textproduct: Medford

KEY POINTS

* Dry conditions with much warmer temperatures today and Tuesday. Temperatures peak Tuesday and will be the warmest of the forecast period.

* Dry front on Wednesday brings enhanced afternoon breezes and a cooling trend. Best precip chances along coast/Umpqua Basin. Slight chances thunderstorms east of Winter Ridge.

* Another stronger, but still mostly dry front late Friday into Saturday. Sharper cool down for Saturday, best chances of precip remain along coast/Umpqua Divide. Somewhat stronger afternoon winds expected Friday.

* Similar pattern continues next week = no sharp warm ups expected through the middle of next week (6/10).

DISCUSSION

Today (6/1) through Monday (6/8) Aside from a few wisps of high clouds here and there, skies are clear across the entire forecast area this afternoon. The region remains between systems today and Tuesday, with low pressure to the northeast centered over Montana and a stronger/deeper low in the Gulf of Alaska. This puts a shortwave ridge just offshore over the eastern Pacific which will continue a warming trend today and Tuesday. Temperatures will peak on Tuesday, but it'll feel quite warm today with afternoon highs reaching about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday and about 20-30 degrees warmer than late last week. Expect highs in the mid-upper 80s for the West Side with low-mid 70s for the East Side. Highs trend warmer on Tuesday (about 5 degrees for the West, 10 degrees for the East), when the chance of reaching or exceeding 90 degrees here in Medford increases to 75%. Dry conditions continue during this time with seasonable afternoon breezes.

The overall pattern shifts eastward late Tuesday into Wednesday as some energy from the Gulf of Alaska Low brings a weak front through the region. This will be a mostly dry front. There is some potential for some light rain over the marine waters and along the coast, but the front is falling apart after it moves onshore so inland areas will remain dry. There is some weak instability along and east of the Cascades (Crater Lake north and east), which points to some slight thunder chances in that region. Moisture, however, is marginal, so it'll be difficult for anything to get going but we have introduced a slight chance (10-15%) for thunderstorms mainly east of Winter Ridge. For most folks, the most notable aspect of this front will be some enhanced afternoon breezes (15-25 mph)and around 10 degrees cooler for afternoon highs on Wednesday. Zonal flow persists behind this weak front on Thursday, so after a cloudy start for folks along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin, afternoon highs will be similar to those of Wednesday.

Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska swings into the region late Friday into Saturday, bringing another decaying front and a sharper cool down for Saturday. There's some uncertainty on just how far south this trough and decaying front make it with the EC being the farther south solution compared to the GFS. Either suite of solutions maintains the best chances (20-40%) for light precipitation to be along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin, but there could be some sprinkles (10% chance) for areas as far south as the OR/CA border. Expect another round of enhanced afternoon breezes Friday which could be a bit stronger than what's expected on Wednesday (20-30 mph gusts).

The trough moves fairly quickly through the region, making it east of the area by Sunday afternoon. A shortwave ridge follows behind, bringing a warming trend for Sunday into Monday, but still not as warm as what's expected for today and Tuesday. Beyond Monday, models have varying solutions on whether another Gulf of Alaska Low moves through the region (30-40% chance for cooler with NW precip chances) or we remain in a more zonal flow with some slightly building heights (60-70% chance for warmer and drier). Either way, we don't see any sharp warm ups in the forecast through the middle of next week. /BR-y

AVIATION...01/18Z TAFs

Stable conditions aloft look to keep VFR levels over area terminals through the TAF period. Periods of gusty winds are possible along the Oregon coast this afternoon and evening, with winds easing into the night. Inland areas will see normal diurnal breezes.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Monday, June 1, 2026

The thermal tough pattern will weaken today as it shifts inland, which will bring steadily decreasing winds through the afternoon and overnight. Very steep seas will persist across the outer waters south of Cape Blanco through the afternoon. Steep seas will gradually retreat southward this evening, first lingering across all areas south of Reedsport, then south of Cape Blanco in the outer waters late tonight into Tuesday morning. Improved conditions are expected for all areas Tuesday through Wednesday under a light west-northwest swell. A weak trough could bring some light showers to the waters early Wednesday.

North winds ramp up briefly on Thursday, likely bringing steep seas to areas from Gold Beach southward. Otherwise, conditions are expected remain below advisory criteria through much of the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday June 1, 2026

A warm and dry period is expected as a weak upper level ridge remains over the area through Tuesday. Daily high temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year, with generally light winds (easterly over terrain), and typically dry minimum humidities.

An upper level trough passes over the region Wednesday. This will be a mostly dry front, with some light showers possible along the coast and over the Cascades, and isolated thunderstorms are possible east of the Cascades, mainly north and east of Crater Lake. Instability is weak, and with the lack of moisture, it will be difficult for showers to develop, much less thunderstorms, but it is possible.

The front will also produce gusty late morning and afternoon winds across most of the area Wednesday, but fortunately humidities will trend higher, so we should stay well above any critical thresholds. Breezy afternoon winds and somewhat cooler temperatures arrive behind the front and persist through the weekend, with temperatures dropping to near or only slightly above normal for early June.

Another, weak and mostly dry front arrives this weekend, with gusty afternoon winds being the primary concern Friday and Saturday. Humidities again look to remain above any thresholds for most of the area, but may drop just to those thresholds for an hour or two over portions of the far East Side, namely eastern Modoc and Lake counties. -BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ376.