textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Low impact weather today and through much of the week with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.

* High temperatures peak today at around 5-10 degrees above normal, trending cooler through the week.

* Cooler and potentially wetter weather expected for the weekend. High temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal. Best chances for precip currently along/west of the Cascades and north of OR/CA border.

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...20/12Z TAFs

LIFR conditions persist along the coast and over the coastal waters this morning. Some clearing to the coast, or even offshore, especially south of Cape Blanco, is expected today. Stronger north winds are expected this afternoon at North Bend with gusts to around 25 kt. Brief clearing to VFR is possible there this afternoon, but areas of MVFR/IFR stratus likely return quickly this evening as winds ease. In the Umpqua Basin, MVFR/IFR stratus is develop, and will likely impact Roseburg before sunrise. It probably follows a similar timing to yesterday in terms of clearing, breaking out to VFR sometime late this morning or early afternoon.

The remainder of the area is VFR and will remain that way through the TAF period with weak diurnal breezes and just some high cirrus at times.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 230 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026/

DISCUSSION...Another quiet morning weatherwise. Skies are mostly clear for inland areas with some patches of high level cirrus streaming overhead. The marine layer blankets the coastal waters and inland areas from the Coast Range westward. Some low clouds will make it into the Umpqua Basin again this morning, then gradually give way to sun by the afternoon. Clouds along the coast could peel back to the beaches this afternoon, but cloud conditions are likely to persist through the day today.

Low impact weather is expected today and through much of the week. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will continue through Thursday, with a transition to cooler and potentially wetter weather expected Friday into next weekend. An upper level ridge axis is over the region this morning with low pressure off the central California coast. As this low pressure pushes inland today, the ridge axis will become positively tilted, maintaining another warm day across the region. High temperatures peak for the valleys west of the Cascades today. Highs will be a little cooler in the Umpqua Basin/Roseburg area today due to morning cloud cover.

We'll see increasing mid-high level clouds later today into Monday as low pressure continues moving eastward. There's enough moisture and instability for some buildups across northern California and East Side Monday afternoon, but we don't expect them to amount to much else. Could be some virga or maybe a stray shower Monday afternoon, but we don't expect much change in the sensible weather from this low pressure besides a slight cool down for the West Side.

Zonal flow settles in behind this low pressure for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a weak and dry front passing through the region on Tuesday. Temperatures trend cooler for these days and we'll see some slightly "enhanced" afternoon winds on Tuesday, at least compared to today/Monday. Even still, impacts are expected to be minimal, if any.

Thursday could be a transition day for the area. Dry conditions will continue, but the upper level pattern amplifies as broad troughing over the Gulf of Alaska sags southward and sends a front towards the region late Thursday or early Friday. Southwest flow ahead of this front will bring a slight warming trend on Thursday along with an increase in southwest breezes across the East Side. Current guidance shows gusts of 25-35 mph possible Thursday afternoon.

Guidance is in fairly good agreement on bringing a front through the region at some point Friday, with some solutions showing late Thursday night into Friday morning and others showing early Friday into Friday night. Regardless of timing, it looks like we'll be on the southern end of this front which tends to leave the best chances for precipitation north of the OR/CA border and along/west of the Cascades. Current guidance also isn't overly ambitious with precipitation amounts either...ranging in the 0.10"-0.25", maybe up to 0.50" in the Curry County mountains. Temperatures trend about 10 degrees cooler for Friday and remain around 5-10 degrees below normal through the weekend (low 70s West/upper 60s East) with broad troughing lingering over the area. Showers could linger along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin into Saturday, but the remainder of the area should see dry conditions return (or continue) Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE...Updated 1230 AM PDT Sunday, September 20, 2026...North winds will gradually strengthen today into Monday, resulting in the return of steep seas south of Cape Blanco. As winds strengthen this afternoon, steep seas are expected to spread northward to Cape Arago. North winds and wind driven seas are likely to peak Monday afternoon and evening, with very steep seas and gale force gusts possible south of Gold Beach. North winds begin to ease on Tuesday and conditions should improve north of Cape Blanco. Seas will remain elevated, but less steep as a 5-6 ft northwest swell moves in. South of Cape Blanco, however, wind gusts could approach gale force again in the afternoon resulting in another period of very steep seas. Conditions should improve for all areas for the latter half of the week as seas become swell dominated due to a mix of fresh swell and low northwest swell (4-5 ft @ 10 seconds).

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.