textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend this weekend, followed by potentially record breaking above normal conditions developing next week.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Building low level thicknesses today through the weekend will allow warming temps to near and slightly above normal. By Sunday afternoon, stout surface high rotates off the Mid- Atlantic coast as anomalously strong ridging anchors itself aloft, veering local winds more easterly Sunday and then becoming SE early next week allowing further warming. Highs will climb into the 90s by next week, with potentially multiple days of records being threatened starting Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Forecast continues to be dry for the foreseeable future. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying of fuels through the long term. This will lead to the potential for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are forecast.

Worsening drought conditions are possible by early next week as soils continue to dry after a soaking rain last weekend. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Patchy fog has developed to the N and W of the area with PGV showing shallow fog showing up as MVFR on obs. Have 1hr tempo group here. VFR with mostly SKC. Light NEerly winds early veer through the day to become SWerly overnight tonight. Of note is some seafog and stratus working SW from 40mi off the VA coast which could lead to reduced flight cats for NOBX terminals through the period.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a dry backdoor front working through the area late tomorrow with a more summertime pattern taking shape in warming Serly flow regime in its wake. No flight restrictions expected with tomorrow's FROPA.

MARINE

# --- Update --- # Seafog seen on satellite working SW from ~40+nm off the VA coast. Could reduce VIS to as low as 1mi over Nern waters should it not burn off through the day

Previous discussion... Small craft conditions continue across all the coastal waters as seas remain at 6-8 feet across all offshore waters. NE winds are steadily easing, now down to 10-15 kt with only infrequent gusts to 25 kt. This will continue to trend downward through today, with winds eventually becoming light and variable tonight and then turning SW to W on Saturday ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. A brief jump of winds near 25 kt is possible immediately behind this front late Saturday, but likely less than 6 hours.

Seas will still take some time to subside, falling below 6 feet first across Onslow Bay on Sat AM and then remaining offshore waters on Sunday.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week, although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.