textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will remain in place across the Southeast U.S. through Friday. A weak area of low pressure then passes south of ENC this weekend, with high pressure building back in by early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Well below normal temperatures to continue through Wednesday

Through tonight, high pressure will be centered over the Southern Plains, but will extend east across the Southeast U.S. Meanwhile, a sprawling area of low pressure will reside over SE Canada. The pressure gradient between these two features looks to support a modest westerly flow across ENC through tonight. Despite dewpoints in the teens and clear skies, low temperatures tonight probably won't get as cold as they otherwise could thanks to the light westerly flow. That said, the Arctic airmass in place is certainly supportive of well below normal temperatures. Combined with light winds, it will feel like the teens tonight, and some of the more sheltered areas are likely to actually fall into the teens. Temperatures and wind chill values in the teens will put us close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria tonight. However, it doesn't look like a slam dunk setup due to marginal temps and winds. In light of this, and after some internal collaboration with NWS Wilmington, it was decided to hold off on any cold weather headlines for tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Low pressure will move SE across the Great Lakes during the day Wednesday, then move east across New England Wednesday night. An associated cold front will move across the Ohio Valley during the day, reaching Virginia/WRN NC by Wednesday night. Ahead of that front, the pressure gradient will tighten some, especially as troughing develop in the lee of the Appalachians. It appears that this will lead to a slight bump up in winds during the day and continuing into the night. Please see the FIRE WEATHER section below for additional information regarding the combined impact of the wind and a dry airmass.

The west to southwest flow across the Carolinas on Wednesday should give highs a bit of a boost up thanks to downslope warming effects. This is expected to translate into not quite as cold temperatures Wednesday night (compared to tonight).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 0220 Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Seasonable temps mid week through early next week

- Chance of rain appears to be decreasing for much of the area this weekend Thursday through Friday...A series of weak shortwaves will push through the area for the latter half of the work week bringing periods of mid and high clouds. But, deeper moisture will be lacking and therefor expect dry conditions to prevail with zonal flow. A dry front will push through the area Thursday evening and stall south of the area Friday with brief high pressure building in.

Saturday...A fast-moving shortwave, and an associated surface low, is forecast to traverse the Southern U.S. on Saturday. Model guidance continue to favor a more suppressed, and weaker, system, with a low pressure track south of ENC. Consequently, most guidance now shows the greatest chance of rain being focused to the south of ENC. In light of this, the chance of rain has been lowered for much of ENC with the latest forecast update. The greatest chance looks to be along, and just inland of, the Crystal Coast.

Sunday through Monday...Low exits the area with high pressure rebuilding into the region bringing a return to dry weather and mo clear skies. Temps will remain near climo with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 845 PM Tue...VFR conditions expected across the terminals tonight as high pressure builds over the region from the southwest. Airmass is too dry to support any fog risk, but may see a brief uptick in orographically forced cirri overnight. Mainly clear skies tomorrow with westerly winds gusting to 15-20 kt at times.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the end of the week with a low end chance for sub-VFR conditions to return Fri night into Sat.

MARINE

As of 845 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Elevated winds and seas to linger into this evening south of Oregon Inlet

- Another round of elevated winds and seas still appears likely Wednesday evening into Thursday

0720 PM Update...Seas continue to quickly fall and short term guidance has trended lower on expected winds overnight, so SCA has been dropped for offshore waters. A few infrequent gusts near SCA are not out of the question through midnight.

Moderate northwesterly winds of 15-20kt are expected to continue across the area through tonight, with occasional gusts to 25kt over the warmer coastal waters. On Wednesday, winds become more westerly, but will remain in the 15-20kt range. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, west to west-southwest winds are expected to build to 15- 25kt as a cold front approaches from the north with a stronger pressure gradient. During this time, a more widespread area of 25kt wind gusts appears likely. Seas of 4-7ft this afternoon are expected to lay down to 3-5ft by tonight. Seas will then build back to 4-7 ft Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as winds build ahead of the approaching cold front.

Another round of marine headlines appears likely to cover the building winds and seas Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

Thursday through Friday...Back door dry front moves through late Thur with Nerly wind surge bringing SCA to the sounds and remaining waters through early Fri morning.

Weekend...Strengthening low pressure works Eward from SECONUS, pushing off the coast somewhere from GA to SC latter half of Saturday. Guidance continue to show a more southern track with this low, but potentially still passing close enough for a risk of elevated winds and seas across the central and southern waters. High pressure builds back SUN into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 1 PM Tue...

Key Messages....

- Potential remains for increased fire danger conditions this afternoon and once again on Wednesday as low RH's combine with breezy winds and dry antecedent conditions

No real change in the forecast thinking for this afternoon. We will continue to see the potential for increased fire danger conditions across the area with low RH values (~25-35%), breezy WNW winds, and dry antecedent conditions. Will note, while RH's are low and soils remain dry, wind gusts will be lower (15-20 kts) so criteria for headlines may not be met.

On Wednesday we will once again have a similar setup, with breezy WSW'rly winds, low RH's; though slightly higher than on Tuesday (~30-40%), and continued dry antecedent conditions which could once again bring a risk for increased fire danger conditions across ENC. Once again the limiting factors will be the weaker wind gusts (~15-20kts) and with slightly more moisture in place as RH's are slightly higher. This should limit a more robust threat.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.