textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 732 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Slow moving shower and thunderstorm activity could result in additional urban flooding concerns today, especially where soils are saturated and over poor drainage locations. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue today. - Heat indices will climb into the lower 100s for southwest Florida early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 204 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Surface analysis and mid-level water vapor imagery indicates that the frontal boundary has stalled over the Florida Keys, which will keep elevated chances of precipitation across South Florida through the rest of the afternoon. However, as troughing over the western Atlantic continues to push east, mid-level ridging will begin to build over the southeast CONUS and surface high pressure will strengthen over the southern Appalachians. This will result in a drier and more stable air mass pushing south into Florida over the next couple of days. Yet at this moment, quite a sharp moisture gradient still resides over the state. SPC mesoanalysis and ACARS soundings from around the region are showing that South Florida still remains under an anomalously moisture-rich airmass for this time of year, with PWATS in the 2 to 2.2 inch range. However, observations indicate that moisture quickly decreases as you head north, closer to the drier air and high pressure. In fact, sounding observations over north Florida show that PWATs have already dropped to below half an inch. The forecast PoPs reflect this moisture gradient, with highest chances of 70% to 80% over far southern Florida and the Florida Bay (where there is also better forcing from the boundary). PoPs decrease to 15% to 20% over the northern Everglades and below 10% near Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach.

Similar to yesterday, the tricky part about this afternoon's forecast is the fact that widespread cloud cover will once again hinder daytime heating and instability for strong convection. A mid- level low over the eastern Gulf is currently producing a complex of thunderstorms several hundred miles off the coast of Key West. While this system is expected to dissipate and move north and away from South Florida, it may be able to advect a few mid-level vorticity impulses over the region. The stationary front will remain the focus for scattered to numerous shower activity, but some of these vorticity features may serve to invigorate some stronger storm activity. Model soundings indicate a long and skinny CAPE profile with values up to 1200 J/kg, which should be plenty for efficient rainfall rates. With low shear and weak mid and low level lapse rates, storms are not expected to be too strong. Instead, with weak steering flow, slow moving storms will create more of a hydro threat for southeastern urban areas. HREF ensemble LPMMs continue to show 4 to 5 inch bullseyes along southern metro Miami-Dade, most likely driven by the HiRes-ARW and Hires-FV3 members which show as much as 7 inches in spots (more of a reasonable worst case scenario). Overall, 6 hour QPF probabilities of greater than 2 inches is around 40% for south Dade, so it is unlikely that most areas will see more than 2 to 3 inches. As a result, a Marginal risk of urban flooding exists, mainly affecting poor drainage areas and low lying locations. Lastly, some guidance (such as the HRRR) is once again showing some coastal convergence activity developing during the evening, this could keep the flood threat persisting into the overnight hours.

The chances of precipitation for Friday have really fallen off a cliff, with only 20 to 30% at most for far southern Florida. 24 hour HREF LPPMs are only showing rainfall amounts of 0.5" to 1" at most for the metro area. This drop in rain chances is in part due to the fact that the frontal boundary will continue to slide further south, while drier and more stable air fills into the region behind it. PWATs drop down to near average for this time of year and a drier mid-level layer should limit strong convection. Temperatures should climb into the mid 80s for eastern SoFlo and up to 90 over southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The start of the June 6-7 weekend should be quite nice for most of South Florida. Guidance continues to to trend drier, with PoPs topping out at around 15 to 25%. PWATs look to drop below one and a half an inches on Saturday, which would be below normal for this time of year. Mid level ridging will build over the peninsula through the weekend, with H5 heights climbing up to 590 dm. This will allow for high temperatures to climb back to average for early June, in the upper 80s and low 90s. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will strengthen over the Carolina coast, with anticyclonic flow continuing to usher in some drier air from the north. Overall, mostly sunny skies are expected across the region, but HeatRisk will remain minor across the majority of the region.

For the latter half of the weekend, the main upper level ridge axis begins to shift back westward over the Gulf. This will allow for a surge of moisture to climb back northward into Florida, with PWATs rising but up into the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range. This will result increased chances of precipitation along interior and southwest Florida. Most of this activity will be sea-breeze driven, but with stronger easterly flow prevailing, this should keep the Gulf breeze pinned further west. Temperatures look to climb a couple of degrees on Sunday, and with increased moisture over the region, heat indices will creep up into the lower 100s for southwest Florida.

The early to middle part of next week is trending wetter for most of South Florida. The mid-level ridge axis will continue to shift westward and flatten a little as troughing begins to slide over the Great Lakes region. This will open up a corridor for deeper moisture to make its way up into Florida, with some models showing PWATs climbing back over 2 inches for the middle of the week and above average for this time of year. Another frontal boundary looks to make its way south for the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe, which would likely lead to an increase in thunderstorm activity over the area. Overall, NBM has PoPs in the 60% to 80% range each afternoon through the middle of the week. Temperatures look to remain near average, but highest temperatures will be contingent on cloud cover and storm coverage during the afternoon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Periods of MVFR are still possible through around 02-03Z with passing showers. Then mainly VFR overnight with ENE winds around 8-10kt. Widespread broken to overcast cloud cover will continue tonight but ceilings should remain at VFR. Periods of gusty winds to around 20-25kt are again possible after 15Z.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Breezy northeasterly to east-northeasterly surface flow will gradually lessen over the course of today as a pressure gradient weakens in intensity. Ongoing Small Craft Advisory conditions will lessen to Small Craft Exercise Caution thresholds by the morning/early afternoon hours across most of the nearshore waters with the exception of residual wave heights to Small Craft Advisory levels across the Atlantic waters. The combination of breezy northeasterly winds and the northeasterly swell will result in wave heights remaining in the 7-8 feet range across the Gulfstream waters through late this afternoon.

BEACHES

Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The combination of a continued northeasterly swell and breezy onshore surface winds over the next several days will result in a high risk of rip currents prevailing at all east coast beaches through the end of the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 84 74 86 / 40 10 10 10 West Kendall 71 85 71 88 / 40 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 74 86 74 88 / 30 10 10 10 Homestead 75 84 75 87 / 50 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 76 84 76 86 / 20 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 75 84 75 85 / 10 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 76 87 76 89 / 20 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 75 85 75 86 / 0 10 0 0 Boca Raton 76 84 76 86 / 0 10 0 10 Naples 73 89 72 91 / 20 20 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.