textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Hot and dry weather through the work week.

* There will be a good chance we set new high temperature records Wednesday and Thursday.

* A cold front will move through the region around Friday night pushing temperatures closer to or slightly below normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Marine clouds are fully entrenched along the coast and over the coastal waters this morning, while skies over the rest of the area are clear. By late this morning or early this afternoon, these marine clouds will push back to the immediate coast, with clear skies and warm temperatures then expected across the area through the afternoon. Overall, these warm and dry conditions will continue for the rest of the week.

Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will peak, pushing well above normal (15-20 degrees) for early October with highs in the mid 90's here in Medford and perhaps a few points hitting 100 degrees in the Klamath River Valley of Siskiyou County. Some daily high temperature records are likely to be tied or broken through this time.

On Wednesday October 7th, we're forecasting a high of 89 in Mt Shasta City and 92 in Montague, which would break the old records 88 and 91 both set in 2022. The hot conditions will continue into Thursday with a forecasted high of 95 in Medford potentially breaking the old record of 94 set back in 1996. In addition, Mt Shasta City's old record of 88 set in 2022 could fall to the forecasted high of 89, and Montague's old record of 91 could fall to the forecasted high of 93.

A pattern change arrives late in the week as the ridge breaks down and upper-level troughing digs in over the western United States. The associated cold front will push through the region Friday, with much cooler temperatures expected through the weekend. Daytime highs will remain warm ahead of the front on Friday, then highs on Saturday are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees cooler, brining conditions back towards normal for this time of year. Rainfall is possible with the frontal passage, but chances are low and constrained to mostly the coast and the western/northern slopes of the coastal ranges, Siskiyous, and Cascades, where upslope could produce some light showers. While gusty westerly winds may develop over parts of the East Side, minimum humidities are currently expected to be just shy of fire weather concerns.

Cooler temperatures look to continue into at least Sunday as the upper level trough remains overhead. Early next week, some warming is expected as high pressure returns. Some model suites depict the arrival of another trough by mid to late in the week, while others retain the ridge for the remainder of the forecast term.

AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs

LIFR in fog/low clouds exists along the north coast, including North Bend and Reedsport, and extends into the Coquille Basin to around Myrtle Point and the lower Umpqua Basin west of Scottsburg. An additional area of LIFR fog/low clouds extends from around Gold Beach southward along the south coast, including Brookings/Harbor. These areas should clear back to the immediate coast by late morning or early afternoon, but are then likely to return this evening. Some areas may not fully clear at all. Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR will prevail across all inland areas through the next 24 hours.

MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Tuesday, October 6, 2026

A persisting thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas during much of the week ahead. As typical in these patterns, the strongest winds and highest seas will be south of Cape Blanco, with very steep seas expected from Gold Beach southward. Winds will be strongest during the afternoons/evenings and very steep seas will return daily during the evenings and overnight periods. Fluctuations in the thermal trough could bring very steep seas northward to around Bandon late Wednesday into Thursday, but the overall pattern will change very little until late week/into the weekend.

A pattern change may bring active weather towards the end of the week, with guidance continuing to show incoming long period westerly swell arriving at some point over the weekend, likely originating from a storm currently off the coast of Japan and the active tropics. Confidence is low but increasing that we will see the first long period swells of the season this weekend into early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ376.