textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 649 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms today will focus mainly across Southeast Florida. - Heavy rainfall today in Southeast Florida could lead to pockets of localized flooding across urban and poor drainage areas along the east coast.

- Strong winds with the incoming frontal boundary is expected to lead to increasingly hazardous marine and beach conditions, with elevated seas and near Gale force wind gusts beginning tonight and into early this coming week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Latest WPC and model sfc analyses place a frontal boundary around C FL, with GFS/EURO and ensembles showing fair agreement with a FROPA across SoFlo through tonight. The front is expected to reach the Fl Keys by Sunday morning.

NBM keeps widespread max POPs for the rest of today and tonight in the 70-80% range, with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms possible at any time during that time frame. Latest high-res and LPMM guidance continues to focus on the east coast metro areas for best chances of isolated +6" of rain, which will be exacerbated by the weak steering flow prevailing ahead of the FROPA. Because of this, WPC has placed all the SoFlo Atlantic metro areas under a slight risk of excesssive rainfall (level 2 of 4 / at least 15%), and a 1 in 10 chance of Flash Flooding with the heaviest downpours and slow moving storms. Main hazards for today and tonight will be frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and localized flood/flash flooding.

Another weather issue looming for the next few days will be increasing northerly wind speeds across the state, with gusty periods starting late tonight. This will result in coastal impacts over the east coast, including high surf conditions and high rip current risk (see the Marine and Beach discussions below).

Guidance remains consistent in pushing the front through SoFlo and stalling it over the Florida Keys by Sunday morning. A modest drying trend will follow, but still keeping enough lingering moisture for at least scattered showers and storms to develop Sunday, especially south of interstate 75.

Afternoon max temperatures today should remain in the low-mid 80s over the Lake region, and into the upper 80s elsewhere. Overnight lows should drop into the mid-upper 60s for the western half of SoFlo, and into the low-mid 70s across the East Coast. Cooler temperatures are expected Sunday, with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s across South Florida.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 434 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The frontal boundary remains projected to pass through the area by Sunday night while also degrading in the process. This boundary will eventually stall over the Florida Straits while diffusing completely early this coming week. With moisture levels dropping closer to average to below average in some areas, rain chances will lower significantly to below 20% for most of interior and SW Florida as drier air arrives in the wake of the front. Strong surface high pressure will re-develop as the low off the coast of the Carolinas begins to advect offshore and shift more towards the Mid-Atlantic on, which will create a stout pressure gradient that could last into the mid-week time frame. Breezy winds are expected out of the NE with wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible through Tuesday night and potentially a portion of Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the pressure gradient should be weakened enough for much less breezy conditions. Even with the breezy and gusty winds early this week, they should stay below Wind Advisory levels.

The other important aspect of the long term forecast period relates to any rain potential through the end of the week. While drier air filters in with the passing of the frontal boundary, strong northeasterly winds over the local waters will be present in combination with slower wind speeds over land, which can result in isolated to scattered frictional convergence showers forming along the coast. This process is likely to be the main driver in any rain shower or storm development through the end of the week, but is not expected to produce impactful rainfall or thunderstorms. Instead, most of the activity should be of the meager variety. We will continue to monitor trends in case a more impactful develops for heavy rainfall. High temperatures will fall to the low to mid 80s each day in the wake of the front. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 60s near the lake region to the low to mid 70s elsewhere on Monday night, then fall into the 60s across the entire region Tuesday night through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Northerly winds will continue to increase tonight in the wake of a frontal passage, reaching the 12-15 kts range with higher gusts after midnight, and veering to the NNE after 06Z. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through around 04Z, then scattered activity remains possible through the rest of tonight. Winds remain gusty through the rest of the TAF period with the Atlantic terminals possibly reaching gusts of 25-30kt at times.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Light westerly winds will continue to gradually shift northerly to moderate north-northeasterly by this evening as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across all local waters, with marine conditions quickly deteriorating overnight as winds strengthen behind the front.

Small Craft Advisories are now in place from this evening and continuing through the early part of next week. Strong winds, with gusts near gale force, are expected on Sunday, accompanied by building seas of 8-12 ft across the Atlantic waters. Scattered showers and isolated storms will also remain possible over the Atlantic waters on Sunday.

BEACHES

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

A High Risk of Rip Currents will be in effect from later tonight and at least through the middle of next week for all Atlantic beaches as strong northerly winds develop in the wake of a frontal passage. Also, a High Surf Advisory will be in effect for Palm Beach and portions of Broward beaches with northerly winds and swells bringing potential for surf heights in the 8-12 feet range in the early Monday to Wednesday timeframe.

Beachgoers are strongly advised to heed all safety instructions and posts at all Atlantic beaches during the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 75 82 75 84 / 80 60 40 20 West Kendall 74 82 74 84 / 80 60 40 10 Opa-Locka 74 82 75 85 / 80 60 30 20 Homestead 74 83 75 85 / 70 70 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 74 82 75 84 / 80 60 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 75 82 75 84 / 80 60 30 30 Pembroke Pines 73 82 74 84 / 80 60 30 20 West Palm Beach 73 82 74 84 / 70 50 10 20 Boca Raton 73 82 74 84 / 80 60 20 30 Naples 69 82 70 85 / 60 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 AM EDT Sunday through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ610-650-670.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-651-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.