textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

(Today through Tuesday) Key Points:

* Rain: Chances increase starting Sunday - Rainfall greatest along/near the coast - Amounts generally decrease as you go east - Not expecting widespread hazards from rainfall

* Snow: Sunday night into Monday for higher elevations - Precipitation generally decreasing at this time - Snow levels dropping to 3500-4000 Sun night - Generally light amounts and no hazards expected at this time

* Wind: Breezy to isolated gusty winds for eastside on Sunday - At this time falling short of advisory conditions

Further Details:

This upcoming week will be noted by dry conditions and above normal temperatures. An area of high pressure which is part of a Rex Block over the western CONUS is centered over roughly Reno. This has helped bring copious amounts of sunshine to the area with several areas close to record high temperatures today and tomorrow. This Rex Block will start shifting east tomorrow and moreso Friday as an approaching trough comes in from the Pacific. Initially, a closed low will develop and go south of the area, but wont have much impact for our area other than breaking this pattern down. This will allow for a deeper and broader area of cyclonic rotation develop over the Gulf of Alaska. An associated front will sweep through the area Sunday into Monday and will bring in a more seasonable airmass. We will also see precipitation chances increase from west to east starting Sunday. Amounts will not be overly concerning outside of nuisance type ponding on roadways and slippery roads. That said, areas along and near the coast may see amounts around 1.00"-1.75" over roughly 36-42 hours. The probability for 1.00" of rainfall over any 24 hour period maxes out around 20%-70% with higher values southward across Curry County. That said, this will be a 36 to perhaps 42 hour event, but the 24 hour range is for context and highlights the higher amounts. Amounts significantly start to drop off as you go east with eastside areas missing out on a lot of this moisture, but totals could be upwards around 0.25" with isolated higher amounts near 0.50" across higher elevations. Light snowfall will mainly be confined to higher elevations across the Cascades north of Lake of the Woods, Mount Shasta, Marble Mountains, Trinity Alps, Warner Mountains, and similar elevations on the eastside. However, amounts do not look to warrant any hazards at this time mainly because precipitation will be diminishing as snow levels drop. The probability for 6.0" of snowfall in 24hrs maxes out around 25% for areas mainly around Crater Lake. Of note, this is a slightly less probability from about 24-48 hours ago. That said, we will take all the snow/rain we can get at this point given the lack of moisture this winter.

-Guerrero

AVIATION...05/06Z TAFs

VFR levels persist as stable atmospheric conditions remain over northern California and southern Oregon. Fog looks to return to the Umpqua Valley early Thursday morning, with clearing before the afternoon. Patchy fog is possible for the North Bend and Medford terminals, but significant development is not expected. VFR levels and normal diurnal winds are expected through the TAF period for other areas. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Steep west swell will persist through at least Thursday, then south winds and additional swell will increase through this weekend with the approach and arrival of a cold front. A front will produce increased south winds, steep seas, and low visibility conditions in rain this weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.