textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

A sharp cold front is currently swinging through southern Oregon and will be through our sections of northern California by the evening hours. There are some heavy rain showers and weak thunderstorms along this front with rain rates up to 0.25 inches per hour in the heavier showers and storms. We also received a storm report from one cell as it produced some pea sized hail near Gold Beach.

Snow levels won't drop as low as previously thought along this front. Model data shows snow levels along and within the front around 2400 to perhaps 2600 feet, which is believeable given how warm surface temperatures have been, but they are quickly dropping as of writing this AFD. Camas Mountain is sitting at 34 degrees, which is cold enough for snow to fall to 1500 feet. Temperatures and snow levels will lower through the night behind the front and stay around or fall to 1500 feet later this evening. With the trough axis swinging into southern Oregon and northern California, one would think we see enough shower activity to produce snow impacts around 2000 feet later tonight. The SPC HREF is still hanging onto a 1-2 inch snow forecast around that level with a 10:1 snow ratio, which is probably on the high side given climatology and warmer temperatures today. In any case, we feel pretty confident with snow accumulating around 2000 feet this evening into tonight with some accumulation below that level.

Probabilistic data and some ECMWF ENS members are still open to some snow on the valley floors tonight. Given how warm temperatues were today, it's hard to see any snow impacts down to Medford tonight, but probablistic guidance would have you believe there is a chance. The NBM says 0% chance for an inch, but locally produced guidance on weather.gov/mfr/winter says 23% as of writing this AFD. The reality based on experience is some where in between and closer to 0%, although how that trough axis digs is somewhat concerning.

Eventually, showers should start to taper off as the trough axis moves eastwards and 500 mb heights begin to build around 12Z into the morning hours. Some showers will still linger into Thursday morning, although they'll be focused in the higher Cascades due to stronger orographic lift.

Colder air will remain in place for Thursday night with partly cloudy skies. Apparent temperatures will be in the lower 20's, which is near cold weather advisory territory. We decided against issuing a cold weather advisory as the average low for MFR is 32 and we're forecasting a low of 27 here in Medford and 24 in Ashland. It will be something to revisit in the forecast tomorrow or later tonight.

High pressure continues to build towards the end of the week and one would think we would see fog or freezing fog in the valleys with enough clearing overnight. The trusty MAVMFR MOS bulletins are showing plenty of FG with visibility near 1. Therefore, we'll likely see aviation impacts in the morning or late overnight hours Thursday night and perhaps Friday night.

Finally by the weekend, there are some PoPs in the forecast over the waters and along the coast. The enesembles are picking up on an atmospheric river hitting the BC coast with lower rainfall totals in our area.

-Smith

AVIATION...07/18Z TAFs

A sharp front will pass through the area today and tonight. This will bring a wide variety of conditions ranging from VFR to a mix of MVFR/IFR and higher terrain obscuration, but also scattered thunderstorms. These are most likely at North Bend and Roseburg as the frontal band moves in 19-22Z. Lower conditions are most likely in areas of steadier precip (-RA/- SN), but also in showers behind the fronts. Freezing levels in the 3000-4000 foot range this morning will lower to around 1500-2000 feet overnight into Thursday morning as precip type for all but the lower elevations of the west side becomes -SN. Accumulation on runways is very low, but not impossible. Best chance would be at Klamath Falls, but we think any snow would be less than 1 inch. Showers will taper off through Thursday morning. -Spilde/BPN

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Winds have shifted to the west-northwest behind the departing front, with showers persisting through this afternoon. Long period swell will build very steep seas this afternoon and tonight with dangerous bar and surf conditions continuing through Thursday night. Conditions gradually improve into Friday, but moderate south winds and steep seas are possible again this weekend. -Spilde/BPN

HIGH SURF...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Long period swell will continue to build into the coastal waters tonight into Thursday. Swell is expected to reach 15-20 feet throug this time, resulting in a high surf risk this afternoon into Thursday, with breaking waves in the surf zone of 22 to 26 feet. A High Surf Advisory is in effect. Please stay off jetties and remain out of the surf zone as beaches will be dangerous due to these high surf conditions. -Spilde/BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023-024- 026-029-030.

High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ021-022.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ025-027- 028.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ031.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.