textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions are the overall theme going forward

* Thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow continuing through the weekend and perhaps early parts of next week with the main risk being lightning and gusty erratic winds

* Areas of smoke remain possible due to nearby wildfires which could bring unhealthy air quality but latest trends show a decrease in smoke

DISCUSSION

High pressure aloft that has been over the Four Corners Region for several days has started to slide east and southwest over the Gulf of America states. This has allowed a trough to form over the western CONUS. A general trough pattern will remain over the west coast for well into middle parts of next week. Beyond Wednesday the pattern does show inconsistencies with the models out of phase from one another. This has resulted in some uncertainty, especially middle to later parts of next week.

This pattern will allow for several days of thunderstorm chances. While uncertainty exists on coverage details due to the isolated nature of these potential storms, the takeaway is that we're not anticipating these to produce a lot of rain, and lightning is expected to be isolated. DCAPE values are rather high in some model outputs, and this could lead to strong gusty outflows with speeds potentially around 45-55 mph. In fact, some of the stronger storms could potentially produce 60mph winds, but again the isolated nature of these storms makes this forecast difficult. At this time, favored areas are central/western Siskiyou County, east/southeast Modoc County, Lake County, and portions of central to northern Klamath County. Given the isolated nature of these potential storms, we are not anticipated a Red Flag Warning at this time, but if coverage and/or lightning intensity increases we may have to reconsider this. That said, we are in peak fire season, so any lightning over these dry fuels could produce some initial attack starts.

Lastly, smoke will be the other factor as the diurnal wind pattern continues to spread areas of smoke across the forecast area. Smoke is very difficult to forecast with uncertainties involved in fire activity/suppression and exactly how much smoke will be introduced into the atmosphere. That said, recent model output is showing a general decrease in smoke over the next couple days which could be due to better fire suppression from better overnight humidity recoveries and the cooler afternoon temperatures.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)

Coastal stratus has pushed back in along portions of the coast with IFR conditions near OTH. Those will likely continue through the overnight hours, although there is some clearing that could push in briefly over the next few hours. Otherwise, farther inland VFR conditions will prevail except near the Wrights Spring fire just east of Klamath Falls. There should be some lower visibilities around 6SM around 12Z. Those will eventually clear up as the south westerly winds pick up in the morning hours.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Gusty north winds continue through this evening, with areas of gales and very steep seas south of Port Orford and steep seas to the north. Winds will begin to ease Thursday, with north winds at Small Craft Advisory strength south of Port Orford replacing the Gale Warning. In fact, the combination of wind wave and fresh swell will lead to steep seas continuing Thursday through Friday morning. Weak winds and low seas are expected for the weekend and into early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-370-376.