textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

It's a quiet night in southern Oregon and far northern California, with mostly clear skies and light winds under high pressure. Some areas of fog are possible in some of the West Side valleys early this morning, but with less moisture in the prevailing air mass, coverage should not be nearly as extensive as yesterday morning, and will likely remain confined to the Umpqua and Illinois valleys.

A thermal trough will remain in place along the coast through today with light offshore flow. This should keep the mid slopes and some of the higher terrain warmer and drier overnight.

Temperatures will continue to warm today and Sunday with many valleys seeing mid to upper 70's west of the Cascades with areas farther east in the upper 60's to perhaps lower 70's on Sunday. Even with this warm up, we'll still be a few degrees short of high temperature records for April 4th and 5th.

The main weather feature Monday will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms over the higher Cascades and perhaps some lower elevations east and west of the Cascades. Looking at the ECMWF ensemble, it looks like every member is putting down some QPF somewhere across the region, although that could be showers instead of a thunderstorm. Model soundings show the highest amount of convective available potential energy(CAPE) in the high Cascades in Crater Lake with some of that energy around -10C to -20C. Therefore, it seems reasonable there could be some cloud to cloud or cloud to ground lightning Monday afternoon near Crater Lake.

The synoptic pattern continues to evolve by Tuesday as a cut low off the California coastline lingers while an open trough and front pass just to our north. Tuesday is looking drier, then rain chances increase Wednesday into Thursday as the closed low finally moves onshore with the arrival of a second trough from the northwest. This still keeps most of the precipitation chances over northern California, but some could sneak north across the state line. With mostly light, showery precipitation, and snow levels remaining well above 5000 ft, little to no impacts are expected.

AVIATION...04/12Z TAFs

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period for most the area. The exception is that conditions are expected to locally lower with areas of IFR/LIFR along the coast (KOTH) and in the Umpqua Basin (KRBG) early this morning. Any lower flight conditions should clear to VFR by mid to late morning.

Also, gusty north winds will continue through the day for much of the coast and over the coastal waters.

MARINE...Updated 1200 AM PDT Saturday, April 4, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep seas continue through tonight, then once the thermal trough weakens, relatively calm conditions are expected through early next week. However, another thermal trough develops bringing another round of strong north winds and steep seas by Tuesday afternoon and strengthening through at least Wednesday night.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.