textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Typical summer weather is expected today and Sunday.

* Gusty southerly winds are bringing elevated fire weather concerns for the Scott and Shasta valleys and areas east of the Cascades on Monday. Winds ease on Tuesday, but warm temperatures continue.

* A cold front looks to bring cool temperatures across the area. Rainfall is expected west of the Cascades, with lower chances just east the Cascades. Precipitation chances decrease into Thursday and beyond.

DISCUSSION

A trough around a cutoff low is helping to bring slightly cooler temperatures across the area today, as well as elevated afternoon breezes. This trough is bringing some partial cloud cover into Coos and Douglas counties, but rainfall is not expected. The trough will move eastward into Sunday, bringing typical summer conditions.

Temperatures look to rise a few more degrees on Monday, which looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period. An approaching shortwave trough is expected to bring elevated winds in the afternoon and evening. These winds overlap with ongoing dry conditions, bringing fire weather concerns. These concerns are especially high in the Scott and Shasta valleys as well as across broad areas east of the Cascades. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these areas on Monday afternoon and evening to highlight the chance of critical fire weather conditions.

With the shortwave trough drawing closer on Tuesday, daytime highs are forecast to drop 5 to 10 degrees for inland areas. Elevated afternoon breezes are expected again, but improving humidities and lower wind speeds reduce fire weather concerns from Monday. Model guidance is showing some chances for isolated thunderstorms, mostly along the Cascades and into western Siskiyou County. However, atmospheric moisture looks patchy and current CAPE values are unimpressive (100-200 J/Kg). This keeps thunderstorm chances low (5- 15%), but the possibility is worth watching.

A pattern change is expected on Wednesday, with a wet cold front following that shortwave trough. Daytime highs could be 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms on Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall is most likely on Wednesday, with west side areas having 70-90% chances in the afternoon into early Thursday morning. These chances drop east of the Cascades, with Klamath Falls having 60% chances of measurable rainfall on Wednesday night while 30-50% chances get into Lake and western Modoc counties. For Wednesday morning into Thursday morning, Curry County could see 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall. Coos and northern Douglas County are forecast to see about an inch of rain. The Illinois and Umpqua valleys

The details for Thursday and beyond lose some clarity. An upper trough around a low pressure system lingers over the area, which is what will keep temperatures cool on Thursday. In general, precipitation looks to continue on Thursday, but at lower chances (20-40%) and lighter amounts. Modeled "wobbling" in the system is keeping those slight chances spread across the area, making a more exact forecast difficult. Similarly, lingering slight precipitation chances on Friday and Saturday depend on the behavior of that low. A drier pattern may be in place to start the following week. -TAD

AVIATION...29/18Z TAFs

While some mid- and upper-level clouds are moving over parts of southern Oregon, ceilings look to stay at VFR levels through much of the TAF period. Periods of gusty winds are possible for most areas this afternoon, with winds easing into the evening. Onshore flow may bring periods of MVFR to LIFR ceilings to coastal areas, with a slight chance of these ceiling reaching into the Umpqua Valley near sunrise. These ceilings look to clear out near the end of the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT Saturday, August 29, 2026

North winds are increasing, with steep seas south of Port Orford. These steep seas and gusty winds will persist through the weekend, with steep seas extending into the waters north of Cape Blanco from late Sunday morning into Monday morning. Winds will be strongest each afternoon and early evening through Sunday. Conditions are likely to improve Monday into Tuesday. A pattern change looks to bring marine showers, gusty winds, and westerly swell for Wednesday and Thursday. Some amount of unsettled seas is expected, but additional guidance will help to determine the timing and areas of any needed hazard products. -TAD

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, August 29, 2026

Gusty winds and dry humidities near critical levels will continue east of the Cascades early this evening. Sunday will be a relative lull in activity as a ridge briefly builds in with warmer temperatures and lower minimum humidities, but much weaker winds. As a trough approaches from the west, conditions are then likely to reach critical levels Monday in the Scott and Shasta valleys and east of the Cascades due to gusty winds and dry humidities.

A trough dominated pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. Winds will be gusty again on Tuesday and Wednesday, but with humidities trending higher and the start of a cooling trend. On Tuesday into Saturday, there is a good chance for periods of rain, especially on the west side with a focus on Wednesday and Thursday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for ORZ624.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for CAZ280-281-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.