textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 249 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 - Dangerous Rip Currents to continue through the week. - Scattered urban flooding possible along the east coast Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

- Strong winds expected across the east coast beginning on Tuesday and peaking through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The northern and southern streams will remain loosely connected as shortwaves from the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes region superposition across the Northeast while a southern stream shortwave moves from west Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. This will have the effect of amplifying the base of the eastern CONUS longwave trough into the Southeast on Monday. This amplification and the resultant low-level response will keep a cold front progressing through north and Central Florida on Monday. As this frontal system moves the longwave pattern eastward, the nose of the surface ridge will slowly move out of south Florida, though a weak area of low pressure over the eastern Bahamas should keep easterly or southeasterly low-level flow prevailing through Monday.

The above will likely mean that the convective pattern for south Florida will be dominated by scattered showers along the east coast in the morning, followed by more robust convection across the interior and southwest portions of the region later in the day as the easterly flow interacts with the Gulf Breeze. Weakly diffluent flow aloft, 500mb temps near the daily mean, and PWATs in the upper quartile will favor a greater coverage in the aforementioned areas than recent afternoons, though the severe threat doesn't seem atypical for this time of year. The strongest cells may produce a quick 1-2 inches of rain, with isolated pockets of 2-4 inches not out of the question. However, due the expected location of these heavier pockets, significant flooding impacts are not expected.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The shortwave pattern above will have an influence on how strong and the position of next weeks ridge axis set to build across the Eastern Seaboard. We should get a clearer picture into this evolution some time tomorrow, and thus have a clearer picture as to *some* of the timing/positioning of the area of highest QPF along the east coast of Florida Tuesday through Wednesday. While there will be a decaying frontal boundary across the state that may focus a few of the stronger storms, the more broad forcing mechanism will be the strong easterly flow across the Gulf Stream and resultant near surface thermal gradients. This will set-up areas of ascent just offshore across the northern half of the Peninsula, and more focused right along the coast across the southern half. It will also result in the development of an inverted trough across the east coast of Florida which will aid in the increase of convergence near the coast. Generally speaking the threat area for heavy rain will shift from the Palm Beach coast on Tuesday to the entire east coast on Wednesday with scattered amounts of 1.5-2.5 inches in the threat areas each day. Isolated locations could see amounts as high as 3-4" in short order and WPC has placed the east coast into a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The strong easterly flow also falls into the top end of climatology for this time of year. Wednesday is expected to be the windiest afternoon across much of the east coast, but Tuesday could be pretty breezy around the Palm Beach coast. While common speeds of 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots are expected along the east coast on Wednesday, peak gusts could be on the order of 35 knots at times. These speeds could certainly disrupt unsecured objects and down branches and fronds.

Lighter, but still elevated easterly flow will continue around the persistent ridge through the end of the week. The same general pattern of late night/early morning storms along the east coast, transitioning to the interior and west coast through the day should be expected through the end of the week. Pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible each day, but the threat seems a bit lower later in the week than during mid-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

MVFR ceilings and light rain will prevail for the next couple of hours across the east coast. On the west coast, a TEMPO remains for APF as coverage and intensity of storms is far greater. VFR and low rain chances will prevail overnight, with showers and periods of MVFR returning across the east coast tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A moderate easterly breeze today will give way to a gentle breeze on Monday. Tuesday will be a transition day back to a fresh/strong breeze as a strong area of high pressure builds down the Eastern Seaboard and the Florida Peninsula. Expect periods of moderate to heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds (both coasts) and seas (east coast) will remain elevated through the entire week as strong high pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic.

At a minimum, Advisory conditions are expected for portions of the Atlantic and Gulf waters late Tuesday through the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Dangerous rip currents will continue through Monday as moderate onshore flow continue. The threat will drastically increase by mid week as onshore flow further increases in response to high pressure spreading down the Peninsula. In addition to rips surf heights will build on Tuesday across the Palm beaches and peak along the entire east coast on Wednesday, with peak breakers between 6-9 ft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 83 70 80 / 10 40 60 80 West Kendall 68 85 67 83 / 10 40 60 80 Opa-Locka 71 85 70 81 / 10 40 60 80 Homestead 72 84 70 81 / 10 40 50 80 Fort Lauderdale 72 81 70 78 / 10 40 60 90 N Ft Lauderdale 72 81 70 78 / 10 40 70 90 Pembroke Pines 72 85 70 82 / 10 40 60 80 West Palm Beach 70 81 69 78 / 10 50 70 90 Boca Raton 71 81 70 78 / 10 40 70 90 Naples 69 84 68 82 / 30 50 70 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.