textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Moisture gradually returns to the region today, with the potential of a few showers south of Alligator Alley this afternoon.

- Afternoon apparent temperatures will increase from the upper 90s today to 100-105F during the afternoon hours of Thursday and Friday. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Another spectacular edition of fake fall is nearing a untimely conclusion across South Florida this morning as 07z mesoanalysis and GOES East water vapor imagery reveal that moisture is slowly retrograding back into the region as deep-layer ridging remains established to the north of our area. With an elongated mid-level ridge draped across much of the southeastern United States, the synoptic pattern across our region will remain rather benign. As a surface ridge axis gradually slides eastward across the southeastern United States and into the western Atlantic waters today, surface wind flow will begin to veer to more of an easterly direction as a frontolytic boundary over the Florida Keys and an envelope of residual atmospheric moisture retrogrades back into the region. Today still appears to be, very much so a transition day between the current dry airmass in place across South Florida this morning and more substantial moisture advection later in the week. Breezy east-northeasterly flow and increasing moisture will support the potential of afternoon shower activity south of Alligator Alley today, where the best instability and moisture will reside. Activity will remain vertically capped in nature as moisture advection remains confined the the lowest level of the boundary layer with a copious amount of dry air. The latest forecast continues to depict 20-40% rain chances across the southern half of the region this afternoon. Forecast high temperatures range from the upper 80s along the east coast to values in the low 90s across southwestern Florida.

Mid-level ridging briefly established across the southeastern United States is forecast to propagate eastward on Thursday as the next lobe of troughing slides eastward across the central United States. For now at least, our weather regime here in South Florida will be primarily influenced by the surface ridge still situated over the western Atlantic waters. Surface winds will gradually veer to an easterly direction by Thursday afternoon as the axis of surface ridging across the southeastern United States pivots further eastward and wanes in strength. Consequently, the established pressure gradient will begin to subside with surface winds remaining light out of an easterly direction. This will focus the best afternoon and evening rain chances across the western half of the peninsula on Thursday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible, although weak lapse rates and warm 500mb temperatures should keep the threat of strong convection to a minimum. High temperatures on Thursday will remain similar to today (upper 80s to low 90s, peak values forecast, however the increase in moisture will result in a return of apparent temperatures back into the 100-105F degree range during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

As the positively tilted trough amplifies and digs across the eastern half of the United States, a strengthening surface low will strengthen and push east-northeastward in tandem. A sprawling frontal boundary attached to the low is forecast to push across the southeastern United States on Friday before arriving across the region during the upcoming weekend. As surface ridging slides further to the east, winds across South Florida will begin to veer to a southeasterly component. This will usher in even deeper atmospheric and continue the trend of 1) higher rain chances and 2) higher apparent temperatures. Friday could very well be the warmest day of the week with feels-like temperatures once again reaching the 100-105F range across South Florida. The breakdown of stronger background flow across the region will result in sea-breeze circulations being the driving mechanism of where afternoon convection focuses, which may reside mainly across inland areas and Lake Okeechobee as both sea-breezes converge inland.

The placement of the aforementioned frontal boundary in relation to South Florida, surface high pressure axis to the north, and any mesoscale coastal convergence will have a direct influence on potential rainfall totals, wind gusts, and the severity of any marine/coastal impacts across the region during the upcoming weekend into next week. Forecasted precipitable water and low level RH values (via forecast soundings) during this time period appear to approach the daily max for this time of year, indicative of an airmass that is saturated in the low level boundary layer. 500mb temperatures are also forecast to be on the warmer side which may support an expansive warm cloud layer and heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of the east coast of South Florida in a Day 4 and Day 5 Marginal risk of excessive rainfall (Level 1 of 4). In this type of complex weather regime, it is far too early to discuss specific rainfall totals as anchoring bias to specific values could hurt messaging more than help it. The main takeaway is that forecast confidence is increasing that heavy rainfall could occur across portions of South Florida this weekend into early next week. Outside of any heavy rain threat, guidance has also been consistent in showing the enhancement of a pressure gradient across the western Atlantic and South Florida. This would act to increase wind speeds across the area, resulting in gusty conditions and potential marine and coastal impacts. While forecast confidence has increased in a wet and windy weekend, uncertainty as far as timing and impacts remain. Stay tuned for forecast updates as we progress through the remainder of the work week. An increase in wind and rain chances may keep ambient and apparent temperatures lower beginning during the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Breezy easterly flow continues today, with gusts up to 20 knots possible through the evening. VFR conditions should prevail, however, periods of MVFR/IFR could be likely across the East Coast through 20Z-21Z as storms move over the area. Easterly winds 5-10 knots will continue overnight, with a return of SHRA/TSRA and breezy conditions again tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Breezy northeasterly winds will prevail across the local waters of South Florida through tonight. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions could be realized at times across the Atlantic and Gulf waters as winds enhance and lessen with nocturnal/diurnal cycles. Waves will remain 2-3 feet across the region through early Thursday with the caveat that locally higher waves and winds are possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity, mainly across our southern waters. While uncertainty remains, forecast confidence continues to increase for the potential of elevated seas and waves across the local waters of South Florida this weekend into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 89 79 90 / 40 30 20 40 West Kendall 77 90 78 90 / 30 30 10 40 Opa-Locka 78 90 78 90 / 40 40 20 40 Homestead 78 90 78 90 / 40 30 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 78 88 79 89 / 50 50 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 78 89 79 89 / 50 50 20 50 Pembroke Pines 78 90 78 90 / 40 40 20 40 West Palm Beach 77 89 78 89 / 30 50 20 60 Boca Raton 78 88 78 89 / 40 50 20 50 Naples 74 90 75 89 / 0 60 10 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.