textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers are possible late this afternoon and early evening but these should be very isolated in nature with little rainfall

* Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wed and Thurs afternoon/evening with the main threats being lightning and gusty erratic outflow winds

* Temperatures warm through the weekend with above normal temperatures expected

DISCUSSION

Water vapor imagery depicts an area of low pressure over the state of Washington. Models are very consistent with bringing this low south, eventually cutting off from the mean flow, and meandering over the forecast area through Friday before this low moves eastward. This low will help support showers and thunderstorms over the next few days before those chances decrease on Friday as the low starts to exit the region.

For today, the low will just begin to settle in over the forecast area, eventually cutting off from the main flow later tonight. We will have chances for showers late this afternoon and through the overnight hours as the low starts to settle in over the area. While an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, this chance is low and these should be mostly showers in nature. Given the low isn't moving, these chances will persist overnight for eastside area. Very little rainfall is anticipated with any showers that happen to develop.

For tomorrow, two opposing jet streaks will be noted on the northwest side and southeast side of this low. These will help maintain the low over the forecast area. The upper jet on the northwest side (stronger of the two), along with added moisture, will help develop showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. The center of the low will shift slightly south and southwest due to the stronger of the jets steering it south. This orientation will develop showers/thunderstorms on the eastside, and the flow should bring these chances over the Cascades and into some westside areas. The question is of course how much of this will be downsloped on the westside. DCAPE values due suggest that a couple storms could potentially produce strong outflow gusts near 45 mph. This could become more complicated if terrain helps induce stronger outflows. Wednesday does appear to be the higher risk day between Wed/Thur for both lightning and strong outflow gusts, but a lot will depend on activity Wednesday as there wont be much airmass change.

On Thursday, there is some question as to how much the atmosphere will be worked over as this low remains in place without an airmass change. That said, CAPE will continue to be present, and the thinking is we will see continued chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. These chances will be primary for areas along/near the Cascades, northern California, and eastside areas. Not expecting much--if any--activity for westside areas. Similar threats involving lightning and gusty outflow potential albeit slightly less of a threat than Wednesday.

The low starts to exit on Friday, and this will be replaced with high pressure over the forecast area through the weekend. This will resulting above normal temperatures this weekend, including the potential for lower 90s across some westside valleys.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)

TAFS will start out with plenty of sunshine and mostly clear skies for the terminals, but high clouds will start to infiltrate into the region this afternoon. Expecting another marine stratus layer to bring IFR/LIFR conditions to KOTH overnight through Wednesday morning. However, inland sites are not expecting any low to mid level cloud decks. Need to consider rain chances this evening for KLMT, but at this time confidence was not high enough to include in this TAF cycle, but there is a small chance (20-25%) to see a shower or isolated thunderstorm after sunset and possibly through Wednesday morning. May reevaluate and add this mention in subsequent TAFs.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas will continue through this evening. Strongest winds and steepest seas are expected south of Gold Beach and beyond 5 nm from shore through tonight. Steep seas will expand northward tonight maintaining steep seas through Wednesday evening for all area waters. Seas and winds lower by Thursday.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356- 376.