textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Overall low impact forecast through at least Thursday night

* Weakening front today brings another round of light to moderate precipitation from Cascades/Shasta Valley westward (high snow levels) along with gusty south to southwest winds.

* The southern end of a front brushes the coast north of Cape Blanco on Tuesday, otherwise dry weather with warmer afternoons (10-15 degrees above normal) Tuesday through Thursday.

* A period of active weather is likely to start Friday or Saturday and continue into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Ample mid and high level cloud cover is seen streaming over the region on satellite this morning. Somewhat discernible through this higher level cloud cover is areas of stratus and fog in some valleys. Quiet weather will continue through much of the morning before a front passes through the region later this morning through this evening. This will be a low impact system with high snow levels (around 8000 ft) and precipitation focused mainly along/west of the Cascades/Shasta Valley. Expect an increase in southwest winds today for most areas. Gusts of 20-30 mph will be common along the coast/terrain/East Side. Valleys should be sheltered from these gusty winds except for the SW-NE oriented Illinois Valley.

In general, over the next 24-hours, expect around 0.50" for the coast and higher terrain, though southwest flow will enhance precipitation amounts for the Curry County coastal mountains where 1" amounts are possible. For the remainder of the West Side, precipitation totals will generally range between 0.25"-0.50", dropping to around 0.10" for the Rogue Valley, and even less for points south and eastward. Dry conditions should persist east of the Shasta Valley/Klamath Falls.

Dry and warm conditions return for Tuesday through at least Thursday as high pressure amplifies over the Intermountain West and a trough deepens over the eastern Pacific. This is a pattern we've continued to see for the past few weeks, despite longer range guidance continuing to showing the potential for a more persistent active/cooler pattern. Lows will be seasonably cold, but high temperatures will hover around 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, resulting in mid 60s for the East Side/upper 60s maybe low 70s for the West Side.

Much like the last few weeks, another repeat of splitting flow is expected Thursday. As the offshore trough continues to deepen, the upper level energy splits. The southern branch moves inland into California and the northern branch gets directed at the Vancouver Island/Seattle region. This has left our area on the southern fringe of weakening fronts with either little to no precipitation and warmer than normal temperatures and Thursday is no exception.

Guidance continues to show a pattern change for the weekend as the southern energy undercuts the ridge and potentially allows a much deeper low from the northwest to move into the region. Models have had quite the difficulty in timing with this pattern change, which gives lower confidence in the faster EC solutions and the overall timing. The ECMWF remains on the faster side of the cluster of solutions with moderate to heavy rain moving into the west side during Friday. Meanwhile, the GFS happens to be on the slow side with moderate to heavy rain holding off at the coast until Saturday and not making much inland progress until Saturday night. Precipitation associated with frontal passage may be limited to the coast, though around 10-15% of members extend it into inland portions of the West Side. Very few of the ensemble members are faster than the ECMWF or slower than the GFS. Snow levels are forecast to be around 7000 feet before falling to around 5000-5500 ft Saturday, then potentially down to 4000-5000 ft Sunday into Monday. We'll also need to monitor the potential for strong winds in the Friday-Saturday time frame as the deterministic models are hinting at a deepening surface low just offshore. Stay tuned for updates.

AVIATION...08/12Z TAFs

A mix of mid-high level cloud cover is limiting fog development this morning. Patchy fog is present, however, in portions of the Klamath and Coquille Basins bringing LIFR conditions that should improve shortly after sunrise. MVFR ceilings are present in the Rogue Valley with VFR ceilings in the remainder of the West Side Valleys. A front will push onshore later this morning, bringing gusty winds that will first improve the LIFR conditions, then bring lowering ceilings and increasing terrain obscurations west of the Cascades. In general, a mix of MVFR/low end VFR is expected for the West Side with VFR conditions for the East Side and south of the OR/CA border. Periods of rain are expected along and west of the Cascades late this morning and afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the coastal waters and along the immediate coast between 21z-00z today.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Monday, November 9, 2026

Long period west swell will maintain warning level seas through this morning. Swell lowers some today but south winds increase with gale gusts expected north of Cape Blanco. This will produce large and steep to very steep seas across the waters. South winds briefly diminish Monday night, but steep seas and advisory strength south winds are likely through the end of the week as several systems pass through the region.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350- 370.

Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-370.