textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...08/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail for most areas, aside IFR conditions persist along the coast and over the marine waters from Port Orford southward. Gusty winds will continue through around sunset, then ease overnight. A weak and dry front passes through the region late tonight into early Friday, bringing increasing mid and high level cloud cover. This will bring increasing IFR/MVFR coverage in marine stratus along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. There could be some MVFR ceilings that bank up against the Siskiyous/Cascades in portions of Jackson County, though VFR conditions should prevail at the Medford terminal.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 240 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026/

DISCUSSION...

Coastal stratus is covering sections of Curry County with some fair weather cumulus building over Modoc County this afternoon. We're also watching a few prescribed burns produce smoke in western Jackson County and northern Klamath county, although it looks like those are winding down at this time. High pressure remains in control as temperatures are trending roughly the same as 24 hours ago or a few degrees warmer.

By tonight, the upper level ridge will start to break down ahead of an approaching short wave. This wave will hit the coast around sunrise with some stronger westerly flow and coastal stratus covering the coast. We'll also see some dense high clouds push through the forecast area Friday morning. All of this should result in slightly cooler temperatures, although still warmer than normal for this time of year.

High pressure will build again Saturday as the short wave departs the region and temperatures will rise again as a result. A thermal trough should also be present along the Oregon coastline. Temperatures along the coast will be in the lower 70's under that thermal trough with highs in the upper to mid 80's farther inland.

We'll cool back down on Sunday before temperatures warm up again on Monday. It looks like the GFS is forecasting a dry cold front stalling out in Central Oregon and the latest WPC surface front forecast agree with us in that assessment. The GFS 1000-500 mb layer RH looks rather dry around Bend Monday afternoon and evening, which led us to thing something is there.

We'll see another thermal trough likely develop over the Oregon coast as high pressure builds farther to the east and broad east flow develops over southern Oregon and northern California. East flow will be light, but strong enough to warm push Medford to 90 degrees in the latest NBM forecast, which still might be a few degrees to low.

Mount Shasta City is currently a few degrees under the record high on Monday and Tuesday, although they could challenge the record high temperatures on Tuesday the 12th and 13th.

Finally, the 12Z ECMWF ensemble is showing hints of precipitation Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Some models(~20%) are bringing what looks like thunderstorms developing over southern Oregon and northern California. Others are showing a west to east trough progression, which might result in a cooler showery type of rain, mostly in northern Oregon. In any case, it will be something to watch in future forecast runs.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, May 7, 2026...Below advisory seas look to continue through the week and into the weekend. Northerly winds and westerly swell increase slightly on Saturday, making areas of steep seas possible south of Cape Blanco possible. Areas of steep seas are more likely to develop south of Cape Blanco by Sunday evening. Westerly swell eases slightly on Monday but northerly winds increase enough to bring steep seas to all area waters. Wind-built steep seas may continue into the middle of next week. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.