textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion Updated.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 205 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026/

DISCUSSION... Skies are clearing up this afternoon as some high clouds swing through the forecast area. There are some prescribed fire burns like yesterday, although those should be producing less smoke by later tonight.

A thermal trough will strengthen along the Oregon coast later tonight as high pressure begins to build over the forecast area. We'll see some light east flow over southern Oregon overnight before the flow shifts more westerly. The thermal trough will definitely warm us up on Saturday as highs push into the upper 80's and keep temperatures above normal for early May.

We'll cool back down on Sunday before temperatures warm up again on Monday. It looks like the GFS is forecasting a dry cold front stalling out in Central Oregon and the latest WPC surface front forecast agree with us in that assessment. The GFS 1000-500 mb layer RH looks rather dry around Bend Monday afternoon and evening, which led us to thing something is there.

High pressure strengthens again on Monday and Tuesday with some more hints that another thermal trough will build over the region. Highs will be pushing into the lower 90's in many location with the NBM forecasting 91 degrees here in Medford on Tuesday. As a reminder, our normal high this time of year is 73, so a solid 15 degrees above normal for this time of year for the high temperature.

By Wednesday, the forecast begins to diverge with 40% of ensemble forecasts bringing precipitation into Oregon with a higher focus on northern Oregon. Meanwhile, another 40% just keep things plain old dry with some showers or perhaps thunderstorms developing in the afternoon or evening. The synoptic patterns are quite different and show frankly two completely different scenarios in both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF. The GFS shows a cutoff low off the California coastline, which points to the afternoon thunderstorms. The ECMWF shows a shortwave bringing a well defined cold front into the Oregon coastline on Wednesday, which would lead to some lighter precipitation and snow levels briefly falling to 5500 feet. Overall, a lot to sill sort out on Wednesday and beyond!

AVIATION...09/00Z TAFs

Conditions are VFR areawide through this evening. Areas of IFR/LIFR are expected to develop tonight into early Saturday morning in the Umpqua Valley, Coquille Valley and near North Bend. Low clouds will burn off in the late morning on Saturday with VFR conditions expected areawide.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Friday, May 8, 2026

Sub-advisory conditions will persist today and likely into Saturday as well. North winds and westerly swell increase slightly Saturday, which could bring some isolated areas of steep seas south of Cape Blanco. A thermal trough develops later this weekend, bringing increasing north winds and wind driven steep seas south of Cape Blanco that are likely to spread north by Monday. Steep seas likely continue through mid-week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.