textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* A high risk of sneaker waves through this evening at beaches.

* Cool, seasonable temperatures through mid-week. Light precipitation, mainly in northern California, on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

* A weak, weakening cold front will push into the coast early Wednesday evening with light rain likely. Also, a slight chance to chance of rain for southwest Oregon and northern Klamath County during Wednesday night with snow levels around 6000 to 7000 feet.

* A warming trend Thursday through Saturday. The southern end of another weak system brushes past Coos, Douglas, and northern Klamath counties on Friday with a slight chance to chance of light rain.

* As early as Saturday night, but more likely on Sunday, another similarly weak, northward focused system will bring slight cooling, and may bring light rain to western Oregon.

* Higher uncertainty beyond Sunday, but a break is likely during the day on Monday...ahead of a continued active but potentially more impactful pattern next week.

DISCUSSION

For a seasonably active pattern, weather impacts during the next week will remain relatively minor. Our area will more accurately be brushed rather than hit with a series of disturbances.

High clouds will remain thick through Tuesday morning. Similar to this morning, low clouds and fog are expected in the Umpqua Valley from late evening into Tuesday morning, with patchy coverage forming around sunrise in the Rogue Valley. A trough that is now far offshore of northern California will track east into the state during Tuesday then continue into Nevada on Tuesday night. The highest probability is for light rain of less than a tenth of an inch in Siskiyou and Modoc counties during the afternoon and evening. The more substantial rainfall will occur to the south, from Eureka to the northern San Francisco Bay Area.

Compared to Tuesday morning, brief ridging late Tuesday night into Wednesday has a slightly higher probability, longer expected duration of west side valley low clouds and fog.

In a flip from the previous event, precipitation with the next frontal system late Wednesday through Wednesday night till around sunrise on Thursday will be focused north of our area. The weakening cold front is expected to have sufficient strength to deliver around a tenth of an inch to the coast and lighter amounts inland...mainly for Douglas County.

Warming temperatures and variable amounts of high clouds are expected Thursday into Thursday night. Another front on Friday is expected to be similar, slightly weaker than the late Wednesday system, with the focus for precipitation north of our area.

Ridging on Saturday will bring another break between systems. A third northern focused system is likely as early as Saturday night. There is a higher uncertainty regarding the strength of this system, with the operational ECMWF decidedly on the strong end of the spectrum of solutions. A majority of ensemble solutions indicate it will be similar to its two predecessors, with a measureable amount of rain at least at the southern Oregon coast.

A majority of solutions also indicate a break between systems on Monday. The length of that break is highly uncertain with an expectation for low pressure in the northern Pacific to finally bring at least one substantial precipitation producer to our area during that 8 to 14 day timeframe/next week.

AVIATION....03/06Z

High clouds will remain in place tonight with mainly VFR conditions across the area. The exception will be areas of fog and low clouds expected to develop in the Umpqua Basin around 11Z and persisting to around 18Z. Additionally, as high clouds thin briefly in the late night and early Tuesday morning, there is also a low chance (15%) for local IFR/LIFR in fog to develop in Rogue Valley, including the vicinities of Grants Pass and Medford, around sunrise (14Z through 17Z).

During the day Tuesday, a low will move into Northern California, with showers likely for Siskiyou and Modoc counties in the afternoon and evening. Expect mainly VFR, except for local MVFR in heavier showers and areas of higher terrain obscurations.

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Monday, November 2, 2026

Long period west-northwest swell will maintain elevated steep seas in the outer waters through tonight. Meanwhile, a shorter period southwest swell builds into the waters tonight into Tuesday with seas also becoming high and steep in the inner waters Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Conditions briefly improve on Wednesday. An active pattern resumes Wednesday night with building seas, including another long period west-northwest swell.

Seas may become high and steep again on Thursday with the long period swell dominated seas forecast to reach a peak on Friday night at around 13 to 17 feet at 15 to 17 seconds. An active weather pattern will likely continue during the weekend into next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.