textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 608 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

- A slow moderating temperature trend will continue through mid week before a cold front Thursday brings well below normal temperatures back for the end of the work week.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue through early this evening for the northern Atlantic waters.

- High risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches, along with a high surf advisory for the Palm Beaches through this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 139 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Mid level zonal flow will slowly start to become more southwesterly heading into tonight and Wednesday out ahead of an upstream trough that will amplify as it pushes through the Plains tonight and then into the Midwest and lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure currently centered over the Florida Peninsula will gradually shift into the western Atlantic tonight into Wednesday. While winds will generally remain light through Wednesday, they will continue to veer and become more southerly out ahead of a cold front that will be moving into the Gulf as well as the Florida Panhandle during this time frame. The shift in the winds to a more southerly direction will allow for gradual lower level moisture advection to take place as well. While many areas will remain dry, some isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out mainly over the Atlantic waters and immediate east coast on Wednesday.

While temperatures will remain cool tonight, they will not be as cold as they have been over the past several nights due to veering winds coming off of the warmer waters. Low temperatures tonight will generally drop into the lower 40s across interior portions of Southwest Florida and into the mid to upper 40s across the rest of Southwest Florida. Low temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 50s across the east coast metro areas. High temperatures will rebound nicely on Wednesday as they will rise into the lower to mid 70s across most areas. Some upper 70s will be possible across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 105 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Only appreciable chances for rainfall will be on Thursday this week along and ahead of a cold front that will cross South FL during the day. Moisture will be diminishing as the frontal boundary makes its way south across the state so the best chances for measurable rainfall will be around the lake region and SW FL, with lower chances over SE FL. Even so, rainfall amounts look meager at this point, with little to no drought relief expected. Dry weather is then expected for the end of the week and through the weekend as high pressure builds back into the region. A backdoor cold front may cross the area during the second half of the weekend, but little to no moisture will be associated with it.

In the wake of the frontal passage on Thursday, cooler air will once again filter into the area. While nowhere near as cold as the previous airmass, cold weather headlines will still be possible Friday morning over inland areas and SW FL. A slow moderating trend is expected this weekend into early next week with near normal temps expected.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds gradually diminish and become light and variable this evening. Winds are not expected to increase much on Wednesday through the day. At east coast sites, a weak southeasterly flow is likely becoming light and variable again overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 139 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will remain in place across the local waters through tonight before become rather light and variable on Wednesday. A lingering northeasterly swell will continue to subside through the middle of the week across the Atlantic waters, however, seas will remain hazardous across the waters east of Palm Beach County through early this evening. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through Wednesday while seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 4 to 7 feet this evening before subsiding and ranging between 3 to 5 feet on Wednesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 139 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Due to a lingering northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic coast beaches through early this evening. This risk will remain high across the Palm Beaches through Wednesday as the northeasterly swell slowly subsides.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 105 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Winds will become northeasterly today which will help increase moisture levels across the eastern half of South FL, however afternoon min RH levels over SW FL will fall to 25-35 percent today. While winds will be light, the low RH values combined with the ongoing drought conditions will still result in an elevated fire risk for SW FL today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 56 74 57 73 / 0 10 0 20 West Kendall 49 75 51 74 / 0 0 0 20 Opa-Locka 53 75 56 72 / 0 10 0 20 Homestead 54 74 55 74 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Lauderdale 56 73 56 71 / 0 10 0 30 N Ft Lauderdale 56 74 56 71 / 0 10 0 30 Pembroke Pines 53 75 56 73 / 0 10 0 30 West Palm Beach 55 73 54 70 / 0 20 0 30 Boca Raton 55 74 55 71 / 0 20 0 30 Naples 49 72 56 67 / 0 0 20 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.