textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will continue to build in from the north through tomorrow. The high will shift offshore tomorrow night through this weekend. A strong cold front will bring unsettled weather Sunday into Monday. High pressure briefly builds back into the area Monday night, and a quick moving frontal system will bring rain showers back to the region late Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 405 AM Thu...Quiet weather pattern remains over the Carolinas this morning as mid level ridging prevails over much of the eastern CONUS. This feature will begin to break down later today as a weakening shortwave, currently over the Gulf States, lifts eastward through the afternoon. At the surface, Canadian high pressure remains wedged along the Atlantic coast while weak surface troughing lingers well offshore.

Dry conditions prevail today although clouds will steadily increase as a mid-level moisture pool advects over the Carolinas. Northeasterly winds will keep cooler temps locked in over the northern Outer Banks where the mercury will struggle to crack 50, but farther south highs should reach into the mid to potentially upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 415 AM Thu...Offshore trough will slowly lift towards the coast overnight as the surface high begins to give way to a wave of low pressure forecast to be lifting across the MS River Valley overnight. At a minimum, the trough will bring an increase in low-level cloudiness along the coast. CAMs do hint at some scattered shower activity accompanying the boundary over offshore waters but remaining astray of the Outer Banks until after sunrise on Friday. Thus, kept the forecast dry.

Lows moderate slightly overnight thanks to weak low level moisture advection. Overnight lows remain above freezing across the coastal plain, with 40s along the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 3 AM Thurs...

KEY MESSAGES

*Widely scattered showers possible Friday and Saturday, otherwise it will be dry with above normal conditions

*A strong cold front will move through the area Sunday into Monday morning, and has the potential to bring rain, strong winds, and severe weather to Eastern NC

*Another quick shot of rain likely late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with conditions likely turning much colder the rest of next week

Friday and Saturday...While high pressure continues to ridge down the lee of the Appalachians Friday, a coastal trough will sharpen and drift onshore as the center of the high shifts east off the Mid-Atlantic coast. With ample moisture in the low levels, this will be enough for widely scattered showers to develop in the vicinity of the front. The front will struggle to move much farther inland than the Pamlico Sound, which will keep precip chances confined to the Outer Banks for most of Friday. One other factor at play Friday will be the moisture advection and overrunning precip chances from South Carolina northward through central NC. Forecast guidance is mixed on whether any showers will trek far enough east to reach the eastern coastal plain counties, and given the uncertainty along with upper level ridging overhead, will opt to keep conditions dry there for now on Friday. A decent temperature range is likely across the forecast area as some CAD influence may keep the coastal plain in the mid 50s, while areas along the coast see highs in the low 60s.

As high pressure shifts offshore Saturday and southerly flow develops, the remnant coastal trough will pivot farther inland, and may help promote additional widely scattered light shower development. Low level heights will soar Saturday, but partly to at times mostly cloudy skies will limit highs from rising past the upper 60s to low 70s.

Sunday and Monday...A potent upper level trough will move out of the Tennessee Valley early Sunday while a surface low deepens across the Ohio Valley. As the upper trough heads east Sunday, it will likely take on a negative tilt, and allow for deep warm air advection to develop across the Carolinas. This will swing a slow moving but potentially strong cold front through the area late Sunday into early Monday. Forecast confidence continues to increase, and have raised PoPs to 60-80%, and expanded thunder chances to include the entire forecast area as the WAA out ahead of the front taps into and advects northward Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Atlantic air. It's still too early to say what kind of severe weather threat will accompany this front, but early indications and pattern recognition would say there is some higher end severe potential with this system, if all the ingredients can come together.

The front should clear the coast by Monday morning, and high pressure moving in behind it will lead to above normal conditions continuing Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A quick moving frontal system will zip across the Eastern US on Tuesday, and bring a shot of light rain to the Carolinas from late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Behind this system conditions will begin to turn much colder for the rest of next week as strong and cold high pressure builds in.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

SHORT TERM /through 06z Fri/... As of 1230 AM Thu...Predominant VFR conditions expected through most of the period as cool high pressure further wedges into the Carolinas from the northeast. Low stratus continues to hug the Outer Banks and latest satellite shows this field beginning to bleed inland towards Highway 17. Consequently, EWN may see some brief MVFR overnight. Farther inland, sites that tend to decouple may see some patchy shallow fog pre-dawn if upper cloud cover can remain thin enough.

VFR through the day with increasing mid and upper level clouds and northeasterly winds of 5-10 kt. Some infrequent gusts to 15 kt are possible across the inner coastal plain in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3 AM Thurs...Conditions should be mostly VFR through Saturday with high pressure over the area. A weak coastal trough may bring some low end VFR or MVFR ceilings to the coast at times late this week. By late Sunday, increasing rain chances ahead of a cold front may bring some sub-VFR conditions to the region through Monday morning.

MARINE

SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 430 AM Thu...High pressure remains anchored along the Atlantic seaboard this morning while weak troughing remains offshore. The resultant gradient is keeping northeasterly winds elevated over the waters, felt most over the Gulf Stream where mixing is strongest. Regional observations show winds of 10-15 kt and seas 5-6 feet offshore.

The gradient will not ease much during the day, with some guidance pointing to a short increase in winds during the afternoon as the trough migrates closer to shore. Compared to yesterday, stronger winds are favored to linger slightly longer into the evening hours and extended the SCA to midnight Friday for waters south of Ocracoke Inlet. Winds and seas begin to subside overnight as the trough axis migrates further northward.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3 AM Thurs...Decent boating conditions will exist until Sunday when winds increase ahead of a cold front.

Winds on Friday will let down to NE 10-20 kts, and then by Friday night will veer to the SE at 10-15 kts as high pressure shifts offshore. A slow moving cold front will approach Sunday and winds will increase ahead of it to at least S 15-25 kts, but will be highest over the warmer coastal waters where Gale Force gusts are possible. Behind the cold front Monday morning winds will turn to the WNW at 10-15 kts. Seas will remain mostly 3-5 ft through Saturday before increasing to 4-7 ft Sunday. Seas will continue to build Sunday night to 6-8 ft, and then slowly subside Monday to 4-6 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ152- 154-156-158.