textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 727 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Major coastal flooding is expected with each high tide cycle over the next couple of days. Inundated roadways will be likely for coastal areas. - Locally heavy rain may produce isolated minor urban flooding.

- Strong winds, with gusts over 35 mph are possible through Tuesday night.

- Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected through the middle of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

GOES water vapor imagery reveals one main synoptic feature that will be of particular interest to our forecast between today and tomorrow: a broad mid-level cyclonic rotation centered over the Bahamas. At the surface, an area of low pressure reading 1008 mb on the Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) latest surface analysis map associated with this upper-level disturbance is clearly identifiable via visible satellite imagery a little further north than where the axis of the disturbance aloft is located. The low-level cloud orientation pinpoints the exact location of the surface low to be just south of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas. The highest amount of moisture, according to satellite observations and SPC mesoanalysis, is on the outer peripheries of this broad circulation with PWATs on the order of 2.0-2.2".

Closer to home, South Florida remains far enough west to not be included in this area of deepest moisture as we are actually entrenched in an abundance of mid-level dry air that the northerly flow around the westernmost quadrant of this broad upper low has helped inject into our region. This is accurately reflected in not only the 12Z MFL sounding but also in regional ACARS sounding profiles with plenty of dry air reigning in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. A distinguishable saturated layer in the low levels roughly between the 950 and 700 mb height levels has also been made evident with a persisting northeasterly flow in these respective portions of the atmosphere continuing to transport moisture from the nearby Atlantic waters and Gulf Stream towards South Florida.

In terms of precipitation thus far today, we have not seen a strong deviation as to what we have been seeing over the past few days, which is periodic showers originating over the local Atlantic waters being transported towards mainland South Florida and falling apart soon thereafter. Surface-based instability has been hard to come by as of late with values only expected to climb into the 500-1000 J/Kg range today which, in addition to poor atmospheric dynamics (i.e. lackluster low to mid-level lapse rates, weak overall ascent with the base of low to mid-level vorticity maximum still located to the east over the Bahamas, and dry air aloft), will keep any occurring showers relatively low-topped and weak in nature. They will also continue to be quite transient in nature as a strong northeasterly wind component of anywhere between 20 and 30 knots (confirmed by ACARS and SPC mesoanalysis) remains in place both at the surface and extending to about 2km aloft. Due to this type of accelerated motion and meager precipitation rates, the overall flood threat will be low. Both the HREF LPMM and NBM show rainfall totals through Wednesday morning of 0.5-1" across our east coast metros with the potential for higher isolated amounts of 1-2" (75-90th percentiles) just due to these repeating rounds of occasionally heavier rain we could experience. The short-life expectancy of these showers as soon as they move inland coupled with the overall frequency at which they do so will allow the highest PoPs today (30-60%) to focus on the eastern half of South Florida. This also coincides and overlaps with our highest regional moisture content downstream of our low-level northeasterly transport with PWATs between 1.6-1.7" (between the 70- 80th percentiles).

ASCAT data shows impressive surface winds of 30-35 knots across both the local and offshore Atlantic waters, so it is still undoubtedly blustery out there with a locally tight gradient between a 1030 mb high (between the 88-90th percentiles for the date according to HREF guidance) centered over the Shenandoah Valley in Virginia and the aforementioned surface area of low pressure over the northern Bahamas (1008 mb is below the 10th percentile for the date according to HREF guidance) still present across the immediate vicinities of South Florida. As a result, the wind gusts we are expected to experience today of as high as 40 mph are forecast to be between the 70-80th percentiles for the date (according to the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index/EFI) across much of South Florida. No significant shift of tails (SOT) is represented, meaning the upper 10% (or the 90th-100th percentiles) of ensemble members is not overly optimistic on these wind gusts exceeding climatology by any notable margins. A wind advisory will remain in effect for our Atlantic coastal and metropolitan areas through this evening to address this.

