textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION and MARINE Discussions

AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs

Generally low end VFR conditions prevail across the region this morning, with local areas of IFR/LIFR including here in the Rogue Valley. The lower conditions are expected to improve to VFR by 19-20z, but widespread terrain obscurations will persist through the TAF period. A weak front will push on shore this afternoon, bringing another round of gusty winds to the region. Low end VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail west of the Cascades with this front, with VFR conditions expected elsewhere. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 900 AM PST Monday, December 22, 2025

Gusty south to southwest winds will persist today along with steep to very steep seas for all areas. Isolated gale force gusts are possible north of Cape Blanco this afternoon. Conditions gradually improve tonight and Tuesday. Then a strong low pressure will move south to north right along the Oregon Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This could bring a quick round of strong gales, possibly reaching storm force, along with very steep and chaotic seas. Another round of gales with very steep seas is possible Thursday into Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 349 AM PST Mon Dec 22 2025/

DISCUSSION...Light showers linger over coastal areas, the Cascades, and Modoc County early this morning. Inland activity should decrease through the day, while light showers may continue along the coast. Breezy winds continue over east side terrain, but are safely out of hazardous ranges. Overall, today offers a short break before activity is expected to resume in the middle of the week.

An upper trough remaining in place over the Pacific Ocean will keep southerly or southwesterly flow aloft. This flow looks to guide a pair of surface lows towards the area. The first low will bring showers to Siskiyou and Modoc counties on Tuesday morning with more widespread activity continuing into Wednesday morning. The highest precipitation amounts are forecast to be in the Shasta Valley region (Dunsmuir, Mount Shasta City, Weed, McCloud) where 2 to 4 inches of precipitation is expected in this timeframe. Other parts of Siskiyou county as well as Coos and Curry counties could see 1 to 2 inches of precipitation. Initial Tuesday morning snow levels of 4000-5000 feet may allow for light snow showers of parts of Highways 89 and 97. In western Siskiyou County, Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna could get 2 to 6 inches of snowfall. Cascades passes could also see 2 to 6 inches of snowfall. For these areas, the rise in snow levels may turn snow to rain or rain/snow mixes. This shift may bring locally slippery conditions. Terrain in Siskiyou County could see 6 to 12 inches of snowfall, with 18 to 24 inches possible over higher peaks and ridgelines.

For this first surface low, gusty winds will also be a consideration over terrain especially east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph are in the forecast for these areas. A High Wind Watch covers a generalized area where these high winds are possible, with additional guidance likely to narrow down areas where High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories will be needed.

A second surface low would affect the area from late Wednesday into early Friday. The path of this system has varied in guidance, making high confidence in its impacts difficult to find, but a general picture is building. With southerly flow continuing, western Siskiyou County and the Mount Shasta region as well as Curry County and the Cascades would remain areas of concern. Current guidance does not show the same wind concerns as the first system, but a forecast drop in snow levels late Thursday into early Friday could make snowfall on Interstate 5 between Weed and Dunsmuir, along Highway 89, Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna, and through the Cascades a concern. Given the holiday, this is obviously an important period. As confidence grows in the path of this second surface low, expected impacts can be fully addressed.

Considering hydrologic concerns, river rises are expected but a current absence of snowpack is helping to reduce immediate river flooding concerns. Continuing precipitation over western Siskiyou COunty may case rock slides in areas with unstable surface conditions. And localized small stream floods or nuisance ponding in areas with poor drainage will be possible in areas with moderate to heavy precipitation.

Long-term deterministic imagery shows the upper trough breaking down late Friday, with a weak ridge allowing for a break in activity through the weekend and into early next week. Meteogram guidance indicates activity resuming towards midweek of late December into early January, but the signals are relatively scattered and coarse at this point. -TAD

AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs...Scattered showers continue over areas west of the Cascades as well as over Modoc County. Showers should continue to decrease over inland areas through the day, but light showers may continue over coastal areas. Fog has brought IFR/LIFR visibilities Medford terminal and will stick around through the early morning but should clear out before the afternoon. VFR levels are expected across the area today, with weak signals for fog in the Umpqua Valley and possibly returning to the Rogue Valley later tonight into early Tuesday morning. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for ORZ029>031.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for CAZ080-082>085.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for CAZ081-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-370.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ356-376.