textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs associated with tonight's frontal passage have been increased.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A quick moving cold front will bring a chance for brief scattered showers Sunday evening.

2) Rain chances return Monday evening through Tuesday with shortwaves moving through aloft and a developing coastal trough.

3) Warming trend Tuesday through the end of the week with well-above normal high temperatures.

Marine...Widespread SCA conditions expected tonight through Tuesday with the potential for infrequent Gale force gusts south of Cape Hatteras.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A quick moving cold front will drop south across the area this evening. Strong forcing and higher PWATs (~1") along the front will support the potential for scattered showers. A lack of instability and weaker upper level support should keep us thunder free, but behind the front, a surge of northeasterly winds will gust to 20-25 mph inland and 25-35 mph along the coast tonight. All rain should move offshore not long after midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...We'll enter into a cold air damming setup tomorrow due to the building surface high to our northeast. This will keep Monday cool and overcast with breezy northeast winds. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s, which is a difference of about 20-25 degrees for inland zones compared to today. In the late afternoon/early evening, rain chances will return driven by a few shortwaves moving through aloft and a developing coastal trough. Rain chances will continue through Tuesday as the wedge weakens and the coastal trough moves closer to shore.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Upper ridging will start to move in on Tuesday and begin a warming trend that will last through the rest of the week. On Tuesday, highs will range from the low/mid 60s inland to mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will range from the low 80s inland to the low/mid 60s at the beaches. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there's potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR flight cats presently under SKC with light and variable winds, but generally Werly in the background. A cold front will move south through ENC this afternoon and evening (20z-03z timeframe). There may be just enough lift and moisture to support a risk of SHRA with FROPA. The TSRA risk isn't zero, but continues to look low (<10% chance). A notable N to NE wind shift is expected along the front, with occasional gusts up to 20kt possible. Behind the front, cloud bases are expected to lower to MVFR but should remain SCT for a little longer than previous forecast. Eventually, CIGs will eventually become MVFR working from E to E from the OBX reaching coastal terminals after midnight and then spreading over inland terminals late morning MON.

Outlook: High pressure will build in behind the front, setting up a cool air wedge across the Carolinas. This pattern favors widespread sub-VFR conditions across ENC. Within this pattern, probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of IFR conditions from Monday night into Tuesday. Periods of -RA look to accompany the low CIGs as well. Improving aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week.

MARINE

Pleasant boating conditions will persist until this evening when a cold front will drop south across the area and bring a strong surge of northeasterly winds. After sunset, 25-30 kt gusts will start across the northern waters and expand to the SW overnight. Winds will continue to increase into Monday, peaking in the afternoon with a few Gale force gusts possible south of Cape Hatteras. SCAs are in effect for all waters except the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, but a few gusts to 25 kt remain possible tonight. Seas will build to 4-7 ft tonight and 5-9 ft tomorrow (highest near the Gulf Stream waters). Winds will start to relax Monday night but seas may remain above 6 ft until Tuesday night.

Outlook: After headlines drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week should have pleasant boating conditions. Winds will return to the SW by Wednesday morning and remain predominantly SW through the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158.