textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 715 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early evening, mainly across Southeast Florida.

- Elevated risk of rip currents today for the Palm Beaches.

- Temperatures remain above normal for the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

A decaying frontal boundary will continue to wash out as it sags southwards for the end of this week. As the boundary washes out and stalls over the Florida Straits, drier air (especially mid-level and upper-level dry air) will advect into the local atmosphere and create some inhibition for convection over the next several days. Thus, shower and thunderstorm development over land areas today will be a result of sea breeze development and convergence among boundaries. Overall, not expecting much in the way of strong showers or storms given the inhibiting factors at play, but an interesting feature looks to be the development of a surface low at some point later today and into tonight along the east coast. The development of this feature is shown on the short range guidance and may provide enough instability and surface vorticity for a quick spin-up as well as an isolated strong storm later this afternoon or evening. Otherwise, a more meager convective day is expected today in a large scale sense.

For Friday, the focus will be on this surface low propagating west- southwestwards across the southern Florida Peninsula and providing a source of lift to end the week. The mid-level and upper-level dry air will still inhibit storm growth on Friday, but the same factors will be in play that can cause an isolated strong storm or two and even a quick-spin up. High temps will remain above normal on Thursday and Friday ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across most areas.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

This weekend into next week will see upper level high pressure settling into the Gulf while an upper low will settle into the eastern Carribean. Surface high pressure will be anchored into the western Atlantic and expand over the SE U.S. while an upper level ridge simultaneously starts to build over the area. This will create a moderate easterly flow across South FL for much of the period. Convection will be more of a typical summertime pattern with diurnally driven storms during the afternoon and early evening hours each day, with the highest PoPs favoring inland and SW FL. For the overnight hours, coastal showers and isolated storms would be expected. PoPs are a touch higher than what we would expect to see for this time of year as some additional moisture is tapped into from the upper low over the eastern Carribean.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 715 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Light southwesterly winds will veer onshore (SErly) along the east coast of South Florida by 17-19z with winds at KAPF veering out of the west-northwest. SHRA/isolated TSRA is forecast to develop along the east coast of South Florida this afternoon which may bring sub-VFR cigs/vis to any terminal impacted. Confidence remains low for coverage so have maintained VCSH for now, however TEMPOs may be needed in future updates.

MARINE

Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

A gentle to moderate west to northwest breeze is expected across the local waters today that will become more variable on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas, with higher chances for showers and storms being over the Atlantic waters. Atlantic seas for the end of this week are expected at 2-4 feet with Gulf seas at 2 feet or less.

BEACHES

Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

A moderate risk for rip currents is in effect for the Palm beaches today while elsewhere the risk should be on the lower side.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 75 89 77 / 30 20 20 10 West Kendall 92 71 91 73 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 91 75 90 77 / 30 20 20 10 Homestead 91 73 90 76 / 20 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 88 77 87 78 / 30 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 88 76 87 77 / 30 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 93 77 92 78 / 30 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 87 75 87 77 / 20 10 20 10 Boca Raton 88 77 87 78 / 30 10 10 10 Naples 88 72 91 74 / 0 0 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.