textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation and Marine sections updated.

DISCUSSION

Issued 215 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026

The axis of an upper level ridge is overhead this afternoon. The fog/low clouds from earlier today have burned off and if lots of sunshine is your thing and these mild late February temperatures aren't too hard to take, well, then this is a banner day for you. Get out there and enjoy it.

Of course, things are expected to change a bit this weekend. A cut off low is still well offshore, but warm advection in advance of it will cause the air mass to moisten considerably and some light rain could break out as early as Saturday morning across NorCal and SW Oregon. As this area lifts to the north, and the flow backs to the SW, the atmosphere will become more unstable Saturday afternoon -- ie, steadier light rain shifts north and precipitation becomes more showery in nature. Models yesterday showed most of the instability to the south of the area, but recent CAM guidance, has nudged the instability (200-500 J/KG) and steepening mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7.5C/km) a bit farther north beneath a decent upper level (~100-kt) jet streak. Lightning probabilities from the NBM are shown to be in the 15-30% range across most of NorCal with probabilities dropping off to below 10% across northern sections of the CWA. While most of the HREF paintball of >40 dbZ (radar reflectivity) shows the majority of the healthier cells across NorCal Sat pm/eve, there is potential (10-15% chance) for an isolated cell or two to move across SE Jackson, southern Klamath or southern Lake counties too. Main risks with any of the healthier showers Saturday afternoon/evening will be lightning, downpours, small hail and brief wind gusts. The jet streak shifts eastward Saturday night and the lightning risk should diminish for a while. But, the cut off low will gradually move eastward, eventually moving onshore Sunday evening. This will maintain unsettled weather across much of the area Sunday with more showers and still a slight chance of thunderstorms. Snow levels during most of this period of unsettled weather will be quite high -- rising to around 8000-9000 feet Saturday, then lowering back to around 6000-6500 feet Sunday night. So, winter weather impacts are not expected or will be minimal at best. This system will shift into the Great Basin on Monday. Still could be some lingering moisture and a chance of showers, but these should be diminishing through the day.

Upper ridging will build in at least briefly Monday night into Tuesday morning, but a progressive pattern in WNW flow aloft will bring the next upper trough back into the picture as early as Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances increase along the coast and NW sections of the forecast area then (20-50% chance), but most locations south and east of there should escape with a dry day. Temperatures remain mild for the first week of March with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s west of the Cascades and 55-60F over the East Side.

The fairly sharp upper trough is expected to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Expect a period of light to moderate precipitation to accompany the cold front (all areas - 60-90% chance) with the focus along the coast and into the Cascades. Snow levels will drop during this event, down to 4000-5000 feet by Wednesday evening, but this will still keep most winter impacts confined to the higher terrain and Cascade passes. There is a high 24-hr probability of 4 inches of snow or greater (85% chance) at Crater Lake National Park through Wednesday night, but the probability diminishes to 40% at Lake of the Woods on Highway 140. Preliminary guesstimates would be for a 3-7 inch snowfall above 5000 feet in the Cascades with higher amounts to 10 inches above 5500 feet. Behind the front, showers probably diminish by Wednesday evening for the Rogue Valley (and southeast of the Cascades), but onshore flow keeps them going along the coast, to around the Rogue-Umpqua Divide and over to the Cascades. Back side energy could still bring low chances (15-30%) of showers on Thursday across NW sections, with dry weather elsewhere.

Model guidance is waffling on the details (strength/timing/etc) regarding another potential trough swinging southward late next week or next weekend. For now, it looks like an increase in precip chances again late Friday or Friday night across the NW, but that's as detailed as we'd like to be at this range. We'll continue to monitor and let you know how things evolve. -Spilde

AVIATION....28/06Z TAFS

Areas of LIFR conditions in fog/low clouds are expected to return to the the Umpqua Valley/Roseburg and the Coquille Valley overnight (beginning 08-11z) and persist through mid to late morning (16-18z). Offshore winds are present at North Bend this evening and expect these to weaken late tonight. So, moderate confidence they will see MVFR or IFR in patchy fog late tonight/early Saturday morning. Elsewhere, expect continued VFR conditions. Rain will move into the region from the south Saturday morning and afternoon with increasing mid level clouds, areas of mountain obscurations. Additionally isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and early evening in northern California (15% chance) and potentially into parts of southwest Oregon including near Grants Pass, Medford and Klamath Falls (5-10% chance).

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Friday, February 27, 2026

Breezy north to northeast winds and steep northwest seas are expected across the waters into Saturday morning. Conditions improve Saturday afternoon into Sunday as winds ease and northwest swell subsides. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to persist through early next week. Hazardous conditions may return around mid-week as southerly winds increase and Tuesday into Wednesday followed by an increasing northwest swell late Wednesday into Thursday.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PST Friday, February 27, 2026

A long period north to northwest swell is building into the waters this afternoon, bringing a moderate risk of sneaker waves that will persist through the evening hours. If you plan to visit area beaches this afternoon, be sure to keep your eye on the ocean. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. If you see someone swept into the ocean, do not go in after them. Remain onshore, call for help and keep an eye on them until help arrives. NEVER turn your back on the ocean! /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ021- 022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.