textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 705 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Elevated risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through at least mid-week.

- Patchy fog possible across inland and SW Florida early this morning.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through most of the upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Surface high pressure currently centered over the eastern Gulf will advect over the Florida Peninsula through mid-week while a stronger mid-level and upper-level ridge builds simultaneously. This will create a highly stable environment, and additionally some of the modestly deeper moisture across the area will get filtered out with PWATs falling to 1.0-1.1" versus the 1.3-1.5" the last couple of days. Therefore, even though we remain in an easterly surface flow pattern under this high pressure regime, the afternoon Gulf breeze is not expected to produce much shower activity given the drier air column. Overall, PoPs will be at 10% or less across South Florida through Wednesday and the highest of this will be towards the Gulf coast.

With weak winds in the late night hours early this morning, patchy fog will be possible across inland and Southwest Florida late tonight up until a couple hours after daybreak that can reduce visibilities on the roadways. High temperatures the next couple days are expected in the mid to upper 80s for most locations, though some spots in the interior might reach 90.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

As we approach the late week period and the first half of the upcoming weekend, a fairly potent shortwave trough will advect eastward from the Texas/Louisiana area underneath a larger scale trough over the northern US. Given the strong ridge pattern over the Florida Peninsula, this shortwave will weaken in its approach to South Florida as well as its attendant cold front. Because of the front and shortwave weakening in their approach, any rainfall we get is not likely to be of the widespread heavy rain and thunderstorm variety. Instead we are likely to see a more messy coverage of showers and thunderstorms with lower amounts of rainfall. QPF is still under an inch for a span of a few days Thursday through Saturday. The bulk of this looks to occur on Friday as this will be when the strongest energy and vorticity advection occurs from the shortwave trough before it departs this weekend. While there certainly can be some heavier pockets of rain, the general consensus in long term guidance is that QPF will be rather meager across the region.

For the very end of the forecast period, guidance is suggesting the potential for another shortwave to form over the Gulf and cross into South Florida on Sunday into Monday with more increased rain chances. However, uncertainty is high with this given it is at the tail end of the forecast period.

High temperatures will fall slightly for Friday as the cold front washes out, but most areas will still be in the low to mid 80s or even upper 80s for some interior locations. Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night for most areas, although east coast locations will continue to be around 70 each night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 705 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Primarily VFR conditions through the period. East-southeast winds are forecast to develop by the late morning hours and persist into the afternoon hours at all east coast terminals. Gulf breeze development is forecast at APF by around 18Z. Winds will become light and variable after sunset this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 83 72 83 72 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 86 67 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 85 70 85 71 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 84 72 84 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 82 71 81 72 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 82 71 82 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 85 71 85 71 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 83 70 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 83 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 87 67 87 68 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.