textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Persistent low pressure this week brings seasonably active weather with mainly low impacts. * Steady rainfall will taper off to showers from west to east this afternoon, with showers coming to an end for most locations by this evening. * Temperatures remain relatively steady through the week, fluctuating within a range from around 10 degrees below normal to near normal. * Excellent model agreement through Friday with occasional light shower chances, mainly for Coos and Douglas counties northward during Wednesday and also Thursday night. * Either a weak or very weak system moves inland on Saturday. Light shower chances on Saturday will be highest at the coast, possibly extending inland during the afternoon or evening. * High pressure will likely bring drying and modest warming for Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

A quick moving low pressure will continue tracking eastward through Oregon this afternoon. Steady rainfall will transition to showers from west to east this afternoon, gradually coming to an end for most locations by this evening. Snow levels will hover around 5000-5500 ft today, so if youre traveling through the Cascades this afternoon be prepared for periods of wintry weather. We dont expect much snow up that way, maybe up to 2 inches total by early this afternoon, but given its early in the season, its worth mentioning.

A broader area of low pressure, now over northern British Columbia, will retrograde slightly, tracking south-southwest toward Vancouver Island by Wednesday. The greatest shower activity in the onshore flow pattern will be focused north of our area. But, Coos and Douglas, possibly even into northern Curry/Josephine, counties should receive a measurable amount of showers under persistent cloud cover. Elsewhere, breaks in the cloud cover are expected and should allow for high temperatures to reach a few to several degrees higher than today.

The low will meander a bit farther south Thursday into Friday, with our region likely to be between shortwaves for a reduced chance of light coastal showers on Thursday. Compared to the GFS, the ECMWF does indicate a bit more low level moisture that would be sufficient to generate very light showers north of Cape Blanco. The blended 40% probability of rain and trace to a barely measurable hundredth or so is appropriate. The low is expected to remain offshore of Washington and northern Oregon, with a slight backing to more of a due southwest flow aloft on Thursday night through Friday night. This will keep the more favorable dynamics and deeper moisture aimed north of our area, and conditions on Friday should resemble those of Thursday.

For now, the story for Saturday is much the same as it was yesterday. Uncertainty increases a bit, enough to make the difference between whether light or very light showers remain confined to the coast, or extend to the Cascades with a slight chance possibly warranted for the east side. For the daylight hours, the probability will be highest for (and possibly limited to) the coast. The ECMWF suite of solutions indicates a higher probability of west side focused rain, a sharper trough, than the GEFS. This would mean around 0.05 to 0.10 inches for the coast rather than a trace to 0.02 inches. Toward sunset into the evening, rain chances could spread farther inland. This uncertainty is expressed by 20-30% rain chances being mainly west and north of Jackson County for the afternoon, ahead of a more widespread 20-40% chance for the evening.

Despite the differences in strength, models are in good agreement on slight rain chances lingering east of the Cascades late Saturday night ahead of ridging early next week. The ridge will provide drying and modest warming Sunday into Tuesday. From late day 7 through day 10, model uncertainty quickly increases with a near even split between whether ridging will linger into mid-week, or shift to the Rockies with a return to wet weather for the Pacific Northwest. /BR-y

AVIATION...27/18Z TAFs

A trough is moving through areas near and west of the Cascades late this morning with most of the precipitation occurring in SW Oregon. Light to moderate rain, MVFR ceilings and higher terrain obscuration will accompany this disturbance with local IFR conditions at times in areas of heavier precipitation. As this system shifts east of the Cascades this afternoon, precipitation will become more sparse/showery and conditions should improve. Conditions should mostly remain VFR in south central Oregon and far northern California, though may briefly lower to MVFR in any shower. Conditions should improve to VFR all areas this evening.

Late tonight into Wednesday morning, after 09Z, another weaker trough will bring light rain to the coast north of Cape Blanco with a similar mix of IFR/MVFR for Coos and Douglas counties. VFR will persist elsewhere, except there is a 20-30% possibility of IFR fog in some valleys around sunrise. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue through the week. Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength. A series of seasonably weak disturbances will produce the strongest northwest winds in the Washington and northern Oregon offshore waters, which will push fresh swell into the southern Oregon waters. Fresh west-northwest swell dominated seas will continue steep seas through late this afternoon. Seas become less steep this evening with fresh north-northwest swell persisting, along with a low west-northwest swell, through the week. The active pattern is expected to persist late in the week with slight, gradual improvement in conditions. The outlook is that a long period west- northwest swell may build from 2 ft at 21 seconds late Sunday to 6-8 ft at 17 seconds on Monday. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.