textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 649 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected across Southwest Florida this afternoon and evening as well as tomorrow.

- An isolated severe storm is possible today, but would be a highly conditional case.

- Heat indices expected in the low to mid 100s each day through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Mid level water vapor imagery depicts a pretty sharp moisture gradient across the Bahamas. High pressure off the coast of the Carolinas is pushing some dry air south across the western Atlantic, encroaching on a deep plume of tropical moisture extending from the Caribbean up towards South Florida. On the other side of the peninsula, a weak upper low over the Gulf will help steer moisture near the Yucatan up towards Florida, but a dry slot within the circulation will also create another moisture gradient over the waters. Zooming out synoptically, a shortwave trough is currently making its way across the Rust Belt, allowing for deeper moisture aloft to make its way up the eastern seaboard and provide some more favorable forcing and ascent for showers and storms. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate the wind regime across South Florida, keeping fresh easterlies across the area. SPC mesoanalysis indicates a boundary has set up across the Florida Keys and Florida Straits, where an area of convergence has allowed for a line of showers and storms to form from Cuba all the way to the Florida Bay. Across this region, stronger northeast winds begin to veer more southeasterly. The stronger convection is almost stationary along the gradient of moist and dry airmass interaction, where ascent is greatest. This activity has remained mostly offshore through the morning, with a few light showers moving across the mainland.

Once again, most convection should focus over interior and southwest Florida along the sea-breeze convergence. Unlike the last few days, the HRRR looks to have initialized the current shower activity quite well, so it seems to have a good grasp of the current environment. It's solution for late afternoon storms along the Florida gulf coast fits the current conceptual model quite well, with activity extending north towards the Lake Okeechobee area. Current ACARS soundings and upper air observations from Key West and Tampa Bay indicate a much more moist airmass across the area this afternoon, with PWATs near 2 inches. Less cloud cover than yesterday should allow for efficient diurnal heating, creating steeper low level lapse rates. As a result, there is higher confidence today for stronger thunderstorms and heavier rainfall across southwest Florida. Recent HREF ensemble solutions have been trending more north for the heavier precipitation (Lee and Charlotte counties), but locally heavy downpours may create isolated urban flooding impacts for portions of Collier county. Other threats to look out for will be frequent lightning and breezy to gusty thunderstorm winds.

For Thursday, PoPs and shower coverage has actually trended slightly less, topping out at around 60%. The overall weather pattern will remain pretty similar, with most convection focusing along the sea- breeze convergence over interior and southwest Florida. The main difference is that upper level ridging will begin to stretch across the Gulf coast and there will be less influence from shortwave troughing in the northern CONUS. Also, some models are hinting at a surface high pressure center sitting right over or just west of the Florida gulf coast, with sinking motion looking to hinder convection and thunderstorm maturity. As a result, rain amounts for Thursday look to be slightly less and there should be little to no threat for urban flooding. Moderate HeatRisk will persist for all urban areas throughout the afternoon, with heat indices climbing into the upper 90s and lower 100s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The high pressure circulation that has been in control of the local the weather pattern for a while will break up and weaken for the end of this week and into the weekend, which is expected to result in a highly weak flow pattern. As a result of this, as deep moisture continues to advect into the area daily (PWATs of at least 1.7- 2.0"), rain chances will become more uniform across the entire region through the weekend (50-60% closer to the coasts and 70-80% for interior areas). Highest chances will be for the interior and around the Lake O area since the weak flow pattern will allow for both the Gulf breeze and Atlantic sea breeze to move inland where they may eventually collide with each other. Even if they don't collide, they will be able to advance into those inland locations before stalling out.

As we move into early next week, long range guidance has been coming into better agreement regarding the development of an upper level low near Cuba that would be expected to advect northwards in the vicinity of South Florida before breaking apart. Other then being another source of lift, ensembles do not show that this area of low pressure could strengthen to a point where it produces a surface gradient, but it would shift the low level flow direction. The flow direction mainly matters because it determines which areas will see the most widespread rainfall. Right now the expectation is that low level flow (near the 925-850mb layer) will shift to a southwesterly direction and place the highest rain chances across the northeastern portion of the region (Palm Beach and Broward counties). The exact development of this upper level low and it's propagation is still highly uncertain, so we will continue to monitor this in the coming days.

High temperatures most days across the region will reach the low 90s with overnight lows ranging from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s near the coastlines.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Shower activity is diminishing across interior and southwest Florida this evening. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight for all areas, with winds becoming light and variable. Winds look to pick up from the east tomorrow once again, with a Gulf breeze developing for KAPF. Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the late afternoon across interior and southwest Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A gentle easterly wind flow will be maintained across the local waters today and into the late week period. However, winds will become westerly to west-southwest in the afternoon for the nearshore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers and storms are expected over the Gulf waters each day with drier conditions ongoing for the Atlantic. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less for all local waters over the next few days, although brief periods of increased winds and seas are possible with any thunderstorm activity.

BEACHES

Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

There is a moderate risk for rip currents across portions of the Atlantic beaches over the next few days, primarily for the Palm beaches and Broward beaches. This risk may decrease by the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 89 77 90 / 0 20 10 50 West Kendall 75 90 74 91 / 10 30 10 60 Opa-Locka 77 90 77 91 / 0 20 10 60 Homestead 77 89 77 90 / 10 30 10 50 Fort Lauderdale 78 88 77 89 / 0 20 10 40 N Ft Lauderdale 77 88 77 89 / 0 20 10 50 Pembroke Pines 78 91 78 92 / 0 20 10 50 West Palm Beach 77 89 77 90 / 0 20 20 60 Boca Raton 78 88 78 89 / 0 20 10 50 Naples 75 90 76 90 / 40 30 30 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.