textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* The western edge of a band of mid-level moisture will just clip far southeastern portions of Modoc and Lake counties this afternoon with a slight chance of showers.

* Temperatures trend cooler into Saturday, then are generally seasonable Sunday and Monday, with enhanced breezes Saturday afternoon, weaker on Sunday then seasonably breezy on Monday.

* A trough dominated pattern will follow with at least clouds and cooler temperatures. Rainfall chances are increasing Tuesday and will continue through latter parts of next week, especially for coastal and westside areas.

DISCUSSION

With preceding cloud cover, and the main band of moisture exiting the area, the probability of thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening in far southeast portions of Lake and Modoc counties was reduced to 5%. Otherwise, it is breezy this afternoon and mostly sunny, with high temperatures near normal.

The cooling trend will continue into Saturday as an upper level trough swings into Washington. High temperatures of a few to around 5 degrees below normal (in the upper 70s to lower 80s) will be common. Northwest to southwest Breezes will be at a similar strength to those of today, slightly enhanced by a few to 5 mph above typical afternoon strength, and strongest east of the Cascades.

Ridging is expected to follow ahead of the next trough during Sunday and Monday. Winds will be at a minimum, under the ridge axis, on Sunday, then breezy again on Monday.

The probabilities are increasing for our area to get a first taste of fall from Tuesday to Friday. This looks to be a trough dominated pattern with cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and occasional rain chances. The first of a few stronger lows is forecast to move down from the Gulf of Alaska and into the region late Tuesday into Thursday. There is some uncertainty in the ensembles with the timing, orientation and strength of these systems. Overall, the pattern favors increased rainfall chances, at least Tuesday morning through early Thursday especially from the Cascades west. There is significant variability in ensemble solutions on the amount of rainfall. So, we will continue to monitor this for the potential of light/moderate rain. For now, the offical forecast is for 48 hour totals of around an inch at the coast, a tenth of an inch to a half inch for the west side and northern Klamath County, and a trace to a light accumulation for the Shasta Valley and the remainder of the east side.

Instability is weak so there are only low chances for thunderstorms but given the variability in the forecast, there is potential for this to change. Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest changes.

AVIATION...28/18Z TAFs

IFR/LIFR stratus and fog at the coast and Coquille Valley is lifting and eroding this morning. The condition will improve to merely lingering patches of IFR/LIFR, mainly near Brookings in the late afternoon. Also, coastal areas will have gusty north breezes (~20-25 kt) this afternoon/evening.

Coastal IFR/LIFR will return this evening near Brookings, and from Cape Blanco northward, and continue overnight into Saturday morning. Meantime, the progression of stratus into the Umpqua Valley tonight will be more typical, slower and less extensive than it was last night. This includes patchy MVFR possible near Roseburg early Saturday morning, after 12Z.

Otherwise, conditions will remain VFR with gusty south to southwest afternoon winds (20-30 kt) this afternoon for areas east of the Cascades and in NE California. Also, isolated showers/thunderstorms could graze far SE sections of Modoc and Lake counties this afternoon/evening.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, August 28, 2026

North winds are increasing, with steep seas south of Port Orford. These steep seas and gusty winds will persist through the weekend, with steep seas extending into the waters north of Cape Blanco from late Sunday morning into Monday morning. Winds will be strongest each afternoon and early evening through Sunday. Conditions are likely to improve Monday into Tuesday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.