textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes through the period.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A return to more typical summertime pattern through much of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge and Bermuda high pressure will be centered off the coast through Saturday, then becomes suppressed late in the weekend as shortwave energy pushes across the mid- Atlantic with more of a zonal pattern developing next week with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area. Precip chances will be near climo each day with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon, then dissipating with loss of heating during the evening. The severe threat appears minimal through the period with limited shear and forcing.

A gradual warming trend will continue through the period as well with highs in the lower 90s inland through the weekend, then warming in to the mid 90s next week. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat Risk increase to around 60-80% Monday through Thursday of next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Fog and stratus has expanded to cover much of the inland rtes early this morning bringing areas of LIFR with a few locations as low as VLIFR. Conditions will gradually improve through the morning hours with VFR conditions expected to return by late morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms then expected to develop this afternoon across inland rtes as the sea breeze pushes inland bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions. A similar set up with mainly clear skies and light winds will bring a chance for fog and stratus again late Thursday night.

Of note, AMD NOT SKED was appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing communications issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning.

MARINE

The Bermuda high will remain off the coast into early next week bringing predominantly S to SW winds around 5-15 kt with seas around 2-4 ft. Somewhat stronger winds possible during the late afternoon and evening hours Friday through the weekend as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times.

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf Stream are expected to dissipate late this afternoon with quieter conditions into Friday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday into early next week as a trough of low pressure rotates around the Bermuda High and off the NC coast.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.