textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures remain 15 to 25 degrees below normal for today.

* Showers and thunderstorms will continue today with a moderate to heavy rain developing east of the Cascades.

* Shower chances will persist through Monday as an upper level low remains overhead.

* Normal September weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

DISCUSSION

The upper level wave is still situated offshore as of this morning as the cold front has progressed eastwards. In addition, we're watching some thunderstorms off the Oregon coast this morning in the SE quadrant of the upper level low. The SPC HREF is pretty confident these thunderstorms will continue through the morning hours and perhaps move onshore around Douglas and Coos Counties later this evening. The SPC HREF probability of cloud to ground lightning is about 10 to 20 percent while the NBM is going with 20 to 30. There is also a relatively low 10 percent chance over all other locations this afternoon as the sun should get some heating in above this cooler airmass. This will create some potential instability over the region this late afternoon and early evening.

The bulk of the rain will fall east of the Cascades through the day and this is an unusually large amount of rain in the ensemble forecast for this time of year. This is showing up in the extreme forecast index(EFI) product again with EFI values around 0.8 to 0.9 and some 0.95 over the Warners with a shift of tails of 2 over south central Oregon. This could be due some embedded convective elements in some ensemble members. There are no 2026 burnscars over the Warner Mountains, or we would go with a flash flood watch. However, this should be beneficial rain for locations east of the Cascades.

It will remain cool on the eastside with temperatures changing very little through the day due to extensive cloud cover and rain. Medford and some of our west side valleys should warm a bit with breaks in the clouds between the showers. However, we'll still remain 15 to 25 degrees below normal for this time of year. Klamath Fall's normal high is 82 and we're forecast a high of 57 and Medford's normal is 88 and we're forecasting 67 this afternoon.

It's pretty much rinse and repeat from Friday into Monday as the low wobbles around the Pacific Northwest keeping shower chances going with some low thunderstorm probabilities. However, QPF values will be lower compared to what was observed Wednesday and what is still left to observe through today, Thursday. The one thing does change are temperatures gradually warming up into the weekend as more sun must be reaching the ground in between the showers.

By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, things will continue to warm up and return to climatological normals for mid September. The ensemble forecasts hint at another system arriving around Friday. It actually looks like its the remnants of hurricane Marie currently spinning off the coast of Mexico at the moment. About 50% of the members show low amounts of QPF hitting us while the other 50% and dry. So still a lot to get sorted over the next few days and it's looking drier than what we went through on Wednesday.

-Smith

AVIATION

A cold front is graudally moving east of the Cascades tonight with showers filling in behind the front by Thursday. This will result in a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings, along with local IFR, in showers overnight and Thursday. Rainfall may also result in reduced visibilities at times, especially tonight and Thursday morning. Conditions will trend towards mainly VFR late Thursday afternoon and evening, except for continued MVFR along the coast. A chance for thunderstorms (15-25%) is also expected on Thursday, mainly along the coast, into the Umpqua Basin as well as along the Cascades and eastward. Thunderstorm chances are highest in the late morning and afternoon.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Thursday, September 3, 2026

South winds will remain gusty, strongest from Cape Blanco northward, and steep combined seas will continue across all the waters through Thursday night. Conditions improve further on Friday, with winds shifting to the north, then remain relatively calm through the weekend and into early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.