textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

A weakening front will move through the area this morning bringing a few showers west of the Cascades to start, then it will be dry shortly after daybreak though the rest of the day.

Dry weather is likely tonight and there should be sufficient clearing for fog and low clouds to form in the interior westside valleys later this evening and lasting into most of Tuesday morning.

A warm front will move north of the area Tuesday. The best chance for precipitation will be to the north. However, it will be a close call over the northwest part of the area. Therefore could not rule out intermittent light rain later Tuesday morning and afternoon.

A nearly stationary front will linger north of our forecast area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. At the same time, a weak dirty ridge will move into the area. This weak ridge will be enough to keep the front north of the area. Even though we have a chance of precip over the northwest part of the forecast area during this time, odds are it will remain dry in these areas as well.

It wont' be until Thanksgiving Day when a front is expected to move into the area and actually bring a chance of precipitation, mainly along and west of the Cascades

After Thursday, the general consensus among the operational models and ensembles show an upper trough dropping in from the north as an upper ridge builds in the Gulf of Alaska. If nothing else, this could usher in a colder air mass late in the week into next weekend. The question will be the trajectory of the upper trough. The operational models show varying solutions, especially Friday, but come into better agreement next weekend. The ECMWF, GFS ensemble means and clusters show similar solutions with the upper trough dropping south over land with little or no over water trajectory. This solution typically leads to dry and colder weather. This is still a ways out, therefore details could change in the coming days, so stay tuned for the latest updates. -Petrucelli

AVIATION...24/12z TAFs

A few isolated showers remain, but the atmosphere is becoming stable and this along with ample low level moisture will result in low clouds and fog formation towards daybreak for the interior westside valleys, including the Roseburg, Medford and Merlin terminals that could last beyond 18z. Brief improvement to VFR expected for the afternoon into early evening, followed by low clouds and fog for the interior westside valleys again including Roseburg and Medford terminals. The timing of when the lower conditions develop tonight could be earlier than whats in the TAF's so watch for updates. -Petrucelli

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Monday, November 24, 2025

Steep seas will subside into early this morning, with relatively calmer conditions expected the rest of today into Tuesday morning. A warm front will move north of the waters Tuesday afternoon with a slight uptick in south winds, but they are expected to remain below Advisory levels.

Hazardous conditions are likely to return around Thanksgiving--as early as Wednesday night--thanks to a combination of a fresh swell and wind-driven seas. Hazardous seas may come to fruition over northern waters with advisory level steep seas elsewhere.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF

Updated 200 AM PST Monday, November 23, 2025...A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for sneaker waves that can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches into early this morning. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST early this morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.