textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation Disco updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Summertime pattern continues over the next several days with daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. An extended period of hot temperatures are also expected this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat will be the name of the game over the next few days as the Bermuda high centered off the coast will slide S'wards towards the Gulf Coast States while a thermal trough remains over the Piedmont. This will keep low level flow generally SW to W over the next several days. As a result, some weak WAA will allow low level thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based off the offices climatological study this is forecast to result in highs in the low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast into the end of the week before a front impacts the region resulting in cooler temperatures late week into the weekend. The hottest days will be on Tue through Thurs. With dewpoints forecast to range from the lower 70s to upper 70s will result in heat indices around 95-104F this afternoon and again on Mon with heat indices closer to 100-110F on Tue through Thurs resulting in a chance for heat headlines later this week. Lows each night will be in the 70s which won't provide much relief from the heat either. Even if we don't reach official criteria in the coming days it will be hot and humid resulting in ENC reaching major heat risk thresholds on Monday with some of the area potentially seeing extreme heat risk levels Tue/Wed. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated. Otherwise, a typical summer time pattern will be in place through much the week. Near zonal flow aloft with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area will result climo precip chances for the next several days with best chances through peak heating and seabreeze related for the most part but will also depend on timing and exact location of individual shortwave troughs. The severe threat appears minimal for the next few days with limited shear, though somewhat better shear develops toward the middle of the week. We do look to have increased precipitation chances closer to Fri and into next weekend with the approach of an incoming cold front.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

AMD NOT SKED continues to be appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing FAA comms issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. NKT is the closest ASOS. EWN is able to be dialed into to receive METARs.

Primarily VFR conditions forecast through the period as the area is under the influence of high pressure centered offshore. Included one hr mention of VCSH for ISO with decaying storm passing S of the terminal. This cell will approach EWN but is expected to be completely done precipitating by time it arrives overhead. Guidance continues to keep reduced VIS probs due to fog development overnight very low as winds are not expected to decouple tonight. Introduced PROB30 groups for coastal terminals for MON afternoon due to seabreeze convection that could lead to reduced VIS. Maybe 20-25% PoP for inland terminals to see some showers/storms as well, but this will likely occur after the end of this TAF period for PGV; included VCSH mention for ISO ~21Z.

Outlook (Monday night through Friday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into mid week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible each day that could bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

No real changes in forecast thinking as the weather wont change much into next weekend. S-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent bring nocturnal driven over the Gulf Stream waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.