textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Low impact weather expected this week.

* Temperatures return to seasonable values today, persisting through the end of the week and possibly trending above normal for the weekend.

* Showers/thunderstorms possible Wednesday/Thursday, primarily east of the Coast Range.

DISCUSSION

After a chilly start to the day for areas east of the Cascades and a cloudy start to the day for areas west of the Cascades, clear skies and seasonable temperatures are underway this afternoon as low pressure from the weekend has moved off to the east. A broad trough aloft lingers over the Pacific Northwest and a thermal trough is in place along the coast at the surface. Not much change in the pattern is expected through Tuesday, and this will maintain breezy north through northeast winds across the region. High temperatures will return to seasonable values today and continue through much of the week...look for highs in the low-mid 80s for the West Side and low-mid 70s for the East Side. Low temperatures will also moderate tonight and through the week, with any chances for frost/freeze being confined to the typically cold areas of northern Klamath/Lake Counties.

The pattern changes Wednesday as another upper level low slides down the back side of high pressure over the eastern Pacific. This low pressure isn't as deep as recent ones, so we won't experience quite the cooldown we've been seeing with these systems. In fact, the orientation of this low will maintain easterly flow over the region Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a warming effect for areas west of the Cascades due to downsloping off the Cascades. We'll also see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. The highest chances for this is in the usual places...northern California and east of the Cascades...but with east to northeasterly flow in place, showers/thunderstorms will move from east to west, which could bring some activity to portions of Jackson/Josephine Counties as well in the afternoons/evenings.

This low pressure shifts eastward on Friday and a brief period of shortwave ridging will follow in it's place for the weekend. This will bring the return of dry conditions and above normal temperatures (about 5-8 degrees). The flow aloft remains fairly progressive, so the ridge axis moves east of the region late Sunday into Monday. There's pretty good agreement in at least a broad trough returning to the region, which will bring a cooling trend on Monday into next week. There is disagreement, however, on the extent of that cooling trend. The EC ensemble suite would have a much sharper cool down on Monday compared to the GFS suite. At this time, there aren't any clear signals for another widespread precipitation event in the next 10 days. The members in the EC suite seem to agree on some precipitation along the coast early-mid next week, but not much for inland areas. The GFS suite on the other hand, is far less optimistic for precipitation, even along the coast. So expect dry conditions to continue for most areas into next week.

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)

VFR conditions are present areawide into this evening. Then, IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to return overnight along the coast and in coastal valleys north of Cape Blanco, with conditions improving to VFR between 16-18z. Inland, expect mainly VFR. However, local IFR/LIFR may develop in the Umpqua Basin early Tuesday morning (11-18Z). Guidance only supports a 10-15% chance for IFR at Roseburg (RBG) so have kept VFR conditions in the TAF and will continue to monitor.

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday, September 14, 2026

A thermal trough will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through Tuesday. Winds peak on Tuesday when a brief period of gale gusts are possible south of Gold Beach. Seas will also be steepest on Tuesday, but conditions will ease somewhat Tuesday night into Wednesday as the thermal trough pattern gets disrupted. An upper level low will settle over the region Wednesday through Thursday. This will maintain gusty, though weaker, north winds, with these north winds becoming more widespread. This could result in advisory level winds and steep seas spreading north of Cape Blanco, but also keep hazardous conditions confined to the outer waters through Wednesday night.

Conditions improve Thursday and likely remain below advisory criteria into the weekend. The thermal trough could return over the weekend, however, possibly bringing the return of conditions hazardous to small craft.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.