textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Patchy dense fog possible early tomorrow morning over the northern coastal plain, especially Pitt and Martin counties.

2) Warming trend this weekend, followed by well above normal conditions developing next week.

3) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecasted, and well above normal temperatures expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The axis of the ridge of high pressure will settle over northern NC tonight, allowing for good radiational cooling conditions. This will result in the potential for patchy dense fog, with best chances for dense fog (1-2 miles) likely along and north of US 264 in Pitt and Martin counties. Lighter fog is possible south and east of here, but the key to all this will be if and when winds calm early tomorrow morning to allow for fog to form. Any fog that does form will be quick to burn off tomorrow morning after sunrise.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Building low level thicknesses tomorrow through the weekend will allow warming temps to near and slightly above normal. By SUN afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the Mid- Atlantic coast, veering local winds more Eerly SUN and then becoming Serly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs are forecast to reach the 90deg mid to late next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Forecast continues to be dry for the foreseeable future. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying of fuels through the long term. This will lead to the potential for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are forecast.

Worsening drought conditions are possible by early next week as soils continue to dry after a soaking rain last weekend. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are present this afternoon and will continue into tonight with high pressure ridging into the area. Tonight, there will be potential for patchy dense fog to form over the coastal plain, with best chances along and north of US 264 in closer proximity to the high pressure ridge axis. KPGV will likely see some MVFR level fog, with a small window for IFR visibilities (~2 sm) right before sunrise. Farther south and west, including KISO, MVFR level fog is possible briefly before sunrise. Closer to the coast, a light breeze should limit any fog development.

Fog will burn off quickly after sunrise, with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the day.

MARINE

Small craft conditions continue across all the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound this afternoon due to both hazardous seas and strong NE winds. Winds will eventually subside tonight, but SCAs will continue for seas through the weekend.

Strong and persistent NE winds continue this afternoon at 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Expect winds to slowly ease the rest of the day and drop to 15-20 kts after midnight. NE winds continue tomorrow but will continue to weaken, and will be 10-15 kts in the morning, and 5-10 kts by late tomorrow afternoon.

Seas remain 6-10 ft this afternoon, and will be very slow to subside with persistent NE winds continuing. Seas should come down to 6-8 ft by tomorrow afternoon, but look to stay above 6 ft through much of the weekend.

Outlook: Another ridge shifts across NECONUS over the weekend once again leading NEerly winds SAT night and SUN, continuing to veer to become S and then SWerly early next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.