textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cancelled the Gale Warning for the outer waters south of Oregon Inlet.

Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Pamlico Sound into Friday Morning.

Issued a Freeze Watch for Saturday Night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong cold front to bring breezy and colder conditions this weekend, along with a risk of widespread frost/freeze conditions.

Marine: Elevated winds and seas will continue across the waters through the weekend as a series of cold fronts push through the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unusually strong upper level trough will persist over the Eastern CONUS through the weekend bringing a much colder airmass to the region with temperatures well below normal. The initial cold front pushed offshore last evening and CAA will continue to ramp up overnight with temps in the low to mid 40s inland and around 50 coast by daybreak. It will be noticeable cooler today with highs around 60.

Another strong shortwave and attendant cold front will push through late today and tonight bringing another surge of NW winds. Guidance is suggest sufficient forcing and just enough moisture remaining in the lower levels for a few showers to develop during the evening hours, similar to last evening. Rainfall amounts will be nominal with only a few hundredths at best. CAA will continue Friday night with lows dropping into the mid 30s inland to mid 40s coast. Current thinking is that there will be enough of a breeze to limit the frost potential tonight and will not issue a Frost Advisory at this time. Temps on Saturday will be well below normal with highs in the mid 50s.

Probabilities are higher for frost/freeze conditions away from the waters Saturday Sunday nights as high pressure builds in and winds begin to diminish. Many areas are forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s with coldest conditions expected along and west of highway 17 and have issued a Freeze Watch for this area for Saturday night. There is a possibility for a Frost Advisory for several zones to the east of highway 17 but will let future shifts evaluate as we get closer to the event.

Much below normal temps continue through early next week with highs in the 50s to around 60 and lows in the 30s inland to 40s coast. A gradual warming trend will occur mid to late next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. Strong cold front has cleared all terminals this hour ushering in cooler air and NW winds at around 10 kt, and this will continue through sunrise. After daybreak, expect a return to gusty conditions with the occasional gust to 20 kt. A reinforcing front will push across terminals late this afternoon, bringing with it another surge of NW winds, broken to overcast mid-level cloud decks, and a few showers which may cause localized flight restrictions.

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions are expected over the weekend and into early next week with winds easing by Saturday evening.

MARINE

The initial cold front has pushed through the waters and winds have become W to NW around 15-25 kt and gusts to around 30 kt. Have expired the Gale Warning for the outer coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as wind gusts have dropped below Gale Force. Winds are a bit stronger than expected across the Pamlico Sound with reports of gusts to 30 kt, so have issued a Small Craft Advisory here for the rest of the overnight.

Winds relax some on Friday ahead of a secondary cold front that will push through the waters Friday evening with a reinvigorating NW surge around 15-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt developing through Saturday. Seas around 4-6 ft in the near shore waters and 6-8 ft for the outer waters will subside some today but will rebuild with the renewed NW surge tonight into Saturday.

Outlook: Winds and seas will gradually diminish Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure builds in and expect sub-SCA conditions through the rest of the forecast period.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090>092-193-198. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.