textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...16/00Z TAFs

Other than a stray shower near or just east of the Cascades, convective activity has been underwhelming this evening. Overall, expect VFR with just some high clouds overnight into Sunday for most inland areas.

Along the coast, VFR prevails currently, except in the immediate vicinity of Brookings where ceilings are MVFR. We do expect the marine layer to return north of Cape Blanco tonight, with a mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings at North Bend.

It is a bit less certain if stratus will form in the Umpqua Basin tonight. NBM shows about a 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings in Roseburg with statistical guidance largely keeping it out. We allowed for a few hours of MVFR ceilings centered around sunrise, but moisture is more limited tonight, so ceilings around the Basin could be patchier than the last few nights. Either way, things clear out Sunday afternoon for VFR in all areas.

Gusty north winds (~25kt) will develop along the coast in the afternoon. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 231 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Low chance of thunderstorms in the Cascades and northern Klamath and Lake counties this afternoon and evening.

* The potential for thunderstorms continues on Monday evening mainly east of the Cascades.

* Warm weather persist most of next week.

* Upper level energy could bring another round of thunderstorms Friday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite has a lot of weather features this afternoon with some coastal stratus moving into the Umpqua Valley. In addition, there is plenty of cumulus build ups over the higher terrain around the valleys and northern Klamath County. Finally, smoke from fires in northern California are spilling into Siskiyou County this afternoon.

As for the forecast, The high resolution ensemble forecast(HREF) system is showing convective activity in the higher Cascades around Crater Lake later this afternoon and evening. This is the area we have the highest confidence in thunderstorm activity. The national severe storms laboratory(NSSL) model is predicting some thunderstorm activity around Jackson County this afternoon. However, that model is usual to ambitious with thunderstorms, so we feel the probability of anything occuring is around 1-3 percent, so not impossible.

Otherwise, we'll likely see another marine surge into the Umpqua valley later tonight with models giving a 50% chance of it pushing back into the Umpqua Basin later tonight. Heading into Sunday and Monday, the upper level charts become fairly interesting. We should see a short wave move into Oregon with two upper level lows combining and moving around each other in the Pacific. In any case, all this upper level energy will give us a small chance of thunderstorms in northern Lake and Klamath Counties on Monday.

By Wednesday, the GFS has 500 mb heights building and temperatures will trend slightly warmer into the mid 90's for highs here in Medford. This is right around our normal high for mid August. This ridge remains in place through Thursday before the next upper level wave pushes through around Friday into Saturday next weekend. Once this wave moves through, the majority of ECMWF ensemble members are keeping us dry. However, we see about 4 out of 50 are excited about rain or convection over our section of Oregon. Therefore, there is some disagreement about about how much moisture and lift is around Friday. Odds are it will remain dry.

Overall, the upper level charts are fairly interesting through the forecast period, although on the ground impacts will likely remain low for the public and the region through next week.

-Smith

AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...

VFR conditions continue farther inland this morning and early afternoon with cumulus build ups along the higher Cascades. MVFR ceilings are continuing along the coast and are anticipated later tonight. Those MVFR ceilings could push into Roseburg(KRBG) overnight.

Aside from the cloud cover, there is a <5% chance of thunderstorms in the vicinity of MFR later this afternoon evening.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 330 PM PDT Saturday, August 15, 2026...Light north winds will persist tonight before trending later tonight into Monday. Conditions will become hazardous to small crafts with gusts to 30 knots 10 to 20 nm offshore south of Cape Blanco. Winds will ease a bit before increasing again Tuesday evening. -Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.