textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Section

AVIATION

The main areas of concern for low ceilings and fog are in west side valleys and out to the Coquille Valley. The Rogue Valley has seen some improvements near Medford to VFR conditions, although Grants Pass will still have the lower conditions through this morning. The Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg, will not see much recovery today besides some relief in visibilities this afternoon, but the terminal is likely to stay in IFR/LIFR today as trends continue. For North Bend, it has been noted that between 06Z-12Z there could be a lower ceiling if the Coquille Valley low clouds expand west enough. However, overall expecting VFR conditions at North Bend and Klamath Falls. -Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 341 AM PST Thu Jan 22 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...

Key Points:

* Widespread precipitation-free conditions through early next week - Morning fog/freezing fog possible for some westside valleys - Air stagnation advisories extended through Friday

* A pattern change could develop middle of next week - This may bring widespread precipitation chances - Eastside areas likely to miss out this precipitation

Further Details:

The most noteworthy items continue to be fog and freezing fog the next several mornings along with a stable airmass. Air stagnation advisories continue through Friday which can lead to poor air quality as pollutants get trapped under stable air.

Northwesterly flow aloft has developed in the wake of a passing cutoff low which is on its way south of California. While the pattern does change, this will likely not lead to widepsread precipitation chances. While there may be increased mixing the next several days with this pattern change, the overall mixing heights remain low through early next week. This pattern change will usher in a colder airmass which will lead to cold mornings both Saturday and Sunday. We may need to consider Cold Weather Advisories; however, the one caveat will be fog which could limit radiational cooling leading to warmer temperatures overnight. While eastside areas could be in the single digits both of these mornings, the criteria for these areas are much colder than westside areas. Nailing down fog chances will be crucial for these potential advisories across some westside areas this weekend.

Looking ahead, the next reasonable chance for widespread precipitation may come middle of next week. The trend lately has been for dry conditions to prevail, even as chances come into the extended only to disappear once we get closer in time. This is leading to some uncertainty for next week. Ensemble data is indicating the probability for 0.10"/6 hrs is around 10-35 percent starting middle of next week. These chances are for westside areas with coastal areas being on the higher end. That said, these are low probabilities for light QPF, but at least its a chance for precipitation that we have been lacking for almost two week now for many areas.

-Guerrero MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Thursday, January 22, 2026... Northerly winds will increase today and continue to strengthen through Friday afternoon. Seas will increase and become steep and hazardous to smaller crafts south of Cape Blanco, especially beyond 10 nm from shore. Sustained winds will be 20 to 30 knots with gusts around 35 knots with wind wave dominated seas under 10 feet. Winds will weaken Saturday as they become northeasterly, with conditions continuing to improve into early next week. A more active pattern is expected to follow later next week with a couple of cold fronts possible around middle of next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for ORZ023-024-026- 029>031.

Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST Friday for ORZ024.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Saturday for PZZ356-376.