textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

An arctic cold front pushes through ENC this evening. A return to cool conditions through mid week before a dry cold front moves through Thursday. A low pressure area brings widespread rain on Saturday, with high pressure returning next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

As of 3 PM Mon...Clearing skies and strong CAA develops behind the front with gusty NWerly winds through this evening. Temps will fall steadily tonight, dipping into the 40s just after sunset and continuing to cool to MinTs into the upper 20s inland to 30s coastal sections with wind chill temps in the low/mid 20s all areas by daybreak tomorrow. Contemplated a wind adv for Hatteras and Ocracoke Isl, as post frontal nwrly winds will gust to ~45 mph at times, but shorter duration (less than 3 hours) will preclude a headlines attm.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/

As of 3 PM Mon...Cold and crisp day in store as max T's only top out in the mid 40s, a stark contrast to the 60s and 70s observed on Mon. Brisk nwrly winds will make it feel colder, with gusts to around 20-25 mph at times.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 3 PM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Below normal temps into mid week.

- Seasonable temps mid week through early next week.

- Low pressure brings widespread rain on Saturday. Tuesday night/Wednesday...Arctic high pressure ridges into the area cyclonic flow persisting across the eastern CONUS bringing mainly clear skies and cold temps. Tuesday night will be the coldest night of the period with lows in the 20-25 range, even close to the coast as winds will be light to calm. The airmass begins to moderate Wednesday with highs around ~50.

Thursday through Friday...A series of weak shortwaves will push through the area for the latter half of the work week bringing periods of mid and high clouds but deeper moisture will be lacking and expect dry condition to prevail with zonal flow. A dry front will push through the area Thursday evening and stall south of the area Friday with brief high pressure building in.

Saturday...The upper trough begins to lift out late in the week with a southern stream shortwave traversing the deep south and moving just south of ENC. Better model agreement amongst 28/12Z suite and their respective ensembles lead to likely pops for most, esp southern half where 60-80% in the forecast now.

Sunday through Monday...Low exits the area with high pressure rebuilding into the region bringing a return to dry weather and mo clear skies. Temps will remain near climo with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 710 PM Mon...

Key Messages

- Breezy northwest expected into the overnight hours - Clear but breezy again Tues under clear skies

Cold front has quickly transited area terminals tonight with the front now clear of the Outer Banks. Skies rapidly clearing overhead with only some lingering cirri, but clear skies expected to prevail and then continue through 00z Wed. Main hazard for aviation interests will remain breezy winds with ongoing gusts up to 20-25 kt, although infrequent gusts up to 35 kt are possible for a few hours while frontal boundary remains nearby. Across the Outer Banks, gusts up to 40 kt are likely.

Winds become more steady after midnight, but then become gusty again tomorrow in downsloping northwesterly flow. Gusts to 20-25 kt are expected, up to 30 kt for OBX terminals.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the end of the week with a low end chance for sub-VFR conditions to return Fri night into Sat.

MARINE

As of 3 PM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Gales through this evening for waters and Pamlico Sound.

- Generally westerly winds in the 10-20 with ocnl gusts to 25 kt late Tuesday through mid week. SCA more likely Gulf waters Wed night with sw winds increasing.

- Dry cold front moves through late Thursday with better potential for widespread SCA developing in winds and seas in it's wake.

Through Tonight...Swrly gradient bringing solid gales of 40-45 kt to the Gulf waters this afternoon with stout SCA winds of 25-30 kt elsewhere. Arctic front passes through by around 6 pm with gales cont for the coastal waters + nrn waters and Pamlico Sound due to strong CAA and good mixing. Gusts to 40 kt expected through around midnight before gradient grad weakens through the overnight.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Wrly flow expected through mid week with general winds in the 10-20 kt range with gusts to 25 kt at times. Better chance for SCA for the Gulf waters Wed night with wswrly gradient inc gusts to around 30 kt.

Thursday through Friday...Back door dry front moves through late Thur with nrly wind surge bringing SCA to the sounds and remaining waters through early Fri morning.

Weekend...Strengthening low pressure works Eward from SECONUS, pushing off the coast somewhere from GA to SC latter half of Saturday. Rain appears widespread with this system, along with increases in winds and seas though depends on the low track and strength with details yet to be worked out.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 1 PM Mon...

Key Messages....

- Potential remains for increased fire danger conditions on Tue as low RH's combine with breezy winds and dry antecedent conditions

A brief period of increased fire danger conditions may develop across the coastal plain after about 3/4PM behind a cold front, with dewpoints falling rapidly combined with gusty WNW winds. This threat however would likely be short in duration if it occurs at all, with RH's generally not tanking until after about 3/4PM and only getting down to the 35-45% range. As we get into Tuesday, we will once again have the potential to see increased fire danger conditions across the area with low RH values (~25-35%), breezy WNW winds, and dry antecedent conditions. Will note, while RH's are low and soils remain dry, wind gusts will be lower on Tue closer to 15-20 kts so criteria for headlines may not be met. Will continue to monitor trends and update as needed.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135-150-152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ136-137.