textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 - Dangerous Rip Currents and hazardous marine conditions will develop once again late Tuesday through the middle of the week for the Atlantic coast and the Atlantic waters. - Localized flooding will be possible along the east coast Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

- Gusty conditions will develop across the east coast later on Tuesday into Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

No changes were made to the previous forecast as the current forecast philosophy remains on track. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon mainly across the interior and Southwest Florida. The majority of this convective development is being driven by the sea breezes as the frontal boundary still remains well off to the north draped across Central Florida. Instability over the region appears to be maximizing over the interior and Southwest Florida where CAPE values have risen up to around 3000 J/kg. This, combined with 500mb temperatures of -10 to -11C and DCAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg over Southwest Florida, will allow for a couple of stronger thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy downpours and maybe some small hail. The highest chances of strong thunderstorm development will be where sea breezes and other thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide over interior portions of Southwest Florida.

While shower and thunderstorms will gradually diminish this evening, the latest hi-res CAMs show the possibility of a resurgence of convection during the overnight hours into early Tuesday morning as the frontal boundary pushes closer to the region. Additional heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible with this activity. Low temperatures tonight will generally drop into the lower to mid 60s across interior portions of Southwest Florida, and into the upper 60s to around 70 across the east coast metro areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Upper level water vapor imagery shows that the cold front associated with the northern stream trough over the Great Lakes is currently pushing across the Deep South and into northwest Florida. The front will continue to creep southward into central Florida on Monday, beginning to shift winds north and introduce increased cloud cover and shower activity across the state. However, hi-res guidance is starting to zero in on the front stalling somewhere near Lake Okeechobee on Tuesday. Therefore, the weather pattern for Monday in South Florida will still be dominated by moist easterly flow at the surface and weakening ridge to the east. The peninsula will continue to be entrenched by a deep slug of moisture, with PWATs once again in the 1.4 to 1.5 inch range for the afternoon. So similar to the last few days, easterly flow will push some scattered shower activity across the Atlantic coast during the morning and early afternoon, before most convective activity once again begins to focus along the Gulf Breeze in southwest and interior portions of South Florida. But unlike the last few days, easterly flow will be a little bit weaker, so hi-res guidance such as the HRRR and RRFS are hinting at the Gulf breeze pushing a little bit further inland. As a result, there is increased confidence that stronger thunderstorms may initiate over the Everglades, including interior parts of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties. HREF ensemble guidance still shows that most rainfall activity will focus along the western counties of Monroe, Collier, Hendry and Glades, where 1 to 2 inches of rain and frequent lightning will be likely with each storm.

By the time Tuesday rolls around, a secondary southern stream shortwave perturbation traverses across northern Florida, bringing along another lobe of vorticity that looks to invigorate shower activity across the region. WPC has highlighted a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the Atlantic coast of Florida for Tuesday through Wednesday, with localized urban flooding being the main concern. Increasing pressure gradients along the eastern seaboard will allow for wind speeds begin to pick up from the northeast behind the decaying frontal boundary. Much of the shower activity will set up along the stalled frontal boundary in central Florida, but the main forcing for showers and storms looks to be from coastal convergence from easterly flow over the Gulf Stream. As the mid- level shortwave pushes east on Tuesday night, diffluent flow aloft could provide further ascent for shower activity. Guidance is also indicating that an inverted trough just off the coast could aid in sustaining storms with further convergence.

There is still some spread among ensemble clusters on where the heaviest rainfall for the Tuesday through Wednesday period may fall, so exact amounts are still uncertain. In fact, guidance seems to have shifted the heavy rainfall threat a little bit further south, showing that coastal Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach could get 1.5 to 2.5 inches. As for the worst case scenario (90th percentile), it is still holding steady at around 3 to 4 inches. But one cluster of ensembles (20% of members) has heavier rain focusing along the stalled boundary in central Florida where up to 5 inches may be possible. Given this guidance, there is increased confidence that the flood threat should be localized to urban centers near the Atlantic coast and impacts should be isolated to scattered since maximum rainfall amounts are not all too concerning.

