textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)

A solid marine layer continues along the coast resulting in IFR conditions for North Bend where AWOS data is still having issues transmitting out. Expecting these conditions to remain in place overnight, but we could see conditions improve tomorrow afternoon to VFR. Otherwise, expecting a mostly VFR cycle for inland TAFs with one caveat. There may be just enough moisture in the lower levels to have some low clouds develop overnight for Roseburg, but confidence was not high enough to result in any categorical changes outside of VFR at this time. Hinted at this possibility with a scattered deck, but we may need to reevaluate if conditions warrant.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 436 PM PDT Mon Apr 6 2026/

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...

A solid marine layer is present along the coast resulting in IFR conditions for North Bend where AWOS data is still having issues transmitting out. Expecting these conditions to remain in place overnight, but we could see conditions improve tomorrow afternoon to VFR. Otherwise, expecting a mostly VFR cycle for inland TAFs with one caveat. There may be just enough moisture in the lower levels to have some low clouds develop overnight, but confidence was not high enough to result in any categorical changes outside of VFR at this time. Hinted at this possibility with a scattered deck, but we may need to reevaluate this in subsequent TAFs.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM PDT Mon Apr 6 2026/

DISCUSSION...Warm temperatures continue today across the area, especially in valleys west of the Cascades. With a generally zonal flow pattern in place, little activity is expected today. SPC guidance shows some isolated thunderstorms are possible over northern Lake and Klamath counties this evening. Cumulus development over elevated terrain shows that the moisture is present. Model CAPE values for these areas are in the 150-200 J/kg range, which is enough to support some development but not entirely threatening. Chances for thunderstorms drop quickly into the evening.

Temperatures cool slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday but remain 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. A low pressure system passing to the northeast will allow for some higher winds over elevated terrain on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Terrain east of the Cascades may see gusts of 15 to 25 mph, which is safely below Advisory levels but is still work acknowledging. Otherwise, Tuesday looks to be an uneventful day. The upper pattern starts to change on Wednesday as a low pressure system approaches the west coast. Southerly flow around the periphery of the system will allow for some slight thunderstorm chances in southern Lake and Modoc counties on Wednesday evening, with showers possibly continuing into the night.

Activity on Thursday and Friday will be guided by the position and approach of the Pacific low. The low itself looks to drift south and move inland over California. Stronger southerly flow is forecast to push more moisture up to the area, bringing moderate shower chances to most areas. Most areas have a 30-40% chance of showers through Thursday and Friday, with the Siskiyou Mountains and Cascades having higher 50-60% chances. Snow levels remain high, generally in the 7500-8500 range, minimizing winter concerns. Rainfall amounts are unimpactful, with Siskiyou County and Cascades peaks currently forecast to see 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rainfall across the two days. Lower elevations are expected to see 0.33 inches or less. Instability may bring some thunderstorm activity to parts of Siskiyou County, but confidence in these chances are slight.

Activity remains in the forecast past Friday, but long-term solutions start to diverge for the weekend and into next week. Most guidance supports further cooling, with daytime highs approaching seasonal norms. ECMWF guidance brings a low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska over the area, while the GFS keeps this second low to the west then to the south. NBM probabilistic guidance is leaning towards supporting snowfall, with 40-60% chances of 1 inch of snowfall along the Cascades for Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF outcome might also bring stronger winds over terrain. Long-term meteograms for both models show some agreement in unimpactful precipitation continuing further into the week, but the timing and amounts vary. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday, April 6, 2026...Relatively calm conditions are expected through tonight. Fog and low clouds will persist over the waters today into Tuesday morning. A weak thermal trough develops on Tuesday, resulting some gusty north winds that will create borderline advisory level seas Tuesday through Wednesday. The thermal trough weakens on Thursday as the upper level pattern transitions. A trough approaches the California coast on Thursday, then shifts southward over the weekend. This will continue the pattern of low pressure inland and high pressure offshore, resulting in periods of increased north winds and steep seas with borderline advisory conditions possible through the end of the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.