textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

The Pineapple Express is arriving at the station. Radar and satellite imagery this afternoons shows a deep plume of clouds and precipitation stretching from the tropics near Hawaii all the way to the coast of southern Oregon. The onset of rain occurred a bit earlier today than expected, and as a result, is already dumping plenty of rain along the coast. A broad area between Coos Bay, Reedsport, and Eugene has received well over an inch of rain in the last 12 hours, with between 2 and 2 and a half inches recorded at the North Bend airport.

This rain will continue along the nearly stationary boundary through this evening, then intensify tonight a a surface low develops offshore, and the front finally slides southward through the area. Widespread forecast rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected along the coast with locally up to 6 inches in the favored coast ranges of Curry County. Up to an inch of rain is expected for many of the inland West Side valleys, with 1 to 3 inches along the Cascades and mountains and south slopes of Siskiyou County, and between a quarter of an inch and an inch across the East Side.

The incoming warm air will present another concern, and that is snowmelt. With snow levels already rising to above 6000 ft and expected to rise further to 8000 ft (reports at Mount Ashland and other stations above 6000 ft of around 40 to 45 degrees as of this writing), warm rain will fall on recent snows, adding to the runoff in all area creeks, streams, and rivers. These drainages are likely to rise rapidly during this event with nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways during periods of heavy rain. Significant rises on main stem rivers and flashier creeks are also expected. Given that rivers are still running fairly low for this time of year, river flooding potential is a bit lower than usual, but there is at least a low probability of some flooding, especially in the Coquille Basin, and along the more flashier streams such as Deer Creek in Roseburg and Little Butte Creek in Eagle Point.

As a result of flooding concerns, and with river forecast levels approaching action stages along the Coquille River and many other smaller local streams, an Areal Flood Watch has been issued for much of the area west of the Cascades, with Flood Watches issued for the Coquille River at Coquille, and the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point. These are in effect through the period of heaviest rain and a bit after, through at least Tuesday night.

The main belt of moisture pushes off to the south late Tuesday, with rain diminishing at the coast by Tuesday afternoon and the rest of the area by Tuesday night. Showers then continue into Wednesday as onshore flow persists, but amounts by this time will be light. Snow levels will lower to about 3000 to 4000 ft Wednesday as the front passes and showers taper off, so some light snow is possible at elevation, but no significant winter impacts are expected.

Upper level ridging returns to the area for the latter half of the week, with dry and warmer conditions expected Thursday and Friday, and potentially into Saturday. Area valleys, however, will likely see strong inversions with fog and low clouds overnight and into the mornings, especially west of the Cascades. The latest model runs are showing some signs of a warm front passing through the area Saturday, but confidence is timing is low, and rainfall amounts should be on the lighter side. Updates will follow as needed.

AVIATION...23/18Z TAFS

A stationary front offshore is keeping moderate to heavy rainfall over the marine waters and along the coast this morning. Ceiling and visibility reductions are widespread over there with MVFR and occasional IFR in heavier rain. Farther inland, ceilings are generally VFR from the interior west side valleys over to the Cascades, into NorCal and the East Side, though local MVFR ceilings are present near Mt. Shasta City. These ceilings are also causing higher terrain obscuration. This afternoon through Tuesday morning, the front will move onshore and this will cause the rain to shift inland along with the lower conditions and terrain obscuration. Expect widespread MVFR and local IFR with occasional visibility reduction into the 1-3 mile range. Overall, south winds could be gusty at times along the coast, over higher terrain, in the Shasta Valley and over the East Side. There is a risk for low-level wind shear too overnight into Tuesday morning for some terminals, especially along the coast.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Monday, February 23, 2026

Low pressure will move northeastward along a stalled front tonight bringing southerly gales south of Cape Blanco into Tuesday morning. Seas in those areas peak at 12-16 feet at 9 seconds. To the north, winds and seas will be slightly lower, but still chaotic and hazardous. Periods of moderate to heavy rain area wide will lead to greatly reduced visibility at times. Winds shift to northerly as the front moves onshore Tuesday and Tuesday night with gradual improvement. Then, a period of calmer conditions is expected Wednesday into Thursday with lighter north winds and seas in the 4-7 foot range. A steep northwest swell (8-12 ft, 14-15 seconds) arrives Friday into Saturday.

HYDROLOGY

A warm sourced atmospheric river, commonly referred to as a Pineapple Express, is arriving in the area now, and will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall now through Tuesday. Current rainfall forecasts show widespread amounts of 3 to 5 inches along the coast with locally up to 6 inches in the favored coast ranges of Curry County. Up to an inch of rain is expected for many of the inland West Side valleys, with 1 to 3 inches along the Cascades and mountains and south slopes of Siskiyou County, and between a quarter of an inch and an inch across the East Side.

Compounding the hydrological concerns, the warm rain is expected with snow levels well above 7000 feet, which will result in snowmelt and therefore higher than expected runoff in area watersheds.

Small streams and creeks are likely to rise rapidly during this event with nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways during periods of heavy rain. Significant rises on main stem rivers and flashier creeks are also expected. Given that rivers are still running fairly low for this time of year, river flooding potential is a bit lower than usual, but there is at least a low probability of some flooding, especially in the Coquille Basin, and along the more flashier streams such as Deer Creek in Roseburg and Little Butte Creek in Eagle Point.

As a result, several flood watches have been issued. An areal flood watch for smaller rivers, creeks, streams, and urban areas has been issued for most areas west of the Cascades. This includes the Chetco River, where flows are expected to reach as high as 45 Kcfs, or just below 20 ft, and the Scott River near Fort Jones, which is expected to surpass 12 feet, but remain below flood stage. Additionally, River Flood Watches have been issued for the Coquille River at Coquille and the South Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point. Again, the official forecast has both locations remaining just below flood stage, but high flows are expected.

We will continue to monitor the forecasts and update accordingly. Additional Flood Watches or Warnings may be issued by the National Weather Service as conditions warrant.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Wednesday evening for ORZ021>024-026.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ030-031.

CA...Flood Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Wednesday evening for CAZ080-081.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ081-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ356- 376.

Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-370.