textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday. No other significant changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly quiet weather with steadily increasing moisture to start the week. Sea breeze worth monitoring for Wednesday.

2) A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing gusty winds and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1..Clear skies and steadily decreasing NW winds today as high pressure moves overhead. Winds shift back to the southwest tomorrow allowing dewpoints to climb back up as high pressure expands across the SE.

As we get into Wednesday, profiles continue to moisten as high offshore funnels in moist air. There may some residual dry air at around 700-850 mb, and the state of this dry layer will be something worth monitoring. Wednesday afternoon's sea breeze will encounter an environment with decent bulk shear and LLJ and some impressive low level helicity. If this dry layer moistens, it could provide enough instability for isolated convection to fire up along the sea breeze. With the 40-50kt LLJ in place the convection would make it easier for strong wind gusts to slip down, and with the low level helicity in place a quick spin up would also be in the cards. HOWEVER, this is a low probability outcome at this point. Things working against this are the aforementioned dry layer and a lack of upper level support to produce more organized convection. With the low probability, but potentially impactful setup at play, elected to go above NBM thunder probs and add schc thunder mentions Wednesday PM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The pattern becomes active again by mid-week. A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday evening. At the surface, a cold front will cross the Midwest on Tuesday before stalling Wednesday/early Thursday across the Appalachians. A low will develop along this front, but there are slight model differences in the speed of the front and the strength and track of the low. General consensus is that the front will cross ENC late Thursday afternoon/evening.

Isolated showers could start as early as Wednesday night with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday, although forcing is the biggest question at that point. The latest NSSL severe probs show a 10-30% chance of severe storms with greatest chances being near the coast. Given the favorable FROPA timing of late afternoon/evening, ample bulk shear (60+ kt) and sufficient instability, a few strong to potentially severe storms will be possible. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front could dampen destabilization and decrease the severe threat, but it's still too far out to determine coverage.

In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW winds with gusts to approximately 30 mph inland and 35-40 mph along the coast.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure will move overhead this evening, then shift quickly offshore later tonight. Light and variable winds beneath the high will then become southerly by sunrise on Monday as the high shifts offshore. Those southerly winds are likely to be gusty at times, especially as the seabreeze develops and moves inland.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hrs. However, overnight tonight, moisture gradually returning within the developing southerly flow may allow some shallow fog development, especially at KOAJ and KISO. The FG is not expected to be impactful, and for now the TAFs will not reflect this potential due to the marginal nature of the risk.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR flight conditions should persist into early this week.

MARINE

Winds and seas gradually continue decreasing through the day. Tonight, winds will return to the SW and relax to 5-10 kt with seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. SW winds will increase to 10-20 kt tomorrow with seas at 2-3 ft.

Outlook: 10-20 kt SW winds will continue through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, increasing winds and seas both ahead of and behind it. There's potential for SW Gale force gusts ahead of the front for most of Thursday across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Additionally, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...None.