textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 712 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase through the middle of the week, with the highest chances occurring over the Lake Okeechobee region as well as the east coast metro areas. - High rainfall rates combined with the possibility of multiple rounds of heavy downpours could increase the potential of localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas.

- Minor coastal flooding will return as early as the middle of the week and this could develop during each high tide cycle through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend due to the next round of King Tides.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Rather broad mid level troughing will remain in place across the Southeast as well as most of the Florida Peninsula today into Wednesday. This will cause mid level ridging to be shunted off into the western Atlantic during this time frame. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will continue to slowly push southeastward across the northern Gulf Coast and into Northern Florida today. This front will stall out somewhere over Central Florida heading into Wednesday. Surface level winds will remain rather light and sea breeze driven today, however, as the front pushes closer to the region on Wednesday, a deeper south to southwesterly wind flow will set up not only at the surface, but aloft as well. This wind profile will bring deep tropical moisture into the region throughout the atmospheric column as PWATs rise and generally range between 2.2 and 2.4 inches across a good portion of South Florida through the middle of the week.

While shower and thunderstorm activity will be more sea breeze driven today and more scattered in coverage, as the front pushes closer to the region on Wednesday before stalling out just to the north, convective coverage will become more widespread across South Florida. Due to the south to southwesterly wind flow setting up across the region, the east coast sea breeze will remain pinned over the metro areas today, and even moreso on Wednesday. This in combination with the abundance of moisture in place will allow for the potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours to take place over the east coast metro areas as well as the Lake Okeechobee region during this time frame. With the east coast metro areas already saturated from previous heavy rainfall, any additional heavy rain will add to the increased potential of localized flooding this afternoon through Wednesday.

High temperatures today will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most of the region. Temperatures on Wednesday may may be a few degrees cooler due to an increase in cloud cover and more widespread rainfall over South Florida.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Moving into the second half of the week, the broad mid level trough will remain nearby on Thursday, however, mid level ridging in the western Atlantic will start to build closer to South Florida heading into Friday. At the surface, the stalled out frontal boundary will linger close to the region over Central Florida before slowly trying to lift back northward heading into Friday. This would be in response to a broad area of low pressure trying to develop in the Southwestern Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center gives this broad area of low pressure a high chance (80%) of development over the next 48 hours as it slowly drifts east northeastward during this time frame. With the front remaining close by on Thursday, deep tropical moisture will still continue to advect into the region, keeping enhanced rainfall chances in place over most of the area. The potential for localized flooding will also remain in place especially along and north of Alligator alley which will be closer to the front during this time frame.

The forecast heading into Friday and the first part of the weekend still remains uncertain as the broad area of low pressure currently in the southwestern Gulf will ultimately play a role in lifting the stalled frontal boundary further north of the region. The latest global and ensemble guidance suite remain in disagreement in regards to timing and intensity of this area of low pressure as it gradually pulls northward towards the central Gulf Coast states for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. If the low is slower to move north northeastward, the front could remain closer to the region drawing in additional deep layer moisture for showers and thunderstorms to develop on Friday and Saturday. In addition to this, the developing system could draw up some more moisture from the Carribean into South Florida during this time frame. With all of these variables in place for Friday and Saturday, the latest forecast keeps higher end chances of showers and thunderstorms over the region during this time frame. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will rise into the upper 80s to around 90 across most of the region.

Guidance does show some signals of a pattern change heading towards the second half of the weekend and into early next week as mid level ridging strengthens over the western Atlantic and tries to build over the Florida Peninsula. This could introduce some drier air into the region during this time frame bringing the chances of showers and thunderstorms back to a typical late wet season type pattern with increased southeasterly wind flow. The latest forecast reflects this and keeps the higher chances of showers and thunderstorms confined to interior locations as well as Southwestern Florida. High temperatures look to be near or slightly above climatological normals during this time frame with ridging building back into the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 712 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours. Light and variable winds early this morning will increase out of the SSE after 17Z across the east coast terminals. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop after 17-18z and could bring periods of MVFR or IFR conditions along with gusty and erratic winds to the east coast terminals later this afternoon. At KAPF, light winds this morning will increase out of the SW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Increasing SHRA/TS activity is possible at KAPF overnight tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A light to gentle south to southwesterly wind flow will develop across most of the local waters and will remain in place through the middle of the week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 feet or less today, however, they will gradually increase and range between 3 to 5 feet on Wednesday as a northeasterly swell develops. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase through the middle of the week across all local waters as a frontal boundary stalls out to the north of the region.

BEACHES

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Minor coastal flooding could develop as early as the middle of the week across the coastal areas of South Florida and this could continue during each high tide cycle through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. This is due to the next round of King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon. At the same time, the rip current risk will gradually increase across the Palm Beaches during the middle to latter portion of the week due to a developing northeasterly swell.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 89 77 89 76 / 40 30 70 30 West Kendall 89 76 89 75 / 40 20 70 30 Opa-Locka 90 77 90 76 / 50 30 80 40 Homestead 89 77 89 77 / 30 20 60 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 76 89 75 / 40 40 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 89 76 89 76 / 50 40 80 50 Pembroke Pines 89 76 89 75 / 40 30 80 40 West Palm Beach 89 74 89 74 / 60 50 80 60 Boca Raton 89 75 89 75 / 50 40 80 60 Naples 87 76 86 75 / 30 50 80 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.