textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion Updated.

AVIATION...13/06Z TAFs

Areas of fog with LIFR have developed in valleys west of the Cascades, including in Coos, Douglas, Josephine and western Jackson county. Valley fog will spread to most valleys west of the southern Oregon Cascades tonight, 06-09z, including at Medford and Roseburg. Areas of valley fog are also likely to develop late tonight (10-13z) in valleys in western/central Siskiyou County and the Klamath Basin, including Klamath Basin (Klamath Falls) and Shasta Valley (Montague). These conditions will persist through Tuesday morning, then gradually lift and clear. Lower conditions may linger longest in the Rogue/Illinois Valleys and possibly not clearing until 21-22z.

Outside of the valleys, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Coastal locations will remain VFR, except for fog from Coquille Basin which is expected affect North Bend tonight and early Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 256 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026/

DISCUSSION...An upper ridge remains over the eastern Pacific Ocean and western United States, keeping stable conditions in the forecast for at least the next week.

With poor mixing in the forecast, decreased air quality is expected in low-lying areas. An Air Stagnation Advisory across lower elevation portions of Douglas, Josephine, Jackson, Klamath, and Lake counties remains in place through at least Friday morning.

While cool overnight lows are expected for west side valleys, today's fog layer lasting into the afternoon limited daytime heating for west side valleys. While this may impact the chances of overall fog development as well as the density and duration of fog if it develops, the stability of the current air mass suggests that enough moisture will remain in there area for fog to return tonight. A Freezing Fog Advisory for the Scott, Illinois, Applegate, and Rogue valleys is in place to communicate possible hazardous conditions returning to these areas early Tuesday morning. While the Umpqua Valley is also expected to see fog return, warmer overnight lows look to eliminate the possibility of freezing fog. A pattern of northerly winds over the Upper Klamath Lake remains, making fog a possibility for Klamath Falls and surrounding areas as well. For that area, the shorter duration of today's fog suggests that a full Advisory is not necessary for that area. Even for areas without an Advisory product, extra caution is advised when traveling through foggy areas.

The upper ridge looks to strengthen towards the middle and end of the week ahead, bringing warmer daytime temperatures. For Medford, NBM probabilistic guidance has a 65-75% chance for highs of 60 degrees or highs for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Of course, this assumes the overnight fog development pattern changes. Similar above seasonal temperatures of mid 50s to low 60s is expected across inland areas, with coastal areas possibly getting into the mid 60s.

The upper trough looks to stay in place into early next week. Upper pattern imagery is starting to show the ridge flattening and allowing for a change to the pattern near the middle of the week. Ensemble meteograms still have a general expectation for activity in days 7-10, but looking at ensemble panels shows everything from light showers to significant fronts to nothing. While there's little to support a highly confident forecast, the fact that long-term chances for precipitation have not decreased is meaningful. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PST Monday, January 12, 2026...Steep seas will persist through tonight with a long period west swell remaining near or at a peak into this evening. South winds gradually become northerly today into Tuesday.

Conditions briefly improve Tuesday with seas lowering to below 10 ft early Tuesday morning and reaching a minimum at around 7 to 8 ft on Tuesday evening. Another long period swell (peaking around 10 to 12 ft at 15 seconds) builds into the waters early Wednesday, so seas will remain swell dominated through early Wednesday. Meanwhile, northerly winds increase on Wednesday as the pattern transitions to a summer-like pattern under a thermal trough that lingers through the latter half of the week. Swell gradually subsides Thursday night, but seas transition to wind wave dominated seas under gusty north winds. The outlook is for conditions to improve Friday through the weekend into early next week. /BR-y

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 130 PM PST Monday, January 12, 2026...Long period swell will peak today, maintaining a moderate risk of sneaker waves through this afternoon. While there is always a low risk of sneaker waves on any given day, the potential for an enhanced risk of sneaker waves has lowered for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to interference from other wave trains.

If you plan to visit area beaches, please be aware of the dangers sneaker waves pose to beach goers. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches. NEVER turn your back on the ocean! /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freezing Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ024- 026.

Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ023-024-026- 029>031.

CA...Freezing Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.