textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 752 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening. A few strong to severe storms are also possible with gusty winds and lightning strikes being the main threat.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the weekend for much of the area with the highest probability of Major HeatRisk along the West Coast today.

- Drier air associated with the Saharan Air Layer will slowly move into the area during the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Latest model solutions keep a rather rinse-and-repeat weather pattern for the short term with weak high pressure remaining in place across much of the Gulf waters, while moderate ridging dominates the mid/upper lvls over the area. Meanwhile, an U/L trough over the E CONUS will continue to weaken today and allow for the Atlantic ridge axis to reach the central portions of the Florida peninsula. This will result in weak to moderate SE flow today, along with sea breeze collisions this afternoon.

Despite the persisting high pressure over SoFlo, lingering abundant moisture (model and sounding PWATs near 2 inches) will support another round of afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms each day, favoring interior and western areas. But a few strong (or even severe) cells are certainly possible over any of the Atlantic metro areas, especially early this afternoon with sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions, then again in the early evening hours with drifting storms. As in previous days, thunderstorms that do form will likely be slow-movers, and capable of producing strong damaging winds, frequent lightning and localized flooding.

For temperatures and heat index forecast, the highs this afternoon will likely hit low-mid 90s, along with heat index values in the low 100s. Guidance remains borderline about reaching Heat Advisory criteria, with duration being the main uncertain variable. But a few locations will likely reach the 105-108 range at times. But regardless of issuing an advisory or not, the heat risk is expected to again be in the Moderate to Major category, especially closer to the coastlines. People should exercise caution while outdoors, take frequent breaks, stay hydrated and wear light clothing. Avoid prolonged exposure to sunlight and look for shelter if necessary.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The overall weather pattern remains fairly persistent through the long term as U/L high pressure dominates the SE CONUS and the peninsula. Sfc weak ridging also prevails, with the Atlantic high over Central Florida gradually drifting southward through the weekend.

Pressure gradients should remain relatively relaxed through much of the long term and keeping an overall light to moderate flow in place at the sfc. Sea breezes should dominate each early afternoon period and become initial focal points for convection. Then outflow boundary collisions will likely drive late afternoon/early evening storms, favoring interior areas. But some storms may either from over coastal metro areas early in the afternoon, or drift into them later in the day or in the early evening hours. Models insist in having a Saharan Dust Layer reaching the area during the weekend, but its specific effects on the overall forecast remain uncertain in model solutions attm.

A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will remain the main concern each day. The west coast has the highest probability (60-70% chance) of reaching the Major HeatRisk category today at some point. Therefore, the situation will continue to be closely monitored in case a Heat Advisory becomes necessary. Expect afternoon highs to keep reaching the low-mid 90s each day, with a few upper 90s certainly possible, mainly over interior locations.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 752 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

L/V winds this morning will veer onshore along both coasts by 16-18Z (SWrly at KAPF, SErly at east coast terminals). SHRA/TSRA is forecast to develop across inland areas during the afternoon hours with the potential of erratic wind shifts possible in and around SHRA/TSRA activity. Activity is forecast to decrease after sunset with L/V winds prevailing once again.

MARINE

Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

High pressure will prevail across the coastal waters during the next several days. Light to moderate SSE winds should continue over the Atlantic marine zones, while a more SSW flow is expected each afternoon period across the Gulf waters with sea breezes. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may form over coastal areas, with a few cells drifting offshore in the late afternoon/early evening hours. Any thunderstorm may produce locally strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 80 93 81 / 30 10 20 10 West Kendall 93 78 93 79 / 30 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 94 80 94 81 / 30 20 30 10 Homestead 92 80 93 81 / 30 20 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 92 81 92 81 / 30 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 91 81 / 30 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 95 81 95 82 / 30 10 30 10 West Palm Beach 92 80 92 80 / 40 10 20 10 Boca Raton 91 81 91 81 / 40 10 20 10 Naples 92 77 93 78 / 50 20 50 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.