textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...12/00Z TAFs

VFR prevails this evening. We expect IFR stratus and/or fog to redevelop after sunset this evening along the coast and fill in to most locations about 5-10 miles inland overnight into Tuesday morning. The lower ceilings will be a bit farther inland (10-20 miles) into the Coquille Valley near Coquille and Myrtle Point. VFR prevails elsewhere inland tonight into Tuesday morning (including Roseburg).

Stratus/fog should lift/break up a bit at the coast Tuesday afternoon, but since the flow will be more onshore, could see some persistent cloudy areas. Southerly flow over inland areas and some instability late Tuesday afternoon/evening could lead to isolated showers and even a thunderstorm or two in the usual spots from western Siskiyou County up across the Siskiyous to the Cascades (thunder probability is about 10-20% in these areas). With decent mid-level flow anything that gets going could drift over the valleys (mostly Jackson/eastern Douglas), but as far west as Illinois Valley, Grants Pass and even perhaps Roseburg during the evening. Expect gusty southerly afternoon breezes in NorCal (esp. the Shasta Valley), but also in Oregon east of the Cascades.

Tuesday night, an upper trough will move onshore with more widespread MVFR clouds and coastal showers spreading inland by Wednesday morning. The showers could reach northern Klamath and Lake counties Wednesday morning, but areas south and east of the mountains will largely remain dry with VFR. Things mostly dry out with a much cooler air mass Wednesday afternoon. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 254 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026/

DISCUSSION...An upper ridge remains in place across much of the western United States, keeping the weather warm and dry today and on Tuesday. Daytime highs today will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal values west of the Cascades. Cities along the coast will see highs in the 70s, with low 70s near Coos Bay and mid to high 70s near Brookings. For the Umpqua Valley, temperatures look to reach into the low 80s while other west side valleys could reach the high 80s to mid 90s. East of the Cascades, lower elevation areas will be in the low to mid 80s.

An approaching upper low will nudge the ridge east on Tuesday, bringing some relief for Coos and Curry counties. Coastal cities look to be in the mid 60s, while Coo and Curry valleys will be in the mid 70s. Other areas will see similar temperatures to today. In the afternoon, winds will start to pick up across much of the area. The highest winds look to be in the Shasta Valley and across areas east of the Cascades. The latest guidance has brought the low farther north, which would result in a southwest flow aloft. This looks to keep winds in the Shasta Valley below Advisory levels. The only areas where local Advisory gusts look to be possible is over the highest terrain in eastern Lake and Modoc counties, including the Warner Mountains. Given the small size of the low and the fickleness of guidance as it has approached, the need for Advisory products cannot be written off but does look unlikely right now.

On Wednesday, the low looks to pass over or just north of the area. With this path, the effects look to be limited to light morning or early afternoon rain showers. Coos and Curry counties look to get up to a quarter of an inch of rainfall, while inland areas are forecast to see amounts in the hundreths of an inch. Slight chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast, but CAMs limited activity along the Jackson/Josephine County border so expectations are not high. Lake and Modoc counties may miss out on rainfall entirely. Gusty winds return in the afternoon, but are limited to easternmost Lake and Modoc counties.

Zonal flow and light troughing towards the end of the week will bring a cooling trend into Saturday, when temperatures may reach seasonal norms. A front passing to the north may bring some light showers to coastal areas and parts of Douglas County, but chances are low (20-40%) and amounts would be unimpactful. Warmer temperatures may return on Sunday and Monday. -TAD

AVIATION...11/18Z TAFs...VFR levels under clear skies and with normal diurnal winds are expected for northern California and souther Oregon through much of the TAF period. A change to southerly flow aloft may bring some cloud development in the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are possible along the coast this evening while inland ceilings look to remain at VFR levels. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT Monday, May 11, 2026...A thermal trough is bringing gusty northerly winds and steep seas to all area waters this afternoon. Winds ease in the evening, and seas fall below advisory levels before midnight.

An approaching compact low will increase westerly winds and swell as well as chances for marine rain showers on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are not expected and seas look to remain below Advisory levels. Northerly winds south of Cape Blanco increase on Thursday and may build steep seas on Friday. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.