textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...28/00Z TAFs

VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all locations except for areas from the Coast Range westward. Marine stratus returns to the coast tonight, resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions that will persist into Tuesday morning, then improve to VFR by Tuesday afternoon. Wildfire smoke impacts will be limited to areas north of roughly Crater Lake/Chemult/Christmas Valley. Expect a similar pattern for the next several days with gusty winds developing in the afternoons, then easing after sunset. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 233 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonal weather continues through the week, with a slight 5-degree warmup on Friday.

* East side areas may see early morning smoke accumulation, with afternoon breezes helping to clear that smoke out.

* Gusty winds over the Pacific Ocean, some inland areas are possible over the weekend.

DISCUSSION...An unimpactful weather pattern remains in place, keeping typical summer weather in the forecast for the week ahead. Southwest flow aloft between Pacific low pressure systems and a continental high pressure ridge shows little movement in the short term forecast. Flow aloft continues to look overall dry through the forecast period. There are a few minor details of interest through the week ahead.

Calm overnight conditions may allow for morning smoke accumulation in Lake and Klamath counties as well as parts of Modoc County. Daytime westerly breezes look to be enough to prevent constant accumulation, but this pattern does look to continue through at least Wednesday.

A shortwave trough remains in deterministic imagery for Thursday, as well as a slight increase in atmospheric moisture. Some ensemble imagery is showing isolated thunderstorm development east of the Cascades on Thursday afternoon. These members represent about 5% of the ensemble, so thunderstorm activity is hardly expected.

Daytime highs remain at seasonal norms across the area, with a slight 5-degree warmup expected on Friday. Forecast temperatures have crept up a degree or two, with parts of the Rogue and Shasta valleys possibly hitting 100 degrees. With overnight lows staying cool and daytime highs decreasing over the weekend, there's no expectation of Advisory-level conditions.

A low pressure system/upper trough looks to pass to the north of the area over the weekend. Atmospheric moisture remains low, keeping precipitation out of the forecast. Gusty northerly winds are expected to develop as this feature moves eastward. This is mostly a marine concern, but some inland areas may see these winds as well. Wind modeling this far out is coarse, but the ease side, coastal areas, and elevated terrain will likely see gusty winds. Depending on the wind's orientation, the eastern Rogue Valley (Shady Cove to Gold Hill to Ashland) as well as the Shasta Valley may see gusty winds as well. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Monday, July 27, 2026...Sub-advisory conditions under light south through westerly winds and low seas are expected to continue into the start of the week ahead. Seas will be a mix of fresh short period northwest swell and low long period south swell. Winds will shift to the north and increase over area waters on Tuesday afternoon, but currently steep seas look to be limited to Wednesday morning and afternoon south of Cape Blanco and within 30 nm from shore. For the the end of the week, localized areas of steep seas are possible in this area.

On Saturday, a low pressure system passing to the north may bring very strong northerly winds over area waters. The timing and strength of these winds are uncertain, given a range of model outcomes. Current forecast winds would make periods of steep to very steep and hazardous seas are possible through at least Sunday. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.