textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...15/00Z TAFs

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening from Siskiyou Mtns northeastward up the Cascades, but also including around the Rogue Valley/Medford. While most areas will remain VFR, visibility and/or ceilings may be locally reduced in the vicinity of thunderstorms, and gusty outflows of 40 mph could occur in any of the stronger cells.

Along the coast, marine stratus remains in place or at least will fill back into any locations that managed to clear briefly late this afternoon. Expect at least MVFR ceilings, but also local IFR/LIFR. The stratus will push back into Roseburg overnight, impacting the terminal with MVFR from 11-19Z before clearing to VFR Saturday afternoon. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 143 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonable temperatures, dry, and breezy conditions continue to be the overall theme going forward

* Isolated thunderstorm chances continue today and again Saturday with the main risk being lightning and gusty erratic winds

* Areas of smoke remain possible due to nearby wildfires

DISCUSSION...

The trough pattern over the western CONUS continues today with this general pattern continuing well into later parts of next week as southwesterly flow aloft dominates the region. There is now much better agreement in the upper levels well into later parts of next week which helps confidence in the overall forecast key messages.

For today, model guidance and satellite imagery show a shortwave entering the region. Vorticity maxima is on track to help support thunderstorm development this afternoon. The best chance will be for areas around Crater Lake and north through parts of this evening, and this would include northern Klamath and Lake counties as well. Similar to yesterday, we could see a cell or two go past midnight, but this may be more of shower activity versus thunderstorm activity.

For tomorrow, we should really be confined to areas around Crater Lake and north. Perhaps eastern parts of Douglas County in the morning, but the marine layer has been making good pushes overnight and well into Douglas County. This stable layer may likely inhibit any thunderstorm activity, but cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm Saturday morning before better chances start in the afternoon. Again, this would be mainly for areas around Crater Lake and north for the better chances tomorrow afternoon.

Sunday does look like a break in thunderstorm activity, but chances could return Monday. However, this would be very isolated again for northern parts of Klamath and Lake counties as our pattern remains in place. Tuesday and Wednesday we are going to be on the cusp of high pressure aloft, so it will depend on where the trough axis ends up. At this time, we do have 5-15% chances both days for thunderstorms. Thursday there is better agreement on a closed low developing within the overall trough pattern which could increase thunderstorm chances in future forecast, but at this time we only have around 5-15% for eastside areas.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

Marine stratus remains in place along the coast this morning with those low clouds continuing into most of the afternoon hours and pushing back inland this evening. IFR ceilings are most likely through the remainder of the day and overnight hours.

Inland areas will generally be at VFR levels through the TAF period. Wildfire smoke may briefly affect visibilities at Medford through the day depending on fire activity. Thunderstorms are expected across the region today. Medford(MFR) and Klamath Falls (KLMT) have a low chance of some storms in the vicinity of the runway. Thunderstorms shouldn't be all that strong given the available convective energy and should diminish by the evening and overnight hours.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Friday, August 14, 2026...Easing north winds and low seas will continue this afternoon and will result in sub-advisory conditions. These conditions are expected to continue through the weekend. Early next week, north winds could reach advisory strength with areas south of Port Orford being favored.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.