textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Fog is starting to fill the Umpqua Valley, with tripcheck cameras showing impaired visibility at multiple spots on Interstate 5, especially at Canyon Mountain. Cameras also show some development over western Grants Pass. Satellite imagery is indicating fog developing in the Illinois Valley and parts of the Klamath River Valley. Working against the fog is an approaching cold front that looks to bring showers to Coos, Curry, Josephine, and Douglas counties early this morning. While amounts will be light, the combination of rainfall in those counties and southerly winds across the area may be enough to break up west side valley fog. For other areas, today looks to remain mild and uneventful.

Please see the previous discussion below for more details on the short- and long-term forecast. -TAD

AVIATION...27/12z TAFs

An approaching cold front is already bringing showers to the Oregon coast, although levels remain at VFR at North Bend. Fog in the Umpqua Valley has caused LIFR levels early this morning, but mixing and rainfall from the front should help to clear the fog. Activity from the front looks to stay over Coos, Curry, Josephine, and Douglas counties. Levels should generally stay at VFR or MVFR as the front moves over these areas today, but locally lower ceilings and visibilities are possible and passing showers or low ceilings may obscure terrain.

Other areas look to stay at VFR levels through the daytime. Low ceilings or fog may return to low-lying areas tonight into early Friday morning, although guidance only expects development in the Umpqua Valley. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Southerly winds increase again tonight into Thursday morning as a cold front passes through the region. Meanwhile, a heavy northwest swell will move into the waters late Thursday morning and afternoon. These conditions will bring the return of steep seas to all waters, with very steep seas north of Cape Blanco due to a mix of wind waves and the heavy swell.

Conditions improve late Friday as winds turn northerly then persist through the weekend and into early next week. Conditions hazardous to small craft could return south of Cape Blanco on Sunday. Meanwhile, a long period swell (peaking around 6 to 9 ft at 16 to 19 seconds) builds in the waters early next week, which could maintain advisory level conditions into early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 239 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2025/

DISCUSSION...A warm front has lifted north with high pressure and mostly clear skies across the area this afternoon. A low pressure center will near the coast of Washington and northern Oregon tonight with a cold front moving onshore by Thursday morning. This front will be weaken as it moves inland. Models and ensembles continue to support moderate to high (60-100%) chances for light rain along the coast, inland into the coastal mountains, Umpqua Valley, southwest Josephine County and into the south- central Oregon Cascades. Low chances (10-30%) for rain are also expected for the Rogue Valley in Jackson County, northeast Josephine County, far western Siskiyou County, and far northern Klamath County. East of the Cascades, expect dry but breezy to gusty conditions on Thursday.

Then, Thursday night the low moves inland north of the area. This will bring onshore flow and a trough over the area. Ensembles show chances for rain showers continuing along the coast (70-95%) along the coast and inland across Josephine (30-60% chance), Douglas County (70-90% chance) and across the south- central Cascades (35-75%). Low chances for showers (10-40%) are expected across Jackson, far western Siskiyou and northern Klamath counties as well. Precipitation will be light and snow levels will be high, around 6000-7500 feet on Thursday, lowering slightly around 5500-6000 feet Thursday night. So expect little if any snow is expected, except for higher peaks in the south-central Oregon Cascades. Light scattered showers linger into Friday across northwest portions of the CWA, before tapering off during the afternoon.

On Saturday, models show a building high pressure ridge offshore with a shortwave trough moving down from the north late Saturday and Saturday night. This trough may be far enough east that little if any showers will develop over the area. The National Blend of Models is showing low chances (10-30%) for light rain and higher mountain snow across the area during this period Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. We will continue to monitor and update the forecast as confidence increases. Sunday and Monday, models are trending towards a high pressure ridge building inland and a longwave trough east of the area. This will likely bring stable and dry weather to the area with cool to cold overnight/morning temperatures. Then, Monday night and Tuesday, ensembles support a shortwave trough moving down into the region from the northwest, bringing chances for light rain and mountain snow. However, there remains significant variability in the details for this period.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-370.