textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs

A weak frontal system will bring clouds and a few light sprinkles to far NW sections (near or just north of North Bend) into this evening, but VFR should prevail. Inland areas will be VFR through this evening with light winds. Tonight, coastal areas could see some lower clouds toward morning, perhaps a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings. Other than patchy morning valley fog in the Umpqua Basin, VFR should prevail there and across the rest of the interior as well. A stronger front will bring breezy conditions along the coast and east of the Cascades Saturday afternoon/evening, then perhaps some light rain and lower ceilings west of the Cascades Saturday night. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 406 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Overall, this is a low impact forecast over the next 7 days

* Above normal temperatures today and tomorrow will be followed by more seasonable temperatures

* A cold front is expected late Saturday afternoon that will bring rainfall to areas along and near the coast in addition to areas north of the Umpqua divide through Sunday morning

* An active period of weather starts Monday and will likely continue through much of next week with rain and potentially strong winds being the main impacts

DISCUSSION...

Upper levels indicate a ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area today and Saturday resulting in above normal temperatures. Saturday will be the warmest day in the forecast with temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for many locations. For perspective, Medford is normally around 58 for a high on November 7th and we are currently forecasting a high around 67.

The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will slide east on Saturday as a trough moves eastward over the Pacific towards the PacNW. A front will pass through the region starting late Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts will be highest along and near the coast. Father inland, areas in the Umpqua Basin could see some of these higher amounts as well, especially the higher terrain of eastern Douglas County. Very little to no rain is expected east of the Cascades as the front washes out over land. Westside valleys will likely miss out on much of the accumulation, but light amounts are expected. 24 hour totals will range from about a few hundredths to upwards near half an inch. Westside valleys will be on this lower end, while areas along/near the coast will see the higher amounts, especially areas in Curry County. The probability for rainfall amounts to be 0.50" or greater over 24 hours is about 80%-90% for much of Curry County. Elsewhere, these probability are much lower for 0.50" or greater but generally range from about 20% to 60% north of the Umpqua divide and along/near the coast in both Douglas and Coos counties. It will also be breezy Saturday afternoon ahead of the front. Areas along/near the coast have a 40%-90% probability of 35mph or greater gusts. The more exposed coastal ranges having the higher probabilities. Our typical windier eastside areas will have a 20%-50% for 35mph or greater gusts around Summer Lake and generally higher elevations on the eastside like the Warners.

With the passage of the front, the upper levels will remain in a southwesterly flow pattern through middle of next week. During this stretch, we will have small embedded shortwaves within this flow that will help produce light rainfall for mainly westside areas Monday through Wednesday. Overall, not expecting much rainfall, but areas along/near the coast will have the highest probabilities for accumulation, especially Curry County. However, amounts are not expected to bring much--if any--impacts to the forecast area.

By Thursday, an elongated trough will develop over the west coast. Eventually a closed low develops as the flow splits off Friday. The result will be a larger broader area of cyclonic rotation over the Gulf of Alaska. Uncertainty remains in the extend for Thursday onward. That said, there is a signal for later parts of the week to experience more rainfall and strong winds with the potential for higher elevation snowfall.

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

This cycle will be noted with mostly high clouds, especially inland areas where VFR is likely, but there will remain a chance for low clouds this morning for areas along the coast. Conditions will improve this afternoon along the coast, but expected low clouds again tonight with IFR conditions sitting around 70% for KOTH Saturday morning. Otherwise, generally expecting light wind speeds through this cycle.

MARINE...Updated 315 AM PST Friday, November 6, 2026...Seas will remain high and steep around 12 to 17 feet at 14 to 17 seconds moves through the waters today, creating conditions hazardous to small craft. Low pressure will move through the NE Pacific and onshore into British Columbia Saturday into Sunday. South winds will increase in our waters Saturday with Gales possible for the northern outer waters. Elsewhere, expect small craft conditions to persist with a combination of swell and steep wind waves. A stretch of high to very high seas is expected late Saturday night and Sunday after the associated cold front moves onshore. Winds will diminish during this time frame, but seas will increase to a peak of 14-19 ft with the period increasing from 13 to 17 seconds Sunday evening. Swells will gradually subside Monday.

BEACH HAZARDS...Long period westerly swells moving through the coastal waters will have enough energy to produce an elevated risk of sneaker waves on SW Oregon beaches (Douglas, Coos and Curry counties) through tonight.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can knock people off their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

In addition, a high to very high swell is expected to arrive at the coast late Saturday night into Sunday. Breaker heights in the surf zone could reach 22-25 feet. Be on the lookout for potential high surf advisories.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for PZZ350-370.