textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1247 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Low relative humidities will continue this afternoon across the western half of South Florida which could result in enhanced fire behavior. Low humidity values will return during the afternoon hours of Sunday and Monday.

- A Gale Watch is now in effect for South Florida beginning on Saturday afternoon and evening. Sustained winds of 30-40 knots with higher gusts is possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters through Sunday afternoon. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest forecast over the next several days. - A potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week as another strong cold front passes through the area. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far South as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

After a somewhat dreary and cloudy Wednesday, Thursday and Friday should bring more sunshine across all of South Florida. While early morning temperatures are expected to be quite cold again, the afternoon hours should be quite pleasant with most of South Florida warming up into the 70s. Overnight temperatures tonight into Friday will remain warmer than the previous few days as well. Expect upper 50s to low 60s along the east coast with mid 40s to lower 50s for interior and Southwest Florida.

On Friday, a weak area of low pressure will cross the Florida peninsula which could bring a few more clouds and scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Winds will begin to shift from the northeast to the northwest through the day as the next hotly anticipated cold front approaches from the north. Aside from a few showers during the afternoon, Friday should be fairly pleasant as well with highs in the lower 70s. Lows overnight into Saturday will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

The aforementioned area of low pressure enters the western Atlantic on Saturday and will begin to rapidly deepen as it pushes towards the northeast. This system will send a strong cold front across South Florida on Saturday afternoon which will act to reinforce the cooler air mass across the area. The coolest and driest air mass of the season thus far arrives early Sunday morning with potentially widespread freezing or near freezing low temperatures across South Florida. Northwest flow prevails behind the strong front, which will advect a dry arctic continental air mass down the Florida peninsula all day on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday morning could be even colder as cold air advection is maximized, and maritime modification to the air mass is minimized, or nearly non-existent. Low temperatures could be so cold early Sunday and early Monday that Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed around Lake Okeechobee with potential Freeze Warnings extending much further south than the earlier cold snaps this season. Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday and Monday may not reach much higher than the mid 50s. Trends have been closely monitored and will continue to be monitored through the week although confidence is slowly increasing that this could be the coldest Attic snap across South Florida since December 2010. Temperatures begin to rebound on Tuesday morning but will still dip into the lower 30s to lower 40s across all of South Florida although Tuesday afternoon we may finally be able to reach the 60s during the afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures (finally) are able to climb back into the 70s.

Visit our website for graphical temperature forecasts (hover over 'Forecast' and then click 'Cold Weather' OR 'Other Probabilistic Forecast Graphics'). Describing temperatures across every part of the forecast area through text is a bit clunky and images make the message much clearer.

While the anomalous temperature forecast continues to steal the show, surface winds behind this cold front will be quite significant as well. Winds will increase out of the northwest on Saturday afternoon between 15-25 mph over land with potential gusts to around 40 mph through Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is not out of the question for this time period, and this potential will continue to be monitored. Regardless, it would be wise to secure any light outdoor objects that may become projectiles prior to this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Light northeasterly surface winds will prevail across the region this afternoon with winds becoming light after sunset. The combination of a surface and upper level disturbance will result in increasing rain chances across the region on Friday morning. Added in VCSH at all east coast terminals to account for the increasing rain chances. Lower cigs will be possible during this time period as SCT SHRA develops across the region.

MARINE

Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Conditions across local waters continue to improve today and Friday before they will once again rapidly deteriorate on Saturday. NNE flow between 15-20 kts will prevail today, weakening to 10-15 kts on Friday. Friday night into early Saturday, winds will veer to a more westerly direction across all local waters increasing to 30-40 kts by late Saturday night. Gusts during this time period could reach 40-50 kts. Gale watches/warnings will be explored over the coming forecast cycles. Wave heights will peak with the winds late Saturday night into early sunday warning with heights of 10-12 feet across both Gulf and Atlantic waters. Winds and waves will slowly subside through the afternoon and evening on Sunday.

BEACHES

Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches through the end of the week. Rip current probabilities are poised to increase behind a cold front passage late this weekend into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 61 70 56 69 / 10 40 20 30 West Kendall 55 72 52 70 / 10 40 20 30 Opa-Locka 58 72 55 70 / 10 40 20 30 Homestead 60 72 55 71 / 20 40 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 61 70 56 68 / 10 40 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 60 70 55 67 / 10 40 20 30 Pembroke Pines 58 72 55 70 / 10 40 20 30 West Palm Beach 58 70 54 67 / 10 20 20 30 Boca Raton 59 71 55 69 / 10 30 20 30 Naples 53 70 56 66 / 0 10 30 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for AMZ610.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for AMZ630.

Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for GMZ656-657-676.