textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Will reissued fire danger statememt for Sunday for areas that will get to 35% or lower Min RH.

Lowered temps a few degrees for mainland Crystal Coast area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increased fire danger will be reissued for Sunday for interior Eastern NC.

2) Risk of frost/freeze impacts tonight into early Sunday morning

3) Unsettled weather possible mid to late next week

Marine: Gale conditions to continue into this afternoon, with SCA conditions extending into Sunday. Generally benign conditions expected the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS has issued a burn ban statewide starting this evening. Will reissue Inc Fire Danger statement for Sunday for areas that get to less than 35% Min RH interior zones, despite the light winds, as fuels are very dry due to previous day's windy conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong high will build over the Carolinas tonight, with light winds, clear skies, and a very dry airmass supporting ideal radiational cooling conditions. This is a classic setup for temperatures falling lower than blended guidance, and lows tonight were trended towards the 10th-25th percentile of available guidance. This plus probabilistic guidance suggests a high likelihood of temperatures falling into the low 30s for many inland locations away from bodies of water. A few upper 20s cannot be ruled out in the typically colder locations. Based on this, the Freeze Watch will be upgraded to a Freeze Warning, with no change in area. Surrounding the warning area will be the potential for patchy frost impacts. A Frost Advisory was considered for a few counties closer to the coast, but the patchy nature expected suggests impacts won't be widespread enough in those areas for a headline.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A weak frontal boundary is forecast to approach ENC towards the middle of next week. This front will be running into notable ridging aloft, which makes its evolution less certain. Synoptically, this pattern tends to favor frontal boundaries weakening/losing support as they reach the Carolinas. Consequently, where models tend to differ is whether or not fronts in this pattern will stall over the area, or lift quickly back north as a warm front. The latest suite of guidance shows these typical differences, which makes the precipitation and temperature forecast less certain from mid-week on. Below is a quick breakdown of the sensible weather differences between the two possible solutions:

SCENARIO 1: In this scenario, the front briefly stalls over ENC in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, before quickly lifting back north on Friday. This scenario would focus the highest precipitation chances on Wednesday and Thursday, with a lowering chance of precip by the weekend. This scenario favors much warmer temperatures compared to SOLUTION 2 (70s/80s vs 40s/50s).

SCENARIO 2: In this scenario, the front stalls over ENC for an extended period of time, potentially well into next weekend. This scenario favors an extended period of overrunning precipitation from mid-week into next weekend. This scenario also favors cooler temperatures and a stronger cold air damming setup. Of note, this scenario suggests highs only in the 40s and 50s on Friday.

Blended guidance currently favors scenario 1. Meanwhile, machine learning guidance doesn't show a clear leaning one way or another. Stay tuned for updates as significant forecast changes are possible in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR SKC expected through the TAF pd. Winds become light to calm tonight, then veer to ene to e, eventually s by Sun afternoon, though remain only in the 5-10 kt range as high pres will reside just offshore.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Mostly VFR conditions are expected through mid week. The one potential caveat is occasional reductions to VIS possible during the overnight and early morning hours as a moist, southerly flow redevelops across the area supporting the potential for BR/MIFG. Towards Thu into late week, a weak frontal boundary may approach the area from the north, and this may introduce a chance of SHRA, TSRA, and sub- VFR conditions.

MARINE

Update as of 4 PM Sat...Have cancelled all remaining gale warnings as gradient winds cont to lessen, and gusty winds will slowly diminish from n to s tonight, though high seas will linger into Sunday on the coastal waters esp south of Oregon Inlet.

Moderate to strong northerly winds of 15-25kt are ongoing across all waters at this time, with some of the warmest waters experiencing sustained winds of 25-30kt. Frequent gusts of 25-35kt have been common (higher over the warmer waters). Winds will remain elevated for several more hours, then begin to lay down this evening as a strong area of high pressure moves in. Marine headlines remain in effect to cover the wind hazards through the remainder of the day and into this evening. For the coastal waters, 6ft+ seas are expected to last into Sunday morning which will eventually require the Gale Warnings to be transitioned to Small Craft Advisories once winds fall below 34kt.

Seas are currently peaking around 6-9ft (3-5ft for the areas south of Cape Lookout protected from northeasterly swell). Seas are forecast to gradually lay down to 4-6ft by Sunday morning, then finally drop below 6ft by Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: More benign boating conditions are expected to kick off next week thanks to high pressure offshore and light south to southwest flow developing around it. Eventually, the gradient is forecast to tighten by the middle of next week, which may provide the next opportunity for 25kt winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.