textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Cold temperatures Friday morning, with Freeze Warnings in effect for Glades and Hendry, and Cold Weather Advisories in effect for much of the rest of South FL. Additional cold temperatures are expected early next week.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue through early Friday morning for the Gulf waters and through at least mid day for the Atlantic waters.

UPDATE

Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Cold front has just crossed Lake Okeechobee early this afternoon and will continue it's march through the rest of South FL through early this evening. Breezy conditions are expected this afternoon through early this evening with gusts of 25-35 mph possible. Cold air will filter into the region with temps tomorrow morning rivaling the cold weather experienced around the beginning of the year. Felt that NBM was too warm especially around the lake, so went a tad below guidance. Much of Glades and Hendry should fall to 32 or below by sunrise tomorrow morning, with the Palmdale area likely dropping into the upper 20s. Mid to upper 30s is expected over the rest of interior South FL, and lower 40s are expected closer to the coasts, including FLL and MIA. Freeze Warnings remain in place for Glades and Hendry, and Cold Weather Advisories are in place for the rest of South FL except for the Coastal Atlantic zones.

Went a bit below guidance for Saturday morning as well, but even with that temps will be warm enough to prevent any headlines. Next chance for potential cold headlines will be Sunday night into Monday morning after the arrival of the next cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Models remain in good agreement with the passage of a strong frontal boundary today, with the bulk of the showers ahead of the front expected during the mid-late morning hours. CAM/NBM max POPs remain in the 50-60 percent range as the boundary pushes across the area. Model PWATs remain around 1.5", along with HREF-QPF max around 1", which will translate in scattered to numerous showers through the late morning hours with moderate rainfall rates expected. In terms of convection, the combination of very poor CAPE/MUCAPE values and the prevailing cloud cover restraining daytime heating will result in little dynamic support for thunderstorm activity. Any isolated storm that develops will likely be near the coastline. The main concerns will begin this afternoon and evening as winds behind the FROPA shift NW will mark the onset of robust cold air advection. Coldest temperatures across SoFLo on Friday morning will drop into freezing values (30-31F) over Glades and portions of Hendry counties. A Freeze Warning has been issued for those areas, for which residents should take protective actions like bringing sensitive plants indoors, shelter pets, and ensure wearing warm clothing if going outside.

Another cold related issue will be wind chills with the northerly flow. Latest ensemble/global guidance show appT values in the mid- upper 20s for northern/interior areas of SoFlo, and up to upper 30s over the coastal metro areas. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has also been issued for much of the rest of SoFlo, except the metro areas closest to the coastlines. But even residents in those areas should wear warm clothing if going outside early in the morning.

Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal/warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Broad high pressure expands across the region with temperatures gradually warming up a bit on Saturday, but still remaining around the low-mid 70s. Persisting subsidence will keep near zero chances of rain across SoFlo, with maybe a few coastal showers over the Atlantic waters during Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal/warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s.

By Sunday, latest global solutions remain on track showing the onset of another cool down period as a another frontal boundary reaches the area. No significant rain impacts are anticipated as this should be a relatively dry FROPA during the late Sunday/Monday morning timeframe. Lows may drop into the 30s and 40s, with Monday afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

High pressure returns in the wake of the front with prevailing N/NE winds and near zero chances of rain through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR prevails during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Winds become NNE throughout the day, with possible periods of L/V flow at times, especially over APF.

MARINE

Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Winds shift to the WNW then NW by late this afternoon with a cold front passage across the area. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for all coastal waters and the Lake with wind speeds up to 25- 30kt will be possible.

Scattered to numerous showers will also accompany the frontal passage with most rain activity expected during the morning hours. Conditions should begin to quickly subside Friday morning.

BEACHES

Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

A strong northerly wind surge will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf advisory conditions across the Gulf beaches later today. The high risk is likely to last into mid- week as winds shift to an east-northeast direction.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 69 59 74 64 / 0 0 20 20 West Kendall 69 53 76 59 / 0 0 10 20 Opa-Locka 69 57 76 63 / 0 0 20 20 Homestead 70 57 77 63 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 68 59 74 62 / 0 0 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 68 59 74 63 / 0 0 20 20 Pembroke Pines 69 56 75 61 / 0 0 20 20 West Palm Beach 68 56 74 61 / 0 0 20 20 Boca Raton 69 58 75 61 / 0 0 20 20 Naples 66 50 73 59 / 0 0 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063- 066>075-174.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066.

High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ069.

High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for AMZ610-630.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ650- 651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GMZ656-657- 676.