textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters heading into the upcoming weekend.

- A high risk of rip currents remains in place for the Collier County beaches through this evening.

- Low relative humidity values could result in enhanced fire behavior this afternoon and once again on Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

The previous forecast looks to remain on track as high pressure continues to build in from the northwest. Winds will gradually become more westerly heading into the late afternoon and evening hours before shifting back to a northwesterly direction overnight into Saturday morning. While cold air advection will continue to keep things on the chilly side once again tonight, low temperatures will not be as cold as they were last night and early this morning. Low temperatures tonight will generally drop into the mid 40s across the Lake Okeechobee region while lower 50s will be common across the rest of South Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 233 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

The robust synoptic scale trough is beginning to advect offshore and further away from the vicinity this morning, but South Florida will still remain under its influence as cold air advection continues to occur with low-level flow remaining out of the north-northwest today. The local air mass will be exceptionally dry as dew points across the region will likely not reach 40 degrees for most areas today and still not reach 50 degrees on Saturday even as the air mass begins to moderate. As a result of this, low temperatures this morning will be well below average with ambient temperatures of 35- 40 degrees for most areas. Only exceptions to this will be the east coast metro and other locations immediately along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Winds will be decreasing this morning, but remain breezy enough to make wind chill temperatures (apparent temps) feel like the low to mid 30s across inland South Florida. Even coastal areas are expected to see wind chill temperatures in the upper 30s. Due to these wind chill temperatures to be felt for several hours, the previously issued Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning until 9AM for inland areas and the entirety of Glades and Hendry counties. Additionally, the furthest western portions of Palm Beach county will be in a similar boat with Glades/Hendry as wind chills fall into the low 30s in that area. Additionally, patchy frost is possible around Glades and Hendry counties this morning as winds begin to decouple in the wake of the front.

Once temperatures begin to warm up late this morning and the rest of the day, the mid-to-upper level ridge currently over the Tex/Mex region will start to stretch and shift more over the Florida Peninsula Friday night and Saturday. As this occurs, temperatures will not be able to fall as drastically due to subsidence warming from the high pressure. This will create a dry and tranquil period Friday night through Saturday with no headlines needed. Low temperatures Friday night are expected in the mid to upper 40s for interior and Southwest Florida while the east coast only falls into the low 50s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 233 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Surface high pressure and a strengthening ridge pattern over the Gulf and southeast U.S. will continue to take shape for the second half of the weekend as the ridge eventually settles completely over the Florida Peninsula by early next week. Ahead of this ridge shift will be a weak backdoor cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning, which will cause temperatures to once again fall much below average. However, at the moment this boundary is not expected to be very strong, so temperatures and potential wind chill temperatures should avoid becoming low enough to need cold weather hazards being issued.

Other than that, the ridge pattern and dry air mass are expected to hold steady through the rest of the long term period and create a lengthy period of quiet weather. Daytime highs will continue to rebound each day through early next week under the high pressure pattern, eventually rising back to the upper 70s low 80s across the region. Overnight lows will still remain a bit chilly, especially over inland areas and around the lake.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. NW winds will gradually become more westerly as the afternoon progresses. These winds could gust up to 20 kts throughout the afternoon as well. Winds will gradually diminish across all terminals this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 233 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Hazardous winds and seas will continue across the local waters through this morning before starting to taper off for the Gulf waters heading into the afternoon hours today. Winds will begin to decrease from their peak speeds in the Atlantic as today goes on, but a fresh to strong breeze and elevated seas will continue through Saturday in the Atlantic. After this morning, seas fall to 3-5 feet in the Gulf but remain 6-8 feet in the Atlantic into the weekend. Conditions should improve in the Atlantic waters by early next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 233 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Increased onshore flow in the wake of a cold front will keep a high risk for rip currents in place for the Collier beaches through today. For the Atlantic coast beaches, even with offshore flow in place the rip risk will remain moderate due to a lingering swell.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 614 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

A dry airmass has settled into place across South Florida, with forecast relative humidity values in the 30-40% range this afternoon. While transport and 20ft winds are forecast to remain light, the combination of such a dry airmass in place with dry vegetation could set the stage for elevated fire behavior across portions of South Florida this afternoon. With a reinforcing push of dry air into the region tomorrow, relative humidity values will fall slightly further, dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s across most inland areas during the afternoon hours. The combination of breezy northwesterly winds, low relative humidity, and drying fuels could set the stage for enhanced fire behavior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 52 75 54 71 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 47 76 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 51 76 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 50 76 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 51 74 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 52 74 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 50 76 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 50 73 54 70 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 50 73 55 71 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 55 72 47 72 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.