textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased winds and seas this morning and tonight for marine zones. Extended Small Craft Advisories for coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras until Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through much of the work week.

2) Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend into early next week bringing beneficial rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... No real changes in the forecast through this weekend as severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3).

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. A continued warming and drying trend is forecast as temps get into the 80s to low 90s today and tomorrow. While Min RH's each day will remain low (25-35%), winds gusts are currently forecast to be below 20 mph which may preclude additional Increased Fire Danger Statements for the remainder of the week.

Either way, a statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...No significant changes to forecast thinking as the area sees some modest increase in moisture on Friday and into the weekend. In addition to the increase in moisture, instability is forecast to build as well and with a weak mid level shortwave moving across the Mid-Atlantic and a stalled front at the surface draped NW to SE from the Mid- Atlantic into eastern NC, this front may become the focus for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday closer to the NC/VA border and offshore. This is then expected to be followed by a more substantial plume of moisture within an increasingly active upper level pattern over the weekend and into next week. While the pattern certainly looks more active it does become quite a bit more complicated in nature with a weak blocking pattern setting up aloft by the end of this week, with multiple shortwaves then tracking along the southern stream jet as the blocking pattern pushes off to the east over the weekend into early next week. The exact track and location of the incoming shortwaves will determine overall timing of precipitation threats but think there are multiple chances at seeing showers and thunderstorms starting this weekend and going into next week.

General thinking is the stalled front remains in place with a low developing along this front on Sat and pushing offshore on Sun. This combination of increasing moisture, lift, and instability should favor one, or more, rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest chance focused Saturday into Sunday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday/Tuesday, but this will depend on the evolution of the upper level pattern and if any additional frontal boundaries can push across the region. I'll note given the ongoing drought while PoP's may be higher than what we have seen lately QPF amounts still look to be meager with ensemble probabilities of of greater than 0.5 inches over a 24 hour period this weekend being closer to 10-30% so expectation is while we should get some rain, rainfall amounts generally remain below 0.5 inches overall. In addition to this, within this pattern, there may be enough shear and instability for at least a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, especially Saturday, and this is something we'll monitor in the coming days.

Trends for Tuesday suggests a more neutrally tilted trough overspreading the area which would then lead to a weaker frontal boundary pushing across ENC and more of a general thunder and shower risk with precip amounts potentially being light in nature once again. While on the lower end of threats given the latest trends there could be some low end severe potential once again on Tue depending on timing of the front and how strong the forcing is and we will continue to monitor the situation as we get closer. Late week next week will also be worth monitoring for any severe probabilities but given general uncertainty in the upper level pattern and surface features will continue to just monitor this threat.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct mid-level clouds will push off the coast in the next few hours, with skies becoming mostly clear. Light W winds develop early this morning and continue through the day, becoming SW late this afternoon and evening as seabreeze pushes inland.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected Friday. A wetter pattern develops over the weekend and early next week that could bring periods of sub- VFR conditions.

MARINE

SW winds have overperformed ahead of a cold front stalled to our north with latest obs showing 15-25 kt winds with gusts up to 35 kts along the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Elsewhere winds are below 25 knots with pressure gradient not as tight. Small crafts continue for coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Seas 4-8 ft south of Oregon Inlet, highest along the Gulf Stream, will slowly abate this morning, becoming 2-5 ft this afternoon. Thursday night into Friday morning the pressure gradient gets renewed south of Cape Hatteras, increasing SW wind gusts to 25-30 knots. While winds will ease a bit this afternoon and evening, the resurgence tonight has allowed for the extension of the SCA currently in effect south of Cape Hatteras until 12Z Friday.

Outlook: An area of low pressure and its associated fronts are forecast to move through the ENC waters this weekend with elevated winds and seas and the potential for thunderstorms. The greatest thunderstorm risk appears to be on Saturday. Winds and seas early next week could be higher than forecast if the above mentioned low ends up deepening offshore as some guidance suggests.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ154-156-158.