textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures will prevail through the next week with the potential for record breaking temperatures next Tuesday through Friday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A dry cold front is pushing south across the area this afternoon and high pressure will build in from the north tonight into Sunday. Temps will be around 5 degrees cooler Sunday with easterly flow across the region, but still above normal away from the coast. The high the migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday and persists through the week while upper ridging builds over the Southeast bringing a significant warm up and a prolonged period of near record breaking temperatures. Temperatures inland are forecast in the upper 80s Tuesday and peak in the lower 90s Wednesday extending into the weekend. Deterministic NBM looks reasonable when compared to low-level thickness analysis, but this also sits at or just below the 25th percentile of the probabilistic NBM. Thus, there is some room for forecast temps to trend higher over the coming days.

There remains some spread on whether a backdoor front on Friday will make it across the area, but given the strength of the ridge pattern recognition points to this boundary stalling before reaching ENC. Forecast highs for Friday and Saturday have trended a couple degrees higher as more guidance shifts towards this scenario. Record highs will be challenged most days next week - see the CLIMATE section for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through next week. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A dry backdoor cold front is moving across the area this afternoon, causing light winds to become variable. This evening, winds will become easterly with FEW to SCT mid-level clouds. Tomorrow, expect SCT high clouds and winds increasing to 5-10 kt with gusts to 15 kt.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern taking shape Sunday into early next week.

MARINE

A backdoor cold front is currently pushing southwest across the area and seeing N to NE winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt behind the front. Highest gust seen so far has been briefly to 24 kt at Roanoke Sound Channel buoy just behind the front, so thinking remains that an occasional gust to SCA possible but will be short lived and will continue to keep headlines out of soundside location. Seas continue around 4-7 feet along and north of Cape Hatteras. Conditions will be slow to improve especially with the uptick of winds associated with the frontal passage, and therefore left SCAs here up until late tonight north of Oregon Inlet and into Sun afternoon south to Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week, although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.