textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 659 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

- High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Tuesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Low-end chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm. Rain chances will remain elevated over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Models and synoptic charts describe a relatively deep high pressure ridge still dominating the SE CONUS and the northern portions of the peninsula, while a weakening U/L low meanders around the Bahamas just east of Florida. Morning convective activity on radar looked very similar to the previous day with training of showers and embedded thunderstorms focusing over east/central Broward, and interior Miami-Dade counties, although rainfall rates have been lower so far.

Convection is expected to continue to shift towards interior and west coast areas through the rest of this afternoon and early evening hours as the easterly flow keeps the Gulf breeze limited to the immediate west coastline. Thermodyn parameters remain favorable enough for possible strong to isolated severe cells to develop, including max SBCAPE around 3000 j/kg, MFL and model sounding PWATs close to 2", along with steep lapse rates through the late afternoon hours. Best chances for the strongest updrafts will again reside along collision boundaries, especially where the Gulf breeze meets the easterly flow.

Similar scenario is expected on Tuesday, with the easterly flow dominating the Gulf breeze and favoring convection on the western half of SoFlo. However, slightly warmer temps aloft and hints of possible mid-lvl drier air intrusion may result in weaker cells.

Nighttime lows should remain warm with mid-upper 70s near the coasts, and low 70s inland. High temperatures for Tuesday will again range from the mid-upper 80s in SE Florida, to low-mid 90s over SW Florida.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Longwave ridging will be the dominant pattern aloft for the eastern CONUS during the middle portion of the week. Florida will find itself in between an H5 centroid to its west over the southern Gulf and an H5 centroid to its east near Bermuda. Within the overall ridging pattern, ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement of showing a cut off low meandering around the northern Caribbean just east of the Bahamas. This area of low pressure will provide increased forcing for storms over the Atlantic waters as several lobes of vorticity advect westward near the vicinity of the Florida coastline. Florida will remain under rich moisture through the period, but some deeper pockets look to raise PWATs to near 1.8 inches, which is within the 75th percentile for this time of year. At the surface, winds will remain mostly easterly, but wind speeds will be slightly weaker than in the beginning of the week as pressure gradients relax across the eastern seaboard. As a result of this predominant easterly flow, the Gulf breeze won't be able to advance as far east. This will result in most afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring interior and portions of southwest Florida each day. Overall, PoPs will generally be in the 30% to 40% range across the peninsula each day, with higher 55% to 65% PoPs along the sea breeze convergence zones. Main threats will be frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours, and gusty winds.

Despite the cutoff low nearby, 500 mb heights will actually be between 586 to 589 dm across South Florida, which is near to slightly above average for this time of year. This will in turn lead to slightly above normal temperatures area wide, with high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. With moisture staying steady throughout the week, heat indices will remain in the upper 90s and lower 100s through the period as well. Zooming into the forecast a little bit, diurnal heating will drive most of these high temperatures each afternoon. But, with increased chances of showers moving onshore from the Gulfstream during the morning (particularly for the middle part of the week), cloud cover and rain may keep things cooler over certain spots during the day. Conversely, increased cloud cover and rain during the nighttime hours may suppress radiational cooling and keep things slightly warmer overnight. For the most part, widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) is expected each day. However, long range ensembles are indicating that pressure heights will increase slightly as longwave ridging shifts east and the cut off low dissolves. This will result in warmer temperatures for the weekend, with the NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool showing a 40 to 50 percent chance of Major heat impacts for the east coast metro areas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 659 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Easterly winds 10-15 kts through the period. Scattered coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

A moderate to fresh easterly breeze will remain established across the local waters early this week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day with extra activity expected for the Gulf waters compared to the Atlantic waters. Periods of rough seas and gustier winds are expected in and around thunderstorm activity. Atlantic seas early this week are expected generally at 3-4 feet with Gulf seas of 2 feet or less.

BEACHES

Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues for all of the Atlantic beaches early this week as breezy onshore winds persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 87 78 88 / 30 40 20 20 West Kendall 74 88 74 89 / 30 40 20 20 Opa-Locka 77 88 77 89 / 30 40 20 20 Homestead 76 87 77 88 / 40 40 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 77 85 77 86 / 40 30 30 30 Pembroke Pines 78 89 78 90 / 30 40 20 30 West Palm Beach 77 86 78 87 / 40 30 20 10 Boca Raton 78 86 79 86 / 40 30 20 20 Naples 75 92 75 92 / 10 70 10 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.