textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters between Oregon Inlet and Cape Lookout

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front on Monday evening poses a risk of severe weather.

Marine...Winds and seas improve through today before a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions returns this evening/tonight

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An impressive upper level trough will dig across the Plains on Sunday and will become more negatively tilted as it moves east across the Mississippi River Valley on Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through Sunday and into Monday. A pre-frontal surface trough will develop through the day on Sunday, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms and backing low level winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase through Monday and peak with the FROPA Monday night. This front will produce a strongly forced line of convection, and with ample deep layer shear and 0-3 km SRH at play, there's potential for damaging wind gusts and a few brief isolated tornadoes. Destabilization could be significantly inhibited due to cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms associated with the pre- frontal surface trough, but even meager instability could still produce strong to severe thunderstorms with the FROPA. So, this will be a highly conditional high shear/low CAPE scenario. SPC has all of Eastern North Carolina outlined in a 15% chance for severe weather, and the NSSL ML Total Severe Probability guidance shows a 15-30% chance.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Areas of fog has expanded across much of ENC this morning, most concentrated near rivers and creeks with a cold air over warmer waters. With temperatures at or just below freezing, may see minor freezing fog on elevated surfaces. The fog will dissipate fairly quickly this morning with conditions quickly improving between 9-10 am. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF period under mainly clear skies.

High pressure slides offshore today allowing winds to veer through the morning hours, becoming southerly this afternoon and SSW by evening. Gradients tighten a bit this afternoon with a system passing across the northern Mid-Atlantic states and could see gusts around 20-25 kt.

Outlook...Pred VFR conditions expected through Saturday. The next frontal system is expected to impact ENC Sunday through Monday bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Conditions have significantly improved over the past few hours as high pressure builds in. Conditions will remain sub-SCA through most of today as the winds veer from NE to SW. Once they return to the SW this evening, a brief uptick is expected. SW winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, mainly across the Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout. Seas will respond by building back to 4-6 ft across the central waters. Occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible north of Oregon Inlet and south of Cape Lookout, but this is expected to be brief and isolated. Conditions will improve by late tonight with winds becoming westerly and decreasing to 15-20 kt by sunrise.

Outlook: Pleasant conditions will stick around through Saturday but deteriorate once again on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front forecast to cross the area on Monday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156.