textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Very warm temperatures and dry conditions today and Friday.

* A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend.

* Dry, mild weather expected Sunday.

* A stronger low and front approaches coast Sunday night and Monday, but rain chances are low for inland areas with higher chances along the coast and offshore.

DISCUSSION

Today and Friday, high pressure will remain in place with very warm temperatures and dry conditions. High temperatures are expected to be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal through Friday for inland areas. Breezy to gusty easterly to southeasterly winds will persist across area ridges. This will bring dry humidities to the ridges. Additionally, breezy southeast winds are expected in the afternoon today for areas east of the Cascades and in portions of the Rogue Valley, including the Ashland area. This pattern with breezy/gusty winds is expected again on Friday afternoon for areas east of the Cascades. This will bring elevated, but not critical, fire weather conditions to inland areas, especially on Friday for areas east of the Cascades.

Then, on Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will produce cloudy conditions across northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures are expected to be near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is a potential for breezy winds Saturday afternoon, especially along the coast and potentially across areas east of the Cascades.

Sunday expect dry and mild conditions with morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades.

A low pressure and front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs continue to show this low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts south. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances for the coast and inland are in the 20-40% range for Monday with coastal areas having the highest chances (30-40%) and low chances (10-20%) inland.

Tuesday into Wednesday, models are showing that low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low.

AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs

VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals except for localized IFR/LIFR in patchy fog along the coast through early this morning and again Thursday night. East to southeast winds increase over the mountains, especially the Cascades/Siskiyous, overnight and this morning. These winds, just a couple of thousand feet AGL, will be approximately 25 kt from the ESE. This will bring an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport after 10-12Z, lasting until about 17Z-19Z due to a strong inversion, which should prevent those winds from reaching the surface. It could get breezy in Ashland beginning this morning, however.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Thursday, October 15, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will continue for areas south of Cape Blanco through early Thursday morning. Conditions improve Thursday as winds weaken and seas diminish. A new swell will arrive around Saturday and push waves slightly higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

An unseasonably warm air mass moves in over SW Oregon and NorCal today and Friday. This will bring elevated fire weather risk, especially over the higher terrain. Gusty offshore winds (E-SE) this morning, peaking over the upper slopes and ridges, especially the Cascades, west side foothills and Siskiyou mtns with peak gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Expect worsening mid slope/ridge RH recoveries during the overnights (worst Thursday night from the Cascades west, and then Friday night from the Cascades east). Winds will subside across the ridges on Friday morning but may remain gusty Thursday night/early Friday. A very dry day is expected Friday with afternoon minimum RH in the teens in many areas inland of the coastal mountains, perhaps even some single digit readings in portions of NorCal and over the East Side. Breezy to locally gusty winds are also expected Friday afternoon for areas east of the Cascades (eastern Klamath, Lake and Modoc counties). These conditions do not meet Red Flag warning criteria, due to either moderate fire danger, or not long enough duration of combined critical wind/rh levels. Even so, conditions will be elevated to near critical today and Friday (especially in the Umpqua NF/southern Oregon Cascades and perhaps Modoc at times). As a result, we opted to headline the Fire Weather Planning Forecast.

On Saturday, a dry cold front will swing through and humidity will increase for all but the far SE sections of the area. Winds don't appear to be too strong with this front, so fire concerns lessen. Humidity recoveries will be much better area wide Saturday night.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ356-376.