textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion Updated.

AVIATION...01/12z TAFs

This morning, MVFR in stratus is occuring the Umpqua Basin and Coquille valley with areas of LIFR/IFR in fog the Rogue, Illinois and Applegate valleys. Relatively dry northeast flow across the area should keep fog development limited along the coast and east of the Cascades/Klamath Basin. So VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period there. Valley low clouds are fog are expected to clear to VFR around 18-21z. As a weak disturbance moves into the region Monday night and early Tuesday, high level cloud cover is expected across southwest Oregon. The will likely limit the development of fog Monday night with more isolated and patchy MVFR/IFR in valley fog. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across northern California through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 256 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025/

DISCUSSION...A high pressure ridge, centered over the Pacific, extends across the area. This ridge will remain in place through late this week. A weak shortwave is forecast to move down the eastern side of this ridge tonight and into eastern Washington, northeast Oregon and Idaho on Tuesday. This will bring onshore, moist flow into northwest portions of the area. The National Blend of Models continues to indicate chances for light rainfall at the coast (20-60%) and inland over Douglas County (10-40%). Any rainfall that occurs would be very light, around a trace to a few hundreths of an inch. Otherwise, dry weather with seasonable temperatures is expected across the area through Wednesday. Overnight and morning valley fog may be the main concern through mid week, with strong inversions and lingering moisture allowing for areas of fog each day, especially west of the Cascades.

North to northeasterly winds are expected aloft, bringing some breezy winds to the ridges today. Additionally, breezy northerly winds are expected along the coast this afternoon and evening, and again Tuesday. Inland, winds will increase out of the northwest on Tuesday with the passage of the shortwave trough. Breezy to gusty northwest winds (gusts to 15-25 kt) are expected east of the Cascades on Tuesday.

The shortwave trough will shift southeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the high pressure ridge strengthening again over the region. There is high confidence of dry weather across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Late in the week, ensembles support a more active pattern moving into the Pacific Northwest as frontal systems move over the ridge and into the region. This will bring chances for light precipitation by Friday, then increasing chances for precipitation Friday night and Saturday. There is more variability in the models beyond Saturday, with the ECMWF drying out by Sunday and the GFS staying active through the weekend and into next week. Meteograms for both models generally support their respective deterministic patterns, although the ECMWF ensemble has ~20% of its members showing continuing rainfall. If the GFS outcome holds true, precipitation amounts and snow levels will be a focus of future forecasts. We will continue to monitor this period and update as confidence increases.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Monday, December 1, 2025...Breezy to gusty northerly winds will continue through Wednesday, with gusts south of Port Orford reaching Small Craft Advisory strength. Additionally, long period west swell will build into the waters late today and tonight, then peak on Tuesday (with west swell building to 8 to 9 feet at 16 seconds and combined seas of 9 to 11 feet). Steep seas are expected across the waters south of Cape Blanco through at least Wednesday. Seas may also become steep north of Cape Blanco Tuesday night and Wednesday. Conditions may briefly improve for Thursday, but the pattern is likely to turn more active late in the week.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 AM PST Monday, December 1, 2025...Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first arriving at around 2 to 3 ft at 20 to 22 second this morning. This swell is expected to build to around 7 to 9 ft at 16 to 18 seconds late this afternoon into Tuesday morning with combined seas of 9 to 11 feet. While seas will be steep, high surf conditions are not expected along beaches. However, these conditions will bring a risk for dangerous sneaker waves. If you have plans to visit the coast on Monday, please be aware of this sneaker wave potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to the beaches for another day. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean!

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM PST this morning through Tuesday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ356.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ376.