textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion for 08/06Z TAFs.

AVIATION...08/06Z TAFs

A cold front will gradually move onshore this evening and inland tonight, then dissipate along the Cascades by early Sunday afternoon. This will bring a mix of MVFR and local IFR to the coast this evening, continuing into early Sunday morning before improving to VFR. Inland, expect MVFR and local IFR to spread into areas from the Cascades west overnight and persist into Sunday morning. Mountain obscurations are likely from the Cascades west tonight and Sunday morning. Local MVFR ceilings are possible at Klamath Falls Sunday morning. By early afternoon and into Sunday evening, expect VFR area wide with mostly light winds. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 511 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* High impact marine weather with gales, large seas, and hazardous surf conditions expected this weekend

* Inland, this is an overall low impact forecast over the next 7 days

* A cold front is expected late this afternoon that will bring rainfall to areas along/near the coast and areas west of the Cascades through early Sunday afternoon

* Chance of rain Monday but dry weather is increasingly likely Tuesday-Wednesday

* A potential period of active weather starts Thurs/Fri

DISCUSSION...Today was another warm day across northern California and southern Oregon with high temperatures averaging about 5-10F above normal. The impacts from an approaching cold front are mostly over the ocean and are described in the MARINE and BEACH HAZARDS discussions below. Coastal areas, elevated terrain, and the Shasta Valley are expected to see gusty winds continue tonight into early Sunday morning, though gusts look to be short of advisory level winds. Rainfall looks to reach the Oregon coast this evening and push eastward through Sunday morning as well. Rainfall amounts to be beneficial and non-impactful, with coastal ranges and terrain in northern Douglas County looking to get 0.33 to 0.50 inches of rainfall and lower elevations getting less. Areas east of the Cascades will likely stay dry, although a stray shower may pass over the eastern Cascades foothills.

Cold air behind this first front will help to bring seasonal warmth on Sunday afternoon. Another front, this time a warm front, looks to arrive on late Monday morning. Forecast rainfall totals increase over Curry County terrain, where an inch of rain could fall. Curry and northern Douglas counties as well as the Illinois Valley could get another 0.25-0.50 inches. Other west side valleys and northern Klamath County look to get a few hundreths of an inch.

While features that could bring active weather remain in model imagery towards the end of next week, the likelihood of them reaching the area remains in question. An upper trough approaches from the west on Thursday, but imagery shows a continental trough pushing against that trough and encouraging a split which sends the energy and moisture to southern California. Meteogram guidance is showing agreement with this outcome, with minimal chances for rain at Brooking and North Bend at the end of next week. With the ridge showing more influence, a slight warming trend is in the forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.

On Friday, southwest flow around a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska looks to bring some coastal showers. At first, orographic lift looks to be the only mechanism that will produce precipitation, keeping inland areas drier. A shortwave trough may be able to push precipitation farther inland, but meteogram guidance for both the ECMWF and GFS aren't especially confident in that outcome. Meteogram guidance is showing some chances for 1-4 inches of at Crater Lake and lesser amounts at Klamath Falls and Alturas. If precipitation can be pushed inland late next weekend, it is starting to look more unimpactful. -TAD

AVIATION...08/00Z TAFs...A cold front will gradually move onshore this evening and inland tonight, then dissipate along the Cascades by early Sunday afternoon. This will bring a mix of MVFR and local IFR to the coast this evening, continuing into early Sunday morning before improving to VFR. Low level wind shear is also expected along the coast this evening as this front moves onshore. Inland, expect MVFR and local IFR to spread into areas from the Cascades west overnight and persist into Sunday morning. Mountain obscurations are likely from the Cascades west tonight and Sunday morning. By early afternoon, expect VFR areawide.

MARINE...Updated 445 PM PST Saturday, November 7, 2026...A cold front will bring rain, gales and very steep seas across the northern waters this evening. Background swells will be around 10-14 feet at 13 seconds, while wind waves build to 9-13 feet at just 7 seconds. This is expected across most of the northern waters north of Cape Blanco and also beyond 5 NM from shore north of Cape Arago. To the south, gusty south winds, swell and wind waves combine to bring steep and hazardous seas to small craft. Seas will be 10-14 feet at 13 seconds. Winds will subside late tonight, but high to very high long period westerly swell arrives Sunday and continues through Sunday evening resulting in warning level seas for all waters. Seas will likely peak around 17-22 feet at 16 seconds Sunday afternoon/evening. Seas may ease somewhat early next week. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS...Long period westerly swell will move into the coastal waters late tonight and Sunday morning, then peak at 17-22 feet at 16 seconds Sunday afternoon/evening. This will produce breaker heights in the surf zone of 22-27 feet. A High Surf Advisory is in effect.

Large breaking waves will create hazardous conditions along and within the surf zone, and could inundate beaches and low lying shorelines. Beach erosion is possible, and exposed infrastructure may be damaged. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-370.