textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation section

AVIATION...09/12Z TAFs

A front remains aimed at the Oregon Coast just north of North Bend. This is bringing gusty winds to the coast and a variety of ceiling conditions across the region. Along the coast and just offshore, IFR and LIFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with visibility also lowering this morning as the front slowly sags south. VFR conditions generally prevail across the region, but LIFR conditions are spotted in the Rogue/Illinois/Applegate Valleys, and these lower conditions will prevail through this morning. In the Umpqua Basin, the proximity of the front could limit fog development there, and VFR conditions are currently present, but have added MVFR ceilings when the sun comes.

Meanwhile, strong winds aloft will persist near the Cascades and over the east side in Oregon (north of Highway 140) today where higher terrain could experience gusts in excess of 50 mph. This could lead to some low-level wind shear over there (NE of Klamath Falls) since a low-level inversion probably doesn't allow these winds to mix all the way to the surface in some valleys. Even so, vertical mixing may improve today to allow surface wind gusts to 50 mph from around Summer Lake eastward.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 235 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite and observations show that low clouds are developing across some west side valleys, including the Rogue Valley. Heavier cloud cover is preventing fog development in more east side spots, including Klamath Falls for now. Radar has a few showers passing in far northern Coos and Douglas counties as they move east tonight. Through the morning, these showers are forecast to reach ~0.25"- 0.50" near the Douglas/Lane County border. Snow levels in the affected areas are above 8,000 feet tonight.

The upper level high to our southwest off of central California is still looking to be enough to keep most of the activity north near Portland and Seattle this week. The main areas to see rainfall for the next few days will be the same locations to see it now. Between this morning and Wednesday morning, very northern Coos and Douglas counties, including parts of the Cascades, can expect 0.30"-0.75", with near 1.25"-1.75" near the northernmost part of Douglas County. Most of the rain will fall between this morning and into the evening. Although most of this will be occurring in a 12 hour period, there is a lower concern for flooding with this compared to areas north of us. East side and Northern California have the lowest chances for rain with less than .15" from Chemult to Fort Rock being the most to expect.

Although the area will be dry, east side will have to deal with stronger winds between now and this afternoon. A mid-level jet of 50- 60 kt with similar speeds at 300 mb show that strong winds are forecast to reach the surface during this time with gusts near 50 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect through this evening, and this includes areas near Silver Lake, Summer Lake, and Paisley. Wind gusts near 45 mph have already been reported at Summer Lake early this morning. Please see the NPWMFR for more information.

Getting into the middle of the week, the high pressure to our southwest takes control and brings drier conditions through at least the start of next weekend. Earlier models were showing a continued chance of showers at the coast through the work week, but this has started to back off. The EC has also backed off on weekend rain chances, but it is still coming in earlier than the GFS with a Monday morning vs Monday afternoon timeframe. Either way, there is some more agreement that early next week could have active weather in both Southern Oregon and Northern California. In the meantime, we will be watching for how the system the next few days moves through and watch for how the models handle the next week after. -9

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Tuesday, December 9, 2025...Gusty south winds and steep wind waves combined with westerly swell will maintain conditions hazardous to small craft through at least today. Winds subside tonight, but west swell persists into Wednesday, especially north of Cape Blanco. Conditions improve for the latter half of the week as swell dominated seas gradually lower. Expecting showers over the waters through mid-week as well which could further reduce visibilities (fog/low clouds expected as well) over the next couple days.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-370.