textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 103 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Elevated risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through at least mid-week.

- Patchy fog possible across inland and SW Florida early this morning.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through most of the upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1207 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Not a lot of changes required for the afternoon discussion as mainly benign weather conditions is expected to prevail through the short term. Surface high pressure remains over the Florida peninsula while slowly migrating eastward. Aloft, an U/L ridge is also moving across the area, being pushed eastward by the trough/front system approaching the SE CONUS.

Model and MFL sounding data depicts a relatively dry air mass over SoFlo with PWATs falling to around 1 inch or less today and tomorrow. This synoptic scenario will also keep an easterly surface flow in place, with afternoon Gulf breezes not expected to produce much shower activity. PoPs/Wx coverage will remain below 10% through mid week, with maybe better chances over the Gulf coast.

Winds should become generally light during the nighttime hours and allow for patchy fog to develop, mainly over inland and southwest areas. This may result in periods of reduced visibilities on the roadways.

High temperatures the next couple days are expected in the mid to upper 80s for most locations, though some spots in the interior might reach 90.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

As we approach the late week period and the first half of the upcoming weekend, a fairly potent shortwave trough will advect eastward from the Texas/Louisiana area underneath a larger scale trough over the northern US. Given the strong ridge pattern over the Florida Peninsula, this shortwave will weaken in its approach to South Florida as well as its attendant cold front. Because of the front and shortwave weakening in their approach, any rainfall we get is not likely to be of the widespread heavy rain and thunderstorm variety. Instead we are likely to see a more messy coverage of showers and thunderstorms with lower amounts of rainfall. QPF is still under an inch for a span of a few days Thursday through Saturday. The bulk of this looks to occur on Friday as this will be when the strongest energy and vorticity advection occurs from the shortwave trough before it departs this weekend. While there certainly can be some heavier pockets of rain, the general consensus in long term guidance is that QPF will be rather meager across the region.

For the very end of the forecast period, guidance is suggesting the potential for another shortwave to form over the Gulf and cross into South Florida on Sunday into Monday with more increased rain chances. However, uncertainty is high with this given it is at the tail end of the forecast period.

High temperatures will fall slightly for Friday as the cold front washes out, but most areas will still be in the low to mid 80s or even upper 80s for some interior locations. Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night for most areas, although east coast locations will continue to be around 70 each night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR should continue during the next 24 hours for all terminals. ESE winds will persist during the TAF period, remaining moderate through this evening and becoming light overnight. A Gulf breeze may linger over APF through 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 83 72 85 / 0 0 0 20 West Kendall 67 86 67 88 / 0 0 0 20 Opa-Locka 70 85 71 87 / 0 0 0 20 Homestead 72 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 71 81 72 84 / 0 0 0 20 N Ft Lauderdale 71 82 72 85 / 0 0 0 20 Pembroke Pines 71 85 71 87 / 0 0 0 20 West Palm Beach 70 83 70 86 / 0 0 0 30 Boca Raton 71 83 71 85 / 0 0 0 20 Naples 67 87 68 85 / 0 0 0 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.