textproduct: Medford

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures are warming into the 50s this afternoon west of the Cascades with 40s and 50s east of the Cascades. Radar is overall quiet with a few lingering showers near the Cascades, and this will dry out later today. Showers will finish later today and ridging will build in the area tonight. This ridging will help clear cloud cover tonight with mostly clear skies expected. However, ample moisture will be present and these conditions combined could lead to lower visibility/ceilings.

More cloud cover arrives tomorrow morning with a shortwave trough passing across the Pacific Northwest. However, this will be dipping from the north and will have the precipitation chances focus in Oregon and west of the Cascades. Although the rain chances will be highest (80-90%) in the late morning and afternoon to more of Douglas County and the Cascades, this will not bring much rain. The forecast between Monday morning and through the evening brings on average 0.10"-0.20" at most. Lingering showers are possible Tuesday mainly along the Cascades and in Douglas County.

After, ridging builds and dry conditions continue through the work week. With this ridging there will be a warming trend with near normal to slightly above normal temperatures returning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. Getting closer to the weekend, there are differences on the impacts of our next trough. There is more agreement that there will be unsettled weather early next week. -Hermansen

AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs

Area terminals are generally under VFR conditions, although lingering showers can locally lower ceilings and visibilities as well as obscure terrain this morning.

VFR levels look to continue through the TAF period as showers decrease. Gusty winds will develop over higher terrain east of the Cascades this afternoon before decreasing this evening. With clearing skies and ample moisture tonight, lowering ceilings and visibility is possible at inland terminals. However, for now probabilities are at most 30% for Medford for MVFR visibility, so have added a low VFR visibility overnight to begin and will update in later TAFs when there's more confidence. -TAD/Hermansen

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, November 3, 2024

Gusty northerly winds continue over area waters, but will decrease through the day. A large, long period northwest swell is building into the region today, and will peak at 15 to 18 feet at 18 seconds tonight into Monday morning. A Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect through Monday morning at 10 am. Rough bar conditions and high surf are expected as this swell impacts the area. Meanwhile, rain is expected through the day Monday as a front passes overhead.

Seas will start to decrease through the day Monday but are forecast to remain steep to very steep through the day Tuesday. Less active weather is expected after Monday's warm front, but a thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds and further steep seas south of Cape Blanco by midweek. -BPN

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, November 2, 2024

The next large swell set is expected to impact the area this evening through Monday. West swell will build into the area waters quickly today, peaking at 15 to 19 feet tonight into early Monday. Periods initially as the swell arrives will be near 21 seconds, then settle to around 16-18 seconds at the peak of the swell tonight into Monday morning. Resulting breaking wave heights of 22 to 26 feet are likely this afternoon through Monday morning. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from 10 AM today through 10 AM Monday, with seas then gradually diminishing through Tuesday.

Large breaking waves create hazardous conditions along and within the surf zone, and could inundate beaches and low lying shorelines. Those venturing out to the beaches should pay close attention to the ocean at all times. Stay away from the surf zone and off of jetties. Also, area beaches may become hazardous due to dangerous surf conditions. -BPN/Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


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