textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...06/06Z

VFR conditions prevail across the area this evening with some patchy fog/low clouds in the Coquille Basin and the lower portions of the Umpqua River Valley. With drying of the boundary layer today, VFR conditions should prevail for most locations south of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide and east of the Cascades. Can't completely rule out some patchy fog in the more narrow valleys west of the Cascades, or even some patchy "sunrise surprise" here in the Rogue Valley early Friday morning. Confidence is low, however, due to the drying from today and continued high level cloud cover tonight. Along the coast and into the Umpqua Divide, where moisture has been more consistent, patchy LIFR conditions are possible tonight, including at North Bend and Roseburg. Any lower conditions that develop, should clear to VFR by late Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 346 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* The influence of a Pacific ridge will bring a warming trend on Friday and Saturday. Daytime highs on Saturday look to be 5 to 15 degrees above normal, with the warmest temperatures in northern California valleys.

* A cold front arrives Saturday evening into Sunday morning. This front looks to bring rainfall to Oregon counties west of the Cascades as well as gusty winds to the coast and over terrain. Winds and rainfall ease by Sunday afternoon.

* A progressive pattern will bring chances for activity through next week, although confidence in the details remains slight. Overall, there are no signals for broad hazardous conditions.

DISCUSSION...An upper ridge over Pacific high pressure is being nudged over the area by active weather passing to the north, bringing stable conditions and a warming trend to most areas. By Saturday, daytime highs could be 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms. Coastal cities will generally stay in the low 60s, with Coos Bay possibly getting a little warmer. West side valleys look to be in the low to mid 70s while east side valleys and basins are forecast to be in the mid to high 60s.

A cold front arrives late Saturday, bringing gusty winds and rainfall to coastal areas. Activity moves inland over Oregon's west side areas early Sunday morning, with most rainfall expected over coastal terrain and the Cascades around Crater and Diamond lakes. Amounts are unimpactful, with those elevated areas forecast to get 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain and the areas in between getting less. The Cascades and east side terrain will see periods of gusty winds into Sunday morning. Winds and precipitation decrease by the afternoon, with cooler daytime highs from the cold air mass behind the front.

Broad agreement in the pattern for next week is starting to come into focus, but substantial uncertainty remains. Generally, southwest flow between a Pacific trough and a continental ridge will keep temperatures near or just above seasonal levels. Guidance shows three main chances for activity. A front approaches the area on Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, with the ECMWF showing a period of west side rainfall while the GFS expects that front to be drawn north and have no effect.

After some mild warming on Tuesday and Wednesday, energy deepens the Pacific trough and pushes it eastward towards the end of next week. There's some agreement that rainfall from the leading edge of this trough would be minimal and limited to coastal areas, as the eastward movement would push it against the continental ridge and drain that energy. Some ensemble members show this trough picking up more moisture and bringing higher rainfall amounts to Brookings and North Bend. A few models show the ridge having minimal influence and the energy bringing end-of-week rainfall as it pushes inland.

In the case where the ridge does weaken the Thursday-Friday trough, the trough is also able to push the ridge east. From here, ensemble members show low pressure systems bringing some kind of activity to the area just beyond the forecast period but with varying timing and positions. Looking at the big picture, these various features all approach from the west or southwest. With this approach, winter impacts should be limited. Current NBM guidance keeps snow levels in the 6000-8000 foot range. Brookings and North Bend have the most agreement on seeing rainfall with these features, while inland expectations vary and chances decrease to the east. Depending on its orientation, the Thursday-Friday trough may bring gusty southerly winds. But overall, nothing in guidance indicates highly hazardous conditions for the area at this point. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 215 PM PST Thursday, November 5, 2026...Seas will remain high and steep as westerly swell around 10 to 13 feet at 13 to 17 seconds moves through the waters tonight into Friday, creating conditions hazardous to small craft. Low pressure will move through the NE Pacific and onshore into British Columbia Saturday into Sunday. South winds will increase in our waters Saturday, probably remaining just below gale force Saturday afternoon and evening. Expect small craft conditions to persist with a combination of swell and steep wind waves. A stretch of high to very high seas is expected late Saturday night and Sunday after the associated cold front moves onshore. Winds will diminish during this time frame, but seas will increase to a peak of 15-20 ft with the period increasing from 13 to 16 seconds Sunday evening. Swells will gradually subside Monday. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS...Long period westerly swells moving through the coastal waters will have enough energy to produce an elevated risk of sneaker waves on SW Oregon beaches (Douglas, Coos and Curry counties) tonight into Friday. Initially today, swells are running 10-13 feet at 13 seconds, but periods lengthen to 17 seconds late this evening and will remain elevated through the day Friday. Please use caution at the beaches and avoid rocks, logs and jetties.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can knock people off their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

In addition, a high to very high swell is expected to arrive at the coast late Saturday night into Sunday. Breaker heights in the surf zone could reach 22-25 feet. Be on the lookout for potential high surf advisories.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.