textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation section

AVIATION...25/00Z TAFs

Gusty northerly winds will be seen near the coast before weakening this evening. VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period, with a few exceptions. Probabilities for ceilings of <3kft near the coast is near 35-45%, so have added a scattered prob, and this would most likely be seen between 11-14 Z. Low clouds could develop in west side locations including the Umpqua Basin (Roseburg), mainly between 11-16Z. The 06Z TAF will have more information on low ceiling development. - Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 146 PM PDT Fri Apr 24 2026/

KEY MESSAGES... -Slightly cooler weather is expected this weekend (and into Mon) with isolated to scattered showers from the Cascades eastward. -Isolated pm/eve thunderstorms are also possible, but primarily across NorCal (Mt Shasta region eastward). -Showers chances are lower west of Cascades, but can't rule one out here or there Sun/Mon, especially higher terrain. -Activity diminishes in coverage and shifts eastward Tue/Wed. -Warming trend again Wed-Thu.

DISCUSSION...The forecast area is currently wedged in between weak low pressure off the California coast and a deeper low situated over southern Canada (Saskatchewan). Meanwhile, a strong elongated upper ridge extends over the eastern Pacific into NW British Columbia. The upper ridge is effectively blocking any strong Pacific systems from reaching the West Coast. So, we'll continue to be impacted by mostly minor disturbances over the next few days.

One such disturbance is coming southward into the PacNW (on the back side of the deep southern Canada low). This will produce an area of convergence as moisture advects northward into northern California from the weak low offshore. Right now, moisture is limited, so not much is going on. But satellite imagery does show some cumulus developing in the mountains of northern California (particularly the Sierra, but also along the Northern Coast Ranges). It isn't out of the question isolated showers pop up in Trinity County abutting southern Siskiyou County this evening, then move off to the east across SE Siskiyou into southern Modoc County overnight. Probabilities of precipitation in these areas are in the 10-15% range, so not too likely.

As the energy to the north continues to dig southward and moisture increases from the south, showers become more likely (50-70% chance) and expand across NorCal (again mainly from eastern Siskiyou County across Modoc) Saturday afternoon/evening. These may extend into portions of south-central Oregon, including near Lakeview, but probably remain south and east of Klamath Falls. Hi-res guidance indicates the best instability (~150-250 J/KG MUCAPE) developing near Mt Shasta and extending off to the ENE to around Alturas. These areas stand a slight chance (15-25%) of thunderstorms. QPF with these showers/storms looks to be mostly confined to areas south and due east of Mt. Shasta, where the probability of >0.25" amounts is around 40-60%. West of the Cascades, moisture is still limited, so Saturday should be dry there. Compared to the last couple of days, temperatures this weekend should be a bit cooler, but still seasonable (highs 65-70F for Medford). Snow levels mostly >6000 feet Saturday drop to 4000-5000 feet by Sunday morning, but accumulating snow will be minimal and confined to the higher terrain. Still expect some showers out there Sunday afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening, but these will be focused in the higher terrain (and again, mostly from the Cascades eastward). We can't completely rule out a shower here or there over the west side, but these shouldn't cause any significant disruptions to late weekend/early next week plans.

The trough axis shifts eastward Monday night, with shower chances diminishing area wide on Tuesday. With upper ridging move in Wed, this should set up a warming trend mid-late next week. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Friday, April 24, 2026...High pressure offshore and a low pressure trough along the coast will maintain northerly winds into Saturday. Winds will peak during the afternoon/evenings resulting in periods of advisory level winds and steep seas that will combine with a low background northwest swell. Steep seas will persist for all areas through tonight, gradually retreating west and south early Saturday, becoming focused south of Cape Blanco Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. The pattern weakens some Sunday into Monday, resulting in less steep seas and improved conditions for early next week. Steep seas could return around mid-week when there could be an uptick in northerly winds and an increasing northwest swell moves into the waters.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ370.