textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...17/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail across the region with gusty northwest to north winds. Scattered showers persist from the Rogue-Umpqua Divide north and westward, with widespread cumulus along and west of the Cascades. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, including along the coast and over the coastal waters. Winds and showers will generally trend lower/less, but a potent shortwave moving through the region tonight will maintain breezy north winds. Stronger north to northeast winds are expected to develop area wide Sunday morning and persist through the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 245 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026/

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers continue to move through the forecast area this afternoon as cool moist air moves in over areas with sufficient surface heating. The trough to our north is also helping produce some vertical lift. Not a lot of rain is accumulating under these showers with liquid accumulation under 0.1 inches for a lot of surface stations. Look for an additional few hundreths under these showers for the remainder of the evening hours.

By tonight, weather concerns and impacts remain very low as the upper level trough traverses the region. Temperatures trend lower compared to yesterday with lows in the mid to upper 30's in many valleys west of the Cascades and upper 20's east of the Cascades. During Sunday, it will be another cool day as the upper trough departs, although PoPs will be 0 as some drier north east winds fill into southern Oregon and northern California.

Lows will trend a bit lower Sunday night as drier cooler air flows into the region. There is some risk of frost in the valleys overnight, although the latest forecast has lows in the upper 30's here in Medford. It looks like some of our cooler spots, like Provolt and the Applegate could see frost Sunday night.

By Monday, high pressure begins to build in the Pacific with 500 mb heights increasing over our area. Temperatures will respond by warming into the 70's across the forecast area, almost a 10 degree trend warmer compared to Sunday.

This ridge will remain in place for most of next week with some stronger north west to northerly breezes during the afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens during the afternoon and evening. There is also some hints at a thermal trough building Wednesday night into Thursday. That should make Thursday or perhaps Friday our warmest days, and indeed the NBM is forecasting highs of 90 degrees Friday here in Medford, which is the warmest in the week.

The models become more progressive towards the tail end of the weekend and there are some hints of some wetter weather on Memorial Day. It looks like 30% of the ensemble members are pushing a cold front through the region with some wetting rain. So definitely hints of rain of a more progressive pattern for the the last week of May.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, May 16, 2026...Steep seas will spread to all areas this afternoon as increasing northwest swell builds into the waters and north winds strengthen. Swell will lower by Sunday, although steep seas will persist due to strong northerly wind waves, mainly south of Cape Blanco.

High and very steep seas will remain an issue into next week as the north winds strengthen and push wind waves higher. Winds and waves will peak in the afternoon and evenings with wave heights around 10 to 14 feet in the outer waters south of Gold Beach. We could be overdoing the wind wave forecast, although seas will at least be hazardous to smaller crafts through most of the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.