textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...03/06Z TAFs

Light scattered showers continue but are decreasing across the area tonight. VFR levels are expected to prevail through most of the TAF period. Slight chances of development remain for Roseburg and Klamath Falls. Guidance has backed away from fog in the Umpqua Valley tonight, replacing that outcome with a period of MVFR ceilings. Timing for possible fog in Klamath Falls has also been included in the TAFs. Confidence in both of these possibilities is slight to moderate at best, but they are included in the absence of other activity. Anything that does develop overnight should clear out before Thursday afternoon.

Other areas are expected to see VFR levels through Thursday. -TAD

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 500 PM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025/

DISCUSSION...A long wave upper trough is settling into the Great Basin and moving slowly toward the Four Corners region. The PacNW is currently on the back side of this upper trough with northerly flow aloft. Some energy in the northerly flow aloft and instability due to daytime heating is resulting in isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, especially from the Cascades and Siskiyous north and west, but also over Winter Rim and the Warners. Some of these may contain brief gusty winds. An isolated shower or two still could pop up outside those locations as well through this evening. Coverage of showers should diminish around/after sunset and cloud cover should also gradually break up. While we're getting out of the time of year for fog formation, there is a 20-30% chance some forms in the west side valleys toward morning. This is most likely in the Umpqua Basin, where low level moisture is highest. Low temperatures tonight will be a bit below normal. So, it'll be chilly east of the Cascades with lows largely in the 20s. West side valleys will bottom out in the 30s, which could lead to patchy frost where it is clear long enough (perhaps Illinois Valley).

High pressure offshore will build into the area on Thursday. There is still just enough instability for a slight chance/isolated rain/snow showers in far SE sections during Thursday afternoon, but most areas will be dry and turn milder, though high temperatures remain mostly below normal.

Chilly mornings and milder afternoons are expected Friday and Saturday with a period of drying east winds Friday, which will shift to southerly during Saturday. The warming trend continues with high temperatures of 5-10F above normal west of the Cascades Friday (near 70F west side valleys) and 10-15F above normal there on Saturday (mid 70s). East side areas warm more gradually, but still end up about 5-10F above normal on Saturday (generally 60-65F for highs).

Sunday will be a transition day as the next trough approaches the coast. This will probably be the warmest day east of the Cascades, but increasing cloud cover should result in slightly cooler temperatures west of the Cascades. Expect an uptick in southerly winds in the usual spots (along the coast, in the Shasta Valley and over the East Side), but overall, just a breezy afternoon. Rain chances increase along the coast and rain is likely there, if if not late morning, then by afternoon. Most other areas escape the day dry, but there is a chance of rain along I-5 (30-50%) Sunday afternoon. A period of rain moves through most areas Sunday night with snow levels around 7500 feet dropping to the higher passes (5000 feet) by Monday morning. Post-frontal showers continue Monday.

Flat ridging will build into the area Tuesday with the storm track expected to shift far enough north to keep conditions dry, except for the northwest part of the forecast area. Even then, were only expecting a slight chance of rain. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 200 PM Wednesday, April 2, 2025...Overall, expect seas of 6 to 9 feet at 10 seconds with north to northwest winds generally in the 10-20kt range into tonight. Northerly winds increase once again on Thursday which will result in steep short-period seas. We have issued a Small Craft Advisory out to 20 NM from shore off Cape Blanco, and extending to 60 NM from shore off Pt. St. George. Then, another period of improving conditions is expected Friday through Saturday. A building long period (18-20 seconds) west swell is anticipated on Sunday, and this will likely lead to steep seas once again. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.