textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 220 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the interior and southwest FL this afternoon. A few could generate gusty winds, as well as lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the weekend for much of the area with the highest probability of Major HeatRisk along the Florida East Coast.

- Drier air associated with the Saharan Air Layer will move into the area later this week and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Few changes to the overall pattern through the short term period as an area of weak high pressure remains in place over the Gulf, in tandem with ridging aloft, supporting light southeasterly winds and some subsidence aloft. Ample moisture still overspreads the region as evidence by early morning ACARS soundings (in the range of 1.7- 1.9 inches), and forecast soundings continue to support additional moistening of the atmospheric column later today thanks to a delay in the approach of a plume of Saharan dust. This setup will help produce isolated to scattered convective activity later this afternoon along sea breeze boundary collisions, with coverage maximized over the interior and southwest FL. Some of that activity could drift eastward towards the East Coast late in the evening, but chances of that occurring remain low (~30% PoPs). Any storms that develop will be slow-moving in nature, and could bring gusty winds and frequent lightning. The forecast will remain fairly similar on Thursday as ridging and the surface high continue to build over the region.

The heat forecast presents a slight challenge today. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s later this afternoon, with heat indices in the low 100s. However, whether those values will reach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria remains unclear. Guidance is not very enthused regarding early afternoon convection or cloud coverage over the East Coast metro; this possibility could allow for prolonged diurnal heating and higher heat indices that meet criteria. However, neither the NBM and HREF ensemble members support heat indices greater than 105F for Miami-Dade or Broward, or greater than 108F elsewhere in the CWA. And both guidance tools have also been at odds with each other over the last couple of days. With this in mind, we will hold off from issuing a Heat Advisory with this package, but one could be issued later in the day as the forecast, and conditions, evolve. Regardless, HeatRisk is forecast to remain in the Moderate to Major category for much of the area, especially closer to the coastlines. Members of the public are encouraged to exercise caution while outdoors, taking frequent breaks, staying hydrated and wearing light clothing.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Ridging will remain in place through the extended period while Saharan dust lingers over the area. Modeled PWATs drop into the 1.5- 1.7 inch range through the weekend and into next week, generally below average for this time of year. The combination of subsidence aloft and drier air will help suppress widespread convective coverage compared to the summertime normal, but isolated to scattered showers and storms may still be possible across interior and southwest FL where the prevailing flow meets the Gulf breeze.

Above-normal temperatures will persist through the period, with highs in the low-mid 90s and heat indices in the low 100s. Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts could be possible each afternoon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this morning, with light and variable winds at all terminals. Winds become southerly this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze at KAPF. Some chance for SHRA/TSRA over the interior. Light and variable winds again overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

High pressure prevails through this week over the local waters. Light south-southeast winds continue across the Atlantic, while south-southwest winds develop in the afternoons across the Gulf waters with the development of the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will predominantly remain over land areas. However, slow moving storms may drift offshore in the evenings and could produce locally hazardous winds and seas. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 79 92 80 / 40 30 20 10 West Kendall 93 76 93 78 / 40 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 93 79 93 80 / 40 30 20 10 Homestead 92 79 92 80 / 30 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 80 91 81 / 30 30 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 79 91 81 / 40 30 30 10 Pembroke Pines 95 80 95 81 / 40 30 20 10 West Palm Beach 92 78 92 80 / 40 30 30 10 Boca Raton 91 79 91 81 / 40 30 30 10 Naples 91 78 92 78 / 20 10 30 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.