textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

The two main updates this morning were to extend a Dense Fog Advisory into Douglas County valleys /PDXNPWMFR/, and raise the high temperatures forecast for Brookings today and Thursday. A Chetco Effect of downslope warming is expected on both days. The mid 60s are possible today, but warming will be strongest tomorrow with a reading of 70 likely to be reached.

Otherwise, persistence remains the appropriate description for the short and medium term portion of the forecast. The Freezing Fog Advisory remains in effect this morning for interior west side valleys. Also, an Air Stagnation Advisory for lower elevations of southern Oregon, east of the Coast Range, through Friday morning. There is growing confidence/model agreement that the stagnant air will persist into early next week, at least through Monday and possibly into Tuesday morning. But, we will hold off on any adjustments for now, allowing the day shift to see at least one more new suite of data, and the opportunity to collaborate.

For the latter portion of the forecast, the latest run of the NBM is in line in adjusting the probability of precipitation lower on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Late Tuesday night, with a deepening marine layer as a weak cold front potentially approaches Washington and northern Oregon, looks to be the earliest that measureable rain could develop at the southern Oregon coast.

The probability of a stronger, though not necessarily strong, cold frontal passage increases between next Wednesday and Thursday. There is good agreement between the 00Z ECMWF and GEFS ensembles that measureable precipitation becomes likely, at least for the coast to the Cascades by Thursday/Day 9 of the forecast.

AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs

North winds have brought IFR and LIFR to the coast from Cape Blanco northward. This is expected to persist through mid-morning, around 18Z, then clear to VFR. Meantime, northeast winds have kept the south coast clear. A shift to northeast winds along all of the coast is expected to continue VFR into Thursday morning.

Elsewhere, the daily pattern of conditions will continue. This includes clear skies for the higher terrain and east side. But, night through morning or early afternoon west side valley LIFR/IFR low clouds and fog/freezing fog. These lower conditions will again linger longest in the Rogue/Illinois Valleys, and return late this evening into Thursday morning.

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Seas briefly remain swell dominated early this morning. With a summer-like thermal trough pattern, north winds will strengthen, and a long period west swell will build today into this evening. This will create steep seas across the waters this morning, becoming very steep south of Cape Blanco (especially in the outer waters) this afternoon through Thursday evening. Seas are expected to peak at around 8 to 13 ft at 15 seconds.

The thermal trough will linger through the latter half of the week. North to northeast winds diminish and swell gradually subsides Thursday night, but wind waves and lingering fresh swell may continue steep seas into early Friday. Conditions will continue to improve Friday into the weekend, with only a slight increase in the height of light swell early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ024-026.

Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for ORZ023-024- 026-029>031.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ023.

CA...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ356-376.