textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 105 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon into early evening.

- Heavy rain may lead to poor drainage or urban flooding today.

- Max heat indices of 100-105 possible this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Latest analysis shows surface high pressure sliding off into the central Atlantic, and another weak high in the eastern Gulf. A fairly weak southeast flow is expected this weekend across South FL. Forecast soundings show PWAT valued of 2.0-2.2 inches both today and again on Sunday, with fairly deep moisture throughout the column. Convection will be primarily sea-breeze driven and while the highest PoPs today and Sunday will be over the interior, the weaker flow should bring more of the east coast metro into play for scattered thunderstorms. With the anticipated high rainfall rates, some localized urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible. Also can't rule out an isolated strong storm or two both days, with strong wind gusts the primary threat.

High temps today and Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The heat combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will result in afternoon heat indices maxing out in the 100-105 range. Low temps tonight will remain mild ranging from the lower 70s over inland areas to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Surface high pressure will build back into the western Atlantic early this upcoming week and remain anchored in the vicinity through at least mid week. An upper level low over the eastern Caribbean will meander around the region through at least mid week, with little impact expected locally. Towards the middle of the week, a frontal boundary will approach the southeast US as an upper level trough digs through the eastern US, however at this point the frontal boundary looks like it will struggle to make it any further south than northern FL before washing out later in the week.

Convection will continue to be primarily diurnally driven sea-breeze convection during the extended period. With a low level SSE flow early in the week, higher PoPs are expected across the east coast metro on Monday and Tuesday. As the flow becoming more easterly mid to late week, highest PoPs will transition to the interior and SW FL, with lower chances across the east coast metro.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal. Heat indices will max out at 100-105 each afternoon with some flirtation of advisory criteria each day through the end of the week. Timing of rainfall each day will be critical on whether or not advisory criteria will be reached.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR this morning with light and variable winds. Winds late morning become SE around 10 kts with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Gentle southeasterly winds expected this weekend, with Gulf winds becoming westerly each afternoon. Seas generally 2 ft or less in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms possible each day weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 77 91 77 / 40 10 50 10 West Kendall 91 74 92 75 / 50 10 60 10 Opa-Locka 92 77 92 77 / 40 10 60 20 Homestead 90 77 91 77 / 40 10 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 89 78 90 78 / 40 10 50 20 N Ft Lauderdale 89 77 90 77 / 40 10 60 30 Pembroke Pines 93 78 94 79 / 40 10 60 20 West Palm Beach 90 77 91 77 / 40 10 60 20 Boca Raton 89 78 90 78 / 30 10 60 30 Naples 90 77 89 78 / 40 20 40 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.