textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...01/00z TAFs

Aside from persistent MVFR stratus in the Umpqua Basin, VFR conditions prevail across the region with high level cirrus streaming overhead. Offshore flow across the area should keep fog development limited along the coast and east of the Cascades/Klamath Basin, so VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period there. There could be a few hours overnight for some scattered LIFR conditions at North Bend/Coquille Basin, but easterly flow should keep this from persisting.

For the Rogue/Illinois/Applegate Valleys and the Umpqua Basin, IFR/LIFR conditions are likely tonight into Monday morning, then clear to VFR by 18-21z. High level cloud cover is expected to continue overnight and this could limit the extent of the fog development and persistence. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across northern California through the TAF period. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 247 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025/

DISCUSSION...High pressure over the Pacific Ocean has built a resilient ridge, with the front edge remaining over the area. With this pattern, seasonal temperatures and mild weather looks to continue through most of the week. Northerly or northwesterly flow will keep midlevel or high level clouds moving through the sky during the day. Drier air over the area tonight looks to bring cooler temperatures into early Monday morning, and

An "inside slider" (shortwave troughs that travel down the ridge and to the southeast into a deeper continental trough) may interrupt the general pattern early in the week. The first slider approaches on Monday, raising overnight lows into early Tuesday morning. Some slight chances for rainfall (25-50%) are present along the coast and northern Douglas County during the day Tuesday. Any rain that does fall in these areas will likely be measured in the hundreths of an inch. Overnight lows will drop across the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and areas along and east of the Cascades will see cooler daytime highs on Wednesday. A significantly weaker shortwave trough is in the upper pattern late Wednesday, with some imagery showing the trough traveling farther east. Unless this trough deepens and shifts west, it looks to have little to no impact.

The NBM shows signs of precipitation along the coast and Cascades as early as Thursday afternoon, but this may be optimistic by a day. Deterministic imagery for the ECMWF and GFS models show a cold front managing to flatten the Pacific ridge enough to bring some showers west of and along the Cascades late Friday into Saturday. There's some divergence beyond, with the ECMWF drying out by Sunday and the GFS staying active through the weekend and into next week. Meteograms for both models generally support their respective deterministic patterns, although the ECMWF ensemble has ~20% of its members showing continuing rainfall. If the GFS outcome holds true, precipitation amounts and snow levels will be a focus of future forecasts. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, November 30, 2025...Northerly winds will increase this afternoon/evening, with gusts south of Port Orford reaching Small Craft Advisory strength. The strongest north winds will shift to the outer waters south of Cape Blanco tonight, with steep seas expected to persist over the southern waters at least into Wednesday. Seas may also become steep north of Cape Blanco on Tuesday. An incoming long period west swell is expected to peak at 7 to 11 ft Monday into Tuesday with a period around 21 seconds. Conditions may briefly improve for Thursday, but the pattern is likely to turn more active late in the week.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, November 30, 2025...Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 21 to 22 seconds early Monday morning. This swell is expected to peak at around 7 to 11 ft at 16 to 18 seconds Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. While seas will be steep, high surf conditions are not expected along beaches. If you have plans to visit the coast on Monday, please be aware of this sneaker wave potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to the beaches for another day. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean!

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for PZZ356.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ356.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ376.