textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

The last punch of this atmospheric river(AR) is moving through the forecast area this morning. Rainfall has been notable or perhaps some would say significant with North Bend breaking a daily record of 3.5 inches of rain on Monday. Away from the coast, totals have been around 2.0 in the southern Illinois Valley with 0.5 inches in some of our valleys west of the Cascades.

We remain in the peak of this AR with another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain coming over the next 12 hours in our wetter spots. One can also expect an additional 0.2 to 0.5 inches in valley locations across the region. We considered an areal flood advisory this morning due to the 2 inches of rain in the southern Illinois over 24 hours and the EFI around 0.9 with a shift of tails of 1. However, these forecast parameters have not resulted in real world impacts yet. Small streams are likely running high in wilderness locations based on some data from the national water model.

Rivers also seem to be following the latest river height forecasts. There are flood watches out for the Coquille river at Coquille and Myrtle Point as both those locations will come very close to minor flood stage.

We also noted the wide variety of snow levels across the region this morning. Snow levels are likely around 9000 feet around Mt. Ashland and down to 4000 feet around Chemult as it's snowing there based on tripcheck cameras. The weather sensors near the cameras are also reporting temperatures right around freezing.

Winds also remain breezy this morning with Weed CA reporting gusts to 45 to 50 mph. Some of those winds should pick up east of the Cascades later tonight into Wednesday as 700 mb winds pick up around 40 to 45 knots. Mixing up to 700 mb doesn't look great, although some of our windier spots should gust to 50 mph based on how it usually works out there.

Eventually, a cold front will move through the region later tonight and precipitation will rapidly drop off once the front passes. High pressure will continue to build Wednesday evening through the rest of the week. Fog and freezing fog in the valleys will become the main weather topic through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION...24/18Z TAFS

Rainfall from an atmospheric river continues this morning over a large portion of northern California and southern Oregon. LIFR ceilings remain along the coast, even as rain has eased over North Bend. Inland areas are generally seeing VFR to MVFR ceilings, although continuing showers will bring locally lower ceilings and visibilities.

Widespread rainfall will decrease this afternoon and evening, with scattered showers possible into Wednesday morning. Coastal areas and valleys are expected to see MVFR to IFR ceilings overnight, possibly through the end of the TAF period for some areas. Patchy fog may develop as well, with expectations for more widespread fog minimal given the persisting ceilings. If ceilings break for area valleys and low-lying areas, fog chances for early Wednesday morning may increase. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Seas are high and steep this morning with some southerly winds in the southern waters. Seas state will remain hazardous to smaller crafts through the day into the evening hours as a fresh southerly swell moves in. Conditions improve mid week as high pressure builds and wave heights lower.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ORZ021>024-026.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ030-031.

CA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for CAZ080-081.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.