textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026 - Unseasonable near record heat this afternoon could result in heat related illnesses if proper hydration or cooling is not followed.

- Gusty southerly winds will result in hazardous marine conditions across the northern Atlantic waters and dangerous fire weather behavior across northern inland areas of South Florida this afternoon.

- Showers and storms are possible beginning tonight with rain chances peaking during the afternoon hours of Sunday. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds will be the main hazards possible with any thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record heat is forecast for most of South Florida today, especially across the east coast metro. Prolonged exposure outdoors without adequate cooling, hydration, or attire could be dangerous. If you are planning on attending an outdoor event today, take the necessary precautions to remain safe.

Vulnerable populations may be especially vulnerable to heat as age and certain conditions impact the body's ability to regulate temperature. With near record heat and ample sunshine, temperatures will quickly soar in enclosed spaces without A/C. Never leave pets or children in parked cars unattended, always look before you lock!

Synopsis:

As a negatively tilted long-wave trough pushes eastward across the Great Lakes region today, the right entrance region of a stout jet- streak around the base of the trough will facilitate the development of an deepening area of low pressure offshore offshore of North/South Carolina. As this surface low accelerates northeastward in tandem with the lobe of mid-level vorticity, a cold front boundary will continue to accelerate southward across the Gulf and northern portions of Florida over the course of today, preceded by a pre-frontal trough of showers and storms. Further south, We will remain socked into the heart of the warm sector of the system with the forecasted development of a low level jet which will mix down gusty winds during the afternoon hours due to diurnal heating. Warm air advection will be amplified as a low level jet enhances out of the south to southwest. The combination of the moisture surge, breezy southerly to southwesterly flow, and a lack of cloud cover will set the stage for widespread low to mid 90s across the east coast metro areas and the mid to upper 90s across northern inland portions of the region. It's worth noting that the NBM 75th percentile which performs well in these type of flow regimes is still trending higher, with potential high temperature values in the upper 90s not out of the cards for western suburbs of the east coast metro.

Interestingly while the forecast high temperature values have continued to trend higher over the past 48 hours for this afternoon, forecast dewpoint values have trended lower which has resulted in lower afternoon maximum apparent temperatures across the region while also increasing the fire danger across the northern half of SoFlo. That being said, with near record heat values (see climate section below and key message discussion above) forecast for several hours this afternoon, prolonged outdoor exposure without hydration, cooling, or proper attire could prove to be dangerous.

After a scorcher of a day across the region, a few of the 00z and 06z mesoscale model suite depict the arrival of a decaying pre- frontal trough across southwestern Florida. Some of the CAMs (convection allowing models) depict a broken line of isolated shower activity while other solutions still depict an intact line of convection arriving across coastal Collier (higher instability values over the nearshore Gulf waters may sustain convection longer). If more robust convection is able to sustain on approach to the region, there is a non-zero threat of gusty winds (either outflow induced or embedded in any taller thunderstorm that is able to maintain along the pre-frontal trough boundary).

Deterministic and now mesoscale models are in relative agreement that the frontal boundary is forecast to arrive across the region during the early hours of Sunday. The earlier timing of arrival will occur in tandem with nocturnal inhibition over land which should preclude any robust shower or thunderstorm activity over night with it's passage. Interestingly enough (and what will be a common theme later on in this AFD), even though the frontal boundary will slide southward into the Florida Keys by the early afternoon hours, precipitable water values over South Florida and on the north side of the boundary will remain above the 90th percentile and close to the daily max for the date. Forecast model soundings on Sunday afternoon depict a saturated vertical profile with a skinny CAPE orientation. While any developing diurnal convection will be fast moving given brisk flow aloft, the saturated profile supports the potential of efficient rainfall rates if and where convection is able to materialize. Once again, CAMS remain split with a few model solutions depicting heavier thunderstorm activity mainly remaining offshore on Sunday while others show more of a signal of heavy rainfall along the immediate east coast.

The 00z HREF LPMM (Localized Probability Matched Mean) shows the potential of localized pockets of 2-3 inches across the region while the majority of locations will see 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall. While the overall heavy rainfall threat will remain low, the Weather Prediction Center continues to maintain a marginal (Level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for the eastern half of South Florida on Sunday. Cloud cover and rainfall on the north side of the boundary will result in a temperature gradient from north to south during the day. High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s near Lake Okeechobee, low to mid 80s across the majority of the rest of the region with the exception of a pocket of upper 80s near Florida Bay and Flamingo. This temperature forecast may change slightly depending on the exact timing of the front.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

A robust mid-level shortwave arrives across South Florida early on Monday morning providing an additional injection of synoptic energy in tandem with the continuation of an amplified southern stream jet- streak (enhanced upper level divergence) across the region. Although model guidance continues to depict South Florida on the cool side of the surface boundary, residual high precipitable water values (Above the 90th percentile and close to the daily max) on the northern side of the boundary and low level convergence could support the continuation of nocturnal convection across the Gulfstream waters with the potential of some back-building convection along the immediate east coast. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance as well as the long range mesoscale models now depict the development of a surface signal to the mid-level vorticity in the form of developing low pressure over the Gulf Stream waters that will quickly advect northeastward during the early morning hours of Monday. Cyclonic flow on the back side of the low pressure system will result in a wrapping in of drier air into the northern half of region and a precipitable water gradient from northwest to southeast by Monday afternoon. Scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible across most of the region on Monday as forecast precipitable water values remain between the daily mean and 75th percentile across southern locales. Meager instability and the post frontal airmass will keep any threat of more robust convection in check. The slight enhancement of a pressure gradient behind the departure of the surface low will enhance breezy northeasterly winds which will also result in a temperature gradient from northeast to southwest across the region. Temperatures will range from the low 80s across coastal Palm Beach County to temperatures in the upper 80s across coastal southwestern Florida.

