textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased PoPs Wednesday afternoon through Thursday

KEY MESSAGES

1) The post-frontal airmass will bring cooler and drier conditions with below normal temperatures through Monday.

2) A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing gusty winds and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe.

Marine: Small Craft Advisories in effect for portions of the waters through early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...This morning's temperatures will be the coldest of the week (low 40s inland/low 50s Outer Banks) as cooler, drier air spills in behind the front that's now offshore. Today, skies will be clear and highs will be well below normal (mid/upper 60s inland/mid 60s Outer Banks). Winds shift back to the southwest tomorrow as high pressure expands across the SE. Skies will remain clear and highs will be about 10 degrees warmer than today (mid/upper 70s inland, low 70s Outer Banks).

KEY MESSAGE 2...The pattern becomes active again by mid-week. A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday evening. At the surface, a cold front will cross the Midwest on Tuesday before stalling Wednesday/early Thursday across the Appalachians. A low will develop along this front, but there are model differences in the speed of the front and the strength and track of the low. General consensus is that the front will cross ENC late Thursday afternoon/evening.

Isolated showers could start as early as Wednesday night with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. The latest NSSL severe probs show a 10-30% chance of severe storms with greatest chances being near the coast. Given the favorable FROPA timing of late afternoon/evening, ample bulk shear (60+ kt) and sufficient instability, a few strong to potentially severe storms will be possible. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front could dampen destabilization and decrease the severe threat, but it's still too far out to determine coverage.

In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW winds with gusts to approximately 30 mph inland and 35-40 mph along the coast.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Low clouds continue to pull away from the area leaving just about all of ENC under VFR conditions as of this update with clearing skies noted along our western coastal zones pushing east. However, this will lead to the forecast challenge for tonight which will be a threat for fog. Off to the west where a combination of clear skies, ample low level moisture, and calm winds has persisted the longest, a mixed bag of patchy MVFR to LIFR visibility has been noted. With this airmass pushing east into ENC current forecast has at least a brief period of decoupling tonight allowing for some ground fog to develop across the terminals. Have kept in the inherited 5SM BR through about 6AM with tempo groups for IFR between 2-5AM across the temrinals given some uncertainty with how widespread this ground fog will be. Either way minimal impacts to operations is anticipated with the approaching ground fog. As we near daybreak forecast calls for mixing to increase thus ending any fog threat with VFR conditions forecast across all of ENC through the rest of the period with clear skies and NWerly winds ~10G15kt through peak heating.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR flight conditions should persist into early next week.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet until 2 PM today for lingering 25+ kt northwest gusts and 6 ft seas. Tonight, winds will return to the SW and relax to 5-10 kt with seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. SW winds will increase to 10-20 kt tomorrow with seas at 2-3 ft.

Outlook: 10-20 kt SW winds will continue through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, increasing winds and seas both ahead of and behind it. There's potential for SW Gale force gusts ahead of the front for most of Thursday across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Additionally, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ135-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154.