textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* High impact marine weather starting tonight and going through Friday

* Inland, low to moderate impacts from strong winds and rainfall; minimal impacts from snow occuring mainly above 5000 feet

* Active weather likely to continue through the weekend and early next week

DISCUSSION

A long wave trough continues to advance towards the western CONUS today. The closed low is currently centered around roughly 142W and 48N. This closed low will continue to deepen as it heads towards the PacNW tonight into Friday and will be responsible for much of our active weather through Saturday. Then another low develops behind this first closed low and heads into British Columbia to continue impacts through the weekend with a majority of these impacts near the coast.

The strongest wind speeds will likely be between Coos Bay and Pistol River Friday morning, but the entire southern Oregon coast is under a High Wind Warning for areas along/near the coast. Below are some probabilities for areas along/near the coast where we will likely see the strongest gusts.

* 50 mph or greater: 70% to 95% * 55 mph or greater: 50% to 90% * 60 mph or greater: 30% to 70% * 65 mph or greater: 10% to 35%

These probabilities have led to enough confidence to issue a High Wind Warning for areas along and near the coast. The main take away is that strong to very strong wind gusts are expected tonight through Friday which can lead to downed tress, power outages, as well as difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles. Any unsecured or loose outdoor objects will likely get blown around or damaged.

Farther inland, strong wind gusts are expected for the Shasta Valley and the Rogue Valley today through Friday morning. Eastside areas will also be under a Wind Advisory starting tonight and going through Friday afternoon. These areas will likely see wind gusts around 45 to 55 mph.

There is increasing probabilities for further wind hazards Saturday and Saturday night with the next low pressure system.

Precipitation chances will start tonight/Fri morning and continue through the weekend. There will be breaks as we are not expecting a continuous onslaught of rainfall. Rainfall amounts will be highest along and near the coast. Curry County--in typical fashion --will see the higher rainfall rates and amounts. That said, not expecting much in the realm of impacts for rainfall, but nuisance type flooding with ponding on roadways will lead to slippery roads and longer driving times. Driving conditions on Friday and Sunday in particular may involve the most nuisance for drivers.

Snowfall will be confined to areas above 5000 ft, and we are not expecting any noteworthy accumulations, but highways around Diamond Lake/Crater Lake (1.0"-3.0") and Lake of the Woods (Trace-1.0") could be the areas to watch for light amounts of snowfall. This may lead to slippery roads and longer drive times Friday afternoon through Monday morning, especially around Crater Lake & Diamond Lake for Highways 230 and 138 where light accumulations are most likely.

AVIATION...13/00Z TAFs

VFR levels presisat across much of northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon, wioth areas of MVFR ceilings along parts of the Oregon coast and over some area terrain. Gusty winds are already present in the Shasta Valley and over terrain east of the Cascades.

An approaching cold front will bring gusty southerly winds and rainfall across the area this evening into Friday morning. Rainfall will be capable of bringing lower ceilings and visibilities as well as obscuring elevated terrain. Rainfall will be heaviest along the coast, but inland areas could still see periods of impactful precipiation. Snow levels of 7000 feet or higher through Friday afternoon will keep snowfall to the highest peaks and ridgelines. Low level wind shear will be present over most areas into Friday afternoon, with timing noted in TAFs for specific terminals. Areas of wind shear may develop outside of modeled possibilities.

Activity eases west of the Cascades on Friday afternoon, but rainfall will continue along the coast and east of the Cascades through the end of the TAF period. Snow levels fall to 6000 feet, but snowfall should not impact area terminals. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Thursday, November 12, 2026

An approaching impactful front is bringing increasing southerly winds this afternoon. Gusty winds look to reach gale strength briefly this evening, then storm force winds are expected across area waters through much of Friday morning.

Near Friday afternoon, winds ease but gusts remain at gale levels. Very steep and very hazardous long period swell starts to arrive at the boundary of the outer warters, 60 nm from shore, and builds through the night. This swell is forecast to have wave heights of 26 to 30 feet at 18 seconds, and will build in all area waters into Saturday morning. Wave heights decrease slightly but remain very steep and hazardous through Saturday.

Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a second front moves over area waters. This front may be marginally weaker than the first. Current guidance shows additional storm force wind gusts but for a shorter timeframe as well as more moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds fall below gale levels by late Sunday morning, but another log period swell (this one 19-23 ft at 18 seconds) will support very steep and hazardous seas persisting across area waters until early next week.

Mariners are urged to remain in port during this period of extremely dangerous weather, secure vessels and continue to monitor forecasts for updates. -TAD/Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS

Updated 200 AM PST Thursday, November 12, 2026... Dangerous conditions are expected along area beaches Friday through the weekend. A strong cold front will move through tonight into Friday followed by a major, long period westerly swell. Ocean swells will rise dramatically and peak at 25 to 30 feet, causing breaking waves in the surf zone of 30 to 35 feet Friday night into Saturday morning. This would result in exceptionally high and dangerous surf conditions, with completely inundated beaches, and potential dune overwash and erosion. Surf heights may lower somewhat Saturday night, but another heavy long period swell is anticipated behind a second front Sunday. Breakers in the surf zone could reach 25-30 feet and persist Sunday night into Monday. Those with coastal and marine interests should stay up to date with the latest forecasts as this dangerous surf event could impact coastal infrastructure.

-Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ026-029>031.

High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.

High Surf Warning from 10 AM Friday to 10 PM PST Saturday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ081-084-085.

High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Friday for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Storm Warning until 9 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 9 AM to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.