textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...09/12Z TAFs

In the last hour or so, ceilings have risen to MVFR at North Bend and points northward, indicative of cooling temperatures aloft and a deepening marine layer ahead of today's front. IFR/LIFR ceilings/fog persist south of Gold Beach. Inland, it's VFR. Patchy IFR/MVFR ceilings could develop in the Umpqua Basin around Roseburg around or just after sunrise. Expect existing ceilings to lift today as the front moves onshore. There could be isolated showers, mainly coast/just inland; dry elsewhere. Most areas will have breezy W-NW winds this afternoon/ evening, highest east of the Cascades (25-30 kt). -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 409 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Cool down begins today. Elevated fire risk east side.

* Return to fall weather area wide this weekend. Cool days and colder nights. Could be some rain/higher elevation snow far East side Sat night/Sun.

* Widespread frost likely west side valleys; freezing temps across the East Side into early next week. Best chance Sunday night.

* Low chance of light rain at the coast/Douglas County Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

* General warming trend expected Tuesday-Friday of next week; warmest Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION...A digging upper trough and associated sharp surface cold front will move in from the northwest today. As a result, we'll see breezy to at times windy conditions develop this afternoon and evening, especially east of the Cascades (gusts to 35 mph). It'll remain warm for one more day over the East Side, but cooling will already begin west of the Cascades (compared to recent days). So, highs will be about 10-15 degrees F cooler for west side valleys, while East Side areas will be similar to or just a bit lower than what they were yesterday. With the gusty winds and expected low humidity, fire weather concerns are elevated over portions of the east side, especially Modoc County. As a result, we have a Red Flag Warning in effect from 1-7 pm PDT. Please use extra caution to avoid sparks given the expected windy, dry conditions. The front itself won't have much moisture, but a few light showers could accompany it along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin this afternoon/evening, and then tonight along the NW-facing slopes of higher terrain (Cascades/Siskiyous).

The upper trough will continue to move in over the area Saturday. It'll be back to cool, fall weather inland with high temps only in the low to mid 60s for west side valleys and in the 50s to low 60s over the east side. If you're headed to Crater Lake, the high temperature up there is a chilly 39F! -- a far cry from the low to mid 70s the last several days! A decided lack of moisture should maintain dry weather for most during Saturday, though the colder air aloft could lead to some showers out over the ocean, a few of which could reach the coast or at least NW sections of the area. Models are showing the upper trough axis swinging through the area Saturday night into Sunday. NBM wants to show a corridor of increased moisture stretching from around Mt Shasta region/Medicine Lake up across SE Klamath, Lake and Modoc counties. This could lead to a little light rain or even high elevation snow (a 20-50% chance) in those locations.

Meanwhile, conditions should clear out west of the Cascades and this will bring risk of frost for the first time this season Saturday night. Be on the lookout for frost/freeze headlines. Sunday will be a nice day for most west side valleys, though northerly breezes kick in during the afternoon. East side areas will have more cloud cover with much cooler temps and gusty north-northeast winds.

If it doesn't frost Saturday night, the trough should be farther east Sunday night and, at this time, that looks like the coldest night west of the Cascades. Probability of low temperatures <36 degrees F for Medford/Ashland/Grants Pass are in the 60-80% chance range. Roseburg's is about a 20% chance.

Dry, seasonably cool weather continues Monday (though NBM wants to hold onto slight chances of rain/snow over the far east side). Think the trough is far enough east by then that the moisture is in SE Oregon.

A weak disturbance will pass over the top of upper ridging and may bring some clouds and light rain chances to NW sections of the CWA Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Otherwise, we expect a warming trend next week as a stronger upper ridge develops. It won't be nearly as warm as it was though the 1st week of October. -Spilde

AVIATION...09/06Z TAFs...Along the coast, LIFR conditions will become widespread tonight and persist through Friday morning. Areas of LIFR are also expected along the coast from Brooking south tonight and Friday morning. Inland, areas of IFR ceilings that are expected to develop in the Umpqua Basin Friday morning, including at Roseburg (RBG). Low ceilings in the Umpqua are forecast to lift and clear in the late morning. Along the coast, LIFR will lift to MVFR in the late morning, then expect partial clearing in the afternoon. For other inland areas, expect VFR through the TAF period.

Gusty winds will develop as a mostly dry front moves into the area Friday afternoon and evening. This front will bring some mid level ceilings to coastal areas and the Umpqua with low chances (15-30%) for rain.

MARINE...Updated 330 AM PDT Friday, October 9, 2026...Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas continue across the area through much of this weekend. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest south of Port Orford. Occasional gale force gusts are possible just offshore of Brookings. Winds and seas should subside early next week. Guidance continues to depict the arrival of the first west-northwest long period swell of the season over the weekend, likely originating from the northwestern Pacific near Japan. While the high energy swell is not expected to exceed 6 feet, the arriving swell of 1 foot at 27 seconds on Saturday will build to a peak at around 6 feet at 20 to 22 seconds later Sunday. This could produce dangerous bar conditions, heavier than normal surf, and abnormal currents. Swell will then very slowly diminish Monday into Tuesday, continuing at 4 to 6 ft while period lowers to 14 seconds. -Spilde

FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather concerns increase today ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the area tonight. Increasing pressure gradients in advance of the front and a belt of higher SW-W mid level flow will develop this afternoon east of the Cascades and in NE California. Good vertical mixing will allow these winds to transport down to the surface resulting in W winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. A few of the higher exposed RAWS might hit 40 mph. This, combined with expected afternoon RH values down around 15% will make for critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Modoc County from 1-7 PM PDT. Elevated fire risk is also expected in portions of Lake and Klamath counties. Please be aware of the fire danger and avoid creating unnecessary sparks.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 300 AM PDT Friday, October 9, 2026...The first long period swell of the season arrives this weekend. Originating from a storm off the coast of Japan earlier this week, the west-northwests swell will arrive in the southern Oregon waters Saturday evening with a period over 25 seconds. Swell will then build through Sunday, peaking Sunday afternoon and evening at around 5 feet at 19 seconds. This very long period swell will result in a heightened chance for sneaker waves and run-ups of unusual size through Monday evening.

While the threat for sneaker waves will be persistent throughout Sunday and Monday, the highest risk is expected during periods of incoming tides. With high tides along the southern Oregon coast expected roughly around Noon to 1 PM, and again around Midnight to 1 AM, the highest risk for sneaker waves will be during the morning and late evening hours.

If visiting the coast Sunday or Monday, stay vigilant for incoming waves. Stay far away from the surf zone and never turn your back to the ocean.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.