textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Quiet weather continues across South Florida through the next couple of days.

- A frontal boundary is expected lake weekend into early next week which will bring the next chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 315 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

A beautiful day across the region with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. A persistent layer of marine fog persists across the Gulf waters. This will be slow to dissipate, however it should slowly continue to dissipate over the next few hours into the evening hours. Other than this, nothing significant to mention and no significant changes to the forecast with this update.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Patchy fog, dense in spots, has developed early this morning across areas of southwest and the interior. This prompted the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory for Collier county, and could necessitate the potential extension to Glades and Hendry as the night progresses. Conditions are forecast to continue to deteriorate as the morning hours pass, with medium to high chances of fog reaching the westernmost portions of the East Coast metro around sunrise. Commuters across South Florida are encouraged to exercise caution while on the roads and leave plenty of space between cars as they drive.

Surface analysis early this morning shows a weak stationary boundary draped over central Florida and a weak meso low off the coast of the Florida peninsula. This boundary is forecast to weaken as the day progresses, fizzling out sometime overnight as surface high begins to build in along the Eastern Seaboard. This synoptic evolution will help maintain light northerly to northeasterly winds today, becoming more northeasterly to easterly on Saturday as surface high builds in. Model guidance is not too enthused about shower potential today, although low-level moisture has been gradually trending upward overnight; a few stray showers could materialize, but chances remain very low.

Temperatures through the period will continue to gradually warm up, with highs each afternoon in the high 70s and lower 80s, while overnight lows could dip into the mid 50s across the interior and lower 60s along the East Coast.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

A much deeper synoptic scale trough will develop and strengthen in the lee of the Rockies,sweeping into the Eastern Seaboard sometime Sunday-Monday. This complex will drag another front across the Florida peninsula with it. This will provide more of a large scale forcing mechanism to promote rainfall across much of the region. Some of the model guidance remains in disagreement regarding the timing of this solution, with the ENS (ensemble ECMWF) presenting a more progressive approach, while the GEFS (ensemble GFS) maintains a slower evolution. The forecast reflects a middle ground of both, leaning ever so slightly more into the ENS solution, with the front reaching our area late Sunday into Monday and light to moderate rainfall persisting through the day. It's worth noting that the PoPs have gradually trended upward with each forecast cycle over the last couple of nights, which is helping increase our confidence regarding this scenario.

Behind the front, surface high will build over the Eastern Seaboard and the Florida peninsula, maintaining benign conditions through the rest of the week.

Daily high temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s to low 80s across the region each day. Similarly, overnight lows each night will stabilize to being in the 50s across SW Florida and low 60s for the east coast metro.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Reduced ceilings will be possible at MIA and TMB early Saturday morning between 08Z-13Z where the highest chances of IFR or even LIFR conditions will occur. APF may also experience a brief period of reduced ceilings as sea fog advects southward through the early morning. Outside of the early morning hours, ceilings should rapidly improve within a couple hours of sunrise with VFR prevailing the majority of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Generally light to moderate winds will prevail today, becoming more northeasterly to easterly on Saturday. Seas will remain benign, ranging from 2-4 ft across the local Atlantic waters, and 2 ft or less across the Gulf.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 63 78 67 78 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 58 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 62 80 65 80 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 61 79 66 79 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 63 77 67 77 / 0 0 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 63 77 67 78 / 0 0 10 20 Pembroke Pines 62 80 66 80 / 0 0 10 20 West Palm Beach 62 77 66 79 / 0 0 10 20 Boca Raton 62 77 66 79 / 0 0 10 20 Naples 58 79 61 78 / 0 0 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.