textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 650 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon over interior and Southwest Florida.

- Persistent easterly winds will maintain a High Risk of Rip Currents into the weekend.

- Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the eastern half of South Florida and western Collier County today.

UPDATE

Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

The forecast remains on track as the advertised dry air has moved over the region. Satellite imagery and ACARS data show a nice layer of dry air overspreading the CWA, with PWATs down to the 1.3-1.4 inch range (below the 10th percentile of climatology). High-res models still support the development of showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf Breeze boundary after 3PM, with heavy rain and frequent lightning possible across southwest Florida. Given the lack of cloud cover and rain across the East Coast, we could see the high temperatures peaking in 92-93F range, with heat indices hovering in the 104-107F range along the entire coastal metro area.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Deep-layered high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic, while a disturbance north of South Florida continues to lift away from the region. Guidance suggests drier air will filter into South Florida today, keeping PWATs slightly below climatological norms and suppressing PoPs across the East Coast metro areas. However, sufficient low-level moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along sea breezes pushing inland this afternoon. A moderate southeasterly steering flow will push the primary focus of convection further west, with the highest PoPs (40-50%) centered around Southwest Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region.

As the surface high pressure ridge axis shifts southwestward toward the Florida peninsula on Sunday, winds will gradually relax into a lighter easterly regime. PWATs are expected to recover back to climatological norms, giving way to a more typical summertime sea- breeze pattern. Expect isolated to scattered showers along the East Coast during the morning hours, before boundary collisions and diurnal heating shift the highest convective coverage inland and toward the Gulf Coast by the afternoon.

Highs will reach the low to mid-90s today and Sunday. Peak heat index values could reach 105-110 F, but duration is expected to fall short of advisory criteria. Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the eastern half of South Florida and western Collier County.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A typical sea-breeze-driven convective pattern is expected to persist through next week. Under prevailing easterly flow, early morning showers remain possible over the Atlantic waters and coastal areas each day, giving way to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the interior and Southwest Florida.

Guidance continues to indicate a plume of Saharan dust will be approaching South Florida toward the middle of the work week. This influx of drier could potentially suppress overall convective coverage through Friday. Heat will remain the primary forecast concern through next week, with maximum temperatures hovering in the mid-90s and peak heat indices ranging between 100-105 F for much of the region, except along the immediate Atlantic coast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Early in the period, scattered TSRA along the Gulf Coast could result in sub-VFR conditions for KAPF. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions will prevail for all sites, with light east-southeast winds in place overnight. Tomorrow, winds increase out of the east-southeast up to 10-15 kts. A few isolated showers could move across the East Coast early morning, with storms possible in the vicinity of KAPF come evening.

MARINE

Issued at 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds will persist across the local coastal waters through the next few days. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may result in locally gusty winds and brief periods of rough seas. Outside of convection, seas will generally remain 2 to 3 feet through early next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in effect for Palm Beach and Broward beaches through the end the day. The rip current risk should gradually decrease into early next week as winds relax across local waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 91 82 92 / 20 20 10 20 West Kendall 79 92 80 92 / 20 20 10 20 Opa-Locka 81 93 82 93 / 20 20 10 20 Homestead 81 92 80 92 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 82 91 82 91 / 20 20 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 81 91 81 91 / 20 20 10 20 Pembroke Pines 82 91 81 92 / 20 20 10 20 West Palm Beach 80 91 80 92 / 20 20 10 20 Boca Raton 81 90 81 90 / 20 20 10 20 Naples 77 92 77 93 / 20 70 20 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...None. GM...None.