textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 649 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 possible through the evening hours. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this evening favoring interior and western areas of South Florida. - Some of the storms could become strong to marginally severe with strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Few changes to the overall pattern through the short term period as an area of weak high pressure remains in place over the Gulf, in tandem with ridging aloft, supporting light southeasterly winds and some subsidence aloft. Additionally, we are still seeing the impacts associated with the presence of Saharan dust over the region, which is helping limit convective potential across the area. As a result, atmospheric profiles are looking fairly dry across the area, with PWATs in the 1.4-1.6 inch range, well below the 25th percentile for this time of year.

This setup will help produce isolated to scattered convective activity later this afternoon along sea breeze boundary collisions, with coverage maximized over the interior and southwest FL. Some of that activity could drift eastward towards the East Coast late in the evening, but chances of that occurring remain low (~30% PoPs). Any storms that develop will be slow-moving in nature, and could bring strong to severe gusty winds, frequent lightning and small hail. The forecast on Thursday looks to remain fairly similar, although some of the high res models do try to develop some additional activity along the interior and southeast metro areas in the evening. This will come as a result of more southerly- southeasterly winds bringing additional moisture over the area as the aforementioned area of high pressure shifts.

The heat will remain a concern through the period, with high temperatures forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s later this afternoon and heat indices in the 105-110 range. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the urban areas in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Collier counties til later this evening, and we will likely need another one tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Models show overall high pressure dominating the region, with the west Atl mid-lvl ridge extending into the SE CONUS and a sfc ridge just E of the area. Prevailing weak pressure gradients will result in generally light to moderate winds through Friday, with sea breezes developing and push inland each afternoon. The SAL should linger over the area through Friday. However, latest long range solutions are hinting at an earlier recovery of the airmass as a trough develops across the E CONUS and weakening the high pressure by Friday. This also helps in enhancing a little the overall southerly flow Friday afternoon, resulting in moisture filtering into SoFlo and POPs/Wx jumping back into the 40-60% range.

The overall synoptic scenario won't change much through early next week, with Saturday so far being the day with the highest moisture intrusion. Latest NBM came with up to 70% POPs/scattered to numerous thunderstorms for interior and eastern SoFlo Saturday afternoon. Sea breezes should develop each day and drive the development of deeper convection.

In terms of temperatures, highs through the long term will hit the mid-upper 90s each day. Heat advisory potential will be explored each day. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle, with light and variable winds expected overnight. A few storms could still linger near KAPF tonight, but confidence regarding impacts still remain too low for a TEMPO inclusion. Tomorrow, a light southeasterly wind will develop mid-morning along the East Coast, with westerly flow at KAPF. Another round of afternoon storms will be possible.

MARINE

Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A moderate southeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters through the end of the work week. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters where winds will become west southwest each afternoon as the Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 96 80 95 / 10 30 20 50 West Kendall 76 96 77 96 / 10 40 20 50 Opa-Locka 79 97 80 97 / 10 20 20 50 Homestead 78 95 79 95 / 10 30 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 80 95 81 95 / 10 20 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 95 80 95 / 10 20 20 60 Pembroke Pines 80 98 81 97 / 10 20 20 50 West Palm Beach 78 95 79 95 / 10 20 20 70 Boca Raton 79 93 80 93 / 10 20 20 60 Naples 78 94 79 92 / 10 10 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068>070-072-074- 168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.