textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Areas of dense fog expected early Saturday morning across SW FL.

- Dry and warm conditions forecast today.

- A strong cold front is forecast to move through the area early next week, ushering drier, cooler conditions to the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Absolutely beautiful Friday across South FL with mainly clear skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80. Probabilities for dense fog continue to increase for SW FL early Saturday morning, so added areas of fog into the grids. Headlines may be issued overnight if it looks like the fog will be widespread across Collier, Glades, and Hendry. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 142 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

The weather pattern will remain generally unchanged for the duration of the short term period as mid-level ridging remains established over the Gulf. However, the ridge axis and attendant surface high will gradually shift southward through the period, with the FL peninsula will remain in the eastern periphery of both features. This will allow for light northerly winds and dry air advection to persist as we head into the weekend. in fact, most guidance forecasts abnormally low moisture values along the column, with PWATs of 0.7-1.0 inch, between the 25th and 50th percentiles based on the climatology for this time of year. Nevertheless, high res models are trying to develop some stray showers over the local Atlantic waters each afternoon, so we bumped up the PoPs a touch from the baseline NBM to reflect that possibility.

Areas of patchy fog could be possible across the interior once again tonight given light winds and sufficient low-level moisture. SREF and HREF guidance suggests coverage should remain patchy in nature, but visibility in some areas could drop below 1 mile at times, resulting in hazardous commuting conditions.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will top off in the upper 70s and lower 80s, while lows could drop into the low-mid 60s along the East Coast, and into the mid 50s over the interior. These temperatures are a few degrees above normals (which are in the 76- 78F range) but should remain well below record values (in the upper 80s).

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 142 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

A pattern change approaches as enter the new week and the aforementioned trough quickly progresses eastward, dragging a strong cold front along with it. This front is forecast to move across the southeastern US on Sunday, causing winds locally to gradually start veering from the east throughout the day, advecting moisture-rich air back into the region. Nevertheless, guidance is not very excited about rain chances as a result, so conditions should remain mostly dry through the start of next week.

Most guidance remains in agreement with the front dropping along the FL peninsula early next week, and crossing South Florida near the middle of the week. At this time, a few minor differences remain between models ensembles from the three major suites (GEFS, ECMWF, GEPS), and mainly show very slight variations in intensity and speed for the parent trough and surface low. The ECMWF members generally favor a stronger system, the GFS weakens it somewhat, and both slow it down a little compared to previous model runs; wherein previous model runs had the front coming through Monday- Tuesday, now it looks like it approaches later in the week, closer to Tuesday-Wednesday. It's important to note that the weaker solutions are also the warmer solutions, but the overall number of ensemble members that support that possibility at this time remains on the lower end. All things considered, the bulk of the solutions favor a slower, strong system, and thus a slower, cooler frontal approach. The NBM depicts that consensus fairly well, with the bulk of convection associated with the front (meager though it may be), occurring Tuesday into Wednesday, and the cool snap truly hitting mid-to-late week.

Surface high is forecast to build behind the front as breezy northerly winds advect cool, dry air over the region. Temperatures remain warm ahead of the front, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s through Tuesday, and lows in the mid 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures drop by a few degrees as we welcome to 2026.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

VFR through the evening. Easterly winds develop this afternoon with a westerly Gulf breeze expected at APF. Light and variable winds overnight. Areas of dense fog expected early Saturday morning across SW FL. Added a tempo for lower visbys at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 142 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Light to moderate northerly winds will prevail Thursday and Friday as a ridge of high pressure remains in place over the Gulf. A few isolated showers will remain possible across the eastern half of South Florida today. Seas should remain below 3 ft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 63 81 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 57 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 62 82 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 61 81 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 62 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 62 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 61 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 61 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 61 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 59 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.