textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...10/00Z TAFs

IFR ceilings continue late this afternoon along the immediate coast from Gold Beach southward to Brookings as well as over the marine waters south of Brookings and beyond 40 nm from shore across the waters. These IFR clouds will expand again overnight into Sunday morning across all of the waters, along the coast and into the coastal valleys.

Farther inland, VFR prevails with some high clouds drifting by at times. There's a decent chance (40%) of MVFR ceilings developing around Roseburg early Sunday morning, lasting for a few hours around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected through Sunday afternoon. -Spilde/DW

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, May 9, 2026

Sub-advisory conditions continue through tonight. A thermal trough develops Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing increasing north winds and wind driven steep seas south of Cape Blanco through Monday. Gusty north winds and steep seas are expected to expand north of Cape Blanco on Monday before subsiding again late Monday night into Tuesday. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 212 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026/

DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge lingering over northern California and southern Oregon will be influencing temperatures through today. Daytime highs along the coast look to be in the high 60s to low 70s. West side valleys will generally see highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, while valleys and basins to the east will reach the low 80s.

A passing dry front will bring some relief to areas west of the Cascades on Sunday. The coast will cool to the mid to high 60s, while most west side valleys will drop into the 70s. The Scott and Shasta valleys may stay a little warmer, depending on the timing of this weak front's movement. Areas to the east will warm as the shortwave ridge moves eastward, with highs in the mid to high 80s for low-lying areas.

A uniform upper ridge develops on Monday and Tuesday, bringing above seasonal warmth across the entire CWA. Coastal areas will be about 10 degrees above normal, with clearer skies on Monday allowing for a few extra degrees of warming. Onshore flow on Tuesday looks to allow for some marine clouds that will bring cooler coastal temperatures. Inland temperatures look to stay 15 to 20 degrees above normal on both Monday and Tuesday. West side valleys are forecast to be in the mid 80s to low 90s, with low to high 80s to the east.

An approaching cutoff low will influence midweek conditions, but with some uncertainty in the details. The first effects may be on Tuesday afternoon and evening, when southerly flow around the cutoff could bring gusty winds into the Shasta Valley, the southern Rogue Valley, and over the east side. These winds may reach Advisory speeds in the Shasta Valley (50-60% chances), but are unlikely to do so in other areas (10-20% chances over terrain in Modoc and southern Lake/Klamath counties). Uncertainty in the timing and position of the low is affecting confidence in other areas. ECMWF deterministic imagery brings the cutoff over the CWA on Wednesday morning, which limits daytime heating and makes thunderstorms less likely while rain showers are more likely. GFS imagery moves the cutoff farther south and arrives later on Wednesday, which is more favorable for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Forecast daytime highs also reflect this uncertainty. NBM probabilistic guidance has an interquartile range (equal 25% chances) of Medford's high being between 75 and 92 degrees.

Beyond the cutoff, there's good model agreement in a cooling trend from Thursday through Saturday. By Saturday, daytime highs may dip just below seasonal norms. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.