textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)

Key Points:

* High pressure aloft will be common the next several days - Leading to widespread dry precipitation-free conditions - Morning fog/freezing fog possible for mainly westside valleys - Air stagnation advisories in place through Wednesday

* The pattern does briefly break down Thurs-Sat - A pacific trough will bring a change in the upper levels - May see some relief in the stagnant air pattern - Small chance for precipitation along/near the coast

Further Details:

High pressure continues to dominate the weather locally while a long wave trough consumes much of the CONUS. The biggest impact in the short/near term will be fog and freezing fog the next couple mornings along with a stable airmass. The latter of which has resulted in continued air stagnation advisories through Wednesday. Air stagnation can also bring poor air quality as pollutants get trapped under stable air.

A potential change in the upper levels may come on Thursday in the wake of a Pacific trough which will pass south of the forecast area later this week. The result will be northwesterly flow across the region Thursday through Saturday before high pressure builds back in Sunday. While the pattern does change, this will likely not lead to widepsread precipitation chances. In fact, ensemble data shows very little precipitation through the next 7 days. However, the NBM continues to hold onto precipitation chances along and near the coast through later parts of the week albeit low chances and very little QPF. This may be tied to climatology, and it should not be a surprise to see these chances dwindle as more data comes in. The reality is we are lacking variables needed for widespread precipitation chances through later parts of this month.

Looking ahead, the next reasonable chance for widespread precipitation may not come until the end of the month to early February. Even then, its not a slam dunk but something to look forward to as this month has been mostly dry. The trend has been for precipitation chances in the extended to be reduced once it comes into the near/mid term periods. In other words, not getting too excited until this trend breaks.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected for all the terminals expected for KLMT which should remain in VFR throughout this cycle. Other terminals (KOTH, KRBG, & KMFR) will deal with both low ceilings and reduced visibilities as high pressure continues to dominate the region. Some relief is expected this afternoon before conditions deteriorate once again overnight. Overall, light and variable wind speeds expected through this period as well.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Below advisory seas remain in the forecast for area waters through Wednesday. Winds turn dominate from the north on Wednesday, and speeds will increase Wednesday night through Thursday. This period may result in gusty winds building steep seas for waters south of Coos Bay starting Thursday morning, with areas of steep seas potentially lasting through Saturday morning.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 300 AM PST Tuesday, January 20, 2026

A low amplitude (3-6 ft), but long period (18-20 seconds) swell is expected to move into the coastal waters through this afternoon. This will increase the risk of sneaker waves on area beaches, especially on the incoming tide later this morning/early afternoon.

If you plan to visit area beaches, please be aware of the dangers sneaker waves pose to beach goers. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches. NEVER turn your back on the ocean!

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021- 022.

Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ023-024- 026-029>031.

Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ023.

Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ024.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.