textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Section

AVIATION...30/00z TAFs

Areas near Grants Pass still have low clouds with the Rogue Valley under mostly sunny skies while the coast is under MVFR ceilings. A weak disturbance will move in from the north tonight with an IFR/MVFR mix. Isolated showers are also possible, highest probability from the coast to interior Douglas County (including Roseburg), in the mountains and across the north from late this evening into early Sunday morning. Areas of IFR/LIFR valley fog are expected to form again overnight into Sunday morning, and this is shown in the Medford TAF. -Spilde/-9

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 200 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025/

DISCUSSION...Not a lot has changed in the expected weather pattern heading into the first week of December. The next several days will be largely dominated by dry weather with a strong semi- permanent upper ridge parked out along 140W. This pattern will allow a couple of "inside-slider" type systems, one tonight into Sunday and another Monday night through Tuesday night, to come over the top of the ridge and into the PacNW. But, these systems will have little moisture available for precipitation and will only produce isolated to scattered rain/snow showers. Focus areas for any showers will be from the coast to the Cascades and over to the Warner Mtns. A dusting of snow is possible over the higher terrain with either of these disturbances, but measurable rain amounts at lower elevations won't be much more than a few hundredths here or there. Nighttime/morning fog/low clouds can also be expected during this period, with the most extensive coverage Sunday night into Monday morning between systems. The weak disturbance Monday night into Tuesday night could cause an uptick in afternoon N-NW breezes Tuesday afternoon, especially over the higher terrain and east side.

Mid-late next week, a strong upper high sets up near 40N and 140W Wednesday, weakening as it wobbles east-southeastward into next weekend. The strength of the ridge will shape our weather, but there's disagreement on how fast or even if this ridge will break down completely. Right now, the upper ridge should keep us dry Wed/Thu with models keeping the northern branch of the jet directed mostly into BC. Snow levels also rise to above 8000 feet during this time, so temps should average above normal. With some weakening of the ridge, the possibility remains that systems eventually come over the top again and into the PacNW at some point Friday into next weekend. The official forecast, which is a blend of the 100 member ensemble, brings increasing PoPs (20-40% chance) to the coast and northern Douglas County Friday, then increasing to 40-60% Friday night into Saturday. Precip chances farther south and east though remain generally less 15%, so NorCal locations probably remain dry.

Beyond that, most ensemble members maintain the status quo (drier, milder) with some version of the ridge remaining offshore and the main axis of the jet directed to our north. Some GEFS members (including the 12z deterministic run) break the ridge down and bring the jet farther south with a cooler, wetter solution. These solutions are currently in the minority. As it stands, odds currently favor the drier, milder solutions and CPC 6-10 day forecasts (Dec 5-9) reflect this with a high likelihood (50-60%) of above normal temperatures and odds leaning toward near to below normal precip for southern Oregon/northern California. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Saturday, November 29, 2025... Northerly winds increase slightly this evening into tomorrow morning. Speeds further increase and eventually reach small craft conditions south of Port Orford tomorrow evening through Monday afternoon. North winds are expected to once again further strengthen on Tuesday with advisory conditions likely across southern waters. An incoming long period swell is expected to peak at 7 to 11 ft at 16 to 19 seconds Monday into Tuesday. Overall, seas will remain hazardous through middle parts of next week.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 100 PM PST Saturday, November 29, 2025...Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 21 to 22 seconds early Monday morning, which coincides with the incoming high tide that is anticipated by 8 am PST Monday morning. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect to highlight this risk for Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

This swell is expected to peak at around 7 to 10 ft at 16 to 18 seconds Monday afternoon and evening, so while seas will be steep, high surf conditions are not expected at beaches. If you have plans to visit the coast next week, particularly on Monday, please be aware of this potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to the beaches for another day. Sneaker waves run up significantly farther on beaches than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean!

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ376.