textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Light to moderate rain is likely Thursday evening through Friday for most areas from the Cascades westward. Additionally, there is a low chance (10%) of thunderstorms.

* On Friday, there is a 10-30% chance for light showers Friday across portions of Klamath and Lake County.

* Gusty winds are expected at the coast late Thursday into Friday morning and inland for areas east the of Cascades Thursday and Friday.

* The combination of gusty winds and low humidities on Thursday will result in elevated fire weather conditions, especially for Lake and Modoc counties.

* Areas of freezing temperatures expected Saturday morning in valleys east of the Cascades.

DISCUSSION

Dry and warm conditions today with transition to cooler, wetter and windier Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system moves in from the west. This will bring a front into the coast Thursday night/early Friday and inland on Friday. Winds ahead of this front will be gusty. Ensembles are starting to show better agreement on the pattern with the low tracking towards the central Oregon coast late Thursday then moving onshore near the northern Oregon coast early Friday morning. However, there is variability with some ensembles showing a more southernly or northerly track. So we have medium confidence on the expected winds with this low and will continue to monitor with future model runs.

Current models show a lower and mid level jet of 35 to 50 mph moving over the area ahead of and with this front. This will result in gusty south to southwest winds over the area, strongest along the coast Thursday evening through Friday morning and inland east of the Cascades late Thursday afternoon/evening and again on Friday. Additionally, areas east of the Cascades will remain dry with low humidities Thursday afternoon and evening. This combined with gusty winds (gusts 30-40 mph) will bring elevated fire weather conditions, mainly to Modoc and Lake counties. A red flag warning is in effect for these conditions in Modoc County, where the most critical conditions are expected. Along the coast, winds are forecast to increase on Thursday evening and peak Thursday night and Friday morning at around 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-45 mph. As the low pressure moves onshore there is a potential for strong, gusty west-southwest winds along a portion of the Oregon coast, but this is more favored just north of the CWA.

As the front associated with this low moves inland, expect a band of moderate rainfall (0.25 to 0.75 inches) to move onshore into coastal areas late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening then light to moderate rain (with amounts of 0.02 to 0.40 inches) will move inland across the west side and the southern Oregon Cascades Thursday night and Friday morning. Rain is likely for most inland areas from the Southern Oregon Cascades west and for western Siskiyou County. This band will shift eastward and diminish with chances (10-30%) for light rain east of the Cascades in Klamath and Lake counties Friday morning. Behind the front, showers will fill into the area from the Cascades west on Friday, with best chances for showers in Coos, Curry and Douglas counties and over the southern Oregon Cascades.

In addition to rainfall, there is a low (10%) chance for thunderstorms along the coast Thursday evening and night and inland (Cascades west) on Friday.

Much cooler temperatures are expected across the area on Friday with highs in the 60s for many inland valleys. Gusty winds will persist Friday afternoon east of the Cascades but humidities will trend higher.

Showers diminish Friday evening and night. With light winds and clearing skies, areas of frost and freeze are likely in east side valleys Saturday morning. West of the Cascades, low temperatures are forecast to remain in the upper 30s to 40s on Saturday with very low chances for frost. High temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees below normal Saturday, warming to near normal on Sunday.

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

Areas of MVFR in the Umpqua Valley this morning will clear around 19- 20z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions over the area today. Along the coast, areas of IFR/LIFR will develop this evening and overnight in the Coquille and along the coast north of Cape Blanco. Guidance supports IFR at North Bend (OTH) developing between 04-09z. Have added IFR to the TAF for North Bend. Confidence is medium on timing.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Gusty northerly winds and steep seas continue south of Port Orford through early Thursday morning. While a brief period of below advisory seas follows, an approaching low pressure system will bring active conditions. Marine showers and increasing southerly winds arrive late in the morning. By Thursday evening, gale gusts are possible north of Cape Blanco, with a mix of steep and very steep and hazardous seas to the south. There's some lingering uncertainty in model guidance in the exact path of the low pressure system and the strength of the winds, so a Gale Watch for northern waters and a Hazardous Seas Watch for southern waters are in place to communicate the potential hazards while additional information is gathered. A combination hazards is expected for Thursday evening and through much of the day Friday. For now, the highest confidence for gale gust chances is north of Coos Bay and the highest confidence for very steep seas is north of Gold Beach.

Winds and seas ease late Friday. Areas of steep seas increase into Saturday, but seas may not completely settle before a thermal trough develops and brings broader areas of steep seas on Saturday. This pattern looks short-lived currently, with winds and seas improving on Sunday. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for PZZ350-370.