textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered OBX temps over the next several days given model bias.

Introduced key message for hot temperatures next week.

Increased PoPs along the coast and for marine zones today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Becoming hot and humid again this weekend with highs in the 90s, and heat indices around 100-109 each afternoon.

2)Shortwave and back door cold front brings tstorm chances late weekend

3) Very hot and humid conditions possible mid to late next week as we approach July 4th.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Winds are light and variable to calm this across the region. Outside of some high clouds that encroach upon ENC early Thursday morning expect mo clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling. This will result in one last night of comfortable lows which get into the mid 60s inland and low 70s along the OBX tonight. Though this will also bring some patchy shallow ground fog especially across areas that saw rain Tuesday. Any fog is forecast to burn off a little after daybreak.

Generally quiet day for most, with easterly winds becoming southeast behind the sea breeze. A weak meso low is forming in gulf stream waters, and will bring precip chances along the coast, with PoPs introduced for Carteret county and SOBX.

Otherwise we expect any leftover troughing across the region to lift north allowing for W-SW flow to develop aloft bringing a WAA regime back to ENC Friday into this weekend. With low level thicknesses generally around 1420-1430m, highs this weekend get into the mid to upper 90s each day which could be near or break records (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO). Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s heat indices could be around 100-109 each day. Heat indices of around 100F Friday increase to 100-109F Saturday. Sunday temps have a bit more uncertainty, as the timing of a back door cold front and associated cloud cover/precip will play a large role on temps. The current forecast though calls for Heat Indices of 100-105F south of hwy 264. Based on the current forecast and ensemble probs, Saturday looks to be the best chance of needing any heat advisory headlines.

Kept SChc PoPs Friday afternoon (20%), as SW winds bring enough moisture for PWATs in excess of 1.75" and increased instability ahead of the sea breeze.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Not much change in forecast thinking as a second and slightly stronger shortwave and associated surface backdoor cold front look to track across the region on Sunday as a high builds into the Great Lakes region. On top of the increased chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sat, increased chances for precipitation are once again possible on Sun as well. There are some slight timing and strength differences between available guidance during this timeframe for the shortwave and associated front, signs currently point to a more active weekend across ENC with trends generally being diurnal in nature (highest chances for precip in the afternoon and evening). Will note given the nature of shower and thunderstorm activity it will not be a washout either day with showers and storms likely being hit or miss across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An omega block sets up with anomalous ridging persisting across the the midwest and eastern US next week. This will bring near record high temperatures to the region mid to late next week. GEFS and EPS probs of high temps > 100F are greater than 30% for inland locales during this time period. Temperature trends will be worth watching with the event still 6+ days out. CPC has highlighted the Carolinas in a high risk of extreme heat July 2-4. For those with outdoor plans for the July 4th holiday this will be worth monitoring.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, but could see patchy shallow fog early this morning. Clear skies observed with light to calm winds, allowing for good radiational cooling conditions. With a fairly dry airmass across the region yesterday, temps are not expected to reach cross- over temps tonight, so not expected significant fog development. However, cannot rule out patchy shallow ground fog that will bring limited impacts to the terminals. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate after sunrise today with diurnal cumulus developing through the afternoon. Winds become light to calm again tonight, bringing renewed chances for shallow ground fog.

Outlook (Thurs night through Mon): Primarily VFR conditions expected into Sat as we remain mostly dry though could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze each afternoon Fri/Sat bringing a brief period of sub-VFR conditions to any area impacted by this activity. A front then tracks across the area on Sun bringing a bigger threat at sub-VFR conditions. However, by Mon VFR conditions return.

MARINE

Benign boating conditions are noted across most waters this morning as high pressure sits over the region. Latest obs show widespread 5-15 kt E-SE'rly winds across all waters and 2-3 ft seas across the coastal waters within 20 NM and 2-4 ft seas noted further offshore 20-60NM. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf Stream may organize into a weak area of low pressure this morning into the afternoon, potentially increasing in coverage through the morning. This would bring a risk of thunderstorms along the Gulf Stream, with brief periods of heavy showers for nearshore waters. One thing of note is with a weak easterly component to the flow on the northeast side of the weak low, a non-zero waterspout threat exists for offshore waters this morning into the afternoon. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain light into the evening while becoming SE'rly, generally 5-10 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts at times. Seas into Thurs evening lower to 2-3 ft across the coastal waters and a foot or less across the inland waters. Will see a chance at some isolated to widely scattered showers and storms well offshore 30-60 NM out but other than that, boating conditions look to be rather pleasant heading into Thurs night. Winds eventually become SW'rly Thurs night into Friday.

Outlook (Thu night through Mon): Winds eventually become SW'rly Thurs night into Friday. Pinched pressure gradient and thermal gradient Friday and Saturday PM brings a risk of SCA conditions to coastal waters with SW gusts around 25 knots. Gulf stream showers and thunderstorms possible Friday morning with greater chances Sat/Sun with the shortwave and back door cold front.

CLIMATE

Record High Temps for 06/26 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 90/2011 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/2008 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 96/1948 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 100/1997 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 98/1968 (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temps for 06/27 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern105/1952 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 94/2019 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 100/2010 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City100/1959 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 97/2010 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 99/1998 (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temps for 06/28 (Sunday) LOCATIONTEMP/YEAR New Bern 99/1959 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 95/1978 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/1921 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 102/1959 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 97/2010 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 99/1978 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.