textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 632 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions through late this morning over the Atlantic waters.

- Moderate risk of rip currents for all South Florida beaches today. - Warm and dry conditions expected for much of the upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

The expected pre-frontal line of showers can be observed in radar/satellite data and should be moving across SoFlo through the late morning hours. Its parent trough/low complex continues to push NE over the NW Atlantic waters and keeping the best dynamic support well away form the area. Latest high-res and global model solutions show fair agreement in keeping mainly a broken line of showers with occasional embedded thunderstorms moving NW to SE through around noon. The front should clear SoFlo and move into the Florida Keys by early this afternoon.

The enhanced winds from the weekend will subside behind the FROPA as pressure gradients quickly relax. This will result in very modest cooler air advection from the north, keeping the most significant cooling impacts over the northern half of the peninsula. Little to no impacts will be felt over SoFlo regarding temperatures with afternoon highs again in the low-mid 80s for much of the area.

For tonight and into Tuesday, a mid-upper lvl ridge will establish across the SE CONUS and reaching into Florida. A drier and more stable air mass will descend upon the state with near zero POPs remaining in place in the forecast. Only change in the prevailing weather pattern will be a brief slight cooling of temperatures right along the Atlantic coast and metro areas Tuesday afternoon as winds veer to the ENE and help in keeping afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s for those locations. Interior and west coast areas should hit low-mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Long range model solutions show deep-layered high pressure remaining in control of the region through the forecast period with a relatively drier and stable airmass in place.

No measurable POPs are anticipated through the rest of the week, outside of maybe a brief coastal shower later in the week. Cloud cover will also decrease each day, allowing for afternoon highs to climb into the mid-upper 80s for the second half of the forecast period. Won't be too surprising if some interior areas reach the 90 degrees mark Friday/Saturday afternoon.

The next potential rainmaker may approach the area on Sunday, but model confidence remains low attm regarding timing and possible impacts across the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Brief periods of MVFR/IFR will be possible along the East Coast early this morning as a line of showers pushes through the area. There are TEMPOs in place for gusty winds and reduced vis/cigs through 13Z. After that, generally northerly to northwesterly winds will prevail through the day. Light and variable winds overnight, then easterly flow on Tuesday as surface high builds.

MARINE

Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

A cold front passage will push a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area this morning. Small craft advisory conditions will continue over the Atlantic marine zones through later this morning. Winds will subside rather quickly in the wake of the frontal boundary, but a northerly swell behind the departing low will result in an uptick in seas across the Gulf Stream. Seas will begin increasing on Tuesday, peak on Wednesday, and subside by the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today for all South Florida beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 83 64 78 66 / 10 0 0 0 West Kendall 84 59 80 62 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 84 63 79 65 / 20 0 10 0 Homestead 84 64 79 66 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 81 64 77 66 / 20 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 81 64 77 66 / 20 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 84 63 80 65 / 20 0 10 0 West Palm Beach 80 63 77 65 / 10 10 10 0 Boca Raton 81 63 78 66 / 20 0 10 0 Naples 76 58 80 60 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.