textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 146 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. Locally heavy rain may lead to isolated instances of urban or poor drainage flooding. - Chances of rain increase for eastern metro areas to begin next week. There is a Marginal Risk of urban flooding on Sunday for metro Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach.

- Heat index values of 103-108 expected today, with similar heat indices expected each day through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The next few afternoons, including today, will trend more active in terms of thunderstorm activity across South Florida. Recent KMIA ACARs sounding data continues to show a pretty moist environment, with PWATs around 2 inches. The overall atmospheric profile looks a little more saturated than the last couple of days, which should contribute to some efficient rainfall producing storms. Very weak steering flow between the surface and 500 mb will lead to slow and erratic thunderstorm motions, increasing the threat of locally heavy rainfall. Confidence for any severe threats is low, but some lingering mid-level dry air may aid in creating a few strong downdrafts. Current satellite imagery shows a pretty expansive Cu field already developing across South Florida, with a few of thunderstorms along the sea breeze. Steep low level lapse rates and plenty of surface CAPE should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to materialize through the early evening. Most activity will generally be quick hitting pop up thunderstorms developing along sea-breeze and outflow boundary interactions, but a few cell mergers could create some stronger storms, particularly over interior South Florida. The overall flow today will generally be south to southeasterly, so CAMs are indicating that storm activity may trend northward towards Lake Okeechobee by early evening as the Atlantic and Gulf sea-breezes continue to push inland. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour over the metro areas may cause localized urban flooding concerns, particularly over low lying and poor drainage locations.

Synoptically, most of Florida still finds itself under the eastward extension of an upper level ridge currently positioned over the western CONUS. With H5 heights near 594 dam and warm southerly flow, many areas will continue to see near Heat Advisory conditions this afternoon and tomorrow. Overall, widespread moderate HeatRisk is expected across most of South Florida. At the surface, high pressure continues to strengthen over the northern Gulf, while weak surface troughing extends southward across the Atlantic coast from the Carolinas. As the Gulf surface high begins to shift more south, this pattern will allow for winds over South Florida to shift more southwesterly to begin the next week. As a result, the majority of thunderstorm activity for Sunday afternoon will focus along the Atlantic breeze and over the eastern metro areas. Once again, the environment will be moist and storms will be slow moving, leading to more heavy and efficient rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach metro areas where localized urban flooding will be a concern, particularly over poor drainage and low lying areas. HREF ensemble probabilities are currently showing about a 30 to 40% chance of some areas receiving greater than 2 inches of rainfall during the afternoon. A reasonable worst case scenario would be scattered areas seeing heavier amounts of 3 to 5 inches. Outside of heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with any storm.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The unsettled pattern will remain across South FL for much of the upcoming work week. A broad upper level trough will remain over New England and the Mid Atlantic, with surface and upper level high pressure over the west/central Atlantic. This will trap an area of enhanced moisture across South FL. With the low/mid level flow remaining westerly much of the week, this will result in above average PoPs across the east coast metro each day. While the rainfall will be much appreciated given the ongoing drought, will need to be on guard for the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding each day across the metro.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with high temps generally in the low to mid 90s and low temps ranging from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Scattered to numerous storms are already ongoing and expected to persist through the afternoon, mainly across interior South Florida. Have included VCTS and TEMPOs for all eastern sites as storm activity develops along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Brief MVFR conditions and strong wind gusts may be occur with any storm. Activity looks to dissipate during the evening and winds become light and variable. Winds will shift more southwesterly across the region by tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Gentle southerly breeze expected across the Atlantic waters today, with gentle west to southwest breeze across the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms today may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, seas will be 2 ft or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 92 77 92 / 30 70 40 70 West Kendall 75 92 75 92 / 30 70 40 70 Opa-Locka 78 93 78 93 / 30 70 40 70 Homestead 78 92 77 92 / 20 70 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 79 92 78 91 / 30 70 40 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 92 78 92 / 30 70 40 70 Pembroke Pines 80 94 79 93 / 30 70 40 70 West Palm Beach 77 93 77 92 / 20 70 40 60 Boca Raton 78 91 77 91 / 30 70 40 60 Naples 79 91 80 91 / 20 50 50 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.