textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move through on Monday with low pressure developing along it, bringing a wintry mix to portions of the area. High pressure will build back over the area mid week. Another low and cold front move in late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

As of 10 PM Sun...Biggest change was to add areas of fog into the forecast across our coastal plain tonight as recent obs show fairly widespread visibilities of less than 1 mile with some patchy visibility reductions of less than 1/2 mile. A special weather statement is out for Lenoir/Greene/Pitt/Martin counties to account for the more widespread fog and additional counties may be needed in the coming hours if trends persist. Given the current trends wouldn't be surprised if a Dense Fog Advisory would be needed later tonight but will monitor trends before making that decision. Otherwise little else has changed with the forecast for tonight. No freezing fog is forecast tonight as temps look to remain above freezing this evening.

Prev Disc...For tonight, partial clearing occurs, leading to patchy to areas of fog, locally dense at times, esp nwrn counties. No freezing fog expected, as temps will be warmer than last night. Lows range from 32-36 inland, to the 40s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/

Key messages...

- Wintry mix expected Monday afternoon to evening northwest counties.

- Black ice formation Mon night to Tue AM as temperatures fall into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

As of 645 PM Sun...Tricky fcst upcoming with p-type and snow amount challenges for your Monday. Shortwave trough will swing through swings through the Southeast states, while sfc cyclogenesis occurs off the Carolina Coast. A combination of lowering thicknesses through the day, along with column cooling through inc lift/uvv and precip loading will lead to rain changing to a ra/sn mix, possibly mostly snow for our nwrn counties. Model differences abound however, with some of the guidance (NAM/FV3/GFS) indicating a colder column and more rapid changeover to snow, while the Euro, AIFS, CMC, HRRR are warmer aloft and retain snow the far northwest. Have based the forecast and snow amts on the ECM, which as been quite consistent, with any accums relegated to the far nwrn counties. Probabilities for 1" of snow are ~30-60% along the Hwy 64 corridor from Plymouth to wrn Martin county, ~10-30% for the Hwy 264 corridor from Washington to Farmville in Pitt County. This makes the most sense, as temps will be well above freezing through the day Mon, making it difficult for snow to accumulate. The NAM/GFS are too bullish on snow amounts given the warmer initial conditions. By the time temps fall to freezing and below Mon evening, snow should be tapering off quickly from w to e. For the eastern and southern counties, predominantly rain is fcst.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 3 PM Sun...

Key messages...

- Black ice formation Mon night to Tue AM as temperatures fall into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

Dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker possible by week's end, turning much colder next weekend.

Monday night through Tuesday...Biggest impacts from the snow and precipitation will be the development of black ice, as temperatures fall through the 20s during the overnight period. Any rain or snow that falls during the day will freeze up overnight, esp on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses, leading to hazardous conditions for the Tue morning commute.

Wednesday through Thursday...Dry conditions expected as high pressure builds back in at the surface. Highs in the 40s Tue warming back into the 50s to near 60 Wed and Thu as winds become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed morning.

Friday through Saturday...Next chc for precip arrives by week's end, as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS. Latest 07/12Z model suite has trended drier however, so pops have not been raised, and remain at 20-30%. At this time, ptype looks to remain all liquid. Much colder air expected behind the front for next weekend with highs back into the 40s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities continue through dawn Monday morning

- IFR conditions will largely persist through most of tomorrow as rain/snow moves into the area

Conditions have quickly deteriorated over the past couple of hours as dense fog has developed across much of ENC, with all TAF sites except ISO noting VIS at or under 1/2 mile. Guidance has handled the onset timing and density of fog poorly thus far tonight. Current expectation is for fog to persist for another few hours before beginning to mix out around dawn as winds increase as a low begins to develop offshore. While this will likely lead to improving VIS in the morning, IFR ceilings are expected to persist through the morning, with only a low chance (20-30%) of seeing temporary improvements to MVFR ceilings Monday morning. With temperatures hovering at or slightly below freezing across the northwestern portions of the forecast area (across Pitt, Martin, and Greene Counties, and including PGV), freezing fog is also possible tonight.

Rain is then forecast to track into the area starting late morning into the early afternoon from west to east. A changeover to a mix of rain and snow and then all snow is forecast late afternoon/early evening with the greatest risk for this to occur being across PGV/ISO and the northwestern portions of the forecast area. There remains potential for a more widespread changeover to snow (or rain/snow mix) across additional terminals as far south as OAJ/EWN but have opted to only include mention of -SNRA within a PROB30 group for these terminals as of this cycle. Northerly winds increase today, peaking in the afternoon hours with gusts to around 20 kts expected, before decreasing overnight. IFR conditions are likely to continue at least into the evening hours.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions may persist into Tuesday morning before VFR conditions return through at least midweek.

MARINE

As of 3 PM Sun...

Key Messages

- Strong winds and dangerous seas expected Monday and Monday night.

Tonight...Generally light nrly flow cont with speeds of 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft.

Mon through Tue...Backdoor front passes through and strong north to northeast winds develop. Latest 07/12Z guidance has inc winds, and have expanded gales to all marine zones except for inland rivers, with winds speeds of 20-30 kt, gusting to 35 kt expected. Higher gusts up to 40 kt poss on the warmer well mixed outer waters. Seas will quickly increase to 6-10 ft Monday and continue into early Tue, subsiding below 6 ft late Tue.

Wed...The break in strong winds and high seas is short-lived, as a swrly gradient inc later Wed through Wed night, with speeds of 15-25 kt expected, and 25-35 kt over the warm Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet. Seas build back up to 6-10 ft south of Oregon Inlet.

Thu through Fri...Winds and seas relax as high pres builds back into the region, with NW winds generally 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044- 045-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for NCZ029-044-045. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ131-135-150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for AMZ152-154-156-158.