textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SCA for central waters has been cancelled a little early, and patchy fog was added early this morning to our NW counties. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged.

Previous: Rain chances have decreased a bit this weekend.

There is a chance of scattered severe thunderstorms on Monday along with periods of heavy rain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather and below Normal temps today.

2) PoPs have decreased a bit for the weekend, as it appears the bulk of heaviest showers or storms will remain mostly to the south of Eastern NC or offshore.

3) A strong cold front will move through on Monday. Depending on the time of day it moves through, scattered severe thunderstorms and some heavy rain may accompany the frontal passage.

4) A warm front lifts through the Carolinas followed by a cold front midweek representing the next wave of precip.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front has pushed S of the FA leading to a Nerly flow CAA regime through the bulk of the day today as SFC high pressure builds across TN and eventually ENC. This will result in a mild, dry day to end the work-week with MaxTs in the low 70s (60s OBX). The high shifts offshore this evening with seasonably cool overnight lows continuing in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continues to trend slightly drier for the weekend, as several low amplitude and weakly sheared shortwaves sweep across the Mid Atlantic. GOM is cutoff from moisture with low pressure aloft currently over Sern AZ/NM eroding as it travels Eward across TX tonight, and thus precip looks to be much more spotty in nature. Continue downward trend in PoPs currently peaking around 40ish%. Low level moisture transport about the high pressure offshore and the afternoon seabreeze may get enough help aloft from the s/w discussed above to lead to weak isolated to scattered showers across the mainland with heavier showers and greater tstorm chances over coastal and offshore waters.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Decent agreement on next stronger shortwave and attendant cold front moving through the region on Monday. This system will have decently strong dynamics with fairly sharp troughing aloft pivoting over ECONUS to become more negatively tilted and potentially steeper lapse rates. Depending on diurnal timing, a severe thunderstorm threat is possible with this system, with the main threats appearing to be severe wind gusts and large hail, along with heavy downpours. Still outside of HiRes guidance resolution window, but global guidance suggest another half inch of rain or so is possible with this FROPA.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Stacked low cutting across the Sern extent of the Great Lakes and high pressure offshore brings warm and moist air across the Carolinas ahead of the next front set to cross the area midweek. Will need to watch this system for severe potential as well.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A stripe of low stratus (IFR/MVFR CIGs) will continue to push south and off the ENC coast early this morning. There will be a brief opportunity for reduced VIS in BR/FG through about 13z this morning, then VFR conditions should prevail into this evening. Southerly return flow develops tonight bringing low- level moisture back into the area. This may support an area of FG or stratus developing. Recent guidance suggests stratus is the most likely scenario. A few SHRA or TSRA may approach the southern coastal runways by sunrise Saturday as well, but any of this activity should stay south of the TAF sites through 12z Saturday.

Outlook: On Saturday, a warm front is forecast to lift north through the area in the morning, and may be accompanied by isolated SHRA and TSRA. In the wake of this warm front, weak to modest instability and increasing moisture may allow for a continued risk of isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA through the weekend. A greater TSRA risk may develop with a frontal boundary on Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any SHRA or TSRA.

MARINE

The cold front has pushed S of the FA with high pressure building in from the W. Nerly winds slowly diminish through the morning becoming 10kt or less around midday. Winds become SEerly with the seabreeze circulation getting going in conjunction with the SFC high pushing off the coast in the evening.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): The improvement will be short lived as SWerly winds approach, but expected to remain under SCA criteria SAT. Weak shortwaves aloft may lead to showers and storms, particularly over Gulf Stream waters. Winds and seas diminish on Sunday, with next fropa expected Monday with SCA conditions possible once again with this front.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.