textproduct: Medford

DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Discussion

AVIATION...14/00Z TAFs

There is currently VFR conditions with high clouds. Cumulus is also building east of the Cascades, and shower activity is in SE Modoc and S Lake counties. Smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire is expected to impact more of the Rogue Valley this afternoon before spreading eastward overnight. Another layer of clouds could produce IFR/LIFR conditions at the coast again tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 228 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

DISCUSSION...An upper trough lingering over the Pacific Ocean and anh upper ridge over the southwest and midwest remain the guiding features in area weather. With the trough slightly weakening, past elevated winds should be back to normal levels. While this keeps fire weather concerns away from Warning levels, dry conditions and diurnal afternoon breezes persist in the short term.

High resolution models show smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire will reach the Rogue Valley in the evening for today and on Tuesday, but at lower concentrations than previous days. Current observations reflect this, with reduced air quality from Central Point and Eagle Point to Ashland. Grants Pass and into the Illinois Valley are currently unaffected. Smoke may linger overnight as breezes calm.

Monsoonal moisture and atmospheric instability remain the focus on the short-term forecast, bringing chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms into midweek. For today, expectations for significant activity are low. Generally, expectations are that easternmost Modoc and Lake counties may see some isolated activity. Radar returns showing a few cells developing near the Warner Mountains while this briefing is being written match that expectation. Tuesday is more complicated. Atmospheric moisture will be preset, but model outcomes for that moisture vary. Some outcomes show a few likely insignificant cells across Modoc and Lake counties, while others show thunderstorms reaching western Siskiyou and southeast Jackson counties. The most active outcomes show storms passing over the Rogue Valley into early Wednesday morning, although that behavior is a clear outlier. For this discussion, most models lean towards some amount of pulse cells remaining east of the Cascades.

For Wednesday and Thursday, thunderstorm chances decrease but isolated activity in northern Lake or Klamath County may develop. Deterministic imagery shows a cutoff low developing in the Pacific trough then moving to the north. This behavior could bring slightly cooler daytime highs across the area on Thursday. Periods of elevated winds east may also develop east of the Cascades, but the timing of those winds is questionable as models disagree on the details of this behavior.

For Friday and beyond, dry air aloft looks to minimize precipitation chances over the weekend and there's no sign of any active weather. Daytime temperature may be a concern depending on the position of the upper ridge. Daytime highs generally look to be 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms across the area. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 145 PM PDT Monday, July 13, 2026...Steep seas continue in areas south of Cape Blanco through this evening. Conditions improve later tonight into Tuesday morning, but areas of steep seas and borderline advisory winds return later Tuesday morning and continue through at least Tuesday night. This may persist through mid-week south of Cape Blanco. These thermal trough driven winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, July 13, 2026...While only isolated thunderstorms in easternmost Modoc and Lake counties is expected tonight, possible activity on Tuesday remains a concern. While most models are showing some amount of pulse-type cells moving across Modoc, Lake, and Klamath counties, there are chances of larger storms east of the Cascades as well as activity over Siskiyou and southeast Jackson counties. The most ambitious model shows a band of storms moving from western Klamath County to northeast Lake County overnight and into Wednesday morning. As of this discussion, there's not enough confidence in the chances for widespread activity to issue a Red Flag Warning (RFW) for Abundant Lightning. There's also not the confidence to completely disregard a possible Tuesday morning Warning if there's more support for an especially active afternoon and evening. Fire Weather Zones (FWZs) 624, 625, and 285 are the most likely to be included in an issued product.

A chance for gusty winds overlapping with low RHs east of the Cascades at some point on Thursday or Friday is also worth noting. There's some disagreement on the timing and strength of these winds, and currently forecast gusts would not meet critical criteria. There is a chance that forecast gusts increasing as expected conditions become more clear. If conditions support an RFW, parts of FWZs 285 and southern 624 may be included.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.