textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Little or no changes to the forecast for this cycle with mostly low impact weather conditions continuing for the foreseeable future. We did have a brief shower out there around midnight that wet the ground (but alas, nothing measurable here at the office). Today, an upper ridge axis will remain along the West Coast, pushing to near or just east of the Cascades this afternoon and tonight. WSW flow aloft will persist with a series of offshore fronts that'll graze NW sections of the CWA with some light rain/showers at times through Friday evening. It'll be breezy at times at the beaches and coastal headlands. Areas farther south and east (and inland) will remain dry and mild (aside from cold mornings over the East Side), but sunshine will be dimmed by plenty of mid and high level clouds.

The first half of the weekend should be dry for everyone. As the ridge axis shifts slightly eastward into the Intermountain West/Great Basin, a stronger offshore trough will approach the PacNW late Saturday/Saturday night, and then move onshore Sunday. This will bring our best chance at rainfall over the next 7 days, but much like the last front, this one will lose its punch as it moves inland. Highest precip probabilities are 70-90% along the coast and into portions of western Douglas and Josephine counties, but diminish to 30-50% for the Rogue Valley (around 60% for the Cascades and Siskiyous of western Siskiyou County). East of the Cascades, most areas have low chance PoPs of 10-30% with this front. QPF at this time looks to be generally 0.25-0.50 of an inch along the coast, with 0.10 of an inch or less for the west side valleys and over to the Cascades. Once again, it could skip over us (Medford) completely. We're not seeing strong winds with this front either. While it might be breezy in the Shasta Valley and over the East Side Sunday, there's just not enough wind to support anything that would be considered advisory level.

The main support for this front will exit the area Sunday night and upper ridging will take hold Monday. That will begin another long stretch of dry, mild weather that will last most, if not all, of next week. Even if we were to get a Pacific system to try to break down the ridge at some point late next week, it will likely be met with resistance, weaken or just fall apart. Climate Prediction Center continues to show odds favoring below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures through week 2, which is through Feb 11.

AVIATION...29/12Z TAFs

Lots of mid and high level clouds out there this morning, but with mostly VFR prevailing. Some west side valleys and coastal areas could see patchy fog this morning (local LIFR), but this should be short-lived. An offshore front may bring occasional light rain/showers to the coast, over Douglas County and/or near the Oregon Cascades, but ceilings should largely remain VFR.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Thursday, January 29, 2026

A series of offshore fronts will maintain unsettled conditions over the marine waters through late this week. South winds are expected to remain at or above advisory strength, strongest north of Cape Blanco. This will maintain some steep wind seas which will combine with a series of larger west swells. Conditions may briefly improve Friday night into Saturday, but another front could bring stronger south winds and steep seas again late Saturday into Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.