textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* High impact marine weather lasting through the weekend, including very large and dangerous surf conditions.

* Inland, low to moderate impacts from strong winds and rainfall; minimal impacts from snow occuring mainly above 5000 feet with another front tonight into Sunday. * A third front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday with lower snow levels; winter weather impacts likely for elevations above roughly 3500-4000 ft.

DISCUSSION

The next strong front is developing offshore. The associated surface low is deepening out and will be positioned near 50N and just inside 140W by this evening. This will send the strong front toward the coast. Models are showing a fairly strong low-mid level jet associated with this front and model probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 55 kt are high over the marine waters (>70%). As such, we have storm warnings out for that. The strongest winds when the front moves onshore later today and tonight will be at the coastal headlands. We could see maximum wind gusts of 70-75 mph at the Capes (Arago, Blanco and Sebastian). Pressure gradients aren't quite as high as we'd like to see for warning level events (peaking at -6 to -7 mb OTH-ACV this evening), but there was enough evidence for some of the more exposed coastal beaches and Highway 101 seeing wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, so we issued a High Wind Warning from 1pm this afternoon to 1am PST tonight. Farther inland, while we are expecting gusty southerly winds again in portions of the Shasta/Rogue Valleys, there is a more SW component aloft and the mid-level jet isn't quite as strong as Thursday night/Friday's front. MFR-RDD gradient also peaks at around -7 mb, about 2 mb less than previous front. This should keep the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface. Even so, we have wind advisories with gusts in the Rogue Valley up to 40 mph and up to 55 mph in the Shasta Valley. East Side areas will be breezy to windy at times as well tonight into early Sunday morning, but peak gusts should be around 40, maybe 45 mph. A last minute Wind Advisory has been issued for the area around Winter Rim, Summer Lake, and Valley Falls, where channeling effects can push wind gusts up to 50 mph. In terms of rainfall, QPF will be marginally lower than the last event, but still expecting around 1-2 inches along the coast, coast range mountains and into western/southern Siskiyou County, including the Mt. Shasta region/Dunsmuir/McCloud. Interior western valleys will see some downsloping in advance of the front, so amounts for Roseburg, Medford and Yreka will be muted, generally around 0.25". Cascades and Siskiyous should get around 0.50-0.75", while east side locations see 0.10-0.25", but perhaps not even 0.10" over the deserts east of Winter Rim.

Snow levels remain higher than 5000 feet for this event, so we're not too concerned about winter impacts, though there could be a few inches up around Crater Lake National Park and around the Ski Bowl at Mt. Shasta/higher area peaks. Perhaps some wet snow will occur overnight into Sunday morning around Diamond Lake, Willamette Pass or even Lake of the Woods.

Post-frontal showers continue Sunday night into Monday with moist onshore flow. Showers should diminish Monday night as the upper trough axis moves inland and then east of the Cascades by Tuesday morning.

Models then show yet another strong Pacific storm bottoming out sub 970mb around 45N and 135W late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring another front toward the coast with main impacts from winds and precip at the coast and into NorCal. The latest model runs this morning are showing a more southerly and offshore track of the surface low, now sliding south offshore and moving onshore somewhere in the vicinity of San Francisco. This supports lower snow levels, but places us more on the northeast side of the low, and therefore shifts the bulk of moisture towards northern California and the far southwest Oregon coast. The result is a higher chance for snow in Siskiyou County and points south, although several inches of snow are still possible for our Cascades and East Side as wrap-around moisture feeds into the area. We will also have to keep an eye on the Mt Shasta City area, where upslope precipitation enhancement could force snow levels lower, potentially down to the Interstate 5 corridor. Confidence is still lower than normal for this event, and the next one or two forecast cycles should help nail down the details. A Winter Storm Watch may be necessary with int he next 24 hours. -Spilde/BPN

AVIATION...14/18Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail for most areas this morning, with some lingering MVFR ceilings east of the Cascades and widespread terrain obsurations present west of the Cascades. VFR is generally expected to prevail for most areas today. Though somewhat weaker than the last front, another strong front approaches the region today, gradually moving inland late this evening and overnight. The main aviation impact will be due to another round of strong southerly winds that is expected area wide this afternoon and evening, with low level wind shear expected at all TAF locations. Ceilings will lower from west to east as this front moves inland, generally hovering around MVFR levels, though could potentially lower to IFR in heavy rain. Wind shear concerns will ease around 10- 12z Sunday morning. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PST Saturday, November 14, 2026

Very large long period west swell peaked overnight at 30 to 36 feet at 17 to 19 seconds. Peak observations at the buoys -- Buoy 46015 was 36' @19 seconds, 46229 was 33' @ 18 seconds and buoy 46027 was 33' @17 seconds. While swells will gradually lower in height today, these very high and very steep, dangerous conditions will continue.

A second strong front is expected this afternoon and tonight. Models indicate southerly wind gusts up to storm force (50-60 kt) with this front. Long period west swell combined with building wind seas will bring very steep and very hazardous seas of 19 to 24 feet at 10-14 seconds. Winds lower late tonight into early Sunday morning. Then, another long period swell arrives late Sunday morning through Monday afternoon with seas at 20 to 25 feet at 16 seconds.

Seas briefly diminish, then yet another strong front is likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Gales are likely with storm force winds possible again. This front will likely be followed by another high and long period swell on Wednesday, but does currently look to be lower than what's expected tonight.

Mariners are urged to remain in port during this period of extremely dangerous weather, secure vessels and continue to monitor forecasts for updates. -Spilde/BR-y

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1200 PM PST Saturday, November 14, 2026

Very large, long period westerly swell will maintain dangerous conditions along area beaches through Monday evening. A relatively lower period of breaking surf heights, though still hazardous, is expected today as surf heights gradually lower to 20 to 25 feet by this evening, then to 15 to 20 feet overnight into Sunday morning. Conditions worsen Sunday afternoon as breaking waves reach 25 to 30 ft and these dangerous conditions persist into Monday morning. Waves and surf remain hazardous Monday, but gradually diminish through Monday evening. -Spilde/BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for ORZ026-031.

High Surf Warning until 10 PM PST Monday for ORZ021-022.

High Wind Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.