textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)

Key Points:

* Rain: Chances through this weekend - Rainfall greatest along/near the coast - Amounts generally decrease as you go east - Not expecting widespread hazards from rainfall - More rainfall next week but some uncertainty exists

* Snow: Sunday night into Monday for higher elevations - Precipitation generally decreasing at this time - Snow levels dropping to 4000 Sun night/Monday morning - Generally light amounts and no hazards expected at this time - Additional snowfall late next week

* Wind: Breezy to isolated gusty winds for eastside on Sunday - Isolated advisory conditions through Sunday afternoon

Further Details:

A broad area of cyclonic rotation is noted over the Gulf of Alaska. GOES satellite imagery depicting a nice fetch of midlevel moisture across the region. We are seeing returns on radar along and near the coast in addition to some inland areas. Expecting this to continue through today with mostly rainfall for westside locations. Rainfall will continue tomorrow as a front pushes onshore increasing lift which will be further enhanced by jet dynamics tomorrow. This will be mostly a beneficial rain event in the sense we have been relatively dry for this time of year when we are typically wet. Much of January and early February has been noted by mostly dry conditions in a relative sense to climatology. Snow pack will not see much help through this event as QPF will be dwindling down as snow levels finally start to drop behind the cooler airmass. That said, there will be a 6hr to perhaps 12hr period for snowfall before moisture ends. This will be mainly around sunset tomorrow and through Sunday night/Monday morning. During this time, a strong mid to upper level jet will push against the Cascades which could aid some topography influence. The probability for accumulating snowfall is greatest around Crater Lake and similar elevations. The probability for 6.0" in 24 hours is about 45% for Crater Lake. Cascades in general are the highlighted area for accumulations with this event; however, we are not expecting any location to see amounts that would warrant an advisory or warning.

Looking ahead into next week, the upper level pattern indicates a potential split flow and really chaotic pattern in general. There will be multiple disturbances across the region, and its a little too early to say with much confidence the finer details. The one welcoming trend will be the increased chances for more precipitation. There is also a chance for moderate to heavy snowfall late next week into next weekend. Again, too early to talk about some of the details, but next week will see multiple rounds of rainfall, followed by snowfall chances late in the week. There will also be a cooler airmass late next week which could help aid snowfall accumulation.

-Guerrero

AVIATION...07/18Z TAFs

The low clouds have cleared out and now we're watching some light showers along the coast with some of these showers making it farther inland with Roseburg(KRBG) reporting 0.01 inches earlier. Generally, the chance of showers will increase, although VFR conditions will likely prevail as periods of IFR conditions occur under the heavier showers.

Wind shear also remains a concern near KOTH this afternoon as winds around 2000 feet are around 40 knots with some weaker surface winds. We included LLWS in the North Bend(KOTH) TAF through most of the day.

We'll see more IFR conditions once the front and low move onshore, which will happen later this evening into the overnight hours.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Saturday, February 7, 2026

Gusty southerly winds will persist ahead of a cold front on Saturday evening into Saturday night. That front will sit over the waters briefly resulting in some southerly winds south of Port Orford and lighter easterly to northerly winds in the northern waters. Seas will remain hazardous to smaller crafts through Monday with wave heights around 10 to 11 feet at 10 to 12 seconds. Conditions improve mid week as high pressure briefly builds around Wednesday and Thursday.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM PST Sunday for ORZ030-031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350- 370.