textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

*Warm today with a breezy afternoon. Highs west of the Cascades will be within a few degrees either side of normal, while most East Side areas and NE Cal will be about 5-10F above normal.

*Upper trough swings through tonight/Saturday. Breezy again in the afternoon/evening, but 5-10F cooler west side and 10-15F cooler east side. Chance of showers coast north of Blanco and in NW Douglas County. No rain elsewhere.

*Much colder Saturday night into Sunday morning with frost/freeze potential east of the Cascades and in NorCal. Colder west side valleys (Illinois/Applegate/Shasta/Scott) could drop into the mid to upper 30s. Sunny, less breezy and milder Sunday afternoon.

*Strong upper trough brings cooler conditions Mon-Tue with a chance of showers that could linger into Wed.

*Long range guidance hinting at a potential heat wave late next week and next weekend (Jun 12-16).

DISCUSSION

Marine stratus will be mostly at the coast north of Blanco and into portions of the Umpqua Basin this morning. Today, with general WSW aloft, daytime highs will be very near to just slightly above normal for early June, with the typical breezes in the afternoon. Cloud cover increases this afternoon as the next upper level trough, currently sitting just offshore of British Columbia, approaches the region. The trough will dig farther into the Pacific Northwest Saturday, and while the center of low itself passes over Washington, the trough axis will swing over our area tonight into Saturday. This will bring a deeper marine push Saturday morning and another round of gusty winds Saturday afternoon (below any thresholds). There's a slight chance for light showers over northern Coos and Douglas counties (perhaps some drizzle along the rest of the coast). Afternoon high temperatures will be about 5-10F lower (compared to today) west of the Cascades and 10-15F lower over the east side.

Areas in Modoc, Lake, and Klamath counties will be under frost/freeze concerns again Saturday night, with overnight temps potentially dropping below freezing in northern Klamath and Lake counties. Overall, temperatures Saturday will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Even the typically colder west side valleys like the Illinois, Applegate, Shasta and Scott valleys, could see temps bottom out into the mid to upper 30s.

Once the trough departs to the east, seasonal warmth returns under shortwave ridging Sunday, then another trough arrives late Monday into Tuesday. The nature of this trough varies greatly across the model suites in both timing and track, with some passing the center of a closed low over Washington then into the northern Rockies, and others digging farther south to bring the low over Central California and the Great Basin. Both scenarios will likely result in cool temperatures (by June standards), but vary greatly in precipitation chances and nature: the northerly track trending more towards light shower chances, while a southerly track leads to much higher shower chances along with potential thunderstorms. Of course, the variance in track will mean quite a quite variable QPF. Some areas could see wetting rainfall, while others, maybe not so much.

Cooler weather and shower risk could last into Wednesday, then things dry out late next week. Long range guidance is showing potential for ridge amplification along or just off the West Coast Jun 13-16th, which could result in the region's first significant and extended heat wave. Right now, model probabilities of greater than 90F here in Medford exceed 50% by Saturday with an 80% chance both Sun/Mon. A small percentage (15-20%) of ensemble members (primarily driven by the ECMWF) even show >100F. But there's still enough uncertainty in the strength of the ridge to say much more than that. -Spilde

AVIATION...05/06Z TAFS

Clear skies are present across the area expect southern Coos County near Powers where stratus is developing. Overnight (10-12Z) MVFR conditions due to lower clouds are expected to develop, and areas in Lincoln City are already seeing this. This will occur mainly at the coast, but scattered MVFR ceilings are possible into the Umpqua Basin near Roseburg early in the morning. These clouds will decrease through the morning. Winds will be diurnally driven with speeds strengthening into the afternoon.

MARINE...Updated 235 AM PDT Friday, June 5, 2026

North winds and seas will lower today, but increase again Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, especially south of Gold Beach. South winds will accompany a front Sunday night into Monday, along with a chance of rain. Then, light to moderate north winds return Tuesday and Wednesday. A thermal trough could bring stronger north winds and steep to very steep seas Thursday into next weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ356-376.