textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop today with the highest chances remaining over the interior sections.

- Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most areas this afternoon

- Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the week will introduce a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A mid level low will meander across Georgia, the western Carolinas, and the Tennessee River Valley today and tonight as strong mid level ridging over the western Atlantic keeps it blocked from progressing eastward. This mid level low will gradually open up and will be pulled northeastward on Wednesday eventually interacting with and getting absorbed by another trough digging down into the Northern Plains. As this happens, this will allow for mid level ridging in the western Atlantic to gradually extend towards South Florida heading into Wednesday. At the surface, A stationary boundary over the Southeast will gradually washout out as today progresses and an area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will gradually start to push over the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf through Wednesday.

Winds across the region today will remain rather light and sea breeze driven, however, it is important to note that the general steering flow will slowly try to shift today, becoming more south to southeasterly as the day progresses. Plenty of moisture will still remain in place over the region as PWAT values remain high, (generally between 2.1 and 2.3 inches across the area this afternoon). This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breezes as they push inland. With the steering flow remaining light out of the south southeast, the highest coverage of convection will try to shift over towards the interior this afternoon. However, since the steering flow will be light, showers and storms may still drift back over the portions of the east coast metro areas later in the afternoon when storm motion generally become dependent on thunderstorm outflow boundaries. Storm motion will still remain slow and high rainfall rates will continue to occur with the stronger storms due to the abundance of moisture in place.

On Wednesday as the mid level ridging builds closer to the region and the surface high extends over South Florida and into the eastern Gulf, easterly wind flow will develop and will gradually increase as the day progresses. This will allow for the east coast sea breeze to push further inland, focusing the highest chances of shower and thunderstorm development over the interior and into Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. Some strong thunderstorm development containing gusty winds cannot be ruled out especially over Southwest Florida where mesoscale boundary collisions take place and where instability is maximized.

High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida today and Wednesday. Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 each afternoon. This will result in a widespread moderate HeatRisk mainly across the metro areas across South Florida. However, there is a low end chance (around 20 percent) of seeing the HeatRisk go into the Major category across portions of the east coast metro areas as well as Southwest Florida today and Wednesday. The major category is heat that could affect anyone without cooling or proper hydration.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Heading into Thursday, the mid-level western Atlantic ridge continues to build west towards the East Coast, while surface high pressure remains in place over the Florida Peninsula. With deep tropical moisture in place (PWATs around 2.0-2.2 inches) and persistent light easterly flow, diurnal convection will be once again largely focused over the interior and Southwest Florida. However, ample moisture will still support scattered morning and late afternoon showers along the East Coast. Meanwhile, global and ensemble guidance continues to depict a TUTT feature traversing just north of the Bahamas and approaching the Florida Peninsula Thursday into Friday. By Friday, the overall synoptic picture will hinge on the influence of this disturbance as it tracks along the periphery of the Bermuda high. Guidance remains split on its exact track and degree of influence over South Florida. One global ensemble suite brings the disturbance closer to the peninsula, enhancing upper level support for convection, while another keeps the TUTT further northeast off the Atlantic coast. Regardless of which scenario unfolds, the vast majority of ensemble members cluster around low- end QPF values (0.1 to 0.5 inches), suggesting that widespread heavy accumulation is unlikely outside of any isolated outlier.

Heading into Saturday and Sunday, the mid-level western Atlantic ridge re-establishes its dominance over South Florida, maintaining a prevailing light to moderate southeasterly flow. A drier airmass will filter into the region, with PWATs dropping into the 1.6-1.8 inch range, below climatological norms for this time of year. This drier profile should act to further suppress widespread convective activity. However, localized sea-breeze boundaries interacting with lingering low-level moisture could still trigger isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily concentrated over the interior and Southwest Florida. With the robust ridge remaining entrenched, a warming trend will take hold through the weekend and persist into the beginning of next week. Highs will climb into the low 90s, just above seasonal norms, while peak heat index values reach 105-110 F. Heat impacts are expected to become an increasing concern, particularly across the East Coast metro areas and Southwest Florida, where Moderate to Major HeatRisk is currently forecast on Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the SSE across the east coast terminals to around 10 kts after 14Z. Scattered showers and storms will develop near the east coast terminals in the late morning hours. At KAPF, winds will increase to around 10 kts out of the SW in the early afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Light to gentle winds across most of the local waters will slowly start to increase tonight into Wednesday as they shift and become east southeasterly. Easterly winds become moderate across most of the local waters during the second half of the week. These winds could become occasionally fresh over the Atlantic waters during this time frame. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually start to increase during the second half of the week as a disturbance approaches from the east. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day.

BEACHES

Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Easterly winds will gradually increase heading into the second half of the week. This will allow for the rip current risk to become high during this time frame across the Atlantic Coast beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 91 79 90 80 / 70 30 40 30 West Kendall 91 77 90 77 / 80 30 50 20 Opa-Locka 92 79 91 80 / 70 30 50 30 Homestead 91 78 90 79 / 70 30 50 30 Fort Lauderdale 90 79 89 80 / 60 30 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 90 79 90 80 / 70 30 50 30 Pembroke Pines 91 79 90 81 / 70 30 50 30 West Palm Beach 91 77 90 79 / 60 20 60 20 Boca Raton 90 78 89 80 / 60 20 50 30 Naples 91 77 91 76 / 50 30 80 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.