textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...13/00Z TAFs

VFR prevails across the region late this afternoon with some high clouds streaming through. MVFR/local IFR continues along the coast and over the coastal waters. Gusty south to southwest breezes (25-35 kt) continue in NorCal and east of the Cascades, but there will also be some gusty northwest breezes for areas west of the Cascades into this evening (including here in Medford).

With southerly flow in place over the region and some instability this evening, isolated showers (perhaps even a thunderstorm) could develop in some spots from western Siskiyou County up across the Siskiyous to the Cascades (thunder probability is about 10-20% in these areas). With decent mid-level flow anything that gets going early this evening could drift northward over the Rogue Valley or far eastern Douglas County, but should remain east of the Illinois Valley and Umpqua Basin near Roseburg.

Overnight, an upper trough will move onshore with more widespread MVFR clouds and coastal showers spreading inland by Wednesday morning. The showers could reach northern Klamath and Lake counties Wednesday morning, but areas south and east of the mountains will largely remain dry with VFR. Things mostly dry out with a much cooler air mass Wednesday afternoon. -Spilde/BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 234 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026/

KEY POINTS...

* Strong gusty winds today - gusts of 25-35 mph common across the region with gusts 40-45 mph possible across the highest terrain east of the Cascades.

* Heightened fire weather concerns today - strong winds and low RHs east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. Also, hot, dry and unstable conditions are expected across northern California and East Side.

* Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible this evening over the Siskiyous and Cascade Crest, shifting north of the area tonight.

* Hottest day of the forecast period is today, with a cooling trend back to seasonal normals expected for Wednesday onward. Below normal temperatures are possible over the weekend.

* Light rain (<=0.10") expected tonight into early Wednesday mainly along the coast and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide.

DISCUSSION...Low pressure is approaching the region this afternoon, inducing southerly flow over the forecast area and tightening pressure gradients. This is resulting in strong gusty winds across the region with gusts of 20-30 mph fairly common away from the coast. It's another warm day today with temperatures running about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Increasing cloud cover should limit the warming trend some, but expect another afternoon of upper 80s for the West/lower 80s for the East. Due to the strong winds today, we are highlighting some heightened fire weather concerns today, especially east of the Cascades and in northern California where humidities will be lowest this afternoon. Please use extra caution today if using anything with an open flame.

With southerly flow over the region, there's a low chance (10-20%) for isolated showers/thunderstorms later today into the evening. Instability will be most favorable over western Siskiyou/Siskiyou Mountains and along the Cascades Crest. Steering flow is fairly strong today, out of the southwest around 35-45 kts, so anything that develops over the Siskiyous will move into the Rogue/Illinois Valleys. It's low chance, as moisture is fairly marginal, but still worth mentioning. The thunderstorm threat shifts north of the forecast area tonight.

Low pressure will swing inland tonight through early Wednesday. Gusty winds will ease some after sunset, but remain breezy into early Wednesday. 700 mb winds peak (45-55kt) overnight tonight as the low swings inland, but since it's coming through in the overnight hours, this should limit mixing of the strongest winds down to most places. The higher terrain will likely see stronger gusty winds carry into the overnight hours and straight into Wednesday morning. A cold front will move through the area, bringing some light rain (<=0.10") to the coast and Umpqua Basin. There could be some sprinkles as far south as the OR/CA border, but we don't expect a soaking rain by any means. Areas east of the Cascades and south of the OR/CA border have a very high chance of remaining dry.

The bulk of the precipitation, such that it is, should be winding down around sunrise into early Wednesday morning. Snow levels will lower to around 5000 ft, so there could be some light flurries in the Cascades early Wednesday morning, but winter impacts are not a concern. Some showers could linger into the late morning hours, primarily along the coast and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, but we'll be on the back side of the trough by Wednesday afternoon so the atmosphere will begin drying out. Wednesday will be noticeably cooler compared to recent days, and we'll see afternoon highs return closer to seasonal norms (low-mid 70s West/low-mid 60s East). Wednesday night will also be quite cool east of the Cascades, with freezing temperatures returning to the forecast.

Zonal flow persists through the end of the week, so afternoon highs will trend a few degrees warmer Thursday and Friday, with overnight lows hovering near seasonal norms. Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the week, but a weak front on Thursday should bring a decent marine push and there could be some drizzle along the coast with that.

Over the weekend, broad troughing settles over the Pacific Northwest, which will bring another cooling trend with afternoon highs being somewhat below normal. Shortwaves within this broad trough will provide glancing precipitation chances across northern/northwestern areas Saturday and Saturday night. The overall chance for any widespread wetting rainfall is low at this time, but we'll have to watch model trends with this trough to see if there are any southward shifts in shortwaves.

MARINE...Updated 815 AM PDT Tuesday, May 12, 2026...Relatively calm conditions are expected today with sub-advisory seas and winds shifting to southwest by this afternoon. An incoming low pressure system will bring showers late tonight into Wednesday, along with increasing west winds and west swell. Despite this, below advisory conditions are expected to persist as seas increase some, but remain swell dominated. Gusty north winds could return Thursday with steep seas possible by Friday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.