textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Inc max T's rest of today and lowered TD's resulting in lowered RH's by 5-10% with dry wsw mixing down the drier air from the lingering dry atms in place.

Increased rain totals a bit Sunday, with most or all of ENC receiving between 0.5-1.00" of rain. Highest totals are forecast for the OBX zones.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A storm system will bring a cold rain to the area Sunday, and there remains a chance that rain mixes with or changes to snow at the end of precipitation for Coastal Plain zones. However, with temps above freezing no accumulations or impacts are expected.

2) Any remaining wet roads or bridges will freeze Sunday night into the Monday morning commute, as temperatures fall through the 20s late Sunday night.

3) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week with lows and wind chills in the teens Monday through Wednesday mornings. Wednesday morning coldest day of the week with lows in the teens all areas away from the beaches with high pressure overhead.

DISCUSSION

As of 2 PM Sat...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Deep upper trough in the Deep South all the way to the GOM will pivot eastward Sunday, with a weak surface low expected to form along a surface boundary off the SE coast moving northeastward late Sunday. Despite checking several boxes for wintry weather across the Carolinas, especially a lack of cold air in place, will keep precipitation from this system as a cold rain for most of the day Sunday. Rain may mix with or change to snow before ending acrs the Coastal Plain but surface temps will still be above freezing and no accumulations or impacts are expected.

The much needed rain will start late tonight towards dawn Sunday morning, then rapidly increase in coverage across ENC through the day with deep isentropic ascent in place. Rainfall amounts of 1/2"-1" are expected, which may only put a slight dent in the severe drought now in place, but any wetting rain is more than welcome at this point.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There remains some potential for the development of black ice overnight into the Mon AM commute time if heavier rainfall totals are seen and leave wet roads and bridges, as temps will crash hard into the 20s overnight. First ones to ice up will be bridges and overpasses.

Key Message 3...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to well below normal temps Monday through Wednesday. Low temps will reach the low 20s, and when factoring in wind chills it will feel like the teens each morning. We will be close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning (wind chills), and Wednesday morning (air temps). Wed morning is the coldest with high pressure directly overhead with lows in the teens areas away from the immediate coast.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to continue today with increasing mid and high clouds and SW winds gusting to 20-25 kt. A cold front will cross the area tonight, which will veer winds to the NW and bring widespread rain to ENC. CIGs will gradually drop overnight and should be near MVFR by sunrise. CIGs will continue to drop through the TAF period, reaching IFR by 13/14Z and LIFR by 16/17Z. Widespread MVFR VIS is expected by 13z with drops to IFR possible, especially within pockets of heavier rainfall. Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NW through the afternoon.

Outlook: Rain will continue into Sunday evening with the potential for some snowflakes to briefly mix in, especially for ISO/PGV. Flight conditions will be slow to improve but should return to VFR Sunday night. No snow accumulations are expected, but there's concern for black ice Sunday night/Monday morning. Dry high pressure returns Monday, bringing a return to VFR conditions across all of ENC through mid week.

MARINE

As of 2 PM Sat... Small craft conditions over the gulf waters from Oregon Inlet to C Lookout through early evening thanks to strong and gusty W to SW winds (25+ kts) ahead of a frontal system. Sub SCA winds below 20 kt expected elsewhere as WAA inc over stable marine layer.

Winds temporarily subside tonight as a cold front crosses the region, but NW winds pick up again Sunday afternoon through evening to 15-25 kts (30 kt Gulf waters), and a brief period of Small Craft conditions will be possible esp coastal waters s of Oregon Inlet.

Outlook: Arctic high pressure builds over the waters with lighter winds of 10-20 kt expected through Wednesday with seas 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ152- 154-156.