textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026 - Smoke from the Hwy 41 wildfire could result in reduced air quality & visibilities across portions of the Miami Metro today. Patches to areas of dense fog will be possible across southwestern Florida through daybreak this morning.

- Dry conditions will prevail with unseasonable heat possible each afternoon through Saturday. The odds of major (level 3 of 4) heat risk across the east coast metro on Saturday continues to increase.

- Rain chances increase during the second half of the upcoming weekend. While uncertainty remains high, there is increasing potential of storms & heavy rainfall across our region.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A subtle but impactful shift in surface wind direction over the last several hours has resulted in a duality of 1) shallow boundary-layer moisture advection across southwestern Florida and 2) wildfire smoke from the Hwy 41 wildfire south of US-41 (Tamiami Trail) now drifting eastward into western suburbs of the Miami metro. 06z Mesoanalysis continues to depict the centroid of weak surface high pressure remaining situated across the eastern Gulf which has set the stage for the decoupling of winds at the surface across inland portions of our region. This nocturnal inversion will set the stage for patchy dense fog across southwestern Florida through daybreak, especially across inland Collier County and Alligator Alley. Further east, light southwesterly to westerly wind flow will trap particulate matter and smoke near the surface in close proximity to the Hwy 41 wildfire which may also result in a pronounced smell of smoke at daybreak across portions of the Miami metro in tandem with lower air quality values.

An active synoptic evolution continues across the continental United States today as transient lobes of mid-level vorticity advect briskly along in a combined southern and polar jet-sream across the southern United States while longwave trough axis's continue to across the Great Lakes and northeastern United States. An expansive mid-level ridge previously present across much of the Gulf will continue to flatten while sliding eastward during the remainder of the work week. In between the active jet & troughing to our north and the mid-level ridge to our south, mid-level flow across South Florida will remain out of a northwesterly direction through the end of the work week. Our attention on the synoptic scale will shift upstream as an amplified subtropical trough will slide eastward into Texas on Friday and set things in motion (low pressure development in the Gulf on Friday night as a frontal boundary pushes eastward) for unseasonable heat on Saturday and inclement weather on Sunday, but much more detail on that in the long term discussion further down below.

In the meantime our weather regime will be dictated by surface features in our vicinity and mesoscale processes. A stalled frontal boundary across northern Florida will remain in place as the axis of weak surface ridging remains in place across the southeastern Gulf. Anticyclonic flow around this surface high to our southwest will result in background wind flow out of a light southwesterly direction today and once again on Friday. This setup at the surface combined with residual dry air and subsidence aloft will set the stage for above average temperatures this afternoon and once again on Friday for most of South Florida (with the exception of coastal communities along the immediate Gulf coast). A pinned Atlantic sea- breeze will result in high temperatures across the east coast metro reaching the upper 80s to low 90s both afternoons as temperatures inland (Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades) could even reach the mid 90s. Normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the low to mid 80s. According to the NWS Prototype Probabilistic Heat Risk, there is a 50-70% (Today) and a 70-90% (Friday) probability of a Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across most of the region.

The axis of surface ridging will slide eastward across the region tonight which will once again support the potential of dense fog across most inland locales late tonight into early Friday. The highest probabilities (40-60%) for reduced visibilities below half a mile will reside across inland southwestern Florida once again.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Although the aforementioned subtropical shortwave will lose amplification & definition on Saturday morning as the next long-wave trough slides southward across the Great Lakes, the infusion of synoptic energy across the region will aide and kick-off the propagation of the surface frontal boundary previously stalled out over the northern Gulf and Florida eastward on Saturday. The right entrance region of a stout jet-streak around the base of the trough will facilitate the development of an initial area of low pressure in the Gulf before a more pronounced area of surface vorticity develops and deepens offshore of North/South Carolina. As the low pressure systems develop and the frontal boundary slides closer to the region, South Florida will be present in the heart of the warm sector, setting the stage for what could potentially be the hottest day of 2026 for South Florida thus far. Warm air advection will be amplified as a low level jet enhances out of the south to southwest. The combination of the moisture surge, breezy southerly to southwesterly flow, and a lack of cloud cover will set the stage for widespread low 90s across the east coast metro areas and into the mid 90s across the interior sections. It's worth noting that the NBM 75th percentile which performs well in these type of flow regimes is notably higher, with potential values in the upper 90s across inland locales and mid 90s not out of the cards for much of the east coast metro. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) will surge higher due to the introduction of higher atmospheric moisture into the region, with a duration of values in the low 100s possible for several hours on Saturday afternoon. According to the NWS Prototype Probabilistic Heat Risk, there is a 60-70% probability of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for much of the east coast metro on Saturday. Unseasonable heat for this time of year could affect anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health systems and industries.

