textproduct: Medford

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy winds continue to be the overall theme going forward

* Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday for areas around Crater Lake and north, but these chances may end up being north of our area

* Areas of smoke remain possible across western Siskiyou County and parts of Klamath and Lake counties due to nearby wildfires

DISCUSSION

The general pattern will be noted by high pressure over the Desert Southwest and a closed low off the coast around 140W and 34N. This will maintain south to southwesterly flow aloft through much of this forecast period. The big question will be how far east will the upper low move towards the PacNW on Thursday/Friday. This will likely play a large role on our thunderstorm chances. The signal is currently weak for thunderstorm chances, but we do have moisture and instability across the region, so the added dynamics aloft could help produce a thunderstorm or two Friday afternoon/early afternoon. That said, the overall pattern doesn't show any strong signal for thunderstorms any day, but Friday is currently the best chance. It will be a battle between the closed low and the high pressure over the Desert Southwest. If the closed low is allowed to push eastward farther we may see additional thunderstorm chances this weekend.

Otherwise, we will be monitoring fire weather conditions this week as there will be days with at least elevated fire weather concerns for wind and low RH. This will be mainly for eastside areas and northern California for the next several afternoons.

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

A marine layer along/near the coast will maintain IFR/LIFR conditions with improved conditions through the afternoon, but the marine layer is expected to reestablish again tonight bringing further IFR/LIFR conditions. Inland TAF sites are expected to remain in VFR through this cycle with typical diurnal breezes.

MARINE...Updated 330 PM PDT Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep seas, highest during the afternoons and evenings are expected south of Cape Blanco through Wednesday evening. Conditions are expected to improve late in the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

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