textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening across mainly eastside areas: Central/eastern Siskiyou, Modoc, Klamath and Lake counties, with Klamath County favored.

* After a brief period of cooler or less warm temperatures on Thursday, temperatures will warm up, peaking on Sunday in the 90s to low 100s for inland valleys.

* Gusty winds and low humidities are expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon and evening, especially east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley.

* Smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire will result in continued impacts downwind of of the fire. Late today and tonight, smoke impacts may spread into the Rogue Valley and areas east and southeast, including Klamath County as well as into eastern Siskiyou and Modoc counties.

* A slight chance of thunderstorms is expected on Monday for areas from the Cascades and Northern California.

DISCUSSION

A high pressure ridge remains centered to the east with a low off the coast of Washington and Oregon. This pattern is bringing southwesterly flow aloft and mid level moisture into the area. This low will gradually move northeastward near the Washington coast on Thursday then northward into British Columbia on Friday.

With this pattern today, there are chances for isolated thunderstorms from the Cascades eastward and into central/eastern Siskiyou County. The best agreement in models and ensembles is for storms to develop (15-25% chance) along the Southern Oregon Cascades and over Klamath County. However chances (10-15%) for thunderstorms extend into Lake, Modoc and Siskiyou counties. Gusty outflow winds (to around 40 mph) may accompany any storms today. After sunset, the area for thunderstorms shifts north of the area.

Dry weather is expected overnight and on Thursday. Temperatures trend cooler on Thursday as the low moves along the PacNW coast. A marine push may bring low clouds along the coast into the Umpqua by early Thursday morning. Then temperature trend warmer again on Friday.

Breezy to gusty afternoon winds are expected through Friday. These winds, combined with low humidities, will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions, especially for areas east of the Cascades. For details, see the fire weather discussion below.

High pressure builds across the region Saturday and Sunday. This will result in hot temperatures develop for inland areas with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. There is a chance for temperatures reaching 100 degrees at Medford (60% chance) and at Yreka (25% chance).

Then, models show a weak upper level disturbance moving towards the area from the southwest late Sunday and Monday. The National Blend of Models supports chances for thunderstorms and showers across northern California and east of the Cascades on Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, variability remains in the handling of this disturbance and strength of the high pressure. So confidence in the details is low.

AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs

Conditions along the coast are mainly VFR with local MVFR near and north of North Bend (KOTH). Marine stratus will return to the coast this evening, bringing lover flight levels back to coastal areas. IFR/MFR may spread into the Umpqua Basin late tonight and early Friday morning.

For all other areas, expect VFR through the TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms may bring gusty winds, mainly for areas along and east of the Cascades. Afternoon and evening winds look to turn northwest late today, which is expected to bring smoke into the Rogue Valley. This may periodically impact visibilities at Medford, but reaching MVFR levels is not expected. Smoke levels should ease towards the end of this TAF period, but the pattern may repeat on Thursday.

MARINE...Updated 800 AM PDT Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Gusty northerly winds are building steep seas (overall borderline advisory) south of Cape Blanco today into tonight. North winds are expected to increase again on Friday under a thermal trough pattern. These thermal trough winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours and will likely result in small craft conditions through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated thunderstorm activity is expected for areas from the Cascades east, with the focus across Klamath and far eastern Douglas County. There are also a slight chance for thunderstorms into Lake, Modoc and central/eastern Siskiyou Counties. Thunderstorm activity is generally expected to be isolated pulse-type cells and should ease into the evening. Gusty winds (up to around 40 mph) are possible near thunderstorms today.

Gusty winds are expected to develop east of the Cascades in the afternoon and evening of Thursday and Friday. Winds and RHs on Thursday look to be near but just below critical levels. On Friday, RHs are forecast to drop and winds increase enough to support a Fire Weather Watch for the combination of those conditions. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Friday afternoon and evening in Fire Weather Zones CA285 and the southeastern portion of OR624 due to gusty winds and low humidities. Additionally, elevated Fire Weather conditions are expected in the Shasta valley with a potential for a brief period of near critical conditions late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening.

Dry conditions and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal are expected through the weekend, but winds are expected to ease to below critical speeds. Temperatures will peak on Sunday with highs in the 90s to low 100s across inland valleys. Slight chances (10- 15%) for thunderstorms are in the forecast early next week for areas east of the Cascades and across Northern California.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for ORZ624.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.