textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

The ridge that has been lingering over the forecast area for the better part of two weeks will finally start to break down, or at least move farther west, today. A weak shortwave is passing over the area this morning, and some very spotty and very light returns are appearing on radar east o the Cascades, but very little of this, if any, is making it to the ground. The shortwave will, however, help to mix the atmosphere up a bit, weakening the valley inversions, and hopefully allowing some of the more fog-prone areas to clear out this afternoon.

Where cloud cover exists this morning, low temperatures have been warmer than previous days. Where the skies are clear, mainly to the south over northern California, lows remain colder than normal.

The pattern continues to change with a strong surface high building east of the Cascades and east to west wind flow developing during the day. The air will become fairly dry with some cooler air trying to settle into the valleys tonight and Saturday morning. This is the day of higher concern for colder overnight lows with the potential for freezing temperatures along the coast. The NBM has a 50% chance of temperatures <32 around North Bend on Friday night and Saturday morning. Therefore, we decided to issue a freeze watch for the immediate coast in Douglas and Coos Counties. The main impact is for outdoor plants and some outdoor plumbing that could freeze overnight.

High pressure will rebuild by Sunday as a short wave approaches the Oregon coastline around Sunday night. This wave will come in dry, although we should see some cloud cover and perhaps a stray shower along the Oregon coastline around Monday afternoon and evening.

The big change is anticipated around Wednesday as a cold front pushes into Oregon and northern California. Ensemble data is showing precipitation hitting the region with the heaviest rainfall to our south. There is still a rather large number of members that keep us dry and not much if anything falling in southern Oregon and northern California. So while there could be some light snow in the mountains, it's not looking great for accumulating snowpack right now.

Overall, the dryish trend continues, although the weather pattern will likely become more progressive by next week.

AVIATION...23/12Z TAFs

A mostly dry frontal system is moving through the area, producing mostly VFR cloudiness with ceilings lowering from around 8kft down to around 3-6kft. Precip chances remain low or non-existent in most places, but wouldn't be surprised if a little light rain falls along the coast north of Cape Blanco or stray snow flurries occur over the higher terrain of the East Side.

Meanwhile, LIFR ceilings persist in and around the notorious fog/low cloud "bowls" of Grants Pass/Roseburg. These ceilings will be difficult to break given the strength of the inversion this morning. However, the system arriving from the north could allow for just enough mixing today for conditions to improve to VFR. Model guidance isn't much help in this regard seeing as it doesn't even acknowledges the existence of the fog/low clouds right now. But, since the overall air mass will be drying out, we're optimistically allowing for a period of VFR conditions there late in the afternoon.

Here in Medford, cloud cover (6-8kft) coming into the area from the north could be timed well enough to preclude LIFR fog development. Even if patchy fog does occur, it wouldn't likely last too long.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, January 23, 2026

North winds will gradually increase today. Seas are steep and hazardous to small craft south of Cape Blanco, especially beyond 10 nm from shore. Winds will gradually diminish and shift to the northeast, but also spread to areas north of the Cape on Saturday. Conditions are expected to improve early next week. A more active pattern is expected to follow later next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for ORZ021.

Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ023- 024-026-029>031.

Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ024.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-370.