textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marine Dense Fog Advisory expanded to include the Neuse and Bay Rivers.

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the northern portions of the forecast area.

Added a slight chance of thunderstorms across inland areas today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of dense fog across the region this morning.

2) A weakening cold front will approach the area today with a line of pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorm possible this afternoon.

3) High temperatures may approach record values today.

4) Low pressure system is forecast to bring unsettled conditions to ENC late this weekend into early next week.

Marine...Areas of dense sea fog will continue to plague the ENC waters today. There is a chance for gale force winds late this weekend into early next week across our waters as a rapidly deepening low pushes off the Mid-Atantic Coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)...There are two separate conditions bringing areas of dense fog across ENC early this morning. The first is warm and moist SW flow across the much cooler coastal waters bringing sea fog across the waters and adjacent land areas, including the Crystal Coast and the OBX. In addition, a front has front has dropped into the area and has stalled just south of the Pamlico River to near Kinston and Goldsboro and fog and low stratus has developed to the north of this boundary. Visibilities have dropped as low as 1/4 mile across the affected area and have now issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the northern half of the forecast area, generally north of highway 70. The front is expected to lift back to the north by mid morning with visibilities improving across inland areas, however moist SW flow will persist through the day keeping the threat of dense fog along the coast through much of the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2)...An upper low will track across the Great Lakes today with an attendant cold front approaching from the west. Embedded shortwave energy will push across the region with warm and moist SW flow ahead of the front bringing a chance scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. HiRes guidance shows a few showers pushing across the region this morning followed by a weakening line of pre frontal showers pushing across the region this afternoon. The warm and moist conditions will allow for modest instability across inland locations with more robust guidance showing MUCAPE around 1000 J/Kg this afternoon while strengthening deep layer SW winds will bring 0-6 km bulk shear to around 50 kt. Thunderstorms that develop are expected to remain sub-severe but they could bring locally gusty winds. The threat for storms will be greatest west of Highway 17 as the cold waters along the coast and sounds bringing much more stable conditions along the coast. KEY MESSAGE 3)...Increasing SW flow across the region today will bring low level thickness around 1390-1395m across inland locations this afternoon which brings the potential for temps to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s if sufficient insolation is realized. However, if clouds and showers remain more prevalent, high temps will likely remain in the mid to upper 70s. Record highs are in the lower 80s inland from the coast and the record values for established climate sites can be found in the CLIMATE section below. Across the immediate coast and OBX, below normal water temperatures will keep these areas cooler with highs in the 50s to 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 4)...Guidance remains in good agreement with a positively tilted shortwave tracking across the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains late this week with the trough taking on a more negative tilt and deepening slightly as it pushes off the coast early next week. At the mid levels southern stream shortwave quickly traverses the CONUS reaching the Southeast by Sun/Mon while a northern stream shortwave dives S'wards at the same time potentially phasing with the southern stream as it pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, cold front will drop SE'wards across ENC late tonight and stall south of the area on Saturday with a wave of low pressure then riding along this stalled front and deepening after it pushes offshore bringing chances for rain across the region this weekend. Precipitation gradually ends from west to east Sun night into Monday with strong CAA ramping up behind the departing low as it rapidly deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast allowing temps to fall into the 30s. There is a chance for a non impactful rain/snow mix towards the end of the event this weekend Sun night into Mon. However, this will likely be the typical cold air chasing the moisture setup so have little confidence in any other ptype besides rain. A shortwave rotating through the departing low may keep low clouds and light precip lingering through Monday. We will also need to be on the lookout for stronger winds on the backside of the low as it departs and deepens as this could bring additional coastal impacts worst case scenario.

Biggest challenge with this setup will be when the low begins to deepen as a weaker and more out to sea low track will result in lower impacts from this system while a stronger and closer to the coast track will bring greater impacts to the area.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Mix of flight cats across the FA currently, with deteriorating conditions expected for Nern terminals. LLWS is also of concern with 35-45kt winds above the inversion around FL015-020. Challenging forecast with very slow moving front across the N expected to stall overnight before lifting back Nward FRI morning. Dense sea fog across coastal and inland waters also causing reduced VIS which will keep OBX terminals in subVFR, and may impact EWN should the fog develop further up the Neuse River.

Widespread lower cigs expected to overspread the area tonight from north to south, all sites could see IFR, with best potential at PGV. SE TAF sites likely to reach MVFR CIGs closer to day break FRI. Some of the sea fog may sneak into EWN in the early morning hours, so will continue prevailing MVFR VIS due to fog whilst and the TEMPO mention for IFR. The worst VIS and lowest CIGs will be along and to the N of the front, and should this front get to the Pamlico River, PGV could see VLIFR flight cats until the front lifts further back N FRI morning. Have MVFR VIS for ISO, but this is highly dependent on location of front. ISO could dip into IFR with a more southerly front or remain VFR with a northerly stall.

The rollercoaster continues through the day FRI with brief improvement to VFR as initial front lifts Nward, but MVFR CIGs are expected to develop as scattered showers are expected ahead of a cold front approaching from the W. The overnight/early morning fog threat will cease as the front lifts northward, though sea fog may continue to impact coastal areas before VIS likely to improve in the evening. SW winds gusts 15-25 kt Fri afternoon.

Outlook: VFR likely to return by Fri evening and cont through at least mid day Sat. MVFR and IFR flight cats possible Sat night and Sun as an area of low pressure travels through the area along FRI night's front that will have stalled to the south, bringing likely rain, lower CIGs/VIS, and stronger winds into early next week.

MARINE

Warm and moist SW flow advecting over the cool SSTs is leading to areas to widespread sea fog along the coast and sounds this morning. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for all of the waters. Moist SW flow will persist today keeping the threat for dense fog for much of the day, although inland rivers will likely see improving conditions mid to late morning.

A stationary front is currently stalled across the central waters early this morning but will lift back to the north around mid morning with increasing SW flow today as a cold front approaches from the west. SW winds around 10-20 kt expected across much of the cooler waters, but offshore near the warmer Gulf Stream waters will see winds around 20-30 kt. Seas are forecast to build to around 4-7 ft in response with the stronger winds. Winds and seas will diminish tonight with a cold front pushing across the area and stalling offshore. An SCA remains in effect south of Oregon Inlet until late tonight.

Outlook: A strong low pressure system is forecast to impact the coastal waters on Sunday with strong SCA to Gale Force conditions likely Sunday night into Monday as the low rapidly deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The strength and location of the low will go a long way in determining what conditions our coastal waters see so continue to keep a close eye on forecast trends in the coming days in case the forecast trends more optimistic or pessimistic.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for Friday 02/20

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 81/1991 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/2018 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 81/2018 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 73/1994 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 82/1939 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 82/1991 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ029- 044>047-079>081. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ131- 135>137-230-231. Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156. Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ158.