textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Storm Warning has been replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory through 11 AM Monday.

High Wind Warning has been replaced with a Wind Advisory through 6 PM EST this evening for Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands.

Wind Advisory has expired for Washington, Tyrrell, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde, Beaufort, Pamlico, Southern Craven and Carteret Counties.

Coastal Flood Warning has been replace with a Coastal Flood Advisory through midnight tonight for the Northern Outer Banks, Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands.

Coastal Flood Warning has expired for East Carteret County.

Coastal Flood Advisory has expired for Pamlico and Southern Craven Counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) C-O-L-D. Minimum Temperature records will be threatened for the next few days.

2) Travel will remain treacherous.

3) A couple of weak weather systems will push across the region Tuesday night through Thursday bringing light to occasional moderate rain across the region, potentially changing over to snow Wednesday night and Thursday.

MARINE...Conditions improve but are still hazardous as a strong low pressure system departs to the NE off the NC coast. Gale conditions currently will slowly step down. Wave are at their peak heights of 10-20 feet for coastal waters and will improve as winds fall out.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Extremely cold air will stick around behind the winter storm with the potential to set additional new record low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows are currently forecast to be in the single digit range for a bulk of the mainland area, and 10-20F along the immediate coast and OBX Monday morning. The areas that don't see single digit MinTs will be due to wind, which will make the wind chill values approach the zero degree, and perhaps subzero range, in the early morning hours. High temperatures for most will be below freezing today and a little above freezing on Monday, but it's possible some inland areas to remain below freezing into Tuesday. Wind chills are currently in the teens across the area. Temps and wind chill will crater after sunset, expected to reach zero or below zero by sunrise, making for a gelid start to the workweek. Because of this, Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for the bulk of the FA, with Cold Weather Advisory in effect for areas not covered by the EC.W.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant impacts from the departing winter storm continue, with travel being extremely treacherous. Travel impacts will continue for many days, as melting snow Monday onwards will refreeze each night bringing a risk of black ice and slippery conditions on a lot of roads, bridges, and walkways.

Potential Life Threatening Situations: The combination of these hazards will make travel dangerous and could lead to life threatening situations if motorists become stranded due to the extreme cold temperatures coming overnight and in the early morning hours.

A coastal flood advisory is in effect from Ocracoke north through Hatteras to the NOBX for a threat for 1-2 ft inundation above ground level as ocean overwash remains possible with strong wave action still battering the coast. We have had reports of overwash freezing, further adding to hazardous travel.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A dampening northern stream shortwave and attendant cold front will approach the area Tuesday night and push across the area Wednesday bringing a cold rain across the region. Temps may drop to near freezing Tuesday evening but will warm into the mid 30s to low 40s after midnight as clouds increase with model soundings showing a warm nose centered around 925 mb, so p-type is expected to remain rain with this initial shortwave. A more pronounced shortwave will push across the region Wednesday night and Thursday continuing precip chances across the region, although moisture will be limited and expect mainly widely scattered showers. CAA will be continuing with nly winds behind the front and the p-type is expected to change over to snow, however, QPF amounts will be light and most guidance shows little (less than 1") to no additional accumulation.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Aviation conditions have improved considerably with VFR now for all TAF sites. VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as high pressure builds in from the west. May see a period of crosswind issues for EWN this afternoon before gusty winds subside for all of eastern NC by this evening/00Z.

Outlook: Conditions remaining VFR Monday into mid next week, though it will remain very cold. Another weak weather system will push across the area Wednesday into early Thursday that may produce sub- VFR conditions in predominantly light rain with some potential for light snow as well.

MARINE

A strong low pressure system will continue to produce dangerous marine conditions through tonight. Latest obs show NNW winds 20-40 kt gusting 40-60 kt, with seas 10-20 ft. Gale force wind gusts continue into this afternoon, but will be subsiding by this evening down to SCA levels.

Outlook: Conditions will slowly improve tonight with winds forecast to drop below SCA criteria by Monday afternoon. 6+ ft seas may linger into Tuesday morning. Another system is set to impact the area late week, deteriorating marine conditions yet again.

CLIMATE

Record Low temps for 02/02 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 19 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 20 1977 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12 1971 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 13 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 16 1980 (NCA ASOS)

Record Low temps for 02/03 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 9 1917 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 12 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ203-205. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ204-205. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ156. Gale Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ158.