textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to focus mostly in SW Florida again today and tomorrow.

- Heat indices expected in the low to mid 100s each day through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

It is looking like another late start to convection for this afternoon, similar to what we saw yesterday over southwest Florida. The upper level ridge axis over the Gulf will begin to shift west today and flatten a bit as a shortwave trough crosses over the Ohio River valley. Shortwave energy from this feature looks to extend down to the Florida peninsula and provide some slightly better ascent aloft. Current satellite imagery also indicates that there is better moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, which has led to a large swath of messy high clouds extending across the eastern Gulf and over most of Florida. This cloud cover and light sprinkles will likely inhibit diurnal heating and in turn delay the start of convection for this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery is showing more robust cumulus development over areas in the far southern Everglades where there is less upper level cloud cover. Low level lapse rates will be highest in these areas under direct sunlight and will likely be the first areas to see some shower development. But overall, things have been heating up slower than expected and recent ACARS sounding from KMIA and KFMY still depict a pretty decent dry layer between 850 and 500 mb. This means that convection will struggle to take off and remain pretty weak and low topped. Once again, stronger easterly flow will keep the focus for storm development along the Gulf breeze in southwest Florida. Shouldn't see anything out of the ordinary for June, with the main threats being gusty winds, locally heavy downpours, and lightning through the evening period. Some better moisture today (1.6" to 1.8" PWAT) could lead to some greater coverage of showers and slightly higher amounts of rainfall than what we saw yesterday (1.5" to 2.5").

Winds will become more light and variable overnight and upper level cloud cover looks to diminish over the course of the day tomorrow. Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the wind regime through the middle of the week, with breezy easterlies once again expected to develop during the afternoon. Moisture will continue to increase over the next couple of days, which will lead to a rise in coverage and chances of precipitation. Storms will develop along the sea-breeze convergence over interior and southwest Florida. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s for eastern areas and in the lower 100s for southwest locations.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Not much change to the forecast through the end of this week as a large scale ridge pattern will begin to weaken, but will hold firm likely through Friday before we begin to see a pattern change. Through Friday, expect diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms to form across the region with the brunt of this focusing in Southwest Florida and the interior given the easterly flow regime around the surface high pressure. Heading into the weekend, guidance continues to hint an area of low pressure forming in the Caribbean potentially in the form of a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), but this low pressure forming still remains uncertain given discontinuity among guidance. At minimum, it is expected based on the latest ensembles that winds will begin to veer more southerly this weekend after the ridge breaks down. In return, this will create a setup favoring fairly equal rain chances each day for the weekend and into next week across the entire region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently forecast for the weekend and into next week with PoPs at 60-80%. High temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the entire region each day through this weekend and into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions and breezy ENE winds will continue for the majority of South Florida. Some light and spotty showers may briefly impact eastern terminals through the afternoon. At KAPF, the Gulf breeze is expected to shift winds from the west and a few showers and storms may create MVFR conditions during the early evening. Winds become light and variable overnight before picking up during the morning hours tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue across the local waters through mid-week, with winds becoming westerly to west- southwest in the afternoon for the nearshore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Shower and thunderstorm development will be more isolated for the Atlantic waters today with extra scattered showers and storms likely across the Gulf waters. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less for all local waters over the next few days, although brief periods of increased winds and seas are possible with any thunderstorm activity.

BEACHES

Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

There is a moderate risk for rip currents across portions of the Atlantic beaches over the next few days, primarily for the Palm beaches and Broward beaches. This will likely be maintained into the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 89 77 89 / 10 20 10 40 West Kendall 76 90 75 90 / 10 30 10 40 Opa-Locka 77 90 77 91 / 10 20 10 40 Homestead 78 89 78 89 / 10 20 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 88 78 88 / 20 20 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 78 87 78 88 / 20 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 79 91 79 92 / 10 20 10 30 West Palm Beach 78 88 78 89 / 30 20 0 30 Boca Raton 79 88 79 88 / 20 20 0 30 Naples 76 91 76 90 / 30 50 50 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.