textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 659 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 - Shower and thunderstorms chances will remain elevated into early next week, and could result in localized flooding and strong to severe impacts each afternoon.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend. However, a frontal passage Monday-Tuesday could bring much cooler temperatures mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Wet and unsettled weather conditions will continue across South Florida this weekend into early next week, with the potential for localized flooding and a marginal risk for severe weather.

Aloft, a deepening trough will exit the Rockies and slide over the Plains today, while a subtle shortwave will drift over the Gulf waters towards the Florida peninsula. Upper level winds will increase in response, and 500mb temperatures will drop to the -12 to -14 C range, well below average for this time of year. Near the surface, a strong area of low pressure will drag a cold front across the Plains, while the previously stationary boundary over our area lifts northward and away from our region. As a result, moisture advection will continue across South Florida as southerly flow persists behind the boundary departure, with PWATs nearing record values for this time of year (1.4-1.7 inches forecast).

The presence of the shortwave and the warm, moist air mass in place will support more widespread convective development over the region, starting mid-morning along the East Coast and continuing intermittently through the day, over the interior and spreading back over the East Coast metro. During this time frame, the greatest threat will be heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding, with accumulations of 1-2 inches possible once again within that 24 hour period, and a 1 in 10 chance of 4-6 inches in some isolated spots.

Furthermore, forcing from the shortwave and significant cooling aloft will promote additional storm growth later this afternoon. Forecast soundings show enhanced instability across much of the region, with CAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg and 700- 500mb lapse rates > 6 C/km. Shear profiles look to remain modest (bulk shear forecast to be between 25-30 kts at best), but all together, this parameter space could support the development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail (around the size of a quarter, or 1 inch), and damaging winds during downbursts. With lower temperatures aloft and a lower freezing level (~13 kft), any storm that grows taller than 20 kft could produce hail. With all of this in mind, WPC has placed the East Coast metro under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of flooding due to excessive rainfall, and SPC has placed the entire region under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this evening.

Guidance shows conditions gradually improving after 8PM when the focus of enhanced instability and shear shifts southwards over the Florida Straits. A few stray showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two could be possible overnight, but the next period of active weather will come late Monday night ahead of the aforementioned cold front approaching the region.

High temperatures today will reach the low to mid 80s as increased cloud coverage helps moderate conditions. Overnight lows will drop to the low 70s along the coast, and mid 60s over the interior. Temperatures on Monday will reach the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The aforementioned strong synoptic complex (consisting of a deep upper level trough and stout surface low and cold front) will continue to progress eastward Monday night, pushing the cold front across our area overnight into Tuesday. This frontal passage will continue to support scattered convective activity Monday night, with the continued potential for a marginal severe weather threat. A cooler airmass will move in behind the front, with temperatures dropping to the low 70s during the day Tuesday and Wednesday, and down to the 40s and 50s. Winds will also surge behind the front, with breezy conditions expected mid week.

Models show the aforementioned front will linger over the western Caribbean waters, helping focus enough moisture and instability in our near vicinity to promote convective activity over our local waters and perhaps even over the East Coast each afternoon. Additionally, guidance is also showing a potential cut-off low break off from weak troughing aloft and drifting over our area late this week, with a surface trough or area of low pressure developing near the surface. This could help increase chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon, especially across the East Coast metro area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

SE winds increase late morning into the afternoon to 10-15 kts. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A moderate to fresh southerly to southeasterly breeze will prevail across all local waters through Monday ahead of a frontal approach late Monday into Tuesday. Winds will increase out of the north behind the front mid-week, potentially resulting in hazardous boating conditions. Seas will remain below 3 feet across the Gulf waters, and between 3-5 feet across the Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers will be possible across all local waters this afternoon and early next week, with potentially rough seas and strong winds near any storms.

BEACHES

Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Palm Beach and Broward county beaches will be at high risk of rip currents today as northerly swell persists.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 73 85 65 / 60 40 50 60 West Kendall 83 69 87 63 / 60 40 50 60 Opa-Locka 83 72 87 66 / 60 40 50 60 Homestead 83 73 86 67 / 60 40 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 80 73 84 63 / 60 40 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 80 73 84 63 / 60 40 60 60 Pembroke Pines 83 73 87 66 / 60 40 50 60 West Palm Beach 82 72 86 60 / 60 50 70 50 Boca Raton 80 72 84 61 / 60 40 60 50 Naples 84 71 84 59 / 70 30 60 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...None. GM...None.