textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...13/12Z TAFs

MVFR stratus is impacting most areas along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin this morning, including at North Bend and Roseburg. Some has bled into the Illinois and Rogue valleys this morning with some also showing up in the lower Klamath river and Scott valleys in northern California. Some of this stratus is causing areas of higher terrain to be obscured west of the Cascades. East of the Cascades and across the rest of NorCal, most areas are VFR with just some high cirrus, but patchy fog is present in the Klamath and Goose basins around Klamath Falls and Lakeview. Expect lower conditions to lift to VFR today, but a front will press into the area this afternoon and tonight. This will bring more MVFR ceilings, terrain obscuration and light rain to the coast and N&W sections, while areas farther inland remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 304 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026/

SYNOPSIS...Mild weather the past few days will gradually give way to a colder, stormier pattern this weekend into next week with multiple opportunities for rain and mountain snow and even some potential for low elevation snow at times. While there will be winter weather impacts and hazards, this precipitation is needed since we are way behind on winter snow pack and many SW Oregon locations are experiencing below normal precip for the water year so far.

DISCUSSION...The upper ridge that brought the springlike weather the last couple of days will shift eastward into the Great Basin today. This will allow an upper trough over the NE Pacific to drop southward with a frontal system pushing onshore into the PacNW. Precip chances remain mostly to the N&W of our CWA today, but rain chances do increase along the coast and NW Douglas County this afternoon (~60% chance). Most areas though still end up with a dry Friday. Minor amounts (only up to a few hundredths) are possible along the coast from around Cape Blanco north to Reedsport. Temperatures will be seasonable west of the Cascades (a few degrees either side of normal) and still several degrees above normal in NorCal and over the East Side where there's a bit more sunshine.

As energy digs into an evolving long wave trough offshore, the front will stall west of the Cascades tonight into Saturday. Rain chances remain highest north and west of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, where rain's a near certainty (80-100%), but diminish to 30-50% around Medford/Ashland and even lower than that for points south and east. Rain amounts are a bit tricky since the front will be weakening in response to the energy digging offshore and the development of low pressure off the NorCal coast. 0.25-0.50" seems like the most likely amount, with up to around 1.00" (coastal areas) where rain is most persistent through Saturday evening. But here in Medford/Ashland, only a hundredth or two is currently forecast. The low spinning up offshore will cause the front to lift back to the north as a warm front late Saturday and Saturday night. This should maintain snow levels around or above 4500 feet through Sunday. Southerly flow will increase Saturday into Sunday and this will focus precipitation closer to the low along the coast and into the usual areas of NorCal, in western Siskiyou County and the upslope region around Mt. Shasta. Breezy southerly winds will pick up in the Shasta Valley Saturday and continue into Sunday. Mid-level flow and pressure gradients at this time don't quite support wind advisory levels, though gusts to 40 mph are possible.

Sunday night into Monday, additional energy will drop in from the NE Pacific and this will send the low off the NorCal coast onshore around San Francisco Bay. The heaviest precipitation will be focused to our south (and the Sierra Nevada will likely get slammed with heavy snow), but a corridor of moderate to occasionally heavy upslope precipitation will remain directed into portions of NorCal, and especially the Mt. Shasta region. We'll be considering Winter Storm Watches for portions of northern California during this time period (again for elevations mostly above 4500 feet. Lighter snow will fall to the north over the mountains (including the Cascades), but amounts look light at this time.

A deep/cold upper low will then move southward (just off the WA/OR coast) Monday night into Tuesday. Some of that cold air will move in over SW Oregon and this will bring about more widespread impactful winter weather with snow levels dropping to around 2000 feet (maybe even 1500 feet or so) for the usual spots west of the Cascades (Hayes Hill/Camas Mt). Anytime we get an air mass this cold, there is potential for snow at the valley floors and since the cold air mass will hang around for a while (Tue-Fri), there will be multiple opportunities. A lot will depend on timing of precip and just how sustained it is. And, given the mild pattern we've been in for the last month, the ground is quite warm (with daffodils already blooming in some places!). Nighttime and morning hours will be the most likely times for accumulation at the lower elevations, but at this range, that'll be difficult to pin down. So, we advise to keep checking back for updates.

Here are some probabilities of snow from the latest NBM for early to mid next week: from Monday 4pm through Wednesday 4pm, there is a high chance (60-95%) for snowfall of 6 inches or greater for mountains above 4000 feet from the Cascades west and in Mount Shasta City and surrounding area. The NBM also supports a high chance (60-80%) for snowfall amounts of 12 inches or more in higher elevations (above 4500 ft) in the Cascades and mountains in western and southern Siskiyou County. There is a medium chance (40-60%) for up to 12 inches of snow in the Mount Shasta City area during this period. As the upper trough moves inland Monday night into Tuesday, there is potential for light to moderate snow down to lower passes. The NBM supports a 40-60% chance for an inch or more of snow across lower passes on I-5 near Canyon Mountain and Sexton Summit and a 40-50% chance for an inch or more of snow at Hayes Hill, Camas Mountain, in the southern Illinois Valley, for areas in and around Ashland, and for portions of the lower Klamath River valley in western Siskiyou County. Tuesday night into Wednesday snow levels may drop even lower, down as low as 1000-1500 ft with a 10-20% chance for light snowfall down to lower valleys such as Medford, Grants Pass and Canyonville.

AVIATION...13/06Z TAFs...Marine stratus is moving inland to start the TAF period, bringing MVFR levels to North Bend and other coastal areas. MVFR levels are also expected at Roseburg as this layer fills the Umpqua Valley. This layer as well as other mid to high level clouds looks to reduce the chances of deep persistent fog, but signals for patchy fog remain in guidance for these three terminals. For North Bend and Roseburg, levels could fluctuate between VFR and MVFR under this layer while other areas are expected to remain at VFR.

An approaching front is expected to bring rainfall to coastal areas. This front may help lift coastal ceilings to VFR heights in this TAF period, but rain showers can bring locally lower ceilings and visibilities as well as obscure elevated terrain. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Friday, February 13, 2026... Seas will continue to increase today as a low off the British Columbia coastline sends a swell into our waters. The swell will peak at around 13 to 14 feet to 14 to 16 seconds. These conditions will be hazardous to small craft through Saturday morning. Winds don't pick up significantly as this front eventually stalls in the outer waters.

A weak low will likely develop in our waters late Saturday night into Sunday bringing a quick shot of southerly winds. Overall, unsettled weather will persist this weekend with conditions that are hazardous to small craft. Conditions are likely to improve late Sunday into Monday. But, seas then build again and are likely to become high and steep on Tuesday.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 300 AM PST Friday, February 13, 2026...Building west to northwest long period swell will produce a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast through this afternoon.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther up beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the cold open waters of the Pacific Ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement until noon PST today for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement until noon PST today for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.