textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...19/18Z TAFs

Aside from lingering stratus south of Gold Beach resulting in LIFR conditions along the immediate the coast, VFR conditions prevail across the region and will do so through the TAF period for most locations. Marine stratus is likely to linger through much of the TAF period for the immediate coast south of Gold Beach, though there could be a brief period VFR conditions later this afternoon. IFR/LIFR conditions in marine stratus will return to areas north of Cape Blanco this evening once gusty north winds ease around sunset, then persist well into Thursday morning. VFR conditions will prevail for all other areas. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 434 AM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal temperatures are expected the next couple of days before trending back near normal Friday onward

* Dry conditions and typical afternoon breezes continue, but Friday and Saturday will see an uptick with enhanced breezes

* Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon along the Cascades and possibly eastside areas through the evening hours

* Areas of smoke remain possible across western Siskiyou County and parts of Klamath and Lake counties due to nearby wildfires

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...

Overall, very typical summer-like pattern with limited impacts outside of fire weather. The general pattern will be noted by high pressure over the Desert Southwest and a closed low off the coast around 137W and 35N. This will maintain south to southwesterly flow aloft through much of this forecast. The big question will be how far east will the upper low move towards the PacNW on Thursday/Friday. This will likely play a large role on our fire weather conditions (wind/low RH) and thunderstorm chances. The signal is currently weak for thunderstorm chances, but we do have moisture and weak instability across the region, so the added dynamics aloft could help produce a thunderstorm or two Friday afternoon/early evening. It will be a battle between the closed low and the high pressure over the Desert Southwest. If the closed low is allowed to push eastward before its north/northeast trajectory, we might see more coverage on the eastside. Still some uncertainty, especially with CAPE values being on the lower end. The takeaway here is that we will see increased risk for fire weather conditions from either lightning potential or the combination of winds and low RH. In fact, we could see both of these scenarios come to fruition with main differences in timing of said threats. As the low pushes north and east, we will remain under south/southwesterly flow through early next week. This pattern will keep us overall dry with the main weather hazard revolving around fire weather potential which is typical for this time of year.

MARINE (Updated at 330 AM Aug 19th)...

Gusty north winds and steep seas are expected south of Cape Blanco through this evening. Conditions are expected to improve Thursday and Friday. A thermal trough will redevelop along the coast this weekend bringing a return of strong north winds and steep seas. Once again, strongest winds and highest seas are most likely south of Cape Blanco.

FIRE WEATHER (Updated at 330 AM Aug 19th)...

Starting Thursday, the combination of winds and low RH will result in at least elevated fire weather concerns through the weekend and into early next week. The main areas of interest will be eastside areas and parts of northern California. At least in the short/near term, we need to keep an eye on Friday and Saturday for conditions approaching critical thresholds. Friday we have an approaching upper level low that will bring enhanced breezes coupled with low RH for eastside areas and parts of northern California. In addition to the low RH and winds, we will have increased chances for thunderstorms on Friday as well, mainly along the Cascades and north. That said, some signs are pointing towards increased coverage for eastside areas. On Saturday, the thunderstorm threat likely shifts north and east of our area, but we may still have those enhanced breezes sticking around for another afternoon/early evening. This combined with another dry afternoon will bring at least elevated fire weather concerns. Coverage wise, Friday and Saturday will be the most noteworthy days regarding fire weather concerns that could tilt towards critical thresholds. Ultimately, the threat of elevated to perhaps critical fire weather conditions will continue into early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.