textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Above normal temperatures continue through the forecast (70s/80s) * A dry front arrives today to cool temperatures slightly with breezy N/NW winds * Ridging returns Saturday, bringing the warmest temperatures of this week * After a slight cooldown Sunday, another warmup arrives early next week

Satellite shows marine stratus across most of Coos and Curry counties, and a few showers are possible through the morning near the coast near Brookings. This is forecast to expand to the Umpqua Basin as well. A dry front arrives today, and this will bring a more westerly/northwesterly flow to the area and a slight cooldown.

Highs today will be in the 60s and 70s mostly, which is still ~5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. The north/northwest winds will be stronger this afternoon/evening with 10-15 mph winds and 15-20 mph gusts. Ridging quickly returns to start the weekend, and this will bring the warmest temperatures of this week Saturday. Most inland locations will see 70s or 80s Saturday, and the coast will reach the low 70s. The latest record for May 9 is 95 degrees (1936) for Medford and 90 degrees (1906) for Klamath Falls, and the forecast highs are a few degrees shy of these. Nonetheless, precautions need to be made when heading outdoors including staying hydrated and staying in the shade when possible. Minimum relative humidities are forecast to drop to the 10-20% range Saturday afternoon east of the Cascades.

The ridge will move eastward Sunday. East side temperatures will be similar to Saturday while west side drops 5-10 degrees. RHs east of the Cascades will drop to the teens and low 20s in the afternoon with W/NW winds peaking around 12-17 mph. The coast will also see stronger winds near 10-15 mph Sunday afternoon. -Hermansen

Monday and beyond: Temperatures warm up again on Monday. It looks like the GFS is forecasting a dry cold front stalling out in Central Oregon and the latest WPC surface front forecast agree with us in that assessment. The GFS 1000-500 mb layer RH looks rather dry around Bend Monday afternoon and evening, which led us to thing something is there.

We'll see another thermal trough likely develop over the Oregon coast as high pressure builds farther to the east and broad east flow develops over southern Oregon and northern California. East flow will be light, but strong enough to warm push Medford to 90 degrees in the latest NBM forecast, which still might be a few degrees to low.

Mount Shasta City is currently a few degrees under the record high on Monday and Tuesday, although they could challenge the record high temperatures on Tuesday the 12th and 13th.

Finally, the 12Z ECMWF ensemble is showing hints of precipitation Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Some models(~20%) are bringing what looks like thunderstorms developing over southern Oregon and northern California. Others are showing a west to east trough progression, which might result in a cooler showery type of rain, mostly in northern Oregon. In any case, it will be something to watch in future forecast runs.

-Smith

AVIATION...08/12Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail for most areas. MVFR/IFR conditions in marine stratus are found along the coast and over the marine waters that will continue this morning. Marine stratus is starting to push inland into the Umpqua Basin as a weak front moves through the region today. There could be some MVFR ceilings that bank up against the Siskiyous/Cascades in portions of Jackson County, though VFR conditions should prevail at the Medford terminal. This weak front will likely break up the marine layer early today, resulting in improving conditions along the coast between 18-21z. Otherwise, expect an increase in mid-high level clouds and another round of gusty winds this afternoon.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Friday, May 8, 2026

Sub-advisory conditions will persist today and likely into Saturday as well. North winds and westerly swell increase slightly Saturday, which could bring some isolated areas of steep seas south of Cape Blanco. A thermal trough develops later this weekend, bringing increasing north winds and wind driven steep seas south of Cape Blanco that are likely to spread north by Monday. Steep seas likely continue through mid-week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.