textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1252 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Monday evening. - Gusty winds continue across south Florida today, especially along the immediate east coast where gusts up to 25-30 mph are possible.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1252 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A deep-layer ridging pattern extending from the upper levels down to the surface will be maintained through at least the early week period along with a drier air mass (PWATs 0.5-0.7") that is below the 10th percentile for the date in terms of moisture availability. Under this setup, conditions will continue to be dry and getting hotter by the day as strong high pressure is expected to result in steadily rising temperatures each day.

An overall temperature gradient will continue across the region both during the day and overnight as onshore winds keep temperatures along the east coast cooler during the day and warmer overnight. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to low 80s across the east coast metro to upper 80s across the western half of South Florida. For Tuesday, high temps rise a couple degrees with much of the east coast metro reaching the low 80s. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 60s in SW Florida to the upper 60s and low 70s for SE Florida.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1252 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Deep layer ridging and copious amounts of dry air will remain throughout the vertical atmospheric column into the end of this week, although the deep layer ridge will begin to break down to an extent by week's end, but will not result in much change in the local weather (more on that further below). Although surface ridging will remain entrenched across the region over the next several days, a weakening pressure gradient will result in a gradual relaxing of surface winds by mid-week. Subsidence, low precipitable water values compared to historical climatological norms, and a lack of any rainfall or sufficient cloud cover will result in a continued warming trend across the majority of the region with the potential of high temperatures in the low 90s across the western half of South Florida by mid-week. An onshore breeze will keep high temperatures slightly cooler along the east coast but temperatures in the middle to upper 80s will be possible across the east coast metro during the second half of the week.

Mid-level ridging will gradually elongate and flatten during the second half of the week as transient lobes (troughing) of mid-level vorticity advect eastward across the central United States. At the surface, residual dry air and surface ridging will keep conditions on the dry side. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hint at the potential of a lobe of vorticity being pinched off from the larger trough axis advecting into the western Atlantic while the axis itself continues to advect northeastward. Model guidance continues to highlight the potential of this cut-off low feature being steered back towards the vicinity of our region early next week. This remains the main source of forecast uncertainty late in the period. Ensembles agree on the continual weakening of the trough as it moves westward, but the timing and spatial extent of the moisture advection is less clear. Generally speaking though, by the end of the week and weekend there may be some shower activity along the east coast in the mornings, with some scattered sea breeze convection across the interior and west coast in the afternoons.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR and breezy easterly flow around 12-15 kts throughout the TAF period at all terminals. These winds will gust to around 25 kts during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1252 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Lingering hazardous winds will continue across the Atlantic waters today before improving towards mid-week. ENE winds 20-25 kts with seas of 6-7 feet are expected in the southern Atlantic waters today and may also be seen briefly at times in the northern local Atlantic waters off of the Palm Beach coast. While winds and seas will subside a bit for the remainder of the week after today, cautionary conditions will continue across the Atlantic as winds and gusts likely won't drop below 15 knots through the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 1252 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The high risk for deadly rip currents will most likely continue for much of the week as consistent onshore flow continues. The strong onshore flow around the surface ridge will also result in elevated surf today with breakers around 4-6 ft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 70 81 69 81 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 67 83 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 70 82 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 70 82 69 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 79 70 80 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 80 69 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 71 83 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 69 80 67 81 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 70 80 69 80 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 66 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ630-651- 671.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.