textproduct: Medford

KEY POINTS

* Low impact weather continues today, though with coastal low clouds persisting for most of the morning. Also, typically breezy conditions for the afternoon and evening.

* The inland warming trend continues today, with highs a few degrees higher than yesterday. Highs will then fluctuate little from day-to-day during the next week, remaining around 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Tuesday, then a few degrees less hot into next weekend.

* Sunday/Monday - Isolated late day thunderstorms across northern California and from the Cascades eastward. Most likely across Lake, northern Klamath, and eastern Modoc counties. Fire starts will be a concern as these thunderstorms will arise from high based clouds with a fairly dry low-level air mass.

* Sunday Night/Monday Morning - For the same broad area, though thunderstorm activity will decrease overnight, embedded shortwaves could produce showers and a few thunderstorms.

* Tuesday through Saturday - Still hot and breezy with low humidity, but a return of a stable air mass. Conditions will be similar to those of Today.

DISCUSSION

Coastal stratus this morning from Florence to Brookings will be stubborn to clear with breaks becoming noticeable after 10 AM PDT and clearing likely by noon. Low clouds will be returning to the coast this evening, particularly after 8 PM PDT. Otherwise, scattered cumulus buildups over northern California late today will be a first sign of the coming change in the pattern. A weak, but broad trough far offshore from northern California will track toward the coast.

While there are still some model differences, the last few model runs have remained focused over south central Oregon and northern California for a risk of high-based convection late in the day on Sunday and Monday, including both broader coverage and a slightly higher probability on Monday. Activity does look to remain isolated on Sunday with the highest probability of thunderstorms in Lake County. We tend to get what I characterize as hybrid storms in our area, not classically dry thunderstorms but not big rain producers either. These cells look to lean toward drier than normal with cloud bases (around 11-13K ft) a little higher than normal, and a dry lower level of the air mass. The same factors that favor drier cells on Sunday will also somewhat hinder the development of storms. Embedded shortwaves ahead of the trough could produce virga, light showers, and even a few overnight thunderstorms. Available mid-level moisture looks to reach a peak during the late morning/early afternoon on Monday, ahead of peak heating. It will be a bit of a race to see how much activity develops in northern California on Monday before drier air aloft filters in. Compared to the data from 24 hours ago, confidence is higher for late day storms from the Cascades eastward, with the western edge of sufficient mid-level moisture for thunderstorm development showing a higher probability of including southern and eastern Jackson County. Though likely to be tapering off, thunderstorms could linger just a bit longer than usual on Monday evening, past sunset for Diamond Lake eastward across northern portions of Klamath and Lake counties.

Behind the upper level trough, a return of a more westerly flow aloft is expected on Tuesday, with a stable maritime influenced air mass. The 00Z and 06Z models have continued to trend weaker with what was originally shaping up to be an impactful dry frontal passage. The highest probability now is to merely see dry minium humidity levels on the east side nudge a couple or few percent lower than previous days and breezy afternoon west winds to be around 5 mph stronger than typical. Both of those features could still be just enough to tip the balance past critical thresholds of fire danger. Overall, most of next week, Tuesday onward will see conditions each day quite similar to those of today.

AVIATION...04/12Z TAFs

Marine layer low clouds extend into the coastal valleys early this morning, including the Coquille, Camas, and lower Umpqua valleys (to around Sutherlin). These conditions are LIFR from Gold Beach to Brookings, and IFR for the remainder of that area. Conditions will begin to improve after sunrise, with breaks in the overcast forming around 17Z-18Z, and widespread VFR from 20Z- 02Z. A similar scenario is expected later this evening into Sunday morning. Otherwise, VFR continues across the remainder of the area with a few afternoon cumulus buildups expected over northern California.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, July 4, 2026

Gusty north winds will persist into early next week, maintaining steep to very steep seas. Advisory level winds will persist south of Cape Blanco and maintain steep seas south of Port Orford this morning. Conditions worsen this afternoon into Sunday as north winds increase. Steep seas will return to areas north of Cape Blanco with very steep seas developing south of Cape Blanco and beyond 5 nm from shore. There could be a brief period of gale force gusts this afternoon south of Gold Beach between 10 and 30 nm from shore. These conditions are likely to persist through Sunday evening, then improve Monday into Wednesday as north winds weaken.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 400 AM PDT Saturday, July 4, 2026

There is a slight chance of late day thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday for northern California and from the Cascades eastward, with the highest probability for Lake County, and on Monday. A few thunderstorms may also develop in Lake and Modoc counties later Sunday night into Monday morning. First, a modest increase in mid- level should allow scattered cumulus buildups over Siskiyou and Modoc counties this afternoon into the early evening.

Otherwise, high temperatures remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, and afternoon breezes remain typical to slightly enhanced during the next week. This will result in very dry conditions, generally just shy of critical wind and humidity thresholds. Also, gusty northeast winds will continue at coastal ridges during the overnight hours through Sunday, strongest early on Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ376.