textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased fire danger concerns continue across portions of the coastal plain today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increased fire danger continues for parts of the interior ENC coastal plains today.

2) Guidance trending warmer and not as unsettled mid to late week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide. Despite a moistening return flow developing, it may take at least one more day to get the higher relative humidities more firmly entrenched across ENC. Probabilistic guidance suggests much of the coastal plain may see RH values drop below 40% during peak heating/mixing this afternoon. It's this area where an additional Increase Fire Danger Statement (IFD) continues. Beyond today, surface and mixed boundary layer dewpoints should steadily increase, with increasing RH as well. This should lower fire concerns beyond today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended decidedly drier mid to late week associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach eastern Carolina. In fact, some guidance now shows little to no precipitation over the next 7 days, which is quite the change from previous model guidance. Though isolated diurnal showers would be possible each day given the pattern. This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. Adding additional support for the drier scenario is climatological guidance (CFS), which shows a strong signal for below normal precipitation through the end of the week. Consequently, blended guidance now keeps the chance of measurable precipitation at, or below, 30% each day during this time. Above normal temperatures will continue this week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Pred VFR conditions are forecast to continue for the most part across ENC through Mon evening. High pressure is now well offshore allowing for light S-SE'rly flow across the region tonight. This southerly flow will help with low level moisture return across ENC, but don't expect a significant fog threat overnight which is supported by both the HREF/NBM showing a less than 20% chance for visibilities below 5 miles. While we are not expecting a fog threat through this morning across ENC, can't rule out isolated and patchy ground fog (MIFG) or BR at the typical trouble spots near rivers (EWN/PGV). Though, regardless of ground fog formation, this will not impact flight operations. Given the isolated and low probability nature of this threat, have not included any fog at TAF sites on this forecast cycle. As we get into Mon afternoon a diurnal Cu field sets up across ENC with ceilings generally around 4-5 kft so VFR conditions will continue. This diurnal Cu field will then dissipate near sunset with mo clear skies forecast Mon night. Light S'rly flow tonight will increase slightly to about 5-10 kts by Mon afternoon with wind gusts as high as 15-20 kts Mon afternoon with winds then becoming light Mon night. May have a slightly better chance at some patchy fog formation late Mon night as low level moisture return continues but with HREF probs only around 10-30% of seeing vis drop below 5 miles will not include any fog threat on this TAF issuance and will have to monitor forecast trends in the coming TAF cycles.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Not much change to the longer term aviation forecast as a stagnant weather pattern persists across the region. High pressure remains offshore keeping S'rly flow in place and any significant lift remains off to the NW and W of ENC into the weekend. Given the moist, S'rly flow off the Atlantic, plus increasing warmth and weak instability, it is expected that there will be a daily round of a SCT to BKN cumulus cloud layer, with reduced VIS in BR/MIFG during the overnight and early morning hours. Occasional sub-VFR conditions will be possible where BR/MIFG develops, but there doesn't appear to be any one day or night that stands out as having a better chance over another regarding widespread sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

Latest obs show SE-S winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. High pressure will continue to shift offshore today, with southerly winds becoming 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. Winds become more SW overnight with gusts closer to 20 kt across the outer Gulf Stream waters.

Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): A very stagnant weather pattern appears to be shaping up across the area this week. This pattern will be characterized by high pressure offshore, with fronts struggling to make it this far south. This should keep a modest south to southwest flow in place for much, if not all, of this coming week. A front may attempt to approach the region from the NW Tuesday-Thursday. While it now appears less likely that this front will get this far south, it may get close enough to support a tightening of the pressure gradient, and the potential for 15-25kt winds and 4-5 ft seas at times.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.