textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

While ceilings may approach or reach MVFR at times, we really are expecting this to be a predominately VFR forecast with KRBG, KMFR, and KLMT seeing VFR chances around 85%-95% throughout the cycle. However, North Bend does have a 20%-30% chance for MVFR ceilings. Wind speeds will pick up this afternoon and may be slightly breezy at times, but speeds will calm down around/after sunset.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 253 AM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026/

DISCUSSION...Onshore flow continues this morning, with a few isolated showers showing up on radar along the Coos and Douglas county coasts. These light showers will continue through today, with a few here and there pushing across the coastal mountains and into the Umpqua Basin and potentially as far inland as the Douglas County Cascades. All other areas should remain dry, although there will be plenty of clouds streaming overhead.

A semi-zonal flow pattern will guide moisture to the Pacific coast through the forecast period, although much like today, the vast majority of the shower activity is expected to stay north of the area, where a front will become stall out for much of the week. With our forecast area remaining south of the main belt of moisture flow, most rain will stay to our north as well. With a lack of upper level support, any showers that do develop will be a result of topographic lift, mainly along the coast, over coastal ranges, and along the Cascades.

On Wednesday, temperatures start to warm across the area. A weak warm front arriving at the coast will increase shower chances over Curry, Coos, and Douglas counties as well as along the Cascades, but any rainfall/mountain snowfall will again be light. Afternoon and evening winds are expected to increase, but not to hazardous levels. Breezy conditions are expected across the West Side. Areas to the east will see higher winds, with gusts in east side basins possibly reaching 20 mph while winds over terrain may reach up to 40-45 mph. This pattern of afternoon/evening breezes and gusts looks to be be present through the end of the week and may last into Saturday, with the strongest winds likely on Wednesday and Thursday.

Slight shower chances remain in the forecast for coastal counties and the Cascades on Thursday and Friday as zonal flow stays in place and onshore flow continues. On Saturday, a weak cold front may bring showers farther inland, but precipitation amounts and winds look unimpactful. There's some agreement in long-term ensemble guidance that a Pacific ridge will strengthen in the wake of Saturday's cold front, bringing above average temperatures across the area on Sunday and into the following week.

AVIATION...09/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail for the region through the TAF period. Lower end VFR ceilings, and perhaps occasional MVFR ceilings, are expected along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin in some light showers this morning. Terrain obscurations will persist along the Cascades/Foothills and the Siskiyous as northwest to northerly flow keeps stratus banked up there. Otherwise, high level clouds will continue to stream over the region through the TAF period, with gusty winds developing this afternoon over high terrain and east of the Cascades.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, March 10, 2026...Wind wave dominated seas early this morning will transition to steep west- northwest swell today, followed by increased south winds Wednesday into Thursday as a front approaches the area then stalls out just to our north. The strongest winds and more unsettled weather will remain north of Florence, but steep seas will persist north of Cape Blanco with very steep seas possible north of Reedsport Wednesday afternoon and evening. Improving conditions are possible late in the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.