textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will spread from south to north tonight and early Sunday, with best chances of rain over metro SE Florida. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible. - High risk of rip currents through late tonight for all Atlantic beaches.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1205 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Very tricky rainfall forecast for tonight into Sunday across South FL. Low level moisture is expected to increase this evening as the flow becomes more E/SE and a weak low in the SE Gulf eventually moves over the far southern peninsula early Sunday, riding along a weak frontal boundary that will slowly lift north across Southern FL. At the upper levels, there is a deep trough that will dig through the eastern US with the trough axis expected to move across FL sometime late Sunday night. This will also help push a cold front through the area overnight Sunday into early Monday morning.

Given the weak surface features involved, not a surprise that the hi- res guidance is all over the place regarding rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours. 25th percentile amounts are generally a couple tenths of an inch, where the 90th percentile precip amounts show pockets of 1-3 inches across the east coast metro. HREF PWAT values peak at 1.5-1.8 inches, with the highest PWAT values centered over far SE FL. Given the high end potential if all the ingredients come together, WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain across the east coast metro which is reasonable given that if the higher end numbers occur, there would be a limited urban flood threat across typical poor drainage locations.

Bulk of the showers and thunderstorms should be tonight and into early Sunday across South FL, with diminishing PoPs as the day progresses on Sunday with the weak low moving off to the east. Residual low level moisture will keep a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast on Sunday until the cold front arrives late Sunday night.

Temperatures this weekend will be slightly above normal with highs in the lower 80s. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to upper 60s across the east coast metro.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. Robust northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across the Florida peninsula. Wind gusts could reach the 30 mph range along the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening.

POPs also drop back to single digits on Monday, although latest NBM insists in keeping just a sliver of slight chances of showers right along the Atlantic coast through the afternoon hours. Afterwards, the dry air makes a final push and brings POPs to near zero through the rest of the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the rest of the forecast period.

Coolest days should be Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Light ESE winds 5-10 kts tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected overnight into early Sunday morning. Winds becoming WNW 10-15 kts Sunday morning through the remainder of the period. SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings expected overnight, with some IFR ceilings possible over APF early Sunday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Moderate easterly winds continue through tonight, then winds shift northerly and increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions will likely reach advisory levels by Monday morning with the stronger winds. Meanwhile, conditions should remain fairly benign through the this afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms will begin increasing tonight and through Sunday. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty wind will accompany any thunderstorm that may form.

BEACHES

Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for all Atlantic beaches until later tonight. Another round high risk is likely early next week with the passage of another frontal system.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 69 81 65 74 / 70 50 20 20 West Kendall 65 81 62 75 / 70 40 10 20 Opa-Locka 67 81 64 75 / 70 50 20 20 Homestead 67 81 64 75 / 70 50 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 68 80 66 73 / 70 50 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 68 80 66 72 / 70 50 20 20 Pembroke Pines 67 81 64 75 / 70 50 20 20 West Palm Beach 67 81 65 72 / 60 50 20 20 Boca Raton 68 81 66 74 / 70 50 30 20 Naples 67 79 59 75 / 50 40 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.