textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge over the Pacific Ocean and western United States remains in control of conditions today. Daytime highs are expected to remain 10 to 20 degrees across the area through at least Thursday. This keeps the Oregon coast in the mid to high 60s while low-lying areas on either side of the Cascades will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Normal diurnal breezes and clear skies are generally expected. Some cloud cover and light drizzle is possible over coastal areas in Coos and Douglas counties in the early morning hours. A weak front moving over the area on Friday may bring some cloud cover and a few degrees of cooling in the afternoon, but shower chances are minimal. 30-40% chances of precipitation are in the forecast for most west side areas for Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, with 10% chances over the Rogue Valley and Siskiyou County. Winds also look to pick up, but overall this Friday front is entirely unimpactful and Friday's daytime highs remain 10- 20 degrees above normal.

Daytime highs for today through Friday continue to represent Minor amounts of HeatRisk for area valleys and basins. Individuals who are extremely sensitive to heat may experience heat-related illnesses or other effects at these temperatures. Additionally, area waters may remain cold even as the air is warm. Becoming quickly submerged in colder-than-expected water also carries a number of health risks, some of which can become life-threatening. Please use extra caution while exploring or swimming in lakes, rivers, or the ocean.

Friday's weak front does mark the beginning of a pattern change as a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska looks to flatten the ridge. This will allow for temperatures to cool somewhat, with long-term forecasts having daytime highs about 5 degrees above normal for Saturday through Monday. There's agreement across long- term models that active weather could return next Tuesday, although there's low confidence in the details. Both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models show a cold front reaching the Oregon coast on Tuesday. The GFS is supporting a more direct arrival while the ECMWF has ridging pushing the front farther north. Most of the precipitation from this cold front looks to fall west of and along the Cascades, with snowfall possible over the Cascades. Gusty winds are possible if the low moves close enough to the area, with early NBM probabilistic guidance having a 30-50% chance of Advisory- level winds (Gusts reaching 45 mph) over east side terrain on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Models diverge further beyond Tuesday, making any additional long-term forecasting difficult. -TAD

AVIATION...17/18Z TAFs

Areas of LIFR coastal stratus developed late last night. These clouds are thinning, but are still present this morning. This includes OTH/North Bend where conditions are expected to break out to VFR by the afternoon. A similar scenario is expected, but with an earlier onset, after 02Z this evening into Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail today through Friday.

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, March 17, 2026

West swell builds into this evening, but conditions will remain below advisory levels through Friday. A thermal trough develops early Saturday, bringing gusty north winds with gales possible into Sunday, and steep to very steep seas possible into Monday. The outlook is for conditions to briefly improve Monday afternoon and evening, ahead of a cold front with rapidly building seas. Advisory strength winds are likely, and Gales are possible on Tuesday. The west swell dominated seas that follow may become very high and very steep Tuesday night into Wednesday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.