textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 - Shower and thunderstorms chances will remain elevated into early next week, and could result in localized flooding and strong to severe impacts each afternoon.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend. However, a frontal passage Monday-Tuesday could bring much cooler temperatures mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 114 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Radar and satellite data has shown increasing thunderstorm activity through the late morning hours, with bands of showers and embedded thunder drifting northward from the Fl Keys and into Miami-Dade. Stronger cells are likely to develop at any moment during the rest of the afternoon hours as the convective bands continue to gradually push northward. The best pool of moisture and steeper lapse rates resides around central/eastern Broward and Palm Beach counties, so these areas should experience the next round of strong storms this afternoon.

Data from latest model soundings and KEY upper air sounding show 500mb temps around -11C, along with a very wet vertical profile through 9km. PWATs are now in the 1.5-1.8" range, remaining above March normals, along with effshear around 20kt and adequate DCAPE. This synoptic scenario should continue to support widespread rain and numerous thunderstorms for the rest of today and possibly into the evening hours ahead of an approaching cold front from the NW.

The wet and unsettled weather conditions may continue on Monday with potential for periods of heavy rain resulting in localized flooding. The risk of severe weather will decrease Monday afternoon as latest SPC outlook places highest risk on Day 2 just north of SoFlo with only Palm Beach remaining in the Marginal level. But thunderstorm activity is likely again tomorrow afternoon, and can't rule out having a few strong to severe storms developing at times.

Main hazards concerns associated with the strongest storms are potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail and localized flooding, especially over east coast metro areas prone to urban flooding.

Guidance show fair agreement between solutions about the arrival of the front late Monday, keeping POPs/Wx coverage in the 60-70 percent range across much of SoFlo through the late night hours Monday.

High temperatures today should still hit the low-mid 80s despite the increased cloud cover. Overnight lows will remain in the low 70s along the coast, and mid 60s over the interior. Temperatures on Monday will reach the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The aforementioned strong synoptic complex (consisting of a deep upper level trough and stout surface low and cold front) will continue to progress eastward Monday night, pushing the cold front across our area overnight into Tuesday. This frontal passage will continue to support scattered convective activity Monday night, with the continued potential for a marginal severe weather threat. A cooler airmass will move in behind the front, with temperatures dropping to the low 70s during the day Tuesday and Wednesday, and down to the 40s and 50s. Winds will also surge behind the front, with breezy conditions expected mid week.

Models show the aforementioned front will linger over the western Caribbean waters, helping focus enough moisture and instability in our near vicinity to promote convective activity over our local waters and perhaps even over the East Coast each afternoon. Additionally, guidance is also showing a potential cut-off low break off from weak troughing aloft and drifting over our area late this week, with a surface trough or area of low pressure developing near the surface. This could help increase chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon, especially across the East Coast metro area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Brief MVFR cigs/vis periods still possible with lingering showers around the Atl terminals through 01-02Z. VCSH may also linger through the nighttime hours. SE winds around 10 kts continue through around 12Z, then winds begin shifting more southerly and becoming gusty. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may bring periods of restrictions Monday afternoon and evening.

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A moderate to fresh southerly to southeasterly breeze will prevail across all local waters through Monday ahead of a frontal approach late Monday into Tuesday. Winds will increase out of the north behind the front mid-week, potentially resulting in hazardous boating conditions. Seas will remain below 3 feet across the Gulf waters, and between 3-5 feet across the Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers will be possible across all local waters this afternoon and early next week, with potentially rough seas and strong winds near any storms.

BEACHES

Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Palm Beach and Broward county beaches will be at high risk of rip currents today as northerly swell persists.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 86 64 72 / 50 60 80 40 West Kendall 68 87 64 75 / 50 60 80 40 Opa-Locka 71 86 64 75 / 50 60 70 40 Homestead 72 86 67 76 / 50 50 80 50 Fort Lauderdale 72 84 62 70 / 60 60 70 40 N Ft Lauderdale 72 85 62 70 / 60 60 70 30 Pembroke Pines 72 87 64 74 / 50 60 70 40 West Palm Beach 71 86 59 68 / 60 70 50 20 Boca Raton 71 84 61 70 / 60 70 60 30 Naples 70 84 59 70 / 40 60 80 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.