textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

- High risk of rip currents continues for the Palm Beach and Broward County beaches today. - Areas of dense fog will develop early this morning across inland areas as well as Southwest Florida. Another round of fog will be possible late tonight into early Friday morning. - Very warm temperatures will continue area wide through the end of the week and into most of the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

A broad mid level ridge will center over the region today into tonight before shifting into the western Atlantic heading into Friday. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic and South Florida will remain on the western periphery of the high. In general, this set up will allow for a rather light south to southeasterly synoptic wind flow across the region during this time frame.

With light winds in place tonight combined with a mainly clear sky, there will be enough lower level moisture in place to support areas of fog once again mainly over the interior as well as Southwest Florida during the overnight hours. Some of this fog could become dense once again especially across portions of Southwest Florida overnight into early Friday morning. This could reduce visibility to a quarter of a mile or less during this time frame. Any fog that does develop will gradually begin to lift after sunrise on Friday morning.

As the sea breezes develop and push inland this afternoon and Friday afternoon, winds across Southwest Florida will shift to more of a south southwesterly direction. With broad mid level ridging in place combined with surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic, mainly dry conditions will remain in place across South Florida through the end of the week. With plenty of subsidence from the deep layer ridging combined with a southerly surface wind component, this will allow for very warm temperatures each afternoon especially across the interior. High temperatures today and Friday will rise into the lower 80s along the east and west coast, however, mid to upper 80s will be common across the interior portions of South Florida.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Broad mid level ridging continues to push further into the western Atlantic during the first half of the weekend. At the surface, South Florida will continue to remain on the western periphery of a large area of high pressure for one more day as it continues to push further into the western Atlantic. This will keep mainly dry conditions and very warm temperatures in place during this time frame. High temperatures will rise into the lower 80s along the coasts, while mid to upper 80s will be common across the interior. Some locations across interior portions of Southwest Florida may rise to 90 degrees or just above on Saturday afternoon.

The weather pattern across the region starts to change during the second half of the weekend as the mid level flow quickly becomes zonal before giving way to an amplifying mid level trough that will be digging into the region from the northwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure will begin to rapidly intensify off of the Carolina coastline on Sunday as it gradually pushes northeastward into the Atlantic Sunday night into Monday. The cold front associated with this system will extend southwestward and it will gradually push across the Florida Peninsula Sunday into Sunday night. The uncertainty in the forecast rises a bit here in regards to timing of the frontal passage across South Florida as the latest ECMWF guidance suite shows a faster solution than the latest GFS guidance suite. There is good agreement, however, that the best dynamics and instability will be well off to the northeast as the front pushes through. This will keep the chances for thunderstorms extremely limited out ahead of the approaching front. There will be enough moisture in place to support the potential for isolated to scattered showers out ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. However, at this time the highest chances will remain across the Lake Okeechobee region and chances will be lower heading further south and east. High temperatures on Sunday will rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas as southwesterly wind flow develops out ahead of the cold front.

Behind the frontal boundary, high pressure will build back into the region bringing a much drier air mass along with it heading into the early portion of next week. The pressure gradient will tighten across South Florida allowing for a breezy northwesterly wind flow to develop during this time frame. This will also allow for strong cold air advection to take place beginning on Sunday night and lasting throughout Tuesday when the winds gradually begin to veer and become more northerly later in the day. This will allow for another round of below normal temperatures early next week as highs on Monday and Tuesday afternoon will struggle to reach 70 across most of the region. Low temperatures on Sunday night into Monday morning will generally drop into the 40s across Southwest Florida and into the 50s elsewhere. Monday night into Tuesday morning still looks to be when the coldest temperatures will occur with mid to upper 30s possible across interior portions of Southwest Florida, while temperatures will drop into the 40s across the rest of the region. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions should generally prevail through the TAF period. Areas of patchy fog, dense in spots, has developed over the interior and could impinge on some of the sites (most likely KAPF and KTMB), but confidence regarding impacts remains too low to include mention of MVFR/IFR at this time. Southeasterly winds will continue today, becoming light and variable overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

A gentle to moderate south to southeasterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters through the end of the week as high pressure remains parked over the western Atlantic. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 4 feet through Friday while seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame. Areas of dense fog will be possible over the Gulf waters early this morning, and then again late tonight into early Friday morning.

BEACHES

Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beach and Broward County beaches through this afternoon while a moderate risk of rip currents remains in place across the Miami Dade County beaches. The high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches through the end of the week due to a lingering northeasterly swell.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 68 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 84 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 84 66 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 83 67 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 81 67 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 81 67 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 84 66 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 83 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 82 66 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 82 63 82 63 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172.

AM...None. GM...None.