textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Section

AVIATION...13/18Z TAFs

Low clouds are clearing the coast this morning. VFR conditions with high clouds will be mostly expected today with a small chance for cumulus build up east of the Cascades with a brief shower. Smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire is northward for now, but is expected to impact more of the Rogue Valley this afternoon before spreading eastward overnight. Typical diurnal breezes also expected through this period. Another layer of clouds could produce IFR/LIFR conditions again tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 437 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm seasonable temperatures and overall dry conditions are expected this week.

* Smoke impacts from the East Evans Creek fire could develop this afternoon and evening for the Rogue Valley and to some extend eastside areas.

* Thunderstorm chances increase today and continue through Wednesday for mainly eastside areas and northern California, but cannot rule out some very isolated activity across both eastern Jackson and Douglas counties. Main threats are lightning and strong outflow gusts with Tuesday having the highest chances.

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...

High pressure at 500mb remains to the east of the forecast area. We also have a 500mb trough over British Columbia which is placing southwesterly flow over the forecast area. Also of note is another area of low pressure on the southwestern extent of the main trough mentioned above. Ultimately, this pattern will lead to southwesterly flow aloft through at least Wednesday. Thereafter, the pattern starts to become out of phase as models differ in the handling of the cutoff low over British Columbia/PacNW, so there is uncertainty beyond Wednesday as models struggle with the cutoff low positioning.

For today, we continue to see the monsoonal moisture advecting into the PacNW. That said, jet stream placement, upper level dynamics, and instability are not as favorable today, and we may end up with most of the activity to the southeast and east of the forecast area. That said, cannot rule out a few isolated showers/thunderstorms for Modoc and Lake counties this afternoon/early evening.

On Tuesday, upper levels dynamics will be better as the upper trough edges closer to shore with a jet streak over the forecast area. CAPE is modest around a couple hundred J/kg to upwards near 500 J/kg in some cases. Any storm that forms will have the potential for strong outflow gusts around 45mph in addition to lightning. The lightning over dry fuels could become an issue, and we may need to consider Red Flag Warnings for this threat. Chances will be best over northern California and eastside areas, but cannot rule out a Rogue storm over both eastern Douglas and Jackson counties.

On Wednesday, we will see less CAPE and less overall moisture, so thunderstorm chances will decrease on Wednesday. However, cannot rule out an isolated storm or two through the afternoon and early evening hours.

Beyond middle of the week, the upper level pattern differs between models and this is leading to little overall confidence in the details. We could see high temperatures trend toward the triple digits by Friday and continue through the weekend for westside valleys. There doesn't appear to be any strong signal for precipitation later in the week.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Monday, July 13, 2026...Gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco will bring conditions hazardous to small craft through this morning for all waters. Then, steep seas will continue in areas south of Cape Blanco through this evening. Conditions improve later tonight into Tuesday morning, but areas of steep seas and borderline advisory winds return Tuesday afternoon and may persist through mid-week south of Cape Blanco. These thermal trough driven winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.