textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation disco updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Return to more seasonable September temps for the beginning of the week with a warming trend developing the latter of the upcoming week ahead of the next front to impact the area FRI into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Behind the front, temperatures and humidity will finally get knocked down closer to normal for early September, with more comfortable conditions lasting into early next week. Still some residual moisture lingering today and will likely see sct showers into the early evening. Capped thunder chances at slight (20%) for the bulk of the area. Best chances of seeing more than a light rain shower are across the SWern corner of Duplin co with an ongoing MCS approaching the area, but think the worst of it will stay JUST S of the FA. Then Early week trend is drier as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s is fcst and is where our temps should be for the first half of September. Heat builds back from WED onward with strengthening Serly flow in the low levels and ridging aloft expanding over ECONUS ahead of the next upper trough to shunt a cold front toward ENC FRI and into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR flight cats are currently noted across just about all of ENC this evening with some reduced vis noted across southern Duplin and Onslow with ongoing showers tracking across our SW'rn zones as of this update. Once showers push offshore expect VFR conditions to return across all of ENC to start tonight. With steady NE flow dont expect a fog threat tonight though mid and low sea stratus is forecast to overspread portions of ENC mainly across the OBX where some MVFR ceilings could become noted. Further west and across the TAF sites expect VFR conditions to remain through tonight. Expect VFR conditions to then remain across all of ENC through the day Monday.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Monday night through Friday): High pressure will build in from the north through mid week. Pred VFR conditions expected, with potential for periods of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

Latest obs show N-NE winds 5-10kt over far inland waters, 10-15G20kt over larger sounds and coastal waters. Seas 2-4 ft with three main swell groups: 1ft out of SE @9sec, 1ft@5-6sec out of the S and 2-4ft wind waves out of the NE. NE-ENEerly winds will continue to strengthen tonight 15-25 kt with seas building to 4-6 ft. SCAs continue for the coastal waters beginning tonight. Have added Pamlico Sound to the SCA list through daylight hours MON with 25kt gust probable across the Eern half of the Sound. Moderate to gusty NE winds 15-25 kt will continue into Monday, with seas building to 4-8 ft, highest across the outer waters. SCA conditions expected.

Outlook (Tue through Thu): Winds and seas will begin to ease Tuesday and Wed as high pressure builds in. SW winds 5-15 kt return Wed night and Thu with seas 2-3 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.