textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances are decreasing for wintry precipitation Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold temperatures tonight with a gradual warming trend Tuesday into Wednesday

2) A low pressure system Wednesday through Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with some potential for a wintry mix or light snow as it moves offshore Thursday night

MARINE: SCA conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday, with gale force winds possible Thursday night

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the region will allow for good radiational cooling conditions tonight with light/calm winds and clear skies. Temps will fall quickly after sunset this evening with lows expected in the mid to upper 20s inland to 30s along the coast. Some inland locations may even drop into the lower 20s. NBM temps are too warm in this scenario and followed closely to MOS guidance.

High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with southwest winds bringing a warming trend with temps climbing to the mid to upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, which is a few degrees above climatology.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A robust northern stream trough digs into the eastern CONUS Tuesday through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave moving across the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast coast Wednesday which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday evening. There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact track of the low offshore which will ultimately determine precip coverage and amounts across the region. The best precip chances will be along the coast where we continue likely PoPs, which tapers to slight chance well inland. Guidance is not that impressive with precip amounts which shows around a quarter on an inch along the coast to little accumulation inland. All liquid precip expected through Wednesday night.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early Thursday morning. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics but sufficient moisture remains that we could see a few showers across the region with frontal forcing, but rainfall amounts expected to be limited, only a few hundredths at best. Strong CAA develops behind the front Thursday morning but it appears this will be a typical cold air chasing the moisture with guidance keeping precip all liquid through Thursday afternoon.

The upper level trough axis pushes across the region Thursday evening bringing descent forcing but by this time moisture will be limited. However, coastal locations could see a brief period of rain or show. Guidance has been trending drier and NBM probs are less than 25% for any accumulation precipitation, for either rain or snow.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure builds over the area. Sct high clouds expected overnight. SW winds may decouple, but a lack of moisture will prevent any fog development. Tuesday will bring sunny skies with SW winds at 5-10 kt with gusts to 10-15 kt inland during the afternoon.

Outlook: Pred VFR flight cats expected through much of the period with high pressure in control. While there is still uncertainty, a low pressure system Wednesday and Thursday could bring precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.

MARINE

High pressure has settled across the waters bringing light winds less than 10 kt, while seas have subsided to 3-5 ft. Have allowed the remaining SCA for the waters from Duck to Ocracoke inland to expire this morning. Light winds continues overnight, then becomes southwesterly around 5-15 kt Tuesday with seas around 2 ft.

A low pressure system will pass off the coast Wednesday bringing increased winds and seas which may bring SCA conditions to the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, mainly where better mixing occurs near the warmer Gulf Stream waters. A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and could see NW winds bring strong SCA to Gale Force conditions across the waters. Conditions improve late in the week with high pressure briefly building into the area.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.