textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* High impact marine weather lasting through the weekend, including very large and dangerous surf conditions.

* Inland, low to moderate impacts from strong winds and rainfall; minimal impacts from snow occuring mainly above 5000 feet with another front tonight into Sunday. * A third front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday, with lower snow levels likely.

DISCUSSION

An upper trough axis will shift east of the Cascades quickly this morning. Moist onshore flow is still bringing some showers from the Cascades westward and there were even a few lightning flashes around Ophir/Nesika Beach between 2 and 3 am as a small cell moved onshore. Shower activity should wane through the morning hours and into the afternoon beneath transient and weak short wave ridging, but may not go away completely as the next strong front will be developing offshore.

The associated low is deepening out around 48N and 141W this morning and will be positioned near 50N and just inside 140W by this evening. This will send the strong front toward the coast. Models are showing a fairly strong low-mid level jet associated with this front and model probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 55 kt are high over the marine waters (>70%). As such, we have storm warnings out for that. The strongest winds when the front moves onshore later today and tonight will be at the coastal headlands. We could see maximum wind gusts of 70-75 mph at the Capes (Arago, Blanco and Sebastian). Pressure gradients aren't quite as high as we'd like to see for warning level events (peaking at -6 to -7 mb OTH-ACV this evening), but there was enough evidence for some of the more exposed coastal beaches and Highway 101 seeing wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, so we issued a High Wind Warning from 1pm this afternoon to 1am PST tonight. Farther inland, while we are expecting gusty southerly winds again in portions of the Shasta/Rogue Valleys, there is a more SW component aloft and the mid-level jet isn't quite as strong as Thursday night/Friday's front. MFR-RDD gradient also peaks at around -7 mb, about 2 mb less than previous front. This should keep the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface. Even so, we have wind advisories with gusts in the Rogue Valley up to 40 mph and up to 55 mph in the Shasta Valley. East Side areas will be breezy to windy at times as well tonight into early Sunday morning, but peak gusts should be around 40, maybe 45 mph. We might consider a last minute advisory for those areas. In terms of rainfall, QPF will be marginally lower than the last event, but still expecting around 1-2 inches along the coast, coast range mountains and into western/southern Siskiyou County, including the Mt. Shasta region/Dunsmuir/McCloud. Interior western valleys will see some downsloping in advance of the front, so amounts for Roseburg, Medford and Yreka will be muted, generally around 0.25". Cascades and Siskiyous should get around 0.50-0.75", while east side locations see 0.10-0.25", but perhaps not even 0.10" over the deserts east of Winter Rim.

Snow levels remain higher than 5000 feet for this event, so we're not too concerned about winter impacts, though there could be a few inches up around Crater Lake National Park and around the Ski Bowl at Mt. Shasta/higher area peaks. Perhaps some wet snow will occur overnight into Sunday morning around Diamond Lake, Willamette Pass or even Lake of the Woods.

Post-frontal showers continue Sunday night into Monday with moist onshore flow. Showers should diminish Monday night as the upper trough axis moves inland and then east of the Cascades by Tuesday morning.

Models then show yet another strong Pacific storm bottoming out sub 970mb around 45N and 135W late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring another front toward the coast with main impacts from winds and precip at the coast and into NorCal. We'll see how this one evolves as it gets closer, but could be some winter impacts, especially in the Mt Shasta region. Stay tuned. -Spilde

AVIATION...14/06Z TAFs

Showers focused west of the Cascades will gradually taper off through Saturday morning. This will result in a mix of conditions, including predominant VFR but areas of MVFR and terrain obscuration, and also patchy coastal IFR.

Conditions briefly improve late Saturday morning through the afternoon. But, an increase of southerly winds at coast during the afternoon will be the first sign of another cold front approaching. This front will bring deteriorating conditions Saturday evening into Sunday with areas of low level wind shear, west side focused precipitation and lowering ceilings.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Saturday, November 14, 2026

Very large long period west swell peaked overnight at 30 to 36 feet at 17 to 19 seconds. Peak observations at the buoys -- Buoy 46015 was 36' @19 seconds, 46229 was 33' @ 18 seconds and buoy 46027 was 33' @17 seconds. While swells will gradually lower in height today, these very high and very steep, dangerous conditions will continue.

A second strong front is expected this afternoon and tonight. Models indicate southerly wind gusts up to storm force (50-60 kt) with this front. Long period west swell combined with building wind seas will bring very steep and very hazardous seas of 19 to 24 feet at 10-14 seconds.

Winds lower late tonight into early Sunday morning. Then, another long period swell arrives late Sunday morning through Monday afternoon with seas at 20 to 25 feet at 16 seconds.

Seas briefly diminish, then yet another strong front is likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Gales are likely with storm force winds possible again.

Mariners are urged to remain in port during this period of extremely dangerous weather, secure vessels and continue to monitor forecasts for updates. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PST Saturday, November 14, 2026

Dangerous conditions are expected along area beaches today through Monday evening. Very large, long period westerly swell will cause dangerous breaking waves in the surf zone of 30 to 35 feet this morning gradually lowering to 20 to 25 feet by this evening, then to 15 to 20 feet overnight into Sunday morning. Another round of dangerous surf conditions is expected Sunday night, with breaking waves reaching 25 to 30 ft and persisting into Monday morning. Waves and surf remain hazardous Monday, but gradually diminish through Monday evening. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory from noon today to 1 PM PST Sunday for ORZ026.

High Surf Warning until 10 PM PST Monday for ORZ021-022.

High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 1 PM PST Sunday for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.