textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures trend cooler tonight and Sunday behind this cold front.

* Temperatures warm up on Monday and should peak around Tuesday and Wednesday.

* Moderate heat risk is anticipated for our southern valleys west of the Cascades Tuesday and Wednesday.

* Thunder chances remain very low (less than 5%) for the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

The dry cold front is currently pushing onshore this afternoon with scattered cloud cover in Coos and Douglas Counties. Winds remain modest west of the Cascades, although they're picking up farther to the east of the Cascades and 1 to 5 mph stronger than yesterday in some spots. This dry cold front will be through the area by tonight with cooler air moving in and stronger northerly flow. Overnight lows in some sections of our forecast area are 10 degrees cooler compared to Friday night. Areas around the Klamath Marsh and near Chemult will approach the freezing mark later tonight.

With a stronger northerly wind, smoke from fires to the northeast will likely fill into Lake and Klamath Counties late Sunday. Some smoke from the Castle fire could also fill into the Rogue Valley, although smoke concentration wont be that bad and stay around 25ug/m3. These values are relatively low to the 200 - 300 this valley has observed in other fire seasons.

Temperatures will also remain cooler than normal for early August on Sunday. Highs will top out in the mid 80's here in Medford with lower 80's east of the Cascades. This is about 10 degrees cooler than normal as we're usually hitting the mid 90's at MFR. Eventually, an upper level wave will pass through eastern Oregon and help kick off a thermal trough west of the Cascades during Sunday night into Monday morning.

Lighter easterly flow will help push temperatures higher as a thermal trough builds west of the Cascades Monday. We'll see highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90's with areas along the coast moving into the upper 70's. Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day with highs in the mid 100's here in some valleys west of the Cascades. The coast is also expected to be warm with Brookings pushing into the mid 80's as well. This heat persisting Wednesday and Thursday will result in moderate heat risk for many of our southern valleys west of the Cascades. Temperatures at these levels impacts those sensitive to heat and without access to cooling facilities. A heat advisory may be needed during next week.

By Friday into Saturday, the ridge remains unusually strong over Nevada with a 600dm contour over the 4 corners states. Heights are obviously lower closer to Oregon, although 500mb heights are still higher than normal for early August and late July. In any case, hot temperatures will likely persist into the weekend, although we're not expecting to break high temperature records.

-Smith

AVIATION...02/00Z TAFs

Local MVFR ceilings along the coast north of Cape Blanco will gradually clear to VFR around 00-02z. Areas of low clouds with MVFR conditions are expected to redevelop north of Cape Blanco tonight into early Sunday, 06-14z. Inland, mainly VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Gusty winds are expected through this evening, strongest east of the Cascades. Overnight into early Sunday morning, local IFR ceilings are possible in the Umpqua Basin. There is a 15-20% chance for IFR/MVFR at Roseburg between 12-17z.

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Saturday, August 1, 2026

Northerly winds increase today with steep seas building south of Cape Blanco by early evening. A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast, bringing stronger, gale force winds and very steep seas Sunday afternoon through Monday evening south of Cape Blanco with gusty winds and steep seas spreading north of Cape Blanco. Locally very steep seas are possible late Monday afternoon and evening for the waters beyond 10 nm from shore between Cape Blanco and Charleston. North winds and steep seas should gradually ease Tuesday and Wednesday, but at least remain hazardous to small craft. Very steep seas may linger Tuesday and Wednesday for the waters beyond 10 nm from shore south of Cape Blanco.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Saturday, August 1, 2026

A dry cold front will move through the area today. Humidity from the Cascades westward should be high enough to preclude fire weather headlines despite an uptick in afternoon/evening N-NW winds. The same can't be said for areas east of the Cascades in Oregon, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect (SE portion of FWZ 624 and all of FWZ 625). Humidity will remain low there, dropping into the single digits over the deserts this afternoon and in the low teens closer to the Fremont National Forest. We expect westerly winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph in these areas. Winds should decrease a bit Sunday.

However, a strengthening thermal trough in northern California and SW Oregon will result in a period of offshore N-NE winds for the coast ranges and mountains of western Siskiyou County beginning Sunday night. As with most thermal troughs, the first night usually coincides with the strongest winds, with model 850 winds in the 20- 25kt range. Not the strongest thermal trough, but this should result in some gusty winds (25-30 mph) at night at the usual locations in vicinity of the thermal belts. Aligning with the Chetco River, these winds will descend resulting in compressional warming/drying all the way to the coast near Brookings on Monday. Look for elevated fire risk there with highs in the 80s, low humidity and gusty NE breezes. On the second night (Monday night), poor RH recoveries are expected across all SW Oregon and northern California upper slopes/ridges. Some guidance is showing RH only recovering into the low 20s Tuesday through Thursday. It still could be breezy, but probably not as much as Sunday night. It goes without saying that this pattern will produce hot, dry afternoons as well Tue/Wed, so we'll be keeping an eye on the winds to see if the stronger breezes combine with the low humidity for wind/rh headlines. -Spilde/Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356- 376.