textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move off the coast early today with low pressure developing along it, bringing a wintry mix to portions of the area. High pressure will build back over the area mid week. Another low and cold front move in late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 230 AM Monday...

Key messages...

- Wintry mix develops this afternoon across northwest counties.

Light mixing has allowed visibilities to improve early this morning and have cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory.

A challenging forecast continues through the short term as a shortwave trough swings through the Southeast states and cyclogenesis occurs off the Carolina Coast. A combination of lowering thicknesses through the day, along with column cooling through inc lift/uvv and precip loading will lead to rain changing to a ra/sn mix, possibly mostly snow for our nwrn counties. Model differences persist with similar biases as previously discussed, (NAM/FV3/GFS) indicating a colder column and more rapid changeover to snow, while the Euro, AIFS, CMC, HRRR are warmer aloft and retain snow the far northwest.

Latest guidance has trended downward slightly with snowfall amounts, although probabilities for 1" of snow continue around ~40-60% along the Hwy 64 corridor from western Washington Co to northern Pitt Co, including nearly all of Martin Co, and will keep the Winter Wx Advisory for these counties. Probabilities drop to less than 30% south of the Hwy 264 corridor, which makes the most sense, as temps will be well above freezing through the day, making it difficult for snow to accumulate. The NAM/GFS remain much too bullish on snow amounts given the warmer initial conditions. By the time temps fall to freezing and below Mon evening, snow should be tapering off quickly from w to e. For the eastern and southern counties, predominantly rain is fcst.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/

As of 3 AM Monday...

Key messages...

- Wintry mix tapers off through the evening. Snowfall totals up to 1" northwest counties with little to no accumulations expected elsewhere.

- Black ice formation tonight to Tue AM as temperatures fall into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

Precipitation will taper off from W to E throughout the evening with CAA continuing to bring falling temps overnight. Could see some light snow farther east as the precip is ending but not expecting much if any accumulation. Biggest impacts from the snow and precipitation will be the development of black ice, as temperatures fall through the 20s during the overnight period. Any rain or snow that falls during the day will freeze up overnight, esp on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses, leading to hazardous conditions for the Tue morning commute.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 3 AM Monday...

Key messages...

- Dry and seasonably cold mid week.

- Another system with limited moisture will push through late week with much much colder temps next weekend.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Dry conditions expected as high pressure builds back in at the surface. Highs in the 40s Tue warming back into the 50s to near 60 Wed as winds become SW. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed morning.

Thursday through Saturday...A couple of northern stream shortwaves push across the area during the latter half of the week but moisture remains quite limited and guidance continues to trend downward with PoPs. At this time, ptype looks to remain all liquid. Much colder air expected behind the front for next weekend with highs back into the 40s and lows in the 20s, and possibly teens inland on Sunday night.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 7 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- Brief period of MVFR/VFR conditions expected this morning

- IFR conditions will return late this morning/early this afternoon as rain/snow moves into the area

Conditions have begun to improve across ENC early Monday morning as winds increase ahead of an approaching frontal system/developing low pressure system. With increasing winds, fog/low stratus have mixed out along the southern coast, with improvement to VFR conditions noted at EWN/OAJ. Meanwhile, the coastal plain (including PGV/ISO) is hanging onto lingering LIFR conditions with fog and low stratus noted. Expectation is for conditions to improve across the coastal plain over the next hour or so to MVFR/VFR.

Rain is then forecast to track into the area starting late morning into the early afternoon from west to east, bringing worsening conditions to TAF sites once more. A changeover to a mix of rain and snow and then all snow is forecast late afternoon/early evening with the greatest risk for this to occur being across PGV/ISO and the northwestern portions of the forecast area. There remains potential for a more widespread changeover to snow (or rain/snow mix) across additional terminals as far south as OAJ/EWN but have opted to keep mention of -SNRA within a PROB30 group for these terminals. Northerly winds increase today, peaking in the afternoon hours with gusts to around 20 kts expected, before decreasing overnight. IFR conditions are likely to continue at least into the evening hours.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions may persist into Tuesday morning before VFR conditions return through at least midweek.

MARINE

As of 3 AM Monday...

Key Messages

- Strong winds and dangerous seas expected through tonight.

- Small Craft Advisory to low end Gales possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Through Tue...A cold front passes through early today with an area of low pressure developing along it across the offshore waters bringing strong north to northeast winds through tonight. Continue the Gale warning for all waters except the inland rivers with strong SCA conditions are expected. Seas build up to 7-11 ft across the northern and central waters and 5-9 ft south. Wind diminish fairly quickly Tuesday with seas slowly subsiding through Tuesday night.

Wed...The break in strong winds and high seas is short-lived, as a swrly gradient inc later Wed through Wed night, with speeds of 15-25 kt expected, and 25-35 kt over the warm Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet. Seas build back up to 6-10 ft south of Oregon Inlet.

Thu through Fri...Winds and seas relax as high pres builds back into the region, with NW winds generally 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for NCZ029-044-045. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for AMZ135-150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.