textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 116 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are again expected in the afternoon and evening hours through the rest of the weekend. The main hazards from these storms will be gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the rest of the weekend for much of the area. - Drier air associated with the Saharan Air Layer will slowly move into the area, starting late Sunday and into Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 419 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of south central and southwestern Florida. The storms today have been higher in intensity than previous daytime convection, with storms reaching to just beneath severe criteria of winds. The 12z balloon showed nearly 4000 J/kg of surface based CAPE, with current SPC Mesoanalysis indicating precipitable water values of greater than 2 inches as well as widespread DCAPE of 800 J/kg. Outflow boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze will need to be monitors through the day for additional development, in particular closer to the Atlantic coast.

Aside from the ongoing storms, latest data indicates no major changes to the forecast, with overall ridging throughout the region maintain the current routine of diurnal thunderstorms. With the ample moisture availability through the region (PW values ~1.8 inches), precipitation will be primarily driven by small perturbations aloft and sea breeze interactions. Storm motions will remain slow, with no major guiding flow aloft until you get to the upper levels, which will shift storms to the southwest.

Heat will also continue to be a concern through the region. High temperatures in the region will be in the 90s and heat indexes climbing into the low to mid 100s across inland Florida, with mid 100s along the coasts. These temperatures will need to be monitored through the next few days in case headlines/advisories are needed.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 419 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

An upper-level ridge is still anticipated to expand through the southeastern CONUS, resulting in a continuation of a similar weather pattern of hot conditions, diurnal thunderstorms, and a focus on sea breeze forcing being the focal of storms through the region. One major variation will be the influence of Saharan Dust in the mid- levels advected through the region late Sunday through Monday. These will help limit precipitation chances, as well as result in warmer surface temperatures as the dust will also limit cloud cover through the region. With this slight nudge upwards in temperatures, heat indexes will likely be a concern early in the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 150 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

L/V winds and VFR will continue through around 15Z when another round of showers and VCTS is expected. Winds will become generally SE around 10k today, except for westerly flow at APF after 17Z with Gulf breezes. Erratic and gusty winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. L/V flow returns this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 419 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

High pressure remains in control of the region through early next week. Light to moderate SSE winds will also continue over the Atlantic waters, becoming SSW over the Gulf waters with afternoon sea breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over coastal areas and move over land at times during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Any thunderstorm that forms may produce locally strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain in the 2-3 feet range or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

BEACHES

Issued at 406 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 80 93 80 / 30 0 10 0 West Kendall 92 78 94 78 / 30 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 93 80 94 80 / 30 0 10 0 Homestead 92 80 93 80 / 20 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 81 92 81 / 30 0 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 92 80 / 30 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 94 81 96 81 / 30 0 10 0 West Palm Beach 91 79 92 80 / 30 0 10 0 Boca Raton 90 81 91 81 / 30 0 10 0 Naples 93 77 94 79 / 50 10 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.