textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)

Key Points:

* Widespread hazardous weather is not anticipated anytime soon

* Light precipitation chances late Tonight into Sunday - Coastal area: around 0.25"-0.50" - Remainder of southwest Oregon: less than 0.10" - South central Oregon and northern California: mostly dry

Further Details:

We remain in an overall uneventful pattern with 500mb cluster analysis continuing to show a dominate ridging pattern. That said, a low over the Gulf of Alaska will provide a brief change as a front moves through the area. We will see precipitation chances increase late tonight into Sunday morning from west to east across the area. However, this is a very progressive pattern, and ensemble data doesn't suggest any noteworthy rainfall. Areas along and near the coast could see around quarter of an inch to upwards near half an inch of rainfall. In typical fashion, Curry County will likely see the higher end of these amounts. High elevation snowfall (above 5500 feet) will be possible across the Cascades, but amounts will be less than an inch. Additionally, not expecting wind speeds to be a concern overall across the area.

The signal continues to indicate above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation chances will continue into early parts of February. While these brief periods of precipitation will be possible, we are not seeing any noteworthy events possible through the extended forecast. While we remain in a La Nina pattern, and we typical see more active weather in these ENSO patterns, this is actually not unheard of for La Nina years. Yes, these drier years tend to be outliers, but its not something that statistically can't happen in La Nina years. In fact, some of our drier years have occurred during La Nina years.

-Guerrero

AVIATION...01/00Z TAFs

VFR ceilings of mid and high level clouds will persist through Sunday morning. A very weak front will bring an increase of mid-level clouds to Coos, Douglas, Curry, and western Josephine counties late tonight into Sunday morning with virga and occasional light showers.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Saturday, January 31, 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of the waters through Monday evening, excepting the area within 15 nm of shore to the south of Gold Beach during the day today.

Slight improvement today will be brief, with moderate south winds and steep west swell. Winds increase with a frontal passage late tonight into early Sunday. High and steep seas will build to a peak Sunday night, but persist through Monday evening. Winds and seas are expected to diminish on Tuesday, then west swell dominated seas build and may become high and steep again for Wednesday through Friday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.