textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue through the forecast period.

* Temperatures look to peak over the weekend, with forecast daytime highs staying 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

* An upper disturbance may bring nocturnal thunderstorm chances to northern California on Sunday night into early Monday morning, but chances are currently in the single digits.

DISCUSSION

Northwest flow aloft as an upper level Pacific ridge approaches the continental United States is bringing a decent marine push early this morning. Marine stratus has settled along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Umpqua Valley as well as over Brookings. This layer looks to clear out early in the afternoon. With the ridge creeping closer today, temperatures may rise by a couple degrees from Tuesday's highs but overall similar conditions are expected.

By Thursday and Friday, high pressure moves inland over the southwest United States. Additional warming will bring temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the area, with northern California seeing the ~10 degree increases while Douglas and northern portions of Lake and Klamath counties are more likely to be in the ~5 degree above average range.

On Saturday and Sunday, temperatures rise into the 10 to 15 degree above average range. Over the weekend, coastal areas are expected to be in the high 70s. East side areas and Douglas County are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s. Other west side valleys look to be in the high 80s to low 90s while parts of the Klamath River Valley may approach 100 degrees. Weekend daytime highs may tie or break existing records for some parts of the CWA. Easterly flow overnight may pose fire weather concerns as recoveries over area peaks and ridgelines may be more moderate, with possible localized poor recoveries over terrain in Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Models are also starting to show very slight chances for isolated nocturnal thunderstorm activity over northern California on Sunday night into Monday morning. Those chances are in the single digits right now, but the possibility is worth acknowledging.

Beyond the weekend, long-term guidance shows some possibility of a slow and steady decrease in daytime warmth. With that said, temperatures could stay above seasonal norms through much of next week. -TAD

AVIATION...30/12Z TAFs

IFR/LIFR levels are present along much of the Oregon coast under a layer of marine stratus. Stratus has made its way into the Umpqua Valley, where MVFR ceilings have settled in. These ceilings are expected to clear by early this afternoon. Winds tonight into early Thursday morning are expected to come from the northeast, which would push the return of marine stratus into those early morning hours or prevent it completely.

Inland areas look to remain at VFR levels under clear skies through the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Wednesday, September 29, 2026

West-northwest swell dominated seas will transition to wind wave dominated seas today as the thermal trough restrengthens and expands northward along the southern Oregon coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas then continue into Friday before weakening as the thermal trough moves inland this weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.