textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Some mid and high level clouds are moving over the forecast area this morning and inhibiting fog formation in some valleys, although Roseburg just dropped down to 1/2 mile about an hour ago. There is a chance of fog formation through the next few hours into the morning as dew point depressions stay near 1 to 0 degrees. However, the mid level clouds could stop things forming in some locations entirely this morning.

The ridge will continue to strengthen later tonight and there will be a continued chance for fog. However, there should be more cloud cover later tonight as a stationary front settles across southern Oregon. Eventually, the ridge axis settles over southern Oregon and northern California Friday night just ahead of the next warm front. Again, fog is possible, although less likely as there should be quite the upper level cloud shield moving into the forecast area. One could also analyze a thermal trough along the coast Friday night, which would lead to some lighter east winds over the coastal range.

Eventually, that warm front will move in on Saturday with spotty precipitation across the forecast area. It looks like models are picking up on convective available potential energy along the warm front on Saturday afternoon. The probability of 1 cloud to ground flash is about 20 percent across northern California during Saturday, so a few rumbles of thunder seems completely reasonable.

Eventually, a short wave will swing into the region around Wednesday with the potential for more precipitation. Ensembles still differ on how much rain we could see as this short wave moves on shore. Perhaps its down to available moisture, track, or if a wave even exists. In any case, the chance of precipitation is about 40 to 60 percent on Sunday across the forecast area.

Finally towards the middle of next week around Wednesday, another quick hitting wave will bring more precipitation and snow to the region. Snow levels will be around 4500 feet on average, so the mountains should see at least some snow, although it appears to be a minor event given the latest data from the models.

-Smith

AVIATION

Some fog has formed in a few valleys this morning as ample boundary layer moisture and ground moisture has helped with fog formation. However, there are plenty of mid level clouds inhibiting fog formation and the inversion isn't all that strong this morning. In any case, a few more pockets of fog could form over the next few hours. Eventually, this fog should clear up pretty quickly and we'll see VFR conditions through the day with higher clouds linger in the region. By tonight, patchy fog is possible if there is enough clearing.

-Smith

MARINE

Gusty north winds will persist this morning resulting in some borderline steep seas across the outer waters south of Cape Blanco. Borderline advisory conditions hover near advisory levels through much of today. A building northwest swell will combine with more widespread gusty north winds, resulting steep seas across most of the waters this evening into early Saturday. Conditions improve late Saturday into Sunday, with sub-advisory conditions expected into early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ376.