textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Overall, this is a low impact forecast over the next 7 days

* Seasonable temperatures around normal for this time of year expected through much of the week edging above normal second half of the week

* Light rainfall today and tomorrow but amounts are generally under a tenth of an inch

* Rainfall amounts edge slightly higher Sat/Sat night with chances mainly along/near the coast and the Umpqua Basin

* A potentially more active pattern may unfold middle parts of next week bringing higher rainfall, snowfall, and strong winds

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery depicts a low pressure center moving over northern parts of California. This will bring light rainfall to southern portions of the forecast area, including northern California. Not expecting any noteworthy impacts from this system. The southerly flow is bringing strong wind speeds over parts of northern California this afternoon, especially the Shasta Valley where Weed has shown observations of 20-25 mph gusting to around 30-35 mph. This low pressure system moves out of the region tonight. H5 heights increase in its wake, but the base of a trough extending down from the Gulf of Alaska will bring another chance for light rainfall late Wednesday afternoon and evening. This chacnes are mainly for the coast and areas north of the Umpqua divide. The probability of 0.10" or greater of rainfall is only around 40%-50% for any given 6-hr time period Wed/Wed night. Again, not expecting much rainfall this week with any of these systems. On Saturday, probabilities are generally the same or slightly less, but some ensembles are showing higher amounts along/near the coast upwards near half an inch. In otherwords, there is more uncertatinty for Saturday rainfall amounts, but the general trend is showing those higher amounts may be an outlier.

Temperatures the second half of the week are trending upward, with most locations indicating above normal temperautres, potentially around 70 for many westside areas on Saturday.

Looking ahead, there is the potential for more impactful weather around Veteran's Day which could bring strong winds, increased rainfall amounts, and potential snowfall for higher elevations above 4500 ft. This is of course very far in the future, and a lot can change, but at this time we are watching this timeframe for potential impactful weather. Signs are also pointing at a potential weak atmospheric river event middle of next week. It should be noted this is not a slam dunk scenario, and uncertainty remains given how far out in the future this system is.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

Conditions are going to vary significantly across the region with a mixed bag of low, mid, and high clouds today. Offshore flow should maintain mostly VFR conditions along/near the coast, but westside valleys will see low clouds through this morning and parts of the afternoon impacting both KRBG and KMFR at times. KMFR will be less impacted with low clouds as conditions are dissipating around the terminal as of writing this but mid/high clouds remain. Expecting clearing this afternoon, but radiational fog will likely redevelop tonight impacting all of the inland terminals overnight. Light rain showers will likely remain south of all the terminals but KLMT is the wildcard here with about a 20% chance. Otherwise, light wind speeds are expected through this cycle.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PST Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Long period west-northwest swell combined with a shorter period southwest swell will maintain elevated steep seas under light winds through tonight. Conditions briefly improve on Wednesday, though winds will turn southerly and increase some in the afternoon. Winds are likely to remain below advisory, but several long period swell trains will pass through the waters over the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Steep swell dominated seas return to all areas by late Wednesday night and are likely to persist through the weekend. Seas are forecast to reach a peak Friday night into Saturday at around 13 to 17 feet at 15 to 17 seconds.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.