textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 659 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin decreasing today, but with generally scattered thunderstorms expected.

- Heat index values over 100 degrees will continue through the work week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Global and ensemble solutions show fair agreement in describing drier conditions establishing during much of the long term as the deeper moisture and instability remains over the northern half of the peninsula through the weekend. Latest NBM seems to also embrace the likelihood of having a significant intrusion of a SAL that may last through Saturday. This will result in a reduction in afternoon convection and less cloud coverage each day.

POPs/Wx coverage drops to 20-40% each afternoon through Friday, favoring the northern-most areas of SoFlo where the better pool moisture will reside. Then for the weekend, a series of short wave impulses will travel along a deepening trough over the E CONUS and push some of the lingering moisture over northern Florida back into the area. This will result in increasing coverage with a gradient of POPs south-to-north from 20-30% around Miami-Dade to 55-60% around the Lake region.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Global and ensemble solutions show fair agreement in describing drier conditions establishing during much of the long term as the deeper moisture and instability remains over the northern half of the peninsula through the weekend. Latest NBM seems to also embrace the likelihood of having a significant intrusion of a SAL that may last through Saturday. This will result in a reduction in afternoon convection and less cloud coverage each day.

POPs/Wx coverage drops to 20-40% each afternoon through Friday, favoring the northern-most areas of SoFlo where the better pool moisture will reside. Then for the weekend, a series of short wave impulses will travel along a deepening trough over the E CONUS and push some of the lingering moisture over northern Florida back into the area. This will result in increasing coverage with a gradient of POPs south-to-north from 20-30% around Miami-Dade to 55-60% around the Lake region.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon into early evening which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Outside of convection, westerly winds around 10 kts today with SCT MVFR ceilings.

MARINE

Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Gentle to moderate west-southwest winds continue during the next few days across the coastal waters. Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 78 94 79 / 50 10 20 0 West Kendall 92 75 94 75 / 50 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 93 78 95 78 / 50 10 20 0 Homestead 92 78 93 78 / 50 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 94 79 / 50 10 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 94 79 / 50 10 30 0 Pembroke Pines 93 80 96 80 / 50 10 20 0 West Palm Beach 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 40 0 Boca Raton 92 78 93 78 / 50 10 30 0 Naples 90 80 91 81 / 60 30 30 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.