textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 724 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Minor coastal flooding will remain possible during periods of high tide across all coastal areas of South Florida through Monday morning.

- Apparent temperatures in the low 100s will result in a Major HeatRisk for inland suburbs of South Florida today. Individuals sensitive to heat should exercise caution.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Pumpkin spice beverages simply won't suffice today as a flashback to summer-like conditions continues across South Florida. Something more tropical would be more appropriate as it would be on brand for the weather outside even as we enter mid October. Temperatures will remain above average (upper 80s) for this time of year, remaining in the low 90s for much of the afternoon hours outside of any convective cooling influences. While high temperature record values for today's date appear to be safe, the combination of dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, slackening surface winds out of a southerly direction, and a lack of widespread convection will result in heat indices (apparent temperatures) reaching the 100-105F range this afternoon. The prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk depicts a high (70- 90%) chance of Major HeatRisk across inland suburbs of South Florida today with a 100% probability of Moderate HeatRisk at coastal locations. Members of the the public who are sensitive to heat should limit prolonged exposure and take necessary precautions accordingly. As of 06z this morning, our overnight temperatures at coastal locations also remain well above average and close to the daily max minimum temperature for today's date. In large part this is due to a slight onshore component (SSErly) of surface winds, that still primarily remain out of a southerly direction across the region. Near max overnight temperatures and apparent temperatures in the low 100s today will bring little relief from the humidity and above average temperatures that will remain with us for the remainder of the weekend.

The vorticity of what was once Isaias has been completely absorbed by a expansive lobe of mid-level troughing over the eastern United States. Pressure falls along a triple point (occluded front, warm front, and cold front) to the south of the Appalachian Mountains signal the development of a forecasted new area of low pressure that will accelerate to the northeast, eventually bringing a frontal boundary into South Florida on Monday. In the meantime however, a plume of deep moisture out ahead of that weak frontal boundary remains in place across much of the Florida Peninsula with precipitable water values well above the 90th percentile for today's date. Aloft, the axis of mid to upper level ridging will briefly build into South Florida today with 500mb temperatures remaining on the warm side, between the 75th-90th percentile. Riveting technical factoids aside, the main item to takeaway from the mid-level ridge enhancement is a pocket of drier air aloft that will push westward into the eastern half of the region today. This already shows up quite nicely this morning on GOES East Mid-Level Water Vapor imagery. The mixing down of the drier air aloft in tandem with meager low and mid-level lapse rates may suppress most shower and thunderstorm activity across the eastern half of the region today. A precipitable water and dewpoint gradient is forecast to materialize across the region today with drier values across the southeastern half of the region and perceptible water values near the daily max across southwestern Florida which will be close in proximity to the frontal boundary. The latest forecast continues to feature the highest rain chances today (60-70%) across inland locales and the Lake Okeechobee region. Convective parameters once again appear lackluster with the main forecast concern remaining isolated swaths of 1-2" of rainfall in short periods of time.

As the mid-level trough pushes offshore of the northeastern United States, the stout mid-level ridge in place across the western Atlantic waters will flatten and lose influence over our region by Monday morning. The enhancement of a surface low offshore of the northeastern United States will provide enough forcing for the aforementioned frontal boundary across Central Florida and the Gulf to slowly slide southward across South Florida during the day on Monday. With all of the best dynamics now well removed from the region, convective activity on Monday is forecast to be much more sparse in nature. That being said, maximized ascent and residual moisture along the boundary could still set the stage for some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. High temperatures on Monday will rise into the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

As the boundary slides southward across the region Monday night into early Tuesday, a dry continental airmass will make a long- awaited return to South Florida. While this will not be a "cold" or even "cool" front by any metric (consider keeping the fall gear in the wardrobe for now), the change in the air will certainly be noticeable as we drop from forecasted dewpoints in mid to upper 70s on Monday to dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday. Even more remarkable will be the drop in precipitable water values, deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest a potential of seeing precipitable water values across South Florida below the 10% percentile for this time of year. No significant temperature change is expected behind this front during the daytime hours (forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and Wednesday) but a slight drop in overnight temperatures is forecast with the potential of low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across inland southwestern Florida on Tuesday morning.

The advertised reprieve from moisture will be a short lived one as the frontolytic boundary and envelope of associated moisture lift back across the region late Wednesday into Thursday as an expansive area of surface high pressure becomes established across the southeastern United States. Mid-level ridging briefly established across the southeastern United States during the early to mid portion of the work week will quickly flatten by Thursday as the next lobe of troughing slides eastward across the northern United States. As the positively tilted trough amplifies and digs across the eastern United States, a strengthening surface low will strengthen and push eastward in tandem. While this is at the tail end of the extended period, ensemble and deterministic model guidance depict the arrival of a frontal boundary in the vicinity of South Florida late in the work week into the upcoming weekend. Deep tropical moisture in the warm sector out ahead of the boundary could result in higher rain chances towards the end of the work week with drier and cooler weather behind it. For now however, it's still way too early to speculate on exact forecast details.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Morning shower activity has mostly dissipated across the eastern metro areas, but a few isolated showers may continue to pop up over the next couple of hours. As sea breezes begin to push inland, shower and storm activity will focus along interior South Florida. Some storm activity is already beginning to pop along the Gulf coast, so have included VCTS for KAPF for the late morning and early afternoon hours. Overall, VFR conditions will persist for all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Light southerly flow across the local waters of South Florida will veer northerly overnight in response to a frontal boundary that will push southwards across South Florida during the day on Monday. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions could be realized after daybreak on Monday as breezy northerly winds develop behind the boundary. Waves will remain 2-3 feet across the region through Monday afternoon with the caveat that locally higher waves and winds is possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity. One or two waterspouts remain possible ahead and along the frontal boundary as it moves southwards across the local waters on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 91 78 90 75 / 20 10 20 0 West Kendall 91 77 90 73 / 20 10 30 0 Opa-Locka 91 78 90 74 / 20 10 20 0 Homestead 91 77 90 74 / 10 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 90 77 88 74 / 20 10 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 88 74 / 20 10 20 0 Pembroke Pines 91 77 89 73 / 20 10 20 0 West Palm Beach 91 76 87 72 / 40 20 20 0 Boca Raton 90 77 87 73 / 30 10 20 0 Naples 87 75 88 69 / 50 10 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.