textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SCAs trimmed slightly with winds not expected to be as strong today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light rain possible today and tomorrow (20-50%) with highest chances over northern NC (50-60%).

3) Well above normal conditions return midweek through this weekend with high pressure ridging offshore.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Behind a backdoor cold front cold air damming will setup today due to the building surface high to our northeast. This will keep cool and overcast conditions with breezy northeast winds, limiting highs to the low to mid 50s. Chances for light rain (20-50%) will increase this afternoon and linger into tomorrow, driven by a few shortwaves moving through aloft and a developing coastal trough. Highest chances for rain will be along and north of US 64 (50-60%). CAD (and low clouds) looks to break down tomorrow afternoon with temps rebounding into the mid to upper 60s

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong ridge of high pressure will set up over the SE US and eventually off the Atlantic coast later this week and into the weekend. This will bring well above normal conditions to the Carolinas with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to still very cold ocean/sound temps. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there's potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

IFR/MVFR cloud deck spreading south along/east of hwy 17 behind the cold front which is now located near Cape Fear. IFR probs are highest along the immediate coast, with MVFR further inland impacting EWN and OAJ. west of hwy 17, mostly VFR conditions are expected through the night, although brief drops to MVFR are possible for ISO between 7-9Z. A tempo MVFR group has been put in to cover this. Behind this cold front, NE winds around 10 knots can gust to 15-20 knots at times inland, increasing to sustained 15-20 kt gust 25-30 kt along the coast. Clouds will fill in inland as well after sunrise, with the entire CWA at overcast MVFR skies through the entire day Monday. Monday night, a shortwave moves into the mid- atlantic and brings lower ceilings and light rain, with all sites forecasted to reach IFR levels.

Outlook: Probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of IFR conditions from Monday night into Tuesday. Periods of -RA look to accompany the low CIGs as well. Improving aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week. As we get into late week, moist southerly flow moves into the region as high sits offshore. If radiational cooling conditions occur during the night thanks to clear skies and calm winds, fog potential will be worth monitoring.

MARINE

Small craft conditions have developed across most of the marine area early this morning behind a cold front. Small craft conditions will continue through much of the day, with improving winds expected by early tonight, while hazardous seas linger into tomorrow.

Winds will generally be NE at 15-25 kts today with gusts to around 30 kts. Winds will weaken tonight to around 10-20 kts as a coastal trough offshore pivots into the nearshore waters. Winds will remain 10-15 kts tomorrow but wind direction will vary from NE to SE depending on the location of the trough.

Seas will continue to increase this morning and eventually reach 5-8 ft. Seas will then be mostly 4-7 ft tonight, with 6 ft seas lingering along the nearshore waters north of Ocracoke through most of tomorrow.

Outlook: Pleasant boating conditions are expected for the rest of the week and into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ131- 137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.