textproduct: Miami - South Florida

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1248 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Latest analysis shows a lingering surface boundary along the far southern tip of the peninsula, with high pressure remaining in control over the NE US. At the mid levels, there is very weak ridging across the state of FL, while the upper level southern jet is draped across Southern FL. This is all resulting in low level easterly flow and mid/upper level westerly flow. Light winds over interior SW FL may result in some patchy fog early this morning but should quickly dissipate by 13 or 14Z. There will be plenty of cloud cover again today, but little in the way of rainfall outside of some widely scattered coastal showers. Afternoon high temps will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temps tonight will range from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Rain chances increase a bit on Friday as a weak shortwave approaches the SE Gulf of Mexico and a surface boundary sits along the FL Straits. PWAT values increase a bit to 1.5-1.7 inches and forecast soundings show deeper moisture throughout the column. While thunderstorms will be most likely over the waters, an isolated thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out over land. High temps on Friday will again be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 201 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Increased moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.7 inches) will linger through the weekend leading to a slightly increased chance (30-40%) for isolated to scattered showers across the area with the best chance over eastern portions of the area and local Atlantic waters. For now, it appears that periodic rainfall may be possible, generally beginning by mid-day Friday into portions of Saturday and Sunday, though predominately dry conditions remain in place most of each day. As a strong upper level low transverses the central and eastern CONUS early next week, drier air will work its way across South Florida reducing rain chances and cloud cover although a stray shower could still be possible during this time period mainly across eastern portions of the area.

Temperatures remain seasonable through the long term period, with maximum temperatures generally reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s each afternoon. A drying trend is likely early next week, though a meaningful reduction in temperatures is unlikely as of now. Overnight, expect low temperatures in the 60s/70s along the interior/east coast respectively.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Widely scattered showers are possible today and tonight but shouldn't have much impact on ceilings or visibilities although skies will remain mostly cloudy through the period. NE to E winds 5-10 kts today.

MARINE

Issued at 1248 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Gentle to moderate easterly breeze expected today over the area waters with a fresh breeze developing over the Atlantic waters beginning on Friday. Seas 2-3 ft in the Atlantic waters building to 3-5 ft on Friday. Seas in the Gulf generally 2 ft or less through Friday. A few thunderstorms are possible over the waters on Friday.

BEACHES

Issued at 1248 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today along the Palm Beaches. A high risk of rips are expected beginning Friday for all Atlantic beaches as easterly flow strengthens.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 71 78 70 / 20 20 30 10 West Kendall 81 68 79 68 / 20 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 81 70 79 69 / 20 20 30 20 Homestead 80 70 79 70 / 20 20 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 79 71 78 70 / 20 20 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 79 71 78 70 / 20 20 30 20 Pembroke Pines 83 70 82 70 / 20 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 79 70 79 69 / 20 20 30 20 Boca Raton 80 70 79 70 / 20 20 30 20 Naples 81 66 80 65 / 10 20 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.