textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will build overhead tonight before pushing offshore on Saturday night with the approach of a cold front. A coastal trough will also set up on Sunday as the high moves offshore. The cold front then moves through Sunday night. This will be followed by a notable coastal low impacting the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then briefly returns by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 230 PM Friday...

Key Messages

- The coldest air of the season will remain in place through Saturday

Clear skies, a steady northwest breeze, and cold temps are noted across ENC this afternoon as high pressure continues to work its way into the area. This has resulted in temps getting into the 40s across the region this afternoon and we should begin to quickly cool down as we near sunset.

As we get into tonight, high pressure builds overhead allowing for clear skies and light to calm winds across the region. This will bring a great radiational cooling setup to the Mid-Atlantic. With dewpoints only getting into the teens to low 20s across ENC this afternoon, temps are forecast to crater once the winds ease up under the clear skies tonight. Have gone lower than most guidance given this, with lows in the 20s inland and low 30s noted along the OBX. While there could be some high cirrus trying to sneak into the area near daybreak think the high cirrus will be thin enough to not have much of an impact on temps tonight. Will note there is a chance the more sheltered locations get into the upper teens, especially if we decouple sooner.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 230 PM Friday...

High pressure gradually shifts offshore Sat into Sat night with a coastal trough setting up across the offshore waters overnight Sat. This should turn the winds to a NE'rly direction. Temps may moderate some on Sat as low level thicknesses increase slightly. Either way, temps wont be too much warmer tomorrow but could see temps near 50 inland and get into the lower 50s across Hatteras. The coldest spot may actually be across the NOBX where NE flow will act to limit temps with highs potentially only getting into the mid 40s. As we get into Sat night, increasing cloud cover and winds eventually turning to the SE as a coastal trough moves inland should allow for a slow but steady warming trend overnight after about midnight, so Sat nights low will likely occur just after sunset.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 145 AM Friday...

Key Messages

- Growing signal for a notable coastal low to impact ENC early next week

An active weather pattern appears to be shaping up from late this weekend through the upcoming work week. During this time, upper level troughing is forecast to develop across the central U.S., with southwesterly flow developing aloft across the southern U.S. At the SFC, a notably strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast this weekend, then lift NE through the Southeastern U.S. early next week. More on that momentarily.

Prior to the coastal low, a separate coastal trough is forecast to develop off the ENC coast Saturday night and move inland on Sunday. A cold front is then forecast to sweep SE through the area Sunday night. Increasing low-mid level moisture overspreading the increased forcing with the developing coastal trough looks to support a quick round of light rain Sunday evening-Monday morning.

Attention then turns to the above-mentioned SFC low that is forecast to track NE out of the Gulf Coast States. The majority of guidance now depicts low pressure taking on an inland track as it moves through the Carolinas and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Also noteworthy is that the majority of deterministic guidance have trended deeper with this low, now suggesting a 1000-1005mb low as it moves through ENC. While the signal is growing stronger for a deeper system, not all guidance is quite bought in yet. Namely, ensemble and machine learning guidance, which have a weaker system. All that to say that a strong coastal low appears increasingly likely, but there remains some uncertainty with the track and intensity.

In light of all that, the most likely scenario at this point is for a coastal low to pass inland across ENC, putting our area on the "warmer" side of the system. Not only does this lower the risk of any wintry weather, it also opens the door for some instability to edge closer to the area. The potential for some convective elements, plus a plume of anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of a period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low. Case in point, ensemble guidance now shows a stronger signal for 1"+ of rain. Additionally, various forecast aids like NAEFS and ECMWF's EFI also show a notable signal for heavy rain. The rain is much needed as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. Given the recent dry conditions, the area should be able to handle 1-2", or more, of rain. However, some minor nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out for areas that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rates (where convection occurs).

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we'll have to closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle.

High pressure briefly builds in towards the middle of the week, but this may be short-lived as yet another coastal low may impact the area towards the end of next week.

Temperatures look to be mild on Sunday as southerly flow develops across the area. Temps fall back down on Monday in the wake of Sunday night's cold front. Temperatures then bounce back up on Tuesday (assuming an inland low track). Temperatures then level back off on the cooler side in the wake of the departing low.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1240 PM Friday...

High confidence in VFR conditions through the period as cold high pressure builds over terminals from the south and west. Main aviation concern will be gusty northwesterly winds the rest of this afternoon as pressure gradient remains pinched between building high pressure and expansive low pressure over eastern Canada, but this will become calm after sunset as high becomes dominant.

Airmass likely too dry to support any fog outside of very shallow patches in well sheltered areas. Modest uptick in high clouds tomorrow morning with winds veering northeasterly at 5 kt or less.

Outlook: The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front approaches, and along with it a chance for subVFR cond developing. Coastal low expected to bring rain to the area Tuesday, subVFR flight cats probable.

MARINE

As of 230 PM Friday...

Key Messages

- SCA in effect for all offshore waters north of Cape Lookout into this evening

- Deteriorating marine conditions likely early next week with an increasing threat of Gales

Steady NW to W breeze is noted across our waters this afternoon with widespread 10-20 kt winds and gusts up around 20-25 kts. Seas along our coastal waters are around 4-6 ft. With winds easing the SCA's across our inland waters have been allowed to expire with SCA's remaining up along the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout. Winds and seas should quickly ease over the next few hours with winds falling to about 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20 kts tonight while becoming more N'rly as high pressure ridging builds overhead. Seas along our coastal waters should also fall to 2-4 ft. This will allow the remaining SCA's to fall off with more benign boating conditions expected through Saturday. Winds become NE'rly at 5-10 kts by Sat afternoon as high pressure ridge begins to shift offshore while seas lower to 2-3 ft. Winds eventually become SE'rly across our waters overnight Sat into Sun as a coastal trough sets up bringing a risk for some isolated showers to our waters while seas continue to remain around 2-3 ft.

Outlook: The primary focus next week will be the increasing signal for a notably strong coastal low to impact the ENC waters Monday night through Tuesday. Most guidance have trended stronger with this low, and our forecast now shows a period of gale-force winds for much of the coastal waters, and widespread 25kt winds elsewhere. It should be noted that on the higher end of guidance, high end gale to storm force winds are within the realm of possibility, especially over the warmer waters adjacent to the Gulf Stream. This should also support building, and impactful, seas. Mariners are encouraged to stay tuned for updates through the weekend regarding this system.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 1245 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Fire weather concerns remain through late afternoon with gusty winds and low relative humidities.

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe drought conditions with a long duration of little to no rainfall. Dry air remains as Tds fall well into the 10s and RHs dip into the 25-30% range. In addition, wind gusts will be near 20mph today with isolated higher gusts to 25 mph. Considering the drought conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall season progresses, fire weather concerns remain marginally elevated the rest of today.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 152-154-156.