textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to forecast for tonight into tomorrow morning. Winter Wx Advy remains in place.

SCA has been added for Neuse and Bay Rivers.

Central Waters SCA has been upgraded to Gale Warning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Travel will remain treacherous, especially on secondary roads, through the next few days due to black ice and lingering snow cover.

2) Light snow and/or ice accumulations expected for portions of the area tonight into early tomorrow morning. The main concern is light ice accretion for areas along and west of Hwy 17. Very light snow or sleet accumulations possible across the northern tier. A Winter Wx Advisory remains in effect. Only minor impacts expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Impacts from this past weekend's winter storm will continue through the next few days as black ice and remaining snow pack will make travel hazardous, particularly during overnight and morning hours when temperatures are expected to be fall below freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Models are in fairly good agreement on a low pressure system moving across the northern Great Lakes and Quebec and dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley and across the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas by Thursday morning. Radar shows a wide swath of light returns spreading over the FA from SW to NE. Mainly a cool rain expected today, totals on the order of 0.10-0.5" should hopefully aid in eroding the snowpack in place across ENC. Below normal temps will continue today, with highs generally mid 40s to mid 50s.

A cold front will push south through the area this evening and tonight with waves of low pressure developing along it, while strong shortwave approaches from the west. Expect precip to gradually transition from rain to a wintry mix from north to south tonight into tomorrow morning (everywhere except the Outer Banks, Mainland Dare and Downeast Carteret County where temps continue to be forecast just above freezing). Model soundings depict boundary layer temperatures falling the quickest while a warm nose aloft hangs on for a few hours, resulting in a thermal profile favorable for freezing rain for a few hours, with potential for light snow/sleet as well (mainly across the northern tier). By mid- morning tomorrow, precip will likely be pushing off the coast. While some flurries can't be ruled out for most of the coastal plain, areas north of Highway 264 are those most likely to see very light snow accum (light dusting possible). A light glaze of ice is possible for much of the CWA with a 30-40% chance of more than a tenth of an inch of ice accretion roughly along Highway 17 (locally higher amounts possible).

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Cont mix of VFR, MVFR, IFR ahead of cold front now making it's way through nrn portions of ENC. Rain over the snow pack could aid in producing fog with lower vsbys at times through the day today. Early thursday morning light fzra and snow chances pick up behind the front, and have cont fzrasn for nrn/wrn TAF sites KISO/KPGV. May have to add in KEWN and KOAJ if models trend colder than adv. Icing amounts are expected to be at or less than 0.10" through the event.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions return late Thursday and expected to persist through the weekend.

MARINE

A cold front currently bisecting area waters will continue to sag Sward through this evening into early tomorrow morning. WSW- Werly winds to the south of the boundary with Nerly winds to the N of it, generally AoB 10kt currently, though stronger winds of 10-15kt are beginning to build in over far Nern waters. Moderate to strong northerly surge will develop behind the front 15-25 kt with seas responding and building to 4-6 ft, peaking at 5-9 ft Thu and Thu evening. Have added Neuse and Bay Rivers to the pre- existing SCAs. The Central Waters SCA has been upgraded to a Gale Warning with gusts of 35-40kt expected over outer waters. Some Gale gusts are possible over far Eern portions of PamSound as well as the warmer outer coastal waters from Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, but the small coverage of these winds relative to the size of the zone preclude Gale Warning issuance here.

Outlook: Conditions will slowly improve through the day Friday. This will be short lived though, with winds increasing Fri night and into the weekend as multiple fronts pass through the area with strong high pressure building in behind them. Strong SCA conditions likely to develop, with potential for Gale Force winds Sat and Sat night.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090-091. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for NCZ046-081-092-094-193>195-198-199. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 2 AM EST Friday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Friday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 9 AM EST Friday for AMZ156-158.