textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 254 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Scattered showers will develop through the early evening hours, with coverage most likely across interior and Southwest FL. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms.

- High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon through the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The wet, unsettled pattern will continue for the rest of the week as South FL remains flanked by two blocks of upper level ridging over the southeast US and over the western Atlantic. Heights across the peninsula will remain a bit lower than the surrounding features thanks to the simultaneous influences of an upper level trough over the Ohio River Valley, and several subtle TUTTs approaching from the Caribbean. This setup will continue to promote moisture advection across the area, and more widespread convection each afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to show a moist atmospheric column, with PWATs back up to 2 inches or more across much of the area. With ample instability in place (in excess of 2500 J/kg), 500mb temperatures that are trending lower than they have over the past several weeks (down to -7C to -8C), and DCAPE values exceeding 700- 800 J/kg, storms will have no difficulty developing along the sea breeze boundaries each afternoon. And, given the forecast parameter space, some stronger storms could end up producing wind gusts 40-55 mph and small hail. Additionally, given the surge in moisture HREF guidance suggests 1-2 inches could fall across portion of the interior and southwest FL, with isolated 3-4 inches in some spots. Similarly to previous days, activity is most likely to start developing across the East Coast where the sea breeze moves in, then propagate inland into the late afternoon and evening hours, where coverage will be maximized.

Temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Heat indices will linger in the low 100s, but cloud coverage associated with storm activity should help mitigate values rising into the 105-110F range. That being said, today's chances for heat indices to rise above that range are slightly higher than the last couple of days given the potential of convection not firing up until after noon. Thus, short-fuse Heat Advisory could be needed later today if this other solution pans out. Overnight temperatures will also remain fairly balmy, with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s across the East Coast, and down to the mid 70s across the interior.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the extended period as the previously discussed pattern remains in place through the weekend. During this time, the upper level trough over the eastern US will deepen southward, with an associated front settling over the southeastern US. Easterly to southeasterly flow will continue across our region, with PWATs continuing to trend near normal or slightly above normal (1.9-2.1 inch range). Each afternoon could bring scattered to numerous showers and storms, starting along the East coast sea breeze boundary then proceeding inland into the late afternoon hours. Similarly to the short term period, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will all remain possible hazards.

Starting next week, once the trough and front progress eastward, models start to suggest the two flanking ridges over the US and western Atlantic will start to merge, extending across the entire region. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain likely each afternoon, with coverage maximized across the interior and southwest FL thanks to the continuing easterly flow.

Temperatures through the period will remain seasonably hot, with highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon and overnight lows in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Light and variable winds overnight become a gentle easterly/southeasterly breeze mid-morning. Scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop in the vicinity of the East Coast sites late morning/early afternoon, but confidence regarding impacts remains low. Activity decreases with nightfall, with a return to light and variable flow.

MARINE

Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Benign boating conditions will prevail across all local waters as light to moderate winds continue. Across the local Atlantic waters, easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail, while westerly winds are forecast over the local Gulf waters. Scattered showers and storms are expected each day, mainly in the morning hours and again in the late evening hours across the local waters. Locally hazardous winds and rough seas may occur near any storm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 79 92 80 / 40 20 30 30 West Kendall 92 77 92 78 / 50 20 40 30 Opa-Locka 93 79 93 80 / 50 20 30 30 Homestead 92 79 92 80 / 40 20 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 91 80 / 40 20 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 92 80 92 81 / 40 20 30 20 Pembroke Pines 91 79 92 81 / 50 20 30 30 West Palm Beach 92 78 93 79 / 50 20 40 20 Boca Raton 90 78 90 80 / 40 20 40 20 Naples 91 77 92 76 / 40 20 50 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.