textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 116 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 - Dry and comfortable weather continues through Saturday.

- Above average temperatures continue through this weekend with highs increasing to the mid to upper 80s.

- Rain chances return for Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 116 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Latest ACARS soundings and model soundings depict a near-surface inversion and a nearly saturated layer just below this inversion down to the surface. With light and variable surface winds in place overnight due to the inversion and overall high pressure pattern, this setup supports the development of patchy fog across interior and SW Florida this morning and potentially may extend to the western edges of the east coast metro. While HREF probabilities are only at 20% for fog to reduce visibilities to under 1 mile, the parameters are in place for this to over-perform.

As for the overall forecast for today and tomorrow, it will be more rinse and repeat from the last couple of days as a mid-level ridge remains over the area even as it gets pushed into the western Atlantic as a trough from the central US starts to advect eastward. A strong upper-level ridge remains centered over the Caribbean as well. Therefore, expect ongoing quiet weather for today and through tomorrow. High temperatures will remain above average underneath the high pressure, reaching the low to mid 80s both today and tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 116 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Elongated troughing will set up across most of the entire CONUS with exceptions being Central and South Florida and the Desert Southwest. As this pattern continues to advect eastward, the mid-level ridge currently over the area will begin to be pushed away into the Atlantic on Sunday into Monday and the upper level ridge over the Caribbean and Florida Straits will begin to break down as well. During this same time frame, the trough will continue to amplify as it swings into the Mid-Atlantic and an attendant cold front along the leading edge of the trough will rush southwards and is expected to move through South Florida on Monday. Ahead of the front, low level wind flow will shift southerly and lead to an increase in moisture advection as PWATs climb back above 1.5". As the frontal boundary propagates southwards, it will provide necessary forcing for ascent that will be able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region especially on Monday. Current general QPF across the region is forecast for less than 1 inch, with 90th percentile (potential high-end) total precip of 1-2". Due to the recent long dry stretch, this amount of rain would not pose impactful weather and in fact would provide some much needed rainfall. The only risk will be an isolated location receiving high- end rainfall in a short duration of time. However, brisk flow aloft (20-30 kts) should prevent the risk of isolated locations receiving high amounts of rain in a short time. We will continue to update the rainfall forecast as this cold frontal passage gets closer this weekend.

Behind the cold front heading into the middle of next week, the front has potential to stall out as it reaches the Florida Straits which could leave some lingering moisture behind in parts of SE Florida and guidance does hint at another shortwave trough possibly moving through around Wed-Thu next week. Regardless, any lingering rainfall for portions of SE Florida should be minimal if these trends continue where some moisture lingers. Thus, expect quieter weather to return post-front for the middle of next week and into late next week.

High temperatures will remain above average on Sunday into the mid 80s and even upper 80s possible for the interior. These temps will fall on Monday and continuing into the middle of next week as the cold front passes with temps primarily in the upper 70s. Overnight lows will dip as well starting Monday night with temps falling into the low 50s west of Lake O and the 60s elsewhere.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Light and variable winds for the rest of the night will increase out of the south around 10 kts after 15-16Z. Outside chance for patchy dense fog for KAPF and KTMB late tonight through the early morning hours.

MARINE

Issued at 116 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

A gentle to moderate breeze is expected for the next few days and will shift from an easterly direction to a southerly direction later today. There remains no threat for showers through Saturday, leading to ongoing benign conditions. Seas are expected to be 1-2 feet or less across all local waters through this weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 116 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

There is a moderate risk for rip currents at the Palm beaches today with a low risk for the other beaches along the Atlantic coast. This moderate risk is expected to fall off this weekend and result in a low risk for all beaches over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 83 70 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 85 65 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 85 68 86 70 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 84 68 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 82 69 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 83 69 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 86 68 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 84 68 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 84 68 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 83 68 83 69 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.