textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...23/06Z TAFS

Low level wind shear (LLWS)will persist from the coast to the Coast Range, and over the higher terrain through around 18Z Monday morning, with strong low level southwest winds of 30 to 45 kt. Also, rain and areas of MVFR will continue west of the Cascade crest through Monday afternoon. Rain will be light to moderate at the coast through 18Z, then increase in intensity in the afternoon. Meantime, it will remain mainly VFR to the east side.

Conditions will deteriorate early Monday evening, after 00Z, with a predominant mix of IFR/MVFR and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall accompanying a strong front.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Sunday, February 22, 2026

A frontal system will remain draped over the marine waters through Monday. This will maintain very steep, hazardous seas along with gusty winds and periods of rain. Some of the rain will be heavy, resulting in reduced visibility at times. Overall, the south winds will average 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, though occasional gusts exceeding gale force are possible through Monday, especially south of Cape Arago. Guidance is showing a sharp wind shift line developing on Monday (with winds becoming northeast across the northern portion of the waters while the stronger south winds continue south of the front, generally south of Cape Blanco). Combined seas of 12-16 feet at 10 seconds overnight, will ever so slightly lower, but not by much during Monday (9-13 feet).

Then, low pressure will move northeastward along the front, swinging through the waters Monday evening into early Tuesday. This will bring another surge of stronger south winds and very steep seas, with south gales south of Cape Blanco. Wind speeds diminish early Tuesday, but very steep seas will remain elevated during Tuesday with steep seas likely to follow through Tuesday evening. Conditions are then forecast to gradually improve Tuesday night into Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 220 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a very large circulation off the coast of Vancouver Island, which is the parent low that brought us the winds and rain of yesterday and today. To the southwest of that low, satellite shows another large low circulation out around 40N 150W. These two lows have set up a corridor of swift southwest flow between the tropics near Hawaii and the coast of the Pacific Northwest, which will be the conveyor belt, or Pineapple Express, that transports deep, warm moisture into our area tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday.

Until this moisture arrives, we will remain under the periphery of that broad northeast Pacific low, with widespread breezy south winds and showers, mainly along and west of the Cascades, through tonight. Temperatures will also remain relatively warm due to continued south flow.

The deep moisture plume arrives tomorrow afternoon, with the steadier moderate to heavy rain beginning at the coast a little past midday, spreading east to the Cascades by evening, then to the rest of the forecast area overnight. The heaviest rain should arrive in the area around or shortly after sunset and continue overnight. Current rainfall forecasts show widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches along the coast with locally up to 6 inches in the favored coast ranges of Curry County. Up to an inch of rain is expected for many of the inland West Side valleys, with 1 to 3 inches along the Cascades and mountains and south slopes of Siskiyou County, and between a quarter of an inch and an inch across the East Side.

The incoming warm air will present another concern, and that is snowmelt. With snow levels expected to rise to well above 7000 or even 8000 feet, warm rain will fall on recent snows, adding to the runoff in all area creeks, streams, and rivers. These drainages are likely to rise rapidly during this event with nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways during periods of heavy rain. Significant rises on main stem rivers and flashier creeks are also expected. Given that rivers are still running fairly low for this time of year, river flooding potential is a bit lower than usual, but there is at least a low probability of some flooding, especially in the Coquille Basin, and along the more flashier streams such as Deer Creek in Roseburg and Little Butte Creek in Eagle Point.

The main belt of moisture pushes off to the south late Tuesday, with rain diminishing at the coast by Tuesday afternoon and the rest of the area by Tuesday night. Showers then continue into Wednesday as onshore flow persists, but amounts by this time will be light. Snow levels will lower to about 3000 to 4000 ft Wednesday as showers taper off, so some light snow is possible at elevation, but no winter impacts are expected.

Upper level ridging returns to the area for the latter half of the week, with dry and warmer conditions expected Thursday and Friday, and potentially into Saturday (despite the NBM and therefore the official forecast keeping rain chances ongoing throughout the week). Area valleys, however, will likely see strong inversions with fog and low clouds overnight and into the mornings, especially west of the Cascades. The latest model runs are showing some signs of a frontal system and upper low arriving from the west over the weekend, but confidence is low. Updates will follow as needed.

HYDROLOGY...A warm sourced atmospheric river, commonly referred to as a Pineapple Express, will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Current rainfall forecasts show widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches along the coast with locally up to 6 inches in the favored coast ranges of Curry County. Up to an inch of rain is expected for many of the inland West Side valleys, with 1 to 3 inches along the Cascades and mountains and south slopes of Siskiyou County, and between a quarter of an inch and an inch across the East Side.

Compounding the hydrological concerns, the warm rain is expected with snow levels well above 7000 feet, which will result in snowmelt and therefore higher than expected runoff in area watersheds.

Small streams and creeks are likely to rise rapidly during this event with nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways during periods of heavy rain. Significant rises on main stem rivers and flashier creeks are also expected. Given that rivers are still running fairly low for this time of year, river flooding potential is a bit lower than usual, but there is at least a low probability of some flooding, especially in the Coquille Basin, and along the more flashier streams such as Deer Creek in Roseburg and Little Butte Creek in Eagle Point.

While the exact scenario for the heavy rainfall and potential flooding remains uncertain, we will continue to monitor the forecasts and update accordingly. Flood Watches may be issued by the National Weather Service if this situation worsens.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 7 PM PST Monday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ356- 376.

Gale Warning from 7 PM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ356- 376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-370.