textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

With the aid of lingering low level moisture in the wake of the past couple of days of showers, and relatively light north winds, areas of low clouds are in place west of the Cascades...especially banked up against the north facing slopes of the southern portions of the Umpqua and Rogue valleys. A ridge and deepening thermal trough will bring a drying northeast flow today with skies expected to clear by the afternoon. The air mass will continue to dry into Saturday with a more limited coverage of patchy late night valley clouds each night.

Well-below-freezing low temperatures in the teens and 20s are expected east of the Cascades again on both Friday and Saturday, while a widespread frost and areas of freezing temperatures will be present again on the West Side on Friday.

The ridge will weaken and shift eastward during the weekend. Though still with chilly mornings and very warm afternoons, low temperatures will trend higher and high temperatures will trend lower during the weekend.

This will help usher in a change in the pattern early next week. It still is most likely that rain with a cold front, the first in a series of disturbances, will hold off at the coast until late Sunday night. But, the 00Z ECMWF is in harmony with a distinct minority of ensemble members that indicate a few light showers in southwest Oregon as early as Sunday afternoon.

There is better model agreement on the cold front tracking across our area during Monday into Monday night with snow levels around 7000 feet, though still not in solid agreement on the speed or strength of the front. As such, west side rain is likely for the coast and higher terrain, but amounts are in question. This also leads to differences in whether there will be much precipitation on the east side in a rather unfavorable west-southwest flow aloft.

Beyond Monday, for at least Tuesday into Tuesday night, the question becomes the extent to which the slow moving front will remain over our area while a reinforcing trough moves eastward toward northern California. This looks to be a high probability of light showers situation across our area, with rain favored in Siskiyou County and southward.

For Wednesday and Thursday, model differences increase, but so does the probability of a trough and associated cold front that would be strong enough to call it a storm system. Snow levels are forecast at around 4500 to 5000 feet, which would just get down to many of the major passes, or at least the soil adjacent to those road surfaces. For now, will have to just stay tuned with a possibility of colder/wetter or less cold/less wet solutions to verify.

AVIATION...26/12Z TAFs

Gusty north winds are expected along the coast today into this evening with low level speeds of 20 to 40 kt. Conditions across the area will be mainly VFR into Friday morning, except for patches of valley IFR and terrain obscuration until around 18Z this morning. This includes the Coquille and Camas valleys, and portions of the Umpqua, Rogue, and Scott valleys.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, March 26, 2026

A thermal trough will strengthen into this evening, and remain strong into Friday night. North winds will reach gale force to the south of Cape Blanco this afternoon and evening, with steep to very steep seas across the southern Oregon coastal waters into Friday night. The main update this morning was to extend the hazardous seas warning in the southern outer waters and the small craft advisory for the remainder of the waters through Friday evening, with northerly winds on Friday expected to be only slightly less strong than those today.

Winds ease Saturday, but seas are likely to remain steep. Further improvement is expected on Sunday, with a period of below advisory seas possible to end the weekend. Active weather could bring rain and building seas from Monday into the middle of next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356.

Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ376.