textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will push across the region tonight with high pressure briefly building in from the north Monday. A strong low pressure system will move across the Carolina coast Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 2 PM Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Scattered showers associated with a cold front will move through overnight bringing light rainfall amounts

After a chilly morning, southerly flow in the wake of a warm front has brought a significant warmup with temps climbing to around 65-70 degrees this afternoon under variably cloudy skies. Skies will continue to increase this afternoon ahead of a cold front that is currently pushing into the Appalachians. Regional radar showing light showers around Cape Fear with additional light rain across the piedmont. Could see a few showers along the light Onslow Co and Crystal Coast late this afternoon but a better chance of precip moves in this evening and overnight as the mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front pushes across the region. Moisture and dynamics remain rather meager and not expecting much precip, mainly less than a couple tenths of an inch. The front is progged to push across ENC mid to late evening with CAA ramping up after midnight with temps bottoming out in the upper 30s/lower 40s inland and mid to upper 40s along the coast around daybreak.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/

As of 2 PM Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Cool weather returns Monday with highs around 10 degrees below normal

High pressure briefly builds in from the north bringing dry and cooler conditions Monday with breezy north winds. Skies will be variably cloudy with clearing skies through the morning but will see increasing clouds through the afternoon as the next storm system strengthens across the deep South. Temps will be around 10 degrees below normal with highs around 50 inland to mid 50s along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 2 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

- A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday bringing the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal flooding

- High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

- Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region late in the week.

Broad upper troughing across the CONUS with a series of embedded shortwaves will push across the region through the long term. A rather robust trough pushes into the Mississippi River Valley Monday night then quickly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Low pressure will rapidly deepen off the Southeast coast late Monday night and lift along the Carolina coast Tuesday morning, then quickly depart the area Tuesday afternoon. Guidance is a bit faster with the system but there continues to be some difference with the low track with most North American models continuing to track the low inland across the coastal plain while most European models show the low tracking right along to just off the coast. A more inland track will bring parts of ENC on the "warm" side of the low bringing the potential for some convective elements and thunder, but this should be mostly confined to the coast east of US 17, and over the marine waters. Meanwhile, a coastal track will generally keep convection off to just along the coast. A plume of anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of a period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low. Ensemble guidance and other forecast aids continue to show a notable signal for heavy rain (1-2"+). The rain is much needed as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. Given the antecedent dry conditions, the flooding threat will be nominal but cannot rule out minor nuisance flooding in areas that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rain rates.

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we'll have to closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside flooding impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more information.

Could see a few showers linger into Tuesday evening but conditions quickly improve overnight as high pressure builds into the area and strong CAA develops. Temps will plummet to the upper 20s to lower 30s inland to low 40s coast. High pressure will bring below normal temps Wednesday and Thursday with temps around 5-10 degree below normal.

Precip chances increase again late in the week as the next northern stream shortwave digs into the central CONUS and a low pressure system lifts along the Southeast coast.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 105 PM Sunday... VFR conditions will continue across ENC through the rest of the afternoon with sub-VFR conditions then expected tonight as a cold front moves through the area.

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure well to the north and east of NC this afternoon with a cold front noted near the Appalachians as of this update. Out ahead of the front, light S'rly flow persists with partly cloudy skies noted across the region. Cold front is forecast to track across ENC overnight bringing a threat for sub-VFR ceilings and some light showers. Have MVFR ceilings reaching our western counties and TAF terminals (PGV/ISO) around 00-03Z Mon with MVFR ceilings reaching EWN/OAJ terminals closer to 03-06Z Mon and the OBX there after. Guidance continues to hint at the threat for IFR ceilings with the passage and directly behind the cold front mainly along and east of Hwy 17 so have added in a SCT deck of IFR ceilings at 900ft to OAJ and EWN terminals between 05Z-09Z. Ceilings rapidly raise behind the cold front as dry air filers into ENC early Mon morning with ENC forecast to be back to VFR conditions by about 12-15Z Mon. While the front will likely bring scattered showers or a steady light rain with it, precip amounts will be light at best (generally less than 0.10 inches) so not expecting any vis reductions with the shower activity. But given increased confidence in precip at all terminals have added a mention of -RA to all terminals on this update with timing occuring generally after 00Z and likely ending by about 06-08Z Mon. Otherwise light S'rly winds become light and variable tonight out ahead of the front and then shift to a N'rly direction behind the front tonight and gust to 15-20 kts after about 14/15Z Mon across much if not all of ENC.

Outlook: High pressure builds back into the area Monday with pred VFR conditions expected. Widespread sub- VFR likely Tuesday as a low pressure system is forecast to lift along the coast. High pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and Thursday with pred VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

As of 3 PM Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions expected tonight through Monday afternoon behind a cold front

- Gale Watch issued for portions of the coastal waters for Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system which will track over the Carolinas

- Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into Wednesday

Currently seeing southerly winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-3 ft across the coastal waters this afternoon. A cold front will cross the waters this evening causing winds to switch to the NW and increase to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Strong northerly winds continue Monday morning, with conditions slowly improving through the day. Seas will build to 4-6 ft in response to stronger winds, then subside below 6 ft Monday afternoon.

Outlook: Fair boating conditions will briefly continue Monday night, but this will be short lived as a strong low pressure system moves into the coastal waters Tuesday morning. Gale conditions are expected across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with winds S 20-30 kts with gusts to 40 kts with seas building to 7-13 ft. There remains potential for Gale conditions to develop in other marine zones, but this will depend on the exact track and strength of this system as is passes by ENC.

Conditions improve through the day Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area bringing light winds and seas. A backdoor front is progged to push south across the waters Thursday night and could see minor SCA conditions for a brief period late Thursday night, mainly in gusts. Reinforcing high pressure briefly builds into the area Thursday but another potential low pressure system may impact the waters late Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

As of 3 AM Sun...A strong low pressure system moving through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening's and early Wednesday morning's high tides. The forecast magnitude and direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity are still unclear at this time.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Monday for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 5 PM EST Monday for AMZ152- 154-156-158. Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for AMZ152-154. Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for AMZ156-158.