textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through next week.

2) Light stratiform rain and stiff Nerly winds linger through this evening in the wake of a cold front currently working offshore.

3) Much cooler and drier conditions early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). Today's rainfall is expected to be less than 0.10" for most, which is not enough to alleviate these drought conditions.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Strong N winds behind the front today could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. Winds could gust up to 30-35 mph for a brief period right behind the front inland.

Deep mixing in the afternoons tomorrow and Wednesday afternoons allows for relative humidities 20-25% and wind gusts around or above 20 mph. Tuesday we will reach low RH's, but winds should remain light with high pressure overhead.

A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold front has pushed offshore at time of writing. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible along and ahead of the front, with lighter stratiform rain working from W to E behind the boundary. Chance for thunder over land areas within the FA continues to dwindle, quickly becoming highly unlikely. Current forecast calls for less than a tenth of an inch total for most mainland areas with highest amounts associated with more convective showers along the immediate coast and portions of OBX, one or two tenths.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A substantially cooler and drier airmass will move into the region for tonight. Skies rapidly clearing tonight and winds becoming light, potentially decoupling will allow MinTs MON morning to drop into the upper 30s inland, mid 40s Inner Banks, low 50s OBX. MON, another, albeit weaker and completely dry, cold front sags S through the FA, with winds temporarily being light and SWerly in the morning ahead of the front. Highs back down closer to Normal for this time of year, upper 60s to around 70 in SWern zones. MinTs TUE am a degree or two cooler than tonight. High pressure behind the second front last through the remainder of the work week leading to a warming trend from 80/mid 50s split WED through the bulk of the work- week. A cold front approaches Nern portions of the FA, but most likely stalls while dissipating before completely crossing the area. Next chance for rain next weekend when another front will cross.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. The cold front has pushed through and light rain is now east of the terminals. Drier air will continue to filter in overnight with clearing skies later this evening. Wind will quickly diminish this evening as well with light to calm winds developing overnight. This could lead to shallow patchy fog, though currently think drier air will limit that threat. Monday will see light winds in the morning, becoming W to NW with gusts to around 15-20 kt in the afternoon with sct to bkn cu with bases around 7 kft.

Outlook: Pred VFR expected most of next week but could see patchy late night, early morning fog at some terminals.

MARINE

Cold front currently working offshore, located along a SW-NE line from ~40nm E of Hatt to ~10-20nm SE of Lookout. Thunderstorms expected to persist ahead of the front with a band of lighter stratiform rain lagging behind the boundary by a few hours. Strong Nerly winds directly behind the front, generally 20-30G35-40kt. Strongest gusts will linger in the wake of the front for an hour or two and are being covered with SMWs to cover the gale force conditions as the duration is too short to warrant a Gale Warning, save for offshore central waters where the lone Gale warning persists. Offshore Gulfstream waters from Ocracoke Inlet S likely to see 40-45kt gusts, but the duration here is expected to be even shorter. Buoys show seas 5-7ft, with further building expected through sunset, peaking @ 8-9ft over outer waters. Active marine headlines step down through the overnight as winds relax and seas lay down. Winds potentially becoming completely calm over inland waters, 10-15kt over coastal waters, 15-20kt outer waters around sunrise. The cold air and calm winds could lead to some fog over inside waters in the early morning hours.

Another cold front is slated to cross regional waters through the day MON, but this is forecast to be mostly dry with weaker winds. Winds briefly become SWerly ahead of the front 10-15kt and slightly stronger out of the N behind it, 10-20kt with 25kt gusts possible over coastal and outer waters as well as far Eern portions of Pamlico Sound. SCAs may be needed for the post frontal surge, but those will have to wait until active headlines are dropped tonight.

Outlook: Generally N-Nerly winds through into mid week before becoming SW TUE night/WED. Winds strengthen from midweek on ahead of a front slated to approach from the N but likely stall over Nern portions of regional waters FRI. Another back door cold front approaches the Carolinas late- week bringing shifting and elevated winds. Conditions deteriorate again second half of next weekend with better chances of a front, and perhaps a Low pressure system, crossing the area.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 136-137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ182-184.