textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 752 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 - Record heat possible again today. A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South FL.

- Scattered thunderstorms expected late in the day. Storm chances increase for the end of the week through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

After a history making day in Miami on Tuesday with the high temp hitting 100, it's not time to let the guard down, as the heat will be a major factor again today. Surface high pressure will remain over the central Gulf today and Thursday, while the upper level ridge begins to break down over the region as a trough starts to dig into the eastern US. Global models are still hinting at a weak mid/upper level low over the northeastern Gulf over the next couple of days.

Today will start out dry across South FL, however low level moisture will slowly start increasing as the day progresses as the higher concentrations of Saharan dust finally get shunted south of the area. PWAT values of 1.8-1.9 inches are expected by late afternoon. The east coast sea-breeze will take its time to begin pushing inland but by mid afternoon should be making it's way through the metro. Some scattered thunderstorms are expected late in the day along the breeze. The heat will continue to be the main story today though. With west to northwest flow over the area through at least early afternoon, high temps will easily reach the mid to upper 90s. While the mean forecast high for Miami is around 97, the latest NBM probs once again have about a 10% chance of reaching 100 at the airport, so definitely not out of the realm of possibility that Miami does it for the second day in a row. The timing of the sea-breeze making it to the airport will likely be the determining factor. Heat indices this afternoon will reach 105-112, so yet another Heat Advisory will be in place for all of South FL from 11 AM to 7 PM.

Convection will likely linger for several hours after dark until fully dissipating and skies begin to start clearing overnight. Low temps tonight remain mild ranging from the middle 70s over inland south FL to lower 80s near the coasts.

Moisture further increases on Thursday with forecast soundings showing PWAT values of around 2 inches. Latest hi-res guidance is in fairly good agreement of convection getting an earlier start in the afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms from mid afternoon through early evening. With the anticipated earlier start to convection that should help temps stay a tad lower on Thursday, albeit still above normal. Expecting highs in the low to mid 90s across the metro, and mid to upper 90s over inland South FL. Heat indices will still reach 105-110 by early afternoon before rain starts to cool some areas down, so additional heat headlines may be needed.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The extended period will see a much needed return to a more typical summertime pattern. An upper level ridge will be anchored over the western US while the eastern US will remain under the influence of a trough. Surface high pressure will remain over the Gulf this weekend into early next week. Expect mainly diurnally driven sea-breeze convection each day with seasonable PoPs (40-60%) favoring the afternoon and early evening hours, and then widely scattered coastal showers during the overnight period.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend and into early next week. Max heat indices will remain around advisory criteria each day, so additional heat headlines will remain possible.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 752 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Generally VFR through the period except for afternoon/early evening showers and storms which could bring brief bouts of sub- VFR requiring short-fused AMDs later today. Wind should remain light and with a westerly component until the Atlantic sea breeze develops and moves inland by the afternoon except around showers/storms. APF will remain westerly as the Gulf sea breeze should also advance inland.

MARINE

Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Moderate west to northwest breeze across the Gulf waters today, with gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Atlantic. Seas generally 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms are possible late in the day which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

CLIMATE

Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Record high temperatures are possible Wednesday. Here are the current records for Wednesday:

WED(YEAR)

MIA 96 (1909) FLL 97 (1952) DJT 97 (1938)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 97 80 94 80 / 40 30 50 10 West Kendall 98 77 94 79 / 40 30 50 10 Opa-Locka 98 80 95 81 / 40 30 50 20 Homestead 97 79 93 79 / 30 20 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 95 81 93 81 / 40 30 50 20 N Ft Lauderdale 96 81 94 80 / 40 30 50 20 Pembroke Pines 97 81 94 81 / 40 30 50 20 West Palm Beach 96 79 94 79 / 50 20 50 20 Boca Raton 94 80 92 79 / 50 30 50 20 Naples 92 79 92 79 / 20 20 50 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.