textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

High clouds are currently moving into southern Oregon and northern California this afternoon ahead of a warm front and the next incoming system. Temperatures will trend about 7 degrees warmer tonight due to the widespread and thicker nature of the cloud cover. Eventually, that front will arrive on shore Monday morning, although not a lot of precipitation will fall along the frontal boundary. Most of the rain will arrive with the surface low hitting the coast around mid day Monday. Strong warm air advection and plenty of moisture will bring light rain to most locations through Monday, except Modoc County during the day.

Total rain accumulation will vary widely like usual with around 1.5 inches through Tuesday near the Brookings area and 0.5 inches along other portions of the coast and higher terrain in the Cascades. We're expecting around 0.1 inches here in Medford through Tuesday. Rain like this isn't that atypical for early June, and we won't be setting precipitation records for our climate sites on Monday.

Eventually, a cold front will follow this low eastwards and push through the coast by Monday night. The GFS BUFKIT forecast soundings look fairly interesting with some convective available potential energy(CAPE) Monday night into Tuesday morning over KRBG, although the CAPE is very shallow due to some relatively warmer air and stable air aloft. So any showers that do form will be light and quite shallow on Tuesday.

The cooler and drier air will settle in briefly by Tuesday evening with the GFS placing a 1023 mb MSLP high in south western Oregon. A thermal trough still looks like it will from along the south western portion of our coast, basically around Brookings, although it doesn't have much northward extent into Thursday and Friday as we've seen the last few days. End result will be some warming temperatures on Thursday and Friday with high temperatures right around climatological normals.

The last thing that caught our eye in the forecast is both the GFS and ECMWF are showing an upper level wave sliding down the Cascades Saturday or Sunday with some east winds around 10 to 15 knots over our Cascades. After doing some spaghetti and cluster analysis on the 500mb heights, we think this scenario has a 30% chance of happening. Other solutions show a stronger ridge in place, which will still push temperatures higher for locations west of the Cascades. Overall, the take home impacts will be increasing heat and fire weather threats next weekend.

-Smith

AVIATION...08/06Z TAFS

Tonight, increasing mid and high level clouds are expected ahead of a cold front. The front will bring rain, breezy southerly winds, and a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions to the coast beginning around 12Z Monday morning. Rain will spread inland to the Cascades during the morning with areas of MVFR, local IFR, and mountain obscurations. Guidance supports ceilings lowering to MVFR with periods of reduced visibilities starting around 18z at Roseburg. For Medford, there is 25-30% chance of MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities from 19-00z Monday. East of the Cascades, areas of light rain are expected with local MVFR conditions in the afternoon. Lighter showers will linger behind the front Monday night, with areas of MVFR ceilings and local IFR continuing west of the Cascades.

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, June 7, 2026

The first changes was to issue a Small Craft Advisory for today from Port Orford southward and out to 30 nm from shore with steep seas expected due to near Advisory strength northwest winds.

Wind ease and turn southerly tonight with sub-advisory conditions expected. The improvement will be brief with a cold front bringing gusty, stronger southerly winds and rain on Monday into Monday night. Steep seas are expected for all of the southern Oregon waters from Monday morning through Tuesday morning, except for very steep seas and south winds approaching gale force north of Cape Blanco during Monday afternoon and evening. Steep seas may linger in the outer waters during Tuesday afternoon.

Improved conditions are expected later Tuesday into Wednesday morning with seas dominated by a west-northwest swell at 10 seconds. A thermal trough pattern is likely for the latter half of the week through next weekend. Expect the return of gusty north winds with steep to very steep seas from Thursday onward.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350- 370.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.