textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 702 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again today through the early evening hours. The stronger thunderstorms could contain gusty winds and frequent lightning. - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow moving storms creates the potential for localized flooding especially over the urban and poor drainage areas. - High temperatures may remain slightly cooler, but still in the upper 80s to low 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 415 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Overall synoptic pattern across the region remains similar to the previous days, except for a TUTT feature aloft pushing westward from the Bahamas and through the area during the short term. At the sfc, the W Atl ridge axis will expand into the NE portions of the peninsula, while U/L high pressure remains over the SE CONUS. Expect the current light to moderate E/SE wind regime to continue today, and keeping deep-layered moisture streaming across SoFlo.

The airmass will remain saturated each day, with sounding and model PWATs above 2 inches. Afternoon model CAPE values in the 2500-4K J/Kg range along with steeper lapse rates will provide enough instability for a few strong thunderstorms.

Latest NBM and ensembles continue to respond aggressively to the influx of additional moisture reaching the area from the remnants of Dolly, with max POPs now steadily in the 70-80% range each day, well above seasonal normals. The only adjustments from previous forecast packages is that the high POP coverage is becoming more widespread with each model run cycle. Best chances for showers and storms remain during the afternoon/early evening hours, with hazards including frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain.

The wind vertical profile remains fairly weak (0-8km <=10kt), which will continue to keep storm motion slow or even stationary at times. This may result in heavy downpours producing localized flooding, especially over urban areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows the whole state under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) today.

The increased cloud cover and rain activity may help in keeping afternoon highs slightly cooler today with upper 80s to low 90s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 415 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Long range forecast philosophy remains consistent with a wet and convective weather pattern in place. The W Atl ridge axis pushes south and moves closer to, or even over SoFlo, basically reducing winds to a light sout-southwest flow. Periods of calm winds are also possible even during the afternoon hours, with sea breeze boundaries becoming the focal point for deeper convection.

NBM and long-range guidance remain very aggressive with POPs across the area, with max values in the 80-90% range through the weekend, and still lingering the 70-80% range early next week. PWATs, dew points, rainfall estimates all remain above or well above seasonal normals through the long term. Best chances for strong convection will happen along the East coast sea breeze around the Atlantic metro areas early in the afternoon, then pushing inland during the late afternoon hours. In addition, outflow boundary interactions may spark late afternoon/evening storms over the metro areas at times. Hazards will include gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably hot each day, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows should remain in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Light and variable winds early this morning becoming SE around 10 kts this afternoon across the east coast terminals and westerly at APF. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 415 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A gentle to moderate east southeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters through the weekend. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become more south southwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each day. Gusty and erratic winds, along with brief periods of rough seas, will be possible in and around thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 89 79 90 81 / 60 30 60 50 West Kendall 89 78 89 78 / 70 20 60 40 Opa-Locka 90 78 90 80 / 60 30 60 40 Homestead 90 78 90 81 / 50 20 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 89 80 / 60 30 60 50 N Ft Lauderdale 90 79 90 81 / 70 30 60 40 Pembroke Pines 90 79 90 80 / 60 30 60 40 West Palm Beach 91 78 92 79 / 70 40 60 40 Boca Raton 89 80 89 81 / 60 40 60 50 Naples 90 77 91 77 / 50 30 50 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.