textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Higher confidence in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and into early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dense fog threat will return along the coast this morning, and then likely return for the next few overnight periods through the weekend.

2) Well above normal to near record conditions expected through early next week with high pressure ridging offshore.

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected late this evening into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fog inland has quickly given way to a more summertime like pattern of an advancing sea breeze and developing cumulus fields, although sea fog remains stubbornly persistent especially along the immediate Crystal Coast and the Outer Banks. These visibilities may occasionally bleed onto the immediate coast, but will not penetrate far enough inland to necessitate Dense Fog advisories today.

Across the north, a weak backdoor cold front is attempting to push southwards towards the Albemarle Peninsula and northern Outer Banks with a healthy bank of low stratus and fog following behind it. Guidance generally agrees on this front getting hung up just north of the Albemarle Sound, but if it does manage to migrate farther south foggy conditions could return to the northern Outer Banks later this afternoon.

A similar pattern will continue into the weekend, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. The strongest signal for widespread inland fog is for tonight with Tds at their highest and winds still expected to be light. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight, and fog could extend inland from the coast at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones during the afternoons, especially through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast.

A weak front will enter the Carolinas Sunday and hang around through Monday, leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will keep temps a couple of degrees cooler, but still well above normal. Confidence in rainfall has increased with PoPs now categorical, although rainfall amounts do not look to exceed half an inch. After this front lifts back to the north, potentially even warmer conditions are likely to develop by mid next week ahead of a large frontal system.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

There are two important aviation impacts that we will be monitoring over the next 24 hours. The first is a cold front that is currently sliding south along the Northern OBX. Upstream obs in SE Virginia have shown significant drops in CIGs and VIS, with IFR/LIFR conditions ongoing there. Similar conditions are expected for runways along the Northern OBX for at least a few hours late this afternoon into early this evening. The front will also be accompanied by a NE/E wind shift. The front is expected to stall, and not make it much further south than the Northern OBX.

Attention then turns to BR/FG/low CIGs later this evening into Saturday morning. The overall pattern is very similar to the past couple of days, and the TAFs reflect the expectation for widespread IFR/LIFR conditions in stratus and FG. Of note, guidance shows a higher probability of LIFR conditions tonight compared to last night. VFR conditions are expected to return by 14-15z on Saturday.

LIFR PROBABILITY (06z-13z Saturday)

KEWN: 70-90% KPGV: 60-80% KOAJ: 70-90% KISO: 60-80%

Outlook: A cold front will move into the area on Sunday, leading to a change in the weather pattern, but also bringing with it an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. This risk may linger into early next week.

MARINE

SEA FOG: Sea fog has been slow to erode across the coastal waters from Cape Hatteras south through Surf City. Because of this, the Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been extended out through 3pm. We'll continue to re-evaluate this potential through the afternoon. Sea fog may also redevelop across the northern waters as a backdoor cold front struggles to push southward towards the Albemarle Peninsula.

A similar pattern will continue tonight, and sea fog will likely persist, or redevelop, in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight.

WINDS/SEAS: Pleasant boating conditions are expected (outside of fog) for the next couple of days with high pressure offshore. Winds will be SSW/SW at 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft.

Outlook: The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine area. A stronger front may cross the region in the middle of next week, although significant timing and intensity differences remain.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 85/1961 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 76/1992 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1992 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 85/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 82/1961 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1974 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/2022 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/1908 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 85/1974 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158.