textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Mainly sunny and hot today with highs inland running about 3-7F above normal.

* A dry cold front will bring slight cooling Saturday, but also breezy to gusty winds, highest east of the Cascades resulting in critical fire weather conditions.

* A thermal trough pattern Sunday into early next week will bring gusty north to northeast winds to the Umpqua and Illinois valleys, and the Oregon coast. Sunday will probably be the coolest day for most areas, except SW sections as offshore flow develops.

* Temperatures increase early next week, with a warm Chetco effect (80s in Brookings) Monday and the hottest temperatures inland Tue/Wed, then remaining above normal through Friday.

* Thunder chances remain very low (less than 5%) for the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies across the area early this morning with patchy marine stratus, mainly over the offshore waters, but also affecting some coastal locations. A strong upper ridge over the Desert Southwest will nudge toward the area today, so expect plenty of sunshine and temperatures warmer than yesterday, at least over inland areas (about 3-7F above normal). Our forecast for Medford is 99F for a high this afternoon.

Meanwhile, low pressure is centered in the Gulf of Alaska near 51N and 140W. This system will gradually move east toward the British Columbia coast and eventually drag a mostly dry cold front across the area Saturday. From the Cascades west, temperatures should drop back to near or even slightly below normal levels. A deeper marine push is expected Saturday morning into the Umpqua Basin (and also at the coast), so the day will likely begin with lower stratus. There is even a chance at some drizzle at the coast, but this is most likely from around Reedsport northward, up around Florence and/or Newport. Overall, for areas inland west of the Cascades in SW Oregon, expect highs about 10F lower than on Friday. We still expect very dry air to persist east of the Cascades despite a slight cooling trend. With the increase in wind speeds expected ahead of the front, critical fire weather conditions should develop in the afternoon/evening. See fire weather discussion below for more specifics.

After Saturday's frontal passage, a thermal trough pattern will set up Sunday into early next week. Sunday will remain cooler than normal for most and probably will be the coolest day of the stretch for all but southern and western sections. This pattern will bring stronger offshore (NNE) winds to areas west of the Cascades, especially the Umpqua Basin, Illinois Valley and the coast/coast ranges. This will mean a better chance for winds aligning with the Chetco and a good shot at a warm Chetco effect on Monday (highs in the 80s at Brookings). The thermal trough will likely push inland Tuesday/Wednesday, so it will warm up quite a bit over the interior with triple digit heat a possibility again for the Rogue Basin. Uncertainty develops at midweek in terms of how strong upper ridging will be. Most of the guidance shows a flatter ridge with temperatures remaining above normal with moderate heat risk into late next week, but some strengthen the ridge enough to bring potential for heat related products. We'll continue to monitor this. The good news is we still are not seeing any chance for thunderstorms in the next 7 days (probably even longer). Models continue to maintain a dry atmosphere with all the monsoonal moisture remaining bottled up across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. -Spilde

AVIATION...31/12Z TAFs

VFR prevails area wide this morning. Along the coast and over the marine waters, IFR stratus is most prevalent over the offshore waters, but patchy clouds could impact Brookings and North Bend areas during the morning. VFR conditions prevail for all areas this afternoon. Normal diurnal breezes are expected in the afternoon and early evening. Tonight, a deeper marine push should cause MVFR ceilings to develop along the coast, eventually pushing into the Umpqua Basin overnight into Saturday morning. VFR will continue elsewhere. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Friday, July 31, 2026

Light to moderate north winds and seas are expected today, highest south of Cape Blanco. Low pressure passing to the north will produce stronger northerly winds Saturday afternoon/evening with steep seas expected by Saturday night, again south of Cape Blanco. Gales and very steep seas are highly likely Sunday into Monday south of Cape Blanco, and periods of storm force gusts possible. Gusty winds and steep seas look to spread north of Cape Blanco then. -TAD/Spilde

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 AM PDT Friday, July 31, 2026

The main fire weather concern will be the passage of a dry cold front Saturday. As with most dry fronts this time of year, gusty winds are expected to accompany its passage, with gusts up to 20 mph expected west of the Cascades, and of 25 to 35 mph to the east. While the front will bring some slightly improved humidities to the area (west of the Cascades), conditions will be very close to critical levels for some locations east of the Cascades, especially from the Fremont National Forest eastward. As a result, we have added a Fire Weather Watch to southeast portions of FWZ 624 and all of FWZ 625. We may also last minute include FWZ 285 if it looks like winds/rh line up there too. Winds should decrease a bit Sunday. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.