textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 703 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Scattered to numerous storms possible today and Saturday, and some could be strong. Best chance will come during the afternoon and early evening hours.

- Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

No updates needed to the forecast. Still anticipating convection to be far greater than yesterday and it already is. The TUTT is moving over the region and that will add a little better upper level environment in place. At 17z there area was becoming increasingly unstable with sfc based CAPE of greater than 5k J/kg while MLCAPE was greater than 3k. With the center of the TUTT just off to the east there is slightly better diffluence aloft which will remain in place the rest of the afternoon and into the evening over south FL. This will aid with thunderstorm development and rainfall efficiency especially as light better moisture pushes in. There is a fight between the SAL and higher moisture content but GOES19 TPW values are indicating around 2" with the TUTT which will slowly work into south FL through the day and night. This will be a decent increase from the 1.74" the 12z RAOB had this morning. The combination of all of that will and is already leading to better coverage. A few storms yesterday didn't start to develop till 21z but we are already seeing a few along the east coast before 17z. Through the remainder of the afternoon we should see scattered storms continue to develop along the east coast and over interior areas and with decent SE-ESE flow from the sfc to h7 storms will move to the east with coverage likely becoming a little more numerous over the western half of the CWA late this afternoon.

As for this evening there are some interesting things showing up in the CAMs. With the exception of the HRRR multiple CAMs are showing an area of convection developing along the Cuban coast late afternoon/early evening and then driving north across the FL straits. There are some questions if this is real or are most of the CAMs firing convection and due to the instability just continuing to develop storms as the outflow surges north or are they on to something. One key is timing. An early initiation would likely provide a better chance of those storms driving north into south FL as the inland areas will still be sufficiently unstable however if storms don't start to move north across the strait till early evening the convection will likely split peninsula with the east and west sides both remaining over the marine areas where the higher instability is. Main impacts from any of this activity would be gusty winds, especially over the coastal areas, along with cloud to ground lightning. /CAB/

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

As high pressure across the western Atlantic dominates the synoptic pattern at mid and low levels, a TUTT begins to approach the area from the Southeast today at the upper levels. This will facilitate the departure of the dry and dusty air mass that became entrenched across South Florida for the past two days. Moisture begins to increase through the day with PWATs approaching 2 inches by this evening. CAMs depict a general increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across southern portions of the area associated with the TUTT with activity pushing north and northwest through the day where maximum coverage will probably be realized across interior and Southwest Florida this evening. 500mb temps are poised to cool off a touch from the 6-7 C range into the 8-9 C range by this afternoon, which coupled with the enhanced divergence aloft from the TUTT, could lead to a few more vigorous updrafts today. While conditions were hot under the dry air mass, heat index values have the potential to be even higher today as more low level moisture advects from the southeast. A few areas may see relief especially during the afternoon and evening with developing showers and storms, however, a heat advisory will be in effect for all of South Florida today and could possibly be issued on Saturday as well. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 70s in far interior Florida however they will struggle to dip below 80 along the coast. Elevated rain chances linger into Saturday as the TUTT continues to progress westward and PWATs remain in the 1.7-2 inch range but certainly not a washout by any means. Highest rain chances will be across interior locations and Southwest areas of the region. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

High pressure at the surface is poised to remain draped across the western Atlantic which will maintain southeasterly flow through the weekend. This will also advect an additional plume of Saharan dust across the area by mid-weekend into early next week. The aforementioned TUTT will weaken and continue to advect westward away from the region on Sunday, as a drier Saharan air mass is advected across the area. PWATs begin to drop back into the 1.3-1.4 inch range on Sunday and Monday which should limit the convective potential towards the end of the weekend into early next week. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40% through Wednesday. Hot conditions are expected to continue through the period, especially for locations that don't receive relief from afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid- upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Additional head advisories will be likely through the remainder of the weekend and through much of the upcoming work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Still raining over Naples right now and these light showers likely will continue for the next few hours. Otherwise watching convection both just off the east coast and additional storms over south FL and in the Florida strait. TSRA will be possible over southern and eastern coasts through much of the evening before finally tapering off early in the morning. Any terminals impacted by storms will see terminals drop into MVFR status and can't completely rule out temporarily dropping into IFR status due to vsbys dropping. Otherwise terminals should remain in VFR status until convection tries to refire tomorrow. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Moderate east-southeast flow prevails through the upcoming weekend. There is an increased chance for showers and storms across local waters today and Saturday which may lead to erratic winds and waves at times. Outside of any convective activity, wave heights will remain at 3 feet of less across local Gulf and Atlantic waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 93 81 95 / 30 30 10 20 West Kendall 77 94 77 95 / 30 30 10 20 Opa-Locka 80 95 80 96 / 30 30 10 20 Homestead 80 93 80 94 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 81 93 81 94 / 30 30 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 81 92 80 94 / 30 40 10 10 Pembroke Pines 82 95 81 97 / 30 30 10 20 West Palm Beach 80 93 79 94 / 20 50 20 20 Boca Raton 81 91 80 93 / 20 40 20 10 Naples 77 93 78 95 / 20 30 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.