textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)

Key Points:

* Minor to Moderate impacts expected through this forecast

* Moderate impacts from heatwave through Tuesday - Temperatures upwards of 20-25 degrees above normal - Many westside valleys with highs around 100 degrees

* Elevated fire weather conditions through the heatwave - Fuels are the main driver for not issuing a Red Flag Warning - Fuels likely become more receptive next week after heatwave

* Increasing signal for thunderstorms Friday/Saturday - Mainly northern California and eastside areas - Friday has the potential for severe weather

Further Details:

An area of 500mb high pressure remains over the Pacific located roughly between 130W/140W and approximately 40N, resulting in a dry northerly to northwesterly flow over the forecast area through Tuesday. By Wednesday, the high starts to break down, and by Thursday we will see a trough emerge over the Pacific at the same time the high moves east/southeast over the Desert Southwest. In the meantime, the area of high pressure will keep highs well above normal for this time of year, and has resulted in a Heat Advisory for much of the area through Tuesday. The eastside gets into the Heat Advisory mix starting tomorrow. That said, high temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast period with only a relatively slight cool down Friday and through the weekend.

The trough off the California coast will produce south to southwesterly flow in the upper levels over the forecast area. This will combine with the return of moisture and instability is expected to increase on Friday and Saturday. MUCAPE values could be around 500 J/kg to upwards near 1000 J/kg. Overall, Friday has the best potential for thunderstorms (possible severe) as bulk shear values reach 25-35 knots. The CAPE/shear combination may allow for a few updrafts to maintain which could produce strong erratic gusts/downburst and hail around 0.50"-1.00". This would be in addition to the threat of lightning.

Fire weather will need closer monitoring once the heat wave ends and fuels start to trend higher towards the 90th percentile and in some cases potentially the 97th percentile. This will become especially important on Friday with the threat of lightning over dry fuels.

-Guerrero

AVIATION...15/00Z TAFs

VFR levels are expected across most of northern California and southern Oregon through the TAF period. Gusty northerly winds continue north of Cape Blanco this afternoon, but these winds will ease into the evening. Marine clouds have reached Cape Blanco, and may bring periods of IFR or LIFR levels to Brookings. This layer will recede overnight. High level clouds look to arrive on Monday afternoon but will not impact flight levels. Gusty northerly winds are expected to return north of Cape Blanco on Monday afternoon. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Sunday, June 14, 2026

Gusty north winds will weaken temporarily today, but steep seas will linger for the outer waters as well as from Cape Blanco northward due to fresh swell and residual wind seas. A southerly wind surge of low clouds and fog today into tonight could bring reduced visibilities to areas south of Gold Beach and within 20 nm from shore.

The thermal trough quickly reforms Monday and Tuesday, bringing the return of strong north winds and steep seas. Seas may become very steep on Tuesday. This pattern is expected to continue through through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER (Updated at 2pm Today)

Fuel conditions are the main driver behind not issuing a Red Flag Warning. Based on conversations with fuel experts, fuel conditions are currently low enough to keep fire behavior low to moderate. However, conditions will be hot, dry, and breezy each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. This is in addition to gusty east winds and poor recoveries expected across area ridges and peaks through this same time period. This means elevated fire weather conditions will be present through early next week. As fuels likely become more receptive after the heatwave, fire behavior conditions may become high, and this would result in Red Flag Warnings when breezy/windy conditions are coupled with low RH. With the threat of lightning over dry fuels Friday and Saturday, we may need to consider warnings late next if conditions are warranted. Will continue to monitor fuels and the threat of lightning late next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ021-023>026-029.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.