textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

AVIATION...08/18Z TAFs

Conditions are VFR area wide late this morning. Some high cirrus mixed with a thin veil of very high level smoke is giving the sky a milky appearance at times. Offshore flow should keep most areas VFR tonight into Wednesday morning, though localized MVFR/IFR in fog or low stratus are possible in sheltered valleys for a few hours around sunrise. Guidance is also showing about a 40% chance of fog/low ceilings at North Bend (KOTH). We've prevailed SKC in the TAF due to the persisting offshore NE winds. There could be some lower ceilings/fog in the Coquille Basin or at the beaches. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 401 AM PDT Tue Sep 8 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* A Frost Advisory is in effect valleys and basins east of the Cascades early this morning. Frost is not expected to be as widespread as yesterday morning though.

* Warmer and drier conditions are expected through Thursday, with peak warming on Wednesday. Upper slopes and ridges may see breezy easterly flow and moderate to poor overnight recoveries, especially from the Cascades west Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

* Breezy to gusty westerly winds are expected Thursday afternoon/evening east of the Cascades.

* Cooler temperatures develop Friday into the weekend. Chances for rain are expected on Saturday, mainly along the coast, into the Umpqua Basin and over the Southern Oregon Cascades.

DISCUSSION... This morning, areas of frost may develop in valleys east of the Cascades due to linger cool air with a subsidence inversion, light winds and clear skies. However, frost will not be as widespread as yesterday morning. Localized low clouds and fog may develop this morning, especially along the coast and in coastal valleys, north of Cape Blanco. Low clouds and fog will clear in the mid to late morning.

High pressure will build in today and Wednesday bringing a warming and drying trend. Today, high temperatures will be slightly above normal across the area. Then, on Wednesday, temperatures peak with highs around 10 degrees above normal. The National Blend of Models and guidance supports highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across inland valleys. Ridges and upper slopes along the coast will see moderate recoveries and breezy easterly winds this morning. Then, tonight and Wednesday morning, expect moderate to locally poor recoveries and breezy easterly winds, especially from the Cascades west.

On Thursday, temperatures will trend slightly less warm but remain above normal across inland areas. A low well to the north will bring a dry front into the area late Thursday with a potential for gusty westerly winds, especially for areas east of the Cascades.

On Friday, a low pressure will shift south and approach the coast then move inland over the area on Saturday. This will bring a return to near or slightly below normal temperatures on Friday and cooler, below normal temperatures, on Saturday. As the low moves overhead on Saturday, expect showers to develop over portions of southwest Oregon. The National Blend of Models supports a 20-40% chance of showers from the coast into the Umpqua Basin and Southern Oregon Cascades. Additionally, there is a low chance (10-20%) for thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly across Douglas County. There are lower chances (10-20%) for showers in Josephine, Jackson, northern Klamath and northern Lake counties. Elsewhere, in northern California and southern Klamath/Lake counties expect a very low chance of showers (5-10%). Of note, the chances for showers have trended higher with recent model runs. We will continue to monitor this with future model runs.

This low is forecast to shift eastward on Sunday. So, expect lingering cool temperatures but dry weather.

AVIATION...08/12Z TAFs...Areas of LIFR/IFR conditions are present in coastal valleys and along the coast north of Cape Blanco, but offshore flow could limit its duration and extent. There is only medium confidence for brief IFR at North Bend (OTH). All other areas should remain VFR throughout the next 24 hours, although some localized MVFR/IFR in fog or low stratus are possible in sheltered valleys.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, September 8, 2026...Gusty north winds and steep wind seas south of Port Orford will expand northward to Cape Arago through Tuesday morning, then across all of the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night. Areas of very steep seas are expected to develop Tuesday evening for the waters south of Port Orford beyond 10 nm from shore. Winds briefly diminish Wednesday but steep seas will linger. Then, gusty north winds and steep seas will likely return on Thursday, mainly for areas south of Cape Blanco.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ376.