textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm seasonable temperatures and overall dry conditions are expected the next week.

* Smoke impacts from the East Evans Creek Fire could result in the afternoon and evening for the Rogue Valley and to some extend eastside areas. This of course depends on fire activity and is difficult to predict.

* Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening across mainly eastside areas: Eastern Siskiyou, Modoc, Klamath and Lake counties with Klamath County favored.

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

We continue to see high pressure to the east/southeast of the forecast area. We also have a closed 500mb low off the coast from Washington/Oregon which is placing southwesterly flow over the forecast area. Models are in pretty good agreement now with the closed low meandering over the waters until Friday before it heads over Vancouver Island/British Columbia through the start of the weekend. By Saturday night, a Rex Block appears to form over the Pacific with continued high pressure east of the forecast area. This pattern could last through early next week. Eventually the area of low pressure associated with the Rex Block could slide north up the coast of the PacNW early next week which could be our next round of precipitation after today.

For today, a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE is forecast this afternoon and early evening. Combined with the upper dynamics of the closed low off the coast and convective temperatures this afternoon, a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Expecting less activity than yesterday with focus around central to northern Klamath County. Main threats are lightning and gusty winds around 40 mph with any thunderstorms that happen to develop this afternoon and early evening.

Tomorrow will be the "coolest" day in the forecast with highs slightly below normal for this time of year. Friday through the weekend we will see a general warming trend with highs potential reaching triple digits this weekend for westside valleys.

Showers and thunderstorms will come into the forecast again early next week. Uncertainty exists due to the Rex Block and how the low eventually dislodges over the coast/PacNW into British Columbia. That said, it does appear this will result in our next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Details remain unclear at this time.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (12z TAFs)

IFR conditions likely to persist and impact KOTH through this cycle. Farther inland, expecting VFR conditions for the other terminals. Main concerns today will be the smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire that could bring smoke in the vicinity/near KMFR today. Additionally, expecting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening; however, not expecting these to impact the terminals outside of potential mid level clouds for KLMT. Otherwise, expecting typical diurnal breezes today/tonight.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 400 AM PDT Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Gusty northerly winds are building steep seas (overall borderline advisory) south of Cape Blanco through tonight. North winds are expected to increase again on Friday under a thermal trough pattern. These thermal trough winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours and will likely result in small craft conditions through the weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.