textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...23/18Z TAFs

The marine layer will remain well entrenched along the coast and at coastal sites today, maintaining IFR/LIFR conditions. There could be a brief period of improvement to VFR this afternoon, most likely between 22z-02z, but expect the quick return of LIFR/IFR conditions this evening, then persisting overnight.

Inland areas will remain VFR through the TAF period with the typical increase in afternoon breezes. Cumulus buildups are also expected this afternoon over the higher terrain, with isolated thunderstorms possible south of the OR/CA border near the Mt Shasta/Medicine Lakes region. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 424 AM PDT Tue Jun 23 2026/

DISCUSSION...Daytime highs are expected to remain 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms across northern California and southern Oregon today. This supports a Heat Advisory for the Rogue, Illinois, Shasta, Scott, and Klamath River valleys as well as valleys in eastern Curry County into this afternoon. A bit of passing instability may also help isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms develop in Siskiyou County as well as northern Lake and Klamath counties. Conditions are not ideal, with CAPE values of 200-400 J/Kg and sparse midlevel moisture. SPC CAMs have higher confidence in the chances for Siskiyou County activity than anything developing east of the Cascades.

The upper pattern starts to change on Wednesday. With the upper ridge departing to the east, a period of zonal flow will start a gradual cooling trend across the area. Another pocket of instability may bring some isolated thunderstorms develop on Wednesday afternoon and evening, this time with slightly better chances east of the Cascades. But like the Tuesday chances, the supporting conditions do not suggest abundant activity.

A period of unimpactful active weather looks to start late Thursday, when a cold front looking to reach the Oregon coast. This front looks to bring light rainfall to the coast and the Cascades, with chances for drizzles over Douglas, Klamath, and Lake counties. Downsloping will likely keep the Rogue and Illinois valleys dry. This front may also bring gusty afternoon and evening winds east of the Cascades and over terrain in Siskiyou County.

Long-term deterministic imagery is starting to inch towards agreeing on a low pressure system moving down from the northwest. ECMWF and GFS imagery both have the system swinging over Oregon, although the ECMWF expects the system to drop farther south and bring slightly more rainfall. In the end, rainfall will be measured in the hundreths or tenths of an inch for most places. Beyond the weekend, an upper trough looks to remain in place which will help to keep temperatures from warming too quickly, but signs of precipitation beyond the weekend are minimal. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Monday, June 22, 2026...North winds will maintain strength through this evening. Isolated gale force gusts and very steep seas are possible south of Cape Blanco while steep seas persist across the northern outer waters. Northerly winds will continue Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions for most of the waters through at least mid- week. Conditions briefly improve on Thursday. Then a cold front is likely to bring light rain and a modest increase in fresh west- northwest swell Thursday night into Saturday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ024-026.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-370-376.