textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 702 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 - Scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas. Some of these storms could become strong and could contain gusty winds, heavy downpours, and small hail.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday afternoon as a weakening frontal boundary pushes through the region.

- Above normal temperatures are possible heading into the middle and latter portion of the upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A mid level trough will remain near the region through the rest of the weekend and heading into Monday as well. Several shortwave impulses of energy will pass over the Florida Peninsula and then round the base of the trough just offshore in the western Atlantic during this time frame. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain draped over Northern and Central Florida today while a broad area of low pressure begins to take shape later in the day well off to the northeast off the Carolina coastline. This frontal boundary will allow for the surface wind flow to generally take on a south to southwesterly direction throughout today. The sea breezes will once again develop this afternoon, however, this time around the Gulf breeze will be the dominate one as the east coast sea breeze gets pinned over the metro areas. While the sea breeze boundaries will be the main feature for convective initiation today, the combination of several mid level shortwaves nearby as well as a surface frontal boundary just to the north of the region could provide extra sources of lift for convective development. With moisture pooling over the region out ahead of the frontal boundary, the focus for thunderstorm development will be over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas this afternoon where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide. With 500mb temperatures remaining between -10 and -11C combined with DCAPE values of 700 to 850 J/kg this afternoon, the ingredients are there to support a few strong thunderstorms that are able to take advantage of the lift along boundary collisions. These storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours, gusty winds as well as some small hail. High temperatures today will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas, however, lower 90s will be possible over the interior areas along and south of Alligator Alley.

As the surface low continues to move further northeast in the Atlantic tonight into Monday, the surface frontal boundary will continue to weaken as it slowly pushes through the region. While winds at the surface will remain rather light and sea breeze driven on Monday, winds across the mid to upper levels will become more north northwesterly as the day progresses. This may help to introduce some drier air aloft later in the day over the region. Moisture will continue to pool over the area in the lower levels as the front pushes through which will be conducive for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop once again during the afternoon hours. While chances of strong thunderstorm development will still remain on the lower side, an isolated strong thunderstorm or two cannot be entirely ruled out during the late afternoon hours where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide. The strongest storms will once again be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures on Monday will generally range from the mid 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, a rather strong mid level ridge centered over the southwest Gulf will sprawl eastward over the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the same time, a surface area of high pressure will begin to build in from the north on Tuesday before centering over the region on Wednesday. Outside of an isolated shower on Tuesday due to some lingering lower level moisture in place from what is left of the frontal boundary, many areas will remain dry throughout most of Tuesday and into Wednesday. With east to southeasterly wind flow in place during this time frame, high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will generally rise into the mid 80s along the east coast and into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

During the second half of the week, uncertainty in the forecast still remains on the higher side as a deepening mid level low/trough complex dives down into the Great Lakes region as well as the Northeast and Mid Atlantic States during this time frame. This deepening mid level low/trough complex will help to flatten the ridge over the region creating more of a zonal flow across South Florida by the end of the week. At the surface, low pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic Coastline on Thursday and the cold front associated with this system will extend southwestward back into Northern and Central Florida. The uncertainty in the forecast has to do with the forward momentum of the front as guidance is showing signals that it could stall somewhere across the Lake Okeechobee region. What is more certain, is that out ahead of this front, winds will become south southwesterly on Thursday and Friday creating very warm temperatures area wide heading into the second half of the week. If the front remains to the north of the region, dry conditions will prevail and rain chances will remain rather limited. If this front were to push further south into the region before stalling, this could introduce some chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon heading into the second half of the week. As of now, the forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps the area dry during this time frame, however, if future models runs trend towards pushing the front further south, chances of showers and thunderstorms may increase during this time period. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be above climatological normals as upper 80s and lower 90s will be common across most of the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Light and variable winds will increase out of the south after 15z before becoming SSE after 18z as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. Scattered showers and storms will develop later this afternoon and could impact the east coast terminals bringing periods of MVFR or IFR as well as gusty and erratic winds. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW after 15z as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will develop across the local waters today out ahead of an approaching front. These winds will become variable on Monday as the front slowly pushes through the region before becoming east northeasterly on Tuesday as high pressure starts to build back into the region. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through early next week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the weekend and most of Monday. These seas will then build to 3 to 5 feet on Tuesday as a northeasterly swell develops behind the frontal boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across the Atlantic waters today and Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 86 71 87 72 / 30 20 20 10 West Kendall 88 67 89 68 / 30 20 10 0 Opa-Locka 88 70 88 72 / 30 20 20 10 Homestead 87 70 87 71 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 85 70 84 72 / 30 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 70 84 72 / 30 30 20 10 Pembroke Pines 89 71 89 72 / 30 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 86 68 84 71 / 30 20 20 10 Boca Raton 85 70 84 72 / 30 30 20 10 Naples 85 69 87 68 / 10 0 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.