textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...04/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail across the region with areas of cumulus developing over the terrain in northern California and east of the Cascades. VFR will persist into the evening hours along with the typical gusty late afternoon/early evening breezes. A solid marine layer will return to the coast after 03Z from Cape Blanco northward, and after 07Z to the south coast near Brookings. A similar pattern of dissipating clouds is expected after sunrise on Saturday, with VFR expected by 18Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 255 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026/

KEY POINTS...

* Low impact weather expected through the 4th of July holiday.

* Summer like conditions return today with temperatures trending to 5 to 10 degrees above normal, peaking Sunday.

* No precipitation in the forecast through Saturday.

* Sunday/Monday - Slight chance thunderstorms across northern California and East Side, most likely across northern Klamath/Lake Counties

* Wednesday - Dry front raises potential fire weather concerns for gusty winds/low RH east of Cascades.

DISCUSSION...Summer conditions return today as heights build slightly and temperatures trend warmer to just a few degrees above normal. Meanwhile, high pressure currently over the eastern CONUS will weaken and expand westward across the southern U.S. This high pressure tries build over the Desert Southwest through the weekend, but energy and moisture from the southeast Pacific will move into southern California late in the weekend, keeping the ridge subdued some. Meanwhile, weak low pressure waves will continue to move into British Columbia, leaving the area under southwest flow Sunday into early next week.

We don't expect impactful weather through the 4th of July holiday. Temperatures will trend warmer over the weekend, peaking around 5 to 10 degrees above normal (upper 80s East/mid 90s West). We don't expect any heat related impacts into early next week and we should get through most of the Holiday weekend with fairly benign/typical weather.

With southwest flow over the region and high pressure in the dessert southwest, we've been scrutinizing the pattern for any days where thunderstorms or the combination of gusty winds/low RH could be a concern. Details are becoming clearer, and it now looks like we could see some isolated thunderstorms in the region on Sunday and Monday. We'll be on the periphery of that previously mentioned moisture and energy that moves into the mid-lattitudes Sunday and Monday, and models show enough moisture/instability in the region for a slight chance of thunderstorms across northern California and east of the Cascades. The better agreement is for area across northern Klamath and Lake Counties, primarily from Chemult eastward, but these southwest flow patterns tend to increase the risk across northern California as well. Instability is currently lacking for Tuesday, so this day looks less concerning for thunderstorm potential.

On Wednesday, models are in good agreement for a weakening front to approach the area from the northwest. A deep marine push is possible Tuesday night as this front moves inland and it's possible there could be a few sprinkles for locations along the coast Wednesday morning. The front really falls apart, however, as it moves inland, so this front will likely go unnoticed for most folks. Temperature will trend cooler by a few degrees on Wednesday, but no where near as mild as we've seen over the last week or so. The bigger impact from this front will be enhanced afternoon winds that potentially combine with lower humidities and result in fire weather concerns east of the Cascades. Stay tuned for updates. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Friday, July 3, 2026...Gusty north winds will persist through the weekend and into early next week, maintaining steep to very steep seas. Conditions will be somewhat improved today as winds are lower compared to recent days. Advisory level winds will persist south of Cape Blanco and maintain steep seas south of Port Orford into early Saturday. Conditions worsen Saturday afternoon as north winds increase. Steep seas will return to areas north of Cape Blanco with very steep seas developing south of Cape Blanco and beyond 5 nm from shore. There could be a brief period of gale force gusts Saturday afternoon south of Gold Beach between 10 and 30 nm from shore. These conditions are likely to persist through Sunday, then improve early next week as north winds weaken. /BR-y

FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of late day thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday for northern California and south central Oregon, with the highest probability for northern/eastern Klamath and northern Lake counties on Sunday evening. A few thunderstorms may also develop in Lake and Modoc counties on Sunday night into Monday morning. The main model difference regards whether the extent of the risk in northern California will be similar or less than that of south central Oregon. It also bears mentioning that there are also a small minority of ensemble members that extend a slight chance thunderstorm risk into southwest Oregon on either day.

Otherwise, high temperatures remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, ridge top humidity recoveries will remain moderate, and afternoon breezes remain typical to slightly enhanced during the next week. This will result in very dry conditions near critical wind and humidity thresholds, especially on the east side on Tuesday and Wednesday. Models have trended slightly weaker with a dry cold front on Wednesday, but east side breezes and low minimum humidities may nudge across critical thresholds. Also, gusty northeast winds will continue at coastal ridges during the overnight hours through Sunday, strongest early on Sunday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ376.