textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 723 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Scattered showers will develop this afternoon, with coverage most likely across interior and southwest FL. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds possible.

- Temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon.

- A more unsettled pattern appears possible towards the end of the week, with chances for localized flooding possible.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Ridging will continue to build in from the western Atlantic today, with an accompanying area of high pressure near the surface driving easterly/southeasterly winds and moisture advection across South Florida. These developments will help promote continuing afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region, starting along sea breeze boundaries in the late morning/early afternoon period, then proceeding inland into the evening. Forecast soundings show ample instability and near climo low-level moisture, but lack of support and warm temperatures aloft, along with modest lapse rates will likely inhibit any severe potential associated with any of these storms. Nevertheless, frequent lightning strikes, heavy rainfall and gusts 40-50 mph could be possible with some of the stronger storms.

The pattern shifts a little starting on Wednesday as another upper level trough starts to build over the Ohio Valley, slightly weakening ridging over our area. This will help enhance lift over the region and in turn promote a slightly more active and unsettled afternoon on Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings show a much moister atmospheric column, with PWATs back up to 2 inches or more across much of the area. With easterly/southeasterly winds prevailing, convection will still begin along the sea breeze boundary and progress inland, but coverage is likely to be more numerous than previous days (with PoPs in the 60-80% range).

Temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Heat indices will linger in the low 100s, but cloud coverage associated with storm activity should help mitigate values rising into the 105-110F range. Overnight temperatures will also remain fairly balmy, with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s across the East Coast, and down to the mid 70s across the interior.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the extended period as South Florida remains entrenched in an area of weakness between two ridges, and the upper level trough causing this weakness extends south across the Appalachian ridge. At the same time, some of the ensemble suites are hinting at a few tropical upper tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) meandering across our region, which could enhance instability and lift and result in more widespread unsettled weather. In fact, the NBM is picking up on this possibility as we head into the weekend, with Friday afternoon potentially being one of the wetter ones in the entire forecast period (with 60-80% chances of rainfall and QPF in the 1-2 inch range), and activity being maximized across the interior and southwest portions of South Florida. With the potential for more widespread coverage, and the added support from features aloft, the heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding for portions of southwest FL. We'll continue to monitor this potential solution and see how models trend as the week progresses.

Ridging looks likely to start building back over the weekend and as we head into next week. Temperatures should remain in the low to mid 90s each afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 723 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Light and variable winds early this morning become a gentle easterly/southeasterly breeze late morning. Isolated showers along the east coast eventually developing into thunderstorms and pushing inland through the day. Activity decreases with nightfall, with a return to light and variable flow.

MARINE

Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Benign boating conditions will prevail across all local waters as light to moderate winds continue. Across the local Atlantic waters, easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail, while westerly winds are forecast over the local Gulf waters. Scattered showers and storms are expected each day, mainly in the morning hours and again in the late evening hours across the local waters. Locally hazardous winds and rough seas may occur near any storm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 80 91 80 / 20 40 50 30 West Kendall 92 78 91 77 / 30 40 50 30 Opa-Locka 92 79 92 79 / 20 30 50 30 Homestead 92 78 91 79 / 20 40 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 92 81 91 80 / 20 30 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 92 80 91 81 / 20 30 50 30 Pembroke Pines 92 80 91 80 / 20 30 50 30 West Palm Beach 92 78 92 78 / 30 20 50 30 Boca Raton 91 79 90 79 / 20 30 50 30 Naples 92 77 91 77 / 20 20 70 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.