textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 644 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Few late day storms today; scattered to numerous storms Friday and Saturday, and some could be strong.

- Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1253 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Expanded chance PoPs around the lake region and SW FL for late this afternoon into early this evening as a few storms are expected similar to last night. Lowered PoPs from the baseline NBM for tomorrow and Saturday as SAL continues across the region. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A general synoptic picture of the eastern CONUS consists of a shortwave/closed low over the MS/TN Valleys, a shortwave off the Northeast US coast, ridging over Florida, and a TUTT over the far southeastern Bahamas. Southeast flow facilitated by the high pressure over the western Atlantic and Florida peninsula will continue to advect a dusty Saharan air mass across the area today which should limit any afternoon thunderstorm potential and lead to mainly clear skies throughout the day. While the drier and dusty air could act to bring down dewpoints if it mixes to the surface, heat index values will still climb into the 105-110 degree range as the southeast flow should still continue to advect moisture at the lower levels. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for all of South Florida today. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

The departure of this Saharan air mass is expected on Friday and subsequently, rain chances will increase with thunderstorms developing mainly across interior and Southwest Florida Friday afternoon. PWATs climb from the 1.3-1.5 inch range to the 1.8-2 inch range by Friday evening which is near normal for early July. The aforementioned TUTT will be at our doorstep by late Friday which could also act to enhance the coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms enhanced divergence aloft associated with the TUTT will remain to the south of the area and it will also be weakening as it approaches from the Southeast. With enhanced low level moisture, another very hot day is expected on Friday with heat index values reaching the 105-110 degree range. Another heat advisory is probable.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The shortwave across the central CONUS will continue to drift east and elongate as it slowly phases in with the northern stream as a shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. Simultaneously, the aforementioned TUTT will continue to progress just south of the region heading into the weekend. High pressure remains across the western Atlantic which will maintain southeasterly flow through the weekend and will advect an additional plume of Saharan dust across the area by mid-weekend. Ahead of the arrival of drier air, scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across interior and Southwest Florida on Saturday afternoon. PWATs begin to drop back into the 1.3-1.4 inch range on Sunday and Monday which should limit the convective potential towards the end of the weekend into early next week. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40% through Wednesday. Hot conditions are expected to continue through the period, especially for locations that don't receive relief from afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid-upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Additional head advisories will be likely through the remainder of the weekend and into the upcoming work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Few storms over SW FL should dissipate quickly this evening and then mainly VFR conditions expected overnight with light easterly winds. Winds become SE around 10 kts on Friday with a mid to late afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Few storms possible later in the day with APF most likely to be impacted.

MARINE

Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Winds and seas will increase a bit through the remainder of the week as the western edge of high pressure spreads across the SW Atlantic and SE Gulf. Showers and storms are unlikely today, but rain chances will increase Friday into Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 93 81 93 / 10 30 20 20 West Kendall 79 93 78 93 / 10 30 20 20 Opa-Locka 81 94 80 94 / 10 30 20 20 Homestead 81 93 80 93 / 10 30 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 82 92 81 93 / 10 30 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 82 92 81 92 / 10 30 20 30 Pembroke Pines 82 95 82 95 / 10 30 20 30 West Palm Beach 80 93 80 93 / 10 20 20 40 Boca Raton 82 91 81 91 / 10 30 20 30 Naples 78 96 78 93 / 20 40 30 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.