textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms today will focus mainly over interior and SW FL. Increasing rain chances this weekend into early next week.

- Heat index values will range from 100-105 across Southeast Florida and up to 105-110 across Southwest Florida this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Bertha will continue to slide to the west today across Louisiana and if it holds together should reach SE TX by late tonight. Meanwhile, weak surface high pressure will set up in the NE Gulf today, and an upper level low will be south of eastern Cuba. Locally, some coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this morning across the Atlantic coast, and then afternoon and early evening showers and storms will develop over inland and SW FL. High temps will be in the low to middle 90s today, with max heat indices of 103-108. Low confidence that heat advisory criteria will be met for at least two hours, so at this point no headlines are planned.

Mainly dry conditions expected overnight with just some occasional coastal showers possible. Low temps will range from the low to mid 70s over inland South FL, to upper 70s and low 80s closer to the coasts.

On Friday the upper low will slide towards the Yucatan while the surface high over the NE Gulf will slide westward along the northern Gulf coast. Forecast soundings and global models show deeper moisture moving into South FL. This will increase PoPs across the area, although with low level easterly flow continuing, the highest chances for showers and storms will remain over interior and SW FL, with just chance PoPs across the east coast metro. High temps will be in the lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

As we look towards the weekend and into the beginning of next week, upper level ridging will build into the western US, while troughing deepens over the eastern US and western Atlantic. This will allow a series of fronts to drop down from the northern Plains towards the Southeast US coast before dissipating. A stream of enhanced deeper level moisture will set up across South FL the end of this weekend into next week as it gets squeezed between the trough in the eastern US and high pressure in the central Atlantic. Another noticeable difference during this time period is that the low level flow across South FL will become more westerly starting Sunday and lasting through at least the early part of next week. This will bring the focus of convection each afternoon into early evening more into the east coast metro, resulting in higher than normal PoPs each day. While the rainfall is certainly welcome news given the ongoing drought conditions across the area, will need to be on the lookout for localized urban and poor drainage flooding each day.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with highs each day generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices of 105-110 will be possible each day, but with the increased rainfall chances it'll be tough to reach criteria for at least 2 hours each day, so any hazard decisions will likely be made on a day by day basis.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Although VFR should prevail for the rest of this afternoon, some periods of VCSH are still possible over the Atl terminals through around 00-01Z. VCTS may still result in brief periods of restricted vis/cigs at APF through around 00Z. Mainly VFR prevails tonight. SE winds in the 10-12kt will shift E tonight around 6-8kt, then back again to SE around 10-12kt Friday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day through the upcoming weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, moderate ENE breeze today in the Atlantic waters with light and variable winds in the Gulf. Seas 1-3 ft in the Gulf and 1-2 ft in the Atlantic.

BEACHES

Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Moderate easterly flow today will result in an elevated risk of rip currents along the east coast beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 91 80 93 / 50 40 20 80 West Kendall 77 92 77 93 / 40 50 20 90 Opa-Locka 80 93 79 94 / 50 40 20 80 Homestead 79 91 79 92 / 60 50 30 70 Fort Lauderdale 81 90 80 92 / 60 40 20 70 N Ft Lauderdale 81 90 80 92 / 60 50 20 70 Pembroke Pines 81 93 81 94 / 50 40 20 80 West Palm Beach 79 91 79 92 / 50 60 10 80 Boca Raton 80 90 79 91 / 50 50 20 70 Naples 77 92 77 91 / 20 70 30 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.