textproduct: Medford

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...24/18Z TAFs

IFR ceilings in the Umpqua Basin are quickly eroding this morning, and should improve to VFR by 19z. An area of MVFR ceilings persists just along the coast south of Gold Beach, and should also clear to VFR by 19-20z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail and will do so through the TAF period. Expect a return of similar conditions tonight to the same places as this morning. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 452 AM PDT Fri Apr 24 2026/

DISCUSSION...This forecast period is largely defined by the presence and location of an omega block pattern, with an upper ridge currently over the Pacific pinned between two low pressure systems, one west of Alaska and the other over central Canada and the northern United States.

Currently, northwest flow aloft is allowing for generally seasonable conditions across the area. Areas of localized frosty temperatures and patchy fog are possible in west side valleys, but these are not expected to become widespread. West side valleys will see a few degrees of warming from Thursday's daytime highs, bringing low to mid 70s for most of these lower elevation areas. Coastal areas will also see warming, with high temperatures expected to reach the mid 60s. Areas east of the Cascades stay cooler, with temperatures in the high 50s to mid 60s.

Unsettled air looks to swing around the continental low pressure system and move over the area through Saturday and Sunday. This looks to bring a few degrees of cooling during the day, with the possibility of localized frost conditions for some west side valleys again. While this disturbance won't bring widespread rainfall, the instability is supporting thunderstorm chances on both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. For Saturday, these chances are slight (10-20%) and limited to southeastern Siskiyou and southern Modoc counties. These areas may see isolated showers Saturday night into Sunday morning. There's some disagreement for activity on Sunday, with GFS outcomes showing CAPE values of 300-500 J/kg over Douglas County and 100-300 J/kg over most other areas, which could bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms over a wider area. ECMWF modeling keeps activity generally to Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Conversely, ECMWF imagery shows some light showers across the area on Monday while GFS modeling shows the instability dissipating, keeping the area dry. Severe activity is not expected.

The upper pattern shifts eastward through next week, with the upper ridge passing to the north and a cutoff low passing to the south. With the flow splitting around the area, a period of more stable weather is possible. Meager precipitation chances linger over the Cascades and Lake County on Tuesday, with the rest of the week looking dry across the area. Temperatures warm into midweek, and may remain warm into the end of the week. Lomg-term meteograms hint at some form of activity in early May, but agreement on timing and quantity is sparse. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Friday, April 24, 2026...Gusty northerly winds continue to build steep seas in all area waters today, with the strongest winds south of Cape Blanco. Winds and seas look to reach below advisory level late Saturday morning. Slight chances of marine showers are present Sunday.

No significant weather is expected early next week. Northerly winds will persist while a low northwest swell combines with a fresh, shorter period NNW swell. Steep seas could return around mid-week when there could be an uptick in northerly winds and an increasing northwest swell moves into the waters.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.