textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

The two main updates this morning were to fine tune this morning's coverage of fog/freezing fog in west side valleys, and a slight change to extend the Air Stagnation Advisory /PDXNPWMFR/ for southern Oregon valleys farther into Friday morning to mirror the Air Quality Alert issued by the Oregon DEQ /PDXAQAMFR/.

As was the case yesterday, a Freezing Fog Advisory is in effect this morning for Josephine, Jackson, and western Siskiyou County valleys.

In the big picture, the data still supports little change in our current weather pattern through at least a week, early next Tuesday. There is a high degree of uncertainty in when the persistent ridge will stop being the dominant driver of our weather. But, a majority of ensemble solutions indicate the ridge will eventually flatten/weaken with a transition to northwest flow aloft. Also, this change to wet weather later next week in Day 8-10 has the highest probability that at least the first front or two will be on the weaker side of what is typical for this time of year.

In the meantime, Brookings will be one of the few places in our area that clearly notices much day-to-day change in conditions, with downslope warming from east winds (15 to 30 mph at Coast Range ridges) anticipated for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on both days are likely to be in the mid to upper 60s, though possibly as warm as the lower 70s. The changes will be more subtle elsewhere with continued colder than normal mornings, and a very gradual warming trend of afternoon high temperatures into the weekend. The temperature forecast will depend heavily on the local duration and coverage of mainly night and morning fog. As such, though a warming trend is likely, the extent of the Thursday through Monday warm- up of Rogue Valley high temperatures is still in question.

AVIATION...13/12Z TAFs

Areas of fog and freezing fog with LIFR have developed in valleys west of the Cascades, including in Coos, Douglas, Josephine, Jackson, and western Siskiyou counties. Patchy fog is also possible this morning in the Klamath Basin near Klamath Falls and Shasta Valley near Montague. These conditions will persist this morning, then gradually lift and clear. Lower conditions will likely linger longest in the Rogue and Illinois valleys, with clearing possibly delayed until 21-22z this afternoon.

Outside of the valleys, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Coastal locations will remain VFR, except for fog from the Coquille Basin which is expected to affect North Bend during the morning.

The pattern of conditions is expected to repeat again, with valley fog developing this evening and continuing into Wednesday morning.

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Tuesday, January 13, 2026

The forecast was updated to issue a Small Craft Advisory from Wednesday morning through Thursday night.

West swell dominated seas will diminish from this morning into this evening. This improvement will be brief, with seas reaching a minimum of 6 to 7 ft.

A thermal trough brings gusty north winds with steep seas from Wednesday into Thursday night. North winds may briefly gust to gale force, and seas will be very near to becoming very steep, with a potential for an upgrade to a Hazardous Seas Warning (especially in the outer waters). The strongest winds and highest seas are likely during Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the combination of north wind waves and west swell producing seas of 8 to 12 feet with a dominant period of 16 seconds on Wednesday decreasing to 13 seconds on Thursday. Conditions are expected to improve Friday through the weekend.

BEACH HAZARDS

Updated 230 AM PST Tuesday, January 13, 2026...Though the risk is lessened by combining with two other, slightly shorter period west swell trains, a building long period west swell will provide a slightly enhanced risk of sneaker waves during Wednesday morning.

If you plan to visit area beaches, please be aware of the dangers sneaker waves pose to beach goers. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches. NEVER turn your back on the ocean!

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freezing Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for ORZ024- 026.

Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for ORZ023-024- 026-029>031.

CA...Freezing Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.