textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon into early evening.

- Heavy rain may lead to poor drainage or urban flooding today.

- Max heat indices of 100-105 possible this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Latest analysis shows surface high pressure sliding off into the central Atlantic, and another weak high in the eastern Gulf. A fairly weak southeast flow is expected this weekend across South FL. Forecast soundings show PWAT valued of 2.0-2.2 inches both today and again on Sunday, with fairly deep moisture throughout the column. Convection will be primarily sea-breeze driven and while the highest PoPs today and Sunday will be over the interior, the weaker flow should bring more of the east coast metro into play for scattered thunderstorms. With the anticipated high rainfall rates, some localized urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible. Also can't rule out an isolated strong storm or two both days, with strong wind gusts the primary threat.

High temps today and Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The heat combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will result in afternoon heat indices maxing out in the 100-105 range. Low temps tonight will remain mild ranging from the lower 70s over inland areas to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Surface high pressure will build back into the western Atlantic early this upcoming week and remain anchored in the vicinity through at least mid week. An upper level low over the eastern Caribbean will meander around the region through at least mid week, with little impact expected locally. Towards the middle of the week, a frontal boundary will approach the southeast US as an upper level trough digs through the eastern US, however at this point the frontal boundary looks like it will struggle to make it any further south than northern FL before washing out later in the week.

Convection will continue to be primarily diurnally driven sea-breeze convection during the extended period. With a low level SSE flow early in the week, higher PoPs are expected across the east coast metro on Monday and Tuesday. As the flow becoming more easterly mid to late week, highest PoPs will transition to the interior and SW FL, with lower chances across the east coast metro.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal. Heat indices will max out at 100-105 each afternoon with some flirtation of advisory criteria each day through the end of the week. Timing of rainfall each day will be critical on whether or not advisory criteria will be reached.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Overall VFR conditions will prevail across TAF sites through the forecast period. Winds will be out of the south to southeast through the afternoon, which should help push any convection more inland or affect the southwest peninsula(including KAPF). Brief visibility/ceiling restrictions may accompany storms affecting any TAF site but these should be short-lived and may require some amendments. Storms should diminish by 00z-01z with conditions remaining VFR overnight with winds light and variable or out of the southwest around 5kts or less.

MARINE

Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Gentle southeasterly winds expected this weekend, with Gulf winds becoming westerly each afternoon. Seas generally 2 ft or less in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms possible each day weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 91 77 92 / 0 40 10 60 West Kendall 75 92 75 92 / 10 50 20 60 Opa-Locka 77 93 77 93 / 0 50 20 70 Homestead 77 91 77 91 / 0 30 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 78 91 78 91 / 0 40 20 70 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 77 91 / 0 40 20 70 Pembroke Pines 78 94 79 95 / 0 50 20 70 West Palm Beach 77 91 77 92 / 0 50 20 80 Boca Raton 79 91 78 91 / 0 40 20 70 Naples 77 89 78 90 / 30 30 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.