textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1253 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Minor coastal flooding expected during times of high tide.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 341 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

The drying trend continues on guidance with little or no rain activity anticipated for the start of the weekend. Models show a weak frontal boundary over the Se CONUS slowly migrating southward and into the northern portions of the peninsula. Consensus keeps the parent trough/low complex and its associated dynamic support well north of SoFlo during the next couple of days.

Overall instability parameters remain highly suppressed across the region, even with the aforementioned front moving into northern Florida. So far, the forecast scenario brings this feature into our area as a dry FROPA, with main potential impacts being cooler temps in its wake as flow becomes northerly. Ensembles and NBM Wx/POPs coverage remains at 10% or less each day, with mainly warm and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions prevailing. Definitely, a welcomed change from the flooding issues experienced on previous days.

With better daytime heating and decreased cloud cover, expect afternoon highs to reach the mid to upper 80s each day.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 341 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

The dry weather pattern remains in guidance on Sunday as high pressure briefly descends upon the area in the wake of a relatively dry FROPA. Some lingering moisture may be enough for a few coastal showers to develop in the afternoon hours, but so far NBM keeps max POPs around 10-15% right along the east coast.

For early next week, high pressure will have broad control of the region, keeping low POPs in place and winds veering from N/NW to a more NE flow by Tuesday. Meanwhile, global models show a short wave trough feature developing over the SE CONUS, and gradually pushing into northern Florida around the late Tuesday-early Wednesday timeframe. The timing of this feature will continue to be adjusted. In the mean time, will keep following NBM's scenario, having this feature bringing a modest air mass modification for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Low-lvl moisture intrusion from the Atlantic may be enough to push POPs into the 20-30% range. This scenario will also be adjusted as new guidance becomes available.

The latest trend in guidance is also to bring a more pronounced temperature gradient as overall northerly flow develops in the wake of the FROPA. Afternoon highs should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s by early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. NE winds around 8 kt at east coast sites will become L/V overnight, then increase out of the NNE after 17Z tomorrow. An afternoon westerly Gulf breeze around 10 kt is expected to develop at KAPF, with winds becoming L/V overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 341 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Marine conditions will remain generally benign with a light to moderate NE flow in place today. Weather conditions should remain generally dry over the marine zones, with maybe an isolated shower or two in the afternoon hours. The drier trend is expected to prevail through the rest of the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 73 86 73 84 / 0 10 20 10 West Kendall 72 87 73 85 / 0 10 20 20 Opa-Locka 72 87 72 85 / 0 10 20 10 Homestead 72 86 73 85 / 0 0 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 72 84 72 82 / 0 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 85 72 83 / 0 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 71 87 71 85 / 0 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 71 85 71 83 / 0 10 10 10 Boca Raton 72 84 72 82 / 0 10 20 10 Naples 72 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.