textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Added smoke to weather grids overnight with satellite fire detection showing hot spot over Coastal Onslow near Camp Lejeune. Smoke evident from Hubert to NJM and Newport. Background wind-field goes predominantly NWerly but very light in the early morning hours, which should help take any remaining smoke SEward off the coast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated water levels will continue to impact some OBX and coastal communities through this evening's high tide.

2) High pressure builds in through the week with warming temperatures and lighter winds.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...While seas have decreased considerably over the last 24 hours, there is still some potential for minor ocean overwash at the next high tide this evening (around 8 PM) for portions of the Outer Banks. In addition, minor soundside flooding (1 ft or less) is still possible for coastal areas due to already elevated waters levels and high astronomical tides. CF Advisories continue through late tonight. No plan to extend coastal flood advisory at the moment; astro tide peaks on TUE, but seas have fallen substantially and winds overnight and MON will be significantly weaker than today. After tonight's high tide, no "new flooding," i.e. ocean overwash is expected, but there still may be standing water on roadways, in low lying or poor drainage areas, which would still have travel impacts. Places that saw flooding this morning will still see elevated water levels through the early week, but do not think as high as today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Southeast U.S. later this week, but guidance has slowed down some on when this occurs. In light of this, the warmest temperatures of the week have trended towards the end of the week (Thursday/Friday). Beneath the ridge, warming low-level thicknesses and persistent southerly flow may allow inland highs to get back close to 90 degrees (roughly 10 degrees above normal as we head into the first few days of October). The humidity is forecast to steadily return as well, but with ridging in place, the chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to stay low for much of the week. The next front will approach the area next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

An area of low-level moisture convergence appears to be what is supporting an area of mid-level CIGs (6-7k ft) across much of the TAF sites at this time. However, trends on satellite and model guidance suggest these CIGs should mostly diminish by 08-09z. In the wake of the clouds, guidance suggests MIFG may develop thanks to decent radiational cooling conditions. For now this has been left out of the TAFs due to uncertainty with cloudcover and the presence of a drier airmass. During the day on Monday, mostly clear skies are expected along with light and variable winds. Another round of mid- level cigs may pivot south out of VA and into northern NC Monday evening, and a SCT to BKN mid-level cloud group has been added to KPGV and KISO for that time. South of those clouds, guidance suggests a better chance of MIFG/BR as low-level moisture may be higher than tonight, and there will continue to be good radiational cooling conditions.

Of note, an ongoing fire in Onslow County may cause some temporary reductions to VIS around KMRH overnight. The greatest chance of sub-VFR VIS should be confined closer to the fire, itself, though.

Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of MIFG/BR, it appears that a mostly quiet period for aviation is in the cards through at least the middle part of the week.

MARINE

Latest obs show W to WSW winds 10-20 kt with seas 3-6 ft north of Ocracoke and 2-5 ft south, highest offshore. Moderate winds will continue overnight with seas grad subsiding. W-WNW winds 5-15 kt early Mon, becoming W/SW by afternoon.

Outlook: Several days of much-improved boating conditions are anticipated for much of this week. Light winds expected through Thursday. Seas of 2-3 ft are forecast for much of the week as well.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.