textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion updated.

AVIATION...22/06Z TAFS

Conditions will remain mostly VFR this evening into tonight, but with strong, gusty southerly low level winds. These long-duration winds are creating areas of low level wind shear. Areas along the coast will see conditions lower to MVFR with rain intensity becoming moderate late tonight into Sunday morning as a front approaches. This will also create obscuration of the higher terrain. Areas of MVFR will spread inland into areas west of the Cascades Sunday morning. East of the Cascades, VFR and strong southerly winds are expected to persist into Sunday afternoon. Sunday evening, precipitation will remain over the coast with areas of precipitation inland to the Cascades and only isolated to scattered showers east of the Cascades. Sunday evening, expect mainly MVFR from the Cascades west with VFR and local MVFR east of the Cascades.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 256 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026/

DISCUSSION...A few changes crept up on us today. First, winds in the Rogue Valley and for many areas west of the Cascades have come in stronger than expected. Winds here at the Medford airport have reached 45 mph, with reports of over 50 mph further south. Winds have gusted to nearly 75 mph over the Siskiyous, and earlier this morning, a cloud of blowing snow was seen drifting off of Mt. McLoughlin, showing just how strong winds are just above the surface. With these winds likely to continue through the evening and into tonight, have opted to expand the Wind Advisory in the Rogue Valley to include Medford proper, as well as to include nearly all of the higher terrain of Douglas, Josephine, and eastern Coos and Curry counties.

Also, with the latest model runs and observations showing a northward shift in the main moisture plume, and with higher snow levels pushing into the region, precipitation/snow amounts have decreased significantly. Several inches of snow are still expected in the Mount Shasta region and in the mountains of western and central Siskiyou County, but much less than previously forecast, and now the expected amounts do not reach Winter Storm Warning criteria. As a result, have downgraded the warning to an Advisory instead. The lesser precipitation amounts have also decreased our hydrological concerns, with all rivers now expected to remain below action stage, although some, such as Deer Creek near Roseburg, still coming close. We will keep an eye on those potential trouble spots, but the chances of high water are much decreased, at least for this event.

The large trough responsible for swinging this system through the area will remain offshore, spinning well to our west, but sending additional waves/fronts through the region for the next few days, with several rounds of breezy winds and precipitation expected form tonight through Monday. Then, as the trough closes off and retreats towards Hawaii, a classic Pineapple Express sets up, with a moisture plume from near Hawaii riding the southwest flow directly into southern Oregon and northern California late MOnday night into Tuesday. As the current storm looks to be less of a precipitation maker and more of a wind producer, the event on Tuesday will be the opposite, with less wind but potentially much more rain. And with this moisture coming from a tropical source, snow levels will be much higher (7000-8000 ft), so snow will not be a concern, but rain and snow melt will be. We will need to closely monitor area rivers and streams for quick rises and potential flooding concerns.

Once this system exits Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, upper level ridging returns to the area, with dry and warmer conditions expected for the remainder of the week (despite the NBM and therefore the official forecast keeping rain chances ongoing throughout the week). Area valleys, however, will likely see strong inversions with fog and low clouds overnight and into the mornings, especially west of the Cascades.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Saturday, February 21, 2026...The main updates this afternoon were to extend the Storm Warning across the inner waters through 4 AM Sunday morning, and extend the Hazardous Seas Warning that follows into Monday morning.

A strong storm system will linger over the eastern Pacific through the weekend. This system will spin up multiple surface low pressures along 130W, the strongest of which is expected to affect the waters into Sunday.

Conditions will deteriorate into early Sunday morning as the strongest low pressure deepens offshore and storm force winds increase to peak strength with south gusts of up to 60 kt. Seas will build further, with very high and dangerous seas, peaking around 22 to 28 ft across the outer waters and around 18 to 25 ft for the inner waters. This will make for treacherous bar crossings through early Sunday. Winds ease to gales on Sunday morning, then just below gales Sunday afternoon. But, seas are likely to remain very steep and hazardous into Tuesday. There is a possibility of gales on Monday into Monday night. Improved conditions are likely from Tuesday night into Friday.

HYDROLOGY...A moderate atmospheric river will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall this weekend into early next week. The first frontal system is forecast to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday with multiple waves of precipitation continuing Sunday night through Monday, then a Pineapple Express Monday night into Tuesday. Preliminary estimates are showing widespread amounts of 4 to 6 inches along the coast with locally 8 inches in the favored coast ranges of Curry County. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the Mount Shasta region and also other favored areas of western Siskiyou County.

Small streams and creeks are likely to rise rapidly during this event with nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways during periods of heavy rain. Significant rises on main stem rivers and flashier creeks are also expected. Given that rivers are still running fairly low for this time of year, river flooding potential is a bit lower than usual, but there is at least a low probability of some flooding, especially in the Coquille Basin.

The warm rain expected MOnday night into Tuesday, with snow levels well above 7000 feet, will cause concern for heavy rain to combine with snowmelt, which would lead to even higher rises.

While the exact scenario for the heavy rainfall and potential flooding remains uncertain, we will continue to monitor the forecasts and update accordingly. Flood Watches may be issued by the National Weather Service if this situation worsens.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PST Saturday, February 21, 2026...Storm force winds will create hazardous beach conditions tonight through Sunday. Wave heights are expected to reach a peak early Sunday morning. Large breaking wave heights of 23 to 27 ft are expected primarily along the beaches and shorelines of Curry County with south and southwest facing beaches being the most impacted. These large breaking waves could inundate beaches and low lying shorelines. Beach erosion is possible and exposed infrastructure may be damaged. If you have plans to visit area beaches this weekend, stay away from the surf zone and off of jetties. Area beaches will become hazardous due to dangerous surf conditions.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Sunday for ORZ023>026-030-031.

High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022.

High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for CAZ080-082- 083.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Sunday for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for PZZ356.

Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.