textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Daytime highs today cool 5 to 20 degrees from the warm conditions observed through much of the past week thanks to a weak cold front flattening an upper ridge. Roseburg hit 77 degrees on Friday and is yet to hit 60 degrees today. Medford is seeing the mid 60s this afternoon after reaching 79 degrees on Friday. Similarly, basins across Lake and Klamath counties are staying in the low to mid 60s after approaching 80 degrees. Areas in Siskiyou and Modoc County are seeing slightly warmer temperatures given the limited impact of that front, with highs staying in the high 60s to low 70s. Clouds are banking in some west side valleys and developing over eastern terrain, but precipitation was limited to the coast this morning and has dissipated.

Cold air behind the front will bring cool but not entirely unseasonable overnight lows tonight. Lows for most areas west of the Cascades and into Modoc County are expected to be in the low to mid 30s, with Klamath and Lake County basins possibly getting into the low to mid 20s. While Advisory products are not being issued for tonight, sensitive plants or animals may still be affected by these conditions

The ridge rebounds somewhat as the weak front moves eastward, keeping warm temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. Daytime highs remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal across the area to start the week ahead. Generally, this will mean mid 60s to low 70s for valleys and basins across the area with slightly cooler temperatures at higher elevations. Dry conditions are a concern for this period, with daytime minimum RHs in the 15- 25% range east of the Cascades and into Siskiyou County to start the week. At this time, winds look to be at normal speeds while RH values are at their lowest and RHs look to improve when winds pick up on Tuesday. Even if these conditions do not overlap to reach Red Flag criteria, dry daytime conditions and possible moderate overnight recoveries could represent elevated fire weather concerns. These conditions will continue to be a focus of forecasting and discussions to start the week.

A warm front looks to move over the ridge and across the area on Tuesday, but the northeast path of the front will keep precipitation light and west of the Cascades. Coastal areas in Curry County could see around half an inch of rainfall while those parts of Coos County are forecast to see between a quarter inch to one-third of an inch. Precipitation expectations for other areas are limited, and will be overall uneventful. Gusty winds are expected at higher elevations across the area, with those gusts possibly reaching Advisory criteria over Lake County terrain. Confidence in this is still moderate, with the best chances along Winter Rim and the Warner Mountains. Per NBM probabilistic guidance, even these "best" chances are in the 30-60% range for gusts to reach the threshold of 45 mph.

Behind Tuesday's front, warm and unimpactful weather is in the forecast. Light showers may continue over the coast and Cascades into Wednesday morning but should clear out by the afternoon. Warm and dry conditions are present in ensemble guidance and deterministic imagery through the end of next week, but how warm is questionable. ECMWF outcomes have the current ridge weakening and the axis moving to the east, allowing for zonal flow and temperatures a few degrees above normal. GFS imagery shows the ridge staying in place and redeveloping, which would bring warmer temperatures. The absence of precipitation for Wednesday into next Sunday is nearly unanimous between the model meteograms. -TAD

AVIATION...22/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as a thermal trough remains set up along the Oregon coast throught tonight. -Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, March 21, 2026

A thermal trough is strengthening today, bringing gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas to the waters from Cape Blanco south. Brief gales are possible for areas from Gold Beach south in the late afternoons and early evenings today and tomorrow. A Hazardous Seas Warning will remain south of Cape Blanco through early Monday, with small craft advisory conditions north of Cape Blanco.

The outlook is for conditions to briefly improve Monday afternoon and evening. Advisory strength winds are likely on Tuesday as a cold front swings through the waters. Gales are also possible if the front is strong enough, especially for areas from Cape Blanco northward on Tuesday. -Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.