textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 645 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Lingering showers and storms taper off tonight with dry and calm conditions returning into tomorrow morning.

- High rainfall rates will be possible with any lingering storms, creating the potential for localized flooding across the east coast metro areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 344 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Prior forecast remains compliant and properly up-to-date with current observations. SSE winds continue to push inland across the east coast as we are seeing showers and thunderstorms begin to develop in response. Activity should continue to become more scattered in nature as the rest of the afternoon progresses, directly affecting our east coast terminals.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A rather deep mid level trough/closed low complex over the Midwest will slowly dig towards the Deep South as today progresses. The mid level low will slowly try to open up heading into Sunday as it slowly pushes southeastward, however, deep troughing will still extend into the Southeast and into the northern Gulf during this time frame. As the main trough axis will remain off to the north of the region, a weak vort max will slowly pass through the Florida Panhandle today before moving across the rest of Northern Florida tonight into Sunday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled out well off to the north over the Southeast today and this front will eventually wash out heading into tonight. Another frontal boundary will slowly push through the Southeast and towards the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. South Florida will remain well to the south of the boundary, and therefore, synoptic surface winds will generally remain south to southwesterly both today and Sunday.

While a pocket of drier air in the lower to mid levels of the atmospheric column, (between 850 and 550mb), will try to hold on through most of today, the latest forecast model soundings show that this layer will give way to deeper moisture advection especially heading into this afternoon through Sunday. With increasing moisture combined with south to southwesterly wind flow, the east coast sea breeze will remain pinned over the metro areas this afternoon and then again on Sunday. With a rather light steering flow in place, showers and thunderstorms will be relatively slow moving. This, combined with the abundance of moisture pushing into the region will result in the potential for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas for both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as well. Some of the thunderstorm activity will have the potential to become strong and contain gusty winds each afternoon especially over the Lake Region and portions of the east coast metro areas where instability will be maximized during peak diurnal heating.

Heat will be a concern throughout the weekend as high temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s across a good portion of South Florida. Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most of the region this afternoon and then once again on Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The beginning of the week will feature the rather deep mid level trough still remaining over the Southeast as well as the northern Gulf on Monday. However, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite does show mid level ridging in the western Atlantic trying to push back over the region starting later on Monday and then even more so heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, what is left of the second frontal boundary stalled out over Northern Florida as well as the Northern Gulf on Monday will gradually wash out heading into Tuesday. The western periphery of surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will then gradually shift back over the Florida Peninsula for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create a wind shift allowing for winds to become south southeasterly as Monday progresses, and then slowly becoming easterly moving towards the middle of the week.

With the influx of moisture continuing especially through monday, combined with the light south to southwest steering flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop as the sea breezes push inland. The east coast sea breeze will still remain relatively pinned for one more day on Monday, allowing for the highest chances of convection to remain over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas. With PWAT values generally looking to remain at 2.0 inches or higher during this time frame, heavy downpours and slow moving thunderstorms could continue the potential for localized flooding on Monday. While Tuesday and Wednesday will feature additional shower and thunderstorm development, the highest chances will shift and remain over the interior and southwest Florida each afternoon and evening during this time frame. High temperatures each day through the middle of the week will continue to rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. Peak heat index values will still create a heat concern during this time frame as they will range between 105 and 110 each afternoon.

Easterly winds remain firmly in place heading into the second half of the week, however, uncertainty rises in the forecast during this time frame as some of the global and ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential for another weak TUTT to make a close pass near the region. This could increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame and it will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With easterly wind flow remaining in place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame will continue to be focused over the interior as well as Southwest Florida.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR prevails overnight with light winds returning. Scattered SHRA begins to develop late tonight around 07-08Z and will eventually increase into scattered TS between 14-16Z. Periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs/VIS will be possible across the east coast terminals tomorrow from late morning through early evening. Winds will be generally SE around 10 kts with KAPF shifting to the SW for the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the weekend. These winds will gradually shift and become more southeasterly as the early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 91 80 91 / 20 50 20 80 West Kendall 77 91 76 91 / 20 50 20 80 Opa-Locka 79 92 79 91 / 20 60 20 80 Homestead 79 91 79 91 / 20 60 20 70 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 80 90 / 30 60 20 80 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 30 60 30 80 Pembroke Pines 80 91 80 91 / 20 60 20 80 West Palm Beach 77 91 77 91 / 40 70 40 80 Boca Raton 78 90 79 90 / 40 60 40 80 Naples 79 91 78 91 / 20 30 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.