textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 - Below-average temperatures return this week as northerly flow advects a cooler airmass across the area. Expect highs in the 60s and 70s, and lows down into the 50s.

- Hazardous boating conditions will prevail across all local waters today as winds and seas build behind a frontal passage.

- A high risk of rip currents will continue along Palm Beach and Collier county today. This risk could extend along the East coast on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The much-discussed cold front finally made it south across our area early this morning, with satellite imagery and surface obs placing it right over Collier and Broward counties as of 2AM. An expansive area of moderate rain is currently expanding south of the front where moisture and instability remain enhanced. Most of the guidance shows the front exiting our region shortly after sunrise, thus pushing much of this rain activity out of the area, then continuing southward until eventually becoming quasi-stationary over the western Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Nevertheless, the front's presence in the near vicinity will help maintain a generally moist and lightly unstable environment across the eastern half of the CWA, which will promote isolated shower and storm development Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. To that effect, kept PoPs between 30-40% for today, and up to 50% on Wednesday; activity should be sparse and transient in nature.

Winds will veer from the north today once the front has passed, ushering in a much cooler air mass across the region. In fact, temperatures today will struggle to rise above the low 70s. Upper- level cloud coverage will overspread the region, helping maintain those temperatures below average for this time of year. Northerly flow will gradually veer from the northeast on Wednesday as an area of surface high gradually builds over the southeastern US and the Gulf waters. This will help maintain those well average temperatures across the area, with daytime highs in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Winds will continue to shift out of the northeast on Thursday as surface high continues to build over the area. This will help promote continued below-average cool temperatures across the area. In fact, highs on Thursday and Friday will remain in the mid 70s for much of the region, while overnight lows will drop to the the upper 40s and lower 50s across the interior, and low 60s along the East Coast. The lingering influence of the decaying front will also diminish during this period of time; as a result, the atmospheric column will finally dry out and chances for showers and storms will drop near zero.

Gradual warming will take place over the weekend as the axis of the surface high shifts over the Gulf waters and winds shift out of the east-southeast, with daytime highs returning to the low to mid 80s each day. Dry conditions will prevail as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected through the afternoon, gradually improving to mainly VFR after around 21z. A few showers are possible throughout the day however not enough confidence in coverage to include in TAF. Weak northwesterly flow expected overnight, veering towards the north-northeast by mid to late morning Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A fresh northerly breeze will set up behind a frontal passage today, resulting in building seas and hazardous boating conditions. Seas across the Gulf waters will build to 7 feet by Wednesday, while seas across the Atlantic waters could range from 7-10 feet for much of the week. The aforementioned front will linger over the western Caribbean waters through mid-week, and its presence will help pool moisture across the area, which could result in a few showers and thunderstorms across the local Atlantic waters each afternoon.

BEACHES

Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

High risk of rip continues for Palm Beach and Collier county beaches today. This risk could extend along the East Coast on Wednesday as swell intensifies.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 58 72 64 76 / 40 50 40 20 West Kendall 55 74 59 78 / 40 50 40 20 Opa-Locka 58 74 62 76 / 40 40 30 20 Homestead 59 75 64 77 / 40 60 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 58 71 64 74 / 40 40 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 58 71 64 74 / 40 40 30 20 Pembroke Pines 58 74 63 77 / 40 40 30 20 West Palm Beach 57 70 63 74 / 20 30 20 10 Boca Raton 58 71 63 75 / 30 40 30 20 Naples 52 72 57 79 / 10 10 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.