textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* High pressure builds overhead for the rest of the week with highs peaking late week about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

* A mostly dry cold front arrives with cooler temperatures this weekend. * Precipitation chances are looking more likely early next week.

DISCUSSION

Looks like another night of frost across the region tonight as temperatures are falling through the 30's with clear skies and more light winds. This should be the last night for a while as temperatures move warmer through the week.

We'll see highs push back towards the climatological normals for this time of year later this afternoon. Medford will be around 74 and areas east of the Cascades will push into the lower 60's. Temperatures continue to move warmer through the week as the 500 mb heights build and peak around 591dm according to the GEFS, which is pretty healthy for a ridge around here and is the 97 to 99th percentile for mid October.

Temperatures start to peak around Thursday, which is when the GFS is showing a thermal trough along the coast and rather broad east flow off the Cascades at about 10 to 15 knots. Temperatures will hit the upper 80's and perhaps some lower 90's west of the Cascades with Brookings and Coos Bay also hitting the lower 80's. It's usually rare for Coos Bay to be as warm as Brookings, although can happen with this broader easterly flow events instead of the stronger north east flows we can get during thermal troughs.

The extreme forecast index(EFI) is predicting values around 0.8 around the Umpqua Valley, which tells us these temperatures near the end of the week are unusually high in the ensemble model climatology for our area. In addition, the high temperature record on Friday the 16th within Medford is at risk. We're still forecasting a high of 87, which is one degree under the 2022 record of 88. The record of 92 on the 15th appears to be too far out of reach. However, these thermal troughs can have a habit of being warmer than anticipated by the models.

Lastly, the 0Z ECMWF ensembles are predicting a change towards wetter conditions around next week Monday. Many ensembles(~70%) are showing at least some lighter rain for southern Oregon and northern California between the 19th and 20th. Our forecast is showing a 55% chance of 0.01 inches of rain between 0Z Monday the 19th and 6Z Tuesday the 20th. The probability of some rain over a 48 hour period is slight higher and closer to 60% based off the latest NBM probabilities. So not a guarantee of rain as some ensemble members are keeping us dry. Although odds are in our favor for some lighter rain in southern Oregon and northern California.

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

Some lower stratus is forming around North Bend early this morning. Whether that IFR or LIFR stratus builds over the airport this morning is still in question. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all other TAF sites farther inland.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Monday, October 13, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas will continue across the area. These conditions will be hazardous to small crafts today through Wednesday. Winds and waves will be highest south of Port Orford. Seas and winds lower Thursday into Friday. Waves increase again by Saturday and Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ023-024-026.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.