textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 639 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 - Marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon and Sunday.

- Shower and thunderstorms chances remain elevated through the end of the weekend, and could result in localized flooding and strong to severe impacts each afternoon.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend. However, a frontal passage Monday-Tuesday could bring much cooler temperatures mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Latest ensemble and global model solutions depict abundant moisture over SoFlo associated with a stationary frontal boundary lingering around the southern tip of the peninsula. Models also show a weak subtropical jet over the central/southern Gulf waters, which will continue to send disturbances across the state through the short term.

Generally SE flow will remain in place through Sunday with moisture advection continuing across SoFlo, keeping high chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for each afternoon. MFL and KEY sounding data show PWATs around 1.4-1.5", well above the 75th to 90th percentiles for this time of year. Localized heavy rain and urban flooding are a possibility with the heaviest downpours. And although instability parameters remain favorable for deep convection, like 500 mb temps around -11C and CAPE over 1500 j/kg, the dynamic support aloft remains limited. But a few strong to severe storms are still possible, for which SPC has placed most of the area under a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather this afternoon.

Rainfall highest amounts in general are expected in the 1-2" range, with potential for isolated amounts to 4". Other hazard concerns will be lightning strikes, gusty winds amd small hail, which could accompany any thunderstorm that forms. POps/Wx grids have been adjusted with latest high-res solutions to better reflect the expected increasing coverage this afternoon, which NBM seems to be underestimating.

A similar weather pattern is expected for Sunday but with a scenario more favorable for stronger thunderstorms as an upper lvl shortwave moves over the area. Moisture will also increase as the aforementioned stationary boundary lifts northward and drags additional moisture into SoFlo. Therefore, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across SoFlo, starting mid- morning and continuing intermittently through the day. Hazards include potential for localized flooding, and increasing chances of severe storms. The Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather also continues Sunday afternoon, with potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Temperatures are expected to remain above average, with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s and morning lows in the mid 60s-low 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The aforementioned strong synoptic complex (consisting of a deep upper level trough and stout surface low and cold front) will progress eastward as we head into next week, with the surface low forecast to move over the Great Lakes on Monday and over the Canadian expanse on Tuesday. This will help push the cold front southward across the southeast CONUS and along the FL peninsula Monday into Tuesday. This frontal passage will continue to support widespread convective activity on Monday, with the continued potential for a marginal severe weather threat. A cooler airmass moves in behind the front through the middle of the week, with temperatures topping off in the low 70s, and potentially dropping into the 40s and 50s overnight Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will also surge behind the front, with breezy conditions expected mid week.

The overall atmospheric profile will cool although deep moisture will not fully escape as PWATs remain elevated and the atmospheric column becomes nearly saturated. Thus, muggy conditions and slight chances for showers will continue through the middle of next week and perhaps into late week but it will not be anywhere near as active and chaotic as this weekend is expected to be.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VCSH continues tonight with potential for passing showers. Although still a stray thunderstorm could affect a terminal this evening, chances are low enough to keep carrying VCSH and handle the situation with AMDs as necessary. Winds become light and variable later tonight, then becoming SE in the 10-15kt with higher gusts after 15Z. Winds should remain robust enough to preclude the westerly flow over APF in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this weekend as a frontal boundary remains stalled out over the area and a low pressure system pushes across the area. These elevated rain chances will persist into early next week as another front pushes cross the region. Winds could surge behind that front, ushering in another period of deteriorating marine conditions.

Seas will range from 3-5 ft through the short term period. Light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds will persist over the weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist for Palm Beach county beaches today. This risk could could increase for the entire East Coast on Sunday as winds increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 81 73 85 / 50 60 30 50 West Kendall 67 83 69 87 / 50 60 30 50 Opa-Locka 70 83 72 86 / 50 60 30 50 Homestead 71 83 73 86 / 50 60 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 70 80 73 84 / 50 60 40 50 N Ft Lauderdale 71 81 73 84 / 50 60 40 60 Pembroke Pines 71 83 73 86 / 50 60 30 50 West Palm Beach 70 82 71 85 / 50 60 40 60 Boca Raton 70 82 72 84 / 50 60 40 60 Naples 69 85 71 84 / 30 70 30 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.