textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Progression of rain in the near term has sped up leading to a longer dry period over the weekend lasting into early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Overcast skies with relatively light rain lingering along the coast into Saturday morning before a weak low pushing out to sea can pull moisture away from the area leading to clearing conditions with warming temps for remainder of weekend.

2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing brief rainfall.

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected to last into Saturday morning. IFR/LIFR conditions in BR/FG may redevelop Saturday night.

Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer coastal waters Cape to Cape tonight and Saturday. Next period of likely widespread SCA conditions SUN night into TUE.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front pushed S of the FA earlier this morning, shifting winds from SW to N behind it. Area of heaviest and most widespread rainfall is currently pushing off the coast with some lighter though more scattered precip will remain possible into SAT morning. SAT, the shortwave aloft begins to push offshore which will aid in the further organization of a weak low to develop and ride the Gulf Stream slowly NEward through the day SAT. This low will act to pull clouds and moisture offshore away from the the area through the day SAT and SAT night, which will help dry out the next frontal passage expected SUN night into MON. Winds briefly become SWerly ahead of the next front, allowing MaxTs SUN to get into the low 70s under sunny skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid- Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to be a bit lower for this system compared to today's with the low traveling along the boundary passing to the W and N of the FA. Limited coverage of SChc to Chc PoPs late MON and TUE with dry weather mid to late-week. Temps warm in generally Serly flow this period with MaxTs getting into the upper 70s and maybe even 80s FRI.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Satellite imagery shows a widespread area of low stratus blanketing the Carolinas at this time. Within this area, IFR/LIFR CIGs are common, along with MVFR/IFR VIS. A cool and moist northeasterly flow regime should allow these conditions to continue into Saturday morning. While drastic fluctuations are not expected, CIGs may waffle between 300-600ft at times, before eventually beginning to lift to MVFR and then VFR by Saturday afternoon. This looks like more of a stratus event as opposed to a FG event, and widespread LIFR/IFR VIS is not expected. VFR conditions Saturday afternoon look to transition to an increased risk of BR/FG development Saturday night thanks to recent rainfall and good radiational cooling conditions. The latest guidance shows a 30-50% chance of IFR, or lower, conditions redeveloping Saturday night.

Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move south through ENC on Sunday with a notable northerly wind shift. A few SHRA or TSRA may accompany this front, although not all guidance show this potential. Behind the front, a weak weather system is forecast to move through the area early next week, and this system should provide the next chance for sub-VFR conditions across ENC.

MARINE

NEerly winds 10-15G20kt behind front to the S of area waters. moving through the region. Rain lingering into early SAT until low pressure traveling along the boundary works NEward up the GStream through the day pulling moisture away from the area. Some sea fog possible, most notably over Nern waters overnight into SAT morning. NEerly winds will approach SCA criteria over FAR outer waters Cape to Cape overnight and through much of the day SAT. Would issue SCA if areal coverage coverage or duration were more sustained, but the 25kt gusts are forecast to bounce in and out of the 20nm zones through the near term. Nerly winds weaken to be AoB 10kt SUN before becoming SWerly ahead of the next front the cross area waters SUN night into MON morning.

Buoy data show seas generally 3-4ft@5-8sec with some increase overnight into SAT with the winds. Seas fall into SUN becoming 2-3ft before quickly building again.

Outlook: Next period of widespread SCA likely SUN night into early next week as strong NEerly surge fills in behind front. NEerly winds 15-25G30KT building seas 6-8ft, 8-9ft over Cape to Cape outer waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.