textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...17/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for most locations. The exception is IFR/LIFR in marine stratus is expected to develop over the marine waters and move into the immediate coastline this evening and overnight, mainly from Cape Blanco north. These conditions will continue into Tuesday morning, then improve to VFR by the afternoon. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 333 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2026/

DISCUSSION...Key Points: Very warm afternoons inland, approaching or reaching record highs, with low to moderate humidity levels through Thursday. An increase of clouds, and slight cooling on Friday ahead of a weak and weakening cold front. Turning cooler on the weekend (by around 10 to 15 degrees) with a distinct minority of ensemble members showing sufficient low level moisture for rain chances, mainly west of the Cascades. Uncertainty increases beyond the weekend, with the GEFS members leaning toward a more progressive pattern and increasing rain chances early next week. Meanwhile, the ECMWF favors a continuation of the weekend pattern through at least Monday with temperatures remaining modestly above normal. By Tuesday, Day 8, a front may arrive that is strong enough for a rainy day with seasonable snow levels (most likely above most of the major passes).

Regarding the heat, we'll likely break records in Alturas, Mount Shasta City and Montague Tuesday through Friday, and approach records for Roseburg and Medford. Right now, it still looks like we'll fall short of records by a degree or two today, although it's not impossible to tie or break one of those.

The NBM is distinctly, overly enthusiastic regarding the proximity and depth of low layer moisture over the coastal waters and coast during the short and mid term portion of the forecast. Some patches of night and morning coastal fog are expected, but the coast should remain free of precipitation until early Friday, at the earliest.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, March 16, 2026...Winds shift to southerly today into tonight as seas remain low. West swell builds Tuesday, but conditions are expected to remain below advisory levels through Friday. By Saturday, a thermal trough develops, bringing gusty north winds with steep to very steep seas possible, continuing into Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.