textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased fire danger concerns continue across portions of the coastal plain today, and again tomorrow (TUE).

Aviation Discussion has been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increased Fire Danger remains in place for parts of the interior ENC coastal plains today. NCFS has requested another IFD statement over the same area tomorrow. See Fire Weather Forecast (FWF) for more details.

2) Forecast continues to trend warmer and drier through the work-week with the late week front not expected to reach the FA.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Despite a moistening return flow in place bringing MinRHs levels above usual IFD criteria, the drought conditions and fuel dryness, and strengthening afternoon winds, another IFD will be issued for tomorrow (TUE) over the same areas as today (inland tier of counties, Duplin Co Nward through Martin Co.) after collaborating with neighbors and the NCFS.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Deterministic and ensemble guidance have continued to showcase a decidedly drier mid to late week, keeping the offshore high anchored offshore, keeping any precip associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC, well to the N of the FA. Next best chance of rain from a stronger cold front expected to push through the FA late SUN. Though isolated diurnal showers would be possible each day given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast. This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. Adding additional support for the drier scenario is climatological guidance (CFS), which shows a strong signal for below normal precipitation through the end of the week. Consequently, NBM keeps PoPs below mentionable all the way through FRI. Above normal temperatures will continue this week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Predominant VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. High pressure will keep southerly to south-southwesterly winds prevailing across Eastern NC through Tuesday. Diurnal cumulus field will dissipate near sunset with mostly clear skies overnight.

Outlook (Tuesday afternoon through Friday): Minimal change to the longer term aviation forecast as a stagnant weather pattern persists across the region. High pressure offshore keeping southerly flow in place and any significant lift remains off to the NW and W of ENC into the weekend. Given the moist southerly flow off the Atlantic, plus increasing warmth and weak instability, it is expected that there will be a daily round of a SCT to BKN cumulus cloud layer. Though chances are low, cannot completely rule out reduced VIS in BR/MIFG during the overnight and early morning hours through the extended period.

MARINE

Latest obs show SSWerly winds 15-20 kt with some gusts up to 25kt. Buoys show 3-5ft seas at 8-9sec. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the work-week, keeping S-SWerly breeze in place through the period. Winds, similar to today, will strengthen in the afternoon and evening as thermal gradient strengthens with peak heating.

Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): A very stagnant weather pattern appears to be shaping up across the area this week. This pattern will be characterized by high pressure offshore, with fronts struggling to make it this far south. This should keep a modest south to southwest flow in place for much, if not all, of this coming week. A front will attempt to approach the region from the NW Thursday, but the high is now forecast to remain in place, keeping the front well to the N of area waters. Expect 15-25kt winds and 4-5 ft seas during the afternoon and evenings, lay down overnight and through the early morning until the thermal gradient strengthens again in the afternoon. Gulfstream waters and far Eern portions of Pamlico Sound most likely to see gusts up to 25kt, but not enough areal coverage to warrant SCA issuance at this time.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.