textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 659 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire.

- Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Deep-layer ridging remains in tact at least through Thursday as it continues to hold over the Southeast U.S. while also further amplifying. 500mb heights will be in the 97-99th percentile for these dates, showing just how strong this ridge is. The drier air mass also holds steady, maintaining a dry and tranquil weather pattern across the region. Easterly winds around the high pressure will be a little weaker today and tomorrow as the pressure gradient begins to relax, but still will be relatively breezy with gusts to around 20-30 mph. Daytime high temperatures will continue to reach the low 80s for the east coast metro and upper 80s to near 90 for the Gulf coast region today as the easterly regime favors warmer temps for the Gulf region during the day and cooler at night. Highs then climb to near 90 for Gulf coast metro areas on Thursday with low to mid 80s highs for the east coast metro.

We continue to monitor the Newman Wildfire in Collier County as well. Until its fully controlled, breezy easterly winds will allow for smoke to continue to disperse fairly quickly to the point where it's less controllable. The easterly winds will push smoke towards the Gulf shore and other areas in the vicinity. As a result of this, local air quality issues are likely and can impact sensitive groups as firefighters continue to work on mitigating the fire. Additionally, smoke can contribute to lower visibilities on roadways and make driving conditions less safe in certain areas. Caution is advised when driving on the roadways until the fire is fully controlled, and vulnerable populations should consider limiting time outdoors.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Long term ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. on Friday with the shortwave attempting to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just be weakened or 'flattened out' in a sense. As the shortwave trough then advects offshore, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces some downstream vorticity and a frontal boundary southwards towards northern Florida and simultaneously weakens the ridging pattern. Moisture would also be expected to increase as the front moves southwards. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 90-95th percentile through Sunday morning, hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather through the first half of the weekend despite incoming low pressure trying to advect into the area. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and a slight increase in moisture availability as some modest moisture advection occurs from a low in the Caribbean. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida and the ridge finally loses its strength, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations.

Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time still favor drier solutions for this weekend and into Monday next week, and even these few wetter solutions for the Sat-Mon time frame do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity returning at the beginning of next week on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, ensembles do highlight a much more active pattern being possible as we approach the middle of next week, but uncertainty remains high on that given its at the end of the forecast period.

High temperatures will continue to rise each day through this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. As the frontal boundary then works southwards and washes out through the area early next week, a cool down back to more normal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s is possible.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Easterly winds 5-10 kts this morning increase to 10-15 kts this afternoon. A westerly Gulf breeze will develop at APF this afternoon. SCT to BKN ceilings around 4k ft today.

MARINE

Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A moderate breeze will be in place across the Atlantic waters through the end of this week with a gentle breeze in the Gulf waters. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Seas fall a bit further in the Atlantic today to 2-4 feet and should remain in this range for the rest of the week while Gulf seas remain at 1-2 feet or less.

BEACHES

Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues through at least Thursday this week. While this risk may decrease a bit for Friday and this weekend, an elevated risk may still persist into the weekend as onshore flow continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 69 82 71 / 0 0 10 0 West Kendall 82 65 84 67 / 0 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 82 68 83 70 / 0 0 10 0 Homestead 81 69 82 71 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 70 80 71 / 0 0 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 79 69 80 71 / 0 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 83 70 85 71 / 0 0 10 0 West Palm Beach 79 67 81 69 / 0 0 10 0 Boca Raton 79 69 80 71 / 0 0 10 0 Naples 85 64 85 66 / 0 0 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.