textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion updated.

AVIATION...19/06Z TAFS

Low pressure will move to the south and east of the area tonight. Isolated light snow showers (with local IFR/MVFR conditions) inland and light rain showers along the coast will gradually come to an end tonight. Areas of low stratus are expected to develop in the Umpqua Basin overnight and persist Friday morning. Areas of low clouds with IFR/LIFR are also expected at North Bend and Medford. Patchy low clouds and/or fog may impact the Klamath Falls very late tonight or around sunrise Friday. Low clouds will gradually clear 18-21z with VFR conditions Friday afternoon. Friday evening, expect areas of MVFR to develop along the coast.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 245 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026/

SYNOPSIS...

Cold weather will create minor impacts over the area tonight as Mt. Shasta City comes close to a record low temperature. A strong low will strengthen off our coast on Sunday and bring another round of snow and rain to the region. There is a risk of flooding along the coast and coastal rivers into early next week. Overall, moderate weather risks continue for the region.

DISCUSSION...

There are lots of showers on the radar this afternoon as cooler unstable air moves in with sufficient surface heating. The showers have increased in coverage over the last few hours and they should persist for a few more hours. Coverage should decrease into the late evening hours as we loose surface heating and 500 mb heights build quickly behind the departing trough.

Cold weather is the main headline tonight. Temperatures were cold last night, although those were occuring during a winter storm warning. With the recent snow pack, partially clear skies and some very light winds, there is minor cold weather risk according to our criteria in northern California. It will frankly be cold everywhere, but California is usually a bit warmer in the valleys. We're currently forecasting a record low temperature of 12 degrees in Mt. Shasta City with the old record of 15 set back in 2006. We might be a bit too cold in the forecast, but we should come close to that record at the very least.

There was also some talk of fog forming in Umpqua Valley tonight, although the soundings has ample moisture in the boundary layer and the air isn't that dry aloft. It's unclear how much clearing we'll get tonight in some spots, although the high resolution ensemble forecast(HREF) is pretty confident we'll clear out in some spots. Overall, there is a small chance some freezing fog forms later tonight in the valleys tonight.

The focus then turns to the next storm system around late Saturday into Sunday. The next trough dives out the Gulf of Alaska and a surface low undergoes cyclogenesis and starts to spin up off the Oregon coastline late Saturday. The low then strengthens as it heads northwards along 130W and deepens further around 135W and 48N late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Ensembles are pretty consistent in showing this low strengthening between 970MB to 980MB with significant winds in the outer waters. The extreme forecast index(EFI) is showing winds values around 0.9 to 0.95 in our outer waters with a shift of tales of 1. This hints at a pretty strong wind event coming close to coastal shoreline and producing high winds. Local MOS guidance based off the GFS forecast is showing wind gusts up to 65 mph in the coastal headlands. We didn't issue a watch at this time, although it needs to be revisited during future shifts.

We were a little more confident with the snow forecast as NBM probabilities show a 50% chance of >10 inches over 5000 feet in Siskiyou County through Sunday. Therefore, we issued a winter storm watch as models show strong 700 mb flow up the Sacramento Valley. The 12Z ensembles also appear to trend a little wetter with more snow, so that added to our confidence.

Below the freezing level, there will be plenty of rain, especially along the Oregon coast. Integrated Water Vapor Transport(IVT) vectors/values are southerly around 500 for around 72 hours, which could be considered a moderate atmospheric river(AR) for the coast. The latest WPC QPF is showing 4 to 8 inches of rain along the coast as snow levels hover around 4000 feet before increasing to 6000 feet on Monday. When combined with the liquid in snow, we felt there is risk of areal flooding in small streams and rapid rises in rivers. Some of the latest hydro graphs near Myrtle Point along the Coquille river show a 25% chance of reaching minor flood stage by Tuesday.

By Wednesday, things start to quiet down a bit as the low impacting us from Sunday through Tuesday weakens and rotates farther west. Ensembles show higher surface pressure with almost perfect zonal flow aloft, although the NBM has PoPs around 40 percent for most of Wednesday.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Thursday, February 19, 2026...North to northwest winds will gradually subside tonight, but steep to occasionally very steep seas will persist (10-15 ft this evening, easing below 10 feet Friday morning). A brief period of lighter winds and lower seas is expected Friday morning. Then, a strong storm will move southward over the eastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska, bringing a high probability of strong southerly gales/very steep seas over the inner waters (inside 10 NM) and storm winds/ dangerous seas over the outer waters (beyond 10NM from shore) late Friday night, Saturday and into Sunday. Steep to very steep, hazardous seas are likely to persist over the waters even beyond that time frame (into at least Monday). Appropriate hazard headlines have been issued.

HYDROLOGY...A moderate atmospheric river will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall later this weekend into early next week. The first frontal system is forecast to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday with multiple waves of precipitation continuing Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Preliminary estimates are showing widespread amounts of 4 to 6 inches along the coast with locally 8 inches in the favored coast ranges of Curry County. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the Mount Shasta region and also other favored areas of western Siskiyou County.

Small streams and creeks are likely to rise rapidly during this event with nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways during periods of heavy rain. Significant rises on main stem rivers and flashier creeks are also expected. Given that rivers are still running fairly low for this time of year, river flooding potential is a bit lower than usual, but there is at least a low probability of some flooding, especially in the Coquille Basin. We have issued a Hydrologic Outlook (ESFMFR) to highlight this potential.

While the exact scenario for the heavy rainfall and potential flooding remains uncertain, we will continue to monitor the forecasts and update accordingly. Flood Watches may be issued by the National Weather Service if this situation worsens.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ080>082.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for CAZ080-082-083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for PZZ350-356.

Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for PZZ370-376.