textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Section

AVIATION...27/18Z TAFs

Northwest winds will remain strong at the coast with gusts near 30 kt possible at North Bend between 2 PM to 8 PM. VFR will prevail for most sites through the TAF period.

The exception is the Umpqua Basin (Roseburg) as some stratus or fog is one again possible Saturday morning between 13-15Z, and this could bring IFR conditions. For now, low VFR conditions are in the forecast during this time as this morning's coverage was very limited. -Smith/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 605 AM PDT Fri Mar 27 2026/

SYNOPSIS...

A quick warm up today and tomorrow with highs pushing into the mid 70's within the valleys. A cold front will cool things down for the start of next week. A stronger system will bring accumulating snow to the mountains around Wednesday and Thursday. Winter impacts will likely be moderate in mountains.

DISCUSSION...

A thermal trough remains in place this morning with some offshore winds and some very dry air in the lower levels based off of radiosonde observation @ MFR. Temperatures will trend notably warmer today as the thermal trough moves inland with highs in the mid 70's within valleys west of the Cascades and upper 60's along the southern Oregon coastline near Brookings and Gold Beach. The thermal trough moves further inland on Saturday, although little changes in temperatures with conditions a few degrees cooler. The coast could observe cloud cover with the onshore flow.

A short wave moving in from the Gulf of Alaska could bring some precipitation to the coastal areas and northern portions of Douglas County on Sunday evening. Those precipitation probabilities increase to 50% Sunday night as the trough axis passes over northern Oregon. There appears to be a cold front associated with this trough axis and WPC has analyzed a cold front passing through southern Oregon around 12Z Monday. One can see this in the snow levels as well as they're down to 2500 behind the front in northern Oregon and as high as 7000 feet in Modoc County ahead of the front. Snow accumulation will be negligible in the higher terrain with only an inch or two of accumulation. The higher sun angle and spacing behind the showers will result in no impacts on the roads.

The real headline in our forecast is Wednesday evening into Thursday of next week when yet another low and cold front moves into the Pacific Northwest. The NBM is more excited about the QPF and the snow accumulation in the mountains. In addition, snow levels will remain low through Thursday and it will be kind of like winter again!!! Currently, the NBM has snow levels 5000 feet Wednesday evening with 3000 feet during the day on Thursday and perhaps as low as 2500 feet Thursday night. With high temperatures forecast to be in the mid 50's at Medford @1300 feet and your wetbulb and freezing temp near 32 around 3300 feet, those will be some pretty strong temperature lapse rates in the boundary layer. We should see some pretty strong showers behind the front or perhaps a few rumbles of thunder.

As for snow accumulations during this event, the NBM has a 78% chance for 12 inches and a 33% chance of 24 inches at Crater Lake over 48 hours ending 4am Friday. Also, the extreme forecast index(EFI) is not that excited about the snow event with values of 0.6 to 0.7 in the Cascades Thursday. This suggests the event should be strong for this time of year, although saying its extreme would be a reach.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday, March 27, 2026...A thermal trough will remain strong through this morning. Hazardous seas persist for areas south of Cape Blanco and farther north near Coos Bay through Saturday morning.

Winds ease Saturday, but seas are likely to remain steep. Further improvement is expected on Sunday, with a period of below advisory seas possible to end the weekend. Active weather is forecast to bring rain and building winds and seas from Monday into the middle of next week as as stronger system moves east. Expect some larger swells during early April.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ370-376.