textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes since the previous update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temps and mainly dry conditions forecast through this weekend.

2) Next frontal passage not expected until Monday with precip chances increasing, though rain amounts appear light.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...No major changes with forecast thinking as we will continue to gradually warm through the weekend. Upper level trough that is currently overhead will gradually push offshore with more zonal flow setting up across the Eastern Seaboard. S-SW'rly winds set up at the surface allowing for thicknesses to increase over the next few days bringing high temps into the 70s and 80s inland and into the upper 60s across the OBX Fri-Mon. LOws tonight will be the coldest as light to calm winds and clear skies will result in a favorable radiational cooling set up allowing much of the area to get into the mid 30s to low 40s, but lows then warm through this weekend into the mid 40s to low 50s. A shortwave will swing through the Mid Atlantic Friday night. This may trigger some overnight showers Friday night, and SChc PoPs remain in place, mainly along our northern tier where best forcing is located. Otherwise, dry through the weekend. Monday is the warmest day just ahead of approaching backdoor front from the north, with temps reaching the 80-85 range interior zones (70s coast). Fire weather concerns should remain rather low, despite the mainly dry conditions, due to light winds forecast through the weekend with high pressure dominating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Stronger shortwave and deeper upper troughing then track across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Mon into Tue bringing a backdoor cold front into the area. There is the typical uncertainty with frontal timing and how widespread precipitation will be, with the ECMWF being the quickest with this frontal passage moving it through the area by early Mon afternoon with the GFS and CMC moving the front through by MOn night. For now let POP's increase slightly to the 40-50% range, but this could be our high POP low QPF so scattered showers but not alot of rain overall outcome. In addition to this, we are monitoring the potential for thunderstorms as well. If the frontal passage is later in the day such as the GFS/CMC suggests sufficient instability/wind shear should be able to build and with stronger forcing with the front a few stronger thunderstorms certainly wouldn't be out of the question. If the front moves through sooner any thunderstorm threat would be much lower. Temps return to near normal behind the fropa towards mid next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period with light north to northeasterly winds around 10 kt or less, becoming E to NE this afternoon. Clear and calm conditions tonight will bring good radiational cooling conditions but fog potential low with a very dry airmass in place and crossover temps below forecast lows. HREF and REFS probs are less than 20% for fog development. Winds become southerly Friday afternoon around 5-10 kt with gusts to around 15 kt.

Outlook...Isolated showers possible Friday night ahead of a weakening front and will see lowering cigs but should remain VFR. The front will push into the area and dissipate on Saturday. A frontal system Monday brings gustier winds, currently forecast to be around 20 knots out of the east/northeast along with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms with sub-VFR ceilings possible.

MARINE

Winds have certainly over-preformed today and have since been adjusted to reflect this with widespread NE'rly winds at 10 to 20 kts with 25 kt gusts out along the Gulf Stream waters this afternoon. Seas along our coastal waters have generally persisted at about 3-5 ft, though some 4-7 ft seas remain noted along the outerwaters between Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet. As a result, still have an ongoing SCAs across our central waters. While winds are forecast to gradually ease this evening, down to about 5-10 knots and becoming light and variable at times seas wont change much generally remaining around 3-5 ft along most of our coastal waters with some 4-6 ft seas noted along the outer waters between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke through tonight. Winds will remain rather light on Fri, eventually becoming S'rly while seas do finally lower to 2-4 ft along our coastal water thus ending the last of the SCA's across our coastal waters.

Outlook (Saturday through Monday): A weak front nears the area, stalls, and eventually lifts north as a warm front bringing a few isolated showers to our waters Fri night into Sat and potentially tightening the gradient enough for a brief period of SCA conditions as SW'rly winds increase. Trends will need to be monitored for this threat, but either way any SCA winds/seas would be brief in nature even if they did occur. On Monday, SW wind increase with 10-20 kt winds expected, with some 25+ kt possible on the Gulf Stream waters, ahead of approaching cold front. Front passes through late Mon with solid SCA northerly surge of 20-30 kt developing in its wake through Mon night into Tue, with seas rapidly building to 6+ ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.