textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure to our south will build offshore through Sunday in advance of a dry cold front. Cooler high pressure builds back in from the northwest early this week, with another quick moving front pushing through the area by mid-week. Behind this system, high pressure builds in from the north through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 1 AM Saturday...Mid-level cloud cover has overspread ENC through as of early Saturday morning amidst a weak, low-level warm air advection regime. This cloud cover has brought mostly cloud to overcast skies that have largely limited radiational cooling across the area so far this evening. While some clearing may occur over the next few hours, especially inland, lows are likely to remain on a touch warmer than previously forecast, with temperatures likely dropping to only the mid-40s.

Meanwhile, a developing backdoor cold front will drop southward along the mid-Atlantic coastline through this morning. While this front will remain to the north, it will cause the pressure gradient to briefly tighten, with winds strengthening for a few hours this morning before leveling off through the afternoon. Highs will reach the low-70s under partly cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/

As of 1 AM Saturday...A stronger area of low pressure will then track across southern Canada through Sunday, bringing strengthening southwesterly winds to the area before a dry cold front pushes through ENC late Sunday. Temperatures will remain above normal on Sunday prior to this cold frontal passage, with highs in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1 AM Saturday...

Dry conditions will continue Monday and Tuesday, with high pressure building in behind Sunday's cold frontal passage. Highs are forecast to be near 60 Monday, rising to the low-to-mid 60s Tuesday, with lows in the mid-to-upper 30s (mid-to-upper 40s beaches).

The next front will impact the area Tuesday night, bringing only slight chance of rain. Dry high pressure then builds back into the region, bringing pleasant weather Wednesday-Friday, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

A stronger frontal system may impact the area late week into early next weekend, though some timing differences still remain this far out.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 630 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.

- LLWS early this morning and again tonight.

Sfc high pressure slides south of the area through today with a dry cold front approaching the area tonight. Expect VFR conditions to prevail with periods of mid and high clouds across rtes at times, mainly above 8k ft. A mid level shortwave pushing across the Mid-Atlantic early this morning will bring a strengthening low level jet and LLWS likely until 13z this morning. A stronger mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front approach the area tonight with a 50 kt low level jet developing during the evening and persisting through the rest of the overnight bringing another night of LLWS concerns.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to continue through Wednesday. A dry cold front will push across rtes Sunday with high pressure building in Monday into Tuesday. Another cold front with limited moisture is progged to approach the area Tuesday night and cross rtes on Wednesday. Cigs with both systems expected to remain AOA 4k ft.

MARINE

As of 1 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Multiple periods of hazardous marine conditions expected this weekend

1.) Small Craft conditions expected to develop across the coastal waters early Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon as SW winds increase to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Occasional gusts to 25 kts will also be possible across the Pamlico Sound.

2.) Gale conditions develop across the central and southern coastal waters Saturday night through most of Sunday with strong Small Craft conditions developing elsewhere. SCA conditions are expected to persist into Sunday night.

As of 1 AM Saturday, winds across area waters are generally 10-15 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts. A developing backdoor cold front to the north will sag southward off the Mid-Atlantic coast over the next few hours, causing the pressure gradient across the region to tighten slightly. This will lead to an uptick from north to south in west-southwesterly winds starting early Saturday morning and lasting through the late morning. Winds will increase to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts over the coastal waters. Winds will be slightly weaker over the sounds and inland rivers, largely remaining below SCA criteria. Occasional gusts to 25 kts will be possible for portions of the Pamlico Sound, however.

Winds briefly relax this afternoon and into the early evening before the pressure gradient again tightens in response to an area of low pressure working its way eastward across southern Canada. Winds will increase rapidly, this time from south to north, with SCA to Gale conditions possible for all waters except the Neuse/Bay/Pamlico/Pungo Rivers. Winds will peak Saturday night at 25-30 kts with gusts of 30-40 kts for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet (winds 20-25 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts for the northern coastal waters, Alligator River, and Pamlico/Ablemarle/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds).

A dry cold front then pushes through the area Sunday afternoon/evening, bringing a shift in wind direction from southwesterly to northwesterly. This front will bring another surge in winds that will allow SCA conditions to linger through Sunday night. Winds then drop to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts on Monday as high pressure begins to build into the area again.

Seas of 2-4 ft will increase to 3-5 ft through this morning. Seas then remain steady through the day before increasing to 6-10 ft tomorrow night, and remaining at this strength through Sunday morning. Seas begin to subside Sunday afternoon, becoming 2-5 ft by late Monday morning.

Outlook: SW winds return late Tuesday before another dry cold front moves through the waters Wednesday, bringing another shift to northerly winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ152- 154. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ156-158.