textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Dangerously cold temperatures and apparent temperatures are expected tonight into Sunday and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Members of the general public and agricultural interests are advised to prepare accordingly.

- Dangerous marine conditions will develop rapidly behind a strong cold front this afternoon. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest marine forecast over the next several days.

- Winds increase behind the cold front today with gusts to 40-45 mph possible from mid afternoon through early Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Bottom line up front: South FL will see historically cold temperatures and wind chills this weekend that haven't been experienced in many years!

First we need to get through today. We'll start the day off comparably mild with temperatures in the 40s/50s across the area. Scattered showers are expected along and ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to middle 60s.

The cold front associated with low pressure off the SE US coast will cross South FL this afternoon. As the low off the SE US coast deepens, a very tight pressure gradient will develop between that system and strong high pressure over the south-central US. West to NW winds behind the front will increase to 20-25 mph with gusts of 40-45 mph later today through early Sunday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of South FL from 2 PM today through 7 AM Sunday.

After the frontal boundary crosses this afternoon, very cold and dry air will filter into the region. A back-trajectory of this air mass expected can be traced back to Hudson Bay in Canada. By Sunday morning the 540 thickness line is projected to be just north of Lake Okeechobee. Latest model projections show the 850 mb temp falling to -5 to -10 C by early Sunday morning. So this will be by all indications an extreme cold event for our area. Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the mid to upper 20s around the lake region, to lower 30s across the rest of the area. By the air temperatures is only part of the story. With the blustery winds in place, feels like temperatures will be approaching levels rarely seen this far south in Florida. They will range from the mid to upper teens around the lake, to low/mid 20s over the rest of the area including across the metro. So with all that being said, there is a host of cold weather products that will be in effect from late tonight through 10 AM Sunday: An Extreme Cold Warning and Freeze Warning for Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach, with a hard freeze expected in Glades and Hendry. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory for inland Collier, Broward, and Miami-Dade. Finally, a Cold Weather Advisory for coastal Collier, Mainland Monroe, Coastal/metro Broward, and Coastal/metro Miami-Dade.

Despite mostly clear skies on Sunday, temps will be slow to rebound with the persistent NW flow continuing to pull cooler and drier air into the region. The pressure gradient will relax some, however winds will still remain breezy with afternoon gusts of 20-25 mph expected. Went on the lower end of guidance with temps, with afternoon highs only reaching the low to mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

The historic cold will continue into Monday with another morning of widespread sub freezing temperatures over inland South FL and near freezing temps across the metro. Another round of cold weather headlines should be expected. As high pressure moves over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday a slow warming trend will be experienced however remaining below normal. The next front will cross the area on Thursday. While not as strong, it will reinforce the cooler air which will keep temperatures below normal through the end of the week and into the beginning of next weekend.

Monday will be the coldest day of the extended with highs only reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs the rest of the week into early next weekend will be in the 60s/70s each day. Low temps on Tuesday will be around the freezing mark over inland SW FL, with lower 40s across the east coast metro. Lows mid week will be in the 40s/50s, and then drop into the 40s again by the end of the week, with some upper 30s possible west of the lake.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Light and variable winds early this morning. Strong cold front crosses the area this afternoon with WNW winds picking up to 20-25 kts with gusts of 30-35 kts. These breezy conditions will continue through the overnight into early Sunday morning. Some scattered showers are possible ahead and along the cold front today.

MARINE

Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Dangerous marine conditions begin today as a strong cold front moves through the area. WNW winds increase to 30-40 kts in the Atlantic and Gulf waters with gusts around 45 kts. Seas build to 10-15 ft. Gale Warnings are in effect beginning this morning and running until Sunday morning for Lake Okeechobee and Biscayne Bay and Sunday afternoon for the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Hazardous seas will continue for the Gulf waters through late Sunday night and for the Atlantic waters until at least early Tuesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Increasing onshore flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Gulf beaches this weekend. In addition, a high surf advisory is in effect for Collier beaches this afternoon through early Sunday afternoon for 5-8 ft waves in the surf zone.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

A very cold and dry airmass is expected Sunday into early next week. Critically low RH values are expected over much of South FL Sunday and Monday and over SW FL on Tuesday. Fire weather headlines may be needed on Sunday if winds remain elevated during the afternoon when the lowest RH values occur.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 64 34 53 36 / 50 0 0 0 West Kendall 66 33 54 32 / 50 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 66 34 53 34 / 50 0 0 0 Homestead 68 35 55 34 / 40 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 63 34 51 35 / 50 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 63 34 51 36 / 50 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 65 34 53 34 / 50 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 63 31 51 33 / 60 0 0 0 Boca Raton 64 32 52 34 / 60 0 0 0 Naples 64 37 53 36 / 70 20 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for FLZ063-066>068-168.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for FLZ063-066>068-070-071-073-168.

High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST this morning through Sunday evening for FLZ069.

High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ069.

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for FLZ069>075-172>174.

AM...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ610-630.

Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.