textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

It's been a rather quiet day for the region as high pressure builds on the west coast. We saw some valley fog earlier Friday morning and that has cleared out as this afternoon. The big change from yesterday is the warm up in temperatures and the lowering of humidities. Temperatures top out in the upper 60's this afternoon and perhaps even 70 near Brookings on the coast.

As for tonight, valley fog is possible within the Umpqua Valley and Illinois Valley. Dewpoints are currently highest in the Umpqua valley. If they climb into the lower 40's this afternoon, then we'll likely see fog in that valley tonight. Otherwise, lower confidence in the Illinois and Applegate valleys with no fog expected in the Rogue Valley.

Aside from the fog, a thermal trough will remain in place along the coast through tonight into Saturday with light offshore flow. This should keep the mid slopes and some of the higher terrain warmer and drier overnight.

Temperatures will continue to warm into Saturday and Sunday with many valleys seeing mid to upper 70's west of the Cascades with areas farther east in the upper 60's to perhaps lower 70's on Sunday. Even with this warm up, we'll still be a few degrees short of high temperature records for April 4th and 5th.

The main weather feature Monday will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms over the higher Cascades and perhaps some lower elevations east and west of the Cascades. Looking at the ECMWF ensemble, it looks like every member is putting down some QPF somewhere across the region, although that could be showers instead of a thunderstorm. Model soundings show the highest amount of convective available potential energy(CAPE) in the high Cascades in Crater Lake with some of that energy around -10C to -20C. Therefore, it seems reasonable there could be some cloud to cloud or cloud to ground lightning Monday afternoon near Crater Lake.

The synoptic pattern continues to evolve by Tuesday as a cut low off the California coastline lingers ahead of a long wave trough and dryish cold front. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of precipitation on Tuesday, although that increases to 30 to 50 percent on Wednesday as the axis of the long wave trough swings through the forecast area, enhancing precipitation a bit.

Overall, pretty low impact weather through the near term into extended forecast.

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

By early this afternoon, expecting widespread VFR conditions across all terminals. We should maintain VFR conditions for a vast majority of this cycle; however, conditions may deteriorate along the coast (KOTH) and the Umpqua Basin (KRBG) where IFR conditions may develop tonight for limited visibilities and low clouds. Farther inland for both KMFR an KLMT there does appear to be enough dry air near the surface to limit this threat overnight.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Friday, April 3, 2026

North winds will continue to increase this afternoon as a thermal trough develops along the coast. As a result, gusty north winds are expected this afternoon south of Cape Blanco, then across all of the southern Oregon coastal waters by tonight. Gusty north winds and steep seas continue through tomorrow night, then relatively calm conditions are expected through early next week. However, another thermal trough develops bringing another round of strong north winds and steep seas by Tuesday afternoon and strengthening through at least Wednesday night.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.