textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Stronger winds look to remain in place across the OBX and coastal waters longer.

Gale warnings have been extended slightly based off recent trends.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Large and slow moving coastal low to impact ENC with periods of rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding starting today and persisting into late week.

MARINE: Gale force winds and very dangerous high seas mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...No significant changes to forecast thinking as a consolidation of surface lows is expected to occur along an elongated baroclinic zone off the U.S. East Coast later today. Rapid deepening of this low pressure is then forecast later tonight into Thursday as a notable coastal low takes shape. This low is then forecast to move north towards Southern New England, then eventually weaken as it potentially wobbles around the New England coast over the weekend. Regarding the track and the strength of this low, most guidance has shifted slightly later in this lows exit keeping stronger winds in place slightly longer across the area waters and OBX. Will note, not all guidance is as slow or as deep with this lows departure and while the current forecast has trended slightly up compared to the previous forecast, some further adjustments including a decrease in wind potential is not out of the question just yet.

Regarding sensible weather, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to persist through Thursday with the best chances to see precipitation likely along and east of Hwy 17. While an area of focused lift and higher rainfall totals may still develop, the latest guidance continues to back off on this potential, and it appears the risk of flooding due to rain remains low.

By far, the greatest impacts with this coastal low are expected for the Outer Banks. There, a period of moderate to strong northeast to north winds are expected to develop later today, and then potentially last well into the day Friday and potentially as late as Saturday morning, especially if the latest westward and slower trend holds. Probabilistic guidance shows a strong signal for reaching Wind Advisory criteria with both sustained winds and gusts, and the wind advisory for Dare County, Ocracoke, and Downeast Carteret County remains in effect starting later this afternoon. For the OBX from Cape Hatteras north, peak gusts could top out around 50 mph, and this may lead to some minor tree and power line damage, along with a risk of isolated power outages.

The strong, and longer duration, of the winds is also expected to support an increased risk of coastal impacts. Building seas and increasing swell periods will lead to dangerous surf conditions in addition to a risk of beach erosion, wave runup, ocean overwash, and minor to moderate coastal flooding. Wave heights in the surf zone may reach 10-15ft at 10-13s from Duck to Cape Hatteras, peaking on Thursday. 6-8ft+ wave heights in the surf zone may last into this weekend. A High Surf Advisory Remains in effect through Saturday evening. The strength, and duration, of the swell is expected to lead to an increased risk of ocean overwash and moderate coastal flooding for the vulnerable stretches of the coastline along Hatteras Island. Where dune structures are less vulnerable, minor coastal flooding will be possible.

For soundside areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, and the nearby Neuse River, persistent northeasterly winds may lead to minor coastal flooding later Wednesday through Friday. Eventually the winds are expected to turn more northerly, which may then allow the soundside coastal flooding risk to shift to portions of Ocracoke and Hatteras Villages.

Please continue to stay tuned for future updates as this is a complex and longer-duration coastal low event, with subtle changes in strength and path of the low leading to increased, or decreased, coastal impacts.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

No real change in forecast thinking as a mix of LIFR/IFR remain along and west of Hwy 17 with MVFR ceilings noted east of Hwy 17 as low stratus continues to plague the area under steady NE flow from a developing coastal low. Have seen some isolated to widely scattered showers and drizzle this morning as well across ENC. Conditions are generally expected to vary between LIFR to MVFR through this morning and into tonight as low stratus continues to stream into ENC today. SHRA and isolated TSRA will continue to threaten all terminals today, though best chances would be closer to the coast and near the EWN/OAJ terminals as this will be where the best lift is noted. Regardless, VCSH is noted across all terminals today starting around 14-16Z to account for the threat for precip. IFR is most likely to hold through much of the period across the inner coastal plain (PGV and ISO), while closer to the coast a return to MVFR for a portion of the day is possible - that being said, probabilities of IFR here remain 25-30% through the daytime hours.

As the aforementioned coastal low becomes better organized east of ENC today, a strengthening gradient should lead to increasing NE winds, with a gradual increase in the risk of 20-25kt gusts. Winds do look to ease this evening with steady NE winds noted at 10-15 kts tonight. Low stratus looks to continue to plague the area this evening as well as the aforementioned low remains off the coast of NC tonight.

Outlook: A coastal low will continue to support periods of gusty winds, low CIGs, and SHRA through the end of the week. CIGs may eventually rise to VFR levels by the weekend as drier air begins to wraparound the western periphery of the low.

MARINE

Consolidating and deepening low pressure off the North Carolina coast will result in dangerous boating conditions over the next few days. For the coastal Waters, gale force NErly winds are forecast to overspread the area later today with 20-30 kt winds and 35-45 kt gusts forecast for just about all of the waters outside of the Pamlico/Pungo/Neuse/Bay Rivers where SCA conditions will be noted. Seas of 10-20ft will be possible, especially for the waters from Cape Lookout north through Duck. The nearshore coastal waters sheltered in N and NE flow south of Lookout may only have seas peak at 5-10ft. Swell periods will gradually build to 10-13s during this time as well. Marine headlines in effect nicely cover the expected hazards, and the only changes were to adjust the ending times for a few areas.

Outlook: Based on the latest guidance, hazardous marine conditions may last well into the weekend, especially for the coastal waters as seas remain elevated. However, winds should gradually lay down over the weekend as the low pulls away and Weakens.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ047-196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Friday for NCZ094-194-196. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Friday for NCZ203. Coastal Flood Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Friday for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ131-135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-180-182. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ154-184-186. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158-188.