textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 400 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely again this evening across SE FL. Chances will gradually decrease early next week.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts could be likely today as temperatures rise into the low-mid 90s, and heat indices linger in the 103-106F range.

- Lingering smoke from wildfires across SE FL could result in reduced air quality and lower visibilities across Miami-Dade and Broward.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Latest model data continues to indicate a consistent forecast for the next week, with daily afternoon chances for thunderstorms and continuing heat concerns. Currently storms have developed off of the Gulf sea breeze throughout western and southwestern Florida, and these storms and development will continue to shift east through the afternoon hours. These storms are currently supported with surface based CAPE values >2000J/kg, as well as perturbations in the upper level flow. One variable that is slightly lower compared to the storms yesterday is precipitable water is slightly lower, where values across the region are around 1.8 inches. This will likely result in less coverage and intensity by these storms, which is also reflected in CAMs/HRRR output over the next several hours. Severe potential will remain non-zero, with DCAPE values around 1100 J/kg through the region, and will depend if a storm can mature vertically enough for a severe level downdraft.

Heat will continue to be a concern throughout the region, with high temperatures low to mid 90s and relative humidities climbing into the 90s across most of the region. Heat index values are expected to climb into the mid to upper 100s across most of the region. Temperatures are expected to be a little bit warmer on Monday, with a couple degrees increase across the region. This heat risk will be monitored for potential headlines.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Hot conditions will continue through the remainder of the week, with persistent 100+ degree heat indexes across the region. Despite continued upper level ridging, there will continue to be a potential for showers and storms through the week. A plume of drier air due Saharan dust and mid-level drying will promote drier conditions during the middle of the week, and will likely induce some subsidence through the region to keep the potential for heat concerns ongoing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue Sunday through Monday morning at most sites, with some marginal MVFR ceiling possible through Sunday in far southeast Florida. Surface winds will be sea breeze dominated, with southerly/southeasterly winds along the Atlantic coast and westerly winds on the Gulf coast. Thunderstorms are currently developing along the Gulf sea breeze in western Florida, and can result in brief decreases in ceiling height, visibility, and gusty/erratic winds at the surface.

MARINE

Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Light southeasterly winds continue across the Atlantic waters today with southwesterly winds over the Gulf transitioning to westerly through the afternoon. Tonight, winds could veer from the north/northeast across all local waters before settling back from the south on Monday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the local waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas possible with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

MARINE

Issued at 153 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Light southeasterly winds continue across the Atlantic waters today with southerly to southwesterly winds over the Gulf. Tonight, winds could veer from the north/northeast across all local waters before settling back from the south on Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the local waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas possible with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 92 79 92 / 20 20 10 30 West Kendall 76 93 77 93 / 20 30 10 30 Opa-Locka 79 93 79 94 / 20 20 10 30 Homestead 79 93 80 93 / 20 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 92 80 92 / 20 20 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 79 92 79 91 / 20 20 10 40 Pembroke Pines 80 95 80 95 / 20 20 10 30 West Palm Beach 78 92 79 92 / 20 30 10 40 Boca Raton 79 91 80 91 / 20 20 10 40 Naples 78 93 79 93 / 10 30 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.