textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Marine stratus has spilled into the Coquille valley this morning with some mid level clouds moving in from California as an upper level low spins off the coast of California. The main weather feature today will be the afternoon thunderstorms east of the Cascades. The latest SPC HREF has a bullseye right over Lake County with a 40 to 50 percent chance of lightning within 20km of a point. Wind shear is about 20 knots out of the south west. Forecast soundings show the typical inverted V soundings in southern Oregon with mixing up 4km above ground level, so gusty winds to 40 knots seem probable in these thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms could continue well into the evening and early overnight hours, although they should start to die around 8Z Monday. The upper level low weakens and just a bunch of vorticity from that low eventually moves in by Monday. With ample heating and enough moisture, thunderstorms remain in the forecast east of the Cascades on Monday afternoon. Again, probabilities for cloud to ground lightning are around 50 to 70 percent within Lake County, which is pretty high compared to what we usually see. Those probabilities drop off significantly farther to the west and south.

By Tuesday evening, a 500 mb trough will push into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring some stronger northwest flow to the region. Some data shows a dissipating cold front moving closer to the coast. In any case, temperatures should trend a few degrees cooler on Wednesday with Medford trending 5 degrees cooler based on the latest forecast. With this upper level low pushing inland, isolated showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out on Tuesday evening. The ECMWF ensemble shows spotty QPF around most of Central Oregon, which could clip northern Lake or Klamath Counties before conditions dry Wednesday.

As for the remainder of the week, we remain in a zonal flow pattern with temperatures right around seasonal normals for this time of year. For reference, Medford's normal high is in the upper 80's for late July and we're forecasting highs in the lower 90's. The extreme forecast index is also suggesting a rather mundane week weather wise compared to the typical July. Monday is the only day of interest with convective available potential energy(CAPE) EFI values around 0.7 in Lake County. That suggests there could be more CAPE than usual for early July in Lake County.

-Smith

AVIATION...05/12Z TAFs

Marine stratus has spread into the Coquille valley this morning with LIFR ceilings at Brookings and IFR ceilings expected at North Bend this morning.

Inland terminals generally will remain VFR through the TAF period with some thunderstorms in south central Oregon this afternoon.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Sunday, July 5, 2026

Gusty north winds will persist through Monday with very steep seas around 10 feet at 7 seconds expected south of Cape Blanco and beyond 10 nm from shore. Isolated gale gusts are possible south of Gold Beach and within 20 nm or shore Sunday evening. Winds lower Monday into Wednesday but steep west swell is possible.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 1200 PM PDT Saturday, July 4, 2026

There is a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Sunday east of the Cascades, and Monday along and east of the Cascades and over the Klamaths and Siskiyous. There is a possibility that some of these showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two linger on into Sunday night/early Monday morning over Modoc and Lake counties. There should be enough moisture to produce rain within the cores of these thunderstorms, but a few more high based storms, or those along the periphery of the drier air, could produce very little or no rain at the surface. Along with lightning, gusty and erratic winds will be a concern for any storms that develop (especially the drier ones).

Otherwise, high temperatures remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, and afternoon breezes remain typical to slightly enhanced during the next week. This will result in very dry conditions, generally just shy of critical wind and humidity thresholds, especially Tuesday and Wednesday as a dry cold front passes through the region. Another dry frontal passage is possible next weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.