textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

Updated aviation discussion.

AVIATION...10/00Z TAFs

While a fairly benign TAF period is expected over the next 24 hours, satellite imagery this afternoon is showing some mid-level mountain wave activity due to stronger west winds aloft which are blowing perpendicular to the Cascades and Warner Mtns. This could result in areas of turbulence during ascent/decent into terminals, but especially near higher terrain. Overall, it's also leading to some mid and high level VFR altocumulus/altostratus.

The only place where moisture could be deep enough to support precipitation (and the potential for MVFR ceilings) will be at the coast north of Cape Blanco and also perhaps across northern Douglas County. Even in those areas, showers will be mostly hit-or-miss tonight into Wednesday morning/early afternoon. Ceilings will mostly waver between MVFR/VFR.

WSW winds through early this evening will be locally gusty over the East Side (gusts to 25 kt), then even a bit gustier Wednesday afternoon/evening (25-35 kt). -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 246 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026/

SYNOPSIS... A strong atmospheric river will remain to our north through the rest of the week with some spotty showers and cloud cover over the region. A weak front will push into the area on Sunday before a strong area of high pressure builds next week. Temperature records in California will be at risk for most of next week.

DISCUSSION...

We're watching some cloudy conditions this afternoon with spotty showers along the Oregon coast near Florence. The majority of our forecast area will remain under high pressure as a strong atmospheric river hits locations in Washington and northern Oregon. The coastal areas and locations in Douglas County will see light precipitation Wednesday into Thursday with minimal accumulations. By Thursday Morning, North Bend could get a quick 0.15 inches of precipitation, although it will mostly be a few hundreths here and there.

With the strong zonal flow, we were watching the wind threat east of the Cascades around Summer Lake and other terrain east of the Cascades. 700 mb wind flow is approaching 50 knots in northern Lake and Klamath counties. However, upper air soundings show modest mixing and don't mix up to 700 mb. We should see a fair amount of wind gusts around the 35 to 45 mph range, but anything above 45 should be few and far between. Therefore, we opted not to issue a wind advisory Wednesday or Thursday, however someone else might see things differently.

Eventually, a cold front will push into central Oregon resulting in some pretty impressive temperature gradients across the region. Currently, the NBM is forecasting a high of 68 in Medford and perhaps some lower 70's in California while temperatures will be in the mid 50's around Salem. The air will be drier as this front moves down from the north, so precipitation will be spotty and pretty light across the region.

Eventually, a 500 mb ridge will build across the region late Sunday into Monday with heights reaching 590dm in northern California. This will lead into some unusually warm temperatures for southern Oregon and northern California for most of next week.

The maximum temperature extreme forecast index(EFI) is showing 0.8 over large areas within northern California and southern Oregon. Therefore, we have high confidence in this warm up next week between days 6 and 10. Right now, we're forecasting highs in the mid to upper 70's for many locations with a 5 to 15% chance of hitting 80 here in Medford on Monday and Tuesday. We'll have to keep an eye on the high temperature records, although it looks like Alturas and Montague will be at risk on the 16th. Overall, not good for whatever snow pack is left. -Smith

AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

While ceilings may approach or reach MVFR at times, we really are expecting this to be a predominately VFR forecast with KRBG, KMFR, and KLMT seeing VFR chances around 85%-95% throughout the cycle. However, North Bend does have a 20%-30% chance for MVFR ceilings. Wind speeds will pick up this afternoon and may be slightly breezy at times, but speeds will calm down around/after sunset.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Tuesday, March 10, 2026...Steep west- northwest swell has arrived. This will be followed by increased south winds tomorrow into Thursday as a front approaches the area before stalling to our north. The strongest winds and more unsettled weather will remain north of Florence, but steep seas will persist north of Cape Blanco with very steep seas possible north of Reedsport tomorrow afternoon and evening.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.