textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Special Weather Statement for black ice has been issued

Cold Weather Advisory remains in place through Tuesday morning.

Increased chances for a wintry mix Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold temperatures continue this morning with a Cold Weather Advisory in place for most locations.

2) Travel will remain treacherous through at least mid week due to black ice and the lingering snow cover.

3) A threat for a wintry mix is increasing as temperatures drop below freezing Wednesday night. Freezing rain and snow will be the primary precip type concerns.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures have fallen safely below the freezing mark early this morning, generally in the upper 10s to low 20s. While there will be less wind, good radiational cooling and a snowpack in place with a few knots of wind will be enough to have wind chills touch cold weather advisory criteria in most counties outside of Outer Banks Dare and Outer Banks Hyde. Temperatures will ease down further overnight, bottoming out in the low to mid 10's with a wind chills touching the single digits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Impacts from this weekend's winter storm will continue through much of the week as black ice and remaining snow pack make travel hazardous, particularly during overnight and morning hours when temperatures are expected to be well below freezing. This cycle of melting during the day and refreezing overnight will continue for much of the week before another shot of frozen P-types moves into the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Special Weather Statement has been issued through this morning to highlight the potential for black ice on the roads. Future SPSs will likely be needed for much of the remaining week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Models are in fairly good agreement on a low pressure system moving across the northern Great Lakes and Quebec and dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley and across the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas by Thursday morning.

Precipitation is likely to begin overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is a low probability (less than 10%) that this may start off as a low-impact wintry mix before transitioning to a cold rain for much of Wednesday. Precipitation amounts will be a respectable half to three quarters inch, which will significantly aid in eroding the snowpack in place across ENC. Temperatures will moderate through the day into the low to mid 40s.

As cold air begins to catch the system, expect a period of mixed winter precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Model soundings depict boundary layer temperatures falling the quickest while warm nose aloft hangs on for a few hours, resulting in a thermal profile favorable for freezing rain for a few hours. By Thurs morning, entire profile will be below 0 C bringing a transition to snow. The most likely area for these profiles to overlap with sufficient moisture will be north of Highway 264 where a few hundredths of an inch of snow may fall. Elsewhere, some modest ice accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch are possible. Guidance is likely overstating accumulation by a couple hundredths given the complicating factors of previous rainfall and warmer antecedent conditions in the low to mid 40s, but the odds for at least a hundredth of an inch of ice remains moderate - 40 to 50%.

Daytime highs will moderate through the remainder of the week but overnight lows will remain below freezing each night, keeping the chances for black ice around through the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions with generally clear skies and light winds in place through Tuesday evening. There is a very low risk of some patchy fog early this morning over area snowpack, but this will remain shallow and pose little impact to flight operations. late Tuesday evening and Tuesday night, there is a low end potential (10% chance) of some shallow fog to form as southwesterly winds bring some relatively moist air into the region. Expansive snowpack over ENC should help cool down this moist air mass on top of it, with large uncertainty on if it cools enough to reach saturation. As a worst case scenario could see a combination of sea fog with the SW flow over cool waters coming onshore in addition to radiational fog away from the coast late Tuesday. Rain starts moving into the region Wednesday morning ahead of a front bringing gradually lowering ceilings and a brief period of LLWS for PGV and ISO.

Outlook: Another weak weather system will push across the area Wednesday into early Thursday that will likely produce MVFR to IFR conditions in light to moderate rain with a 40-50% chance for a change over to wintry precipitation Wednesday evening into early Thursday. Predominantly VFR conditions return for a dry weekend.

MARINE

SCA advisories have been dropped for all waters south of Ocracoke Inlet with remaining headlines holding through this morning. All waters will be SCA-free by midday today and remain as such into Wednesday.

Outlook: On Tue night into Wed, swrly flow inc ahead of a cold front. Hi-res guidance has backed off stronger winds over the Gulf Stream with this feature and odds of marine headlines are now low (under 20%). Wed night, strong cold front passes through, with all waters and sounds back to SCA conditions due to CAA north to northwest winds. Late in the week into the weekend, an even stronger reinforcing arctic front will brings solid SCA to gale force winds.

CLIMATE

Record Low temps for 02/03 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 9 1917 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 12 1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ152- 154.