textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)

Anticipating a VFR cycle through much of this TAF cycle. Satellite imagery shows an area of clouds moving south for areas along/near the Cascades and east. These clouds are starting to dissipate as they move south through drier air. Not anticipating any categorical changes, but both KMFR and KLMT could see some mid to high clouds overnight. Expecting mostly clear skies for the terminals through much of Monday. A marine layer is expected to move in and bring LIFR/IFR ceilings into North Bend Monday night. Otherwise, mostly light diurnal winds expected through this cycle.

-Guerrero

.New Aviation Section

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...

Guidance shows a high probability for VFR through this TAF cycle. That said, this was also the case for today; however, KOTH had a small patch of low clouds develop with visibility restrictions, and RBG had few hours of MVFR clouds develop in the Umpqua basin. Will monitor closely for tomorrow, but at this time there is only a 15%-20% for low clouds or visibility restrictions given the limited low level moisture, but again will monitor and update if necessary. Confidence is much higher for mostly clear skies across much of the area through this cycle.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 117 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Cool and dry conditions, with temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees below normal today and into Monday.

* Frost and freeze conditions in valleys west of the Cascades tonight into Monday morning and probably again Monday night into Tuesday morning.

* Temperatures trend warmer Tuesday through Friday as high pressure builds, peaking at about 5 to 10 degrees above normal late in the week.

* No significant chances for precipitation over the next week.

* Slight cooling possible next weekend, but rain chances remain low.

DISCUSSION...A deep, closed upper low will remain over eastern Oregon and continue to shape the weather across the area through Monday. Temperatures today and tomorrow will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Overall, expect sunny days and clear, cold nights with the exception of patchy late-night/early morning low clouds/fog. Breezy N-NE winds develop this afternoon/evening with many locations seeing peak gusts in the 25-35 mph range, highest in the NE-SW oriented valleys and over the higher terrain.

Frost/freezing conditions are expected again the next couple of mornings, likely ending the growing season in many areas west of the Cascades (namely the Illinois, Applegate, and Rogue valleys). We have frost/freeze headlines up for tonight, and where freezing conditions occur, this will be final night we issues those headlines. Other locations, such as the Umpqua Basin where only frost conditions are expected tonight, will still see freeze headlines when/if they are necessary.

The cold upper trough will gradually edge southward into NW Nevada late Monday and eventually into Utah by Tuesday. Other than a stray shower here or there over the East Side, a lack of moisture will preclude any significant precip.

Upper ridging develops and amplifies over the area mid-late this week (esp Wed-Fri). This will result in a warming trend with temperatures getting back above normal levels (about 5-10F) -- not as warm as last week, but still warm by mid-October standards.

Models are showing another mostly dry front/marine push arriving this weekend, which could bring some cooling over inland areas. But, at this time, other than some light showers/drizzle along the coast or just inland, dry weather prevails.

The next chance at a somewhat stronger front looks to be out around Oct 19th.

AVIATION...11/18Z TAFs...VFR levels persist across terminals in northern California and southern Oregon. Northeast flow will bring some cloud cover over parts of Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties through the TAF period but precipitation is not expected. Gusty winds are already present east of the Cascades and are expected to develop to the west this afternoon and evening before easing into the night. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Sunday, October 11, 2026...Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas will persist through this evening. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest south of Port Orford. Occasional gale force gusts (up to 40 kt) are possible just offshore and south of Gold Beach this afternoon/evening. Winds and seas begin to subside Monday, but conditions hazardous to small craft are likely to continue into Tuesday, especially south of Port Orford. Improved conditions are expected for the rest of the week.

West-northwest long period swell will continue to build to a peak today at around 5-6 feet at 19-20 seconds. This could produce dangerous bar conditions, heavier than normal surf, and abnormal currents. The swell will then very slowly diminish Monday into Tuesday, continuing at 4-5 ft while the period lowers to 14 seconds. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1230 PM PDT Sunday, October 11, 2026... West-northwest swell will peak this afternoon and evening at around 5-6 feet at 19-20 seconds. This long period swell will result in a heightened risk for sneaker waves and wave run-ups of unusual size through Monday evening.

While the threat for sneaker waves will be persistent throughout today and Monday, the highest risk is expected during periods of incoming tides. High tides along the southern Oregon coast are expected roughly around noon to 1 PM PDT, and again around Midnight to 1 AM PDT.

If visiting the coast Sunday or Monday, stay vigilant for incoming waves. Stay far away from the surf zone and never turn your back to the ocean.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for ORZ024-026.

Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for ORZ023.

CA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.