textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all of Eastern North Carolina for wind chills ranging from 5-10 degrees Tuesday morning. A Climate Section has been added for potentially record low temps Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front is slowly moving across ENC and supporting stratiform showers. A wintry mix remains possible across far western portions of Martin and Pitt counties through early this morning as temps hover around freezing.

2) A cold airmass will build in this week with below normal high and low temperatures forecast each day. Early morning wind chills will be very cold through the week with the coldest mornings being Tuesday and Saturday (5-10 degree wind chills).

3) A deep trough will dig cross the ECONUS this weekend with a low forming off the southeast coast, which could potentially bring wintry weather to ENC.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A slow moving cold front will move offshore by mid-morning. This front continues to support stratiform showers across the area, which will gradually diminish over the next few hours. A wintry mix remains possible across far western portions of Martin and Pitt counties through early this morning with temperatures hovering around freezing. To the east, all precip is liquid.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A dry Arctic front will move through this evening, bringing strong CAA to the area. High pressure will then build in through much of the week. Temperatures will be quite a bit below normal with highs in the 30-40 degree range and lows in the 15-30 degree range. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of ENC Monday night/Tuesday morning for 5-10 degree wind chills. Wind chills in the teens are forecast each night/morning with Friday night/Saturday morning being the next coldest period (5-10 degree wind chills). A moisture-starved reinforcing cold front will move through mid week. A few flurries will be possible across the NOBX Thursday morning, but accumulations are expected at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Models show an upper trough digging across the ECONUS this weekend with a low pressure system forming off the southeast coast. There's still great uncertainty in how this pattern will play out given model differences in the strength of the low and its proximity to the coast as it moves northeast, but there's potential for wintry weather to impact ENC.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Sub-VFR conditions across rtes this morning with light to moderate rain along and east of US 17. A cold front will push through the area this morning with precip moving offshore and conditions gradually improving late this morning and afternoon with pred VFR expected by mid to late afternoon. Gusty NW winds will develop behind the front with the inversion breaking allowing for gusts around 20-25 kt this afternoon and evening.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with arctic high pressure in control through much of the week.

MARINE

Marine conditions will deteriorate through late tonight as strong NW winds build in behind a departing cold front. 15-20 kt SW winds will become NWerly later this morning and increase to 25-30 kt with gusts to 30+ kt this evening through early Tuesday. A few Gale gusts will be possible for a couple of hours across the Gulf Stream waters tonight, but guidance trended more optimistic overnight. 6-8 ft seas this morning will briefly improve to 5-6 ft this afternoon while the winds veer but will build back up to 5-8 ft tonight with the surge of NW winds. SCAs are in effect for all waters with conditions expected to improve through Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook: Additional rounds of SCA conditions are possible Tuesday night, Thursday, and Friday night with the potential for Gales this weekend.

CLIMATE

Record Low temps for 01/27

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1940 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 19/1940 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 9/1940 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 18/1985 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 11/1940 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18/2003 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196- 198-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.