textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front currently situated just south of the area will lift back north as a warm front today before again shifting southward Friday night as a cold front. An area of low pressure will develop along the front Saturday before pushing farther offshore on Sunday. High pressure then builds back in by early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 2 AM Friday...

Current observations and analysis depict a cold front stalled just south of ENC. This front will gradually shift back northward through Friday morning amidst developing southwesterly, warm air advection across the region. Coupled with westerly downslope flow, this will yield warmer highs today compared to yesterday, with temperatures forecast to push into the low-60s across much of ENC.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/

As of 215 AM Friday...

A shortwave moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight should then push the above-mentioned warm front back southward through ENC as a cold front Friday night. Concurrently, a second shortwave will traverse eastward across the Southern Plains and Southeastern US, with an attendant, weak surface low also tracking eastward. Increasing low-to-mid level frontogenesis is expected to develop in advance of the approaching shortwave and an associated area of low pressure. This combined with increasing mid-level moisture along the frontal zone may lead to light rain developing prior to sunrise Saturday morning. Current guidance suggests that at least some low-level dry air will remain entrenched across the region through Friday night, however. Coupled with the timing of better forcing and moisture expected later Saturday, this will likely result in any precipitation that does develop late tonight remaining on the light side until later Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 230 AM Friday...

Key Messages...

- A coastal low will likely bring rain to much of ENC this weekend Saturday...The aforementioned shortwave will swing eastward across the Southeast on Saturday, with a weak surface low forecast to strengthen along the stalled frontal boundary along/just south of the Crystal Coast into Saturday night before pushing farther offshore Sunday. Warm air advection and an increase in low-to-mid level frontogenesis will combine to yield better forcing for ascent across ENC during the day on Saturday, with the best chances of rain currently forecast Saturday afternoon through the early overnight hours. 00Z guidance has trended slightly southward with the location of this low, but rainfall amounts are still forecast to be generally a quarter to three quarters of an inch; although, the amounts will be dependent on the final track of the low (closer to or farther from shore). Temps are forecast to remain seasonable (highs in the 50s) ahead on Saturday.

Sunday/Monday...Rain chances drop off early Sunday morning as the low pulls offshore. High pressure building into the region will bring clearing skies and slightly cooler temps, with highs near 50 Sunday/Monday.

Tuesday/Wednesday...High pressure shifts offshore early-to-mid next week. In response, winds swing to southwesterly, which will allow temps to climb well into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak cold front may then approach the region on Thursday ahead of the next potential chances for rain late in the week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 12:15 PM Friday...Predominantly VFR flight cats expected through Saturday morning with conditions deteriorating thereafter.

For the rest of today, expect 5-10 kt SW winds and increasing high clouds. Winds will become light and veer to the NE through the overnight hours as a dry cold front drops south across the FA. Simultaneously, an area of low pressure will approach the region, further increasing cloud cover and lowering CIGs.

Winds will remain out of the NE at 5-10 kt with CIGs expected to drop to MVFR by the end of the period. CIGs at OAJ, ISO, and EWN may be borderline IFR by 18Z with widespread drops to IFR expected shortly after the end of the period. Rain is expected to overspread the area from south to north starting late tomorrow morning with drops to MVFR VIS possible later tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions are expected to continue into Saturday night. All precip should be offshore by sunrise Sunday but low clouds could persist into the morning hours. High pressure will return early next week with pred VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

As of 600 AM Friday...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft Advisory issued for the coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet through early this afternoon

- Low pressure traversing along the coastline Saturday/Sunday will bring another round of elevated winds and seas

Observations as of 6 AM Friday show some 25+ kt gusts already occurring along the Gulf Stream waters as the warm front lifts through the region. This is overperforming compared to the latest high-res model guidance and with an expected slight uptick in winds/gusts along the Gulf Stream through this morning, have opted to issue an SCA for the coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet through early this afternoon for wind gusts up to 25-30 kts. Occasional gusts to 25 kts are possible this morning south of Cape Lookout but are expected to be brief compared to the waters farther north up the coast. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft today. With winds overperforming to start the morning, cannot rule out some 6 footers across the outer central waters.

The warm front then dips back south through the area Friday night, with an associated northerly wind shift. Weak low pressure will then work eastward across the Southeastern US before strengthening along/just south of the ENC coastline Saturday into Saturday night before pulling offshore Sunday. Expecting elevated northeasterly winds and seas along with rain across area waters, with SCA conditions likely developing Saturday evening. As the low strengthens while pulling farther offshore, there is a chance for Gale conditions to develop across the coastal waters, mainly between Capes Lookout and Hatteras Saturday night. This potential will continue to be monitored.

High pressure then builds back in late Sunday as winds shift to northwesterly and conditions begin to improve. Winds will then gradually shift to southwesterly Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure shifts offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156.