textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Thunderstorm chances (10-20%) exist near central and southern Siskiyou County near Gazelle and Mount Shasta, this afternoon. * The next trough arrives Monday afternoon, bringing a chance of rain. * Monday will have strong westerly winds and 10-20% RH east of the Cascades.

There are cumulus clouds in Lake and Siskiyou counties. A 10-20% of showers in southern and central Siskiyou County near Gazelle and Mount Shasta exists this afternoon. Once again, these showers will bring less than 0.10" of rainfall for the aforementioned areas. Temperatures are on track to warm to the 60s/low 70s at the coast, 80s in the west side, and 70s/low 80s for east of the Cascades. If you're enjoying the ~10-15 degree above normal temperatures, enjoy it today because a cooldown will begin tomorrow.

Rain chances will return to more of Southern Oregon and Northern California Monday. The mean timing shows an arrival at the coast near 9-10 AM, with the median time for west side valleys not until 5- 7 PM. Forecast models are hinting at a line ahead of the cold front could develop, and this would bring rain chances between 10-12 PM for Siskiyou County and areas east of the Cascades. However, rainfall will focus on Curry and Coos counties, and more of Douglas County and along the Cascades. Between late Monday morning and Wednesday morning, near 0.25"-0.50" is forecast for the coast and portions of the Cascades near and north of Crater Lake. Between 0.05"-0.20" is forecast in west side valleys, with the Umpqua Basin forecast to see the higher end. Forecast CAPEs are not highlighting our area Monday, but values increase Tuesday afternoon, especially east of the Cascades and in Modoc County.

Gusty winds will begin later Monday morning and will continue through the late evening. Forecast 700 mb winds are near the 45-50 mph mark, resulting in 20-30 mph surface sustained winds in the afternoon during peak mixing. Probabilities for wind gusts to reach 45 mph Monday for portions of Lake and Modoc counties are nearing 40- 60% Monday afternoon. However, portions of southern Lake County into the Warner Mountains through Modoc County have a 60-80% probability for gusts of 45 mph. There is a possibility for a Wind Advisory for portions of Lake and Modoc counties including Summer Lake, Fort Rock, and Valley Falls. In the Rogue and Shasta valleys, winds are forecast to peak at 20-25 mph with gusts in the 30-35 mph range. As stated above the rain will move inland in the afternoon Monday, but the winds will impact outdoor Memorial Day activities.

Getting back to the temperatures, they will return to near normal by Monday before another drop brings them to 10-15 degrees below normal Tuesday (50s/low 60s). Showers remain Tuesday, and this will focus on locations west of the Cascades, especially in Douglas and Coos counties. The low will stall in the area, leaving us with cloudier skies and below normal temps through at least Wednesday. For now, the the low will move south Thursday, and this will rebound temperatures to normal or warmer. -Hermansen

AVIATION...25/06Z TAFS

LIFR/IFR will be widespread along the coast through Monday morning. Coastal ceilings will lift to MVFR, southerly winds will increase, and rain will develop as a cold front moves in late Monday morning. These conditions will then persist through Monday afternoon and night.

Elsewhere, expect continued VFR into Monday afternoon. Gusty west to southwest winds will affect all areas Monday afternoon, with strong winds (gusts 30 to 45 kt) east of the Cascades. As rain spreads into the area Monday afternoon and evening, expect mountain obscurations and local MVFR ceilings.

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, May 24, 2026

Winds and seas briefly diminish this afternoon and evening. Wave heights will be relatively low at around 5 to 6 feet at 13 seconds. A cold front will move through the waters on the morning of Memorial Day bringing rain and increasing seas. Seas will become steep again by Monday afternoon, with the strongest south winds expected to occur north of Cape Blanco. Steep, northwest swell builds in behind the front Monday afternoon and night, reaching a peak on Tuesday morning. These west-northwest swell dominated seas are expected to peak at around 13 to 17 ft at 14 seconds. Diminishing seas are expected to remain steep later Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

After brief, slight improvement, high pressure offshore and lingering low pressure inland are likely to bring increasing north winds on Wednesday afternoon with the strongest winds likely to occur south of Gold Beach. The gusty north winds and a long period west-northwest swell are likely to bring a return of steep seas Wednesday night into Thursday while a long period west-northwest swell builds.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM PDT Sunday, May 24, 2026

Most areas in Southern Oregon and Northern California will remain dry through the weekend, with the exception of a few showers/isolated thunderstorms in central Siskiyou County. Recent min RHs in the Rogue Valley, Northern California and east of the Cascades are in the 15-25% range. There is an elevated threat for fire weather conditions in the coming days.

Monday will bring the highest threat with stronger winds ahead of a cold front. Sustained southwest/west winds east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley will be in the 20-25 kt range. As it stands, there is still a 40-60% probability to see gusts reach 45 mph and this increases to 60-80% near Summer Lake, Lakeview and south near the Warner Mountains. There is more agreement that the cold front will arrive at the coast Monday afternoon, leaving an opportunity for peak heating and gusty winds to combine east. The latest reports on fuel conditions from fire agencies bring enough of a concern to issue a Red Flag Warning. This includes southeastern Modoc County and most of Lake County, and this cuts into eastern Klamath County as well. This will be in effect starting at 1 PM Monday, and will be in effect through 8 PM for southern Oregon locations and 11 PM for portions of Modoc County. Precautionary actions should continue, especially during this higher threat Monday. -Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday for ORZ625.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.