textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Plenty of cumulus clouds are still around this afternoon as we transition to a more zonal flow pattern with some short waves traversing the forecast area. This will result in a low chance of showers in northern California today. A thunderstorm is not out of the question, although the probability is less than 10% based on the latest HREF lightning probabilities. With a little more clearing tonight, temperatures should actually drop into the lower 40's west of the Cascades and lower 30's east of the Cascades. Those overnight low temperatures were warmer last night because of the cloud cover, although that shouldn't be a problem tonight.

We'll begin the gradual warm up on Sunday as highs push about 5 degrees warmer compared to today. No weather impacts are anticipated as high pressure begins to build.

By Sunday night, a short wave links up with another wave in the northern Rockies and becomes briefly cutoff. We will see light east flow develop over the higher terrain Sunday night and that will warm us up further Monday into Tuesday. One could also analyze a weak thermal trough on Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures along the coast will warm notably on Monday with highs in the upper to mid 70's near Brookings.

By Wednesday afternoon or evening, another upper level wave will arrive along the Oregon coast. Models are predicting spotty showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the region. It looks like the best chances will be east of the Cascades Wednesday afternoon. There is still variance in the ensemble forecasts, specifically the amount of precipitation. It's worth noting about 15% of ENS ensemble members have no precipitation over all of Oregon on Wednesday, so it could still be a very dry day even with this wave moving onshore.

Between Thursday and Saturday, the flow pattern looks zonal and still very progressive with another trough arriving around Saturday evening of next week. The models look fairly wet and the PoP forecast is around 20 to 40 percent for the coast and areas around the Umpqua Valley. The PoP drops off notably farther to the south and east during the day. The thunderstorm threat comes to mind Saturday afternoon and evening, although the convective available potential energy(CAPE) looks fairly low on the ensembles. It will be something to watch in future forecasts.

AVIATION...31/06Z TAFs

VFR should prevail for most locations into Sunday morning, but some patchy IFR ceilings are possible in the Umpqua and Coquille Basins late tonight and early Sunday between 09- 16z. Saturday afternoon and evening, expect VFR conditions areawide. Afternoon/evening breezes will be fairly typical, and strongest along the coast where peak winds in the 25-30 kt range are expected.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Saturday, May 30, 2026

A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas into Monday. For today, hazardous conditions are expected south of Cape Blanco, with very steep seas expected south of Pistol River. North winds will peak Sunday afternoon and evening, reaching gales from Gold Beach southward and beyond 2 nm from shore. This will also bring worsening conditions north of Cape Blanco, with conditions hazardous to small craft expected for all areas and very steep seas expected from Bandon southward.

Winds ease some Sunday night and even moreso on Monday, but steep to very steep seas are likely to continue through Monday. Conditions improve for all areas by Tuesday as the thermal trough pushes inland and north winds weaken below advisory levels. Below advisory conditions likely persist through the remainder of the week with a low west-northwest persistent swell. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350- 370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-370- 376.

Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ376.