textproduct: Miami - South Florida

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

07z Mesoanalysis highlights the continuation of an anhydrous airmass in place across South Florida with observed dewpoint values this morning below the 10% percentile when compared to historical norms. The continued advection of the axis of stout surface ridging across the northern Gulf coast and Gulf has resulted in a gradual lessening of surface winds over the last several hours and the development of a nocturnal surface inversion across inland areas. The combination of very low dewpoints, clear skies, and light peninsular drainage wind flow has set the stage for an efficient bout of radiational cooling across inland locales that will continue through daybreak this morning. The latest NBM has consequently trended slightly colder across inland areas of South Florida over the next several hours with the NBM 25th percentile even depicting the potential of isolated minimum temperature values in the upper 20s across Glades County in the usual sheltered spots that over perform the low temperature forecast. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier counties from 3am to 9am this morning while a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the majority of South Florida (with the exception of Mainland Monroe, metro and coastal Broward & Miami-Dade counties) also from 3am to 9am this morning as minimum apparent (feels-like) temperatures at daybreak will range from the mid 20s west of Lake Okeechobee to the mid to upper 30s across coastal Broward and Miami-Dade counties.

Outside of cold weather impacts, our other major forecast concern to discuss this morning continues to be the rapid development of the National Wildfire (and surrounding hot spots) over the past 24 hours. While colder temperatures and lighter winds overnight have slowed the spread of the wildfire over the past few hours, the development of the nocturnal inversion and lessening of the mixing height has resulted in dense smoke remaining close to the ground. This may result in reduced visibilities at downstream locations south of the fire which could result in dangerous driving conditions through 9am this morning. Although surface wind speeds are forecast to continue to lessen throughout the course of today, enhanced fire behavior will still be possible across South Florida this afternoon as vegetation remains extremely dry and relative humidity values will remain well below the 10% percentile (perhaps even near the daily minimum) for today's date!

Returning to the synoptic scale, a departing positively tilted mid- level trough will lift northeastwards further into the western Atlantic today as mid-level flow remains out of a northwesterly direction. The combination of mid-level dry air aloft and anticyclonic flow the surface ridge of high pressure in the Gulf will result in another day of below average temperature across the region as high temperatures remain in the 60s to near 70s across all of South Florida today. With high pressure in firm control, peninsular drainage flow will keep winds out of a northerly direction for most of today before winds veer onshore along both coasts during the middle to late afternoon hours.

The loss of insolation and clear skies will set the stage for another chilly night across South Florida tonight into early Wednesday as peninsular drainage flow develops once again. Forecast low temperatures will be slightly warmer than this morning along temperatures in the low to mid 30s remain in the forecast across inland Southwestern Florida. Temperatures will remain warmer along the coast with values in the low to mid 40s across the Naples metro and temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s along the east coast. With light winds, clear skies, and a rebound in surface moisture, frost could be a concern across these areas through daybreak on Wednesday. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Glades and Hendry counties from 2am to 8am on Wednesday morning.

The axis of the aforementioned stout surface ridging will transit across the region on Wednesday as mid-level flow veers to a westerly to southwesterly direction. This subtle but important shift in the placement of the axis of surface ridging will have begin the onset of a more gradual warmup across the region. After a chilly morning with peninsular drainage flow, winds will veer out of a southeasterly direction along the east coast and southwesterly direction along the Gulf coast during the afternoon hours. This will result in high temperatures increasing back into the 70s across the region during the afternoon hours with a few inland locales potentially reaching 80 as a gradual uptick in atmospheric moisture returns to the region.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

07z Mesoanalysis highlights the continuation of an anhydrous airmass in place across South Florida with observed dewpoint values this morning below the 10% percentile when compared to historical norms. The continued advection of the axis of stout surface ridging across the northern Gulf coast and Gulf has resulted in a gradual lessening of surface winds over the last several hours and the development of a nocturnal surface inversion across inland areas. The combination of very low dewpoints, clear skies, and light peninsular drainage wind flow has set the stage for an efficient bout of radiational cooling across inland locales that will continue through daybreak this morning. The latest NBM has consequently trended slightly colder across inland areas of South Florida over the next several hours with the NBM 25th percentile even depicting the potential of isolated minimum temperature values in the upper 20s across Glades County in the usual sheltered spots that over perform the low temperature forecast. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier counties from 3am to 9am this morning while a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the majority of South Florida (with the exception of Mainland Monroe, metro and coastal Broward & Miami-Dade counties) also from 3am to 9am this morning as minimum apparent (feels-like) temperatures at daybreak will range from the mid 20s west of Lake Okeechobee to the mid to upper 30s across coastal Broward and Miami-Dade counties.

Outside of cold weather impacts, our other major forecast concern to discuss this morning continues to be the rapid development of the National Wildfire (and surrounding hot spots) over the past 24 hours. While colder temperatures and lighter winds overnight have slowed the spread of the wildfire over the past few hours, the development of the nocturnal inversion and lessening of the mixing height has resulted in dense smoke remaining close to the ground. This may result in reduced visibilities at downstream locations south of the fire which could result in dangerous driving conditions through 9am this morning. Although surface wind speeds are forecast to continue to lessen throughout the course of today, enhanced fire behavior will still be possible across South Florida this afternoon as vegetation remains extremely dry and relative humidity values will remain well below the 10% percentile (perhaps even near the daily minimum) for today's date!

