textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 633 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 - Warm and mostly dry conditions will persist across the region through Saturday.

- A moderate risk of rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches through tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Model guidance and latest sfc analyses show a ridge/deep high pressure still dominating the region during the next couple of days. The large storm systems affecting the C CONUS is now pushing the ridge further into the region and should eventually force it away from SoFlo. But in the meantime, the FL peninsula should remain under the influence of the high pressure, with the ridge axis slowly drifting closer to SoFlo. Therefore, expect the generally warm and relatively dry weather regime to continue through Saturday.

Latest 00Z MFL sounding data and radar imagery are showing some moisture intrusion, which NBM and ensembles did not describe in earlier runs. Although very modest, the increase in moisture is being enough to support some areas of passing showers, which has been mainly affecting Palm Beach county during the morning and early afternoon hours. POP/Wx grids have been updated to better reflect this trend, carrying slight chances/chances of rain for much of the eastern half of SoFlo through the rest of the afternoon hours. Similar adjustments may be needed again for Saturday if this trend continues.

As the aforementioned ridge moves closer to the area, pressure gradients will continue to further relax, resulting in shorter or no periods of breezy easterly winds at all. But occasional gusts are still possible mainly along the Atlantic coastline during the rest of this afternoon.

Max temps should remain in the low-mid 80s for much of SoFlo, with possible upper 80s or even low 90s over the west coast. Nighttime lows should remain in the low-mid 60s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s near the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Conditions will remain generally unchanged through the weekend, but a gradual pattern change will begin to take hold across the continental US, which could result in unsettled weather for South Florida early next week.

Aloft, an upper-level trough will begin to dig across the Plains and the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, eroding the ridge over the Gulf and weakening the surface high. This gradual process will allow for moisture to continue filtering back into the region, with modeled PWATs surging back to near normal values for this time of the year (1.1-1.3 inches). This could allow for some isolated rainshowers to develop Sunday afternoon, especially along the sea breeze boundaries.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate early next week as an attendant surface low associated with the upper-level trough develops and moves across the Great Lakes region. As it does, it will drag a cold front south towards the Florida peninsula. Most model guidance shows this front dropping along the peninsula early in the week (between Monday-Tuesday) and clearing the area by midweek. Ahead of the front, chances for rainfall increased across the region, especially Monday evening and Tuesday. Cluster analysis of the ensemble guidance suggests that the model mean solution is a reasonable forecast option, and it shows scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving across the area, with up to an inch of rain possible.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards the middle and back half of the week. Some of the GEFS ensemble members show an upper level shortwave developing on the back of the aforementioned trough on Wednesday; this solution is also depicted in the deterministic GFS. This shortwave would push a surface low across the Gulf towards South Florida, resulting in increasing chances for rain and higher rainfall accumulation Wed-Thur. However, it's worth noting that the GEFS is the only model system that presents this solution at this time; neither the EPS (the ensemble ECMWF, which dominates the model mean), and the GEPS (the ensemble Canadian) show this shortwave trough and surface low developing and as such support a much drier solution Wed-Thur. Furthermore, those GEFS members presenting this solution account for a minority of the total ensemble envelope, with the majority of the european and canadian members in clear consensus for a drier solution. We'll have to continue monitoring this forecast, but for now we kept PoPs in the 15-20% range.

Above average temperatures will still be likely Sunday and Monday ahead of the frontal passage, but might be tempered a bit by cloudiness associated with the front. Highs both days will cap out in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the East Coast. Conditions could cool back down to more seasonable temperatures once the front moves across the area, with highs next week in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows each night could dip into the 50s across the interior, and down to the 60s along the coasts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Light and variable winds overnight into early Saturday morning. Easterly winds around 10 kts beginning late morning, with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze developing at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A moderate breeze will prevail across the local Atlantic waters as high pressure remains in place over the region. Lighter winds will set up over the Gulf waters. Seas will drop to 2-4 ft in the Atlantic and remain 2 feet or less in the Gulf. Another period of breezy, hazardous conditions could approach early next week with the passage of a cold front.

BEACHES

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Weakening onshore flow will promote a moderate risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 69 87 69 89 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 72 87 72 88 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 72 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 73 83 72 84 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 83 72 85 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 73 88 74 89 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 71 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 73 83 72 85 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 69 87 70 86 / 0 0 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.