textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures trend warmer Friday into the weekend, peaking on Sunday with highs in the 90s to low 100s across inland valleys.

* Gusty winds and low humidities will bring elevated fire weather conditions today and Friday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Friday in portions of southeast Klamath, Lake and Modoc counties.

* Hot, dry and breezy weather this weekend.

* Unstable with potential for thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday, mainly from the Cascades east and Siskiyous south.

* Smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire will result in continued impacts downwind of of the fire.

DISCUSSION

An upper low just off the coast will gradually move northward tonight then inland over British Columbia late Friday. As this low gradually moves northward along the PacNW coast, breezy to gusty winds are expected for many inland areas this afternoon/evening and again Friday afternoon and evening, strongest east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. The combination of gusty winds and low humidities will result in elevated fire weather conditions. Please see the fire weather discussion below for details.

High pressure will build across the area late Friday through Sunday, with a upper trough staying further north. A significant warm up is expected on the weekend with highs peaking on Sunday 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Inland valleys are expected to reach the 90s to low 100s on Sunday. The National Blend of Models indicates a 60% chance for reaching 100 degrees at Medford and a 25% chance for reaching 100 degrees at Yreka.

High pressure remains in place across the region Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a low well off the coast of Baja and southern California is forecast to move northward on Monday. Ensembles show significant variability in the track and strength of this low. The operational GFS is stronger with the low and brings it northward off the coast of northern California Monday night into Tuesday. This would result in more southerly moisture aloft moving into the area Monday and Tuesday with chances (10-20%) for thunderstorms. The operational ECMWF keeps the low further south and as a result shows a drier pattern. However, even under this pattern, monsoonal moisture may move up the Sierra crest and into eastern portions of the area, bringing a slight chance for thunderstorms. The track of this low and the amount of moisture and cloud cover will factor into whether thunderstorms develop as well how hot temperatures will be early next week. We are continuing to monitor this pattern for the potential of thunderstorms and ongoing heat.

Smoke from the Evans Creek Fire is expected to continue to bring impacts to air quality across portions of southwest Oregon, and potentially into areas in Northern California. Smoke impacts have been greatest downwind of the fire in northern Jackson, eastern Douglas and Klamath Counties as west to northwest winds spread smoke to the east and southeast. The Rogue Valley near Medford and Ashland may seen daily pushes of smoke, especially in the evenings. This pattern will likely continue through Friday. On the weekend, some light northeast winds during the overnight and morning periods may allow additional smoke to spread into the Rogue Valley. Otherwise, daytime northwest to west winds from the Cascades west are likely to allow smoke from the fire to continue to impact areas in southwest Oregon (including northern Jackson, eastern Douglas and Klamath counties).

AVIATION...16/18Z TAFs

Thunderstorm chances are absent in the forecast as dry air aloft moves over the area. Marine stratus is clearing over Roseburg and is expected to clear over North Bend this afternoon but looks to return early Friday morning and bring MVFR levels through the end of this TAF period. Smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire looks to move over the Rogue Valley this evening, possibly affecting visibilities but MVFR levels are not expected. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, July 16, 2026

Below advisory levels continue in area waters, though with an area of gusty winds this afternoon in the inner waters near Brookings. Increasing north winds will build steep seas south of Cape Blanco Friday afternoon under a thermal trough pattern. Steep seas spread to northern waters by Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas are expected to diminish on Monday. -TAD

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, July 16, 2026

The slightly cooler temperatures today will be followed a warm up Friday through Sunday. The main concern in the near term, will be breezy to gusty winds and low daytime RHs today and Friday. The strongest winds and lowest RHs will be east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. Conditions may near critical levels late this afternoon and early this evening in the southern Shasta Valley, in southeastern zone 624 (southeast Klamath and southwest Lake) and zone 285 (Modoc). Then, conditions peak on Friday afternoon and evening, with critical conditions likely for southeast zone 624 and zone 285. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Friday afternoon into the evening in Fire Weather Zone 285 and the southern portion of 624 for gusty winds and low RHs. This covers southeast Klamath, southwest Lake, and Modoc counties. In the Shasta Valley, a brief period of critical fire weather conditions is possible in the late afternoon and early evening on Friday.

Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal are expected through the weekend. Afternoon wind speeds will trend back to typical values by Sunday. Humidities will remain very low on Saturday then trend slightly upward on Sunday.

The air mass will begin to moisten on Sunday with an increase of high clouds, and perhaps some east side cumulus buildups. Instability could develop as early as late Sunday night into Monday morning, but the risk of thunderstorms is not expected until Monday afternoon, continuing on Tuesday. Chances for those Monday thunderstorms have trended down, with very slight (5-10%) chances lingering in northern Lake and Klamath counties as well as near the Warners. On Tuesday, 10-15% chances cover most of the east side. For areas where thunderstorms do not develop, this instability added to continuing hot and dry conditions can lead to elevated critical condition concerns.

Model uncertainty increases further beginning Wednesday with differences in whether the unstable air mass will linger or shift east of our area.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.