textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains possible for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be likely.

- Chances for heavy rainfall return starting Saturday and being maximized Sunday- Monday as a disturbance moves across the area. Generalized 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts could lead to flooding.

- Increasing winds and seas across the local Atlantic waters tonight will result in hazardous boating conditions through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The synoptic pattern should remain generally unchanged today, with mid-level ridging in place over the Gulf and an area of high pressure overspreading the southeastern US. This setup will continue to promote light easterly-notheasterly winds across the area. Low- level moisture should remain plentiful (with PWATs in the 1.5-1.8 inch range), but the 00Z MFL sounding, along with ACARS data from KMIA, KFLL and KDJT, and forecast soundings, all show a pronounced dry layer between 700-500mb that looks to remain in place today. This, combined with subsidence beneath the ridge, should help continue to limit convective activity across South Florida throughout the day. A few isolated showers will remain possible, mainly as a result of diurnal heating in the afternoon, with PoPs in the 20-40% range. Chances for thunderstorms also remain very low, but cannot be ruled out entirely. Highs today will remain in the mid to upper 80s.

The pattern begins to transition on Saturday as an upper-level disturbance develops over the Gulf and gradually shifts eastward. At the same time, the axis of thr surface high over the SE CONUS will shift southeastward, helping to strengthen the pressure gradient across the western Atlantic waters and the FL peninsula. This will lead to increasing northeasterly to easterly winds across the area through the day, especially along the immediate East Coast. Concurrently, moisture advection aloft will help erode the dry air pocket and moisten the atmospheric column, while also helping enhance instability across the area. This setup, along with increasing convergence due to the enhanced pressure gradient, will help drive up the chances for more widespread rainfall activity on Saturday. In fact, some of the high-res guidance shows the possibility of repeated rounds of rainfall moving in from the Atlantic Ocean throughout the day. This could result in locally heavy rainfall and some localized flooding in spots. HREF rainfall accumulations show some 24-hour-accumulation bullseyes in the 1-3 inch range along the East coast metro, with a 1 in 10 chance of some locations seeing 2-4 inches. This, combined with lingering minor coastal flooding concerns, could exacerbate generalized flooding concerns across vulnerable areas. Highs on Saturday will remain in the mid 80s, with the warmest temperatures over interior and southwest FL.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The aforementioned upper-level disturbance should move across the Florida peninsula on Sunday, bringing the wettest period of the forecast. Increasing large-scale ascent, cooler mid-level temperatures and a deep moisture profile should support widespread shower and thunderstorm development through much of the day, with PoPs in the 80-90% range. Heavy rainfall and potential flooding will be the main concerns, with WPC already placing the East Coast metro areas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of Flash flooding on Sunday and Monday. In fact, guidance shows the highest convective coverage could be most likely along the East Coast. However, this will ultimately be very dependent on the timing, track and strength of the feature as it moves across the area.

DESI 500mb heights ensemble cluster analysis still shows a primary cluster with a weaker system that takes a more northerly track, while the other three clusters favor some flavor of a deeper system taking a more southerly track. The more northerly track would take the higher rainfall totals north across northern-central FL, while the more southerly tracks would keep the heavy rainfall concentrated across central and south FL. Among the global ensembles, the GEFS moves the system eastward faster, while the ENS shows the disturbance, and thus its impacts, lingering into Monday. As such, the ENS solution is also the wetter of the possible options. As a result of these slight guidance discrepancies, there is still somewhat low-to-medium confidence regarding the forecast for Sunday and Monday, but we erred on the side of the more southerly solutions and kept high PoPs gradually tapering off from west to east on Monday night.

Confidence in the forecast declines further as we head into the middle of next week. Mid-level ridging will look to build briefly across the area, favoring a brief dry out across the region Tuesday and Wednesday. However, later in the week the global models try to develop the next upper level trough and surface low over the Rockies. This complex would gradually move eastward and potentially bring a cold front across the FL peninsula late in the week. Considerable spread remains in the timing and strength of this solution, and we will continue to monitor the evolution of the forecast as we approach next week.

Temperatures will cool down a bit Sunday-Monday with the increased storminess and cloud cover, with highs in the mid 80s. Lows will slide into the mid 60s across the interior, and the low 70s along the coasts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible with lowering vis/cigs accompanying passing showers. A lower deck of clouds may linger across the area tonight and into Saturday. E/NE winds will continue tonight, and becoming gusty around 25kt after 15Z. VCTS has been introduced for Saturday late morning and afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Conditions will start to gradually deteriorate today as the pressure gradient over Florida strengthens. As a result, winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase up to 20-25 kts starting tonight, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft along the Gulf Stream. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect starting tonight and through the weekend. Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two remain possible today. Chances for more widespread rain and storms increase during the weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Coastal flooding remains likely along the southeastern and southern coastlines during the high tide cycles today. Observations continue to out-perform guidance by a decent margin, leading us to anticipate tidal gauges to continue reaching Moderate flooding levels once again today. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastline, while a Coastal Flood STatement remains in effect for mainland Monroe through this morning, where Minor stage coastal flooding could be possible.

A high risk of rip currents will also persist along the Atlantic coastline Sunday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 84 76 82 / 60 70 70 90 West Kendall 76 85 76 84 / 40 70 70 90 Opa-Locka 76 85 76 84 / 60 60 70 80 Homestead 76 86 76 84 / 40 60 70 90 Fort Lauderdale 76 83 75 82 / 60 60 80 90 N Ft Lauderdale 76 84 75 82 / 60 50 70 90 Pembroke Pines 75 85 75 84 / 60 60 70 90 West Palm Beach 75 84 75 82 / 40 30 60 80 Boca Raton 76 83 75 82 / 40 50 70 90 Naples 73 86 73 84 / 20 50 40 80

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172.

High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.