textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds.

* Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-30 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday).

* Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side.

DISCUSSION...Skies are clear across the area today, except for a few residual marine layer clouds along the coast, and some developing cumulus fields beginning to pop up over the higher terrain of the Cascades and East Side.

Westerly flow will prevail today into Thursday under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. A stray shower (5% chance) can't be ruled out from the cumulus buildups today, but chances are very low. A dry front will pass through the region today. This will bring another day of enhanced afternoon breezes as well as a general cooling trend in afternoon temperatures today that will persist into the weekend. Instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. With this general cool down, we'll see an uptick in afternoon humidities, so despite the enhanced afternoon winds, fire weather concerns will be somewhat mitigated by the slightly cooler temperatures.

The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter gradients. This pattern will bring a round of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday and Saturday when gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 30 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday and Saturday, most widespread on Saturday. See the fire discussion below for more information.

Low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, and this will ease winds some compared to Saturday, but conditions will still be quite breezy. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough. Daytime humidities will trend slightly upward and the flow will turn more southerly heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. While this is still 5 to 7 days out and plenty of time for details to change between now and then, it currently looks like we'll skate by on Sunday without any convective activity. Monday through Wednesday, however, there could be enough moisture and instability in the region for thunderstorm activity. Given that the region is on the western periphery of that strong high pressure, it currently looks like the best chances would be across eastern areas, though it's worth noting that current guidance shows enough moisture across the West Side for thunderstorm development potentially on Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details.

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

VFR conditions are expected throughout the valid TAF period with the one caveat along/near the coast. There will be a deck of low clouds over KOTH; however, at this time these should remain FEW/SCT which would not lead to any categorical changes. Will need to watch conditions overnight in case the marine layer is thick enough to produce a BKN/OVC layer. Otherwise, expecting diurnal breezes today/tonight.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, July 8, 2026

The latest models have trended towards a stronger thermal trough than previously expected. Now, gusty winds and steep wind-driven seas are expected to spread to all of the southern Oregon waters by this evening, and very steep seas will develop south of Gold Beach. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but could strengthen again late weekend with gusty north winds and steep seas.

FIRE WEATHER (Updated at 100 PM Wednesday, July 8th)

This week will be noted by warm seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy afternoon wind speeds. This will ultimately result in elevated fire weather conditions starting tomorrow (Thurs). The areas of concern for tomorrow are both the Rogue and Illinois valleys, northern California, and eastside areas. This threat will further increase to near critical or critical fire weather conditions by Friday for eastside areas (Modoc, Klamath, and Lake counties). The threat of critical fire weather conditions will linger through the weekend. Saturday is currently the higher potential for critical fire weather conditions as well as the larger extent of areas with low RH and enhanced breezes, and these areas include eastside areas for both Oregon and northern California (Klamath, Lake, eastern Siskiyou, and Modoc counties). Saturday has lower RH values through the afternoon compared to Friday, but both days will be breezy with gusts around 30-35 mph (potentially 40mph in the windier places). Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lesser end of the spectrum. Regardless, Friday through Sunday will likely experience elevated to critical fire weather conditions with Red Flag Warnings likely developing through this stretch.

In the extended forecast, early to middle of next week, we are seeing a signal for thunderstorms with increasing confidence over the last 24 hours. Monsoonal moisture will increase through this stretch, so storms may be on the wetter side; however, lightning over dry fuels will be a concern given our continued stretch of warm and dry weather. At this time, Wednesday has the higher potential for abundant lightning, but we could see thunderstorm activity Monday through Wednesday. Models are trying to develop a tropical storm off the coast of Baja California this weekend which could increase the monsoonal moisture pattern into the forecast area early to middle of next week.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.