textproduct: Miami - South Florida

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A weak mid level disturbance currently over the Bahamas will slowly try to slide southwestward under the mid level ridge that has been in place over the Florida Peninsula during the past several days. At the surface, high pressure centered in the Atlantic will extend westward across the region and into the Gulf. With the surface ridge axis remaining just to the north, a rather light synoptic easterly wind flow will remain in place. With the mid level disturbance being on the weaker side, it will not have too much of an affect on the sensible weather pattern today across South Florida as the mid level heights will not lower much and 500mb temperatures will not be drastically cooler. The latest guidance shows 500mb temperatures hovering between -7.5 to -8.5C throughout the day.

Moisture levels today look slightly higher when compared to the past several days as PWAT values range between 1.7 to 1.9 inches to start the day before gradually increasing especially over Southwest Florida this afternoon to around 2 inches. This will all result in convective development being triggered mainly by the sea breezes as they develop and push inland. With the steering flow aloft becoming a bit weaker today and moisture gradually increasing, the latest CAMs are support of some isolated shower and storm activity developing along the east coast this morning before gradually shifting towards the interior and west as the afternoon progresses. Storms that develop earlier in the afternoon may form closer to the east coast metro areas due to the lighter steering flow in place. With ample moisture in place this afternoon combined with sufficient instability provided by diurnal heating (SB CAPE values ranging between 2200-3000 J/kg and DCAPE values of 900-1100 J/kg), some of thunderstorms will have the possibility of becoming strong again over the interior. These storms will form where sea breeze boundaries and other mesoscale boundaries collide and will have the potential to produce heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds.

Heading into Thursday, the main change in the weather pattern across South Florida will be a moisture surge pushing in from the east which will increase PWAT values area wide and the latest guidance suite and forecast model soundings show values of 1.9 to 2.1 inches across most of the region during the afternoon and evening hours. The mid level disturbance will start to curve northwestward into the southeastern Gulf, however, due to the weakness of this feature along with it trying to push further into the Gulf away from the peninsula, it will not provide much of an extra source of lift and convection will mainly once again be driven by the sea breezes. With the added moisture coming in from the east, this may help to enhance coverage of showers and storms as the day progresses, however, convection should follow the typical diurnal summertime pattern. Showers and storms will be possible in the morning across the east coast before shifting towards the interior and west in the afternoon and evening with southeasterly steering flow in place. With 500mb temperatures remaining between -8 and -9C, some strong thunderstorm development will be possible especially over the interior and Southwest Florida in the afternoon. The strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.

High temperatures today and Thursday will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. Heat index values will generally range between 100 and 105 across most areas each day, however, peak heat index values of 105-108 cannot be entirely ruled out in the afternoon across portions of Southwest Florida. The time spent at these values will be rather short lived and should negate the need for heat advisories during this time frame.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

For the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the two main features that will dominate the weather pattern across the region will be a strengthening mid level ridge becoming centered over the Florida Peninsula as well as a surface area of high pressure in the Atlantic extending westward over the region as well. As the surface high over the area strengthens a bit and the pressure gradient tightens up, southeasterly winds may increase heading into Thursday night and Friday before becoming rather light again heading into the upcoming weekend. Ultimately, this will result in a typical summertime pattern continuing across South Florida on Friday and into the upcoming weekend with convection being mainly driven by sea breeze development. The usual diurnal pattern of convection for this time of year will remain in place as shower and thunderstorm activity starts to develop over the local waters and the east coast during the morning hours before shifting towards the interior and Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could still become strong each afternoon mainly over Southwest Florida where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide and lift is maximized. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend will generally range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida.

Moving into the early portion of next week, the forecast starts to become a little bit more uncertain as the mid level ridge pushes northwestward into the Gulf and expands northward into the Midwest as well as the Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, another mid level disturbance to the east will begin to push towards the Southeast coast during this time frame. While the general diurnal pattern of convection will look to remain in place, with rather light steering flow aloft combined with light winds trying to become more southerly at the surface, this may help increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. The exact details still need to be ironed out and will depend heavily on the track and evolution of this mid level disturbance as it pushes towards the Southeast coast. For now, the latest forecast increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame, however, the highest chances each afternoon are kept over the interior and Southwest Florida. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures early next week will generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours. Light wind flow will increase out of the east to around 10 kts after 15z. Scattered showers and storms may develop over the east coast terminals bringing periods of MVFR and IFR conditions during the late morning and early afternoon hours before storms push towards the interior and west. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WNW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Showers and thunderstorms may also affect KAPF later this afternoon into this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A gentle east northeasterly wind flow will prevail across the Atlantic waters today. These winds will then become moderate as they shift towards the southeast for Thursday and Friday. A lighter and more variable wind flow will take place across the Gulf waters through the end of the week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the end of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day during this time frame.

BEACHES

Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

As southeasterly winds increase towards the end of the week, the rip current risk may become elevated across the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 79 90 80 / 40 20 50 30 West Kendall 90 76 91 77 / 40 20 50 30 Opa-Locka 92 79 92 80 / 40 20 50 30 Homestead 90 78 90 79 / 40 20 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 89 80 / 40 20 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 90 79 90 80 / 40 20 50 30 Pembroke Pines 93 81 93 82 / 40 20 50 30 West Palm Beach 90 78 91 79 / 40 20 50 20 Boca Raton 91 78 92 79 / 40 20 50 30 Naples 93 77 91 77 / 60 40 60 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.