textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory for much of the waters north of Cape Hatteras.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers dissipate early this morning as low pressure pulls away from the area and a cold front pushes across the area bringing breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures today.

2) Well above normal to near record high temperatures are expected mid to late next week.

AVIATION...Widespread IFR conditions expected through Monday morning along with a threat for LLWS impacts near the coast.

MARINE...Areas of fog will impact portions of the coastal waters early this morning, with lowest visibilities north of Cape Lookout. Strong Small Craft and Gale conditions will continue through Monday across the coastal waters as the low deepens and pulls away from the coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure currently along the NC coast will pull away from area today while a cold front currently bisecting the area pushes off the coast. The heavier precip has pushed offshore but will see a few lingering showers over the next few hours. Northerly winds ramp up behind the cold front as the low deepens off the coast and high pressure builds in from the west and expect gusts around 20-30 mph inland and 35-45 mph along the coast today. Low clouds expected to linger through much of the morning then some uncertainty with how rapidly skies clear this afternoon. Most HiRes models keep low clouds locked in across most of ENC through the afternoon with areas west of highway 17 having the best chance to see some clearing this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A welcome break from cold as temps climb to well above normal mid to late week as high pressure slides offshore bringing southerly winds across the region. Highs forecast to climb into 70s away from the coast Wednesday through Saturday, while cold waters will keep temps along the coast cooler, mainly in the 50s OBX and 60s southern coastal sections. Some inland locations may approach record temps, which are generally in the low 80s inland, but periods of clouds and chances for widely scattered showers as a few weak systems traverse the area late in the week may keep temps several degrees below record levels.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The heaviest showers are now offshore with only scattered activity remaining across inland zones. The front is working its way across the CWA, veering southwesterly winds to the northwest. As this wind shift to the northwest happens, gusts will increase to 15-25 kt and visibility will improve. Widespread IFR CIGs (500-600 ft) are expected to linger well into Monday morning before improving to MVFR by late morning/early afternoon. MVFR CIGs are expected to linger until tomorrow evening and northwest winds will continue to gust to 15-25 kt through the day. As the low rapidly deepens offshore on Monday, there could be a period of northerly LLWS impacts, mainly for runways along the Outer Banks. By shortly after sunset tomorrow, expect light variable winds and scattered high clouds.

Outlook: Monday night/Tuesday morning, high pressure overhead brings calm winds. If clouds clear in time, the calm winds, clearing skies, and recent rainfall will bring fog concerns to inland eastern NC early Tuesday morning. Along OBX, northerly flow between the high and the departing low will allow sub-VFR ceilings to linger through much of the night, potentially lowering in the form of fog.

MARINE

Areas of fog has developed across the waters with warm and moist SW flow across the cooler waters. Obs and webcams showing the fog most prevalent and dense across the waters north of Cape Hatteras and have issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory through 5 am. Conditions will improve behind a cold front currently pushing south across the area.

Will see strong northerly wind develop early this morning and deepening low pressure lifts away from the area and CAA ramps up behind a cold front. Gale Force winds expected across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound with strong SCA conditions across the remaining sounds and rivers. Seas will continue around 6-10 ft today. Winds diminish fairly quickly tonight but lingering swell from the deepening low offshore will likely keep SCA conditions with seas 6 ft or greater into mid-week.

Outlook: Gradients tighten Wednesday as a system passes to the north bringing the potential for SCA winds and seas across the coastal waters. Conditions improve Thursday into Friday but another round of SCA possible late in the week as another low pressure system traverses the region.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ135-150-152-230-231. Gale Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-154-156. Gale Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ158.