textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)

Key Points:

* Rain: Chances through tonight - Rainfall greatest along/near the coast - Amounts generally decrease as you go east - Not expecting widespread hazards from rainfall - More rainfall next week but some uncertainty exists

* Snow: Ending tonight - Snow levels dropping to 4000 tonight - Passes near Crater Lake will have hazardous conditions

* Wind: Breezy to gusty winds for eastside areas today - Isolated advisory conditions through this afternoon

* Additional Snowfall: - Very light amounts Tues-Wed for elevations 5,000ft+ - Higher snowfall amounts potentially Fri-Sat - A cooler airmass will allow for higher accumulations - Snow levels potentially as low as 2500ft Saturday night

Further Details:

The pattern aloft can be summed up as a broad area of cyclonic flow over the Gulf of Alaska resulting in generally southwest flow over the forecast area. This pattern will continue to pump moisture into the region from the Pacific with widespread showers expected today as a front continue to push through the region. Snow will be confined to higher elevations mainly above 4500 feet, but some areas near 4000 feet will see light accumulations. Outside of passes near Crater Lake seeing slippery/snow covered roads, we are not expecting widespread hazards from snowfall. Rainfall will slowly dissipate through this evening becoming more isolated overnight. While a couple isolated light showers could linger through Monday morning, we are expecting mostly dry conditions to start the week tomorrow. This will begin a brief break in activity Monday. However, a low does emerge from the base of the broader flow over the Gulf of Alaska, and will enter the region on Tuesday. Deterministic models bring the low in from the south to southwest and over the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This flow and pattern will bring light snowfall amounts to elevations mainly above 5000 feet. As supported by ensembles, not expecting any hazards as accumulations will be confined to higher mainly uninhabited areas. For rainfall, we will see amounts highest across northern California under this pattern Tuesday into Wednesday, but widespread hazards are not expecting from rainfall.

A stronger and deeper trough looks to develop and impact the region Fri/Sat with snow levels potentially as low as 2500 feet Saturday night. This could potentially bring more widespread hazardous conditions to the area with moderate to heavy snowfall, heavy rainfall, and gusty wind speeds. The finer details will become clearer over the coming days. That said, this system could bring advisories and/or warnings across the area with a much colder airmass. Snowfall could impact Highway 140 near Lake of the Woods and potentially light amounts over Siskiyou Summit on I-5. Additionally, Mount Ashland could see snow amounts they haven't seen much of this winter. Again, too early to say with much confidence the exact details, but we are considering a scenario with more widespread hazardous weather...which we just haven't seen much of this winter. Stay tuned.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

Ongoing rain will persist today eventually tapering off tonight. Showers will become scattered as the day progresses and eventually more isolated this evening. The result will be reduced visibilities and lower ceilings across the region. MVFR conditions will be common today and tonight, but we may have IFR conditions come to fruition as rain ends and fog/low ceilings decrease further overnight. An isolated strike or two of lightning is not out of the question as well, with KOTH and KRBG having the highest threat this afternoon.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Sunday, February 8, 2026

Winds have diminished behind the departing front, but steep seas continue south of Cape Blanco. West swell will build again tonight with seas becoming steep across all of the southern Oregon coastal waters. Steep seas persist while winds turn northerly on Monday and increase into early Tuesday. Conditions improve, especially in the inner waters, at mid-week as north winds ease and seas lower. Active weather returns Thursday night.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ030-031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-370.