textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Persistent low pressure this week brings seasonably active, beneficial weather with mainly low impacts.

* Beneficial rainfall mainly along and west of the Cascades today through Tuesday. Snow levels lower to around 5000-5500 ft tonight, bringing 2-5" of snow around the Diamond Lake/Crater Lake area...mainly early this morning and during Tuesday morning.

* Temperatures trend cooler today, remaining steady through the week and fluctuating in a range from around 10 degrees below normal to near normal.

* Low pressure for Wednesday through Saturday brings continued shower chances, mainly for Coos and Douglas counties northward.

DISCUSSION

Upper level low pressure has moved into the Pacific Northwest and will remain the dominant feature at least through Saturday. The main result is wet weather early this morning and later this evening through Tuesday morning. Later, lighter rain chances will be focused on Coos and Douglas counties northward

Snow levels are near 5000 feet this morning with an accumulation what looks to be a few inches near Diamond Lake and an accumulation also for the remainder of the southern Oregon Cascades, northern Klamath County and the higher terrain near the border of Klamath and Lake counties. East side shower and snow shower chances diminish after 8 to 9 AM this morning, and the east side will then remain mostly dry for the week in the westerly flow pattern. In comparison, northern California will have a slightly elevated chance of light showers both this morning and Tuesday morning. Meantime, activity will be focused in western Oregon early this morning and later this evening through Tuesday morning. Snow levels with this second, weaker trough will be a bit lower around 4700 feet and will bring up to an additional 2 inches of snow to Diamond Lake/Crater Lake.

Low pressure settles over the eastern Pacific/Pacific Northwest from Wednesday into the weekend. This low looks to linger just offshore for the remainder of the week, then elongate and sort of split Friday into Saturday. The northern portion of the energy lingers over the Canadian Providences while the southern portion swings through sometime Saturday/Sunday. With the low lingering just offshore, this leads to drier conditions persisting Thursday and Friday, and possibly into Saturday depending on how fast that southern tier of energy swings through. There are position differences, however, on how close to shore that low pressure lingers, so it's possible we see more showery weather continue during this time as well.

Currently, the forecast maintains a broad 20-40% chance of showers Thursday through Saturday. This is a fairly cool air mass settling into the region, and snow levels are forecast to hover around 4000 ft, even down to 3000 ft at times Thursday into the weekend. We're not anticipating widespread precipitation, however, so this will limit any wintry impacts. Light precipitation Friday night has the highest probability of being limited to the coast. Uncertainty increases a bit for the weekend. A slight chance to chance of showers follows for Saturday, with the ECMWF suite of solutions indicating a higher probability of west side focused rain, a sharper trough, than the GEFS. At this range, still expect the details and timing of rain chances to come into better focus with future model runs.

High temperatures this week will be fairly steady and average around 10-15 degrees below normal...highs in the mid 50s for the West Side, mid 40s for the East Side. Low temperatures will be quite chilly, especially east of the Cascades.

The outlook is for at least brief ridging early next week, Sunday into Monday, with dry conditions.

AVIATION...26/12Z TAFs

A front will continue moving across the area this morning with rain and post-frontal showers. Ceilings will be mainly VFR, but with areas of mountain obscuration and occasional MVFR. Showers will be most numerous in southwest Oregon. Coverage will become more scattered for the afternoon into the evening with ceilings rising.

This evening into Tuesday morning, expect rain and MVFR along the coast with areas of MVFR also inland, mainly in the Umpqua Basin and along the Cascades. Around 12Z on Tuesday morning, MVFR and rainfall coverage is expected to reach a maximum in southwest Oregon.

MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Monday, October 26, 2026

Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue through the week. A weak cold front will continue a slight chance of thunderstorms north of Coos Bay early this morning. Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength. But, a series of seasonably weak disturbances will produce the strongest northwest winds in the Washington and northern Oregon offshore waters. Wave heights will be near the low end of Small Craft Advisory criteria. But, this will bring continued steep, fresh west-northwest swell dominated seas for our area into Tuesday, and possibly through Wednesday night. The active pattern is expected to persist late in the week with slight, gradual improvement in conditions.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.