textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 714 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Major coastal flooding is expected with each high tide cycle over the next couple of days. Inundated roadways will be likely for coastal areas. - Locally heavy rain may produce isolated minor urban flooding.

- Strong winds, with gusts over 35 mph are possible through Tuesday night.

- Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected through the middle of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 722 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Only update this morning was to lower PoPs a little across the area for today given latest trends and consensus of short-range models which indicate rain chances more in the 40-60% range over east coast metro areas. This represents little overall change in the weather scenario for today which will feature quick-moving showers with brief bursts of moderate to heavy rainfall, as well as gusty NE winds. Also reduced thunder chances to 20% or less due to prevalence of dry air aloft and deepest moisture and highest instability over the Bahamas.

Tide levels at the east coast sites are on track to reach moderate to borderline major flood levels in the next 2-3 hours.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The pattern for the middle of this week remains largely unchanged with a mid-level low remaining mostly stationary near the Bahamas today before finally advecting eastward for the end of the week as the ridge blocking pattern over the eastern US begins to break down. The surface high pressure in the northeast will remain amplified for one more day, resulting in another round of gusty NE winds today due to the potent pressure gradient. Expect wind gusts today again in the 30-40 mph range consistently along the east coast metro and beaches today with sustained winds often in the 25-30 mph range. Coastal showers will be likely once again throughout the day due to speed/frictional convergence occurring as stronger winds over the water merge into slightly weaker winds right over the adjacent land areas. Rainfall from these swiftly moving showers are not expected to be enough to result in a risk for excessive rainfall, despite a surface low likely advecting across the area from the east. This surface low could provide enough forcing for some slightly extra rainfall, but still not anticipated to be enough to result in excessive rainfall. High temperatures today are primarily expected in the low to mid 80s.

As the low near the Bahamas begins its northward/north-eastward shift, the local pressure gradient will start to relax for the latter half of Wednesday as mid-level troughing advecting across the central US helps to weaken the stout high pressure in the northeast US, although breezy northeasterly winds are still expected to linger through Wednesday across South Florida. The low near the Bahamas will be the primary forcing mechanism for showers and storms, with our region sitting on the western periphery of the circulation. Enough vorticity and additional forcing should provide enough energy for scattered showers and some thunderstorms across the region. Most of this is projected to be of the weaker variety with low chances for a couple of heavier downpours. High temperatures are expected to rise to the mid to upper 80s for Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

After fruitful talks with the wind, an agreement has been reached for an immediate ceasing of its northeasterly onslaught of the Florida Atlantic coast. This calming of the winds shall commence early Thursday morning as pressure gradients finally begin to relax across South Florida. While surface high pressure off the coast of the mid-Atlantic United States will still be quite strong, it's influence over the winds in South Florida will begin to diminish as the main centroid drifts further east into the ocean. Meanwhile, surface troughing along the northern Caribbean will also begin to wash out as a weakening surface low drifts west into the Gulf. This will allow for wind directions to finally change (after about a week of northeast flow) to a more easterly direction. Wind speeds will lessen to 5 to 8 mph, and a more typical sea-breeze pattern may actually be able to develop during the afternoon (although the westerly Gulf breeze will likely struggle to push far inland).

Relating to the pattern aloft, ensemble guidance is in good agreement regarding the evolution of the cut-off mid level low over the Bahamas. This feature should finally eject east into the Atlantic by end of the day Thursday. This will allow for ridging from the Gulf to expand across the Florida peninsula through the weekend. Guidance is hinting that 500 mb heights may climb into the 588 to 591 dam range, which would be above the 75th percentile for this time of year. This pattern should result in temperatures warming back up into the mid to upper 80s across South Florida and overall less unsettled weather. But, with PWATs hanging around at 1.6 to 1.8 inches, PoPs will still be around 30% to 40% across most of the region. Continued east to northeast flow will keep the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms over interior and southwest Florida, closer to the Gulf breeze convergence. Overnight, isolated to scattered showers will continue to be a nuisance along Atlantic coastal areas. Luckily for you trick or treaters on Halloween night, the weather is looking quite nice, with only about a 20% chance of showers along eastern metro areas and light to calm winds from the east.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 722 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions to prevail with brief MVFR conditions possible in quick-moving SHRA throughout most of the forecast period. This scenario covered by PROB30 SHRA but some sites may see very little in the way of ceiling/visibility reductions. TSRA chances too low to mention. Winds 020-040 degrees 15-20 knots gusting to as high as 25-30 knots, gradually becoming 050-070 degrees 12-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots after 04z-06z.

MARINE

Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue through at least mid-week as strong northeasterly winds persist across the local waters. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected through Tuesday night across the Atlantic waters, where a Gale Warning remains in effect. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue across the Gulf waters and Lake Okeechobee through at least Wednesday, with the Gale Warning becoming a Small Craft Advisory in the Atlantic on Tuesday night. Seas are forecast at 5 to 8 feet in the Gulf today and 10 to 14 feet across the Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms are also expected to develop across the Atlantic waters over the next several days. These hazardous conditions should gradually improve toward the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A high risk of rip currents will persist for all Atlantic beaches through at least mid-week period. Dangerous surf heights of 8 to 11 feet are expected to linger for the Palm Beaches through Wednesday.

Furthermore, strong onshore wind flow and high seas may combine with King Tides to increase the threat of coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast. Today and tomorrow have the highest chances for reaching major flood stage, with moderate flooding otherwise occurring at minimum. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect along the Atlantic coast through Wednesday due to the potential for significant coastal flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 75 85 75 / 60 60 30 20 West Kendall 84 75 86 75 / 50 50 30 10 Opa-Locka 83 75 86 74 / 60 60 30 20 Homestead 84 75 86 75 / 50 50 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 81 75 84 75 / 60 60 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 82 75 84 75 / 60 60 40 40 Pembroke Pines 84 74 86 74 / 60 60 40 20 West Palm Beach 82 74 84 74 / 70 70 50 30 Boca Raton 82 75 84 75 / 60 60 50 40 Naples 85 72 87 73 / 10 10 40 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168- 172-173.

Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ610.

Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630- 650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.