textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 731 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms expected today. Rainfall chances remain elevated this weekend into early next week as an upper level low moves across the region.

- Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding over the urban and low lying areas each day. - There is an elevated risk of rip currents today for the Palm Beaches.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Unsettled weather pattern continues across South FL as we end the work week and start the weekend. An upper level low will cross the state from east to west today and is projected to be into the eastern Gulf by late Saturday. At the surface, a weak low and frontal boundary is off the SE FL coast. Weak low level ENE flow is expected today and becoming more easterly on Saturday. Aloft forecast soundings are showing westerly flow aloft today becoming more southwesterly on Saturday.

Hi-res models once again are struggling and likely underdoing the amount of convection across South FL today. Scattered coastal showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning and then more numerous showers and storms should develop over inland and SW FL this afternoon into early evening. Some frictional convergence along the east coast is possible today, which could result in some urban and poor drainage flooding across the metro, with 1-3 inch per hour rain rates possible in some storms. Latest HREF 6 hr max QPF show the potential for localized amounts of 2-5 inches today. WPC has far southern FL in a marginal risk of excessive rain today. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Scattered coastal showers and storms possible overnight with low temps ranging from the low to mid 70s over the interior, to mid and upper 70s closer to the coasts.

Moisture increases further on Saturday as PWAT values increase to 2.0-2.2 inches. Forecast soundings show fairly deep moisture throughout the column. Expect numerous showers and storms again during the afternoon and early evening hours. With deep moisture and weak steering flows, some urban and poor drainage flooding will continue to be a concern across the metro. Afternoon high temps will again be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Wet pattern will continue through at least the middle of next week. The upper level low will linger in the eastern Gulf and then eventually lift up into the broader upper level flow early next week. Meanwhile, South FL will remain under a ribbon of enhanced moisture. High PoPs (70-90%) are expected each day, with the highest chances being during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Urban flooding will continue to be a concern each day, especially as soils remain moist and additional rainfall is added onto them each day.

With the expected rainfall and cloud cover, temperatures during the extended period will be near normal with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps ranging from the lower 70s over the interior to upper 70s along the coasts.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 731 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Light and variable winds will become easterly after 16z and will range between 5 to 10 kts across the east coast terminals through the afternoon hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop near the terminals especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible in and around any storms along with gusty and erratic winds. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WNW after 18z as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Gentle east to northeast breeze across the area waters today. Seas 2- 3 ft in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms today may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

BEACHES

Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Lingering swell will result in an elevated risk of rip currents today along the Palm Beaches. The rip current risk improves for all beaches this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 76 88 75 / 70 30 70 60 West Kendall 88 74 88 75 / 70 30 80 50 Opa-Locka 88 75 88 75 / 70 30 70 60 Homestead 89 75 89 75 / 60 40 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 88 76 88 75 / 70 40 70 60 N Ft Lauderdale 88 76 88 77 / 70 40 70 60 Pembroke Pines 88 77 88 75 / 70 40 70 60 West Palm Beach 89 75 89 75 / 70 40 70 50 Boca Raton 88 75 88 75 / 70 40 70 60 Naples 90 73 88 74 / 60 40 70 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.