textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 - A cold front will approach the area this evening. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms could result in strong wind gusts and large hail.

- Temperatures will cool down on Tuesday behind the frontal passage.

- Hazardous boating conditions will be possible today in the Atlantic waters and spreading to all waters tomorrow after the passage of a cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Model guidance depict a trough/low complex moving across the Great Lakes region, pushing a long cold front into the SE CONUS and the Florida Peninsula later today. Winds will continue to veer ahead of the front with SoFlo now under generally SSW flow, and gradually shifting northward by the late evening/overnight hours behind the FROPA. POPs/Wx grids have been adjusted to show a little better coverage for the evening hours as NBM seems to be running drier than the rest of guidance.

Latest radar and satellite data show increasing thunderstorm activity around the Atlantic coastal waters, which should gradually shift over land as winds veer more SW. Additional bands of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop along the Atlantic metro areas through the rest of this afternoon.

Timing for the bulk of the weather associated with the arrival of the front remains in the evening-early overnight hours tonight, with main hazards including lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, large hail and localized flooding. Latest guidance show fair agreement in keeping the best dynamic support over northern Florida, with latest SPC outlook keeping SoFlo under Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Guidance also show fair agreement between solutions about the arrival of the front later tonight, keeping POPs/Wx coverage in the 60-70 percent range across much of SoFlo through the late night hours.

A cooler airmass will descend upon the area in the wake of the FROPA. By early Tuesday morning expect northerly winds to spread across SoFlo. However, enough leftover moisture should remain in place for keeping low-end POPs in the forecast through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will cool down on Tuesday behind the FROPA with afternoon highs some 10-12 degrees colder than previous days. Expect highs in the low-mid 60s inland, and low 70s near the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 218 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Northerly flow will prevail across the area, promoting cooler conditions through the end of the week. Overnight temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday nights will drop to the upper 40s and lower 50s across the interior, and low 60s along the East Coast. Daytime temperatures for the rest of the week will remain in the comfortable 70s, gradually rising to the 80s over the weekend.

Model guidance shows the aforementioned front lingering over the FL straits and western Caribbean waters on Wednesday. Its presence near our area will help maintain moisture in place along the atmospheric column, keeping chances for showers and a few thunderstorms in the 30-40% range for portions of the East Coast metro on Wednesday and Thursday. The front is forecast to dissipate come Friday, and surface high will build over the region, ushering dry, sunny conditions in time for the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Moderate to breezy winds will gradually veer from SW to N through Tuesday afternoon with periods of gusts to around 25 kts at times. TEMPOS are in place for MVFR periods, with potential for AMDS to IFR with an approaching cold front and its associated line of showers and thunderstorms. APF will receive the first round of RA/TS, then the Atlantic terminals from north to south. Precipitation chances decrease after the front passes through but broken to overcast high clouds will remain.

MARINE

Issued at 218 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A moderate to breezy southeasterly breeze will prevail across all local waters today ahead of a frontal approach late tonight. Seas will remain below 3 feet across the Gulf waters, and between 3-5 feet across the Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers will be possible across all local waters today, with potentially rough seas and strong winds near any storms. Winds will increase out of the north behind the front on Tuesday, resulting in hazardous conditions through the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 218 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Palm Beach and Broward county beaches will be at high risk of rip currents today as northerly swell persists.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 64 70 59 73 / 80 30 30 50 West Kendall 62 73 56 76 / 80 30 30 50 Opa-Locka 64 72 59 75 / 80 30 30 40 Homestead 65 74 60 76 / 80 40 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 61 68 58 71 / 80 30 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 62 68 59 71 / 80 30 20 40 Pembroke Pines 64 72 60 75 / 80 30 30 40 West Palm Beach 59 66 58 71 / 70 20 10 30 Boca Raton 61 68 58 72 / 70 30 20 40 Naples 57 68 53 73 / 50 10 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656- 657-676.