textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 718 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions: Atlantic waters through Saturday, Gulf waters through early this afternoon.

- A high risk of rip currents will continue today for the east coast beaches.

- Temperatures continue to gradually warm up through the rend of rest of the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1230 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Lingering light showers continue to move southward along the Atlantic coast this morning and early afternoon. Showers should continue to decay during the day as forcing aloft decreases, with chances of precipitation dropping below 15% during the middle afternoon. Winds will shift a little more northeasterly as a surface high pressure center begins to slide towards northwest Florida. Similar to yesterday, prevailing wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph will be common, with gusts as strong as 25 mph. These breezy conditions will lead to continued hazardous surf conditions along the Atlantic coast, where a High Risk of Rip Currents and a Small Craft Advisory will remain through the rest of today. Winds over the gulf waters subside sooner, so the Small Craft Advisory has been dropped there. Aside from scattered cumulus, conditions across SoFlo will generally be sunnier today when compared to the last few days.

Subsidence from high pressure over the eastern Gulf will keep conditions mostly dry and sunny through the weekend across South Florida. Winds become more light and variable and with typical diurnal sea breeze regimes along the immediate coasts. Temperatures continue to trend up each day, climbing into the low 80s for Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Models continue to show ridging across the Gulf and the Florida peninsula remaining in place through early next week. Overall subsidence will result in a relatively stable airmass and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies each day through Tuesday. The ridge axis will linger over the region with winds becoming light and variable at times. Efficient daytime heating and low cloud cover will allow for afternoon temps to climb back into the mid-upper 80s on Sunday, a trend that will persist through the rest of the long term.

Long range models remain in fair agreement regarding a low/trough complex over the E CONUS pushing an associated cold front boundary into Florida by late Tuesday. But so far solutions show the front stalling over the northern portions of the peninsula, with most of its enhanced moisture likely lingering over central Florida. Best POPs remain low with 15- 25 percent range in latest model solutions, including NBM, for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 718 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR prevails for the TAF period. Gusty winds taper off after 01-02Z this evening and are expected to shift slightly back to a north-northwest direction around 6-8 kts for the overnight hours. By 15Z, winds will be shifting back to a northeast direction followed by an east-northeast direction by 18Z. At KAPF, a gulf breeze will shift winds to the northwest after 16Z.

MARINE

Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Robust NNE winds and elevated seas will keep hazardous conditions over the Atlantic waters through Saturday. Hazardous winds expected through early this afternoon in the Gulf waters, remaining cautionary through the rest of today. Seas in the Atlantic 5-8 ft, and 3-6 ft in the Gulf. Scattered showers are expected today in the Atlantic waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

An elevated N/NE swell will keep a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 61 79 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 56 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 61 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 61 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 62 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 62 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 61 80 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 61 78 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 62 77 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 58 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.