textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Skies are clear early this morning as high pressure builds in overhead, with the exceptions of fog and low clouds in the Umpqua, Coquille, Illinois, and lower Rogue valleys. Our main concern will be freezing temperatures in the valleys with low temperatures in the upper 20's in some of our southern valleys (Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, Klamath, Scott and Shasta) and mid to lower 30's in the Umpqua Basin. This is a risk for the larger agricultural operations or anyone with plants in the ground as lows approach 28 degrees here in Medford. The wild card here could is fog or freezing fog developing overnight, which will keep temperatures warmer than expected wherever it forms.

High pressure will continue to build into Friday with temperatures warming up into the upper and mid 60's west of the Cascades and lower 60's east of the Cascades. Meanwhile, a thermal trough develops along the south coast. The resulting light offshore flow should also push temperatures warmer over Brookings with highs in the upper 60's in southern Curry County, with gusty north winds along the more exposed portions of the Curry County coast.

Temperatures peak around Saturday and Sunday as a 1013 mb high settles over northern California. However, high temperatures will be a few degrees short of high temperature records.

The models are showing a trough approaching the area around the middle of the week, but many members depict this low splitting, with the open trough passing to our north, and the closed low passing onshore in central California. This results in a mostly south flow that pushes warm moist air into the region, with lift provided by a weak shortwave aloft. Ahead of the trough, the amount of convective available potential energy(CAPE) around Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon is higher than normal for this time of year. Looking at the GFS forecast soundings, a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms seems fair Monday afternoon and perhaps again Tuesday.

As the trough and low push onshore Wednesday into Thursday, the pattern transitions to one that typically results in concentrating precipitation over northern California and the far southern portions of Oregon, where moisture and instability will coincide with uplift to produce the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms. With the more southerly and southwest flow, snow levels will be high, around 6500 feet, so while beneficial rainfall is expected, little to no improvement is forecast for area snowpack. -Smith/BPN

AVIATION...03/12Z TAFs

Skies are clear with VFR prevailing across the area, with the exception of fog and low clouds in the Umpqua, Coquille, Illinois, and lower Rogue valleys. These areas of fog should clear by late morning. A thermal trough develops later today, with gusty north winds expected along the coast and over the coastal waters through the remainder of the TAF period. -BPN

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Thursday, April 2, 2026

North winds will gradually increase through today as a thermal trough develops along the coast. North winds become gusty south of Cape Blanco by this afternoon, then across all of the southern Oregon coastal waters by tonight. Gusty north winds and steep seas continue through Saturday night, then relatively calm conditions are expected early next week until the thermal trough returns with another round of strong north winds and steep seas by late Tuesday. -BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ024-026.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ021-023.

CA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.