textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 113 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- An active weather pattern remains in place through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each day. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and frequent lightning. - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow moving storms will continue to create the potential for localized flooding especially over the urban and poor drainage areas. - High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Rather strong mid level ridging will remain centered over the Carolinas as well as the Tennessee River Valley for today and Friday. At the same time, a mid level shortwave will slowly push northwestward from the Atlantic into Central and Northern Florida today and tonight. A secondary mid level shortwave will also gradually pull a bit further away from the region and head towards the central Gulf today. At the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will gradually expand westward over the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf. The surface ridge axis will remain to our north heading into tonight and Friday. While a light southerly synoptic wind flow will remain in place today, the expansion of this surface high will shift the surface wind flow to more of light southeasterly flow heading into tonight and Friday across most areas.

While plenty of moisture will still remain in place for most of Thursday, the latest guidance suite still shows some signs of relatively drier air trying to work into the mid levels of the atmospheric column from the south later in the day. While PWAT values will still remain elevated through most of today, there will be a bit of a drop heading into tonight and Friday as values could range between 1.7 and 2.0 inches by Friday morning. These values will then slowly increase again as Friday progresses and will range between 1.9 and 2.2 inches by late Friday afternoon. This amount of moisture will still be supportive of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing each day as the sea breezes push inland and interact with each other. The chances of stronger thunderstorm development will be rather limited but it cannot be entirely ruled out. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours this afternoon. With elevated PWATs remaining in place through most of today, high rainfall rates with the stronger storms could lead to the potential of localized flooding over the urban and low lying areas.

The highest chances of showers and storms will gradually move up towards the Lake Okeechobee region later this afternoon and into the early evening hours before gradually diminishing moving into the overnight. Heading into Friday, convective initiation may start a little bit later than what it has in previous days due to the mid level dry air intrusion that could take place heading into Friday morning. Once shower and thunderstorm development starts to take place along the sea breezes on Friday, it will gradually push towards the interior as the afternoon progresses. Once again, strong thunderstorm chances will remain rather limited, however, with the presence of some mid level dry air, the stronger thunderstorms could contain gusty winds especially where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundary collisions take place. High temperatures for today and Friday will generally remain in the lower 90s across most of the region. Peak heat index values will generally range between 100 and 105 across most of South Florida.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Moving into the upcoming weekend, the mid level ridge that has been centered over the Carolinas and Tennessee River Valley will gradually flatten and retrograde westward as a potent mid level trough dives southeastward through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic before shifting into the Southeast and western Atlantic. While the mid level trough axis will generally remain to the north of the region, this will help to keep South Florida situated in an area of weakness between two mid level ridges, one to the northwest over the Plains, and one to the southeast well into the Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will gradually flatten and shift southward as a weakening frontal boundary stalls over the Gulf Coast states as well as Northern Florida through the weekend. While the synoptic wind flow will generally shift and become light out of the south southwest ahead of the frontal boundary during the second half of the weekend, sea breezes will be the dominate factor in wind direction heading into each afternoon. Plenty of moisture will remain in place which will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop each day during the upcoming weekend. While strong thunderstorm chances will remain rather limited, an isolated strong storm or two will remain possible especially where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide each afternoon. High temperatures over the weekend will generally rise into the lower 90s each day across most of South Florida. Peak heat index values will generally range between 103 and 108 each afternoon.

The latest global and ensemble guidance suite shows this pattern sticking around heading into the early portion of next week as the mid level trough to the north shifts further into the Atlantic. The trough axis will remain close enough to keep South Florida in an area of weakness between two mid level ridges. This will help to keep the steering flow rather light and surface winds will generally remain sea breeze driven during this time frame. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each day with the highest chances occurring in the afternoon when sea breeze and other mesoscale boundary collisions take place. High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s each afternoon early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 113 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Onshore SErly flow along the east coast and prevailing SWrly flow at KAPF will focus the bulk of afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA across interior southeastern Florida. Erratic wind shifts are possible at inland terminals via outflow boundaries from nearby convection. L/V winds are forecast once again overnight with the increasing SHRA along both coasts before daybreak.

MARINE

Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A gentle to moderate southeasterly breeze will remain in place across the Atlantic waters through the rest of the week and into the first part of the weekend. Across the Gulf waters, a gentle south to southwesterly breeze will continue through the rest of the week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the end of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each day through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Gusty and erratic winds, along with brief periods of rough seas, will be possible in and around thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 90 81 90 / 40 60 30 70 West Kendall 79 89 77 89 / 40 60 30 70 Opa-Locka 81 90 79 90 / 40 60 30 70 Homestead 79 90 80 90 / 40 60 50 70 Fort Lauderdale 81 89 80 89 / 50 60 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 50 60 30 70 Pembroke Pines 79 90 79 90 / 50 60 30 70 West Palm Beach 78 91 78 91 / 40 50 20 80 Boca Raton 79 89 79 89 / 50 60 30 70 Naples 78 91 77 90 / 30 60 30 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.