textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation discussion updated.

AVIATION...28/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period for most areas, with the exception being areas of low stratus or fog late tonight into early Monday morning along the coast north of Cape Blanco. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over northern California and along the southern Oregon Cascades. MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible under stronger cells, along with gusty erratic winds. Convective activity should taper off through the evening, with skies clearing overnight. VFR will then prevail under mostly clear skies for the remainder of the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 209 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* The chance of showers or perhaps a few thunderstorms continues this afternoon and evening.

* Temperatures continue to warm through the week and peak on Thursday.

* Dry weather expected through the week.

DISCUSSION...

A lot of virga is out there this afternoon, although a few surface stations have reported light rain around the Warner mountains. We should see shower coverage expand across the region as the ground hits the convective temperature. Thunderstorms also aren't out of the question. The latest NBM forecast has a 10% chance of cloud to ground flashes in western Siskiyou County. In addition, the Cascade and Warner mountains also have a 10% chance through this afternoon and evening.

The 500mb trough bringing us this rainy weather will move eastwards overnight and skies will clear out in it's wake. The exception as always is along the coast where fog and some lower stratus will build overnight.

High pressure will begin to build on Monday and we'll see temperatures trend slightly higher, yet they will remain slightly below the climatological normals for this time of year. Not much happening otherwise on Monday with the typical northwesterly flow picking up in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to move higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, although remain near the climatological normals for late September.

By Thursday, we'll likely see a thermal trough build in over southern Oregon with some lighter easterly flow off the Cascades. Temperatures will warm up into the mid 80's and perhaps hit 90 here in Medford given the pattern. Temperatures along the coast should also be fairly warm with highs in the 70's between Wednesday and Thursday when we have this lighter offshore flow.

Finally, towards the end of the week into the weekend, we're watching a cutoff low in the Pacific, or perhaps a short wave moving through the state of Washington. Frankly, there is a lot of variance on the synoptic features around day 7, although the large majority of ECMWF ensemble members are keeping things dry over southern Oregon and northern California.

Overall, the low impact weather is expected to continue through the week with seasonal late September weather.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.