textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

Satellite imagery depicts low clouds across many westside valleys including KMFR where visibility is also down to a quarter of a mile and less at times. Expecting this fog/low clouds to clear out this afternoon with mainly high clouds across the region later today. This will result in widespread VFR conditions through this afternoon and early evening. However, expecting very similar conditions overnight for westside valleys with both KRBG and KMFR seeing IFR conditions for low clouds and visibility restrictions through the morning hours on Thursday.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 506 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Aside from periods of increased south winds, low impact forecast through Thursday night.

* Areas of valley fog this morning could impact the morning commute due to low visibilities.

* Dry weather with warm afternoons (10-15 degrees above normal) through Thursday.

* Dangerous beach conditions Friday into the weekend.

* Active weather arrives early Friday and continues through the weekend. Strong winds, widespread rainfall and high snow levels (6000-7000 ft).

* Second, weaker, front late Saturday into Sunday brings another round of precipitation and gusty winds.

DISCUSSION...Another morning of fog/low clouds in West Side Valleys and along the coast/coastal waters with high level clouds streaming overhead. Widespread dense fog isn't anticipated this morning, but can't rule out patchy areas of it, so give some extra time for commuting, and remember to take it slow and easy with headlights on if encountering fog. Much like yesterday, foggy conditions will improve later this morning, but expect mid and high level clouds to persist with dry conditions and another day of warm temperatures. Roseburg observed a record high temperature yesterday, reaching 74 degrees and breaking the old record of 68 degrees set in 2001. Temperatures could come close to records again today with a forecast high of 69 degrees and the current record being 71 degrees set in 1999.

The pattern amplifies today with high pressure strengthening over the Intermountain West and a trough deepening over the eastern Pacific. A front will stall offshore as this pattern evolves and this will maintain gusty south to southwest winds that will trend stronger today compared to yesterday and stronger on Thursday compared to today. Dry and warm conditions will persist into Thursday with seasonably cold low temperatures and high temperatures hovering around 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year; expect mid 60s for the East Side/upper 60s maybe low 70s for the West Side.

Much like the last few weeks, another repeat of splitting flow is expected Thursday. As the offshore trough continues to deepen, the upper level energy splits. The southern branch moves inland into California and the northern branch gets directed at the Vancouver Island/Seattle region. As this energy stretches, there's the potential for weak surface low to develop along the front stalled offshore near 130 W, which will result in that strengthening southerly wind trend expected on Thursday. Gusts up to 35 mph would be the most likely scenario with this, with the potential for gusts up to 45 mph across the higher terrain and in the Shasta Valley. We'll go ahead a Wind Advisory for the Shasta Valley for Thursday. In addition, high resolution guidance shows some breezy southeast winds in the Rogue Valley as well for Thursday, strongest (gusts to 25 mph) from around Talent southward.

As the southern energy undercuts the ridge and weakens it, this allows for the Pacific storm door to open and bring an active pattern for the weekend and into next week. Ensembles generally agree on three waves impacting the region: Friday into Saturday, another Sunday into Monday, and another possible around mid week next week.

Snow levels will be high with this first wave, around 6000-7000 ft, so winter impacts will be limited. Winds, on the other hand, will be the main impact. 60-70 kt mid-level jet pushes inland early Friday, which could bring strong damaging winds to the coast, Shasta Valley and portions of the East Side. Guidance has trended a bit lower with these winds, weakening this mid-level jet (40-55 kt) as it reaches the East Side. Looking at forecast pressure gradients indicates a peak of -5 to -6 mb for the North Bend - Arcata gradient, which tends result in the strongest winds being limited to the coastal headlands. Meanwhile, the Medford - Redding gradient peaks around -5 to -7 mb which tends to result in fairly strong winds in the Shasta Valley and potentially borderline advisory level winds here in the Rogue Valley if winds line up. One limiting factor for the East Side is the timing of the front...since it's expected to move through early in the day Friday, this will limit the amount of mixing to bring down those stronger winds aloft. Currently, the chance of reaching or exceeding 55 mph for the East Side is around 20-40%, around 30-60% in the Shasta Valley and around 10-20% for the coast. We'll be evaluating the need for High Wind Watches today, but even if watches aren't issued, widespread high end advisory winds are very likely for these areas and to a lesser extent into the southern end of the Rogue Valley.

