textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers this morning. Showers will become numerous this afternoon and evening, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Activity will be focused on Coos, Douglas, and northern Klamath counties and northward. Amounts of a quarter of an inch or less will be common.

* Temperatures remain 15 to 25 degrees below normal, with gradual warming through the weekend and into early next week.

* A few stray showers are possible Saturday (especially in our northern section again), but activity will increase again Sunday and be accompanied by a slight chance of thunderstorms. The probability will be highest in and near the Cascades.

* More seasonable September weather returns with a warming trend Monday into Wednesday.

* Higher uncertainty late next week, but with another episode of wet weather possible.

DISCUSSION

A broad, very slow moving upper level trough will continue to be the main driver of our weather through Sunday. This is the western lobe of a strong omega blocking pattern aloft over the contiguous United States, with a strong ridge centered over the Midwest. A shortwave rotating through the trough, and the aid of day-time heating will enhance shower activity today through this evening, with thunderstorms expected to be embedded. The highest probability will be in northern and eastern Douglas County, with activity possible across our area, but the probability of showers and storms tapering off to the south and east.

The main uncertainty for Saturday is the extent to which the trough will shift/wobble north-northeastward. The NBM and GFS are on the progressive side of solutions, with activity expected to be focused upon Washingtion and northern Oregon. But, the ECMWF and its ensemble members do support a few light, stray showers making it into Coos and Douglas counties. A decrease in cloud cover is expected to help bring warmer temperatures.

The trough is expected to wobble back southeastward on Sunday with a shortwave bringing an enhanced, increasing probability of showers and also isolated thunderstorms...with the highest probability near and in the Cascades. Another effect will be several degrees of cooling of high temperatures.

The trough is expected to finally kick eastward Sunday night into Labor Day with a break between systems, before the next trough tracks southward, offshore from California. This is expected to bring a few days of dry and warmer weather to our area, at least into Wednesday and likely through Thursday.

Late in the week, into next weekend, the interaction/track of the existing trough offshore of California, and another trough in the northern branch of the jet stream is highly uncertain. But, the probability is that a trough influenced or dominated pattern will bring at least modest cooling and at least sporadic shower chances.

AVIATION...04/12Z TAFs

Conditions early this morning are mainly VFR with scattered showers from the coast to the Cascades. But, there are areas of LIFR/IFR, and patches of MVFR at the coast, and in the vicinity of Klamath Falls. These ceilings will lift and break later this morning, with patchy MVFR lingering at the coast.

The probability of showers and thunderstorms will increase from late morning into the early evening, with the highest probability in Douglas County and northern Klamath County (10-30%). Shower activity will diminish later in the evening with ceilings lowering to LIFR/IFR again at the coast, and patchy valley LIFR developing (again likely near Klamath Falls after 12Z).

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday, September 4, 2026

Gusty south winds in the inner waters, and steep seas will continue through this morning while a surface low meanders just offshore of southern Oregon. Winds will diminish later Friday as the low shifts northeast and moves onshore. Winds will shift to the north Saturday morning, but remain light with relatively calm seas from the weekend into early next week. Steep seas are possible south of Gold Beach on Monday afternoon, where north winds will briefly increase.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT today for PZZ350-356-370-376.