textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 639 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 expected each day into next week. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- While isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible through the evening, the chances for more widespread storms have decreased.

- Another plume of Saharan dust will move into the area through early next week, leading to lower rain chances but continued very hot conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This afternoon, high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to dominate the large scale pattern in the low levels. Mid- afternoon satellite imagery continues to show fairly widespread mid-level cloud cover streaming across much of South Florida. Additionally, the 1200 UTC upper air sounding from this morning showed quite a bit of subsidence behind last night's convection. The cloud cover over much of the region has had two main effects on today's weather: (1) it has kept heat index values slightly lower today compared to previous days and (2) it will help suppress the potential for convective thunderstorm development, at least to some extent, as we head into the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. While some thunderstorms remain a possibility through the evening, the chances for more widespread thunderstorms similar to those that were experienced last night appear to be lower. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be favored over areas that have seen the most breaks in clouds and over inland locations, with lower chances along the east coast. Latest CAMs agree with this assessment, with much of the hi-res guidance backing off of thunderstorm coverage this evening.

The other main weather concern in the short term is heat index values. While cloud cover has kept heat index values from reaching their full potential at some locations this afternoon, dangerous heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees have still been observed over portions of the area, particularly in locations that have seen brief breaks in the clouds. A heat advisory remains in effect for all of South Florida through this evening, though heat index values will remain a concern each day for the next several days. Remember to take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities, and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 70s for inland locations, but will struggle to dip below 80 along the east coast. On Sunday, as a TUTT near the region progresses towards the west, drier air will move into the area, leading to a drop in precipitable water back to the 1.5-1.6 inch range. This should work to limit convective coverage for Sunday afternoon. Diurnal showers and storms are probable across interior areas, however chances remain below average at 20-30%.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

High pressure at the surface is poised to remain draped across the western Atlantic, maintaining southeasterly flow into the first half of next week. Additionally, the NASA/GMAO forecast shows additional Saharan dust moving into the region already as of this afternoon. The southeasterly flow that will continue for the next several days will continue to advect the Saharan dust across the area, leading to below-average moisture. Meanwhile, the aforementioned TUTT will weaken and continue to advect westward away from the region. PWATs will range from the 1.3-1.5 inch range through much of the work-week which should limit the convective potential outside of a few diurnal showers and storms across interior and southwest Florida during the late afternoon and early evening. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40% through Thursday peaking each day between 2-7PM. Hot conditions are expected to continue through the period, especially for locations that don't receive relief from afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid-upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Additional heat advisories will be likely through the remainder of the weekend and into the upcoming work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Shower and storm chances will decrease over the next few hours, though a pop up shower or thunderstorm still cannot completely be ruled out for the rest of this evening. With that said, VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail. Moderate to light SE winds will shift to become more easterly during the overnight hours. On Sunday, afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will again be possible, but the overall trend for the rest of the weekend into early next week will be drier than previous days.

MARINE

Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible through early this evening, which could lead to erratic winds and waves at times in areas where any thunderstorms develop. Otherwise, wave heights will remain at 3 feet of less across local Gulf and Atlantic waters with moderate southeasterly winds. Drier conditions expected on Sunday through much of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 94 81 95 / 10 10 10 20 West Kendall 78 95 77 96 / 10 10 0 20 Opa-Locka 80 96 80 96 / 10 10 10 20 Homestead 80 93 80 94 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 81 93 81 94 / 10 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 81 93 81 94 / 10 10 10 20 Pembroke Pines 82 96 81 97 / 10 10 10 20 West Palm Beach 79 94 79 95 / 10 20 10 20 Boca Raton 81 92 81 93 / 10 20 10 10 Naples 78 95 79 94 / 10 20 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.