textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will break to the east of the area today and this will open the door for an offshore Pacific front to approach the coast this morning and then move onshore this afternoon through tonight.

Southerly winds will increase in advance of the front today, especially over the marine waters, along the coast and in portions of the Shasta Valley, but also portions of the Rogue Valley and the East Side. Gale warnings are up over the waters (see marine discussion below). We don't think wind gusts will quite get to warning levels (>=58 mph) along the coast, but coastal headlands could see peak gusts in the 45-55 mph range. Since the flow will briefly align with the Rogue Valley, we may see a brief period of breezy winds this afternoon even all the way to the airport. But, the strongest winds are likely across the south end closer to Ashland, where a wind advisory remains in place. South winds are already blowing at Weed in the Shasta Valley (35 mph at this early hour) and these should pick up through the day. Gusts to 50 mph are expected. East Side areas will get breezy too, but with gusts generally in the 30-40 mph range.

As the front moves onshore, the upper support becomes disorganized and much of the precipitation will fizzle as it heads into the Great Basin. Rain amounts along the coast will range mostly from 0.25-0.50 of an inch with locally an inch or so in the Curry Coast ranges. Aside from the Illinois Valley, the SE winds will likely be a limiting factor in west side valley precip amounts. Most places end up with less than 0.10 of an inch. Some of the hi-res guidance even shows precip completely skipping over Medford. Precip probabilities here remain in the 60-70% range with the best chance between about 4 pm and 8 or 9 pm. Models have beefed up QPF at least a little bit for East Side areas west of Highways 31 and 395 this evening. This could result in a rain/snow mix at Klamath Falls for a couple of hours with better chances to the north (Highway 97) and south (Medicine Lake area). We're not expecting advisory snow, but there could be some tricky slick spots on roads north of Chiloquin tonight, so be aware of that potential. Snow levels of 4500-5000 ft could bring an inch or two to the Cascades/Siskiyous, but probably not quite down as low as I-5 at Siskiyou Summit.

Beyond Tuesday...the pattern remains active, but there's some uncertainty on how far south the storm track is for the next front late Wednesday into Thursday. The pattern favors the highest precipitation chances for northern and western areas and would be least favorable for areas east of the Cascades and south of the OR/CA border least favored. This trend only sharpens by the end of the week as the storm track gets directed farther north into Portland/Seattle and an upper level ridge amplifies near and east of the Cascades into Idaho Thursday afternoon and night. Shortwaves continue to move into the ridge over the weekend, bringing glancing blows of precipitation chances along the coast during this time. So while the pattern remains relatively active, there still aren't any clear signals showing a solid return to wetter conditions or building snowpack in the region. In fact, longer range guidance shows the potential for stronger upper ridging to arrive after Sun/Mon of next week, which would bring another several day period of dry, mild weather during the 1st week of February.

AVIATION...27/12Z TAFs

VFR prevails across northern California and southern Oregon early this morning under high ceilings with light winds. We are not expecting much, if any, fog to form this morning.

A front will move in from the Pacific late this morning through this evening, bringing some rain and breezy to gusty southerly winds. Rainfall will be more prevalent west of the Cascades, but scattered light rain showers may develop to the east during the evening. Snow levels of 4500-5000 feet will keep light snowfall limited to higher terrain. Rain from this front may locally lower ceilings and visibility to MVFR, especially this evening, as well as obscure elevated terrain. The Shasta Valley may see gusts up to 45 mph, with 25-40 mph gusts possible east of the Cascades. Low level wind shear is expected late this morning into the afternoon along the coast and over terrain, but this hazard should lessen as the front moves inland tonight. There's only about a 30-40% chance of precip tonight at Klamath Falls, but if it does occur, it could be a mix of rain/snow.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Tuesday, January 27, 2026

A frontal system will move into the waters today with gale force south winds and very steep, hazardous seas peaking at 10-16 ft at 9 seconds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening with localized wind gusts to 50 kt.

Conditions reach a peak this evening. But, any improvement will be short-lived tonight into Wednesday ahead of a building long period west swell Wednesday night into Thursday. This long period west swell is expected to peak at around 13 to 17 ft at 15 seconds.

South winds are likely to remain near or above advisory strength Wednesday into Friday, with seas remaining steep. The outlook for the weekend is for south winds to diminish with seas becoming dominated by another steep, building west swell.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this evening for ORZ026.

CA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-356.

Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for PZZ370-376.

Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ370-376.