textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 612 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Areas of Dense Fog will develop across the interior as well as Southwest Florida early this morning, and then again late tonight into early Saturday morning. - Very warm temperatures will continue across South Florida today and into most of the upcoming weekend. - A cold front will push through the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening increasing the chances of showers during this time frame. Much colder and drier conditions will develop early next week behind the front.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 129 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Broad and expansive mid level ridging will slowly continue to shift eastward into the Atlantic today through Saturday. At the surface, South Florida will remain on the western periphery of a large area of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic during this time frame. The positioning of the surface high will provide a generally light southerly synoptic wind flow through the first part of the weekend. As sea breezes develop each afternoon, winds will gradually become more southeasterly across the eastern half of the region, and more south to southwesterly across Southwest Florida. With plenty of subsidence taking place, dry conditions will prevail across the region during this time frame along with very warm temperatures. High temperatures today and Saturday will generally rise into the lower 80s along the coasts, however, they will rise into the mid to upper 80s across the interior. Some locations across interior portions of Southwest Florida may rise to around 90 each afternoon.

Conditions will remain favorable for areas of fog to develop early this morning, and then once again late tonight into early Saturday morning across the interior areas as well as Southwest Florida. Some of this fog will have the potential to become dense reducing visibility to a quarter of a mile or less in spots. Any fog that does develop will gradually lift after sunrise this morning, and then again on Saturday morning. Low temperatures tonight into Saturday morning will generally range from the upper 50s and lower 60s across Southwest Florida to the mid to upper 60s across the east coast metro areas.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

A significant pattern change will begin to take shape during the second half of the weekend and into early next week as the mid level flow becomes more zonal on Sunday before an amplifying mid level trough digs into the region early next week. At the surface, an area of low pressure will rapidly develop off of the North Carolina Coastline and quickly push northeastward into the Atlantic on Sunday. At the surface, the cold front associated with this system will extend southwestward and it will push across Northern and Central Florida as Sunday progresses. The latest global and ensemble guidance has come into better agreement with the timing of the frontal passage across South Florida and this is anticipated to occur later on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Guidance also remains in good agreement that the best dynamics associated with this system will race off well to the northeast of the region. While there will be enough moisture advection and lift occurring out ahead of the front to support a low to medium chance of showers on Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, chances of thunderstorm development will be extremely limited. If any thunderstorms were to develop, they would be isolated and confined to the local waters on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. With southwesterly winds in place out ahead of the front, high temperatures on Sunday will remain on the warm side as they will rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. The only exception to this will be along the Southwest Florida coastline, where highs will rise into the upper 70s to around 80 due to the onshore flow.

Behind the front, a stout area of high pressure will rapidly build into the region at the surface during the early portion of the week bringing a much drier and cooler air mass to South Florida during this time frame. The strength of the high building into the region will cause the pressure gradient across South Florida to rapidly tighten. This will allow for a breezy and gusty northwesterly wind flow to remain in place on Sunday night into Monday which will cause strong cold air advection to take place during this time frame. Winds will slowly begin to subside on Tuesday as winds start to veer and become more northerly later in the day. Low temperatures on Sunday night into Monday morning will be chilly as they will drop into the lower 40s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. Low temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s will be common along the east and west coast. With cold air advection remaining strong, high temperatures will struggle to reach 70 area wide and will remain in the mid to upper 60s across most areas.

Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest time period of the upcoming week and the latest guidance suite has trended colder across the board during this time frame. Lows on Tuesday could drop into the lower to mid 30s across interior portions of Southwest Florida while upper 30s and lower 40s will be common across the rest of Southwest Florida. Lows in the lower to mid 40s will be common across the east coast metro areas on Tuesday morning. When the breezy northwesterly wind flow is factored in on Monday night into Tuesday morning, wind chill values will be even colder as they could drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s west of Lake Okeechobee. Wind chill values in the mid to upper 30s will be common across the rest of the region during this time frame. With cold air advection continuing on Tuesday, highs once again will only rise into the mid to upper 60s area wide. While Wednesday morning will feature chilly temperatures once again, there will be some slight moderation when compared to Tuesday morning.

As high pressure begins to shift off into the western Atlantic, a moderating trend in temperatures will begin on Wednesday as winds gradually veer and become east southeasterly as the day progresses. This moderating trend in temperatures will continue heading into the second half of the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR prevails for the period. Winds increase out of the SSE across the east coast terminals to around 10 kts after 16z, while winds become SW at KAPF this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 129 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

A gentle to moderate south to southeasterly wind flow will remain in place through the first part of the weekend across most of the local waters. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become south southwesterly each afternoon during this time frame as a Gulf breeze develops. Hazardous marine conditions may develop across all local waters later on Sunday and last through early next week as winds and seas increase behind a departing cold front. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range between 2 to 4 feet today before diminishing to 2 feet or less on Saturday. Seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less through the first part of the weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 129 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Due to a lingering northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents will continue for the Palm Beaches through this evening. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue today for the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 68 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 85 63 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 84 66 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 83 67 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 81 67 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 82 67 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 85 67 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 83 65 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 83 65 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 83 63 82 62 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.