textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 747 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

- High risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches through tonight.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly over the interior South Florida and southwest Florida.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Current mid-level water vapor imagery along with the 00z MFL sounding shows a very dry layer of air in the 700 to 500 mb region of the atmosphere. However, this mid-level dry air is expected to erode a little bit on Saturday as southeasterly flow looks to introduce some greater tropical moisture into the region. Model soundings indicate that PWATs should climb into the the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, which will in turn increase MidRH values to greater than 75%. Aloft, ridging will begin to build over the western Atlantic, and surface high pressure will strengthen off the coast of the Carolinas. As result, mid level subsidence is expected once again on Saturday afternoon, which may suppress stronger and more widespread convection. However, the increased moisture should lead to greater coverage than the last couple of days, with a few stronger storms along mesoscale convergence zones. With weak 500 mb flow, there will be very little forcing synoptically for storms, so most precipitation will be sea-breeze induced. A strengthening pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will begin to increase easterly wind flow through the weekend. With a more predominant easterly regime, storms will focus over interior South Florida and along the Gulf breeze in southwest Florida. HREF ensemble CAMs indicate activity will first focus over the Everglades and then shift north to northwestward over the course of the afternoon. Main concerns will be frequent lightning from stronger storms, sub-severe wind gusts, and locally heavy downpours.

Easterly winds look to continue strengthening heading into Sunday as the surface high along the eastern seaboard strengthens into the 1022 to 1026 mb range. Wind speeds will get up to 10 to 15 mph with gusts as strong as 25 mph. As ridging builds over western Atlantic, another centroid of high pressure will develop over the Bay of Campeche. Therefore, Florida will find itself in a corridor of deeper moisture that will continue to advect north into Florida from the Caribbean. PWATs look to climb to near 2 inches, which is within the 90th percentile for this time of year. Surface troughing over the Florida Straits may create a weak boundary or even induce a weak disturbance over Cuba. As a result, increased chances of precipitation for the morning hours along the Gulfstream and the Florida Straits, with showers moving from east to west over the region. During the afternoon, shower and storm activity will likely focus along the interior and southwest Florida, along the Gulf breeze where PoPs are in the 70% to 80% range. With deeper moisture and slightly better forcing available, a few more stronger thunderstorms may be more likely on Sunday compared to Saturday.

It will continue to feel quite hot through the weekend, with heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. Probabilistic HeatRisk guidance shows widespread Moderate risk with a lower 20% chance of Major HeatRisk for the east coast metros. Sensitive individuals will be most at risk without proper cooling or hydration.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Confidence is increasing for a mid-level non-tropical disturbance of low pressure to develop over the western Atlantic near the Bahamas. The center of the circulation will continue to slide west towards Florida through Tuesday, then looking to meander around the Bahamas through the middle of the week. The exact positioning of this circulation is still uncertain, and it may be a determining factor for how much moisture and precipitation it brings to the region. However, with high pressure ridging still building over the southern Gulf, Florida will continue to find itself in a corridor of deeper moisture, keeping PWATs in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through the middle of the week. The increased forcing and moisture may also lead to higher chances of morning and overnight convection that starts at the Gulfstream and moves westward across the peninsula. During the day, the strongest storms will most likely focus along the Gulf breeze in interior and southwest Florida due to the stronger easterly flow.

One factor that makes things a little bit more interesting for Monday is that guidance is hinting at 500 mb temperatures dropping to near -10 C, below the 25th percentile for this time of year. If mid-level lapse rates get steep enough, there could be an isolated threat of hail and strong to severe wind gusts. The main forcing will come from the sea breeze convergence, but diurnal heating should create for a quite unstable environment, with steep low level laps rates and larger MUCAPE values near 3000 J/kg. Temperatures aloft will warm up over the middle of the week, which will diminish the threat of severe storms. But, typical afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours looks to remain the norm through the end of the week.

Heat indices each day will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s, once again contributing to Moderate to Major HeatRisk. The upper level ridge from the Gulf will slide eastward over Florida towards the end of the week, which will increase pressure heights and warm the environment. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool indicates increased chances of of 30% to 40% for observing Major (level 3 of 4) heat related impacts next Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 747 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period. Light and variable winds early this morning will increase out of the east-southeast by noon, and should persist overnight and into tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Easterly breezes will strengthen through the weekend along the Atlantic, with sustained wind speeds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts likely. A weaker westerly breeze will be likely along the Gulf each afternoon. These breezier conditions look to create some slightly choppier conditions, but waters are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Isolated weak showers are possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning, while there is a low chance of stronger storms impacting the Gulf waters during the afternoon. Chances of precipitation are expected to increase across the region heading into next week. Atlantic seas will be 2-4 feet through the weekend, while the Gulf will remain 2 feet or less.

BEACHES

Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Slightly stronger northerly swell and breezier conditions will lead to continued high risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches. Guidance is hinting at moderate risk for all other Atlantic beaches, with increased chances of high risk for the beginning to middle part of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 78 87 78 / 30 30 40 30 West Kendall 90 75 89 75 / 30 30 40 30 Opa-Locka 89 77 88 78 / 30 30 40 30 Homestead 88 77 88 78 / 30 40 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 86 78 86 79 / 20 30 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 86 77 85 78 / 20 30 40 40 Pembroke Pines 91 78 90 79 / 20 30 40 30 West Palm Beach 86 77 86 78 / 20 20 40 40 Boca Raton 86 78 86 79 / 20 30 40 40 Naples 91 75 92 75 / 10 20 80 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.