textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Dry and comfortable weather continues for the next few days.

- Above average temperatures continue into the end of the week with highs increasing to the mid to upper 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 1215 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Aircraft (ACARS) and satellite derived (GOES East) atmospheric vertical profiles indicate an airmass in place across South Florida with copious amounts of stable dry air this afternoon. 17z RTMA analysis corroborates this, depicting a slight dewpoint gradient from southeast to northwest across the region. With the axis of surface ridging sliding to the east along the coast of the southeastern United States and gradually pushing into the western Atlantic water, a comfortable and quiet rest of the day is expected across the region with winds out of an easterly direction, albeit light in nature. Similar to yesterday, a shallow layer of low level boundary layer moisture exists within the first 1km from the surface, which may support the development of diurnally driven low topped cumulus across our land areas through sunset.

Only forecast alteration that was made was the inclusion of patchy dense fog across interior locales of the western half of South Florida overnight. With winds decoupling overnight, nocturnal stratification and the development of an inversion, and gradual moisture return, patchy dense fog may develop after midnight and persist across locales through daybreak until vertical mixing allows for the stratus to lift and mix out. Fog will be a reoccurring phenomena over the next several days with varying levels of spatial and temporal extent each morning. Placement of the greatest foci of dense fog will mainly depend on prevailing wind direction and radiational cooling which will aid atmospheric saturation.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

A weak flow pattern is maintained for the the end of this week as broad upper level ridging stays situated over the Florida Peninsula and Caribbean islands. Any modest moisture will be confined to the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but will not result in any shallow shower development as high pressure dominance and weak flow keeps conditons highly calm. Therefore, quiet and comfortable weather continues through the end of this week. High temperatures are expected in the low to mid 80s both today and Friday, which will be a few degrees above normal (upper 70s) for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

The mid-level ridge over the Caribbean and western Atlantic will eventually get pushed away from the area as a strengthening trough over the central and eastern U.S. breaks up into an overall elongated trough and a deeper shortwave forming over the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. An attendant cold front will advect southwards from this disturbance and ahead of its arrival the low level wind flow will shift to the south and southwest over the weekend, leading to an increase in moisture advection back into South Florida. As a result, with this cold front expected to be a more robust one compared to the last couple, the front will be able to lift this warm and moist air out ahead of it and increase the chances for some rain showers and thunderstorms mainly for the second half of Sunday as well as Monday. Despite the increase in moisture, model soundings this far out do suggest that there will not be an overwhelming amount of instability as the frontal passage occurs. Thus, most showers and storms that occur during this time frame could end up being of the garden variety with just a couple of heavier localized pockets. In general, not expecting much in the way of impactful weather with this system at this time and any total rainfall is not expected to cause major concerns.

Behind this frontal boundary, overall quiet weather returns for the end of the forecast period heading into the middle of next week as a substantially drier air mass returns once again to the region.

Temperatures for this weekend will be above normal in the mid to upper 80s as warm and moist southerly flow combined with ridging aloft will help to increase temps. For early next week, temperatures will drop into the 70s on Monday behind the aforementioned front and will struggle to rebound for a couple of days. Overnight lows will also get chillier behind the front with chances for most areas to fall into the 50s Monday night and Tuesday night.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Light and variable winds will prevail after sunset with VFR conditions expect to prevail at all terminals. Patches of dense fog will be possible across inland areas of southwestern Florida overnight but forecast guidance does not have reduced vis at KAPF at this time. Winds will veer southerly tomorrow across the region after daybreak with the potential of a gulf breeze at KAPF between 18-20z.

MARINE

Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

A gentle to lightly moderate easterly to northeasterly breeze is expected today and will shift southerly later on Friday. There is also no threat for rain showers, leading to overall benign conditions. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet in the Gulf and 2-3 feet in the Atlantic for the end of this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 70 83 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 66 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 69 85 69 86 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 70 83 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 82 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 83 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 69 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 68 84 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 70 84 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 66 83 68 83 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.