textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and warm today ahead of a backdoor cold front. A dry backdoor cold front will push through tonight bringing near normal temps with continued dry conditions over the weekend.

2) Next rain chance arrives by mid next week with a low pressure system moving out of the Deep South.

Marine: The backdoor front will bring a surge of northerly SCA winds and seas tonight into Saturday evening.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure remains centered over the Mid- Atlantic with a coastal trough off the coast. The high is supplying calm winds and clear skies, allowing for areas of dense fog to develop. This fog will be around through the AM commute today, and will contemplate a DFA to account for this over the next several hours.

Hts/thicknesses build further today and temps climbing back to ~10 degrees above climo with highs upr 70s to near 80 inland to low 70s OBX. A reinforcing back door dry cool front will push through tonight bringing temps down closer to climo (low 70s most locales) over the weekend. Low temps will also remain above normal through much of the period with readings in the 50s. Normal lows for most of the FA are in the 45-50 range now.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pres ridge finally begins to break down by Tuesday and esp Wednesday as next potential low pres area and cold front make it's way into the region on active sub tropical jet. Some convergence on timing with the 30/00Z model suite with pops inc a bit during the mid week time frame. This system appearsit will finally bring beneficial widespread rain to the area.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Inc dense fog/LIFR conditions overnight for most interior taf sites as REFS guidance show around 50-70% probabilities for <1/2 sm, and obs indicate this is becoming more likely, so have this in fcst through 13-14z. The fog should mix out mid to late morning Friday with pred VFR conditions and light and variable winds.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): Expect VFR conditions expected over the weekend into early next week as a backdoor cold front pushes through the area Friday night and strong high pressure builds in from the north over the weekend into early next week.

MARINE

Issued SCA for coastal waters starting tonight with surge of nrly winds. Oncly ocnl gusts and brief on the sounds and Alligator so will exclude from suire of SCA. Winds and seas diminish Sat night.

Outlook (Fri night through Tuesday): A backdoor cold front will push across the waters Friday night with SCA conditions likely returning across the coastal waters, diminishing Sat night. Conditions gradually improve early next week, though next rounds of high seas as early as Tue with next system approaching from the s and w.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-158.