textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Low relative humidity levels are expected for the next couple of days which may result in an enhanced fire risk. - A high risk of rip currents will continue today for the Palm Beach county beaches, and a moderate risk for Broward and Miami-Dade beaches.

- Temperatures continue to gradually warm up through the next several days.

UPDATE

Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Went on the lower end of guidance for dewpoints today and tomorrow. Also lowered overnight temps over interior SW FL, thinking that we'll likely see some 40s again early tomorrow morning, while remaining milder closer to the coasts. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 403 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Overall synoptic pattern will continue to be dominated by sfc and upper level ridging through the next couple of days. Model and MFL 00Z sounding show PWATs in the 0.6-0.8" range and a very dry airmass above 1 km. With the ridge axis right over the state, expect current dry conditions to continue.

Dew points continue to drop well below normals, and NBM remains slow to react to the trend of the past 48 hours. Previous shift worked on adjusting Td/RH grids to better reflect the lower values, especially over the lake region and the Gulf areas where RHs are expected in the upper 20s-low 30s. Same adjustments will continue to be applied for this forecast package in order to better reflect current observations and trends.

With the ridge remaining over the area, pressure gradients across SoFlo will be very weak and keeping winds generally light or even calm at times. The synoptic setup will continue to support benign weather conditions through early this week, with POPs remaining in single digits each day.

The lack of cloud cover will allow for efficient daytime heating, with models now pushing afternoon highs today into the low-mid 80s for the east coast, and mid-upper 80s for interior and west coast areas.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 403 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Global models show good agreement in pushing the high over the area further to our S/SE as a trough/low complex moving across the E CONUS drags an associated frontal boundary into the northern portions of the state by Tuesday.

Unfortunately for those hoping to see a significant relief from the ongoing drought conditions, model solutions still bring a very weak frontal boundary across the state. The limited enhanced moisture ahead of the front seems to remain just north of the Lake region in the late Tuesday-early Wednesday time frame, with even NBM now depicting lower POPs each day (max values in the 10-20 percent range) over the northern-most portions of SoFlo. Therefore, the dry trend should continue through the rest of the week with the main adjustment being a modest increase in humidity for the second half of the work week.

Persisting ridging across the region will keep a wind profile on the weaker side each day, with flow becoming light and variable at times. Afternoon temps are expected keep reaching the mid-upper 80s, and even a few spots touching the low 90s by Friday afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Light ESE winds expected this afternoon, with a WNW breeze at APF. Nearly calm winds expected overnight into early Monday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 403 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Generally light and variable flow will prevail over the coastal waters during the next several days, with benign boating conditions as high pressure sits over the area. Chances for showers will remain low through the forecast period.

BEACHES

Issued at 403 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A high risk of rip currents continues today for the Palm Beach county beaches. A moderate risk is expected at all Broward and Miami-Dade beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 403 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Very low RH values are expected across South Florida today and Monday. Min RH values over inland South FL will fall to 25-35 percent each afternoon, resulting in enhanced fire wx risk during the next couple of days. A reminder that Glades, Hendry, and Collier counties remain under county- enacted burn bans. Please contact your specific county government for details.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 62 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 56 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 61 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 61 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 62 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 62 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 62 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 60 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 61 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 60 81 59 82 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.