textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Frost and freezing temperatures will develop this morning and again Tuesday morning.

* High pressure builds towards the end of the week with highs pushing into the mid 80's.

* Light rain is likely around next week Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Not a lot going on across the region this morning as temperatures fall to freezing within most of the inland valleys. We're currently on track for a low of 32 here in Medford and Grants Pass with mainly clear skies and calm winds. If we don't hit freezing, we'll surely see large areas of frost this morning.

The upper level low will be situated over southeastern Oregon this afternoon with cool dry air continuing to flow into area from the north. 500 mb heights will begin to build as the upper level low departs the state, and we should see some coastal stratus and fog build in tonight. Most of the valleys will see more frost at the very least Monday night with some areas in California hitting freezing again.

Temperatures will trend warmer by Tuesday as highs push back towards the climatological normals for this time of year. Medford will move towards a high of 72 in Medford and areas east of the Cascades will push into the lower 60's. Temperatures continue to move warmer through the week as the 500 mb heights build and peak around 591dm according to the GEFS, which is pretty healthy for a ridge around here and is the 99th percentile for mid October.

The extreme forecast index(EFI) is predicting values around 0.8, which tells us these temperatures near the end of the week are unusually high in the ensemble model climatology for our area. In addition, the high temperature record on Friday the 16th within Medford is at risk. We're forecasting a high of 87, which is one degree under the 2022 record of 88.

Lastly, the 0Z ECMWF ensembles are predicting a change towards wetter conditions around next week Monday. Many ensembles(~70%) are showing at least some lighter rain for southern Oregon and northern California between the 19th and 20th. Our forecast is showing a 45% chance of 0.01 inches of rain between 0Z Monday the 19th and 6Z Tuesday the 20th. The probability of some rain over a 48 hour period is much higher and closer to 60% based off the latest NBM probabilities.

AVIATION...12/12Z TAFs

VFR conditions are anticipated early in the TAF period. Some marine stratus will build over the coast later this evening into tonight. IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities are most likely.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Sunday, October 12, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas will continue across the area into Tuesday. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest south of Port Orford. Furthermore, long period west- northwest swell will continue into this afternoon. Improved conditions are expected by Tuesday night with gusty winds resuming south of Port Orford on Wednesday.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1230 PM PDT Sunday, October 11, 2026

West-northwest swell will peak this afternoon and evening at around 5-6 feet at 19-20 seconds. This long period swell will result in a heightened risk for sneaker waves and wave run-ups of unusual size through Monday evening.

While the threat for sneaker waves will be persistent throughout today and Monday, the highest risk is expected during periods of incoming tides. High tides along the southern Oregon coast are expected roughly around noon to 1 PM PDT, and again around Midnight to 1 AM PDT.

If visiting the coast Sunday or Monday, stay vigilant for incoming waves. Stay far away from the surf zone and never turn your back to the ocean.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ024-026.

Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ021- 022.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ023.

CA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356- 376.