textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 650 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms today will focus mainly across Southeast Florida. - Heavy rainfall today in Southeast Florida could lead to pockets of localized flooding across urban and poor drainage areas along the east coast.

- Strong winds with the incoming frontal boundary is expected to lead to increasingly hazardous marine and beach conditions, with elevated seas and near Gale force wind gusts beginning tonight and into early this coming week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 434 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

A deep upper-level trough progressing eastward across the Eastern US will drive a surface frontal boundary toward South Florida today, establishing an increasingly unsettled weather pattern across the region. The combination of abundant moisture, enhanced ascent, and southwesterly steering flow will support the development of numerous to showers and thunderstorms across the East Coast. Furthermore, vorticity impulses rounding the base of the trough will provide additional ascent.

Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are forecast along the East Coast, with 0.5-1 inch expected elsewhere across South Florida. HREF LPMM guidance indicates the potential of locally higher amounts of up to 6-8 inches along the East Coast, supported by several individual ensemble members. Given the potential for slow- moving or repeated rounds of convection, pockets of localized flooding will be possible, particularly across urban and poor- drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center has included most of the east coast metro areas in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall, highlighting the potential for rainfall rates and accumulations to exceed local flash flood guidance, which ranges anywhere from 4-6 inches in a 3 to 6 hour period.

The frontal boundary is expected to stall across the Florida Straits through at least Sunday. While PWATs are forecast to decrease on Sunday, lingering moisture and the proximity of the boundary will maintain elevated rain chances across the Atlantic waters and southernmost portions of the peninsula. A tightening pressure gradient behind the front will support increasing northeasterly flow across the region, which may lead to some frictional convergence showers beginning Sunday despite deep moisture beginning to decrease.

High temperatures today will range from the lower to mid 80s near Lake Okeechobee to the upper 80s across southern portions of the peninsula. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s across SW Florida and the lower to mid 70s across the East Coast. Cooler temperatures are expected Sunday, with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s across South Florida.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 434 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The frontal boundary remains projected to pass through the area by Sunday night while also degrading in the process. This boundary will eventually stall over the Florida Straits while diffusing completely early this coming week. With moisture levels dropping closer to average to below average in some areas, rain chances will lower significantly to below 20% for most of interior and SW Florida as drier air arrives in the wake of the front. Strong surface high pressure will re-develop as the low off the coast of the Carolinas begins to advect offshore and shift more towards the Mid-Atlantic on, which will create a stout pressure gradient that could last into the mid-week time frame. Breezy winds are expected out of the NE with wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible through Tuesday night and potentially a portion of Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the pressure gradient should be weakened enough for much less breezy conditions. Even with the breezy and gusty winds early this week, they should stay below Wind Advisory levels.

The other important aspect of the long term forecast period relates to any rain potential through the end of the week. While drier air filters in with the passing of the frontal boundary, strong northeasterly winds over the local waters will be present in combination with slower wind speeds over land, which can result in isolated to scattered frictional convergence showers forming along the coast. This process is likely to be the main driver in any rain shower or storm development through the end of the week, but is not expected to produce impactful rainfall or thunderstorms. Instead, most of the activity should be of the meager variety. We will continue to monitor trends in case a more impactful develops for heavy rainfall. High temperatures will fall to the low to mid 80s each day in the wake of the front. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 60s near the lake region to the low to mid 70s elsewhere on Monday night, then fall into the 60s across the entire region Tuesday night through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

L/V winds expected to increase to 6-8 kts out of the NNW today across all terminals, veering to the NNE by early evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected near the east coast sites between 22Z-01Z. Sub-VFR ceilings are possible this evening in association with the frontal passage, however, confidence remains too low to include these conditions in the current TAF cycle. Winds are expected to increase above 10 kts toward the end of the TAF period as the pressure gradient strengthens behind the front.

MARINE

Issued at 434 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Light southwesterly winds will gradually shift to moderate north- northeasterly winds this evening as a frontal boundary approaches the region, with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected across all local waters. Marine conditions will deteriorate further overnight as winds strengthen behind the front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to develop this evening and persist through the weekend. Strong winds, with gusts just below gale force, are expected on Sunday, accompanied by building seas of 8-12 ft across the Atlantic waters. Scattered showers and isolated storms will also remain possible over the Atlantic waters on Sunday.

BEACHES

Issued at 434 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

A high risk for rip currents will develop overnight tonight and last into early this coming week as strong winds and elevated seas develop with a frontal boundary passing through the area. In addition, high surf conditions are expected to develop by late Sunday night and into the new week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 75 83 75 / 90 70 80 40 West Kendall 88 74 83 74 / 90 60 70 30 Opa-Locka 88 74 83 74 / 90 70 70 40 Homestead 88 75 84 75 / 90 70 80 50 Fort Lauderdale 87 74 82 75 / 90 80 80 40 N Ft Lauderdale 87 74 83 75 / 90 80 70 40 Pembroke Pines 88 73 83 74 / 90 70 70 40 West Palm Beach 86 73 82 74 / 80 90 60 30 Boca Raton 87 73 83 74 / 90 80 80 40 Naples 84 69 83 70 / 80 40 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Monday night for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ610-650-670.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ630-651-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676.