textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of metro SE Florida and around Lake Okeechobee this afternoon, with the primary threat being strong/damaging wind. However, an isolated threat exists for severe hail and a funnel cloud or tornado.

- Patchy dense fog possible again tomorrow morning, mainly across interior South Florida and Southwest Florida. - Smoke from wildfire activity may still create dangerous driving conditions across portions of I-75, Tamiami Trail, and SR-29 today.

UPDATE

Issued at 156 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

We are starting to see convection develop across the lake region and Palm Beach county early this afternoon. With low-level prevailing SW flow and the easterly Atlantic sea breeze moving inland, the greatest threat for severe storms will be over Palm Beach and Broward counties this afternoon as the sea breeze gets pinned and convergence occurs between the sea breeze and low- level SW flow. This convergence will also support the risk for an isolated funnel cloud or tornado.

As covered in the previous discussions, the convective parameters are adequate for a few severe storms today, particularly in the form of wind as current ACARS soundings highlight an inverted-V setup from the 800mb height level down to the surface. This type of sounding will support the possibility of sudden downdrafts as rain cooled air can rush to the surface and is highlighted with DCAPE (downdraft CAPE) near 1000 J/kg. This threat will end in the evening as nocturnal cooling begins.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

South Florida sits just to the south of a decaying frontal boundary early this morning. With light southerly moisture advection and light surface winds, fog development is likely once again early this morning especially across Southwest Florida and local Gulf waters. Residual smoke from the National & Regal fires in southwestern Florida may act to create exceptionally dense fog across these areas, resulting in visibilities nearing zero at times and dangerous driving conditions. Motorists are advised to exercise extra caution if traveling along inland routes through 9am this morning, especially along Alligator Alley and SR-29 in Collier/Hendry counties.

The decaying frontal boundary will continue to progress very slowly southward through the day today while likely remaining just to the north of the forecast area as a shortwave transverses the SE CONUS. This should keep South Florida in the envelope of deeper tropical moisture. The continued increase of low-level moisture and passage of the shortwave could help facilitate the development of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. While it will be possible for most of South Florida to see a few showers today, the focus of convection will develop near the Lake Okeechobee region during the late afternoon/early evening with showers and storms eventually pushing off the Palm Beach coast. Potential hazards include gusty winds, small hail, and a non-zero chance of a quick spin-up tornado in this type of setup.

Rain chances will decrease slightly on Sunday as the frontal boundary slowly sags and eventually stalls across South Florida. Surface flow will eventually veer northeasterly through the day as the boundary fizzles and pressure gradient begins to tighten. Enough moisture will remain in place to support a few coastal showers during the morning hours, and scattered showers to isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the low to mid 80s with lows in the 60s overnight.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

As the frontal boundary becomes frontolytic in the vicinity of our region on Monday, the moisture associated with it will remain across the region. With the departure of the mid-level shortwave well to the east of the region and the departure of the subtropical jet- stream well to the north of the region, a quiet period on the synoptic scale is ushered into the region as a mid-level ridge of high pressure develops over the Gulf and gradually slides eastwards towards South Florida on Tuesday. Breezy conditions are forecast to develop by the Tuesday-Wednesday time period as the surface pressure gradient tightens, mainly along the east coast where winds could gust 20-25 mph Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Precipitable water values in the 1.3 to 1.6 range will support the potential of isolated to scattered showers each day throughout the upcoming work- week perhaps maximized along the immediate east coastline and over local waters. Prevailing conditions by far will remain mostly sunny throughout the week as any shower activity should be brief.

Forecast high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to low 80s along the East coast to mid to upper 80s along the Gulf coast, Monday through Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Generally VFR for the period. Lingering TS/SHRA around KPBI should taper off in the next few hours along with winds becoming light overnight. Another round of low CIGs will be possible for KAPF tonight, along with an outside chance for lower CIGs for some of the east coast terminals. This chance is low, so have only hinted at it for now with monitoring continuing overnight. By 15-16Z tomorrow, winds increase out of the NE to around 10 kts for the day. No mention of VCSH/VCTS yet for tomorrow afternoon or evening as chances are lower, but this will be monitored as well.

MARINE

Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Outside of locally elevated seas and winds in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity, conditions will remain benign across all local waters through the weekend. Locally dense fog may occur this morning across the nearshore Gulf and Lake Okeechobee waters, which will result in lower visibilities than normal. The development of a pressure gradient next week will act to establish a breezy to at times gusty easterly wind flow across the region during the beginning of next week. This will usher in a duration of likely Advisory conditions across the Atlantic waters during this time frame.

BEACHES

Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Light southerly winds across the region today will result in a low risk for rip currents across all South Florida beaches. With winds forecast to enhance out of an easterly onshore direction early next week, an elevated risk of rip currents is forecast to return along the east coast of South Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 69 81 68 79 / 20 40 40 20 West Kendall 63 83 64 82 / 10 40 40 20 Opa-Locka 67 82 67 81 / 30 50 40 20 Homestead 66 82 68 80 / 10 40 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 68 78 68 77 / 40 50 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 68 78 68 78 / 40 50 30 20 Pembroke Pines 67 83 67 82 / 30 50 40 20 West Palm Beach 66 78 67 78 / 50 40 30 20 Boca Raton 66 79 67 79 / 50 50 30 20 Naples 64 81 63 82 / 20 20 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.