textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Strong southwest to west winds will be present through this evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake County through 9 PM for Lake County and the Rogue Valley. 10-20% RH values will remain this afternoon.

* The next low is arriving today, and rain will continue to move inland.

* The low will keep shower chances Tuesday, first west of the Cascades, and then in most areas.

Satellite shows more cumulus clouds across areas west of the Cascades with marine stratus holding along the coast down through Curry County into Brookings. The next cold front is arriving today, and shower activity has begun at the coast. This line of showers will move inland through the next few hours before starting to fall apart as it gets closer to the Cascades. Rainfall will focus on the coast and Cascades through this evening, and ~0.25" is forecast for the coast with ~0.10"-0.20" near Crater Lake and north through the rest of today.

Gusty winds are being reported at the coast and will continue through the late evening. There is a Wind Advisory for most of Lake County including Summer Lake, Fort Rock, and Valley Falls and the Rogue Valley. These winds will start to weaken later this evening. Please see NPWMFR for more information.

Overnight, the showers will become more scattered. Coverage will be best east of the Cascades, and overnight there is a 60-80% probability to have a wetting rain by 7 AM Tuesday in Lake and eastern Klamath counties. However, showers west of the Cascades could drop moderate rain at times. Another thing to keep in mind is that snow levels will fall to the 4,500'-5,000' tonight which brings the potential for a few flakes along the Cascades and higher east. Overall, from 11 AM today through Wednesday at 11 AM, near 0.25"- 0.50" of rain could fall at the coast with near 0.10"-0.25" east of the Cascades.

Forecast CAPEs values increase Tuesday afternoon, especially east of the Cascades and in Modoc County. There is a 15-20% chance for a thunderstorm in these locations. The upper low will be moving south Tuesday, and with this track wraparound showers will be present through the day Tuesday. Tuesday evening and overnight the showers move across the area with more coverage, although they will be light.

Getting back to the temperatures, today was the beginning of a 2-day cooldown. Today's temperatures will be near normal. Tomorrow another drop brings highs to 10-15 degrees below normal, 50s/low 60s. The low will continue stalling in the area, leaving us with wraparound showers, cloudier skies and below normal temps through at least Wednesday. For now, the low is forecast to move south Thursday, and temperatures will return to normal or warmer. -Hermansen

AVIATION...25/18Z TAFS

An approaching cold front will bring strong, gusty westerly winds this afternoon and evening. Winds will be strongest east of the Cascades, and also in the Rogue Valley and Siskiyou County with gusts of around 25 to 35 kt expected.

VFR will continue inland through this evening. Meantime, MVFR and local IFR will continue at the coast with rain showers developing this afternoon. As rain spreads inland late this afternoon into the evening, expect mountain obscurations, and lowering ceilings with local MVFR.

A showery airmass will follow late tonight through Tuesday with increasing coverage of MVFR ceilings, especially west of the Cascades.

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Monday, May 25, 2026

The two main changes this afternoon were to upgrade to a hazardous seas warning for the outer waters beyond 40 nm from shore during Tuesday, and extend a Small Craft Advisory through Wednesday and Wednesday night (excepting the inner waters north of Cape Blanco where steep seas will still end early Wednesday morning).

A cold front will continue through the waters during the remainder of this afternoon bringing rain and increasing seas. Seas have become steep again, with the strongest south winds occurring north of Cape Blanco. Steep, northwest swell builds in strongly behind the front, reaching a peak on Tuesday. These west-northwest swell dominated seas are expected to peak at around 13 to 18 ft at 14 seconds. Diminishing seas are expected to remain steep Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

After brief, slight improvement, high pressure offshore and lingering low pressure inland will again bring increasing north winds on Wednesday afternoon with the strongest winds likely to occur south of Gold Beach. The gusty north winds and a long period west-northwest swell will continue steep seas Wednesday night, and possibly during Thursday and Thursday night also. Conditions may briefly improve on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated 230 PM PDT Monday, May 25, 2026...Elevated to critical fire weather risk today into this evening due to a combination of strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity.

A cold front will move onshore today. Strong, gusty S-SW winds (20-30 mph) will develop in advance of the front this afternoon/evening east of the Cascades and in portions of northern California, where gusts of 35-40 mph will be common, even up to 45 mph in some areas of Lake/Modoc counties. Afternoon humidity in these areas could drop to 10-20% for at least a few hours and fuels there are dry enough that if ignitions were to occur, fire would be able to spread rapidly. As such, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1-11 pm PDT for southeastern Modoc County in California and from 1-8 pm PDT for most of Lake County in Oregon. Fire conditions are also elevated in areas where it turns breezy/windy this afternoon, but fuel receptiveness is still on the moderate side and humidity levels are just a bit high to warrant additional fire weather headlines. There is also a Wind Advisory through 7 PM for the Rogue Valley with gusts in the 40-45 mph range.

Models are showing a substantial increase in humidity and the potential for wetting rainfall, especially east of the Cascades for the rest of the week (Tue-Fri). As such, fire danger should lower significantly in the coming days. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ625.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for ORZ026-031.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ370- 376.