textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion Updated.

AVIATION...26/06Z TAFs

Overnight, expect areas of LIFR to develop in valley fog (beginning around 06-09z) in the Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg, and in the Grants Pass area. These conditions will persist Monday morning then improve to VFR early Monday afternoon. Isolated MVFR is possible along the coast tonight and Monday morning, with a low chance 15% at North Bend. Elsewhere, expect VFR through the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Sunday, January 25, 2026

Southerly winds will gradually increase Monday but winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory levels. Ahead of front, south winds will increase further Monday night and Tuesday. Conditions will peak on Tuesday as the front moves through the waters with winds near or at gale strength and very steep hazardous seas likely. Models have trended stronger with the winds and high resolution models favor winds around 30 to 40 kt over the waters, with strongest winds beyond 5 nm from shore. We are continuing to monitor this period and have issued a hazardous seas watch for the waters. Winds lower Tuesday night. Then, longer period west swell is expected to build into the waters late Wednesday into Thursday, peaking at around 13 to 17 ft at 15 seconds.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 134 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...

Key Points:

* Temperatures closer to normal starting today

* Precipitation chances west of the Cascades late Tues. thru Sat. - Total amounts generally <0.10" for interior areas - Total amounts around 0.50"-1.00" along/near the coast

Further Details:

Temperatures will start to rebound today and through next week with conditions closer to normal. High clouds will likely increase today and continue into next week as well. These high clouds may limit our fog chances for areas that have seen fog each morning across the Umpqua Basin, lower Rogue Valley, and some other westside valleys.

Middle of next week is still looking like our next chance for precipitation, albeit very light amounts over the course of several days. Much of the westside has a very low probability (10%-25%) of reaching 0.10" in any 6hr timeframe. The coast and areas near the coast have around 25%-50% for 0.10"/6hrs. Areas along/near the coast in central to southern Curry County likely to see the higher rainfall total amounts. Again these amounts are generally light over the course of several days, but totals across Curry County could end up being around 0.50"-1.00" over several days. That said, these precipitation chances/amounts are nothing to write home about, but certainly a welcome after a dry period across the region. This pattern is very progressive, and chances are not looking good for eastside areas to see much--if any--precipitation through this stretch.

What we need to happen is have the long wave trough which is consuming much of central and eastern CONUS to break down. This doesn't look possible anytime soon. Cluster analysis of 500mb indicates this pattern holding on through Feb 3rd which essentially favors a ridge over the PacNW. Guidance from the Climate Prediction Center (as of today) is indicating in their 8-14 day outlook (Feb 2-8) a very strong signal for well above normal temperatures in addition to a signal for below normal precipitation. This completely aligns with the cluster analysis, and may be a telling sign for early parts of February being above normal for temperatures and overall dry.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ370-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for PZZ370-376.