textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...11/00Z TAFs

VFR prevails across the region under high clouds and gusty north to northwest winds (peaking near 20 kt) at all TAF terminals expected to continue through this evening (around 04Z Monday) before easing around/after sunset.

With offshore flow developing tonight, low-level moisture gets squeezed/scoured somewhat, but models are still showing some along the coast north of Cape Blanco, near Brookings and in portions of the Umpqua Basin. In this case, any ceilings that develop in those areas are likely to be IFR (<1000 ft) and last until the early morning hours Monday before clearing to VFR again by Monday afternoon. Terminals most likely to be affected by IFR tonight into Monday morning are North Bend (60-70% chance) and Roseburg (40-50% chance). Medford's chance is <10%. -Spilde/BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 232 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026/

DISCUSSION...A dry front passing to the north is flattening an upper ridge, allowing for a few degrees of cooling west of the Cascades. Higher pressure remains in northern California and east of the Cascades, keeping warmer temperatures in place this afternoon.

With the dry front passing by this evening, the ridge rebuilds and brings warmer temperatures across the area on Monday and Tuesday. Daytime highs along the coast look to be in the high 60s to low 70s across both days. Valleys west of the Cascades are expected to be in the high 80s to low 90s. East of the Cascades, valleys and basins are forecast to see the mid 80s on Monday then warm to the high 80s on Tuesday. These temperatures may be 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal norms, so extra awareness of how you're feeling during the warmest part of the afternoon is encouraged.

On Wednesday, a compact low remains in the expected pattern but significant timing differences in its expected arrival remain. Models still show a significant temperature range for Wednesday's highs. NBM probabilistic guidance still has a nearly 20 degree range of expected highs for Medford, with an interquartile range (equal 25 percent chances) of 87 and 69 degrees, That sort of uncertainty is usually reserved for 7 days out rather than 3 days out. There's relatively more clarity in other conditions, but still a few details to watch over the next day. Gusty winds are still expected, with 50% chances for Advisory-level winds in the Shasta Valley on Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms are looking unlikely, with modeled CAPE values in the 100-200 J/Kg range. This leaves some scattered showers, mostly over higher terrain and with amounts near 0.2 inches at best.

Cooling is certain behind the low, with a cooling trend in the forest from Thursday through Saturday. Some showers may linger into early Thursday morning depending on the timing of the low's exit to the east, but this seems unlikely (10-20% chances). -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, May 10, 2026...A thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and wind driven steep seas south of Cape Blanco through Monday. Gusty north winds and steep seas are expected to expand north of Cape Blanco Monday afternoon before subsiding again late Monday night through Tuesday. Low pressure will move south of the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday with showers that will at least brush the southern half, except could be farther north if the low takes a more northern track. Winds won't be too strong and remain mostly from the north. A thermal trough pattern could redevelop Friday into next weekend with stronger north winds and steeper seas again, especially south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.