textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 148 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Scattered showers will develop through the early evening hours, with coverage most likely across interior and Southwest FL. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms.

- High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon through the rest of the week.

- A more unsettled pattern appears possible towards the end of the week and over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Forecast remains on track so far this afternoon. Sea breeze thunderstorms have been popping up along the eastern metro areas over the last couple of hours as the Atlantic breeze pushes inland. Ridging will generally weaken across the region as a shortwave perturbation crosses the Ohio River Valley and a weak mid to upper level circulation makes its way north along the Bahamas. While these features may provide some increased ascent, most storm activity through the rest of the afternoon will focus along mesoscale and sea breeze boundary interactions. Storm coverage is expected to be scattered to numerous, mainly along interior South Florida. Stronger southeast flow will push activity into southwest Florida along the Gulf Breeze in the mid to late afternoon. However, some guidance is showing that outflow boundaries pushing east late in the day may once again spawn new convection along the Dade and Broward county metro areas. Recent ACARs soundings indicate that a relatively moist airmass remains in place, with PWATs near 2 inches across the region. With slightly more forcing and steeper mid-level lapse rates do to the nearby upper level features, an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. SPC mesoanalysis indicates DCAPE values between 700 and 1000 J/kg will be present, which indicates the potential for a few strong water loaded downdrafts. Locally heavy rainfall under any storm may also create minor urban flooding concerns, with HREF ensemble members showing a few hot spots of 2 to 3 inches of rain, mainly along interior areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Ridging will remain generally established across the area for the duration of the forecast period, with an accompanying area of high pressure near the surface driving easterly/southeasterly winds and moisture advection across South Florida. However, a developing upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will help slightly weaken the ridge as it expands southward over the Appalachians. This weakening will help enhance lift over our area, and in turn promote more active and unsettled afternoons on Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast soundings show a much moister atmospheric column each day, with PWATs back up to 2 inches or more across much of the area. With easterly/southeasterly winds prevailing, convection will still begin along the sea breeze boundary and progress inland, but coverage is likely to be more numerous than previous days, especially across southwest FL. HREF guidance suggests 1-2 inches could fall across portions of the interior and southwest FL, with isolated 3-4 inches in some spots.

Temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Heat indices will linger in the low 100s, but cloud coverage associated with storm activity should help mitigate values rising into the 105-110F range. Overnight temperatures will also remain fairly balmy, with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s across the East Coast, and down to the mid 70s across the interior.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the extended period as South Florida remains entrenched in an area of weakness between two ridges, and the upper level trough causing this weakness extends south across the Appalachian mountains. At the same time, some of the ensemble suites are hinting at a few tropical upper tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) meandering across the area, which could enhance instability and lift and result in more widespread unsettled weather. In fact, the NBM is picking up on this possibility as we head into the weekend, with Friday afternoon potentially being one of the wetter ones this weekend (with 60-80% chances of rainfall), with activity maximized across the interior and southwest portions of South Florida. With the potential for more widespread coverage, and the added support from features aloft, the heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding for portions of southwest FL. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Ridging will start to build back and as we head into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Scattered thunderstorms ongoing across South Florida early this afternoon. Have included VCTS for all sites and a brief TEMPO for KDJT, where gusty winds and visibility drops may occur under thunderstorms. For the most part, southeast winds will prevail for all eastern locations, along with VFR conditions. A Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF. Have also included VCTS and A TEMPO for KAPF for mid-afternoon thunderstorms that develop along the Gulf breeze. Storm activity will diminish after sunset with winds becoming light and variable.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Benign boating conditions will prevail across all local waters as light to moderate winds continue. Across the local Atlantic waters, easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail, while westerly winds are forecast over the local Gulf waters. Scattered showers and storms are expected each day, mainly in the morning hours and again in the late evening hours across the local waters. Locally hazardous winds and rough seas may occur near any storm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 91 80 92 / 40 50 20 50 West Kendall 78 91 78 92 / 40 50 10 60 Opa-Locka 79 92 79 93 / 40 60 20 50 Homestead 79 92 78 92 / 40 50 10 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 90 81 91 / 40 50 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 91 81 91 / 30 50 20 50 Pembroke Pines 80 91 80 91 / 30 60 20 50 West Palm Beach 78 92 78 92 / 30 50 20 50 Boca Raton 80 90 79 90 / 30 50 20 50 Naples 76 91 77 91 / 40 60 40 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.