textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* A dry cold front will bring slight cooling today, but also breezy to gusty winds, highest east of the Cascades resulting in critical fire weather conditions.

* A thermal trough pattern Sunday into mid next week will bring gusty north to northeast winds to the Umpqua and Illinois valleys, and the Oregon coast/coast range mountains. Sunday will probably be the coolest day for most areas, except SW sections as offshore flow develops.

* Temperatures increase early next week, with a warm Chetco effect (80s in Brookings) Monday and the hottest temperatures inland Tue/Wed, then remaining above normal into next weekend. Smoke impacts farther west Monday-Wednesday? * Thunder chances remain very low (less than 5%) for the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Low pressure just off the coast of British Columbia will send a mostly dry cold front across the area today. From the Cascades west, temperatures should drop back to near or even slightly below normal levels (about 5-10F lower than yesterday for most inland areas). Satellite imagery is showing a deeper marine push into the Umpqua Basin (and also at the coast), so the day will begin with lower stratus there. There is even a chance at some light rain/drizzle at the coast, but this is most likely from around Reedsport northward, up around Florence and/or Newport. We still expect very dry air to persist east of the Cascades despite a slight cooling trend. With the increase in wind speeds expected ahead of the front, critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop this afternoon/evening. See fire weather discussion below for more specifics.

After today's frontal passage, a thermal trough pattern will set up beginning Sunday and continuing into next week. Sunday will remain cooler than normal for most and probably will be the coolest day of the stretch for all but southern and western sections. This pattern will bring stronger offshore (NNE) winds to areas west of the Cascades, especially the Umpqua Basin, Illinois Valley and the coast/coast ranges. This will mean a better chance for winds aligning with the Chetco River and a good shot at a warm Chetco effect in Brookings on Monday (highs in the 80s). But, what it also will mean is that smoke from wildfires burning to our north and east will have a better opportunity to spread southwestward. We may begin to see the effects of the shift in winds with a higher likelihood of smoke impacts early next week across SW Oregon and NorCal. The thermal trough will likely push inland Tuesday/Wednesday, so it will warm up quite a bit over the interior with triple digit heat making a return to the Rogue Basin. Highs well into the 90s are probable in Klamath Falls. In terms of heat risk, we are seeing more widespread moderate heat risk values, especially Tue and Wed. This means that those sensitive to heat or without adequate cooling/hydration systems could have adverse health effects. Even so, this is climatologically the hottest time of the year, so heat headlines.

Uncertainty persists in the guidance beyond the middle of next week. Most of the uncertainty stems from just how amplified (or not) the ridge over the SW becomes. As has been the case for most of the summer, there have been disturbances in the northern branch jet that have come over the top. And, there are indications that this could again be the case later in the week into next weekend, which would allow temperatures to modify/cool down a bit. However, there are solutions that also show a more amplified ridge, resulting in continued hotter weather. If this scenario pans out, we could be looking at potential heat related products. We'll continue to monitor this. The good news is we still are not seeing any chance for thunderstorms in the next 7 days (probably even longer). Models continue to maintain a dry atmosphere with all the monsoonal moisture remaining bottled up across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. -Spilde

AVIATION...01/12Z TAFs

A solid marine push this morning is resulting in a deep layer of MVFR marine stratus over most of the coastal waters, along the coast and into NW Douglas County. These ceilings are impacting North Bend and will push into Roseburg for a few hours this morning. Local IFR ceilings are possible as well, and some of the coast range mountains will be obscured for a while. Ceilings lift and conditions improve to VFR for all areas by late this morning. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with gusty winds this afternoon/evening, strongest east of the Cascades. Some low clouds are likely to make a reappearance tonight at the coast and north of the Umpqua Divide, but probably won't be quite as widespread as this morning. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, August 1, 2026

Northerly winds increase today with steep seas building south of Cape Blanco by evening. A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast, bringing stronger, gale force winds and very steep seas Sunday afternoon through Monday evening south of Cape Blanco with gusty winds and steep seas spreading north of Cape Blanco. We've upgraded the Gale Watch to a Warning south of Cape Blanco and introduced a Small Craft Advisory north of Cape Blanco to highlight these hazards. North winds and steep seas should ease a bit at midweek, but at least remain hazardous to small craft. -Spilde

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, August 1, 2026

A dry cold front will move through the area today. Humidity from the Cascades westward should be high enough to preclude fire weather headlines despite an uptick in afternoon/evening N-NW winds. The same can't be said for areas east of the Cascades in Oregon, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect (SE portion of FWZ 624 and all of FWZ 625). Humidity will remain low there, dropping into the single digits over the deserts this afternoon and in the low teens closer to the Fremont National Forest. We expect westerly winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph in these areas. Winds should decrease a bit Sunday.

But, a strengthening thermal trough in northern California and SW Oregon will result in a period of offshore N-NE winds for the coast ranges and mountains of western Siskiyou County beginning Sunday night. As with most thermal troughs, the first night usually coincides with the strongest winds, with model 850 winds in the 20- 25kt range. Not the strongest thermal trough, but this should result in some gusty winds (25-30 mph) at night at the usual locations in vicinity of the thermal belts. Aligning with the Chetco River, these winds will descend resulting in compressional warming/drying all the way to the coast near Brookings on Monday. Look for elevated fire risk there with highs in the 80s, low humidity and gusty NE breezes. On the second night (Monday night), poor RH recoveries are expected across all SW Oregon and northern California upper slopes/ridges. Some guidance is showing RH only recovering into the low 20s Tuesday through Thursday. It still could be breezy, but probably not as much as Sunday night. It goes without saying that this pattern will produce hot, dry afternoons as well Tue/Wed, so we'll be keeping an eye on the winds to see if the stronger breezes combine with the low humidity for wind/rh headlines. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356- 376.