textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 8 PM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid for the next few days. Heat headlines active for today and potentially again on TUE and WED.

2) Unsettled pattern through middle of the upcoming week. Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

3) After a strong front moves through the area late WED into THU, a brief reprieve from the heat end of next week, though showers and tstorms chances remain above CLIMO until next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions will continue today. Heat Adv in place for most of the area with heat index values 105-110 deg through early evening. We will see a dip in heat MON with greater cloud coverage through the day and more rain helping bump down MaxTs into the upper 80s and low 90s, but SWern zones may still require heat headlines. TUE and WED MaxTs climb back into the low 90s for most and afternoon Tds approaching 80deg will bring heat headlines back into play.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There are several factors expected to support an increasingly active pattern into next week.

Upper level troughing will continue to strengthen over the Eastern U.S. with ridging shifting away from the area. Persistent S-SWerly flow E of the trough, potentially with a subtropical connection, should act to enhance low-mid level moisture across the area. Meanwhile, heating of a moistening boundary layer should lead to sufficient instability and reduced inhibition in support of periods of convection. Lee- side troughing and, eventually, a frontal boundary that will reach the FA by MON should provide areas of enhanced low- level forcing today with gradually improving mid and upper level flow becoming more conducive to organized storm modes as trough aloft sharpens.

Today, the SFC front currently draped through central VA will approach the FA. General trend appears to be a slight slow down of the front entering the Nern FA, sometime this evening or the first half of tonight. SPC's outlook for today features a Slight Risk (lvl 2/5) for the bulk of the area. Scattered showers and storms blossoming across the area quickly this afternoon. Latest mesoanalysis shows SBCAPEs on the order of 4-5 kJ/kg across the area with bulk shear 20-30 kt. Moisture pooling and low level convergence will be maximized this afternoon into tonight as the cold front approaches. PWATs peak on the order of 2 and 3/4in in conjunction with increasing afternoon and evening instability. Main concerns will be the potential for damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and freq lightning late afternoon into tonight. WPC continues its Slight Risk for excessive rainfall today, highlighting the potential for localized flash flooding.

The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories for TD Two. Though no explicitly tropical impacts are expected from this system locally, this low could act to enhance rainfall along the SE coast by further increasing Gulf moisture transport from its Eern half through early next week while the stalled lingers across the region.

Tropics aside, deterministic and machine learning guidance continue to show a good signal for some strong to marginally severe thunderstorm potential during this period of active weather. This afternoon and eve remains the strongest signal for severe potential through TUE. Given increased forcing from the approaching front and the potential tap of subtropical moisture, heavy rain and some hydro impacts may eventually be realized.

MON, the stalled boundary located somewhere between the Neuse River and the NC/VA border, inland troughing persisting, and plenty of moisture influx from the S and SW will keep cloudy and active forecast in place. Fortunately, the mid and upper level trough over NECONUS will be pushing offshore, ending the little mid and upper level dynamic support system for organized convection. Iso strong storms with damaging wind gusts will be possible, along with the threat for heavy rain which could lead to localized flooding. MON night, the boundary lifts back N, "warm- sectoring" the FA once again for TUE and WED.

A stronger front is forecast to approach and cross the area WED into THU, posing the next threat for severe weather later in the forecast period. Upper level pattern for this FROPA appears more supportive of stronger storms with a sharper trough aloft digging further S than the weekend trough, with the base of this trough actually crossing directly overhead.

KEY MESSAGE 3...WED/THU stronger front is forecast to make it through the entirety of the land area of ENC, but still stall offshore. This will lead to mostly N-NEerly flow late week into the weekend, cutting down on the heat (mid to upper 80s/upper 60s splits into the weekend). Severe threat appears minimal behind the midweek front, but the multi day period of showers in the forecast could lead to hydro issues.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR flight cats expected outside of storms into tonight with SW breeze. Showers and storms blossoming across the area this afternoon, with increasing coverage later this afternoon into the evening. Periods of sub-VFR likely. A few stronger storms are also possible, with potential for damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Guidance is hinting at post- frontal stratus and potentially dense fog along and immediately behind (north) of the front overnight and Mon morning. Best chances north of Hwy 70. VFR expected to return by late Mon morning. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected again Monday, with potential for iso stronger storms.

Outlook (Monday night through Friday): Another approaching front, this one looking stronger, renews stronger shower and thunderstorm chances WED into THU.

MARINE

Latest surface and buoy obs indicate SW winds 10-20 kt gusting 20-30 kt, strongest over the Gulf Stream, with seas 2-4 ft north of Hatteras and 4-7 ft south. SCAs continue for Pamlico Sound and nearshore coastal waters through tonight. Approaching cold front will stall across the northern waters late tonight into Monday, keeping light easterly flow north of the boundary and moderate to breezy S-SW winds south. Seas will peak this afternoon and evening, grad subsiding to 3-5 ft Monday morning.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected across the waters through Monday. Sct strong to severe storms likely with damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and freq lightning.

Outlook (Monday night through Friday): For the outer waters, elevated winds and seas may last for much of the week. A stronger front is forecast to approach and cross regional waters mid to late week, bringing another round of strengthening SW winds and tstorm chances, mainly later Tue and Wed. SCA conditions likely to develop later Tue cont into Wed night.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158.