textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased winds for this afternoon through tonight behind backdoor cold front.

Decreased spurious northern OBX temps through the Day 1-7 period.

Added Neuse River to SCA suite tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chance of showers and thunderstorms for south zones this afternoon.

2) Drier and cooler conditions behind Saturday's backdoor cold front.

3) Next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives Mon ahead of the next cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chances for showers and thunderstorms re-enter the forecast this afternoon ahead of a backdoor cold front. Greatest PoPs are concentrated mainly south of Kinston/New Bern/Cape Hatteras line, and with plenty of instability, thunderstorms are a possibility (30%). Areas of enhanced lift from FROPA and sea breeze interactions could generate a strong to severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging wind gusts, but the overall severe threat is more muted given that the best shear will be displaced to the north. Another limiting factor for a more sustainable thunderstorm threat is lack of appreciable moisture, as GOM will be cut off as a moisture source. Nevertheless, thinking that with sharp sfc forcing and CAPE pooling ahead of the backdoor front, will be enough to spark some thunderstorms, and thus likely pops remain in the fcst for srn 1/3 of the FA, while northern areas will be rain free.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and drier air will take over behind the front with lows dipping to the mid 50s inland/low 60s OBX Sat night and Sun night. Below climo highs on Sunday will be in the mid/upr 70s inland to upper 60s/low 70s OBX. TD's will plummet as well, making it feel quite refreshing and a welcome respite from the heat and humidity.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temps will start to rebound on Monday with inland highs approaching 80 as high pressure moves offshore and SW flow resumes. The next cold front will cross the area late Monday/early Tuesday and bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Good chances for rain with pops in the 60-80% range, peaking Mon afternoon through mon evening. Some wrap around showers may be in the picture for Tue as a low pres area forms off the front in the offshore waters, but chances are low attm.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions forecast to continue through the TAF pd as high pressure migrates offshore and southwesterly flow remains steady ahead of a backdoor cold front forecast to dive out of the mid- Atlantic this afternoon.

Backdoor cold front will race through this afternoon into the evening, bringing winds around to the NE and inc. Have included a tempo group for gusty nerly winds this evening as several hours of gusts approaching 20 kt. Have a prob30 for thunderstorms for KEWN and KOAJ, as southern areas of ENC could see some stronger storms capable of producing gusts in excess of 40 kt along with tempo reductions in vsby with areas of heavier showers. Northern terminals should remain dry.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): The next chance of showers will be on Monday into Mon evening ahead of another backdoor cold front. Drying out Tue into Wed as cool high pres reestablishes itself across the region.

MARINE

SWerly winds this morning 15-20 kt with ocnl gusts to 25 kt as the gradient inc ahead of approaching front. THe backdoor cold front will move across the waters from NE to SW through the afternoon, quickly veering the winds to the NE with gusts to 25-30 kt starting this afternoon and lasting through this evening. Seas will respond by building to 5-8 ft and peaking tonight. SCAs have been expanded for Neuse River as favorable wind direction of 60-90 degrees allows for funneling up the Neuse.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): NE winds will relax on Sunday, but 6+ ft seas will linger, esp for the ctrl coastal waters Ocracoke to Oregon Inlet into Monday with large swell 6+ ft continuing here. Another round of SCA winds/seas Tue into Wed as low pres could form offshore and produce gusty N to NE winds and 6+ ft seas.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EDT Sunday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for AMZ158.