textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High shifts offshore today and a weak warm front will lift through the area tonight. High pressure then remains anchored offshore through the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. The next cold front then impacts the region late this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

As of 945 PM Wednesday...Warm front, per latest analysis, has now lifted north across the area with widespread southeasterly flow across eastern NC this hour and plenty of low clouds in well saturated low levels. Low clouds and steady southerly winds will keep conditoins very mild tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s, and may even see some patchy drizzle in the early morning. Prior forecast is in good shape and no changes were offered this update.

SHORT TERM /2 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/

As of 3 PM Wed...High pressure centered off the southeast coast will strengthen and increase heights over ENC. Near-record highs in the mid- to upper-80s across the coastal plain and mid- to upper-70s across the Outer Banks are expected (see Climate Section below). Light isolated showers are possible across the area, but a lack of forcing should keep accumulations to a few hundreths at best.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 320 AM Wed...

Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on Thursday and Friday

Thursday night through Sunday...No real change to the forecast through Sunday as upper ridging remains in place across the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Upper flow becomes amplified this weekend as well as a deepening positively tilted upper trough moves into the Plains. This trough then tracks E'wards and will eventually become centered over the Eastern Seaboard early next week. Broad upper trough then remains over the Eastern Seaboard through much of next week. High pressure ridging in the mid levels and at the surface becomes entrenched offshore and moves little into this weekend. This will continue to promote SW'rly flow at the mid levels and at the surface bringing a steady WAA regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar well above normal Thurs through Sun with highs climbing well into the 80s inland (potentially reaching the low 90s on Fri, Sat, and Sun) and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. This is rather anomalous for the time of year with ECMWF EFI values close to the 90th+ percentile for max temps this weekend and NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at 1-2 SD above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above average, with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to-upper 60s Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show temps to near record Highs for early April (see "Climate Section" for more information). While we will likely remain mo dry across ENC through the end of the workweek a weak mid level shortwave that will be tracking along the northern periphery of the mid level ridging may bring some isolated showers to portions of ENC on Thurs, mainly along the OBX and offshore waters.

A backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border Friday night and then lifts N'wards as a warm front on Sat. This front may bring a few light showers and a rumble of thunder or two to the region, mainly north of Hwy 264 which is where I have kept SChc to Chc PoPs in place. We dry out Sat into Sun as continued WAA remains in place out ahead of an approaching cold front.

Monday through midweek next week... Next significant cold front then approaches and tracks across the region Sunday night into Monday as strengthening surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance has come into better agreement over the last few days and thus confidence in when the best chances to see rain have increased as well. Given the latest trends, started to bring shower and isolated thunderstorm activity into the Coastal Plain Sunday afternoon and evening with this activity spreading E'wards overnight towards the coast. Highest chances to see rain looks to be late overnight Sun into Mon morning and have thus increased PoP's to likely during this timeframe. Cold front pushes offshore by Mon evening with a much cooler and drier airmass filtering in behind this front as high pressure builds in from the north and west on Tue. Temps knock down closer to just below normal by Tue and remain that way through midweek.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

SHORT TERM /through 00z Fri/... As of 720 PM Wed...MVFR conditions are overspreading all of eastern NC tonight as a warm front gradually lifts across the region overnight. Increasing low- level moisture is expected as winds turn southerly behind the front, and cigs will continue to lower to IFR by midnight especially across the coastal plain. Some spotty showers and drizzle remain possible overnight but confidence and coverage is too low to warrant any explicit mention in the TAFs.

Low-level mixing kicks back in shortly after sunrise tomorrow, aiding in lifting cigs back to MVFR by 12-13z and eventually scattering out to VFR around midday. Gusty southwesterly winds anticipated tomorrow afternoon, reaching up to 20 kt at times especially for PGV and ISO.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... No real changes for the long term forecast as we expect primarily VFR conditions with steady SW'rly winds across ENC through the rest of the period as high pressure builds into the area. Next significant frontal system expected to impact ENC Sun night into Mon.

MARINE

SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/... As of 3:30 PM Wednesday...A warm front lifting north across the area will transition this afternoon's easterly flow to southerly by tomorrow morning and southwesterly by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally be 15-20 kt through the period. Seas will be 4-5 ft, although there is potential for a brief period of 6 footers across the outer southern waters this evening. Given the short duration and low confidence in these conditions, a SCA has not been issued at this time.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... High pressure will remain centered off the coast through the period gradually pushing further offshore by Sun with the approach of a cold front. We start the period out with 10-15 kt S'rly winds and 3-5 ft ft seas across our waters. Winds are then forecast to increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and into Friday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens between high pressure offshore and an approaching front. This front stalls just to the north of our waters allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to ease Fri night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through Sat as well with just a SChc for some showers and thunderstorms Fri night as the front nears the area. As we get into Sun a strong cold front then approaches from the west, once again tightening the pressure gradient and increasing S-SW'rly winds to 20- 25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts across just about all the waters. Seas also increase up to 4-6 ft on Sun as well bringing a return to at least SCA conditions to our waters.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for Thursday 04/03

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 81/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1967 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for Friday 04/04

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.