textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

High clouds and relatively warm moist flow will continue to push into the forecast area through the day as a low moves through the Pacific. The probability of precipitation(PoP) forecast does have some PoP along the coast around 60 to 70 percent this afternoon and evening. However, most of the region will miss out on the rain as the low shoots towards British Columbia.

These high clouds should linger into the weekend as warm moist flow continues to push into the region and an occluded front is situated off the Oregon coast. Ensembles then bring this front farther inland with PoPs increasing 60 to 70 percent for areas west of the Cascades on Sunday. However, the quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF) remains rather light during the day on Sunday. Even with the increase in PoPs, any impact from rain or snow is basically negligible.

A warm front will push through the Pacific Northwest by Monday and temperatures should push a little higher as some warmer moist air moves in. By midweek, high pressure strengthens over Nevada and we'll see temperatures continue to push higher with mid 60's for areas west of the Cascades and lower 60's and perhaps some upper 50's east of the Cascades.

This is really driven home by the extreme forecast index(EFI), which can help pick up on unusually and extreme events in the ensembles. Data shows EFI values around 0.7 to 0.8 between Wednesday and Friday, which suggests plenty of ensemble members above the climate mean around this time of year. We'll approach some high temperature records on Wednesday and Thursday near Alturas and Klamath Falls. Ensembles are pretty confident it will remain dry through the 8th, then things could start to change around mid February. However, the models have been showing that plenty of times through late January and not much has happened.

-Smith

AVIATION...30/12 TAFs

VFR ceilings of mid and high level clouds will persist through Friday evening. A very weak front will bring virga and perhaps occasional light showers to Coos and Douglas counties in the afternoon, but very little precipitation is expected at the surface, if any at all.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, January 30, 2026

A series of offshore fronts will maintain unsettled conditions through today. South winds will remain at advisory strength along with a series of high and steep west swells. Conditions slightly improve late tonight into Saturday, but another front could bring stronger south winds and steep seas again late Saturday into Sunday, with steep seas persisting on Monday.

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MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.