textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday for the Atlantic beaches. - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Tuesday before drier conditions return for mid week.

- Areas of fog possible early this morning over inland portions of South FL.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Latest probabilistic guidance shows an increasing likelihood for patchy to areas of dense fog, especially over inland portions of South FL. Given the clearing skies, light winds, and precip yesterday, the increase in probs seems reasonable. Increased the coverage of patchy fog to include much of South FL outside of the immediate metro, and included areas of fog over inland portions of SW FL. Will monitor observations and area web cams closely this morning to see if any headlines will be needed.

Early morning analysis shows a frontal boundary across northern FL with a couple of weak lows along the frontal boundary in the northern Gulf. Locally, moderate easterly flow will continue again today, with the latest HREF showing PWAT values continuing to slowly increase today with values of 1.6-1.8 inches by late in the day. Most of the hi-res guidance continues to struggle with precip for today, so going with more of a persistence forecast today with scattered showers throughout the day. While chances will remain for the entire east coast metro, the best signals for persistent coastal convergence showers will be over Palm Beach and northern Broward counties. QPF is another struggle today, but wouldn't be surprised to see pockets of 0.5-1 inch amounts, while the vast majority of the area will be a quarter inch or less. High temps this afternoon will range from the low to middle 80s.

As the complex system shifts to the SE US late tonight into early Tuesday morning, our low level flow will become SSE tonight and eventually SSW during the day on Tuesday. Some widely scattered coastal showers are possible overnight into the early morning hours, with mild lows ranging from the upper 60s around the lake to lower 70s across the east coast metro.

With the SSW flow in place on Tuesday, the humidity really ramps up with dewpoints surging into the low to middle 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches. As the frontal boundary starts to approach our area from the NW, plenty of instability will be in place for showers and occasional thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours. High temps Tuesday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

The cold front will cross the area on Wednesday before settling south of the area across the FL Straits. Little moisture will be left by the time the front gets here, so rainfall chances will be fairly low. The front will however bring some slightly cooler and drier air to the region for the remainder of the work-week, with temperatures returning to near normal. As the low level flow turns southerly next weekend, moisture begins to increase the slight chances of rain will return to the forecast. Temps next weekend will also return to several degrees above normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions remain possible early this morning due to patchy fog. Light easterly winds this morning increase to around 10kts after 15Z, with a mid afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered showers possible across the east coast terminals throughout the day. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions remain possible early this morning due to patchy fog.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Cautionary easterly winds expected across the local waters today before turning southerly on Tuesday. A brief period of hazardous winds is possible across the Atlantic waters Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the Atlantic through Tuesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Moderate easterly flow today will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. The high risk will remain through Tuesday before conditions improve mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 83 73 84 69 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 84 70 85 66 / 10 0 20 10 Opa-Locka 84 72 86 68 / 20 10 20 10 Homestead 83 72 84 68 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 81 72 84 68 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 82 72 85 69 / 30 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 84 72 86 68 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 82 72 86 67 / 30 20 30 10 Boca Raton 83 72 86 67 / 30 20 30 10 Naples 85 69 82 67 / 10 10 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.