textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 711 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026 - Heat indices will rise into the upper 90s and lower 100s across most areas each afternoon through Thursday.

- Hazardous beach conditions will remain in place for all Atlantic beaches through this evening.

- An unsettled weather pattern will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across South Florida, starting tomorrow, with increasing potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 404 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

A transition to a significantly more wet weather pattern will begin tonight, with the unsettled/wetter scenario expected to last through the weekend or even early next week.

For today, model solutions begin to gradually shift the prevailing ridging over the area further south/southeast, but still keeping a generally SE flow over SoFlo for one more day. 00Z MFL sounding shows lingering drier air above 2km, but PWATs are gradually increasing (~1.7"). By the end of the day, both the sfc ridge axis and the mid/upper lvl ridge will be displaced by developing troughiness over the region, with the ridge axis moving over the extreme southern portions of the peninsula. In response, winds across SoFlo will begin veering to a more southerly flow, which triggers the onset of an extended moisture advection scenario. The southerly, and eventually southwesterly flow, will tap into the pool of deeper moisture over the Caribbean and the SE Gulf waters and bring a sharp increase in showers and thunderstorm coverage across the area from Thursday onward. NBM keeps a gradient of this afternoon PoPs/Wx coverage over SoFlo with 50-70% for most of the western half of the CWA, and 15-30% for the eastern half. The erosion of the ridge aloft may allow for better convective support, resulting in a few strong cells. But overall thermodynamic parameters remain less than ideal, including 500mb temps around -5C and modest lapse rates, limiting potential for severe weather.

By Thursday, long range solutions intensify the south-to-north influx of deeper tropical moisture, with latest GFS Total Precipitable Water Normalized Anomaly still showing moisture content of around 3 standard deviations above seasonal means, and model PWATs over 2". PoPs jump into the 70-80% range for much of SoFlo by the afternoon hours. WPC now shows a marginal risk for flash flooding on Thursday for most of the east coast metro areas. Given the likelihood of having multiple days of flooding concerns, a close eye will be kept on upcoming guidance in case a flood watch becomes necessary.

Afternoon highs each day should continue hit the upper 80s to around 90 along the East Coast, and up into the mid 90s over west coast areas. Heat indices will peak in the upper 90s to around 100 across the East Coast, and up into the mid 100s over southwest FL despite the onset of the rainy pattern.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

The long term scenario looks very wet as models show an unsettled weather pattern prevail through the forecast period. Dominant southerly flow will keep bring the large swath of above normal PWATs streaming across SoFlo south-to-north through the weekend, and likely into early next week. In addition, guidance show several shortwave impulses traveling across the region, which will likely provide additional support for deep convection to develop. The most active rain periods will follow the daily cycle, with highest POPs during the afternoon peak heating hours when sea breezes push inland. Friday afternoon PoPs remain in the in the 70-80% range, but latest WPC outlook removed the Marginal Risk for flash flooding through the weekend. However, slower-moving cells, training, and/or boundary collisions could result in heavy rainfall accumulations over the same locations. Therefore, flooding remains as the main hazard to be on the alert during the long term.

Other hazards include potential for thunderstorm damaging winds (including potential for downburst winds) and lightning strikes. One of the aforementioned shortwave features is shown on guidance moving closer to the area by Saturday, increasing potential for strong to severe cells Saturday afternoon.

In general, expect a very active long term period with numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, including favorable conditions for localized flooding.

Temperatures remain hot on Friday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s as there should be enough daytime heating during the morning hours. Then a modest relief is expected for the weekend as persistent cloud cover and shower activity should help in keeping highs down a couple of degrees. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR should prevail through around 17-18Z over the Atlantic terminals, then some periods of MVFR cigs are possible with VCSH, APF is expected to experience more frequent MVFR or even IFR periods with TS after 17Z. Southeasterly winds ranging from 10-12 kts will increase to 12-16kt after 12Z with gusts at 25-28kts.

MARINE

Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Breezy periods continue over the Atlantic waters today but remaining below advisory levels. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze will continue through this evening. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day across the local waters as a large area of enhanced moisture streams across the region as winds shift to a more southerly flow over both the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Strong onshore flow is keeping a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 78 88 76 / 20 20 60 50 West Kendall 90 76 90 74 / 20 20 70 40 Opa-Locka 90 77 90 76 / 20 20 60 50 Homestead 89 78 89 76 / 10 20 60 40 Fort Lauderdale 87 79 87 77 / 20 30 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 87 78 87 76 / 20 30 60 60 Pembroke Pines 91 79 91 77 / 20 20 60 50 West Palm Beach 88 78 88 76 / 10 20 60 60 Boca Raton 87 79 88 77 / 20 20 60 60 Naples 91 76 89 76 / 30 50 60 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.