textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- A high risk of rip currents remains in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches through Saturday evening. - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue today and through the rest of the weekend. Best chances of thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.

- High temperatures will climb back into the low 90s in many areas of South Florida, along with Heat Index values in the low-mid 100s.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Guidance consensus, including ensembles, show mid-lvl ridging gradually drifting southward across the SE CONUS and into northern FL today as a trough/low complex develops around the mid-west states. Meanwhile, the ridge axis of the Atlantic high slides further west and lingers north of the area, keeping a generally E/SE wind regime in place through the short term.

Latest satellite water vapor imagery shows some pockets of mid-lvl drier air filtering into the area, which will act as temporary caps to convective activity today. NBM POPs drop into the 20-50% range for much of SoFlo today, then gradually increasing into the 40-60% range by Saturday.

PWATs should remain just above 2", while 500 mb temps warm up a little to around -5C and SBCAPE will remain in the 1.5K-2K j/kg range. This will keep potential for strong to severe cells rather limited, but can't rule out a few strong or an isolated severe storm, especially over interior/western SoFlo. Greatest threat will be localized flooding with the heaviest downpours.

Cloud coverage should break during the morning hours and allow for some additional heating to push afternoon highs back into the U80s- L90s today and on Saturday. Heat index values may also climb back into the low-mid 100s across much of the area.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Long range guidance depicts a summer-like pattern prevailing on Sunday with the Atlantic high ridge axis lingering just north of the area. This will keep a generally E/ESE wind regime in place and allow for afternoon convection to initiate along the east coast sea breeze boundary. Convection will then gradually push inland and west through the late afternoon and early evening hours each day.

Models remain fairly consistent in showing a rather sharp gradient of POPs Sunday afternoon with 30-40% for the Atlantic metro areas, and upwards of 70% for the Gulf coast. Then, a return to a more widespread wet and unsettled pattern is shown by guidance during the first half of next week as a trough deepens over the E CONUS. Models also show an associated sfc boundary reaching the northern portions of the state in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. However, regardless of the final outcome, guidance in general show coverage becoming widespread by late Monday. Highest NBM POPs will be well into the 80% range by Tuesday afternoon, and remaining around that range through the end of the work week.

Temperatures will remain warm during the long term with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s, along with Heat Index values in the low-mid 100s each afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

East to southeast winds 10-15 kts today with scattered showers this morning and scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early evening, which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A moderate to fresh east southeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters through early next week. Wind speeds may surge close to 20kt at times, with small craft exercise caution conditions likely, especially during the afternoon hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day through the forecast period.

Gulf Stream Hazards: None.

BEACHES

Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A High Risk if Rip Currents remains in effect for all Atlantic beaches through Saturday evening. Please follow all posted safety measures at local beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 79 89 79 / 30 30 40 20 West Kendall 88 78 89 78 / 20 30 30 10 Opa-Locka 88 78 89 78 / 30 30 40 20 Homestead 88 79 89 79 / 30 40 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 89 79 / 30 40 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 88 79 89 79 / 30 40 50 30 Pembroke Pines 88 78 89 78 / 30 30 50 20 West Palm Beach 89 78 89 78 / 40 50 50 20 Boca Raton 88 78 89 78 / 40 50 60 30 Naples 89 76 89 75 / 60 20 60 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.