textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Wildfire smoke will continue to push towards the northeast this afternoon. No air quality concerns for our forecast area.

* High temperatures will remain near normal before warming into the upper 90's for some areas Friday.

* Dry weather persists next week.

DISCUSSION

Coastal stratus has pushed farther inland today as the low and trough in the Pacific is starting to push into the Pacific Northwest. This is resulting in some deeper west to south west flow for the entire region. The smoke from the fires in Central Oregon will continue to move towards the north east under this pattern. We're also watching the Castle Fire in eastern Douglas County produce some smoke. Given the lower intensity of the burn, air quality is not anticipated to be an issue later this afternoon and evening for northern Lake and Klamath Counties. The HRRR Smoke model does have the plume hitting Diamond Lake later this evening, so perhaps air quality will decrease there briefly.

By Sunday, models have more troughing in the Gulf of Alaska with the usual four corners high farther east over the southern Plains. This synoptic pattern will keep us under deeper south west to westerly flow and keep our high temperatures right around normal if not a few degrees below normal for late July the rest of the week.

By Sunday night into Monday, a short wave will swing into northern California with no anticipated weather impacts developing during the day. Another short wave from the Gulf of Alaska will move through by Tuesday. Pressure gradients should tighten during this time, although winds don't trend upwards according to the NBM. One would think it would be a bit breezy during Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 20 and 25 mph across the region.

This theme of short waves embedded in the deeper wave in the Gulf of Alaska continues through Thursday, although the air remains too dry to support thunderstorms here. Eventually, this deeper wave in the Gulf of Alaska will move eastwards Friday evening into Saturday with a cold front attempting to move inland. Sadly, it never gets here and we'll stay in the 90's into next weekend. Heat risk does move into the moderate range around the Shasta Valley Friday as high temps are forecast to hit the upper 90's. Otherwise, no major weather impacts the rest of next week.

AVIATION...25/18Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail for most locations through the TAF period, with another round of gusty southwest to westerly winds expected this afternoon. The exception to VFR will be along the coast and inland to the coastal ranges where a weak front moving inland is maintaining scattered to broken MVFR ceilings. There could be periods of VFR later this afternoon, but improvement is likely to be shortlived. Late this afternoon and overnight, expect the return of more widespread MVFR ceilings along the coast as well as inland into the Umpqua Basin, including North Bend and Roseburg. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Saturday, July 25, 2026

Overall, sub- advisory conditions under light south through westerly winds and low seas are expected into early next week. Seas will be a mix of fresh short period northwest swell and low long period south swell. North winds and steep seas could return around mid-week. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.