textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Wednesday.

* A front and associated surface low center arrive Thursday afternoon into Friday morning with rain and breezy/gusty winds.

* The surface low may pass onshore along the Coos/Douglas county coastline, producing strong southerly winds along the immediate coast. * Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are then expected through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A closed upper-level low has passed to our south., and is now exiting off to the east, leaving southern Oregon and far northern California under zonal flow aloft. This is keeping the area under seasonable but dry conditions with mostly fair- weather clouds drifting across our skies. Similar, although slightly warmer conditions are expected tomorrow.

Another upper-level trough arrives offshore Thursday, along with a developing surface low. Both features will strengthen as they approach the southern Oregon coastline, before passing onshore late Thursday night into Friday morning. This is a relatively new development within the model suites, and results in a somewhat stronger event than previously expected. Now, gusty south winds are expected along the coast and coastal ranges, along with 0.50 to 1.0 inch of rain as the system passes overhead. A tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain is expected across the rest of the West Side, although more is possible in the Umpqua Basin. Up to a tenth of an inch is now forecast for areas east of the Cascades, although some areas, such as Modoc County, may not see much rain at all. Gusty winds will also spread across the East Side, although speeds are still too low across the model suites for advisory concerns. There is also a low chance for thunderstorms, generally around 15%, again mainly along the coast and into the Umpqua valley.

Once the front passes, conditions dry out and temperatures cool to below normal for this time of year. Another trough may arrive late in the weekend into early next week, and although rain chances are few and far between, continued cool temperatures are likely to continue well into next week.

AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs

MVFR/IFR in areas of fog and low stratus along the coast, over the coastal waters, and across the Umpqua and Coquille valleys has been slow to burn off today, and will continue into the afternoon before clearing to VFR, although some area may not fully clear at all. MVFR/IFR will return to coastal areas overnight and into tomorrow morning. VFR conditions will prevail for all other areas.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep seas will continue through Wednesday night with the thermal trough remaining along the coast south of Cape Blanco. A frontal system and compact surface low pressure center arrive along the ORegon coast Thursday afternoon into Friday, with potentially strong south winds and steep choppy seas, depending on the exact strength and track of the low. North winds return with a redeveloping thermal trough Friday and continue through the weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.