textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 215 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions will develop today across the Gulf waters as southeast winds increase and swell from Hurricane Isaias builds.

- Minor coastal flooding will be possible across the coastal areas during each high tide cycle today and into the first part of the weekend due to King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day heading into the upcoming weekend. The highest chances will remain across the interior as well as the Lake Okeechobee region each afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

A strengthening mid level ridge centered in the western Atlantic will continue to gradually build towards South Florida today through Saturday. At the same time, Hurricane Isaias will continue to push northward throughout the day, eventually making landfall sometime late tonight into early Saturday along the northern Gulf Coast. As Hurricane Isaias moves northward today, this will help to drag the frontal boundary that has been stalled out over Central Florida during the past couple of days northward, and away from the region. The pressure gradient across the region will tighten today, which will create a breezy and gusty southeasterly wind flow across South Florida as the day progresses.

While the influence of the frontal boundary rapidly decreases across the region today, additional moisture will be pulled up from the south which will help to gradually erode a pocket of drier air that moved into the region during early morning hours. This additional moisture advection that will occur today will help to increase the PWATs as they will range between 2.0 and 2.2 inches across most areas this afternoon. With ridging building in aloft, convective activity will be sea breeze driven and more scattered in nature than it has been over the past several days. With a breezy and gusty southeasterly synoptic wind flow, the highest chances of convection will remain over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region during the afternoon and evening, however, some isolated activity cannot be ruled out over the east coast metro areas, especially earlier in the afternoon. High temperatures today will generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Moving into tonight and Saturday, mid level ridging will continue to build into the region from the western Atlantic during this time frame, while Isaias gradually moves across the Deep South as Saturday progresses. With South Florida still remaining on the western periphery of the mid level ridge, this will create a deep southerly wind flow over the area across the mid to upper levels, while a breezy and gusty southeasterly flow remains in place at the surface. This will help to keep advecting deep tropical moisture over the region throughout Saturday. While this moisture will help to increase chances of showers and thunderstorm area wide during this time frame, the steering flow and gusty winds at the surface will provide for rather fast storm motion. This general flow from south to north will also focus the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms back up along and north of Alligator Alley as the afternoon progresses. While strong thunderstorm chances will remain rather limited, they cannot be entirely ruled out especially across the Lake Okeechobee region. The strongest storms in the afternoon across those areas could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures on Saturday will range from around 90 across the east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The weather pattern across the region will gradually start to change heading into the second half of the weekend and into Monday as mid level ridging in the western Atlantic expands over South Florida and then into the eastern Gulf during this time frame. At the same time, the remnants of Isaias will rapidly move northeastward across the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic states on Sunday before starting to push off the Mid-Atlantic Coastline on Sunday night into Monday. Mid level wind flow across South Florida will gradually begin to shift and become more westerly on Sunday and into most of Monday. This will introduce some drier air working into the mid levels especially on Sunday as subsidence enhances across the region due to the ridging aloft.

At the surface, southeasterly winds will gradually weaken on Sunday and become more easterly as the day progresses. The frontal boundary associated with the remnant surface low of Isaias will also remain draped over Central Florida during this time frame. While there will be enough moisture in the lower levels to support convective development, the highest chance will remain confined to the interior and Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours with southeasterly surface wind flow in place. While strong thunderstorm development will remain rather limited, an isolated strong storm or two cannot be completely ruled out, potentially producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures on Sunday will generally rise into the lower 90s across most areas. Heading into Monday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will slowly push across South Florida, however, it will not have a lot of moisture to work with at this time as it will be in a weakening state, and the best dynamics will be well to the northeast of the region. With some lower level moisture lingering over the area, some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible as the front pushes through. High temperatures on Monday will rise into the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading towards Tuesday and Wednesday, a much drier air mass will push into the region behind the front as high pressure builds back into the area. This will keep chances of showers and storms extremely limited during this time frame, and with the drier air and lower dewpoints anticipated, there will be a noticeable drop in humidity during the middle of the week. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will still remain above climatological normals for this time of year.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Breezy SE winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts will continue through this afternoon, before diminishing to around 8 kts overnight. Winds will increase again to 10-15 kts out of the SSE after 10Z tomorrow. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into this evening, with scattered showers possible during the early morning hours tomorrow. Confidence in thunderstorm development near most sites tomorrow remains too low to include in this cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will develop over the Gulf waters today as a fresh to strong southeasterly breeze pushes over the region. Across the Atlantic waters, a moderate southeasterly breeze will remain in place today, however, hazardous conditions could develop tonight and Saturday as winds potentially become fresh to strong during this time frame. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range between 3-5 feet today into Saturday while seas across the Gulf waters will range from 4 to 7 feet due to increasing swells from Hurricane Isaias. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters through Saturday.

BEACHES

Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

As onshore flow increases, a high risk of rip currents will develop across the Palm Beaches today. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across all other Atlantic Coast beaches as well as the Collier County beaches today. The rip current risk may increase heading into the weekend across all Atlantic Coast beaches as onshore flow increases. Minor coastal flooding will remain possible across the coastal areas during each high tide cycle today and into the first part of the weekend due to King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 90 80 90 / 40 40 20 10 West Kendall 79 90 79 90 / 30 40 20 20 Opa-Locka 79 91 80 91 / 40 40 20 20 Homestead 79 91 80 90 / 40 40 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 80 90 / 40 50 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 40 50 40 20 Pembroke Pines 79 90 80 90 / 40 50 30 20 West Palm Beach 78 90 79 90 / 40 60 40 30 Boca Raton 80 90 80 90 / 40 60 40 20 Naples 78 89 78 89 / 30 50 50 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ069-168.

AM...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.