textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry conditions and elevated wind speeds continue to support fire weather concerns, with a Red Flag Warning in place for Modoc, southeast Klamath, and southwest Lake counties.

* Southerly flow and atmospheric instability support chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

* Warm and dry conditions are possible in the middle and end of next week, with little indication of hazardous conditions.

DISCUSSION

An upper trough around a low pressure system descending the Canadian coast is bringing southwest flow aloft. This is keeping temperatures near or just above seasonal levels across the area. The air moving along this pattern is fairly dry, minimizing the chances for any precipitation activity through the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient between that trough and a ridge developing over the Four Corners area is expected. For most west side areas, this will generally mean some stronger afternoon breezes. For areas east of the Cascades, these winds developing during a period of critically low daytime humidities are presenting hazardous fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in place for parts of Modoc, southeast Klamath, and southwest Lake counties through Sunday evening to address these concerns. Areas outside of the Warning area are still expecting dry conditions and elevated winds, so caution of potential fire- starting activities is encouraged. Please see the FIRE WEATHER discussion below and RFWMFR for more details about the concerns present through this weekend.

On Sunday and into Monday, the southwest high shifts northeast and the trough over the Pacific deepens, bringing more southerly flow aloft between the two features. This pattern looks to bring monsoonal moisture to the area early next week, which can help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Indeed, deterministic imagery is showing slight chances (10-20%) for thunder east of the Cascades on Monday and Tuesday, with similar chances over western Siskiyou/southern Jackson counties on Tuesday as well. There's little sign of any especially aggressive activity. Instability triggering these storms looks to be scattered vorticity aloft than anything more organized like a shortwave or front. CAPE values at this point are not excessively high, with modeled values in the 100-250 J/Kg range. And if this atmospheric moisture supports cloud development, that can limit daytime heating which limits convective factors. That said, thunderstorm forecasting is fickle and any changes to the upper pattern can significantly change the forecast. High-resolution data available over the weekend will provide a more accurate picture of what to expect early next week.

There's some disagreement with exactly how the upper pattern shifts for midweek and beyond, but the overall outcome in long-term tools shows no signals for hazardous conditions. While the high pressure system seems to be the overall dominant feature, its position farther east keeps the highest temperatures away from the area. Daytime highs may be 5 degrees or so above normal to end next week. Southwest flow aloft looks to support continuing dry conditions, but a relaxed pressure gradient points to lower wind speeds across the area. -TAD

AVIATION...11/00Z TAFs

A mix of LIFR/IFR is present along the coast from near Cape Blanco northward. LIFR/IFR will expand and include most all the coast this evening through Saturday morning, gradually lifting to MVFR in the mid to late morning on Saturday and clearing around 18-21z. Areas of MVFR ceilings will spread into the Umpqua overnight and Saturday morning, clearing around 18z.

All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period. However, Medford (KMFR) may see reduced visibilities with areas of smoke spreading into the area from a recent fire 15-20 miles northwest of the the airport. Otherwise, gusty afternoon and evening winds are expected area wide this evening and again Saturday afternoon, strongest east of the Cascades (gusts 20-30 mph).

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Friday, July 10, 2026

Steep seas continue south of Cape Blanco this afternoon while below advisory seas continue to the north. Seas to the south reach below advisory conditions late tonight. On Saturday evening, developing northerly gusty winds build steep seas south of Cape Blanco and spread to the north on Sunday afternoon. These conditions continue into Monday, when winds begin to ease. Below advisory seas may be present in area waters by Monday evening or Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 130 PM Friday, July 10, 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue through the weekend, with a Red Flag Warning in place for portions of the East Side and the Modoc Plateau.

Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the afternoons and evening continue through the weekend. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens today. When combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are expected across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 today through Sunday. Winds will ease overnight and recoveries will be in the good (Saturday morning) to moderate range (Sunday/Monday mornings). Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak on Saturday when humidities trend lower (low teens/single digits possible), winds increase some (25-40 mph) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. Despite this, critical conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon/evening.

A potential thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of next week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which could send monsoonal moisture into the region. There is currently a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon in southeastern Modoc County before expanding to more of Lake and eastern Klamath counties. However, Tuesday looks to have a higher chance for thunderstorms.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.