textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)

Expecting similar conditions tonight compared to last night as another marine layer push impacts both KOTH and KRBG with MVFR conditions. There could briefly be IFR conditions overnight for KOTH with chances around 40-50%. Otherwise, expecting VFR conditions for both KMFR and KLMT. Inland TAF sites will also continue to see diurnal winds with enhanced breezes in the afternoon.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 134 PM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Wildfire smoke will continue to push towards the northeast this afternoon. No air quality concerns for our forecast area.

* High temperatures will remain near normal before warming into the upper 90's for some areas Friday.

* Dry weather persists next week.

DISCUSSION...

Coastal stratus has pushed farther inland today as the low and trough in the Pacific is starting to push into the Pacific Northwest. This is resulting in some deeper west to south west flow for the entire region. The smoke from the fires in Central Oregon will continue to move towards the north east under this pattern. We're also watching the Castle Fire in eastern Douglas County produce some smoke. Given the lower intensity of the burn, air quality is not anticipated to be an issue later this afternoon and evening for northern Lake and Klamath Counties. The HRRR Smoke model does have the plume hitting Diamond Lake later this evening, so perhaps air quality will decrease there briefly.

By Sunday, models have more troughing in the Gulf of Alaska with the usual four corners high farther east over the southern Plains. This synoptic pattern will keep us under deeper south west to westerly flow and keep our high temperatures right around normal if not a few degrees below normal for late July the rest of the week.

By Sunday night into Monday, a short wave will swing into northern California with no anticipated weather impacts developing during the day. Another short wave from the Gulf of Alaska will move through by Tuesday. Pressure gradients should tighten during this time, although winds don't trend upwards according to the NBM. One would think it would be a bit breezy during Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 20 and 25 mph across the region.

This theme of short waves embedded in the deeper wave in the Gulf of Alaska continues through Thursday, although the air remains too dry to support thunderstorms here. Eventually, this deeper wave in the Gulf of Alaska will move eastwards Friday evening into Saturday with a cold front attempting to move inland. Sadly, it never gets here and we'll stay in the 90's into next weekend. Heat risk does move into the moderate range around the Shasta Valley Friday as high temps are forecast to hit the upper 90's. Otherwise, no major weather impacts the rest of next week.

AVIATION...25/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail for most locations through the TAF period, with another round of gusty southwest to westerly winds expected this afternoon. The exception to VFR will be along the coast and inland to the coastal ranges where a weak front moving inland is maintaining scattered to broken MVFR ceilings. There could be periods of VFR later this afternoon, but improvement is likely to be shortlived. Late this afternoon and overnight, expect the return of more widespread MVFR ceilings along the coast as well as inland into the Umpqua Basin, including North Bend and Roseburg. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Saturday, July 25, 2026...Overall, sub- advisory conditions under light south through westerly winds and low seas are expected into early next week. Seas will be a mix of fresh short period northwest swell and low long period south swell. North winds and steep seas could return around mid-week. /BR-y

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Saturday, July 25, 2026...

Ongoing dry conditions (illustrated by areas of single-digit daytime RHs) and forecast gusty winds will continue to bring critical fire weather concerns through the weekend. This concern will be the most constant east of the Cascades, where wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph for most areas and up to 45 mph over terrain in southern Lake and Klamath counties are expected again through this evening. Areas of moderate to perhaps some poor recoveries in easternmost Lake and Modoc counties are also expected overnight. A Red Flag Warning is in place through this evening for FWZs 623, 624, 284, and 285 for gusty winds and low RHs.

Winds will be gusty in other portions of the forecast area, although the higher humidities are keeping the fire weather risk lower in those areas. In any case, it will still be a gusty day across the forecast area with gusts 20 to 25 pretty common around the region.

Critical fire weather conditions will likely continue into Sunday within FWZs 624 and 285. We upgraded the fire weather watch and issued a red flag warning for the aforementioned zones. This warning is more borderline based on the data we saw this morning. Confidence in the winds and gusts of 30 mph in FWZ 285 is about 50%, although the southern portions of FWZ 624 should hit with RH<15 and gusts >25 more likely.

-TAD/Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM PDT Sunday below 500 feet for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM PDT Sunday below 500 feet for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.