textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1258 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 - Dry and comfortable weather continues through Saturday.

- Above average temperatures continue through this weekend with highs increasing to the mid to upper 80s.

- Rain chances return for Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1258 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overall synoptic pattern remains dominated by a weak mid/uppr lvl ridge across the Caribbean and extending into southern Florida, keeping a generally light to moderate S flow in place today. Moisture and instability should remain suppressed enough to keep rain chances a minimum, with POPs/Wx grids in single digits through Saturday.

Meanwhile, latest ensembles and NBM solutions depict a weak meso-low over Carolinas gradually lifting NE today, with an associated sfc boundary sliding into northern Florida. As the low departs, the decaying boundary seems to linger over the northern half of the peninsula through the rest of the weekend, but with little influence expected over SoFlo. The main impact will be a shift in winds to the SW ahead of the front, which in turn will push afternoon temps a degree or two higher than previous days.

Models still hint at having enough lingering low level moisture for nighttime radiational cooling to work with and bring overnight periods of patchy to localized dense fog tonight into Saturday morning. Best chances reside over interior areas, but locations known for fog development around the Atlantic metro areas like west Miami-Dade and central/western Broward may also see some fog activity, especially near sunrise.

High temperatures will remain above average underneath the aforementioned ridge, generally in the low to mid 80s today and tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 116 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Elongated troughing will set up across most of the entire CONUS with exceptions being Central and South Florida and the Desert Southwest. As this pattern continues to advect eastward, the mid-level ridge currently over the area will begin to be pushed away into the Atlantic on Sunday into Monday and the upper level ridge over the Caribbean and Florida Straits will begin to break down as well. During this same time frame, the trough will continue to amplify as it swings into the Mid-Atlantic and an attendant cold front along the leading edge of the trough will rush southwards and is expected to move through South Florida on Monday. Ahead of the front, low level wind flow will shift southerly and lead to an increase in moisture advection as PWATs climb back above 1.5". As the frontal boundary propagates southwards, it will provide necessary forcing for ascent that will be able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region especially on Monday. Current general QPF across the region is forecast for less than 1 inch, with 90th percentile (potential high-end) total precip of 1-2". Due to the recent long dry stretch, this amount of rain would not pose impactful weather and in fact would provide some much needed rainfall. The only risk will be an isolated location receiving high- end rainfall in a short duration of time. However, brisk flow aloft (20-30 kts) should prevent the risk of isolated locations receiving high amounts of rain in a short time. We will continue to update the rainfall forecast as this cold frontal passage gets closer this weekend.

Behind the cold front heading into the middle of next week, the front has potential to stall out as it reaches the Florida Straits which could leave some lingering moisture behind in parts of SE Florida and guidance does hint at another shortwave trough possibly moving through around Wed-Thu next week. Regardless, any lingering rainfall for portions of SE Florida should be minimal if these trends continue where some moisture lingers. Thus, expect quieter weather to return post-front for the middle of next week and into late next week.

High temperatures will remain above average on Sunday into the mid 80s and even upper 80s possible for the interior. These temps will fall on Monday and continuing into the middle of next week as the cold front passes with temps primarily in the upper 70s. Overnight lows will dip as well starting Monday night with temps falling into the low 50s west of Lake O and the 60s elsewhere.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR expected to continue at all terminals for the next 24 hours. SSE winds this afternoon between 7 to 10 kts, then becoming L/V after 00-01Z. At KAPF, winds will shift SW after 18-19z as a Gulf breeze develops this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 116 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

A gentle to moderate breeze is expected for the next few days and will shift from an easterly direction to a southerly direction later today. There remains no threat for showers through Saturday, leading to ongoing benign conditions. Seas are expected to be 1-2 feet or less across all local waters through this weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 116 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

There is a moderate risk for rip currents at the Palm beaches today with a low risk for the other beaches along the Atlantic coast. This moderate risk is expected to fall off this weekend and result in a low risk for all beaches over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 69 84 71 85 / 10 0 0 10 West Kendall 65 86 67 86 / 10 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 68 86 69 86 / 10 0 0 10 Homestead 69 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 69 84 70 84 / 10 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 69 84 70 85 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 68 86 69 86 / 10 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 67 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 68 86 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 69 82 68 83 / 0 0 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.