textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Slight thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast in the afternoon and evening today and Saturday. Chances decrease further on Sunday and Monday.

* An unimpactful flow pattern will keep seasonable warmth and dry conditions in the forecast through much of the week ahead

DISCUSSION

Southwest flow aloft is keeping seasonal warmth and dry conditions in the forecast for much of the forecast period. This flow is keeping the bulk of a monsoonal moisture plume away from the area, but just enough moisture is present to support isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances in the short term. For today and Saturday, these slight chances (15-20%) are generally limited to western Siskiyou County, along the Cascades, and across northern Lake and Klamath counties. Observations from Thursday evening's thunderstorms show rainfall totals of a few hundreths of an inch across some areas east of Klamath Falls, so local rain showers are possible. Additionally, erratic gusty winds and lightning strikes are possible hazards near a thunderstorm. Chances for activity decrease into the nighttime hours.

The week ahead is looking fairly uneventful at this point. Thunderstorm chances linger into Sunday and Monday, but may decrease down to the 10-15% range. Passing shortwaves may bring just enough energy to allow isolated storms to develop as well as elevated afternoon breezes. For Tuesday and beyond, drier flow looks to keep thunderstorms out of the forecast for the bulk of the week ahead. The next signals for activity are next Friday, but confidence in isolated thunderstorms a week out will usually be slight at most and this is no exception. Upper flow looks to be either southwesterly or westerly, with no significant interruptions. Temperatures on Sunday and Thursday may gain a few degrees as an upper ridge inches over the area, but that additional influence looks to be brief. -TAD

AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs

Marine stratus has settled along the coast, bringing LIFR ceilings and impaired visibilities to North Bend and Brookings. Additionally, Roseburg is seeing MVFR ceilings as that marine layer reaches into the Umpqua Valley. Roseburg looks to see clearing this afternoon, while stratus will stay in place along the coast. MVFR ceilings could return to Roseburg near the end of the TAF period.

Inland areas will generally be at VFR levels through the TAF period. Wildfire smoke may briefly affect visibilities at Medford through the day. Thunderstorms are possible east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening, but coverage does nt expect Klamath Falls to be affected -TAD

MARINE...Updated 430 AM PDT Friday, August 14, 2026

North breezes continue early this morning, but steep seas are expected to persist through this morning. Weak winds and below advisory seas are expected Friday afternoon through the weekend. North winds early next week could reach advisory strength with areas south of Port Orford being favored.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ356-370-376.