textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 730 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026 - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches for much of the work week. Large breaking waves will continue at Palm Beach County beaches through this afternoon. - Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Biscayne Bay & Atlantic waters over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 103 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

05z Mesoanalysis and ACARS data from SoFlo airports early this morning depict the passage of a weak surface frontal boundary to the south of the region, with the boundary now elongated across the Florida Keys & surrounding waters. While the front continues to gradually weaken and become increasingly diffuse, a pressure gradient remains between an expansive area of surface ridging across the western Atlantic waters and the aforementioned boundary. This has resulted in a continuation of breezy to at times gusty easterly surface winds across the region, with frictional convergence along the east coast between the land/sea interface allowing for a slowing of winds and added ascent/lift for additional shower activity generation. ACARS and TOWR soundings have depicted a gradual drying out of the low-level boundary layer with drier mid-level air mixing down which has limited the overall spatial extent of shower activity over the past several hours but in this type of surface flow regime with mesoscale enhancement, isolated to at times scattered shower activity will persist across most of the region over the next 24 to 48 hours. However, residual mid-level dry air aloft will keep activity vertically capped with height which will keep the bulk of convective activity in the form of quick moving shallow showers which will drop brief bursts at times throughout today. While most locations across South Florida will receive less than 0.50" of additional rainfall, a few localized spots could pick up an 1" to 1.5" during the rest of today.

The dissipating frontal boundary and associated envelope of deeper low-level boundary moisture will advect to the west of the region on Tuesday as surface high pressure builds back into the region from the northeast. While surface winds will continue on a gradual lessening trend across the region on Tuesday, the expansion of surface high pressure and continuation of the pressure gradient will result in breezy to at times gusty conditons remaining in the forecast for the east coast of South Florida. Although deeper low level boundary moisture is forecast to transit to the west and out of the region on Tuesday, enough residual lower level moisture will still be in place to support isolated to scattered low topped showers briskly moving along in the east to west flow.

A temperature gradient will remain across the region both this afternoon and once again on Tuesday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the eastern half of the peninsula due to the cooling aspects of the ocean breeze and the western half of the peninsula peaking in the mid 80s. Overnight temperatures will be inverse as the ocean breeze will keep warm and muggy conditons along the east coast with low temps in the 70s whereas inland and western locales will see low temperatures dip into the widespread 60s, even low 60s across cool spots across inland southwestern Florida.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 103 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A persistent easterly breeze will remain the norm throughout the extended period as South Florida remains on the periphery of an expansive area of high pressure situated across the majority of the western Atlantic. Aloft, the axis of mid-level ridging will advect into the western Atlantic waters by Wednesday, gradually elongating and weakening in intensity as 500mb pressure heights gradually decrease during the day. Upstream, amplified mid-level troughing will develop across the central United States and advect eastward on Thursday into much of the southeastern United States. Interestingly, a assortment of deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues to depict this lobe of vorticity slowing across the northern Gulf during the second half of the week and closing off into a cut-off low which is then forecast to transit across the region during the upcoming weekend. While this solution still remains towards the end of the extended period, it appears a more active synoptic pattern may evolve late in the week into the upcoming weekend as the combination of synoptic enhancement aloft and increasing moisture advection at the surface from the east could increase rain chances during this time frame.

High temperatures on Wednesday through the upcoming weekend will be on a slow moderating trend with lower 80s anticipated along the east coast and mid to upper 80s (even a few isolated pockets of low 90s late in the week into the upcoming weekend) across Southwest Florida each afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 730 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Iso/Sct SHRA and breezy to at times gusty easterly flow will persist through the TAF forecast period. Brief occasional MVFR CIGs/VIS in and around SHRA is possible at all terminals through this evening and tonight, although SHRA is expected to end at KAPF this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 103 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the local Atlantic waters through at least mid-week as surface winds remain elevated but waves gradually lessen with height as a northerly swell gradually subsides. Seas will begin to slowly subside over the course of today but are still forecast to remain in the 7-8 feet through this evening. Seas across the Atlantic waters are then forecast to settle in the 5-7 ft range for the middle of the week. This should keep at least marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions over the Atlantic waters through much of this week. Over the Gulf waters, seas will be primarily 1-3 ft with a moderate easterly breeze.

BEACHES

Issued at 103 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Dangerous surf and rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches through most of the work week. A High Surf Advisory remains for Palm Beach County through 2pm this afternoon with a high risk of rip currents continuing through at least Wednesday evening. Always swim at a guarded beach and when in doubt, don't venture out!

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 71 80 71 / 50 20 30 10 West Kendall 82 67 82 67 / 50 20 30 10 Opa-Locka 81 70 82 70 / 50 20 30 10 Homestead 81 71 81 70 / 50 20 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 79 70 79 71 / 50 20 40 10 N Ft Lauderdale 79 70 79 70 / 50 20 40 10 Pembroke Pines 82 71 82 70 / 50 20 40 10 West Palm Beach 79 70 79 70 / 40 20 30 10 Boca Raton 79 70 79 70 / 50 20 40 10 Naples 84 68 85 66 / 50 10 40 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.