textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Tropical Depression Chantal will continue to dissipate as it slowly lifts north of the area tonight and Monday. A series of mid level systems will push across the area bringing periods of unsettled weather through the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 330 PM Sun...

- The heavy rain and tornado threats diminish this afternoon and overnight. Tropical Depression Chantal is lifting north of Lumberton this afternoon and will continue to weaken as it slowly lifts north across central NC through the overnight hours. Have seen bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms producing torrential rainfall across the region this morning and early afternoon but the progressive nature of the storms have kept flooding concerns to a minimum. Have also been closely watching several rotating storms within the bands for the potential for tornadic development, but very few have shown tight enough rotation to warrant a tornado warning. Currently seeing the heaviest band weakening as it lifts into far northern sections of the FA with stronger storms trailing southward across the Pamlico Sound to the offshore waters south of Ocracoke.

As we move into tonight, guidance is generally keeping precip chances to a minimum across the western counties of the FA with coastal counties, especially the OBX, having the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight. With PW values continuing to be greater than 2", stronger storms will still have the potential to produce torrential rainfall bringing the threat of localized flooding, especially with training cells. The tornado threat will wane overnight but could see rotating cells offshore approaching the coastline what will have to be monitored.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/

As of 345 PM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon will bring a threat for heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially northern counties.

The remnants of Chantal will accelerate north of NC on Monday as it get absorbed into larger SW flow ahead of a mid-level shortwave moving into the Midwest states. Plenty of moisture and instability will continue to reside across the region for scattered thunderstorms to redevelop through the afternoon hours. Highest chances will be across northern sections closer to the shortwave. PW values in excess of 2" will persist across the region continuing to bring a threat for storms to produce locally heavy rainfall and WPC has the northern half of the FA in a marginal excessive rainfall risk. Temps will be warmer with highs around 90 inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 315 PM Sun...

Key Messages

- Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall possible this week

Weak ridging builds across the area Monday night and Tuesday but could see isolated to widely scattered showers bringing locally heavy rainfall Tuesday afternoon and evening. SPC has western portions of the FA in a marginal risk of severe storms mainly for damaging wind gusts with moderate instability, however bulk shear will be meager.

A series of shortwave trough will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring an unsettled weather across the region. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall. At this time, instability and shear parameters do not look overly impressive for severe storms to develop but could see a few storms producing strong wind gusts.

The warmest temps of the long term look to be Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low 90s inland from the coast and heat index values around 100-105, otherwise temps expected to be near or a couple of degrees below climo.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 4 PM Monday...TD Chantal will slowly lift northward across central NC tonight, then accelerate north of the area Monday. Heaviest showers associated with rain bands from Chantal are lifting north of the TAF sites this afternoon but will continue to see heavy precip along the coast for the next several hours. LCL's remain low and expect pred MVFR cigs through the evening, but could see periods of clouds scattering out. Guidance is suggesting low stratus developing tonight with IFR cigs developing late tonight across the coastal plain with MVFR cigs closer to the coast. Stratus will gradually lift through the morning with VFR expected to return late morning/early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon with periods of sub-VFR conditions possible. Winds will gust to around 20-25 kt through much of the period as well.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 4 PM Sun...A series of mid- level systems will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible most mornings.

MARINE

As of 4 PM Saturday... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 4 PM Sun...TD Chantal will lift north across central NC tonight, then accelerate north of the area on Monday. S to SE winds 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt will continue tonight, then veer to SW on Monday. Seas wil continue around 5-8 ft south of Hatteras and 4-6 ft north through this evening, then gradually subside to 3-5 ft on Monday. Continue with SCA for all but the Albemarle sound and the rivers but could see occasional gusts to around 25 kt here but not frequent enough to warrant an SCA at this time.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 4 PM Sun...High pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic next week with a series of systems pushing across the area. This will keep gradients somewhat pinched with SW winds around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4 ft currently forecast during the long term period. However, some guidance is suggesting low end SCA could occur at times during the middle of next week, especially in gusts.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ135-152-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150-154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for AMZ158.