textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 - Scattered showers today with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two. Drier conditions return Wednesday.

- Areas of fog possible early Tuesday morning over inland portions of South FL.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 211 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Patchy to areas of dense fog once again looks likely across inland and SW Florida due to winds becoming light and variable overnight in those areas and adequate near-surface level moisture. Winds should be moderate enough to avoid fog development for most of the east coast metro, although won't rule out some patchy fog for the western fringes of the metro. Latest probabilistic guidance indicates between 50-70% chance for fog to lower visibilities to 0.5 miles or less across interior and SW Florida with 10-20% closer to the Gulf coast. Therefore, areas of fog are forecast for the interior and SW Florida with inland Gulf coast and far western east coast metro areas forecast to see patchy fog.

As far as the latest analysis for the next couple of days, ensembles show an upper level ridge centered over the Caribbean Sea and extending over Central and South Florida. This will prevent a shortwave trough over the central U.S. from penetrating southwards as it shifts east, although the attendant cold front from this trough will advect southwards and push through the area likely on Wednesday morning. While this boundary will add a source of lift for precipitation chances to increase, it will be a rather weak frontal passage with drier air aloft inhibiting instability and a lack of surface heating due to it arriving late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Thus, while some light shower activity is forecast for portions of the area today, they will be of the weak variety and of limited duration which leads to no concerns. The showers today and into this evening will target mostly SW Florida as flow shifts out of the SW and coastal convergence will occur on the Gulf side rather than the Atlantic side like the past few days. The frontal boundary will also move through SW Florida first before SE Florida. After the frontal boundary passes, overall dry weather is expected to return for Wednesday.

High temperatures for today and are expected in the low to mid 80s with highs tomorrow around 80 to the low 80s. Overnight lows Tuesday night will range from the low 60s over interior South Florida to the mid to upper 60s near the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 211 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

A drier air mass will settle into the region in the wake of the passing frontal boundary on Wednesday along with an upper level ridge maintaining its presence across South Florida through the end of the week, which will keep dry and calm weather in place for the end of this week and into the weekend. As the weekend progresses, guidance is hinting at the next longwave trough amplifying and pushing across the eastern U.S. heading into next week. If this trend continues, slight rain chances will arise again as flow would shift out of the south as the trough advects across the central and eastern U.S., which in return will increase moisture availability across South Florida and weaken the upper level ridge. Guidance also hints that this trough could be a little more robust than the shortwave in the middle of this week, meaning that it will have a greater chance to produce rain showers. However, with this being at the tail end of the forecast period, uncertainty is high in this trough's amplification and progression and thus we will have to monitor trends over the next several days. Regardless, no major impacts from this area of low pressure are expected.

Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend for the end of the week and this weekend with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 80s by this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR will generally prevail through the period, with brief periods of MVFR conditions possible at KAPF with low cigs and patchy fog early this morning. Winds will shift from the southeast to the south and eventually southwest today sustaining around 10-12 kts and gusting to 20-25 kts. VCSH mentioned for KAPF, but uncertainty is high for the rest of the sites so no mention of SHRA potential as of yet.

MARINE

Issued at 211 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will turn southerly and eventually southwesterly as the day progresses today ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A brief period of hazardous winds is possible across the northern Atlantic waters as a result of that this afternoon. Therefore, cautionary conditions are expected today. Winds will decrease in the wake of the frontal passage for Wednesday and into the end of the week. Seas will be generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the Atlantic.

BEACHES

Issued at 211 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Easterly flow will shift to the southwest today and will assist in decreasing the rip current risk today, with a moderate risk now in effect for all of the Atlantic coast beaches today. An elevated risk may continue into the late week period for portions of the Atlantic coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 85 69 83 66 / 10 20 0 0 West Kendall 86 66 84 63 / 10 20 0 0 Opa-Locka 86 68 83 66 / 10 20 0 0 Homestead 84 68 83 66 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 68 81 66 / 10 20 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 85 69 81 66 / 20 20 0 0 Pembroke Pines 87 68 84 65 / 10 20 0 0 West Palm Beach 86 68 81 64 / 20 20 0 0 Boca Raton 87 68 83 64 / 20 20 0 0 Naples 82 66 80 61 / 20 20 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.