textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...22/06Z TAFs

Onshore flow is producing LIFR at the coast from Cape Blanco northward this evening. Beginning around 09Z, LIFR is also expected along the south coast near Brookings. The coastal LIFR is expected to begin to erode after sunrise, with VFR expected from around 18Z late Monday morning through around 03Z Monday evening. Coastal LIFR is then expected to surge back to the coast for Monday night. Elsewhere, VFR will persist with mostly clear skies.

MARINE...Updated 1000 PM PDT Sunday, June 21, 2026

North winds will continue to strengthen through Monday evening. The result will be strong northerly winds and very steep seas south of Cape Blanco while steep seas remain across most of the northern waters. There may be isolated areas of gale force gusts through Monday evening for areas south of Cape Blanco. A pattern of northerly winds is likely to continue through mid-week, with winds remaining at Small Craft Advisory strength south of Cape Blanco while fresh swell continues steep seas in the northern outer waters beyond 30 nm from shore.

Conditions briefly improve on Thursday. A cold frontal system is likely to bring light rain and a modest increase in fresh west- northwest swell Thursday night into early Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 450 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026/

SYNOPSIS...Warm daytime temperatures will create some elevated heat risk for valley locations Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures trend cooler mid week before a cold front pushes through around Thursday night and Friday morning. Light rain will likely fall across most of Oregon Friday.

DISCUSSION...

Some cumulus fields are building over portions of northern California and south central Oregon this afternoon. A 500 mb ridge over the eastern Pacific continues to build while troughing continues over portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies today. As a result, temperatures should remain right around seasonal normals for mid June. Fog and low stratus will spread back into the coast and coastal valleys later tonight as the marine layer remains compressed with some light onshore flow.

Zonal flow aloft with a weak thermal trough west of the Cascades will develop by Monday afternoon. The thermal trough will increase temperatures 7 to 8 degrees warmer for highs with many locations hitting the upper 90's for highs in south western Oregon. Temperatures have trended cooler compared to previous model runs a few days ago and the risk for heat illness around Douglas County is pretty small from Monday into Tuesday. Therefore, we cancelled the heat advisory for that area. However, small areas of elevated/moderate heat risk persist here in Jackson/Josephine and portions of northern California. Therefore, we continued the heat advisory for those locations.

Medford's normal high for this time of year is 83 and we're forecasting 97 on Monday and 96 on Tuesday, so a solid 10 to 15 degrees above normal early next week.

A short wave will push into the region by Tuesday afternoon, although temperatures only move a few degrees lower. In any case, it should be breezy Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday as a stronger pressure gradient sets up. It should be gusty over higher terrain Wednesday afternoon around Crater Lake and the Siskiyou Mountains. Stronger onshore flow sets up Wednesday night into Thursday as yet another short wave pushes into the Pacific Northwest.

The big change will come by Friday morning as models are forecasting a plume of warm moist air to move in ahead of the cold front. This will likely bring rain to the area with a 50% chance of precipitation over locations west of the Cascades. Those probabilities decrease significantly farther to the south in California and east of the Cascades on Friday. With a cold front this strong, one also thinks about the potential for thunderstorms. However, the ECWMF ensemble members are not showing any CAPE with this frontal passage in the morning. Some members are bringing the instability in the afternoon east of the Cascades, so we'll have to watch out for that in future model runs. In any case, the rain and cooler temperatures will be welcomed with respect to fire weather threats and fuel conditions over the next few weeks.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024- 026.

CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-370-376.