textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)

Key Points:

* We continue to see overall minimal impacts through this week * By far and large, mostly dry conditions expected through Fri * Next reasonable chance for precipitation is Saturday - Could be as early as Friday night - Snowfall for elevations mainly above 5,000 ft * Morning fog may be a common theme this week for westside valleys Further Details:

The upper levels (500mb) can be summed up--with one caveat--as a ridge aloft through Friday. The caveat here is the ridge does shift westward enough on Tuesday to allow meridional flow to bring a very progress area of PVA through the region. The moisture is lacking in this scenario, and the main impact here may be the colder airmass advecting in from Canada. Outside of very isolated light rainfall, most areas will likely be dry. Tuesday night (Wed morning) is in fact the coldest time period in the forecast and fog (or freezing fog) may come to fruition which could lead to ice accumulation on elevated surfaces Wednesday morning. Tomorrow morning may be another candidate for light icing on elevated surfaces, but temperatures may be borderline Tuesday morning (i.e. less confidence compared to Wed morning).

Overall, deterministic and ensemble guidance are in fairly good agreement with the general pattern this week. We do start to see some minor discrepancies Friday as models bring in the system where we could see widespread precipitation chances on Saturday. At this point, the impacts look to be minimal in any solution with rainfall expected for most areas, but some elevations above 5K feet could see snowfall amounts around 2-5 inches. In typical fashion, coastal areas will see the highest QPF amounts, but the Umpqua Basin and the Cascades will also be on this list of higher QPF amounts. At this time, flooding appears unlikely, but nuisance type flooding with ponding on roadways will be possible. Additionally, there may be isolated flood prone areas that have poor drainage that could see further nuisance type flooding. That being said, not seeing any notable river rises with this system, and we are not expecting widespread flooding.

-Guerrero

AVIATION...01/18z TAFs

This morning, MVFR in stratus is occuring the Umpqua Basin and Coquille valley with areas of LIFR/IFR in fog the Rogue, Illinois and Applegate valleys. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period for the coast and east. Valley low clouds and fog are expected to clear to VFR around 19- 21z. As a weak disturbance moves into the region tonight and early Tuesday, high level cloud cover is expected across southwest Oregon. The will likely limit the development of fog tonight with more isolated and patchy MVFR/IFR in valley fog, although the Medford TAF has fog by 13Z as enough moisture could be present. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across northern California through the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 215 PM PST Monday, December 1, 2025

Breezy to gusty northerly winds will continue through Wednesday, with gusts south of Port Orford reaching Small Craft Advisory strength. Additionally, long period west swell will build into the waters late today and tonight, then peak on Tuesday (with west swell building to 8 to 9 feet at 16 seconds and combined seas of 9 to 11 feet). Steep seas are expected across the waters south of Cape Blanco through at least Wednesday, and some areas south of Gold Beach may see Hazardous Seas Tuesday into Tuesday night. Seas may also become steep north of Cape Blanco Tuesday night and Wednesday. Conditions may briefly improve for Thursday, but the pattern is likely to turn more active late in the week.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF

Updated 215 PM PST Monday, December 1, 2025...A long period swell is expected to build to around 7 to 9 ft at 16 to 18 seconds late this afternoon into Tuesday morning with combined seas of 9 to 11 feet. While seas will be steep, high surf conditions are not expected along beaches. However, these conditions will bring a risk for dangerous sneaker waves. If you have plans to visit the coast today, please be aware of this sneaker wave potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to the beaches for another day. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean!

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for ORZ021- 022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ356-376.