textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued Cape Lookout to Surf City to the Small Craft Advisory from Wednesday evening through Thursday night. Extended the Small Craft Advisory for Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout through Thursday night. Probabilities for Gale Force winds has decreased for Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system and cold front Wednesday through Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with a slight chance of non-accumulating snow Thursday morning. Strong CAA behind the front will bring wind chill values in the teens Thursday night into Friday morning.

2) A system with limited moisture moves through Sunday, with another surge of cold, dry air behind it.

MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. SCA conditions possible again for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A robust northern stream trough digs into the eastern CONUS today through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave moving across the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast coast Wednesday which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday evening. There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact track of the low offshore which will ultimately determine precip coverage and amounts across the region. The best precip chances continue to be along OBX and areas offshore where we continue likely PoPs, which tapers to slight chance well inland. Guidance remains limited with precip amounts which shows around a quarter of an inch along the OBX to little accumulation inland. All liquid precip expected through Wednesday evening.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early Thursday morning. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics but sufficient moisture lingers that we could see a brief change over to a rain/snow mix or snow with strong CAA developing behind the front Thursday morning. This will be a typical cold air chasing the moisture, likely keeping us dry Thursday afternoon except possibly for the immediate coast. Additional rainfall amounts will only be a few hundredths of an inch liquid with no snow accumulation expected. The upper level trough axis pushes across the region Thursday evening bringing descent forcing but by this time moisture will be quite limited.

Strong CAA continues Thursday night bringing breezy conditions and temps dropping to around 20 inland and mid to upper 20s along the coast, which will result in wind chill values in the teens Thursday night into Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front is expected to move through the region early Sunday. There isn't much moisture to play with ahead of this front, so precip chance is on the lower side (PoPs 15-20%) and mainly near the coast. NBM called for snow chances, but with sfc temps in the 40-45F range at that time, paired with the drier trend, elected to stick with all rain for the forecast.

Cyclonic flow continues aloft early to mid next week with additional dry fronts/troughs pushing across the region keeping temps well below normal with highs generally in the 40s and lows in the 20s, though could see upper teens in coolest inland spots.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Southwesterly winds 5-10 kts this afternoon will diminish to 5 kts or less overnight, then remain light southerly on Wednesday. Clouds increase late in the TAF period ahead of an approaching cold front.

Outlook: Predominant VFR flight conditions expected through much of the period with high pressure in control. An area of low pressure and cold front will cross through Eastern NC on Wednesday and Thursday, which could produce lowered ceilings and visibilities (MVFR), and light precipitation, which may briefly mix with some snow before ending on Thursday. High pressure returns for Friday into the weekend.

MARINE

Currently seeing WSW winds less than 15 kt and seas around 2 ft across the waters this afternoon. Will see some strengthening of the winds as a low crosses the Great Lakes and high pressure sits offshore, tightening the pressure gradient. This will bring frequent gusts around 25 kts for the warmer Gulf Stream waters tonight.

Winds diminish a bit to around 15-20 knots Wednesday before picking back up to 20-30 knots Wednesday night as a low forms offshore and strengthens. Again, best chance of seeing Small Craft gusts with this low is along warmer Gulf Stream waters with SW flow. Cooler inland sounds/rivers will see much lighter wind gusts with the SW winds thanks to a marine inversion.

A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and could see NW winds bring strong SCA conditions across the waters. Guidance is a little weaker with post frontal winds and NBM probs for Gale Force gusts are below 25%. Continue the SCA for Gulf Stream waters for frequent gusts but have extended through Thursday night given the lower probs for Gales.

Conditions improve late in the week with high pressure briefly building into the area. This weekend, another cold front moves through, bringing elevated winds and seas once again.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ158.