textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...16/06Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the TAF period. The exception will be over the marine waters and possibly along the coast where LIFR ceilings in marine stratus are possible. Confidence is higher for the marine waters as offshore flow could keep this layer just offshore tonight. There could be a brief period of LIFR conditions mainly north of Cape Blanco late tonight into Friday morning. Additionally, with gusty southeast winds prevailing over the higher terrain tonight, low level wind shear will remain a concern for the Medford terminal, lasting until about 15Z as another strong inversion develops and prevents those winds from reaching the surface. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland, however.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 413 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Very warm temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon and again Friday. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend.

* Dry, mild weather expected Sunday.

* A stronger low and front approach the coast Sunday night with modest rain chances Monday along the coast and offshore, but low chances for inland areas.

DISCUSSION...Through Friday, high pressure will remain in place with very warm temperatures and dry conditions. Highs are expected to be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal for inland areas. Coastal areas, which got warm today (82F at North Bend and 78F at Brookings as of 1 pm), will be a bit cooler Friday as onshore flow/marine influence gets back into the picture. Over the interior, breezy to gusty E-SE winds will persist over the mountains tonight into Friday morning. This will bring moderate to locally poor nighttime RH recoveries at higher elevations, and then low humidity for all areas during Friday afternoon. Some single digit minimum RH values are expected, especially in NorCal and east of the Cascades. This will bring elevated fire weather risk, so please be careful to avoid any unnecessary sparks.

Then, on Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will produce cloudier conditions across northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures are expected to be near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is some potential for breezy winds Saturday afternoon, especially along the coast and for areas east of the Cascades.

Sunday expect dry and mild conditions with morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades.

Low pressure and a cold front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs show the low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts southward Monday. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances are 30-50% for Monday/Monday night from the Cascades west (highest coast). Lower rain chances (10-30%) exist east of the Cascades and in NE California.

Tuesday into Wednesday, models continue to show the low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Thursday, October 15, 2026...Conditions improve today as winds weaken and seas become primarily dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells. A new swell will arrive around Saturday and push waves slightly higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.