textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Areas of Dense Fog will develop across the interior as well as Southwest Florida early this morning, and then again late tonight into early Sunday morning. - Very warm temperatures will continue across South Florida today and into a good portion of Sunday. - A cold front will push through the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening increasing the chances of showers during this time frame. Much colder and drier conditions will develop early next week behind the front.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 126 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Mid level ridging will continue to slide further into the western Atlantic today and South Florida will remain on the western periphery of the ridge throughout most of the day. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift into the western Atlantic, however, it will still remain close enough to be the main synoptic feature in the weather pattern across South Florida today. The mid level ridge in combination with surface high pressure will keep mainly dry conditions in place along with very warm temperatures this afternoon. High temperatures rise into the lower 80s along the coasts, while mid to upper 80s will be common across the interior as well as the Lake Okeechobee region.

Conditions will once again be favorable for areas of fog to develop early this morning, and then again late tonight into early Sunday morning across the interior areas and Southwest Florida as light and variable winds remain in place along with a mainly clear sky. Some of this fog will become dense especially across Southwest Florida as well as the Lake Okeechobee region reducing visibility to a quarter of a mile or less in spots. Any fog that does develop will gradually lift shortly after sunrise this morning, and then again on Sunday morning. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 50s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to the lower to mid 60s along the east and west coast.

On Sunday, a significant pattern change will be taking place as a deepening mid level low over the Great Lakes region will dive southeastward into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states as the day progresses. Amplifying mid level troughing will dig further across the Southeast and into Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the surface, an area of low pressure off of the North Carolina coastline will rapidly intensify as it pushes northeastward into the Atlantic as the day progresses. A cold front associated with this system will extend southwestward and will gradually push across the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. As the front approaches and moves through South Florida, chances of showers will increase from northwest to southeast on Sunday afternoon. Chances of thunderstorm develop still look to remain rather limited as the best dynamics and instability race off well to the northeast of the region closer to the developing low. However, the front may provide just enough lift to spark off a thunderstorm or two especially over the local waters and the Lake Okeechobee region as it will be moving through during peak diurnal heating. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s across the eastern half of the region on Sunday. Locations west of Lake Okeechobee as well as the Southwest Florida coast will see high temperatures rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s as the front will push through those locations earlier in the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 126 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Potent mid level troughing will remain in place over the region through the early portion of next week. At the surface, a strong and large area of high pressure centered well off to the northwest over the Northern Plains will begin to build into the region behind the departing cold front on Sunday night. This area of high pressure will rapidly dive southeastward towards the Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula as the early portion of the week progresses. The pressure gradient will rapidly tighten on Sunday night into Monday allowing for a rather strong and gusty northwesterly wind flow to set up during this time frame as well as into first part of Tuesday. This will also allow for strong cold and dry air advection to take place area wide across the region. Winds will gradually diminsh as Tuesday progresses as the center of the strong high pressure pushes closer to the region.

As the cold air advection begins, low temperatures on Monday morning will drop into the lower 40s across the Lake Okeechobee region while mid to upper 40s will be common elsewhere. When the wind is factored in, wind chill values will generally range from the lower to mid 30s across interior portions of Southwest Florida while upper 30s and lower to mid 40s will be common elsewhere. Strong cold air advection keeps high temperatures down on Monday as they will only reach the lower 60s along and north of Alligator Alley. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 60s south of Alligator Alley during this time frame. Monday night into Tuesday morning still looks to be the coldest time period of the week as low temperatures bottom out into the lower 30s west of Lake Okeechobee and interior portions of Southwest Florida. Lows in the mid to upper 30s will be common across the rest of the interior portions of South Florida, while the lower 40s will be common across the east coast metro areas as well as the Southwest Florida coastline. Wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s will be in place west of Lake Okeechobee as well as interior portions of Southwest Florida Monday night into Tuesday morning, while wind chill values in lower to mid 30s will be common across the rest of the interior. Wind chill values in the upper 30s and lower 40s will be common across the east coast metro areas during this time frame. As cold air advection continues into Tuesday, high temperatures will still remain in the lower 60s north of Alligator Alley and they will rise into the mid to upper 60s along and south of Alligator Alley.

While Wednesday morning will feature one more chilly start, high pressure will gradually shift into the western Atlantic which will allow for the surface wind flow to veer and gradually become south southeasterly as the day progresses. While generally dry conditions will remain in place through the middle and end of the week, the veering wind flow will start a moderating trend in temperatures as highs on Wednesday will rebound into the lower 70s along the coasts, while mid to upper 70s will be common across the interior and Lake Okeechobee region. This moderating trend in temperatures will continue through the second half of the week as temperatures will return closer to, or even slightly above climatological normals during this time frame.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

SE winds around 8-10 kts across the east coast terminals this afternoon. At KAPF, winds increase out of the SW to around 10 kts this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Another night of light and variable flow tonight, with a chance for dense fog developing into early Sunday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 126 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

A gentle to moderate south to southeasterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the local waters today. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds will become south southwest this afternoon as a Gulf Breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 to 3 feet today while seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less. During the second half of the weekend, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop on Sunday afternoon out ahead of an approaching cold front. Behind the front, hazardous marine conditions will be possible across all local waters late Sunday afternoon through early next week as winds and seas rapidly increase.

BEACHES

Issued at 126 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place today across the Palm beaches while a moderate risk of rip currents continues across the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

A much cooler and drier air mass will push into the region early next week behind a departing cold front. Minimum relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent will be common across most of South Florida on Monday and Tuesday afternoon. With a breezy northwesterly wind flow setting up on Monday, winds will be near critical thresholds during this time frame, so fire weather headlines may be needed. Regardless, the low relative humidity values combined with the ongoing drought across the region will result in an elevated fire threat early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 65 86 49 65 / 0 30 20 0 West Kendall 60 87 45 66 / 0 30 10 0 Opa-Locka 64 87 48 65 / 0 30 20 0 Homestead 63 86 48 67 / 0 20 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 64 85 48 64 / 0 40 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 65 86 48 63 / 0 50 20 0 Pembroke Pines 64 87 48 66 / 0 40 20 0 West Palm Beach 63 86 46 63 / 0 60 10 0 Boca Raton 63 86 46 63 / 0 60 20 0 Naples 62 77 46 62 / 0 60 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ069.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.