textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist through the weekend with gusty winds (25-35 mph) low RHs. Critical conditions bring a Red Flag Warning for much of Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake counties (winds strongest/RHs lowest today).

* A thunderstorm risk develops early next week. Best chances on Tuesday, and east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances extending into Jackson County.

* Currently no signals for sharp warm ups or heat waves. High temperatures hovering around 5 to 7 degrees above normal (mid- upper 90s for West Side Valleys and upper 80s-low 90s for the East Side) through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Forecast confidence/model agreement is high through Monday. High pressure in the Great Basin amplifies today while a relatively strong low pressure moves closer to the BC Coast. Southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tight pressure gradients. This pattern will continue our streak of multiple days of strong, gusty winds through Sunday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens), and when combined with those 25 to 35 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions are expected again east of the Cascades and across the Modoc through Sunday, with the strongest winds/lowest RHs expected today. The parent low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, but a frontal boundary/energy gets left behind, maintaining tight pressure gradients. Guidance maintains another day of gusty winds (25-30 mph) with conditions very much like what occurred on Friday, with humidities ticking upward some.

Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough and the flow will turn more south to southwest heading into the early part of next week, bringing us an increasing threat for thunderstorms. There is a potential for showers as early as Sunday afternoon/evening, primarily along the Warners in Modoc County northward into in south central Oregon (including eastern Lake County). Weak instability and an influx of mid-level moisture may produce a few showers/isolated thunderstorms but chances are lowest on Sunday, increasing Monday into Tuesday. Mid and upper level moisture increases Monday, and a shortwave progged to move through the region combined with some weak instability brings the potential for thunderstorms east of the Cascades (east of Highway 97 corridor) Monday afternoon.

Tuesday is looking more likely for the better/more widespread chances of thunderstorms. Mid-level moisture will continue to increase Monday night into Tuesday and instability increases Tuesday, especially along/east of the Cascades and along/south of Siskiyous. With a weaker trough offshore, this will allow the ridge to expand slightly westward, bringing a farther westward shift in thunderstorm potential compared to Monday, potentially reaching as far west as the Rogue Valley. Given the flow aloft should be more southwesterly, this should limit convection potential for areas north and west of Jackson County, but again, details will likely continue to fluctuate, so stay tuned for updates. This seems like a pattern where we likely won't be confident in location details until the time frame reaches the high resolution models, which won't capture that until at later today into Sunday. With the slightly westward expansion of that high pressure, we'll see an upward trend in high temperatures west of the Cascades by around 5 to 7 degrees between Sunday and Tuesday. Despite this slight warming trend, the risk for heat related illnesses remains low as we still expect overnight temperatures to cool to seasonal normals, providing relief from the hot daytime temperatures.

Model disagreement on details continues for the latter half of the week, though the general picture is the same. Another low pressure from the northwest is forecast to pass through the region around mid- week and the differences lie in the location and strength of this system. About a third of the ensemble solutions (EC weighted) bring this low pressure on a farther south track, moving inland into southern/central Oregon. Another third of the solutions (GEFS weighted) brings this low pressure inland into northern Washington. The other third maintains a broad trough over the West Coast Wednesday into Thursday. Either solution would shift the thunderstorm threat northward, with the EC solutions putting thunder risk across far northern areas into the northern half of Oregon while the GFS suite has much lower chances. There remains a lot of subtle details here that with any shifts in model trends could either decrease or increase thunder potential for the latter half of next week.

One positive to this pattern, however, is we don't currently see any signals for sharp warm ups/heatwaves through the end of next week. Temperatures will hover around 5 to 7 degrees above normal for this time of year, equating to mid-upper 90s for West Side Valleys and upper 80s-low 90s for the East Side. Guidance indicates around a 20% chance of reaching 100 degrees here in Medford through Thursday. This increases to around 40% Friday into next weekend. Guidance indicates the potential for the ridge to expand westward next weekend behind the low pressure moving inland Wednesday/Thursday. Stay tuned for updates.

AVIATION...11/06Z TAFs

A mix of LIFR/IFR is present along the coast and will persist through early Saturday morning, with gradually lifting to MVFR in the mid to late morning and clearing around 18-21z. Areas of MVFR ceilings are spreading into the Umpqua tonight and will persist into Saturday morning, with clearing around 18z.

All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period. However, Medford (KMFR) may see periods of reduced visibilities with areas of smoke spreading into the area overnight and Saturday morning. Otherwise, gusty afternoon and evening winds are expected areawide Saturday afternoon and evening, strongest east of the Cascades (gusts 20-30 mph).

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Saturday, July 11, 2026

A brief period of improved conditions is expected this morning and into the afternoon. Gusty north winds return to areas south of Cape Blanco by late afternoon/evening today, bringing the return of steep seas and conditions hazardous to small craft tonight into Sunday. Borderline steep seas spread north of Cape Blanco late Sunday morning as northerly winds strengthen on Sunday. Conditions improve on Monday, but areas of steep seas/borderline advisory winds may persist into mid-week south of Port Orford. More widespread hazardous conditions are possible for the latter half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 230 AM Saturday, July 11, 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue through the weekend, with a Red Flag Warning in place for portions of the East Side and the Modoc Plateau.

Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the afternoons and evening continue through the weekend. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens today. When combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are expected across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 today through Sunday. Winds will ease overnight and recoveries will be in the good (this morning) to moderate range (Sunday/Monday mornings). Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak today when humidities trend lower (low teens), winds increase some (25-40 mph) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. Despite this, critical conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon/evening. Expect Sunday's conditions to closely resemble those of Friday.

A thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of the week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which will send monsoonal moisture into the region. There is currently a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon in southeastern Modoc County before expanding to more of Lake and eastern Klamath counties. However, Tuesday looks to have a higher chance for thunderstorms. See the discussion above for more detail on thunderstorm chances.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.