textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Slow moving shower and thunderstorm activity could result in additional urban flooding concerns today, especially where soils are saturated. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue today. - Rain chances will decrease on Friday and Saturday as a drier airmass moves into South Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

05z Mesoanalysis depicts a continued dewpoint and precipitable water gradient from north to south across the region early this morning as a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the Florida Keys at this hour. West of Lake Okeechobee, recent surface observations reveal dewpoints now in the low 60s, quite the comfortable night for June standards in South Florida. A much different experience continues across the southeastern extent of South Florida as dewpoints remain in the muggy low 70s. On the north side of the frontal boundary now over the Florida Keys, frictional convergence in tandem with a conducive saturated atmospheric profile (skinny CAPE and warm cloud layer) has resulted in the continued regeneration and advection of shower and thunderstorm activity onshore across portions of coastal and metro Miami-Dade and Broward counties. The slowing of surface winds along the coast has resulted in a trough of maximized convergence which has resulted in continued back-building of convection across these coastal urban areas. Although convection has waned compared to the earlier activity that resulted in 5-6 inches of rainfall across portions of northern Miami- Dade County; the atmosphere remains conducive for additional heavy rainfall and localized maxima of higher rainfall totals in the short term. The 00z HREF LPMM guidance depicts the highest chances of these higher localized swaths of heavy rainfall remaining across the southern half of the peninsula (below Alligator Alley/I-75) today. Any additional rainfall over already saturated grounds could result in additional localized flooding. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today, primarily across the east coast metro. Cloud cover and the continued northeasterly breeze is forecast to keep high temperatures below average across the eastern half of the region, topping into the low to mid 80s. Forecast high temperatures across coastal southwestern Florida will reach the mid to upper 80s as cloud cover is expected to be less prevalent there.

The departure of mid-level troughing across the nearby western Atlantic waters on Friday will usher in the development of mid-level ridging across the southeastern United States during this time frame. Ridging will also enhance at the surface across the southeastern United States during this time frame which will act to push the stalled frontal boundary over the Florida Keys and that envelope of deeper moisture further southwards, resulting in a further reduction of rain chances on Friday, mainly confined to far southern South Florida. High temperatures will begin on an upward trend on Friday as drier air and lower rain chances will result in forecasted temperature values peaking in the mid 80s to low 90s area- wide.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

As has been a continued trend over the past 48 hours, model guidance continues to resolve a slightly different mid to upper level pattern across the region during the upcoming weekend. Ensemble and deterministic guidance now highlight South Florida and much of the Florida Peninsula residing underneath a mid-level ridge of high pressure beginning on Saturday. Anticyclonic flow around this feature will result in what has been quite the persistent stream of mid-level vorticity aloft of the region finally pushing westward into the Gulf. At the surface, model guidance has also trended more bullish on much drier air being able to work down into the region on Saturday as the stalled frontal boundary slides further south into the Florida Straits. Forecast precipitable water values on Saturday now appear to be below average for the date which coincides with a noteworthy drop in the latest NBM's rain chances on Saturday afternoon (20-30% across coastal southwestern Florida). High temperatures are forecast to trend up on Saturday given the drier airmass in place suppressing any widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, with forecast high temp values ranging from the mid 80s along the east coast to low 90s across southwestern Florida.

The advection of the frontal boundary back into the region on Sunday will bring in deeper low level boundary moisture back into the region, and usher in higher afternoon rain chances. Although surface ridging is forecast to weaken during this period, surface background flow remaining out of an easterly direction will focus diurnal convection once again across the southwestern portion of the region on Sunday afternoon. High temperatures on Sunday will continue on the uptick, ranging from forecasted values in the upper 80s to low 90s across southeastern Florida and the low to mid 90s across the western half of the region.

The mid-level ridge axis is forecast to gradually slide westward and settle into the Gulf early on Monday as several lobes of mid-level vorticity transit across the central United States. Model guidance indicates the amplification of mid-level troughing over the northeastern United States acting to flatten the ridge late on Monday, with the advect on potential shortwaves into the region Tuesday into Thursday. At the surface, a frontal boundary is forecast to slide southward across the southeastern United States Tuesday into Wednesday, which may act to veer surface winds more out of a southerly to southwesterly direction across the region. Some model guidance members also show a surge of deep tropical moisture (near record precipitable water values based on climatological norms) from the Caribbean arriving across the region during this time frame. After a lull in more widespread heavy rainfall potential during the upcoming weekend, model guidance indicates the threat could once again return during the early to mid portion of next week. The latest NBM forecast now shows daily rain chances in the 70- 80% range across most of South Florida during this time frame.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Sub MVFR cigs and vis remain possible at southern east coast terminals over the next several hours as persistent development of SHRA/TSRA is occurring. Winds are forecast to remain out of a northeasterly to east-northeasterly direction for the remainder of today with erratic wind shifts possible at terminals in and around any SHRA/TSRA activity. Another round of SHRA/TSRA is possible across the region during the afternoon hours, have maintained VCTS in the TAF forecast at this update.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Breezy northeasterly to east-northeasterly surface flow will gradually lessen over the course of today as a pressure gradient weakens in intensity. Ongoing Small Craft Advisory conditions will lessen to Small Craft Exercise Caution thresholds by the morning/early afternoon hours across most of the nearshore waters with the exception of residual wave heights to Small Craft Advisory levels across the Atlantic waters. The combination of breezy northeasterly winds and the northeasterly swell will result in wave heights remaining in the 7-8 feet range across the Gulfstream waters through late this afternoon.

BEACHES

Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The combination of a continued northeasterly swell and breezy onshore surface winds over the next several days will result in a high risk of rip currents prevailing at all east coast beaches through the end of the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 74 85 75 / 40 20 20 10 West Kendall 84 72 86 72 / 50 30 30 10 Opa-Locka 84 74 86 75 / 40 20 20 10 Homestead 83 75 86 75 / 50 30 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 82 75 84 76 / 30 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 82 75 84 76 / 30 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 85 75 88 76 / 40 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 83 75 85 76 / 20 10 0 10 Boca Raton 83 76 85 77 / 30 10 10 10 Naples 87 72 89 73 / 50 20 40 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ651- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-676.