textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 618 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Drier conditions will push across most of South Florida through the rest of the weekend and into early this week.

- Minor coastal flooding will continue around periods of high tide through the rest of the weekend and into Monday morning.

- Chances of showers will increase during the second half of the week as a stronger cold front approaches and moves through the region. Behind the front, the coolest airmass of the season so far could push over the region by next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

While mid level zonal flow will continue across the region today, weak mid level ridging will gradually start to move over the area from the Gulf as Monday progresses. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will eventually stall out just to the south of the region today before gradually washing out tonight into Monday. At the same time, high pressure centered to the northwest will gradually build into the region behind the front today through Monday. With plenty of subsidence occurring behind the frontal boundary throughout the atmospheric column, this will allow for PWATs to lower as they will generally range between 1.1 and 1.3 inches across most areas today into Monday. The only exception to this will be over the extreme southern area of the peninsula which will be closer to the front where PWAT values will be slightly higher. The drier air mass will help to keep mostly dry conditions in place through the rest of the weekend and into Monday, with the only exception being a very low chance of a passing shower or two over the extreme southern areas closer to the front. Any shower that would develop during this time frame would be low topped and short lived. High temperatures today and Monday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s, however, some locations south of Alligator Alley could rise into the upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Weak mid level ridging remains in place across the region heading into Tuesday while surface high pressure to the north gradually shifts eastward. Heading into the middle of the week, the mid level ridging will gradually start to give way to a mid level trough as a shortwave impulse passes off to the north of the region. At the surface, high pressure will gradually weaken over the area on Wednesday as it pulls away to the northeast. While most of Tuesday will remain on the drier side, some moisture advection will take place on Wednesday as the mid level wind flow becomes more southwesterly. This additional moisture moving into the region may be enough to introduce a low end chance of showers during the afternoon when instability will be maximized due to peak diurnal heating. High temperatures both on Tuesday and Wednesday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas. Some locations south of Alligator Alley in Southwest Florida may see highs in the upper 80s each day.

Moving into the second portion of the week, the weather pattern across the region will change as mid level troughing will rapidly amplify over the Eastern Seaboard during this time frame. At the surface, a developing area of low pressure will push eastward from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic states and then eventually off the Northeastern coastline during this time frame. The frontal boundary associated with this system will gradually approach and move through South Florida during the end of the week timeframe. Uncertainty still remains rather high in this part of the forecast as the global and ensemble guidance suite is still in disagreement in regards to the timing of this frontal passage across the region. The ECMWF suite continues to show a more progressive and faster frontal passage while the GFS solutions do show a slower passage through the area. While the exact details still need to be worked out over the next several days, it does look like chances of showers will increase heading into the Thursday and Friday timeframe across South Florida as the front pushes through. While thunderstorm chances look to be on the lower end at this point due to the best dynamics and instability remaining off to the north of the region, this will need to continue to be monitored to make sure these trends continue.

Behind the front, strong high pressure will build back into the region from the northwest causing winds to shift and increase rapidly out of the west northwest as cold air advection takes over. While uncertainty may remain high in regards to the timing of the frontal passage during the end of the week, trends are pointing towards below normal temperatures and much drier conditions heading into next weekend. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

The weather will remain mostly dry across the TAF sites today into tonight. The only exception to this is over TAFS KMIA, KOPF, and KTMB where there could be a few showers this afternoon. However, the coverage will be few and far between to put into the these TAF sites. The ceiling and vis at all of the TAF sites will remain in the VFR conditions today into tonight. Winds will mainly be northeast today at 5 to 10 knots, except for KAPF where it should become northwest in the afternoon hours due to the west coast sea breeze developing.

MARINE

Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

A gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze will develop across most of the local waters through Monday. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become north northwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 1 to 3 feet through Monday while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame. Some isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out across the southern Atlantic waters through Monday.

BEACHES

Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion of the week. Minor coastal flooding will also remain possible along the east coast during each high tide cycle through the rest of the weekend and into early Monday morning due to the King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 84 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 10 West Kendall 85 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 85 72 85 72 / 10 10 10 0 Homestead 85 73 84 73 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 71 83 72 / 0 0 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 84 70 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 86 70 85 71 / 0 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 84 69 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 83 70 82 71 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 84 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.