textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

A dirty ridge over the area has allowed the storm track to be just far enough south for intermittent light rain over Douglas and northern Coos County. Radar image is showing very light returns in these areas. The frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary through this evening with the core of the heavier precipitation remaining north of the forecast area.

Meanwhile, stable conditions farther south have resulted in fog and low clouds in the Illinois, and Rogue Valleys. Meanwhile, satellite image shows signs of stronger winds aloft along and east of the Cascades.

Little if any precipitation is expected today through tonight, then a warm front will move into the area bringing light to moderate rain, especially along the north coast, coastal mountains and Cascades late tonight into Sunday. With a strong westerly flow aloft, rainfall is expected to be mainly along and west ofthe Cascades with dry weather likely mostly hours and locations east of the Cascades tonight through Sunday.

There's good agreement the front will weaken as it remains nearly stationary late this evening through Saturday. The net result will be decreasing precipitation late this evening with most hours and locations dry late tonight through Saturday.

The general consensus for most of next week keeps the bulk of the rainfall north of the forecast area. However intermittent light is expected in northern Douglas and Coos County on the southern fringes of the heavier core of rainfall which is likely to be mainly from about Eugene up to western Washington next Monday through Wednesday.

The one grey area could be Tuesday with some of the operational models and individual ensemble members suggesting the frontal boundary could slip far enough south to bring moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation for a brief period of time to the area Tuesday before the core of heavier precipitation lifts back north as an upper ridge builds over the area. It's possible it could end up dry the latter part of next week if this pans out.

It should be noted that during this time, snow levels will be above all the passes, therefore the concern for snow is next to zero. -Petrucelli

AVIATION...06/12z TAFs

Stable conditions along with ample low level moisture has resulted in low ceilings and reduced visibilities for most areas west of the Cascades, including areas of fog and low clouds at the Medford terminal and Merlin airport. Guidance shows low clouds and fog possibly persisting through 19z, before ceilings and visibility improve in the afternoon.

Moderate to strong winds aloft will result in turbulence along and east of the Cascades with stronger winds near and at the ridges. Low level wind shear remains a concern at Klamath Falls this morning due to an inversion preventing the stringer winds from mixing near and at the surface. Most locations east of the Cascades should remain VFR through the TAF period. -Petrucelli

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Saturday, December 6, 2025

South winds are expected today as the next system approaches the area. Steep seas will build further due to increasing northwest swell. After a brief period of improved conditions tonight, gusty south winds and steep seas return Sunday, especially north of Cape Blanco. Conditions remain unsettled through the first part of next week, with several fronts bringing periods of gusty south winds and a likelihood of high and steep seas. -BPN/Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-370.