textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures remain 15 to 25 degrees below normal for today, with gradual warming through the weekend and into early next week.

* Showers will continue through Monday as an upper level low remains overhead, with a slight chance of thunderstorms each afternoon.

* More seasonable September weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

DISCUSSION

An area of showers remains streaming from the southwest near Mount Shasta to the northeast through Summer Lake. This area of showers will very slowly progress east through this evening. Meanwhile, showers along the coast will continue and push to the east, moving inland through this evening as the upper level low makes its move onshore. In other words, this very November- like wet and cool weather will continue into tomorrow.

We're watching some thunderstorms along the coast today as well. They should weaken as they move onshore, but there is also a relatively low 10 percent chance that the afternoon sun could get some heating in under this cooler airmass,creating some potential instability inland this late afternoon and early evening.

The bulk of the rain will fall east of the Cascades through the day and this is an unusually large amount of rain in the ensemble forecast for this time of year. This is showing up in the extreme forecast index(EFI) product again with EFI values around 0.8 to 0.9 and some 0.95 over the Warners with a shift of tails of 2 over south central Oregon. This could be due some embedded convective elements in some ensemble members. There are no 2026 burnscars over the Warner Mountains, or we would go with a flash flood watch. However, this should be beneficial rain for locations east of the Cascades.

It's pretty much rinse and repeat from Friday into Monday as the low wobbles around the Pacific Northwest keeping shower chances going with some low thunderstorm probabilities. However, QPF values will be lower compared to what was observed Wednesday and what is still left to observe through today, Thursday. The one thing does change are temperatures gradually warming up into the weekend as more sun reaches the ground in between the showers.

By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, things will continue to warm up and return to climatological normals for mid September. The ensemble forecasts hint at another system arriving around Friday. It actually looks like its the remnants of hurricane Marie currently spinning off the coast of Mexico at the moment. About 50% of the members show low amounts of QPF hitting us while the other 50% and dry. So still a lot to get sorted over the next few days and it's looking drier than what we went through on Wednesday.

AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs

While generally VFR levels are expected under clear skies or high ceilings, periods of lower levels are possible under ongoing scattered showers. The most organized precipitation is a band of showers from eastern Siskiyou County into areas east of the Cascades. This band is currently bringing IFR visibilities to the Klamath Falls terminal, so lower levels are possible as this band moves eastward. Additionally, west side showers may include embedded thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Chances for thunderstorm activity decrease into the evening. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Thursday, September 3, 2026

Gusty south winds and steep seas will continue through tonight while a surface low meanders just offshore of southern Oregon. This will also produce an ongoing slight chance of stronger showers or even thunderstorms over the coastal waters through this evening, which in turn could produce short periods of gale force gusts or even waterspouts. Winds will diminish Friday as the low slides northeast and moves onshore. Winds will shift to the north Saturday morning, but remain light with relatively calm seas through the weekend and into early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.