textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...07/00Z TAFs

Patchy IFR/LIFR over the coastal waters, coast and coastal valleys is expected to thicken again after 02Z early this evening, and persist into Friday morning. Coastal stratus will dissipate to VFR again during Friday, through the afternoon.

Skies will remain clear inland, but with areas of MVFR visibility reduction due to smoke. Smoke concentration will remain highest in southern Oregon, especially south central Oregon (including Klamath Falls and Lakeview). Some improvement in visibility is expected into early this evening with breezy winds. But, smoke will settle into valleys again and locally into northern California overnight into Friday morning. Another round of improvement is expected Friday afternoon.

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Thursday, August 6, 2026

Below advisory conditions continue into early Friday with north wind wave dominated seas. North winds will strengthen Friday through the weekend into early next week. Steep seas are expected south of Cape Blanco Friday morning through Saturday morning, then a gale watch south of Port Orford later Saturday with steep seas elsewhere.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 236 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot, dry weather continues this afternoon through Friday.

* Temperatures trend cooler by Saturday with more zonal flow.

* Smoke from fires around the region will produce unhealthy air quality over some areas.

* No chances for thunderstorms until the middle of the month.

DISCUSSION...

Smoke and heat are the main weather hazards over the forecast area this afternoon and again on Friday. It looks like temperatures will still push into the 100's in our westside valleys Friday afternoon, yet short of any records. In addition, models are anticipating a gradual cool off as the thermal trough has moved eastward and the 500 mb ridge slightly weakens this weekend. We'll also see some stronger westerly flow aloft, which will push smoke higher in the atmosphere eastwards.

During the morning hours, we'll get our usual south west winds over the forecast area before breezy north to northwest wind sets up during the afternoon and evening hours. This will result in smoke from the Wright Springs fire hovering around Klamath Falls for the next few days. The winds from the Wood Rat fire popping up near Ruch will push smoke into the Rogue Valley and air quality will likely deteriorate over the next 24 hours.

500 mb heights become more zonal for most of the weekend before a short wave moves through the Pacific Northwest around the Saturday timeframe. We looked through the ensembles and we don't see any chance of showers or thunderstorms over our forecast area as this trough moves through. Another wave also appears to develop along the coast during the Tuesday timeframe with no anticipated impacts around our region.

The only other weather feature to mention is around next week when the models are anticipating another deeper wave to move into the Pacific Northwest around Thursday. One would expect a few thunderstorms to be in the forecast, although it is looking fairly dry around Oregon, perhaps because the trough trajectory is dropping in from the north west off the Gulf of Alaska. In any case, it's still looking fairly dry through most of next week.

There is some hope for precipitation in the forecast around Day 10. About 30% of ensemble members are predicting spotty convection over southern Oregon and northern California around August 15th. Some of this could also come in the form of thunderstorms. Something to monitor during future model runs.

-Smith

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 PM PDT Thursday, August 6, 2026...

Critical fire weather conditions continue west of the Cascades this afternoon as the thermal trough moves eastwards. RHs will still drop down into the mid and perhaps lower teens with the typical NW gusty valley winds west of the Cascades.

Overnight recoveries should improve with lighter westerly flow along the coast with moderate recoveries more likely in the coastal range. Poor recoveries seem more likely in western Siskiyou County as very dry air lingers there.

Otherwise, the more notable improvement will be Saturday into Sunday with high pressure weakening over the region and deeper westerly flow off the Pacific. This will push humidities notably higher by mid week next week with near normal temperatures for mid August.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for ORZ023-024-026-028>031.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ620-622.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ080-081-083>085.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350- 370.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.