textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marine conditions continue to improve and have allowed the SCA to expire for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of Ocracoke Inlet.

Latest guidance has trended farther north with the low pressure system this weekend bringing increased precipitation chances.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A progressive pattern continues this week with additional opportunities for rain mid week and again this weekend. There is a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms with the mid week system.

Marine: Elevated seas will continue to bring SCA conditions across the coastal waters north of Ocracoke Inlet into tonight. Low end SCA conditions possible Wednesday night into early Thursday for portions of the coastal waters.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A progressive pattern will continue through the week with another low pressure system progged to push across the area late Wednesday followed by another southern stream system potentially impacting the area next weekend.

Upper ridging over the area today will weaken as dampening shortwave energy approaches the area. Associated low pressure will lift north of the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front pushing into the Ohio River Valley today. Showers and thunderstorms moving into the Appalachians early this morning will push into the piedmont but will dissipate as they approach ENC as forcing weakens. Will see increasing clouds this afternoon but most guidance keeps ENC dry today, although a few do bring light QPF this afternoon. With the sub-cloud layer remaining very dry do not expect more than a few sprinkles at most and continue to PoPs below mentionable.

Another low will pass north of the area Wednesday lifting a warm front through the morning hours with the trailing cold front pushing across the area Wednesday night. A high shear/modest CAPE environment will be in place ahead of the front that could produce strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. 0-6km bulk shear progged to be around around 40 kt, however instability is a bit more uncertain with global models showing mainly around 500-1000 J/Kg, although some HiRes models are over 1000 J/Kg. Current forecast sides with the development of OVC skies associated with the warm front, but there still remains a chance of at least some partial clearing later in the day ahead of the cold front, which could allow some of the higher CAPEs advertised to come to fruition. SPC has the region in a Marginal Risk of severe storms for Wednesday (level 1 of 5). Best forcing will be north of the area and most guidance keeps precip amounts around a quarter inch, however could see higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Run to run consistency among the models continues to be poor for the system next weekend, however 00z guidance has trended a bit farther north with the low, now tracking off the NC coast. Given the inconsistency, confidence remains low in the forecast details, but it is an encouraging trend. While rainfall amounts through the week will not have much impact with alleviating the drought, hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will help reduce the wildfire threat across the region.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Potential for patchy radiational fog to develop across the coastal plain early this morning, but chances appear low at this time (20% chance) and will be quite shallow in nature, so will handle with amended TEMPO groups if needed. If any fog does develop, it should dissipate around or just after sunrise. VFR conditions will persist through the day with light and variable winds and SCT/BKN mid and high clouds increasing through the day.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Another front and weak low may bring sub VFR with some showers and isolated storms Wed afternoon through evening, exiting Wed night with a return to VFR through the rest of the work week. Winds generally in the 5-15 kt range through the period. Another low pressure system may bring widespread rain for the weekend and a return to sub VFR conditions.

MARINE

Current observations showing N to NE winds around 15 kt or less with seas around 3-6 ft. Winds will become variable today as high pressure transits the area, becoming southerly late tonight but should remain less than 15 kt. Seas will continue to slowly subside through tonight becoming 2-5 ft by late tonight allow for the SCA to end for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook: A low pressure system is progged to pass north of the area Wednesday night and could see low end SCA conditions over the nearshore coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet redevelop late Wednesday afternoon night into Thursday. Another low pressure system may pass across or just south of the waters late in the week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.