textproduct: Medford

Update AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...19/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail across the region with gusty north to northwest winds that will ease after sunset. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region through the TAF period. There could be localized areas of LIFR/IFR in fog/low clouds in portions of the Umpqua and Coquille Basins, but impacts to any terminals should be shortlived. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 216 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...

Key Points:

* Minor impacts continue the next several days - Return of well above normal temperatures tomorrow - These above normal temperatures continue through the weekend

* Drying trend continues through the extended forecast - No signal for precipitation in the forecast at this time

* Elevated fire weather concerns this week - Combination of dry, breezy, and warm temperatures - Fuels fortunately keeping the overall fire threat low/moderate

Further Details:

A ridge of high pressure will maintain its position over the Pacific Ocean through the extended forecast. While occasional troughs pass over the northern tier of this high pressure, these will mainly impact Washington and southwest Canada. As a result, a dry and stable airmass is likely to persist this week. The position of the high and an area of low pressure inland will result in a strong pressure gradient over the forecast area (thermal trough) through this stretch, so expecting diurnal breezy afternoons each day. That said, it doesn't appear any hazards will result from these wind speeds.

As we maintain the dry airmass and breezy afternoons, there will be at least an elevated threat for fire weather conditions each day. However, fuel conditions per fire agencies reveal the overall fire weather threat will remain low to moderate. Given the low RH values and breezy winds each afternoon, people should exercise caution with any outdoor activities that could cause sparks or flames. Bottom line is that fire season was declared early this year, so these precautionary actions should already be in place, but its especially important when we have these elevated fire weather days.

Looking ahead, there is a chance for a change in the airmass around Memorial Day that could bring precipitation chances across the forecast area. This is technically outside of this forecast package, but something we will keep an eye on given the lack of precipitation lately. However, models are split on these chances so this is nothing of a "slam dunk" scenario.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, May 18, 2026...A thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas over the coastal waters much of this week. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through this stretch, very steep seas of 10-12 ft are most likely south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Ensembles indicate winds will strengthen Wednesday through Friday with a potential (35-55% chance) for gales (gusts) across portions of the southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.