textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Fog threat continues early this morning. Small Craft Advisories have been expanded, now including all marine zones except the Pamlico/Pungo rivers. Gale chances have gone down with this update. Brought temperatures down 5-10F Monday given the expected cold air damming setup.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A quick moving cold front will bring a chance for brief scattered showers Sunday evening.

2) Rain chances return Monday evening through Tuesday with shortwaves moving through aloft.

3) Warming trend Tuesday through the end of the week with well-above normal high temperatures.

4) Patchy dense fog will be possible this morning.

Marine...Widespread SCA conditions expected Sunday night and Monday with the potential for infrequent gale-force gusts south of Cape Hatteras.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...There will be quite the temperature gradient today with inland areas reaching the low to mid 70s while the Outer Banks will max out in the 50s. A quick moving cold front will drop south across the area this evening. Strong forcing and higher PWATs (~1") along the front will support the potential for scattered showers, so slight chance to chance PoPs have been maintained with this forecast update. Lack of instability and weaker upper level support should keep us thunder free along this front. Behind the front, a tight pressure gradient with high building in will bring a surge of breezy conditions with wind gusts 20-25 mph inland tonight, increasing to 25-35 mph along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...CAA behind Sunday night's front paired with the cold air damming setup will let overcast skies linger and keep temperatures cooler on Monday with highs in the low to mid 40s for most, increasing to around 50 for coastal locales. A few shortwaves will move through late Monday and into Tuesday and bring the next chance for scattered light showers across the area. While the GFS is still holding onto snow chances at the NC/VA border, this is not expected to extend south into our county warning area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Upper ridging will move in on Tuesday and start a warming trend that will last through the rest of the week as a surface high sits offshore late week. On Tuesday, highs will range from the low/mid 60s inland to mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will range from the low 80s inland to low 60s at the beaches. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there's potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons Friday onwards.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Skies remain clear and winds have remained calm across ENC early this morning. In addition to that, ample low level moisture remains in place after the previous days rain which has resulted in patchy ground fog developing across portions of ENC. Expect fog to continue to expand and potentially become thick at times with visibilities of less than a mile possible with the greatest threat coming around sunrise. Biggest challenge will be how widespread this fog gets, but current thinking is that areas along and east of Hwy 17 have the greatest chance at seeing dense fog.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The aviation forecast overnight remains challenging, and features low confidence. Based on satellite and webcams, the FG being reported at times around ENC appears to be of the shallow variety. However, with good radiational cooling conditions, the potential of a more widespread, and impactful FG, still exists. However, it's unclear when, or if, this will develop. For now, this uncertainty is reflected via TEMPO groups. If observations, satellite, and webcams begin to show evidence of a more impactful FG risk, the TAFs will be updated as appropriate. Stay tuned for amendments through the night. Any BR/FG should mix out by 13 or 14z Sunday morning, with VFR conditions then expected to prevail into Sunday afternoon. Late in the afternoon and into the evening hours, a cold front will move south through ENC. This is expected to occur between 20z-03z. The front will be accompanied by a north to northeast wind shift, and increasingly gusty winds. There may be just enough lift, moisture, and instability for a few SHRA to develop along the front. Should this occur, a quick drop in VIS can be expected. A band of MVFR/VFR CIGs are expected to accompany the front as well.

Outlook: Behind Sunday's front, high pressure will build in early next week, setting up a cool air wedge across the Carolinas. This pattern favors widespread sub-VFR conditions across ENC. Within this pattern, probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of IFR conditions from Monday night into Tuesday. Periods of -RA look to accompany the low CIGs as well. Improving aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week.

MARINE

Light W/NW winds early this morning thanks to a high sitting over the southeast. Today will have pleasant boating conditions until the evening when a cold front will drop south across the area and bring a strong surge of northeasterly winds. After sunset, wind gusts 25-34 knots will develop across the northern waters, expand southward through the overnight hours through Monday. There is potential for infrequent gale force gusts south of Cape Hatteras behind the front, but confidence is increasing in primarily sub-34 knot gusts given a slightly weaker wind gust trend in models. EPS is still giving high gale force probs (70%) for this region so it can't be completely ruled out, but this seems to be the outlier when compared with other deterministic and ensemble based models. With a favorable N/NE wind direction and high HREF/REFS probs, have expanded the SCA to include most remain inland sounds/rivers with the exception of the Pamlico/Pungo River. RAP is suggesting the Pamlico/Pungo river area to see the tightest pressure gradient of the region behind the front, so despite the unfavorable NE wind direction infrequent gusts up to 25 knots are not out of the question for a brief period tonight. Seas are expected to build in response to the strong NE winds, increasing to 5-8 ft Monday night and 6-9 ft on Monday (highest near the Gulf Stream waters). Winds will be on their way down Monday night, but seas will be slow to subside and may not drop below 6 ft until Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Outlook: After headlines drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week should have pleasant boating conditions with winds and seas remaining below 25 knots as winds switch to become more southerly with high shifting offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.