textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonal weather continues through the week, with a slight 5-degree warmup on Friday.

* East side areas may see early morning smoke accumulation, with afternoon breezes helping to clear that smoke out.

* Gusty winds possible over the coastal waters, the coast, and some inland areas this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Quiet, fairly typical summer weather continues for southern Oregon and far northern California. Southwest flow remains in control aloft, between persistent troughing over the northeastern Pacific and a very resilient and dominant ridge centered over the Four Corners region. This flow will keep the area dry for the foreseeable future, but there are a few minor details of interest through the week ahead.

Calm overnight conditions may allow for morning smoke accumulation in Lake and Klamath counties as well as parts of Modoc County. Daytime westerly breezes look to be enough to prevent constant accumulation, but this pattern does look to continue through at least Wednesday.

A few shortwaves are expected to traverse the steady southwest flow aloft, but most will pass just to our south. The strongest impulse will pass directly overhead Thursday, and despite the ridge blocking the preferred moisture transport vectors, there will be a slight increase in atmospheric moisture. A few ensemble members are resolving isolated thunderstorm development east of the Cascades as the impulse passes on Thursday afternoon, but these members represent only about 5% of the grand suite, so while possible, thunderstorm activity is very unlikely.

Daytime highs will remain near seasonal norms across the area, with a slight 5-degree warmup expected on Friday. Forecast temperatures have crept up a degree or two, with parts of the Rogue and Shasta valleys possibly hitting 100 degrees. With overnight lows staying cool and daytime highs decreasing over the weekend, there's no expectation of any heat headlines.

A broad upper level trough and associated dry cold front is expected to pass to the north of the area over the weekend. Atmospheric moisture remains too low for any precipitation, but the front will produce gusty winds as it passes, particularly over the East Side, in coastal areas, and over elevated terrain, but much will depend on the time of day the front passes, and therefore how much momentum can be mixed down to the surface. Depending on the wind's orientation, the eastern Rogue Valley (Shady Cove to Gold Hill to Ashland) as well as the Shasta Valley may see gusty winds as well.

AVIATION...28/12Z TAFs

VFR will prevail through the TAF period for most of the area. The exception will be the coast and coastal valleys, where marine stratus is resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions. These will likely persist well into the morning, then clear to VFR by midday. Wildfire smoke impacts will be limited to areas north of roughly Crater Lake/Chemult/Christmas Valley. Expect a similar pattern for the next several days with gusty winds developing in the afternoons, then easing after sunset. -BPN/BR-y

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Light winds early this morning will shift to the north and increase today. Relatively calm mixed seas will become increasingly dominated by wind seas. By tonight, winds will increase and seas become steep enough south of Cape Blanco to warrant a Small Craft Advisory that will then persist through late Wednesday night.

On Saturday, a low pressure system passing to the north may bring very strong northerly winds over area waters as it tightens the gradient and enhances the thermal trough. Although the timing and strength of these winds are uncertain, the latest models are showing a high likelihood of gales and very steep seas, and nearly a 30 percent chance of storm force gusts by early next week. -TAD/BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.