textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased winds for late Saturday, especially over the sounds and coastal waters.

Potential localized severe threat for far southern zones Saturday afternoon.

Lowered temperatures slightly for Saturday night and Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier and cooler Friday with a chance of showers and storms on Saturday.

2) A reinforcing cold front moves through Saturday night, bringing an even cooler and drier airmass into the region Sunday.

3) Next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Monday ahead of yet another cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and drier conditions in wake of a cold front today as northeast flow ensues. The front will then lift back north as a warm front later tonight as high pres shifts offshore, aided by seabreeze development late today. This will bring our next round of showers and thunderstorms with the best chances being narrowed down to a Kinston to New Bern to Ocracoke line and points south. Have decreased pops north of this area, while maintaining the 40-60% pops to the south.

A localized severe threat may develop around the Crystal Coast and Onslow, as seabreeze development coinciding with the arrival of the front during peak heating aid in a zone of moderately high instability/CAPE pooling just ahead of the backdoor front. The main threat would appear to be strong localized wind damage if any updrafts can become established.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A reinforcing cold front will move through by Saturday Night and usher in even drier and cooler air to finish out the weekend. Temps drop to 5-8 degrees below climo with this fropa. Lows will drop to the mid-50s (inland) to low-60s (beaches) Saturday night and Sunday night with highs in the 70s on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...High pressure will shift offshore on Monday with the next front forecast to cross the area late Monday/early Tuesday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday into Monday evening. A broader area of showers encompassing most of the FA with pops peaking at 50-70% later Monday afternoon into the evening. Conditions dry out later Monday night with high pres returning for Tue into midweek.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions persist with light and vbl winds, becoming south with advancement of sea breeze late in the day today. Just some ocnl cirrus or sct mid level diurnal cu expected today.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): There`s a chance for showers and some thunderstorms on Saturday (greatest chances for EWN and OAJ) as a backdoor cold front meets the seabreeze in the afternoon. Cold front sweeps through Sat night with dry air returing for Sunday. Next chance of showers on Monday ahead of yet another cold front.

MARINE

Winds will become NEerly across all waters through today in wake of cold front. Winds will veer to the S and SW by late today with next cold front approaching. Seas remain 2-4 ft through tonight. ft.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): 10-20 kt SW winds Saturday morning will veer to the NE and inc rapidly in the afternoon as a sharp backdoor cold fronts drops thorugh the waters. This NEerly surge will increase winds to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt late Sat afternoon and into early Sunday morning. Seas will respond by building to 5-9 ft. By Sunday afternoon, NE winds will have decreased to 10-20 kt but 6+ ft se as may linger through at least part of Monday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.