textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms expected today. Rainfall chances increase this weekend into early next week as an upper level low moves across the region.

- Heavy downpours from the stronger thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding over the urban and low lying areas.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue in the Gulf waters through this evening. A high risk of rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches through early Friday, with an elevated risk of rip currents for the rest of the Atlantic beaches.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The end of this work week will feature the mid/upper level ridge sliding back to the west while a mid/upper level low closes in on the region over the western Atlantic, and will likely be over the state by late Friday night. Some mid level dry air will filter in from the northeast which will lower rain chances a bit today, however scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected throughout the day. Brisk ENE winds expected again today with gusts of 20-25 mph outside of convection. High temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps tonight will range from the low to middle 70s over the interior, to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

Model soundings on Friday show 500 mb temps falling to around -8C and show some steeper low level lapse rates. This could result in some stronger cores aloft, however there's still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding timing of the upper level low and when it starts to cross the state, as well as cloud cover could limit some diurnal instability as well. For now it will be something that will need to be monitored over the next day. Regardless, scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected throughout the day, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. High temps on Friday will once again be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

As we head into the weekend and early into next week, the mid/upper level low will move into the Gulf, and higher moisture levels move into the region. Light ESE flow this weekend will eventually become southerly by early next week. With deep tropical moisture moving into South FL, higher than normal PoPs (80-90%) are expected each day. With generally weak steering flows expected along with efficient rainfall rates, urban and poor drainage flooding will likely be the main threat each day. All of this will continue to be good news for the ongoing improving drought conditions.

Temperatures during the extended period will be right around normal with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

NE winds 10-15 kts today with gusts around 20 kts. Scattered thunderstorms throughout the day may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Hazardous northeast winds today in the Gulf waters, with cautionary winds in the Atlantic. Seas 3-6 ft in the Atlantic waters and 2-3 ft in the Gulf waters. Conditions continue to improve on Friday as moderate easterly winds are expected and seas continue to subside.

BEACHES

Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A moderate ENE flow and elevated swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches through early Friday, and an elevated risk for the rest of the Atlantic beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 89 77 89 76 / 70 40 80 50 West Kendall 89 76 89 74 / 60 30 80 40 Opa-Locka 89 77 89 75 / 70 40 80 50 Homestead 90 77 89 75 / 70 40 80 60 Fort Lauderdale 88 78 88 77 / 70 40 80 60 N Ft Lauderdale 89 78 89 76 / 70 40 80 60 Pembroke Pines 89 78 89 77 / 70 40 80 50 West Palm Beach 90 77 89 76 / 60 60 80 50 Boca Raton 88 77 88 77 / 70 50 80 60 Naples 91 74 91 74 / 60 20 80 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ650-670.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for GMZ656-657- 676.