textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Brought min temps down for this morning given observations. Increased shower and thunderstorm chances for the weekend and mid- week next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through much of the work week.

2) Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend into early next week bringing beneficial rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3).

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Today we will reach low RH's 20-30% inland with deep mixing in the afternoon brings SW wind gusts of 20-30 mph. Thursday and Friday also have low RH's, but winds gusts are currently forecast to be below 20 mph.

In light of the expected dry and breezy conditions on Wednesday, and in collaboration with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for all of ENC for today.

A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A modest increase in moisture and instability along a stalled frontal boundary draped NW to SE from the Mid- Atlantic into eastern NC may be a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms on Friday closer to the NC/VA border. This is then expected to be followed by a more substantial plume of moisture within an increasingly active upper level pattern over the weekend and into next week. During this time, model guidance differs on the evolution of a SFC low that is forecast to track east across the Carolinas. There appears to be 2 camps in model guidance. The first is a weaker low that moves through Sunday/Monday, leaving behind a stalled frontal boundary that becomes a focus for additional precipitation Tuesday. The second possible solution is for a stronger surface low to move through Sunday/Monday. This would favor a stronger push south with the cold front, which then favors drier, but cooler, weather towards the middle of next week.

Regardless of the evolution of that low, increasing moisture, lift, and instability should favor one, or more, rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest chance focused Saturday into Sunday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday/Tuesday, but this will depend on the strength of the low as outlined above. Within this pattern, there may be enough shear and instability for at least a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, especially Saturday, and this is something we'll monitor in the coming days.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, should the weaker low solution materialize over the weekend, a deep negatively tilted trough as shown by the 00Z GFS could develop over the midwest and mid- atlantic mid- wee as a "worst case scenario". This could be paired with veering of low level winds, modest instability, and deep layer shear in the Carolinas and deep south. Mid-week next week will also be worth monitoring for any severe probabilities if other model suites come to the same consensus. At this point though, there is too much up in the air.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Fog potential remains very low overnight with cross-over temps well below low temperatures, however skies will be clear with relatively light winds and cannot completely rule out shallow ground fog in areas that do decouple, but impacts would be minimal if it does develop. A mainly dry cold front will approach the area today and will see gusty SW winds with gusts around 20-25 kt develop late morning and afternoon. Skies will be clear most of the day but will see increasing mid level clouds late in the afternoon.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through Friday. A mainly dry cold front will push across rtes Wednesday night, though could see an isolated shower near the coast. A wetter pattern develops over the weekend that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions but guidance is not in best agreement in the details yet.

MARINE

South winds 10-15 knots will quickly rebuild to 15-30 kt and become SW'rly today into tonight in advance of a cold front approaching from the north. Thursday high builds to our south with a stalled boundary to our north, keeping west to southwest winds gusting up to 10-20 knots in place much of the day.

For the coastal and outer waters, seas of 3-5ft this morning will build to 4-7ft with the building winds later today. Seas are then expected to fall back to 2-4ft by early Thursday, becoming 2-3 ft late Thursday.

Scattered thunderstorms may accompany Wednesday's cold front in the evening, especially for the coastal waters between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook: An area of low pressure is forecast to move through the ENC waters this weekend with elevated winds and seas and the potential for thunderstorms. The greatest thunderstorm risk appears to be on Saturday. Winds and seas early next week could be higher than forecast if the above mentioned low ends up deepening offshore as some guidance suggests.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.