textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 701 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

- A fog/smoke mix may create exceptionally dangerous driving conditions across portions of I-75, Tamiami Trail, and SR-29 through daybreak this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for all of inland South Florida through 9am.

- Rain chances will trend upwards over the next several days, but widespread meaningful rain amounts are not expected.

- An isolated thunderstorm is possible today with higher odds on Saturday afternoon. Lightning could spark additional wildfire activity given ongoing dry conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 143 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

The combination of clear skies, continued moisture resurgence via light southerly winds, and a nocturnal inversion have resulted in the development of dense fog across most of inland South Florida this morning. Residual smoke from the National & Regal fires in southwestern Florida may act to create exceptionally dense fog across these areas, resulting in visibilities nearing zero at times and dangerous driving conditions. Motorists are advised to exercise extra caution if traveling along inland routes through 9am this morning, especially along Alligator Alley and SR-29 in Collier/Hendry counties. 08Z mesoanalysis in tandem with recent aircraft data from Southwest Florida International Airport depict an environment conducive for continued fog development (nocturnal inversion and surface saturation) and a continued expansion of fog across portions of the region now through daybreak. A Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for most of inland South Florida through 9am this morning for visibilities below a quarter mile with the caveat that smoke combining with fog could result in even lower visibilities close to zero at times. With the gradual enhancement of surface winds after sunrise, the inversion layer will gradually begin to lift higher into the vertical column resulting in dense fog becoming low ceiling stratus and eventually eroding as diurnal mixing occurs.

The prevalent pattern of troughing over the eastern United States will continue as a mid-level shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet-stream slides eastward across the southern Mississippi River Valley today. The progression of this synoptic feature eastward will result in a frontal boundary sliding eastward and eventually stalling across the Gulf and northern Florida later today. While South Florida will remain in between deeper tropical moisture to the south and the envelope of deeper moisture pooling along the frontal boundary, the continued increase of low-level moisture will usher in the potential of some shower (and perhaps isolated thunderstorm) activity near Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach County during the mid afternoon to early evening hours as low-level convergence is maximized. Forecast model soundings show marginal instability with residual mid-level dry air in place. While it remains to be seen if deeper convective cores can develop, modeled DCAPE values of 900-1100 J/kg on recent HRRR/RAP soundings suggest that any thunderstorm activity could prove to be gusty. Light winds and ample sunshine will result in a quick warm-up after fog erodes with forecast high temperatures this afternoon ranging from near 90 across inland South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 80s along the coast.

The continued advection of the mid-level shortwave across the Florida Peninsula on Saturday will result in the frontal boundary pushing slightly more south across Central Florida and deeper atmospheric moisture arriving across South Florida. The orientation of the mid-level shortwave with a modest upper level subtropical jet-streak overhead and southwesterly 500mb winds coupled with the development of an east coast sea-breeze (southeasterly winds at the surface) could set the stage for a conditional potential of strong to marginally severe storms on Saturday afternoon. Forecast model soundings along the immediate east coast on Saturday afternoon depict the potential of enlarged hodographs, cold 500mb temperatures, and an inverted V sounding with residual mid-level dry air. Potential hazards include gusty winds, small hail, and a non-zero chance of a quick spin-up in this type of setup. While exact details will continue to be ironed out, there is indeed a window on Saturday afternoon, particularly across the northeastern half of South Florida for an isolated strong to marginally severe storm or two. High temperatures on Saturday afternoon will range from the low to mid 80s along the coast to temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 across southern inland areas.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 143 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

As concurrent lobes of vorticity associated with the mid- level shortwave slide across the Florida Peninsula late Saturday into early Sunday, the stalled frontal boundary draped across Central Florida will begin to pick up momentum and slide southward into South Florida. With the forecasted arrival of the frontal boundary across the region during the morning hours, the veering of 500mb flow to a northwesterly component as the axis of the mid- level shortwave slides east into the western Atlantic waters, and the deepest atmospheric moisture pushed to the south of the region, rain chances will trend lower on Sunday as instability and atmospheric moisture content decreases. A northeasterly breeze during the afternoon hours will result in a temperature gradient across the region with forecasted high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s along the east coast to temperatures in the upper 80s across inland southwestern Florida. Residual moisture and diurnal heating will support rain chances in the 20-40% range across most of South Florida on Sunday afternoon.

