textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased winds early this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures through tonight with patchy frost possible inland

2) Another frontal system to impact ENC late-week

Marine: Elevated winds and seas expected to last into this evening. Gale-force winds to last several more hours this morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A post-frontal airmass is now firmly entrenched across the Carolinas this morning. This airmass is very dry and is characterized by notably cool low-level thicknesses. This combined with increasing mid and high clouds should make it hard for highs to get out of the 50s. This is a solid 20-30 degrees colder than yesterday! The temperature forecast becomes more tricky tonight. Guidance continues to strongly suggest periods of mid and high clouds streaming east across the area. Meanwhile, a notably strong SFC high building over the area will lead to light winds and decent radiational cooling conditions. How widespread the clouds are tonight will likely factor into how cold it gets. Given the higher level nature of the clouds, radiational cooling effects should still be present, but perhaps slightly muted. In light of this, and the lower than normal low-level thicknesses, I went below blended guidance, especially across the typically colder inland locations. This should support some areas dropping into the low-mid 30s, with patchy frost possible. Because of uncertainty regarding cloudcover, we'll hold off on any frost/freeze headlines with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next cold front to impact ENC is slated for late Friday or Friday night. Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to quickly rebound back above normal, especially Thursday and Friday. Increased moisture advection along the southward- advancing frontal zone looks to support the next appreciable chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Instability continues to look meager, though, and severe thunderstorms are not anticipated at this time. Behind this front, another surge of northerly winds is expected, along with cooler, below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Gusty, post-frontal NE winds (20-35kt) will continue for several more hours overnight. Winds are expected to remain gusty into Tuesday morning, but the peak gusts should gradually come down, especially inland away from the coast. A notably strong area of high pressure then moves in Tuesday night with even lighter winds expected. Periods of mid and high clouds will stream across the area over the next 24 hours, but any CIGs should be VFR.

Outlook: A weak coastal trough may allow SCT to BKN low clouds to advect inland off the Atlantic at times Wednesday into Thursday, but confidence in sub-VFR CIGs during this time is low due to uncertainties with the strength of the trough, and how much moisture will be associated with it. The next cold front is forecast to reach ENC late Friday, pushing offshore by Saturday morning. Similar to this recent front, there will be a risk of SCT SHRA, isolated TSRA, and a notable northerly wind shift. Once again it looks like there will be a risk of 20-35kt wind gusts behind the front. Sub VFR conditions may develop as well, especially where SHRA develop.

MARINE

Strong northeasterly winds of 20-30kt are ongoing early this morning across all waters, with higher gusts. For some of the warmest waters, gusts as high as 40-45kt have been observed. These conditions will continue for at least several more hours, then slowly begin to lay down during the day today as high pressure builds in. Winds will further lay down tonight as the high becomes more firmly established across the region.

For the coastal waters, seas of 6-10ft are forecast to last through early this afternoon, then slowly lay down to 3-5ft by tonight. For the nearshore waters closest to the Crystal Coast, seas of 4-6ft this morning are forecast to lay down to 2-4ft by tonight.

Outlook: Much improved boating conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure in control. The next round of impactful winds and seas is expected Friday into Saturday as the next cold front moves through. Once again, a period of northerly post-frontal gales will be possible.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-154-156- 158.