textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 647 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 6PM tonight for coastal/metro Miami- Dade and Broward. Further heat concerns are expected for all of South FL through the end of the week.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening, mainly across Southeast Florida. Heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and poor drainage flooding.

- Smoke from wildfire activity in central Miami-Dade county will continue to drift northwards/northeastwards and could cause lower air quality that may be hazardous to sensitive populations.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A majority of the country remains under broad troughing that stretches from the plains to the east coast. However, here across the southeast U.S there is an area of surface high pressure centered out in the Atlantic along with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, currently meandering along the Texas coast southwest of Houston. This area of high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern for the short term period. In terms of rain chances, scattered rain and storm chances are expected across inland south Florida through this afternoon and evening, more so isolated towards coastal areas. Thursday will see a noticeable decrease in PoPs, with coastal areas seeing only ~10-20% while inland areas jump down to ~25-35%. With this, isolated storms remain a possibility but less coverage expected than previous days.

The heat will continue to be the main impact of the short term period as a Heat Advisory remain in effect through 6PM this evening. The HeatRisk shows Major heatRisk (Level 3 out of 4) once again on Thursday, giving the likelihood of a Heat Advisory being issued for tomorrow during the next forecast package later tonight. MaxTs on Thursday will be in the same realm as today, peaking in the mid 90s in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows tonight and Thursday night will fall into the low 70s near Lake Okeechobee to the upper 70s and low 80s near the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Heading into the long term period, surface high pressure will start weaken as PTC One progresses eastward. PTC One looks to get absorbed in the bigger upper level troughing, which will allow that troughing to creep further southward. This brings an increase in PoPs Friday afternoon and lasting into the weekend, with Friday jumping up into the ~60-70% range inland and 40-50% range along the coasts. Saturday currently looks to have the potential to be the wettest day of the period with another jump in rain and thunderstorm chances. For the most part, convection will likely be driven by sea breeze and remnant outflow boundaries during the afternoon hours each day. This more active pattern looks to last into early next week with scattered showers and storms each day in the afternoon hours.

In terms of the temperatures, not a ton of change expected in the Max and MinTs through the end of the period. Afternoon highs peak in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s to lower 80s towards the coasts. This keeps the HeatRisk likely in the Major (level 3 out of 4) category each day, with low chances of reaching Extreme HeatRisk (level 4 out 4) some days. Additionally heat indices will approach advisory criteria , 105-110F, each day. Any showers and storms that we see fire each day, may bring some brief relief from the heat.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Afternoon thunderstorms are continuing to move into eastern Florida, where sites along the Atlantic coast will either see impacts or VCTS through 01Z. Afterwards surface winds will become light and variable, with prevailing VFR conditions. After sunrise, winds will become southerly/southeasterly and increase to include gusts up to 20kts. Another round of thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon.

With the ongoing wildfire, FLL and FXE may see reduced visibilities due to smoke.

MARINE

Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Gentle to moderate southerly winds continue this afternoon across the Atlantic with gentle to moderate southwesterly winds across the Gulf. These winds will shift southeasterly for the Atlantic later this evening and southerly for the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the local waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas possible with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Light south to southwesterly winds will continue this afternoon across South Florida. Winds are likely to shift more southeasterly across Southeast Florida later tonight but remain south to southwesterly across Southwest Florida. Scattered thunderstorms today will again develop in the afternoon into early evening with most activity expected across inland and Southeast Florida. Dispersions will be good to very good today for most areas with excellent values west of Lake Okeechobee. RH values will remain well above critical values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 93 80 93 / 20 10 10 50 West Kendall 78 94 79 94 / 10 20 10 60 Opa-Locka 80 94 80 94 / 20 10 10 50 Homestead 80 93 81 93 / 10 10 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 81 92 81 92 / 30 10 10 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 92 80 92 / 30 10 10 60 Pembroke Pines 81 96 81 96 / 30 10 10 50 West Palm Beach 79 92 80 93 / 30 10 10 70 Boca Raton 81 91 81 92 / 30 10 10 60 Naples 80 92 80 92 / 0 10 0 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.