textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)

Conditions this evening are VFR, except for patchy coastal LIFR. Along the coast, areas of IFR/LIFR will gradually develop overnight into Thursday morning. This includes spreading into the Coquille and lower Umpqua Valleys. Guidance supports IFR at North Bend (OTH) developing around 09z, then persisting through around 18Z.

Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain VFR through Thursday afternoon, with increasing high clouds during Thursday. Also, breezy southwest winds with gusts of 20 to 35 kt are expected during Thursday afternoon for the southern Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades (including Klamath Falls (LMT)).

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Gusty northerly winds and steep seas continue south of Port Orford overnight. While a brief period of below advisory seas follows, an approaching low pressure system will bring active conditions. Marine showers and increasing southerly winds arrive late in the morning. By Thursday evening, steep seas are expected north of Cape Blanco, with rapidly deteriorating conditions. Strong south winds will develop in the outer waters late in the evening, with gale gusts expected north of Reedsport and very steep hazardous seas elsewhere. The strongest winds and highest seas will be in the northern portion of the waters. Winds and seas ease during Friday, but seas will remain high and very steep.

North winds and a thermal trough return Friday night with steep or nearly steep seas likely. North winds and seas increase Saturday with steep to very steep seas possible during the weekend and into early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 227 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Light to moderate rain is likely Thursday evening through Friday for most areas from the Cascades westward. Additionally, there is a low chance (10%) of thunderstorms.

* On Friday, there is a 10-30% chance for light showers Friday across portions of Klamath and Lake County.

* Gusty winds are expected at the coast late Thursday into Friday morning and inland for areas east the of Cascades Thursday and Friday.

* The combination of gusty winds and low humidities on Thursday will result in elevated fire weather conditions, especially for Lake and Modoc counties.

* Areas of freezing temperatures expected Saturday morning in valleys east of the Cascades.

DISCUSSION...Dry and warm conditions today with transition to cooler, wetter and windier Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system moves in from the west. This will bring a front into the coast Thursday night/early Friday and inland on Friday. Winds ahead of this front will be gusty. Ensembles are starting to show better agreement on the pattern with the low tracking towards the central Oregon coast late Thursday then moving onshore near the northern Oregon coast early Friday morning. However, there is variability with some ensembles showing a more southernly or northerly track. So we have medium confidence on the expected winds with this low and will continue to monitor with future model runs.

Current models show a lower and mid level jet of 35 to 50 mph moving over the area ahead of and with this front. This will result in gusty south to southwest winds over the area, strongest along the coast Thursday evening through Friday morning and inland east of the Cascades late Thursday afternoon/evening and again on Friday. Additionally, areas east of the Cascades will remain dry with low humidities Thursday afternoon and evening. This combined with gusty winds (gusts 30-40 mph) will bring elevated fire weather conditions, mainly to Modoc and Lake counties. A red flag warning is in effect for these conditions in Modoc County, where the most critical conditions are expected. Along the coast, winds are forecast to increase on Thursday evening and peak Thursday night and Friday morning at around 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-45 mph. As the low pressure moves onshore there is a potential for strong, gusty west-southwest winds along a portion of the Oregon coast, but this is more favored just north of the CWA.

As the front associated with this low moves inland, expect a band of moderate rainfall (0.25 to 0.75 inches) to move onshore into coastal areas late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening then light to moderate rain (with amounts of 0.02 to 0.40 inches) will move inland across the west side and the southern Oregon Cascades Thursday night and Friday morning. Rain is likely for most inland areas from the Southern Oregon Cascades west and for western Siskiyou County. This band will shift eastward and diminish with chances (10-30%) for light rain east of the Cascades in Klamath and Lake counties Friday morning. Behind the front, showers will fill into the area from the Cascades west on Friday, with best chances for showers in Coos, Curry and Douglas counties and over the southern Oregon Cascades.

In addition to rainfall, there is a low (10%) chance for thunderstorms along the coast Thursday evening and night and inland (Cascades west) on Friday.

Much cooler temperatures are expected across the area on Friday with highs in the 60s for many inland valleys. Gusty winds will persist Friday afternoon east of the Cascades but humidities will trend higher.

Showers diminish Friday evening and night. With light winds and clearing skies, areas of frost and freeze are likely in east side valleys Saturday morning. West of the Cascades, low temperatures are forecast to remain in the upper 30s to 40s on Saturday with very low chances for frost. High temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees below normal Saturday, warming to near normal on Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM Thursday to 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350- 370.

Gale Warning from 11 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350- 370.