textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

A shortwave ridge passing over northern California and southern Oregon will allow for a period of calm this morning and afternoon. Daytime highs will warm slightly from Monday's temperatures, and clouds will linger through the afternoon west of the Cascades while east side areas may see some clear skies.

A cold front will bring some coastal showers this evening, with more widespread rainfall expected on Wednesday. Coastal cities look to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, while coastal ranges could see around 2 inches. Rainfall in the Umpqua Valley is forecast to be between 0.75 and 1 inch, with other valleys and basins seeing lower amounts through Wednesday.

With snow levels expected to hover at 4500-5500 feet from the front's arrival through Wednesday morning, winter impacts look to be limited to the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for areas near and north of Crater Lake and at elevations above 5000 feet from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, given that snowfall in this area is expected to make travel hazardous. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast over the Cascades on Wednesday. Current SPC guidance shows 50-90% chances for snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour late Wednesday morning into early in the afternoon.

Gusty winds are expected over elevated terrain on Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. Gusts along Winter Rim and the Warner Mountains have 50-80% chances to reach 45 mph in that late Wednesday morning-early afternoon timeframe, per HREF probabilistic guidance. Gusts of 20-30 mph are more widespread across east side areas.

Activity across the area eases on Wednesday evening, but a cold air mass looks to bring impactful overnight low temperatures for west side valleys. The Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and western Klamath County valleys are all forecast to see lows from the mid 20s to low 30s on these nights. These temperatures would bring chances of frost or freezing conditions. East of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the mid teens to low 20s.

Chilly nights aside, Thursday looks to be a quieter day. While snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet in the morning, declining activity will minimize the chance of impactful winter conditions at lower elevations. Another shortwave ridge looks to bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday. Long-term deterministic imagery is showing more agreement of a low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest, bringing periods of southwest or southerly flow. While details are still coarse, the tight pressure gradients aloft in imagery tend to indicate stronger winds, and southerly flow patterns tend to deliver moderate to heavy precipitation to the Mount Shasta area and coastal terrain. Details remain coarse for this timeframe, so stay tuned for additional details on continuing active weather. -TAD

AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs

VFR levels continue across northern California and southern Oregon under mid to high level ceilings. These levels are expected to continue through this afternoon. An approaching cold front will bring rainfall over west side areas, with the possibility of MVFR (or locally lower) ceilings and visibilities. The highest precipitation amounts will be along the Oregon coast and over the Cascades. Snow showers are expected to develop over the Cascades, and rainfall will start to develop east of the Cascades towards the end of the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Seas will stay below advisory level strength through this morning. A front will start passing through the region later today. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas this evening and into Wednesday. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.