textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Storms favor the east coast through early this week, then all of south Florida by mid-week.

- Westerly flow early this week will lead to hottest heat index values occurring along the east coast metro in the 102-105F range.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 156 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Not a ton of upper level pattern change as we slowly come out of the omega pattern across the CONUS. A large trough sits across the Northeast, with its axis extending through the western Atlantic. Upstream, a broad, low amplitude ridge sits over the Deep South and Gulf. Finally, a formerly closed low is opening up into the Northern stream across the western third of the country. Also worth mentioning is what could be a developing CAG across southern Mexico as a result of a +PV fragment from a shortwave that used to reside over the Southern Plains. While the low-level structure doesn't appear to be fully developed quite yet, it is forcing convection across the Yucatan and Central America. This convection is steadily pumping mid/upper level moisture through the south- central Gulf and then eastward through south and central Florida around a mid-level ridge axis nosing into the SE Gulf. While this stream of moisture will provide continued mid level cloud cover across south Florida today, it will be a bit more broken to scattered in nature with the departure of the stronger overrunning setup that occurred yesterday ahead of a remnant mid-level shortwave. Indications are that this will allow for some scattered convection across the eastern half of South Florida late this afternoon. Exactly where is highly uncertain and will depend on where the larger breaks in cloud cover are and the development of subsequent differential heating boundaries along with the seabreeze. With PWATs forecast to be near the upper 10th percentile of climatology, skinny CAPE profiles, and a large warm cloud depth, any storms that do develop could be efficient rain producers. Several CAMs indicate a quick 2-4" possible with a reasonable worst case (less likely) closer to 6" in isolated locations.

Not much pattern change through Monday, though it appears that through the aforementioned moisture stream cloud cover may thicken back up on Monday and result in another decrease in convective coverage. The main exception would be if any storms were able to make it south to Palm Beach county after drifting off the front further north across central Florida. However, the amount of cloud cover is still pretty uncertain at this point and there's about as many ensemble members that have a day similar to what was described above for today as those that have a drier scenario.

Expect highs around 90 degrees each afternoon, with heat indices in the low 100s. Fluctuations up or down from there will be possible in areas with more or less sunshine.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 156 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

As has been mentioned the past few days, the forecast from mid- week onwards will be highly dependent on the evolution of the eastern CONUS trough and associated surface low. Within the global ensembles there's no majority solution and instead varying scenarios of an open wave or closed low and also position/timing differences. These scenarios result in a less likely scenario of the frontal boundary clearing south Florida by mid-week and having a drier end to the week, or a more gradual progression of the front and a more unsettled week. In the slower-to-dry scenarios, Tuesday and Wednesday will be much like Monday and Tuesday with rain chances favoring the east coast, with Wednesday and Thursday consisting of higher and more equal chances across south Florida. While Wednesday and Thursday look to be the wettest at this time, we're not currently expecting any concerning accumulations. It'll most likely be on the order of widespread 1-2" with the potential for scattered spots to receive up to 2-4". In the wake of the front we may be able to squeeze out one dry day before easterly flow becomes established and more seasonable rain chances return. With higher rain chances through the long term period, expect afternoon highs to be a few degrees cooler than the start of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Lingering showers and storms in the area are expected to taper off by 02Z with light winds overnight and VFR prevailing. Dominant flow tomorrow will be westerly, resulting in the east coast sea breeze struggling to form. This will cause winds tomorrow after 18-19Z to shift SSW/SSE across the east coast terminals at around 7-10 kts. Another around of VCTS expected as well.

MARINE

Issued at 156 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Gentle westerly winds will prevail today before becoming moderate early next week as an area of low pressure develops in the western Atlantic. Mostly low seas are expected, but a small northerly swell may propagate down the Gulf Stream Monday into Tuesday. A more substantial wind and swell increase is expected mid to late week associated with a frontal boundary, but the timing is still a bit uncertain. Scattered storms are expected across the Atlantic each day and may become more widespread across the Gulf and Atlantic come mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 91 77 91 / 30 50 10 60 West Kendall 76 92 75 92 / 20 50 10 60 Opa-Locka 77 92 77 92 / 30 50 10 60 Homestead 78 91 77 91 / 20 50 10 50 Fort Lauderdale 78 91 78 90 / 40 40 20 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 77 89 / 40 40 10 60 Pembroke Pines 79 93 79 93 / 40 50 20 60 West Palm Beach 77 91 78 90 / 40 40 10 70 Boca Raton 78 91 78 90 / 40 40 10 60 Naples 80 90 80 90 / 10 10 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.