textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 103 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop again today with the highest chances remaining over the interior and Southwest Florida. - Peak heat index values will generally range between 100 and 109 across most areas this afternoon resulting in a widespread moderate HeatRisk across the metro areas.

- Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the week will allow a High Risk of Rip Currents to develop along the Atlantic beaches that will persist into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening, with the bulk of the activity favoring inland and SW FL. A recent gust of 46 mph was observed at APF. Count rule out another isolated storm with strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph today. Another interesting note is that as of 1 PM the high at MIA has only reached 88 degrees, and with rainfall and cloud cover around SE FL, it's currently only 83 degrees. Should they fail to reach 90, the streak of 56 consecutive days of reaching at least 90 will come to an end.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Deep-layered high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to provide for an easterly surface wind flow over South Florida through the rest of the work week. An inverted trough rounding the Atlantic high pressure will move across the Bahamas today and tonight before reaching Southeast Florida on Friday. The additional moisture and instability brought to the region by this feature will align with the maximum of diurnal heating to enhance sea breeze convection on Friday, particularly over Southwest Florida.

Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Thursday and Friday. Heat index values will reach the lower to mid 100s with some portions of the area exceeding 105 (mainly in SWFL). Sensitive individuals without proper cooling and hydration will be at risk of heat illness under these conditions.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The aforementioned inverted trough is expected to lift northward along the Florida Peninsula late Friday into Saturday. Deep tropical moisture (PWATs generally exceeding 2 inches) will linger across South Florida through much of Saturday, supporting enhanced convective coverage focused across the interior and southwest regions. As the disturbance lifts north of the area, Atlantic surface high pressure will gradually reestablish itself across the Florida Peninsula. This will maintain a moderate easterly to southeasterly flow through early next week before the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat by the middle of the week, resulting in a lighter broad easterly flow.

Model and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement depicting a gradual drying trend beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next week, with PWAT values generally decreasing into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. These moisture levels are closer to seasonal norms and sufficient to support typical summertime convection. Accordingly, scattered afternoon and evening showers are expected each day through the extended period, with the greatest coverage generally favoring the interior and southwest Florida under the prevailing easterly flow. A plume of Saharan dust may approach South Florida by the middle of next week, which could suppress overall convective coverage and intensity, but confidence on its impacts remains low at this time.

The return of Atlantic ridging and overall reduction in cloud cover will support a slow warming trend through the extended forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 90s across much of South Florida, while peak heat indices may reach 105 to 110 F each afternoon. Moderate HeatRisk will persist, especially across the east coast metro and southwest Florida. This warming trend will continue to be monitored closely over the coming days for the potential of increasing heat-related impacts across the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Outside of convection, easterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts, decreasing to 5-10 kts overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Easterly wind becoming moderate across the local waters through late week. Occasional fresh breezes are possible over the Atlantic waters during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. A disturbance moving across the area late Thursday through Friday could bring some additional shower and thunderstorm activity outside of the normal diurnal activity. Seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually increase and could range between 3 to 4 feet heading into Thursday and Friday.

BEACHES

Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Easterly winds will gradually increase through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. As a result, there is a High Risk of Rip Currents starting this morning and continuing through at least Saturday morning along the Atlantic beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 91 80 91 / 40 60 40 20 West Kendall 78 91 77 91 / 30 60 30 20 Opa-Locka 80 92 80 92 / 40 60 40 20 Homestead 78 91 80 91 / 40 50 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 89 80 90 / 50 60 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 81 90 / 50 60 40 20 Pembroke Pines 80 90 81 91 / 40 60 40 20 West Palm Beach 79 90 79 91 / 50 60 30 30 Boca Raton 79 88 80 89 / 50 60 40 20 Naples 76 92 77 92 / 20 80 40 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.