textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* High impact marine weather today and lasting through the weekend

* Inland, low to moderate impacts from strong winds and rainfall; minimal impacts from snow occuring mainly above 5000 feet

* Active weather likely to continue through the weekend and early next week

DISCUSSION

Low pressure, centered near 47N and 134W, or about 550 miles west of Seattle, WA, is sending a strong cold front through our coastal waters early this morning. Strong, gusty southerly winds are surfacing in advance of this front with many areas reporting wind gusts in the 40-65 mph range. Montague, in the Shasta Valley, just reported a wind gust of 66 mph and it's been regularly blowing at 35-45 mph in Klamath Falls. SE winds surfaced here at the airport around 2 am with a peak gust so far of 39 mph. Winds are picking up at the coast right now as well and expect the strongest winds there in the next few hours until mid- morning. Meanwhile, where the inversion has been strong, Roseburg is attempting to fog in. This won't last though since the front is moving onshore and the front will stir things up there as well. Wind advisories and high wind warnings are up through the morning along the coast and the Rogue Valleys and into this afternoon for the Shasta Valley and East Side.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will accompany the front. Expecting 1-3" along the coast, highest in the coast ranges and in portions of southern/western Siskiyou County; 0.50-1.00" over the interior from the Cascades west, but perhaps slightly lower in downslope areas (western valleys) where amounts might only be 0.25-0.50". Same goes for most east side areas, except less than 0.25" over the east side deserts (east of Winter Rim). Rain from the front should be largely beneficial, though ponding may occur briefly in heavier rainfall. Try to clear leaves away from storm drains as this could be a source for localized nuisance ponding/flooding. Post-frontal showers will persist along and west of the Cascades this afternoon and tonight, especially though over the coastal waters and along the coast/coast range mountains, where there can also be isolated thunderstorms. After the front moves through, precipitation should largely end east of the Cascades.

We're not anticipating much in the way of winter impacts from this storm, though higher elevations above 5500 feet could see up to a few inches of snow (Crater Lake NP and Mt Ashland/Shasta Ski areas), to name a few. Locally, snow levels could drop as low as 5000 feet tonight with some slippery roads possible around Diamond Lake or Willamette Pass.

We'll get a brief break Saturday, but another front will move in Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring another round of gusty south winds and beneficial rainfall. Right now, the strongest winds look to occur over the coastal waters and the immediate coast with perhaps some advisory level winds over the interior. We'll take a look at potential hazards in more depth today. Things look like they'll settle down a bit on Monday/Tuesday before the next front moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday. -Spilde

AVIATION...13/12Z TAFs

A strong cold front will sweep through the area today. Gusty southerly winds and still some low-level wind shear (LLWS) can be expected this morning into this afternoon prior to the arrival of the front. Please note the timing of LLWS specified in TAFs for specific terminals. Wind gusts can be 35 kt at MFR and even exceed 40 kt at LMT. Peak gusts at OTH will be around 30 kt. VFR will give way to widespread MVFR in rain as the front moves through. Rainfall will be capable of bringing lower ceilings and visibilities, perhaps to IFR at times, as well as obscuring elevated terrain. Rainfall will be heaviest along the coast, but inland areas could still see periods of impactful precipitation. Snow levels of 7000 feet or higher through this afternoon will keep snowfall to the highest peaks and ridgelines. Post-frontal showers persist along the coast and just inland this afternoon and tonight and there can be isolated thunderstorms there and over the coastal waters. After the front moves east later this afternoon and evening, shower activity should wane elsewhere, especially east of the Cascades. Winds should also subside. Snow levels eventually fall to around 5000 feet, but snowfall should not impact area terminals. -Spilde/TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, November 13, 2026

A strong front moving through the waters this morning will bring rain and storm force winds through about mid-morning along with very steep, dangerous seas of 15 to 19 feet (at only 10-14 seconds). Then, this afternoon, winds ease somewhat but gusts remain at gale levels with showers and even isolated thunderstorms. Very steep and very hazardous long period swell starts to arrive at the boundary of the outer waters, 60 nm from shore, and builds this afternoon. Significant wave heights associated with this swell are expected to peak at 25 to 30 feet at 18 seconds, and will impact all waters tonight into Saturday morning. Wave heights decrease slightly but remain very steep and hazardous Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night into Sunday morning, a second front moves over area waters. This front will only be marginally weaker than the first. Current guidance shows widespread gales and additional storm force wind gusts for a shorter duration, but also more moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds fall below gale levels by late Sunday morning, but another long period swell (this one 19-23 ft at 18 seconds) will support very steep and hazardous seas persisting across area waters Sunday into Monday.

Mariners are urged to remain in port during this period of extremely dangerous weather, secure vessels and continue to monitor forecasts for updates. -Spilde/TAD

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, November 13, 2026

Dangerous conditions are expected along area beaches today through the weekend. A strong cold front will move through this morning followed by a major, long period westerly swell. Ocean swells will rise dramatically and peak at 25 to 30 feet, causing breaking waves in the surf zone of 30 to 35 feet tonight into Saturday morning. This will cause exceptionally high and dangerous surf conditions, with completely inundated beaches, and potential dune overwash and erosion. Surf heights may lower somewhat Saturday night, but another heavy long period swell is anticipated behind a second front Sunday. Breakers in the surf zone could reach 25-30 feet and persist Sunday night into Monday. Those with coastal and marine interests should stay up to date with the latest forecasts as this dangerous surf event could impact coastal infrastructure. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021-022.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ026-029>031.

High Surf Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST Saturday for ORZ021-022.

CA...High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Storm Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.