textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 223 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Cloudy conditions with fewer storms expected today.

- Wednesday and Thursday to be the wettest days.

- Early week heat indices in the low 100s.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The main synoptic features across the CONUS this morning are the broad eastern CONUS trough with its core over the Northeast, a low amplitude ridge over the Lower MS Valley and Southern plains, and a closed low over the Northwest/Northern Plains. Also worth mentioning is the large mid-level shortwave over southern Mexico that fractured from a ribbon of +PV across the central CONUS and Gulf late last week. It has been forcing convection across the Yucatan and Central America for several days and steadily pumping mid/upper level moisture through the south-central Gulf. The moisture has then been advecting eastward through south and central Florida around a mid-level ridge axis nosing into the SE Gulf. There have been breaks between the most saturated airmasses (likely due to the diurnal convective cycle), but it looks like another saturated column is set to pass overhead today. What makes this forecast challenging is that the minority of a superensemble of CAM and global guidance forecast the thick cloud cover and periodic showers (like on Saturday), but that appears to be what is evolving upstream.

That said, I'm more inclined to forecast a low convective coverage today with thicker mid-level cloudiness. Even the guidance that favors this scenario has at least a storm or two developing late today, and tend to favor Miami-Dade county. It appears there may be a pocket of lower level dry air in this area that could allow for a bit more destabilization. The other area that may see a storm or two would be north across Palm Beach county, in the evening, when outflow from storms across central Florida may trigger convection.

The other implications of the more stable forecast would be highs closer to the upper 80s than the lower 90s. Either way, it's going to feel hot today with heat indices either near 100 or closer to 105 (in the less cloudy case).

Really no change in the features at play on Tuesday. If we can tap into some drier air then we'll likely see a bit more convective coverage and less cloudiness. Otherwise, it'll be another suppressed afternoon. For now, the forecast trends towards a bit more coverage of storms on Tuesday than today.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The extended range forecast continues to depend upon the northern stream shortwave that's forecast to drop through eastern Ontario today. The differences seem to revolve around how much it interacts with the western CONUS shortwave and how far away from the core of the northern stream trough it gets pulled. Solutions that keep them separated, deepen the eastern CONUS low and have a more progressive surface low forming early to mid-week. The solutions that tangle the two features has a slower solution with a cutoff component to the eastern CONUS trough and western Atlantic cyclogenesis mid to late week. It's roughly a 70/30 split with the slower solution winning out at this point. At this time the global deterministic models all favor this as well. So, for now the forecast will reflect the slower progression which gives us the wettest days on Wednesday and Thursday, has a relatively dry day on Friday, and then brings seasonable rain chances under easterly flow back into the picture next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR will prevail away from storms for all terminals through the TAF. Winds will generally be westerly except for a short period of SSE along the east coast when the seabreeze pushes inland. The convective forecast is tough again today. Coverage will generally be low due to mid-level clouds, but consensus/persistence favors Miami-Dade and Palm Beach coasts for late day convection. Have included VCTS for those terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Gentle to moderate westerly winds will prevail today and turn northwesterly by Tuesday. A small northerly swell will work down the east coast late today into tomorrow in the wake of an area of low pressure forming in the western Atlantic. A front will move through the state Wednesday through Thursday and bring an increase in the winds and also a more significant swell across the Atlantic waters. Advisory level seas are possible by late week. Scattered showers and storms are expected today and tomorrow across Atlantic waters and will be more widespread across Gulf and Atlantic waters Wednesday through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 77 90 76 / 70 10 60 50 West Kendall 91 75 92 74 / 60 10 60 50 Opa-Locka 92 77 91 76 / 70 10 70 50 Homestead 90 77 91 76 / 70 10 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 90 78 89 77 / 60 20 60 50 N Ft Lauderdale 90 77 88 76 / 60 20 60 50 Pembroke Pines 93 78 92 77 / 70 10 60 50 West Palm Beach 91 78 89 76 / 50 20 50 60 Boca Raton 91 78 89 77 / 60 20 50 50 Naples 90 80 90 78 / 10 10 20 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.