textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased fire danger concerns continue across portions of the coastal plain today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in place for parts of the interior ENC coastal plains today. See Fire Weather Forecast (FWF) for more details.

2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through the first part of the weekend.

3) A cold front will push through the area early next week, bringing increasing rain chances and cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...No change with regards to the forecast or the ongoing burn ban, as NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Despite moistening return flow which has brought MinRHs levels above usual IFD criteria, given the ongoing drought conditions, dry fuels, and strengthening afternoon winds, IFD continues for the same areas as yesterday (inland tier of counties, Duplin Co Nward through Martin Co.) after collaborating with neighbors and the NCFS.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Deterministic and ensemble guidance have continued to showcase a decidedly drier mid to late week, keeping the offshore high anchored offshore, keeping any precip associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC, well to the N of the FA. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast. This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. Adding additional support for the drier scenario is climatological guidance (CFS), which shows a strong signal for below normal precipitation through the end of the week. Consequently, NBM keeps PoPs below mentionable all the way through FRI. Above normal temperatures will continue this week and into the weekend, with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will approach the area Sunday, likely moving through Sunday night and early Monday. Increasing shower chances Sunday and Monday, along with iso thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

With high pressure currently centered well offshore in the central Atlantic, ENC remains in a rather stagnant wx pattern overall over the next few days. VFR conditions are forecast through the period as mostly clear skies remain in place tonight and persist into the morning while winds generally remain S'rly at 5 knots or less. Winds become S-SW and increase to 10-15 kts late Tue morning into Tue afternoon with gusts up to about 20-25 kts for most areas with slightly higher winds noted along the OBX. Diurnal Cu also develops late morning and pushes inland this afternoon with ceilings generally around 4-5 kft keeping VFR conditions in place. Skies once again clear tonight and winds ease to about 5-10 kts for the most part after sunset. Only exception will be along the OBX where slightly higher winds will be noted.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Stagnant weather pattern persists as high pressure remains entrenched offshore. This keeps southerly flow in place while at the same time any significant lift remains off to the NW and W of ENC into the weekend. Given the moist southerly flow off the Atlantic, plus increasing warmth and weak instability, it is expected that there will be daily chances for a SCT to BKN diurnal Cu field. With increasing moisture Wed/Thurs/Fri can't rule out a stray seabreeze shower or storm as well but confidence is low in location and occurrence right now. Though chances are low, cannot completely rule out reduced VIS in BR/MIFG during the overnight and early morning hours through the extended period.

MARINE

Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the work-week, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place through the period. Winds, similar to yday, will strengthen this afternoon and evening as thermal gradient strengthens with peak heating. A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible, but too short duration for SCA at this time.

Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday): A very stagnant weather pattern appears to be shaping up across the area this week. This pattern will be characterized by high pressure offshore, with fronts struggling to make it this far south. This should keep a modest south to southwest flow in place into the weekend. A front will attempt to approach the region from the NW Thursday, but the high is now forecast to remain in place, keeping the front well to the N of area waters. Expect 15-25kt winds and 4-5 ft seas during the afternoon and evenings, lay down overnight and through the early morning until the thermal gradient strengthens again in the afternoon. Gulf Stream waters and far Eern portions of Pamlico Sound most likely to see gusts up to 25kt, but not enough areal coverage to warrant SCA issuance at this time.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.