textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 550 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Dry and comfortable weather continues through tonight, when chances for rain start to increase ahead a frontal approach.

- Above average temperatures continue today with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 202 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

The adjustment to the ongoing forecast scenario is the push of a secondary frontal boundary on Monday, which also pushes the lingering decaying boundary over central Florida into SoFlo by Monday morning. Latest ensembles and NBM solutions show the main front finally pushing across SoFlo from early Monday morning through the afternoon hours. It should then reach the Florida Keys by Mon early evening, but this timing might be adjusted depending on the migration of the parent low system further north.

For today, the aforementioned front/low activity will weaken the mid/uppr lvl ridging aloft, and allow for chances of rain to begin increasing from north to south starting later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Ahead of the front, prevailing S/SW flow will keep afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 80s today.

Latest model PWATs remain around 1.5 to 1.8 inches, with the bulk of the rain activity most likely happening between early morning and early afternoon on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible as the ridge aloft erodes and the air mass becomes more unstable. But overall thermodynamic parameters don't look too supportive for deep convection, as depicted by deterministic guidance like CAM. But a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms can't be rule out, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

Rainfall accumulations should remain below 1 inch for most of the area, but there is a 1 in 10 chances that some spots in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee could get 1-2 inches of rain throughout the day on Monday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Periods of VCSH/VCTS will begin to develop overnight and into the morning hours as a frontal boundary reaches the area. TAFs might require tempos around the 15-22Z period, for which prob30s are now in place. As shower and thunderstorm activity spreads across the area, local MVFR/IFR conditions are possible at times. SSW winds are expected to become L/V overnight, then SW/W after 15Z ahead of the front, and finally shifting more northerly behind the front this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1237 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Generally benign boating conditions prevail over the weekend as light to moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze persists. Seas are forecast to remain at 1-3 feet across all local waters. As we head into next week, conditions could deteriorate as winds increase and veer from the north with a frontal passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 73 85 67 76 / 10 60 20 20 West Kendall 70 85 64 78 / 10 60 10 20 Opa-Locka 72 85 65 78 / 20 60 20 20 Homestead 72 85 66 78 / 10 50 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 72 84 66 76 / 20 70 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 84 66 76 / 20 70 10 10 Pembroke Pines 72 85 65 78 / 20 70 20 20 West Palm Beach 71 83 65 76 / 30 70 10 10 Boca Raton 71 84 66 77 / 20 70 20 10 Naples 72 81 61 77 / 50 50 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.