textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Low pressure dominates weather pattern this week, maintaining near normal/seasonable temperatures. Tues/Wed warmest days of forecast period.

* Gusty south to southwest winds expected again today for NorCal and East Side; daytime RHs trending higher by about 5% today.

* Wrap around moisture likely brings wetting rainfall and slight chance thunderstorms east of the Cascades Wed-Thurs; 0.25"-0.50" for Modoc/Lake Counties, 0.15"-0.25" for remainder of East Side to the Cascades. Little to no precip for areas west of the Cascades.

* Deeper trough likely (80% chance) over the weekend - below normal temperatures (mid 60s West, mid 50s East) and first chance of measureable rainfall for West Side Valleys since September 24th/25.

AVIATION...19/12Z TAFs

A weak front is passing through the region this morning, bringing widespread high clouds with lower and mid level clouds west of the Cascades. VFR conditions prevail for most areas, and will do so through the TAF period. The exception being along the coast where MVFR ceilings this morning will eventually lift to VFR by late morning. Some light rain is possible along the coast north of Cape Blanco this morning, and across western Siskiyou into Jackson County northward to Diamond/Crater Lakes this afternoon. Expect another round of gusty south to southwest winds this afternoon as well, strongest east of the Cascades and across northern California.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 335 AM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026/

DISCUSSION...Upper level low pressure is approaching the region this morning, and this will be the main weather player through much of the week. Before this low pressure moves inland, it will take a southerly turn this afternoon and move southward just offshore of the West Coast through Tuesday. This system will close off and linger off the California Coast through most of Wednesday, then gradually push inland late Wednesday into Thursday. This system gets swept eastward by another trough swinging through to the north Thursday into Friday. Models are in fairly good agreement in the overall pattern through Friday, though do have some differences in the finer details around midweek. Beyond Friday, model disagreement increases in the pattern evolution for the weekend with the GEFS suite maintaining more of a ridging/dry pattern and the EC suite showing a wetter/cooler scenario.

A weak front is moving into the region this morning ahead of the main low pressure system. This front won't amount to much for most of the area, but there is a slight chance for some light precipitation along the coast north of Cape Blanco this morning. Otherwise, increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures (5-10 degrees lower than yesterday) will be the main effects for most today. As low pressure turns southward this afternoon, guidance is showing a deformation band of precipitation developing along a line roughly from western Siskiyou County northward into Jackson County towards Diamond/Crater Lakes. Moisture with this band is fairly elevated, but it's possible (~15-20% chance) for some sprinkles or even a hundredth or two this afternoon. Another round of gusty south to southwest winds is expected again this afternoon in the Shasta Valley/northern California and across the East Side. While daytime RHs won't be quite as dry as yesterday, trending up by around 5%, there could still be some elevated fire weather concerns across Modoc/Lake Counties this afternoon.

Quiet conditions are expected tonight as low pressure moves farther southward. Southerly flow persists into Tuesday, even turning a bit southeasterly over the region. This will bring another day of breezy winds across northern California/East Side, this time winds will be from the south to southeast and generally weaker than what's anticipated this afternoon. If winds line up, we could even see some gusty southeast winds here in the Rogue Valley. Temperatures trend warmer by about 5 degrees on Tuesday, feeling more similar to what occurred this past weekend. Dry conditions are expected for much of the day Tuesday, but increasing moisture under south/southeast flow could bring some showers to portions of northern California late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday.

Low pressure pushes inland into California on Wednesday, and wrap around moisture will bring a more widespread potential for precipitation Wednesday afternoon/evening. Currently, the highest chances for precipitation (50-80% chance) is focused across eastern Siskiyou/Klamath Counties and much of Modoc/Lake County for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. 24-hour rainfall amounts (11 am Wed - 11 am Thurs) in these areas could reach between 0.25"-0.50" (possibly up to 0.75" in favored upslope areas of the Warners). There is some weak instability around Wednesday afternoon, so there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Modoc and southern Lake County. Precipitation chances drop to 20-40% for areas westward to the Cascades, then down to 10-15% for the western slopes of the Cascade Foothills and even less for points farther west. This event/pattern favors precipitation chances for northern California/East Side and drier conditions for the West Side.

Showers linger across the East Side into Thursday evening before this system finally gets swept eastward by a kicker trough from the northwest on Friday, bringing the return of dry conditions. Temperatures trend cooler on Thursday and Friday compared to Tuesday/Wednesday, hovering near to a few degrees below normal Thursday, then 5-10 degrees below normal on Friday. The equates to mid-low 60s for the West Side, mid-low 50s East.

High pressure over the eastern Pacific nudges eastward Friday, and this is when guidance diverges on the overall pattern progression. There are differences in how fast the trough progresses eastward, which influences if/when an upstream deeper trough arrives over the Pacific Northwest. About 20% of model solutions maintain a warmer/drier zonal flow this weekend, while 80% of the solutions have the trough either over the Pacific Northwest or just offshore. Currently the forecast supports the cooler solutions, maintaining high temperatures in the mid 50s-60s (East-West). Also, this will be the first opportunity for a more widespread rainfall for valleys west of the Cascades in nearly 4 weeks...the last measurable precipitation recorded in Medford/Roseburg was September 24th/25th. Some guidance brings this potential as early as Saturday morning, while the majority holds off until Sunday. Stay tuned as details become more clear in the coming days.

MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Monday, October 19, 2026...West- northwest swell dominated seas will gradually lower through early afternoon. Expect increasing south winds today as low pressure moves southward just offshore, but winds will remain below advisory criteria. Later this evening and overnight, another west- northwest swell (9-11 ft @12-13 seconds) will build into the waters, bringing steep seas for all areas. Winds gradually turn northerly late Monday into Tuesday, but again, are expected to remain below advisory criteria. Conditions improve for the inner waters by Tuesday afternoon, but steep seas linger for the outer waters south of the Cape Arago into Tuesday night. Thereafter, overall improved conditions are expected for the remainder of the week with sub- advisory north winds and light swell dominated seas. A weak thermal trough could return towards the end of the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.