textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...10/00Z TAFs

LIFR is expected to develop north of Cape Blanco after 07Z, along the coast and in sheltered valleys just inland. That area is expected to improve to VFR between 16-18Z on Thursday morning. Elsewhere, VFR will persist through Thursday.

MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Conditions remain hazardous to small craft tonight into Thursday with steep wind waves and gusty north winds. Winds increase further Thursday afternoon, with steep to very steep seas developing south of Nesika Beach and from about 5 to 30 NM from shore, lasting through late Thursday evening. Small craft advisory conditions will linger into Friday. Winds and seas should subside this weekend before potentially ramping up again Sunday afternoon into Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 208 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Hottest day (10-15 degrees above normal) of the forecast period expected today. Slightly cooler Thursday and Friday, but more noticeable cooling expected over the weekend.

* Dry front pushes through region late Thursday into Friday. Gusty winds/low RH on Thursday bring elevated fire weather concerns east of the Cascades. Very slight chance (5%) of thunderstorms across far northern California.

* Increasing chances of showers/light precipitation on Saturday, highest north of OR/CA border and along/west of Cascades. 15-25% for thunderstorms from the coast to the Cascades. Strong winds east of Cascades possible.

* Significantly cooler Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures around 15-20 degrees below normal.

* Dry conditions return Sunday, with warmer (though still around 5- 10 degrees below normal) temperatures returning Monday into next week.

DISCUSSION...Clear skies prevail across the region this afternoon as high pressure remains the dominating influence today. After the recent cool weather, high temperatures will feel quite hot today - topping out in the mid to upper 90s for West Side Valleys and mid 80s for the East Side. Northeast flow is bringing another warm day to the Brookings area as well with the Chetco Effect in full swing. Fire weather concerns remain low today, though with northeast flow in place, expect another night of moderate to poor recoveries over the upper slopes and ridges.

Fire weather concerns increase some on Thursday as an upper level trough drops farther south and brings a dry front through the region late Thursday into Friday. This will bring some gusty winds to the area, especially east of the Cascades. Guidance has trended higher with daytime RHs for Thursday, so critical conditions are not currently expected. Even if winds/RH were reaching critical values, recent moisture has greatly lowered fire weather concerns, and will continue with a headline for this. Guidance shows a shortwave moving northward between low pressure out over the Pacific and high pressure centered over southern California/Arizona. This shortwave has a monsoonal/tropical look to it, potentially bringing some isolated thunderstorms across northern California. Timing of this feature, however, looks like the incoming trough will keep the moisture/instability shoved farther south of the forecast area, but it's likely the source of the increasing daytime RH trend on Thursday. Aside from gusty winds and a subtle cooldown on Thursday, this front will largely go unnoticed. High temperatures trend cooler by another 10 degrees or so on Friday as the base of a broad trough remains over the region. Gusty winds likely return Friday afternoon.

A stronger low drops over the area on Saturday, bringing a much more significant cooldown for the weekend. Temperatures will go from 10- 15 degrees above normal today, to 15-20 degrees below normal on Saturday! Additionally, guidance is trending higher with precipitation chances on Saturday, especially along/west of the Cascades and north of the OR/CA border. Amounts won't be nearly as much as the most recent system, but generally 0.15"-0.25" for the coast and north of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide, with a few hundreths for the rest of the area southward to the state border. Instability with this trough will bring a chance (15-25%) for thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly from the coast inland to the Southern Oregon Cascades.

This low quickly shifts east of the area on Sunday. So, expect dry weather with lingering cooler than normal temperatures into early next week. Model guidance then supports a broad upper level trough remaining over the region early next week with dry weather and near normal temperatures. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.