textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 219 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop this afternoon. Some thunderstorms could become strong containing gusty winds and heavy downpours.

- Slow storm motion combined with the potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours from strong storms could lead to localized flooding especially across the urban and poor drainage areas today.

- Peak heat index values will range between 103 and 108 across most areas across South Florida today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Strong and expansive mid level ridging will remain centered off to the north over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio River Valley today and Thursday. Closer to South Florida, a mid level shortwave will sneak in under the ridge from the western Atlantic today and it will gradually pass by just to the north heading into Thursday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will stall out over Central Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee today before gradually starting to wash out on Thursday. Moisture will continue to advect and pool over South Florida out ahead of the weakening frontal boundary today and this moisture will lingering over the area heading into Thursday. The latest forecast model soundings continue to show PWAT values increasing and ranging between 2.0 and 2.3 inches across most of the region today and Thursday. This will be plenty of moisture to support increased shower and thunderstorm chances during this time frame.

While sea breeze formation will once again be the major driver of convective initiation both today and Thursday, the surface frontal boundary just to the north as well as the mid level shortwave energy passing nearby will serve as extra sources of lift and support. This added support could lead to some stronger thunderstorms with gusty winds this afternoon especially over the areas where where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundary collisions take place. With deep layer moisture pooling over the region, heavy downpours with the stronger thunderstorms will have the capability of producing high rainfall rates. These high rainfall rates combined with the potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours and slow storm motion could produce localized flooding especially over the urban and poor drainage areas.

Heat will continue to remain a concern as well across South Florida as peak heat index values will range between 103 and 108 degrees across most of the region this afternoon as well as Thursday afternoon. However, with the increased chance of showers and thunderstorms, Heat Advisories are not anticipated across the region as the heat indices will not remain at their peak values for an extended period of time. The HeatRisk will rise into the moderate category across most areas today, however, a portion of the east coast metro areas could see the HeatRisk rise into the major category which would be the type of heat that affects anyone without proper hydration or cooling.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Heading towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the strong mid level ridge will center over the Mid-Atlantic states as well as the Carolinas on Friday before slowly shifting east southeastward and gradually weakening as it pushes into the western Atlantic on Saturday and Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will begin to build into South Florida from the western Atlantic on Friday and the region will remain on the western periphery of this high through the upcoming holiday weekend. This will allow for a light to moderate southeasterly synoptic wind flow to develop over the region during this time frame. The sea breeze development will be the main driver of convective initiation each afternoon and it will start to resemble more of a typical summertime pattern as the weekend progresses. With the southeasterly wind flow in place, the Atlantic sea breeze will be able to push further inland each afternoon, which will keep the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms over the interior as well as Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s each day through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, however, some mid 90s will be possible over the interior portions of Southwest Florida. Heat index values will still remain a concern as the peak heat indices rise and range between 103 and 108 each day. Some interior portions of Southwest Florida may briefly hit a heat index of 110 during the afternoon hours over the upcoming weekend. This will continue to be monitored closely as the rest of the week progresses.

For the early portion of next week, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite show the mid level ridge centered over the western Atlantic pushing back towards the southwest and centering over the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf. Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic strengthens as well as it slowly pushes closer to the region. This will allow for the southeasterly wind flow to strengthen a bit, and convective initiation will still remain sea breeze driven during this time frame. The highest chances of showers and storms will remain across the interior and west coast each afternoon and evening during this time frame where sea breezes and other mesoscale boundaries collide.

Heat will still remain a concern across the region especially with the potential for mid level height rises early next week. High temperatures early next week will generally rise into the lower 90s, however, some mid 90s will remain possible across interior portions of Southwest Florida. Peak heat index values will remain very warm as they will generally range between 103 and 108 each day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Light winds will continue across all terminals through the overnight and into the morning hours. These winds will increase out of the east after 16z and will rise up to around 10 kts this afternoon across the east coast terminals. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop this afternoon near the terminals and could bring periods of MVFR or IFR conditions in and around storms along with gusty and erratic winds. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WNW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A weakening frontal boundary will stall out just to the north of the local waters today into Thursday. This will create a rather light and variable wind flow across the Atlantic waters today and tonight before gradually increasing out of the southeast on Thursday afternoon. Across the Gulf waters, a light to gentle east northeasterly wind flow will become west northwesterly this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range between 2 to 4 feet today while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across the local waters today into Thursday. Gusty winds and locally higher seas are possible near the strongest thunderstorms during this time frame.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 78 91 79 / 70 30 60 20 West Kendall 93 75 92 76 / 80 30 70 20 Opa-Locka 93 78 92 79 / 70 30 70 20 Homestead 92 78 91 79 / 60 30 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 90 79 / 60 30 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 90 79 / 60 20 60 20 Pembroke Pines 95 80 93 80 / 70 30 70 20 West Palm Beach 91 78 91 78 / 50 20 60 20 Boca Raton 90 79 90 79 / 60 20 60 20 Naples 92 77 91 78 / 70 40 50 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.