textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1246 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- Above average temperatures continue today and will continue through the weekend. Probabilities of heat-related impacts across urban areas during this time frame continue to increase.

- Next chance for rain arrives early next week as a frontal boundary approaches the region.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 107 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Models and sfc analyses continue to depict a dominant ridge of high pressure stretching from the west Atlantic and into the Florida peninsula, with its associated ridge axis moving into SoFlo. The high pressure flattens as the ridge axis slides southward into the area, being pushed by a frontal boundary stretching across the SE CONUS and the NW Gulf. This will result in even weaker winds over SoFlo during the next couple of days, with flow becoming light or even calm at times, especially at night.

The weakening sfc winds will allow for sea breeze boundaries to again become dominant during the afternoon hours. High-res models are not responding to any potential forcing provided by the sea breezes as they push inland. However, the past couple of afternoon periods were clearly dominated by localized convection generated by the sea breeze boundaries colliding over interior SoFlo. Therefore, low-end PoPs (~20%) will be introduced in the grids for the rest of this afternoon to better reflect the potential for sea breeze boundary activity, mainly over interior areas.

Heat will continue to be a concern today and Friday, regardless of any shower activity that materializes from sea breezes. Highs are expected again in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coasts, and into the low-mid 90s over interior areas. NWS HeatRisk remains minor along the coasts and moderate for interior locations today. Then the moderate HeatRisk expands to all of South Florida on Friday. Nighttime lows also remain on the warmer side with mainly mid-upper 60s inland, and into the low 70s near the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

In previous discussions, a frontal boundary was poised to progress southward towards the Florida peninsula and lead to an uptick in rain chances for the weekend. Timing for this feature has slowed significantly, and given the last few forecast model runs, it's looking more and more likely that the weekend will remain dry, sunny and hot. A few showers could be possible for interior locations where sea breezes collide, however with upper level ridging nearly overhead, these should be low-topped and rather weak. The excessive heat risk peaks over the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and mid-upper 90s for interior locations. NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk depicts a 70-80% probability of Major HeatRisk across the east coast metro on Saturday and Sunday with a 10-15% chance of extreme (level 4/4) HeatRisk. While these probabilistic values may fluctuate as we remain several days out in time, Major and Extreme HeatRisk can be impactful to anyone without adequate cooling/hydration as well as health system and industries. Very little relief is expected heading into early next week on Monday and Tuesday with highs remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight lows will struggle to dip below 80 degrees during this time period, especially for coastal areas. This will provide little to no relief from the heat during the nighttime periods.

Heat impacts aside, rain chances will begin to increase on Monday and Tuesday and a front passes through the region. A surface low will deepen and accelerate towards the northeast which will send its attendant frontal boundary through the area. This will lead to southerly flow across the area on Monday, and if the boundary is able to pass through the area (which seems more likely than not currently) northeast flow on Tuesday which hypothetically could provide a little relief from the heat. Rain chances remain around 30- 50% early next week, dependent on the exact timing of this front but am holding steady with this update for now.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Moderate SE winds should prevail, except for a westerly shift at APF with Gulf breezes after 17Z. L/V flow, or even calm at times, return after 00-02Z.

MARINE

Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Generally benign marine conditions expected with variable winds throughout the coming days as upper level high pressure slides eastward across the state. Southeast flow across Atlantic waters this morning will become more southerly through the day and southwesterly by the evening. Winds will veer from the southeast towards the northwest through the day across local Gulf waters. Wave heights remain 1-3 feet over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 92 78 91 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 70 94 74 93 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 74 93 77 92 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 73 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 89 79 89 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 74 90 78 90 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 75 94 78 94 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 74 91 77 91 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 74 90 79 90 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 73 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.