textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Please see the previous discussion below for further details/reasoning. But, here are the key points regarding our weather next week:

Snow above 5000 feet in Siskiyou County Sunday through Sunday evening. Amounts of 6 to 12 inches for the Trinity Alps/far southern Siskiyou County.

Few impacts during Monday. Moderate rain for the coast and Douglas County, light precipitation elsewhere, mainly the remainder of southwest Oregon. Snow levels 4000 feet falling to 3000 feet. Snow of 2 to 6 inches for the southern Oregon Cascades, and up to 2 inches for the Siskiyou Mountains. Flurries to a few inches in the mountains for Siskiyou County. Gusty southwest winds of 35 mph during Monday in in Lake County.

Main Event: The 24 hours from late Monday night through Tuesday evening. A focus on snow during the Tuesday morning commute.

Winter Storm Warning for most of Siskiyou County with snow levels falling from 3000 feet to around 2000 feet, with 5 to 15 inches of snow above 3000 feet and 2 to 8 inches below 3000 feet.

Winter Storm Watch above 2000 feet for eastern Curry and Josephine County with 8 to 12 inches possible, and snow levels falling as low as 1500 feet during Tuesday.

Advisory level snowfall likely for the higher terrain elsewhere in southern Oregon and northern California including 5 to 12 inches for the southern Oregon Cascades and Siskiyou Mountains. 1 to 4 inches elsewhere at elevations above 2000 feet, with a wintry mix as low as 1200 feet. Warm soils in valleys will hinder accumulations, at least initially.

A very cold but weakening low with additional low elevation snow of up to 3 inches on Wednesday morning, mainly west of the Cascades at elevations above 500 feet. Highest valley totals for the Camas, Illinois, and far western Siskiyou County.

This includes colder morning low temperatures for Wednesday through Friday, with freezing temperatures possible at the coast and expected elsewhere.

Higher uncertainty with another very cold, possibly stronger, frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Snow levels likely remaining around 1000 feet.

AVIATION...15/06Z TAFS

A surface low continues to strengthens off the California coast this evening. We'll see a mix of ceilings over the airports through the TAF period. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings will accompany showers through much of tonight and Sunday, with areas of terrain obscurations.

Otherwise, a mid cloud deck around 6000 to 8000 feet will cover other locations across the forecast area, with freezing levels around 5000 ft MSL. There could be some LLWS flying into the Shasta Valley through the TAF period with stronger winds aloft.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Saturday, February 14, 2026

Steep seas will continue through Sunday for waters beyond 10 nm from shore. Late SUnday into Monday, a front will bisect the waters with winds varying from northeast to southeast, with the strongest northeast winds (20-25 kt) in the northern outer waters, while SE winds (lighter) are favored across the south and east.

Seas remain in this elevated state through Monday before another swell group traverses the region late Tuesday night. This swell group is approaching the high long period swell threshold of 15 feet at 15 seconds, although it looks like the period will be a second short of that criteria. In any case, these conditions will be hazardous to smaller crafts Tuesday into Wednesday. -Smith

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 257 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026/

DISCUSSION...Minimal impacts are expected in the forecast area through at least early Sunday. An upper level trough is evolving offshore this afternoon as energy dives southward from the Gulf of Alaska. A weak front moved inland early this morning and is now lifting northward through the region as a weak surface low pressure develops off the coast of California. 24 hour precipitation amounts have ranged from 0.25"-0.50" across northwestern areas, down to a few hundreths to a tenth of an inch across southern and eastern areas. Most areas will see precipitation taper off by this evening, but upslope flow in the Mt Shasta region could maintain some light precip overnight into Sunday. Meanwhile, this surface low pressure is strengthening some, just by a few mb, and this will bring some increased winds to the East Side and Shasta Valley today. Model pressure gradients are fairly weak, so we expect peak wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range with about a 20% chance at a gust >40 mph. Places that'll likely be windiest are around Weed and Summer Lake.

