textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost Advisory has been issued for several inland counties.

SCAs continue for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures tonight with areas of frost expected inland

2) Another frontal system to impact ENC late-week

Marine: Elevated winds and seas expected to last into this evening.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure centered over the area will lead to light winds and decent radiational cooling conditions tonight. How widespread the clouds are tonight will likely factor into how cold it gets. Looking at satellite imagery, thicker high clouds over the area this afternoon will move out with mainly clear skies this evening, however guidance showing high clouds moving back in after midnight, which could limit radiational cooling. In light of this, and the lower than normal low-level thicknesses, continued to forecast temps a couple of degrees below blended guidance, especially across the typically colder inland locations. This should support some areas dropping into the mid 30s, with patchy to areas of frost possible. Have issued a Frost Advisory for many of the inland zone.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next cold front to impact ENC is slated for late Friday or Friday night. Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to quickly rebound back above normal, especially Thursday and Friday. Increased moisture advection along the southward- advancing frontal zone looks to support the next appreciable chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Instability continues to look meager, though, and severe thunderstorms are not anticipated at this time. Behind this front, another surge of northerly winds is expected, along with cooler, below normal temperatures returning.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. NE wind gusts will ease this evening, becoming light overnight. A weak coastal trough may allow SCT to BKN low clouds to advect inland off the Atlantic at times Wednesday, with bases likely remaining above 4 kft.

Outlook: A weak coastal trough may allow SCT to BKN low clouds to advect inland off the Atlantic at times into Thursday, but confidence in sub-VFR CIGs during this time is low due to uncertainties with the strength of the trough, and how much moisture will be associated with it. The next cold front is forecast to reach ENC late Friday, pushing offshore by Saturday morning. Similar to this recent front, there will be a risk of SCT SHRA, isolated TSRA, and a notable northerly wind shift. Once again it looks like there will be a risk of 20-35kt wind gusts behind the front. Sub VFR conditions may develop as well, especially where SHRA develop.

MARINE

High pressure continues to build into the area tonight, then slides offshore Wednesday. Still seeing strong N to NE winds across the waters around 15-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt and seas up to 6-9 ft. Winds have been a bit slower to diminish then guidance showing but it should begin to diminish more earnestly late this afternoon. Have allowed the Gale Warning to expire but continue the Small Craft Advisory for all but the Pamlico River until late this afternoon and evening. SCA will continue until late tonight across the coastal waters with seas remaining elevated.

Outlook: Much improved boating conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure in control. The next round of impactful winds and seas is expected Friday into Saturday as the next cold front moves through. Once again, a period of northerly post-frontal gales will be possible.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>092-193-198. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.