textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Elevated risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through today.

- Areas of dense fog across the interior as well as Southwest Florida early this morning.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through most of the week, with increasing rain chances Friday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Models continue to show sfc high pressure over the area being gradually pushed offshore into the western Atlantic by a trough/front system over the SE CONUS. Aloft, mid/upper lvl ridging will remain in place over the state through tonight. But it will also be pushed eastward by the aforementioned trough/front system by Thursday.

Latest NBM looks a little less aggressive regarding POP/Wx coverage for Thursday afternoon as the best dynamic support and moisture associated with the approaching front seems to remain north of the area. Ensemble solutions and global models show fair agreement in having the front basically in a decaying state, with some members even dissipating the boundary by the time it reaches SoFlo. Regardless, there should be enough moisture for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop, with best chances north of I-75 and around the Lake region. Model soundings suggest 500 mb temps around -10C, along with PWATs over 1 inch. PoPs remain in the 20-30% for Thursday afternoon and evening, but may rise further, depending in upcoming model runs.

High temperatures for Thursday are expected in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The aforementioned trough will advect through the region by Friday afternoon with weak surface high pressure and a near zonal upper level flow pattern setting up. The frontal boundary will stall out to the north of the area with deeper moisture (PWATs up to 1.4-1.7 inches) pooling over South and Central Florida. With this setup involving a lingering weak front, weak surface high pressure replacing the departing trough, and model soundings suggesting substantial dry air above the 700mb layer, overall instability is not expected to be high although it will be enough to support some thunderstorm development for Friday through this weekend. Strongest enhancement of convection is expected to occur along the sea breeze boundaries as a weak flow pattern sets up behind the departing trough. The specifically strongest individual storm cells will form where the strongest low-level convergence occurs, which is likely to be over inland/interior locations given the weak flow. QPF each day is still forecast to be no more than half an inch each day in an average sense across the region. While localized areas can see much more than this, this setup does not favor consistent heavy bouts of rain. Specific rainfall amounts will be refined in the coming days as guidance becomes more clear.

For the latter half of the weekend and into early next week, guidance continues to suggest the potential for another shortwave to form over the Gulf and cross into South Florida on Sunday into Monday with more increased rain chances, followed by another frontal boundary trying to reach the area. This front may very likely get stalled out as well towards the middle of next week, but uncertainty remains with this. For now, expect elevated rain chances for the Sunday-Monday time frame and then some drier air infiltration and a stabilizing pattern heading towards the middle of next week.

High temperatures will fall slightly for Friday as the cold front washes out, but most areas will still be in the low to mid 80s or even upper 80s for some interior locations each day through Monday of next week. Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night for most areas, although east coast locations will continue to be around 70 each night.

MARINE

Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A gentle east to southeast breeze continues over the Atlantic waters today, with a gentle southeast breeze over the Gulf waters that shifts southwesterly in the afternoon due to the Gulf breeze. These winds will shift southerly and eventually southwesterly on Thursday as a frontal boundary pushes close to the area. Lighter and more variable winds are then expected heading into the weekend. Mostly dry conditions are expected again today, but rain chances will increase late this week as the frontal boundary and its associated disturbance approach the area. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less through the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Persistent east to southeast flow will keep an elevated risk for rip currents in place for the Atlantic beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 86 70 83 / 0 10 20 50 West Kendall 67 88 66 85 / 0 20 20 40 Opa-Locka 71 87 69 84 / 0 20 20 50 Homestead 72 86 69 84 / 0 10 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 72 85 69 81 / 0 20 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 72 86 70 81 / 0 20 30 50 Pembroke Pines 72 87 70 84 / 0 20 20 50 West Palm Beach 70 87 70 80 / 0 20 40 40 Boca Raton 71 86 69 81 / 0 20 40 50 Naples 69 84 68 84 / 0 30 20 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.