textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Just some marine stratus filling in a few valleys this morning and temperatures notably cooler compared to 24 hours ago as cooler air settles into the region. We'll see zonal flow continue for today as highs push into the upper 70's. Another short wave will fly through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, yet we'll remain dry here in southern Oregon and northern California. A dry cold front lagging behind this trough will eventually push through southern Oregon and northern California by Friday morning. With more northwest flow, temperatures will remain near normals for this time of year and we should see more fair weather cumulus build ups during the day west of the Cascades.

There is a low chance of rain showers Friday night into Saturday morning around Coos and Douglas counties. It seems this cooler unstable air and some weak lift aloft due to a trough to our north will allow some lighter showers to form there Saturday afternoon.

Eventually, this trough to our north will dive towards the south east during the day on Sunday and pull in some drier continental air from our north east. Overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night will likely be in the mid 30's in many of our valleys west of the Cascades and below freezing east of the Cascades. Therefore, we'll have to keep an eye out to see how low these temperatures end up falling. The probability for temperatures <32 degrees Sunday night in Medford is about 10%.

Temperatures gradually begin to warm up into the middle of next week. There is still uncertainty in how the middle of the week will pan out with some ensembles predicting slightly wetter solutions than what is currently in the forecast. Even if the do end up occuring, they won't be really wet as we would only see a few tenths of inch of rain from showers. Otherwise, most of next week will likely be dry with a ridge in the Pacific starting to settle over Oregon.

AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs.

Some MVFR ceilings are starting to settle in around North Bend and Roseburg this morning. Those will clear up as we mix out during the day. A dry cold front will bring another round of lower ceilings to the region Thursday night. MVFR ceilings are more likely, although IFR ceilings are possible under some heavier rain along the coast Thursday night.

MARINE...Updated 600 AM PDT Thursday, May 14, 2026

Increasing northerly winds return later this morning, resulting in advisory level winds each afternoon through Friday. Furthermore, steep seas are likely to develop Friday afternoon as a slight increase in northwest swell combines with wind seas to bring elevated wave heights. North winds persist through the weekend with more widespread advisory level wind speeds possible south of Cape Blanco. Meanwhile, a higher (7-9 ft) northwest swell builds into the waters over the weekend. The combination of winds and steep seas will likely result in small craft conditions for all waters by Saturday afternoon.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350- 370.