textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

A persistent marine layer continues to impact KOTH with low clouds. This will be the case throughout this valid TAF cycle with persistent MVFR conditions. Inland, satellite imagery shows this layer has spilled into the Umpqua valley, and this will result in MVFR conditions this morning for KRBG before some relief this afternoon, but similar conditions expected again overnight. Otherwise, farther inland both KMFR and KLMT will experience VFR conditions throughout the valid TAF period. Lastly, typical diurnal breezes expected this afternoon and early evening.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 239 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...

Key Points:

* Limited impacts the next several days - Most notable will be the well above normal temperatures - Some areas 10-15+ degree above normal * Drying trend starts today - No signal for precipitation in the forecast at this time

Further Details:

A ridge of high pressure will build in over the region today as a long wave trough consumes much of the central and eastern CONUS. Overall, this ridge will be the dominated upper level pattern for the region through much of the forecast with one caveat Friday. There will be a weak shortwave entering the PacNW on Friday, but this is very progressive in the eastward progression and will likely only result in cooler temperatures for our area. Friday is the overall "coolest" day in the forecast, but we are still forecasting above normal temperatures on this day.

There is a signal in the extended forecast for this ridge to essentially remain in place through middle parts of May. This could result in continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions which may result in an accelerated period of drying for fuels. Through May, the Climate Prediction Center is indicating a strong signal for above normal temperatures, and a weak signal for below normal precipitation chances. In fact, there is a signal for this trend to continue May-June-July with El Nino chances likely (61% chance) to emerge through this period, and persist through at least the end of 2026.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

A fairly deep marine layer exists along the coast this evening with MVFR ceilings around 1500 ft. These ceilings briefly broke at North Bend this afternoon into this evening, but will return overnight and could lower to IFR at times as well (in the 500-1000 ft range). Ceilings are expected to fill into the Umpqua Basin again later tonight, so MVFR is likely to return to Roseburg and last through most of the morning before breaking to VFR after 18Z. Medford should remain VFR, though patches of stratus could spill through gaps in the Umpqua Divide to near Grants Pass. Stratus impacting the northern portions of the Sacramento Valley (near Redding) has expanded into areas near and just south/southeast of Mt. Shasta (far SE Siskiyou/SW Modoc counties) and will persist into mid-morning before breaking to VFR again. Elsewhere, conditions will remain VFR through Wednesday evening.

-Spilde/DW

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, May 6, 2026...An extended period of relatively calm conditions will continue through Friday, with west-northwest swell dominated seas likely remaining below 8 ft. Wind speeds briefly increase Thursday morning south of Cape Blanco, but remain below advisory conditions and quickly diminish in the afternoon. A thermal trough will develop Saturday morning and strengthen through the weekend, resulting in gusty north winds and steep seas through early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.