textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...21/00Z TAFs

Areas of LIFR from Cape Blanco northward, including North Bend, and near Brookings are expected to fill in along the entire coast after 04Z this evening then persist through most of Tuesday morning. Patchy LIFR will linger north of Cape Blanco later Tuesday before widespread LIFR returns Tuesday evening.

Areas of mid-level and mostly high-level clouds will continue to produce VFR ceilings over portions of northern California and southern Oregon through Tuesday morning. These clouds could produce a few light showers or virga, mainly over Modoc and Lake counties, including Lakeview. By Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday evening, cumulus buildups are expected with a slight chance of thunderstorms in western and central Siskiyou County, also north and northeastward along the Cascades and across much of south central Oregon. There is a slight chance of wildfire smoke affecting the Medford and Klamath Falls terminals.

MARINE...Updated 730 PM PDT Monday, July 20, 2026

North winds are gradually subsiding with conditions improving for all areas overnight. Mixed seas then persist Tuesday through Friday with fresh short period northwest swell and also a low longer period south swell due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Elida. Wind wave dominated seas may return during the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 135 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Hazy or smoky conditions will persist for much of SW Oregon south of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide, including Jackson, Klamath, Lake, and Siskiyou counties, with some temporary afternoon into early evening improvement expected as afternoon breezes mix the air near the surface. New fires near the Illinois Valley and the Klamath Basin could add to the smoke in those areas. * Isolated to scattered showers today beneath a canopy of mid and high level cloudiness. Instability is limited, so thunder chances are low - generally 10% or less. Same goes for Tuesday, though odds of thunder are a bit higher 5-15%. The highest risk of thunderstorms for the area will be on Wednesday (could reach scattered coverage Cascades/Foothills eastward), including lesser chances for areas west of the Cascades.

* Remaining hot inland during the next week with highs generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal (mid 80s to mid 90s on the east side and lower 90s to 103 for west side valleys). Near or slightly below normal temperatures at the coast will reach the 60s.

* A drier pattern takes hold late week, but probably with an increase in afternoon/evening breezes, especially east of the Cascades.

DISCUSSION...The main players in our weather pattern this week will be low pressure over the eastern Pacific (including tropical remnants), ridging centered near the Rockies, and a plume of monsoonal moisture wedged in between. This plume of moisture aloft has brought mid and high level clouds into the area today and generating a few light showers. Instability, however, is weak and convection allowing models are suggesting little or no lightning activity. Most precip will evaporate before reaching the ground, but could bring a few hundredths here or there (especially over higher terrain). Showers will diminish this afternoon and evening, and since the mid and high level clouds linger through at least this afternoon, we don't think we'll get enough instability for much thunderstorm activity (if any). Models keep thunderstorm probabilities today at generally 10% or less.

On Tuesday, a general lack of instability and forcing will keep the convective forecast at a minimum. Even so, we should see at least a thinning of the high cloud cover, so some instability could generate isolated activity, mainly near or just north of Crater Lake in the Cascades and southeastward down to around the Warners during the afternoon/evening. Storm coverage will be isolated at best.

Wednesday, stronger southerly flow aloft is expected between the trough offshore tracking northward (including the remnants of Tropical Storm Elida) and the persistent ridge over the Great Basin/Rockies. There is still a modest amount of uncertainty in the convective forecast (especially with areal extent), but there is a decent chance of scattered thunderstorm coverage over a broad portion of our area, to include areas from the Cascades eastward and also portions of the west side (most likely Douglas County east of Roseburg, but also the Siskiyous and western foothills of the Cascades south and east of the Rogue Valley). Farther south and west, coverage should be more isolated or non- existent (coast). Storms do look to trend wetter over time with highest precipitable water values at around 200% of normal (perhaps near or above 1.50 inches). While a widespread severe weather outbreak is not likely, a stronger cell or two could produce strong, gusty winds. Generally, any storms that develop Wednesday will move to the north to northeast, contain frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds, and could produce periods of heavy rainfall.

The region of greatest instability looks to shift northeastward on Thursday, possibly lingering into northern and/or eastern portions of the east side. For Friday into next weekend, a shift to an onshore flow pattern is likely with a more stable, dry air mass, along with enhanced afternoon and evening winds. -Spilde/BPN

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday, July 20, 2026...A broad moist plume moving south to north today is producing some light showers across the area, with no lightning recorded so far today. With relatively warm air aloft and the high elevation of the moisture creating extensive mid and high level clouds, instability is limited. Some of the radar returns are reaching the ground as light rain showers/sprinkles (especially at higher elevations), but measurable rainfall has been hard to come by. The probability of lightning is not zero, but odds stand at around 5-10%.

On Tuesday, there is still an overall lack of instability and forcing, so the chances for showers and thunderstorms remain low. The best chance will be late in the day/evening near the Cascades north of Crater Lake and southeastward along Winter Rim over to the Warner Mtns. This activity looks isolated at best and don't think any headlines are necessary.

By Wednesday, there is a greater concern for increased afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage. This is due to better instability expected in advance of moisture arriving in southerly flow aloft at peak heating along with the potential for better forcing as the remnants of Tropical Storm Elida push northward offshore. We think the greatest activity in terms of coverage will occur from the Siskiyous and western slopes of the Cascades (FWZ 621, and eastern 622/617) east across the Cascades (FWZ623), and then also east of the Cascades in the typical arc (FWZs 624/625). Isolated storms are also possible elsewhere across the area, including in northern California and across the valleys west of the Cascades. With lightning potential appearing much more abundant Wednesday, a fire weather watch has been issued for the main areas of concern. We should mention that since we're expecting this air mass to be modified tropical, these storms should become wetter over time, and may even produce periods of heavy rain within their cores.

Late in the week (Thursday/Friday), eastward movement in the upper level pattern is likely, which is likely to shift the region of instability east of our area. But, a plausible, slower solution would keep instability and some slight thunderstorm risk over the east side on Thursday. The bigger impact late in the week into next weekend would be the risk of enhanced westerly winds occurring during the afternoons and evenings east of the Cascades along with low humidity. -Spilde/BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for ORZ617-621>625.

CA...PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.