textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Persistent low pressure this week brings seasonably active, beneficial weather with mainly low impacts.

* Beneficial rainfall mainly along and west of the Cascades through Tuesday. Snow levels lower to around 5000-5500 ft tonight, with a couple of inches of snow possible around the Diamond Lake/Crater Lake area...mainly through Tuesday morning.

* Temperatures trend cooler today, remaining steady through the week and fluctuating in a range from around 10 degrees below normal to near normal.

* Low pressure for Wednesday through Saturday brings continued shower chances, mainly for Coos and Douglas counties northward.

DISCUSSION

Upper level low pressure has moved in over the Pacific Northwest today, and some form of cyclonic flow will persist overhead through the rest of the week. This will result in near continuous shower chances for at least the coast and Umpqua Basin, with other areas seeing plenty of clouds and periods of light showers as individual systems pass by.

Widespread showers continue this afternoon, with some additional enhancement later tonight into Tuesday morning as the next impulse passes through. Snow levels of around 5000 feet will see little change through tonight, so any showers over the higher Cascade passes could produce some light accumulating snowfall, with total accumulations of only an inch or two likely. Once today's showers diminish, the east side will then remain mostly dry for the impulse tonight into tomorrow. Otherwise, activity will be focused in western Oregon along and west of the Cascades, and especially along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin.

Low pressure settles over the eastern Pacific/Pacific Northwest from Wednesday into the weekend. This low looks to linger just offshore for the remainder of the week, then elongate and sort of split Friday into Saturday. The northern portion of the energy lingers over the Canadian Providences while the southern portion swings through sometime Saturday/Sunday. With the low lingering just offshore, this leads to drier conditions persisting Thursday and Friday, and possibly into Saturday depending on how fast that southern tier of energy swings through. There are position differences, however, on how close to shore that low pressure lingers, so it's possible we see more showery weather continue during this time as well.

Currently, the forecast maintains a broad 20-40% chance of showers Thursday through Saturday. This is a fairly cool air mass settling into the region, and snow levels are forecast to hover around 4000 ft, even down to 3000 ft at times Thursday into the weekend. We're not anticipating widespread precipitation, however, so this will limit any wintry impacts. Light precipitation Friday night has the highest probability of being limited to the coast. Uncertainty increases a bit for the weekend. A slight chance to chance of showers follows for Saturday, with the ECMWF suite of solutions indicating a higher probability of west side focused rain, a sharper trough, than the GEFS. At this range, still expect the details and timing of rain chances to come into better focus with future model runs.

High temperatures this week will be fairly steady and average around 10-15 degrees below normal...highs in the mid 50s for the West Side, mid 40s for the East Side. Low temperatures will be quite chilly, especially east of the Cascades.

The outlook is for at least brief ridging early next week, Sunday into Monday, with dry conditions.

AVIATION...27/06Z TAFs

Showers will continue through the next 24 hours across the forecast area. IFR/MVFR are expected along the coast tonight into Tuesday morning. Widespread MVFR and local IFR are expected to develop late tonight into Tuesday morning from the Southern Oregon Cascades west, with local MVFR elsewhere. Mountain obscurations are likely early Tuesday afternoon. Showers will decrease in coverage after 2100 on Tuesday and conditions are expected to gradually lift to VFR.

MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Monday, October 26, 2026

Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue through the week. Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength. A series of seasonably weak disturbances will produce the strongest northwest winds in the Washington and northern Oregon offshore waters, which will push fresh swell into the southern Oregon waters. Wave heights will be just high enough and steep enough to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. Fresh west-northwest swell dominated seas continue for our area into Tuesday, and possibly through Wednesday night. The active pattern is expected to persist late in the week with slight, gradual improvement in conditions.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.