textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Edged low temperatures down a few degrees through mid week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) First freeze of the season for much of ENC away from bodies of water this morning, with frost potential elsewhere on the mainland. Cold mornings continue through mid week then a moderating trend mid to late week.

2) Dry high pres continues through much of the coming week with warm days but chilly nights and continued ongoing drought conditions. Afternoon relative humidities will be quite low but winds light.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold low-level thicknesses and strong high pressure over the region will support frost/freeze impacts across all of the mainland ENC this morning. Continued good radiational cooling through the beginning of the week will bring a freeze threat each night/morning, although a season ending freeze this morning would end the frost/freeze program for the counties the freeze occurs, and additional frost/freeze headlines may not be needed anymore. The only areas to escape frost or freezing temps tonight will be areas immediately adjacent to water bodies, including the beach communities. The risk of frost impacts may be lessened Sunday night as a weak cold front moves through which will keep the boundary layer a bit more mixed with a light breeze preventing ideal rad cooling. High pressure then reasserts itself Monday and Tuesday night, with freezing temps or frost returning once again.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The aforementioned very dry airmass and low TD's each day over the coming week will exacerbate the worsening drought conditions in place across ENC, and fortunately winds are not expected to be strong with the high nearby. However, fire weather concerns may grow with the curing vegetation combined with low RH values each afternoon. Highs will warm back to above climo in the upper 60s to low 70s mid to late week, but overnight lows will continue quite chilly and below climo with the dry high pres cont to dominate all week.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Unremarkable weather for aviation interests today as high pressure continues to dominate the area keeping skies clear and winds W to NW at under 10 kt through the period. A weak front will cross the region tonight bringing an uptick in clouds at around 5-6 kft but no precipitation.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): A weak cold front will move through ENC by early Mon with a weak northerly wind shift. There may be a brief bump up in winds as well, but at this time a significant increase in winds is not expected. Light north to northeast winds are expected to continue into much of next week as high pressure remains centered to the north of the area. Scattered low end VFR strato cu may accompany the Sunday night to Monday morning front.

MARINE

The nwrly gradient cont to weaken and winds are in the 5-15 kt range, with some gusts aoa 20 kt over the Gulf Stream where better mixing occuring. Seas cont to subside, with the last of 6 ft seas across the ctrl waters as of late this evening. All nearshore marine zones will be in the 2-5 ft range by daybreak today.

A reinforcing cold front will drop through late Sunday night into Monday morning. This front is expected to lead to a brief bump up in winds as it moves through. Some 25+ kt wind gusts may mix over the Gulf Stream waters, generally south of C Hatteras, but will not issue any SCA headlines attm, and wait to see model trends for this possibility. Seas may briefly get a bump up with this northerly surge as well and inc to 6+ ft over the Gulf.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): After Monday's wind surge, general N to NE winds of 10-20kt are expected for much of the upcoming week as high pressure remains anchored to the north while a broad area of low pressure resides to the south well offshore of the Southeast U.S. Seas appear to remain below 6 ft for the nearshore coastal waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-045- 079-080-090>092-193>195-198-199. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ046-047-081- 094-196. MARINE...None.