textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Moderate impact marine/beach weather involving hazardous seas and hazardous surf conditions through this evening

* Inland, this is an overall low impact forecast through at least Thursday night

* Light, higher terrain focused showers taper off this evening with another round of light to moderate rainfall expected Monday/Monday night

* The southern end of a front brushes the coast north of Cape Blanco on Tuesday, otherwise dry weather with warmer afternoons (around a dozen degrees above normal) Tuesday through Thursday

* A period of active weather is likely to start Friday or Saturday and continue into early next week

DISCUSSION

Unusually high surf will persist at beaches this evening, though the very slightly higher peak of 28 to 33 foot breaker heights occurred around noon. The remnants of a front will dissipate overnight. Lingering low level moisture will produce a few isolated very light showers over the higher terrain this evening, and also areas of valley low clouds and fog late this evening into the morning.

The warm frontal portion of an occluding front will move inland on Monday with west side focused light to locally moderate rain, and snow levels around 8000 feet. The higher rain rates are expected at the coast during the late morning and early afternoon, with precipitation tapering off Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

High pressure, centered in the Great Basin, will build in Tuesday into Thursday with a strong warming and drying trend. Lows will be seasonably cold. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, with highs in the 60s and 70s. But, each of the 3 days will have highs around a dozen degrees above normal.

The 12Z suite of models is still having difficulty in timing the shift from a ridge dominated pattern with the approach of a broad upper low moving southeast from the Gulf of Alaska. The ECMWF is on the faster side of the cluster of solutions with moderate to heavy rain moving into the west side during Friday. Meantime, the GFS happens to be on the slow side with moderate to heavy rain holding off at the coast until Saturday and not making much inland progress until Saturday evening. Heavy rain associated with frontal passage may be limited to the coast, though around 10-15% of members extend it into inland portions of the west side. Very few of the ensemble members are faster than the ECMWF or slower than the GFS. For now, the NBM is handling the uncertainty appropriately with rain chances to the west of Lake and Modoc Counties during Friday and probabilities increasing thereafter through Saturday and Sunday. Snow levels are forecast to be around 7000 feet before falling to around 5000 to 5500 feet Sunday.

AVIATION...08/06Z TAFs

Areas of MVFR in stratus have developed over central portions of the area, including Medford (KMFR) tonight with areas of LIFR/IFR in fog along the coast and at Klamath Falls (LMT). As winds increase tonight along the coast, expect fog to clear. Then, MVFR conditions will develop as a front moves in Monday morning bringing rain. A low level jet of 40-45kt may bring some areas of low level wind shear along the coast between 17-23z.

Inland, areas of MVFR and local LIFR/IFR may develop overnight at area TAF sites and persist into early Monday morning. Confidence is highest for low clouds and fog affecting Medford (MFR) and patchy fog affecting Klamath Falls (LMT). There is also a 25% chance for IFR at Roseburg (RBG). Then, as the front spreads rain and mid clouds inland late Monday morning and Monday afternoon, expect low clouds to lift. Models and guidance support MVFR conditions developing for most areas from the Cascades west with mainly VFR east of the Cascades. Widespread mountain obscurations are expected from the Cascades west.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Sunday, November 8, 2026

High to very high long period westerly swell peaks this afternoon at 20-25 feet at 16 seconds, but continues through this evening resulting in warning level seas for all waters. Another front arrives on Monday which will bring gale gusts to the northern waters with overall steep to very steep seas. High and steep seas and advisory strength south winds are likely through the end of the week.

BEACH HAZARDS

A High Surf Warning remains in effect this evening. A long period west swell produced peak breaker heights in the surf zone of 25-33 feet, and will remain nearly as high through this evening.

Large breaking waves will create hazardous conditions along and within the surf zone, and could inundate beaches and low lying shorelines. Beach erosion is possible, and exposed infrastructure may be damaged.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...High Surf Warning until 1 AM PST Monday for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.

Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-370.