textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 750 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Atlantic coast during high tide cycles. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue today with a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

South Florida will enjoy one last day of dry and pleasant weather today thanks to the lack of synoptic forcing and the presence of an anomalously dry air mass over the region. PWATs overnight remained in the 1-1.5" range, and ACARS data and the 00z MFL sounding showed a substantial pocket of dry air between 850-200mb. High-res ensemble data suggest these conditions will remain generally unchanged today, with sustained subsidence, sunny skies, and near zero chances for precipitation.

A gradual transition period will begin late this afternoon and overnight. A mid-level shortwave impulse will approach from the Gulf; as it does, southerly to southwesterly flow along the atmospheric column will usher a moisture-rich airmass over the area, with PWATs expected to rise back into the 1.8-2.0 inch range. By Tuesday, the influence of this impulse and the increase in moisture across the area will allow for the return of scattered showers and thunderstorms across South Florida (with PoPs in the 50-60% range). CAMs suggest activity could begin shortly after daybreak, starting across southwest FL and drifting eastward across the region.

Temperatures will rise back into the upper 80s and low 90s through the short term period. Overnight lows will drop into the low 70s across the East Coast and down into the mid 60s across the interior.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Mid-level ridging will begin to build on Wednesday as the much- discussed Nor'easter drifts north and dissipates. Near the surface, high pressure will continue to build across the western Atlantic, bringing the return of easterly/southeasterly flow across the area. Moisture advection will continue, with PWATs forecast to continue hovering near 2 inches through the period. This pattern will promote continued scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm development each afternoon. Storm activity will likely favor interior and southwestern Florida due to the stronger easterly flow during the latter half of the week. There is increasing confidence that temperatures will increase back into the upper 80s and low 90s areawide over the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 750 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. Light and variable winds this morning will briefly increase out of the west at east coast sites, with a southeasterly breeze at 8-10 kts developing after 18Z. KAPF will see winds increasing out of the west at 8-10 kts this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Light and variable winds return overnight at all sites, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms potentially impacting KAPF tomorrow by the end of the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Conditions across the local waters continue to improve as the influence of the Nor'easter diminishes this week and surface high builds over the area. However, lingering northerly-northeasterly swell could persist across the Palm Beach waters today and tonight. Generally light and variable winds will prevail across all local waters today, gradually becoming more southerly overnight into Tuesday as surface high builds over the western Atlantic. Wave heights across the Atlantic should remain in the 3-5 feet range today. By Tuesday, all local seas should remain in the 1-3 feet range. Chances for precipitation increase Tuesday onwards.

BEACHES

Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Coastal flooding remains likely along the East coast during the high tide cycles today. Observations continue to out-perform guidance by a decent margin, leading us to anticipate tidal gauges to reach Moderate once again today. As such, A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastline, while a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for southern Miami-Dade and mainland Monroe, where Minor stage coastal flooding could be possible.

A high risk for rip currents also continues for all Atlantic coast beaches as an persistent northerly/northeasterly swell continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 74 86 75 / 0 10 60 50 West Kendall 88 73 86 74 / 0 10 70 40 Opa-Locka 89 73 87 74 / 0 0 60 50 Homestead 89 74 87 75 / 0 10 70 50 Fort Lauderdale 87 73 86 74 / 0 0 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 88 74 87 75 / 10 0 50 50 Pembroke Pines 88 73 86 74 / 0 0 60 50 West Palm Beach 88 73 88 74 / 10 0 40 40 Boca Raton 87 73 87 74 / 10 0 40 50 Naples 87 73 86 73 / 0 20 60 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ168- 172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.