textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes since the previous update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Marginal risk of increased fire danger across the coastal plain today.

2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday.

3) A cold front will push through the area late this weekend into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Fire weather risk will be marginal for the next few days, and IFD issuance may still be needed in subsequent forecasts. Fire weather concerns could continue next week as drier airmass settles in. Concerns will likely hinge on rainfall amounts Sun and Sun night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mostly dry with above normal temps will continue through Sat, with high pressure anchored offshore. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast. Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with high temps mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches. MinTs generally around 60. A few records could be threatened the next few days - see the CLIMATE section for details.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will approach the area Sunday, moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday. Increasing shower chances Sunday and Sunday night, along with isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. Instability still looks meager at best, so svr risk still looks low at this time. QPF amounts are trending somewhat lower from the previous forecast but forcing still appears strong enough to warrant continued categorical PoPs for the period. NBM has caught on to the trend in deterministic guidance of the low pressure system expected to develop and travel along the front early next week, passing far enough offshore to keep the area mostly dry early next week. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early next week, then warming late week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As expected some patchy ground fog has developed along the Crystal Coast with no impact to operations at the affected TAF sites (EWN/OAJ). Any leftover ground fog is forecast to quickly dissipate by 13Z at the latest.

Otherwise expecting a primarily VFR TAF through the period. Much like the previous few days, a diurnal Cu field develops across ENC by mid morning. Ceilings likely remain somewhere between 3.5-4.5 kft and cloud deck is either SCT/BKN this afternoon before clouds dissipate this evening giving way to mo clear skies tonight. South winds may occasionally gust up to 15-20kt during the afternoon, but sustained, and frequent, gusts to 20kt are not expected. Winds quickly ease after sunset falling to 5-10 kts tonight. Once again may see a threat of yet another round of ground fog/seafog tonight into Sat as well given similar weather pattern. Given overall low end impact have not put it in the TAFs just yet but this may become necessary on incoming TAF cycles.

Outlook: We do remain under VFR conditions through Sat. Best chance for sub VFR conditions occurs Sun into Sun night with a frontal passage. This front will bring a threat for low clouds and reduced visibility as SHRA/TSRA impacts the area. Gusty winds out ahead of the front on Sun will also be possible with gusts up around 20-25 kt currently forecast. Winds do ease Sun night but will shift from a SW to NW direction behind the frontal passage. Lighter winds and VFR conditions then return early next week.

MARINE

Latest obs show S winds generally 5-15 kt with seas 2-5 ft. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the first half of the weekend, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place through the period. SSW winds 5-15 kt will continue into tonight, gusting up to 20kt during peak heating. Patchy sea fog will be possible across the northern waters overnight into later this morning. This fog could be dense at times and conditions will need to be monitored for possible Marine Dense Fog Advisory issuance.

Outlook (Saturday into Wednesday): SSW winds will increase through the day Sat into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. FROPA is expected late SUN into MON, which is the next best chance of SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. SCA conditions could begin as early as Saturday night. A minority of guidance does depict a minor risk of gales (10-20%), although this is confined to the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Front will be accompanied with showers and tstorms. N-NE winds will develop behind the front and continue through mid next week, which could bring more SCA conditions.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 4/3 (today)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 81/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1967 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.