textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Rainfall continues today, and 0.25"-0.50" is forecast west of the Cascades (except the immediate coast) between 11 AM and 11 PM today. Forecast CAPEs are still within the 100-150 J/kg range this afternoon and will be the highest between 12-5 PM today. Areas near the Rogue Valley will have the highest chances (20-30%), and the strongest storms will have cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty outflow winds near 20-40 mph. The forecast of remaining showers with a drying trend is still on track, and there will be warmer conditions Thursday and through the weekend.

AVIATION...21/18Z TAFs

A low pressure system moving inland over the area will bring showers through the TAF period, especially to northern California counties and areas west of the Cascades. Flight level generally remain at VFR or MVFR through the TAF period across the area for area terminals, with periodic changes possible as activity develops and dissipates.

Chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast for areas along and west of the Cascades this afternoon into the early evening. Chances are highest over western Siskiyou County and into Josephine and Jackson counties. Thunderstorm chances ease tonight and snow levels drop to 4500-5000 feet into early Wednesday morning. The Cascades and Warner Mountains look to see the most consistent snowfall in this TAF period, while rain and snow showers over area valleys and basins begins to trail off.

A passing rain or snow shower can bring locally low ceilings and visibilities as well as obscure elevated terrain. Thunderstorms can also add lighting and erratic gusty winds. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 900 AM PDT Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Seas will continue to trend lower today as a low pressure system gradually moves inland. Increasing northwest swell follows Wednesday into Thursday, decreasing Friday into Saturday. Additionally, north winds will increase over the waters Thursday and Friday. This pattern may result steep seas and gusty winds, especially for the waters south of Cape Blanco Thursday evening into Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 418 AM PDT Tue Apr 21 2026/

UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.

DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Showers and chances for thunderstorms today. * Additional showers on Wednesday. Gusty winds east of the Cascades Wednesday afternoon. * Showers taper off Thursday * Dry and warm Friday, followed by a chance for showers on the weekend.

An upper low will remain over the region through Wednesday. This will bring a cool and showery pattern. Shower activity this morning will continue to be focused over Siskiyou County and west of the Cascades. A winter weather advisory remains in effect through late this morning for the higher mountains above 5000 ft near the Trinity Alps, south of Callahan. Showers will continue during the day but expect mainly light snow.

With the upper low moving inland today, expect an unstable and showery pattern to develop today. Widespread showers are likely across the area. Models also continue to support a chance for thunderstorms today with a 15-30% chance from the Cascades west and a 10-20% chance east of the Cascades. Chances for thunderstorms (5-10%) decrease on Wednesday. Winds will be breezy today. Then, on Wednesday, ensembles continue to support gusty winds (gusting to 25-40 mph) east of the Cascades.

The low will move eastward Wednesday night with diminishing showers on Thursday. Models and ensembles show warm and dry conditions develop on Friday.

On the weekend, a weak upper trough is forecast to move down from the north and into the region. However, there is still variability on the track of this low which will impact how much shower activity is expected. The National Blend of Models indicates a slight chance for light precipitation, mainly across the mountains and east of the Cascades (15-30% chance) with a 10% chance for showers in valleys west of the Cascades and a 10-20% chance for showers along the coast. Temperatures may trend cooler, especially on Sunday, if this trough settles over the area.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.