textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will settle over the Carolinas through today before shifting offshore tonight. A moisture-starved cold front will cross the region Sunday afternoon, followed by a brief surge of cold air to start the upcoming week. A second cold front moves through Tuesday with high pressure building in behind it. A warming trend is expected Wednesday onwards as the high pressure shifts offshore.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 235 PM Saturday...

- Shallow fog potential tonight, otherwise no hazardous weather expected

Very pleasant conditions across eastern NC this afternoon under zonal flow and transient but strong high pressure is in control at the surface. Skies will hold at clear to mostly sunny this afternoon with highs topping off in the mid 50s inland, while cool onshore flow keeps temps in the 40s to low 50s along the Outer Banks.

Tonight, the high moves offshore allowing for a return of southwest flow and weak WAA. Night should remain calm and clear, and with increasing dew points in return flow could favor some shallow fog formation especially south of Highway 70. Increasing Tds will put a floor on low temp potential, but it will still be quite cool with temps bottoming out in the mid to upper 30s inland, low 40s OBX.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/

As of 240 PM Saturday...

- No hazardous weather expected on Sunday

Tail-end of a quick hitting cold front, associated with highly progressive low across eastern Canada will cross the Carolinas tomorrow morning. With negligible moisture ahead of it, we will see little more than an increase in clouds and a wind shift while stronger high pressure builds in behind it. Winds will be felt more across the Outer Banks, especially after sunset as winds pick up to 15-20 mph with higher gusts.

Southwest flow will encourage temps higher tomorrow with the mercury likely reaching the low 60s inland and mid to upper 50s OBX.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 130 AM Saturday... Key Messages:

- Dry cold front Sunday with a brief cool-down Monday.

- Second cold front Tuesday brings 20-30% chance of light rain

- Warming trend mid/late week

Sunday through Monday: A quick hitting moisture-starved cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday. Pre-frontal southerly flow will allow temperatures to rebound nicely; highs should reach the low 60s inland, 50s along the coast. The front is expected to cross the area Sunday afternoon/evening. Moisture confined to a shallow layer means we are carrying a dry forecast. Behind the front, a cold airmass will build in. Monday morning lows will be in the upper 20s inland, 30s for beaches with a light northerly wind while highs Monday will struggle to reach 50. Monday night looks like a prime radiational cooling night with calm winds and mostly clear skies (lows upper 20s inland, near 40 for beaches)

Tuesday through Friday: Another cold front comes through late Tuesday. This front may have a bit more moisture to work with, and guidance has trended up slightly regarding the chance of showers. Rainfall amounts look light (<0.10"). However, This front doesn't look to have as much cold air behind it. Plus, the flow looks to flip back to southerly fairly quickly in its wake. By Thursday (Christmas Day), the eastern Carolinas will be firmly entrenched in south-to-southwest flow. Ensemble guidance is in high agreement of temperatures above seasonal normals. Highs for Christmas Day are currently projected to reach the mid to upper 60s, with some spots possibly hitting 70. Christmas day, a mid-level high over the gulf states will have a shortwave riding the northern extent of it. There may be enough moisture for some light rain to impact the northern portion of the forecast area. This is a relatively new development in fcst models, with the NBM with its typical lagging bias not representative. Put in Schc PoPs for the Albemarle Sound vicinity to cover the chance of brief period of light rain Christmas day with the ridge rider. For most however, the holiday, and Friday, looks to be dry and warm.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 1230 PM Sat...

Key Messages

- VFR conditions expected through this evening

- Sub VFR VIS/CIG possible late tonight (20-40% chance)

High pressure then slides offshore tonight with a light southerly flow developing. A subtle increase in low-level moisture may lead to a sct/bkn IFR deck for KOAJ and KEWN and some patchy fog due to BR/FR. Attm, highlighted the threat for this in a sct IFR deck and MIFR for these sites. KPGV and KISO have a better chance of remaining VFR.

Sunday...Dry cold front sweeps through with a SW to NW wind shift occurring during the afternoon hours. Strong winds are not expected with this wind shift.

Monday...VFR cont with high pres in control and light winds.

Mon night through Tue night...The next slight opportunity for sub VFR conditions as the next cold front moves through with better moisture. No higher than a 20% chc of rain though as this front appears to move through on the dry side.

MARINE

As of 250 PM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Next period of SCA likely Sunday night into Monday with passing front

- Multiple weak frontal passages next week pose short-lived and marginal SCA risks

Regional observations across area waters show northeast winds of 10-15 kt area wide as high pressure asserts control over the region behind yesterday's passing cold front. A brief uptick in winds over the outer waters has briefly boosted seas to 5 to occasionally 6 feet, although this is confined to the Gulf Stream and will last only an hour or two longer.

Benign boating conditions forecast tomorrow as a second cold front crosses the waters in the late morning and afternoon, veering winds northwesterly. Main surge of wind will be delayed until overnight Sunday with stronger CAA surge, and this will be the target for future SCA headlines, likely for all offshore waters and Pamlico Sound at a minimum.

Outlook: A series of cold fronts will move through the ENC waters through Tuesday, each one with a bump up in winds and seas. After Sunday into Monday, next window for SCA will be Tuesday extending into Wednesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.