textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

1) Slight cooling today will be the start of a cooling trend. But, conditions today will largely resemble those of the past few days. This includes areas of valley fog, mainly west and north of Jackson County, that will gradually dissipate during the morning and return again late this evening into Saturday morning.

2) An honest to goodness cold front with increasing clouds at the coast Saturday morning and rain (of around 0.10 to 0.20 inches) for the coast and Coast Range during Saturday afternoon.

3) A developing shortwave along the slow-moving cold front will bring enhanced rainfall at the coast Saturday night, gradually spreading into the central Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg. Additional amounts of up to 0.75 inches for the coast, with up to 0.25 inches (mainly late) for central Douglas County.

4) Snow levels remain above 6500 feet on Sunday with precipitation spreading to the Cascades and northern Klamath County (lightest amounts in the Shasta Valley). This includes a focus for rain from the coast to the Interstate 5 corridor, with increasing rain chances for the Rogue Valley, particularly for Sunday afternoon.

5) Heaviest precipitation for the Cascades from late Sunday afternoon through the evening, producing several inches of snow. But, with the bulk of this activity in the high country, occurring above the major passes as snow levels fall from 7000 feet to around 5000 feet in southern Oregon. This will include a few inches of snow in the Mount Shasta region above 5500 to 6000 feet.

6) The focus for precipitation shifts east of the coast during Sunday evening with light rain also expected to develop east of the Cascades. A few post-frontal showers/snow showers could linger near the coast, Cascades, and Warner Mountains late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Snow levels will continue to fall Sunday night with up to an inch of snow as low as 4500 feet late Sunday night (including Lake of the Woods, northern Klamath County, and east side passes). When all is said and done, 1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain is forecast for the coast, 0.25 to 1.50 inches for west side valleys (with lowest amounts for the Rogue and Shasta valleys), around 0.50 to 1.50 inches of precipitation for the Cascades (initially/partially as rain before 3 to 8 inches of snow for the higher terrain including Crater Lake), and 0.15 to 0.75 inches for the east side.

7) A break for most (the remainder) of Monday and Monday night with areas of mainly west side valley fog developing Monday night.

8) The next trough most likely tracking eastward into northern and central California on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with close to half of ensemble members showing at least a brush of its northern edge to bring measureable precipitation to southern portions of Siskiyou and Modoc counties. The highest probability is for ridging between troughs to provide a dry break for all of our area around Wednesday into Thursday.

9) Uncertainty regarding the track and timing of a broader upper level trough over the northern Pacific late in the week. This could be a relatively weak system with a high probability of measureable precipitation around Friday, and snow levels around 4000 to 5000 feet.

AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs

Conditions will mostly remain VFR this morning, with variable amounts of high clouds. But, LIFR valley fog has developed in the Umpqua, Coquille, Illinois, and Upper Rogue valleys. This includes Roseburg and Grants Pass. This LIFR is expected to dissipate during the morning, with VFR by the afternoon. The high clouds will then exit our area during the afternoon. A very similar scenario of mainly westside valley LIFR fog is expected late this evening into Saturday morning.

Mid and high level clouds will arrive at the coast Saturday morning, ahead of lower clouds and rain on Saturday afternoon.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, February 6, 2026

Steep west swell will persist today, then south winds increase tonight into Saturday with the approach and arrival of a cold front. This front will linger and strengthen on Sunday, continuing to produce gusty south winds, steep seas, and low visibility conditions in rain. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday afternoon. But, steep seas may persist through Monday evening. Improving conditions are forecast to follow Tuesday into Wednesday.

BEACH HAZARDS

An incoming west to southwest long period swell will produce a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast through this evening, with the highest risk early this morning, and secondarily with the incoming high tide this afternoon. The next high tide will occur roughly around 2 to 3 PM PST. The threat, while moderate, should be emphasized due to the pleasant and warmer than normal weather.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther up beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.