textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Low impact weather expected through the forecast period.

* Warm and dry conditions are expected across northern California and southern Oregon through the 7-day forecast period.

* Temperatures peak on Saturday and Sunday at 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with chances for more seasonal temperatures towards the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

An upper level ridge remains the dominant feature across the region, supporting a continued period of warm and dry August-like weather across southern Oregon and northern California. The ridge will maintain strong subsidence and mostly clear skies through the remainder of the week, with temperatures running well above normal across the West Side valleys. There could be some patchy areas of fog that redevelop in the lower river valleys of the Coquille/Umpqua Basins overnight tonight. High pressure gradually settles over the Desert Southwest Friday, with our area remaining on the northern periphery of this feature underneath nearly zonal flow aloft. High temperatures will remain elevated through the weekend, with the warmest and driest conditions expected on Saturday and Sunday as the ridge strengthens and expands northward. Current guidance suggests highs in the low to mid 90s will be common across the West Side valleys during this period. Glancing at records across the region for 10/3 - 10/5, it's quite likely that afternoon high temperatures will approach or challenge record highs across the region.

The dry pattern will continue to support low afternoon relative humidities, particularly across the valleys east of the Cascades and in the southern Oregon/northern California interior. Some of the driest locations will see RH values fall into the teens, while West Side valleys generally remain in the 20-40 percent range. Despite the dryness, overnight recoveries remain generally favorable across lower elevations, which should help moderate the overall fire-weather threat. Recoveries will trend lower on exposed peaks and ridgelines as easterly flow develops toward the end of the week and into the weekend. Winds will generally be light with typical diurnal wind directions. Winds are expected to be well below critical thresholds for Fire Weather concerns.

Looking ahead, the ridge remains in place early next week, although a weak low pressure system will approach from the west and dampen the ridge over the region. Overall, the pattern stays predominantly dry, with subtly cooler afternoon temperatures for early next week as the ridge weakens in response to the aforementioned low pressure system. The upper level ridge will rebound quickly by mid week however, with long term guidance showing this ridge sticking through next week, which will maintain above normal temperatures and dry conditions through then. Warm temperatures that stay short of summer highs make outdoor activities appealing but anticipated conditions will bring summer like dryness. Dry grasses and leaves are still present in many areas. Please be cautious if you choose to do anything that may create a spark.

AVIATION

01/18Z TAFs..VFR prevails across the region, with the exception of MVFR ceilings in the Umpqua Basin. This will improve to VFR by 20z. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for most areas. Expect the return of LIFR conditions along the coast north of Cape Blanco and south of Gold Beach tonight into Friday morning. Cloud cover should be less extensive in the Umpqua Basin tonight, but MVFR ceilings could impact the Roseburg terminal around sunrise again Friday morning.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Thursday, October 01, 2026

As the thermal trough expands northward, steep seas will spread north to around Coos Bay today, with very steep seas persisting south of Gold Beach through tonight. Winds ease some Friday, so conditions will improve north of Cape Blanco but steep seas will persist southward into the weekend. As the thermal trough moves inland over the weekend, expect conditions to improve some, especially for the inner waters, though gusty north winds and steep seas are likely to be present at times well into next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.