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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion Updated.

AVIATION...19/00Z TAFS

Showers and snow showers will be isolated to scattered through early this evening. Showers will bring local MVFR conditions and areas of mountain obscuration.

The next front will bring light to moderate rain to the coast early this evening, continuing and spreading inland (as snow for most areas) overnight into Thursday morning. Freezing levels around 2000 feet this afternoon will fall to 1000 to 1500 feet overnight. This will create deteriorating conditions this evening into Thursday morning with a predominant mix of IFR/MVFR and widespread mountain obscuration. Snow showers will taper off west of the Cascades during Thursday afternoon, but continue into the evening on the east side.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 337 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...A cold front is near the coast and will swing across the area tonight through Thursday. First, rain and mixed precipitation at the coast will pick up in coverage and intensity this evening. The Winter Weather Message, with most of the area covered by a Winter Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory /PDXWSWMFR/, has been updated to highlight the focus for low elevation snowfall from the Coast Range eastward late tonight into Thursday morning. This update also includes an extension of the Winter Weather Advisory for eastern Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties into Thursday evening. An accumulation of up to 3 inches is expected for most valleys, except around 3 to 8 inches in south central and southeast Siskiyou County. Meantime, most of the higher terrain is expected to receive 4 to 12 inches. Snow levels around 2000 feet will fall to 800 to 1500 feet on Thursday morning, then nudge back up to 2000 feet with lingering light showers and flurries late Thursday morning into Thursday evening. The clouds and precipitation should keep temperatures just above freezing at the coast on Thursday.

Valley low clouds will linger Thursday night into Friday morning, which will hinder the extent of cooling, but it will still be very cold on Friday morning. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the coast with readings near 30 expected. Meantime, west side lows on Friday will be mainly in the 20s, with readings in the teens common on the east side. Otherwise, high pressure will bring a break in the weather Friday into Saturday. With a rapidly deepening low expected to remain offshore, it will remain mostly dry but southerly winds will increase on Saturday...becoming strong and gusty at the coast, in the Shasta Valley, southern Rogue Valley near Ashland, over the higher terrain, and east of the Cascades.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...The next frontal system is expected to bring heavy rain to the coast beginning Saturday night or Sunday with mainly light to moderate rain mainly west of the Cascades and snow levels rising to 4000 to 5000 feet. This system is likely to linger over the west coast with substantial rainfall and high elevation snow through Monday night or Tuesday. Unsettled weather with a chance of light showers is likely at mid-week.

MARINE...Updated 240 PM PST Wednesday, February 18, 2026...A front will move through the waters tonight with gusty advisory level west- southwest winds that will shift to northwest on Thursday. Steep to locally very steep seas can be expected Thursday as combined seas reach 10-16 ft. Even after winds ease briefly Thursday night, steep seas will persist through the early morning hours (4am PST) of Friday. Then, a strong storm will move southward over the eastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska, with strong southerly gales and a potential for storm force gusts (especially over the outer waters - beyond 10 NM from shore) Saturday into Sunday. We have issued a gale watch for the outer waters where confidence is highest. This is likely to result in high to very high and very steep seas across the waters late Saturday through Sunday into Monday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023-024- 026.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>031.

Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-082- 083.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ081-084- 085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for PZZ370-376.


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