textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 149 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

- High risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches through tonight. The high risk of rip currents will expand across the rest of the east coast tomorrow morning.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly over the interior and Southwest Florida. Low chance of an isolated severe storm.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the rest of the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Increased moisture is expected to filter into the region from the Caribbean through the beginning of the week. Florida will find itself in the middle of two regions of upper-level ridging, one over the southern Gulf and one along the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile a non-tropical disturbance of low pressure will begin to develop over the Atlantic waters just east of the Bahamas. This will serve to increase chances for showers across the Atlantic waters and funnel in more low level moisture towards the peninsula. At the surface, pressure gradients will tighten over the next couple days across the Atlantic as an area of high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas strengthens to around 1026 mb. This will result in stronger easterly flow across the region, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 28 mph. This stronger easterly flow will keep the Gulf breeze pinned further west across southwest Florida during the afternoon on Sunday and even more so on Monday. Spotty showers will develop during the morning hours along the Gulfstream and Florida bay, moving westward across the region. However, most thunderstorm activity will focus along the sea breeze convergence over interior and southwest Florida during the afternoon. THe HRRR performed pretty well for Saturday's activity, and with a similar environment for Sunday, feeling fairly confident that the solution depicting 75% to 80% PoPs across the Gulf coast will play out.

However, one factor that continues to be under-modeled by forecast soundings is the amount of dry air in the mid levels. PWATs are expected to climb to near 1.8 inches for Sunday and remain at that level or slightly below for Monday. Due to nearby ridging aloft, would expect some mid-level subsidence to once again suppress thunderstorm growth from becoming strong. Yet, increasing MidRH values should be more conducive for greater coverage of showers and higher rainfall amounts. Once again, steep low level laps rates and plenty of CAPE (near 3000 J/kg) will be favorable for a few stronger storms, with gusty winds and locally heavy downpours being the main concern. Unlike Saturday, there looks to be a little bit better shear available for storms, between 15 to 25 kts, and with 500 mb temperatures cooling down to -9 or -10 C, would not be surprised if a few isolated severe storms develop for both Sunday and Monday. With steering flow aloft being relatively weak and nearly opposite to the low level wind pattern, some of these storms could be slow moving. This would contribute to some heavier localized downpours of 4 to 5 inches. For the most part, HREF ensemble PMMs are depicting 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall across interior and southwest Florida each afternoon from storm activity.

Widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) is expected for the beginning of the week. With slightly greater relative humidity, heat indices will climb a few degrees area wide. Southwest Florida will see heat indices in the lower 100s, while eastern areas will be in the upper 90s. With storm activity in southwest Florida looking to favor the latter half of the afternoon, temperatures should be able to climb into the mid 90s for parts of Collier county. Overall, temperatures look to be slightly above average for this time of year. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool indicates low chances of 20% to 30% for observing Major (level 3 of 4) heat related impacts for parts of the Dade and Broward metros through Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1255 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

An upper-level ridge is expected to drape across the Florida Peninsula for the middle of this week while expansive surface high pressure over the western Atlantic remains stagnant in it's position. The main item of interest in this mid-to-late week time frame is increased jet stream dynamics on the downstream side of the ridge leading to the development of an upper-level area of low pressure near the Bahamas. The presence of this low is expected to result in positive vorticity impulses advecting near or across South Florida as well as envelopes of deeper moisture advection occurring into South Florida. The end result are the chances for rain becoming more uniform across the region, although given the low-level easterly regime being ongoing the highest rain chances will still be across Southwest Florida for the middle to end of this week. Overall, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the end of this next week and into next weekend.

Under the consistent easterly flow regime, high temperatures each day will range from the upper 80s to low 90s for Southeast Florida to the low to mid 90s for Southwest Florida. With consistent high pressure, temperature fluctuations will not be substantial from day to night and results in at least a moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4) each day especially near the coastal metro areas. This level of HeatRisk is aimed at those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling or hydration. Chances increase to 30-50% for major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4) to be observed Friday into this weekend, which affects anyone without cooling or hydration and also affects health systems and industries.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

SHRA/TSRA will focus across the western half of the region this afternoon with gusty variable winds possible at KAPF throughout the rest of the afternoon as activity develops and moves northward. Light easterly flow prevails overnight with mainly VFR conditions forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Easterly breezes will strengthen through the beginning of the week along the Atlantic, with sustained wind speeds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts likely. A weaker westerly breeze will be likely along the immediate Gulf each afternoon, but the predominant wind regime shifts easterly over the Gulf as well. These breezier conditions look to create some slightly choppier conditions, but waters are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Sustained winds look to peak near 20 kts on Monday, with only a low 10% chance of winds being greater than 20 kts. Isolated weak showers are possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will favor the Gulf coast, beginning in the Everglades and shifting northwestward through the early evening. Chances of precipitation are expected to increase across Atlantic waters heading into the middle of the week. Atlantic seas will be 2- 4 feet through the start of the week, while the Gulf will remain 2 feet or less.

BEACHES

Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Breezier conditions will lead to continued high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches to start the week. Guidance continues to show increasing confidence for High Risk of Rip Currents to persist through the middle of the week across the Atlantic coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 87 78 87 / 30 40 30 30 West Kendall 75 89 75 89 / 30 50 20 30 Opa-Locka 78 89 78 89 / 20 50 30 30 Homestead 77 88 77 88 / 30 50 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 86 78 86 / 20 40 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 78 86 78 86 / 20 40 40 40 Pembroke Pines 79 90 79 90 / 20 40 30 30 West Palm Beach 78 86 77 86 / 10 40 30 50 Boca Raton 79 86 78 86 / 10 40 40 50 Naples 74 93 75 93 / 20 80 10 80

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.