textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 343 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

- High Rip Current Risk along Atlantic beaches this week.

- Hazardous conditions for small craft across Atlantic waters.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 343 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Convection this afternoon was limited to areas south of a decaying frontal boundary, and east of a differential heating boundary resulting from the lingering fog/stratus across southwest FL this morning. An upper-level shortwave moving across Florida provided enough deep-layer shear and cool enough mid-level temperatures that a couple of the storms were able to produce pea to nickel sized hail from Homestead to Miami Beach. As the front sags further south, continues to weaken, and a more stable environment settles in, expect the shower and thunderstorm activity to continue diminishing through the early evening. A break in showers should last through most of the night, though a scattering of showers is expected along the east coast in the morning/early afternoon associated with flow moving west across a low-level thermal trough. The showers should diminish by early afternoon as diurnal heating reduces the upslope component of the easterly flow. Later in the day on Monday, the Gulf breeze will clash with the background easterly flow to allow for a few showers and an isolated storm to develop across southwest FL. In the absence of a shortwave, expect 500mb temps to warm a little bit and deep-layer shear to decrease. Thus, the threat for strong to severe storms will be less than this afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Breezy northeast flow continues through at least mid-week as the surface pressure gradient remains tight. There will be a chance (30- 40%) for showers each day through the period as ample moisture remains with highest chances across local Atlantic waters and along the immediate east coast due to the breezier east-northeast flow. Surface flow veers more easterly towards the end of the week as surface high pressure across the western Atlantic builds westward.

High temperatures should remain in the low 80s for east coast metro areas, however due to the long duration easterly flow, a warming trend is expected for interior and Southwest Florida and highs could approach the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the work-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Thunderstorms and associated restrictions will be most likely from OPF through TMB over the next few hours. There after, VFR should prevail at all terminals through a majority of the night. Scattered light showers and MVFR ceilings will be possible down the east coast early tomorrow morning through early afternoon. Winds may gust around 20 knots from time to time tomorrow afternoon as well.

MARINE

Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Expect a scattering of showers and isolated thunderstorms each day and night. High pressure will spread across the Southeast this week and a strong easterly flow regime will become established. This will likely spread Small Craft Advisory conditions across the Atlantic waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

High risk of rip currents and elevated surf expected along Atlantic beaches this week as strong onshore flow develops.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 69 79 69 79 / 30 30 40 40 West Kendall 65 81 65 82 / 30 30 40 30 Opa-Locka 68 81 68 82 / 30 30 40 40 Homestead 68 80 69 82 / 30 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 69 78 69 79 / 40 30 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 69 78 69 79 / 40 30 50 40 Pembroke Pines 68 81 69 82 / 40 30 40 40 West Palm Beach 68 78 68 79 / 40 40 50 30 Boca Raton 68 78 68 79 / 40 40 50 30 Naples 65 83 64 84 / 40 40 50 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.