textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Daytime trend higher today and Tuesday, bringing temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms across the area. These temperatures present Moderate to perhaps some areas of major HeatRisk.

* Changes to the surface wind pattern should bring smoke from area wildfires over the area.

* Cooling is possible to end the week and into the weekend.

* Increased fire weather threat over the next few days mainly west of the Cascades.

* Thunderstorm signals continue to be absent through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

A thermal trough has developed over the region and the Chetco effect has pushed Brookings into the lower 90's this afternoon. The warmest spot in our forecast area is still Somes Bar in south western Siskiyou County with a high of 97 as of writing this AFD. Overall, temperatures will continue to warm up under this thermal trough this afternoon.

As for winds, we observed gusts to 49 mph along the south western coast just above Brookings earlier this morning. Those winds have died down over the late morning and early afternoon, although we should see gusts to 25 mph over most of the forecast area this afternoon. Northerly winds should also bring in smoke form the active fires to our north in Central Oregon and Washington. The fires are indeed far away, although model guidance is really showing smoke concentrations increasing this afternoon and yet again on Tuesday.

Once we move into Tuesday, high temperatures will trend even higher into the mid 100s over our populated areas west of the Cascades. There are also some 110s in the Klamath River Valley in Siskiyou County with Happy Camp expected to reach 110 with 113 in Somes Bar. As a result of this warm up, most areas will reach moderate HeatRisk, which impacts those sensitive to heat and without access to cooling facilities. There are some pockets of high/major impact in the heat risk graphics, so that will be something to monitor. However, we'll stay with a heat advisory over an extreme heat warning even if some high/major pixels start popping up.

By Wednesday, high temperatures will change very little with lows in the mid 60's within many valleys west of the Cascades. Medford is now expected to set a new high temperature record of 107 breaking the old record of 106 Wednesday. That is the sole record at risk for this mini heat wave in our area. In addition, we did consider issuing a heat advisory east of the Cascades Tuesday into Wednesday, although the overnight lows should fall into the lower 50's if not upper 40's in some places. The cooler lows will limit the threat of heat illness.

There are also some questions on when this heat wave will end. Model guidance is starting to cooling things a bit on Thursday with onshore flow and models moving the ridge to the east. They also show a short wave approach the coast. Past experiences have shown models can be too quick on ending these heat waves. Thursday could still be as hot as Tuesday and Wednesday.

Guidance is still pretty mixed heading into this weekend, although a small group of models show a progressive pattern with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. This could result in some cooler weather for the area by the weekend into next week.

-Smith

AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs

VFR will persist across northern Oregon and far northern California through the next 24 hours. A thermal trough will bring gusty winds along the Oregon coast and into the Umpqua Valley this afternoon and evening before winds ease overnight. Overall flow has shifted to the east, allowing wildfire smoke to infiltrate into the area beginning this afternoon, which may periodically impact visibilities at area terminals for much of this week. -TAD/BPN

MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT Monday, August 3, 2026

Gusty northerly winds continue across area waters today before the winds move slightly lower by this evening. Wind wave and fresh swell will keep the waters south of Cape Blanco hazardous to most crafts tonight into Tuesday, especially as one moves beyond 10 nm or shore. Eventually, seas lower a bit, although they'll still remain hazardous to smaller crafts during Wednesday. Weaker north winds will continue on Thursday with wave heights falling to around 5 and 6 feet. -Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ616-617-620>623.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ023-024-026.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ280.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.