textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...06/00Z TAFS

Isolated showers over the East Side this evening will dissipate as the sun sets with VFR prevailing through the next 24 hours. A fairly deep marine layer exists along the coast this evening with MVFR ceilings around 1500 ft. These ceilings briefly broke at North Bend this afternoon, but will return tonight and could lower to IFR at times as well (in the 500-1000 ft range). Ceilings are expected to fill into the Umpqua Basin again later tonight, so MVFR is likely to return to Roseburg and last through most of the morning before breaking to VFR after 19Z. Medford should remain VFR, though patches of stratus could spill through gaps in the Umpqua Divide to near Grants Pass. Stratus impacting the northern portions of the Sacramento Valley (near Redding) could expand into areas near and just south/southeast of Mt. Shasta (far SE Siskiyou/SW Modoc counties) tonight/Wed morning before breaking to VFR again. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 149 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026/

DISCUSSION...

A strong marine layer is retreating this afternoon with plenty of cumulus build up east of the Cascades. The latest high resolution ensemble forecast system runs shows a very low risk of thunderstorms east of the Cascades. Although not impossible, the odds are under 5%, mostly due to lack of moisture. Forecast soundings do show deep mixing with surface air parcels meeting the level of free convection height around 8000 feet. However, the area of CAPE and convection should be very shallow and warmer than -10C, so lightning is not anticipated.

By tonight, we're looking at another marine layer in the Umpqua Basin, perhaps with some patchy fog along the coast and in a few of the river valleys. Given the time of year, the chance of fog is really slim in some of the valleys farther inland.

Otherwise, the main story for the rest of the week will be temperatures warmer than normal. Highs in Medford will be pushing into the mid 80s and 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal, yet well short of record highs for early May. 850mb and 700mb temperatures will be in the 97th percentile for late April and early May based off of NAEFS forecast data. Overall, this drives home the point we're looking at above normal temperatures until Thursday.

By Friday, a shortwave will break down the ridge and we'll see temperatures trend 5 degrees cooler compared to Thursday. The probability of precipitation forecast is near 0 percent as this short wave moves on shore, so it's looking pretty dry Friday into early next week.

The ridge builds back in around the weekend with some signs of a thermal trough building along the coast. The warmer than normal temperatures will likely continue with some drier air in place for this weekend.

-Smith

&&

AVIATION (18 TAFs)...

A strong marine push all the way to the Cascades this morning is starting to erode towards the coast, with MVFR/IFR and terrain obscurations also retreating to the west. Expecting conditions to clear up this afternoon for inland sites, but not expecting too much relief for North Bend. There is a low end chance for isolated showers/thunderstorms today with KLMT having the relatively higher chance to see this threat. The marine layer is expected to push back in tonight, but not as far, with additional MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility through the coastal mountains and into the Umpqua Basin and Roseburg, and perhaps portions of the Rogue Basin, with a low chance of impacts at Medford.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Tuesday, May 5, 2026....An extended period of relatively calm conditions will continue through Wednesday night, with west-northwest swell dominated seas likely remaining below 8 ft. North winds and steep seas briefly increase Thursday south of Cape Blanco, then diminish again by Thursday night. A thermal trough will develop Saturday, resulting in gusty north winds and steep seas through early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.