textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased winds on Sunday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe drought conditions remain across North Carolina and elevated fire concerns persist.

2) A more active pattern will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend into early next week resulting in some beneficial rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest update from the NC climate office keeps just about the entire area under severe drought (D2) conditions with a small sliver of Martin county under extreme drought (D3) conditions. The lack of rain continues to be rather noticeable across the Southeastern US, with rainfall amounts since March 23 running about 10-50% below normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. A continued warming and drying trend is forecast into the early part of this weekend as temps get into the 80s to low 90s through Sat. While Min RH's each day will remain low (25-35%), winds gusts are currently forecast to be below 20 mph outside of a brief period behind the daily seabreeze which may preclude additional Increased Fire Danger Statements for the remainder of the week.

Either way, a statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A somewhat complex setup in the extended range, as minor tweaks to the upper level pattern have downstream impacts to the surface pattern later this weekend and early next week. There have been some noticeable trends between the ensemble and AI guidance, but lower than average confidence in the exact weather pattern next week persists.

Will see a weak mid level shortwave transit SE'wards along the periphery of an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface this will leave a stalled frontal boundary over the area stretching from NW to SE across the Mid-Atlantic and into northern NC on Fri. With increasing moisture advecting into the Carolinas, could see a few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening along and just to the south of this front. Areas with the best chance to see some precipitation tomorrow would be along our north and northeastern zones. Either way precip amounts should be light overall. Further to the west, our next feature of note will be a surface low and its associated frontal boundaries which will track E'wards on Sat and into Sun as a mid level shortwave quickly transits across the Mid-Atlantic. With low level moisture continuing to increase, expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across ENC Sat afternoon and into the overnight hours. Guidance continues to suggest any storms that do develop will likely remain sub-severe as deep layer shear generally remains 25 kts or less, instability is meager, and greatest forcing from the approaching front is located to the north.

This will be the beginning of our more active precip pattern over the next several days with the upper low to the east pushing out into the Atlantic and a southern stream jet stream overspreading the Mid-Atlantic and bringing several mid level disturbances quickly east into our area. Latest guidance favors a more progressive pattern overall with quick hitting disturbances across ENC into late next week.

Guidance has come into some better agreement that as the front on Sunday pushes offshore a low will develop along this front and deepen as it slowly tracks east into the central Atlantic. While precip will finish by Sunday, a decent N'rly surge of winds will move over the area Sun afternoon into Monday morning as well.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday/Tuesday, but this will depend on the evolution of the upper level pattern as we have a chance to see a few mid level shortwave push across the region, and if any additional frontal boundaries can push across area. I'll note given the ongoing drought while PoP's may be higher than what we have seen lately, QPF amounts still look to be meager with ensemble probabilities of of greater than 0.5 inches over a 24 hour period this weekend being closer to 10-30% so expectation is while we should get some rain, rainfall amounts generally remain below 0.5 inches overall.

Trends for Tuesday suggests a more neutrally tilted trough centered to the north which would then lead to a weaker frontal boundary pushing across ENC and more of a general thunder and shower risk with precip amounts potentially being light in nature once again. While on the lower end of threats given the latest trends there could be some low end severe potential on Tue depending on timing of the front and how strong the forcing is. Late week next week will also be worth monitoring for any severe probabilities but given general uncertainty in the upper level pattern and surface features will continue to just monitor this threat.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR flight cats expected through the TAF period with breezy Werly winds and FEW diurnal cu field ahead of the seabreeze currently approaching coastal TAF sites. Skies clear behind the seabreeze with winds remaining gusty but more Serly until tonight. Thin mid-upper level clouds stream overhead overnight with relaxing SFC winds. FRI, VFR continues with Werly winds and SCT clouds FL070-100 in the afternoon.

Outlook: A wetter pattern develops over the weekend and early next week that could bring periods of sub- VFR conditions.

MARINE

Widespread S to SW winds at 5-15 kts and 3-5 ft seas are currently noted across our waters this afternoon. This is forecast to change tonight as the thermal trough maximizes and allows SW'rly winds to increase especially along our coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras where 15-20 kt SW winds with gusts up to 25 kts and 4-6 ft seas will be noted. As a result the ongoing Small craft advisory will remain in place here until Friday morning. Elsewhere, 15 to 20 kt winds with occasional 25 kt gusts will be found, so while close not expecting to expand the SCA elsewhere. Winds and seas will then ease once again Fri morning down to 5-15 kts with seas lowering to 3-5 ft. THere is a chance than another extension of the SCA's will be needed as it appears yet another thermal trough will set up on Fri evening allowing for a several hour period of gusty SW winds to impact the coastal waters between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout but will continue to monitor the situation for now given it is borderline.

Outlook: An area of low pressure and its associated fronts are forecast to move through the ENC waters this weekend with elevated winds and seas and the potential for thunderstorms. The greatest thunderstorm risk appears to be on Saturday. Winds and seas early next week could be higher than forecast if the above mentioned low ends up deepening offshore as some guidance suggests.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ154-156-158.