textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 647 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026 - Marine and beach conditions will quickly deteoriate tonight and early Sunday. Dangerous surf and rip currents will materialize along the entirety of the east coast of South Florida on Sunday. - Wind gusts near 30 mph are expected over much of South Florida on Sunday, with peak gusts to 35 mph near the Atlantic coast.

- Showers will increase late tonight and Sunday, along with a few thunderstorms. Possible repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may result in pockets of localized urban flooding over metro SE Florida overnight and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

This Afternoon through Sunday: The main weather story this weekend is increasing rain chances and wind, especially late tonight and Sunday, as a cold front over North Florida early this afternoon moves south and lies across South Florida on Sunday.

For the rest of this afternoon, adequate surface heating and resultant instability from temperatures in the 80s will combine with slowly increasing moisture (PWATs around 1.4-1.5 inches) to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms focused from the western suburbs of SE Florida west across Lake Okeechobee to the Gulf coast. The prevailing N-NE low/mid level wind flow should keep the bulk of the precipitation away from metro SE Florida, with the exception of the Palm Beaches. Weak mid-level lapse rates and lack of notable forcing and wind shear will limit the intensity and coverage of thunderstorms.

The cold front is expected to make steady southward progress tonight and reach Palm Beach County during the pre-dawn on Sunday. Ahead of the front, showers will slowly increase in coverage, with most of the precipitation expected to accompany the front early Sunday morning. The PoP forecast shows a steady increase from 20-30% this evening to 40-60% over Palm Beach and Broward counties by sunrise Sunday, with some of the showers spreading westward across Lake Okeechobee into the interior and western portions of the southern Florida peninsula.

The higher PoPs will continue to spread south and west on Sunday as the front slowly moves through the area and PWATs increase to 1.5- 1.7 inches, ranging from 60-70% from Palm Beach County westward across Lake Okeechobee and Glades County, to 20-40% over southern Miami-Dade County. Continued lack of significant forcing, weak mid- level lapse rates, and gradually diminishing baroclinicity associated with the front will again limit the intensity and coverage of thunderstorms, with thunder chances staying mainly in the 30-40% range.

As far as QPF/rain amounts are concerned, there's a fairly large spread in the QPF guidance starting late tonight, with ensemble/probabilistic 24-hour rainfall through 8 PM Sunday ranging from less than a tenth of an inch in a reasonable low-end scenario, to close to 2 inches in a reasonable high-end scenario. The official/most likely QPF leans a bit on the higher end of the distribution, ranging from 0.5-1 inch over metro SE Florida to 0.1- 0.25 inches along the Gulf coast. This appears reasonable based on a conducive synoptic pattern (slow-moving front and moisture convergence from strong low-level onshore wind) for locally heavy rainfall/higher rain amounts. The primary limited factors for widespread high rainfall amounts are: lingering mid/upper-level dry air and the lack of mid/upper level dynamics/forcing. Nevertheless, NBM 24-hour 90% percentile QPF (reasonable high-end) through 8 PM Sunday shows 1.5-2 inches over much of the SE Florida metro/coastal corridor, with high-resolution LPMM solutions indicating the possibility of localized amounts upwards of 3 inches. Therefore, localized flooding is a possibility where and if these higher amounts materialize, and we will continue to monitor the flooding potential for Sunday as additional data comes in and confidence increases.

As mentioned at the top, wind speeds will increase across the region late tonight and become strong and gusty on Sunday especially near the Atlantic coast. Leaned closer to the NBM 75th percentile for wind/wind gusts on Sunday in the 25-30 mph range, with 90th percentile values roughly representing peak gusts near 35 mph. While these values are below Wind Advisory levels, this will be closely watched in future forecast updates.

High temperatures in the 80s today will be about 5-10 degrees lower on Sunday due to slight cold air advection north of the front and increasing cloudiness/precipitation.

Sunday Night and Monday:

The cold front is expected to continue making slow southward progress through the southern tip of the peninsula, with enough lingering moisture to keep PoPs in the 40-60% range. Rain chances will remain fairly consistent over east coast areas Sunday night and Monday, but exhibit a diurnal trend over interior and western areas with highest rain and thunder chances Monday afternoon/evening.

Wind is expected to stay elevated on Monday, but not quite as windy as Sunday. Temperatures will be a touch higher on Monday compared to Sunday, highs ranging from near 80 along the Atlantic coast to the mid 80s over SW Florida.

Remainder of Next Week:

Mid/upper level high pressure is forecast by a consensus of global models and ensembles to move over and east of Florida, providing a more stable environment and helping to push the frontal boundary south of the region. Low level winds will shift to more of a SE direction, which will keep moisture levels high enough for a few showers each day mainly over east coast metro areas (PoPs generally 20%), but nowhere near as widespread as what is expected Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures will remain near or perhaps slightly above seasonal values, with lows in the 60s to lower 70s and highs ranging from the lower 80s Atlantic coast to the mid/upper 80s interior and Gulf coast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

SHRA with isolated TSRA along SW Florida coast near KAPF will linger through about 03z, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through 06z. SHRA and a few TSRA increase mainly in the PBI area generally after 06z, followed by the FLL-MIA corridor after 12z. PROB30 with MVFR ceilings and visibility is reflected in the forecast after 06z for PBI, and after 12z for the MIA-FLL area terminals as well as KAPF. NE-E wind generally 10-12 knots increase after 06z-12z to 15-20 knots with gusts around 25 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The cold front moving into the region late tonight will lead to deteriorating marine conditions over the Atlantic waters. NE-E winds increase to around 25 knots and dangerous seas of 10+ feet are expected Sunday through Monday. Over the Gulf waters off SW Florida, winds will be in the 15-20 knots range with seas up to 5 ft. Wind and seas should gradually subside beginning on Tuesday, but remain elevated enough to maintain the hazardous conditions for small craft. Small Craft Advisories will likely be maintained for most of the forecast period.

BEACHES

Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Strong and dangerous rip currents will be present on Sunday at the Atlantic beaches, and continue most of next week. In addition, rough surf conditions will spread from the coast of Palm Beach County southward into at least the Broward County coast. The High Surf Advisory for the Palm Beach County coast may need to be expanded southward to Broward County in future forecast updates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 70 80 71 79 / 30 50 40 60 West Kendall 66 82 67 82 / 20 40 40 50 Opa-Locka 69 81 70 82 / 30 50 40 60 Homestead 70 81 70 81 / 20 30 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 70 78 70 78 / 40 60 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 70 77 70 78 / 50 60 50 60 Pembroke Pines 70 82 71 82 / 40 50 50 60 West Palm Beach 69 76 69 78 / 60 70 50 60 Boca Raton 69 77 69 79 / 60 70 60 60 Naples 68 82 67 84 / 30 50 10 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ651-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for GMZ656-676.