textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...25/00Z TAFs

A front will gradually move onshore this evening and inland overnight into Friday morning. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue ahead of this front, with a secondary uptick in winds expected between 09z-15z Friday morning. Winds will be strongest along the coast and over the marine waters, and low level wind shear will be a concern north of Cape Blanco this evening through around 09z before stronger winds aloft surface late tonight.

VFR conditions prevail across the region, but expect conditions to lower to MVFR along the coast as moderate precipitation moves onshore between 01z-03z. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms along the coast as this front moves inland. Ceilings lower inland to the Cascades as well, but should remain VFR. The front will wash out as it moves inland, so expect VFR conditions to prevail east of the Cascades and across northern California. Showers will follow behind the front through Friday morning, mainly along the coast and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide. Otherwise, clouds will gradually dissipate late Friday morning into the afternoon. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 301 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty winds are expected along the coast and in the high Cascades later tonight.

* Wetting rain is expected west of the Cascades with a low chance of rain by Friday morning.

* Temperatures cooler than normal Friday into the weekend.

* Low impact weather continues into the weekend with some areas of frost and freezing temperatures Friday night.

DISCUSSION...

Radar echos are starting to show up off the coast this afternoon as warm moist air moves in ahead of cold front. That cold front should swing through the southern Oregon coast later tonight into Friday morning with wetting rainfall along the coast and over locations west of the Cascades. Rainfall will generally be 0.15 to 0.4 inches with significantly lower totals east of the Cascades. Northern California will also miss out of the rain as the moisture and lifting mechanisms are farther to the north.

Main impacts from this event will be some gusty winds in the Cascades and along the coast. The extreme forecast index(EFI) is pointing out unusually high wind speed and wind gust values off our coastline in the Pacific. However, nothing really stands out over land. We're expecting some gusts to 45 mph near North Bend with the frontal passage. Those stronger wind gusts should also hit the higher Cascades and exposed areas around Crater Lake and Diamond Lake.

Eventually, the cold front will push into southern Oregon later tonight around 10 to 11 pm and move eastwards overnight. Temperatures will cool rapidly overnight and trend about 10 degrees cooler for Friday night. There is some risk of frost and freezing temperatures in northern California near Tennant and Tulelake area Friday night. We're holding off on any products right now, although it is something to watch for. Right now the NBM has a 80-90% chance of reaching 32F around Tennant and Bray in central Siskiyou County.

Later in the day, the trough axis will shift eastwards by Friday afternoon and we'll see isolated showers over southern Oregon by Friday afternoon. Conditions gradually trend drier into the day as high pressure slowly builds.

By this weekend, things will quiet down with temperatures much cooler than normal as highs push into lower 70's and upper 60's, which is roughly 10 degrees cooler than normal for late September. Heading into next week, zonal flow is more likely with a warm front pushing into southern Oregon and northern California. Temperatures make a gradual trend higher through the 70's for most of next week. Ensembles remain very dry for our area with the next cold front hitting Washington state. About 2/50 12Z ECMWF ensembles bring some rain our way, so the chance of rain around Tuesday into Wednesday is very unlikely.

Heading towards the end of next week, there are more hints of a trough passage and perhaps some rain here in southern Oregon and northern California. Again, the odds remain very low and under 5%.

Overall, active weather continues through the forecast period with limited impacts to the public and regional infrastructure.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, September 24, 2026... Southerly winds are present across area waters ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The system looks to swing to the north and keep the strongest winds out of this area, but gusty winds and very steep seas are still expected this evening into Friday morning. Gale gusts will be possible north of Reedsport late tonight through early Friday morning, while hazardous seas are expected in all other waters. Gale gusts leave the forecast but very steep and hazardous seas look to continue in all waters into Friday afternoon.

Winds and seas ease into Friday night but a thermal trough looks to develop on Saturday, which will keep some amount of unsettled seas across area waters. This through may be short-lived, with winds easing on Sunday. Long period westerly swell builds on Sunday afternoon, but right now guidance does not show this swell supporting Advisory conditions but local areas of steep seas may be possible. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350- 370.

Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.