textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon, tapering off from west to east during the late afternoon and early evening, lingering longest in Lake County.

* Cooler than normal temperatures continue. Where it clears out tonight east of the Cascades, a Freeze Warning is in place into Monday morning. Frost/freezing temperatures are possible again on Tuesday morning.

* A strong warming and drying trend is expected this week with high temperatures getting back to normal levels Mon/Tue, and then above normal with mid 80s to mid 90s by Wed/Thu.

* Upper trough digging into PacNW late week, but moisture from the south gets pinched off and the most likely result is a dry front crossing the area Fri/Fri night. Expect some enhanced W-SW breezes in advance of this system Thu/Fri, with at least a brief cool down Sat. But, precipitation chances look pretty low (5-20% range) and mainly NW sections (Cascades N&W).

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery is showing low pressure swirling over the PacNW early this afternoon. Colder air aloft is generating instability along with some showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms. We can see that much of the west side is now on the back side of the low/trough as activity is moving from NW to SE. The axis of the trough is pushing east of the Cascades, and by this evening, activity will diminish from west to east (probably by 8 pm near the Cascades and as late as 11 pm over the East Side).

Drier air will move in pretty quickly behind this system tonight and clouds should break in most areas. Since the air mass is pretty cold, areas that clear fastest and remain that way the longest east of the Cascades will have temperatures drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s. This has resulted in a Freeze Warning /PDXNPWMFR/ tonight into Monday morning.

High pressure builds in Monday, but then especially Tuesday through Thursday resulting a period of strong, warming and drying. Modest offshore flow (N-NE winds) will occur Monday night into Tuesday morning due to a strengthening thermal trough. This will lead to some poor overnight RH recoveries for upper slopes/ridges of western Siskiyou County and also the coast ranges through at least midweek. A stronger subsidence inversion should also lead to one more night (Monday) of valley cold east of the Cascades with frost and/or freezing conditions. The lower dew points bring potential for it to be just as cold as tonight. But, the coldest portion of the air mass aloft will have shifted east of our area by then. So, the extent of cooling Tuesday will depend on the characteristics of morning valley inversions. This probably can handled by a frost advisory. After the chilly start over there, temperatures rebound closer to normal everywhere by Tuesday afternoon, then above normal for both Wednesday and Thursday. It will be warmest for the valleys west of the Cascades with highs in the 90s both days.

The next upper trough approaches the PacNW Friday, then moves through Friday night into Saturday. Model solutions are showing a mostly dry frontal passage, since moisture from the south gets pinched off and is unable to make it this far north. It's conceivable the front could squeeze out a shower or two. But, probabilities for rain are pretty low (5-20%). Best chances are from Cascades N&W. The trough should allow for a modest increase in W-SW breezes in advance of it (beginning Thu pm, but peaking Fri pm/eve). It should also bring with it a brief cool down with temperatures around 10-15F below normal for highs on Saturday. -Spilde

AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs

Showers and thunderstorms will be the main aviation hazards through the afternoon and evening hours. Models have 50-60% chance of thunderstorms near Klamath Falls(LMT) with a lower 20% chance near Medford(MFR). Visibility will drop to IFR thresholds under these showers and thunderstorms. Those thunderstorm probabilities will diminish by the evening hours.

Low IFR and LIFR stratus near the coast will likely move into North Bend (OTH) later tonight. Those lower ceilings will clear up by mid morning on Monday.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, September 6, 2026

Mixed south and fresh northwest swells will produce low seas today. A thermal trough develops early Monday, bringing gusty north winds and steep wind seas south of Port Orford. Steep seas extend to Cape Arago Monday night, and across the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night. Winds briefly diminish Wednesday, but steep seas may linger. Seas hazardous to smaller crafts are likely by Friday and Saturday as another low and cold front move through the waters.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for ORZ029>031.

CA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.