textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 658 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening through the weekend. The main hazards from these storms will be gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the weekend for much of the area. This will mean that those who do not have hydration or adequate cooling will be affected.

- Drier air associated with the Saharan Air Layer will slowly move into the area during the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

High pressure continues across South Florida through the foreseeable future. This will result in a more or less persistent pattern for the short term. Abundant moisture will remain in place with precipitable water values around two inches, this coupled with weak southeast flow, will bring daily shower and thunderstorm risk to the region. These storms will favor the interior and western areas of South Florida for the most part, with only low end chances for the east coast. Like previous days, any outflow boundaries could result in additional storm develop along with isolated strong to severe storms bringing mainly gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours to the area.

Heat will also be the main story, similar to what we have seen. Highs will reach into the low 90s. With the abundant moisture around, this will bring heat indices of around 101-107 degrees along the east coast to 103-107 along the western coast Friday. At this time, it doesn't look like a Heat Advisory will be needed, but will continue to monitor this. HeatRisk will also be in the moderate to major category again on Friday so those spending any time outdoors should exercise caution and use adequate cooling measures.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

At the risk of sounding a little like a broken record, the overall weather pattern will remain persistent even through the long term. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue to prevail through the week.

An overall light to moderate flow will occur at the surface. Sea breezes, along with general daytime heating, should dominate each early afternoon and become the main focus for convection. Once these occur, outflow boundaries will drive any additional convection during the later afternoon and early evening hours. The highest rain chances during this time period should occur more in the interior to west coast, with the east coast being more isolated in nature. Late in the period, this may shift a little more toward the east coast with higher POPs currently suggested during that time. We also may have some implications from the Saharan Air Layer affecting the region, but it is unclear as to how much this will affect the region as we should be more on the fringe of this intrusion.

As for heat...this will continue through the long term as well and be a big concern each day. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will remain the main concern each day. Heat indices look to inch up into the advisory range for at least the west coast of Florida but may also be needed for the east coast as well through much of the weekend into early next week. May need to consider how convection will play into this or if we hit the heat before storms begin.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Evening showers and storms will continued to only affect western TAF locations but are also diminishing through the evening. Additional storms look to develop, mainly in the west again Friday afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be light and out of a south to southeasterly direction.

MARINE

Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

High pressure will prevail across the coastal waters during the next several days. Light to moderate SSE winds should continue over the Atlantic marine zones, while a more SSW flow is expected each afternoon period across the Gulf waters with sea breezes. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may form over coastal areas, with a few cells drifting offshore in the late afternoon/early evening hours. Any thunderstorm may produce locally strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 92 80 91 / 20 30 30 40 West Kendall 77 93 78 92 / 10 40 30 50 Opa-Locka 80 93 80 93 / 20 30 30 40 Homestead 80 92 80 92 / 10 40 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 81 91 / 20 30 30 40 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 20 30 30 40 Pembroke Pines 81 94 81 94 / 20 30 30 40 West Palm Beach 79 91 80 91 / 20 30 20 40 Boca Raton 80 90 81 90 / 20 30 30 40 Naples 77 93 77 93 / 20 50 30 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.