textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat and humidity to continue again today, especially across the southern half of ENC

2) Increased risk of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Monday, some of which could be strong to marginally severe, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and scattered instances of flooding.

3) Brief reprieve from the dangerous heat early next week, then hot and humid conditions return by the end of the week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temps have warmed into the low to mid 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast while heat indices generally in the mid 90s to lower 100 degree range while couple of far southern stations have reported around 105. Still expected additional warming this ahead of any storm development and will continue the Heat Advisory for southern sections, primarily south of US-70 as advertised.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another remnant MCV is pushing across the Carolina piedmont this afternoon and expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to push across ENC late this afternoon. Already seeing a few showers develop this afternoon with instability increasing and could see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon ahead of better forcing with the MCV. Guidance is not showing quite as an organized line of thunderstorms as we say yesterday, likely to to weaker shear over yesterday, but DCAPE and instability are similar and could see stronger storms produce gusty/damaging winds of 50-70 mph.

In the wake of the late-day/evening convection, a frontal boundary is forecast to settle into the area, with areas of low pressure rippling east along it through Monday. Increasing moisture and lift along the frontal zone is expected to support multiple rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. While the pattern appears kind of messy for severe weather, the frontal zone probably helps to boost deep layer shear some, and there may be at least a marginal/low-end severe risk, especially on Sunday. Additionally, multiple rounds of thunderstorms within a moist environment (PWAT values around 2.25") could lead to some hydro issues. This may especially be the case on Sunday when instability and lift will be maximized, favoring the heaviest rainfall rates and amounts. In light of this, WPC has increased the risk of flash flooding from marginal to slight for much of ENC for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...In the wake of the active convective period through Monday, a not as hot northeasterly flow regime will develop across the Carolinas early next week, favoring slightly below climo temps. This will offer a brief reprieve from the dangerous heat of late. The reprieve is expected to be short- lived, however, as heat rebuilds late-week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Pred VFR conditions at the terminals this afternoon with only an isolated shower/thunderstorm threat, but by late afternoon the thunderstorm risk will be increasing as remnant MCV energy pushes across the area. Guidance is showing not quite of an organized line as yesterday so confidence is not that high for impact to specific TAF sites. Sub-VFR CIGs and reduced VIS can be expected with any TSRA. Additionally, the strongest TSRA will be capable of 40-55kt downburst winds.

A frontal boundary drops into the area late tonight which may bring additional showers bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions. The probabilities for sub-VFR stratus remain quite low with highest probs around 20-40% across far northern rtes late tonight into Sunday morning in the vicinity and north of the frontal boundary. To the south the probabilities are less than 20%. Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop Sunday afternoon with the frontal boundary stalled across the area bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): An increased risk of TSRA is expected to last through Monday and possibly lingering into Tuesday, bringing an increased risk of sub-VFR conditions. This is due to a frontal zone and a developing area of low pressure interacting with a moist and unstable airmass over the area. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to return by Wednesday

MARINE

W to SW winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-5 ft across the waters this afternoon. A frontal boundary will drop into the region late tonight into Sunday with winds shifting to N to NE around 10-15 kt to the north of the front. The front is expected to stall over the area Sunday with lighter and somewhat variable winds to the south of the front. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this evening ahead of the approaching front and continue into early next week with the front stalled near the area.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): An area of low pressure is forecast to develop and move east along a stalled frontal zone late Sunday into Monday, then shift east by Tuesday. Some guidance showing occasional periods of 25kt winds and/or 6ft seas developing around this low Sunday night into Monday, and marine headlines may eventually be needed for a portion of the waters, with a better chance on Monday. Boating conditions are forecast to improve by Tuesday or Wednesday as winds and seas lay down with good boating conditions continuing into Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ090>092-094- 193>196-198-199-204-205. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...None.