textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1257 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Flood watch remains in effect for all of South Florida as the potential for additional heavy rainfall and flooding continues.

- Minor to Moderate coastal flooding expected during times of high tide.

- Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast.

MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL

Issued at 1202 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The aforementioned shortwave across the eastern Gulf continues to enhance upper level divergence across South Florida early this afternoon, enhancing low level convergence and facilitating a gradual spatial expansion of shower and thunderstorm activity across the region. 17z Mesoanalysis in tandem with GOES east imagery indicates a corridor of enhanced surface heating across the southeastern half of the Florida Peninsula, resulting in the development of a differential heating boundary across the peninsula with the influence of sprawling cold pools, 1) across southwestern Florida and the 2) second more pronounced cold pool just north of Lake Okeechobee and across the majority of the Treasure Coast. Across southeastern Florida, diurnal heating has resulted in temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a lull in activity across the majority of metro Miami-Dade and Broward counties. SBCAPE and MUCAPE analysis indicates enough instability remains in the low level boundary layer for additional convection along and to the south of mesoscale boundaries with a foci in near-term activity across Palm Beach County and the Lake Okeechobee region. While 500mb flow is out of a more southerly component today, as opposed to the inverse 1km (easterly)/6km (westerly) orientation that led to efficient coastal convergence (and a high- end maxima of 15+" of rainfall across Palm Beach County) yesterday, slow movement of showers and thunderstorms and upstream growth (backbuilding) could re- aggravate urban flooding across areas that remain completely saturated/inundated from a soil moisture perspective. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of South Florida through 7PM this evening with a close eye being kept on the latest trends with radar coverage and rainfall totals as the afternoon progresses for any need of watch extension.

Recent ACARS soundings from FLL/MIA depict some residual CIN and drier air in the vertical column that may act to suppress more robust convection across metro Miami-Dade and Broward in the near term. This residual inhibition and drier air in the column may be largely responsible for the break in activity that has been observed for much of today across most east coast locales. Although that trend has recently come to a close across northern and central Palm Beach County where convection continues to back- build along locales that certainly don't need any additional precipitation. Given the forcing aloft and the pocket of residual instability across these areas that have received ample surface heating, additional showers and thunderstorms could still materialize across the eastern half of South Florida for the remainder of today. The 12z HREF LPMM has a widespread 1-2" across most of the northeastern half of South Florida through 7am on Wednesday. The threat of isolated higher rainfall amounts greater than 3-5" inches remains possible along the east coast metro and the Weather Prediction Center maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for the entire east coast of South Florida for the remainder of today. Short fused Flood Advisories and Flash Flood Warnings may be needed if heavy rainfall falls over areas that received several inches of rainfall within the past 24 hours.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water vapor imagery and model analysis fields show an elongated shortwave extending from the southeast Gulf, through the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic where it connects in with the northern stream flow. There's very little surface reflection to this upper low, with the latest WPC surface analysis depicting high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic/NW Atlantic, with its western reaches covering much of the eastern CONUS. Locally, we remain under easterly flow at the base of the ridge with a coastal trough still established down the east coast of Florida. Additionally, an MCV is likely still present across Central Florida as a result of yesterday's storms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

We enter another very low predictability period today with the environment primed to produce more heavy rainfall should a surface focus emerge. CAMs have struggled to identify the ongoing precip pattern and thus low confidence exists regarding their future predictions. Some of the CAMs that at least more closely resemble the ongoing pattern would suggest banding features along the east coast where upslope flow coincides with mesoscale boundaries through mid-afternoon. They also depict convection in the SE Gulf, associated with the upper low, moving across south Florida through the afternoon and evening. As the storms from the Gulf reach the east coast, a period of slow moving storms producing heavy rainfall will be possible. Forecast rain amounts look very similar to yesterday, with common amounts of 1 to 3 inches where showers and storms occur. Scattered locations around south Florida may see closer to 3 to 5 inches of rain. The more isolated high end amounts have the potential to peak around 6 to 9 inches. These amounts could accumulate rather quickly, on the order of 2 to 4 hours. The Flood Watch will continue through today and has been expanded over all of South Florida due to low confidence in where the heaviest rain will setup.

As the base of the elongated trough cuts off over the SE Gulf today, it will be slow to move out of the region and likely have to wait for an approaching northern stream frontal system to nudge it through south Florida. This will likely mean a continued wet pattern through Tuesday. However, the good news is that dry mid- level air, associated with the part of the shortwave that will advect into the Atlantic, may result in lower PWATs and less forcing. This means an overall lower top-end to expected rain amounts. Expect common rainfall amounts on Tuesday closer to 1-2" with localized higher amounts in the 2-4" range. Not nothing, but better than Sunday and Today. It also look as though most of the rainfall on Tuesday will be confined to the east coast.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

With the aforementioned mid-week frontal system, models are struggling with whether the shortwave cuts off and loses latitude from the northern stream. In solutions where it cuts off the shortwave it has a much slower progression across the CONUS. This will ultimately influence when/if we get frontal passage across south Florida late this week. Regardless, models tend to keep the frontal passage pretty dry, this far south, and also have very little signal for any anomalous sensible weather fields in the extended range.

The slow nudge of the frontal system will displace the ridge axis further north. This will remove the direct easterly component and calm winds a bit. Both of these results mean that we'll probably have less precipitation across south Florida from mid-week onward.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Increasing SHRA/TSRA may result in bouts of sub MVFR cigs/vis at terminals this afternoon/evening. Gusty erratic winds may occur with any SHRA/TSRA that directly impacts a terminal. Winds are forecast to lessen after sunset with a continuation of SHRA/TSRA across the region through the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters through the early portion of the week as a fresh to strong easterly breeze remains in place combined with a lingering northeasterly swell. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh easterly breeze will continue today before gradually starting to diminish on Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across all local waters through the early portion of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The onshore flow and elevated winds and seas will keep a High Risk for rip currents across Atlantic beaches well into this week. Large breakers are expected through at least this morning across Broward and Palm beaches, with a high surf advisory in effect for these locations. Higher than usual tides will also create elevated water levels near the coast. Dangerous beach and swim conditions are expected through mid-week.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water levels are forecast to gradually start climbing into Moderate flood stage again by tonight's high tide as we start to head closer and closer to the New Moon on Nov 9. Hopefully, by mid-week, we'll be able to remove the strong onshore wind component and pull back some of the heavy rain potential as astronomical tide levels start to rise again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 75 84 75 84 / 60 70 40 60 West Kendall 75 85 75 85 / 50 60 30 60 Opa-Locka 75 85 75 85 / 60 70 40 60 Homestead 75 85 75 86 / 60 60 40 50 Fort Lauderdale 74 83 75 83 / 70 70 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 75 83 75 84 / 70 60 60 60 Pembroke Pines 74 85 74 86 / 60 70 50 60 West Palm Beach 74 83 74 84 / 60 60 50 60 Boca Raton 75 83 75 83 / 70 60 60 60 Naples 71 85 72 85 / 20 60 10 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.