textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Weak front crosses the area this evening, stalling offshore to the south. Another low pressure system will develop and travel along the boundary, impacting the Carolinas Friday morning into Saturday. The front will remain stalled off the southern NC coast behind this system leading to unsettled weather through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

- A brief wintry mix possible across extreme NW sections of ENC Friday morning

- Below normal temperatures to continue into this weekend

A subtle, and dampening, shortwave is forecast to translate east from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic Coast over the next 24- 36 hours. Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold front will slide south through ENC this evening, then stall offshore tonight. A weak area of low pressure is then forecast to develop along the stalled front, scooting quickly east to the south of ENC on Friday. North of the stalled front, a quick-hitting round of WAA-driven precipitation is expected to overspread the area late tonight through Friday evening. In addition to the strong WAA, strong isentropic ascent and modest low-mid level frontogenesis within a deep layer of moisture should support a period of moderate precipitation rates on Friday, with liquid equivalent amounts of 0.50"-1.50" expected. The highest rainfall totals (1"+) are expected along the coast where the greatest moisture and strongest low-level forcing will overlap.

Across the far northwestern sections of ENC, temperatures may cool enough to support a very brief period of wintry precipitation. Forecast soundings show a deep, but just above freezing, isothermal layer, with low-level temps near or just above freezing. At face value, this suggests a cold rain, or perhaps a brief period of freezing rain, where temps are below 32. However, if the isothermal layer ends up slightly cooler than forecast, the precip type would tend to favor snow, even where temps are just above 32. For now, the forecast will reflect a rain/snow mix across extreme western Pitt and Martin Counties from 4am-9am Friday morning. Given the marginal thermal profiles with this event, no winter-related impacts are expected. Even in the scenario where temps aloft are slightly cooler, the residence time of temps near freezing appears to only support a max of a dusting to half an inch of snow accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Temperatures will be well below normal on Friday thanks to widespread clouds, precip, and northeasterly flow.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 130 PM Thursday...

A frontal boundary is forecast to remain stalled just south of ENC on Saturday. Given the close proximity, and various upper level waves moving through the region, there's the potential for areas of very light precipitation at times, especially across the southern half of ENC. Guidance differs on how much dry air can work in behind Friday's system, which leads to lower confidence in where/if light precip will occur on Saturday. Where precipitation occurs, temperatures should remain warm enough for all liquid, but we'll closely monitor this in case drier low-level air can work in, leading to lower wet-bulb temps and perhaps a conditional risk of some light wintry precip.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 0230 Thursday...

Key Messages

- Unsettled pattern through at least Monday - Drier midweek

The forecast becomes more unsettled as a series of lows will move along a stalled boundary offshore and several shortwaves move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances in the forecast into early next week. More uniform temps across the FA SAT as the offshore low pulls high pressure over ENC from NW to SE; MaxTs upper 40s inland, low 50s along the coast. Slight chance/low end chance PoPs will stick around on Sunday (highest along the coast) with highs in the low to mid 50s.

The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern half of the CWA with lingering PoPs with passage of cold front expected Monday. Dry conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure builds back in at the SFC behind Monday's front and troughing aloft that plagues ECONUS this weekend pushes offshore. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s MON/TUE with widespread sub- freezing MinTs away from the immediate each night, coldest MON night/TUE am.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 640 PM Thu...

Key Messages

- Increasing chances for rain and sub-VFR conditions late tonight into Fri morning

Widespread VFR prevails this evening as pronounced band of high clouds continues to stream over much of the southeast and Carolinas ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Cloud bases will lower further through tonight as frontal boundary and weak wave of low pressure nears from the west. VFR conditions are likely to hold on until just before dawn when more widespread rainfall is expected to begin, with a collapse to IFR to LIFR by 13z and lasting through the rest of the daytime hours. Rain will be accompanied by a steady north to northeasterly wind at around 10 kt.

Outlook: The next systems will move through ENC Saturday with another one impacting the area early next week bringing additional risks of widespread sub-VFR conditions. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible as well.

MARINE

As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

- Elevated winds and seas this evening through Friday evening

- Strong, potentially gale-force, winds possible Monday

A cold front will slide south through the area this evening, then stall south of the Crystal Coast tonight. A weak area of low pressure is then forecast to ride along the front on Friday, moving away from the coast by Friday night. The tightening pressure gradient north of the low appears supportive of a period of 20-25kt winds and elevated seas, mainly north of Ocracoke Inlet. While a bit marginal, the setup still appears worth keeping a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the central and northern coastal waters from this evening through Friday evening. Guidance did trend down with winds, though, and the forecast reflects a slight adjustment down. Lighter winds are then expected on Saturday as high pressure builds in.

Seas are forecast to build to 4-7 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet through tonight. South of there, seas of 3-5ft are expected by tonight. For all waters, seas should lay down to 2-4ft by late Saturday.

Outlook: A series of coastal lows will move through this weekend, bringing solid chances for rain. On the backside of MON's low, strong Nerly winds will develop. SCAs likely over all ENC waters, inside and outside, with Gales possible for all coastal waters and maybe larger sounds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Saturday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.