textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 725 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions continue today for both the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

- High risk of rip currents continues for the Atlantic beaches, and will likely last at least into early next week. In addition, high surf conditions continue for the Palm Beaches.

- Minor coastal flooding expected to begin today around high tide along the east coast. Moderate to potentially major coastal flooding is possible this weekend.

- Heavy rain, isolated flash flooding, and windy conditions are forecast for this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Surface high pressure will remain to our north today and Thursday. At the upper levels, height falls will continue as a trough builds across the state and the ridge over the middle of the country starts to nose eastward. Mainly dry conditions are expected the next couple of days, with plenty of dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Just enough low level moisture will be in place for occasional coastal showers across the east coast metro, especially during the evening and overnight hours.

High temps today and Thursday will be in the low to middle 80s for most, with some upper 80s over SW FL. Low temps tonight will range from the middle 60s around the lake to the lower 70s near the Atlantic coast.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Forecast gets interesting as we head into the weekend and into early next week. A 500 mb low will form in the vicinity of Cuba and strong surface high pressure will be in place over the northeast US. Deep moisture will be in place over SE FL for multiple days with PWAT values increasing to 1.8-2.0 inches. Rounds of heavy rainfall appear likely especially on Saturday and Sunday, but may continue into Monday as well. Mean rainfall totals from Friday through Monday show 3-6 inches for the east coast metro, with worst case scenario values over 10 inches possible. Given the peak of the current king tide cycle is also this weekend, the potential exists for some serious flooding concerns across the metro and other poor drainage locations along the coast. Should the forecast remain the same over the coming days, Flood headlines would be very likely.

In addition to the heavy rain threat, the tightening of the pressure gradient this weekend across FL will result in breezy NE winds, with gusts of 30-40 mph likely, especially along the coast.

Conditions will improve for Tuesday into mid week as the upper low opens up and lifts up to the northeast and drier air moves back into the area.

Temperatures during the extended period will see high temps in the low to mid 80s each day and lows in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 725 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. NW winds early this morning will gradually become NE after 15z and will range between 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Hazardous seas will continue in the Atlantic waters the rest of the week with seas of 6-9 ft. NE winds 15-20 kts. In the Gulf waters, hazardous winds early in the day will become cautionary by this evening.

Hazardous winds and seas return for all local waters this weekend into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Gale force winds are possible in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters this weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A high risk of rip currents will remain for the Atlantic beaches through early next week. In addition, dangerous waves of 6-10 ft in the surf zone are likely in the Palm Beaches through early next week.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

We're beginning to come out of an ebb in the astronomical tides as we head towards the full moon and peak of the tide forecasts late this weekend and into early next week. Observed water-levels are already over-performing predictions and we'll likely begin reaching Minor flooding thresholds this morning at all of our east coast tidal stations. It's likely we'll also reach Moderate flooding levels by as early as Friday but certainly over the weekend; even before the peak of the King Tide cycle. It's not out of the question that Palm Beach county may even reach Major flooding levels at the peak of the King Tide. The normal King Tides are complicated by the fact that we'll be dealing with a complex upper/surface low pressure pattern that will feature an approaching front from the north and convection rising out of the Caribbean from the south. This will likely increase the onshore wind component and magnify the already high tides. This is somewhat accounted for in the predictions mentioned above, but only crudely. Furthermore, the potential for heavy rainfall during periods of high tide is also something to be aware of that could further aggravate coastal flooding. In short, we're heading into what could be a rather impactful period for coastal flooding and sensitive locations should consider preparations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 85 71 84 70 / 10 20 20 10 West Kendall 86 70 85 69 / 10 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 85 70 84 69 / 10 20 20 10 Homestead 85 70 85 70 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 84 71 83 71 / 10 20 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 85 71 83 70 / 10 20 30 10 Pembroke Pines 85 70 84 68 / 10 20 30 10 West Palm Beach 85 71 83 70 / 20 30 20 10 Boca Raton 84 71 83 70 / 20 30 30 10 Naples 85 67 84 63 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ656-657- 676.