textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures trend cooler today, then are generally seasonable Sunday and slightly above normal Monday. Enhanced breezes are expected this afternoon, weaker on Sunday then breezy to gusty on Monday.

* A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures and elevated rainfall chances Tuesday through Friday, with best chances from the Cascades west. Expect a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms on Tuesday as well.

DISCUSSION

An upper trough centered over Washington will bring cooler temperatures to the area today. However, precipitation will stay generally north of the area, except for a low chance (5-10%) for light rain along the coast north of Cape Blanco. Gusty winds and dry humidities are expected this afternoon for areas east of the Cascades.

The trough shifts east tonight with zonal flow over the area on Sunday. This pattern will bring dry weather and near normal temperatures.

Dry weather continues into Monday and an upper trough approaches the coast late Monday. Ahead of this trough expect gusty afternoon/evening winds east of the Cascades. These winds combined with dry humidities may result in elevated fire weather conditions east of the Cascades.

Then, ensembles show a pattern change expected beginning Tuesday and Wednesday, as a stronger low moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and towards the region. This will result in much cooler temperatures (8 to 12 degrees below normal) and chances for rainfall. As the low approaches the Pacific Northwest coast on Tuesday, there is a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms across inland areas and chances for showers (25-40%) from the coast inland to the Cascades as well as into portions of Klamath County and northern Lake County. Then, a front will gradually move into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will bring increased chances for light to moderate rainfall, with highest chances (50-75%) from the Southern Oregon Cascades west as well as chances (25-60%) across Siskiyou, Klamath and portions of Lake counties. Rainfall may be moderate along the coast and into the Umpqua. Gusty west to southwest winds are likely east of the Cascades in the afternoons/evenings Tuesday and Wednesday.

The upper low remains over the region Thursday into Friday bringing continued chances for showers along with continued cool temperatures. However, models and ensembles vary on the position and strength of this low which will factor into how much showers develop over the area.

AVIATION...29/12Z TAFs

Along the coast, areas of LIFR in fog are present north of Cape Blanco and from Brookings south. This is expected to burn off in the late morning with VFR returning. Inland, a stratus later is present in the Umpqua Basin and banked up against the southern Oregon Cascades with MVFR conditions. Stratus will gradually lift and clear to VFR in the late morning.

Elsewhere, VFR will continue to prevail, with gusty winds again Saturday afternoon.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, August 29, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep seas are present south of Cape Blanco. Gusty winds spread northward late Saturday into sunday, with steep seas extending into the waters north of Cape Blanco from late Sunday morning into Monday morning. Winds will be strongest in the afternoons and evenings through Sunday. Conditions are likely to improve Monday into Tuesday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.