textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- A few isolated showers across Southeast Florida this afternoon, but mostly dry weather is expected. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue today and will linger into Sunday. - Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Atlantic coast this weekend during high tide cycles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

In terms of wet season standards, a much quieter weather pattern has set up for this weekend. An area of low pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast puts South Florida into a setup favoring dry air advection, with moisture profiles expected to be in the lowest 10- 25% for this time of year with dew points falling into the mid to upper 60s for most of the region. With South Florida on the periphery of the trough axis and weaker high pressure over the Deep South, we should see much drier than average conditions this weekend. PoPs are no higher than 20-30%, and this is only along the immediate east coast metro areas where NNW flow and a weak sea breeze circulation could spark a few showers in the late afternoon and early evening. Overall, drier and more tranquil weather will prevail this weekend and will give a nice break from the lengthy wet pattern we had been in.

High temperatures remain primarily in the upper 80s this weekend, with areas near the lake potentially peaking in the mid 80s. Overnight lows Saturday night range from the low to mid 60s near the lake to the upper 60s and low 70s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

For early next week, the potent low pressure in the northeast US will shift more northwards as a mid-to-upper level shortwave trough pushes across the central US and deepens across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast US regions. As this trough swings through the Florida Peninsula in the Monday to Tuesday time frame, low level flow will shift back to a southerly to southwesterly direction and result in the return of deeper tropical moisture advection. With this increasing moisture returning and the shortwave trough providing some upper level forcing for ascent, rain chances will increase back to the 60-80% range by Tuesday and into the middle of next week across South Florida. Steady moisture advection is then expected to continue through the end of the week.

For the end of the week, ensembles are hinting that the subtropical high in the western Atlantic will re-build and expand further east, resulting in a return to steady easterly flow. This setup favors the highest rain chances over SW Florida (65-80%) with slightly lower chances across SE Florida (50-60%) by Friday and into next weekend. Essentially, this pattern suggests the most widespread activity will be seen over SW Florida with more scattered activity over the east coast metro areas.

High temperatures will rebound slightly through the period, with highs each day reaching anywhere from the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler through Monday night with the front clearing the area, with lows near the lake region in the low to mid 60s and the rest of the region seeing lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. By Tuesday night and beyond, overnight lows will increase back into the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR is expected for the period. NNW winds this morning will shift to the NNE for the east coast terminals after 17-19Z and a few isolated and weak SHRA are possible in the area in the late afternoon and evening. At KAPF, winds shift to the further NW in the afternoon. Light winds expected to return for the overnight hours.

MARINE

Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Hazardous conditions are expected to linger across the Atlantic waters this weekend. Moderate northerly winds today will weaken more on Sunday, but a northerly/northeasterly swell continues due to a strong system in the northeast. Thus, seas are still expected to reach 6-8 feet through Sunday morning. With these wave conditions, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Sunday morning but are expected to drop off after that as calmer conditions return heading into next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues for all Atlantic coast beaches as an increasing northerly/northeasterly swell and brisk northerly winds continue. In addition, the High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Palm Beaches for big breaking waves of up to 7-8 feet today.

Furthermore, the King Tide Cycle this weekend is expected to result in more periods of coastal flooding. Observations continue to out- perform guidance by a decent margin and thus we could see minor to moderate flooding. Based on today's observations, there is a good chance that Palm Beach and Broward coastlines reach moderate flooding, while Miami-Dade should remain at minor. The Coastal Flood Statement has been upgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory for Palm Beach and Broward, with the Coastal Flood Statement remaining in place for Miami-Dade. Both of these products will run through Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 87 72 86 72 / 30 20 10 0 West Kendall 88 70 87 71 / 20 20 10 0 Opa-Locka 88 71 87 71 / 20 10 10 0 Homestead 88 71 87 72 / 30 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 87 71 86 72 / 20 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 87 71 86 71 / 20 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 87 70 86 70 / 20 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 86 70 86 70 / 20 0 0 0 Boca Raton 86 70 86 70 / 20 10 0 0 Naples 86 68 85 69 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.