textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Seas subsiding quickly as winds ease. Marine headlines have been adjusted.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temps and dry weather forecast today and tonight.

2) Another cold front will cross the forecast area WED night, which will bring the next wave of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected with this system.

3) Warming and mostly dry into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...SFC High pressure briefly builds overhead early and slides off the NC/VA coast this evening. Mostly sunny skies save for upper level clouds over the coast and offshore following the the departing trough aloft. SFC winds gradually veer through the day as the high exits Eward and the afternoon seabreeze works inland. MaxTs in the low 70s, mid 60s OBX, which is 5-10deg below Normal. Skies clear further overnight and calming winds should allow decent radiational cooling, MinTs a degree or two either side of 50 mainland, ~60 OBX/immediate coast where the light onshore flow will persist through the overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stacked low cutting across the southern extent of the Great Lakes and high pressure migrating offshore brings warm and moist air across the Carolinas mid week ahead of the next front set to cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday. This system will have decent dynamics to work with but current timing is working against it with limited instability due to nocturnal FROPA. Will continue to monitor the potential for severe weather with this system, but unless everything slows down by 12hrs, a few rumbles of thunder and some relatively light showers will be all we'll get out of the front with some slightly below Normal temps THU and FRI.

KEY MESSAGE 3...High pressure transits ECONUS behind the mid- week front and sets up offshore through late week leading to a warming trend and dry weather into the weekend. MaxTs back to the mid 80s SAT, low 90s inland SUN, which will be the story into early next week. These temps will bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Fog this morning was largely confined to the inner coastal plain, but lows stratus managed to develop and persist for a large chunk of the flying area resulting in patchy areas of LIFR. This should only hang on for an hour or two longer before increasing winds and insolation kick in. More pleasant flying conditions expected today with northeasterly post-frontal flow becoming dominated in the afternoon by sound and sea breeze circulations. VFR conditions prevail with only some spotty cu fields expected in the afternoon.

Outlook: Confidence is high on sub-VFR conditions mid-week when the next system will move through the area with additional showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Winds continue to relax as SFC high approaches ENC, sliding off the NC/VA later this afternoon/early evening. Seas over coastal waters generally 4-7ft@7sec at time of writing. Easing Nerly winds gradually veer to become E as the high moves offshore to the N with seas continuing to subside. SCAs remain over coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet for 6ft seas through this morning. SCAs currently to expire early this afternoon, but with how quick the seas fell overnight, wouldn't be surprised if they could be canceled earlier.

Outlook (Tonight into late week): Winds remain S to SEerly through the overnight, generally 10-15kt outside, 5-10kt inside allowing seas to continue to fall to 3-4ft~8sec. The next front is set to cross regional waters early THU, bringing yet another round of showers, storms, and some strengthening to SW winds to our waters. Winds currently forecast to remain generally under SCA criteria for THU's front. However, as the front approaches, a deepening low pressure system works NEward to pass the area well offshore, outside of 100nm. This low will send some decent swell toward our coast which could build seas to 6ft+ locally when the Nerly windwaves from the front stack on top this swell out of the SE and E. High pressure sets up offshore after the midweek front/low, allowing for calming seas and relaxing winds with a mostly dry and warming forecast lasting into the weekend. SAT SW winds 10-20kt, SUN best boating day of the weekend with winds a little calmer.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-158. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ156.