textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the public forecast.

Remaining Gale Warnings for inside waters have been converted to SCAs. Headlines for coastal waters remain unchanged.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rapidly deepening low pressure lifts northward today, leaving cool but still breezy conditions in its wake. Low fire weather concerns this afternoon.

2) Next front approaches the region late Thursday into Friday

Marine...Gale Warnings remain in effect for all but inland rivers today. Gusty SW winds develop mid week ahead of approaching front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Complex but deep mid-level trough continues to swirl over the eastern CONUS this morning with rapidly deepening low pressure lifting along the mid-Atlantic coast towards New England. Skies have rapidly cleared in the low's wake save for the Outer Banks where low stratus lingers. Precipitation threat has come to an end and today will be dry, although expect lower clouds to fill back in into the afternoon hours. Some guidance depicts development of very light rain over the far northeastern Outer Banks in the afternoon as a secondary shortwave pivots over the region, but odds of this are low (<10% probability) and kept out of the forecast for now.

With such a strong low and expansive low, gusty winds will remain present today. Wind Advisory is still slated to drop after sunrise, but gusts up to 30-35 kt are expected to persist well into tomorrow afternoon even for inland areas. This raises some slight concern for fire weather issues as forecast RHs will fall to around 30-35% in the afternoon, especially west of Highway 17, and rainfall totals from today underperformed sitting at well under a quarter inch in some spots. For now, conditions too marginal to issue any relevant headlines.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next rainmaker for our area arrives late mid to late week as another cold front pushes across the eastern CONUS while weak low pressure lifts across the mid- Atlantic. Guidance is beginning to converge on timing, now favoring Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation will be all liquid with temps well into the 60s, with some limited thunder potential confined closer to the coast. Probabilities of seeing over a quarter inch of rain with this system are moderate (60-70%), and low to moderate (30-40%) for a half inch. Given the consistent under-performance of precipitation as of late with ongoing drought conditions, these odds may be generous.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main aviation concern through the TAF cycle will be strong WNWerly winds. All TAF sites currently VFR, which is expected to persist through the period. Gusty WNWerly winds through the day MON, G20kt in am, G25-30kt midday. Some mid to lower level clouds will sink from N to S over the Nern half of the FA midday before being pulled off the coast as the low continues to depart. Lowest cloud decks expected to remain AoA FL035 at the lowest.

Outlook: VFR persists through midweek. FROPA Thursday into Friday will bring another round of precip, wind shifts, and SubVFR flight cat potential.

MARINE

Strong winds and elevated seas expected through today. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters but the inland rivers where SCA is now in effect.

Latest observations show winds have likely hit their peak, now out of the northwest at around 25-35 kt with gusts up to 40-45 kt especially offshore. Seas have responded in kind, now rising well above 10 feet especially along and north of Cape Hatteras. Winds will slowly fall through today with all Gales likely ending by midday, but SCA conditions will then likely extend into Tue.

Outlook: Offshore waters likely to remain poor through late next week as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front forecast to cross late this week into the weekend. Gale force winds possible along the Gulf Stream Wed, with seas building to 5-10 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ203. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ204- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ136- 137-230-231. Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150-152. Gale Warning until noon EST today for AMZ154-156-158.