textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. A few thunderstorms may contain strong wind gusts. Locally heavy rain may result in isolated instances of urban flooding across the east coast metro.

- Hot and humid weather continues today, with heat indices around 100 this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Unsettled couple days ahead for South FL as an upper level short wave from the southern plains exits into the Gulf and a frontal boundary will slide down the state stalling over the lake region before eventually dissipating by late Wednesday. Convection will likely take its time getting going today, but by mid to late afternoon scattered thunderstorms are expected, favoring the interior and lake region and then drifting towards the east coast metro by early evening. Tall, skinny buoyancy profiles will support several strong storms, with an isolated severe wind gust not out of the question. Deep moisture is expected with PWAT values of 1.8-2 inches. Given the deep moisture and expected weak steering flows, some localized urban flooding is possible across the east coast metro. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Convection will slowly wane this evening with full clearing not likely until well after dark this evening. Overnight low temps will range from the upper 60s over inland SW FL and the lake region, to mid and upper 70s closer to the coast.

With the short wave over the region on Wednesday and the frontal boundary still lingering across the lake region, Wednesday will be another day of above normal convection coverage, with storms developing from mid afternoon through early evening. High temps on Wednesday will again be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

An overall drier pattern is expected for the end of the week into the weekend as the shortwave moves off to the east and upper level ridging builds into the region. There will still be chances of convection each day that will mainly be diurnally driven sea-breeze convection.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the metro areas, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows will be in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Light and variable winds becoming SE 5-10 kts this afternoon with a westerly component at APF. Scattered to thunderstorms this afternoon into evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 101 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the area waters the next several days, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate SE winds expected in the Atlantic today with W to NW winds in the Gulf. Seas today 2 ft or less in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. A brief northerly swell is expected in the northern Atlantic waters late Wednesday into early Thursday which may elevate seas to near advisory criteria.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 89 76 88 75 / 60 60 80 20 West Kendall 91 73 89 71 / 60 50 80 10 Opa-Locka 90 75 89 74 / 60 70 80 20 Homestead 89 75 88 74 / 50 60 70 10 Fort Lauderdale 87 77 86 75 / 60 70 90 20 N Ft Lauderdale 87 75 86 74 / 60 70 90 30 Pembroke Pines 92 77 90 76 / 60 70 90 20 West Palm Beach 88 75 86 73 / 70 70 90 40 Boca Raton 87 77 86 75 / 70 70 90 30 Naples 91 73 90 74 / 20 20 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.