textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Night and morning low clouds and fog (patchy light drizzle) at the coast north of Cape Blanco, and locally from Gold Beach south this morning and again tonight/Monday morning.

* Inland high temperatures well above normal (10-20 degrees) through Thursday. Heat Risk is elevated for sensitive groups or those spending extended time outdoors without adequate cooling/hydration.

* Very warm and dry conditions bring elevated fire weather concerns due to near summer-like dryness. But, with weak winds, critical fire weather conditions are not expected. * A weak upper level disturbance moves in Sunday night and early Monday morning with an increase of high clouds. For Modoc County...some virga along with a low chance (~5%) for showers and a very low chance (<5%) of thunderstorms.

* Late next week, Friday into Saturday, gusty SW->NW winds accompany a cold front with a 10-25% probability of rain showers. Temperatures trend sharply lower, getting back to near or perhaps even below normal values by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

A ridge of high pressure will remain over the area through Thursday bringing well above normal temperatures (10 to 20 degrees above normal) to inland areas. Along the coast, cooler temperatures with periods of overnight/morning low clouds or fog are expected, especially today and Monday.

With this ridge pattern in place, expect dry humidities for the ridges during the nighttime periods through Thursday. Winds will remain light though. During the day, low humidities in the teens are expected in the afternoons, especially for areas from the Cascades east and across northern California but also into valleys in Josephine and Jackson counties. Winds will be generally light through Thursday. So, we are not expecting critical fire weather conditions.

Heat and dryness are the main concerns this week. With the late- summer like temperatures and dryness, dry grasses and leaves will be present in many areas. Please be cautious if you're planning any activities that could create a spark. Additionally, the above normal temperatures this weekend will bring elevated HeatRisk to inland areas. HeatRisk is generally in the minor category, or elevated for those sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration. If you are sensitive to heat or spending extended time outdoors, take precautions. Seek shade and stay hydrated. Overnight/morning temperatures are expected to lower in the mid-50s for valleys west of the Cascades and in the 40s for valleys east of the Cascades which will help moderate HeatRisk.

It is worth noting, the high pressure does weaken slightly tonight and early Monday as a weak shortwave moves into Northern California and another shortwave trough moves inland well to the north. With the shortwave moving into Northern California, expect some high clouds to move into the area this afternoon and tonight. Model guidance continues to show a potential for virga with isolated high based showers late tonight and early Monday morning in Modoc. There is a very low chance (3-5%) for showers or thunderstorms as well for Modoc. Otherwise, this will bring little change and the high pressure strengthens again late Monday and Tuesday then remains in place into Thursday.

By the end of the week and into next week, expect a change towards cooler weather. Friday into next weekend, models are showing a decided end to the hot pattern with virtually all ensemble members showing a significant cooling trend, perhaps even sharply cooler (by Saturday). A strong upper trough and cold front will move in from the northwest. This could lead to a breezy to windy day Friday, especially in Northern California and east of the Cascades. A combination of strong winds/low RH could also result in an elevated fire weather concern. Models are still showing enough uncertainty in the timing and strength of the front, so PoPs for rain remain fairly low (mostly in the 10-25% chance range). The majority of GFS and ECMWF ensembles keep moisture/energy from Hurricane Rachel well to the south with only a few ensemble members showing moisture edging into far southeast portions of the CWA next weekend. While this scenario remains in the envelope of possibility, the probability that this moisture/energy reaches this far north is <5%. The vast majority of ensemble solutions keep the system well to our south. But, it'll be interesting to watch over the coming days.

AVIATION...04/12Z TAFs

Widespread LIFR in low clouds and fog will persist this morning along the coast from Cape Blanco northward and locally for areas south of Cape Blanco, with patchy drizzle possible. This includes for Clearing or partial clearing to VFR is expected around 18-20z. North Bend (KOTH). For inland TAFs, expecting mostly clear skies combined with light wind speeds today into tonight. Late Sunday night, patchy fog may develop in the Umpqua Basin, including at Roseburg (KRBG).

MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Sunday, October 4, 2026

A persisting thermal trough will bring gusty northerly winds and steep seas for much of the week ahead. Winds have trended lighter tonight into early Sunday morning. This will bring below advisory seas to inner waters while outer waters remain steep. The thermal trough strengthens Monday, bringing more widespread gusty winds and steep seas to all waters.

Fluctuations in the thermal trough's strength and position may bring changes to where steep seas are through the week, but there is an agreement in guidance that some amount of steep seas will be present through at least Thursday. A pattern change may bring active weather towards the end of the week, with some guidance also showing incoming long period westerly swell arriving at some point over the weekend. Confidence is not high enough in theses outcomes to predict the sea state, but as this is the first signs of possibly meaningful long-period swell for the season, acknowledging it is worthwhile.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376.