textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Sped up/increased and exapanded pops a bit with earlier frontal arrival on Friday.

Updated 16/06Z Aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through Thursday with a warming trend back to above climo late in the work week.

2) Unsettled weather returns over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS and sfc high pressure ridging in from the north will keep dry conditions across ENC through Thursday. Upper low retrograding to the SSW across the offshore waters through Thursday may bring a few showers near the Gulf Stream, but dry conditions expected to persist across land areas. NE flow regime remains in place through mid week bringing seasonable temperatures and comfortable dewpoint/humidity levels, then will see gradually warming and increasing dewpoints Thursday into Friday as high pressure weakens and slides offshore allowing low level flow to veer to southerly ahead of an approaching cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front originally progged to move in Sat has sped up per latest 16/00Z model suite, and now looks to move into ENC on Friday. Sfc convergence and lowering heights aloft as shortwave energy rides over the upper ridge along with increasing moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and perhaps a few storms acrs nrn half of the FA, with best chances N of Hwy 264 Friday afternoon into evening. Front slowly sags into srn portions of ENC Sat, with best chances for showers and iso thunderstorms for srn areas on Sat. Fcst a bit more muddled beyond Sat, though pops remain in the 30-50% range as above climo PW's will be in place along with wavy frontal boundary residing acrs the sern CONUS. Temps rise to above climo once again Fri into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR mainly SKC through the TAF pd other than some passing cirrus. Still a possibility for some patchy shallow fog development inland, but with drier TD's that have filtered in, have not included in the fcst attm. Winds will be light nerly on Wed, slowly veering to serly late before becoming clam again Wed night.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): High pressure cont to dominate with predominantly VFR and dry conditions expected. A cold front is progged to push south into the area as early as Fri with chances for showers and perhaps a storm, which will cont the threat for some unsettled weather into the weekend.

MARINE

Current buoy obs show NE winds cont to diminish with speeds 5-15 kt, highest on the offshore waters. Seas generally 2-4ft ocnl 5 ft sets outer waters @ 7-8sec cont. The light nerly flow will cont today with speeds generally 5-10 kt g 15 kt.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): Flow will veer to SE then S later Thu into early Fri as the high to the north weakens. A cold front drops into the nrn waters on Fri, bringing winds around back to the north again from n to s through the afternoon. The front clears the srn waters by later Fri night with nnerly winds expected to inc a bit into the 10-20 kt range. Winds and seas should remain below SCA however through the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...None.