textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

- A fog/smoke mix may create exceptionally dangerous driving conditions across portions of I-75, Tamiami Trail, and SR-29 through daybreak this morning. Patchy dense fog is possible closer to both coasts.

- Rain chances will trend upwards over the next several days, but widespread meaningful rain amounts are not expected.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 304 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

The eastern CONUS trough will continue amplifying through Friday as a shortwave currently over the Southern Plains drops into the base of the longwave trough across the Southeast by tomorrow evening. This will bring a surface front through the Southeast and into north Florida by tomorrow night. As we await the front to reach south Florida, low-level flow will remain out of the south along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Dry mid and upper level air will reside over south Florida between the frontal system to our north and the encroaching tropical airmass to the south. This setup will favor the development of fog across south Florida tonight as winds calm. While dense fog would typically be a concern in this environment, it's made worse in a few spots by the ongoing wildfires in the Big Cypress National Preserve. In these areas, where fog and smoke have the potential to mix, near-zero visibilities will be possible making driving through these areas quite dangerous. The main areas of concern would be Alligator Alley and Tamiami Trail near SR-29. Fog will lift into low cloudiness tomorrow morning and eventually scatter out by late morning.

As the mid/upper dry air gets squeezed out to the NE between the aforementioned airmasses, conditions may become favorable enough for a few showers and storms to develop where the Atlantic and Lake breezes meet across northern portions of south Florida. Elsewhere, weakly forced showers may develop in a very isolated nature along and near the east coast.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

The evolution of how ensemble guidance has been handling the progression of the mid-level shortwave over the past 48 hours has been rather interesting as the latest guidance (ECENS, GEFS, AI ECENS, AI GEFS) now shows the shortwave slowing in forward motion across the Florida Peninsula and weakening in strength before sliding to the east of the region on Monday. The progression and timing of the mid-level feature will have direct implications on the progression of the surface frontal boundary across the Florida Peninsula. As the forecast stands this morning, Saturday continues to feature the highest rain chances sitting in the ballpark of 30- 50% across the region as precipitable water values increase into the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range. As the frontal boundary becomes frontolytic in the vicinity of our region this upcoming weekend, the envelope of deeper moisture (relative to what we have experienced recently) will remain draped across the region through the mid-week period.

With the departure of the mid-level shortwave to the east of the region early next week, a quiet period is ushered in on the synoptic scale across South Florida as mid-level ridging sets up shop across South Florida and surrounding waters. A developing pressure gradient across the region will usher in breezy conditions along the east coast through mid-week as a resultant temperature gradient occurs. Forecast high temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s along the East coast to mid to upper 80s along the Gulf coast, Monday through Thursday. Residual moisture will result in the potential of shower activity each afternoon (greatest foci across the eastern half of the region) through early next week as high and low temperatures remain above average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Light winds will continue through daybreak with the potential of dense fog across most of inland South Florida. Sub MVFR/LIFR cigs are possible at KAPF through 13z. Winds will remain mainly SE to SSE around 10kt with higher gusts, except for a westerly shift at APF with afternoon sea breezes. Added in VCSH at northern east coast terminals to account for scattered shower activity.

MARINE

Issued at 304 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Light winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend. Expect a scattering of showers each day and night. Early next week, as high pressure spreads across the Southeast, a strong easterly flow regime will become established and likely spread Advisory conditions across the Atlantic waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place at Palm Beach & Broward County beaches through this evening as northeasterly swell gradually subsides. The rip current risk returns next week along Atlantic beaches as strong onshore flow develops.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 304 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Meaningful rainfall is not expected across South Florida through the end of the week, with the exception of a few showers across the Lake region tomorrow. Flow will generally be southerly through this period as well, with a slightly onshore component closer to the coasts. Winds will generally stay at or below 10 mph, but infrequent gusts between 15 to 20 mph cannot be completely ruled out. Very Good dispersion indices today will fall into the Generally Good range tomorrow. Fog is expected tonight across South Florida (primarily away from the east coast urban corridor), and could be more dense than previous nights. Where the fog mixes with smoke from ongoing wildfires, dangerous reductions in visibilities should be expected and travelers should avoid these areas.

This weekend, a weakening frontal boundary will cross South Florida and bring a decent chance for at least some rain across the entire region. However, rainfall totals will likely not be enough in most locations to have a significant impact on the ongoing drought or wildfire activity. Less than a quarter of an inch will be common, with isolated locations possibly receiving 0.5-0.75". The primary window for this rainfall will be on Saturday.

Easterly flow will become established next week and keep a low chance for scattered showers in the forecast, especially across the eastern half of South Florida. But meaningful rainfall, or exceptionally dangerous fire weather conditions are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 69 83 67 / 20 20 40 30 West Kendall 84 64 85 62 / 20 10 40 20 Opa-Locka 84 67 84 66 / 20 20 50 30 Homestead 82 67 83 65 / 10 10 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 81 68 81 66 / 20 30 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 81 68 82 66 / 20 30 60 40 Pembroke Pines 84 67 84 66 / 20 20 50 40 West Palm Beach 82 67 83 65 / 30 40 70 50 Boca Raton 81 67 82 65 / 30 30 60 50 Naples 81 64 78 63 / 20 40 40 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.