textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Snow: Minor/limited impacts Wed/Wed night - Cascades: Amounts mainly for elevations above 4,000 ft

* Rainfall: Minor/limited impacts Wed/Wed night - Not expecting flooding - Mainly nuisance ponding on roadways

* Wind: Minor/limited impacts Wed/Wed night - Wind gusts of 45 mph possible - Current probability for 45mph or greater: Mainly 25%-50%

Overview:

Wednesday is the most noteworthy day of the forecast given potential impacts from snow, rain, and wind. However, these impacts are expected to be minor/limited and likely wont warrant any warnings. That said, there is the possibility for wind advisory conditions to come to fruition on Wednesday afternoon as an upper level system passes through the region, but currently those probabilities are low around 25-50% for the most part. This would be primarily for wind gusts of 45mph or greater (minimum requirement for wind advisory). Eastside areas and northern California have these probabilities for gusts, but not expecting any headlines at this time unless these probabilities increase over the next 24-48 hours.

Rain and snow will spread across the region starting as early as Tuesday night as a cold front enter the region. These chances will spread west to east through Wednesday night. Snowfall amounts will be highest across the Cascades north of Highway 140, but won't warrant any headlines at this time as amounts range from 3.0" to 12.0" over 30 hours. The probability for 24hr snowfall of 8.0" or greater is ~30%-70% with areas in and around Crater Lake seeing the higher amounts/probabilities. Rainfall amounts around 0.50"- 1.25" will be possible along and near the coast as well as other parts of Douglas County. The probability for 24hr rainfall 1.00" or greater is ~20%-50% for these aforementioned areas.

Please see the previous discussion below for further details.

AVIATION (12z TAFs)

IFR/MVFR conditions will continue for terminals west of the Cascades through early parts of this cycle. Conditions will generally improve through the day for inland sites with VFR conditions expected in the afternoon. KOTH likely wont see much improvement outside of MVFR conditions today. Conditions likely deteriorate tonight with fog and low clouds for KOTH, KRBG, and KMFR. Some uncertainty exist for KRBG and KMFR on low cloud/fog potential, but recent rainfall should allow for low level saturation tonight.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Monday, March 2, 2026

Light south winds and relatively calm seas are expected through tonight. Winds increase and seas steepen Tuesday through Wednesday as a front moves through the area. Weak shower activity is also expected with this front starting tonight and continuing through Wednesday. Steep west seas follows through the end of the week, with westerly winds becoming more northerly through later parts of the week.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 918 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026/

DISCUSSION...

The closed low opens into a trough as it heads across northern Nevada on Monday. This will allow the air mass to dry out a bit, though showers linger in some areas, especially east of the Cascades in the morning (also near the Cascades and along the coast). These should diminish in coverage as the day progresses with only a few hundredths (QPF) here and there after 18z.

A brief dry period is expected Monday night and Tuesday beneath short wave upper ridging. This will likely result in nighttime/morning low clouds/areas of fog in west side valleys, but no precip over inland areas. Models do show higher PoPs along the coast Tuesday (60-80%), but don't really think this amounts to much. It's more/less onshore flow that could bring some light rain there -- maybe a few hundredths at best and PoPs may be over done here. Temperatures remain mild for early March with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s west of the Cascades and 55-60F over the East Side.

The next upper trough and cold front will arrive in WNW flow aloft Tuesday night into Wednesday. Expect a period of widespread light to moderate precipitation to accompany the cold front with the focus along the coast and into the Cascades (amounts of 0.50-1.00 inch common, though up 1.50 inches in areas of favored WNW-facing terrain). Snow levels will drop during this event, from around 6000 feet Tuesday evening, down to 4000-5000 feet by Wednesday evening. This will keep most winter impacts confined to the higher terrain and Cascade passes. Snow amounts are still shown to be 3-7 inches above 5000 feet in the Cascades (north of Howard Prairie) with higher amounts to 10 inches above 5500 feet (Crater Lake). Snowfall rates on Wednesday morning remain a concern at those higher elevations, as parts of highways 62, 230, and 138 near Crater Lake and Diamond Lake may see snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Some travel impacts are also possible over the pass on Highway 140 near Lake of the Woods, but amounts from there southward (including the Siskiyous/Mt Ashland) will be 1-4 inches above 5000 feet. Impacts to I-5 (Siskiyou Summit at ~4300 ft) aren't likely with NBM probability of 1" or greater of snow only ~10%. Right now, it's borderline at best for a Winter Weather Advisory for areas north of Highway 140, but we could see how potential for snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour Wed am push us toward issuing something. We'll continue to evaluate and decide over the next couple of shifts. Expect breezy conditions to develop Wednesday afternoon, especially over the East Side. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible, but probably not high enough for wind headlines. With the trough axis shifting eastward, post-frontal showers diminish by Wednesday evening for the Rogue Valley (and southeast of the Cascades), but onshore flow keeps them going along the coast, to around the Rogue-Umpqua Divide and over to the Cascades right through Wednesday night. Back side energy could still bring low chances (15-30%) of showers on Thursday across NW sections, with dry weather taking hold elsewhere.

Late this week into the weekend, there's broad agreement in an upper ridge developing over the Pacific with the core of a strong upper jet directed to our north. But, there's some variation in the details. A majority of ensemble members show the ridge development out along 140W, but near or south of 40 N. This could allow some systems to slide over the top of the ridge and bring the possibility of light coastal rainfall at times. However, many outcomes also keep the precipitation to our north. NBM PoP guidance shows slight chance to chance PoPs over NW sections of the CWA, with dry and milder conditions to the south and east. Either way, this doesn't look like a period of stormy weather coming up, but rather glancing blows from systems coming over the top. CPC forecasts favor near to above normal temps and drier than normal for Week 2 (through mid-March). -Spilde

AVIATION...02/06Z TAFS...Active weather will likely bring fluctuating flight levels tonight into Monday morning, then transitioning to isolated showers and mainly VFR Monday afternoon. A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions will prevail in showers tonight, with areas of IFR in heavier showers and areas of IFR/LIFR where clearing allows for fog/low stratus. MVFR and areas IFR/LIFR are expected to become widespread late tonight and early Monday morning. Then, conditions are expected to improve late Monday morning into Monday afternoon, becoming mainly VFR with local MVFR conditions along the coast and into the Umpqua Valley.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Sunday, March 1, 2026...Showers, light south winds, and relatively calm seas are expected through Monday night. Winds increase and seas steepen Tuesday into Wednesday as a front moves through the area. Steep west seas follows through the end of the week, with winds becoming north Friday into next weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.