textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...27/00Z TAFS

VFR conditions with terrain obscurations prevail across the region under widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Shower activity will diminish some after sunset, but never really end. Expect lingering cloud cover overnight, with ceilings lowering to MVFR for valleys west of the Cascades. Meanwhile, guidance brings a band of precipitation from northeast to southwest across the East Side before sunrise Wednesday morning, which will likely result in MVFR ceilings as well. Conditions improve to VFR late Wednesday morning, but expect another round of showers and gusty winds with higher chances for thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon/evening, especially east of the Cascades, but also possibly into the Rogue Valley as well. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 115 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...

Key Points:

* Minor/low impacts over the next several days

* Unsettled and cooler weather next several days - Below/near normal temperatures common through this weekend - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms next few days - Not expecting widespread severe weather at this time - Main threats are lightning and strong gusts (40-55 mph)

Further Details:

The upper levels will be noted by a closed 500mb low that sort of meanders over the Reno/Lake Tahoe area cut off from the mean flow the next several days. By Friday night, this low does finally get absorbed into the main flow and exits the region. Afterwards, we go into a pseudo-zonal flow pattern aloft with consensus of a 500mb low setting up over the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday. This trough may be the next potential weather maker early to middle of next week, but current signals point to more activity north of our forecast area.

The position of the aforementioned 500mb low over the next few days will allow for small pieces of PVA to rotate around and pass over the forecast area. This will aid in our east to west convection pattern over the coming days, especially as convective temperatures are reach during peak heating. While the threat of thunderstorms exists today, these will be very isolated in nature, but both Wednesday and Thursday could see more scattered activity. Its not too common to see east to west convection for the Medford forecast area, but the position of the low will allow for this chance. It will be interesting to see how much convection starts east of the Cascades and how much makes it over the Cascades/forms west of the Cascades. Given the instability and energy aloft, this is certainly a good possibility and this could resemble what happened on May 3rd for westside areas. DCAPE and storm motion would suggest that strong erratic gusts of 45 to 55 mph is certainly possible. On Wednesday in particular, forecast soundings/hodographs are suggesting storm motion could be as fast as 35-45mph, so it would not take much downward momentum from evaporative cooling processes to get gusts over 45 mph. In fact, isolated gusts of 60-65mph is certainly possible with these storm motions and dry air near the surface. While storm motion is overall slower on Thursday, there will still be a threat of strong wind gusts from thunderstorms given DCAPE values.

It should be noted that we are not forecasting non-stop rain the next several days. There will be plenty of breaks with much of the activity around peak heating in the afternoon and early evening. Peak heating from 2pm-8pm will see the greatest overall threat for lightning and strong wind gusts.

Temperatures remain on the cooler side through this weekend. Thursday and Sunday will see temperatures closer to normal, but overall our afternoons will be below normal. By next week (depending on the Gulf of Alaska low) we could see temperatures back above normal. Ensembles are suggesting the low wont impact us too much with high pressure more likely for our area given cluster analysis.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Tuesday, May 26, 2026...Steep northwest swell-dominated seas will continue today. While seas will gradually subside tonight into Wednesday morning, they are expected to remain steep and hazardous.

After brief, slight improvement, high pressure offshore and lingering low pressure inland will again bring increasing north winds on Wednesday afternoon with the strongest winds likely to occur south of Gold Beach. The gusty north winds and a long period west-northwest swell will produce very steep seas Wednesday night through Thursday night. Conditions may briefly improve on Friday.

BEACH HAZARDS...Long period northwest swell, originating from recent storms near the Kamchatka and western Aleutian Islands, will build into the southern oregon coastal waters beginning Wednesday evening. Initially arriving as 2 to 3 feet at around 20 seconds, swell will peak at 6 to 8 feet at around 17 seconds during the day Thursday. The threat will be highest during periods of incoming tides, which will be during the morning, and during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Avoid climbing on rocks and jetties. Stay away from the ocean and remain out of the water to avoid hazardous conditions. Never turn your back on the ocean!

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.