textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 723 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Heat indices as high as 105-110 degrees expected each day through the end of the weekend.

- Smoke from wildfire activity in central Miami-Dade county will continue to disperse across much of the region. Lower air quality from wildfire smoke can be hazardous to sensitive populations.

- Drier conditions for many areas today, but a wetter period will return through the weekend. Numerous to widespread rain and thunderstorm chances are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The upper level pattern today will continue to be dominated by high pressure out in the Atlantic We will feel the effects of it most today as it briefly moves westward. This shows in the PoP forecast, with only isolated showers and storms expected today for interior areas away from the coasts. Any isolated storms that do develop will likely be driven by the seabreeze boundary as it moves inland through the afternoon. Similar to yesterday, given the weak layer of Saharan Dust causing middle level dryness an isolated strong storm or two with gusty winds is possible.

Into Friday, as the remnants of Arthur eject eastward a shortwave kicks across the state. This brings PoPs back up into the scattered range by the afternoon ~45-55% inland and ~20% closer to the coasts. More convection will be associated with the sea breeze and any remnant outflow boundaries. The strongest storms may bring gusty winds and localized areas of flooding.

In terms of the heat, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7PM today with Heat Indices ranging from 105-110F. Additionally, Heat Risk is major (level 3 out of 4) across much of the metro area. Many of the same conditions are expected tomorrow giving the likelihood of a Heat Advisory being issued during the next forecast cycle for tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The long term period looks to start off fairly active with broad troughing dominating the upper levels for the majority of the east coast. Additional shortwave disturbances move through on Saturday and Sunday. This brings PoPs up into the 70-80% range for a good portioned of the area in the afternoons both Saturday and Sunday. The sea breeze and any outflow boundary collisions will drive additional convection. Through the middle of the long term period, we will see a decrease in rain and storm chances once again as a thicker Saharan Air Layer moves into the region. PoPs fall back into the 30-40% range during this timeframe. Most convection will be more focused on inland areas as the sea breeze moves in during the afternoon hours each day.

The heat won't be going anywhere in the long term period. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the low to mid 90s each day with overnight lows in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast. Heat Risk continues to show major (level 3 out of 4) most days along with Heat Indices into the 105-110F range each day. Any showers and storms that develop may bring brief relief from the heat at times.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Light and variable winds forecast overnight with VFR conditions at most terminals outside of vis restrictions near the ongoing wildfire activity in western Miami Dade. Winds will enhance and veer onshore along both the east (SErly) and gulf (SW/Wrly) by 16-19z with the potential of inland SHRA/TSRA developing across inland areas 19-23z. Confidence remains low on SHRA/TSRA activity making it back to most terminals but guidance hints at potential erratic wind shift at terminals associated with outflow boundaries. Future TAF forecasts will refine the wind forecast at the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Gentle to moderate winds across the local waters will continue southeasterly for the Atlantic today and southerly for the Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the local waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas possible with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Winds will continue to shift more southeasterly across Southeast Florida this afternoon but remain south to southwesterly across Southwest Florida. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late afternoon and evening with a focus for inland locations across the interior, including Alligator Alley and Big Cypress. Dispersions will be generally good today and again tomorrow. RH values will remain well above critical values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 30 60 West Kendall 79 94 77 93 / 10 30 20 60 Opa-Locka 80 95 79 94 / 0 30 30 60 Homestead 80 93 79 92 / 10 20 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 81 93 80 92 / 0 20 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 81 92 79 91 / 0 30 40 60 Pembroke Pines 82 97 80 95 / 0 30 30 60 West Palm Beach 80 92 79 92 / 10 30 40 70 Boca Raton 81 92 79 91 / 0 30 30 60 Naples 80 92 79 91 / 0 10 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.