textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased marine winds Tuesday into Tuesday Night.

Decreased pops Tuesday into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

2) Drier and cooler conditions build in today.

3) Another day of showers and embedded storms on Monday/Monday evening.

4) Trending drier and becoming unseasonably cool again late Monday night through mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Below climo highs for today as cool high pres briefly builds in. Highs mid/upper-70s inland and upper-60s/low-70s along the OBX. Dewpoints will plummet as well, making it feel quite refreshing. Sea breeze develops this afternoon though remains dry and relatively dry with TD's still below avg. Winds become light tonight, so trended on the cool side of guidance with good rad cooling. Lows in the 50s for interior areas, with 60s on the immediate coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temps will start to rebound on Monday with inland highs around 80 as high pressure moves offshore and return flow resumes with inc moisture. The next cold front will cross the area Monday night with showers and sct thunder appearing likely, focused on Monday into first part of Mon evening. Pops remain in the 60-85% range.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The trend cont for a drier soln later Mon night and esp Tue, as AIFS leading the pack of med range 31/00Z global models in development of potential coastal low further offshore. This soln would keep ENC on the drier side with cool and dry nrly flow ensuing behind Mon/Mon evenings rain. There remains some spread in ensemble guidance however, so can't take out the low end chc pops that are currently in place for ENC through mid week. Best chc for precip would be on the OBX, where some wrap around showers on back side of offshore low may advect onshore. Temps will be back to below climo, with highs in the 70s to around 80, and lows in the 50s inland to 60s during the mid week time period.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR mo SKC conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF pd. Only sct cirrus sweeping through is expected. Winds light nerly through this AM, then developing sea breeze with winds becoming serly to srly later in the afternoon though remaining light.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): The next chance of showers will be on Monday into Monday evening ahead of another cold front. Forecast Tue into mid week has trended drier, with high pres rebuilding and resuming control of the ENC weather with winds generally n to ne.

MARINE

The gusty nerly winds will decrease to 10-15 kt Sun as they veer to the E through the day with 6 ft seas lingering across the central waters until late Monday.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): 6 ft seas may linger across the coastal waters between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke until late Monday. Cold front will bring another round of showers and storms esp Mon evening. Another round of SCA winds and seas are expected to develop on Tuesday with low pres forming well off the NC coast. This will bring tightened nerly gradient winds of 20-30 kt for much of the waters and sounds, with seas rebuilding to 5-8 ft. These high seas and gusty winds could persist into Wed and even into Thu with the high seas persisting.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ156-158.