textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation section

AVIATION

The coastal stratus in Coos County will lift early this afternoon. Dry air in the boundary layer will keep VFR conditions away from the coast. East of the Cascades (Klamath Falls) will have stronger westerly winds this afternoon, and gusts of 20-30 kt are forecast between 2 PM to 7 PM. There is currently a lower probability for coastal stratus in the morning as the next low arrives and will bring more cloud cover. -Smith/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 643 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026/

DISCUSSION...

A thermal trough has moved farther inland with weak onshore flow developing this morning. One can see this from the latest radiosonde observation here at MFR, although the boundary layer and lower levels of the atmosphere remains dry with some mid level clouds moving overhead.

Otherwise, it'll be another warm day, although temperatures will trend lower compared to yesterday with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 70's in some of our warmer spots.

A cold front and upper level trough will pass through southern Oregon and northern California Sunday night. This will result in a 20 to 40% chance of precipitation in some of our higher terrain and coastal locations early Monday morning. Precipitation accumulation will be low with a few hundreths falling at most in the higher Cascades and perhaps a trace in some of our valleys.

Ensembles and the deterministic models are showing convection firing in northern California near Alturas during Tuesday afternoon. It looks like this is firing on the stalled cold/stationary front with some upper level energy rotating in the afternoon. Models vary significantly on the amount of QPF Tuesday afternoon, although they all show some QPF. There is also a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms during Tuesday afternoon based on NBM data and the GFS has a small area of 100-200 J/kg of convective available potential energy in Modoc County.

Wednesday into Thursday still remains the day of concern as models are showing a low strengthening in the Pacific. The GFS looks too strong and too close to shore, so it is an outlier with regards to winds. However, the ENS ensembles all show a cold front hitting the Oregon coast sometime during the day on Wednesday with 18Z seeming like the most likely time. NBM Wind gust probabilities suggest a 50% chance of wind gusts exceeding 41 knots on Wednesday. Those probabilities are about 60 to 70 percent east of the Cascades. The Shasta Valley will also have to be monitored in future forecast issuances.

The NBM is more excited about the QPF and the snow accumulation in the mountains. In addition, snow levels will remain low through Thursday and it will be kind of like winter again!!! Currently, the NBM has snow levels 5000 feet Wednesday evening with 3000 feet during the day on Thursday after a cold front moves through and perhaps as low as 2500 feet Thursday night. With high temperatures forecast to be in the mid 50's at Medford @1300 feet and your wetbulb and freezing temp near 32 around 3300 feet, those will be some pretty strong temperature lapse rates in the boundary layer. We should see some pretty strong showers behind the front or perhaps a few rumbles of thunder.

As for snow accumulations during this event, the NBM has a 90% chance for 12 inches and a 28% chance of 24 inches at Crater Lake over 48 hours ending 4am Friday. So those 12 inch probabilities moved upwards compared to 24 hours ago. Also, the extreme forecast index(EFI) is not that excited about the snow event with values of 0.6 in the Cascades Thursday. This suggests the event should be strong for this time of year, although saying its extreme would be a reach.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 600 AM PDT Saturday, March 28, 2026...Steep seas will persist through early this morning. Winds ease today, but seas will remain steep south of Cape Blanco. Further improvement is expected on Sunday. However, building seas and stronger winds return Sunday night into Monday night with north gales possible south of Cape Blanco.

Brief improvement is likely on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front. Active weather Tuesday evening into Wednesday is forecast to bring rain with building winds possibly reaching gale force, and seas possibly becoming very steep. The outlook is for steep to very steep seas to persist late next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.