textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation and marine discussions.

AVIATION...11/18z TAFs

We have reached the time of year where the low sun angle is a significant factor in the sustainability of low clouds/fog in the valleys west of the Cascades. Much like yesterday, strong high pressure is in control and satellite imagery is showing plenty of low-level moisture with stratus/fog in just about every inland valley below 2500 feet. Moisture is deeper farther north (Roseburg), so it is mainly an MVFR ceiling there, but there is also some low-level wind (from the east) that can be seen breaking up the stratus in the latest imagery. We think it will break out to a scattered stratocumulus deck there (Roseburg) this afternoon, at least for a few hours. Farther south, the ceiling is IFR at Medford and isn't showing signs of breaking any time soon. We'll maintain the stratus through the TAF period there, perhaps with slight rise to low MVFR this afternoon. Valleys south of the Siskiyous (Shasta/Scott/Klamath) should see some erosion of the fog, but it probably won't go away completely. Elsewhere, east side areas are VFR (inclduing Klamath Falls) and should remain that way through the TAF period. Some MVFR at the coast north of Cape Blanco breaks up this afternoon.

West side valley areas that break from the low clouds/fog this afternoon will likely see them return this evening/overnight. Some areas won't break at all and low conditions will persist. Conditions are more likely to be IFR/LIFR tonight as the moist layer should be somewhat shallower than the last couple of nights. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 830 AM PST Thursday, December 11, 2025

We extended the small craft advisory until 1 pm PST this afternoon since buoy observations are still showing seas of 10-11 feet/15 seconds. These conditions should improve late today into Saturday as high pressure builds and seas lower. Winds will become northerly late this afternoon and persist into Saturday morning but wind speeds are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels.

The next big weather concern will be around Monday as a low deepens out in the Pacific and models are showing a cold front swing through the waters to our north. Right now, southerly gales are looking more probable than not around 60 to 70 percent. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 918 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows low clouds confined to the Rogue, Illinois, Scott, Klamath River, Shasta Valleys, and portions of the Umpqua Basin this morning. The low clouds and never broke out in the Illinois and Rogue Valley yesterday and it's possible it does not break out again in these areas today, but there's enough evidence to suggest the low clouds should burn off early this afternoon and have trended the forecast in that direction. Also have not seen any reports or web cams showing fog and have removed it from the forecast. The exception will be in the Scott and Shasta Valleys, where fog is present, but the fog should lift to a lower overcast towards midday.

It will be dry today through the weekend and strong upper ridging remains in place. This means a continuation of dry and stable conditions, therefore we will likely have a repeat of low clouds and perhaps fog in the same areas as the last couple of days. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-370.