textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler weather and some chances of rain will arrive in northern California later today with lower chances of rain in southern Oregon.

* A weakening cold front will push into the coast Wednesday night.

* Temperatures trend higher by Saturday.

* Another cold front will move into our region Saturday night into Sunday morning with wetting rain west of the Cascades.

DISCUSSION

KMAX is picking up on radar echos just off shore of northern California this morning. The low that is currently offshore will move inland into northern California later this afternoon. The best chance for rain will be in northern California with the probability of precipitation around 40 to 60 percent in Siskiyou and Modoc Counties. The probability of rain decreases significantly farther north in southern Oregon and is around 10 to perhaps 15% around Jackson, Klamath and Curry Counties. No impacts are anticipated with this light rain this afternoon into this evening.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, high pressure will build in the wake of this passing low. We should see some fog in the valleys across our region and the GFS MOS statistical guidance is predicting fog here in Medford. However, forecast soundings don't look that impressive with a modest inversion, so not expecting anything really dense.

By Wednesday, the weather will be quiet to start with a weakening warm front pushing into the coast. Temperatures won't trend higher as we'll have persistent high cloud cover. Eventually, a cold front will move into the coast by Wednesday night. The latest NBM forecast is looking pretty good with PoPs in the 90% to 80% range along the coast with 30% to 70% farther inland west of the Cascades. Those PoP values again drop off significantly the farther one moves eastwards. Rain accumulation will remain light with only a few hundreths falling with perhaps 0.1 inches near Coos Bay/North Bend. Again, no impacts anticipated Wednesday night.

Thursday seems to be a lull between the systems with more zonal type flow. The NBM forecast is predicting 10 to 20% cloud cover during Thursday afternoon as temperatures remains in the lower 60's. However, cloud cover should again increase ahead of the next system under deeper south west flow by Friday. Some light rain could fall along the coast as PoPs are around 10% to 15%.

By Saturday night into Sunday morning, another short wave cold front combo will push into Oregon. The bulk of the rain appears to fall to our north with some lighter precipitation farther south. This system is currently the wettest over the next 7 days with a few tenths of rain accumulating west of the Cascades. Again, impacts will be minimal here, although it could be breezy along the Oregon coast with some gusts up to 40 mph ahead of the cold front.

Lastly, we're keeping an eye on the weather next week when the models are showing showing a higher probability of an atmospheric river over our area. However, when comparing the 0Z ensembles 24 hours ago to the latest 0Z ensembles, conditions did seem to trend drier here in southern Oregon and northern California between the 10th and the 12th of November. Right now the 13th and 14th are looking like the better days for heavier rain.

Overall, a pretty active weather pattern over the next seven days. However, the weather impacts to infrastructure and the general public is very low.

AVIATION....03/06Z

High clouds will remain in place tonight with mainly VFR conditions across the area. The exception will be areas of fog and low clouds expected to develop in the Umpqua Basin around 11Z and persisting to around 18Z. Additionally, as high clouds thin briefly in the late night and early Tuesday morning, there is also a low chance (15%) for local IFR/LIFR in fog to develop in Rogue Valley, including the vicinities of Grants Pass and Medford, around sunrise (14Z through 17Z).

During the day Tuesday, a low will move into Northern California, with showers likely for Siskiyou and Modoc counties in the afternoon and evening. Expect mainly VFR, except for local MVFR in heavier showers and areas of higher terrain obscurations.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Seas will remain high into today as wave heights around 10 feet continue through the day. Conditions briefly improve on Wednesday. An active pattern resumes Wednesday night with building seas.

Seas rise again as a swell around 10 feet at 15 seconds moves into the waters by Thursday. The long period swell dominated seas should reach a peak on Friday night at around 13 to 17 feet at 15 to 17 seconds. An active weather pattern will likely continue during the weekend into next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.