textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Smoke from the Castle fire and multiple complexes in Central Oregon will continue to impact Lake, Klamath, and eastern Douglas Counties. * Very low chance of thunderstorms in northern Lake and Klamath Counties today and Thursday.

* Temperatures trend warmer Friday.

* A dry cold front will move through Saturday as temperatures lower into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Quiet weather continues today. Smoke and lower air quality will be the main weather feature over the next few days. Broader west to northwest surface flow will keep pushing smoke from the Castle Fire in eastern Douglas County into Lake and Klamath Counties. Also, the smoke from the complexes in Central Oregon will continue to settle east of the Cascades overnight and the next few nights.

A short wave embedded in the southwest upper level flow will swing through southern Oregon today, and again Thursday. Deterministic models are not showing any convection, although the NBM 12 hour thunderstorm probability has hints of thunderstorm activity in northern Lake and Klamath Counties and points north and west. A few ensemble members are also showing light precipitation in central Oregon Wednesday afternoon. However, with PWATs of 0.50 to 0.75 inches, the atmosphere is likely way too dry to allow for any convective development beyond cumulus fields. So while the ensemble probabilities for thunderstorms are around 5-10%, it is far more likely that nothing will develop. However, with hot, dry, and unstable conditions in and near many of the area wildfires, we can't rule out some pyrocumulus or even isolated pyrocumulonimbus development to develop within any smoke plumes. While the vast majority of these fires are out of our forecast area, should these occur, the increase in smoke production could result in more smoke settling in across the East Side tonight.

Friday looks like a rather quiet day as temperatures trend about 5 degrees warmer and hit the upper 90's here in Medford. Heat risk is still low to moderate, likely because it's the hottest time of year and the brief nature of the heat. Therefore, heat headlines are not expected.

Saturday will be a bigger change for our area as the upper wave in the Pacific finally shoots east and a cold front follows in the lows' wake. The cold front will be dry and likely move through mid day Saturday. High temperatures will take a notable dip into the 80's in our valleys west of the Cascades. Usually these cold fronts bring some breezy winds as they pass through. Wind gusts will trend higher and hit 30 mph along the coast and over larger areas east of the Cascades on Saturday afternoon.

We'll see these cooler temperatures stay around by Sunday before a thermal trough and some easterly breezes set up across the forecast area on Monday. High temperatures will shoot up again into the upper 90's for locations west of the Cascades. A strong ridge will likely build over California the start of next week. Highs should stay in the upper 90's or perhaps 100. If the ridge ends up farther north, which is a realistic solution, then we'll be well into the mid 100's here in Medford.

AVIATION...29/18Z TAFs

Marine stratus remains along the Oregon coast, bringing MVFR levels to North Bend and Roseburg and IFR levels to Brookings. Satellite imagery is showing some clearing along the edges of this layer, which will result in VFR levels across northern California and southern Oregon as ceilings clear over those areas. Marine stratus looks to return this evening, with MVFR to IFR levels expected along the coast possible through the end of the TAF period.

Inland areas look to remain at VFR levels with clear skies and normal diurnal breezes for most of the TAF period, with high ceilings possible west of the Cascades on Thursday morning. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Wednesday, July 29, 2026

North winds will gradually increase today, reaching advisory criteria south of Port Orford and beyond 10 nm from shore. This will bring borderline steep seas Wednesday, primarily from Gold Beach southward. Winds ease on Thursday with improved conditions expected through early Saturday.

On Saturday, a low pressure system passing to the north may bring very strong northerly winds over area waters as it tightens the gradient and enhances the thermal trough. Although the timing and strength of these winds are uncertain, the latest models are showing a high likelihood of gales and very steep seas, and nearly a 40 percent chance of storm force gusts by early next week. -TAD/BPN

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Overall, the rest of the week will see generally normal summer weather but with some conditions worth addressing. Very slight chances (About 5%) remain for afternoon/evening dry thunderstorms today and Thursday. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures about 5 degrees above normal before cooling over the weekend.

A dry cold front is bringing elevated fire weather concerns for Saturday, as this front looks to bring strengthened northwest winds across the area. The highest winds will likely be along coastal headlands and across the East Side, but the Shasta and eastern Rogue (From Shady Cove to Gold Hill to Ashland) may see gusty winds funnel through. Details are coarse at this point, but currently winds stay short of critical speeds and RHs see a slight increase. This period will be watched closely as the details resolve. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ376.