textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 612 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Drier conditions will push across most of South Florida through the rest of the weekend and into early this week.

- Minor coastal flooding will continue around periods of high tide through the rest of the weekend and into Monday morning.

- Chances of showers will increase during the second half of the week as a stronger cold front approaches and moves through the region. Behind the front, the coolest airmass of the season so far could push over the region by next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

While mid level zonal flow will continue across the region today, weak mid level ridging will gradually start to move over the area from the Gulf as Monday progresses. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will eventually stall out just to the south of the region today before gradually washing out tonight into Monday. At the same time, high pressure centered to the northwest will gradually build into the region behind the front today through Monday. With plenty of subsidence occurring behind the frontal boundary throughout the atmospheric column, this will allow for PWATs to lower as they will generally range between 1.1 and 1.3 inches across most areas today into Monday. The only exception to this will be over the extreme southern area of the peninsula which will be closer to the front where PWAT values will be slightly higher. The drier air mass will help to keep mostly dry conditions in place through the rest of the weekend and into Monday, with the only exception being a very low chance of a passing shower or two over the extreme southern areas closer to the front. Any shower that would develop during this time frame would be low topped and short lived. High temperatures today and Monday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s, however, some locations south of Alligator Alley could rise into the upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 446 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Dry conditions through Monday will slowly begin to degrade as we move into the mid-week period. A mid-level ridge and surface high pressure over the Southeast begins to shift the low level moisture advection over Southern Florida. Tuesday, the associated surface high-pressure system slides southeast into the Atlantic waters and begins to shift surface winds to a southerly direction which will begin to advect moisture from the south. This weak south- southwesterly surface flow trailing the eastward moving high pressure system is forecast to scoop up only a modest level of tropical moisture from the Gulf and Caribbean Sea as precipitable water values will remain near normal (1.45 inches) for this time of year by Tuesday afternoon. The mid-level ridging will help to stifle convection Tuesday with little in the way of mid to upper- level forcing, residual dry air aloft, and meager instability. This will result in precipitation primarily being restricted to a few showers developing along maximized ascent on the diurnally driven sea/gulf breezes across the southern end of South Florida where low level boundary layer moisture levels remains the highest.

Continued moisture advection from the south-southwest on Wednesday will raise precipitable water values further with ensemble guidance placing the 50th percentile at 1.67 inches, which would be slightly above average for this time of year. 500mb temperatures on Wednesday fall below -9C, which will act to steepen lapse rates, aiding in the development of thunderstorm activity as instability increases. A jet streak moving off the Texas gulf coast will add some extra forcing into the mix by late Wednesday so we could see some brief thunderstorm activity late in the day. The surface winds coming from the southwest will be light allowing for a sea breeze to push in from the Atlantic and pin the shower and thunderstorm activity along the eastern metros. Overall, rain chances Wednesday will elevate compared to Tuesday, but guidance is hinting at another day of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the big story is the upcoming cold front that is forecast to impact South Florida starting Friday. The Weather Prediction Center's cluster analysis for the event has not yet converged on a single solution, with the two solutions describing the most amount of the variance being tied to the track of the eastward moving low pressure system. One solution, which is favored by the European ensemble, has the low pressure system strengthening and quickly moving up the coast as a Nor'easter. This solution brings a cold front down through Florida more quickly, and brings associated effects thursday evening. A second solution, more favored by the North American ensembles (GEFS, GEPS), has the surface low push further out into the Atlantic waters, and focuses impacts in Southern Florida on Friday morning instead. Depending on the placement of surface high pressure across the southeastern United States this upcoming weekend into early next week, surface wind flow will dictate just how long the dry and cool airmass will remain in place across South Florida.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

A few showers will be possible across the southern extent of South Florida early this evening. SHRA chances remain too low to include VCSH at this time. Winds will remain NErly at east coast terminals and NWrly at KAPF before winds become light and variable overnight tonight and Monday night.

MARINE

Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

A gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze will develop across most of the local waters through Monday. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become north northwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 1 to 3 feet through Monday while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame. Some isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out across the southern Atlantic waters through Monday.

BEACHES

Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion of the week. Minor coastal flooding will also remain possible along the east coast during each high tide cycle through the rest of the weekend and into early Monday morning due to the King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 73 84 73 84 / 20 20 20 20 West Kendall 72 85 72 84 / 30 20 10 20 Opa-Locka 72 85 72 85 / 20 20 20 20 Homestead 73 84 74 84 / 30 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 72 83 73 82 / 10 20 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 71 83 72 83 / 10 20 20 20 Pembroke Pines 71 86 72 85 / 20 20 20 20 West Palm Beach 69 84 71 83 / 0 10 10 20 Boca Raton 71 83 72 82 / 0 20 10 20 Naples 69 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.