textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening through the rest of the weekend. The main hazards from these storms will be gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the rest of the weekend for much of the area. This will mean that those who do not have hydration or adequate cooling will be affected. - Drier air associated with the Saharan Air Layer will slowly move into the area, starting late Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 424 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Currently there have been a handful of showers and storms through southern Florida. Sea breeze boundary interactions have been good instigation guidance, with a few of these storms intensifying to the point of needing sub-severe products. Frequent lightning and gusty winds are continued to be expected, with widespread DCAPE values > 800 J/kg and precipitable water amounts greater than 2 inches. With some of these boundary interactions, small amounts of rotation has been observed within these storms, as well as small funnels.

Latest model guidance indicates no major changes to the forecast, with high pressure cyclone dominating the upper levels over the region. Perturbations within that upper level flow will continue to provide enough support for the development of diurnal thunderstorms based on sea breeze interactions. Moisture continues to be plentiful, with precipitable water remaining over 1.8 inches across the entire region, with enhanced amounts of precipitable water over 2 inches. The lack of any major flow aloft will result in gradual moving thunderstorms.

Aside from the diurnal thunderstorms, heat will continue to be the other main story, with high temperatures in the 90s across the region and heat indexes climbing into the low to mid 100s across inland Florida, with mid 100s along the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 424 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

An upper level ridge will continue to expand through the region, and extend to over the southeast CONUS by early next week, further solidifying the current pattern of diurnal thunderstorms driven by sea breeze interactions. Models continue to indicate a layer of mid- level dry air to advect through the region due to a layer of Saharan dust moving through the area. The temporary dry air intrusion is expected to have a slight impact on precipitation chances with lower PoPs, however there may be a slight increase in severe potential due to higher lapse rates in the middle atmosphere. With no sort of change in the lower and mid level flow, heat will continue to be a concern to the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue across southern Florida as the southeasterly surface flow will decrease overnight, and the speed increases to around 10kts Saturday morning and afternoon. Direction Saturday will again depend on the sea breeze, with southerly and easterly directions along the Atlantic coast, and westerly winds along the Gulf. Scattered Thunderstorms are possible during the daytime Saturday, with erratic winds and MVFR conditions expected in areas impacted by these storms.

MARINE

Issued at 424 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

High pressure remains in control of the region through the forecast period. Light to moderate SSE winds will also continue over the Atlantic waters, becoming SSW over the Gulf waters with afternoon sea breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over coastal areas and move over land at times during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Any thunderstorm that forms may produce locally strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

BEACHES

Issued at 406 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches today as southeasterly flow becomes stronger this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 91 79 92 / 40 30 30 30 West Kendall 78 92 77 93 / 30 40 30 40 Opa-Locka 80 93 80 93 / 40 30 30 40 Homestead 80 92 80 92 / 30 40 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 81 91 / 40 30 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 80 91 / 40 30 30 40 Pembroke Pines 81 94 81 94 / 40 30 30 40 West Palm Beach 79 91 79 91 / 30 20 20 40 Boca Raton 80 90 80 90 / 40 20 20 40 Naples 77 93 77 93 / 30 60 40 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.