textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Weather Advisory remains in place and has been extended through 1 pm, for any lingering issues with temps hovering around freezing.

Gale Warnings expanded to most of the coastal waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning. Light wintry mix and/or freezing rain will lead to areas of hazardous road conditions. The threat may linger into early this afternoon as temperatures hover right around freezing.

2) Black ice and snow/ice refreeze remains a threat to travel, though lesser impacts are expected with extensive melting yesterday.

MARINE...Gale Warnings are up for most of the coastal waters for later today. Another period of stronger Gales expected Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As cold air continues to move in behind a cold front, temperatures have dipped below freezing across the northern tier of NC, with temps very close to the freezing mark for the rest of the forecast area. There have been some reports of a wintry mix, but expect the main threat to be freezing rain for the next few hours as light rain continues to fall across ENC. Ice accumulations will be light, generally less than a tenth of an inch, but this will likely be enough to bring some impacts to area roadways and especially bridges. Forecast guidance has trended colder this morning, and also shows a slower increase in temperatures later this morning. This means temperatures will hover around or just below freezing through most of this morning, as light showers of freezing rain and/or a wintry mix move across the area with low pressure passing by offshore a little closer. Due to this lingering threat, have extended the Winter Weather Advisory until 1 pm, when temperatures should safely rise above freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Though we've seen extensive melting of the snow pack yesterday from a combination of rain and warm temperatures, there remains a threat to black ice and snow/ice refreezing the next few days as temperatures drop well below freezing at night.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Widespread MVFR conditions noted across ENC early this morning. Wintry precip for inland terminals (PGV, ISO) likely occuring at this moment. Rain closer to the coast slowly transitioning to a wintry precip as temps fall to <= 32 over the next 1-2 hours. Icing amounts are expected to be at or less than 0.10" through the event. FZRA chances quickly end from NW to SE through the morning today. Ceilings continue to lift through today as high builds in from the north, with all sites becoming VFR by late afternoon into the evening. There is a scenario where a cold air damming like setup lingers over ENC through the day, keeping us at MVFR levels through the evening. This seems unlikely, with only the GLAMP suggesting it, as the vast majority of guidance has sped up the clearing to VFR.

Outlook: Predominantly Saturday morning a cold front moves through bringing gusty winds and potentially a drop to MVFR ceilings ahead of it. High pressure builds in later Saturday bringing back VFR conditions.

MARINE

Behind a cold front winds have increased to N 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts early this morning. Winds will continue to increase the rest of the morning to 20-30 kts with gusts 35-40 kts expected over most of the coastal waters. Gale Warnings have been extended to cover the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Conditions will begin to improve by early tomorrow morning, and winds will subside quickly to NW 10-20 kts after sunrise. Seas are mostly 3-5 ft early this morning but will increase later today to 6-10 ft, and remain at this level through most of the night. Waves subside to 4-6 ft by late tomorrow morning.

Outlook: After a brief window of improving conditions, strong winds will again develop over the coastal waters Friday night as a strong Arctic front moves through the region. Strong Gale conditions are expected, and will persist into Sunday morning.

CLIMATE

Record low temps for 2/8 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15/1947 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 11/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 14/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 15/1977 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 10/1977 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 15/1977 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Friday for AMZ131-137-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158.