textproduct: Medford

LONG TERM

Beyond today's shortwave, the Pacific ridge looks to strengthen and establish a stable pattern through most if not all of the week ahead. This will bring a warning trend starting on Sunday. Forecast daytime highs remain 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages across the area by the middle of next week. Broadly speaking, coastal areas will see daytime highs in the mid to high 60s while west side valleys will be in the mid to high 70s. Low elevation areas in Lake and Klamath counties may stay in the low to mid 70s, while parts of Siskiyou and Modoc counties may see a few extra degrees of warming. Per NBM probabilistic guidance, Alturas has a 50-65% to see daytime highs above 80 degrees from Tuesday into Saturday while Medford and Montague have a 15-20% chance and only towards the end of the week. These warm conditions do bring Minor HeatRisk levels to the area through most of next week. Minor levels do not support an Advisory product, but individuals who are extremely sensitive to warm conditions may be at risk of heat-related illnesses next week.

Cooler temperatures are possible for next weekend, although there is some uncertainty in the timing and amount of cooling. To illustrate this, let's consider the interquartile range for Roseburg;s daytime highs. An example of a "usual" short-term interquartile range (the range between the 25th percentile and 75th percentile outcomes) for a high temperature might be 3 to 6 degrees. At Roseburg for this Saturday, that range is 3 degrees; we'd expect a high between 46 and 49 degrees. For Saturday the 21st, that range is 23 degrees; we'd expect a temperature between 56 and 79 degrees. This happens when long-term models see a wide range of outcomes. Of course, this range should decrease as the pattern for next weekend comes into focus. -TAD

AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs

A front is pushing through the forecast area and is bringing rain and some lower IFR and LIFR ceilings, mainly near the coast. MVFR ceilings are more likely over other locations west of the Cascades during through early this morning with VFR conditions east of the Cascades. By this afternoon, conditions should dry out and fair weather cumulus will spread out across the region. -Smith

MARINE...Updated 215 AM PDT Saturday, March 14, 2026

Breezy southerly winds have come tonight. A stalled front to the north is moving through from north to south tonight with a wind shift to northerly for all areas before mid-morning. Conditions will become hazardous to small craft for all areas this morning through tonight.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-370.