textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coastal plain, with potential for light snow/sleet accumulations with the main concern of icing.

Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound late Fri night into Sat.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An Arctic front will push through the area late Friday with a low pressure system passing through ENC this weekend, bringing a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain to ENC, especially inland. Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coastal plain.

2) Cold airmass builds in behind the system early next week with below normal temperatures with highs in the 35-45 degree range and lows 15-25.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An arctic cold front will push through the area late Friday, with areas of light rain ahead of it during the day. Temps will be in the 50s and precip will be all liquid. Arctic high pressure builds into the area from the north Friday night and sets the stage for overrunning wintry mix on Sat as isentropic ascent increases and wet bulbing keeps surface temps only in the 30 degree range or so throughout the day inland. Mix of snow and sleet will likely break out across ENC late morning but increasing into the afternoon and evening hours. Limited accums expected during the day as QPF amounts will be quite light, amounting to only several hundredths of an inch. However, with cold air and ground temps, some slick spots will likely begin to develop on some of the elevated surfaces away from the coast where temps hover around in the upper 20s to lower 30s much of the day.

By Saturday night, low pressure will develop along the stalled front just offshore and begin to more northeastward. The big change with this forecast is Sat night into Sun, where now the most likely track of the low tracks through ENC instead of staying offshore, per most guidance, this track brings a substantial warm nose through all of ENC overnight Sat, shutting off any chance for snow accums other than some trace/light amounts Sat. At this time we shift our attention to freezing rain, as warm nose inc aloft and surface temps remain at or below freezing for interior zones with CAD still in place. Specific precip types are still a challenge as the depth of these layers and the subsequent precipitation types/amounts will be influenced by inland penetration of sfc warm layer and exact low track, though consensus seems to be that coastal areas east of Hwy 17 turn over to rain quickly, limiting ice accums, while deeper inland and esp Duplin through Martin County may remain below freezing through much of Sunday, possibly with significant icing here. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coastal plain, with the main concern being the potential for sig ice accumulations. Continue to stay tuned to the forecast over the next few days with the increasing threat for wintry weather.

Minor coastal impacts will be possible, with potential minor waters level rises and rough surf (north of Cape Hatteras).

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Arctic high pressure will build in early next week behind the departing low with cold airmass ensuing. Temperatures will be quite a bit below normal, with highs in the 35-45 degree range, and lows in the 15-25 degree range. Wind chill values will possibly dip down to or below 15 degrees at times early to mid next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR flight cats are forecast through the 24H TAF period. Light winds will be accompanied by increasing mid and high clouds overnight. Expect light Werly winds and scattered high clouds through the early evening. Near the end of the period, sky cover will increase and CIGs will drop, although they are expected to remain above FL050.

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions will continue into Friday, but flight cats begin deteriorating in the afternoon with increasing chances of SubVFR flight cats FRI afternoon. An extended period of sub-VFR conditions is likely this weekend as a significant winter storm impacts the area. All winter precip types are possible through the weekend with inland terminals expected to receive the greatest impacts due to ice accumulation.

MARINE

Latest obs show SW-NW winds 5-15 kt, though stronger across the outer central waters near the coastal trough. Iso to sct showers will continue along the coast for the next few hours. Light to moderate winds cont through tonight with seas mainly 2-4 ft.

Friday through Monday: Gale Watch issued for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound from late Friday night into Saturday, with strong N winds developing behind the front. An arctic front and low pressure system will then impact the waters this weekend, which will likely bring strong northerly Gale and SCA conditions Sat. Winds become E-SE Sat night then swrly on Sunday as low pressure tracks just inland from the coast. Some SCA winds may linger for the warmer Gulf waters with the inc sw flow Sun.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NCZ029-044-079-090-091. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for AMZ135-150. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for AMZ152-154-156-158.