textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

The forecast was updated this evening to add to the list of wind hazards. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake County (north and east of Lakeview) and extending into far eastern Klamath County from Saturday evening into Sunday evening. Southwest gusts of 35 to 55 mph are expected. Otherwise, a High Wind Warning remains in effect for the southern Oregon coast into Sunday morning, a Wind Advisory for the Shasta Valley late tonight into Sunday evening, and a Wind Advisory for the southern Rogue Valley from late tonight through Sunday morning.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect above 4500 feet from late Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for Siskiyou County with southerly upslope flow expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of snow.

Lastly, please see the Hydrology section below for details related to heavy rain, focused at the coast and extending into portions of the west side from Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION...21/06Z TAFS

An offshore front will bring widespred mid to high cloud cover. Tonight into early Saturday morning, expect ceilings lowering to MVFR along the coast and MVFR may develop for some areas just inland, mainly into the Umpqua Basin. We don't think fog will reform tonight in the valleys west of the Cascades since there should be a ceiling in the 4000-6000 ft range and light to breezy south winds. With some light precip possible from the Cascades west, there could be terrain obscurations as well. Increasing winds aloft and a low-level inversion present around 1500-2000 ft AGL will cause a risk for low-level wind shear (LLWS) from the coast to the Cascades late tonight and Saturday. Stronger south-southeast winds will develop along the coast, from around Cape Blanco southward through Saturday with a period of very strong winds are possible Saturday night into Sunday. Breezy to windy conditions will also develop over higher terrain, the Shasta Valley, southern Rogue Valley and over to the East Side during the weekend.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Friday, February 20, 2026

The brief periods of lighter winds and lower seas (6-7 ft) will end this evening as a strong storm system moves southward over the eastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers over the eastern Pacific through the weekend. This system will spin up multiple surface low pressures along 130W, the strongest of which is expected Saturday afternoon/evening.

Conditions will deteriorate this evening and overnight as the first surface low impacts area waters. Advisory level winds are likely to return through this evening, ramping up to gales overnight. As the strongest low pressure deepens offshore on Saturday, gales are likely to increase to storm force Saturday afternoon/evening, especially for the outer waters. These strong winds will result in very steep and dangerous seas late tonight through Saturday. Winds ease just below gales late Sunday, but seas are likely to remain very steep and hazardous well into early next week. Calmer conditions are likely from Tuesday through the end of the week.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 253 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026/

DISCUSSION...Strong low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will drop southward over the eastern Pacific tonight and linger there through this weekend. This will spawn several areas of low pressure which will bring multiple frontal systems to the coast this weekend into early next week.

Initially, tonight, as the first offshore front approaches, snow levels will be fairly low and will start out around 2000-2500 feet. Precip chances increase through this evening along the coast and eventually inland to around the Cascades overnight into Saturday morning. Precipitation from this first system is likely to be quite light, but with lower snow levels, we wouldn't be surprised to see a little snow around the Mt Shasta region on I-5 or even the passes to the north overnight into Saturday morning. We could even see some wet snow mix in at times tonight at the lower passes west of the Cascades (Sexton/Canyon Mt./Hayes Hill/Camas). Despite the potential for some wet snow, we don't expect accumulations to be high enough anywhere to warrant winter weather advisories.

Meanwhile, the flow will back to the south and southeast tonight into Saturday and this will increase the pressure gradients resulting in an increase in winds. We are already seeing some SSE wind surfacing in the Shasta Valley and along the coast. Winds will increase further in these areas and we have issued a High Wind Warning along the coast. Since the flow is more SSE, we expect most of the wind impacts from the next couple of fronts to be south of Bandon, and especially from Cape Blanco southward at the coastal headlands. Wind gusts of 50-65 mph will be common, possibly peaking at 75 mph during the period of strongest winds at the headlands during Saturday night. Since the strongest low pressure area is forecast to remain a bit farther offshore, winds aloft inland (while still strong) are comparatively weaker. We think we'll see advisory wind gusts (40-55 mph) in the Shasta Valley and even into portions of the Rogue Valley late tonight through Sunday morning (Rogue Valley), or Sunday afternoon (Shasta Valley). We don't think stronger winds will begin over the East Side until late Saturday pm/evening at the earliest, so we held off on wind headlines over there for now. It should be noted that wind speeds will increase over the higher terrain during this period (Sat-Sun) as well with gusts in the 40-60 mph range above 4000 feet, but above 3000 feet in more exposed locations.

Snow levels will continue to rise Saturday night through Sunday to above 4000 feet. Again, this should keep the core of the winter impacts with a second stronger front arriving at the coast to the higher terrain and directed into NorCal. We upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for above 4500 feet in Zones 80, 82 and 83 (since that's where the majority of the heavy snow is expected) for Saturday night through Sunday. Some wet snow could fall/briefly accumulate at elevations below 4500 feet by early Sunday morning, but shouldn't amount to more than an inch or two. We lopped off the end of the watch (which originally went through Sunday night) because it appears the flow will reorient Sunday night, and by then, snow levels will have risen above 6000 feet and either precipitation will end for a while or snow will be confined to the highest elevations.

In terms of rainfall, the steadiest, heaviest rain is likely at the coast late Saturday night into Sunday. There could be a break Sunday night into Monday morning, then another surge of heavier precip late Monday into Tuesday. But, guidance has been waffling back and forth with just how far inland the heavier band gets. Recent 12z models have decreased QPF quite a bit for areas inland compared to just 24 hours ago, but amounts remain substantial along the coast. Generally, amounts for the entire duration (through Tuesday) range from 3-6 inches along the coast (up to 8 inches Curry coast ranges) with 1-3 inches inland and into western Siskiyou County and Mt. Shasta region, with now lesser amounts in the downslope valleys like the Rogue and Shasta Valley with 0.50-1.00 inch. East Side areas may have to wait until Monday night/Tuesday's front to see much. We are forecasting 0.10 (deserts east of the Warners) to 0.25-0.50 of an inch in most other areas. Winter Rim and other mountains may see slightly higher amounts. For information on flood potential, please see the Hydrology discussion below.

The entire system finally pushes east of the Cascades Tuesday night and the latest guidance is bringing higher confidence in a drier, milder pattern evolving for the middle to latter part of next week.

HYDROLOGY...A weak to moderate atmospheric river will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall later this weekend into early next week. The first frontal system is forecast to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday with several rounds of precipitation continuing through Tuesday morning. Early indications point towards widespread 72hr totals around 4 to 6 inches along the coast with locally 8 inches in the favored coast ranges of Curry County. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the Mount Shasta region and also other favored areas of western Siskiyou County. For further perspective, the probability for at least 1.50" of rainfall over a 24 hour period is roughly 50%-80% for any 24hr time period starting Sunday and continuing through Tuesday. In fact, there are a couple time periods on Sunday and again on Tuesday where the probability for 1.0"/6hrs is 20%-40%. In other words, there is high confidence for moderate to heavy rainfall.

Small streams and creeks are likely to see rapid rises during this event with nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways likely during periods of heavy rain. Significant rises on main stem rivers and flashier creeks are also expected. Given that rivers are still running fairly low for this time of year, river flooding potential is a bit lower than usual, but there is at least a low probability of some flooding, especially in the Coquille Basin. We have issued a Hydrologic Outlook (ESFMFR) to highlight this potential.

We will continue to monitor the forecasts and update accordingly. Flood Watches may be issued by the National Weather Service if this situation worsens or becomes more likely for flooding.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Sunday for ORZ026-030-031.

High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022.

High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for CAZ080-082-083.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Sunday for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for PZZ356.

Gale Warning until 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ370- 376.