textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 615 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Thunderstorm activity diminishes tonight. There will be another chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

- Slow storm motion combined with the potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding, especially across urban and poor drainage areas.

- Peak heat index values will range between 103 and 108 across most areas of South Florida Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Thunderstorms have developed over the east coast metro areas this afternoon. Given how unstable the environment is, there is a high chance that convection will continue and become more widespread through the afternoon, especially inland as boundaries drift west. With little to no synoptic forcing, initiation will be confined to outflow and mesoscale boundary collisions. Given weak flow, storm motions will once again be very slow, increasing the threat for areas of localized flooding. PWATs remain above the 90th percentile, nearing 2.4" this afternoon, so efficient rainfall will occur with storms. Be watchful for quick ponding on roads and in poor drainage areas. With regards to severe potential, the threat is low and the mesoscale environment favors more pulse-type convection. With that being said, if a storm gets a tall enough, near severe level winds (58 mph or greater) could briefly occur with the collapse of the storm given how much moisture-loaded sounding profiles are and current DCAPE values of 900 J/kg.

Thunderstorm activity will greatly diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight temperatures will drop into the low to mid 70s across the gulf coast and inland areas, and drop closer to 80 along the east coast. Friday's forecast looks very similar with little to no dynamic support for organized storms. Activity will once again be triggered by sea breeze and any outflow interactions that may occur. CAMs continue to indicate even higher PWATs ushering in from the Atlantic coast tomorrow which will yield even higher rainfall rates. Widespread flooding is not likely, but any areas that receive rainfall today may be more susceptible to localized flooding tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

As the expansive area of high pressure over the southeast continues to weaken and drift east, surface high pressure will set up over the Atlantic. This feature will influence southern Florida's weather through the holiday weekend, keeping high rain and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. Timing will favor the afternoon and the highest chances are more inland and across the west coast as the sea breeze sets up. Atmospheric profiles remain very similar as they do now with little to no dynamic support. This will keep convective initiation mainly pinned to boundary interactions. Outside of thunderstorm activity, heat will remain a concern with heat index values ranging from 105-110. The concern for heat will carry into next week as high pressure remains near the area. Daily afternoon thunderstorm chances will continue next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Isolated TSRA still exists this evening, but activity continues to diminish. Winds will be light and variable overnight. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely again Friday afternoon, but exact location of development remains uncertain. PROB30 groups have been included in the taf.

MARINE

Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Winds are light and generally out of the southeast this afternoon. Showers and storms have mostly pushed onshore. Winds are out of the southwest over the gulf, shifting light and variable overnight. Wave heights are less than 2 ft over the gulf, and between 2 to 3 ft over the Atlantic. Should thunderstorms move over, erratic wind direction can be expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 92 79 91 / 30 50 30 80 West Kendall 75 92 76 92 / 30 60 30 80 Opa-Locka 78 93 79 93 / 30 60 30 80 Homestead 78 92 79 92 / 20 50 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 80 91 / 20 50 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 79 91 / 30 60 20 80 Pembroke Pines 80 94 81 94 / 30 60 30 80 West Palm Beach 78 91 78 91 / 20 70 30 80 Boca Raton 79 91 79 91 / 30 60 20 80 Naples 78 91 78 91 / 40 50 40 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.