textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 602 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026 - Occasional showers today especially across the east coast metro.

- Hazardous winds and seas in the Atlantic and Gulf waters today. - Another strong cold front could drop across the peninsula late this week, bringing reinforcing cold air and more increased rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1154 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

The cold front continues to work its way southwards through South Florida and slowly wash out through the morning hours on Monday. This boundary will provide a lifting mechanism that will be enough to spark some rain showers across the region (mainly the southern half of the area and east coast metro) late tonight and through Monday morning. Even with some shower development, accumulations are not expected to cause any concerns with the latest forecast highlighting no more than than 0.3-0.5" of rain across South Florida. Highest accumulations are expected across the east coast metro with little to no rain for the Gulf coast since winds shifting to out of the northeast will create some coastal convergence effects along the east coast. Either way, no impactful rainfall is expected and any amount will help alleviate at least a little of the ongoing drought. There will be an uptick in winds as well through the morning hours, but likely not gusting to more than 15-20 mph.

Heading towards the mid-week period, the frontal boundary is expected to stall out over the Florida Straits and there won't be a strong enough push of drier air into South Florida as the front loses its strength. Thus, slight chances for a few showers will continue on Tuesday, although again any accumulation will be low.

High temperatures for the next couple of days are expected in the upper 70s to near 80, with overnight lows Tuesday morning expected in the upper 50s to low 60s for SW Florida and the low to mid 60s for the east coast metro.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1154 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

The front will remain stalled out over the Florida Straits through the entire mid-week period, with its presence helping keep isolated chances for showers in place across the local Atlantic waters and the east coast through Wednesday.

Moving forward into the late week period, the pattern starts to undergo some much bigger changes. Ensemble guidance shows synoptic- scale troughing amplifying across the Eastern Seaboard by the end of the week as meridional jet-stream flow occurs over the Great Plains states. This trough has potential to cover almost the entire Eastern Seaboard from Maine down to Central Florida. As this trough amplifies, near-surface flow in South Florida will shift to a southwesterly direction on Wednesday, which will increase warm air advection and moisture advection over the area for shower development (PWATs around 1.5"). By Thursday and into Thursday night, the attendant cold front from the trough will rush southwards and cause an increase in rain chances again on Thursday with PoPs around 40% before a much colder and drier air mass settles in behind the front on Thursday night. This front could drop temps late Thursday night into the 30s and 40s across the region. Even with this more active weather pattern, impacts from rainfall are not expected so the primary item to monitor will be the colder temperatures. High temperatures across the region on Friday may not reach 70 due to this colder air.

The forecast becomes less certain heading into the weekend, but conditions are expected to be much calmer for Friday and Saturday as a more stable/zonal pattern and the abundantly dry air mass settle in. Beyond that, guidance hints at another front possibility for the Sun-Mon time frame, but this is highly uncertain given that it is at the very end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Prevailing MVFR ceilings this morning across SE FL, with some occasional showers. Ceilings should improve by this afternoon. NNE winds 5-10 kts this morning increasing to 10-15 kts this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1154 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Cold front pushes through tonight before stalling out over the Florida Straits for the early week period. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front through Monday morning. Winds will increase out of the north-northeast behind the front, resulting in hazardous marine conditions through Monday night. Quieter conditions are then expected through mid-week, although some isolated to scattered showers will remain possible.

BEACHES

Issued at 1154 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

A strong northerly wind surge will promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline today. This high risk is likely to last into mid-week as winds shift to an east-northeast direction.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 67 79 67 / 30 20 30 20 West Kendall 78 62 80 62 / 30 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 78 66 79 66 / 20 20 30 20 Homestead 78 66 80 66 / 40 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 76 67 77 66 / 20 20 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 76 67 77 67 / 20 30 30 20 Pembroke Pines 77 65 78 64 / 20 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 76 66 76 65 / 10 30 30 20 Boca Raton 77 66 78 66 / 10 30 30 20 Naples 78 62 79 63 / 10 10 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ610-630.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GMZ656-657- 676.