textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 717 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days and into next week. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Scattered storms possible today, and some could be strong. Best chance will come during the afternoon and early evening hours.

- Another plume of Saharan dust moves into the area this weekend into early next week, leading to lower rain chances but very hot conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

As high pressure across the western Atlantic dominates the synoptic pattern at mid and low levels, a TUTT continues to approach the area from the Southeast at the upper levels which has significantly enhanced convection through the overnight period. CAMs depict activity generally taping off over the coming hours. After a brief lull during the morning hours today, additional developing scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and early evening today, a few of which may pack gusty winds.

Aside from the thunderstorms, another hot day is expected with highs in the 90s and heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Another heat advisory is in effect for all of South Florida. A few areas may see relief especially during the afternoon and evening with developing showers and storms. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 70s in far interior Florida however they will struggle to dip below 80 along the coast. As the TUTT progresses towards the east, a drier air mass begins to advect across the area leading to a drop in PWATs back to the 1.5-1.6 inch range, which should limit convective coverage for Sunday afternoon. Diurnal showers and storms are probable across interior areas, however chances remain below average at 20-30%.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

High pressure at the surface is poised to remain draped across the western Atlantic which will maintain southeasterly flow into early next week and will continue to advect a plume of Saharan dust across the area leading to below-average moisture. The aforementioned TUTT will weaken and continue to advect westward away from the region early next week. PWATs will range from the 1.3-1.5 inch range through much of the work-week which should limit the convective potential outside of a few diurnal showers and storms across interior and southwest Florida during the late afternoon and early evening. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40% through Thursday peaking each day between 2-7PM. Hot conditions are expected to continue through the period, especially for locations that don't receive relief from afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid-upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Additional heat advisories will be likely through the remainder of the weekend and into the upcoming work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 717 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail this taf cycle. Thunderstorm chances will be greatest inland, with chances 20% or less along the east coast. Periods of VCTS will be likely through the afternoon however. Included a PROB30 for TSRA at APF as chances are slightly higher there this afternoon. Winds will be SSE through most of the day between 9 to 12 kts, shifting easterly tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Moderate east-southeast flow prevails through the weekend. There is an increased chance for showers and storms across local waters today which may lead to erratic winds and waves at times. Outside of any convective activity, wave heights will remain at 3 feet of less across local Gulf and Atlantic waters. Drier conditions expected on Sunday through much of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 94 81 95 80 / 20 10 10 10 West Kendall 95 77 96 77 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 95 80 96 80 / 30 20 10 10 Homestead 93 80 94 80 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 81 94 81 / 30 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 80 94 80 / 40 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 96 81 97 81 / 30 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 93 79 94 79 / 60 30 20 10 Boca Raton 91 80 93 80 / 50 20 10 10 Naples 93 78 95 80 / 30 10 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.