textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Stronger wind gusts continue early this week along with hazardous marine and beach conditions for the next few days. Elevated seas and near Gale force winds will be observed.

- Drier conditions early this week with only some isolated weak shower activity possible across SE Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

It is exceptionally dry out there today with respect to atmospheric moisture content across South Florida. Current mesoanalysis shows PWATs ranging between 1.1 and 1.3", which are within the 20th and 30th percentiles for the date according to HREF guidance. Both the 12Z MFL and regional ACARS soundings show an immense dry layer in the mid to upper levels in tandem with a distinguishable moist layer in the lower levels roughly between the first 1-3 km of the atmosphere. Looking at the bigger picture as to why this abundance of dry air is in place, a sharp longwave upper trough has continued to dig further south into South Florida, allowing dry air advection to occur on the upstream side of it. Latest surface analysis map from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) shows an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure reading 1035 mb (which remains near the upper echelon of climatology for this time of year) still centered well to our north around the vicinity of the Allegheny Mountains in Pennsylvania. To our south, we continue to have a stalled frontal boundary over the Florida Straits and near the proximity of northern Cuba, which is where we precisely find the highest moisture content (generalized PWATs of 1.5-2.0") with widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms inhabiting this maritime region.

Despite our atmospheric column being so dry, we are still expected to have isolated showers (coverage of 10-20% as per our PoPs) develop across South Florida today as they move briskly to the southwest along our prevailing northeasterly surface flow (which continues to be caused by the tight pressure gradient between the record-strong high to our north and the stalled frontal boundary to our south). Given the overall layout of the atmospheric profile today, these showers should be fairly short-lived and shallow- layered as they swipe across our peninsula. This light to perhaps occasionally moderate precipitation should be able to penetrate far enough inland this afternoon to possibly bring some flimsy rainfall to the interior around the Lake Okeechobee region and portions of the western half of South Florida. Once we lose the component of diurnal heating tonight, isolated showers should stay relatively confined to the east coast as they push onshore from the Atlantic. Shouldn't be more than just some nuisance rain to mist at times with no flood threat to be concerned about. Similar to yesterday, it will stay breezy across South Florida with winds gusting out of the northeast to around 25-35 mph.

Should be a copy and paste forecast for tomorrow, with a plethora of dry air staying in place across South Florida but enough low-level moisture to support the development of isolated showers, mainly across the east coast with PoPs below 20%. Model guidance shows the ridge axis over the Allegheny Mountains shifting a bit to the north toward the Canadian border tomorrow, which should allow our winds to come down just by a sliver, but to no avail with respect to our local impacts. With MSLPs (mean sea-level pressure) expected to remain well above average for this time of year around the vicinity of the Great Lakes and a regional pressure gradient still existing across our region, it is forecast to be another breezy day with NBM guidance suggesting northeasterly wind gusts of 20-30 mph across much of South Florida.

High temperatures will stay nice and comfortable in the low to mid 80s across South Florida today (which is right around where we should be this time of year) and Tuesday due to the breezier-than- normal conditions and a drier and less humid air mass having filtered down the peninsula behind our stalled front to the south. It will take another day or two for those across Southeast Florida to feel the modest but pleasant drop in low temperatures; but those around the Lake, over the interior, and along the Gulf coast will already be waking up to temperatures in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday morning while the east coast metros will settle for the mid 70s. Hang in there, the slight cooldown is coming!

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

For the middle of end of this week, enhanced jet stream dynamics in the western US will enhance the development of a deep trough out west, which in return will strengthen the ridge over the central US and an upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. At the same time, guidance is hinting at a return in deeper moisture to average or slightly above average levels. With upper- level high pressure providing some forcing for ascent along with diurnal processes, rain chances will begin to increase again for the end of this week and upcoming weekend. Mid-level and upper- level flow for this time period will shift to the SW as the region will sit on the downstream side of the trough pattern, which will favor the highest rain chances across SE Florida between 30-50%. Uncertainty remains in how much rain could be seen, but currently this setup is not anticipated to result in the type of rainfall we saw this past weekend.

High temperatures for the middle to end of this week and into next weekend are expected in the low to mid 80s each day, with overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 60s for SW Florida to the upper 60s and low 70s for SE Florida.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions and gusty northeasterly flow is expected through the period. A few isolated showers may be possible through the period however not enough confidence on any one time interval to explicitly include in TAF.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Hazardous conditions will continue early this week as a strong pressure gradient is present and a system near the Mid-Atlantic continues to produce a large NE swell. Strong winds at 20-30 kts with gusts occasionally reaching near Gale force are expected today before starting to decrease mid-week. In addition, seas will remain 10-14 feet in the Atlantic today and 6-8 feet in the Gulf before slowly decreasing in the mid-week period. Seas are expected to remain at 8-10 feet in the Atlantic through at least Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday across all local waters, including Biscayne Bay and Lake Okeechobee.

BEACHES

Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues for all Atlantic coast beaches early this week as strong northeasterly winds and swell continue. In addition, large breaking waves of 7-9 feet in the Palm Beaches surf zone keeps a High Surf Advisory in effect through Tuesday, with the Broward beaches added to the advisory on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 75 84 71 84 / 40 20 10 0 West Kendall 73 85 69 85 / 30 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 74 85 70 85 / 40 10 10 0 Homestead 74 85 70 85 / 30 20 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 84 71 84 / 40 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 75 84 71 84 / 40 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 73 84 70 84 / 40 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 73 83 71 84 / 40 20 10 20 Boca Raton 74 84 71 84 / 40 20 10 10 Naples 69 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ610-630-650- 651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.