textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Periods of low visibilities due to dense smoke will continue across portions of interior SW Florida near the National Fire, resulting in the closure of Alligator Alley from SR-29 to US-27. Motorists are advised to adhere to guidance from local officials.

- Rain chances will trend upwards over the next several days, beginning with the potential of a few isolated showers this afternoon and evening across southeastern Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Main Forecast Concern:

The decoupling of winds over the last several hours has resulted in the pooling of dense smoke from the actively burning National Fire along Alligator Alley as the top of the inversion layer remains roughly 300-400 feet above the surface. FHP (Florida Highway Patrol) has closed Alligator Alley (Interstate 75) from SR-29 (Exit 80) to US-27 (Exit 23) accordingly due to low visibilities. Mesoscale models depict the near-term development of a weak land breeze which will veer surface winds at the fire to an easterly direction over the next several hours. This will result in the continuation of reduced visibilities across inland southwestern Florida and the potential of smoke and reduced air quality conditions across coastal areas of Collier County through daybreak today. Although the inversion will dissipate shortly after sunrise, the development of light southerly winds inland during the mid to late morning hours may once again advect smoke from the National Fire directly over Alligator Alley (I-75) through the afternoon hours. The main takeaway is that continued periods of reduced visibilities and air quality remains possible across southwestern Florida while the National Fire continues to burn. Motorists are advised to adhere to guidance from local officials, the combination of dense smoke and night-time can prove to be dangerous for drivers.

Short Term Forecast Details:

The axis of stout surface ridging will slide eastward today, resulting in mesoscale phenomena dictating the local atmospheric pattern across South Florida. Nocturnal stratification and a near surface inversion will result in a temperature gradient across the region at daybreak as minimum temperatures will range from the mid to upper 40s inland to the upper 50s to low 60s across the east coast metro. A few inland spots could once again trend closer to the NBM 25th percentile, especially in sheltered locations where efficient radiational cooling occurs under clear skies. Differential heating between the land and ocean interface will result in an onshore wind component out of a southeasterly (east coast) and southwesterly (gulf coast) direction along both coasts by the mid to late morning hours. Warm air advection via anticyclonic flow around the expansive surface ridge to our east over the western Atlantic will continue the ongoing moderation of the airmass in place across our area. Aloft, our region will remain well to the south of expansive mid-level troughing over the much of the eastern United States today as mid-level flow remains out of a southwesterly direction. Continued warm air advection, surface ridging hanging on, and clear skies will result in a return to the 80s (above average temperatures) across the majority of South Florida this afternoon. While dry air remains in place, cannot rule out a few shallow capped showers (15-20% chance) across the eastern half of South Florida this afternoon and evening. Blended various mesoscale models that depicted higher precipitation chances than the standard NBM.

Continued warm air advection and the arrival of a plume of deeper atmospheric moisture will arrive across the region during the day on Friday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to depict a mid-level shortwave arriving across the southeastern United States during the day on Friday with an attendant surface frontal boundary and deeper envelope of moisture sliding southward into the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. The combination of southerly winds in the warm sector of the boundary to the north and increasing low level moisture will set the stage for above average temperatures on Friday across the region with a non-zero potential of 90s across inland areas of South Florida. The latest forecast continues to hold steady depicting a 20-40% across most of the region on Friday afternoon with the potential of an isolated thunderstorm or two over and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon hours. While instability will remain marginal (1000-2000 J/kg) and lapse rates lackluster, residual dry air in the vertical column will support forecast DCAPE values of 800-1000 J/kg which could result in gusty winds being possible if any taller cores are able to materialize. Localized convergence between the background southwesterly flow and southeasterly winds along the coast of Palm Beach County could help localized ascent during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Outside of gusty winds, the other concern with any thunderstorm will be any potential cloud to ground lightning strikes sparking additional wildfires given the very dry conditions in place across South Florida.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

The evolution of how ensemble guidance has been handling the progression of the mid-level shortwave over the past 48 hours has been rather interesting as the latest guidance (ECENS, GEFS, AI ECENS, AI GEFS) now shows the shortwave slowing in forward motion across the Florida Peninsula and weakening in strength before sliding to the east of the region on Monday. The progression and timing of the mid-level feature will have direct implications on the progression of the surface frontal boundary across the Florida Peninsula. As the forecast stands this morning, Saturday continues to feature the highest rain chances sitting in the ballpark of 30- 50% across the region as precipitable water values increase into the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range. As the frontal boundary becomes frontolytic in the vicinity of our region this upcoming weekend, the envelope of deeper moisture (relative to what we have experienced recently) will remain draped across the region through the mid-week period.

With the departure of the mid-level shortwave to the east of the region early next week, a quiet period is ushered in on the synoptic scale across South Florida as mid-level ridging sets up shop across South Florida and surrounding waters. A developing pressure gradient across the region will usher in breezy conditions along the east coast through mid-week as a resultant temperature gradient occurs. Forecast high temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s along the East coast to mid to upper 80s along the Gulf coast, Monday through Thursday. Residual moisture will result in the potential of shower activity each afternoon (greatest foci across the eastern half of the region) through early next week as high and low temperatures remain above average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR and light winds will prevail through daybreak with the exception of reduced visibilities in the local vicinity of the National Fire. Surface winds will veer onshore along both coasts by the late morning/early afternoon hours. A few isolated showers may develop across the eastern half of South Florida this afternoon and evening but confidence in coverage remains too low to include VCSH in the TAF forecast at this time.

BEACHES

Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place at Palm Beach & Broward County beaches through this evening as northeasterly swell gradually subsides.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Although relative humidity values will continue to moderate compared to what was observed earlier in the week, minimum relative humidity values will still drop into the 40s across inland locales this afternoon. Winds will veer to a southerly direction and enhance slightly by late this morning, veering onshore (SErly east coast, SWrly Gulf coast) once again during the afternoon hours. The National Wildfire continues to burn in Big Cypress National Preserve this morning. The size of the wildfire may result in mesoscale changes to atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of the wildfire. During the overnight and daybreak hours, dense smoke may reduce visibilities downstream of the fire, especially along Alligator Alley. During the late morning and afternoon hours, enhanced winds and lower relative humidity values may materialize near the fire due to the development of mesoscale air circulations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 68 83 68 / 0 20 20 20 West Kendall 81 63 85 64 / 10 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 81 66 84 67 / 0 20 20 20 Homestead 79 67 84 67 / 10 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 68 82 68 / 10 20 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 79 68 83 68 / 10 20 20 30 Pembroke Pines 81 67 85 67 / 10 20 20 20 West Palm Beach 80 66 84 67 / 10 20 30 40 Boca Raton 79 66 82 67 / 10 20 30 30 Naples 79 63 81 64 / 0 10 10 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.