textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion section for 00Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

1) Localized severe threat for coastal areas Sun afternoon. Drier inland and northern areas.

2) A thunderstorm risk, some potentially severe, for Mon afternoon for coastal areas again.

3) Perhaps some drier weather for Tue, but then more unsettled pattern may return for mid to late week with sct afternoon showers/storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another mid-level shortwave will lift northeastward through the SE and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. With a seabreeze pinned east of Hwy 17, these two features will act in tandem to produce sct thunderstorms Sun afternoon into the evening. Some of these storms may be strong to marginally svr, as 2,600+ J/KG of CAPE and 25-30+ kt of shear will be in place. Have inc pops near the coast to 40-60%, while interior zones are in the 10-20% range. Best chance of svr storms will be east of Hwy 17 stretching from around Richlands to New Bern to Engelhard. With recent heavy rains, a localized flood threat may materialize, as PW's are still in the 90th or higher percentile range.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Similar setup for Mon, as area is on east side of broad level troughing with yet more shortwave energy swinging through and front hung up near the coast interacting with afternoon seabreeze. EFI for CAPE/Shear is around the 80th percentile, suggesting a severe risk if storms can develop and organize. Best chances again for eastern zones.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An anomalously strong upper level trough is forecast to translate east and finally move offshore by Tue but then dampen with return of sswrly flow and moisture off the GOM. This will bring more unsettled wx back to ENC in the form of showers and storms with pops back into the 40-60% range, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. Temps will be back to slightly above climo, esp for the overnight periods as warm/humid airmass will be in place.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Forecast confidence is low to moderate with respect to IFR/LIFR fg or low stratus tonight. Consistent calm winds may be hard to come by tonight, so fog threat is a slight bit lower, reflected in the most recent TAFs. Still, low stratus remains possible for all terminals, with the best chance west of hwy 17 (PGV, ISO, OAJ).

Any fog or low stratus will dissipate in the morning, leading to VFR conditions again. Some showers and storms possible in the afternoon, esp OAJ and EWN and have added prob30s to TAFs to handle this.

Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Mainly VFR, though patchy fog/low stratus may develop each night. More unsettled weather returns for Wed into late week, with tempo reductions in cigs and vsby.

MARINE

Ocnl tsra will ride up over the Gulf Stream tonight, producing locally strong winds and frequent lightning. Otherwise, swrly winds remain in the 5-15 kt range with seas of 2-4 ft through Sunday.

Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Cont wrly to swrly winds expected through next week, but speeds will cont in the 5-15 kt range through next week with seas no higher than 2-3 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.