textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Another day of widespread showers across the region with pockets of thunderstorms. There is no severe thunderstorm threat today given the cooler airmass with ample cloud cover this afternoon. The upper level dynamics are also lacking compared to the previous two days. However, we have a widespread swath of 15% chance of cloud to ground lightning within about 20 km of any location for the remainder of the afternoon.

We lowered the QPF a bit based on what the latest models were showing as they seemed to be a little too wet. This has dropped down our snow totals over the higher terrain later tonight into tomorrow morning. However, we still kept the winter weather advisory as some impacts are anticipated over california state highway 3 in southern Siskiyou County. We are forecasting 6 inches over that highway above 5000 feet. Overall, pretty minimal impact here.

This closed low will move eastwards into northern California later tonight and most of the shower activity will persist overnight, although the intensity should decrease a bit as we lose daytime heating. With the low right over us on Sunday, we should see plenty of pop up showers in the cooler center of this low. The probability of thunderstorms will be around 15 to 20 percent again, mostly in northern California near the center of the low.

Eventually, all this stuff will move eastwards and a weak short wave will dive down the Oregon coast Monday. The probability of precipitation remains in the forecast as this shortwave produces enough lift in this moist environment. However, the amount of precipitation is notably lower on Monday and one will only see a few hundreths of precipitation.

Tuesday is the relative dry break for our area, although there will be a chance of rain in northern sections of the forecast area and the coast. An upper level trough will bring a well defined cold front through the forecast area by Wednesday with widespread precipitation and snow above 4000 feet. The ensembles are coming in better agreement with snow accumulation in the higher Cascades Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some even showing 1" an hour over 6 hours, which gives us hints there could be travel impacts. In any case, Crater Lake and other high terrain should see a quick 5 to 10 inches of snow by late Wednesday morning. There will be minor impacts on the higher passes since this is falling along a front overnight.

Temperatures will fall below normal behind this cold front on Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid 50's here in Medford and mid to lower 50's across all other populated areas in southern Oregon. Snow levels will actually dip to 2500 feet Wednesday night and Thursday, which tells you how cool the air is and how steep the lapse rates will be during Thursday. Precipitation will be next to nothing, so no snow around 2500 feet Thursday.

-Smith

AVIATION...11/18Z TAFs

A majority of the area will remain VFR into this afternoon. But, there is a wide range of conditions with scattered showers becoming widespread and accompanied by scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, hail, downpours, and MVFR ceilings with mountain obscuration. Gusty south winds are expected east of the Cascades in the afternoon and evening as well. Winds and thunderstorms ease after 03Z this evening. But, showers will continue through the night into Sunday morning, with increasing areas of valley IFR/MVFR between 08Z and 16Z.

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Saturday, April 11, 2026

Showers are expected through Monday morning. The unsettled weather will keep winds and short period northwest swell dominated seas below advisory level. Steep seas are possible beginning Tuesday afternoon with a stronger frontal passage. The front will bring increasing southwest winds as it moves across the waters on Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure offshore and a developing thermal trough inland will bring increasing north winds later Wednesday with the strongest winds south of Gold Beach and seas likely to remain steep.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.