textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather with seasonable temperatures expected today.

* On Monday, temperatures trend warmer. Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds and dry conditions will bring elevated fire weather concerns for the Scott and Shasta valleys and areas east of the Cascades.

* Tuesday, ahead of an approaching low, expect a chance for showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms.

* Wednesday, cold front will bring cool temperatures across the area. Rainfall is expected west of the Cascades, with lower chances east of the Cascades. Cool conditions and lingering showers are expected Thursday and possibly into Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

An upper trough centered to the northeast will shift eastward today, bringing zonal flow over the region. Expect near normal temperatures and typical afternoon breezes. A low gradually moves south Monday nears the coast Monday evening. Ahead of this low expect a shortwave ridge to develop over inland areas with temperatures trending warmer. Gusty south to southwest winds ahead of the low along with dry daytime humidities are likely to bring critical fire weather conditions to the Scott Valley, Shasta Valley and areas east of the Cascades. A fire weather watch is in effect for these conditions.

A trough remains off the coast on Tuesday while a stronger low in the Gulf of Alaska moves off the coast of British Columbia. Temperatures trend cooler on Tuesday and increasing moisture combined with daytime instability will allow some showers to develop and a slight chance (15-20%) for thunderstorms. This will mainly affect areas from the Cascades west and into northern Klamath county. The slight chance for thunderstorms is centered over western/central Siskiyou county northward into the Siskiyous and Cascades. Strong, gusty winds are expected in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades. Humidities may remain low enough to bring elevated fire weather conditions (due to gusty wind and low humidities) to portions of the east side. See the fire weather discussion below for details.

Then, Wednesday into Wednesday night, the low shifts southward and brings a front into the region. This will bring a fall like pattern with much cooler temperatures, areas of rainfall and gusty southwest winds. Daytime highs could be 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms. Rainfall is most likely from the Cascades west 60-90% chances Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. These chances are lower east of the Cascades, with Klamath Falls having 60% chances of measurable rainfall on Wednesday night while 30-50% chances get into Lake and western Modoc counties. Significant rain is possible along the coast with the National Blend of Models forecasting 1.0 to 2 inches of rain across Curry County and 0.75 to 1.0 in of rain across Coos County and northwest Douglas County. Rainfall amounts are lower inland with around 0.3 to 0.75 inches in the Umpqua Basin, Illinois Valley, Crater Lake area and far western Siskiyou County. Rainfall near 0.25 inches or less is forecast across Jackson County, in the Grants Pass area, and over northern Klamath county. Elsewhere, expect lighter amounts (trace to 0.10 inches).

Behind this front, on Thursday, upper trough around a low pressure system lingers over the area, bringing a cool and showery pattern to the region. Friday into Saturday, models showing high variability on the track of this low with some indicating the low will weaken but remain over the region while others favor it lifting northward. Overall, expect some lingering chances for showers and generally cooler than normal temperatures to remain in place through Saturday.

AVIATION...30/12Z TAFs

VFR prevails across the area. Local LIFR/IFR are expected early this morning near North Bend (KOTH), clearing to VFR around 17z. VFR will otherwise prevail, with gusty afternoon winds along the coast.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Sunday, August 30, 2026

Gusty winds spread northward today, with steep seas extending into the waters north of Cape Blanco. Conditions will improve Monday and Tuesday ahead of midweek to late week active weather and unsettled seas. As a front moves into the area, gusty south winds and steep to very steep seas are possible on Wednesday. Winds are expected to lower Thursday and northwest swell builds into the area.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 AM PDT Sunday, August 30, 2026

Today will be a relative lull in activity as a ridge briefly builds in with warmer temperatures and lower minimum humidities, but weaker winds. As a trough approaches from the west, conditions are then likely to reach critical levels Monday in the Scott and Shasta valleys and east of the Cascades due to gusty south to southwest winds and dry humidities. A fire weather watch is in effect for portion of FWZ 280 (Scott Valley) and FWZs 281, 284, 285, and 624.

A trough dominated pattern will follow for the remainder of the week with a cooling trend and increasing chances for rain. On Tuesday, a low nears the coast and moisture combined with daytime instability will allow for some showers to develop, especially from the Cascades west. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms centered along the Cascades and Siskiyous and into western/central Siskiyou County. Strong, gusty winds are likely east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. Guidance indicates gusty winds and low afternoon humidities will approach critical fire weather conditions across southeastern portions of FWZ 624, 625 and eastern 285.

Then, the pattern trends wetter and cooler as a front moves into the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rain is likely, especially from the Cascades west and into northern Klamath and northern Lake counties. Gusty winds may affect most the area on Wednesday but expect higher humidities. With a trough over the area, chances for showers linger on Thursday and possibly into Friday and Saturday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for ORZ624.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for CAZ280-281-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.