textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 654 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM this evening with possible heat index values of 106-110F, mainly for the east coast metro areas. Max temps today will hit the low-mid 90s. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow, favoring the Lake region.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Regional morning soundings have shown plenty of residual dry air in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere as there is still some lingering Saharan dust from yesterday's event. Model data and satellite imagery reveal a shortwave trough oriented from SW to NE just offshore of the SE CONUS, which has evidently advected higher amounts of moisture toward our region. Higher PWAT values of near 2.0" are already starting to advect into South Florida according to recent ACARs data from KFLL and KMIA. However, forecast soundings suggest that the dry layer should remain fairly prominent through most of our atmospheric column, even with the intrusion of this higher moisture content from the South. A west-southwesterly wind will continue to prevail today as a weak area of high pressure centered over the central Gulf will still be dictating our surface flow. Showers have already been ongoing across the Lake Okeechobee region since this morning along a tight moisture gradient between the lingering SAL and higher PWATs situated over Central Florida, near the leading edge of a quasi-stationary boundary to the north. A weaker surface flow today should allow the Atlantic sea breeze to push a little further inland and provide that extra forcing we had been lacking over the past few days. This should lead to the development of additional showers and a few thunderstorms across our eastern metros later this afternoon and into the evening hours upon the immediate formation of the breeze. Given the dry ambient air in place, it is plausible for a robust core or two that forms along this boundary to produce gusty winds in addition to periods of heavy rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning. With this delayed convective initiation across our eastern metro/coastal areas, a heat advisory will be in effect through the early evening with hazardous heat indices expected to climb to the 105-110 F degree range. Local relief should be anticipated as the afternoon progresses as both thunderstorm activity and cloud cover pick up.

We should see a modest uptick in atmospheric moisture content across South Florida tomorrow along the tail of a departing shortwave trough, with an overall similar superficial setup to today. Showers activity across the Gulf coast in the morning should give way to a few boundary interactions across interior and Southeast Florida during the afternoon, which should lead to scattered and numerous storm activity. Our surface winds will remain out of the southwest due to aforementioned high pressure in the Gulf, with an evolving threat of isolated urban flooding along the east coast as storm cells are poised to stay pinned along the diurnal sea breeze. As a disclaimer, WPC will have not only our eastern metros under a marginal risk of flash flooding, but our entire CWA due to the overall moistening of our atmospheric profile and potential for heavier saturation aloft. Today's lower-level dry air is expected to carry over into tomorrow's forecast, allowing some collapsing cores to possibly produce strong wind gusts. Frequent lightning and torrential downpours will be the coincident hazards. Our eastern coastal/metro areas should again be at or near heat advisory criteria with apparent temperatures forecast to rise to as high as 110 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Long range model solutions depict a prevailing wetter pattern as moisture and instability continue to surge during the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Winds on Sunday and Monday will continue to transition from southwesterly to southerly winds, then becoming easterly by Tuesday as the W Atl ridge expands closer to SoFlo. This will shift the best chances of rain from eastern/interior areas during the weekend to western areas by mid week.

Latest NBM has significantly surged in moisture advection and content across SoFlo, lingering through the rest of the work week. Model PWAts well above 2" and max POPs upwards of 90% will keep a very active weather pattern, with wettest days being Sunday and Monday attm. The added instability and upper-lvl support from passing short-wave impulses along the base of the trough aloft will increase the potential for strong storms on both days, especially around the Lake region.

By Tuesday, easterly flow re-establishes and a more typical summer time pater will return with sea breezes driving convection towards interior and west coast areas each afternoon. But in general, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through basically the whole long term period. Main hazards will be lightning strikes, damaging gusty winds, large hail, and localized flooding.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Storm activity should diminish after sunset. VFR conditions should prevail overnight, with winds becoming light and variable. Winds will once again pick up out of the southwest during the morning. Storms will once again develop during the afternoon along the Atlantic sea breeze, so have included VCTS for all eastern sites.

MARINE

Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Moderate west-southwest winds continue through the weekend, except for afternoon periods of southerly winds at the Atlantic waters this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 93 79 92 / 30 60 30 60 West Kendall 75 93 75 92 / 20 50 30 50 Opa-Locka 79 95 79 93 / 30 60 20 60 Homestead 77 93 78 92 / 10 40 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 92 79 91 / 40 60 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 79 92 79 91 / 40 60 30 60 Pembroke Pines 79 94 80 92 / 40 60 20 60 West Palm Beach 77 93 77 92 / 40 70 30 70 Boca Raton 78 92 78 91 / 40 60 30 70 Naples 79 91 78 91 / 10 30 30 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.