textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* A dry cold front will bring slight cooling Saturday, but also breezy to gusty winds, highest east of the Cascades resulting in critical fire weather conditions.

* A thermal trough pattern Sunday into early next week will bring gusty north to northeast winds to the Umpqua and Illinois valleys, and the Oregon coast. Sunday will probably be the coolest day for most areas, except SW sections as offshore flow develops.

* Temperatures increase early next week, with a warm Chetco effect (80s in Brookings) Monday and the hottest temperatures inland Tue/Wed, then remaining above normal through Friday.

* Thunder chances remain very low (less than 5%) for the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

There is still plenty of smoke within Lake and Klamath Counties this afternoon. That smoke will move towards the east and north east this afternoon as the westerly winds pick up. Temperatures are also trending about 5 degrees warmer compared to this time yesterday.

The dry cold front on Saturday is the big story across the Pacific Northwest. Latest model guidance still has this front arriving later Saturday afternoon. Areas west of the Cascades are still anticipated to trend a few degrees cooler as this front moves onshore by the afternoon hours. East of the Cascades, winds will pick up with gusts to 30 mph most likely based on internal model output statistics(MOS) guidance. The front kind of dies once it makes it to southern Oregon and perhaps some might consider it a stationary front around the California and Oregon border Sunday. Redding CA will remain around 106 while MFR drops down to 87 for a high.

In any case, that relatively cooler air for early August will settle in within parts of our forecast area with some stronger northerly flow. The extreme forecast index(EFI) is showing values around 0.7 in areas west of the Cascades Sunday. This suggest some stronger northerly winds than what we usually see this time of year, especially closer to the coast. Right now, widespread gusts to 25 mph seems reasonable Sunday afternoon. This also makes some sense as the cooler more unstable air moves in above the hotter surface.

By Sunday night, models show a short wave moving through the Pacific Northwest with high pressure building in it's wake. This will help kick off a thermal trough west of the Cascades by Monday and Tuesday. Lighter northeast flow should develop over the region as temperatures easily hit the triple digit mark here in Medford. Brookings should also see some mid 80's Monday afternoon due to the northeast flow down the Chetco river.

These warmer temperatures will result in some moderate heat risk in our valleys west of the Cascades. Moderate heat risk means those very sensitive to heat will be impacted by the heat over the next few days. It's hard to call this a heat wave as it's only a few degrees warmer than our normal high for early August, the warmest time of year.

Heading towards the end of next week, the ensembles are still anticipating the ridge in California to remain in place. It's unclear exactly how warm it will be here in southern Oregon, although 90th to 99th percentile 500 mb heights will likely be in place next Friday and Saturday. This should keep many locations in the mid to upper 90's next weekend.

-Smith

AVIATION...01/00Z TAFs

Along the coast and over the coastal waters, IFR stratus is expected to develop this evening (beginning aorund 02-06z) and spread into northwestern portions of the the Umpqua Basin by early Saturday morning. Guidance is supporting a brief period of MVFR at Roseburg between 13-17z Saturday morning. Along the coast low clouds will clear to VFR in the late morning and early afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty afternoon and evening winds are expected at area TAF sites, especially on Saturday.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Friday, July 31, 2026

Relatively light north winds and seas are expected today, with some locally gusty winds south of Cape Blanco. Northerly winds increase Saturday afternoon with steep seas building south of Cape Blanco by evening. As a thermal trough strengthens along the coast, stronger, gale force winds and very steep seas are likely Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for areas south of Cape Blanco with gusty winds and steep seas expected north of Cape Blanco. Winds and seas are forecast to trend lower on Tuesday but expect continued steep seas across the waters.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 PM PDT Saturday, July 31, 2026

The main fire weather concern will be the arrival of a dry cold front Saturday. Confidence is increasing for some gusty winds around 30 mph in FWZs 625 and 624 covering Lake County. RHs will still remain very dry farther east as the cold front hits the Oregon coast by the Saturday afternoon and moves south eastwards by the overnight hours. Because there is decent confidence in reaching critical fire weather conditions, we upgraded the watch to a red flag warning.

The thermal trough Sunday night into Tuesday will be a concern. The north east winds will be gusty with lower humidities along the coastal range in Curry and Coos County. 12Z Monday appears to be the biggest concern with regards to NE winds. The NBM was picking up on those over the higher coastal terrain. Local MOS guidance suggests gusts 25 - 30 mph with moderate 40 to 50% overnight recoveries. Not a very strong thermal trough, but enough to increase the fire weather threat. Recoveries on the ridge tops and higher terrain will be poor Tuesday through Thursday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for PZZ356- 376.