textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Increasing shower activity this morning from the Rogue Valley eastward, quickly diminishing from west to east this afternoon/evening. Highest rainfall amounts (02.5"-0.50") expected across southern/eastern-most areas.

* Dry cold front late this afternoon and overnight - brings gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon/evening, with gusts 25-35 mph continuing overnight over terrain.

* Dry conditions Friday through much of Sunday; clearing skies Friday night could bring Frost/Freeze conditions to West Side Valleys Saturday morning.

* Low pressure late Sunday into Monday could bring light precipitation along and west of Cascades.

DISCUSSION

Low pressure continues to swirl over California, sending mid-high clouds into the region along with areas of showers along and south of the OR/CA border. Meanwhile, an incoming trough can be seen on satellite approaching the Pacific Northwest. This trough will sweep the California low eastward later today and bring a dry cold front through the region overnight into early Friday. High pressure moves eastward on Friday, lingering just offshore through much of the weekend. Low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska dampens the ridge and moves into the Pacific Northwest late Sunday into Tuesday.

The forecast remains on track for wrap around moisture to bring increasing shower activity later this morning and afternoon. Shower bands will move from southeast to northwest this morning, pivoting to west to east by this afternoon. Most guidance brings precipitation as far west as the Rogue Valley this morning before storm motion transitions this afternoon. Precipitation amounts this far west are likely to be fairly light, few hundreths at best. The highest precipitation amounts continue to be focused across eastern Siskiyou/Klamath/southern Lake Counties and much of Modoc County this afternoon where rainfall amounts could reach between 0.25"- 0.50" (higher end amounts most likely in favored upslope areas of the Warners).

Precipitation chances drop off quickly from west to east as the day progresses today, with showers lingering across the East Side into the evening before this system finally gets swept eastward by a kicker trough from the northwest tonight. This kicker trough will bring a dry cold front through the region late this evening and overnight into Friday morning. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected later this afternoon as this front moves through the region. Since this front is coming through later in the day and overnight, winds won't be quite as strong as if there was full daytime mixing, but gusts of 25-35 mph will be common across the higher terrain tonight, especially along and east of the Warners/Winter Ridge. This front will be dry for the most part, but guidance is showing some light rain potential along the north facing slopes of the Siskiyous and the Rogue-Umpqua Basin. Otherwise, gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Friday will be the main impacts from this incoming front. Expect some chilly temperatures Friday morning (mid-upper 30s West, mid-upper 20s East), but ample cloud cover should limit frost conditions for West Side Valleys.

Dry conditions return by Friday morning as high pressure settles just offshore where it will linger through much of the weekend. Quiet, low impact weather is expected through the weekend. High temperatures trend a few degrees cooler for Friday (low 60s West/low- mid 50s East), then warm by around 5-10 degrees for Saturday and Sunday. With clear skies expected Friday night, low temperatures Saturday morning will be the coolest of the forecast period and this will be the best chance for frost/freeze conditions in the West Side Valleys.

Guidance is finally coming into better agreement with a trough next week. There is general agreement on a weaker than previously advertised trough coming from the Gulf of Alaska that will dampen the offshore ridge and move into the Pacific Northwest sometime late Sunday through Tuesday. There are location differences in the trajectory of this trough. The EC camp is a bit farther south than the GEFS, which would bring slightly higher precipitation chances/amounts. Either solution favors the higher chances (20-40%) along and west of the Cascades centered on Sunday night into Monday. Precipitation amounts are currently forecast to be fairly light again, which isn't exactly the best of news considering the dry October we've had so far. Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler for early next week and low impact weather looks to continue through much of next week.

AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs

Coverage of showers is expected to increase from southeast to northwest this morning, then diminish late this afternoon/evening. Expect lowering ceilings and increasing terrain obscurations, but with conditions expected to remain VFR for terminals east of the Coastal Range. IFR ceilings will persist along the coast north of Cape Blanco, with LIFR conditions expected south of Gold Beach this morning. Expect conditions to improve to at least MVFR later this morning/afternoon as another system approaches the coast today. Gusty west to northwest winds (15-25 kts) will develop this afternoon and persist over the terrain through tonight.

MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Thursday, October 22, 2026

A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast through Friday morning. This will maintain gusty north winds across area waters, strongest this afternoon and south of Gold Beach. Areas of steep seas will persist this morning, spreading to all areas by this afternoon. Very steep seas are expected to develop beyond 5 nm from shore later this evening and overnight. Conditions improve north of Cape Blanco on Friday as north winds ease, but hazardous conditions will persist in the south. Improvement in all areas is expected over the weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-370-376.