textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Much drier today with a few showers possible over southwest areas this afternoon.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts again expected today with widespread triple-digit heat index values, even briefly touching 110 degrees possible.

- Rain chances will begin increasing once again on Tuesday ahead of an approaching front.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Unusually dry conditions today across the area, as the 12 UTC sounding this morning showed precipitable water (PWAT) levels in the lowest 10th percentile at KMFL. Calendar does confirm it is still June, so inland thunderstorms are still in the cards for this afternoon over Mainland Monroe County. Usual pattern continues overnight and early Tuesday, yet like this morning, tomorrow morning should have only a few coastal showers.

Tuesday then continues the pattern, except for a frontal boundary moving into Central Florida. This will produce a few more thunderstorms north of us, yet once again be mainly in the inland areas...but Tuesday afternoon will have more convection that what we are seeing today. PWAT values return to more seasonable levels, and that will unfortunately allow for additional thunderstorms for much of the rest of the week.

Heat index values this afternoon remain in the 100-105 levels, keeping things uncomfortable, despite the unseasonable PWAT levels throughout the entire column.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Much wetter pattern begins Tuesday night through much of the week. Cloud cover will increase as the synoptic pattern becomes much more active, with higher daily rain chances align on the sea breezes each day. With boundary interactions and weak upper flow, slow moving storms in the late afternoon and evening will produce localized flooding in spots.

This general pattern will continue through Independence Day, as afternoon thunderstorm chances approach 60-80% each day in the interior, while coastal chances will be in the 40-50% range.

Heat will also be a problem, despite the cloud cover and thunderstorm chances. Heat index values will be at least very quite close to local criteria of 105 and will be monitored closely.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR to MVFR ceilings will prevail for the next 24-36 hours for the most part. Very low potential for thunderstorms today along the east coast yet isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely across inland South Florida. KAPF will get a southwesterly breeze today, with easterly flow continuing along the east coast.

MARINE

Issued at 410 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

High pressure remains in control of the region through the first half of the week with light to moderate SSE winds over the Atlantic waters, becoming SSW over the Gulf waters with afternoon sea breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Tuesday, and continue through the rest of the forecast period as a frontal boundary reaches central Florida. Thunderstorms may produce locally strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain at 2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 94 79 92 / 0 20 30 80 West Kendall 76 95 77 93 / 0 30 20 80 Opa-Locka 79 95 79 94 / 0 30 30 80 Homestead 79 93 79 93 / 0 20 30 70 Fort Lauderdale 80 93 80 92 / 0 20 30 80 N Ft Lauderdale 79 93 80 91 / 0 20 30 80 Pembroke Pines 80 97 81 95 / 0 20 30 80 West Palm Beach 78 93 79 91 / 0 30 30 80 Boca Raton 80 93 80 91 / 0 20 30 80 Naples 79 93 78 93 / 20 40 50 80

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.