textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 110 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Moisture gradually returns to the region today, with the potential of a few showers south of Alligator Alley this afternoon.

- Afternoon apparent temperatures will increase from the upper 90s today to 100-105F during the afternoon hours of Thursday and Friday. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

DRY conditions continue this afternoon across South Florida so, enjoy it while you can as this short taste of wintery/dry season that we've been enjoying will not hang around forever. As of 19Z, there is a steep precipitable water gradient running from northwest to the southeast across South Florida with values ranging from 0.9 and 1.0 inch near Naples and West Palm Beach respectively, to 1.6 over Miami. Ensemble guidance points to low rainfall probabilities for tonight, but a brief shower can not be ruled out for the south- eastern portion of the eastern metro due to the before mentioned elevated moisture aloft. There is little in the way of forcing so any showers would be shallow and fleeting. Starting tonight and continuing into tomorrow a mid-level ridge and associated surface high pressure will slide over the area from the west and begin to disrupt the pattern responsible for the pleasantly dry conditions. (Sorry to dampen the mood.) As the surface high-pressure builds to our northeast, the current northeasterly surface winds will shift more easterly and then east-southeasterly over the next 48 hours. These winds will scoop up tropical moisture en route and push the dry airmass back north, and summer-like conditions will return by Thursday.

Temperatures tonight will be very pleasant and range from the low 80s near sunset, to the mid 70s before sunrise tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon's temperatures will be a rinse and repeat from today, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Northeasterly surface flow will gradually veer to an easterly direction by Thursday as the axis of surface ridging across the southeastern United States slides eastward into the western Atlantic waters. This will focus the best diurnal rain chances across the western half of the peninsula during the second half of the work week, although overnight and morning activity will still be a possibility along the east coast of South Florida given the breezy easterly flow and continued moisture advection. Mid-level ridging briefly established across the southeastern United States during the early to mid portion of the work week will quickly flatten by Thursday as the next lobe of troughing slides eastward across the northern United States. As the positively tilted trough amplifies and digs across the eastern United States, a strengthening surface low will strengthen and push east-northeastward in tandem. Model guidance remains in agreement that a surface frontal boundary attached to the aforementioned surface low will push southwards across the eastern United States in response and arrive in the vicinity of the Florida Peninsula during the upcoming weekend. There remains a great amount of variability/ uncertainty in model solutions of exact frontal boundary placement) from run to run and model member to model member (ensemble vs deterministic). Model guidance has trended away from a full passage of the boundary across the region and now depicts an initial stall of the boundary somewhere across the Florida Peninsula.

The placement of the aforementioned frontal boundary in relation to South Florida, surface high pressure axis to the north, and any mesoscale coastal convergence will have a direct influence on potential rainfall totals, wind gusts, and the severity of any marine/coastal impacts across the region during the upcoming weekend into next week. Forecasted precipitable water and low level RH values (via forecast soundings) during this time period appear to approach the daily max for this time of year, indicative of an airmass that is saturated in the low level boundary layer. 500mb temperatures are also forecast to be on the warmer side which may support an expansive warm cloud layer. Outside of the heavy rain, guidance has also been consistent in showing the enhancement of a pressure gradient across the western Atlantic and South Florida. This would act to increase wind speeds across the area, resulting in gusty conditions and potential marine and coastal impacts. The forecast remains highly uncertain and fluid, stay tuned for a clearer idea of what may happen as we progress through the remainder of the work week. Forecast high temperatures will remain status quo through the end of the work week with values in the upper 80s to low 90s possible each afternoon. Apparent temperatures will also rebound with increased moisture, reaching the upper 90s to low 100s on Thursday and Friday. An increase in wind and rain chances may keep ambient and apparent temperatures lower beginning during the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Light and variable surface winds will prevail through daybreak before breezy ENErly winds prevail across the region. Isolated SHRA is possible in the vicinity of terminals south of Alligator Alley today but confidence is too low to include VCSH in the TAFs at this time. L/V winds forecast once again overnight with winds quickly lessening in strength after sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Breezy northeasterly winds will prevail across the local waters of South Florida today. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions could be realized at times across the Atlantic and Gulf waters through Wednesday night as winds enhance and lessen with nocturnal/diurnal cycles. Waves will remain 2-3 feet across the region through early Thursday with the caveat that locally higher waves and winds are possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity beginning on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 78 89 78 / 20 30 30 20 West Kendall 88 77 90 77 / 30 30 30 20 Opa-Locka 88 78 90 78 / 20 30 30 20 Homestead 88 78 90 78 / 40 30 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 87 78 88 78 / 20 40 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 88 78 89 78 / 20 40 40 20 Pembroke Pines 88 77 89 78 / 20 40 30 20 West Palm Beach 88 77 89 77 / 10 40 50 20 Boca Raton 88 78 88 78 / 10 40 40 30 Naples 90 74 90 74 / 10 10 60 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.