textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this morning into the early afternoon, with a majority of the activity from the Cascades eastward. Showers will taper off during the late afternoon and early evening, lingering longest in Lake County.

* Under the center of an upper level trough, and with the wet, mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions, it will be several degrees cooler today. Clearing will lead to a chilly couple of nights with a Freeze Watch in effect east of the Cascades for Monday morning, and freezing temperatures also possible on Tuesday morning.

* A strong warming and drying trend is expected Monday into Thursday, with inland highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s today trending to the mid 80s to mid 90s at mid-week.

* Higher uncertainty late in the week, Friday through next weekend, with dry and warm weather most likely to continue. But, a slight chance of showers is appropriately in the forecast. This reflects the around 5% to 10% of GEFS ensemble model solutions and 15-25% of ECMWF ensemble members on each day that show a stronger trough arriving from the northwest with at least modest coverage of shower activity in our area. The probability is highest during Saturday afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION

Day-time heating will enhance the coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, while the upper level trough tracks east across Oregon. Activity is likely to peak in the early afternoon, with showers persisting east of the Cascades into this evening. With the hit or miss nature of these showers, parts of the area will remain dry today, but amounts of up to a quarter of an inch should be common.

With clearing expected tonight in areas other than Coos and Douglas counties, the forecast was updated to include a Freeze Watch /PDXNPWMFR/ east of the Cascades on Monday morning. It will be drier on Tuesday morning, for lower dew points, a greater potential of colder temperatures. But, the coldest portion of the air mass aloft will have shifted east of our area. So, the extent of cooling on Tuesday will depend on the characteristics of morning valley inversions.

Confidence is high in warmer, dry conditions Monday through Thursday with a ridge building into our region from the Great Basin.

Late in the week, a trough is expected to push into the west coast. The majority of solutions keep it well northeast of our area before it finally crosses into the states near Montana. However, it is still possible that a stronger, sharper trough follows a more northerly track into the Pacific Northwest. Of those solutions, few are fast enough to bring impacts to our weather by Friday. A higher but still only slight chance probability is for shower and thunderstorm chances to hold off until the weekend.

AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs

There are areas of IFR/LIFR at the coast, with gradual lifting and breaking of the overcoast expected during the morning into the early afternoon. Elsewhere, conditions are mainly VFR, though with some obscuration of the higher terrain.

Showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are expected in our area into the early evening, with a focus of peak coverage in the late morning and early afternoon rather than the usual late afternoon. At terminals, the main impacts will be a line of heavier showers now at Klamath Falls/KLMT tracking slowly northeastward for the next couple of hours, through around 14Z, with a thunderstorm possibly developing. Also, the southern edge of a band of heavier showers now in southern Douglas County that should slowly swing through the Medford/KMFR vicinity around 15Z-22Z. From 18Z to 03Z, late morning into the evening, a majority of shower and thunderstorm activity will be from the Cascades eastward, though also continuing to the north of central Douglas County.

Clouds diminish in most areas after 03Z this evening, but IFR/LIFR is expected to form at the coast north of Cape Blanco (including North Bend/KOTH) after 03Z. It will spread into the Coquille and lower Umpqua valleys overnight, with areas of MVFR likely in the remainder of the Umpqua Valley early Monday morning.

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Sunday, September 6, 2026

Mixed south and fresh northwest swells will produce low seas today. A thermal trough develops early Monday, bringing gusty north winds and steep wind seas south of Port Orford. Steep seas extend to Cape Arago Monday night, and across the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night. Winds briefly diminish Wednesday, but steep seas may linger.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for ORZ029>031.

CA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for CAZ082- 084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.