textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Mostly dry weather to start this weekend with inland high temperatures 2-7 degrees F below normal.

* Isolated showers/sprinkles are possible (15-20% chance) Sunday afternoon/evening, especially in the southern Klamath/Trinity mountains and over toward the Warners; otherwise, dry.

* Temperatures trend toward normal next week, without any big storm systems on the horizon. * Warming continues into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery is showing some lower clouds in the inland valleys of Coos and Douglas counties this morning. These should burn off mid-late morning. Other than some high clouds at times, short wave upper ridging will bring dry weather area wide today with afternoon temperatures a few degrees below the seasonal norms.

An upper trough will swing southward through the area on Sunday with an upper low closing off to our SW. This should bring at least a little more cloud cover over SE portions of the forecast area. Many areas won't even notice this system since there will be little discernible change in the weather. However, there should be at least some afternoon/evening cumulus development over the mountains including the Cascades, especially in NorCal and over toward the Warners. Overall, moisture and instability are both lacking, so I wouldn't expect much more than an isolated shower or two with probability of occurrence in the 10-20% range. Should anything materialize, it would be most likely over the mountains of southern Siskiyou and into Trinity County, then also in eastern Modoc/Lake counties.

Dry, seasonable weather is expected much of next week. The low will head eastward through the Great Basin, while zonal flow aloft develops across the North Pacific. This will keep us under a flat ridge with a frontal system moving onshore into Washington/NW Oregon Tuesday night. This front will get strung out to our north and we don't expect much, if any impact from it. Odds are minimal (15% or less) for a little light rain along the north coast near Reedsport. Models show potential for ridge amplification late next week, though more likely next weekend. This could bring a period of warmer weather then, but considerable spread among the model suites does not inspire much confidence beyond mid next week. The majority of ensemble solutions do, however, show a period of above normal warmth during week two, October 3rd-9th. -Spilde

AVIATION...26/12Z TAFs

Satellite is showing some lower clouds and fog (MVFR/IFR/LIFR) over interior Coos and western/southern Douglas counties this morning. The lower conditions could impact the terminal at Roseburg around sunrise, but it remains VFR at the moment. Offshore flow should maintain VFR conditions along the immediate coast by keeping the marine layer from developing. Expect some gusty north winds ~25kt at North Bend this afternoon/evening. Patchy low clouds could develop there tonight, but it's more likely offshore flows wins out again with VFR. High level clouds are expected elsewhere today, but with VFR. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Saturday, September 26, 2026

A thermal trough pattern will keep unsettled conditions over the coastal waters the rest of the weekend and into next week with periods of gusty north winds and steep short period seas, highest south of Cape Blanco. West swell arrives Monday and conditions could improve a bit into Tuesday, but conditions overall are not likely to change much through midweek. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.