textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 143 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Breezy conditions persist through the rest of this afternoon.

- Hazardous marine conditions will continue through Monday morning across the Atlantic waters.

- Warm and dry conditions expected for much of the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 143 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

No changes to the previous forecast needed to be made as everything looks on track. Winds will continue to veer and gradually become south southwesterly heading into tonight out ahead of an approaching cold front. While winds will still remain gusty this afternoon, these winds will gradually diminish as the evening progresses. The latest CAMs continue to line up with the current thinking that a line of showers will move through the area late tonight into Monday morning out ahead of the frontal boundary. With the best dynamics and instability moving well off to the northeast of the region, the line of showers will be broken and in a diminishing state as it pushes across South Florida overnight into Monday morning. Chances for thunderstorms will be very limited, however, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over the local waters where instability will be a bit higher then over the land areas. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region and interior portions of Southwest Florida to the upper 60s across the east coast metro areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

A closed low / shortwave over the Southern Mississippi Valley will continue eastward through the day. As it begins to feel the effects from a second shortwave over the Great Lakes Region, it will gradually open up and be pulled northward into the northern stream longwave pattern. At the surface, the southernmost low will weaken and the system fills and will eventually absorb into the new low that develops along the Eastern Seaboard with the secondary and superpositioning waves.

As the aforementioned evolution takes place, the forward speed of the surface front will slow and allow a pre-frontal squall to pass across Florida. With the best dynamics weakening/departing, the lack of a strong surface focus, and the nocturnal arrival time, it appears as though we will be welcoming a weakening and broken line of showers with the best chance of a storm across the Atlantic or Gulf waters. Unfortunately, widespread meaningful rain is not forecast with this frontal passage.

The main impacts we'll see with this system will likely be today in the form of gusty winds. The still relatively strong low and the departing surface ridge will result in a decent pressure gradient and bring gusts around 20-25 mph at times across the interior and occasional gusts as high as 30 mph along the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Behind Monday's front, a low-amplitude upper-level ridge will build in across the Deep South and remain in place for much of the week. At the surface, light easterly flow will gradually veer to southwesterly through the week. Deep layer dry air will keep rain chances almost non-existent with the exception of a few inconsequential, brief showers from time to time.

Ensemble guidance suggests the low/mid level ridge strength could be in 90th percentile for this time of year. And the European ensemble translates this to afternoon high temperatures in the top quartile compared to model forecasts for this time of year. All this to say that the big story this week will be the dry conditions and warming temperatures. Highs will likely reach the upper 80s by the end of the week (especially across the interior).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

A gusty SSE wind flow will continue across the terminals for the rest of this afternoon before diminishing and becoming SSW tonight out ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusts will generally remain around 25 kts this afternoon, however, an occasional gust to 30 kts cannot be ruled out across the east coast terminals. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible overnight into Monday morning as the front pushes through. Behind the front, winds will gradually become WNW late Monday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Winds will transition to southerly through the day as they increase and become gusty. Expect a sustained Fresh Breeze across Atlantic waters, with gusts to the Strong Breeze level. In the Gulf, a Gentle to Moderate Breeze will prevail. Showers and an isolated storm will be possible across the Gulf and Atlantic waters late tonight through Monday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic coastal waters through Monday morning. Winds will subside quickly in the wake of the frontal boundary, but a northerly swell behind the departing low will result in an uptick in seas across the Gulf Stream. Seas will begin increasing on Tuesday, peak on Wednesday, and subside by the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

A high risk of rip currents is forecast today along Atlantic Beaches due to the strong winds and longshore currents. While the rip risk may briefly subside on Monday, it's expected to increase once again as northerly swell spreads down the Atlantic coast through mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 68 83 65 78 / 30 20 0 0 West Kendall 63 84 60 80 / 30 20 0 0 Opa-Locka 67 84 64 80 / 30 20 0 0 Homestead 67 83 64 80 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 67 82 65 77 / 30 20 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 67 82 65 77 / 30 20 10 0 Pembroke Pines 67 84 64 80 / 30 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 66 81 63 77 / 40 20 10 0 Boca Raton 66 82 64 78 / 40 20 10 0 Naples 65 76 58 80 / 40 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.