textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Fire weather concerns continue this afternoon as dry conditions with elevated afternoon winds persist. A Red Flag Warning continues into tonight for Modoc, southwest Klamath, and southwest Lake counties.

* Northerly surface breezes in Jackson County will push more smoke into the Rogue Valley today. The most accumulation has been in the Medford and Grants Pass area, with meaningful accumulation through Ashland and lesser amounts reaching the Illinois Valley. Smoke may further accumulate overnight once daytime breezes dissipate.

* A shift to southerly flow looks to bring atmospheric moisture and instability to start the week ahead. Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Monday and increase on Tuesday, but the most recent model runs are showing decreasing support for widespread activity.

* Warm and dry conditions may return on Friday and could continue through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Southwest flow aloft between a Pacific trough and midwest high pressure remains a guiding feature for the short- term forecast. With a tighter pressure gradient continuing between these features, afternoon and evening breezes will remain slightly higher than usual. For the Red Flag Warning area, gusts of 25 to 30 mph are possible. For other east side areas, afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25 mph range. Cloud cover moving from south to north over east side areas indicates the arrival of monsoonal moisture along that upper flow.

Surface winds in Jackson County are starting a turn to the north, which looks to push smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire towards the Rogue Valley. Air quality sensors already show affects from lingering smoke from Grants Pass to Ashland and trace effects into the Applegate and Illinois valleys. Northerly breezes in Jackson County ease into the late evening/overnight period, allowing smoke to linger in low-lying areas. Individuals with air quality concerns may want to carefully consider travel plans in this timeframe, especially with the absence of winds capable of helping smoke clear out of the area.

A cutoff low slides into the Pacific trough, making the feature deeper and shifting flow aloft to be more southerly in orientation on Monday. High pressure over the CONUS will also increase, nudging daytime highs to 5-10 degrees above normal early in the week ahead.

This will continue to guide monsoonal moisture over the area, with cloud cover over the east side this afternoon representing the arrival of that moisture. A combination of this atmospheric moisture as well as upper level instability has made afternoon and evening thunderstorms a concern for east side areas to start the week ahead. Today's SPC CAMs shows isolated pulse thunderstorms are possible over easternmost Modoc and Lake counties on Monday. While Tuesday still has potential for more widespread activity, the latest model runs show instability moving eastward which would limit activity over the CWA. Additionally, if cloud cover continues into Tuesday morning, surface heating would be limited which would take convective influence away into the afternoon. That said, this is one model run and additional runs will help to establish confidence in this interpretation. Chances for isolated thunderstorm activity remain for Wednesday and occasionally even Thursday, but look to be isolated at most.

In the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, the cutoff low will start drifting east then northeast, cooling daytime highs slightly on Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures rebound to end the week as higher pressure moves in to take its place. With the ridge axis remaining farther east, staying in the 5-10 degrees above normal range is generally expected. To illustrate this, NBM probabilistic data keeps a 40-50% chance for Medford to reach 100 degrees for Friday through next Sunday with lower 20-30% chances into the Shasta Valley and the rest of the Rogue Valley. NWS HeatRisk data shows Moderate levels for these areas, which is not Advisory-worthy but still helps to support the forecast of warmer conditions for next weekend. -TAD

AVIATION...12/18 TAFs

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid TAF period with one caveat along/near the coast. Smoke is still present in parts of the Rogue Valley.

Northwest winds will become breezy this afternoon. A return to MVFR/IFR conditions is forecast for the coast tonight while winds begin to weaken.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, July 12, 2026

Gusty north winds is bringing conditions hazardous to small craft in all waters through Monday morning. Steep seas linger in areas south of Port Orford through Monday evening. Conditions improve late Monday, but areas of steep seas and borderline advisory winds may persist into mid-week for areas south of Port Orford.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 PM Sunday, July 12, 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue today, with a Red Flag Warning in place for southeast portions of the forecast area through tonight.

Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the afternoons and evening continue across northern California and eastside areas. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens today coupled with those gusty winds. This will result in critical fire weather conditions across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 today.

Thunderstorms are possible through the first half of the week as monsoonal moisture pumps into the region. There is currently a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon in southeastern Modoc County before expanding to more of Lake and eastern Klamath counties. However, Tuesday looks to have a higher chance for thunderstorms which could result in lightning over dry fuels for northern California and eastside areas. While chances continue into Wednesday, the overall threat will be lower when compared to Tuesday. Warm and dry conditions are possible over next weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.