textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Very warm temperatures now, and again on Thursday, with new high temperature records being set over some stations.

* A cold front will pass through the area Friday through Friday night into early Saturday morning with breezy winds and a low chance of rain, mainly for Coos and Douglas counties northward. Lingering low pressure on Sunday could produce a few very light showers over the higher terrain of the east side.

* Much cooler temperatures are then expected Saturday through at least Monday night with below normal overnight lows. Areas of frost are likely for valleys west of the Cascades, with freezing temperatures across the east side.

* Model agreement is very good through Monday. Beyond Monday, models disagree on the strength, track, and timing of the next trough.

DISCUSSION

High pressure will dominate through Thursday evening. We're at the time of the year, that tomorrow has a high chance of being the warmest it will be until sometime next year. This is especially likely to be the case for Brookings.

Precipitation chances will accompany a cold front Friday into early Saturday, but mostly for Coos and Douglas counties with any measureable amounts being barely measureable. This will also bring stronger afternoon breezes on Friday, especially on the east side.

The main aspect of the front will be significant, very noticeable, cooling Friday into early next week. Increasing clouds and lower heights aloft will result in high temperatures around 6 to 12 degrees lower on Friday than on Thursday.

Further cooling is expected during the weekend, with inland highs a substantial 15 to 20 degrees additionally colder. The coldest temperatures are likely on Monday morning. It will also be nearly as cold on Sunday morning, though with some areas of low level clouds helping to keep temperatures at least a little bit less cold.

The models do not have a good handle on the characteristics of the next trough moving out of Alaska early next week. It may bring additional light rain chances around Tuesday into Wednesday and keep temperatures on the chilly side. But, there is also a drier contingent of solutions, particularly in the ECMWF family, that would bring a drier forecast with modest warming back to around normal levels with inland highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION...08/06Z TAFs

Areas of LIFR ceilings and visibilities will linger north of Cape Blanco along the coast through tonight. Those lower ceilings will clear out again late in the morning hours. Farther inland, VFR will persist through the TAF period.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, October 7, 2026

The main change this afternoon was to extend the Hazardous Seas Warning in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco, with very steep seas to cover all of that area through Friday evening. Meantime, seas will remain steep elsewhere.

A persisting thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the rest of the week. As typical in these patterns, the strongest winds and highest seas will be south of Cape Blanco, with very steep seas expected from Gold Beach southward. Winds will be strongest during the afternoons/evenings with the highest of the steep to very steep seas in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco. The overall pattern will change very little through the weekend. A cold front will pass over the southern Oregon waters Friday into Saturday, disrupting the thermal trough and producing a slight chance of showers. North winds will continue, but will temporarily weaken slightly on Saturday.

Guidance continues to depict the arrival of the first west-northwest long period swell of the season over the weekend, likely originating from a storm currently off the coast of Japan and the active tropics. While swell is not expected to exceed 6 or 7 feet, the swell will arrive at 1 foot at 27 seconds on Saturday before it peaks at 19 seconds on Sunday night. This could produce dangerous bar conditions and the heaviest surf so far this season. Swell will then very slowly diminish Monday into Tuesday, continuing at 4 to 6 ft while period lowers to 14 seconds.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ376.