textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026 - A high risk of rip current will develop across the Palm Beaches through the middle of the week.

- Mostly dry conditions will remain in place throughout the remainder of the week and the first part of the weekend with above normal temperatures.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase area wide during the second half of the weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A rather stout mid level ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Mexico will extend across the Gulf today as well as the Florida Peninsula. Heading into tonight and Wednesday, a fast moving mid level shortwave will push well off to the north of the area, and while this may flatten the mid level ridging over the region just a bit, it will still have firm control of the weather pattern over South Florida during this time frame. At the surface, the main synoptic feature will be an elongated area of high pressure building in from the north today, and then eventually settling southeast of the region in the Atlantic on Wednesday. This will allow for the general synoptic wind flow to remain east northeasterly today before gradually shifting and become more southeasterly on Wednesday. With plenty of subsidence taking place from the mid level ridging aloft and the surface high building in from the north, many areas will remain dry through most of today and heading into Wednesday. The only exception could be across extreme southwestern portions of the region where just enough lower level moisture will be in place, that some isolated shower and thunderstorms activity may develop along sea breeze boundary collisions later this afternoon into the early evening hours. High temperatures will remain on the warm side both today and Wednesday as they will rise into the lower to mid 80s along the immediate east coast, and into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the interior as well as Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

For the second half of the week and into the first part of the weekend, a rather strong mid level low/trough complex will slowly dive southeastward and encompass the Great Lakes region as well as the Northeast and Mid Atlantic States during this time frame. While this mid level low/trough complex will remain well off to the north, it will cause the ridge overhead to flatten a bit creating more of a zonal flow over South Florida especially on Thursday. Heading into Friday and Saturday, mid level ridging may try to build back over South Florida as the center of the ridge passes off to the south. At the surface, an area of low pressure will push off the New England coast on Thursday and a weakening frontal boundary associated with the surface low will remain draped along the Gulf Coast states as well as Northern Florida. This frontal boundary will gradually stall out to the north over Central Florida heading into Thursday night and Friday as high pressure holds strong over the western Atlantic as well South Florida.

The approach of this frontal boundary, however, will cause the surface wind flow to shift and become south to southwesterly for Thursday through Saturday. With both global and ensemble guidance remaining in good agreement that the front stalls and falls apart to the north, moisture advection will be taking place across the region and pooling out ahead of the front on Thursday. However, the latest guidance suite also is showing some signals that some mid to upper level dry air pushes back overhead on Friday and Saturday as ridging tries to build back over the region. This increase in moisture on Thursday may be just enough to create a slight chance of shower and thunderstorm development mainly due to sea breeze boundary collisions, however, chances still remain very limited at this time. Friday and Saturday look to be pretty dry and very warm across the region as plenty of subsidence will be occurring combined with the south to southwesterly wind flow in place. High temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas. Some interior locations may even have the potential to hit the mid 90s on Saturday.

Heading into the second half of the weekend, the weather pattern will once again show signs of change as the latest guidance suite continues to show signs of a potent mid level shortwave diving out of the Southern Plains and moving across the Gulf Coast states on Sunday. At the surface, this mid level feature may help to create a broad area of low pressure somewhere in the northeast Gulf on Sunday before moving it across northern Florida and into the western Atlantic heading into Sunday night and the early portion of next week. The frontal boundary with this system would then be dragged across South Florida later on Sunday before stalling out early next week across the region. The forecast remains highly uncertain during this time frame as it remains towards the end of the forecast period and the exact details still need to be worked out as far as where the broad low may develop as well as the timing of the frontal boundary approach. The latest forecast does take a blend of the forecast models and increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period for all terminals. Easterly winds at 5-10 kts will persist at all East Coast terminals through this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 kts. At KAPF, winds will remain westerly at 5-10 knots through this afternoon. Winds are expected to shift southeasterly tomorrow morning. Smoke from the Hwy 41 Fire over the Everglades may approach the vicinity of KTMB, but there is currently low confidence on any visibility impacts.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A gentle to moderate east northeasterly breeze will remain in place across most of the local waters through today before becoming more southeasterly on Wednesday. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become more west northwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. A lingering northeasterly swell in the Atlantic will cause seas to remain at 3 to 6 feet today before slowly dropping and ranging between 2 to 4 feet on Wednesday. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Due to increasing onshore winds as well as a lingering northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents will develop across the Palm Beaches today and will remain in place through at least the middle of the week. A moderate risk of rip currents will develop across the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 86 72 88 / 10 0 0 0 West Kendall 68 88 68 90 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 71 88 72 90 / 10 0 0 0 Homestead 71 86 71 88 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 84 71 87 / 10 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 71 84 72 88 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 73 89 73 91 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 70 85 70 88 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 71 84 71 87 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 70 87 71 86 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.