textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect today for Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Collier Counties.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon, focused over the interior and Southwest Florida.

- Persistent easterly winds will maintain an elevated Rip Current risk along the Atlantic beaches to start the work week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 126 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Current mid-level water vapor imagery indicates that a drier airmass is currently making its way cross the Caribbean and into South Florida. Aircraft data from KMIA, KFLL, and KRSW all show a relatively dry atmospheric profile, with the most pronounced dry layer being in the 800 to 500 mb range. PWATs across the region are ranging between 1.5 and 1.7 inches, within the 25th percentile for this time of year. Deep layered ridging, extending from the western Atlantic into Florida at both the surface and aloft, will continue to dominate the wind regime over the next few days. Light to breezy east to southeast winds will keep the highest chances of precipitation along the Gulf breeze. Overall, drier air and subsidence will keep PoPs on the lower end across most of the region. With little forcing available, most convection will be quick pop-up thunderstorms that develop along outflow and sea- breeze boundary collisions over interior and Southwest Florida. However, chances are only at around 25 to 40% at most. Strong diurnal heating will allow for steep low level lapse rates and plenty of instability, so if an isolated storm were to mature enough, a couple of strong wind gusts would not be out of the question (especially with the mid level dry air contributing to higher DCAPE values).

Much of the drier air is associated with an influx of Saharan Dust currently over the central and western Atlantic. The main plume of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will likely approach our region by the middle of the week, so chances of precipitation on Tuesday will once again be low due to higher concentrations of dust. With H5 heights near 596 dam, within the 90th percentile for this time for year, conditions will remain quite warm. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s over the next couple of afternoons, with heat indices between 105 and 110 F. Widespread Major HeatRisk across urban areas will affect anyone without proper cooling and hydration. As a result, another Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A drier Saharan Air Layer settles in Wednesday into Thursday as the ridge axis slides a bit further north along the peninsula of Florida. This will allow for the easterly to southeasterly wind flow to persist while the lower relative atmospheric moisture will provide lower convective coverage focused inland in the afternoons. The dry air will linger until late in the week when the next burst of tropical moisture begins to arrive from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles Friday into Saturday. This moisture will allow convective activity to trend closer to seasonal norms based on the current forecast guidance. Another round of drier could emerge late in the weekend to close out the long term forecast period.

Given the relative decrease in showers and storms forecast for a good portion of the long term forecast period, temperatures will begin a warming trend with lower to mid 90s becoming the story across much of the area. Triple digit heat index values are forecast and the potential for Heat Advisories will need to be monitored day- to-day, particularly over the urbanized areas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions expected to persist through the remainder of the period at all sites. Breezy ESE winds should persist for a few more hours before conditions become more light and variable overnight for all eastern terminals. Winds will pick up once again during the afternoon tomorrow from the ESE, while a Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF.

MARINE

Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds will persist across the local coastal waters through the next few days. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may result in locally gusty winds and brief periods of rough seas. Outside of convection, seas will generally remain 2 to 3 feet.

BEACHES

Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Persistent easterly to southeasterly wind flow will allow the rip current risk to remain elevated through a good portion of the week along the Atlantic beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 92 80 93 / 0 10 0 40 West Kendall 79 93 76 93 / 0 10 10 50 Opa-Locka 81 93 79 94 / 0 10 0 40 Homestead 80 92 78 92 / 10 0 0 30 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 79 91 / 0 10 0 30 N Ft Lauderdale 81 92 79 92 / 0 10 0 30 Pembroke Pines 80 92 79 93 / 0 10 0 30 West Palm Beach 79 93 78 93 / 0 10 0 40 Boca Raton 80 91 79 92 / 0 10 0 30 Naples 77 92 79 91 / 30 10 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.