textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Persistent upper ridging will continue to bring dry weather area wide today. Satellite imagery this morning is showing some low clouds/fog in the west side valleys, but these should dissipate by late morning. There are some high clouds out there as well, but overall, we expect sunshine and a mild afternoon with high temperatures nearing records in some locations. Here are today's record highs and the year in which they were set -- Medford (70 in 1963), Roseburg (67 in 1941), North Bend (68 in 1926), Klamath Falls (59 in 1995), Mount Shasta City (66 in 2007), Montague (68 in 1995) and Alturas (64 in 2015).

The upper ridge axis will be well to our east tonight into Friday and this will allow an offshore disturbance aloft to move toward southern California. Even so, this feature is very weak and lacks moisture for any precipitation up our way. PoPs over SW Oregon and NorCal remain less than 5% on Friday. Nearest precipitation with this system will be down in southern California, nearest the Sierra, and south of Tahoe. The air mass aloft cools slightly, but it will remain mild for this time of year.

Another weak upper ridge will nose into the area Friday night into Saturday morning, with increasing onshore flow at the coast. This could result in a little light rain and/or drizzle (15-30% chance) out of any stratus that develops, but the real precipitation remains associated with a stronger upper trough offshore. We think most inland areas will stay dry again all day Saturday, though rain chances increase to ~40-50% along the coast during the afternoon.

The cold front offshore will arrive at the coast Saturday night, and then move inland west of the Cascades during Sunday. It may take a good chunk of Sunday for steadiest rain to reach Medford. This is because models are showing a weak surface wave developing along the front that could hold it up a bit while bringing decent rain to the coast. Eventually, it will get a kick eastward from the upstream upper trough and will move east of the Cascades Sunday night. Best rain is likely in Medford Sunday evening. Overall, rain amounts of 1-2 inches seem like a good bet along the coast (perhaps a bit more in the Curry Coast range mountains). We aren't expecting much more than nuisance ponding of water on roadways. 0.50-1.00 inch for most inland areas over to the Cascades and into western Siskiyou County, though slightly lower totals here in the Rogue Valley (0.25-0.50). East Side and NorCal (from Shasta Valley eastward) amounts will mostly vary from 0.10-0.25 of an inch, with slightly higher amounts over the mountains. Snow levels are likely to start out quite high around 6500-7000 feet, but will drop to around 3500-4000 feet by Monday morning (with precip ending). It should be noted that we expect a period of gusty south to southwest winds in advance of or with the front Sunday with the usual suspects (Shasta Valley and East Side) with the best chance at seeing wind gusts approach advisory levels (45 mph). Right now, flow appears a bit too southwesterly for much more than 40 mph peak wind gusts in the Shasta Valley, but could see 45 mph at Summer Lake. Snow amounts will be highest Sunday night in the Cascades (Highway 140 northward) where 2-6 inches are possible during the 12-hour period 10p-4a. This could make the Monday morning commute slippery over the mountains and also for portions of the East Side along Highway 140 and Highway 97 (something to be aware of given this long stretch of mild weather we've been in). Post-frontal showers could continue on the west slopes of the mountains and along the coast Monday, but things should gradually dry out again.

Not much change in the guidance for next week. Models are still showing split flow Mon night-Wed, so while that will likely mean another disturbance moving through or nearby, it might also mean they're far enough south/southwest or offshore just enough to not have significant impact, except at the coast or in NorCal where precip chances are highest. Models keep mostly chance PoPs (30-50%) in the forecast (higher ~60% along the coast), but this does not look like a large precip producer given the split flow pattern. After another mid week break, the next front could arrive Thu night/Friday.

AVIATION...05/12Z TAFs

A similar story compared to 24 hours ago -- fog/low clouds will result in IFR/LIFR conditions in some valleys west of the Cascades, especially from the Illinois Valley to Grants Pass (K3S8) and northward along I-5 to the Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg (KRBG). Areas of fog are also evident in the Camas Valley and the Coquille Valley near Coquille/Myrtle Point this morning. Fog is unlikely in Medford, though outlying areas could see some lower visibility. All lower conditions should become VFR by around 18-19Z. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail for the next 24 hours.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Thursday, February 5, 2026

Steep west swell will persist today, then south winds and additional swell will increase through this weekend with the approach and arrival of a cold front. A front will produce increased south winds, steep seas, and low visibility conditions in rain this weekend....

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.