textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 421 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect today for coastal/metro Miami- Dade and Broward. Further heat concerns are expected for all of South FL the rest of this week. This may cause heat related concerns for sensitive populations.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening, mainly across Palm Beach and Broward counties. Heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and poor drainage flooding.

- Minor coastal flooding is possible this afternoon during high tide for Mainland Monroe.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 421 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Not much change in the current forecast with the latest analysis. A surface ridge is expected to continue building northwestward through Florida, as a surface trough deepens through the western Gulf, resulting in an east-west pressure gradient and predominately southerly surface winds. Aloft, a mid-level ridge continues to be positioned over the region, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft. This pattern continues to interact with the Atlantic seabreeze, shifting precipitation chances northeastward, with most of the current development focused in Palm Beach county in the area of most surface instability. While chances of any of these storms becoming severe is minimal, there is the potential that stronger storms may become severe with isolated areas of DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. With the anomalously warm midlevels (HREF 700mb Temps in the 75th percentile), without a storm with a robust updraft and storm structure, severe hail development is unlikely.

Localized flooding will also continue to be a concern due to weaker upper level flow and the potential for slow moving thunderstorms. While most CAMs models are inconsistent with the location of the heavy rain, most do have areas of 1-2" somewhere, which would cause issues in urban areas. Outlier models have >4" of rain in locations, however with 1.5-1.7" of precipitable water, chances are unlikely for these amounts.

Excessive heat will continue to be a concern today and into Wednesday as well. With the fairly stagnant pattern of ridging, subsidence warming will continue to keep temperatures and humidities stable, with temperatures remaining in the low 90s along the shores, mid 90s temperatures inland, and widespread RH values climbing into the 90s. Heat Indices will climb across the region into the mid 100s. With the heat index reaching borderline Heat Advisory criteria in some areas of south Florida, any shift upwards will need to be closely monitored for potential heat advisories.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 421 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Looking past Wednesday, there are major trend changes expected. The low pressure that has developed in the west Gulf is still anticipated to be absorbed into the main flow, and shift northeastward through the southeast CONUS, staying primarily north of Florida. Highs throughout this time are expected to remain in the 90s, Lows in the 80s costal/70s inland, RH values climbing into the 90s, and daily chances of afternoon precipitation. The main concern will continue to be the heat, with Friday having the highest potential for heat advisory criteria conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through most of the period, with stronger winds and gusts up to 20kts through Tuesday afternoon. The winds will primarily be southerly, with more southwesterly winds expected along the Gulf coast. VCTS is still expected along the east coast, with variable winds and temporary reductions to MVFR during heavier storms. Overnight, light and variable winds return before becoming southerly Wednesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 421 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Atlantic today with gentle southwesterly winds across the Gulf, with calmer winds in the evening. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the area waters each day. Locally hazardous winds and seas are the main hazards with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

BEACHES

Issued at 421 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Due to the ongoing new moon cycle, the potential for minor coastal flooding will be monitored Wednesday during high tide from late morning through early afternoon along the Mainland Monroe coastline.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 421 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Light south to southwesterly winds will continue today across South Florida with westerly to southwesterly winds developing this afternoon across Southwest Florida before becoming light and variable overnight. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in erratic winds with most of the thunderstorm activity expected in Southeast Florida. Dispersions will be good to very good today for most areas with excellent values across interior regions and near Lake Okeechobee. RH values will remain well above critical values, with RH values dropping only into the 50s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 93 80 93 / 10 40 10 10 West Kendall 77 94 79 94 / 0 40 10 20 Opa-Locka 78 94 80 94 / 10 40 20 10 Homestead 79 93 80 93 / 0 30 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 79 92 81 92 / 10 40 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 78 92 80 92 / 10 50 20 20 Pembroke Pines 79 96 81 96 / 10 50 20 10 West Palm Beach 77 93 79 93 / 20 40 20 20 Boca Raton 79 92 81 92 / 20 40 20 10 Naples 78 92 81 92 / 0 10 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ072-074-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.