textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

An upper level trough moves eastward out of the area today, but some incoming shortwave troughs will keep precipitation chances at 40-60% west of and along the Cascades into this afternoon. Snow levels look to remain in the 5000-6000 foot range, but forecast precipitation amounts are light. Higher terrain along and east of the Cascades might see an inch or two of snowfall. Any rainfall to the west looks to be measured in the hundreths of an inch at most. This scattered activity should dissipate by the evening hours.

A shortwave ridge will bring daytime temperatures up a few degrees on Tuesday afternoon before a cold front arrives Tuesday night, bringing precipitation into the day Wednesday. The highest rainfall amounts look to be along the coast, where 1 to 1.5 inches are possible through the day Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall along the coast could be on Wednesday morning, which may add some difficulty to morning commutes. Inland west side areas will also see light to moderate rainfall.

With the current forecast having snow levels at 4000-4500 feet during this wave of precipitation, the Cascades looks to see periods of moderate to heavy snowfall on Wednesday morning and afternoon. Snowfall rates of between half an inch to an inch are possible. A Winter Storm Watch is in place for parts of the Cascades north of Crater Lake and above 5000 feet to highlight possibly hazardous conditions in these areas on Wednesday into Thursday. Other mountain areas look to see a few inches of snowfall as well.

Gusty winds over elevated terrain and especially along and east of the Cascades are also expected as an upper trough follows the cold front. Winds along places like Winter Rim and along the Warner Mountains could have Advisory-level gusts on Wednesday morning and afternoon before speeds decrease into the evening.

Snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but lower elevation snowfall is not a concern as precipitation will decrease quickly into Wednesday evening. Frost and freeze conditions may return to west side valleys on both Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday.

A warm, dry period looks possible on Friday and Saturday as an upper ridge moves over the area. Another period of active weather is showing up in long-term deterministic imagery, as both ECMWF and GFS models have a low pressure system approaching the area on Sunday. There's noticeable differences in timing and behavior between the models, so stay tuned for additional details as this possible future activity becomes more clear. -TAD

AVIATION...13/12Z TAFs

Cloud cover across northern California and southern Oregon is bringing VFR and MVFR ceilings across the area. Showers are light and isolated on radar, and are expected to continue that way through the morning. Showers should be largely absent by the end of the TAF period, with a general mixture of VFR and MVFR continuing into early Tuesday morning. Some west side valleys may see lower ceilings or patchy fog. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Monday, April 13, 2026

Activity eases as a low pressure system moves to the east. Winds and short period northwest swell will support seas staying seas below advisory level through Tuesday morning. Steep seas are possible beginning Tuesday afternoon as a stronger front passes through the region. The front will bring increasing southwest winds as it moves across the waters Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be possible north of Coos Bay.

Unsettled seas may continue behind the Tuesday-Wednesday front. A thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds south of Cape Blanco later in the week, and another active system is in the forecast into the weekend. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for ORZ027.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.