textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 643 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm activity near Lake Okeechobee will gradually dissipate over the next several hours. Another round of showers and storms will be possible across the eastern half of South Florida tomorrow afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures are possible heading into the middle and latter portion of the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 643 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A line of showers and sub-severe thunderstorm activity continues to drift eastward just to the southwest of Lake Okeechobee this evening. The window for a conditional threat for a strong to marginally severe storm will be coming to a conclusion shortly as the onset of sunset will be upon us in the next few hours. That being said, excessive lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds could still impact locales near Lake O during the early evening hours. Winds will become light and variable overnight with shower and thunderstorm gradually decreasing in intensity and coverage.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A weak mid level trough will remain near the region today with the trough axis just offshore in the western Atlantic. This will help to promote more of a northwesterly wind flow aloft throughout most of today. At the surface, South Florida will remain on the western side of an area of high pressure centered off in the western Atlantic. At the same time, a weakening cold front will gradually push through the Southeastern portion of the country and towards the Gulf Coast heading into tonight. Since the surface high pressure will remain the dominate synoptic feature in the weather pattern across South Florida today, this will bring rather light winds across the region that will be mainly sea breeze driven heading into the afternoon hours. Moisture advection will be taking place throughout the day and the latest forecast model soundings show PWAT values increasing and ranging between 1.3 and 1.5 inches heading into the afternoon hours. This will be enough moisture to support scattered shower and thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon. Convective initiation will be driven by the sea breeze boundaries as they push inland and interact with each other.

While the chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain on the lower side, there will be enough instability in place to support a few strong storms across the interior where the sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries interact with each other. With 500mb temperatures hovering between -11 and -12C this afternoon and DCAPE values ranging between 700 and 900 J/kg, the strongest thunderstorms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and small hail. High temperatures this afternoon will generally rise into the lower 80s across the east coast and into the upper 80s to around 90 across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading into Sunday, a secondary mid level shortwave impulse will approach from the Gulf later in the day as the surface frontal boundary pushes further south into Northern and Central Florida. This will help to weaken the surface high across South Florida and it will create a wind shift to more of a south to southwesterly direction especially heading into the afternoon hours. While the sea breezes will develop once again on Sunday, with the south southwesterly wind flow in place, the Gulf breeze will be more dominate as the east coast sea breeze most likely ends up getting pinned over the metro areas. The combination of the mid level shortwave approaching the area combined with the weakening frontal boundary moving closer to the region could provide extra sources of lift over portions of South Florida. While the exact details still remain a bit uncertain, this could lead to the potential of some stronger storm development on Sunday afternoon as instability increases during peak diurnal heating. The stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy downpours, and potentially some small hail. High temperatures on Sunday will be warm as mid to upper 80s will be common across most of the area. Some interior locations along and south of Alligator Alley could see high temperatures rise to around 90 Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The mid level shortwave impulse pushes across the region on Sunday night into Monday morning, and it moves into the western Atlantic along with the mid level trough axis by Monday afternoon. At the surface, the latest global and ensemble guidance remains in good agreement with cyclogenesis taking place allowing for a broad area low pressure to develop off the Carolina coast on Sunday night. This intensifying area of low pressure then gradually lifts northeastward in the western Atlantic during the day on Monday. The developing low will help to push the frontal boundary across the region sometime during the day on Monday, however, there does remain some uncertainty in regards to how fast it actually pushes through the region. The ECMWF guidance suite pushes it through faster and has it through the region on Monday morning while the GFS guidance suite holds it back and does not have it pass through until later in the day. With the best dynamics and instability racing off to the northeast with the developing low, the chances for strong thunderstorms will be on the downward trend on Monday as conditions will become less favorable as the trough axis pushes offshore. High temperatures on Monday will generally rise into the upper 80s across most areas, with lower 90s possible across the interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, rather strong mid level ridging centered over the southwestern Gulf will quickly expand eastward towards the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the surface, high pressure gradually builds in from the north and centers over the Florida Peninsula through the middle of the week. This will lead to mainly dry conditions along with warm temperatures through the middle of the week. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 80s across the east coast metro areas. High temperatures in the lower 90s will be common across the interior as well as most of Southwest Florida during this time frame.

Uncertainty starts to increase heading into the second half of the week as the latest ensemble guidance remains in disagreement in regards to a developing mid level trough further to the north that will push into the Great Lakes and the Northeast during this time frame. The discrepancies in the guidance are with how far south this trough actually makes it. The ECMWF ensembles show a stronger ridge holding over the area, while the GFS suite weakens the ridge over South Florida heading into the end of the week as the trough pushes southeastward. This will ultimately determine how far southward the next frontal boundary pushes. The ECMWF solutions would feature drier and warm weather as high pressure would hold strong while the GFS suite would potentially introduce a chance of showers and storms later in the week as the front pushes closer to the area. With this being towards the end of the forecast period, the latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and keeps things relatively dry for now. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Decreasing SHRA/TSRA across the region with light and variable winds after 00z will give way to light south-southwesterly flow across the region on Sunday before both sea-breeze's kick in during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Confidence remains low in exact impact to any terminals but have added in VCSH & VCTS for east coast terminals after 17z/20z on Sunday. Patchy inland fog is possible across the western half of the region overnight tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters today. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds will become southwesterly in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Winds become south to southwesterly across all local waters on Sunday as a weakening frontal boundary approaches from the north. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and Sunday across the local waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 71 86 71 86 / 10 40 10 20 West Kendall 67 88 67 88 / 10 40 0 10 Opa-Locka 70 88 71 88 / 10 40 10 20 Homestead 70 86 70 87 / 10 30 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 70 85 71 84 / 10 50 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 71 85 71 85 / 10 50 10 20 Pembroke Pines 72 89 72 89 / 10 50 10 20 West Palm Beach 69 86 69 85 / 10 50 20 20 Boca Raton 71 85 71 85 / 10 50 20 20 Naples 69 85 69 86 / 10 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.