textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 728 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop this afternoon along the sea breeze boundaries, with coverage most likely along the East Coast metro area. - A cold front will approach the region later tonight, bringing increasing rain chances through Monday evening, followed by hazardous marine conditions. - Patchy fog could develop across inland South Florida early this morning, resulting in lower visibilities.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

An upper-level trough will slide across the Eastern Seaboard today, finally breaking the ridge over the Gulf and weakening the area of high pressure near the surface. Concurrently, an attendant surface low associated with the aforementioned upper-level trough will exit northward into the Canadian expanse, and in doing so will drag a cold front south along the Florida peninsula. Surface analysis and satellite imagery place this front currently over the Southeast, and high-res model guidance shows it reaching northern Florida by mid- day.

Ahead of the front, moisture will continue to pool near the surface and up to the 700mb level (with PWATs reaching the 1.3-1.6 inch range), while easterly winds will slacken out of the southeast. This will allow for the Gulf breeze to further push inland and meet the Atlantic seabreeze over the East Coast metro area, shifting the location where isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop to the interior and western reaches of the East Coast metro area. NBM came in too low once again with this run, so we added PoPs and PotThunder up to the 20-30% range to account for this possibility.

The front is forecast to reach South Florida by early Monday morning, bringing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the East Coast metro areas. Intermittent rainfall activity could persist through the day, with rainfall accumulations up to 1 inch possible, and a 1 in 10 chance of up to 2-3 inches over the 24 hour period. The front should clear the area by Monday evening, and is forecast to eventually stall out along the Florida Straits. Rain chances will gradually decrease overnight.

High temperatures could reach the mid to upper 80s, and potentially the 90s during peak diurnal heating. However, cloud coverage is forecast to increase throughout the day ahead of the frontal approach; this could help temper the high temperatures by a few degrees. Conditions will cool down on Monday as the front drops through and convection develops along the East Coast. Highs will peak in the low 80s along the East Coast, but could rise up to the upper 80s across southwest FL where rain will be minimal.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Most model guidance shows the aforementioned cold front stalling out over the Florida Straits during the latter half of the week. High pressure will build behind the front, allowing for the pressure gradient between both features to tighten and enhance the northeasterly wind flow across the area. Northeasterly winds ranging from 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts will be possible across the CWA on Tuesday and Wednesday. Concurrently, dry, cool air will filter back over the region behind the front, with PWATs dropping to the 0.5-0.8 inch range, well below normal for this time of year. Temperatures will return to more seasonable levels with high in the upper 70s and lower 80s each day. Lows each night could dip into the upper 50s across the interior, and down to the 60s along the coasts.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards the back half of the week. Most of the guidance shows an upper level shortwave developing on the back of the aforementioned trough, right over the southeastern US. This shortwave would drop across the Gulf waters and reach the FL peninsula sometime Thursday into Friday. With the stalled frontal boundary over the FL Straits and this additional forcing mechanism in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms could increase once again. However, some of the GEFS ensemble members also show a surface low or weak trough developing over the Gulf in tandem with the shortwave, moving east or south and approaching the peninsula. This solution could bring higher rainfall totals across the region during the period (up to 2-4 inches of rain over a 48 hour period). While still generally unlikely (and supported only by a minority of the model ensembles), this solution, and the entirety of the forecast for the end of the week, will need to be monitored for any changes or increasing confidence. The NBM mostly supports a drier solution for the area. So for now, we're keeping low-end PoPs and QPFs in the forecast for the latter half of the week.

Conditions warm back up as we head into the weekend, with highs back in the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will increase out of the SE after 16z across the east coast terminals and will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible near the east coast terminals after 18z. Periods of MVFR or IFR may occur if storms directly impact the terminals. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WNW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A cold front will slide along the Florida peninsula today, reaching South Florida overnight into Monday morning. Ahead of the front, winds over the local Atlantic waters will become light and southerly, while winds over the Gulf waters increase up to 10-15 kts out of the northwest. A more dramatic wind surge will be possible once the front clears the area Monday into Tuesday, with hazardous conditions developing and seas building up to 8-12 ft over the Gulf stream by Wednesday. Gulf seas will range from 3-6 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local Atlantic waters with the frontal passage on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 86 72 83 70 / 20 20 60 30 West Kendall 88 68 85 66 / 30 20 60 30 Opa-Locka 88 72 85 68 / 30 20 60 30 Homestead 87 71 85 70 / 20 10 50 30 Fort Lauderdale 85 72 81 70 / 20 20 60 30 N Ft Lauderdale 85 72 80 69 / 30 20 70 20 Pembroke Pines 89 73 85 70 / 30 20 60 30 West Palm Beach 86 71 80 68 / 20 20 60 10 Boca Raton 85 72 80 69 / 20 20 70 20 Naples 85 69 87 65 / 10 0 30 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.