textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased NE winds a bit for Sat.

Updated 18/06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and humid conditions will ensue today into the beginning of next week.

2) Occasional periods of unsettled weather returns through early next week.

3) Increased marine impacts mid week as high waves and potentially strong winds impact the OBX.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS and sfc high pressure ridging in from the north will keep generally dry conditions across ENC through friday afternoon. One last morning in the 60s before TD's surge more on Friday as a prefrontal trough and cold front approach as high pres cont to move further offshore. Warm and humid will cont through at least early next week as PW's rise back above climo.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The aforementioned cold front and trough expected to move into and through ENC through Sat. Sfc convergence and lowering heights aloft as shortwave energy rides over the upper ridge along with increasing moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and perhaps a few storms late today, and esp this evening. Front slowly sags into srn portions of ENC Sat, with best chances for showers and iso thunderstorms for srn areas on Sat. Fcst a bit more muddled beyond Sat as it will depend on the front location, but at this time it appears typical seabreeze showers/storms Sunday into early next week as return flow develops once again.

Key Message 3...Next week, a strong high pressure system becomes anchored acrs New England and ern Canada, while at the same time low pres develops off the Mid Atlantic coast, tightening the pressure gradient along the mid- atlantic and northeast. This will likely usher in stronger NE winds to the region. Given it is 5-6 days out, there is still much uncertainty, with the 18/00Z GFS/ECMWF a bit weaker with this solution, while the AIFS cont to indicate a stronger system. For now there is good model consensus on at least higher waves along the Outer Banks mid- next week. This will be worth keeping an eye on, as a long fetch of strong winds could bring higher wave energy towards vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks. It is too soon to determine specifics at this point and trends will have to be monitored in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR mainly SKC through this morning. Inc mid and high clouds this afternoon and esp this evening, with some showers and perhaps a storm or two developing after around 6PM, with best chances for wrn terminals. Later TAF fcsts may include precip mention tonight.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): A cold front is progged to push south on Sat, which may cont to produce showers and storms along it, with best chances southern portions of ENC. Higher moisture lingers Sunday into early next week keeping shower chances in play and thus ocnl sub VFR conditions.

MARINE

Return sswrly breezes with speeds of 5-10 kt, ocnl higher gusts. These swrly winds cont through early afternoon, with seas remaining 2-3ft nearshore, with 4 ft sets offshore. Cold front drops into nrn portions of the waters and sounds late today, then sinks south through the rest of the area later tonight but speeds remain light (5-15 kt)

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday):The cold front will be along or south of the Crystal Coast on Sat with winds picking up a bit more behind it in the 10-20 kt range for all waters and sounds by Sat with sea inc 3-5 ft. Winds and seas should remain below SCA however through the weekend. Sunday winds veer to srly by late day, then become nwerly behind yet another fropa on Monday, though speeds remain generally in the 5-15 kt range Sun into Mon with seas 2-4 ft. NE Winds and seas begin to build Tuesday PM or Wed as pressure gradient tightens as we are sandwiched between a strong high to our north and a non- tropical low developing offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.