textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 1900 EDT...Have lowered pops again for tonight through Sat, as ENC will be warm sectored and little in way of forcing for precip is evident. Latest guidance has trended even lower than advertised NBM pops, with most places remaining rain free for a bulk of the day Sat.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Stalled front to lead to unsettled weather into this weekend.

2) Typical summertime pattern develops by next week with a daily thunderstorm risk and warming temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...CAD has set up across the Carolinas today resulting in a rather difficult temperature forecast overall. Warmest temps have set up across our southern zones with temps in the mid 70s noted, while mid 60s low 70s are noted along our northern zones. In addition to this, the CAD setup has helped keep a stalled front centered along the Crystal Coast up to the OBX this afternoon with ongoing rain and weak thunderstorm activity noted along this boundary. Instability has failed to build across ENC today outside of the immediate coast as cloudcover from the ongoing CAD has limited breaks in the clouds. As a result no longer expecting strong thunderstorms today, though any ongoing activity could bring heavy rainfall and a few rumbles of thunder to the region this afternoon.

As we get into tonight, things have trended drier and wouldn't be surprised if much of the area remained precip free for a few hours after midnight. With CAD locked into place for now low stratus looks to be the primary weather across the area, though can't rule out some patchy fog where rain has fallen today across ENC.

As we get into Saturday, forecast calls for the aforementioned front to begin to lift N'wards as a warm front with a wave of low pressure developing to the west and lifting NE'wards. Once again, the challenge will be how long does CAD hang on tomorrow as this will have an impact on how warm we get and if we will see stronger thunderstorm activity develop Sat afternoon. For now have the inland areas reaching the low 80s with the NOBX only reaching the mid 70s on Sat for high temps. This may be too warm depending on how things pan out. We will once again see a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the morning along the lifting warm front, with a second round of showers and storms possible along the seabreeze Sat afternoon as well. Once again much like today instability will be somewhat limited with MLCAPE values around 500-1000J/kg noted. With a lack of wind shear across ENC, once again expecting disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity through the day with lightning, heavy rain, and a few stronger wind gusts (40-50 mph) being the main concern.

KEY MESSAGE 2... No significant changes to forecast thinking from Sunday onwards as once this weekend's front lifts north, ENC will get back into a typical late-spring/early summer pattern characterized by moderate instability and weak to moderate deep layer shear. Convective initiation should primarily be seabreeze- driven. Given the expected shear/instability combo, there should be a daily risk of marginally severe thunderstorms, especially from Monday onwards. This potential is also supported by both machine learning and analog guidance.

Near-climo temperatures are expected during this time, with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast. It should be noted that while the forecast will reflect an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day, an all-day washout is not expected. It will be more unsettled than what we have seen the past few weeks, though.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A mix of low stratus (IFR/LIFR) and patchy fog (MVFR) is in the fcst tonight into Sat AM especially across areas that saw rain today as winds remain light and low level moisture plentiful. Given the thick layer of clouds currently out across ENC, expect MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR levels between 02-04Z tonight. Clouds are slow to lift Sat morning but will lift once the stalled boundary along the Crystal Coast lifts north as a warm front later Sat morning into Sat afternoon. This is forecast to bring a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions to ENC by Sat afternoon. Litte in the way of precip expected later this evening and into the day Sat, and have left out any mention of shra from the fcst, as the chc is 30% or less. Chances for thunder are even lower.

Outlook (Sunday night through Wednesday): Chances for sub- VFR conditions and shra with ocnl thunder will persist each day into midweek next week as an active sea breeze will persist each day under a warm, moist airmass. Winds will be light, generally in the 5-15 kt range.

MARINE

Showers and thunderstorms continue across our coastal waters along a stalled boundary bringing a low end threat for locally enhanced winds and seas as well as a low end waterspout threat. The aforementioned front is currently bisecting the OBX resulting in 5-10 kt S-SW'rly winds to the south and east of this front with N'rly winds at 5-10 kts noted to the north of this front. These winds are forecast to change little through tonight and as a result the ongoing 3-5 ft seas across our coastal waters will persist through tonight as well. As we get into Saturday this stalled front will lift north as a warm front bringing a renewed threat for showers and thunderstorms to the area. In addition to this, winds across all our waters are forecast to veer and become S'rly at 5-15 kts with a few gusts up near 20 kts at times. Seas will remain at 3-5 ft into Sat evening.

Outlook: A more summer like pattern resumes across our waters as the area remains under the influence of the Bermuda high. This will bring 5-15 kt S'rly winds and 3-5 ft seas to our waters as well as a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms to the waters into mid-week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.