textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1235 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 - Scattered showers and storms will develop later this afternoon across the east coast metro area. Some of these storms could become strong and could contain gusty winds, heavy downpours, and small hail.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday afternoon, mainly across inland areas.

- Above normal temperatures are possible heading into the middle and latter portion of the upcoming week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS

Issued at 1235 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

ACARS soundings and 17z RTMA analysis in conjunction with GOES East indicate increasing instability across the region this afternoon as widespread cumulus congestus continues to congeal on the unstable side of both the Atlantic and Gulf sea-breezes. Cloud activity at this hour remains low capped in nature at this time as an inversion is still clearly present in ACARS and TOWR soundings. Model guidance (RRFS and HRRR) continues to hint at the eventual erosion of the CAP in the next few hours which will then facilitate more vertical growth of updrafts and reflectivity cores.

While diurnal circulations have resulted in the advection of both sea- breezes inland thus far this afternoon, light southerly to southwesterly back ground flow will focus convection on a pinned Atlantic sea- breeze primarily between the hours of 2 to 8 pm today. Aloft, 500mb temperatures have warmed to -9C to -10C as a prior shortwave has departed into the western Atlantic with the next short wave upstream still well to the northwest over the Gulf. In the grand scheme of things, 500mb flow remains out of a northwesterly direction as we remain well to the south of a positively tilted mid-level trough axis over the northeastern United States. 20 knots to 25 knots of 500mb flow will result in convection moving east-southeast to southeast off of the sea- breeze boundary. Residence time will remain rather short in nature, but the localized ascent from the sea-breeze boundary and any outflow boundary collisions could result in a one or two pulse strong to severe cores. A steep low-level lapse rate gradient, SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, and DCAPE of 800 to 1000 J/Kg and a continuation of mid-level dry air aloft will support the potential of a non-zero threat but low (<5% probability) of isolated strong to marginally severe wind gusts and small hail. More common storm hazards will be heavy rainfall and lightning with any thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A mid level trough will remain near the region through the rest of the weekend and heading into Monday as well. Several shortwave impulses of energy will pass over the Florida Peninsula and then round the base of the trough just offshore in the western Atlantic during this time frame. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain draped over Northern and Central Florida today while a broad area of low pressure begins to take shape later in the day well off to the northeast off the Carolina coastline. This frontal boundary will allow for the surface wind flow to generally take on a south to southwesterly direction throughout today. The sea breezes will once again develop this afternoon, however, this time around the Gulf breeze will be the dominate one as the east coast sea breeze gets pinned over the metro areas. While the sea breeze boundaries will be the main feature for convective initiation today, the combination of several mid level shortwaves nearby as well as a surface frontal boundary just to the north of the region could provide extra sources of lift for convective development. With moisture pooling over the region out ahead of the frontal boundary, the focus for thunderstorm development will be over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas this afternoon where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide. With 500mb temperatures remaining between -10 and -11C combined with DCAPE values of 700 to 850 J/kg this afternoon, the ingredients are there to support a few strong thunderstorms that are able to take advantage of the lift along boundary collisions. These storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours, gusty winds as well as some small hail. High temperatures today will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas, however, lower 90s will be possible over the interior areas along and south of Alligator Alley.

As the surface low continues to move further northeast in the Atlantic tonight into Monday, the surface frontal boundary will continue to weaken as it slowly pushes through the region. While winds at the surface will remain rather light and sea breeze driven on Monday, winds across the mid to upper levels will become more north northwesterly as the day progresses. This may help to introduce some drier air aloft later in the day over the region. Moisture will continue to pool over the area in the lower levels as the front pushes through which will be conducive for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop once again during the afternoon hours. While chances of strong thunderstorm development will still remain on the lower side, an isolated strong thunderstorm or two cannot be entirely ruled out during the late afternoon hours where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide. The strongest storms will once again be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures on Monday will generally range from the mid 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, a rather strong mid level ridge centered over the southwest Gulf will sprawl eastward over the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the same time, a surface area of high pressure will begin to build in from the north on Tuesday before centering over the region on Wednesday. Outside of an isolated shower on Tuesday due to some lingering lower level moisture in place from what is left of the frontal boundary, many areas will remain dry throughout most of Tuesday and into Wednesday. With east to southeasterly wind flow in place during this time frame, high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will generally rise into the mid 80s along the east coast and into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

During the second half of the week, uncertainty in the forecast still remains on the higher side as a deepening mid level low/trough complex dives down into the Great Lakes region as well as the Northeast and Mid Atlantic States during this time frame. This deepening mid level low/trough complex will help to flatten the ridge over the region creating more of a zonal flow across South Florida by the end of the week. At the surface, low pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic Coastline on Thursday and the cold front associated with this system will extend southwestward back into Northern and Central Florida. The uncertainty in the forecast has to do with the forward momentum of the front as guidance is showing signals that it could stall somewhere across the Lake Okeechobee region. What is more certain, is that out ahead of this front, winds will become south southwesterly on Thursday and Friday creating very warm temperatures area wide heading into the second half of the week. If the front remains to the north of the region, dry conditions will prevail and rain chances will remain rather limited. If this front were to push further south into the region before stalling, this could introduce some chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon heading into the second half of the week. As of now, the forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps the area dry during this time frame, however, if future models runs trend towards pushing the front further south, chances of showers and thunderstorms may increase during this time period. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be above climatological normals as upper 80s and lower 90s will be common across most of the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

SHRA/TSRA is forecast to develop along a pinned Atlantic sea- breeze over the next several hours and persist through 00z. Winds will veer to a southeasterly component at all east coast terminals, remaining out of the southwest at KAPF. Erratic wind shifts and gusty winds are possible at any east coast terminal that is directly impacted by SHRA/TSRA. Light and variable winds will be possible once again overnight with any SHRA/TSRA activity dissipating by 01-03z.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will develop across the local waters today out ahead of an approaching front. These winds will become variable on Monday as the front slowly pushes through the region before becoming east northeasterly on Tuesday as high pressure starts to build back into the region. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through early next week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the weekend and most of Monday. These seas will then build to 3 to 5 feet on Tuesday as a northeasterly swell develops behind the frontal boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across the Atlantic waters today and Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 71 87 72 84 / 20 20 10 10 West Kendall 67 89 68 86 / 20 10 0 10 Opa-Locka 70 88 72 85 / 20 20 10 10 Homestead 70 87 71 85 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 84 72 83 / 20 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 70 84 72 83 / 30 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 71 89 72 87 / 20 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 68 84 71 83 / 20 20 10 0 Boca Raton 70 84 72 83 / 30 20 10 0 Naples 69 87 68 88 / 0 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.