textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge remains over the area, keeping warm temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast for today. Coastal areas may reach the mid 60s, although marine stratus may keep things cooler north of Cape Blanco. West side valleys will be in the mid 70s to low 80s, while valleys and basins to the east look to be in the high 60s to low 70s.

Thunderstorms remain the main area of interest for Friday through Monday, with a cutoff low following the Pacific coast towards California. For Friday and Saturday, the highest chances (15-25%) are from western Siskiyou County to the Cascades, including Jackson and eastern Douglas County. CAPE values are somewhat moderate, with 200-400 J/Kg generally expected on Friday with chances of 500-600 J/Kg values on Saturday. This indicates that Saturday could be the more active day, but neither day has any strong indicators of severe activity so coverage will likely be isolated to scattered. Precipitable water values suggest that any thunderstorms that develop on these days could include rain showers.

On Sunday and Monday, the cutoff starts to drift eastward over California which would bring more widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms rather than cellular development. Today's modeling has the low drifting slightly farther south than Wednesday's, which has reduced the forecast rainfall amounts slightly. The Warner Mountains, Cascades, and Mount Shasta region could see 0.6 to 0.8 inches of rainfall across Sunday and Monday. Valleys to the south will see more rain (0.3 - 0.4 inches in the Shasta Valley and near Alturas) than areas to the north (0.1 - 0.2 inches in the Umpqua Valley and Christmas Valley). Embedded thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening of both days. Sunday's highest chances (15- 20%) are over Siskiyou and Modoc counties, then the highest chances (15-25%) move to the east over Modoc and southern Lake and Klamath counties.

While chances for rain and lightning shift from day to day, temperatures will generally remain warm. West side valleys areas may see some cooling on Monday, but only to seasonal norms. As the cutoff drifts farther east, an upper ridge develops over the western United States. Warm and dry conditions are forecast for Tuesday through at least Friday. There's some uncertainty beyond Friday as the pattern continues to progress rather than form any kind of blocking pattern. Long-term ensembles show a slight cooling trend beyond the forecast period, but precipitation signals are few and scattered aimlessly in ensemble meteograms. -TAD

AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs

IFR ceilings and lower visibilities are present at North Bend under a layer of marine stratus. This layer looks to clear out this afternoon as northerly winds pick up. Marine stratus and MVFR to IFR levels look to return to coastal areas this evening or tonight. This marine layer may also reach into the Umpqua Valley, with a MVFR ceiling in the forecast to indicate possible timing. These lower flight levels may stick around through the rest of the TAF period.

Other inland areas are expected to stay at VFR levels with only diurnal breezes and high clouds. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Thursday, April 30, 2026.

A thermal trough pattern will bring gusty north winds into Saturday evening. The strongest winds and very steep seas are expected south of Ophir this afternoon and evening, and again on Friday. Seas will be steep elsewhere. Winds diminish while a longer period northwest swell builds late Saturday night, then becomes dominant later Sunday into Monday.

BEACH HAZARDS

A short period northwest swell and a building long period northwest swell may combine their energy to produce unpredictable waves washing up on area beaches. The risk will be highest around sunrise on Sunday morning.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Never turn away from the ocean!

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.