textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions (strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity) this afternoon/evening east of Cascades in Oregon and in portions of northern California. Strong winds could also result in areas of blowing dust.

* Rain arrives at the coast 11a-2p today, spreading inland this afternoon/evening. Thunder probability is low, but can't rule one out here or there, especially near the coast.

* Breezy and much cooler area wide Tuesday (10-20F lower west side and 20-25F lower east side); showers and isolated thunderstorms.

* Wrap-around moisture will keep a high chance (50-80%) of showers from Cascades eastward Wed-Fri along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Shower chances are lower west of Cascades (10-40%). * Next trough possible this weekend.

DISCUSSION

A strong upper trough centered just off the coast of British Columbia is poised to bring a significant change to the weather pattern across the entire Pacific Northwest today into Tuesday. Satellite imagery is showing an associated cold front offshore at this time with some high clouds advancing onshore ahead of it (except low stratus has already filled in at the coast). Most areas across SW Oregon and northern California will have one more dry day, but not without some weather impacts.

The cooling trend begins today for most west side areas (about 5-10F lower than yesterday -- perhaps even 10-15F for areas just inland from the coast where cloud cover thickens sooner). East side areas will remain warm, perhaps just a few degrees change from yesterday. The main weather impact today will be the wind. Increasing pressure gradients and a well-mixed lower atmosphere will result in strong, gusty winds for much of the area this afternoon/evening. In NorCal and east side areas in Oregon, S-SW winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph will develop around or after 1 pm this afternoon, eventually shifting to W then NW tonight. A wind advisory was issued for Lake County, where wind gusts to 45 mph are most likely. The combination of the strong winds and low relative humidity (<20%) will also lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions for those areas (see Fire Weather Discussion for details on the Red Flag Warning). Winds this strong after an extended dry period could also lead to areas of blowing dust, especially off drier lake beds (Summer Lake), so be aware of the potential for reduced visibility, especially if driving along Highway 31 this afternoon/evening. West side valley locations (including here in Medford/surrounding areas) will also see gusty W_NW winds at times this afternoon (15-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph).

The cold front will arrive at the coast right around lunchtime (11a-2p) with rain spreading inland this afternoon. As many fronts often do this time of year, this one will weaken as it moves onshore. So, while shower chances are elevated area wide, it doesn't necessarily mean everyone will get rain. In fact, some areas could get completely skipped over (portions of Klamath Basin, Shasta/Scott valleys and even perhaps here in the Rogue Valley). Hopefully, some of these areas will get lucky and get some rain to lower the very high pollen counts out there. I, for one, would be very happy about lowering the "itchy, watery eye" index. Does this index exist? If it doesn't, it should. Coastal areas are favored for wetting rainfall today (0.20-0.50").

The closed low and upper trough will move directly overhead tonight into Tuesday and this will lead to a 10-25F drop in temps, with the most cooling felt over the east side. The cold pool aloft will lead to an unstable atmosphere, so expect more showers and also a chance of thunderstorms. The low will settle to the south and east of the area Wed/Thu, but wrap-around moisture, instability and multiple short waves rotating around the low will keep shower chances high from the Cascades eastward. This could result in periods of wetting rainfall over there, which should significantly lower fire danger in the days ahead. Upper ridging offshore will keep areas farther west comparatively drier (or at least with lower chances for precip). It looks like things should dry out Friday afternoon (still chance of showers far east side). But, then, models are showing the potential for another trough to swing through this weekend. Of course, this means any warm-up would be muted and there's still a chance of showers, but just exactly where and when chances are highest is still a but uncertain. -Spilde

AVIATION...25/06Z TAFS

LIFR/IFR will be widespread along the coast this morning. Coastal ceilings will lift to MVFR, southerly winds will increase, and rain will develop as a cold front moves in later this morning. These conditions will then persist through this afternoon and tonight.

Elsewhere, expect continued VFR through this afternoon. Gusty west to southwest winds will affect all areas this afternoon, with strong winds (gusts 30 to 40 kt) east of the Cascades. As rain spreads into the area this afternoon and evening, expect mountain obscurations and local MVFR ceilings.

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Monday, May 25, 2026

A cold front will move through the waters this morning bringing rain and increasing seas. Seas will become steep again this afternoon, with the strongest south winds expected to occur north of Cape Blanco. Steep, northwest swell builds in behind the front this afternoon and tonight, reaching a peak on Tuesday morning. These west-northwest swell dominated seas are expected to peak at around 13 to 17 ft at 14 seconds. Diminishing seas are expected to remain steep later Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

After brief, slight improvement, high pressure offshore and lingering low pressure inland are likely to bring increasing north winds on Wednesday afternoon with the strongest winds likely to occur south of Gold Beach. The gusty north winds and a long period west-northwest swell are likely to bring a return of steep seas Wednesday night into Thursday while a long period west-northwest swell builds. -Spilde

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 AM PDT Monday, May 25, 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather risk today into this evening due to a combination of strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity.

A cold front will move onshore today. Strong, gusty S-SW winds (20-30 mph) will develop in advance of the front this afternoon/evening east of the Cascades and in portions of northern California, where gusts of 35-40 mph will be common, even up to 45 mph in some areas of Lake/Modoc counties. Afternoon humidity in these areas could drop to 10-20% for at least a few hours and fuels there are dry enough that if ignitions were to occur, fire would be able to spread rapidly. As such, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1-11 pm PDT for southeastern Modoc County in California and from 1-8 pm PDT for most of Lake County in Oregon. Fire conditions are also elevated in areas where it turns breezy/windy this afternoon, but fuel receptiveness is still on the moderate side and humidity levels are just a bit high to warrant additional fire weather headlines.

Models are showing a substantial increase in humidity and the potential for wetting rainfall, especially east of the Cascades for the rest of the week (Tue-Fri). As such, fire danger should lower significantly in the coming days. -Hermansen/Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ625.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ031.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.