textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm temperatures will persist through the week with new high temperature records being set over some stations.

* A cold front pass through the area Friday into Friday night with breezy winds and a very low chance of rain.

* Much cooler temperatures are then expected through the weekend with below normal overnight lows, and could produce widespread frost for valleys west of the Cascades.

DISCUSSION

A broad upper-level ridge remains in control over the western United States, with well above normal temperatures continuing for southern Oregon and far northern California. Heat will peak today, and with high temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above normal, several record daily high temperatures could be tied or broken, particularly at Mount Shasta City and Medford, where forecast highs are within a degree of the standing records. In other words, summer refuses to let go of our region, despite the date on the calendar.

On Thursday, upper-level ridge flattens slightly, but temperatures remain well above normal, and we could see a few more tied or broken records.

Things finally start to change Friday. A deep trough will dig south out of northwestern Canada, pushing a cold front through the area by Friday night.Increasing clouds and lower heights aloft will help push temperatures 5 to 10 degrees lower Friday, but a lack of moisture inflow will likely keep the frontal passage mostly dry. That is not to say the whole area will miss out on rain, as there are some chances of light precipitation along the coast and coastal ranges, and along the western slopes of the Cascades and the northern slopes of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide and the Siskiyous, where upslope flow could wring out a few hundredths of an inch of rain. We'll see if Ashland and the Siskiyous see rain while Medford stays dry.

By Saturday, the front will be past and the upper level trough will pass overhead. The temperature drop will be notable, around 20 to 30 degrees lower than Thursday, and push us to 'fall' like weather. With the trough overhead, some weak instability is possible, so a few light showers are not out of the question for southern Lake and Modoc Counties Saturday afternoon.

The cooler fall like weather will continue into early next week, with overnight lows approaching freezing in areas west of the Cascades Sunday and Monday mornings. As a result, the first widespread frost of the season is looking more likely for the Rogue, Illinois, and Applegate valleys. This is not a sure thing, however, as the overhead trough could produce a blanket of clouds, keeping overnight temperatures warmer than expected. We will keep an eye on this for any lingering agricultural interests, including those last-minute backyard tomato harvests.

AVIATION...07/12Z TAFs

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue along the coast and portions of the coastal waters through this morning, including at North Bend (KOTH). Most areas should clear by late morning or early afternoon, but some areas may not fully clear before widespread LIFR conditions return this evening, mainly north of Cape Blanco and from Brookings south.

Inland, expect mainly VFR through the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, October 7, 2026

A persisting thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the rest of the week. As typical in these patterns, the strongest winds and highest seas will be south of Cape Blanco, with very steep seas expected from Gold Beach southward. Winds will be strongest during the afternoons/evenings and very steep seas will return daily during the evenings and overnight periods. Fluctuations in the thermal trough could bring very steep seas northward to around Bandon late Wednesday into Thursday, but the overall pattern will change very little until late week/into the weekend.

A cold front will pass over the southern Oregon waters Friday into Saturday, disrupting the thermal trough and producing a slight chance of showers. North winds will continue, but will weaken. Guidance continues to depict the arrival of the first long period swell of the season over the weekend, likely originating from a storm currently off the coast of Japan and the active tropics. While swell is not expected to exceed 6 or 7 feet, the swell will arrive with a period of 20 to 25 seconds, which could produce dangerous bar conditions and the heaviest surf so far this season.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ376.