textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 736 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across SW Florida each afternoon through the rest of the weekend. - Heat indices will rise into the upper 90s and lower 100s across most areas each afternoon through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.

- Atlantic beaches will remain under a high risk of rip currents likely through early next week.

- The arrival of deep tropical moisture across the region during the middle portion of the upcoming work week could result in periods of heavy rainfall across the region.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 409 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Models and sfc analyses depict a sfc ridge over the midwest Atl extending into the northern half of the Florida peninsula and the E Gulf, keeping a prevailing ESE wind regime in place through the weeekend. Aloft, ridging also builds back into the area, which will further limit convection across SoFlo each day.

With the robust easterly flow dominating the afternoon hours, the weaker Gulf breeze is expected to remain pinned down against the east coast, where the highest POPs/Wx coverage (60-80%) will reside in the forecast. Most of the convection should focus over interior and western areas of SoFlo each afternoon, with the east coast metro areas experiencing little or no rain (10-25%). The available moisture will likely work along the east sea breeze boundary as it pushes inland, producing scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms. Latest 00Z MFL sounding data and model soundings still show some drier air lingering aloft, which should help in limiting potential for strong/svr cells. However, any storms that do form may bring brief periods of lightning strikes, gusty winds and heavy downpours.

Afternoon temperatures will hit the upper 80s near the coasts, and into the low-mid 90s across interior and western areas of SoFlo each day. Heat indices may reach the mid 90s over east coast areas, and up into the triple digits across southwest FL.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 409 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Overall synoptic pattern will continue early next week with an upper lvl ridge dominating the region, and sfc high pressure remaining over the west Atl and the Florida peninsula. Generally easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail, with a pattern of early afternoon east coast sea breeze generating isolated to scattered showers over the Atlantic metro areas early in the afternoon hours coast, then scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms developing over interior and west coast areas as the sea breeze pushes inland.

Model sounding data keeps PWATs around 1.6 inches, with additional surges possible during the second half of the work week as the Atl ridge migrates further SE. This will result in flow veering to a more S/SSE flow, which will tap into the enhanced pool of moisture south of the peninsula. With the additional moisture advection, models bring increasing POPs/Wx (70-75% coverage) across the area for the Thu-Sat timeframe. Confidence in this more active scenario is increasing with each model run, and the latest NBM values will remain in the forecast attm.

Expect afternoon highs to continue to rise into the upper 80s over east coast locations, and into the low 90s across much of interior and western areas of SoFlo each day. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 736 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Continued breezy east-southeasterly surface winds across the region today with the exception of a gulf breeze developing at KAPF between 18-20z. SHRA/TSRA will develop across the western half of the region this PM, bringing potential bouts of sub-MVFR cigs/vis to KAPF. Winds will lessen overnight but remain east- southeasterly along the east coast of South Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Mainly moderate east to southeasterly breeze will persist across most of the local waters through the rest of the week. Some periods of afternoon gusty winds are possible over the Atlantic waters during the next couple of days. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become west southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day through the rest of the week across the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Strong onshore flow and will continue to keep a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through at least early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20 West Kendall 90 76 90 76 / 20 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 90 78 90 78 / 20 20 20 20 Homestead 89 78 89 78 / 20 20 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 88 80 87 80 / 10 20 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 87 79 87 79 / 10 20 20 20 Pembroke Pines 91 79 91 79 / 20 20 20 20 West Palm Beach 88 80 88 80 / 20 20 20 20 Boca Raton 88 80 87 81 / 10 20 20 20 Naples 90 76 91 77 / 60 30 70 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.