textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A weak cold front pushes through the area this morning with high pressure spilling over the area through the remainder of the weekend. Warm front lifts northward through the Carolinas late Sunday leading to brief warm up and the next best chance of light rain ahead of a stout arctic cold front that will pass late Monday. Wintry temps return through early next week. Another front set to cross late-week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 0100 Saturday...

Boundary draped between two low pressure systems gets pulled through the Sern half of the FA through the overnight. The stronger low currently located S of the Great Lakes pushes ESEward through the day while a developing, and weaker, low lifts NEward offshore of the OBX. Primary focus tonight will be developing weak low pressure system traveling NEward just offshore of the Carolinas. Center of circulation just off the NC coast just E of Cape Hatteras. As the offshore low lifts away to the ENE, increased moisture convergence along the dragging boundary may lead to some increased low level stratus and patchy fog in the early morning hours. As light SFC winds veer from SWerly to NWerly, this pocket of increased moisture will advect toward the coast before burning off and mixing out.

Clouds will linger through the overnight period and diurnal curve into Saturday morning will be remarkably flat as lows hover in the low to mid 40s.

Warm FROPA overnight will quickly be replaced as boundary advances Sward again as a cold front, this time with a surge of drier air in its wake in the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies expected inland, although increase of CAA-associated strato-cu offshore will likely make for more overcast and dreary conditions along the Outer Banks. Stark temperature gradient, typical of northeasterly flow regimes, anticipated with upper 60s to near 70 south and west of US 70, but only 50s for highs across NOBX and areas adjacent the Albemarle Sound.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 0115 Saturday...High pressure builds down the coast with light NEerly flow at the SFC and ridging approaching from the W. Dry forecast in place with post frontal low level cloud deck persisting over NEern zones, slowly advecting SWward while eroding. MinTs mid to upper 30s inland, mid 40s immediate coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 0120 Saturday...

Key Messages... - Warming Sunday night into Monday and next best chance of rain. - Strong Arctic front passes through late Monday. - Cool through early week, moderating midweek ahead of next front to cross late week. - Dry weather expected through bulk of work week.

High pressure continues to build down the NECONUS coast before sliding offshore Sunday afternoon. In the wake of the departing SFC high, Serly winds develop allowing WAA to kick off with a warm front lifting through SUN night ahead of the next system approaching from the W. MinTs markedly warmer and an uptick in clouds and rain chances SUN night. Strong WAA through the column ahead of vertically stacked low traveling Eward across NCONUS will lead to MaxTs approaching the mid 70s with a chance of some showers ahead of the Arctic front set to pass through latter half of Monday. Trough axis aloft shifts offshore TUE with another low diving down across the Great Lakes pushing the next front through late week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 2 AM Sat...

Key Messages

- Patchy fog and low stratus possible through mid morning

- LLWS impacts likely through early this morning

- MVFR CIGs possible along the Outer Banks tonight

VFR conditions currently across the sites early this morning. Drying westerly flow has allowed lower cigs to sct out early this morning. HiRes guidance has picked up on a possibility of a pocket of moisture in the lower levels working NEward from the southern half of the state with the front leading to patchy fog and/or low level stratus encroaching SWern zones towards sunrise.As the low lifts away to the NE and light SFC winds veer from SWerly to NWerly, this pocket of increased moisture will advect toward the coast before burning off and mixing out. TEMPO sub-VFR conditions will be possible, with best chances at ISO and OAJ. Low CIGs are expected to mix out completely by mid morning as drier air continues to filter in from the west and north, lowering the risk of sub VFR conditions for TAF sites. Along the Outer Banks could see MVFR scu develop late this afternoon and tonight with N-NE flow. Strengthening westerly low-level jet aloft looks supportive of several hours of LLWS impacts through early this morning.

Outlook: Periods of sub-VFR CIGs will be possible Sunday evening and into the overnight with moisture underneath the inversion and again Monday ahead of the approaching cold front. A period of gusty southwest winds appears likely Monday, with gusts as high as 20-25 kt accompanying early week frontal passage.

MARINE

As of 0140 Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Multiple rounds of SCA likely through the weekend

- Still eyeing a risk of Gales for at least offshore waters early next week

Seas remain elevated tonight for most offshore waters despite as weak wave of low pressure lifts ENEward off OBX, dragging a warm front with it. This front pushes back south Sat afternoon, bringing a renewed surge of northerly winds at around 20 kt sustained with higher gusts.

Offshore zones and soundside waters will likely experience multiple lulls in winds and seas with the rapid changing of winds. SCAs in place for all coastal waters due to lingering 6ft seas followed by the Nerly surge of 25kt+ gusts expected this afternoon and evening. Pamlico, Croatan and Roanoke sounds been added to the SCA list for the afternoon and evening.

Outlook: Winds temporarily improve over latter half of the weekend, but seas may remain at or above 6 ft as long period swell moves into marine waters, especially central waters off Hatteras. S-SWerly winds increase again Monday morning in advance of a strong cold front with widespread Small Craft conditions and possibly Gale conditions developing over warmer GStream waters. Waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke may be under continuous headlines for the next several days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ135-231. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ156- 158.