textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Elevated rain chances return to the forecast today, especially along the east coast of South Florida where a thunderstorm or two is possible. - Heavy rainfall could result in minor flooding concerns if the heaviest rainfall falls onshore.

- A high risk of rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 116 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

06z RTMA Mesoanalysis as well as recent ACARS profiles from KMIA & KFLL continue to depict a continued gradual vertical expansion of saturation in the atmospheric column early this morning. Radar returns from KAMX (WSR-88D Miami Radar) at this hour continue to depict much of the same, a continued "non-stop slug" of shallow capped Nimbostratus with a persistent steady light rainfall pushing onshore along the east coast of South Florida over the past several hours. This is in large part due to South Florida's current placement to the north of a stalled frontal boundary and ongoing coastal convergence along the coast as breezy northeasterly winds are slowed by the frictional influences of land. However, 06z Mesoanalysis depicts the beginning of a complex weather setup that is forecast to occur across our region later today as the aforementioned stationary front over the Florida Straits retrogrades northwards (a pseudo warm front per se) into our region during the early morning hours of today. The combination of the ascent/lift of the boundary, deeper atmospheric moisture pooled across the region, and a dual mesoscale boost of 1) speed and 2) frictional convergence could set the stage for a brief window of heavier rainfall (and localized swaths of higher rainfall totals) along or just offshore of the immediate east coast of South Florida through late this afternoon. With the continued expansion of saturation higher in the vertical column (low and mid level relative humidity) and increasing precipitable water values, convection will no longer be as vertically capped and shallow in nature as the day progresses. Forecast model soundings depict a corridor of higher surface based CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) directly along the coast which could allow an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop. Convection may also be slow moving and pinned along the coast as the 1km and 6km vectors are inverse of each other.

For what is by all means a relatively short-term forecast, a higher than normal level of uncertainty remains as the exact placement of the boundary and location of developing low pressure along the boundary will dictate where the heaviest rainfall will occur today. 0z Mesoscale model output (i.e. HREF) remains split on where exactly the heaviest rainfall totals will occur with two camps emerging: onshore and offshore. Given the stalled boundary, mesoscale phenomena (coastal convergence) at play, and forecast precipitable water values over the 90th percentile for today's date, there is a reasonable worst case (1 in 10 chance) scenario where an isolated location on the east coast of South Florida receives 3+ inches of rainfall today. Most likely rainfall totals along the immediate east coast of South Florida will be in the 0.5-1" range. Depending on the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall (if it indeed occurs overland), there could be some minor flooding concerns even though antecedent conditions across South Florida are dry. The temperature forecast for today is highly contingent on how much convection & cloud cover does (or does not) materialize across our land areas. The current forecast has high temperatures in the upper 70s across the eastern half of the region with temperatures in the low 80s forecast across southwestern Florida.

By tonight, model guidance depicts the surface low and it's associated energy quickly accelerating to the northeast away from our region while the boundary becomes increasingly diffuse. Aloft, mid-level flow will remain out of a southwesterly direction over South Florida as we remain situated between mid-level troughing to the north and a mid-level ridge to the south over the Carribean Sea. The residual moisture associated with the boundary could still support the potential of a few coastal showers tonight and Friday but rain chances will be notably less than what is currently forecast today. As sky conditions clear and rain chances decrease, temperatures will trend up on Friday as forecast high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to low 80s along both coasts to temperatures in the mid 80s inland.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 116 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

As zonal mid-level flow sets up across South Florida on Saturday as the axis of mid-level ridging slides eastward across the Carribean Sea, light winds will prevail across the region which will result in diurnally driven meso-low and meso-high circulations developing across South Florida during the day on Saturday. Winds will veer onshore along both coasts during the afternoon hours as air flows from the cooler oceanic waters onshore. With just enough easterly background flow, the inland prorogation of the Gulf breeze will be minimal and with the lack of widespread cloud cover, temperatures will heat up into the mid to upper 80s across portions of inland southwestern Florida during the day on Saturday. Closer to the coast, high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s are currently forecast.

Mid-level ridging will remain to our south on Sunday, gradually advecting eastward during the day. 500mb flow will veer from a zonal direction to southwesterly out ahead of a potent mid-level trough and short-wave that is forecast to sweep across the Plains and the Midwest on Sunday, and then eventually into the Mid Atlantic and portions of the Southeast on Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will rapidly develop off of the Carolina coastline on Sunday and it will push northeastward further into the Atlantic on Monday as it strengthens. A cold front associated with this area of low pressure will gradually push across Northern and Central Florida heading into Sunday night and Monday. The latest NBM forecast depicts the potential of a wide swath of upper 80s across inland South Florida and it would not be out of the realm of possibility for a few inland locales to reach the 90s given the southerly flow and lack of precipitation on Sunday.

The latest 00z European and GFS deterministic suites have trended slower with the frontal passage early next week, although both depict surface flow behind the frontal boundary quickly veering to a northeasterly direction. Temperatures on Monday have trended warmer in the latest forecast with a gradient of temperatures in the upper 70s near Lake Okeechobee and along the Gulf coast with values in the low to mid 80s across southeastern Florida. Given the quick shift of surface winds to an onshore component as opposed to peninsular drainage flow, the airmass will be modified as it arrives across South Florida on Tuesday. After a string of above average days, the potential exists for high temperature values to be below seasonal values early to mid next week. Forecast confidence decreases beyond that time frame, however the Climate Prediction Center does highlight a 70-80% chance of below normal temperatures in the next 6- 10 days. More details will be discussed and ironed out as we move forward in time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

MVFR ceilings will be prevailing to start the 12Z period with some IFR over SE FL. Light NE winds 5-10 kts after 15Z with scattered showers across the east coast metro. Light and variable winds tonight and overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 116 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

As winds continue to decrease in strength across the region this morning, wave heights across both the Atlantic and Gulf waters will continue to decrease in height as well. A period of benign marine conditions is currently forecast through the end of the week across all local waters outside of any locally elevated seas and winds in and around shower and thunderstorm activity today. A period of hazardous marine conditions may once again materialize across the local waters behind the next frontal passage early next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 116 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across all Atlantic Coast beaches through this morning, before remaining high at Palm Beach beaches and moderate at Miami Dade and Broward beaches this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 68 81 69 / 50 20 30 10 West Kendall 80 63 82 64 / 50 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 80 67 82 67 / 50 20 30 10 Homestead 80 67 81 68 / 40 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 77 68 79 69 / 60 20 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 68 80 69 / 60 20 30 20 Pembroke Pines 80 66 82 67 / 50 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 78 68 80 68 / 60 20 30 20 Boca Raton 79 68 80 68 / 60 20 40 20 Naples 80 63 81 64 / 10 0 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EST this morning for FLZ172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.