textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 707 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop through the evening hours across the Lake Okeechobee region and east coast metro areas.

- A moderate risk of rip currents remains in place for the Palm Beaches through the rest of the week.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Plenty of mid to upper level dry air continues to advect into the region this afternoon. This dry layer is shown clearly on the 18z KMFL sounding and it is currently helping to inhibit shower or thunderstorm development at this time. With a prevailing west northwesterly surface wind flow in place, the east coast sea breeze is having a tough time pushing inland this afternoon as it currently remains pinned along the immediate coast. The latest Hi- Res guidance continues to suggest that the east coast sea breeze will slowly push into the metro areas later this afternoon. At the same time, Hi-res guidance also continues to hint at the development of a very weak surface low over the Lake Okeechobee region during the late afternoon hours.

These two features may provide just enough lift needed to get some isolated shower or thunderstorm development later this afternoon into early this evening. While overall chances remain low, the best chance of thunderstorm development will be across the east coast metro areas and the Lake Okeechobee region where instability will remain highest. Any shower or thunderstorm that does develop will quickly diminish as the evening progresses due to loss of diurnal heating. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 60s across the interior portions of Southwest Florida to the mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

A decaying frontal boundary will continue to wash out as it sags southwards for the end of this week. As the boundary washes out and stalls over the Florida Straits, drier air (especially mid-level and upper-level dry air) will advect into the local atmosphere and create some inhibition for convection over the next several days. Thus, shower and thunderstorm development over land areas today will be a result of sea breeze development and convergence among boundaries. Overall, not expecting much in the way of strong showers or storms given the inhibiting factors at play, but an interesting feature looks to be the development of a surface low at some point later today and into tonight along the east coast. The development of this feature is shown on the short range guidance and may provide enough instability and surface vorticity for a quick spin-up as well as an isolated strong storm later this afternoon or evening. Otherwise, a more meager convective day is expected today in a large scale sense.

For Friday, the focus will be on this surface low propagating west- southwestwards across the southern Florida Peninsula and providing a source of lift to end the week. The mid-level and upper-level dry air will still inhibit storm growth on Friday, but the same factors will be in play that can cause an isolated strong storm or two and even a quick-spin up. High temps will remain above normal on Thursday and Friday ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across most areas.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

This weekend into next week will see upper level high pressure settling into the Gulf while an upper low will settle into the eastern Carribean. Surface high pressure will be anchored into the western Atlantic and expand over the SE U.S. while an upper level ridge simultaneously starts to build over the area. This will create a moderate easterly flow across South FL for much of the period. Convection will be more of a typical summertime pattern with diurnally driven storms during the afternoon and early evening hours each day, with the highest PoPs favoring inland and SW FL. For the overnight hours, coastal showers and isolated storms would be expected. PoPs are a touch higher than what we would expect to see for this time of year as some additional moisture is tapped into from the upper low over the eastern Carribean.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. A few showers may develop over the next few hours but mainly dry conditions should prevail into the morning hours. Light and variable flow overnight turning towards the east during the early afternoon. Guld breeze development is likely at APF during the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

A gentle to moderate west to northwest breeze is expected across the local waters today that will become more variable on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas, with higher chances for showers and storms being over the Atlantic waters. Atlantic seas for the end of this week are expected at 2-4 feet with Gulf seas at 2 feet or less.

BEACHES

Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

A moderate risk for rip currents is in effect for the Palm beaches today while elsewhere the risk should be on the lower side.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 75 89 77 88 / 10 20 10 40 West Kendall 70 91 73 90 / 10 20 10 40 Opa-Locka 75 90 76 89 / 20 20 10 40 Homestead 73 90 76 88 / 0 10 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 76 87 78 86 / 20 10 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 76 87 77 86 / 20 10 10 30 Pembroke Pines 76 92 78 91 / 20 20 10 40 West Palm Beach 76 87 77 86 / 20 10 10 20 Boca Raton 77 87 78 86 / 20 10 20 30 Naples 73 91 73 92 / 0 10 10 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.