textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal flood advisories have been cancelled.

High surf advisory extended through this evening to account for the lingering long period swell.

Increased chances for a wintry mix Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fresh snowpack means overnight lows will be quite cold and threaten record lows the next few nights.

2) Travel will remain treacherous through at least mid week due to the lingering snow cover.

3) A threat for a wintry mix is increasing as temperatures drop below freeezing Wednesday night. Freezing rain and snow will be the primary precip type concerns.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Extremely cold air will stick around behind the winter storm with the potential to set additional new record low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows are currently forecast to be in the single digits to low teens if winds become calm, and 15-25F along the immediate coast and OBX Monday morning. The areas that don't see single digit MinTs will be due to wind, which will make the wind chill values between 0 and 5 above. Because of this, Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for the mainland, with Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the OBX zones. High temps edge above freezing today, but likely not above the mid 30s for most areas. Lows tonight should be quite cold due to even less wind, and good rad cooling atop snowpack allow for lows to easily drop into the mid to perhaps low 10s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant impacts from the departing winter storm continue, with travel being extremely treacherous esp during the nighttime and morning hours when temps are at or below freezing. Travel impacts will continue for many days, as melting snow Monday onwards will refreeze each night bringing a risk of black ice and slippery conditions on a lot of roads, bridges, and walkways.

Potential Life Threatening Situations: The combination of these hazards will make travel dangerous and could lead to life threatening situations if motorists become stranded due to the extreme cold temperatures coming overnight and in the early morning hours.

A coastal flood advisory is in effect from Ocracoke north through Hatteras to the NOBX for a threat for 1-2 ft inundation above ground level as ocean overwash remains possible with strong wave action still battering the coast. We have had reports of overwash freezing, further adding to hazardous travel.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A dampening northern stream shortwave and attendant cold front will approach the area Tuesday night and push across the area Wednesday bringing a cold rain across the region. Temps may drop to near freezing Tuesday evening but will warm into the mid 30s for most as clouds increase with model soundings showing a warm nose centered around 925 mb, so p-type is expected to remain rain with this initial shortwave and cont into Wed.

Wed night is when wintry weather may fall, as sfc front will have pushed through, allowing for temps to drop to freezing or below, aided by the snow cover. This secondary wave may cont to prodcue precip, and would be a mix of light snow and light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. The snow cover would only aid the sfc temps reaching below freezing. At this time, have wx type becoming mostly snow for areas north of Hwy 264, and rain becoming mostly freezing rain for areas to the south of Hwy 264. Any snow or freezing rain amounts should be light, with snow totals less than a half inch and freezing rain less than a tenth of an inch. Pops remain in the chc range, and the probability of wintry precip is still nowhere near certain. Cont to monitor the fcst.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds in place through Monday night, and expect such conditions to continue into Tuesday.

Outlook: Conditions likely remaining VFR into Tuesday night, although there is a low end potential (10% chance) of some shallow fog to form Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as southwesterly winds bring some relatively moist air into the region. Expansive snowpack over ENC should help cool down this moist air mass on top of it, with large uncertainty on if it cools enough to reach saturation. As a worst case scenario could see a combination of sea fog with the SW flow over cool waters coming onshore in addition to radiational fog away from the coast late Tuesday. Another weak weather system will push across the area Wednesday into early Thursday that may produce sub- VFR conditions in predominantly light rain with some potential for some light snow as well.

MARINE

A strong low pressure system will continue to produce dangerous marine conditions through today with lingering large long period swell. SCA winds will drop first for the sounds and Alligator river through this morning, but linger into the evening for the cont 6+ foot seas in the coastal waters.

Outlook: On Tue night into Wed, swrly flow inc ahead of a cold front. Due to the now very cold nearshore and sound waters, the incoming airmass will be quite stable and a stout marine inversion prevents SCA conditions for all but the Gulf Stream waters. Wed night, strong cold front passes through, with all waters and sounds back to SCA conditions due to CAA north to northwest winds. Late in the week into the weekend, an even stronger reinforcing arctic front will brings solid SCA to gale force winds.

CLIMATE

Record Low temps for 02/02 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 19 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 20 1977 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12 1971 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 13 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 16 1980 (NCA ASOS)

Record Low temps for 02/03 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 9 1917 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 12 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ156-158.