textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Showers are ongoing west of the Cascades as some surface stations are reporting 0.01 inches of rain in the last hour around Roseburg. Clouds have also been sticking around due to sufficient moisture and surface heating mainly west of the Cascades. As for tonight, colder temperatures are anticipated east of the Cascades with frost covering many locations with sub freezing temperatures in much of Klamath County and northern/western Lake County near Chiloquin, Sprague River, Bly, Dairy, Chemult, Crescent and Silver Lake. Klamath Falls and Lakeview have a 60% chance of seeing temperatures < 32F tonight. Temperatures in the lower to mid 30s are expected across eastern Siskiyou and Modoc counties.

Temperatures should be warmer west of the Cascades due to sporadic cloud cover and the lower elevations. Even so, overnight lows will be about 5 degrees lower than normal for early June.

The trough axis will eventually swing through Sunday morning with a really weak ridge briefly setting up. Temperatures will move slightly higher compared to this afternoon, although end up right around normal for early June.

A warm front will then approach the coast by Sunday night with some rain starting to fall along coastal areas. Meanwhile, ensemble members are starting to converge on that higher rain solution we talked about yesterday. The vast majority of 12Z ENS members show a surface low starting to spin up off the Oregon coast. Most of them push it a bit farther to our north near Astoria and Portland, yet a few bring the low farther south, which would lead to more rain than what is currently in the forecast. Overall, we're looking at a solid 0.25 inches of rain for most locations west of the Cascades with lower totals east of the Cascades and in northern California. Medford is of course a dry spot, yet we'll likely see some rain here too as PoPs are >90%. A wetting rain indeed for early June. Minimal impacts are anticipated with this rain.

Once this low moves through, some slightly cooler air will move in and keep the showers going for most of Tuesday. The rain will be notably lighter and the chances of thunderstorms are <5%. Not much instability appears to make it to -10C based on the forecast soundings, so basically no electrification of the cloud. Showers should also be very shallow and light based on small amounts of convective available potential energy(CAPE) in those forecast soundings. The chances for showers decrease to <10% on Wednesday as high pressure starts to build with the departing long wave trough.

We'll see a thermal trough starting to build along the Oregon coastline Wednesday night with some 10 to 15 knot easterly winds off the Cascades and well defined inverted 850 mb heights. Main impacts for us will be warming temperatures and drying conditions towards the end of the week. It looks like the odds of 100 degrees have decreased on the other hand. We now have a 25% chance to break into the 100's on Saturday as a thermal trough remains over our forecast area.

AVIATION...07/06Z TAFS

VFR conditions should prevail overnight except for local mountain obscurations along the Siskiyous and Southern Oregon Cascades. Areas of MVFR ceilings are expected to develop in the Umpqua basin late tonight and early Sunday morning, including at Roseburg. Local IFR/MVFR is also possible (15%/25% chance) at North Bend but confidence is low so have kept this out of the TAF for now and will continue to monitor.. Then, late Sunday morning through Sunday evening expect VFR areawide.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Saturday, June 6, 2026

Gusty north to northwest winds will persist today, strongest south of Gold Beach. Seas will generally be northwest swell dominated today. The exception will be south of Pistol River where borderline advisory level winds could result in an area of steep seas beyond 1 to 2 nm from shore through tonight. As such, have made some adjustments to the Small Craft Advisory...considering seas will be swell dominated north of Gold Beach, the Small Craft Advisory for the northern outer waters was canceled while the headline was expanded closer to shore south of Pistol River.

Wind ease overall on Sunday with sub-advisory conditions expected through the evening. Winds turn southerly late Sunday afternoon ahead of another cold front expected Sunday night into Monday. Gusty south winds are expected with this front, with high confidence in advisory level winds for all areas Monday morning. North of Cape Blanco, high end advisory level winds (gales?) are possible late Monday morning as a secondary surface low pressure moves onshore somewhere between Newport and Astoria. Steep seas are very likely, with very steep seas possible north Cape Blanco if winds are stronger.

Improved conditions are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence is increasing in the return of a thermal trough pattern for the latter half of next week that likely persists into the following weekend. Expect the return of gusty north winds with steep to very steep seas from Thursday onward.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ029>031.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ029>031.

CA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ082>085.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ084.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.