textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)

Key Points:

* Light Snowfall Tuesday into Wednesday - Not expecting any hazards given the elevation of snowfall - Mainly Trinity Alps and Mount Shasta area

* Rain: Moderate to heavy rainfall this weekend - Rainfall greatest along/near the coast, especially Curry CO. - Not expecting widespread flooding but roads could be hazardous

* Snow: Moderate to heavy snowfall this weekend - Potential widespread hazards for mountains/passes - Snow levels dropping to around 2000-2500 Saturday night - Could see impacts to lower passes and some westside areas

* Wind: Strong winds this weekend - Wind advisories likely for northern California and eastside

Further Details:

The pattern aloft is chaotic with many shortwaves over the Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. However, it can be summed up as a broad area of cyclonic flow over the Gulf of Alaska resulting in generally west to southwest flow over the forecast area. A low is progged to emerge from the base of the broader flow over the Gulf of Alaska today, and will enter California tomorrow. Deterministic models bring the low in from the south to southwest and over the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This flow and pattern will bring light snowfall amounts to elevations mainly above 5000 feet. As supported by ensembles, not expecting any hazards as snowfall accumulations will be confined to higher mainly uninhabited areas. For rainfall, we will see amounts highest across northern California under this pattern Tuesday into Wednesday, but widespread hazards are not expected through Wednesday. Thereafter, a brief break will begin Thursday into parts of Friday.

A stronger and deeper trough looks to develop and impact the region starting Friday. Snow levels could potentially drop as low as 2000 to 2500 feet by Saturday night. This weekend in general could see widespread hazardous conditions across the area with moderate to heavy snowfall, moderate to heavy rainfall, and strong wind speeds. The finer details will become clearer over the coming days. That said, this system could bring advisories and/or warnings across the area with a much colder airmass in place. Snowfall could impact some lower passes such as Highway 140 near Lake of the Woods and potentially Siskiyou Summit on I-5. Additionally, Mount Ashland could see snow amounts they haven't seen much of this winter. This would be in addition to the Cascades and Siskiyous as well as mountains across northern California. Again, too early to say with much confidence the exact details, but we are considering a scenario with more widespread hazardous weather this weekend.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities remain in many area valleys across northern California and southern Oregon this morning, while coastal areas and open inland areas are generally seeing VFR levels. Guidance suggests valley ceilings will clear out this afternoon. A low pressure system passing to the south may supply mid- to high-level clouds this afternoon and through the rest of the TAF period. While fog or low ceilings may return to some valleys tonight into early Tuesday morning, that possibility would be affected by the timing of any clearing today as well as the presence of clouds around the low.

Other than the presence or absence of valley fog, this TAF period is largely uneventful. Northern California counties and the Cascades may see some light showers as the low approaches on Tuesday morning, with activity expected to continue into future periods.

-TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Monday, February 9, 2026

Westerly swell continues to build steep seas in all area waters today. Swell decreases this afternoon but gusty northerly winds develop, supporting mixed steep seas through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday. Areas of very steep and hazardous seas are possible in outer waters while these winds persist. Conditions improve for inner waters into the end of the week as north winds ease and seas lower. Northwest swell will bring elevated seas Thursday night into the weekend.

-TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.