textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

An area of low pressure will strengthen along a stalled front tonight before moving further offshore Sunday. High pressure then builds back in by early next week. A front will move through mid week with another front late next week and weekend.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 155 PM Sat...Latest analysis shows front stalled to the south with areas of low pressure developing along it, as shortwave moves through the Carolinas. Low pressure will continue to strengthen along the stalled front tonight before pushing offshore late tonight and Sunday. Increasing low-to-mid level frontogenesis and WAA has lead to widespread light rain overspreading the area this afternoon, heaviest along the southern coast and offshore waters. MRMS estimates rainfall amts a few hundredths to up to 0.25" so far. Rain chances will gradually taper off from west to east this evening and the first part of tonight. With strengthening northeasterly winds on the backside of the low, wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected along the OBX early tonight before the low shifts farther offshore. High pressure building into the region will then bring clearing skies through the rest of the overnight hours, with lows falling to near/just below freezing across much of ENC and a few deg warmer for the Outer Banks.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/

As of 155 PM Sat...High pressure will build in from the west as sfc low offshore continues to push further eastward. Low level thickness values, northerly flow and clearing skies will keep temps below normal, with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 155 PM Sat...

Monday...High pressure will continue to build in, keeping temps near climo...with highs generally in the 50s.

Tuesday/Wednesday...High pressure shifts offshore early-to-mid next week. In response, winds will continue to veer becoming southwesterly, which will allow temps to climb well into the 60s Tuesday/Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...A weak cold front may approach and stall out near ENC late weak as a shortwave trough swings quickly across the mid-Atlantic Wed night and Thu. Another frontal system may then swing through the region next weekend. Will keep chance pops Fri into Sat.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 615 PM Saturday...

Key Messages

- MVFR/IFR conditions to continue for several more hours, especially from KOAJ to KEWN

- VFR conditions expected Sunday

A coastal low will continue to strengthen south of ENC this evening as it pulls away from the coast. To the NW of the low, widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are ongoing, especially across the southern half of ENC. Conditions are expected to deteriorate a bit further than current conditions, with IFR conditions expected from KOAJ to KEWN (where it hasn't already occurred). The risk of MVFR/IFR conditions now appears lower from KISO to KPGV, and the 00z TAFs will reflect this expectation. CIGs are expected to steadily rise late tonight, with predominantly VFR conditions expected by sunrise Sunday. VFR conditions then continue into Sunday afternoon. Of note, while much drier air will be filtering in later tonight, the recent rainfall and clearing skies may allow a low risk of BR to develop. For now, this will not be included in the TAFs due to the low probability.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions are expected over the next few days as high pressure builds in.

MARINE

As of 615 PM Sat...

Key Messages...

- Low pressure moving along the coast will bring gusty winds and elevated seas through Sunday

Winds have increased faster than forecast, and seas are consequently responding faster as well. The forecast has been updated to reflect these trends. This suggests winds over the warmest coastal waters may top out a bit higher.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft. Low pressure will continue to strengthen along a stalled front to the south this evening, moving along the NC coast, before pushing offshore Sunday. NE winds will strengthen in response to the deepening low, peaking tonight at 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Occasional gusts to 35 kts will be possible across the Gulf Stream waters, mainly between Capes Lookout and Hatteras, for a brief period early tonight. SCAs continue for the coastal waters, Pamlico Sound and Neuse Rvr. Still looks too marginal for the northern sounds, though could see occasional gusts to 25 kt this evening when winds peak.

High pressure then builds back in late Sunday as winds shift to northwesterly and conditions begin to gradually improve. Winds will then gradually shift to southwesterly Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure shifts offshore. A brief period of SCA winds will be possible across the outer central waters Tue night and Wed. A front will move through Wed night and Thu, with winds becoming N-NE, returning to SSW Fri and Sat.

Seas will peak at 4-9 ft tonight, subsiding to 4-6 ft Sun. Expect seas 2-3 ft Mon and Tue, building to 3-5 ft Wed.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154.