textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 229 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across SW Florida each afternoon through the rest of the weekend. - Heat indices will rise into the upper 90s and lower 100s across most areas each afternoon through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.

- Atlantic beaches will remain under a high risk of rip currents through early next week.

- The arrival of deep tropical moisture across the region during the middle portion of the upcoming work week could result in periods of heavy rainfall across the region.

UPDATE

Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

The current forecast philosophy remains on track and no major changes were made to the previous forecast. Mid level ridging continues to build over South Florida and surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic keeps a east to southeasterly wind flow in place. This will allow for the east coast sea breeze to push further inland which will keep the focus of afternoon convection over the interior and west coast through the rest of the weekend. While the chances of strong thunderstorm development will remain rather limited, there will be just enough instability in place during peak diurnal heating to support the potential for gusty winds with the strongest thunderstorms. Convection will gradually wane as the evening progresses leaving mainly dry conditions across most areas overnight. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 409 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Models and sfc analyses depict a sfc ridge over the midwest Atl extending into the northern half of the Florida peninsula and the E Gulf, keeping a prevailing ESE wind regime in place through the weeekend. Aloft, ridging also builds back into the area, which will further limit convection across SoFlo each day.

With the robust easterly flow dominating the afternoon hours, the weaker Gulf breeze is expected to remain pinned down against the east coast, where the highest POPs/Wx coverage (60-80%) will reside in the forecast. Most of the convection should focus over interior and western areas of SoFlo each afternoon, with the east coast metro areas experiencing little or no rain (10-25%). The available moisture will likely work along the east sea breeze boundary as it pushes inland, producing scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms. Latest 00Z MFL sounding data and model soundings still show some drier air lingering aloft, which should help in limiting potential for strong/svr cells. However, any storms that do form may bring brief periods of lightning strikes, gusty winds and heavy downpours.

Afternoon temperatures will hit the upper 80s near the coasts, and into the low-mid 90s across interior and western areas of SoFlo each day. Heat indices may reach the mid 90s over east coast areas, and up into the triple digits across southwest FL.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 409 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Overall synoptic pattern will continue early next week with an upper lvl ridge dominating the region, and sfc high pressure remaining over the west Atl and the Florida peninsula. Generally easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail, with a pattern of isolated to scattered showers and storms over the east coast during the overnight and morning hours, then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over interior and west coast areas as the sea breeze pushes inland.

Model sounding data keeps PWATs around 1.6 inches, with additional surges possible during the second half of the work week as the Atl ridge migrates further SE. This will result in flow veering to a more S/SSE flow, which will tap into the enhanced pool of moisture south of the peninsula. With the additional moisture advection, models bring increasing POPs/Wx (70-75% coverage) across the area for the Thu-Sat timeframe. Confidence in this more active scenario is increasing with each model run, and the latest NBM values will remain in the forecast attm.

Expect afternoon highs to continue to rise into the upper 80s over east coast locations, and into the low 90s across much of interior and western areas of SoFlo each day. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period across the east coast terminals. ESE winds will range between 10 to 15 kts this afternoon into this evening with gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible during this time frame. At KAPF, winds will become more SSE this afternoon as a Gulf breeze tries to push inland. Scattered showers and storms will also bring periods of MVFR or IFR conditions to KAPF this afternoon into early this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Mainly moderate east to southeasterly breeze will persist across most of the local waters through the rest of the week. Some periods of afternoon gusty winds are possible over the Atlantic waters during the next couple of days. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become west southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day through the rest of the week across the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Strong onshore flow and will continue to keep a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through at least early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 88 78 89 / 20 10 20 20 West Kendall 76 90 75 90 / 10 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 77 90 77 90 / 20 20 20 20 Homestead 77 89 77 90 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 87 79 88 / 20 20 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 86 78 87 / 20 20 20 20 Pembroke Pines 79 91 79 91 / 20 20 20 20 West Palm Beach 79 87 79 88 / 20 20 20 20 Boca Raton 80 87 80 87 / 20 30 20 20 Naples 76 91 77 92 / 30 50 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.