textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...29/00Z TAFs

Westerly winds gusting at 20-30 kt will persist through around 03Z this evening. VFR mid and high level clouds will increase after 06Z this evening into Sunday afternoon. This is expected to limit coastal stratus late tonight into Sunday morning to a few patches. A cold front will reach the coast Sunday afternoon with MVFR and a slight chance of light rain.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Saturday, March 28, 2026

Winds are easing, but fresh swell will remain steep south of Cape Blanco this evening. Further improvement is expected on Sunday morning. But, steep building seas and stronger north winds return Sunday afternoon into Monday night. This includes a possibility of gale force gusts in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco.

Brief improvement is likely on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front. Active weather Tuesday evening into Wednesday is forecast to bring rain with building south to southwest winds likely reaching gale force, and seas possibly becoming very steep. The outlook is for steep to very steep seas to build to a peak on Thursday, but also persist late next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 158 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026/

DISCUSSION...Weak onshore flow has developed today as the thermal trough weakens and slides farther east. Although humidities have risen, conditions still remain dry with some mid to high level clouds streaming overhead.

Otherwise, it'll be another warm day, although temperatures will trend lower compared to yesterday with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 70's in some of our warmer spots.

A cold front and upper level trough will pass through southern Oregon and northern California Sunday night. This will result in a 20 to 40% chance of precipitation in some of our higher terrain, coastal locations, and portions of the Umpqua Basin Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Precipitation accumulation will be low with a few hundreths falling at most in the higher Cascades and perhaps a trace in some of our valleys.

Ensembles and the deterministic models are showing convection firing in northern California near Alturas, and perhaps as far north as Lakeview in Oregon, during Tuesday afternoon. It looks like this is firing on the stalled cold/stationary front with some upper level energy rotating in the afternoon. Models vary significantly on the amount of QPF Tuesday afternoon, although they all show some QPF. There is also a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms during Tuesday afternoon based on NBM data and the GFS has a small area of 100-200 J/kg of convective available potential energy in Modoc County.

Wednesday into Thursday still remains the day of concern as models are showing a low strengthening in the Pacific. The GEFS has been showing much more variation between stronger and weaker solutions in the last several runs, but in the most recent run has come more into line with the ENS, which has been more consistently show a cold front hitting the Oregon coast sometime during the day on Wednesday. NBM wind gust probabilities suggest a 50% chance of wind gusts exceeding 41 knots on Wednesday. Those probabilities are about 60 to 70 percent east of the Cascades. The Shasta Valley will also have to be monitored in future forecast issuances, but the main low to mid level flow is not quite aligned with the valley in a way that we would normally associate with strong winds there.

The NBM is more excited about the QPF and the snow accumulation in the mountains. In addition, snow levels will remain low through Thursday and it will be kind of like winter again!!! Currently, the NBM has snow levels 5000 feet Wednesday evening with 3000 feet during the day on Thursday after a cold front moves through and perhaps as low as 2500 feet Thursday night. With high temperatures forecast to be in the mid 50's at Medford @1300 feet and your wetbulb and freezing temp near 32 around 3300 feet, those will be some pretty strong temperature lapse rates in the boundary layer. We should see some pretty strong showers behind the front or perhaps a few rumbles of thunder.

As for snow accumulations during this event, the NBM has a 90% chance for 12 inches and a 28% chance of 24 inches at Crater Lake over 48 hours ending 4am Friday. So those 12 inch probabilities moved upwards compared to 24 hours ago. Also, the extreme forecast index(EFI) is not that excited about the snow event with values of 0.6 in the Cascades Thursday. This suggests the event should be strong for this time of year, although saying its extreme would be a reach.

With plenty of uncertainty remaining in the details, we will be keeping a close eye on this system as it gets closer in time. Those who may be impacted by stronger winds, particularly along the coast, in the Shasta and Scott valleys, the southern Rogue Valley, and across the East Side, and those who may be travelling over higher terrain, such as the Cascade passes and the East Side, should also keep a close eye on the forecast, and begin to make alternate plans or prepare for this uncommonly strong, at least in terms of what we have seen so far this season, event.

On the back side of this event, showers and cooler weather are expected to finish out the week as the broad upper level trough passes overhead. There are increasing indications that ridging will begin to rebuild along the West Coast, with a warming and drying trend heading into next weekend. -Smith/BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370.