textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather and slightly above normal (5-10 degrees) temperatures expected today.

* Near or slightly above normal temperatures expected for much of the week.

* Low chances (5-15%) for rain expected on Monday from the coast to the Cascades as a low shifts south offshore.

* Chances for rain showers increase Wednesday and Thursday for areas from the Cascades east and across Northern California.

DISCUSSION

Mild and dry weather is expected today. Areas of morning low clouds are expected along the coast, in the Umpqua, and in the Grants Pass area. High temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Tonight and Monday, a low pressure system moves shifts southward off the coast. However, models continue to show that this low will remain well offshore and will move south of the area on Tuesday, before gradually moving inland late Wednesday over southern California as a cut off low. As it moves inland Wednesday night and Thursday, it will gradually track northeastward into Nevada.

As the low nears the area but remains offshore on Monday, there are only very low chances (10-15%) for light rain (generally amounts of a trace to less than 0.10 inches), mainly along the coast and inland along and near the Cascades, Siskiyous and mountains in western Siskiyou. Otherwise, expect dry but cooler (near normal) conditions on Monday.

As the low moves inland to the south and southeast, models and ensembles are showing wrap around moisture and showers developing across northern California and from the Cascades eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. The National Blend of Models has trended higher with precipitation chances (40-70%) in Modoc and southern Lake counties. For other areas, from Cascades east and into Siskiyou County, expect lower chances (15-40%) for light showers. Current models also indicate weak instability with a low chance (10-15%) for thunderstorms in Modoc on Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts are likely to be light (0.10 inches or less) except in the Modoc and southern Lake counties where rainfall amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 inches are possible Wednesday and Thursday.

Tuesday through late in the week, temperatures will be mild with highs near to slightly above normal.

AVIATION...18/12Z TAFs

Areas of fog are present along the coast this morning with lifting and clearing to VFR later in the morning (16-18z). Inland, areas of MVFR ceilings are present in the Umpqua, Grants Pass area and Illinois Valley. These conditions are expected to gradually lift and clear in the late morning and early afternoon (18-20z). An approaching low pressure system has additional chances to bring lower ceilings to the Oregon coast towards the end of the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Sunday, October 18, 2026

A combination of westerly swell and north winds is resulting in steep seas for most the waters, with very steep seas south of Gold Beach. Seas are expected to briefly lower Sunday evening and night. Then, Monday evening and night, west swell will likely build steep to locally, very steep seas, with these conditions continuing into Tuesday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ376.