textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

An area of low pressure will move northeast across the coastal waters of ENC early this morning. A strong cold front will then move through the area this afternoon. High pressure briefly builds in on Saturday. The next cold front moves through Sunday, followed by an even stronger area of high pressure early next week. The next in a series of cold fronts moves through on Tuesday. High pressure then sets up shop offshore over the Christmas Holiday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 715 AM Friday... Cut PoPs early this morning as precip has moved offshore. Tweaked PoP timing and extent for cold front precip later this morning into the early afternoon, still capping at schc to low end chc as it is expected to weaken with decreased forcing once entering ENC.

Previous Discussion...As of 230 AM Friday...

Key Messages

- Thunderstorm risk decreases around sunset this morning

- Gusty winds of 30-40 mph likely from mid-morning into this afternoon

- Turning noticeably cooler and drier by tonight

Regional radar this morning depicts a couple of important features for today's forecast. The first is a convectively- induced meso-low, currently lifting quickly NE off the OBX. This feature, and the associated convection, should shift away from the OBX by sunrise this morning. Prior to then, there is still a conditional severe thunderstorm risk, with the strongest cells capable of 50+ mph winds and brief tornadoes. Overall, though, the greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms looks to remain offshore with this event.

The other feature of note this morning is a cold front, which currently stretches from West Virginia south through the western Carolinas. This front is forecast to move through ENC this afternoon. A broken band of showers and thunderstorms associated with this front may survive to the coast, but should be on a weakening trend as the stronger frontal forcing shifts off to the NE away from the area. Ahead of the front, we still expect an area of deeper mixing to overlap with moderate winds aloft, supporting a period of 30-40 mph southwesterly wind gusts. Any showers that accompany the front may help to mix down some stronger wind gusts as well.

Behind the front, winds are expected to quickly diminish as high pressure builds in with much cooler and drier conditions.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 130 AM Friday...

A cooler and drier post-frontal airmass will reside over the eastern Carolinas on Saturday, with slightly below normal highs expected. Saturday night will feature chilly temperatures once again, but potentially not as cold as tonight thanks to a developing return flow with high pressure shifting offshore.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 130 AM Friday...

Key Messages

- Early week cold snap gives way to mild and mostly dry conditions over the Christmas Holiday

An active, but not necessarily wet, pattern is still expected over much of next week. A cold front will scoot through the area on Sunday, followed by sprawling high pressure building in behind it. Southerly flow ahead of the front will allow temps to quickly rebound from Saturday's cooler readings. This will be short-lived, however, as a much cooler airmass builds in late Sunday into Sunday night. Highs on Monday may struggle to get out of the 40s, which is a solid 10 degrees below normal for mid to late December. Widespread mid to upper 20s are then expected Monday night. Of note, with high pressure overhead, some of the typically colder spots could see lows in the low 20s.

The next in a series of fronts comes through late Tuesday or Tuesday evening. This front may have a bit more moisture to work with, and guidance has trended up slightly regarding the chance of showers. Rainfall amounts look light (<0.10"). This front doesn't look to have as much cold air behind it. Plus, the flow looks to flip back to southerly fairly quickly in its wake. The net effect is temperatures moderating from Monday, even at night.

Over the Christmas holiday, the storm track looks to shift back to the north, keeping the eastern Carolinas in south to southwest flow. This is a milder regime, and ensemble guidance suggests highs in the 50s and 60s for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Nighttime temperatures are expected to be at, or above, normal. A coastal trough moving inland may lead to a few rain showers on Christmas Day, otherwise the latter half of next week looks dry.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 610 AM Friday...

Key Messages

- Sub-VFR conditions continue this morning with showers and thunderstorms shifted offshore

- South-southwesterly Low Level Wind Shear expected through daybreak today

- The front will push through around mid-day Friday with clearing skies but expect wind gusts around 25-35 kt in westerly post frontal flow.

Widespread MVFR through much of this morning. The cold front is progged to push across ENC later this morning into the afternoon with skies clearing pretty quickly behind it from west to east.

A strengthening low level jet to around 50-60 kt will bring LLWS concerns through daybreak today but expected improving conditions after 14z.

Winds will become gusty today as gradients tighten ahead of the front and expect gusts around 20-25 kt inland to 30-40 kt along the coast, but showers along the front may briefly transport even stronger gusts to the sfc. Winds become westerly behind the front and could see gusts around 25-35 kt Friday afternoon as deeper mixing ensues. This may bring crosswind concerns at EWN runway 4R/32L.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR through the weekend into early next week as high pressure returns across the region.

MARINE

As of 230 AM Friday...

Key Messages

- Moderate to strong southwesterly winds, and hazardous seas, to continue into this afternoon

Low pressure will continue to lift quickly NE through the central coastal waters early this morning, and will be accompanied by thunderstorms capable of 40-50kt winds and waterspouts. Outside of thunderstorms, southerly winds of 25-35kt are expected. Elsewhere, winds of 15-25kt are expected early this morning. For all areas, southwesterly winds of 20-35kt will then be possible from mid- morning into the afternoon hours. Given the potential, all marine headlines will remain as-is for now. However, some marine headlines may be able to be cancelled early or downgraded depending on how winds evolve in advance of a cold front approaching from the west. That front will clear the ENC waters by late-afternoon or early this evening. Noticeably lighter winds are then expected tonight through Saturday as high pressure builds in. By Saturday night, winds will begin to build once again as yet another front approaches from the west.

For the coastal waters, buoys currently show seas of 6-10ft at 7-8s. Seas are expected to continue to build another 1-2ft, with periods peaking at 8-10s. Seas will begin to lay down tonight, falling to 3- 5ft by Saturday morning. Seas will lay down further, falling to 2- 4ft by Saturday afternoon. This will make Saturday the best boating day of the weekend.

Outlook: A series of cold fronts will move through the ENC waters from Sunday through Tuesday, each one with a bump up in winds and seas.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

As of 230 AM Friday...

Periods of moderate to strong southwesterly winds are likely to continue into this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. This will lead to an increased risk of large, breaking waves for beaches from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras. In addition to the dangerous surf conditions, the strength of the wind-driven swell may be enough to cause some minor ocean overwash and beach erosion, especially along the more vulnerable stretches of the coast along Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands. A High Surf Advisory, and Coastal Flood Advisory, continue through early this afternoon.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ196- 204-205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ204-205. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ131- 136-137-230-231. Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ135. Gale Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158.