textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Weak front crosses the area this afternoon and evening, stalling offshore to the south. Another low pressure system will develop and travel along the boundary, impacting the Carolinas Friday morning into Saturday. A front will stall off the southern NC coast behind this system leading to unsettled weather through this weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/

As of 0130 Thursday...

Key Messages...

- There is potential for patchy dense fog and freezing fog in early morning hours, but confidence on any impacts is currently low

- Quiet, dry and below normal conditions continue today

With strong cooling tonight under high pressure and a still saturated ground, there will also be potential for patchy fog to develop, and there are indications that what forms could be locally dense by early tomorrow morning. Additionally, with temperatures dropping into the 20s, freezing fog is possible, but confidence is currently low as to whether is will be prevalent enough to cause any impacts on elevated roadways and bridges.

Weak, dry, fairly diffuse front crosses the FA this afternoon and evening bringing no precip. An increase in high clouds through the day as 400-250mb moisture surges S of a strengthening upper level jet developing between closed low over CAN and positively tilted longwave trough over MEX. Front will be barely noticeable with little change in Tds, but SFC winds will veer from Werly to Nerly behind the front in the hours around sunset. Highs in the mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 0130 Thursday...

Key Messages...

- Rain increases after midnight, patchy and light increasing in coverage and intensity closer to daybreak. - Far NWern Martin Co may be cold enough for wintery precip to mix in.

N-NEerly winds behind the weak front bring localized cold wedge of high pressure across the area, keeping the lower levels dry through the first half of the night. After midnight, a weak midlevel shortwave cuts across SECONUS with developing WAA behind warm front aloft beginning to moisten the lower levels. This moisture influx over the cold wedge will allow for light rain to begin making it to the ground. MinTs in the upper 30s to low 40s keeps precip liquid for just about all of the FA. However, far NWern areas of Martin Co may be cold enough for some of this precip to transition to snow in the early morning hours.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 0230 Thursday...

Key Messages

- Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region Friday into Saturday - Potential for precip to begin as snow across Martin and Pitt counties Friday morning, but with temps above freezing little to no accumulations or impacts are anticipated - Unsettled pattern through at least Monday - Drier midweek

The forecast becomes more unsettled starting Friday as a series of lows will move along the stalled boundary offshore and several shortwaves move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances in the forecast into early next week with highest chances being from Friday morning through Saturday morning as developing low pressure cuts across the FL Big Bend and works NEward along the boundary, passing just offshore of the FA FRI evening. Surface temps across northwestern zones will be near freezing Friday morning, which will open the door for a mix of rain and/or snow. Elsewhere, temps will be warm enough to keep the precip all liquid. A large temperature gradient will exist on Friday with highs in the low 40s inland under the cold wedge and mid to upper 50s at the coast. More uniform temps across the FA SAT as the offshore low pulls high pressure over ENC from NW to SE; MaxTs upper 40s inland, low 50s along the coast. Slight chance/low end chance PoPs will stick around on Sunday (highest along the coast) with highs in the low to mid 50s.

The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern half of the CWA with lingering PoPs with passage of cold front expected Monday. Dry conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure builds back in at the SFC behind Monday's front and troughing aloft that plagues ECONUS this weekend pushes offshore. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s MON/TUE with widespread sub- freezing MinTs away from the immediate each night, coldest MON night/TUE am.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 650 AM Thu...

Key Messages

- Shallow sub-VFR fog early this morning

- With temperatures dipping below freezing, there is also an iso risk of freezing fog

Strong radiational cooling has allowed for shallow fog development early this morning. Obs currently ranging from VFR to IFR. Freezing fog threat still looks low based on vsbys. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise with VFR conditions prevailing today. Clouds will grad increase and lower this afternoon and evening, likely lowering to sub-VFR after 6z as rain chances increase...approaching IFR by sunrise Fri morning.

Outlook: The next system will move through ENC Friday and Saturday with another risk of widespread sub-VFR conditions. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible.

MARINE

As of 0130 Thursday...

Key Messages...

- Conditions deteriorate tonight with Nerly surge of cool high pressure increasing winds and building seas behind weak front that will remain offshore through the weekend. - SCAs issued for coastal waters from Ocracoke Inlet N. - Rain likely from Tonight through the weekend and into early next week - Widespread marine headlines becoming more likely MON and TUE

NW/Werly winds 5-15kt through the bulk of today. A weak, dry, rather diffuse front crosses ENC waters this evening gradually turning NWerly winds Nerly and then NNEerly at 15-20 kts with some wind gusts to 25 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft, but will briefly increase to 4-6 ft tonight, which prompted the issuance of SCAs for Nern and Central coastal waters into the early morning hours Saturday. PamSound may see some 25kt gusts FRI, but coverage and duration have kept the need for an SCA here low. Will give day shifters another cut at winds and let them make the call whether to issue a headline for PamSound or not.

Outlook: A series of coastal lows will move through later this week and this weekend, bringing solid chances for rain. On the backside of MON's low, strong Nerly winds will develop. SCAs likely over all ENC waters, inside and outside, with Gales possible for all coastal waters and maybe larger sounds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Saturday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.