textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated thunderstorms around Lake County this afternoon and evening.

* Warmer than normal temperatures continue into Tuesday.

* Temperatures trend lower through the week.

* A dry cold front will push onshore Thursday evening with temperatures moving even lower into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KMAX is picking up on some echos in eastern Lake County this afternoon with some virga or light showers at the moment. These lighter echos will eventually give way to some thunderstorms later this afternoon or in the early evening. The SPC HREF has a 50-60% chance of some cloud to ground lightning in southern Lake and Harney counties later this evening. We're not expecting any severe weather, although gusty winds are possible due to dry inverted V soundings up to 600-550 mb.

Temperatures are also on the warm side this afternoon as highs will push into the 100 degree mark here in Medford. Our usual high is around 90 here in late August, so definitely warmer than normal this afternoon.

Fog, low clouds and perhaps some drizzle will also cover coastal areas later tonight. An upper level wave will approach the Oregon coast and that little lift will give us a chance of some lighter drizzle. This is usually picked up by the NAM and we're seeing both the NAM and GFS put down some QPF along the coast tonight.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper level wave mentioned previously will linger off the coastline of the Pacific Northwest. We'll see lighter onshore flow during this time, which will help keep our temperatures cooler and near normal for this time of year. Eventually, this wave will move eastwards into Thursday with a dry cold front moving onshore around Thursday evening. Temperatures will fall even lower into the mid to perhaps upper 80's. Some ensemble members are predicting rain over our area, although the probability is <5%. Therefore, a dry cold front is most likely Thursday evening.

Heading into the weekend, this cooler west to northwesterly flow will likely persist with near normal temperatures. The chance of rain here is low with a 10% chance east of the Cascades Friday evening. The NBM and WPC are also predicting a 20% chance of rain north of Douglas County Saturday. So the best chance of rain remains to the north in Portland's area.

-Smith

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

Satellite imagery shows the marine layer retreating which has allowed VFR conditions to come to fruition for KOTH, but expecting the stratus to fill back in overnight bringing IFR conditions once again. Inland terminals, expecting some high clouds today and enhanced breezy winds, but conditions will remain VFR through this cycle.

-Guerrero

MARINE

Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, August 24, 2026

Fresh northerly swell mixed with wind waves will keep seas hazardous to smaller crafts through most of today and this afternoon. Seas will become low by Tuesday and Wednesday as wave heights top out around 3 to 4 feet. Waves will increase before the weekend with slightly stronger northerly winds.

-Smith

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, August 24, 2026

Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8pm for westside areas including Siskiyou Mountains, Southern Cascade Mountains, and the Rogue Valley in Oregon, as well as western/central parts of Siskiyou County in northern California. The warning is in effect for strong winds and low RH. Several observations sites within the warned area have either hit or been very closer to criteria as of early this afternoon with several more hours of peak heating to go in addition to reaching our peak wind speeds later this afternoon. We do anticipate these critical fire weather conditions to come to fruition today and we will maintain the warning through early this evening.

Additionally, we have a weak upper level disturbance passing through the region today, and weak isolated thunderstorms have developed over northern California and southern Oregon. We expect these chances to continue through early this evening which may impact eastern Modoc County and southern/eastern Lake County. However, not expecting much in terms of coverage or lightning, so there is not a warning out for these thunderstorm chances.

Otherwise, elevated fire weather conditions will continue this week as dry conditions coupled with enhanced breezes reoccur daily under our typical summer-like pattern. We could see isolated areas of critical fire weather conditions, especially Wed-Fri for eastside areas. Fortunately, we will have moderate to good overnight recoveries mid/late next week which should help mitigate this threat. That said, cannot rule out critical fire weather conditions that may lead to further Red Flag Warnings. &&

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ621>623.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ370-376.