textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 436 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers are likely to develop each afternoon this weekend, with coverage most likely across interior and Southwest FL. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms.

- High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon through the rest of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 436 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

08z Mesoanalysis depicts light easterly flow across the nearshore Atlantic waters as weak coastal convergence has set up along the east coast of South Florida this morning as surface friction acts to slow those light easterly winds at the coastline. A similar evolution to yesterday morning is forecast to play out as nocturnal scattered shower activity and isolated thunderstorm activity moving onshore along the immediate east coast should peak around daybreak before the maxima of convection focuses over land during the late morning and early afternoon hours. ACARS data and RAP forecast soundings once again indicate a stout near surface inversion and ample convective inhibition across inland areas, in simple terms, that means that convection will remain confined to east coast areas over the next several hours until the inhibition and near surface inversion erodes via diurnal mixing/heating. The parameters and hazards discussed below, as well as the overall forecast remains on track. Upper level water vapor imagery via GOES-East this morning depicts the growing influence of a weak TUTT just to the east of the region which may enhance diurnal convection this afternoon. The upcoming 12z MFL upper air sounding will provide us additional sampling on the upper air profile for today.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1050 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Towards the end of the weekend, the aforementioned upper level trough will eject eastward, dragging a surface front across the southeastern US. At the same time, weak TUTTs will continue to approach the peninsula. Easterly to southeasterly flow will continue across our region, with PWATs continuing to trend near normal or slightly above normal (1.9-2.1 inch range). Each afternoon could bring scattered to numerous showers and storms, starting along the East coast sea breeze boundary then proceeding inland into the late afternoon hours. Similarly to the short term period, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will all remain possible hazards.

Starting next week, once the trough and front progress eastward, models suggest the two flanking ridges over the US and western Atlantic will start to merge, extending across the entire region. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain likely each afternoon, with coverage maximized across the interior and southwest FL thanks to the continuing easterly flow.

Temperatures through the period will remain seasonably hot, with highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon and overnight lows in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1050 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Towards the end of the weekend, the aforementioned upper level trough will eject eastward, dragging a surface front across the southeastern US. At the same time, weak TUTTs will continue to approach the peninsula. Easterly to southeasterly flow will continue across our region, with PWATs continuing to trend near normal or slightly above normal (1.9-2.1 inch range). Each afternoon could bring scattered to numerous showers and storms, starting along the East coast sea breeze boundary then proceeding inland into the late afternoon hours. Similarly to the short term period, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will all remain possible hazards.

Starting next week, once the trough and front progress eastward, models suggest the two flanking ridges over the US and western Atlantic will start to merge, extending across the entire region. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain likely each afternoon, with coverage maximized across the interior and southwest FL thanks to the continuing easterly flow.

Temperatures through the period will remain seasonably hot, with highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon and overnight lows in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light and variable winds overnight increase out of the east- southeast late morning. Isolated SHRA remains possible at east coast terminals between 08Z-16Z. SHRA/TSRA is possible at all terminals after 16Z, but confidence on direct impacts remains low at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1050 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Benign boating conditions will prevail across all local waters as light to moderate winds continue. Across the local Atlantic waters, easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail, while westerly winds are forecast over the local Gulf waters. Scattered showers and storms are expected each day, mainly in the morning hours and again in the late evening hours across the local waters. Locally hazardous winds and rough seas may occur near any storm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 91 81 91 80 / 60 40 70 30 West Kendall 91 78 91 78 / 60 40 70 20 Opa-Locka 92 81 92 80 / 60 40 70 20 Homestead 92 80 91 80 / 50 40 60 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 80 90 80 / 60 40 60 30 N Ft Lauderdale 91 82 91 81 / 60 40 70 30 Pembroke Pines 91 81 91 81 / 60 40 70 20 West Palm Beach 92 79 92 79 / 60 40 70 30 Boca Raton 90 80 90 80 / 50 40 70 30 Naples 93 77 91 76 / 70 30 90 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.