textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

MVFR conditions are expected along/near the coast through this cycle which will impact KOTH. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected inland with the chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Of the terminals, KLMT has the higher chance of being impacted with a thunderstorm. Cannot rule out a rogue shower/storm for KMFR, but confidence was not high enough to include in this cycle. Lastly, smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire will likely bring haze/smoke to the KMFR terminal today/tonight.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 404 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm seasonable temperatures and overall dry conditions are expected this week.

* Smoke impacts from the East Evans Creek fire could result in the afternoon and evening for the Rogue Valley and to some extend eastside areas. This of course depends on fire activity.

* Thunderstorm chances peak today for mainly eastside areas and northern California, but cannot rule out some very isolated activity across both eastern Jackson and Douglas counties. Main threats are lightning and strong outflow gusts.

* Lesser chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday but nonzero

DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...

Our upper level pattern continues to maintain with high pressure to the east of the forecast area. We also have a 500mb trough off the coast from Washington/Oregon which is placing southwesterly flow over the forecast area. Ultimately, this pattern will lead to southwesterly flow aloft through at least Wednesday. Thereafter, the pattern starts to become out of phase as models differ in the handling of the cutoff low off the coast from Oregon/Washington, so there is uncertainty beyond Wednesday as models struggle with the cutoff low positioning and eastward trajectory.

For today, upper levels dynamics will be more conducive for thunderstorm development than yesterday with the upper trough edging closer to shore and a jet streak over the forecast area. CAPE is modest around a couple hundred J/kg to upwards near 500 J/kg in some cases. Any storm that forms will have the potential for strong outflow gusts around 40-45mph in addition to lightning. The lightning over dry fuels was considered for a Red Flag Warning, but confidence was not high enough for abundant lightning. Thunderstorm chances will be best over northern California and eastside areas, but cannot rule out a Rogue storm over both eastern Douglas and Jackson counties.

On Wednesday, we continua to see less CAPE and less overall moisture, so thunderstorm chances will decrease on Wednesday. However, cannot rule out an isolated storm or two through the afternoon and early evening hours for mainly eastside areas.

Beyond middle of the week, models are really struggling with the trajectory of a cutoff low, so confidence is somewhat low through the later half of the week. &&

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

Areas of LIFR will persist overnight into Tuesday morning at the coast north of Cape Blanco, and near Brookings. Improvement to VFR is expected from late morning into early evening, before LIFR returns Tuesday evening.

Inland, smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire, north of Medford, is expected to remain thickest to the east and southeast from eastern Jackson County into Klamath County. Conditions will remain VFR, but with instability developing early Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight chance to chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening over much of the area, roughly east of a line from Roseburg to Grants Pass to Happy Camp.

MARINE...Updated 330 AM PDT Tuesday, July 14, 2026...A brief period of below advisory seas is expected through early this morning. Thereafter, gusty northerly winds look to build steep seas south of Cape Blanco through tonight. North winds are expected to increase again on Friday. These thermal trough driven winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours and may result in small craft conditions through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 AM PDT Tuesday, July 14, 2026...Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across northern California and eastside areas. Some models try to bring thunderstorms over eastern parts of both Jackson and Douglas county today, but more of the guidance has the focus across eastside areas and northern California. There wasn't enough confidence to issue a Red Flag Warning for lightning because activity will likely be isolated. However, Fire Weather Zones (FWZs) 624, 625, and 285 are the most likely areas to see isolated thunderstorms today/tonight.

Warm and dry conditions will lead to at least elevated fire weather concerns through the remainder of the week with Friday leaning more toward critical conditions for northern California and Klamath/Lake counties.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.