textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Scattered post-frontal showers continue to move up over the CWA early this morning, but lightning has been absent. Some more developed storms are moving across Coos, Curry, and Josephine counties as of the writing of this discussion, but this first round of activity should ease before the afternoon. Widespread showers will increase later this morning as a cutoff low moves inland from the Pacific and could continue into early Monday morning. Parts of Jackson, Douglas, and northern Lake and Klamath counties may see up to 0.75 inches of rainfall in this timeframe, while other areas have forecast rainfall amounts in the 0.l0 to 0.25 inch range. Chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast, with the highest chances today over west side areas. These chances are still on the low end (15-20% for west side counties, some 10% chances across Lake and Klamath counties per the NBM). SPC ensemble paintballs have the most concentrated signals over Jackson and Douglas counties, with widespread but isolated paintballs east of the Cascades. Thunderstorms may bring locally moderate to heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds and lightning activity. Given the broad areas covered by thunderstorm chances, please consider current conditions if traveling today.

A shortwave ridge will keep Tuesday generally calm, with warming east of the Cascades. Showers look to develop along the coast late Tuesday night ahead of an cold front passing over the area on Wednesday. Another round of widespread precipitation is expected, with the highest forecast amounts over the coast and the Cascades with 0.5 to 1.0 inches of precipitation possible. For lower elevation areas, expected rainfall amounts are unimpactful. Snow levels in the 4500-5000 foot range will allow for parts of the Cascades to see accumulating snowfall on Wednesday morning. Considering the deterministic forecast, there's a sharp divide in snowfall by elevation. Areas in the Cascades at the 4000-5500 foot range may see 1 to 2 inches of snowfall, with areas above 5500 feet forecast to see 5 to 10 inches of snowfall. Snowfall rates on Wednesday morning remain a concern at those higher elevations, as parts of highways 62, 230, and 138 near Crater Lake and Diamond Lake may see snowfall rates between 0.5 inches and 1 inch per hour Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Light snow showers are possible east of the Cascades, but significant accumulation is not expected.

Behind the Wednesday front, there's broad agreement in an upper ridge developing over the Pacific but some variation in the details. ECMWF ensemble members show agreement of precipitation sliding over the ridge and bringing light coastal rainfall late next weekend. GFS outcomes have a more resilient ridge bringing warmer temperatures and drier conditions. NBM probabilistic guidance reflects this uncertainty with interquartile temperatures in the 10 to 15 degree range past next weekend. To contrast with conditions that have more agreement, these ranges are usually 2 to 5 degrees. As much variation as there may be in the models, overall there's very little indication of possible significant activity in early March. There's just figuring out if daytime highs will be seasonable or warm. -TAD

AVIATION...01/12Z TAFS

Active weather will likely bring fluctuating flight levels through most of the TAF period. The Umpqua Valley will be an exception to fluctuations this morning, as fog is bringing IFR to LIFR levels to Roseburg and may persist into the afternoon. For other areas, ceilings are generally at VFR levels but showers moving from south to north are bringing locally lower ceilings and visibilities. Most of the activity is west of the Cascades, but scattered showers are moving over east side areas as well. This overall pattern will likely last into tonight. Instability with these active conditions may bring isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening.

Precipitation chances continue but start to decrease on early Monday morning.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Sunday, March 1, 2026

Light south winds and relatively calm seas are expected today through Monday night. Winds increase and seas steepen Tuesday into Wednesday as a front moves through the area. Steep west seas follows through the end of the week, with winds becoming north Friday into next weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.