textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Isolated shower activity will remain possible along the east coast of South Florida today and again on Christmas Day. - A high risk of rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through this evening.

- Below average temperatures are possible early next week as a strong frontal boundary is forecast to move across the region. Specifics will become clearer over the next several days.

UPDATE

Issued at 1203 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Overall it's looking good for Santa's visit across South FL tonight. He may be dodging some occasional coastal showers overnight, but nothing that will prevent presents from being delivered. Some patchy fog was also added to the forecast around the lake region early Christmas morning. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 125 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Mesoanalysis and upper air sounding data (ACARS, GOES-East, ROAB) continue to depict the influence of high pressure throughout the vertical column across South Florida this morning. Aside from the subsidence inversion courtesy of mid-level ridging that we will discuss below, surface winds have continued to wane in intensity. The decoupling of surface winds inland due to nocturnal stratification of the atmosphere has resulted the development of a sharp temperature gradient across the region as light northerly drainage flow has resulted in temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s across most of South Florida at this hour. However, along the immediate east coast (ex: barrier islands) of South Florida, northeasterly winds at the surface are still elevated enough to keep temperatures slightly higher in the low 70s. Always an interesting mesoscale phenomena to observe on the east coast of South Florida this time of year when there can be a very sharp gradient over a relatively small distance.

The axis of surface high pressure will gradually advect southward today, elongating and gradually waning in intensity while being centered over the western Atlantic waters and northern Florida. Anticyclonic flow around this feature will maintain a northeasterly to east-northeasterly breeze. While the atmospheric column will remain mainly dry, this pattern once again presents some low-end (10- 20%) potential for intermittent isolated shower activity across portions of the region with the potential of pockets of slightly higher atmospheric moisture content (mainly within the bottom 1km to 2km of the boundary layer) rotating into the region. Similar to the last several nights, the NBM (National Blend of Models) guidance has been too low with precipitation chances along the east coast of South Florida. Have bumped up rain chances just a tad to the 10-20% range for today in the forecast for the east coast metro of South Florida. Although the pressure gradient will continue to relax today with lower wind speeds overland during the day, there will still be a subtle temperature gradient across the region this afternoon with high temperatures in the upper 70s along the east coast and temps in the low 80s across southwestern Florida.

The tandem of mid-level ridging and waning surface high pressure will remain with us on Christmas Day as surface winds become light out of a northerly direction overnight (courtesy of anticyclonic flow) before veering onshore along both coasts during the afternoon hours. Light winds overnight and clear skies will result in enough radiational cooling to give the region a cool start to Christmas Day with forecast wake-up temperatures in the low to mid 50s west of Lake Okeechobee, upper 50s to low 60s across the Gulf coast and inland southwestern Florida and low temperatures in the 60s along the east coast of South Florida. Patches of dense fog may also materialize near Lake Okeechobee during the late overnight and early morning hours of Christmas Day as winds decouple and a nocturnal inversion develops.Drier conditions are forecast during this time period as the axis of both surface and mid-level high pressure remains close enough to South Florida with copious amounts of dry air. High temperatures will trend slightly warmer on Christmas Day with forecast high temperatures remaining mainly in the low 80s area- wide.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 125 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

The status quo, rinse and repeat pattern of deep layer high pressure's influence across the region continues Friday into the weekend as ensemble and deterministic guidance indicates that the axis of high pressure (surface and mid-level) will advect directly overhead of South Florida. This will result in light and variable winds during much of this time frame with winds veering onshore during the afternoon hours along both coasts. Dry air will remain prevalent in the vertical column, but still cannot rule out a rogue isolated shower or two on any mesoscale convergent boundary. With light winds, clear skies, nocturnal inversions, and residual surface moisture; there will be the potential of some dense fog across inland areas each night. While spatial extent and severity of overnight fog may vary from day to day, it could be impactful for any post-holiday travel during this time frame. Temperatures will remain near or just above seasonal norms (upper 70s to low 80s) Friday through Sunday. Overnight temperatures during this period will also remain consistent with forecast lows in the low to mid 50s west of Lake Okeechobee, mid to upper 50s across the Naples metro, and temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s along the east coast of South Florida.

Long range guidance over the past 24 hours continues to indicate a pattern change across our region (as well as the eastern United States) early next week. The influence of mid-level ridging will erode as a strong mid-level trough advects eastward across the Great Lakes region. As we discussed last night, an attendant surface frontal boundary associated with the surface signal (low pressure) of the mid-level trough, is depicted on the models sweeping across the southeastern United States and passing over our area Monday into Tuesday. The consensus of model guidance over the past 24 hours continues to suggest that colder temperatures (potentially below average for seasonal norms) could materialize behind that aforementioned strong cold front passage. Now for a brief word of caution (or wisdom perhaps), it is best to not get anchored on specific deterministic temperature values in the mid to long range period. Deviations on upstream weather features (low pressure placement, timing of frontal passage, high pressure strength) may cause additional changes in forecast guidance over the next several days. The latest runs have trended slightly warmer than what was depicted with the 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance last night. However that being said, there is still plenty of time for model guidance to trend in either direction, so be sure to check back in on the forecast later this week or during the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds will remain light and variable tonight across all terminals. Some patchy fog may develop over the interior sections, however, this fog should not impact any of the terminals. Isolated shower activity will be possible near the east coast terminals overnight into Thursday morning. Winds increase out of the NE after 16z Thursday and will range between 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 125 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Northeasterly winds will remain moderate to fresh across the local Atlantic waters, with continued SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions persisting through early Thursday. Winds across the Gulf waters will veer northerly to northwesterly late today, remaining gentle to moderate. Wave heights will continue to trend lower with forecast heights of 1-2 feet in the Gulf and 3-4 feet in the Atlantic. A few additional isolated showers remain possible over the Atlantic waters today. Winds and waves will continue to lessen over the next several days.

BEACHES

Issued at 125 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

A high risk of rip currents will persist at all east coast beaches today as a persistent onshore breeze continues. The threat of rip currents will lessen overnight, remaining in the moderate risk category at Palm Beach beaches on Christmas Day and through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 67 80 64 80 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 62 81 58 81 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 66 81 63 81 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 66 80 62 80 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 67 79 63 79 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 67 80 63 79 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 65 81 62 81 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 64 80 61 80 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 66 81 63 80 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 60 81 60 79 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.