textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop again today with the highest chances remaining over the interior and Southwest Florida. - Peak heat index values will generally range between 100 and 109 across most areas this afternoon resulting in a widespread moderate HeatRisk across the metro areas.

- Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the week will allow a High Risk of Rip Currents to develop along the Atlantic beaches that will persist into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Deep-layered high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to provide for an easterly surface wind flow over South Florida through the rest of the work week. An inverted trough rounding the Atlantic high pressure will move across the Bahamas today and tonight before reaching Southeast Florida on Friday. The additional moisture and instability brought to the region by this feature will align with the maximum of diurnal heating to enhance sea breeze convection on Friday, particularly over Southwest Florida.

Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Thursday and Friday. Heat index values will reach the lower to mid 100s with some portions of the area exceeding 105 (mainly in SWFL). Sensitive individuals without proper cooling and hydration will be at risk of heat illness under these conditions.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The aforementioned inverted trough is expected to lift northward along the Florida Peninsula late Friday into Saturday. Deep tropical moisture (PWATs generally exceeding 2 inches) will linger across South Florida through much of Saturday, supporting enhanced convective coverage focused across the interior and southwest regions. As the disturbance lifts north of the area, Atlantic surface high pressure will gradually reestablish itself across the Florida Peninsula. This will maintain a moderate easterly to southeasterly flow through early next week before the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat by the middle of the week, resulting in a lighter broad easterly flow.

Model and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement depicting a gradual drying trend beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next week, with PWAT values generally decreasing into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. These moisture levels are closer to seasonal norms and sufficient to support typical summertime convection. Accordingly, scattered afternoon and evening showers are expected each day through the extended period, with the greatest coverage generally favoring the interior and southwest Florida under the prevailing easterly flow. A plume of Saharan dust may approach South Florida by the middle of next week, which could suppress overall convective coverage and intensity, but confidence on its impacts remains low at this time.

The return of Atlantic ridging and overall reduction in cloud cover will support a slow warming trend through the extended forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 90s across much of South Florida, while peak heat indices may reach 105 to 110 F each afternoon. Moderate HeatRisk will persist, especially across the east coast metro and southwest Florida. This warming trend will continue to be monitored closely over the coming days for the potential of increasing heat-related impacts across the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Easterly wind flow will persist becoming more gusty later in the morning into the afternoon hours. Intermittent passing showers through most of the period with the potential for thunderstorms focused inland and west late morning through the early evening. Short-fused AMDs may be needed for sub-VFR impacts later today.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Easterly wind becoming moderate across the local waters through late week. Occasional fresh breezes are possible over the Atlantic waters during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. A disturbance moving across the area late Thursday through Friday could bring some additional shower and thunderstorm activity outside of the normal diurnal activity. Seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually increase and could range between 3 to 4 feet heading into Thursday and Friday.

BEACHES

Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Easterly winds will gradually increase through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. As a result, there is a High Risk of Rip Currents starting this morning and continuing through at least Saturday morning along the Atlantic beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 79 91 80 / 50 40 60 40 West Kendall 90 78 91 77 / 60 30 60 30 Opa-Locka 91 80 92 80 / 50 40 60 40 Homestead 90 78 91 80 / 60 40 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 89 80 / 60 50 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 80 90 81 / 60 50 60 40 Pembroke Pines 89 80 90 81 / 60 40 60 40 West Palm Beach 90 79 90 79 / 60 50 60 30 Boca Raton 88 79 88 80 / 60 50 60 40 Naples 92 76 92 77 / 80 20 80 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.