textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...05/06Z

A weakening front is moving east of the region this evening, bringing a mix of conditions. Conditions vary from IFR to low end VFR along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. Clearing skies south of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide and east of the Cascades is bringing areas of LIFR conditions in fog/low clouds. Expect additional areas of LIFR conditions to develop across the valleys before or around 12z as skies continue to clear. Cloud cover will persist into Thursday morning, improving to VFR by around 18z-20z.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 344 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* A weak cold front will bring light showers to Coos and Douglas counties this evening but will otherwise have little impact beyond keeping temperatures cool.

* Slight warming is possible on Friday and Saturday. Another could front may bring additional light showers to coastal and coastal- adjacent counties on Sunday.

* Seasonal conditions continue early next week. Long-term guidance shows activity towards the end of next week, but with substantial uncertainty.

DISCUSSION...Westerly flow aloft will keep a progressive, though not terribly impactful, pattern in place for much of the forecast period. A weak cold front is reaching the coast this afternoon, which will bring 15-30% chances for rain showers to coos and Douglas counties with forecast amounts in the hundreths of an inch. Other areas will see cool temperatures and cloudy skies but little else. A combination of atmospheric mixing and lingering cloud cover are expected to minimize fog development tonight in to Thursday, when seasonable conditions continue.

Following the cold front, a ridge developing over the Pacific Ocean will try to push into the area on Friday or Saturday. This might bring a day or two of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms, especially for west side valleys. But those warm temperatures would only be a small portion of the day's weather.

Beyond the ridge, the pattern is somewhat complicated but overall unimpactful. A first cold front looks to push the Pacific ridge eastward on Saturday, which could allow a second front to reach the area on Sunday. This would help bring temperatures back down to seasonable or cooler levels, but precipitation would again be minimal. Current imagery has 50-70% chances for showers over Coos, Curry, Josephine, and Douglas counties. Rainfall totals might approach two-tenths of an inch over terrain.

A similar pattern looks to continue early next week, with upper disturbances keeping upper ridging to the east but that ridge having just enough influence to push activity away to the north. This will keep temperatures near normal levels through about midweek.

Beyond the 7-day forecast period, meteogram guidance still shows chances for significant rainfall from an atmospheric river. However, this chances seem to be trending down. Guidance for Brookings and North Bend still shows solid agreement, but inland areas are becoming more fractured. The forecast for Mount Shasta City will be a good signal for other inland areas, as a low pressure system near the Gulf of Alaska looks to pull that AR moisture into a southerly flow pattern. For now, the meteogram for near Mount Shasta City (the station is at 5000 feet) is getting more fractured, with members seeing multiple inches of rain or no rain with few outcomes in between. While emphasizing that this Thursday-Saturday period is outside our formal forecast, that timeframe will be closely considered as it approaches. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 215 PM PST Wednesday, November 4, 2026...A weak front will swing through the waters this evening. This could bring some light rain at times, especially north of Cape Blanco. But, seas will subside a bit. Following the front, seas increase again overnight into Thursday as westerly swell builds in. Conditions will become steep and hazardous to small craft again, lasting Friday into the weekend. The tail end of another front will move through Saturday night with a chance of rain and elevated southerly winds. But, accompanying this front will be a very high long-period west- northwest swell that will move into the coastal waters Saturday night, then peak at around 15-20 ft at 15 seconds Sunday afternoon/evening. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.