textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have cancelled the coastal flood advisory for Pamlico, Beaufort, and Craven Counties, as the gusty northeast winds causing the elevated water levels have diminished.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy NE winds and high astronomical tides will bring the potential for continued minor coastal flooding through at least mid week.

2) Mostly dry with climo temps through early this week, then warming to above climo mid to late week with continued dry conditions. Next chance of rain late weekend to early next week.

Marine: Elevated seas may continue to bring hazardous boating conditions through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will result in a period of continued long period swell across the OBX. The high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to additional minor coastal flooding impacts.

For Hatteras Island, seas offshore are in the 4-7 foot range early this morning and continuing to subside, but the long period swells will continue to cause issues for vulnerable areas. For ocean- side: high tide is around 0900 EDT today. Soundside high tides lag by up to 3 hours behind the oceanside tides. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe.

Coastal flooding will be likely well into this week despite the diminishing of winds, with "sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of ENC around times of high tide, then slowly improve as the King Tides ease later in the week and into the weekend. Coastal flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry high pres with near climo temps expected today and tonight, then warming to above normal mid week through the weekend. After a chilly start today with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s for most of us, temps rapidly warm today with building hts/thicknesses and highs in the mid 70s inland to upper 60s OBX. Normal highs are in the low 70s. Patchy fog, locally dense, has formed and will be with us through this morning's commute, with the highest concentration across coastal communties where dewpoints are highest.

Mid week into the weekend, hts/thicknesses build further, and temps climbing back to 5-10 degrees above climo with highs 75-80 inland to low 70s OBX. Low temps will warm above climo as well with readings in the mid 50s for most locales away from the immediate coast.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Patchy dense fog has formed at KEWN and KPGV under clear skies and calm winds. Best chances to sustain the dense fog is at EWN where probs are highest through sunrise and where the highest low- level moisture resides. Conditions should improve after sunrise, between 12-13Z. By afternoon, low level moisture in place will produce some sct strato cu but should remain VFR.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Another fog and low stratus threat early Wed morning, this time with best chances for coastal plain sites (KISO and KPGV). Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to continue through at least Sat with quasi- stationary high pres over the region. Coastal sections could see ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic.

MARINE

High pres ridging into the waters bringing light to calm winds, and elevated seas are only slowly subsiding due to the long period nature of the swells. SCA remains in effect south of Oregon Inlet. Seas subisde further to less than 6 ft by tonight, but will only be short lived, so have cont SCA headlines.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Aforementioned lull in 6+ ft seas is short lived, as by early Wed morning renewed nerly pres gradient redevelops with SCA seas and/or winds. The winds and seas finally diminish by early Thu north of Ocracoke, and by Thu evening for remaining southern coastal waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-196- 203>205. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.