textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows quite a bit of cloud cover around the region. Marine stratus from this morning is eroding from portions of Douglas and Coos Counties. Meanwhile, cumulus clouds have developed again east of the Cascades and across northern California. Radar shows some isolated showers south of Highway 140 and east of the Medicine Lake area, but lightning potential is even lower (5-10% chance) than it was yesterday. With less cloud cover around for the remainder of the area, temperatures are trending warmer by a few degrees compared to this time yesterday and should top out right at seasonal normals today.

Shower potential largely drops out of the forecast for Wednesday, though a stray shower across eastern Lake/Modoc isn't out of the question. Upper level ridging builds into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will trend warmer each day, by around 5 degrees warmer than the previous day and dry conditions will prevail through then.

We should squeak out another dry and warm day on Friday, but the ridge gets pushed inland to Intermountain West as low pressure gets carved out just offshore late Friday into Saturday. This will bring a few degrees of cooling to areas west of the Cascades as heights lower and cloud cover increases on Friday. Conversely, areas east of the Cascades will see a few degrees of warming as high pressure remains more of the dominating influence on Friday. Most areas should remain dry on Friday, but guidance is hinting at the potential for some shower activity along the Cascades Friday afternoon/evening.

The pattern evolves further as we head into the weekend. On Saturday, the low pressure offshore essentially closes off just off the coast of northern California. Meanwhile, high pressure to the west of that low, amplifies, then also closes off to the north of the low pressure by Sunday, forming a Rex Block that lingers well into next week. This blocking pattern puts our region under south to southeasterly flow Saturday through at least Tuesday, providing for daily chances of afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms during that time. This period is still beyond day 5 in the forecast, so details are likely to change as we move closer in time. Currently, however, it looks like Sunday and Monday feature the most widespread chances, including along the coast, but both Saturday and Tuesday have the opportunity for shower/thunderstorm activity. The focus shifts to east of the Cascades on Tuesday as the cut off low gradually shifts eastward.

AVIATION...28/18Z TAFs

Stratus is thinning, but patchy MVFR conditions will linger for another couple of hours, into the early afternoon, at the coast, Coquille, and Umpqua valleys.

Other than isolated showers in Modoc County into this evening, mostly clear and dry conditions will prevail today.

Though with lesser coverage and shorter duration, IFR/MVFR ceilings will return to the coast and Umpqua Valley late tonight into Wednesday morning. VFR with mostly clear skies is expected elsewhere on Wednesday.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, April 28, 2026

A thermal trough pattern will bring stronger north winds this afternoon. North winds will reach peak strength during Thursday and Friday afternoons and persist through Saturday. The strongest winds and very steep seas are expected south of Port Orford Wednesday afternoon and evening, and are likely again Thursday afternoon through at least Friday evening. Meantime, seas will be steep elsewhere. Steep, fresh swell may linger while winds diminish and turn southerly Saturday night into Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for PZZ356-376.