textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

Low clouds impacting both KOTH and KRBG are expected to dissipate this afternoon which will lead to VFR conditions for all terminals through the rest of this TAF cycle. High clouds will be present across the region along typical diurnal wind speeds.

.Updated Aviation Discussion

KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy winds and cooler this afternoon as a dry front moves across the area.

* Mild temperatures continue on Sunday.

* Low chances for rain early next week with the coast having the highest probability for light, measurable amounts.

* Below normal temperatures for much of next week.

DISCUSSION...A weak front is moving onshore this morning. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area, breezy afternoon winds and a low chance for light rain for Coos and northwest Douglas counties. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s to mid 80s for most inland valleys today. Although cooler than yesterday, this will still be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Humidities will trend higher for areas from the Southern Oregon Cascades west. Compared to yesterday, humidities will be slightly higher, but still dry, for areas east of the Cascades and across Northern California. Breezy and dry conditions in Modoc and Lake counties are expected today, with elevated fire weather conditions.

Mild and dry weather is expected on Sunday behind the front. Areas of morning low clouds are forecast west of the Southern Oregon Cascades, including in the Umpqua, Rogue, Illinois and Applegate valleys.

A stronger low pressure system moves shifts southward off the coast Sunday night and Monday. This low will remain offshore and then move south of the area on Tuesday, before gradually moving inland Wednesday over southern California as a cut off low, then gradually tracking northeastward late Thursday. The track of this low offshore is not favorable for rainfall for much of the forecast area. The coast will see the best chances for light rainfall accumulation Mon/Mon night before the low shifts south. Then, as the low moves southward and inland we could see wrap around moisture and rainfall develop over northern California and some eastside around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Additionally, a weak trough moves inland to the north of the area next Thursday which will bring some low chances of rain to northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coast and Umpqua Basin).

Regarding rainfall amounts, models and ensembles have trended drier for Monday and Monday night as the low nears the coast. So, while coastal areas have higher chances for rain (25-30%) versus inland (5-20%), coverage may be limited and rainfall amounts low (trace to less than a tenth of an inch). Then, mid to late next week, rainfall chances shift to mainly across southeast portions of the area, especially Modoc and Lake counties. There is still uncertainty in how much moisture will wrap around this system and move into the area next week though. Overall, rainfall amounts are forecast to be light (0.10 inches or less) with higher amounts to the southeast of the area. However, given uncertainty in the track, we will continue to monitor this period.

AVIATION...17/12Z TAFs...LIFR and IFR conditions in marine stratus/fog persist along the coast this morning. Conditions are likely to gradually lift to IFR and MVFR after 18z.

Some MVFR ceilings are likely to push into the Umpqua Basin around 15z this morning, and could linger into early this afternoon as this weak front moves through the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the area.

Late Saturday night and early Sunday morning expect areas of IFR and LIFR to develop in fog and low clouds for valleys west of the Southern Oregon Cascades and along the coast.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Saturday, October 17, 2026...Sub- advisory winds and seas will persist through late this morning. North winds increase and west-northwest swell arrives around this afternoon into Saturday night, building seas higher. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft this afternoon. Then, seas build with expect a mix of small craft advisory level conditions and hazardous seas late this afternoon into Sunday. Seas are expected to briefly lower Sunday night. Then, Monday evening and night, west swell builds into the area which will likely lead to steep seas around 10 to 13 feet for much of the waters.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.