textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 642 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- A rather unsettled weather pattern will remain in place through the rest of the weekend and the early portion of next week with high chances of showers and thunderstorms.

- The stronger thunderstorms could contain strong gusty winds as well as downpours with high rainfall rates that could lead to localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

- High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon through the rest of the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A rather wet and unsettled period will continue through tonight and into Sunday across South Florida as a weak TUTT feature remains parked over the region. This will continue to provide an extra source of lift and instability over the region through the rest of the weekend. At the surface, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to provide a light to moderate east to southeasterly synoptic wind flow during this time frame. Moisture advection will continue to take place through the rest of the weekend as PWAT values will generally range between 2.0 and 2.3 inches. While ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish over the interior as well as Southwest Florida as this evening progresses, additional convective development will remain possible over the Atlantic waters as well as the east coast metro areas overnight into Sunday morning. The coverage may once again be higher than that of the typical summertime pattern due to the TUTT providing an extra source of lift. While the highest chances of convection will remain over the east coast and Atlantic waters overnight into Sunday morning, the highest chances will gradually shift towards the interior and Southwest Florida heading into the afternoon and early evening hours. With the sea breeze interactions combined with cooler temperatures aloft and plenty of instability in place due to diurnal heating, some of these thunderstorms could become strong to marginally severe in the afternoon. These storms would be capable of producing gusty winds and very heavy downpours. The storms with the higher rainfall rates will also keep the potential of localized flooding in place over the urban and low lying areas through the rest of the weekend.

Low temperatures tonight will remain on the warm side as they will range from the lower 70s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas. High temperatures on Sunday will generally rise into the lower 90s across most areas. Peak heat index values on Sunday will be highly dependent on storm coverage and cloud cover, whereas areas that have less cloud cover could see heat index values range between 105 and 110.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1050 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Towards the end of the weekend, the aforementioned upper level trough will eject eastward, dragging a surface front across the southeastern US. At the same time, weak TUTTs will continue to approach the peninsula. Easterly to southeasterly flow will continue across our region, with PWATs continuing to trend near normal or slightly above normal (1.9-2.1 inch range). Each afternoon could bring scattered to numerous showers and storms, starting along the East coast sea breeze boundary then proceeding inland into the late afternoon hours. Similarly to the short term period, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will all remain possible hazards.

Starting next week, once the trough and front progress eastward, models suggest the two flanking ridges over the US and western Atlantic will start to merge, extending across the entire region. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain likely each afternoon, with coverage maximized across the interior and southwest FL thanks to the continuing easterly flow.

Temperatures through the period will remain seasonably hot, with highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon and overnight lows in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the evening hours. Rather light winds tonight will increase out of the SE between 14-16z and will range between 5-10 kts through the afternoon hours across the east coast terminals. Scattered showers and storms could develop near the east coast terminals on Sunday morning before gradually shifting towards the interior and west coast as Sunday afternoon progresses. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WSW after 17z Sunday as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A gentle to moderate east southeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion of the week. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters where winds may become south southwest each afternoon. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each day during this time frame. Gusty and erratic winds will remain possible in and around thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 92 81 92 / 30 60 30 70 West Kendall 79 92 80 92 / 30 60 30 70 Opa-Locka 80 93 80 93 / 30 70 40 70 Homestead 80 92 79 92 / 30 60 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 82 91 / 30 60 50 70 N Ft Lauderdale 82 92 81 91 / 30 70 50 70 Pembroke Pines 82 92 82 92 / 30 70 40 70 West Palm Beach 80 92 80 92 / 40 70 60 80 Boca Raton 80 90 81 90 / 30 70 50 70 Naples 77 92 77 92 / 50 80 40 80

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.