textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the early evening hours. The stronger thunderstorms could contain gusty winds and frequent lightning. - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow moving storms creates the potential for localized flooding especially over the urban and poor drainage areas. - High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon through most of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

No changes needed to be made to the current forecast philosophy as everything remains on track. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to develop as the sea breezes slowly push inland and interact with each other. As weak mid level troughing drifts to the north northwest, mid level heights are slowly trying to rise a bit and 500mb temperatures have warmed over the area to around -5 and -5.5C. While this will help to keep strong thunderstorm development rather limited, it cannot be entirely ruled out as SB CAPE values generally range between 4000 and 4500 J/kg. While gusty winds remain possible with the strongest storms, downpours with high rainfall rates will be a higher concern through the evening hours as PWAT values generally range between 2.1 and 2.4 inches across the region. This in combination with slow storm motion will keep the potential for localized flooding to take place especially across the urban and low lying areas. While most thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish later this evening, additional convective development cannot be ruled out overnight over the Atlantic and Gulf waters as well as the east coast. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to around 80 across the east coast metro areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Not a lot of changes to forecast philosophy for the short term with U/L high pressure over the SE CONUS gradually migrating eastward during the next couple of days, while the W Atl sfc ridge axis remains lingering just north of the Florida peninsula. This synoptic scenario will keep a generally E/SE wind regime in place through the work week, and continuing moisture advection across SoFlo.

Models show the moist tropical air mass bringing high chances of rain each day, with sounding and model PWATs above 2 inches, and CAPE/MUCAPE values in the 2-3K J/Kg range. Additionally, a TUTT feature will continue track northward across the peninsula, which will further enhance overall instability and chances for thunderstorms. Max POPs remain in the 70-80% range each day, especially during the afternoon/early evening hours. Some storms may become strong, with a few isolated severe cells possible. Main hazards will be frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain.

Localized flooding remains a key concern, especially over urban areas prone to flooding. Latest Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Excessive Rainfall Outlook keeps the Florida peninsula under a Marginal Risk (at least 5% chance) today.

High temperatures are expected to again hit the low-mid 90s, along with peak heat index values in the 105-110F range.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1048 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A TUTT feature will move further eastward and away form the state by mid week, while a sfc frontal boundary moves across the SE CONUS. Models also agree in keeping the W Atl ridge axis lingering around the SE Atl Seaboard, just north of the state through the long term. This will keep the prevailing E/SE flow in place across SoFlo, with deep-layered moisture advection persisting during the long term.

Model PWATs keep values above seasonal normals, mainly around or above 2" through the rest of the week, which will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon. Best chances for strong convection will again happen with the onset of the East coast sea breeze, first along the Atlantic metro areas early in the afternoon, then pushing inland during the late afternoon hours. Hazards will include gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably hot each day, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows should remain in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Scattered showers and storms will gradually diminish as the evening progresses giving way to mainly dry conditions overnight along with light winds. Winds then increase out of the ESE after 15z and remain around 10 kts through Tuesday afternoon. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WSW to around 10 kts after 17z Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible near all terminals during Tuesday afternoon. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible in and around any storm that approaches the terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light to moderate east-southeasterly winds are expected to prevail across most of the local marine zones through the forecast period. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become more southwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each day. Gusty and erratic winds, along with brief periods of rough seas, will be possible in and around thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 91 80 92 / 40 80 40 70 West Kendall 77 91 79 91 / 30 70 30 70 Opa-Locka 79 92 80 92 / 40 80 40 70 Homestead 78 92 79 92 / 30 60 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 81 91 / 50 70 40 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 80 91 / 40 70 40 70 Pembroke Pines 79 91 80 92 / 40 80 40 70 West Palm Beach 79 91 79 92 / 40 70 40 70 Boca Raton 79 89 80 90 / 50 70 40 70 Naples 76 90 76 91 / 40 70 50 80

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.