textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Radar is showing moderate to heavy precipitation moving over northern California and southern Oregon as a surface low moves northward over the Pacific. Gusty winds are generally limited to elevated areas on either side of the Cascades early this morning, but maximum gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range are showing up. Acorn Woman Peak (near the Oregon/California border) and Calimus (Northeast of Klamath Falls) both have observed gusts exceeding 60 mph. Gusty winds are also funneling in to the Shasta Valley, where Weed Airport has observed winds near 50 mph.

There's growing agreement in model runs that this surface low is going to turn eastward and move inland early this morning rather than stay over the water. This outcome would keep strong winds out of most west side valleys. As mentioned, the Shasta Valley is already getting gusty winds. Winds orienting with the southeast Rogue Valley could bring periods of gusty winds from Ashland to Medford. And confidence remains high that gusty winds will move across areas east of the Cascades later this morning. While periods of breezy to gusty winds are possible along the coast and west side valleys through the morning, the most impactful outcomes are looking less likely.

Precipitation is forecast to continue moving the area from the south this morning, with the Mount Shasta region (Weed, Mount Shasta City, McCloud) and Curry County seeing the highest amounts. Current snow levels of 7000 feet or more will drop to 4500-5000 feet through the day, but snowfall will be limited as precipitation starts to decrease this afternoon and evening. Winds across the evening should also dissipate by this evening.

This decrease in activity will be brief as a cutoff upper low develops in the lingering trough, bringing a cooler air mass and another round of precipitation late tonight and into Christmas day. With southerly flow aloft continuing, the Mount Shasta region will see the first showers from this system and will see the steadiest precipitation through Thursday and Friday. Coastal headlands and area terrain are expected to see gusty winds on Thursday. Winter weather is expected with this second system, given that southerly flow and snow levels dropping to 4500 feet on Thursday afternoon and 3500- 4000 feet on Friday. Terrain in Siskiyou county could see 1 to 3 feet of snow, and Mount Ashland could see 1 foot of snow. Snowfall on Interstate 5 between Dunsmuir and Weed, Highway 89 south of Mount Shasta, and Cascades passes are a concern for Thursday evening into Friday morning given holiday travel. Light snowfall is expected across basins and valleys east of the Cascades and more substantial snowfall over terrain.

A calmer period remains in to forecast for the weekend and into next week as the upper trough breaks down and an upper ridge develops over the Pacific. Long term guidance shows this ridge flattening towards the end of the week, allowing activity to return early in 2026. -TAD

AVIATION...24/12Z TAFs

Flight levels are fluctuating early this morning, as VFR ceilings turn to IFR/LIFR conditions as showers pass over area terminals. Widespread low level wind shear remains in guidance for the area, but forecasts for surface winds are trending lower. Gusty winds will certainly be present east of the Cascades, but the coast and west side valleys are expected to see more limited periods of breezy to gusty conditions. Showers continue through this morning, especially around Mount Shasta. Winds and showers ease into this afternoon and evening. Activity increases towards the end of the TAF period as a second active system approaches, but area terminals are not expected to see effects until later forecasts. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Monday, December 22, 2025

Two potentially significant storm systems will impact the area through Christmas. The first, quick-moving system, arrives late Tuesday through Wednesday morning and the second, slower-moving system, arrives late Wednesday night and persists into Friday morning.

There is STILL quite a range in solutions (and therefore, low confidence) for the first system as it moves south to north along the coast. This brings a wide range of possible scenarios in terms of wind strength over the marine waters since the position of the low is uncertain. Most of the guidance maintains that the low will run up the coast just offshore, producing strong gale force winds and very steep seas. This is the most likely scenario and is what the official forecast reflects. Two other scenarios, which lie closer to the extremes (on both ends) are possible, however. Stronger model solutions (about a 20-30% chance) show a period of southerly storm force winds occurring during the early morning hours Wednesday, that quickly shift the west in the late afternoon as winds wrap around the back side of the low. Weaker solutions (similar %) move the low into Cape Mendocino and keep the strongest winds to our south. With crab season well underway, and given the upcoming holiday, have erred on the side of caution and issued a Gale Warning, mentioning the potential for storm force gusts.

The second system remains farther offshore on Thursday and lingers over a longer period of time into Friday morning. Confidence is higher regarding some details with this system as guidance is in better agreement, but another round of gales is likely with this storm. Both systems will also bring a round of very steep and hazardous seas and potentially hazardous bar crossings. Winds will gradually ease late Friday, but seas are likely to remain steep into early Saturday. Once the Christmas system moves out of the region, the overall weather pattern looks to settle down over the weekend, possibly into next week, and conditions will improve overall with light to moderate north winds. -BPN/BR-y/Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ023-024-026.

High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021-022- 025>031.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for ORZ029>031.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for CAZ080-082>085.

Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ080-083.

High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081-084- 085.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for CAZ081-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.