textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 225 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026 - Heat indices will rise into the upper 90s and lower 100s across most areas each afternoon through Wednesday.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions will remain in place across the Atlantic waters as well as the Atlantic Coast beaches through the middle of the week.

- Deep tropical moisture will overspread the area during the second half of the week and into the upcoming weekend increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms across South Florida. Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be possible during this time frame.

UPDATE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

A drier air mass has pushed into the region and this is captured well on the 18z KMFL sounding as PWAT values have fallen to 1.31 inches this afternoon. This drier air is helping to inhibit shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. However, there is just enough lower level moisture in place that is supporting some isolated fast moving shower activity mainly over the Atlantic waters as well as the east coast metro areas. Gusty east to southeasterly winds also remain in place, which is keeping the Gulf breeze from developing at this point. The Gulf breeze will try to develop later this afternoon, however, due to the strong synoptic east to southeasterly winds in place, it will not get much further than the immediate Gulf coast.

The Gulf breeze may provide just enough lift to support an isolated thunderstorm or two across the Southwest Florida coast later this afternoon into the early evening hours. However, with the abundance of drier air across the mid to upper levels, anything that does develop will be shallow and short lived. Any convection over Southwest Florida will gradually diminsh as the evening progresses due to loss of diurnal heating. While many areas will remain dry overnight, there will be just enough lower level moisture in place to support isolated shower activity across the east coast as well as the Atlantic waters during this time frame. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to around 80 across the east coast metro areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

For the Monday and Tuesday synoptic scenario, overall picture remains fairly persistent with a sfc ridge axis remaining in place across the midwest Atlantic, and extending into the northern Florida and the eastern Gulf. Aloft, a mid/upper lvl ridge remains over the SE CONUS and the region, helping in limiting available instability for deeper convection.

Model consensus show the ridge axis gradually pushing SE, but still remaining just north of SoFlo and keeping a generally ESE flow over the area through Tuesday. This wind regime will favor the east coast sea breeze, which will push further inland and into the western portions of the CWA each afternoon. The weaker afternoon Gulf breeze should remain pinned down against the west coast. As in previous days, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms remain over interior and western areas of SoFlo. Latest NBM/ensemble trends keep bringing POPs/Wx coverage down for the short term, seemingly giving more weight to the overall dominance of the ridges and their associated subsidence. For this afternoon, NBM keeps the Atlantic metro areas under single digit POPs, and down to 15-20% for the immediate west coast. Similar pattern continues on Tuesday but with slightly higher POPs, 15-20% for the east coast and 20-40% interior and west coast with increasing moisture. In general, expect mainly isolated showers with embedded thunderstorms each afternoon favoring interior and west coast areas.

Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s to around 90 along the East Coast, and up into the mid 90s over west coast areas. Heat indices will peak in the upper 90s to around 100 across the East Coast, and up into the mid 100s over southwest FL.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Long term solutions continue to trend towards an active, unsettled weather pattern starting Wednesday with the mid lvl ridge being weaken and pushed further east by a series of shortwave troughs passing across the area during the long term. Meanwhile, the sfc ridge also weakens and migrates further south and away from the state, resulting in flow veering S/SW and triggering a moisture advection pattern that should last through the weekend. This will tap into the pool of deeper moisture over the western Caribbean and the SE Gulf waters, with model PWAts approaching 2 inches on Thursday.

Models show the initial surge of moisture peaking on Thursday, which along with one of the aforementioned shortwaves will result in POPs approaching the 75-80% range and becoming widespread across SoFlo. Then for the rest of the long term, the unsettled weather pattern continues with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Potential for heavy rain and localized flooding will also become one of the main hazards for the long term.

Temperatures remain hot through Friday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, then a modest relief is expected for the weekend persistent cloud cover and shower help in keeping highs down a couple of degrees. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. ESE winds of 15 to 20 kts will remain in place across the east coast terminals through tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts will be common especially across the east coast terminals. At KAPF, winds will become more southerly after 19z as a Gulf breeze develops. Isolated to scattered quick moving showers will be possible near the terminals through tonight. Some thunderstorm activity may be possible near KAPF through the evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 429 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Moderate to breezy east-southeast winds will persist across most of the local waters through Tuesday. Some periods of afternoon gusty winds are possible over the Atlantic waters during the next couple of days. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become west southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day through the middle of the week, then numerous showers and storms possible for the second half of the week as winds shift to a more southerly flow over both the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Strong onshore flow is keeping a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through at least Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 89 78 88 / 30 20 40 50 West Kendall 77 90 76 90 / 30 20 30 50 Opa-Locka 78 90 77 90 / 30 20 40 50 Homestead 79 89 78 89 / 30 20 40 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 88 79 87 / 30 20 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 87 78 87 / 30 20 40 50 Pembroke Pines 79 91 79 91 / 30 20 40 50 West Palm Beach 79 88 79 88 / 20 10 30 40 Boca Raton 80 88 80 87 / 30 20 40 50 Naples 77 91 77 91 / 10 30 20 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.