textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 650 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Heat indices between 105-108 possible through the evening hours. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible this afternoon and evening favoring interior and eastern areas of South Florida. - Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 408 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Forecast scenario for today hasn't changed much in latest guidance, except for NBM and GFS showing a little better moisture pool and slightly higher instability over the Lake region. This seems to mark the edge of the deeper moisture/mid lvl troughiness lingering around most of the northern half of the Florida peninsula, while the SAL influence remains in place across SoFlo for one more day. 00Z MFL and model soundings keep below normals PWATs in the 1.4-1.7" range.

Meanwhile, weak sfc high pressure remain over each side of the state, with the western edge of the Atl high just to the east of the peninsula. This configuration will result in generally light to moderate flow, mainly from the SE over the Atlantic coast, and generally NNW over the Gulf coast. Sea breezes should again become dominant in the afternoon hours and will likely be the mechanism for convective initiation. Latest high-res solutions insist in possible showers or a stray thunderstorm or two developing near or over the east coast metro areas later this afternoon. But POPs/Wx coverage overall remain fairly low in the forecast due to the drier air prevailing over the area. Mixed-Layer(MLCAPE) in the 500-1000 j/kg, lower DCAPE values (300-500 j/kg), and 500 mb temps around -6C among other parameters point at a low threat for strong to severe cells. However, one threat to keep in mind would be the slow-moving nature of any storm that may form, which could result in localized flooding.

Once again, heat-related impacts will be the headline for today, with heat index values close to or at advisory levels. Less cloud cover and rain activity will allow for afternoon highs to hit the mid-upper 90s and HI values in the 105-108 range. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 am to 7 pm EDT, focusing on coastal metro areas and portions of interior Collier county. People should avoid risking heat illness impacts by remaining hydrated and in cool locations, especially during the afternoon peak hours.

For Friday, the synoptic scenario begins to evolve rather quickly with the weakening of the high pressure over the area allowing for the onset of a surge in deeper tropical moisture moving into the region. Currently, NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the NE Gulf waters, with the primary impact for SoFlo being potential for locally heavy rain.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 408 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The model trend towards a quicker recovery of the air mass for the weekend has now better intra-model consensus with instability and chances of rain surging across SoFlo as the suppression from the departing SAL allows for deeper moisture to filter into the mid levels. As the mid-lvl ridge breaks down, and regardless of the evolution of the disturbance over the NE Gulf, models show troughiness developing over the state and remaining in place through early next week. In response, a more robust southerly flow establishes and enhances the moisture advection across the area.

Meanwhile, model CAPE/DCAPE potential seems to increase to around 2K/1K j/kg respectively through the weekend, along with PWATs back into the 2.0-2.3" range. Therefore, there will be good support for stronger, taller storms especially with sea breezes and boundary collisions. Highest POPs/Wx coverage will reach the 60-70% each afternoon with increasing potential for strong to severe cells. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts, hail, lightning strikes and localized flooding. This forecast scenario continues into early next week, then showers and storm activity gradually decrease for the rest of the work week.

Despite the spike in rain and thunderstorms, there should be enough sunshine for keeping max temps in the 90s each day. Heat advisory potential will be explored each day. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR to start the 12Z TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning then ESE around 10 kts across the east coast metro this afternoon with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered thunderstorms mid to late afternoon into the early evening mostly over interior South FL.

MARINE

Issued at 408 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A moderate southeasterly breeze will continue across the Atlantic waters, while a WNW flow will prevail over the Gulf waters today and tomorrow. Towards the end of the week, winds will become more south-southwesterly across all local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters through Friday, becoming more numerous during the weekend. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 96 80 95 79 / 20 20 60 20 West Kendall 96 77 95 76 / 20 20 60 10 Opa-Locka 97 80 96 79 / 20 20 70 20 Homestead 95 79 94 79 / 10 10 50 10 Fort Lauderdale 95 81 94 80 / 10 20 70 20 N Ft Lauderdale 95 81 94 79 / 20 20 70 20 Pembroke Pines 98 81 97 80 / 20 20 70 20 West Palm Beach 95 79 94 78 / 20 20 80 30 Boca Raton 93 80 93 79 / 20 20 70 30 Naples 94 79 91 79 / 0 20 40 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068>070-072-074-168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.