textproduct: Medford

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable warmth continues through the forecast period, with some minor variations.

* Early morning smoke accumulation around Klamath Falls continues, with afternoon winds blowing smoke to the east.

* Dry and breezy conditions persist in the middle of the week. Slight chances of thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening. Fire weather conditions may improve into next week.

DISCUSSION

Slightly southwest flow aloft will guide weather conditions into the middle of the week for northern California and southern Oregon. This pattern will bring temperatures at or just below seasonal norms and no expectation of active weather. With ongoing dry conditions and weak upper level disturbances bringing periods of elevated breezes, fire weather conditions remain a concern but with steadily improving conditions through the forecast period.

Smoke accumulation in Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties looks to continue, given the proximity of the Wrights Spring Fire. Lighter overnight winds allow for smoke to accumulate around the fire, which has included parts of Klamath Falls down Highway 139/39 to Tulelake. Afternoon breezes will help to bring clearing in those areas later in the day, but will decrease air quality downwind into Lake and Modoc counties.

Southwest flow aloft continues into the end of the week and weekend, with high pressure centered over the southern United States nudging towards the area. Temperatures look to warm slightly but remain overall seasonal. Models have shown this flow pattern mostly cutting monsoonal moisture off from the area. However, a small upper disturbance may draw just enough moisture westward to support isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This chance for activity has remains over western Siskiyou County, along the Cascades, and across northern Klamath and Lake counties. These chances remain slight (10- 15%) at most and continue to trend downward, as previous days showed chances of activity on Thursday.

Glancing into early next week, long-term imagery is in general agreement but questions remain. Towards the end of the weekend, a low pressure system travels south over the Pacific Ocean (between 130W and 140W), bringing southerly flow and slightly cooler temperatures. Towards the middle of next week, that low travels to the northeast and over the area. There's some disagreements in timing between deterministic imagery, and ensemble meteograms hover at 20-40% chances for precipitation at different locations into next week. As always, stay tuned for the latest updates. -TAD

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)

We continue to see very similar conditions through this cycle. This includes a marine layer that will reestablish tonight bringing IFR/LIFR conditions to KOTH overnight with relief early tomorrow afternoon (similar to today). We will also continue to see smoke from the Wrights Spring Fire impact KLMT bringing ceilings and reduced visibilities at times. There remains a lot of uncertainty with smoke forecasting due to fire activity/suppression efforts. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for other inland areas and typical diurnal breezes.

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Gusty north winds continue through Wednesday evening, with areas of gales and very steep seas south of Port Orford and steep seas to the north. Winds will begin to ease Thursday, with north winds at Small Craft Advisory strength south of Port Orford. But, with the combination of wind wave and fresh swell, steep seas are likely to persist across the area into Friday morning. Weak winds and low seas are expected for the weekend, and likely into early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-370-376.