textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 235 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Quiet weather continues across South Florida through the end of the week with a gradual warming trend into early next week.

- Patchy to dense fog will be possible across inland and Southwest Florida early this morning.

- An additional frontal boundary is expected lake weekend into early next week which will bring the next chance for scattered showers on Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Patchy fog, dense in spots, has developed early this morning across areas of southwest and the interior. This prompted the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory for Collier county, and could necessitate the potential extension to Glades and Hendry as the night progresses. Conditions are forecast to continue to deteriorate as the morning hours pass, with medium to high chances of fog reaching the westernmost portions of the East Coast metro around sunrise. Commuters across South Florida are encouraged to exercise caution while on the roads and leave plenty of space between cars as they drive.

Surface analysis early this morning shows a weak stationary boundary draped over central Florida and a weak meso low off the coast of the Florida peninsula. This boundary is forecast to weaken as the day progresses, fizzling out sometime overnight as surface high begins to build in along the Eastern Seaboard. This synoptic evolution will help maintain light northerly to northeasterly winds today, becoming more northeasterly to easterly on Saturday as surface high builds in. Model guidance is not too enthused about shower potential today, although low-level moisture has been gradually trending upward overnight; a few stray showers could materialize, but chances remain very low.

Temperatures through the period will continue to gradually warm up, with highs each afternoon in the high 70s and lower 80s, while overnight lows could dip into the mid 50s across the interior and lower 60s along the East Coast.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

A much deeper synoptic scale trough will develop and strengthen in the lee of the Rockies,sweeping into the Eastern Seaboard sometime Sunday-Monday. This complex will drag another front across the Florida peninsula with it. This will provide more of a large scale forcing mechanism to promote rainfall across much of the region. Some of the model guidance remains in disagreement regarding the timing of this solution, with the ENS (ensemble ECMWF) presenting a more progressive approach, while the GEFS (ensemble GFS) maintains a slower evolution. The forecast reflects a middle ground of both, leaning ever so slightly more into the ENS solution, with the front reaching our area late Sunday into Monday and light to moderate rainfall persisting through the day. It's worth noting that the PoPs have gradually trended upward with each forecast cycle over the last couple of nights, which is helping increase our confidence regarding this scenario.

Behind the front, surface high will build over the Eastern Seaboard and the Florida peninsula, maintaining benign conditions through the rest of the week.

Daily high temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s to low 80s across the region each day. Similarly, overnight lows each night will stabilize to being in the 50s across SW Florida and low 60s for the east coast metro.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Sub-VFR conditions will be possible at KAPF and some of the East Coast terminals early this morning as patchy fog develops and overspreads the region. Included some TEMPOs to reflect this possibility, but could potentially need short-fuse updates as conditions evolve. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of north- northeast later this morning.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Generally light to moderate winds will prevail today, becoming more northeasterly to easterly on Saturday. Seas will remain benign, ranging from 2-4 ft across the local Atlantic waters, and 2 ft or less across the Gulf.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 64 77 67 / 0 0 10 10 West Kendall 81 59 79 63 / 0 0 10 10 Opa-Locka 80 62 78 66 / 0 0 10 10 Homestead 80 61 78 66 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 77 64 76 67 / 0 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 78 64 76 67 / 0 0 20 10 Pembroke Pines 80 62 79 66 / 0 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 78 63 76 66 / 0 10 20 10 Boca Raton 79 63 77 66 / 0 10 20 10 Naples 76 58 79 62 / 0 0 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.