textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* A much drier air mass moves into the area this afternoon and will persist for at least the next 7 days.

* Overall, temperatures will be very warm, but should be pretty close to or just slightly above normal for late July.

* Other than daily intrusions of marine stratus along the coast (and perhaps a slight chance of drizzle at times), cloud cover will be minimal and precip chances will be near zero for inland areas.

DISCUSSION

Pretty quiet weather has developed across the forecast area this afternoon with some marine stratus along the coast and cumulus build ups over higher terrain. A vertically stacked low remains spinning about 200 miles off our coastline with very weak southerly flow in the boundary layer. However, winds aloft around 7000 to 9000 feet remain fairly strong out of the southwest. By Friday, this low will be gathered up by another approaching trough in the Pacific. Weather impacts here at the surface are pretty minimal with temperatures near seasonal normals, although winds will definitely trend higher by Friday afternoon east of the Cascades.

Our main concern will be stronger wind gusts up to 45 mph. Forecast soundings show some stronger mid level winds above the mixed boundary layer Friday afternoon. If we mix about 500-1000 feet higher than anticipated, then wind gusts will likely be stronger than what is in the forecast. It seems pretty unlikely this would happen as the NBM 95th percentile wind gust forecast isn't producing these really strong wind gusts. Also, the extreme forecast index(EFI) isn't picking up on these very strong wind gusts.

By Saturday, a trough and surface low off the BC coastline and high pressure to our east will keep us in this deeper south west flow pattern. All the moisture is well to our north closer to the low with the air significantly drier to the south.

Heading into next week, nothing really stands out except for a short wave moving into Washington state by Tuesday. This should bring some increased westerly flow which will push temperatures down a bit. Overall, pretty quiet and dry summer weather for the majority of the forecast period.

-Smith

AVIATION...23/18Z TAFs

VFR prevails across most of the CWA for the next 24 hours. This includes Medford and Klamath Falls. Marine stratus (mostly MVFR, but local IFR) is also present along the coast. Think this will peel back to around the beaches this afternoon, so there may be some VFR at times then, but expect the MVFR/IFR to return tonight. Roseburg is tricky again tonight. Could see brief MVFR late tonight into tomorrow morning, but should become VFR by late morning. -Spilde/BPN

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Thursday, July 23, 2026

Relatively calm conditions and low, mixed seas are expected through Friday. South winds increase Saturday ahead of a dry cold front, possibly approaching small craft advisory levels. Winds shift back to north and west Sunday, but wind wave dominated seas probably hold off until the middle of next week. -Spilde/BPN

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Thursday, July 23, 2026

Relative humidity has trended significantly lower compared to yesterday and by almost 20% in some locations. These very dry humidities will persist into Friday with RH values east of the Cascades falling into the single digits. Winds will also increase during this time, mainly east of the Cascades in Modoc, Lake and Klamath Counties. We're pretty confident with critical fire weather conditionstoday and meeting red flag criteria east of the Cascades Friday. West of the Cascades, it will be breezy, although not quite dry enough for a red flag warning. In any case, elevated fire weather risk will develop for locations west of the Cascades around the Rogue Valley.

By Friday night, wind gusts die down with moderate recoveries east of the Cascades and over higher terrain and ridges. Some areas of poor recoveries will occur along the Warner mountains.

These dry and windy conditions will persist into Saturday, although humidities might come up a few percentage points. Critical fire weather conditions might even continue into Sunday, although the areas of concern are notably smaller.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ624-625.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ280-281.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.