textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 731 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. A few thunderstorms may contain strong wind gusts. Locally heavy rain may result in isolated instances of urban flooding across the east coast metro.

- Hot and humid weather continues today, with heat indices around 100 this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Unsettled couple days ahead for South FL as an upper level short wave from the southern plains exits into the Gulf and a frontal boundary will slide down the state stalling over the lake region before eventually dissipating by late Wednesday. Convection will likely take its time getting going today, but by mid to late afternoon scattered thunderstorms are expected, favoring the interior and lake region and then drifting towards the east coast metro by early evening. Tall, skinny buoyancy profiles will support several strong storms, with an isolated severe wind gust not out of the question. Deep moisture is expected with PWAT values of 1.8-2 inches. Given the deep moisture and expected weak steering flows, some localized urban flooding is possible across the east coast metro. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Convection will slowly wane this evening with full clearing not likely until well after dark this evening. Overnight low temps will range from the upper 60s over inland SW FL and the lake region, to mid and upper 70s closer to the coast.

With the short wave over the region on Wednesday and the frontal boundary still lingering across the lake region, Wednesday will be another day of above normal convection coverage, with storms developing from mid afternoon through early evening. High temps on Wednesday will again be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

An overall drier pattern is expected for the end of the week into the weekend as the shortwave moves off to the east and upper level ridging builds into the region. There will still be chances of convection each day that will mainly be diurnally driven sea-breeze convection.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the metro areas, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows will be in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 731 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours. Light and variable winds will increase out of the SE after 16z and will range between 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will develop across the east coast terminals later this afternoon and could bring periods of MVFR and IFR conditions along with gusty and erratic winds. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW to around 10 kts after 16z.

MARINE

Issued at 101 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the area waters the next several days, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate SE winds expected in the Atlantic today with W to NW winds in the Gulf. Seas today 2 ft or less in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. A brief northerly swell is expected in the northern Atlantic waters late Wednesday into early Thursday which may elevate seas to near advisory criteria.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 76 90 75 / 40 50 40 10 West Kendall 91 73 91 72 / 50 40 40 10 Opa-Locka 91 75 90 74 / 50 50 40 10 Homestead 90 75 90 74 / 30 40 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 88 77 88 75 / 50 60 40 10 N Ft Lauderdale 88 75 88 74 / 60 60 50 10 Pembroke Pines 93 77 92 75 / 50 60 40 10 West Palm Beach 88 75 88 73 / 70 70 60 20 Boca Raton 88 76 87 75 / 60 70 60 10 Naples 90 75 88 75 / 20 20 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.