textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast this cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms will push offshore early this morning followed by an MCS moving through the Carolinas today bringing chances of rain.

2) Rain arrives this weekend as a low pressure system develops off of the southeast coast on Saturday and drags a frontal system through the area Saturday night.

Marine: Small craft advisory for the central waters continues into Friday. Low pressure passing off the coast will bring heightened winds and seas this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A line of showers and thunderstorms pushing across ENC early this morning will continue to weaken as it moves off the coast. Have seen gusts as high as 25-35 mph earlier as a stronger cell moved through Duplin Co but recently have mainly been less than 20 mph as the line continues to weaken. A cold front will follow the line of storms pushing off the coast shorty after daybreak. Another weak shortwave will rotate through the upper low centered just north of the Great Lakes with an attendant MCS pushing from northern GA and across the Carolinas today. Best chances for precip will be along southern coastal sections with PoPs decreasing the further north you go. Could see an isolated elevated thunderstorm along coastal sections but should remain weak.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance remains in good agreement with a low pressure system passing just off the coast Saturday bringing much needed rainfall to the region. As this is happening, an upper level low centered over Ontario and Quebec will work to deepen an upper level trough that will begin to push a supporting wave out of Texas which will eventually elongate into the frontal system that will accompany the coastal low. The merged systems will push through Saturday into Sunday and move offshore but not before some significant rainfall. Probabilities for at least an inch of rainfall ave increased some, especially inland which is now around 50-60% to around 75% along the coast.

As far as convection is concerned, currently most of the instability remains offshore with northerly flow keeping profiles more stable over land. This should keep rainfall rates low enough to preclude any flash flooding threat, especially when paired with the drought conditions in place. Still a lot of uncertainty in the models regarding how strong the low will get and will have to monitor as the system gets closer.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the period. An MCS will bring a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms to OAJ and EWN (15-25% chance of showers for ISO and PGV) by late morning/early afternoon. Winds will remain northerly at 5-10 kt with precip chances for all TAF sites dropping below mentionable by mid afternoon. High clouds will linger overnight, increasing to BKN tomorrow morning ahead of our next front.

Outlook: Flight conditions will deteriorate Friday night through Saturday as widespread rain and low VIS and CIGs overspread ENC. We'll dry out on Sunday and return to VFR with winds remaining in the 5-15 kt range for the next several days.

MARINE

A line of weakening showers and isolated thunderstorms will push across the waters during the pre-dawn hours which could bring a few brief gusts around 20-30 kt. A cold front will push across the waters behind the line of showers with winds becoming northerly around 10-15 kt today. Late this morning through the afternoon a MCS moves through our waters, with thunderstorm chances returning for warm Gulf Stream waters where instability is the highest. A northerly surge around 15-20 kt develops tonight behind the departing MCS and some of the strongest HiRes models suggesting a brief period of winds approaching SCA criteria. Seas have been around 3-5 ft for most waters but the central waters continues to report seas as high as 6-7 ft. Wave guidance suggests 6 ft seas continue across the outer portions of the central waters through Friday, building some with the wind surge tonight, so will keep the SCA going.

Outlook: Another low pressure system will pass across or just south of the waters late in the week which will likely bring another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday into Sunday. Currently probs for Gales remains quite low at less than 15%.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.