For tomorrow, we are expecting the broad counterclockwise circulation associated with the aforementioned upper low over the Bahamas to shift northward while its low to mid-level vorticity maximum splits off to the west towards the proximity of South Florida and the Florida Straits in tandem with the associated surface low (this solution is supported by ensemble i.e GEFS and GEPS guidance). This will act to advect a little more moisture in our direction (on that western periphery of the low to mid-level perturbation where we have a peak in moisture content today as previously discussed) and consequently increase our areal PWATs to the 1.8-2.0" range (85-95th percentiles). This higher moisture content, in addition to higher amounts of SBCAPE (surfaced-based CAPE) of 1000-2000 J/Kg in association with slightly warmer 2-m temperatures and higher dew points (which will be explained in the latter portions of this discussion) and a bit more upper-level support/ascent with the approach of a 700-850mb vorticity max will allow us to see a slightly higher rainfall footprint across South Florida.

With our northeasterly surface flow weakening (due to the decoupling of our surface low and thus reducing the overall pressure gradient) and becoming more east-northeasterly on Wednesday as we will be positioned on the northern fringe of the cyclonic circulation associated with the approaching surface low, we will deviate from this overall setup of coastal convergence and seemingly return to more of a summertime-type of regime with the highest convective coverage following the general flow of wind and in this case, favoring the interior portions of South Florida and the Everglades (PoPs of 30-50%). Meanwhile, the east coast will continue to see nagging, periodic showers as they move in from the Atlantic throughout the day (PoPs of 30-40%). Despite the higher precip coverage across South Florida, guidance is actually trending lower with overall QPF tomorrow with the 50th percentile only showing up to about a quarter-inch across our region through 12Z Thursday. The reasoning is that the atmosphere will still not be overly conducive for heavy rainfall, with the upper echelon of guidance (75th-90th percentiles) showing isolated precip maxima of 1-2" along the east coast where showers will be moving in more frequently from the Atlantic and coming from a more unstable and moist marine environment, thus potentially packing some heavier rainfall rates. Same as today, exceptionally warm 500 mb temperatures for this time of year of -4 to -5C (between the 90th and 95th percentiles), unexciting low to mid-level lapse rates, and some lingering mid- level dry air (as shown in forecast soundings) should allow most showers we see on Wednesday to be weak and rather uneventful. Due to the freezing level being at around 16,000 feet and co-located with this stout dry layer (and the vertical structure of these showers to not be all that eye-popping), am expecting the lightning risk to not be completely nullified, but to be relatively low (20-30% of thunderstorms). Although winds will weakening, it will remain breezy with peak gusts still forecast to reach 25-35 mph tomorrow.

High temperatures today will once again be around normal for this time of year in the low to mid 80s, but will be getting a few degrees warmer than average on Wednesday with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s to near 90 degrees across Southwest Florida with broad upper-level ridging beginning to build over our region from the west. With this, expect the humidity to also slowly creep up with dew points ranging between the upper 60s and mid 70s across South Florida today climbing into the mid to upper 70s tomorrow. Max heat indices will be reaching the mid to upper 90s, as a result. No need for this soupy type of atmosphere in late October, although those ghouly witches and their formulaic brews will surely have no problem with it.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

This forecast features no tricks, but honestly, not too much in the form of treats either as Halloween in South Florida is forecast to be close to normal for this time of year. Warm daytime temperatures will drop into the upper 70s to low 80s during the evening hours, with a 30-50% chance of coastal showers along the east coast of South Florida and a light but not spooky easterly breeze. But before I haunt you any further with my forecast, let's rewind back to the beginning of the extended period.

