textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening. Heavy rainfall may lead to poor drainage or urban flooding.

- Minor coastal flooding is possible late this morning through early this afternoon along the Collier and Mainland Monroe coastline.

- Max heat indices of 100-105 are expected this afternoon which may cause heat related concerns for sensitive populations.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Early morning analysis shows surface high pressure in the central Atlantic with a weaker area of high pressure over the eastern Gulf. On Monday another area of high pressure is expected to form in the western Atlantic. Today's pattern will be fairly similar to the past several days with a quiet morning and then afternoon and early evening convection aided by the sea-breezes. Highest PoPs will be over the interior with lower PoPs right along both coasts. An isolated strong to marginally severe storm will be possible again today, with strong wind gusts the primary threat. PWAT values of 2.0- 2.2 inches with fairly deep moisture throughout the column will promote high rainfall rates. A localized urban or poor drainage threat will exist especially if any storms pass across the metro. WPC has the entire region in a marginal risk for excessive rain. High temps this afternoon will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, max heat indices of 100-105 are expected.

Convection wanes by later this evening and then it should be fairly quiet overnight. Low temps will remain mild with overnight lows ranging from the lower 70s over the interior to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

Low level flow on Monday will become more SSE as high pressure in the western Atlantic builds in. This will result in the east coast sea-breeze struggling to make much of a push inland, which should bring a higher focus of convection into the east coast metro during the afternoon and early evening hours. This also will present a urban and poor drainage flood threat again on Monday with slow moving storms and high rainfall rates. High temps will primarily be in the lower 90s. Dewpoints may tick a few degrees higher with the SSE flow so max heat indices may approach advisory criteria. Saving grace against an advisory may be the timing of convection, but this will need to be monitored closely over the coming day.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will remain anchored in the vicinity through at least mid week. An upper level low over the eastern Caribbean will meander around the region through at least mid week, with little impact expected locally. Towards the middle of the week, a frontal boundary will approach the southeast US as an upper level trough digs through the eastern US, however at this point the frontal boundary looks like it will struggle to make it any further south than northern FL before washing out later in the week.

Convection will continue to be primarily diurnally driven sea-breeze convection during the extended period. With a low level SSE flow early in the week, higher PoPs are expected across the east coast metro on Tuesday. As the flow becoming more easterly mid to late week, highest PoPs will transition to the interior and SW FL, with lower chances across the east coast metro.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal. Heat indices will max out at 100-105 each afternoon with some flirtation of advisory criteria each day through the end of the week. Timing of rainfall each day will be critical on whether or not advisory criteria will be reached.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. We are looking at another day of sea breeze thunderstorms, which will likely affect more the interior and KAPF than the east coast TAF sites, and could bring brief visibility and ceiling restrictions. There is a lower chance that storms would affect the east coast TAF sites but this would occur closer to 00Z if that occurred. Models indicate potentially the best location to be affected by storms to be KPBI later this evening. Otherwise, winds will be out of the south to southeast around 5-10kts at sites, shifting overnight out of southwest or variable with speeds less than 5kts.

MARINE

Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Gentle southeasterly winds expected today, with Gulf winds becoming westerly this afternoon. Seas generally 2 ft or less in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms possible which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

BEACHES

Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Due to the new moon cycle, minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide from late this morning through early this afternoon along the Collier county and Mainland Monroe coastlines. Additional minor coastal flooding is possible on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 91 77 92 / 30 50 10 30 West Kendall 75 92 75 93 / 30 50 10 20 Opa-Locka 77 93 77 94 / 30 60 20 40 Homestead 77 91 78 92 / 10 40 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 78 91 78 92 / 30 60 30 40 N Ft Lauderdale 77 91 77 91 / 30 60 30 50 Pembroke Pines 79 94 79 95 / 30 60 20 40 West Palm Beach 77 92 77 93 / 40 60 20 60 Boca Raton 78 91 78 92 / 30 60 20 50 Naples 79 90 79 91 / 10 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.