textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 554 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Minor and moderate coastal flooding continues across southeast FL during high tide cycles today. Conditions gradually improve starting tonight. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase across South Florida today, with a medium chance (50-60%) mainly south of Alligator Alley.

UPDATE

Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The first round of rainfall for the day is winding down as activity pushes offshore. A lull in rainfall coverage is likely at least for the next couple of hours before an additional round of showers and storms will be possible. Although this scenario is conditional on whether or not the airmass is able to destabilize, and with ample cloud cover currently over the east coast metro, not super bullish on this potential. Higher chances of showers and storms for the remainder of the afternoon and evening persist for Southwest Florida and especially for local Gulf and Southern waters.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A gradual transition towards more wet and unsettled conditions begins today. A mid-level shortwave impulse will approach from the Gulf; as it does, southerly to southwesterly flow along the atmospheric column will usher a moisture-rich airmass over the area, with PWATs expected to rise back into the 1.8-2.0 inch range. SPC's mesoanalysis already shows this happening, with analyzed PWATs over the area up into the 1.6-1.8 inch range as of 06Z. Later today, the influence of this impulse and the increase in moisture across the area will allow for the return of scattered showers and thunderstorms across South Florida (with PoPs in the 50-60% range). While most of the activity looks like it stays south of our area, CAMs are still suggesting isolated to scattered activity beginning shortly after daybreak, starting across southwest FL and drifting eastward across the region.

The midlevel impulse will linger over the Gulf overnight and into Wednesday, continuing to promote unstable and humid conditions across South Florida. Coverage looks to be a bit more sparse throughout the day compared to today, but PoPs remain in the 50-60% range, supported by high-res ensemble guidance.

Increasing cloud coverage over the area will help keep high temperatures in the mid 80s today, while overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 70s. Warmer conditions are expected on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Mid-level ridging will begin to build on Wednesday night as the mid- level impulse gets dragged northward with the mean flow. Near the surface, high pressure will continue to build across the western Atlantic into the weekend, bringing the return of easterly to southeasterly flow across the area. Moisture advection will continue, with PWATs forecast to continue hovering near 2 inches through the period. This pattern will promote continued scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm development each afternoon. Storm activity will likely favor interior and southwestern Florida due to the stronger easterly flow during the latter half of the week. Conditions could become a bit windy as well towards the weekend as a frontal boundary settles across the southeastern US; its proximity to the surface high will help tighten up the pressure gradient across the region.

There is increasing confidence that temperatures will increase back into the upper 80s and low 90s areawide over the weekend, especially as easterly flow and moisture return increase.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Diminishing showers and storms overnight with light and variable flow. Chance for additional showers and storms Wednesday morning, and should begin to diminish by late afternoon. Winds become east- southeasterly by late morning with erratic winds possible around any thunderstorm activity.

MARINE

Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Light southerly winds will prevail across all local waters today, gradually becoming more easterly on Wednesday as surface high builds over the western Atlantic. Seas should remain in the 1-3 feet range. Isolated to scattered showers will develop each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Brisk conditions return late week.

BEACHES

Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Coastal flooding remains likely along the southeastern and southern coastlines during the high tide cycles today. Observations continue to out-perform guidance by a decent margin, leading us to anticipate tidal gauges to reach Moderate once again today. As such, A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastline, while a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for mainland Monroe, where Minor stage coastal flooding could be possible.

Tidal forecasts are lower for this evening and tomorrow, but the tidal guidance is performing very poorly, so not putting a ton of weight on it for forecasting. Erring on the side of caution and continuing the Coastal Flood Advisory through Wednesday morning as moderate flooding could still be possible tonight and tomorrow during high tide, especially with the elevated rain chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 87 78 87 / 40 50 50 80 West Kendall 75 86 77 87 / 40 50 50 70 Opa-Locka 75 87 77 87 / 30 50 50 70 Homestead 75 87 77 88 / 50 60 50 80 Fort Lauderdale 75 87 78 87 / 30 50 60 80 N Ft Lauderdale 75 87 78 87 / 30 40 60 80 Pembroke Pines 74 87 77 87 / 30 50 50 70 West Palm Beach 75 88 77 88 / 30 40 50 70 Boca Raton 75 87 77 88 / 30 40 60 80 Naples 72 88 74 88 / 40 60 30 80

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.