textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Above average temperatures return today and will continue through the weekend. Probabilities of heat- related impacts across urban areas during this time frame continue to increase.

- There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all SE Florida beaches.

- Next chance for rain arrives this weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the region.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1229 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

With a lack of significant synoptic forcing, benign and mostly sunny conditions should prevail through the short term period. Sea breezes should dominate the local surface wind flow with east-southeast winds prevailing across the east coast each afternoon and west- southwest winds across Southwest Florida. Upper level ridging slides eastward across the Gulf which should provide enough subsidence to prevent significant convective development and kick off the beginning of another warming trend.

Highs today and Thursday should reach the upper 80s along the coasts to the low (maybe even mid) 90s for interior locations with heat index values topping out in the mid 90s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1229 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

The aforementioned 500mb ridge persists across South Florida to open the long term period and the most noticeable impact will be felt on afternoon high temperatures. Highs across the region are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s with the exception of ocean cooled coastal areas which will max out in the mid to upper 80s. While the mixing down of drier air to the surface will keep apparent temperature and ambient temperature differences lower in separation compared to our standard summer heat, apparent temperatures values in the upper 90s to low 100s are still possible. NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk depicts a 50-70% probability of Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4) on Friday across the east coast metro and increasing to 70-80% on Saturday, Sunday and Monday with some pockets of extreme HeatRisk along the east coast cannot be ruled out. While these probabilistic values may fluctuate as we remain several days out in time, major to extreme HeatRisk can be impactful to anyone without adequate cooling/hydration. Be sure to keep up with the latest forecast updates over the next several days.

Aside from the heat, an upper level trough will propagate eastward across the Great Lakes region at the end of the work-week as a developing surface low drags its attendant boundary towards the Florida peninsula. This feature will likely remain just north of our forecast area but could still lead to a slight increase in POPs for Saturday and Sunday as a plume of moisture makes its way northward across the area. At this time, POPs remain around 20-30% Saturday and Sunday and a slight increase to 40-50% on Monday on Tuesday as the boundary sags South. Holding steady for now as it's a bit too early to nail down too many details, as it will all be dependent on the exact progression of the front.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. East-southeast flow prevails across east coast sites today with Gulf breeze development likely for APF.

MARINE

Issued at 1229 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Generally benign marine conditions today with east-southeast winds prevailing across local Atlantic waters. Across local Gulf waters, winds will be east-southeast during the morning hours, but flip to a more west-southwest during the afternoon hours. Wave heights remain 1-3 feet over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 91 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 74 92 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 74 91 74 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 74 89 75 89 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 74 89 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 75 94 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 91 73 90 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 74 89 74 89 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 72 89 73 89 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.