textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 2 PM Fri...

Removed any light snow accums over the wrn counties Sunday/Sunday evening, as now expecting mostly a cold rain for the duration of the event.

Lowered max temps Sunday as an all day rain with low clouds and nwrly breezes keep temps only in the low/mid 40s for most of us.

Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week with lows/winds chills in the teens to lower 20s.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 2 PM Fri...

1) Cold rain expected Sunday into early Sunday eve. Some inconsequential wet flakes may mix in across the west before ending Sunday evening but no accums or impacts.

2) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week with lows and wind chills in the teens Monday through Wednesday mornings. Wednesday morning the coldest with arctic high pressure overhead and lows in the teens all areas away from the beachfront.

DISCUSSION

As of 2 PM Fri...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A deep upper trough will dig down to the GOM, though thicknesses/hts are favoring mainly rain for ENC, albeit a cold and miserable rain, as any mixed precip or snow remains to the west and southwest of ENC through the duration of the event. As this trough pivots eastward Sunday, a weak surface low is expected to form along a boundary off the SE coast, and deepen as it moves offshore Sunday into Sunday night. The last remaining cold and snowy outlier GFS has caught up with the rest of the guidance (EC/UKMET/ICON) in forecasting mainly rain for the bulk of the event. It should be noted however, that even the ECM has a handful of it's 51 members that still bring accumulating snow to parts of ENC, though the chances of any accums based on the ensemble mean have trended down to 20-30%. Even so, with a warmer ground on top of the daytime highs in the 60s tomorrow, the chance of snow accumulating are quite slim. The much needed rain will start early Sun morning, then rapidly inc in coverage acrs ENC through the morning and into the afternoon as deep isentropic ascent in place. ENC remains on the cool side of the boundary so a cold widespread light to moderate rain event with amts in the 0.25-0.50" expected, which won't do much to the severe drought now in place across the region. Temps don't budge much and remain in the low/mid 40s for most of us all day.

By Sun evening, colder air finally begins to ooze into ENC as column cools to wet bulbs nearing 0C. However, a typical cold air chasing moisture scenario in place as rapid drying taking place as the column cools. Still can't rule out a few inconsequential wet flakes mixing in with the rain acrs nwrn zones, but certainly no impacts expected, esp on top of the warm temps that are in place tomorrow. Something that may bear watching is the development of black ice through the overnight into the Mon AM commute time however, if any remaining water remains on the roads and freezes as temps drop through the 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to well below normal conditions Monday through Wednesday. Low temps will reach the upper teens to low 20s, and when factoring in wind chills it will feel like the teens each morning. Tuesday morning looks to be the breeziest coupled with lows around 20, and best chance at reaching apparent T's around 15 or lower. Wednesday morning the coldest of the period as arctic high pres settles overhead, and excellent rad cooling all the way to the coast and lows well down into the teens.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 710 PM Fri...No sub-VFR conditions expected over TAF terminals over the next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds will ease tonight as high pressure continues to shift offshore tonight, but despite decoupling airmass will be far too dry to support any fog formation. The gradient aloft will begin to pinch, however, which could bring a risk for some LLWS to some terminals tonight, primarily PGV and ISO. Confidence is too low to include in TAFs this cycle.

A developing coastal trough could bring some increasing low-to- mid level clouds along portions of the OBX and southern coast tonight. Low chances (10-30%) for an isolated shower or two to clip the OBX Saturday morning. Guidance is in good agreement that any ceilings and showers will stay well east of TAF sites. SW winds will again increase to around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts across inland areas tomorrow, with increasing high clouds expected through the day as the aforementioned cold front pushes closer. Some lower cigs will likely bleed into the coastal plaina after 18z.

Outlook: A weak low pressure system and cold front couple to produce rain Sunday into Sunday evening, with the potential for some snowflakes to mix in briefly Sunday evening, especially for ISO/PGV. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with this system, but confidence is increasing that snow will not result in any impacts. Dry high pressure returns Monday/Tuesday, bringing a return to VFR conditions across all of ENC.

MARINE

As of 2 PM Fri...

Tonight through Saturday...SCA conditions will return to the Gulf waters overnight as inc swrly gradient brings good mixing to the warmer waters. Remaining nrn waters and sounds too cold to realize the stronger wind gusts and will remain in the 10-15 kt gusting 20 kt range tonight through Sat. A period of choppy 6 ft seas are likely tonight into Sat over the Gulf Stream waters.

Sunday through Sunday night...Winds turn nwrly but appear to remain sub SCA for the bulk of the marine areas. Some gusts to 25+ kt possible esp over the warmer waters south of Oregon Inlet with better mixing.

Monday through Wednesday...Arctic high pres builds over the waters with lighter winds of 5-15 kt expected and lowered seas of 2-4 ft or so.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156.