textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Frontal system with light rain presses east of the Cascades this morning with some showers lingering behind it. Rainfall fizzles east of the Cascades.

* There is a slight chance of thunderstorms (~15%) north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide through this afternoon. * Temperatures well below normal (10-20F) today, then remaining a little cooler than normal (5-10F) this weekend. Frost/freezing conditions possible East Side tonight.

* Mostly dry weather continues this weekend, though a system may cause isolated showers in NE Cal or near the Warner Mtns later Sunday.

DISCUSSION

A potent low pressure system is moving onshore into western Washington this morning. This brought a cold front through west side areas last night and the tail end of that will press east of the Cascades this morning. Precipitation was light to moderate, for the most part, with amounts generally ranging from 0.50-1.00 inch along the coast and 0.25-0.50 of an inch just inland and north/west of the Rogue Valley. Curry coast and coastal ranges exceeded 1.00 inch with the big winners Red Mound RAWS (1.63") and Brookings agrimet site (1.64"). Here in Medford, amounts were generally ~0.10 of an inch at the various local gauges (0.13" officially here at the airport as of 3am), though the front is losing its upper support and precip is fizzling as it moves over the Cascades. There could be a click or two as far east as Christmas Valley this morning.

Colder air is moving in aloft, so today will be much cooler than recent days, with high temps about 10-20F below normal. This puts us in the upper 60s for highs here, maybe around 70F if we're lucky. The air mass should be unstable enough to generate some showers through this afternoon from the Cascades/Siskiyous north and west. These will be most numerous along the coast and north of the Umpqua Divide. There is a small chance (~15%) of a thunderstorm up there as well (around Roseburg north). High pressure builds in to the north tonight and this will bring some clearing and a chilly night. Fog could develop in some areas toward sunrise, especially where there was rainfall. Frost/freezing conditions are possible in portions of NE Cal and the East Side. Multiple nights of frost and even freezing conditions in many of those areas thus far in September has pretty much ended the growing season over there. We'll take a look at this today, but it doesn't appear we'll need headlines at this time.

Temperatures should rebound a bit this weekend, but will likely remain at least a little below normal. Overall, though, this should make for a couple of pretty nice days. Models are showing another upper trough swinging into the area on Sunday with a low closing off SW of Redding. While precip probabilities are still quite low (15% or less), we wouldn't be surprised to see a few pop-up showers (at least some cumulus) over the southern and eastern mountains -- Shasta/Trinity and over to the Warners Sunday afternoon/evening. The remainder of the area should remain dry.

Upper ridging builds back in Mon/Tue with the next north Pacific frontal system getting strung out to our north Tuesday night. So, this means generally quiet weather will continue into mid next week. Guidance mostly maintains near normal temps, but some suites, mostly the EC members, push us to slightly above normal levels by Wed/Thu (low to mid 80s). NBM probability of MaxT>80F for Medford on Wednesday is 40%. Current forecast has 78F. -Spilde

AVIATION...25/12Z TAFs

What's left of the front is pressing east of the Cascades early this morning. Overall, there is a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions with areas of higher terrain obscured. Locally foggy conditions are developing along the south coast. VFR is most prevalent across NorCal and over the east side deserts. Expect gusty winds to continue across the terrain east of the Cascades, but these should tend to ease as the day progresses. Behind the front, conditions will continue to waver between VFR and MVFR through this evening west of the Cascades along with some showers. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible, generally from around Roseburg north. South of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, expect clouds to gradually dissipate later this afternoon as the air mass dries out. Tonight, models are showing an area of higher clouds moving in and this should limit low cloud/fog development somewhat. Still, with the recent rainfall and moist ground, there ought to be some local valley IFR/LIFR. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday, September 25, 2026

Low pressure will move onshore into the PacNW today. Gusty (even perhaps gale force) S-SW winds continue early this morning north of Reedsport, then will become more NW and ease this afternoon. Very steep seas (10-14 ft north of Brookings) early this morning gradually subside with small craft advisory conditions all areas this afternoon. Seas diminish below advisory levels briefly tonight, but a thermal trough develops quickly. North winds return resulting in another period of steep wind seas and small craft advisory conditions, highest south of Cape Blanco this weekend. These conditions could persist into early next week. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ356- 376.

Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350- 370.