textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region today as a frontal boundary remains stalled out just to the north. - High rainfall rates combined with the possibility of multiple rounds of heavy downpours could continue to create the potential of localized flooding across the region today.

- Minor coastal flooding will be possible across the coastal areas during each high tide cycle through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend due to King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Mid level troughing will continue to pull northeastward away from the region into the Atlantic today as a strengthening mid level ridge centered to the northeast of the Bahamas begins to shift westward towards South Florida. As this ridge continues to try to build westward over the Florida Peninsula, it will act as a key feature in steering Hurricane Isaias more northward tonight into Friday towards the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary remains stalled out over Central Florida today, however, as Hurricane Isaias begins to turn northward tonight, it will also play a role in lifting the frontal boundary back up to the north further away from the region.

A light south to southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across South Florida today, however, as the front begins to move northward, winds will gradually become southeast tonight and then increase in speed on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens over the area. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place across most of the region for a good portion of the day which will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop once again across most of the region today. With the front once again acting as an extra source of lift in combination with sea breeze development, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain over the east coast metro areas as well as locations along and north of Alligator Alley this afternoon into this evening. Storm motion will continue to remain slow today and rainfall rates will remain high due to the abundance of moisture in place. With the stronger storms having the potential for higher rainfall rates, it would remain possible that a quick and localized 2 to 4 inches of rain could fall over a short period of time this afternoon into this evening. This will allow for the potential of localized flooding to continue with the highest chances occurring over the urban and poor drainage areas as well as locations already saturated from recent heavy rainfall.

As ridging continues to build into the region on Friday, while the surface level wind flow will increase out of the southeast, mid level winds will remain southerly which will continue to draw in moisture as PWAT values remain between 2.0 and 2.2 inches area wide. With the frontal boundary having less of an influence on lift and instability since it will be pushing north of the region, convective development will be more sea breeze driven. As southeasterly winds increase, this will keep the higher chances of showers and thunderstorms focused over the interior and Southwest Florida during Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

High temperatures today will generally rise into the upper 80s to around 90 across most of the region. High temperatures on Friday will rise to around 90 along the east coast, and into the lower 90s across Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Moving into the upcoming weekend, Isaias will make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night and then move into the Deep South heading into Saturday. At the same time, mid level ridging in the western Atlantic will strengthen as it gradually pushes over the Florida Peninsula and ultimately into the eastern Gulf as the weekend progresses. The pressure gradient over the region will still remain tight at the surface during the first part of the weekend due to Isaias to the northwest, and a strengthening large area of high pressure in the Atlantic. This will keep a breezy and gusty southeasterly wind flow in place at the surface and a more southerly wind flow aloft. This type of set up will continue to advect deep tropical moisture into the region from the Carribean as the latest global and ensemble guidance shows PWAT values rising and ranging between 2.2 and 2.4 inches across the area on Saturday. This will keep the wet and unsettled pattern in place during this time frame with higher chances of showers and thunderstorms across most of the region. While storm motion will be much faster than it has been over the past several days, the deep tropical moisture will continue to allow for the possibility of very efficient rainfall rates with the stronger storms. This will keep the possibility of localized flooding in place across the urban and poor drainage areas as well as locations that are already saturated from recent heavy rainfall.

During the second half of the weekend the latest global and ensemble guidance suite continues to suggest that mid level ridging will center over the Florida Peninsula on Sunday before shifting westward into the Gulf on Monday while quickly flattening over South Florida. This flattening and westward shift will be caused by the remnants of Isaias pushing across the Mid-Atlantic States and into the western Atlantic well off to the north on Monday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the region on Sunday before starting to shift into the Gulf on Monday. This will allow for the pressure gradient to decrease across the area and southeasterly winds will gradually decrease during this time frame. At the same time, deeper layer subsidence will bring some drier air back into the region which will bring a typical late wet season type pattern back into the region for Sunday and maybe even lower chances of showers and storms heading into Monday. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, the forecast uncertainty does increase a little bit as it is towards the end of the forecast period, but the latest global and ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential for a weakening front to approach and push through the area sometime towards the middle of the week. This would significantly decrease rain chances behind the front as the beginning of the dry season approaches. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Light winds will gradually increase out of the SSE after 16z across the east coast terminals and will remain between 5 to 10 kts through most of the afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again develop especially heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Periods of MVFR or IFR along with gusty and erratic winds will be possible in and around storms. At KAPF, winds increase out of the SW after 16z and will remain close to 10 kts through the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Gentle to moderate south southwesterly winds will continue across most of the local waters today. Winds will then shift and become southeasterly for tonight through the upcoming weekend. Hazardous marine conditions may develop over the Gulf waters as early as Friday while they may become hazardous over the Atlantic waters on Friday night into Saturday as southeasterly winds rapidly increase. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less today, however, they will start to gradually increase tonight into Friday as Hurricane Isaias moves northward in the central Gulf. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range between 3 to 5 feet today and then 2 to 4 feet on Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each day across the local waters through the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches through the rest of the week. The rip current risk will then increase across all Atlantic Coast beaches later on Friday and into the upcoming weekend as onshore flow rapidly increases. The rip current risk across the Gulf coast could also become elevated later on Friday and into Saturday as swells from Hurricane Isaias build across the Gulf waters. Minor coastal flooding will be possible across the coastal areas during each high tide cycle through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend due to King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 89 78 90 79 / 60 30 30 50 West Kendall 89 77 90 78 / 60 20 30 50 Opa-Locka 90 77 90 79 / 70 30 30 50 Homestead 90 78 90 79 / 40 10 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 89 79 / 70 30 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 89 77 89 79 / 70 40 30 60 Pembroke Pines 89 77 89 78 / 70 30 30 50 West Palm Beach 89 75 89 78 / 80 50 30 60 Boca Raton 89 77 89 79 / 70 40 30 70 Naples 87 75 90 77 / 70 50 50 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.