textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have added a slight chance of flurries between 7-11PM along the northeastern zones as a strong mid level shortwave moves through the region. Otherwise no additional changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potent mid level shortwave will be moving through the Mid- Atlantic tonight which could spurn some light snow flurries across portions of northeastern North Carolina near Dare County.

2) A cold airmass will build in tonight and remain overhead into the weekend resulting in below normal high and low temperatures through the entire week. Early morning wind chills will be very cold through the week with the coldest mornings being Tuesday and Saturday (5-10 degree wind chills).

3) A deep trough will dig across the ECONUS this weekend with a low forming off the southeast coast, which could potentially bring wintry weather to ENC.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold air has already begun to settle into ENC this afternoon with much of the area between the 30s to mid 40s as the arctic front that had brought rainfall to ENC earlier this morning has pushed offshore. Still seeing cloudcover in association with an incoming mid level shortwave that will track across ENC tonight. In addition to this, dry air has been slow to make its way into the area but should continue to push into ENC late tonight with dewpoints falling rapidly and skies clearing from NW to SE. With this in mind, Hi-Res CAMs have recently begun to latch on to the idea that as the mid level shortwave moves through ENC it wil have enough forcing and maybe enough moisture to produce some isolated snow flurries, mainly along our NE'rn zones before we dry out completely late tonight. As of right now the probability of this occuring is low (~20%) but think there is enough model consensus in this feature to include it in this afternoons forecast package. Either way not expecting much if any impact from this so not planning on any headline issuance currently.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Previously mentioned arctic front has pushed offshore with a secondary front bringing a reinforcing shot of strong CAA to the area tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will then build in from the south and west through much of the week. Temperatures will be quite a bit below normal with highs in the 30-40 degree range and lows in the 15-30 degree range. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for all of ENC tonight into Tuesday morning for 5-10 degree wind chills. Wind chills in the teens are forecast each night/morning into the weekend with Friday night/Saturday morning being the next coldest period (5-10 degree wind chills). A moisture-starved reinforcing cold front will move through mid week. A few flurries will be possible across the NOBX Thursday morning, but accumulations are not expected at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3... We will have a complex upper level pattern across the Eastern CONUS this weekend which could result in a strong low pressure system bringing significant impacts to the area.

A deepening negatively tilted upper level trough is forecast to track across the Plains later this week and into the Eastern Seaboard this weekend. At the same time, an active southern stream storm track will bring a mid level shortwave from the Pacific northwest south and east along the Gulf Coast States later this week and into this weekend. As this occurs, a potent northern stream shortwave dives south from Hudson Bay Canada into the Southeast. These two features are forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast with this low then tracking northeastwards while deepening over the weekend.

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the eventual evolution of this pattern and its potential impacts to ENC itself as both pieces of energy are currently still well away from the US, so the upper air network has not been able to sample both pieces of energy quite yet. Either way, if both pieces of energy can phase together off the Southeast coast there is the potential for a rapidly deepening low to bring several impacts (marine/coastal/winter) to ENC including the potential for wintry weather given the cold airmass in place. While nothing is set in stone, global guidance (both deterministic and ensemble) shows a signal for a low pressure system to develop off the coast this weekend. Given this, trends will certainly need to be monitored to hash out the exact severity of impacts to ENC.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions overnight through tomorrow with dry and cold high pressure over the region. 20 to 25 kt wind gusts will continue through early tonight before subsiding toward daybreak.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with arctic high pressure in control through much of the week.

MARINE

Arctic front has pushed off the coast this morning with a reinforcing shot of CAA forecast to push into our waters later tonight. At the moment 10-20 kt NW'rly winds are noted across all our waters with 5-7 ft seas noted along our coastal waters. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate tonight as CAA becomes entrenched across the region resulting in widespread small craft advisory conditions with 20 to 30 kt NW'rly winds forecast tonight with gusts up to 30+ kts into early Tue morning. A few Gale force gusts will be possible for a couple of hours across the coastal waters tonight, but don't think it will be long enough in duration to result in an upgrade from SCA. 5-8 ft seas are also forecast through tonight with the surge of NW winds. Conditions then gradually improve Tue morning into Tue afternoon with winds decreasing to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts and backing to a SW'rly direction while seas fall to 2-5 ft resulting in an end to all SCA's by Tue afternoon. Will need to monitor conditions for Tue as another brief round of SCA conditions will be possible.

Outlook: Additional rounds of SCA conditions are possible Tuesday night, Thursday, and Friday night with the potential for Gales this weekend.

CLIMATE

Record Low temps for 01/27

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1940 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 19/1940 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 9/1940 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 18/1985 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 11/1940 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18/2003 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154.