textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* An unusually strong system for early September is producing widespread rainfall, along with gusty winds at the coast and across the East Side.

* Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees cooler than normal today and Thursday.

* Cooler conditions with shower chances persisting into early next week.

* Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected on Thursday and again Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Widespread rain is ongoing across the region, and will continue through this evening. So far, amounts have been somewhat modest, but even these modest amounts are much more than we would typically see during the first few days of September. Precipitation will taper off from west to east as the afternoon and evening wear on and the front passes.

By Thursday, the cold front will be in south eastern Oregon and weakening, while the upper level trough settles in overhead. Showers and cooler temperatures will linger over the area for as long as the trough remains overhead, which looks to be through around Monday. In addition to the showers, a few thunderstorms will probably develop over southern Oregon and northern California Thursday through Sunday afternoons, mainly as a result of increased instability due to the cold air aloft. The available instablity is weak, so strong storms are not expected, but some lightning is not out of the question as the CAPE touches the -10C to -15C level. The NBM Tstorm probability is also 15-20% across the majority of the area.

Although the air is unusually cold with this system, our overnight low temperature forecast with the NBM/NDFD is likely too cold, especially in some of the valleys east of the Cascades. Lingering cloud cover from a low being overhead should keep temperatures from dropping too low. For example, the NBM has 28 for a low at KLMT with a 30% probability of precipitation in the region and a 6400 foot snow level Thursday night. Other deterministic guidance has lows in the mid to upper 30's at KLMT.

The upper level low will hang around until Monday, then there is a chance that brief period of ridging will bring warmer, more seasonable conditions back to the region. This would be short lived, however, as ensemble guidance suggests another trough could enter the area with another round of cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

A front making its way through the region is bring widespread rainfall which will eventually impact all terminals through this cycle. This will also result in MVFR ceilings through this cycle. Rainfall may also result in reduced visibilities. Additionally, the wind speeds will be enhanced along/near the coast, and there will be a strong low level jet that will result in wind shear along the coast which will impact KOTH through late this afternoon/early evening. This jet could be around 60 knots at about 2000 feet. Overall, the front is bringing deteriorating conditions across the region, but some relief is expected late tonight into tomorrow morning as the front moves out of the region and rainfall becomes more isolated to scattered.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, September 2, 2026

South gales and very steep and hazardous seas will continue until the front passes onshore late this afternoon. While winds will diminish behind the front, they will remain gusty with steep combined seas continuing through Thursday night. Conditions improve further on Friday, with winds shifting to the north, then remain relatively calm through the weekend and into early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 7 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.