textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures trend hotter Saturday and Sunday, with high temperatures expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

* Very warm and dry conditions this weekend will bring some elevated fire weather concerns due to near summer-like dryness, but critical fire weather conditions are not expected. * A weak upper level disturbance Sunday night into Monday will bring a very low chance (5%) for showers or thunderstorms for Modoc County.

* Very warm temperatures persist through the middle of next week. More seasonal temperatures are expected towards the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Warm and dry continues will continue across inland areas today. Along the coast, a marine layer will result in low clouds this morning with partial clearing in the afternoon, before returning Friday night.

This weekend, the high pressure ridge strengthens over the region, with temperatures trending warmer. High temperatures are expected to peak Saturday and Sunday (10 to 20 degrees above normal) then remain very warm into early to middle of next week.

The very warm and dry pattern this weekend will bring a potential for some elevated fire weather concerns, especially across northern California and east of the Cascades. However, critical conditions are not likely. A surface thermal trough along the coast will result in generally light easterly flow across the ridges through Sunday morning. Easterly winds combined with a subsidence inversion will result in overnight humidities trending lower across the upper slopes and ridges. These conditions peak Saturday night and Sunday with moderate to poor overnight/morning recoveries over the ridges. Winds are expected to be light though and remain below critical levels for fire weather conditions. Additionally, very warm daytime temperatures and dry afternoon humidities are expected across inland areas through this weekend. Afternoon humidities for West Side valleys generally remain in the 20-35 percent range while east side areas and northern California valleys will see low humidities in the teens. Afternoon winds will be generally light though. Overnight recoveries are also expected to be favorable across valleys, which should help moderate the overall fire-weather threat. Warm temperatures that stay short of summer highs make outdoor activities appealing but anticipated conditions will bring summer like dryness. Dry grasses and leaves are still present in many areas. Please be cautious if you choose to do anything that may create a spark.

The ridge weakens slightly late Sunday evening into Monday morning, as a weak shortwave trough moves into northern California from the southwest. This will bring some mid level moisture and weak instability with a very low chance (5%) for showers or isolated thunderstorms in Modoc County. This disturbance shifts east of the area Monday afternoon.

A flat upper level ridge remains over the region through much of next week, with above normal temperatures (10 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms) and dry weather expected across the area. Towards the end of next week, models and ensembles support a trough moving into the region from the northwest. With this pattern, expect temperatures to trend lower (near seasonal norms).

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)

Conditions are going to deteriorate along the coast in the next few hours with LIFR/IFR conditions (ceiling & vis) persisting through much of this cycle. It will also be breezy along the coast this afternoon. A different story is anticipated for inland sites with VFR conditions and overall light wind speeds. There will be high clouds around through this cycle as well.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Thursday, October 01, 2026

With a thermal trough along the coast, steep seas will persist through early Friday morning as far north as Coos Bay, with very steep seas south of Gold Beach. Winds ease some Friday, so conditions will improve north of Cape Blanco, but steep seas will persist southward through Saturday night. As the thermal trough moves inland late Saturday and Sunday, expect conditions to improve some, especially for the inner waters. However, gusty north winds and steep seas may be present at times into next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ356-376.