textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cooler post-frontal airmass and northeast flow will lead to a drop in temperatures over the weekend

2) Next chance of appreciable rain comes mid to late next week with a low pressure system moving out of the Deep South.

Marine: A cold front will bring a surge of northeasterly SCA winds and seas through this evening.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front has just cleared the Crystal Coast early this morning and will continue to push south of ENC through the day. In the wake of this front, a cooler northeast flow will support noticeably lower temperatures compared to what we saw yesterday. Over the weekend, highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Along the Outer Banks, highs may struggle to reach the mid-60s. Away from bodies of water, lows should fall into the 40s tonight thanks to a drier airmass and lighter winds. High pressure won't be directly overhead, though, and there will be a lot of high clouds streaming through, which should prevent lows from getting as low as they otherwise could. The same probably holds true for Sunday night as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An amplified upper level trough is forecast to move into the Central U.S. early next week, but that is where confidence begins to drop. By the middle to latter half of next week, medium range guidance varies drastically with the evolution of the upper trough as it shifts towards the Eastern U.S. Most guidance point towards at least a piece of the upper trough getting cutoff from the flow, but where that cutoff occurs, and if it occurs at all, is a big question mark. Meanwhile, for comparison, AI guidance suggests a more progressive and less amplified evolution of the trough as it reaches the East Coast, with less cutoff potential.

While the upper level differences equate to much different sensible weather outcomes, the general theme appears to a pattern that favors a period of southerly flow with milder temperatures, increasing moisture, and the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The forecast is very much subject to change during this timeframe, though, so stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

Light northeast winds this morning are expected to become gusty by mid-morning, with gusts of 20-25kt likely. The post-frontal airmass is dry, and VFR conditions are expected to prevail. The drier airmass should also limit the MIFG/BR/FG risk tonight, despite weakening winds.

Outlook: The northeast flow across the area this weekend will transition to an easterly flow as we move into early next week. Increasing moisture within this flow appears supportive of low CIGs and the potential for BR/FG development (not unlike what was experienced the past few days locally). Some SHRA will be possible as well, especially for coastal terminals (KEWN, KMRH). Of note, confidence is lower regarding the potential for low CIGs and SHRA during this time, but it's worth mentioning the potential.

MARINE

A cold front is moving through the central and southern waters early this morning. Behind the front, obs show winds have quickly increased to 15-25kt, and seas are at 3-4 ft and building. While the strongest winds are likely to accompany the front this morning, persistent, moderate northeast winds should lead to seas building to 4-7 ft for most coastal waters. The one exception is for the sheltered nearshore waters south of Cape Lookout where seas will top out in the 3-4 foot range. The gradient is forecast to relax some by Sunday. However, a re- tightening of the gradient may occur south of Ocracoke Inlet, and 25kt winds may last further into the weekend there than currently advertised. For now, the Small Craft Advisories remain unchanged, but some extension in time may be needed for those above-mentioned southern waters.

Outlook: Northeast flow is expected to last through at least Tuesday, along with elevated seas. By the middle of next week, the pattern is forecast to begin changing, and this should eventually least to an east to southeast flow developing for a change. Guidance is mixed on whether or not a period of stronger east to southeast winds will develop or not mid next week. For now the forecast reflects sub-25kt winds mid to late next week, but the forecast is subject to change, so stay tuned.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158.