textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 222 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026 - A high risk of rip currents will continue today for the Palm Beaches. - The next frontal boundary will approach and push into the region over the weekend increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Windy conditions are also anticipated across South Florida on Sunday.

- Hazardous marine conditions will be possible especially across the Atlantic waters towards the second half of the weekend and into early next week as winds and seas build.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Strong mid level ridging centered over the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains continues to sprawl eastward across the Gulf and through the Florida Peninsula today and tonight. The eastern side of this ridge will get somewhat flattened and pushed back over the Gulf as a mid level shortwave trough passes by well off to the north tonight and then into the western Atlantic on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure holds strong over South Florida today and tonight, however, an approaching backdoor cold front will weaken the high and push it southeastward on Saturday. This will allow for a light to moderate easterly synoptic wind flow to remain in place today. As the backdoor frontal boundary approaches the region from the northeast on Saturday, winds will gradually increase especially later in the day as the pressure gradient tightens.

While mid level ridging will help to provide subsidence across the mid to upper levels today, there will be some lower level moisture advection taking place across the region as PWATs slowly begin to rise and range from 1.1 to 1.3 inches as the day progresses. This may be just enough of a moisture increase to support isolated showers across portions of the east coast this morning, and then more scattered shower activity over the interior and Southwest Florida this afternoon as the sea breezes push inland. Thunderstorm chances will remain very limited as shower activity will remain low topped, however, some brief heavy downpours cannot be ruled out with the stronger showers. While most of the shower activity will gradually diminish tonight, chances of showers will gradually increase heading into Saturday afternoon as the backdoor frontal boundary pushes closer to the region. As instability increases across the area due to peak diurnal heating, some thunderstorm development will be possible during this time frame, however, strong thunderstorm development will remain rather limited. High temperatures on both Friday and Saturday will rise into the lower 80s along the east coast, however, temperatures will be much warmer across the interior and Southwest Florida with mid to upper 80s anticipated.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The aforementioned frontal boundary will be pushed into South Florida Saturday night into Sunday as a strong and elongated surface high to the north pushes off of the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern coast. This period of time will be when the best chances of showers will occur across the region, however, due to the strength of the high to the north, the pressure gradient across South Florida will rapidly tighten especially heading into Sunday. This will strengthen the east northeasterly winds during this time frame allowing for windy and gusty conditions to develop later on Saturday night into Sunday. The strongest winds will be found along the immediate east coast, where winds could range between 25 to 30 mph, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible as the front pushes through Sunday. With plenty of moisture in place as well, conditions will be favorable for coastal convergence to take place along the east coast, which could help to enhance rainfall rates and amounts heading into Sunday. While the exact details still need to be ironed out, multiple rounds of heavy downpours could create the potential for localized flooding over portions of the east coast heading into Sunday. While thunderstorm chances will remain low due to the best dynamics and instability remaining well away from the region, a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out on Saturday night into Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will generally range from the upper 70s across the east coast and the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower to mid 80s across Southwest Florida.

During the early portion of next week, mid level ridging will gradually build back over the region while surface high pressure centered off to the northeast pushes into South Florida during this time frame. The weakening backdoor frontal boundary will be rather slow to move out of the area on Monday keeping lingering moisture in place especially across the lower levels. This will keep a chance of showers in place area wide during this time frame. With ridging building in aloft, this will keep shower activity low topped, and thunderstorm chances rather limited. The pressure gradient across South Florida will still remain tight especially on Monday which will result in breezy and gusty east northeasterly winds continuing throughout the day. High temperatures on Monday will generally rise to around 80 along the east coast, and into the lower 80s across Southwest Florida.

The frontal boundary will gradually get pushed south of the region heading into Tuesday and Wednesday allowing for high pressure to fully build back in from the northeast. Due to the strength of this surface high centered in the western Atlantic, the pressure gradient across South Florida will still remain rather tight allowing for the breezy and gusty conditions to continue through the middle of the week. With just enough lower level moisture in place, some isolated to scattered low topped showers cannot be ruled out along the breeze during this time frame. High temperatures heading into Tuesday and Wednesday will be on a slow moderating trend with lower 80s anticipated along the east coast and mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Generally light winds this morning will increase out of the east after 16z to around 10 kts across the east coast terminals. Isolated showers will be possible near the east coast terminals this morning. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WSW after 18z as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the local waters today. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters where winds will shift and become west northwest this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 2 to 4 feet today while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Winds will start to increase as Saturday progresses with a moderate to fresh east northeasterly wind flow developing across the Atlantic during the afternoon hours. Hazardous marine conditions remain likely especially across the Atlantic waters heading into Saturday night and Sunday as a strong east northeasterly breeze develops and seas build.

BEACHES

Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today while a moderate risk of rip currents remains in place across the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches. The rip current risk will increase across all Atlantic Coast beaches heading into the second half of the weekend as strong onshore flow develops and a northeasterly swell builds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 68 84 70 / 20 0 20 40 West Kendall 84 63 86 67 / 10 0 20 30 Opa-Locka 84 67 85 69 / 20 0 20 40 Homestead 83 67 84 70 / 10 0 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 81 68 82 70 / 20 0 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 81 68 83 70 / 20 0 20 60 Pembroke Pines 85 68 86 70 / 20 0 20 50 West Palm Beach 82 67 84 69 / 10 0 30 70 Boca Raton 81 68 83 69 / 20 0 20 60 Naples 85 67 85 67 / 20 20 30 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.