textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued a Small Craft Advisory for waters around NOBX. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures Tuesday through Saturday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent ridging aloft combined with a warm, southwest flow pattern and warm to anomalously warm low-level thicknesses is expected to support above to well above normal temperatures for the entire week. Some locations may reach, or exceed, record highs (please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information). Based on the latest guidance, the warmest days are expected to be Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. On those days, highs are expected to top out in the 90s inland, and 70s to near 80 along the coast. For reference, mid-April highs typically average out to be in the upper 60s along the coast and mid 70s inland. Based on the latest forecast, inland highs should solidly reach 10-20 degrees above normal.

The forecast is currently higher than MOS guidance, as we are operating under the belief that an anomalous event like this (EFI values approaching 1.00 and SoT near 1) isn't properly represented by MOS guidance. The forecast is also currently higher than the deterministic NBM, as the raw NBM MaxTs are running at the 10-25 percentile.

Summertime warmth with spring humidity means it won't feel as hot as it could with summertime humidity. Even so, the heat risk is forecast to reach moderate impact levels this week. This means impacts will be most prevalent for those without adequate cooling or hydration. A break in the warmth looks to be on the horizon as a cold front is now forecast to move through the area on Sunday, with cooler air arriving early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through Saturday. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this is above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice. Late in the weekend, guidance is showing a strong signal for a cold front passage (Sunday into Monday). This front carries a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Pred VFR expected through the TAF period with high pressure in place. The NBM probs for fog or stratus late tonight into Tuesday morning remains low, around 10 percent or less. However, if the winds do decouple, cannot rule out shallow fog development late tonight, similar to last night. SW winds will prevail through the TAF Period with gusts around 15-20 kt late morning and afternoon hours.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings.

MARINE

A regime more typical of summer is expected across area waters this week. Within this flow, there will be a diurnal max in winds each afternoon and evening thanks to a strengthening thermal gradient. During this time, occasional gusts to 25kt will be possible, especially for waters near NOBX. A short fused small craft advisory has been issued until 3Z Tue for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet and the Croatan/Roanoke Sounds as obs this afternoon have started gusting to the low/mid 20 knot range, with further intensification expected into the evening. A similar scenario is possible each day this week, with brief small craft conditions in the vicinity of NOBX.

Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through much of the upcoming week for the ENC coastal waters.

Outlook: The southwest flow pattern is expected to last into Saturday. On Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move through with a wind shift and the potential for scattered thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.