textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Chilly early this morning east of the Cascades with areas of frost, but sunny and milder this afternoon; clouds west of the Cascades this morning break for a sunny, seasonable afternoon.

* Temperatures trend upward Thursday and Friday, then even hotter this weekend into early next week. Those sensitive to heat will be affected during the hottest part of the afternoons, generally 2-6 pm. Even the coast will have periods of warmth.

* No rain for the next 7 days with PoPs remaining 10% or less through next Wednesday.

* More zonal pattern develops next week, so temps should moderate downward by Wednesday, but remain above normal.

DISCUSSION

Surface high pressure off the coast is building into SW Oregon and NorCal this morning. It took most of last evening for breezes to die down, but temperatures are dropping east of the Cascades and in NE California, so expect some areas to wake up to frost. This won't last long though since the sun rises at around 530 am now and temps should mostly get above frost thresholds by 7-8 am. Satellite imagery is showing some clouds lingering from the Cascades west, but these will break up and yield to sunny skies this afternoon. Overall, seasonable high temps are expected today. A short wave disturbance will zip southeastward from eastern WA this morning into southern ID this afternoon. There's no chance of precipitation due to a very dry air mass, but it will result in locally breezy conditions east of the Cascades and in NorCal this afternoon/evening.

Upper ridging takes hold offshore tonight through Saturday. This will induce a surface thermal trough in northern California and along the SW Oregon coast. Flow turns offshore (NE winds) tonight into Thursday and results in gusty north winds along the coast and over the marine waters Thursday afternoon through Saturday with some nighttime mid-slope and ridge breezes in western Siskiyou Mtns and coast ranges. Warming continues over the interior with temps getting to 10-15F above normal, highest west of the Cascades. Even Brookings will have some warmer days with highs in the 70s and even lower 80s. The warming could be muted a bit east of the Cascades since they'll be on the eastern periphery of the ridge and at least one disturbance will come southward through the area late Saturday into Sunday. This disturbance won't be all that noticeable, but could result in an uptick in northerly breezes, especially Saturday afternoon/evening.

The upper ridge offshore then builds more strongly into the area Sunday and Monday, resulting in the hottest weather of the year thus far. Models have tempered the heat somewhat, but highs for most inland areas west of the Cascades will be well into the 90s with even some triple digit readings possible around the Rogue, Applegate and Illinois valleys. This results in moderate HeatRisk which affects those sensitive to the heat and without access to adequate cooling/hydration facilities. We'll be considering possible heat headlines over the coming days.

The ridge pattern flattens toward mid next week with the majority of models/ensembles trending lower with respect to temperatures, but also remaining above normal. -Spilde

AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs

Most surface observations are showing VFR ceilings around 4000 feet this morning west of the Cascades. But, this is resulting in higher terrain obscuration near the Cascades, the Rogue/Umpqua Divide mountains and also the coast ranges. Patchy fog is also present in some interior coastal valleys. These should all gradually clear to VFR by this afternoon. VFR will prevail elsewhere for the next 24 hours. Gusty north to northwest breezes can be expected again this afternoon and evening, but will not be quite as strong as yesterday, except at the coast south of Cape Blanco where gusts will again be at 20 to 30 kt. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, June 10, 2026

A strengthening thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to locally very steep wind driven seas south of Cape Blanco this afternoon and evening. The gusty north winds and steep seas are expected to spread north of Cape Blanco by Thursday and last through the weekend, while gales and very steep seas develop south of Port Orford. Winds and seas should ease somewhat next week, but probably at least remain hazardous to small craft. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for ORZ029-031.

Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for ORZ030.

CA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ082>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-370.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356- 376.