textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

- The dry stretch of weather will continue across most areas through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

- Temperatures will continue on a slow moderating trend heading into the weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Mid level troughing will gradually amplify near the region through today and Saturday. Since the trough axis still looks to remain just to the east of the region, this will promote a northwesterly wind flow aloft through the first half of the weekend. At the surface, high pressure holds strong today keeping a north to northeasterly wind flow in place throughout the day. Some lower level moisture advection will slowly start to take place across the region with the northeasterly wind flow as PWAT values rise and range between 0.7 and 0.9 inches across most areas.

Heading into tonight and Saturday, a mid level vort max will gradually slide over the area or just to the east of the region. At the surface, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite are in relatively good agreement in bringing a dissipating backdoor frontal boundary through the region tonight into Saturday morning. Behind this front, a reinforcing area of high pressure quickly builds over the region on Saturday afternoon. The latest model soundings do show the very slow lower level moisture advection continuing through tonight and into Saturday as PWATs slowly continue to rise and they will hover between 0.8 and 1.0 inches through Saturday. However, with plenty of mid to upper level dry air in place combined with the surface frontal boundary being in a dissipating state, mainly dry conditions will continue through Saturday.

High temperatures today will generally range from the upper 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s elsewhere. These high temperatures will continue to moderate heading into Saturday as they will rise into the lower 80s across most of South Florida.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

During the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of next week, a mid level zonal flow gradually becomes established over the region during this this time frame. At the surface, high pressure will remain the main synoptic feature that will dominate the weather pattern across South Florida through the rest of the weekend and into early next week as it shifts into the western Atlantic. While most areas will continue to remain dry through Tuesday, there will still be lower level moisture advection taking place as the light and sea breeze driven winds on Sunday and Monday become more easterly on Tuesday. This increase in moisture may create the potential for an isolated shower or two to develop mainly across the Atlantic waters as well as the east coast along the breeze early next week. Any shower that does develop will be brief and short lived as plenty of dry air in the mid to upper levels will keep shower development low topped. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will generally remain in the lower 80s across most of the area. On Tuesday, high temperatures will range from the lower 80s along the east coast to the mid to upper 80s across the interior.

Heading towards the middle of the week, the latest guidance suite remains in relatively good agreement with mid level ridging over the Southwest Gulf gradually expanding eastward over the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will continue remain in place and South Florida will remain on the western periphery of that high. The combination of surface high pressure and the mid level ridging building in aloft, mainly dry and warm conditions will continue through the middle of the week. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally range from the lower 80s along the east coast to the mid to upper 80s over interior Southwest Florida.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the NE after 15z and will range between 5 and 10 kts through the afternoon. At KAPF, winds may shift and become more northerly during the late afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

A moderate north to northeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters today. These winds will gradually become easterly across most of the local waters on Saturday, however, over the Gulf waters they may shift and become north northwesterly in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 to 4 feet through the first half of the weekend before subsiding to 2 feet or less for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the first half of the weekend as onshore flow persists.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 66 80 66 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 80 62 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 80 65 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 79 65 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 67 79 66 / 10 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 67 80 66 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 82 66 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 80 67 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 81 67 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 81 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.