textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Mid- and high-level clouds are the only activity expected across northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. The upper pattern has some upper ridging nudging into the area, keeping temperatures above seasonal norms but below impactful levels. With the zonal/slight ridging pattern continuing in to Monday, similar weather is expected across the area. Some east side basins could see a few additional degrees of warming depending on how the upper ridge develops.

On Tuesday, a warm front looks to move over the ridge and across the area. Rainfall is expected across Coos, Curry, and Douglas counties. Low-lying coastal areas 0.5 to 0.66 inches of rainfall from Tuesday morning into early Wednesday morning. Amounts over Curry County terrain could approach an inch. Parts of the Umpqua Valley as well as Cascades foothills and terrain north of Lake of the Woods could see between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. Josephine County, Jackson County foothills, and western Siskiyou County may also see light rainfall. Other areas will generally stay dry. With snow levels around 9000 feet that only fall once the precipitation is mostly dissipated, winter impacts are not expected.

The warm front will also bring gusty winds over terrain through Tuesday, with the strongest gusts in the afternoon and evening. This is particularly true east of the Cascades. Periods of Advisory-level gusts are possible over terrain in Lake County (Especially Winter Rim) and over the Warner Mountains in Modoc County. The consistency of these gusts is sill lacking, so a Wind Advisory will not be included in this afternoon's update. If additional information adds confidence, a product for the areas discussed above is possible.

Fire weather concerns remain for areas east of the Cascades, although the conditions for a Red Flag Warning are not fully met in the forecast. For today and Monday, relative humidity values to the east remain in the 15-25% range while normal diurnal winds are present. Winds pick up on Tuesday, but the front will bring enough moisture to somewhat improve daytime RH values (25-35%).

There's general agreement in long-term models that the upper ridge will strengthen and its axis will move east. This will result in warm and dry conditions across the area behind the warm front. With the axis to the east, daytime highs look to avoid hazardous ranges. Minimum RH values east of the Cascades are forecast to return to the mid-teens to end the week and into the weekend, but with normal winds continuing. There's some agreement on a more active pattern setting up some time early next week, but no consistent signals to help identify that pattern at this point. -TAD

AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs

Roseburg and the Umpqua Basin has MVFR ceilings this morning, and that will lift by the early afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for all terminals throughout the valid TAF period with Roseburg joining last. Expect afternoon breezes in a typical diurnal fashion with speeds calming back down after sunset. Have added low VFR ceilings to North Bend Monday morning, but otherwise VFR conditions prevail. -Guerrero/Hermansen

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, March 22, 2026

A thermal trough continues to strengthen today, bringing gusty north winds. A Hazardous Seas Warning is in effect for the waters from Cape Blanco southward with small craft advisory conditions north of Cape Blanco through early Monday morning. Winds may briefly rise to gales this afternoon and early evening for areas south of Gold Beach.

Conditions briefly improve Monday afternoon and evening. Southerly winds strengthen as a cold front passes. Gales are possible in northern waters Tuesday morning into the evening, and a Gale Watch has been issued. Small craft conditions are likely in southern waters Tuesday afternoon. -Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for PZZ350-370.