textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure will lift NE away from the area with high pressure building into the area through tonight. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday ahead of a fast moving front that will push across the area Wednesday night. High pressure builds in Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night ahead of another low pressure system potentially impacting the area this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Key messages...

- Patchy black ice possible early this morning across the coastal plain.

- Cool and mainly dry today.

Low pressure continues to push away from the area early this morning and precip has ended for the most part, although KMHX radar continues to show a few light returns across ENC. Low stratus persists across ENC with temps around 30 across the western coastal plain to lower 40s across the OBX. CAA continues to bring breezy north winds and will see temps drop into the mid 20s across inland areas to 30s coast by daybreak. Below freezing temps will bring a concern for black ice across areas where moisture lingers on roadways through the morning commute. Areas most susceptible to black ice will be elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.

High pressure builds into the area today bringing decreasing winds and clearing skies through early afternoon. Generally dry conditions today although several HighRes models show weak low level convergence along and just off the OBX today with a few light showers persisting, mainly through the morning hours with convergence weakening this afternoon. A weak shortwave approaches this afternoon bringing increasing high clouds. Temps will be around 15 degrees below normal today with highs in the low to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/

As of 2 AM Tuesday...High clouds clear mid to late evening as a weak shortwave pushes east of the area. Sfc high pressure centered across the area this evening will push swd after midnight as another shortwave and attendant front/trough approaches the area. Light/calm winds with clear skies overnight will bring good radiational cooling conditions and expect lows in the mid 20s inland to 30s along the immediate coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Key messages...

- Gusty winds and warmer Wednesday ahead of a dry frontal boundary

- A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on Sunday

Wednesday and Wednesday night...A robust northern stream shortwave approaches the East Coast Wednesday with the attendant surface low pushing across the Great Lakes and trailing cold front pushing across the region Wednesday night. Will see increasing mid and high clouds but moisture is quite limited with this system and not expecting any precip. Tightening pressure gradients ahead of the front will bring SW winds with gusts to around 25-35 mph. SW winds will also bring a nice warm up with high expected in the mid to upper 50s. The front pushes through Wednesday night with winds becoming NW and lows expected in the mid 30s inland to around 40 coast.

Thursday through Friday...High pressure builds in from the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry conditions and mainly sunny skies, although dampening shortwave may bring increasing high clouds on Friday. Below normal temps continue with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and low Thursday night in the mid 20s inland to 30s coast.

Saturday through Monday...09/00z guidance has yet another robust northern stream shortwave approaching the area Saturday and pushing across the area Sunday with a sfc low refection lifting across VA and the attendant cold front pushing across ENC Sunday night. Moisture appears limited with this system with best forcing focused north of the area and don't expect much precip with this system at this time. Warmer temps Saturday and Sunday ahead of the front with highs in the 50s to around 60 and lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Arctic high pressure builds in from the north behind the front with much colder air building back into the area early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- VFR conditions return today and are expected to persist through the period

Low clouds have begun eroding from northeast to southwest across ENC as of early Tuesday morning, with improvements to VFR conditions noted at both PGV and EWN. Expect remaining TAF sites of ISO/OAJ to lift to VFR conditions within the next hour as clouds continue to erode amidst subsidence aloft and drier low-level air working its way into the region. Once skies clear this morning, expect light and variable winds through the day with only a modest increase in high clouds this afternoon/evening as a weak mid-level impulse swings through the mid-Atlantic. Moisture will remain too limited for any precipitation or low-level cloud cover though. Winds calm for the early part of the overnight hours before backing to southwesterly after midnight. A small camp of guidance shows a low-end chance of patchy fog Wednesday morning, but light winds and drier low-level conditions are expected to preclude any fog threat at this time.

Outlook: VFR conditions largely persist until this weekend.

MARINE

As of 3 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Winds and seas gradually diminish through tonight.

- Southwest winds increase Wednesday and Wednesday night with Small Craft Advisories expected most waters and Gales near the Gulf Stream.

Today and Tonight...Winds and seas gradually diminish across the waters through tonight as high pressure builds across the area. Gales near the Gulf Stream will end shortly. Winds expected to drop below SCA criteria by mid morning, however elevated seas will keep the SCA continuing through the evening for the coastal waters, and into Wednesday for the central waters.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...SW increase quickly on Wednesday ahead of a frontal system with SCA conditions developing across most of the waters and Gales possible near the Gulf Stream, especially in gusts. Have issued a Gale Watch for late Wednesday and Wednesday night for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. The front will push across the waters Wednesday night with winds becoming NW and gradually diminishing late.

Thursday through Saturday...High pressure builds across the waters Thursday and Friday, then slides off the coast Saturday. Conditions expected to drop below SCA criteria by Thursday afternoon with descent boating conditions continuing into Saturday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for AMZ152-154-156-158.