textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)

Along and near the coast, a marine layer is expanding and expected to bring LIFR/IFR conditions through most of this TAF cycle for KOTH. That said, the afternoon is expected to bring some relief to VFR similar to earlier this afternoon. Also expecting some radiational fog to develop in the Umpqua Valley which may bring MVFR to IFR conditions for KRBG through parts of Saturday morning. Otherwise, both KMFR and KLMT will likely see VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and overall light wind speeds.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 259 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Night and morning low clouds and fog at the coast north of Cape Blanco, and locally near Brookings during the next week, at a maximum tonight (including early morning stratus briefly to Roseburg).

* Inland high temperatures trend a few to several degrees hotter for Saturday and Sunday, at 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

* Very warm and dry conditions this weekend will bring some elevated fire weather concerns due to near summer-like dryness. But, with weak winds, critical fire weather conditions are not expected. * A weak upper level disturbance Sunday with an increase of high clouds. But, also...for Lake and Modoc counties...late Sunday night into Monday morning will bring some virga, with a very low chance (5%) for showers or thunderstorms.

* Very warm temperatures persist through the middle of next week. Cooler temperatures late next week, still around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

* From Friday into Saturday, Day 7-8, around 10-20% probability of very light coastal (Coos/Douglas counties) rain.

DISCUSSION...Inland temperatures will be summer-like during much of the next week, especially through Wednesday. But, seasonable signs include cool morning lows, and mostly clear coastal skies to the south of Cape Blanco most of the time. Considering the next week, coastal low cloud coverage will actually be at a peak tonight, and expected to surge into the Umpqua Valley early to mid Saturday morning. The greater stratus coverage is partially due to a weak shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest tonight into Saturday. Meantime, a strong ridge centered over the Four Corners area will continue building into the area with further warming and drying that is expected to reach a peak during the weekend.

A weak disturbance now offshore from northern California will track relatively quickly eastward. An increase of high clouds is expected for Sunday, then from late Sunday night into Monday morning, it may bring virga with a low probability (5%) of thunderstorms to Lake and Modoc counties.

In comparison with the weekend, this trough passage will leave slightly weaker ridging in its wake for Monday to Wednesday. Forecast confidence is very high through Wednesday.

Beginning Thursday, the strength of a trough moving east- southeast into western Canada has some model differences. This is likely to bring a cooling trend. But, cooler temperatures late in the week are still likely to be above normal. About 15% to 20% of ensemble members indicate that the trough will be strong enough to bring light rain chances to Coos and Douglas counties on Friday into Saturday (Day 7/8), with a higher probability to the north.

The extended outlook still looks dry or relatively dry, with another 10-15% probability of some weak disturbance with mentionable rain chances around Day 11-12/Tuesday October 13th into Wednesday the 14th.

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

Areas of IFR will linger north of Cape Blanco into early this evening. Conditions north of Cape Blanco will deteriorate during the evening with a mix of LIFR/IFR expected from around 03Z through 18Z Saturday morning. Also, patchy LIFR is expected both near Brookings and into the Umpqua Valley (including Roseburg) around 06Z through 18Z. Elsewhere, VFR with mostly clear skies will persist.

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Friday, October 2, 2026...North winds and seas are expected to persist beneath a thermal trough pattern this weekend. The winds and seas will just barely reach the lower end of small craft advisory levels (winds of generally 15-25 kt and seas 5-7 feet at 6-7 seconds), highest south of Cape Blanco through tonight, spreading up to around Cape Arago on Saturday and then more over the outer waters late Saturday night into Sunday as the thermal trough moves inland. Even so, gusty north winds are likely to develop again both Monday and Tuesday afternoons with steep seas possible again closer to shore. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ370.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ376.