textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation, marine and coastal flooding discussions.

AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs

Low-level inversions again this morning and blocked flow are resulting in possible low-level wind shear (LLWS) at North Bend, Roseburg and Medford this morning. This will continue until around 20-22z, perhaps slightly longer at North Bend before the inversion breaks (flow shifts at KOTH) and allows winds to surface. Dense fog (LIFR) developed this morning at Roseburg (and some other west side valley locations), but this should erode in the next hour or so as winds surface. Expect gusty southerly winds to develop all areas this afternoon/evening. Peak wind gusts at Medford and Klamath Falls will be in the 30-35 kt range. Most of the rest of the area is VFR at the moment, though MVFR ceilings are present in some places along the coast and in NorCal, especially the Mt. Shasta region, where upslope flow is enhancing precipitation near the mountain. Thunderstorms are expected over the coastal waters today, and some will have the potential to produce frequent lightning and even waterspouts. Gusts in excess of 50kt are possible with the stronger cells. A front will move onshore tonight and this will allow winds to subside overnight, but with lowering ceilings and more widespread MVFR/IFR conditions. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 1040 AM PST Saturday, January 3, 2026

A marine weather statement was issued earlier this morning for thunderstorms with the potential for frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, and even waterspouts through early this evening. We also issued a special marine warning for cells in the southern outer waters earlier, so be on the lookout for possible warnings through the day.

Meanwhile, gales and very steep seas peaking near or just above 20 feet dominated by very steep wind waves and south fresh swell continue in all waters through Sunday morning. Steep to very steep seas linger into Sunday with conditions gradually improving Monday into Tuesday with a mix of northwest swell and lingering fresh south swell. -Spilde/-9

COASTAL FLOODING...Updated 1040 AM PST Saturday, January 3, 2026

High astronomical tides and a storm system offshore today could result in minor coastal flooding of Coos Bay and estuaries during the high tide this morning into early this afternoon. This could occur again during Sunday morning's high tide, but we'll see where this one peaks and evaluate for potential extension in the next couple of shifts. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 335 AM PST Sat Jan 3 2026/

SHORT TERM...24-hour totals from January 2nd were heaviest at the coast with 0.25"-0.50" in Coos County and 0.50"-1.00" in Curry County. Overall inland locations had less than 0.10" with the exception of southern Siskiyou County where a stretch of 0.25"-0.75" fell.

Winds have been blowing since yesterday afternoon, and yesterday's max wind gusts were the strongest in the Shasta Valley with gusts of 40-50 mph and a max of 66 mph at the Montague Siskiyou County Airport. The Rogue Valley also had some tumbleweed action with wind gusts reaching 40-50 mph. Gusts are currently ranging from 15-25 mph, with sporadic gusts near 30-50 mph in Curry to Jackson counties.

Winds will still be a factor with a Wind Advisory in the southern Rogue Valley through tonight and Shasta Valley through 10 AM before it's upgraded to a High Wind Warning. The Curry County coast will also be included in the High Wind Warning later this morning into tomorrow morning. East side will also see advisory level winds starting later this morning while south winds strengthen to 20-30 mph. These conditions will slowly improve later tonight into tomorrow morning.

Radar has a long band of precipitation making its way inland tonight. This will become lighter near the 4 AM mark. Another push of moderate to heavy rainfall at the coast will move in later this morning into the afternoon. This will be heaviest at the coast between 11 AM-4 PM today with lighter precipitation inland west of the Cascades.

The Winter Storm Warning will begin at 4 PM today for areas above 5,000' in Siskiyou County and continue through Monday afternoon. Snow levels will begin at 5,500'-6,000' and fall to ~4,500'-5,000' this evening and overnight. Tonight, there is a 40-70% probability to see 1" per hour snowfall rates near Crater Lake and Diamond Lake. The lowest snow levels will come Sunday night when they reach 4,000'- 4,500'. This could lead to seeing snow in the Klamath Falls area, although less than an inch is expected through Monday there. There will be a short-term lull in activity later Monday afternoon into early Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Activity eases on Tuesday morning before a Pacific front arrives in the afternoon and brings another round of precipitation through Wednesday. This front may bring winter weather concerns across the Cascades, as current guidance has 10 to 15 inches of snowfall through Wednesday. With snow levels of about 3000 feet expected, passes through the Cascades may be impacted. Areas west of the Cascades would see light to moderate showers, with terrain in western Siskiyou County also expected to see 10 to 15 inches of snowfall. Only minor activity is expected east of the Cascades on Wednesday.

Long-term guidance generally shows a stable period on Thursday and Friday, but ensemble agreement is not unanimous. Meteograms for both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles show signals for activity continuing through the end of next week, but with the lack of overall agreement there's no clear idea on if any continued active weather would be hazardous. -TAD

AVIATION...03/12Z TAFs...Low level wind shear continues through this morning in most areas. Medford(MFR) and Roseburg(RBG) seem most at risk alongside North Bend(OTH).

Now that the heavy band of rain has passed terminals west of the Cascades, VFR to MVFR conditions are present are are expected to continue today. Ceilings are forecast to turn MVFR for the night in North Bend and Medford.

Thunderstorms could develop along and just off the coast today. There is some potential instability and winds 2000 feet above ground level will be around 55 knots. Outflows from heavier showers or weak thunderstorms could produce gusts to 60 mph along coastal areas.

Overall, VFR will prevail through the TAF period with higher ceilings in this chaotic weather, although MVFR ceilings are possible with some IFR visibilities under heavier showers.

-Smith/-9

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Saturday, January 3, 2026...Gales and very steep seas peaking near or just above 20 feet dominated by very steep wind waves and south fresh swell continue in all waters through Sunday morning. Some thunderstorms are also possible today. Steep to very steep seas linger into Sunday with conditions gradually improving Monday into Tuesday with a mix of northwest swell and lingering fresh south swell. -Spilde/-9

COASTAL FLOODING...Updated 200 AM PST Saturday, January 3, 2026... High astronomical tides and storm systems offshore the next couple of days could result in minor coastal flooding of Coos Bay and estuaries during times of high tide. The highest risk of coastal flooding will be associated with the high tide (1-2 hours before and after) this morning into early this afternoon. This could occur again during Sunday morning's high tide, but will be evaluated for potential extension in the next couple of shifts. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for ORZ022.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Sunday for ORZ026-029>031.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PST Sunday for ORZ027.

CA...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Monday for CAZ080-082-083.

High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ081.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Sunday for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350- 356-370-376.