textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 124 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 - Max heat indices around 105 are expected today. A Heat Advisory is in effect for coastal/metro Miami-Dade and Broward. Further heat concerns are expected for all of South FL the rest of the week. This may cause heat related concerns for sensitive populations.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening. Heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and poor drainage flooding.

- Minor coastal flooding is possible from late morning through the afternoon during high tide for Coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Slight pattern change expected today and Tuesday as high pressure builds into the western Atlantic. At the upper levels, a large scale trough will dig into the eastern US which will help push a frontal boundary into the SE US but its progress will stall thanks to upper air high pressure over the Gulf and Carribean regions.

Unlike the past several days where low level flow was southeasterly, the low level flow today and Tuesday will be more southerly with a mid level westerly flow. This will result in convection favoring the east coast metro. Forecast soundings show PWAT values of 2.0-2.2 inches with fairly deep moisture throughout the column. Afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected both days, and with the slow storm motions and high rainfall rates, some localized urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible. A few stronger storms will be possible, with strong winds the primary threat.

Heat will be another story early this week. With the low level flow becoming more southerly across the east coast metro, dewpoints are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. With high temps in the lower 90s, this will result in max heat indices around 105 from late morning to early/mid afternoon before convection cools off the area. Given the lower criteria in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, opted to issue a Heat Advisory for those counties from 11 AM to 6 PM today.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will remain anchored in the vicinity through at least the end of the week. An area of low pressure in the western Gulf will likely get absorbed into the upper level trough in the eastern US towards the end of the week, while upper level ridging builds into the western Atlantic. The frontal boundary over the SE US will eventually wash out towards the end of the work week while another boundary will slide down towards the SE US next weekend, before once again stalling out.

Locally, our convection will be primarily diurnally driven sea- breeze convection each day with the highest PoPs favoring inland locations and western portions of the east coast metro. Overnights will be fairly quiet each night outside of some occasional coastal showers along the Atlantic coast.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal. Heat indices will likely approach advisory criteria each day, maxing out at 105-110. Timing of rainfall each day will be critical on whether or not advisory criteria will be reached.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Light and variable winds this morning becoming southerly around 10 kts this afternoon with a westerly wind at APF. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected early this week. Scattered thunderstorms possible each day which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, seas will be 2 ft or less.

BEACHES

Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Due to the new moon cycle, minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide from late this morning through early this afternoon along the Collier county and Mainland Monroe coastlines. Additional minor coastal flooding is possible on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 91 77 91 78 / 70 20 40 10 West Kendall 92 75 93 76 / 60 20 30 0 Opa-Locka 93 77 93 78 / 70 20 50 10 Homestead 91 77 92 79 / 40 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 91 78 91 79 / 70 20 50 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 77 91 78 / 70 20 60 20 Pembroke Pines 95 78 95 79 / 70 20 50 10 West Palm Beach 91 77 92 78 / 70 20 70 20 Boca Raton 91 77 91 79 / 70 20 60 20 Naples 90 80 90 79 / 20 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ072-074-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.