textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 721 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Stronger wind gusts continue early this week along with hazardous marine and beach conditions for the next few days. Elevated seas and near Gale force winds will be observed.

- Drier conditions early this week with only some isolated weak shower activity possible across SE Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

As the previous frontal boundary stalls over the Florida Straits and potentially closer to Cuba, relatively drier weather is expected to return for early this week. The local 00Z sounding from yesterday evening showed that PWATs have decreased to 1.5 inches, and drier air is expected to continue to filter in where we could see PWATs below 1 inch for much of the South Florida forecast area. As a result, any showers that do form will be weak and shallow along with being widely scattered or isolated.

A strong pressure gradient persists across most of the Eastern US as a low offshore (around 1000mb MSLP) near the Mid-Atlantic sits between two separate surface ridges that are both forecast at 1030- 1040mb MSLP. This setup favors an ongoing strong pressure gradient with northeasterly winds maintaining 15-20 mph speeds on the regular and wind gusts to 25-30 mph. This type of pattern can lead to speed convergence (or frictional convergence) showers forming along the east coast metro areas, but as stated any of this activity should be weak and shallow as abundantly dry air is present in the mid-levels of the local atmosphere.

A similar setup continues on Tuesday, but the pressure gradient may relax just enough to decrease wind gusts by about 5 mph. Shallow isolated shower activity will thus be possible again on Tuesday mainly across Southeast Florida. High temperatures for the early week period are expected in the low to mid 80s for most areas, with portions of SW Florida reaching the upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

For the middle of end of this week, enhanced jet stream dynamics in the western US will enhance the development of a deep trough out west, which in return will strengthen the ridge over the central US and an upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. At the same time, guidance is hinting at a return in deeper moisture to average or slightly above average levels. With upper- level high pressure providing some forcing for ascent along with diurnal processes, rain chances will begin to increase again for the end of this week and upcoming weekend. Mid-level and upper- level flow for this time period will shift to the SW as the region will sit on the downstream side of the trough pattern, which will favor the highest rain chances across SE Florida between 30-50%. Uncertainty remains in how much rain could be seen, but currently this setup is not anticipated to result in the type of rainfall we saw this past weekend.

High temperatures for the middle to end of this week and into next weekend are expected in the low to mid 80s each day, with overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 60s for SW Florida to the upper 60s and low 70s for SE Florida.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 721 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Generally VFR through the period save for brief bouts of sub-VFR at terminals directly impacted by fast-moving SHRA. Gusty NE winds will become more NNE through the period as shower chances diminish tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Hazardous conditions will continue early this week as a strong pressure gradient is present and a system near the Mid-Atlantic continues to produce a large NE swell. Strong winds at 20-30 kts with gusts occasionally reaching near Gale force are expected today before starting to decrease mid-week. In addition, seas will remain 10-14 feet in the Atlantic today and 6-8 feet in the Gulf before slowly decreasing in the mid-week period. Seas are expected to remain at 8-10 feet in the Atlantic through at least Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday across all local waters, including Biscayne Bay and Lake Okeechobee.

BEACHES

Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues for all Atlantic coast beaches early this week as strong northeasterly winds and swell continue. In addition, large breaking waves of 7-9 feet in the Palm Beaches surf zone keeps a High Surf Advisory in effect through Tuesday, with the Broward beaches added to the advisory on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 85 75 84 71 / 20 20 10 0 West Kendall 85 73 84 70 / 10 20 10 0 Opa-Locka 86 74 85 71 / 20 20 10 0 Homestead 85 74 85 71 / 10 20 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 74 83 72 / 20 20 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 85 74 84 72 / 20 20 10 0 Pembroke Pines 85 73 84 70 / 20 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 84 73 83 71 / 20 20 0 0 Boca Raton 84 74 83 72 / 20 30 0 0 Naples 86 68 84 65 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ610-630-650- 651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.