textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 702 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop today and Monday with the highest chances occurring over the interior and east coast metro areas during the afternoon and evening hours. - High rainfall rates combined with slow storm motion will create the potential for localized flooding especially across the east coast metro areas today and Monday.

- Peak heat index values will generally range between 103 and 108 this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Rather pronounced mid level troughing extends southwestward today from the Great Lakes region all the way down to the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Northern Gulf Coast. This trough will gradually slide eastward tonight and will gradually encompass most of the Eastern Seaboard heading into Monday. While the base of the trough and the general trough axis will stay north of the region, it will make a close approach today into tonight. By Monday, the western periphery of a mid level ridge located in the western Atlantic will start to retrograde back over South Florida, which will essentially block the southeastward progression of the trough during this time frame. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will stall over the Southeast as well as the Florida Panhandle and Northern Florida today and it will remain nearly stationary heading into Monday.

While this set up will continue to create a general south to southwesterly wind flow across most areas today through a good portion of Monday, it will help to keep the east coast sea breeze pinned over the metro areas as it will not be able to advance very far inland. In addition to this, with south to southwesterly winds remaining in place across the mid levels, deep tropical moisture will be able to push into the region throughout the rest of the weekend and into Monday. The latest forecast model soundings show a very saturated atmospheric column and PWATs generally rising and ranging between 2.2 and 2.4 inches across most of South Florida this afternoon. These very high PWAT values remain in place for Monday as well especially across the Lake region as well as the east coast metro areas.

The increased moisture across the region will allow for convective initiation to occur earlier than it has over the past several days. With a rather light south to southwesterly steering flow in place, the highest chances of showers and storms will remain focused over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas this afternoon, and then again on Monday afternoon. Storm motion will remain slow, and rainfall rates associated with the stronger storms will continue to remain high due to the abundance of moisture in place today and Monday. This could continue to create the potential for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas, where multiple rounds of heavy downpours could take place over a short period of time. While strong thunderstorm development will be rather limited this afternoon and Monday, it cannot be entirely ruled out as storms could contain gusty winds especially where mesoscale boundary collisions take place.

High temperatures for both today and Monday will generally rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. Peak heat index values this afternoon will generally range between 102 and 108, however, with convection starting earlier, they will not remain at these peak levels for an extended period of time.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The mid level troughing over the Southeast will gradually evolve into a closed low on Monday night and it will be parked over the Tennessee River Valley through Tuesday before gradually opening back up into a trough and getting pulled north towards the middle of the week. To the east, mid level ridging will remain centered over the western Atlantic. The southwestern periphery of the ridge will continue to try to build over South Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to build over the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf heading towards the middle of the week. This will allow for a return to a rather light southeasterly wind flow on Tuesday, and then a light to moderate easterly flow heading into the middle of the week.

Plenty of moisture will linger across the region as the latest global and ensemble models continue to hint at relatively high PWAT values remaining in place through the middle of the week. With ridging trying to build back into the region, the main driver of convective initiation on Tuesday and Wednesday will be the sea breeze boundaries as they push inland. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will focus mainly over the interior and Southwest Florida each afternoon during this time frame. However, with the lighter southeasterly flow on Tuesday, showers and storms may linger a bit longer near portions of the east coast metro areas during the afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday should rise into the lower 90s across most areas with peak heat index values reaching 103 to 108 each day.

Moving into Thursday and Friday, the forecast does become more uncertain as the latest global and ensemble guidance continues to show signs of a potential TUTT feature moving over the Bahamas on Thursday before potentially getting closer to the region on Friday. The latest global and ensemble guidance suite still remains in disagreement in regards to the exact timing and location of this feature. The ECMWF guidance suite does show a stronger TUTT getting a bit closer to the region, while the GFS suite shows this feature remaining a bit further off to the northeast of the area and weaker. The closer and stronger this feature is, the bigger role it could play in enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity during this time frame. In any event, easterly flow still looks to hold strong heading into the end of the week, which would create a focus of the highest shower and thunderstorm chances occurring over the interior and Southwest Florida each afternoon during this time frame. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps the highest chances of showers and storms over these areas on Thursday and Friday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures towards the end of the week will rise into the lower 90s across most areas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Scattered thunderstorms today may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Light and variable winds early this morning becoming SE 10-15 kts, with a westerly Gulf breeze this afternoon at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will continue over most of the local waters through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion of next week. The exception to this will be across the Atlantic waters, where winds may become south southeast especially heading into tonight and Monday. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion of next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across most of the local waters each day through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 80 92 79 / 60 20 70 30 West Kendall 92 77 92 76 / 60 20 70 20 Opa-Locka 93 79 93 79 / 70 20 70 30 Homestead 92 79 92 80 / 50 20 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 91 79 / 70 30 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 91 79 91 79 / 70 30 70 30 Pembroke Pines 92 80 92 80 / 70 20 70 30 West Palm Beach 92 77 92 78 / 70 30 70 30 Boca Raton 91 78 91 79 / 70 30 70 30 Naples 91 79 92 79 / 40 20 30 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.