textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable warmth with dry conditions and afternoon breezes continue today and through much of the week ahead.

* Slight chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms are limited to eastern Douglas and northern Klamath counties. These chances decrease day-by-day through Monday.

* Smoke impacts for Jackson, Klamath, and Lake counties continue.

DISCUSSION

Seasonable conditions continue through the forecast period, with either southwest or zonal flow aloft and continuing dry conditions. Weak disturbances following this flow pattern are drawing on nearby monsoonal moisture to allow for isolated thunderstorm development. This activity is generally along the Cascades, with a few cells visible on radar over eastern Douglas County. These cells have not put out any lightning, but a few stray rain showers are possible near Steamboat and Toketee Falls early this morning. 15-20% thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and evening, but expectations are limited to the northern Klamath County area. Any activity that develops should ease by tonight.

Beyond thunderstorms, smoke impacts continue over Jackson, Klamath, and Lake counties from wildfires within and beyond the CWA. Dry and breezy conditions continue across the area, supporting fire weather concerns but staying outside of hazardous thresholds.

This overall pattern of upper disturbances continues into the week, but monsoonal moisture that is already mostly cut off from the area by the upper flow pattern starts to drift eastward. This will decrease already low chances for thunderstorms to the 5-15% range for Sunday and Monday. Currently, these chances remain limited to the eastern Douglas/northern Klamath area. Little change in temperatures are expected through the week, with minor day-to-day changes possible as a trough to the southwest and a ridge over the southern United states push against each other. Thunderstorm chances are currently out of the forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.

On Friday, the cutoff low forming the Pacific trough heads towards the area. This could bring lower temperatures, elevated southerly winds, and additional thunderstorm chances. Models are still trying to get a handle on timing and impacts of this motion. Precipitation chances for North Bend show the most support for this outcome, but even that is fairly limited (50-60% of precipitation some time over the weekend, with amounts between a trace and 0.2 inches). While the details of this cutoff's motion are currently coarse, right now there's no signal for widespread hazardous conditions. -TAD

AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs

Marine stratus remains in place, bringing MVFR to LIFR levels along the coast and MVFR ceilings into the Umpqua Valley early this morning. Coastal areas may see a brief period of clear skies before stratus rebuilds this evening, while the Umpqua Valley is currently expected to stay clear from late this morning and through the rest of the TAF period.

Other areas look to stay at VFR levels under clear skies. The Medford and Klamath Falls may see periods of lower visibilities due to wildfire smoke. Slight thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening are limited to eastern Douglas and northern Klamath counties. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Friday, August 14, 2026

Easing north winds and low seas will continue into Saturday morning, with sub- advisory conditions into Sunday morning. North winds will reach advisory strength south of Cape Blanco Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with a potential for steep seas to return on Tuesday afternoon.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.