textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...23/00Z TAFs

A mostly dry frontal system will move southward through the area tonight through Friday. This will bring a deck of mostly VFR cloudiness with ceilings above 8kft this evening, lowering to around 3-6kft overnight into Friday morning. Precip chances remain low or non-existent in most places, but wouldn't be surprised if a little light rain falls along the coast north of Cape Blanco or stray snow flurries occur over the higher terrain of the East Side.

Meanwhile, LIFR ceilings persist in and around the notorious fog/low cloud "bowls" of Grants Pass/Roseburg. These ceilings will be difficult to break given the strength of the inversion tonight. However, the system arriving from the north could allow for just enough mixing on Friday for conditions to improve to VFR. Model guidance isn't much help in this regard seeing as it doesn't even acknowledge the existence of the fog/low clouds right now. But, since the overall air mass will be drying out, we're optimistically allowing for a period of VFR conditions there late in the afternoon.

Cloud cover (6-8kft) coming into the area from the north tonight could be timed well enough to preclude fog development here in Medford. Due to this likelihood, we've backed off on the forecast of LIFR conditions, though still hinted at some potential for fog or a low ceiling to develop around or just after sunrise at KMFR.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 305 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026/

DISCUSSION...

The ridge that has been lingering over the forecast area for the better part of two weeks will finally star to break down, or at least move farther west later tonight into Friday. Models show a shortwave and some energy pushing into southern Oregon and northern California tonight. This will result in a weaker inversion and low chance of precipitation east of the Cascades tonight and perhaps along the coast. The chance of precipitation is about 10 to 15 percent.

Looking at some soundings, one can see there should be a cloud layer around 750 to 700 mb, so lows shouldn't drop as low tonight compared to last night, especially east of the Cascades. Therefore, we dismissed the cold weather advisory for tonight. However, it will be cooler than normal later tonight.

The pattern continues to change with a strong surface high building east of the Cascades and east to west wind flow developing during the day. The air will become fairly dry with some cooler air trying to settle into the valleys on Friday night and Saturday morning. This is the day of higher concern for colder overnight lows with the potential for freezing temperatures along the coast. The NBM has a 50% chance of temperatures <32 around North Bend on Friday night and Saturday morning. Therefore, we decided to issue a freeze watch for the immediate coast in Douglas and Coos Counties. The main impact is for plants and some outdoor plumbing that could freeze overnight.

High pressure will rebuild by Sunday as a short wave approaches the Oregon coastline around Sunday night. This wave will come in dry, although we should see some cloud cover and perhaps a stray shower along the Oregon coastline around Monday afternoon and evening.

The big change is anticipated around Wednesday as a cold front pushes into Oregon and northern California. Ensemble data is showing precipitation hitting the region with the heaviest rainfall to our south. There is still a rather large number of members that keep us dry and not much if anything falling in southern Oregon and northern California. The NBM forecast has very little snow accumulating on the mountains, so it's not looking great for accumulating snowpack right now.

Overall, the dryish trend continues, although the weather pattern will likely become more progressive by next week.

-Smith

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...The main areas of concern for low ceilings and fog are in west side valleys and out to the Coquille Valley. The Rogue Valley has seen some improvements near Medford to VFR conditions, although Grants Pass will still have the lower conditions through this morning. The Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg, will not see much recovery today besides some relief in visibilities this afternoon, but the terminal is likely to stay in IFR/LIFR today as trends continue. For North Bend, it has been noted that between 06Z-12Z there could be a lower ceiling if the Coquille Valley low clouds expand west enough. However, overall expecting VFR conditions at North Bend and Klamath Falls. -Hermansen

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PST Thursday, January 22, 2026... Northerly winds have been increasing today and will continue through Friday. Seas are steep and hazardous to smaller crafts south of Cape Blanco, especially beyond 10 nm from shore. Sustained winds will be 20 to 30 knots with gusts around 35 knots with wind wave dominated seas under 10 feet. Winds will weaken Saturday as they become northeasterly, with conditions continuing to improve into early next week. A more active pattern is expected to follow later next week with a couple of cold fronts possible around middle of next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for ORZ021.

Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for ORZ023-024-026- 029>031.

Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST Friday for ORZ024.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday for PZZ356-376.