textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Showers are moving through the forecast area this morning with light precipitation starting to fall along the coast. No lightning has been observed over the water yet, although satellite does show some stronger convective showers over the waters along the cold front. We did lower the QPF a bit based on radar and satellite trends. It seem we were over forecasting precipitation, so precipitation accumulation should be lighter with up to 0.1 inches looking like the higher end of things this morning.

We'll see this cold front move through today and cool down temperatures on the mid slopes and ridges compared to 24 hours ago. High temps in the valleys shouldn't change much as breaks in the clouds should allow us to warm into the 50's.

After this front moves through, high pressure will build over southern Oregon and northern California for much of the week. We're looking at above normal temperatures with pockets of upper 60's over some of the mid slopes like Butte Falls and Prospect. The main weather impact could be an air stagnation advisory for the majority of the week. The latest GFS BUFR soundings only have MFR mixing to about 600 feet Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, which is likely too low. However, we could still struggle to mix to 1000 feet during the day with a strong enough inversion.

Ensembles are pretty confident it will remain dry through the 7th, then things could start to change after that. We're currently forecasting a 30% chance of rain around 0Z on the 8th with those probabilities increasing to 50 percent during the day.

Overall, pretty low impact weather continues to start the month of February.

-Smith

AVIATION...01/18Z TAFs

IFR and LIFR conditions are present along the Oregon coast but are expected to clear out before the afternoon. VFR levels are generally expected across the area this afternoon through the end of the TAF period. West side valleys may see some patchy fog late tonight into early Monday morning, with the highest chances in the Umpqua Valley. Anything that develops overnight would most likely clear out on Monday morning. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, February 1, 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of the waters through Monday evening.

Seas are gradually increasing over the waters as a cold front moves through this morning. High and steep seas will build to a peak later tonight, but persist through Monday evening. Winds and seas are expected to diminish on Tuesday, then west swell dominated seas build and may become high and steep again for Wednesday through Friday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.