textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence is increasing for a low off the Southeast Coast to develop later this week/weekend and bring impacts to Eastern NC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An anomalously cold airmass is building in and will result in below normal highs and lows through the week. Bitter wind chills are expected each morning with Saturday night/Sunday morning currently forecast to be the coldest period (0-10 degree wind chills).

2) A deep trough will dig across the ECONUS this weekend with a low forming off the southeast coast, which could potentially bring wintry weather to ENC.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Very cold, dry air is blasting in from the NW. Over the next few hours, temps are expected to drop into the teens across the coastal plain and low 20s along the OBX. These cold temps, paired with gusty NW winds, will send wind chills into the 5-15 degree range. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for all of ENC until 10 AM. Below normal highs and lows will persist through the week with highs ranging from 30-45 degrees and lows around 15-30 degrees. Late night/early morning wind chills will be in the 10s to low 20s through the week. The coldest period in the forecast is currently Saturday night/Sunday morning with 0-10 degree wind chills.

KEY MESSAGE 2... An impressive trough will dig across the ECONUS this weekend. Additional key factors in future surface cyclogenesis include the southern and northern stream shortwaves. A southern stream shortwave originating from the Pacific northwest will track south and east across the Gulf states late this week and into this weekend while a northern stream shortwave will simultaneously dive into the SECONUS from the Hudson Bay. These features are forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis off the SE coast with the low deepening as it moves NE over the weekend.

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in this forecast. The strength and track of the low will greatly dictate how this forecast trends, but confidence is increasing that ENC will see marine, coastal, and winter impacts this weekend. The WPC Winter Storm Severity Index shows a 50-60% chance of moderate impacts across ENC this weekend. This is an increase from 20-40% about 24 hours ago. HOW impactful this system will be will become clearer with future updates, so users should be leery of any snow maps this far out.

PoPs will increase Friday night, peak on Saturday, and clear out on Sunday. For now, it looks like snow is the most likely P-type for the coastal plain with the coast being the transition zone and more likely to see mixed precip. This is subject to change as we are still several days out, and it's much too soon to nail down any amounts.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period under mainly clear skies as cold high pressure builds over the region. Gusty NW winds have diminished inland but will see 20-30 kt gusts along the coast (including EWN) for the next several hours before winds diminish here as well. Winds back to SW this afternoon with gusts around 15-20 kt this afternoon, then become light after sunset.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through rest of the work week with arctic high pressure in control. We are monitoring the potential for low pressure to pass along the coast this weekend bringing a threat for sub-VFR conditions, strong winds, and winter precipitation across much of the area..

MARINE

Latest obs show that the gusty NW winds from the reinforcing shot of CAA are starting to subside this morning, so the occasional Gale force gust across the coastal waters should become less likely as we approach sunrise. Conditions will continue to improve into this afternoon as winds back to the SW and decrease to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt and seas fall to 2-5 ft. This will be short-lived, however, as another round of SCA winds is forecast to develop across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound tonight through early Wednesday. Given how brief the period of sub-SCA conditions will be for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet today, the existing SCAs were extended until Wednesday morning to cover both rounds of 25+ kt gusts. Seas will also build back to 4-6 ft across the Gulf waters late tonight.

Outlook: Additional rounds of SCA conditions are expected Thursday and Friday night with Gales developing Saturday and lasting through the weekend.

CLIMATE

Record Low temps for 01/27

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1940 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 19/1940 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 9/1940 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 18/1985 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 11/1940 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18/2003 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ135- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150-152- 154.