textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Showers continue today. Gusty winds expected from the Cascades eastward. * Showers taper off tonight and Thursday morning. Daytime temperatures trend warmer Thursday into Friday. * Increasing chances for showers Saturday and Sunday.

An upper low is moving inland today and will gradually shift east of the area tonight. This will bring continued showers to the area through today, tapering off tonight into Thursday morning. Additionally, gusty west winds are expected for areas from the Cascades east (gusts 25-40 mph). Thunderstorm chances are lower today than yesterday but there remains a low 5-10% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon.

As the low moves eastward, ensembles show showers tapering off tonight with some lingering light showers near the coast Thursday morning. Cool morning temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday mornings, with localized frost possible in some valleys west of the Cascades (mainly the Illinois Valley) and temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s east of the Cascades. Daytime temperatures will trend warmer Thursday into Friday. By Friday, the National Blend of Models (NBM) supports highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for valleys west of the Cascades and in the 60s east of the Cascades. A weak disturbance will move into northern California on Friday. However, expect continued dry weather with only a 5 percent chance for showers, mainly over Siskiyou County.

Saturday and Sunday, a couple upper level disturbances move into the area. The first, an upper low/trough tracks into northern California on Saturday. This is followed by another weak low moving down from the north on Sunday. This pattern supports increased chances for showers Saturday and Sunday. Additionally, weak instability and CAPE supports a slight chance (15-20%) for thunderstorms across northern California on Saturday with a 10% chance across southern Oregon. A low chance (10%) for thunderstorms continues on Sunday.

AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs

The upper level low will track eastward today. This pattern will result in continued scattered to numerous showers, tapering off tonight. For inland areas, expect a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions this morning with local IFR possible (10-15% chance) in valleys, including Medford and Roseburg. Then, expect mainly VFR conditions with local MVFR in heavier showers during the afternoon. Areas of mountain obscurations will continue through the day. Gusty west winds will develop in the afternoon east of the Cascades. Along the coast, widespread MVFR is expected through the day. This pattern will persist into Wednesday evening and night. However, with showers tapering off and partial clearing, expect chances (10-15%) for IFR to develop for inland valleys.

MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Below advisory seas continue today as a low pressure system gradually moves inland. Increasing northwest swell follows Wednesday night into Thursday, along with a period of increased south winds which will push conditions just into Small Craft Advisory north of Coos Bay. Additionally, north winds will increase over the waters Thursday and Friday as swell persists. This pattern will result in steep seas in most of the area, especially in the waters south of Cape Blanco on Thursday evening into Friday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.