textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 551 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Below average temperatures and dry weather are in the forecast for all of South Florida today. - Breezy northwesterly winds will result in cautionary to hazardous marine conditions across the local Gulf & Atlantic waters through late this morning. - A prolonged period of dangerous marine and beach conditions may occur across the region beginning early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 114 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

We have already begun to feel the arrival of a crisp, continental air mass across South Florida early this morning as a cold front, currently located just south of the Florida Keys and west of Andros Island, has ushered in much drier conditions in its wake with dew points having dropped into the 50s across practically all of South Florida and into the 60s across the Keys. Looking at the large-scale synoptic pattern, a deep and profound trough is churning over the eastern U.S. with 500-mb height anomalies near its base falling within the 0.5 and minimum climatological percentiles for the date according to the NAEFS (combination of 31 GEFS and 21 GEPS members). The REFS has these anomalies a tad bit higher within the whopping 1st percentile for climatology, but clearly an anomalously strong trough that is near or at record intensity for Mid-November standards. Over the central U.S. and extending northward into Central Canada, an equally vigorous upper-level ridge of high pressure with 500-mb geopotential heights lying within the maximum climatological percentile for the date according to NAEFS and near the 99th percentile as per the REFS has helped to aid the climatical augmentation of the downstream trough.

Just off the coast of New England, both the NT (nighttime) microphysics ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager) satellite band as well as the latest ASCAT 25km descending pass reveal a counterclockwise- swirling area of surface low pressure within the existing low-level cumulus field that has developed beneath bountiful upper-level divergence within the left exit region of a screaming jet streak that features wind speeds aloft of 140-170 kts, which is above the 99th percentile on both the REFS and NAEFS CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) 1979-2009 climatology. With this low pressure system is an attendant cold front that can be observed extending down along the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. into north-central Florida and stretching into the northern Gulf. This feature is difficult to identify via RTMA surface winds, but can be more easily pinpointed through a locally tight isodrosothermic gradient that is derived by mesoscale surface parameters in and around north-central Florida. As previously mentioned, although we have already noticed an intrusion of drier, cooler air here in South Florida from the passage of our initial strong cold front that is now situated to our south, this secondary boundary will gradually work its way down the rest of the Florida peninsula and ultimately help bring a reinforcing shot of arid, refreshing air from the continent. This is supported by high resolution model guidance that illustrates a secondary push of lower, 40-degree dew points arriving at the Lake Okeechobee region shortly before or around daybreak today and later overspreading the rest of South Florida into the afternoon hours.

We will be waking up to temperatures generally in the widespread 50s across South Florida today. Probabilities of achieving lows below 50 degrees to the west of Lake Okeechobee have dropped on both the National Blend of Models (NBM) and the LREF from around 30-35% and 35-40% yesterday to 25-30% and 20-25% today, respectively. High temperatures will be up to 10 degrees below average for this time of year, only climbing into the mid to upper 60s across Lake Okeechobee and interior portions of South Florida and into the low 70s across both of our west and east coast metros. Infrared (IR) satellite observations this morning insist that although we have little to no low-level clouds present across South Florida, we have continued to have a recurrence of mid to upper-level clouds as they stream into the peninsula from southwest to northeast along our persistently strong subtropical jet stream flow aloft. Forecast RAP soundings via the SPC mesoanalysis page that go out through the next 6 hours show an acute amount of dry air in the vertical column with some upper- level saturation still associated with the nearby presence of the moist subtropical jet. Subsequently proceeding with the operational RAP and other mesoscale models such as the HRRR and surprisingly the rejuvenated version of the NAM (now recognized as the "WOOF-NAM"), it is determined that this immensely dry layer within the first 5 kilometers of the atmosphere or so will stay in place throughout the day Saturday with at least some form of lingering mid to upper-level saturation at or around 6 kilometers. With northwesterly winds this morning expected to veer generally out of the north at around 5-15 mph later today (and thus removing any maritime influence of cloud advection), we are not expecting many clouds of the "puffy" variety (cumulus), but rather of the wispy, feathery kind in the form of perhaps alto or cirrus clouds. Nonetheless, plenty of sunshine will be expected across South Florida today with Fall in full effect. PWATs will be as low as 0.4-0.7" (which are below the 10th percentile) regionwide, so to say we are dry is an understatement. All in all, we shouldn't even be thinking about rain in the slightest.

A second injection of upper-level dry air on Sunday will look to thrust the moist conveyor belt that is the subtropical jet far enough to the south to where we will lose this saturation in the mid to upper-levels and inversely increase our low-level moisture content ever-so-slightly with our surface flow quickly veering off the ocean again and becoming east-northeasterly. This will be in response to a ridge axis of continental high pressure shifting eastward from the Mid to Upper-Missisissippi River Valley today closer to the vicinity of the Midwest. We will also see an intensification of this surface ridge, with MSLPs around much of the Midwest and Great Lakes region rising to values greater than 10 hPa above normal as per CFSR 1981-2010 climatology. This places it within the 95th and 90-97th percentiles according to the REFS and NAEFS, respectively.

