textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...12/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail across the region with isolated to scattered showers along and east of the Cascades and south of the OR/CA border. VFR conditions will prevail through the evening with low level clouds increasing across northern California and east of the Cascades late tonight through Thursday morning. This will bring a mix of low end VFR/MVFR ceilings tonight that will improve to VFR by late Thursday morning. For the Rogue/Illinois Valleys, low end VFR ceilings will also develop tonight around 12-15z. Expect the return of IFR/MVFR ceilings to the Umpqua Basin and along the coast tonight as well. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 248 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...

Key Points:

* Snowfall This Weekend - Light to moderate snowfall with snow levels down ~4000-5000ft - Impacts greatest across northern California

* Rain: Moderate to heavy rainfall starting this weekend - Rainfall greatest along/near the coast - Rainfall spreading west to east through the weekend - Not expecting widespread flooding but roads could be hazardous

* Wind This Weekend - Wind advisories possible for northern California and eastside

* Snow Next Week: Moderate Impacts - Potential widespread hazards for mountains/passes - Snow levels dropping each day starting this weekend - Eventually down to around 2000 ft Tuesday - Tuesday: 10% chance for valley floor snow (Trace - 0.5") - Moderate to heavy snowfall for elevations above 4000ft

* Rainfall Next Week - Continues through middle of next week - Not expecting widespread flooding but roads could be hazardous

* Wind Next Week - Breezy to gusty winds across northern California and eastside - Breezy winds also possible for some westside areas

Further Details:

A stronger and deeper trough is progged to develop and impact the region starting this weekend. Overall, the system has slowed down and hence we are not seeing the colder airmass infiltrate the region as early as previously forecast. However, for northern California this weekend, there will be light to moderate snowfall amounts for mainly higher elevations which include Mount Shasta, Trinity Alps, Marble Mountains, and the Warners. Only light amounts of snow are expected across the Siskiyous and Cascades. Additionally, we will see rainfall starting as early as Friday night, and will spread west to east through the weekend. Breezy to gusty winds could lead to some advisories for northern California and the eastside. Overall, this weekend could see minor to perhaps moderate impacts.

The series of upper level troughs will continue into next week. The combination of multiple systems and continued cold air advection will help bring snow levels down each subsequent day. Tuesday and Wednesday could see snow levels around 2000 feet. On Tuesday, the probability for snow levels to be lower than 2500 ft is currently around ~40%-75%, while the probability for snow levels to be lower than 1500 ft is currently around ~20%-30%. While snowfall amounts will continue to be highest across northern California, we will start to see higher amounts for Oregon when lower passes could be impacted. Rain will continue for much of the westside, but we are still not expecting widespread flooding. Ponding on roadways could lead to some travel disruption. Given the duration, and multiple rounds of precipitation, we may need to reevaluate the threat of flooding next week if we continue to see rainfall events pill up back to back. For example, rain on top of snowfall could become an issue for areas around Mount Shasta. Wind threats increase slightly next week for northern California, eastside areas, and perhaps some westside areas. Overall, we are expecting minor/moderate impacts from snow, rain, and wind. However, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty, so there may be changes and/or refinements. This is a split flow pattern, and these types of patterns can be hard to resolve. This whole forecast could become very different if the low cut-offs and remains over the Pacific for any duration. This means daily updates are going to be important going forward.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, February 11, 2026... Northerly winds are easing over area waters, allowing for slight improvement this afternoon. Steep seas continue in outer waters while inner waters are below advisory conditions. Those steep seas ease early Thursday morning, allowing for below advisory conditions through the day. Late Thursday night, long period westerly swell is expected to build steep seas in all waters. These swell-built steep seas will likely continue into the weekend.

A pattern change looks to bring active weather to area waters on Friday and possibly through next week. For marine areas, periods of gusty winds are possible but gale conditions are not expected. Those winds and incoming swell could keep seas unsettled through much of the week. Please stay tuned to future forecasts for the most recent expectation of sea state changes through this active period.

-TAD

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 900 PM PST Tuesday, February 10, 2026...An incoming west to northwest long period swell will produce a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast from late Thursday night into Friday afternoon.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther up beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the cold open waters of the Pacific Ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through Friday morning for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.