textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Key Points:

* Widespread precipitation-free conditions next several days - Morning fog/freezing fog possible for mainly westside valleys - Air stagnation advisories in place through Thursday

* A Pacific closed low enters the region today/tonight - Changes the pattern through mid/late week - High pressure builds back in Sunday

Further Details:

The big story continues to be fog and freezing fog the next several mornings along with a stable airmass. Air stagnation advisories continue through Thursday which can lead to poor air quality as pollutants get trapped under stable air.

A potential change in the upper levels may come today/tonight in the wake of a Pacific trough which will pass south of the forecast area before getting absorbed into the mean flow this weekend. The result will be northwesterly flow across the region Thursday through Saturday before high pressure builds back in Sunday. While the pattern does change, this will likely not lead to widepsread precipitation chances. While there may be increased mixing the next several days with this pattern change, the overall mixing heights remain low through the end of the week. In other words, don't expect too much airmass change through this stretch.

Looking ahead, the next reasonable chance for widespread precipitation may not come until middle of next week. The trend lately has been for dry conditions to prevail, even as precipitation chances come into the extended forecast...only to disappear once we get closer in time. A lot of this may be tied to climatology in the models for the extended forecast. January is shaping up to end on a dry note for many areas. That said, we are not in any record territory for driest month on record, but this trend could become notable for prescribed burn operations, especially areas with poor humidity recoveries overnight and above normal temperatures.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

Another day of low clouds and limited visibility is likely for KRBG as the airmass goes unchanged within the Umpqua basin. Off shore flow and high clouds should keep these conditions away from KOTH. These high clouds should also keep both KMFR and KLMT in VFR conditions through this cycle. While confidence is high for KMFR to remain in VFR this cycle, there is a 10-20 percent chance for MVFR conditions this morning and again tonight into Thursday morning.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Below advisory seas remain in the forecast for area waters through today. Winds turn dominate from the north today, and speeds will increase through Thursday. These strong northerly winds will generate some steep wind waves Thursday night south of Port Orford and beyond 10 nm from shore. Seas will be relatively lower farther inland and to the north. These steep wind waves are expected to reach 8-10 feet at about 6 to 8 seconds Thursday night. These seas will likely remain hazardous to smaller crafts through Saturday morning.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ023- 024-026-029>031.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ023.

Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ024.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Friday night for PZZ376.