textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Areas of dense fog expected early Saturday and Sunday mornings across SW FL.

- Dry and warm conditions continue this weekend.

- A strong cold front is forecast to approach early next week, ushering drier, cooler conditions to the area.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

The weather pattern will remain generally unchanged for the duration of the short term period as mid-level ridging remains established over the Gulf. However, the ridge axis and attendant surface high will gradually shift southward through the period as troughing builds over the Rockies, and the FL peninsula will remain in the eastern periphery of both aforementioned features. This will allow for light northerly winds and dry air advection to persist through the weekend. in fact, most guidance forecasts abnormally low moisture values along the column, with PWATs of 0.7-1.0 inch, between the 25th and 50th percentiles based on the climatology for this time of year. As such, expect dry and sunny days with near-zero chances for rain.

Areas of patchy fog could be possible across the interior once again this morning and Sunday morning given light winds and sufficient low- level moisture. SREF and HREF guidance suggests coverage could become dense in nature, with visibility in some areas dropping below one quarter of a mile at times, resulting in hazardous commuting conditions.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will top off in the upper 70s and lower 80s, while lows could drop into the low-mid 60s along the East Coast, and into the mid 50s over the interior. These temperatures are a few degrees above normals (which are in the 76- 78F range) but should remain well below record values (in the upper 80s).

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

A pattern change approaches as we enter the new week and the aforementioned trough quickly progresses eastward, dragging a strong cold front along with it. Most guidance remains in agreement with the front dropping along the FL peninsula early next week, and crossing South Florida near the middle of the week.

At this time, some differences still remain between models ensembles from the three major suites (GEFS, ECMWF, GEPS), and mainly show slight variations in intensity and speed for the parent trough and surface low. The ECMWF members generally continue to favor a stronger system, the GFS weakens it somewhat, and both continue to slow it down a little compared to previous model runs. It's important to note that the weaker solutions are also the warmer solutions, but the overall number of ensemble members that support that possibility at this time remains on the lower end. All things considered, the bulk of the solutions continue to favor a slower, strong system, and thus a slower, cooler frontal approach. The NBM continues to depicts that consensus fairly well, with the bulk of convection associated with the front (meager though it may be), occurring Tuesday into Wednesday, and the cool snap truly hitting mid-to-late week once the front pushes south, and high pressure starts to build over the area, advecting cool, dry air over the region.

Temperatures remain warm ahead of the front, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s through Tuesday, and lows in the mid 50s and lower 60s. Behind the front, highs will struggle to rise above the low 70s, and lows will dip to the low 50s along the East Coast, and 40s over the interior and SW FL. Portions of Glades and Hendry could also see temperatures dropping below 40F, but as previously discussed, there remains some uncertainty regarding this solution at this time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

VFR through the period, with light northerly winds through late morning. Sea breezes will develop along both coastlines near noon. Patchy fog could also develop early this morning, but coverage is forecast to remain well inland of TAF sites.

MARINE

Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Light to moderate northerly winds will prevail into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure remains in place over the Gulf. A few isolated showers will remain possible across the local Atlantic waters today. Seas should remain below 3 ft. Winds and seas will both build early next week with as a cold front approaches the region.

BEACHES

Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

The Palm Beaches will experience a moderate risk of rip currents this weekend as swell increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 63 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 82 58 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 82 62 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 81 61 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 80 63 79 64 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 63 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 82 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 80 61 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 81 61 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 78 59 80 61 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.