textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather pattern continues through Saturday bringing periods of locally heavy rainfall across ENC. Friday will see increased potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

2) Heat increases next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend as an upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS and a weakening cold front approaches from the northwest.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon with plenty of moisture in instability in place and a remnant front dissipating across the Carolinas. Storms have remained relatively weak so far with with MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/Kg despite shear increasing to around 25-30 kt, so there remains the potential for a few stronger storms developing this afternoon and early evening. KMHX 12z sounding shows Pwat of 2.15" and could see locally heavy rainfall, especially if stronger storms develop. Cyclonic flow with the potential for weak embedded shortwave moving across the region will keep the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms overnight.

The threat for severe storms increases on Friday as the upper trough axis pushes across the area bringing increasing jet dynamics with the attendant weakening cold front pushing into the region. Instability is progged to be a bit higher tomorrow with MLCAPES forecast to peak around 2000-2500 J/Kg with similar shear in place. Pwat values will continue to be north of 2" bringing the threat for wet microbursts producing damaging wind gusts and SPC has parts in the Mid-Atlantic outlooked in marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms. Greater upper level support and convergence along the sfc front and other lingering boundaries may also lead to locally heavy rainfall bringing an increased risk for flash flooding and WPC has a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the region.

Continued unsettled on Saturday but the upper trough begins to lift north of the area with height rises aloft and weakening dynamics throughout the day bringing a decreasing threat for severe thunderstorms but there remains a marginal risk (1 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper ridging builds into the region from the west for the early to mid portion of next week bringing lower chances for showers and thunderstorms, though near climo chances for storms along the sea breeze will persist through peak heating each day. The main story will be the building heat with highs expected to climb into the 90s early next week and peaking in the mid 90s as we move into the middle of the week with heat headlines possible.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

Predominant VFR conditions this evening but scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring periods of sub-VFR conditions across terminals through the TAF period (best chances Friday afternoon and evening). Though cluster of showers and storms currently moving through the coastal plain could bring sub-VFR to PGV/ISO/OAJ through 02z. The probs for fog and stratus are fairly low given the current pattern but the moist environment is favorable for lower cigs and some reduction in vsbys late tonight and early Fri morning. Have included MVFR conditions and there is a potential for periods of IFR/LIFR conditions, especially is skies clear sufficiently overnight. Better convective chances Fri afternoon, which could bring periods of sub-VFR. These storms have the potential to bring gusty winds and freq lightning.

Outlook: A second, stronger front will approach from the west bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms into Sat. This will bring elevated chances at sub- VFR conditions. High pressure builds in from the west on Sun and beyond resulting in more benign flying conditions.

MARINE

Currently seeing S to Swrly winds 5-15kt across the coastal waters with seas around 2-3 ft. Could see some strengthening of the winds late this afternoon and evening but not anticipating conditions reaching SCA criteria. An active weather pattern will remain in place into the weekend with thunderstorms bringing periods of locally stronger winds and higher seas.

Outlook: Cold front approaches from the west and acts to weaken the pressure gradient as it nears the area Fri into the weekend. This is forecast to allow for weakening winds back down to 5-15 kts. Seas maintain heights of about 2-4 ft through the extended period as well. Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances continue Fri into Sat with locally enhanced winds and seas possible within the strongest storms. As we get into Sun and early next week aforementioned front pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds in from the west allowing for more benign marine conditions and lower chances for precip.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.