textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...19/18Z TAFS

Fog and low clouds from earlier this morning are lifting to VFR for west side valley TAF sites. Still could be pockets of valley fog/low clouds, but conditions should improve to VFR all areas this afternoon. An offshore front will bring increasing mid and high level cloud cover area wide through this evening with ceilings lowering to MVFR along the coast and also some areas just inland overnight. We don't think fog will reform tonight in the valleys west of the Cascades since there should be a ceiling in the 4000-6000 ft range initially. With some light precip possible after 04Z from the Cascades west, there could be terrain obscurations as well. Increasing winds aloft and a low-level inversion present around 1500-2000 ft AGL will cause a risk for low-level wind shear (LLWS) from the coast to the Cascades late tonight into Saturday. Stronger south-southeast winds will develop along the coast, from around Cape Blanco southward through Saturday where a period of very strong winds are possible Saturday night into Sunday. Breezy to windy conditions will also develop over higher terrain, the Shasta Valley, southern Rogue Valley and over to the East Side during the weekend.

MARINE...Updated 1000 AM PST Friday, February 20, 2026

A brief period of lighter winds and lower seas is expected through this afternoon. This improvement will be short-lived, however, as a strong storm system will move southward over the eastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska and linger over the eastern Pacific through the weekend. This system will spin up multiple surface low pressures along 130W, the strongest of which is expected Saturday afternoon/evening.

Conditions will deteriorate this evening and overnight as the first surface low impacts area waters. Advisory level winds are likely to return late this afternoon, ramping up to gales overnight. As the strongest low pressure deepens offshore on Saturday, gales are likely to increase to storm force Saturday afternoon/evening, especially for the outer waters. These strong winds will result in very steep and dangerous seas late tonight through Saturday. Winds ease just below gales late Sunday, but seas are likely to remain very steep and hazardous well into early next week. Calmer conditions are likely from Tuesday through the end of the week.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 453 AM PST Fri Feb 20 2026/

DISCUSSION...Fairly quiet and cold morning today. Satellite imagery shows some lingering stratus across portions of the East Side with low clouds and freezing fog in some of the West Side Valleys. It's cold everywhere this morning, including along the coast with low to mid 30s being observed and a Freeze Warning is in effect. Elsewhere, temperatures are running around 5 to as much as 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday morning. Teens to the mid 20s are quite common across the region this morning, coldest east of the Cascades and also in areas where cloud cover is absent like the Shasta Valley where it is currently 16 degrees in Mt Shasta City. A Cold Weather Advisory is in place for the valleys of central and western Siskiyou County through this morning.

Overall, quiet weather is expected today as a shortwave ridge pushes through the region. High temperatures will still be on the chilly side today, running about 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year. We'll see an increase in mid and high level cloud cover later this morning and through the afternoon in advance of a pattern transition. For the past few days, we've been in a cold/wet pattern with low snow levels and that is expected to change over the weekend as strong low pressure lingers over the eastern Pacific. This will set up a "southerly flow" pattern over the region, bringing periods of strong winds, moderate/heavy rain and mountain snow with increasing snow levels. We'll see southerly winds start increasing this afternoon, becoming breezy in the Shasta/Scott Valleys as well as the southern end of the Rogue Valley. Winds increase moreso Friday night, and especially Saturday when a strong surface low swings through offshore. We'll likely be hoisting some wind headlines for this system over the next shift or two, so stay tuned for updates. Details on this weekend's pattern can be found in the previous discussion below.

AVIATION...19/12Z TAFS...Conditions vary across the region with low end VFR/MVFR stratus across portions of the East Side and areas of LIFR conditions in freezing fog in the Umpqua Basin, Illinois Valley and Klamath River Valley. Widespread terrain obscurations are also present and are likely to continue into the afternoon hours. There could be brief period of LIFR conditions in freezing fog that develop in the remainder of the West Side Valleys early this morning right around sunrise, but it should be shortlived. Southerly flow will increase across the region later this morning, and this should bring improving conditions around 17-19z. Expect VFR conditions to prevail area wide this afternoon, though with increasing mid and high level cloud cover after 20z. Low level wind shear may also become an increasing concern towards the end of the current TAF period as a strong storm takes shape offshore.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, February 20, 2026...A brief period of lighter winds and lower seas is expected through this afternoon. This improvement will be shortlived, however, as a strong storm system will move southward over the eastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska and linger over the eastern Pacific through the weekend. This system will spin up multiple surface low pressures along 130W, the strongest of which is expected Saturday afternoon/evening.

