textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion Updated.

AVIATION...05/06Z TAFs

A front is moving across the area tonight and Monday morning. Expect areas of MVFR along the coast with showers. Inland, expect widespread MVFR to develop along with local IFR and terrain obscurations. Freezing levels of 3500-4000 ft MSL are expected. Some areas west of the Cascades may see conditions lower to IFR/LIFR in low stratus Monday morning. The National Blend of Models shows a 25-35% chance for IFR/LIFR at Medford and 20-30% chance at Roseburg. Showers are expected behind the front late Monday morning and afternoon and will see gradual improvement during the day. Along the coast, expect conditions to improve to VFR by late Monday morning, except for some local MVFR ceilings which may continue along the southern Curry coast into the afternoon. Inland, expect most areas to improve to VFR in the mid to late afternoon on Monday, except for continued MVFR across portions of Northern California and east of the Cascades. MVFR/IFR is then expected to redevelop in valleys west of the Cascades Monday evening and night.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 253 PM PST Sun Jan 4 2026/

DISCUSSION...A persisting upper trough will guide weather across northern California and southern Oregon into Monday. For this evening, a weak cold front will help to push another round of light to moderate precipitation across the area. Cold air behind the front will lower snow levels to 3500-4000 feet by Monday morning. With precipitation continuing through the day Monday, additional snowfall is expected for Cascades passes and Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna tonight through Monday morning. 1 to 2 inches may reach Interstate 5 at Sikiyou Summit or between Weed and Dunsmuir as well as on Highway 89 and 97. With limited snowfall, road warmth, and lingering water on road surfaces, highway snow accumulation may be limited but slippery conditions may develop where snow showers fall.

The upper trough splits on Monday, sending a cutoff low to the south. This will bring a brief pause in activity on Tuesday morning, with slight chances of isolated showers persisting. A cold front brings afternoon showers to the coast and the Cascades, then precipitation moves inland through Wednesday and Thursday. While coastal and low-lying areas will see light to moderate activity at most, snowfall over the Cascades remains a concern through midweek. Forecast amounts remain at 8 to 16 inches between 4500 and 5500 feet, which would include Cascades passes and Willamette Pass. Accumulation could reach 16 to 24 inches over peaks and ridgelines. This amount of snow represents Advisory-level winter weather for the Cascades through much of Wednesday, but forecast snow levels have been trending upwards through recent model runs. While this doesn't change that snow over the Cascades looks to be the main impact of the midweek front, the timing and amounts could change. Snowfall is expected east of the Cascades as well, with 4 to 8 inches forecast for eastern Cascades foothills and 3 to 6 inches for east side terrain. Basin floors are expected to see an inch or less. West of the Cascades, the lowest forecast snow levels are up to 2500 feet and that's on Thursday morning when precipitation is clearing out. With this forecast, Interstate 5 at Siskiyou Summit would see an inch of snowfall at most and a few stray snow showers would be possible around the Mount Shasta region.

Behind the midweek front, expectations for a period of stable weather remain as activity trails off through Thursday and a Pacific ridge remains in deterministic imagery. Some GFS ensemble members show upper troughs briefly flattening the ridge. NBM guidance keeps coastal precipitation chances at 10-20% at the highest and single digit chances inland for Friday through Sunday. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Sunday, January 4, 2026...With the passage of the front, winds have diminished and seas will gradually lower through tonight. Improved conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday with a mix of northwest swell and lingering fresh south swell. Another front passes Tuesday with a brief period of gusty south winds and steep seas, followed by long period swell arriving Tuesday night, and building and steepening Wednesday into Thursday. -BPN

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 PM PST Sunday, January 4, 2026...Long period swell, originating from a storm along the Aleutian Islands, is forecast to arrive in the southern Oregon waters Tuesday night, then build Wednesday into Thursday. Early indications are showing the swell arriving at 3-6 feet at 20-25 seconds, which initially poses a risk for sneaker waves Tuesday night into Wednesday. Then, as the swell builds to 13-18 feet, high surf risk increases Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. It's still several days away, so we'll continue to monitor for possible beach hazard and/or high surf products. -Spilde/BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for ORZ027.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for CAZ080-082-083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.