textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 639 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

- High risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches continues today. - A warming trend continues through the rest of the work week and into the weekend with temperatures remaining in general above normals.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 404 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Ensembles and global solutions show good agreement in having the broad high pressure system over the w Atl migrating further east, while its associated sfc ridge axis moves right over the southern half of the Florida peninsula. This will result in lighter winds over land and wind direction shifting to a more southerly flow.

The overall synoptic scenario will bring a warming trend as weak but persisting southerly air advection continues. Afternoon highs today should climb into the L-M80s, including most Atlantic metro areas. Similar pattern continues on Thursday with highs in the M-U80s across much of SoFlo, warmest over interior areas.

Negligible POPs will prevail in the forecast, although can't rule out a few quick east coast showers each afternoon, which will be shallow and brief.

Enhanced radiational cooling and enough lingering low lvl moisture may result in some fog potential tonight into Thu morning. Best chances will again reside over interior and western areas.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 404 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Models keep the area under the western side of a broad, deep-layered high pressure ridge through Saturday with a relatively stable and dry airmass remaining in place. Continue to expect little to no measurable POPs, outside of maybe a brief coastal shower each afternoon.

The warm trend will likely peak in the Fri-Sat timeframe when max temps will likely hit L90s on some interior locations.

The synoptic pattern quickly changes on Sunday with long range model solutions depicting a mid/upp trough racing eastward over the E CONUS, eroding the ridge across SoFlo. Meanwhile, an associated frontal boundary will push southward across the peninsula, nearing central Florida by Sunday afternoon. As of latest guidance, the best U/L dynamics and moisture pool should remain well north of the area as the FROPA looses much of its energy by the time it reaches SoFLo. ATTM, POPs for Sun Afternoon remain in the 15-20% range, with mainly isolated showers expected with this FROPA.

Temperatures cool down a little on Sunday, but with afternoon highs still remaining in the M-U80s.

Winds behind the FROPA will shift NW and become robust starting Sun evening. A significant cool down could bring nighttime low temps down 10-15 degrees compared to previous nights with colder/drier air advection behind the front intensifying. Afternoon highs will also drop in a similar fashion with U60s-L70s across SoFlo on Monday and Tuesday. But these numbers will surely be adjusted as upcoming model runs become available.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Winds will veer out of the south/southeast later this morning, ranging from 5-12 kts, except at KAPF where a Gulf breeze will develop mid afternoon. Light and variable winds return overnight, with a medium chance (40-50%) of fog development near KAPF.

MARINE

Issued at 404 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds today over the Atlantic waters and light to moderate southerly winds over the Gulf waters. Seas in the Atlantic waters remain in the 4-6 ft range today, while seas in the Gulf will remain 2 ft or less. A few brief showers may still develop over the Atlantic waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 404 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

High risk of rip currents will continue today for all Atlantic beaches. The risk will begin decreasing from south to north in the next couple of days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 67 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 82 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 81 65 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 81 66 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 66 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 79 66 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 82 66 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 80 64 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 80 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 81 62 82 63 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ172.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ173.

AM...None. GM...None.