textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 558 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers spreading across SoFlo through the late morning hours with a cold front passage.

- Low temperatures after a frontal passage with early Friday morning reaching lower 30s around the Lake region, and upper 30s to mid 40s around the metro areas. Apparent temperatures could drop into the mid 20s around the lake, with mid 30s to lower 40s possible for coastal metro areas.

- Hazardous marine conditions today with strong west- northwest winds between 25-30kts. This breezy westerly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents and high surf across Collier County beaches beginning this morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Models remain in good agreement with the passage of a strong frontal boundary today, with the bulk of the showers ahead of the front expected during the mid-late morning hours. CAM/NBM max POPs remain in the 50-60 percent range as the boundary pushes across the area. Model PWATs remain around 1.5", along with HREF-QPF max around 1", which will translate in scattered to numerous showers through the late morning hours with moderate rainfall rates expected. In terms of convection, the combination of very poor CAPE/MUCAPE values and the prevailing cloud cover restraining daytime heating will result in little dynamic support for thunderstorm activity. Any isolated storm that develops will likely be near the coastline. The main concerns will begin this afternoon and evening as winds behind the FROPA shift NW will mark the onset of robust cold air advection. Coldest temperatures across SoFLo on Friday morning will drop into freezing values (30-31F) over Glades and portions of Hendry counties. A Freeze Warning has been issued for those areas, for which residents should take protective actions like bringing sensitive plants indoors, shelter pets, and ensure wearing warm clothing if going outside.

Another cold related issue will be wind chills with the northerly flow. Latest ensemble/global guidance show appT values in the mid- upper 20s for northern/interior areas of SoFlo, and up to upper 30s over the coastal metro areas. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has also been issued for much of the rest of SoFlo, except the metro areas closest to the coastlines. But even residents in those areas should wear warm clothing if going outside early in the morning.

Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal/warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Broad high pressure expands across the region with temperatures gradually warming up a bit on Saturday, but still remaining around the low-mid 70s. Persisting subsidence will keep near zero chances of rain across SoFlo, with maybe a few coastal showers over the Atlantic waters during Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal/warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s.

By Sunday, latest global solutions remain on track showing the onset of another cool down period as a another frontal boundary reaches the area. No significant rain impacts are anticipated as this should be a relatively dry FROPA during the late Sunday/Monday morning timeframe. Lows may drop into the 30s and 40s, with Monday afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

High pressure returns in the wake of the front with prevailing N/NE winds and near zero chances of rain through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis with showers will require tempos and AMDs through around 15-16Z as the area of rain associated with the front clears the area. By this afternoon, winds will veer NW and NNW by this evening, with gusts in the 25-30kt range possible.

MARINE

Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Winds shift to the WNW then NW by late this afternoon with a cold front passage across the area. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for all coastal waters and the Lake with wind speeds up to 25- 30kt will be possible.

Scattered to numerous showers will also accompany the frontal passage with most rain activity expected during the morning hours. Conditions should begin to quickly subside Friday morning.

BEACHES

Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

A strong northerly wind surge will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf advisory conditions across the Gulf beaches later today. The high risk is likely to last into mid- week as winds shift to an east-northeast direction.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 44 69 59 / 70 0 0 0 West Kendall 76 39 69 53 / 60 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 75 43 69 58 / 70 0 0 0 Homestead 76 43 69 58 / 60 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 73 43 68 59 / 70 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 73 43 68 59 / 70 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 74 42 69 57 / 70 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 41 68 57 / 70 0 0 0 Boca Raton 73 42 69 58 / 70 0 0 0 Naples 71 40 66 51 / 80 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ063- 066>075-172.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ063-066.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ069.

High Surf Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657-676.