textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Scattered showers will develop through the early evening hours, with coverage most likely across interior and Southwest FL. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms.

- High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon through the rest of the week.

- A more unsettled pattern appears possible towards the end of the week and over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Ridging will remain generally established across the area for the duration of the forecast period, with an accompanying area of high pressure near the surface driving easterly/southeasterly winds and moisture advection across South Florida. However, a developing upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will help slightly weaken the ridge as it expands southward over the Appalachians. This weakening will help enhance lift over our area, and in turn promote more active and unsettled afternoons on Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast soundings show a much moister atmospheric column each day, with PWATs back up to 2 inches or more across much of the area. With easterly/southeasterly winds prevailing, convection will still begin along the sea breeze boundary and progress inland, but coverage is likely to be more numerous than previous days, especially across southwest FL. HREF guidance suggests 1-2 inches could fall across portions of the interior and southwest FL, with isolated 3-4 inches in some spots.

Temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Heat indices will linger in the low 100s, but cloud coverage associated with storm activity should help mitigate values rising into the 105-110F range. Overnight temperatures will also remain fairly balmy, with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s across the East Coast, and down to the mid 70s across the interior.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the extended period as South Florida remains entrenched in an area of weakness between two ridges, and the upper level trough causing this weakness extends south across the Appalachian mountains. At the same time, some of the ensemble suites are hinting at a few tropical upper tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) meandering across the area, which could enhance instability and lift and result in more widespread unsettled weather. In fact, the NBM is picking up on this possibility as we head into the weekend, with Friday afternoon potentially being one of the wetter ones this weekend (with 60-80% chances of rainfall), with activity maximized across the interior and southwest portions of South Florida. With the potential for more widespread coverage, and the added support from features aloft, the heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding for portions of southwest FL. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Ridging will start to build back and as we head into next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Light and variable winds overnight become a gentle easterly/southeasterly breeze mid-morning. Scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop in the vicinity of the East Coast sites late morning/early afternoon, but confidence regarding impacts remains low. Activity decreases with nightfall, with a return to light and variable flow.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Benign boating conditions will prevail across all local waters as light to moderate winds continue. Across the local Atlantic waters, easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail, while westerly winds are forecast over the local Gulf waters. Scattered showers and storms are expected each day, mainly in the morning hours and again in the late evening hours across the local waters. Locally hazardous winds and rough seas may occur near any storm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 91 80 91 80 / 60 40 50 20 West Kendall 91 78 91 78 / 60 40 50 10 Opa-Locka 92 79 92 79 / 60 40 60 20 Homestead 92 79 92 78 / 50 40 50 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 80 90 81 / 60 40 50 20 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 91 81 / 60 30 50 20 Pembroke Pines 91 80 91 80 / 60 30 60 20 West Palm Beach 92 78 92 78 / 60 30 50 20 Boca Raton 90 80 90 79 / 60 30 50 20 Naples 92 76 91 77 / 60 40 60 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.