textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

A low pressure system is swinging over northern California and southern Oregon, bringing another round of winter weather this morning. Snowfall has already been reported in parts of western Douglas County and is visible on roadcams at Cave Junction and Hayes Hill, putting snow levels down to 1500 feet or lower. This supports chances of snow reaching valley floors this morning. Forecast amounts are on the lighter side, with west side valleys all expected to get less than an inch of snowfall through the rest of this morning. Locally higher amounts are possible as showers move over the area. Generally, terrain west of the Cascades may see another 1 to 3 inches of snowfall. Amounts look to be slightly higher in the Mount Shasta region, as a period of upslope flow could bring 4 to 6 inches of snow to areas around Dunsmuir and McCloud while Mount Shasta City looks to stay in the 2 to 4 inch range. Areas east of the Cascades will get their snowfall later in the morning and into the afternoon, with remaining amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range across most of the area and less than an inch in north Lake County.

Precipitation decreases tonight, with another round of below average overnight lows late tonight into early Friday morning. This may bring near freezing temperatures to coastal cities and near Advisory levels for the Rogue Valley (Advisory at 20 F) and western Siskiyou County (Advisory at 15 F). Areas east of the Cascades are expected to see low temperatures in the single digits to mid teens. These conditions can freeze lingering water or wet snow or cause harm to plants and animals that are not acclimated. Most of Friday should be generally uneventful weatherwise as a shortwave ridge passes over the area.

A deep low pressure system leaving the Gulf of Alaska and moving south over the Pacific will dictate activity through the weekend. The details of this low have been coarse, and further changes are certainly possible as high-resolution guidance becomes available. Broadly, a warm front attached to the low looks to bring inland activity on Saturday. This initial front would raise snow levels to 2500-3500 feet. As the low moves south and settles due west of Oregon at 140W, a tight pressure gradient aloft could develop on Sunday. This would bring gusty southerly winds over elevated terrain and into the Shasta and southern Rogue Valleys. This setup would also bring heavy rainfall to Curry and Siskiyou County, notably around the Mount Shasta region through upslope flow.

Previous guidance has kept this low at 140W and snow levels in the 3000-4000 foot range, which brought substantial snowfall to area terrain. Current guidance has the low stretching an upper trough to the southeast. This allows the trough to draw in tropical moisture, forming an atmospheric river that would bring ample rainfall to coastal areas and western Siskiyou County Monday into Tuesday. Current guidance has snow levels at 6000 feet, minimizing winter impacts for everywhere expect the highest peaks and ridgelines

Details for the impacts of this deep upper low will continue to come into focus. Please stay tuned to future updates for any expectations of hazardous conditions. -TAD

AVIATION...19/12Z TAFS

A passing upper low is bringing rain and snow showers across northern California and southern Oregon early this morning. Many areas are seeing MVFR to LIFR conditions as showers move over. Activity is focused west of the Cascades this morning, then moving east of the Cascades into the afternoon. Post frontal showers may bring locally lower flight levels through tonight, but generally flight levels should be at VFR by this evening. Showers look to be limited to the Oregon coast or the Cascades by the end of the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 330 AM PST Thursday, February 19, 2026

Steep to locally very steep seas can be expected today as combined seas reach 10-16 ft. Even after winds ease briefly tonight, steep seas will persist through the early morning hours (4am PST) of Friday. Then, a strong storm will move southward over the eastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska, with strong southerly gales and a potential for storm force gusts (especially over the outer waters - beyond 10 NM from shore) Saturday into Sunday. We have issued a gale watch for the outer waters where confidence is highest. This is likely to result in high to very high and very steep seas across the waters late Saturday through Sunday into Monday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ023-024- 026.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021>031.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for ORZ021- 022.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ080-082- 083.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ081- 084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ370- 376.

Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for PZZ370-376.