textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion updated.

AVIATION...18/00Z TAFS

Numerous showers continue through this evening then decrease, becoming isolated to scattered and mostly focused along the coast tonight into Wednesday. Snow levels drop to around 500 feet tonight, maybe even locally lower and to near sea level at the coast. Any showers will be capable of locally lowering ceilings and visibilities (MVFR and IFR) as well as obscuring elevated terrain. Additionally, areas of MVFR/IFR in low stratus are possible tonight into Wednesday morning for inland valleys, especially the Umpqua.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 217 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026/

SYNOPSIS...Cold low pressure continues to impact SW Oregon and northern California through midweek. After last night's and today's moderate to heavy snow event, we'll be underneath the core of the cold low tonight and shower coverage should diminish. In fact, breaks in the clouds could lead to very cold temps overnight, with the potential for wet, slushy roadways to become icy into Wednesday morning. Showers will be most numerous along the coast and over the mountains. Another period of moderate to heavy snow is expected Wednesday night into Thursday before a break in the action Thursday night and Friday. Stormy weather returns this weekend as another Pacific low approaches with rain, higher elevation snow and possible strong winds.

DISCUSSION...A deep, cold upper trough and low pressure system will move in overhead tonight into Wednesday. Energy in advance of this system brought 1-4 inches of snow last night into today down to around 1000 feet in the valleys west of the Cascades (we officially had 0.5 of an inch on our snow board here at the airport). 4-8 inches fell above ~1500 feet with the higher amounts around Talent/Ashland and even a report of 11.5 inches at Greenview in the Scott Valley! Most of the ski resorts had 6-12 inches, including Mt. Ashland. And, Crater Lake NP reported 12.5 inches at ~1030 am this morning. The highest total I could find was 16 inches at Big Red Mountain SNOTEL, which now has 33 inches on the ground. While this has caused plenty of headaches for motorists on the roadways, this has been a much needed change from more than a month with barely any snow at all. It has helped to build the snow pack in the mountains where it is desperately needed.

Steadier snow is still falling from Modoc County into southern Lake County this afternoon, but this should shift eastward this evening as the core of the coldest air aloft moves in tonight into Wednesday morning. While this will result in the lowest snow levels of the season, lack of strong forcing will actually lead to diminishing coverage of showers for inland areas. In fact, some breaks in the cloud cover could develop and this would lead to flash freeze potential with wet/slushy roads turning icy overnight. So, if driving/walking/riding anywhere tonight, please use extra caution. Low temperatures area wide will be near or below freezing (including the coast where a freeze warning is in effect) with teens over the East Side and in portions of NorCal. In addition to the freeze warning along the coast, we have added a winter weather advisory there too since showers will likely be most numerous over there during the night and into Wednesday morning. Most accumulation in those areas will be reserved for elevations above 500 feet, but we can't rule out some isolated locations at sea level that get a brief dusting with temperatures near freezing. More energy diving southward from western Canada will move through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and that's why we're maintaining the whole suite of Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories through at least Thursday morning. We are likely to see another round of moderate to heavy snow with similar snow levels to last night. Once again, the main timing for precip is during the night and into the wee hours of Thursday morning, so paved surfaces and roadways will be colder to support snow accumulation. Amounts of 1-4 inches are likely on the valleys floors west of the Cascades with up to 6 inches in southern portions of the Illinois Valley and also the lower Klamath Valley in western Siskiyou County. Mountain areas, including the Shasta region, higher elevations of western Siskiyou County, the Kalmiopsis Wilderness and the Cascades are all likely to see another 8-16 inches of snow. Advisory amounts are expected over the East Side with 2-6 inches (maybe 8 over Winter Rim and the Warners).

One we get past Thursday, the upper trough gets a kick inland and coverage of precipitation will diminish overnight, though cold temps are expected again. Short wave upper ridging should provide mostly dry weather Friday.

The break will be short-lived. Model guidance is near unanimous in showing stormy weather returning to the area over the weekend, but it's likely to be milder than this recent stretch. Another deep, closed low will break southward from the Gulf of Alaska spinning up low pressure off the PacNW coast. Multiple waves will increase winds/rain chances along the coast Saturday with the bulk of the storminess moving through the area Sunday into Monday. Models are showing strong mid-level southerly flow of 55-60kt, so this means many areas inland will get breezy to windy, especially the Shasta Valley and also the East Side. It also means we'll have some warm advection, and snow levels will be higher, generally starting around 3000 feet, and then rising to 4000-5000 feet. Some downsloping would occur across Oregon, but upslope flow would bring winter impacts back to NorCal. The Winter Storm Severity Index is showing a high probability (60-80%) of at least moderate winter impacts across the NorCal mountains. The Mt Shasta City region and I-5 is a little iffier though with snow levels hovering 3000-3500 feet initially, then rising. An unsettled weather pattern is likely to persist into mid next week.

MARINE...Updated 1000 AM PST Tuesday, February 17, 2026...Westerly winds ease through the day today but high westerly swell will support steep seas in all area waters through at least Wednesday afternoon. The swell eases Wednesday night into Thursday, but another passing low brings another round of activity with periods of gusty north to northwest winds, rain and possible steep seas Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas briefly lower into Friday. Then, a strong storm will move southward over the eastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. Current forecast for this system shows a high probability (>80% chance) of southerly gales and also the potential for storm force gusts (especially over the outer waters - beyond 10 NM from shore) Saturday into Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023-024- 026.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ021>031.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-082- 083.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ081-084- 085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.