textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler this weekend and into Monday.

* Shower chances remain low with the best chance today over the coastal waters and tonight in northern California and near/ east of the Warner mountains.

* Frost and freezing conditions in the west side valleys tonight and again Sunday night.

* Temperatures trend warmer Tuesday through Friday as high pressure builds.

DISCUSSION

A mostly dry cold front moved through the area yesterday and last night and it continues to make its way south and east of the area. It was "mostly dry", except some locations in the Umpqua Basin and in Coos County picked up a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain (only a trace at Roseburg airport). Silver Butte RAWS must have been in the perfect area, coming in with 0.44".

For today, this will result in much cooler conditions area wide with high temperatures about 10-20 degrees F lower than yesterday. This means highs in the 50s to low 60s over the East Side and largely 60-70F west of the Cascades. Clouds are currently banked up against the Cascades and Siskiyous, and some are spilling over to portions of the East Side this morning. While the clouds will fill in more over SE portions of the CWA this morning, drier air will move in aloft and expect the clouds over us (Rogue Valley) and near the mountains to erode. Satellite imagery is showing some cellular low-topped clouds over the ocean and to the north near Florence/Newport. While most areas likely remain dry, it's conceivable there's an isolated shower or two along the coast or over the coastal waters today. The front will stall in SE Oregon and NE California this afternoon/evening as a deep upper trough drops through eastern Washington into NE Oregon. Again, most locations remain dry, but we can't rule out isolated showers from around the Mt. Shasta region over to around the Warner mountains during this time period.

Subsidence on the back side of the upper trough should lead to clearing over most western valleys tonight with good radiational cooling. Many areas will drop into the low to mid 30s with frost/freezing conditions, so frost/freeze headlines are up. It's getting late in the season, so harvest what you can if you still have the backyard garden going.

On Sunday, the trough will elongate and stretch from NE California up into northern Idaho. Most of our forecast area will remain on the west side of the trough, and thus, the dry side. We still can't rule out an isolated shower or two over far SE sections, but that's about it. Breezy N-NE winds develop, especially in the afternoon/evening with peak gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Winds die off Sunday evening and good radiational cooling is expected again Sunday night. With lower dew points and a drier air mass, temperatures will probably be a touch lower than tonight. As such, we've issued a Freeze Watch for the western valleys of NorCal as well as Jackson/Josephine counties. Probability of low temps 32F or lower in these areas is generally 50-80%. Frost is also possible in portions of the Umpqua Basin (probability of minimum temperature <36F from Roseburg to Sutherlin is about 30-40%, while near Canyonville and Glendale, odds are higher, about 60-80% chance).

The upper trough/low just hangs out moving to around NW Nevada on Monday, then finally pivoting across Nevada Monday night and into Utah on Tuesday. The cool weather pattern will continue into Monday, but high pressure will build Tuesday through Friday and this will result in a decided warming trend. It won't be hot like last week, but with the ridge axis overhead by Thu/Fri, it'll be warm for mid-October with forecast high temperatures of 80-85F for west side valleys.

Models then show a fizzling front pushing toward the coast Saturday. Not much confidence this system will make much (if any) impact on area weather, though a slight cool down is possible next weekend. -Spilde

AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs

Early this morning, clouds are banked up against the Cascades/Siskiyous and extend eastward across northern Klamath and Lake counties. These clouds associated with a cold front will gradually shift south and eastward later this morning. Most ceilings are VFR, though local MVFR ceilings are possible with areas of higher terrain obscuration. The clouds should break up over the Cascades/Siskiyous later this morning as drier air works in aloft. Clouds will hold on though across SE sections as the front stalls in SE Oregon and NE California, including southern Lake/Modoc/southeast Siskiyou counties. Isolated showers could develop (15-25% chance) near the Warner mountains and even the Mt. Shasta region late this afternoon/evening.

Along the coast, VFR will prevail today, though colder air aloft could lead to an isolated shower or two. Best chance (15-20%) is over the coastal waters. Ceilings could briefly lower to MVFR in any shower. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Saturday, October 10, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas continue across the area through this weekend. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest south of Port Orford. Occasional gale force gusts (up to 40 kt) are possible just offshore of Brookings this afternoon/ evening and again south of Gold Beach on Sunday afternoon/evening. Seas could approach warning levels (10 feet south of Cape Arago and beyond 20 NM from shore on Sunday), but associated wave period should be 9-10 seconds. We'll maintain the small craft advisory for now. Winds and seas begin to subside Monday, but steep seas are likely to continue into Monday night. Further improvement is likely to follow. Guidance continues to depict the arrival of the first west-northwest long period swell of the season this weekend. While the high energy swell is not expected to exceed 6 feet, the arriving swell of 1 foot at 27 seconds today will build to a peak at around 6 feet at 20 to 22 seconds later Sunday. This could produce dangerous bar conditions, heavier than normal surf, and abnormal currents. Swell will then very slowly diminish Monday into Tuesday, continuing at 4 to 6 ft while period lowers to 14 seconds. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 230 AM PDT Saturday, October 10, 2026

The first long period swell of the season arrives today. The west- northwest swell (around 1-2 feet) will move into the southern Oregon waters this afternoon/evening with a period over 25 seconds. Swell will then build through Sunday, peaking Sunday afternoon and evening at around 5 to 6 feet at 19 seconds. This very long period swell will result in a heightened risk for sneaker waves and wave run-ups of unusual size through Monday evening.

While the threat for sneaker waves will be persistent throughout Sunday and Monday, the highest risk is expected during periods of incoming tides. High tides along the southern Oregon coast are expected roughly around noon to 1 PM PDT, and again around Midnight to 1 AM PDT.

If visiting the coast Sunday or Monday, stay vigilant for incoming waves. Stay far away from the surf zone and never turn your back to the ocean. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ORZ024-026.

Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Monday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ024-026.

CA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ080>082.

Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.