textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will shift offshore this morning, while a dry cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will move through the area later today, with high pressure building back in behind it. Another cold front will cross through the area late Tuesday. on Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds offshore Christmas day and will remain in place through late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Warmer today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s

High pressure will remain over the area or just offshore through the rest of the early morning hours with clear skies and light winds. Strong cooling has occured due to these conditions, and temps are in the low to mid 30s inland, and 40s along the coast. Expect lows to be very close to current readings as winds pick up towards daybreak.

A dry cold front will move through ENC later this morning with just some high clouds and wind shift to the NW expected. Increased thicknesses will result in highs reaching the upper 50s to low 60s across the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/

As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Colder tonight with lows in the mid to upper 20s inland

- Below normal conditions continue Monday with high pressure over the region

High pressure will continue to build into the southern Mid- Atlantic tonight with CAA continuing. This will advect in a dry and cold airmass overnight with temperatures falling through the 30s this evening, and into the 20s overnight. Even along the coast temps will fall to near freezing by daybreak.

Mostly sunny but below normal conditions continue Monday as high pressure slides to the coast. Temps will remain mostly in the upper 40s to low 50s across ENC with winds weakening through the day.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Mostly dry conditions expected this week into this weekend with only some minor chances for rain Tuesday and Friday

- Above normal conditions expected through this weekend, with highs in the 60s Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

High pressure pushes offshore Monday night with heights building the rest of the week as an upper level ridge moves over the region from the Deep South. We'll still be on the periphery of the ridge Tuesday which will allow a quick moving cold front to dip into the Carolinas briefly, bringing a 25-50% chance of light rain (though amounts are expected to be very light). Behind this front a stronger surface high will develop across the Gulf Coast Christmas Eve through Friday, which will push highs up well into the 60s, and possibly into the 70s on Friday. Late Friday or early Saturday a cold front will move into the region, and could bring some light rain, though again, precip amounts look to be minimal.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 12 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

- VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period

- Sub VFR VIS/CIG possible along/east of hwy 17 early this morning in shallow fog (20-40% chance)

High pressure slides offshore tonight with a light southerly flow developing, though most areas inland will decouple. Clear skies and light/calm winds will allow for good radiational cooling conditions which, along with a subtle increase in low- level moisture, may lead to shallow fog development early this morning. Guidance continues to show areas east of highway 17 having a better chances. Fog will likely have limited to no impacts at the terminals due to its shallow nature, although some stations may report IFR/LIFR conditions at times. Any shallow fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise. A dry cold front with ceilings 5-8 kft will push across rtes Sunday afternoon/evening with winds becoming NW around 5-10 kt after FROPA. After sunset, winds will lighten to around 5 kts and will be more northerly.

Monday...VFR cont with high pres in control and light winds.

Mon night through Thursday...The next slight opportunity for sub VFR conditions Tuesday as the next cold front moves through with better moisture and SW winds gusting to 15-20 kts. 20-40% chc of rain with this front, but rain should be lighter in nature. VFR conditions return Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE

As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Small craft conditions will develop across the coastal waters and most inland sounds/rivers this evening behind a cold front, and last into tomorrow afternoon

- Another period of Small Craft conditions appears likely Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front

Winds this morning are light and variable as high pressure sits along the Carolina coast. A dry cold front will move through the waters later this morning, with winds turning to the W/NW behind at 10-20 kts. Winds increase further early this evening to N 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts (possibly 35 kt briefly) through tomorrow morning. Winds then decrease quickly through the day, becoming NE 10-15 Monday afternoon.

Seas will be 2-4 ft through this afternoon, and then will build to 3-5 ft. Seas will increase to 6-9 ft late tonight through early Monday morning, and then subside to 4-6 ft by early afternoon.

Outlook: Marine conditions briefly improve Monday night before SW winds increase Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front. Winds will become SW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts by early Tuesday afternoon through at least the first half of Tuesday night, with seas building to 4-7 ft. Improving conditions expected Christmas Eve, with decent boating conditions persisting through Christmas Day.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EST Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EST Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ156-158.