textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler weather and some chances of rain will arrive in northern California Tuesday with lower chances of rain in southern Oregon.

* A weakening cold front will push into the coast Wednesday night.

* Temperatures trend higher by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

High clouds are currently moving over the forecast area ahead of the next short wave. We'll see mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with temperatures right around the climatological normals for this time of year. Otherwise, not a lot happening through the day weather wise. The bigger change will come on Tuesday when the aforementioned short wave moves into northern California. It's not looking very wet, although the PoP forecast does increase to about 30 to 40% over northern California with 10 to 20% chances here in southern Oregon. Pretty low impact weather continues now through Tuesday.

High pressure will likely build in Wednesday afternoon in the wake of this short wave and temperatures will likely move a bit higher. Valley fog could form in a few valleys by Wednesday morning if there is enough surface moisture and dewpoints are high enough.

By Wednesday night, models are suggesting a cold front and quick moving shortwave will swing into the Oregon coastline. The probability of precipitation increases to 40 to 60% along the coast with probabilities dropping off significantly farther to the south and east. Again, this is just a little rain with only a few hundreths along the coast.

Finally, it looks like yet another deeper wave will be moving into the state of Washington, although the trough axis is not deep and just skids over Oregon. However, the cold front associated with this trough will approach the Oregon coast and bring low chances of precipitation around the Sunday time frame. Again, this isn't a wetting rain, just enough to push the PoP forecast slightly higher.

Overall, the weather pattern is exceptionally active, although most of the moisture is missing us to the north. The weather impacts will remain low and the biggest impacts will be the morning valley fog in some of our valleys.

Lastly, the second week of November 8th to the 15 is looking wetter for our area based on the ensemble forecasts. There are few members still staying very dry for this week, although most are trending wetter with heavier precipitation.

AVIATION....02/12Z

Low ceilings and fog have filled into the Umpqua Valley this morning over Roseburg(KRBG) and some fog could form here in Medford(MFR) over the next few hours. Dewpoint depressions are under 1 and the visibility sensor is slowly dropping. The high clouds look a bit thiner to the west, so that could aid in fog developing later this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected later this afternoon and evening once the fog mixes out. We will likely see fog form again in the Umpqua Valley later tonight as moisture lingers in that valley. -Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Monday, November 2, 2026

A long period swell has entered the waters this morning and will continue to linger into the afternoon hours. Seas will likely become hazardous to smaller crafts later this afternoon as wave heights approach 10 feet. These conditions will likely continue into Tuesday. Another long period swell around 15 to 17 feet at 15 to 17 seconds will move into the waters around the Friday to Saturday period. An active weather pattern will likely continue into next week. -Smith

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 130 PM PST Sunday, November 1, 2026

Long period WNW swell will continue building into the area into Monday evening. Originating from near the western Aleutian Islands, the swell arrives along the Oregon coast this afternoon at 2 ft at 20 seconds. These high-energy waves will have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to 4 to 6 feet at 19 seconds tonight then to around 8 to 10 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon. So expect the sneaker wave risk will be most prominent late tonight through Monday during the incoming high tides. Wave periods drop to 16 seconds on Monday night, then below 15 seconds later Tuesday; as a result, the risk of sneaker waves will lessen.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ370-376.