textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Additional Small Craft Advisories issued for the inland rivers and gale watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above normal to near record high temperatures will be possible this afternoon

2) Strong cold front expected Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, best chances near Crystal Coast

4) Another frontal system moves through late-week.

Marine: SCA to low end Gale likely Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As expected temperatures have warmed steadily into the 80s inland and into the 70s along the immediate coast and OBX with an ongoing seabreeze making its way inland as of this update. With steady SW'rly flow persisting this afternoon and low level thicknesses ~1400m this supports highs in the mid to upper 80s across our inland counties with record high temps being threatened today. See CLIMATE section below for records. Once again, did use a blend of MOS guidance to keep temps along the NOBX higher than the NBM given SW flow regimes bring a warmer continental airmass over the NOBX and the NBM typically under does these regimes. This results in mid- upper 70s across the NOBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tweaks to the forecast for Monday but the overall flavor of the forecast remains. An upper level trough quickly tracks east-southeast across the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio River Valley/Northeast tonight into Monday. The base of this upper troughing will extend southwards into the Mid-Atlantic Mon and into Tue. Its associated mid level shortwave rounds the base of this trough at the same time. At the surface, this brings a backdoor cold front quickly through the area on Mon. While the strongest upper level forcing likely remains to the north, steep low level lapse rates should be sufficient enough to promote low level forcing. Still seeing moisture pooling out ahead of the front with PWATs jumping to 1.25-1.75 inches on Monday morning/afternoon especially across the Crystal Coast where the highest PWAT values will likely be found. With the late morning to afternoon timing of cold front, this will allow us to warm up, especially across areas south of Hwy 264 where cloud cover will be slightly delayed in getting to these areas thus allowing for slightly more warming as compared to our northern zones. Highs get into the low 80s south of Hwy 264 with 60s to upper 70s along our northern tier and OBX forecast. Either way, this allows for increasing instability ahead of the front, with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPEs forecast. Ahead of this front, 0-6km bulk shear is forecast to be 30-40kt, sufficient for structured tstorm development. As the front collides with the afternoon sea breeze, numerous showers and some tstorms are likely to form at the intersection point. Steep low level lapse rates can help bring some stronger winds down to the surface in the strongest of storms. Latest Hi-Res guidance does suggest that areas especially across our northern tier could remain dry all day with the Crystal Coast and areas along and south of Hwy 264 having the highest chance at seeing precip. With this in mind have structured the PoP forecast to reflect this with SChc to Chc PoPs along our norther tier and Chc to Likely PoPs further south.

A low confidence aspect of this event is the chance for brief, weak tornadoes or waterspouts. Current model hodographs aren't too supportive of anything spinning up, but as the front interacts with the sea breeze, it is possible for the front to slow down a tad at the surface due to the collision, but still progressing SE'ward above the sea breeze. This would cause some more curvature to the hodograph than models indicate, as SW winds at the surface are superimposed by N winds aloft. Localized enhancements of low level SRH could occur, should this setup happen. Again, this is a LOW confidence outcome, but was worth a mention as a "worst case" scenario. Behind the front, we will see a rapid increase of northerly winds with temps dropping through the afternoon and into evening. With this afternoon progression of the winds, the only concern fire wx wise is the abrupt shift in wind direction from north to south Mon afternoon.

Behind this front a second upper level reinforcing shortwave will dive SE'wards across the Southeastern CONUS bringing a shot at cooler temps Wed morning as high pressure builds overhead. While temps briefly get into the mid 30s across our NW'rn zones Wed morning, not expecting a frost threat but it is something to monitor. KEY MESSAGE 3: A positively tilted upper trough moves through the eastern seaboard late week as a shortwave/low crosses the Great Lakes, rounding the base of a more potent low over Hudson Bay. A weak cold front trails from this weaker of the two lows, progged to move through the Carolinas late week. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with front timing on the deterministic guidance but ensemble guidance does show this front moving through at some point this weekend. While this is a broader timeframe than usual of frontal timing this front could bring some much needed rain, though exact timing of this rainfall is still up in the air. As of right now, no major concerns are expected.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct cu and SW wind gusts around 20 kt expected through this afternoon. Strengthening winds aloft will lead to LLWS impacts tonight into Mon morning. A cold front will move through the terminals Monday, bringing a wind shift along with sct showers and iso tstms. This may bring a period of sub-VFR conditions between 18-00z. SW winds early Monday, becoming WNW with gusts 20-25 kt behind the front.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected Monday night through mid week. Another front will approach the area late week, which could bring periods of sub-VFR.

MARINE

Steady SW winds at 10-15 kts with a few gusts up towards 20 kts and 2-4 ft seas are currently noted across area waters this afternoon as ENC remains between high pressure ridging to the south and east and an approaching cold front well to the west. Expect SW winds to continue to increase tonight as the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the region as the cold front begins to approach, with small craft advisory conditions being met across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as winds increase to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts and seas build to 4-7 ft. Elsewhere winds increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up towards 25 kts across the Pamlico Sound. Given the weaker winds here, elected to not issue small crafts elsewhere. Aforementioned cold front then moves through the area on Monday quickly shifting SW'rly winds to a N-NE'rly direction behind the front. Winds increase even further to 20-30 kts across our waters Mon afternoon and evening with gusts up around 30-40kts. As a result have added the inland rivers to the small craft advsiory's along with the northern sounds, Pamlico Sound and Northern Coastal Waters. Once again could see a few infrequent gusts to 35 kts in the Pamlico Sound Mon night after the frontal passage but confidence is too low to upgrade from a small craft advisory to a gale warning. However, confidence is high we see gales along our coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet so have upgraded gale watches to Gale Warnings here. Seas build to 6-10 ft behind the front as well, highest over the Gulf Stream. These hazardous marine conditions then persist through Mon night before gradually easing on Tue.

Outlook: By Tuesday evening conditions ease further and more benign boating conditions are forecast by midweek as high pressure ridging builds in from the north and west. Late week frontal system may bring another round of elevated wind gusts and seas.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 03/22 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 75/2011 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 87/1936 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2011 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 95/1907 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 86/2011 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-158. Gale Warning from 5 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152- 154-156-158.