textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...22/00Z TAFs

Dry weather will persist tonight through Thursday. IFR/LIFR fog/low clouds will continue in portions of the Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg. After breaking to VFR for the first time in over a week this afternoon, areas of LIFR are expected to redevelop in/around Grants Pass. Patchy IFR fog could also develop around Medford toward sunrise, but it should be short-lived. The remainder of the area will be VFR with varying amounts of high cirrus.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 213 PM PST Wed Jan 21 2026/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this afternoon shows persistent fog in the Umpqua Basin and Illinois Valley/Grants Pass area, along with some higher level clouds streaming overhead. Also seen on satellite is a weak low pressure moving towards the California Coast. Aside from some increased cloud cover, we don't expect much change in the overall day to day conditions through the remainder of the week. Fog and freezing fog will remain or return to the same places as the day before, and we've gone ahead with another freezing fog and dense fog advisories for tonight into Thursday morning. Additionally, while mixing will improve slightly today, we decided to extend the Air Stagnation Advisory through Friday afternoon. Conditions aren't really improving on a large enough scale until a shortwave moves into the region Friday afternoon. Details can be found at NPWMFR.

Low pressure currently seen on satellite is interrupting the overall ridge pattern we've been in for several days now. The ridge will rebound over the eastern Pacific late Thursday into Friday, albeit weaker and farther west than recent days. This will allow some inside slider shortwaves to dive down the back side Thursday night into Friday and again Friday night into Saturday. Overall, there won't be much change in the sensible weather with these shortwaves, but expect some increased cloud cover Thursday night into Friday evening. Status quo is expected for the remainder of the week.

Late Friday into Saturday and through the weekend, we'll remain on the back side of the ridge under northerly to somewhat northwesterly flow aloft. Following the shortwave expected Friday night into Saturday, surface high pressure strengthens over the East Side and this will bring a round of dry easterly flow to the region for Saturday morning through Sunday. The air mass will dry significantly under this downslope flow, which could bring some fairly cold temperatures both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Much will depend on if this dry air can mix down into the valleys to keep fog from forming, but current forecasts keep fog out of the area over the weekend, which would allow for increased radiational cooling and lowering temperatures compared to recent nights. In fact, we may need to consider some Cold Weather Advisories for areas west of the Cascades where low temperatures are forecast to reach within a few degrees of advisory criteria (15 degrees for northern California/20 degrees for Jackson/Josephine Counties/25 degrees Douglas County). While the East Side will see some cold temperatures as well (teens to single digits), forecasted values don't come as close to advisory criteria (0 degrees) for this time. Additionally, with this dry air mass settling over the region, expect continued moderate to poor recoveries and unseasonably low day time humidities across the region through the weekend.

Beyond the weekend, the pattern looks to be more progressive for the first half of the week compared to recent weeks. By early next week, additional shortwaves pass through the region in a more west to northwesterly flow, which will continue to weaken the ridge pattern. Widespread precipitation is still not expected, however, we'll see moderating conditions with improved/higher humidities/recoveries and overnight temperatures more typical for this time of year. Ensembles continue to show the potential return to active weather towards the latter half of next week (January 28th-30th) into early February.

AVIATION...21/18Z TAFs...LIFR ceilings and visibilities persist this afternoon within Roseburg(KRBG) and Grants Pass(K3S8). It's pretty much rinse and repeat from yesterday with some high clouds in the area as a relatively dry upper level low lingers off the coast of California this afternoon. We'll see yet another round of fog and lower ceilings later tonight as high pressure still has some grip on the area. Medford(KMFR) could see some fog around Thursday morning at sunrise as it has happened the last few mornings.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 300 PM PST Wednesday, January 21, 2026...Below advisory seas remain in the forecast for area waters through this afternoon. A west swell composed of two smaller swell groups will persist in the forecast area through the weekend. Northerly winds will begin to increase Thursday morning and continue to strengthen by Friday. Seas will increase and become steep and hazardous to smaller crafts south of Cape Blanco, especially beyond 10 nm from shore. Sustained winds will be 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots with seas under 10 feet. Winds will weaken by Saturday as easterly flow develops and high pressure builds farther inland.

A more active pattern is expected next week and there is a moderate(50%) chance at an actual front moving through the waters around the Wednesday and Thursday time frame.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for ORZ023-024-026- 029>031.

Dense Fog Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon PST Thursday for ORZ023.

Freezing Fog Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon PST Thursday for ORZ024.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ356-376.