textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* An approaching low pressure system will bring light rain showers to many areas this afternoon and evening, as well as cooler temperatures west of the Cascades. Thunderstorm chances are highest (15-20%) for Coos, Curry, and Douglas counties.

* Gusty winds are expected in the Scott and Shasta Valleys as well as across the east side. Other areas may see periodic wind gusts.

* Activity eases on Sunday, with cool temperatures reaching the east side.

* Warm and dry conditions are in the forecast for the week ahead.

DISCUSSION

The first showers from an approaching low pressure system are approaching the Oregon coast early this morning. This system will bring cool temperatures to west side areas and light rain showers. Daytime highs are forecast to drop between 10 and 15 degrees for west side valleys, while the east side looks to see similar seasonal warmth continue today. Coastal terrain and the Cascades north of Crater Lake have the best chances for evening showers (70-90%), but forecast amounts of 0.25 to 0.33 inches will be unimpactful. Lower elevation areas in Douglas, Josephine, Klamath, and Lake counties may get a few hundreths of an inch this evening. The eastern Rogue Valley as well as most of Siskiyou and Modoc counties may stay dry through the day. Slight thunderstorm chances (15-20%) remain in the forecast over Coos, Curry, and Douglas counties, which may bring locally moderate to heavy rainfall as well as lightning strikes and erratic winds.

The low's approach will also bring gusty winds into the Shasta and Scott valleys as well as most east side areas. Wind gusts in these areas will mostly be in the 25-35 mph range, with gusts approaching 40 mph possible over terrain in Lake and Modoc counties. Increasing humidity will prevent critical fire weather conditions, but these gusty winds moving over areas of potentially dry fuels is enough to emphasize fire weather concerns.

Winds ease into early Sunday morning, while showers may continue over terrain into the afternoon. Cooler temperatures will reach the east side while continuing over the west side. Depending on how cloud cover behaves into Sunday night and early Monday morning, areas of frost and freezing conditions may be present for parts of the east side.

Northwest flow to start the week with the possibility of a Pacific ridge nudging into the area towards midweek indicates a return to warm and dry conditions. A shortwave trough may swing over the area on Wednesday, but atmospheric moisture looks to be insufficient to support any activity. Daytime highs for the end of the week may reach 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most areas but so far triple digit temperatures are not a part of the forecast. -TAD

AVIATION...12/12Z TAFs

VFR levels continue for northern California and southern Oregon, but ceilings have developed over North Bend and Roseburg as an active weather system approaches the area. Ceilings look to generally stay at VFR heights, but periods of MVFR ceilings are possible as rain showers develop this afternoon and evening. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible, with the highest chances (15-20%) over Coos, Curry, and Douglas counties. Additionally, periods of gusty winds are expected, especially east of the Cascades.

Rain showers and winds ease tonight into early Sunday morning, although light showers may continue over area terrain into later Sunday morning. -TAD

MARINE

Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, September 12, 2026...Normal westerly winds and below advisory seas continue early this morning. Winds shift to the south near the afternoon ahead of a cold front that will pass onshore tonight. Steep seas are possible Sunday night into mid- week, especially south of Cape Blanco, as the thermal trough redevelops.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.