textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable warmth, dry conditions, and afternoon breezes remain in the forecast for much of the week.

* Thunderstorm chances over northern Klamath County continue today and into Monday or Tuesday, but in the 5-10% ranges.

* A cutoff low moving over the area on Friday could bring gusty winds and thunderstorms, but details remain coarse.

DISCUSSION

Aside from some high clouds and marine stratus, activity is absent across northern California and southern Oregon this morning. With flow aloft remaining from the southwest and the air staying fairly dry, there's little expectation for drastic changes in the near term. Thunderstorm activity on Saturday afternoon and evening was minimal, with only a couple stray pulse cells over higher terrain. Expectations are similar for today, with SPC CAM paintballs showing a few cells exceeding 40 dBz over northern Klamath county at most as upper level disturbances draw. on nearby monsoonal moisture. If thunderstorms develop, erratic gusty winds and lightning are possible as well as localized rainfall.

The general pattern continues into Monday, with lingering thunderstorm chances in northern Klamath and eastern Douglas counties near 10%. For other areas across the CWA, these upper disturbances may bring periods of elevated afternoon and evening breezes. Overall, Monday's weather will be very similar to today's.

For Tuesday through Thursday, guidance suggests that a ridge over the southern United States will nudge closer to the area. This will reduce thunderstorm chances even farther, although they're not technically absent from the forecast. Temperatures may rise a few degrees, but should safely stay away hazardous levels.

A cutoff low lingering over the Pacific looks to swing over the forecast area on Friday. This feature may bring cooler temperatures, gusty southerly winds, and rain showers or thunderstorms. Possible outcomes for this activity towards the end of the week remains coarse, so describing specific details remains complicated. -TAD

AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs

Marine stratus is bringing IFR/LIFR levels to coastal areas as well as MVFR ceilings into the Umpqua Valley. Marine stratus is expected to clear later this morning, bringing VFR levels across the area. VFR levels should continue through the rest of the TAF period as upper level clouds move over the area. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 330 AM PDT Sunday, August 14, 2026

Light north winds will persist tonight before trending higher this afternoon into Monday. Conditions will become hazardous to small crafts with gusts to 30 knots 10 to 20 nm offshore south of Cape Blanco. Winds will ease a bit before increasing again Tuesday evening.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.