textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued SCA for the nearshore central waters late Wed into Fri morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will move through Thursday, bringing gusty winds and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Isolated storms may become strong to severe.

2) High pressure will build in Friday and bring a brief round of dry conditions.

3) Another front will move through early next week, with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the Midwest Thursday, becoming neutral to negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday night. At the surface, a cold front will move into ENC late Thursday afternoon/early evening and push offshore by Thursday night.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day, and there's a low but non-zero chance for some storms to be strong to marginally severe. Forcing will be lacking in the morning, and depending on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the evening front, destabilization may be dampened. While ample bulk shear will be present throughout the day, and the low pressure that is expected to form along the front could produce an area of enhanced lift, chances for severe storms remain low at this time (< 10%). Machine learning probs continue to trend down with each subsequent run. Current QPF ranges from 0.25-1" with highest totals west of Highway 17. In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring gusty SW winds with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and 25-35 mph along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Surface high pressure will briefly build in on Friday. This should help keep most of the precipitation associated with the low along the offshore front south of our area, but isolated light showers along the immediate coast can't be ruled out Friday night as the high moves offshore. As the aforementioned offshore low moves northeast off the coast of the Carolinas on Saturday coupled with shortwave energy, sct showers will be possible with greatest chances along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Another frontal system and wave of low pressure will approach the area late weekend into early next week, bringing increased chances for showers and storms Sunday night and Monday. Right now it looks like another potential high shear/low CAPE setup, so will continue to monitor the potential for stronger storms.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mainly high clouds through the overnight, though coastal sections will see periods of lower clouds with bases around 3-4k ft. Increasing mid and high clouds tomorrow with sct diurnal CU with bases around 5-6k ft during the afternoon. Cannot rule out an isolated shower near the coast tomorrow but should remain east of the TAF sites. SW winds gusting as high as 20-25 kt will diminish through mid evening with loss of diurnal heating, then will see gusts around 20-25 kt redevelop Wednesday mid morning through the afternoon.

Outlook: Our next notable chance at sub-VFR conditions looks to be Wednesday night/Thursday with the approach of a low pressure system and its associated fronts. This is forecast to bring showers and thunderstorms to ENC and thus potential for reduced ceilings and visibilities.

MARINE

Latest obs show SSW winds at 10-15 kt and seas at 2-3 ft. Winds will increase to 10-20 kt late this afternoon and evening with seas building to 2-4 ft. A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible, but again looks too marginal for SCA at this time. Moderate to gusty SSW winds will continue Wed and Wed night ahead of an approaching cold front. Issued SCA for the central waters beginning Wed afternoon. Remaining coastal waters and sounds may be close to freq 25 kt gusts, but think that will hold off until Wed night.

Outlook: SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Wednesday night into Thu. Winds will veer to the NW Thursday night behind the front with seas peaking at 5-8 ft. Winds will decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt by Friday morning with good boating conditions returning by the afternoon.

Thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusts, will be possible on Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.