textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 350 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- A high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic Coast beaches through this evening. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon and evening. The highest chances will remain around the Gulf coast.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 350 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A pattern transition is ahead for South Florida to start the week as the waning influence of high pressure gives way to an approaching frontal boundary. Aloft, low pressure over eastern Canada will drive an associated trough south and east which will open the door for the frontal boundary to shift southward some where between Central and South Florida by mid-week. The pooling of tropical moisture south of the front will allow the shower and thunderstorm chances to increase across a good portion of the state over the next several days. The threat of flooding due to excessive rainfall is non-zero and will need to be monitored. Maximum temperatures on Monday will again reach the lower 90s with heat index values reaching around 100 in many areas.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 350 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The warm temperatures will begin to moderate as the additional cloud cover with the approaching boundary allow a cooling trend of a few degrees per day to emerge for Tuesday and then Wednesday. Regardless if an area of low pressure does indeed develop along the boundary early in the week somewhere around north or north central Florida, this week does appear to feature unsettled weather for the South Florida forecast. A change in this forecast cycle from previous guidance is the insistence of reinforcing shortwave troughs at the mid levels to keep the front stalled a bit further south than previously forecast. Obviously this is one model cycle but that is something that will also need to be monitored as the repetitive bouts of rainfall that could emerge could be problematic for any areas that become saturated.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

East-south easterly flow is still holding for our east coast terminals this afternoon, with winds shifting more easterly in the southernmost terminals. A gulf breeze has picked up at KAPF and will hold through 00z. Along the gulf breeze front, SHRA/TSRA is still a medium possibility at KAPF and a TEMPO group will remain. Isolated SHRA at KDJT is a low possibility through 00z. Winds will become L/V after sunset and will hold until tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 350 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The prevaling moderate east-southeasterly breeze this afternoon is starting to weaken as we head into the evening, and this trend will continue through Monday. On the gulf side, scattered showers and thunderstorms along the gulf breeze front have a possibility of pushing back over the gulf tonight. For the rest of the forecast period, winds are expected to gradually shift more southwesterly but remain gentle to moderate. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day across most of the local waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 89 77 88 / 0 20 20 70 West Kendall 77 89 76 88 / 0 20 20 70 Opa-Locka 78 90 76 89 / 10 20 20 70 Homestead 78 89 77 88 / 0 10 20 60 Fort Lauderdale 78 88 76 88 / 10 20 20 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 89 77 88 / 10 30 30 80 Pembroke Pines 78 89 76 88 / 10 20 20 80 West Palm Beach 77 89 76 88 / 10 30 40 80 Boca Raton 78 88 76 88 / 10 30 30 80 Naples 75 88 75 86 / 30 10 20 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.