textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Scattered showers are still ongoing this morning with significantly less precipitation compared to 24 hours ago. Small streams should have peaked already as some of the major rivers are about to crest this morning. Therefore, we cancelled the flood advisory for small streams on the night shift. The light rain should add to rain totals, although the impacts should be pretty muted.

The main impacts tonight is the Coquille river reaching minor flood stage and flooding of low lying areas around Coquille. This is pretty typical and happens once or twice a year. Expect flooding of low-lying areas around the Coquille river and some farmland around Coquille. If river rises up to 23 feet, we could see some road closures around Coquille and widespread flooding throughout the Coquille river floodplain.

A cold front will move through the forecast area later this evening and snow levels will fall from 9000 feet down to 4500 feet on average later tonight. Overnight lows trend about 10 degrees lower. However, surface temperatures don't trend lower with highs actually increasing into the upper 50's west of the Cascades on Thursday and perhaps some 60's in a few of the valleys.

With building high pressure and all ground moisture from the recent rainfall, fog should be a lock in the valleys Wednesday night and again Thursday night. Overnight lows could be cold enough for some freezing fog briefly, but it shouldn't be an impact with significant accumulation on solid surfaces. The fog isn't showing up in the NAM MOS(METMFR) guidance, although it is indeed in the GFS MOS guidance(MAVMFR).

Eventually, PoPs increase on Saturday and QPF re-enters the forecast. The extreme forecast index(EFI) isn't picking up on anything notable at this time. It's worth noting all the ensemble members do show a warm front lifting into our forecast area, although they differ with intensity as some are fairly light and others bring a little bit heavier rain. Overall, no impacts as snow levels push up to 7000 feet along and behind the warm front.

By next week, ensembles continue to diverge with differing locations on where exactly a short wave will arrive on shore. Some keep it in our forecast area, while others push it farther south into northern or central California. Depending on where this wave moves onshore will dictate how much rain the area will get next week, although all the members don't event look that wet so flooding isn't a concern.

-Smith

AVIATION...25/12Z TAFS

Just some isolated showers around the region this morning with IFR and LIFR ceilings in many of the valleys. Fog and some mist has formed in many of the valleys this morning due bontiful moisture in the boundary layer. We should mix out to a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings later this afternoon.

Look for fog and more LIFR conditions in the valleys tonight as the skies clear out.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday, February 25

Southerly swell is decreasing but steep seas continue into tonight. Below advisory seas are expected this morning to Friday morning, with a brief period of steep seas south of Cape Blanco from this evening into early Thursday morning. Unsettled seas are possible Friday afternoon into the weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Thursday for PZZ356-376.