textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026 - After a chilly start this morning, dry conditions will remain in place today with high temperatures only rising into the 60s across most areas with breezy conditions.

- Hazardous marine conditions will continue for the Gulf and Atlantic waters today into Tuesday as winds and seas remain elevated. - Chances of showers will return to the region for the middle to the end of the week along with warmer temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

During the early portion of the week, South Florida will remain in between broad mid level troughing that extends down into the Southeast portion of the country and mid level ridging to the Southeast across portions of the Carribean Sea. At the surface, a strong and expansive area of high pressure centered over the Central and Southern Plains today will gradually push into the Mid Atlantic States as well as the Southeast on Tuesday. This will help to bring dry conditions to South Florida today into Tuesday. With the strong high building in from the north and the remnants of the frontal boundary that remains off to the southeast, this will allow for a tight pressure gradient to remain in place across South Florida for today and Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient will continue to create breezy conditions across the region during this time frame.

With winds remaining northerly across the region through most of today, cold air advection will continue which will keep high temperatures only rising into the lower 60s west of Lake Okeechobee with mid to upper 60s occurring across the rest of the region. While cold air advection will continue tonight, it will not be as strong as winds will slowly start to veer as the night progresses. Low temperatures tonight will generally drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s west of Lake Okeechobee. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s will be common across the the rest of Southwest Florida. Across the eastern half of the region, temperatures will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s across the interior sections, while upper 50s will be common across the east coast metro areas. Temperatures will start a gradual moderating trend on Tuesday as winds continue to veer and become northeasterly allowing for high temperatures rise into the lower to mid 70s across most areas.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

The weather pattern will start showing gradual signs of change on Wednesday as a weak mid level shortwave dives southeastward from the Southern Plains on Wednesday towards the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, high pressure centered to the north will shift off into the western Atlantic. This will allow for the surface wind flow to continue to veer and become east northeasterly during this time frame which will allow for lower level moisture advection to increase throughout the day. The latest global and ensemble guidance shows PWATs increasing as the day progresses and they will generally range from around an inch across the Lake Okeechobee region to 1.3 inches across the east coast metro areas by the end of the day. This will allow for the potential for some fast moving isolated to scattered shower activity to return mainly to the east coast metro areas as the day progresses. Most of the shower activity on Wednesday should remain low topped, however, some brief heavy downpours cannot be ruled out along the east coast with the potential enhancement of shower activity due to coastal convergence. High temperatures on Wednesday will continue to moderate as they will rise into the mid 70s along the east coast to around 80 across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

The forecast become more complex and uncertain heading into the end of the week as the latest global and ensemble guidance suite continues to struggle with the weak shortwave impulse as it moves across the Gulf and towards the Florida Peninsula on Thursday and Friday. At the surface, some very weak cyclogenesis tries to take place along a boundary that extends across the Gulf Coast states and into the Gulf. If any area of low pressure were to develop at all, it would be very weak and disorganized. This plays a role in our sensible weather here in South Florida heading into Thursday and Friday in regards to shower chances during this time frame. Basically if something were to become more organized along the boundary, it would increase rain chances here across South Florida during this time frame as it would increase moisture advection as it pushes closer to the region. If it were to remain very disorganized, this would lead to lower and more isolated to scattered shower activity during this time frame across the region as the boundary lingers nearby. The latest guidance suite has trended more towards this second disorganized solution, which would leave a weak boundary nearby creating the possibility of isolated to scattered showers on both Thursday and Friday. The latest forecast represents this as it takes a blend of the forecast models and keeps the probabilities of showers at 30 to 50 percent during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

Looking ahead to the upcoming weekend, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite is showing signs of a building mid level ridge pushing towards the region from the South. At the surface, weak high pressure would push into the region which lead to somewhat drier conditions during this time frame. There would be enough lower level moisture in place, however, to support a slight chance of showers especially across the eastern half of the region during this time frame. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday look to be above climatological normals with the building ridge in place.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Some SCT MVFR ceilings early this morning, then mainly VFR expected the rest of the day. NNW winds 10-15 kts this morning becoming NNE after 20Z this afternoon across the east coast metro. APF will remain NE throughout the day. Winds become NNW and weaken to 5-10 kts after 00Z.

MARINE

Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the local waters today with fresh to strong north northwesterly winds along with elevated seas. These winds will remain fresh to strong on Tuesday while they shift and become more northeasterly. Heading towards the middle of the week, winds will gradually diminish across the Gulf waters, however, elevated winds and seas will linger across the Atlantic waters during this time frame. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 7 to 9 feet through the early to middle portion of the week. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 4 to 6 feet today and Tuesday before gradually subsiding on Wednesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

While a high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Gulf beaches early this morning, this risk will gradually fall to moderate as the day progresses. A moderate risk of rip currents will also persist across the Atlantic Coast beaches today. The risk of rip currents will increase across all Atlantic Coast beaches heading into Tuesday and Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

High pressure building in from the north will bring a much drier air mass into the region today. With north to northwesterly wind flow in place throughout the day, minimum relative humidity values will plummet across Southwest Florida and will range between 25 to 30 percent during the afternoon hours. While these values will lead to enhanced fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of Southwest Florida, wind speeds will not be strong enough to warrant any fire weather headlines for this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 68 57 74 65 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 68 52 75 61 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 69 55 74 64 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 69 57 75 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 68 58 73 65 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 68 57 73 65 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 68 55 74 63 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 67 57 73 65 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 68 57 74 65 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 65 47 74 56 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066- 067-069-070.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EST this morning for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.