textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Morning fog could create some driving hazards for the morning commute.

* Rain will probably fall along coast and other locations west of the Cascades later this evening.

* Temperatures trend warmer towards the weekend.

* Another cold front will bring light rain to the coast and areas west of the Cascades Saturday night.

* The active weather pattern continues into next week.

DISCUSSION

The main weather feature this morning is low stratus and fog in the valleys. Klamath Falls is reporting freezing fog under 1/4 mile visibility. Therefore, we issued a freezing fog advisory for the Klamath Basin. Roseburg is also reporting some fog with visibility around 0.25 miles. This morning should be fairly quiet with a ridge in place, although a short wave and associated cold front will move into the coast later this evening between 0Z and 3Z Thursday. Models are still showing a modest chance of rain west of the Cascades with PoPs varying from 15 to 60 percent west of the Cascades. If we do see any rain fall, it should be fairly light and non impactful.

Once this wave and cold front move through, we'll see 500 mb heights build in the wave's wake. Thursday's weather will be quiet with mostly clear skies during the day. Models show stronger southerly to southwest flow developing over the Pacific ahead of the next system. It looks like an atmospheric river hits areas well to our north through Friday under the stronger southwest flow. Temperatures do trend slightly higher into the mid 60's west of the Cascades with upper 50's elsewhere Friday afternoon.

Finally into the weekend, temperatures continue to trend warmer and a few locations could be hitting the 70 degree mark. The latest NBM has 73 in Agness, 70 in Grants Pass and 72 in Cave Junction Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, a strong low will deepen of the British Columbia coastline Saturday evening. This will push another cold front through the region by late Saturday night with some wetting rain along the coast and perhaps some lighter rain making it to the Cascade Mountains. The PoP forecast for Crater Lake Sunday morning is about 40%. This cold front is also lacking a lot of dynamic strength and we shouldn't see a lot of wind with it. The extreme forecast index isn't picking up on anything really anomalous with this Sunday morning front wind or precipitation wise.

Finally heading into next week, models show Monday as being a dry day with a low chance of rain heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks like some ensemble members do want to bring the leading edge of the next atmospheric river into southern Oregon on one these days, although the vast majority of members are pushing it farther north towards Portland and Seattle. In any case, the PoP forecast is about 20 to 30%. Even if the wetter solutions occur, we don't see any flooding risk with this initial AR Tuesday and Wednesday.

Towards the middle of next week and tail end of next week is when the chance of precipitation increases significantly according to the latest 0Z ensembles, which continue to push this heavy rain farther out. Even so, the AR seems to move through quickly and doesn't really hover over one area. Therefore, we see little threat of flooding over our area next week, especially considering how dry it has been over our area.

-Smith

AVIATION

04/12Z TAFS

IFR and LIFR stratus has filled in east of the Cascades and within the Umpqua valley this morning. In addition, we'll see some freezing fog near Klamath Falls(LMT) and perhaps some 1/4 to 1 mile fog around Roseburg(RBG) and Medford(MFR) through the remainder of the morning hours under these clear skies. This fog will burn off by the late morning hours before some mid and high clouds move in later this afternoon. Light rain and some MVFR ceilings will probably form west of the Cascades later this evening.

-Smith

MARINE

Sea conditions briefly improve later today as winds remain relatively light. Another longer period swell with high wave heights will move through the waters Thursday. This incoming swell will be hazardous to smaller crafts through at least Friday and will likely continue into the weekend. With a low deepening of the British Columbia coastline, swells will push towards 14 feet late Saturday night and Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. Winds will probably be an issue for smaller crafts ahead of this front Sunday.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.