textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Another hot day today (5-10 degrees above normal), but slightly cooler than yesterday. Cooling trend continues into the weekend.

* Dry front pushes through region today into Friday. Gusty winds/low RH this afternoon bring elevated fire weather concerns east of the Cascades. Very slight chance (5%) of thunderstorms across far northern California.

* Increasing chances of showers/light precipitation on Saturday, highest north of OR/CA border and along/west of Cascades. 15-25% for thunderstorms from the coast to the Cascades. Strong winds east of Cascades possible.

* Significantly cooler Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures around 15-20 degrees below normal.

* Dry conditions return Sunday, with warmer (though still around 5-10 degrees below normal) temperatures returning Monday into next week.

DISCUSSION

Clear skies prevail for most of the area this afternoon. Marine stratus lingers over the marine waters and along the immediate coast. Some mid and high level clouds are streaming west to east just south of the OR/CA border. Radar even shows returns associated with this cloud cover, but most surface observations don't indicate anything making it to the ground. A few sites (Klamath Falls, Lakeview) have reported a trace, and Strawberry RAWS has recorded 0.01" in the last 6 hours. While the better instability is farther south, guidance does show some potential for an isolated thunderstorm (~5% chance) across far eastern Modoc along the Warners this afternoon.

Gusty west to northwest winds will develop this afternoon as an upper level trough sags southward over the PacNW today. Fire weather concerns increase some today due to these gusty winds, especially east of the Cascades. Conditions aren't quite expected to reach critical values today, and even if they were, recent moisture has greatly lowered fire weather concerns for the time being. High temperatures trend cooler by another 10 degrees or so on Friday as the base of a broad trough remains over the region and there will likely be another round of gusty winds Friday afternoon.

A stronger low drops over the area on Saturday, bringing a much more significant cooldown for the weekend and stronger winds to the region. The mid-level jet associated with this low peaks around 35 to 40 kts Saturday before pushing southeastward and strengthening a bit. This will limit any headlines for gusty winds, but expect widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph to common east of the Cascades/northern California and the higher terrain. Some of the windiest spots could gust to 40 mph Saturday afternoon. Despite these winds, fire weather concerns will be mitigated by increasing daytime RHs on Saturday compared to today/Friday. Aside from gusty winds, Saturday will feel quite cool, especially compared to today. High temperatures will top out around 15-20 degrees below normal, feeling more on par with late October than mid September. Widespread showers will develop west of the Cascades on Saturday with some scattered activity across the East Side as well but primarily north of Highway 140. Precipitation chances remain highest along/west of the Cascades and north of the OR/CA border and amounts are generally expected to be in the 0.15"-0.25" for the coast and north of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide, with a few hundreths for the rest of the area southward to the state border. Instability with this trough will bring a chance (15-25%) for thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly from the coast inland to the Southern Oregon Cascades.

This low quickly shifts east of the area on Sunday and conditions will trend drier. There could be some lingering showers across far northern areas, but most areas will see a dry day on Sunday. Well below normal temperatures will continue through Sunday, and we'll need to monitor the potential for frost/freeze products for portions of the East Side. Current guidance gives about a 40% chance for low temperatures to reach 32 degrees in the Klamath Basin Sunday morning, with about a 20% chance for areas across the Modoc. Temperatures trend warmer on Monday onward, though remaining below normal through around midweek. /BR-y

AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs

LIFR conditions in marine stratus persist along the coast north of Cape Blanco and over the marine waters. There should be some clearing this afternoon as gusty north winds increase along the coast, but improvement may be brief over the marine waters. Inland, VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, with mid-high level clouds streaming west to east across northern California. Expect gusty winds to develop across the area this afternoon, then ease after sunset.

IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to return to the coast this evening, then persist into Friday morning. Marine stratus will make a push inland tonight, likely filling portions of the Umpqua Basin by sunrise with low end VFR ceilings. It doesn't look quite deep enough to "spill over" the Rogue-Umqpua Divide, but there could be some patches of clouds along the terrain in the Rogue/Illinois Valleys around sunrise Friday morning.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, September 10, 2026

North winds will bring steep seas through Friday, highest south of Nesika Beach and from about 5 to 30 NM from shore. Low pressure will move in Friday night into Saturday with showers and even a chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Even so, winds and seas should subside this weekend before potentially ramping up again Sunday night into Monday. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.