textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure dominates most of this week with warm temperatures and dry conditions. A cold front moves through this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 3 AM Mon...High pressure builds crests overhead this morning then shifts offshore late. Sunny skies and warm temps expected with highs slightly above climo, ranging from 55-60, cooles on the OBX. Light winds veer from nerly this morning to srly this afternoon, though remain below 10 mph.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 3 AM Mon...Mild conditions expected tonight with lows in the low 40s interior to around 50 on the beaches. An increase in moisture along with the warmer temps will bring a threat for fog as winds will be light to calm overnight. Best chances for fog will be along and west of Hwy 17, and have included patchy fog mention for now. Later shifts will have to monitor for dense fog potential some areas, as HREF probs for vsby < .5 mile are up to 50% for the inland coastal plain counties.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 3 AM Mon

Tuesday through Wednesday...Gradually strengthening southwesterly flow will prevail through mid-week. Temperatures will climb in response to this WAA regime, with highs increasing to the upper-60s Tuesday and around 70 Wednesday (low 60s the beaches and OBX). A weak low traveling along a coastal trough could produce some light showers on the ctrl and srn OBX, but bulk of moisture should remain out over the gulf stream and pops on OBX remain 20% or less.

Thursday through Friday...A dry backdoor cold front will push across ENC Wed night as a shortwave trough swings quickly across the mid- Atlantic. Not much change in temps as front will weaken and quickly move back north on Thu. Temps remain very warm for the 2nd week of Jan with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s interior to the low 60s beachfront.

Saturday through Sunday...Cold front slowly approaches this weekend but timing differences in strength of attendand shortwave trough moving through the TN Valley and eventually Mid Atlantic keep pops only in the 30-40% range at this time. Temps remain well above normal ahead of this front, with highs in the 70s inland and 60s coast.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1220 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure currently centered over the mid- Atlantic, expanding over the coastal Carolinas. Mid and high clouds overnight and Monday as weak embedded shortwave in northwesterly flow traverses the Appalachians. Light/calm winds allowed us to radiationally cool despite the high clouds, but a dry column precludes a fog threat. Monday high shifts offshore and we get southerly return flow that moistens the lower levels. This brings a fog and low ceiling threat for Tuesday morning.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions are expected beyond Tuesday as dry cold front moves through Wednesday and high pressure builds in to end the work week.

MARINE

As of 3 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Good boating conditions through Tuesday morning.

- Strong SCA winds and high seas on the Gulf Stream waters Tue night through early Wed amid inc southwest flow.

- Lighter winds Thu into Fri as high pressure builds in.

Winds veer from from NE this morning to S late today with seas in the 2-4 ft range. Winds remain 5-15 kt through tonight.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Southwest will strengthen through Tuesday afternoon, reaching strong SCA range Tuesday evening through early Wed. With warm swrly flow, good mixing on the Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet expected, and a SCA has been issued. With cold nearshore waters north of Oregon Inlet and on the sounds, a strong marine inversion will be present and thus winds remain in the 15-20 kt range or less. Steep wind wave on the Gulf waters will peak in the 5-8 ft range Tue night, subsiding below 6 ft by Wed afternoon.

Thursday through Friday...High pres builds with light winds and benign seas.

Saturday through Sunday...A strong cold front approaches this weekend with an increase in southwesterly winds, possibly reaching or exceeding SCA range on the coastal waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.