textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Temperatures will remain high today, even with some onshore flow developing later in the evening as a thermal trough moves further inland. Even with a more zonal flow pattern developing into the weekend, temperatures will remain elevated with highs in the upper 80's here in Medford on Sunday. Some embedded shortwaves in this flow will bring a very low chance of showers Saturday afternoon. We should also see a fair amount of cloud cover along the coast between Friday and Sunday as this thermal trough retreats farther inland. We usually see plenty of coastal stratus shoot up the coast when these thermal troughs move inland and the NBM does have this in the forecast. Not a huge impact, although temperatures could be cooler along the coast this weekend.

Things begin to change up on Monday as a trough in the Pacific approaches the Oregon coast. Ensembles are in really good agreement with the timing of the cold front moving onshore during the afternoon and evening of Memorial Day. It looks like the cold front initially moves onshore between 18Z and 21Z on Monday with the probability of precipitation peaking between 0Z and 6Z with some grid points showing PoPs around 90%. Overall, early Monday should stay dry, although plan for some lighter rain in the afternoon hours. Looking at the forecast soundings, thunderstorms look unlikely as there isn't much instability and most of it is between the 0C to -10C layer, so not much charge generation in the clouds.

As this cold front and trough approach the region, wind speeds near the surface will also increase. 700mb winds are around 30 to 35 knots during peak mixing, so still short of wind advisory thresholds east of the Cascades. Overall, pretty low impact weather unless one has outdoor activities on Memorial Day afternoon.

With more cloud cover on Monday, temperatures will trend down notably compared to what we'll see this weekend. Those temperatures will trend even lower by Tuesday once the colder air funnels into the region.

This low will likely become cutoff and stall out around south central Oregon/north western Nevada/northeastern California. The end result should be sporadic cloud cover through the week and the continued chance of some showers or perhaps some thunderstorms. The probabilities are highest on Tuesday, although they generally lower through the week as there are questions about moisture and how this low evolves through the week.

Overall, the weather definitely becomes more active next week, although the impacts are not extreme. We do have some fire weather threats noted in the discussion below on Monday, especially around Lake County.

-Smith

AVIATION...22/06Z TAFs

Along the coast, areas of IFR ceilings will continue overnight into Friday morning north of Cape Blanco. Stratus will clear by late Friday morning as gusty winds develop along the coast. Areas of IFR are then expected to redevelop Friday evening for areas north of Cape Blanco.

Inland, expect VFR levels with clear skies through the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 300 PM AM Friday, May 22, 2026

Conditions will remain hazardous to smaller crafts through Friday night due to gusty north winds and high and steep seas. The thermal trough will weaken by Sunday and a cold front will move through the waters by Monday.

This cold front will bring some gusty south winds and a high and steep seas to the waters on Monday night into Tuesday. These seas will be hazardous to smaller crafts as wave heights increase up to 13 to 15 feet.

-Smith

FIRE WEATHER

As we maintain the dry airmass and breezy afternoons, there will be at least an elevated threat for fire weather conditions each day. Monday has the most concern as we'll see the strongest winds across the region. In fact, wind speeds may reach wind advisory criteria for eastside areas. Lake County in particular could see isolated areas of critical wind and critical RH, but timing of precipitation could alter the RH field leading to uncertainty. With that said, fuel conditions per fire agencies reveal the overall fire weather threat remains low to moderate. Given the low RH values each afternoon and breezy winds, people should exercise caution with any outdoor activities that could cause sparks or flames, especially eastside areas with Lake County in particular. Bottom line is that fire season was declared early this year, so these precautionary actions should already be in place, but its especially important when we have these elevated concerns.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350- 370.