textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 420 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 expected today. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Fewer showers and thunderstorms today, with best chances over west-interior areas. - Drier air over the region will lead to lower rain chances overall, however scattered showers and storms may develop across interior areas each afternoon and push towards the coastal areas during the early evening hours.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 420 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Model ensembles and global solutions show fair consensus regarding a shortwave trough feature remaining over the SE CONUS today, keeping deeper moisture over the northern half of the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, it seems that finally the Saharan Dust Layer will begin taming down the overall weather pattern across SoFlo today. Latest NBM and ensemble POPs/Wx coverage drops below 20 percent for most east coast locations this afternoon, 20-40% for most west coast locations. The overall weak SE flow will allow for afternoon sea breezes to again dominate, keeping the best chances of rain over interior western SoFlo as the breezes push inland.

Latest SPC Categorical outlook keeps the risk category for SoFlo as regular thunderstorms today, although guidance suggests some CAPE (around 1K j/kg), along with lingering PWATs in the 1.5-1.8" range, which among other factors may be enough for a few strong storms to develop this afternoon. But the main hazard will be again heat- related impacts. Heat index values will possibly reach advisory criteria again today, mainly over areas where convective activity becomes further suppressed (east coast metro areas for example). Latest Heat Index forecast for today show potential max values in the 105-110F range. Another Heat Advisory will be in effect, focusing on coastal metro areas and portions of interior Collier county. People should avoid risking heat illness impacts by remaining hydrated and remaining in cool locations, especially during the afternoon peak hours.

Conditions become even drier on Wednesday as the SAL intensifies and helps in further drying the air mass across SoFlo. POPs/Wx coverage drops to single digits for most coastal areas, and 20-30 percent for western interior areas as sea breezes push inland. With less cloud cover and shower activity, temperatures are expected to hit the mid- upper 90s across much of SoFlo, and even approach 100 over interior Collier county.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 420 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Models show overall high pressure dominating the region to start the long term , with weak pressure gradients resulting in generally light to moderate winds each day. Onshore flow will return this afternoon as sea breezes develop and push inland. Meanwhile, the drier Saharan air is depicted on latest model guidance as persisting through at least the end of the work week. But some lingering moisture should remain in place for at least a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms to develop each day. Sea breezes should again become the main mechanism for lifting/deep convection, especially over interior areas. Rain chances remain around 20-30%, with best chances over interior and southwest areas.

For the upcoming weekend, the Saharan dust will begin to diminish and allow for POPs to begin to slowly increase. Sea breezes will again become the main focal points for deeper convection. In terms of temperatures, highs through the long term will hit the mid-upper 90s each day. Heat advisory potential will be explored each day. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through most of the TAF period. A few isolated thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of the terminals after 16Z. L/V flow will allow for onshore flow to develop as sea breezes move inland. This will also result in winds shifting to the west at KAPF with the Gulf breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 420 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Light to moderate easterly/southeasterly flow will continue through the upcoming weekend with low chances for showers and storms across local waters. Wave heights will range from 1-3 feet across Gulf and Atlantic waters outside of any thunderstorm that may develop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 95 80 95 80 / 10 10 10 10 West Kendall 95 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 96 79 96 79 / 10 10 10 10 Homestead 94 80 94 79 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 93 81 94 81 / 10 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 94 80 / 10 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 97 81 97 81 / 10 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 94 78 94 79 / 20 10 10 10 Boca Raton 92 79 93 79 / 10 10 10 10 Naples 94 77 95 79 / 20 20 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068>070-072-074-075-168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.