textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Low relative humidity levels are expected through early this upcoming week which may result in an enhanced fire risk. - A high risk of rip currents will continue today for the east coast beaches.

- Temperatures continue to gradually warm up through the next several days.

UPDATE

Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Only real change to the near term forecast was to lower the dewpoints for this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, as it appears that the NBM is too high, so blended towards the bottom end of guidance. Added a fire weather section below for the enhanced fire wx risk the next several days with the lower RH values expected. Otherwise, should be a beautiful weekend across South FL with plenty of sunshine and temperatures right around average.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Models depict ridging dominating both aloft and at the low lvls/sfc across the region as a broad H1025mb remains centered over the SE CONUS. MFL 00Z sounding finally show PWATs dropping to below 1 inch along with a sharp drying trend above 1 km. The sfc ridge axis is weakening pressure gradients across SoFlo with winds finally subsiding today, with periods of light and variable flow at times by this evening.

With the drying trend and overall subsidence prevailing over the area expect benign weather to continue through the rest of the weekend with POPs remaining in single digits each day.

The decrease in cloud cover will allow for more efficient daytime heating, with afternoon highs today in the upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest around the Gulf coast. Sunday may get even warmer with much of SoFlo in the mid-upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Long range model solutions depict ridging across the Gulf and the Florida peninsula remaining in place early next week. Overall subsidence will result in generally benign weather conditions through mid week.

Latest WPC analyses show a trough.low complex pushing an associated frontal boundary across the Se CONUS and into northern Florida late Tuesday into Wednesday. But model solutions insist in bringing a very weaken frontal boundary across the state, basically dissipating by Thursday just north of SoFlo. But it is still too early to have a concrete solution about possible rain and/or potential for thunderstorms for the Wed/Thu time frame. Latest NBM/GFS POPs keep low-end coverage (around 20-25%) lingering north of I-75 Wednesday afternoon, then quickly drying out through Friday. For now, forecast will keep carrying straight NBM grids and wait for upcoming guidance before making any other adjustments.

The persisting ridge axis over SoFlo will keep a wind profile on the weaker side with flow becoming light and variable at times. Efficient daytime heating and low cloud cover will allow for afternoon temps to climb back into the mid-upper 80s each day, and even a few spots touching the low 90s by Friday afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

NE winds around 10 kts this afternoon with a NW Gulf breeze at APF. Light and variable winds expected late tonight and overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Robust NNE winds and elevated seas will keep hazardous conditions over the Atlantic waters through Saturday. Hazardous winds expected through early this afternoon in the Gulf waters, remaining cautionary through the rest of today. Seas in the Atlantic 5-8 ft, and 3-6 ft in the Gulf. Scattered showers are expected today in the Atlantic waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

An elevated N/NE swell will keep the high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches for one more day, then subsiding in Miami and Broward beaches starting tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Very low RH values are expected across South Florida this weekend and into early next week. Min RH values over inland South FL will fall to 25-35 percent each afternoon. While winds are expected to remain light, the low RH levels and dry conditions will result in an enhanced fire wx risk the next several days. A reminder that Glades, Hendry, and Collier counties remain under county-enacted burn bans. Please contact your specific county government for details.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 60 81 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 55 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 60 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 60 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 60 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 60 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 60 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 59 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 60 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 59 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.