textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Fog has become more widespread across portions of the coastal plain this morning while the threat for freezing fog has diminished as temps have risen above freezing.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Locally dense fog will impact portions of the coastal plain this morning.

2) Warming trend this week with well above normal to near record high temperatures are expected Wednesday into this weekend.

AVIATION...Dense fog will be possible across the coastal plain tonight and into early Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Low stratus has advected inland across most of the FA this morning while locally dense fog has become a bit more widespread with visibilities around 1/4 to 1/2 mile across areas west of a line from Richlands to Greenville. Meanwhile, temps have risen a couple of degrees to around 33-37 degrees lessening the concern for freezing fog. Visibilities are expected to improve between 8 and 9 am this morning but fog and and low clouds will likely continue until late morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A welcome break from cold as temps climb to well above normal mid to late week with high pressure offshore bringing southerly winds across the region. Highs forecast to climb into 70s away from the coast Wednesday through Saturday, while cold waters will keep temps along the coast cooler, mainly in the 50s OBX and 60s southern coastal sections. Some inland locations may approach record temps, which are generally in the low 80s inland, but periods of clouds and chances for widely scattered showers as a few weak systems traverse the area late in the week may keep temps a few degrees below record levels.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Winds have decoupled for most of the coastal plain and patchy fog has already started to develop. To the east, a shield of IFR stratus along the coast is slowly creeping westward. Fog and low stratus are expected to overspread the coastal plain tonight with the fog potentially becoming dense as we get closer to 09Z. With inland temperatures right around freezing, there's also concern for freezing fog, so obs will be closely monitored for the potential need of a Freezing Fog Advisory. Fog will take its time to mix out tomorrow morning and could potentially last until around 14z. Thereafter, expect light southwest winds and FEW to SCT high clouds.

Outlook (Tuesday afternoon through Friday): Predominantly VFR flight conditions are expected through much of the work week, though patchy fog will be possible each night and early morning.

MARINE

Small Craft conditions continue for all coastal waters this morning with long period swell from the departing low continuing to bring seas around 6-10 ft across the waters. Wave guidance is a 2-3 feet underdone, especially north of Ocracoke Inlet, but do expect waves to slowly subside today and tonight as the low pulls farther away from the area with continued light winds across the waters.

Outlook: Gradients tighten Wednesday as a system passes to the north bringing the potential for SCA winds and seas across the coastal waters, especially south of Oregon Inlet. Conditions improve Thursday into Friday but another round of SCA possible late in the week as a low pressure system traverses the region.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ158.