In addition to strong winds, we'll likely see our first significant rain event of the season. Current guidance brings 1-3" of precipitation for the coast over the course of 24 hours from Friday through Saturday morning. Inland, west of the Cascades, 0.75"-1" for much of the West Side, closer to 0.50" here in the Rogue Valley. East of the Cascades is currently expected to see 0.25"-0.40". Widespread flooding concerns are low this early in the season. An absence of snowpack removes the threat of rain-on-snow, and area reservoirs have ample space to store water. Urban ponding or small stream flooding is possible in areas with poor or obstructed drainage, so awareness of local conditions is beneficial.

In addition to wind/rain hazards, significantly dangerous beach conditions are expected beginning Friday and persisting through the weekend due to a very high and long period swell. See the Beach Hazards Discussion below for more details.

Another front looks to arrive Sunday. Winds should be weaker with this one, but snow levels are expected to be lower (4500-5000 ft). This will bear watching for potential winter impacts for the higher passes, but current guidance is only showing a few inches of accumulation up near Crater Lake. Active weather continues into next week, though there could be a break for early next week. Stay tuned for updates.

AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the majority of the region. LIFR conditions in fog have returned to most of the West Side Valleys, though the Umpqua Basin remains VFR likely due to high level clouds limiting fog development. There should be at least a brief period of LIFR conditions in the Umpqua Basin around sunrise, but will be shorter lived compared to the valleys where LIFR is already present. Meanwhile, fog and stratus blankets the marine waters and inland locations south of Cape Arago. In general expect improving conditions between 16z-18z this morning, with VFR conditions expected through the afternoon. Breezy south winds are expected across the area today, especially along the coast, east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday, November 11, 2026...Gusty south winds, strongest north of Cape Blanco, will persist this morning as a warm front lifts north through the region. Very steep and hazardous seas will continue north of Cape Blanco, along with the potential for isolated gale force gusts at times through this morning. Winds will diminish behind the front this afternoon, but steep seas and advisory strength south winds are expected through Thursday.

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate late Thursday into Friday as a strong front moves in, bringing strong gales (possibly storm force gusts) and very high and very steep seas. Yet another major long- period swell will move into the waters following this front late Friday. It is expected to peak Friday night with wave heights in the coastal waters forecast to reach 25 to 30 feet with a period of 19 seconds. Another front is expected Saturday into Sunday, and while it will be somewhat weaker than the first front, another round of gales looks possible with this system. Additional, another significant long periods swell will follow that front. Again, likely not quite as high as the first front, but expect very high, steep and very hazardous, even dangerous, sea conditions to persist through the weekend and into early next week. Mariners should keep a close eye on the forecasts as this especially impactful period draws closer.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday, November 11, 2026...Dangerous conditions are expected along area beaches Friday through the weekend. Wave model guidance is depicting a major, long period westerly swell arriving with an expected storm system late this week into this weekend. The swell is forecast to arrive along the Oregon coast Friday and peak late Friday night through Saturday morning. Peak wave heights are forecast to be 25 to 30 feet at 19 second period, which translates to breaking surf heights of 33 to 38 feet. This would result in exceptionally high and dangerous surf conditions, with completely inundated beaches, and potential dune overwash and erosion. Another heavy long period swell is anticipated behind a second front late Saturday into Sunday. This is likely to maintain hazardous beach conditions as breaking wave heights of 25- 27 ft persist into Monday. Those with coastal and marine interests should stay up to date with the latest forecasts as this event approaches.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...High Surf Warning from 10 AM Friday to 10 PM PST Saturday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350- 370.