textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 659 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 - Smoke from a wildfire in western Miami-Dade County could lead to reductions in visibility early this morning well west of the metro area.

- Mostly dry conditions will remain in place throughout the remainder of the week and the first part of the weekend with above normal temperatures.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase area wide during the second half of the weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A rather strong and elongated mid level ridge centered over South Texas and Mexico will continue to expand eastward across the Gulf and over the Florida Peninsula today and Thursday. Further to the north, a deepening mid level low/trough complex will dive down across the Great Lakes region today and tonight before encompassing the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states heading into Thursday. While this mid level low/trough complex will stay well off to the north, it will flatten the mid level ridge overhead, creating more of a zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure will center just offshore over the western Atlantic today bringing dry conditions to the region before getting pushed further to the southeast on Thursday out ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. The aforementioned frontal boundary will push southeastward towards the Deep South today before stalling out over Northern and Central Florida tonight into Thursday. With high pressure essentially blocking the southeastward momentum of the boundary, the front will not get close enough to have any influence in regards to convective development, and most of the region will remain dry heading into Thursday. The only noticeable difference in our sensible weather on Thursday will be a wind shift to the south southwest out ahead of the frontal boundary which will bring very warm temperatures to South Florida. High temperatures today and Thursday will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most of the region.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The center of the mid level ridge over the Gulf will gradually slide to the south of the region over the northern Carribean Sea heading towards the end of the week and it will eventually end up in the western Atlantic as Saturday progresses. As the center of this ridge passes off to the South, mid level heights will gradually rise over the region on Friday into Saturday. Further upstream, a rather potent mid level shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains on Friday before rapidly progressing eastward towards the Southeast on Saturday. At the surface, what is left of the stalled frontal boundary over Northern and Central Florida gets lifted to the north in response to a developing broad surface low over the Northern Gulf on Friday into Friday night. The frontal boundary associated with this low will push into Northern and Central Florida on Saturday.

As far as the sensible weather across South Florida, the influence of the mid level ridge passing off to the south combined with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will keep dry conditions in place on Friday and Saturday. South to southwesterly wind flow will remain in place keeping the very warm air mass over the region on Friday. As the pressure gradient begins to tighten over the region out ahead of the approaching frontal boundary, south to southwesterly winds will increase as Saturday progresses. This will cause high temperatures to skyrocket on Saturday and they will have the potential to rise into the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas and into the mid 90s across the interior sections. Heat indices will be even higher, and have the potential to reach the triple digits across portions of the region on Saturday.

Heading into Sunday as well as the early portion of next week, the weather pattern across South Florida will begin to change as the next frontal boundary will approach on Sunday before potentially stalling out somewhere over the region early next week. The latest global and ensemble guidance suite has come into better agreement with the timing of the front allowing for higher chances of showers and thunderstorms to push into the region for Sunday, and then those elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain in place through Monday. What still remains uncertain is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorm development on Sunday and Monday as well as the potential for heavy rainfall. The latest guidance suite does not have a good handle on how close the mid level shortwave gets to the region. The ECMWF guidance suite has it passing off further to the north while the GFS suite brings the shortwave a bit closer to the region. The positioning of this shortwave will have significant impacts in regards to the amount of mid level support that will be available which will ultimately impact the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorm development over the region on Sunday into Monday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Sunday will remain above normal out ahead of the front, however, they could return to normal or slightly below normal early next week depending on the positioning of the frontal boundary.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds early this morning will increase out of the SE after 15z and will range between 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon hours. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WSW after 16z as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A gentle to moderate southeasterly breeze will develop across most of the local waters today. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds will become west southwesterly this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Heading towards the second half of the week, winds will shift and become south to southwesterly across all local waters during this time frame. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 2 to 4 feet through the rest of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame.

BEACHES

Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Due to a lingering northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents will persist across the Palm Beaches through the rest of the week. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 86 72 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 88 68 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 88 72 90 71 / 0 10 0 0 Homestead 86 70 88 70 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 72 87 70 / 0 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 85 72 88 71 / 0 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 89 73 92 72 / 0 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 86 70 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 85 72 88 71 / 0 10 0 0 Naples 86 71 85 70 / 0 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.