textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SCAs have been issued for all coastal waters and Pamlico Sound for Nern surge behind FROPA MON.

Patchy fog ongoing in early morning hours, threat for necessity of a dense fog advisory appears to be diminishing however. Conditions will continue to be monitored.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry and warm SUN on deck, seabreeze showers can't be completely ruled out.

2) A strong cold front will move through late Monday. Widespread rain showers are expected (70-90%). Depending on the timing of the front, scattered severe thunderstorms and heavy rain may accompany FROPA.

3) Monday's front lift back N as a warm front late TUE into WED followed by another cold front THU representing the next wave of showers and thunderstorms.

Aviation...There will be a risk of LIFR conditions in BR/FG through early Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Your Mother's Day forecast continues to suggest the area remains mostly dry with subsidence aloft in the wake yesterday's shortwave. With that said, light background winds and clearing skies will allow for the development of a seabreeze. Leftover low level moisture will be enough to lead to a diurnal cu field and the seabreeze may provide enough convergence to lead to some light showers along the boundary. Bulk of guidance has a dry forecast for today with a few HiRes models showing the afternoon seabreeze shower threat. Carrying SChc of showers and just below mentionable probability of thunder. MaxTs in the mid 80s inland, mid to upper 70s OBX and areas along the immediate coast cooled by the seabreeze.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Not much change in forecast thinking for now, though we have seen some trends in the 12Z guidance. Decent agreement on next stronger shortwave and attendant cold front moving through the region Monday. This system could have fairly strong dynamics with sharp-ish troughing aloft pivoting over ECONUS to become more negatively tilted as it approaches. Front currently forecast to enter the Nern extent of the FA around sunrise and pushing S toward the Crystal Coast in the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm threat is possible with this system, with the main threats strong to potentially damaging wind gusts, some potential for hail in strongest storms, and heavy downpours. Instability will be maximized in the convergence zone between the seabreeze and the cold front, generally E of HWY17 and S of HWY70. CAPE values differ widely between available guidance, on the order of 0.5-1.5kJ/KG with the difference between models mainly being frontal timing. Event total QPF has decreased for far inland and Nern zones that are away from the greatest instability and convergence, light showers with little vertical development early, a tenth to a quarter of an inch. The area mentioned above could see in excess of an inch of precip under stronger cells. SPC has maintained a marginal threat (level 1/5) for the a similar area as yesterday's outlook. Should the timing of the front slow any, would expect the outlook area to increase with more heating providing more instability as well as greater upper level support for storms as the troughing aloft is currently forecast to lag behind FROPA a few hours. Stout CAA out of the N behind the front (strongest winds over coast, 20-25kt gusts) will bring in cool air and keep skies mostly clear into WED. Maybe upper 40s, but most likely low 50 Mins and low 70s TUE.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A stacked low cutting across the Sern extent of the Great Lakes and high pressure migrating offshore brings warm and moist air across the Carolinas mid week ahead of the next front set to cross the area around the Thursday time frame. Will need to watch this system for severe potential as well.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Despite expansive high clouds overhead, recent rainfall plus light winds and a very moist low-level airmass should continue to support periods of IFR/LIFR conditions in BR/FG. Area webcams suggest the FG isn't deep enough yet to cause significant aviation concerns. However, the environment appears supportive of some deeper, more impactful, FG development, and this will be closely monitored through the night. Conditions should quickly improve by 12-13z Sunday. Occasional 1/4SM, or lower, VIS will be possible through the night.

On Sunday, mostly dry conditions are expected with prevailing VFR conditions. A southerly wind shift is expected with the afternoon/evening seabreeze, but the risk of SHRA or TSRA along the seabreeze appears very low in the vicinity of any of the TAF sites.

Outlook: A cold front will sag slowly south through ENC on Monday, bringing a chance of SHRA and TSRA and sub-VFR conditions. A northerly wind shift will occur with the cold front, with a period of gusty NE winds expected by Monday afternoon. After Monday, a lower impact period for aviation appears likely on Tuesday. The next chance of sub-VFR conditions is then expected mid-week as the next weather system moves through with a chance of SHRA and TSRA in the WED/THU timeframe.

MARINE

Best boating day this weekend today. Buoys currently show seas 3-4ft@5-7sec. These seas will subside through the day with easing winds through the morning, generally Werly becoming light and variable before turning Serly 5-10kt this afternoon these easing winds will allow the 1ft@5sec wind chop out of the SSW on top of the background swell to fall out further calming seas; 2-3ft@7-8sec out of the SE all the way out to 60+nm. Winds become SW-W at 10-15 kts tonight. Waters inside of ~40nm expected to remain shower and tstorm free though inland rivers may see some seabreeze shower activity, 15-20% chance.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): SWerly winds strengthen some Sunday night into Monday ahead of next fropa with SCA conditions becoming more likely with post frontal northerly flow of 25+ kt MON evening and into Tuesday. SCAs have been issued for all coastal waters and Pamlico Sound this forecast cycle. Further expansion of SCAs to Nern rivers and sounds remains possible, but current forecast is more marginal over these waters currently. Gale potential has decreased some for offshore waters overnight MON into early TUE morning, but the threat for brief periods of gale force gusts does remain over offshore waters S of Cape Hatteras. Winds diminish later Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure briefly reestablishes itself. MON's front lifts back N through the region mid-week ahead of the next front to cross late WED/early THU.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.