textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Unlike our recent event, the probability of showers during each of the next couple of days (into Sunday evening) will be lowest at the coast. Meantime, the probability will be highest over the southern Oregon Cascades and north-northeastward, to include the Diamond Lake and Crater Lake vicinities into northern Klamath County.

* Showers today will be quite limited in coverage and intensity. Coverage will increase after sunrise Sunday morning, especially from the Cascades eastward, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible during Sunday afternoon and evening.

* Temperatures trend a little warmer again today and a little cooler Sunday, but remain 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Dry weather and a stronger, gradual warming trend follows Monday into at least Thursday. This includes highs near normal on Tuesday, and above normal at mid-week.

* Higher uncertainty late in the week, Friday through next weekend, with dry and warm weather most likely to continue. But, around 20% to 30% of ensemble model solutions on each day show at least scattered shower activity in a portion of the area.

DISCUSSION

The main determinant of our weather today and Sunday will be the wobbles of a nearly stationary upper level trough that extends from western Canada into northern California. A northward shift of the trough allowed for shower activity to diminish yesterday, and activity today will again be focused north of our area. But, at least the crest of the Cascades to the north of Lake of the Woods and northern Klamath County have a chance of measurable rain, with snow levels at around 8000 ft msl, higher than the Crater Lake Rim but lower than the highest peaks. Meantime, other portions of southern Oregon have a good chance of seeing some evening virga.

Compared to yesterday, the main shift in the data regarding the short term forecast is an increased probability of showers late tonight into Sunday morning, roughly from the Interstate 5 corridor eastward...though still focused over the Cascades into Klamath County. The probability of showers and thunderstorms will reach a peak during Sunday afternoon, wit scattered activity north of Crater Lake and isolated activity elsewhere, still roughly from the Interstate 5 corridor eastward. There is a sizable portion of the ensemble suite of data that has the western edge of activity a little farther east, along the Cascade crest. Amounts on Sunday of a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch should be common from the Cascades eastward, with a meausurable amount into the inland west side valleys. Activity looks to taper off Sunday evening as the trough tracks eastward.

Another shift is higher confidence in dry conditions and clearing skies on Monday/Labor Day, after areas of early to mid-morning coastal and Umpqua Valley stratus. The clearing will aid the warming trend, with near normal temperatures by Tuesday.

A ridge is likely to be the dominant upper level feature driving our weather at mid-week. The 06Z GFS has introduced a little influx of mid- level moisture to clip Modoc and southern Lake counties on Wednesday into Thursday. But, the large majority of ensemble solutions keep the monsoonal flow to the south and east, out of our area. The warming and drying trend is likely to continue at mid-week, with temperatures likely becoming a bit above normal, but a minority of ensembles ramping temperatures up farther. So, no, hot, summer temperatures are not necessarily done yet.

At the end of the forecast period, Friday into next weekend, uncertainty increases. There is disagreement over whether a closed low offshore from California will retrograde farther offshore (for further warming) or move closer to our area. About 20-30% (a minority) of solutions would introduce shower chances into our area. Depending on the track of this upper low offshore, many of the late week solutions that do favor shower development would also include at least a slight chance of thunderstorms.

AVIATION...05/12Z TAFs

Variable cloud cover this morning is mainly VFR, with patchy LIFR in stratus for the coastal valleys and Umpqua Valley that is expected to linger through around 18Z. Shower activity will be very limited, and at a minimum, this morning.

VFR is expected to continue to prevail in most areas today into Sunday morning, but there is a chance of showers over the Cascades and northern Klamath County this afternoon/evening. The probability of showers and mountain obscuration will increase late tonight into Sunday, with the highest probability over northern portions of Klamath and Lake counties.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, September 5, 2026

Light, variable winds shift to northerly in the southern waters this morning and across the area later today with subsiding seas. Low seas along with a few showers will persist through Sunday night. A thermal trough develops Monday, with gusty north winds and steep seas likely south of Port Orford through mid-week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.