textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs

LIFR conditions in marine stratus persist along the coast north of Cape Blanco and over the marine waters. There should be some clearing this afternoon as gusty north winds increase along the coast, but improvement may be brief over the marine waters. Inland, VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, with mid-high level clouds streaming west to east across northern California. Expect gusty winds to develop across the area this afternoon, then ease after sunset.

IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to return to the coast this evening, then persist into Friday morning. Marine stratus will make a push inland tonight, likely filling portions of the Umpqua Basin by sunrise with low end VFR ceilings. It doesn't look quite deep enough to "spill over" the Rogue-Umqpua Divide, but there could be some patches of clouds along the terrain in the Rogue/Illinois Valleys around sunrise Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 557 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry front pushes through the region late today and early Friday. Gusty winds/low RH on Thursday bring elevated fire weather concerns east of the Cascades. There is a low chance (5%) of thunderstorms across eastern Siskiyou, Modoc and southern Lake counties late this afternoon and this evening.

* A low pressure moves over the area and brings chances for showers on Saturday, highest north of OR/CA border and along/west of Cascades. 15-25% for thunderstorms from the coast to the Southern Oregon Cascades. Strong, gusty winds east of Cascades possible.

* Significantly cooler Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures around 15-20 degrees below normal.

* Dry conditions return Sunday with continued cool temperatures. Gradual warming trend Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough centered to the north will bring a dry front into the area late today and early Friday. This pattern will result in slightly lower temperatures, breezy to gusty afternoon/evening winds, and some cumulus build ups. Temperatures will trend 2-5 degrees cooler today but will still remain above normal across inland areas. The combination of gusty winds and dry afternoon humidities will bring elevated fire weather conditions to areas east of the Cascades. Additionally models are indicating more mid level moisture moving up from the south this afternoon and evening, which combined with instability will bring some cumulus build ups and a low chance (5%) for thunderstorms, mainly across eastern Siskiyou, Modoc and southern Lake Counties. Gusty outflows may accompany any buildups or thunderstorms.

High temperatures trend 7 to 10 degrees cooler on Friday as the base of a broad trough remains over the region. Breezy to gusty winds are likely again Friday afternoon, especially east of the Cascades.

A stronger low drops south Friday night and moves over the area on Saturday. This will bring much cooler conditions on the weekend. High temperatures are expected to be 15-20 degrees below normal on Saturday! Model guidance and ensembles continue to shower chances for showers on Saturday, especially along/west of the Cascades and north of the OR/CA border. Amounts won't be nearly as much as the most recent system, but generally 0.15"-0.25" for the coast, from the Rogue/Umpqua Divide north (Douglas County) and into the Southern Oregon Cascades. Across Josephine and Jackson counties, expect lower amounts of a few hundreths to a tenth of an inch in showers. Instability with this low will bring a chance (15-25%) for thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly from the coast inland to the Southern Oregon Cascades. East of the Cascades, there are lower chances for showers (10-40%). Northern California will be drier with very low (5-20%) chance for showers.

This low quickly shifts east of the area on Sunday. So, expect dry weather with lingering cooler than normal temperatures. Morning lows may dip down to near or below freezing for areas east of the Cascades early Sunday morning. Then, early next week, expect a gradual warming trend Monday through Wednesday with temperatures likely to return to near or slightly above normal by Tuesday.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Wednesday, September 9, 2026... Conditions remain hazardous to small craft through this morning with steep wind waves and gusty north winds. Winds increase further this afternoon, with steep to very steep seas developing south of Nesika Beach and from about 5 to 30 NM from shore, lasting through late Thursday evening. Small craft advisory conditions will linger into Friday. Winds and seas should subside this weekend before potentially ramping up again Sunday afternoon into Monday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.