textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Minor coastal flooding expected during times of high tide.

- Hazardous beach conditions are expected across the Palm Beach coast today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 313 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

A much different weather scenario is now developing across SoFlo with mid-lvl drier air now filtering into the region. A large trough/low system is migrating eastward across the SE CONUS, and will keep the best associated dynamic support well to the north of SoFlo today and Friday. CAPE/instability parameters seem to get highly suppressed across the region as strong sfc high pressure builds in the wake of a frontal passage. Ensembles and NBM Wx/POPs coverage drops into the 10 percent range for each afternoon, with mainly warm and mostly sunny conditions prevailing. This is a much welcomed change from previous days, which will help those communities still struggling with flooded roads and lingering water.

Pressure gradients have also relaxed across the area, with winds becoming generally light and variable through the morning hours, then ENE in the 5-10kt range this afternoon.

Increased daytime heating and decreased cloud cover will result in afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s each day.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Latest long range model solutions remain in fair agreement about reinforcing high pressure and drier conditions prevailing across the region during the weekend in the wake of a dry FROPA. Forecast POPs/Wx coverage remain around single-digits each day through Sunday. Then for early next week, models depict a potential mid-lvl trough moving across the area and bringing increasing chances of showers for the late Monday-Tuesday timeframe. But even so, max POPs seem to remain in the 20-30% range.

The latest trend in guidance is also to bring a more pronounced temperature gradient as overall northerly flow develops in the wake of the FROPA. Afternoon highs should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s by early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected today. Light NE winds through the early evening with a brief NNW wind expected at APF. Light and variable winds overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Marine conditions will continue to gradually improve across the Atlantic waters as winds subside, and a more gentle NE flow develops. A few marine showers may develop today, but weather conditions should remain generally dry over the marine zones. Significantly drier conditions will prevail through the upcoming weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

As onshore flow weakens, the Risk for Rip Currents across the Palm Beach waters will decrease to moderate today. Higher than usual tides will also continue to keep elevated water levels near the coast today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 85 73 86 / 0 10 0 0 West Kendall 73 86 72 86 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 73 86 72 86 / 0 10 0 0 Homestead 73 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 74 84 72 84 / 0 20 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 73 84 72 84 / 0 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 73 86 72 86 / 0 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 73 84 71 84 / 0 10 0 0 Boca Raton 74 84 72 84 / 0 10 0 0 Naples 71 84 71 84 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.