textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 643 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. Frequent lighting, heavy downpours, and gusty winds will be the main threats.

- Slow storm motion combined with the potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding, especially across urban and poor drainage areas.

- Peak heat index values will range between 103 and 108 across most areas of South Florida this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The recent 00z MFL sounding still shows a pretty moist and unstable airmass is persisting across much of South Florida this evening. As a result, some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity continues across parts of the region. With little forcing, most of these showers will be short-lived and mainly focus along mesoscale boundaries and thermal gradients. However, with PWATs in the 2.3 to 2.4 inch range (within the 90th percentile for this time of year), locally heavy downpours may be a threat through the morning hours. Most thunderstorm activity for Friday will be pretty similar to the last few days, focusing along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Overall, PoPs will range from 80% over interior portions of SoFlo to 50% near the coastlines. Some hi-res model soundings indicate that PWATs may climb up into the 2.5 inch range, which would be near record for early July. With mid-level high pressure holding strong over most of the southeast CONUS, steering flow will be weak and most storms will be slow moving. This will result in efficient rainfall producing thunderstorms, which poses the risk of localized urban flooding for poor drainage and low lying areas. There will be ample CAPE and steep low level lapse rates, so if storms were to get elevated enough, a few water-loaded downdrafts may create some strong wind gusts. But similar to the last few days, the risk of damaging wind gusts is low, with model DCAPE values generally less than 700 J/kg.

Shower coverage will trend down after sunset, with atmospheric moisture content also looking to start winding down as well. As the mid level high pressure centroid begins to shift back south closer to Florida on Saturday, PWATs will drop back closer to the 75th and 50th percentiles for this time of year. Winds also look to shift towards a more predominant south to southeast direction. Overall, the weather pattern won't change much, with another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected to develop along sea- breeze and and outflow boundary interactions during the afternoon. Highest chances for precipitation will favor interior and southwest Florida.

Widespread Moderate HeatRisk will be present during the period, with heat indices climbing into the 105 to 108 F range. Thunderstorm activity and cloud cover should limit the window of time for which the hottest conditions will be observed, but heat illness will be possible for individuals without proper cooling and hydration. High temperatures will be near average for this time of year, in the low 90s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The area of high pressure that had previously sat over the eastern United States will begin to slide eastward into the northern Atlantic allowing for a more unsettled pattern to develop as the weekend concludes. One last vestige of the prolonged high could remain with the ridge axis lingering over the peninsula of Florida.

At the mid-levels, the loss of the deep-layered high pressure will mean that successive troughs will create a more progressive pattern of disturbances which could lead to a generally more unsettled pattern to the north of the area. The lack of large scale mid to upper level subsidence previously provided by the high could allow for an increase in afternoon convective coverage focused along the sea breeze boundaries and any associated boundary collisions. The easterly flow will remain with the Atlantic sea breeze favored though the relatively light surface wind flow will do little to pin the Gulf sea breeze close to the coast providing an inland and west focus to diurnal convection most days.

While the diurnal thunderstorm trend of over land in the afternoon and evenings will likely remain, there could be an uptick in late evening, overnight, and early morning convection over the local waters as well. Additional tropical moisture could move across the region early next week which could also help increase convective coverage for a day or two before things normalize as the moisture departs. Lightning, gusty winds, and localized heavy rainfall appear to be the main concerns at the larger scale with thunderstorms in this time period. Heat index values will continue to exceed 100 most days with 105 to 110 values not out of the question on days with less cloud cover and more time under the sunshine in the morning before convective initiation. Probabilistic HeatRisk shows 50+ percent chances for Major or higher HeatRisk developing across both the east coast metro area and the Naples metro area by mid-week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Mainly VFR this morning and then scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon into early evening which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Light and variable winds early this morning becoming SE around 10 kts, with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Light and variable winds overnight across most of the region with some isolated shower activity continuing through the morning. Winds will shift out of the south to southeast during the afternoon. Over the Gulf, south winds look to trend more west-southwesterly during the latter half of the day. Overall, wave heights will be around 2 to 3 feet. Some thunderstorm activity may spill into marine areas each afternoon, creating locally higher seas and gusty and erratic winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 79 91 79 / 60 30 60 20 West Kendall 92 76 92 76 / 80 30 70 20 Opa-Locka 93 79 93 79 / 70 30 60 20 Homestead 92 79 92 79 / 60 20 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 80 91 80 / 60 20 50 20 N Ft Lauderdale 91 79 91 79 / 70 20 50 20 Pembroke Pines 94 80 94 81 / 70 30 50 20 West Palm Beach 91 78 91 78 / 70 20 60 20 Boca Raton 91 79 91 79 / 60 20 50 20 Naples 91 78 91 79 / 50 30 50 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.