textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to ongoing headlines.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A slow moving nor'easter continues deepen well offshore, impacting the coastal areas.

2) Dry with cooler than avg conditions continue through the week.

Marine: Gale Warnings continue in effect. Prolonged period of strong winds and high seas as nor'easter lingers offshore through at least mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Vertically stacked low pressure will meander off the NC and Mid-Atlantic coast through mid week bringing prolonged strong north to northeasterly winds across ENC. Guidance continues to show the low wobbling a bit off the coast while deepening tonight as it slowly lifts northward off the Mid- Atlantic coast, as the system remains cut-off from the mean flow aloft. Winds are expected to increase again this afternoon and evening, with another surge potentially on Wednesday, so will make very little change to winds at this time. It is not until Thursday that the low will begin to accelerate away from the East Coast as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast.

Tight pressure gradients between the offshore low and high pressure across the Eastern CONUS will bring strong north to northeast winds across the region with the strongest winds across the Outer Banks where gusts 45-50 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from Duck to Ocracoke through this evening.

The strong winds continue to bring large surf along the coast as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have recently reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe, and ferry service remains suspended in certain locations.

Each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the dunes, further, and the threat of additional impacts to Hwy 12 remain. Minor soundside flooding is also a concern along southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco, Ocracoke, areas of Downeast Carteret Co. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Outer Banks and East Carteret County. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for Cape Lookout and points north through the OBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler air mass that has advected in will remain with us through the next several days with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will continue to gust 15-25 kt through this evening, diminishing this evening. Stratocu will increase along the coast late tonight and Wed. Cigs along the Outer Banks may occasionally drop to MVFR.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): VFR and breezy conditions are expected to continue through the next several days as the offshore low remains well offshore and high pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.

MARINE

Very dangerous marine conditions will continue through the week as low pressure deepens well off the NC coast but continue to supply a steady fetch of strong n-nerly winds into ENC with large east- northeasterly swells.

Latest obs show N-NNE winds 15-25 kt across the rivers and 20-30 kt gusting 25-35 kt across the coastal waters, with seas 5-7 ft south of Lookout and 10-15+ ft north. Most guidance shows winds increasing a bit this evening and overnight as low pressure continues to deepen as it wobble off the coast while slowly drifting northward over the next couple of days. So will maintain the Gale Warning for most of the coastal waters as well as the Pamlico Sound. Will not see much improvement in the seas through mid week.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Winds will diminish sufficiently Thursday that the sounds and rivers are expected to briefly drop below SCA criteria, however very large seas as high as 10-15 ft will continue over the coastal waters. Winds and seas increasing again Friday into the weekend as strong high pressure builds in from the north.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ203-205. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ203>205. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-230- 231. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-186. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ137. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-154. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ158. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ180-182-184. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ188.