textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Widespread hazardous weather is not anticipated the next week

* Precipitation chances mainly west of the Cascades the next week - Not seeing any noteworthy precipitation amounts - Next chance for widespread precipitation is Sun into Mon

* Long range forecast continues to show warm and dry weather

Further Details:

While precipitation chances exists today/tonight and into tomorrow, areas to the north of our forecast will likely see the better chances and accumulations. In other words, not expecting much across our forecast area in terms of QPF. In fact, precipitation in general is not looking good this week. We don't see probabilities become noteworthy until Sunday into Monday. However, we have seen this song and dance recently with precipitation coming to light in the extended forecast, only to be removed/diminished once we get into the short/near term. Persistence will likely be key going forward, and ensemble data continues to show ridging favored in the upper levels through early February.

Broken record alert...all jokes aside, cluster analysis of 500mb continues to indicate ridging aloft will be favored through Day9 over the PacNW. Guidance from the Climate Prediction Center (as of today - 1/28) continues to indicate in their 8-14 day outlook (Feb 5th-11th) a very strong signal for above normal temperatures in addition to a strong signal for below normal precipitation. This has been a consistent forecast trend the last several days, so confidence is high for this scenario across the forecast area.

-Guerrero

AVIATION...29/00Z TAFs

VFR levels are present across northern California and southern Oregon under either mid- to high-level clouds or clear skies. Westerly flow aloft or a weak front may bring occasional light showers to the coast, over Douglas County, or along the Cascades. West side valleys may see some patchy fog late tonight into early Thursday morning. While showers or fog may periodically lower flight levels in a localized area, overall VFR levels are expected to continue through the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PST Wednesday, January 28, 2026

A series of offshore fronts will maintain unsettled conditions over the marine waters through late this week. South winds are expected to remain at or above advisory strength, strongest north of Cape Blanco. This will maintain some steep wind seas which will combine with with a series of larger west swells to bring steep to very steep seas at times. Conditions may briefly improve Friday night into Saturday, but another front could bring stronger south winds and steep seas again late Saturday into Sunday. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ370.