textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation and marine discussions updated.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 224 PM PDT Tue Apr 21 2026/

Key Points:

* Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today * Thunderstorm chance (15-30%) peak through 5 PM * Drying trend begins Thursday and through most of the weekend * Warm, above normal temperatures Thursday through this weekend

Current radar has showers coming along I-5 in Siskiyou County and through the Rogue Valley. There are also showers reaching Douglas County. The upper low is starting to dig into the west coast and will bring thunderstorm chances with it. Forecast CAPEs are still on track to reach 100-150 J/kg through 5 PM, and this will be focused on the Rogue Valley (20-30%), but most areas will have at least a 15- 25% chance for the next few hours. Forecast rainfall is near 0.25"- 0.50" for more areas west of the Cascades (except the immediate coast) between 11 AM to 11 PM today.

The showers and thunderstorms will continue to track northward this afternoon. Coverage will be the greatest into this evening, but this will include mostly shower activity as thunderstorm chances decrease. Overnight snow levels will decrease to ~4,500', and through tomorrow morning another 1"-3" is possible with 4"-6" possible in higher terrain near Crater Lake and portions of the Marble mountains.

Wednesday's rainfall will be limited and scattered, and most locations will see less than 0.15" of new rainfall between 5 AM Wednesday and the rest of the day. More mixing is forecast through Wednesday, and this will bring stronger westerly winds to the surface. There is a 70-85% probability for wind gusts east of the Cascades to reach 30 mph, and this could start as early as 5 AM in northern Lake County.

By Thursday the upper low will move east out of the area and drier conditions return. Slightly above normal temperatures will be present through the long term as well. The latest runs show a slight increase in rain returning Saturday afternoon for Northern California and east side. Disagreement in the models come later Sunday, and this will be monitored. -Hermansen

AVIATION...22/06Z TAFs

The upper level low will track eastward and shower intensity and coverage should decrease overnight into Wednesday morning. For inland areas, a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions area expected overnight and Wednesday morning with local IFR as well as mountain obscurations. Along the coast, widespread MVFR is expected overnight and Wednesday morning. Then, VFR conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening with MVFR persisting along the coast and areas of higher mountain obscurations.

MARINE...Updated 1130 PM PDT Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Below advisory seas continue overnight into Wednesday as a low pressure system gradually moves inland. Increasing northwest swell follows Wednesday night into Thursday, along with a period of increased south winds which will push conditions just into Small Craft Advisory north of Coos Bay. Additionally, north winds will increase over the waters Thursday and Friday as swell persists. This pattern will result in steep seas in most of the area, especially in the waters south of Cape Blanco on Thursday evening into Friday.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Wednesday to 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.