textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Hot, dry, and breezy/windy conditions are the overall theme going forward resulting in elevated fire weather conditions

* Cooler and more widepsread seasonable temperatures start Monday but areas of triple digit highs remain over western Siskiyou County through next week

* Areas of smoke remain possible due to nearby wildfires which could bring unhealthy air quality

* Uncertainty exists but early signs pointing at thunderstorm chances increasing this weekend into early next week

DISCUSSION

The overall pattern for the next several days will be noted by high pressure over the Four Corners Region, resulting in a general southwest to zonal flow at 500mb over the forecast area through Tuesday. This pattern will continue to bring hot, dry, and breezy/windy conditions through Monday with more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday for most areas. This will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions today and tomorrow. By Tuesday night, we start to see the high over the Four Corners region slide east/southeast. At this time, a trough does develop over the west coast, and this pattern does look to remain over the west coast for several days. Not seeing any notable impacts at this time given the cooler temperatures and better overnight recoveries by mid week which should limit fire weather concerns.

There is uncertainty as we get later in the week as the upper level pattern has changed and we are not seeing the closed low over the California coast now. Instead, around Friday/Saturday, a closed low now looks to form over the Gulf of Alaska and move into the PacNW through the weekend/Monday. We will see increased chances for thunderstorms through this stretch, but at this time its tough to say with much confidence when this will likely occur. Ensembles are mixed and have precipitation through the weekend and into Monday, but many members are also dry. At this time, Saturday is looking like the best day for thunderstorms given potential MUCAPE. However, the upper level low doesn't move out of the region until Monday night/Tuesday morning. Things should become more clear over the coming days, but the main takeaway is we have a chance for thunderstorms this weekend/Monday.

Lastly, smoke will be the other factor as the diurnal wind pattern continues to spread areas of smoke across the forecast area. Smoke is very difficult to forecast with uncertainties involved in fire activity/suppression and exactly how much smoke will be introduced into the atmosphere. That said, expect areas of smoke until an airmass change occurs.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

The pattern will remain unchanged for this cycle. This means another marine layer impacting KOTH with IFR ceilings, but we will see relief early this afternoon as the marine layer dissipates. Inland TAF sites will see plenty of sunshine and VFR conditions except for KLMT. The wildfire near KLMT will bring smoke into the area. This will result in an MVFR ceiling and haze which will reduce visibilities. This is a low confidence scenario due to smoke being so hard to predict, but without an airmass change expecting similar conditions to yesterday.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 330 AM PDT Sunday, August 9, 2026

Gusty north winds are present over area waters, with areas of gale force gusts and very steep seas south of Port Orford. Elsewhere, gusty winds and steep seas are expected. These conditions will continue into at least Monday evening but could persist through Wednesday. Winds look to ease on Thursday but unsettled seas could continue into next weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.