textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 653 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

- Mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms across SW Florida each afternoon through Tuesday. - Heat indices will rise into the upper 90s and lower 100s across most areas each afternoon through Wednesday.

- Atlantic beaches will remain under a high risk of rip currents through Tuesday evening.

- The arrival of deep tropical moisture across the region by Wednesday is expected to bring widespread rain with potential for localized flooding through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

For the Monday and Tuesday synoptic scenario, overall picture remains fairly persistent with a sfc ridge axis remaining in place across the midwest Atlantic, and extending into the northern Florida and the eastern Gulf. Aloft, a mid/upper lvl ridge remains over the SE CONUS and the region, helping in limiting available instability for deeper convection.

Model consensus show the ridge axis gradually pushing SE, but still remaining just north of SoFlo and keeping a generally ESE flow over the area through Tuesday. This wind regime will favor the east coast sea breeze, which will push further inland and into the western portions of the CWA each afternoon. The weaker afternoon Gulf breeze should remain pinned down against the west coast. As in previous days, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms remain over interior and western areas of SoFlo. Latest NBM/ensemble trends keep bringing POPs/Wx coverage down for the short term, seemingly giving more weight to the overall dominance of the ridges and their associated subsidence. For this afternoon, NBM keeps the Atlantic metro areas under single digit POPs, and down to 15-20% for the immediate west coast. Similar pattern continues on Tuesday but with slightly higher POPs, 15-20% for the east coast and 20-40% interior and west coast with increasing moisture. In general, expect mainly isolated showers with embedded thunderstorms each afternoon favoring interior and west coast areas.

Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s to around 90 along the East Coast, and up into the mid 90s over west coast areas. Heat indices will peak in the upper 90s to around 100 across the East Coast, and up into the mid 100s over southwest FL.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Long term solutions continue to trend towards an active, unsettled weather pattern starting Wednesday with the mid lvl ridge being weaken and pushed further east by a series of shortwave troughs passing across the area during the long term. Meanwhile, the sfc ridge also weakens and migrates further south and away from the state, resulting in flow veering S/SW and triggering a moisture advection pattern that should last through the weekend. This will tap into the pool of deeper moisture over the western Caribbean and the SE Gulf waters, with model PWAts approaching 2 inches on Thursday.

Models show the initial surge of moisture peaking on Thursday, which along with one of the aforementioned shortwaves will result in POPs approaching the 75-80% range and becoming widespread across SoFlo. Then for the rest of the long term, the unsettled weather pattern continues with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Potential for heavy rain and localized flooding will also become one of the main hazards for the long term.

Temperatures remain hot through Friday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, then a modest relief is expected for the weekend persistent cloud cover and shower help in keeping highs down a couple of degrees. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR prevails over the Atlantic terminals during the next 24 hours, while APF may experience brief periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis under showers and thunderstorms after 18Z. ESE winds will range between 10 to 15 kts today with gusts in the 20 to 30 kts range.

MARINE

Issued at 429 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Moderate to breezy east-southeast winds will persist across most of the local waters through Tuesday. Some periods of afternoon gusty winds are possible over the Atlantic waters during the next couple of days. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become west southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day through the middle of the week, then numerous showers and storms possible for the second half of the week as winds shift to a more southerly flow over both the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Strong onshore flow is keeping a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through at least Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 78 89 78 / 10 20 10 30 West Kendall 90 76 90 77 / 0 20 10 30 Opa-Locka 90 78 91 78 / 10 20 10 30 Homestead 89 79 90 79 / 10 20 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 87 79 88 80 / 10 20 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 87 79 88 79 / 10 20 20 40 Pembroke Pines 91 79 91 79 / 10 20 10 40 West Palm Beach 88 80 88 80 / 10 30 20 30 Boca Raton 87 80 88 80 / 10 30 20 40 Naples 92 77 92 77 / 10 10 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.