textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have issued special weather statement to cover the several hours of sleet and freezing rain potential for far western parts of ENC. Added thunder to fcst as elevated instability aoa 500 J/KG noted.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A complex low pressure system will begin to track away from the area this evening and overnight with its associated cold front tracking across ENC tonight bringing additional rain chances along with a slight chance of thunderstorms along the coast.

2) Cold airmass builds in through much of next week with below normal temperatures forecast with highs in the 30-40 degree range and lows into the teens and 20s. Winds chill forecast to between 5-15 degrees Tuesday morning. Possibly even colder temperatures Thursday, Friday, and Saturday with wind chills approaching 0-10 degrees.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Only change to the forecast outside of tweaks to temperatures to capture the latest trends is to end the winter weather advisories across Eastern North Carolina as of this update. Expect temps to get above freezing across the region shortly and remain above freezing into Monday.

Speaking of temperatures, with the aforementioned wedge of shallow cold air in place, this has been one of the more difficult forecasts as inland areas along our far western coastal plain have not warmed up as much as expected with temps currently around or just below freezing here. Further east the temperature spread is from the mid 30s along the Crystal Coast to 50s and 60s along the OBX. For the remainder of the afternoon the general expectation is for temperatures to gradually warm with a non diurnal high closer to midnight ranging from the upper 30s inland to the 50s and 60s along the coast and OBX as a brief period of southerly flow gets established and warm air gradually infiltrates ENC. After a strong cold front moves through the area, expect temps to begin to decrease into the mid 30s to mid 40s by Mon morning.

Otherwise, low pressure pressure system that had brought this mornings mix of freezing rain and rain is currently noted near the Albemarle Sound and tracking NE'wards. There is some scattered light showers mainly east of Hwy 17 this afternoon associated with the low and this activity should exit ENC within the next few hours. Further west outside of some patchy drizzle we should gradually dry out until tonight. Another round of moderate rain expected tonight mainly after 7PM as the previously mentioned cold front pushes through the area bringing strong forcing. Will note there is a very low chance (15% or less) that temps dont get above freezing initially (7-8PM timeframe) across portions of northwest Martin County as rain enters into the area this evening. This could result in a brief period of non impactful freezing rain/rain before a quick transition to plain rain. Otherwise expect this area of rain to quickly sweep towards the coast tonight potentially exiting off the coast as early as daybreak. Sufficient instability and strong shear will be present along the coast that we could see isolated thunderstorms. Strong CAA will redevelop late tonight behind the front with gusty NW winds with temps falling through the day Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Arctic high pressure will build in behind the departing system through much of the week. Temperatures will be quite a bit below normal, with highs in the 30-45 degree range, and lows in the 15-25 degree range. Wind chill values will be at or below 15 degrees for Monday night and Tuesday morning which if this holds would result in a cold weather advisory for much of ENC Mon night into Tue morning. A robust upper trough and reinforcing cold front will move through mid week. Moisture is somewhat limited but could see snow showers producing minor accumulations. The air mass behind this front appears even colder, with wind chills approaching 0 for Friday and Saturday mornings.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly LIFR with some pockets of IFR cigs expected through the rest of tonight and into Mon AM. Have added tempo for PL at KISO and KPGV along with some wind gusts as band of precip arrives and moves through. Strong LLWS cont with the very strong frontal inversion in place and cont CAD setup, on the order of 40-50kt, out of the S-SW .

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with arctic high pressure in control through much of the week.

MARINE

Winds currently vary from NW to SW across our waters this afternoon generally at about 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. However, one exception to this is along the Gulf Stream waters where southwesterly gales are currently noted with SW'rly winds at 25-30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts. Seas across the region generally remain around 6-10 ft. Low pressure will continue to lift north along the trough late this afternoon pushing north of the Albemarle by this evening. Once the low lifts north of the area winds become mainly SW around 10-20 kt through much of the overnight. A strong cold front then pushes through late tonight shifting winds to the NW behind the front at around 15-25 kt with the strongest winds noted along the coastal waters. Seas will be in the range of 6-10 ft through tonight. Sufficient instability will be present tonight out ahead of the front and with strong shear also in place, we could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the coastal waters, tonight. Behind the strong cold front on Monday, NW winds will strengthen with widespread small craft advisories expected across our waters by Mon afternoon and evening. Current forecast suggests NW'rly winds increase to 20-30 kts with gusts up around 30-35 kts by Mon afternoon with these winds persisting into Mon night. Seas generally remain around 6-8 ft through Mon evening along our coastal waters.

Outlook: Behind a strong cold front Monday morning winds will strengthen to NW 20-30 kts through Tuesday morning. Slightly improving conditions expected Tuesday through Wednesday with winds W/NW at 15-25 kts. Another period of stronger winds with marginal Gale Conditions expected Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 5 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ158.