textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1257 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- A high risk of rip currents is now in effect across the Atlantic Coast beaches through Sunday evening. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day through the rest of the weekend. The highest chances will remain during the afternoon and evening hours over the interior as well as Southwest Florida. - High temperatures will reach the low 90s in many areas of South Florida, along with Heat Index values in the low-mid 100s each day.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 104 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Forecast continues to look on track with previous discussions. An upper-level (250-300 mb) ridge axis centered over the eastern Gulf have acted as a mode of transport for a dense cirrus deck into our South Florida skies from billowing convection over the corresponding marine environment. Breezy east-southeasterly surface flow continues to be observed across the region today due to a tight pressure gradient as we remained sandwiched between subtropical ridging to our east and anomalously low MSLPs over the western Gulf. Aside from our instability-latent Atlantic waters from which a few showers have formed and moved onshore, they have proven to be nothing more than just a nuisance for impacted portions of our east coast metros since this morning. Over mainland South Florida, convection has been hard to come by thus far today due to low to mid-level dry air that has been made evident on both the 12Z MFL and regional ACARS soundings. Although we will be seeing enough sunshine peak through the aforementioned cloud canopy throughout the afternoon (and surface- based CAPE values climbing into the 2500-3500 J/Kg), this lingering dry air (as per forecast soundings) and overall poor low-level dynamics (0-3km lapse rates of 6.5-7.0C/Km) should keep showers isolated to scattered in nature and thunderstorms (due to lack of saturation in the first 5-6 km of the vertical column) few and far in between. The showers and isolated thunderstorms that do develop through sunset should be favoring the Lake Okeechobee region and Southwest Florida (downwind of our swift east-southeasterly flow both at the surface and aloft) with PoPs ranging between 20 and 50%. The strength of our superficial SE flow should mostly offset our Gulf sea breeze and thereby prevent convection along the immediate Gulf coast later this afternoon from dumping any significant rainfall totals and instead, allow these showers and/or storms to be more transient in nature.

Marginal PoPs will be kept along the immediate east coast overnight into Sunday morning to highlight the potential for this repeat pattern of nocturnal shower activity over the Atlantic moving onshore and affecting primarily coastal Palm Beach and Broward along our prevailing SE flow. More overall sunshine will be returning to the forecast tomorrow as the models are hinting at the intrusion of some drier air into South Florida on the south/southwestern flank of mid-level ridging over our nearshore Atlantic waters. Persisting SE flow (and progressively becoming more easterly aloft) should again allow isolated to scattered showers to favor the western half of South Florida mainly during the afternoon hours (PoPs of 30-50%) and for our east coast metros to stay relatively dry throughout this same time period (PoPs of 10-20%). Similar to today, thunderstorms should be rather isolated in nature due to the aforementioned ambient dry air aloft and lack of sufficient forcing in the low levels preventing substantial vertical growth. Highs should be peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s both today and Sunday with heat index values at or barely surpassing 100F.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 405 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The dominance of the high pressure ridge to the north of SoFlo will finally break down on Monday as guidance weakens the mid-lvl ridge across the SE CONUS due to a developing trough/low complex. An associated sfc cold front is shown gradually migrating southward and becoming stationary along the northern portions of the peninsula.

Global models show a potential low developing along the stalled front around NE Florida, and slowly migrating northward across the west Atlantic during the first half of the work week. The influence of the low will keep ongoing tropical moisture advection across the state. NBM responds to this scenario by pushing highest afternoon POPs into the 80-90% range each day through the end of the work week. Coverage becomes widespread across SoFlo by Tuesday.

With the weakening of the ridge to the north and the aforementioned low gradually pushing northward, pressure gradients over the area will weaken and bring winds across SoFlo to a light flow or even calm at times during much of the work week. This will allow for afternoon sea breeze and storm outflow boundaries to drive storm development and motion. Main hazards will include damaging gusts, lightning strikes, and localized flooding.

Temperatures seem to remain warm with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, along with heat index values in the low-mid 100s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Brief MVFR periods are still possible at the Atlantic terminals through around 14Z with passing coastal showers, then VFR should prevail for the rest of today. APF may experience periods of stronger restrictions and erratic winds as chances of thunderstorms will be significantly higher, mainly after 18Z. VFR then prevails and winds becoming L/V after 02-03Z tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 405 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A moderate to fresh east southeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters through the rest of the weekend. These winds will gradually diminsh early next week, and they could become south southwesterly across the Gulf waters during this time frame. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week across most of the local waters.

Gulf Stream Hazards: None.

BEACHES

Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A High Risk if Rip Currents is now in effect for all Atlantic beaches through Sunday evening. Please follow all posted safety measures at local beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 90 77 89 / 10 40 20 60 West Kendall 77 90 76 89 / 10 40 20 60 Opa-Locka 78 90 77 90 / 10 40 30 70 Homestead 78 89 77 89 / 10 30 10 50 Fort Lauderdale 78 89 77 89 / 10 40 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 78 90 77 89 / 10 50 30 70 Pembroke Pines 77 90 76 89 / 10 40 30 70 West Palm Beach 77 90 76 90 / 10 60 40 80 Boca Raton 78 89 76 89 / 10 50 40 70 Naples 75 88 76 87 / 30 30 30 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.