textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snow is out of the forecast late week.

SCA conditions likely with FROPA for select marine zones. First SCA issued for Pam Sound as an early heads up with SCAs ongoing for some coastal waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Brief warming trend ahead of cold front to pass WED and stalling S of the FA, bringing the next chance of rain.

2) After another reprieve of cool-ish high pressure behind the stalled front. The front lifts back Nward as a warm front ahead of a low pressure system slated to work from SW to NE across SECONUS leading to a wet weekend.

MARINE...SCA conditions continue for some coastal waters, with conditions improving tonight before the next set of possible SCA conditions late TUE into WED.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure slides Sward across the FA tonight leading to SWerly flow regime into midweek ahead of a cold front that will track across ENC WED. This will allow MaxTs to get back into the low 60s for SWern zones, low to mid 50s NE TUE underneath mostly sunny skies. Clouds, SWerly winds, and rain chances increase from SW to NE through the day WED. Only light accumulations expected with light stratiform rain due to less than impressive moisture recovery through the column ahead of FROPA, less than a tenth of an inch. The front is currently forecast to cross through the morning WED, with weak Nerly surge following latter half of WED. The front is expected to stall to the S with cool high pressure filling in over the FA, but not nearly as cold as the last few bouts of Arctic air we've had to deal with lately. Late week MaxTs in the Mid40 to low 50s with early morning MinTs in the upper 20s inland, mid to upper 30s coast. Forecast has trended dry through FRI with high pressure dominating, leading to little to no chance of precip and therefore, no snow chances as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak low will develop along the stalled boundary in the Southern Plains and track ENE to NEward late-week. Stacked trough cuts across SWern CONUS first half of the weekend, eventually nudging the meandering boundary that had been stalled to the S, Nward through the FA late Saturday. Precip chances increase from this point forward as the FA becomes warm sectored with the center of the low progressing SW to NE W of the FA toward the Mid-Atlantic coast SUN night.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with occasional few-sct mid and high clouds at times.

Outlook: Guidance suggesting pred VFR expected at the TAF sites through the rest of the week, however warm air advection ramps up Tuesday and could see shallow fog develop Tuesday night, although guidance keeps probs below 10% attm. What may be more likely is sea fog developing across cooler sounds and nearshore waters along the Crystal coast that could affect coastal terminals, i.e. MRH/MQI/FFA from Tuesday afternoon into mid day Wednesday. REFS is the only guidance showing a strong signal for sea fog and will continue to watch guidance for trends. A weak cold front moving through the region Wednesday could provide some brief periods of MVFR, though guidance is trending drier with this system. Any sea fog will likely dissipate once the front pushes through the area. Guidance is also trending drier for the Friday system.

MARINE

High pressure slides Sward through the overnight leading to light and var winds becoming SWerly and strengthening through the day TUE. 6ft seas linger over outer waters currently, keeping SCAs in place for coastal waters N of Ocracoke Inlet into tonight/early TUE. Of note is a chance for the development of sea fog in the early morning TUE into TUE evening as winds become SW and WAA streams over cold SSTs. Confidence is low with minimal guidance biting onto this so there is no mention of this in the grids, but the potential is worth noting here as conceptual models show at least a low probability of occurrence. SWerly winds increase second half of TUE ahead of a cold front that will cross area waters WED bringing SCA criteria SWerly winds and chances of light rain. Have issued SCA for PamSound overnight TUE as an early heads up for mariners as active SCAs preclude further issuance for coastal waters. Have some gusts approaching Gales over outer waters near GStream in the strengthening prefrontal SWerly flow.

Outlook: Winds turning to the NW/N through the end of the work week with marginal Small Craft conditions possible behind the front that will stall to the S. A low pressure system is poised to work from SW to NE across the southeast US the latter half of this weekend, veering 10-15kt NEerly winds SAT to SEerly 15-20kt early SUN. Winds and rain chances further increase through SUN night as low pressure center tracks from SW to NE toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154.