textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Hot and dry conditions continue through the weekend. * Thunderstorm chances (15-25%) exist near the Trinity Horn area in southern Siskiyou County this afternoon. * A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast Saturday afternoon in eastern Lake county. * The next trough arrives Monday afternoon, bringing a chance of rain. * Monday will have strong westerly winds and 10-20% RH east of the Cascades.

Mostly clear skies continue this afternoon for most areas except for Siskiyou County that is building towering cumulus. There is a 15-25% probability for a thunderstorm to develop in southern Siskiyou County, mostly between 5-8 PM.

Isolated showers will develop tomorrow afternoon from a line through central Siskiyou County to the northwest into southern Lake County, and rainfall totals are forecast to be less than 0.05" in most areas. Temperatures will remain the same through the weekend with 60s/low 70s at the coast, 80s for the west side, and 70s/low 80s for east of the Cascades. If you're liking the ~10-15 degree above normal temperatures, enjoy it while you can because a cooldown will start the next work week, and rain chances will return to Southern Oregon and Northern California Monday.

Monday system:

The majority of clusters show that the upper low will move through Oregon Monday afternoon/evening. As the rain continues pushing inland, there is a 40-60% probability to see at least 0.20 inches by 5 PM Monday in Coos and Curry counties. Forecast CAPEs are not in our area Monday, but values increase to 100-150 J/kg Tuesday afternoon east of the Cascades, highlighting Lake County.

Gusty winds will begin later Monday morning and will continue through the late evening. Forecast 700 mb winds are near the 45-55 mph mark, resulting in 20-30 mph surface sustained winds in the afternoon during peak mixing. Probabilities for portions of Lake and Modoc counties to reach 45 mph gusts are nearing 45-65% Monday afternoon, so this will be monitored in case there is a need for a Wind Advisory. In the Rogue and Shasta valleys, winds are forecast to reach 20-25 mph with gusts in the 30-40 mph range. AS stated above the rain will come later Monday inland, but the winds will need to be considered for Memorial Day activities.

Getting back to the temperatures, they will return to near normal by Monday before another drop brings them to 10-15 degrees below normal Tuesday (50s/low 60s). Showers remain Tuesday, and this will focus on locations west of the Cascades in Douglas and Coos counties. Although the rain will come to an end, the low will stall in the area, leaving us with cloudier skies and below normal temps. For now, the track will move the low south Thursday, and this will rebound temperatures to normal or above. -Hermansen

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)

Gusty winds will continue along the coast early this evening and again Saturday afternoon. Areas of IFR ceilings are present along the coast from Cape Blanco northward, including at North Bend (KOTH). These ceilings will spread into the Coquille Valley this evening and may lower to LIFR overnight. Areas of IFR/LIFR may also develop south of Cape Blanco overnight, especially near Brookings. Inland, areas of IFR ceilings are expected to develop in the Umpqua Valley late tonight and early Saturday morning. High resolution models show lower ceilings developing at Roseburg (KRBG) early Saturday morning. So, have added these to the TAF. However, confidence is medium. Lower ceilings along the coast and into the Umpqua will lift and clear to VFR between 18-21Z. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions through the TAF period.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Friday, May 21, 2026

A thermal trough is bringing gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas over the coastal waters through tonight. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest this afternoon/evening. Very steep seas of 10- 13 ft are most likely south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (5-8 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Isolated gale force gusts (~40 kt) are possible today over the southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south.

The pattern will ease some this weekend as an upper trough pushes in from the NW, but conditions will remain hazardous to small craft Saturday through Sunday morning for all waters. Could be a brief break Sunday afternoon/night, but models continue to show another trough moving through Memorial Day. The strength and timing of this trough are still somewhat uncertain, but it could bring periods of rain and gusty winds followed by a larger WNW swell on Tuesday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-370.