textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation Disco Updated.

Previous Disco...Marine headlines have been updated for SW wind gusts to 25kt due to thermal gradient this afternoon and evening.

No heat headlines for today, but more than likely a Heat Advisory will be needed for FRI.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Risk of dangerous heat FRI.

2) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and thunderstorms for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will remain centered off the Mid- Atlantic coast allowing for steady SWerly flow outside of daily seabreezes. This will result in rather warm low-level thicknesses overspreading the Carolinas. While NBM guidance continues to be too warm with temps, records will still be in jeopardy on FRI (see climate section below for record high info). The caveats each day through this weekend will be the coverage of convection (see KEY MESSAGE 2 for additional details), and the potential for high clouds/convective debris. Both of those factors can have significant impacts on the temperature forecast each day. Regardless, persistent SWerly flow will allow dewpoints to steadily rise into the upper 60s to low 70s each day with the highest Td being found behind the daily seabreeze as it works its way inland. This will lead to higher humidity and increasing "feels like" temperatures even on the days with convection/clouds. There does look to be a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms today and FRI, mainly during the afternoon and evening each day. Today, MaxTs will top out in the upper 90s leading to AppTs in the 100-104deg range, which is just below local Heat Advisory criteria. Fri will start already relatively warm with early morning MinTs 10deg above Normal, mid to upper 70s, and low level thicknesses will continue to increase. Probabilistic guidance currently shows a 70-90% chance of exceeding 95 degrees for inland areas away from the coast. This combined with dewpoints in the low 70s suggests a widespread area of AppTs of ~105deg. This setup could lead to the first heat headlines of the summer season. The NWS' experimental Heat Risk guidance shows much of ENC in the major category, with a few areas nearing the extreme category.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Synoptic pattern is expected to shift towards something more favorable for convection across ENC this weekend with a weak front crossing the FA SAT and stalling to the S of the area into early next week when troughing aloft develops, opening moisture transport from the Gulf. However, this shouldn't be read as a high coverage of thunderstorms each day. In fact most of the day will be rain free, but as is typical in convective season in ENC, hit and miss storms are going to dot the area each afternoon through early evening. As long as the midlevel ridge holds on, very warm temps aloft will continue to cap a greater coverage of convection into FRI, and thus afternoon spotty rain chances are only 20%, so slightly below climo. Slightly higher chances of showers and tstorms FRI, mainly due to more instability from greater heating, but still 20-25%.

Friday night, stronger showers and thunderstorms developing to our W may reinvigorate over the area when the prefrontal trough interacts with the seabreeze as it works over the Coastal Plain. However, now that this timeframe is in the HiRes window, guidance has a lot of the strongest convection weakening before it reaches our inland tier of counties thanks to the midlevel ridge keeping a chokehold on shear, preventing the cells from remaining too organized overnight. Because of this, SPC has removed the Marginal Risk of severe storms for the bulk of the state and the FA, keeping us in General Thunder. Have strayed away from the NBM 6hrly PoPs that have advertised LKLY with some of the HiRes CAMs 3hrly PoPs which keeps the coastal plain area under 40-50% PoPs for the first half of the night with lower PoPs (20-40%) over the coast in the early morning hours SAT as momentum carries the weakening showers and storms offshore.

Temps aloft "cool" slightly as heights aloft fall ahead of the front and the stout mid level ridge begins to weaken, and this may support at least a risk of higher coverage seabreeze convection on SAT, particularly along the Crystal Coast seabreeze where LKLY PoPs are now mentioned.

Early next week, higher than climo shower and storm chances are in the forecast with the greater moisture content through the column leading to PWATs in excess of 2in. Additionally, deep layer shear of around 30-35kt along the front and low pressure system may support a modest increase in the potential for organized convection, some of which could be on the strong side. High pressure returns late next week when high pressure builds in behind a mid-week front.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR flight cats are forecast through the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the SW at around 10-15 kt with scattered high clouds and diurnal cu. SChc of isolated pop up showers in the afternoon and early evening, but coverage will be limited with little consensus among model suite for location, so no explicit mention of precip in TAFs.

Outlook: Risk of showers/storms is quite low Thu and Fri, but not 0. Better chance for afternoon/evening showers/storms this weekend when a front crosses the region SAT, stalling to the S and into early next week, with tempo reductions in vsby and/or cigs accompanying the heavier showers and at least a chance of MVFR CIGs directly along the front as it crosses the area early SAT.

MARINE

Rinse and repeat forecast. Current obs showing light winds over far inland rivers increasing to 15-20G25kt over larger Sounds and Coastal Waters. Thermal gradient will develop again this afternoon allowing winds to increase across far Eern Pamlico Sound and central coastal waters. Seas are generally 2-4 ft with the weakening 1-2ft swell out of the E @ 8sec, with the 2-3ft wind waves out of the SW on top. Don't expect much change over the next 24 hours with steady SW winds forecast across our area waters at 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25kt this afternoon into tonight.

Outlook (FRI through MON): A typical summertime regime, with swrly gradient flow maxing out between 21Z and 06Z each evening leading to marginal 25+ kt winds gusts in the favored areas mentioned above. Seas of 2-4ft will be common. The risk of thunderstorms will increase late- week into early next week, with best chances in the late afternoon to evening hours. A front will cross Sat and stall to the S. Low pressure will develop along the boundary and lift back Nward across the Carolinas early next week.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 06/12 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/2016 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 89/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 98/1914 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 92/1952 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 95/1986 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 95/2016 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.