textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 701 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Rain chances will remain elevated through the end of the upcoming weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and upper level disturbance will result in periods of scattered shower and storm activity.

- During the afternoon and evening hours of today through Sunday, a few storms could become severe and produce frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, hail, and localized urban flooding. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The latest satellite and radar imagery shows the decaying frontal boundary with some scattered shower activity making its way southwards tonight. This boundary will stall over South Florida and allow for deeper moisture to pool across the area today and into this weekend. PWATs are expected to rise to a range of 1.4-1.8" on most short range mesoscale models (including the HRRR, RRFS, AIFS). This deeper moisture along with a stalled frontal boundary will provide instability for the local atmosphere. Additionally, the longwave trough pattern covering much of the Eastern Seaboard will swing through the Florida Peninsula, providing a forcing mechanism for ascent via positive vorticity advection along with diurnal heating and the sea breeze circulations. The troughing pattern will flatten out some on Saturday, but South Florida will be downstream from another shortwave forming in the Gulf, keeping the instability ongoing.

With this moisture pooling and the decaying frontal boundary likely hanging around through Saturday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop both today and Saturday while also becoming pretty widespread. Furthermore, there is a growing risk for some storms to reach severe criteria as cold air aloft settles in above the warmer near-surface air. 500mb temperatures are projected to fall to -10 to -11 deg C today and fall even further as low as -12 to -13 deg C on Saturday. This would be near the coldest observed 500mb temperatures recorded. This profile with the cold air aloft will result in steep low level lapse rates and a lower than normal freezing level which can result in some robust updrafts and hail growth. Model soundings also highlight an inverted-V setup both today and tomorrow, which will create potential for microbursts as rain cooled air can collapse to the surface.

Overall, the depicted atmospheric profiles and current local conditions will pose threats for small to large hail, strong wind gusts of 60+ mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours. Can never entirely rule out a brief spin up either due to sea breeze interactions with the main flow. General QPF for both today and Saturday does not exceed more than 0.5-1 inch with a reasonable worst case scenario of around 2 inches of rain. However, latest HREF LPMM guidance does hint at localized potential for 4-6" in a quick 2-3 hour time span. If these pockets happen to occur over metro or downtown city areas, there could be quick flooding concerns but with the flow pattern switching to the east/northeast, the heaviest rain should occur over interior locations where sea breeze convergence occurs and additional outflow boundaries collide.

High temperatures both today and Saturday will mostly be in the mid 80s with a few interior locations possibly reaching the upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

An active weather pattern will continue for Sunday and into next week as another trough forms over the Gulf and advects across the Florida Peninsula through early next week. At the same time, a powerful trough anchored by near-meriodional flow on the immediate edges of it over the central U.S. will be advecting towards the eastern U.S. towards mid-week. Because of how deep this trough is anticipated to be, the resulting cold front it produces along the leading edge is expected to make a push into South Florida and perhaps through the region this time. Prior to the front arriving, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop each day through Monday with severe thunderstorms continuing to be possible as cold temperatures remain in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and enhanced lift occurs from the troughing pattern. Hail, strong wind gusts and periods of heavy rain can accompany storms each day.

As the front passes on Tuesday, the overall atmospheric profile will cool although deep moisture will not fully escape as PWATs remain elevated and the atmospheric column becomes nearly saturated. Thus, muggy conditions and slight chances for showers will continue through the middle of next week and perhaps into late week but it will not be anywhere near as active and chaotic as this weekend is expected to be.

Temperatures are forecast to fall from the mid to upper 80s on Monday to the low to mid 70s for most areas on Tuesday as the front moves through and then a slow rebound into the late week period. Overnight lows could fall back into the 40s and 50s for much of South Florida on Wednesday morning post front.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Light easterly winds today, with an afternoon Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered showers this morning, with thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early evening which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Gentle to moderate easterly flow returns today across the local waters and will become southeasterly over the weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day through this weekend and into early next week. Periods of heavy rain, frequent lightning, hail, and gusty winds can accompany storms and locally chaotic seas may occur. Seas are expected to rise to 5-7 feet in the Atlantic today for a brief period before decreasing tonight into Saturday.

BEACHES

Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A high risk for rip currents exists for the Palm Beaches today as flow shifts back to a northeasterly direction. A moderate risk is in place for the Broward beaches. Heading into the weekend, the risk for rip currents is expected to increase for the rest of the Atlantic coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 83 70 83 72 / 60 30 70 30 West Kendall 85 67 85 68 / 60 30 60 30 Opa-Locka 84 69 85 71 / 60 40 70 40 Homestead 84 70 85 72 / 50 30 60 30 Fort Lauderdale 81 69 82 72 / 60 40 70 40 N Ft Lauderdale 81 70 82 72 / 60 40 70 40 Pembroke Pines 84 70 85 72 / 60 40 70 40 West Palm Beach 80 69 83 70 / 60 40 70 40 Boca Raton 80 69 83 71 / 60 40 70 40 Naples 85 69 84 69 / 30 30 60 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.