textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* High impact marine weather through this weekend

* Inland, low to moderate impacts from strong winds and rainfall, with strongest winds late this evening through Friday afternoon; impacts from snow occur mainly above 5000 feet

* Active weather likely to continue through the weekend and early next week

DISCUSSION

A long wave trough continues to advance over the eastern Pacific towards the western CONUS today. The trough axis extends down from the Gulf of Alaska along/near the 140W south to about the 30N parallel. The southern extent of this trough will split off tomorrow as it heads towards southern California. The northern extent will become a closed low and deepen as it heads towards the PacNW Fri/Sat and will be responsible for much of our active weather through Saturday. Then another low develops behind this first closed low and heads into British Columbia to continue impacts through the weekend with a majority of these impacts near the coast. Two fronts, one tonight into Friday, and another Saturday night into Sunday will cause largely beneficial precipitation area wide with the main weather risk being from strong, gusty southerly winds.

The strongest wind speeds will likely be between Coos Bay and Pistol River Friday morning. Below are some probabilities for areas along/near the coast where we will likely see the strongest gusts.

* 50 mph or greater: 70% to 95% * 55 mph or greater: 60% to 90% * 60 mph or greater: 50% to 75% * 65 mph or greater: 10% to 30%

We have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for the coast for this cycle as confidence is high in strong winds at the beaches and especially the headlands. Over the interior west side, while some of the higher terrain could see warning level gusts (~60 mph), we have cancelled the High Wind Watch for zones 23 and zone 24 as the main populated areas there won't get winds that strong. We still may issue a last minute wind advisory though if confidence increases. The take away is that strong to very strong wind gusts are expected along the coast Friday morning which can lead to downed tress, power outages, as well as difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles. Any unsecured or loose outdoor objects will likely get blown around or damaged.

Farther inland, the Shasta Valley will have advisory level winds today (~50 mph gusts), then warning level gusts (~70 mph) tonight through early Friday afternoon. We have a wind advisory and High Wind Warning there. Eastside areas tonight through Friday afternoon/early evening will have gusty south wing as well with a Wind Advisory (gusts around 45 to 55 mph, highest along Highway 31 at Summer Lake). We may even see some advisory winds here in the Rogue Valley, but these should be mostly to the south of Medford (in the Phoenix/Talent/Ashland areas).

Precipitation chances will start tonight/Fri morning and continue through the weekend. There will be breaks as we are not expecting a continuous onslaught of rainfall. Rainfall amounts will be highest along and near the coast. Curry County, in typical fashion, will see the higher rainfall rates and amounts. That said, not expecting much in the real of impacts for rainfall, but nuisance type flooding with ponding on roadways will lead to slippery roads and longer driving times. In particular, driving conditions for the mornings of both Friday and Sunday may involve the most nuisance for drivers. First front brings mostly beneficial rain amounts of 1-3 inches along the coast, 0.50-1.00 for the west side (a little lower in the downslope valleys) and 0.25-0.50 over the east side. Second front brings similar, but slightly lower amounts.

Snowfall will be confined to areas above 5000 ft, and we are not expecting any noteworthy accumulations, but highways around Diamond Lake, Crater Lake, and Lake of the Woods could be the areas to watch for light amounts (Trace-1.0") of snowfall. This may lead to slippery roads and longer drive times Friday afternoon through Monday morning.

After a short break early next week, the next frontal system looks to arrive at the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AVIATION...12/06Z TAFs

High clouds will limit the development of stratus overnight. But, patchy IFR and LIFR is expected at the coast overnight into Thursday morning, as well as in the valleys of southwest Oregon. This includes Roseburg and Medford. Southerly winds will increase on Thursday morning with mixing out of any stratus. But, increasing southerly winds will produce areas of low level wind shear from Thursday morning through Thursday night into Friday morning.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Thursday, November 12, 2026

South winds will increase today maintaining steep, hazardous seas across all waters. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate later today into Friday as a strong front moves in, bringing strong gales (possibly storm force gusts) and very high and very steep seas. Yet another major long-period swell will move into the waters following this front later Friday. It is expected to peak Friday night with wave heights in the coastal waters forecast to reach 25 to 30 feet with a period of 19 seconds. Another front is expected Saturday into Sunday, and while it will be somewhat weaker than the first front, another round of gales looks likely with this system. Additionally, another significant long period swell will follow that front. Again, they'll likely not be quite as high as the first front, but expect very high/steep, and very hazardous (20-25 feet) sea conditions to persist through the weekend and into early next week. Mariners are urged to remain in port during this period of extremely dangerous weather, secure vessels and continue to monitor forecasts for updates. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PST Thursday, November 12, 2026

Dangerous conditions are expected along area beaches Friday through the weekend. A strong cold front will move through tonight into Friday followed by a major, long period westerly swell. Ocean swells will rise dramatically and peak at 25 to 30 feet, causing breaking waves in the surf zone of 30 to 35 feet Friday night into Saturday morning. This will cause exceptionally high and dangerous surf conditions, with completely inundated beaches, and potential dune overwash and erosion. Surf heights may lower somewhat Saturday night, but another heavy long period swell is anticipated behind a second front Sunday. Breakers in the surf zone could reach 25-30 feet again and persist Sunday night into Monday. Those with coastal and marine interests should stay up to date with the latest forecasts as this dangerous surf event could impact coastal infrastructure. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ026-029>031.

High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.

High Surf Warning from 10 AM Friday to 10 PM PST Saturday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ081-084-085.

High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Friday for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.