textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1203 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place across South Florida this weekend. - Patchy dense fog is possible early Sunday morning, mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region as well as interior Southwest Florida.

UPDATE

Issued at 1203 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Added some slight chance PoPs along the Palm Beach coast for the next few hours for some isolated light showers. Also expanded the patchy fog a bit for early Sunday morning. Otherwise, no major changes made to the rest of the forecast.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 142 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

The weather pattern will remain generally unchanged today as ridging prevails aloft and an area of high pressure remains established over the western Atlantic. This will continue to promote light easterly flow and generally dry conditions across the area, with temperatures rising to the low-mid 80s by late afternoon. Enough moisture near the surface early this morning could result in areas of patchy to dense fog over the interior and areas near Lake Okeechobee.

On Sunday, a subtle upper level longwave trough will develop over the Eastern seaboard, and a weak front will drop along northern/central Florida during the day. Moisture ahead of this boundary will remain generally lackluster (0.8-1.1 inch PWATs,just below average for this time of year), and the bulk of forcing mechanisms will remain well north of the region, so chances for any convective activity will remain very low. Although winds are forecast to shift from the north/northwest with this frontal approach, the cooler airmass will not reach our area, and temperatures will remain warm, with highs in the low-mid 80s once again on Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 142 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Ridging will become re-established over the first half of the week as the surface high over the western Atlantic builds back over the Florida peninsula. This will usher in the return of easterly flow and a slight uptick in moisture (up to 1.0-1.3 inches over the first half of the week). This could result in slightly warmer feels- like temperatures each afternoon; with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s each day, the apparent temperatures could start approaching the low 90s by Wednesday afternoon.

As we head into the long holiday weekend, a stout upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes region, spawning a strong surface low and associated cold front which will sweep across the nation and south across the Florida peninsula sometime between Friday and Saturday. There is some divergence regarding timing in the ensemble envelope, with the european ensembles favoring a faster progression, and the GFS looking at a slower evolution. We will continue to monitor those differences as we near the end of the week.

With enough moisture pooled over the region ahead of this front, this could mean a general increase in the chances for rain starting on Thursday and continuing through the end of the period, with PoPs in the 20-40% range each day. Temperatures could also drop slightly over the weekend once the cooler airmass moves over the area, with highs in the high 70s and lows in the mid 60s and low 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Light easterly winds 5-8 kts with a mid afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Light and variable winds late tonight. Patchy fog possible early Sunday morning over interior South FL.

MARINE

Issued at 142 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters today. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters where winds may shift and become northwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. A weak front will approach on Sunday, with winds gradually veering from the west/northwest. Seas will range between 1-3 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 67 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 62 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 66 85 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 66 83 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 66 83 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 66 83 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 66 85 67 84 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 65 83 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 65 84 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 63 83 65 84 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.