textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 309 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms today will likely favor interior areas of South Florida.

- Excessive rainfall chances increase this week as a frontal boundary stalls across central Florida.

- Higher-than-normal high tides return with the new moon later this week

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

An area of low pressure is proceeding eastward across eastern Canada early this week. An associated frontal boundary extends from the Maritimes south off the east coast of the United States across northern Florida into the northern Gulf of Mexico. With the frontal boundary moving south, it will serve as a focusing agent for abundant tropical moisture which will enable to potential for more widespread convective coverage. Another factor will be the lightening easterly flow with the surface wind flow becoming more southerly to southwesterly. This could enable repeated south to north storm motions across portions of South Florida and potentially pin any Atlantic sea breeze closer to the coast if the western component to the wind flow develops.

The Weather Prediction Center has extended the Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Tuesday further south to include the Lake Okeechobee region and portions of urban Palm Beach and Broward Counties. Many portions of the area, particularly portions of metro Palm Beach and Broward Counties already have antecedent saturation from previous rainfall last week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

As we head into the middle of the week, the area grows in the Day 3 ERO for Wednesday to include most of South Florida from the Tamiami Trail/US 41 corridor northward. The trough that had helped propel the frontal boundary south early in the week will eject into the Atlantic which will cause the boundary to settle somewhere over the central to south central peninsula of Florida. Saturation from antecedent rainfall events, slower drainage along the coast due to higher than normal high tides with the new moon, and the potential for several rounds of excessive rainfall require monitoring of the forecast through the week.

This all stands independent of an area in the southwestern Gulf that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring. This afternoon's Tropical Weather Outlook currently has a 60% chance of development through 48 hours and an 80% chance of development through the next 7 days. It is too early to know the precise impacts from this potential disturbance, but several guidance suites allow the frontal boundary to remain somewhere around the central peninsula of Florida with abundant tropical moisture capable of producing excessive rainfall through at least late in the week.

Atlantic high pressure building in, the potential development, and then movement of the disturbance introduce some potential for the frontal boundary to retreat northward this weekend but a plume of moisture from the Caribbean could follow which could keep the rain around a bit longer. There is some consensus on the potential for a pocket of drier air to move into South Florida from the east along with the high shifting closer to the Bahamas for Sunday. It's still too early to take complete stock in the extended forecast, but the current trends do appear to remain wet with the potential for a few windows of excessive rainfall through the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Generally VFR through the period though some brief bouts of sub- VFR is possible with showers and storms. ESE 7-11 kt wind flow this afternoon will become lighter and more directionally variable overnight. A more southerly flow will emerge for Tuesday except at APF which will be more southwesterly to westerly with the onshore Gulf breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The moderate to fresh east southeasterly flow will weaken and could become southerly to southwesterly during the forecast period as a frontal boundary approaches central Florida. Increasing showers and thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period, with periods of gusty winds and rough seas accompanying any thunderstorm that forms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 89 76 89 / 10 40 30 80 West Kendall 76 89 75 89 / 10 40 20 80 Opa-Locka 77 90 76 89 / 10 40 30 80 Homestead 77 89 76 89 / 10 30 20 70 Fort Lauderdale 77 89 76 89 / 20 40 30 80 N Ft Lauderdale 77 89 76 89 / 20 40 30 90 Pembroke Pines 76 89 75 89 / 10 40 30 80 West Palm Beach 76 89 74 89 / 20 50 40 90 Boca Raton 76 89 75 89 / 20 40 40 90 Naples 75 87 75 86 / 30 30 30 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.