textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure system will develop and travel along the boundary stalled offshore to the south, impacting the Carolinas this morning into Saturday. The front will remain stalled off the southern NC coast behind this system leading to unsettled weather through early next week at times, especially southern areas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 3 PM Fri...Band of overrunning stratiform rain cont to envelope all of ENC today. Main area of lift will exit off the coast this evening, with rain tapering off as it does so. Cool and clammy conditions for the overnight with lows in the 30s north and west to 40s south and east. Periods of light drizzle and mist will cont to afflict the region overnight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/

As of 3 PM Fri...Same boundary is forecast to remain stalled just south of ENC on Saturday. Given the close proximity, and various upper level waves moving through the region, there's the potential for areas of very light precipitation esp for the Crystal Coast and Onslow. Rain chances taper off to chc to the north, and slight chance to none north of Hwy 264. Have lowered max T's owing the cont low stratus expected to envelop ENC, and jives closer to MOS blend/HREF advertised highs in the 45-50 range.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 3 PM Fri...Mainly dry Sun, then small precip chances Mon, with dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker possible by week's end.

Sunday...High pressure center reaches the Carolinas from the N, providing a brief break in the wet weather. Partial clearing of skies with a decrease in moisture and increasing heights allow MaxTs to reach back into the 50s.

Monday...The start of next week brings another chc of precip with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing through, and spur offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps tumble through late afternoon, but moisture is coming to an end. There may be some overlap where rain mixes with some snow, but no impacts would occur even if this low end scenario pans out, as daytime highs will be in the 40s and a 'warm' ground would be in place.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions across the board return as high pressure builds back in at the SFC behind Monday's front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the coast. Highs generally in the 50s, and lows in the 20s Mon night/Tue night. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX.

Friday...Next chc for appreciable precip arrives by week's end, as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS in a cont active synoptic pattern. Due to uncertainty this far out in details and timing, pops kept at 20% or lower for now.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 2 PM Fri...

Key Messages...

- High confidence in IFR ceilings continuing through at least 7-8 am tomorrow morning

- Moderate confidence in ceilings remaining at or dropping to LIFR levels through 7-8 am tomorrow morning

- Improving conditions will late tomorrow afternoon/evening

Rain continues to overspread the region as a low pressure system moves across the SE coast. Ceilings remain at IFR levels (< 1000 ft), and have dropped to LIFR thresholds (< 500 ft) in some spots. Rain will taper off this evening from NW to SE however low clouds and surface moisture will remain locked in through tonight with IFR/LIFR conditions continuing. These very low ceilings and a freshly saturated ground will promote areas of fog development as well, with visibilities likely dropping to 3-5 miles overnight into tomorrow morning. Very little improvement will occur before 10 am tomorrow morning, but ceilings will begin to lift to IFR or even low end MVFR by early tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions will finally return sometime early tomorrow night.

MARINE

As of 3 PM Fri...nnerly surge was not as strong as expected, and have cancelled the SCA for Pam sound early, though 6 ft seas linger for the waters north of Hatteras, and SCA remains through early this evening.

Sat through Sun...Good boating conditions on the weekend with mainly 2-4 ft seas, with some 5 ft sets outer waters, but winds in the 5-15 kt range.

Mon...Backdoor front passes through with a sharp ramp up in winds expected. Solid SCA conditions expected, with the possibility for gales, esp the better mixed Gulf waters offshore south of C Hatteras. Seas will quickly inc to 5-8 ft during the day Mon and remain there through early Tue.

Tue through Thu...Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late Wed winds turn swrly and inc to near SCA (15-25 kt) for the Gulf waters, and 10-20 kt elsewhere.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150- 152-154.