textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...28/00Z TAFs

Gusty north winds of up to 30 kt will linger at the coast for the remainder of the evening, through around 04Z. VFR will prevail for most sites through the TAF period.

The exception is the Umpqua Basin, near Roseburg, as patchy stratus or fog is once again possible Saturday morning between 12-16Z, and this could bring IFR conditions. VFR conditions are in the forecast for Roseburg during this time with a ceiling not likely to reach the terminal as this morning's coverage was very limited.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 205 PM PDT Fri Mar 27 2026/

DISCUSSION...A thermal trough remains in place today with some offshore winds and some very dry air in the lower levels. Temperatures will trend notably warmer today as the thermal trough moves inland with highs in the mid to upper 70's within valleys west of the Cascades and upper 60's along the southern Oregon coastline near Brookings and Gold Beach. The thermal trough moves further inland on Saturday (although a weaker one quickly reforms farther to the south), with temperatures only a few degrees cooler. Parts of the coast could observe cloud cover with periods of onshore flow, especially north of Cape Blanco.

Sunday night through Tuesday is beginning to come more into focus, and it appears there will be a somewhat complex interaction occuring over southern Oregon and far northern California. An upper level trough will attempt to push into the region Sunday night, but will meet strong resistance in the ridge and thermal trough/east flow already in place over California. As a result, only the trailing edge of the front will pass through our area, with little in the way of precipitation, likely as a narrow line of very light precipitation that moves quickly through the region and exits to the east by Monday morning. Temperatures, however, will fall sharply behind the front, with snow levels lowering from 4000 ft to around 1000 ft. With moisture cut off by the southern ridge, there is likely to be very very little to no precipitation behind the front, so these lower snow levels will not actually amount to much more than flurries at best.

With the cold air filtering into inland areas, the thermal trough along the south coast and California will strengthen, drying the area out briefly Monday afternoon before a warm front approaches the area Tuesday. Again, precipitation amounts will be low, while temperatures warm up for the day and snow levels jump back up a few thousand feet.

Wednesday into Thursday will be the day of greatest concern. The models are showing a deep low approaching the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska, and with it, a potent surface low that could make its way onshore as far south as the mouth of the Columbia River, or as far north as southern British Columbia. While a few ensemble members show this low deepening as it approaches, the majority show it maintaining or slightly filling. The farther south, and the more the low deepens, the stronger the wind concerns will be for southern Oregon and northern California, but the details on that remain far from certain.

Whichever scenario plays out, it will be windy and wet Wednesday into Thursday with plenty of rain and mountain snow (roughly above 3000-4000 ft), and that is supported by nearly all members of the various suites. As such, we will be keeping a close eye on this system as it gets closer in time. Those who may be impacted by stronger winds, particularly along the coast, in the Shasta and Scott valleys, the southern Rogue Valley, and across the East Side, and those who may be travelling over higher terrain, such as the Cascade passes and the East Side, should also keep a close eye on the forecast, and begin to make alternate plans or prepare for this uncommonly strong, at least for so far this season, event.

On the back side of this event, showers and cooler weather are expected to finish out the week as the broad upper level trough passes overhead. There are increasing indications that ridging will begin to rebuild along the West Coast, with a warming and drying trend heading into next weekend, but a not insignificant amount of guidance continues a somewhat active pattern. -BPN

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, March 27, 2026...Hazardous seas persist for areas south of Cape Blanco and farther north near Coos Bay through Saturday morning with steep seas in all other areas.

Winds ease Saturday, but seas will remain steep south of Cape Blanco. Further improvement is expected on Sunday, with a period of below advisory seas to end the weekend. Active weather is forecast to bring rain and building winds and seas Monday into the middle of next week as as stronger system moves east. Expect some larger swells during early April.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ370-376.