textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...04/06Z TAFs

Along the coast, persistent LIFR/IFR conditions in stratus and fog will continue through much of Monday morning. Marine stratus is expected to lift to IFR for the late morning and afternoon hours on Monday before fog and lower ceilings fill back in Monday evening. Besides the coast, stratus is expected to filter into the Umpqua Valley overnight, with MVFR likely at Roseburg from around 10Z to 20Z Monday morning.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail with mid and high level clouds. Isolated shower/thunderstorm activity is expected on Monday afternoon and evening, with activity near the Cascades and across northern California. An east to northeast storm motion is forecast with gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Sunday, May 3, 2026

An extended period of relatively calm conditions has begun, with west-northwest swell dominated seas likely remaining below 10 ft through Friday. Light south winds and fog are expected through Monday night, with gradually diminishing seas. Moderate north winds likely develop on Friday, with the return of the thermal trough. Stronger north winds are possible Saturday into next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 845 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026/

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms moved through more areas west of the Cascades this evening, and there were storms that developed half inch hail and brought heavier rain. Some 12-hour totals as of 8:45 PM reached 0.40"-0.50" in western Jackson County and eastern Josephine County. The shower activity continues this evening, but the thunderstorm threat has decreased. Tomorrow is still on track to see showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in Northern California and along/east of the Cascades.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 159 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026/

DISCUSSION...Radar returns are showing activity developing over southeast Klamath County early this afternoon, following westward flow wrapping around a cutoff low. Activity looks to increase later into the afternoon, especially over Siskiyou County. Northwest flow aloft is expected to move activity over Jackson and Josephine counties. Curry and Douglas counties may see some activity as well. Overall rainfall amounts are fairly negligible, but periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible under any thunderstorm. This may be more likely in the Illinois Valley, which has estimates of 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall through tonight. Thunderstorms may also bring erratic gusty winds as well as lightning. Rain showers may continue into tonight but should dissipate by early Monday morning.

Another round of thunderstorm activity is expected on Monday afternoon and evening. With the cutoff low farther to the east, most activity is expected over Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Southern Lake and Klamath counties may also see some activity. Modeled CAPE values are somewhat moderate, in the 400-600 J/Kg range. This is enough to support additional thunderstorms but doesn't imply severe activity. Rain showers are expected as well, with amounts in the 0.2 to 0.5 inch range possible along the Lake/Modoc southern border.

An upper ridge settles into place through the day Tuesday and looks to remain in control of conditions through the rest of the forecast period and beyond. The Oregon coast is forecast to be about 5 degrees above seasonal norms, with highs in the mid 60s. Inland areas are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Areas east of the Cascades as well as the Umpqua Valley have forecast highs in the high 70s to low 80s, while other west side valleys could reach the mid 80s. A passing front could flatten the ridge somewhat, bringing a bit of relief into Friday and Saturday before temperatures rebound on Sunday. NBM probabilistic data keeps Medford out of the 90s for this week, but has 40-60% chances for next Sunday and into the start of the following week. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.