textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 646 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon over interior and Southwest Florida.

- Persistent easterly winds will maintain a High Risk of Rip Currents into the weekend.

- Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the eastern half of South Florida and western Collier County today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Deep-layered high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic, while a disturbance north of South Florida continues to lift away from the region. Guidance suggests drier air will filter into South Florida today, keeping PWATs slightly below climatological norms and suppressing PoPs across the East Coast metro areas. However, sufficient low-level moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along sea breezes pushing inland this afternoon. A moderate southeasterly steering flow will push the primary focus of convection further west, with the highest PoPs (40-50%) centered around Southwest Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region.

As the surface high pressure ridge axis shifts southwestward toward the Florida peninsula on Sunday, winds will gradually relax into a lighter easterly regime. PWATs are expected to recover back to climatological norms, giving way to a more typical summertime sea- breeze pattern. Expect isolated to scattered showers along the East Coast during the morning hours, before boundary collisions and diurnal heating shift the highest convective coverage inland and toward the Gulf Coast by the afternoon.

Highs will reach the low to mid-90s today and Sunday. Peak heat index values could reach 105-110 F, but duration is expected to fall short of advisory criteria. Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the eastern half of South Florida and western Collier County.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A typical sea-breeze-driven convective pattern is expected to persist through next week. Under prevailing easterly flow, early morning showers remain possible over the Atlantic waters and coastal areas each day, giving way to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the interior and Southwest Florida.

Guidance continues to indicate a plume of Saharan dust will be approaching South Florida toward the middle of the work week. This influx of drier could potentially suppress overall convective coverage through Friday. Heat will remain the primary forecast concern through next week, with maximum temperatures hovering in the mid-90s and peak heat indices ranging between 100-105 F for much of the region, except along the immediate Atlantic coast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Widely scattered coastal showers across the east coast metro this morning. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening over interior and SW FL. SE winds 5-10 kts becoming 10-15 kts this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds will persist across the local coastal waters through the next few days. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may result in locally gusty winds and brief periods of rough seas. Outside of convection, seas will generally remain 2 to 3 feet through early next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in effect for Palm Beach and Broward beaches through the end the day. The rip current risk should gradually decrease into early next week as winds relax across local waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 81 92 81 / 10 20 20 10 West Kendall 92 78 92 80 / 10 20 30 10 Opa-Locka 93 80 93 81 / 10 20 20 10 Homestead 92 80 92 80 / 10 20 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 81 90 81 / 10 20 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 82 91 81 / 10 20 30 10 Pembroke Pines 92 81 91 82 / 10 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 92 80 91 80 / 20 20 40 0 Boca Raton 90 81 90 82 / 10 20 30 10 Naples 92 77 92 77 / 40 30 70 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...None. GM...None.