textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM this evening with possible heat index values of 106-110F, mainly for the east coast metro areas. Max temps today will hit the low-mid 90s. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow, favoring the Lake region.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Sfc analyses and model data still show a semi-stationary frontal boundary stretching across the SE CONUS, while weak sfc high pressure dominates both sides of the Florida peninsula over the Gulf region and the W Atlantic. At the upper-lvls, troughiness will further deepen over the E/SE CONUS, with several short-wave impulses traveling along its base and passing over northern Florida during the next several days. Meanwhile, mid-lvl ridging lingering over the region begins to finally break down and will allow for the onset of deeper moisture filtering into SoFlo.

The prevailing westerly flow will keep the best pool of moisture skewed towards the east coast. NBM and ensemble solutions raise POPs/Wx coverage along the entire east coast this afternoon into the 30-50% range for Miami-dade and Broward counties, and up to around 60 percent for Palm Beach and the Lake region. Latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today keep the Marginal Risk (at least 5%) right along the CWA boundary along the Lake region, which means that Glades, northern Hendry and even portions of northern Palm Beach counties could experience localized flooding with the heaviest downpours. Moderate to high CAPE in the 2-3K J/Kg range, DCAPE around 700 J/Kg and PWATs increasing back to around 2 inches will also increase the favorable conditions for thunderstorm activity to resume across much of SoFlo, especially over the aforementioned areas. A PVA impulse traveling along the base of the trough will move across northern/central Florida this afternoon and steeper lapse rates may also add additional support for thunderstorm activity. Pressure gradients will relax today as the high pressure ridges weaken, keeping sfc winds relatively light even in the afternoon hours. This will also increase the potential for localized flooding with slow-moving or even stationary storms.

For Saturday, the major adjustment to the synoptic scenario will be a gradual shift to a more SW to S flow, which will enhance moisture advection across SoFlo. POPs jump into the 30-50% south of I-75, and 60-80% for northern areas with a more widespread thunderstorm and shower coverage expected in the afternoon/early evening hours.

Temperatures this afternoon will again hit the low-mid 90s across much of SoFlo, with possible upper 90s over some inland locations. The Heat index values are expected to reach the 106-110F range over east coast locations for which a Heat Advisory will be in effect, mainly for the metro areas. Breezier conditions over coastal Collier county may help in preventing advisory criteria.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Long range model solutions depict a prevailing wetter pattern as moisture and instability continue to surge during the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Winds on Sunday and Monday will continue to transition from southwesterly to southerly winds, then becoming easterly by Tuesday as the W Atl ridge expands closer to SoFlo. This will shift the best chances of rain from eastern/interior areas during the weekend to western areas by mid week.

Latest NBM has significantly surged in moisture advection and content across SoFlo, lingering through the rest of the work week. Model PWAts well above 2" and max POPs upwards of 90% will keep a very active weather pattern, with wettest days being Sunday and Monday attm. The added instability and upper-lvl support from passing short-wave impulses along the base of the trough aloft will increase the potential for strong storms on both days, especially around the Lake region.

By Tuesday, easterly flow re-establishes and a more typical summer time pater will return with sea breezes driving convection towards interior and west coast areas each afternoon. But in general, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through basically the whole long term period. Main hazards will be lightning strikes, damaging gusty winds, large hail, and localized flooding.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR continues at all terminals through around 19-20Z. Thunderstorm activity is more likely over DJT later this afternoon with possible CIG/VIS restrictions at times for which a PROB30 is in place. The rest of the Atlantic terminals will carry VCTS and will be updated as necessary. APF has the lowest chances of restrictions as the westerly flow should keep convection away from the coastline. L/V flow will increase from the W/SW at around 10kt after 15Z, then L/V after 00Z.

MARINE

Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Moderate west-southwest winds continue through the weekend, except for afternoon periods of southerly winds at the Atlantic waters this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 94 78 93 79 / 40 10 50 20 West Kendall 94 75 93 75 / 30 10 40 10 Opa-Locka 96 78 94 79 / 40 20 50 30 Homestead 94 77 93 79 / 20 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 79 92 79 / 50 20 60 30 N Ft Lauderdale 94 79 92 79 / 50 20 60 30 Pembroke Pines 94 79 93 79 / 50 20 60 30 West Palm Beach 94 77 93 77 / 60 30 70 20 Boca Raton 93 77 92 78 / 50 20 60 30 Naples 91 80 91 79 / 20 20 40 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.