As the frontal boundary becomes frontolytic in the vicinity of our region on Monday, the moisture associated with it will remain across the region. With the departure of the mid-level shortwave well to the east of the region and the departure of the subtropical jet-stream well to the north of the region, a quiet period on the synoptic scale is ushered into the region as a mid- level ridge of high pressure develops over the Gulf and gradually slides eastwards towards South Florida on Tuesday. A developing pressure gradient across the region will usher in breezy conditions along the east coast through mid-week as a resultant temperature gradient occurs once again. Deeper atmospheric moisture will rotate into the region around the axis of surface ridging situated in the western Atlantic waters. Precipitable water values in the 1.3 to 1.6 range will support the potential of isolated to scattered showers pushing onshore along the eastern half of the region throughout this period while a mid-level subsidence inversion will act to keep any type of convective activity vertically capped. While the axis of mid-level ridging will slide across South Florida on Wednesday and well into the western Atlantic on Thursday and Friday, the region will remain under the influence of the ridge aloft for the duration of the work week. At the surface, high pressure is also forecast to remain in control with a consistent easterly flow regime. Forecast high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to low 80s along the East coast to mid to upper 80s along the Gulf coast, Monday through Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Sub MVFR cigs will continue to be possible at KAPF through 13z. Winds will remain mainly SE to SSE around 10kt with higher gusts, except for a westerly shift at APF with afternoon sea breezes. Added in VCSH at northern east coast terminals to account for scattered shower activity.

MARINE

Issued at 143 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Outside of locally elevated seas and winds in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity, conditions will remain benign across all local waters into the upcoming weekend. Locally dense fog may occur this morning across the nearshore Gulf and Lake Okeechobee waters, which will result in lower visibilities than normal. The development of a pressure gradient next week will act to establish a breezy to at times gusty easterly wind flow across the region during the beginning of next week. This will usher in a duration of likely Advisory conditions across the Atlantic waters during this time frame.

BEACHES

Issued at 143 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Light southerly winds across the region today will result in a continued reduction in the rip current threat at east coast beaches, as a moderate risk of rip currents will persist at Palm Beach County beaches. With winds forecast to enhance out of an easterly onshore direction early next week, an elevated risk of rip currents is forecast to return along the east coast of South Florida.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

The development of a nocturnal inversion overnight and increasing low-level moisture has resulted in the development of dense fog across inland portions of the region early this morning. Locations that experience a combination of residual fire smoke and dense fog could see visibilities drop to near zero. These dangerous reductions pose a serious hazard to motorists and travelers should avoid these areas. Winds will enhance out of a southerly direction after sunrise as dense fog gradually wanes and/or lifts into a low cloud deck. Winds will generally stay at or below 10 mph, but infrequent gusts between 15 to 20 mph cannot be completely ruled out. Relative humidity values will continue to moderate today with the increasing moisture, but still drop into the upper 40s to low 50s across inland areas during the afternoon hours.

This weekend, a weakening frontal boundary will cross South Florida and bring a decent chance for at least some rain across the entire region. However, rainfall totals will likely not be enough in most locations to have a significant impact on the ongoing drought or wildfire activity. Less than a quarter of an inch will be common, with isolated locations possibly receiving 0.5-0.75". The primary window for this rainfall will be on Saturday afternoon and evening.

Easterly flow will become established next week and keep a low chance for scattered showers in the forecast, especially across the eastern half of South Florida. But meaningful rainfall, or exceptionally dangerous fire weather conditions are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 68 83 67 / 20 20 40 30 West Kendall 85 63 86 62 / 10 10 40 20 Opa-Locka 84 67 85 66 / 20 30 50 30 Homestead 83 67 84 65 / 10 10 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 81 67 82 66 / 20 40 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 81 68 83 66 / 30 40 60 40 Pembroke Pines 85 67 86 66 / 20 30 50 40 West Palm Beach 83 67 83 66 / 40 60 70 50 Boca Raton 82 66 83 65 / 40 50 60 50 Naples 82 65 79 63 / 20 50 30 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066- 067-069>071-073.

AM...None. GM...None.