textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...10/00Z TAFs

A mix of IFR and MVFR is present along the coast early this evening, with VFR inland. Coastal conditions are expected to become mainly MVFR overnight, then VFR on Wednesday from late morning into the afternoon. Meantime, daytime drying and persistent high ceilings are expected to limit and delay, but not altogether prevent, the return of inland LIFR/IFR valley fog late tonight into Wednesday morning. Coverage of stratus will be thickest around sunrise with improvement expected to be more rapid than it was this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 303 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm weather continues today through Thursday. The Shasta Valley will see gusty winds in the afternoon and evening of Wednesday and Thursday.

* An impactful cold front arrives on Friday, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds in the afternoon and evening. These winds may reach hazardous speeds along the coast, into the Shasta Valley, and across areas east of the Cascades.

* Activity eases on Saturday before a second front arrives on Sunday, bringing another round of precipitation and gusty winds.

DISCUSSION...An upper ridge building over the 4 Corners area will guide weather in northern California and southern Oregon through the middle of the week. Daytime highs will remain 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms through Thursday. Along the coast and on either side of the Cascades, lower elevation areas will see highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Southwest flow aloft will keep mid- to high-level clouds present, which could limit valley fog development. With flow becoming more southerly approaching Thursday, the Shasta Valley looks to see gusty afternoon and evening winds.

A pattern change begins Friday as a cold front arrives. Rainfall will move inland through the day. Most west side areas will see their heaviest rainfall on Friday afternoon and evening, with east side areas seeing their heaviest rainfall in the evening and night. Snow levels look to be at 6000-7000 feet on Friday night, keeping snowfall to the highest peaks and valleys. Some light snow may reach Cascades passes. While surface warmth and liquid precipitation will prevent accumulation, local slick conditions may be possible.

Gusty southerly winds develop over terrain early in the morning, with most areas expected to see some gusty winds through the day. The strongest winds are expected along the coast, in the Shasta Valley, and across the east side. Wind Advisories for the Shasta Valley and east side will likely be necessary, while areas of Warning-level winds have a 20-30% chance of developing. Similarly, while localized coastal winds are expected to reach Warning speeds near Cape Blanco, more widespread Warnings have a 20-30% chance of being necessary along the coast. While not expected to reach Advisory speeds, other west side valleys (Illinois, Rogue, Umpqua) could see periodic gusts in the 20-30 mph range on Friday afternoon and evening.

Activity continues on Saturday, but will be characterized by post- frontal showers during the day. Elevated winds continue but look to drop out of hazardous ranges for most places. The Shasta Valley may continue seeing Wind Advisory conditions. On Saturday night, a second cold front arrives. The second one appears weaker than the first but will still bring another round of widespread precipitation and gusty winds. Curry County will see moderate to heavy rainfall on Sunday morning, but other areas will see more regular amounts. The Shasta Valley may see additional Advisory-level winds. Gusty winds will also be present east of the Cascades, but stay below hazard criteria. Snow levels lower to the 5000-6000 foot range, but lower precipitation amounts keep wintry considerations out of the forecast.

While these fronts look to bring us prolonged rainfall, widespread flooding concerns are low. An absence of snowpack removes the threat of rain-on-snow, and area reservoirs have ample space to store water. Urban ponding or small stream flooding is possible in areas with poor or obstructed drainage, so awareness of local conditions is beneficial.

Activity looks to continue after Sunday's front. Post-frontal showers continue on Monday, with a 10-30% chance of light showers along the coast and over area terrain on Tuesday supported by an approaching shortwave trough. Lower elevations are expected to see seasonal temperatures with cooler conditions at higher elevations. While just outside of the official forecast period, guidance into Wednesday and Thursday has good agreement for another front arriving. At first glance, this third front looks good for another round of precipitation but with no indicators of widespread hazardous conditions. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday, November 10, 2026...Gusty south winds, strongest north of Cape Blanco, will continue this afternoon along with steep swell dominated seas. A warm front will lift north through the region tonight, bringing a slight increase in southerly winds. This will bring increasing seas, becoming very steep and hazardous north of Cape Blanco, along with the potential for isolated gale force gusts at times tonight into Wednesday. Winds will diminish behind the front Wednesday evening, but steep seas and advisory strength south winds are likely through Thursday.

An even stronger front will move in Thursday night into Friday bringing gale force (possibly storm) winds and steep to very steep seas. Yet another major long-period swell will move into the waters following this front late Friday. It is expected to peak Saturday with wave heights in the coastal waters forecast to reach 25+ feet with a period of 18 seconds. Mariners should keep a close eye on the forecasts as this especially impactful system heads our way. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday, November 10, 2026... Wave model guidance is depicting a major, long period westerly swell arriving with an expected storm system late this week into this weekend. The swell is forecast to arrive along the Oregon coast late Friday and peak Saturday morning. Peak wave heights are forecast to be 25+ feet, perhaps higher, at 18 second period, which translates to breaking surf heights of 30 to 35 feet. This would result in exceptionally high and dangerous surf conditions, with completely inundated beaches, and potential dune overwash and erosion. Those with coastal and marine interests should stay up to date with the latest forecasts as this event approaches. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-370.