textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 745 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

- High risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches today.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly over the interior areas of South Florida.

- Temperatures will remain above normal.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A decayed frontal boundary will linger over the Florida Straits today and into Saturday while a surface low tracks from east to west across the southern Florida Peninsula. Simultaneously, broad mid- level and upper-level troughing will encompass the SE U.S. as the longwave trough advects through the area towards the western Atlantic. While these mentioned features will provide some weaker sources of lift, they alone are not expected to have enough strength to outweigh the lack of deep moisture. Overall PWATs in the hi-res models are showing 1.4-1.7", but this is misleading as this moisture is extremely shallow (all of it is below the 750-800mb layer with ample dry air above this). Therefore, air parcels will have an extremely tough time breaking this inhibitive profile that also highlights a weak capping inversion in the afternoon. Nevertheless, the combination of multiple lifting mechanisms (stationary front, sea breezes, surface low and outflow boundary collisions) and steeper low level lapse rates might just be enough to produce a couple of thunderstorms in the later afternoon and evening hours today and perhaps an isolated occurrence of a stronger to marginally- severe storm. A quick spin-up could also be possible due to increased surface vorticity along the surface low propagation. However, the chances for a stronger to marginally-severe storm or spin-up are extremely conditional and will require all factors to come together at the right time in order to overcome the cap of the abundantly dry air above the boundary layer.

For Saturday, upper-level ridging will begin to expand more over the Florida Peninsula and across most of the Eastern Seaboard, which is expected to shift low-level and mid-level flow to out of a southerly or southeasterly direction this weekend. This will create a flow pattern suitable for increased moisture advection to South Florida from the Caribbean. Thus, even though the ridge pattern should suppress stronger convection, we are now entering the time of year where increased heating will lead to enhanced sea breeze circulations that will provide forcing necessary for showers and storms. General weak flow will be present under the ridge, so both the Atlantic and Gulf breezes will be able to advance inland on Saturday and merge over the interior, so this will be the focus area for most of the shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday. PoPs for Saturday are 40-50% over these areas and 15-30% closer to the coasts and metro areas. The threat of strong storms is not expected for Saturday with the only concerns being sub-severe winds and heavy downpours.

High temperatures for today and Saturday will range from the upper 80s to low 90s for the east coast metro to the low to mid 90s for Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

This weekend into next week will see upper level high pressure settling into the Gulf and extending across the Florida Peninsula while an upper low will settle into the eastern Carribean away from the area. At the same time, surface high pressure will amplify and expand over the western Atlantic and Southeast U.S. This will create a moderate easterly flow across South Florida for much of the period that sets up as a typical summertime or wet season pattern just as we begin the wet season time frame. Under this easterly regime underneath the upper-level ridge, convection will be diurnally driven with storms developing in the afternoon and evening hours each day either by sea breeze circulations or by air parcels reaching their localized convective temperature. Additional convection is expected to develop off of numerous mesoscale boundary collisions. Under this regime, the highest PoPs favor inland and Southwest Florida locations. For the overnight hours, coastal showers and isolated storms would be expected.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain a little above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps in the 70s. Maximum heat index values for the early to mid-week period next week may approach 100-105 degrees for portions of Southwest Florida, but this would still be below Heat Advisory criteria currently.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 745 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Light and variable winds overnight will become a gentle easterly- southeasterly breeze. Low chances for any convection today. Light and variable winds again overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A gentle to moderate easterly breeze is expected to develop by this afternoon across the Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, a westerly breeze will develop across the Gulf waters. A few showers or isolated storms will be possible today which may result in briefly hazardous winds and seas. Showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage this weekend and into next week. Atlantic seas will be 2-4 feet through this weekend with Gulf seas at 2 feet or less for the same time frame.

BEACHES

Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A high risk for rip currents is in effect for the Palm beaches beginning this afternoon and continuing into tonight. An elevated risk is expected for the other Atlantic coast beaches heading into this weekend, which also has the potential to become a high risk.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 76 88 77 / 10 10 30 20 West Kendall 92 73 90 75 / 10 10 30 20 Opa-Locka 90 76 89 77 / 10 10 30 20 Homestead 90 75 88 77 / 10 10 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 87 77 86 78 / 10 10 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 86 76 86 77 / 10 10 20 30 Pembroke Pines 91 77 90 78 / 10 10 30 20 West Palm Beach 86 77 86 77 / 20 10 30 20 Boca Raton 86 78 86 78 / 10 20 30 20 Naples 90 73 91 74 / 10 10 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from noon EDT today through Saturday morning for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.