textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Model agreement is excellent today through Monday night, with a high probability of near normal to slightly above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather through Thursday. We say mostly dry because there will be a series of very weak to weak disturbances brushing past our area in a northwest flow aloft during the next week. Timing looks to be mainly before 10 AM this morning for rain chances from the first one, with the highest probability from the coast and across northern portions of Douglas and Klamath counties. Precipitation will be focused north of our area. Otherwise, the main aspect of our weather will continue to be night and morning valley low clouds and fog/freezing fog. An increase of high clouds today may hinder the clearing of the valley low clouds. Inversions look to be stronger tonight with more extensive coverage of the valley fog/freezing fog on Saturday morning.

A second/similar trough is expected to swing through from the northwest Saturday night into early Sunday. With the next forecast update this afternoon, it is possible that an areal expansion and/or increase in slight chance precipitation probabilities may be warranted, with the 06Z GFS as a noteworthy portion of the minority of wetter solutions showing a dusting to an inch of snow for the Cascades and Warner Mountains after 7 PM Saturday night until around sunrise Sunday with a snow level falling from around 5000 feet to 4200 feet msl. In the wake of this disturbance, an episode of building west-northwest long period swell is likely Monday into Monday night. Please see the section below for the description of a risk of sneaker waves at area beaches.

The third very weak, and possibly weakest, disturbance is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. The highest probability is for an increase of upper level clouds and a brief episode of virga.

More active, more broadly impactful weather is possible late next week, as early as early Friday. But, there is also a sizeable contingent of weaker solutions that continue the current theme. For now, we will go toward a compromise, with a mention of a chance of mainly west side precipitation on Friday.

AVIATION...28/12z TAFs

A slight chance to chance of showers will continue this morning for the coast and into northern portions of Douglas and Klamath counties northward. A mix of IFR and MVFR will accompany the showers. Otherwise, patchy valley IFR will persist through around 18Z this morning, particularly in the Rogue Valley including Medford.

Improvement to VFR is expected from late morning into early evening. But, areas of valley LIFR/IFR are expected to follow this evening into Saturday morning in the Umpqua/Rogue/Illinois and lower Klamath basins.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, November 28, 2025

Gusty southwest winds will diminish this morning. Meanwhile, northwest swell is also diminishing, but seas will remain high and steep through this afternoon. Conditions will continue to improve tonight through Saturday, but northerly winds then increase and remain gusty early next week.

Conditions hazardous to small craft could return south of Cape Blanco on Sunday. Meanwhile, a long period swell (peaking around 6 to 9 ft at 16 to 19 seconds) builds in the waters Monday into Tuesday, which could maintain advisory level conditions early next week into Wednesday.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF

Updated 300 AM PST Friday, November 28, 2025...Buoy guidance shows the potential for a high sneaker threat beginning Monday morning and possibly continuing through early Tuesday morning. Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 21 to 22 seconds early Monday morning, which coincides with the incoming high tide that is anticipated by 8 am PST Monday morning. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. As confidence increases in this potential, we may need to consider a Beach Hazards Statement to highlight this threat.

This swell is only expected to peak at around 7 to 10 ft at 16 to 18 seconds Monday night, so we currently don't anticipate any high surf conditions at this time. If you have plans to visit the coast next week, particularly on Monday, please be aware of this potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to the beaches for another day. Sneaker waves run up significantly farther on beaches than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean! /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.