textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Typical summer weather continues today, with warming on Friday.

* A dry cold front will bring lower temperatures and gusty winds to east of the Cascades, Rogue and Shasta valleys on Saturday. A thermal trough pattern will move gusty winds to the Umpqua, Illinois valleys and Oregon coast on Sunday.

* Temperatures warm early next week, then cool through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

A passing weak shortwave trough moving along southwestern flow aloft is bringing upper level clouds across the area. This shortwave may also bring some breezy conditions across the area this afternoon and evening. A very slight chance (~5%) remains in the forecast for dry thunderstorms in Lake and Klamath counties later through the evening. Other than these minor considerations, normal summer weather continues today. On Friday, a continental ridge retrogrades and is expected to bring temperatures about 5 degrees above normal across the area. This will put coastal areas in the in the low to mid 70s. The Umpqua Valley looks to be in the high 80s to low 90s, with other west side valleys in the high 90s. Chances for triple digits are fairly low, with NBM probabilistic guidance showing a 15% chance for parts of the Rogue and Shasta valleys to hit 100 degrees. Areas to the east will generally be in the high 80s to low 90s.

A passing dry cold front will bring cooler temperatures for most areas on Saturday and Sunday. Widespread gusty winds are possible east of the Cascades, with maximum gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. For most valleys west of the Cascades, gusts of 15 to 25 mph will be possible. With winds coming from the northwest, areas in the Rogue Valley from Shady Cove to Ashland may see more gusts on the higher end of that range. The Shasta Valley could see gusts up to 35 mph as well. Gusty winds continue into Sunday east of the Cascades, although the speeds may ease slightly. A thermal trough pattern may bring gusty northeast winds into the Illinois and Umpqua valleys as well as along the coast.

Temperatures warm back to seasonal levels on Monday as typical summer conditions are expected to return across the area. Beyond Monday, long-term models diverge somewhat although the overall impact is minimal. ECMWF deterministic imagery keeps a generally southwest flow pattern, while the GFS builds high pressure off the Canadian coast that results in northeast flow aloft. Both patterns are dry and uneventful, with GFS ensemble members leaning a few degrees cooler. For the moment, the result of both outcomes is a warm Tuesday with steady cooling through the rest of next week. -TAD

AVIATION...31/00Z TAFs

Low marine stratus with IFR/LIFR is expected to develop tonight (beginning around 07-11z) along the coast and into coastal valleys. This will mainly affect areas north of Cape Blanco, including North Bend (KOTH) and from Brookings south. IFR/LIFR will clear to VFR around 16-18z Friday. Inland, expect VFR conditions. Normal diurnal breezes are expected in the afternoons and early evenings.

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Thursday, July 30, 2026

North winds ease a bit today, with seas diminishing to around 5 ft. These conditions will persist through Friday, then a low pressure system passing to the north will produce very strong northerly winds through the weekend and into early next week, as it tightens the gradient and enhances the thermal trough to the south. Steep seas are expected for waters south of Cape Blanco by Saturday night. Gales and very steep seas are highly likely Sunday into Monday south of Cape Blanco, and periods of storm force gusts possible. Gusty winds and steep seas look to spread north of Cape Blanco. -BPN/TAD

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, July 30, 2026

The main fire weather concern will be the passage of a dry cold front Saturday. As with most dry fronts this time of year, gusty winds are expected to accompany its passage, with gusts up to 20 mph expected west of the Cascades, and of 25 to 35 mph to the east. While the front will bring some slightly improved humidities to the area, conditions will be very close to critical values for some locations, particularly the high terrain and typically windier areas of Lake and Modoc counties. This period will be watched closely, and fire weather headlines may be necessary should models dry slightly or winds increase slightly from the current forecast. -BPN/Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.