textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast has trended notably drier and warmer mid to late week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increased fire danger continues for much of ENC today, potentially continuing again on Monday

2) Guidance trending warmer and not as unsettled mid to late week

Marine: Elevated seas to linger into this afternoon for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide. Despite a moistening return flow developing, it may take at least one more day to get the higher relative humidities more firmly entrenched across ENC. Probabilistic guidance suggests parts of Lenoir, Greene, Pitt, and Martin Counties may see RH drop below 40% during peak heating/mixing on Monday. It's this area where an additional Increase Fire Danger Statement (IFD) is being considered. Beyond Monday, surface and mixed boundary layer dewpoints should steadily increase, with increasing RH as well. This should lower fire concerns beyond Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended decidedly drier mid to late week associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach the eastern Carolinas. In fact, some guidance now shows no precipitation over the next 7 days, which is quite the change from yesterday's model guidance. This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. The one holdout is machine learning guidance which still suggests the potential for the front to briefly make it this far south with a day, or two, of scattered convection. Adding additional support for the drier scenario is climatological guidance (CFS), which shows a strong signal for below normal precipitation through the end of the week. Consequently, blended guidance now keeps the chance of measurable precipitation at, or below, 30% each day during this time. Blended guidance has also trended about 3-5 degrees warmer each day later in the week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are anticipated over the next 24 hours. As high pressure moves offshore, the flow will shift from easterly today to south or southwesterly on Monday. The return of southerly flow will help to draw modest low-level moisture back north into the area, and this should continue to support periods of FEW/SCT cumulus clouds at 4-5k ft. Despite the moisture return, the risk of impactful FG appears low. If anything, there may be periods of shallow FG (MIFG) or BR.

Outlook: It appears that a fairly stagnant weather pattern is in the cards for ENC over the next several days thanks to high pressure anchored offshore, and appreciable lift remaining off to the NW and N of the area. Given the moist, southerly flow off the Atlantic, plus increasing warmth and weak instability, it is expected that there will be a daily round of a SCT to BKN cumulus cloud layer, with reduced VIS in BR/MIFG during the overnight and early morning hours. Occasional sub-VFR conditions will be possible where BR/MIFG develops, but there doesn't appear to be any one day or night that stands out as having a better chance over another regarding widespread sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

Boating conditions have trended much less impactful today compared to this time yesterday. As of early this afternoon, winds are generally northeast to east at 5-15kt with higher gusts. Meanwhile, seas remain elevated at this time, and are in the 4-6ft range across the coastal waters.

With high pressure shifting offshore today, the flow will become more southerly with time, but remain modest (10-15kt). For the coastal waters, seas should lay down below 6ft by this evening. A seas-driven Small Craft Advisory remains in effect south of Oregon Inlet until then. On Monday, southwesterly winds of 10-15kt and seas of 2-4ft will be common.

Outlook: A very stagnant weather pattern appears to be shaping up across the area this week. This pattern will be characterized by high pressure offshore, with fronts struggling to make it this far south. This should keep a modest south to southwest flow in place for much, if not all, of the upcoming week. A front may attempt to approach the region from the NW Tuesday- Thursday. While it now appears less likely that this front will get this far south, it may get close enough to support a tightening of the pressure gradient, and the potential for 20-25kt winds and 4-5ft seas at times.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152- 154-156-158.