textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 224 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the interior and southwest FL this afternoon. A few could generate gusty winds, as well as lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts again today, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s, and heat indices 103-107F.

- Dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will move into the area late week and into the weekend, decreasing rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

As of 3 PM, scattered showers and storms have begun to develop across portions of the forecast area. CAMs suggest this activity will remain mainly over the interior, with very weak steering flow leading to slow-moving convection. Therefore, most activity today is expected to occur along the sea breezes and any boundary collisions, including outflow collisions from other storms. Mesoanalysis shows dry air present in the mid-levels will lead to DCAPE near or just shy of 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Thus, gusty winds near 50 mph cannot be ruled out in the strongest storms, in addition to lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Showers and storms will diminish this evening, generally after sunset.

Dry conditions then prevail overnight. However, models show isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two could drift onshore Broward and Miami-Dade Counties towards sunrise and Tuesday morning. By the afternoon, scattered showers and storms are forecast once again along the sea breeze collision, with conditions very similar to today. But, a slightly more centralized collision is expected, with some drift into the western metro areas possible by the evening.

Hot conditions continue, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices 103-107+. Will need to continue to monitor the need for any Heat Advisories. Regardless, HeatRisk is forecast to remain Moderate to Major for most of the forecast area.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The Atlantic ridge persists over the western Atlantic through the period, with a ridge axis stretched across the local area. Ridging strengthens into the weekend, as high pressure develops through the column over the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, models suggest a wave of SAL moving into the area, helping to provide dry air and increased subsidence. Therefore, while scattered showers and storms remain forecast through mid-week this week, the aforementioned factors will work to limit convection by late week and into the weekend. However, may still see some higher PoP coverage along the SW coast, as easterly flow strengthens and pins the west coast breeze into next week. While drier air will limit convection, any cells that manage to develop will be capable of gusty winds, should they be able to take advantage of increased DCAPE.

Heat remains a concern into early next week, despite some slightly drier air moving into the area. High temperatures in the 90s each day and dew points in the 70s will continue to produce widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Residents and visitors should attempt to limit outdoor activities during the heat of the day, stay hydrated, and take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning. Remember, never leave children or pets unattended in a car for any period of time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions prevailing. Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon/evening should remain over the interior, with little to no impact for TAF sites. Sea breezes produce winds near 10 kts this afternoon, then winds become light and variable overnight. A few showers possible along the east coast of south Florida after sunrise, with VCSH included. Then, scattered storms are forecast once again after 18Z, which could drift towards east coast metro areas.

MARINE

Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

High pressure prevails through this week over the local waters. Light south-southeast winds continue across the Atlantic, while south-southwest winds develop in the afternoons across the Gulf waters with the development of the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will predominantly remain over land areas. However, slow moving storms may drift offshore in the evenings and could produce locally hazardous winds and seas. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less and winds remain under 15 knots outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 20 60 West Kendall 78 94 77 93 / 10 40 20 60 Opa-Locka 80 95 79 94 / 10 30 20 60 Homestead 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 10 50 Fort Lauderdale 81 93 80 92 / 10 30 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 79 92 / 10 30 20 60 Pembroke Pines 81 96 80 95 / 10 30 20 60 West Palm Beach 79 93 78 93 / 10 40 20 60 Boca Raton 80 92 79 91 / 10 30 20 60 Naples 79 93 79 92 / 20 10 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.