textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 320 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect today for coastal/metro Miami- Dade and Broward. Further heat concerns are expected for all of South FL the rest of this week. This may cause heat related concerns for sensitive populations.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening, mainly across Palm Beach and Broward counties. Heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and poor drainage flooding.

- Minor coastal flooding is possible this afternoon during high tide for Mainland Monroe.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Latest analysis identifies two important synoptic features that will be the primary influences in determining where convective coverage will set up for this mid-week period. One of these features is a surface ridge located in the central Atlantic and the second feature is a shortwave trough in southeast Texas with the trough axis extending into the western Gulf. A mid-level ridge also extends across South Florida with the region situated in the western portion of the ridge circulation. With this pattern, surface flow will be primarily southerly/south-southwesterly while mid-level flow will be out of a southwesterly direction. The end result will be a pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary along the east coast metro with convection being steered northeastwards. This should focus the strongest storms in northeastern Broward county and southeastern Palm Beach county, and there will be a low-end chance (<5%) for a marginally severe storm to develop in this area where maximized convergence along the sea breeze boundary and the prevailing southwesterly flow occurs. This combination could result in an isolated robust updraft capable of producing low-end severe winds and/or hail. This will be a highly conditional case, but remains an outside possibility. Wednesday looks to be another rinse and repeat day with this pattern lingering, meaning that the focus for convective showers and storms will be in the northeast portions of South Florida again (Broward and Palm Beach counties) with lesser activity expected in Miami-Dade.

The risk for localized flooding will also need to be monitored today given weak flow at jet stream level that is likely to lead to slow storm motion. The latest HREF LPMM highlights the potential for localized pockets of 3-4" of rain in a 1-2 hour time frame. Given this data, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk (a minimum 5% chance) for excessive rainfall across Southeast Florida.

Lastly, there will be an ongoing risk for excessive heat through the middle of this week. Being under a high pressure circulation for several days that results in subsidence warming, we can see slight increases in ambient high temperatures by a degree or two for several days until the pattern changes. With this in mind for today and tomorrow, much of the east coast metro could reach the mid 90s for highs and the beach areas could reach 90 degrees. With dew points in the mid to upper 70s and high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, it's going to be probable for many locations across Southeast Florida to experience Heat Advisory criteria (especially the 105F for 2 hours or more in Broward and Miami-Dade). With this in mind and most of the rain today expected to stay in northeast portions of the region, have decided to issue a Heat Advisory today from 12PM to 6PM for coastal and metro zones in the aforementioned counties with maximum heat index values of 105-108F possible. Have avoided placing Palm Beach county into the advisory given higher criteria (108F for 2 or more hours) and the likelihood of more widespread rainfall there. Additional confidence in this issuance was present from the Probabilistic HeatRisk prototype which shows a 20-40% chance of reaching Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4), which would affect any person who lacks proper cooling or hydration.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will remain anchored in the vicinity through at least the end of the week. The area of low pressure in the western Gulf will likely get absorbed into the broad upper level trough across the eastern US towards the end of the week, while upper level ridging builds into the western Atlantic. Locally, our convection will be primarily diurnally driven sea breeze convection each day with the highest PoPs favoring inland locations and western portions of the east coast metro as both the Atlantic sea breeze and Gulf breeze will be able to advance inland. Additional storms are expected to fire along outflow boundaries and their collisions. Overnights will be fairly quiet each night outside of some occasional coastal showers along the Atlantic coast.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal in the low to mid 90s each day. Heat indices will likely approach advisory criteria each day, maxing out at 105-110 degrees. Timing of rainfall each day will be critical on whether or not advisory/warning criteria will be reached.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Generally VFR expected for the period. Light winds tonight increase to around 5-7 kts after 12Z out of the SSW for east coast terminals before shifting SSE as the sea breeze moves onshore. VCTS is in effect for all east coast terminals after 18Z, with KPBI and KFXE/KFLL having highest risk for restrictions caused by on site storm activity. Short-fused amendments or TEMPOs are possible, but opted for VCTS for now due to some uncertainty on timing.

MARINE

Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Gentle to moderate southerly winds continue through mid-week. Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas at times. Outside of convection, seas will be 1-2 ft or less across all local waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Due to the ongoing new moon cycle, minor coastal flooding is possible again today during high tide from late this morning through early this afternoon along the Mainland Monroe coastline.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The wildfire "Quarry 2" continues to burn in the western fringes of the east coast metro area. The fire is currently 30% contained and fire fighters continue to work on eliminating the fire. However, until this is taken care of the smoke from the fire will continue to disperse quite well and is expected to spread east- northeastwards as winds will be out of a SW/WSW direction. Lower air quality is possible and could impact sensitive individuals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 78 93 80 / 20 10 30 0 West Kendall 93 76 94 79 / 10 10 30 0 Opa-Locka 94 78 95 80 / 20 10 30 0 Homestead 92 79 93 80 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 93 81 / 30 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 78 93 80 / 40 10 30 10 Pembroke Pines 96 79 96 81 / 30 10 30 10 West Palm Beach 93 78 93 79 / 50 20 30 20 Boca Raton 92 79 92 81 / 50 10 30 10 Naples 90 79 91 81 / 10 10 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ072-074-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.