textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through the middle of the week. Some thunderstorm development will also be possible on Wednesday afternoon. An isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region during this time frame.

- A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible out ahead of the front.

- Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will push into the region for the upcoming weekend along with breezy conditions as high pressure builds in from the north.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Weak mid level ridging will gradually move eastward today in response to a fast moving shortwave which will move towards the lower Mississippi Valley tonight before moving across the Northern Gulf coast and into Northern Florida as Wednesday progresses. At the surface, high pressure will gradually push into the western Atlantic today and it will continue to pull further away from the region tonight into Wednesday. While plenty of drier air will remain in tact across the mid to upper levels of the atmospheric column, lower level moisture will continue to filter in over the region as a light east to southeasterly surface wind flow continues today. This will help to keep PWATs generally between 1.4 and 1.6 inches area wide today with most of this moisture residing in the lower portion of the column. While most of the region will remain dry today, this lower level moisture will be just enough to have the potential to spark off some isolated shower activity mainly due sea breeze interactions later in the afternoon. Any shower that does develop today will be low topped, however, a brief heavy downpour cannot be entirely ruled out with any stronger shower that is able to take advantage of additional forcing from mesoscale boundary collisions. High temperatures today will generally range from the lower to mid 80s along the east coast and Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

The aforementioned shortwave that will be pushing across the Northern Gulf coast and into Northern Florida on Wednesday will stay well off to the north, however, it will help to shift the mid level wind flow to more of a southwesterly direction. At the same time, it will help to introduce some cooler air aloft (500mb temps of -8 to -10C) over the region which will help to create some steeper lapse rates especially up towards the Lake Okeechobee region which will be closer to the shortwave. As the surface high pulls further away, winds at the surface will remain rather light, however, the synoptic flow will gradually veer to more of a southerly direction as the day progresses. As deeper layer moisture advects into the region, this could create the opportunity for higher chances of shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. With a southwesterly steering flow in place, afternoon convection will favor the interior/Lake Okeechobee region as well as portions of the east coast metro areas. The main forcing mechanism for initial convective development will still be the sea breeze boundary collisions. While strong thunderstorm development chances will still remain on the lower end, with the colder air aloft and the additional instability in place some isolated strong thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out especially where mesoscale boundary interactions take place. The stronger storms would be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy downpours. The best chances of stronger thunderstorm activity on Wednesday would tend to favor the Lake Okeechobee region as that is where the colder temperatures will be aloft closer to the actual shortwave. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s, however, upper 80s are possible over Southwest Florida mainly south of Alligator Alley.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

The weather pattern starts to change heading into Thursday and Friday as a series of strong mid level shortwaves push across the Midwest Wednesday night and then into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Thursday and Friday. Mid level troughing will extend well down to the south into the Gulf and over the Southeastern part of the county as well as the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the surface, an area of low pressure will dive across the Midwest and into the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday before gradually pushing off the New England Coastline Thursday night into Friday. The cold front associated with this intensifying system will extend southwestward through the Southeastern States on Thursday and then across the Florida Peninsula Thursday night into Friday.

Out ahead of this frontal boundary, the pressure gradient will increase across South Florida on Thursday as winds veer to a southwesterly direction. This could create breezy and gusty conditions across the area during this time frame. The latest guidance trends seems to be leaning towards a faster frontal passage across the region which would occur later Thursday night into early Friday morning. With guidance trending towards the faster and more progressive solution, shower activity will be more scattered in nature out ahead of the front from Thursday into early Friday morning. This also would suggest chances for thunderstorm development will remain rather low as the best dynamics and instability associated with the system will be located well off to the northeast of the region. High temperatures on Thursday will generally range from around 80 across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower to mid 80s further to the south.

Behind the front, winds will gradually shift and increase out of the northwest across the region for the rest of Friday. This will allow for strong cold and dry air advection to take place especially heading into Friday afternoon as strong high pressure begins to build in from the north. This area of high pressure will keep dry conditions in place through the upcoming weekend and it will usher in the coolest airmass of the fall season so far. Cold air advection will continue to take place through the first part of the weekend before winds start to shift and become more northeasterly on Sunday. Before the northeasterly wind shift, low temperatures could drop into the 50s across most areas on Friday night into Saturday morning, and then again on Saturday night into Sunday morning. High temperatures on Saturday may only reach the upper 60s along and north of Alligator Alley due to the strong cold air advection while areas south of Alligator Alley see high temperatures in the lower 70s during this time frame. High temperatures on Sunday will start to moderate as the winds become northeasterly and cold air advection comes to an end.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. ESE winds at 8-10 kts are expected at all east coast sites this afternoon. At KAPF, a westerly Gulf breeze will occur at 8-10 kts this afternoon. Winds become L/V again overnight after 23-00Z.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will gradually shift and become more southerly heading towards the middle of the week. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible today, however, chances of showers and thunderstorms will start to increase on Wednesday especially across the Atlantic waters. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. A strong cold front will gradually approach the local waters on Thursday before pushing through the region during the end of the week. Behind the front, hazardous marine conditions may develop across the Atlantic and Gulf waters for the end of the week as winds and seas increase.

BEACHES

Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 85 72 83 / 10 40 10 30 West Kendall 73 85 72 84 / 10 30 10 30 Opa-Locka 73 86 71 84 / 10 40 20 30 Homestead 74 85 72 84 / 10 20 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 73 84 71 82 / 10 40 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 73 84 71 82 / 10 30 20 20 Pembroke Pines 72 86 71 84 / 10 40 20 30 West Palm Beach 72 84 70 81 / 10 40 20 20 Boca Raton 73 84 70 81 / 10 30 20 20 Naples 72 84 72 81 / 10 10 40 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.