textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist through Sunday with gusty winds (25-35 mph) low RHs. Critical conditions bring a Red Flag Warning for much of Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake counties (winds strongest/RHs lowest today).

* A thunderstorm risk develops early next week. Best chances are on Tuesday, and east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances extending into Jackson County.

* Currently no signals for sharp warm ups or heat waves. High temperatures hovering around 5 to 7 degrees above normal (mid- upper 90s for West Side Valleys and upper 80s-low 90s for the East Side) through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

A southwest flow pattern remains in place today and into Sunday. That flow is being squeezed between trough around a low pressure system to the northwest and a ridge around high pressure to the southeast. This squeezing is causing tighter pressure gradients, indicating increased surface wind speeds. Observations support this forecast, with measurements of wind gusts over east side terrain briefly exceeding 30 mph. Other elevated areas could see 20 to 30 mph wind gusts this afternoon. Valleys and basins on either side of the Cascades look to see slightly elevated afternoon breezes as well. With dry conditions continuing, a Red Flag Warning will remain in place for Modoc, southwest Klamath, and southwest Lake counties into Sunday evening. This does not except other areas from fire weather concerns, and extra caution while involved in any activity that can create sparks or start a fire is encouraged.

With the Evan Creek Street fire continuing to burn this afternoon, smoke distribution remains a possible concern. Afternoon breezes in the Rogue Valley are expected to be from the north-northwest. This orientation may push some smoke into parts of the valley including Central Point, Medford, Phoenix, Talent, and Ashland. And with breezes easing in the evening and overnight, smoke may linger in localized areas. Individuals who are sensitive to poor air quality may want to assess conditions in their area before traveling.

For Sunday and Monday, the low pressure system moves to the northeast and weakens the trough while the high also drifts eastward. These shifts look to result in southerly flow to start the week ahead. Extra influence from the ridge will bring warmer temperatures in the days ahead, with daytime highs possibly reaching 5-10 degrees above normal. Monsoonal moisture looks to follow this flow. This moisture could fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. For Monday and Wednesday, chances are slight (10-15%) east of the Cascades and any thunderstorms that do develop would likely be isolated. Tuesday has the most potential, but also the most complications. If the incoming moisture is able to develop into morning cloud cover, a lack of surface heating could reduce afternoon thunderstorm chances. Conversely, clearer skies on Tuesday morning would increase thunderstorm chances. Models are split on cloud behavior on Tuesday, reducing confidence in aggressive thunderstorm activity for the moment. For now, Tuesday's thunderstorm chances are highest (25-30%) over Lake and Modoc counties and lower (15-25%) over Siskiyou, Kalamth, and southeastern Jackson counties.

The interaction between the northwest ridge and southeast trough look to determine conditions beyond midweek. Variations between deterministic imagery reduce confidence in specific outcomes, but overall there's no indication of any highly hazardous situations in the extended forecast. Drier air aloft looks to reduce thunderstorm chances. Daytime humidities may reach concerning levels near the end of the week ahead, but there's no signal for similarly critical wind speeds. GFS meteogram outcomes keep the area near seasonal temperatures, while the ECMWF meteograms show some chances for highs about 10 degrees above normal. To support this, NBM probabilistic data shows 40% chances for Medford to see 100-degree daytime highs by next weekend. -TAD

AVIATION...12/00Z TAFs

Areas of MVFR ceilings will persist along the coast north of Cape Blanco into this evening. Then, IFR and LIFR is expected to develop late tonight and early Sunday morning, with gradual clearing expected 15-18z. Inland, IFR ceilings are expected to develop in the Umpqua, including at Roseburg (KRBG), late tonight and early Sunday morning (10-16z), with clearing to VFR between 16- 18z.

All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period. However, Medford (KMFR) may see periods of reduced visibilities with areas of smoke spreading into the area later this afternoon/evening. Fire activity will continue to be monitored, but for now it is impacting areas to the north of Medford most. Gusty wind are expected area wide through this evening and and again Sunday afternoon, strongest east of the Cascades (gusts 20-30 mph).

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Saturday, July 11, 2026

Gusty north winds return to areas south of Cape Blanco later this afternoon/evening today, bringing the return of steep seas and conditions hazardous to small craft tonight into Sunday. Borderline steep seas spread north of Cape Blanco late Sunday morning as northerly winds strengthen on Sunday. Conditions improve on Monday, but areas of steep seas/borderline advisory winds may persist into mid-week south of Port Orford. More widespread hazardous conditions are possible for the latter half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated at 200 PM Saturday, July 11, 2026...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue through the weekend, with a Red Flag Warning in place for portions of the East Side and the Modoc Plateau.

Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the afternoons and evening continue through the weekend. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens today. When combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are expected across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 today through Sunday. Winds will ease overnight and recoveries will be in the moderate range (Sunday/Monday mornings). Critical fire weather conditions peak today when humidities trend lower (low teens), winds increase some (25-40 mph) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. Despite this, critical conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon/evening. Expect Sunday's conditions to closely resemble those of Friday.

A thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of the week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which will send monsoonal moisture into the region. There is currently a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon in southeastern Modoc County before expanding to more of Lake and eastern Klamath counties. However, Tuesday looks to have a higher chance for thunderstorms. See the discussion above for more detail on thunderstorm chances.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.