textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...06/00Z TAFs

All of the coastal waters and immediate coastline will experience IFR/LIFR in low stratus and fog into Thursday morning. Improvement is expected during Thursday, with areas of VFR in the afternoon, but also patches of IFR lingering through the day.

The thickness of smoke is expected to increase again tonight into Thursday under continued broad east flow. Smoke and haze has brought visibilities down to MVFR levels in areas, including the Umpqua Basin and Roseburg, and over portions of the East Side including portions of the Klamath Basin. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail, although smoke and haze continues, and may produce MVFR visibilities at times.

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Below advisory conditions continue through Thursday with lower wave heights due to north wind waves and fresh swell. North winds are expected to strengthen Friday through the weekend, with steep seas likely south of Cape Blanco. A new small craft advisory is in effect for Friday over the southern waters, and this will likely expand in coverage through the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 208 PM PDT Wed Aug 5 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot, dry, and breezy/windy conditions are the overall theme going forward - Heat Advisories and Red Flag Warnings in effect

* Triple digit highs are forecast today through at least Friday for many westside valleys

* Cooler and more seasonable temperatures start Sunday but areas of triple digit highs remain over western Siskiyou County

* Areas of smoke remain due to nearby wildfires

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...

The overall pattern for the next few days will be noted by high pressure aloft and a general southwesterly flow at 500mb. By this weekend, the flow becomes more zonal with a westerly component aloft, but the overall trend of hot, dry, and breezy/windy conditions will continue through the forecast period. Not seeing any noteworthy pieces of energy aloft that would lead to any precipitation as general high pressure looks to stick around. The very subtle pieces of energy aloft would only lead to an uptick in wind speeds if anything under the very dry airmass in place through early/middle next week.

Today the Record high temperature for Medford will be within reach as we are currently forecasting a high of 106 with a record of 106 (1972). Next two days it doesn't look like records will be reached given this time of year records being relatively high. That said, we are generally looking at temperatures around 5 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year the next few days. By Sunday temperatures will dip back down to near normal with these more seasonable temperatures going through early to middle parts of next week. The exception will be parts of western Siskiyou County where triple digits will remain possible each afternoon in the valleys through middle of next week.

Lastly, smoke will be the other factor as the diurnal wind pattern continues to spread areas of smoke across the forecast area. Smoke is very difficult to forecast with uncertainties involved in fire activity/suppression and exactly how much smoke will be introduced into the atmosphere. That said, expect areas of smoke until an airmass change occurs.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM PDT Wednesday, August 5, 2026... Ridging aloft and a thermal trough at the surface will produce persistent heat and near-critical to critical fire weather concerns through the week. Temperatures will peak at about 10 to 15 degrees above normal today and Thursday, before cooling slightly to more normal or just slightly above normal values by late this weekend and early next week.

Poor RH recoveries continue overnight, but should see some very gradual improvement through the rest of the week. Meanwhile, daytime minimum humidities will continue to be very dry, dropping into the low teens or single digit percentages in many locations, but these too should see some gradual improvement. Winds also remain breezy each day, with the usual diurnal pattern of breezy northwest winds in the afternoons, and broad east flow overnight. With these hot, dry, unstable, and windy conditions in the valleys during the day today, we are expecting to reach critical conditions across much of the area west of the Cascades. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Illinois and Rogue valleys, the Umpqua Basin, and western and south central Siskiyou County this afternoon and evening.

Some slightly improved conditions on Thursday will help reduce fire weather concerns a bit, but critical fire weather conditions are still expected in the Rogue, Illinois, and Applegate valleys yet again. A new Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas for Thursday afternoon.

As humidities improve, and temperatures start to cool Friday into Saturday, further Red Flags may not be necessary, but some locations may still get very close to critical criteria. We will also have to watch for the potential passage of a dry front Saturday, and another early next week, that could produce enhanced winds and additional concerns.

Outside of the Red Flag Warning areas, for the rest of this week conditions will still be hot, dry, windy, and unstable, with poor ridgetop and east side recoveries, but conditions should stay below critical thresholds.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ023-024-026- 028>031.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ616-617- 620>623.

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ620-622.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ080-081-083>085.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280-282.

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.