textproduct: Medford

KEY POINTS

* Low impact weather expected through the 4th of July holiday.

* Last day of mild temperatures expected today. Temperatures trend warmer Friday into the weekend, peaking around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

* No precipitation in the forecast. Afternoon cumulus buildups expected across northern California and East Side today...stray shower possible.

* Sunday/Monday - Slight chance thunderstorms across northern California and East Side, most likely across northern Klamath/Lake Counties

* Wednesday - dry front raises potential fire weather concerns for gusty winds/low RH east of Cascades.

DISCUSSION

Broad troughing will linger over the region today, resulting in another mild day with enhanced afternoon breezes. Summer conditions return on Friday as heights build slightly and temperatures trend warmer to just a few degrees above normal. Meanwhile, high pressure currently over the eastern CONUS will weaken and expand westward across the southern U.S. This high pressure tries build over the Desert Southwest through the weekend, but energy and moisture from the southeast Pacific will move into southern California late in the weekend and keep this ridge weaker than models previously indicated. Meanwhile, weak low pressure waves will continue to move into British Columbia, leaving the area under southwest flow Sunday into early next week.

No precipitation is in the forecast through much of the weekend. There is enough upper level moisture and weak instability for some cumulus buildups across northern California and east of the Cascades today, and while a stray shower (5% chance) isn't out of the question, dry conditions are expected.

The pattern transitions on Friday as heights build over the region. We don't expect impactful weather through the 4th of July holiday. Temperatures will trend warmer on Friday, actually reaching values typical for this time of year -- low-upper 80s. As high pressure expands westward, we'll see an uptick trend in high temperatures. Temperatures will peak around 5 to 10 degrees above normal (upper 80s East/mid 90s West), so we don't expect any heat related impacts into early next week and we should get through most of the Holiday weekend with fairly benign/typical weather.

With southwest flow over the region and high pressure in the dessert southwest, we've been scrutinizing the pattern for any days where thunderstorms or the combination of gusty winds/low RH could be a concern. Details are becoming clearer, and it now looks like we could see some isolated thunderstorms in the region on Sunday and Monday. We'll be on the periphery of that previously mentioned moisture and energy that moves into the mid-lattitudes Sunday and Monday, and models show enough moisture/instability in the region for a slight chance of thunderstorms across northern California and east of the Cascades. The better agreement is for area across northern Klamath and Lake Counties, primarily from Chemult eastward, but these southwest flow patterns tend to increase the risk across northern California as well. Instability is currently lacking for Tuesday, so this day looks less concerning for thunderstorm potential.

On Wednesday, models are in good agreement for a weakening front to approach the area from the northwest. A deep marine push is possible Tuesday night as this front moves inland and it's possible there could be a few sprinkles for locations along the coast Wednesday morning. The front really falls apart, however, as it moves inland, so this front will likely go unnoticed for most folks. Temperature will trend cooler by a few degrees on Wednesday, but no where near as mild as we've seen over the last week or so. The bigger impact from this front will be enhanced afternoon winds that potentially combine with lower humidities and result in fire weather concerns east of the Cascades. Stay tuned for updates. /BR-y

AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs

Marine stratus is expected to bring IFR levels to the Oregon coast tonight. This ceiling may lift to MVFR during the day on Friday before clearing out as gusty winds develop on Friday afternoon.

Inland areas look to remain at VFR levels under clear skies or high clouds through the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Thursday, July 2, 2026

Gusty north winds will persist through the weekend and into early next week, maintaining steep to very steep seas. Conditions will be somewhat improved today through Friday as winds are lower compared to recent days. However, advisory level winds will persist south of Cape Blanco and maintain steep seas south of Port Orford into early Saturday. Conditions likely worsen again Saturday afternoon as north winds increase and steep seas return to areas north of Cape Blanco with very steep seas possible south of Cape Blanco. These conditions are likely to persist through Sunday, then improve early next week as north winds weaken. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.