textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 551 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Very cold temperatures and apparent temperatures are expected again Tuesday morning. Members of the general public and agricultural interests are advised to prepare accordingly.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue through Tuesday morning in the Atlantic waters.

- High risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches early this week, along with a high surf advisory for the Palm Beaches today through early Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 111 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Strong high pressure is over the northern Gulf today, which will continue to filter cool and dry air into the region. 00Z MFL sounding last night showed a PWAT value of only 0.17 inches and those values will remain low throughout the day. Our historic cold snap will continue for another morning with lows today ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s. Freeze Warnings are in place for all of South FL with the exception of coastal Broward, coastal Miami-Dade, coastal Collier, far southern Miami-Dade, and Mainland Monroe. Winds are much lighter this morning so apparent temps won't feel as cold, however they will still drop into the 20s this morning, so a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of South FL. With the much lighter winds, especially over inland areas, frost will likely be observed in many sheltered locations, with heavy frost possible west and south of the lake.

While 850 mb temps won't be as cold as they were this time yesterday, they are still only projected to be +0 to +2 C this afternoon across South FL. Afternoon high temps will be "warmer" than yesterday however remain well below normal only reaching the upper 50s to around 60. With dewpoints remaining in the 20s, RH values this afternoon will drop to 20-30 percent even with the cool temps.

There will be another round of cold weather headlines tonight, although the Freeze Warnings will likely be confined to inland SW FL where lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Mid to upper 30s are expected over the western portions of the east coast metro, and lower 40s are expected along the coast. Despite light winds tonight, Cold Weather Advisory criteria will likely be met in all locations except the Atlantic coastal zones.

Surface high pressure moves over Florida on Tuesday which will switch our winds around to the NE. This will further moderate temperatures across the area, and also increase cloud cover over the east coast metro during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will still be below normal but will feel much nicer, ranging from the upper 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 111 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

The extended period starts on a moderating trend with high pressure moving east of the area which allows a warm S/SW flow ahead of an approaching front associated with a system moving across the Mid Atlantic region. Scattered showers are possible overnight Wednesday into early Thursday before the front crosses the area and brings another round of cooler weather into the region, albeit not nearly as cold as this last airmass. High pressure over the northern Gulf will build into the region and dry and cool conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Another front associated with a system over northern New England will drop down across the area next weekend, with little to no moisture associated with this front.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be below normal, with near normal temperatures expected next weekend. Only day in the extended that will likely have cold weather headlines will be Friday morning, with the SW FL counties most likely to meet criteria.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR prevails through the next 24 hours at all terminals. Winds subside tonight with light and variable flow likely overnight. Winds then first increase after 12Z Tuesday out of the NE around 7-10 kts and then shift NE in the afternoon. There also will be a chance for some light coastal SHRA activity tomorrow afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low on timing right now.

MARINE

Issued at 111 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Hazardous seas in the Gulf will continue through early this morning, with cautionary northerly winds remaining through the rest of the day. Hazardous winds and seas will continue in the Atlantic waters through at least Tuesday morning. 4-7 ft seas early today in the Gulf improve to 2-4 ft by late in the day. Atlantic seas will be 6- 12 ft early today and 5-10 ft this evening and overnight. Northerly winds 10-15 kts in the Gulf today with 20-25 kts in the Atlantic.

BEACHES

Issued at 111 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Persistent swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through at least Tuesday. In addition, a high surf advisory is in effect this morning through Tuesday morning for the Palm Beaches for 6-8 ft waves in the surf zone.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

A very dry airmass remains over South FL early this week. Min RH values will fall to 20-30 percent this afternoon over all of South FL, and critically low RH values are possible again on Tuesday over interior SW FL. While wind speeds will remain below criteria, the low RH values combined with the ongoing drought conditions will still present an elevated fire risk across the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 43 68 56 73 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 36 68 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 41 68 54 75 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 41 68 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 43 67 56 73 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 44 68 57 73 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 41 69 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 42 68 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 42 68 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 37 68 49 72 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ063-066>075-174.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ063-066-067-070-071.

Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ073-075-174.

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.