textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A strong low pressure system will exit off the Carolina coast today. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

As of 10 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Clearing skies overnight with cold temperatures

Low pressure rapidly moving well away from the area and precip has moved well offshore this afternoon but continue to have low stratus across much of ENC this evening. Stratus will gradually dissipate and move offshore overnight as drier air advects into the region. On track for lows in the lower 30s inland and low to mid 40s immediate coast. Have cancelled the High Surf Advisory with seas and breaking wave subiding.

Previous discussion...After a healthy dousing of rain (up to 2" reported so far for OBX and Crystal Coast), compact but quick moving area of low pressure is rapidly lifting towards the Delmarva Peninsula and taking precipitation with it as WAA weakens and gives way to strengthening CAA overnight. Precipitation axis is focused roughly along Highway 17 and will be fully off the coast of the Outer Banks by about 20z, although it will only add a tenth or two of additional precip. Low-level moisture will linger for a few hours longer so expecting a cloudy close to the evening. Once more robust CAA kicks in, skies will clear overnight as temps fall to around freezing Wed AM.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/

As of 210 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages..

- No hazardous weather expected

High pressure firmly in control tomorrow results in clear skies inland with subsiding northwesterly winds. Exception will be OBX where CAA strato-cu will straddle the coastline for most of the day. As is typical in northerly flow, high temps across Albemarle Sound and northern Outer banks likely overstated by a few degrees and knocked forecast temps here to the mid to upper 40s. South of Highway 70, temps will jump into the low 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

- Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region late in the week

High pressure will keep things cool and dry through Thursday with highs rebounding to the mid 50s.

An unsettled period will start Friday and linger through early Sunday as another low lifts along the southeast coast and a series of shortwaves move through aloft. Uncertainty still remains regarding how close to shore the low will track, but trends will continue to be monitored. At this time, highest PoPs are Friday night and into early Saturday morning.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 630 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions to continue for several more hours

- Gradually improving aviation conditions overnight

Precip has moved offshore late this afternoon but IFR/LIFR cigs will continue across rtes through much of the evening before improving after midnight, although some guidance showing another area of STCU moving south out of VA bringing an addition period of IFR/MVFR cigs around 5-8z. Mainly sunny skies expected Wednesday with the exception of the OBX where STCU will skirt the coast. High pressure will build in through the day with winds becoming light and variable.

Outlook: The next weather system is slated to move through ENC Friday and Saturday with another risk of sub VFR conditions.

MARINE

As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Gale warning continues into this afternoon; SCA conditions linger into Wednesday morning

After a brief but intense period of gales earlier today (Diamond Shoals appears to be our windiest spot with a gust up to 44 kt late morning), winds are beginning to ease and veer out of the west as low pressure lifts off to the north and east. Seas have responded in kind, currently 8-10 feet south of Cape Hatteras and 5-8 feet north.

Gale conditions are now likely confined to the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, and a downgrade to SCA is likely by late afternoon. Expecting a relatively brief surge of northwesterly winds later tonight as stronger CAA takes hold behind the departing low, and this will impact all waters except for the inland rivers. Added the Albemarle Sound to the SCA suite running through Wed morning.

All headlines forecast to end by Wed midday as broad surface high establishes itself over much of the eastern CONUS. Winds tomorrow fall to 5-10 kt out of the northwest with seas 3-5 feet.

Outlook: The current forecast should keep all waters headline free through the weekend. Very marginal SCA conditions are possible across area waters late Thursday into Friday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ135-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158.