textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marine headlines have been updated for the northerly surge behind today's FROPA. This includes the first issuance of an SCA for the Neuse River, an upgrade to Gale Warnings for coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout, and the first issuance of Gale Warnings for offshore waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout.

Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible for Sern zones today. Greatest threat remains strong to severe wind gusts with a chance of strongest storms also producing hail.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front will move through today. Widespread rain showers and at least a slight chance of thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. Some isolated thunderstorms could be strong to severe in the convergence zone between the cold front and the slow moving seabreeze, generally along and near the Crystal Coast.

2) Monday's front lifts back N as a warm front late TUE into WED followed by another cold front THU representing the next wave of showers and thunderstorms. Warming and dry into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong shortwave to push through ENC today. This system is forecast to have fairly strong dynamics with troughing aloft pivoting over ECONUS to become more negatively tilted as it crosses the coast. The trend over the last few days has been to delay its arrival to more following the front as opposed to with it, as well as broadening it some compare to how sharp it was forecast to be three to four days ago. At the SFC a cold front will push through the region with moisture pooling out ahead of the front as PWATs surge to about 1.25 to 1.75 inches across ENC during the morning morning. Latest guidance suggest front will push through our northern zones around sunrise and continue pushing slowly S toward the Crystal Coast in the afternoon.

The greatest chance for strong to severe thunderstorms is mainly confined to areas S of Hwy 70 and E of HWY17 along the Crystal Coast/offshore waters. Hi-Res guidance continues to show scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity near the Crystal Coast this afternoon with a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible, while further to the N more isolated showers and a lower tstm threat resides. Precip in the Nern half of the area is likely to start as showers ahead of the front, transitioning to more overrunning/elevated convection later in the day once the front has sunk S. Main threat within the strongest storms would be damaging wind gusts, heavy downpours, and hail. Instability will be maximized and midlevel wind shear will increase in the convergence zone between the seabreeze and the cold front late morning into the early afternoon. Long skinny CAPE profiles generally show instability values between 0.5-1kJ/KG over Nern zones in the morning with more robust CAPE profiles on the order of 1.5-2kJ/kg depending on which model you look at in this convergence zone. Strong to severe winds gusts will accompany strongest storms with a low end chance of some hail development in tallest/most persistent updrafts. Low level wind shear looks to be meager, discounting the tornado threat, but mesoscale dynamics along the converging boundaries mean brief spin ups can't be completely ruled out. SPC has bumped the border of the Marginal threat (level 1/5) further N from yesterday's afternoon issuance, about back to where it was this time yesterday, highlighting the convergence zone.

General QPF footprint has remained the same with the totals coming into better focus; event total QPF for inland and Nern zones that are away from the greatest instability and convergence, light showers with little vertical development early, a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Convergence zone mentioned above could see in excess of an inch of precip under stronger cells. Bulk of precip activity expected to move offshore with sunset, though some straggling showers may skirt the Inner and Outer Banks the first half of tonight.

Stout CAA out of the N behind the front (strongest winds this evening into tonight). These winds will be strongest over areas adjacent to water, 20-25kt gusts mainland coast, 25-30kt OBX with inland areas seeing generally 15-20kt. The incoming high pressure will bring in cool air and keep skies mostly clear into WED. MinTs tonight in the mid to upper 40s most, low to mid 50s immediate coast. Low 70s TUE.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stacked low cutting across the Sern extent of the Great Lakes and high pressure migrating offshore brings warm and moist air across the Carolinas mid week ahead of the next front set to cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday time frame. This system will have decent dynamics to work with but current timing is working against it with limited instability due to FROPA outside of peak heating. Will continue to monitor the potential for severe weather potential with this system. High pressure transits ECONUS and sets up offshore through late week leading to warming trend and dry weather into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Winds managed to briefly decouple this morning with very patchy fog, locally dense at times, managing to develop at most terminals. With the sun rising and winds picking back up, fog is either burning off or lifting to low stratus decks and will give way to widespread VFR later this morning.

Cold front currently pushing towards PGV will cross the region later this morning into the afternoon, with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms especially from EWN southward after 18z. A few stronger storms are possible with gusts of 40+ kt and small hail, along with heavy rain. Lowering cigs will encroach behind the boundary with more stable air also ending thunder chances, and MVFR will likely linger this afternoon to around sunset before scattering out from north to south.

Some guidance is hinting at redevelopment of fog in some spots early Tues morning, which could be possible if winds manage to ease. This seems more unlikely than today, and odds of fog formation at any given site is around 10%.

Outlook: Confidence is high mid-week when the next system will move through the area with additional showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

SWerly winds strengthen some this morning ahead of next FROPA with a strong Nerly surge forecast behind the front this afternoon into tonight. Front crosses Nern waters this morning, Sern half of the area later this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorm chances steadily increase through the day with categorical PoPs and tstorms likely over waters S of Hatteras. Some of these storms could warrant SMWs for strong winds and perhaps hail. Lower PoPs up N, but still likely to see some showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Marine headlines reflect guidance coming in stronger with the post frontal Nerly surge. Coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout have been upgraded to Gale Warnings with strongest gusts expected to be in the 35-40kt range. Have added Neuse/Bay Rivers to the inland water SCAs with NNEerly winds funneling off the PamSound. Coastal waters S of Lookout were omitted from Gale headlines as the bulk of the strongest winds will be confined to the Gulf Stream waters 15-20nm out. The Nern coastal waters were left as an SCA as gale gusts are expected to be fairly short lived here. Far Eern portions of the Pamlico Sound will likely see at least some gale force gusts for a few hours behind the front this evening, but the majority of the zone will see gusts AoB 30kt. All precip activity expected to move outside of 60nm after midnight tonight.

Outlook (Tuesday into lateweek): Winds diminish later TUE into WED as high pressure briefly reestablishes itself. SCAs will be needed once the coastal water gales drop off after midnight tonight with seas over outer portions of these waters remaining 6+ft through TUE. Today's front lifts back N through the region mid- week ahead of the next front to cross late WED into THU, bringing yet another potential round of showers, storms, and SCA conditions to our waters. High pressure sets up offshore after the midweek front allowing for calming seas and relaxing winds with a dry and warming forecast lasting into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-182-184-186. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ158.