textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 735 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Heat indices as high as 105-110 degrees expected each day through the end of the weekend.

- Smoke from wildfire activity in central Miami-Dade county will continue to disperse across the region, mainly in Southeast Florida. Lower air quality from wildfire smoke can be hazardous to sensitive populations.

- Increasing chances for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The remnants of Arthur can be seen tracking eastward across the southeast U.S on satellite, expected to move off the east coast. As this is happening, an upper level shortwave moves into the state pushing a surge of moisture into the area for the next couple days. Recent CAMs guidance shows isolated convection likely to start firing across interior portions of the area within the next couple hours. This convection will likely be focused along the sea breeze boundaries as they move inland. Taking a look at model soundings and current mesoanalysis data shows high amounts of DCAPE, ~1100J/Kg, around which makes for the capability of some decent downburst winds with any strong convection that can get going. Saturday afternoon shows similar conditions on model soundings with DCAPE ~1000J/Kg and good lapse rates, so would expect to see a similar risk of some downbursts.

In terms of the heat, it isn't going anywhere with a Heat Advisory today in effect through 7PM. Tomorrow could end up seeing very slightly better conditions, but a lot of that will be very dependent on how much convection we see that would bring us some relief. PoPs are generally 70-80% for interior areas and 55-65% along the coasts. Regardless, heat indices tomorrow will still be in the 105-110F range with Major Heat Risk (level 3 out of 4) so unsurprisingly another Heat Advisory is likely. High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s in the afternoon hours through the period.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Into the long term period, we can expect similar conditions to the end of the short term period with Sunday seeing high PoPs (~70-80% inland and 50-60% coastal). After Sunday, our upper level shortwave disturbance projects eastward away from the area leaving us back in the broad upper troughing regime. Additionally some surface high pressure looks to build into the Gulf for the first half of the work week. These factors will contribute to slightly drier conditions compared to the weekend. In terms of rain and thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the long term period, Pops are generally 50-60% each day mostly for interior areas. Convection would be likely to be focused along the sea breeze boundaries each day. Areas closer to the coast will see much more isolated convection, ~25-35% PoPs through the period after Sunday.

Heat will continue to be a concern through the period, with heat indices reaching the 105-110F range each day. Afternoon high temperatures don't budge much, reaching the low to mid 90s each day. Heat product issuances are likely going to be needed most days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Thunderstorms over interior South Florida look to meander eastward during the early evening, mainly impacting KPBI, where MVFR conditions may be observed. Activity will dissipate through the course of the evening, with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Slightly greater storm coverage is expected for tomorrow afternoon, so vicinity thunder has been added to most terminals, although most activity should once again focus over interior South Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the Atlantic waters today with southerly to southwesterly winds over the Gulf. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the local waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas possible with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Southeasterly winds continue across Southeast Florida today with southwesterly winds in Southwest Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late afternoon and evening with a focus for inland locations across the interior, including Alligator Alley and Big Cypress. Low-end chances for a couple of storms to drift back towards the Atlantic and Gulf coasts late in the day. Dispersions will be generally good today and again tomorrow. RH values will remain well above critical values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 92 78 93 / 20 60 30 60 West Kendall 76 93 76 94 / 20 70 30 60 Opa-Locka 78 93 78 94 / 20 70 30 60 Homestead 78 92 78 93 / 10 50 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 79 92 / 20 60 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 78 91 / 20 70 30 60 Pembroke Pines 80 95 79 95 / 20 70 30 60 West Palm Beach 78 91 77 92 / 30 80 30 60 Boca Raton 79 91 78 91 / 30 70 30 60 Naples 79 91 78 91 / 20 40 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.