textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Radar returns are showing activity developing over southeast Klamath County early this afternoon, following westward flow wrapping around a cutoff low. Activity looks to increase later into the afternoon, especially over Siskiyou County. Northwest flow aloft is expected to move activity over Jackson and Josephine counties. Curry and Douglas counties may see some activity as well. Overall rainfall amounts are fairly negligible, but periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible under any thunderstorm. This may be more likely in the Illinois Valley, which has estimates of 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall through tonight. Thunderstorms may also bring erratic gusty winds as well as lightning. Rain showers may continue into tonight but should dissipate by early Monday morning.

Another round of thunderstorm activity is expected on Monday afternoon and evening. With the cutoff low farther to the east, most activity is expected over Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Southern Lake and Klamath counties may also see some activity. Modeled CAPE values are somewhat moderate, in the 400-600 J/Kg range. This is enough to support additional thunderstorms but doesn't imply severe activity. Rain showers are expected as well, with amounts in the 0.2 to 0.5 inch range possible along the Lake/Modoc southern border.

An upper ridge settles into place through the day Tuesday and looks to remain in control of conditions through the rest of the forecast period and beyond. The Oregon coast is forecast to be about 5 degrees above seasonal norms, with highs in the mid 60s. Inland areas are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Areas east of the Cascades as well as the Umpqua Valley have forecast highs in the high 70s to low 80s, while other west side valleys could reach the mid 80s. A passing front could flatten the ridge somewhat, bringing a bit of relief into Friday and Saturday before temperatures rebound on Sunday. NBM probabilistic data keeps Medford out of the 90s for this week, but has 40-60% chances for next Sunday and into the start of the following week. -TAD

AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail across most of the region with mid and high level clouds streaming in from the south. Along the coast, LIFR conditions in fog will persist through much of the morning. Marine stratus will be rather persistent today, but should lift to at least IFR during the afternoon hours before fog and low ceilings fill back in this evening and overnight.

Another round of shower/thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon and evening. Storm motion will be from east to west today with guidance showing the focus of activity occurring across northern California into Jackson/Josephine Counties, and even possibly as far north as Roseburg. Expect gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms today.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Sunday, May 3, 2026

An extended period of relatively calm conditions begins today, with seas remaining below 10 ft for the next several days. Light south winds and fog are expected through Monday night, with gradually diminishing seas. Moderate north winds return by Thursday, with stronger north winds possible late next weekend with the return of the thermal trough.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.