textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...25/06Z TAFs

Areas of LIFR in valley fog is expected to develop tonight (between 06-10z) in the Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg, and the Grants Pass area in the Rogue Valley. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR in the early afternoon on Sunday. At Medford, expect VFR conditions through TAF period due to drying and low dew points. Additionally, guidance only indicates a very low chance for fog (10-15%). Elsewhere, expect VFR to persist through the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Saturday, January 24, 2026

Winds have been gradually diminishing this afternoon, with steep seas becoming dominated by a moderate west swell. Conditions are expected to improve early next week. A more active pattern is expected to begin Tuesday afternoon, with increasing southerly winds (approaching advisory strength in the outer waters).

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 425 PM PST Sat Jan 24 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...

Key Points:

* Widespread precipitation-free conditions through early next week - Morning fog for some westside valleys - Precipitation amounts have been trending downward

* Cold airmass continues tonight

Further Details:

Persistence is going to be the key for tonight. Models have done really bad handling fog/low clouds. Given conditions look similar tonight, we are anticipating fog again tonight which will keep radiational cooling lower and hence warmer temperatures for some areas than it would be with clear skies. Trended temperatures to account for fog/low clouds. For areas across western Siskiyou County, temperatures will drop down to the upper teens, but this will fall just short of the criteria which is 6 to 15 degrees for a cold weather advisory. Either way, we are looking at another night of well below normal (~10 degrees) temperatures.

We are still eyeing middle of next week for precipitation chances. The current trend has seen an increase in QPF amounts from ensemble data for coastal areas. However, much of the westside has a very low probability (10%-30%) of reaching 0.10"/6hrs. The coast and areas near the coast have see an increase to around 35%-45% for 0.10"/6hrs. That said, this really isn't anything to write home about. The pattern is very progressive, so it does make sense to see these low QPF probabilities. What we need to happen is have the long wave trough which is consuming much of central and eastern CONUS to break down. This doesn't look possible anytime soon. Cluster analysis of 500mb indicates this pattern holding on through Day9 which essentially favors a ridge over the PacNW. Guidance from the Climate Prediction Center (as of today) is indication in their 8-14 day outlook a very strong signal for above normal temperatures in addition to a signal for below normal precipitation.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.