textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread showers today will diminish through tonight. While most areas will receive light rain, western Siskiyou County, the Cascades, and far eastern Modoc and Lake counties could receive over an inch of rain through tonight.

* Gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon/evening, with gusts 25-35 mph continuing overnight over terrain.

* Dry conditions Friday through much of Sunday; clearing skies Friday night expected to bring Frost/Freeze conditions to West Side Valleys Saturday morning.

* Low pressure late Sunday into Monday could bring light precipitation along and west of Cascades.

DISCUSSION

Low pressure continues to swirl over California, pushing plenty of moisture into the region. Meanwhile, an incoming trough can be seen on satellite approaching the Pacific Northwest. The trough will sweep the California low eastward later today and bring a dry cold front through the region overnight into early Friday. High pressure moves eastward on Friday, lingering just offshore through much of the weekend. Low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska dampens the ridge and moves into the Pacific Northwest late Sunday into Tuesday.

Between the two systems today, a deformation zone has developed along a line from western Siskiyou county through the Rogue Valley and over the Cascades to northern Klamath County. This is where the bulk of showers are appearing on radar as of this afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be fairly light overall, up to a tenth, for most areas, but as the deformation zone shifts east and the front approaches later this afternoon and evening, the highest precipitation amounts will be focused across eastern Siskiyou/Klamath/southern Lake Counties and much of Modoc County, where rainfall amounts could reach between 0.5 to 1" (higher end amounts most likely in favored upslope areas of the Warner/Hart mountains).

Precipitation chances drop off quickly from west to east as the day progresses today, with showers lingering across the East Side into the evening before this system finally gets swept eastward by a kicker trough from the northwest tonight. This kicker trough will bring a dry cold front through the region late this evening and overnight into Friday morning. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected later this afternoon as this front moves through the region. Since this front is coming through later in the day and overnight, winds won't be quite as strong as if there was full daytime mixing, but gusts of 25-35 mph will be common across the higher terrain tonight, especially along and east of the Warners/Winter Ridge. This front will be dry for the most part, but guidance is showing some light rain potential along the north facing slopes of the Siskiyous and the Rogue-Umpqua Basin. Otherwise, gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Friday will be the main impacts from this incoming front. Expect some chilly temperatures Friday morning (mid-upper 30s West, mid-upper 20s East), but ample cloud cover should limit frost conditions for West Side Valleys.

Dry conditions return by Friday morning as high pressure settles just offshore where it will linger through much of the weekend. Quiet, low impact weather is expected through the weekend. High temperatures trend a few degrees cooler for Friday (low 60s West/low- mid 50s East), then warm by around 5-10 degrees for Saturday and Sunday. With clear skies expected Friday night, low temperatures Saturday morning will be the coolest of the forecast period and this will be the best chance for frost/freeze conditions in the West Side Valleys. A frost advisory has been issued only for the Umpqua and Coquille valleys as all other inland areas have experienced a freeze this season.

Guidance is finally coming into better agreement with a trough next week. There is general agreement on a weaker than previously advertised trough coming from the Gulf of Alaska that will dampen the offshore ridge and move into the Pacific Northwest sometime late Sunday through Tuesday. There are location differences in the trajectory of this trough. The EC camp is a bit farther south than the GEFS, which would bring slightly higher precipitation chances/amounts. Either solution favors the higher chances (20-40%) along and west of the Cascades centered on Sunday night into Monday. Precipitation amounts are currently forecast to be fairly light again, which isn't exactly the best of news considering the dry October we've had so far. Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler for early next week and low impact weather looks to continue through much of next week.

AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs

Widespread showers this afternoon will diminish this evening. Expect low ceilings and increased terrain obscurations within areas of rain, which may drop some inland terminals to MVFR. IFR ceilings will persist along the coast north of Cape Blanco, with LIFR conditions expected south of Gold Beach. Gusty west to northwest winds (15-25 kts) will develop this afternoon and persist over the terrain through tonight, and in some valleys through late evening. COnditions should gradually improve overnight, with prevailing VFR by morning, with the exception of areas of low visibility and ceilings along the coats and in patchy valley fog west of the Cascades.

MARINE...Updated 1130 AM PDT Thursday, October 22, 2026

A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast through Friday morning. This will maintain gusty north winds and steep across area waters, strongest this afternoon and south of Gold Beach. Very steep seas are expected to develop beyond 5 nm from shore later this evening and overnight. Conditions improve north of Cape Blanco on Friday as north winds ease, but hazardous conditions will persist in the south. Improvement in all areas is expected over the weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-370.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ370.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 8 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ376.