textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 727 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected across Southwest Florida this afternoon and evening as well as tomorrow.

- An isolated severe storm is possible today, but would be a highly conditional case.

- Heat indices expected in the low to mid 100s each day through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A bit of a "contradicting" pattern is setting up for today and Thursday as depending on the height level analyzed, the local pattern varies quite drastically. At the surface and up through about the 850mb height level, high pressure remains intact across the western Atlantic and portions of the Southeast states including Florida. Higher up in the atmosphere at at the 500mb and at the 250mb jet stream level, a positively tilted upper level trough is expected to strengthen and situate itself mainly over the eastern Gulf and on the periphery of the Florida Gulf Coast. This trough will provide forcing for ascent via several vorticity maxima streaming across the region and will also overlap with the Gulf breeze circulation. Since high pressure still exists at the surface, the prevailing easterly flow that results in a pinned Gulf breeze plus the positive vorticity advection is likely to lead to some widespread showers and thunderstorms across Southwest Florida. Some of this activity may spread into the interior portions where the Atlantic sea breeze advances towards, which will include Alligator Alley. While viewed as highly unlikely given a lack of premier support and a freezing level above 15kft, a stronger core or two cannot be ruled out especially today as multiple forcing mechanisms co-exist and have potential to produce a more robust updraft or two. Therefore, perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm will be possible today but the overwhelming majority of storms today and tomorrow will be sub-severe, which can contain some heavy downpours and strong wind gusts.

High temperatures are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region with maximum heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s in the afternoon hours, which will remain below advisory levels. However, moderate HeatRisk is still forecast, meaning that anyone who is sensitive to heat or that lack proper cooling/hydration could be at risk for heat exhaustion even without advisory level heat indices being achieved.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The high pressure circulation that has been in control of the local the weather pattern for a while will break up and weaken for the end of this week and into the weekend, which is expected to result in a highly weak flow pattern. As a result of this, as deep moisture continues to advect into the area daily (PWATs of at least 1.7- 2.0"), rain chances will become more uniform across the entire region through the weekend (50-60% closer to the coasts and 70-80% for interior areas). Highest chances will be for the interior and around the Lake O area since the weak flow pattern will allow for both the Gulf breeze and Atlantic sea breeze to move inland where they may eventually collide with each other. Even if they don't collide, they will be able to advance into those inland locations before stalling out.

As we move into early next week, long range guidance has been coming into better agreement regarding the development of an upper level low near Cuba that would be expected to advect northwards in the vicinity of South Florida before breaking apart. Other then being another source of lift, ensembles do not show that this area of low pressure could strengthen to a point where it produces a surface gradient, but it would shift the low level flow direction. The flow direction mainly matters because it determines which areas will see the most widespread rainfall. Right now the expectation is that low level flow (near the 925-850mb layer) will shift to a southwesterly direction and place the highest rain chances across the northeastern portion of the region (Palm Beach and Broward counties). The exact development of this upper level low and it's propagation is still highly uncertain, so we will continue to monitor this in the coming days.

High temperatures most days across the region will reach the low 90s with overnight lows ranging from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s near the coastlines.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the east coast terminals through the forecast period. Winds will increase out of the east after 16z and will range between 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out near the east coast terminals through the morning hours. At KAPF, light winds this morning will become SW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers and storms could bring periods of MVFR or IFR to KAPF after 18z.

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A gentle easterly wind flow will be maintained across the local waters today and into the late week period. However, winds will become westerly to west-southwest in the afternoon for the nearshore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers and storms are expected over the Gulf waters each day with drier conditions ongoing for the Atlantic. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less for all local waters over the next few days, although brief periods of increased winds and seas are possible with any thunderstorm activity.

BEACHES

Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

There is a moderate risk for rip currents across portions of the Atlantic beaches over the next few days, primarily for the Palm beaches and Broward beaches. This risk may decrease by the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 88 77 89 77 / 20 10 30 10 West Kendall 89 75 90 74 / 30 10 40 10 Opa-Locka 89 77 91 77 / 20 10 30 10 Homestead 88 78 89 77 / 30 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 87 78 88 77 / 10 0 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 86 77 88 77 / 20 0 20 10 Pembroke Pines 90 78 92 78 / 20 10 30 10 West Palm Beach 88 77 89 77 / 30 10 20 10 Boca Raton 87 78 88 78 / 20 10 20 10 Naples 90 75 90 77 / 60 50 40 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.