textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Light rain showers will spread across most of the area this afternoon and evening, with isolated thunderstorms possible along the coast and over northern Lake and Klamath counties.

* Gusty winds are expected in the Scott and Shasta Valleys as well as across the East Side.

* Temperatures Sunday will cool to around 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

* Warm and dry conditions return Monday and persist through the rest of the week, with temperatures peaking around 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Thursday/Friday.

DISCUSSION

A line of showers has moved onshore this morning, marking the leading edge of the approaching front. Showers will overspread much of the area this afternoon and evening, before tapering off overnight. Rainfall amounts will be light, with only about a quarter of an inch expected along the coast and the northern Cascades, and less than a tenth of an inch elsewhere. Some locations, particularly in northern California, the East Side, and the Rogue Valley, may only get a hundredth of an inch, or may not measure at all. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible along the coast and over northern portions of the East Side today, but chances for those remain below 20 percent.

Temperatures today are trending about 10 degrees below normal fro this time of year, and will cool further to about 15 degrees below normal for Sunday. Another round of frost /freeze is possible for the populated areas of the East Side Sunday night into Monday morning.

Gusty winds will accompany the front today, especially in the Shasta and Scott valleys and across the East Side and northeastern California (Modoc). Wind gusts in these areas will mostly be in the 25-35 mph range, with gusts approaching 40 mph possible over terrain in Lake and Modoc counties. Increasing humidity will prevent critical fire weather conditions, but these gusty winds moving over areas of potentially dry fuels is enough to emphasize fire weather concerns.

After a cool, mostly dry Sunday with lighter, but still breezy winds, a warming and drying trend begins Monday as the overhead trough weakens for the first half of the week, then high pressure rebuilds over southern Oregon and far northern California mid to late in the week. Near normal temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday, followed by high temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the rest of the work week.

AVIATION...12/18Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail across the region this morning and will likely do so through the TAF period. An incoming system will bring increasing VFR cloud cover across the area today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected north of Gold Beach this afternoon, with light showers spreading inland to the Cascades through tonight. Additionally, gusty winds are expected across the region today, strongest over the terrain, in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades where gusts of 30 to 35 kt will be common. These winds should ease by 03z-06z this evening.

Lower ceilings are expected at the coast beginning this evening, becoming MVFR with patchy IFR after 00Z, then IFR around 03Z into Sunday morning. Ceilings will lower for areas west of the Cascades as well, but are expected to remain VFR into Sunday morning. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Saturday, September 12, 2026

South to southwest winds will persist through this evening before a cold front passes through the region. Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory criteria today, but showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening. Winds turn west to northwesterly tonight into Sunday, with sub-advisory conditions continuing through at least Sunday evening.

A thermal trough develops late Sunday into Monday, bringing the return of gusty winds and steep wind driven seas. Conditions hazardous to small craft are likely to return south of Cape Blanco by early Monday morning and persist into at least mid-week. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.