textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Hot and dry conditions continue through the weekend. * Thunderstorm chances (10-20%) exist near central Siskiyou County through southern Lake County. * Sunday rain/thunderstorm chances focus on central and southern Siskiyou County. * The next trough arrives Monday afternoon, bringing a chance of rain. * Monday will have strong westerly winds and 10-20% RH east of the Cascades.

There are more cumulus clouds building in Northern California and east of the Cascades. A 15-25% of showers in southern and eastern Siskiyou County up through southern Lake County this afternoon. A few showers have been developing and moving east in southern Lake County near Valley Falls. In southern and eastern Siskiyou County there is a 10-20% chance for a thunderstorm to develop. Forecast rainfall totals are less than 0.05" in the aforementioned areas, with the exception of central Siskiyou County forecasting closer to 0.10". Temperatures will warm to the 60s/low 70s at the coast, 80s in the west side, and 70s/low 80s for east of the Cascades, and these will be similar tomorrow. There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms in central Siskiyou County tomorrow afternoon.

If you're liking the ~10-15 degree above normal temperatures, enjoy it while you can because a cooldown will start the next work week. Rain chances will also return to more of Southern Oregon and Northern California. The majority of clusters are still supporting that the upper low will move through Oregon Monday afternoon/evening. As the rain continues pushing inland, there is a 50-70% probability to see at least 0.20 inches between 11 PM Sunday- 11 PM Monday in Coos and Curry counties. Forecast CAPEs are not highlighting our area Monday, but values increase Tuesday afternoon, especially east of the Cascades.

Gusty winds will begin later Monday morning and will continue through the late evening. Forecast 700 mb winds are near the 45-50 mph mark, resulting in 20-30 mph surface sustained winds in the afternoon during peak mixing. Probabilities for wind gusts to reach 45 mph Monday for portions of Lake and Modoc counties are nearing 40- 60% Monday afternoon. However, portions of southern Lake County into the Warner Mountains through Modoc County have a 60-80% probability for gusts of 45 mph, so this will be monitored in case there is a need for a Wind Advisory. In the Rogue and Shasta valleys, winds are forecast to reach 20-25 mph with gusts in the 30-40 mph range. As stated above the rain will come later Monday, but the winds will impactful for afternoon Memorial Day activities.

Getting back to the temperatures, they will return to near normal by Monday before another drop brings them to 10-15 degrees below normal Tuesday (50s/low 60s). Showers remain Tuesday, and this will focus on locations west of the Cascades in Douglas and Coos counties. Although the rain will come to an end, the low will stall in the area, leaving us with cloudier skies and below normal temps. For now, the track will be to move the low south Thursday, and this will rebound temperatures to normal or warmer. -Hermansen

AVIATION

24/00Z TAFS

Cumulus build ups are expected again this afternoon and early evening, with isolated showers and thunderstorms from around the Scott and Shasta valleys in Siskiyou County east-northeastward into southern portions of Klamath and Lake counties, and also over the Warner Mountains of eastern Modoc County.

Later, from around 04Z through 17Z Sunday morning, expect areas of IFR/LIFR to redevelop along the coast, mainly from Cape Blanco northward and from Gold Beach southward.

Cumulus build ups and isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected again in western/central Siskiyou County Sunday afternoon.

MARINE...Updated 115 PM PDT Saturday, May 23, 2026

A thermal trough will continue to bring gusty north winds and steep seas through Sunday morning. Winds will be strongest this afternoon and evening. Seas may briefly become very steep this afternoon and evening from Port Orford to Pistol River. But, winds near shore to the south of Brookings will be weak today and become southerly. The south winds will extend to Cape Blanco Sunday, and across the waters with improving conditions Sunday night. A cold front will move through the waters on Memorial Day bringing rain and increasing seas. Seas are likely to become steep again on Monday afternoon, with the highest probability, strongest south winds expected to occur north of Cape Blanco. Swell dominated seas are expected to reach a peak on Tuesday at around 13 to 16 ft at 14 seconds.

High pressure offshore and lingering low pressure inland are likely to bring increasing north winds on Wednesday with gales possible south of Port Orford. Gusty north winds are likely to continue steep to very steep seas Wednesday night into Thursday while a long period west-northwest swell builds.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 215 PM PDT Saturday, May 23, 2026

Most areas in Southern Oregon and Northern California will remain dry through the weekend, and recent min RHs in the Rogue Valley, Northern California and east of the Cascades have been in the 15-25% range. There is an elevated threat for fire weather conditions in the coming days.

Monday will bring the highest threat with stronger winds ahead of a cold front. Sustained southwest/west winds east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley will be in the 20-25 kt range. As it stands, there is a 40-60% probability to see gusts reach 45 mph and this increases to 60-80% near Summer Lake, Lakeview and south near the Warner Mountains. There is more agreement that the cold front will arrive at the coast Monday afternoon, leaving an opportunity for peak heating and gusty winds to combine in these eastern locations. However, the latest check on fuel conditions from fire agencies hold areas in the low to moderate category. Precautionary actions should continue, especially during this higher threat Monday. -Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.