textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* A dry cold front will pass through the area today, with increased winds across the region, especially east of the Cascades, where areas of blowing dust are possible.

* Marine stratus and/or fog will persist along the coast today into tonight, with some light drizzle possible along and west of the coastal mountains.

* A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening due to gusty winds and low humidity.

* Winds ease on Sunday, with a generally unimpactful pattern expected for next week.

DISCUSSION

The closed low that has lingered offshore for the past few days will push northeast today, passing onshore north of the mouth of the Columbia River by late this afternoon, while an associated dry cold front will pass through the region as well. This will result in daytime highs of up to 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, and much closer to normal for this time of year. Gusty winds are expected today as the front passes. Model guidance shows 700 mb winds, a good proxy for maximum gusts east of the Cascades, will peak at about 40 mph ahead of the front early this afternoon, then diminish through the evening. To the west of the Cascades, particularly in the Rogue and Shasta valleys, gusty northwest winds will peak this afternoon behind the front, gusting to around 20 mph. These winds, along with low daytime humidity, will result in heightened fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening for areas east of the Cascades. A Red Flag Warning is in place for these areas, with details available in the fire discussion below, and at PDXRFWMFR.

The frontal passage will be a dry one, for the most part, but some drizzle or very light rain is possible along the coast and in the coastal ranges as onshore flow keeps the marine layer well entrenched there, and upslope flow enhances along the western slopes of the coastal ranges.

The trough opens up and rejoins the main belt of Westerlies as it exits the area Sunday into Monday, allowing the Four-Corners ridge to retrograde back to the west. The northwestern periphery of this ridge will nudge in overhead Monday into Tuesday, allowing temperatures to rise about 5 to 10 degrees, producing warmer than normal late August highs. There is a potential, although slight, that increased moisture entering the area within the southwest flow aloft could interact with a weak impulse, could produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two over far eastern Modoc and southeastern Lake counties, but much will depend on how far the ridge actually nudges into the region, and if the timing is just right.

The warming of MOnday and Tuesday will be shortlived, however, as another trough digs southward offshore of British Columbia, arriving off the coast of the Pacific Northwest by midweek. The trough will push the ridge to the east, bringing temperatures back to more seasonal levels for the remainder of the week.

Minor disturbances in the persistent southwest upper-level flow next week may result in breezy to gusty afternoon winds at times, especially if another dry front or two pass through the area. Long term ensemble guidance shows little hope for measurable precipitation through the rest of the month, and only a very small chance for the first week of September.

AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs

IFR in marine stratus or fog will persist through tonight along the coast and over the marine waters, with areas of LIFR and drizzle possible along and west of the coastal ranges this morning, and again tonight into Sunday morning.

Inland, VFR conditions will prevail. Gusty winds will return this afternoon and evening with the passage of a mostly dry cold front. Southwest winds gusting between 20 and 40 kt are likely east of the Cascades this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30 kt in the Shasta and Rogue valleys. Winds will ease after sunset.

MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026

South winds are expected today as a weak front passes through the coastal waters, then winds will shift to the north and increase Sunday morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the offshore waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of winds and fog possible along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through much of next week with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 130 AM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026

An upper level trough and associated dry cold front will pass through the region today, bringing a period of increased winds and critical fire weather conditions. Model guidance shows 700 mb winds, a good proxy for maximum gusts east of the Cascades, will peak at about 40 mph ahead of the front early this afternoon, then diminish through the evening. To the west of the Cascades, particularly in the Rogue and Shasta valleys, gusty northwest winds will peak this afternoon behind the front, gusting to around 20 mph. The deciding factor for potential critical fire weather today will hinge on humidity. Minimum RH west of the Cascades will be too high, so even though winds will be gusty and may approach critical values, conditions should remain below levels of concern. East of the Cascades, however, daytime minimum humidity will trend lower today than yesterday, dropping into the teens or even single digit percentages. Thus, another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected there. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Cascades this afternoon, for FWZs 284/285/624/625.

More typical summer conditions return Sunday and persist into early next week. There are some signals for thunderstorm chances across far eastern 285/625, namely the Warner and Hart mountains, on Monday, but much will depend on how far west the Four Corners High retrogrades behind this trough passage. Otherwise, another trough drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers off the BC coast through early next week. There will likely be additional shortwaves/troughs to swing through the region early next week, bringing periods of enhanced winds.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376.