textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs

LIFR conditions south of Gold Beach and MVFR conditions north of north of Cape Blanco will persist through the morning with gradual lifting and clearing in the afternoon. Then, IFR will redevelop in similar places along the coast this evening around 03z.

All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period. Gusty afternoon and evening winds are expected area wide today, strongest east of the Cascades (gusts 20-30 mph).

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 324 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Trough approaching the Pacific Northwest today into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-35 mph) through Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring a Red Flag Warning for much of Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake counties (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday).

* A thunderstorm risk develops early next week. Best chances on Tuesday, and east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side.

* Currently no signals for sharp warm ups or heat waves. High temperatures hovering around 5 to 7 degrees above normal (mid- upper 90s for West Side Valleys and upper 80s-low 90s for the East Side) through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION...Forecast confidence/model agreement is high through Monday. The upper level pattern transitions today as high pressure to the south moves eastward into the Great Basin, then amplifies on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward today into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tight pressure gradients. This pattern will bring multiple days of strong, gusty winds to the region today through Sunday when gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 35 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions are expected east of the Cascades and across the Modoc starting today and continuing through Sunday, with the strongest winds/lowest RHs expected Saturday. The parent low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, but a frontal boundary/energy gets left behind, maintaining tight pressure gradients. Guidance maintains another day of gusty winds (25-30 mph), and although humidities do tick upward some, it will be another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough and the flow will turn more south to southwest heading into the early part of next week, bringing us an increasing threat for thunderstorms. There is a potential for thunderstorms that is greater than zero, as early as Sunday afternoon. Convection is expected to be capped by warm air aloft over at least southwest Oregon. Weak instability and an influx of mid-level moisture may produce a few cells from northern California into south central Oregon. Mid and upper level moisture increases Monday, and a shortwave progged to move through the region combined with some weak instability brings the potential for thunderstorms east of the Cascades (east of Highway 97 corridor) Monday afternoon. While this is where most of the guidance agrees on thunder potential, if the shortwave tracks farther west, thunderstorm potential would also shift as well.

Tuesday is looking more likely for the better/more widespread chances of thunderstorms. While models disagree on details of the upper level pattern (cut off low along 40N within the EC suite, open trough along 130W-GFS), the general picture remains the same between the two: upper level trough over northeastern Pacific, strong ridge over central CONUS = continued southerly flow over the region. Mid- level moisture will continue to increase Monday night into Tuesday and instability increases Tuesday, especially along/east of the Cascades and along/south of Siskiyous. This will bring a more widespread threat of thunderstorms, potentially reaching as far west as the Rogue Valley. Given the flow aloft should be more southwesterly, this should limit convection potential for areas north and west of Jackson County, but again, details will likely continue to fluctuate, so stay tuned for updates. This seems like a pattern where we likely won't be confident in location details until the time frame reaches the high resolution models, which won't capture that until at least Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Model disagreement continues for the latter half of the week. GFS remains the more progressive solution with the open trough while the EC is slower due to the cut off low. The more progressive pattern turns the flow more southwesterly/westerly and would bring more stable conditions for the latter half of the week. Meanwhile, the EC maintains southerly flow, but is less obvious with shortwaves to trigger any convection. Among the entire model suite, there's about a 30% chance for either scenario, plus another where the cutoff low is farther south but still far enough offshore to lessen thunderstorm chances. There's a lot of subtle details here that with any shifts in model trends could either decrease or increase thunder potential for the latter half of next week.

One positive to this pattern, however, is we don't currently see any signals for sharp warm ups/heatwaves through the end of next week. Temperatures will hover around 5 to 7 degrees above normal for this time of year, equating to mid-upper 90s for West Side Valleys and upper 80s-low 90s for the East Side. Guidance indicates around a 20% chance of reaching 100 degrees here in Medford through Thursday, increasing to around 30-40% next weekend. Stay tuned for updates regarding thunder potential next week.

MARINE...Updated 1200 AM PDT Friday, July 10, 2026...Conditions have generally improved, especially north of Cape Blanco, but winds will remain gusty and seas will remain steep south of Cape Blanco through this evening. North winds will increase again early Sunday into Sunday evening, with steep seas likely returning to areas south of Cape Blanco. Improved conditions are expected to follow on Monday before the thermal trough strengthens again during the latter half of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 AM Friday, July 10, 2026...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns increase today and continue through the weekend, with a Red Flag Warning in place for portions of the East Side and the Modoc Plateau.

Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the afternoons and evening are expected today through the weekend. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens on Friday. When combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are expected across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 starting today and continuing through Sunday. Winds will ease overnight and recoveries will be in the good (Saturday morning) to moderate range (Sunday/Monday mornings). Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak on Saturday when humidities trend lower (low teens/single digits possible), winds increase some (25-40 mph) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. Despite this, critical conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon/evening.

A potential thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of next week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which could send monsoonal moisture into the region. See the discussion above for details/recent thinking on this thunderstorm pattern.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.