textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued SCA for the central nearshore waters tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will cross the forecast area this morning, which will bring the next wave of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

2) Warming and mostly dry this weekend into early next week. There is a low end potential for record high temps this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest analysis shows low pressure offshore, with cold front pushing into the Piedmont. Low will continue to push NE today, while the cold front pushes eastward and through the area later this morning. Scattered showers and iso thunderstorms continue along the Gulf Stream early this morning. As front continues to progress eastward this morning iso/sct showers may develop inland along and ahead of it. Isolated to sct showers, potentially tstms, threat will continue this afternoon, mainly for areas along and east of Hwy 17. Though dry air aloft behind the front should keep precip chances minimal. QPF values themselves generally remain a tenth of an inch or less across just about all of ENC meaning appreciable rainfall amounts would be far an few in between. Areas of patchy dense fog will be possible early this morning. Temps a few degrees cooler today, with highs in the low to mid 70s for the beaches and low/upper 70s inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure transits across the Eastern Seaboard and sets up offshore over the weekend and early next week. This will allow for S'rly flow to set up and for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA. As a result, a warming and drying trend is forecast into early next week. MaxTs back to the mid 80s Sat, upper 80s to low 90s inland Sun into mid next week. While we will likely remain below record high temps this weekend and into early next week we will be close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pre-frontal trough is now pushing through all terminals, which has acted to quickly scour out much of the low stratus and fog that plagued coastal terminals overnight. Satellite shows a small patch hanging on around the KNCA/KOAJ area and portions of the Albemarle Peninsula, but this should fully lift to VFR shortly after 12z.

Gusty northwest winds around 15 kt or so expected during the day Thursday with VFR conditions expected to prevail from 12z onward. Mainly clear and calm night expected to follow, although we will continue to watch for some renewed, albeit more spotty, fog/stratus potential east of a OCW-EWN-NJM line after 06z Fri.

Outlook (Thursday night through Sunday): We quickly transition back to a summer- like regime by the end of the week, and moving into the weekend. This means a daily seabreeze, however Bermuda high pressure will be quite strong, and thus any chance of showers or storms is very low.

MARINE

Latest obs show light and variable winds, mostly 10 kt or less with seas 2-5 ft. Low pressure offshore will continue to push NE today, while cold front to the west pushes through the waters later this morning. Winds become N-NW 10-20 kt behind the front. Moderate N-NW winds 10-15 kt continue overnight. Issued SCA for the central nearshore waters with seas likely building to 4-6 ft early this evening and the first part of tonight.

Scattered showers and iso thunderstorms continue over the Gulf Stream early this morning. Convective chances will grad wane through the morning, becoming more isolated late morning and afternoon.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): High pressure sets up offshore, allowing for improving winds and seas, along with a mostly dry and warming forecast into the weekend. Winds grad becoming S-SW Fri night into Sat. Typical summertime pattern then returns with light to moderate SSW winds in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes. Seas generally remaining 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.