textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Low impact weather expected through the forecast period.

* Temperatures trend warmer through the week, peaking around 10-15 degrees above normal over the weekend.

* Slight chance of thunderstorms east of the Cascades on Sunday.

* No signal for widespread precipitation for the next 7-10 days.

DISCUSSION

The upper level pattern will largely be ridge dominated through the week and into the weekend. Today will be the coolest day of the forecast period as the flow aloft remains northwest and a weak disturbance moves through this northwest flow. There will be a good marine push with this disturbance, so expect some decent stratus cover over the West Side tonight into Wednesday morning. Cloud cover will likely be most extensive along the coast and north of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide, but guidance shows this spilling over into the Illinois/Applegate Valleys and possibly even here into the Rogue Valley.

High pressure will linger off the California coast through Wednesday, then gradually shift inland Thursday and eventually settle over the Desert Southwest by the weekend. For the remainder of the week, our area will remain on the northern periphery of this high pressure with zonal flow aloft. Heights will subtly build through the week, bringing a warming trend in afternoon temperatures starting Wednesday. High temperatures will hover around 5-10 degrees above normal through the rest of the week, which brings mid-upper 80s for the West Side and upper 70s/low 80s for the East.

Weak low pressure approaches the area over the weekend. As this happens, the ridge axis becomes positively tilted over the region Saturday, and high temperatures peak over the weekend, trending higher by around another 5 degrees. This pushes highs in the lower 90s for the West Side and mid 80s for the East. The flow aloft becomes more southerly on Sunday, and the weak low pressure moves overhead. This could bring a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms to the area, most likely east of the Cascades. Current forecast keeps this mention out of the forecast for now, but the pattern is favorable for thunderstorm development on Sunday if it pans out.

High temperatures trend a few degrees cooler behind this weak low pressure for the early part of next week, but the upper level ridge rebounds quickly late Tuesday into Wednesday. Long term guidance is showing this ridge sticking around through much of next week (week of Oct 5th), which would maintain above normal temperatures and dry conditions through then.

AVIATION...29/18Z TAFs

Some low clouds along the coast north of Cape Blanco this morning will burn off in the next few hours. Another round of MVFR/IFR marine stratus/fog is expected to develop north of Cape Blanco this evening or early tonight, with guidance suggesting that stratus could reach into the Umpqua Valley and may even arrive at the ROseburg terminal by sunrise.

Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Tuesday, September 29, 2026

West-northwest swell dominated seas today will transition to wind wave dominated seas Wednesday as the thermal trough restrengthens and expands northward along the southern Oregon coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas then continue into Friday before weakening as the thermal trough moves inland this weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.