textproduct: Miami - South Florida

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

A stalled cold front over the Florida Straits will continue to influence conditions across the region over the next couple of days. While northerly flow behind the boundary will usher in a noticeable cooler and drier airmass aloft today, lingering low-level moisture and modest instability over the local waters and southeast FL will support periods of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Coverage should remain generally isolated to scattered in nature, and focused over the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro. Given the drier air aloft, any convection that develops is expected to remain low-topped and weak.

Temperatures will remain comfortable through the period, with afternoon highs in the low-mid 70s, and overnight lows dropping to the upper 50s across the interior and down to the mid 60s along the coasts. Comfortable temperatures will also be likely on Tuesday, with highs topping off in the mid 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

A stalled cold front over the Florida Straits will continue to influence conditions across the region over the next couple of days. While northerly flow behind the boundary will usher in a noticeable cooler and drier airmass aloft today, lingering low-level moisture and modest instability over the local waters and southeast FL will support periods of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Coverage should remain generally isolated to scattered in nature, and focused over the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro. Given the drier air aloft, any convection that develops is expected to remain low-topped and weak.

Temperatures will remain comfortable through the period, with afternoon highs in the low-mid 70s, and overnight lows dropping to the upper 50s across the interior and down to the mid 60s along the coasts. Comfortable temperatures will also be likely on Tuesday, with highs topping off in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

A reinforcing dry cold front is forecast to sweep south across the area on Thursday, finally pushing the stationary front over the FL Straits south, and driving another surge of dry air across the region. This dry front corresponds to a faster and weaker solution that ensemble guidance has begun to lock onto for the late-week upper trough moving across the Eastern US. This will result in generally quiet and seasonable weather through the end of the work week and into the first half of the weekend. Expect highs each day in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s over the interior, and mid 60s along the coasts.

Confidence in the forecast begins to decrease late in the weekend and into next week. Some ensemble members hint at a developing upper- level disturbance over the Gulf that could slide eastward over the peninsula, potentially increasing moisture along the column and leading to a slight uptick in rain chances. While uncertainty remains regarding timing and intensity, went with the prevailing NBM guidance for the end of the period, with PoPs in the 20-30% range.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Generally VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period, with northerly winds increasing to the 10-15 kt range later today, and gusts up to 20 kts possible. There is a chance for some lower CIGs this afternoon, but this will be monitored. A few isolated showers could move across the east coast, but confidence remains low regarding any potential impacts to terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Northerly winds between 15-20 kts will prevail across all local waters today, resulting in hazardous boating conditions. Seas will also build today, reaching the 7-9 ft range across the Atlantic waters, and 3-5 ft range across the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this evening. Conditions will gradually improve overnight into Wednesday as winds relax. A few thunderstorms could be likely over the Atlantic waters today and on Wednesday, with locally higher winds and seas possible.

BEACHES

Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

High risk of rip currents will be possible for all East Coast beaches today as breezy winds and swell develop across the local atlantic waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 68 80 59 / 40 30 10 0 West Kendall 77 64 82 55 / 40 30 10 0 Opa-Locka 77 66 82 58 / 40 30 10 0 Homestead 77 68 81 59 / 40 30 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 74 68 79 58 / 30 30 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 74 68 79 58 / 30 30 10 10 Pembroke Pines 77 66 82 57 / 40 30 10 0 West Palm Beach 74 66 79 56 / 30 20 10 0 Boca Raton 76 67 81 57 / 30 30 10 10 Naples 75 61 77 59 / 10 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ656- 657-676.