textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* A Wind Advisory is in effect through 6 PM for portions of the Rogue Valley * A High Wind Warning is in effect through 6 PM for the Shasta Valley * Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday * Remaining showers possible into Wednesday * Drying trend begins Thursday and through most of the weekend * Warm, above normal temperatures this weekend

The upper low remains near Southern Oregon and Northern California through the middle of this week. Current radar has showers in Douglas, Coos and Siskiyou counties. Western Siskiyou received the most so far, and the 6-hour total as of 1 PM was near 0.15"-0.30" there with less than 0.10" west of the Cascades. Winds have been stronger due to more mixing, and max wind gusts since 12 AM were near 30-45 mph in eastern Siskiyou County and east of the Cascades. However, the stronger winds have also been felt in the Rogue Valley, and max gusts as of 1:15 PM have reached 35-40 mph at some Rogue Valley sites. As peak heating has not occured yet, we are issuing a Wind Advisory through 6 PM for portions of the Rogue Valley. Please view NPWMFR for more details.

Between 3-5 PM, there is another push of precipitation from the south, and this will focus on Northern California and near the Cascades and west through the evening. Snow levels will be near 6,000' and higher, and this will bring enough impacts near the Trinity Alps in Siskiyou County to keep the Winter Weather Advisory in effect through Tuesday morning.

Early Tuesday is when scattered showers return, once again moving north. Forecast soundings near the Rogue Valley and west of the Cascades show CAPE values around 100-150 J/kg. This, alongside the low placement, will bring a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms. Gusty winds and brief, heavy rain will be possible in the strongest storms. The mostly likely timeframe for thunderstorms will be between 12 PM-5 PM Tuesday. Southerly winds will also be stronger in the mountains and higher terrain of Northern California and Lake and Klamath counties.

By Thursday the upper low will move east out of the area and drier conditions return. Slightly above normal temperatures will be present through the long term as well. Model differences in the extended come to fruition around Friday night, so confidence is low on the details Saturday onward. -Hermansen

AVIATION...20/18Z TAFs

Low pressure offshore will bring rain and lower ceilings (mixed VFR/MVFR) at the coast and in portions of western Siskiyou County through this afternoon. Areas of higher terrain will become obscured. Inland areas will remain mainly VFR the rest of today, then areas of MVFR (and terrain obscuration) will spread inland to areas west of the Cascades this evening and overnight. Gusty south to southeast winds are expected in the Shasta Valley, the Rogue Valley up to around Medford and over the East Side late this morning into this afternoon. Expect peak wind gusts of 25- 30 kt, but perhaps 35 kt. We'll be monitoring for possible airport weather warnings at both Medford and Klamath Falls. The increasing southerly flow into Siskiyou County, including the Mt Shasta region, will cause lowering ceilings (to MVFR) late this afternoon and then persist tonight along with rain and high elevation snow (above 5000 feet). Some IFR is possible down there as well. Precipitation will be more showery north of the Siskiyous. These conditions last into Tuesday morning, then expect additional showers Tuesday afternoon, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Monday, April 20, 2026

Low pressure will bring active weather through this evening, with gusty south winds, elevated seas, periods of rain and low visibility. Winds are likely to be strongest through this evening with a period of steep seas hazardous to small craft mostly beyond 10 NM from shore and for areas within 10 NM of shore from Cape Blanco north. Conditions should improve Tuesday as the low gradually pushes into Northern California. Then, increasing NW swell follows Wednesday into Thursday with a return of north to northwest winds. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for ORZ026.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM PDT this evening for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370-376.