textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes to headlines this morning. Probability of rain Thursday evening into Friday continues to slowly increase.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and cool with increasing clouds expected today into tonight.

2) Front approaches the region late Thursday into Friday with rain likely, although rainfall amounts remain uncertain.

Marine...SCAs continue for the Pamlico sound and coastal waters into today with breezy NW winds and elevated seas. Gusty SW winds develop mid week ahead of approaching front with a low risk of Gales over the Gulf Stream.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Upper trough responsible for yesterday's powerful and historic Nor'easter is now pushing off the coast this morning, leaving the Carolinas in increasing northwesterly mid-level flow, which will gradually become more zonal into tomorrow as weaker but quick-moving shortwave transits the Great Lakes. At the surface, cooler high pressure centered over the lower MS River Valley is attempting to build eastward but a respectable pressure gradient remains, keeping winds elevated this hour.

Dry, cool, and low-impact weather expected today with mainly clear skies as aforementioned high shifts to our south. NW winds will gradually subside with temps rising into the 40s (coolest northern OBX), then back southwesterly and increase overnight as low pressure driven by Great Lakes shortwave races towards the northeast CONUS.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next rainmaker for our area arrives late Thursday into Friday as cold front approaches from the west, driven by a shortwave diving out of the northern Rockies. Precipitation will be all liquid with temps well into the 60s, with some limited thunder potential confined to near the Gulf Stream. There is still a healthy amount of spread on forecast rain amounts with the Euro ensemble sitting on the wetter side of the envelope and the Canadian ensembles making up the dry side. The forecast trend overall has been shifting towards modestly higher amounts, with the odds of at least a quarter inch now up to 70-80% and half an inch at around 50%. Still think these might be a bit generous given the consistent under- performance of precipitation as of late with ongoing drought conditions, but at least measurable rainfall is likely and maintained categorical PoPs.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure will slide south through the Gulf Coast States today, then shift east into the Gulf and Southwestern Atlantic tonight. Locally, this will allow northwesterly winds to become southwesterly by this evening. Those southwesterly winds will begin to increase tonight. With strengthening winds aloft, LLWS impacts will be possible late tonight, especially after 06z.

A very dry airmass in place throughout the column is expected to support VFR conditions over the next 24 hr.

Outlook: Gusty southerly winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. LLWS impacts will continue to be possible during this time as well. The cold front will bring an increased risk of SHRA and sub-VFR conditions Wednesday night through Friday. Additionally, a northerly wind shift can be expected along the front as it moves through on Friday.

MARINE

Conditions will continue to gradually improve across the waters this morning. Latest obs still show NW winds 10-20 kt gusting 25-30 kt, but seas have dropped slightly to 6-8 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-6 ft south. No changes were made to previous headlines, with SCAs for Pamlico Sound and southern waters slated to drop off around sunrise as winds continue to weaken. Northwesterly winds will continue to subside today, gradually backing southwesterly and then increasing overnight as quick- moving low pressure races across the Great Lakes.

Outlook: Offshore waters likely to remain poor through late week as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front forecast to cross late this week into the weekend. SCA conditions likely to be back across waters south of Oregon Inlet and Pamlico Sound by daytime Wednesday. There is a low risk of Gales (around 10-20%) over the Gulf Stream waters Wed afternoon, but this is too low to warrant any Watch headlines this package. Poor boating conditions likely to persist for offshore waters into Friday before the front crosses the region.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.