textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry conditions are expected across northern California and southern Oregon through the 7-day forecast period.

* Temperatures peak on Saturday and Sunday at 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with chances for more seasonal temperatures towards the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

An upper level ridge continues to dictate the forecast for northern California and southern Oregon for much of the week ahead. For today, daytime highs look to rise about 5 degrees from Wednesday's for most areas. This will put most coastal areas as well as the Umpqua Valley in the mid 70s to low 80s. Oddly enough, Brookings may see some cooling as a change in wind direction prevents warm downslope flow into the city. Other west side valleys as well as Modoc County basins look to be in the high 80s to low 90s. Lake and Klamath counties will be in the high 70s to low 80s. These temperatures to be present on Friday as well, with some minor fluctuations.

The ridge's influence expands northward over the weekend. Current forecasting has Siskiyou and Modoc counties staying at the same temperatures while Oregon counties warm by another 5 degrees.This will put west side areas in the low to mid 90s, while areas east of the Cascades look to be in the mid 80s through the weekend.

There's some agreement between models that temperatures decrease slightly into next week as the ridge flattens somewhat and zonal flow aloft develops. Long term meteogram guidance keeps precipitation out of the 7-day forecast period. There are some signals that a cold front may reach the area and bring some coastal showers in the 10-day range. While agreement in precipitation chances is slight to moderate, agreement in cooler temperatures is somewhat more complete. But either way, there's little expectation of impactful weather in the forecast period.

With that said, unimpactful weather does not mean unimportant weather. Warm temperatures that stay short of summer highs make outdoor activities appealing but ongoing dry conditions have offered little change from summer fire weather concerns. Dry grasses and leaves are still present in many areas, which may make fire ignition quick if sparks are created. Please be aware of these conditions if you choose to do any camping or outdoor maintenance in the near future. -TAD

AVIATION...01/12Z TAFs

While clear skies are present across the area early this morning, visibilities at North Bend have wandered between MVFR and LIFR due to fog. Periods of lower coastal visibilities continue early this morning, but sunrise should break up any lingering fog. VFR levels are expected across the area through the day with a slight chance of marine stratus development or additional fog towards the end of the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Thursday, October 01, 2026

As the thermal trough expands northward, steep seas will spread north to around Coos Bay today, with very steep seas persisting south of Gold Beach through tonight. Winds ease some Friday, but steep seas will persist from Coos Bay southward. As the thermal trough moves inland over the weekend, expect conditions to improve some, especially for the inner waters, though gusty north winds and steep seas are likely to be present well into next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.