textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds in today, and shifts offshore tonight. A cold front will then cross through the area late Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds offshore Christmas day and will remain in place through late week. Another frontal system will move through the region this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 2 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Below normal conditions continue with high pressure over the region

CAA remains ongoing early this morning with very dry air being advected into the region. However, air temps have been slow to cool and remain in the 40s in most spots. Still expect temps to drop to below freezing over the next couple of hours and even briefly dip into the upper 20s now that skies have mostly cleared and winds are decoupling in sheltered spots.

High pressure will build in from the northwest today, settling overhead by early this evening. Persistent NNE/NE winds and below normal thicknesses will result in highs only reaching the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon despite the mostly sunny skies.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/

As of 2 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Weak cold front will cross through the area Tuesday bringing a chance for light rain, but little accumulation

With high pressure right overhead this evening, clear skies, and nearly calm winds, good radiational cooling conditions are expected to develop with temps quickly cooling into the 30s. As high pressure shifts offshore overnight ahead of a cold front increasing high clouds from this system will help curb cooling, and keep temps mostly in the 30s overnight. Sheltered locations inland will likely drop down to around freezing, especially if there are any breaks in the high clouds.

Scattered areas of light rain will move into northern NC Tuesday morning as a cold front slides south into the Carolinas. Limited moisture with this front will result in only very light or trace amounts of rain, with coverage looking to be fairly scattered with only a 25-50% chance, highest across NE NC. SW winds will rapidly develop Tuesday morning, advecting in warmer temperatures, and resulting in highs in the upper 50s to low 60s despite the widespread cloudiness.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 2 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Mostly dry conditions expected into this weekend with only some minor chances for rain this weekend

- Above normal conditions expected through this weekend, with highs in the 60s to near 70 Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

Behind a weak cold front Tuesday night a stronger surface high will develop across the Gulf Coast Christmas Eve through this weekend, which will push highs up well into the 60s, and possibly into the 70s. The next chance of rain looks to hold off until this weekend, but precip will be close to ENC through this period with the jet stream just to our north. We may trend towards small chances for rain at times, but a soaking/wetting rain remain unlikely until maybe this weekend when a stronger front pushes into the region.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1215 AM Monday...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Broken mid to high clouds will dissipate later tonight with mostly clear skies persisting until tomorrow evening when a few mid to high clouds will move back in. Winds are light to calm tonight, becoming NE 5-10 knots Monday and light to calm again Monday night.

Outlook: Another mainly dry front with just some trivial sprinkles or light showers on Tuesday, though VFR will persist. Quiet conditions cont through the upcoming week.

MARINE

As of 2 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Small craft conditions continue this morning and linger through the afternoon across the coastal waters

- Another period of Small Craft conditions will quickly develop Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front

Winds have increased to 20-25 kts out the N early this morning with gusts to 30-35 kts. Winds will peak over before sunrise and then subside through the rest of the morning, becoming NE 10-20 kts this afternoon. Winds will continue to weaken tonight and veer from the NE to SW overnight. Ahead of a cold front Tuesday morning, winds will rapidly increase, especially over the warmer Atlantic/Gulf Stream waters, and Small Craft conditions will return here before mid morning with winds SW 20-30 kts with gusts to 35 kts. SCAs have been issued for these marine zones, and may need to be expanded eventually.

Seas will be 5-8 ft through most of the morning, and then subside slowly this afternoon/evening. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft tonight and early tomorrow morning, but will quickly increase to 5-7 ft by early tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Improving conditions expected Christmas Eve, with decent boating conditions persisting through Christmas Day. Increasing winds Friday may bring another period of Small Craft conditions to the waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ131- 137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156- 158.