textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

KEY POINTS...

* No significant weather impacts through the 4th of July.

* Near normal temperatures and enhanced afternoon breezes today.

* No precipitation in the forecast through Saturday. Afternoon cumulus buildups expected across northern California and East Side today...with a very low chance (5%) for isolated showers.

* Temperatures trend warmer Friday into the weekend, peaking around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

* Sunday into early next week - we continue to monitor the pattern for potential thunderstorms and/or days where gusty winds combined with low RH could result in critical fire weather conditions.

A broad upper trough remains in place today. This will bring continued mild temperatures to the area with highs near normal. Winds will be breezy to gusty in the afternoons and evenings for most locations. Low clouds this morning are expected mainly along coastal areas from Cape Blanco northward. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow, with a potential for more low clouds spreading into portions of the Umpqua Basin.

A weak upper level disturbance moving across the area late today may bring some cumulus build ups to mountains east of the Cascades and over northern California. Models and ensembles continue to favor dry weather though and only show very low chances (5%) for a stray shower or two, mainly in southern Siskiyou County or near Summer Rim.

The upper trough shifts northeast with lows continuing to track into Canada. Ensembles continue to show a weaker trough on Friday resulting in temperatures warming slightly above normal. Then, a high pressure ridge expands northward from the desert southwest late Saturday through Monday. This will allow temperatures to trend warmer. Highs are expected to be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for inland areas with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s across inland valleys by Saturday. Guidance is indicating high temperatures in the mid 90s on Saturday and Sunday for Medford and Montague and near 90 for Klamath Falls, Lakeview and Alturas.

The ridge axis will be centered just east of the area Sunday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper low will move towards British Columbia with a trough developing off the PacNW coast. This pattern will result in southwest to south flow aloft and will allow some mid level moisture into the area at times. Models continue to show the deeper monsoonal moisture and remnants of tropical moisture remaining to the south and east. The combination of some mid level moisture with weak instability and weak disturbances aloft may bring slight chance for isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday and moreso, on Monday and Tuesday. The chance for thunderstorms is low (10%) and mainly across northern California and from the Cascades east. This pattern will also bring chances for enhanced afternoon and evening winds, starting around Monday and Tuesday, which may combine with low humidities and result in critical fire weather concerns. Confidence is still low in the details and we will continue to monitor this period with additional model runs.

AVIATION...02/12Z TAFs

VFR conditions will continue through Thursday evening, with the exception of areas of areas of MVFR or IFR along the coast (mainly north of Cape Blanco) through this morning (around 17Z) and again Thursday night. Also, afternoon and evening N-NW breezes can be expected again Thursday, though slightly lower than the last couple of days with peak gusts of 20-25 kt along the coast.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Thursday, July 2, 2026

Gusty north winds will persist through the weekend and into early next week, maintaining steep to very steep seas. North winds up to gales and very steep seas will continue from Gold Beach southward overnight. Steep seas are expected north of Gold Beach where fresh swell will maintain advisory level conditions. Winds ease early Thursday morning and conditions improve across the waters, but steep seas and advisory level winds will persist south of Cape Blanco through the end of the week. Conditions could worsen again late Saturday into Sunday as northerly winds increase, possibly bringing another round of widespread advisory conditions and very steep seas south of Gold Beach.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.