textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dreary conditions today give way to cooler and dry high pressure finally bringing a return to seasonable fall conditions to ENC through mid week.

2) Moderating conditions brings a warming trend back to the region late this week and into the weekend, along with next chance for rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest analysis shows front moving through the Mid-Atlantic and central NC early this afternoon. Later this afternoon and evening, dry air advecting in with this reinforcing boundary and building high pressure will begin a clearing trend from NW to SE with TDs diving well into the 50s and even upper 40s inland by this time Tues AM. Lows will fall into the 50s inland and low 60s for the beaches.

High pres builds further tomorrow into Wed, resulting in very pleasant mild and dry days with highs near climo in the 75-80 range (low 70s OBX), but cooler than normal lows well down into the 50s for the mainland, and perhaps a few 40s for the normally cooler sheltered locales. The strongest signal for this is on Wednesday when the high crests overhead and environment is most favored for radiational cooling.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mid-level zonal flow returns Thu into the weekend, and this will bring a modest warming trend back to ENC. SW flow returns by Friday as a broad but weak mid-level low develops and meanders over the southern plains, bringing a return of Gulf moisture by the end of the week. There are still plenty of details to sort out and some timing differences, but general ensemble consensus is that frontal boundary still stalled to our south will be pulled northward as one or potentially multiple lows develop along it and lift northward. This will bring a return for rain chances, and with the moisture having Gulf origins some heavier rainfall is not implausible.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Widespread MVFR conditions persist across the terminals this afternoon. Drier air will advect in from the NW later this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds into the area. Ceilings will gradually lift from north to south, returning to VFR this evening.

Outlook (Tuesday night through Saturday): Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period, both day and night with lowered dewpoints. Overall fog chances appear low each night at around 10% or less. In the wake of the boundary Tuesday, NE winds may gust up to 20 kt at times especially for the coastal terminals.

MARINE

Latest obs show N-NNE winds 10-20 kt with seas mainly 3-5 ft. SCA headlines remain unchanged (coastal water south of Oregon Inlet) as reinforcing boundary migrates across area waters tonight with high pressure building in its wake. NNE winds will peak at 15-25 kt, strongest south of Oregon Inlet. NE winds will subside to 10-20 kt Tue. Seas will peak at 4-7 ft tonight and early Tue morning, gradually subsiding through the day Tuesday.

Outlook (Tuesday night through Saturday): Northeasterly flow of 10-15 kt expected mid week as high pres will be anchored to the north, and winds/seas remain below SCA thresholds. Deteriorating conditions likely to begin on Friday and continue into the weekend as frontal boundary begins to lift back northward from the Gulf coast with increasing NE winds particularly over Onslow Bay. SCA conditions likely to re-develop over the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ158.