textproduct: Newport/Morehead City

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marginal threat of severe thunderstorms remains in place for this evening for NWern zones of ENC.

Wind forecast has strengthened ahead of the front/low system to cross the area late tomorrow. SCAs have been issued.

Marginal threat of severe tstorms has been introduced for portions of the FA for TUE.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Marginal risk for strong to severe storms inland this evening. Dry again for Wed into Thu. Next precip chance is Fri.

2) Another Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms for most of ENC TUE afternoon and evening with frontal passage.

3) Becoming hot and humid again this week with highs in the 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pres shifts offshore today while another shortwave swings Eward across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region. This will drag a cold front into the Southeast, but as is typical this time of year, the front gets hung up or at least slows down, before reaching ENC. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms today, best chances inland this afternoon with the seabreeze though some offshore cells may skirt portion of the OBX. Breezier today as thermal gradient increases in addition to the cold front moving into the Piedmont. Some models indicate some weakening MCS activity arriving into interior ENC this evening, but this activity running into dry air should limit chances to no higher than 30-50% and mainly for our NWern FA. Best chance for a storm would be from around 8pm to 2am. Any storms that enter these areas could be on the stronger side as some renegade instability and shear of 20+ kt will be found here, with strong wind gusts the main threat. Because of this, SPC has the tier of counties furthest inland outlooked in a Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5) of severe storms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The front will then get kicked through ENC as a backdoor cold front TUE evening as stronger shortwave exits the Mid Atlantic coast. 12Z guidance has become more excited for the pressure expected to develop along the boundary, leading to slightly higher chances for more organized deep convection which has resulted in a forecast with higher PoPs, stronger SWerly winds, and greater QPF. Forecast currently advertising likely to categorical PoPs from 1400edt into the evening hours. Nern zones have highest chances of seeing more organized and strongest storms, where best convergence and forcing will be for more widespread thundershowers. After coordination with neighboring WFOs and national centers, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms (lvl 1/5) for the bulk of the forecast area. Front will sweep offshore around or shortly after sunset TUE. Strongest precip activity will remain ahead of the front and conditions will dry the first half of tomorrow night behind the front, though some wrap around moisture on the backside of the departing low could lead to some lighter showers being pushed from N to S after sunset until around midnight. Dry a relatively cooler conditions (~70/90 split for WED) return for Wed into Thu with high pres dominating. Next chance of showers and storms on Friday as next shortwave swings through the Sern CONUS.

KEY MESSAGE 3...With the return SWerly flow, hot and humid conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices, though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week. Brief break from the heat expected on Wed behind the fropa, when afternoon highs only in the low 80s OBX zones to upper 80s inland with lowered RH's as well. Heating back up Thu into Fri as return swrly flow returns.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals this evening. Showers and thunderstorms currently moving across the central piedmont will approach western rtes late this evening and potentially impacting PGV and ISO around 02-05z. While they are expected be weakening as they approach the region, they could still produce strong wind gusts and a period of sub-VFR conditions. Guidance has the storms dissipating as they move eastward and at this time don't think they will impact EWN or OAJ. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail overnight with sufficient S to SW winds to curb fog development. There is also limited chances for sub-VFR stratus with HREF probs less than 20 percent.

A cold front will approach Tuesday, pushing across rtes late afternoon into the evening hours. SW winds will gust around 20-30 kt ahead of the front, becoming NW and diminishing after fropa. Chances for showers and thunderstorms also increase through the afternoon bringing a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and lightning the primary threat with the storms.

Outlook (Tue Night through Fri): Winds turn nrly to nerly behind the front Tue evening with any precip threat ending. Mostly dry for Wed and Thu with high pres rebuilding. Next precip chance on Fri with another system approaching.

MARINE

High pressure strengthens offshore along with inland trough combined with approaching cold front, have lead to SSW winds 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt late this afternoon and evening. Some infrequent SCA criteria gusts are occuring where funneling of these Serly winds is strongest, mainly over Croatan and Roanoke Sounds. An MWS has been issued for these waters through sunset. Nocturnal showers and storms possible outside of 20nm tonight. 12Z guidance coming in stronger with the low traveling along the front to work through ENC TUE has led to an increase in the wind forecast tomorrow and the issuance of SCAs across most of area waters for 15-25kt with gusts 30-35kt.

Outlook (Tue night through Fri): The front will move through the waters Tue night with flow becoming N-NE 5-15 kt behind it. Shower activity diminishes quickly behind the front, though some lighter showers wrapping around the departing low will be possible around midnight. Return swrly winds for Thu into Fri though looks to remain below SCA conditions.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156- 158-231.