textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...14/06Z TAFs

VFR levels continue across northern California and southern Oregon this evening, with scattered to broken mid level clouds. Areas of IFR/LIFR will develop along the coast from Cape Blanco northward, including at North Bend (OTH), around 09Z late tonight into 17Z Monday morning. Inland, areas of MVFR are expected overnight through around 17Z Monday morning in the Umpqua Basin, including at Roseburg (RBG). Elsewhere, expect continued VFR.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Sunday, September 13, 2026

North winds increase tonight into Monday, with steep seas developing south of Cape Blanco. These conditions persist Monday night before north winds reach a peak Tuesday afternoon and evening with steep to very steep seas south of Cape Blanco. Gale gusts and the highest seas are expected 5 to 30 nm from shore from Cape Ferrelo southward. Steep seas may spread farther north on Wednesday before winds and seas begin to ease on Thursday. Improving conditions are likely to follow into early Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 407 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers will diminish by this evening with areas of frost developing overnight east of the Cascades.

* Temperatures trend warmer into the week with highs near normal.

* An upper low will bring a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

* Temperatures trend warmer by Friday.

DISCUSSION...

A cool unstable airmass remains overhead with scattered showers north of the Oregon and California border this afternoon. We'll see this cool showery weather continue until the later afternoon and perhaps early evening. Eventually, the axis of this 500 mb low will move eastwards and we'll see high pressure begin to build with deeper cool northwest flow continuing overnight. We could see pockets of fog along the coast and some valleys Monday morning. Dewpoints are not that high as of now and in the mid 40's here in Medford with mid 50's along the coast. In any case, its something to watch for.

Tuesday will trend warmer with more clearing and a high September sun angle. We're forecasting a high of 82 degrees here in Medford, which is slightly cooler than our normal of 86 for this time of year. Quiet fall like weather continues through Tuesday morning before the short wave approaches the Pacific Northwest Tuesday evening. There is a low chance of showers east of the Cascades on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

By Wednesday, the NBM has a 15% chance of showers along the Oregon and California border in the afternoon. The probability of cloud to ground lightning is also increasing to about 15% over most of our forecast area with lower probabilities along the coast and west of the Cascades. Overall, it makes sense we see a few weak thunderstorms develop Wednesday afternoon with enough clearing. The GFS forecast soundings look good with enough CAPE making it into the -10 to -20C layer.

The short wave will have a chance of becoming a cutoff low by Thursday afternoon. Ensembles are not in great agreement of where to exactly place this cutoff low with some GEFS members putting it over northern Nevada while others keep it right over SW Oregon. Looking at the latest QPF fields from the 12Z ECMWF ensemble, its looking like showers will be around, it's just a question of how far west they'll be. South central and south eastern Oregon will likely see showers on Thursday afternoon. The NBM has a rough 10-15% chance of precipitation mainly east of the Cascades with lower probabilities to the west.

By Friday, this low will likely be on the move to the the east with 1/30 GEFS members keeping the low over us and about 6/50 12Z ECMWF ensemble members keeping showers over southern Oregon. The latest NDFD PoP forecast is likely too dry and the chance of precipitation should be increasing. Friday will also be one of the warmer days next week with highs back into the lower 90's here in Medford.

Overall, most of the week will be dictated by where this upper level low ends up. It could be a partly cloud showery type pattern or trending even warmer and drier. No major weather impacts anticipated this week.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356- 376.