textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 727 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening, favoring inland and SW FL.

- Heavy rain may lead to poor drainage or urban flooding across SW FL today.

- Max heat indices of 100-105 possible today through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Surface high pressure that had been anchored in the western Atlantic will start to drift to the east today and into the start of the weekend. This will weaken our easterly flow and also allow it to take more of a southeasterly direction. A weak surface high will be present in the northeastern Gulf today and Saturday, but will have little influence on weather locally. Forecast soundings show PWAT values of 1.9 to around 2 inches today with a pocket of dry air aloft between 300-500 mb. Forecast soundings show a bit more moisture for Saturday with PWAT values increasing to 2.0-2.2 inches and less dry air aloft to contend with.

Today will start off dry for much of the area, before scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon into early evening. Storms will continue to favor inland areas and SW FL, however with the weaker low level flow today, the western suburbs of the east coast metro will have a better chance of seeing storms. Can't rule out an isolated stronger storm tomorrow with strong winds the primary threat. An isolated urban flood threat will exist as well. High temps today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with max heat indices of 100-105.

Storms clear out during the late evening hours and then it should be fairly quiet overnight with just a low end chance of some coastal showers along the Atlantic coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s.

With the increased moisture on Saturday, expect a greater coverage of storms during the afternoon and early evening hours, however the highest PoPs will remain over interior portions of South FL. High temps on Saturday in the low 90s, with max heat indices again in the 100-105 range.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

As one surface high in the Atlantic slides off into the central Atlantic, another high will build into the western Atlantic early next week and remain anchored in the vicinity through at least mid week. An upper level low develops in the eastern Caribbean the end of this weekend and will meander around the region into next week. Still plenty of uncertainty on whether or not there will be any impact locally with this upper low. Towards the middle of next week, a frontal boundary will approach the southeast US as an upper level trough digs through the eastern US, however at this point the frontal boundary looks like it will struggle to make it any further south than northern FL.

Convection will continue to be primarily diurnally driven sea-breeze convection during the extended period, with the highest PoPs each day favoring inland South FL. The only exception looks to be Monday where the low level flow becomes SSE, which would bring higher rainfall chances into the east coast metro.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal. Heat indices will max out at 100-105 each afternoon with some flirtation of advisory criteria early to mid next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will become easterly and will increase to around 10 kts after 16z across the east coast terminals. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible near the east coast early this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will then focus over the interior and SW Florida later this afternoon into this evening. At KAPF, light winds this morning will increase out of the west this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Gentle southeasterly winds expected into the beginning of the upcoming weekend, with Gulf winds becoming westerly each afternoon. Seas generally 2 ft or less in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms possible each day through the weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 77 91 77 / 30 10 30 10 West Kendall 91 74 91 75 / 30 20 40 10 Opa-Locka 92 77 92 77 / 30 10 40 10 Homestead 90 77 90 77 / 20 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 90 78 / 30 10 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 89 77 89 77 / 30 10 40 10 Pembroke Pines 93 78 93 79 / 30 10 40 10 West Palm Beach 90 77 90 77 / 40 10 40 10 Boca Raton 89 77 90 78 / 30 10 40 10 Naples 90 76 90 77 / 40 20 40 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.