textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 730 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers today with a few embedded storms. Any impacts are expected to be minor. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected to develop for the end of this week and into this weekend. - Minor coastal flooding is possible this weekend along the Atlantic coast.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

11z Mesoanalysis this morning in tandem with the ongoing 12z MFL Upper Air Sounding & recent ACARS profiles from SoFlo airports reveals light peninsular drainage surface wind flow across the Florida Peninsula as well as the establishment of deep layer northerly flow for much of the atmospheric column. A gradual decrease in precipitable water values has also been observed across the region as a continental airmass gradually advects southwards across the Florida Peninsula via cyclonic flow on the western side of a departing surface low over the northwestern Bahamas. Notably there has been a infusion of dry air in the middle layer of the atmosphere which will act to keep any convection that develops today capped in nature. There has still been enough residual surface moisture to get patches of dense fog across southwestern Florida and low stratus elsewhere, both of which should dissipate shortly with diurnal mixing. The overnight forecast remains on track.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A weak frontal boundary that has been previously discussed the last couple of days will work southwards today and eventually push through the southern part of the forecast area on Friday. Dew points are expected to initially fall into the low 70s with this weak front, and winds will shift out of the north. As much drier mid- level air arrives and overall PWATs fall back to near normal, much less rain shower and thunderstorm activity is expected for the end of this week. PoPs today peak at 40-50% across SW Florida and the lake region before falling to 20-40% across all of South Florida on Friday. In general, convection today should be very scattered and less robust in nature as drier air advecting into the mid-levels will provide some inhibition. Additionally, there is not expected to be a localized flooding threat today due to that dry air arrival, and because of any showers and storms moving rather quickly with brisk northerly flow. A couple of stronger storms could produce some heavier rainfall rates and stronger wind gusts, but otherwise minimal impacts are to be expected for the end of this week.

High temperatures to end the week will be in the upper 80s to around 90, and overnight lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Through this weekend, prevailing flow will be out of the north as a developing nor'easter in the New England region stalls. The trough axis associated with this system will extend southwards to the western Atlantic waters off the Florida coast. Thus, South Florida will remain in northerly flow pattern through the weekend and this will keep drier air in the atmospheric column along with inhibition of deep convection. While some positive vorticity impulses will stream across the area and the diurnal sea breezes will still form, these along may not be enough to overcome the inhibition. Nevertheless, some air parcels will be capable of lifting high enough to produce some isolated to scattered showers or storms but they will not be overly strong. In general, expecting convection to be of the weaker variety through Sunday.

By early next week, the system in the northeast US will shift more northwards as a mid-to-upper level shortwave trough pushes across the central US and deepens across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US regions. As this trough swings through the Florida Peninsula, low level flow will shift back to a southeasterly direction and result in the return of tropical moisture advection. With deeper moisture arriving and this trough providing some upper level forcing for ascent, rain chances will increase back to the 60-80% range by Tuesday and into the middle of next week. Any potential impacts will be assessed later on since this is at the end of the forecast period and uncertainty is high.

High temperatures each day are still expected in the upper 80s to around 90 each day for most areas. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler with the front clearing the area, with lows near the lake region in the mid 60s and the rest of the region seeing lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 730 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Light northerly flow will continue across the region today with winds veering slightly onshore (NNWrly at KAPF, NNErly at east coast terminals) by 17-19z. Low cigs will gradually lift as the morning progresses becoming VFR at all terminals outside of any SHRA. SHRA will be possible during the afternoon hours but should be much more isolated in nature compared to previous days. A wind surge will arrive overnight into early Friday, resulting in breezy to gusty winds at the tail end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Increasingly hazardous conditions are expected to arise late this week. Winds today will become moderate to fresh out of a northerly direction and continue into the weekend as a frontal boundary and northerly swell move into the area. Winds are eventually expected to reach around 20-25 kts In addition, seas are expected to rise to 7- 10 feet in the Atlantic beginning Thursday night. With these conditions, Small Craft Advisories have been issued beginning late Thursday night through Friday night.

BEACHES

Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A high risk for rip currents is expected to return late tonight into Friday and this weekend as an increasing northerly swell and brisk northerly winds arrive. In addition, high surf is possible along the Palm Beaches this weekend with big breaking waves of up to 7-8 feet.

Furthermore, a King Tide Cycle is expected this weekend that will be enhanced by a full moon cycle. This may result in minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 75 88 73 / 50 20 40 10 West Kendall 88 74 88 72 / 50 20 40 10 Opa-Locka 89 75 88 72 / 50 20 40 10 Homestead 89 74 89 73 / 50 20 50 10 Fort Lauderdale 88 75 87 73 / 50 30 40 10 N Ft Lauderdale 88 75 87 73 / 50 30 40 10 Pembroke Pines 88 74 87 72 / 50 20 40 10 West Palm Beach 88 75 87 73 / 50 30 30 20 Boca Raton 88 74 87 72 / 50 30 40 10 Naples 90 73 88 70 / 20 20 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Saturday morning for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.