textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

We had roughly 325 cloud to ground flashes Sunday evening according to the national lightning detection network with the vast majority of the lightning in Lake and Klamath Counties. There was some thunderstorm activity in Modoc County, yet nothing pushed west of the Cascades. Storms were wetter and not moving that fast, however, a few surface stations reported wind gusts around 45 mph due to some evaporative cooling from the heavier rain and the dry boundary layer. The storms have diminished this Monday morning with some stratiform rain continuing this morning. The outflow from those storms kicked off a few showers west of the Cascades with just enough rain to wet the ground here at the office.

More of the same is expected this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms in northern Lake and Klamath Counties. the storm prediction center high resolution ensemble forecast(HREF) is again predicting a high probability(~70%) of cloud to ground lightning within 20 km of a point within northern Lake and Klamath Counties. Forecast soundings show enough convective available potential energy(CAPE) with values around 300-600 J/kg. Upper level shear isn't great, so we're looking at pop up storms for most of the afternoon and evening. Some larger hail around 0.75 inches can't be ruled out as it looks like some of the storms were producing that at times Sunday evening according to the maximum estimated size of hail(MESH) from the multi radar multi sensor(MRMS) system. Wind gusts to 40 mph seem the most likely given the inverted V forecast soundings this afternoon.

Eventually, a trough begins to develop in the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday afternoon and evening. the HREF and ensembles hint at more thunderstorm activity in central Oregon. Some of those storms may touch portions of our forecast area, although the majority of lightning activity will remain to our north.

It looks like a weak dry cold front will push towards the Oregon coast on Wednesday and dissipate before it can push onshore by Wednesday evening. In any case, it will be breezy just given the pressure gradient and temperatures might trend a few degrees lower by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Currently Medfords's(MFR) high should trend 5 degrees lower from Tuesday into Wednesday.

Looking at the end of the week, we're in a northwest flow pattern, which should keep temperatures and the weather in check. Highs will be near climatological normals for this time of year.

Heading towards Saturday into Sunday, models are showing more troughing in the Gulf of Alaska with an associated dry cold front pushing into the Pacific Northwest. The timing and strength of the trough is still uncertain, although one would think some relatively cooler temperatures arrive early next week. The NBM does not agree with that opinion right now and is keeping us well in the mid 90's.

-Smith

AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs

Radar is picking up some showers this morning. We'll see another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon around Lake and Klamath Counties. Gusty winds from thunderstorms are possible near Klamath Falls(KLMT). Along the coast, LIFR ceilings will cover portions of the coast this morning. Those ceilings will burn off later this afternoon before they fill back in later tonight.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Monday, July 6, 2026

A slight rise in westerly swell with wind wave seas will support a small craft advisory through Tuesday. Steep seas look to be limited to waters south of Cape Blanco for Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

Currently, northerly winds start to increase on Wednesday morning. This may bring additional areas of unsettled seas to area waters into the end of the week. -TAD/Smith

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 1200 PM PDT Sunday, July 5, 2026

Warm and dry conditions will continue for the next week, with typical afternoon breezes each day. There will be a few periods of concern: the first this afternoon and again tomorrow east of the Cascades, where abundant lightning is expected, and the second being two dry frontal passages that will bring gusty winds and low RH to portions of the area.

There is a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms east of the Cascades, focused mainly over central and southern Lake count. y and eastern Klamath county. Some isolated storms are possible elsewhere east of the Cascades, and over northern California, including the Klamaths, Siskiyous, and Warners. There is limited moisture today, so while rain is expected within the cores of most of these thunderstorms, a few more high based storms, or those along the periphery of the drier air, could produce very little or no rain at the surface. Along with plenty of lightning, gusty and erratic winds of up to 45 mph will be a concern for any storms that develop (especially the drier ones). Also, there is a possibility that some of these showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two linger on into Sunday night/early Monday morning over Lake county.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected Monday afternoon, this time focused a bit farther north over northern Lake and Klamath counties. More moisture will be available then, so dry thunderstorms are less likely, but still possible. Also, we cannot rule out an isolated storm or two over the rest of the East Side and northern California. Again, lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the primary concerns. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for both afternoons, and details can be found at PDXRFWMFR.

Otherwise, high temperatures remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, and afternoon breezes remain typical to slightly enhanced during the next week. This will result in very dry conditions, generally just shy of critical wind and humidity thresholds, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, and potentially again this weekend, as dry cold fronts pass through or just skim by the region.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.