textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 153 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely again this evening across SE FL. Chances will gradually decrease early next week.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts could be likely today as temperatures rise into the low-mid 90s, and heat indices linger in the 103-106F range.

- Lingering smoke from wildfires across SE FL could result in reduced air quality and lower visibilities across Miami-Dade and Broward.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 153 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The pattern will remain generally unchanged today with an upper level disturbance lingering over the state, which will continue supporting unsettled weather over the region. ACARS soundings early this morning present a much drier and stable profile compared to earlier conditions, with PWATs down to ~1.6-1.7 inches (a few tenths of an inch below average for this time of year). However, forecast soundings show moisture surging back later today as diurnal heating helps destabilize the atmospheric column, with modeled SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, leading to another evening of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak surface flow will mean that convection will be slow-moving in nature, developing over the southeast interior where the Gulf breeze will advance and meet the Atlantic sea breeze then filling in and spreading out late in the evening as outflow boundaries interact with each other. Despite the slow-moving nature of these storms, guidance isn't very enthused regarding the potential for flooding with this setup; HREF ensemble guidance suggest activity could bring 1-2 inches of rainfall at most, with only a 1 in 10 chance of up to 2-4 inches in isolated spots.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms start to decrease on Monday as ridging attempts to build over the region and increasing subsidence helps limit convective development. Chances for activity will remain in the 30-50% range Monday afternoon, with activity maximized over the interior.

Heat will remain a big concern today, as temperatures continue to rise into the low-mid 90s and heat indices reach the low 100s. However, the risk of heat indices reaching or exceeding Heat Advisory criteria remains fairly marginal today given the potential additional cloud coverage with convection. Nevertheless, the chances of Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are considerable (40-50% for the Major category, higher for Moderate), and members of the public are encouraged to exercise caution while outdoors, taking frequent breaks, staying hydrated and wearing light clothing.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 153 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Ridging will continue to build over the region next week, while a plume of Saharan Dust approaches from the east. Both developments could help reduce the chances of showers and thunderstorms each day by introducing drier air and subsidence into the area. Best chances for any convection will remain over the southwest and interior where sea breezes will meet.

Heat will remain a problem, especially with the introduction of Saharan dust into the mix. Temperatures will continue to climb into the mid 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the 105-110 range likely.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this morning, with light and variable winds at all terminals. Winds become southerly this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze at KAPF, as chances for SHRA/TSRA increase. Included a few PROB30s where higher confidence exists regarding impacts.

MARINE

Issued at 153 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Light southeasterly winds continue across the Atlantic waters today with southerly to southwesterly winds over the Gulf. Tonight, winds could veer from the north/northeast across all local waters before settling back from the south on Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the local waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas possible with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 93 78 93 80 / 60 20 20 10 West Kendall 94 76 94 78 / 60 20 30 10 Opa-Locka 94 78 94 80 / 70 20 20 10 Homestead 93 79 93 80 / 50 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 92 81 / 60 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 79 91 80 / 70 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 95 80 95 81 / 70 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 92 78 92 80 / 50 30 30 10 Boca Raton 91 79 91 81 / 60 30 20 10 Naples 91 78 93 79 / 20 0 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.