textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 647 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. Frequent lighting, heavy downpours, and isolated wind gusts to 45 mph are the primary threats.

- Heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding this afternoon, especially urban and poor drainage areas.

- Heat Advisory for metro Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. Peak heat index values will range between 105 and 110 F. Wear light-weight, light color clothing and stay hydrated.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The Independence Day holiday weekend will likely have many flashes and booms... from lightning and thunder that is. Similar to the last few days, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast across most of South Florida, with highest chances of precipitation once again favoring interior portions of the region. This evening's 00Z MFL soundings is not as moist and unstable as yesterday's, but quick showers and isolated thunderstorms are once again expected to pop up across the Atlantic and Gulf waters through the early morning hours. Showers will be slow and moving onshore from southeast to northwest. One notable change in the overall weather pattern compared to the last few days is that the main mid-level ridge axis will shift south over the peninsula. Surface high pressure also looks to have a better foothold over central Florida, which will lead to more light and variable winds inland and some subsidence aloft. This will induce a more onshore southerly flow across much of the region. The Atlantic sea breeze will shift winds more southeasterly along the eastern metro areas, while the Gulf breeze will shift winds more west to southwesterly in Collier and mainland Monroe. Overall, this pattern will continue to advect deep moisture into the region, with PWATs once again looking to climb into the 2.1 to 2.3 inch range, within the 90th percentile for this time of year. Storm activity will focus along sea-breeze and outflow boundary collisions through the afternoon. Steep low level lapse rates, plenty of instability, and slow storm motions should once again support locally heavy downpours.

Southerly flow will help advect some warmer and more moist air into the region, which has resulted in some higher apparent temperatures forecast for the afternoon. As a result, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach metro areas. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s across most of the region, but heat indices in some areas may climb up to 110 F. Overall, widespread Moderate HeatRisk with isolated pockets of Major HeatRisk are expected, increasing the risk of heat illness for anyone without proper hydration and cooling.

Pretty much a rinse and repeat situation sets up for Sunday across South Florida, with high pressure ridging staying strong across the region. Perhaps a slightly drier atmosphere is in store, with some models showing PWATs dropping below 2 inches. Convection will once again focus along the sea breeze, with highest chances favoring interior South Florida. However, there are some differences among guidance with what the overall wind regime will be on Sunday. Some solutions are depicting a more south to southwesterly flow, while other solutions keep southeasterly winds across the area. This could be a determining factor as to whether more storms will affect the eastern metro areas or southwest Florida. Regardless of where storms set up, another hot day with high temperatures in the 90s is forecast across the region.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

With the pattern over the eastern United States shifting from a deep- layered area of high pressure to a successive troughs, a window for more unsettled weather could open. As the weekend concludes and the new work week begins, the surface ridge axis will slide south through the peninsula and could reach as far south as the Florida Straits or Greater Antilles given some of the latest solutions. Aloft the mid-level ridge axis may not make it quite as far south.

Afternoon and evening showers and storms will continue to be in the forecast given the diurnal sea breeze pattern. Available moisture could lead to healthy convective coverage but the overall synoptic wind pattern will be a key determinant to which sea breeze regime will prevail each day. Late evening, overnight, and early morning convection over the local waters will transition ashore late in the morning into the early afternoon with the sea breeze gaining traction as the convective focus.

If a southeasterly wind pattern continues with the ridge axis remaining over or just north of the area, then the pattern favoring inland and Gulf coast convection late afternoon into the early evening could continue. If the ridge axis advances further south, then a southwesterly wind flow pattern could pin the Atlantic sea breeze closer to the coast which could lead to a more delayed start to convection with a focus for storms over the east coast metro. Things appear to remain quite warm but the wind flow pattern will be a key to see which coastal metro area could potentially see the warmer temperatures develop with lower to mid 90s becoming prevalent in the long term forecast across a good portion of South Florida.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Light and variable winds this morning becoming SE around 10 kts this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Light shower activity will continue through the early morning hours across both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. High pressure ridging will build over the coastal waters over the next several days, which will keep winds favoring a south to southeasterly direction. During the afternoon hours, winds will become more onshore within the sea breeze zone, which will shift directions more westerly over the Gulf and more easterly over the Atlantic. Inland thunderstorm activity may spill out into the waters during the late afternoon and evening hours before isolated to scattered shower activity once again pops up overnight. Winds may shift more southerly heading into Sunday and possibly even southwesterly. Overall, wave heights will be around 2 to 3 feet through the period. Chances for storms looks to trend down heading into the beginning of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 79 91 79 / 70 20 70 10 West Kendall 92 76 92 76 / 70 20 80 10 Opa-Locka 93 78 92 79 / 70 30 80 10 Homestead 92 79 91 79 / 50 20 60 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 91 80 / 60 20 70 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 79 90 79 / 70 20 60 10 Pembroke Pines 94 80 93 81 / 70 20 80 10 West Palm Beach 91 78 91 78 / 70 20 70 10 Boca Raton 91 79 90 79 / 60 20 60 10 Naples 91 78 91 79 / 50 50 40 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.