textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 108 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Elevated risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through today.

- Patchy fog possible across inland and SW Florida again early this morning.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through most of the week, with increasing rain chances Friday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Patchy fog will be possible once again over interior portions of South Florida early this morning as surface flow becomes light and variable with dew points around 70. Some spots may see fog become dense and decrease visibilities below half a mile for a period of time early this morning.

Looking at the pattern setup for today, surface high pressure will rest over the western Atlantic today while a strong mid-level and upper-level ridge set up over the Florida Peninsula through tonight. This ridge will be forced away from the area by an approaching potent shortwave trough for the second half of Thursday. Surface flow will shift to the south and southwest ahead of the approaching cold front associated with this trough, allowing for warm and moist air to be advected across the region. However, quiet weather is still expected to last through today as high pressure dominates. Only a few weak showers will be possible mainly along the Gulf breeze. Easterly flow will keep shower development pushed westward and the hottest temperatures will also be towards the interior and Gulf coast areas. With that said, all of South Florida will see temperatures in the mid to upper 80s or even low 90s in some spots today.

As we move into Thursday, the front will begin to wash out in its approach to South Florida given hot temperatures across most of the Florida Peninsula and the colder air mixing in with this. By the time the front tries to advect into South Florida, the air mass will be too modified and will lack a large enough temperature gradient to continue pushing southwards. Thus, the front will stall out over south-central Florida late on Thursday and not provide a ton of forcing or instability for shower and thunderstorm development. This is expected to result in mostly lackluster showers and storms, although some heavier rain pockets are still likely at times. PoPs will rise to 20-30% for Thursday afternoon and evening and are expected to rise further in the days to follow. High temperatures for Thursday are expected in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The aforementioned trough will advect through the region by Friday afternoon with weak surface high pressure and a near zonal upper level flow pattern setting up. The frontal boundary will stall out to the north of the area with deeper moisture (PWATs up to 1.4-1.7 inches) pooling over South and Central Florida. With this setup involving a lingering weak front, weak surface high pressure replacing the departing trough, and model soundings suggesting substantial dry air above the 700mb layer, overall instability is not expected to be high although it will be enough to support some thunderstorm development for Friday through this weekend. Strongest enhancement of convection is expected to occur along the sea breeze boundaries as a weak flow pattern sets up behind the departing trough. The specifically strongest individual storm cells will form where the strongest low-level convergence occurs, which is likely to be over inland/interior locations given the weak flow. QPF each day is still forecast to be no more than half an inch each day in an average sense across the region. While localized areas can see much more than this, this setup does not favor consistent heavy bouts of rain. Specific rainfall amounts will be refined in the coming days as guidance becomes more clear.

For the latter half of the weekend and into early next week, guidance continues to suggest the potential for another shortwave to form over the Gulf and cross into South Florida on Sunday into Monday with more increased rain chances, followed by another frontal boundary trying to reach the area. This front may very likely get stalled out as well towards the middle of next week, but uncertainty remains with this. For now, expect elevated rain chances for the Sunday-Monday time frame and then some drier air infiltration and a stabilizing pattern heading towards the middle of next week.

High temperatures will fall slightly for Friday as the cold front washes out, but most areas will still be in the low to mid 80s or even upper 80s for some interior locations each day through Monday of next week. Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night for most areas, although east coast locations will continue to be around 70 each night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR expected to prevail for the period. Light winds this morning will increase out of the SE around 10-12 kts late this morning through the afternoon and evening. Winds then decrease to around 5-7 kts overnight into Thursday. KAPF will see winds shift to the SW with a Gulf breeze after 18-19Z.

MARINE

Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A gentle east to southeast breeze continues over the Atlantic waters today, with a gentle southeast breeze over the Gulf waters that shifts southwesterly in the afternoon due to the Gulf breeze. These winds will shift southerly and eventually southwesterly on Thursday as a frontal boundary pushes close to the area. Lighter and more variable winds are then expected heading into the weekend. Mostly dry conditions are expected again today, but rain chances will increase late this week as the frontal boundary and its associated disturbance approach the area. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less through the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Persistent east to southeast flow will keep an elevated risk for rip currents in place for the Atlantic beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 83 72 85 70 / 0 0 30 20 West Kendall 86 68 87 66 / 0 0 20 20 Opa-Locka 85 71 87 70 / 0 0 30 20 Homestead 84 71 86 70 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 82 71 84 70 / 0 0 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 82 71 85 70 / 0 0 30 30 Pembroke Pines 85 71 87 70 / 0 0 30 30 West Palm Beach 83 70 87 69 / 0 0 30 30 Boca Raton 83 71 85 69 / 0 0 30 30 Naples 87 68 84 68 / 0 0 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.