textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front crosses through ENC tonight with high pressure building through Christmas day. A warm front moves through late Friday with next chance for rain. An arctic cold front moves through late Sunday with a return to cold by early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 3 PM Tue...Cold front still set to move through, as winds are swrly acrs ENC with clearing skies from nw to se. Behind the weak cold front CAA will be meager, and expect lows to remain in the mid to upper 40s as the boundary layer remains mixed and TD's relatively high. Could see some patchy to areas of fog develop, esp if winds become calm. Best chc would be acrs nrn tier where a bit of rain fell earlier today.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/

As of 3 PM Tue...High pressure will continue to build in from the southwest and northwest Christmas Eve. This will keep nnwrly flow at the surface while low level thicknesses remain above normal. It will actually be a warmer day than Tue due to downsloping flow and sunny skies, with highs overachieving into the 70 degree range for most of ENC. Cooler 60s along the OBX with adjacent cold water.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 3 PM Tue...

Key Messages...

- Mostly dry conditions expected into this weekend with only some minor chances for light rain

- Above normal conditions continue through this weekend, with highs in the 65-72 range each day (except Friday which will be cooler in the 50s to low 60s)

- A pattern changing arctic cold front will move through the area Sunday or early Monday and bring a return to below normal temps early next week

Christmas Day...A strong ridge of high pressure will develop across the Gulf States pumping warm swrly winds into ENC. This will give us warm temps in the 60s (beaches) to low 70s (interior).

Friday through Sunday...Brief cool day Fri behind backdoor cold front with highs near climo in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warm front then pushes north Friday night with perhaps best chance for overrunning light rain, with 20-60% pops, highest nern zones and lowest swrn zones. Temps warm up behind front with swrly flow ensuing and highs in the 60s beaches to low 70s inland this weekend.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Next cold front sweeps through late Sunday with next chc of rain, but only small chances as GOM will be cut off with most of the energy and moisture being absorbed by the Appalachians. Much colder air mass builds in behind arctic front with highs in the 30s-40s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1245 PM Tuesday...

Low clouds across ENC this afternoon are expected to steadily decrease through the afternoon from west to east as drier air moves in aloft. While drying will occur aloft, the near-surface layer is expected to remain fairly moist through tonight, and with light winds, this may allow a risk of BR/FG to develop. For all TAF sites, probabilistic guidance only shows a 10-20% chance of sub VFR VIS developing. However, this risk is probably a bit higher for areas where rain fell earlier today. For the TAF site, this would include KPGV. This is something we'll continue to monitor in later TAF updates, but for now the risk appears too low to mention yet. Drier low-level air then filters in on Wednesday as a weak surface boundary moves through. That boundary will lead to a northerly wind shift, along with a bump up in winds.

For the rest of this afternoon, a moderate southwesterly low- level jet will continue to support a risk of LLWS impacts for all TAF sites.

Outlook: Generally quiet through the end of the week with VFR conditions expected for much of ENC.

MARINE

As of As of 3 PM Tue...

Key Messages...

- Gale conditions over the Gulf Stream waters between Oregon Inlet and Cape Lookout through this evening. Small Craft conditions will be seen over the northern coastal waters.

- On Wednesday, a surge of northerly winds will bring SCA for Croatan/Roanoke/Pamlico sounds and keep high seas in place for the coastal waters.

- On and off Small Craft conditions expected for the Gulf Stream waters the weekend with general swrly flow. Tonight...Strong marine inversion keeping winds in the 5-10 kt g 15 kt range for Pamlico Sound and remaining sounds/rivers. Just offshore however, Diamond Shoals gusting to gale force due to warm waters provding good mixing. Should remain sub SCA through this evening for the sounds, but gales cont for the Gulf waters ahead of cold front set to sweep through late.

Wednesday...Northerly surge brings brief SCA to Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Wed afternoon. The SCA will linger longer over the coastal waters with high seas 6+ ft hanging on through Wed evening.

Thursday...Return swrly flow brings another bout of SCA for the Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet. Backdoor front brings nerly surge of SCA or near SCA for all sounds and coastal waters.

Friday through Sunday...Winds and seas relax below SCA on Fri. Light winds through Sat with good boating conditions. Next Front moves through late Sun with SCA conditions developing Sun night.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ135-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ158.