textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 113 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- A weakening frontal boundary could bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon. - Warm temperatures will continue through the end of the week as high pressure builds back into the region bringing mainly dry conditions to South Florida during this time frame.

- The next frontal boundary will approach and push into the region over the weekend increasing the chances of showers Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Gusty easterly winds are also anticipated across South Florida on Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A positively tiled mid level trough will push off the Eastern Seaboard today and the trough axis will move across South Florida today and tonight. At the surface, a dissipating frontal boundary will remain stalled to the north of Lake Okeechobee. This synoptic set up will help to keep a light and sea breeze driven wind flow in place once again today. Out ahead of the front, moisture will continue to pool and increase across the region causing PWATs to rise throughout the day, ranging between 0.8 inches across the extreme southern portion of the Peninsula to 1.5 inches west of Lake Okeechobee closer to the front. Because it will take some time for moisture to increase across South Florida, most areas will remain dry throughout a good portion of the day. The only exception to this will be across the Lake Okeechobee region, where the front will be close enough to trigger enough lift and instability to support the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into early this evening. The main concern with thunderstorms will be occasional heavy downpours and brief gusty winds. High temperatures this afternoon will generally range from the lower 80s along the east and west coast to the mid to upper 80s across the interior locations.

Any lingering showers or thunderstorms will gradually dissipate later this evening due to loss of daytime heating. With light and variable winds in place along with a mainly clear sky and enough lower level moisture in place, conditions will be conducive once again for some areas of fog to develop mainly across Southwest Florida overnight into early Thursday morning. Some of the fog could become locally dense across interior portions of Southwest Florida reducing visibility to a quarter of a mile or less. Any fog that does develop will lift shortly after sunrise on Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 50s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to the upper 60s across the east coast metro areas.

Heading into Thursday, mid level troughing quickly gets pushed east and south as a large and strong mid level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains expands eastward across the Gulf and into the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, the frontal boundary stalled across Central Florida will wash out as high pressure builds back into the region. This will allow for a drier air mass to slowly build back over the region as Thursday progresses. While most areas will remain dry during the day, there could be just enough lingering lower level in place to support a brief shower or two during the afternoon as the sea breezes develop and push towards the interior. With dry air advection taking place, any shower that does develop will remain low topped and very short lived. High temperatures on Thursday will generally range from 80 along the east coast to the mid to upper 80s across the interior sections of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Strong and expansive mid level ridging will hold over the region to end the week as a surface high remains over South Florida. This will allow for a light to moderate easterly wind flow to remain in place across most of South Florida. While most areas will remain dry throughout the day, the sea breezes will develop and gradually push inland during the afternoon. Some isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out due to afternoon sea breeze collisions especially across interior locations. Any shower that does develop will be low topped, however, a brief heavy downpour cannot be ruled out over the interior portion of Southwest Florida where sea breezes collide. High temperatures on Friday will generally range from the lower 80s across the east coast to the mid to upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Moving into the upcoming weekend, the weather pattern will once again begin to change and the forecast becomes a little bit more uncertain during this time frame. A stronger mid level trough will amplify over most of the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday before swinging into the Atlantic waters heading into Sunday. At the surface, a "backdoor" frontal boundary will push southward across the Florida Peninsula on Saturday into Sunday. The uncertainty comes into play here as the latest guidance suite remains in disagreement when it comes to the intensity and timing of the parent mid level trough. Both of the GFS and ECMWF suite are in agreement that the trough axis will remain to the north of South Florida, however, the Euro suite is more aggressive with pushing a stronger trough closer to the region than the GFS suite is. This also causes the GFS suite to hold the strong ridge in place longer and does not flatten it out as much as the Euro suite does. The Euro solutions would allow for higher chances of showers and thunderstorms starting on Saturday afternoon into Sunday, while the GFS solution would delay the higher chances to Sunday. The latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models keeping a higher chances of showers in place Saturday night into Sunday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

In any event, another variable will be the potential for a very strong pressure gradient to set up over the region on Sunday as a large and stout area of high pressure centered to the north tries to build in behind the front. This will create the potential for strong easterly winds creating gusty conditions throughout the day on Sunday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

Heading into the early portion of next week, mid level ridging will gradually push back into the region from the Gulf while high pressure centered off to the northeast shifts into the western Atlantic. With the pressure gradient remaining tight into early next week, the breezy easterly wind flow will remain in place which will allow for the possibility of fast moving showers especially across the eastern half of the region along the breeze. High temperatures early next week should be right around climatological normals for this time of year.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 113 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR prevails for the period. SE winds this afternoon around 10-12 kts with SW winds at KAPF. Light winds return after 01-02Z this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A light to gentle variable breeze will remain in place throughout most of the day across the local waters, however, this may give way to a moderate southeasterly breeze across the Atlantic waters later in the day. A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will then remain in place across most of the local waters through the rest of the week. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may shift and become WNW as a Gulf breeze develops each afternoon. Seas across the northern Atlantic waters will become hazardous today as they will range from 6 to 8 feet through the early evening hours as a northeasterly swell pushes into the region. These seas should gradually diminish later tonight into Thursday. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through Thursday.

BEACHES

Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A high risk of rip currents will develop along the Palm Beaches today as a northeasterly swell pushes into the northern Atlantic waters. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 68 82 69 82 / 0 10 0 20 West Kendall 62 84 65 85 / 0 10 0 20 Opa-Locka 66 83 68 84 / 0 10 0 20 Homestead 66 82 68 83 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Lauderdale 68 80 70 80 / 10 0 0 20 N Ft Lauderdale 69 80 70 81 / 10 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 68 84 69 85 / 0 10 0 20 West Palm Beach 67 81 68 81 / 10 10 0 10 Boca Raton 69 80 69 81 / 10 10 0 10 Naples 64 84 65 86 / 10 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.