textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Scattered showers continue the remainder of the afternoon and evening favoring east coast metro areas.

- A strong cold front moves across the peninsula on Thursday, bringing increased rain chances in the morning hours and much colder temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Low temperatures early Friday morning will range from the lower 30s around Lake Okeechobee and inland South Florida to the lower 40s for coastal metro areas. Apparent temperatures could drop into the mid 20s around the lake, with mid 30s to lower 40s possible for coastal metro areas.

- Hazardous marine conditions will return to all local waters beginning Thursday afternoon with strong west-northwest winds between 25-30kts. This breezy westerly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents across Collier County beaches beginning Thursday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 136 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Guidance continues to trend slightly cooler in terms of low temperatures for Thursday night into Friday morning. Went ahead and issued a Freeze Watch for Glades and Hendry counties as NBM probabilities of sub-freezing temperatures remain in the 40-60% range this afternoon. Cold Weather Advisories will also likely be needed for the remaining interior areas of South Florida, and could be issued within the next 1-2 forecast packages. Breezy west- northwest flow is expected across local waters beginning Thursday afternoon, so Small Craft Advisories were issued for all local waters with this update. Additionally, breezy west flow will increase the risk for rip currents across Collier County beaches early Thursday morning through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Ensembles guidance, along with global solutions, describe a rather progressive synoptic pattern through Thursday, with a deepening mid/upper lvl trough stretching across the entire Atlantic coastline, pushing the 540/dam into central Florida by Thursday afternoon. At the sfc, an associated frontal boundary is expected to reach the area during the Thursday morning time frame with rain chances increasing and spreading across all of SoFlo.

Today will see a similar weather pattern as the previous day with prevailing westerly flow keeping 30-40 POPs focused over the east coast metro areas in the afternoon and early evening hours. Slightly steeper lapse rates may combine with daytime heating for an isolated thunderstorms or two to develop, again favoring east coast locations. Then later tonight shower coverage will begin increasing north-to-south with the anticipated FROPA.

Thursday early/mid morning seems to be the window for the highest chances of rain with scattered to numerous showers possible (50-70 POps area-wide). Model PWATs show values around 1.5", along with HREF-QPF max around 1". Lifting/dynamic support remains poor as the parent trough/low complex will be pulling NE into the eastern seaboard. But latest guidance suggest a limited pool of instability over the southern-most areas of the CWA for a few thunderstorms to develop, mainly over the southern Atlantic waters and around central/eastern Miami-Dade.

High temperatures remain in the mid-upper 70s across much of SoFlo, with coastal areas hitting low 80s. Then temperatures cool down several degrees with increasing shower coverage with a frontal passage on Thursday, keeping afternoon temps in the upper 60s inland, and low-mid 70s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Long term consensus show synoptic flow over SoFlo veering northward Thursday night into Friday as strong high pressure descend upon much of the SE CONUS in the wake of a trough. A significantly colder/drier airmass will follow and trigger another cold air advection event into the state.

Coldest temperatures across SoFLo are still expected Friday morning before sunrise, with coastal areas dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and interior/northern areas in the low-mid 30s. Glades and Hendry may even drop to 30-31 degrees, for which protective actions against cold weather impacts will likely be necessary. Ensure to wear warm clothing not only for the cold air temperatures, but also for the wind chill values, which could drop into the mid 20s around the Lake region, and low-mid 30s elsewhere. Thus, conditons may require a Cold Weather Advisory Friday morning if these trends remain consistent in upcoming guidance. Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s. Temperatures then gradually warm up on Saturday, but still remaining around the low-mid 70s. Then on Sunday, models seem to suggest the onset of another cool down with yet another front approaching the area. Uncertainty in long range guidance has decreased and confidence has increased regarding having a dry FROPA for the late Sunday/Monday morning timeframe. Lows may again drop into the 30s and 40s, and Monday afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions will begin deteriorating after 09-10Z ahead of a frontal passage. Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis with showers will require tempos and ammds through around 15-16Z as the area of rain associated with the front clears the area. By this afternoon, winds will veer NW and NNW by this evening, with gusts in the 25-30kt range possible.

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Winds will gradually shift to the SW today over the Atlantic waters and increasing to around 15 kt. Over the Gulf, winds will veer further to the NW by the afternoon hours. Scattered shower activity will also continue through this late this afternoon, especially over the Atlantic waters. Showers and even potential for isolated thunderstorms will increase in the overnight to Thursday morning time period with the arrival of a cold front. Hazardous conditions are expected behind the front Thursday late morning and through Friday morning.

BEACHES

Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents remain in place for all the beaches of Palm Beach county today. By Thursday afternoon the risk may increase across much of the Atlantic beaches as winds increase behind a frontal passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 45 69 59 / 40 0 0 0 West Kendall 76 40 70 53 / 40 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 75 44 70 57 / 40 0 0 0 Homestead 76 44 70 57 / 40 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 73 44 68 59 / 50 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 73 44 69 59 / 50 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 74 42 69 56 / 40 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 71 42 68 57 / 50 0 0 0 Boca Raton 73 42 69 57 / 50 0 0 0 Naples 71 40 67 50 / 70 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ063- 066.

High Rip Current Risk from 4 AM EST early this morning through Friday morning for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657-676.