textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points: *Showers continue through Saturday night, with a measurable amount for most of southern Oregon and northern California. Amounts of 0.05 to 0.15 inches will be common. *Much cooler through early Monday, then gradual warming next week with temperatures reaching near normal values. A potential for frost/freeze on the east side on Sunday and Monday mornings, though limited by the absence of clear skies and calm winds. *Breezy afternoon and evening west to northwest winds for the next week, generally slightly stronger than typical. *A slight chance of late day thunderstorms for Lake County Oregon and Modoc County California today and Saturday, and a lesser though still slight chance of late day thunderstorms on Saturday for inland areas elsewhere (east of the Coast Range). *A skiff to an inch of snow at elevations above 6000 feet during Saturday and Saturday night. *Mostly dry Sunday into Thursday (highest probability of very light showers on Sunday near north facing slopes of southern Douglas County). *Stubborn coastal and west side low clouds Sunday through Monday morning, continuing for the coast and Umpqua Valley into Wednesday with some afternoon breaks of sun on Tuesday and Wednesday. *Uncertainty increases Thursday into Friday (Day 6/7), with the potential for another wet frontal system, but a higher probability for a weaker system focused north of our area.

Rainfall overnight has been mainly in southwest Oregon with amounts commonly around 0.05 inches to 0.30 inches. Showers have been more sporadic elsewhere, though activity has begun to become more widespread in the past couple of hours. In the big picture, an occluding front is moving inland and will continue across our area today and this evening. Showers continue tonight before the upper level trough axis and associated surface trough bring another up-tick in precipitation coverage on Saturday. A shortwave disturbance on the back side of the trough will continue showers Saturday night. Total event amounts are forecast at 0.05 inches to 0.75 inches, with a focus for highest amounts in Coos and Douglas counties. The upper level trough is expected to linger over Idaho on Sunday and could allow shortwaves in the continued northerly flow to produce lingering light showers to accompany low and mid- level cloud cover.

Very weak ridging is expected to nudge into our region Monday into Tuesday, followed by a weak trough on Wednesday with a widespread increase of high clouds to accompany the west side night and morning low clouds. Meantime, the next stronger disturbance will be along the southern coast of Alaska on Wednesday. Models have a wide variation in the track and ability to maintain the strength of this disturbance. At the least, it will reinforce the high level cloud cover and keep our area near or slightly below normal temperatures. At its most likely, it will bring rain to Washington and northern Oregon. But, a definite minority of ensemble model solutions (about 10%) as well as the operational GFS would bring rain chances into our area late in the week.

AVIATION...26/12Z TAFs

A front moving onshore will continue to bring light rain with IFR to LIFR conditions along the coast this morning, with a slight lifting of ceilings to mainly IFR and additional showers this afternoon into this evening.

Inland, MVFR ceilings and local IFR have spread into the Umpqua Valley. Rain will persist through this morning, gradually lifting with a mix of MVFR/VFR in showers this afternoon. Elsewhere, areas will remain mainly VFR today except for local MVFR west of the Cascades. Areas of mountain obscurations, especially the Cascades, will also persist into tonight. Gusty afternoon and evening west to northwest winds are expected, with strongest winds east of the Cascades (gusts 20 to 30 mph).

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Friday, June 26, 2026

Winds remain relatively weak today through Saturday night, while a frontal system brings periods of light rain. But, stronger winds in the offshore waters will bring a steep, fresh west-northwest swell Saturday into Sunday.

Northerly winds will then be stronger early next week, especially south of Gold Beach. This includes a potential for gales in the southern waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ370-376.