textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Radar currently shows precipitation across the area moving north with the heaviest in Curry County. As of 4 AM, most of the rain is falling west of the Cascades with the highest 12-hour totals near Curry County and at Medford at ~0.25". Areas east of the Cascades mostly have less than a tenth of an inch so far. The shower activity will continue today and will focus on Curry and southern Siskiyou counties.

Southerly winds will increase along and east of the Cascades this afternoon. Please read the detailed discussion below for more information on what else is ahead as we start the new year.

AVIATION...01/12Z TAFs

A warm front is pushing north through the area, producing areas of light precipitation, some areas of MVFR ceilings and terrain obscurations, and rising freezing levels.

Low clouds and fog with IFR/LIFR conditions in the Umpqua Basin and lower Rogue Valley near Grants Pass persist this evening, trapped under the increasing clouds aloft and a strengthening inversion. While there has been some clearing as the front approaches, full clearing of these areas is not expected until after the front passes tomorrow. By the evening, MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to return to all locations. -BPN

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Thursday, January 1, 2026

Overall, sub-advisory conditions are expected through this afternoon as seas remain swell dominated and light south winds persist. South winds trend slightly stronger tonight as a front moves into the area and seas hazardous to small craft are expected to develop. Then, a second front approaches from the west and conditions worsen late Friday morning through Friday night with gales possible across the outer waters and very steep and hazardous seas and gusty winds possible across the inner waters. Initially, gales are most likely across the waters south of Cape Blanco beyond 10 nm from shore Friday then may expand north of Cape Blanco for the waters beyond 10 nm from shore Friday evening and night. Models support winds remaining below gales across the inner waters but expect gusty, south winds and very steep seas, dominated by fresh south swell, to develop Friday night. Confidence is moderate in the strength and timing of these winds and seas on Friday and the track of this storm will be factors in which areas see the strongest winds and seas.

Saturday and Saturday night, another stronger front moves into the waters and a low pressure nears the coast. This is likely to bring a second period of gales and very steep seas, with very steep seas lingering on Sunday. Winds may be strongest with this front and seas are forecast to peak Saturday night near 18 feet, dominated by wind seas and fresh south swell. South winds persist but trend lower on Sunday and very steep seas may continue through the day. Then, late Sunday night into Monday, models support steep seas with a mix of northwest swell and lingering fresh south swell.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 405 PM PST Wed Dec 31 2025/

DISCUSSION...From tonight into early next week, our area will be affected by a series of disturbances rotating around a broad, slowly east- northeastward moving upper level trough.

The Air Stagnation Advisory has very recently been allowed to expire, with better mixing of the air mass due to a warm front lifting northward this evening. It will bring cloudy skies and increasing light rain chances overnight with snow levels above 8000 feet. Another effect is that some areas, especially in Josephine, Douglas, and western Siskiyou County will have very little cooling or even barely warmer low temperatures on Thursday in comparison to today's high temperatures.

Our area will be in the warm sector Thursday, then the associated weak cold front will follow late Thursday night. This will bring light to locally breezy (in the Shasta Valley and eastside) southerly winds with light rain likely.

Our area looks to be between disturbances on Friday, though with the potential for moist southerly flow to wring out some light upslope rain for southern Siskiyou County, and increasing southerly winds for the Shasta Valley and eastside. A High Wind Watch for the Shasta Valley /PDXNPWMFR/ has been extended, now in effect from late Friday morning through Saturday evening. This is due to south winds that are likely to be either on the high end of Advisory or low end of Warning strength from Friday into early Saturday morning. The NBM shows a 40% probability of reaching 60 mph gusts in the Shasta Valley, which is a very slight decrease in comparison with yesterday's 12Z model run.

A brief break between disturbances should bring a slight decrease in speeds later Saturday morning, before winds ramp back up to around their previous peak of strength for Saturday afternoon and evening. South to southwest winds will also be strong at the coast, over the higher terrain, and east side, with the noteworthy potential of reaching Advisory strength at least in the Silver Lake to Summer Lake area of Lake County.

Meantime, both the Friday night and Saturday into Saturday night disturbances, as well as a third low pressure system Sunday into Sunday night will support moderate to heavy precipitation for the coast, southern Josephine, and western and southern Siskiyou counties. Nuisance flooding of urban areas and creeks and streams is possible in those areas with 3 to 7 inches of rain in total forecast. Amounts will be lighter elsewhere, mainly up to an inch.

A Winter Storm Watch /PDXWSWMFR/ for Siskiyou County above 5000 feet remains in effect, but has been shifted forward by 6 hours. It is now in effect from late Friday evening through Sunday evening. Snow levels will be around 6500 feet late Friday falling to around 5500 feet Saturday and around 4500 feet Sunday. 1 to 3 feet of snow are still forecast, with highest amounts on Mt. Shasta. Late Sunday into Sunday night, snow levels may drop down to Snowman Summit. Meantime, the southerly flow direction will not be favorable for the Cascades. But, they may receive a few to several inches of snow.

Model confidence drops beyond Sunday, with differences in the characteristics and positioning of the waves in a splitting flow aloft. The highest probability Monday through Tuesday is for impactful weather to continue well to the south of our area, with lighter wrap-around precipitation having the highest probability of continuing in southern Siskiyou County.

By Wednesday, a colder trough will be moving east-southeast from the Gulf of Alaska with an associated cold front. Less than half of GEFS model members have it arriving in our area before Thursday, with a smaller minority holding it off until Friday. When it does arrive, snow levels will at least be modestly lower with this system and the highest probability of precipitation will be for the coast and Douglas County northward.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for CAZ080-082-083.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 10 PM Friday to 7 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350- 356.

Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM PST Sunday for PZZ370- 376.