textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Slight chance of a thunderstorm in easternmost Douglas and northernmost Klamath counties into this evening.

* Otherwise, mainly dry weather expected through Thursday with slightly above normal warmth and typical afternoon breezes.

* Low pressure moves northward offshore Friday with an associated upper trough swinging through Saturday. This brings a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, gusty, mainly afternoon and evening winds along with a cooling trend.

* Dry, warm weather returns Sunday.

DISCUSSION

A weak upper air disturbance is passing through the area today and this has resulted in quite a bit of cloud cover over the forecast area. As a result, convective development has been muted. Still, some instability exists out there this afternoon, focused near the mountains (Cascades and Siskiyous). As the higher clouds thin out, there could be some late afternoon/evening cumulus development. There's a low to slight chance (5-15%) of thunderstorms with the best chance near/north of Crater Lake in easternmost Douglas (east of Toketee) and northernmost Klamath (Chemult) counties.

Upper ridging over the SW U.S. will amplify a bit through midweek with broad upper troughing offshore consolidating into a closed low. This will bring above normal warmth to most areas through Thursday with highs mostly 85-95F, though peaking at 90-100F on Thursday. Nightly stratus intrusions and morning fog along the coast will keep it cooler there (highs in the 60s/low 70s).

The low offshore will get a kick north-northeastward Friday into Saturday as it gets absorbed into the westerlies. Models have been waffling back and forth with respect to thunderstorm chances in our area as this low lifts northward - will it be close enough to the coast so that forcing is better or far enough offshore that most of the forcing stays offshore or to our north? There should at least be some moisture and instability, so there's a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday. In addition, increasing pressure gradients should lead to enhanced afternoon/evening breezes. Initially, humidity will be quite low over the East Side and in NorCal. Gusty wind/low RH may overlap Friday afternoon/evening resulting in elevated to near critical fire weather concerns. The associated upper trough should swing through on Saturday. By then, most of the moisture will lift to the north (slight chance may linger across northern counties), but gusty afternoon/evening breezes could persist. Either way, we should see a cooling trend Fri/Sat compared to the mid week warmth.

It should dry out and turn warmer again Sunday with the flow aloft turning more into the south Monday into mid next week. This could increase chances for t-storms again. -Spilde

AVIATION...18/06Z TAFs

LIFR conditions will continue along the coast tonight and linger into the morning hours. Some clearing is possible by the afternoon with lower ceilings lingering just offshore. Otherwise, VFR is expected for inland areas through the TAF period.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Monday, August 17, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep, hazardous seas, highest during the afternoons and evenings are expected south of Cape Blanco through Wednesday evening. Conditions are expected to improve late in the week. The strongest winds are expected during Tuesday afternoon and evening. Conditions are expected to improve late in the week. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.