textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 602 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters this weekend.

- Reduced visibilities are possible tonight into early Sunday across Alligator Alley as smoke could get trapped close to the ground.

UPDATE

Issued at 602 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

With sunset imminent, attention overnight will shift to the potential of reduced visibilities across Alligator Alley overnight as a nocturnal inversion develops across the region. Light northerly peninsular drainage flow and a stout low level inversion may act to trap smoke close to the ground and across locations downstream of the Buggy Fire location (Alligator Alley, etc). Motorists are advised to exercise caution if they encounter reduced visibilities.

UPDATE

Issued at 1202 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Northwesterly flow has continued at the surface this afternoon, resulting in the continued advection of a dry airmass across South Florida. Relative humidity values have begun to dip into the 30s and 40s as vertical mixing brings drier air down to the surface. While surface winds remain breezy, 850mb winds are more brisk which may transport smoke from any plumes further away. Outside of any enhanced fire weather concerns, it'll be a quiet comfortable day across South Florida as previously forecast.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1224 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

The mid-level and upper-level ridge pattern begins to amplify more and also shift towards the Florida Peninsula throughout today. The surface high with this ridge will be centered in the western Gulf today, but will expand and start to shift eastward for the latter half of the weekend. With exceptionally dry air (PWATs under 0.5") that is in the top 10% of driest days for this date and high pressure building over the area, an extremely calm and comfortable weekend is expected. Temperatures will be beginning to rebound each day, although the ability for them to rise will be hampered by a weak backdoor cold front passing through the region Saturday night. Highs should reach the mid to upper 70s for many areas this weekend with all of South Florida hitting at least the low 70s both days. Overnight lows Saturday night will still be on the chillier side with low to mid 40s expected across Southwest Florida and low to mid 50s for the east coast metro.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1224 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

The ridge pattern over the Gulf and southeast U.S. will remain in place through the first half of next week with the surface high pressure expected to settle over the Florida Peninsula in the Tue- Wed time frame. This will keep extremely quiet weather in place through the middle of next week with temperatures gradually rising each day. By Wednesday, most of the region could see temperatures back into the low 80s.

Heading into late next week, a potent shortwave trough is modeled to advect eastward which will weaken the ridge and eventually force the ridge out of the area. With that said, even with this trough providing forcing for ascent, moisture advection looks to be lacking based on long term ensemble guidance. Therefore, rain chances are still very low to non-existent for this time frame but this is also the most uncertain time period of the forecast with it being at the tail end. We will continue to monitor trends, but currently projected parameters are indicating mostly dry conditions continuing through the end of next week with perhaps just an increase in cloud cover.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR and dry conditions will persist throughout the TAF period as winds remain light overnight. Winds will veer to an ENE direction tomorrow morning before a gulf breeze develops along both coasts, veering flow to the ESE along the east coast and Wrly at KAPF tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1224 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Hazardous winds and seas will continue across the Atlantic waters today as winds remain fresh to strong. Seas in these waters will also remain elevated at 7-9 feet through most of Sunday due to the lingering winds and a northeasterly swell. Conditions should improve for these waters early next week as seas fall back to 3-5 feet or less. Gulf seas will be 3-5 feet through the weekend before falling to 2 feet or less early next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 1224 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

An elevated risk for rip currents will return to the Atlantic beaches this weekend with a high risk expected for them as winds shift to an onshore direction and remain breezy. A moderate risk also exists for the Collier beaches today, but this will fall off on Sunday as winds shift to an offshore direction there.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

The dry air mass will remain over the region this weekend with forecast relative humidity values falling into the 25-35% range later today. 20ft winds are still forecast to remain on the lighter side today due to high pressure building over the area, but transport winds will be a little stronger at 10-20 kts which will support potential for a loss of control. Overall, the combination of the extremely dry air mass and dry vegetation could set the stage for elevated fire behavior across portions of South Florida this afternoon. Lowest relative humidity values today are expected in Glades and Hendry counties. Other interior locations will still see RH's in the 30-35% range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 55 72 57 73 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 49 73 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 53 72 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 53 72 56 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 55 71 57 73 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 55 71 57 73 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 53 73 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 54 71 55 73 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 54 72 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 48 73 52 73 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.