textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Low pressure dominates weather pattern this week, maintaining near normal/seasonable temperatures. Today will be the warmest day of forecast period.

* Wrap around moisture expected to bring wetting rainfall and slight chance thunderstorms east of the Cascades later today into Thurs; 0.25"-0.50" for Modoc/Lake Counties, 0.10"-0.25" for remainder of East Side to the Cascades. Possibly a few hundreths as far west as Medford/Grants Pass/Roseburg.

* Drier conditions now look more likely for the weekend (40% -> now 60%); 20-30% chances for light precipitation Sun/Mon primarily west of Cascades (last measurable rainfall for West Side Valleys was Sept 24th/25).

* Near to slightly above normal temperatures for the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION...21/12Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with mid and high level clouds over the region. The exception will be for areas of LIFR conditions in fog in the Coquille Basin that could impact North Bend at times through around 16-18z this morning. The marine layer likely returns to the coast north of Cape Blanco this evening, bringing the return of LIFR/IFR conditions around 03z.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected south of the OR/CA border today. Precipitation coverage will increase from southeast to northwest after 09z/Thursday and continue through Thursday morning. Expect lowering ceilings and increasing terrain obscurations, but with conditions expected to remain VFR for terminals east of the Coastal Range.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 301 AM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026/

DISCUSSION...Upper level low pressure lingers off the California Coast this morning. High level clouds associated with this low pressure continue to stream into the region, and a band of showers is bringing some light rain to portions of southern Siskiyou County and areas southward. Dry conditions are expected for most of the region today with showers increasing south of the OR/CA border this afternoon and evening. South to southeast flow aloft will persist today, gradually turning more easterly as low pressure moves inland later today into Thursday. Afternoon temperatures trend warmer today compared to recent days, especially west of the Cascades where highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s-low 80s. Guidance was a bit ambitious in the extent of high temperatures for yesterday, likely not accounting for the extensive high level cloud cover. High clouds should thin out a bit more today, and when combined with some downsloping flow from the Cascades, it's reasonable to think high temperatures could get that warm today.

As low pressure moves inland into California today, showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across Siskiyou/Modoc Counties. The storm is environment is fairly marginal in terms of convective development, so gusty outflows (25-35 mph) will be the main concern with any storms today. Overnight into Thursday, wrap around moisture will bring a more widespread potential for precipitation. The highest chances for precipitation (50-80% chance) continues to be focused across eastern Siskiyou/Klamath Counties and much of Modoc/Lake County. 24-hour rainfall amounts (11 pm Wed - 11 pm Thurs) in these areas could reach between 0.25"-0.50", with the higher end amounts most likely in favored upslope areas of the Warners. Precipitation chances have actually increased for areas farther west, with 50-80% chances reaching to the Cascades and even 20-50% chances reaching the West Side Valleys for a period Thursday morning (between 5am - 11am). Precipitation amounts west of the Cascades will still be fairly light, likely only a few hundreths at best. This event/pattern still favors the higher precipitation chances/amounts for northern California/East Side.

Precipitation chances drop off quickly from west to east as the day progresses Thursday, with showers lingering across the East Side into Thursday evening before this system finally gets swept eastward by a kicker trough from the northwest. Temperatures trend cooler on Thursday and Friday compared to today, hovering near normal Thursday, then 5-10 degrees below normal on Friday. The equates to mid 60s for the West Side, mid 50s East.

Dry conditions return on Friday as high pressure approaches the West Coast. Friday night into Saturday is when model guidance diverges on the overall pattern progression. Now the differences arise from whether energy coming out of the Gulf of Alaska is strong enough to either dampen the ridge and allow a deeper trough to move into the Pacific Northwest (EC suite) or pass over the top of the ridge and bring more of an inside slider scenario (GEFS suite). Yet again, there's been an increase in the amount of model solutions that want to maintain the drier pattern for the weekend, increasing from 40% of solutions to now 60%. There's still a respectable amount of the EC members, however, that bring some precipitation chances to the valleys west of the Cascades, but now hold off until Sun/Mon. The GEFS suite, on the other hand, is markedly dry for the weekend and even through the following week. Regardless, both model suites generally agree that temperatures this weekend into early next week will hover near to slightly above normal.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Wednesday, October 21, 2026...Sub- advisory conditions are expected for much of the day today with northerly winds and swell dominated seas. Conditions worsen this afternoon and evening as north winds increase and steep seas develop south of Cape Blanco. A thermal trough is expected Thursday into Friday, with advisory level north winds spreading north of Cape Blanco and steep seas expected for most areas into early Friday. Conditions improve north of Cape Blanco on Friday as north winds ease, with further improvement expected over the weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.