textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...15/06Z TAFs

Most of the showers/t-storms from earlier this evening have dissipated, though there's still about a 10-15% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in NW parts of the area overnight.

The marine layer is thick along the coast and just inland, resulting in widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings and even some light rain/drizzle at times. Local LIFR has been showing up at some sites as well. We expect the marine layer to be deep enough to make another inland push to Roseburg overnight, impacting the terminal with MVFR from 11-19Z before clearing to VFR Saturday afternoon.

The rest of the area will be VFR overnight into Saturday. Isolated showers/t-storms could pop up again Saturday afternoon/evening in similar areas as today, but coverage should be less. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Friday, August 14, 2026

Easing north winds and low seas will continue into Saturday morning, with sub- advisory conditions into Sunday morning. North winds will reach advisory strength south of Cape Blanco Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with a potential for steep seas to return on Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 1040 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonable temperatures, dry, and breezy conditions continue to be the overall theme going forward

* Isolated thunderstorm chances continue overnight near Lane County, and then Saturday afternoon in northern Klamath County, with the main risk being lightning and gusty erratic winds

* Areas of smoke remain possible due to nearby wildfires

DISCUSSION...

The trough pattern over the western CONUS continues today with this general pattern continuing well into later parts of next week as southwesterly flow aloft dominates the region. There is now much better agreement in the upper levels well into later parts of next week which helps confidence in the overall forecast key messages.

For today, model guidance and satellite imagery show a shortwave entering the region. Vorticity maxima is on track to help support thunderstorm development this afternoon. The best chance will be for areas around Crater Lake and north through parts of this evening, and this would include northern Klamath and Lake counties as well. Similar to yesterday, we could see a cell or two go past midnight, in northern Douglas County but this may be more of shower activity versus thunderstorm activity.

For Saturday, we should really be confined to areas around Crater Lake and north. Perhaps eastern parts of Douglas County in the morning, but the marine layer has been making good pushes overnight and well into Douglas County. This stable layer may likely inhibit any thunderstorm activity, but cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm Saturday morning before better chances start in the afternoon. Again, this would be mainly for areas around Crater Lake and north for the better chances.

Sunday does look like a break in thunderstorm activity, but chances could return Monday. However, this would be very isolated again for northern parts of Klamath and Lake counties as our pattern remains in place. Tuesday and Wednesday we are going to be on the cusp of high pressure aloft, so it will depend on where the trough axis ends up. At this time, we do have 5-15% chances both days for thunderstorms. Thursday there is better agreement on a closed low developing within the overall trough pattern which could increase thunderstorm chances in future forecast, but at this time we only have around 5-15% for eastside areas.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.