textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry weather remains in the forecast.

* Marine stratus looks to develop tonight, with this layer possibly reaching into the Umpqua Valley.

* The warmest temperatures of the forecast period are expected on Saturday and Sunday, reaching about 10 degrees above seasonal norms across the area.

DISCUSSION

A stable atmospheric pattern will bring seasonal temperatures and dry conditions across northern California and southern Oregon today. For today, that will bring valley temperatures in Jackson, Josephine, and Siskiyou counties to the high 70s to low 80s. Coastal cities, the Umpqua Valley, and east side valleys and basins look to be in the mid 70s.

High pressure looks to settle in the southwestern United States in the middle of the week, building a resilient ridge that will bring slowly increasing temperatures through the week and weekend ahead. Zonal flow over the top of the ridge will keep daytime highs about 5 degrees above normal levels for Wednesday through Friday. A slight northwest orientation to mid level flow could push marine stratus into the Umpqua Valley on early Wednesday morning, but this will have little impact on the day's conditions.

Going in to the weekend, current deterministic imagery shows high pressure pushing farther north and over the area. This looks to nudge temperatures to about 10 degrees over normal levels. The Oregon coast has forecast highs in the low to mid 70s. The Umpqua Valley looks to be in the mid 80s while other west side valleys will approach or exceed 90 degrees. To the east, valleys and basins could see temperatures in the high 70s to mid 80s through the weekend. These highs could approach record levels in some areas, especially in areas in or near northern California.

Long-term meteograms do show some divergence beyond Sunday, with GFS ensemble guidance showing a steady cooling trend next week while the ECMWF keeps warm temperatures in the forecast. Precipitation expectations remain slight beyond day 7, with about 10% of ECMWF members expecting some amount of coastal precipitation while the GFS keeps things dry into mid October. -TAD

AVIATION...29/12Z TAFs

While satellite imagery shows some development around North Bend early this morning, so far these clouds have not spread over the terminal. A slight chance remains, but sunrise would clear anything that manages to develop. Marine stratus is expected to develop north of Cape Blanco this evening or early tonight and bring IFR/LIFR levels, with guidance suggesting that stratus could reach into the Umpqua Valley near the end of this TAF period and bring MVFR ceilings.

Other areas look to remain at VFR levels through the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 400 AM PDT Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Steep seas will continue south of Cape Blanco at least through Wednesday evening, and possibly through Friday evening. Winds and seas ease slightly overnight into Tuesday morning. But, west- northwest swell will build and north winds will increase again south of Cape Blanco on Tuesday afternoon. Wind speeds will reach a peak on Wednesday evening.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.