textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...07/12Z TAFs

The marine layer blankets the coast and coastal waters this morning, resulting IFR ceilings. Marine stratus has pushed some into the Umpqua Basin, but it should remain west of the I-5 corridor and VFR conditions should continue at Roseburg. The marine layer will peel back to the coast later this morning, with conditions likely improving to VFR along the coast by 19-21z. VFR conditions will prevail for all other areas through the TAF period. Expect some gusty winds to develop this afternoon, both along the coast and east of the Cascades. Winds will ease after sunset, and the marine layer is likely to return to the coast again after 03z, bringing another round of IFR conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 246 AM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026/

DISCUSSION...In general, upper level troughing will dominate the weather this week, though we'll be between systems under a split flow regime. Waves of low pressure will skate by to the north through British Columbia this week while another low pressure system meanders offshore of California through mid-week before moving southward over the weekend. Temperatures will trend cooler with periods of showers and thunderstorms possible through week, especially the latter half of the week. Heading into the weekend, the northern branch of systems sags farther south, bringing more stable conditions with increasing chances for more widespread showers and cooler temperatures.

Another quiet morning is underway with satellite imagery showing some high level clouds streaming across the region and marine stratus blanketing the coast. These low clouds have filled in all the coastal valleys, but that should be the extent of inland intrusion this morning. Another low impact weather day is expected this afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms remain out of the forecast today, but there will likely be some cumulus clouds over the higher terrain today. Afternoon temperatures will again be well above seasonal normals today, feeling more on par with June than April, but will trend a few degrees cooler compared to Monday's readings. It'll get breezy this afternoon as a shortwave passes to the north and low pressure offshore moves closer to the coast. Winds will be strongest east of the Cascades with gusts of 15 to 25 mph common.

Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday and linger through the remainder of the week. Low pressure moves closer to the California coast on Wednesday and hovers there through Friday. This will put the region under favorable dynamics for showers and thunderstorms, especially Thursday and Friday. Overall, the greatest activity is expected south of the OR/CA border, but there are some position differences on the location of the upper level low and this will influence how far north of the OR/CA border that showers/thunderstorms make it. For Wednesday, most activity is expected across northern California with the northern most extent expected Thursday and Friday. Despite the position differences, the better chances for shower/thunderstorm activity will be across northern California, Siskiyous/Cascades and the East Side. With southerly flow, however, showers/thunderstorms over the Siskiyous could move into portions of Jackson/Josephine Counties Thursday and Friday afternoons.

Low pressure responsible the late week thunderstorm activity shifts southward on Saturday as low pressure from the north digs southward. Recent guidance has trended farther south with this digging low. This would result in more interaction with the departing low, and with better dynamics over the region on Saturday, there could be more widespread beneficial rainfall for more of the area. It still looks like the atmosphere will stabilize Saturday compared to Thursday and Friday, with more of a widespread showers/embedded thunderstorms pattern vs a southerly flow thunderstorm pattern. With the "digging farther south" trend, showers linger into Sunday, though diminish in coverage late in the day and even moreso into Monday. Hopefully, the "digging farther south" trend doesn't continue with subsequent model runs, because then precipitation chances will dwindle for the weekend. As currently depicted, the National Blend of Models giving about a 50-70% chance of precipitation across the whole area on Saturday, then lowers to 30- 50% for Sunday and 15-30% for Monday. Snow levels are forecast to lower to around 4500-5000 ft Saturday night into Sunday, but with precipitation winding down as snow levels lower, snow amounts are currently expected to be light. Temperatures will trend significantly cooler over the weekend, and it will feel pretty cool due to how warm it currently is. In reality, however, high temperatures will simply return to more seasonal values over the weekend (mid 50s East, mid 60s West).

While details are highly variable at this point in time, both GFS and EC ensembles maintain periods of wet weather with temperatures closer to seasonable values beyond the weekend and through next week. This lines up well with the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook which predicts temperatures and precipitation both leaning toward above normal values (30-50% chance).

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, April 7, 2026...Fog and low clouds will persist over the waters through this morning morning. A weak thermal trough develops on Tuesday, resulting some gusty north winds that will create borderline advisory level seas today through Wednesday. The thermal trough weakens on Thursday as the upper level pattern transitions. A trough approaches the California coast on Thursday, then shifts southward over the weekend. This will continue the pattern of low pressure inland and high pressure offshore, resulting in periods of increased north winds and steep seas with borderline advisory conditions possible through the end of the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.