textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 656 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026 - Small relief from heat and storm coverage today.

- Elevated heat illness risk Sunday through early next week.

- Increasing rain chances early through mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

The late morning and afternoon weather pattern has been dominated by persisting cloud cover, with occasional periods of stratiform showers across areas of SoFlo mainly south of I-75. It seems daytime heating has been suppressed enough to limit significantly any deep convection that could have developed today. No strong indications on radar of sea breeze activity either, although the westerly sea breeze could be blending with the stratiform cloud decks on radar and satellite.

Latest short-term model guidance, especially high-res solutions, continue to run more aggressively than what has been observed so far. Therefore, afternoon grid package will continue to carry inherited NBM POps/Wx coverage, which so far looks more reasonable than most of the rest of guidance. Only adjustment will be to extend the scattered showers westward to better represent the swath of showers stretching from coastal Naples through Fort Lauderdale. Will also keep mention of a slight chance of thunderstorms through early this evening, especially right along the Broward/Miami-Dade metro coastlines, although the potential for deep convection continues to decrease as sunset approaches.

Mild temperatures expected to continue tonight with overnight lows in the mid-upper 70s (even a few 80s) near the coasts, and low 70s inland.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 228 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

The upper-level pattern this morning consists of an eastern CONUS trough, a low amplitude central CONUS ridge, and a closed low over the Southwest. The eastern CONUS trough can be separated into the stronger, stacked system over the Northeast and a weaker shortwave moving through the Southeast. This weaker component is part of a wave that was once over the Southern Plains and was stretched through the Gulf and broken into a northern and southern core. The residual ribbon of +PV that stretches through the Gulf is identified by the band of dry air on WV imagery, with a large area of moisture and cloudiness preceding it. This mid/upper level overrunning will spread across Florida today and act to limit afternoon destabilization. Modeled RH also depicts a pocket of slightly drier low-level air that may have been pinched off from the retreating low-level ridge that could also act to limit convective coverage this afternoon. However, as the Southeast shortwave moves into the Atlantic and sparks surface cyclogenesis, flow around the back of the developing surface low may pump enough moisture down the east coast late today to force out the aforementioned pocket of dry air. All this to say that convective coverage will be very low across south Florida today. Any storms that do develop will likely be late in the day, along the east coast, and probably north across Broward and Palm Beach counties where deep layer moisture may be more present.

On Sunday, mid/upper level moisture continues to advect across south Florida from the Gulf ahead of the southern portion of the aforementioned fragmented shortwave that exists over southern Mexico. As mid/upper flow becomes a bit more NWrly between the eastward shifting trough/ridge pattern, drier northern Gulf air will spread across the state and start to clear out some of the mid/upper cloud cover. With plenty of low-level moisture advection, and now the potential for destabilization, expect a little more coverage of storms along the Atlantic seabreeze that will be mostly pinned to the east coast. Additionally, further up the Peninsula, convection initiated along a frontal boundary could propagate into south Florida under the WNW steering flow by Sunday evening.

Highs will be a couple degrees cooler today with max temps in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, and heat indices closer to 100. On Sunday we'll warm into the low 90s again, with heat indices climbing into the low 100s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 228 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

The long term forecast challenge continues to be how the eastern CONUS trough will evolve as the early-week shortwave dives out of Canada into the Northeast. This will have implications on the resultant western Atlantic cyclogenesis and just how quickly and cleanly the earlier mentioned frontal boundary sags through Florida. Regardless of exactly how it plays out, it appears that storms will become more numerous across the eastern half of south Florida early next week, and then across all of south Florida by mid-week as the front reaches our area. We could see a little less convective coverage to end the week and into next weekend should the front be more progressive, but it's unlikely we'll be completely dry in either case. This also means warmer days on Monday and Tuesday with highs a few degrees cooler around mid-week with more convective coverage.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR prevails for the TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight will increase tomorrow afternoon out of the ESE for the east coast terminals and westerly for KAPF. VCTS after 18Z for east coast terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 228 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Gentle westerly winds will prevail (away from the seabreeze) for the next several days. Low seas will continue through the weekend, but a northerly swell from high pressure building into the western Atlantic may increase seas across the Gulf Stream early next week. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 91 76 91 / 10 70 20 70 West Kendall 75 92 75 92 / 10 70 20 70 Opa-Locka 77 92 77 93 / 10 70 30 70 Homestead 77 91 77 91 / 10 60 10 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 89 77 90 / 10 70 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 77 89 76 90 / 10 70 30 70 Pembroke Pines 78 93 78 93 / 10 70 30 70 West Palm Beach 77 89 76 90 / 20 70 40 60 Boca Raton 78 89 77 90 / 10 70 30 70 Naples 79 90 79 90 / 10 10 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.