textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers are likely Thurs evening through Friday with isolated thunderstorm possible along and west of the Cascades

* The front Thurs/Fri will be mostly dry east of the Cascades, but will produce breezy winds

* Elevated fire weather concerns will exists on Thursday for breezy winds and low RH values for eastside areas

* Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are then expected through the weekend

DISCUSSION

The forecast area is now under mostly zonal flow which will lead to generally quiet weather. By Thursday, the upper flow becomes more southwesterly as a trough develops over the Pacific. Showers are likely over westside areas, but light rainfall could occur for some eastside areas. We may also have a few isolated thunderstorms, but instability is very meager which doesn't lead to high confidence. However, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder with Friday having the "better" chances for this to come to fruition. The probability for 0.25" of rainfall over 48 hours ranges from 10% to 90% for westside areas, with the chances highest along/near the coast and gradually decreasing as you go east/inland. Official amounts generally range from about 0.05" to around 0.75" over roughly 36-48 hours. Highest amounts along/near the coast and northern parts of Douglas County. Eastside areas could see around a trace to around 0.05" of rainfall. It will also be breezy for eastside areas as the trough passes through the region with Friday having slightly more enhanced breezes as the trough axis passes over the forecast area.

Thereafter, temperatures drop Friday and through the weekend as the trough pushes eastward. For example, Medford may only reach the upper 60s for a high on Friday with temperatures struggling to reach the 70s through the weekend for lower elevations/warmer locations. In other words, expecting a noticeable cool down (below normal temperatures) through the weekend.

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

Small patches of low ceilings have developed along/near the coast which has brought IFR conditions to KOTH. Satellite does show a very small area developing in the Umpqua basin, but confidence was not high enough to include KRBG at this time. This means inland TAF sites should remain in VFR throughout this cycle with high clouds increasing throughout the day.

MARINE...Updated 400 AM PDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep seas will continue through this evening for areas south of Cape Blanco. Conditions briefly improve Thursday morning, but a frontal system arrives Thursday afternoon into Friday, with potentially strong south winds and steep to very steep seas. North winds return with a thermal trough later Friday through Saturday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Before the shower activity begins on Thursday, conditions will be breezy for eastside areas with low RH through the afternoon hours. This means we will have a window where elevated fire weather concerns will exist on Thursday. The window is short, and temperatures really drop off as the system comes through, so not expecting any warnings at this time. Through peak heating, RH values will drop down from the lower teens to low 20 percent range. This combined with wind speeds around 15-20 mph and gusts around 25-30 mph will lead to at least some concern for fire weather. There is a small chance for light rainfall over eastside areas, but by far and large most of the shower activity will remain over westside areas. The other tricky part would be if one or two thunderstorms manage to develop on the eastside which could also bring a threat of lightning. This is a lower end chance given the fact rain chances in general are very low for eastside areas, but its not a zero percent chance. Will headline the threat of breezy wind and low RH for eastside areas on Thursday to highlight this threat.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.