textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal through the weekend and into early next week.

* Widespread light to locally moderate showers are expected across the entire forecast area Saturday and Saturday night.

* Dry conditions return Sunday through mid/late next week.

* Along the coast, there is a moderate risk for sneaker waves Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* By late next week, early signs pointing towards active weather returning to the area.

DISCUSSION

An upper low is centered offshore of Washington and northern Oregon today. This is bringing some isolated showers into the coast and Douglas County. The upper trough will elongate and the low will shift southward off the southern Oregon coast on Saturday, sending moisture into the area and bringing an increase in showers Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Models and ensembles support widespread light to locally, moderate showers developing on Saturday with highest chances (50-70%) for showers across northern California and across the mountains from the Southern Oregon Cascades west. Periods of light showers are expected (30-60% chance) in valleys west of the Cascades and along the coast as well. East of the Cascades, in southern Oregon, expect scattered to isolated showers (20-50% chance).

For Halloween evening (5 to 8 pm PDT), with scattered to widespread showers across the area, expect a potential for periods of light rain for most areas. Precipitation amounts are generally light with around a trace to 0.10 inches in 3 hours and the higher amounts are mainly over the mountains but also possible in the Ashland area, southern Shasta Valley and the Mount Shasta area. Locally moderate showers are also possible in Modoc and far southern Lake counties.

The trough shifts inland Saturday night with showers continuing. Then as the trough shifts eastward on Sunday, expect showers to decrease in coverage.

Breezy to gusty southerly winds are likely today and Saturday afternoon for areas east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley.

Snow levels of around 5000-6000 ft on Saturday (and locally 4000-4500 feet west of the Cascades and in far western Siskiyou County), will lower Saturday night and Sunday morning to 4000-5000 ft. This combined with showers may bring a light dusting of snow across higher mountains, mainly above 5000 feet.

High pressure returns Sunday night through Tuesday, bringing cool to cold morning temperatures, warmer daytime temperatures and dry weather. Areas of morning fog are expected Sunday and Monday morning for inland valleys and along the coast.

Looking further out, a weak low moves into northern California from the west around mid week and will bring a chance (20-40%) for showers, mainly from the Cascades west and across northern California. Then a weakening front moves into the Pacific Northwest Thursday into Thursday night with chances for light precipitation over the area. However, this front may weaken substantially as it moves onshore, limiting how much precipitation falls. A potentially stronger front may move into the area late in the week or into the weekend. However, ensembles show significant variability on the strength of this system with some pointing to the front weakening as it moves onshore and others bringing widespread light to moderate precipitation.

AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs

High to mid clouds have spread into the area with areas of showers, mainly along the coast and into the Umpqua and Southern Oregon Cascades. Conditions will remain mainly VFR through this afternoon with local mountain obscurations and local MVFR possible in showers. Shower activity decreases this evening. Late tonight in Saturday morning, areas of IFR/LIFR are expected to develop in the Umpqua Basin. Tonight and Saturday morning, there is a low chance (15-20%) for IFR/LIFR along the coast, including at North Bend.

MARINE...Updated 1100 AM PDT Friday, October 30, 2026

Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue through the weekend. Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength through at least early next week. Seas will be low through Sunday morning, dominated by a mix of west-northwest and south swell. A building west-northwest swell is expected to move into the waters Sunday and Monday, with swell building from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to around 7 to 9 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon. This will result in combined seas of 8 to 10 feet on Monday. Seas gradually lower Tuesday night into Wednesday.

BEACH HAZARDS

Updated 1100 AM PDT Friday, October 30, 2026...Guidance continues to depict a long period WNW swell building into the area Sunday and persisting into early next week. Originating from a storm currently over the western Aleutian Islands, the swell arrives along the Oregon coast Sunday afternoon at 2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to 4 to 6 feet at 19 seconds Sunday night then to around 6 to 9 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon. So expect the sneaker wave risk will be most prominent Sunday night and Monday. Wave periods drop below 15 seconds Monday night; as a result, the risk of sneaker waves will lessen by Tuesday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for PZZ350-356.