textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 401 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Potential for additional heavy rainfall and flooding continue today with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late this morning through the evening hours.

- Minor to Moderate coastal flooding expected during times of high tide.

- Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 401 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Model consensus remains consistent in showing a mid-lvl disturbance moving across the area to begin gradually dissipating through mid week. This is mainly driven by an interaction of the disturbance with an approaching northern stream frontal boundary. But model soundings still keep abundant moisture in place, with PWATs well above normals, still lingering around 2" today and Wednesday.

Ensembles amd high-res solutions depict a feature resembling a cutoff low aloft over the E Gulf providing enough dynamic lifting across the state today. Meanwhile, forecast CAPE around 1500 J/Kg, along with having better chances at periods of more efficient daytime heating during the morning hours. Therefore, expect another round of heavy downpours this afternoon and evening with widespread Max POPs in the 60-70% range. Particularly vulnerable to localized flooding impacts will again be east coast metro areas, which were significantly impacted yesterday.

In terms of severe weather potential, sounding and model data show some lingering low-lvl CIN, along with a narrow layer of mid-lvl drier air, which may provide some capping to vertical updrafts. This may help in preventing explosive development, however, it may favor localized, highly efficient convective downpours. Flooding threat will be particularly high with consecutive showers and slow- moving storms, with isolated max accumulations around 5" possible.

Also, coastal hazards continue as high astronomical tides combine with persistent onshore winds to keep threat of coastal flooding in place today.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 401 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Long range models depict a synoptic scenario with a series of shortwave troughs aloft passing through the area late this week and into the weekend, while some drier air filters into the mid/low lvls. Meanwhile, model consensus is increasing regarding the potential for a dry frontal passage for the later part of the work week.

There is also a potential shortwave cutting off from the northern stream and slowly moving across the E CONUS, which will ultimately decide when/if we get the FROPA all the way into SoFlo later this week. Regardless of the final outcome, models still keep this FROPA fairly dry with little indications of significant rain/thunderstorm activity associated with it. Winds are also expected to diminish as pressure gradients relax in the wake of the frontal passage.

Temperatures will generally remain in the mid to upper 80s, warmest over southern areas of SoFlo.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Showers have decreased during the overnight hours, but another round of rain and thunderstorms is expected today, starting around 15Z. Increasing SHRA/TSRA may result in periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis this afternoon and evening hours. Gusty erratic winds may occur with any SHRA/TSRA that directly impacts a terminal. Winds in general should remain ENE around 10kt through the late morning hours, then 10-15kt and gusty after 15Z.

MARINE

Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters through this evening as a fresh to strong easterly breeze and a NE swell remain in place. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh easterly breeze will gradually diminish today. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across all local waters through the early portion of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The onshore flow and elevated winds and seas will keep a High Risk for rip currents across Atlantic beaches through at least mid week. Higher than usual tides will also create elevated water levels near the coast. Dangerous beach and swim conditions are expected through mid-week.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water levels are forecast to gradually climb into Moderate flood stage again by tonight's high tide as we start to head closer and closer to the New Moon on Nov 9. Hopefully, by mid-week, we'll be able to remove the strong onshore wind component and pull back some of the heavy rain potential as astronomical tide levels start to rise again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 85 75 85 74 / 50 40 50 30 West Kendall 86 75 86 74 / 40 40 50 20 Opa-Locka 86 75 86 74 / 60 40 50 30 Homestead 86 75 86 74 / 40 40 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 83 75 83 74 / 70 50 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 84 75 84 74 / 70 50 50 30 Pembroke Pines 86 75 86 73 / 70 50 50 30 West Palm Beach 84 75 84 73 / 50 50 40 10 Boca Raton 84 76 84 75 / 70 60 50 20 Naples 86 72 85 72 / 60 20 50 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168- 172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.