textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an extensive layer of marine clouds lying along and just offshore, with cumulus fields developing over the Klamath mountains, and along and eats of the Cascades. With an upper trough passing overhead, temperatures today have decreased, but remain 5-10 degrees above normal. This afternoon and evening, some of those cumulus clouds could use the energy from the trough to tap into modest instability and moisture, creating isolated showers or even a thunderstorm in eastern Siskiyou, eastern Klamth, and Lake and Modoc counties. Confidence is low, and it is far more likely that nothing develops at all, but it is possible.

Seasonal warmth is forecast for Thursday ahead of a cold front arriving late Thursday night and moving over the area through the day Friday. Cold air behind the front will bring below normal temperatures across the area and chances for light rainfall to Oregon counties, making conditions feel more like late April than late June. Coastal ranges the the Cascades north of Crater Lake may see a quarter inch of rainfall. The Umpqua Valley may see up to one- tenth of an inch. Also, with the cold air settling into the region, we cannot rule out a dusting of snow over the higher peaks and ridges, including the Crater Lake rim and Mount Ashland. This front will also bring breezy to gusty winds, especially east of the Cascades. The strongest winds are forecast to be over the Cascades, along Winter Rim, and over the Warner Mountains. Gusts in these areas look to approach but not exceed Advisory criteria. For Friday night into Saturday morning, Frost/Freeze possibilities may be present east of the Cascades, particularly of concern in the Klamath Basin, the Tulelake area, and in other agricultural areas where the growing season is in full swing.

Being the front, a low pressure system dig into the upper trough and swings over the area over the weekend. This looks to make Saturday the coolest day of the forecast period, while temperatures warm slightly on Sunday as the low heads eastward. Rain showers are expected to continue over Coos and Douglas counties, especially over the Cascades foothills. Amounts remain unimpactful, with some parts of the foothills currently forecast to get one-third of an inch of rainfall over the weekend. Coverage of frost/freeze conditions east of the Cascades may expand on Saturday and Sunday nights.

For Monday and beyond, significant divergence in model patterns makes any detailed forecasting difficult. Generally, an upper trough pattern remains in the area, bringing northwest flow with seasonal or even slightly below normal temperatures and perhaps a few shower chances to start next week, depending on how strong the trough is and the exact east/west location of the trough axis in relation to our forecast area.

AVIATION...25/00Z TAFs

The marine layer will remain well entrenched along the coast and at coastal sites through Thursday morning, maintaining IFR/LIFR conditions.

Inland areas will remain VFR through the TAF period with the typical increase in afternoon breezes. Cumulus buildups are also expected this evening over the higher terrain, with isolated thunderstorms possible south of the OR/CA border and east of the Cascades.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Northerly winds and steep seas continue south of Cape Blanco today, then will diminish tonight into Thursday. A very late season cold front then arrives late Thursday into Friday with light rain and moderate south winds, then showers and potentially steep fresh west-northwest swell through the weekend. North winds return early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.