textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Tuesday evening. - Gusty winds continue across south Florida today, especially along the immediate east coast where gusts up to 25-30 mph are possible.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Stout mid-level ridging remains entrenched across the southeastern United States this afternoon as 500mb pressure heights remain around the 97th-99th percentile when compared to climatological norms. The ridge aloft is also represented nicely in recent ACARS soundings from SoFlo airports as a substantial amount of dry air remains in most of the vertical column with a subsidence inversion at 800- 900mb. At the surface, a sprawling ridge of high pressure remains in place across South Florida and much of the western Atlantic waters resulting in a continued gusty easterly flow at the surface across most of the region as the pressure gradient remains in place. Precipitable water values remain at or just above the 10th percentile for today's date, indicative of an atmosphere that remains anhydrous outside of an isolated sprinkle or two. A narrow layer of greater moisture at 4,000 to 5,000 feet will once again allow for the development of scattered flat-topped cumulus clouds that will remain vertically capped with height, confined to the layer by the subsidence inversion above.

Deep-layer ridging will remain the status quo over South Florida tonight into Tuesday as the pressure gradient at the surface gradually relaxes. Precipitable water values will remain between the 10th to 25th percentile during this time period, with a subsidence inversion keeping any clouds vertically capped with height. Still cannot rule out a few brisk moving light showers moving onshore across the east coast metro due to the local maxima of moisture and instability from the Gulfstream waters. Even in a dry environment, the mesoscale moisture source could still spur some non-zero threat of showers as indicated by the HRRR and a few other convective models. Have opted to go above NBM guidance (0% POP) and added in a 10-15% chance of rain along the east coast of SoFlo tomorrow morning.

A temperature gradient will continue across the region both during the day and overnight as onshore winds keep temperatures along the east coast cooler during the day and warmer overnight. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range from the upper 70s to low 80s across the east coast metro to upper 80s (even a smattering of low 90s) across the western half of South Florida. Overnight temperatures will range from the low 70s along the immediate east coast to low 60s across inland portions of the region tonight into early Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Deep layer ridging and copious amounts of dry air will remain throughout the vertical atmospheric column for much of the upcoming work week. Although surface ridging will remain entrenched across the region over the next several days, a weakening pressure gradient will result in a gradual relaxing of surface winds towards the end of the work week. Subsidence, low precipitable water values compared to historical climatological norms, and a lack of any significant rainfall & sufficient cloud cover will result in a continued warming trend across the majority of the region with the potential of high temperatures in the low 90s across the western half of South Florida by mid- week. An onshore breeze will keep high temperatures slightly cooler along the east coast but temperatures in the middle to upper 80s will be possible across the east coast metro during the second half of the week.

Mid-level ridging will gradually elongate and flatten during the second half of the week as transient lobes (troughing) of mid-level vorticity advect eastward across the central United States while a new foci of surface high pressure develops across the southeastern United States. As the mid-level trough axis advects along, 500mb flow will briefly veer northwesterly as a new axis of mid-level ridging develops over the Gulf. A plume of deeper atmospheric moisture in the boundary layer will advect into the region via the anti-cyclonic flow around this feature which will usher in higher precipitable water values and slightly higher rain chances on Sunday into early next week. While spotty showers remain possible during this portion of the extended period, significant rainfall (any substantial drought relief) remains elusive for South Florida over the next several days.

Generally speaking though, by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend there may be some low end shower chances along the east coast in the mornings, with some isolated seabreeze convection across the interior and west coast in the afternoons.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR and breezy easterly flow throughout the TAF period at all terminals. Winds may lessen slightly overnight but will once again enhance after daybreak on Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Lingering hazardous winds will continue across the Atlantic waters today into Tuesday before improving towards mid-week. ENE winds 20-25 kts with seas of 6-7 feet are expected in the southern Atlantic waters today and may also be seen briefly at times in the northern local Atlantic waters off of the Palm Beach coast. While winds and seas will subside a bit for the remainder of the week after today, cautionary conditions will continue across the Atlantic as winds and gusts likely won't drop below 15 knots through the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The high risk for deadly rip currents will most likely continue for much of the week as consistent onshore flow continues. The strong onshore flow around the surface ridge will also result in elevated surf today with breakers around 4-6 ft. As winds gradually subside later in the work week, the rip current risk should gradually abate.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 70 81 69 81 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 66 83 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 69 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 70 81 69 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 79 70 79 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 79 69 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 71 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 69 80 68 80 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 70 80 69 80 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 66 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.