textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures Tuesday through Friday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Yesterday's cold front is fully across eastern NC this morning with high pressure gradually building in behind it from the north. With cool northeast to easterly onshore flow behind the boundary, temps will run about 5 degrees lower today compared to yesterday but still somewhat above average for mid- April. The surface high will migrate and then anchor off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight into tomorrow. When coupled with a persistent mid-level ridge and persistent southwesterly flow, stage will be set for a considerable warm-up through the week as temps climb into the 90s inland. The current forecast remains at the 25th percentile of NBM probabilistic guidance, but the spread to the 75-90th percentile has narrowed considerably to just a few degrees. Still, there remains some wiggle room for forecast temps to trend a degree or two higher over the coming days. Records will likely be challenged for much of the week - see the CLIMATE section for statistics.

There remains some spread on whether a backdoor front on Friday will make it across the area, but given the strength of the ridge pattern recognition points to this boundary stalling before reaching ENC. 00z guidance suite has trended closer to a solution stalling the front across southern Virginia, and forecast highs have trended higher once again into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through this week. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Cold front has pushed through the area last evening and all guidance continues to show winds staying up enough to keep the low levels mixed. With that said, a number of sites are either currently or have decoupled within the last few hours, and places that do have some wind are 4kt or less. The This opens up the door for fog development which has already been seen up in mainland Dare co. Very limited number of model solutions that are capturing this well, as most keep winds up, and the ones that are showing this transient fog show VIS less than 1mi as the pocket of moisture and lower winds works from NE to SW across ENC. I have used this guidance as a footprint but have kept the VIS higher. Went with prevailing minor fog mention for the early morning hours across all TAF sites save for ISO. Coastal sites, where Tds are higher, have gone with IFR TEMPO groups and an MVFR TEMPO group for PGV. Don't think fog will be an issue at ISO as sun will be rising with the area of greatest fog potential still lying E of this terminal. Sunday, expect SCT high clouds and E-SE winds to 5-10 kt with gusts to 15 kt.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern taking shape next week.

MARINE

Seas remain stubbornly elevated across the central waters this morning with northeast to easterly winds remaining at around 10-15 kt behind yesterday's backdoor cold front. Winds will remain at around 10 kt through the day but gradually veer southeasterly tonight and then southwesterly by tomorrow morning as high pressure shifts and then anchors offshore, in a typical warm season regime. SCA remains for central waters into the afternoon hours in persistent northeasterly swell.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week, although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154.