textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION....AVIATION...25/18Z TAFs

Marine layer stratus will remain along the coast today with a mix of IFR/MVFR. A front moving onshore this evening will bring light rain with a return of lower IFR to LIFR conditions into Friday.

For areas south of the Umpqua Divide and east of the Cascades, gusty west to northwest breezes will develop this afternoon and evening. Gusts to 20 mph will be common around the Rogue Valley, but could reach 30 mph over the East Side. All inland areas will remain VFR through this evening, then ceilings will gradually lower, but remain VFR into Friday morning. The exception is that areas of MVFR ceilings and rain showers are expected to spread into the Umpqua Valley after 06Z this evening, and continue through Friday. This also will include obscuration of the southern Oregon Cascades after 06Z this evening and also the Siskiyou Mountains by Friday morning. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 436 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026/

DISCUSSION...Breezy winds this afternoon will be strongest east of the Cascades, while it will likely be more than a week until we are again quite so warm and dry. A significant pattern change is expected Friday into the weekend, with much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and precipitation chances. The probability of rain will be highest in southwest Oregon through Friday night, then into northern California on Saturday. This includes a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Warner Mountains on Friday. A gradual warming trend is expected next week.

Rain is expected to develop at the coast north of Cape Blanco around 7 PM PDT this evening, then spread both to the remainder of the coast and east across Douglas and northern portions of Klamath and Lake counties overnight. Tonight's rain will result mostly from the warm frontal portion of an occluding front. The slow-moving cold frontal portion will follow on Friday with the trailing surface trough and axis of the associated upper level trough on Saturday. A strong cooling trend into Saturday, will get a modest start today with readings several degrees lower than yesterday. But, highs on Saturday will be as much as 30 degrees lower than they were yesterday, which would be around 20 degrees lower than normal. The westerly flow pattern will produce around 0.05 inches to 0.40 inches of precipitation in southwest Oregon tonight through Friday night (highest amounts at the coast and eastern Douglas County), and up to 0.10 inches elsewhere in our area. Often, and likely in this case, we do get our highest precipitation totals when the post-frontal upper level trough axis swings across. This is timed for Saturday with it remaining wet in southwest Oregon (an additional 0.05 to 0.15 inches), but a band of higher amounts (0.10 to as much as 0.50 inches) also developing for southeast Siskiyou County into Modoc County and southward. When all is said and done, much of south central Oregon and much of Siskiyou County will have light amounts of a trace to 0.05 inches, but all of the area will experience the cooler temperatures and breezy afternoons.

Clouds and weak but steady overnight winds will limit the east- side frost/freeze potential, but Sunday morning (and to a lesser extent also Monday morning) does have a chance.

There is good model agreement that we will be on the back side of the cold upper trough on Sunday into Sunday night with some breaks of sun during the day, and lighter rain chances mostly limited to north and northwest facing slopes of Coos and Douglas counties.

Monday will be mostly dry with our area likely to be between troughs, as the next one moves into the Pacific Northwest. Generally, an upper trough pattern remains in the area next week, bringing west to northwest flow with slightly below normal to near normal temperatures and perhaps a few shower chances, especially for the coast and Douglas County northward next week. Details will depend on how strong the trough is and the exact east/west location of the trough axis in relation to our forecast area. The trough dominated pattern will likely allow some modest warming during the week, but with readings remaining below normal.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, June 25, 2026...Steep seas due to fresh northwest swell will linger in the southern waters early this morning. Winds remain relatively weak today through Saturday night, while a frontal system brings periods of light rain. But, stronger winds in the offshore waters will likely bring a steep, fresh west-northwest swell Friday night into Saturday night. Northerly winds will then be stronger early next week, especially south of Gold Beach. This includes a potential for gales in the southern waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.