textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

High clouds and some coastal stratus are the main weather feature this afternoon as the ridge finally begins to break down. Temperatures are trending cooler compared to 24 hours ago with Medford and Alturas 6 degrees lower compared to yesterday. With a low in the gulf of Alaska, we'll see strong southerly flow on Saturday with increasing cloud cover across the region.

The probability of precipitation gradually increases into Saturday evening as this atmospheric river(AR) hits the region. Data still shows IVT values around 500 to 550 for about 12 hours, which is pretty weak and typical for a winter system here. The short wave and cold front will push through the region by Sunday afternoon with the heaviest rain falling along the coast. Snow levels will start out very high around 7500 to 8000 feet Sunday morning. The cold front will eventually move through the region by Sunday evening. This will result in snow levels falling rapidly to 4500 feet behind the front with the snow accumulating Sunday evening in the mountains.

In general, we're forecasting 4 to 6 inches of snow in the higher Cascades. The spread we were seeing yesterday has narrowed a bit and snow totals have trended a bit lower, or the higher amounts have been removed from the ensembles. A 90th percentile snow fall event has 8 to 10 inches in the higher Cascades Sunday into Monday morning over 24 hours. Therefore, this still seems like a sub winter weather advisory event.

Winds are another thing to consider as this front and short wave will bring an uptick in wind speeds and gusts, especially east of the Cascades. 700 mb flow during Sunday afternoon is peaking around 40 to 45 knots. Wind decent mixing, wind gusts to 45 mph seems completely reasonable during SUnday afternoon and some the BUFKIT BUFR soundings in the GFS and NAM do show winds approaching 45 mph. In addition, the NBM 50th percentile max wind gust forecast is picking up on wind gusts around 45 mph over the higher terrain and other locations east of the Cascades. We'll give it one or two more model runs before going with a wind advisory, but winds will be on the up tick Sunday near Summer Lake.

Finally, this AR will focus more on the Sierras in California early next week before an upper level low likely ejects eastwards. This could bring a decent snow event to Modoc County. A small set of ensemble members(~20%) bring a quick few inches, although a majority keep things dry, or just too warm for snow accumulating down to the valley floors there.

Next week looks a little boring, although the models are still progressive with high pressure struggling to gain control. It will be cooler and unstable with showers staying in our forecast. There seems to be small PoPs in our forecast every day except Thursday. Next weekend around day 8-9 will be something to watch as some ensemble members(~10%) are showing significant snow down to the valley floors west of the Cascades. While others are simply showing lower snow levels on the mid slopes. The NBM is forecasting snow levels down to 2700 feet next weekend, so colder air is likely on the way!

AVIATION...07/06Z TAFs

MVFR levels are expected at North Bend tonight as a cold front approaches. Fog may develop in the Umpqua Valley early Saturday morning, but the front will help to clear out any surface development. Some inland areas may also see MVFR ceilings and rainfall may bring locally lower ceilings and visibilities as well as obscure elevated terrain. Rainfall looks to move eastward into future TAF periods. Showers look to start pushing east of the Cascades towards the end of the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Friday, February 6, 2026

Steep west swell will persist today, then south winds increase through tonight with the approach and arrival of a cold front. This front will linger late Saturday into Sunday, continuing to produce gusty south winds, steep to very steep seas, and low visibility conditions in rain. Elevated seas are likely to linger early next week, with improving conditions following on Tuesday or Wednesday.

BEACH HAZARDS

An incoming west to southwest long period swell will produce a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast through this evening, with the highest risk early this morning, and secondarily with the incoming high tide this afternoon. The next high tide will occur roughly around 2 to 3 PM PST. The threat, while moderate, should be emphasized due to the pleasant and warmer than normal weather.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther up beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ021- 022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.