textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation for 06Z TAFs.

AVIATION...11/06Z TAFs

MVFR ceilings continue to impact the Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg. This will likely remain the case overnight, though ceilings may lower to IFR. With mid and high clouds moving northward in advance of low pressure near the California coast, we expect these to mostly prevent fog/low cloud development elsewhere west of the Cascades. However, satellite imagery is showing some LIFR fog/low clouds developing in the coastal valleys from the Coquille Basin to just inland from Reedsport. A little offshore flow at North Bend should keep it VFR there, but can't completely rule a few fog patches. It is also possible for some to develop in the Illinois Valley/Grants Pass region. But, in Medford, it looks like the mid-high level clouds will keep the temp/dewpoint spread a bit larger, so confidence is now higher that it will remain VFR through the night. There is even a small chance (10-20%) of sprinkles or a little light rain from those clouds. At Klamath Falls, ceilings dropped to MVFR as soon as the rain moved in this evening. It'll probably stay that way most of the night, but could lower to IFR at times, especially if wet snow can mix in around morning. Precip ends there tomorrow, and VFR should return in the afternoon. We think low clouds/fog will be a bit more widespread Wednesday night as high pressure builds in.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 500 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026/

DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...11/00Z TAFs...MVFR ceilings continue to impact Roseburg. Based on satellite trends, it doesn't appear they will lift to VFR prior to sunset. So, we've just maintained the lower conditions this evening and further lowered them to IFR after sunset. Another period of LIFR is likely overnight into Wednesday morning. All other valleys west of the Cascades cleared to VFR this afternoon. With mid and high clouds moving northward in advance of low pressure off the California coast, we expect these to mostly prevent fog/low cloud development elsewhere west of the Cascades. But, some could form in the coastal valleys and lower Rogue Basin. At Medford, confidence is a bit lower, since higher level clouds will be a bit thicker tonight compared to last night. In fact, there is a small chance (10-20%) of a little rain from those clouds. We hinted at patchy MVFR mist or scattered low cloud in the TAF, but think most of the time will be VFR. At Klamath Falls, we expect a little light rain to develop later this evening/overnight, which could mix with or even change to snow for a time before ending around 12z. This should lower ceilings/visibility from VFR this evening to MVFR during the overnight before lifting to VFR again Wednesday morning. At the coast, mostly VFR is expected due to light offshore flow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...

Key Points:

* Light snowfall tonight into Wednesday - Not expecting any hazards given the elevation of snowfall - Mainly Trinity Alps and Mount Shasta area

* Rain: Moderate to heavy rainfall starting this weekend - Rainfall greatest along/near the coast - Not expecting widespread flooding but roads could be hazardous - Increasing probability for activity to continue into next week

* Snow: Moderate to heavy snowfall starting this weekend - Potential widespread hazards for mountains/passes - Amounts: Uncertainty with snow levels, ratios, and moisture - Increasing probability for activity to continue into next week

* Wind: Strong winds this weekend - Wind advisories possible for northern California and eastside

Further Details:

A low is progged to move over northern California tonight into Wednesday before moving south and southeast in the mean flow. This pattern will bring light snowfall amounts to elevations mainly above 5000 feet. Not expecting any hazards as accumulations will be confined to higher mainly uninhabited areas. For rainfall, we will see amounts highest across northern California under this pattern later today into Wednesday, but widespread hazards are not expected through Wednesday. Some of these showers will spill over into southern Oregon, but overall only light amounts of rainfall expected. Thereafter, a brief break will begin Thursday into parts of Friday.

A stronger and deeper trough is progged to develop and impact the region starting this weekend. Snow levels have seen a large fluctuation with Saturday night now having higher levels. Previously, there was a chance for levels to be as low as 2500 feet, but current levels are around 3500-4000. Overall, the system has slowed down and hence we are not seeing the colder airmass infiltrate the region as early as previously forecast. Now we are seeing lower snow levels around 2500 feet Sunday night. In fact, we could see snow levels drop even lower Monday night into Tuesday with levels potentially around 1800 feet. Of course, Tuesday is outside the official 7 day forecast, but its worth noting as we could see an active period from this weekend through middle of next week. A lot of uncertainty exists especially Monday onward as the upper level pattern becomes very out of phase between various models. The bigger picture suggest we will have several rounds of rainfall/snowfall this weekend through middle of next week. Its difficult to separate these rounds into singular "events", but the thinking from a bigger picture perspective is we will see advisories and possibly warnings across the area for snowfall and strong wind speeds. Our goal the next couple of days is to refine the details, especially the "what, where, and when" across the area like impacts to highways/interstates (and passes), snow levels, ratios, and ultimately snowfall amounts. We are especially interested in early next week around Tuesday when snow levels could impact some valley floors (or near). A lot will (hopefully) become clearer over the coming days.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday, February 10, 2026...Gusty northerly winds are building very steep and hazardous seas are in the waters south of Cape Blanco beyond 10 nm of shore, with steep seas present in all other waters. Very steep seas are locally possible in outer waters between Cape Blanco and Coos Bay as well. Winds look to ease on Wednesday afternoon, with steep seas continuing in outer waters into early Thursday morning. A brief period of below advisory seas is possible until late Thursday or early Friday, when Northwest swell will bring elevated seas.

-TAD

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday, February 10, 2026...An incoming west to northwest long period swell will produce a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast from late Thursday night into Friday afternoon.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther up beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the cold open waters of the Pacific Ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through Friday morning for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ376.