textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All existing Cold Weather Advisories have been allowed to expire or were cancelled.

Existing Extreme Cold Warning for NOBX and Hatteras Island was cancelled and converted to a Cold Wx Advisory which goes through all the daylight hours.

Afternoon package will more than likely include new and/or extension Cold Weather headlines for tonight into Monday morning.

All active Gale Warnings have been dropped to Small Craft Advisories.

Freezing Spray Advisory has been cancelled.

Continue to track the potential for light snow on Friday for portions of Eastern NC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hazardous cold continues through the day today for portions of ENC. Wind chills will be coldest (5-15 degrees) over NOBX and Hatteras Island where Cold Weather ADvisory has been issued. The rest of Mainland ENC will be warming above 15deg AppT through the remainder of the day.

2) Tracking the potential for light snow on Friday for portions of Eastern NC.

MARINE...SCA conditions continue, with improving conditions this afternoon. Light freezing spray potential continues for the inland sounds and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet into this afternoon, but below advisory criteria.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An Arctic airmass has finally arrived into ENC, with the coldest and windiest conditions felt over NE NC and the OBX. Very cold conditions will continue today with highs only likely remaining below freezing for far NEern zones, around 40 SW, and mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Another very cold night is expected tonight with lows reaching the mid to upper teens. Though winds will be weaker, winds chills will likely fall into Cold Weather Advisory criteria across the eastern half of the forecast area, and will be very close inland.

Lows will be close to records this morning and tonight, see the CLIMATE section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak storm system poised to move into the Southeast from the southern Plains on Friday and has the potential to bring light snow to portions of ENC as cold air surges back into the region early Friday morning. Much uncertainty remains with this system as some forecast models still keep the area dry on Friday, but there is growing support amongst operational guidance and ensembles for some light snow. Surface temperatures will be critical as to whether or not we see snow accumulations or snow melting as it hits the ground.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. NW winds will continue to lessen this morning. Skies will be clear until this afternoon when clouds around 4-7 kft will build in from the west. MVFR chances remain LOW with this cloud deck. Winds will remain out of the NW at around 5-10 knots this afternoon, continuing to decrease through the evening. Around 00Z Monday mid/low clouds leave the region, with clear skies and light to calm winds expected overnight.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR through early next week as high pressure builds in. A series of weather systems will move across the area mid to late week that may bring periods of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

Winds continue to fall off through the day with gusts to 30 kts persisting the remainder of this morning across most of the marine area, with improving conditions expected this afternoon. Winds will become NNW 20-25 kts this afternoon for Nern areas, 15-20kt for the S, and then weaken substantially tonight. Winds will be NNW 10-15 kts tomorrow, but Small Craft seas (6 ft) will persist until at least early tomorrow afternoon.

Freezing Spray Advisories have been cancelled with the winds falling off quickly this morning, though light accumulation potential continues into this afternoon for the inland sounds and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet due to the combination of strong, but weakening winds, cold air and low to mid 30s water temperatures.

Outlook: Light winds continue most of Tuesday, but winds will then increase out of the SW Tuesday night ahead of a cold front to near Small Craft criteria for portions of the coastal waters. A cold front will move through the waters Wednesday with winds turning to the NW/N through the end of the work week with marginal Small Craft conditions possible.

CLIMATE

Record low temps for 2/8 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15/1947 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 11/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 14/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 15/1977 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 10/1977 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 15/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1970 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15/1970 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12/1934 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 10/1970 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 16/1995 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18/1995 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ131- 230. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ135-156. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ158. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ231.