textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Clouds continue to stream across the area this morning, with a few showers showing up along the Coos and Douglas county coasts and in portions of northern Douglas County. The majority of our forecast area will remain under high pressure as a strong atmospheric river hits locations in Washington and northern Oregon. These coastal areas and locations in Douglas County will see these light showers continue through today and into Thursday with minimal accumulations. By Thursday Morning, North Bend could get a quick 0.15 inches of precipitation, although it will mostly be a few hundreths here and there.

With the strong zonal flow, we were watching the wind threat east of the Cascades around Summer Lake and other terrain east of the Cascades. 700 mb wind flow is approaching 50 knots in northern Lake and Klamath counties. However, upper air soundings show modest mixing and don't mix up to 700 mb. We should see a fair amount of wind gusts around the 35 to 45 mph range, but anything above 45 should be few and far between. Therefore, we opted not to issue a wind advisory Wednesday or Thursday, however it could be close at times.

Eventually, a cold front will push into central Oregon resulting in some pretty impressive temperature gradients across the region. Currently, the NBM is forecasting a high of 68 in Medford and perhaps some lower 70's in California while temperatures will be in the mid 50's around Salem. The air will be drier as this front moves down from the north, so precipitation will be spotty and pretty light across the region.

Eventually, a 500 mb ridge will build across the region late Sunday into Monday with heights reaching 590dm in northern California. This will lead into some unusually warm temperatures for southern Oregon and northern California for most of next week.

The maximum temperature extreme forecast index(EFI) is showing 0.8 over large areas within northern California and southern Oregon. Therefore, we have high confidence in this warm up next week between days 6 and 10. Right now, we're forecasting highs in the mid to upper 70's for many locations with a 5 to 15% chance of hitting 80 here in Medford on Monday and Tuesday. We'll have to keep an eye on the high temperature records, although it looks like Alturas and Montague will be at risk on the 16th. Overall, not good for whatever snow pack is left. -Smith/BPN

AVIATION...11/12Z TAFs

The next 24 hours will bring fairly benign weather with the main storm track focused in NW Oregon and Washington. However, stronger winds aloft are blowing perpendicular to the Cascades and Warner Mtns (westerly component) and could bring some mid-level mountain wave activity with areas of turbulence near higher terrain and also during ascent/decent into the terminals. This is also leading to some mid and high level VFR altocumulus/altostratus. WSW winds will be locally gusty along the coast north of Cape Blanco and over the East Side this afternoon/evening (25-35 kt).

The only place where moisture could be deep enough to support precipitation (and the potential for MVFR ceilings) will be at the coast north of Cape Blanco and also perhaps across northern Douglas County. Even in those areas, showers will be mostly hit-or-miss throughout the day today. Ceilings will mostly waver between MVFR/VFR. Shower chances shift northward late this afternoon/evening.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Steep west- northwest swell will persist into Wednesday. South to southwest winds become gusty, especially north of Cape Blanco Wednesday into Wednesday night as a front stalls to the north. This will maintain hazardous conditions north of Cape Blanco, with steep seas north of Cape Blanco and very steep seas north of the Umpqua River bar. While conditions improve by Thursday evening, the front will move back southward and could bring a period of gusty southwest winds and steep seas Friday and Friday night followed by a wind shift to northerly by Saturday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.