textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Hot and dry conditions persist, with generally seasonable summer weather expected for the week ahead.

* Daily marine layer pushes will result in some areas of fog and low clouds along the coast, the coastal valleys, and at times, as far inland as the Umpqua Basin.

DISCUSSION

Typical summer temperatures and normal diurnal winds are generally expected for the week ahead, with the upper flow remaining from the southwest between a continental ridge and persistent troughing over the northeast Pacific. The ridge is strong enough to keep the overall pattern rather stagnant, although a few weak shortwaves will pass through or near the area throughout the week. This pattern will keep temperatures in a seasonable range, with a slight nudge upwards possible towards the end of the week as the ridge retrogrades slowly towards the West Coast. Temperatures may reach about 5 degrees above normal on Friday, especially east of the Cascades. Current forecast highs for Friday have the coast in the low 70s, the Umpqua Valley floor in the high 80s, and most other areas in the mid to high 90s. Isolated areas of triple digits look to be limited to the lower Klamath River Valley. Those extra 5 degrees look to cool over next weekend.

As mentioned above, a few shortwaves will traverse the southwest flow aloft and approach the Pacific Northwest, though most are forecast to pass just to the south. With a distinct lack of atmospheric moisture, the waves will have very little, if any, chance of producing convection/precipitation, so the only real discernible weather that may accompany these impulses will be slightly stronger marine pushes along the coast, and slightly enhanced afternoon winds. One shortwave may move directly over the area Thursday, but unless there is some kind of unforeseen moisture inflow to the area, which is unlikely given the stranglehold the ridge has over us, even this impulse will not bring us any rain or thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION...27/18Z TAFs

VFR levels are generally present across northern California and southern Oregon, with scraps of MVFR ceilings over Brookings as of writing this discussion. Smoke from area wildfires remains over central Lake and easternmost Douglas counties, but upper level flow will keep this smoke away from area terminals. Marine stratus looks to build along the Oregon coast this evening, with IFR or MVFR levels possible into Tuesday morning.

Other areas will see VFR levels with normal diurnal breezes through the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 1230 AM PDT Monday, July 27, 2026

Sub- advisory conditions under light south through westerly winds and low seas are expected to continue into the start of the week ahead. Seas will be a mix of fresh short period northwest swell and low long period south swell. Winds will shift to the north by Tuesday afternoon, possibly building small craft conditions across area waters Wednesday through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 AM PDT Monday, July 27, 2026

Humidities will inch slightly higher today with slightly weaker wind gusts. Overall, warm and dry conditions continue for most of next week with a low off the BC coast bringing deeper west flow off the Pacific. With this deeper west flow, we should also see some stronger marine pushes overnight with good recoveries in some valleys west of the Cascades.

Most models are showing a series of weak shortwaves moving through the area this week. There is very little atmospheric moisture for these shortwaves to use, so thunderstorm/precipitation chances are very low, with little more to mark the passage of the waves than some slightly stronger marine pushes and slightly enhanced afternoon winds. However, a small group of ensemble members in the ECMWF are picking up on thunderstorms around central Oregon and north eastern Oregon with the strongest wave on Thursday afternoon. A very small minority(2/50) have some activity in our forecast area in south western Oregon. Something to keep an eye on over the next few days.

-Smith/BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.