textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire.

- Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Guidance keeps the ridge/deep high pressure holding its ground across the SE CONUS and the FL peninsula despite a rather complex weather scenario developing over the rest of the CONUS. The ridge axis will slowly drift southward and closer to SoFlo through tomorrow as some of the aforementioned storm systems push eastward. This will keep the area under a warm and dry weather regime through the rest of the week.

00Z MFL sounding and model sounding data keep PWATs below 1 inch for the next several days, and a significantly dry air mass between 1- 9km. Radar data shows less marine shower activity today, with very low chances of shallow marine showers making it into the east coast metro areas through the rest of the afternoon hours. Any shower should remain light and very brief.

As the ridge axis moves closer to the area, expect pressure gradients to relax a little. This will result in shorter periods of breezy easterly winds, but still expecting some gusty periods around the Atlantic coastline this afternoon. The prevailing easterly winds may push smoke from the Newman wildfire towards the Gulf shore and other surrounding areas. Local air quality issues are likely to continue as firefighters work on mitigating the fire. Other smoke- associated hazards may include lower visibilities on roadways and make driving conditions less safe in certain areas.

Max temps Thursday afternoon should reach the low-mid 80s for much of SoFlo, with possible upper 80s over the west coast.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Long term ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. on Friday with the shortwave attempting to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just be weakened or 'flattened out' in a sense. As the shortwave trough then advects offshore, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces some downstream vorticity and a frontal boundary southwards towards northern Florida and simultaneously weakens the ridging pattern. Moisture would also be expected to increase as the front moves southwards. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 90-95th percentile through Sunday morning, hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather through the first half of the weekend despite incoming low pressure trying to advect into the area. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and a slight increase in moisture availability as some modest moisture advection occurs from a low in the Caribbean. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida and the ridge finally loses its strength, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations.

Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time still favor drier solutions for this weekend and into Monday next week, and even these few wetter solutions for the Sat-Mon time frame do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity returning at the beginning of next week on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, ensembles do highlight a much more active pattern being possible as we approach the middle of next week, but uncertainty remains high on that given its at the end of the forecast period.

High temperatures will continue to rise each day through this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. As the frontal boundary then works southwards and washes out through the area early next week, a cool down back to more normal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s is possible.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control of the area. Winds will remain from the ENE light to moderate overnight, then back to around 10kt, likely with with no periods of wind gusts Thursday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A moderate breeze will be in place across the Atlantic waters through the end of this week with a gentle breeze in the Gulf waters. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Seas fall a bit further in the Atlantic today to 2-4 feet and should remain in this range for the rest of the week while Gulf seas remain at 1-2 feet or less.

BEACHES

Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues through at least Thursday this week. While this risk may decrease a bit for Friday and this weekend, an elevated risk may still persist into the weekend as onshore flow continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 69 82 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 65 84 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 68 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 68 82 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 80 72 83 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 69 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 70 85 72 88 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 68 81 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 69 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 64 85 66 88 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.