textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have issued Heat Advisory for most of the area for Thursday.

Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Pamlico Sound for late Thursday and Thursday night and coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet for late Thursday through early Saturday morning.

Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms along a stalled frontal boundary this afternoon will dissipate this evening. Some storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and heavy rain.

2) Dangerous heat and humidity persists across ENC into this weekend.

3) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms later this weekend into early next week as instability builds across ENC.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A moist and unstable environment continues across the region with a frontal boundary stalled across ENC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along the front and sea breeze boundaries bringing area of strong thunderstorms with gusty winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning. Shear remains limited serving to keep storms sub- severe but cannot rule out an isolated severe storm this afternoon before instability wanes this evening. May see a few showers continuing overnight as the front gradually lift back north.

Drier conditions expected Thursday and Friday with WSW flow aloft limited upper level forcing but could see isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...SW flow brings increasing low level thicknesses and warming temperatures and a High Heat Risk across the region Thursday and Friday with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s except lower 90s for coastal areas south of Oregon Inlet. Heat Indices are expected to climb to around 100-110 each afternoon with highest values along the coast and southern sections of the FA. There is some uncertainty with the dewpoint forecast each afternoon, especially inland, as some guidance brings deeper mixing allowing dewpoints to drop well into the 60s inland from the coast, which could keep heat indices from reaching advisory criteria. Have issued a Heat Advisory for Thursday for most of the FA except far NW counties. Temps have trended down slightly for Saturday with most of the area remaining in a Moderate Heat Risk.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An upper level trough/mid level shortwave and surface front approaching from the north and west this weekend an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances is likely. While instability has trended down with a cold front moving into the area from the north and west, could see a few stronger storms this weekend with greater upper level support.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A moist and unstable airmass continues across the region bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across rtes early this evening. Initiation has been along a plethora of frontal/outflow/sea breeze boundaries that are situated across the region. Some storms have been strong to severe bringing wind gusts to 40-60 mph with hail up to golf ball size. The strongest storms early this evening have been south of the Pamlico/Tar River. Storms are expected to weaken through the evening with loss of heating and most guidance shows storms dissipated by 03z. Guidance still not showing very high probabilities for fog or stratus tonight, the coverage of storms this afternoon and evening suggest that the probabilities are higher than guidance is suggesting. Best chances will be across far northern sections, north of the front prior to lifting north of the area, but still cannot rule out sub-VFR conditions late tonight into mid morning just about anywhere. Once any fog/stratus dissipated, pred VFR expected Thursday with less thunderstorm activity, mainly isolated storms along the sea breeze. SW will gust around 20 kt Thursday afternoon.

Outlook (Thursday night through Monday): Mainly iso to widely sct activity expected Friday with a lower threat for sub-VFR conditions. However, as we get into the weekend as an upper level trough and associated surface front approaches increasing chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions will be noted.

MARINE

A frontal boundary is stalled across the waters this afternoon with generally light winds, around 15 kt or less outside of convection, and seas around 2-4 ft. The front will lift north tonight and an area of low pressure will track along it on Thursday, along with an increasing thermal gradient, serving to tighten pressure gradients with SW winds increasing to around 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt with seas building to 4-7 ft. Winds will be strongest across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and have issued a SCA for these areas. Wind relax briefly Friday morning, but then tighten again Friday afternoon as a front approaches from the NW with SCA conditions expected to redevelop over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet.

Outlook (Saturday through Monday): Conditions gradually improve Saturday, then will see a backdoor cold front drop through the waters late Saturday night and Sunday with winds becoming NE around 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. A weak area of low pressure may form along the stalled front to the south Monday keeping E-NEly flow across the waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ045>047- 080-081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ079-090>092- 094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ158.