textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

AVIATION...25/06Z TAFs

High clouds will move in over the area overnight into Sunday ahead of a frontal system offshore, but conditions will largely remain VFR. A few pockets of valley fog could develop, but those will be the exception more than the rule.

Southerly winds will increase Sunday along the coast and light rain will develop by noon around North Bend and then spread south and eastward during the afternoon. This will cause more widespread MVFR ceilings while areas of higher terrain in the coast ranges will become obscured. The front will push south and east Sunday night with rain and MVFR ceilings (terrain obscurations) developing west of the Cascades, including at Medford (around 08z). -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 509 PM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026/

DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 25/00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...25/00Z TAFs...High clouds will move in over the area tonight into Sunday ahead of a frontal system offshore, but conditions will largely remain VFR. A few pockets of valley fog could develop, but those will be the exception more than the rule. Southerly winds will increase Sunday along the coast and light rain will develop by noon around North Bend and then spread south and eastward during the afternoon. This will cause more widespread MVFR ceilings while areas of higher terrain in the coast ranges will become obscured. The front will push south and east Sunday night with rain and MVFR ceilings (terrain obscurations) developing west of the Cascades. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 155 PM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* A weak upper ridge will bring warmer temperatures today, with dry overnight flow over area peaks and ridgelines into early Sunday morning.

* A cold front arrives Sunday into Monday, with breezy winds and widespread precipitation chances.

* Snow levels will remain high enough to prevent winter impacts, but an inch or two of snow is possible over the higher Cascade passes Monday. * Showers linger into Tuesday. Then, additional systems are possible through the week, although signals for hazardous conditions are not currently present in guidance.

DISCUSSION...It was a cool morning across southern Oregon and far northern California, but with high pressure building overhead and mostly clear skies, it has turned into a mild fall day. Some high based cirrus clouds have started moving in overhead this afternoon, and these are the first signs of the next front that is expected to arrive in our area tomorrow.

Well offshore, west of British Columbia, satellite imagery shows a massive swirl of clouds making its way slowly but surely towards the Pacific Northwest. The center of this low will continue to trek our way, arriving just offshore of the mouth of the Columbia River by Sunday evening before pushing onshore somewhere along the northern Oregon coast by Monday morning. This will push a cold front through our forecast area Sunday night through Monday morning. South winds will increase ahead of the front, arriving at the coast by Sunday morning, followed shortly behind by rain around midday or early afternoon. The winds and rain will then push west to east across the area through the rest of Sunday and Sunday night. The band of pre-frontal rain is expected to only impact areas along and west of the Cascades before falling apart Sunday night, but then as the upper level trough passes overhead, shower chances spread to the entire area by late Monday morning. Showers then continue into Tuesday as a second, weaker upper level trough swings overhead, before precipitation tapers off Tuesday afternoon.

This will not be a particularly strong system, with winds remaining below advisory thresholds, and only light to moderate rainfall amounts. One point of note, however,r is that due to the weaker wind field and more westerly storm trajectory, precipitation amounts could overperform along the western slopes of the Cascades, where upslope production will be stronger, and within the Rogue Valley around Medford, which may not see the strong downsloping rain reduction typically seen during frontal systems.

Snow levels of around 7000 ft ahead of the front will drop to around 5000 ft behind it. This should keep any heavy snowfall above the passes during the more steady precipitation, but the showers Monday and Tuesday could put an inch or two total down on passes over those two days. Again, not a huge impact, but something for those travelling over the passes to keep an eye on.

Models are still having a hard time finding a consensus on the forecast for the rest of next week. They are, however, trending towards a wetter and cooler pattern than previous runs. If this pattern comes to pass, cool temperatures and shower chances would be present for much of the week ahead.

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

High clouds will be common across the region through much of this TAF cycle with overall light wind speeds for inland TAF sites. North Bend will have breezy conditions this afternoon becoming lighter and offshore (southeast) overnight. Even with the southeasterly flow overnight, we are expecting MVFR clouds to develop and continue through Sunday morning.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Saturday, October 24, 2026...Steep seas and gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco will improve gradually from north to south through tonight. Winds increase and shift to the south with building wind seas Sunday ahead of an approaching front that will also produce rain and lower visibility as it passes. Conditions improve late Monday or Tuesday, but will remain somewhat unsettled through the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370.