textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 441 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Cool and dry conditions will prevail across South Florida over the next several days as a strong cold front arrives across the region today. - Breezy northwesterly winds will result in cautionary to hazardous marine conditions across the local Gulf & Atlantic waters this afternoon into Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 324 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

The Florida peninsula currently sits at the base of a 500 mb trough centered over New England with ridging over the western United States gradually pushing eastward. Also at the base of this trough sits a subtropical jet draped over North Florida and extending off the coast of the Carolinas. South Florida remains in the right entrance region of this jet streak. While the upper level divergence associated with this positioning would support surface convergence over the SoFlo region, the 12Z sounding shows a stable profile (limited to no CAPE, EL at 15 kft, and CIN of -123 J/kg). PWATs currently sit around the 75% percentile for this time of year; however, these values will gradually lower as a surface cold front moves through the region overnight into Saturday. This surface feature is especially apparent on Upper Level Water Vapor, which shows a drier and cooler air mass over North/Central Florida bisecting the peninsula behind the front. The stable atmospheric profile present and an upper-level cloud deck keeping significant daytime heating in check should keep shower and storm activity diminished.

Cooler conditions will settle over South Florida by Saturday as well, with low temperatures dipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s overnight. On Saturday, high temperatures will reflect the first taste of fall-like weather with widespread low 70s and upper 60s for the Lake region. The southward progression of the aforementioned frontal passage will gradually tighten the pressure gradient over the area, influencing breezy northwesterly winds particularly over coastal waters on Saturday. Drier air advection associated with the surface front will also work to clear out the widespread cloud cover into this afternoon, eventually resulting in clear skies and near zero rain chances on Saturday. In summary, pleasant conditions are forecast this afternoon and throughout Saturday, making for an enjoyable fall weekend.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 324 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

The latter half of the weekend will exhibit post frontal (FROPA) conditions as a dry air mass (PWATs under 1 inch) will keep the local atmosphere stabilized despite a broad mid-level and upper- level trough swinging across the region. South Florida will remain in the right-entrance region of the jet stream, which is favorable for divergence aloft and convergence in the low levels, but forecast soundings highlight a highly stable environment with the dry air mass dominating the local atmosphere. Therefore, expect much more comfortable conditions with dew points staying in the 50s and high temperatures in the upper 70s on Sunday.

Heading into next week, long range model guidance has continued to trend towards stronger high pressure forming across the eastern US, setting up brisk easterly flow across the region that results in breezier than normal conditions for the early to mid-week period. Additionally, as some moisture returns as a result of a mid-level shortwave projected to advect across the Florida Peninsula, westerly flow aloft will occur in tandem with the easterly surface flow. This can help cause increased low-level convergence for SE Florida where this wind shift and mixing overlaps. Thus, SE Florida will be the primary focus area for the remainder of the long term period extending through next Friday. This is shown with an average of 40- 50% PoPs along the east coast metro areas each day between Wednesday and Friday. Additional details regarding how much rainfall is possible remains highly uncertain given that this time frame is near the end of the forecast period, but we will continue to assess over the next several days to get an idea of potential QPF ranges and any possible impacts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 441 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR is expected for the period. NW winds around 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts are expected for the duration of the period with dry conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

A gentle to moderate northwesterly wind flow will develop across the Atlantic and Gulf waters this morning, becoming a moderate to fresh wind by the afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Fresh to strong wind flow develops by Friday night and into Saturday morning across the Atlantic waters. Winds become northerly across the Gulf on Saturday and northeasterly across both the Atlantic and Gulf on Sunday. Isolated showers will be possible across the local waters during the first half of the day today. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will be between 2-4 feet today, increasing to 4-7 feet across the Atlantic on Saturday. Elevated marine conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 60 73 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 60 73 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 60 73 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 61 74 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 59 72 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 59 71 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 59 73 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 57 71 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 58 71 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 58 71 55 79 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.