textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 603 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Thunderstorm activity will wind down this evening. Thursday will feature another day of showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon.

- Slow storm motion combined with the potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding, especially across urban and poor drainage areas.

- Peak heat index values will range between 103 and 108 across most areas of South Florida on Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Convection has started firing along a stationary boundary that is currently draped just off the Atlantic coast. This feature will provide better focus for continued convection through the remainder of this afternoon, and will bring higher storm chances across the east coast ranging from a 60-70% chance. The parameter space is characterized by PWATs near 1.8" and increasing as moisture advection continues to pool over south Florida. CAMs show PWATs pushing towards 2.20" today, climatologically high above the 90th percentile for this time of year. With plenty of instability in place, including DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg, any storm that develops will be capable of producing heavy and efficient rainfall. Widespread flooding is not expected, but quick ponding in low lying and poor drainage areas could occur, so use caution if you get caught under a storm. Outflow and sea breeze interactions further inland will result in additional thunderstorm develop through the afternoon. Frequent lightning, brief gusty winds up to 30-35 mph, and heavy rain will be what to look out for. Outside of thunderstorm activity, the sweltering heat will continue, especially as atmospheric moisture increases. Heat index values will range from 103-107.

Thunderstorm activity will wind down with the loss of daytime heating. Thursday's forecast looks very similar to today's with high shower and thunderstorm chances, especially inland with afternoon chances between 80-90%. Chances will range from 50-60% across the east coast. Heat index values will range from 103-108 with a few pockets of 110 possible. If you have any outdoor interests, it is encouraged to wear light clothing, stay hydrated, and keep cool.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The expansive area of high pressure locked over the southeast will begin drifting east as we head into the weekend. A surface high will develop off the Atlantic coast, placing south Florida on its western fringes. Southeasterly mid-level flow will allow for high rain and storm chances to persist through the weekend with a higher focus inland and along the west coast. Sea breeze and outflow interactions will remain the focus point for thunderstorm development each day. Heat will continue to be a concern as heat index values remain between 103-108 with localized areas of up to 110.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail this taf cycle. Some lingering VCTS, but activity will continue to wane over the next few hours. Winds will be light and generally out of the NNE, shifting more southeasterly Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop again Thursday afternoon, but confidence in exact location of development is low. PROB30 groups have been included to capture this uncertainty.

MARINE

Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

For the Atlantic, northeast winds prevail through the afternoon, becoming light and variable this evening into the overnight hours. Winds will shift out of the southeast Thursday with wind speeds generally 10 mph or less. Seas will range from 2 to 4 ft with showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, diminishing in coverage tonight. Periods of gusty winds are possible in thunderstorms. For the gulf, west-northwest winds will shift east tonight with speeds around 10 mph. Seas will be at 2 ft or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 91 79 92 / 30 80 20 70 West Kendall 75 91 75 92 / 30 80 20 80 Opa-Locka 78 92 78 93 / 30 80 20 80 Homestead 78 91 78 92 / 30 60 20 60 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 79 91 / 30 60 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 78 90 79 91 / 30 70 20 80 Pembroke Pines 80 93 80 94 / 30 80 20 80 West Palm Beach 78 91 78 91 / 30 60 20 80 Boca Raton 79 90 79 91 / 30 60 20 70 Naples 77 91 78 91 / 30 60 40 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.