textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marine Dense Fog Adv remains in effect for the northern waters, Croatan and Roanoke Sounds through tonight. Lowered precip chances through Fri morning given latest trends in guidance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend continues through tomorrow bringing well above normal temperatures to ENC. High temperatures may approach record values on Friday.

2) Low pressure system is forecast to bring unsettled conditions to ENC late this weekend into early next week.

Marine...

There is a chance for gale force winds late this weekend into early next week across our waters as a rapidly deepening low pushes off the Mid-Atantic Coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)...High pressure remains well offshore with a cold front located to the north. This has kept the area in the warm sector for the most part and despite the widespread cloud cover, inland temps have reached the 60s to 70s this afternoon. Along the OBX widespread 50s are noted with some seafog encroaching across the the northern OBX. Given the aforementioned front will be moving little through tonight, expect fairly expansive seafog across these waters to potentially advect slightly further south later tonight as steady SW'rly winds bring warm air over the cooler waters around the area. Highs expected to reach the upper 70s to near 80 on Friday. Record highs for Friday are in the lower 80s inland from the coast and the record values for established climate sites can be found in the CLIMATE section below. Across the immediate coast and OBX, below normal water temperatures will keep these areas cooler with highs in the 50s to 60s each day. The one caveat that may keep temps from reaching records on Friday will be the extent of clouds and scattered showers as a few weak systems traverse the area. Biggest change in the forecast through Friday is the reduction of PoP's through Fri morning as much of the forcing should remain to the north allowing for just isolated to widely scattered showers at best across portions of ENC mainly north of Hwy 70 into Fri morning. Could see some light drizzle tonight as well across our northernmost counties but confidence was not high enough to include it in the forecast.

Key Message 2)...Guidance remains in good agreement with a positively tilted shortwave tracking across the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains late this week with the trough taking on a more negative tilt and deepening slightly as it pushes off the coast early next week. At the mid levels southern stream shortwave quickly traverses the CONUS reaching the Southeast by Sun/Mon while a northern stream shortwave dives S'wards at the same time potentially phasing with the southern stream as it pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, cold front will drop SE'wards across ENC on Sat and stall around the area with a wave of low pressure then riding along this stalled front and deepening after it pushes offshore bringing chances for rain and maybe some weak thunderstorms to the region this weekend. Precipitation gradually ends from west to east Sun night into Monday with strong CAA ramping up behind the departing low as it rapidly deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast allowing temps to fall into the 30s. There is a chance for a non impactful rain/snow mix towards the end of the event this weekend Sun night into Mon. However, this will likely be the typical cold air chasing the moisture setup so have little confidence in any other ptype besides rain. A shortwave rotating through the departing low may keep low clouds and light precip lingering through Monday. We will also need to be on the lookout for stronger winds on the backside of the low as it departs and deepens as this could bring additional coastal impacts worst case scenario.

Biggest challenge with this setup will be when the low begins to deepen as a weaker and more out to sea low track will result in lower impacts from this system while a stronger and closer to the coast track will bring greater impacts to the area.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions currently across the terminals, with moderate to high confidence in sub-VFR developing overnight and Fri morning. Challenging forecast with stalled front near the northern portions of the area as well as sea fog.

A weak front sinks S toward the FA, but guidance has trended more optimistic, keeping the front JUST to the N of all TAF sites before lifting back Nward the latter half of today. Widespread lower cigs expected to overspread the area tonight from north to south, all sites could see IFR, with best potential at PGV. SE TAF sites likely to reach MVFR CIGs closer to day break FRI. Areas of light rain/drizzle will be possible through the period, with best chances across the northern half through tonight and better chances Fri. Lower cigs expected through the first part of Fri, then grad expected to lift to VFR Fri afternoon, likely by 21z, though sea fog may continue to impact portions of the coast, before vsbys likely to improve Fri eve. SW winds gusts 15-25 kt Fri afternoon.

Outlook: Periods of rain and lower CIGs likely this weekend with the same cold front eventually crossing ENC Fri night and a developing low traveling along the boundary later in the weekend. VFR likely to return by Fri evening and cont through at least mid day Sat. MVFR and IFR flight cats possible Sat night and Sun as an area of low pressure travels through the area along the front that will have stalled to the south bringing likely rain and lower CIGs/VIS into early next week.

MARINE

Marine Dense Fog Adv remains in effect for the northern waters and Croatan/Roanoke Sounds through tonight. May need to be extended further southward later today and tonight. Will continue to monitor.

No significant changes to the forecast as high pressure remains offshore while a weak backdoor cold front drops south into the northern waters before lifting back north tonight. With a much weaker pressure gradient in place, SW'rly winds persist at about 5-10 kts across all waters, though some 4-6 ft seas do remain in place across our central waters. This has kept the small craft advisory up for the coastal waters between Cape Lookout and Oregon Inlet. Expect winds to remain light through tonight generally remaining around 10-15 kts with slightly stronger winds noted over the Gulf Stream waters. Winds then pick up slightly to 10-20 kts across all waters with some gusts up to 25-30 kts across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. This will keep SCA conditions in place with our far southern waters also seeing SCA conditions starting Fri morning with these conditions persisting into Fri night. Seas will increase to 4-7 south of Oregon Inlet and 3-5 ft north of Oregon Inlet.

Warm air traveling over the cool SSTs we've had lately, especially over Nern waters, with moisture pooling and changing winds near the boundary have led to the development of sea fog across our NE'rn zones and a marine dense fog advisory remains in place there. More pessimistic guidance has sea fog covering all nearshore waters down through the Crystal Coast tonight into FRI. With this in mind will need to continue to monitor how far south seafog gets as e get into tonight but additional marine dense fog advisories may be needed further south if the more pessimistic guidance verifies.

Outlook:A strong low pressure system is forecast to impact the coastal waters on Sunday with strong SCA to Gale Force conditions likely Sunday night into Monday as the low rapidly deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The strength and location of the low will go a long way in determining what conditions our coastal waters see so continue to keep a close eye on forecast trends in the coming days in case the forecast trends more optimistic or pessimistic.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for Friday 02/20

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 81/1991 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/2018 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 81/2018 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 73/1994 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 82/1939 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 82/1991 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ150-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for AMZ158.