textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 750 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

- A Frost Advisory in effect early this morning for the Lake Okeechobee Region as well as interior portions of Southwest Florida.

- Chilly temperatures will remain in place across South Florida through the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 752 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

As advertised, another chilly morning and start to the New Year across South Florida as surface high pressure centered over the western Gulf of America continues to provide a dry NW wind flow down the Florida peninsula with little to no ocean modification. As the high moves east to near Florida later today, the cold air advection will diminish and result in slightly warmer high temperatures today compared to yesterday. Nevertheless, I shaved off a degree or two from today's highs similar to yesterday and in close agreement with the short-range model consensus. This still gives us highs in the mid to upper 60s (perhaps approaching 70F in Miami-Dade County and the southern Everglades).

Enhanced fire conditions are still likely today, but with the slow modification of the cold airmass, the dewpoints won't be as low so the areas of concern are more confined to eastern portions of South Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Happy New Year! We start the year off cold across South FL with surface high pressure over the Gulf allowing a dry northerly flow across the area, as shown by our 00Z sounding which only had a PWAT value of 0.25 inches. Mainly clear skies and nearly calm winds this morning is allowing temps to plummet again. A Frost Advisory is in effect until 9 AM for Glades, Hendry, inland Collier, and inland Palm Beach. Some patchy frost will even be possible over western portions of Miami-Dade and Broward early this morning.

Temps warm up quickly today until mostly sunny skies, however highs this afternoon will remain well below normal, only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. Not as cold tonight but remaining chilly with overnight lows around 40 west and south of the lake, to around 50 closer to the coasts.

High pressure shifts over the area on Friday. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the day. Skies will be partly cloudy in the afternoon and high temps will reach the low to middle 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

As high pressure shifts east of the area this weekend, temps will continue to moderate as the low level flow becomes more southerly. High temps this weekend will be around normal in the upper 70s to around 80. Overnight lows Saturday night will be in the 50s/60s.

Low pressure system over the southeast US will move off the Mid Atlantic coast on Sunday, and a frontal boundary associated with that system along with an upper level shortwave will cross South FL late Sunday into early Monday. This will bring with it the only chance of rainfall in the extended period on Sunday, albeit only slight chance PoPs, and certainly nothing that will bring any relief to the ongoing drought. Once the frontal boundary passes, high pressure builds back into the region for the early part of next week. Temperatures will remain right around normal through mid week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 752 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR and mostly clear skies expected through the forecast period. NW wind mainly 10 knots or less, with a NE landbreeze at KAPF after 00z.

MARINE

Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Moderate northerly winds today over the area waters become a light to gentle west to southwest breeze on Friday. Seas 2-4 ft in the Atlantic today and 1-2 ft in the Gulf.

BEACHES

Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Lingering swell will result in an elevated risk of rip currents today for the Palm Beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 68 51 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 68 45 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 67 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 68 49 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 67 49 72 55 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 66 50 72 55 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 67 48 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 66 48 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 66 49 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 66 51 73 58 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066-067- 070.

AM...None. GM...None.