textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Scattered storms will continue late this afternoon with the potential for gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and poor drainage flooding.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the weekend for much of the area with the highest probability of Major HeatRisk along the Florida East Coast.

- Drier air associated with the Saharan Air Layer will move into the area starting today.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 524 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

An early start to the convection today with storms firing up along the East Coast by 15z this morning. The bulk of the storms this afternoon and evening will develop along the Gulf Coast side and along colliding outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Much of the southern and eastern portions are enshrouded in anvils from the storms earlier today, so we don't anticipate re-development over those areas this evening. Dry conditions prevail tonight through the overnight hours. Lingering smoke may be a concern again overnight near the ongoing wildfires on the western fringe of the Miami metro area, however, there is not as strong of a signal on the high-res models as in past days.

High-res guidance continues to indicate that we may have a few showers developing over the Atlantic waters in the pre-dawn hours, but they will likely remain out over the open waters in the morning. CAMs are latching on to convection blossoming across the area through the afternoon hours tomorrow, especially along boundary collisions away from the coastline. DCAPE will be high enough tomorrow that gusty winds will be a concern with any of the late afternoon storms. Localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas will be a concern as well given the generally light flow tomorrow.

In addition to the storms, heat remains a concern tomorrow with high temperatures topping out in the mid to low 90s with heat indices of 103-107+ once again. HeatRisk remains in the Moderate to Major category for much of the area, especially closer to the coastlines.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 524 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

No significant changes to the forecast as we roll deeper into the week and toward the weekend. Ridging remains the main driver of the forecast with scattered showers and storms expected each afternoon and above-normal temperatures. Moderate to Major HeatRisk remains the biggest concern through this timeframe with the East Coast of Florida having the highest probability (60-70% chance) of reaching the Major HeatRisk category. Showers and storms will generally be diurnally driven by the sea breeze each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 524 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. Onshore flow persists this afternoon with southwesterly to westerly winds along the Gulf Coast and southeasterly winds along the East Coast. Storms will persist through the early evening across the western portion of the area and should generally stay away from the terminals. Winds become light and variable by 00-01Z.

MARINE

Issued at 524 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

High pressure prevails over the local waters. Light south-southeast winds persist across the Atlantic, while south-southwest winds develop each afternoons across the Gulf waters with the development of the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms should generally remain over the land, but a few storms may drift offshore in the evening and could produce locally hazardous winds and seas. Seas are generally expected to remain 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 92 79 92 / 10 40 20 20 West Kendall 77 93 76 93 / 20 50 30 30 Opa-Locka 79 94 79 93 / 20 50 30 30 Homestead 79 93 79 92 / 10 40 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 92 / 30 50 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 79 91 / 30 50 20 40 Pembroke Pines 80 95 80 95 / 30 50 20 30 West Palm Beach 78 92 78 92 / 20 60 30 60 Boca Raton 79 91 79 91 / 20 50 20 40 Naples 79 91 78 92 / 10 20 10 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067-068-071>074- 168-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.