textproduct: Medford

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion updated.

DISCUSSION

A shortwave ridge passing over northern California and southern Oregon will produce calm, mostly clear weather for the rest of today. Daytime highs will warm slightly from Monday's temperatures, but clouds will steadily increase across the area as the next system approaches.

As this cold front approaches, some coastal showers will begin to move into the area this evening, which we can already see in Radar imagery offshore this afternoon. More widespread rainfall is expected on Wednesday. Coastal cities look to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, while coastal ranges could see around 2 inches. Rainfall in the Umpqua Valley is forecast to be between 0.75 and 1 inch, with other valleys and basins seeing lower amounts through Wednesday.

With snow levels expected to hover at 4500-5500 feet from the front's arrival through Wednesday morning, winter impacts look to be limited to the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for areas near and north of Crater Lake and at elevations above 5000 feet from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, given that snowfall in this area is expected to make travel hazardous. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast over the Cascades on Wednesday. Current SPC guidance shows around a 90 percent chance for snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour Wednesday morning into early in the afternoon, and 40 to 50 percent chance for a brief period of 2 inches per hour late in the morning.

Also, gusty winds are expected over elevated terrain and the usual exposed areas on Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. With mid-level model winds approaching 55 kts, gusts along Winter Rim/Summer Lake and the Warner Mountains could reach up to 55 mph in that late Wednesday morning-early afternoon timeframe. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected to be more widespread across east side areas.

Activity across the area eases on Wednesday evening, but a cold air mass looks to bring impactful overnight low temperatures for west side valleys. The Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and western Klamath County valleys are all forecast to see lows from the mid 20s to low 30s on these nights. These temperatures would bring chances of frost or freezing conditions. East of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the mid teens to low 20s.

Chilly nights aside, Thursday looks to be a quieter day. While snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet in the morning, declining activity will minimize the chance of impactful winter conditions at lower elevations. Another shortwave ridge looks to bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday. Long-term deterministic imagery is showing more agreement of a low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest late this weekend into early next week, bringing periods of southwest or southerly flow. While details are still coarse, the tight pressure gradients aloft in imagery tend to indicate stronger winds, and southerly flow patterns tend to deliver moderate to heavy precipitation to the Mount Shasta area and coastal terrain. Details remain coarse for this timeframe, so stay tuned for additional details on continuing active weather.

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)

A front will pass through the region tonight and Wednesday. This will result in widespread precipitation through Wednesday afternoon. As a result, MVFR conditions will likely become common across the area. Areas of IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected along the coast late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Probabilities were not high enough to include IFR (ceilings/visibilities) for inland sites at this time, but there is an 8%-18% chance for IFR conditions inland. Widespread mountain obscurations are expected tonight through Wednesday.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Seas will remain below advisory level through early this afternoon. However, a front will start passing through the region later today. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas starting late this afternoon/early evening. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be briefly possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ030-031.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027.

CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.