textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 - Heat Advisory for all of South FL today. Heat impacts will linger into the upcoming week.

- Stay tuned for further information on the developing heat episode, and be prepared to take precautionary/preventative actions in the coming days.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Mostly dry and hot weather is expected today with areas of surface high pressure over the Gulf and western Atlantic, and upper level ridging aloft. Saharan dust filters into the region today and Monday, which will aid in additional suppression of convection. Outside of a slight chance of late day showers and storms around the lake region and interior South FL, most of the area will remain dry today. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 90s across the metro, to mid and upper 90s over the interior. A spot or two in the Everglades could even reach triple digits during the afternoon. Dewpoints will be a tad lower today with the drier air in place, however peak heat indices are still expected to reach 105-110 this afternoon. After consulting with neighboring offices, a Heat Advisory will be in effect for the entire area from 11 AM to 7 PM.

Mainly clear tonight over the interior with scattered cumulus near the coast. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s across the interior to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

Moisture starts to increase in the low levels on Monday as the low level flow becomes more southerly. Saharan dust will still help suppress convection, however expect a bit more shower and thunderstorm activity from mid afternoon through early evening, especially along western portions of the east coast metro and interior South FL, however PoPs will still run well below normal for this time of year. High temps will again be in the low to mid 90s over the metro and mid to upper 90s over the interior. Max heat indices will again reach 105-110 during the afternoon. Headlines will almost certainly be needed for Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

There's some hint of an upper level low lingering near South FL Tuesday into Wednesday, and the higher concentrations of Saharan dust should start pushing south of the area, so PoPs will slowly start to increase as the week progresses closer to climatological norms. By late in the week the ridge weakens and an upper level trough starts to dig into the eastern US, further increasing moisture across the region. PoPs by the beginning of next weekend should be right around climatological norms, with the highest each day favoring inland and SW FL.

Heat will continue to be a story all week with temperatures remaining above normal throughout the period and heat indices flirting with advisory criteria each day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected today. Light and variable winds this morning becoming ESE around 10 kts this afternoon across the east coast metro, with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Gentle east to southeast breeze across the Atlantic waters today, with a gentle westerly breeze in the Gulf. Seas 2 ft or less. Mostly benign conditions remain through at least early this upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 94 80 96 80 / 0 0 10 10 West Kendall 94 77 96 76 / 10 0 20 0 Opa-Locka 95 79 97 79 / 10 0 20 10 Homestead 94 78 95 77 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 93 79 95 80 / 0 0 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 94 79 97 81 / 0 0 20 0 Pembroke Pines 94 79 96 80 / 10 0 20 10 West Palm Beach 96 78 98 79 / 0 0 20 0 Boca Raton 93 79 95 79 / 0 0 10 0 Naples 94 78 93 79 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.