textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening just shy of critical thresholds of wind and humidity in much the same portions of the area that did reach those levels yesterday. This includes the Shasta Valley, eastern Siskiyou, Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake Counties.

* Hot, very dry, breezy, and unstable conditions will continue this weekend.

* Smoke will persist for Jackson, Klamath, and Siskiyou counties through the weekend, with some temporary afternoon into early evening improvement expected for Klamath and Siskiyou counties. Also, an influx of smoke into Lake County from fires in central Oregon.

* Thunderstorms re-enter the forecast beginning as early as Monday, mainly for the Cascades and east side. The highest risk will be on Tuesday and Wednesday, including lesser chances for areas west of the Cascades.

DISCUSSION

The general weather pattern will continue again this afternoon with warm, dry, breezy, and unstable conditions across southern Oregon and northern California. Satellite imagery is showing some coastal stratus dissipating near Brookings. A few cumulus are being observed northeast of Crater Lake and across the Warners eastward in Modoc and Lake Counties. There is some smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire funneling into the Rogue Valley. While there may be some brief improvement this afternoon, expect smoke to return again this evening. Sunday will be generally a repeat of today with weaker winds.

By Sunday night and continuing into Monday, a plume of monsoonal moisture aloft will bring high clouds into the area. This could generate a few showers, mainly over the higher terrain, but most of any showers would evaporate before reaching the ground. Weak instability on Monday afternoon is expected to generate a few thunderstorms with a focus on the Cascades into northern Klamath County.

On Tuesday into Wednesday, southerly flow aloft is expected between a trough offshore tracking northward and the persistent ridge over the Great Basin. There is more uncertainty in the convective forecast. But also, more potential for a significant amount of thunderstorms as well as a potential for activity on the west side. A larger portion of the suite of ensemble members does indicate a majority of activity from the Cascades eastward and isolated rather than scattered coverage. It would be of note that the storms could be mixed wet and dry on Monday, but trend wetter over time. Precipitable Waters would be around 200% of normal, and this could cause some significant rain in thunderstorms.

Model uncertainty increases another notch on Thursday, but the region of instability is likely to shift east-northeastward. This could bring another day of thunderstorm activity to the east side, or shift the activity east and northeast out of area.

For Friday into Saturday, the pattern has some resemblance to the current picture. This would result in a dry forecast, but a slow moving dry front would also produce enhanced afternoon and evening winds, strongest on the east side.

AVIATION...19/00Z TAFs

Gusty winds will continue through early this evening, strongest along the coast, in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades.

VFR will prevail across inland areas through the TAF period. One exception will be impacts from wildfire smoke that will bring periods of MVFR visibilities and/or ceilings to the Rogue Valley, Klamath Basin, and Shasta Valley including Medford, Klamath Falls, and Montague. Smoke from central Oregon fires will also impact Lake County, including Lakeview.

Along the coast, IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to develop (beginning around 05-08z) with marine stratus late this evening and overnight, persisting through late Sunday morning. This will mainly affect areas from Cape Blanco northward and from Brookings south.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, July 18, 2026

Gusty north winds will continue with steep seas to very steep seas through Sunday evening. Strongest winds and very steep seas are expected from Port Orford south beyond 5 nm from shore. Steep, short period seas and areas of gusty winds will linger across the waters Sunday night into Monday. Seas will transition on Monday from wave dominated to fresh swell. Conditions gradually improve late Monday and Monday night. Further improvement follows Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure may move up from the south late Tuesday and Wednesday but is expected to remain well offshore.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, July 18, 2026

The three main aspects of the fire weather forecast for the next week are: first, the extent of hot, dry, and breezy/windy conditions today through Sunday, second, the potential risk and coverage of thunderstorms while inland temperatures remain above normal during Monday through Thursday, and lastly, a likely transition to dry and slightly cooler weather late next week that would likely be accompanied by stronger than normal east side westerly winds.

The forecast through Sunday is consistent and pretty straight- forward. Hot temperatures at 5 to 10 degrees above normal will continue to trend slightly upward, humidities will remain significantly drier than normal, and breezy afternoon winds will trend just slightly weaker today than yesterday, before returning to typical strength for Sunday afternoon. The slight moistening of the air mass on Sunday will be accompanied by a late day increase of high clouds, and perhaps some east side cumulus buildups.

Instability could develop as early as late Sunday night into Monday morning, with a few very light showers or virga possible over the higher terrain. A slight chance risk of thunderstorms is expected Monday afternoon, with the highest probability of thunderstorms over the Cascades. Then, on Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a greater uncertainty regarding the area of focus, but also a greater concern that both a significant amount of lightning may develop and coverage may include the west side...east of the Coast Range. For now, the NBM forecast is utilized with a slight chance of mainly east side thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Also to be mentioned is that there is the possibility that with the modified tropical moisture influx in addition to the monsoonal influx of moisture, these storms will become wetter over time.

Late in the week (Thursday/Friday), some eastward movement in the pattern is likely, which is likely to shift the region of instability east of our area. But, a plausible, slower solution would keep instability and some slight thunderstorm risk over eastern portions of Lake and Modoc counties.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.