textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 743 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- The threat of isolated strong to severe storms remains in the forecast this afternoon/evening across northeastern South Florida.

- A stalled out frontal boundary could keep rain chances elevated across much of the region through the end of the work week.

- Apparent temperatures (feels-like) could peak in the 100-105F range this afternoon across most urban areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

RTMA analysis indicates that zonal mid-level flow continues across South Florida early this morning as expansive mid-level troughing amplifies and advects southwards over the northeastern United States and Mid-Atlantic regions over the next several hours. The centroid of mid-level ridging to our south remains over Cuba and is gradually forecast to slide eastward over the course of today, resulting in a veering of mid-level winds over South Florida to more of a southwesterly direction later today. The aforementioned mid-level troughing over much of the eastern United States is forecast to aide the development of surface low pressure in the western Atlantic waters offshore of South/North Carolina as the instability laden waters of the Gulfstream and a developing jet-streak facilitate cyclogenesis. The developing surface low and upper level forcing will allow for a "late season" cold front to sweep across much of the southeastern United States, arriving across the far northern extent of the Florida Peninsula by this evening.

As South Florida will reside in the warm sector of the frontal boundary today with the continued plume of deep tropical moisture (forecast precipitable water values of 1.9 to 2.1 inches) and lobes of mid-level vorticity advecting west to east across the Gulf, ample humidity will continue to reside in the 0-1 km layer of the boundary layer. Ample sunshine and light winds will result in a quick warm up across the region this morning with forecast high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and apparent temperatures peaking in the 100F to 105F range during the afternoon hours of today. This will result in a forecasted Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4) across most urban areas today, so be sure to plan accordingly to take heat safety tips if you plan on being outdoors, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours before storms are forecast to develop. Mesoscale model guidance depicts background surface winds veering to a northwesterly direction by the late morning/early afternoon hours as anti-cyclonic flow develops across the region in response to weak surface ridging situated across the eastern Gulf. However model guidance also hints at the development of an Atlantic sea-breeze during the afternoon hours which could serve as a foci for maximized ascent and the development of diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity.

While the overall kinematic profile on forecast model soundings appears to be quite marginal, 500mb temperatures of -8C to -9C and some residual dry air (DCAPE of 800-1000 J/kg, forecast 0-3km lapse rates of 8+ C/km could support the potential of downdrafts being sustained to the surface) in the mid-levels could support the potential for strong downbursts and marginally severe hail along the Atlantic sea-breeze. As of the writing of this discussion, the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the northeastern half of the region today. Shear analysis via sounding profiles suggests that convection may originate as singular pulse cores before congealing into multi-cellular clusters as outflow boundaries develop and collide. High DCAPE may result in outflow boundaries resulting in a quick movement of convection if convection becomes outflow dominant. Outside of the most robust cores producing strong to marginally severe wind and hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall is possible with any thunderstorm. While the latest HREF's localized probability-matched mean is not too bullish on rainfall totals today, localized pockets of 1-2" in a short period of time could result in localized flooding concerns across east coast urban areas this afternoon. Ample moisture and maximized convergence may allow for shower and thunderstorm activity to persist after sunset before gradually dissipating tonight. Some mesoscale models even hint at a potential cluster of thunderstorms arriving across the northeastern portion of South Florida after sunset from activity that originated across east-central Florida.

The amplification of mid-level troughing across the southeastern United States and the southward advancement of the frontal boundary southward across the Florida Peninsula will result in the boundary being forecast to arrive in the vicinity of our region shortly after daybreak on Wednesday. Different model members show slight deviations in overall timing of arrival but all depict continued high precipitable water values south of the boundary and the continued stream of mid-level vorticity aloft. Uncertainty remains on the exact evolution of convection on Wednesday as boundary timing and cloud cover extent could limit or facilitate diurnal convection. Overnight mesoscale models remain split on an exact evolution with some model members depicting overcast skies with drizzle and others showing more robust thunderstorm development occurring along mesoscale boundaries. The latest NBM forecast for Wednesday depicts a drop in maximum temperatures into the mid to upper 80s area-wide which hints at a higher amount of cloud cover across the region.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

As the mid-level trough amplifies and advects eastward into the western Atlantic waters, deterministic and ensemble guidance hints at the frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity of South Florida Thursday into Friday with forecast precipitable remaining at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Model guidance continues to hint at the potential development of a cut-off low (and non-tropical surface low pressure) over the region or just east of South Florida in the vicinity of the northwestern Bahamas. The evolution of the potential cut-off low and surface flow direction around the surface low pressure will have direct implications on the forecast for the upcoming weekend and early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 743 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across all sites today, with generally light westerly winds. A slight sea breeze will attempt to develop along the East Coast, which could result in winds backing out of the southeast for a short period of time this afternoon. Slight chance for TSRA late this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Light northwesterly winds across the nearshore waters will veer to an onshore direction by this afternoon. A front is forecast to move across much of the state Wednesday through Thursday and bring an increase in surface winds as well as a more significant swell across the Atlantic waters. Advisory level seas are possible by late week across the Gulfstream waters. Scattered showers and storms are expected today across Atlantic waters and will be more widespread in nature across Gulf and Atlantic waters Wednesday through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 76 85 74 / 70 50 70 60 West Kendall 92 74 87 72 / 70 50 70 60 Opa-Locka 92 75 87 74 / 70 50 70 60 Homestead 91 76 87 74 / 60 40 70 70 Fort Lauderdale 89 76 84 75 / 70 50 70 70 N Ft Lauderdale 89 76 84 74 / 60 50 70 70 Pembroke Pines 92 77 88 75 / 70 50 70 60 West Palm Beach 89 75 84 75 / 60 50 70 70 Boca Raton 89 76 85 75 / 60 50 70 70 Naples 91 77 87 73 / 10 40 60 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.