textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)

Weak instability over far northeast Klamath and far northwest Lake counties may produce a few thunderstorms early this evening. A marine layer will likely keep North Bend/KOTH under overcast IFR/MVFR ceilings through most of Wednesday morning, with some gradual improvement to a scattered layer expected again during the late morning into the early evening. Farther inland, all terminals are expected to be under VFR conditions through Wednesday afternoon with one caveats. The marine layer will likely be strong enough overnight to bring MVFR ceilings to Roseburg/KRBG for a few hours around sunrise again. Otherwise, expecting typical diurnal breezes this evening and Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Moderate north winds continue south of Cape Blanco, which will maintain steep seas through tonight. The thermal trough intensifies Wednesday, with gusty north winds and very steep seas expected south of Cape Blanco, and Small Craft Advisory winds and seas spreading north to Cape Arago. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but then returns with gusty north winds and steep seas during the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 1206 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026/

KEY POINTS...

* Low chance (10-15 percent) of thunderstorms from Crater Lake north and northeast this afternoon.

* Typical summer weather continues through the week.

* Gusty winds and very low humidities possible east of the Cascades this weekend.

* In the long term, a pattern change may bring monsoonal moisture and atmospheric instability. In this outcome, East Side thunderstorms are possible early next week.

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows an extensive area of marine layer stratus along the coast, which has burned back from filling all of the coastal valleys and much of the Umpqua Basin this morning. Also, cumulus fields have developed along the Cascade crest. Otherwise, conditions are mostly clear on yet another relatively typical summer day.

Southern Oregon and far northern California remain under southwest flow aloft, between a trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska, and broad strong ridging over the Four Corners and Central Plains. This will keep the weather in our area fairly stable, with dry conditions and high temperatures around 5 degrees above normal for this time of year, but there are a few caveats.

The first is a very slight chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon along the Cascades from Crater Lake north, and to some areas to the northeast. Some residual energy, moisture, and instability remain behind the departing shortwave from yesterday, and this has already brought some cumulus development to that area as early as 10 am this morning. Likely, nothing will develop, and if it does, it will be highly isolated with little impact, but it is, as we say, a non-zero chance.

Second, we will see the passage of a dry cold front Wednesday. Little will mark the passage of the fronts, other than a strong marine push, as they will be dissipating or weakening quite a bit before even making it onshore, but we do expect some increased winds Tuesday and to a lesser extent Wednesday afternoon. Today looks like the breezier day, with slightly weaker winds but drier conditions Wednesday. Then, after a rather mundane Thursday, another dry front arrives this weekend, likely with stronger winds and continued dry conditions Friday and Saturday afternoons. There are some fire weather concerns that arise during these periods, as very dry air will flow in ahead of these fronts. Most concerns will be concentrated over the East Side, in particular southern Lake County and Modoc County, but other locations such as the Rogue and Shasta valleys will be breezy and dry as well.

Looking beyond this weekend, model suites show the southwest flow strengthening aloft as the offshore trough digs slightly south and the ridge over the central US strengthens and builds north. This would essentially set up a classic monsoonal pattern that could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but it is far too soon to know the exact timing and location. We will keep an eye on this over the coming days and update as necessary.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.