textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 643 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- High probabilities of heat-related impacts across urban areas through Monday. Residents and visitors with outdoor plans should take precautions to avoid heat-related illness.

- The next chance for rain arrives early next week as a frontal boundary approaches the region.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

A stout mid-level high pressure (characterized by 593 dm heights) centered over western Cuba today will slowly shift east through Saturday and remain anchored from the central Bahamas across Cuba. South Florida will remain under the stable and dry influence of this high pressure as any influence from the broad, low-amplitude trough over the eastern two-thirds of North America stays to our north. By late Saturday afternoon, a shortwave at base of this longwave trough will approach the Texas Gulf coast but still be far enough away from South Florida for any significant changes in sensible weather impacts.

At the surface, a frontal system across North Florida and the northern Gulf coast is expected to remain stationary through Saturday as there isn't enough push from the longwave trough to move the front southward. As the surface and low levels, the surface/low- level ridge over the Straits of Florida will nudge northward across the southern FL peninsula on Saturday and introduce slightly more of a southerly component to the low level wind flow. As a result, temperature and (most notably) humidity levels are expected to increase as the weekend progresses and lead to an increasing heat threat. Today's temperatures are on track to reach the lower to mid 90s over interior sections including outlying suburbs along both coasts, with upper 80s to near 90 closer to the coasts as the seabreezes push through those areas early this afternoon and keep temperatures slightly lower. Surface/low-level moisture levels are remaining relatively low today so heat index values will likely stay in the 90s most areas.

As mentioned above, increasing humidity on Saturday will cause heat indexes to reach or exceed 100F over most areas, possibly reaching 103F to 105F over inland SW Florida. While it's highly unlikely that we'll meet the criteria for heat advisories, NWS Experimental HeatRisk is showing near-certain major (Level 3) impacts over SE Florida with medium chances of major impacts across portions of SW Florida. The higher HeatRisk values over SE Florida are related to low temperatures Saturday morning in upper 70s to around 80, not offering much relief from the daytime heat.

Rain chances are virtually nil today and tonight as moisture values remain low. The increase in low level moisture/humidity on Saturday will not translate to the mid and upper levels, therefore rain chances will be no more than 20% and confined to the Everglades where afternoon seabreeze convergence is maximized.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

12z model guidance supports previous trends of gradually increasing PoPs Sunday and Monday as moisture continues to increase and the frontal system across North Florida starts to make slow southward progress. Highest PoPs in showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday (40-50%) will be in the Lake Okeechobee area and Palm Beach County during the afternoon hours as S-SW flow focuses convergence in those areas, with PoPs in the 20-40% range down to Miami-Dade County and less than 20% PoPs along the Gulf coast where the westerly flow will keep convection inland of those locales. The front will likely linger near or over South Florida Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping rather high rain chances (30-60% highest east) over all but the immediate Gulf coast. Some drying is possible at the end of the forecast period.

Temperatures and HeatRisk will likely peak Sunday and Monday, with moderate to major impacts everywhere, and even a 20-30% chance of Extreme (Level 4) HeatRisk. Heat index values will once again reach or exceed 100F most areas. Some relief from the heat is forecast beginning Tuesday as clouds and precipitation associated with the front brings temperatures down at least a little.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR with dry conditions expected for most of the forecast period. Seabreezes on Saturday may trigger a few SHRA/isolated TSRA just inland of FLL-PBI corridor after 20z, but too few expected to mention in TAFs. Seabreezes diminishing to variable wind after 04z, then S-SW 5-10 knots after 13z, followed by seabreezes 10-12 knots pushing inland from both coasts after 17z.

MARINE

Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Generally benign marine conditions expected today with surface winds veering more southerly across Atlantic waters. Wind direction will be quite light and variable across Gulf waters today. Wave heights remain 1-3 feet over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 77 92 79 91 / 0 0 10 10 West Kendall 74 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 77 93 78 93 / 0 10 10 10 Homestead 77 91 78 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 90 80 89 / 0 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 77 91 79 90 / 0 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 78 95 80 94 / 0 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 77 92 79 91 / 0 10 10 20 Boca Raton 79 90 80 89 / 0 10 10 10 Naples 75 91 75 92 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.