textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered Min T's tonight due to very dry airmass in place and light to calm winds expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming and mostly dry conditions will continue through mid next week. There is a low end potential for record high temps this weekend into early next week.

2) The next frontal system approaches the area late next week, with increasing precip chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure in the process of sliding offshore to set up offshore over the weekend persisting into next week. Temps will crash after sunset with mostly clear skies and light winds, but once the high is completely offshore, light Serly breeze should prevent lows in the 40s, but still cool with low 50s for most. With that said, still room to come down for the forecast MinTs should areas stay decoupled longer considering the afternoon Tds of upper 30s/low 40s and only thin upper level clouds streaming overhead during the overnight not having much dampening effect on the radiational cooling possibility. Current forecast calls for low 50s inland, upper 50s to low 60s beaches. Once the high becomes established offshore SAT morning, S'rly flow sets up and allows for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA. As a result, a warming and drying trend is forecast into early next week. MaxTs SAT in the mid to upper 70s areas cooled by the afternoon seabreeze, low 80s inland, upper 80s to low 90s inland SUN, and 90s to start next work- week. While we will likely remain below record high temps this weekend and into early next week, we will be close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next frontal system approaches the area late next week. SChc of precip WED afternoon and evening with increasing moisture possibly being enough to lead to some seabreeze activity. Still quite a bit of model spread in regard to timing and moisture available for FROPA this far out, but this will bring the next best chances for precip. Front currently forecast to cross THU.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR SKC through the TAF pd. With dry airmass in place, the chc for br/fg is very low. On Saturday, southerly winds should get a bump up with the seabreeze as it develops and moves inland with gusts aoa 15 kt or so by afternoon.

Outlook (Sunday through Tuesday): Continued moisture return in persistent southerly flow may lead to TEMPO periods of low CIGs/stratus over the weekend late at night into the early morning hours. Otherwise, a daily seabreeze is expected with occasionally gusty winds. With dry high pres in place, no convection is expected with chances below 10%. The next chance of showers or a few storms is Thursday.

MARINE

NW winds will grad diminish through the day, as high pressure builds over the waters, mainly 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. Winds will grad back overnight becoming SSW 5-15 kt.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): High pressure sets up offshore, allowing for typical summertime pattern along with a mostly dry and warming forecast into the weekend. Mostly S-SW winds through the period with high pressure offshore. Light to moderate SSW winds in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes. Seas generally remaining 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.