textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- A few isolated showers across Southeast Florida today, but mostly dry weather is expected. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue today. - Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Atlantic coast during high tide cycles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The synoptic pattern will remain generally unchanged into the start of next week as a potent low pressure system meanders off the New England coastline and an associated weakening frontal feature lingers over the Florida Straits. This setup will allow South Florida to continue enjoying a well-earned stretch of dry and pleasant weather, with below-average conditions forecast through the short period and beyond. This means chances for precipitation will remain sparse coverage-wise and below 20% through Monday thanks to the presence of an abnormally dry air mass. Dew points are expected to remain in the 60s (at or below the 25th percentile) and PWATs should range from 1 to 1.5 inches at best, (also at or below the 25th percentile). An area of weak surface high extending from the southeastern United States will also help maintain any instability parameters unfavorable for convective development. However, this development will help promote lighter northerly winds across the area, which in turn will allow for the development and inland incursion of the sea breezes each afternoon. If any showers were to develop, they would be expected along these breeze boundaries.

Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages. High temperatures today will top off in the low to mid 80s across the East Coast, and maybe into the upper 80s across southwest Florida. However, they could warm up further into the upper 80s area-wide on Monday. Overnight lows will drop into the low 70s across the East Coast and down into the mid 60s across the interior.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The aforementioned weak frontal boundary is forecast to completely dissipate by Tuesday, while the subtropical Atlantic high gradually strengthens and builds eastward towards the peninsula. This will usher in a return to more consistent easterly flow across the region, along with a corresponding increase in tropical moisture. Dew points and precipitable water values should return seasonable levels by mid-week.

A few interesting developments are also expected to take place aloft during this time period. The base of an extensive upper-level trough is forecast to remain draped across Florida, while a shortwave disturbance looks likely to slide southward and near South Florida by Wednesday. The combination of this disturbance and the influx of moisture promote wetter and more unsettled conditions, with shower and thunderstorm chances potentially returning to the 60-80% range Tuesday-Wednesday.

By Thursday, ridging looks likely to build aloft over the Gulf, while the surface pattern remains generally unchanged. This should favor a return to more typical mesoscale-driven convective activity each day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light and variable winds overnight will give way to light easterly flow 5-10 kts after 16Z for East Coast sites, while a westerly breeze will develop at KAPF.

MARINE

Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Hazardous conditions are expected to linger across the Atlantic waters through today as moderate northerly winds gradually weaken. Northerly/northeasterly swell will continue into early next week due to a strong system in the northeast. Thus, seas are still expected to reach 6-8 feet through Sunday morning, and 4-6 feet into Monday. Conditions improve later in the week as surface high builds over the area and winds shift from the east.

BEACHES

Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues for all Atlantic coast beaches as an increasing northerly/northeasterly swell and light northerly winds continue. Furthermore, the King Tide Cycle this weekend will continue to result in more periods of coastal flooding. Observations continue to out-perform guidance by a decent margin and thus we could see minor to moderate flooding. Based on today's observations, there is a good chance that Palm Beach and Broward coastlines reach moderate flooding, while Miami-Dade should remain at minor. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Palm Beach and Broward counties, while a Coastal Flood Statement is in place for Miami-Dade and mainland Monroe counties.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 85 73 86 74 / 10 10 10 10 West Kendall 85 71 87 72 / 20 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 85 72 87 73 / 10 10 10 0 Homestead 85 72 87 74 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 84 72 86 73 / 0 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 72 86 73 / 0 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 85 71 86 72 / 10 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 85 71 87 73 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 85 72 86 73 / 0 0 10 10 Naples 85 70 87 73 / 0 0 0 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ168- 172.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.