textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid TAF period with one caveat along/near the coast. We may see low clouds develop and impact KOTH, but at this time these clouds do not appear to be thick enough to warrant any categorical chances. That said, did hint at this with a FEW deck at 1000 ft. Otherwise, high clouds are expected with typical diurnal wind speeds today/tonight.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 354 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue today with a Red Flag warning in effect for Modoc, southwest Klamath, and southwest Lake counties for enhanced winds coupled with low RH.

* Thunderstorm chances increase Monday and Tuesday for mainly eastside areas and northern California, but cannot rule out some activity across Jackson County. Main threats are lightning and strong outflow gusts.

* Thunderstorm risk could linger into Wednesday, but chances are less than Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION...

High pressure at 500mb is noted east of the forecast area as of writing this. We also have a 500mb trough/closed low entering the British Columbia area which is placing southwesterly flow over the forecast area. Also of note is another area of low pressure on the southwestern extent of the main trough mentioned above. Models do try to cut-off this southwestern extent later today. Ultimately, this pattern will lead to southwesterly flow aloft through at least Wednesday. Thereafter, the pattern starts to become out of phase as models differ in the handling of the trough over British Columbia, so there is uncertainty beyond Wednesday.

This pattern will lead to another breezy afternoon coupled with low RH. Critical fire weather conditions continue across southeastern portions of the forecast area where a Red Flag Warning remains in place. That said, we will see overall improved conditions compared to yesterday's peak fire weather conditions.

Attention then turns to the thunderstorm potential early to middle of next week. For Monday, we will start to see the monsoonal moisture start to pump into the PacNW. That said, we are lacking some of the better upper level dynamics, and we may end up with most of the activity to the southeast and east of the forecast area. Cannot rule out a few isolated showers/thunderstorms on Monday for eastside areas. On Tuesday, upper levels dynamics will be better with the upper trough edging closer to shore and an jet streak over the forecast area. CAPE is modest around a couple hundred J/kg to upwards near 500 J/kg. Any storm that forms will have the potential for strong outflow gusts around 45mph in addition to lightning. The lightning over dry fuels could become an issue, and we may need to consider Red Flag Warnings for this threat. On Wednesday, we will see less CAPE and less overall moisture, so thunderstorm chances will decrease on Wednesday. Overall, Tuesday will have the greatest threat for thunderstorms, but the chances Mon-Wed are not overly high any of these days given the weak setup for our area.

Beyond middle of the week, the upper level pattern differs between models and this is leading to little overall confidence in the details. We could see high temperatures trend toward the triple digits by Friday and continue through the weekend. There doesn't appear to be any strong signal for precipitation later in the week.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

IFR and LIFR is expected to develop at the coast late tonight and early Sunday morning, with gradual clearing expected 15-18z. Inland, IFR ceilings are expected to develop in the Umpqua, including at Roseburg (KRBG), late tonight into early Sunday morning (10-16z), with clearing to VFR between 16-18z.

All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period. However, Medford (KMFR) may see periods of reduced visibilities with areas of smoke spreading into the area. Fire activity will continue to be monitored, but for now it is impacting areas to the north of Medford most. Gusty winds are expected area wide again Sunday afternoon and evening, strongest east of the Cascades (gusts 20-30 mph).

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Sunday, July 12, 2026...Gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco will bring conditions hazardous to small craft through Sunday morning. Starting late Sunday morning, steep seas spread north of Cape Blanco as northerly winds strengthen. Conditions improve Monday afternoon, but areas of steep seas and borderline advisory winds may persist into mid-week for areas south of Port Orford.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 300 AM Sunday, July 12, 2026...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue through today, with a Red Flag Warning in place for southeast portions of the forecast area.

Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the afternoons and evening continue across northern California and eastside areas. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens today coupled with gusty winds. This will result in critical fire weather conditions across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 today.

Thunderstorms are possible through the first half of the week as monsoonal moisture pumps into the region. There is currently a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon in southeastern Modoc County before expanding to more of Lake and eastern Klamath counties. However, Tuesday looks to have a higher chance for thunderstorms which could result in lightning over dry fuels for northern California and eastside areas. While chances continue into Wednesday, the overall threat will be lower when compared to Tuesday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.