textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 134 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 expected each day through the middle of the week. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Marginal risk of strong to damaging wind gusts and hail this afternoon, mainly near the Lake O region and northern Palm Beach county. - Drier air over the region will lead to lower rain chances overall, however scattered showers and storms may develop across interior areas each afternoon and push towards the coastal areas during the early evening hours.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The further south you go along the Florida peninsula, the drier and dustier it gets. An upper low meandering over the Mid-South will keep a stationary boundary just north of Florida, which will allow for rich Gulf moisture to converge all along the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will flatten slightly and shift west over the Florida Straits, but surface high pressure will continue to dominate the wind pattern over the majority of SoFlo. This pattern will keep the Saharan air mass stretched across the Caribbean and southern Gulf, leading to another day of hazier and drier conditions. As a result, SPC mesoanalysis indicates that there is a pretty good north-to-south moisture gradient across the peninsula, with PWATS up to 2.4 inches near the panhandle and as low as 1.4 inches over the Florida Keys. The PoPs for today reflect this moisture gradient, with the highest chances of showers and storms (45% chance) near the Lake Okeechobee region. PoPs decrease further south, with mostly sunny conditions and only isolated showers expected for Dade and mainland Monroe.

The recent MFL 12z sounding shows a pretty similar profile to yesterday, with a stout dry layer between 950 and 600 mb. With little to no forcing aloft and the drier air in place, convection should once again be limited for most areas through the afternoon. However, similar to yesterday, CAMs have convection firing up along the Atlantic breeze in more moist central Florida. This activity looks to zipper southward along sea breeze and outflow collisions, with activity spilling into northern Palm Beach and Glades county. Elsewhere, sea breeze collisions over interior South Florida may create a a few isolated storms over the Everglades through the late afternoon. Like yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. Plenty of instability and steep low level lapse rates would support strong convection through the evening. The mid level dry air may contribute to a few strong to damaging wind gusts, with DCAPE once again in the 900 to 1000 J/kg range. Lastly, with 500 mb temperatures near -9 C, there were also be a small chance of large hail. The strength of updrafts in South Florida will probably be dependent on the activity in Central Florida. The strong outflow boundaries from storms yesterday were able to retain a lot of energy as they pushed southward. As a result, a few strong storms were even able to develop in the in drier and more stable air in Broward. A similar scenario could play out this afternoon, which is why PoPs were kept in the 20 to 30% range for Broward and Miami-Dade county.

For Tuesday, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will keep PoPs on the lower end of the spectrum for most of South Florida, up to 40%. Once again the better moisture will be near the Lake Okeechobee region, with isolated to scattered storms forming along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions over interior South Florida. Above average temperatures will continue, with widespread Major HeatRisk expected. Heat indices will once again be in the 100 to 108 F range, leading to an increased threat of heat illness for people without proper hydration and cooling.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

High pressure begins to strengthen directly across the region by mid- week, and will be propagating westward into the Gulf. This will lead to a lighter flow regime, with very light and variable flow overnight, and onshore flow dominated by sea breezes along each coast. Drier Saharan air remains entrenched across the area through the end of the week, although enough moisture should remain for at least a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms to develop with the sea breezes across interior areas each afternoon. Rain chances remain below average - around 20-30% - maximized across interior and Southwest Florida for the Wednesday-Friday period. Heading into the weekend SAL impacts begin to diminish and rain chances should begin to increase into the 30-40% range, still maximized across interior South Florida as sea breezes will continue to dominate any convective initiation. Little fluctuation in high temperatures through the period with highs in the mid to upper 90s each day. Heat advisory potential will be explored each day. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for all sites through the period. Isolated to scattered storms are expected for interior South Florida, but have included VCTS for Palm Beach and Broward terminals late in the afternoon. A Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF, where VCTS has also been included. Activity wanes overnight, and winds become light and variable. However, early in the evening, there is a signal that there could be a brief northerly wind shift across the region for a few hours.

MARINE

Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Drier conditions expected across local waters through much of this week. Moderate east- southeast flow continues to prevail with wave heights remaining 3 feet or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 95 80 95 / 10 10 10 10 West Kendall 77 96 77 95 / 10 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 80 97 80 96 / 10 10 10 10 Homestead 80 95 80 94 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 81 94 81 94 / 10 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 80 94 81 94 / 10 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 81 97 81 97 / 10 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 79 95 79 95 / 20 20 20 10 Boca Raton 80 93 80 93 / 10 10 10 10 Naples 78 94 79 95 / 20 0 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.