textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Record highs will be threatened for some on Friday and Saturday as very warm high pressure dominates. A cold front will move through Sunday and bring showers to the area Sat night into Sun morning. A return to colder and drier early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 3 AM Thu...Backdoor front pushes through this morning with nerly flow ensuing. Temps will cool back down to the mid 60s interior, to mid 50s nrn OBX, but overall temps remain well above climo. Skies will be mostly sunny with only sct cirrus streaming through.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/

As of 3 AM Thu...Mild temperatures for tonight, with lows cont well above normal, generally in the 40s, with low 50s on the beaches. Threat for fog and low stratus overnight due to moist erly flow and lingering low level moisture in place.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 3 AM Thu...

Friday through Saturday...Front will lift back north as a warm front and bring inc hts/thicknesses in it's wake. Highs will soar into the mid 70s across interior zones, with 60s on the immediate coast with the onshore flow. Some record highs may be threatened both Fri and Sat (see record section below).

A weak prefrontal trough could bring some light rain showers or sprinkles on Sat morning, and have pops in the 20-30% range for this threat. By afternoon, skies become mo sunny as area will be under even stronger deep layer swrly flow and brief ridging ahead of approaching strong cold front.

Sunday...Aforementioned cold front sweeps through on Sunday. Shower chances maximize during the morning, and although QPF not expected to be overly impressive, strong forcing and lift in place and have raised pops as a result into the low end likely range (50-70%). CAA during the afternoon with falling temps late in the day behind fropa.

Early next week...Cool but seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather is forecast for early next week as deep trough swings through with lowered hts/thicknesses. Highs in the 40s for Mon then 50s on Tue as moderating airmass ensues. Lows will be in the 20s to near 30.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 630 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

- Sub-VFR conditions early this morning gradually improve

- Sub-VFR chances return tonight into Friday morning

Weak cold front is stalled along the Crystal coast, bringing a wide swath of light to calm winds and moisture convergence. This is resulting in fog at terminals in the southern half of the CWA. Of note, EWN has consistently had observations of 1/4SM, which now is being verified by webcams as well. As the sun rises and daytime heating kicks off, the fog will dissipate, bringing us to VFR levels by 14Z. Light winds and mid/upper level clouds through today, with drops to MVFR/IFR possible again tonight/Friday morning. Models have become more aggressive with IFR potential with fog and low stratus tonight between the 00Z and 06Z runs. Winds will be light to calm with mid and upper level clouds lingering over the region. This afternoon's crossover temps will be worth monitoring for fog potential tonight as the cloud cover may make it difficult to radiationally cool. If we mix out efficiently in the afternoon and Tds drop to the low 40s, it may be more difficult for fog to develop tonight.

Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions expected beyond Friday as high pressure builds in to end the work week into Saturday. Rain chances this weekend could bring reductions in flight categories.

MARINE

As of 3 AM Thu...

Key Messages...

- Benign boating conditions today as winds will be nerly 5-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. - Swrly winds inc to 15-20 kt with some higher gusts Fri/Fri night on the Gulf, with 5-15 kt elsewhere. - Strengthening swrly winds to 20-30 kt, highest on the Gulf for Saturday into Saturday night ahead of strong cold front.

- Cold front swings through on Sunday with gusty nwrly winds keeping SCA conditions through Sunday night.

Today...Backdoor front brings winds around to the ne today though speeds will be in the 10-15 kt range. Seas will be in the 2-3 ft range.

Friday through Friday Night...Winds turn swrly through the day, with speeds inc to 15-20 kt on the Gulf with gusts nearing 25 kt between C Lookout and C Hatteras. Elsewhere, winds will be in the 5-15 kt range.

Saturday through Sunday...A strong cold front will approach this weekend, increasing S to SW winds to 20-30 kt, highest on the waters south of Oregon Inlet where ocnl gale gusts possible when winds peak Sat night. Front passes on Sunday, with nwrly winds developing in its wake and peaking Sun night with SCA continuing.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 01/09 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 79/1937 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 73/1937 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 75/1930 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 70/2013 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 71/2013 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 77/1974 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 01/10 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 78/1974 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 70/2020 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 79/1937 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 73/1983 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 75/1974 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 80/1974 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ158.