textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- A few showers are possible today, especially along the immediate Gulf coast or just offshore. Slow moving showers could result in pockets of beneficial heavy rainfall.

- High Rip Current Risk along Atlantic beaches this week.

- Hazardous conditions for small craft across Atlantic waters.

UPDATE

Issued at 1150 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Mesoanalysis early this afternoon indicates a weather regime across South Florida indicative of being sited on the far southern periphery of surface ridging as mid-level ridging gradually builds aloft. With the lack of synoptic forcing aloft, mesoscale phenomena and boundaries will serve as the foci for afternoon convection today. With the stronger easterly flow, a pinned Gulf sea-breeze and residual low level boundary moisture (Precipitable water values of 1.2 to 1.4) will support the development of slow moving shower activity pinned along the gulf breeze. 12z LPMM ensemble guidance hints at the potential of localized swaths of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall along the immediate gulf coast or just offshore. Any higher rainfall totals would be welcome as the region remains in a severe to extreme drought.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1207 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Residual moisture from a lingering frontal boundary remains established over the region, as high pressure becomes more established over the eastern CONUS. This will lead to a developing northeasterly flow across the area with wind speeds increasing through the afternoon today. With residual moisture in place and breezy northeasterly flow, quick moving coastal showers will be possible throughout the short term along the east coast. With lack of significant synoptic forcing, thunderstorm activity should remain minimal however a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out, especially over the warm gulfstream waters.

High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s today and tomorrow with overnight lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1207 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

The pattern through the long term period remains largely unchanged each day. Breezy east-northeast flow continues through the majority of the week as the surface pressure gradient remains tight. There will be a chance (30-40%) for showers each day through the period as modest moisture remains (PWATs 1.2-1.3 inches) with highest chances across local Atlantic waters and along the immediate east coast. Surface flow veers more easterly towards the end of the week as surface high pressure across the western Atlantic builds westward.

High temperatures should remain in the low 80s for east coast metro areas, however due to the long duration easterly flow, a warming trend is expected for interior and Southwest Florida and highs could approach the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the work-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Easterly flow at all terminals today with the exception of a Gulf breeze at KAPF between 19-21z. SHRA and perhaps an isolated TSRA will be possible near or just offshore of KAPF this afternoon and evening before activity quiets down overnight. Easterly winds will remain across the eastern half of the region, enhancing after sunrise on Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 1207 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Expect a scattering of showers and isolated thunderstorms each day and night. High pressure will spread across the Southeast this week and a strong easterly flow regime will become established. This will likely spread Small Craft Advisory conditions across the outer Atlantic waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 1207 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Increasing northeasterly flow will lead to a high risk of rip currents for all Southeast Florida beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 69 80 70 81 / 20 20 20 30 West Kendall 65 82 67 83 / 10 20 20 30 Opa-Locka 68 82 69 83 / 20 30 20 30 Homestead 69 81 70 83 / 20 20 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 68 79 70 80 / 20 20 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 69 79 70 80 / 30 20 20 30 Pembroke Pines 68 83 70 83 / 20 30 20 30 West Palm Beach 68 79 69 80 / 30 20 20 20 Boca Raton 68 80 69 81 / 30 20 30 30 Naples 65 84 66 85 / 40 30 10 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.