textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)

Key Points:

* Only minor impacts expected the next several days * Warm, above normal temperatures this weekend * Low pressure enters the region Sunday - Precip chances start Sunday and continue through Wednesday - Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday * Drying trend towards the end of the week

Further Details:

The forecast area will be under high pressure today with a transition occuring tomorrow as an upper low strengthens off the coast. This low eventually becomes a cut-off from the main flow and will meander over the ocean/west coast for a couple days before coming inland Tuesday into Wednesday.

Initially, we will see precipitation chances increase tomorrow along/near the coast and eventually spreading west to east through midweek. We are not seeing a signal for heavy rain through this stretch, but rather a consistent light rain for a few days. Rainfall totals for 72 hours ending Thursday morning could end up around 1.00"-1.50" for the higher end amounts. Highest amounts are expected along/near the coast and northern California. Cascades could also see the higher amounts of QPF before switching over to snow. Westside valleys and eastside areas will be considerably less with 72 hour totals only around 0.25"-0.50". MUCAPE values on Tuesday are around 200-500 J/kg, so we are expecting at least some isolated thunder. MUCAPE on Wednesday is only around a couple hundred J/kg so likely less chance for lightning. No expecting any severe weather but lightning and occasional strong gusts (30-45 mph) will be possible through this stretch.

Snow levels eventually drop low enough Tuesday night for snow accumulation over the Cascades, eastside areas, and northern California. Through Wednesday, snow amounts wont be enough to warrant any hazard products at this time. That said, 48 hour totals through Thursday morning could end up being around 4-8 inches with the higher end amounts over the Cascades, mountains of Siskiyou County, and Warner mountains.

By Thursday, upper level low which will bring precipitation through midweek will be absorbed back into the main flow. A dry north/northwesterly flow will become evident over the forecast area. While the NBM holds onto spotty PoPs Thursday onward, we are anticipating precipitation chances to dwindle Thursday through at least parts of next weekend. Models differences in the extended come to fruition around Saturday. For example, the EC wants to develop a weak area of low pressure which could bring precipitation Saturday but the Canadian and the GFS both remain dry. At this time, confidence is low on the details after Friday.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with thickening high clouds and generally light winds. Southerly winds will increase and become gusty in the Shasta Valley and over the East Side Sunday afternoon. Even portions of the Rogue Valley could turn locally breezy. Precipitation chances remain low during Sunday. However, some light rain and lower ceilings could impact the marine waters. Eventually, higher rain chances and lowering ceilings move onto the coast Sunday night.

-Spilde

MARINE

Updated 1230 PM PDT Saturday, April 18, 2026...Southerly winds will increase tonight, but with relatively low seas. Low pressure offshore will bring a return of active weather Sunday into Wednesday, with increasing swell and periods of gusty south winds. Winds are likely to be strongest from Sunday morning through Monday evening with a period of steep seas hazardous to small craft mostly beyond 10 NM from shore. Conditions should improve a bit Tuesday, then increasing NW swell should bring an increase in seas again Wednesday into Thursday.

-Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376.