textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

- Dangerously cold temperatures and apparent temperatures are expected this morning and again tonight into Monday morning. Members of the general public and agricultural interests are advised to prepare accordingly.

- Dangerous marine conditions continue today. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest marine forecast over the next several days.

- Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible through early this morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Strong cold front has crossed South FL and one of the coldest airmasses South FL has experienced since at least 2010 is filtering into the region early this morning. The back-trajectory of this airmass can be traced back to Hudson Bay in Canada. Latest ACARS sounding for MIA shows a PWAT value of 0.5 inches, and guidance suggests that should drop further to around 0.2 inches by daybreak. The 540 thickness line is all the way down to Lake Okeechobee and some guidance suggests it may drop south of the lake by the end of the day. Temperatures continue to plummet early this morning and low temps will bottom out in the mid to upper 20s around the lake and lower 30s across the metro areas. The temperatures will feel even colder though thanks to a tight pressure gradient between the quickly deepening low off the Mid Atlantic coast and strong high pressure over the Southern US. Wind gusts of 40-45 mph are expected through daybreak, which will result in dangerous apparent temps in the teens around the lake region and 20s over the rest of South FL.

As for current headlines, We have Extreme Cold Warning and Freeze Warnings for Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach. Freeze Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories for metro/inland Broward, metro/inland Miami- Dade, and inland Collier. Cold Weather Advisory for coastal Broward, coastal Miami-Dade, coastal Collier, Mainland Monroe, and far south Miami-Dade. All of the cold weather products are in effect until 10 AM this morning. In addition, the entire area is under a Wind Advisory for wind gusts up to 45 mph until 7 AM.

Despite plenty of sunshine expected today, temperatures will struggle to rebound as the cold airmass continues to filter into the region. High temps will barely reach 50 north of Alligator Alley, and will reach the low to mid 50s over the far southern peninsula. The pressure gradient will start to relax as the day progresses, however wind gusts of 20-30 mph are still expected through sunset tonight.

Tonight will be another extremely cold night across the region. With mainly clear skies and winds continuing to relax, temperatures will plummet quickly tonight and many inland locations will again fall below freezing. Low temps will range from the mid to upper 20s around the lake, to low and mid 30s across the metro. With the lighter winds in place, especially west of the lake, frost will become more of an issue tonight. Frost may even be observed over western portions of the metro, especially in sheltered locations. While the apparent temps won't be as low tonight, they will still fall into the 20s over most of South FL. Cold weather headlines will be issued later today after the current headlines are expired.

While daytime temperatures on Monday will be "warmer" than Sunday, they will still remain well below normal only reaching the upper 50s to around 60.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

As high pressure slowly shifts over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, we'll start a slow warm up across South FL. Cold weather headlines will likely be needed again Tuesday morning especially over inland South FL where lows will be in the low to mid 30s. As the high shifts east of the area mid week, the low level winds will become south to southwesterly which will bring temperatures up to near normal for Wednesday. This warmup will be short-lived however as another cold front is expected to cross the area on Thursday, and this will reinforce cooler air into the region for the remainder of the week and into at least the first half of next weekend. The only real rainfall chances in the extended period will be late Wednesday into early Thursday ahead of the approaching front, however QPF values appear to be a tenth of an inch or less so there will be little to no relief for the ongoing drought.

Temperatures overall this upcoming week will remain below normal. Besides Tuesday morning as mentioned above, the only other day this week with potential cold weather headlines will be Friday morning, and that may just end up being over inland SW FL.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR through the 06Z TAF period. NW winds around 20 kts gusting to 30 kts this morning becoming 10-15 kts this afternoon and then less than 10 kts this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Dangerous marine conditions today for all South FL waters. NW winds 30-40 kts with gusts around 45 kts expected through at least early this afternoon. Seas 10-15 ft in the both the Atlantic and Gulf waters today. Gale Warnings are in effect for all area waters. Winds begin to subside this evening although Small Craft winds are likely to remain in the Atlantic through Monday evening. Hazardous seas in the Gulf are expected until late tonight and in the Atlantic until early Tuesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Increasing swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for all area beaches today. In addition, a high surf advisory is in effect until this afternoon for Collier county beaches for surf heights of 5-8 ft in the surf zone. A high surf advisory may be needed for the Palm Beaches on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

A very cold and dry airmass is expected today into early this upcoming week. Critically low RH values are expected over much of South FL today and Monday and over SW FL on Tuesday. The min RH values today will coincide with decreasing wind values so fire weather headlines are not expected, however an elevated threat will still exist especially with dry fuels across the area from the prolonged drought.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 52 36 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 54 31 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 54 35 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 55 35 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 52 35 59 43 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 52 35 59 43 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 54 34 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 51 33 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 53 34 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 54 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ063- 066>068-168.

Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066>068- 070>074-168.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069.

High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for FLZ069.

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ069>075-172>174.

High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST this morning through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ610-630.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ610-630.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ656-657-676.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for GMZ656-657-676.