textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...08/12Z TAFs

Marine stratus will maintain IFR/LIFR conditions along the coast from Cape Blanco northward and Gold Beach southward through most of the morning. Some some gradual improvement to a scattered layer is expected again later this morning, but will return to similar areas after 03z this evening.

Farther inland, the marine stratus could bring some MVFR ceilings into portions of the Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg, around sunrise, but will quickly burn off by late morning. All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period with the typical increase in afternoon breezes this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 327 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026/

KEY POINTS...

* Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds.

* Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-30 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday).

* Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side.

DISCUSSION...Another quiet summer morning underway today. The marine layer blankets the coast from Gold Beach southward as well as the Coquille Basin and Coastal Ranges. Skies are clear everywhere else. The marine layer will continue nudging inland this morning, possibly making it to Roseburg around sunrise, but morning clouds will give way to sunshine by the afternoon hours.

Westerly flow will prevail today into Thursday under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. There will likely be some cumulus buildups today east of the Cascades and across northern California, and a stray shower (5% chance) can't be ruled out. A dry front will pass through the region today. This will bring another day of enhanced afternoon breezes as well as a general cooling trend in afternoon temperatures today that will persist into the weekend. Instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. With this general cool down, we'll see an uptick in afternoon humidities, so despite the enhanced afternoon winds, fire weather concerns will be somewhat mitigated by the slightly cooler temperatures.

The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter gradients. This pattern will bring a round of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday and Saturday when gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 30 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday and Saturday, most widespread on Saturday.

Low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, and this will ease winds some compared to Saturday, but conditions will still be quite breezy. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough. Daytime humidities will trend slightly upward and the flow will turn more southerly heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. While this is still 5 to 7 days out and plenty of time for details to change between now and then, it currently looks like we'll skate by on Sunday without any convective activity. Monday through Wednesday, however, there could be enough moisture and instability in the region for thunderstorm activity. Given that the region is on the western periphery of that strong high pressure, it currently looks like the best chances would be across eastern areas, though it's worth noting that current guidance shows enough moisture across the West Side for thunderstorm development potentially on Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Wednesday, July 8, 2026...Moderate north winds continue south of Cape Blanco, which will maintain steep seas through this morning. The thermal trough strengthens later this morning, resulting in increasing north winds and very steep seas developing south of Gold Beach. Small Craft Advisory winds and seas will spread north to Cape Arago. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but could strengthen again late weekend with gusty north winds and steep seas.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.