textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early evening.

- Elevated risk of rip currents today for the Palm Beaches and Collier county beaches.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Frontal boundary currently over central FL early this morning will continue to very slowly sag south today towards the lake region by this evening and eventually wash out over South FL on Thursday. At the upper levels, we'll remain under the influence of a longwave trough impacting the entire eastern US. Low level flow today will be more west to southwesterly, which will favor the highest PoPs over the interior and east coast metro. Mainly dry conditions expected this morning, and despite dry air moving in aloft, scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop this afternoon into early evening, however PoPs have been trending slightly lower compared to the past several days model runs. High temps this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few coastal showers are possible overnight, especially over the far southern peninsula, however most will be dry. Low temps will range from the upper 60s over the interior to middle 70s closer to the coasts.

Drier air continues to filter into the area on Thursday with PWAT values falling to 1.3-1.6 inches. Most of the day will be dry, however the dissipating frontal boundary combined with sea breeze interactions will likely touch off some widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from mid afternoon into early evening, with the highest PoPs across the east coast metro. High temps will remain above normal on Thursday ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This weekend into next week will see upper level high pressure settling into the Gulf while an upper low will settle into the eastern Carribean. Surface high pressure will be anchored into the western Atlantic. This will create a moderate easterly flow across South FL for much of the period. Convection will be more of a typical summertime pattern with diurnally driven storms during the afternoon and early evening, with the highest PoPs favoring inland and SW FL each day, and then coastal showers and isolated storms during the overnight period. PoPs are a touch higher than what we would expect to see for this time of year as some additional moisture is tapped into from the upper low over the eastern Carribean. Given the ongoing drought conditions, we'll take any and all rainfall we can get, especially across the Everglades and SW FL.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Light and variable winds this morning becoming SW around 10 kts this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early evening across the east coast metro.

MARINE

Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Increasing swell in the northern Atlantic waters today will result in near advisory level seas of 4-5 ft. Moderate west to southwest breeze developing today. Scattered thunderstorms may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. More benign conditions are expected for the end of the week, however occasional thunderstorms will still be possible each day.

BEACHES

Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

An increasing northerly swell will result in an elevated risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches today. In addition, moderate onshore flow this afternoon will result in an elevated risk for Collier county beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 75 90 74 / 50 10 40 10 West Kendall 92 72 91 70 / 40 10 40 10 Opa-Locka 92 74 91 74 / 50 10 40 10 Homestead 90 74 90 73 / 40 20 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 90 75 87 76 / 50 10 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 89 74 87 75 / 60 10 30 10 Pembroke Pines 92 75 92 76 / 50 10 40 10 West Palm Beach 88 73 87 74 / 70 20 20 10 Boca Raton 87 74 87 76 / 60 20 30 10 Naples 89 75 88 73 / 20 20 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.