textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Daytime highs across areas west of the Cascades should be slightly cooler today than they were on Thursday as an upper ridge over the Pacific Ocean flattens slightly and decreases atmospheric pressure. Westerly zonal flow will keep bringing moisture for light showers to Coos and northwestern Douglas counties, but little other inland activity is expected through the day today.

A shortwave trough passing to the north will bring some coastal showers this evening, with inland showers expected through Saturday morning. Amounts have trended upward slightly but remain unimpactful. Coastal areas could see up to an inch of rainfall while coastal ranges could approach an inch and a half. Snow levels look to be at 6500-7000 feet, keeping snowfall to Cascades peaks and ridgelines. In these areas, 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is possible. Western Cascades foothills could see about half an inch of rainfall, with minimal rainfall to the east. Precipitation trails off by Saturday afternoon.

This trough will also bring gusty winds along and east of the Cascades through most of Saturday. For Lake County and especially along Winter Rim, these gusts could reach 45 to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory for this evening into Saturday morning remain in place to more fully communicate these expected hazardous conditions.

Beyond the Saturday shortwave, the Pacific ridge looks to strengthen and establish a stable pattern through most if not all of the week ahead. This will bring a warning trend starting on Sunday. Forecast daytime highs remain 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages across the area by the middle of next week. Broadly speaking, coastal areas will see daytime highs in the mid to high 60s while west side valleys will be in the mid to high 70s. Low elevation areas in Lake and Klamath counties may stay in the low to mid 70s, while parts of Siskiyou and Modoc counties may see a few extra degrees of warming. Per NBM probabilistic guidance, Alturas has a 50-65% to see daytime highs above 80 degrees from Tuesday into Saturday while Medford and Montague have a 15-20% chance and only towards the end of the week. These warm conditions do bring Minor HeatRisk levels to the area through most of next week. Minor levels do not support an Advisory product, but individuals who are extremely sensitive to warm conditions may be at risk of heat-related illnesses next week.

Cooler temperatures are possible for next weekend, although there is some uncertainty in the timing and amount of cooling. To illustrate this, let's consider the interquartile range for Roseburg;s daytime highs. An example of a "usual" short-term interquartile range (the range between the 25th percentile and 75th percentile outcomes) for a high temperature might be 3 to 6 degrees. At Roseburg for this Saturday, that range is 3 degrees; we'd expect a high between 46 and 49 degrees. For Saturday the 21st, that range is 23 degrees; we'd expect a temperature between 56 and 79 degrees. This happens when long-term models see a wide range of outcomes. Of course, this range should decrease as the pattern for next weekend comes into focus. -TAD

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

A stalled front to the north will eventually push through the area tonight bringing widespread shower activity impacting all the terminals west of the Cascades. KLMT may only see vicinity activity. While conditions this afternoon may present VFR ceilings, there is high confidence MVFR conditions will be common throughout most of the valid TAF cycle with periods of IFR overnight as low levels saturate.

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Friday, March 13, 2026

Breezy southerly winds are expected today and early tonight resulting in steep seas for areas north of Cape Blanco. A stalled front to the north will move through from north to south tonight with a wind shift to northerly for all areas by Saturday morning. Conditions will become hazardous to small craft for all areas by Saturday morning and continue into Sunday morning.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-370.