textproduct: Medford

..Updated AVIATION discussion for 18Z TAFs

AVIATION...11/18Z TAFs

A low pressure system passing to the south is bringing cloud cover and showers to northern California, with some areas seeing MVFR levels to start the TAF period. Fog remains in many valleys across northern California and southern Oregon as well. Ceilings in the Umpqua Valley are keeping MVFR levels at the Roseburg terminal. Coastal and elevated areas are seeing VFR levels.

Fog in west side valleys tonight into Wednesday morning will depend on how the day progresses. If the Umpqua Valley ceiling persists, fog may not develop underneath it. For the Rogue Valley, clearer skies today may allow for fog development tonight, although only patchy development is currently expected. Forecast onshore flow could also bring MVFR ceilings to North bend early Wednesday morning. Conditions in northern California and east of the Cascades should generally clear as the low moves away to the east. -TAD

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 339 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026/

DISCUSSION...A low to the south is continuing to send moisture into the area, resulting in light isolated to scattered showers. This is mainly affecting parts of northern California but off and on light showers are also expected into southwest Oregon at times today. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light (trace-0.10 inches) but expect some higher amounts are in the Mount Shasta region (0.10 to 0.5 inches). Snow levels are around 5500 feet, except lower for areas east of the Cascades, around 4000 to 5000 ft. Any additional accumulations are expected to be light though.

Shower activity tapers off this evening and tonight as the low shifts southeast. Weak high pressure will build in Thursday and persist into early Friday. This will result in dry weather, areas of valley fog or low clouds with near or above normal afternoon temperatures.

On Friday night and Saturday, an upper trough will drop south out of the Gulf of Alaska and become centered just west of the area.A low and associated frontal system will move around the base of the trough and towards the area on Saturday, bringing chances (40-80%) for light to locally moderate precipitation to the area. The National Blend of Models supports snow levels of 4500 to 5500 feet during this period. Ensembles show variability with the track and strength of the low, with some favoring the low remaining further offshore versus near the coast on Saturday. A more westward position would favor lower chances for precipitation, especially for inland zones, compared to the low moving nearer shore which would result in more widespread precipitation. So this is one area we are continuing to monitor.

Sunday, the low will shift south-southeast with ensembles showing the low off the coast of northern and central California. Then, as the low gradually moves inland to the south late Sunday and Monday, the upper trough is expected to shift into the area. This pattern is forecast to result in light to moderate precipitation and cooler temperatures. Snow levels are forecast to lower to around 3500 to 5000 feet on Sunday. This will bring a potential for light to moderate snow impacts to mountain passes and higher terrain, especially in Siskiyou County where precipitation is forecast to be highest.

Early next week, models and ensembles continue to show a colder and wetter pattern developing as a second low drops down from the Gulf of Alaska and reinforces the upper trough pattern over the region. Confidence is low the exact timing of this low moving inland. Overall, expect this low will move onshore around Monday into Tuesday, bringing a cold and wetter pattern to the region. The National Blend of Models indicates snow levels will lower to 2500 to 4000 feet. There pattern will bring a potential for moderate to heavy snow for higher mountain passes in the Cascades and western/southern Siskiyou County and for areas in and around Mount Shasta City. East of the Cascades expect a mix of light to moderate snow on Monday. Then, Monday night and Tuesday, the upper trough is forecast become centered over the region with ongoing precipitation and lowering snow levels. Snow impacts will be the main concern with a potential for heavy snow across higher mountain passes and in the Mount Shasta City area and for areas east of the Cascades (such as the Highway 97 corridor and over the mountains. Light to moderate snow impacts may be felt down to lower passes and some valleys west of the Cascades as well. However, details are continuing to be resolved and there remains significant variability in the track and timing of this low, which will affect the precipitation and snow level forecast. We are continuing to monitor and will update as confidence increases in the details for this period.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday, February 11, 2026...Gusty northerly winds are building very steep and hazardous seas in the waters south of Cape Blanco beyond 10 nm of shore, with steep seas present in all other waters. Very steep seas are locally possible in outer waters between Cape Blanco and Coos Bay as well. Winds will east this afternoon, with steep seas continuing in outer waters into early Thursday morning. Long period northwest swell builds in Thursday night and Friday, resulting in steep seas across the waters.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday, February 11, 2026...An incoming west to northwest long period swell will produce a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast from late Thursday night into Friday afternoon.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther up beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the cold open waters of the Pacific Ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through Friday morning for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ376.