textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All marine headlines have been expired.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Brief reprieve from the dangerous heat through today, then hot and humid conditions return through the rest of the week

2) Unsettled pattern expected to return by this weekend, including the next risk of strong to severe thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak low pressure off the coast of NC will gradually shift away from the area today, but with a not-as-hot northeasterly flow lingering for one more day. We should see more sunshine by this afternoon which will help boost highs into the mid to upper 80s, which is near or slightly below normal for mid-July.

After today, southerly flow returns for the rest of the week. This will support warming temperatures, rising humidity, and an increasing heat risk. The heat risk is expected to peak Thursday- Sunday, although the return of a more convectively active pattern may hold the heat risk down some, especially from Sunday into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning guidance continue to show a strong signal for a more convectively active pattern returning by the weekend, and potentially continuing into next week. Additionally, machine learning and analog guidance suggest a pattern that is also favorable for strong to severe convection. This is supported by deterministic guidance, especially Saturday-Monday. PWATs are forecast to rise back above 2" as well, suggesting a pattern favorable for heavy rain and potentially some hydro concerns.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Sub-VFR CIGs have only recently developed across parts of ENC, and mainly south of most TAF sites. Guidance suggests these CIGs may expand north some, potentially clipping KEWN and KOAJ for a short time, along with a risk of SHRA and isolated TSRA. In general, the TSRA risk is expected to be more muted today (10-20% chance). Given the low probability, TSRA remain out of the TAF sites for today.

If sufficient clearing occurs late tonight, the setup appears favorable for BR/FG development, potentially with a risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): A drier and more muted TSRA pattern is expected again Wednesday and Thursday. Eventually, a more active TSRA pattern should develop by the end of the week and into the weekend.

MARINE

Low pressure south of ENC will gradually weaken and shift away from the area today. Until then, a modest east to northeast wind of 10- 15kt will continue today. Winds lay down tonight to around 5-10kt. Seas of 3-6ft this morning will gradually lay down to 2-4ft by tonight.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Southerly flow continues on into the upcoming weekend, steadily building each day. Winds are expected to peak over the weekend along with elevated seas. The next opportunity for marine headlines is expected with the building winds and seas this weekend. A more active thunderstorm pattern is expected over the weekend as well.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-203- 205. MARINE...None.