textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 - Heat stress indices will generally be a level 2 of 4 the next few days which could result in heat illness during prolonged exposure if precautions are not taken.

- Hottest afternoons will be Sunday and Monday.

- Rain chances remain high each day, with the exception of Saturday, when storms may be less numerous.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

We begin the period with a northern stream trough across the Northeast and into the northwest Atlantic, a shortwave across the Plains and Lower MS Valley, and a narrow negatively tilted ridge axis from the Northern Plains down through the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes, with a frontal boundary extending from the northwestern Atlantic low, through the Southeast, and connecting with the surface reflection of the Plains shortwave. Locally we remain in a very moist environment as SSW flow around the western periphery of the Bermuda High advects tropical moisture across the Gulf and state of Florida. Absent any deep layer forcing, we'll rely on the seabreeze for today's convection. The generally westerly flow will keep the Atlantic seabreeze pretty close to the coast today with convective activity initiating along it around 17 or 18z. Storms may become a little more robust and widespread as the Gulf breeze reaches the east coast and boundary interactions prevail. Additionally, because steering flow further up the Peninsula is more northwesterly, we could actually get evening convection moving into south Florida from the north after our more typical seabreeze convection wraps up.

On Saturday, the Plains shortwave will advect through the Southeast and spread some mid/upper dry air across the state. There will still be enough low-level moisture to initiate convection along the seabreezes, but it should be a bit more suppressed due to the dry air aloft. Further, with steering flow more purely out of the west throughout the state, we likely won't have to worry about evening convection from the north. The focus area for storms that are able to develop will be along the east coast.

Max temperatures each afternoon will range from the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Uncertainty in the extended range revolves around how the omega pattern across the CONUS breaks down. The global ensembles generally agree on the strength and placement of the next northern stream shortwave moving through the Northeast this weekend, as well as the cutoff low across the western US. The differences start to be introduced early next week as another shortwave dives out of Quebec/Ontario and phases with the western US wave. It appears these disagreements have little influence on the sensible weather locally. Generally speaking, the eastern CONUS trough will sag further down the Eastern Seaboard, pushing a frontal boundary slowly into and through much of Florida.

The aforementioned Plains shortwave that moved through the Southeast to start the weekend will exit into the Atlantic on Saturday night and result in surface cyclogenesis in the western Atlantic. While we may have some dry air aloft to contend with on Sunday, at least along the east coast we should get some decent moisture advection around the back side of the maturing low. With WNW steering flow, expect the seabreeze to remain pinned across the east coast and be relatively active. Again we'll have the potential for convection moving out of central Florida in the evening as well.

We'll moisten up across south Florida into early next week as the front sags further south and moisture advection from the Gulf increases.

Expect maximum temperatures to be the warmest on Sunday and Monday, peaking in the lower 90s. This, plus the low-level moisture, will help drive heat indices up closer to 105 each afternoon. Slightly lower temperatures are expected as we head towards mid-week as rain chances increase area-wide.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

SHRA/TSRA is forecast to develop this afternoon before waning in coverage after 01-03z this evening. Winds will remain light across the region, becoming erratic and gusty in and around SHRA/TSRA activity. Additional TEMPOs and short fused amendments may be needed for east coast terminals depending on radar trends. Light and variable winds are forecast after sunset tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

While winds across the Gulf are expected to be out of the west today, the Atlantic will take another 12 hours or so to veer around westerly. Then, gentle westerly winds will prevail (away from the seabreeze) for the next several days. Low seas will prevail through the weekend, but a northerly swell from high pressure building into the western Atlantic may increase seas across the Gulf Stream early next week. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 89 77 91 / 40 40 10 80 West Kendall 74 90 75 92 / 40 40 10 70 Opa-Locka 76 90 77 93 / 40 40 10 80 Homestead 77 90 77 92 / 40 40 10 70 Fort Lauderdale 77 88 77 90 / 40 30 10 80 N Ft Lauderdale 76 88 77 90 / 40 30 10 80 Pembroke Pines 77 91 78 94 / 40 40 10 80 West Palm Beach 77 89 77 90 / 40 40 20 80 Boca Raton 77 89 78 90 / 40 40 10 80 Naples 79 89 80 90 / 10 10 10 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.