textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Atlantic coast during high tide cycles. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue today with a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches. - Isolated showers across SE Florida this afternoon and evening, but mostly dry weather is expected area-wide.

UPDATE

Issued at 925 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

South Florida remains near the base of the longwave trough over the eastern U.S. associated with the strong sfc low pressure system along the NE U.S. coast. 12z area sounding data show dry air over the region with precipitable water values in the 1.0-1.3 inch range, and a strong capping inversion in the 800-850 mb level. This moisture profile will help keep most of the area precipitation-free, except for a few showers possibly developing over portions of SE Florida late this afternoon and early this evening where the slightly cyclonic low-level westerly flow will interact with a pinned east coast seabreeze. This is reflected in highest PoPs in the 20-25% range across eastern Miami-Dade County and the adjacent waters. The shallow nature of the moisture should prevent convection from getting too deep and thus thunder chances are quite low.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The synoptic pattern will remain generally unchanged into the start of next week as a potent low pressure system meanders off the New England coastline and an associated weakening frontal feature lingers over the Florida Straits. This setup will allow South Florida to continue enjoying a well-earned stretch of dry and pleasant weather, with below-average conditions forecast through the short period and beyond. This means chances for precipitation will remain sparse coverage-wise and below 20% through Monday thanks to the presence of an abnormally dry air mass. Dew points are expected to remain in the 60s (at or below the 25th percentile) and PWATs should range from 1 to 1.5 inches at best, (also at or below the 25th percentile). An area of weak surface high extending from the southeastern United States will also help maintain any instability parameters unfavorable for convective development. However, this development will help promote lighter northerly winds across the area, which in turn will allow for the development and inland incursion of the sea breezes each afternoon. If any showers were to develop, they would be expected along these breeze boundaries.

Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages. High temperatures today will top off in the low to mid 80s across the East Coast, and maybe into the upper 80s across southwest Florida. However, they could warm up further into the upper 80s area-wide on Monday. Overnight lows will drop into the low 70s across the East Coast and down into the mid 60s across the interior.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 505 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build through the middle and end of the week. This will result in a tighter pressure gradient across Florida and a return of some more brisk east to southeasterly winds. Deeper moisture will also start to advect northward into the peninsula, with precipitable water values looking to climb back up into the 1.8 to 2 inch range. Aloft, as the decaying nor'easter over the mid-Atlantic opens up and swings east, mid-level ridging will begin to build across the eastern seaboard. However, some remnant vorticity from the trough to the north may make its way down into the Gulf. As such, some guidance is hinting at a shortwave disturbance lingering in the northern Gulf for the Wednesday through Friday period. This feature looks to break down as we go into the weekend once ridging continues to strengthen and stretch southward. Overall, chances of precipitation will trend up, about 60 to 70% each afternoon. Storm activity will likely favor interior and southwestern Florida due to the stronger easterly flow during the latter half of the week. There is increasing confidence that temperatures will increase back into the upper 80s and low 90s areawide over the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to persist overnight through Monday. Overnight, winds will become light and variable across all terminals. For eastern terminals, an initial westerly flow around 14z will soon shift to an easterly flow around 18z-20z. At APF, a weak NE flow at 14z is forecast ahead of a Gulf breeze kicking in around 17-18z. A low (<15%) chance of rain for Monday has kept VCSH out of the forecast for all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Hazardous conditions are expected to linger across the Atlantic waters through today as moderate northerly winds gradually weaken. Northerly/northeasterly swell will continue into early next week due to a strong system in the northeast. Thus, seas are still expected to reach 6-8 feet through Sunday morning, and 4-6 feet into Monday. Conditions improve later in the week as surface high builds over the area and winds shift from the east.

BEACHES

Issued at 925 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Upgraded the coastal Miami-Dade zone to a coastal flood advisory based on tide levels at Virginia Key trending towards moderate impact levels in line with the gauges in Broward and Palm Beach counties. This is expected to continue during the high tide cycles through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 73 88 74 87 / 20 10 10 60 West Kendall 72 88 73 86 / 10 0 10 70 Opa-Locka 72 88 73 87 / 20 10 10 60 Homestead 72 89 73 87 / 10 0 20 70 Fort Lauderdale 72 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 50 N Ft Lauderdale 72 88 73 87 / 10 10 10 50 Pembroke Pines 71 88 72 87 / 10 10 10 60 West Palm Beach 72 87 73 88 / 0 10 0 40 Boca Raton 72 87 73 87 / 0 10 0 50 Naples 71 87 73 87 / 0 0 10 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.