textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Moderate to high impact marine weather through this weekend

* Inland, low to moderate impacts from strong winds and rainfall

* Active weather likely to continue through the weekend and early next week

DISCUSSION

A long wave trough continues to advance over the eastern Pacific towards the western CONUS today. The trough axis extends down from the Gulf of Alaska along/near the 140W south to about the 30N parallel. The southern extent of this trough will split off tomorrow as it heads towards southern California. The northern extent will become a closed low and deepen as it heads towards the PacNW Fri/Sat and will be responsible for much of our active weather through Saturday. Then another low develops behind this first closed low and heads into British Columbia to continue impacts through the weekend with a majority of these impacts near the coast.

The strongest wind speeds will likely be between Coos Bay and Pistol River Friday morning. Below are some probabilities for areas along/near the coast where we will likely see the strongest gusts.

* 50 mph or greater: 70% to 95% * 55 mph or greater: 60% to 90% * 60 mph or greater: 50% to 75% * 65 mph or greater: 10% to 30%

These probabilities have led to enough confidence to issue a High Wind Watch for areas along and near the coast. This includes all of Curry and Coos counties where we technically don't issue a Wind Advisory. Additionally, Douglas County near the coast, and far western parts of Josephine County are in the watch as well. For Douglas and Josephine counties, these areas may not get upgraded to a high wind warning and it may be Wind Advisory for areas that we allow this product to be issued. The take away is that strong to very strong wind gusts are expected Friday morning which can lead to downed tress, power outages, as well as difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles. Any unsecured or loose outdoor objects will likely get blown around or damaged.

Farther inland, strong wind gusts are expected for Shasta Valley Thurs/Thurs night, and eastside areas Friday afternoon/early evening which has led to a Wind Advisory across these areas. These areas will likely see wind gusts around 45 to 55 mph.

Precipitation chances will start Thurs night/Fri morning and continue through the weekend. There will be breaks as we are not expecting a continuous onslaught of rainfall. Rainfall amounts will be highest along and near the coast. Curry County--in typical fashion--will see the higher rainfall rates and amounts. That said, not expecting much in the real of impacts for rainfall, but nuisance type flooding with ponding on roadways will lead to slippery roads and longer driving times. In particular, driving conditions for the mornings of both Friday and Sunday may involve the most nuisance for drivers.

Snowfall will be confined to areas above 5000 ft, and we are not expecting any noteworthy accumulations, but highways around Diamond Lake, Crater Lake, and Lake of the Woods could be the areas to watch for light amounts (Trace-1.0") of snowfall. This may lead to slippery roads and longer drive times Friday afternoon through Monday morning.

-Guerrero

AVIATION...12/00Z TAFs

VFR levels are present across northern California and southern Oregon under high clouds or clear skies to start the TAF period. While a relatively stable weather pattern suggests persistence could guide the forecast, the presence of high clouds can reduce chances of fog development. For west side terminals, possible timing of lower flight levels has been included even though confidence in coastal and Umpqua development is moderate to low. Anything that does develop overnight is expected to clear before Thursday afternoon. Areas east of the Cascades are expected to remain clear through the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Gusty south winds, strongest north of Cape Blanco, will persist this afternoon as a warm front lifts north through the region. Very steep and hazardous seas will continue north of Cape Blanco, along with the potential for isolated gale force gusts at times through this afternoon. Winds will diminish behind the front late this afternoon, but steep seas and advisory strength south winds are expected through Thursday.

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate late Thursday into Friday as a strong front moves in, bringing strong gales (possibly storm force gusts) and very high and very steep seas. Yet another major long-period swell will move into the waters following this front late Friday. It is expected to peak Friday night with wave heights in the coastal waters forecast to reach 25 to 30 feet with a period of 19 seconds. Another front is expected Saturday into Sunday, and while it will be somewhat weaker than the first front, another round of gales looks possible with this system. Additional, another significant long periods swell will follow that front. Again, likely not quite as high as the first front, but expect very high, steep and very hazardous, even dangerous, sea conditions to persist through the weekend and into early next week. Mariners should keep a close eye on the forecasts as this especially impactful period draws closer.

BEACH HAZARDS

Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday, November 11, 2026...Dangerous conditions are expected along area beaches Friday through the weekend. Wave model guidance is depicting a major, long period westerly swell arriving with an expected storm system late this week into this weekend. The swell is forecast to arrive along the Oregon coast Friday and peak late Friday night through Saturday morning. Peak wave heights are forecast to be 25 to 30 feet at 19 second period, which translates to breaking surf heights of 33 to 38 feet. This would result in exceptionally high and dangerous surf conditions, with completely inundated beaches, and potential dune overwash and erosion. Another heavy long period swell is anticipated behind a second front late Saturday into Sunday. This is likely to maintain hazardous beach conditions as breaking wave heights of 25- 27 ft persist into Monday. Those with coastal and marine interests should stay up to date with the latest forecasts as this event approaches.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ029>031.

High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ORZ021>024.

High Surf Warning from 10 AM Friday to 10 PM PST Saturday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for CAZ081- 084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350- 370.