textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Mainly dry conditions will remain in place today with moderating temperatures.

- Chances of showers will increase on Sunday out ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold temperatures return Sunday night into Monday morning behind the front.

- Hazardous marine conditions will return to the local waters behind the cold front later on Sunday and into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

South Florida will remain between a mid level ridge centered over the western Atlantic and an upstream positively tilted trough expanding southwestward from the Great Lakes region through portions of the Midwest and then into the Southern Plains. This trough will amplify as it expands southeastward through the Southeast and into the Gulf as well as the Florida Peninsula on Sunday.

At the surface, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across South Florida today as it shifts off into the western Atlantic bringing mainly dry conditions to the region. This will allow for the synoptic wind flow to remain rather light and it will veer to the east southeast as the day progresses. This will cause lower level moisture advection to take place as PWATs rise and range between an inch around the Lake Okeechobee region to 1.4 inches across the east coast metro areas by the end of the day. This could bring the possibility of just a brief shower to the east coast and Atlantic waters this afternoon. Any shower that does develop will remain very low topped and short lived. High temperatures today will moderate and they will rise into the mid to upper 70s across most areas.

Heading into Sunday, as the mid level trough sweeps into the region from the Gulf, another surface cold front will gradually push across the Florida Peninsula as the day progresses and this front should move through South Florida on Sunday afternoon. While chances of showers will increase out ahead of the front on Sunday, they will not be widespread, and they will be more isolated to scattered in nature as the front moves through. With the best dynamics and instability remaining well off to the north, thunderstorm chances will be practically non existent with this front. High temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to around 80 across most areas out ahead of the front. The exception to this will be west of Lake Okeechobee as well as the Southwest Florida coast where temperatures will rise into the mid 70s as the front pushes through these areas earlier.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Behind the aforementioned cold front, winds will increase out of the northwest on Sunday night which will allow for strong cold air advection to take place as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Low temperatures on Sunday night into early Monday morning will bottom out in the mid 30s west of Lake Okeechobee while the rest of Southwest Florida has low temperatures drop into the lower to mid 40s. Low temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s will be common across the east coast metro areas. When the northwesterly winds are factored in, there is a good chance of wind chill values dropping into the lower 30s west of Lake Okeechobee, with mid to upper 30s possible across the rest of Southwest Florida. Wind chill values could drop into the mid to upper 40s across the east coast metro areas on Sunday night into early Monday morning.

This strong and large surface area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida through the early to middle portion of the week bringing mainly dry conditions during this time frame. A moderate northerly wind flow on Monday will slowly veer and become more northeasterly heading into Tuesday and then east northeasterly on Wednesday. This will allow for a moderating trend in temperatures through the early portion of the week. While overnight lows on Tuesday and Wednesday morning will still remain on the cooler side, they will not be as cold as the lows on Monday morning due to cold air advection subsiding as the winds veer. High temperatures on Monday will remain below normal as they will range from the lower 60s west of Lake Okeechobee to the mid to upper 60s across the rest of the region. While high temperatures will still remain below normal on Tuesday as they rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s, they will get closer to normal by the middle of the week as mid to upper 70s will be common across most areas on Wednesday.

The forecast becomes more uncertain heading towards the second half of the week as the latest guidance shows the potential for a weak mid level shortwave to pass nearby as it moves across the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf. At the surface, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite is showing signals of the possibility of a broad area of low pressure developing in the Gulf and then rapidly sweeping this low across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic. The latest ECMWF guidance suite is more bullish in regards to the timing and strength of the developing area of low pressure than the GFS suite is, however, guidance does remain in relatively good agreement in passing the low off to the north. The latest forecast increases the chances of showers for Thursday and Friday as the low passes off to the north. This will continue to be watched as the week progresses as shifts in intensity and positioning of the low will have direct impacts on the forecast moving forward. High temperatures towards the end of the week will continue to moderate and are trending towards above climatological normals during this time frame.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the ESE after 18z and will range between 5 and 10 kts through the afternoon hours. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW after 18z as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A gentle east to southeasterly breeze will remain in place across most of the local waters through the first half of the weekend. Another cold front will approach and move through the local waters on Sunday and the chances of showers will increase out ahead of the front during this time frame. Behind the front, another round of hazardous marine conditions will be possible from Sunday afternoon into early next week across the local waters as winds and seas increase.

BEACHES

Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast Beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 64 81 52 / 10 10 30 10 West Kendall 77 60 81 50 / 10 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 77 63 81 52 / 10 10 30 10 Homestead 77 64 81 53 / 10 10 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 75 64 80 51 / 10 10 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 76 64 80 51 / 10 10 30 10 Pembroke Pines 77 62 81 51 / 10 10 30 10 West Palm Beach 76 62 80 48 / 10 10 20 10 Boca Raton 77 63 81 48 / 10 10 30 10 Naples 75 59 74 45 / 0 0 20 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.