textproduct: Medford

FIRE WEATHER

Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties have already seen lightning strikes this afternoon, verifying that the potential for thunderstorm activity into the evening is present. The highest chances for activity (20-30%) are in those areas as well as across Lake and eastern Klamath counties. Lower chances (10-20%) are present in western Klamath, western Siskiyou, and southeast Jackson counties. Some models indicate stray activity continuing into nighttime hours, but this is not generally expected.

Chances for thunderstorms decrease on Wednesday, with slight chances (10-20%) limited to northern Lake and Klamath counties and the Cascades north of Crater Lake. By Thursday, drier air aloft eliminates thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns for winds and low RHs are present for Thursday and Friday as gusty winds may develop across the east side while daytime RHs are critically low. For now these forecast winds do not reach Red Flag Warning thresholds, but that may change as details become clearer.

Normal diurnal winds return, with warm and dry conditions continuing through the weekend. Southerly or southwesterly flow aloft looks to continue early next week, indicating the possibility of additional isolated thunderstorm activity. While these chances have generally been east of the Cascades, a more accurate area has been harder to describe. Signals for significant thunderstorm activity are not currently in the forecast, but that may change as details improve.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.