textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

/Issued 208 PM PDT Fri May 29 2026/

SYNOPSIS...

Conditions trend drier and cooler into tonight. Freezing temperatures are probable east of the Cascades tonight and Saturday night. There is a low chance of showers or a few thunderstorms in northern California Saturday afternoon. A warming trend will begin Sunday and continue into Tuesday as high temperatures will be well above normal.

DISCUSSION...

Still some showers on radar this afternoon as this upper level low moves out of the forecast area. Some drier air is starting to filter in, although plenty of cumulus clouds remain in the area this afternoon. With the passing of a cold front according to WPC surface analysis, we'll see temperatures remain below normal and cool tonight. Temperatures trend about 6 to 12 degrees lower with the biggest drop east of the Cascades. This will lead to freezing temperatures in some sections of Lake and Klamath counties. The probability of low temperatures <32 F in Klamath Falls and Lakeview is 45% and 40% tonight and 65% and 50% Saturday night.

Even with the passing of this cold front, temperatures should move a little higher on Saturday with cloud cover in the morning. That cloud cover will clear out during the afternoon as drier air mixes into the boundary layer and mid levels. Models still have a low chance of showers or perhaps a few thunderstorms in northern California Saturday afternoon. The thunderstorm probabilities/PoPs are between 10-15% in sections of northern California. The thermodynamics look pretty poor on the forecast soundings, so virga showers seem most likely.

By Sunday, conditions will continue to dry and a short wave will combine with some other upper level energy over the northern Rockies. Eventually, a cut off low will develop over Idaho and Montana late Monday into Tuesday. Main impact for our area will be light easterly breezes over the Cascades and some notably drier and warmer air. Highs will push towards 90 here in Medford on Tuesday and upper 60's along the coast. One could analyze a thermal trough here as well with the 1000-500 mb thickness contours. A 500 mb ridge briefly builds, so that will also contribute to our notable warm up by Tuesday.

Eventually, temperatures cool a bit after Tuesday, although remain a few degrees above the normal high for this time of year. Overall, low impacts from the weather for the next few days with respect to temperatures. The extreme forecast index(EFI) has some values around 0.8 here on Tuesday, although that just hints at usually warm temperatures, nothing extreme for this time of year. Lows are well into the 50's, so heat risk is still very low.

AVIATION

00Z TAFS

Conditions are mainly VFR with local MVFR ceilings in the Coquille and Umpqua valleys as well as east of the Cascades in showers. Areas of IFR/MVFR are expected to develop overnight along the coast and in the Coquille and Umpqua Valleys, including at North Bend (KOTH) and Roseburg (RBG). These conditions will lift to VFR around 15-18z Saturday morning. At Medford (MFR) a cloud deck of around 4kft will break up and clear around 17-19z. Saturday afternoon, expect VFR areawide with gusty north winds along the coast.

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Friday, May 29, 2026

North winds are increasing this afternoon and evening with seas becoming high and steep through the weekend. Southern waters will have these conditions first before expanding to all waters Sunday. South waters could have very steep seas Sunday as well, and a Hazardous Seas Watch has been issued. Conditions will remain hazardous to small craft during this time.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.