textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 643 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Heat indices as high as 105-110 degrees expected each day through the end of the weekend.

- Smoke from wildfire activity in central Miami-Dade county will continue to disperse across the region, mainly in Southeast Florida. Lower air quality from wildfire smoke can be hazardous to sensitive populations.

- Increasing chances for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The remnants of Arthur will continue to track across the east coast and into the western Atlantic waters today, while a secondary shortwave is expected to detach from these remnants and advect into Central Florida today and the first half of this weekend. With deep moisture in place and the erosion of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), rain chances will begin to increase back to at least the scattered range today. Weak flow persists through the local atmosphere today and tomorrow, leading to slow moving showers and storms. Most of the activity will develop over the interior portions of South Florida as both sea breezes will advance inland and collide in the interior. Model soundings continue to depict inverted-V setups and sufficient instability (SBCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) and mid-level lapse rates, indicating potential for a couple of robust updrafts to form and rapidly rise. As a result, storms will have the potential to become marginally severe especially in the form of downburst winds (DCAPE modeled around 1000 J/kg). Dry air in the mid-levels and the inverted-V setup below the 850mb level should minimize any hail threat, although can't completely rule out that one extremely robust updraft is able to develop and produce some small hail. Saturday looks to have a similar setup, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that should again be primarily focused over the interior with lower chances near the coastlines.

The ongoing heat episode will also continue as we end the week and move into the weekend. Heat indices are expected between roughly 105- 110F across the entire South Florida region. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued again for all zones today. More heat headlines are likely to be needed this weekend. General high temperatures will continue to be in the low to mid 90s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The disruption in the subtropical high pressure pattern will persist into next week with broad troughing encompassing the majority of the central U.S. and the Eastern Seaboard. Vorticity maxima will continue advecting across or in the vicinity of South Florida into next week as troughing across the country enhances under increased jet dynamics. Deep moisture will remain present each day with PWATs of 1.8-2.0+ inches and this will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through Monday. The most widespread activity is expected to occur over inland portions of South Florida as this will be where the sea breezes collide.

Heading into the middle of next week, a thicker Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will approach the region from the east. These SAL's contain very dry air especially in the mid-levels and upper levels of the atmosphere, which can inhibit deep convective growth and also minimize the widespread nature of showers and thunderstorms. Thus, rain chances decrease back into the scattered category next week which will be down from the numerous category in the days prior. There is no projected change in the overall flow pattern, so most of the showers and storms that do form will still be expected to form over the interior with lesser activity near the coasts.

Towards the end of next week, long range guidance is hinting at the possibility of a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) approaching from the east, but uncertainty is high on the potential development of this feature. Nevertheless, it will be something to monitor in the coming days. Heat will remain an ongoing concern in the extended period with daily high temperatures reaching the mid 90s. Some locations in the interior could see highs reach the upper 90s each day. Additionally, maximum heat index values will continue to reach the 105-110 degree range most days and may require more heat product issuances.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Light and variable winds early this morning becoming SE 5-10 kts, with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered thunderstorms possible mid afternoon through early evening which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are expected today across the Atlantic waters while the Gulf waters see winds shift to the west in the afternoon. For the weekend, these winds are expected to become variable at light to gentle speeds. Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of storms, seas will be 1-2 ft or less across all local waters for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Similar flow pattern to yesterday as flow will be generally southeasterly across Southeast Florida and southwesterly for Southwest Florida. Multiple fires continue to burn this morning in central Miami-Dade county, and again likely won't receive much assistance from rainfall today as the heaviest rainfall is likely to develop further inland over the Everglades and Big Cypress. Smoke is again expected to disperse more to the north and northwest with flow at the burn locations setting up out of the southeast. Smoke will continue to pose air quality issues primarily across Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Maximum dispersion indices will be in the generally good category both today and tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 93 79 92 78 / 30 20 70 20 West Kendall 94 77 93 76 / 30 20 80 20 Opa-Locka 94 79 94 78 / 30 20 70 30 Homestead 93 79 92 78 / 20 10 60 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 92 79 / 20 20 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 91 78 / 30 20 70 30 Pembroke Pines 97 80 95 80 / 30 20 70 30 West Palm Beach 93 79 92 78 / 40 30 70 40 Boca Raton 92 79 91 79 / 30 20 70 30 Naples 92 79 91 79 / 20 20 30 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.