textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs have been trimmed to end sooner this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will conclude this evening with gusty NE winds continuing into night.

2) Today's front will lift back north as a warm front late tomorrow into Wednesday followed by another cold front Thursday, which will bring the next wave of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...All convective activity has moved offshore but a few isolated showers remain possible across the coastal plain this evening. Strong northeasterly winds with gusts to 15-20 mph inland and 30-35 mph near the coast will persist through this evening as stout CAA builds in. This will knock tonight's lows down to the mid/upper 40s inland and 50s along the coast. High pressure will build in tomorrow with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s inland and 60s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stacked low cutting across the southern extent of the Great Lakes and high pressure migrating offshore brings warm and moist air across the Carolinas mid week ahead of the next front set to cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday. This system will have decent dynamics to work with but current timing is working against it with limited instability due to the FROPA being outside of peak heating. Will continue to monitor the potential for severe weather with this system. High pressure transits ECONUS and sets up offshore through late week leading to a warming trend and dry weather into the weekend.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Cold front currently pushing towards the Crystal Coast this afternoon will push off the coast this evening keeping an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly along the southern TAF sites (OAJ/EWN) over the next 1-2 hours. A few stronger storms are possible with gusts of 40+ kt and small hail, along with heavy rain. Lowering cigs will encroach behind the boundary with more stable air also ending thunder chances, and MVFR will likely linger this afternoon to after sunset before scattering out from north to south.

Guidance can come in slightly more aggressive with fog development as of this update for early Tues morning mainly between 9-12Z Tuesday, with HREF probs of less than 5 mile vis at about 20-40%. Will need to monitor trends but an additional mention of fog may be in the cards if trends continue for all TAF sites.

Outlook: Confidence is high mid-week when the next system will move through the area with additional showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

A strong northeasterly surge is spreading south across the waters and will continue into tonight. This surge will bring strong winds with gusts to 30-40 kt across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters. Frequent Gale force gusts across the 0-60 nm zones from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout will persist through around midnight, gradually relaxing into Tuesday morning. Gale force gusts are expected to be more brief across the 20-60 nm zones across the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet and south of Cape Lookout. Seas will peak tonight at 5-10 ft and subside to 3-7 ft by Tuesday evening.

Outlook (Tuesday night into late week): Winds will veer to the south Tuesday night and decrease to 10-15 kt. SCAs will be needed once the coastal water gales drop off after midnight tonight with seas over outer portions of these waters remaining 6+ft through Tuesday. Today's front lifts back north through the region mid- week ahead of the next front to cross late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing yet another potential round of showers, storms, and SCA conditions to our waters. High pressure sets up offshore after the midweek front allowing for calming seas and relaxing winds with a dry and warming forecast lasting into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-182-184-186. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ158.