textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 718 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers expected today. - High Risk of Rip Currents continue for the Palm Beaches through this evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Forecast scenario remains fairly persistent with the mid lvl ridge being gradually eroded by moisture intrusion aloft. The main driver of this surge in moisture continues to be an upper lvl shortwave moving over the region, while a deep trough/low complex treks over the E CONUS. This system will send an associated frontal boundary into the SE CONUS by Saturday. Meanwhile, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will flatten a little and push closer to SoFlo through Saturday, resulting in periods of generally light winds or even calm conditions at times each day.

The 00Z MFL sounding shows a rather quickly moistening of the air mass, with a moist profile up to 9km, and PWATs surging to around 1.3". NBM continues to respond by slightly increasing max POPs into the 30-40% range by Saturday, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. Estimated QPF values still remain around half an inch, with most showers remaining light to moderate. But an isolated heavy downpour can not be ruled out. The surging moisture will also help in keeping low-mid lvl cloud decks in place today.

Temperatures will begin to gradually increase with afternoon highs in the low-mid 80s over east coast and interior areas, and into the mid-upper 80s for Gulf coast areas.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Ensembles and global solutions show an upper lvl shortwave moving across the area to start the long term, while a weak frontal boundary moves across the SE CONUS during the weekend. Expect some gradual increase in mid lvl moisture and instability, with POPs now increasing into the 25-35% range through Sunday. Meanwhile, ridging over the west Atlantic will remain dominant across SoFlo, with winds relaxing over SoFlo during the weekend. Periods of light or even calm winds are possible, especially on Sunday.

The presence of the front over the northern portions of the peninsula will help in shifting winds across SoFlo to a more southerly flow, which combined with daytime heating will favor scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over interior and northern portions of the CWA.

For next week, conditions should dry again rather quickly during the first half of the work week as high pressure and drier air establish in the wake of the front.

A warming trend will begin during the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s across much of SoFlo. Then by Tuesday, afternoon highs should be hitting the upper 80s to low 90s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 718 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Winds increase out of the SE to around 10 kts after 15Z. An afternoon westerly Gulf breeze is again expected at APF. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mid afternoon through early evening, but favoring inland areas and having a low chance of affecting the terminals, thus just going with VCSH for now. VFR expected to prevail during the next 24 hours, except for periods of MVFR cigs during possible showers directly over terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 409 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Boating conditions should remain generally benign with a light to moderate east-southeast flow prevailing across the local waters today and through the weekend. Possible isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop, especially during the afternoon hours, as an upper level disturbance moves across the area.

BEACHES

Issued at 409 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A high risk of rip currents remains in place for all Atlantic beaches through this morning, then continuing over Palm Beach county through this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 70 83 70 / 30 10 30 10 West Kendall 81 66 86 66 / 30 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 81 69 86 70 / 30 10 30 10 Homestead 80 69 83 70 / 30 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 79 70 82 70 / 30 10 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 79 70 83 70 / 30 10 30 10 Pembroke Pines 83 70 86 71 / 30 10 30 10 West Palm Beach 80 68 83 69 / 20 10 30 10 Boca Raton 79 70 83 70 / 20 10 30 10 Naples 84 67 86 69 / 20 10 20 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.