textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased pops for Wednesday (Tomorrow) with warm front/weak coastal trough lifting through.

Continued the trend of increasing pops Friday ahead of a cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through Thursday.

2) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms on Friday ahead of a cold front.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the fropa for this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and synoptic setups through the period. Where guidance is fairly well clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and open wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the week. Before that happens, low level flow will be from a moist easterly direction this evening then switch southeast on Wednesday as weak warm front/coastal trough lifts through, which will produce some widely sct showers. Continued higher than advertised NBM pops for these widely scattered showers, best chances during diurnal heating. No real accums of rain expected, but enough to wet the ground in places. Area is firmly entrenched in swrly flow Thu, but with no forcing in place, pops are generally less than 15% except for the OBX, which may ocnl be plagued by some showers skirting the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most 03/12Z guidance is converging on Friday with widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms during the afternoon into evening with a wet cold front moving through. Of note, some guidance shows anomalous moisture and higher- than- normal instability for early November, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have increased the thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices, with slght chc thunder probs for coastal counties. If best forcing lines up with peak heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas esp west of Hwy 17 Fri afternoon. Main threat would be damaging winds.

Very warm and humid airmass in place, and nightime lows will esp be very warm, and be closer to our normal highs for this time of year. Some record warm lows may be in jeopardy. Highs through Fri will be near 80 inland with 70s coast, and lows will be in the 60s. For reference, normal highs are 65-70 for early November, with normal lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with fropa late Fri, which will usher in a more seasonably dry airmass for the coming weekend. Return to mo sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and lows generally in the 40s. Warmest day will be Sat.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Light east flow cont today with VFR skies. For tonight, good radiational cooling is expected under clear and calm winds, which would lead to a good setup for some fog. However, based on persistence from this morning, many places were spared widespread fog development. For this reason, did not indicate any IFR fog exept for PGV, which has widespread fog last night. For coastal areas, some stratus may from time to time advect onshore and will limit any br/fg. Any fog burns off quickly on Wed morning, with winds veering from east to southeast through the day. A few showers many afflict EWN, MRH, and OAJ, but not enough coverage or intensity to include in the fcst.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): Periods of low CIGs and SHRA will be possible off and on Wednesday and Thursday. A more notable risk of SHRA, as well as TSRA, comes on Friday as a cold front moves through. A risk of sub- VFR conditions will likely accompany this front as well. SE/S/SW flow will generally dominate through Friday.

MARINE

High pressure will remain in place to the north with coastal troughing along the coast. Latest obs show NE-E winds 5-15 kt with seas mainly 2-4 ft. Light winds will continue through the day today (strongest across the southern and central waters). Seas 2-4 ft will continue nearshore and 3-5 ft offshore. Iso to widely sct light showers will be possible through mid week.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): The winds become south to southeast by Thursday in the wake of the inland-advancing coastal trough and warm front. Winds will cont in the 5-15 kt range with sub SCA seas. Thursday and beyond, a better chance for some advected 6+ ft seas as weak low pres develops well offshore, though winds will remain below 20 kt. Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds turning nwrly behind the fropa but should cont remaining below SCA thresholds. High 6+ ft seas may linger into the weekend however.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.