textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered minimum temperatures mid week.

Extended period of dry weather forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Arctic airmass builds in through mid-week with coldest airmass since mid February. Mins well down below freezing on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

2) Extended period of dry weather expected and continue drought conditions across ENC.

Marine...Slowly improving marine conditions as high pressure builds.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Arctic high pres builds in today through Thu. The afternoon's CAA and the center of the high settling almost directly overhead late Tue night/early Wed will lead to clearing skies and calming winds. These conditions will prime the FA for strong radiational cooling effects, leading to MinTs well down in the 20s for mainland areas, with 30s DownEast, beachfront, and OBX nearer the warmer waters. Have gone with a NBM 10% as guidance continues to be a bit too warm with the anomalously cold air mass that will be in place. Any planting that has been done given our recent stretch of warm weather should take proper precautions to protect plants and any outdoor pipes before we moderate Thursday through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pres will dominate in the extended, leading to little relief for the drought conditions that are already in place. Minimum RH values will be low each afternoon due to the dry airmass in place, though with the recent rains, fire weather conditions will be low through the next several days.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR flight cats through the TAF period with some FEW-SCT fairweather CU ~FL050-070 and some upper level clouds streaming overhead this afternoon as high pressure builds in behind yesterday's cold front. Diminishing NWerly winds ~10G15kt this morning become more Werly AoB 10kt later this afternoon.

Outlook...Pred VFR flight cats will continue through the period with high pressure dominating the forecast through the remainder of the work-week.

MARINE

Gales have diminished to SCA level winds as wrly CAA winds gust upwards of 25-30 kt early this morning. The gusty winds will cont to abate today as high pres builds in, though high seas will linger into tonight and Wed morning as seas only slowly subside. Some reinforcing swell may cont SCA seas through Wed evening esp on the ctrl and nrn waters (north of Ocracoke).

Outlook (Thu through Sat): High pres will dominate mid to late week, with generally benign boating conditions expected with winds in the 5-15 kt range and seas 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135>137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158.