textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...27/18Z TAFS

LIFR conditions prevail in the Umpqua Basin and Illinois Valley/Grants Pass area, with gradual improvement to VFR expected by 21z. VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the area through the TAF period with high level clouds streaming across the region. LIFR conditions in fog/low clouds are expected to return to similar locations tonight, including the Coquille Basin/North Bend area. Mid-high level clouds will increase overnight into Saturday as a warm front approaches the region toward the end of the current TAF period. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 356 AM PST Fri Feb 27 2026/

DISCUSSION...With an upper ridge remaining the guiding influence today, a mild day of weather is forecast across the area. For early this morning, fog development is the main area of interest. Onshore flow is allowing fog to develop at the North Bend airport, which may stick around into the late morning. Fog has also developed in the Umpqua Valley, while so far the Rogue Valley remains fogless under mid-level clouds. East of the Cascades, drier air under mid- to high- level ceilings looks to limit widespread fog, but localized development is possible.

While today's daytime highs look to be above seasonal norms, just how far above will depend on cloud cover. The higher level clouds look to continue into the late morning. With their presence, probabilistic guidance has relatively large ranges for today's highs in some places. Medford has equal chances of having a daytime high of 60 degrees or 66 degrees, while Klamath Falls has equal chances of 58 and 63 degrees. The earlier clouds break, the warmer an area will be.

Tonight into Saturday, the upper ridge starts to give way to a cutoff low approaching from the central Pacific. A warm front from this low starting early Saturday morning, which will likely limit fog development into the daytime hours. Rainfall from the front will continue into early Sunday morning, then the cutoff low itself will move over the area and bring another round of rainfall into Monday. Forecast snow levels remain fairly high, at 8000-8500 feet with the warm front then 6000-7000 feet with the cutoff low. Chances for thunderstorms remain slight (10-15%) but noticeable with both of these features. The warm front may bring convective activity into Siskiyou and Modoc Counties, then the cutoff will bring those chances most of the forecast area (Excepting Coos/western Douglas and northern Lake counties). While these chances are slight, the possibility of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds is worth considering.

A shortwave ridge keeps activity minimal from Monday night into Tuesday morning, then a following trough looks to bring another round of precipitation on Wednesday. Precipitation would be focused west of and along the Cascades, with east side areas getting lighter activity. With snow levels forecast to drop to 4500-5000 feet and steady activity possible over the Cascades, periods of Advisory- level conditions may be possible for Cascades passes. Probabilistic guidance from the NBM shows a wide range, with 4 inches on the low end of the forecast to 12 inches at the high end.

A progressive pattern could remain in place, with long-term ensemble guidance showing a quiet period to end next week ahead of more precipitation next weekend. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, February 26, 2026...Area waters remain below advisory levels this morning. Breezy north to northeast winds increase this afternoon, combining with increasing northwest swell to produce steep seas in all waters this evening through late Saturday morning. Conditions improve late Saturday into Sunday as winds ease, and sub-advisory conditions are expected to persist through early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.