textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marine headlines have been adjusted based on the latest wind and wave guidance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and mostly dry conditions continue today, along with an increased fire danger for all of ENC.

2) Low-end thunderstorm risk this evening into Monday afternoon.

3) Risk of dangerous heat later this week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Toasty, above normal temperatures will flirt with records across inland zones this afternoon as ENC resides under notably warm low-level thicknesses in a southwest low- level flow regime. See the CLIMATE section below for additional information on today's records.

With ongoing drought conditions, today's heat will continue to support elevated fire concerns areawide. In coordination with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect until 8 PM this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will slide south through Virginia today and is forecast to reach NE NC by late this evening. Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible along the front tonight, generally in the Albemarle Sound/HWY 264 corridor, but the environment will become less favorable by this time, therefore minimizing the severe threat. The front will then continue to move south across ENC tomorrow, veering the winds to the NE through the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop tomorrow afternoon south of HWY 70, but modest instability and weak shear will keep the severe threat at bay.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence is increasing for dangerous heat to impact the area later this week and into this weekend (Thursday - Saturday). An increase in humidity will make the feels like temperatures soar into the 100-105+ degree range, which could eventually lead to a Heat Advisory being needed for portions of the area away from the immediate coast.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the period. For the rest of this afternoon, we'll see gusty southwest winds (15-20 kt) with scattered high clouds and diurnal cu. Tonight, a cold front will approach the area from the north, veering winds to the north and supporting a 15-35% chance of scattered showers and weak thunderstorms in the Albemarle Sound/HWY 264 corridor. Winds will be out of the northeast areawide by tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop around 18z tomorrow south of HWY 70, but modest instability and weak shear will keep the severe threat at bay. Any mention of precipitation has been kept out of this TAF cycle, but chances for seeing anything will be highest for OAJ (25%). Low stratus may develop tomorrow night/early Tuesday with a more stable airmass behind the front expected to keep the area mostly dry through mid-week.

MARINE

SW winds at 10-20 kt with gusts to 15-25 kt will persist through this evening before relaxing a bit ahead of a southbound cold front that will veer the winds to the north overnight and into tomorrow. The latest guidance favors a quicker drop off of SCA winds tonight, so remaining headlines for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and Pamlico Sound have been adjusted accordingly. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will be out of the NE at 15-20 kt but gusts should remain below SCA criteria. 3-5 ft seas are expected across the 0-20 nm zones with 5-7 ft seas developing north of Cape Hatteras in the 20-60 nm zones tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure will move in on Tuesday with good boating conditions expected for the next several days.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 06/07 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 98/2008 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 90/1988 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 100/2008 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 94/2008 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1914, 2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 99/2001 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ158.