textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 226 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 will continue through the evening hours. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into this evening with the highest chances occurring over the interior and Southwest Florida. - Some of the storms may become strong to marginally severe especially across the Lake Okeechobee region. The strongest storms could have wind gusts up to 60 mph, heavy downpours, and small hail.

UPDATE

Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

With high pressure in control of the weather pattern across South Florida combined with a Saharan Air Layer intruding across the mid levels, this has helped to keep convective initiation at bay through the mid afternoon hours. This is about to change as diurnal heating has provided plenty of instability, (SB CAPE values of 3500-4500 J/kg), for convection to fire along sea breeze collisions across the interior and Southwest Florida as the rest of this afternoon progresses. With DCAPE values hovering between 1000 and 1100 J/kg, this will be supportive of strong to marginally severe wind gusts especially over the Lake Okeechobee region heading into the evening hours where instability is maximized. Some small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest storms as well with 500mb temperatures hovering between -8 and -9C. Any storms that develop will gradually diminish later this evening due to loss of diurnal heating leaving mainly dry conditions in place for most areas during the overnight hours. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the interior portions of Southwest Florida to around 80 across the east coast metro areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 420 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Model ensembles and global solutions show fair consensus regarding a shortwave trough feature remaining over the SE CONUS today, keeping deeper moisture over the northern half of the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, it seems that finally the Saharan Dust Layer will begin taming down the overall weather pattern across SoFlo today. Latest NBM and ensemble POPs/Wx coverage drops below 20 percent for most east coast locations this afternoon, 20-40% for most west coast locations. The overall weak SE flow will allow for afternoon sea breezes to again dominate, keeping the best chances of rain over interior western SoFlo as the breezes push inland.

Latest SPC Categorical outlook keeps the risk category for SoFlo as regular thunderstorms today, although guidance suggests some CAPE (around 1K j/kg), along with lingering PWATs in the 1.5-1.8" range, which among other factors may be enough for a few strong storms to develop this afternoon. But the main hazard will be again heat- related impacts. Heat index values will possibly reach advisory criteria again today, mainly over areas where convective activity becomes further suppressed (east coast metro areas for example). Latest Heat Index forecast for today show potential max values in the 105-110F range. Another Heat Advisory will be in effect, focusing on coastal metro areas and portions of interior Collier county. People should avoid risking heat illness impacts by remaining hydrated and remaining in cool locations, especially during the afternoon peak hours.

Conditions become even drier on Wednesday as the SAL intensifies and helps in further drying the air mass across SoFlo. POPs/Wx coverage drops to single digits for most coastal areas, and 20-30 percent for western interior areas as sea breezes push inland. With less cloud cover and shower activity, temperatures are expected to hit the mid- upper 90s across much of SoFlo, and even approach 100 over interior Collier county.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 420 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Models show overall high pressure dominating the region to start the long term , with weak pressure gradients resulting in generally light to moderate winds each day. Onshore flow will return this afternoon as sea breezes develop and push inland. Meanwhile, the drier Saharan air is depicted on latest model guidance as persisting through at least the end of the work week. But some lingering moisture should remain in place for at least a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms to develop each day. Sea breezes should again become the main mechanism for lifting/deep convection, especially over interior areas. Rain chances remain around 20-30%, with best chances over interior and southwest areas.

For the upcoming weekend, the Saharan dust will begin to diminish and allow for POPs to begin to slowly increase. Sea breezes will again become the main focal points for deeper convection. In terms of temperatures, highs through the long term will hit the mid-upper 90s each day. Heat advisory potential will be explored each day. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. SE winds around 10 kts across the east coast terminals this afternoon will become light and variable this evening. Scattered showers and storms will develop mainly across the interior and west coast later this afternoon into this evening. At KAPF, SW winds will increase to around 10 kts this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Periods of MVFR or IFR conditions will be possible in and around any showers or storms.

MARINE

Issued at 420 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Light to moderate easterly/southeasterly flow will continue through the upcoming weekend with low chances for showers and storms across local waters. Wave heights will range from 1-3 feet across Gulf and Atlantic waters outside of any thunderstorm that may develop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 95 80 96 / 10 10 10 10 West Kendall 76 96 77 96 / 10 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 79 96 79 97 / 10 10 10 10 Homestead 79 94 79 95 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 94 81 95 / 10 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 79 94 80 95 / 10 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 80 97 81 98 / 10 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 78 95 78 95 / 20 10 20 10 Boca Raton 79 93 79 93 / 20 10 10 10 Naples 77 95 78 95 / 20 20 20 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068>075-168- 172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.