This wind shift will not occur, however, until Sunday afternoon, meaning that with the continuation of light northerly flow into Sunday morning, we should be expecting low temperatures to remain chilly for South Florida standards. With this overall flow pattern inherently favoring peninsular drainage across South Florida as the pre-existing cooler air further north is able to filter down into our region more effectively, we are forecasting lows to be a few degrees colder around Lake Okeechobee and over Southwest Florida. There could be some lingering high cloud cover as per high-res mesoscale model guidance that could slightly prevent maximum radiational cooling from occurring, but nonetheless we are foreseeing Sunday wake-up temperatures to drop into the upper 40s west of Lake O and low to mid 50s over the interior and Southwest Florida. Our east coast metros will be experiencing lows similar to this morning's, in the upper 50s/low 60s. With our aforementioned surface wind flow shifting to an east-northeasterly direction for Sunday afternoon, our high temperatures, as a result, will begin to moderate and climb back to just slightly below average values into the mid to upper 70s mainly area-wide to near 80 degrees over the southern half of our region. Rightfully excluding the minimal amount of low-level moisture that we could achieve on Sunday with this onshore wind component, it should be another gorgeous day across South Florida with just a few shallow-layer cumulus clouds (yes, the puffy kind!) streaming in from the Atlantic throughout the day. Goose eggs in the way of PoPs should again be the expectation across our region with PWATs slowly climbing back into the 0.7 to 1" range but still remaining within the 20th and 30th percentiles for the date.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 114 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

OVERVIEW...

Blustery weather is on tap for South Florida during much of the upcoming work week as a collection of atmospheric features set the stage for a prolonged period of gusty northeasterly flow. Outside of quick moving shower activity and gusty conditions across the land areas of South Florida proper, a prolonged duration of dangerous marine (Atlantic, Gulf, and Biscayne Bay waters) and beach conditions (Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties) could materialize across our local waters and coastal portions of South Florida for much of the work week.

EARLY WORK WEEK...

The full suite of ensemble and deterministic model guidance remain steadfast in depicting a robust mid-level shortwave accelerating southeastward from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and eventually across the northern Gulf Coast during the day on Monday. The orientation of the sub-tropical jet stream and a maxima of upper-level divergence out ahead of the short-wave axis continues to be resolved by model guidance in initiating the development of an area of surface low pressure across the western Gulf waters during this time frame. While this feature is forecast to remain well to the west of South Florida on Monday, a strengthening pressure gradient (Between the surface low in the western Gulf and surface high across the eastern contiguous United States) is still being depicted by model guidance to result in gusty conditions and gradual moisture advection into the region on Monday. While the airmass over South Florida will still be in the process of moderating, gusty NErly to ENErly flow will support the threat of low-topped shower activity moving onshore along the east coast of South Florida during the afternoon hours. Forecasted high temperatures will also continue on an gradual upward trajectory with forecast high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.

As the mid-level shortwave slides southeastward across the northeastern Gulf waters on Tuesday, the accompanying area of surface low pressure is modeled to do so in tandem, moving briskly across the central Gulf waters. The overall trend has definitely been in a favorable direction (for us here in South Florida) over the past 48 hours as the majority of model solutions have remained firm in maintaining a more southern trajectory of the mid-level shortwave. This has had direct implications in keeping the track of the associated surface low and frontal boundaries also further to the south of our region. Ensemble guidance (ECMWF, GEFS, and CMCE) has also come into better agreement as far as timing and placement of the shortwave as variance between 500mb EOF clusters has continued to decrease. This southward shift in the track of the surface low has resulted in lower forecasted precipitation amounts across South Florida as deterministic, ensemble mean, and ensemble clusters all now depict the highest precipitation amounts through Tuesday night; mainly confined to the eastern Gulf waters and across the northwestern Bahamas as opposed to the land areas of South Florida.

MID TO LATE WORK WEEK...

By Wednesday, the axis of the aforementioned mid-level shortwave is forecast to elongate and reside across the western Atlantic waters. A poleward jet-streak is depicted by model guidance to remain over the western Atlantic waters & northwestern Bahamas, with the right entrance region (upper level divergence & low level convergence) residing in the same general vicinity. What had been relatively good agreement in model guidance up until this point, finally splits in conceptual thought with different solutions. The GEFS & deterministic GFS show the resultant development and deepening of a surface low pressure system underneath the jet-streak across the northwestern and central Bahamas, with the feature accelerating to the northeast during the remainder of the work week. Alternatively, the ECWMF & ECENS depict a continuation of surface ridging (no sign of surface low development) across the western Atlantic waters with periodic surface wind surges out of the northeast. Uncertainty remains high during this period as these different model solutions vary greatly. The development of a surface low (GFS/GEFS solution) to our southeast could usher in a reinforcing surge of continental dry air via cyclonic northerly surface flow as it lifts further away from the region which may act to preclude any potential of higher forecasted rain chances. This will continued to be evaluated as we approach the mid to late week period. The modification of the airmass in place across South Florida is forecast to continue which will result in a continuation of a gradual warming trend across the region with maximum temperatures forecast to reach the low to mid 80s each afternoon during the mid to late week period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR through the 12Z period. NW winds around 10 kts with NNE winds expected at APF. Light and variable tonight and overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 114 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

A fresh to strong northwesterly wind flow will be in place across the Atlantic waters this morning, decreasing to a gentle to moderate breeze during the afternoon hours and continuing into Sunday. A moderate to fresh northerly wind flow will be in place across the Gulf waters, becoming a northeasterly wind across all local waters on Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic waters today will be between 4-7 feet with seas across the Gulf waters remaining in the 2-4 feet range. Seas decrease to 3-5 feet across the Atlantic on Sunday and to 2-3 feet across the Gulf but increase once again into early next week as winds increase across the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 60 79 69 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 73 59 80 67 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 73 59 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 74 60 80 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 72 60 78 69 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 71 59 79 68 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 73 58 80 67 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 71 58 78 67 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 71 59 78 68 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 71 55 78 62 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.