textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure currently centered overhead will slide offshore through the day. A quick moving front then pushes through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Behind this system, a warming trend will bring increasing temperatures through late week with the next series of fronts impacting the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Key Messages

- Cold this morning with a Freeze warning over Pamlico and Downeast Carteret Co.

- High pressure slides offshore in the afternoon bringing dry and warm conditions to ENC today.

As of 230 AM Tue...No significant changes to the forecast for this morning as high clouds are currently moving across areas south of Hwy 264. However, over the next hour or two these high clouds will quickly push offshore allowing for clear skies and light to calm winds to be in place into daybreak. As a result still expecting lows to dip into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and into the upper 30s to low 40s along the OBX this morning resulting in a cold start to the day.

As we get later into the day, weak ridging aloft quickly pushes offshore this afternoon. At the same time, a weak and dampening closed low and associated mid level shortwave located in the Midwest at the start of the period quickly push east into the Great Lakes region by this evening. At the surface, high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic this morning pushes offshore this afternoon with the approach of a surface low and its associated fronts. Warm front lifts north across GA and the Carolinas this afternoon resulting in onshore and then more Serly flow developing through the afternoon. This will allow highs today to be a little higher compared to Monday, getting into the low to mid 60s inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the OBX. With flow becoming onshore, moisture return begins in earnest today and mid and high clouds begin streaming in from the west later this afternoon and evening out ahead of the approaching low.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/

As of 230 AM Tue...

Key Messages

- Low and associated cold front sweep across the Mid-Atlantic bringing a chance at light showers on Wed

- Warm temps on Wed

Weak and dampening upper level trough will track from the Great Lakes E'wards across the Mid-Atlantic Tue night into Wed morning with this trough then pushing offshore Wed afternoon. Associated mid-level shortwave does the same, pushing offshore by Wed evening. At the surface, previously mentioned low tracks just to the north of the NC/VA border Tue night into Wed pushing offshore by midday Wed with its associated cold front sweeping across the Carolinas Wed afternoon. This low will be the lifting mechanism to promote scattered showers across the region mainly north of the Crystal Coast. Will note, while most of the CAM guidance does bring showers to much of ENC overnight into Wed morning, the global guidance has trended slightly drier and as a result have kept just SChc to Chc PoP's in the forecast to account for this. In addition to this, any precip that does fall will be light in nature (generally less than 0.10 in) which would preclude a wetting rainfall across the area. So don't expect much relief from the ongoing drought conditions across ENC as this low and front passes through the area. We dry out rather quickly by Wed afternoon as this lows associated cold front sweeps across ENC. S-SW'rly winds out ahead of the approaching cold front will bring warmer temps to ENC with lows Tue night getting down into the mid 40s to low 50s while highs on Wed get into the mid 60s to mid 70s across ENC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 230 AM Tue...

Key Messages:

- Extended period of above normal temperatures appears likely into this weekend

- Next set of frontal systems possible this weekend into early next week

Upper ridging builds over the Southeast from Wed evening on into the end of the week. A weak and dampening upper level trough looks to eject from a closed low over SoCal this weekend potentially bringing our next round of fronts and precip to ENC. Aforementioned upper level closed low makes its way into the Plains by early next week, though forecast uncertainty remains high with this feature given guidance remains fairly spread on the overall evolution of the closed low over the next several days.

While the aforementioned cold front will have pushed through ENC by Wed afternoon, it wont be associated with much cold air advection given how weak it will be. As a result, even with NE'rly flow expected, forecast lows only dip down into the upper 40s to low 50s Wed night. Temps will remain above avg through the rest of the work week and into the weekend as high pressure builds back into the Mid-Atlantic and S'rly flow resumes.

As mentioned before, incoming upper trough this weekend could bring a series of lows and their fronts to ENC which would bring a better chance at some precip, though given larger than avg uncertainty in the forecast, exact details still need to be hashed out. For now keeping precip chances at Chc to SChc starting late Fri night and persisting into Sun morning, though as timing gets nailed down for exact impacts to ENC expect the precip window to shrink some compared to whats currently forecast. High pressure is then forecast to build in behind whatever frontal system impacts ENC early next week. Temps continue to remain avg to above avg going into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 640 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- VFR conditions expected through the TAF period - LLWS concerns late tonight

High pressure centered across the area this morning will slide offshore this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period under mainly clear skies, aside from an area of high clouds moving across southern rtes early this morning. Light and variable winds through this morning will become southerly this afternoon generally around 5 kt or less.

A shortwave trough and attendant cold front approach the area tonight and push through Wednesday morning which will bring lowering cigs with isolated to widely scattered showers across rtes after midnight into Wednesday morning, better chances across northern rtes. Most guidance keeps cigs above 3k ft with prob of sub VFR below 35%. Sfc winds remain light southerly tonight but the system will bring a strengthening low-level jet which may bring LLWS concerns across the coastal plain after 07z, mainly affecting PGV and ISO.

Outlook: A weak system transits the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that could bring isolated showers across rtes with lower cigs, however guidance keeps most of the area VFR. High pressure builds in Wednesday night into Friday with pred VFR expected, however could see some patchy early morning fog.

MARINE

As of 240 AM Tue...

Key Messages

- Benign boating conditions generally forecast into the end of the workweek

- Elevated winds and seas potentially return this weekend.

Overall rather benign conditions are forecast over the next few days across our area waters. Have a low end <20% chance at SCA conditions behind a cold front Wed evening with a slightly better chance over the weekend as another set of fronts impacts our waters.

High pressure currently over the Mid-Atlantic is driving our weather today with 5-10 kt NE'rly winds and 1-3 ft seas noted this morning. Expect these light winds to gradually veer through the day to an E and the SE direction while changing little in speed. Winds then turn to a SW'rly direction and increase slightly to 5-15 kts with the approach of a low pressure system and its associated cold front tonight while seas remain at 1-3 ft. Increasing chances for showers will be noted overnight Tue into daybreak Wed as the low begins to make its closest point of approach though minimal impact is forecast from this shower activity.

Outlook: Dry cold front sags south through area waters late Wed shifting winds to a N-NE'rly direction. 5-15 kt winds may strengthen slightly, potentially bringing gusts up around 20-25 kts to our coastal waters, while seas build closer to 2-4 ft behind the front as a N'rly surge sweeps south. Will have to monitor the forecast trends with this frontal passage, because, while unlikely there is a non zero threat at some low end SCA conditions late Wed afternoon and evening. More benign boating conditions expected Thurs and Fri morning. Winds and seas then increase over the weekend with the approach of series of stronger fronts.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ094-196. MARINE...None.