textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Typical summertime conditions are expected today. This will be followed up by a series of upper level systems that will push across the area bringing unsettled weather through the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/

As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Increased heat risk today

- A few marginally severe thunderstorms possible along the seabreeze this afternoon and evening

A modest south to southwest LLJ will develop today east of the low- level trough in the lee of the Appalachians. This will help draw a deeper layer of moisture into the Carolinas, with PWATs forecast to reach 2" by this afternoon. Meanwhile, heating of a very moist boundary layer should support MLCAPE climbing to 2000-3000 j/kg ahead of the seabreeze. With ridging aloft, flow in the mid and upper levels will be fairly weak, which will keep effective shear on the weaker side (ie. <20kt). This should set the stage for a typical July afternoon with isolated to scattered pulse convection developing along the developing seabreeze. Despite weak shear, the moderate to strong instability appears supportive of some taller cores where low- level convergence is maximized. Based on the forecast environment, the most sustained cores should be capable of 40-60 mph wind gusts and hail up to half inch size. Slow storm motions plus increased moisture within the column should allow some heavier rainfall rates to develop beneath the strongest cores as well. However, the overall lack of stronger lift and a lower risk of sustained convection should keep the risk of flooding at a minimum.

Dewpoints this morning are a few degrees higher than this time yesterday, and with a moist southerly flow off the Atlantic, I expect dewpoints will end up peaking higher than they did yesterday. Low-level thicknesses are forecast to take a bump up today as well, which spells an increased risk of 105+ heat indices. Based on this, the Heat Advisory that is currently in effect continues to look solid for our area, and no changes to the headline are planned at this time.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Isolated to scattered seabreeze convection should be shifting further inland away from ENC by this evening, with dry conditions for most. Later tonight, continued low-mid level moisture advection may support the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially along the coast. Otherwise, a warm southerly flow and partly to mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures very mild.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 3 PM Monday...A similar set up is expected for Wednesday, with a similar threat of strong to severe storms over the coastal plain. ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE coupled with meager bulk shear will limit the overall severe threat. SPC has the far western portions of the CWA in a marginal risk, mainly for the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. Elevated PWATs will continue to support a risk for heavy rainfall and isolated flooding, with WPC having a marginal ERO for the western forecast area on Wednesday.

With increasing thicknesses due to the building ridge, the warm temps are forecast to continue into Wednesday with MaxTs in the low 90s inland from the coast and peak heat index values around 100-105.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring an unsettled pattern across the region. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall. WPC currently has marginal EROs for Days 3-5 for at least portions of the forecast area. At this time, instability and shear parameters do not look overly impressive for severe storms to develop but could see a few storms producing strong wind gusts. Temps expected to be near or a couple of degrees below climo.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/... As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Transient areas of MVFR CIGs through early Tuesday morning

- Slight increase in TSRA risk today (20-40% chance)

Low-level moisture advection off the Atlantic appears to be supporting transient areas of MVFR CIGs along the coast at this time. Thus far, these CIGs haven't made much progress inland towards any of the ENC TAF sites. Some guidance suggests some of these low clouds may try to shift inland through early Tuesday morning. Confidence in this occurring is low, and I've opted to continue running with VFR TAFs overnight. We'll continue to monitor trends in case this risk were to increase. Otherwise, a fairly typical seabreeze TSRA risk is expected today. Guidance is showing the strongest signal over southwest sections of ENC, and in light of this, I decided to add a PROB30 mention at KOAJ and KISO. Elsewhere, confidence is lower, and I'll continue to keep TSRA out of the TAFs for now. Where TSRA occur, there will be a risk of sub VFR conditions, 30-50kt wind gusts, and small hail. In the wake of the seabreeze, continued low-mid level moisture advection may lead to a slightly higher risk of MVFR CIGs Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 3 PM Monday...A series of mid-level systems will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible most mornings.

MARINE

SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 7 PM Monday...Conditions will improve through the overnight with winds diminishing to 10-15 kt late. Expect to see a tightening pressure gradient Tuesday between the inland thermal trough and offshore high pressure with daytime heating bringing winds back to around 10-20 kt. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft tonight and continue through tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 3 PM Monday...High pressure remains centered over the Wern Atlantic this week with a series of systems pushing across the area. This will keep gradients somewhat pinched with SW winds around 10-20 kt (occasionally higher gusts possible), highest in the late afternoon and evening with thermal gradient peaking. Seas generally around 3-4 ft during the long term period, however the dominant period through at least midweek will be on the shorter wind wave side, 5-6sec. So, expect bumpy 3-4ft wind waves out of the S/SW on top of 1-2ft long period swell on the order of 13-15sec out of the east.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-231.