textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

/Issued 248 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026/ Mostly dry weather is expected through Friday, except for a few isolated showers (10% chance) this morning and rain developing along the coast late Friday. Then a front onshore Saturday followed by a low approaching the coast will bring areas of light to moderate precipitation and areas of gusty winds this weekend. This is followed by increasingly stronger, wetter and colder disturbances early next week as a deep upper trough moves into the region bringing widespread precipitation, lowering snow levels and areas of gusty winds.

Key Points:

* Rain: Light to moderate rainfall starting this weekend - Moderate rainfall at times along/near the coast but lighter and more variable for amounts and timing for inland areas - Uncertainty on how much rainfall occurs inland due to variability on track of the low offshore.

* Snowfall This Weekend - Light snowfall with snow levels ~4000-5500ft expect for a potential for locally moderate snow in the Mount Shasta region late Sunday into Monday (mainly above 4500 ft).

* Wind This Weekend - Gusty, advisory level winds possible on Saturday for the southern Shasta Valley

* Snow Mon-Wed: Moderate to High Impacts - Potential for widespread hazards for mountains/passes - Moderate to heavy snowfall for elevations above 4000 ft and in the Mt. Shasta City area - Snow levels lower each day Monday through Wednesday - Eventually down to around 2000-2500 ft Tuesday then potentially down to 1800 ft on Wednesday - Tuesday: 10-20% chance for snow down to 1000-1500 feet in valleys west of the Cascades (Trace - 0.5") - Confidence is only moderate in the snowfall forecast as variability remains in the track of this low/trough

* Rainfall Mon-Wed - Rainfall Monday - Wednesday with moderate to locally heavy rain at times along the coast - Not expecting flooding but water ponding on roads could be hazardous

* Wind Mon-Wed - Breezy to gusty winds across northern California and eastside with a potential for gusty, advisory level winds

Dry weather is likely today into Friday. A trough develops offshore on Friday and weak front moves onshore late Friday and Saturday. This will bring areas of generally light precipitation, mainly west of the Cascades. Moderate rain may occur along the coast. Breezy to gusty winds (gusts 25 to 40 mph) may develop in the Shasta Valley as well as the east side.

The trough offshore will deepen late Saturday and a low will approach the coast of northern California Sunday into early Monday. This will bring chances for additional rain and mountain snow. The exact position of the low will be the main factor in how much precipitation we receive with best chances for areas across Siskiyou county and from the Cascades west. Precipitation will be mainly light with a potential for moderate rain and mountain snow in the Mount Shasta. Breezy to gusty winds (gusts 25 to 40 mph) may develop again in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades.

Early next week, models and ensembles continue to show a potential for a deep upper trough and low to move into the region. This will bring chances for heavy to moderate snow across the mountains, in the Mount Shasta City area and east of the Cascades. Lowering snow levels from 3500-4500 ft Monday, down to 2000-2500 feet Tuesday and then down to around 1800 feet Monday may bring snow impacts to lower passes and some valleys west of the Cascades. There is a potential for snow levels to lower down to 1000-1500 feet. For the period from Monday 4pm through Wednesday 4pm, the National Blend of Models indicates a high chance (60-95%) for snowfall of 6 inches for mountains above 4000 feet from the Cascades west and in the Mount Shasta City and surrounding area. The NBM also supports a high chance (60-80%) for snowfall amounts of 12 inches or more in higher elevations (above 4500 ft) in the Cascades and mountains in western and southern Siskiyou County. There is a medium chance (40-60%) for up to 12 inches of snow in the Mount Shasta City area during this period. As the upper trough moves inland Tuesday and Wednesday and snow levels lower to around 1800-2500 feet, there is a potential for light to moderate snow down to lower passes. The NBM supports a 40-60% chance for an inch or more of snow across lower passes on I-5 near Canyon Mountain and Sexton Summit and a 40-50% chance for an inch or more of snow at Hayes Hill, Camas Mountain, in the southern Illinois Valley, for areas in and around Ashland, and for portions of the lower Klamath River valley in western Siskiyou County. Tuesday night into Wednesday snow levels may drop down as low as 1000-1500 ft with a 10-20% chance for light snowfall down to lower valleys such as Medford, Grants Pass and Canyonville.

In addition to snow, gusty winds are possible early next week with a potential for advisory level winds in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades. Gusty winds combined with snow may bring very low visibilities at times.

Confidence is moderate for the potential of significant snow impacts in the mountains and Mount Shasta area and low to moderate to lighter snow impacts down to lower passes. Ensembles continue to show variability in the timing of this system and in the position of the low/trough which will factor into how low snow levels drop and how much precipitation we receive. A more westward or southern track (represented by about 25% of the ensembles) would favor lower snowfall amounts and higher snow levels. We will continue to monitor this upcoming storm and update the forecast with additional details as confidence increases.

AVIATION...12/18Z TAFs

Some IFR and LIFR ceilings persist across the region this morning. We'll see these ceilings lift later this afternoon as the boundary layer mixes out. Some fair weather cumulus should build in the afternoon with a low chance of showers during the late afternoon. With more clear skies tonight, we should see fog build into the Umpqua Basin and some of the smaller valleys west of the Cascades later tonight.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PST Thursday, February 12, 2026

Conditions will continue to gradually improve as winds ease and seas lower today. Seas are expected to remain below advisory levels through early Thursday evening. Then a moderate long period, west-northwest swell will bring the return of steep elevated seas Thursday night through Saturday morning.

A pattern change looks to bring active weather late Friday into the weekend with increasingly stronger disturbances expected early next week. Periods of gusty winds are likely but gale conditions are not expected. Those winds and incoming swell could keep steep seas through Wednesday. Please stay tuned to future forecasts for the most recent expectation of sea state changes through this active period.

BEACH HAZARDS

Updated 100 AM PST Thursday, February 12, 2026...An incoming west to northwest long period swell will produce a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast from late Thursday night into Friday afternoon.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther up beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the cold open waters of the Pacific Ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 PM PST this evening through Friday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 PM PST this evening through Friday morning for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ370-376.