textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Weakened winds through rest of evening and into tonight.

Cancelled all remaining inland SCAs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hazardous cold continues tonight which has prompted the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory for portions of ENC.

2) Tracking the potential for light snow on Friday for portions of Eastern NC.

MARINE...SCA conditions continue, with conditions improving into early-week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An Arctic airmass has finally arrived into ENC, with the coldest and windiest conditions felt over NE NC and the OBX. Cold conditions will continue this evening into MON morning with MinTs in the mid to upper teens for most, low 20s for Sern zones and OBX. Though winds will be weaker than previous days/nights, winds chills will still fall into ColdWx Advisory criteria for portions of the FA. Wind chills will be coldest (6-10 degrees) over NOBX, Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. NEern mainland zones will see Min Wind Chill temps around 10-14deg in the early morning hours. Cold Weather Advisory has been issued including the Outer Banks from Duck south through Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and mainland Dare and Hyde Cos, Tyrrell and Washington Cos. The rest of Mainland ENC will be in the 15-20deg AppT range.

Lows will approach, but are currently forecast to remain above records tonight, see the CLIMATE section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak storm system is poised to move into the Southeast from the southern Plains on Friday and has the potential to bring light snow to portions of ENC as cold air surges back into the region early Friday morning. Much uncertainty remains with this system as some forecast models still keep the area dry on Friday, but there is growing support amongst operational guidance and ensembles for some light snow. Surface temperatures will be critical as to whether or not we see snow accumulations or snow melting as it hits the ground.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will push south of the terminals by late this evening, with skies becoming mostly clear tonight and Monday with light winds.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR through early week as high pressure builds in. A series of weather systems will move across the area mid to late week that may bring the potential for periods of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

Winds continue to fall off through the day with gusts to 20-25kt inside, 25-30 kts outside, with improving conditions expected through the near term period. Winds will become NNW 20-25 kts this evening for Nern areas, 15-20kt for the S, and then weaken substantially tonight. Winds will be NNW 10-15 kts tomorrow, but Small Craft seas (=< 6 ft) will persist until at least early tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure slides offshore from N to S late MON into TUE, turning light winds more SWerly. Winds will then increase out of the SW Tuesday night ahead of a cold front to near Small Craft criteria for portions of the coastal waters. A cold front will move through the waters Wednesday with winds turning to the NW/N through the end of the work week with marginal Small Craft conditions possible. A low pressure system is poised to work from SW to NE across the southeast US the latter half of this weekend.

CLIMATE

Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1970 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15/1970 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12/1934 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 10/1970 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 16/1995 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18/1995 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ045>047-081-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ156.