textproduct: Medford

UPDATE...Updates Aviation Discussion

AVIATION...22/00Z TAFs

VFR prevails across the area this evening. Onshore flow is likely to produce MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in marine fog and low stratus along the coast and into the coastal valleys, including at North Bend, tonight and into the morning. Conditions should clear to VFR through the morning, with VFR expected through the remainder of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 221 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026/

SYNOPSIS...Warm daytime temperatures will create some elevated heat risk for valley locations Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures trend cooler mid week before a cold front pushes through around Thursday night and Friday morning. Light rain will likely fall across most of Oregon Friday.

DISCUSSION...

Some cumulus fields are building over portions of northern California and south central Oregon this afternoon. A 500 mb ridge over the eastern Pacific continues to build while troughing continues over portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies today. As a result, temperatures should remain right around seasonal normals for mid June. Fog and low stratus will spread back into the coast and coastal valleys later tonight as the marine layer remains compressed with some light onshore flow.

Zonal flow aloft with a weak thermal trough west of the Cascades will develop by Monday afternoon. The thermal trough will increase temperatures 7 to 8 degrees warmer for highs with many locations hitting the upper 90's for highs in south western Oregon. Temperatures have trended cooler compared to previous model runs a few days ago and the risk for heat illness around Douglas County is pretty small from Monday into Tuesday. Therefore, we cancelled the heat advisory for that area. However, small areas of elevated/moderate heat risk persist here in Jackson/Josephine and portions of northern California. Therefore, we continued the heat advisory for those locations.

Medford's normal high for this time of year is 83 and we're forecasting 97 on Monday and 96 on Tuesday, so a solid 10 to 15 degrees above normal early next week.

A short wave will push into the region by Tuesday afternoon, although temperatures only move a few degrees lower. In any case, it should be breezy Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday as a stronger pressure gradient sets up. It should be gusty over higher terrain Wednesday afternoon around Crater Lake and the Siskiyou Mountains. Stronger onshore flow sets up Wednesday night into Thursday as yet another short wave pushes into the Pacific Northwest.

The big change will come by Friday morning as models are forecasting a plume of warm moist air to move in ahead of the cold front. This will likely bring rain to the area with a 50% chance of precipitation over locations west of the Cascades. Those probabilities decrease significantly farther to the south in California and east of the Cascades on Friday. With a cold front this strong, one also thinks about the potential for thunderstorms. However, the ECWMF ensemble members are not showing any CAPE with this frontal passage in the morning. Some members are bringing the instability in the afternoon east of the Cascades, so we'll have to watch out for that in future model runs. In any case, the rain and cooler temperatures will be welcomed with respect to fire weather threats and fuel conditions over the next few weeks.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024- 026.

CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-370-376.