textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Low pressure has trended a bit slower for this morning. Increased wind gusts and wave heights through today. Increased PoPs for today. Increased QPF for today.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Increasing precipitation chances overnight tonight into Friday ahead of strong front and the remnants of Post Tropical Storm Arthur.

Marine) Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories in effect today.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A frontal system will move across the area today with the chances for rain and thunder to increase this morning and then again during peak heating. Later on a combination of instability and increasing wind shear will lead to the possibility of severe weather. SPC currently has the area in a marginal risk for severe weather with damaging winds and an isolated tornado being the most likely risks. In addition locally heavy rain will be possible, particularly in training storms. As such, WPC also has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Despite the possibilty of heavy rain, the area remains entrenched in a drought and todays rainfall will likely not be enough to turn things significantly with regard to drought, but it could be a start. Particularly because the remnants of post tropical storm Arthur are merging with the front, bringing a wet airmass to the area with precipitable waters over two inches.

The cold front moves through later this afternoon, from NW to SE. With the low moving through earlier in the day, we will be in a NW flow regime and have some dry air advecting in ahead of this front aloft. With that in mind, should any showers and tstorms form along the front the coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered at best. IF the updrafts are able to overcome this dry layer, we will have decent low level lapse rates, deep shear, and some DCAPE to play with and gusty winds would become a concern. For now though, given the dry layer capped PoPs at around 25% along this front.

Expect drier and a bit cooler weather for Saturday but then hot and dry weather returns for Sunday before the next rain chances come on Monday.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Pred VFR conditions through most of the overnight tonight, with conditions deteriorating this morning. Low pressure approaches from the SW, crossing through the region in the late morning and afternoon hours. This will bring low ceilings and vis with periods of heavy rainfall. Widespread sub- VFR likely with periods of IFR. Despite the more warm nature of the rain processes, thunder can't be discounted but weak mid- level lapse rates will make it difficult for any robust lightning producing storms to exist. Will continue VCTS mention for thunderstorms Friday. Conditions improve late this afternoon into the evening as the low moves away and dry air moves in.

Outlook: Overnight fog and stratus threat possible each morning late this week into the weekend. Weekend is trending drier and more quiet with predominant VFR expected.

MARINE

Increasing southwesterly winds today across all waters ahead of an approaching low from the remnants of Arthur in addition to a cold front. Gale Warnings remain in effect with this update, with an expansion for coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Surf City today as the low moves through. At this time winds inside the sounds may stay just below Gale criteria but will have to watch the observations for a potential expansion of Gale Warnings or a MWS for the Pamlico Sound.

With the remnants of Post Tropical Storm Arthur moving through the area, the track of the remnant low will be worth monitoring. An inland track, which is the current expectation, could bring a waterspout threat to waters today in addition to thunderstorms.

Outlook (Fri night through Mon): Boating conditions improve over the weekend behind the passing front, with next threat window for mariners early next week ahead of another front.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-154-156- 180-182-184-186-188. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ158. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ158.