textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A warm front will be north of ENC today followed by a cold front pushing through tonight. Cooler and drier high pressure rebuilds Sunday into early next week before another frontal system brings the next chance of rain late Tuesday through Wednesday. Cool and dry high pressure then builds back in behind this system Thanksgiving and the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 3 AM Sat...Low pressure tracking through the DelMarva this morning will be responsible for area of rain showers through the morning across ENC. A break in precip then expected for much of the day as area will be firmly entrenched in warm sector. Pop fcst is then tricky later this afternoon through evening. While there is still a threat for some thunder, the front will still be too far north during peak heating, when CAPE vals aoa 500 J/KG will be difficult to utilize with lack of forcing. Another limiting factor is deep layer westerly flow, which will prohibit a stronger moisture source, and precip very spotty in nature. Have dropped pops back in accordance, with 20-30% chances. Have delayed any thunder until later (after 18z) in the day. Temps will be quite warm and humid, well into the 70s for max T's.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 3 AM Sat...Aforementioned cold front will drop south through ENC this evening. With loss of heating, and limited moisture, storm threat will be minimal, but have kept in slgt chc thunder mention for srn half early in the evening. Then later in the evening, a wave of mid level energy will sweep through from the west, possibly bringing the best chance for a shower to the srn zones, and have a 40% pop for this possibility. Mild lows tonight with lingering moisture and clouds, and may be some patchy to areas of fog developing late tonight. Lows generally in the 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 3 AM Sat...Warm with above climo temps expected through mid next week. Inc shower chances Tuesday into Wed, then dry and cool Thanksgiving through late week.

Sun through Mon...High pressure is forecast to build in behind the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing. Zonal flow will be in place, so temps should be around avg during this period, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows in the 40s. Sun night will be cool with lows in the upper 30s interior to 40s coast.

Tue through Wed...Next chance for rain arrives by Tue, and esp Tue night into early Wed, as shortwave and frontal boundary sweep through. This system has the potential to tap into some GOM moisture, as layer streamlines are out of the sw through the SE CONUS, but timing and mesoscale features are yet to be ironed out, so no higher than 40-60% pops this far out in time. Temps rebound to warmer than climo, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to 50s.

Thanksgiving Day through Friday...Should be on the dry side, as guidance and respective ensembles have trended drier with a clean frontal passage by Wed night. High temps drop back down to below climo, with highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1240 AM Sat...

Key Messages

- Fog/low stratus likely to bring sub-VFR conditions to much of ENC again this morning

- A frontal system will bring additional chances for showers and sub-VFR conditions later today

All of eastern NC terminals currently socked in under very low stratus and fog, locally dense at times in the wake of yesterday's rainfall combined with anomalously warm airmass. Flight restrictions will likely lift in the next couple of hours with an uptick of wind associated with passing disturbance aloft, as well as uptick in light rain which will help mix fog out. Leaned towards HREF guidance as LAMP appears to be hanging onto visibilities erroneously too long given aforementioned factors.

The chance for showers remains for eastern NC across all terminals, especially from dawn to around 15-16z. Guidance then favors a brief dry spell behind this activity before another round of showers (and perhaps a stray thunderstorm) develop ahead of approaching cold front expected to near terminals around 00z. Gusty SW winds expected ahead of the front. Once the boundary pushes south across the region, resurgence of low stratus is expected, along with some fog potential, as moisture pools underneath a strong frontal inversion.

Outlook: Low stratus and fog threat linger into Sunday morning before surge of dry air with cooler high pressure scours out sub-VFR conditions. VFR conditions then likely through remainder of period.

MARINE

As of 3 AM Fri...Fog threat is quickly waning early this morning as swrly flow begins to inc. Solid SCA winds still on track for today over the Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet.

Today...Warm front lifting through the coastal waters, and gradient will inc through the morning as cold front approaches from the north. Should see swrly winds of 15-25kt g 30kt south of Oregon Inlet over the warmer offshore waters. Elsewhere, winds of 10-20kt but will remain below SCA.

Tonight...Aforementioned cold front sweeps south this evening with winds turning nrly. North surge not as strong, so have ended the SCA this afternoon. Seas will be 3-5 ft north of Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south of Ocracoke.

Sunday through Monday...Reinforcing nrly surge could bring marginal SCA winds to the coastal waters Sunday night to early Monday with 15-25 kt possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Return srly to swrly flow ensues with winds inc once again to near SCA criteria for the srn and ctrl waters ahead of a cold front and low pres system.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ131-150-230-231. Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for AMZ135>137-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158.