textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Very low(<5%) chance of a thunderstorm around Lake and Klamath Counties Thursday.

* Temperatures warm up on Friday.

* Dry cold front stalls out over southern Oregon on Saturday with winds trending higher and cooler temperatures in some areas.

* Temperatures heat up Monday and Tuesday with moderate heat risk in valleys west of the Cascades.

DISCUSSION

Another strong marine push has kept temperatures in check around the coastal valleys and the Umpqua Valley of this afternoon. These clouds will eventually break up by the late afternoon with most areas still rising into the 80's. The short wave we've been monitoring for the last few days has pushed into northern Oregon, so we'll miss out on any thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Most of the smoke from the Castle fire continues the daily push east in the afternoon and evening before settling and draining down the Cascade foothills in Douglas County.

The story remains the same on Thursday as another short wave is anticipated to swing through Oregon during the afternoon and evening under this west to southwest flow. The convecting allowing models in the HREF are not anticipating any convective activity. Meanwhile, a few ECMWF members are showing hints at something. Overall, the chances of a weak shower or isolated thunderstorm remain under 5% in northern Lake and Klamath Counties Thursday afternoon.

High temperatures trend warmer by roughly 5 degrees on Friday to around 98 here in Medford. The NWS heat risk algorithm is suggesting pockets of moderate heat risk in some valleys. Moderate heat risk impacts those exposed to the elements and those most sensitive to heat exhaustion. Overall, there are minimal impacts due to the heat on Friday as we nudge a few degrees warmer than normal.

Saturday is the big change still with models forecasting a strong dry cold front pushing through the Pacific Northwest. The front kind of sags and stalls out when it gets to our forecast area by Saturday evening. The NBM is lowering high temperatures by about 5 to 10 degrees with the higher drops around Coos and Douglas Counties. Since the front does stall a bit, Modoc and portions or southern Lake or Siskiyou won't see any change in temperatures on Saturday. We should also see winds pick up a bit by the afternoon and evening hours, although it shouldn't be impactful.

With all this colder air moving in behind the front, the extreme forecast index(EFI) was picking up on unusually cold temperatures Saturday night with EFI values around -0.6 to -0.8 for late July. We are forecasting some lows in the mid 30's around Chemult and perhaps sub freezing temperatures south of Chemult in the Klamath Marsh area. The cooler than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as an upper level wave progresses through the Pacific Northwest. However, this colder air will be short lived.

Some upper level energy from the aforementioned wave will swing through Washington Sunday night with another dry cold front flying down the Oregon coast. Pressure gradients help kick off a thermal trough and temperatures warm up west of the Cascades Monday afternoon as high pressure builds. That thermal trough will linger into Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday as Medford is expected to hit 100 degrees on both days. Both the ECMWF and GFS want to push the thermal trough eastwards towards the end of Wednesday, so we'll see if we can get some stronger onshore flow towards the end of the week next week.

-Smith

AVIATION...30/06Z TAFs

MVFR/IFR in stratus will develop along the coast overnight between 06-09z and persist through around 18z. This will mainly affect areas from near Cape Blanco northward and Brookings south.

High clouds are expected to move into southwest Oregon Thursday morning. This will likely keep MVFR ceilings from developing in the Umpqua Basin. Current guidance keeps Roseburg VFR through the TAF period. The National Blend of Models guidance shows a low (15-20%) chance for MVFR at Roseburg. So, we will continue to monitor this.

Elsewhere, inland areas are expected to remain at VFR levels with clear skies and normal diurnal breezes for most of the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Wednesday, July 29, 2026

North winds will gradually increase today, reaching advisory criteria south of Port Orford and beyond 10 nm from shore. This will bring borderline steep seas Wednesday, primarily from Gold Beach southward. Winds ease on Thursday with improved conditions expected through early Saturday.

On Saturday, a low pressure system passing to the north may bring very strong northerly winds over area waters as it tightens the gradient and enhances the thermal trough. Although the timing and strength of these winds are uncertain, the latest models are showing a high likelihood of gales and very steep seas, and nearly a 40 percent chance of storm force gusts by early next week. -TAD/BPN

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Overall, the rest of the week will see generally normal summer weather but with some conditions worth addressing. Very slight chances (About 5%) remain for afternoon/evening dry thunderstorms east of the Cascades for today and Thursday. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures about 5 degrees above normal before cooling to about 5 degrees below normal over the weekend.

A dry cold front is bringing elevated fire weather concerns for Saturday, as this front looks to bring strengthened northwest winds across the area. The highest winds will likely be along coastal headlands and across the east side, but the Shasta and eastern Rogue (From Shady Cove to Gold Hill to Ashland) may see gusty winds funnel through. Details are coarse at this point, but currently winds stay short of critical speeds and RHs see a slight increase while wind speeds are at their highest. This period will be watched closely as the details resolve. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.