textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAF issuance.

AVIATION....AVIATION...09/18Z TAFs

Wildfire smoke at Klamath Falls will bring visibility reductions in haze and even some higher ceilings from the airport eastward into early this afternoon, but NW winds should bring VFR again by around 21-22Z. Once the sun sets, the inversion should redevelop and smoke will settle back in over the airport later this evening with potential for MVFR ceilings/visibility again.

Marine stratus has cleared to VFR at all but the immediate south coast late this morning. Even there, we expect enough NE wind component to clear things out for a while this afternoon. Strong, gusty north winds up to 30 kt will occur at North Bend this afternoon/evening. Expect the marine layer to return this evening with more IFR stratus/fog during the overnight into Monday morning.

Medford and Roseburg will be VFR for the next 24 hours with just some locally breezy winds this afternoon/evening (gusts to 20 kt). -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 730 AM PDT Sunday, August 9, 2026

Gusty north winds are present over area waters, with areas of gale force gusts and very steep seas south of Port Orford. Elsewhere, gusty winds and steep seas are expected. These conditions will continue into at least Monday evening but could persist through Wednesday. Winds look to ease on Thursday but unsettled seas could continue into next weekend. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 352 AM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot, dry, and breezy/windy conditions are the overall theme going forward resulting in elevated fire weather conditions

* Cooler and more widepsread seasonable temperatures start Monday but areas of triple digit highs remain over western Siskiyou County through next week

* Areas of smoke remain possible due to nearby wildfires which could bring unhealthy air quality

* Uncertainty exists but early signs pointing at thunderstorm chances increasing this weekend into early next week

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern for the next several days will be noted by high pressure over the Four Corners Region, resulting in a general southwest to zonal flow at 500mb over the forecast area through Tuesday. This pattern will continue to bring hot, dry, and breezy/windy conditions through Monday with more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday for most areas. This will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions today and tomorrow. By Tuesday night, we start to see the high over the Four Corners region slide east/southeast. At this time, a trough does develop over the west coast, and this pattern does look to remain over the west coast for several days. Not seeing any notable impacts at this time given the cooler temperatures and better overnight recoveries by mid week which should limit fire weather concerns.

There is uncertainty as we get later in the week as the upper level pattern has changed and we are not seeing the closed low over the California coast now. Instead, around Friday/Saturday, a closed low now looks to form over the Gulf of Alaska and move into the PacNW through the weekend/Monday. We will see increased chances for thunderstorms through this stretch, but at this time its tough to say with much confidence when this will likely occur. Ensembles are mixed and have precipitation through the weekend and into Monday, but many members are also dry. At this time, Saturday is looking like the best day for thunderstorms given potential MUCAPE. However, the upper level low doesn't move out of the region until Monday night/Tuesday morning. Things should become more clear over the coming days, but the main takeaway is we have a chance for thunderstorms this weekend/Monday.

Lastly, smoke will be the other factor as the diurnal wind pattern continues to spread areas of smoke across the forecast area. Smoke is very difficult to forecast with uncertainties involved in fire activity/suppression and exactly how much smoke will be introduced into the atmosphere. That said, expect areas of smoke until an airmass change occurs.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.