textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added the Neuse and Bay Rivers to the Small Craft Advisory.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will push through the area today bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

2) Warm and mostly dry conditions expected for much of the upcoming week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will move south along the coast of NC during peak heating today. West to northwest low-level flow should tend to limit the strength of convergence along the front. However, as the front encounters the developing seabreeze, there should be a local enhancement to low-level forcing, especially along and south of HWY 70. This is the area where the best chance for sustained, deep convection exists. The risk is conditional on sufficient low-level forcing, but should this occur, a short-lived risk of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may develop thanks to elevated deep layer shear (~35kt) and moderate instability (MLCAPE up to 1500J/kg). Machine learning guidance isn't all that excited about this potential, and this likely speaks to the conditionality of the threat. This risk will quickly end from north to south as the front shifts off the Crystal Coast by sunset.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continue to trend stronger with an upper level ridge that will be expanding across the Southern U.S. this week. In fact, ensemble guidance is now forecasting 500mb heights around 600dm with this ridge, the strength of which is very unusual for this time of year. Normally, this would spell anomalous heat for ENC. However, a pocket of "cooler" thicknesses is forecast to be over the Carolinas associated with the post-frontal northeasterly flow regime, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. While it will be dry, those cooler thicknesses may shield ENC from the anomalous heat that other parts of the South will experience. That pocket of lower thicknesses may begin to erode by the end of the week, with temperatures warming by then. However, guidance differ on when/if this will occur.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A slightly drier westerly flow continues early this morning bringing mostly VFR conditions across rtes, however shallow fog has developed across portions of the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula where heavier rain fell yesterday afternoon, as well as far southern rtes, including OAJ where vsbys are occasionally dropping to IFR. The fog will burn off fairly quickly after sunrise.

A risk of SCT TSRA is expected this afternoon along a cold front that will be moving south through ENC, with highest probabilities along the coast and have added Prob30 to the coastal TAF sites. There is the potential for some of the thunderstorms to become strong, capable of gusty winds of 40kt+. This risk is contingent on sufficient instability and lift developing along the front. A nerly wind shift, and a bump up in winds, is expected behind the front. Wind gusts as high as 20-25kt will be possible for a few hours behind the front late this afternoon into the evening.

Outlook (Mon night through Fri): High pressure builds in through the middle of the week with mostly VFR conditions expected. The high should also keep a lid on precip through at least mid week.

MARINE

Westerly winds around 15 kt or less with seas around 2-4 ft across the waters early this morning. A cold front will push south across the waters today with a north to northeast surge around 15-25 kt developing behind the front. Winds will peak through the evening hours then gradually diminish late tonight into Tuesday. Have added the Neuse and Bay Rivers to the SCA. Seas will build to around 5-8 ft late today and tonight with highest seas across the Gulf Stream. Wave guidance is typically underdone in NE flow and manually adjusted seas up 1-2 ft this afternoon into Tuesday, especially across the northern waters.

Outlook: An extended period of northeasterly flow is expected through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Winds are forecast to lay down below 25kt, but elevated seas may linger for much of the week, especially with the contra flow against the Gulf Stream waters. For the near-shore coastal waters, the Small Craft Advisories may need to be extended into mid-week depending on how long the elevated seas last.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ158.