textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Low impact weather expected through the forecast period.

* Temperatures trend warmer through the week, peaking around 10-15 degrees above normal over the weekend.

* Slight chance of thunderstorms east of the Cascades on Sunday.

* No signal for widespread precipitation for the next 7-10 days.

DISCUSSION

The upper level pattern will largely be ridge dominated through the week and into the weekend. Skies are clear across the region this afternoon, and with a strengthening thermal trough along the coast, skies should remain clear for the area even through tonight. Offshore flow should keep the marine layer from redeveloping tonight, but there could be some patchy areas of fog in the lower river valleys of the Coquille/Umpqua Basins. High temperatures trend a few degrees warmer today, and the Chetco Effect will bring warm temperatures to the Brookings area this afternoon.

High pressure lingers off the California coast today, then gradually shifts inland Thursday and eventually settles over the Desert Southwest by the weekend. For the remainder of the week, our area will remain on the northern periphery of this high pressure with zonal flow aloft. Heights will subtly build through the week, bringing a warming trend in afternoon temperatures. High temperatures will hover around 5-10 degrees above normal through the rest of the week, which brings mid-upper 80s for the West Side and upper 70s/low 80s for the East.

Weak low pressure approaches the area over the weekend. As this happens, the ridge axis becomes positively tilted over the region Saturday, and high temperatures peak over the weekend, trending higher by around another 5 degrees. This pushes highs in the lower 90s for the West Side and mid 80s for the East. These high temperatures are quite warm for this time of year, and glancing at records across the region for 10/3-10/5, we're certainly in the realm of record setting territory. Even if we aren't breaking records, it's looking like temperatures could be within a few degrees of records for those dates. High temperatures peak on Sunday, then trend cooler by a few degrees on Monday in the wake of a weak low pressure.

The flow aloft becomes more southerly on Sunday, and the weak low pressure moves overhead. This could bring a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms to the area, most likely east of the Cascades. Current forecast keeps this mention out of the forecast for now, but the pattern is favorable for thunderstorm development on Sunday if it pans out. Latest guidance is maintaining these chances across southern areas, so mainly Modoc and southern Klamath/Lake Counties.

High temperatures trend a few degrees cooler behind this weak low pressure for the early part of next week, but the upper level ridge rebounds quickly late Tuesday into Wednesday. Long term guidance is showing this ridge sticking around through much of next week (week of Oct 5th), which maintains above normal temperatures and dry conditions through then.

AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs

A mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings from marine stratus persist in the Umpqua/Coquille Basins and over the marine waters, with VFR prevailing for inland locations. Marine stratus is eroding and will clear for all areas between 18z-20z with VFR prevailing thereafter. VFR will prevail through the TAF period for just about all areas. Offshore flow should keep the marine layer from returning tonight. Couldn't rule out some patchy LIFR conditions in the deeper river valleys along the coast/Umpqua Basin, but terminals should remain VFR through the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, September 29, 2026

A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast today, then expand northward on Thursday. Steep seas will persist south of Cape Blanco today, with very steep seas developing south of Gold Beach and beyond 5 nm from shore this afternoon/evening. As the thermal trough expands northward, steep seas will spread north to around Coos Bay Thursday, with very steep seas persisting through Thursday night. Winds ease some Friday, but steep seas will persist from Coos Bay southward. As the thermal trough moves inland over the weekend, expect conditions to improve some, especially for the inner waters. Not much change in the overall weather pattern is expected next week, so gusty north winds and steep seas are likely to be present well into next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.