textproduct: Medford

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)

There continues to be a chance for a marine layer to develop, bringing a chance (35-40%) of IFR ceilings to KOTH overnight. Otherwise, this cycle will be noted by mostly VFR conditions with lots of sunshine through the afternoon hours. Breezy wind speeds will develop through the afternoon hours with speeds diminishing around sunset.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 448 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026/

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...

A marine layer will bring a chance (40%) of IFR ceilings to KOTH overnight. Otherwise, this cycle will be noted by mostly VFR conditions. Breezy wind speeds this afternoon are expected to diminish around sunset.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

*Warming, drying trend to close out this week and into this weekend with temperatures jumping to well above normal levels. Even some unusual warmth reaching coastal locations (potential highs in the 90s in Brookings Saturday and low 80s Coos Bay/North Bend Sunday).

*Heat wave Sun-Tue with upper 90s and 100+ heat expected inland west side valleys and in the upper 80s to mid 90s over the east side.

*Some cooling mid-late next week, but still above normal.

*No rain chances next 7 days, though we'll be keeping an eye out for t-storm potential at the end of the heat wave next week.

DISCUSSION...Once again, sunny skies prevail over the entire forecast area this afternoon and temperatures are responding to the higher heights and warmer air aloft with most areas 2-6F warmer than 24 hours ago. The warmth has been felt all the way to Brookings, where NE winds channeling down the Chetco river sent the temperature to 88F earlier at the airport. The agrimet site closer to the ocean was holding around 70F.

The upper ridge responsible for the warm up is building out around 130W and this is inducing a surface thermal trough along the NorCal coast, extending northward into SW Oregon. We expect the strongest offshore winds with the thermal trough over the Siskiyou Mtns and coast ranges of SW Oregon tonight into Saturday morning. So, this means little ocean influence down there and less cooling than recent nights. It also means that Saturday will probably be even hotter in Brookings due to the lack of onshore marine influence. Models have been about 5-10F too low with temps there the last 2 days. So, it'll probably end up in the low to mid 90s based on current model soundings even though models only give that about a 10% chance of occurrence. A heat advisory remains in effect there through Saturday evening.

Inland, temperatures will rise by 3 to 7 degrees over the previous day each afternoon Sat/Sun. The upper level ridge will weaken slightly Saturday night as a trough interrupts the flow briefly, then the ridge rebuilds quickly and remains overhead through the first part of next week. Expect the peak of heat wave Sun/Mon/Tue with daytime highs across the area of 20 to 25 degrees above normal for early to mid June. Some records will be challenged or broken. With NWS HeatRisk showing widespread moderate impacts and smaller areas of major heat impacts, we've issued heat advisories for the remainder of the west side (also including the Mt. Shasta region). The details can be viewed at PDXNPWMFR. Expect highs of 90-100F in many locations with some west side valleys 100-105F and up to 110F in western Siskiyou County. We haven't added east side areas yet, but may add them too with potential advisories Mon/Tue. Recent trends in the guidance suggest that there will be some cooling from the NW Tuesday as the thermal trough shifts farther inland. As such, the advisories for Coos and Douglas counties end a bit sooner than the rest.

The ridge is expected to flatten a bit at midweek. This could be delayed by as much as a day, as these patterns typically are, which will let temperatures cool slightly through the rest of next week. However, temperatures are still expected to remain above normal. Of note, we also tend to see an increased risk for thunderstorms on the back side of heat waves. Models keep the area dry at the end of this one, but there are some hints of instability starting to appear in some runs as early as Wednesday afternoon, but moreso Thursday afternoon, mainly over Modoc and Siskiyou counties. The limiting factor will be atmospheric moisture, which appears lacking as of now, and a clear trigger to set off convection. So while chances are very low (~10%) now, we can not rule out some lightning around the middle-latter half of next week. Confidence should improve as we get closer to the time period in question, and model better resolve the situation. -Spilde/BPN

AVIATION...12/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region and will do so through the TAF period for most locations. Expect another round of breezy north to northwest winds this afternoon, strongest along the coast where gusts of 20 to 30 kt will be common. Some patchy IFR/LIFR marine stratus could return to portions of the coast north of Cape Blanco tonight, including at North Bend, but should quickly clear to VFR early Saturday morning. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Friday, June 12, 2026...A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas across the southern Oregon coastal waters through this weekend. The worst conditions are expected south of Cape Blanco, where gales and very steep seas will persist through Saturday. Winds ease below gales Saturday night, but remain above advisory criteria with steep fresh swell persisting into Monday. Additionally, as winds weaken Saturday night, a wind reversal is likely south of Gold Beach and within 30 nm of shore where marine stratus will surge northward, bringing reduced visibilities.

The thermal trough pattern rebounds Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the return of strong north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas through much of next week. /BR-y

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM PDT Friday, June 12, 2026... Rapid warming and drying is expected to continue into this weekend. This will result in an early season heat wave that will last into early next week. Temperatures will continue to increase, peaking Sunday to Tuesday with daytime highs about 20-25 degrees above normal. This will likely result in some triple digit readings for the valleys west of the Cascades, but especially western Siskiyou County, where it could get to around 110F. Minimum relative humidities will also trend lower (bottoming out in the 10-20% range for most areas) -- though RHs could even drop into single digits at times over the East Side deserts. Meanwhile, broad north through east flow will produce moderate to poor RH recoveries over upper slopes/ridges each night, especially over the Klamath mtns, Siskiyous, and Cascades. A period of gusty offshore E-NE winds is expected tonight into Saturday morning over the Siskiyou Mtns and coast ranges with peak gusts in the 25-35 mph (40 mph?) range. This could repeat Saturday night, but looks like it will be more over the inland mountains since the thermal trough will gradually shift inland. Poor ridge RH recoveries are most likely Saturday night. Also some stronger northerlies could channel through the Goose Basin near Lakeview tonight-Sunday.

The typical diurnal afternoon N-E breezes could again become gusty at times Saturday. While critical conditions are not expected within the current forecast, localized conditions could get close, especially considering the low teens and potential single digit minimum humidities during the peak of the heat wave. Undoubtedly, this period of hot and dry weather will continue to move the needle toward higher fire danger as we head into next week.

Also of note, once the heat begins to ease midweek, we will need to keep an eye out for possible thunderstorms. Model guidance is not currently showing any significant convection chances through Wednesday. But, there continue to be hints in the various model suites, and thunderstorms do typically accompany the breakdown of a heat wave in this area. There is at least a very slight potential (~10% chance) with some guidance showing convection near the Sierra, which could affect SE sections of our forecast area toward Thu/Fri next week. Best chance focused on far northern California and the East Side. Confidence remains low right now, but we will update the forecast as necessary over the coming days. -Spilde/BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ021>026.

CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.