textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* An approaching cutoff low could bring nocturnal thunderstorm chances tonight into Wednesday morning. Additional afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances are in the forecast on Wednesday and Thursday.

* Temperatures will generally hover at or below seasonal norms for much of the week before warming on Friday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Near-seasonal temperatures continue west of the Cascades today, with daytime highs warming 5 to 10 degrees to the east. A cutoff low pressure system approaches the area this evening, which looks to bring chances for nocturnal thunderstorms tonight into early Wednesday morning. These chances are very slight (5-10%) and seem to be limited to along and east of the Cascades. The cutoff looks to bring temperatures east of the Cascades back down by 5-10 degrees on Wednesday while highs to the west linger near seasonal levels. Afternoon breezes may be slightly higher, while slight afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances return along and east of the Cascades. Isolated thunderstorms could continue into the nighttime hours.

Easterly flow to west side areas will bring daytime highs to seasonal levels on Thursday, while east side areas will remain cooler. With the low starting to move eastward, it may be able to tap into monsoonal moisture and bump east side thunderstorm chances to the 10-15% range on Thursday afternoon and evening. Lower 5-10% chances develop over Jackson and Siskiyou counties, again due to easterly flow possibly guiding activity. Chances for thunderstorms dissipate into the evening hours.

Uneventful weather continues through the end of the week and into the weekend as a shortwave ridge moves over the area, bringing additional warming that could continue through the weekend. At this point, daytime highs could be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This would put the Oregon coast in the low 70s, while west side valleys are expected to be in the mid 80s to low 90s. For east side areas, highs in the mid to high 70s will be possible. Beyond Sunday, long- term imagery starts to diverge. Meteograms members are showing more precipitation signals towards the end of the month, but with little consistent timing or rainfall amounts. This gives the feeling that active weather is out there in the long term, but with little confidence in the details. -TAD

AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs

Marine stratus has brought LIFR conditions to the North Bend terminal early this morning. This layer looks to stay in place into the late morning before clearing out. A round of gusty winds will affect coastal areas in the afternoon, with winds easing in the evening. Periods of lower visibilities could return to North Bend towards the end of the TAF period.

Inland areas look to remain at VFR levels under clear skies and with normal breezes through the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas will continue today. Peak winds are expected south of Gold Beach this afternoon and evening. On Wednesday, gusty winds expand to the north and build steep seas in all waters. Steep seas may continue into Thursday before winds and seas ease towards the end of the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.