textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 117 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026 - Extremely dangerous rip currents and rough surf expected along Atlantic beaches. - Gusty winds in excess of 30 mph expected across south Florida today. - Marine conditions will be hazardous to small craft through early-week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Superpositioning of southern and northern stream waves off the east coast of the US has resulted in a more amplified and stronger longwave trough over the western Atlantic. This has also resulted in a strengthening of the surface ridge sprawling the entire Eastern Seaboard. The anomalously strong surface ridge will result in a period of elevated winds through at least Monday. Winds will be strongest today with gusts generally around 25-30 mph, though occasional gusts could be closer to 35 mph. On Monday, winds and gusts should be about 5 mph weaker across south Florida. Otherwise, the ridging pattern and dry air will result in benign conditions with no meaningful precip expected. A stray morning sprinkle or two can't be ruled out in this flow regime.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Through late week, the deep layer ridging and pool of dry air remain in place across the Southeast. With unmentionable rain chances, weakening low-level flow, and a strong mid/upper ridge, highs are expected to climb into the low 90s across the western half of south Florida by mid-week. Elsewhere, mid 80s will be more common.

The southern stream component of the aforementioned superpositioning waves is expected to strengthen a surface trough in the west-central Atlantic that gets pinched off from the mean flow and eventually drifts back westward around the base of the eastward moving ridge axis. This is the main source of forecast uncertainty late in the period. Ensembles agree on the continual weakening of the trough as it moves westward, but the timing and spatial extent of the moisture advection is less clear. Generally speaking though, by the end of the week there may be some more shower activity along the east coast in the mornings, with some scattered seabreeze convection across the interior and west coast in the afternoons.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions and easterly winds will prevail through the TAF. Winds will become gusty (around 25 kts) late this morning through the day, before subsiding once again around sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Solid advisory levels winds with occasional gusts at the top-end of advisory levels are expected today across Atlantic waters, with only a slight decrease on Monday. Seas will reach their peak by tonight and crest in the 6-8 foot range across the Gulf Stream. While winds and seas will subside a bit for the remainder of the week, cautionary conditions will continue across the Atlantic as winds and gusts likely won't drop below 15 knots through the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

While the strongest and most frequent rip currents are expected today and tomorrow, the high risk for deadly rip currents will most likely continue for much of the week. The strong onshore flow around the surface ridge will also result in elevated surf, with breakers around 4-6 ft through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 69 81 71 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 82 66 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 81 68 82 70 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 80 69 81 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 79 70 79 71 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 79 69 79 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 82 69 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 79 68 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 79 69 79 71 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 86 64 87 66 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.