textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A frontal system will impact ENC Friday into Saturday

Marine: Next round of SCA expected Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next frontal system with strong SCA to Gale Force winds possible Friday night into Saturday behind the front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The next cold front to impact ENC is slated for late Friday into Saturday. Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to quickly rebound back above normal, especially tomorrow and Friday. Increased moisture advection along the southward-advancing frontal zone looks to support the next appreciable chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Instability continues to look meager, though, and the severe thunderstorm risk appears to be very low (less than 2%). Overall moisture does not look to be supportive of heavy rainfall, with average amounts a tenth of an inch or less save higher amounts in thunderstorms. Behind this front, another surge of northerly winds is expected Friday night and Saturday, along with cooler, below normal temperatures returning over the weekend. There is a potential for frost Saturday night with NBM probs currently around 50 percent across inland counties up to 70% across western Martin Co.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are present across the airspace early this morning with high pressure offshore and light southerly flow across ENC. There remains a possibility for patchy fog formation later this morning, but recent trends in both guidance and observations, cast some doubt on this development. Elevated winds and periods of mid/high cloudiness have kept temps mild so far tonight, with decreasing chances we meet the necessary crossover temps for radiational fog. Nevertheless, some isolated areas of patchy MVFR fog are possible, with best chances along the US 17 corridor where higher moisture was present yesterday. Soon after sunrise any fog that's formed will quickly burn off, and VFR conditions will continue through the day and into tonight with only some scattered clouds in the 4000-5000 ft range. Winds will continue to increase with gusts to 15-25 mph possible this afternoon and evening.

Outlook: The next cold front is forecast to reach ENC late Friday, pushing offshore by Saturday morning. Similar to this recent front, there will be a risk of SCT SHRA, isolated TSRA, and a notable northerly wind shift. Once again it looks like there will be a risk of 20-35kt wind gusts behind the front. Sub VFR conditions may develop as well, especially where SHRA develop.

MARINE

High pressure has pushed off the Mid-Atlantic coast while a coastal trough resides along the coast. Currently seeing easterly winds around 15 kt or less with seas around 3-5 ft. Winds will continue to veer to southerly tonight as the high pushes farther offshore and the coastal trough dissipates with seas diminishing to 2-4 ft. S to SW winds will gradually increase Thursday afternoon as gradients tighten in advance of the frontal system. Pessimistic guidance is highlighting the nearshore and inside waters for fog development with the added low level moisture from the coastal trough pushing ashore while it dissipates. I have added 3-5mi VIS fog to the grids for THU morning, but confidence in sub 1mi VIS as advertised by select models is low.

Outlook: The next round of impactful winds and seas is expected to develop late Thursday night into Friday and persist through Saturday as the next cold front moves through. Once again, a period of northerly post-frontal gales will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning. Seas will likely remain elevated into at least Sunday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.