textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 740 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Generally dry and seasonable weather through this afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms will spread from south to north tonight and early Sunday, with best chances of rain over metro SE Florida. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible. - High risk of rip currents until later tonight for all Atlantic beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 740 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

A mostly clear and dry start to this Saturday across South Florida, and this should hold for a good part of the day before moisture and rainfall arrive tonight.

Current satellite imagery shows two mid-level shortwave troughs, one over the western Gulf of America, and another over the far NW Caribbean Sea. These shortwaves will move E/NE and approach South Florida tonight. In response, moisture will surge northward across the region as low level winds will turn SE/S and drag the old frontal boundary over Cuba north into the Straits of Florida and far southern peninsula overnight. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values around 1 inch early this morning will rapidly increase to around 1.5 to 1.8 inches over Miami-Dade and Broward counties tonight, and 1.1 to 1.4 inches elsewhere.

As alluded to above, forcing from the shortwaves as well as the right entrance region of an upper jet across Central Florida enhancing lift, significant moisture advection, and influence of the surface frontal system all point to a wet and potentially stormy night for a good part of South Florida. Current timing of the most likely onset of widespread measurable precipitation is between 10 PM and Midnight across Miami-Dade and Broward counties, and from Midnight to 5 AM across the rest of South Florida (later as you approach the Lake Okeechobee area).

Highest rain chances are across SE Florida in closer proximity to the higher moisture and front. Consensus of global and short- range models indicate most likely widespread rain amounts anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 inches (highest SE Florida) between 7 PM tonight and 7 AM Sunday. However, this same model guidance also shows reasonable high-end amounts of 1-2 inches over parts of metro Miami-Dade and Broward counties with even higher localized amounts of at least 2-4 inches not totally out of the question as indicated by LPMM.

Potential impacts we'll be watching for are localized heavy rainfall leading to flooding, as well as a few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds. Most likely areas where these could occur are over metro SE Florida and the adjacent Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Model solutions and latest WPC sfc analyses show a rather long frontal boundary stretching across the south and east states, with its parent low north of the Great Lakes. Closer to home, a ridge over the western Atlantic is extending into central Florida, keeping generally dry and pleasant weather conditions in place through this afternoon. 00Z MFL sounding shows a similar atmospheric profile as yesterday, with a solid inversion around 850 mb and a very dry air mass through 9 km, and PWATs around 0.8 inches.

By the late afternoon/early evening hours, a lingering decaying frontal boundary over the Fl keys will begin to lift north and dragging moisture into SoFlo. Meanwhile, ensembles show the aforementioned low north of the Great Lakes migrating east and dragging the associated sfc boundary into the SE states and northern Florida. This will weaken the ridge and allow for additional moisture to push northward across SoFlo. POPs gradually increase from south to north, with up to 60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during the overnight/morning hours Sunday. Highest POPs will reside south of I-75 along the Atlantic metro areas where the best pool of moisture will reside. Main hazards will be localized heavy rain, thunderstorm wind gusts and lightning strikes. Can't rule out a few strong thunderstorms during the overnight hours.

The front impacts should be short-lived as reinforcing high pressure quickly follows and by Sunday evening another shot of robust northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across Soflo.

Afternoon highs warm up a bit today with upper 70s to low 80s across SoFlo, warmest over the west coast. Coldest temps will remain around the Lake region and interior areas with Sunday morning lows in the low-mid 60s, and upper 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. Robust northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across the Florida peninsula. Wind gusts could reach the 30 mph range along the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening.

POPs also drop back to single digits on Monday, although latest NBM insists in keeping just a sliver of slight chances of showers right along the Atlantic coast through the afternoon hours. Afterwards, the dry air makes a final push and brings POPs to near zero through the rest of the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the rest of the forecast period.

Coolest days should be Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 740 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through about 00z-02z, then followed by increasing periods of MVFR as SHRA/TSRA spread north across South Florida through the remainder of the forecast period. Brief IFR conditions are becoming more likely during the 04z-12z time frame, mainly in association with the SHRA/TSRA along the MIA- FLL-PBI corridor. Winds mainly 090-100 degrees at 10-12 knots, turning to 140-170 degrees at 8-10 knots after 03z, with higher gusts in and near SHRA/TSRA.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Moderate easterly winds continue through tonight, then winds shift northerly and increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions will likely reach advisory levels by Monday morning with the stronger winds. Meanwhile, conditions should remain fairly benign through the this afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms will begin increasing tonight and through Sunday. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty wind will accompany any thunderstorm that may form.

BEACHES

Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for all Atlantic beaches until later tonight. Another round high risk is likely early next week with the passage of another frontal system.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 69 81 65 / 20 70 50 20 West Kendall 81 65 82 62 / 20 70 50 10 Opa-Locka 81 67 82 64 / 10 70 50 20 Homestead 81 68 81 64 / 30 70 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 68 81 65 / 10 70 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 79 69 81 66 / 10 70 50 20 Pembroke Pines 81 67 82 64 / 10 70 50 20 West Palm Beach 79 68 81 65 / 0 60 40 20 Boca Raton 81 68 82 65 / 10 60 50 20 Naples 82 66 81 59 / 10 50 30 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.