textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 107 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Minor coastal flooding expected during times of high tide.

- Elevated risk of rip currents today for the Palm Beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 1240 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Latest RRFS run continues to show the possibility of a few showers later this afternoon into early this evening over Mainland Monroe and the Everglades, so painted some slight chance PoPs over there for a few hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains largely on track.

Did extend the Coastal Flood Statement for the Atlantic coast through early Friday evening for minor flooding around the high tide cycles. Additional coastal flood headlines will eventually be needed for the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 313 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

A much different weather scenario is now developing across SoFlo with mid-lvl drier air now filtering into the region. A large trough/low system is migrating eastward across the SE CONUS, and will keep the best associated dynamic support well to the north of SoFlo today and Friday. CAPE/instability parameters seem to get highly suppressed across the region as strong sfc high pressure builds in the wake of a frontal passage. Ensembles and NBM Wx/POPs coverage drops into the 10 percent range for each afternoon, with mainly warm and mostly sunny conditions prevailing. This is a much welcomed change from previous days, which will help those communities still struggling with flooded roads and lingering water.

Pressure gradients have also relaxed across the area, with winds becoming generally light and variable through the morning hours, then ENE in the 5-10kt range this afternoon.

Increased daytime heating and decreased cloud cover will result in afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s each day.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Latest long range model solutions remain in fair agreement about reinforcing high pressure and drier conditions prevailing across the region during the weekend in the wake of a dry FROPA. Forecast POPs/Wx coverage remain around single-digits each day through Sunday. Then for early next week, models depict a potential mid-lvl trough moving across the area and bringing increasing chances of showers for the late Monday-Tuesday timeframe. But even so, max POPs seem to remain in the 20-30% range.

The latest trend in guidance is also to bring a more pronounced temperature gradient as overall northerly flow develops in the wake of the FROPA. Afternoon highs should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s by early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals. L/V winds will become NE 5-10 kts after 15-16Z for the east coast terminals. An afternoon westerly Gulf breeze will develop at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Marine conditions will continue to gradually improve across the Atlantic waters as winds subside, and a more gentle NE flow develops. A few marine showers may develop today, but weather conditions should remain generally dry over the marine zones. Significantly drier conditions will prevail through the upcoming weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

As onshore flow weakens, the Risk for Rip Currents across the Palm Beach waters will decrease to moderate today. Higher than usual tides will also continue to keep elevated water levels near the coast today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 85 72 86 73 / 0 0 10 20 West Kendall 86 72 87 73 / 0 0 10 10 Opa-Locka 86 72 87 73 / 0 0 10 20 Homestead 86 72 86 73 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 84 72 84 72 / 0 0 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 86 72 87 72 / 0 0 10 20 West Palm Beach 84 71 85 71 / 10 0 10 10 Boca Raton 84 72 84 73 / 10 0 10 10 Naples 84 71 83 69 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.