textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

KEY POINTS...

* Low impact weather expected through the 4th of July holiday.

* Temperatures trend warmer today into the weekend, peaking around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

* No precipitation in the forecast through Saturday.

* Sunday/Monday - Slight chance thunderstorms (10-15%) across northern California and east of the Cascades, most likely across northern Klamath and Lake Counties. Gusty outflows are possible with any thunderstorms that develop.

* There is also a very low (5%) chance for overnight/morning isolated thunderstorms in Lake and Modoc counties Sunday night and Monday morning.

* Wednesday - a dry front will bring the potential for increased fire weather concerns due gusty winds/low RH east of Cascades.

This morning, low clouds and patchy fog are present along the coast. These clouds will clear in the late morning and early afternoon. Inland areas are expected to see dry weather, breezy afternoon winds and above normal temperatures today.

Conditions trend warmer Saturday and Sunday as a high pressure ridge builds over the western US with the ridge axis centered east of the area. Meanwhile, to the northwest an upper trough will set up off the coast on Sunday as a low near the coast of British Columbia. Well to the south, energy and moisture from the Pacific will move into southern California on Sunday, and slowly advect northward late Sunday into Monday. Hotter temperatures are expected through the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s for valley east of the Cascades and in the lower to mid 90s for most valleys west of the Cascades. Expect continued breezy to locally gusty winds in the late afternoons and early evenings.

Late Sunday into Monday, the trough off the coast will result in south to southwest flow aloft and allow some mid level moisture to advect into the region as well as bring weak disturbances aloft. Models and ensembles are showing more favorable conditions for isolated thunderstorms to develop late Sunday afternoon and evening and moreso, on Monday. The slight chances (15%) for isolated thunderstorms or showers on Sunday are mainly across mountains east of the Cascades, such as near Summer Rim. However, there is a broader area of low (10%) chance for thunderstorms across other areas east of the Cascades and across Northern California.

Then, Sunday night into Monday, additional moisture moves up from the south. This combined with weak instability and disturbances aloft is expected to bring additional slight chances (15%) for thunderstorms, mainly across northeast Klamath, Lake and far eastern Modoc counties. However, a low chance (10%) extends across other east side areas and across northern California zones. There is also a very low chance (5%) for overnight/morning isolated, elevated thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday morning southerly moisture moves up into far eastern portions of the CWA, mainly Lake and Modoc counties. Gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms that develop Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday, the trough begins to nudge inland and expect more stable conditions and dry weather.

Afternoon/early evening breezy to gusty winds are likely Sunday through Tuesday across inland areas. This combined with low daytime humidities may bring enhanced fire weather concerns. Currently, the forecast indicates winds and humidities remain below critical thresholds though, but we will continue to monitor this.

The upper trough is expected to gradually move inland over the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will allow a weak front to move across the area on Wednesday and bring slightly cooler temperatures as well as a marine push along the coast and into the Umpqua. Additionally, there is a potential for gusty westerly to northwesterly winds across inland areas on Wednesday afternoon. These winds may combine with low humidities and result in a potential for enhanced or critical fire weather conditions, mainly east of the Cascades. We will continue to monitor this pattern with additional model runs.

AVIATION...03/12Z TAFs

A solid marine layer will persist through late this morning, with IFR and LIFR ceilings from around Cape Blanco northward, including at North Bend. These clouds have spread into the Coquille and to near Elkton, but are expected to remain northwest of Roseburg. These ceilings will lift to MVFR and probably clear to VFR 18-20Z as gusty N winds develop this afternoon. The remainder of the area will be VFR through the TAF period with typical diurnal late afternoon/early evening breezes.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Friday, July 3, 2026

Gusty north winds will continue through the holiday weekend, with the strongest winds south of Cape Blanco. A Small Craft Advisory covers ongoing steep seas south of Cape Blanco into early Saturday afternoon.

On Saturday afternoon, an increase in wind speeds will spread steep seas north of Cape Blanco. To the south, very steep and hazardous seas look to be possible south of Gold Beach from Saturday afternoon into early Monday morning. Current forecasts show localized gale gusts may be possible from Port Orford southward on Saturday afternoon and evening. We have added a hazardous seas watch for areas from Port Orford southward given the potential for very steep seas and localized gales.

Winds will gradually ease on Monday. Then, steep westerly swell may arrive in the middle of the week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for PZZ356-376.