textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION

There is plenty of coastal stratus on satellite this morning with some scattered mid level cumulus for yesterday's convection east of the Cascades. With the thermal trough moving farther inland, we'll see that coastal stratus linger most of the day along the coast and some cooler temperatures there.

Farther inland, persistence is the name of the game with some showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon along the California and Oregon border. The NBM had the PoPs around 10%, although we increased them up to 15 to mention thunderstorms in the gridded forecast. The ECMWF ENS members are all showing something brewing along the California Oregon border this afternoon. With some lingering instability, we'll likely see isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Zonal flow will continue with some embedded disturbances in this flow pattern. Temperatures don't budge much, even with some onshore flow west of the Cascades. The coast will be notably cooler compared to locations farther inland. Some locations east of the Cascades should still be well into the lower 80's.

A deeper trough will approach the region on Memorial Day and we'll see some notable changes in the weather. Models and ensemble members are in good consensus with a cold front arriving in the afternoon and evening along the coast. Some locations will stay dry through Memorial day, although locations along the coast will see rain. As for areas farther inland, it's a little more uncertain. Medford has a 40% chance of rain during the evening hours 5pm-11pm.

It will also be breezy ahead of the front, especially east of the Cascades with gusts around 30 to 35 knots. Forecast soundings support deep mixing up to 600mb with lapse rates around 10C/km. Winds up that high should easily be in the 30 to 35 knot range. Some gusts to 40 mph seem fairly likely through the afternoon and evening hours in Lake County.

After that, the low looks to become cut off around the region. The persistent chance for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will continue through much of the week. Given the shear profile, it might be a lot of pop up showers over the higher terrain. Overall, beneficial rainfall for the region given how dry it has been this winter and even the Spring.

-Smith

AVIATION

23/12Z TAFS

Areas of IFR/LIFR will persist tonight along the coast and into the Coquille Valley this morning. Inland, mainly clear skies with some scattered cumulus for the thunderstorms on Friday.

Moving through the day, IFR/MVFR will linger along the coast before the clouds burn off by the afternoon hours. We'll see more cumulus build ups with isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly around the Oregon and California border.

Then, expect areas of IFR/MVFR to redevelop along the coast later this evening into tonight, mainly from Cape Blanco north.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Friday, May 21, 2026

The pattern will ease some this weekend as an upper trough pushes in from the NW, but conditions will remain hazardous to small craft Saturday through Sunday morning for all waters. Could be a brief break Sunday afternoon/night, but models continue to show another trough moving through Memorial Day. The strength and timing of this trough are still somewhat uncertain, but it could bring periods of rain and gusty winds followed by a larger WNW swell on Tuesday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-370.