textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Heat indices as high as 105-110 degrees expected each day through the end of the weekend.

- Smoke from wildfire activity in central Miami-Dade county will continue to disperse across the region, mainly in Southeast Florida. Lower air quality from wildfire smoke can be hazardous to sensitive populations.

- Increasing chances for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The pattern will remain generally unchanged this weekend, with an upper level disturbance lingering over the state, supporting continued unsettled weather over the period. ACARS soundings early this morning present a fairly moist and unstable atmosphere even at 2AM LT, with ~1500 J/kg SBCAPE and PWATs ~ 1.8 inches. Most guidance continues to support similar conditions persisting through the weekend, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Weak surface flow and lack of any other synoptic forcing mechanisms will mean that convection will be slow-moving in nature, developing over the interior portions of South Florida as both sea breezes will advance inland and collide in the interior, then filling in late in the evening as outflow boundaries interact with each other. Despite the slow-moving nature of these storms, guidance isn't very enthused regarding the potential for flooding with this setup; HREF ensemble guidance suggest activity could bring 1-2 inches of rainfall at most, with only a 1 in 10 chance of up to 2-4 inches in isolated spots.

Heat will remain a primary headline, as temperatures continue to rise into the low-mid 90s and heat indices reach the 105-110 degrees F range across portions of the region. Conditions will likely exceed Heat Advisory criteria across Miami-Dade, Broward and Collier counties, so we decided to issue a Heat Advisory that will be in effect from 12-6PM today. Confidence regarding Heat Advisory criteria being met for other counties remains low at this time.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A slight pattern change approaches early next week, as ridging attempts to build over the region and a plume of Saharan Dust approaches from the east. Both developments could help reduce the chances of showers and thunderstorms each day by introducing drier air and subsidence into the area. Best chances for any convection will remain over the southwest and interior where sea breezes will meet.

Heat will remain a problem, especially with the introduction of Saharan dust into the mix. Temperatures will continue to climb into the mid 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the 105-110 range likely.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue Saturday through Sunday morning, with southerly/southeasterly winds increasing along the Atlantic coast, and westerly winds on the Gulf coast. Thunderstorms are developing and ongoing across the region, and can result in brief decreases in ceiling height, visibility, as well as gusty and erratic winds at the surface. Smoke concerns will continue in southeastern Florida with the ongoing wildfires.

MARINE

Issued at 253 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Mostly benign boating conditions anticipated over the weekend. Light southeasterly winds continue across the Atlantic waters today with southerly to southwesterly winds over the Gulf. Later tonight, winds could veer from the north/northeast across all local waters before settling back from the south on Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the local waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas possible with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 93 79 93 / 30 60 20 20 West Kendall 76 94 77 94 / 30 40 10 20 Opa-Locka 78 94 79 95 / 40 70 20 20 Homestead 78 93 79 93 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 79 92 80 92 / 40 70 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 91 79 92 / 40 70 20 20 Pembroke Pines 79 95 81 96 / 40 70 20 20 West Palm Beach 77 92 79 93 / 40 30 10 30 Boca Raton 78 92 80 92 / 40 60 10 20 Naples 78 91 79 93 / 10 0 0 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069>074-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.