textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonal warmth continues for most areas.

* A Red Flag Warning is in place to highlight gusty winds and dry conditions in Klamath, Lake, Modoc, and eastern Siskiyou counties.

* Unimpactful weather is expected through the week ahead. Temperatures peak on Monday before returning to seasonal levels near midweek.

DISCUSSION

An upper trough is passing to the northeast today, which will help to keep temperatures at seasonal levels. Dry air aloft is keeping precipitation chances out of the forecast. Gusty westerly winds east of the Cascades are lining up with ongoing dry conditions to bring critical fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening. A Red Flag Warning is in place for Klamath, Lake, Modoc, and eastern Siskiyou counties to highlight these conditions. With onshore flow along the coast, marine stratus is is expected to rebuild this evening with occasional drizzle possible. With the trough moving away to the northeast through Sunday, temperatures will rise west of the Cascades. A few clouds may pass over Modoc and southern Lake counties, but nothing is expected underneath them.

For the week ahead, generally dry southwest flow will bring continuing warm and dry conditions. A weak upper ridge ridge passes over the area on Monday, bringing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most areas. The Rogue and Klamath River valleys look to be the warmest areas, with highs approaching or reaching 100 degrees. A passing shortwave may bring very slight thunderstorm chances (5-10%) to southeastern Modoc and Lake counties. Temperatures cool slightly on Tuesday as the weak ridge moves eastward. For midweek, an approaching trough looks to pass to the north, which will help to bring temperatures to seasonal norms by Thursday. Elevated winds are possible in the afternoon and evening of Wednesday and Thursday, but current models have trended down from previous runs which reduces of critical fire weather conditions. These winds will be worth watching as the middle of the week approaches.

There's some minor divergence for Friday and beyond, generally limited to whether flow aloft will be zonal or southwesterly. Overall, long-term imagery and ensembles indicate unimpactful weather continues through the end of August. -TAD

AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs

Marine stratus remains over the Oregon coast and into the Umpqua Valley, but the Umpqua Valley is clearing quickly to start the TAF period. The coast will see stratus last into the afternoon, with a brief period of VFR levels until stratus rebuilds in the evening. MVFR ceilings could return to the Umpqua Valley early Sunday morning.

Other inland areas look to stay at VFR levels through the TAF period. Winds become gusty in the afternoon, especially east of the Cascades, then ease into the evening. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026

South winds are expected today as a weak front passes through the coastal waters, then winds will shift to the north and increase Sunday morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the offshore waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of winds and fog possible along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through much of next week with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026

An upper level trough and associated dry cold front will pass through the region today, bringing a period of increased winds and critical fire weather conditions. Model guidance shows 700 mb winds, a good proxy for maximum gusts east of the Cascades, will peak at about 40 mph ahead of the front early this afternoon, then diminish through the evening. To the west of the Cascades, particularly in the Rogue and Shasta valleys, gusty northwest winds will peak this afternoon behind the front, gusting to around 20 mph. The deciding factor for potential critical fire weather today will hinge on humidity. Minimum RH west of the Cascades will be too high, so even though winds will be gusty and may approach critical values, conditions should remain below levels of concern. East of the Cascades, however, daytime minimum humidity will trend lower today than yesterday, dropping into the teens or even single digit percentages. Thus, another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected there. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Cascades this afternoon, for FWZs 284/285/624/625.

More typical summer conditions return Sunday and persist into early next week. There are some signals for thunderstorm chances across far eastern 285/625, namely the Warner and Hart mountains, on Monday, but much will depend on how far west the Four Corners High retrogrades behind this trough passage. Otherwise, another trough drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers off the BC coast through early next week. There will likely be additional shortwaves/troughs to swing through the region early next week, bringing periods of enhanced winds.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376.