textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 718 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are again expected in the afternoon and evening hours through the rest of the weekend. The main hazards from these storms will be gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the rest of the weekend for much of the area. - Drier air associated with the Saharan Air Layer will slowly move into the area, starting late Sunday and into Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 408 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Model consensus show persisting U/L high pressure remaining in place across the region through at least early next week. Meanwhile, the west Atlantic high will continue to stretch its sfc ridge into the central portions of the Florida peninsula today, keeping the current SE flow in place, although onshore flow disruptions will again develop as sea breezes push inland during the afternoon hours. The anticipated arrival of a Saharan Dust layer remains rather uncertain with models not showing definite adverse impacts to the forecast scenario for Sunday. Therefore, will keep following the overall NBM solution with similar POPs/Wx and Temps as today.

Locally, abundant moisture will remain available to support convection each day. MFL 00Z and model soundings still depict PWATs in the 1.8-2.0 inches range, which combined with sea breeze development and eventual outflow collisions, should again support another round of afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms. The generally SE flow will again keep the best chances for convection and thunderstorm activity over interior and western portions of Soflo (PoPs of 60~75%, and 500 mb temps around -8C). But, as in the past two days, a few strong (or even severe) cells will likely develop over some of the Atlantic metro areas, especially early in afternoon with sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Also, a few showers and storms may still develop or drift towards eastern locations during the evening hours. Any thunderstorm that may form will be capable of producing strong damaging winds, frequent lightning and localized flooding.

Temperatures will continue to run around or above normals with heat related issues expected each day. Afternoon highs will again hit the low-mid 90s, and with the abundant moisture in place, heat index values should reach the 104-106 degrees range along the east coast. For the west coast expect heat index in the 104-107 degrees range. HeatRisk will also be in the moderate to major category again today, so people should exercise caution while outdoors, take frequent breaks, stay hydrated and wear light clothing. Avoid prolonged exposure to sunlight and look for shelter if necessary.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 408 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Latest NBM and long range global models seem to finally reflect the initial influence of a SAL by Monday, with POPs/Wx coverage down to the lowest values of the past several days. Single PoPs for the east coast, and up to 25% for interior and western areas. This is driven mainly by drier air intrusion at the mid levels.

The dry spell seems to be short-lived as models show relative good consensus in developing a low pressure system over the SE seaboard region, which sends an associated frontal boundary into the northern half of the state. The boundary will drift southward very slowly through the end of the work week, but its influence should be enough to steadily raise chances of rain and thunderstorms starting Tuesday afternoon. Highest chances of rain are expected in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe with highest PoPs in the 70-80% range each afternoon as deeper moisture filters into the area.

Even with the approaching frontal boundary, pressure gradients should remain relaxed enough to keep winds generally light to moderate, and allow for afternoon sea breezes to develop. Early afternoon convection will likely be driven by the sea breeze boundaries pushing inland. Outflow boundary collisions will likely drive late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms, which will continue to favor interior areas. But some storms may either develop over coastal metro areas early in the afternoon, or drift into them later in the day or in the early evening hours.

HeatRisk at the Moderate to Major level will continue to be the main concern each day. The east coast has the highest probability (60-70% chance) of reaching the Major HeatRisk category at some point. Therefore, the situation will continue to be closely monitored in case a Heat Advisory becomes necessary. Expect afternoon highs to keep reaching the low-mid 90s each day, with a few upper 90s certainly possible, mainly over interior and west coast locations.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 718 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail across all sites today, but vicinity SHRA/TSRA is expected as convection develop throughout the day. Impacts are most likely this afternoon, with the highest confidence for KAPF, but other sites could see sub-VFR conditions as a result as well. Light and variable winds early today give way to gentle easterly-southeasterly winds.

MARINE

Issued at 408 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

High pressure remains in control of the region through early next week. Light to moderate SSE winds will also continue over the Atlantic waters, becoming SSW over the Gulf waters with afternoon sea breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over coastal areas and move over land at times during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Any thunderstorm that forms may produce locally strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain in the 2-3 feet range or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

BEACHES

Issued at 406 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 80 91 80 / 20 20 30 0 West Kendall 92 77 92 78 / 30 30 30 0 Opa-Locka 93 80 93 80 / 20 20 30 0 Homestead 92 79 92 80 / 20 40 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 91 81 91 81 / 20 20 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 91 81 / 20 20 30 0 Pembroke Pines 94 81 94 81 / 20 20 30 0 West Palm Beach 91 80 91 80 / 30 20 30 0 Boca Raton 90 80 90 81 / 20 20 30 0 Naples 93 77 92 78 / 60 30 50 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.