textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Cloudy skies are moving inland this afternoon as a surface low moves into the Pacific Northwest. We also saw a small fire burning south of Roseburg on the GOES 17 GeoColor RGB this morning, although it's not visible this afternoon due to the incoming cloud cover.

By Saturday morning, the trough will move into northern Oregon and we'll have a low chance of rain in areas north of Roseburg in Douglas and Coos Counties. We're not expecting rain to spread much farther south than that. Perhaps in some locations in the coastal range between Roseburg and Coos Bay. Otherwise, many areas will likely stay clear farther to the south and east as very little moisture is present around northern California. With some cooler air moving in, temperatures will fall to their respective normals for this time of year.

By Saturday night, frost and freeze becomes a concern east of the Cascades as this cooler air moves in behind this upper level low. Temperatures in Klamath Falls will fall into the lower 30's or perhaps the upper 20's. Temperatures in Chemult could fall as low as the mid 20's. Depending on one's exact location, these temperatures will be a threat to frost sensitive vegetation Saturday night.

By Sunday, we warm up by about 7 to 10 degrees as high pressure is in control during the morning hours. The next low and warm front will approach the Oregon coast during Sunday night. A small minority(5-10%) of ECMWF ensemble members and the GFS are spinning up a low off the Oregon coast and bringing a hefty amount of rain to southern Oregon. The vast majority show a lighter rain falling with some dry spots in between during the day on Monday. Another small minority shows some very dry conditions on Monday with just trace amounts of rain falling over the region. Overall, we should see rain on Monday, although there is a spread in the most extreme solutions with some being very dry while others are relatively wet for early June. We'll have to wait and see if things converge in future model runs.

Once this low passes through, we'll see troughing in the northern Rockies with deeper north west flow off the Pacific for the Pacific Northwest. This will keep things on the cooler side with some showers developing Tuesday evening as another short wave moves through the area. A thermal trough will likely set up behind this very deep trough around Thursday or Friday of next week and push temperatures higher. Heading towards next weekend, 500 mb heights begin to build and move into the 97.5th percentile by Saturday night. Therefore, we'll likely be pushing 100 here in Medford. The NBM only has a 35% chance of surpassing triple digits at KMFR.

AVIATION...05/18Z TAFS

VFR conditions persist across the forecast area as some VFR ceilings cover areas near the coast and locations farther inland. We'll likely see MVFR ceilings overnight along the coast as low level moisture moves in. Some of those ceilings could spill into the Umpqua Valley near Roseburg. Rain will be spotty near OTH during the morning hours as this low moves through on Saturday.

VFR ceilings anticipated south of Roseburg and farther inland through the TAF period.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 235 AM PDT Friday, June 5, 2026

North winds and seas will lower today, but increase again Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, especially south of Gold Beach. South winds will accompany a front Sunday night into Monday, along with a chance of rain. Then, light to moderate north winds return Tuesday and Wednesday. A thermal trough will likely bring marine hazards next week as stronger north winds and steep to very steep seas build Thursday into next weekend.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.