textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...03/06Z TAFs

Conditions are mainly VFR, but patchy coastal IFR visibilities will persist for the remainder of this evening. Also, showers will diminish over Douglas, northern Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties.

A wind reversal to southerly is expected along the coast overnight into Sunday morning, with low ceilings and/or fog spreading north along the coastline and into the coastal valleys, including at North Bend, through the late morning, around 18Z.

Patchy MVFR will then linger at the coast during Sunday afternoon into the evening, while a more active afternoon and evening of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms develops across the area.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Saturday, May 2, 2026.

North winds are weakening, but fresh swell dominated seas will remain steep into early Sunday morning. The fresh north swell will slowly diminish later Sunday into Monday, while a longer period northwest swell builds and becomes dominant. Relatively quiet conditions are expected for much of the next week.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1100 AM PDT Saturday May 2, 2026

A short period northwest swell and a building long period northwest swell will combine their energy and may produce very large waves washing up on area beaches late tonight through Sunday morning. The risk will be highest around sunrise on Sunday morning.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Never turn away from the ocean!

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 218 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026/

DISCUSSION...A developing cutoff low remains the guiding influence for weather across northern California and southern Oregon this weekend. For today, southerly flow aloft and unstable atmospheric conditions will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast for today. As of this Discussion, a pair of thunderstorms have already developed over northern Lake County. Model guidance shows the highest CAPE values (900-1200 J/Kg) over Josephine County and along the Cascades, as well as some 400-600 J/Kg values over Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties. SPC CAMs are focusing expectations on these areas, with chances of isolated to scattered development across Lake and Klamath counties as well. Any thunderstorms that develop are likely to be pulse/cellular, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Activity decreases quickly into tonight.

The cutoff low will move eastwards over California through Sunday and Monday. This will bring more rain showers as well as embedded thunderstorms. With the track of the cutoff remaining farther south, Siskiyou and Modoc counties will see chances for rainfall (50-70%) and thunderstorms (20-30%) on both Sunday and Monday. Looking into Oregon, chances for rainfall (40-60%) and thunderstorms (20-25%) on Sunday afternoon and evening will be focused west of the Cascades, although some east side areas may see light rainfall. On Monday, activity looks to be mostly limited to southern Lake and Klamath counties with stray activity farther north. These chances can fluctuate depending on the actual path of the low, as cutoffs can be finicky with how they travel.

A few showers may linger into Tuesday morning in eastern Modoc and southeastern Lake counties as the cutoff's influence dwindles. An upper ridge settles in place, setting up a warm and dry period for the week ahead. Inland valleys and basins on either side of the Cascades are forecast to be in the high 70s to mid 80s on Wednesday and Thursday while the Oregon coast stays in the mid 60s. A front passing to the north could flatten the ridge and bring slight relief on Friday and possibly into the weekend. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.