textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* After a slight cooldown Sunday, another warmup arrives early next week * Dry/breezy conditions this afternoon-evening (West of Cascades: NW/N), East of Cascades: W) * Above normal temperatures continue through the forecast (70s/80s) * Next chance for precipitation: Later Tuesday/Wednesday, some model disagreement

Satellite shows marine stratus across Coos and Curry counties, including the Coquille Valley. The stratus is starting to expand to the Umpqua Basin, and these low clouds will burn off later this morning.

The ridge will move eastward today while a dry front arrives. East side temperatures will be slightly warmer than Saturday temperatures while west side drops 5-10 degrees. RHs east of the Cascades will drop to the teens and low 20s in the afternoon with W/NW winds peaking around 12-17 mph. The coast will also see stronger winds near 10-15 mph this afternoon.

Ridging will build again Monday, help warm temperatures to more than what was seen Saturday. Highs are forecast to near 90 degrees in the Rogue valley, mid-upper 70s for the coast, and low/mid-80s east of the Cascades! Monday winds are forecast to have a typical afternoon peak, and minimum RH values will be in the 15-25% range east of the Cascades and near 20-30% for portions of the Rogue Valley.

Tuesday and beyond: An approaching cutoff low will influence midweek conditions, but with some uncertainty in the details. The first effects may be on Tuesday afternoon and evening, when southerly flow around the cutoff could bring gusty winds into the Shasta Valley, the southern Rogue Valley, and over the east side. These winds may reach Advisory speeds in the Shasta Valley (50-60% chances), but are unlikely to do so in other areas (10-20% chances over terrain in Modoc and southern Lake/Klamath counties). Uncertainty in the timing and position of the low is affecting confidence in other areas. ECMWF deterministic imagery brings the cutoff over the CWA on Wednesday morning, which limits daytime heating and makes thunderstorms less likely while rain showers are more likely. GFS imagery moves the cutoff farther south and arrives later on Wednesday, which is more favorable for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Forecast daytime highs also reflect this uncertainty. NBM probabilistic guidance has an interquartile range (equal 25% chances) of Medford's high being between 75 and 92 degrees.

Beyond the cutoff, there's good model agreement in a cooling trend from Thursday through Saturday. By Saturday, daytime highs may dip just below seasonal norms. -TAD

AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs

A mix of IFR/LIFR conditions will persist this morning at the coast, Coquille Valley, and Umpqua Basin before improving again during the afternoon.

Farther inland, VFR prevails with some high clouds drifting by at times. Guidance also some slight potential (10% chance) for lower clouds to filter into the Rogue Valley around sunrise, but conditions should remain VFR at the Medford terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected through this evening, with gusty winds developing across the region in the afternoon/evening.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Sunday, May 10, 2026

A thermal trough develops today, bringing increasing north winds and wind driven steep seas south of Cape Blanco through Monday. Gusty north winds and steep seas are expected to expand north of Cape Blanco on Monday before subsiding again late Monday night into Tuesday. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.