textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging is centered over Baja California with the ridge axis extending northward along the West Coast. This is bringing drier and mild weather to SW Oregon and northern California today that will continue into Friday. Low-level moisture will bring some low clouds and fog to the valleys again tonight into Friday morning, especially west of the Cascades. And since our area is on the northern fringes of the upper ridge, we'll also have a fair amount of mid and/or high clouds. Even so, PoPs remain very low (<10%), so precipitation is not expected.

After the fog Friday morning, afternoon temperatures will be about 5-10F above normal for most locations. While NBM is showing 62F for a high here in Medford, if we were to get more sunshine (low clouds/fog break earlier, high clouds move away), there is about a 20-40% chance of a high>=65F (warmest 10% or 90th percentile of solutions show 68F).

Meanwhile, a cut off low is spinning out over the Pacific about 1000 miles to the WSW of Brookings. This low will gradually eject eastward and move toward the coast this weekend. Warm advection in advance of this system will send a warm front over the area on Saturday. Rain chances increase from SW to NE during Saturday morning with the highest probabilities of rain in the afternoon/evening (60-80%). So, a fairly high probability of rain everywhere, but amounts look to be on the light side. Most areas are shown to have at least a hundredth or two, with 0.05-0.15" for the west side valleys and perhaps 0.15-0.30" over far SW sections and in the mountains. While there is a chance precip starts as snow in the highest mountains and in the Highway 97 corridor north of Chiloquin, with the warming expected aloft, snow levels are expected to be at or surge to 7000+ ft, so little or no winter impacts are expected. High temps generally slightly lower compared to Friday, but still mild. We evaluated thunder potential with this system as the warm front lifts north and the air mass becomes a bit more unstable by late Saturday afternoon/evening. Soundings today are showing generally less than 200 J/KG and 850 LIs generally 0 or 1C. Not very impressive. There could be some healthy showers with perhaps a brief downpour or even some graupel. But, it appears the best instability will remain to our south and east, closer to the Trinity Alps/Sac Valley and over to the Sierra. Probability of lightning across Siskiyou and Modoc counties is generally 10% or less with mentionable thunder chances down toward Trinity/Shasta/Lassen County. We'll continue to evaluate and adjust accordingly.

Models show a bit of break Saturday night, then the low offshore moves onshore Sunday into Sunday night. This will bring another round of mostly light, low-impact precipitation with high snow levels (6500 ft+). Latest guidance is showing a little more precipitation over the mountains (compared to Saturday's system), but overall, fairly similar on amounts elsewhere. Either way, some light rain at times this weekend, but probably not a wash out.

Light rain chances linger into Monday, but with most guidance showing the low headed into the Great Basin, we expect chances to diminish through the day. Upper ridging then brings dry weather Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The pattern looks to remain progressive in WNW flow aloft Tuesday through the end of next week. So, this means no huge precipitation-makers are on the horizon, but at least a couple of troughs will swing through. One trough looks to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a break, then another one late Friday into Saturday. The one Wednesday shows snow levels of 4500-5000 feet, so some snow is possible (a few to several inches) in the mountains, especially from Highway 140 northward in the Cascades. Depending on timing, there could be some minor winter impacts. Also, there's probably an uptick in westerly (becoming NW) winds. The one toward next weekend is still quite a ways out there, so lots of variability in the guidance, though models show the trough sharpening as it swings through and into the Great Basin.

AVIATION...26/18Z TAFS

IFR/MVFR ceilings persist this morning for the West Side Valleys, with VFR conditions prevailing for all other areas. Expect improvement to VFR by 19z-21z, lingering longest in the Illinois Valley. VFR will prevail through the TAF period for most locations, including along the coast where offshore (easterly) flow will limit fog development. Areas of LIFR/IFR conditions are likely to return to some West Side Valleys tonight, though there is some uncertainty on the extent due to increasing mid/high level clouds that can limit fog development. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Thursday, February 26, 2026

Breezy north to northeast winds will persist through the end of the week. Seas look to remain below advisory criteria today into early Friday, but there could be brief periods of isolated steep seas tonight beyond 10 nm from shore. North to northeast winds increase across all areas Friday afternoon, and this will combine with increasing northwest swell to produce steep seas area wide Friday evening into Saturday morning. Conditions improve late Saturday into Sunday as winds ease, and sub-advisory conditions are expected to persist through early next week. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory 4 PM PST Friday to 1 pm PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.