textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

- Warm temperatures will continue today out ahead of an approaching weak frontal boundary. - Mainly dry conditions will remain in place across most of the area through the weekend. The exception to this will be the possibility of an isolated shower over the east coast.

- East northeasterly winds will increase during the early portion of next week as another frontal boundary approaches the region.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 131 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

A mid level shortwave trough will pass just off to the north of the region as today progresses and then it will move northeastward into the Atlantic. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will move towards South Florida slowly as the day progresses before eventually washing out somewhere over the region later this afternoon into tonight. A weak prefrontal surface trough will push through the region during the morning hours. With very limited mid to upper level support, this trough will move through with little fanfare, however, some isolated showers cannot be ruled out through the morning and early afternoon hours. Some drier air will try to push in as surface winds shift from southwest this morning to more of a west northwesterly direction this afternoon. High temperatures across South Florida today will be on the warm side as they will rise from the mid 80s across most of the region. The exception to this will be along the Gulf coast, where lower 80s will remain in place due to onshore flow.

With the actual front dissipating as it moves into the region, a moisture gradient will set up across South Florida, with the core of the drier air remain locked up across Northern and Central Florida tonight into Saturday. Moisture advection quickly rebounds as winds veer to the east northeast on Saturday. The latest ensemble guidance and forecast model soundings show PWAT values rising throughout the day and eventually ranging between 1.0 and 1.2 inches by the late afternoon hours. While most of the region will remain dry on Saturday, there will still be enough moisture in place to support some isolated shower activity over the local waters and then eventually across portions of the eastern half of South Florida. High temperatures on Saturday will generally rise into the lower 80s across most areas, however, they could rise into the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Heading into the second half of the weekend, weak mid level ridging to zonal flow will develop across South Florida during this time frame. At the surface, high pressure to the north will help to shunt most of the leftover moisture from the remnants of the frontal boundary further to the south over the Florida Keys and the Florida Straits. This will allow for mainly dry conditions to set up over the region during this time frame. The only exception may be a brief passing shower or two mainly confined to portions of the Atlantic waters or immediate southeast coast. High temperatures on Sunday will generally rise into the lower 80s across most areas. Some mid 80s may remain possible across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

For early next week, the weather pattern will change a bit as a strengthening mid level ridge over the Desert Southwest and Northern Mexico expands eastward into the Southern Plains and eventually the Gulf. This will allow for a northwesterly wind flow to develop aloft over South Florida on Monday and Tuesday. At the surface, a very strong area of high pressure will push into the Mid Atlantic region on Monday and then eventually towards the Southeast heading into Tuesday. The latest global and ensemble guidance suite have come into better agreement in the timing of a backdoor cold front that will pass through the area or just to the east heading into Monday night and Tuesday. This boundary will allow for the pressure gradient to rapidly tighten across South Florida which will bring a breezy and gusty east northeasterly wind flow to the region on Monday and Tuesday.

With ample moisture advection taking place combined with the weak frontal boundary nearby, this will allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop along the breeze especially across the eastern half of the region mainly later on Monday and into Tuesday. With ample dry air in the mid to upper levels due to the northwesterly wind flow aloft, thunderstorm chances will remain very limited, and shower activity will remain rather low topped. While the exact details still need to be ironed out, some heavy downpours cannot be ruled out with stronger shower activity due to potential coastal convergence setting up Monday night and Tuesday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will generally remain in the upper 70s across the east coast to the lower 80s across Southwest Florida.

Heading into Wednesday and Thursday, the strong mid level ridge will continue to expand eastward across the Gulf Coast States and will eventually approach the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the surface, high pressure will center nearby, allowing for the pressure gradient to decrease and the winds will gradually subside during this time frame. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will remain near climatological normals for this time of year.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Light and variable winds early this morning becoming SW 5-10 kts later this morning and then becoming NW this afternoon. Patchy fog possible early this morning over interior South FL. SCT MVFR ceilings this morning with some IFR possible over interior locations where fog occurs.

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

A gentle to moderate southwesterly breeze this morning across the local waters will gradually shift and become west northwesterly as the day progresses. These winds will then shift and generally remain out of the east northeast across most of the local waters during the upcoming weekend. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less today before increasing and ranging between 2 to 4 feet through the upcoming weekend. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 1 to 3 feet through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible mainly across the Atlantic waters today and Saturday.

BEACHES

Issued at 131 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches today and Saturday. This moderate risk will then expand across the rest of the east coast beaches during the second half of the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 85 69 82 70 / 10 10 10 10 West Kendall 86 63 83 65 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 86 66 83 68 / 10 10 10 10 Homestead 85 67 82 69 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 68 80 70 / 10 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 68 81 70 / 10 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 86 66 83 68 / 10 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 85 66 81 68 / 20 10 0 10 Boca Raton 86 67 82 69 / 20 10 10 10 Naples 81 61 82 64 / 20 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.