textproduct: Medford

..Updated Aviation Discussion

KEY MESSAGES...

* Near normal temperatures expected for much of this week with Wednesday currently the warmest (slightly above normal).

* Much of the measurable precipitation chances for Mon/Mon night have dwindled down to near zero except for trace amounts near the coast. There is also a low chance (5-15%) for a few light showers along and just of the Cascades, over the Siskiyous and western Siskiyou County on Monday.

* Better rainfall chances expected Wednesday into Thursday with measurable amounts favoring northern California and eastside areas.

* Isolated thunderstorm chances exist on Wednesday within these rainfall chances.

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)

Overall, the weather continues to showcase an overall low impact forecast through next week. The upper level pattern continues to show mostly zonal flow aloft for today, but the flow will become more southwesterly tomorrow as a low approaches the region. Not expecting any measurable precipitation with this front Monday as it appears to be a dry front with QPF amounts essentially down to zero for much of the area. If any location does get rainfall, it would likely be for areas along and near the coast, but only very light amounts would be anticipated as the low stays offshore. Model consensus continues to stall the system out over the Pacific right before moving inland becoming a cut-off low. Then a split flow pattern develops with this low sagging south, and eventually making its way inland over southern California. As the low moves inland, moisture will advect northward into the forecast area on Wednesday. Models show modest CAPE values upwards around 500 J/kg for mainly eastside areas. This would allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop Wednesday afternoon with lightning being the main threat.

Looking ahead towards the end of this forecast period, models do show the potential for another low to develop over the PacNW next weekend. This low will be associated with a colder airmass, and we could see light snowfall amounts along/near the Cascades and areas east of the Cascades Saturday night into Sunday morning. This is getting outside of this current forecast window but worth mentioning and watching going forward. At this time, not expecting any noteworthy amounts, but areas above 4500 feet could see around an inch, and areas above 6000 feet could see around 2 inches.

AVIATION...19/06Z TAFs

VFR conditions will continue will continue tonight for most inland areas. IFR stratus is expected to fill in along coastal locations and areas of MVFR will develop in the Umpqua Valley later tonight and linger into the morning hours. Elsewhere, expect VFR. The chance of light showers on Monday is low with a 5-15% chance, mainly along and just west of the Cascades, over the Siskiyous and western Siskiyou county. VFR will prevail Monday afternoon.

MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Sunday, October 18, 2026

Seas will gradually lower tonight into Monday and are dominated by west- northwest swell. South winds will increase on Monday as a low moves southward offshore but are expected to remain below advisory criteria. Then, Monday evening and night, west swell will build, becoming steep. Breezy to gusty north winds will develop on Tuesday and steep seas will linger, gradually lowering late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.