textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

High clouds continue to move through the region this afternoon. However, plenty of sun is still filtering through those higher clouds and we're anticipated to warm up into the lower 70's again today. A thermal trough is along the Cascades and that trough will retreat farther to the east during the afternoon hours. Overall, not much going on except for the above normal temperatures today.

The flow pattern will become more onshore by tomorrow, although temperatures will remain warm in the valleys with more upper 70's west of the Cascades and lower 70's east of the Cascades. The very low(10-20%) chance of thunderstorms persist on Monday. Looking at soundings the amount of convective available potential energy(CAPE) is low and only 100-200 J/kg. The SPC HREF calibrated thunder algorithm is going with a 10-20% chance, so felt that was fair. Don't be surprised if nothing happens and we just get some showers along and east of the Cascades Monday afternoon and evening.

By Tuesday morning, an upper level trough in Canada starts to dig down into Washington and Idaho with a cut off low off the coast of northern California. In addition, a cold front should be moving south during the day as well. This front stalls out over Central Oregon during the day with highs in the mid 70's in southern Oregon and mid 60's farther north of Eugene and Bend. The forecast has also trended drier compared to yesterday with a 5-10% chance of rain during the day. It seems 500 mb heights are amplifying ahead of the cut off low, so that cuts off moisture and enhances the sinking motion.

As that deeper trough digs further into the CONUS, the cutoff low remains off our coast by Wednesday. The chance of rain is about 20 to 30 percent over our forecast area, although that could very well trend lower depending on how this upper level low behaves. Most ensemble members also seem to be targeting northern California, so the probability for precipitation is higher there compared to parts of Oregon.

This cutoff low begins to travel south along the California coastline with some strong 500 mb divergence over our forecast area on Thursday. This should result in showers and perhaps more thunderstorms depending on CAPE. However, the PoP forecast suggests a wet day with a 50-60% chance of rain Thursday morning and afternoon.

The extended forecast is looking wet around Friday into next week with the vast majority of ensemble members with precipitation in the forecast.

-Smith

AVIATION...05/18Z TAFs

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period for most the area. LIFR ceilings are possible along the coast(KOTH) later tonight as some weak onshore flow develops.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Sunday, April 5, 2026

Relatively calm conditions are expected through this week. Another thermal trough develops around Tuesday afternoon, bringing a period of strong north winds and steep seas starting around Tuesday afternoon and potentially for most of the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.