textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1154 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026 - Chilly and dry conditions will remain in place across South Florida through Wednesday morning. - Dangerous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic and Gulf waters today and tonight due to strong northwesterly winds and elevated seas.

- Critical fire weather conditions have developed across South Florida where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Deep mid level troughing will remain in place today across the Florida Peninsula. The trough axis will gradually shift offshore into the western Atlantic tonight into Tuesday. At the surface, a strong and elongated area of high pressure will dive southeastward across the Plains and towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley as today progresses. As the southeastern periphery of this area of high pressure builds into South Florida, the pressure gradient will remain tight through today and into tonight. This will allow for a strong and gusty northwesterly wind flow to remain in place across the region during this time frame which will also bring very dry conditions to the area. With strong cold air advection taking place along the northwesterly wind flow, high temperatures today will remain well below normal as they will only rise to around 60 across the Lake Okeechobee region, and into the lower 60s across the rest of South Florida.

The coldest night of the week will occur tonight into early Tuesday morning as high pressure gradually pushes closer to the region and centers over the Deep South. As cold air advection continues, low temperatures will plummet and there remains high confidence that temperatures will drop below the freezing mark across the interior portions of Southwest Florida tonight into early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s will be common across a good portion of the rest of South Florida. The only exception to this will be across the east coast metro areas, where lows will drop into the lower 40s. With the breezy northwesterly wind flow remaining in place, wind chill values will be even colder as they will drop into the mid to upper 20s across the Lake Okeechobee region and interior portions of Southwest Florida. Wind chill values across the Gulf coast will drop into the lower 30s while the east coast metro areas will have wind chill values dropping into the mid 30s.

Tuesday will continue to feature dry and chilly conditions, however, as high pressure gradually centers over the Florida Peninsula, the pressure gradient will relax, and northwesterly winds will gradually subside as the day progresses. Cold air advection will be taking place throughout most of the day, however, as winds veer and become more northerly later in the day, cold air advection slowly begin to subside. High temperatures on Tuesday will once again be well below normal as they will range from the lower to mid 60s along and north of Alligator Alley. High temperatures may rise into the upper 60s south of Alligator Alley.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 129 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

While Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be chilly once again, it will feature more radiational cooling as winds will become light and variable with high pressure centered overhead. There remains a low chance (20 to 30 percent) that low temperatures will fall to the freezing mark west of Lake Okeechobee across portions of Glades County. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will fall into the mid to upper 30s across the rest of the interior portions of Southwest Florida. Low temperatures in the lower to mid 40s will be common along the Southwest Florida coast while low temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 will occur across the east coast metro areas during this time frame. As high pressure gradually shifts into the western Atlantic, a moderating trend in temperatures will begin as Wednesday progresses with dry conditions remaining in place. High temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the lower 70s along the coasts, however, they will rise into the mid to upper 70s across interior locations.

During the second half of the week, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite is showing signs of another mid level shortwave trough diving through the Southern Plains on Thursday, and eventually into the Deep South and the Gulf heading into Friday. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will remain the dominate weather feature across South Florida on Thursday keeping dry conditions in place along with warm temperatures.

On Friday into the upcoming weekend, uncertainty starts to rise in the forecast as another surface frontal boundary approaches from Northern and Central Florida. While this frontal boundary looks to remain to the north of the region on Friday, guidance remains in disagreement in how it handles the upstream shortwave trough heading into the upcoming weekend. This will play a role in the intensity and southeastward progression of the front moving into the upcoming weekend. While the exact details still need to be ironed out, there will be enough moisture advection taking place out ahead of the front to support an increased chance of showers for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the end of the week and the upcoming weekend look to rise above climatological normals for this time of year.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Gusty northerly to northwesterly winds will persist today, with sustained winds 15-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts possible. Gusty conditions begin to improve overnight as the pressure gradient lessens.

MARINE

Issued at 129 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Dangerous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic and Gulf waters today and tonight as a strong northwesterly breeze remains in place along with a northwesterly swell in the Gulf and a north northeasterly swell in the Atlantic. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 8 to 12 feet today, then 7 to 10 feet heading into tonight while seas across the Gulf waters will range from 6 to 9 feet today before slowly subsiding and ranging from 5 to 8 feet tonight. Hazardous marine conditions could linger into Tuesday across the Atlantic waters as the north northeasterly swell slowly subsides.

BEACHES

Issued at 129 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across all South Florida beaches today and tonight due to strong onshore winds along the Gulf coast, and a large north to northeasterly swell taking place across the Atlantic waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 129 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

As high pressure continues to build into the region today, critical fire weather conditions will develop across South Florida as minimum relative humidity values plummet and range between 20 to 30 percent across most of the region during this time frame. At the same time, a strong and gusty northwesterly wind flow will be taking place throughout the day as wind speeds of 15 to 20 mph will be common along with gusts ranging between 20 to 30 mph during this time frame. Because of this, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect for all of South Florida from 9 AM this morning through 7 PM tonight. While the winds will gradually subside heading into Tuesday, minimum relative humidity values will remain very low as they will once again range from 20 to 30 percent across most areas. The only exception to this will be along the immediate east coast where minimum relative humidity values will remain between 30 and 35 percent. These values could still lead to enhanced fire weather conditions throughout the region on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 42 65 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 36 67 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 41 66 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 39 66 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 41 65 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 41 65 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 41 67 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 39 64 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 40 64 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 39 64 44 73 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ068-069- 071>075-168-172>174.

Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ063- 066>071-073-168.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ063-066-070.

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ069.

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM... Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.