textproduct: Medford

AVIATION...27/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions are present across the area this afternoon, with increasing coverage high clouds ahead of an area of low pressure. Expect some north gusts to 25 knots at North Bend and near Cape Blanco into this evening, then again at the coast from Cape Blanco southward during Sunday afternoon into the early evening. VFR will persist tonight into Sunday, though a few patches of coastal or Umpqua Valley stratus are possible in the early morning as northeast low level winds back to north.

The low will move inland Sunday with conditions remaining VFR, but it could generate a few showers, virga, or an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening, with a slight chance probability for western Siskiyou County and the Cascades.

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Saturday, September 26, 2026

A Small Craft Advisory for all of the waters has been extended into Monday morning, with steep seas to continue south of Cape Blanco through Monday evening. Conditions overall are not likely to change much into Thursday. A thermal trough pattern will keep gusty north winds over the coastal waters this weekend and then over the waters south of Cape Blanco, with steep short period seas. West-northwest swell arrives Monday with conditions improving a bit, especially north of Cape Blanco.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler than normal temperatures continue this weekend.

* Low chance(10-15%) of showers on Sunday over northern California and southern Oregon

* Temperatures trend higher next week.

DISCUSSION...

High clouds are moving through the region this afternoon under this upper level zonal flow. We're also watching a thermal trough over Oregon this afternoon denoted by the inverted 850 mb heights and light east flow around 850mb. This isn't a very strong thermal trough, but one is located right over the Cascades this afternoon.

It'll be another cool one tonight with temperatures slightly lower than the climatological normal for this time of year. Lows in Medford will drop to 45 degrees, which is just 4 degrees cooler than the normal low of 49. Klamath Falls will reach a cool 34 degrees which is right around normal for late September.

An upper level wave will move into northern California and southern Oregon by Sunday afternoon. Ensembles are picking up on some light precipitation around Siskiyou and Modoc County. Looking at the GFS BUFR forecast sounding, we do see about 200 J/kg of convective available potential energy(CAPE) over AAT Sunday afternoon. However, the NBM thunderstorm probabilities are around 2%. So there is a chance for some convective showers tomorrow in northern California and perhaps southern Oregon. Those probabilities are around 10 to 20% in our opinion, while the NBM is going with about 7%. Overall, pretty minimal impacts unless you have some outside events Sunday afternoon.

By Monday, the trough will move eastwards with 500 mb heights starting to rise over southern Oregon. temperatures barely budge, although they do trend higher on Tuesday. By Wednesday, temperatures will end up around normal with highs in the lower 80's here in Medford with some 70's along the coast and east of the Cascades. This warm up is probably due to another thermal trough building along the southern Oregon coast as shown by the 12Z ECMWF model.

By Thursday, models show some progression with a short wave approaching southern Oregon. There is disagreement on when this wave will arrive with some models pushing it back towards Friday or perhaps even Friday night. This wave is looking dry, so we're not expecting any rain down here in southern Oregon and northern California.

Overall, pretty low impact weather continues around our area for the most of next week.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.