textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend continues Thursday and Friday.

* A dry cold front will move through Saturday with most cooling felt in Oregon.

* Dry, mild weather is expected Sunday.

* Stronger front approaches coast Sunday night into Monday, but rain chances keep lowering since most precipitation is now associated with low pressure farther offshore.

DISCUSSION

Another warm period is upon us. High pressure will move in aloft tonight into Thursday and this will bring above normal warmth through Friday. Even some warm readings will be felt all the way to the coast on Thursday due to low-level offshore flow. Overall, temps will be about 10-15F above normal both Thursday and Friday, with up to 20F above normal for inland areas N&W of the Cascades/Siskiyous. Locally breezy conditions will be felt on the upper slopes/ridges if you find yourself out for a mountain hike, but also perhaps in the Ashland area since winds aloft there are aligned from the ESE tonight through Friday morning. More marine influence is expected along the coast Friday, so it should cool a bit there compared to Thursday.

A dry cold front will move through Saturday, so it'll be cooler for most areas with more clouds across NW sections due to a deeper marine push. Temperatures should drop back closer to normal west of the Cascades, but remain about 10F above normal south and east of the mountains. Would expect potential for breezes during the afternoon, but models aren't really showing much wind at this time.

Aside from some morning clouds west of the Cascades and along the coast, Sunday should be dry and mild.

The next frontal system will approach the coast Sunday night. Older model runs had been showing a fairly healthy front swinging through the PacNW Monday with a good chance for rain. But, recent developments are showing split flow (harbinger of this winter?) with most of the precipitation occurring beneath the developing low pressure offshore. As the front approaches it stalls, and the low dives southward far enough offshore to keep much of the precip out over the ocean. Rain chances are still running in the 20-40% range for Monday. Coastal areas stand the best shot at some precip, but probably not the rain needed after such a dry start to October.

After that, models are showing that low headed into southern California. It's conceivable that some of that moisture could eventually come farther north into our area later in the week. But, uncertainty is high and other plausible scenarios indicate much of that could easily escape and miss to our south and east. -Spilde

AVIATION...14/18Z TAFs

VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals. East to southeast winds increase over the mountains, especially the Cascades/Siskiyous, late tonight and during Thursday morning. These winds, just a couple of thousand feet AGL, will be approximately 25-30 kt from the ESE. This will bring an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport around and after 12Z, lasting until about 17Z due to a strong inversion, which should prevent those winds from reaching the surface. It could get breezy in Ashland, however. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas south of Cape Blanco will diminish through tonight. Improved conditions are expected Thursday into Friday. Another round of north winds is possible this weekend, then south winds and rain are possible early next week with the arrival of low pressure offshore.

FIRE WEATHER

An unseasonably warm air mass moves in over SW Oregon and NorCal late this week (Thu/Fri). This will bring elevated fire weather risk, especially over the higher terrain. Offshore winds (E-SE) strengthen tonight into Thursday morning, peaking over the upper slopes and ridges, especially the Cascades, west side foothills and Siskiyou mtns with peak gusts of 25-35 mph. Expect worsening mid slope/ridge RH recoveries during the overnights (worst Thursday night from the Cascades west, and then Friday night from the Cascades east). Winds should subside a bit by Friday night, but still could be gusty Thursday night/Friday morning. A very dry day is expected Friday with afternoon minimum RH in the teens in many areas, perhaps even some single digit readings in portions of NorCal and over the East Side. Right now, these conditions do not meet Red Flag warning criteria, due to either moderate fire danger, or not long enough duration of combined critical wind/rh levels. Even so, conditions will be elevated to near critical (especially in the Umpqua NF/southern Oregon Cascades and perhaps Modoc at times). As a result, we opted to headline the Fire Weather Planning Forecast.

On Saturday, a dry cold front will swing through and humidity will increase for all but the far S&E sections of the area. Winds don't appear to be too strong with this front, so fire concerns lessen. Humidity recoveries will be much better area wide Saturday night. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.