textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Low impact weather expected this weekend and through much of next week.

* Cooler than normal temperatures continue today, returning to seasonable values this weekend and through next week. High temperatures peak around 5-10 degrees above normal on Sunday.

* Dry conditions expected through at least Thursday next week. Next chance for precipitation possible next weekend (9/25-9/27).

DISCUSSION

Upper level low pressure continues to spin over eastern Oregon this morning, and northerly flow on the back side of this low pressure is maintaining some isolated shower activity east of the Cascades. Skies are clear for areas from the Cascades to the Coast Range, and the marine layer blankets the coast and coastal waters. Marine stratus will continue pushing inland this morning, eventually making it into the Umpqua Basin shortly before sunrise. Otherwise, status quo is expected through the morning hours today.

After bringing almost 1700 lightning strikes to the region since late Tuesday, low pressure will shift eastward into western Idaho this afternoon. Isolated showers east of the Cascades will diminish by late morning/early afternoon as this happens and clouds will gradually dissipate across the East Side. The marine layer will gradually peel back to the immediate coast later today as well, so expect a mostly sunny to sunny day across the forecast area this afternoon. High temperatures trend warmer today, more noticeably so for areas that were under persistent cloud cover yesterday, but still hover around 3 to 7 degrees below normal (low-mid 80s West Side/low 70s East Side).

Low impact weather is expected throughout the forecast period at this time (through early Friday 9/25). Dry conditions are expected through this time with near to slightly above normal temperatures (mid 80s West/upper 70s East). Shortwave ridging passes through the region this weekend, maintaining the warming trend and bringing the warmest temperatures of the forecast period. Highs peak in the upper 80s-low 90s for the West Side/upper 70s-low 80s for the East. Weak low pressure moves into central/southern California Monday, weakening and pushing the ridge eastward and turning the flow zonal by Tuesday.

The flow amplifies again toward the latter half of next week as upper level troughing deepens over the eastern Pacific and high pressure strengthens over the interior CONUS. As to be expected at this timeframe in the forecast, there is disagreement on the placement of the ridge/trough set up, but longer range guidance is pointing to at least some precipitation potential (15-20%) along the coast as early as Thursday night or Friday. At this time, chances for precipitation farther inland quickly drop off. Beyond that, ensembles are hinting at a wetter and cooler pattern taking hold for the last week of September, though details like precip amounts and inland extent remain yet to be seen.

AVIATION...18/12Z TAFs

A mix of IFR/MVFR conditions under marine stratus will persist through the morning along the coast and over the coastal waters. Expect the marine layer to lift to MVFR later this morning, then eventually peel back to the immediate coast by this afternoon, bringing at least a brief period of VFR conditions for coastal locations. Inland, MVFR conditions are developing in the Umpqua Basin but should clear to VFR by around 18z.

Recent moisture is bringing a variety of conditions to the remaining inland areas. Satellite is showing some low clouds developing in the Rogue Valley at this early hour, so a brief period of "sunrise surprise" IFR conditions is possible at the Medford terminal this morning. East of the Cascades, low clouds have developed in portions of the Klamath Basin, and a brief period of LIFR conditions in fog is expected at Klamath Falls terminal through sunrise. Higher level cloud cover associated with a departing low pressure persists east of the Klamath Basin with isolated showers that will diminish later this morning.

The general trend today will be for improving conditions for all areas to VFR, with VFR prevailing through the afternoon/early evening. Expect the return of IFR/MVFR ceilings along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin late this evening and overnight.

MARINE...Updated 1200 AM PDT Friday, September 17, 2026

Light northerly winds and low seas will persist through tonight. Gusty north winds return Saturday with steep seas likely developing south of Cape Blanco by late Saturday evening into Sunday, possibly reaching as far north as Coos Bay or Reedsport. North winds and wind driven seas are likely to build to a peak Monday, and remain near that level on Tuesday, with gales possible south of Cape Blanco. Conditions look to improve for the latter half of next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.