textproduct: Medford

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

The weather will be quiet with little impact as dry and stable conditions persist this week. With near unanimous agreement across the model suites, forecast confidence is high through Friday with upper level ridging gradually building into our area from the west. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through Wednesday, then build slightly eastward for additional warming on Thursday and Friday, when daytime highs expected to be around 10 or 15 degrees above normal for mid to late May.

Slight cooling is possible next weekend or early next week, with a trough expected to move into western Canada. The majority of ensemble members keep the moisture associated with a couple of cold fronts well north of our area, but the second front around Memorial Day could be strong enough and near enough for a marine push and chance of showers for Coos and Douglas counties northward.

AVIATION...18/12Z TAFs

Some marine stratus is forming near Cape Blanco this evening and the models have some of that spreading into Roseburg overnight. The boundary layer in some of the models do hint at stratus forming in the Umpqua Basin overnight with IFR ceilings developing for a few hours. Otherwise, those should clear out as we mix out into the day. VFR will prevail in all other areas for the next 24 hours.

MARINE...Updated 1200 AM PDT Monday, May 18, 2026

A thermal trough will bring a typical pattern of gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas over the coastal waters much of this week. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through this stretch, very steep seas of 10- 12 ft are most likely south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Ensembles indicate winds will strengthen Wednesday into Thursday with a potential (50-70% chance) for gales across portions of the southern waters (especially from around Gold Beach south).

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370.

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