textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* High impact marine weather with gales, large seas, and hazardous surf conditions expected this weekend

* Inland, this is an overall low impact forecast over the next 7 days

* A cold front is expected late this afternoon that will bring rainfall to areas along/near the coast and areas west of the Cascades through early Sunday afternoon

* Chance of rain Monday but dry weather is increasingly likely Tuesday-Wednesday

* A potential period of active weather starts Thurs/Fri

DISCUSSION

Upper levels indicate a ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area today resulting in above normal temperatures. Temperatures today will be about 10 degrees above normal for many locations. For perspective, Medford is normally around 58 for a high today (Nov 7th) and we are currently forecasting a high around 68.

The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will slide east later this afternoon as a trough moves eastward over the Pacific towards the PacNW. A cold front will pass through the region starting late this afternoon and continuing through tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will be highest along and near the coast. Father inland, especially the higher terrain of Douglas County could see some of these higher amounts as well. Very little to no rain is expected east of the Cascades as the front washes out over land. Additionally, westside valleys will likely miss out on much of the accumulation, but light amounts are expected. 24 hour totals will range from about a few hundredths to upwards near half an inch. Westside valleys will be on this lower end, while areas along/near the coast will see the higher amounts, especially areas in Curry County. The probability for rainfall amounts to be 0.50" or greater over 24 hours is about 80%- 90% for much of Curry County. Elsewhere, these probabilities are much lower for 0.50" or greater but generally range from about 35% to 75% north of the Umpqua divide and along/near the coast in both Douglas and Coos counties. Not expecting much--if any--accumulation for northern California and eastside areas. It will also be breezy this afternoon ahead of the front. Areas along/near the coast have a 40%-90% probability of 40mph or greater gusts. The more exposed coastal ranges and immediate areas long the coast having the higher probabilities. Our typical windier eastside areas will have a 20%- 50% for 35mph or greater gusts in the Shasta Valley, areas around Summer Lake, and generally higher elevations on the eastside like the Warners.

With the passage of the front, the upper levels will remain in a southwesterly flow pattern through middle of next week. On Monday, we will have a small embedded shortwave within this flow that will help produce additional rainfall for areas west of the Cascades. Increasing probabilities are showing the potential for higher rainfall amounts on Monday when compared to the amounts today/tonight.

By Thursday, an elongated trough will develop over the Pacific just off the west coast. As it approaches the coast, a closed low develops on the southern extend as the flow splits off Friday. The result will be a larger broader area of cyclonic rotation over the Gulf of Alaska and a closed low over southern California. Uncertainty remains in the extend for Thursday onward so its still a little to early to say with much confidence some of the finer details. That said, there is a signal for later parts of the week to experience more rainfall (potentially moderate to heavy) and strong winds. While there is the potential for higher elevation snowfall, it does not appear to be any significant accumulations at this time, but with the uncertainty this could change. Stay tuned for more details on later parts of next week.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

Low clouds will maintain LIFR/IFR conditions along/near the coast impacting KOTH through this morning, but MVR conditions may come to fruition this afternoon before a front arrives. Increasing wind speeds ahead of the front are expected this afternoon as well. Rain and lower ceilings will spread west to east as the front transitions over land. This will bring deteriorating ceilings for terminals west of the Cascades. Also of note is the low level jet as the front passes, but at this time not expected the jet to be low enough to warrant LLWS before surface winds pick up.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 315 AM PST Saturday, November 7, 2026

Seas will remain high and steep around 12 to 16 feet at 14 to 17 seconds this morning as westerly swell moves through the waters. Low pressure will move through the NE Pacific and onshore into British Columbia today into Sunday. A cold front will bring increasing south winds this afternoon, with gales in the northern waters, and a hazardous combination of swell and steep to very steep wind waves. Rain will accompany the front this evening followed by a high to very high long period westerly swell tonight through Sunday evening. Winds will diminish during this time frame, but seas will increase to a peak of 18-23 ft with the period increasing from 12 to 17 seconds Sunday evening. Swells will gradually subside Monday.

BEACH HAZARDS

Long period westerly swells moving through the coastal waters will have enough energy to produce an elevated risk of sneaker waves on SW Oregon beaches (Douglas, Coos and Curry counties) through tonight.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can knock people off their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

In addition, a high to very high swell is expected to arrive at the coast late Saturday night into Sunday. Breaker heights in the surf zone could reach 22-27 feet. We have issued a high surf advisory for this.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-370.