textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Showers are ongoing this late morning as a low continues to track eastwards with relatively cold and unstable air flowing into southern Oregon. The air aloft(700mb and higher) is relatively dry and showers will be on the lighter side for the remainder of the day. Therefore, we downgraded the winter storm warning to an advisory for the remainder of the winter event.

Otherwise, skies will clear tonight as high pressure builds in this low's wake. Our main concern will be freezing temperatures in the valleys with low temperatures in the upper 20's in some of our southern valleys and mid to lower 30's in the Umpqua Basin. This is a risk for the larger agricultural operations or anyone with plants in the ground as lows approach 28 degrees here in Medford. The wild card here could be some fog or freezing fog developing overnight, which might halt the drop towards 28 degrees or perhaps a degree or two lower. Confidence is low on fog formation given the time of year and latest forecasts don't contain fog. Furthermore, the inversion isn't super strong which you usually like to see for fog development. However, recent rainfall with ample clearing sometimes leads to a fog surprise.

High pressure will continue to build into Friday with temperatures warming up into the upper and mid 60's west of the Cascades and lower 60's east of the Cascades. Light offshore flow should also push temperatures warmer over Brookings with highs in the upper 60's in southern Curry County.

Temperatures peak around Saturday and Sunday as a 1013 mb high settles over northern California. However, high temperatures will be a few degrees short of high temperature records.

The only other thing that stood out in the forecast models was the amount of convective available potential energy(CAPE) around Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. The extreme forecast index was hinting this was unusually high for this time of year in northern and southern Oregon. Looking at the GFS forecast soundings, a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms seems fair Monday afternoon. However, the NBM PoP forecast isn't high enough for the NBM to put it in the gridded forecast yet.

Finally, another low will move into northern Oregon Wednesday evening and Thursday. With more of a southerly and southwest flow, snow levels will be high around 6500 feet as this low develops off the northern California coast. This low should bring beneficial rainfall as the QPF looks typical and doesn't stand out as unusual in the ensemble forecasts.

-Smith

AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs

Some scattered showers continue across northern California and southern Oregon, but are not impacting area terminals. This activity should dissipate into the evening hours. Chances of overnight fog development in lower elevations areas are low, but not out of the question. A stable upper pattern developing on Friday will keep VFR levels in the forecast across the area, with daily diurnal winds expected. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Thursday, April 2, 2026

Seas will remain steep through this evening as we've transitioned to a small craft advisory across all waters. West to northwest winds will also gradually ease through the day. Brief improvement on Friday will be followed by stronger north winds with steep seas likely Friday evening through Saturday evening.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ024-026.

Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ021-023.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ025- 027-028.

CA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356- 370-376.