textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Widely scattered showers along and just inland from the coast overnight due to coastal trough.

Maintained highest thunder chances for coastal plain counties Friday with potential severe.

Raised max temps on the OBX through Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through Thursday.

2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front on Friday.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend.

Aviation: LIFR conditions possible through early Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and synoptic setups through Thursday. An amplified upper trough will be shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and open wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the week. Before that happens, low level flow is currently veering southeast to south as weak coastal trough lifts through, which is producing some widely scattered showers from Swanquarter to Jacksonville and along the southern coast. Another fog and low stratus threat tonight into Thursday morning as moistening boundary layer continues. Southerly flow Thursday, but with no forcing in place will maintain PoPs generally less than 20%. Warm Thursday with highs in the lower 80s interior to 70s beaches. Overnight lows remain above climatology, with readings in the 60s the next few nights.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Anomalous moisture and higher-than-normal instability for early November is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices inland, and where highest instability and shear will reside. If best forcing lines up with peak heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas especially west of HWY 17 Friday afternoon. Main threat would be damaging wind gusts. The front sweeps offshore late Friday with any remaining showers exiting the OBX before daybreak Sat.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with frontal passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of the normally colder spots.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

High clouds streaming over the area may complicate the evolution of aviation concerns overnight, especially as it relates to VIS. While guidance continue to point towards a risk of low stratus, it's less clear whether or not VIS will drop as much as what occurred 24 hours ago. For now, the TAFs were left mostly unchanged, but are subject to change overnight. Any low stratus should rise during the day Thursday, and may even scatter out at times. Low stratus may then redevelop Thursday evening into Thursday night as low-level moisture advection and weak lift increases ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.

Outlook: On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Some of the strongest TSRA may be accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very heavy rain and IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The northwest wind shift along the front is expected to occur Friday evening or Friday night. A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then support mainly VFR conditions.

MARINE

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters). Seas 2-5 ft will gradually build through tonight with developing SE winds and increasing swell from low pressure well offshore. Seas will build to 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore through Friday. Scattered light showers will be possible through Thursday.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): Southerly winds will cont in the 5-15 kt range, though a better chance for some advected 6+ ft seas as weak low pressure develops well offshore Friday into the weekend. Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds turning northwesterly behind the frontal passage but should cont remaining below 25 knots, though elevated seas around 6 ft or greater may cont.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.