textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 - Occasional showers continue today favoring east coast metro areas.

- Hazardous winds and seas in the Atlantic will improve today. - Another strong cold front could drop across the peninsula on Thursday, bringing reinforcing cold air and more increased rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Latest ensembles and global model solutions show a decaying sfc boundary lingering over SoFlo today, and maybe lifting a little northward. This will require keeping some POPs through early this evening, 20-30 percent, favoring the eastern side of SoFlo. 00Z MFL sounding and model data keep PWATs in the 1.3-1.5" range, for which potential for isolated rainfall amounts of 1" still remains in the forecast.

By Wednesday, models show a mid lvl shortwave feature moving around the base of a deepening trough over the SE CONUS. Both systems are shown migrating eastward, with overall synoptic flow veering more southwestward/westward by the afternoon hours. This will further focus highest chances of rain over the Atlantic coastline and around the Broward/Palm Beach metro areas. Meanwhile, a more robust sfc cold front will be pushed southward towards northern Florida by late Wednesday.

High temperatures for the short term should remain in the upper 70s to near 80, with overnight lows tonight mainly in the low 60s, with some mid 60s around the east coast metro areas.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Model consensus depict a FROPA reaching the area on Thursday, with rain chances increasing in the Wed night-Thu morning time frame ahead of the front. Latest timing with this feature places the best chances of showers during the mid/late morning hours on Thursday with scattered to numerous showers possible. In general, dynamic support seem to remain poor as the parent trough/low complex will continue to pull NE into the eastern seaboard. And with prevailing cloud cover, the daytime heating component should remain weak enough to keep mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast attm. This, however, will continue to be revised and updated as necessary. 50-70 POPs remain in the forecast for Thursday morning.

Winds veer northward Thursday night into Friday as broad high pressure spreads across the SE CONUS, triggering another cold/dry air advection event. Coldest temperatures with this robust cold air mass are expected Friday morning before sunrise, with coastal areas dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and interior/northern areas in the low-mid 30s. Friday afternoon will also remain fairly cool for being SoFlo, with highs struggling to hit the mid-upper 60s.

Temperatures then gradually warm up during the weekend, but still remaining around the low 70s in general. Then by Monday, models seem to suggest another possible cool down with a front approaching the area. There is still a lot of uncertainty in long range guidance, so the forecast philosophy beyond the weekend will continue to be updated with new guidance.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Periods of SHRA continue throughout the day mainly for the Atlantic terminals. Prevailing NE winds around 10kt expected after 15Z, along with possible periods of MVFR CIGs.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Hazardous boating conditions will continue until later this morning, then conditions will quickly subside and remain below highlight criteria through the middle of the week. A frontal passage is expected to bring another round of hazardous-level winds and seas for the Thursday night-Friday timeframe.

BEACHES

Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

High risk of rip currents expected to continue across the Atlantic coastline until this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 67 79 63 / 50 20 30 10 West Kendall 79 62 80 59 / 50 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 79 66 80 62 / 50 30 30 20 Homestead 80 66 80 62 / 40 20 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 76 66 79 62 / 50 30 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 76 66 79 62 / 50 40 30 20 Pembroke Pines 78 64 80 61 / 50 30 30 20 West Palm Beach 75 65 78 59 / 40 40 30 20 Boca Raton 76 65 80 60 / 50 40 30 20 Naples 79 64 75 63 / 20 30 20 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.