textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Thunderstorm threat has decreased for this afternoon/evening.

Rain chances have decreased a bit this weekend.

There is a chance of scattered severe thunderstorms on Monday along with periods of heavy rain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain exits this evening, with dry weather expected Friday.

2) Pops have decreased a bit for the weekend, as it appears the bulk of showers or storms will remain mostly to the south of Eastern NC.

3) A strong cold front will move through on Monday. Depending on the time of day it moves through, scattered severe thunderstorms and some heavy rain may accompany the frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers through this afternoon is keeping the thunderstorm threat at bay, and little to no chance of severe storms are expected through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, before the rain ends and pushes offshore.

Surface high pressure will build in tomorrow leading to a mild, mostly dry day with MaxTs in the low 70s (60s OBX). The high shifts offshore FRI night with seasonably cool overnight lows continuing in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Latest 07/12Z model suite has trended drier for the weekend, as several low amplitude and weakly sheared shortwaves sweep across the Mid Atlantic. GOM is cutoff from moisture, and thus precip looks to be much more spotty in nature. Have trended pops down to no higher than 30-50%, but these Pops have room to go even lower if the trend holds.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Decent agreement on next stronger shortwave and attendant cold front moving through the region on Monday. This system will have decently strong dynamics and potentially steeper lapse rates. Depending on diurnal timing, a severe thunderstorm threat is possible with this system, with the main threats appearing to be severe wind gusts and large hail, along with heavy downpours.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Cold front currently trekking across the carolinas with stratiform rain and embedded showers out ahead of it. This is producing brief periods of sub-VFR visibilities and more widespread lower ceilings this afternoon. As the afternoon progresses, ceilings will continue to lower from MVFR to IFR from the west with low level moisture pooling ahead of the low. Thunder chances have gone down, and should primarily be located offshore. However, with the greater forcing of the front this evening, an occasional thunderstorm can't completely be ruled out over land. Given the low probs, elected to not include TSRA mentions in the TAFs at this time. Widespread IFR conditions from the lowering ceilings this afternoon and evening will become more splotchy behind the front.

As high quickly builds in behind the front tonight, there is potential for winds to become calm inland. If this happens, ground fog could quickly develop inland given recent rainfall. Introduced MVFR visibilities tomorrow early morning for TAF sites, with worst case scenario being shallow IFR visibilities that quickly burns off after sunrise.

Tomorrow, winds should be light and variable with high overhead and some high clouds lingering. Sea breeze moves through in the afternoon introducing southerly winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

Outlook: Drier air moving in behind the front should support improving aviation conditions Friday. Looking ahead, the next opportunity for sub VFR conditions looks to be over the weekend and Monday, along with a risk of TSRA.

MARINE

Cold front pushing through the northern waters and sounds with brief gusts above 30 kt. A MWS has been issued for these brief gusting winds above SCA levels. Held on to SCA for ctrl/srn waters south of Oregon Inlet, as persistent SCA gusts will last more than several hours this evening with the gusty nrl winds. Seas build to 5-7ft coastal waters, 7-9ft offshore waters. Some gale force gusts possible for several hours on the offshore waters this evening. Showers and storms will end after around midnight as dry air filters in. Winds slowly diminish through the overnight, with seas subsiding by early Friday as high pres builds in.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): The improvement will be short lived as swrly SCA winds expected on the Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet later Sat through Sat night, with seas building up to 6+ ft. Winds and seas diminish on Sunday, with next fropa expected Monday with SCA conditions possible once again with this front.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156- 158.