textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

We continue to closely watch guidance for a potentially significant winter weather event this weekend. A lot of uncertainty remains with this system, especially in regard to precipitation types across ENC. Over the past 12 hours, the snow probabilities have decreased slightly with ice probabilities increasing.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An Arctic blast will bring below normal temperatures through Wednesday. Wind chills values are expected to drop to around 15 to 20 range this morning and again tonight/Wed morning. The coldest temperatures will come tonight with lows in the teens for all areas away from the beaches with high pressure overhead.

2) An Arctic front will push through the area late Friday with a low pressure system passing along the coast over the weekend bringing a threat threat for winter weather impacts to ENC. Confidence is increasing that winter weather will occur over the area that may bring impactful snow and ice accumulations.

3) Very cold airmass will settle into the area late weekend and early next week, with record cold temperatures possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A dry front/trough will push south across the area early this morning with Arctic high pressure building in through Wednesday bringing well below normal temps. Lows this morning expected in the mid 20s away from the coast and upper 20s to mid 30s along the beaches with light winds bringing wind chill values into the upper teens to mid 20s. Highs today will struggle to reach the low to mid 40s. The coldest night of the week will come tonight with clear skies and light/calm winds allowing for good radiational cooling with low expected around 15-20 degrees inland from the coast and 20s along the coast. Wind chill values will be similar to temps with little wind to speak of. Probabilities still look low for reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria (apparent Temp <15 degrees), so will hold off at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A series of northern stream shortwaves will reinforce deep troughing over the Eastern US late this week through early next week. A strong cold front will push through the area late Friday with Arctic high pressure building into the area from the north setting the stage for maintaining cold temperatures across the region. Low pressure will then develop along the stalled front offshore and pass offshore Saturday night and Sunday, with precip overspreading the area interacting with arctic airmass. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with precipitation types as there is expected be a warm nose that will allow for a melting layer around 850mb and the depth of the cold air below. There is increasing potential for a significant impacts with snow, sleet and freezing rain all possible over the weekend, however it is much too early to try to pinpoint where specific p-types will set up or amounts. Stay tuned to the forecast over the next several days with the increasing threat for wintry wx.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Arctic high pressure will build in early next week with record cold possible. Could see overnight lows and wind chills falling into the single digits...with highs struggling to reach freezing in some areas.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Arctic high pressure will continue to build in through tonight leading to VFR conditions persisting under light winds and mostly clear skies.

Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions expected across Eastern NC through late week as high pressure persists. Next chance for flight restrictions this weekend.

MARINE

Latest obs show W-NW winds 10-20 kt gusting 20-25 kt across the outer waters with seas 2-5 ft. A reinforcing front will drop through the waters overnight becoming NW around 10-20 kt, strongest across the northern coastal waters where frequent gust to 25 kt is possible. SCAs continue through mid morning from Duck to Ocracoke...with NW winds grad diminishing through the day.

Wednesday through Saturday: Light to moderate winds expected through Friday with seas 2-4 ft. An arctic front and low pressure system will impact the waters this weekend, which will likely bring strong SCA conditions and a chance for Gale Force winds over portions of the waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ150- 152-154.