textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026 - Gradual warming trend continues into next week.

- Low rain chances on Sunday with frontal passage.

- Brief period of hazardous winds possible for offshore Palm Beach waters through this morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1229 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

The mid-level shortwave trough and associated weakening cold front continues to approach the area early this morning and is expected to stall out on the northern end of the South Florida region near or just north of the Lake Okeechobee area. Wind flow ahead of the front will be out of the southwest this morning, which will provide a modest moisture increase in the low levels of the local atmosphere (PWATs 1.2-1.4"). However, abundantly dry air will remain present above the 700mb layer and there also will be some drier air mixed into the lower levels of the atmosphere as well. Combine this with the frontal boundary being in a weakening state and the result is expected to be only some very weak isolated shower development due to a lack of forcing and instability. Isolated showers through the morning and possibly into the early afternoon are expected mainly for Southwest Florida where PoPs are around 20%.

As the front washes out in the second half of Sunday and the shortwave departs, mid-level and upper-level ridging quickly rebuilds and low level flow (surface to ~925mb level) simultaneously shifts back to an easterly direction by the evening hours. As this occurs, some shallow shower development is possible via coastal convergence across the east coast metro areas Sunday evening into Sunday night. Most hours could still be dry, but overall can't rule out some isolated activity with minimal rainfall in the evening and overnight hours. Monday looks to be similar with high pressure dominating the forecast area and low chances for a few coastal showers, but overall most of the day should see dry conditions to begin the work week. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s across the region both today and again on Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1229 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

High pressure and a mid-to-upper level ridge will continue to amplify through the middle of this coming week. Flow will shift back to an easterly direction as this pattern develops and may result in a few coastal showers developing each day, but in general mostly calm and dry conditions will prevail through at least mid-week. This is likely to be the case for the late week time frame and possibly into next weekend as well as long term guidance suggests little to no weakening of the strengthening ridge. Long term ensemble guidance, which includes global ensembles and artificial intelligence ensembles (AIGEFS/AIFS) both suggest the ridge breaking down perhaps late next weekend and into the following week with the next potential frontal boundary approach. However, this is too far out to have any decent level of confidence at this time. Therefore, expect mostly dry and quiet weather conditions for the entire extended period outside of a few coastal showers at times.

High temperatures each day through the long term period are expected to increase slightly each day, eventually reaching the mid 80s for interior and Southwest Florida by the middle to end of the week. Highs overall for the entire region will be in the low to mid 80s each day with overnight lows for most areas falling to the upper 50s to low 60s each night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Periods of sub-VFR conditions could materialize early this morning as a line of showers moves across the area, and patchy fog develops behind the line. Highest confidence of chances for vis/cig reductions are for KAPF. Winds will gradually veer from the NW to NNE throughout the day.

MARINE

Issued at 1229 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Winds will shift today to the northwest and increase to moderate speeds mainly for the Atlantic waters on Sunday as a frontal boundary approaches. These winds may become slightly hazardous for portions of the Atlantic waters this morning through the afternoon. Heading into the early week period, winds decrease and shift to an easterly direction. Seas of 2-4 feet are expected in the Atlantic today and early this week. Gulf seas generally remain 2 feet or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 64 78 66 / 20 20 0 10 West Kendall 80 58 80 60 / 20 20 0 0 Opa-Locka 80 63 80 64 / 20 20 10 10 Homestead 81 62 79 63 / 20 20 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 64 78 66 / 20 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 78 65 78 66 / 20 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 79 62 80 64 / 20 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 78 64 79 65 / 10 20 0 10 Boca Raton 79 64 80 66 / 20 10 10 10 Naples 79 60 80 61 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.