textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory issued for Thursday.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions will continue through Friday bringing high probabilities for major heat risk impacts over much of the area.

2) Lower rain chances Thursday, increasing for Friday into the Weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1..Highs in the low 90s inland and mid 80s across the OBX expected this afternoon. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s we are observing heat indices between 95-100F this afternoon. While this is below heat advisory criteria, it will still remain rather hot today.

Expecting hot and humid conditions to continue into the end of the workweek across ENC. Low level thicknesses will remain around 1430m and based off the offices climatological study, this is forecast to result in highs in the mid to upper 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast Thurs/Fri before a front impacts the region Fri evening into Sat resulting in cooler temperatures this weekend. Temps may briefly warm up once again early next week as well.

Heat indices are expected to peak around 105-110F Thurs and Fri with a Heat Advisory in effect Thursday for most of ENC. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed Friday as well unless if the forecast changes substantially. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low precip chances continue for today and Thursday, with one or two isolated showers possible along the sea breeze. While we still expect several shortwaves to ride along the northern periphery of an upper level ridge centered across the Gulf Coast this week, a mix of cloud cover today and some subsidence aloft today and into the early part of tomorrow, may put a damper on precip chances with any MCS's that ride along the surface ridging remaining to our west today. Because of this have only kept SChc PoPs along the sea breeze this afternoon as a result. Looks like shortwave tomorrow evening will approach the mid-atlantic, bringing a slight chance of weakening showers and tstorms into the region. Recent model trends the best energy remains to our north, and as a result we may avoid all of the activity tomorrow night. However, given low predictability of MCS's, elected to add Schc PoPs across the CWA late Thursday.

A stronger northern stream shortwave is progged to push across the Mid-Atlantic Friday with the attendant cold front pushing into the area Fri evening into Sat bringing the best forcing and chances showers and storms across the area. High pressure build into the area over the weekend bringing bringing a drier airmass and minimal chances for storms. However, a second frontal boundary looks to approach next week which could once again bring increased chances for showers and storms early next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

AMD NOT SKED has been removed for EWN with consistent observations the past 3-4 hours. If outage returns, NKT is the closest ASOS. EWN is able to be dialed into to receive latest observations.

A primarily VFR TAF through the period as a mix of light W'rly winds and high clouds persist this afternoon across ENC. Outside of the daily seabreeze, diurnal Cu develops around 4-5 kft this afternoon. Recent trends also suggest precip chances remain low for today and as a result have precluded any mention of precip in the TAFs today. Expect VFR ceilings/vis to continue through tonight as well.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are expected Thurs and into Fri, but there will be isolated to widely scattered convection possible each afternoon and evening that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. A cold front is progged to push through the area late Friday/Friday night that will bring the best chances for prolonged sub-VFR conditions. VFR conditions return Sun as high pressure briefly builds into the area. In addition, there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning with best chances in areas that saw significant rainfall the previous afternoon/evening.

MARINE

Benign boating conditions are expected through at least Fri morning across ENC. W-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, will increase each afternoon to around 10-20 kt and become S-SW today, Thurs, and again on Fri as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 1-3 ft into Fri. As we get into Fri afternoon and evening an approaching cold front will strengthen the gradient and while not explicitly stated, bring the potential for stronger and near SCA force wind gusts and 3-5 ft seas to our waters. Will have to monitor trends in case SCA's are needed in the coming days. A return to more benign boating conditions are then forecast Sat night into Sun as high pressure ridging builds into the area.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters through the end of the week continuing to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven over the Gulf Stream waters. A cold front is progged to push across the waters late Friday/Friday night bringing the best chance to see showers and thunderstorms.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ044- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...None.