textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A warm front lifts northward through the Carolinas tonight. Warm with brief showers ahead of a stout arctic cold front that will push through the area late Monday. A return to seasonably cool conditions through mid week before a dry cold front moves through. A low pressure area may bring the next appreciable rain to the region this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 3 PM Sun...Partly to mostly cloudy skies expected tonight as southerly flow bring increasing WAA ahead of an Arctic front approaching from the west. Low temps in the low to mid 50s will be reached during the evening then will see temps slowly increase overnight with WAA bringing temps around 60 for most areas by sunrise.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/

As of 3 PM Sun...Warm and breezy day in store with fropa late in the day. Ahead of it brief showers still expected, with highest concentration for the northern zones where 40-60% pops reside. Further south, forcing and moisture is less so pops remain 30-50%. Highs expected in the low 70s interior zones, but decent onshore flow over cold shelf/sound waters will keep the beaches cool in the low 60s for a better part of the day. A weak signal for sea fog due to the stable flow near the Crystal Coast and also OBX zones, though enough wind should prevent dense fog from developing.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1 AM Sunday...

Key Messages...

- A strong Arctic front passes through by Mon night with below normal temps into mid week.

- Dry with moderating temps for the latter half of the work week.

- Next appeciable chance for rain by the weekend with a low pressure system traversing the region. Monday night...Clearing skies and strong CAA develops behind the front with gusty NW winds. Temps will fall steadily overnight with low reaching the upper 20s inland to 30s coastal sections with wind chill temps in the low/mid 20s all areas by daybreak Tue.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Arctic high pressure ridges into the area mid week with cyclonic flow persisting across the eastern CONUS bringing mainly clear skies and cold temps. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the coldest period of the week with highs in the mid 40s and lows 20-25, even close to the coast as winds will be light to calm. The airmass begins to moderate Wednesday with highs low 50s.

Thursday through Friday...A series of weak shortwave will push through the area for the latter half of the work week bringing periods of mid and high clouds but deeper moisture will be lacking and expect dry condition to prevail with zonal flow. A dry front will push through the area Thursday night and stall south of the area Friday with brief high pressure building in.

Saturday through Sunday...The upper trough begins to lift out late in the week with a southern stream shortwave approaching the area over the weekend. Guidance indicating low pressure developing along the stalled front off or over the Southeast coast over the weekend and could bring accumulating rain to the region. For now timing and synoptic details yet to be determined so held pops in the 40-50% range. Temps near avg for early Jan with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1240 PM Sun...

Key Messages

- Predominantly VFR this afternoon with spotty MVFR inner coastal plain

- Sub-VFR conditions and LLWS likely to develop overnight ahead of approaching front

VFR conditions breaking out across most terminals this afternoon as lower cigs associated with in-situ CAD begin to erode. Guidance does hint at this stratus deck attempting to build back eastward later this afternoon, and PGV and ISO may briefly bounce back down to MVFR for a period later this evening. Otherwise, VFR prevails in southeast to south flow.

Winds begin to increase overnight as strong cold front approaches from the north and west. Despite sustained surface winds of around 10 kt, potent LLJ of up to 40 kt expected to develop bringing LLWS concerns for all terminals. VFR likely overnight as lower clouds scatter out in increasing winds, before cigs trend lower midday Monday while front makes its approach. Sct showers are likely ahead of this boundary after 18z.

Outlook: Periods of sub-VFR CIGs will be likely Monday afternoon with periods of light rain ahead of the approaching cold front. VFR conditions to return late Monday afternoon and Monday night. Breezy W-NW winds expected Tuesday under clearing skies. Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the rest of the week.

MARINE

As of 3 PM Sun...

Key Messages...

- SCA continues through early Mon with elevated seas cont.

- A strong Arctic front will push through the waters Mon with gales over the Gulf Stream and SCA for the rest of the waters/sounds/rivers.

Through Monday...Lingering highs seas in long period swell continues off the coast north of Ocracoke. High pres slides offshore tonight into Monday with south to southwesterly winds increasing ahead of an Arctic Front. Strong marine inversion present tomorrow with warm airmass atop cold waters in the 50s creating stable flow and lighter winds, but should see winds reach 25 kt at times. Much stronger winds just offshore over the Gulf Stream south of Oregon Inlet where sst's in the 60s to 70s, and 35-40kt wind gusts should be no problem at being attained. Have upgraded to gale warnings for these zones from 9a to 6p.

Monday Night through Tuesday...Strong arctic front moves through Mon evening with CAA ensuing and keeping winds high due to good mixing. Gales will be more marginal as 925mb winds are lower behind the front, but some brief gales are possible on the coastal waters in the evening. NBM/REFS probs are not terribly high and thus will end gales at 6pm and will have strong SCA conditions with wnw winds to 30 kt expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Conditions expected to drop below SCA criteria by late Tuesday with W-NW flow around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4 ft. Winds become swrly mid week but remain below SCA for most. Could see marginal SCA winds for the Gulf waters with swrly winds inc a bit late Wed/Wed night ahead of dry cold front set to move through Thu.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ131-135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158.