textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Little to no rainfall today and tomorrow; scattered to numerous storms Friday and Saturday, and some could be strong.

- Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A general synoptic picture of the eastern CONUS consists of a shortwave/closed low over the MS/TN Valleys, a shortwave off the Northeast US coast that's embedded in the northern stream, a ridge over Florida, and a TUTT over the far southeastern Bahamas. At the surface, the shortwaves have their respective surface reflections as does the ridge. Satellite imagery depicts the initial wave of the SAL spreading over south Florida this morning. Over the next two days, low-level ridging will provide south Florida with steady SE flow and moisture advection under the hot and dry SAL. This setup will severely limit any shower or thunderstorm development and also allow for the mixing of anomalously warm temperatures to the surface. While some of the dry air may alleviate high dewpoints as it mixes to the surface, this is going to be most likely across the interior. At the coasts and near the Lake, near-surface moisture from the maritime influence should keep dewpoints rather high. Highs are forecast to climb into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the 105-110 range (possibly a little higher across SW FL). Heat will be, by far, the main sensible weather concern through the short-term and beyond. A heat advisory is in effect for most of south Florida today and will likely be needed again tomorrow. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The MS/TN Valley shortwave will drift east and elongate as it slowly phases in with the northern stream as a shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. At the same time the TUTT over the Bahamas will make gradual westward process and weaken a bit as it does so. Direct forcing for ascent from the TUTT appears as though it will remain south of south Florida. However, daily rounds of convection under the TUTT, that will eventually be responsible for its weakening, will advect NW across south Florida in the form of weak MCVs and moisture anomalies. This weak mid-level forcing and addition of moisture may help overcome the SAL and allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop across south Florida on Friday and Saturday. Just where and when the best rain chances will be remains highly dependent on convective development over the Bahamas and Cuba over the coming days, and is too hard to pinpoint at this time. We could also see a greater potential for severe downbursts in the strongest storms as the low/mid-level SAL increases the potential for evaporative cooling on the storm- scale. Where storms are not expected, it will remain hot and heat advisories may continue through late-week into the weekend. The finer details on just how widespread the heat will be should become more clear as the precipitation forecast gains more confidence. Drought-busting rain is not anticipated as widespread totals are forecast to remain under an inch for the two day period.

As the influence from the TUTT move away by the end of the weekend, the SAL becomes re-established across south Florida, with anomalously warm low/mid-level temperatures overspreading the region once again. Expect heat concerns to be more widespread once again, and potentially more severe than earlier in the week. The shower and thunderstorm forecast is tricky as there will likely be convection further north in Florida, associated with forcing from the fractured southern half of the elongated shortwave mentioned above and associated surface trough. While steering flow appears to be mostly westerly, it could be that any robust convection propagates into the warm and unstable south Florida region in the evenings. In general though, rain chances will be lower than typical for this time of year.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR through the 18Z TAF period. SE winds around 10 kts with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Light and variable winds overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Winds and seas will increase a bit through the remainder of the week as the western edge of high pressure spreads across the SW Atlantic and SE Gulf. Showers and storms are unlikely both today and tomorrow, but rain chances will increase Friday into Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 94 82 93 / 0 0 10 20 West Kendall 78 94 80 93 / 0 0 10 20 Opa-Locka 81 95 82 94 / 0 0 10 20 Homestead 81 93 81 93 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 82 93 83 92 / 0 0 0 20 N Ft Lauderdale 82 92 82 92 / 0 0 0 30 Pembroke Pines 82 96 83 95 / 0 0 0 20 West Palm Beach 80 93 81 92 / 0 0 0 30 Boca Raton 82 92 82 91 / 0 0 0 30 Naples 78 96 79 95 / 20 10 10 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>070-072- 074-075-168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.