textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Sea fog threat has waned across area waters, but more sea fog and land-based fog likely to redevelop overnight.

Rain chances trending upward for early next week, but well above normal warmth will remain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dense fog threat will return tonight and persist for the next few overnight periods.

2) Well above normal to near record conditions expected Wednesday through early next week with high pressure ridging offshore.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change in the overall pattern this afternoon with the Carolinas remaining under zonal flow and high pressure, centered over the western Atlantic, expanding over much of the southeastern CONUS. Dense fog earlier this morning has since completely burned off over land with very little evidence of it over area waters on satellite.

Tonight, light to calm winds and low dewpoint depressions will bring another round of fog. Forecast trends this afternoon have now favored clearer skies, and thus likelihood of fog formation has increased slightly from the previous forecast. There is a stronger signal for dense fog mainly along the Crystal Coast, perhaps sea fog bleeding onshore, and explicitly show visibilities down to 1/2 mile here Thurs AM. Fog headlines may be needed here during the overnight shift.

For planning purposes, sea fog could continue to plague the coast the next few mornings through this weekend, but the exact location and intensity is hard to predict this far out.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some afternoons, especially tomorrow through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures.

Latest forecast trends show a weak front moving into the Carolinas late this weekend and into early next week, with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms as the well above normal conditions hold on.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR through early evening. Another round of fog is likely tonight, with the potential for LIFR to VLIFR conditions. Most likely at KOAJ to KEWN, toward the coast. At these terminals the highest risk for longer duration LIFR conditions. Farther inland dense fog still expected, but it may take a few more hours to set up at KISO and KPGV. A return to VFR Thursday may be a slow process, and not until closer to 15Z/17Z with light winds.

Wind SW at 5-10 kt this afternoon with a few gusts through late afternoon toward 20. Wind becoming light to calm again tonight.

MARINE

SEA FOG: A rinse and repeat for sea fog expected tonight with visibilities dropping over the nearshore waters of Onslow Bay and the waters adjacent the northern Outer Banks later tonight, then bleeding into the sounds pre-dawn Thursday. With a stagnant airmass and little change in the pattern through the rest of the week, fog formation will likely continue to plague area waters for the next few mornings. Exact location and intensity will be hard to predict this far out.

WINDS/SEAS: Only zone with SCA level seas are the central waters off of Cape Hatteras where seas at Diamond Shoals continue to hover near 6 feet. This is expected to drop off by dusk, giving way to good boating conditions tonight with S/SW winds at 5-15 kts through tomorrow. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft.

Outlook: Pleasant boating conditions continue into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine area.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 03/05 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 84/2015 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/1976 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 86/1923 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 76/2023 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 87/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 83/1985 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 85/1961 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 76/1992 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1992 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 85/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 82/1961 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1974 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/2022 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/1908 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 85/1974 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ154.