textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Cool and dry conditions will prevail across South Florida over the next several days as a strong cold front arrives across the region today. - Breezy northwesterly winds will result in cautionary to hazardous marine conditions across the local Gulf & Atlantic waters this afternoon into Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

The same overall atmospheric configuration looks to remain in place across the Contiguous United States early this morning with a sprawling ridge of high pressure dominating the western half of the country and a potent trough situated over the eastern half. Over the southeastern US, the base of this deepening upper trough (with 500- mb height anomalies near its base over the Southern Appalachians falling within only the 2nd percentile for the date as per the REFS) has united with the strong flow aloft that is associated with the subtropical jet that we continue to have overhead here in South Florida. As a result, an excessively strong jet streak has developed within this area of confluence between the two air currents, encompassing northern and central Florida and extending several hundred miles into the Southwest Atlantic waters, with winds aloft at the 200mb level oscillating between 120 and 130 kts which, according to the REFS, is between the 98 and 99th percentiles for this time of year.

Although South Florida is displaced to the south of this impressive jet streak, the same subtropical jet is still pumping in winds aloft at between 80 and 95 kts, which is between the 92nd and 96th percentiles as per climatology. Embedded moisture along this subtropical jet kept our skies here in South Florida mostly cloudy on Thursday, and recent IR (infrared) satellite imagery continues to suggest the same this morning with an abundance of mid to high-level clouds still streaming across the peninsula from southwest to northeast. Both ACARS and the 00Z MFL soundings support these observations with minuscule dew point depressions in the upper third of the atmosphere and slightly drier air in place across the low to mid-levels.

Taking a look at RTMA-derived surface winds, a weak surface trough can be pinpointed over South Florida's local Atlantic waters with a frail and slackening cold front located a little further south over the Florida Straits. There are showers in association with these two features, mainly confined to their respective axises of surface convergence. Over mainland South Florida, all remains mostly dry as there is little in the way of forcing across the region. The main story recently has been the strong cold front that is expected to bring us our first real cooldown of the Fall season, and you may be wondering, where exactly is it as we speak? Looking off the north towards the borders of Florida, Georgia and Alabama; a sharp demarcation in dew points ultimately reveals the position of the front, as does the presence, via surface plots, of post-frontal northwesterly surface winds over the Florida panhandle and southern GA/AL and southwesterly flow over north-central Florida along and just ahead of the front. This front will continue to work its way down the rest of the Florida peninsula through the rest of the overnight hours, roughly arriving at the Lake Okeechobee region shortly after daybreak Friday morning, which rightfully explains the lack of cooling across South Florida as the air mass we will be waking up to will be still be pre-frontal. We will, thus, be walking our the door Friday morning to lows that will be fairly similar to yesterday morning's, ranging between the mid to upper 60s north of Alligator Alley and in the low 70s across the southern half of the peninsula.

High-res model guidance does suggest that the front could try and squeeze out a few showers as it approaches our region Friday morning and into the first half of the afternoon as it continues to push southward, but PoPs do not want to exceed 10% in many South Florida locations as it does so. The 00Z MFL sounding showed a measly surface-based CAPE value of just 2 J/Kg, and with model guidance not suggesting it to climb past 500 J/Kg through the rest of the overnight hours and into the morning and early afternoon hours, the risk of scattered showers and let alone thunderstorms will be very low. As per forecast soundings (and the lingering saturation they continue to show in the mid to upper levels), the plentiful cloud cover we have observed this morning is forecast to stay in place through Friday afternoon and should continue to suppress any significant amounts of surface destabilization, thus keeping things rather quiet across South Florida and only resulting in some light stratiform rain here and there as the boundary pushes through our region.

Continental high pressure that, according to surface observations, extends from Manitoba/Ontario in Canada southward through the Midwest and Lower Missouri River Valley will allow winds to become northwesterly later this morning across South Florida amidst our passing cold front. They should be fairly light across mainland South Florida through the majority of the day, before starting to increase over the frictionless local Atlantic and Gulf waters as a local pressure gradient begins to develop between the aforementioned high to the north and the departing front. Since the northern half of South Florida will be the first to experience the intrusion of this much cooler air (in addition to the high cloud cover we are expecting) between the morning and early afternoon hours coinciding with the peak diurnal heating period, high temperatures will only be climbing into the mid to upper 70s north of Alligator Alley. Will be slightly warmer over the southern half of South Florida ahead of the advancing front, but lingering cloud cover will allow our highs to drop by a few degrees to what we experienced yesterday and achieve values that are closer to average for this time of year (low 80s).

