textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* A cold front will bring gusty winds to the region this afternoon into tonight.

* Temperatures trend cooler this weekend with frost in some valleys Saturday night and again Sunday night.

* The chance of showers remains low later tonight as the front moves through.

* The best chance of showers will be Saturday night in northern California as the low sits overhead.

* Temperatures trend warmer next week as high pressure builds.

DISCUSSION

We're watching a cold front slowly move through Oregon this afternoon with a very defined cloud shield around central and northern Oregon. As of writing this AFD, North Bend is seeing some heavier showers with 2SM of visibility, so some areas will likely see showers around Coos and Douglas Counties. We'll see temperatures trend lower compared to 24 hours ago, although they're still rather warm for October around Medford and northern California. Temperatures should be about 10 degrees lower to the north where the cold front is about to pass through.

There is the chance of some showers later tonight around the Siskiyou Mountains in Jackson County. The NBM has been relentless with putting a 20-30% chance of rain with a ~5% chance over the rest of the area. It seems the upslope flow up the Rogue Valley and perhaps some moisture could result in showers or drizzle later tonight. In any case, the 5-10% probability of rain seems more realistic through tonight.

The other thing to note is the air will remain unstable in the boundary layer later tonight. We think it will be gusty across the region with wind gusts 20 to 25 mph more likely than not overnight over many locations. The NBM has this strange peak in the wind speeds during this time with sustained winds up to 18 knots in Medford around midnight! However, the ECMWF ensemble doesn't really show that trend of increasing winds, so that is somewhat suspect. Lastly, the EFI does have values around 0.8 between 0Z Friday and 0Z Saturday, which would imply some stronger winds compared to the climatological October norm. Overall, no impacts anticipated as humidities are moving higher overnight, just pretty interesting to see that surge of winds in the forecast overnight.

By Saturday night into Sunday, we'll see the cooler air settle in with high temperatures in the lower 60's with some 50's scattered east of the Cascades. This is about a 25 to 30 degree drop compared to what we've been observing earlier this week. Given these colder temperatures and clearing skies, we decided to go with a frost advisory over Josephine and Jackson Counties. Locations east of the Cascades and within northern California have already seen frost a few times this year, so we kept them out of this frost advisory. We'll have to consider a freeze warning down there as Mt Shasta City hasn't frozen yet at the airport. One of the Co-op sites have reported a low of 30 earlier in September. However, this will be an even cooler airmass compared to September with slightly longer nights.

These cold temperatures will continue into Sunday night with more frost and freezing conditions west of the Cascades. The air will likely be very dry aloft as a thermal trough begins to build over southern Oregon. The GFS model is suggesting some lighter easterly flow and some very dry air building off the Cascades. Temperatures should begin to trend warmer on Monday, although they don't really spike higher as an upper level low remains overhead. The 5% chance of rain will be restricted to areas east of the Cascades.

High pressure will likely build back over the area with highs gradually climbing through the week and peaking by Friday in the lower 80's. Overall, no moderate or major weather impacts anticipated heading into next week.

-Smith

AVIATION...10/06Z TAFs

A cold front is moving southeast of the area tonight. Behind the front, areas of MVFR ceilings are expected tonight and early Saturday morning in the Umpqua Basin, Grants Pass area and banked up against the southern Oregon Cascades and Siskiyous. Elsewhere, expect mainly VFR. However, there is a low chance (10-20%) for local IFR/MVFR along the coast overnight and Saturday morning.

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Friday, October 9, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas continue across the area through this weekend. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest south of Port Orford. Occasional gale force gusts are possible just offshore of Brookings. Winds and seas begin to subside Monday, but steep seas are likely to continue into Monday night. Further improvement is likely to follow. Guidance continues to depict the arrival of the first west-northwest long period swell of the season over the weekend, likely originating from the northwestern Pacific near Japan. While the high energy swell is not expected to exceed 6 feet, the arriving swell of 1 foot at 27 seconds on Saturday will build to a peak at around 6 feet at 20 to 22 seconds later Sunday. This could produce dangerous bar conditions, heavier than normal surf, and abnormal currents. Swell will then very slowly diminish Monday into Tuesday, continuing at 4 to 6 ft while period lowers to 14 seconds. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, October 9, 2026

The first long period swell of the season begins to arrive Saturday night. Originating from a storm off the coast of Japan earlier this week, the west-northwests swell will arrive in the southern Oregon waters Saturday evening with a period over 25 seconds. Swell will then build through Sunday, peaking Sunday afternoon and evening at around 5 to 6 feet at 19 seconds. This very long period swell will result in a heightened chance for sneaker waves and run-ups of unusual size through Monday evening.

While the threat for sneaker waves will be persistent throughout Sunday and Monday, the highest risk is expected during periods of incoming tides. With high tides along the southern Oregon coast expected roughly around Noon to 1 PM, and again around Midnight to 1 AM, the highest risk for sneaker waves will be during the morning and late evening hours...especially during Sunday morning.

If visiting the coast Sunday or Monday, stay vigilant for incoming waves. Stay far away from the surf zone and never turn your back to the ocean.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

Frost Advisory from 11 PM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ024- 026.

CA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.