textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* A high risk of sneaker waves through this evening at beaches.

* Cool, seasonable temperatures through mid-week. Light precipitation, mainly in northern California, on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

* A weak, weakening cold front will push into the coast early Wednesday evening with light rain likely. Also, a slight chance to chance of rain for southwest Oregon and northern Klamath County during Wednesday night with snow levels around 6000 to 7000 feet.

* A warming trend Thursday through Saturday. The southern end of another weak system brushes past Coos, Douglas, and northern Klamath counties on Friday with a slight chance to chance of light rain.

* As early as Saturday night, but more likely on Sunday, another similarly weak, northward focused system will bring slight cooling, and may bring light rain to western Oregon.

* Higher uncertainty beyond Sunday, but a break is likely during the day on Monday...ahead of a continued active but potentially more impactful pattern next week.

DISCUSSION

For a seasonably active pattern, weather impacts during the next week will remain relatively minor. Our area will more accurately be brushed rather than hit with a series of disturbances.

High clouds will remain thick through Tuesday morning. Similar to this morning, low clouds and fog are expected in the Umpqua Valley from late evening into Tuesday morning, with patchy coverage forming around sunrise in the Rogue Valley. A trough that is now far offshore of northern California will track east into the state during Tuesday then continue into Nevada on Tuesday night. The highest probability is for light rain of less than a tenth of an inch in Siskiyou and Modoc counties during the afternoon and evening. The more substantial rainfall will occur to the south, from Eureka to the northern San Francisco Bay Area.

Compared to Tuesday morning, brief ridging late Tuesday night into Wednesday has a slightly higher probability, longer expected duration of west side valley low clouds and fog.

In a flip from the previous event, precipitation with the next frontal system late Wednesday through Wednesday night till around sunrise on Thursday will be focused north of our area. The weakening cold front is expected to have sufficient strength to deliver around a tenth of an inch to the coast and lighter amounts inland...mainly for Douglas County.

Warming temperatures and variable amounts of high clouds are expected Thursday into Thursday night. Another front on Friday is expected to be similar, slightly weaker than the late Wednesday system, with the focus for precipitation north of our area.

Ridging on Saturday will bring another break between systems. A third northern focused system is likely as early as Saturday night. There is a higher uncertainty regarding the strength of this system, with the operational ECMWF decidedly on the strong end of the spectrum of solutions. A majority of ensemble solutions indicate it will be similar to its two predecessors, with a measureable amount of rain at least at the southern Oregon coast.

A majority of solutions also indicate a break between systems on Monday. The length of that break is highly uncertain with an expectation for low pressure in the northern Pacific to finally bring at least one substantial precipitation producer to our area during that 8 to 14 day timeframe/next week.

AVIATION....03/00Z

Conditions are mainly VFR through this evening with a layer of high clouds in place. Overnight, expect areas of low clouds or fog to develop in the Umpqua Basin around 11Z and persisting to around 18Z. As high clouds thin briefly in the late night and early Tuesday morning, there is a low chance (15%) for local IFR/LIFR in fog to develop in Rogue Valley, including the vicinities of Grants Pass and Medford, around sunrise (14Z through 17Z). Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions. During the day Tuesday, a weak low will move into Northern California. This will bring showers Tuesday afternoon, mainly to Siskiyou and Modoc counties.

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Monday, November 2, 2026

Long period west-northwest swell will maintain elevated steep seas in the outer waters through tonight. Meanwhile, a shorter period southwest swell builds into the waters tonight into Tuesday with seas also becoming high and steep in the inner waters Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Conditions briefly improve on Wednesday. An active pattern resumes Wednesday night with building seas, including another long period west-northwest swell.

Seas may become high and steep again on Thursday with the long period swell dominated seas forecast to reach a peak on Friday night at around 13 to 17 feet at 15 to 17 seconds. An active weather pattern will likely continue during the weekend into next week.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1100 AM PST Monday, November 2, 2026

Long period WNW swell will continue building into the area into this evening. Originating from near the western Aleutian Islands, these high-energy waves will have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and will likely produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to around 8 to 11 feet at 15 to 17 seconds. The sneaker wave risk will also be enhanced during the incoming high tide early this evening. The risk of sneaker waves will lessen later tonight as wave periods become shorter.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ021- 022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350- 356-370-376.