textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion Updated.

AVIATION...14/06z TAFs

Areas of low stratus and fog are present in valleys west of the Cascades, resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions at Medford, Grants Pass and Montague. Overnight, IFR/LIFR is also expected to develop in other valleys west of the Cascades as well in the Klamath Basin, including Klamath Falls. These conditions will persist through 18-20z Saturday. Some areas, such as Medford and Grants Pass may see little or no clearing, and just see ceilings lift higher late in the afternoon to IFR/MVFR and persist into the evening.

Along the coast and just offshore, satellite image shows a marine stratus surge moving up along the coast. This is expected to bring IFR/LIFR from Gold Beach south tonight and Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak front could result in low stratus north of Cape Blanco with mainly IFR/MVFR but local LIFR. These ceilings are expected to persist into late Sunday morning. Sunday night, another front approaches the coast. This is expected to bring chances for MVFR at North Bend after 06z 12/15.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 208 PM PST Sat Dec 13 2025/

DISCUSSION...Much like the last few days, satellite image shows low clouds persisting in the Rogue, Illinois, and Shasta Valleys. Elsewhere it's clear and will remain clear through this evening. It's likely the low clouds will persist Rogue and Illinois Valley through the afternoon and tonight. However, low clouds and fog are likely again in the valleys in Douglas county, Scott, Klamath River, and Shasta Valley late this evening through Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, low clouds and fog should burn off late this afternoon in the Shasta Valley, only to re-form again late this evening and lasting through at least early Sunday afternoon.

The upper ridge will weaken slightly as a weak front moves in from the west Sunday. Given the weak shortwave and surface front will be running into the stronger upper ridging, the most likely scenario is the front will weaken and dissipate as it reaches the coast Sunday afternoon. Per the usual the NBM solution is too bullish (meaning pops are too high and too far inland) which does not add up given the above mentioned. To further support this thinking, the majority of the individual ensemble members, and the operational models also show the front weakening and dissipating as it reaches the coast and inland, and has been showing this solution the past few days.

Sunday will be the last quiet day of the forecast period. The pattern will become more active starting Monday and is likely to last for the next7-10 days. In a relative sense, it will seem like a significant change with bouts of moderate to heavy rain high elevation mountains snow. However, it's not all that unusual to have active weather of this magnitude this time of the year.

The first front will arrive at the coast early Monday morning bringing rain and gusty winds to the coast, north of Cape Blanco. Precipitation will move inland during the day Monday, with winds increasing east of the Cascades. The bulk of the precipitation Monday will be along the coast, coastal mountains and Cascades, Most of the Rogue Valley could end up dry during the day Monday with not much more than a few light rain showers due to the non-favorable southwest flow. Also areas east of the Cascades will likely get little to nothing, but it will be windy in the afternoon.

For the remainder of week, we'll have a series of fronts moving through the area bringing more rain, mountain snow. Moderate to occasionally strong winds are also possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning east of the Cascades, with the higher terrain at highest risk for strong winds. It looks like we'll catch a relative break in the action Wednesday when snow levels lower, but that means road snow concerns will be limited.

A stronger storm will arrive Thursday bringing another round of moderate to heavy precipitation. Strong winds will be a concern Thursday, especially east of the Cascades where some of the guidance shows 700 mb winds between 60-70 kts over a large chunk of real estate east of the Cascades.

The main issue will be the timing and exact track of of each individual system which is likely to vary from day to day.

Looking beyond next week leading up to Christmas Holiday, there's strong evidence that's being supported by the ECMWF, GEFS ensemble means and clusters, we'll be heading into a colder and wet pattern with storms originating from the Gulf of Alaska as we get towards the following weekend through at least Christmas Day.

These typically result in colder temperatures, and precipitation with lower snow levels. The pattern shows below normal 500 mb anomalies with a stronger upper troughing in the western U.S. with ridging and above normal 500 mb anomalies in the northeastern part of the U.S. The anomalies being shown are pretty significant this far out which is unusual since they tend to "wash out" and lean more towards climatology.

This is a almost the opposite of the pattern we have experienced for almost the last three weeks, with stronger ridging in the western part of the U.S. and deep upper troughing in the northeastern part of the U.S. In other words, the switch basically gets flipped as the overall pattern changes. -Petrucelli

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PST Saturday, December 13, 2025...Relatively calm conditions will persist through early Sunday with breezy south winds and sub-advisory seas expected. Winds increase through Sunday as a frontal system approaches the area. Conditions are likely to remain below advisory criteria until Sunday afternoon, but winds will approach advisory criteria north of Cape Blanco Sunday morning. This could lead to a brief period of steep seas north of Cape Arago before more widespread steep seas develop across all areas Sunday afternoon.

Worsening conditions are expected Sunday evening into Monday as low pressure deepens over the north Pacific and a cold front swings through the waters Sunday night into Monday. This front is expected to bring southerly gales to areas north of Cape Blanco and beyond 5 nm from shore late Sunday night through Monday afternoon with very steep and hazardous seas expected for all other areas. Winds ease Monday afternoon, but westerly swell builds (10-12 ft @ 12 seconds) behind the front which will maintain steep seas into mid-week. Additional frontal systems will maintain active weather through the week with gales possible again on Tuesday and Thursday, along with continued steep to, at times, very steep and hazardous seas. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-370.