textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

There are some cumulus buildups along the Oregon Cascades and other higher terrain locations this afternoon as a short wave moves through the forecast area. Otherwise, clear skies over valley locations as temperatures warm through the 70's. With clear skies tonight, low temps will drop fairly quickly into the mid 40's west of the Cascades and lower to mid 30's east of the Cascades.

We'll begin our warm up on Monday as some light easterly flow off the Cascade crest pushes temperatures well into 80's west of the Cascades with some mid to upper 70's along the Oregon coast near Brookings. One could analyze a thermal trough west of the Cascades with a ridge in the 1000-500 mb thickness values and easterly flow persisting off the Cascades around 2000 to 3000 feet above sea level. This will keep things warm into Tuesday and the extreme forecast index is forecasting values around 0.7 to 0.8, so not extreme or record breaking, yet warmer than normal temperatures for early June.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a deeper negative tilted trough will approach the Oregon coastline. Odds are there will be some showers or perhaps thunderstorms east of the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble members are producing some lighter precipitation west of the Cascades in the QPF. In any case, be prepared for some lighter drizzle of brief showers west of the Cascades Wednesday morning and afternoon even through the NBM is forecasting a PoP near 0. The latest NBM has had an observed dry bias, so the PoP forecast is probably too low.

We return to a more zonal flow pattern after the trough passes through Oregon and temperatures remain near seasonal normals for early June. No weather impacts anticipated Thursday into Friday with normal temperatures and seasonal valley breezes.

Another deep trough and surface low will arrive in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Models are focusing the heavier QPF to our north. However, there are few members(~10-15%) that bring some heavier wetting rains here to southern Oregon. Right now the NBM PoP forecast has a 30-40 percent chance of rain along the Cascades with about 20 percent along the coast, which seems a little strange as it should be higher. In any case, it will definitely trend cooler by the weekend with highs in the lower 70's.

-Smith

AVIATION...01/00z TAFs

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with typical afternoon breezes. North winds will be strongest today along the coast, peaking around 25-30 kt through early this evening. Isolated areas of LIFR are possible in the Coquille Valley and southern Umpqua Basin.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Sunday, May 31, 2026

A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through Monday. Conditions worsen today as north winds increase to gales south of Gold Beach with very steep seas expected from Bandon southward. Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected for all other areas. Winds ease some tonight and even moreso on Monday, but steep to very steep seas are expected through Monday. Conditions improve for all areas by Tuesday as the thermal trough pushes inland and north winds weaken below advisory levels. Below advisory conditions likely persist through the remainder of the week with a low west-northwest persistent swell. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370.

Gale Warning until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376.