textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 648 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Atlantic coast during high tide cycles. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue today with a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The dry and sunny forecast remains on track for most of South Florida this afternoon. The recent 12z MFL upper air sounding continues to show quite a dry profile overhead, with precipitable water values of around 1.25 inches. These conditions are within the 10th percentile for this time of year, and with strong capping inversions within the driest layer of 700 and 850 mb, chances of precipitation for this afternoon are near 0. Scattered cumulus will develop as sea breezes push inland across the region. Southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph will be common across the Atlantic coast, while westerly winds of 5 to 10 mph will be common along the Gulf coast. Chances for precipitation begin to increase tonight and into tomorrow as a shortwave disturbance moves into the Gulf and deeper moisture moves north from the Caribbean. Highest chances of 50% to 60% will favor southwest Florida through the morning and early afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

South Florida will enjoy one last day of dry and pleasant weather today thanks to the lack of synoptic forcing and the presence of an anomalously dry air mass over the region. PWATs overnight remained in the 1-1.5" range, and ACARS data and the 00z MFL sounding showed a substantial pocket of dry air between 850-200mb. High-res ensemble data suggest these conditions will remain generally unchanged today, with sustained subsidence, sunny skies, and near zero chances for precipitation.

A gradual transition period will begin late this afternoon and overnight. A mid-level shortwave impulse will approach from the Gulf; as it does, southerly to southwesterly flow along the atmospheric column will usher a moisture-rich airmass over the area, with PWATs expected to rise back into the 1.8-2.0 inch range. By Tuesday, the influence of this impulse and the increase in moisture across the area will allow for the return of scattered showers and thunderstorms across South Florida (with PoPs in the 50-60% range). CAMs suggest activity could begin shortly after daybreak, starting across southwest FL and drifting eastward across the region.

Temperatures will rise back into the upper 80s and low 90s through the short term period. Overnight lows will drop into the low 70s across the East Coast and down into the mid 60s across the interior.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Mid-level ridging will begin to build on Wednesday as the much- discussed Nor'easter drifts north and dissipates. Near the surface, high pressure will continue to build across the western Atlantic, bringing the return of easterly/southeasterly flow across the area. Moisture advection will continue, with PWATs forecast to continue hovering near 2 inches through the period. This pattern will promote continued scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm development each afternoon. Storm activity will likely favor interior and southwestern Florida due to the stronger easterly flow during the latter half of the week. There is increasing confidence that temperatures will increase back into the upper 80s and low 90s areawide over the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Light and variable winds expected overnight for most sites. Winds for tomorrow morning are quite uncertain, with some guidance showing a southwesterly wind begging before sunrise, then shifting more southerly and southeasterly. Some of this uncertainty has to do with the fact that a complex of showers and storms will be approaching southwest Florida during the early morning, so have included VCSH and VCTS for KAPF. Outflows from these storms may create erratic wind directions and brief gusts. The Atlantic sea breeze may struggle to push inland until the mid afternoon. Overall, VFR conditions should persist through the period for all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Conditions across the local waters continue to improve as the influence of the Nor'easter diminishes this week and surface high builds over the area. However, lingering northerly-northeasterly swell could persist across the Palm Beach waters today and tonight. Generally light and variable winds will prevail across all local waters today, gradually becoming more southerly overnight into Tuesday as surface high builds over the western Atlantic. Wave heights across the Atlantic should remain in the 3-5 feet range today. By Tuesday, all local seas should remain in the 1-3 feet range. Chances for precipitation increase Tuesday onwards.

BEACHES

Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Coastal flooding remains likely along the East coast during the high tide cycles today. Observations continue to out-perform guidance by a decent margin, leading us to anticipate tidal gauges to reach Moderate once again today. As such, A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastline, while a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for southern Miami-Dade and mainland Monroe, where Minor stage coastal flooding could be possible.

A high risk for rip currents also continues for all Atlantic coast beaches as an persistent northerly/northeasterly swell continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 75 86 75 86 / 10 50 40 60 West Kendall 74 86 74 86 / 10 50 40 60 Opa-Locka 74 87 75 86 / 0 50 40 60 Homestead 74 87 76 87 / 10 60 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 74 86 75 86 / 0 50 40 60 N Ft Lauderdale 74 87 75 86 / 0 40 40 60 Pembroke Pines 73 86 74 86 / 0 50 40 60 West Palm Beach 73 88 75 87 / 0 30 40 60 Boca Raton 74 87 75 86 / 0 40 40 60 Naples 73 86 72 87 / 30 60 40 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.