textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive area of low clouds entrenched along the coast, with fog and low stratus filling the valleys west of the Cascades once again. Higher clouds are streaming overhead, and these are the first signs of a front what will attempt to pass onshore later today. Attempt is the correct word here, as the front will wash out and dissipate as it moves onshore, so some light showers or drizzle is possible along the immediate coast and perhaps on the western slopes of the coastal ranges, but otherwise precipitation will remain mostly offshore.

Ahead of this front, the low clouds and fog in the West Side valleys could become dense in places, especially around sunrise, and will be slow to erode/lift, which will keep afternoon temperatures in check again today. It's not out of the question that fog and low stratus in some valleys will persist all the way through the afternoon as well, and never clear before settling solidly in again tonight. However, the dying front my stir the atmosphere up enough to erode clouds out from some of the valleys that have not seen sunshine in several days.

A second front then arrives quickly on the heels of the dissipating one, arriving tonight into Monday with rain and gusty winds. This will be a warm system, and snow levels will be rather high, close to 10000 ft, so no winter impacts are expected. Some moderate rainfall amounts are forecast through the day Monday, mainly along the coast and west of the Cascades. Lighter amounts are expected to the east.

Another potent front with plenty of wind and precipitation arrives late Tuesday, and this one will be a much more impressive system. Model forecast surface pressure gradients have trended stronger in the latest runs, and with 700 mb winds of 60 to 70 kts, there is growing concern for strong winds, especially along the coast and across the East Side, where high wind headlines may be necessary, especially if the offshore surface low shows signs of rapidly deepening. There is also healthy moisture inflow, so moderate to heavy rainfall amounts are likely as well, although local drainages are lower than normal and there is very little snowpack to melt, so river or stream flooding chances are low.

The passing front will introduce colder air, lowering snow levels to below 4000 feet by Wednesday morning. These lower snow levels are not expected until after the front has passed, meaning that the main surge of precipitation will have passed, and post frontal showers will dominate. This will limit winter weather impacts, though 2 to 4 inches of snow are expected to fall on the Cascade passes throughout the day Wednesday.

The active weather will continue, with additional fronts passing through the area every other day or so all the way into early next week. Each system will have a chance to produce gusty winds and plenty of rain and mountain snow, but details on each system are uncertain given the wide ranges in the ensemble suites. That being said, the models are trending towards another strong system Thursday, which could be similar in terms of strength to the previous event. It should also be mentioned that while most solutions keep snow levels above the valley floors, there are a few ensemble members depicting low elevation snow early to middle next week, perhaps in time for Christmas? We will keep an eye on model trends and update as necessary. -BPN

AVIATION...14/12z TAFs

Areas of low stratus and fog are present in valleys west of the Cascades, resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions at Medford, Grants Pass, Roseburg, and Montague. Overnight, IFR/LIFR is also expected to develop in the Klamath Basin, including Klamath Falls. These conditions will persist through 18-20z Sunday. Some areas, such as Medford and Grants Pass may see little or no clearing, and just see ceilings lift higher late in the afternoon to IFR/MVFR and persist into the evening.

Along the coast and just offshore, marine stratus remains entrenched, producing IFR/LIFR from Gold Beach south today. These ceilings are expected to persist into late Sunday morning. Tonight, a front approaches the coast, which will lift ceilings a bit along the north coast and may produce some light drizzle. -BPN

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, December 14, 2025

Relatively calm conditions in low clouds this morning will deteriorate through today as a front approaches the region. Increasing south winds and steepening seas will produce conditions hazardous to small craft by this afternoon.

Worsening conditions are expected overnight into Monday as low pressure deepens over the north Pacific and a cold front swings through the waters. This front is expected to bring southerly gales to areas north of Cape Blanco and beyond 5 nm from shore late Sunday night through Monday afternoon with very steep and hazardous seas expected for all other areas. Winds ease Monday afternoon, but westerly swell builds (10-12 ft @ 12 seconds) behind the front which will maintain steep seas into mid-week. Additional frontal systems will maintain active weather through the week with gales possible again on Tuesday and Thursday, along with continued steep to, at times, very steep and hazardous seas. -BPN/BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-370.