textproduct: Medford

SHORT TERM

KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain is expected along the coast, Douglas County, far northern Jackson County. Light rain/snow is expected in the Southern Oregon Cascades and northwest Klamath today. Snow levels down to around 4000 feet in the Cascades.

* Chances for light snow (Trace-1.5 inches) in eastern Lake county and portions of the southern Oregon Cascades tonight.

* Gusty afternoon/evening winds are expected today and Sunday.

* Brief, localized frost is possible Monday morning, in some west side valleys. Highest chances are in the Illinois and Applegate valleys and outlying areas of the southern Rogue Valley. Near and below freezing temperatures are likely in the Scott/Shasta valleys and east of the Cascades.

An upper level trough is moving into into the region today, bringing areas of light precipitation, cool temperatures and gusty afternoon/evening winds. Light precipitation will be mainly focused today along the coast, across Douglas and northern Jackson counties and into the Southern Oregon Cascades. With snow levels of around 4000-4500 feet, expect a light dusting of snow in the higher portions of the south- central Oregon Cascades. In the afternoon, expect gusty northwest winds to develop with winds of 10-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph. Strongest winds are expected in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades. Temperatures this afternoon will be below normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected for inland valleys and highs in the upper 50s along the coast.

The upper trough deepens and shifts southeastward tonight and Sunday. Models and ensembles support areas of light precipitation tonight and early Sunday morning in the Southern Oregon Cascades, Lake County and far eastern Modoc County. This may bring light accumulating snow, especially to the mountains. However, travel impacts are unlikely with amounts generally around a trace to 1.5 inches. Breezy to gusty northerly winds are expected to develop across the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer on Sunday for areas west of the Cascades, but will still remain slightly below normal. East of the Cascades, expect continued cooler than normal temperatures.

Sunday night and Monday, the trough will shift eastward and an upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific will nudge into the area. Expect chilly temperatures Sunday night and Monday morning. Models and guidance continue to support a potential for temperatures to briefly lower into the mid 30s for some valleys west the Cascades, mainly the Illinois and Applegate Valleys and in some outlying areas of the southern Rogue Valley. Elsewhere, for valleys west ofthe Cascades, expect morning lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Cold temperatures near or below freezing are forecast in the Shasta and Scott Valleys and east of the Cascades. Afternoon temperatures will trend warmer, near seasonal normals, Monday afternoon.

Looking out farther, Tuesday through late next week, ensembles continue to show the area under the eastern side of the ridge with rising heights. This will result in warming temperatures and dry conditions.

AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs

Low pressure will dominate the pattern today. While energy will be focused upon Washington and northern Oregon, this will bring periods of light precipitation to Coos, Douglas, northern Curry, northern Jackson, northern Klamath and Lake counties (with snow levels around 4000-5000 feet msl today, lowering to 3500-4000 ft tonight). For these locations expect, areas of MVFR and local IFR ceilings, especially during the overnight and morning hours. Areas of mountain obscurations are expected for southwest Oregon.

Elsewhere, VFR will persist with breezy, gusty northwest to north winds of 15 to 25 kt and gusts 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon and evening.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, May 16, 2026

Steep seas will spread to all areas this morning into early this afternoon as increasing northwest swell builds into the waters and north winds strengthen. Swell will lower late tonight but expect steep seas to linger south of Cape Blanco. Then, north winds will increase Sunday and Monday and bring a mix of steep to very steep seas to the waters, with strongest winds and highest seas south of Cape Blanco.

Persistent gusty north winds along with multiple northwest swell trains are expected through at least mid next week. At a minimum, this will maintain steep seas for much of the area through mid next week. However, the sustained northerly fetch Sunday through Thursday could build very steep seas south of Cape Blanco. North winds also could approach gale force at times, especially during the late afternoon/evening hours.

A hazardous seas watch is in effect for the waters south of Cape Blanco since it looks like at least a 4-5 day period of persistent northerly winds/very steep steep seas (starting Sunday afternoon). We've run it into Monday evening for now, but probably will need to extend it as confidence increases in the duration of the event.

PREV LONG TERM

/Issued 213 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026/

Since upper level heights rise next week, we expect a mostly dry pattern along with a warming trend. Temperatures rise to around normal Monday, then back to above normal levels Tue- Thu. We'll remain in WNW flow aloft during this time period with weak disturbances pushing by to the north every now and then. This means that while it will turn warmer, no huge heat waves are expected. Also, marine layer intrusions are likely to continue at the coast during the nights/mornings; any of the deeper ones could produce a little drizzle near the coast.

NBM has a dry forecast through at least next Friday and perhaps even into next weekend, which would heighten fire weather concerns due to rapidly drying fuels. Lightning risk during this period though is low since moisture will be limited. Models are hinting at the potential for a long wave trough to enter the picture toward the last week of May with a potential cool down back to normal and this is in line with the 8-14 day CPC forecast at the moment. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for PZZ356-376.