textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...06/06Z TAFs

VFR prevails across the region with widespread high and mid level clouds and terrain obscurations. An area of showers will persist tonight into Sunday morning, and a few of these showers will be capable of producing lightning. VFR should prevail for most areas overnight, though brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible under heavier showers/precipitation. A period of IFR/LIFR conditions is possible along the coast late this evening before showers become more widespread, with ceilings expected to lift to at least MVFR. Increased shower activity will persist into Sunday afternoon, with thunderstorm chances increasing after 18z for areas along and east of the I-5 corridor.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 446 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Rain shower and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Sunday east of and along the Cascades, with lighter activity farther west.

* A warming trend and dry conditions are expected from the start of the week into Wednesday or Thursday.

* Substantial model variability exists for the end of the week. PRecipitation chances have trended downward but remain at 20-30%. In the absence of precipitation, gusty west winds are possible east of the Cascades.

DISCUSSION...Warmer temperatures remain in the forecast today as a cutoff low within an upper trough lingering over the area weakens, although highs remain 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal norms. Flow over terrain is allowing cumulus to develop, but little activity has been noticeable on radar. Observations across the area show a few hundreths over remote areas but little of specific interest. Calmer conditions continue through the rest of the day. Clear skies tonight may allow for enough radiative cooling to bring local frost conditions (overnight lows of 33-36 degrees for at least 3 hours) for lower elevation areas east of the Cascades, but no Advisories will be issued this afternoon as meeting the duration threshold is generally questionable.

Late tonight into early Sunday morning, the trough starts to swing inland. This motion will bring another 5 to 10 degrees of cooling from today's daytime highs. Wraparound flow from the cutoff will bring the best rain shower chances along and east of the Cascades. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are possible over northern parts of Lake and Klamath counties as well as along the Cascades. Lighter amounts, mostly 0.10 inches or less, are possible for other east side areas and along the western Cascades foothills. Isolated showers are possible farther west. Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances follow a similar pattern, with 30% chances over and north of Crater Lake. East side areas have 15-25% chances, while chances to the west are 15% or less. Shower and thunderstorm chances dissipate into Sunday night.

Warm and dry conditions remain in the forecast for much of the week ahead. Increasing influence from both Pacific and continental ridges are bringing forecast temperatures up above seasonal norms for Wednesday and Thursday. For Friday and beyond, model variability is enough to keep substantial questions about any one outcome. Deterministic imagery for both the GFS and ECMWF show an upper trough helping to cool temperatures, while a sharp gradient may bring gusty westerly winds east of the Cascades. Turning to ensemble guidance, precipitation chances have trended downward but 20% (ECMWF) to 30% (GFS) chances for precipitation remain for the end of the week. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Saturday, September 5, 2026...Light, northerly winds will continue this evening and later tonight. Low seas along with a few showers will persist through Sunday night. A thermal trough develops Monday and persists through Monday night, with gusty north winds and steep seas likely south of Port Orford through mid-week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.