textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...25/18Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail across the region with the exception of some scattered MVFR ceilings in the Brookings area and some low end VFR ceilings across the Modoc Plateau and around the Medicine Lake area in southeastern Siskiyou County. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for most locations with some breezy west to northwest winds developing this afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop just south of the OR/CA border this afternoon as well, mainly from the Mt Shasta region and areas eastward. Shower activity looks to continue into the overnight hours, but once they clear, areas of MVFR ceilings will likely linger across far northeastern CA into Sunday morning.

Along the coast, marine stratus will return to the coastal waters and along the coast/coastal valleys. Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to return around 06-08z and persist into Sunday morning. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 611 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026/

DISCUSSION...With a low pressure system to the east spinning over central Canada/northern United States add an upper ridge to the west over the Pacific, activity for the area in this forecast period looks minor at most. For today, an upper disturbance swings around that continental low pressure system and moves over the area. This will help to cool daytime highs west of the Cascades, while temperatures farther east remain similar to Friday's. 15-25% thunderstorm chances remain over southern Siskiyou and Modoc counties, from the Trinity Alps eastward. Model CAPE values remain in the 100-300 J/kg range, suggesting thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered at most. Light showers continue in this are into Sunday.

Unstable air aloft remains over the area into Sunday, bringing another few degrees of cooling to most areas. Shower chances are expected to increase farther north, mostly along the Cascades and down into southern Lake and Klamath counties in addition to northern California counties. CAPE values remain marginal in these areas, leading to a slight dip in thunderstorm chances to 10-20%.

In total, areas along the southern Siskiyou and Modoc County borders may see between one-third and one inch of precipitation through the weekend. Most rainfall looks to occur on Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Saturday's snow levels of 7000-7500 feet will allow Mount Shasta and parts of the Warner Mountains to get a few inches of snowfall. Snow levels drop to 6000 feet on Sunday, allowing for snow to continue over Mount Shasta and the Warner Mountains. Chances of snow showers move into southern Lake County but with amounts forecast to be an inch or less.

Mild weather and minor activity chances look to continue into the start of the upcoming week. Upper air modeling shows the unstable air moving eastward, but maybe remaining close enough to bring a few scattered showers (20-40% chances) along and east of the Cascades on Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening. Daytime highs warm on Wednesday as the upper ridge starts to move over the area, but with some uncertainty depending on how exactly the upper pattern sets up. NBM probabilistic guidance keeps daytime highs for Medford in the 70s for Wednesday through Friday, but whether that will be the low 70s or high 70s depends on the setup. Given a period of stability, temperatures east of the Cascades may also warm to the mid 70s by this coming Friday. Lakeview has a 60% chance for Friday's daytime high to exceed 70 degrees on Friday. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 815 PM PDT Friday, April 24, 2026...High pressure offshore and a low pressure trough along the coast will maintain northerly winds into tomorrow. Winds will peak during the afternoon/evenings resulting in periods of advisory level winds and steep seas that will combine with a low background northwest swell. Steep seas will persist for all areas through tonight, gradually retreating west and south early tomorrow, becoming focused south of Cape Blanco tomorrow afternoon into early Sunday morning. The pattern weakens some Sunday into Monday, resulting in less steep seas and improved conditions for early next week. Steep seas could return around mid-week when there could be an uptick in northerly winds and an increasing northwest swell moves into the waters.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.