textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop today with the highest chances remaining over the interior and Southwest Florida. - Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most areas this afternoon resulting in a widespread moderate HeatRisk across the metro areas.

- Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the week will introduce a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The closed mid-level low stalled over the Southern Appalachians is expected to open into a trough and start lifting northeastward through the period. At the same time, the Bermuda high over the mid- Atlantic will build westward into the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to push westward over the Florida Peninsula. This synoptic setup will continue to channel deep tropical moisture into the region, with the 00Z MFL sounding and model guidance showing PWATs around 2 inches, remaining above the 90th percentile for early August.

Diurnal and sea-breeze interactions will remain the primary driver for convective initiation each day. With a tightening pressure gradient around the expanding surface high, easterly wind flow will gradually increase through the period. This will allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to push further inland each afternoon while pinning the Gulf sea breeze near the West Coast. With ample moisture available, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, focused over the interior and western portions of South Florida.

High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s along the immediate East Coast, reaching the lower 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows will remain in the mid-to-upper 70s across coastal and metro areas, and the lower 70s over the interior. Peak heat index values this afternoon and Thursday afternoon could range between 105 and 110, however, they are not anticipated to remain at these peak values for an extended period of time. In addition, most of the metro areas will see widespread moderate HeatRisk values today and Thursday, which could affect sensitive individuals without adequate cooling or hydration.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

For the end of the week, the main feature of focus will be the approach of a mid level and surface inverted trough that will be moving towards the region from the western Atlantic. This feature will allow for the pressure gradient to remain tight over South Florida on Friday resulting in a breezy east to southeasterly wind flow to remain in place. Uncertainty does rise for this part of the forecast as the latest global and ensemble guidance suite remains in disagreement in regards to how it handles the intensity and mid level energy associated with this inverted trough. The ECMWF guidance suite shows the bulk of the mid level energy associated with this disturbance curving offshore before reaching the Florida coastline, however, the GFS guidance suite pushes most of the mid level energy over the region during this time frame. The recurved/more offshore solution would keep the higher moisture surge offshore and it would feature more of a typical summertime pattern with showers and storms that are more sea breeze driven. With the extra mid to upper level support pushing over the Florida Peninsula, this would help to enhance shower and thunderstorm coverage during this time frame. Given the uncertainty, the latest forecast does continue to favor elevated shower and thunderstorm chances on Friday, however, it keeps the highest chances over the interior as well as Southwest Florida due to the stronger easterly wind flow. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Friday will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s with peak heat index values ranging between 103 and 108.

During the upcoming weekend, this inverted trough will quickly push off to the north of the region on Friday night and rather strong mid level ridging will begin to extend southwestward again from the western Atlantic across South Florida on Saturday and Sunday. Surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will also extend southwestward back towards the region and into the eastern Gulf during this time frame. This will result in a return to convective initiation being sea breeze driven and with east to southeasterly wind flow staying in place, the highest chances of showers and storms will remain over the interior and Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. Due to mid level ridging building back into the area, this will allow for high temperatures to return to the lower 90s across most areas with peak heat index values generally ranging between 105 and 110 each day during this time frame.

Heading into the early portion of next week, the latest global and ensemble guidance continues to hint at strong mid level ridging over the western Atlantic continuing to nudge closer to South Florida heading into Monday. However, there is also a signal of another mid level inverted trough that may try to push towards the region heading into Tuesday. Uncertainty in this part of the forecast is on the higher end due to guidance discrepancies in the exact location and strength of this feature. This part of the forecast may also be complicated by the potential arrival of a Saharan Dust layer that will be approaching the region as well from the southeast. For now, the latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and features sea breeze initiated convection each day with the highest chances remaining over the interior and Southwest Florida. High temperatures during the early portion of the week have the potential to rise above climatological normals due to the stronger ridging in place and the potential Saharan Dust pushing into the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Mainly VFR conditions should prevail through the period, however, some showers may develop near the east coast terminals early this morning. This could result in brief periods of MVFR in and around the shower activity. Winds will pick up out of the east- southeast for all eastern sites during the afternoon, while a Gulf breeze shift winds west at KAPF. Scattered storms this afternoon will favor interior and southwest Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Light to gentle winds across most of the local waters will gradually build out of the east today into Thursday, becoming moderate across most local waters through late week. Occasional fresh breezes are possible over the Atlantic waters during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less today, however, seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually increase and could range between 3 to 4 feet heading into Thursday and Friday.

BEACHES

Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Easterly winds will gradually increase through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. This will allow for the rip current risk to become high during this timeframe across the Atlantic Coast beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 80 90 80 / 60 40 60 50 West Kendall 90 76 91 77 / 50 40 60 40 Opa-Locka 91 79 91 79 / 60 40 60 50 Homestead 90 79 90 79 / 50 40 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 89 80 / 60 40 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 89 80 90 80 / 60 40 60 60 Pembroke Pines 90 80 90 80 / 60 40 60 60 West Palm Beach 90 79 90 79 / 70 40 60 60 Boca Raton 89 79 89 79 / 70 40 60 60 Naples 91 76 92 76 / 80 20 70 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.