textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion Updated.

AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs

Conditions will remain VFR this afternoon into early this evening. Then late this evening and tonight, expect lingering moisture and to allow areas of low clouds and patchy fog to develop in valleys west of the Cascades. This is expected to bring IFR/LIFR tonight, including at Roseburg and Medford.

On Monday morning, an approaching front will spread clouds into the area with rain developing along the coast, with rain spreading inland during the day. This will bring IFR/MFR conditions to the coast late Monday morning and afternoon. Additionally, as winds increase aloft, expect a period of wind shear along the coast Monday morning and early afternoon. Inland, expect low clouds to lift to VFR in the mid morning. Then, high resolution models indicate that gusty winds will develop in the afternoon at most all area TAF sites, strongest at the coast. Areas of MFR ceilings will spread inland west of the Cascades in the late afternoon as rain increases.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 215 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025/

DISCUSSION...An active pattern will continue through the next several days, with only a few breaks here and there all the way into next weekend. There will be several systems impacting the area between now and next weekend: the first a compact surface low passing just offshore Monday, followed by a very robust system Tuesday into early Wednesday, followed by yet another front around Thursday, then finally another system arrives late next weekend. Wet and windy weather will accompany nearly all of these systems, but winter weather will not be too much of a concern given the expected higher snow levels.

The big change in the forecast focuses on Monday. Yesterday, model suites depicted a slow moving warm front moving north into the region then nearly stalling out, producing light rain and breezes Monday into Tuesday. Today, those same suites have nearly unanimously agreed on the development of a compact surface low offshore tonight, that then quickly slides right up to the southern Oregon coast before passing onshore just to our north. These lows can be very impactful, but are also notoriously difficult to forecast. There is a chance that the models switch up again tonight, but a glance at satellite imagery offshore does show a little swirl of clouds beginning to form up right where the models expect, so confidence is better than expected. This low will sweep up the coast Monday afternoon, and model pressure gradients suggest that high winds are possible for much of the coast, but are almost guaranteed for the capes and headlands, as well as some of our more exposed coastline. Have issued a High Wind Warning for those portions of the coast, with the idea that strong winds could spread to other areas as well depending on the track and strength of the low. Breezy winds are expected across the area with this low, but are not expected to be impactful at this time. Also, the system will bring a burst of rain, again concentrated along and west of the coastal mountains. Winds die down and most areas should see precipitation come to an end Monday night, but the break will be brief.

The most impactful system in the forecast is then set to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a intense front and a substantial moisture plume bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation to southern Oregon and far northern California. The surface low on Monday has altered the pattern sightly with some of the downstream systems, with some minor changes in timing and intensity, but only slightly. With surface pressure gradients ranging roughly between -6 and -8 mb across the area, and with 700mb winds of 50 to 70 kts, it still looks likely that wind headlines will be necessary, especially along the coast, in the Shasta Valley, and across the East Side. The negative tilt in the upper level trough also suggests that that stronger winds could impact portions of the West Side as well, including the I-5 corridor from Ashland to Medford, and in some of the other roughly south/north oriented valleys.

Meanwhile, moisture transport values for this front, as measured by IVT, a function of wind and humidity, are expected to reach values of 1000 to 1250 (a typical front would average about 500). This would be considered a strong atmospheric river, or a rather classic "Pineapple Express," as the moisture plume originates from the tropics near Hawai'i. A substantial amount of rain is possible for much of the area, especially along the coast and in Siskiyou County. However, the front is a fast mover, and some locations, such as the Rogue Valley near Medford and much of the East Side, will see lesser amounts due to significant downsloping winds off the Siskiyous and Cascades. While widespread flooding is not expected at this time, we will likely see nuisance type flooding with ponding on roadways and blocked drains due to recently fallen leaves. Additionally, King Tides are expected Nov 5-7 (Wednesday through Friday) which could bring additional impacts to the coast as this system enters the region, especially with heavy rains putting additional water into area rivers and estuaries.

Lastly, snow levels will remain high through next week, between 6000 and 8000 feet, so we are not expecting any impactful winter weather.

Another robust front arrives Thursday, and although it looks weaker than the previous one, most model guidance suites are depicting somewhat similar potential for impactful winds and rain. This storm, however, will coincide with the highest King Tides around noon on Thursday. Ocean level models are depicting a small storm surge with the event, along with high surf conditions which will push water into local bays and estuaries, which will make tidal influences even stronger. Some localized coastal flooding is possible, particularly for low lying areas and roads around Coos Bay, and erosion along area beaches will be a concern.

After a brief break Friday into Saturday, we are seeing the signs of another frontal system late Saturday into Sunday. While the model suites agree on a brief period of ridging and dry weather around roughly Saturday, there is quite a bit of variation in model guidance regarding that next storm system at this time range, so confidence is low. Confidence remain high, however, that the active storm pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. -BPN

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, November 2, 2025...A mix of active weather and impactful swell looks to support unsettled to chaotic seas through the week and into next weekend. For today, continuing northwest swell will support steep seas in all waters through Monday afternoon.

A new feature has developed in forecast guidance for Monday. A compact area of low pressure looks to move over the area from late Monday morning to early Tuesday morning. This low will bring gusty southerly winds as it moves from south to north. The strongest winds are most likely to be north of Cape Blanco and within 30 nm of shore under a coastal jet. Winds in this jet may exceed 45 kts. As the path of this low has some variability and with near-gale to gale gusts forecast for most waters, a Gale Warning has been issued to cover all area waters for Monday evening through Tuesday morning to ensure awareness of possible hazardous conditions.

Conditions may briefly improve later Tuesday morning before a significant front approaches. Winds increase on Tuesday afternoon and peak early Wednesday morning. Widespread gale gusts are expected and may approach 50 kt in outer waters. Additionally, marine thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday morning.

Winds ease Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but very steep and hazardous long-period swell follows through the day. High surf is expected, with current guidance building 22-26 ft surf heights. King Tides are expected on Thursday, which may increase the impact of hazardous conditions. Bar crossings may become especially dangerous and fishing infrastructure may be vulnerable. Finally, a third front will bring additional gusty southerly winds on Wednesday afternoon and evening. These gusts could approach gale speeds, adding to an already chaotic time period.

The Tuesday afternoon-Thursday evening period will receive full hazard products in the near future, but additional guidance will help to improve the timing and of those products and the expected conditions.

Weather activity eases on Friday and Saturday, but lingering swell is likely to support steep to very steep and hazardous seas into the first half of the weekend. Active weather may return later in the weekend or early next week. -TAD

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, November 2, 2025...Hazardous beach conditions are possible on Thursday as a strong storm is expected to bring a large long period west swell to the coast. This may result in large breaking waves of around 23 to 26 ft. High Surf conditions may be elevated by high "King" tides during this time period. This situation may create hazardous conditions along the Southern Oregon Coast on Thursday.

Impacts could include large breaking waves within the surf zone, which could inundate beaches and low lying shorelines as well as damage exposed coastal infrastructure. Waves could wash over rocks and jetties, and sweep unsuspecting people out to see. During high surf conditions, avoid area beaches and exposed coastal areas. Never turn your back on the ocean! Additionally, low lying streets susceptible to impacts from King tides and high surf may become flooded. Never drive through flooded waters.

While there is still some uncertainty in the exact details, this looks to be a potentially dangerous situation setting up along the coast. We will continue to monitor and update the forecast as this storm nears.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Monday for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356- 370-376.