textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Other than some morning valley fog in the Umpqua Valley this morning, not a whole lot going on as high clouds will start to move through the forecast area tonight. A thermal trough set up along the Oregon coast will keep us warm and dry through the weekend with temperatures pushing into upper 70's and perhaps lower 80's over some locations.

Fog will likely fill into the Umpqua Valley tonight around 12Z as there is some boundary layer moisture there, although the drier air today could dry things out. Plus, the higher clouds could reflect some of that long wave radiation back to earth. In any case, we kept fog in the forecast, although confidence still isn't high in the formation.

Sunday will be another warm day as the thermal trough begins to move farther inland. However, our temperatures stay put with highs in the upper 70's west of the Cascades and low 70's east of the Cascades.

Monday is an interesting day as the ridge breaks down and a short wave moves into southern Oregon early in the day. A few models and about 15-25% of GEFS/ECMWF ENS are bringing precipitation to the Cascades and other portions of our forecast area. Looking at GFS model soundings, there is convective available potential energy(CAPE) along the Cascade crest with some of that CAPE is between -10C to -20C. The latest and greatest experimental rapid refresh forecast system(RRFS) is modeling echos >40dbz with some lightning east of the Cascades mostly in our CWA. Therefore, we put some thunderstorms in the forecast along the Cascades, although they will most likely be showers with some occasional rumbles of thunder. Its more of a question of where these will develop not if they will develop. Keep a look out for showers east of the Cascades on Monday as well.

By Tuesday, a cold/stationary front will settle over central Oregon with a cutoff low off the coast of northern California. The models are bringing a 10-20% chance of rain to the area. A trough in Canada then slides down the Cascades and it seems the chances of rain increase to about 50% on Wednesday. There is still a lot of variability on Wednesday with some ensemble members keeping things completely dry, while others bring in plenty of precipitation with some thunderstorms. The variability could continue give the split flow and cut off low in the Pacific. Given the higher snow levels, don't expect any significant snow with the precipitation on Wednesday.

-Smith

AVIATION...04/18Z TAFs

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period for most the area. Gusty north winds will continue through the day for much of the coast and over the coastal waters. Late tonight into early Sunday, LIFR conditions could return to the Umpqua Basin, once again impacting Roseburg around sunrise Sunday morning. Additionally, the flow will turn to southeast at North Bend early Sunday morning, which could bring a period of LIFR conditions from the Coquille Basin. As the flow turns more southerly over the marine waters south of Cape Blanco, there could be some LIFR/IFR conditions in marine stratus that develop offshore. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Saturday, April 4, 2026

Gusty north winds will persist today, maintaining steep seas for all areas into tonight. Winds gradually ease tonight into Sunday, allowing for improving conditions for the inner waters by late tonight. Steep seas persist for the outer waters into Sunday morning, then relatively calm conditions are expected through early next week. Another thermal trough develops next week, bringing another round of strong north winds and steep seas by Tuesday afternoon and strengthening through at least Wednesday night. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.