textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

- Temperatures will gradually continue to moderate through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

- Dry conditions will remain in place across the region through the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Mid level zonal flow will start to gradually give way to weak mid level troughing over the region today and Friday. The mid level trough will be amplifying during this time frame, however, since the trough axis will be offshore in the western Atlantic, this will shift the mid level flow to a northwesterly direction. At the surface, a strong and large area of high pressure will remain parked over the Southeastern portion of the country heading into Friday. The northwesterly wind flow aloft combined with strong surface high pressure will allow for the dry air mass to remain in place through the rest of the week. The latest global and ensemble guidance reflects this nicely as PWAT values generally hover between 0.3 inches west of Lake Okeechobee to 0.8 inches further to the south today. Some slow lower level moisture advection will take place on Friday, however, it will still remain too dry over all to support any shower activity as PWAT values will range between 0.7 and 0.9 inches on Friday afternoon.

Northeasterly wind flow will remain in place today and Friday which will support the continuation of the moderating trend in high temperatures during this time frame. High temperatures today will generally rise into the upper 70s across most areas while highs on Friday rise into the upper 70s across the Lake region to the lower 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Heading into the upcoming weekend, the latest global and ensemble model suite remains in a bit of disagreement in regards to a potential mid level shortwave impulse pushing close to, if not over the region on Saturday. The ECMWF guidance suite is more pronounced with a stronger and faster shortwave pushing through South Florida while the GFS guidance suite is slower and more progressive with it remaining offshore. At the surface, this will create the possibility of a weak backdoor frontal boundary passing through the region sometime on Saturday. These two features will not have much in the way of an impact on the sensible weather as the dry air mass already in place will hold strong. A brief passing shower or two cannot be ruled out on Saturday, however, that will be the exception as most areas will remain dry. As this front stalls out to the south, high pressure behind the very weak frontal boundary will center over the Florida Peninsula later on Saturday before starting to shift into the western Atlantic on Sunday. This will allow for the mainly dry conditions to continue through the rest of the weekend. Winds will become more easterly on Saturday, before becoming rather light and sea breeze driven on Sunday. This will allow for the warming trend to continue into the weekend as highs rise into the lower 80s each day, however, there could be some locations across the interior that rise into the mid 80s on Sunday.

Moving into early next week, the mid level pattern looks to remain zonal through Monday, however, a strengthening mid level ridge centered over the Southwest Gulf may try push eastward towards South Florida heading into Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida during this time frame bringing mainly dry conditions to the region. With lower level moisture advection continuing and PWATs rising, the only exception to this will be the possibility of a brief, isolated shower or two along the breeze from time to time. High temperatures early next week will remain in the lower to mid 80s on Monday, however, they may rise into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the NE after 15z and will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon hours. At KAPF, winds may become more northerly late in afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

A moderate northeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters through the rest of the week. These winds will slowly begin to subside during the first half of the weekend as they shift and become more easterly. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 2-4 feet through the rest of the week and into the first half of the weekend while seas across the Gulf generally range from 1-3 feet during this time frame.

BEACHES

Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the rest of the week as onshore flow persists.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 64 80 67 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 79 60 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 79 63 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 77 63 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 77 64 79 68 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 77 64 79 68 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 80 64 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 77 63 80 67 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 79 64 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 79 57 81 60 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.