textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Lather, rinse, repeat. The center of a strong upper level ridge is over Lake Tahoe this morning and this will maintain dry weather across all of SW Oregon and northern California through late this week. Satellite imagery is showing some fog/low clouds developing in the usual locations -- the Umpqua Valley as well as portions of the Illinois Valley and Grants Pass. Since the flow on the back side of the high is from the SSW, high clouds out over the ocean are occasionally moving overhead as well. The fog and low clouds will dissipate by late this morning. Sun and high clouds will prevail this afternoon. Mild conditions are expected each of the next 2 afternoons and record high temperatures will be challenged. Most record highs are in the 60s, but some west side valley records are in the low 70s. Of North Bend (71 in 1993), Roseburg (68 in 1958), Medford (74 in 1984) and Montague (67 in 1984), records are probably safe today. Of Mount Shasta City (67 in 1984), Klamath Falls (61 in 2018) and Alturas (65 in 1995), each stand a decent chance at tying or breaking their record high. The warmest air aloft will move in on Thursday, Feb 5th, so that'll probably be the warmest day. Still, that might depend on just how much high cloud cover there is. Of those 7 sites, a couple might reach or exceed their records. Klamath Falls (59 in 1995) is most likely. Here are the others -- Mount Shasta City (66 in 2007), Montague (68 in 1995), Alturas (64 in 2015), Medford (70 in 1963), North Bend (68 in 1926), and Roseburg (67 in 1941). The flow will become stronger from the south on Thursday as the ridge axis shifts into Idaho, Nevada and Utah down to the Four Corners.

By Friday, a weak low will develop in southern California, while a stronger Pacific trough pushes toward the PacNW coast. Most areas will have another dry day (with high clouds and probably slightly cooler temps), though increasing onshore flow near the coast could touch off a little light rain or drizzle there (20% chance). Higher chances of light rain exist out over the ocean.

The next frontal system will then approach the area Friday night into Saturday with rain chances increasing over the weekend. On Saturday, we think most areas will stay dry again, but rain chances increase to ~40% along the coast during the afternoon. This looks the first bona fide front in quite a while, especially since there'll likely be a wave that forms along it and maintains high precip chances ( >80%) west of the Cascades Sunday. Snow levels are likely to start out quite high (6500-7000 feet). There are still some timing details to be worked out, but it looks like the cold front will swing through the area late Sunday afternoon/evening with snow levels dropping to around 3500 or 4000 feet by Monday morning (with precip ending). A period of gusty south to southwest winds should precede/accompany the front Sunday with the usual suspects (Shasta Valley and East Side) with the best chance at seeing wind gusts approach advisory levels (45 mph). Right now, flow appears a bit too southwesterly for much more than 40 mph peak wind gusts, but there's plenty of time to evaluate that risk. Snow amounts will be highest Sunday night in the Cascades where 2-6 inches are possible during the 12-hour period 10p-4a. This could make the Monday morning commute slippery over the mountains and also for portions of the East Side along Highway 140 and Highway 97 (something to be aware of given this long stretch of mild weather we've been in). Post-frontal showers could continue on the west slopes of the mountains and along the coast Monday, but things should gradually dry out again.

Models are showing split flow Tue-Wed next week, so while that could mean disturbances nearby, it might also mean they're far enough south/southwest or offshore to not have much impact, except at the coast or in NorCal. Models keep light chance to low chance PoPs (20-50%) in the forecast, but these are likely to be refined downward should this type of pattern materialize. We'll keep an eye on that and let you know.

AVIATION...04/12Z TAFs

LIFR/IFR fog/low clouds will impact portions of the Illinois, Rogue and Umpqua Valleys this morning. This will be primarily from Cave Junction northward to Grants Pass and on up I-5 to Roseburg. These ceilings/fog will lift to VFR by around 18-19Z. Much like yesterday, patchy fog around out arounf White City and toward Central Point will probably stay clear of the terminal at KMFR (Medford airport) this morning. Elsewhere, VFR prevails for the next 24 hours, with just some high cirrus at times.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Steep west swell will move through the coastal waters today and persist through at least Thursday. High pressure will maintain mostly dry conditions and light winds through Friday. A front will produce increased south winds, steep seas, and low visibility conditions in rain this weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.