textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable and mostly dry through late week. Another front will approach the area this weekend, becoming unsettled again late weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front has pushed offshore with SFC high pressure building in from the west, while troughing continues aloft. This will keep temps seasonable and mostly dry through late week. Iso showers/storms possible late this evening and into the first half of tonight, mainly across the northern portions of the area as shortwave rotates through the base of the upper trough. The next frontal system will impact the area this weekend into early next week, with increasing precip chances.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with light northerly flow. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening near the coast but otherwise TAF sites should remain convection free. NW downslope flow brought a drier airmass into the region today but given recent heavy rains, mostly clear skies overnight and light to calm winds, cannot completely rule out some brief patchy shallow ground fog pre- dawn Thursday. HREF and REFS probs are below 10 percent for fog development but often don't capture shallow ground fog that well.

Outlook (Thursday night through Sunday): Much drier through the end of the week as high pres rebuilds. Periods of early morning fog and/or stratus possible each night.

MARINE

Latest obs show front is now outside of 60nm with W-NW winds 5-10kt across coastal waters with seas 2-4 ft in its wake. Benign boating conditions in place through the near term.

Outlook: Light to moderate NW winds continue Thu with 2-4 ft seas. Flow becomes more southerly late Fri and Fri night. Nothing significant worth noting through the remainder of the work week until SW winds strengthen ahead of the next system to impact the area this weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.