textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 656 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing today and expected on Saturday. Coverage should decrease over coastal metro areas on Sunday. Frequent lighting, heavy downpours, and isolated wind gusts to 45 mph are the primary threats.

- Heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding today and again Saturday, especially urban and poor drainage areas.

- Peak heat index values will range between 103 and 108 across most areas of South Florida today through this weekend. Heat risk will peak in the moderate to major category each day. Wear light-weight, light color clothing and stay hydrated.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The Precipitable Water (PW) off the 12Z KMFL sounding was near 2.0 inches, and the latest satellite derived Total PW indicates similar values. This is near the 90th percentile per the SPC Sounding Climatology. The coastal metro area is under a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall today. As of 3 PM, much of the activity has shifted to the interior along seabreeze/ outflow boundary collisions, as well as near and north of the Broward/Palm Beach County line. The latest RRFS and its ensemble support this trend continuing through the evening until convection diminishes around 8 to 9 PM. Meanwhile, satellite shows cumulus struggling to build in the remainder of the coastal metro which has stabilized from earlier convection. As long as that remains the case, the main focus for any urban flooding potential this afternoon and evening would be mainly in Palm Beach County, with a low probability of flash flooding.

A similar pattern will be in place on Saturday with 0-3 km mean flow out of the Southeast around 5-10 kts. Storm motion be may be a tad faster, but still east to west. CAMs favor shower and thunderstorm activity getting an early start by late morning in the coastal metro areas before again shifting to the interior with the seabreeze/outflow boundary collisions. The Precipitable Water is modeled to be around 1.9 inches, which is closer to the 75th percentile per the SPC Sounding Climatology. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again on Saturday. Frequent lighting, heavy downpours, and isolated wind gusts to 45 mph are the primary threats.

Heat index values as of 3 PM generally ranged between 103 and 108 where convection was not ongoing. Expect similar peak heat index values across South Florida on Saturday as well. Heat risk will peak in the moderate to major category.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

On Sunday, some drier air aloft is modeled in the coastal metro, with the Precipitable Water forecast around 1.8 inches, which is close to average for early July. CAMs also don't expect the early start to convection in the coastal metro. With Southeast flow in the 0-3 km layer of 5 to 10 kts, expect a more typical evolution of convective development favoring the interior and Southwest FL coastal areas with the seabreeze/outflow boundaries as primary forcing mechanisms. With a similar pattern remaining in place, expect a repeat of this on Monday. For Sunday and Monday, the main concerns with any storms, in addition to frequent lighting, would be heavy downpours and isolated wind gusts to 45 mph. Peak heat index values both days will range between 103 and 108 across most areas of South Florida with the heat risk peaking in the moderate to major category each day.

For Tuesday through Thursday, South Florida will be increasingly under the influence of the western extension of the subtropical ridge. This introduces some uncertainty into the precipitation forecast. If Southeast low to mid-level flow is maintained, then precip chances would be higher, compared to lower with Southwest low to mid-level flow. In general, the chance of precipitation should decrease through midweek, which may set us up for an increasing potential of advisory-level heat and a corresponding greater heat risk.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

TSRA are diminishing with 00Z TAFs featuring lingering SCT025 cigs overnight at all of the terminals. Another round of TSRA are expected on Saturday, with the pattern similar to Friday, including what the CAMs are showing. Have included VCTS by 15Z at the east coast metro terminals, with broad PROB30 groups, as multiple rounds of activity are possible similar to Friday. Brief restrictions to MVFR are possible with TSRA along with wind gusts around 20 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The coastal waters will be under the influence of the western extension of the Atlantic subtropical ridge over the next several days. Winds will favor the Southeast direction, although becoming more onshore within the seabreeze zone from late morning into the evening hours, with light to gentle breezes. Over the next several days, showers and thunderstorms will favor the open Atlantic and Gulf waters from late night into the morning, then developing over inland areas by the afternoon into the evening. The main concern will be briefly higher winds and seas in the vicinity of any thunderstorms and their associated outflow boundaries. Looking ahead, the overall coverage of showers and storms should decrease by Tuesday and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 91 79 91 / 30 60 30 80 West Kendall 76 92 76 92 / 30 60 20 80 Opa-Locka 79 93 79 93 / 30 60 30 80 Homestead 79 92 79 91 / 30 60 30 70 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 80 91 / 30 50 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 79 90 / 30 60 20 80 Pembroke Pines 80 94 80 93 / 30 60 30 80 West Palm Beach 78 91 78 91 / 20 60 20 80 Boca Raton 79 91 79 90 / 20 60 20 80 Naples 78 91 78 91 / 40 60 60 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.