textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Brookings looks to reach peak heating today with an afternoon high around 65 to 70 due to a stronger northeast low level flow. Otherwise, the weather in our area this morning looks much the same as it did during the previous few days, and this will continue to be the case through Tuesday. As such, the Air Stagnation Advisory /PDXNPWMFR/ was extended yesterday to extend through Tuesday. Along with that, a Freezing Fog Advisory also is in effect for west side valleys this morning. There is a high likelihood that these conditions will also continue in subsequent mornings, with the slight caveat that the Umpqua Valley may not get quite so chilly and stay just above freezing for morning lows.

While west side valleys remain foggy for much of the time, clear skies and wide diurnal temperature ranges (cold mornings and much warmer than normal afternoons) will continue above the strong valley inversions and across the east side.

The main uncertainty in the forecast regards the characteristics of a potential transition away from our ridge dominated pattern, as early as Tuesday night. It's not a surprise that many of the ensemble members persist with ridging through Wednesday, while the main uncertainty is whether the latter portion of next week is characterized by a transition to a Pacific trough dominated pattern that weakens the ridge and kicks it inland (favored by the GFS), or whether the longwave ridge retrogrades with a trough being carved out over the Rockies (per the ECMWF). Both would be at least somewhat active, but the Pacific dominated pattern would have a much higher probability of beneficial precipitation. In either case, the probability of a change in the current pattern does increase for Wednesday night onward, but there is only about a 30% probability that the change leads to a wet forecast late next week.

AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs

Conditions early this morning are similar to the previous few mornings, with LIFR/IFR valley fog/freezing fog in valleys west of the Cascades. The pattern will persist with the LIFR/IFR lingering through the morning into the early afternoon, then returning this evening into Friday morning. Except, LIFR/IFR may linger through the day in the Illinois Valley and Grants Pass area.

Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions to continue. Breezy northeast winds over the Coast Range are expected to keep fog away from most of the coast this morning, with the exception of North Bend as fog coverage expands from the Coquille Valley. Clearing is expected later this morning. But, southeast flow is expected to return fog to North Bend late this evening into early Friday morning.

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Thursday, January 15, 2026

A Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect south of Cape Blanco beyond 5 nm from shore, with a Small Craft Advisory for the remainder of the southern Oregon waters. Westerly swells will remain in place as a thermal trough continues to build today. Seas were at a peak last evening, but will diminish slowly, and only slightly into this evening at around 8 to 12 ft at 13 seconds. While the west swell will be dominant, there is a very notable north wind wave and fresh swell contribution. Late tonight into early Friday, swell will diminish, but seas are likely to remain steep as wind waves and fresh swell will be slower to diminish.

The thermal trough will linger through the latter half of the week. Conditions will continue to improve Friday into the weekend, with only a slight increase in the height of light west swell early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ023-024-026.

Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ023-024- 026-029>031.

CA...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ356- 376.