textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Cool temperatures and very slight chances for showers (limited to Coos and Douglas counties) continue through the rest of the week.

* The next system arrives Saturday, with widespread precipitation chances Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Precipitation amounts will be light, with light snow accumulations possible down to around 4500 ft. * Cry conditions return under high pressure Sunday, with a warming trend through the first half of the week. Model guidance diverges beyond next Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

A broad upper-level closed low currently sits just offshore of Vancouver Island, with west to southwest flow over southern Oregon and far northern California. The low will gradually drift south and meander just offshore of the Pacific Northwest through Saturday morning, keeping cool temperatures and periods of cloudy skies in the forecast through the rest of the week and some portion of the weekend. This system keeps enough distance from the area to limit slight shower chances (5-15%) to the coastal counties through the rest of the week.

The low will stretch and elongate north to south Saturday, then push onshore along nearly the entire West Coast by Saturday night. This will produce widespread rain showers Saturday afternoon and evening as the low passes overhead, but rainfall amounts will be light as the bulk of the moisture inflow remains well to our south. Area Halloween festivities may very well see a spooky, mostly cloudy night with sporadic light showers, so be prepared.

Snow levels should hover between 4500 and 5500 ft throughout this period of showers, so very light snow accumulations are possible over the mountains and across much of the East Side.

The trough pushes east Sunday morning, with showers tapering off before noon, then ridging builds quickly in overhead for the first half of the week. Expect dry conditions Sunday through roughly Wednesday, with a gradual warming trend that peaks around Wednesday at near to slightly above seasonal normals.

Beyond Wednesday, there's some divergence in model behavior, but most suites point to a continued progressive pattern with the arrival of an upper-level trough and associated surface frontal system sometime during the second half of the week, and continued active weather for several days after that.

AVIATION...29/12Z TAFs

IFR ceilings are likely around the Umpqua valley and closer to the coast this morning. Fog is also possible given the current dew point depressions in some of the valleys west of the Cascades. These lower ceilings should burn off by the late morning hours with VFR ceilings most likely by Thursday afternoon and evening.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, October 29, 2026

Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue through the week. Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength. A series of seasonably weak disturbances will produce the strongest northwest winds in the Washington and northern Oregon offshore waters, which will push fresh north-northwest swell into the southern Oregon waters. This swell, combined with a lower west-northwest swell, will persist through the week, gradually lowering Thursday into Friday. The outlook is for a long period west-northwest swell to build from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to over 10 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, October 29, 2026

Mid- range guidance is showing a long period WNW swell building in over the weekend and persisting into early next week. Early projections show the swell arriving Sunday afternoon at 2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will then have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to over 10 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon, so the sneaker wave risk continues then. Periods drop below 15 seconds Monday night, and the risk well lessen.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.