textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 656 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026 - Heat indices will rise into the upper 90s and lower 100s across most areas each afternoon through Wednesday.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions will remain in place across the Atlantic waters as well as the Atlantic Coast beaches through the Wednesday.

- Deep tropical moisture will overspread the area during the second half of the week and into the upcoming weekend increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms across South Florida. Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be possible during this time frame.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

A significant transition from the current weather pattern into a more unsettled/wetter scenario is expected on Wednesday with the onset of deeper moisture advection from the south.

Today high-res and global model solutions keep one more day of ridging controlling our synoptic scenario with the mid/west Atlantic sf ridge extending into the northern half of the peninsula, while mid/upper lvl ridging lingers over the region. These features will again keep limiting available instability for deeper convection across much of SoFlo today. Latest NBM looks very similar to the previous two days with the Atlantic metro areas carrying single digit POPs through the early afternoon hours, and about 20% on the late afternoon to early evening hours. For the immediate west coast, the weaker Gulf breeze remains pinned against the ESE flow with 20- 30% POPs, so in general, expect mainly isolated showers with embedded thunderstorms.

On Wednesday, the advertised shift in the synoptic pattern will begin to materialize as both ridges quickly erode and migrate further into the Atlantic. In their place, deepening troughiness will move into the SE CONUS, allowing for sfc flow across SoFlo to begin veering to a more southerly flow. This will trigger an extended moisture advection scenario with the southerly flow tapping into the pool of deeper moisture over the Caribbean and the SE Gulf waters. POPs/Wx coverage will begin ramping up late Wed morning, but still showing a sharp gradient between the eastern and western halves of SoFlo. The Atlantic metro areas will still remain on the lower end of the precip forecast with 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, while the onset of the deeper intrusion of moisture over the west coast will likely hit the 60-70% range in the afternoon. And with the erosion of the ridge aloft, there might be enough support for a few strong cells to develop.

Despite the initial increase in showers and cloud coverage, temperatures should still remain hot with upper 80s to low 90s along the East Coast, and up into the mid 90s over west coast areas. Heat indices will again peak in the upper 90s to around 100 across the East Coast, and up into the mid 100s over southwest FL.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Long term solutions are now in good agreement regarding the unsettled weather pattern that will prevail through much of the forecast period. With the ridging now displaced away from the area, the S/SW flow will result in a large swath of above normal PWATs streaming through the state from south-to-north on Thursday. Latest GFS Total Precipitable Water Normalized Anomaly shows a moisture content of around 3 standard deviations above seasonal means. Other guidance parameters show similar results.

While the overall picture through the weekend remains the same, latest NBM and ensembles are now extending the highest/widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms beyond Thursday, possibly through Monday. This is the most significant departure from previous forecasts. Current grid package keeps highest POPs in the 70-80% range each day during the afternoon hours, with numerous showers and storms expected.

Main hazards with any thunderstorm will be gusty winds (including potential for downburst winds), lightning strikes and localized flooding with the heaviest downpours. Guidance also suggest the arrival of a strong shortwave feature sometime on Saturday, which could provide extra support for strong to severe cells at times. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook maps show a Marginal risk (at least 5% chance) of experiencing Flash Flooding over portions of SoFlo by Friday, and likely continuing through the weekend and into early next week.

Temperatures remain hot through Friday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, then a modest relief is expected for the weekend as persistent cloud cover and showers help in keeping highs down a couple of degrees. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 656 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals, but with some possible passing showers later this afternoon. Moderate ESE winds will become gusty again after 15Z with gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range across the east coast terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Moderate to breezy east-southeast winds will persist across most of the local waters today. Some periods of afternoon gusty winds are possible over the Atlantic waters during the next couple of days. A Small craft Advisory remains in effect for all Atlantic waters until late tonight. Across the Gulf waters, winds may become west southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Wednesday, then numerous showers and storms possible for the second half of the week as winds shift to a more southerly flow over both the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Strong onshore flow is keeping a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through Wednesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 89 78 88 78 / 20 30 20 40 West Kendall 90 77 90 76 / 10 20 30 40 Opa-Locka 90 78 90 77 / 20 30 20 40 Homestead 89 79 89 78 / 10 30 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 88 80 88 79 / 20 40 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 87 79 87 78 / 20 40 20 50 Pembroke Pines 91 80 91 79 / 20 30 20 40 West Palm Beach 88 79 88 78 / 10 30 20 40 Boca Raton 88 80 88 79 / 20 40 20 50 Naples 92 77 91 77 / 30 10 60 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.