textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A return to cool conditions behind the yesterday's cold front with temps slowly moderating through mid week. A dry cold front moves through Thursday stalling to the S. A low pressure area traveling along the stalled boundary brings widespread rain on Saturday, with high pressure returning SUN into next week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/

As of 0200 Tuesday...Cold, crisp, and cloudless day in store as high pressure builds in at the SFC. MaxTs only top out in the low to mid 40s, 20-30deg cooler than yesterday abnormally warm day. Brisk NWerly winds in place due to tight SFC gradient, aided by mixing brought on from trough aloft in place over ECONUS. These winds and lack of moisture will make it feel ~10deg colder than actual temps; MaxAppT in the mid to upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 0200 Tuesday...Coldest night of the week with strong radiational cooling set up under clear skies and calming winds overnight. Temps get to AoB freezing just after sunset and will continue to plummet through the rest of tonight. Mainland MinTs in low to mid 20s, OBX upper 20s to low 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 0220 Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Below normal temps into mid week.

- Seasonable temps mid week through early next week.

- Low pressure brings widespread rain on Saturday. Wednesday through Friday...Breezy Werly winds continue, but weaker than TUE. The airmass begins to moderate Wednesday with highs around ~50. A series of weak shortwaves will push through the area for the latter half of the work week bringing periods of mid and high clouds. But, deeper moisture will be lacking and therefor expect dry conditions to prevail with zonal flow. A dry front will push through the area Thursday evening and stall south of the area Friday with brief high pressure building in.

Saturday...The upper trough begins to lift out late in the week with a southern stream shortwave traversing the deep south and moving just south of ENC leads to weak cyclogenesis along the boundary stalled to the FA's S. Developing low pushing off the SECONUS coast leads to likely PoPs SAT, especially along the Crystal Coast where the highest PoPs reside (60-70%).

Sunday through Monday...Low exits the area with high pressure rebuilding into the region bringing a return to dry weather and mo clear skies. Temps will remain near climo with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 610 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with mostly clear skies. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt will continue through late this afternoon.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the end of the week with a low end chance for sub-VFR conditions to return Fri night into Sat.

MARINE

As of 0200 Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- All Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs.

- Generally Werly winds in the 10-20kt range with ocnl gusts to 25 kt late Tuesday through mid week. SCA more likely Gulf waters Wed night with sw winds increasing.

- Dry cold front moves through late Thursday with better potential for widespread SCA developing in winds and seas in it's wake.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Werly flow expected through mid week with general winds in the 10-20 kt range with gusts to 25 kt at times. Better chance for SCA for the Gulf waters Wed night with WSWerly gradient inc gusts to around 30 kt.

Thursday through Friday...Back door dry front moves through late Thur with Nerly wind surge bringing SCA to the sounds and remaining waters through early Fri morning.

Weekend...Strengthening low pressure works Eward from SECONUS, pushing off the coast somewhere from GA to SC latter half of Saturday. Rain appears widespread with this system, along with increases in winds and seas, though depends on the low track and strength with details yet to be worked out. High pressure builds back SUN into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 145 AM Tue...

Key Messages....

- Potential remains for increased fire danger conditions today as low RH's combine with breezy winds and dry antecedent conditions

Today, we will once again have the potential to see increased fire danger conditions across the area with low RH values (~25-35%), breezy WNW winds, and dry antecedent conditions. Will note, while RH's are low and soils remain dry, wind gusts will be lower (15-20 kts) so criteria for headlines may not be met.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ131-135-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150-152- 154-156-158.