textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued trend of increasing winds Sunday afternoon into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe drought conditions remain across North Carolina and elevated fire concerns persist.

2) Showers and thunderstorms this weekend as front moves through. Rain chances decreasing for Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest update from the NC climate office keeps just about the entire area under severe drought (D2) conditions with a small sliver of Martin county under extreme drought (D3) conditions. The lack of rain continues to be rather noticeable across the Southeastern US, with rainfall amounts since March 23 running about 10-50% below normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. A continued warming and drying trend is forecast into the early part of this weekend as temps get into the 80s to low 90s through Sat. While Min RH's each day will remain low (25-35%), winds gusts are currently forecast to be below 20 mph outside of a brief period behind the daily seabreeze which may preclude additional Increased Fire Danger Statements for the remainder of the week.

Either way, a statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A somewhat complex setup in the extended range, as minor tweaks to the upper level pattern have downstream impacts to the surface pattern later this weekend and early next week. There have been some noticeable drying trends between the ensemble and AI guidance mid next week.

Will see a weak mid level shortwave transit SE'wards along the periphery of an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface this will leave a stalled frontal boundary over the area stretching from NW to SE across the Mid-Atlantic. With increasing moisture advecting into the Carolinas, could see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening along and just to the south of this front. It is worth noting that the front is expected to linger further north than initially forecast. As a result, areas with the best chance to see some precipitation tomorrow have also shifted north, mainly north of the CWA. Still, some isolated showers with minimal precip amount are possible in the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound. Areas to the south should remain dry and have little to no forcing for any accumulating rainfall. Further to the west, our next feature of note will be a surface low and its associated frontal boundaries which will track E'wards on Sat and into Sun as a mid level shortwave quickly transits across the Mid- Atlantic. With low level moisture continuing to increase, expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across ENC Sat late afternoon and into the overnight hours. Guidance continues to suggest any storms that do develop will likely remain sub-severe as deep layer shear generally remains 25 kts or less, instability is meager, and greatest forcing from the approaching front is located to the north. Rainfall totals still look to generally remain below 0.5 inches overall.

This will be the beginning of our more active pattern over the next several days with the upper low to the east pushing out into the Atlantic and a southern stream jet stream overspreading the Mid-Atlantic and bringing several mid level disturbances quickly east into our area. Latest guidance favors a more progressive pattern overall with quick hitting disturbances across ENC into late next week.

Guidance has come into some better agreement that as the front on Sunday pushes offshore a low will develop along this front and deepen as it slowly tracks east into the central Atlantic. While precip will finish by Sunday, a decent N'rly surge of winds will move over the area Sun afternoon into Monday as well.

Trends for Tuesday have become a lot drier, with precip chances and amounts dwindling. This is due to ridging in the wake of the low offshore lingering, substantially weakening the approaching front. There is a scenario at play now where we get no rainfall on Tuesday. Late week next week will also be worth monitoring for rainfall probabilities but given general uncertainty in the upper level pattern and surface features will continue to just monitor the chances.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Light to moderate WSW winds today. Once again, a southerly wind shift is expected this afternoon as the seabreeze advances inland. Additionally, isolated SHRA and TSRA may develop across the northern portions of the area this afternoon and evening.

Outlook: A wetter pattern develops over the weekend and early next week that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

The thermal trough is maximized and W/SW winds are gusting to 25-34 knots south of Cape Hatteras. With elevated winds and seas expected to linger a bit longer than initially forecast, the SCA south of Cape Hatteras has been extended until Friday afternoon. Elsewhere, 15 to 20 kt winds with occasional 25 kt gusts are being observed. Winds and seas will then ease once again br Fri afternoon down to 5-15 kts with seas lowering to 3-5 ft. There is a chance than another extension of the SCA's will be needed as it appears yet another thermal trough will set up on Fri night allowing for a several hour period of gusty SW winds to impact the coastal waters between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout but will continue to monitor the situation for now given it is borderline current forecast wind gusts are just under 25 knots south of Cape Hatteras.

Outlook: An area of low pressure and its associated fronts are forecast to move through the ENC waters this weekend with elevated winds and seas and the potential for thunderstorms. The greatest thunderstorm risk appears to be on Saturday. Northerly winds and seas have trended higher with this forecast update, with still some room to go higher if the above mentioned low ends up deepening offshore as some guidance suggests.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ154- 156-158.