textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 227 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for coastal/metro Miami-Dade and Broward. Further heat concerns are expected for all of South FL the rest of this week. This may cause heat related concerns for sensitive populations.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening. Heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and poor drainage flooding.

- Minor coastal flooding is possible this afternoon during high tide for Coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Current satellite imagery shows bands of agitated cumulus developing over central South Florida early this afternoon. In fact, one cell has grown into a small thunderstorm to the west of FLL. We're expecting additional scattered thunderstorms to develop near the east Florida coast during this afternoon as they the bands of cumulus interact with the seabreeze. CAMs show activity initiating farther south towards Miami (similar to the current storm) but the focus should shift north towards KPBI as the afternoon progresses. With PWAT values near 2", deeper column moisture, and slow storm motions, thunderstorms will be efficient rainfall producers, which could lead to high rainfall amounts (if a storm can sit over a certain area for a prolonged period of time). There is a risk of localized urban and poor drainage flooding, particularly farther north along the coast (toward Palm Beach and Broward counties). A few stronger storms may also produce strong, downburst winds and small hail. The convection will dissipate this evening as we lose daytime heating. Tuesday's weather should behave very similarly with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms with activity shifted even slightly more northward along the eastern Florida coast. CAMs seem to focus convection on Palm Beach and Broward counties once again while leaving most of the activity out of Miami-Dade.

Heat indices have climbed into the low to mid 100s this afternoon, so reaching the threshold for the warranted Heat Advisory. Showers and storms should temper conditions for most of the area as we go through this afternoon, but those who don't receive rain and/or thunderstorm outflows should remain hazardously hot. Tuesday's highs will be very similar to today's with a several locations progged to warm 1-2 degrees. Thus, another round of heat headlines seems probable Tuesday for much of the areas that were affected today.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The upper-level pattern doesn't look to undergo any drastic changes through the rest of this week. Surface high pressure will continue to persist over the western Atlantic through at least next weekend. Any frontal passages don't appear possible until next weekend as a low pressure system from the western Gulf gets absorbed into the upper-level trough crossing the eastern CONUS. But, even that frontal passage appears questionable as forecast models show the front losing steam and washing out as it gets farther south into Florida.

Our precipitation chances each will continue to be primarily diurnally driven by seabreeze convection. Highest PoPs will be favored inland and in western portions of the east coast metro. The overnight periods will be relatively quiet, but very muggy. Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal for the rest of this week with heat indices likely approaching advisory criteria each day. Values could max out at 105-110, which would warrant additional heat headlines. But, timing of diurnal showers and storms will have a large effect on whether certain areas/days will necessitate heat headlines.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop after 18z across the eastern half of the region this afternoon. Activity may be more focused over our southern terminals (OPF, MIA, TMB) initially but should shift north as the afternoon progresses. There will be potential for sub MVFR cigs and visibilities at east coast terminals with erratic wind shifts during TSRA. Outside of convection, light south-southwesterly winds will prevail through this afternoon. Winds become light and variable after sunset and then south- southwesterly again after 12z Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Gentle to moderate south-southwesterly winds have been present across the Atlantic today while gentle west-southwesterly winds have been seen across the Gulf. Wind direction should remain mostly the same for Tuesday but wind speeds will increase slightly over the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the area waters. Locally hazardous winds and seas are the main hazards with any storms, but otherwise seas will be at 2 feet or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 92 78 93 / 10 30 10 20 West Kendall 75 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 20 Opa-Locka 77 93 78 94 / 10 30 10 20 Homestead 77 92 79 93 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 78 91 79 92 / 20 30 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 77 91 78 92 / 20 40 20 20 Pembroke Pines 78 95 79 96 / 20 40 20 20 West Palm Beach 77 92 77 93 / 30 50 30 20 Boca Raton 77 91 79 92 / 30 50 20 20 Naples 79 90 78 92 / 0 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ072-074-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.