textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions forecast today and Friday bringing high probabilities for major heat risk impacts over much of the area.

2) Low rain chances today, increasing Friday and Saturday as a front moves through. Additional chances for widespread precipitation possible early next week with a frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1..Muggy morning to start our day with temps generally in the 70s and mo clear to partly cloudy skies across the region. Continue to expect partly cloudy skies and hot and humid conditions today and tomorrow as flow generally remains W-SW'rly keeping low level thicknesses around 1430m today and tomorrow. Based off our local climatological study, this is forecast to result in highs in the mid to upper 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast each day with lows in the 70s each night. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices look to get around 105-110F each afternoon. As a result, a Heat Advisory remains in effect today for most of ENC. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed Friday as well once the current one expires unless the forecast changes substantially. There is a low end chance for some extreme heat warning criteria being met mainly in our SW'rn zones on Fri, but latest NBM/HREF probs of seeing heat indices above 110F on Fri remain low (generally less than 20%) so not planning on upgrading headlines for now for Fri. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated.

A front impacts the region Fri evening into Sat resulting in cooler temperatures this weekend. Temps may briefly warm up once again early next week as well bringing yet another threat of heat advisory conditions to ENC next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low precip chances continue today, with one or two isolated showers/tstms possible along the sea breeze. Across the upper levels, N'rn stream Jet remains active and generally to the north of the Carolinas with several troughs transiting across it over the next several days. Troughing will dig S across the Mid-Atlantic on Fri before pushing offshore with a second trough then tracking across the region early next week. At the mid levels, weak shortwave will transit along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Gulf States today, but with dry air in place and subsidence aloft not expecting much in the way of precip today outside of the seabreeze. Because of this have only kept SChc PoPs along the sea breeze this afternoon. An approaching complex of showers/tstms is forecast to near our northern zones this evening. However, model trends suggest the best energy remains to our north, and as a result we may avoid all of the activity tonight. However, given low predictability, elected to keep Schc PoPs across the N'rn counties for tonight.

As mentioned above, a stronger trough is progged to push across the Mid-Atlantic Fri with the attendant surface cold front pushing into the area Fri evening into Sat bringing the best chances for showers and storms across ENC. Some of these storms on Fri into Fri night could become strong to severe in nature as they near the area given ample instability. With PWATs also forecast to get above 2" on Fri as well, frequent lightning, torrential rain, and gusty winds will be possible in the strongest storms. SPC currently has the far western coastal Plain in a marginal risk for severe weather (level 1/5) for gusty winds, while WPC has the entire area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall (level 1/4) given low end flash flooding risk. Precip becomes more isolated in nature by Sat afternoon as the front pushes offshore.

High pressure briefly builds into the area Sat/Sun bringing bringing a drier airmass and minimal chances for storms. However, a second frontal boundary looks to approach early next week which could once again bring increased chances for showers and storms to ENC.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pred VFR conditions persist across ENC this morning with just some high clouds and light winds ongoing. Expect VFR conditions and light winds to continue through much if not all of the period with just some diurnal Cu this afternoon. We will also have a low end chance for some isolated showers along the seabreeze this afternoon. Chances are low enough to preclude a mention in the TAFs either way. As we get into tonight, the first forecast challenge arises. While approaching showers and storms from the north and west will be weakening as they near ENC this evening, this activity could bring some sub-VFR conditions especially across the northern tier. Have kept any mention out of the TAF sites as activity should stay away from locations from PGV south. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions through tonight with just a low end chance at some low stratus early Fri morning.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): A cold front is progged to push through the area late Friday/Friday night that will bring the best chances for prolonged sub-VFR conditions. VFR conditions return Sat evening/Sun as high pressure briefly builds into the area. However, yet another potential round of sub-VFR conditions are possible Mon/Tue with the passage of yet another front.

MARINE

No real changes to the marine forecast into next week. Benign boating conditions are expected through at least Fri morning across ENC. W-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, will increase this afternoon to around 10-20 kt and become S-SW as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and an offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 1-3 ft into Fri. As we get into Fri afternoon and evening, an approaching cold front will strengthen the gradient and while not explicitly stated, bring the potential for stronger and near SCA force wind gusts and 3-5 ft seas to our waters. Will have to monitor trends in case SCA's are needed in the coming days. A return to more benign boating conditions are then forecast Sat night into Sun as high pressure ridging builds into the area. Yet another front nears the area Sun night into Mon bringing yet another chance at SCA conditions.

A cold front is progged to push across the waters late Friday/Friday night bringing the best chance to see showers and thunderstorms with a second front bringing yet another chance at showers and storms early next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ044-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...None.