textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Record highs will be threatened for some today and Saturday as very warm southwest flow will develop. A cold front will move through Sunday and bring scattered showers into Sun morning. A return to colder and drier early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 3 AM Fri...The dry cold front that moved through last night/early this morning will lift back north as a warm front today. This will bring increasing heights/thicknesses as winds return to the S to SW, which will send high temps into the mid 70s across interior zones and 60s along the coast. Some record highs may be possible for some (see record section below). Dry weather will ensue today. Any sprinkles or showers should remain east of the OBX.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/

As of 3 AM Fri...Inc warm/moist advection overnight tonight will bring a threat for sea fog along the Crystal Coast and OBX zones north of Buxton, as increasing temps/dewpoints over cold sound/shelf waters produce a strengthening marine inversion. Otherwise, some patchy fog also possible inland zones with winds less than 5 mph and the aforementioned inc in low level moisture. Temps very warm for the 2nd week of Dec, with readings 55-60, which is actually above our normal high for this time of year.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 3 AM Fri...

Key Messages

- Record breaking warmth on Saturday with highs 75-80 inland.

- Cold front Sunday with scattered showers in the morning.

- Return to seasonably cool temperatures and dry weather early next week.

Saturday/Saturday Night...Have trended drier Sat, and as a result warmer as well. Some coastal showers are possible in the morning as weak pre frontal trough migrates through mean swrly flow. Otherwise, brief prefrontal ridging is expected with ht rises and ENC firmly in warm sector. This will be the warmest day, esp if more sun than clouds are realized. Model low level thicknesses are approaching 1390M, indicative of highs approaching 80 degrees inland (see record section below). Have inc high temps as a result to higher end of guidance (MAVMOS/ECSMOS) given deep mixed swrly winds. EFI is forecasting max temps nearing the 90th percentile for this time of year.

Precip chances inc somewhat on Sat night, but ENC will still be in the dry/warm sector before showers move in. By late night have pops inc to low end likely well inland with chc coast. Very warm once again ahead of the front temps hovering around 60 degrees for most throughout the night.

Sunday...Aforementioned cold front sweeps through on Sunday. Shower chances maximize during the morning, and although QPF not expected to be overly impressive, decent strong forcing and lift in place and have cont to advertise likely pops as a result. Arctic front will take it's time to move into ENC and therefore still warm on Sun with highs well into the 60s on wrly to nwrly downsloping flow.

Sunday Night...Arctic front blasts through with a thump of gusty nwrly resurgent winds making it's presence felt. Temps will fall sharply behind the front, and end up in the upr 20s/low 30s for most, mid 30s beaches.

Early to mid next week...Cool but seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather is forecast for early next week as deep trough swings through with lowered hts/thicknesses and sfc high pres moving in. Highs 45-50 for Mon, then into the 50s through mid week. Cold lows in the 20s for interior zones Mon night, then moderating into the 30s through mid week. Coastal system may bring some rain by Wed, with pops ranging from 20$ interior to 30% coast.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 115 AM Friday...

Key Messages

- VFR through the day today, S winds 10-15 knots

- sub-MVFR conditions return with sea fog threat along the coast this evening into tonight, and radiational fog threat inland tonight.

High pressure near the Delmarva Peninsula will continue to slide offshore this morning as a warm front lifts north. As of right now generally VFR conditions persist across ENC as a mix of persistent cloud cover and light winds kept sites from seeing reduced vis as initially expected. Conditions should remain VFR with S winds 10-15 knots as a warm front moves through this morning/afternoon. Tonight, we will have ample moisture in the wake of the warm front, which paired with light to calm winds brings yet another night of fog/low stratus concerns (both radiational and sea fog). Cold nearshore and inland sound/river waters (SSTs in the low 50s) will have a moisture rich airmass with SW flow. For now capped TAFs at MVFR tonight, although potential for LIFR exists.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions possible again Saturday night into Sunday morning with showers associated with an approaching cold front. High pressure builds back into the area early next week bringing a much drier airmass and expect pred VFR conditions with limited fog potential.

MARINE

As of 3 AM Fri...

Key Messages...

- Sub-SCA conditions through Saturday morning

- Sea fog possible late tonight into Saturday. - 20-30 kt winds develop Saturday afternoon on the Gulf ahead of a strong cold front (Small Craft Advisory).

- Winds strengthen further Sat night with sounds/northern waters experiencing SCA conditions and gales possible on the Gulf waters between Oregon Inlet and C Lookout (gale watch). - Cold front passage on Sunday with ensuing cold air advection strong winds in its wake Sunday night with SCA likely most marine areas.

Through tonight...5-15 kt E to NE winds will veer to the S today but remain light. An inc in winds to 10-20 kt on the Gulf by this afternoon and cont into tonight. Seas will be 2-3 ft across all coastal zones.

Saturday through early Sunday morning...Two rounds of strong winds are expected as a cold front impacts the area this weekend. The first round will occur Saturday afternoon - early Sunday morning. Winds will reach SCA levels on the Gulf Sat afternoon, then inc to SCA all waters and Pamlico Sound, possibly other sounds on Sat night. As gradient increases, well mixed winds over the warmer Gulf waters will inc to around gale force, with probs >70% according to the 09/00Z ECM. For this reason have elected to issue a gale watch after midnight between Oregon Inlet and C Lookout. Seas will build to 5-9 ft during this time.

On Sunday until late afternoon, there will be a slight reprieve in winds and seas as winds continue to veer towards the west, but hazardous boating conditions will continue. The second round of strong winds will accompany the arctic cold front that will blast through after around 5pm Sunday evening. With the cold air mass ensuing, good mixing on even the cooler waters will produce gusts up to 30 kt for most waters and sounds. Brief gales again possible on the waters, but may be short lived and mainly with the initial surge just behind the arctic front.

Boating conditions will improve to sub-SCA by Monday morning as high pressure builds back in and winds/seas rapidly decrease.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 01/09 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 79/1937 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 73/1937 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 75/1930 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 70/2013 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 71/2013 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 77/1974 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 01/10 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 78/1974 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 70/2020 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 79/1937 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 73/1983 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 75/1974 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 80/1974 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night for AMZ152-154-156. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for AMZ152-154-156.