textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge drifting from west to east will be in control of conditions to start this week, with daytime highs 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms expected across northern California and southern Oregon. This will put the Oregon coast in the low 70s north of Cape Blanco and mid to high 70s to the south. Even with models trending down slightly, most west side valleys look to be in the mid to high 90s. The Umpqua Valley is expected to remain in the low to mid 90s. A Heat Advisory remains in place for most west side valleys and exposed areas for Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening, with the Umpqua Valley excluded. To the east of the Cascades, daytime highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s.

On Tuesday, a short wave trough may bring just enough instability to trigger isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. For the moment, these slight ~15% chances are present in northern Lake and Klamath counties as well as in Siskiyou County.

On Wednesday, the upper ridge's influence will be reduced as it starts to leave the area. Daytime highs will still be generally 5-10 degrees above normal, but this looks to be below hazardous thresholds. Another shortwave trough may bring another round of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms east of the Cascades. As this timeframe is currently outside of high-res data, more detail on if and where these thunderstorms may develop will be possible as more accurate data becomes available.

Temperatures cool further on Thursday ahead of an upper trough's arrival. A cold front will reach the area early Friday morning, bringing chances of light showers to the coast, Douglas County, and the Cascades into the afternoon. A round of gusty afternoon and evening winds will be possible east of the Cascades. There's still some disagreement in long-term imagery if a low pressure system will dig low enough to bring widespread rainfall or if it will stay to the north and minimize precipitation. Models do agree that daytime highs look to fall below seasonal averages on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. -TAD

AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs

IFR to LIFR levels remain along the Oregon coast as onshore flow is keeping marine stratus in place. This layer looks to break up this morning as gusty northerly winds develop along the coast. As winds ease this evening, marine stratus is expected to return and bring lower flight levels to Brookings and North Bend.

Inland areas look to stay at VFR levels through the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 1000 PM PDT Sunday, June 21, 2026

North winds will continue to strengthen through Monday evening. The result will be strong northerly winds and very steep seas south of Cape Blanco while steep seas remain across most of the northern waters. There may be isolated areas of gale force gusts through Monday evening for areas south of Cape Blanco. A pattern of northerly winds is likely to continue through mid-week, with winds remaining at Small Craft Advisory strength south of Cape Blanco while fresh swell continues steep seas in the northern outer waters beyond 30 nm from shore.

Conditions briefly improve on Thursday. A cold frontal system is likely to bring light rain and a modest increase in fresh west- northwest swell Thursday night into early Saturday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024-026.

CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-370- 376.