textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

AVIATION...14/18Z TAFs

VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals. East to southeast winds increase over the mountains, especially the Cascades/Siskiyous, late tonight and during Thursday morning. These winds, just a couple of thousand feet AGL, will be approximately 25-30 kt from the ESE. This will bring an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport around and after 12Z, lasting until about 17Z due to a strong inversion, which should prevent those winds from reaching the surface. It could get breezy in Ashland, however. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 337 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures trend higher through the week and peak around Thursday and Friday.

* A dry cold front will move into Oregon by Saturday afternoon.

* There is modest chance(30-40%) of rain around Monday and Tuesday as the next system moves in.

DISCUSSION...

Not a lot going on this morning as some high clouds traverse the forecast area. Temperatures are just a tad bit warmer compared to 24 hours ago, therefore we should avoid the widespread frost and freeze west of the Cascades. There could be a few pockets of frost in Scott Valley this morning as lows push into the mid 30's there.

Otherwise, we'll continue this trend warmer as 500mb heights rise across the west. We could also see some light easterly flow over the higher terrain tonight as the upper level low continues to move eastwards. These east winds will keep the air rather dry and help with some adiabatic heating west of the Cascades. A thermal trough will develop by Thursday afternoon pushing many areas well into the 80's, even coastal locations. 500 mb heights are unusually strong for mid October and in the 97.5 to 99th percentile Thursday into Friday.

Another interesting thing here is the surface pressure gradients are different compared to what we usually see in late summer. There is a strong surface low in the gulf of Alaska, so our typical strong north winds along the coast will be non existent Thursday and again Friday.

Deeper west to northwest flow will set up by Friday afternoon ahead of the next system with some cooler temperatures moving into coastal areas. By Saturday, it looks like a dry cold front will push into Oregon during the day and stall out west of the Cascades with mostly cloudy skies west of the Cascades and clear conditions farther east. None the less, Temperatures will still trend downwards by 10 degrees as the 500mb ridge flattens out.

Finally, next week still has some precipitation in the forecast. Our latest PoP forecast Monday evening is 40%, which seems to be a trend downwards compared to what we had the last few nights. Looking at the latest ECMWF ensemble data, it looks like that might even be too high as a lot more members are staying dry Monday into Tuesday. Looking at the deterministic ECMWF, it looks like the upper low is diving south down the California coast while we get some cooler and drier air moving in, so that seems to be what many of the drier members are going with. In any case, it will be more fall like weather with cooler air moving in from the north.

AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs...VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals.

MARINE...

Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will continue for areas south of Cape Blanco through today. Conditions improve by Thursday as winds weaken. A new swell will arrive around Saturday and push waves slightly higher by the weekend. Conditions might be hazardous to smaller crafts by Saturday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.