textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 752 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 - Dangerous Rip Currents and hazardous marine conditions will develop once again late Tuesday through the middle of the week for the Atlantic coast and the Atlantic waters. - Localized flooding will be possible along the east coast Tuesday through Wednesday. Some areas may receive as much as 6 inches, creating ponding water in poor drainage locations. - Gusty conditions will develop across the east coast later on Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Deep moisture pooling ahead of a stalling front over central Florida has allowed for scattered convection to linger across the Lake Okeechobee region tonight. The recent KMFL upper air sounding shows a pretty moist environment, both at the surface and aloft, with precipitable water content of 1.57 inches (90th percentile for this time of year). A long and skinny CAPE profile shows a conducive environment for efficient rainfall, and current mesoanalysis still shows modest instability of around 1500 J/kg across the southern portion of the Peninsula. Southwestern Florida has already been worked over from activity during the afternoon, so shower activity should continue to dissipate there as a cooler and more stable air mass remains. However, current upper level water vapor imagery shows a complex of storm activity over the Gulf waters, associated with a mid-level shortwave traversing across north Florida. This shortwave looks to make its way across the peninsula through the morning hours on Tuesday. Vorticity advected from this shortwave will help invigorate scattered shower activity across South Florida, but the exact timing and location of showers is still a bit uncertain given the spread among hi-res model guidance.

Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms is unlikely through the morning for the southwestern Florida counties given the overworked environment, but some scattered showers may develop due additional ascent provided by the perturbation aloft. However, the thermodynamics in southeast Florida are a bit more favorable for stronger downpours. Recent trends among hi-res guidance seem to show the stalled frontal boundary sagging a little bit further south than before. Most models are focusing precipitation along the eastern half of the region, where coastal convergence from easterly flow at the surface will help sustain showers and storms. The HRRR, NAM and ARW in particular have storms initiating along the coast as early as 3 AM EDT, with activity spreading southward towards Dade through the morning. Then, a second round of activity during the afternoon develops along the Gulf Breeze in SW FL and spreads eastward through the evening, once again supported by coastal convergence. The FV3 and RRFS have most convection a little bit later, coinciding with better daytime heating instability and forcing aloft from the trough. This solution could also shows a stronger thermal gradient along the Atlantic coast, where a developing surface low over the Gulf Stream would already be enhancing activity. Regardless of which solution pans out, there is moderate to high confidence of some urban flooding impacts along coastal Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach Counties.

This is a kind of set up where someone may get the "best case" (10th percentile) rainfall amounts, while someone else just down the road may get a "worst case" (90th percentile) rainfall event, depending on where training storms will develop. At the very least, most of South Florida will see a couple of dreary days with persistent rain showers and some stronger storms with lightning. "Most likely" amounts (50th percentile) for the Tuesday through Wednesday period remain steady at 1 to 3 inches across the eastern counties. High end amounts from the HREF show widespread areas of 3 to 4 inches, with some bullseyes of over 6 inches along coastal areas for Tuesday alone. Given the favorable set up for heavy rain and the upper end of guidance trending higher, have opted to issue a Flood Watch for metro Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties for Tuesday. Localized urban flooding will be the main concern, with low lying areas and poor drainage areas seeing ponding water. Some roadways may become impassable as drainages become clogged by debris.

Shower activity should be winding down by Tuesday evening, with most guidance showing a relatively uneventful night convection wise. However, strong northeasterly winds will begin to kick in across central and south Florida in response to a tightening pressure gradient between a 1010 mb sfc low over the Gulf Stream and a 1025- 1040 mb sfc high over the mid-atlantic states. Deterministic guidance has trended up for winds over northern and central Florida, but remain lighter over south Florida. NBM probs once again show only about a 30% chance of winds exceeding 30 kts over the Atlantic waters, still enough to create a High Risk of Rip Currents and choppy waters. Coastal areas may see winds between 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Further inland and along the the southwest coast, winds will generally be between 10 and 15 mph. However, highlights have also been added for the Lake and Gulf waters where winds will be between 15 and 25 kts through Wednesday night.

Precipitation for Wednesday looks less than Tuesday, with activity looking to focus along the stalled front and just north of the sfc low. Increased northeast flow along Palm Beach and Broward could lead to another round of coastal convergence induced storms, which could lead to some higher rain amounts. Overall, amounts look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range, with some locally heavier amounts of 3 to 4 inches. Given the wet antecedent conditions from the previous day, minor urban flooding will also be a possibility for the Atlantic coast urban areas.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

By Thursday, the longwave troughing pattern will begin to shift east as high pressure ridging begins to build over the Gulf. Drier air aloft will begin to push into the region behind the trough. This drier and more stable airmass will decrease chances of precipitation, but persistent northeast flow will keep high chances along the Atlantic coast where coastal convergence will still provide enough forcing for scattered showers to form. There is less concern for urban flooding and heavy rain given that PWATs drop down to around 1.35 inches (still 75th percentile), and dynamics aloft are less favorable than the last few days. Ensemble clusters are still showing a stronger signal for the Atlantic coast, where another 1 to 2 inches may fall with some localized heavier amounts, but anything more than that is very unlikely.

PWATs look to drop below an inch heading into the end of the week as a drier and more stable air mass takes a hold over the Deep South. Winds will shift more northerly as surface high pressure begins to build over southern Georgia and northern Florida, which will help to usher that drier air further south. Conditions still look to be quite breezy, particularly over the waters, where hazardous marine and beach conditions look to persist. By the end of the weekend, models are hinting at a 585-590 dm high building over north Florida, which should keep rain chances low across the state and temperatures climbing into the mid 80s.

MARINE

Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Tuesday will be a transition day back to breezier conditions as a strong area of high pressure builds down the Eastern Seaboard and the Florida Peninsula. Expect periods of moderate to heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds (both coasts) and seas (east coast) will remain elevated through the entire week as strong high pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Tuesday night through Wednesday for the Atlantic waters, Gulf waters, and Lake Okeechobee where wave heights may be as high as 11 feet and winds up to 30 kts. Stronger gusts between 30 and 35 kts will be possible for the waters offshore of Palm Beach, but guidance is currently showing only a 30% chance of sustained winds exceeding 30kts.

Winds look to peak on Wednesday before diminish overnight back down into the 15 to 20 kt range. Brisk northeast flow will remain through the end of the week, particularly for the Atlantic waters off the coast of Palm Beach, where winds will still be near 25 kts on Friday. Will need to monitor to determine whether marine highlights will be extended into the weekend, but conditions will be choppy regardless, with wave heights between 6 and 8 feet across the Atlantic coast.

BEACHES

Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

The threat of rip currents will drastically increase late Tuesday through Wednesday as onshore flow increases in response to high pressure spreading down the Peninsula. In addition to rips, surf heights will build on Tuesday across the Palm beaches and peak along the entire east coast on Wednesday, with peak breakers between 7-10 ft. Surf heights will decrease towards the end of the week, but a high risk of rip currents will remain going into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 68 81 70 / 80 30 70 50 West Kendall 84 65 83 66 / 70 20 70 40 Opa-Locka 83 68 83 69 / 80 30 70 50 Homestead 84 68 83 70 / 70 20 60 40 Fort Lauderdale 80 68 79 69 / 90 30 80 60 N Ft Lauderdale 80 68 78 69 / 90 40 80 60 Pembroke Pines 83 69 82 71 / 80 30 80 60 West Palm Beach 78 68 77 68 / 90 40 90 70 Boca Raton 79 68 77 69 / 90 40 80 70 Naples 80 67 83 68 / 60 20 60 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ610-650-670.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ651-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ656-657-676.