textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

A warm front will bring light to occasionally moderate rain to the north coast, Douglas County and northern Cascades late this morning. The rain will gradually spread to the south coast, coastal mountains and Cascades (south of highway 140) this afternoon into tonight. With a strong westerly flow aloft, rainfall is expected to be mainly along and west of the Cascades with dry weather likely mostly hours and locations east of the Cascades, but it will be windy in the afternoon with the strongest winds over the ridges. However winds should remain below advisory criteria.

Precipitation will gradually diminish from south to north and ending during the day Monday as the frontal boundary shifts north of the forecast area.

The general consensus Tuesday and Wednesday keeps the bulk of the rainfall north of the forecast area. However moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation is expected in northern Douglas and Coos County. These areas could see 1-4 inches of rainfall.

The one grey area could be Tuesday with some of the operational models and individual ensemble members suggesting the frontal boundary could slip far enough south to bring moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation for a brief period of time to the area Tuesday before the core of heavier precipitation lifts back north as an upper ridge builds over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

ECMWF and GEFS members keep the main moisture axis to the north. The 0Z deterministic GFS and NAM show a strong 700MB jet of 65-70kt, which could bring wind headlines north of Highway 140. We have increased wind speeds over the east side, but will adjust as new data become available.

There's good agreement upper ridging will build over the area the latter part of the week and lasting into the start of next weekend with the storm track likely to remain north of the area. Therefore, it's more than likely we'll be dry with mild temperatures in the afternoon. -Petrucelli

AVIATION...07/12z TAFs

Mid and high clouds over the area with areas of IFR/LIFR conditions in low clouds in valleys west of the Southern Oregon Cascades, including Medford and Grants Pass areas through 18z. In the Umpqua valley, VFR ceilings are likely to continue through 18z, then ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR late this morning through this afternoon and could lower further to IFR late this evening and tonight with reduction in visibility.

Along the coast and just offshore, a mix MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with rain moving in.

East of the Cascades, VFR are expected to be the predominate condition through the TAF period, although the higher terrain could be partly obscured after 21z.

Moderate to strong winds aloft today will result in mountain wave turbulence along and east of the Cascades with stronger winds near and at the ridges.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, December 7, 2025

South winds increase through the day today as another wet front approaches the region. Gusty winds and steep seas north of Cape Blanco will spread to all of the southern Oregon waters Monday, with Gales and/or very steep seas possible north of Cape Arago. Conditions remain unsettled through the first part of next week, with several fronts bringing periods of gusty south winds and a likelihood of high and steep seas. -BPN/Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for PZZ350- 370.