textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will build in today through mid-week. A low pressure system will then move through the Mid-Atlantic region mid-to-late week followed by the potential for another system late this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 130 AM Monday...Temperatures have fallen through the overnight hours amidst continuing cold air advection following yesterday's cold frontal passage. Temperatures will bottom out around sunrise in the upper-20s inland (30s beaches). Winds will continue to relax through the rest of the overnight, becoming light and variable today as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Temps will be below normal today, with highs 45-50 F.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/

As of 130 AM Monday...High pressure ridging in from the southwest will keep skies mostly clear tonight and allow winds to remain calm. The low-levels will be quite dry, which will preclude the risk of any fog development. Lows will again range from the upper-20s inland to near-40 along the OBX.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 200 AM Monday...

Key Messages

- Cooler temperatures and dry conditions linger through mid-week

- A low pressure system mid-to-late week will bring the next chance of rain, with some potential (10-30%) for a wintry mix or light snow as it moves offshore Thursday night

- Another system will impact the region late this coming weekend

Early this week...High pressure will prevail over the region, bringing cooler temperatures and drier conditions. High temps warm into the upper-50s Tuesday/Wednesday, with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

Mid week into next weekend...Guidance suggests that a weak wave of low pressure will travel up the East Coast Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing the next potential chances of rain to ENC. Guidance differs on the coverage of precipitation and its proximity to shore, but some guidance has trended a bit wetter on Wednesday. Thus, have PoPs ranging from slight chance inland to likely along the coast Wednesday into Wednesday night. A cold front is then likely to push through ENC before advancing offshore Thursday, bringing additional rain chances. In addition, a stronger low pressure system is forecast to form near the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday. There continues to be large differences in the location, timing, and strength of this low within available guidance, but potential (10-30%) remains for a change over to a wintry mix or light snow as the system pulls away from the coast Thursday night. It is still too early for any discussion on impacts or accumulation potential, especially given continuing large spread amongst available guidance. Another system may then impact the area late next weekend. Temps will remain slightly below climo.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 630 AM Monday...

Key Messages

- Light winds and clear skies through the period.

VFR flight cats expected through the TAF period. Winds have decreased to around 5 knots inland, 10G15-20kt along OBX . SKC in place through tonight with light NWerly winds becoming SWerly by sunset. Despite the light winds tonight, airmass should be too dry for any fog development.

Outlook: Pred VFR flight cats expected through much of the longterm with high pressure in control. While there is still a lot of uncertainty, a low pressure system Wednesday and Thursday could bring precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.

MARINE

As of 630 AM Monday... Will allow small craft advisories for coastal waters from Ocracoke Inlet to Surf City to drop at 7AM. Remaining coastal waters have small craft advisories in effect until 11AM as waves are still greater than 6 ft.

Previous Discussion...As of 200 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- SCA conditions linger into late this morning across most area waters. Conditions improve through the day as high pressure builds into the region.

- SCA conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday, with gale force winds possible Thursday night

Winds have gradually trended downward through the first portion of the overnight hours, with the latest obs showing winds generally 15-25 kt with gusts 20-30 kt. All Gale Warnings have been converted to SCA's as gusts have fallen below Gale criteria. SCA conditions will linger through late this morning, with winds diminishing to 10 kt or less by the afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will remain light through Monday night, becoming southwesterly at 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt on Tuesday. Seas 4-7 ft will subside to 2-4 ft by this afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft then expected on Tuesday.

Outlook: The next round of SCA conditions is likely to develop Wednesday and Thursday as the next low pressure system passes through the area, with the potential for gale force winds Thursday night.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.