textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm temperatures will persist through the week with new high temperature records being set over some stations.

* A cold front will move through around Friday evening with a very low chance of rain over the region.

* Cooler weather will continue into the weekend with some cooler than normal overnight lows.

DISCUSSION

A broad ridge will remain in place over the west coast this afternoon keeping temperatures well above normal for early October. The end result will be temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Mount Shasta City's old record of 88 is the only record that appears to be at risk this afternoon. We're still forecasting a high of 88, although the currently hourly temperatures are tending a bit behind the forecast.

In any case, Mount Shasta's high temperature record of 88 on Wednesday is also at risk as we're forecasting a high of 89. Not much change in the overall synoptic pattern, although the thermal trough appears more visible with inverted 850 mb heights and 1000-500 mb thickness contours along the coast and west of the Cascades. Offshore flow should also pick up a bit Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Definitely a late summer pattern on Wednesday.

By Thursday, the 500 mb ridge starts to flatten, although temperatures stay in the lower 90's west of the Cascades. Klamath Fall's old record of 87 has a chance to fall or perhaps be tied as we're forecasting 86. In addition, Mt Shasta City's old record of 88 set in 2022 is at risk of falling to a new high of 89.

Things finally start to change late Thursday into Friday with a deep trough falling out of Canada. This will help push temperatures 5 to 10 degrees lower. It also appears the cold front associated with this trough has sped up compared to 24 hours ago. As of now, models are bringing this cold front through Friday evening instead of Friday night as we wrote yesterday. It's still looking like a mostly dry front, although there are ensemble members that are putting down some light rain along the cold front. The NBM currently has a 10-20% chance of rain Friday evening. Oddly enough, the PoP forecast is peaking in the southern end of the Rogue Valley where we should be under some enhanced upslope flow. We'll see if Ashland and the Siskiyous see rain while Medford stays dry.

By Saturday, the upper level trough from Canada will start to traverse the forecast area. The temperature drop will be notable and push us to 'fall' like weather. Highs in Medford will fall to 66 degrees Saturday afternoon, which is almost a 30 degree drop compared to Thursday afternoon. We'll have a 20% chance of some showers in southern Lake and Modoc Counties Saturday afternoon as the low moves through.

The cooler fall like weather will continue Sunday into Monday next week. The overnight lows will be approaching freezing in areas west of the Cascades. The latest forecast has some mid to lower 30's around the Rogue and Illinois valleys. These lows could be too low as a trough will be overhead and some cloud cover should prevent us from cooling off too much.

Overall, warm and quiet weather continues through the remainder of the week before a cold front shoves us into fall. Minimal impacts anticipated over the next 7 days.

-Smith

AVIATION

Fog and low stratus have cleared out along the coast this afternoon with just a small area of clouds south of Charleston. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist across the area through the afternoon and early evening hours. More LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to fill into the coast later tonight into Wednesday morning.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, October 6, 2026

A persisting thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas during much of the week ahead. As typical in these patterns, the strongest winds and highest seas will be south of Cape Blanco, with very steep seas expected from Gold Beach southward. Winds will be strongest during the afternoons/evenings and very steep seas will return daily during the evenings and overnight periods. Fluctuations in the thermal trough could bring very steep seas northward to around Bandon late Wednesday into Thursday, but the overall pattern will change very little until late week/into the weekend.

A pattern change may bring active weather towards the end of the week. Marine rainfall is unlikely, but additional gusty northerly winds and persisting unsettled seas are possible. Guidance continues to show incoming long period westerly swell arriving at some point over the weekend, likely originating from a storm currently off the coast of Japan and the active tropics. Confidence is increasing that we will see the first long period swells of the season this weekend into early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ376.