textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 715 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Moderate coastal flooding is expected with each high tide cycle. Major coastal flooding is possible late this weekend into early next week. - Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is possible across the east coast metros today through Monday.

- Strong winds, with gusts over 35 mph are possible today through Monday night.

- Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected through the middle of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 324 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A complex weather pattern is set up for today and into early this coming week as an omega block ridge over the central U.S. creates a primarily meridional flow pattern with steady northerly flow in the mid-levels and upper-levels of the atmosphere. An elongated north-to- south trough is set up just east of this ridge block over the western Atlantic and extending into the Atlantic coastline across the Eastern Seaboard. Additionally, this results in surface high pressure underneath this upper-level setup being stout as well, with a strong pressure gradient setting up that is expected to bring increasingly gusty winds to South Florida. The surface high will be centered in the Northeast U.S. with a surface trough off the coast. This pattern could lead to us approaching Wind Advisory criteria on Monday, especially along the east coastline, but probabilities are not high enough currently to result in enough confidence to issue an advisory yet. Regardless, sustained NE winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-35 mph are likely and occasional gusts to 40 mph are certainly possible.

In terms of convective potential today, the main drivers will be vorticity advection from the nearby elongated trough and speed/friction convergence created by strong NE flow rushing into less strong winds over land. This type of convergence can lead to numerous pop up showers and storms, but typically not as long lasting or tall as in a typical low level convergence setup. Nevertheless, expect scattered to numerous showers today primarily across the east coast metro with some embedded storms. With how scattered convection is expected to be along with the brisk flow leading to fast-moving showers and storms, concerns are low for excessive rainfall across the region. Additionally, deep convection is typically hard to come by in these types of setups. However, an isolated occurrence or two for localized flooding still cannot be ruled out due to training activity, but the risk overall across the region is not high.

As we move into Monday, most of the ensemble members and short range model guidance show the deepest moisture advecting offshore and thus there will be an even lesser risk for convective and hydro hazards on Monday. Some level of scattered shower activity is still likely, but less than today and once again any convection will be fast moving. High temperatures are expected in the low to mid 80s for most areas with parts of Southwest Florida reaching the upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 324 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

While not much of a legend down here as it is up in the Great Lakes, it appears that the gales of November may indeed come early for South Florida. Breezy 25 to 35 mph wind gusts will continue to be common Monday night through Tuesday morning. Strong surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states will continue to induce a tight pressure gradient along the Florida Atlantic coast through the end of the week. As a result, breezy conditions will continue at least through Wednesday. As discussed in the short term discussion, whether a wind advisory will also be needed for the Monday night and Tuesday period is still up for debate. It seems that the most likely areas to see sustained winds of 30 mph or greater is along the immediate coasts of Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach counties. Probabilities for advisory criteria winds are only at about 40%, so most areas will likely only see sustained winds of around 20 mph. Pressure gradients begin to relax near the middle of the week, which will finally lead to some calming of the winds. However, surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard will keep the same overall pattern in place, with northeast winds persisting into next weekend at around 10 to 15 mph.

Ensemble clusters are showing relatively good agreement regarding the upper level pattern heading into the middle of the week. A series of shortwave perturbations moving over the intermountain west will begin to flatten and steer high pressure over the Gulf and Deep South. Meanwhile, a cut off low over the Bahamas will begin to eject out into the Atlantic by Wednesday, which should allow for the weather to become a little less unsettled. As the mid- level ridge begins to exert greater influence over South Florida, chances of precipitation will decline and high temperatures look to climb back up into the upper 80s. The cut off low near the Bahamas will help transport some increased moisture into the northern Caribbean, with PWATs looking to climb to near 1.8 inches over South Florida (if the systems stays close enough to our area). Overall, this northeasterly flow pattern will favor scattered showers and storms coming off of the Gulf Stream waters for most of the week. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats, but there is currently no risk of excessive rainfall after Tuesday. A more typical sea breeze induced convective pattern will likely return once northeast winds weaken towards the end of the week.

The potential for moderate and major tidal flooding may continue during the middle portions of the week. This tidal flooding may also be exacerbated by coastal showers and strong northeast winds, which could lead to significant water rises along the far eastern metro areas. While the peak tides will be during the beginning to middle of the week, moderate coastal flooding may persist through the end of the week as we come out of this full moon phase.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 715 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected across all South Florida terminals today except for brief periods of sub-VFR within showers and thunderstorms. A land breeze/NNW winds this morning across east coast terminals will veer to a NNE direction by around 13-14Z and become quite gusty with peak gusts throughout much of the forecast period oscillating between 25 and 30 kts across all South Florida terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 324 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue the rest of this weekend and into the middle of this coming week. Strong northeasterly winds will increase up to 25-35 kts by tonight and into early this week, with the strongest winds expected at Gale Force over the Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are also expected to develop along the Atlantic over the next several days. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and locally higher seas will be a threat with any storm. Seas are currently forecast to peak around 6-9 feet in the Gulf and 10-14 feet across the Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday. High seas and breezy conditions will persist through at least the middle of the week, before conditions finally start to relax during the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 324 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A high risk of rip currents will persist for all Atlantic beaches through at least the middle of this week. Dangerous surf heights of 10 to 12 feet may be possible for the Palm Beaches through at least Tuesday.

Furthermore, strong onshore wind flow and high seas may combine with King Tides to increase the threat of coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast. Currently, it is expected that moderate flooding will occur through today, with potential to reach major flood stage on Monday and Tuesday. This situation will be assessed further, but for now a Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the Mon-Tue time frame as we continue to monitor the potential for major tidal flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 83 74 83 74 / 80 70 60 60 West Kendall 84 73 84 74 / 70 60 60 50 Opa-Locka 84 74 84 74 / 90 80 60 60 Homestead 84 73 84 74 / 80 70 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 82 74 82 74 / 90 80 70 70 N Ft Lauderdale 82 74 83 75 / 90 80 70 70 Pembroke Pines 84 73 84 74 / 90 80 60 60 West Palm Beach 82 73 83 74 / 90 70 70 60 Boca Raton 82 74 82 75 / 90 80 80 70 Naples 85 71 86 71 / 30 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.

Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ610-630.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ650- 651-670-671.

Gale Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for AMZ650-651-670-671.

Gale Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for AMZ650-651-670-671.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.