textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...22/18Z TAFS

The rain band associated with a frontal system pushing inland to around the Rogue Valley this morning brought a wind shift to west at Medford in the last hour or so. Even so, winds aloft are still fairly strong from the south, so low level wind shear (LLWS) remains a concern, not only at Medford, but also at other terminals today. With some vertical mixing expected today and the frontal band more/less stalling/weakening overhead, we expect the south winds to resurface with wind gusts (possibly close to 35 kt) that could impact both MFR and LMT. As such, we issued airport weather warnings for both terminals lasting through 01-02Z. Winds have eased back at North Bend and Roseburg for the time being and we expect rain to persist in those locations today into tonight. Ceilings are mostly VFR, but could temporarily lower to MVFR during heavier rain. LLWS will become a concern again for coastal locations and at Roseburg this evening into Monday morning as the front wags back offshore. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will accompany the front as it moves back onshore late Monday into Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 405 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026/

DISCUSSION...Overall, the going forecast is on track. The strongest front in the series, at least in terms of winds, continues to affect the region this morning as it's associated surface low moves northward along 130 W and deepens further through the morning. Winds are peaking this morning as a strong front will continue pushing onshore through around sunrise. Winds are currently gusting to 60 mph along the coast south of Cape Blanco, with gusts of 45-55 mph across the higher terrain as well as the Shasta Valley and southern end of the Rogue Valley. It's been fairly windy across southern Oregon and northern California over the last 24 hours or so, and even the more sheltered valleys saw some windy conditions with gusts of at least 25-35 mph common across the region. Strong winds will continue through the morning hours as this front moves inland. Winds gradually ease from west to east today, remaining gusty in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades through this evening. A variety of wind headlines are in place for these strong winds, and details can be found at NPWMFR.

This front will also bring a round of moderate to heavy precipitation this morning and afternoon, heaviest along/west of the I-5 corridor and into the Douglas County Foothills. Upslope flow will also bring some heavy rain to the Mt Shasta City region through this afternoon. Snow levels are hovering around 4000-4500 ft ahead of this front, but will rise to around 5000-6000 ft by this afternoon. Before snow levels rise, there will be a period of moderate snowfall for the mountain of Siskiyou County above 4500 ft, and a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for this through this afternoon.

By this afternoon, the front loses it's upper level support as the associated low pressure retrogrades west/northwestward some. As this happens, the front will get hung up along the coastal ranges and weaken later today. This will limit the inland extent of heavy precipitation. In fact, there's a sharp gradient where precipitation amounts drop off significantly that lies along a line roughly along the Rogue/Shasta/Scott Valleys and points eastward. Many locations east of the Cascades will likely miss out altogether on measurable precipitation with this front, and with the strong southerly flow aloft, it's no surprise that precipitation amounts drop off sharply for those north/south oriented valleys west of the Cascades where downsloping will limit precipitation amounts.

Beyond this afternoon, we'll be in a relative break between systems. The large trough responsible for our current weather will remain offshore, spinning well to our west. The current front will remain hung up along the coast, so periods of moderate precipitation will continue there. For inland areas, precipitation chances drop off, lowering to 40-60% west of the Cascades and 10-30% east of the Cascades, but even then, any precipitation amounts will be fairly light for inland areas. Breezy conditions continue Sunday night into Monday, then ramp up some Monday afternoon into Tuesday (though considerably weaker compared to the ongoing event) as an atmospheric river arrives in the region late Monday into Tuesday.

As the upper level trough closes off and retreats towards Hawaii, a classic Pineapple Express sets up, with a moisture plume from near Hawaii riding the southwest flow directly into southern Oregon and northern California late Monday night into Tuesday. As the current storm looks to be less of a precipitation maker and more of a wind producer, the event on Tuesday will be the opposite, with less wind but potentially much more rain. And with this moisture coming from a tropical source, snow levels will be much higher (7000-8000 ft), so snow will not be a concern, but rain and snow melt will be. We will need to closely monitor area rivers and streams for quick rises and potential flooding concerns.

