textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

The forecast has been update to issue a new Winter Storm Watch for elevations above 5000 feet in western, southern and eastern Siskiyou County during late Sunday morning through Sunday evening, preceding the existing Winter Storm Watch for western, southern, and eastern Siskiyou County late Sunday night through late Tuesday night. Snow levels will be near 5000 feet during Sunday with about 65-70% of GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members showing a substantial snowfall spreading northeast into Siskiyou County. The other third of solutions keep the bulk of precipitation during Sunday into Sunday night farther to the south, out of our area.

Also uncertain is the extent to which precipitation intensity diminishes while snow levels nudge lower from 4000 feet to 3000 feet during Monday into Monday night, with light to locally moderate rain in southwest Oregon likely to be a main feature of our weather. Another main feature will be gusty south winds in the southern Shasta Valley of around 30 to 40 mph (just below Advisory strength) for much of the period from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening. It will also be windy east of the Cascades.

Potentially of more widespread impact (more likely at an Advisory rather than Warning level of strength) will be the next disturbance bringing higher precipitation intensity and lower snow levels around late Monday night through Tuesday night. Snow levels look to generally fall from 3000 feet to around 2000 to 2500 feet.

The pattern looks to remain active and cold Wednesday into the end of the week but precipitation has the highest probability of being light and showery.

Please see the previous discussion below for further details.

AVIATION...14/06Z TAFs

Rainfall ahead of an approaching trough is bringing MVFR to IFR levels to North Bend. Levels along the Oregon coast will likely fluctuate through the TAF period as showers continue. Showers moving into Douglas County are expected to bring MVFR levels to the Umpqua Valley into Saturday morning. While showers are expected to ease on Saturday afternoon, ceilings lingering in the Umpqua Valley may keep levels at MVFR or IFR.

Other inland areas may see scattered showers through the TAF period, but persistent activity is not expected. Snow levels will generally remain at 5000-6000 feet, keeping snowfall to the highest elevations. Rain or snow showers are capable of locally lowering ceilings and visibilities below expected levels as well as obscuring elevated terrain. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Friday, February 13, 2026

A long period swell around 14 to 16 feet at 14 to 16 seconds is moving through our waters this evening. These conditions will be hazardous to small craft through Saturday morning and linger in the outer waters until Sunday afternoon. Winds don't pick up significantly as this front eventually stalls in the outer waters.

A weak low will likely develop in our waters late Saturday night into Sunday bringing a quick shot of southerly winds. Overall, unsettled weather will persist this weekend with conditions that are hazardous to small craft. Conditions are likely to improve late Sunday into Monday. But, seas then build again and are likely to become high and steep on Tuesday.

.Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs

DISCUSSION...Relatively quiet weather is expected through much of the weekend. An upper level trough is approaching the region this afternoon, bringing some increased cloud cover with most precipitation off to the north for now. There are some light returns on radar moving onshore this afternoon, but observation sites haven't reported any measurements yet. There could be a few drops through this afternoon and early evening, but dry conditions are expected for most locations for the remainder of the day.

Energy digs into an evolving trough tonight into Saturday that settles just off the coast of northern California by Sunday. As this pattern progresses, it will push a front onshore late this evening and overnight and the chances of measurable precipitation will increase this evening (from 20-30% to 60-90%) along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. This front will stall along the coast into the day Saturday, and not make much inland progress. This results in precipitation chances dropping to around 30-50% south and east of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide. Rain amounts are a bit tricky since the front will be weakening in response to the energy digging offshore and the development of low pressure off the NorCal coast. 0.25-0.50" seems like the most likely amount, with up to around 1.00" (coastal areas) where rain is most persistent through Saturday evening. But here in Medford/Ashland, only a hundredth or two is currently forecast. The low spinning up offshore will cause the front to lift back to the north as a warm front late Saturday and Saturday night. This should maintain snow levels around or above 4500 feet through Sunday. Southerly flow will increase Saturday into Sunday and this will focus precipitation closer to the low along the coast and into the usual areas of NorCal, in western Siskiyou County and the upslope region around Mt. Shasta. Breezy southerly winds will pick up in the Shasta Valley Saturday and continue into Sunday. Mid-level flow and pressure gradients at this time don't quite support wind advisory levels, though gusts to 40 mph are possible.

