textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 657 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Major coastal flooding is expected during high tide today, with moderate flooding into the end of this week. Inundated roadways are expected for coastal areas.

- Marine and beach conditions will remain hazardous today, but improving conditions are expected for the end of this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

South Florida will remain on the periphery of a mid-level low centered near the Bahamas that will begin to weaken and advect northeastwards away from the area for the end of this week. A nearby surface low is also analyzed early this morning that can provide some extra forcing for ascent in the low-levels, but any convection today will be capped as lapse rates are weak and mid-level temps are several degrees above normal (500mb temps at -3 to -4 deg C). In addition, an abundance of dry air is present on the latest ACARS soundings and model soundings, which combined with a rebuilding ridge heading into Thursday will further cap convective and lightning potential. With the ridge amplifying and the low offshore beginning to advect northeastward, the channel of strongest winds will shift north of the South Florida forecast area and thus much less windy conditions are expected through the period, but they are likely to still be on the breezier side for today.

Overall, while some shallow isolated to scattered shower activity along with very low-end chances for a thunderstorm or two. Thunderstorms are unlikely with this atmospheric profile, but can never rule out a single more robust updraft occurring that allows for deep enough convection to spark a pulse storm. Regardless, from a general weather perspective both today and tomorrow, concerns are limited with no major hazards expected. High temperatures will rise a few degrees as high pressure builds and more sunshine is possible, so temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

This forecast features no tricks, but honestly, not too much in the form of treats either as Halloween in South Florida is forecast to be close to normal for this time of year. Warm daytime temperatures will drop into the upper 70s to low 80s during the evening hours, with a 30-50% chance of coastal showers along the east coast of South Florida and a light but not spooky easterly breeze. But before I haunt you any further with my forecast, let's rewind back to the beginning of the extended period.

The atmospheric reign of the cut-off low that has resided to our east over the northwestern Bahamas and western Atlantic waters over the last several days will finally conclude. While zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the southeastern United States, a developing mid-level ridge across the southern Gulf will slide eastward during the second half of the week, resulting in increasing geopotential heights, 500mb temperatures above the 90-95th percentile, and a reduction in 500mb wind speeds out of the northwest. At the surface, the weak area of surface low vorticity is forecast continue to meander westward across the region, increasingly decoupled from the departing cut-off low. An associated frontal boundary, increasingly diffuse and meager in nature, will also retrograde across the region during the second half of the week. While this boundary will gradually degrade, the envelope of deeper atmospheric moisture will remain across the region with precipitable water values in the 80th-90th percentile forecast to remain draped across the region. The pressure gradient that has kept a persistent breeze across the region will finally abate with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across most of South Florida, with even some low 90s possible across inland southwestern Florida through the upcoming weekend. While winds will continue to lessen across the region, there will be enough of an easterly wind component to create a minor temperature gradient across the region with the warmest overnight temperatures forecast along the east coast and warmest daytime temperatures across inland southwestern Florida as oceanic influences keep temperatures warmer overnight but cooler during the day. Warm 500mb temperatures and ridging aloft will keep convection fairly benign in nature through the first half of the weekend with convection mainly focusing across inland southwestern Florida on the confluence of a stronger Atlantic sea- breeze and weaker Gulf breeze.

Mid-level ridging across our region is forecast to erode during the second half of the weekend into early next week as a lobe of mid- level vorticity slides eastward across the southeastern United States in tandem with a developing surface low and frontal boundary. Ample warm air and moisture advection is forecast to occur mainly to the north of our region during this time frame, with the best atmospheric dynamics and ascent over the northern half of the Florida Peninsula and remainder of the southeastern United States. That being said, a cooling of 500mb temperatures and a more southerly component to surface winds could focus a higher chance of convection across inland South Florida on Sunday as moisture lifts northwards in the expansive warm sector of the system to our north. Beyond early next week, ensemble and deterministic guidance have a great variety of potential forecast solutions as the southern stream remains active across the southern United States. In the near term however, it looks like South Florida will have to wait longer for the treat of a substantial cold front and pumpkin spice conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 657 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings this morning. NE winds around 5 kts early this morning increasing slightly to 10-15 kts late morning through the afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight. Scattered showers possible throughout the day.

MARINE

Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Conditions begin to improve today, but lingering Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected into this evening and tonight before tapering off across the Gulf and Atlantic waters. Northeast winds at 20-25 kts in the Gulf and seas of 7-10 feet are expected in the Gulf and Atlantic respectively into tonight before falling off. Winds fall to moderate levels tomorrow while veering more easterly. Conditions for the end of the week will become more calm. Isolated to scattered shower activity remains likely as well at least for the next few days.

BEACHES

Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A high risk of rip currents will persist for all Atlantic beaches through today before tapering off for the Broward and Miami-Dade beaches this evening. However, a high risk for rip currents will continue through at least Thursday for the Palm Beaches. Surfing conditions will also be improving today for the Palm Beaches, but waves of 7-8 feet will still be possible through today which keeps the High Surf Advisory in effect until tonight.

Furthermore, onshore wind flow and high seas combined with King Tides will result in another day of increased coastal flooding risk along the Atlantic coast. The tides could still reach major flood stage again today, but then are expected to fall for the end of the week. However, moderate flooding is still expected during periods of high tide through at least Thursday or Friday, so a Coastal Flood Advisory will take over for when the Warning expires.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 86 76 86 75 / 30 10 30 10 West Kendall 87 75 87 75 / 20 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 87 75 87 75 / 30 10 30 10 Homestead 87 75 87 75 / 20 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 84 75 85 75 / 30 20 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 85 76 86 75 / 40 30 40 20 Pembroke Pines 87 75 87 74 / 30 20 30 10 West Palm Beach 84 75 85 74 / 40 30 30 20 Boca Raton 85 75 85 75 / 40 30 30 20 Naples 87 73 87 73 / 40 10 30 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ610-630.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ656-657- 676.