textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation and marine discussions.

AVIATION...24/06Z TAFs

Nighttime microphysics RGB satellite imagery is showing MVFR (local IFR) ceilings pressing southward into northern Klamath and Lake counties from Chemult and Crescent across much of the Christmas Valley to Alkali Lake and Valley Falls with patchier clouds over the Warners east of the Lakeview. VFR prevails most everywhere else this evening with a drier air mass moving in aloft. This will result in VFR prevailing for North Bend, Medford and Klamath Falls.

However, the most recent frames of the satellite show some fog developing in the Umpqua Basin. So, even with the expected drying of the air mass tonight, the low levels will stay moist in Roseburg and we'll probably see fog reform there in the next few hours. Expect areas of LIFR fog/low clouds to last into the morning hours before lifting to VFR late morning. These conditions could also impact areas around Grants Pass and the Illinois Valley toward morning.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Friday, January 23, 2026

North winds will remain near a peak of strength into Saturday morning, with seas steep and hazardous to small craft, especially beyond 10 nm from shore. Winds will gradually diminish and shift to the northeast on Saturday, with steep seas becoming dominated by a moderate west swell. Winds will remain strongest in the outer waters. Conditions are expected to improve early next week. A more active pattern is expected to begin Tuesday afternoon, with increasing southerly winds (approaching advisory strength in the outer waters).

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 348 PM PST Fri Jan 23 2026/

DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...24/00Z TAFs...VFR prevails in most areas this afternoon with patchy clouds banked up against the NE slopes of the Medicine Lake area, Winter Rim and the Warner Mtns.

A drier air mass aloft is moving in from the north, and with some offshore flow developing, this will result in VFR prevailing for most TAF sites tonight into Saturday, including at North Bend, Medford and Klamath Falls.

However, dewpoint depressions this afternoon are only 8F at Roseburg. So, even with some expected drying of the air mass tonight, the low levels will stay moist and it wouldn't take much for fog to reform in the Umpqua Basin. Statistical guidance and soundings are showing potential for some LIFR fog/low cloud developing there around ~08Z and lasting into the early morning hours before lifting to VFR late morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 137 PM PST Fri Jan 23 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...

Key Points:

* Widespread precipitation-free conditions through early next week - Morning fog may becoming less prevalent the next couple days

* Cold airmass this weekend - Freeze warning in effect for our northern coastal areas - Cold weather advisory in effect for the valleys of Douglas Co. - May need to expand cold weather advisories the next morning

Further Details:

Fog and freezing fog has been the main weather impact lately along with the stable airmass, but we may see the fog chances less common this weekend and we see better atmospheric mixing. While some areas may still see fog/freezing fog, areas in and around Douglas County may get some relief tonight. This is part of the reason for the cold weather advisory as radiational cooling may be stronger without the low clouds/fog. However, this is also part of the uncertainty for the cold temperatures because if the fog forms again, we may not get as cold tonight. In other words, some uncertainty does exists for tonight low temperatures and the fog (or lack thereof) will be the primary driver. Probabilities from ensemble data do indicate there is a lesser chance for fog tonight across Douglas County. Currently there is about a 20% chance for visibilities less than half a mile. The next morning will be colder for some areas across northern California, and we may meet criteria (6 - 15 degrees) for western parts of Siskiyou County. This is different than Douglas County where we only need to be 16 to 25 degrees. This would primarily impact both Shasta and Scott valley Sunday morning. In similar fashion we may need another freeze warning for northern coastal areas due to temperatures below freezing once again tonight.

Looking ahead, the next reasonable chance for widespread precipitation may come middle of next week. The trend lately has been for dry conditions to prevail, even as chances come into the extended only to disappear once we get closer in time. This is leading to some uncertainty for next week. Ensemble data is indicating the probability for 0.10"/6 hrs is around 10-25 percent starting Tuesday night. These chances are for westside areas with coastal areas being on the higher end. These probabilities are less than they were 24 hours ago.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

Satellite and observations show passing mid-/high clouds east of the Cascades with lingering low clouds (IFR/LIFR ceilings) in the Umpqua Basin at Roseburg and in the western Rogue Valley near Grants Pass. Medford has VFR conditions with 4kft-06kft ceilings.

The system arriving from the north could allow for just enough mixing today to improve conditions to VFR at the locations with low clouds/fog right now. This is forecast to clear into this afternoon.

The next area of concern will be low clouds/fog tonight, especially for west side valleys. This TAF cycle includes MVFR visibility for the Roseburg area between 05Z-14Z, but there is a lower confidence for fog development. However, that will mean it will be a cold night ahead with temperatures falling to the 20s west of the Cascades. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period for the other TAF sites, including Medford, as well.

-9

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Friday, January 23, 2026... North winds have been increasing today. Seas are steep and hazardous to small craft south of Cape Blanco, especially beyond 10 nm from shore. Winds will gradually diminish and shift to the northeast, but also spread to areas north of the Cape on Saturday. Conditions are expected to improve early next week. A more active pattern is expected to follow later next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM PST Saturday for ORZ021.

Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM PST Saturday for ORZ023.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.