textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 721 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM this evening with possible heat index values of 106-110F, mainly for coastal metro areas and interior Collier county. Max temps today will hit the low- mid 90s.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with best chances around the Lake region.

- Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic offshore waters this afternoon. High Risk of Rip Currents today for all beaches of Collier county.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The synoptic pattern for the short term will be dominated by increasing mid-lvl ridging over the area, while broad sfc high pressure remains anchored over the Gulf region. Meanwhile, sfc obs and model analyses describe a semi-stationary frontal boundary stretching across the SE CONUS, with a strong moisture gradient between the front and the ridging over the area. Most of the deeper moisture remains clustered over the northern half of the Florida peninsula, while SoFlo continues to receive the influx of drier air, enhanced by additional SAL dust. Pressure gradients will also increase today and bring some gusty periods in the 20-25mph range this afternoon.

Per latest ensembles and high-res solutions, Thursday seem to be the driest day of the short term. For today, chances of rain will be highest around the Lake region, since it will be closer to the aforementioned pool of moisture to the north. POPs/Wx coverage of 40- 50% are in place for the northern-most counties, while a much drier profile will prevail for the rest of SoFlo; generally in the 10-30% range. Decreasing forecast parameters like PWATs, possibly down to 1.5-1.6", and DCAPE below 700 J/KG, will combine with stronger mid- lvl capping due to the increasing SAL intrusion in order to establish a significant suppression of daytime storm development potential. However, even with less thunderstorm activity, the persisting weak steering flow will again keep potential for localized flooding, mainly with slow-moving storms.

With less cloud cover and shower activity, temperatures this afternoon will hit the low-mid 90s across much of SoFlo, and heat index values potentially reaching the 106-110F range. Confidence is increasing about experiencing durations of those values, therefore, a Heat Advisory will be issued, mainly for the coastal metro areas. Morning lows will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s near the coasts and low to mid 70s inland.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Long range models continue to adjust their solutions as we approach the weekend period. And while some additional adjustments are likely, it seems the consensus is trending towards a surge of moisture and a return to a more active weather pattern.

An upper-lvl trough will deepen over the E/SE CONUS, with a series of short-wave impulses traveling along its base. These features will push some of the deeper moisture southward and into the area, mainly between Saturday and Monday, and promote increasing instability and shower/thunderstorm activity. This will also limit the SAL capping, which will remain mainly confined to the southern-most areas of SoFlo starting on Saturday. Latest NBM follows the rest of guidance with a surge in POPs into the 60-70% range north of I-75, and 30-50% elsewhere on Saturday, and with increasing support for strong afternoon storms. A similar weather pattern should continue through early next week, although the location of highest POPs may change depending on how the low-lvl flow adjusts.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 721 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Generally VFR and L/V conditions through 15Z, then some VCSH/VCTS may develop this afternoon. Best chances for category impacts will reside over KDJT and KFXE. Westerly to southwesterly winds will prevail after 15z with gusts in the 20-25kt range at times.

MARINE

Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Moderate west-southwest winds continue during the next several days, with possible periods of advisory-level winds over the Atlantic offshore waters today. An SCA will be in effect for those waters starting early this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft, but a surge to 4-5 ft is possible over the Atlantic offshore waters today as winds become gusty.

BEACHES

Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A high risk of rip currents is in effect today for all beaches of Collier county until this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 93 79 94 79 / 20 0 20 0 West Kendall 93 75 94 75 / 20 0 20 0 Opa-Locka 95 79 95 79 / 20 0 20 0 Homestead 93 78 93 78 / 20 0 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 93 79 93 79 / 20 0 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 93 79 94 79 / 20 0 20 0 Pembroke Pines 94 79 95 79 / 20 0 20 0 West Palm Beach 94 77 94 77 / 40 0 30 0 Boca Raton 93 78 94 78 / 30 0 30 0 Naples 91 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068>070-072-074-168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ670-671.

GM...None.