textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

- High risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches will start developing today and spread southward during the next couple of days. Moderate risk of rip currents remains in place for the Gulf beaches today. - A warming trend continues through the rest of the work week with temperatures remaining around or above normals throughout most of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Few minor adjustments have been made to the near term forecast. Added some 10-14% PoPs along the east coast this afternoon and over SW FL early this evening. A few light coastal showers have been observed and latest hi-res guidance continues to show the possibility of some light showers over SW FL later in the day along the Gulf coast sea breeze. Also added in some patchy fog tonight over inland SW FL. Latest guidance is fairly bullish with fog development early Thursday morning as well, and that may extend into the Gulf waters. Put patchy fog in for right now but may get more aggressive with that over the next day if future model runs continue to show higher chances for dense fog. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend higher than normal through the end of the work week with mostly dry conditions expected.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

The overall synoptic scenario will be dominated by a large and deep- layered ridge sprawling across the region as high pressure remains centered around the Atlantic seaboard and the west Atlantic waters. Models flatten the ridge a little today, with SoFlo well inside the southern periphery of the high and its associated east-northeast flow. While winds will become moderate to brisk at times along the east coast, flow quickly decreases as it pushes further inland. This will result in a rather split temperature profile this afternoon, with the more robust easterly flow keeping the Atlantic side of the area a little cooler than the west side. But overall, expect a warming trend for the rest of the week with persisting subsidence and drier air aloft. Highs over the east half of SoFlo will range in the U70s to L80s, while west coast locations could reach the M-U80s. Very low POPs are still carried in the forecast for a few quick east coast showers possible with moisture advection from the Atlantic. But any shower that forms today will be shallow and brief.

For tonight and into Wednesday, the ridge drifts a little further east and veers winds to the SE/S through the afternoon hours. Winds over land will become light at times, with warmer air filtering into the peninsula from the south. Therefore, M-U80s could become more widespread across the area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 345 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Broad, deep-layered high pressure ridge will dominate the synoptic setup for the rest of the work week and into Saturday. With a relatively stable and dry airmass in place expect little to no measurable POPs, outside of maybe a brief coastal shower later in the week. The lack of rain combined with decreasing cloud cover will allow for afternoon highs to climb into the mid-upper 80s through much of the forecast period. Even some 90s may be possible by Friday and Saturday afternoon.

The next potential rainmaker may approach the area on Sunday with another cold front passage, with model confidence now increasing about having another event of cooling temps for the late Sunday-Monday timeframe.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Light E/SE winds overnight with mainly VFR conditions expected. SE winds around 10 kts after 16Z on Wednesday with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze expected at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 345 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Moderate to fresh easterly winds continue today across most of the local waters, strongest over the Atlantic marine zones. Only exception will west-northwest flow over the Gulf coastal waters with sea breezes this afternoon. Isolated showers will remain possible across the Atlantic waters during this time frame.

Seas across the Atlantic waters today will range from 4 to 6 feet while seas across the Gulf will remain at 2 to 3 feet.

BEACHES

Issued at 345 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

High risk of rip currents will begin developing today starting at the Palm beaches and spreading southward during the next couple of days. Moderate risk remains in place for the Gulf beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 68 80 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 62 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 66 81 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 67 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 68 79 65 82 / 10 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 68 79 65 82 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 67 82 65 85 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 65 80 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 66 79 65 82 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 62 80 63 80 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ172.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ173.

AM...None. GM...None.