textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...28/18Z TAFs

IFR/LIFR stratus and fog at the coast and Coquille Valley is lifting and eroding this morning. The condition will improve to merely lingering patches of IFR/LIFR, mainly near Brookings in the late afternoon. Also, coastal areas will have gusty north breezes (~20-25 kt) this afternoon/evening.

Coastal IFR/LIFR will return this evening near Brookings, and from Cape Blanco northward, and continue overnight into Saturday morning. Meantime, the progression of stratus into the Umpqua Valley tonight will be more typical, slower and less extensive than it was last night. This includes patchy MVFR possible near Roseburg early Saturday morning, after 12Z.

Otherwise, conditions will remain VFR with gusty south to southwest afternoon winds (20-30 kt) this afternoon for areas east of the Cascades and in NE California. Also, isolated showers/thunderstorms could graze far SE sections of Modoc and Lake counties this afternoon/evening.

MARINE...Updated 800 AM PDT Friday, August 28, 2026

Relatively calm conditions with light north winds and low seas are expected through this morning. North winds increase this afternoon with steep seas developing south of Cape Blanco. These steep seas and gusty winds will persist through the weekend. Winds will be strongest each afternoon and early evening Friday through Sunday. Conditions are likely to improve Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 434 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Today: Chance (15-20%) for showers and thunderstorms over far eastern Modoc County and far southeast Lake County with lightning being the main threat.

* Temperatures are generally seasonable through Monday, except cooler/slightly below normal temperatures on Saturday.

* A low pressure system next week may bring rainfall and cooler temperatures. Rainfall chances increasing midweek and continuing through later parts of next week, especially for coastal and westside areas.

DISCUSSION...Today, an upper level jet is located over the region with a closed upper level low centered to the northwest over British Columbia and an area of high pressure centered to the southeast over the Desert Southwest. With moisture advecting into southeast portions of the area, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop late today during peak heating when convective temperatures will be reached. Although precipitable water has increased, we not expecting a lot of rain with any showers or thunderstorms that develop. So, the main threat will be lightning along with a potential for isolated gusty winds. The better chances for storms will remain east and southeast of our area.

On Saturday, the low moves over the Pacific Northwest, bringing cooler conditions with slightly below normal high temperatures. Dry weather is expected, with precipitation remaining well to the east.

On Sunday, the upper trough will shift eastward and expect a zonal pattern over the area. This pattern will result in near normal temperatures.

An trough pattern is expected to develop just off the coast on Monday. Then a stronger low is forecast to move down from the Gulf of Alaska and into the region Wednesday into Thursday. There is some uncertainty in the ensembles with the timing, orientation and strength of this system. Overall, the pattern favors troughing with cooler temperatures and increased rainfall chances, especially from the Cascades west. There is significant variability in ensemble solutions on the amount of rainfall. So, we will continue to monitor this for the potential of light/moderate rain. Instability is weak so there are only low chances for thunderstorms but given the variability in the forecast, there is potential for this to change. Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest changes.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday, August 28, 2026...Aside from a brief period of zonal flow with slight warming and drying on Sunday, upper level troughing will dominate the weather through the forecast period. This will maintain gusty afternoon/evening winds, though generally weaker than yesterday/recent days. Additionally, RHs will trend higher as temperatures continue trending cooler, which will limit critical fire weather conditions.

Meanwhile, onshore flow will generally maintain moderate to good recoveries with nightly marine pushes for coastal zones.

A slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast today for southeast portions of the area, mainly far southeastern FWZ 625 and far eastern FWZ 285. Models continue to show an area of remnant tropical moisture moving into northeast/central CA and northwest NV, which is expected to clip the southeastern portions of the area and some showers and low chances (15-20%) for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. The better instability and increased chances for thunderstorms will remain south and east of the area. Drier air in the mid- levels returns Saturday and thunderstorms shift eastward.

A stronger trough arrives next week, bringing cooler/below normal temperatures, higher humidities and the potential for rainfall. The best chances for rainfall will be along the coast and from the Cascades west. Instability is week and there are low chances (5-10%) for thunderstorms during this period. However, there remains variability in the models on the forecast for this period. So will continue to monitor this period for changes.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.