textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 730 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions continue through the end of the work week for the Atlantic waters. Hazardous winds and seas for all local waters return this weekend. - High risk of rip currents continues for the Atlantic beaches, and will likely last at least into early next week. In addition, high surf conditions continue for the Palm Beaches.

- Moderate coastal flooding is expected to continue around high tide along the east coast. A low, 10-30% chance of major coastal flooding is possible beginning during the second half of the upcoming weekend.

- Heavy rain, isolated flash flooding, and windy conditions are forecast for this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Low-level trough just north of the Bahamas, embedded in the general N-NE wind flow, is skirting the Florida east coast this morning and helping to trigger scattered showers along and offshore the Palm Beach County coast. Hi-res/short range models are handling this scenario fairly well, and depict a southward spread of the showers mainly over the nearshore Atlantic waters but skirting the east coast metro from time to time through much of the day. Current forecast PoPs are handling this well so no changes needed to the forecast at this time except to increase cloud cover southward along the east coast this morning.

NOS tide gauges are peaking in the minor flood stage at the current high tide, except bordering on moderate at Lake Worth Pier. These levels continue slightly above guidance, so current expectation of moderate flood levels with upcoming high tides over the next several days is on track.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the TN Valley, and Subtropical Storm Josephine off the New England coast. At the upper levels, the ridge over the center of the country continues to nose eastward and a trough is slowly deepening over the eastern third of the country. Latest 00Z sounding shows plenty of dry air at the mid and upper levels, with some low level moisture to support widely scattered coastal showers today. Winds will continue to be out of the NNE and gusting to around 20-25 mph this afternoon. High temps will be in the low to middle 80s. Scattered coastal showers will continue overnight with mainly dry conditions over the interior and SW FL. Overnight lows will be comfortable ranging from the low to mid 60s around the lake region, the lower 70s closer to the coast.

As the trough continues to deepen on Friday and an upper low starts to develop off the SE US coast late in the day, low level moisture will start to increase with PWAT values nosing up to around 1.5 inches. Forecast soundings still show plenty of dry air aloft, but the shower activity should be more increased across the east coast metro compared to the past several days. Could even see some isolated thunderstorms near the coast. NE winds will be pick up a bit on Friday, with wind gusts of 20-30 mph possible, especially along the coast. Afternoon high temps will again be in the low to middle 80s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

As we head into the weekend and into early next week, a multi hazard event will be taking shape as an upper level low lingers in the region and strong surface high pressure builds into the eastern US. Enhanced moisture around the upper low will bring rounds of showers, heavy at times, to SE FL from Saturday through Monday. While mean QPF values have trended downward the past several days, 1-3 inches is still expected across the east coast metro, with localized higher end amounts of 4-6 inches possible. This rain combined with the higher king tides this weekend may present some flooding issues. WPC has a Slight risk of excessive rain across the metro both days this weekend. The other main story will be the gusty winds this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens. NE winds will gust 25-35 mph on Saturday and 30-40 mph on Sunday.

Conditions begin to improve Tuesday into mid week as the upper low pulls away from the region to the northeast and with it the deeper moisture will exit the area. There will still be scattered coastal showers around both days, but the rainfall flooding threat will decrease.

Fairly comfortable temperatures are expected this weekend into next week with high temps generally in the low to middle 80s, and low temps each day in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 730 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with a predominant BKN occasionally OVC layer 050-060. SHRA over the nearshore Atlantic waters will skirt the east coast and could briefly affect some of the terminals for much of the period. Main impact will be brief MVFR ceiling/visibility, primarily at KDJT through about 14z, with lower confidence at the remainder of the terminals where VCSH is indicated. Wind 330-350 degrees near 10 knots through 15z-17z, becoming 020-030 degrees after 17z.

MARINE

Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Hazardous seas will continue in the Atlantic waters the rest of the week with seas of 5-8 ft. NE winds 15-20 kts through Friday for all local waters.

Hazardous winds and seas return for all local waters this weekend into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Gale force winds are possible in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters this weekend.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

We're beginning to come out of an ebb in the astronomical tides as we head towards the full moon and peak of the tide forecasts late this weekend and into early next week. Observed water-levels are already over-performing predictions and we'll likely begin reaching Moderate flooding thresholds this evening at all of our east coast tidal stations. It's also not out of the question that Palm Beach county may even reach Major flooding levels at the peak of the King Tide.

The normal King Tides are complicated by the fact that we'll be dealing with a complex upper/surface low pressure pattern that will feature an approaching front from the north and convection rising out of the Caribbean from the south. This will likely increase the onshore wind component and magnify the already high tides. This is somewhat accounted for in the predictions mentioned above, but only crudely. Furthermore, the potential for heavy rainfall during periods of high tide is also something to be aware of that could further aggravate coastal flooding. In short, we're heading into what could be a rather impactful period for coastal flooding and sensitive locations should consider preparations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 83 71 83 72 / 40 30 50 40 West Kendall 84 70 84 70 / 30 20 50 30 Opa-Locka 83 70 83 71 / 40 30 50 40 Homestead 84 70 84 71 / 30 30 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 82 71 82 72 / 50 40 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 82 71 82 72 / 50 30 50 50 Pembroke Pines 83 70 83 71 / 40 30 50 40 West Palm Beach 82 70 82 72 / 40 40 50 40 Boca Raton 82 71 82 72 / 50 40 50 50 Naples 84 66 84 67 / 0 0 20 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.