Impacts start increasing across northern California on Sunday as low pressure starts nudging eastward and a front offshore gets pushed inland Sunday night into Monday. The base of the trough, and the bulk of the energy/moisture looks to be directed into California, but a corridor of moderate to occasionally heavy upslope precipitation will remain directed into portions of NorCal, and especially the Mt. Shasta region. This could bring some impacts to the mountains Sunday afternoon, so we've upped the time and upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a warning to encompass these initial impacts. While we don't think this will be too impactful for most locations initially, elevations near Snowman Summit or at least the ski road to Mt Shasta Ski park and some of the high passes of SW Siskiyou County abutting Trinity County could be affected. Additionally, some guidance is showing the potential for snow impacts down to the Mt Shasta City area overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Snow levels lower to around 4000 ft during that time, and if precipitation intensity is heavy enough, some snow could mix in at times in the Mt Shasta City area. Upstream energy digging into the trough from the north should give this area of heavier precip a kick south and eastward by Monday morning (and then be directed into the Sierra Nevada south of us), and there should be a lull in precipitation late Monday morning through the afternoon.

Monday night through Tuesday will be the time frame when the most significant weather change to colder occurs area wide. Additional energy from the north dives southward late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a deep/cold trough just off the OR/WA coast, allowing for colder air to filter into the region. Some of that cold air will move in over SW Oregon and this will bring about more widespread impactful winter weather with snow levels dropping to around 1500 feet (maybe even 1000 feet or so) for the usual spots west of the Cascades (Hayes Hill/Camas Mt). Anytime we get an air mass this cold, there is potential for snow at the valley floors and since the cold air mass will hang around for a while (Tue-Fri), there will be multiple opportunities. A lot will depend on timing of precip and just how sustained it is. Currently, it looks like the best chance for snow down to valley floors west of the Cascades will be Tuesday morning as the initial cold front is coming in, especially since it's arriving during the overnight hours. Snow levels will fluctuate between the day/night hours, hovering around 2000-2500 ft during the day time, then lowering to around 1000-1500 ft overnight/early morning hours. The coldest air looks to arrive on Wednesday, and this is when we currently expect the lowest snow levels. By that point, however, the trough looks to be overhead, so it'll be more of a showery airmass pattern that brings periods of quick and spotty accumulations. And, given the mild pattern we've been in for the last month, the ground is quite warm, so nighttime and morning hours will be the most likely times for accumulation at the lower elevations. Aside from the West Side Valleys, winter weather impacts will increase across the Cascades and the Kalmiopsis Wilderness region, especially as the flow becomes more westerly Monday into Wednesday. We've gone ahead with a Winter Storm Watch for the Kalmiopsis Region, for elevations above 2000 ft where westerly flow combined with lowering snow levels Monday into Tuesday could bring up to a foot of snow by Tuesday evening. We'll likely need winter weather advisories for a large portion of the remainder of the area, to include the lower passes west of the Cascades and perhaps even some valley floors. Illinois Valley may be one such location. While we do expect snow in the Cascades as well, amounts over a 24-hour period (6-10") do not appear to support at watch at this time (an advisory should suffice), but we'll continue to assess as updated guidance comes in. If you have travel plans Monday through Thursday of next week, it's best to check in frequently for updates as confidence increases in the finer details of the upcoming pattern.

Here are some probabilities of 72 hour snow accumulations from the NBM for Monday 4pm through Wednesday 4pm:

* Mountains above 4000 feet from the Cascades west: 60-95% for snowfall of 6 inches or greater.

* Cascades and mountains in western/southern Siskiyou County: 70-90% chance for snowfall amounts of 12 inches or more in higher elevations (above 4500 ft).

* Mount Shasta City area (down to I-5): 60-80% chance for 6 inches of snow, 40-60% chance for 12 inches of snow.

* Lower passes on I-5 near Canyon Mountain and Sexton Summit: 40-60% chance for an inch or more of snow, 20-30% for 3 inches.

* Hayes Hill, Camas Mountain, southern Illinois Valley, areas in and around Ashland, and portions of the lower Klamath River valley in western Siskiyou County: 40-60% chance for an inch or more of snow, 20-30% for 3 inches.

* Valley floors - 20-40% chance for light snowfall (<1") down to lower valleys such as Medford, Grants Pass and Canyonville both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Lowest snow levels are likely Wednesday morning, but precip may be more sparse by then.

Additional shortwaves/precipitation opportunities are expected for the remainder of the week, and snow levels will remain on the low end. So there could be additional snow chances, especially as the back side of the trough swings through late Thursday. Stay tuned for adjustments over the coming days.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for ORZ024.

CA...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ080-082-083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ370-376.