textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 107 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 - Periods of gusty conditions continue today as high pressure remains in control of the region.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue this this afternoon for the Atlantic waters. - High Risk of Rip Currents continue for all Atlantic beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 107 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Added smoke into the grids west of the MM45 fire off of US-27. Thankfully easterly winds should continue to keep most of that smoke away from the metro. Also lowered dewpoints this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon as guidance continues to run too high in this dry regime. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 409 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

High pressure ridge dominates the west Atlantic and extending into northern Florida, while a decaying stationary boundary lingers around the central Gulf waters and Cuba. Pressure gradients will remain tight enough for the robust ENE wind regime to continue, but gradually decreasing through the end of the work week.

Meanwhile, 00Z MFL sounding and model data show dry air dominating above 1km, although there is also a hint of a little moisture filtering into the mid levels. PWATs will remain below 1 inch today and possibly through Thursday, as the aforementioned ridge begins to migrate southeastward and closer to SoFlo. Also, models show an upper lvl shortwave feature developing over the SE CONUS and moving into the Gulf during the next couple of days. This feature may contribute some moisture and instability aloft, helping in bringing a very modest increase in POPs (15-20%) each day. QPF estimated values remain in the half inch range or lower. But in general, expect the drier trend to continue, while pressure gradients and sfc winds start to relax.

Afternoon temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest over the west coast.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 409 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Ensembles and global solutions show an upper lvl shortwave over the SE CONUS and into the Gulf on Friday, with latest ensembles depicting associated low lvl feature also developing over the Gulf, but remaining very weak. Expect some gradual increase in mid lvl moisture and instability, supporting low-end POP coverage (15-25%) each day, with best chances Friday afternoon, and QPF values in the half inch range or lower.

Long range solutions also depict a weak frontal boundary moving across the SE CONUS during the weekend, and less likely to reach further south as earlier model runs were suggesting. Meanwhile, ridging over the west Atlantic will remain dominant across SoFlo, with winds relaxing over SoFlo through Sunday. Sfc winds may become light or even calm at times, especially Sunday afternoon.

With the boundary to the north, overall flow will shift more from the south, which combined with daytime heating will favor isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring interior and northern portions of SoFlo each afternoon. Then conditions may begin to dry again early next week as high pressure follows the departing front.

Temperatures should remain near normals on Friday, with low-mid 80s for the east coast and interior areas, and upper 80s for the Gulf coast. A warming trend follows and by Tuesday afternoon highs should be hitting the upper 80s to low 90s across much of South Florida.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR through the rest of the day. Easterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts through early evening.

MARINE

Issued at 409 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Hazardous boating conditions continue through this morning over the Atlantic waters and Biscayne Bay as the breezy and gusty NE winds begin to gradually subside. Still, small craft should exercise caution until seas subside, especially around the Gulf stream.

BEACHES

Issued at 409 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The strong onshore flow will keep promoting a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through at least Friday morning, then continuing over the Palm Beach coastline through Friday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 69 79 69 81 / 10 20 20 30 West Kendall 65 80 65 83 / 10 20 20 30 Opa-Locka 68 80 68 83 / 10 20 20 30 Homestead 68 80 69 82 / 10 20 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 69 78 69 80 / 10 20 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 68 78 69 80 / 10 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 69 81 69 85 / 10 20 10 30 West Palm Beach 68 78 67 80 / 10 10 10 20 Boca Raton 68 78 69 80 / 10 20 10 20 Naples 65 83 65 85 / 0 20 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ650- 651-670-671.

GM...None.