textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Higher confidence in strong winds and extreme cold this weekend.

Storm and Gale Warnings issued for the marine areas.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Black ice and snow/ice refreeze remains a threat to travel this morning and the next few days, though lesser impacts are expected with extensive melting recently.

2) Dangerous cold expected Saturday and Sunday, and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the coldest period, Saturday night to Sunday morning when wind chills could drop below 0 across most of ENC.

MARINE...Storm and Gale Warnings have been issued for this weekend as very strong winds (and gusts up to 50 kts) develop behind an Arctic cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Though we've seen extensive melting of the snow pack from a combination of rain and warm temperatures, there remains a threat to black ice and snow/ice refreezing this morning and the next few days as temperatures drop well below freezing at night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An intense Arctic front will cross the region early tomorrow morning, and very cold temperatures will advect into the area through the day Saturday and Saturday night. Strong winds will develop Saturday morning and continue through Saturday night, leading to extremely cold wind chill values, especially overnight. Winds chills will drop below 0 degrees Saturday night as air temps fall into the lower teens, and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for all of ENC for this threat.

Highs on Saturday will only reach around the freezing mark due to the strong CAA, and portions of the area may see wind chills meeting Cold Weather Advisory (wind chills less than 15 degrees) criteria for most of the day. Very cold conditions continue Sunday and Sunday night, though at the moment we look to stay above Cold Weather Advisory thresholds.

Record lows are possible Sunday morning, see CLIMATE section below for more details.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Expect VFR conditions into Fri evening with high and mid clouds entering from the NW Fri afternoon. Then as a potent mid level disturbance dives SE'wards across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a front expect ceilings to begin to lower to sub-VFR as early as Fri evening. Best chances of seeing at least MVFR conditions are north of hwy 70, including KPGV and KISO. Further south away from the best moisture and forcing, ceilings should be higher. There is also a chance at a brief period light rain across eastern NC and/or light snow north of hwy 264 late this evening, although have kept precip mentions out of the TAFs given the short duration and light nature of the precip. Winds remain light through the period generally 10 kts or less, although LLWS concerns exist Friday night ahead of the cold front for all terminals.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR Saturday morning behind a cold front as high pressure builds in. Winds will be gusty Saturday, gusting up to 35 knots out of the NW inland, up to 45 knots for OBX. Winds ease up Sunday with high overhead. Could see some lower ceilings and Tuesday as a warm approaches the region from the south.

MARINE

Hazardous marine conditions continue this morning with Small Craft Advisories in effect. Dangerous marine conditions will then develop early tomorrow morning behind a strong Arctic cold front, with Storm conditions expected across most of the coastal waters, and with high end Gale conditions elsewhere.

Winds will continue to subside early this morning, and conditions have improved to N 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Wind gusts should drop below 25 kts by mid morning, but lingering 6 ft seas will keep Small Craft conditions into this afternoon.

Winds will begin to increase again this evening ahead of the Arctic front to WSW 15-25 kts, strongest over the southern coastal waters, and then will switch abruptly to the NW behind the front after midnight. Winds will initially increase to NW 25-35 kts with gusts 40-45 kts early Sunday morning. Winds then surge stronger by mid Sunday morning to NW 30-40 kts with gusts 45-50 kts through early Sunday night. Winds then begin subside slowly overnight into Monday morning. Seas will be 6-10 ft by Saturday morning, and then increase to 8-12 ft by Saturday evening, before slowly subsiding into Sunday morning.

Outlook: Winds will continue to improve Sunday and Monday, though lingering seas will keep Small Craft conditions over the coastal waters through at least Monday morning. Light NW and then W winds expected into Wednesday when winds increase ahead of the next front.

CLIMATE

Record low temps for 2/8 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15/1947 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 11/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 14/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 15/1977 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 10/1977 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 15/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1970 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15/1970 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 12/1934 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 10/1970 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 16/1995 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18/1995 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NCZ029-044-079-090>092-094-193>196-198-199- 204-205. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NCZ045>047-080-081-203. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ135. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Gale Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150- 156-158. Storm Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152. Storm Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ154. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ158.