textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Key Points:

* Snow: Minor impacts today/tonight - Cascades: Amounts mainly for elevations above 4,000 ft - Winter Weather Advisory for Crater Lake area

* Rainfall: Minor/limited impacts today/tonight - Not expecting flooding - Mainly nuisance ponding on roadways - Isolated thunder this afternoon/early evening

* Wind: Minor/limited impacts today/tonight - Wind gusts of 35-40 mph isolated 45mph

Further Details:

Today remains the highlight of the forecast (and focus for this discussion) given potential minor/limited impacts from snow, rain, and wind. Snowfall rates could briefly reach upwards around 0.5"- 1.0"/hr for a few hours Wednesday morning between 7am and 10am. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for areas/passes around Crater Lake where amounts will be highest and could disrupt travel. Snow accumulation generally expected across the higher terrain of the Cascades north of highway 140 and areas around Lake of the Woods above 4000 ft. Amounts generally around 4-12 inches expected through tonight for the roughly 30 hour event with amounts highest across the higher terrain. The one caveat is the dry air seen in forecast soundings within the dendritic growth zone. Our forecast may be on the higher end for accumulation given the lack of saturation aloft. It doesn't take much snow to create travel disruptions, so the winter weather advisory remains valid even if we see lesser amounts around some of these passes.

Rain is spreading across the region this morning. These chances will continue to spread west to east through tonight. Rainfall amounts around 0.50"-1.25" will be possible along and near the coast as well as areas of Douglas County. Highest amounts across the coastal ranges. The probability for 24hr rainfall of 1.00" or greater is ~20%- 60% for areas near the coast and coastal ranges in addition to higher terrain of Douglas County. That said, the areal extent of these areas has shrunk and confined to mostly Curry County and northern parts of Douglas County. Not expecting flooding, but nuisance type ponding on roadways could lead to some travel disruption. Other areas will see less rainfall, especially valleys where downsloping will limit accumulations. Eastside and northern California areas will also be on the lesser end of the spectrum. MUCAPE values this afternoon could range from 200-300 J/kg, so there may be some rumbles of thunder today as well. We are not expecting severe weather today, but lightning will be a threat through roughly sunset.

Wind gusts probabilities remain borderline for advisory conditions. For the most part, gusts are expected to be around 35 to 40 mph with only isolated areas of potential gusts upwards near 45mph. Will continue to hold off on any wind headlines, but occasionally gusty winds will be expected this afternoon.

Looking ahead, it does look like we will see a general drying trend Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, areas along/near the coast and areas north of the Umpqua divide may see very light rainfall chances continue Friday and then early parts of next week. We are not expecting much--if any--impacts from these light precipitation chances.

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

A front will continue to pass through the area today. This will result in increasing shower activity with isolated thunder through the afternoon hours. Showers will become more isolated as the day progresses and continue to decrease through the overnight period. Conditions will generally be in MVFR through this cycle but periods of VFR may also be observed.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Winds increase and seas steepen today as a front moves through the area. Showers and low visibility are possible today and tonight, with a chance for isolated thunderstorms today as well. Shower activity decreases Thursday but more showers return on Friday. Steep seas return this weekend primarily across our southern waters.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ027.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.