textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again today through the early evening hours. The stronger thunderstorms could contain gusty winds and frequent lightning. - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow moving storms creates the potential for localized flooding especially over the urban and poor drainage areas. - High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon through most of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Upper-air analyses today have confirmed the presence of a TUTT-like feature to north of the Bahamas, which has directly resulted in anomalously moist conditions across South Florida. Both ACARS soundings and mesoanalysis data have shown regional PWATs between the 2.1-2.4" range early this afternoon, which is precisely between the 90-97th climatological percentiles for the date based off the ECMWF EFI ensemble forecast and between 1-2" inches above average based on the NAEFS standardized anomaly. Marine DMAX has allowed the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity to stay mostly offshore this morning, but diurnal heating and this highly- saturated atmosphere will imminently result in the development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across our region through early this evening. High-res models indicate the highest coverage of convection occurring over the interior and SW Florida where both our local sea breezes are forecast to converge. Frequent to excessive lightning and gusty to erratic wind shifts in and around thunderstorms will be the primary hazards today, with localized flooding also a marginal point of concern in low- lying/poor drainage areas.

It will be a rinse and repeat pattern tomorrow as the aforementioned TUTT over the Bahamas will slowly drift westward toward the Florida peninsula and keep our moisture content above average for this time of year (70-95th percentiles as per the HREF grand ensemble). Similar to today, LPMM composite reflectivity guidance suggests showers and thunderstorms to be developing out over the local waters overnight Wednesday with perhaps a few grazing our east coast locales. A persisting east-southeasterly sfc flow will again allow diurnally-driven showers and storms to push inland as the day progresses, favoring the interior and SW Florida during the afternoon and early evening hours.

High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s each day, with peak heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 402 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

While the overall forecast scenario for the long term hasn't changes significantly, the only caveat will be the arrival of the remnants of Dolly in the form of a broad area of low pressure and enhanced deep tropical moisture. NBM and long-range guidance has responded by pushing max POPs into the 80-90% range across much of SoFlo each day through the weekend. Dew points, PWATs and rainfall estimates all remain above or well above seasonal normals through the long term, supporting the forecast philosophy of having a very active, wet weather pattern.

Meanwhile, the W Atl sfc ridge will slowly push southward and closer to the area. This will shift overall flow more southerly, enhancing even more the moisture advection. In general, expect scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon/early evening. Best chances for strong convection will again happen with the onset of the East coast sea breeze, first along the Atlantic metro areas early in the afternoon, then pushing inland during the late afternoon hours. Hazards will include gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably hot each day, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows should remain in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Showers and storms diminishing over the next couple of hours, with a mainly dry overnight period with light and variable flow. SE flow increases late Wednesday morning with additional showers and storms developing near eastern sites along the sea breeze. Gulf breeze at APF is likely Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 402 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

A gentle to moderate east southeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters through the rest of the week. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become more south southwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each day. Gusty and erratic winds, along with brief periods of rough seas, will be possible in and around thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 90 80 90 / 50 50 30 70 West Kendall 76 90 77 89 / 50 60 30 70 Opa-Locka 79 91 80 90 / 50 50 40 70 Homestead 77 91 79 91 / 50 50 30 70 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 80 90 / 50 50 50 70 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 50 50 50 80 Pembroke Pines 78 90 79 90 / 50 50 40 70 West Palm Beach 77 92 79 92 / 50 60 60 80 Boca Raton 79 89 80 89 / 50 60 60 70 Naples 75 90 77 91 / 50 60 30 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.