textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...05/12Z TAFs

LIFR conditions prevail over the marine waters and just inland north of Cape Blanco. Any additional clearing is unlikely through this evening, so expect LIFR ceilings/visibilities to become more widespread after sunset, including south of Cape Blanco. VFR conditions prevail for inland locations and will do so through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 258 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot and dry weather through the work week.

* There will be a good chance we set new high temperature records Wednesday and Thursday.

* A cold front will move through the region around Friday night pushing temperatures towards normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION...

A short wave is currently moving through northern California with some scattered cloud cover and showers south of Modoc and Siskiyou County. A few models are forecasting reflectivity over northern California as potential instability builds this afternoon. We'll see if anything does form in our area, although the probability of any cloud to ground lightning is around 1 to 3 percent in northern California.

This short wave will eventually move eastwards overnight with clouds and fog building in along the coast. Temperatures will cool into the lower 50's in many of the valleys overnight with some lower 40's east of the Cascades.

As for the rest of the week, temperatures will push well above normal(~15 degrees) for early October with highs in the mid 90's here in Medford and perhaps a few points hitting 100 degrees in the Klamath River Valley of Siskiyou County. We're forecasting 103 around Somes Bar on Tuesday, which is typically the warmest point of our forecast area. Some high temperature records will fall if this thermal trough and ridge maintain the current strength.

On Wednesday October 7th, we're forecasting a high of 89 in Mt Shasta City and 92 in Montague, which would break the old records 88 and 91 both set in 2022. The hot conditions will continue into Thursday with a forecasted high of 95 in Medford potentially breaking the old record of 94 set back in 1996. In addition, Mt Shasta City's old record of 88 set in 2022 could fall to the forecasted high of 89, and Montague's old record of 91 could fall to the forecasted high of 93.

The models want to cool things off on Friday as an upper level wave moves down from Canada. Sometimes the models can be too quick to cool things off when we're under these thermal troughs during the summer. In any case, temperatures will likely trend cooler by Friday or Saturday when a cold front pushes through the Pacific Northwest. This cold front is leaning drier, although we did spot a few(~3/50) ensemble members putting down some lighter rain along the frontal boundary, so there is a chance.

By Saturday, temperatures will be notably cooler with a 20 degree drop off between the middle of this week and by Saturday. Overall, some big chances in the weather over the next few days, although not impactful for the region.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Monday, October 5, 2026...A persisting thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas during much of the week ahead. As typical in these patterns, the strongest winds and highest seas will be south of Cape Blanco, with very steep seas expected from Gold Beach southward. Winds will be strongest during the afternoons/evenings and very steep seas will return daily during the evenings and overnight periods. Fluctuations in the thermal trough could bring very steep seas northward to around Bandon late Wednesday into Thursday, but the overall pattern will change very little until late week/into the weekend.

A pattern change may bring active weather towards the end of the week, with some guidance also showing incoming long period westerly swell arriving at some point over the weekend. Confidence is not high enough in theses outcomes to predict the sea state, but as this is the first sign of a possibly meaningful long-period swell this season, acknowledging it is worthwhile.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ376.