textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 347 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Minor coastal flooding will remain possible during periods of high tide across all coastal areas of South Florida through Sunday morning.

- Breezy onshore winds will keep a threat of dangerous rip currents at all area beaches today, with the greatest risk along the coast of Collier and Palm Beach counties.

- Hazardous to cautionary marine conditions will continue across the local waters of South Florida today before winds subside overnight into early Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

07z RTMA in tandem with GOES mid-level water vapor imagery reveal that South Florida is located in the center of quite the active atmospheric pattern in our geographical vicinity today. After making landfall in the western Florida Panhandle earlier tonight, the capture, elongation, and eventual alignment/absorption of the residual vorticity of Isaias and the lobe of mid-level troughing that is currently across the southern United States is occurring in short order. To the east, mid-level ridging situated in the western Atlantic continues to build into the region with 500mb observed temperature values on the 00z MFL sounding residing between the 75th- 90th percentile for this time of year. Without getting into more specific details about the additional features out there at the moment (Hurricane Simon's outflow and the upper level low to our south over the Caribbean), let's take a closer look at the more important mechanisms behind our forecast for the remainder of the weekend. The infusion of baroclinic dynamics and vorticity elongation has resulted in Isaias becoming post-tropical in nature, with an attendant warm front lifting further away from the Florida Peninsula. However, even though we are now far removed from the departing boundary, South Florida remains firmly in the warm sector of the departing system which will feature breezy to at times gusty southerly surface flow and ample moisture advection across South Florida today. This continuation of breezy conditions is also in large part due to an expansive surface ridge that remains in place across the western Atlantic waters, facilitating a pressure gradient across the region that will gradually relax tonight into early Sunday. With Post Tropical Cyclone Isaias continuing to drift northwards away from the region, an attendant frontal boundary is forecast to gradually slide eastward across the Gulf today into Sunday.

Continued southerly flow to the east of the frontal boundary will continue to usher in deep tropical moisture (precipitable water values of 2.0 to 2.2 inches), which will support coastal showers along both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts this morning. A more robust diurnal round of showers and storms is forecast to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours. Diurnal heating may veer southerly winds slightly onshore during the afternoon hours as a meso low develops onshore in a classic sea-breeze pattern. A high moisture, high instability environment will set the stage for convection to develop along sea-breeze boundaries before background southerly surface flow results in a foci of activity residing across the northern half of the region (Palm Beach County and Lake Okeechobee). Warm 500mb temperatures, meager low and mid-level lapse rates, and mid-level ridging aloft will keep the threat of strong to severe convection minimal. However, with such a deep warm cloud layer and saturated atmospheric profile, a signal exists in HREF/REFS guidance for an isolated swath of higher precipitation (2- 3") values this afternoon. Predictability remains low but mesoscale paintball probabilities show the greatest odds of isolated higher rainfall totals occurring to the east of Lake Okeechobee over portions of Palm Beach County. If 2-3" inches of rainfall occurs over an urban area in a short period of time, localized flooding could be possible. Outside of the cooling influences of showers and storms, it's going to be a warm, breezy, and muggy day across South Florida with peak forecasted temperatures in the low 90s and heat indices (apparent temperatures) forecast to reach the 100-105F range.

A bit of a more challenging forecast on Sunday as a pocket of drier air pushes into South Florida from the east as surface ridging continues to enhance. However at the same time, the frontal boundary (and deep moisture pooled along it) previously in place across the Gulf will also slide southeastward across the peninsula. Uncertainty remains high for the exact placement of the frontal boundary as well as the timing/arrival of the pocket of drier air moving in across the eastern half of the region. Fluctuations in the forecast remain possible as the exact timing and placement of these features is not set in stone. Regardless, the latest forecast features a gradient of lower rain chances across the southeastern half of South Florida on Sunday with a maxima in precipitation chances across southwestern Florida and west of Lake Okeechobee. Convective parameters once again appear lackluster with the main concern remaining isolated swaths of 1-3" of rainfall in short periods of time. Temperatures will trend lower closer to normal (mid to upper 80s) across the northern half of the region, likely due to cloud cover and convective initiation. Temperatures across the southern half of the region will remain in the low 90s if the drier solution currently depicted remains in the cards.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

As a mid-level trough pushes offshore of the northeastern United States, the stout mid-level ridge in place across the western Atlantic waters will flatten and lose influence over our region by Monday morning. The enhancement of a surface low offshore of the northeastern United States will provide enough forcing for the aforementioned frontal boundary across Central Florida and the Gulf to slowly slide southward across South Florida during the day. With all of the best dynamics now well removed from the region, convective activity on Monday is forecast to be much more sparse in nature. That being said, maximized ascent and residual moisture along the boundary could still set the stage for some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. High temperatures on Monday will rise into the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading towards Tuesday and Wednesday, a much drier air mass will push into the region behind the front as high pressure builds back into the area. This will keep chances of showers and storms extremely limited during this time frame, and with the drier air and lower dewpoints anticipated, there will be a noticeable drop in humidity during the middle of the week. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will still remain above climatological normals for this time of year.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 132 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Light SErly flow will will prevail through daybreak at all terminals before surface winds enhance and veer more southerly by mid morning. Rounds of SHRA/TSRA will be possible across the region today with the highest confidence of daytime activity being focused near Lake Okeechobee. However, forecast models show SHRA/TSRA redeveloping tonight into early Sunday. Have maintained VCSH/VCTS in the TAFs for this forecast cycle, erratic wind shifts may be possible in and around SHRA/TSRA activity if it impacts terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Ongoing hazardous marine conditions will continue across the local Gulf waters through this afternoon as a fresh to strong southerly breeze gradually subsides. Across the Atlantic waters, a moderate southerly breeze will remain in place today. This will maintain cautionary conditions for all Atlantic waters before surface winds across the Atlantic waters also lessens late in the day. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range between 2-3 feet today into Sunday while seas across the Gulf waters will reach up to 6-7 feet today before decreasing into the 2-3 feet tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters through the remainder of the weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

As breezy onshore flow continues, a high risk of rip currents will remain at all Collier and Palm Beach County beaches today. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across all other Atlantic Coast beaches. Minor coastal flooding will remain possible across all coastal locations of South Florida during each high tide cycle today and for the remainder of the weekend due to King Tides associated with the new moon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 91 80 91 78 / 40 30 20 10 West Kendall 91 79 91 77 / 30 30 20 10 Opa-Locka 91 80 91 78 / 40 30 20 10 Homestead 91 80 91 78 / 30 30 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 90 78 / 50 30 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 90 78 / 50 30 30 10 Pembroke Pines 91 80 91 77 / 40 30 30 10 West Palm Beach 91 79 90 77 / 70 30 50 20 Boca Raton 90 80 90 77 / 60 30 30 10 Naples 89 78 88 76 / 50 50 60 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069-168.

AM...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ656- 657-676.