textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation discussion updated.

AVIATION...28/00Z TAFs

VFR prevails across the area, with the exception of MVFR along the coast and coastal mountains, and within any heavier rain showers. The highest chances for isolated showers continue over Coos and Douglas counties as well as along the Cascades, although a stray drizzle can fall nearly anywhere through Sunday morning. Late this evening and tonight, expect widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings west of the Cascades, along with terrain obscurations. Showers will taper off through Sunday morning, with VFR then prevailing for the remainder of the day.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 249 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026/

DISCUSSION...With a low pressure system passing to the northeast, northwest flow aloft will guide conditions through Sunday. Even with temperatures increasing slightly, Sunday's highs look to be 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms. With cooler temperatures continuing into the night, local areas of frost conditions are possible for most areas east of the Cascades tonight as well as Sunday night. Areas with clear skies overnight are more likely to have slightly cooler overnight lows. Shower chances fluctuate between 30-60% for Coos and Douglas counties, with single digit chances elsewhere.

While the upper trough remains in place, activity looks to decrease to start the week ahead. With the low pressure system moving away from the area, atmospheric moisture looks to decrease which takes any chances for precipitation away. A series of shortwaves embedded in the upper flow could make afternoon and evening breezes a bit stronger than usual, especially over higher terrain, but nothing that approaches hazardous levels. At this moment, guidance is not seeing these shortwaves bringing thunderstorm chances through Wednesday, likely because of the drier air aloft. However, long-term data is fairly coarse. Given the impact that these storms can have, please stay tuned for any updates to thunderstorm chances.

On Thursday, GFS deterministic imagery shows a weak front moving over the area. This front could bring increased moisture and instability, with that imagery showing activity east of the Cascades on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. CAPE values look modest as of right now (100-200 J/Kg), so some light showers and possibly breezy winds would be the main effect. Mild weather looks to continue west of the Cascades. ECMWF imagery shows a weaker front that fails to bring any precipitation to the area.

A weak ridge may bring some warming for the 4th of July weekend, but overall temperatures look to be at or just above seasonal levels. Meteogram guidance for both ECMWF and GFS models show minimal chances of precipitation for the holiday, aside from a few ambitious outlier outcomes. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376.