textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1252 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

- Mostly dry and seasonable weather through Saturday afternoon. A few showers may develop late Saturday afternoon and Sunday as a front reaches central Florida. - Moderate risk of rip currents continues today for all Atlantic beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 1252 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Patchy to areas of smoke was added to the grids along the western portion of Alligator Alley in Collier County. Area web cams show some smoke near MM 98 on I-75. This may briefly increase in coverage as the Gulf breeze kicks in this afternoon before becoming fairly localized this evening as the winds decrease.

High pressure remains in control today resulting in plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Moisture begins to increase tomorrow as a weak frontal boundary starts to lift north resulting in a chance of showers over SE FL during the second half of tomorrow and a better chance across South FL on Sunday. Drier and cooler weather still appears on track early next week as another cold front is projected to cross the state.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Models show good agreement in bringing deep high pressure over the area in the wake of a dry FROPA, which will keep generally dry and pleasant weather conditions in place today with no mentionable POPs. As the sfc ridge moves into the northern half of the peninsula, winds across SoFlo to a more easterly flow today. 00Z MFL sounding data depicts very dry air above 850mb, along with PWATs around 0.6 inches. Model PWATs go even lower (0.4-0.5 inches).

The air mass will remain fairly stable today with mild temperatures and pleasant weather conditions prevailing. Afternoon highs will remain in the upper 70s or around 80 near the Gulf coast. Similar conditions continue on Saturday, except for a light modification of the air mass allowing for highs to be a couple of degrees warmer. Coldest temps will remain around the Lake region with Saturday morning lows in the mid-upper 50s, while the metro areas of Soflo should remain in the upper 60s.

Some low-level moisture also filters into the southern-most areas of the CWA Saturday afternoon, with NBM bringing 20-30 POPs for much of Miami-Dade. Thus, a few passing showers will be possible, mainly south of I-75.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

For Sunday, ensembles show a strong mid/upper low developing over the NE CONUS migrating east, which drags an associated sfc boundary into the SE states and northern Florida. This will weaken the ridge and allow for additional moisture to push northward across SoFlo, with 20-40 POPs mainly north of I-75, and up to 60 percent chance of showers with embedded thunderstorms for the Atlantic metro areas Sunday late morning and early afternoon.

The front impacts should be short-lived as reinforcing high pressure quickly follows. By Sunday evening, another shot of northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across Soflo. POPs drop back to single digits on Monday, and close to zero through the rest of the long term. Coolest days should be Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise with lows dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Easterly winds around 10 kts this afternoon, with a mid afternoon Gulf breeze expected at APF. Light and variable winds expected overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Moderate easterly winds continue through early Sunday, then winds shift northerly and increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions will likely reach advisory levels by Monday morning with the stronger winds, especially over the Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, conditions should remain fairly benign through the weekend with a few showers returning to the southern Atlantic waters by Saturday.

Gulf Stream Hazards: None.

BEACHES

Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents continues for all Atlantic beaches today. The risk will again increase early next week with the passage of another frontal system.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 68 80 69 80 / 0 20 60 50 West Kendall 63 81 65 81 / 0 20 60 50 Opa-Locka 66 81 67 81 / 0 20 60 50 Homestead 67 81 68 81 / 0 30 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 68 79 68 80 / 0 20 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 68 79 69 80 / 0 10 60 50 Pembroke Pines 65 81 67 81 / 0 20 60 50 West Palm Beach 66 79 68 80 / 0 0 50 50 Boca Raton 68 81 68 81 / 0 10 60 50 Naples 60 82 66 80 / 0 10 40 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.