textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- Showers and storms remain possible through Tuesday as a frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of South Florida.

- Hazardous marine conditions today and at least another day of dangerous rip currents are forecast along and offshore of the Palm Beach coast.

- Above average temperatures return to the region mid to late this week. Probabilities of heat-related impacts across urban areas during this time frame continue to increase.

UPDATE

Issued at 420 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

No major forecast changes in this cycle though the threat of rip currents will persist into at least Tuesday. Went ahead with an extension of the High Risk of Rip Currents for the Palm Beaches through Tuesday. Will monitor trends in the Atlantic waters but plan to allow the SCA to expire at 00z and SCEC will take its place for the overnight. Have a wonderful afternoon!

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Not much has changed regarding the overall synoptic scenario for the short term. A stationary sfc boundary lingers over the southern tip of the Florida peninsula, with an associated weakening meso-low between the Bahamas and the SE Florida coast. Trailing moisture behind the front remains draped across SoFlo, with active convection affecting the immediate east coastline from Jupiter through Key Biscayne. Meanwhile, a long ridge axis extends from the mid-Atlantic coast and into the northern half of Florida, with a sharp contrast in moisture between the northern and southern half of the state.

As in the past couple of days, the area of enhanced moisture over the CWA will keep widespread cloud cover in place through the rest of the afternoon hours. But if some breaks occur that allows for sunshine/daytime heating to further warm up the sfc, a few strong cells could develop and bring localized heavy rain, and potential for lighting strikes and gusty winds. In general, the poor instability profile should limit deep convection today, but can't rule out having an isolated strong storm or two before the day is done.

Pressure gradients between the ridge to the north and the lingering boundary to the south will remain tight enough for some afternoon breezy/gusty periods through the rest of this afternoon, especially along the Atlantic coastline. Conditions subside tonight and into Tuesday as the aforementioned ridge slides further south and closer to the area. Meanwhile, a mid-lvl ridge also intrudes aloft from the Gulf region. This will result in a drier day on Tuesday max PoPs dropping to the low teens, along with winds becoming light over much of interior SoFlo.

Temperatures tonight will cool down into the mid-upper 60s over interior and western areas, while the Atlantic metro areas will likely be in the low 70s. For Tuesday, afternoon highs will range from the low-mid 80s for east coast locations, while interior and western areas should hit the upper 80s to low 90s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

A pattern change aloft will set the stage for above average temperatures across the region beginning during the middle portion of the work week. The culprit? The arrival of a anomalously strong 500mb mid-level ridge that will gradually slide eastward across the Gulf beginning late on Tuesday into early Wednesday. 500mb temperatures could approach the daily maximum (warmest) values during this stretch with values potentially above -4C to -5C at 500mb. LREF GEFS Climatology has 500mb temperatures aloft of South Florida in the 97-99th percentile and at times near the daily max value late Tuesday night into Friday morning. A ridge of this strength aloft will also result in strong subsidence at the surface, which will hinder and suppress rain chances outside of low- capped cumulus afternoon cloud cover and a non-zero chance of a few isolated sprinkles along afternoon boundary collisions where ascent is maximized. 500mb flow will remain anticyclonic in nature around this feature as the ridge axis slowly propagates just to the south of our region late in the work week. At the same time, an envelope of drier precipitable water values will also push into the region during this time frame which will mix more dry air down the surface during the afternoon hours reinforcing the dry period.

Kinematics out of the way, let's hone more in on forecast details. The lack of convective activity and a shallow layer of cumulus clouds will do little to stifle high temperatures during this period. Beginning on Wednesday and persisting through at least Friday, perhaps even into the upcoming weekend, high temperatures across the region are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s with the exception of ocean cooled coastal areas which will max out in the mid to upper 80s. While the mixing down of drier air to the surface will keep apparent temperature and ambient temperature differences lower in separation compared to our standard summer heat, apparent temperatures values in the upper 90s to low 100s are still possible. NWS's Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk depicts a medium (50%) to high (70%) probability of Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4) beginning on Thursday across the east coast metro and persisting through at least Saturday, potentially expanding into the Naples metro later in the week as well. While these probabilistic values may fluctuate as we remain several days out in time, Major HeatRisk can be impactful to anyone without adequate cooling/hydration as well as health system and industries. Be sure to keep up with the latest forecast updates over the next several days.

A long wave trough is forecast to propagate across the Great Lakes region at the end of the work week. A developing surface low ahead of the trough across the northeastern United States will provide enough synoptic influence to drag an attendant frontal boundary southward across the southeastern United States on Thursday and across the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Model solutions have come into better agreement in depicting the frontal boundary stalling out and becoming frontolytic in nature just to the north of our region Friday into the upcoming weekend as southwesterly 500mb flow continues aloft. It appears the stunted southward movement of the boundary may be caused by the fact that the ensemble and deterministic guidance has trended a little less progressive with the mid-level ridging over the past 24 hours now depicting a gradual displacement of the ridge axis southward next weekend.

While the boundary may not make it to South Florida, a plume of the deeper atmospheric moisture envelope associated with the boundary could arrive across South Florida Friday into the upcoming weekend. With light background winds across the region, south of the stalled boundary across Central/Northern Florida during this period, diurnal sea-breeze circulations could kick in each afternoon focusing shower and thunderstorm chances along the inland propagating boundaries and outflow collisions. Latest forecast has daily PM rain chances in the 20-40% range during this time frame. Forecast high temperatures for next weekend currently reside in mid to upper 80s across coastal locales with widespread 90s inland.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR should prevail tonight with cigs around 4-5k lingering through Tuesday morning. NE light to moderate flow overnight, then generally ESE around 10kt after 15Z, except for a westerly afternoon Gulf breeze at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Northeasterly winds will enhance across the region at daybreak, becoming breezy to gusty across all local waters as a pressure gradient briefly enhances. 00z HREF guidance depicts a high (70-90%) probability of reaching 20 knot sustained wind thresholds across the northern Atlantic waters today which also lines up well with ECMWF guidance. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the northern Atlantic waters from 8am this morning to 5pm this afternoon. Wave heights will reach the 4-6 feet range in the Atlantic waters today before lessening overnight into Tuesday. Wave heights will remain in the 1-2 feet range across the local Gulf waters before decreasing further in height on Tuesday as winds across the region veer easterly and lessen in strength.

BEACHES

Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Gusty onshore winds and the return of northeasterly swell will result in a high risk of rip currents at Palm Beach beaches through at least this evening with a moderate risk for Broward and Miami- Dade beaches as well today. An elevated risk of rip currents may linger at Palm Beach beaches on Tuesday before lessening northeasterly swell and surface winds reduce the threat of rip currents during the middle to late portion of the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 86 73 88 / 40 20 10 0 West Kendall 69 88 68 90 / 40 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 72 87 73 90 / 40 20 10 0 Homestead 72 87 72 89 / 40 20 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 73 84 73 86 / 40 20 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 73 84 73 87 / 40 20 10 0 Pembroke Pines 73 88 74 91 / 40 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 72 83 73 87 / 40 20 10 0 Boca Raton 73 84 73 87 / 40 20 10 0 Naples 70 87 71 88 / 20 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.