textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers are likely early this evening through Friday with isolated thunderstorm (10%) for areas mainly west of the Cascades, but chances will increase on Friday for light rain over eastside areas

* Elevated to critical fire weather concerns will exists today for breezy winds and low RH across eastside areas ahead of the front with Modoc county seeing the higher threat

* Below normal temperatures are then expected through the weekend with the possibility of frost/freeze each morning; possibly going into early next week

* Mostly dry weather is expected this weekend through early next week

DISCUSSION

A trough and associated front will pass through the region today/tonight. Showers with light to isolated moderate rainfall are likely over westside areas. We may also have a few isolated thunderstorms, but instability is very meager which doesn't lead to high confidence. However, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder with Friday having the "better" chance. The probability for 0.25" of rainfall over 48 hours ranges from 20% to 90% for westside areas in Oregon and around 5%-30% for western Siskiyou. The highest probabilities are along/near the southern Oregon coast and gradually decreasing as you go east/inland. Official amounts generally range from about 0.05" to around 0.75" over roughly 36-48 hours. Highest amounts (0.50"-0.75") along/near the coast and higher elevation areas of Douglas County. Eastside areas could see around a trace to around 0.05" of rainfall with Friday being the better shot at rainfall accumulation. Much of northern California will miss out on rainfall except western Siskiyou County.

Additionally, it will be breezy as the trough passes through the region today and tomorrow with coastal areas and Modoc/Lake counties having the strongest wind speeds. That said, not expecting speeds to be strong enough to warrant any hazards; however, given the low RH ahead of the front today we could see elevated to isolated critical fire weather conditions. Modoc County still being in high fire danger will have the greatest fire weather threat today.

Thereafter, temperatures drop Friday and through the weekend as the trough pushes eastward. For example, Medford may only reach the upper 60s for a high on Friday with temperatures struggling to reach the 70s through the weekend for lower elevations/warmer locations. In other words, expecting a noticeable cool down (below normal temperatures) through the weekend. Through this stretch, some eastside areas could see temperatures drop overnight to frost/freeze levels starting Saturday morning. Temperatures are back near normal starting Tuesday.

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

An approaching front will bring showers with light to at times moderate rainfall across the region eventually impacting all terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today, but confidence is low for any terminal to be impacted. KOTH will see the worst conditions with LIFR/IFR ceilings this morning, but conditions will briefly improve late this morning before the front arrives. MVFR conditions will then follow as rainfall starts to spread onshore. Inland TAF sites will see ceilings close to MVFR but may end up being VFR throughout this cycle. Breezy wind speeds are also expected with the passage of the front, with the strongest speeds along/near the coast.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Thursday, September 24, 2026

North winds will continue to diminish this morning. Winds become southerly this afternoon ahead of a frontal system. The front will move across the region tonight resulting in rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, and rapidly deteriorating sea conditions. Strong south winds and very steep hazardous seas are expected, with isolated gale gusts around and north of Reedsport. Very steep seas will linger on Friday with the highest seas across the northern waters. North winds and a thermal trough return Friday night with steep to very steep seas possible through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Before the shower activity begins today, conditions will be breezy for eastside areas with low RH through the afternoon hours. This means we will have a window where elevated to isolated critical fire weather concerns will exist this afternoon/early evening. Through peak heating, RH values will drop down to the lower teens to low 20 percent range. This combined with wind speeds around 15 to 25 mph and gust around 30 to 35 mph will lead to at least some concern for fire weather, especially Modoc county where high fire danger still exists. There is a small chance for light rainfall over eastside areas, but by far and large most of the shower activity will remain over westside areas today.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.