textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Slight cooling today with highs around normal. High temperatures then trend to 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Friday, and likely remain near that level each day for the following week. Heat is forecast to peak on Sunday in the 90s to low 100s for inland valleys.

* Gusty winds and low humidities are expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon and evening, especially east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. Though less critical, dry, hot, and breezy weather is also expected today and during the weekend.

* Smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire will result in continued impacts downwind of of the fire. Conditions improve from late morning into early afternoon. But, late today into tonight, smoke impacts may spread into a larger portion of the Rogue Valley and areas east and southeast, including Klamath County as well as into eastern Siskiyou and western Modoc counties.

* A slight chance of thunderstorms is expected on Monday and Tuesday, mainly east of the Cascades Monday, then again but possibly also including the Cascades on Tuesday. There is a wider variation in model solutions for Wednesday onward, but a potential for continued convective activity.

DISCUSSION

Yesterday, our region was between a trough offshore and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Today, the trough will track toward the Washington coast. This will be enough of a shift to bring slight cooling, with a stable air mass of maritime origin. Also, a stronger push than typical of low clouds from the coast into the coastal valleys and central portion of the Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg. A marine push is also expected during subsequent nights into Sunday morning, but trending just slightly weaker for Friday morning, and more noticeably so during the weekend.

With a break from convective concerns, the focus shifts to hot, very dry, and breezy weather today through Sunday. Breezy to locally windy afternoon and evening winds are expected. Winds will be strongest today and Friday, and especially for the Shasta Valley and East Side. Humidity levels will be driest on Friday and Saturday, while temperatures are likely to trend back to 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the weekend...peaking on Sunday at values similar to those of the past few days.

Air mass moisture amounts are expected to rise starting on Sunday, likely initially beginning with high clouds streaming into the East Side. The GFS indicates some slight possibility of shortwave induced thunderstorms developing Sunday night or Monday morning. But, the higher probability is for the ingredients to come together on Monday afternoon for isolated thunderstorms on the East Side with a higher risk for the eastern portion of our area. This pattern has some similarity to what occurred yesterday into this morning, with a trough expected to track northeast toward Washington.

In the long term, beginning Wednesday, the 00Z GFS and its ensemble members are leaning toward a slower solution with continued convective activity. Meantime, a majority of ECMWF ensemble members (around 90%) indicate a shift on Wednesday to a stable air mass resembling today's transition. The NBM covers this uncertainty well with a modest 5% to 10% risk from the Cascades eastward on Day 6 and Day 7.

AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs

A drier airmass aloft will produce clear to mostly clear skies for most of the area into Friday. But, two major exceptions will be coastal stratus and wildfire smoke.

The stratus from today into Friday will be in place mainly during the morning and night, and mainly MVFR with patchy LIFR near Brookings. MVFR will spread into the central Umpqua Valley (including Roseburg) for the early morning hours. Meantime, smoke is being carried east-southeastward from northern and eastern Jackson County into Klamath County, and has moved into the Klamath Basin. This is resulting in reduced visibility at Klamath Falls, oscillating between VFR and MVFR. This should improve after about 17Z this morning. But, expect another push of smoke this afternoon which could bring another round of MVFR visibilities into both Medford and Klamath Falls.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, July 16, 2026

Improved conditions are expected today, though with an area of gusty winds this afternoon in the inner waters near Brookings. Increasing north winds will build steep seas south of Cape Blanco Friday afternoon under a thermal trough pattern. These thermal trough winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours, with the possibility of spreading to all waters by Saturday afternoon before seas reach a peak on Sunday. Winds are expected to diminish on Monday with seas dominated by fresh swell early next week.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, July 16, 2026

We will transition to a stable air mass today, with a shift in focus to hot, very dry, and breezy to windy conditions through Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon in Fire Weather Zone CA285 and the southern portion of OR624. This covers southeast Klamath, southwest Lake, and Modoc counties.

It will be a bit cooler today, but winds and relative humidity this afternoon and evening look to be near, but just below critical levels, with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. Winds today and Friday are expected to be strongest in the area roughly south and east of Klamath Falls, to include Lake and Modoc counties, and eastern portions of Klamath and Siskiyou counties. Winds will be southwest in that area, but generally west to northwest elsewhere. The combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity is likely to reach critical levels on Friday afternoon for southeast Klamath, southwest Lake, and Modoc counties.

With one exception, winds will be at a similar level of strength on Friday afternoon, but minimum humidities will be even lower. The exception is that breezy south winds in the Shasta Valley early this afternoon are expected to shift to north winds late in the afternoon (with gusts up to 25 mph), and then have stronger south winds in the Shasta Valley (with gusts up to 30 mph) for Friday afternoon.

Though backing off slightly from critical levels, hot, dry, and breezy conditions will continue across our area on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal are expected Friday through the weekend. Humidity recoveries will be at a peak on Friday morning, then trend lower again. Afternoon wind speeds will trend back to typical values by Sunday, while humidities remain very low on Saturday then on Sunday will trend higher, to very near to barely higher in comparison to today's values.

The air mass will begin to moisten on Sunday with an increase of high clouds, and perhaps some east side cumulus buildups. Instability could develop as early as late Sunday night into Monday morning, but the risk of thunderstorms is not expected to rise to a mentionable slight chance for thunderstorms until Monday afternoon, continuing on Tuesday. The probability on Monday is highest for Lake County, secondarily into eastern Siskiyou, Modoc, and Klamath counties. The model variance in solutions increases Tuesday, though with the highest probability again on the east side.

Model uncertainty increases further beginning Wednesday with differences in whether the unstable air mass will linger or shift east of our area.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for ORZ624.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.