textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 648 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 expected each day through the middle of the week. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Drier air over the region will lead to lower rain chances across the coastal areas. Isolated showers and storms may develop across interior areas each afternoon through the beginning of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The 12z MFL sounding continues to show a pretty dry layer of air through 600 mb, with a stout inversion remaining late this morning at 850 mb. Much of this drier air is a result of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume, currently stretched out over most of South Florida and the Caribbean. This dust is very apparent both on visible satellite and with the naked eye, creating pretty hazy conditions and diminished air quality across much of the region. This dust plume will also serve to limit convection this afternoon, with the highest chances of precipitation only about 20 to 30% across portions of interior and southwest Florida. PWATs are currently between 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which is below average for this time of year.

Mid and low level cloud cover has been steadily diminishing over the last few hours, which should allow for diurnal heating to destabilize the environment and temperatures to begin climbing. South Florida continues to sit under the influence of broad area of mid level high pressure. The recent sounding sampled 500 mb heights near 594 dam, which is in the the 90th percentile for this time of year. Morning cloud cover has kept the hottest temperatures at bay so far, with only a few isolated locations seeing heat indices over 105F. Expect temperatures to keep climbing through the mid afternoon as the mid level cloud deck diminishes, with highs looking to peak in the mid to upper 90s, and heat indices between 105 to 110 F. As a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for Miami- Dade and Broward, but there is also widespread Major HeatRisk across all metro areas.

With little synoptic forcing, any of the isolated showers or storms that develop this afternoon will focus along sea-breeze and outflow boundary collisions. The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach counties in a Marginal risk for severe weather. While there is some better moisture further north, still suspect that the atmospheric profile is too dry to sustain strong and mature convection. But in the low chance that a storm were to get going, the drier air may contribute to an isolated severe wind gust threat, with DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. With stronger easterly flow persisting, the more likely area to see an isolated shower or will be along the Gulf breeze over interior and southwest Florida.

A pretty similar scenario is expected for Monday, but the ridge axis will shift slightly westward, still remaining at around 593 to 594 dam. Similarly, the surface high over the Atlantic will also creep westward and closer to Florida, which will shift winds more southerly across the region. The Saharan dust plume will also spread west and remain across most of the area. However, guidance is indicating that the the aerosol concentration of dust will begin to diminish, which may allow for some increased moisture to filter back into the region. As a result, PoPs will increase slightly for northern parts of the forecast area, between 35 to 45%. Once again, storms will likely focus along sea-breeze and outflow boundary collisions over interior Florida. WAA from southerly flow and less cloud cover could help raise temperatures another degree or two higher, with widespread highs in the upper 90s. Another round of Heat Advisories will be likely, along with widespread Major HeatRisk for all urban locations. These conditions will affect anyone without proper cooling and hydration.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 134 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Drier than average conditions persist through most of the upcoming work week as a plume of Saharan dust makes its way across the area.A few showers or storms may manage to develop each afternoon across interior areas, but rain chances will remain in the 20-30% range each afternoon with highest chances across interior and SW Florida. An increase in moisture is expected for next weekend where rain chances will increase to 30-40%. The main story this week will be the heat - with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s each day and heat index values ranging between 105-110 degrees. Heat advisories are possible each afternoon, although this will be evaluated on a daily basis.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Vicinity storms currently near Palm Beach and Broward terminals, but all sites are expected to remain VFR. Activity will wane after sunset and winds will become light and variable.

MARINE

Issued at 134 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Drier conditions expected across local waters heading into early next week. Moderate east-southeast flow continues to prevail with wave heights remaining 3 feet or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 96 80 95 / 0 20 20 10 West Kendall 78 96 77 96 / 0 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 81 97 80 97 / 0 20 30 20 Homestead 80 95 79 94 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 81 95 81 94 / 0 20 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 81 95 80 94 / 10 20 30 20 Pembroke Pines 82 98 81 97 / 10 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 79 95 79 95 / 10 30 30 20 Boca Raton 81 93 80 93 / 10 30 30 10 Naples 79 94 78 94 / 20 10 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.