textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable temperatures are expected across the area for the week ahead. Dry air aloft looks to keep meaningful precipitation out of the forecast.

* Gusty winds in the Scott and Shasta valleys this afternoon and east of the Cascades this afternoon through Saturday are bringing elevated fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

An upper trough around a cutoff low over the Pacific and high pressure centered over the Four Corners area will guide area conditions today into Saturday. With this orientation, seasonable warmth continues across the area. Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring drier air, keeping thunderstorms out of the forecast. As the cutoff low tries to move eastward and the high stays in place, an increasing pressure gradient will bring gusty afternoon and evening winds. This pattern will help to keep wildfire smoke from accumulating in the area. For today, the position of the cutoff low looks to line up with the Shasta and Scott valleys, bringing chances for afternoon gusts to approach 35-40 mph today. Similar gusts are possible east of the Cascades as well, with terrain in southern Lake and Klamath counties seeing gusts up to 45 mph. This combination of dry conditions and gusty winds is bringing elevated fire weather concerns for these areas, addressed by a Red Flag Warning in place for this afternoon and evening. While other west side valleys are not included in the Warning, concerns are certainly still elevated. Ongoing dry conditions and gusts of 15-20 mph are still capable of helping a fire spread quickly. Please see RFWMFR or the FIRE WEATHER discussion below for more details.

The cutoff low starts to push northeast over the weekend, bringing slightly cooler temperatures that will continue into early next week. The Red Flag Warning continues through Saturday evening east of the Cascades. Winds for the Shasta and Scott valleys ease slightly on Saturday afternoon, taking those areas out of the Warning but by no means eliminating fire weather concerns. The Warning may be extended through Sunday for areas east of the Cascades, depending on expected wind gusts. Current guidance shows gusts easing slightly on Sunday, but high-res data available later today will aid in determining the need for the warning to continue.

With the cutoff largely out of the picture by Monday, the rest of the forecast period looks uneventful. A general pattern of high pressure over the southwest/midwest United States and low pressure systems passing over Washington state/Canada shows little change. Comparing the GFS and ECMWF deterministic outcomes, the only real disagreement is the ECMWF imagery shows the high pressure's influence nudging closer to the area and keeping temperatures at seasonable levels. GFS imagery shows those passing lows keeping the ridge around the continental high flatter, resulting in temperatures dropping just below normal. Precipitation looks to remain a non-factor through the forecast period. -TAD

AVIATION...24/12Z TAFs

Marine stratus is bringing IFR ceilings to North Bend early this morning. This layer bay clear out briefly this afternoon before returning later this evening. Inland areas look to remain VFR through the TAF period, with gusty winds developing this afternoon and evening. The strongest winds will be east of the Cascades. These winds will also ease later this evening. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Friday, July 24, 2026

Relatively calm conditions and low, mixed seas continue today. South winds increase Saturday ahead of a dry cold front, possibly approaching small areas of small craft advisory levels. Winds shift back to north and west Sunday, but wind wave dominated seas probably hold off until the middle of next week. -Spilde/BPN

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 AM PDT Friday, July 23, 2026

Ongoing dry conditions (illustrated by areas of single-digit daytime RHs) and forecast gusty winds are bringing critical fire weather concerns through the weekend. This concern will be the most constant east of the Cascades, where wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph for most areas and up to 45 mph over terrain in southern Lake and Klamath counties are expected in the afternoon and evening of today and Saturday. Areas of moderate to poor recoveries in easternmost Lake and Modoc counties are also possible. A Red Flag Warning is in place for this afternoon through Saturday evening for FWZs 623, 624, 284, and 285 for gusty winds and low RHs.

With winds having a more southerly orientation today, critical conditions are also expected in western Siskiyou County, including the Scott and Shasta valleys. In these areas, afternoon and evening wind gusts may reach 35 to 40 mph today. A Red Flag Warning covers FWZs 281 and parts of 280 this afternoon and evening. Winds in these areas ease somewhat on Saturday, reducing the need for a RFW but still supporting elevated concerns.

While Warning criteria is not expected to be met in the Rogue and Umpqua valleys, dry daytime RHs and periods of gusty winds in the 15-20 mph range can still present concerning conditions.

Critical fire weather conditions might continue into Sunday east of the Cascades, although the areas of concern are notably smaller. Winds ease going into early next week, with some marginal improvement in daytime RHs possible. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ624-625.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280-281.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.