textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Introduced small pops through Wednesday mainly for coastal counties.

Increased pops on Friday ahead of fropa.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through Thursday.

2) Chance of more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms on Friday ahead of a cold front.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the fropa for this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and synoptic setups through the period. Where guidance is fairly well clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be shifting east out of the Central U.S. While there is still some potential for a cutoff low to develop, most guidance have now trended towards more of a progressive and open wave as it moves through the Eastern U.S. Before that happens, low level flow will be from a moist easterly direction over the next several days, which will advect favorable regime for on and off light rain, esp for the coastal areas through Thursday. For the rest of today, light showers with eastward progressing shortwave energy is not handled well by model guidance. Have inc pops manually to account for isolated to widely scattered showers. The same holds true through mid week, and ENC will cont under influence of e to se flow and hence a daily chance for widely sct showers. Have inc pops both Wed and Thu as a result. Don't expect much in the way of accums, but enough to wet the ground in places, esp the further east in ENC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most guidance is now centering on the best chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms moving in Friday. Perhaps some WAA showers on Thu with warm front migrating through, as well as perhaps a rumble of thunder as well, but main forcing mechanism for showers and storms arrives on Friday ahead of a cold front. For this reason, pops are raised to 40-50%. Of note, some guidance are showing anomalous moisture and higher- than- normal instability for early November, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. This would support the potential of some higher rainfall rates and totals should this materialize. A few stronger storms may even materialize if timing of showers arrives in the afternoon coinciding with peak heating. The other aspect of the forecast that appears to be coming more clear this week is the potential for above to well above normal temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday, and esp during the overnight periods. While record highs may not be broken, warming low- level thicknesses in advance of the approaching trough should support highs warming into the 70s, with some low 80s possible inland. Meanwhile, overnight lows are forecast to be closer to our normal highs for this time of year. Some record warm lows may be in jeopardy. For reference, normal highs are 65-70 for early November, with normal lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Better agreement amongst 02/12Z model guidance with fropa now late Friday, which will usher in a more seasonably dry airmass for the coming weekend. Return to mo sunny skies and highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions with bkn high clouds continues early this afternoon. Winds are light nerly.

Later this evening and tonight, some mid and upper level drying may scour out some of the extensive high level cloudiness of late. Should this occur, it could support slightly better radiational cooling conditions and an increased risk of BR/MIFG/FG development. The latest short-term guidance continue to show modest probabilities of this occurring (30-50% chance). There is still some uncertainty regarding how much clearing will actually occur, so no sub-VFR conditions have been introduced into the TAFs just yet. At face value, guidance favors KOAJ, KPGV, and KISO for the best chance to see a period of reduced VIS. Any fog or low stratus burns off Tue morning with return to VFR and cont light winds.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Coastal troughing near ENC may support periods of low CIGs and SHRA for eastern terminals esp EWN and MRH. With increased low- level moisture, there may also be a nightly risk of BR/MIFG/FG at all TAF sites. Best chance of more widespread showers and perhaps a thunderstorm arrives on Friday ahead of a cold front, and with it a more appreciable risk of sub- VFR conditions. Back to VFR with dry high pres building in this weekend.

MARINE

A pinched surface gradient has relaxed with nerly winds diminishing to 10-20 kt and seas 3-4 ft, with some 5 ft sets outer waters. Light nerly winds will cont tonight into Tue, while slowly veering to an erly direction.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Coastal troughing is forecast to remain in place through at least the middle of the week, with the strongest gradient and highest winds focused across the central and southern waters. The flow then begins to become southeasterly by Thursday in the wake of the inland-advancing coastal trough and warm front. Winds will cont in the 10-20 kt range with sub SCA seas. Thursday and beyond, a better chance for some advected 6+ ft seas as weak low pres develops well offshore, though winds will remain below 20 kt. Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds turning nwrly behind the fropa but should cont remaining below SCA thresholds. High 6+ ft seas may linger into Sat however.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.