textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Aviation Disco Updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather pattern continues through Saturday bringing periods of locally heavy rainfall across ENC. Today will see increased potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

2) Heat increases next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend as an upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS and a weakening cold front approaches from the northwest.

The threat for severe storms increases today as the upper trough axis pushes across the area bringing increasing jet dynamics with the attendant weakening cold front pushing into the region. Instability continues to be forecast to be a bit higher tomorrow with MLCAPES forecast to peak around 2000-2500 J/Kg with similar shear in place. Pwat values will continue to be north of 2" bringing the threat for wet microbursts producing damaging wind gusts and SPC has parts in the Mid-Atlantic outlooked in marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms. Greater upper level support and convergence along the sfc front and other lingering boundaries may also lead to locally heavy rainfall bringing an increased risk for flash flooding and WPC has a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the region.

Continued unsettled on Saturday but the upper trough begins to lift north of the area with height rises aloft and weakening dynamics throughout the day bringing a decreasing threat for severe thunderstorms but there remains a marginal risk (1 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper ridging builds into the region from the west for the early to mid portion of next week bringing lower chances for showers and thunderstorms, though near climo chances for storms along the sea breeze will persist through peak heating each day. The main story will be the building heat with highs expected to climb into the 90s early next week and peaking in the mid 90s as we move into the middle of the week with heat headlines possible WED and THU with MaxAppT in the range of 105-115deg possible.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

Predominant VFR conditions through first half of tonight but scattered showers and thunderstorms could bring periods of sub- VFR conditions across terminals through the TAF period (best chances Friday afternoon and evening). The probs for fog and stratus are fairly low given the current pattern but the moist environment is favorable for lower CIGs and some reduction in VIS in the early morning hours. Have included MVFR conditions and targeted IFR tempo groups as a precaution as likelihood is low. But, should clearing occur as some model solutions show in the middle of the night, probs of fog/stratus may increase some. 06Z TAFs continues prevailing VCTS for all terminals for this afternoon with 12Z update likely to include some more detail. Some storms this afternoon and evening could be on the stronger side, with periods of heavy rain being the most likely, but some strong gusts will be possible.

Outlook: A second, stronger front will approach from the west bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms into Sat. This will bring elevated chances at sub- VFR conditions. High pressure builds in from the west on Sun and beyond resulting in more benign flying conditions.

MARINE

Currently seeing S to Swrly winds 5-15kt inside, 10-15g~20kt outside with seas around 3-4 ft. An active weather pattern will remain in place into the weekend with thunderstorms bringing periods of locally stronger winds and higher seas.

Outlook: Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Sat with locally enhanced winds and seas possible within the strongest storms. Latter half of the weekend and early next week, front pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds in from the W allowing for more benign marine conditions and lower chances for precip.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.