textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...27/00Z TAFs

VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all locations except for areas along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. Periods of MVFR ceilings will persist along the immediate coast, before becoming more widespread later this evening and overnight. Expect MVFR ceilings to push into the Umpqua Basin with ceilings lowering to LIFR/IFR along the coast overnight. Gusty winds this afternoon will ease after sunset. Conditions along the coast and Umpqua Basin will improve to VFR Monday morning. Expect a similar pattern for the next several days. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 218 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* A Red Flag Warning is in place over Modoc and southwest Lake County through 8 PM tonight to highlight continuing gusty winds and low relative humidities.

* While winds are below criteria in other areas, enhanced breezes and dry conditions can still affect fire growth.

* Generally seasonable summer weather is expected for the week ahead.

DISCUSSION...Enhanced winds continue east of the Cascades this afternoon, especially over Modoc and southwest Lake counties. With ongoing critically dry conditions as well as these gusty winds, a Red Flag Warning is in place through 8 PM tonight for these areas to highlight those hazardous conditions. While other areas on either side of the Cascades are not seeing critical wind speeds, elevated afternoon breezes as well as dry conditions can still allow a fire to spread quickly. Please consider extra awareness with any activity that can create sparks or ignite dry fuels. Fire weather aside, today looks to be an otherwise seasonable day.

Typical summer temperatures and normal diurnal winds are generally expected for the week ahead, with the upper flow remaining from the southwest between a continental ridge and troughs around approaching Pacific lows. The ridge is strong enough to prevent these lows from passing over the area, while the troughs are able to do the same. This will keep temperatures in a seasonable range, with a slight nudge upwards possible towards the end of the week as the ridge advances towards the area. Temperatures may reach about 5 degrees above normal on Friday, especially east of the Cascades. Current forecast highs for Friday have the coast in the low 70s, the Umpqua Valley floor in the high 80s, and most other areas in the mid to high 90s. Isolated areas of triple digits look to be limited to the Klamath River Valley. Those extra 5 degrees look to cool over next weekend.

While some shortwaves follow that southwest pattern, most are forecast to travel to the south. One shortwave may move over the area late Thursday morning, which could increase wind speeds slightly. Atmospheric moisture increases slightly in this timeframe, which may support a few isolated thunderstorms but hardly enough for any kind of widespread thunderstorm activity. While a few long-term ensemble members show isolated development, they are definitely in the minority (Sub-10% chances). Overall, expectations for thunderstorms in the forecast period are minimal. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Saturday, July 25, 2026...Sub- advisory conditions under light south through westerly winds and low seas are expected to continue into the start of the week ahead. Seas will be a mix of fresh short period northwest swell and low long period south swell. North winds could return Wednesday afternoon, possibly building small craft conditions across area waters through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, July 26, 2026...

Critical fire weather conditions will probably continue this afternoon within FWZs 624 and 285. This red flag warning is more borderline based on the probability of meeting critical values. Our local MOS guidance based off of GFS output does suggest some sites reaching 30 mph wind gusts this afternoon in FWZ 285 and southern sections of 624. Humidities will continue to inch higher on Monday with slightly weaker wind gusts. This theme will continue for most of next week with a low off the BC coast bringing deeper west flow off the Pacific. With this deeper west flow, we should also see some stronger marine pushes overnight with good recoveries in some valleys west of the Cascades.

Lastly, most models are hinting at a short wave moving through around Thursday. A small group of ensemble members in the ECMWF are picking up on thunderstorms around central Oregon and north eastern Oregon Thursday afternoon. A very small minority(2/50) have some activity in our forecast area in south western Oregon. Something to keep an eye on over the next few days.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.