textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 318 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- The threat of isolated strong to severe storms remains in the forecast this afternoon/evening across northeastern South Florida.

- A stalled out frontal boundary could keep rain chances elevated across much of the region through the end of the work week.

- Apparent temperatures (feels-like) could peak in the 100-105F range this afternoon across most urban areas.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

South Florida finds itself in the warm sector of an approaching front and under a rich tropical airmass, with PWATs climbing up to around 2.1 inches according to the 18z MFL sounding. Aloft, longwave troughing extends south across the eastern seaboard, which will help advect some mid-level vorticity impulses across the region and provide increased shear across Florida. As the trough swings east into the western Atlantic, cyclogenesis will induce a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas, which will help push a "cold" front south across the state on Wednesday. These ingredients will contribute increased chances of precipitation across South Florida, with even a low risk of severe weather and isolated flooding impacts late this afternoon through evening across the eastern coast.

SPC mesoanalysis indicates bulk shear values up to 35 kts across central Florida, which would be supportive of stronger thunderstorms. The 18z MFL sounding indicates up to 25 kts of effective shear for the Miami area, which is a little bit higher than what model soundings were indicating. Overall, thermodynamics should be pretty favorable across the region, with CAPE values looking to climb up to near 3000 to 4000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates of 8 C/km. The upper air observation shows a more moist profile than what some of the models were indicating, so we may be trending towards more of a heavy rainfall threat than a severe weather threat. A slight inverted v profile and some drier air in the mid levels would favor a few strong downdrafts if storms are able to mature enough, supported by DCAPE values between 700 and 800 J/kg. CAMs indicate that most thunderstorm activity will develop along the Atlantic sea-breeze, focusing over the metro areas from Miami to Palm beach. There is still some spread among guidance on where the majority of stronger storms will focus, with some solutions favoring more southern storms (which would favor heavier rain over Dade) and other solutions showing more northern storms (which would favor a marginal severe threat for Palm Beach). In any case, the ingredients will be there for both isolated urban flooding and isolated damaging winds across Dade and Broward and slightly higher chances for Palm Beach. Timing has been trending a little bit later, with most activity looking to focus during the late afternoon and evening.

Overnight, activity shifts offshore over the Gulf Stream and winds become more light and variable over land. For Wednesday, the front looks to reach South Florida during the morning and stall short of the end of the peninsula. Mid and upper level cloud cover is expected to increase with this frontal passage, which may serve to limit afternoon convection. Forcing from the front will probably squeeze out some precipitation throughout the day, with PoPs in the 40 to 50% range areawide. However, increased northeast flow may also inhibit a true sea-breeze circulation from forming, and a cooler more stable airmass would likely limit any deeper convection from forming. Guidance does seem to favor the southern Everglades and southeast Dade for heavier rainfall and storm activity during the afternoon, which would seem to coincide with the location of the frontal boundary.

Max heat indices this afternoon will climb into the low 100s areawide, which will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all metro areas. After the front passes through tomorrow, temperatures will dip down into the the mid 80s for most locations through the middle of the week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

As the mid-level trough amplifies and advects eastward into the western Atlantic waters, deterministic and ensemble guidance hints at the frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity of South Florida Thursday into Friday with forecast precipitable remaining at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Model guidance continues to hint at the potential development of a cut-off low (and non-tropical surface low pressure) over the region or just east of South Florida in the vicinity of the northwestern Bahamas. The evolution of the potential cut-off low and surface flow direction around the surface low pressure will have direct implications on the forecast for the upcoming weekend and early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon, mainly affecting the east coast metro area. As a result, periods of MVFR conditions are expected for any storms that move over any terminals, so TEMPOs have been included for the late afternoon through early evening period. Winds become more light and variable overnight, then pick up out of the east during the morning hours tomorrow as a front approaches the region. Mid and upper level cloud cover is expected to increase as the front moves overhead.

MARINE

Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Light northwesterly winds across the nearshore waters will veer to an onshore direction by this afternoon. A front is forecast to move across much of the state Wednesday through Thursday and bring an increase in surface winds as well as a more significant swell across the Atlantic waters. Advisory level seas are possible by late week across the Gulfstream waters. Scattered showers and storms are expected today across Atlantic waters and will be more widespread in nature across Gulf and Atlantic waters Wednesday through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 75 85 75 83 / 60 60 50 60 West Kendall 74 87 73 84 / 60 60 40 70 Opa-Locka 75 86 75 84 / 60 50 40 60 Homestead 76 87 75 84 / 50 70 60 80 Fort Lauderdale 76 84 76 82 / 70 60 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 76 84 76 82 / 70 60 50 60 Pembroke Pines 77 87 76 85 / 70 60 40 60 West Palm Beach 75 84 76 83 / 70 60 40 40 Boca Raton 76 84 76 83 / 70 60 50 50 Naples 77 88 73 86 / 30 50 40 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.