textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

A developing cutoff low remains the guiding influence for weather across northern California and southern Oregon this weekend. For today, southerly flow aloft and unstable atmospheric conditions will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast for today. As of this Discussion, a pair of thunderstorms have already developed over northern Lake County. Model guidance shows the highest CAPE values (900-1200 J/Kg) over Josephine County and along the Cascades, as well as some 400-600 J/Kg values over Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties. SPC CAMs are focusing expectations on these areas, with chances of isolated to scattered development across Lake and Klamath counties as well. Any thunderstorms that develop are likely to be pulse/cellular, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Activity decreases quickly into tonight.

The cutoff low will move eastwards over California through Sunday and Monday. This will bring more rain showers as well as embedded thunderstorms. With the track of the cutoff remaining farther south, Siskiyou and Modoc counties will see chances for rainfall (50-70%) and thunderstorms (20-30%) on both Sunday and Monday. Looking into Oregon, chances for rainfall (40-60%) and thunderstorms (20-25%) on Sunday afternoon and evening will be focused west of the Cascades, although some east side areas may see light rainfall. On Monday, activity looks to be mostly limited to southern Lake and Klamath counties with stray activity farther north. These chances can fluctuate depending on the actual path of the low, as cutoffs can be finicky with how they travel.

A few showers may linger into Tuesday morning in eastern Modoc and southeastern Lake counties as the cutoff's influence dwindles. An upper ridge settles in place, setting up a warm and dry period for the week ahead. Inland valleys and basins on either side of the Cascades are forecast to be in the high 70s to mid 80s on Wednesday and Thursday while the Oregon coast stays in the mid 60s. A front passing to the north could flatten the ridge and bring slight relief on Friday and possibly into the weekend. -TAD

AVIATION...02/18Z TAFs

Aside from MVFR/IFR ceilings along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin this morning, VFR conditions prevail across the region and will do so through the TAF period. A few isolated showers are ongoing today, then shower/thunderstorm coverage will increase later this afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes again. The highest chances (50-70%) for lightning are focused along the Cascades north of Crater Lake, across the Modoc/Warners east of the Cascades and in the Kalmiopsis region. Chances are fairly low for thunderstorms at the TAF locations, but there is about a 10-20% chance of a thunderstorm impacting Medford and/or Klamath Falls this afternoon. Expect gusty and erratic outflows in the vicinity of thunderstorms today. Additionally, gusty south to south to southeast winds are expected this afternoon/evening.

A wind reversal is expected along the coast tonight into tomorrow morning, with low ceilings and/or fog spreading north along the coastline and into the coastal valleys, including at North Bend, through the latter half of the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 730 AM PDT Saturday, May 2, 2026.

A thermal trough pattern will bring gusty north winds with steep to very steep and hazardous seas through this evening. The strongest winds and very steep seas are expected south of Gold Beach today, with steep seas elsewhere. Conditions improve some this afternoon as winds begin to weaken, with only steep seas expected for all areas from Coos Bay southward. Winds diminish moreso late tonight while a longer period northwest swell builds, then becomes dominant later Sunday into Monday along with a fresh north swell. Relatively quiet conditions are expected for much of next week.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1100 AM PDT Saturday May 2, 2026

A short period northwest swell and a building long period northwest swell may combine their energy to produce unpredictable waves washing up on area beaches this weekend. The risk will be highest around sunrise on Sunday morning.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Never turn away from the ocean!

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 PM PDT this evening through Sunday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.