textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

- Scattered showers and a few isolated storms are possible today and once again on Monday afternoon.

- Gusty easterly winds will result in dangerous rip currents at all east coast beaches today.

- The combination of onshore winds and the approaching new moon in the lunar cycle will result in continued minor flooding along the east coast of South Florida within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

05z Mesoanalysis as well as recent surface observations from across South Florida indicate that mid-level ridging and a dry and comfortable airmass still remain in place across the region early this morning. It certainly feels fantastic out there with widespread dewpoints in the low to mid 60s courtesy of a residual plume of dry air at the surface and light easterly flow. Similar to last night, the 00z MFL upper air sounding still depicts an atmospheric profile that is characteristic of mid-level ridging directly overhead with a stout subsidence inversion at 850mb. The 00z MFL upper air sounding recorded a precipitable water value of 1.03 inches, which remains below the 10% percentile for this time of year. But a pattern change is forecast over the next several hours and the atmospheric ingredients are already coming into view in real time. Winds are already beginning to veer east-southeasterly across the region and will veer more southeasterly as the morning goes on. Why is this subtle wind shift important? It signals the start of the departure (and lessening influence) of an expansive area of surface high pressure over the western Atlantic waters and it kicks off the return of deeper moisture to the region. Shower activity across the region is expected to gradually pick up in coverage through the remainder of today.

While a subsidence inversion and the usual hallmarks of mid-level ridging are still being picked up on recent local observations, mid- level winds above South Florida has become more zonal in nature over the last several hours indicating the continued weakening of what was once strong ridging aloft. A long-wave trough currently across the central United States will continue to amplify as it reaches the Great Lakes region later this morning. The development of a jet- streak ahead of the main trough axis will enhance an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes today. A sprawling frontal boundary connected to the aforementioned distant surface low pressure will sweep eastwards across the southeastern United States (and north and central Florida) during the day today. The surface wind field across South Florida will respond to this feature accordingly, remaining out of a southeasterly to southerly direction today. This will result in warm air advection (W.A.A.) which will allow for a plume of deeper atmospheric moisture to arrive into the region, especially during this afternoon. While the best synoptic dynamics are still forecast to remain well to the north of the region, the GFS/European as well as some mesoscale models continue to show a mid-level shortwave propagating along at the base of the trough across Central Florida during the second half of today into the mid morning hours of Monday.

The combination of mid-level vorticity, diurnal heating, and a plume of deeper precipitable water values (1.8 to 2.0 inches) lifting northwards into the region will support the development of showers as well as a few isolated thunderstorms across most of the region today. Forecast model soundings from mesoscale models show modest instability (Surface based CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and steep 0-3km low level lapse rates. While moisture return will saturate the vertical column up to 700mb, there will still be plenty of mid-level dry air aloft. The mixing of this dry air down to the surface during the day could serve as a limiting factor for coverage. The dry air aloft may also support the potential of some gusty winds with shower and storm activity this afternoon. For now have maintained today's chances of precipitation to be in the 20-50% range. As winds remain light out of a southeasterly to southerly direction, temperatures and humidity will be higher today during the afternoon hours. Forecasted highs will range from the middle to upper 80s along both coasts to temperatures in the low 90s across inland southwestern Florida. As the mid-level trough lifts north across the northeastern United States tonight into Monday, the distant surface low attached to the boundary will lose synoptic forcing. This will result in the previously mentioned frontal boundary stalling out just to the north of South Florida. The departing mid-level shortwave may provide a second boost in instability during this time frame as 500mb temperatures remain in the -8C to -9C range, perhaps keeping shower and thunderstorm activity going on during the early morning hours of Monday just offshore of the east coast of South Florida. With our region remaining to the south of the boundary in the warm sector during the day on Monday, a residual plume of moisture will remain across the region which may once again allow for a few afternoon showers and isolated storms. Ample sunshine and light winds are forecast for most of the day, with temperatures remaining slightly above average across the region with forecasted highs in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

The subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active across the eastern United States through mid-week as additional lobes of mid- level vorticity amplify and advect eastward across the Great Lakes. Associated surface lows will also advect from west to east across the Great Lakes dragging sprawling frontal boundaries across most of the eastern half of the country. With the stalled frontal boundary across Central Florida becoming frontolytic in nature by Tuesday, enough residual low level moisture will remain to support the development of a few afternoon showers for most of the region. Temperatures will remain slightly above average for this time of year during this time frame with forecasted afternoon high temperatures each day during the middle to late park of the week remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon.

A frontal boundary during the second half of the week (late Wednesday into Thursday) will usher in the return of drier conditions as drier air works in the region. The continued parade of mid-level troughs across the eastern United States during this time frame will result in mid-level winds over South Florida remaining out of a northerly to northwesterly direction, keeping conditions quiet and dry. Breezy northeasterly winds late this week may once again set up a temperature gradient during the afternoon hours across the region, with the ocean breeze keeping the east coast cooler than out west (SW Florida).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Light southeasterly winds will prevail at all terminals today with the potential of scattered SHRA (and isolated TSRA) across the region this afternoon and evening. Sub MVFR cigs/vis will be possible if SHRA/TSRA activity passes near or over terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Winds will veer southeasterly and remain light to moderate today across the local waters as a frontal boundary approaches the region. The arrival of more northeasterly swell later today may increase wave heights slightly across the northern Atlantic waters into the 4- 6 feet range. Elsewhere, wave heights will remain in the 3-5 feet range across the rest of the Atlantic waters with seas in the 2-3 range across our local Gulf waters. Showers and isolated storms are forecast to develop across the waters today into tonight, especially over the Gulfstream waters. If thunderstorm activity does indeed develop over the waters, erratic wind shifts and locally gusty winds could occur near and around any storms.

BEACHES

Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

A high risk of rip currents will continue across all east coast beaches of South Florida today. While the risk of rip currents will begin to subside on Monday as onshore flow lessens, the risk of high rip currents will persist at Palm Beach County beaches.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar cycle and residual northeasterly swell will result in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast over the next several days. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Monday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 86 75 87 76 / 40 20 30 20 West Kendall 86 74 87 74 / 50 20 30 20 Opa-Locka 87 75 87 75 / 40 20 30 20 Homestead 86 74 86 75 / 50 20 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 86 75 86 75 / 30 20 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 86 75 87 76 / 30 20 20 20 Pembroke Pines 89 75 89 76 / 40 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 87 74 87 75 / 20 20 20 10 Boca Raton 87 74 87 75 / 30 20 20 10 Naples 89 74 89 73 / 20 10 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.