textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

VFR conditions are expected to begin this TAF period, but low ceilings are expected to impact KOTH with LIFR/IFR conditions (80% chance), and possibly MVFR ceilings (40% chance) for KRBG. Some uncertainty exist for the Umpqua basin as clouds spill in from the coast but we are expecting conditions to deteriorate for the basin. In other words, less confidence for KRBG to be impacted by BKN/OVC low clouds compared to coastal areas. Farther inland, both KMFR and KLMT are expected to be VFR throughout the valid TAF period. Otherwise, overall light wind speeds expected through this cycle.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 642 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy winds and low humidities this morning over the ridges and very warm temperatures and very dry conditions this afternoon will bring elevated fire weather conditions today. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend.

* Dry, mild weather expected Sunday.

* A stronger low and front approach the coast Sunday night with modest rain chances Monday along the coast and offshore, but low chances for inland areas.

DISCUSSION...A high pressure ridge remains over the area today. This will bring continued very warm temperatures with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal across inland areas. Coastal areas will trend cooler compared to yesterday though with a light onshore/marine influence.

Of concern today will be elevated fire weather conditions due to to very warm, very dry conditions along with breezy to gusty winds (mainly ridges and east side). Very dry conditions along with breezy to gusty easterly winds are occuring over the ridges/upper slopes this morning. These winds will gradually diminish west of the Cascades late this morning and early this afternoon. East to southeast winds will linger into early this afternoon across the southern Oregon Cascades. Then, east of the Cascades, gusty southerly winds will develop this afternoon. Meanwhile, low afternoon humidities are expected across inland areas with single digit RHs possible, mainly for areas east of the Cascades and in Northern California.

These conditions today bring elevated fire weather risk, so please be careful to avoid any unnecessary sparks.

On Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will bring low clouds into northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures will trend near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere, will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is a potential for breezy winds (with gusts 15 to 25 mph) Saturday late afternoon/early evening. These winds are likely to be highest along the coast and for areas east of the Cascades.

Then, on Sunday, models continue to show dry and mild conditions with areas of morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades. There is a low chance (10-15%) for light rain in Coos and northwest Douglas County Saturday morning.

The forecast remains on track for Sunday night into early next week. A low pressure system with a cold front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs continue show the low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts southward off the coast on Monday. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances are around 25-50% for Monday/Monday night from the Cascades west, with highest chances along the coast. Lower rain chances (10-25%) exist east of the Cascades.

Tuesday into Wednesday, models continue to show the low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low.

AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the TAF period. The exception will be over the marine waters and localized along the coast where LIFR ceilings in marine stratus are possible this morning. Confidence is higher for the marine waters as offshore flow could keep this layer just offshore this morning. Then as offshore flow ease, expect areas of LIFR to develop Friday evening along the coast. Inland, with gusty southeast winds prevailing over the higher terrain this morning, low level wind shear will remain a concern for the Medford terminal, lasting until about 15-18Z as another strong inversion develops and prevents those winds from reaching the surface. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland, however.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Friday, October 16, 2026...Sub-advisory north winds and seas dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells will persist through at least Friday. North winds increase and a new swell arrives around Saturday, building seas higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. Then, Monday and Monday night, west swell builds into the area.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.