Once this system exits Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, upper level ridging returns to the area, with dry and warmer conditions expected for the remainder of the week (despite the NBM and therefore the official forecast keeping rain chances ongoing throughout the week). Area valleys, however, will likely see strong inversions with fog and low clouds overnight and into the mornings, especially west of the Cascades.

AVIATION...22/12Z TAFS...Strong south to southeast winds and low level wind shear (LLWS) will be the primary impacts to aviation through much of the TAF period. A strong front is pushing onshore this morning, bringing moderate to heavy rain along and west of the I-5 corridor. Overall, conditions remain VFR with this front, but could temporarily lower to MVFR during heavier rain. This front won't make much inland progress beyond the I-5 corridor as it stalls later this afternoon.

Meanwhile, strong winds are more widespread and the greater hazard today. Gusty winds will continue to surface through the afternoon with gusts of 25-35 mph common across the region with gusts 35-45 mph in the Shasta Valley, and possibly up to 40 mph in the Klamath Basin. LLWS will remain a concern through the TAF period for coastal locations as the front remains stalled there through tonight. LLWS concerns will ease for inland locations around 18-20z as the front loses upper level support and stronger winds aloft continue to surface.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, February 22, 2026...A strong front is passing through the area waters this morning, bringing strong gales and storm force south winds (gusts 50-60 kt). Very high and dangerous wind driven seas will continue through the morning hours, peaking around 22 to 28 ft across the outer waters and around 18 to 25 ft for the inner waters. This will make for treacherous bar crossings through early Sunday. Winds ease to gales after the front moves onshore around sunrise, and gradually ease further through the afternoon though remaining gusty and at advisory levels into Tuesday. Seas will also lower some this afternoon as winds ease, but will remain high and very steep through this evening. Very steep and elevated seas also persist into Tuesday as another front passes through the region Monday into Tuesday. There is a possibility of gales Monday into Monday night. Improved conditions are likely from Tuesday night into Friday.

HYDROLOGY...A moderate atmospheric river will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall today into early next week. The first frontal system pushing through the region this morning, with additional waves of precipitation continuing along the coast and into the coastal ranges tonight through Monday. A Pineapple Express (atmospheric river) will move into the region late Monday afternoon, then push inland Monday night into Tuesday. Preliminary estimates are showing widespread amounts of 4 to 6 inches along the coast with locally 8 inches in the favored coast ranges of Curry County and 1 to 3 inches for areas from the Cascades westward. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the Mount Shasta region and also other favored areas of western Siskiyou County.

Small streams and creeks are likely to rise rapidly during this event with nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways during periods of heavy rain. Significant rises on main stem rivers and flashier creeks are also expected. Given that rivers are still running fairly low for this time of year, river flooding potential is a bit lower than usual. While the most recent forecasts maintain that mainstem rivers will remain below flood stage, there are some that are forecast to approach bankfull (Coquille Basin, Deer Creek at Roseburg). Additionally, with the warm rain expected Monday night into Tuesday and snow levels well above 7000 feet, this leads to a concern for heavy rain to combine with snowmelt, which could lead to even higher rises.

While the exact scenario for the heavy rainfall and potential flooding remains uncertain, we will continue to monitor the forecasts and update accordingly. Flood Watches may be issued by the National Weather Service if this situation worsens.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, February 22, 2026...Storm force winds are resulting in hazardous beach conditions that will persist through this morning. Large breaking wave heights of 23 to 27 ft are expected primarily along the beaches and shorelines of Curry County with south and southwest facing beaches being the most impacted. These large breaking waves could inundate beaches and low lying shorelines. Beach erosion is possible and exposed infrastructure may be damaged. If you have plans to visit area beaches this morning, stay away from the surf zone and off of jetties. Area beaches will be hazardous due to dangerous surf conditions.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ026-030-031.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ080- 082-083.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.