textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

General forecast remains the same: entering wet pattern, maybe some severe FRI, little wet, drying, and then hot.

Stronger long period swell leads to increased rip risk across ENC beaches (MOD Rip Threat for all ENC beaches).

Aviation Disco Updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather pattern kicks off today as waves of low pressure travel along dissipating front over the Carolinas.

2) Increasing moisture and improved dynamics ahead of the next front to cross SAT leads to increased risk of stronger storms FRI.

3) Heat increases early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Weakening front and and first of a few waves of low pressure system have lifted NEwards leading to increased moisture and shower activity across ENC. The dissipating front and the resulting SFC troughing present once the front has fully washed out will provide a better focal point for greater coverage of showers and storms ahead of a second front which will cross the area this weekend. Out of all the next 3 or 4 days days, Thurs looks to have the least amount of activity with showers and thunderstorms being more isolated to widely scattered in nature, though this will still be an increase in precip chances as compared to previous days with PoPs generally around 30-50% through much of the day Thurs. Activity ongoing along the OBX and SEern zones this morning and then push inland as the day goes on. Biggest question marks for today will be how focused activity will be, and how much instability can build through the day. PWATs do creep back north of 1.75" and likely get close to 2" as we approach the evening hours Thurs, but cloud cover may cap CAPE values. Dynamics aloft aren't impressive so showers and tstorms that do develop are not anticipated to be very organized. The remnants of the front remain around the area tonight into Fri, promoting even greater chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as moisture and instability continues to advect into the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...With enough instability in place, and subtly increasing amounts of shear as trough aloft over Canada digs toward the Great Lakes tomorrow, a few isolated stronger storms aren't completely out of the question. In addition to this, any shower or thunderstorm that develops will be an efficient rainmaker, potentially bringing torrential rainfall and a risk for flash flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas, and adding to the wind risk via waterloading/downbursts. As such, SPC continues the Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5) of severe tstorms and WPC continues the Slight Risk (lvl 2/4) of excessive rainfall for tomorrow while the FA. Rain continues into the weekend when a front pushed by the digging trough from the Great Lakes will cross the FA first half of the weekend. Temps through the weekend remain seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Behind the departing cold front, upper level and surface high pressure builds back over the area Sun into early next week. This will bring a return to more climatological precip chances along the seabreeze as well as rising temperatures, low to mid 90s/mid 70s splits and MaxAppTs in excess of 100deg from TUES onward next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

Predominantly VFR conditions expected overnight with two possibilities for subVFR in play, but not forecast to be prevailing conditions. With increasing chances for iso to widely sct showers and storms pre-dawn as front that has been stalled to our S gets pulled Nward as wave of low pressure lifts along it. Coverage will be highest offshore and the immediate southern coast, posing a threat for subVFR flight cats over Coastal TAF sites due to reduced VIS. Maintained PROB30 for EWN and OAJ for this risk. Inland, light winds and mostly clear skies put fog and or stratus on the table, but the bulk of 00Z global and HiRes guidance suggest the worst case would be MVFR for inland terminals briefly in the early morning hours. Confidence in this is too low to even include TEMPO groups, but the possibility is still worth mentioning, especially with the increased moisture in the lower levels and the front nearby keeping IFR or lower in play should fog develop. Best chance ISO followed by PGV.

Showers and storm threat will remain elevated through the morning with chances increasing quite a bit in the afternoon with remnants of the front/SFC troughing and sound/sea breezes providing the focal point for development. Expanding the threat to all TAF terminals. Like overnight, torrential rainfall is the main threat but a stronger storm could produce winds up to 30-35 kt.

Outlook: Front remains around the area on Fri. A second, stronger front will approach from the west bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms on both Fri and Sat, some of which could be severe in nature Fri afternoon and evening. This will bring elevated chances at sub- VFR conditions. High pressure builds in from the west on Sun and beyond resulting in more benign flying conditions.

MARINE

Serly winds 5-15kt while seas across the coastal waters remain around 2-4 ft. The most significant change will be the increase in shower and thunderstorm chances as waves of low pressure lifts NEwards along the front that has been stalled offshore the last few days, currently located near the NC/VA border, with troughing developing in it's wake along the Crystal Coast. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible in the strongest storms. Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the day, as well as a slight increase in wind speeds, 10-15kt inside, 15-20kt with some higher gusts outside, primarily along the coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet. Gusts to 25kt outside of storms should be infrequent enough to preclude any marine headlines across our coastal waters.

Outlook: Cold front approaches from the west and acts to weaken the pressure gradient as it nears the area Fri into the weekend. This is forecast to allow for weakening winds back down to 5-15 kts. Seas maintain heights of about 2-4 ft through the extended period as well. Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances continue Fri into Sat with locally enhanced winds and seas possible within the strongest storms. As we get into Sun and early next week aforementioned front pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds in from the west allowing for more benign marine conditions and lower chances for precip.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.