textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Light rain chances increased inland for today. Thursday's front is trending earlier and drier. Friday morning temps are colder with lighter wind speeds. Sunday rain/snow chances have picked up.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system and cold front Wednesday through Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with a slight chance of non-accumulating snow Thursday morning. Strong CAA behind the front will bring wind chill values in the teens Thursday night into Friday morning.

2) A system with limited moisture moves through Sunday bringing rain and wintry precip chances, with another surge of cold, dry air behind it.

MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. SCA conditions possible again for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A robust northern stream trough continued digging into the eastern CONUS today. An embedded shortwave moving across the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast coast today which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday evening. Confidence is increasing on an offshore track, making the best precip chances continue to be along OBX and areas offshore. Given the more offshore track, much of the precip will be along the Gulf Stream. For this reason, have stepped down PoPs from likely to high end chance (50-54%) along OBX for this evening. PoPs taper to low-end chance (25-40%) well inland This is an upgrade from the slight chance in the previous forecast, as some isentropic lift to the west of the low brings an increased light rain chance. Guidance remains limited with precip amounts which shows around a quarter of an inch along the OBX to little accumulation inland. All liquid precip expected through Wednesday evening.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early Thursday morning. This front has trended drier as of late, and we could see a scenario where little to no precip is observed along the front. Stepped down a tad with PoPs to slight chance, but at this point didn't have enough confidence to drop below 14%. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics but sufficient moisture lingers that we could see a brief change over to a rain/snow mix or snow with strong CAA developing behind the front Thursday morning. This will be a typical cold air chasing the moisture, likely keeping us dry Thursday afternoon except possibly for OBX. Additional rainfall amounts will only be a few hundredths of an inch liquid with no snow accumulation expected. The upper level trough axis pushes across the region later Thursday bringing descent forcing but by this time moisture will be quite limited.

Front Thursday has trended a bit quicker, allowing for CAA to begin sooner as well. Thursday afternoon/evening dewpoints drop quite a bit behind the front, likely reaching the single digits inland during peak mixing. Mixing will also allow for gusty conditions Thursday, 25-30mph in the fcst. High builds in a bit sooner with this quicker trend, allowing for light winds early Thursday night to gradually become calm in the early morning hours once the high builds in. Temps have trended lower with the better radiational cooling conditions early morning Friday, but at the same time winds have decreased during this time. Temps are fcst to drop to the mid to upper teens inland, 20s along the coast, which will result in wind chill values in the mi to upper teens Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front is expected to move through the region Sunday. Models are trending towards a shortwave bringing rain and snow chances to ENC, but considering it is 5 days out, confidence is low. Increased PoPs to 20-30% given the model trends. This doesn't shape to be a big snow maker by any means given the quick nature and limited moisture, but exact impacts will be worth monitoring. NBM had temps in the mid 40s Sunday, but with the colder trend of guidance, elected to do a NBM10/NBM blend for temps which is in line with the chance of snow outcome.

Cyclonic flow continues aloft early to mid next week with additional dry fronts/troughs pushing across the region keeping temps well below normal with highs generally in the 40s and lows in the 20s, though could see upper teens in coolest inland spots.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Ongoing VFR conditions are noted across ENC this morning and will continue into this afternoon. High clouds continue to increase across the area in association with a developing low pressure system off to the south. This low makes its closest point of approach to ENC during the afternoon and evening hours, and we could see some light rain across the area with best chances occuring near Hwy 17 and points east. This light rain could be accompanied by a brief period of lower vis/ceilings (MVFR levels) and to account for this low end threat, have kept the PROB30 group for all terminals this afternoon mainly between 19-23Z. Otherwise we should generally remain VFR outside of this threat as mid and high clouds continue to stream into ENC. As we get into tonight, low clouds finally begin to move into ENC from west to east with MVFR ceilings becoming increasingly likely after midnight out ahead of an approaching cold front. Given the latest trends have MVFR ceilings beginning across the coastal plain around 4-5Z and then quickly pushing east overnight and eventually pushing offshore closer to 12-15Z Thurs. SW winds will gust 15-20 kt this afternoon.

Outlook: A cold front will cross through ENC Thursday, resulting in increasing chances at MVFR ceilings across the area after midnight, persisting into about midday Thurs. Light precipitation will be possible with the frontal passage as well but model trends have been drier. Light rain may briefly mix with some snow Thursday morning, before precip ends by early afternoon. High pressure returns for Friday into Sat resulting in VFR conditions from Thur afternoon through Sat. Monitoring Sun now for potential low pressure development and sub-VFR flight categories.

MARINE

Currently seeing WSW winds gusting to 25 knots across gulf stream waters, with 10-20 knots across colder waters and inland sounds/rivers. Seas 4-5 ft along the Gulf Stream, 2-3 feet elsewhere.

Winds diminish a bit to around 15-20 knots today before picking back up to 20-30 knots Wednesday night as a low forms offshore and strengthens. Again, best chance of seeing Small Craft gusts with this low is along warmer Gulf Stream waters with SW flow. Cooler inland sounds/rivers will see much lighter wind gusts with the SW winds thanks to a marine inversion.

A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and could see NW winds bring strong SCA conditions across the waters. Guidance continues favoring sub-Gale gusts with the NW surge behind the front. No changes to the SCAs with this update, but will likely need SCAs in the future for northern coastal waters and some inland sounds/rivers with the NW flow.

Conditions improve late in the week with high pressure briefly building into the area. This weekend, another cold front moves through, bringing elevated winds and seas once again.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ158.