textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Hot and dry weather will continue through Saturday with temperatures more seasonable Sunday onward

* Smoke from nearby wildfires will produce unhealthy air quality over some areas

* No chances for thunderstorms until the middle of the month

DISCUSSION (Issued 236 PM Thu Aug 6)

Smoke and heat are the main weather hazards over the forecast area this afternoon. It looks like temperatures will still push into the 100's in our westside valleys this afternoon, yet short of any records. In addition, models are anticipating a gradual cool off as the thermal trough has moved eastward and the 500 mb ridge slightly weakens this weekend. We'll also see some stronger westerly flow aloft, which will push smoke higher in the atmosphere eastwards.

During the morning hours, we'll get our usual southwest to west winds over the forecast area before breezy north to northwest wind sets up during the afternoon and evening hours. This will result in smoke from the Wright Springs fire hovering around Klamath Falls for the next few days. The winds from the Wood Rat fire popping up near Ruch will push smoke into the Rogue Valley and air quality will likely deteriorate over the next 24 hours.

500 mb heights become more zonal for most of the weekend before a short wave moves through the Pacific Northwest around the Saturday timeframe. We looked through the ensembles and we don't see any chance of showers or thunderstorms over our forecast area as this trough moves through. Another wave also appears to develop along the coast during the Tuesday timeframe with no anticipated impacts around our region.

The only other weather feature to mention is around next week when the models are anticipating another deeper wave to move into the Pacific Northwest around Thursday. One would expect a few thunderstorms to be in the forecast, although it is looking fairly dry around Oregon, perhaps because the trough trajectory is dropping in from the north west off the Gulf of Alaska. In any case, it's still looking fairly dry through most of next week.

There is some hope for precipitation in the forecast around Day 10. About 30% of ensemble members are predicting spotty convection over southern Oregon and northern California around August 15th. Some of this could also come in the form of thunderstorms. Something to monitor during future model runs.

-Smith

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

Low clouds will bring MVFR to IFR conditions along the coast impacting KOTH throughout this TAF cycle. For inland TAF sties, expecting plenty of sunshine and VFR conditions through this cycle. Expecting typical diurnal breezes as well. Lastly, there will be areas of smoke/haze from nearby wildfires.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 330 AM PDT Friday, August 6, 2026

Below advisory conditions continue through late this morning with north wind wave dominated seas. North winds will strengthen today through the weekend into early next week. Steep seas are expected south of Cape Blanco Friday morning through Saturday morning, then a gale watch south of Port Orford later Saturday with steep seas elsewhere.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ023-024-026- 028>031.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080-081- 083>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350- 370.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.