textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across portions of South Florida through the early portion of the week.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase during the second half of the week as a strong cold front approaches and moves through the region. Behind the front, the coolest airmass of the season so far could push over the region by next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Weak mid level ridging in the Eastern Gulf will gradually move over the region today and into Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure centered off to the north will continue to slowly push eastward during this time frame. These two features will be the ones driving the weather pattern over South Florida through the early portion of the week. In general, rather light easterly winds will prevail across most areas today and Tuesday. This easterly wind flow will aid in lower level moisture advection during this time frame which will cause PWAT values to slowly and gradually rise across South Florida. While plenty of dry air will remain in place across the mid levels, there will be just enough lower level moisture in place to support a low end chance of shower development each afternoon. Shower chances will be mainly driven by the development of the sea breezes each afternoon. Any showers that do develop will remain low topped, however, some of the stronger shower activity will have the potential to produce brief heavy downpours, especially over areas where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundary collisions take place. High temperatures today and Tuesday will rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas, however, upper 80s will be possible across portions of Southwest Florida each afternoon mainly along and south of Alligator Alley.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 316 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

While the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will be the primary mechanism behind the prevailing weather pattern across South Florida this winter, the upcoming pattern later this week is a good reminder that it is not the only contributor to local climate variability. The combination of the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will result in the advection and progression of an amplified trough across the eastern United States with below average geopotential height and 500mb temperature anomalies gradually shifting from the Ohio River Valley into the Mid- Atlantic during the second portion of the week. As the mid to upper level trough axis slides eastward, efficient cold air advection (CAA) will advect a polar airmass (albeit one that was heavily modified in transit) into the southeastern United States. This is a important distinction from a conventional El Nino setup, which would favor the arrival of a Pacific airmass as opposed to an origination point in the Arctic circle. The gradual propagation of surface high pressure and lessening surface wind speeds is forecast to result in a northwesterly flow regime at the surface during the upcoming weekend, as a 1020-1025mb surface high gradually slides across the southeastern United States. While exact forecasted ambient temperature values will certainly fluctuate over the next several days, 2m temperature anomalies across South Florida are currently forecast to be roughly 10 to 15 degrees below average for this time of year during the upcoming weekend. Before we delve further into exact details for the upcoming cold snap and get ahead of ourselves, let's rewind a bit to the mid-week period.

By Wednesday, a zonal orientation of the sub-tropical jet stream is forecast to orient west to east across the northern Gulf as the axis of a negatively tilt trough gradually drops southward across the central United States. A shortwave out ahead of the main trough axis will remain to the north of South Florida as it quickly propagates across the southeastern United States. This will result in a veering of 500mb winds to a southwesterly component on Wednesday in tandem with cooling 500mb temperatures and steeper mid-level lapse rates. At the same time, South Florida is forecast to reside between two lobes of surface ridging (one located over the northern Gulf waters and one located to our east over the western Atlantic waters), which will result in light southerly to southwesterly background flow prevailing on Wednesday afternoon. This forecasted flow regime would favor inland locales of southeastern Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region with a caveat that brisk westerly winds aloft could result in convection drifting convection back towards the east coast during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Similar to the previous discussion, While chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain rather low, it cannot be entirely ruled out especially where mesoscale boundary collisions take place and maximized ascent occurs. The strongest thunderstorm activity could contain heavy downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and gusty winds. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas, however, some upper 80s will be possible across portions of Southwest Florida.

By Thursday, the subtropical and polar jet-streams are forecast to phase into a combined jet-streak across the southeastern United States. Upper level divergence associated with this dual phasing (right entrance region of the jet-streak) will result in the development of a surface low pressure system offshore of the Mid- Atlantic which is forecast to deepen in tandem with the synoptic injection of dynamics directly overhead. This strengthening low level feature is forecast to accelerate to the north but not before dragging an antecedent cold front southwards across the Florida Peninsula, Thursday night into Friday. A pressure gradient between the frontal boundary as well as a surface area of high pressure will result in breezy flow behind the frontal boundary as northwesterly surface winds enhance. While slight discrepancies still remain in ensemble and deterministic guidance (ECENS, GEFS, GFS, ECMWF), the main takeaway is that frontal boundary timing will dictate what transpires forecast wise on Friday. A quicker progression of the frontal boundary (which the ECMWF and ECENS has hinted at) will suppress instability across the region, which could hinder shower and thunderstorm development along the boundary as it moves across South Florida during the overnight hours. A slower progression may result in more diurnal heating out ahead of the boundary which could support a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Friday.

Cold air advection behind the frontal boundary will result in a comfortable and cool weekend across South Florida. Perfect for enjoying pumpkin spice beverages and anything cozy. While it remains to be seen if the current forecasted temperatures (low 50s across coastal southwestern Florida and upper 50s along the east coast) for Saturday and Sunday morning verify, the last time minimum temperatures below 60F were observed across South Florida was mid to late March of this year.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

L/V winds are forecast at all terminals overnight with decreasing isolated SHRA, mainly across inland areas south of Alligator Alley. Surface winds are forecast to veer onshore during the afternoon on Tuesday, veering out of the ESE/SE direction at east coast terminals and Wrly at KAPF. Confidence for SHRA is too low to include VCSH in the TAFs at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

A gentle to moderate east northeasterly breeze will gradually become more easterly as the early portion of the week progresses across most of the local waters. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters where winds may become more northwesterly this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 1 to 3 feet through the early portion of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Some isolated to scattered shower activity will remain possible mainly over the Atlantic waters through the early portion of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for the Palm Beaches through the early portion of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 84 74 85 / 20 10 10 40 West Kendall 73 85 73 85 / 20 20 20 40 Opa-Locka 73 85 73 86 / 20 10 10 40 Homestead 75 84 74 85 / 20 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 74 83 73 84 / 20 10 10 40 N Ft Lauderdale 73 83 73 84 / 20 10 10 40 Pembroke Pines 73 85 73 86 / 20 10 10 40 West Palm Beach 72 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 50 Boca Raton 73 83 73 84 / 10 10 10 40 Naples 71 85 72 84 / 10 10 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.