The surface low offshore of the Carolina coast will continue to deepen as it accelerates to the northeast into the northern Atlantic in tandem with the axis of the longwave trough sliding eastward across the Great Lakes. This will result in the continued advect of the frontal boundary southward across the Florida Peninsula Saturday night into Sunday. The latest global and ensemble guidance suite remains in agreement with the timing of the front allowing for higher chances of showers and thunderstorms to push into the region during the day on Sunday, and then those elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain in place through Monday as the frontal boundary is forecast to stall out across our region. There is still some complexity in the forecast as the exact timing of the front and any diurnal heating ahead of the boundary could influence whether a window for strong to severe storms exists. Outside of surface and diurnal dynamics, there are still some discrepancies in model output for the exact placement and evolution of a embedded shortwave. The ECMWF guidance suite still has it passing off further to the north while the GFS suite brings the shortwave a bit closer to the region. The positioning of this shortwave will have significant impacts in regards to the amount of mid level support that will be available. In short, the two big questions for Sunday will be the 1) amount of instability that materializes (largely dependent on frontal timing) and 2) exact placement of synoptic support aloft which may aid in the development of those stronger storms. As we are quickly approaching the window of time where our more reliable mesoscale models (HRRR, RAP, etc) can model the setup, we should have more clarity in the forecast for Sunday over the next 24-48 hours.

Outside of any strong to severe storm threat, the stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of our region with modeled precipitable water values (1.6 to 1.9 inches) near or above the 90th percentile for this time of year could set the stage for heavy rainfall across the region during the second half of the weekend into early next week. This will also continue to be monitored over the next several days with more forecast clarity being realized by the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

South to southwesterly winds of 8 to 12 kts across most eastern sites in South Florida. A Gulf breeze will shift winds westerly for KAPF and nearby locations. Winds become more light and variable overnight, with partly cloudy skies. VFR conditions are expected through the period, but there is a low chance for patchy fog to develop over the Everglades and parts of southwest Florida. No mention in the TAF, but will continue to monitor guidance on whether KAPF may see any visibility impacts.

MARINE

Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Winds will veer to a southwesterly direction across the Gulf waters and out of a southerly direction across the nearshore Atlantic waters today where an afternoon wind surge could result in a brief duration of small craft exercise caution conditions (SCEC) across the northern Atlantic waters. A similar wind flow regime will play out on Friday before winds enhance further in strength, remaining out of a southerly to southwesterly direction during the upcoming weekend. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 2 to 4 feet through the rest of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. The arrival of a frontal boundary in the vicinity of South Florida during the second half of the weekend into next week could result in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the local waters which could bring locally hazardous winds and waves during that time frame.

BEACHES

Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Due to a lingering northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents will persist across the Palm Beaches through the rest of the week. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A nocturnal inversion present across the majority of inland South Florida at daybreak will erode over the remainder of the morning hours as winds gradually enhance out of southwesterly direction. While wind speeds will remain relatively light, enhanced fire behavior remains possible this afternoon as a combination of dry fuels (Fire Potential Forecast of 4) and relative humidity values (mid 30s to low 40s) near critical thresholds is forecast for inland locations once again. A similar evolution is forecast on Friday, with an additional window of enhanced fire behavior during the afternoon hours. Closer to the coast, onshore winds will moderate the airmass slightly precluding lower relative humidity values.

CLIMATE

Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Today's Forecasted High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 88 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 87 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 89

Today's 90th Percentile High Temperature Values: (1 in 10 Chance) Miami (KMIA): 92 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 89 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 91

Today's Record Maximum High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 96 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 97 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 99

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 71 90 75 92 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 67 92 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 71 91 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 70 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 88 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 71 88 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 72 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 69 89 73 93 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 71 88 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 70 87 72 88 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.