textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 234 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are again expected in the afternoon and evening hours today, favoring interior and western areas. The main hazards from these storms will be gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the beginning of the week for most urban locations.

- Drier conditions are expected on Monday, but rain chances will increase once again for the middle to end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Isolated to scattered showers have been moving onshore over the Broward and Palm Beach metros during the course of the morning and early afternoon. However, thunderstorm activity for the rest of the afternoon to early evening will focus over interior and southwest Florida as the Atlantic sea-breeze continues to push inland under a more dominant east-southeast flow. The 12Z MFL sounding showed a pretty moist environment, with PWATS of 1.9 inches. But recent aircraft sounding profiles from KMIA and KRSW indicate that moisture may be on the downtrend, which could be the influence of the approaching Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which is mostly over the Carribean Sea at this time. With mid-level high pressure squarely over Florida, little to no shear, and surface highs over the Atlantic and Gulf, forcing will be lacking. Most of the stronger storm activity for today will focus along the Gulf breeze in southwest Florida, where steep low level lapse rates should contribute to some more robust convection. Some drier air aloft and weaker mid- level lapse rates will hinder thunderstorm growth, but with ample DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, if a few cores were to get elevated, a few strong downdraft winds may be a concern. Overall, the main threats will be frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours of 2 to 3 inches.

Model forecast soundings indicate that the drier air associated with the SAL will infiltrate the region tomorrow. PWATs will drop to below average for this time of year and mid-level RH looks to drop below 50%. As a result, PoPs for tomorrow afternoon have continued to tank, with only about a 20% to 30% chance at most along the Gulf breeze in southwest Florida. Similar to the last few days, the dominant wind regime will remain out of the southeast at 10 to 15 kts, pushing the Atlantic sea-breeze further inland and keeping eastern areas mostly dry and sunny.

Heat will continue to be one of the primary concerns over the next few days, with widespread to Moderate to Major HeatRisk across all urban locations. The more dominant easterly flow will allow for warmer temperatures to focus along southwest Florida, but a few isolated locations in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach may see heat indices near 105 F. Upper level ridging will continue to strengthen over the northern Gulf on Monday, with continued WAA from southeast flow. Apparent temperatures look to climb 3 to 4 degrees higher for Monday, with probabilities of apparent temperatures greater than 105 F being greater than 80% for parts of the Naples metro. The issuance of a Heat Advisory is looking increasing likely for Collier County, but will punt the decision off to the next shift for further analysis. Regardless, these conditions will affect anyone without proper cooling and hydration. There will also be little relief overnight, with lows in the upper 70s and low 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The drier weather won't last long with guidance show a developing low pressure system just east of the Carolinas, which sends a weak frontal boundary into the northern half of the Florida peninsula late Monday into Tuesday. The boundary will slowly drift southward through the end of the work week, steadily raising chances of rain and thunderstorms.

Highest chances of rain are expected from Wednesday through Saturday with highest PoPs in the 80% range each afternoon as deeper moisture filters into the area. But even with the approaching frontal boundary, pressure gradients should remain relaxed enough to keep winds generally light to moderate, and allow for afternoon sea breezes to develop. Early afternoon convection will likely be driven by the sea breeze boundaries pushing inland. Outflow boundary collisions will likely drive late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms, which will continue to favor interior areas. But some storms may either develop over coastal metro areas early in the afternoon, or drift into them later in the day or in the early evening hours.

HeatRisk at the Moderate to Major level will continue to be the main concern each day. The situation will continue to be closely monitored in case a Heat Advisory becomes necessary. Expect afternoon highs to keep reaching the low-mid 90s each day, with a few upper 90s certainly possible, mainly over interior and west coast locations.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Scattered showers are ongoing over parts of the southeast Florida, bringing brief MVFR conditions to terminals. Overall most sites will remain at VFR through the period, with east to southeast winds of 8 to 12 kts. The exception will be KAPF, where the Gulf breeze will shift winds west and initiate some thunderstorm activity. Activity wanes after sunset, with winds becoming light and variable area-wide.

MARINE

Issued at 410 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

High pressure remains in control of the region through Monday with light to moderate SSE winds over the Atlantic waters, becoming SSW over the Gulf waters with afternoon sea breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over coastal areas and move over land at times during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Increasing thunderstorm activity is possible for the second half of the work week as a frontal boundary reaches central Florida. Thunderstorms may produce locally strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain in the 2-3 feet range or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 93 79 94 / 0 0 0 40 West Kendall 77 94 77 95 / 0 10 10 50 Opa-Locka 80 95 79 95 / 0 0 0 40 Homestead 80 93 79 94 / 0 0 0 40 Fort Lauderdale 81 92 80 93 / 0 0 0 30 N Ft Lauderdale 80 92 79 93 / 0 0 0 30 Pembroke Pines 81 96 80 97 / 0 0 10 40 West Palm Beach 79 92 78 93 / 0 0 0 40 Boca Raton 80 91 79 93 / 0 0 0 40 Naples 77 94 79 93 / 10 10 20 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.