textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of South Florida.

- Heat remains the primary hazard through next week.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along the east coast as onshore flow increases.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Mid/upper ridging across the central and southern CONUS will continue amplifying over the next few days. This is in response to the amplification of the eastern US longwave and the eastward propagation of the Pacific longwave. At the surface, and across the Southeast, the low-level ridges in the Gulf and Atlantic will consolidate as the eastern US longwave shifts a bit further east. The net result will be increasing heights and prevailing ESE flow across south Florida. In addition, waves of SAL air will also bring anomalously warm low-level temperatures over the region.

Through next week, there's enough of a consensus in the global ensembles to say that the eastern CONUS trough will lift north while the Pacific longwave will deepen and remain stalled over the extreme western US for much of the period. This will have the effect of amplifying the western reach of the central CONUS ridge and shifting its axis a bit further west. At the surface, this will likely weaken the ridge and separate it once again into a Gulf ridge and a subtropical Atlantic ridge. It also looks as though the SAL will be sticking around with a prolonged period of hot and dry low-level air.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A narrow band of dry SAL air can be seen on satellite imagery this morning stretching from the Straits through the Bahamas. This will advect over south Florida during the day today. The rough timing of the dry air should limit convection this afternoon over the eastern half of south Florida, but there may still be enough moisture present across SWFL to initiate scattered seabreeze storms as the easterly flow converges on the Gulf breeze. In the aforementioned easterly low-level flow regime, a weak tropical wave will pass through south Florida and the Straits tonight into Saturday. The consensus regarding the timing of this feature would bring scattered light showers to the east coast in the early to mid morning hours, and then possibly a little more rain (and thunderstorm activity) to the west coast later in the afternoon. While widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated, it's not out of the question that a storm or two across SWFL could produce 2-4" on Saturday.

Temperatures and apparent temperatures will be the primary hazard to end the week and start the weekend. The building ridge and the combination of waves of SAL air will keep the combo of high heights and warm low-levels in place. Days where drier air mixes to the surface will feature higher actual temperatures than days where dewpoints will be higher, but either way, advisory level heat should be expected each day.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Heat, heat, and more heat. Even though the upper ridge will weaken/advect westward, the SAL will take a firmer hold of the region and stick around for much of the period. This will create a period of unseasonable high temperatures, lower than usual thunderstorm coverage, and advisory level heat indices. While the breakdown of the ridge pattern may allow for mid/upper level moisture intrusion, it'll still be battling the SAL. Thus, only a gradual increase in PoPs is expected through the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR will prevail through the TAF. Showers and storms are unlikely across the east coast, but APF has a low chance of a storm impacting the terminal later this afternoon. Prevailing ESE flow is expected, except at APF where flow becomes onshore in the afternoon with the seabreeze.

MARINE

Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Moderate easterly winds are expected today and Saturday as a tropical wave moves across the local waters. Daily wind increases to around 10-15 knots are expected in the seabreeze zone, as well as a light chop. Rain chances will be highest tonight over the Atlantic and late tomorrow over the Gulf with the passage of the tropical wave. Then dry conditions are expected to end the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 93 82 92 81 / 10 20 30 0 West Kendall 93 80 92 77 / 10 20 30 0 Opa-Locka 94 82 93 81 / 10 20 20 0 Homestead 92 81 92 80 / 10 30 30 0 Fort Lauderdale 92 82 91 81 / 10 30 30 0 N Ft Lauderdale 93 82 92 81 / 10 30 30 0 Pembroke Pines 93 81 92 80 / 10 30 20 0 West Palm Beach 93 80 92 79 / 30 30 30 0 Boca Raton 92 81 91 80 / 20 30 30 0 Naples 93 77 92 78 / 40 20 60 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.