textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs

VFR conditions will persist through Monday night for most the area. An exception will be areas of LIFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities over the marine waters and along the coast north of Gold Beach, including North Bend (KOTH), through around 18Z this morning. Also, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening for both the Winter Rim (along the border of Klamath and Lake counties), and in southern Siskiyou County near Mt. Shasta.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 324 AM PDT Mon Apr 6 2026/

DISCUSSION...In general, upper level troughing will dominate the weather this week, though we'll be between systems under a split flow regime. Waves of low pressure will skate by to the north through British Columbia this week while another low pressure system meanders offshore of California through mid-week before moving southward over the weekend. Temperatures will trend cooler with periods of showers and thunderstorms possible through week, especially the latter half of the week. Heading into the weekend, the northern branch of systems sags farther south, bringing more stable conditions with increasing chances for more widespread showers and cooler temperatures.

A quiet morning is underway with satellite showing some scattered mid and high level clouds across the region, and no returns on the radar. Overall, today will be much like yesterday with mostly clear skies and afternoon temperatures more typical of June than April. One difference, however, will be the chance for some isolated shower/thunderstorms this afternoon across the Cascades and into northern Klamath/Lake Counties. Models indicate sufficient instability and moisture in these areas, but the weaker signal is a sufficient trigger to initiate any convection. High resolution convection allowing models (CAMs) are pinpointing the northern portions of Klamath and Lake Counties today, but still with fairly low chances (10-20%) for lightning. Some shower activity is also possible along the Siskiyous and farther south around the Trinity Horn, but instability parameters are less favorable for lightning activity there. Instability and mid-level moisture decrease on Tuesday, so we aren't expecting any showers/thunderstorms. It does get breezy in the afternoon, however, as another wave passes to the north and low pressure offshore moves closer to the coast. Winds will be strongest east of the Cascades with gusts of 15 to 25 mph common. Afternoon temperatures trend lower by about 5 to 10 degrees, most notable across northern areas.

Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by Wednesday and linger through the remainder of the week. Low pressure moves closer to the California coast on Wednesday and hovers there through Friday. This will put the region under favorable dynamics for showers and thunderstorms, especially Thursday and Friday. Overall, the greatest activity is expected south of the OR/CA border, but there are some position differences on the location of the upper level low and this will influence how far north of the OR/CA border that showers/thunderstorms make it. For Wednesday, most activity is expected across northern California with the northern most extent expected Thursday and Friday. Despite the position differences, the better chances for shower/thunderstorm activity will be across northern California, Siskiyous/Cascades and the East Side. With southerly flow, however, showers/thunderstorms over the Siskiyous could move into portions of Jackson/Josephine Counties Thursday and Friday afternoons.

Low pressure shifts southward on Saturday as low pressure from the north digs southward. This will bring stabilizing conditions for areas west of the Cascades under a more westerly flow pattern. There looks to be some lingering instability across Lake/Modoc counties for Saturday, but it looks more like it'll just be showers with no lightning. There are some differences in just how far south this northern low will make it, so confidence is low for widespread precipitation at this time for Sunday into Monday. Best chances will be along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin as well as the Cascades, with the current National Blend of Models giving about a 40-60% chance of precipitation for those areas and 20-30% chance for everywhere else. Snow levels are forecast to lower to around 5000 ft (could be lower if this system ends up farther south), but with the main dynamics to the north, snow amounts are currently expected to be light. High temperatures will feel pretty cool due to how warm it currently is, but in reality, high temperatures will return to more seasonal values over the weekend (mid 50s East, mid 60s West).

While details are highly variable at this point in time, both GFS and EC ensembles maintain periods of wet weather with temperatures closer to seasonable values beyond the weekend and through next week. This lines up well with the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook which predicts temperatures and precipitation both leaning toward above normal values (30-50% chance).

MARINE...Updated 115 AM PDT Monday, April 6, 2026...Relatively calm conditions are expected through tonight. A weak thermal trough develops on Tuesday, resulting some gusty north winds that will create borderline advisory level seas Tuesday through Wednesday. The thermal trough weakens on Wednesday as the upper level pattern transitions. A trough approaches the California coast on Thursday, then shifts southward over the weekend. This will continue the pattern of low pressure inland and high pressure offshore, resulting in periods of increased north winds and steep seas with borderline advisory conditions through the end of the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.