textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Isolated shower activity will continue along the East Coast early this evening. - Surface winds will begin to increase tonight and remain elevated during early next week. Hazardous marine and beach conditions along the east coast of South Florida is forecast beginning on Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1254 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

The overall philosophy for the Days 1-7 forecast did not change with the afternoon package. However, the NBM guidance did come in a little low on precipitation chances through Monday, especially given lingering low level moisture as captured by ACARS soundings, so went ahead and bumped those up by 5-10%. Otherwise, expect a pleasant evening with lows in the low 60s over the interior and upper 60s along the coasts.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 132 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

06z Mesoanalysis depicts a dewpoint and temperature gradient across the region with current temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s across southwestern Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region with very light easterly flow keeping temperatures warmer in the low to mid 70s across the east coast metro. Outside of isolated shower activity advecting in periodically along the immediate east coast over the next several hours, the primary concern in the short term will be the potential of patches/areas of dense fog across portions of South Florida through daybreak. The combination of calm winds, a developing near-surface inversion, and plentiful low level boundary moisture with clear skies provides favorable conditions for fog development. Recent ACARS data from nearby KRSW depicts not only a subsidence inversion (mid-level ridging building overhead) but also a developing surface inversion just above the surface. Forecasting fog can prove to be a challenge when attempting to get the spatial extent as well as severity of reduced visibility. HREF and SREF guidance however still maintain a good signal across most of the interior of the region, especially across the southern half of the peninsula. We will continue to monitor traffic camera and observations for the need of Special Weather Statements issuances or Dense Fog Advisories through daybreak.

The residual envelope of moisture from a decayed frontal boundary will remain in place across South Florida today with forecast precipitable water (PWAT) values remaining in the 1.0 to 1.3 inch range, primarily in the lowest 1km of the boundary layer. Diurnal heating will once again create a meso low over land areas of South Florida and a meso high over the nearshore Atlantic and Gulf waters. This will veer surface winds onshore, northwesterly along the Gulf coast and northeasterly along the east coast of South Florida late this morning into the early afternoon hours. Middle level ridging across Cuba and Florida Straits is forecast to continue to strengthen today as the next lobe of mid-level troughing advects well to our north over the northeastern United States. This will result in southwesterly 500mb winds prevailing across the region today as we remain to the north of the mid-level ridge axis. This subtle wind shift at the surface and in the mid-levels could set the stage for some coastal convergence along the east coast of South Florida today as the upwind prorogation vector (SW) is directly inverse to coastal surface winds (NE). While shower activity will be low-capped, higher spatial coverage could be possible. Have adjusted rain chances a tad higher along the east coast today to account for the subtle convergence signal in the parameters mentioned above. Temperatures will remain above average once again today with forecast high temperatures in the low to mid 80s once again. The NBM 75th percentile even hints at the potential for a pocket of upper 80s across inland southwestern Florida this afternoon which may certainly be in the cards given light winds inland and ample sunshine.

At the surface, a strong and expansive area of high pressure is forecast to develop over much of the eastern United States late tonight into Monday. Cluster analysis indicates that pressure heights (1030+ mb) over much of the eastern United States will be nearing the 96-98th percentile based on historical observations. Why is this factoid important for us here in South Florida? The anomalous strong surface ridging combined with the stalled frontal boundary to our south will result in a developing pressure gradient across the region late tonight into Monday, with gusty winds forecast across the local Atlantic waters and the east coast of South Florida. This will usher in a period of hazardous beach and marine conditions for our Atlantic beaches and waters, for more specifics on that portion of the forecast, check our the pertinent sections below. Greater vertical mixing due to higher surface wind speeds will also result in cooler temps across the eastern half of the region on Monday with forecast high temperatures remaining in the upper 70s along the immediate east coast to low 80s across southwestern Florida.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 132 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

With the gradual shift of the axis of surface high pressure into the western Atlantic waters, surface winds will remain gusty out of northeasterly direction on Tuesday while gradually lessening in intensity as the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures will remain close to seasonal norms thanks to the vertical mixing provided by surface northeasterly winds across the region. By Tuesday, the axis of mid-level ridging aloft will slide northward across the Gulf which will allow for a continued subsidence inversion across the region, keeping any moisture confined to the surface. Once situated over the region, forecast models depict mid-level ridging remaining in place for much of the upcoming work week, keeping copious amounts of dry air in place over South Florida and rain chances limited in nature. Persistent surface high pressure over the western Atlantic waters and southeastern United States will keep the northeasterly breeze with us on Wednesday and Thursday, albeit lessening in intensity further along in the week. The temperature gradient across the region each afternoon will remain the same with high temperatures in the upper 70s along the east coast and temps in the 80s across southwestern Florida. The current forecast has not budged much over the past 24 hours, Christmas Eve as well as Christmas Day here in South Florida will remain near average temperature wise with an easterly breeze. Current wake-up forecast temperatures on Christmas morning range from the middle to upper 60s across the east coast metro area, upper 50s to low 60s across the gulf coast metro area and Lake Okeechobee.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light easterly winds today will become gusty tomorrow, up to 20-25 kts, as high pressure builds.

MARINE

Issued at 132 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Light winds this morning will veer to an northeasterly component across the local Atlantic waters and northwesterly component across the local Gulf waters this afternoon. Seas will remain mainly in the 2-3 feet range across the Atlantic waters (1-2 feet across the Gulf waters) today with locally higher seas and winds possible in and around any shower activity. With the enhancement of northeasterly winds across the region beginning late tonight into Monday, a period of hazardous marine conditions is forecast for our local Atlantic waters beginning on Monday morning and continuing into at least Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for our local Atlantic waters from 4am Monday through at least 7am on Tuesday as wave heights in the Gulf Stream will build to 7+ feet during the day on Monday. Sustained winds will also exceed Small Craft Advisory across Biscayne Bay later on Monday morning, and a Small Craft Advisory has also been issued accordingly. Alterations on advisory timing and duration may be needed over the next two days.

BEACHES

Issued at 132 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches today. This risk will then expand and enhance to high at all east coast beaches during the day on Monday as onshore winds increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 70 79 71 80 / 10 0 10 10 West Kendall 66 81 67 80 / 0 0 10 10 Opa-Locka 69 80 69 80 / 10 0 10 10 Homestead 69 80 70 80 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 70 78 71 78 / 10 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 70 78 71 78 / 10 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 68 80 69 80 / 10 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 69 79 70 79 / 10 10 20 10 Boca Raton 70 80 70 79 / 10 0 20 10 Naples 65 83 65 83 / 0 0 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 4 AM EST Monday through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.