textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Night and morning low clouds and fog at the coast north of Cape Blanco, and locally near Brookings during the next week.

* Inland high temperatures trend hotter today and Sunday, around 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Heatrisk is elevated for sensitive groups or those spending extended time outdoors without adequate cooling/hydration.

* Very warm and dry conditions this weekend will bring some elevated fire weather concerns due to near summer-like dryness. But, with weak winds, critical fire weather conditions are not expected. * A weak upper level disturbance moves in Sunday night with an increase of high clouds. But, also...for Lake and Modoc counties...late Sunday night into Monday morning will bring some virga, with a very low chance (3-5%) for thunderstorms.

* Very warm temperatures persist through Thursday of next week. Then temperatures trend towards seasonal norms Friday into next weekend.

* Late next week, Friday into Saturday, around 10-20% probability of very light coastal (Coos/Douglas counties) rain and a 5-15% chance for inland showers.

DISCUSSION

An upper level ridge over the region will bring late-summer like temperatures today. The exception will be along the coast, where cooler temperatures and low clouds are expected. Low clouds are likely to clear or partially clear in the afternoon along the coast and redevelop by early evening. Inland, some low clouds or fog may develop in the Umpqua Basin early this morning, but this will be short lived with sunny skies and very warm temperatures in the afternoon.

High pressure will bring a strong nighttime inversion tonight and light to breezy easterly winds associated with a surface thermal trough, are expected over the ridges. This will result in low overnight/morning humidities with moderate to locally poor recoveries on the ridges. This dryness will elevate fire weather concerns but winds are expected to remain below critical levels. Additionally, daytime humidities will be in the teens for valleys across northern California and east of the Cascades. However, afternoon winds will be generally light.

Heat and dryness are the main concerns this weekend. With the late-summer like temperatures and dryness, dry grasses and leaves will present in many areas. Please be cautious if you choose to do activities that may create a spark. Additionally, the above normal temperatures this weekend will bring elevated Heatrisk to inland areas. Heatrisk is generally in the minor category, or elevated for those sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration. If you are sensitive to heat or spending extended time outdoors, take precautions. Seek shade and stay hydrated. Overnight/morning temperatures are expected to lower in the mid-50s for valleys west of the Cascades and in the 40s for valleys east of the Cascades which will help moderate heatrisk.

The ridge axis shifts eastward and a weak shortwave moves into northern California Sunday night and Monday morning, shifting east of the area late Monday. This disturbance will bring some mid level moisture into far southeast areas, mainly Modoc and Lake counties, and elevated instability. Given the height of the moisture, above 600 mb and mainly above the freezing level, the most likely scenarios is this will just bring high clouds into the area. However, there is a very low chance (3-5%) for virga or thunderstorms.

Otherwise, expect a slightly weaker ridge pattern on Monday, which strengthens again Tuesday and Wednesday. With this pattern, models and ensembles are forecasting continued well above normal daytime temperatures with highs around 15 degrees above normal.

Towards the end of next week, Friday and next weekend, an upper trough moves in from the northwest. This will bring a cool down and low chances for rain, highest at the coast. There is also a potential for a weak shortwave to move into northern California on Friday and bring chances for showers/thunderstorms. However, there is low confidence in this feature and less than 10% of the ensembles indicate this shortwave moving into the region.

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)

A marine layer is bringing widespread LIFR/IFR conditions along the southern Oregon coast this morning, including at North Bend (KOTH). Low clouds will lift and clear to VFR in the early afternoon, with IFR and LIFR returning late in the afternoon or early evening (23-03z). Inland, conditions will be mainly VFR except for areas of fog (LIFR) in the Umpqua Valley this morning, including at Roseburg (KRBG). Elsewhere, across southwest Oregon and northern California expect VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and overall light wind speeds.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, October 3, 2026

North winds and steep seas will persist beneath a thermal trough pattern this weekend. Winds and seas just barely reach the lower end of small craft advisory levels, highest south of Cape Blanco through early Saturday morning, but expanding northward to around Cape Arago on Saturday, and then more over the outer waters late Saturday night into Sunday as the thermal trough moves inland. Even so, gusty north winds are likely to develop again both Monday and Tuesday afternoons with steep seas possible again closer to shore.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ370.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ376.