textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Areas of fog, some dense, may again develop overnight into Sunday morning over interior and southwest Florida.

- Dry and comfortable weather continues through Sunday afternoon, when chances for rain increase ahead a frontal approach.

- Above average temperatures continue through this weekend with highs increasing to the mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 102 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Latest sfc and model analyses depict a cold front boundary sliding into the northern half of the peninsula and extending into the NE Gulf waters. Meanwhile, weak mid/uppr lvl ridging remains across the Caribbean and SoFlo, keeping local instability and rain chances suppressed enough, with POPs/Wx grids in single digits today.

Ensembles and NBM solutions depict a weak meso-low developing along the frontal boundary in the northern Gulf, which should migrate over northern Florida and eventually into the west Atlantic waters by early Monday. This will push the frontal boundary further south and closer to the area on Sunday. The overall synoptic setup will result in prevailing S/SW flow, and with SoFlo remaining in the warm sector of the frontal system, expect temperatures to hit the mid-upper 80s today and again on Sunday.

Latest model PWATs show values increasing to around 1.8 inches by Sunday, but with the mid lvl ridge still in place, rain chances remain fairly low. Best chances for scattered showers will be closer to the frontal boundary over the Lake region on Sunday afternoon.

Low level moisture should again conspire with nighttime radiational cooling to bring periods of patchy to localized dense fog tonight into Sunday morning. Best chances remain over interior areas, but locations known for fog development around the Atlantic metro areas like west Miami-Dade and central/western Broward may also see some fog activity, especially near sunrise.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1242 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

The aforementioned cold front over northern-central Florida will finally slide southward on Monday. Chances for showers begin to increase on Sunday night, and cap out Monday afternoon in the 40-50% range. Instability doesn't look too impressive on either day (SBCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range at best), but there will be enough along the coasts and over the local waters that perhaps a few rogue thunderstorms could develop as the front moves through. Cooler, drier air is forecast to move over the area behind the front, and prevail into late next week, with PWATs back to the 0.8-1 inch range and highs in the mid to upper 70s each day.

A few additional surface lows will develop over CONUS in the interim as additional shortwaves progress eastward, with the next cold front to watch coming on the tails of a surface low forecast to develop over the Great Lakes early next week. However, a frontal approach will not occur until the back half of the week, and much uncertainty remains regarding timing and intensity, especially given the complex interactions at play over the continental US during this period. Cluster analysis of days 6-7 show generalized differences between the ECMWF, GEFS and GEPS ensemble members, with the european model generally favoring a slower and weaker trough (which would result in a weaker front and slower approach to our area), while the GEFS/GEPS split the difference in faster/deeper solutions with fewer ensemble members overall. Conclusion? It's too early to lock into anything, but we'll continue to monitor any potential outcome and impacts to the area late next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

While VFR is expected to continue at all terminals for the next 24 hours, some VCSH are possible around PBI, FLL and FXE after 18Z as a front moves into northern Florida. L/V winds tonight, then mainly southerly around 10kt after 15Z. Only exception will be APF where winds shift to the SW after 17-18z as a Gulf breeze develops. Also, brief periods of fog may result in reduced visibilities at APF Sunday early morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1242 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Generally benign boating conditions prevail over the weekend as light to moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze persists. Seas are forecast to remain at 1-3 feet across all local waters. As we head into next week, winds could increase and veer from the north ahead of a frontal passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 70 84 72 84 / 0 10 20 40 West Kendall 66 86 69 84 / 0 10 10 30 Opa-Locka 69 86 71 84 / 0 10 20 40 Homestead 69 85 71 84 / 0 10 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 69 84 71 82 / 0 20 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 69 84 71 82 / 0 20 20 40 Pembroke Pines 68 87 71 84 / 0 10 20 40 West Palm Beach 68 85 69 81 / 0 30 30 40 Boca Raton 68 86 70 83 / 0 20 20 40 Naples 69 83 71 80 / 0 20 50 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.