textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry weather through the week.

* 5% chance of rain along our northern coast Tuesday.

* Temperatures trend warmer Thursday into the weekend.

* Coastal fog and stratus continues builds in again tonight.

DISCUSSION

It's a pretty quiet start to the work week here with some cumulus build ups over the higher terrain. 500 mb heights are amplified over our forecast area with a closed low moving through California and Nevada this afternoon. Moving into Tuesday, we'll see a warm front over the Pacific slowly diminish and undergo frontolysis during the day. The only reason we're talking about this is because there is a lowly 5% chance of rain along the coast in Douglas County, which is the best chance of rain over our area until next week Monday. Otherwise, not a whole lot going on Tuesday.

By Wednesday, we'll see high pressure remain in control with some coastal fog and stratus during the morning hours. Temperatures will gradually trend warmer towards climatological noramls for this time of year. For Medford, our normal high is around 81 and we're forecasting 79 on Tuesday and 83 on Wednesday.

By Thursday, we'll see the ridge to our south with more zonal flow aloft across Oregon and Washington. Temperatures will continue the gradual incline into the mid 80's on Thursday and lower 80's on Friday. Some ensemble members could be picking up on a thermal trough, or perhaps the ridge is just a bit stronger on Thursday. In any case, Thursday looks like a warmer day. By Friday, we move slightly cooler and it looks like a short wave and some 500 mb vorticity could be moving through on Friday, so that is probably what is pushing temperatures slightly lower.

The last topic for this discussion is the end of the week when the NBM is putting 91 in the forecast for Sunday, October 4th. It looks like this is due to a thermal trough building around Saturday and perhaps lingering into Sunday.

Overall, not a whole lot going through the week on other than the warmer than normal temperatures towards the end of the week. EFI denotes that with values around 0.7, which gives us higher confidence in the warmer than normal temperatures towards the end of the week. Heat risk remains low/limited through the week given the cooler overnight temperatures.

-Smith

AVIATION (18z TAFs)

A few hours of low ceilings and IFR conditions are expected at KOTH, but expecting relief this afternoon with clearing and VFR conditions. Inland TAF sites, are expected to experience plenty of sunshine today and mostly clear skies through this cycle. Otherwise, typical diurnal breezes expected across the area.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Sunday, September 27, 2026

North winds will keep conditions hazardous to smaller crafts through at least Wednesday afternoon. There will be a brief break in the the gusty winds and steep seas later tonight. However, a higher 6 to 7 foot swell moves into the waters on Tuesday while winds increase as seas steepen again on Wednesday. Conditions hazardous to smaller crafts will continues late Tuesday through Wednesday.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356- 376.