textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Very warm temperatures continue today, with new daily high temperature records possible at several stations.

* A cold front will pass through the area Friday with breezy winds and significantly cooler temperatures. * There is a low chance for showers with the front along the coast and over the western and northern slopes along and west of the Cascades. A few very light showers are possible over the higher terrain of the East Side Saturday and Sunday.

* Much cooler temperatures are then expected Saturday through at least Monday night with below normal overnight lows. Widespread frost is likely for valleys west of the Cascades, with freezing temperatures across the East Side.

DISCUSSION

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather today, producing well above normal temperatures (15 to 20 degrees) once again this afternoon. We're at the time of the year, that today has a high chance of being the warmest it will be until sometime next year. Several daily record highs may be tied or broken again this afternoon, much like Mount Shasta and Montague did yesterday.

A deep trough will dig south out of northwestern Canada, pushing a cold front through the area Friday. Increasing clouds and lower heights aloft will help push temperatures 5 to 10 degrees lower Friday, but a lack of moisture inflow will likely keep the frontal passage mostly dry. That is not to say the whole area will miss out on rain, as there are some chances of light precipitation along the coast and coastal ranges, and along the western slopes of the Cascades and the northern slopes of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide and the Siskiyous, where upslope flow could wring out a few hundredths of an inch of rain. The front will also produce breezy winds Friday afternoon, especially east of the Cascades.

By Saturday, the front will have passed to the southeast and the upper level trough will pass overhead. The temperature drop will be notable, around 20 to 30 degrees lower than those of Thursday, and conditions will finally feel like the season the calendar says it is. With the trough overhead, some weak instability is possible, so a few light showers are possible east of the Cascades Saturday and Sunday.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue into early next week, with overnight lows approaching freezing in areas west of the Cascades Sunday and Monday mornings. As a result, the first widespread frost of the season looks likely for the Rogue, Illinois, and Applegate valleys, and is possible for the Umpqua Basin as well.

By late Monday, the upper-level trough is expected to close off over central California, then push off to the east across the Great Basin Tuesday. This will allow for a brief period of weak upper-level ridging Monday afternoon into Tuesday, which will result in some slightly warmer temperatures, but nothing like what we have seen for the past week. Another system may pass through the area Tuesday into Wednesday, but details are uncertain at this time.

AVIATION...08/12Z TAFs

LIFR ceilings and visibilities are firmly entrenched along the coast this morning, and are not expected to burn back to the immediate coast until late morning or midday, before returning this evening and tonight. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, October 8, 2026

A persistent thermal trough will continue to produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the rest of the week. As typical in these patterns, the strongest winds and highest seas will be south of Cape Blanco, with very steep seas expected from Gold Beach southward. Winds will be strongest during the afternoons/evenings with the highest of the steep to very steep seas in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco.

A cold front will pass over the southern Oregon waters Friday into Saturday, disrupting the thermal trough and pushing the area of gusty winds to the south for a brief time Saturday into Saturday night, then gusty north winds return Sunday. The next cold front is expected around Tuesday.

Guidance continues to depict the arrival of the first west-northwest long period swell of the season over the weekend, likely originating from the northwestern Pacific near Japan. While swell is not expected to exceed 6 or 7 feet, the swell will arrive at 1 foot at 27 seconds on Saturday before it peaks at around 5 feet at 19 seconds later Sunday. This could produce dangerous bar conditions, heavier than normal surf, and abnormal currents. Swell will then very slowly diminish Monday into Tuesday, continuing at 4 to 6 ft while period lowers to 14 seconds.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, October 8, 2026

The first long period swell of the season arrives this weekend. Originating from a storm off the coast of Japan earlier this week, the west-northwests swell will arrive in the southern Oregon waters Saturday evening with a period over 25 seconds. Swell will then build through Sunday, peaking Sunday afternoon and evening at around 5 feet at 19 seconds. This very long period swell will result in a heightened chance for sneaker waves and run-ups of unusual size through Monday evening.

While the threat for sneaker waves will be persistent throughout Sunday and MOnday, the highest risk is expected during periods of incoming tides. With high tides along the southern Oregon coast expected roughly around Noon to 1 PM, and again around Midnight to 1 AM, the highest risk for sneaker waves will be during the morning and late evening hours.

If visiting the coast Sunday or mOnday, stay vigilant for incoming waves. Stay far away from the surf zone and never turn your back to the ocean.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ376.