Returning to the synoptic scale, a departing positively tilted mid- level trough will lift northeastwards further into the western Atlantic today as mid-level flow remains out of a northwesterly direction. The combination of mid-level dry air aloft and anticyclonic flow the surface ridge of high pressure in the Gulf will result in another day of below average temperature across the region as high temperatures remain in the 60s to near 70s across all of South Florida today. With high pressure in firm control, peninsular drainage flow will keep winds out of a northerly direction for most of today before winds veer onshore along both coasts during the middle to late afternoon hours.

The loss of insolation and clear skies will set the stage for another chilly night across South Florida tonight into early Wednesday as peninsular drainage flow develops once again. Forecast low temperatures will be slightly warmer than this morning along temperatures in the low to mid 30s remain in the forecast across inland Southwestern Florida. Temperatures will remain warmer along the coast with values in the low to mid 40s across the Naples metro and temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s along the east coast. With light winds, clear skies, and a rebound in surface moisture, frost could be a concern across these areas through daybreak on Wednesday. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Glades and Hendry counties from 2am to 8am on Wednesday morning.

The axis of the aforementioned stout surface ridging will transit across the region on Wednesday as mid-level flow veers to a westerly to southwesterly direction. This subtle but important shift in the placement of the axis of surface ridging will have begin the onset of a more gradual warmup across the region. After a chilly morning with peninsular drainage flow, winds will veer out of a southeasterly direction along the east coast and southwesterly direction along the Gulf coast during the afternoon hours. This will result in high temperatures increasing back into the 70s across the region during the afternoon hours with a few inland locales potentially reaching 80 as a gradual uptick in atmospheric moisture returns to the region.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 201 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

During the second half of the week, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite have trended slightly less progressive with a mid- level shortwave propagating across the southern United States embedded in the southern stream. However model guidance continues to hint at the arrival of a surface frontal boundary across northern and central Florida during the day on Friday with a surge of deeper atmospheric moisture across our region out ahead of the boundary beginning during the day on Friday. The combination of southerly winds in the warm sector of the boundary to the north and increasing low level moisture will set the stage for above average temperatures on Friday across the region with a mentionable potential of 90s across inland areas of South Florida. The latest forecast depicts a 20-40% across most of the region on Friday afternoon with the potential of an isolated thunderstorm or two over and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon hours.

The trend of a less progressive/deep mid-level shortwave in the latest ensemble guidance (ECENS, GEFS, AI ECENS, AI GEFS) may result in the frontal boundary stalling out just north or over our region as the influence of synoptic forcing is lost. While the exact details still need to be ironed out, there will be enough moisture advection taking place out ahead and along the front to support an increased chance of showers (and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms) this weekend into early next week. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the upcoming weekend and early next week look to rise above climatological normals for this time of year.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will remain out of the north/northwest today, ranging from 8-12 kts, except at KAPF where a Gulf breeze will develop. Winds become light and variable again overnight, and veer from the southeast on Wednesday as high pressure develops.

MARINE

Issued at 201 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will gradually subside throughout the course of today as surface winds gradually wane in intensity while northeasterly swell continues to arrive across the Atlantic waters of South Florida. A Small Craft Advisory continues for all local Gulf waters through 9am this morning while the Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters will remain until 1pm this afternoon. Waves across the Gulfstream waters will lessen from 8 to 10 feet at daybreak to 5 to 6 feet by this evening. Wave heights will continue to subside across all local waters through the mid-week period as northeasterly swell gradually wanes in intensity.

BEACHES

Issued at 201 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place at Gulf coast beaches through mid morning while the risk will persist along the east coast of South Florida through this evening as northeasterly swell gradually lessens in strength. While the rip current risk will continue to lessen over the next several days, residual northeasterly swell may result in an elevated risk of rip currents persisting at Palm Beach & Broward beaches through much of the work week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 201 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

A very dry airmass remains in place across South Florida today as severe to extreme drought continues across the majority of the region. The combination of low relative humidity values and very dry vegetation will result in another afternoon of enhanced fire behavior potential. Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are forecast to range in the low to mid 20s across inland areas with some non-zero potential of even lower values in the 10s. The only exception to this will be along the immediate east coast where minimum relative humidity values will remain between 30 and 35 percent as light winds veer onshore during the afternoon hours. Although winds will continue to lessen in strength throughout the day, conditions are still conducive for the growth of existing and new fires.

The National Wildfire that continues to burn in Big Cypress National Preserve this morning has considerably expanded in size over the past 24 hours. The size of the wildfire may result in mesoscale changes to atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of the wildfire. During the overnight and daybreak hours, dense smoke may reduce visibilities downstream of the fire. During the late morning and afternoon hours, enhanced winds and lower relative humidity values may materialize near the fire due to air circulations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 66 51 74 62 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 67 45 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 67 50 75 61 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 67 49 75 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 65 50 73 62 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 65 51 74 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 67 50 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 64 48 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 65 48 75 61 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 63 45 72 56 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063- 066>071-073-168.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066-070.

Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ063-066.

High Rip Current Risk until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ069.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ650- 651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GMZ656-657- 676.