textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Dry and comfortable weather continues for the next few days.

- Above average temperatures continue into the end of the week with highs increasing to the mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

A weak flow pattern is maintained for the the end of this week as broad upper level ridging stays situated over the Florida Peninsula and Caribbean islands. Any modest moisture will be confined to the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but will not result in any shallow shower development as high pressure dominance and weak flow keeps conditons highly calm. Therefore, quiet and comfortable weather continues through the end of this week. High temperatures are expected in the low to mid 80s both today and Friday, which will be a few degrees above normal (upper 70s) for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

The mid-level ridge over the Caribbean and western Atlantic will eventually get pushed away from the area as a strengthening trough over the central and eastern U.S. breaks up into an overall elongated trough and a deeper shortwave forming over the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. An attendant cold front will advect southwards from this disturbance and ahead of its arrival the low level wind flow will shift to the south and southwest over the weekend, leading to an increase in moisture advection back into South Florida. As a result, with this cold front expected to be a more robust one compared to the last couple, the front will be able to lift this warm and moist air out ahead of it and increase the chances for some rain showers and thunderstorms mainly for the second half of Sunday as well as Monday. Despite the increase in moisture, model soundings this far out do suggest that there will not be an overwhelming amount of instability as the frontal passage occurs. Thus, most showers and storms that occur during this time frame could end up being of the garden variety with just a couple of heavier localized pockets. In general, not expecting much in the way of impactful weather with this system at this time and any total rainfall is not expected to cause major concerns.

Behind this frontal boundary, overall quiet weather returns for the end of the forecast period heading into the middle of next week as a substantially drier air mass returns once again to the region.

Temperatures for this weekend will be above normal in the mid to upper 80s as warm and moist southerly flow combined with ridging aloft will help to increase temps. For early next week, temperatures will drop into the 70s on Monday behind the aforementioned front and will struggle to rebound for a couple of days. Overnight lows will also get chillier behind the front with chances for most areas to fall into the 50s Monday night and Tuesday night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds early this morning will increase out of the east after 16z and will range between 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon hours. At KAPF, winds will shift and become SW after 18z as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

A gentle to lightly moderate easterly to northeasterly breeze is expected today and will shift southerly later on Friday. There is also no threat for rain showers, leading to overall benign conditions. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet in the Gulf and 2-3 feet in the Atlantic for the end of this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 71 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 83 66 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 83 69 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 83 70 83 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 80 70 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 70 83 69 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 83 69 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 80 68 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 82 69 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 83 66 83 68 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.