textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 - Scattered showers continue today favoring east coast metro areas.

- A strong cold front moves across the peninsula on Thursday, bringing increased rain chances in the morning hours and much colder temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning. - Marine hazardous conditions will return to the coastal waters from Thursday morning through Friday morning behind a cold front passage

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Ensembles guidance, along with global solutions, describe a rather progressive synoptic pattern through Thursday, with a deepening mid/upper lvl trough stretching across the entire Atlantic coastline, pushing the 540/dam into central Florida by Thursday afternoon. At the sfc, an associated frontal boundary is expected to reach the area during the Thursday morning time frame with rain chances increasing and spreading across all of SoFlo.

Today will see a similar weather pattern as the previous day with prevailing westerly flow keeping 30-40 POPs focused over the east coast metro areas in the afternoon and early evening hours. Slightly steeper lapse rates may combine with daytime heating for an isolated thunderstorms or two to develop, again favoring east coast locations. Then later tonight shower coverage will begin increasing north-to-south with the anticipated FROPA.

Thursday early/mid morning seems to be the window for the highest chances of rain with scattered to numerous showers possible (50-70 POps area-wide). Model PWATs show values around 1.5", along with HREF-QPF max around 1". Lifting/dynamic support remains poor as the parent trough/low complex will be pulling NE into the eastern seaboard. But latest guidance suggest a limited pool of instability over the southern-most areas of the CWA for a few thunderstorms to develop, mainly over the southern Atlantic waters and around central/eastern Miami-Dade.

High temperatures remain in the mid-upper 70s across much of SoFlo, with coastal areas hitting low 80s. Then temperatures cool down several degrees with increasing shower coverage with a frontal passage on Thursday, keeping afternoon temps in the upper 60s inland, and low-mid 70s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Long term consensus show synoptic flow over SoFlo veering northward Thursday night into Friday as strong high pressure descend upon much of the SE CONUS in the wake of a trough. A significantly colder/drier airmass will follow and trigger another cold air advection event into the state.

Coldest temperatures across SoFLo are still expected Friday morning before sunrise, with coastal areas dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and interior/northern areas in the low-mid 30s. Glades and Hendry may even drop to 30-31 degrees, for which protective actions against cold weather impacts will likely be necessary. Ensure to wear warm clothing not only for the cold air temperatures, but also for the wind chill values, which could drop into the mid 20s around the Lake region, and low-mid 30s elsewhere. Thus, conditons may require a Cold Weather Advisory Friday morning if these trends remain consistent in upcoming guidance. Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s. Temperatures then gradually warm up on Saturday, but still remaining around the low-mid 70s. Then on Sunday, models seem to suggest the onset of another cool down with yet another front approaching the area. Uncertainty in long range guidance has decreased and confidence has increased regarding having a dry FROPA for the late Sunday/Monday morning timeframe. Lows may again drop into the 30s and 40s, and Monday afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Winds increase out of the SW after 15-16Z, likely shifting to the WNW late today. Some isolated to scattered SHRA is likely to continue, mainly for east coast areas. For late tonight into tomorrow, CIGs are expected to fall as a front approaches. Have hinted at this for now after 09Z Thursday, but this is likely to be changed as confidence increases in cloud deck height.

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Winds will gradually shift to the SW today over the Atlantic waters and increasing to around 15 kt. Over the Gulf, winds will veer further to the NW by the afternoon hours. Scattered shower activity will also continue through this late this afternoon, especially over the Atlantic waters. Showers and even potential for isolated thunderstorms will increase in the overnight to Thursday morning time period with the arrival of a cold front. Hazardous conditions are expected behind the front Thursday late morning and through Friday morning.

BEACHES

Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents remain in place for all the beaches of Palm Beach county today. By Thursday afternoon the risk may increase across much of the Atlantic beaches as winds increase behind a frontal passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 63 75 44 / 40 10 50 0 West Kendall 81 60 75 39 / 30 10 50 0 Opa-Locka 80 63 74 43 / 40 10 50 0 Homestead 82 63 76 43 / 40 10 50 0 Fort Lauderdale 79 62 73 44 / 50 10 50 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 63 73 44 / 50 10 50 0 Pembroke Pines 80 61 74 42 / 40 10 50 0 West Palm Beach 80 60 72 41 / 40 20 50 0 Boca Raton 80 61 74 42 / 50 20 50 0 Naples 75 63 70 40 / 20 60 80 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ066-067- 069>074.

AM...None. GM...None.