textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Mainly dry and seasonable conditions will remain in place across South Florida through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion of the week. - Patchy fog is possible early Monday morning over interior portions of South FL.

- Above normal temperatures may return to portions of South Florida towards the middle and the end of the week as mid level ridging strengthens over the region.

UPDATE

Issued at 1200 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Only noticeable change to the short term forecast is that patchy fog was introduced early Monday morning over interior portions of South FL. With light to calm winds and mainly clear skies overnight, probabilities have increased for visibilities under 1 mile over the favored interior portions. This would include portions of Alligator Alley, Tamiami Trail, SR-29 and 80, and US-27. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1233 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

The mid to upper level flow across the region will gradually become more zonal today as a weak mid level shortwave pushes off into the western Atlantic. This zonal flow will remain in place across South Florida through Monday as well. At the surface, high pressure will continue to slide down across the region today and it will remain centered over the area or just to the south on Monday. This southward push is in response to a weakening frontal boundary that will be dissipating off to the north across Northern and Central Florida on Monday. This will also cause the synoptic wind flow at the surface to remain generally light out of the west southwest today and then it will shift and become light out of the northwest on Monday. With an abundance of dry air in place throughout most of the atmospheric column, (PWAT values hovering between 0.7 and 0.9 inches), the sensible weather across South Florida will remain dry and pleasant throughout the rest of the weekend and into Monday. High temperatures will remain right around climatological normals today and Monday as they rise into the lower 80s across most of the area.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1233 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, mid level ridging centered over the southern Gulf and northwestern Carribean sea will gradually expand northeastward over the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the surface, some gradual moisture advection will be taking place as the remnants of the frontal boundary that washed out off to the north pushes into the region. At the same time, winds will become easterly on Tuesday and these winds will gradually increase heading towards the middle of the week as the pressure gradient tightens across the region. The combination of the easterly flow along with some lingering moisture pushing into the region from the washed out frontal boundary may be enough to spark off some isolated shower activity across the eastern half of South Florida during this time frame. With an abundance of dry air remaining in place across the mid to upper levels, any shower that does develop heading into the middle of the week will remain low topped and rather short lived. As the mid level ridge strengthens across the region combined with increasing easterly surface wind flow, temperatures will slowly start moderating heading into the middle of the week. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will generally range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

For the second half of the week, mid level ridging will continue to strengthen and build over the region centering over the southeastern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure will remain parked to the northeast over the western Atlantic. South Florida will remain on the southwestern periphery of this high through Thursday and Friday. This will keep the moderate easterly wind flow in place across the region during this time frame. With plenty of subsidence taking place over the area thanks to high pressure to the northeast as well as mid level ridging strengthening over the region, mainly dry conditions will continue across the region through the rest of the week. High temperatures will remain on the warm side for Thursday and Friday as they range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Light WSW winds this afternoon becoming light and variable overnight. Some patchy fog is possible over interior South FL early Monday morning but probabilities of impacting any of the terminals are low at this point.

MARINE

Issued at 1233 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

A gentle westerly breeze will develop across most of the local waters today. The exception to this will be across portions of the Atlantic waters where winds may become south to southwesterly in the afternoon. These winds will become north northwesterly on Monday, before veering and becoming easterly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the weekend. The seas across the northern Atlantic waters may slightly increase and range from 2 to 3 feet on Monday as north to northwesterly wind flow increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 63 82 67 83 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 60 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 63 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 62 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 63 80 67 81 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 63 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 63 84 66 85 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 62 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 20 Boca Raton 62 82 66 84 / 0 0 0 20 Naples 63 80 64 84 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.