textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing or expected this evening across inland areas until 9 PM. In addition to frequent lightning, heavy downpours and isolated 50 mph wind gusts are the main threats.

- A moderate to major HeatRisk is expected again on Monday, with peak Heat Index values ranging from around 103 to 108F. The heat will continue to build through at least midweek. Wear light-weight, light color clothing and stay hydrated.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Numerous showers and thunderstorms were developing this afternoon in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties within mean (0-3 km) Southerly flow around 5 kts in an air mass characterized by Precipitable Water values around 2.0 inches per the latest MIA ACARS Sounding. Showers and thunderstorms will continue developing northward into Palm Beach County this afternoon along the East Coast seabreeze and outflow boundary collisions. Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast seabreeze has moved inland across much of Southwest FL. It has stabilized across Collier and Mainland Monroe Counties, where the cumulus field is struggling mainly due to the Southeast moving cirrus canopy from the convection to the east, and CAMs favor minimal convection for the remainder of the day across this area. Additional storms are likely to develop just to the north over Hendry and Glades Counties, where more robust cumulus fields are developing near Lake Okechobee, which will be further removed from the aforementioned cirrus canopy. Compared to yesterday, it's a bit cooler aloft, while DCAPE is up to 800 J/kg per latest SPC mesoanalysis. The main concern will be some isolated thunderstorm wind gusts around 50 mph. Given the aforementioned Precipitable Water values are over the 90th percentile per SPC Sounding Climatology, combined with slow storm motions, and localized flooding will be possible mainly in urban and poor drainage areas. The storms and their associated lightning threat will diminish around sunset.

Turning our attention to the Heat Index as of 3 PM, some of the mesonet sites in metro Miami-Dade and Broward Counties were around 105F, but the areal extent is less than yesterday. Overall, values are also less than yesterday, falling short of the Heat Advisory criteria. Nonetheless, the HeatRisk is peaking in the moderate to major category.

The pattern is not too dissimilar on Monday with continued mean Southerly (0-3 km) flow, albeit a bit stronger between 5 and 10 kts, and Precipitable Water still around 2.0 inches. The CAMs support an early start to convection over Southwest FL as activity moves off the Gulf during the morning. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave may enhance convection in the East Coast metro, in particular an earlier start during the morning and continuing into the afternoon. This may not be to the extent of what we saw on Friday and Saturday, but at least the potential for more showers and embedded thunder by late morning in the East Coast metro. Given the earlier convection, activity in Southwest FL may be more limited during the afternoon, especially with any cirrus canopy. Otherwise, the seabreeze/outflow boundaries will be the primary forcing mechanisms for convection. In addition to frequent lighting and isolated thunderstorm wind gusts around 50 mph, heavy downpours may lead to localized flooding mainly in urban and poor drainage areas. This potential may be greater in the East Coast metro if multiple rounds of showers/storms occur between the morning and afternoon hours.

The heat will again be a concern on Monday. There is a Medium (50 percent) chance of advisory-level heat for metro Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties from late morning through the early evening. A moderate to major HeatRisk will be in place again on Monday over much of the region with peak Heat Index values ranging from around 103 to 108 F.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

As ridging builds across the region during midweek, precipitation chances are expected to decrease by Wednesday, reaching a minimum Thursday. Prior to that, more typical showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes interact over South Florida. With building heights aloft, heat will be the main concern as probabilistic guidance increasingly supports advisory-level heat, first in the East Coast metro areas and then across inland areas. There are also indications the region will be on the fringes of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) by Wednesday, with more robust convection possible by then.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

For the 00Z TAFs, SHRA/TSRA have moved well inland away from the Atlantic and Gulf metro terminals. With the atmosphere worked over from earlier convection and the loss of daytime heating, do not expect additional activity invof the terminals tonight, and CAMs support this. The only exception will be late tonight at APF as activity approaches from the Gulf, with VCTS beginning 14Z through 15Z, similar to Sunday. Southeast winds at the terminals, except becoming Southwest at KAPF with the passage of the seabreeze.

On Monday, activity is expected to begin earlier along East Coast metro terminals, with VCTS starting 14-15Z except 18Z at PBI. For all terminals, PROB30 groups are included for TSRA on Monday, and these groups are broader in time for East Coast metro terminals south of PBI to encompass the potential for multiple rounds of TSRA during the late morning into the evening. Brief restrictions to MVFR are possible with TSRA along with wind gusts around 25 kts. Activity should end by 02Z Tuesday at MIA and FLL.

MARINE

Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The coastal waters will remain under the influence of the western extension of the Atlantic subtropical ridge over the next several days. Tonight through at least Tuesday, light to gentle breezes will favor a Southeast direction over the Atlantic waters and a Southwest direction over the Gulf waters, although becoming more onshore within the seabreeze zone from late morning into the evening hours. On Wednesday and Thursday, the ridge axis may shift north of the waters, which would introduce moderate Southeast breezes on both the Atlantic and Gulf sides.

Over the next several days, showers and thunderstorms will favor the open Atlantic and Gulf waters from late night into the morning, then developing over inland areas by the afternoon into the evening, although some of these could move out over the waters. The only exception may be along the Gulf Coast, where showers/storms move ashore early again on Monday morning. The overall coverage of showers and storms is still expected to decrease by Tuesday and Wednesday. The main concern will be briefly higher winds and seas in the vicinity of any thunderstorms and their associated outflow boundaries.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 91 79 92 / 30 70 20 50 West Kendall 76 92 76 93 / 30 70 20 60 Opa-Locka 79 93 79 94 / 20 70 20 60 Homestead 79 92 79 93 / 40 50 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 80 92 / 20 60 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 79 91 / 20 70 30 50 Pembroke Pines 80 94 81 95 / 20 70 20 50 West Palm Beach 78 91 78 92 / 20 70 20 60 Boca Raton 79 91 79 91 / 20 60 30 50 Naples 78 91 78 92 / 50 40 20 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.