textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Moderate risk of rip currents for all South Florida beaches tonight. - A warming trend will develop this week and temperatures will remain above average throughout most of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 141 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

As the mid level shortwave continues to push into the western Atlantic, a large and expansive mid level ridge will extend across the Gulf and this ridge will continue to expand northeastward across the Florida Peninsula tonight into Tuesday. At the surface, a large area of high pressure centered off to the north tonight will slowly start to shift into the western Atlantic on Tuesday. This will allow for a light northeasterly wind flow tonight to shift and become more easterly heading into Tuesday. As the sky clears out tonight, there will be just enough lower level moisture in place to support some patchy fog development mainly over interior portions of Southwest Florida. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across Southwest Florida to the lower to mid 60s across the east coast metro areas.

Any fog that does develop will gradually lift shortly after sunrise on Tuesday. While high pressure will help to keep most areas dry on Tuesday, some lower level moisture advection will take place along the easterly wind flow which will raise PWAT values slightly and these values will range between 0.8 and 1.0 inches during the afternoon. This will be just enough lower level moisture advection to support the possibility of isolated shower activity mainly over the eastern half of the region on Tuesday. With an abundance of dry air aloft, any shower that does develop will remain low topped and relatively short lived. High temperatures on Tuesday will generally range from the upper 70s along the east coast to the lower to mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Long range model solutions show deep-layered high pressure remaining in control of the region through the forecast period with a relatively drier and stable airmass in place.

No measurable POPs are anticipated through the rest of the week, outside of maybe a brief coastal shower later in the week. Cloud cover will also decrease each day, allowing for afternoon highs to climb into the mid-upper 80s for the second half of the forecast period. Won't be too surprising if some interior areas reach the 90 degrees mark Friday/Saturday afternoon.

The next potential rainmaker may approach the area on Sunday, but model confidence remains low attm regarding timing and possible impacts across the area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will continue to diminish and become light across all terminals as the evening progresses. These winds will then increase out of the east after 15z Tuesday morning across the east coast terminals and will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon. At KAPF, winds will become WSW late Tuesday afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 141 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

A moderate to fresh west northwesterly breeze this afternoon will gradually shift and become northeasterly across most of the local waters tonight. These winds will continue to shift on Tuesday becoming easterly across most of the local waters as the day progresses. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters where a shift back to the northwest will occur on Tuesday afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters on Tuesday will range from 4 to 6 feet while seas across the Gulf will remain at 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers will be possible over the Atlantic waters on Tuesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today for all South Florida beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 64 78 67 80 / 10 20 10 0 West Kendall 60 80 63 82 / 10 20 0 0 Opa-Locka 63 80 65 81 / 10 20 10 0 Homestead 64 80 67 80 / 10 20 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 64 76 66 78 / 10 20 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 64 76 66 79 / 10 20 10 0 Pembroke Pines 64 80 65 82 / 10 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 63 77 65 80 / 20 20 0 0 Boca Raton 63 77 65 80 / 10 20 10 0 Naples 59 80 61 80 / 0 10 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.