textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...22/00Z TAFs

Isolated showers will be mostly in northern California to the east of Interstate 5 this evening. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out and have a 10 to 20% chance of occuring in northern California. Coverage is expected to increase from southeast to northwest after 09z/Thursday and continue through Thursday. Expect lowering ceilings and increasing terrain obscurations, but with conditions expected to remain VFR through Thursday afternoon for terminals east of the Coastal Range. Showers on Thursday will be mainly from the Cascades eastward in northern California and south central Oregon (including Klamath Falls). But, some lighter showers are also expected to develop in southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou County during Thursday.

IFR ceilings and visibilities will likely return to locations along the coast tonight into Thursday morning. Fog and LIFR visibilities are possible, although odds are the boundary layer will have some mixing between the surface and 500 feet. The chance of fog around 1/4 mile near KOTH is about 40%.

MARINE...Updated 220 PM PDT Wednesday, October 21, 2026

A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast through Friday morning. Tonight into Thursday, north winds increase with steep seas south of Cape Blanco spreading north of Cape Blanco, especially Thursday afternoon. Advisory level north winds and steep seas continue Thurday night into Friday morning with very steep seas beyond 5 NM from shore and south of Ophir. Conditions improve north of Cape Blanco on Friday as north winds ease, but hazardous conditions will persist in the south. Improvement in all areas is expected over the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 252 PM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Wetting rain is expected east of the Cascades this evening into tonight. There is a 20% chance of cloud to ground lightning in northern California this evening into Thursday morning

* A dry cold front moves through Thursday night. Cold overnight lows and clear skies will bring frost and freeze to valleys west of the Cascades.

* Temperatures trend warmer on Saturday as a thermal trough moves inland.

* 20-30% chance of rain Sunday into Monday as a low could push into the state.

DISCUSSION...

A closed low to our south is kicking up showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Some cloud to cloud flashes have already been observed from this morning into this afternoon. We'll see that lightning potential move north into Modoc and Siskiyou County according to forecast data from the REFS. Showers should also spread northwards later this evening into tonight. The probability of precipitation has increased compared to 24 hours ago west of the Cascades and Medford now has a 25-30% chance of rain Thursday morning. However, the bulk of this rain will still fall east of the Cascades. We're forecasting around 0.4 inches over Alturas and Lakeview with under 0.1 inches for locations west of the Cascades.

By Thursday, a short wave trough will push through the Pacific Northwest and kick out the low spinning in California. In addition, we'll see a cold front dive into our region with temperatures trending notably cooler. The weather impact here will be frost and freezing temperatures overnight. We've already hit our freeze here in Medford and most other locations west of the Cascades. However, Roseburg could see some frost by Saturday morning with clear skies and temperatures falling into the mid 30's.

A thermal trough will also build over the coast by Thursday night into Friday morning and really strengthen by Friday afternoon and evening. No major impacts here, although it will be windy in the Kalmiopsis wilderness Friday night with temperatures in Brookings warming into the upper 60's by Saturday. Other locations will trend warmer by Saturday with highs in the lower 70's to upper 60's west of the Cascades and lower 60's east of the Cascades.

Things could change heading into Sunday, although ensembles are still split on exactly what will happen. A minority of members 30-40% are bringing a trough and cold front closer to the coast and bringing some light rain west of the Cascades. Meanwhile, the rest are keeping conditions dry here Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Heading beyond Sunday confidence is pretty low in the forecast. It seems ensembles want to push the closed low over the Pacific farther inland, which will increase the PoP forecast into the lower 20's. Where exactly this low will track is questionable in addition to how much moisture there could be. However, the QPF varies from 0.01 to 0.25 inches if it does rain, so we're not looking at anything really wet next week.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM Thursday to 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.