textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

A transient upper trough will swing by to the north of the area today, and, other than some mid and high level cloudiness, will largely go unnoticed. We're not expecting any precipitation and after a chilly start this morning, we'll have another milder afternoon with highs largely in the 50s west of the Cascades and in the mid to upper 40s over the East Side. Sunshine will be dimmed by the clouds, however.

The upper ridge axis following today's trough will move in quickly tonight and then shift east of the Cascades on Tuesday. This will open the door for the first decent Pacific front to arrive into the area in more than 2 weeks! This system packs some decent 925-850mb winds and will support a band of rain that will develop over the coastal waters late Tuesday morning/early Tuesday afternoon, and then move onshore Tuesday afternoon and evening. Gale force winds and very steep seas will accompany the front over the marine waters. There will also be gusty south winds along the coast, but we don't think they'll be high enough to warrant a high wind warning. Model pressure gradients are only -4 to -6 mb KOTH-KACV and while that supports peak wind gusts at the coastal headlands of 45-55 mph, that's not quite there for a warning. Farther inland, the usual suspects will get breezy to windy on Tuesday (esp Shasta Valley). Model wind fields are showing potential for SSE wind gusts in the 45-50 mph range at Weed. Therefore, we issued a wind advisory there for most of Tuesday and into Tuesday evening. The front will lose its punch as it moves inland, so while we stand a good chance (~60-70%) of at least seeing a little rainfall here in the Rogue Valley, model guidance is generally showing less than 0.10 of an inch. With the exception of the Illinois Valley, some of the driest models have the precip completely skipping over the west wide valleys. The coast will get the most with 0.25-0.50 of an inch and locally up to 1.00 inch in the Curry Coast Range mountains. East Side areas largely miss out on the rain, but there is about a 30% chance of light rain Tuesday night. Snow amounts in the Cascades/Siskiyous will be minimal, generally an inch or less.

A shortwave upper ridge will swing through on Wednesday with surface ridging over NE California. This should bring dry weather again to most of the CWA, but there's a chance of rain along the coast and in the Cascades north of Highway 140 as a warm front lifts northward offshore. With the ridge axis shifting to the east Wednesday night, onshore flow could allow for slightly better precip chances along the coast into Thursday morning. But, this will all shift to the north again as the upper ridge amplifies near and east of the Cascades into Idaho Thursday afternoon and night. South to southwest flow aloft will be mostly parallel to the frontal system offshore and this will direct most of the precip associated with that to our north. Still, it will keep chance to likely PoPs along the coast late this week into the weekend.

AVIATION...26/12Z TAFs

Mid and high level cloudiness is keeping fog from forming in most places early this morning. Patchy fog could still develop around sunrise, but it should be short-lived. Otherwise, expect VFR through the TAF period for all TAF sites.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Monday, January 26, 2026

Southerly winds will gradually increase today but winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory levels. South winds will increase further ahead of a cold front tonight, then even moreso on Tuesday. Recent model guidance is showing pretty solid probabilities of gales for most of the marine waters on Tuesday, so we decided to upgrade the Hazardous Seas Watch to a Gale Warning. Conditions peak on Tuesday with gales and very steep hazardous seas, then winds lower Tuesday night. Longer period west swell is expected to build into the waters late Wednesday into Thursday, peaking at around 13 to 17 ft at 15 seconds.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356.

Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ370-376.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ370-376.