textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 640 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 - Scattered showers and breezy easterly winds expected today. - High Risk of Rip Currents continue for all Atlantic beaches.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 334 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Not much has changed in guidance regarding the overall synoptic scenario for the next several days. High pressure over the west Atlantic will continue to extend into northern Florida today, while a decaying stationary boundary lingers around the central Gulf waters and Cuba. Pressure gradients continue to relax, with the periods of gusty E winds now expected mainly during the afternoon hours along the Atlantic coast.

The 00Z MFL sounding shows that the mid level air is now moderating with moisture intruding into the 3-6km layer. PWATs have increased to just above 1 inch, and may increase a bit more today as a mid lvl shortwave moves across the area. NBM is responding with an increase in POPs into the 30-35% range for the next couple of days, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. QPF estimated values remain around half an inch.

Today's afternoon temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest over the west coast. Even warmer on Friday with low- mid 80s east coast and interior areas, and into the upper 80s for Gulf coast areas.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 334 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Ensembles and global solutions show an upper lvl shortwave moving across the area to start the long term, while a weak frontal boundary moves across the SE CONUS during the weekend. Expect some gradual increase in mid lvl moisture and instability, with POPs now increasing into the 25-35% range through Sunday. Meanwhile, ridging over the west Atlantic will remain dominant across SoFlo, with winds relaxing over SoFlo during the weekend. Periods of light or even calm winds are possible, especially on Sunday.

The presence of the front over the northern portions of the peninsula will help in shifting winds across SoFlo to a more southerly flow, which combined with daytime heating will favor scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over interior and northern portions of the CWA.

For next week, conditions should dry again rather quickly during the first half of the work week as high pressure and drier air establish in the wake of the front.

A warming trend will begin during the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s across much of SoFlo. Then by Tuesday, afternoon highs should be hitting the upper 80s to low 90s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Light easterly winds overnight around 10 kts becoming 10-15 kts after 16Z Friday. An afternoon westerly Gulf breeze is expected at APF. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mid afternoon through early evening.

MARINE

Issued at 334 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Boating conditions will remain cautionary today due to gusty periods this afternoon at the Atlantic waters, then winds gradually subside through the weekend. Generally easterly winds in the 10-15kt range with higher gusts are expected again this afternoon, but decreasing to around 10kt in the evening hours.

BEACHES

Issued at 409 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

With more periods of gusty winds this afternoon, the ongoing rip current risk threat continues for all Atlantic beaches. A high risk will remain in place through Friday morning for all east coast beaches, then until Friday evening over Palm Beach county.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 70 81 70 84 / 10 20 10 30 West Kendall 65 83 65 86 / 10 20 10 30 Opa-Locka 69 83 69 86 / 10 20 10 30 Homestead 69 81 69 84 / 20 30 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 70 80 70 82 / 10 20 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 70 80 70 82 / 10 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 70 84 70 86 / 10 20 10 30 West Palm Beach 67 80 68 83 / 10 20 10 20 Boca Raton 70 80 70 82 / 10 20 10 20 Naples 66 83 68 85 / 30 10 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.