textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026 - Enhanced fire weather conditions will develop across the interior this afternoon as minimum relative humidity values drop and range between 30 and 35 percent.

- A weakening frontal boundary could bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Lake Okeechobee region Wednesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A rather broad mid level trough will remain parked over the Eastern Seaboard through the middle of the week. At the surface, an area of high pressure will gradually slide southeastward today into the western Atlantic as a weakening cold front pushes into Northern and Central Florida as the day progresses. As winds will remain rather light and sea breeze driven today, some gradual moisture advection will start to take place as PWATs slowly rise and will eventually range between 0.8 and 1.0 inches by the late afternoon hours. With the influence of high pressure remaining in place through most of the day and the weakening front staying north of the area, this will allow for mainly dry conditions to continue across South Florida today. High temperatures this afternoon will generally rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas as well as the Southwest Florida coast. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s across the interior locations.

The weakening frontal boundary will gradually stall out over Central Florida tonight and will remain parked off to the north heading into Wednesday. With just enough lower level moisture remaining in place combined with light winds and a mostly clear sky, areas of fog will once again be possible mainly over Southwest Florida late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Some of the fog could become locally dense especially across interior portions of Southwest Florida during the pre dawn hours on Wednesday. Any fog that does develop will begin to lift shortly after sunrise Wednesday morning.

As the rest of Wednesday progresses, a weak shortwave impulse will slide towards the Lake Okeechobee region heading into Wednesday afternoon. At the same time, moisture advection will still be taking place as PWATs continue to gradually rise and range from around an inch across the east coast metro areas to near 1.3 inches further north across the Lake Okeechobee region. These additional ingredients combined with the weakening front parked off to the north will provide for a low end chance (20 to 30 percent) of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon mainly along and north of Alligator Alley. While strong thunderstorm development will remain rather limited, there may be just enough lift and instability around the Lake Okeechobee region later in the afternoon as the weak mid level shortwave pushes through to support a stronger storm with gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas as well as the Southwest Florida coast while mid to upper 80s are anticipated across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Mid level troughing will quickly give way to a rather large and expansive mid level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains. South Florida will remain on the eastern periphery of this ridge through the end of the week. At the surface, the weak frontal boundary that stalled to the north will rapidly wash out on Thursday as high pressure builds over the region for the rest of the week. While this will set up a light easterly synoptic wind flow across the region during this time frame, winds will be driven by sea breeze development each afternoon through the end of the week. While mainly dry conditions will remain in place, there will be enough remnant lower level moisture that remains pooled over South Florida during this time frame. This may be just enough to spark off some isolated shower activity as the sea breezes push inland each afternoon. While most of the shower activity will be low topped, an isolated heavy downpour cannot be ruled out during this time frame with some of the stronger showers. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be warmer due to the expansive ridging building overhead. Afternoon temperatures will rise into the lower 80s along the east coast metro areas, and into the mid to upper 80s across the rest of the region. Some interior portions of Southwest Florida may hit 90 during this time frame.

The weather pattern will start to show signs of change once again heading into the upcoming weekend as an amplifying mid level shortwave trough pushes north of the region across the Northeast on Saturday, and then eventually into the Atlantic moving into Saturday night and Sunday. This shortwave will try to flatten the eastern periphery of the expansive ridge keeping it centered and elongated over the Southern Plains and the Gulf during this time frame. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will push off the Southeast coastline on Saturday. This boundary will extend southwestward and move across Northern and Central Florida as Saturday progresses and then eventually into South Florida later on Saturday and into Sunday.

The forecast uncertainty does start to increase during this time frame due to exact timing of the front as well as the intensity of the front as it pushes into the region. While moisture will pool along and ahead of the front, the limiting factor here for stronger thunderstorm development on Sunday could be exactly how much the mid level shortwave trough flattens the expansive ridge centered off to the northwest. If the trough has trouble breaking down the ridging over the region, this could allow for drier air to remain in place across the mid to upper levels of the atmospheric column during this time frame which could keep shower activity low topped. While all of this is taking place, the pressure gradient across the region will be rapidly increasing during the second half of the weekend due to a very strong surface high trying to push in from the north. While the exact details still need to be worked out, there does remain the potential for some heavier rainfall due to potential frictional coastal convergence setting up on Sunday with the increased pressure gradient in place. The latest forecast reflects low end chances of showers on Saturday, with increasing chances area wide heading into the second half of the weekend. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Primarily VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light and variable flow overnight becoming Southeasterly by early Wednesday afternoon. Brief patchy fog may be possible at APF early Wednesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A light to gentle variable breeze will develop across all local waters today and this will remain in place through the middle of the week as high pressure continues to slide southeastward in the western Atlantic. A weakening frontal boundary could bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to local waters on Wednesday afternoon. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less today, however, seas across the northern Atlantic waters will increase late tonight into Wednesday and could become hazardous during this time frame as a northeasterly swell develops.

BEACHES

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches today. A high risk of rip currents will develop across the Palm Beaches on Wednesday as a northeasterly swell develops in the Atlantic. This swell will also create a moderate risk of rip currents across the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches on Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A dry air mass will remain in place across South Florida today and this will cause minimum relative humidity values to plummet over the interior locations this afternoon. Most of these locations will see relative humidity values range between 30 to 35 percent this afternoon, however, some locations across interior Southwest Florida could see values drop below 30 percent. This will create enhanced fire weather conditions this afternoon. Conditions should gradually improve heading into Wednesday as moisture increases out ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 64 82 67 82 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 59 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 64 84 67 83 / 0 10 0 10 Homestead 63 82 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 64 81 67 80 / 0 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 64 82 68 80 / 0 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 64 84 67 84 / 0 10 0 10 West Palm Beach 64 82 67 81 / 0 10 10 0 Boca Raton 64 81 68 80 / 0 10 10 10 Naples 64 82 64 84 / 0 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650- 670.

GM...None.