textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Hot and dry weather will continue through Saturday with temperatures becoming more seasonable from Sunday onward, but still above normal.

* Smoke from nearby wildfires will produce unhealthy air quality at times for some areas.

* Dry pattern continues through at least mid next week, but signs are pointing toward potential lightning for late next week or next weekend.

DISCUSSION

The strong upper ridge that's been over the area the last couple of days will migrate to a position near the Four Corners this weekend with zonal flow aloft developing across the Pacific Northwest. This will allow weak disturbances to pass mostly to our north into next week. Heat advisories are still in effect through this evening for most inland areas, but we've extended them to continue into Saturday evening across NorCal. With subtly lower heights, temperatures won't be quite as hot as they have been Sunday into next week, but, for the most part, will be near to just above normal. Overall, not much change is expected during the next 7 days, other than knocking off a few degrees from high temps, and a very slight increase in humidity. We can expect modest diurnally driven breezes each afternoon and evening, which will keep fire weather concerns elevated. Smoke will be thickest over Klamath/Lake counties from the Wrights Spring fire (burning between Chiloquin and Sprague River) where an unstable atmosphere and W-NW winds will likely cause enhanced burning periods each afternoon/evening.

The marine layer will also make nightly appearances along the coast, but mostly north of Cape Blanco. This is because another thermal trough will strengthen in NW California and extend northward into SW Oregon. This will lead to stronger N winds (gales) over the marine waters and nightly E-NE flow over the coastal mountains. With the drier winds moving mostly offshore, we expect sunnier conditions from Port Orford south. Winds funneling down the Chetco Valley could result in some warm afternoons in Brookings (highs in the 70s/80s) Saturday-Wednesday.

Late next week, ensemble guidance is showing a potential surge of monsoonal moisture into the area as early as Friday, but more likely next weekend. After a long lay off, this will re-introduce the possibility of lightning/thunderstorms into the forecast. -Spilde

AVIATION...07/18Z TAFs

Marine stratus is peeling back to the beaches late this morning and should clear to VFR at least briefly at North Bend before returning by this evening. VFR will prevail inland across the remainder, except areas of wildfire smoke and haze will cause some visibility reductions, especially in the immediate vicinity and just downwind of the fires. IFR/LIFR marine stratus will impact the coast overnight into Saturday morning. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Friday, August 7, 2026

North winds will continue to strengthen through this weekend into early next week. Steep seas are expected south of Cape Blanco through Saturday morning. Then, gale force winds and very steep seas are expected to develop south south of Port Orford Saturday afternoon through Monday while gusty north winds and steep seas expand north of Cape Blanco. We upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning and extended it out through Monday evening. Little variation in strength of the thermal trough is expected even beyond that, so these conditions could persist through at least the middle of next week. -Spilde

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, August 7, 2026

We are still near to critical thresholds of hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon, with high temperatures inland generally only a few to several degrees away from record values. A trend of gradual, very slight cooling and similarly slight improvement in humidity values is expected each day into next Wednesday or Thursday. While a helpful trend, highs temperatures at their lowest next Wednesday or Thursday will still be a few degrees above normal.

Meantime, afternoon and evening breezes will be near typical strength each day, with no significantly strong winds. The trend to closer to normal conditions involves the upper level ridge and surface thermal trough shifting farther inland. This pattern does include overnight breezy east to northeast winds at ridge tops (including the Coast Range and Kalmiopsis Wilderness), where poor to moderate humidity recoveries will be poorest tonight.

Thunderstorm chances may develop as early as Friday, with a higher probability for Day 8/9 (next weekend). It is too early for any level of precision with the details of the location and extent of storm coverage. But, more than 30% of the combined GFS and ECMWF ensemble suites of data indicate a wave developing into a trough offshore of California to allow a southerly influx of monsoonal moisture.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ023-024-026- 028>031.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ080>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.