textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 652 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- While uncertain, any prolonged duration of heavy rainfall over urban areas today could result in localized urban flooding.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions are forecast to develop across portions of the region this afternoon and evening. - A stalled out frontal boundary could keep rain chances elevated across much of the region through the end of the work week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

06z Mesoanalysis depicts a saturated yet stable airmass across South Florida this morning as surface observations still depict the frontal boundary (that is due to arrive across the region later today) draped across northern Central Florida, identified by a dewpoint gradient and a thin line of ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity. Before we dive into today's forecast further, let's take a closer look at the driving mechanics behind the forecast with a wide- eyed lens and then hone in on specific forecast details. RTMA analysis depicts mid-level troughing continuing to deepen just offshore of the eastern United States this morning with a resultant enhancement of a meridional oriented jet-streak. The right entrance region of this jet-streak (no need to reference the Four Quadrant Model) has resulted in enough low level convergence to induce surface cyclogenesis over the western Atlantic waters. This area of surface low pressure is also connected to the aforementioned surface frontal boundary and will provide enough influence to drag the boundary southwards into South Florida before synoptic influence from the surface low and mid-level trough wanes tonight into Thursday.

As the frontal boundary slides southward across the region, a pressure gradient between surface high pressure over the southeastern United States and the frontal boundary will enhance, resulting in breezy to gusty northeasterly winds. These winds and ample cloud cover from the proximity of the frontal boundary will usher in lower high temperatures today (perhaps even slightly below average) in the low to mid 80s across most of South Florida (with the exception of upper 80s across far southern Florida). The same mechanism that will usher in those cooler high temperatures and cloud cover will also result in potentially a complex convective evolution during the afternoon and evening hours of today. Favorable ingredients for convection are present across the region, however there is also several limiting factors that could also be in play to stifle widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Let's discuss the favorable parameters first, South Florida remains in a plume of deep tropical moisture today that has remained draped across the region over the last several days. A saturated atmospheric profile in tandem with a slow moving frontal boundary could result in any developing convection remaining pinned along the frontal boundary and allowing for isolated pockets of higher precipitation. Potential limiting factors include widespread cloud cover that could keep things stable over land which would act to limit the spatial and temporal extent of diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity as well as a further southward propagation of the frontal boundary itself. This high level of uncertainty is visibly present in the wide range of 00z HREF ensemble members that depict potential rainfall amounts through midnight tonight. Some model members depict widespread accumulations remaining below 1 inch, leaning more-so to a stable stratiform setup today. However, other model guidance members depicts widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches across portions of the east coast metro with isolated amounts of 3-5+ inches possible. If higher end rainfall totals materialize over urban areas today, urban flooding could be realized. The Weather Prediction Center has placed the east coast metro portions of South Florida in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall today. Outside of hydrologic concerns, lightning activity and sub- severe gusty winds could be possible with any thunderstorm activity that develops.

Frictional convergence as northeasterly winds slow along the east coast could keep shower and thunderstorm activity in the forecast tonight into early Thursday for southern east coast locales even after diurnal heating is lost. Similar to what we discussed in more detail above, much will depend on the exact placement of the stalled surface frontal boundary but with high precipitable water values and a large warm cloud layer, additional periods of heavy rainfall remain possible. The combination of deep atmospheric moisture and the stalled frontal boundary will usher in the continuation of a heavy rainfall threat during the day on Thursday. Cloud cover from the boundary and any developing shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to limit high temperatures during the day on Thursday with widespread values in the low to mid 80s possible.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

By the beginning of the upcoming weekend, the latest forecast model guidance has shed additional clarity on the potential synoptic and surface features that could influence our local weather regime. Ensemble and deterministic guidance now highlight the potential of South Florida remaining situated in a dipole of mid-level ridging during this time period with an axis of mid-level ridging over the central Gulf and a separate axis of mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic waters. A stream of mid-level vorticity in between these two features will remain oriented across the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a plume of deeper atmospheric moisture is forecast to remain across the southern half of the region on Saturday as the stationary frontal boundary gradually begins to lift northwards across South Florida as the influence and strength of surface high pressure gradually weakens across the western Atlantic waters. Although precipitable water values will remain above the 75th-90th percentile during the upcoming weekend, 500mb temperatures are forecast to continue to warm as mid-level ridging across the central Gulf is forecast to strengthen and build eastward. Although surface ridging is forecast to weaken during this period, surface background flow remaining out of an easterly direction will focus diurnal convection across southwestern portions of the region each afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to trend higher during this period with forecasted values in the upper 80s to low 90s both Saturday and Sunday.

Mid-level ridging across the Gulf is forecast to persist into early next week as the next lobe of mid-level troughing over the northeastern United States is forecast by some model members (GFS) to slow in momentum and become a cut-off low. Other model guidance (Euro) depicts a much more progressive evolution of troughing further to the east with less of an influence across the eastern United States. Regardless, model guidance members depict the deeper moisture retrograding further north across the Florida peninsula during the early week period which could result in higher rain chances returning to the forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 652 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Light and variable winds through 14z. Northeasterly winds develop and enhance as a frontal boundary pushes southward across South Florida through the remainder of the morning. Uncertainty remains high on the spatial and temporal extent of SHRA/TSRA later today and tonight, however the latest forecast model guidance still hints at a high enough potential to maintain VCSH/VCTS in the TAF forecast at this time. TEMPOs or short fused amendments may be needed if convection develops and approaches area terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A surge of surface winds is forecast across nearshore waters of South Florida this afternoon and evening as a pressure gradient strengthens across the region in the wake of a frontal boundary that is forecasted to stall out across the extreme southern extent of South Florida or just south over the Florida Keys. Breezy northeasterly to easterly surface flow will result in the development of Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) by the early afternoon hours with the onset of Small Craft Advisory conditions across most of the nearshore waters this evening into early Thursday. The combination of northeasterly winds and a significant northeasterly swell will result in wave heights reaching the 7-9 feet range across the Gulfstream waters during this same time frame.

BEACHES

Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The enhancement of northeasterly surface winds behind the frontal boundary will result in gusty onshore flow at Palm Beach County beaches this afternoon, resulting in the development of a high risk of rip currents during the afternoon hours that is forecast to persist through at least the end of the work week. The combination of a significant northeasterly swell moving southward across the Atlantic waters beginning tonight and continued onshore surface winds over the next several days will result in a southward expansion of the high risk of rip currents to Miami-Dade and Broward County beaches on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 84 74 81 74 / 80 60 70 40 West Kendall 86 72 83 71 / 80 60 70 40 Opa-Locka 86 74 83 74 / 80 60 70 40 Homestead 86 74 83 75 / 80 60 80 50 Fort Lauderdale 83 75 81 75 / 70 60 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 83 75 81 75 / 70 50 60 30 Pembroke Pines 86 75 84 75 / 70 60 60 30 West Palm Beach 82 75 82 75 / 70 40 40 20 Boca Raton 83 75 82 76 / 70 50 50 20 Naples 86 72 84 72 / 50 30 70 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ651-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ656-676.