textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Skies are clear over southern Oregon this afternoon with some coastal stratus hugging the coast. A thermal trough remains centered over southern Oregon west of the Cascades this afternoon with a light east wind off the Cascades and temperatures warming into the upper 90's. Heat risk remains elevated this afternoon and into Tuesday as highs push into the upper 90's in the valleys and upper 50's for lows. Overall, conditions are warmer than normal here for late June within southern Oregon and northern California.

By Tuesday, a short wave passing through will result in a very low chance of thunderstorms within northern California and east of the Cascades. The GFS and the convective allowing NSSL model like thunderstorm/shower activity, but a lot of other data is hinting against it with just cumulus buildups. Overall, we think thunderstorms have a ~5% chance of occuring as any convective available potential energy(CAPE) should be small as this mid level moisture around 600 mb arrives in the afternoon. A mid level cumulus field seems more likely.

The probability of thunderstorms increases on Wednesday as the trough is deeper and more of the ECMWF ENS members are showing spotty QPF over southern Oregon Wednesday afternoon, perhaps because of increased moisture or better lapse rates aloft. Therefore, we kept the isolated dry thunderstorm mentions east of the Cascades and in northern California Wednesday afternoon. It should be fairly breezy as well as the pressure gradient tightens by the late afternoon hours. Temperatures continue to trend a tad cooler Wednesday through Thursday.

The big change will come by Thursday night into Friday morning when a plume of moist air pushes in ahead of a cold front while a trough slides down from the north west. This will result in some lighter rain across the majority of southern Oregon during Friday. Models still differ with the amount and coverage of rain, although the Cascades and coast will likely see rain. We can't rule out thunderstorms in the afternoon hours east of the Cascades as the cooler moist air moves in. However, ensemble members vary notably about how much CAPE will be around Friday afternoon.

The last topic will be the cooler than normal temperatures for the weekend. Temperatures are showing up on the EFI with values around -0.85 east of the Cascades, which is a notable signature for cooler than normal temperatures in summer. Seems rather rare. Highs will be in the mid 60's around Chemult with some locations perhaps in the upper 50's. That seems pretty unrealistic with a high sun angle and spotty cloud cover, although that is what the NBM is going with near Chemult and Crescent by Saturday. Overall, temepratures will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than normal on Saturday. Temperatures then begin to warm up early next week.

AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs

IFR to LIFR ceilings remain along the Oregon coast as onshore flow is keeping marine stratus in place over North Bend(KOTH)

Inland areas look to stay at VFR levels through the TAF period. -Smith

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday, June 22, 2026

North winds will maintain strength through this evening. Isolated gale force gusts and very steep seas are possible south of Cape Blanco while steep seas persist across the northern outer waters. Northerly winds will continue Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions for most of the waters through at least mid- week. Conditions briefly improve on Thursday. Then a cold front is likely to bring light rain and a modest increase in fresh west- northwest swell Thursday night into Saturday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024-026.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-370- 376.