textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire.

- Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The deep-layer ridging pattern continues to maintain its strength and dominance through the middle of this week. With a drier air mass also remaining in place, there are no changes from the last couple of days in terms as we will see ongoing tranquil weather across the region. Only slight changes will be slowly rising temperatures each day and winds finally weakening as the pressure gradient begins to relax. Daytime high temperatures will continue to reach the low 80s for the east coast metro and upper 80s to near 90 for the Gulf coast region as the easterly regime favors warmer temps for the Gulf region during the day and cooler at night.

One other item to monitor is the active Newman Wildfire in Collier County. The quiet weather pattern and breezy winds will allow for smoke to continue to disperse rather quickly to the point where it's generally uncontrollable. The easterly winds will push smoke towards the Gulf shore and other areas around there. As a result of this, local air quality issues are likely and can impact sensitive groups as firefighters continue to work on mitigating the fire. Additionally, smoke can contribute to lower visibilities on roadways and making driving unsafe in certain areas. Caution is advised when driving on the roadways until the fire is controlled, and vulnerable populations should consider limiting time outdoors.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Long range ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. for the end of this week and the shortwave attempts to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just 'flatten' out to an extent. As the shortwave trough then curves off northwards, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces a frontal boundary and some moisture into northern Florida and weakens the ridging pattern more substantially. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 75th percentile for this date range (April 18-20), hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and an increase in moisture availability. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations.

Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time favor a drier solution for this weekend and into early next week, and even the wetter solutions do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity at the beginning of next week.

High temperatures will continue to rise each day through the end of the week and into this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior by Friday and continuing into the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR and breezy easterly flow continues for the entire 06Z TAF period at all east coast terminals. Smoke from the Newman Fire in western Collier may result in reduced CIGs/VIS at KAPF at times.

MARINE

Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Winds decrease back to a moderate breeze beginning today, which is expected to last into the end of the week. Cautionary conditions are still expected with winds in the range of 15-20 kts, but advisory criteria is expected to be avoided. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues through the middle of this week and may persist into the end of the week as brisk onshore flow continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 69 81 69 / 10 0 0 0 West Kendall 83 65 83 65 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 82 68 82 69 / 10 0 0 0 Homestead 82 69 81 69 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 79 69 79 69 / 10 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 79 69 80 69 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 83 69 84 69 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 79 67 80 68 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 79 69 79 69 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 87 64 86 65 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ630-650- 651-670-671.

GM...None.