textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 737 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 - Dangerous Rip Currents will once again develop for the Atlantic Coast beaches this morning and they will remain in place through the end of the week. - Hazardous marine conditions across all local waters as winds and seas begin to increase. These hazardous conditions will remain in place through at least the middle of the week. - Localized flooding will be possible along the east coast through Wednesday. A Flood Watch remains in place for the east coast metro areas through 10 PM Wednesday evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A deep plume of moisture remains entrenched across the bottom half of the Peninsula along a decaying stationary boundary. The recent 0z KMFL upper air sounding shows a pretty saturated environment from top to bottom, with a precipitable water content of 1.70 inches, within the 90th percentile for this time of year. As a result, there is still moderate confidence for heavy rainfall along the Atlantic coast, where the Weather Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk of excessive rainfall and a Flood Watch is in effect through Wednesday night. Once again, the main contributor for shower activity will be coastal convergence along the Atlantic. Brisk northeasterly flow over the Gulf Stream will continue to enable moisture and frictional convergence along the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Palm Beach metros, providing enough forcing and ascent for scattered showers to develop throughout the morning and afternoon. The HRRR is once again the most bullish among hi-res guidance, showing more robust storms developing along coastal Broward and Palm Beach before sunrise. Other guidance is not as excited on strength but agree on placement along the Atlantic coast, particularly farther north near Palm Beach.

The recent 0z HREF is also a little bit more bullish on QPF amounts than the previous run, with 24 hour mean ensemble amounts between 1 and 2 inches. Once again, the worst case scenario 24 hr max amounts show pockets of 5 inches along coastal Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. However, its notable that the HREF signal for Wednesday (along with other ensembles like the REFS) is less than the signal for the Tuesday's rainfall threat, and that didn't end up playing out like many of the more bullish solutions had modeled. As a result, confidence is less for today that we will see urban flooding impacts.

One reason that the Tuesday rainfall threat may have not played out as forecast is that the environment was actually much more unstable and more supportive of faster moving storms. The 18z Tuesday sounding didn't show the ideal "long and skinny" CAPE profile necessary for flooding rainfall. Instead it hinted at a much more unstable airmass with MUCAPE near 2700 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates of 7 C/km. There was also brisk westerly flow aloft and plenty of shear, along with additional forcing from a mid-level shortwave. As a result, storms moved from west to east a little bit quicker across the metro during the afternoon and were more of a severe threat than a heavy rainfall threat (as shown by the strong gust and wind damage LSRs). This flow aloft may have also played a role in why the coastal convergent showers didn't stay pinned along the shoreline as previously modeled. Now as for today's rainfall threat: Looking at RAP model soundings for this afternoon, one notable thing that stands out compared to Tuesday's sounding is the weaker flow in the mid-levels and a long and skinnier CAPE profile. But, lapse rates don't look all that favorable to support deep convection, and while there is less instability than yesterday (1000 J/kg), there is still plenty for strong downpours to develop. Probably the most promising feature in the model sounding that we haven't really seen the past few days is that 1 km and 6km wind barbs will be almost inverse of each other. This means that the upwind propagation will be opposite to the surface moisture convergence, which may result in some storms being anchored in place along the coast. If this does play out, certain spots are likely to get on that upper end of 3 to 5 inches. Overall, the main concern for urban locations will be ponding water over low lying spaces and poor drainage areas. This may cause some roadways to become impassable.

Outside of the rain threat, northeast winds will stay pretty breezy throughout the day on Wednesday, with gusts near 30 mph along coastal Palm Beach. Marine and beach ares will remain quite hazardous due to these strong winds. There looks to be a quick lull in wind speeds on Thursday, particularly for inland and Gulf areas. But, choppy waters will remain for the Atlantic through the end of the week due to persistent easterly flow.

For Thursday, guidance continues to hint at coastal convergence showers and storms developing along the Atlantic coast counties for the early morning through afternoon. However, PWATs look to be on the downtrend (decreasing to a still above average 1.5 inches), and mid-level dry air starts to make its way into the region. There is still some spread among QPF ensemble clusters, but the majority of members (70%) show rainfall amounts of about an inch to an inch and a half for Thursday. The other less likely solution shows 2 to 2.5 inches for upper end amounts. As a result, there is a very low risk of urban flooding concerns across the metro area on Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The wet pattern that we have been enjoying (or detesting... to each their own..) will begin to break down on Friday. High pressure ridging begins to strengthen over the north Florida gulf coast starting on Friday, pushing the longwave troughing pattern east into the Atlantic. PWATs will slowly but surely continue to decrease through the weekend and into next week as northerly flow ushers in a a drier airmass. Some isolated to scattered showers may develop on Friday while there is still some moisture convergence along the Atlantic coast. But, precipitation chances greatly decrease through the weekend as the drier and more stable air mass takes hold. By Monday, 500 mb heights of 590 dm will sit squarely over Florida, increasing temperatures into the mid to upper 80s areawide. The surface high over the Carolinas keeps a stout pressure gradient along the Atlantic coast, so breezy easterly winds will remain through the beginning of the week. Winds look to relax during the middle of the week as the ridge meanders overhead, but conditions will remain mostly dry and sunny.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 737 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible early this morning as low cloud deck overspreads the region. After that, moderate easterly winds with gusts up to 25kts, and a few rounds of SHRA/TSRA which could once again result in MVFR/IFR conditions early afternoon (although confidence is lower with that solution, so did not add TEMPOs at this time). Confidence grows of impacts to KPBI later tonight as another round of storms moves through.

MARINE

Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Stronger northeast winds have begun to kick in across the area due to a stout pressure gradient driven by a 1038 mb sfc high over the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds (both coasts) and seas (east coast) will remain elevated through the entire week as strong high pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic.

Small Craft Advisories will continue through Wednesday night for the Atlantic waters, Gulf waters, and Lake Okeechobee. Winds will be strongest across the waters east of Palm Beach, where gusts may be as strong as 35 kts and wave heights as high as 14 feet. Winds will be slightly weaker over the Lake and over the Gulf but still in the 20 to 25 kt range. There will be a brief lull in breeziness on Thursday morning, but conditions will pick up again on Thursday afternoon across both the Gulf and Atlantic.

Brisk northeast flow will remain through the end of the week, particularly for the Atlantic waters where winds will still be near 25 kts on Friday. Wave heights will decrease back down into the 7 to 8 ft range, but due winds, Small Craft Advisories over the Atlantic have been extended through Friday. Highlights will likely be needed through the weekend as the easterly flow pattern remains steady.

BEACHES

Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The threat of rip currents will remain high across the Atlantic through the end of the week. In addition to rips, surf heights will continue to build on Wednesday across the Palm Beaches and peak along the entire east coast on Wednesday, with peak breakers between 7-10 ft. A High Surf advisory has been issued for the Palm Beach area through Friday. Surf heights will decrease towards the end of the week, but breezy easterly winds will continue to keep hazardous beach conditions in place across the Atlantic.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 69 78 69 / 70 60 70 30 West Kendall 82 66 81 67 / 70 50 60 20 Opa-Locka 81 69 80 69 / 70 60 70 30 Homestead 81 69 81 70 / 60 50 60 30 Fort Lauderdale 78 69 76 69 / 70 60 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 77 69 76 69 / 70 70 70 30 Pembroke Pines 81 69 81 70 / 70 60 70 30 West Palm Beach 76 68 76 68 / 80 70 70 30 Boca Raton 77 69 76 69 / 80 70 70 30 Naples 83 67 83 67 / 50 30 50 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for GMZ656-657-676.