textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered light to locally moderate showers will develop across much of the area this afternoon and evening. Halloween trick or treaters may see light rain at times during the 5pm-8pm evening period.

* Dry conditions return Sunday and Monday.

* Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal into early next week.

* There is a moderate to high risk for sneaker waves along the coast Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* Middle to late next week, potential for additional disturbances to bring light to moderate precipitation.

DISCUSSION

A weak upper low and trough are along the coast. This trough will gradually move inland this evening and tonight. As it moves onshore this afternoon and evening, light scattered showers are expected to develop across much of the area. The best chances for showers will be across western Siskiyou northward into the Siskiyou Mountains and Cascades. For areas west of the Cascades, isolated to scattered showers are expected late today and this evening. Additionally, moisture moving up from the south will also bring some showers into east side areas, especially Modoc and southern Lake counties.

Shower activity will peak today in the late afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts are generally light with around a trace to a few hundreths of an inches in 3 hours but locally higher amounts around 0.10 inch are possible (30-50% chance), mainly for the mountains, in the Ashland area as well as across eastern Modoc and southern Lake counties.

The trough shifts eastward, with showers diminishing overnight and early Sunday morning. High pressure begins to build in on Sunday and remains in place through Monday night. With high pressure in place Sunday and Monday, expect cool to cold morning temperatures, warmer daytime temperatures and dry weather. Areas of morning fog are expected for inland valleys and along the coast.

Looking further out, models have trended faster with a weak low moving onshore over southern Oregon and northern California around Tuesday. This will bring chances for light showers across the area. Then, a weakening front moves into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into Thursday with additional light precipitation, mainly along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. A potentially stronger front follows late in the week, around Friday. However, models and ensembles continue to show significant differences for late next week period on the track and timing of any fronts. So, confidence is low on the details for precipitation during this period.

MARINE

Updated 1200 PM PDT Saturday, October 31, 2026...Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue through today. Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength through the weekend. Seas will be low through Sunday morning, dominated by a mix of west- northwest and south swell. West-northwest swell is expected to build into the waters Sunday and Monday, with swell building from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to around 8 to 10 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon. This will result in steep combined seas of over 10 feet on Monday. Seas gradually lower Tuesday night into Wednesday.

BEACH HAZARDS

Updated 1200 PM PDT Saturday, October 31, 2026...Guidance continues to depict a long period WNW swell building into the area Sunday and persisting into early next week. Originating from near the western Aleutian Islands, the swell arrives along the Oregon coast Sunday afternoon at 2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to 4 to 6 feet at 19 seconds Sunday night then to around 8 to 10 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon. So expect the sneaker wave risk will be most prominent Sunday night through Monday during the incoming high tides. Wave periods drop below 15 seconds Monday night; as a result, the risk of sneaker waves will lessen by Tuesday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for PZZ350-356.