textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Gale Warning for the central and Sern coastal waters have been extended out through 0400edt due to obs still showing Gale force gusts.

High Surf Advisory continues from Duck to Cape Lookout for dangerous surf and potential for localized ocean overwash.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy NE winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore will continue to bring rough surf and localized ocean overwash concerns to portions of the Outer Banks into Thu.

2) Gradual warming trend expected in the wake of yesterday's front. Below normal temps will continue through FRI morning. Near normal temps FRI, but continuing to warm to well above normal this weekend and into next week.

3) Fire weather conditions will continue to be monitored closely due to no appreciable rainfall, a dry airmass, and drying of fuels as temps warm into next week.

Marine...Mix of gales and small craft advisory conditions over all area waters through tonight. Though winds begin to relax this evening, sea driven SCAs to follow the gales for coastal waters, likely lasting into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong NE winds continue across the area with strong high pressure to the north and low pressure offshore. Winds have led to large waves which will continue through tonight and early Thu. While winds will gradually ease overnight, wave periods will increase, leading to wave runup concerns and the potential for localized ocean overwash at particularly vulnerable locations along the OBX, mainly at times of high tide (around 1 AM tonight). High surf advisory continues from Duck to Cape Lookout.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool high pressure builds down NECONUS before sinking S of the FA FRI. This will keep a NEerly flow regime in place through the remainder of the work-week, continuing to advect a relatively cool maritime airmass over ENC through then. MinTs tonight in the upper 30s inland where skies are expected to remain clear and winds will be lighter, and around mid 40s Inner Banks where stratus advecting onshore and slightly stronger winds will dampen cooling. Some potential for frost development overnight and tomorrow morning inland, especially should winds decouple, though think winds should stay mixed enough to limit frost potential. Building low level thicknesses through the end of the work week allows warming temps despite the light NEerly flow regime, upper 50s and 60s THU and mid 60s to mid 70s FRI. Sun afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the Mid-Atlantic coast, veering local winds more Eerly SUN and then becoming Serly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs approaching 90 inland at the end of the forecast period (next WED).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Further offshore solutions of a weaker low traveling along yesterday's front and a lower likelihood of a coastal trough developing has continued to trend the late- week forecast drier. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying of fuels through the long term. This will lead to the potential for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are forecast.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Northeasterly winds are expected to persist over the next 24 hours across ENC. These winds may be gusty at times, but in general the risk of gusty winds is expected to continue to decrease.

Low-level moisture trapped within the northeasterly flow has supported periods of MVFR CIGs across the Outer Banks for much of the day today. As the low-level flow becomes easterly later this evening, guidance suggests those low CIGs may begin to advect westward towards the remainder of ENC. Not all guidance shows this, though, which leads to lowered confidence in whether or not sub-VFR CIGs will develop tonight. For now, the TAFs will show VFR conditions tonight, but with a SCT025 layer to show when MVFR CIGs may develop. Any low clouds that manage to advect inland tonight should scour out to a FEW/SCT cumulus layer tomorrow morning.

Outlook: A risk of sub-VFR conditions may once again develop Thursday night, this time due to BR/FG. European ensemble (ENS) has a 10-20% chance of seeing impactful fog Saturday morning with clear skies and light to calm winds forecast after dewpoints rise late Friday.

MARINE

Marine observations over the warmer waters from Oregon Inlet through our Sern waters continue to show gale-force gusts ongoing at this time, which is not being handled well by model guidance. While winds are still expected to gradually lay down below gale- force tonight, it appears it will take a bit longer than previously forecast. In light of this, the Gale Warnings for the above- mentioned coastal waters has been extended out through 0400edt.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt across the nearshore waters and 20-30 kt gusting 30-40 kt across the outer waters, with seas 7-12 ft. Strong high pressure to the north will continue to ridge into the Carolinas keeping a tight gradient across the area. Mix of small craft and gale force conditions continue across the waters. Winds will gradually ease tonight and into Thu, 15-25 kt. This will bring an end to the gales across the Pamlico Sound and central waters by this evening, though gales will likely persist across our Sern waters into the first part of tonight. SCAs across all other waters will also remain in place as well through this evening and tonight. Seas will remain elevated at 7-12 ft with periods increasing closer to 9-10 sec. SCA conditions will continue Thu with NE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-10 ft.

Outlook: 6+ ft seas will remain in place across our coastal waters through at least Saturday. Winds become generally 10-15kt, still out of the N-NE THU night. 10kt or less, briefly becoming SEerly across all waters FRI as high pressure sinks south of regional waters. Another ridge shifts across NECONUS over the weekend once again leading NEerly winds SAT night and SUN, continuing to veer to become S and then SWerly early next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ196-203>205. Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ196-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-156-158.