textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation section

AVIATION...19/12Z TAFs

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the afternoon. IFR to LIFR conditions are forecast to return later this evening to the Coos County coast near North Bend and south of Cape Blanco and will lift near 15Z. VFR conditions will be present overnight inland. -Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 401 AM PDT Thu Mar 19 2026/

DISCUSSION...

Unusually warm temperatures mixed with some fire weather conditions are the main headlines in the forecast for today. The fire weather conditions are discussed in the Fire Weather section below. We set 6 temperature records yesterday with North Bend the only site missing out due to some onshore flow and coastal stratus.

The Extreme Forecast Index(EFI) continues to show widespread values of 1 today. This suggests the ECMWF ensemble members are all exceeding the model climatology in widespread areas. The 500 mb heights around 586dm are also in the extremes of climatology for this time of year in northern California. This will continue to result in daytime temperatures pushing 15 to 25 degrees above normal for mid March with multiple records falling.

Alturas' record of 81 could be tied or perhaps fall. Mount Shasta City's record of 74 will fall to a high around 82. Montague's record of 77 will probably fall to a high around 79. Medford's record of 81 could be tied or perhaps fall. Klamath Falls' record of 72 will fall to a high around 76. Roseburg's record of 81 will likely stand today as we're only forecasting a high of 76 up there. There will be some weak lift farther to the north in Central Oregon, so some high clouds could keep things a little cooler up there. There is also some stronger onshore flow

By Friday, the ridge begins to break down as 500 mb heights start to lower over Oregon and northern California. Even with the breakdown, we're still expecting some more temperature records to fall across the region. Eventually, a short wave and cold front will push into the forecast area around Saturday morning with a slight chance of rain. No impacts are anticipated with this frontal passage. Temperatures will trend cooler as relatively cooler air moves in behind the front. Monday will be a be a break between the systems before models want to spin up another low in the Pacific. The GFS low center still seems to be too far east compared to the ensemble range. In any case, the probability of precipitation forecast is around 60 to 80 percent Tuesday into Wednesday with snow levels dropping down to 4000 feet behind the front. Don't count on a lot of snow with this system as only a few inches are anticipated in the Cascades.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, March 19, 2026...Conditions will remain below advisory levels through Friday evening. A thermal trough develops early Saturday, bringing gusty north winds with gales possible into Sunday, and steep to very steep seas possible into Monday. The outlook is for conditions to briefly improve Monday afternoon and evening. Advisory strength winds are likely around the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe as another cold front swings through the waters. Gales are also possible if the front is strong enough.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, March 18, 2026...An abnormally strong ridge remains in place today and tomorrow, then will retreat as a dry cold front approaches and passes through the area Friday into Saturday.

Under the ridge, very warm conditions continue, with near-record or record daily high temperatures expected again today, with low daytime humidities and moderate recoveries, poor over the ridges.

The mostly dry front approaches the area tomorrow into Friday before passing through the region Friday night into Saturday. This will produce breezy winds across the area, with gusty winds of 25 mph or more eats of the Cascades. These winds, combined with residual low humidities, will produce critical fire weather conditions in fire zones 625 and eastern 624, with dry and breezy conditions expected elsewhere east of the Cascades, including in Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties. With the abnormally dry conditions, low snowpack, and pre-greenup fuels across the area of concern, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday afternoon for zones 625 and eastern 624. In these areas, there is a 50 to 70 percent probability of humidities below 15 percent occuring concurrent with wind gusts above 25 mph. These ensembles have a tendency to underestimate winds and overestimate humidities, so those probabilities may actually be higher within the Warning area. Details on the Red Flag Warning can be found in the PDXRFWMFR.

Conditions Friday afternoon will be similar, but slightly improved, although dry humidities and gusty winds are still expected, and will shift slightly east and south from those on Thursday.

Conditions cool to more seasonable values and humidities rise a bit this weekend behind the departing front, then wetter and cooler conditions are possible with a more active pattern by the middle of next week. -BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.