textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Arctic high pressure eases offshore through mid week with warming temperatures. Another strong cold front then moves through Thursday night with high pressure for the end of the week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/

As of 3 AM Tue...Return flow commences today with moderating temps, but still slightly below climo. Lows have dropped into the teens to 20s and leveled off due to light swrly breezes and inc mtn cirrus building in. For today, large diurnal swing in temps as highs get back into the 45-50 degree range, still below normal but will feel quite a bit warmer compared to last few days. Cirrus should wane through the day with mo sunny skies.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 3 AM Tue...Chilly night tonight with good radiational cooling expected, despite very light swrly flow keeping conditions only slightly mixed. Went with MOS/NBM25 blend and should see lows in the 25-30 range for most, with 30s to near 40 beaches.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 3 AM Tue...

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure continues to slide offshore as gradual warming trend continues (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (20-40%) and peak Thursday night (70-90%) as guidance in good agreement on strongly forced fropa overnight. Thunder chc have gone down as little to no instability in place, esp with the now much colder nearshore shelf/sound waters. A storm may migrate onshore the ctrl/srn OBX off the Gulf and kept in a 20% here for that small threat. No svr expected, but a bout of heavy showers Thu evening may accompany the front.

Friday through Monday...Cold front pushes east by week's end, with dry conditions returning. Zonal flow ensues behind fropa, so temps will actually be above climo behind it, with highs in the 55-65 range and lows in the 30s to 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- VFR conditions expected through the period

No changes to forcast thinking, VFR conditions will continue to persist for all of ENC through the period as high pressure remains overhead keeping sky's clear and the area dry.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through Wednesday before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system. VFR conditions then return this weekend.

MARINE

As of 3 AM Tue...

Key Messages:

- Gale conditions possible for the Gulf Stream waters Thursday night to early Friday as next cold front approaches, with SCA rest of the marine waters.

Today through Wednesday...Moderate to light W-SW 5-15 kt returns through mid week. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday but should be brief and no headlines anticipated attm.

Thursday into Saturday...Cold front approaches on Thu with srly gradient inc to 10-20 kt. Thu night flow inc further ahead of strong front approaching, with srly winds of 25-35 G 40 kt on the Gulf, though remaining 15-25 G 30 elsewhere as stout marine inversion in place with recent arctic outbreak. Seas build to 6-11 ft on the waters south of Oregon Inlet due to the strong srly flow Thu night. Winds turn wrly to nwrly on Friday behind the cold front and may remain elevated in the 15-25 G 30 kt range before diminishing prior to the weekend.

CLIMATE

Record Low temps for 12/16 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 13/1943 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 26/2010 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 5/1958 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 21/1958 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 19/2004 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 20/1968 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.