textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will prevail most of this week.

* Rain chances increase Thurs/Fri (20%-60%) with isolated thunderstorm possible (10%-20%) along and west of the Cascades.

* The front will be mostly dry east of the Cascades, but will produce gusty southwest winds.

* Cooler temperatures and dry conditions are then expected through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A closed upper-level low is passing to the south of the forecast area today, placing southern Oregon and far northern California under the deformation zone between it and the main belt of Westerlies to our north. This will keep conditions quiet across the area today, with plenty of high level clouds and some localized cumulus buildups, mainly over higher terrain. There is a very low chance one of the cumulus could deepen enough to form a light shower, and an even smaller chance for a thunderstorm to develop, however, given that high clouds will likely limit daytime heating and destabilization, neither of these is likely to occur.

As the low opens and exits to the east, we will experience mostly zonal flow over the forecast area for the next several days, which will lead to generally quiet weather with very little impacts or hazards. The next upper-level trough arrives offshore by early Thursday morning, then it and an associated cold front will move onshore late Thursday into early Friday This will introduce a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms along and west of the Cascades, but the front will be mostly dry and will mainly produce gusty winds to the east of the Cascades. There is still some uncertainty about the exact timing of these features, which could make a difference in thunderstorm chances. Current model trends suggest instability will be very meager, so we are not expecting much in the realm of thunderstorm chances, but light rainfall seems likely, especially along the coast and coastal mountains.

Thereafter, temperatures drop as the trough pushes eastward. For example, Medford may only reach the upper 60s for a high on Friday with temperatures struggling to reach the lower 70s through the weekend. In other words, expecting a cool down later in the week to below normal temperatures in the wake of the upper trough across the region.

AVIATION...21/18Z TAFs

Marine stratus persists over Brookings and in the Umpqua Valley, with IFR/LIFR levels present at the start of the TAF period. VFR levels are present over North Bend for the moment, with expectation of stratus clearing over other areas by early afternoon. A deeper marine push is expected this evening into early Tuesday morning. This push looks to bring levels along the coast and into the Umpqua Valley to MVFR/IFR levels, with chances of MVFR ceilings reaching into the Rogue Valley. These ceilings could last through the TAF period but clear later Tuesday morning.

For other inland areas, VFR levels with normal diurnal winds are expected the TA period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Monday, September 21, 2026

Gusty north winds will maintain steep seas south of Cape Arago through this evening with very steep seas developing this afternoon as winds increase south of Brookings. Winds ease some on Tuesday and conditions will improve north of Cape Blanco as seas become less steep and transition to swell dominated. However, steep to very steep seas likely persist south of Cape Blanco through Tuesday evening. Conditions gradually improve Wednesday into Thursday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.