textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

*Today will be the coolest day for the next week for inland areas. *Significant warming and drying trend commences Monday with NE offshore winds developing beneath a thermal trough.

*Heat wave Tue-Thu (maybe also Fri) with upper 90s and 100-110F heat expected inland west side valleys and widespread 90s east of the Cascades and in NE California - moderate to major heat risk.

*Some cooling next weekend, but probably remaining above normal. *Still no significant signal for thunderstorms next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

The front that moved through yesterday has cooled things off in most areas this morning, but winds turning into the north and northeast over the coast ranges and NW California will actually allow those areas to warm up compared to yesterday. This includes coastal areas near Brookings (probably up around 80F for a high this afternoon). Most of the remainder of the area will be near or even a few degrees cooler than yesterday. We are forecasting a high of 87F here in Medford (7F below normal). Another short wave trough will swing into Washington this afternoon and move into Idaho and western Montana tonight. This should enhance NW breezes again for a few hours this afternoon and evening, but they probably won't be quite as strong as yesterday.

A strengthening thermal trough in NorCal will extend northward into SW Oregon (along the coast) tonight into Monday. This will cause a period of gusty N-NE winds over the marine waters, coast and coast range mountains (peak gusts up to 40 mph). It will also allow the air mass to dry out significantly with strong subsidence as upper ridging takes hold. Since offshore flow will be strongest Monday morning, this should allow temperatures to rise well into the 80s (maybe even low 90s) in Brookings Monday afternoon. With numerous fires burning to our north and east, guidance shows some of that wildfire smoke pushing farther to the south and west with time (due to the N-NE flow). We'll see if the smoke has any impacts farther SW in our CWA (could be as early as Monday, but more likely Tue/Wed).

Meanwhile, models had shown some uncertainty with how strong the upper ridge would be, but they are coming in line now showing the ridge amplifying along the West Coast Tue-Thu, then moving inland. This is giving us higher confidence in a several day heat wave, peaking Tue-Thu, and possibly continuing into Friday, before the ridge flattens some next weekend. Daytime highs across the area will be about 5-15F above normal for the climatologically hottest time of year. Expect highs in the upper 90s with widespread triple digit heat (100-110F) for the west side valleys south of the Umpqua Divide. Even areas east of the Cascades and in NE California will see highs of 90-100F. Model forecast 850 temperatures (a very reliable signal for daily highs) are forecast to reach 27-29C, which when mixed to the surface suggest highs of 101-106F in Medford, Grants Pass, and Ashland, and as high as around 110F in the lower Klamath and Salmon valleys of western Siskiyou County. NWS HeatRisk is showing widespread moderate impacts with areas of major impacts due to the heat, which would likely result in an advisory level event. We'll be evaluating the need for heat headlines over the next couple of shifts.

Heat waves often end here with thunderstorms. But, once again, there is very little or no signal for thunderstorms at the end of this one. Models keep the area dry, primarily due to a lack of atmospheric moisture. The air mass is so dry and models keep the monsoonal moisture bottled up around the Four Corners region. By the time Sunday/Monday roll around, guidance is showing westerly flow aloft again, which isn't conducive to convection. This is good news given how dry it will be. -Spilde

AVIATION...02/12Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for most locations. The exception will be for some areas to the N&W of the Cascades/Siskiyou mountains this morning. A marine push is resulting in patchy MVFR ceilings, but also areas of higher terrain obscuration near the Umpqua Divide. It also looks like patchy fog is forming in some of the river valleys of northern Coos and NW Douglas counties. These ceilings/fog will be quick to clear later this morning, with VFR expected by no later than 18z. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop again this afternoon, strongest along the coast where gusts to 30 kt are expected. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Sunday, August 2, 2026

Northerly winds and steep seas will persist south of Cape Blanco this morning. A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast, bringing stronger, gale force winds and very steep seas this afternoon through Monday evening south of Cape Blanco with gusty winds and steep seas spreading north of Cape Blanco. Locally very steep seas are possible late Monday afternoon and evening for the waters beyond 10 nm from shore between Cape Blanco and Charleston. North winds and steep seas should gradually ease Tuesday and Wednesday, but at least remain hazardous to small craft. Very steep seas may linger Tuesday and Wednesday for the waters beyond 10 nm from shore south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 AM PDT Sunday, August 2, 2026

A deep marine push brought cooler temperatures last night and early this morning with some clouds banked up against the Umpqua Divide. It was even deep enough to cause some clouds in unusual spots for early August (banked up against the southern Cascades/Siskiyou Mtns). Looks like some clouds also made it over the Castle Fire in eastern Douglas County. These won't last too long this morning as the air mass dries out. Another upper disturbance will swing into Washington this afternoon and into Idaho/western Montana tonight. This will bring some gusty W-NW breezes for a few hours again this afternoon/evening in the valleys west of the Cascades and also over the east side. Overall, expect winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 25 mph (maybe 30 mph in the windiest locations east of the Cascades).

A strengthening thermal trough in northern California and SW Oregon will result in a period of offshore N-NE winds for the coast ranges and mountains of western Siskiyou County tonight. As with most thermal troughs, the first night usually coincides with the strongest winds, with model 925-850 winds in the 25-30kt range. This should result in some gusty winds (25-30 mph) at night at the usual locations in vicinity of the thermal belts (perhaps gusts to 40 mph in the windiest spots). Aligning with the Chetco River, these winds will descend resulting in compressional warming/drying all the way to the coast near Brookings (FWZ 618) on Monday. Look for elevated fire risk there and into FWZ 619 with highs in the 80s, low humidity and gusty NE breezes. The N-NE breezes could also align with the Illinois Valley (FWZ 620) Monday afternoon/early evening with near critical RH. On the second night (Monday night), poor RH recoveries are expected across all of SW Oregon and northern California upper slopes/ridges. Some guidance is showing RH only recovering into the low 20s (upper teens?!) Tuesday through Thursday. It still could be breezy, but probably not as much as tonight. It goes without saying that this pattern will produce hot, dry afternoons as well Tue/Wed, so we'll be keeping an eye on the winds to see if the stronger breezes combine with the low humidity for wind/rh headlines. -Spilde/Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.