Up until this point, winter impacts are fairly minimal with snow levels hovering around 4500-5000 ft and not much precipitation making it inland. That changes late Sunday into Monday, however, as low pressure starts nudging eastward and the front offshore gets pushed inland Sunday night into Monday. This is when we expect winter weather impacts to increase across northern California. The base of the trough, and the bulk of the energy/moisture looks to be directed into California, but a corridor of moderate to occasionally heavy upslope precipitation will remain directed into portions of NorCal, and especially the Mt. Shasta region. In coordination with our neighbors to the south, we've gone forward with with a Winter Storm Watch for all of southern and eastern Siskiyou County (Mt Shasta City Region) and for elevations above 3000 ft in western Siskiyou County starting Sunday night and going through early Wednesday morning. Lighter snow will fall to the north over the mountains (including the Cascades), but amounts look light at this time. We considered the need for a watch for the Cascades and Kalmiopsis Wilderness, but impacts north of the OR/CA border don't really start adding up until later in the day Monday and into Tuesday when snow levels are dropping. We'll hold off on any headlines north of the border for now, but look for updates in the coming days.

Additional energy from the north dives southward late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a deep/cold trough just off the OR/WA coast, allowing for colder air to filter into the region. Some of that cold air will move in over SW Oregon and this will bring about more widespread impactful winter weather with snow levels dropping as low around 2000 feet (maybe even 1500 feet or so) for the usual spots west of the Cascades (Hayes Hill/Camas Mt). Anytime we get an air mass this cold, there is potential for snow at the valley floors and since the cold air mass will hang around for a while (Tue-Fri), there will be multiple opportunities. A lot will depend on timing of precip and just how sustained it is. Given that the trough looks to be overhead, it could be a scenario where it's a showery airmass that brings periods of quick and spotty accumulations. And, given the mild pattern we've been in for the last month, the ground is quite warm, so nighttime and morning hours will be the most likely times for accumulation at the lower elevations. Aside from the West Side Valleys, winter weather impacts will increase across the Cascades, east of the Cascades as well as elevations generally above 2500 ft west of the Cascades, including the Kalmiopsis Wilderness region, especially as the flow becomes more westerly Monday into Wednesday. If the current forecast pans out, we'll likely be considering Winter Weather Advisories for areas east of the Cascades as well as the Scott/Shasta Valleys in additions to potential Winter Storm Watches/Warnings for the higher terrain of the region. If you have travel plans Monday through Wednesday of next week, it's best to check in frequently for updates as confidence increases in the finer details of the upcoming pattern.

Here are some probabilities of 72 hour snow accumulations from the latest NBM for Monday 4pm through Wednesday 4pm:

* Mountains above 4000 feet from the Cascades west: 60-95% for snowfall of 6 inches or greater.

* Cascades and mountains in western/southern Siskiyou County: 70-90% chance for snowfall amounts of 12 inches or more in higher elevations (above 4500 ft).

* Mount Shasta City area: 60-80% chance for 6 inches of snow, 40-60% chance for 12 inches of snow.

* Lower passes on I-5 near Canyon Mountain and Sexton Summit: 40-60% chance for an inch or more of snow, 20-30% for 3 inches.

* Hayes Hill, Camas Mountain, southern Illinois Valley, areas in and around Ashland, and portions of the lower Klamath River valley in western Siskiyou County: 40-60% chance for an inch or more of snow, 20-30% for 3 inches.

* Tuesday night into Wednesday snow levels may drop even lower, down as low as 1000-1500 ft (20-30% chance of this occurring Tuesday morning, increasing to 40-50% chance of this occurring Wednesday morning). 20-40% chance for light snowfall (<1") down to lower valleys such as Medford, Grants Pass and Canyonville both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ080-082-083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ370-376.