textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A slow moving coastal low will lift north away from the area by this evening. Over the weekend, a cold front will move through, with another coastal low possibly developing offshore by early next week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 7 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Coastal low to continue to move farther away from the area, with improving weather through evening.

No significant changes in the forecast as low pressure to our north continues to gradually slide N'wards away from ENC this evening. This has allowed winds to gradually decrease this evening with winds forecast to continue to ease as we go through tonight. Could see some isolated sprinkles through this evening as some wrap around moisture filters into the area but this should be far and few in between.

Prev Disc...Finally seeing some improvement over our area as the coastal low that has been impacting us, is now moving north toward the lower Chesapeake Bay. While the heaviest rain remained off the coast since this morning, it wasn't until the past few hours that the wind finally died down. Let the wind advisory expire at 1 PM based on land observations mainly in the 20 to 30 MPH gust range. Duck Pier is still blowing hard but that is handled well by our gale warning. In the wake of the coastal low, a widespread stratus deck has settled in. With temps either side of 70, it feels more like late October than mid September. Clouds hang tough for the rest of the day with some patchy sprinkles.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/

As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Quiet with overnight as the low mentioned above continues to pull northward and weaken. Low clouds still look to linger through the night and this will keep temps from falling too far or generally around 60 away from the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Drier conditions expected mid to late-week

In the wake of today's coastal low, ENC should begin to dry out as westerly low-mid level flow ensues to the south of the departing low. This flow regime should also help support increasing low-level thicknesses and warming temperatures.

By this weekend, a sharpening baroclinic zone is forecast offshore as another front dips south through the area and then stalls across the SW Atlantic. This should lead to temperatures falling back below normal as ENC gets back into a cooler, northeasterly onshore flow regime. Some guidance continues to suggest another low may try to develop along this baroclinic zone over the weekend or early next week, but the signal isn't all that strong for now.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 715 PM Tuesday...Given how guidance has handled the aviation forecast these past 24 hours or so, a sneakily difficult aviation forecast is on tap tonight. Low pressure located to the north is slowly pulling away from ENC with low and mid clouds rotating around this low across North Carolina tonight. Seeing mostly MVFR to IFR ceilings across ENC as of this update with IFR ceilings located along our NW'rn zones. Though as some drier air has snuck into the southwestern zones, some VFR ceilings at about 2,5-3.5 kft at the OAJ terminal. Generally expect this to change little over the next hour or two with MVFR ceilings then forecast across the entire area by mid evening with ceilings sitting about 1.5-2.5 kft tonight. Could see a brief period of IFR ceilings at PGV and points north after 06Z but confidence is lower than normal that this occurs so kept a tempo group in at PGV to cover for this. These low clouds likely hang around into Wed morning before attempting to lift Wed afternoon to VFR levels. As a result have all terminals at MVFR by 03Z and remaining that way until 18Z Wed. Will note this is a lower confidence forecast and could see VFR ceilings across just about all terminals tonight except PGV which is closest to a low pressure system located to our north. Given low cloud forecast fog is not anticipated across ENC tonight.

Some isolated sprinkles are possible tonight but not expecting any significant impacts. Otherwise 5-10 kt NW'rly winds with a few gusts up near 15kts expected tonight and on Wed.

LONG TERM /06Z Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 200 AM Tuesday...Improving conditions expected late Wednesday into Wednesday night with VFR conditions gradually returning. Pred VFR conditions then expected through the end of the period ahead of a backdoor cold front this weekend.

MARINE

SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...

As of 1005 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Rough Marine conditions continue through short term, with winds and waves expected to gradually lessen toward evening.

- All gales have been taken down and small crafts have also been taken down everywhere but the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras.

Biggest change in the forecast over the last several hours has been the decrease in the winds. As a result all gale warnings have been taken down and most of the small crafts that were up across our waters have also been taken down. The lone exception is across the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras where 4-7 ft seas and 20-25 kt westerly wind gusts are still occuring. However, these will likely be taken down by 5AM at the latest given the latest trends in the forecast.

The coastal low that brought us rough conditions on the waters the past 24 hours, is slowing moving north of the NC/VA border. Winds have been slow to come down but are finally showing a diminishing trend. This diminishing trend should be quite dramatic over the next few hours with winds diminishing to under 25 kts over most of the waters, outside of north of Oregon Inlet. The seas will take some time to subside, with buoys still showing over 10 kt east of Duck.

Much improved conditions on the waters Wednesday, as winds back toward the west to southwest. Winds under 20 kts will allow seas to subside to 2 to 4 feet.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually improving conditions mid to late week.

Waves will continue to subside to 2-4 feet by Thursday as weak high pressure builds into the area with winds generally variable around 10 knots. A backdoor front is forecast to push through the region this weekend, and the next round of SCAs may be needed for a northerly surge behind this front.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

As of 815 PM Tuesday...Conditions have gradually begun to improve and after some modest water level rises this afternoon with up to 1 ft AGL of inundation noted north of Ocracoke Island, water levels are forecast to decrease steadily in the coming high tide cycles as winds decrease and seas lay down. As a result, the Coastal FLood advisory across Hatteras Island up to Duck has been allowed to expire as impacts continue to improve as a low pressure system noted to the north continues to pull away from ENC.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152.