textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Higher confidence in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and into early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dense fog threat will return along the coast tonight and persist for the next few overnight periods.

2) Well above normal to near record conditions expected through early next week with high pressure ridging offshore.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of sea fog have returned to portions of the NC coast, with the most widespread areas along the Crystal Coast and south along Onslow county. Expect fog to continue to expand inland the rest of the early morning hours, and potentially return to areas along the Outer Banks. Visibilities may drop enough to warrant Dense Fog Advisories.

A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight, and fog could extend inland from the coast at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some afternoons, especially tomorrow through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures.

Latest forecast trends show a weak front moving into the Carolinas late this weekend and into early next week, bringing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms...though it looks like well above normal temps will continue.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Biggest challenge this morning will be the timing of the ongoing dense fog across the Crystal Coast and OBX. Latest obs across the area and satellite imagery show widespread visibilities around 1/2 to 1/4 mile. This has resulted in widespread LIFR to IFR vis categories this morning across EWN/OAJ terminals as well as across nearby locations. Will note however, the fog layer is not very thick and should begin to burn off rapidly within the next few hours. High clouds are noted to the north and west across PGV/ISO and adjacent areas resulting in VFR conditions here. Where we currently see VFR conditions, expect these conditions to persist through the rest of today. Elsewhere where patchy dense fog is ongoing current forecast suggest this all dissipates by about 9-10AM this morning. Once the area goes VFR expecting VFR conditions to continue into this evening. Between about 15-17Z expect SW'rly winds to increase to 5-15 kts allowing for both ceilings and vis to lift resulting in widespread VFR conditions across all of ENC. As we get into tonight, once again expect seafog to develop along the coast and OBX and then spread inland bringing an elevated threat for sub VFR vis/ceilings mainly along and east of Hwy 17 after 06Z Fri.

Outlook: A return to VFR conditions is expected on Fri, though once again Fri night do expect a threat for patchy to widespread fog along the coast with lower ceilings inland as the environment will change little across ENC and remain favorable for seafog to advect inland along the coast. May see some improving conditions from SUn and beyond as winds become elevated limiting any fog threat but, with increasing chances for showers lowers ceilings may prevail from SUn on into early next week.

MARINE

SEA FOG: Areas of sea fog have returned to portions of the NC coast, with the most widespread areas along the Crystal Coast and south towards Onslow Bay. Expect fog to continue to expand the rest of the early morning hours, potentially returning to areas along and off the Outer Banks. Visibilities may drop enough to warrant Dense Fog Advisories.

A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight.

WINDS/SEAS: Pleasant boating conditions are expected (outside of fog) for the next couple of days with high pressure offshore. Winds will be SSW/SW at 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft.

Outlook: Good boating conditions continue into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine area.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 03/05 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 84/2015 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/1976 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 86/1923 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 76/2023 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 87/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 83/1985 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 85/1961 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 76/1992 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1992 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 85/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 82/1961 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1974 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/2022 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/1908 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 85/1974 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ195-196- 204-205. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ135-137- 154-156-158.