textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Key Points:

* Minor/low impacts continue the next several days - Well above normal temperatures start tomorrow - Temperatures closer to normal through early next week

* No strong signal for precipitation until early next week - Small indications for isolated showers this weekend - Mainly for northern California - Could have isolated thunder if anything develops

* Elevated fire weather concerns this week - Combination of dry, breezy, and warm temperatures - Fuels fortunately keeping the overall fire threat low/moderate

Further Details:

A ridge of high pressure continues its position over the Pacific Ocean through the next several days. As a result, an overall dry and stable airmass is likely to persist through Friday night/Saturday morning. However, this does start to break down/move west by Saturday. This will allow for more of a zonal flow to set up over the PacNW with weak embedded PVA. There is at least some semblance of a potential for convection starting Saturday afternoon as we reach convective temperatures. Upper level features are less than desirable for high confidence, but there is enough overlap of parameters to warrant at least a mention of showers/thunderstorms. CAMs are indicating this potential as well Saturday afternoon for northern California and eastside areas. Currently, the NBM has no mention of this potential (<10%), and therefore the current forecast does not reflect this potential. As CAMs start to get weighted into the NBM, we may see these chances reflected in PoPs and subsequent forecast.

With the ridge of high pressure displaced out of the region, a trough is progged to develop and dig south over the west coast early next week. This is a much stronger signal for precipitation across our entire foreacst area than we have seen in well over a week (outside of isolated rainfall). That said, there are discrepancies between global models on the timing, overall height fields, and hence coverage of precipitation chances. The takeaway here is there is at least a better signal for widespread precipitation than we have seen in recent weeks. Confidence is increasing for precipitation between Monday and Wednesday but details are still unclear.

As we maintain the dry airmass and breezy afternoons, there will be at least an elevated threat for fire weather conditions each day. However, fuel conditions per fire agencies reveal the overall fire weather threat will remain low to moderate. Given the low RH values each afternoon and breezy winds, people should exercise caution with any outdoor activities that could cause sparks or flames. Bottom line is that fire season was declared early this year, so these precautionary actions should already be in place, but its especially important when we have these elevated concerns.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

VFR prevails area wide currently. Aside from gusty N-NW winds closer to the coast (20-30 kt), excellent flying conditions will continue this afternoon/evening. Then, expect marine low clouds/fog to develop along the coast north of Cape Blanco and also the coastal valleys (Coquille, Umpqua). This will result in IFR/MVFR ceilings through early Thursday morning at North Bend. Some clouds could also form in the Umpqua Basin around Roseburg, but these will be patchy and may avoid the terminal. Right now, probability of an MVFR ceiling at Roseburg is 15-20%. For Medford and Klamath Falls (and elsewhere), expect VFR to prevail for the next 24 hours.

-Spilde

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, May 20, 2026

A thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas over the coastal waters through Friday night. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through this stretch, very steep seas of 10-13 ft are most likely south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Gale force gusts (~40 kt) are possible across portions of the southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south.

The pattern will ease some this weekend as an upper trough pushes in from the NW. This should bring lighter winds and lower seas (still at least Small Craft Advisory), especially by Sunday. Could be a brief break Sunday night, but models continue to show another trough moving through on Monday (Memorial Day). The strength and timing of this trough are still somewhat uncertain, but it could bring periods of rain, gusty W winds that shift back to N and steep seas. This one should be followed by a larger WNW swell.

-Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.