textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)

Key Points:

* Overall, minimal weather impacts through this weekend * Mostly light rainfall chances expected through Wednesday - No snow expected * Next widespread chance for precipitation is early next week - Could be as early as Sunday - Snow: Snow levels are high 6,000+ ft - Little to no snow accumulation expected - Rain: Mainly for Coastal areas, Cascades, & Umpqua Basin - Highest chances for accumulation of at least 0.25"/24hrs - Wind: Advisory level wind speeds possible early next week - Mainly eastside areas and Shasta Valley

Further Details:

Our weather across the PacNW is being dictated by an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure off the coast of California. This is allowing for a large swath of moisture advection into the region between these two features. By far and large, nearly all the weather impacts will be north of our forecast area. In other words, we are only expecting light rainfall through Wednesday given the strength and placement of the high pressure. Additionally, we will have wind advisory conditions over parts of the eastside through this evening. Eventually, the ridge of high pressure does break down, and the orientation shifts to allow this moisture plume to go farther north into Canada Thursday through Sunday. Through this stretch, we are expecting dry conditions across the forecast area. There is some uncertainty on the next potential area of low pressure impacting the region, and it could be as early as Sunday. Deterministic and ensemble members have a strong signal for rainfall chances increasing by Monday. Snow levels are really high early next week, and at this time very little snowfall is anticipated. Cluster analysis shows a split with 5000mb heights early next week. This doesn't lead to high confidence with some of the exact details, but at this time there isn't a lot of confidence for impactful weather through early next week. The probability for at least 2.0" of snow over 24 hours is only around 20% Mon/Tues for areas in/around Crater Lake. In fact, most ensemble members have zero snowfall at Crater Lake through early next week. We are going to need the pattern to shift in a way that allows colder Arctic/Canadian air to advect into the region, but this doesn't look promising through next week. For perspective, the latest Crater Lake has had zero snow depth was December 26th, 1976. Record keeping began in 1919 for Crater Lake, and we have only had 9 years where we went into December for the last snow depth of zero. This will be the 10th year, and will likely rank at least 3rd latest ever. In 1958, we went until December 20th, and in 2008 we went until December 11th.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)

Rain showers are still expected through early parts of this TAF cycle which will mainly impact KOTH, but there will be showers around KRBG and KMFR as well. Overall, this will be mostly a MVFR to IFR/LIFR TAF cycle as ceilings reduce overnight in addition to visibilities. High confidence (50%-70%) for IFR/LIFR conditions overnight. The one caveat is KLMT which will have the highest uncertainty for IFR/LIFR, but overall conditions will deteriorate overnight across the area with fog/low clouds.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PST Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Gusty south winds and steep wind waves combined with westerly swell will maintain conditions hazardous to small craft through this evening. Winds subside tonight, but west swell persists into Wednesday, especially north of Cape Blanco and high steep will continue to pose a threat to smaller crafts. Conditions improve for the latter half of the week as high pressure builds over the region. Expecting showers over the waters through mid-week as well which could further reduce visibilities (fog/low clouds expected as well) over the next couple days.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-370.