textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precip chances increased today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather continues today and Sunday as stalled front across the region slowly dissipates.

2) Increasing mid-level ridging next week cuts down on rain chances but brings a return of uncomfortable heat.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A stalled front continues to bisect the area today. Showers and thunderstorms develop rather quickly on the front after daybreak this morning and has continued to develop along outflow boundaries, with the heaviest precip currently along the US 64 corridor. 12z/29 KMHX sounding has PW near record values for the day at 2.27" and have seen locally heavy rainfall where storms have trained to moved very slowly necessitating a couple of flood advisories. Shower and thunderstorms continue through afternoon but don't anticipated strong storms with limited shear and extensive cloud cover keeping MLCAPE around 1000J/Kg or less. Guidance has precip ending fairly quickly this evening with loss of daytime heating. The front will dissipate overnight with convection primarily along the sea breeze Sunday afternoon. Guidance showing a bit more instability tomorrow with MLCAPE peaking around 1500J/Kg but also shows descent coverage of mid and high clouds throughout the day as moist SW flow persists aloft, so maximum instability may not be realized keeping convection more isolated in nature.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm coverage wanes next week as upper ridging builds into the region from the west. Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm through the period along sea and sound breezes although activity will likely be short-lived. The main story will be the building heat with highs expected to climb into the 90s early next week and peaking in the mid to upper 90s as we move into the middle of the week. Heat headlines may be needed as early as Wednesday with forecast heat indices climbing above 105, especially along the coast and inland counties along and south of US70.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

A front remains stalled across rtes this afternoon with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions to most terminals. The showers expected to dissipate this evening but with abundant low level moisture in place, expect fog and stratus to develop after midnight bringing areas of sub-VFR conditions with VLIFR conditions possible across inland rtes. Stratus will likely linger through much of Sunday morning before we return to VFR conditions around mid day. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon, primarily along the sea breeze.

Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west next week resulting in more benign flying conditions. Iso shower or storm cannot be ruled out along area sea and sound breezes.

MARINE

A front stalled across the waters will slowly dissipate overnight into Sunday with light and variable winds mainly less than 10 kt and seas around 1-3 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to redevelop over the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras overnight into Sunday morning. Cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm or two capable of producing gusts in excess of 35 kt.

Outlook: Latter half of the weekend and early next week, front pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds in from the W allowing for more benign marine conditions and lower chances for precip.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.