textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change to the previous forecast. Low pressure will bring several impacts tonight into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rapidly deepening low pressure off the coast this afternoon and Monday will bring a host of impacts to the area including strong winds, minor snowfall accumulations, and minor coastal flooding.

2) Next front approaches the region late Thursday into Friday

Marine...Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters tonight, with a low (near 10%) risk of some Storm-force gusts over the Gulf Stream. Gusty SW winds develop mid week ahead of approaching front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Positively tilted shortwave tracking across the OH/TN valley will continue to become more negative tilted and deepen as it phases with a faster moving mid-level disturbance. At the surface, stalled frontal boundary offshore will serve as the focal point for cyclogenesis, intensifying this afternoon and tonight as trough takes on an increasing neutral and eventually negative tilt through the day. Latest model guidance continues to favor a strong low traversing quite close to the coast, eventually lifting northward and hammering the mid- Atlantic and New England.

Dry across the area this afternoon, though expect precip to re- develop later this afternoon and evening as low deepens and more robust lift associated with the deepening shortwave nears the area. Light rain beginning to blossom over central NC and southern VA, moving eastward. Precipitation gradually ends from west to east tonight into early Monday with strong CAA ramping up behind the departing low as it rapidly deepens off the Mid- Atlantic coast allowing temps to fall into the 30s. All available guidance continues to favor a brief change-over to snow as cooler air gets wrapped in to the area, mainly focused along the north of Highway 264. Ensembles continue to favor a modest few tenths of an inch, very close to the previous forecast, so offered minimal change here. It should be noted a minority of guidance depicts a bit more robust lift across this region and suggesting a risk of totals exceeding an inch. Right now, this is a low probability threat (around a 10-20% chance, generously). Minimal impacts expected given the sfc temps. Best chances light snow chances still areas along and north of Highway 264, with the forecast totals less than 0.5". A shortwave rotating through the departing low may keep low clouds and light precip lingering through much of Monday morning and afternoon, although we will have dried up a decent amount at that point.

Stronger winds are still expected tonight into Monday, and the forecast now calls for gusts pushing 45-50 mph across portions of the Outer Banks. Wind Advisories continue from the northern Outer Banks southward to down east Carteret Co. In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory (1-2 ft agl) continues for sound-side flooding concerns due to the strong WNWerly winds expected. Localized ocean overwash will be possible for vulnerable Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands early Monday, and perhaps into Tuesday should swell become more organized, but the severity of this is lower than the sound-side concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next rainmaker for our area arrives late mid to late week as another cold front pushes across the eastern CONUS while weak low pressure lifts across the mid- Atlantic. Timing on when this boundary will come through has shifted back and forth as expected this far out, but the most likely time for rain is Thursday into Friday. With temps well into the 60s, this system will be all liquid with rainfall amounts of at least a quarter inch.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

There's a lull in shower activity but this will subside within the next couple of hours as the dry slot moves east and the wrap around moisture kicks off the next round of precip. Precip will begin as rain but will transition to snow or a rain/snow mix along and north of Highway 264 after 00Z. This area is expected to see less than 1/2" of accumulation, but snow could cause brief reductions in VIS. TAF site flight cats will hover in the low-end MVFR to IFR range until later this evening when the precip moves offshore. CIGs will gradually improve, and all TAF sites should return to VFR between 23- 03Z. Gusty NW winds will persist through the period with 15-30 kt gusts through late tonight, 15-20 kt early tomorrow morning, and 20- 25 kt tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be highest along the Outer Banks where a Wind Advisory is in effect until 8 AM tomorrow for gusts up to 45 kt.

Outlook: Once flight cats return to VFR tonight, they will remain predominantly VFR through early next week.

MARINE

Strong winds and elevated seas expected tonight into Monday. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the rivers, sounds and coastal waters.

Latest obs show NW-W winds 10-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft south of Hatteras and 4-6 ft north. Boating conditions will quickly deteriorate this afternoon and evening as rapidly deepening low pressure strengthens off the coast. Strong Gales will develop in W-WNW flow behind the low. Peak gusts will be around 35-45 kt, although there remains a low (10% chance) of some Storm- force gusts primarily over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Seas will rise in response to around 7-10+ feet, especially beyond 10 nm offshore. Winds peak overnight, grad diminishing through the day Mon. SCA conditions will then likely extend into Tue.

Outlook: Offshore waters likely to remain poor through late next week as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front forecast to cross late this week into the weekend. Gale force winds possible along the Gulf Stream Wed, with seas building to 5-10 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Monday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Monday for AMZ154-156-158.