The atmospheric reign of the cut-off low that has resided to our east over the northwestern Bahamas and western Atlantic waters over the last several days will finally conclude. While zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the southeastern United States, a developing mid-level ridge across the southern Gulf will slide eastward during the second half of the week, resulting in increasing geopotential heights, 500mb temperatures above the 90-95th percentile, and a reduction in 500mb wind speeds out of the northwest. At the surface, the weak area of surface low vorticity is forecast continue to meander westward across the region, increasingly decoupled from the departing cut-off low. An associated frontal boundary, increasingly diffuse and meager in nature, will also retrograde across the region during the second half of the week. While this boundary will gradually degrade, the envelope of deeper atmospheric moisture will remain across the region with precipitable water values in the 80th-90th percentile forecast to remain draped across the region. The pressure gradient that has kept a persistent breeze across the region will finally abate with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across most of South Florida, with even some low 90s possible across inland southwestern Florida through the upcoming weekend. While winds will continue to lessen across the region, there will be enough of an easterly wind component to create a minor temperature gradient across the region with the warmest overnight temperatures forecast along the east coast and warmest daytime temperatures across inland southwestern Florida as oceanic influences keep temperatures warmer overnight but cooler during the day. Warm 500mb temperatures and ridging aloft will keep convection fairly benign in nature through the first half of the weekend with convection mainly focusing across inland southwestern Florida on the confluence of a stronger Atlantic sea- breeze and weaker Gulf breeze.

Mid-level ridging across our region is forecast to erode during the second half of the weekend into early next week as a lobe of mid- level vorticity slides eastward across the southeastern United States in tandem with a developing surface low and frontal boundary. Ample warm air and moisture advection is forecast to occur mainly to the north of our region during this time frame, with the best atmospheric dynamics and ascent over the northern half of the Florida Peninsula and remainder of the southeastern United States. That being said, a cooling of 500mb temperatures and a more southerly component to surface winds could focus a higher chance of convection across inland South Florida on Sunday as moisture lifts northwards in the expansive warm sector of the system to our north. Beyond early next week, ensemble and deterministic guidance have a great variety of potential forecast solutions as the southern stream remains active across the southern United States. In the near term however, it looks like South Florida will have to wait longer for the treat of a substantial cold front and pumpkin spice conditions.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Persistent, fast moving scattered showers and a strong NE flow has resulted in TEMPO groups with MVFR conditions for all eastern sites. Rain chances and wind gusts appear to dissipate into Wednesday morning; however, MVFR ceilings will persist for all eastern terminals overnight. NE gusty conditions should pick up throughout Wednesday as a few scattered showers move onshore into the afternoon. For APF, NE gusts should weaken into Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue through at least mid-week as strong northeasterly winds persist across the local waters. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected through tonight across the Atlantic waters, where a Gale Warning remains in effect. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue across the Gulf waters and Lake Okeechobee through at least Wednesday, with the Gale Warning becoming a Small Craft Advisory in the Atlantic on Tuesday night. Seas are forecast at 5 to 8 feet in the Gulf today and 10 to 14 feet across the Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms are also expected to develop across the Atlantic waters over the next several days. These hazardous conditions should gradually improve toward the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A high risk of rip currents will persist for all Atlantic beaches through at least mid-week period. Dangerous surf heights of 8 to 11 feet are expected to linger for the Palm Beaches through Wednesday.

Furthermore, strong onshore wind flow and high seas may combine with King Tides to increase the threat of coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast. Today and tomorrow have the highest chances for reaching major flood stage, with moderate flooding otherwise occurring at minimum. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect along the Atlantic coast through Wednesday evening due to the potential for significant coastal flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 86 76 86 / 60 50 40 30 West Kendall 75 86 75 87 / 50 40 20 30 Opa-Locka 75 86 75 87 / 60 50 40 30 Homestead 75 86 75 87 / 60 40 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 76 84 76 85 / 70 60 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 76 85 76 86 / 70 60 50 40 Pembroke Pines 75 86 75 87 / 60 50 50 30 West Palm Beach 75 84 75 85 / 70 40 40 40 Boca Raton 76 84 76 85 / 60 50 40 40 Naples 72 87 73 87 / 30 30 10 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168- 172-173.

Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ610.

Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630- 650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.