textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

In the grand scheme of things, minimal impacts are expected in the forecast area through much of the day Monday. The exception being across northern California. Low pressure is nudging eastward and the front currently bringing light rain along and west of I-5 south of Medford will get pushed inland tonight into Monday. As this happens, a corridor of moderate to occasionally heavy upslope precipitation will remain directed into portions of NorCal, and especially the Mt. Shasta region. This could bring some impacts to the mountains this afternoon, and a Winter Storm Warning is in effect to encompass these initial impacts. While we don't think this will be too impactful for most locations initially, elevations near Snowman Summit or at least the ski road to Mt Shasta Ski park and some of the high passes of SW Siskiyou County abutting Trinity County could be affected. Additionally, some guidance is showing the potential for snow impacts down to the Mt Shasta City area overnight tonight. In general, snow levels will hover around 4000 ft, but there is a brief period tonight from around 10pm to 4 am Monday morning where precipitation intensity could lower snow levels and bring a quick period of accumulating snow to the I-5 corridor/Black Butte region. Upstream energy digging into the trough from the north should give this area of heavier precip a kick south and eastward by Monday morning (and then be directed into the Sierra Nevada south of us), and there should be a lull in precipitation late Monday morning through the afternoon.

A new development in the guidance, however, involves the northern branch of energy with a front that lingers over the coast and into Douglas County. In this area, snow levels will hover around 1500- 2000 ft Monday morning. Some guidance is hinting at a fairly vigorous area of upward motion associated with the front swinging through the coast ranges and into Douglas County Monday morning. We don't think the associated precip will be quite heavy enough to bring snow down to the lower passes (north of Grants Pass), but there is a low chance (~20%) that rain changes to snow briefly Monday morning -- maybe at Camas Mountain.

Monday night through Tuesday will be the time frame when the most significant weather change to colder occurs area wide. Additional energy from the north dives southward late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a deep/cold trough just off the OR/WA coast, allowing for cold air to filter into the region. This will bring about more widespread impactful winter weather with snow levels dropping to around 1000-1500 feet. Anytime we get an air mass this cold, there is potential for snow at the valley floors and since the cold air mass will hang around for a while (Tue-Fri), there will be multiple opportunities. A lot will depend on timing of precip and just how sustained it is. Currently, it looks like the best chance for snow down to valley floors west of the Cascades will be Tuesday morning as the initial cold front is coming in, especially since it's arriving during the overnight hours. Snow levels will fluctuate between the day/night hours, hovering around 2000-2500 ft during the day time, then lowering to around 1000-1500 ft overnight/early morning hours. The coldest air looks to arrive on Wednesday, and this is when we currently expect the lowest snow levels (possibly down to 500 ft, with a 15-20% chance of light snow (<1") down to the beaches). By that point, however, the trough looks to be overhead, so it'll be more of a showery airmass pattern that brings periods of quick and spotty accumulations. Eventually the back side of the trough swings through late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another chance at enhanced precipitation and widespread low elevation snowfall.

It does look like a pattern change is possible late Thursday into the early weekend as this cold trough finally kicks out of here and snow levels rise to around 3500-4000 ft over the weekend. However, the Climate Prediction Center is highlighting the potential for another round of heavy rain/mountain snow for the last week of February.

Given the mild pattern we've been in for the last month, the ground is quite warm, so nighttime and morning hours will be the most likely times for accumulation at the lower elevations. We've gone ahead with a variety of winter weather headlines with some Winter Storm Warnings for locations above 1500-2000 ft west of the Cascades and Advisories all other areas away from the coast. We may need to consider adding in coastal locations, especially above 500 ft, for the Tuesday night into Wednesday wave of precipitation. If you have travel plans Monday through Thursday of next week, it's best to check in frequently for updates as confidence increases in the finer details of the upcoming pattern. /BR-y

AVIATION...16/00Z TAFS

Low pressure off the California coast will bring a mix of ceilings over the airports through Monday. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings will accompany showers through tonight, with areas of terrain obscurations. With upslope flow into the Mt Shasta region, expect heavier/steadier precip there with lower conditions and local IFR/LIFR at times.

Otherwise, a mid cloud deck around 6000 to 10000 feet will cover other locations across the forecast area, with freezing levels around 5000 ft MSL this evening. There could be some LLWS flying into the Shasta Valley through Monday morning with stronger winds aloft that will surface around Weed (gusts to around 40 mph).

Lower clouds are expected to develop in westside valleys late tonight into Monday morning with IFR.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Sunday, February 15, 2026

Steep seas will continue while circulation around low pressure maintains general northeast winds over northern waters and east to southeast winds in the southern waters this evening. Winds will shift to northerly all areas late tonight into Monday.

Conditions briefly and slightly improve Monday, but a front will bring stronger, advisory strength winds later Monday into Monday night. Also, swell will build Monday night into Tuesday night with steep seas through Wednesday. This swell group is approaching the high long period swell threshold of 15 feet at 15 seconds, although it looks like the period will be a second or two short of that criteria. In any case, these conditions will be hazardous to small craft through Wednesday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023-024- 026.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>031.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-082- 083.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ081-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ370-376.