textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure remains ridging in from the southwest through into tonight while a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. The cold front moves through the area tomorrow, with much colder conditions returning for early next week. A low pressure system will move across the East Coast mid to late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 1430 Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Showers along coast into this evening

- Warm overnight

- Showers increase from NW to SE as cold front approaches

Some record highs have already been broken today (notably KHSE), with some others still being threatened, but will be contingent on amount of sunshine able to peak through multiple cloud layers. Line of showers been streaming over the Crystal Coast through bulk of the day will persist for a few more hours but activity wanes while pushing offshore this evening. Winds remain breezy out of the SW keeping WAA in place until the cold front arrives. Precip activity picks back up ahead of the front just after midnight inland, through the early morning hours for Inner Banks, rainfall on the order of a tenth of an inch or two. Expecting the cold front to be bisecting the FA by sunrise with sharp veering of winds to NWerly directly behind the front. MinTs in the low 60s for places that remain ahead of the front, low 50s far inland zones where front passes through earlier.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/

As of 1500 Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Light rain first half of the day

- Early morning highs (60s) as temps fall through the day (50s) behind the front thanks to strong cold air advection

The initial cold front is expected to push offshore shortly after sunrise SUN with a second reinforcing front to cross through the afternoon. PoPs 40-75% as the front moves NW to SE across ENC. Up to a 1/4" of rain is possible, with the highest amounts likely north of US 64. Rain will exit the OBX quickly early Sunday afternoon as colder and drier air rushes in behind the front. Have a mention of SChc thunder in the grids across portions of the OBX given how anomalously warm low level flow is underneath a stout trough aloft pivoting over the coast. Precip ends for OBX by mid-afternoon with skies clearing W to E behind the front.

High temps will occur early Sunday morning (low to mid 60s) with temps dropping through the 50s the rest of the day as strong CAA develops.

NWerly winds peak late afternoon into the evening behind the reinforcing front. Gusts in the low 30kt range are expected, with strongest winds forecast over portions of the OBX. Notable, but not quite reaching headline criteria at this point.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1515 Saturday...

Key Messages

- Return to colder temperatures early next week with dry conditions

- Low pressure system mid to late next week will bring next chance of rain, with some potential (20-30%) for a wintry mix or light snow as it moves offshore

Sunday night...In the post-frontal air mass on Sunday night, temps will tank to the mid to upper 20s across the coastal plain and 30s along the beaches.

Early next week...Colder temperatures and dry weather is forecast for early next week as high pressure moves over the Southeast and a deep upper trough remains over the NE CONUS. Highs 45-50 for Mon, then into the 50s to low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. Cold lows in the 20s for interior zones Mon night, then moderating into the 30s through mid week.

Late next week...Building signal that a low pressure system will move across the East Coast Thursday or Friday, but guidance continues to struggle with the strength, location, and timing of the system. Periods of rain are possible, and there is potential (20-30%) for a changeover to a wintry mix or snow as the system pulls away from the coast. Still too early for any discussion on impacts or accumulation potential.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 115 PM Sat...

Key Messages

- Improving ceilings this afternoon

- Brief period of LLWS likely this evening

- Another round of low stratus possible late tonight into early Sunday morning

Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions currently across the terminals, with patchy stratus still lingering along the coastal plain. Cigs should lift to VFR in the next hour or two with increased mixing. VFR expected to then prevail through the first part of tonight, with ceilings likely lowering again late tonight and early Sunday morning ahead of approaching cold front. Scattered to numerous showers likely to accompany the front late tonight and Sunday morning, likely bringing MVFR, possibly brief IFR conditions. Precip will push east of the terminals with conditions grad improving mid morning Sunday. SW wind gusts 15-25 kt through tonight, becoming NW gusting 20-25 kt Sunday. This could lead to crosswind issues on EWN and ISO runways Sun.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure in control.

MARINE

As of 1515 Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Gale Force winds expected over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet tonight and tomorrow morning as SW winds increase ahead of a cold front

- A second round of Gale conditions will develop Sunday afternoon as NW winds surge behind a secondary cold front. These Gales will more widespread, covering all the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound at least

SWerly winds continue to increase through the afternoon to 15-25 kts, increasing further to 20-30 kts tonight with gusts 35-40 kts over the warmer coastal waters. The cold front will cross through ENC SUN morning with winds quickly becoming NW at 15-25 kts directly behind the front. A secondary front will move through in the afternoon, and behind this feature winds will increase to NW 25-35 kts with gusts 35-40kt, approaching 45kts over GStream into Monday morning.

Showers are expected and Tstorms can't be ruled out through the first half of SUN until drier air enters area waters behind the secondary front by late mid-late afternoon.

Seas 3-5 ft through this afternoon, and then will increase to 6-9 ft tonight. Seas remain elevated Sunday at 5-8 ft, and will begin to decrease Sunday night.

Outlook: Marine conditions improve early week with sub-SCA conditions expected until mid to late week when another low pressure system will bring increased winds and seas.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 01/10 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 78/1974 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 70/2020 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 79/1937 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 73/1983 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 75/1974 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 80/1974 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Sunday for AMZ135-150. Gale Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154-156. Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ158.