textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Very warm temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon and again Friday. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend.

* Dry, mild weather expected Sunday.

* A stronger low and front approach the coast Sunday night with modest rain chances Monday along the coast and offshore, but low chances for inland areas.

DISCUSSION

Through Friday, high pressure will remain in place with very warm temperatures and dry conditions. Highs are expected to be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal for inland areas. Coastal areas, which got warm today (82F at North Bend and 78F at Brookings as of 1 pm), will be a bit cooler Friday as onshore flow/marine influence gets back into the picture. Over the interior, breezy to gusty E-SE winds will persist over the mountains tonight into Friday morning. This will bring moderate to locally poor nighttime RH recoveries at higher elevations, and then low humidity for all areas during Friday afternoon. Some single digit minimum RH values are expected, especially in NorCal and east of the Cascades. This will bring elevated fire weather risk, so please be careful to avoid any unnecessary sparks.

Then, on Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will produce cloudier conditions across northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures are expected to be near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is some potential for breezy winds Saturday afternoon, especially along the coast and for areas east of the Cascades.

Sunday expect dry and mild conditions with morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades.

Low pressure and a cold front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs show the low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts southward Monday. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances are 30-50% for Monday/Monday night from the Cascades west (highest coast). Lower rain chances (10-30%) exist east of the Cascades and in NE California.

Tuesday into Wednesday, models continue to show the low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low. -Spilde

AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs updated early afternoon

18Z sounding showed 850mb winds of 25-30kt. The risk of bumpy departures/arrivals or even LLWS lessens as vertical mixing increases for a few hours this afternoon. However, once the sun sets this evening, the east to southeast winds are expected to continue over the mountains, while winds decouple from the boundary layer (surface winds go light) as the low-level inversion redevelops. Since those ESE winds will be just a couple of thousand feet off the surface (again approximately 25-30 kt), there's an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport beginning 01-03Z and lasting until about 15Z. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland.

VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals except for localized IFR/LIFR in patchy fog along the coast or coastal valleys tonight into Friday morning. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Thursday, October 15, 2026

Conditions improve today as winds weaken and seas become primarily dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells. A new swell will arrive around Saturday and push waves slightly higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.