textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 651 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Lingering showers will continue to dissipate this evening as light winds are forecast to prevail overnight.

- Heat index values over 100 degrees will continue through the work week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 438 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over the interior and eastern portion of South Florida. However, southwesterly steering flow, further enhanced by local outflow boundaries, has kept convective activity generally weak and transient over land, pushing the development of thunderstorms offshore. Consequently, the primary focus for shower and storm activity should remain anchored along the Atlantic coast through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening before tapering off after sunset, leading to a generally quiet night.

Conditions will transition tomorrow as drier air associated with a Saharan dust plume makes its way over the region, lowering forecast PWAT values to between 1.5 and 1.8 inches. Despite the drier airmass aloft, surface heating and boundary collisions could still act to trigger afternoon convection. The highest potential for stronger storms is expected across Palm Beach County and the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee, situated along the periphery of the drier airmass. The main hazards associated with these storms will be frequent lightning, brief heavy downpours, and strong to marginally severe wind gusts.

Low temperatures tonight are expected to remain in the upper 70s at coastal locations and mid 70s across interior areas. Persistent southwesterly flow will then drive tomorrow's high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s across the East coast, which could near or surpass daily record highs depending on the timing and coverage of afternoon convection.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Global and ensemble solutions show fair agreement in describing drier conditions establishing during much of the long term as the deeper moisture and instability remains over the northern half of the peninsula through the weekend. Latest NBM seems to also embrace the likelihood of having a significant intrusion of a SAL that may last through Saturday. This will result in a reduction in afternoon convection and less cloud coverage each day.

POPs/Wx coverage drops to 20-40% each afternoon through Friday, favoring the northern-most areas of SoFlo where the better pool moisture will reside. Then for the weekend, a series of short wave impulses will travel along a deepening trough over the E CONUS and push some of the lingering moisture over northern Florida back into the area. This will result in increasing coverage with a gradient of POPs south-to-north from 20-30% around Miami-Dade to 55-60% around the Lake region.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR and dry conditions are forecast overnight with light and variable winds prevailing. Drier air works into the region overnight although isolated SHRA/TSRA could develop across the northern half of the region tomorrow afternoon. Westerly to southwesterly winds will prevail during the day on Wednesday, with gusts to 20kts possible at east coast terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Gentle to moderate west-southwest winds continue during the next few days across the coastal waters. Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 94 78 95 / 10 20 0 10 West Kendall 75 93 75 95 / 0 20 0 10 Opa-Locka 78 95 78 96 / 10 20 0 20 Homestead 78 93 78 94 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 79 93 79 94 / 10 20 0 20 N Ft Lauderdale 79 94 79 95 / 10 20 0 20 Pembroke Pines 79 95 79 96 / 10 20 0 20 West Palm Beach 77 94 77 94 / 10 30 0 30 Boca Raton 77 93 77 94 / 10 30 0 20 Naples 80 90 80 91 / 20 30 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.