textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable temperatures around normal for this time of year expected through the upcoming week.

* Precipitation chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)

The trough which brought precipitation to the region yesterday is moving east out of the region as of writing this. In the wake, an H5 ridge of high pressure will begin to transition over the region tonight through tomorrow. This ridge will allow for clearing skies today, but satellite shows stubborn areas that are still holding on to clouds. Expecting most areas to clear out by last this afternoon. The big question for tonight is how much residual low level saturation will hold over. Most guidance shows clear skies, but finding this hard to believe given the recent rainfall across westside valleys. Fairly confident low clouds and fog will develop again tonight for areas in the Umpqua basin and the Rogue Valley. Less confidence for areas along/near the coast due to an offshore component in the wind likely keeping things mostly clear.

The next trough will take a more southerly track than previously seen, so this will likely reduce precipitation chances for a good portion of the forecast area. That said, areas across the southern Oregon coast, and southerly portions of the forecast area (including northern California) will have a chance for rainfall Tuesday/Tuesday night. However, rainfall amounts will be on the lower side with some isolated amounts potentially around a quarter of an inch of rainfall. Not expecting much--if any--snowfall but some areas above 5000 feet could see a light dusting.

The aforementioned trough on Tuesday then moves out and another weak ridge of high pressure slides over the area through midweek. The weak ridge flattens enough on Wednesday that we could see some weak energy from the base of a trough that extends down from the Gulf of Alaska pass over the forecast area. This may result in small chances for precipitation Wed/Wed night, but amounts are only a few hundredths of an inch. The flow then turns mostly zonal through the end of the work week.

Not seeing much in the realm of weather impacts for the upcoming week other than light rainfall amounts. To further illustrate this, the probability for 0.10" of rainfall never exceeds 40%-50% this upcoming week, so while some areas will get light amounts of rainfall, this wont be anywhere near significant amounts for any locations across the forecast area.

Looking ahead, there is the potential for more impactful weather around Veteran's Day which could bring strong winds, increased rainfall amounts, and potential snowfall for higher elevations above 4500 ft. This is of course very far in the future, and a lot can change, but at this time we are watching this timeframe for potential impactful weather.

-Guerrero

AVIATION....02/06Z

Conditions are mostly VFR with areas of LIFR in the northern Umpqua Valley. Overnight, areas of LIFR in low clouds and fog are likely to expend in the Umpqua Valley. There is also medium confidence for LIFR in fog developing in the Illinois and Rogue Valleys late tonight/early Monday morning. With the later onset of fog in the Illinois and Rogue valleys, high clouds moving into the area tonight, may limit fog development. Along the coast, conditions are expected to remain VFR with a low chance of fog (15%) at North Bend (KOTH) late tonight. East of the Cascades and in Northern California, expect mainly VFR into Monday morning but localized IFR/LIFR in fog is possible, such as in the Mount Shasta City, Alturas and Lakeview areas.

Any fog and low ceilings that develop are expected to lift and dissipate during the late morning, with VFR areawide by around 19z.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Sunday, November 1, 2026

Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory levels tonight. Long- period west-northwest swell builds tonight into Monday night with seas becoming steep in the outer waters. Seas will then remain high and steep in at least the outer waters Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Southeast winds and swell dominated seas are likely to reach a peak on Tuesday morning. Conditions briefly improve on Wednesday. An active pattern late in the week may produce high to very high swell dominated seas.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 130 PM PST Sunday, November 1, 2026

Long period WNW swell will continue building into the area into Monday evening. Originating from near the western Aleutian Islands, the swell arrives along the Oregon coast this afternoon at 2 ft at 20 seconds. These high-energy waves will have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to 4 to 6 feet at 19 seconds tonight then to around 8 to 10 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon. So expect the sneaker wave risk will be most prominent late tonight through Monday during the incoming high tides. Wave periods drop to 16 seconds on Monday night, then below 15 seconds later Tuesday; as a result, the risk of sneaker waves will lessen.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ370-376.