Due to increased cloud cover and shower activity on Tuesday, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler across the region, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A troughing pattern will remain over the Florida peninsula through the middle of the week, pushing the decaying frontal boundary a little bit further south into South Florida. Guidance continues to show a post-frontal 1038-1040 mb surface high building over the mid- Atlantic states, which will help strengthen a pressure gradient along the eastern seaboard and usher in some stronger northeast winds across the region. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, wind speeds over the Atlantic waters will be increasing up to around 30 kts, while wind speeds over land look to be around 15 kts. There still remains a low chance for gale force winds across the Atlantic, but it depends on if the surface trough over the Gulf stream sets up a little bit further south, allowing the stronger northerly winds to push deeper into South Florida. For now, NBM probs are only showing about a 40 % chance of wind speeds exceeding 30 kts for the northern waters near Palm Beach. Inland, gusts up to 25 kts would be possible, creating nuisance crosswinds and blowing about loose objects.

Ensemble QPF clusters show a slightly greater signal for heavy rainfall for South Florida for Wednesday compared to Tuesday. PWATS for Wednesday could climb up to 1.8 inches, which would be within the 90th percentile for this time of year according to local sounding climatology. Precipitation for Wednesday looks to be even more focused along coastal convergence, which is why another 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall is possible along coastal Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. One interesting trend among recent ensemble guidance is showing increased QPF along southern Dade County. Higher end scenarios depict some locally heavier amounts of 4 to 5 inches over parts of the southern metro. Localized urban flooding will once again be a concern, especially given the antecedent rainfall from the previous day which could put a stress on roadway drainage systems.

Ensemble guidance begins to show a downtrend in precipitation for Thursday, but persistent onshore easterly flow and above average PWATS for this time of year will still allow for scattered showers to develop across the Gulf stream and spread inland over the Peninsula. Rain amounts for Thursday look to be more in the 0.5 to 1 inch range for most Atlantic coast locations. Towards the end of the week, a mid-level ridge will begin to build over the Gulf and up towards the eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure will begin to strengthen in north Florida, and drier air will begin to enter the region. This looks to decrease rain chances and increase temperatures back into the mid 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the east coast terminals through the evening hours. Easterly winds around 10 kts will continue through the evening hours before becoming light and variable overnight. At KAPF, WNW winds around 10 kts will remain in place through the evening hours. Scattered showers and storms will be possible near KAPF this afternoon into this evening. Chances of showers and storms increase area wide beginning early Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A weakening pressure gradient will give way to a lighter easterly breeze on Monday. Tuesday will be a transition day back to a fresh/strong breeze as a strong area of high pressure builds down the Eastern Seaboard and the Florida Peninsula. Expect periods of moderate to heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds (both coasts) and seas (east coast) will remain elevated through the entire week as strong high pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Tuesday night through Wednesday for the Atlantic waters where wave heights may be as high as 11 feet and winds around 30 kts. There is a low chance fore gale force winds for the waters offshore of Palm Beach, but guidance is currently showing only a 40% chance of winds exceeding 30kts.

Conditions looks a little less over the Gulf waters, with winds around 25 kts and lesser waves, but another Advisory will likely be needed there too.

BEACHES

Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Weaker easterly winds today will decrease the Rip Current threat through Tuesday morning to below moderate. The threat will drastically increase by mid week as onshore flow further increases in response to high pressure spreading down the Peninsula. In addition to rips, surf heights will build on Tuesday across the Palm beaches and peak along the entire east coast on Wednesday, with peak breakers between 7-10 ft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 71 81 69 79 / 60 70 50 80 West Kendall 67 83 65 82 / 50 70 40 70 Opa-Locka 69 82 68 81 / 60 80 50 80 Homestead 70 83 68 81 / 50 60 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 71 79 69 78 / 60 80 50 80 N Ft Lauderdale 70 78 69 78 / 60 80 60 80 Pembroke Pines 71 83 69 82 / 60 80 50 80 West Palm Beach 69 77 67 76 / 60 80 70 90 Boca Raton 70 78 68 78 / 60 80 60 90 Naples 68 81 67 82 / 60 60 40 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday evening through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.