textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Restricted gale warnings to nearshore and offshore waters south of Cape Lookout only.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy NE winds and high astronomical tides will bring the potential for additional coastal impacts through at least mid week.

2) Mostly dry with near to slightly below climo temps through the weekend and early next week, then warming to above climo mid to late week with continued dry conditions.

Marine: Gusty northeast winds and large seas will continue to bring hazardous boating conditions this weekend and continuing through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure well off the SE coast will result in a period of breezy to strong NE winds through early this week with strongest winds along the coast, especially south of Cape Hatteras where gradients will be tightest. This, combined with upcoming King Tide cycle lead to additional minor coastal impacts (coastal flooding and rough surf).

For Hatteras Island, seas offshore continue in the 7-9 foot range and will remain in this range today, and then slowly subside through the coming week, but long period swells will continue to cause issues for vulnerable areas in conjunction with the building King Tides. For ocean-side: high tide is between 0700-0800edt SUN. Soundside high tides lag from 2 to 3 hours behind the oceanside tides. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe.

Coastal flooding will be likely well into this week. Even with winds diminishing by mid week, "sunny day" coastal flooding across much of the tidal regions of ENC around times of high tide will continue through at least mid week, then slowly improve as the King Tides ease later in the week. The areas most susceptible to street flooding will be low lying areas along the Neuse and Bay rivers as well as Downeast Carteret County to North Topsail Beach which has already been seen during the last two morning's high tides.

There is still potential that the headlines for TUE and WED may need to be upgraded to coastal flood warnings. Will wait for this decision after we see what SUN and MON bring. In addition, if seas increase any further than currently forecast, a period of coastal flood warnings may be needed for parts of the OBX, and will need to monitor trends.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pockets of moisture continue to be squeezed between the inland high and offshore low. Though almost all guidance keeps the bulk of precip activity off the coast and perhaps skirting OBX, some light returns continue on KMHX radar, but most of this is in the form of insignificant non- accumulating sprinkles or drizzle. Most areas remain dry today, along with seasonably cool temps in the low 70s interior to 60s coast. Pleasantly cooler and drier air mass will remain with us through early this week, with near climo highs, to slightly below avg lows, esp Sun and Mon nights when good radiational cooling yet again sets up with lows well down into the 40s with some 30s again possible. Hts/thicknesses then begin to build by mid week, with temps climbing back above climo with highs in the mid 70s, then upper 70s by weeks end. Lows will remain closer to climo as dry airmass remains with a large diurnal temp range.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions cont across ENC over the next 24 hours. Some mid level strato-Cu has continued to stream in across the OBX and portions of the Inner Banks, though with ceilings generally at 7 kft no significant impact to operations is forecast today. NE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up near 20 kts during the daytime mixing period, then becoming light again by this evening. KMRH will cont to see gusty winds today into this evening as gradient is tightest along the coast.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Generally, expect VFR conditions to continue through the next several days with strong high pressure building in from the north. However, coastal sections could see MVFR STCU at times. Could be some pockets of MIFG each morning beginning Monday as strong inversion develops each morning with high pres overhead with skc and calm winds.

MARINE

High pressure will build in from the north will act to tighten the pressure gradients across the region with NE winds 15-20 kt with gust cont 25-30 kt. Area of gales has shrunk and retained to waters generally south of Cape Lookout where probs are still greater than 50% today. Lesser chances for gusty SCA winds for Alligator/Albemarle as wind fcst has eased here, but remainging nearshore waters including Pamlico and Neuse remain with SCA conditions cont today into this evening before winds improve later tonight and Mon with approaching high pres.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): High pres will build in early to mid week with winds diminishing significantly, though seas will be slow to subside, and longer period high swells appear to cont as advected 6+ ft swells affect esp the southern/ctrl waters south of Oregon Inlet through mid/late week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ094- 194>196-199-203>205. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ137- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ158-188.