textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 608 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 - Fog is forecast to develop once again late tonight into Thursday, primarily across SW Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region. Some of this fog could become locally dense.

- Daytime temperatures will remain above average for the remainder of the work week but below any record values.

UPDATE

Issued at 125 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

The 18z MFL RAOB, ACARS data from area airports, and GOES-E derived soundings depict an atmosphere that continues to be dominated by deep-layer ridging with a continued subsidence inversion within the 600-780mb layer. A layer of slightly higher moisture exists just underneath of the inversion and again at roughly 3,000 feet which will once again support the potential of some capped cumulus across the region this afternoon. The convergence of the Atlantic and Gulf diurnally driven sea-breezes will result in the potential of isolated shower activity across the inland of the southern half of the peninsula this afternoon.

With the axis of surface ridging over the eastern Gulf and the decoupling of the boundary layer overnight, conditions could prove to be conducive for dense fog once again tonight. HREF probabilities of visibilities below half a mile remain 50-70% (medium range) across coastal southwestern Florida late tonight through daybreak on Thursday. While HREF visibility probabilities and the actual materialization of dense fog may not line up perfectly, it hints that there certainly is the potential for patches (perhaps even areas) of dense fog across the western half of South Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1208 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Large scale ridging remains spread over most of the south-central and southeastern U.S., which will maintain a quiet weather pattern and predominantly dry conditions in place. Temperatures for today and tomorrow are expected to reach the low to mid 80s.

With this rinse and repeat pattern in place, fog development becomes the focus again in the short term period. Interior and Southwest Florida will continue to be the focus area for fog development as radiational cooling looks to be maximized in those areas. Can't rule out some pockets of dense fog forming closer to the east coast metro though either. The latest HREF guidance gives a 50-70% chance for interior and Southwest Florida to see fog development that results in visibilities falling to a half mile or less between 2-9 AM and about 20-30% for the western edges of the east coast metro. Therefore, Dense Fog Advisories may become necessary again, which will be monitored closely. Otherwise, expect a calm and pleasant couple of days in this mid-to-late week period.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1208 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

The stagnant weather pattern will persist through the rest of the week and into this weekend as the ridging pattern continues to amplify over the Eastern Seaboard and the western Atlantic waters, which is preventing troughs and frontal boundaries from pushing southwards and into the South Florida region. As a result, quiet weather will be ongoing at least through Saturday and perhaps most of Sunday. Long range ensemble guidance (EPS/GEFS and AI ensembles) continues to hint at the next frontal boundary approaching the region in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The GEFS suite of members seems to be the most progressive, although 50% or more of its members don't have the front crossing into the South Florida region until Sunday night or Monday morning. Other ensembles don't have nearly as many of their members pushing the front through until early Monday or Monday afternoon, so as of now a solution with the front arriving Monday morning is in the forecast.

Regardless of how quickly this frontal boundary approaches, it does appear to be another predominantly dry one as it weakens in its approach. Current 90th percentile QPF for this time frame (Sun- Mon) is only up to 0.25", so no impactful weather is expected through the forecast period. High temperatures each day through the weekend will reach the low to mid 80s. Once the front arrives, temperatures will drop back into the 70s for a couple days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Light and variable winds are expected at all terminals overnight with the potential of BR/FG between 06z-15z across inland portions of the area. Greatest chance of seeing sub-MVFR cigs will be at KAPF as greatest probabilities of lower vis is present in the vicinity of the terminal. After daybreak, BR/FG dissipates with winds veering onshore along both coasts by the late morning (east coast) to mid afternoon hours (KAPF).

MARINE

Issued at 1208 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Light to gentle winds continue across the local waters through mid- week and likely into the late week period as high pressure presides over the area. Seas are expected mostly at 2 feet or less across all local waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 67 80 70 80 / 10 10 10 0 West Kendall 61 82 65 81 / 10 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 65 82 68 81 / 10 10 10 0 Homestead 65 82 68 81 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 65 80 69 79 / 10 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 65 80 70 79 / 10 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 65 81 67 81 / 10 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 64 81 68 81 / 10 10 10 0 Boca Raton 65 81 69 81 / 10 10 10 0 Naples 60 82 65 82 / 0 10 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.