textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...05/18Z TAFs

Overall, expect a mix of MVFR/low end VFR conditions today with widespread terrain obscurations from the Cascades westward. Isolated to scattered showers will persist through the afternoon, focused along the coast and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop across northern California and east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening, easing after sunset today. There's some uncertainty regarding fog development tonight as lingering cloud cover should at least limit the extent of development if not prevent it. If there is enough clearing, however, there could be some patchy areas of LIFR conditions in fog that develop in West Side Valleys after midnight. This is most likely in the Umpqua Basin and the Illinois Valley/Grants Pass area. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 410 AM PST Thu Mar 5 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...

Key Points:

* Relatively quiet conditions the next 7 days - No notable impacts expected - Only light rainfall/snowfall chances

* Well above normal temperatures possible this weekend - Roughly 10-15 degrees above normal for some areas

Further Details:

Over the next couple days, high pressure will build in over the Pacific which will result in northerly to northwesterly flow over the forecast area. We are expecting mostly dry conditions through the weekend with only light rainfall chances for northern portions of our coastal areas (i.e. north of Cape Blanco) and areas of the Umpqua valley. Otherwise, expecting mostly dry conditions for a vast majority of the forecast area through the weekend.

The high pressure aloft through the weekend will lead to well above normal (10-15 degrees) temperatures. Some valleys may reach the 70s for highs this weekend. Extreme Forecast Index from the European Model indicates temperatures--based on climatology--will have an EFI of 0.90-0.93 which is a signal for a very unusual/extreme event. However, record highs for this time of year will likely be untouched as records are much warmer than the current forecast. Nevertheless, we will see unseasonably warm temperatures this weekend.

Next week the flow turns mostly zonal in the upper levels. And while we have PoPs through the extended forecast, these chances will likely only amount to light rainfall--at best. We are only seeing weak impulses embedded within this zonal flow. These precipitation chances will be "best" along and near the coast, as well as areas north of the Umpqua divide, but again will likely only amount to light rainfall. We may also see very light snowfall amounts for areas around Crater Lake and north through the Cascades.

Overall, a relatively uneventful forecast due to limited impacts with no foreseeable land hazards expected through at least early parts of next week.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Thursday, March 5, 2026...Gusty west to northwest winds will maintain steep seas through this morning. Seas will become less steep later today, transitioning to swell dominated that will persist through the weekend. Steep seas could return late in the weekend, especially south of Cape Blanco, as north winds increase Sunday into Monday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.