textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A cold front is pushing across the area and high pressure will briefly build in from the north today. A strong low pressure system will move across the Carolina coast Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- A cold front will move offshore by sunrise, continuing scattered light showers across the area

- Cooler temps today with highs around 10 degrees below normal

A cold front is approaching ENC and light showers are ongoing across much of the CWA. Winds have decoupled ahead of the front, and this has allowed patchy fog to develop across central and southern zones. Light rain will continue over the next few hours and dissipate from west to east with the front expected to push offshore by sunrise. Lows will bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and mid 40s to low 50s along the coast. Winds will be breezy out of the north today and much cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front as high pressure builds in from the north, keeping highs about 15-20 degrees cooler today compared to yesterday. Northwest zones will max out in the upper 40s with the rest of the area in the low 50s. Cloud cover will dissipate behind the front but will build back in later this after/evening as a low to our south moves north.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- Increasing rain chances as a low lifts towards the Carolinas

A broad upper trough will dig across the Mississippi River Valley tonight and a deepening surface low off the southeast coast will move north towards the Carolinas. PoPs will increase from south to north after midnight as the low approaches. A few rumbles of thunder are possible early tomorrow morning across Onslow and Carteret Counties (15-25%), but chances will be greater over the southern coastal waters (25-35%). Rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times across these areas, especially within thunderstorms. Lows will range from the upper 30s across northwestern zones to mid 40s to low 50s along the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages

- A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday bringing the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal flooding

- High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

- Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region late in the week.

The aforementioned low will quickly lift along the Carolina coast Tuesday morning and push out to sea by the afternoon/early evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with this system, with QPF ranging from 1.5" inland to 2"+ along the coast. Given that the much of the CWA remains in a moderate drought, this rain is much needed, and these antecedent conditions will lessen the flood threat. However, minor nuisance flooding remains a possibility where higher rain rates occur.

There's potential for some supercells to develop, especially along the coast and across the coastal waters where instability, deep layer shear, and helicity will be greatest. The window for severe activity could last from early Tuesday morning through the afternoon with the potential for damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado and/or waterspout.

Coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, will be closely monitored for potential oceanside and soundside flooding impacts due to stronger winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more information.

PoPs will quickly drop off as the low pulls away from the coast, leaving the area dry Tuesday night as high pressure builds back in and strong CAA develops. Temps will then tank, ranging from the upper 20s across the coastal plain to low 40s along the Outer Banks. High pressure will keep things cool and dry through Thursday with highs rebounding to the mid 50s.

PoPs will increase on Friday as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Plains and a low lifts along the southeast coast. With inland temps near freezing Friday morning, there's potential for a brief window of a rain/snow mix.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1230 AM...Light rain ongoing ahead of a cold front currently located across the coastal plain. This cold front will push offshore by 10Z, with drier northerly winds ushering in behind it. Currently, ahead and along the front we have generally MVFR ceilings with pockets of VFR and IFR sprinkled in. Expecting MVFR conditions to continue along and ahead of the front over the next couple hours, with drops to IFR possible east of hwy 17 where there is better lower level moisture to bring ceilings lower. Ahead of the front, we are also seeing fog quickly develop as a brief period of calm winds ahead of the front help reduce visibilities in Carteret, Craven, Jones, and Onslow counties. While unlikely, as the front moves through there could be a 1-2 hour period of light to calm winds before the cold air advection moves in, allowing for a brief period of fog to form once the rain ends. Low confidence has prevented me from going lower than 6SM BR in the TAFs, but this will be worth monitoring. Ceilings and visibilities rapidly raise as dry air filters into ENC before sunrise with ENC forecast to be back to VFR conditions between 8-12z.

This afternoon, skies remain VFR with gusty northerly winds near 20 knots as high pressure builds in. We then pivot to deteriorating conditions Tuesday morning as a low pressure system approaches the region, dropping ceilings to MVFR/IFR from south to north.

Outlook: Widespread sub- VFR likely Tuesday as a low pressure system is forecast to lift along the coast. High pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and Thursday with pred VFR conditions expected. Another system Friday can bring drops to sub-VFR again.

MARINE

As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions expected through this afternoon

- Gale Watch in effect for portions of the coastal waters for Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system that will track along the coast

- Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into Wednesday

Latest obs show NW winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds will veer to the north over the next couple of hours as a cold front passes the area and gusts will increase to 25-30 kt. Winds will continue to veer to the NE by this afternoon and decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Seas are currently 2-3 ft, will build to 4-6 ft by early this afteroon, and subside to 3-5 ft by this evening. SCAs are in effect for all waters save for the inland rivers, but a Marine Weather Statement is in effect for the Neuse River for the possibility of 25-30 kt gusts at the mouth through this morning. Tonight, a low will move up the southeast coast and winds will veer to the SE and increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt by sunrise (highest gusts expected south of Cape Hatteras). Seas will respond by building back to 5-6 ft across this same area.

Outlook: Conditions will continue to deteriorate Tuesday morning as the low moves along the coast. Gales are expected across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with winds starting as SEerly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt and becoming SWerly by the afternoon and increasing to 25-35 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt. Seas will respond by building to 7-13 ft by the afternoon. Strong thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts will be possible Tuesday morning, especially across the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras.

High pressure builds in Wednesday and conditions will improve through the day. The next chance for SCA conditions will be Saturday as another low is forecast to move up the coast.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

As of 7 PM Sun...A strong low pressure system moving through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening's and early Wednesday morning's high tides. The forecast magnitude and direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity are still unclear at this time. Though there is potential for localized ocean overwash on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, esp around high tide, which could impact portions of NC-12 Tue.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158. Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for AMZ152-154. Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for AMZ156-158.