textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1048 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today. A few storms may become strong to severe. - South Florida is under a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall today. Downpours with high rainfall rates could lead to localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

- High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon through most of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Not a lot of changes to forecast philosophy for the short term with U/L high pressure over the SE CONUS gradually migrating eastward during the next couple of days, while the W Atl sfc ridge axis remains lingering just north of the Florida peninsula. This synoptic scenario will keep a generally E/SE wind regime in place through the work week, and continuing moisture advection across SoFlo.

Models show the moist tropical air mass bringing high chances of rain each day, with sounding and model PWATs above 2 inches, and CAPE/MUCAPE values in the 2-3K J/Kg range. Additionally, a TUTT feature will continue track northward across the peninsula, which will further enhance overall instability and chances for thunderstorms. Max POPs remain in the 70-80% range each day, especially during the afternoon/early evening hours. Some storms may become strong, with a few isolated severe cells possible. Main hazards will be frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain.

Localized flooding remains a key concern, especially over urban areas prone to flooding. Latest Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Excessive Rainfall Outlook keeps the Florida peninsula under a Marginal Risk (at least 5% chance) today.

High temperatures are expected to again hit the low-mid 90s, along with peak heat index values in the 105-110F range.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1048 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A TUTT feature will move further eastward and away form the state by mid week, while a sfc frontal boundary moves across the SE CONUS. Models also agree in keeping the W Atl ridge axis lingering around the SE Atl Seaboard, just north of the state through the long term. This will keep the prevailing E/SE flow in place across SoFlo, with deep-layered moisture advection persisting during the long term.

Model PWATs keep values above seasonal normals, mainly around or above 2" through the rest of the week, which will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon. Best chances for strong convection will again happen with the onset of the East coast sea breeze, first along the Atlantic metro areas early in the afternoon, then pushing inland during the late afternoon hours. Hazards will include gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably hot each day, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows should remain in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 745 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the morning. Scattered showers will develop along the sea breezes in the afternoon, so have included VCTS and PROB30s for all sites. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty winds may be observed under any thunderstorm. Winds will be mainly out of the ESE for all eastern locations, while a Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF.

MARINE

Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light to moderate east-southeasterly winds are expected to prevail across most of the local marine zones through the forecast period. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become more southwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each day. Gusty and erratic winds, along with brief periods of rough seas, will be possible in and around thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 91 80 91 81 / 60 30 70 30 West Kendall 91 77 91 79 / 70 30 70 20 Opa-Locka 92 80 92 79 / 70 30 80 30 Homestead 91 79 91 79 / 60 30 70 30 Fort Lauderdale 90 79 90 80 / 60 30 80 40 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 91 81 / 70 40 80 40 Pembroke Pines 91 79 91 80 / 70 30 80 30 West Palm Beach 91 78 91 79 / 70 40 70 30 Boca Raton 90 79 90 79 / 60 50 80 30 Naples 91 76 90 77 / 50 40 70 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.