textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable temperatures are expected this afternoon/evening with breezy to gusty winds.

* Two disturbances, one tonight into Saturday morning and another Saturday night into Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and enhanced WNW afternoon winds along with marine pushes along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin through the weekend.

* Light rain is possible along the coast and north of the Rogue- Umpqua Divide on Saturday. Snow levels down to around 4000 feet in the Cascades.

* Localized frost is possible Saturday night, but more likely Sunday night in some west side valleys. Highest chances are in the Illinois and Applegate valleys Sunday night, and portions of the lower Klamath River Valley in western-central Siskiyou County. Near and below freezing temperatures are likely in the Scott/Shasta valleys and east of the Cascades.

DISCUSSION

Last night's marine push brought only a few hundredths of rain to the coast/coast range mountains in Coos/western Douglas counties with just some clouds across the Umpqua Basin down to around the Rogue Valley this morning. Except for a few cumulus hanging near the terrain, the lower clouds have mostly dissipated here this afternoon, though they've been more persistent N&W of Roseburg. Some high cirrus are moving in now ahead of another fast-moving disturbance arriving in WNW flow aloft. The main vort max with this disturbance will swing across Washington into Idaho/NW Montana on Saturday. Another cold front with a fairly deep marine push is expected with some light rain along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin into Saturday morning. The snow level Saturday morning is forecast to be around 4000 feet, so some wet snow could fall in the Cascades, especially near and north of Union Creek Saturday morning. Again though, precip amounts will be light, and generally just a couple of hundredths (maybe a tenth in some lucky spots). Some models show a slight chance of precip south of the Umpqua Divide Saturday morning (so we can't completely rule out a few sprinkles around the valley), but, NBM probs are 10-25%. Probably no more than a trace of rain here in Medford. Saturday will be cooler with more clouds than on Friday and highs only 60-65F for the west side valleys. High temps in the 50s to low 60s can be expected over the East Side. Expect another breezy afternoon for most locations.

Saturday night into Sunday, the main upper trough will dig across southern Idaho/NE Nevada and into northern Utah with back side energy swinging southward through SW Oregon and into NorCal. This could lead to some light precip again, especially near the mountains, but it'll remain dry elsewhere with a colder continental air mass moving in on north-northeast flow. Snow levels Saturday night will be down to valley floors east of the Cascades, any precip should be snow. Even so, travel impacts are unlikely with amounts generally an inch or less. The colder air mass will remain in place Sunday into Monday, so we could be looking a temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s for some of the typically colder west side valleys. Right now, this looks like a set up for patchy frost in portions of the Illinois and Applegate valleys, but also some of the colder spots in the Rogue Valley (outlying areas of Medford). Lows both mornings (Sun/Mon) look to be in the 33-37F range. It looks like too much cloud cover and/or wind for Sunday morning and duration of temps that low won't be long enough. Better chance is Monday morning as the upper trough moves east, heights rise and the air mass dries out.

Since upper level heights rise next week, we expect a mostly dry pattern along with a warming trend. Temperatures rise to around normal Monday, then back to above normal levels Tue-Thu. We'll remain in WNW flow aloft during this time period with weak disturbances pushing by to the north every now and then. This means that while it will turn warmer, no huge heat waves are expected. Also, marine layer intrusions are likely to continue at the coast during the nights/mornings; any of the deeper ones could produce a little drizzle near the coast.

NBM has a dry forecast through at least next Friday and perhaps even into next weekend, which would heighten fire weather concerns due to rapidly drying fuels. Lightning risk during this period though is low since moisture will be limited. Models are hinting at the potential for a long wave trough to enter the picture toward the last week of May with a potential cool down back to normal and this is in line with the 8-14 day CPC forecast at the moment. -Spilde

AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs

VFR prevails most areas late this morning. Satellite imagery is showing some broken ceilings at or around 5000 feet over Coos and Douglas counties. Expect gusty winds (20-30 kt) this afternoon with increasing high clouds.

Another disturbance with a deep marine push will move in tonight. This will cause areas of light rain/drizzle along the coast and over to the Cascades along with a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings. Some higher terrain will become obscured. Most precip will fizzle south of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, but there could be a little light rain or drizzle up against the terrain of the Siskiyous due to the increased depth of the marine layer. With snow levels dropping to around 4000 feet by Saturday morning, some light snow may mix in as well down to that elevation. Onshore flow will keep a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings near and west/north of the Cascades/Siskiyous into Saturday afternoon with mainly VFR south of there. With low pressure sliding southward over the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, some cloud cover and light precip will linger, primarily around the mountains. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, May 15, 2026

Gusty north to northwest winds and steep seas are expected for areas from Gold Beach southward through this evening. Steep seas expand northward to all areas by Saturday as an increasing swell builds into the waters. North winds will also strengthen late Saturday. Strongest winds and highest seas are expected from Gold Beach southward.

Multiple northwest swell trains will move through area waters into early next week with persistent gusty north winds. At a minimum, this will maintain steep seas for much of the area through mid next week. However, the sustained northerly fetch Sunday through Thursday could build very steep seas south of Cape Blanco. North winds also could approach gale force at times, especially during the late afternoon/evening hours. We've added a hazardous seas watch south of Cape Blanco since it looks like at least a 4-5 day period of persistent northerly winds/very steep steep seas (starting Sunday afternoon). We've run it into Monday evening for now, but probably will need to extend it as confidence increases in the duration of the event. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for PZZ356-376.