textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 137 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Flood watch remains in effect for the Lake Okeechobee Region as well as the eastern half of South Florida through Monday as the potential for additional heavy rainfall and flooding continues.

- Minor to Moderate coastal flooding expected during times of high tide.

- Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 137 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

A broad mid level disturbance will generally remain parked over South Florida as well as the Eastern Gulf heading into tonight and most of Monday. At the surface, the remnants of a stalled frontal boundary will continue to affect the region during this time frame. The latest 18z ACARS data features a long and skinny profile throughout the atmospheric column with PWAT values hovering close to 2 inches this afternoon. The pressure gradient remains also remains tight across South Florida as strong high pressure remains centered over the Mid Atlantic region. This is keeping a rather strong and gusty easterly wind flow in place across the area. The abundance of moisture combined with what is left of the weak frontal boundary as well as the mid level disturbance will continue to allow for rounds of additional showers and thunderstorms to develop tonight into Monday.

While some of the stronger thunderstorms will contain gusty winds, the bigger concern here will be the continued potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours will high rainfall rates. These rounds of heavy downpours will add to the potential for additional flooding concerns across the eastern half of the South Florida as well as the Lake Okeechobee region through tonight and into Monday. Some locations across the east coast metro areas as well as the Lake Okeechobee region have already seen 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with some isolated totals of 4 to 6 inches mainly in portions of Glades and Hendry Counties. An additional 1 to 3 inches will remain possible tonight into Monday across most of the region, with locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible where the stronger storms set up. The best chances of the higher end totals will be located across the east coast metro areas as well as the Lake Okeechobee region.

Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 60s west of Lake Okeechobee to the lower 70s across the coastal areas. With plenty of cloud cover and rainfall anticipated for Monday, high temperatures will remain below normal and will generally range from the upper 70s to lower 80s across most areas.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

A brief period of mid/upper level ridging is expected early to mid-week, with low-level easterly flow continuing around the surface ridge. This will likely keep us from completely drying out through early next week. However, by mid-week, a frontal system moving through the central CONUS is forecast to start pushing the low-level ridge northeastward. This will give us a more southerly component to the low-level winds and end the persistent shower activity. It'll still be humid, just not as wet. There is a ton of model divergence on how that central CONUS system evolves, but it seems like the majority of the solutions bring a pretty weak frontal boundary through Florida by the end of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to affect the region through the rest of this afternoon and into tonight. Periods of MVFR or IFR will remain possible during this time frame. Easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts will continue through the rest of this afternoon and into tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts will be common especially across the east coast terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 137 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters tonight and into the early portion of the week as a fresh to strong easterly breeze remains in place combined with a lingering northeasterly swell. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh easterly breeze will continue through Monday before gradually starting to diminish on Tuesday. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range between 6 to 9 feet through Monday while seas across the Gulf waters will remain between 2 to 4 feet. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across all local waters through the early portion of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

The onshore flow and elevated winds and seas will keep a High Risk for rip currents across Atlantic beaches well into this week. Large breakers are expected through at least today across Broward and Palm beaches, with a high surf advisory in effect for these locations. Higher than usual tides will also create elevated water levels near the coast. Dangerous beach and swim conditions are expected through mid-week.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 137 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Believe it or not we're nearing the ebb of the astronomical tides between the full and new moons. While we may briefly (and barely) drop below moderate flood levels on Monday, probabilities of at least reaching low-end moderate flood levels appear too high to let the Coastal Flood Advisory drop. Water levels are forecast to gradually start climbing again by mid-week as we draw closer and closer to the New Moon on Nov 9. Hopefully we'll be able to remove the strong onshore wind component and pull back some of the heavy rain potential as astronomical tide levels start to rise again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 73 81 75 84 / 80 80 60 60 West Kendall 74 82 75 85 / 80 70 60 60 Opa-Locka 73 82 74 85 / 80 80 60 60 Homestead 74 83 75 86 / 80 70 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 73 80 74 83 / 80 80 70 70 N Ft Lauderdale 73 81 75 84 / 80 80 70 70 Pembroke Pines 73 82 74 85 / 80 80 60 70 West Palm Beach 72 81 74 83 / 80 80 70 70 Boca Raton 73 81 75 83 / 80 80 70 70 Naples 70 82 71 85 / 60 50 20 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ063-066>068-071>074- 168-172>174.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.