textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 715 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 - Warm and mostly dry conditions will persist across the region through Saturday.

- Patchy fog could develop across inland South Florida early this morning, resulting in lower visibilities for early commuters.

- A moderate risk of rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches through tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Benign weather conditions will prevail through the short term period as ridging remains established over the Gulf waters and the western Atlantic region. This ridge of high pressure will help continue to promote subsidence across South Florida, and an anomalously dry air mass aloft will help limit chances for significant rainfall. However, some moisture has begun to filter in over the region as evidenced by the 00z MFL sounding and ACARS data from KMIA/KFLL/KPBI tonight, which show PWATs up to the 0.7-0.8 inch range, up from 0.5- 0.6 from the past couple of days. This gradual moistening of the lower levels (up to 1 inch by Saturday according to ensemble guidance) will allow for nuisance showers to form over the local Atlantic waters and the immediate East Coast along the sea breeze boundaries. NBM wasn't capturing this adequately, so went ahead and bumped up some of the PoPs up to the 15-20% range.

This gradual moistening, along with very light and variable winds early this morning, could lead to some patchy fog developing across inland FL. HREF and SREF show a low-end (15-30%)chance for fog to develop over the interior between 4-9AM today. This could result in reduced visibilities. Commuters are encouraged to exercise caution during the early morning commute.

With easterly winds prevailing near the surface and persistent subsidence, temperatures will continue to warm up as we head into the weekend. Highs today and on Saturday will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s over the southwest and interior FL, while they'll most likely cap out in the low 80s along the East Coast. Lows each day will drop into the 60s across the interior and low 70s along the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Conditions will remain generally unchanged through the weekend, but a gradual pattern change will begin to take hold across the continental US, which could result in unsettled weather for South Florida early next week.

Aloft, an upper-level trough will begin to dig across the Plains and the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, eroding the ridge over the Gulf and weakening the surface high. This gradual process will allow for moisture to continue filtering back into the region, with modeled PWATs surging back to near normal values for this time of the year (1.1-1.3 inches). This could allow for some isolated rainshowers to develop Sunday afternoon, especially along the sea breeze boundaries.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate early next week as an attendant surface low associated with the upper-level trough develops and moves across the Great Lakes region. As it does, it will drag a cold front south towards the Florida peninsula. Most model guidance shows this front dropping along the peninsula early in the week (between Monday-Tuesday) and clearing the area by midweek. Ahead of the front, chances for rainfall increased across the region, especially Monday evening and Tuesday. Cluster analysis of the ensemble guidance suggests that the model mean solution is a reasonable forecast option, and it shows scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving across the area, with up to an inch of rain possible.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards the middle and back half of the week. Some of the GEFS ensemble members show an upper level shortwave developing on the back of the aforementioned trough on Wednesday; this solution is also depicted in the deterministic GFS. This shortwave would push a surface low across the Gulf towards South Florida, resulting in increasing chances for rain and higher rainfall accumulation Wed-Thur. However, it's worth noting that the GEFS is the only model system that presents this solution at this time; neither the EPS (the ensemble ECMWF, which dominates the model mean), and the GEPS (the ensemble Canadian) show this shortwave trough and surface low developing and as such support a much drier solution Wed-Thur. Furthermore, those GEFS members presenting this solution account for a minority of the total ensemble envelope, with the majority of the european and canadian members in clear consensus for a drier solution. We'll have to continue monitoring this forecast, but for now we kept PoPs in the 15-20% range.

Above average temperatures will still be likely Sunday and Monday ahead of the frontal passage, but might be tempered a bit by cloudiness associated with the front. Highs both days will cap out in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the East Coast. Conditions could cool back down to more seasonable temperatures once the front moves across the area, with highs next week in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows each night could dip into the 50s across the interior, and down to the 60s along the coasts.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 715 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Generally light and variable winds early this morning will strengthen from the east by the early afternoon. Chance for a stray shower or two along the east coast this morning but not nearly enough confidence to include in TAF at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A moderate breeze will prevail across the local Atlantic waters as high pressure remains in place over the region. Lighter winds will set up over the Gulf waters. Seas will drop to 2-4 ft in the Atlantic and remain 2 feet or less in the Gulf. Another period of breezy, hazardous conditions could approach early next week with the passage of a cold front.

BEACHES

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Weakening onshore flow will promote a moderate risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 84 72 85 72 / 20 10 0 10 West Kendall 87 69 88 69 / 20 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 86 72 87 72 / 20 10 0 10 Homestead 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 82 72 83 72 / 20 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 82 72 84 72 / 20 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 87 74 88 74 / 20 10 0 10 West Palm Beach 83 71 84 71 / 20 10 10 10 Boca Raton 82 72 84 72 / 20 10 0 10 Naples 87 70 88 71 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.