textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No notable changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near record temperatures possible today and tomorrow.

2) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through next week, with the only meaningful chance of rain coming Sunday.

3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temperatures are expected today and tomorrow thanks to warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This will equate to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with the only meaningful rainfall coming on Sunday, which only looks to be about 1/4" or less across the forecast area.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There will be just enough low-level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, rainfall amounts do not look impressive, with only about 1/4" or less of rain. While instability will likely be modest, deep layer shear of 50-60kt would be supportive of organized convection, if deep updrafts can form. We'll continue to monitor this potential.

Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s to start the new week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front has just passed the EWN/OAJ terminals and is denoted by a thin area of mid level clouds around 10 kft, isolated showers along the northern tier of counties, and a shift in winds with winds behind the front becoming west to northwesterly at 5-10 kts. This front should continue off the coast by this evening with little in the way of fanfare, so continue to keep precip out of the TAF sites but a stray shower or two will be possible along the NOBX terminals over the next 2-3 hours.

Otherwise expecting a primarily VFR TAF through the period. 5-10 kt W to NW winds this evening will lower further becoming light and variable tonight as high pressure ridging briefly builds in from the north. With skies also becoming mostly clear tonight as well, there is a low end chance at some ground fog development, mainly along the coastal TAF sites and points east. Expect any ground fog to be patchy at best and result in little to no impact on operations. For now followed the previous shifts trend and kept some MIFG at 6SM in at the EWN/OAJ terminals.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening. A period of low stratus clouds may develop offshore and advect inland Saturday night into Sunday morning with a risk of sub- VFR CIGs. A cold front will then move through ENC between 13z-18z on Sunday with a chance of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR CIGs. A period of gusty winds is expected as well, especially along and behind the front. During this time, wind gusts as high as 20-25kt are expected. Lighter winds return by early next week as high pressure builds back into the area.

MARINE

Marine conditions continue to improve this afternoon as a weak cold front makes its way across the CWA. Winds are SWerly at 5-15 kt south of Cape Hatteras and light and variable to the north. Southerly flow will redevelop across all waters by tonight and increase to 10-20 kt by tomorrow afternoon. Seas will generally by 3-5 ft through today and then subside to 2-3 ft.

Outlook: Southwest winds will increase again late Saturday night ahead of a cold front. Small craft conditions are likely ahead of the front across the coastal waters, and then as the front passes, winds will veer to the N and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Sunday night with the potential for some Gale force gusts. Seas are expected to build to 5-8 ft in response, peaking late Sunday/early Monday. Scattered thunderstorms may occur with the front as well.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1917 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1985 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ154.