textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...07/18Z TAFs

MVFR ceilings remain over the oregon coast and into the Umpqua Valley under a lingering marine layer. Satellite imagery is starting to show clearing, so VFR levels are expected in these areas later this morning or early in the afternoon. Marine stratus returns later this evening. Patchy fog is possible into early Friday morning, but sustained fog does not currently look likely.

Inland areas will remain at VFR levels under stable atmospheric conditions. -TAD

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 306 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...

Key Points:

* Limited impacts continue the next several days - Most notable will be the well above normal temperatures - Some areas 10-15+ degree above normal * Drying trend continues for the extended forecast - No signal for precipitation in the forecast at this time - See details below about fuels

Further Details:

A ridge of high pressure continues to build in over the region as a long wave trough consumes much of the central and eastern CONUS. Overall, this ridge will be the dominated upper level pattern for the region through much of the forecast with one caveat tomorrow. That caveat will be a weak shortwave entering the PacNW; however, this shortwave is very progressive eastward, and will likely only result in cooler temperatures for our area. Tomorrow is the overall "coolest" day in the forecast, but we are still forecasting above normal temperatures.

We continue to see a signal in the extended forecast for this ridge to essentially remain in place through middle parts of May. This is confirmed via cluster analysis leading to high confidence in a more likely ridge pattern aloft through Day 9. This will likely result in continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions which may result in an accelerated period of drying for fuels. Forecast energy release component values for fuels are forecast to rise near their maximum values for this time of year. Or, another way to look at this, these values are forecast to go above 1 standard deviation from "normal" values for this time of year.

Through May, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) continues to indicate a strong signal for above normal/well above normal temperatures, and a signal for below normal precipitation chances. In fact, there is a signal for this trend to continue May-June- July with El Nino chances likely (61% chance) to emerge through this period, and persist through at least the end of 2026. This was indicated in the CPC April 9th ENSO diagnostic discussion.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

Marine stratus is bringing a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions to the coast and coastal valleys into the lower Umpqua Valley. The marine layer will gradually extend back into the central portion of the Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg, overnight. But, the stratus is expected to be faster to improve on Thursday morning, with VFR by 18Z.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with typically breezy afternoon/evening winds.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, May 7, 2026...Sub-advisory conditions are expected through Saturday. There will be a period of near advisory level winds this morning just south of Cape Blanco between 5 and 30 nm offshore from Gold Beach. Otherwise, light to moderate wind speeds prevail through Friday. West- northwest swell dominated seas at or below 6 feet will persist through early Saturday. A thermal trough develops over the weekend, bringing increasing north winds and steep to very steep seas through early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.