With the frontal boundary effectively stationary to our south over the Caribbean Sea and Florida Straits on Tuesday, higher precipitable water values will remain with us even on the cool side of the boundary. This will once again support the development of a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours where ascent is maximized (mesoscale boundaries). An active synoptic pattern will continue as the amplification of a longwave trough over the northeastern Unite States will result in a continuation of the southern jet-stream in the vicinity of South Florida as 500mb flow begins to veer more northerly as the trough axis lifts out to the northeast and away from the southeastern United States.

A pattern change aloft is in the cards beginning late on Tuesday into Wednesday as a stout and anomalous mid-level ridge slides eastward across the Gulf. 500mb temperatures could approach the daily maximum for the date (May 7th) with values potentially above - 4C at 500mb. LREF GEFS Climatology has 500mb temperatures in the 97-99th percentile Tuesday night into Thursday. A ridge of this strength aloft will have a strong subsidence inversion which will suppress and limit rain chances outside of a few isolated sprinkles. If you are a fan of the heat (no pun intended), it'll be another scorching period with forecast high temperatures on Wednesday and Friday in the low to mid 90s across much of the region. Mesoscale sea-breezes will veer winds onshore along both coasts during the afternoon hours bringing some relief to coastal locales.

The mid-level ridge begins to flatten on Thursday as a long-wave trough transits across the central United States as a combined polar and southern jet-stream amplifies in intensity once again. 500mb temperatures are forecast to begin to cool as 500mb flow becomes more zonal across the region. A developing surface low ahead of the trough across the northeastern United States will provide enough synoptic influence to drag an attendant frontal boundary southward across the southeastern United States on Thursday and potentially into our region at the tail end of the work week into the upcoming weekend. As this is at the tail end of the extended period, more forecast clarity will come on the evolution of this pattern as we move forward in time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Gusty southerly winds will develop across the region between 13-15z before enhancing further during the afternoon hours. Frequent gusts of 20-25 knots will be possible at most terminals for much of the afternoon before winds lessen below 10 knots after sunset. Increasing SHRA may arrive across SWFL after 00z and increase in coverage through the end of the TAF period. MVFR cigs and an erratic wind shift could be realized at KAPF during this time period but confidence remains too low to include any lower cigs/vis at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Surface winds will begin to enhance out of a southerly direction during the mid to morning hours as a frontal boundary pushes southward across the northern Gulf and Florida Peninsula. This will result in the development of Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions across Lake Okeechobee & southern Atlantic waters as the day progresses with a window of Small Craft Advisory conditions across the northern Atlantic waters beginning late this morning and persisting into the evening. Consequently, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the northern Atlantic waters between 12pm to 8pm today as HREF ensemble guidance probabilities of 20 knots or greater sustained surface winds across these zones are in the high, 80-100% range.

Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 2 to 4 feet today before increasing to the 3 to 5 feet range on Sunday as surface winds veer northerly behind the frontal passage. Seas will remain in the 1 to 2 feet range across the Gulf waters today before increasing to 2 to 3 feet on Sunday. Winds will lessen across the region after sunset but weakening shower and thunderstorm activity may arrive across Lake Okeechobee and the local Gulf waters during this time period, which could result in locally elevated winds and waves. With rain chances remaining elevated Sunday into Monday, any shower or thunderstorm activity could also bring locally hazardous winds and waves. Continued northeasterly winds behind the frontal boundary on Monday could result in wave heights remaining slightly elevated in the Gulfstream before winds veer to more of an easterly component on Tuesday and wave heights gradually lessen.

BEACHES

Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Due to a lingering northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents will persist across the Palm Beaches County beaches today. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place at Miami Dade and Broward County beaches through this evening before the risk of rip currents decreases on Sunday. With onshore northeasterly winds developing during the early portion of the upcoming work week, an elevated risk of rip currents may once again return to the Palm Beach County beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Southerly winds will enhance and become breezy to gusty this afternoon out ahead of an approaching frontal boundary across the northern Florida Peninsula. Wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph combined with dry vegetation and borderline critical relative humidity values could support a threat of elevated fire behavior. HREF ensemble guidance depicts high probability of meeting wind thresholds for the Red Flag Advisory criteria with wind speed values at 90-100% chance of threshold exceedance. There is also a medium probability of 40-60% of dropping below the critical relative humidity threshold of 35%. The ongoing drought, dried out vegetation, and kinematics mentioned above support a threat for favorable fire spread. A Red Flag Warning will go into effect from 11am to 7pm today for Glades, Hendry, inland Palm Beach, and inland Broward counties. With the frontal boundary arriving and pushing across the region on Sunday, moisture return and precipitation will act to bring increased moisture back into the region.

CLIMATE

Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today's Forecasted High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 93 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 92 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 93

Today's 90th Percentile High Temperature Values: (1 in 10 Chance) Miami (KMIA): 95 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 93 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 95

Today's Record Maximum High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 93 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 93 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 94

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 93 75 84 72 / 0 20 90 70 West Kendall 94 71 86 69 / 0 20 90 70 Opa-Locka 94 74 85 71 / 0 20 90 70 Homestead 92 74 86 71 / 0 20 80 70 Fort Lauderdale 92 74 82 71 / 10 30 90 70 N Ft Lauderdale 92 74 81 71 / 10 30 90 70 Pembroke Pines 96 76 85 71 / 0 30 90 70 West Palm Beach 94 72 79 70 / 10 40 90 60 Boca Raton 93 74 80 71 / 10 30 90 70 Naples 88 72 83 68 / 0 60 70 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM... Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.