textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 151 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region today and Thursday as a frontal boundary remains stalled out just to the north. - High rainfall rates combined with the possibility of multiple rounds of heavy downpours could increase the potential of localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas.

- Minor coastal flooding will be possible across the coastal areas during each high tide cycle during the second half of the week and into the upcoming weekend due to the next round of King Tides.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A broad mid level trough extending into the Southeast portion of the country and into the northern Gulf today will gradually begin to slide into the western Atlantic tonight into Thursday. This trough will continue to keep mid level ridging to the east of the region in the Atlantic today, however, the western periphery of this ridge will slowly start to build towards South Florida tonight into Thursday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled out just to the north of the region throughout today and into a good portion of Thursday. At the same time, Tropical Depression Nine will continue to get better organized in the Southwestern Gulf as it slowly move east northeastward today into Thursday.

The stalled out frontal boundary to the north will allow for deep layer moisture to pool over South Florida throughout today as a south to southwesterly wind flow sets up across the region during this time frame. This will allow for PWAT values to range from around 2.1 inches across the extreme southern portion of the region to 2.4 inches across the Lake Okeechobee region and Palm Beach County which will be closer to the front. With an abundance of moisture in place, showers and thunderstorms will gradually develop across the region today and they become more widespread heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Since the best dynamics and instability will be located further up to the northeast, chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain on the lower end, however, they cannot be entirely ruled out especially across the Lake Okeechobee region. The primary hazard that will be more concerning with convection today will be heavy downpours with high rainfall rates, as well as the potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours moving over already saturated areas. With the enhanced rainfall rates, it would not be out of the question that stronger thunderstorms could drop a quick and localized 2-3 inches of rain over a short period of time this afternoon and this evening. This type of rainfall could create the potential for localized flooding, especially across the Lake Okeechobee region and east coast metro areas with the steering flow remaining light out of the south southwest.

Similar conditions are anticipated on Thursday across the region as the weakening frontal boundary remains stalled out over Central Florida for a good portion of the day which will keep the south to southwesterly wind flow in place. This will also keep the east coast sea breeze pinned over the metro areas along with ample deep layer moisture in place through most of the day for higher end chances of showers and thunderstorms. The combination of slow storm motion along with high rainfall rates will allow for localized flooding to remain possible especially across the Lake Okeechobee region as well as the east coast metro areas on Thursday. High temperatures will generally remain in the upper 80s to around 90 across most of the region for both today and Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Heading into Friday and the upcoming weekend, mid level ridging over the western Atlantic will gradually strengthen as it pushes westward and continues to build over South Florida. At the surface, what is currently Tropical Depression Nine will continue to strengthen as it turns and moves northward towards the northern Gulf Coast Friday into Saturday. While this system will remain far off to the northwest and will not have any direct impacts on South Florida, it will help to lift the frontal boundary that has been stalled out over South Florida northward beginning on Friday. Winds will then shift and become southeasterly on Friday, however, they will gradually increase heading into Friday night and Saturday as the pressure gradient quickly tightens across the region.

The uncertainty in the forecast rises a bit heading into Friday and Saturday as the frontal boundary gets lifted off to the north of the region. Even though this front gets lifted northward, the enhanced south southeasterly wind flow both at the surface and aloft could help to drag in some deep layer tropical moisture over the region from the Carribean Sea. This may keep the chances of showers and thunderstorms elevated across the region on Friday and Saturday. While the general motion of showers and thunderstorms will increase during this time frame, the potential for high rainfall rates will continue keeping the chances for localized flooding in place as well. The timing this moisture increase also plays a role into the uncertainty as some of the guidance is a bit slower in bringing this area of moisture northward on Friday. If this slower scenario were to play out, Friday may end up being more of a typical late rainy season type day with higher chances of showers and storms being focused over the interior and Southwest Florida instead of the entire area. In any event, the main takeaway here is that even though the frontal boundary will be dragged further to the north, the wet and unsettled pattern may last into the first part of the weekend due to the increase in deep layer tropical moisture trying to push over the region. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

Heading into the second half of the weekend and into early next week, the guidance remains in relatively good agreement with showing strong mid level ridging expanding over the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf during this time frame. This will allow for drier conditions to push into the area which will result in a return to more of a typical late wet season type pattern across the region as winds begin to decrease and become east southeasterly. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will still remain in place, however, they will become more scattered in nature and they will favor the interior and Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures during the second half of the weekend and into the early next week could be above climatological normals due to the strengthening mid level ridge building into the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 151 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Afternoon/evening convection across all terminals will likely bring erratic winds and brief MVFR/IFR or lower flight restrictions. Outside of showers and t-storms, winds will primarily be SSW for all east coast terminals. For APF, a Gulf breeze will continue to bring showers and t-storms ashore throughout the afternoon into the evening. Overnight, scattered showers are expected near all terminals before diminishing around 06Z for eastern terminals. Winds are forecast to return to light and variable overnight before returning to a SSW flow late Thursday morning as a similar afternoon shower/storm pattern sets up tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A gentle to moderate south southwesterly breeze will remain in place across most of the local waters through Thursday. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame, while seas across the Atlantic waters will build and range between 3 to 5 feet today and Thursday as a northeasterly swell develops. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across all local waters each day as a frontal boundary remains stalled out to the north of the region.

BEACHES

Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will develop across the Palm Beaches today and this risk could potentially become high on Thursday as a northeasterly swell continues to develop. Minor coastal flooding will be possible across the coastal areas during each high tide cycle heading towards the second half of the week and into the upcoming weekend. This is due to the next round of King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 89 78 89 / 40 70 20 30 West Kendall 76 89 77 89 / 30 60 10 30 Opa-Locka 76 89 77 89 / 40 70 20 30 Homestead 76 89 77 90 / 30 40 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 76 88 77 88 / 40 70 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 76 88 77 89 / 50 70 30 40 Pembroke Pines 76 89 77 89 / 40 70 20 30 West Palm Beach 74 88 75 89 / 60 80 40 50 Boca Raton 75 88 76 88 / 50 80 30 40 Naples 75 87 75 89 / 60 60 40 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.