textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A strong cold front will approach ENC tonight before crossing the region Sunday, with strong and cold high pressure building back in through Monday. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another cold front moves through Thursday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1 PM Saturday...Temperatures have quickly warmed into the low-to-mid 60s as of early Saturday afternoon as heights rise aloft ahead of the strong cold front that will push through ENC tomorrow. Temperatures will cool to the low-to-mid 40s by around midnight tonight before rebounding to around 50 as dawn approaches amidst increasing southwesterly flow and WAA ahead of the approaching cold front. Rain chances begin to increase just before dawn across the western/northern portions of the forecast area as the front approaches.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/

As of 130 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Strong cold front to move through Sunday with sharply falling temps and breezy conditions through afternoon.

- Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Hatteras Island and the NOBX from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

- Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range Sunday night/Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is has been issued for all of ENC.

An upper-level trough will dig into the mid-Atlantic region through the day on Sunday, with a strengthening 150 kt jet streak located downstream of this feature. DCVA coupled with forcing from the jet streak will yield strengthening low pressure offshore of the mid-Atlantic states, which will aid in driving a strong cold front through the region early Sunday.

While moisture is somewhat limited, favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area, but rainfall totals are expected to be light (generally around a tenth of an inch or less). Chances begin to increase across the western and northern portions of the forecast area around dawn on Sunday before decreasing from west- to-east during the afternoon and early evening hours. Bulk of the precip will be rain, but a stray flake or two may mix in with rain across the northern portions of the forecast area as precipitation comes to an end Sunday afternoon. No impacts or accumulation are expected, however.

Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of the approaching cold front through Sunday morning, but the pressure gradient will tighten sharply after the cold front passes as low pressure deepens offshore and an Arctic High builds in from the northwest. Northwesterly winds will be breezy behind this front, with gusts 25-35 mph possible across ENC. Winds will be strongest along Hatteras Island and the NOBX, with gusts of 35-45 mph forecast late Sunday and into Sunday night. Have issued a Wind Advisory for these areas given expected winds/gusts.

Daytime highs will be reached across the forecast area by Sunday morning as the cold front pushes through ENC and moves offshore by noon, with cold air advection bringing falling temperatures through the afternoon. Temps fall into the 30s by Sunday evening before plummeting further into the upper-teens (low-20s OBX) Monday morning. Coupled with breezy northwesterly winds behind the cold front, this will bring the coldest night of the season thus far, resulting in wind chill values of 5-15 F across ENC Monday morning. In response, have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for all of ENC from late Sunday evening through Monday morning. Will continue to monitor potential for an Extreme Cold Warning should lows trend colder over the coming forecast cycles.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 2 PM Saturday...

Monday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day. Monday night will be cold once again, with temps in the low-20s (near 30 OBX). Unlike Sunday night, however, winds will remain light. As of now, this is expected to keep minimum apparent temperature values near but just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, with minimum wind chills in the 15-25 F range.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-20%) and Thursday night (30-50%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region late Thursday night.

Friday through Saturday...Cold front pushes east by week's end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system are forecast to be weaker than tomorrow's system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 640 PM Sat...

Key Messages

- VFR conditions expected through late tonight - MVFR ceilings develop early Sunday morning and linger into Sunday afternoon

Clear skies and light winds will persist through the first half of tonight as high pressure remains in place ahead of a cold front. After midnight clouds will begin to increase from west to east, with ceilings developing and lowering to MVFR levels by 5-7 am. At this time, scattered light rain will move into the area, leading to further lowering of ceilings to 1500-2000 ft through the rest of the morning hours. Most guidance has only low probabilities of IFR conditions developing (odds of 10-20% or less), but some brief periods are possible especially where rain is the steadiest, between 13-18z. Improving conditions expected tomorrow afternoon, however strong NW winds will develop with wind gusts 20-30 mph possible. Finally, increasing LLWS may bring issues to terminals overnight, mostly from 1-6 am.

Outlook: Gusty NW winds expected Sunday behind the front with winds remaining elevated into Monday. VFR conditions persist through midweek.

MARINE

As of 2 PM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Gale conditions Sunday afternoon through Sunday night for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 30-40 kt expected

Through this Evening...Good boating conditions will persist in the short term through this evening as high pressure eases offshore. Current observations show southwesterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts and seas 2-3 ft.

Tonight...Pressure gradient tightens tonight as cold front begins to approach from the northwest. In response, SCA conditions are expected to develop across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with southwesterly winds increasing to 20-25 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Winds will be a bit lighter across the northern coastal waters and sounds/inland rivers, with winds 10-15 kts and gusts around 20 kts (although, occasional gusts to 25 kts will be possible across the southern and eastern Pamlico Sound). Seas build to 4-6 ft south (2-4 ft north) of Oregon Inlet tonight.

Sunday through Sunday night...Strong CAA begins Sunday morning with passage of arctic front. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly with the frontal passage and quickly build to Gales across most of the area waters. Have upgraded the rest of the Gale Watches to Gale Warnings as of this forecast cycle. SCA conditions remain for the Neuse/Bay/Pamlico/Pungo Rivers; however, some guidance does indicate roughly a 30-50% chance of reaching Gale Force gusts across these waters. This will be monitored across future forecast cycles for any potential updates. Seas build through the day on Sunday before peaking at 6-10 ft across the coastal waters Sunday night.

Monday...Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions late morning/early afternoon on Monday. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night, and gusts may flirt with SCA again across the Gulf Stream waters, especially south and east of Cape Hatteras.

Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft.

Thursday night into Friday...Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199- 203>205. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ150- 152-154-156-158.