signal that a stronger low pressure system will then move across the region Thursday bringing additional chances for precipitation. Guidance continues to struggle with the strength, timing, and location of the system, but there is potential (10-30%) for a changeover to a wintry mix or snow as the system pulls away from the coast Thursday night, but it is still too early for any discussion on impacts or accumulation potential. High pressure will briefly build over the area late week and the first part of next weekend. Another system is expected to impact the area late next weekend. Temps will remain slightly below climo.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 6 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

- Very gusty NW winds rest of SUN, crosswind concerns for SW-NE RWY

VFR flight cats expected through the TAF period with gusty winds being only concern. NWerly winds 15-20G25-30kt forecast through this evening. This will lead to crosswind issues for RWY5/23 at ISO and OAJ, RWY4/22 at EWN, and somewhat at RWY8/26 at PGV. Winds will decrease to 5-10 knots overnight. SKC in place through MON with significantly lighter NWerly winds becoming SWerly by sunset.

Outlook: Pred VFR flight cats expected through much of the longterm with high pressure in control. Winds become light overnight MON but airmass should be too dry for any fog development. While there is still a lot of uncertainty, a low pressure system Thursday could bring precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.

MARINE

As of 145 PM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Gale force winds will develop late this afternoon and evening as NW winds surge behind a secondary cold front

- SCA conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday, with gale force winds possible Thursday night

Latest obs show N-W winds 15-25 kt and seas 4-7 ft. The cold front will continue to push through the waters early this afternoon and offshore. NW winds will surge to 20-30 kt gusting 25-40 kt behind a secondary cold front, peaking this evening then slowly diminishing late. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound, with SCAs for the rivers and northern sounds. NNW winds 15-20 kt early Mon morning diminishing to 10 kt or less by early afternoon. Seas 3-6 ft early Mon subsiding to 2-4 ft.

Outlook: Marine conditions gradually improve early week as high pressure builds over the region, with sub-SCA conditions expected to return Monday and last until mid week when another low pressure system will bring increased winds and seas. SCA conditions likely to develop Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for gale force winds Thursday night.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ135-150-152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137.