textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday for the Atlantic beaches. - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Tuesday evening before drier conditions return for mid week.

- Areas of fog possible tonight over inland portions of South FL.

UPDATE

Issued at 1201 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

17z Mesoanalysis indicates the continued presence of a convergent boundary (coastal convergence) across southern Palm Beach and northern Broward counties, which has resulted in pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall over the last several hours. Pockets of 1-2 inches of rainfall have fallen thus far across southern Palm Beach County. The frictional convergence of the coastline and breezy easterly flow to the south of the boundary has resulted in a continuation of ample surface moisture feeding new shower development as activity gradually pivots to the south. Recent ACARS data from KMIA and KFLL depict ample dry air in most of the vertical column with the exception of the saturated lowest level of the boundary layer. Aside from a few rumbles of thunder, mainly offshore or along the immediate coast, convection will remain shallow in nature over the next couple of hours. Mesoscale models like the WRF, HRRR, and RRFS have had a hard time with the current pattern, often under doing the spatial and temporal extent of convection. Have blended the NAMnest, SREF, and NBM to get a better representation of how rain chances could play out today. Once the current convergent boundary along the east coast dissipates in the next couple of hours, the highest chance of shower activity shifts to the Gulf coast where there may be enough low level moisture to get some afternoon/early evening shower development along the Gulf breeze.

Only other change made to the forecast was the inclusion of dense fog once again tonight between 06z-13z as light winds, clear skies, and ample low level moisture will once again support the potential for patches/areas of dense fog, mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region and inland southwestern Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Latest probabilistic guidance shows an increasing likelihood for patchy to areas of dense fog, especially over inland portions of South FL. Given the clearing skies, light winds, and precip yesterday, the increase in probs seems reasonable. Increased the coverage of patchy fog to include much of South FL outside of the immediate metro, and included areas of fog over inland portions of SW FL. Will monitor observations and area web cams closely this morning to see if any headlines will be needed.

Early morning analysis shows a frontal boundary across northern FL with a couple of weak lows along the frontal boundary in the northern Gulf. Locally, moderate easterly flow will continue again today, with the latest HREF showing PWAT values continuing to slowly increase today with values of 1.6-1.8 inches by late in the day. Most of the hi-res guidance continues to struggle with precip for today, so going with more of a persistence forecast today with scattered showers throughout the day. While chances will remain for the entire east coast metro, the best signals for persistent coastal convergence showers will be over Palm Beach and northern Broward counties. QPF is another struggle today, but wouldn't be surprised to see pockets of 0.5-1 inch amounts, while the vast majority of the area will be a quarter inch or less. High temps this afternoon will range from the low to middle 80s.

As the complex system shifts to the SE US late tonight into early Tuesday morning, our low level flow will become SSE tonight and eventually SSW during the day on Tuesday. Some widely scattered coastal showers are possible overnight into the early morning hours, with mild lows ranging from the upper 60s around the lake to lower 70s across the east coast metro.

With the SSW flow in place on Tuesday, the humidity really ramps up with dewpoints surging into the low to middle 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches. As the frontal boundary starts to approach our area from the NW, plenty of instability will be in place for showers and occasional thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours. High temps Tuesday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

The cold front will cross the area on Wednesday before settling south of the area across the FL Straits. Little moisture will be left by the time the front gets here, so rainfall chances will be fairly low. The front will however bring some slightly cooler and drier air to the region for the remainder of the work-week, with temperatures returning to near normal. As the low level flow turns southerly next weekend, moisture begins to increase the slight chances of rain will return to the forecast. Temps next weekend will also return to several degrees above normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions and light winds forecast for most of South Florida tonight before winds enhance and veer southwesterly by daybreak on Tuesday. SHRA is possible once again tomorrow out ahead of the arrival of a frontal boundary but confidence in coverage remains low at this time, so decided to not include mention of VCSH at any terminal.

MARINE

Issued at 1201 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Breezy easterly winds expected across the local waters today before turning southerly on Tuesday. A brief period of hazardous winds is possible across the northern Atlantic waters Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the Atlantic through Tuesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 1201 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Moderate easterly flow today will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. The high risk will remain through Tuesday before conditions improve mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 73 85 70 82 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 69 85 67 83 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 71 86 69 83 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 72 84 68 82 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 72 83 68 81 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 72 84 69 82 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 71 86 68 84 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 71 86 68 82 / 20 20 0 0 Boca Raton 71 86 68 82 / 20 20 0 0 Naples 69 82 68 80 / 20 20 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...None. GM...None.