textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 129 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

- High risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches today.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly over the interior areas of South Florida.

- Temperatures will remain above normal.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A decayed frontal boundary will linger over the Florida Straits today and into Saturday while a surface low tracks from east to west across the southern Florida Peninsula. Simultaneously, broad mid- level and upper-level troughing will encompass the SE U.S. as the longwave trough advects through the area towards the western Atlantic. While these mentioned features will provide some weaker sources of lift, they alone are not expected to have enough strength to outweigh the lack of deep moisture. Overall PWATs in the hi-res models are showing 1.4-1.7", but this is misleading as this moisture is extremely shallow (all of it is below the 750-800mb layer with ample dry air above this). Therefore, air parcels will have an extremely tough time breaking this inhibitive profile that also highlights a weak capping inversion in the afternoon. Nevertheless, the combination of multiple lifting mechanisms (stationary front, sea breezes, surface low and outflow boundary collisions) and steeper low level lapse rates might just be enough to produce a couple of thunderstorms in the later afternoon and evening hours today and perhaps an isolated occurrence of a stronger to marginally- severe storm. A quick spin-up could also be possible due to increased surface vorticity along the surface low propagation. However, the chances for a stronger to marginally-severe storm or spin-up are extremely conditional and will require all factors to come together at the right time in order to overcome the cap of the abundantly dry air above the boundary layer.

For Saturday, upper-level ridging will begin to expand more over the Florida Peninsula and across most of the Eastern Seaboard, which is expected to shift low-level and mid-level flow to out of a southerly or southeasterly direction this weekend. This will create a flow pattern suitable for increased moisture advection to South Florida from the Caribbean. Thus, even though the ridge pattern should suppress stronger convection, we are now entering the time of year where increased heating will lead to enhanced sea breeze circulations that will provide forcing necessary for showers and storms. General weak flow will be present under the ridge, so both the Atlantic and Gulf breezes will be able to advance inland on Saturday and merge over the interior, so this will be the focus area for most of the shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday. PoPs for Saturday are 40-50% over these areas and 15-30% closer to the coasts and metro areas. The threat of strong storms is not expected for Saturday with the only concerns being sub-severe winds and heavy downpours.

High temperatures for today and Saturday will range from the upper 80s to low 90s for the east coast metro to the low to mid 90s for Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A lobe of mid-level vorticity will advect across the region during the second half of the weekend via the southern branch of the jet-stream as an expansive mid-level ridge gradually builds across much of the Gulf during this time frame. This will occur in tandem with an envelope of deeper atmospheric moisture associated with a diffuse boundary over the Florida Straits retrograding back into the region. This will usher in precipitable water values that are forecast to be near the 90th percentile for the date (1.7 to 1.9 inches). At the surface, anticyclonic flow around surface high pressure situated in the western Atlantic waters will allow for winds to remain out of a breezy east- southeasterly component during the second half of the weekend which will support a typical easterly flow wet season pattern with overnight and morning shower and isolated thunderstorm activity developing across the Gulfstream waters and eastern half of South Florida before pushing westward and increasing in spatial coverage across the peninsula towards southwestern Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. The latest forecast continues to depict 70-80% PoPs across much of southwestern Florida on Sunday afternoon with the overall flow regime indicating that activity could move northwestward along the pinned Gulf breeze. While 500mb temperatures are close to average, forecast model soundings reveal the potential of residual dry air in the vertical column with an inverted "V" type of setup. Strong wind gusts, frequent to excessive lightning, small hail, and heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm that develops during the afternoon hours, especially along the Gulf breeze.

Given the easterly flow regime and the inland progression of the Atlantic sea-breeze, an afternoon temperature gradient is forecast across the region with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s forecast across the east coast metro area to maximum temperature values in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Apparent temperatures (feels-like temps/heat indices) are forecast to max out into the low 100s across coastal southwestern Florida with values in the mid to upper 90s across the rest of the region. Probabilistic guidance continues to highlight a high (90-100%) probability of Moderate HeatRisk across both metro areas during the second half of the weekend with a low (10-30%) probability of Major HeatRisk across isolated pockets of both metros. A Moderate HeatRisk affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate cooling/hydration, and some health systems and industries.

By Monday, deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to hint at the development of a mid-level low just to the east of the region over the northwestern Bahamas with the continuation of mid-level ridging across the southern Gulf. 500mb temperatures are forecast to cool to between the 10th-25th percentile which may support the potential for strong storms along the Gulf breeze during the afternoon hours with the same general hazards possible like Sunday. Once again easterly flow will result in the potential of showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight/during the morning across the eastern half of the region before the foci of diurnal convection sets up over southwestern Florida on the confluence of the gulf breeze. High temperatures will once again range from the mid to upper 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Triple digit apparent temperatures are forecast to once again be realized across southwestern Florida on Monday afternoon.

Not much change as we head into the mid-week period as South Florida will remain situated between mid-level ridging to our southwest and the mid-level cut-off low to our east. 500mb flow will remain out of a northerly component although the main driving mechanism of convection patterns will remain the predominantly easterly surface flow. The highest rain chances each afternoon/evening will continue to favor southwestern Florida. Maximum temperatures will also remain status quo with high temperature values in the low to mid 90s forecast across SW Florida with temperatures in the upper 80s across the east coast metro.

Towards the end of the long term period, forecast model guidance hints at the departure of the cut-off low to the northeast and an enhancement of mid-level ridging across the region. Deeper atmospheric moisture will remain across the region at this time which will still facilitate the daily occurrence of showers and storms across the region with the highest rain chances still draped over southwestern Florida each afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Surface winds will continue to veer onshore at both coasts for the remainder of today before becoming light and variable shortly after sunset. SHRA/TSRA will develop across inland locations but all terminals should remain VFR and dry throughout the remainder of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A gentle to moderate easterly breeze is expected to develop by this afternoon across the Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, a westerly breeze will develop across the Gulf waters. A few showers or isolated storms will be possible today which may result in briefly hazardous winds and seas. Showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage this weekend and into next week. Atlantic seas will be 2-4 feet through this weekend with Gulf seas at 2 feet or less for the same time frame.

BEACHES

Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A high risk for rip currents is in effect for the Palm beaches beginning this afternoon and continuing into tonight. An elevated risk is expected for the other Atlantic coast beaches heading into this weekend, which also has the potential to become a high risk.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 88 77 87 / 10 30 20 60 West Kendall 73 90 75 89 / 10 30 20 60 Opa-Locka 76 89 77 88 / 10 30 20 60 Homestead 75 88 77 88 / 10 30 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 86 78 85 / 10 20 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 76 86 77 85 / 10 20 30 50 Pembroke Pines 77 90 78 90 / 10 30 20 60 West Palm Beach 77 86 77 86 / 10 30 20 40 Boca Raton 78 86 78 86 / 20 30 20 50 Naples 73 91 74 93 / 10 20 10 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.