textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will continue over the area from the north through tomorrow before another low pressure system impacts the region Friday morning into Saturday. A front will stall off the southern NC coast behind this system leading to unsettled weather through this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

- There is potential for patchy dense fog and freezing fog overnight, but confidence on any impacts is currently low

- Quiet conditions tonight with high pressure over the region

It remains well below normal this afternoon under mostly sunny skies with high pressure ridging in from the north. Cold conditions are expected tonight with good radiational cooling conditions, and low temps will reach the mid to upper 20s inland, and the mid to upper 30s along the coast.

With strong cooling tonight and a still saturated ground, there will also be potential for patchy fog to develop, and there are indications that what forms could be locally dense by early tomorrow morning. Additionally, with temperatures dropping into the 20s, freezing fog is possible, but confidence is currently low as to whether is will be prevalent enough to cause any impacts on elevated roadways and bridges.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/

As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

- Quiet, dry and below normal conditions continue tomorrow

High pressure will remain over the region tomorrow, but high clouds increasing through the day and low level thicknesses still below normal, we will only see highs in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages

- Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region late in the week

- Potential for precip to begin as snow across Martin and Pitt counties Friday morning, but with temps above freezing to accumulations or impacts are anticipated

The forecast becomes more unsettled starting Friday as a series of lows will move along a stalled boundary offshore and several shortwaves move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances in the forecast through at least the weekend with highest chances being from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Surface temps across northwestern zones will be near freezing Friday morning, which will open the door for a mix of rain and/or snow. Elsewhere, temps will be warm enough to keep the precip all liquid. A large temperature gradient will exist on Friday with highs in the low 40s inland and mid to upper 50s at the coast. Highs won't be much different along the coast on Saturday but will warm to the upper 40s to low 50s inland. Slight chance/low end chance PoPs will stick around on Sunday (highest along the coast) with highs in the low to mid 50s.

The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern half of the CWA with lingering slight chance/chance PoPs. Dry conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure builds back in. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s both days.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

- VFR conditions have returned to all this afternoon

- There is potential for MVFR/IFR fog to develop late tonight and early tomorrow morning

- With temperatures dipping below freezing, there is also a risk of freezing fog developing, but confidence is low as to whether there will be any impacts

High pressure will continue to ridge in from the north tonight and tomorrow, with mostly clear skies expected overnight. This will lead to good radiational cooling, and an associated risk of fog development, which could become locally dense early tomorrow morning. Freezing fog may become an issue in locations that drop below freezing, which looks to be most of inland ENC, but there remains uncertainty as to whether or not there will be any impacts to elevated surfaces/structures/aircraft.

Outlook: The next system is expected to move through ENC Friday and Saturday with another risk of widespread sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

- Good boating conditions continue through tomorrow

- A brief period of Small Craft conditions are possible tomorrow night through early Friday morning

- There is potential for Gale Force winds to develop behind a low pressure system Monday

Winds will continue out of the NNW/NW through tomorrow at 5-15 kts. Thereafter, winds will increase to be N/NNE at 15-20 kts with some wind gusts to 25 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft, but will briefly increase to 3-5 ft tomorrow night.

Outlook: A series of coastal lows will move through later this week and this weekend, bringing solid chances for rain but a low threat of SCA winds and seas (as of right now). Behind the last system Monday strong northerly winds will develop, and there will be a potential for Gale Force winds to develop.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.