textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled pattern expected through the weekend

2) Back to a more typical summertime pattern next week with high draped over the Southeast U.S.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Dry through the CWA early this morning with a front with little to no precip along it stalled to our north. Through the day, PWATs continue to climb above 2" for the entire area. A shortwave is forecast to pass west of ENC, but should provide enough of a glancing blow combined with the seabreeze and an inland trough to support scattered convection capable of very heavy rainfall rates and gusty winds, particularly along and west of hwy 17. The increased southerly flow should lead to a more progressive seabreeze which should also favor a more progressive nature to the convection. While this would limit the duration of heavy rainfall rates over any one location, the rates could be high enough to support minor hydro concerns, especially in urban areas. Of note, despite anomalous moisture and moderate instability, convective coverage on Saturday is less certain as the strongest forcing is expected to be outside of ENC. Despite moderate instability, weak shear and lower DCAPE should help to keep the severe thunderstorm risk at a minimum.

On Sunday, guidance continues the trend of slowing down the arrival of a cold front that will be dropping south out of Virginia. The front now looks to come through Sunday night. This points towards an extra day of moist and unstable conditions, with another round of scattered to perhaps numerous thunderstorms. Deep layer shear is forecast to slightly increase, but the overall severe thunderstorm risk continues to look low. With anomalous PWATs in place, heavy rainfall rates can be expected, with a continued risk of minor flooding impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A much drier airmass is forecast to build in across the Eastern U.S. early next week in the wake of Sunday night's cold front. Additionally, guidance have trended a bit cooler within the developing northeasterly flow regime, offering a reprieve from the higher humidity over this weekend. From mid-week on, guidance differ on whether it warms up or stays milder. Additionally, guidance suggests a decent coastal trough may develop along what is leftover from this weekend's front. With ridging building in, this trough may slide west beneath the ridge and bring a return to unsettled conditions, especially along the coast by Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Terminals experiencing fog and low stratus this morning will slowly give way to MVFR then VFR as the morning progresses. Included a vcts mention for all TAF sites as some showers and tstorms advance northward through the afternoon along and ahead of the sea breeze. Thunderstorms would be capable of heavy rainfall, lightning, and erratic winds. Severe potential is low, so expect the vast majority of thunderstorm wind gusts to remain at or below 40 mph.

Outlook (Sat night through Wed): There will continue to be a risk of TSRA through Sunday. Eventually, a cold front is forecast to move through Sunday night with drier and more stable air in tow, along with a reduced risk of TSRA. Drier conditions are expected to last into the middle of next week with a reduced risk of precip.

MARINE

Westerly winds of 5-10kt are common across most waters early this morning. A stationary front is expected to lift back north as a warm front by this morning. Southerly flow then prevails through the afternoon. Seas 1-3 feet are expected to persist through the day today. A risk of thunderstorms exists along coastal waters this morning, shifting to inland sounds and rivers this afternoon and evening.

Outlook: The risk of thunderstorms will continue until a cold front moves through Sunday evening. A northerly wind shift will occur along this front, with northeasterly flow then continuing into next week. The strongest northeasterly winds (10-20kt) are expected Monday and Tuesday, with a period of 25kt winds possible for waters. Confidence in >25kt winds is moderate. Seas will respond to the building winds, and are expected to peak at 4-8ft Tuesday into Wednesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.