textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* High pressure will continue to build into Thursday and Thursday night with more fog and freezing fog Thursday night.

* Temperatures trend warmer Friday into Saturday.

* Another cold front will bring wetting rain to locations west of the Cascades Saturday night into Sunday morning.

* The active weather pattern continues into next week.

DISCUSSION

Not a lot going on this morning other than the freezing fog east of the Cascades and some fog and low stratus closer to the coast. The freezing fog is the bigger issue as KLMT visibility is dropping below 1/4 a mile at times. Last night some wind seemed to push visibilities higher. We're not under a really strong ridge, so thinking the visibility could bounce around a bit this morning with a little wind, so we're not issue a freezing fog advisory. None the less, some surfaces could still be slick this morning.

A dissipating cold front is providing some lift over the region and the front actually kicked off a few showers near the coast. High pressure should be building into the day with 500 mb heights rising into 9Z Friday. However, models show a mix of mid level and high level clouds moving over the forecast area this afternoon and evening.

Fog and freezing fog should fill into the valleys yet again as this mini ridge sets up Thursday night. The rapid refresh ensemble forecast system (REFS) is showing scattered high cloud cover Thursday night into Friday morning. However, we've seen fog form many times under these thinner clouds over the last few days.

By Friday, a deeper southwest flow will set up over the region with the leading edge of an atmospheric river hitting Washington state and parts of British Columbia. This warmer flow should result in some warming temperatures by Friday and more notably into Saturday with highs in the upper 60's and perhaps some 70's within valleys west of the Cascades.

Heading into Sunday, models show a low deepening to the west of Canada. That low will launch a cold front into the Pacific Northwest by Saturday night. The cold front isn't that dynamically strong, although we'll see some gusty southerly winds along the coast in addition to wetting rain. The latest PoP forecast has a 90% chance of rain along the coast with those probabilities lowering farther to the east with dry conditions in Lake and Modoc Counties Sunday morning. We're not expecting any impacts with this rain during the weekend.

Heading into next week, we still have moderate to low confidence in the forecast. Ensembles are showing an active weather pattern, although where the atmospheric river and moisture hit is still in question. Some ensemble members show all the precipitation well to our north while others hit southern Oregon and northern California. Some ensemble members are definitely on the drier side with some light rain or no rain while others bring a heavier rain with 2 to 3 inches falling over 6 hours. In any case, the PoP forecast is pretty consistent in the 20-40% range for most of next week, although it does move a bit higher towards 60% by Thursday the 12th.

-Smith

AVIATION...05/12Z TAFS

We're watching some fog in the valleys this morning with Klamath Falls(KLMT) reporting visibility under 1/4 a mile. In other valleys fog may struggle to form due to some mid level ceilings and light wind. The wind was able to increase surface visibilities at times last night and that should hold true tonight as well. Otherwise, the fog and lower ceilings will burn off by the later morning hours with some more mid and high ceilings moving later today. VFR conditions are likely this afternoon into this evening with fog developing in the valleys again tonight.

MARINE...Updated 215 AM PST Thursday, November 5, 2026

Seas will remain high as a swell around 10 to 12 feet at 15 to 17 seconds moves through the waters. These conditions will be hazardous to smaller crafts through the weekend. The sea state will worsen around Sunday as another cold front could produce gale force winds. A low deepening in the gulf of Alaska should produce a swell around 16 feet at 13 to 16 seconds Sunday afternoon or evening.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.