textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...29/12Z TAFs

Areas of low clouds and/or fog along the coast and in portions of the Umpqua Basin through around 17Z; otherwise, VFR will prevail across the forecast area through this evening. Some cumulus will develop over the East Side this afternoon and evening, but precip chances are low. Marine stratus and fog probably returns to the coast tonight into Thursday morning, especially north of Cape Blanco. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 333 AM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026/

KEY MESSAGES... -Upper ridging builds into the area today resulting in above normal warmth through late week. -Above normal temps likely continue this weekend. -Upper trough forms into a closed low offshore Friday. -Shower and t-storm chances increase Friday/Saturday, peak Sunday/Monday as the low moves onshore into California. -Cooler temperatures Monday/Tuesday; showers/storms linger, especially Cascades eastward Tuesday. -Upper ridge rebuilds by mid next week.

DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will build into the area today. There is still a weak trough that will swing down east of the Cascades and this could lead to some cumulus over the East Side along with some virga, but precipitation chances are low (10% or less). Other than some low clouds for coastal valleys and the Umpqua Basin this morning, expect mainly sunny skies elsewhere today. For the area as a whole, high temperatures will be a few to several degrees higher than yesterday. With a thermal trough setting up in NorCal, we expect some breezy north winds along the coast in the afternoon/evening.

The ridge will move in overhead on Thursday and then push inland into the Intermountain West and the Great Basin on Friday. This will maintain the warmth in our area with high temps generally 5-15F above normal. We'd like to remind everyone that even when the air is warm, area waterways are still quite cold this time of year. Water temperatures are only in the upper 40s and 50s! So, always wear a life jacket, don't swim alone and have a flotation device ready just in case.

Meanwhile, an upper trough in the northeast Pacific will be "squeezed" southeastward along 130W as another strong ridge amplifies out near 140W. This will cause the trough to develop into a closed low off the PacNW Friday, which will settle southward and be offshore of the California coast this weekend. This will set up a "Rex block" (high over low) that will linger over the West into next week. Movement of weather systems in this type of regime will be slow. Areas farther to the north and closer to the upper high (northern Oregon and Washington) will largely maintain a warm, dry pattern. However, areas farther south and closer to the closed low offshore, will see a surge in moisture and instability. This could lead to a relatively active weather pattern down here with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This could begin as early as Friday afternoon/evening. Models are showing weak instability near the Cascades then, so there is a slight chance of late afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms there and also perhaps an isolated shower/t-storm near the coast range mountains. Moisture and forcing gradually increase this weekend, and peak Sunday into Monday as the low eventually moves onshore into California to our south. Currently, it still looks like Sunday and Monday feature the most widespread chances, including along the coast. Temperatures will cool down by Monday since we'll generally be in the cloudier, showery pattern. The focus for shower/t-storm activity shifts to east of the Cascades on Tuesday as the cut off low gradually shifts eastward.

Models then show upper ridging returning toward the middle of next week with the air mass warming again. -Spilde

AVIATION...28/06Z TAFs...Some low clouds and patchy MVFR is possible in the Umpqua Valley and along the coast tonight and early Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area for most of Wednesday. -Smith

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Wednesday, April 29, 2026....A thermal trough pattern will bring strong north winds through Saturday. North winds will reach peak strength during Thursday and Friday afternoons. The strongest winds and very steep seas are expected south of Port Orford this afternoon and evening, and are likely again Thursday afternoon through at least Friday evening. Meantime, seas will be steep elsewhere. Steep, fresh swell may linger while winds diminish and turn southerly Saturday night into Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for PZZ356-376.