textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)

Conditions will be similar along the coast this evening/overnight as last night with IFR/LIFR, drizzle, and limited visibility under a marine stratus layer. Could also see intermittent periods of VFR Sunday afternoon as the stratus waffles on/off the coast, but most of this cycle will be LIFR/IFR. Inland TAFs should be mostly VFR with mostly clear skies and light winds. Roseburg may have a period of low clouds Sunday morning, but confidence wasn't high enough to put any categorical changes based on forecast dewpoint depressions near the surface, but cannot completely rule out some low clouds tonight.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 234 PM PDT Sat Oct 3 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Night and morning low clouds and fog (patchy very light drizzle) at the coast north of Cape Blanco, and locally near Brookings during the next week.

* Inland high temperatures well above normal (10-20 degrees) through Thursday. Heat Risk is elevated for sensitive groups or those spending extended time outdoors without adequate cooling/hydration.

* Very warm and dry conditions bring elevated fire weather concerns due to near summer-like dryness. But, with weak winds, critical fire weather conditions are not expected. * A weak upper level disturbance moves in later Sunday into Monday morning with an increase of high clouds. But, also...for southern Lake and southern Modoc counties...some virga along with a low chance (~15%) for showers and a very low chance (<5%) of thunderstorms.

* Late next week, Friday into Saturday, gusty SW->NW winds accompany a cold front with a 10-25% probability of rain showers. Temperatures trend sharply lower, getting back to near or perhaps even below normal values by Saturday.

DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure aloft is bringing warmth more typical of mid-August than early October in southwest Oregon and northern California this weekend. The late summer-like warmth will be felt all across inland areas through much of next week. High temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above normal. The exception will be along the coast, where cooler temperatures and low clouds, fog and even a bit of drizzle are expected. Low clouds are likely to clear or partially clear in the afternoons each day, but then redevelop during the early evenings. Some of this low-level moisture could also result in low clouds/fog at times in the Umpqua Basin, though the clouds should break for sunnier afternoons. The warmth there (Roseburg) will be muted a bit with high temps about 10F above normal (low to mid 80s).

Tonight, and to some degree each of the next several nights, a strong inversion with light to breezy easterly winds (thermal trough) are expected over the ridges. This will result in moderate to locally poor ridgetop relative humidity recoveries. Daytime humidities will also be low (in the lower teens for valleys across northern California and east of the Cascades) resulting in elevated fire weather concerns. However, winds are expected to remain below critical levels.

Heat and dryness are the main concerns this weekend and next week. With the late-summer like temperatures and dryness, dry grasses and leaves will be present in many areas. Please be cautious if you're planning any activities that could create a spark. Additionally, the above normal temperatures this weekend will bring elevated HeatRisk to inland areas. HeatRisk is generally in the minor category, or elevated for those sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration. If you are sensitive to heat or spending extended time outdoors, take precautions. Seek shade and stay hydrated. Overnight/morning temperatures are expected to lower in the mid-50s for valleys west of the Cascades and in the 40s for valleys east of the Cascades which will help moderate HeatRisk.

We should note that a weak shortwave will move into northern California Sunday into Monday morning, then shift east of the area late Monday. This disturbance will bring some mid level moisture and elevated instability into far southeast areas (NE Cal), mainly Modoc, but also southern Lake County. Given the height of the moisture, above 600 mb and mainly above the freezing level, the most likely scenario is this will just bring high clouds/virga into the area. However, there is a slight chance of showers (15% or less) and a very low chance (<5%) for thunderstorms Sunday night/Monday morning.

Otherwise, expect a slightly weaker ridge pattern that restrengthens Tuesday to Thursday. With this pattern, models and ensembles are forecasting continued well above normal daytime temperatures with highs around 15 degrees above normal. Modest increases in SW breezes can be expected by Thursday afternoon in NE California and east of the Cascades.

Friday into next weekend, models are showing a decided end to the hot pattern with virtually all ensemble members showing a significant cooling trend, perhaps even sharply cooler (by Saturday). A strong upper trough and cold front will move in from the northwest. This could lead to a breezy to windy day Friday, especially in NorCal and east of the Cascades. A combination of strong winds/low RH could also result in an elevated fire weather concern. Models are still showing enough uncertainty in the timing and strength of the front, so PoPs for rain remain fairly low (mostly in the 10-25% chance range), but they have increased a bit since yesterday.

Beyond that, a very unlikely scenario showed up in the guidance this morning. The 12z deterministic ECMWF shows some of the moisture/energy from Hurricane Rachel getting involved in the pattern after Saturday and perhaps moving northward into California Sunday. While this scenario remains in the envelope of possibility, the probability that this moisture/energy reaches this far north is around or <5%. The vast majority of ensemble solutions keep the system well to our south. But, it'll be interesting to watch over the coming days. -Spilde

AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs...MVFR to IFR levels remain along parts of the Oregon coast and into the Umpqua Valley under lingering stratus, but satellite imagery shows these layers eroding at the start of the TAF period. Once these areas clear, VFR levels are expected across the area under passing high clouds into the afternoon. Coastal stratus is expected to return, bringing IFR/LIFR levels to North Bend and other coastal areas. Stratus could also briefly return to the Umpqua Valley early Sunday morning. Other areas look to remain at VFR levels through the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, October 3, 2026...A persisting thermal trough will bring gusty northerly winds and steep seas for much of the week ahead. For today, steep seas continue south of Cape Arago. Winds ease slightly early Sunday morning, bringing below advisory seas to inner waters while outer waters remain steep. The thermal trough strengthens into Monday, bringing more widespread gusty winds and steep seas to all waters.

Fluctuations in the thermal trough's strength and position may bring changes to where steep seas are through the week, but there is an agreement in guidance that some amount of steep seas will be present past midweek. A pattern change may bring active weather towards the end of the week, with some guidance also showing incoming long period westerly swell arriving at some point over the weekend. Confidence is not high enough in these outcomes to predict the sea state, but as this is the first signs of possibly meaningful long-period swell for the season, acknowledging it is worthwhile.

-TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376.