textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 216 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Elevated rain chances return to the forecast today, especially along the east coast of South Florida where a thunderstorm or two is possible. - Heavy rainfall could result in minor flooding concerns if the heaviest rainfall falls onshore.

- A high risk of rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches today.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 216 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Latest analysis early this afternoon and current ACARS soundings depict a mesolow just offshore near Key Biscayne that continues to weaken and eventually shift further away from the coastline tonight into tomorrow. Thankfully, the heaviest rainfall from this morning mostly stayed offshore except for touching Key Biscayne. The most recent ACARS soundings show CAPE values mostly under 1000 J/kg and an abundantly dry layer above ~800-750mb. This presents a fairly stable environment. However, lingering weakening coastal convergence effects, positive vorticity advection from the broad troughing pattern, and residual moisture will continue to allow for some weak shower development primarily for east coast metro locations for the rest of today. With the dry layer above 800mb height level, any showers should be of the weaker and low topped variety. Any accumulated rainfall is not anticipated to result in any excessive rainfall or flooding across the region at this point going forward.

Heading into tonight, winds will become light and variable as the pressure gradient lessens and any showers in the area will taper off as nocturnal cooling occurs. There will be chances for isolated to scattered showers again tomorrow in the late morning and afternoon hours due to lingering moisture and the potential development of a sea breeze (cloud cover dependent). Additionally, how warm it gets during the peak heating time of day will play a factor. Nevertheless, rain chances remain low (PoPs of 15-20%) as the mid- level dry air remains present and will inhibit strong convective growth. Any showers once again should be of the weaker variety with the exception of perhaps an isolated shower or two containing some brief moderate or heavier rain.

High temperatures will continue to rise late this week as high pressure begins to build across the region. For Friday, high temperatures are projected to reach the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows tonight into Friday morning will range from the upper 50s and low 60s in Southwest Florida to the mid and upper 60s for Southeast Florida.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 116 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

As zonal mid-level flow sets up across South Florida on Saturday as the axis of mid-level ridging slides eastward across the Carribean Sea, light winds will prevail across the region which will result in diurnally driven meso-low and meso-high circulations developing across South Florida during the day on Saturday. Winds will veer onshore along both coasts during the afternoon hours as air flows from the cooler oceanic waters onshore. With just enough easterly background flow, the inland prorogation of the Gulf breeze will be minimal and with the lack of widespread cloud cover, temperatures will heat up into the mid to upper 80s across portions of inland southwestern Florida during the day on Saturday. Closer to the coast, high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s are currently forecast.

Mid-level ridging will remain to our south on Sunday, gradually advecting eastward during the day. 500mb flow will veer from a zonal direction to southwesterly out ahead of a potent mid-level trough and short-wave that is forecast to sweep across the Plains and the Midwest on Sunday, and then eventually into the Mid Atlantic and portions of the Southeast on Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will rapidly develop off of the Carolina coastline on Sunday and it will push northeastward further into the Atlantic on Monday as it strengthens. A cold front associated with this area of low pressure will gradually push across Northern and Central Florida heading into Sunday night and Monday. The latest NBM forecast depicts the potential of a wide swath of upper 80s across inland South Florida and it would not be out of the realm of possibility for a few inland locales to reach the 90s given the southerly flow and lack of precipitation on Sunday.

The latest 00z European and GFS deterministic suites have trended slower with the frontal passage early next week, although both depict surface flow behind the frontal boundary quickly veering to a northeasterly direction. Temperatures on Monday have trended warmer in the latest forecast with a gradient of temperatures in the upper 70s near Lake Okeechobee and along the Gulf coast with values in the low to mid 80s across southeastern Florida. Given the quick shift of surface winds to an onshore component as opposed to peninsular drainage flow, the airmass will be modified as it arrives across South Florida on Tuesday. After a string of above average days, the potential exists for high temperature values to be below seasonal values early to mid next week. Forecast confidence decreases beyond that time frame, however the Climate Prediction Center does highlight a 70-80% chance of below normal temperatures in the next 6- 10 days. More details will be discussed and ironed out as we move forward in time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Generally VFR expected for the period. SHRA remains in the vicinity with bouts of on station SHRA and lower CIGs possible through this evening. NE winds around 10 kts expected today, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds increase out of the NE again after 15Z tomorrow with potential for more VCSH. At KAPF tomorrow, winds will shift out to the NW.

MARINE

Issued at 216 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Winds and seas have continued to decrease today with much quieter conditions expected for the end of this week. A gentle to moderate east-northeasterly wind flow is expected across the local waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and isolated storms will remain possible across the Atlantic waters through Friday with locally elevated seas and winds possible in and around shower and thunderstorm activity. A period of hazardous marine conditions may once again materialize across the local waters behind the next frontal passage early next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 216 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches through this evening with a moderate risk for the rest of the Atlantic coast beaches during the same time frame. The risk for rip currents is expected to continue to fall into this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 68 81 69 80 / 10 20 10 10 West Kendall 63 82 64 82 / 10 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 66 82 67 81 / 10 20 10 10 Homestead 67 81 68 81 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 67 79 69 79 / 20 30 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 67 80 69 80 / 20 30 20 20 Pembroke Pines 66 82 67 81 / 10 20 10 20 West Palm Beach 67 80 67 80 / 20 20 10 20 Boca Raton 67 81 68 80 / 20 30 20 20 Naples 63 81 64 82 / 0 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.