textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...07/06Z TAFs

A weak frontal system will maintain MVFR clouds and a few light sprinkles to far NW sections (near or just north of North Bend) into tonight. Later tonight, coastal areas could see some lower clouds toward morning, perhaps a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings. Other than patchy morning valley fog in the Umpqua Basin, VFR should prevail there and across the rest of the interior as well. A stronger front will bring breezy conditions along the coast and east of the Cascades Saturday afternoon/evening, then perhaps some light rain and lower ceilings west of the Cascades Saturday night. -Spilde/BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 219 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* High impact marine weather with gales, large seas and hazardous surf conditions expected this weekend.

* Inland, overall, mostly low impact weather conditions are expected through at least mid next week.

* A cold front late Saturday afternoon brings rainfall to the coast, then inland and mainly near and west of the Cascades Saturday night into Sunday morning.

* Chance of rain Monday, but dry weather is increasingly likely Tuesday-Wednesday.

* Next stronger front possible next Thursday/Friday.

DISCUSSION...A flat upper ridge over the Great Basin is keeping most of the area dry this afternoon. This upper ridge is causing a weak front to stall out and dissipate to our north. There have been a few light returns on radar across far NW sections of the CWA, but that's about it. Mild and mainly dry conditions exist elsewhere with some high clouds floating by at times.

The upper ridge will continue to flatten and SW flow aloft will increase on Saturday in advance of a cold front offshore. After another chilly morning, it will turn mild again in the afternoon (not quite record levels). Largely, highs will be in the 60s, but we'll also see some readings in the lower 70s. Breezy conditions will develop in portions of NorCal (including the Shasta Valley) and also east of the Cascades after the inversion breaks Saturday afternoon. Peak gusts of 30-35 mph fall short of advisory levels, but there'll be a noticeable uptick in winds compared to today. The same goes for the coast as the frontal system approaches; south winds become a bit stronger than they have been for a while, but we don't think they reach warning levels.

The cold front will move onshore Saturday evening and most areas from the coast to the Cascades will see at least a little light rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Amounts will range from just a few hundredths in the Rogue Valley to 0.20-0.50 for the coast, coast range mountains and over to the Cascade Foothills in Douglas County. Snow levels will remain high enough that we're not concerned about accumulating snow. The front will lose its upper support and will fall apart as it moves east of the Cascades Sunday afternoon. So, while there won't be any rain over there, it'll be a bit cooler. In fact, most areas will see about a 5-15F drop compared to Saturday's highs.

SW flow aloft will carry another weak frontal system in our direction on Monday (a warm front). Models are a bit at odds with respect to rainfall potential with this system. The warm advection and isentropic lifting associated with the front could trigger a little light rain, with probabilities highest once again from the Cascades westward. Current forecast keeps east side areas dry. Even if some rain does occur, amounts would be light and probably focused along the coast, coast ranges/mountains.

Models are now favoring a re-amplification of the upper ridge into the Great Basin Tuesday/Wednesday, which would keep most of the active weather offshore. In fact, we're seeing temperatures rebound again at midweek with highs well into the 60s and even low 70s (oh, and little or no rain)! This is a pattern we see a lot here in SW Oregon and norCal during transition season. Long range models have difficulty handling the interaction of the northern/southern branches of the jet and often want to bring in a parade of storms. Add to that the background of the strong El Nino favoring this kind of atmospheric response and you end up with systems deflecting well to our north and also splitting and heading to our south. We could see a system just like that next Thursday as a front approaches the coast, but becomes elongated or splits and a piece heads into California or even Baja. Ensembles do favor a stronger frontal system arriving around next Friday. Take it with a grain of salt though, because a week ago, today looked like it would be wetter and snowier in the mountains and that just hasn't happened yet. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 115 PM PST Friday, November 6, 2026...Seas will remain high and steep around 12 to 16 feet at 14 to 17 seconds through Saturday morning as westerly swell moves through the waters. Low pressure will move through the NE Pacific and onshore into British Columbia Saturday into Sunday. A cold front will bring increasing south winds Saturday, with gales in the northern waters, and a hazardous combination of swell and steep to very steep wind waves. Rain will accompany the front Saturday evening followed by a high to very high long period westerly swell Saturday night through Sunday evening. Winds will diminish during this time frame, but seas will increase to a peak of 18-23 ft with the period increasing from 12 to 17 seconds Sunday evening. Swells will gradually subside Monday. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS...Long period westerly swells moving through the coastal waters will have enough energy to produce an elevated risk of sneaker waves on SW Oregon beaches (Douglas, Coos and Curry counties) through this evening.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can knock people off their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

In addition, a high to very high swell is expected to arrive at the coast late Saturday night into Sunday. Breaker heights in the surf zone could reach 22-27 feet. We have issued a high surf advisory for this. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ021- 022.

High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350- 370.