textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered min temps Friday morning

Lowered dewpoints/minimum RH Thu and Fri afternoons

KEY MESSAGES

1) Moderating trend starts today, with temps returning to above normal with mainly dry conditions through the weekend.

3) Next frontal passage not expected until Monday with rain chances inc to 30-40%, though rain amounts appear light.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...We'll gradually warm from late-week through the weekend. Today, temperatures will moderate to around or only slightly below average, in the upper 50s to low 60s (low 50s OBX). By this weekend, inland temperatures will be back into the upper 70s/low 80s with the beaches reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. A shortwave will swing through the Mid Atlantic Friday night. This may trigger some overnight showers during the overnight period Friday night, and 20% pops have been introduced as a result. Otherwise, dry through the weekend. Monday is the warmest day just ahead of approaching backdoor front from the north, with temps reaching the 80-85 range interior zones (70s coast). Fire weather concerns should remain rather low, despite the mainly dry conditions, due to light winds forecast through the weekend with high pressure dominating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Aforementioned backdoor front pushes through on Monday afternoon, which will bring our next chance for showers and a resultant cooldown. Pops remain in the 30-40% range on Monday with this fropa. ECM solution remains on the drier side, with scant QPF forecast. CMC/GFS are a bit wetter, though even the wetter solutions do not fcst much QPF (<0.25") as the GOM will not be tapped with this frontal system. Temps return to near normal behind the fropa towards mid next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with light N/NE winds. Skies will be a mix of clear to mostly cloudy at times over the next 24 hours but cloudbases will be at or above 10 kft. Light to calm winds tonight, but with mid/upper clouds in and out paired with the low dewpoints, not expecting fog concerns tonight. Thursday night, we have calm winds and clear skies with dewpoints in the mid 30s. Expecting the near surface level to be dry, so fog is unlikely tomorrow night.

Outlook...Pred VFR flight cats will continue through the period with high pressure in control through the next several days. Frontal system Monday brings gustier winds, currently forecast to be around 20 knots out of the east/northeast. With this front, some showers and sub-VFR ceilings are possible.

MARINE

Marginal SCA due to 6 ft seas will cont today acrs the outer ctrl waters (Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet). The nerly swell subsides tonight with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft (5 ft outer waters S of C Hatteras). Nrly breeze 5-15 kt today will diminish to less than 10 kt tonight, then veer to s to se on Friday as high pres ridge passes east and off the coast, but will remain on the light side.

Outlook (Saturday through Monday):

Good boating conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure dominates. Winds will generally be 5-15 kt with 2-5 ft seas. On Monday, swrly gradient inc with 10-20 kt winds expected, with some 25+ kt possible on the Gulf Stream waters, ahead of approaching cold front. Front passes through late Mon with solid SCA northerly surge of 20-30 kt developing in its wake through Mon night into Tue, with seas rapidly building to 6+ ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152- 154.