textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

An upper trough is pushing a band of rain showers across west side valleys this afternoon. Amounts have been unimpactful, with Red Mound in Curry County getting half an inch of rain so far today. Inland areas have generally had 0.1 inches or less so far. Today's snow levels are at 7000-8000 feet, which will minimize snow impacts. Gusty southerly winds continue in the Shasta Valley, with gusts at Weed reaching 36 mph so far.

Showers will continue moving east this evening, with activity peaking as the trough splits early Monday morning. Southerly flow around the split low will bring moderate to heavy precipitation to Curry County, western Siskiyou County, and the Mount Shasta region (Including Weed, Mount Shasta City, and Dunsmuir) through Monday morning. Other west side areas may see periods of moderate precipitation, depending on how the low splits. Snow levels lower to 5000-6000 feet on Monday, which may allow for a stray snow showers over Cascades passes or on Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna, but overall snowfall should stay over higher terrain.

Seasonable conditions are expected during the day Tuesday, but a lingering cold air mass is keeping chilly overnight lows in the forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. East of the Cascades, lows in the mid to low 20s are expected, with temperatures in the teens possible in northern basins. West of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the low to mid-30s. Considering Medford specifically, lows have an 80% chance of being below 36 degrees (frost conditions) and a 50% chance of being below 32 degrees (freeze conditions). Frost/freeze conditions may be present in the Applegate and Illinois valleys as well, while the Umpqua Valley could see frost conditions.

Activity remains in the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday, although the details remain hazy. What was once a full low pressure system has become an upper trough in both the ECMWF and GFS deterministic imagery. Once again, this trough looks to split into a cutoff low but the models diverge on how that split happens. The ECMWF keeps the low over land, which would bring elevated southerly winds and more precipitation. The GFS moves the low offshore and has it traveling south, which would bring some light showers to Siskiyou County. Forecast snow levels for Wednesday-Thursday remain in the 4500-6000 foot ranges. Overall, both outcomes show little indication of hazardous conditions.

Beyond the trough, long term deterministic imagery has zonal flow over a pacific high for both models for Friday into next weekend. ECMWF imagery keeps the ridge flatter, allowing for moisture to flow to the area and bring the possibility of coastal and Cascades showers. In the absence of a lifting mechanism, other areas would see sparse activity at most. The GFS imagery has a more developed ridge that keeps area conditions dry. Meteogram guidance for both models seem to show more agreement on next weekend staying drier, with temperatures ~5 degrees above seasonal averages. -TAD

AVIATION...16/18Z TAFs

LIFR conditions linger in a few valleys west of the Cascades as some higher clouds move overhead. East of the Cascades, there are pockets of clear skies and that should continue for the next few hours. It looks like Roseburg might stay stuck in those low clouds all day as that atmosphere fails to mix. An approaching cold front will bring some lighter rain by this afternoon with heavier rain arriving during the evening hours. Look for more periods of IFR to LIFR conditions as this front moves through overnight. -Smith

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PST Sunday, November 16, 2025

Conditions hazardous to smaller crafts will persist into the evening hours as north winds begin to ramp up. Buoy conditions are not terrible right now with wave heights around 8 feet at 11 seconds. The increase in north west winds will push those wave heights higher overnight with seas peaking up to 15 feet. Seas will gradually lower by Monday evening, although conditions will still be hazardous to smaller crafts.

Conditions improve Tuesday into Wednesday, then another frontal system is expected late Wednesday into Thursday, though, confidence is low on the trajectory of the next storm system. Some guidance brings the system inland, while other guidance keeps it farther offshore as it moves southward and these differences will have implications on how strong winds will be. Despite the uncertainty in wind strength, confidence is higher for a heavy long period swell to build into the waters Thursday night into Friday.

-Smith/BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for PZZ376.