textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All existing Gale Warnings have been converted to SCAs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy NE winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore have brought rough surf and localized ocean overwash concerns to portions of the Outer Banks into today.

2) Gradual warming trend expected through the period, but below normal temps will continue through FRI morning. Near normal temps FRI, continuing to warm to well above normal this weekend and into next week.

3) Fire weather conditions will continue to be monitored closely due to no appreciable rainfall, a dry airmass, and drying of fuels as temps warm into next week.

Marine...Though winds will continue to relax in the near term, SCA criteria winds continue through tonight with 6+ft seas likely lasting into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong NE winds have started to ease across the area with stout high pressure centered to the north and low pressure offshore passing near Bermuda. Winds have led to large waves which will continue through through the first half of today. Wave periods will increase as winds relax and swell becomes a little better organized, increasing wave energy overall, leading to wave runup concerns and the potential for localized ocean overwash at particularly vulnerable locations along the OBX, mainly at times of high tide (next high tide ~1300edt). High surf advisory continues from Duck to Cape Lookout through this morning. Despite the drop of the high surf advisory headline, spots along Hatteras and Ocracoke islands prone to overwash from strong swell remain at risk.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool high pressure builds down NECONUS before sinking S of the FA late tomorrow. This will keep a NEerly flow regime in place through the remainder of the work-week, continuing to advect a relatively cool maritime airmass over ENC through then. MinTs tonight in the low 40s inland where skies are expected to remain clear and winds will be lighter, low 50s OBX. Building low level thicknesses through the end of the work week allows warming temps despite the light NEerly flow regime, upper 50s and 60s today and mid 60s to mid 70s FRI. SUN afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the Mid-Atlantic coast, veering local winds more Eerly SUN and then becoming Serly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs are forecast to reach the 90deg mark at the end of the forecast period (next THU).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Forecast continues to be dry for land areas for the foreseeable future. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying of fuels through the long term. This will lead to the potential for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are forecast.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

All TAF sites are expected to remain VFR today with chances for fog early tomorrow morning. Winds will remain out of the NE and increase to 10-15 kt today. Scattered high clouds during the day will diminish tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds leading to the potential for fog early Friday morning.

Outlook: Fog will be possible Friday night/Saturday morning and Saturday night/Sunday morning due to higher dewpoints, clear skies, and light to calm winds.

MARINE

All existing gales have been dropped to SCAs. Winds continue to relax through today allowing inside SCAs to drop off while sea driven SCAs across coastal waters to persist into the weekend. Seas will remain elevated at 7-12 ft with periods increasing closer to 9-10 sec. SCA conditions will continue Thu with NE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-10 ft, lowest nearshore waters around Crystal Coast that are sheltered from the NEerly wind waves/swell direction, highest GStream.

Outlook: Winds become generally 10-15kt, still out of the N-NE THU night. 10kt or less, briefly becoming SEerly across all waters FRI as high pressure sinks south of regional waters. Another ridge shifts across NECONUS over the weekend once again leading NEerly winds SAT night and SUN, continuing to veer to become S and then SWerly early next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ196- 203>205. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.