textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 717 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during high tide today, with moderate flooding into the end of this week. Inundated roadways are expected for coastal areas.

- Marine and beach conditions will gradually continue to improve.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 420 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Overall forecast philosophy remains on track for the rest of today and Friday, with a transitional period bringing breezy conditions gradually relaxing, and relatively drier conditions prevailing across much of Soflo.

Very sparse showers have been observed on radar through the early afternoon hours, but can't rule out a late afternoon thunderstorm or two as the peak of daytime heating occurs. 12Z MFL sounding kept PWATs around 1.7", but with low CAPE values (below 500 J/KG) and weak mid lvl ridging lingering over the area, models keep coverage in the 20-40% range each day. Only hazard that continues to make headlines is the coastal flooding conditions across Atlantic coastline locations with the king tides. Please see the BEACH FORECAST section below for specific details about the coastal products in effect.

Afternoon max temperatures today should remain in the mid-upper 80s, while overnight lows should drop into the low-mid 70s inland, and mid-upper 70s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A wetter pattern looks likely this weekend as mid-level ridging over the Gulf is forecast to break down, giving way to a more zonal flow pattern aloft across the Florida peninsula. At the same time, an upper level shortwave feature will begin to develop over the western Gulf. Moisture will pool across the area on Saturday ahead of this feature, and with ridging aloft and near the surface both weakening, weaker northeasterly winds will allow sea breeze dynamics to once again play a more prominent role in convective development during the afternoon. This will mean a gradual increase in rain chances through the day, with the majority of convection focused across interior and southwest FL during the afternoon hours where the breezes meet. Afternoon temperatures could peak in the upper 80s.

Conditions become more unsettled Sunday into Monday as the aforementioned upper-level disturbance approaches the peninsula. This feature will help support large-scale ascent across the area, and should cool the mid-levels enough to support more instability along the atmospheric column. This is supported by the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) from yesterday's 12Z run, which shows the ensemble leaning towards unusually high CAPE across the area.As such, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main concerns with any of the stronger storms that develop.

Conditions look to dry out as we head into the middle of next week, with chances for rainfall limited to some coastal showers each day (PoPs 15-20%). Temperatures will cool down a bit Sunday-Monday with the increased storminess and cloud cover, with highs in the mid 80s. Lows will slide into the mid 60s across the interior, and the low 70s along the coasts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 717 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Northeasterly winds will become light and variable overnight across all terminals, before increasing to 10-13 kts after 15Z, then subsiding only slightly toward the end of the TAF period. Isolated onshore-moving showers may briefly impact east coast terminals after 15Z.

MARINE

Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Boating conditions start to gradually improve today as surface high builds over the area. Northeasterly winds 10-15 knots will prevail through Friday, and could increase back up to Advisory criteria across the Atlantic waters this weekend. Scattered showers will continue each day with a few isolated thunderstorms possible.

BEACHES

Issued at 420 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Coastal flooding remains likely along the South Florida coastlines during the high tide cycles today. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastline, while the Coastal Flood Statement for mainland Monroe and Collier counties has been extended until 6 AM EDT Friday for Minor stage coastal flooding possible.

A high risk of rip currents will also persist along the Palm Beach county beaches through Friday evening. Beachgoers are strongly advised to heed all safety instructions and posts at all beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 86 76 84 / 10 30 60 80 West Kendall 75 87 76 85 / 10 30 50 70 Opa-Locka 75 87 76 85 / 20 30 60 80 Homestead 75 87 76 86 / 10 20 60 70 Fort Lauderdale 75 84 76 83 / 20 40 60 80 N Ft Lauderdale 75 85 76 84 / 20 30 60 80 Pembroke Pines 75 87 75 86 / 20 30 60 80 West Palm Beach 75 85 75 84 / 20 40 60 70 Boca Raton 75 84 76 83 / 20 30 60 80 Naples 72 87 73 86 / 10 20 10 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.