High-res mesoscale models i.e. the RAP and HRRR show our atmospheric profile beginning to undergo a notable north-to-south drying trend during the second half of the afternoon across South Florida as dry air on the the backside of the large upper trough over the eastern US makes its push into our region and helps to displace the moist subtropical jet to our south. This will gradually reduce our cloud cover into Friday evening, setting the stage for radiational cooling and our first real taste of Fall as the cooler, less humid air mass succeeding the front spills into the remainder of South Florida. We are forecast to wake up on Saturday morning to temperatures that will be between 5 and 10 degrees below average for this time of year: in the low to mid 50s around Lake Okeechobee and over the interior, with our coastal metros generally dropping into the upper 50s. NBM has a 30-35% chance of temperatures dropping to below 50F west of the Lake, while the LREF has just a slimmer of a higher chance of 35-40% over the northwesternmost portion of our CWA in Glades County. As a result of this cool air advection, high temperatures on Saturday will only be climbing into the mid to upper 60s around Lake O and the interior, and into the low 70s across our east coast and Naples metros. With a very dry, post-frontal atmospheric column, expect mostly sunny skies with a crisp breeze out of the north in response to high pressure over the Midwest/Lower Missouri Valley today shifting slightly eastward towards the Mid- Mississippi Valley. Winds will be stronger over the local waters and along coastal regions than they will be today due to an enhancing pressure gradient, so it will be best to avoid any boating activities and to instead go out and perhaps buy yourself a delicious peppermint mocha (too soon?).

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

SUNDAY & MONDAY...

Brisk upper level flow will remain the atmospheric status quo across South Florida during the second half of the weekend as the sub- tropical jet stream remains entrenched across our region. Model guidance has come into better agreement within the past 24 hours regarding the passage of a shortwave axis across the region during the day on Sunday. However even with the injection of upper level dynamics (Maxima of upper level divergence and low level convergence across South Florida as the region resides in the right entrance of a developing jet-streak), the continental airmass (post-FROPA) still in place will limit any threat of convective development over land, with an outside chance (<10%) of a few isolated showers developing over the instability laden waters of the Gulfstream. Forecast model soundings depict a dearth of moisture in much of the atmospheric column (above 850-900mb) across our region on Sunday but also reveal a subtle but important shift in prevailing wind direction at the surface. With such a transient mid to upper level pattern increasingly in play across the southern United States, the axis of surface ridging will slide eastwards across the upper Mississippi River valley on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Why is this detail important to us here in South Florida? The siting of surface ridging across the eastern United States is instrumental in determining just how long a "cold" snap is able to last across our region given the moderating influences of the surrounding Atlantic waters. The longer surface flow remains out of a northwesterly direction (Straight from the continent), the longer the duration of a "cold" snap across our area. In this case, the advertised temperature drop for South Florida will be rather short-lived, so be sure to partake (Pumpkin spice anyone?) in this iteration of Florida fall.

As the surface ridge slides eastward, anticyclonic flow on the periphery of the expansive ridge across South Florida is also forecast to veer in direction. Nocturnal stratification at daybreak is expected to result in light northerly flow across most of the region before surface winds re-couple and veer north-easterly across the region post-sunrise. This could result in an interesting distribution of slightly warmer minimum temperature values along the east coast of South Florida by daybreak on Sunday, while areas across inland southwestern Florida could see values in the upper 40s as surface winds slacken and decouple. The veering of surface winds to a breezy northeast direction during the day on Sunday is forecast to jump-start a gradual warming trend as the airmass in place across South Florida gradually moderates. Forecast high temperatures will range from the upper 70s across coastal locales to temperatures in the mid 70s near Lake Okeechobee.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to depict the next mid- level shortwave sliding southeastward from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and along the Northern Gulf Coast during the day on Monday. The orientation of the sub-tropical jet stream and a maxima of upper-level divergence out ahead of the short- wave continues to be resolved by model guidance in developing an area of surface low pressure across the western Gulf. While this feature is forecast to remain well to the west of South Florida on Monday, a strengthening pressure gradient (Between the surface low in the Gulf and surface high across the eastern CONUS) is being depicted by model guidance to result in gusty conditions and gradual moisture return across the region on Monday. While the airmass will still be in the process of moderating, gusty NErly to ENErly flow will support the threat of low-topped shower activity moving onshore along the east coast of South Florida during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will also continue on an upward trajectory with forecast high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.

TUESDAY & BEYOND...

