textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will prevail most of this week

* Rain chances increase Thurs/Fri (20%-60%) with isolated thunderstorm possible (10%-20%) along and west of the Cascades

* The front Thurs/Fri will be mostly dry east of the Cascades, but will produce breezy winds

* Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are then expected through the weekend

DISCUSSION

A closed low continues to pass south/southeast of the forecast area today. As the low exits to the east, we will experience mostly zonal flow over the forecast area which will lead to generally quiet weather with very little impacts/hazards over the next couple days. By Thursday, the upper flow becomes more southwesterly as a trough develops over the Pacific. Deterministic models are in much better agreement now with good consensus through later parts of this week. Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will likely stay over westside areas, but light rainfall could occur for some eastside areas. Currently, instability is very meager, so not expecting much in the realm of thunderstorm chances, but we could see some isolated activity across the area with Friday having the relatively better chances albeit still very low based on MUCAPE values. Probabilities for rainfall are much better for westside areas. The probability for 0.25" of rainfall over 48 hours ranges from 25% to 75% for westside areas, with the chances highest along/near the coast and gradually decreasing as you go east/inland. Official amounts generally range from about a tenth of an inch to around 0.75" over roughly 36-48 hours. Highest amounts along/near the coast and northern parts of Douglas County. Eastside areas could see around a trace to around a tenth of an inch of rainfall. It will also be breezy for eastside areas as the trough passes through the region with Friday having slightly more enhanced breezes as the trough axis passes over the forecast area.

Thereafter, temperatures drop Friday and through the weekend as the trough pushes eastward. For example, Medford may only reach the upper 60s for a high on Friday with temperatures struggling to reach the 70s through the weekend for lower elevations/warmer locations. In other words, expecting a noticeable cool down (below normal temperatures) through the weekend.

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

Low clouds along/near the coast will maintain IFR conditions for KOTH through early this afternoon, but some relief is expected this afternoon that could lead to VFR conditions. There is some uncertainty for low clouds tonight for North Bend, and at this time hinted at the possibility with a scattered deck, but guidance is split on whether these lows clouds will warrant any categorical chances. At this time, will go with the VFR solution for tonight at KOTH but this might be a little aggressive, and we may need to reevaluate this in subsequent TAFs. Otherwise, KRBG could experience MVFR conditions later this morning as low clouds continue to fill in the Umpqua basin. KMFR and KLMT will likely remain in VFR through this cycle with only high clouds expected.

MARINE...Updated 400 AM PDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Gusty north winds will maintain steep seas south of Cape Blanco through this evening, except for very steep seas south of Gold Beach and within 30 nm of shore. This includes near shore winds south of Brookings becoming strong this afternoon and evening. Conditions improve slightly Wednesday and more noticeably on Thursday, before a thermal trough strengthens again on Friday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356- 376.