textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming and mostly dry conditions will continue through mid next week. There is a low end potential for record high temps.

2) The next frontal system approaches the area late next week, with increasing precip chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will continue to slide offshore today, persisting into next week. Once the high becomes established offshore SAT morning, S'rly flow sets up and allows for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA. As a result, a warming and drying trend is forecast into mid next week. MaxTs today will climb into the upper 70s for the beaches and into the low/mid 80s inland. Temps will continue to warm into mid next week, with highs in the 90s inland and 80s for the beaches. While we will likely remain below record high temps this weekend and into early next week, we will be close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next frontal system approaches the area late next week. SChc of precip WED afternoon and evening with increasing moisture possibly being enough to lead to some seabreeze activity. Still quite a bit of model spread in regard to timing and moisture available for FROPA this far out, but this will bring the next best chances for precip. Front currently forecast to cross late Thu into Fri. Cooler temps expected behind the front, returning to near climo.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions likely through the TAF period. Dewpoints are higher tonight compared to last night, so light to calm winds and generally clear skies bring a low end risk of some shallow ditch/ground fog at terminals away from the coast in the early morning hours. With the 6Z TAF issuance, I will have TEMPO MVFR groups for OAJ and EWN 8-12Z, with TEMPO 6SM for the same time period further inland at ISO, PGV. On Saturday, southerly winds should get a bump up with the seabreeze as it develops and moves inland with gusts aoa 15 kt or so by afternoon.

Outlook (Sunday through Tuesday): Continued moisture return in persistent southerly flow may lead to TEMPO periods of low CIGs/stratus over the weekend late at night into the early morning hours. Otherwise, a daily seabreeze is expected with occasionally gusty winds. With dry high pres in place, no convection is expected with chances below 10%. The next chance of showers or a few storms is Thursday.

MARINE

Latest obs show light winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-4 ft. High pressure will continue to slide offshore today, with winds becoming SSW. Light SSW winds this morning will increase through the day, increasing to 10-20 kt late this afternoon and evening as thermal gradient strengthens, with seas 3-5 ft.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): Typical summertime pattern will continue along with mostly dry and warming forecast into mid week. Mostly S-SW winds through the period with high pressure offshore. Light to moderate SSW winds in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes. Seas generally remaining 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.