textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

The marine layer is beginning to dissipate and should allow for a period of VFR conditions this afternoon for KOTH. However, expecting the marine layer to redevelop tonight and bring another round of IFR conditions overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for inland TAF sites, and typical diurnal winds expected today/tonight with some high clouds potentially infiltrating the region overnight.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 122 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Quiet weather is expected for the next several days, with seasonal warmth continuing for most areas. * Temperatures peak about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday before returning to seasonal levels near midweek.

* There will be a slight chance (15-20 percent) of thunderstorms over far eastern Lake and Modoc counties Monday afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An upper trough is passing overhead today, which will help to keep temperatures at seasonal levels. The trough will then pass to the northeast tonight into Monday, allowing the Four-Corners ridge to retrograde just a bit to the west. The northwestern periphery of this ridge will nudge in overhead Monday into Tuesday, while a thermal trough redevelops along the coast. This will warm temperatures by about 5 to 10 degrees, producing warmer than normal late August highs,and keeping the area dry. There is a slight chance that increased moisture entering the area within the southwest flow aloft could interact with a weak impulse, producing some weak instability, and an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two is possible over eastern Modoc and southeastern Lake counties, mainly along the Warner and Hart mountains, where lifting will be slightly stronger.

The warming of Monday and Tuesday will be shortlived, however, as another trough digs southward offshore of British Columbia, arriving off the coast of the Pacific Northwest by midweek. The trough will push the ridge to the east, bringing temperatures back to more seasonal levels for the remainder of the week.

Minor disturbances in the persistent southwest upper-level flow next week may result in breezy to gusty afternoon winds at times, especially if another dry front or two pass through the area. Latest guidance suggests this would most likely occur around Wednesday, and again over the weekend. Otherwise, quiet, seasonable weather is expected through the remainder of the month.

AVIATION...23/12Z TAFs...A mix of IFR and MVFR marine stratus over the Oregon coast and into the lower Umpqua Valley will persist through this morning, with areas of drizzle likely for areas along and west of the coastal mountains. MVFR ceilings have already pushed well into the Umpqua Basin early this morning.

Improvement to VFR will be slow, with many areas not clearing to VFR until early afternoon, and the immediate coast not expected to fully clear at all. IFR/LIFR is expected to develop at the immediate coast, Coquille Valley, and lower Umpqua Valley after 04Z this evening.

Otherwise, inland areas will remain VFR through the TAF period, with mostly clear skies. Winds will increase again this afternoon, but will be weaker than in recent days with gusts mainly at 10 to 15 kt.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Sunday, August 23, 2026...Southerly winds will shift to the north and increase this morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind- driven seas will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the outer waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of wind and fog along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through Friday with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376.