textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extended the High Surf Advisory into this evening across Hatteras Island.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend continues through the end of the week bringing well above normal temperatures. High temperatures may approach record values on Friday.

2) Large and powerful swell continues to impact portions of the Outer Banks bringing large breaking waves into tonight.

3) Low pressure system is forecast to bring unsettled conditions to ENC late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)...High pressure is now well offshore this afternoon with steady SW'rly flow remains over ENC with ample mid and high cloud cover. This has allowed for temps to get well into the 60s to low 70s across the region today. Expect temps to continue to get into the 60s to 70s through Friday with the warmest day being on Friday when thicknesses support highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Record highs for Friday are in the lower 80s inland from the coast and the record values for established climate sites can be found in the CLIMATE section below. Across the immediate coast and OBX, below normal water temperatures will keep these areas cooler with highs in the 50s to 60s each day. The one caveat that may result in slightly lower temps than currently forecast will be the extent of clouds and scattered showers as a few weak systems traverse the area late in the week.

Key Message 2)... Long period 13 to 14 second swell continues to impact the OBX mainly north of Cape Hatteras this afternoon. With webcams and latest buoy data support, have elected to extend the high surf advisory from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras out until 10PM tonight as occasional 8 ft breaking waves look to impact this stretch. Further south, with shorter wave periods closer to 7-8 seconds the threat for large breaking waves has been greatly reduced so have ended the high surf advisory across Ocracoke Island.

Key Message 3)...No major changes with the forecast thinking for this weekend as a positively tilted shortwave will track across the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains late this week with the trough taking on a more negative tilt and deepening slightly as it reaches the east coast late this weekend. At the mid levels southern stream shortwave quickly traverses the CONUS reaching the Southeast by Sun/Mon while a northern stream shortwave dives S'wards at the same time potentially phasing with the southern stream as it pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, cold front will drop SE'wards across ENC on Sat and stall around the area with a wave of low pressure then riding along this stalled front and deepening after it pushes offshore bringing chances for rain to the region this weekend. Rain then gradually ends from west to east Sun night into Monday as temps fall. There is a chance for a non impactful rain/snow mix towards the end of the event this weekend Sun night into Mon. However, this will likely be the typical cold air chasing the moisture setup so have little confidence in any other ptype besides rain. Will note, while I have used a primarily NBM blend for the weekends PoPs as well, the NBM typically tends to struggle with holding onto moisture for far too long so precip could end much sooner than currently forecast. SAme challenges remain with this forecast setup as there remains differences in model guidance with overall speed and strength of the incoming upper trough and shortwaves so will have to monitor forcast trends for the latest update on this system.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR but windy conditions will continue this afternoon with SW wind gusts 25-35 mph. Winds will come down this evening as mixing ceases, and become light and variable overnight. Cloudbases will range from 3500-5000 ft this afternoon through early tonight ahead of a weak front.

By early tomorrow morning, a weak front sinking south into the northern Carolinas will bring decreasing ceiling heights and increasing chances for showers. The front will stall somewhere near the Pamlico River/US 264 corridor and eventually lift northward late tomorrow. The best chances for seeing MVFR ceilings will be along and north of this front, and ceilings should drop to 2000-3000 ft tomorrow morning along and north of US 64 including KPGV. Farther south down to US 70, there are moderate chances of MVFR ceilings developing, but at exactly what time and for how long is uncertain at this time. South of US 70, VFR conditions should hold on through the day tomorrow.

Outlook: Periods of rain and lower CIGs in and out of the forecast late week into the weekend with a cold front approaching ENC and a developing low traveling along the boundary later in the weekend.

MARINE

Wave guidance has come back more into line with the observations this afternoon but wave period remains underdone so 5-6 ft swell at 13-14 seconds remains prevalent across our coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras this afternoon. While this is slightly longer than previously thought the general expectation is by tonight swell should finally abate as the low associated with this swell pushes further out to sea. However a system passing to the north today will serve to keep the pressure gradient tight bringing elevated SW winds and bringing 5-8 ft seas to our coastal waters. As a result have kept the small craft advisories in place across our coastal waters for now. SW winds are forecast to remain to around 10-20 kt with occasional gusts up near 25 kts across the sounds, rivers and northern coastal waters where below normal water temperature will bring a more stability near the surface, but near the warmer Gulf Stream waters, SW winds are expected to be around 15-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt.

Outlook: Conditions improve Thursday and Thursday night but another system passing to the north could bring SCA conditions to portions of the coastal waters again on Friday, most likely near the warmer Gulf Stream waters. A stronger low pressure system is forecast to impact the coastal waters on Sunday.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for Friday 02/20

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 81/1991 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/2018 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 81/2018 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 73/1994 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 82/1939 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 82/1991 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.