textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Well above normal conditions expected by the end of next week.

Gale Warnings issued for portions of the marine area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches (highest along the coast) tomorrow and tomorrow night. Mild temps and gusty winds along the coast will accompany this system.

2) Well above normal to near record high temperatures are expected mid to late next week.

MARINE...Strong Small Craft and Gale conditions will develop by late tomorrow afternoon as a deepening low pressure system moves through ENC tomorrow night. Gale Force winds continue behind the low through Monday morning across most of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An area of low pressure will track eastward tonight out of the Deep South, eventually moving over the Carolinas tomorrow, and off the Outer Banks tomorrow night. Showers will being to move into ENC tomorrow morning, with steadier rain developing in the afternoon. The heaviest rain will be tomorrow night as the low tracks over ENC and then offshore. Overall, 1-2 inches of rain is expected with warm temps and relatively high PWATs. Higher rainfall totals are possible along the coast and OBX, where convective elements will come into play as the low begins to deepen as it reaches the NC coast. Speaking of convection, most of the surface instability will remain offshore, but there remains a chance for some elevated thunderstorms along the coast, and especially Hatteras/Ocracoke Islands.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A ridge of high pressure will set up over the SW Atlantic for most of next week as the storm track shifts northward. After near normal conditions Monday, heights will steadily rise through the week with above normal conditions expected, and by late next week near record temperatures will be possible. Highs will be in the 60s Tuesday, low 70s Wednesday, and mid to upper 70s Thursday and Friday. Along the coast it will be a different story due to the frigid water temperatures, which will keep temperatures mostly in the 60s next week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday morning, with conditions rapidly deteriorating Sunday afternoon as a low pressure system approaches the Carolinas. Lower ceilings move in after 18Z Sunday, with a brief period of MVFR conditions that quickly lowers to IFR. There is an 80%+ chance of seeing IFR conditions for all terminals, with around a 40% chance of seeing LIFR ceiling Sunday late evening through Monday morning. Meanwhile, with the lower ceilings Sunday PM we will also see widespread rainfall capable of lowering visibilities to MVFR/IFR levels. As the low crosses through the eastern Carolinas Sunday evening/night, a strong low level jet will bring S to SW winds around 40 knots at 2 kft.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions are likely to linger through much of Monday as low pressure moves offshore. Monday night/Tuesday morning, high pressure overhead brings calm winds. If clouds break up in time, the calm winds, clearing skies, and recent rainfall will bring fog concerns to eastern NC early Tuesday morning.

MARINE

Good boating conditions will continue through tomorrow morning. Thereafter, conditions will deteriorate tomorrow with Gale conditions developing across the warmer Gulf Stream waters tomorrow evening, and expanding to most of the rest of coastal waters and Pamlico Sound overnight.

Low pressure is expected to move through the ENC marine waters which will make for a complicated forecast tomorrow through Monday morning. Southerly winds will strengthen through the day ahead of this system, reaching Gale Force along the coastal waters between Capes Lookout and Hatteras where warmer Gulf Stream waters are. Here winds will be S to SW 25-35 kts with gusts to 40 kts from early tomorrow evening until the low moves offshore after midnight. S/SW winds will reach Small Craft levels across the rest of coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. After the low passes off the NC coast, winds will sharply increase out of the N everywhere early Monday morning, and should reach Gale Force across the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout, as well as over the Pamlico Sound. Exactly how strong winds become will depend on the strength of the low, which will be deepening as it moves offshore. Right now the most likely wind strength is 25-35 kts with gusts to 40 kts. Strong Small Craft conditions will develop across the remaining marine areas through Monday afternoon.

Outlook: Small craft seas (> 6ft) will persist through at least Tuesday due to backswell from the low pressure system which will deepen rapidly offshore. Thereafter, increasing SW winds, and perhaps some lingering backswell will lead to Small Craft conditions continuing across most of the coastal waters into late next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150-152. Gale Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ154- 156. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ158.