textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. Rainfall chances remain elevated through the upcoming week. - Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding over the urban and poor drainage areas each day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Latest analysis shows and upper level low over the NE Gulf. This low will meander in the area today before lifting up to the northeast towards the SE US coast by late Monday. Deep moisture remains in place over the region with PWAT values of 2.0-2.2 inches. A weak light and variable is expected near the surface with SW flow aloft. This should concentrate the bulk of convection over the interior and east coast metro both today and Monday, with the highest PoPs during the afternoon and early evening hours.

HREF mean QPF values are generally a half inch to an inch today, however 6 hour max QPF values show the potential for localized 3-5 inch amounts across the metro. This will be a similar case on Monday. With this in mind, urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threat both days.

High temps today and Monday will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps tonight will range from the low to middle 70s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The upper level low mentioned above will eventually get absorbed into the broader upper level flow early in the week. Then a frontal boundary will slide down the state the middle to end of the work week. This will keep rain chances elevated through the extended period. WPC has some fairly robust rainfall totals each day, especially from the middle to end of the work week. 7 day totals of 5-7 inches are fairly reasonable given the above average moisture in place across the area. Given antecedent conditions, flooding will remain the primary concern across the metro areas throughout the week.

Temperatures will remain near normal through the end of the week, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps each night will be in the lower 70s over the interior, to mid and upper 70s across the metro.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Light and variable winds this morning with scattered coastal showers. Winds become SE 5-10 kts this afternoon with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Light and variable winds today across the local waters with a gentle southerly flow expected on Monday. Seas generally 2 ft or less. Thunderstorms each day may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 76 88 77 / 80 50 80 50 West Kendall 88 74 88 76 / 80 40 80 50 Opa-Locka 89 76 88 76 / 80 40 80 50 Homestead 89 75 88 76 / 70 50 80 60 Fort Lauderdale 88 75 88 76 / 80 50 80 60 N Ft Lauderdale 89 76 88 77 / 70 40 80 50 Pembroke Pines 89 75 88 76 / 80 40 80 50 West Palm Beach 89 74 89 75 / 70 40 80 50 Boca Raton 88 75 88 75 / 70 50 80 50 Naples 88 74 88 75 / 50 60 70 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.