textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Only minor impacts expected the next several days * Warm, above normal temperatures this weekend * Low pressure enters the region Sunday - Precip chances start Sunday and continue through Wednesday - Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday - Advisory snowfall for Siskiyou County Mon-Tues * Drying trend towards the end of the week

Further Details:

A transition will occur today as an upper low strengthens off the coast and nudges towards the coast. This cut-off low will meander over the ocean/west coast for a couple days before coming inland Tuesday into Wednesday.

We will see precipitation chances increase tonight along/near the coast and eventually spreading west to east through midweek. We are not seeing a signal for heavy rain through this stretch, but rather a consistent light rain for a few days. Rainfall totals for 72 hours ending Thursday continue to show values around 1.00"-1.50" for the higher end amounts. Highest amounts are expected along/near the coast and northern California. Cascades could also see the higher amounts of QPF before switching over to snow. Westside valleys and eastside areas will be considerably less with 72 hour totals only around 0.25"-0.50". MUCAPE values on Tuesday continue to show around 200-500 J/kg, so we are expecting at least some isolated thunder. MUCAPE on Wednesday is only around a couple hundred J/kg so likely less chance for lightning. Not expecting any severe weather but lightning and occasional strong gusts (30-45 mph) will be possible through this stretch.

Snow levels eventually drop Monday afternoon and further more Tuesday night for snow accumulation over the Cascades, eastside areas, and northern California. At this time, snow amounts near the Trinity Alps in Siskiyou County will be high enough to warrant a Winter Weather Advisory late Monday morning through Tuesday morning. This will impact mainly remote higher terrain areas.

By Thursday, upper level low will be absorbed back into the main flow. A dry north/northwesterly flow will become evident over the forecast area. While the NBM holds onto spotty PoPs Thursday onward, we are anticipating precipitation chances to dwindle Thursday through at least parts of next weekend. Model differences in the extended come to fruition around Friday night, so confidence is low on the details Saturday onward.

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

VFR conditions will prevail through most of tonight with lowering and thickening clouds as low pressure offshore edges eastward. Expect gusty southerly winds this afternoon, especially in the Shasta Valley and over the East Side. Even the Rogue Valley, including Medford, will get breezy. Wind shear doesn't appear to be a high risk at this time, but mountain wave turbulence in Siskiyou County is likely. Precipitation chances remain low at the coast through tonight, but some light rain and lower ceilings could impact the marine waters. Eventually, higher rain chances and lowering ceilings (to MVFR) move onto the coast either late tonight or Monday morning. We expect an uptick in winds again later Monday morning into the afternoon for similar locations (Shasta Valley, Medford and the East Side). Increasing southerly flow into Siskiyou County, including the Mt Shasta region, will cause lowering ceilings (to MVFR) there as well Monday afternoon along with rain and high elevation snow (above 5000 feet). Precipitation will be more showery north of the Siskiyous.

-Spilde

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Sunday, April 19, 2026

Low pressure offshore will bring a period of active weather tonight through Monday, with periods of gusty south winds and elevated seas/swell. Winds are likely to be strongest through Monday evening with a period of steep seas hazardous to small craft mostly beyond 10 NM from shore. Conditions should improve Tuesday as the low gradually pushes into Northern California. Then, increasing NW swell follows Wednesday into Thursday with a return of north to northwest winds.

-Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM PDT Monday for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376.