textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

Conditions along the coast should improve to a SCT deck this afternoon for KOTH, but expecting IFR conditions are likely (60%) to return tonight with another marine layer push. There is some uncertainty to how far inland this push will be, and there is a chance (30%) we could see MVFR conditions at KRBG, but confidence was not high enough to include this mention at this time. Instead, hinted at this possibility with a SCT deck around 1000 feet. Otherwise, expecting plenty of sunshine for inland sites with typical diurnal breezes across the region.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 605 AM PDT Fri May 22 2026/

SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry weather continues through the weekend. A cold front will bring some rain to the region during the afternoon of Memorial Day. The threat of showers will persist through much of next week as a low hovers around the region.

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures will remain high today, even with some onshore flow developing later in the evening as a thermal trough moves further inland. Even with a more zonal flow pattern developing into the weekend, temperatures will remain elevated with highs in the upper 80's here in Medford on Sunday. Some embedded shortwaves in this flow will bring a very low chance of showers Saturday afternoon. We should also see a fair amount of cloud cover along the coast between Friday and Sunday as this thermal trough retreats farther inland. We usually see plenty of coastal stratus shoot up the coast when these thermal troughs move inland and the NBM does have this in the forecast. Not a huge impact, although temperatures could be cooler along the coast this weekend.

Things begin to change up on Monday as a trough in the Pacific approaches the Oregon coast. Ensembles are in really good agreement with the timing of the cold front moving onshore during the afternoon and evening of Memorial Day. It looks like the cold front initially moves onshore between 18Z and 21Z on Monday with the probability of precipitation peaking between 0Z and 6Z with some grid points showing PoPs around 90%. Overall, early Monday should stay dry, although plan for some lighter rain in the afternoon hours. Looking at the forecast soundings, thunderstorms look unlikely as there isn't much instability and most of it is between the 0C to -10C layer, so not much charge generation in the clouds.

As this cold front and trough approach the region, wind speeds near the surface will also increase. 700mb winds are around 30 to 35 knots during peak mixing, so still short of wind advisory thresholds east of the Cascades. Overall, pretty low impact weather unless one has outdoor activities on Memorial Day afternoon.

With more cloud cover on Monday, temperatures will trend down notably compared to what we'll see this weekend. Those temperatures will trend even lower by Tuesday once the colder air funnels into the region.

This low will likely become cutoff and stall out around south central Oregon/north western Nevada/northeastern California. The end result should be sporadic cloud cover through the week and the continued chance of some showers or perhaps some thunderstorms. The probabilities are highest on Tuesday, although they generally lower through the week as there are questions about moisture and how this low evolves through the week.

Overall, the weather definitely becomes more active next week, although the impacts are not extreme. We do have some fire weather threats noted in the discussion below on Monday, especially around Lake County.

-Smith

AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs...Along the coast, areas of IFR ceilings will continue through this morning near Coos and Douglas Counties. Offshore flow will keep the coast clear near Curry County this morning. More IFR coastal stratus is anticipated along the coast later tonight.

Inland, expect VFR levels with clear skies through the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM Friday, May 22, 2026...Conditions will remain hazardous to smaller crafts through Friday night due to gusty north winds and high and steep seas. The thermal trough will weaken by Sunday and a cold front will move through the waters by Monday.

This cold front will bring some gusty south winds and a high and steep seas to the waters on Monday night into Tuesday. These seas will be hazardous to smaller crafts as wave heights increase up to 13 to 15 feet.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350- 370.