textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 646 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will focus mostly across Southwest Florida this evening and Thursday.

- Heat index values will range from 100-105 across Southeast Florida and up to 105-110 across Southwest Florida tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 516 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Low level ascent and confluence along the Gulf breeze across inland southwestern Florida has resulted in the development of a broken line of showers with embedded isolated thunderstorm activity. Activity has remained largely meager in nature largely due to copious amounts of residual dry air in the vertical column. The continued foci of any convective activity will remain on the boundary over the next several hours. Outside of occasional lightning strikes with the taller convective cores, breezy winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concern. Precipitable water values continue on the upward trend and with easterly flow overnight, will once again support the chance for shower activity across the eastern half of the region late tonight into early Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Not much change in the pattern for today through Thursday as Tropical Storm Bertha continues to slowly work further westward away from the area and surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic expands more over South Florida. This will cause low level flow to become more easterly, which will shift the focus for shower and thunderstorm development towards Southwest Florida and the interior over the next couple days, although the east coast metro is likely to see some morning shower activity due to speed convergence. PWATs are expected to climb a little closer to climatological norms at around 1.4-1.6" on average across the area, which is between the 10th-25th percentile for this time of year. Even though it's a little below normal, this amount of moisture should provide enough support for diurnal heating and the sea breezes to spark some convective showers and storms across the region. Hi-res model soundings also highlight moisture filling in pretty well from the 700mb height level and below. Nevertheless, much drier air is still expected to be present above the 700mb height level, suggesting that most activity across the region will be of a shallower and weaker variety. However, it is definitely possible to get a couple of isolated robust storm cores to develop. Sounding parameters indicate SBCAPE and MLCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg, while DCAPE is in excess of 1000-1200 J/kg particularly in SW Florida along with inverted-V soundings. Therefore, if a stronger core develops, it could produce a downburst of gusty winds that approaches marginally- severe levels, although most likely staying in the sub-severe category.

Heading into Thursday, an upper-level trough will advect across Cuba and the Florida Straits with the brunt of this energy staying away from South Florida. The main impact from this will be an increase in deeper moisture with potential for increasingly widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will still act as a suppressor, but diurnal heating and the sea breezes will eventually be able to take advantage of the deeper moisture and ignite convective initiation. As easterly flow becomes even more established on Thursday, the focus for the most widespread showers and storms will be across SW Florida as the Gulf breeze gets pinned closer to the coast.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will remain in the low to mid 90s for most areas, although some interior locations might reach the upper 90s. Because of the drier air arriving, no Heat Advisory has been issued due to this drier air helping to lower dew points and relative humidity by a few degrees. This is expected to result in the region avoiding reaching Heat Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A strong ridge pattern across the western US will continue to expand across to even the southeastern US while surface high pressure remains parked over the Florida Peninsula. This pattern will prevent troughing across most of the Eastern Seaboard from pushing further south, which is expected to keep the local weather primarily sea breeze driven, although some vorticity advection from the upper- level low tracking across Cuba could provide extra support for shower and thunderstorm development on Friday as even deeper moisture returns to the region. Highest rain chances would remain across SW Florida as low level flow remains easterly around the ridge. For the weekend time period, troughing becomes enhanced across the Eastern Seaboard due to the strengthening ridge producing a quasi-meriodional flow at jet stream level. Energy from this trough could push far enough south for Sunday and into early next week, but this still remains uncertain given it is near the end of the forecast period. Regardless, after a brief lull in increased rain shower and thunderstorm activity, the pattern looks to become more active over the next week.

High temperatures each day will continue to reach the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will range from the low 70s for interior South Florida to the upper 70s and low 80s near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Potential for Heat Advisories will continue with each day assessed carefully due to most days being a marginal scenario.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

SHRA/TSRA will continue to decrease in coverage across SWFL this evening with mainly VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals. L/V winds are forecast overnight with winds picking up out of a easterly direction after sunrise. A gulf breeze is forecast to develop once again at KAPF which is forecast to shift winds to a NWrly direction. SHRA/TSRA will focus mainly across western areas once again on Thursday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A moderate southeasterly wind flow will be in place across the local waters today and is expected to become more easterly to northeasterly for the end of the week as surface high pressure expands further across the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. Seas across the Gulf waters will range from 2-3 feet with the Atlantic at 2 feet or less into the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A moderate risk for rip currents continues for the Collier beaches today. This risk is expected to subside after today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 93 80 92 / 20 20 40 30 West Kendall 77 93 77 93 / 10 30 40 40 Opa-Locka 80 94 80 93 / 10 20 40 40 Homestead 80 92 79 92 / 10 30 50 30 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 81 91 / 20 20 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 81 91 80 91 / 20 20 50 40 Pembroke Pines 81 93 81 93 / 10 20 40 40 West Palm Beach 79 92 79 91 / 20 20 60 40 Boca Raton 81 90 80 90 / 20 20 50 50 Naples 76 94 77 92 / 30 40 20 80

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.