textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...05/00Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the evening with the typical gusty afternoon winds and some cumulus buildups across northern California. IFR/LIFR conditions will return to the coast again after 03z. The marine layer should be less extensive tonight, but portions of the Umpqua Basin could see a period IFR conditions around sunrise again. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all other areas.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 246 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026/

UPDATE...Fire Weather Discussion Updated...

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Saturday, July 4, 2026...There is a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Sunday east of the Cascades, and Monday along and east of the Cascades and over the Klamaths and Siskiyous. There is a possibility that some of these showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two linger on into Sunday night/early Monday morning over Modoc and Lake counties. There should be enough moisture to produce rain within the cores of these thunderstorms, but a few more high based storms, or those along the periphery of the drier air, could produce very little or no rain at the surface. Along with lightning, gusty and erratic winds will be a concern for any storms that develop (especially the drier ones).

Due to the increased threat of scattered lightning and the potential dry thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for FWZs 624 and 625, generally in the areas east of Beatty and south of Silver Lake. If convection continues into the night, the Red Flag may need to be extended out later to cover that nocturnal threat. Details can be found at PDXRFWMFR.

Otherwise, high temperatures remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, and afternoon breezes remain typical to slightly enhanced during the next week. This will result in very dry conditions, generally just shy of critical wind and humidity thresholds, especially Tuesday and Wednesday as a dry cold front passes through the region. Another dry frontal passage is possible next weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 120 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026/

KEY POINTS...

* Low impact weather expected for the holiday today with dry conditions and high temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

* Sunday/Monday - Slight chance thunderstorms across northern California and East Side, most likely across Lake/Modoc counties. Some potential for overnight thunderstorms in same areas.

* Wednesday - dry front raises potential fire weather concerns for gusty winds/low RH east of Cascades.

* Temperatures hover around 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Tuesday, subtle cooling trend to near normal values for latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION...Typical summer conditions will prevail for the July 4th holiday activities today. Skies are clear across the region with some lingering marine stratus along the coast that is gradually clearing. It'll feel quite warm today compared to the recent mild temperatures we've experienced across the region. High temperatures will peak around 5 to 10 degrees above normal today, resulting in mid 90s for the West Side and upper 80s/low 90s across the East. Temperatures will be a little cooler in the Umpqua Basin/Roseburg area due to the cloud cover this morning. There will be some cumulus cloud development this afternoon, primarily over the higher terrain, but dry conditions will prevail today. Skies are expected to remain clear through the evening for those firework celebrations. The exception will be along the coast where marine stratus will return this evening, possibly as early as 8 pm but more likely around 10 pm.

High pressure has developed over the Desert SW and broad low pressure persists to the north of the region. This leaves our area under southwest flow for the next few days. Additionally, some remnant energy and moisture will get swept up into the mid- latitudes today, moving north-northeastward into central California. We'll be on the periphery of that moisture and energy and models remain steadfast in showing enough moisture/instability clipping the southern/eastern portions of the region, resulting in a slight chance of thunderstorms across northern California and east of the Cascades Sunday into Monday. Current hi-res guidance shows the best chances for thunderstorms to be over Modoc/Lake Counties, with some lesser chances across western/central Siskiyou County. Storms could continue into the overnight hours over Lake/Modoc Counties before another wave swings through Monday afternoon and continues the slight chance potential. By Tuesday, the best moisture/instability shifts northward and we could see some lingering chances across far northern Klamath/Lake Counties, but the bulk of the activity should be out of our forecast area.

The upper level pattern transitions on Wednesday. High pressure over the Desert SW retrogrades some and low pressure over the eastern Pacific will send a few shortwaves through the PacNW during the latter half of the week. This will put the region under westerly flow and a more stable air mass, so at this time, it looks like thunderstorms drop out of the forecast by Wednesday. There would likely be a deep marine push Tuesday night ahead of the first shortwave/dry front and we'll see a subtle cooling trend on Wednesday when high temperatures reach around seasonal normals (mid- upper 80s for West Side/low-mid 80s for East Side). This would also likely bring some enhance afternoon/evening breezes, which could bring some heightened fire weather concerns east of the Cascades. Rinse and repeat for the remainder of the week, with another dry front possible on Friday.

AVIATION...04/18Z TAFs...IFR/MFR marine layer low clouds extend into the coastal valleys and the Umpqua Basin, but will burn back to the coast by 20-21 UTC. Meanwhile, IFR/LIFR conditions along the south coast near Brookings will persist a bit longer, perhaps even lingering through today and into tonight. A similar scenario is expected later this evening into Sunday morning, but not as extensive. Otherwise, VFR continues across the remainder of the area, with widespread breezy afternoon winds, and a few afternoon cumulus buildups expected over northern California.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, July 4, 2026...Gusty north winds will persist into early next week, maintaining steep to very steep seas. Advisory level winds will persist south of Cape Blanco and maintain steep seas south of Port Orford this morning. Conditions worsen this afternoon into Sunday as north winds increase. Steep seas will return to areas north of Cape Blanco with very steep seas developing south of Cape Blanco and beyond 5 nm from shore. There could be a brief period of gale force gusts this afternoon south of Gold Beach between 10 and 30 nm from shore. These conditions are likely to persist through Sunday evening, then improve Monday into Wednesday as north winds weaken.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.