textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION and MARINE Discussions

AVIATION...08/06Z TAFs

A frontal boundary remains aimed at the coast and into the Umpqua Basin this evening, bringing a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions. Inland, VFR conditions prevail with terrain obscurations increasing overnight. Meanwhile, low level wind shear (LLWS) will remain a concern along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin through tonight.

The frontal boundary will kind of stall along and just west of the I- 5 corridor tonight before getting a better push inland through the region early Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Expect conditions to lower to MVFR as this happens, with local areas of IFR in heavier rainfall west of the Cascades. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for areas east of the Cascades until the front nudges eastward Sunday morning. Gusty winds will develop east of the Cascades Sunday afternoon. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 830 PM PST Saturday, February 7, 2026

Gusty south winds will ease overnight, but seas will remain steep for all areas through Sunday. Sub-advisory winds will persist through Monday, but a building west swell will maintain elevated seas. Winds turn northerly late Monday into Tuesday, which could result in steep seas south of Cape Blanco. Conditions improve around mid-week as north winds ease and seas gradually lower. Active weather returns by late week. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 355 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...

Key Points:

* Rain: Chances through this weekend - Rainfall greatest along/near the coast - Amounts generally decrease as you go east - Not expecting widespread hazards from rainfall - More rainfall next week but some uncertainty exists

* Snow: Sunday night into Monday for higher elevations - Precipitation generally decreasing at this time - Snow levels dropping to 4000 Sun night/Monday morning - Generally light amounts and no hazards expected at this time - Additional snowfall late next week

* Wind: Breezy to isolated gusty winds for eastside on Sunday - Isolated advisory conditions through Sunday afternoon

Further Details:

A broad area of cyclonic rotation is noted over the Gulf of Alaska. GOES satellite imagery depicting a nice fetch of midlevel moisture across the region. We are seeing returns on radar along and near the coast in addition to some inland areas. Expecting this to continue through today with mostly rainfall for westside locations. Rainfall will continue tomorrow as a front pushes onshore increasing lift which will be further enhanced by jet dynamics tomorrow. This will be mostly a beneficial rain event in the sense we have been relatively dry for this time of year when we are typically wet. Much of January and early February has been noted by mostly dry conditions in a relative sense to climatology. Snow pack will not see much help through this event as QPF will be dwindling down as snow levels finally start to drop behind the cooler airmass. That said, there will be a 6hr to perhaps 12hr period for snowfall before moisture ends. This will be mainly around sunset tomorrow and through Sunday night/Monday morning. During this time, a strong mid to upper level jet will push against the Cascades which could aid some topography influence. The probability for accumulating snowfall is greatest around Crater Lake and similar elevations. The probability for 6.0" in 24 hours is about 45% for Crater Lake. Cascades in general are the highlighted area for accumulations with this event; however, we are not expecting any location to see amounts that would warrant an advisory or warning.

Looking ahead into next week, the upper level pattern indicates a potential split flow and really chaotic pattern in general. There will be multiple disturbances across the region, and its a little too early to say with much confidence the finer details. The one welcoming trend will be the increased chances for more precipitation. There is also a chance for moderate to heavy snowfall late next week into next weekend. Again, too early to talk about some of the details, but next week will see multiple rounds of rainfall, followed by snowfall chances late in the week. There will also be a cooler airmass late next week which could help aid snowfall accumulation.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM PST Sunday for ORZ030-031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.