textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Typical summer weather for the end of this week: Continued slightly hotter than normal temperatures and slightly lower than normal humidities, gusty afternoon winds, strongest east of the Cascades.

* Trough approaching the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-35 mph) Friday-Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring a Red Flag Warning for much of Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake counties (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday).

* A thunderstorm risk develops early next week. Best chances on Tuesday, and east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side.

DISCUSSION

Forecast confidence/model agreement is high through Monday. This short term forecast is the story of two troughs near the southeast coast of Alaska, and a persistent ridge centered over the 4 corners/Great Basin. The approach of the first trough will tighten pressure gradients on Friday, with peak values during the afternoon and early evening expected to produce critical conditions for much of Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake counties. It will remain very dry, and the gradient will barely weaken on Saturday and Sunday, with peak speeds expected to be just a couple or few mph weaker than Friday. Hot, and dry conditions continue on Friday and Saturday with a stable air mass.

At this juncture, the NBM does not indicate a significant enough risk of thunderstorms to warrant including in the official forecast. But, that may change over the next couple of days. There is a potential for thunderstorms that is greater than zero, as early as Sunday afternoon. Convection is expected to be capped by warm air aloft over at least southwest Oregon. Weak instability and an influx of mid-level moisture may produce a few cells from northern California into south central Oregon.

Mid and upper level moisture increases early Monday into Monday night. There is a likelihood of upper level clouds hindering heating, but also some potential for thunderstorms with higher than normal bases...increasing the potential that any thunderstorms that develop end up being dry thunderstorms.

Uncertainty increases Tuesday with models diverging roughly into a camp that keeps the second trough on the GFS idea of a track across British Columbia and northern Washington, and the ECMWF solution that forms a cut-off offshore from northern Oregon. There is actually a third potential that a cut-off forms closer to shore. The first scenario would most likely produce a slight chance risk for the east side, the second scenario of the trough offshore is favored by a slightly larger portion of ensemble members and would limit the convective risk, but the third scenario of a trough near to our coast is a classic pattern for convective development. As such, there is a potential for the thunderstorm risk at mid- week to either diminish or increase in comparison to Tuesday. Uncertainty is high late in the week. In any case, any noticeable cooling is highly unlikely for next week.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 PM Thursday, July 9, 2026

Seasonable temperatures and humidities are expected for the remainder of the week, with elevated to critical fire weather concerns increasing Friday and continuing through the weekend. Areas with critical fire weather conditions have led to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning starting Friday and continuing through Sunday.

Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) are expected Friday through the weekend. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens on Friday. When combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are likely across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 for Friday and continuing through Sunday. While wind speeds decrease overnight with improved overnight humidities, fire weather conditions will remain heightened Friday through Sunday.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak on Saturday when humidities trend lower (low teens/single digits possible), winds increase some (25-40 mph) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. That said, critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue for Sunday.

A potential thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of next week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which could send monsoonal moisture into the region. Latest model guidance has shifted a bit on the overall pattern set up. The region will remain wedged between strong high pressure to the east and incoming troughs from the west/northwest. The proximity of those troughs could be enough to keep the flow more southwest or even westerly, and the more westerly the flow, the lower the chances for thunder, especially west of the Cascades. Uncertainty remain, but currently looks like the best chances for thunderstorms would be across eastern areas Monday-Wednesday. We'll need to monitor the potential for any shortwaves/tropical activity that models try to develop and send our way early next week. On the other hand, if models continue this more eastward shift of the incoming troughs/southwest to west flow, we could potentially see an extended period of winds/RH concerns vs thunderstorms. Stay tuned as details become more clear with future model runs.

AVIATION...10/06Z TAFs

LIFR and IFR marine stratus is expected along the coast tonight, north of Cape Blanco, and also near Brookings and will persist through Friday morning with gradual lifting and clearing in the afternoon. Then, IFR will redevelop along the coast Friday evening beginning around 03z.

All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period. Gusty afternoon and evening winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening, strongest east of the Cascades (gusts 20-30 mph).

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, July 9, 2026

A thermal trough will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas into this evening. Very steep, hazardous warning level seas are expected south of Gold Beach, and generally beyond 5 nm from shore and there could be a brief period of northerly gales in this area in the late afternoon and early evening. Conditions improve later tonight through Friday into Saturday morning as the thermal trough weakens and winds ease, but steep seas will continue for all areas south of Cape Blanco through Friday evening. Gusty north winds will increase again from early on Sunday into Sunday evening, with steep seas likely south of Cape Blanco. Improved conditions are expected to follow on Monday before the thermal trough strengthens again from Tuesday into the latter half of next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.