textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 123 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early evening.

- Elevated risk of rip currents today for the Palm Beaches and Collier county beaches.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 123 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery depicts a stalling front currently over central Florida, with dry air filling in behind. Two areas of non-tropical surface low pressure are currently spinning up along the boundary, one in the Atlantic and one in the northern Gulf. As the front sags southward across the state over the next couple of days, the Atlantic low will shift northeastward, following the main trough axis of the mid-level shortwave. The low over the Gulf will shift west and wash out over the peninsula along with the front, introducing some increased low-level moisture into the region. As a result of the persistent longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS and increased forcing from surface features, scattered showers are once again forecast for this afternoon. This pattern will also induce stronger west-southwest flow across the region, which will keep the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the immediate coast or even prevent it from developing all together. Overall, winds will generally be between 5 to 10 mph over land with some occasional gusts up to 20 mph, while winds over the waters will produce a light chop at 10 to 15 kts. Guidance continues to show a drier trend for today, with showers favoring interior portions of the state near Lake O for the first part of the afternoon (where low level lapse rates will be steepest). Showers then look to shift east closer to the Palm Beach coast for the late afternoon and into the early evening period.

Model soundings for tomorrow are showing a a sharp layer of mid- level dry air filtering into the region. PWATs look to drop into the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range and mid-level RH dropping below 70%. Guidance is also showing a subsidence inversion persisting through the early afternoon, which may cap the environment and prevent any convection from developing. Overall, most of the area will remain dry, with low 25% to 35% PoPs during the afternoon for parts of Broward and Dade counties. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across South Florida, above average for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This weekend into next week will see upper level high pressure settling into the Gulf while an upper low will settle into the eastern Carribean. Surface high pressure will be anchored into the western Atlantic. This will create a moderate easterly flow across South FL for much of the period. Convection will be more of a typical summertime pattern with diurnally driven storms during the afternoon and early evening, with the highest PoPs favoring inland and SW FL each day, and then coastal showers and isolated storms during the overnight period. PoPs are a touch higher than what we would expect to see for this time of year as some additional moisture is tapped into from the upper low over the eastern Carribean. Given the ongoing drought conditions, we'll take any and all rainfall we can get, especially across the Everglades and SW FL.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms already ongoing across interior South Florida and moving east towards the Atlantic metro areas. Brief periods of MVFR conditions for KPBI, KFXE, and KFLL through the middle afternoon as storms move overhead. Vicinity showers expected for the other eastern sites. Breezy southwesterly winds will persist through the evening, with winds becoming light and variable overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Increasing swell in the northern Atlantic waters today will result in near advisory level seas of 4-5 ft. Moderate west to southwest breeze developing today. Scattered thunderstorms may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. More benign conditions are expected for the end of the week, however occasional thunderstorms will still be possible each day.

BEACHES

Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

An increasing northerly swell will result in an elevated risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches today. In addition, moderate onshore flow this afternoon will result in an elevated risk for Collier county beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 75 90 75 89 / 10 20 20 20 West Kendall 72 92 71 91 / 10 20 10 20 Opa-Locka 74 91 75 90 / 10 30 20 20 Homestead 75 90 73 90 / 10 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 75 88 76 87 / 10 30 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 74 87 75 87 / 10 30 20 20 Pembroke Pines 75 92 76 91 / 10 30 20 20 West Palm Beach 73 86 74 87 / 10 20 10 10 Boca Raton 74 87 76 86 / 10 30 20 20 Naples 74 88 72 91 / 10 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.