textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move through the area today bringing moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorm chances to the area, heaviest rain is expected to be east of hwy 17. High pressure will build in from the north behind the front. A shortwave moves along a stalled front offshore mid- week bringing heavy rain chances along the coast. High pressure builds in again for the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 245 AM Sunday...Broad upper troughing remains in place over southeastern Canada with the axis of a notable shortwave trough pivoting eastward across the Great Lakes region and Ohio River Valley. Surface cold front remains stretched northeast- southwest across central NC and will slowly push into the region during the pre-dawn hours reaching the coast this morning. Earlier convection across central NC has since waned with loss of instability but continue to see abundant storms offshore near the Gulf Stream. However, expect showers and thunderstorms to redevelop across this afternoon as forcing improves with the right entrance region of the upper jet passing over the region. Highest chances will be east of highway 17 where instability and moisture will be greatest and where sfc convergence along the front and sea breeze boundaries will reside. Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall with PW values peaking near 2" today and WPC has the eastern half of the FA in a marginal excessive rainfall risk. Blend of models showing an area of QPF around 1-2" east of highway 17 and some HiRes guidance forecasting locally higher amounts. Northerly flow and clouds will bring cooler temps today with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s along north to mid 80s southern coastal sections.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 315 AM Sunday...Showers and storms weaken this evening with waning instability and gradually off the coast as the front pushes farther offshore and high pressure builds in from the north. A drier airmass will filter into the area with dew point temps dropping to the mid to upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s along the coast by late tonight. Lows tonight expected in the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 4 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

- Cooler conditions late this weekend into next week

- Errant showers possible along the coast early next week as coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Tue and Wed

Front stalls along the gulf stream to start the work week keeping much of the precip offshore. Errant showers are possible through early next week along the coast, originating from this stalled front/coastal trough offshore as weak shortwaves move through along it. NE flow behind the front as high pressure builds in will bring a stretch of drier, and cooler conditions inland through much of next week. Mid- week, a slightly stronger shortwave looks to move through along the coastal trough. This will bring the best chances of showers reaching the coast and perhaps even areas inland. WPC has our coast in a marginal ERO for Tuesday 12Z to Wednesday 12Z. After this, high pressure builds in again as front remains stalled offshore. Deterministic guidance (CMC, GFS) are trying to show a weak low forming along this stalled front off the FL/GA/SC coast next weekend as a deep positively tilted trough moves through. It is too soon to tell what impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence on the timing, track, and intensity of the low, if it even gets resolved.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Pred VFR at the TAF sites early this morning but have seen patchy fog develop as several coastal stations, including briefly at OAJ. Guidance indicates the best chance for fog will continue to be along the coast but could see brief periods of fog or stratus along inland rtes as well as a cold front slowly pushes into the are reaching the coast this morning. A mix of MVFR/VFR cigs expected across rtes through much of the day with showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Best chances will be east of highway 17 near the front and sea breeze interaction and where best instability and moisture will reside. High pressure builds in from the north overnight will improving conditions expected across northwestern rtes but sub-VFR conditions expected to persist across much of the rest of the FA.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Low stratus possible as northerly flow may result in a cold air damming regime along the coastal plain this coming week. Tuesday into Wednesday rain chances with drops in cig and vis pick up, highest along the coast.

MARINE

SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 330 AM Sunday...A cold front will slowly push across the waters today and push offshore tonight with high pressure building in from the north. Light and variable winds early this morning become Nly around 15-20 kt behind the front this afternoon and evening. Gradients tighten further overnight with SCA conditions developing across most waters with N to NE winds around 20-25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas around 2-3 ft this morning will build late today and tonight to around 4-6 ft by early Monday.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to develop early next week

Moderate NNE flow post frontal flow increases to 20-25 kt (gusting to at or above 30 kts) Mon and Tue. Seas will build to 4-8 ft Monday into Tuesday. Seas abate as winds ease late Tuesday into Wednesday, with southern waters (Onslow Bay) first to see sub 6ft seas as early as Tuesday night. Northern waters (off of NOBX) may not see sub-6ft seas until mid to late day Wednesday. Gale Watches were considered for coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound, but at this point gusts of 34+ knots are not expected to be frequent enough. Trends will have to be monitored, as even a 3-5kt uptick in fcst winds will bring us to gale watch/warning criteria. Currently HREF has a 20-40% chance of seeing gale force gusts late Monday into Tuesday along and in proximity of the Gulf Stream.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-135-137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.