Conditions will deteriorate this evening and overnight as the first surface low impacts area waters. Advisory level winds are likely to return late this afternoon, ramping up to gales overnight. As the strongest low pressure deepens offshore on Saturday, gales are likely to increase to storm force Saturday afternoon/evening, especially for the outer waters. These strong winds will result in very steep and dangerous seas late tonight through Saturday. Winds ease just below gales late Sunday, but seas are likely to remain very steep and hazardous well into early next week. Calmer conditions are likely from Tuesday through the end of the week.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026/

SYNOPSIS...

Cold weather will create minor impacts over the area tonight as Mt. Shasta City comes close to a record low temperature. A strong low will strengthen off our coast on Sunday and bring another round of snow and rain to the region. There is a risk of flooding along the coast and coastal rivers into early next week. Overall, moderate weather risks continue for the region.

DISCUSSION...

There are lots of showers on the radar this afternoon as cooler unstable air moves in with sufficient surface heating. The showers have increased in coverage over the last few hours and they should persist for a few more hours. Coverage should decrease into the late evening hours as we loose surface heating and 500 mb heights build quickly behind the departing trough.

Cold weather is the main headline tonight. Temperatures were cold last night, although those were occuring during a winter storm warning. With the recent snow pack, partially clear skies and some very light winds, there is minor cold weather risk according to our criteria in northern California. It will frankly be cold everywhere, but California is usually a bit warmer in the valleys. We're currently forecasting a record low temperature of 12 degrees in Mt. Shasta City with the old record of 15 set back in 2006. We might be a bit too cold in the forecast, but we should come close to that record at the very least.

There was also some talk of fog forming in Umpqua Valley tonight, although the soundings has ample moisture in the boundary layer and the air isn't that dry aloft. It's unclear how much clearing we'll get tonight in some spots, although the high resolution ensemble forecast(HREF) is pretty confident we'll clear out in some spots. Overall, there is a small chance some freezing fog forms later tonight in the valleys tonight.

The focus then turns to the next storm system around late Saturday into Sunday. The next trough dives out the Gulf of Alaska and a surface low undergoes cyclogenesis and starts to spin up off the Oregon coastline late Saturday. The low then strengthens as it heads northwards along 130W and deepens further around 135W and 48N late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Ensembles are pretty consistent in showing this low strengthening between 970MB to 980MB with significant winds in the outer waters. The extreme forecast index(EFI) is showing winds values around 0.9 to 0.95 in our outer waters with a shift of tales of 1. This hints at a pretty strong wind event coming close to coastal shoreline and producing high winds. Local MOS guidance based off the GFS forecast is showing wind gusts up to 65 mph in the coastal headlands. We didn't issue a watch at this time, although it needs to be revisited during future shifts.

We were a little more confident with the snow forecast as NBM probabilities show a 50% chance of >10 inches over 5000 feet in Siskiyou County through Sunday. Therefore, we issued a winter storm watch as models show strong 700 mb flow up the Sacramento Valley. The 12Z ensembles also appear to trend a little wetter with more snow, so that added to our confidence.

Below the freezing level, there will be plenty of rain, especially along the Oregon coast. Integrated Water Vapor Transport(IVT) vectors/values are southerly around 500 for around 72 hours, which could be considered a moderate atmospheric river(AR) for the coast. The latest WPC QPF is showing 4 to 8 inches of rain along the coast as snow levels hover around 4000 feet before increasing to 6000 feet on Monday. When combined with the liquid in snow, we felt there is risk of areal flooding in small streams and rapid rises in rivers. Some of the latest hydro graphs near Myrtle Point along the Coquille river show a 25% chance of reaching minor flood stage by Tuesday.

By Wednesday, things start to quiet down a bit as the low impacting us from Sunday through Tuesday weakens and rotates farther west. Ensembles show higher surface pressure with almost perfect zonal flow aloft, although the NBM has PoPs around 40 percent for most of Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY...A moderate atmospheric river will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall later this weekend into early next week. The first frontal system is forecast to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday with multiple waves of precipitation continuing Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Preliminary estimates are showing widespread amounts of 4 to 6 inches along the coast with locally 8 inches in the favored coast ranges of Curry County. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the Mount Shasta region and also other favored areas of western Siskiyou County.

Small streams and creeks are likely to rise rapidly during this event with nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways during periods of heavy rain. Significant rises on main stem rivers and flashier creeks are also expected. Given that rivers are still running fairly low for this time of year, river flooding potential is a bit lower than usual, but there is at least a low probability of some flooding, especially in the Coquille Basin. We have issued a Hydrologic Outlook (ESFMFR) to highlight this potential.

While the exact scenario for the heavy rainfall and potential flooding remains uncertain, we will continue to monitor the forecasts and update accordingly. Flood Watches may be issued by the National Weather Service if this situation worsens.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for CAZ080-082-083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Storm Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ370-376.