textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Overall low impact forecast through at least Thursday night.

* Areas of valley fog this morning could impact the morning commute due to low visibilities.

* Dry weather with warmer afternoons (10-15 degrees above normal) today through Thursday.

* A much stronger storm system, including rain, high mountain snow, gusty winds, and dangerously high surf, is likely around Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Morning satellite imagery shows quite the variety of conditions with a mix of low, mid and high level clouds affecting the region. Minimal mid-high level cloud cover combined with ample moisture from yesterday's front has led to fog and low visibilities in many of the regions valleys, including east of the Cascades. Visibilities have been bouncing around between 3 miles to as low as 1/4 mile, so widespread dense fog isn't anticipated this morning. Even still, patchy dense fog is out there, so give extra time for commuting, and remember to take it slow and easy with headlights on if encountering fog.

Foggy conditions will improve later this morning, but expect mid and high level clouds to persist today as a warm front lifts northward through the region. Dry conditions are expected today with temperatures trending warmer as high pressure amplifies over the Intermountain West and a trough deepens over the eastern Pacific. A front will stall offshore as this pattern evolves and gusty south winds will persist along the coast through Wednesday before the mid- levels winds weaken. Dry and warm conditions will persist into Thursday with seasonably cold low temperatures and high temperatures hovering around 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year; expect mid 60s for the East Side/upper 60s maybe low 70s for the West Side.

Much like the last few weeks, another repeat of splitting flow is expected Thursday. As the offshore trough continues to deepen, the upper level energy splits. The southern branch moves inland into California and the northern branch gets directed at the Vancouver Island/Seattle region. As this energy stretches, there's the potential for weak surface low to develop along 130 W, which could bring a brief uptick in southerly winds for the Shasta Valley/East Side Thursday afternoon/evening. Gusts up to 35 mph would be the most likely scenario with this, with the potential for gusts up to 45 mph across the higher terrain. This would just be the appetizer for what's potentially to come on Friday.

Confidence is increasing for the long awaited active weather to finally arrive Friday and persist into early next week. As the southern energy undercuts the ridge and weakens it, this allows for a much deeper low from the northwest to move into the region on Friday. Ensembles generally agree on three waves impacting the region: Friday into Saturday, another Sunday into Monday, and another possible around mid week next week.

There are still some timing differences regarding the first front, but the general idea is that this deep low will push a front onshore sometime Friday morning. Snow levels will be high with this first wave, around 6000-7000 ft, so winter impacts will be limited. Winds, on the other hand, will be a concern as a 60-70 kt mid-level jet pushes inland early Friday, which could bring strong damaging winds to the coast, Shasta Valley and portions of the East Side. We'll be evaluating the need for High Wind Watches over the next few shifts. In addition to strong winds, we'll likely see our first significant rain event of the season. Current guidance brings 1-3" of precipitation for the coast over the course of 24 hours from Friday through Saturday morning. Inland, west of the Cascades, 0.75"-1" for much of the West Side, closer to 0.50" here in the Rogue Valley. East of the Cascades is currently expected to see 0.25"-0.40". In addition to wind/rain hazards, there could be significantly dangerous beach conditions Friday and Saturday due to a very high and long period swell. See the Beach Hazards Discussion below for more details.

Another front looks to arrive Sunday. Winds should be weaker with this one, but snow levels are expected to be lower (4500-5000 ft). This will bear watching for potential winter impacts for the higher passes, but current guidance is only showing a few inches of accumulation up near Crater Lake. Active weather continues into next week, though there could be a break for early next week. Stay tuned for updates.

AVIATION...09/12Z TAFs

A variety of conditions exist across the region this morning, ranging from LIFR in fog/low clouds in both west and east side valleys, to MVFR along the coast with high level cloud cover moving in from the west. In general, expect the lower conditions to improve later this morning for inland locations around 17-20Z. Meanwhile, along the coast, expect continued areas of IFR and MVFR conditions through this afternoon and evening, with only partial or brief clearing.

MARINE...Updated 100 AM PST Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Gusty south winds, strongest north of Cape Blanco, will continue today along with steep swell dominated seas. A warm front will lift north through the region later today and overnight, bringing a slight increase in southerly winds. This will bring increasing seas, becoming very steep and hazardous north of Cape Blanco, along with the potential for isolated gale force gusts at times tonight into Wednesday. Winds will diminish behind the front Wednesday evening, but steep seas and advisory strength south winds are likely through Thursday.

An even stronger front will move in Thursday night into Friday bringing gale force (possibly storm) winds and steep to very steep seas. Yet another major long-period swell will move into the waters following this front late Friday. It is expected to peak Saturday with wave heights in the coastal waters forecast to reach 25 feet (maybe higher) with a period of 18 seconds. Mariners should keep a close eye on the forecasts as this especially impactful system heads our way.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 100 AM PST Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Wave model guidance is depicting a major, long period swell arriving with the expected storm system this weekend. Originating from a storm only now beginning to spin up along the western Aleutians, the swell is forecast to arrive along the Oregon coast late Friday and peak Saturday morning. Peak wave heights are forecast to be around 25 feet, perhaps higher, at 18 second period, which translates to breaking surf heights of 30 to 35 feet. This would result in exceptionally high and dangerous surf conditions, with completely inundated beaches, and potential dune overwash and erosion. Those with coastal and marine interests should stay up to date with the latest forecasts as this event approaches.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-370.