textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* High impact marine weather with very large and dangerous waves and surf conditions.

* Inland, low to moderate impacts from gusty winds and rainfall with today's cold front; minimal impacts from snow occuring mainly above 5000 feet. * Another front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday with lower snow levels; winter weather impacts likely for elevations above roughly 3500-4000 ft focused in NorCal and the Mt. Shasta region.

DISCUSSION

A cold front will continue to move across the area today. Strong wind gusts to near 60 mph occurred along the coast south of Cape Blanco yesterday afternoon/evening, but a south- southeast component kept the strongest winds from surfacing farther north (except at the headlands). It turned breezy in the Rogue Valley yesterday evening ahead of the front with a peak wind gust here at the airport of 37 mph. Shasta Valley saw stronger wind speeds yesterday and overnight with peak gusts mostly in the 50-55 mph range, highest at Montague (57 mph). Wind advisories will continue over portions of the east side until 10 am PST and in the Shasta Valley until 1 pm PST. Welcome rainfall will accompany today's front through the west side this morning with precipitation becoming showery behind it. Precipitation will be lighter over the east side, but they'll get some as well. Snow levels remain fairly high, so we're expecting only minimal impacts above 5000 feet (a few inches up around Crater Lake National Park).

The front will push to SE portions of the forecast area tonight into Monday morning. It could get hung up a bit as the flow aloft becomes more/less parallel to it, but upper support will weaken and precipitation will gradually diminish. Post-frontal showers will continue behind the front, especially near and west of the Cascades. An upper trough axis will swing through Monday afternoon and evening and this should allow things to dry out area wide Monday night. This will probably lead to some low clouds and fog for west side valleys. Models then show yet another strong Pacific storm developing out around 45N and 135W late Tuesday moving south-southeastward offshore Wednesday. This will bring another front toward the coast with main impacts from winds and precip at the coast and into NorCal. The latest model runs continue to show a more southerly and offshore track of the surface low, with it sliding south-southeastward offshore, and then moving onshore somewhere in the vicinity of San Francisco on Thursday. This supports lower snow levels in our area (around 4000 feet), but places us more on the northeast side of the low, and therefore shifts the bulk of moisture towards northern California and into far southwest Oregon, especially near the coast. The result is a good chance for snow in Siskiyou County and points south, although several inches of snow are still possible for our Cascades and East Side as wrap-around moisture feeds into the area. We are considering the potential for a Winter Storm Watch for Siskiyou County above 4000 feet (zones 80, 82 and 83), but we will also have to keep an eye on the Mt. Shasta City area, where upslope precipitation enhancement Tuesday night/Wednesday morning could force snow levels lower, potentially down to the Interstate 5 corridor (3500 feet). Preliminary snow amounts of 6-12 inches look like a good bet above 4000 feet with Highway 89 east of Mt. Shasta (Snowman Summit) standing the highest probability of >6" (90-100%), though some areas down to McCloud and even near Black Butte Summit on I-5 have probabilities in the 30-50% range. Snow levels could fluctuate back upward Wednesday afternoon as precip intensity backs off some. Passes near Grass Lake (Highway 97), and Etna Summit on Sawyers Bar road will also likely be impacted. We'll hold off on watches for now, but confidence should increase as models hone in on the details in coming shifts. The low eventually moves into the Great Basin Thursday night into Friday and precipitation in our area should diminish.

Long range guidance shows another low forming in the NE Pacific with the next front possibly arriving at the coast Friday night or Saturday. -Spilde/BPN

AVIATION...15/06Z TAFs

A front moving inland tonight is bringing strong south winds to the area. Low level wind shear is expected at all TAF locations. Ceilings will lower from west to east as this front moves inland this evening, generally hovering around MVFR levels, though could potentially lower to IFR at times in heavy rain. Wind shear concerns will ease around 10-12z Sunday morning. The expectation is for generally improving conditions after 18z Sunday, but expect shower activity and terrain obscurations to continue through the afternoon.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, November 15, 2026

Chaotic seas will continue this morning, generally 14 to 21 feet at 12 to 14 seconds transitioning to a very high and very steep long period west swell (18 to 23 feet at 16 seconds) again this afternoon through Monday. South to southwest winds will be 15 to 25 kt. Seas briefly subside Monday night, but the next strong front will move in Tuesday. Expect rapidly increasing south to southeast winds, likely gales, with possible storm force wind gusts late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Seas will become very steep and hazardous again. Winds ease somewhat on Wednesday but seas remain steep due to long period westerly swell. This swell looks to be lower than what's expected this afternoon and into Monday. Seas may actually fall below 10 feet late this week (Thursday night/Friday).

Mariners are urged to remain in port during this period of hazardous marine weather. Secure vessels and continue to monitor forecasts for updates. -Spilde/BR-y

BEACH HAZARDS

Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, November 15, 2026...Right now, behind last night's cold front, wave periods over the coastal waters have lowered to 10-14 seconds with wave heights in the 15-20 ft range. Surf conditions, while still very rough and hazardous with breakers of 16 to 22 feet, are better than they were this time yesterday. Even so, another long period west swell (18 to 23 feet, 16 seconds) will build into the waters this afternoon and surf conditions will worsen again. Breakers in the surf zone could reach 25 to 30 ft again and these dangerous conditions then persist into Monday morning. Waves and surf remain hazardous Monday, but gradually diminish through Monday evening. -Spilde/BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST this morning for ORZ026. Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ031.

High Surf Warning until 10 PM PST Monday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.