textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 648 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, mainly focused inland, are forecast again this afternoon and evening. Frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and isolated wind gusts to 45 mph are the primary threats.

- A moderate to major HeatRisk remains on Sunday; heat continues to build through the week.

- Smoke from Independence Day fireworks has created lower visibilities and air quality this morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Overnight visibility issues due to smoke from Independence Day fireworks should improve over the coming hours. Showers, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, will be another forecast detail as we head into the morning hours. South Florida sits on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure with the surface ridge axis lingering around the area. A light wind flow overnight will give way to a southerly to southwesterly wind over a good portion of the area except for the east coast once the onshore flow from the Atlantic sea breeze gets started. The morning coastal convective focus will shift inland with the sea breezes advancing away from the coasts.

Sunday will again be a hot day with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s and heat index values climbing above 100 across the whole area. Portions of South Florida could climb above 105 briefly but slightly drier air relative to the previous few days could mean that much of the area could remain below the formal Heat Advisory thresholds. This is something that will need to be monitored in case a short-fused Heat Advisory becomes necessary if the forecast trends warmer during the morning hours. Morning convection could act as a mitigating force while morning sunshine could make things even warmer. The HeatRisk today will generally be in the moderate to major categories across the region with the urban heat islands of both coastal metro areas having the highest (40-50 percent) chances of entering the major HeatRisk category today.

Monday stays warm with the ridge axis retreating back north which turns the surface wind flow over the region more southerly to southeasterly. The pattern will remain dominated by diurnal sea breeze circulations and the associated convective activity. Temperatures again will reach the lower to mid 90s with heat index values flirting with Heat Advisory criteria again.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Heat looks to be the main concern for the majority of the mid to late week period across South Florida. High pressure ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the peninsula, contributing to light winds and above average temperatures. A series of shortwave troughs will traverse across the Great Lakes region through the course of the week, flattening 500 mb heights across much of the mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile, the main mid-level ridge axis will remain over Florida, so H5 heights over the peninsula look to climb up to around 593 to 595 dam by next weekend. These heights would fall within the 90th percentile for this time of year according to local sounding climatology. As a result, temperatures will trend warmer, with highs in the low to mid 90s through the middle of the week and into the mid to upper 90s for the end of the week. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool is showing high chances (60% to 80%) of widespread Major HeatRisk each day through Sunday. There is even a signal for a low 20-30% chance of Extreme HeatRisk conditions across the metro areas. Overall, there is high confidence that heat indices will exceed 105 F, so Heat Advisories will likely be needed for several locations. There will be little relief overnight, with minimum temperatures looking to stay in the low 80s across parts of metro Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. These kind of conditions will affect anyone without proper hydration and cooling. It is encouraged to limit the time spent outdoors during the hottest parts of the day to reduce the risk of heat-illnes.

Surface ridging stretching across the western Atlantic and into Florida looks to keep the south to southeast wind pattern across the region through the end of the week. This pattern will favor convection for interior and southwest Florida during the late afternoon and early evening periods. Deep moisture will still remain in place on Tuesday, with PWATs in the 1.8 to 2 inch range. This will result in another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, focusing along sea-breeze and outflow boundary interactions. Locally heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be the main threats. Chances for precipitation decrease in the Wednesday through Friday period as some drier air starts to filter into the region. Some guidance indicates that a pocket of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) may reach South Florida by Thursday, which would limit thunderstorm strength and coverage. By the end of the weekend, greater moisture looks to work its way back into the region, while the influence of the SAL diminishes. This will result in chances of precipitation trending back up above 50% for most areas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Light and variable winds this morning becoming southeasterly around 10 kts this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered thunderstorms today may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 115 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The coastal waters will be under the influence of the western extension of the Atlantic subtropical ridge over the next several days. Light to gentle breezes will favor a Southeast direction over the Atlantic waters and a Southwest direction over the Gulf waters today, becoming more onshore within the seabreeze zone from late morning into the evening hours. From Tuesday through Thursday, the ridge axis may shift north of the waters, which would introduce moderate Southeast breezes. Over the next several days, showers and thunderstorms will favor the open Atlantic and Gulf waters from late night into the morning, then developing over inland areas by the afternoon into the evening, although some of these could move out over the waters. The main concern will be briefly higher winds and seas in the vicinity of any thunderstorms and their associated outflow boundaries. Looking ahead, the overall coverage of showers and storms should decrease by Tuesday and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 91 79 91 79 / 60 30 70 20 West Kendall 92 76 92 76 / 70 30 70 10 Opa-Locka 93 79 93 79 / 60 30 70 20 Homestead 92 79 92 79 / 50 30 60 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 80 91 80 / 50 30 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 91 79 91 79 / 50 20 60 20 Pembroke Pines 94 80 94 80 / 60 30 70 20 West Palm Beach 92 78 91 78 / 60 20 60 20 Boca Raton 91 79 91 79 / 50 20 60 20 Naples 91 78 91 79 / 60 50 50 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.