textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

The cold front and associated band of showers is currently moving through the area this morning while the storms remain to our north. There will be some rain within these showers, although accumulation should be rather low or some areas will stay completely dry, like locations east of the Cascades.

As for the rest of the day, the 500 mb trough axis will be in eastern Oregon by the afternoon hours, so things should start to dry out towards the afternoon hours as the probability of precipitation drops to 0 percent by the evening hours. With the cooler more unstable air moving on shore, we should see some fair weather cumulus within Oregon in the late afternoon and evening hours. It looks like skies will be clearer within California.

Zonal flow and clear skies are anticipated during Thursday. Not a whole lot to talk about as temperatures warm briefly with some gusty north westerly breezes.

By Thursday night into Friday morning, another cold front is showing up on the 850 mb equivalent potential temperature charts. It's not really associated with an upper level wave, so a tad bizarre. In any case, it will be a dry front for our area with the probability of precipitation <5% for our northern portions of our forecast area. However, we should all see temperatures trend cooler from Thursday into Friday.

Finally, we could see some rain on Saturday as another wave in Washington digs deeper into the Pacific Northwest, bringing some light precipitation(<0.05 inches) in northern portions of our area. The cooler onshore flow will persist and keep temperatures near normal for this time of year.

As for the remainder of next week, most of the ensemble members are keeping us dry. However, about 8% of those members want to bring precipitation through at times, mainly around Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. Interestingly enough, this wetter solution next week(the 8 percent scenario) is depicted in the 0Z run of the ECMWF, which is an outlier at the moment.

Overall, no major weather impacts anticipated based on what we're seeing in the models through the next week.

AVIATION

A passing upper level trough will bring rain showers and periods of IFR ceilings over locations along the coast. Those ceilings will improve through the day as some drier air moves in as the wave moves farther east.

VFR conditions are anticipated for locations away from the coast through the TAF period. A isolated shower could produce some brief IFR conditions, although VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the TAF period. We should see a fair amount of fair weather cumulus early in the afternoon hours before eroding somewhat as drier air moves in.

-Smith

MARINE

A passing low pressure system will bring showers early today, along with increasing west winds and west swell. Despite this, below advisory conditions are expected to persist as seas increase some, but remain swell dominated. Gusty north winds could return Thursday with steeps seas possible by Friday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.