textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Note: Please see previous discussion below for further details.

Key Points:

* Snow: Widepsread Minor to Moderate Impacts Today-Thurs night - Moderate to heavy snowfall for mountains/passes - Snow levels dropping each day - Down to 500ft - 1000ft Tues & Wed mornings - Light amounts (Trace-1.0") for valley floors - Heaviest amounts for western Siskiyou, Mt Shasta area, Cascades, and Kalmiopsis Wilderness

* Rainfall: Minor Impacts - Continues through late this week - Not expecting widespread flooding but roads could be hazardous

* Wind - Combination of wind & snow could further disrupt travel by reducing visibilities - Breezy to gusty winds across northern California and eastside - Breezy winds also possible for some westside areas

-Guerrero

AVIATION...16/18Z TAFS

A cold front is slowly pushing through southern Oregon as of late this morning. Scattered showers and some lower MVFR and IFR ceilings are being observed ahead of this front. Behind the front and along the coast, MVFR ceilings mixed with periods of VFR ceilings are most likely for the remainder of the day

There is some cold air behind this front and some of the terminals will have a good chance of snow showers later tonight into Tuesday morning. Medford(KMFR) usually under performs under a shower pattern with westerly flow, although a short wave will enhance things tonight. Snow levels will bottom out around 1300 feet, so it will definitely be cold enough for accumulating snow.

Look for IFR and LIFR conditions later tonight as this next short wave moves through and produces snow and lower ceilings at many of the terminals.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Monday, February 16, 2026

Steep seas continue this afternoon and evening. We'll see seas move even higher by Tuesday as wave heights approach 16 feet in the outer waters due to an increasing westerly to northwester swell. These conditions will remain hazardous to smaller crafts through Wednesday. The weather pattern will keep this northwesterly swell and breezy northwesterly winds into Thursday.

Eventually, a low will likely deepen in the eastern Pacific around 140W. Models are bringing some strong southerly winds to our waters with Gale force winds a threat for the region.

-Smith

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 1117 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026/

DISCUSSION.../Issued 433 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026/ With an upper trough looking to stay in place over the western United States, active wintry weather is expected through most of the upcoming week. Conditions today do look to stay relatively unimpactful but worsen overnight. A low pressure system that was bringing precipitation to northern California weakens and another low approaches the area from the north. Both of these systems will bring precipitation through the day across northern California and southern Oregon, but nothing hazardous for most areas. A Winter Storm Warning remains in place for areas in Siskiyou County over 5000 feet, where moderate to heavy snowfall is expected. Snow levels look to stay at 3500-4500 feet through the morning. As the system from the north approaches, snow levels will start to drop for areas west of the Cascades. West of the Cascades, light snowfall is expected to stay over terrain through today. The Cascades themselves and the Warner Mountains in Modoc County will see significant snowfall of 5 to 10 inches today, and lower elevation areas east of the Cascades look to see fractions of an inch of snowfall.

The low pressure system to the north moves over the area on Tuesday, bringing a cold air mass as well as abundant precipitation across the area. Westerly flow aloft will focus activity over western Siskiyou COunty and the Cascades. By early Tuesday morning, snow levels west of the Cascades look to lower to 500-1000 feet, bringing the possibility of snowfall to west side valley floors. For the west side, the most activity looks to take place through the morning. The Mount Shasta region (Mount Shasta City, Dunsmuir, Weed) and areas east of the Cascades will see more activity in the late afternoon and evening. With the exception of the Umpqua Valley, area valleys and basins may see 1 to 2 inches of snowfall. Lingering surface warming and moisture will help to prevent immediate accumulation in these areas, but roadways may be locally slick where slush is present. 5 to 12 inches of snowfall is expected over the Cascades, with 12 to 24 inches forecast over terrain in western Siskiyou County.

With low snow levels and precipitation continuing through the day, Winter Storm Warnings are in place for areas at 1500 feet or higher west of the Cascades. This Warning is meant to highlight the chance of dangerous conditions while traveling over area passes. A Winter Storm Warning also remains in place for areas in western Siskiyou County and in the Mount Shasta region for continuing snowfall. All other areas have a Winter Weather Advisory in place starting Tuesday morning.

The cold air mass lingers on Wednesday but precipitation becomes more showery and intermittent across the area. Snowfall remains in the forecast for elevated terrain, while valley floors may see an occasional snow shower. One recent addition to the suite of winter hazards is a Freeze Watch for coastal areas early Wednesday morning. Additional information on how the cold air mass looks to behave will help to determine if an upgrade to a Freeze Warning will be needed.

Another round of possibly impactful activity is possible on Thursday as another low pressure system looks to slide into the upper trough and swing over the area. Some questions on timing and snow levels in this timeframe remain, and the path of the low could change the expected impacts as well. Please stay tuned for any updates on the forecast as winter weather looks to continue towards the end of the week and possibly into the upcoming weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023-024- 026.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>031.

Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-082- 083.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ081-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.