textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 703 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

- High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Wednesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats.

- Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Rinse and repeat weather pattern similar to what we've seen the last few days across South Florida. A cut-off upper low will continue to meander near the Bahamas, edging slightly closer to Florida through the middle of the week. This disturbance looks to advect a few vorticity impulses into the vicinity of Florida's eastern coastline. This will provide some extra forcing for isolated to scattered showers to develop along the instability ridden Gulfstream waters during the overnight and morning hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The 00z MFL sounding shows quite a moist environment, with a PWAT of 1.91 inches and high relative humidity values from top to bottom. Along with CAPE values near 2000 J/kg, this has allowed for some gusty showers to develop across Miami Dade over the last few hours. Light showers should continue through the early morning hours before activity then shifts to sea-breeze induced thunderstorms over interior and southwest Florida. Predominant easterly flow should once again keep the Gulf breeze pinned closer to the coastline, so highest PoPs and strongest storms will favor coastal Monroe and Collier counties for both today and Wednesday.

Thermodynamics will be similar to the last few days, with steep low level lapse rates and surface based CAPE values up to 3000 J/kg. Weak forcing, weak steering flow, and weak shear, will make for most activity to be pulse-y and slow moving, with new updrafts mainly forming along collision boundaries. Model forecast soundings and upper level water vapor imagery seem to indicate that some increased mid-level dry air will work its way into the region over the next couple of days. This may be part of the reason as to why models have trended slightly drier for Tuesday's activity. This may also serve to suppress more mature storm growth, so confidence for any strong to severe thunderstorms is once again very low and most activity should remain relatively low topped. On the flip side, "if" thunderstorms grow big enough (and that's a big "if" given the weak mid-level lapse rates), the drier mid-level air could help induce a few stronger wind gusts, which is supported by DCAPE values near 750 J/kg. What is described above would also be true for Wednesday's activity, except conditions trend slightly drier with PWATs dropping into the 1.4 to 1.5 inch range.

Overall, the main threats will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Rain amounts will generally be between 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with locally heavier amounts of 3 to 5 inches under stronger storms. Generally breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 28 mph across the region during the afternoon. High temperatures slightly above average, in the upper 80s to low 90s, will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all metro areas. Nighttime lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s near the coasts and lower 70s inland.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

The pattern will remain generally unchanged for the latter part of the week and through the weekend, with upper level ridging extending across the Gulf and the aforementioned upper level low continuing to meander over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters and extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining healthy moisture advection along the atmospheric column. Ensemble guidance places PWAT values during the period solidly near the climatological normals for this time of year (1.5- 1.7 inches) while model soundings show this moisture permeating the whole column (and not just the lower levels like was the case earlier this month).

With prevailing easterly flow and ample moisture in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries each afternoon. Although some isolated activity will likely develop over the East Coast metro early each afternoon, the better chances for more widespread activity (in the 50-70% range) will be spread out across southwest Florida and the interior where the sea breezes are forecast to meet each day.

Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), although some of the shower activity could help provide some brief, localized relief and help temper conditions. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 703 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Isolated to scattered vicinity showers continue through the morning hours along the eastern areas, which may create brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts will persist through the period with gusts up to 25 kts during the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms will favor interior and southwest Florida later this afternoon, mainly affecting KAPF.

MARINE

Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected to continue through the rest of today across the Atlantic waters due to persistent easterly winds of 15 to 20 kts. Winds look to weaken slightly for the latter half of the week. Isolated weak showers are possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning each day this week. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will favor the Gulf coast and Gulf waters, where gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any storm. Atlantic seas will be 2-4 feet through the rest of the week, while the Gulf will remain 2 feet or less.

BEACHES

Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Continued High Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches through the middle of the week due to persistent easterly flow. Guidance is beginning to show that the risk of rip currents will start to taper off towards the latter half of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 86 77 87 77 / 40 20 30 10 West Kendall 88 74 89 74 / 50 20 40 10 Opa-Locka 88 77 89 77 / 40 20 20 10 Homestead 87 76 88 76 / 50 30 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 85 78 86 78 / 30 20 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 77 86 77 / 30 20 30 10 Pembroke Pines 89 78 90 78 / 40 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 86 77 86 77 / 30 20 20 0 Boca Raton 86 78 86 78 / 20 20 20 10 Naples 91 74 91 74 / 70 10 80 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.