textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Above average uncertainty in the development of a coastal low offshore this weekend as a frontal system pushes through the area late Friday night into early Saturday. Gale Watch is in effect from Saturday Morning through late Saturday night for most of the coastal waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry with record heat possible through Friday.

2) Cold front moves through early Saturday, forming a low pressure system offshore.

3) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds.

Marine: Gale Watch in effect along with prolonged large seas this weekend into next week as offshore front stalls with long period fetch of northeasterly swell and increasing chances of low pressure development off the southeast coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week with sunny skies. Building hts as upper ridge strengthens sends temps soaring through the 80s and nearing 90 for some interior locales (record high climate section below). A dry back door front is taking its time moving into nrn parts of ENC later today keeping most locations in the warm sector today with some increasing cloud cover and slightly cooler temps for extreme northern locales. The front quickly retreats north by early Friday with another surge of swrly flow ahead of much stronger front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Uncertainty remains above average in regards to a coastal low forming along the cold front which will pass through the area late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While there are still three main camps as far as solutions go, confidence is trending up that a coastal low will form. The location and strength of that low remains in some question.

Once the low forms out over the gulf stream there are three main steering paths that models are hinting at right now. The most likely scenario at this time is that the low forms and stays over the gulf stream picking up strengths as it does so but remains in a fairly constant longitudinal range offshore. Most EPS ensemble members and some deterministic models such as the ICON, CMC and others fall into this camp but there is still considerable spread in the location and intensity details.

Other members along with the EC-AIFS model develop the low right along the coast and hold it there for a much more prolonged event. This scenario would likely have the highest impacts to coastal areas of eastern NC with several days of strong winds and high waves.

Finally, the GFS and its ensemble members remain an outlier in either not developing a low at all or developing it much later and much further east than any of the other scenarios. This remains the least likely to occur at this time.

Regardless of which scenario plays out, there is HIGH confidence of marine impacts, and potential for waves 7+ ft reaching portions of the OBX. Winds advisory potential exists for the OBX zones, as well as perhaps portions of the adjacent coastal mainland. Will have to watch for minor coastal flood concerns for srn portions of Pamlico Sound and the coastal areas of the OBX with the sustained NE flow.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Coolest and driest airmass for the fall season thus far builds in behind the front Sat night and beyond with temps taking a nosedive with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s (inland) and 50s (beaches). However, depending how offshore the front makes it, could keep things a bit milder than fcst if some clouds advect in from offshore keeping the nighttime mins a bit warmer than advertised.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions continue at all locations this afternoon with light and variable winds and clear skies. Expect benign conditions to continue through much of the day. With a backdoor cool front draped across the northeastern portions of the area, there is some uncertainty with how far south the front will advance this evening. With it there is the chance for sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities with KPGV the most likely to see impacts from that. For now have 3SM in the TAFs with just a mention of 6SM at other sites except for KMRH. On Friday, conditions will return to VFR and by afternoon expect wind gust to pick up to around 15-20 kts out of the southwest.

Outlook (Sat through Mon): Strong and slow moving cold front brings widespread light rain on Sat, with sub VFR likely behind the front later Sat with frontal inversion developing, along with gusty north winds through the day Sat. Clearing skies Sat night with winds tapering off as high pres attempts to build in for the latter half of the weekend into next week.

MARINE

Latest obs show continuing SW winds 5-10 knots gusting 15-20 kts at most locales with seas mainly 2-3 ft. Backdoor front has made it through the Albemarle and into the Croatan/Roanoke Sounds. To the north of the bndry, nerly breezes expected though remaining light, and to the south, generally swrly to srly continued light flow.

Outlook (Fri through Mon): A strong cold front has trended slower, now not expected to clear the waters until Sat, at which point it is likely to form a low pressure system offshore. Gale Watch is in effect beginning 12z Saturday for all waters except the southern rivers, although SCAs will be likely in these areas as well. Probabilities indicate high confidence in Gale Force Winds but likely not achieving storm force. Seas build quickly as well, with seas of 6-10+ ft appearing more likely through the weekend. Duration of gale force gusts is uncertain at this point and will likely bounce above and below the threshold well into next week, and there is potential for 6+ seas to linger as well.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 10/15 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 89/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 86/1990 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 89/1985 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 90/1975 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 10/16 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/1917 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-180-182-184-186-188-230- 231.