textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased fire danger statement remains in place across portions of the coastal plain until 1900edt tonight. Another IFD for tomorrow (WED) will be issued once the current statement expires.

Aviation Discussion has been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in place for parts of the interior ENC coastal plains today. See Fire Weather Forecast (FWF) for more details. Another IFD for tomorrow (WED) will be issued once the current statement expires.

2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through the first part of the weekend.

3) A cold front will push through the area early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...No change with regards to the forecast or the ongoing burn ban, as NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Despite moistening return flow which has brought MinRHs levels above usual IFD criteria, given the ongoing drought conditions, dry fuels, and strengthening afternoon winds, IFD continues for the same areas as yesterday (inland tier of counties, Duplin Co Nward through Martin Co.). After further collaborating with neighbors and the NCFS, another IFD will be issued for the same areas for tomorrow (WED) once the current statement expires.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and warming forecast through the work-week, with model consensus keeping the high anchored offshore, precluding any precip associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast. Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids, will be later in the week (THU-SAT). This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. Adding additional support for the drier scenario is climatological guidance (CFS), which shows a strong signal for below normal precipitation through the end of the week. Consequently, NBM continues to keep PoPs below mentionable all the way through FRI. Above normal temperatures will continue this week and into the weekend, with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will approach the area Sunday, likely moving through Sunday night and early Monday. Increasing shower chances Sunday and Monday, along with iso thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. Rain chances along the Sern coast may linger into mid-week with a low expected to develop and travel along the front, passing somewhere off the ENC coast. TUE12Z Deterministic guidance keeps the low far enough offshore to keep showers off the coast, but will allow NBM's SChc PoPs to remain in the grids for now. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions prevailing through the end of the TAF period. Biggest impact to aviation the next 24 hours will be gusty southwest winds this afternoon. Winds peak this afternoon, and remain gusty through an hour or two after sunset, especially inland. Winds pick up again out of the southwest mid Tuesday morning with gusts again near 20 kts.

Diurnal clouds around 5 to 10,000 feet now will clear out toward evening. They reform again mid Tuesday morning, with no aviation impact.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Mainly VFR, best best chance for sub VFR late Sunday in rain.

MARINE

Rinse and repeat. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the work- week, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place through the period. Expect 15-25kt SWerly winds and 4-5 ft seas during the afternoon and evenings, winds calming some to 10-15kt, allowing seas to lay down overnight and through the early morning until the thermal gradient strengthens again in the afternoon. Gulf Stream waters, far Eern portions of Pamlico Sound, and Croatan and Roanoke Sounds most likely to see gusts up to 25kt, but not strong enough to warrant the issuance of a <6hr long SCA every afternoon. This cycle repeats into THU morning.

Outlook (Late Weekend into Early next week): Winds become more Serly THU and FRI and relax some, generally 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt during peak heating. FROPA is expected late SUN into MON and represents the next best chance of SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. Front will be accompanied with showers and tstorms what PoPs remaining in- place potential into middle of next week with an area of low pressure developing off the FL coast and traveling along the boundary well out to sea.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.