As the mid-level shortwave accelerates southeastward across the northern Gulf during the day on Tuesday, the accompanying area of surface low pressure is modeled to do so in tandem, moving briskly along across the central Gulf. Comparing yesterday's model suite to the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance solutions, the 00z model suite has continued to trend with a more southern trajectory of the mid-level shortwave which would also have direct implications on the track of the associated surface low and frontal boundaries displaced further to the south. Similar to last night, 500mb cluster analysis suggests that ensemble guidance (ECMWF, GEFS, and CMCE) remains in fair agreement with the placement & timing of the shortwave as variance remains low. The shift southward of the surface low and consequently, best foci of ascent is also represented in QPF cluster analysis with the greatest clustering of ensemble members now depicting the possibility of lower rainfall totals occurring across South Florida than what is depicted on the ensemble mean (GEFS, ECMWF, and CMCE).

While the latest forecast guidance has trended to a more southern track of the surface low just to the south of South Florida, two other potential trajectories include: 1) a passage directly over South Florida or 2) just to the north of South Florida. The atmosphere is a fluid and forecast alterations are certainly still possible as we remain within the 4-5 day time frame. Lift, instability, and moisture are the three main ingredients for thunderstorm development and will directly be influenced by the exact placement and evolution of the surface low. The fourth ingredient that is needed for more robust thunderstorm development, shear, will be dictated by where the sub-tropical jet-stream maxima is located in relation to surface features.

As deterministic guidance can vary widely from run to run and depict a singular outcome , ensemble guidance can present a wider and more probabilistic array of potential solutions. The best analogy to help make this important distinction (deterministic vs ensemble) is to picture a race car derby. Consider a singular derby car that is propelled with force down the derby ramp. One singular input produced one singular outcome, which is a really simplistic equivalent to deterministic model guidance. To contrast this, now imagine a line of derby cars, each built with different materials and given varying levels of force down the derby ramp. Each derby car had slightly different input parameters which will lead to different outcomes, a wider array of potential solutions. Bringing the point home, current ECENS and GEFS ensemble members show a very wide spread of potential outcomes with this system. Some ensemble members depict the threat of thunderstorm activity, heavy rainfall, and higher precipitation rainfall totals across South Florida. The orientation of projected rainfall totals on some of these ensemble members hint at the threat of frictional convergence as gusty northeasterly winds are slowed along the east coast of Florida, which could hint at a threat of locally higher amounts at isolated locations should these solutions become a reality. Alternatively, a large subset of ensemble members depict the opposite with the greatest impacts displaced away from the region over the northwestern Bahamas and western Atlantic waters. Each ensemble member has slightly different inputs on the placement of the frontal boundaries and surface low pressure system, which is resulting in a wide array of outcomes. This wide array of outcomes also helps us infer that there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the evolution of this feature next week and how we here in South Florida could be impacted.

The monitoring of upstream features (shortwave, surface low location, etc) in real time will be instrumental in getting a better handling of which solutions may transpire for South Florida. The approaching window of Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) may also give insight into how things may play out. Specifics aside, ensemble guidance remain in line with the latest run of the National Blend of Models (NBM) that depict a prolonged period of gusty winds across South Florida through much of the upcoming work week. This may act to keep temperatures near normal for this time of year, without accounting for any potential influence of convection across the region. With the surface low potentially remaining in the vicinity of South Florida through the middle to late portion of the work week, the pressure gradient could very well remain rather stout in nature. This may act to keep surface winds gusty across SoFlo with high temperatures near average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of South Florida through the entire forecast period. There will be the potential for isolated, weak showers during the first half of the day Friday as a cold front pushes through the region, but confidence is too low to include VCSH at this time. L/V winds will continue through about 14/15Z Friday morning, increasing to 5-10 kts out of the northwest thereafter. Winds become L/V again Fri evening into Sat morning.

MARINE

Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

A gentle to moderate northwesterly wind flow will develop across the Atlantic and Gulf waters this morning, becoming a moderate to fresh wind by the afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Fresh to strong wind flow develops by Friday night and into Saturday morning across the Atlantic waters. Winds become northerly across the Gulf on Saturday and northeasterly across both the Atlantic and Gulf on Sunday. Isolated showers will be possible across the local waters during the first half of the day today. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will be between 2-4 feet today, increasing to 4-7 feet across the Atlantic on Saturday. Elevated marine conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 60 72 60 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 82 60 72 59 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 81 59 72 59 / 10 0 0 0 Homestead 82 60 73 60 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 79 59 71 60 / 10 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 79 58 71 59 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 82 59 73 58 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 78 56 71 58 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 78 57 71 59 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 78 57 70 54 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.