textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge is keeping conditions warm and dry today and through Thursday. Daytime highs for today look to be in the low to mid 60s along the coast and the low 70s in west side valleys. East side areas have forecast highs in the mid to high 60s. With the ridge axis moving overhead on Thursday, additional warming is expected. Coastal areas and east side areas look to see highs in the mid to high 60s, with some east side basins reaching the low 70s. West side valleys have forecast highs in the high 70s to low 80s. While these values do not threaten existing records for the area, they do represent a Minor HeatRisk level. People who are extremely sensitive to heat may experience heat-related illnesses. In spite of a more active period forecast on Friday and beyond, surface temperatures will stay similarly warm through Sunday.

On Friday, a cutoff low will develop to the north and descend along the Pacific coast, which will bring southerly flow aloft as well as atmospheric instability. These conditions will bring areas of thunderstorm chances starting Friday afternoon and evening, then continuing through the weekend and into the following Monday. For Friday, the chances are fairly slight. Current guidance has 10-15% chances across western Siskiyou County, Jackson County, and along the Cascades. These chances develop later into the afternoon and dissipate quickly into the evening. Current forecast CAPE values for Friday are in the 200-400 J/Kg range, which does not suggest severe activity. On Saturday, chances increase along this line to 20-25%, while 10-15% chances are present over Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties. CAPE values on Saturday approach 600 J/Kg in places. Precipitable water values for both days are in the 0.5-0.8 inch range, which can help to bring rain showers as well.

On Sunday and Monday, this cutoff low drops to central California and start to travel to the east. Wraparound flow is expected to bring widespread rain showers rather than cellular activity, but embedded thunderstorms are still possible. On Sunday, chances for thunderstorms are highest west of the Cascades (20-25%), but some lower chances (10-20%) are present over east side areas. On Monday, chances lower to the west of the Cascades (10-15%) and increase to the east (20-25%). The highest forecast rainfall amounts are over elevated terrain along and east of the Cascades, with an inch of rainfall possible.

Given that the behavior of cutoff lows can be erratic and any slight shift in its path could change the expected impacts, these chances may shift day by day. Please stay tuned to upcoming forecasts to see our most recent expectations on where thunderstorms are possible.

A few showers may linger east of the Cascades into Tuesday morning, while west side areas will be under the influence of a developing ridge. Deterministic imagery keeps this ridge in control into the long term forecast, which is supported my ECMWF and GFS meteogram guidance showing many outcomes with warm temperatures. Using Medford as an example, forecast highs remain near 80 degrees through much of next week. Precipitation meteograms show few chances of precipitation, supporting the expected influence of a Pacific ridge. Deterministic imagery does show the ridge moving to the east as other features shift around it, hinting at a slow progress in the upper pattern is possible rather than any blocking pattern. -TAD

AVIATION...29/18Z TAFs

Lingering clouds are clearing out of the Umpqua Valley, leading to VFR levels across the area under a stable upper pattern. Gusty winds are expected along the Oregon coast this afternoon before easing in the evening, with marine stratus bringing MVFR levels by early Thursday morning. VFR levels look to continue for other areas through the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, April 29, 2026.

A thermal trough pattern will bring strong north winds through Saturday. The strongest winds and very steep seas are expected south of Ophir this afternoon and evening. Seas will be steep elsewhere. A similar pattern is expected on Thursday and Friday, with the highest wind speeds creeping up daily. Winds start to ease on Saturday but unsettled seas may continue.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356- 376.