textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation forecast

AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions prevail across the region through the evening. Mid-high level cloud cover are increasing this afternoon in advance of a weak front that will move through the region overnight into Wednesday morning. This will bring increasing MVFR ceilings along the coast and inland west of the Cascades after 12z with some light rain mainly along the coast. This rain will continue and move inland to western Douglas that will dry out in the early afternoon. /BR-y/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 102 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026/

DISCUSSION...

There are plenty of cirrus clouds out there this afternoon ahead of the next upper level wave. Temperatures are trending higher compared to yesterday. Here in Medford, we're about 7 degrees higher than yesterday. This will help push us towards highs in the lower 90's under this thermal trough and spotty high cloud cover.

By tonight, no weather impacts are anticipated with high clouds lingering over the region. The approaching wave will take on a notable negative tilt early in the morning. The PoP forecast increases slightly to a 20% chance of rain along the coast. However, the air dries out farther inland and the PoP forecast drops to 1-2% for locations west of the Cascades through the day.

By the afternoon hours, some locations east of the Cascades have a very low chance at showers and thunderstorms. The probability of thunder is again quite low around 5% for sections of Lake County. Ensembles are predicting thunderstorms forming well to our east outside of our forecast area in the afternoon hours. The GFS BUFKIT forecast sounding near Rock Creek(RCK) does have ~200 J/kg of convective available potential energy(CAPE) Wednesday afternoon. Therefore, we feel pretty comfortable with the 5% chance given the isolated nature and low amount of CAPE.

The trough axis and associated cold front should be through our forecast area by Wednesday evening and some cooler air will settle into the region. Overnight lows will trend lower and hit the upper 30's east of the Cascades and upper 40's west of the Cascades. However, highs will be roughly the same between Wednesday and Thursday with near normal temperatures for this time of year. The flow pattern remains zonal through Thursday before we see more troughing around Friday ahead of the next upper level wave.

The probability of precipitation increases again on Saturday with a low chance of rain in Coos and Douglas Counties. Things dry out considerably the farther to the south and east of those areas on Saturday. The focus of this rain will really be northern Oregon based on the latest ensemble runs. Therefore, no weather risks in this forecast period. Nothing pops out in the extreme forecast index through the next 7 days as well.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 1245 PM PDT Tuesday, June 2, 2026...A weak front will move through the region tonight into early Wednesday, disrupting the thermal trough pattern. This will bring a period of improved conditions under sub-advisory winds and seas. West- northwest swell increases slightly on Wednesday, but with seas being swell dominated, the longer period will keep seas from being steep. Swell lowers a bit on Thursday, but north winds will ramp up again south of Cape Blanco, resulting in steep seas from Gold Beach southward. Another front moves through the region Friday into Saturday, once again disrupting the gusty north wind pattern, so expect improved conditions again Friday into Saturday.

Gusty north winds could return late Saturday into Sunday, but the pattern repeats for early next week. So expect the potential for steep seas again on Sunday, followed by improving conditions for early next week. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.