textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Discussion

AVIATION...23/18Z TAFs

Satellite and observations show passing mid-/high clouds east of the Cascades with lingering low clouds (IFR/LIFR ceilings) in the Umpqua Basin at Roseburg and in the western Rogue Valley near Grants Pass. Medford has VFR conditions with 4kft-06kft ceilings.

The system arriving from the north could allow for just enough mixing today to improve conditions to VFR at the locations with low clouds/fog right now. This is forecast to clear into this afternoon.

The next area of concern will be low clouds/fog tonight, especially for west side valleys. This TAF cycle includes MVFR visibility for the Roseburg area between 05Z-14Z, but there is a lower confidence for fog development. However, that will mean it will be a cold night ahead with temperatures falling to the 20s west of the Cascades. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period for the other TAF sites, including Medford, as well. -9

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 241 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026/

DISCUSSION...The ridge that has been lingering over the forecast area for the better part of two weeks will finally start to break down, or at least move farther west, today. A weak shortwave is passing over the area this morning, and some very spotty and very light returns are appearing on radar east o the Cascades, but very little of this, if any, is making it to the ground. The shortwave will, however, help to mix the atmosphere up a bit, weakening the valley inversions, and hopefully allowing some of the more fog-prone areas to clear out this afternoon.

Where cloud cover exists this morning, low temperatures have been warmer than previous days. Where the skies are clear, mainly to the south over northern California, lows remain colder than normal.

The pattern continues to change with a strong surface high building east of the Cascades and east to west wind flow developing during the day. The air will become fairly dry with some cooler air trying to settle into the valleys tonight and Saturday morning. This is the day of higher concern for colder overnight lows with the potential for freezing temperatures along the coast. The NBM has a 50% chance of temperatures <32 around North Bend on Friday night and Saturday morning. Therefore, we decided to issue a freeze watch for the immediate coast in Douglas and Coos Counties. The main impact is for outdoor plants and some outdoor plumbing that could freeze overnight.

High pressure will rebuild by Sunday as a short wave approaches the Oregon coastline around Sunday night. This wave will come in dry, although we should see some cloud cover and perhaps a stray shower along the Oregon coastline around Monday afternoon and evening.

The big change is anticipated around Wednesday as a cold front pushes into Oregon and northern California. Ensemble data is showing precipitation hitting the region with the heaviest rainfall to our south. There is still a rather large number of members that keep us dry and not much if anything falling in southern Oregon and northern California. So while there could be some light snow in the mountains, it's not looking great for accumulating snowpack right now.

Overall, the dryish trend continues, although the weather pattern will likely become more progressive by next week.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, January 23, 2026... North winds will gradually increase today. Seas are steep and hazardous to small craft south of Cape Blanco, especially beyond 10 nm from shore. Winds will gradually diminish and shift to the northeast, but also spread to areas north of the Cape on Saturday. Conditions are expected to improve early next week. A more active pattern is expected to follow later next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for ORZ021.

Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ023- 024-026-029>031.

Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ024.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-370.