textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

High Surf Advisory continues from Duck to Cape Lookout for dangerous surf and potential for localized ocean overwash.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy NE winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore will continue to bring rough surf and localized ocean overwash concerns to portions of the Outer Banks into Thu.

2) Gradual warming trend expected in the wake of yesterday's front. Below normal temps will continue through FRI morning. Near normal temps FRI, but continuing to warm to well above normal this weekend and into next week.

3) Fire weather conditions will continue to be monitored closely due to no appreciable rainfall, a dry airmass, and drying of fuels as temps warm into next week.

Marine...Mix of gales and small craft advisory conditions over all area waters through tonight. Though winds begin to relax this evening, sea driven SCAs to follow the gales for coastal waters, likely lasting into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong NE winds continue across the area with strong high pressure to the north and low pressure offshore. Winds have led to large waves which will continue through tonight and early Thu. While winds will gradually ease overnight, wave periods will increase, leading to wave runup concerns and the potential for localized ocean overwash at particularly vulnerable locations along the OBX, mainly at times of high tide (around 1 AM tonight). High surf advisory continues from Duck to Cape Lookout.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool high pressure builds down NECONUS before sinking S of the FA FRI. This will keep a NEerly flow regime in place through the remainder of the work-week, continuing to advect a relatively cool maritime airmass over ENC through then. MinTs tonight in the upper 30s inland where skies are expected to remain clear and winds will be lighter, and around mid 40s Inner Banks where stratus advecting onshore and slightly stronger winds will dampen cooling. Some potential for frost development overnight and tomorrow morning inland, especially should winds decouple, though think winds should stay mixed enough to limit frost potential. Building low level thicknesses through the end of the work week allows warming temps despite the light NEerly flow regime, upper 50s and 60s THU and mid 60s to mid 70s FRI. Sun afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the Mid-Atlantic coast, veering local winds more Eerly SUN and then becoming Serly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs approaching 90 inland at the end of the forecast period (next WED).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Further offshore solutions of a weaker low traveling along yesterday's front and a lower likelihood of a coastal trough developing has continued to trend the late- week forecast drier. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying of fuels through the long term., This will lead to the potential for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are forecast.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR flight cats and gusty NE winds are ongoing across eastern NC. These gusty winds can produce crosswind concerns and EWN runway 14R/32L. Once the sun sets, winds will decrease to be below 15 knots for most away from the coast, still out of the NE. Tonight, NE flow will bring in some lower level moisture, and MVFR ceilings currently lingering over OBX will progress inland. There is uncertainty on how far inland it progresses, and what the coverage will be. there is a 30-50% chance for EWN and OAJ to see a period of MVFR ceilings tonight, decreasing to 10-30% for PGV and ISO as confidence decreases the further inland you go. Put a SCT025 deck in TAFs for tonight with this update for EWN and OAJ, becoming FEW025 for PGV and ISO. Any lingering low clouds will scour out in the morning, leading to another VFR afternoon tomorrow with NE winds at 5-10 knots (15-30 knots along the coast)

Outlook: Low VFR or MVFR CIGs are possible tonight into Thursday morning for terminals near the coast. After improvement during the day Thursday, a risk of sub-VFR conditions may once again develop Thursday night, this time due to BR/FG. European ensemble (ENS) has a 10-20% chance of seeing impactful fog Saturday morning with clear skies and light to calm winds forecast after dewpoints rise late Friday.

MARINE

Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt across the nearshore waters and 20-30 kt gusting 30-40 kt across the outer waters, with seas 7-12 ft. Strong high pressure to the north will continue to ridge into the Carolinas keeping a tight gradient across the area. Mix of small craft and gale force conditions continue across the waters. Winds will gradually ease tonight and into Thu, 15-25 kt. This will bring an end to the gales across the Pamlico Sound and central waters by this evening, though gales will likely persist across our Sern waters into the first part of tonight. SCAs across all other waters will also remain in place as well through this evening and tonight. Seas will remain elevated at 7-12 ft with periods increasing closer to 9-10 sec. SCA conditions will continue Thu with NE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-10 ft.

Outlook: 6+ ft seas will remain in place across our coastal waters through at least Saturday. Winds become generally 10-15kt, still out of the N-NE THU night. 10kt or less, briefly becoming SEerly across all waters FRI as high pressure sinks south of regional waters. Another ridge shifts across NECONUS over the weekend once again leading NEerly winds SAT night and SUN, continuing to veer to become S and then SWerly early next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ196-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.