textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Very low chance of rain today and later tonight.

* High chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday east of the Cascades. Wetting rain seems likely east of the Cascades.

* 20 to 30% chance of thunderstorms around Modoc and Siskiyou County Wednesday afternoon.

* There is a chance of another system developing off the coast Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Radar is picking up on some echos this afternoon and a few surface stations have picked up on 0.01 inches of rain over the last 24 hours. So not everything on radar is evaporating before it hits the ground, although most of it is. We'll see this band of light precipitation disappear later tonight as the mature cyclone to our west remains well offshore in the Pacific.

Tuesday morning should be mostly cloudy with some lighter east winds over the higher terrain and most of the region. Temperatures should begin with a notable trend upwards during the day. We're currently forecasting a high of 75 in Medford, which is about 10 degrees warmer than what we'll observe this afternoon. By Tuesday evening, some models are bringing some light rain into Modoc And Siskiyou County. If it does rain, then it should be fairly light.

Heading into Wednesday, the models seem very confident with showers and thunderstorms developing over the California Sierras and moving into our sections of northern California and south Central Oregon by Wednesday evening. The latest high resolution ensemble forecast guidance(REFS) is showing a 40% chance of cloud to ground lightning around Modoc County, which frankly seems a little high. The forecast soundings from the GFS don't look all the impressive for thunderstorms, although there is some skinny convective available potential energy(CAPE) in a few forecast soundings.

We'll see the chance of showers persist into Thursday with as 50 to 70% chance of rain mainly east of the Cascades with those probabilities lowering the farther one moves west. In fact, the coast is expected to stay dry Wednesday and Thursday as all this moisture and stronger lift impacts regions to our east. The latest forecast has about 0.5 to 0.25 inches of liquid falling east of the Cascades Wednesday night through Thursday with 0.1 to 0.25 inches along the Cascades and perhaps a few hundreths around the Rogue Valley.

The last topic worth noting is the chance of another system strengthening off our coast and bringing more wetting rain to the region. Right now, the chance of rain is about 50%. There are a fair amount of ensemble members keeping things dry or just keeping the precipitation well to our north. It will remain something to watch if ensembles converge on a drier or wetter solution.

-Smith

AVIATION...20/00Z TAFs

Mid- and high-levle clouds remain over northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. Radar indicates that showers may be present over western Siskiyou county and along the Cascades in eastern Douglas and northern Klamath counties at the start of the TAF period. Impactful activity is not expected. Overall, VFR levels look to persist into Tuesday afternoon. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, October 19, 2026

Winds gradually turn northerly tonight. Meantime, west-northwest swell dominated seas will gradually increase, bringing steep seas for all areas. Conditions improve for the inner waters by Tuesday afternoon, but steep seas linger for the outer waters south of the Cape Arago into Tuesday night. Thereafter, overall improved conditions are expected for Wednesday with sub-advisory north winds and light swell dominated seas. A thermal trough is expected Thursday into Friday, with north winds increasing slightly on Thursday, and more noticeably on Friday. This may result in steep seas.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.