textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 332 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM this evening with possible heat index values of 106-110F, mainly for coastal metro areas and interior Collier county. Max temps today will hit the low- mid 90s.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow around the Lake region.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Florida will find itself on the back end of a positively tilted mid- level trough, currently digging south into the peninsula. However, a stout 594 dam H5 high remains centered over Cuba, keeping a stronger influence over the weather pattern in South Florida. At the surface, a stalling front is currently creeping down into northern Florida, coinciding with an area of deep moisture. Mid-level water vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis indicates that there is a strong moisture gradient from north to south along the peninsula. In central and northern Florida, where scattered to widespread convection is currently ongoing, PWATs have climbed up to 2.3 to 2.4 inches, which is in the 90th percentile for this time of year. Meanwhile, recent ACARs soundings show that South Florida will still be under the influence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). This drier air should keep PWATs around the 1.6 to 1.7 range, which is in the 25th to 50th percentile for this time of year. So unlike the PWATmaxxing atmosphere up north, drier air should hinder shower and storm development for most of South Florida this afternoon. The highest chances for precipitation (25% to 40%) will be around the Lake Okeechobee region, closer to the stalled front and deeper moisture.

With a stronger pressure gradient in place between the surface high near the Florida Keys and the surface trough over eastern seaboard, breezy west to southwest winds will persist through most of the afternoon across the region. This looks to keep the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the immediate coast or inhibit it from forming at all, which will greatly limit forcing for convection today. Other than a few isolated showers, most areas should remain dry, with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Chances of precipitation for Friday will be slightly higher, with storms looking to focus along the Atlantic breeze during the afternoon. Once again, with stronger westerly flow persisting, the sea breeze will be pinned closer to the coast. However, more guidance shows the sea breeze pushing further inland into the metro, leading to higher confidence for some isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop. Overall, the higher chances will remain near Lake Okeechobee and closer to the deeper moisture and stalled front, but activity could zipper down the sea-breeze from north to south and into Miami-Dade county.

Hot temperatures will continue on Friday, with many areas seeing heat indices climbing up into the 105 to 108 F range. As a result another heat advisory may be needed for the eastern metro areas. Regardless, there will be widespread Major HeatRisk for most urban locations, affecting anyone without proper cooling and hydration.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Upper level troughing along the eastern seaboard will move off into the Atlantic over the weekend. Meanwhile, a shortwave perturbation is currently riding the monsoon high over the northern Great Plains. This feature will dig south and deepen over the midwest, with some solutions cutting off an upper low circulation just north of the Ohio River valley. This is where the forecast starts to become a little bit more uncertain, especially regarding the evolution of this system to start the next week. Ensemble cluster analysis is in agreement that anomalously deep troughing will overspread much of the eastern CONUS starting on Sunday, which should increase chances of precipitation at least for the Deep South. At the surface, this trough will induce a cold front that will push south into northern Florida through the beginning of the week, providing additional forcing and ascent for storms. This front is unlikely to make its way into South Florida, keeping the higher moisture and chances of precipitation over central Florida. There is also a signal for increased concentrations of Saharan dust to make its way into the region from the southeast. This would likely set up another situation where there is a north to south moisture gradient along the peninsula, with higher chances of precipitation closer to Lake Okeechobee and drier air hindering convection to the south.

Ensemble clusters are currently split into two general solutions regarding the possible midwest upper low: a more progressive northern stream system, and a slower southern stream system. About 60% of ensemble members show the upper low tracking northeast into the Great Lakes through the middle of the week, but keeping positively tilted troughing over the South. About 40% of members show the upper low tracking further into the mid-South and slower moving. This solution would likely provide better forcing and moisture for storms in South Florida. At the surface, winds are expected to remain southwesterly as high pressure focuses over the southern Gulf. However, winds are expected to trend more southerly as the main trough axis swings through the region. After that, winds may shift east for the middle of the week as the Atlantic ridge expands westward.

To sum it up, it's a pretty low confidence forecast for the long term due to the spread in solutions for several features upstream. In general, PoPs will increase through the weekend and into next week as better moisture works into the region. The unsettled weather pattern will have better support for stronger thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts being the main threats. The interaction of periphery mid-level SAL could possibly contribute to some severe wind gusts. Temperatures will remain warm through the period, with widespread moderate HeatRisk and isolated Major HeatRisk across most of South Florida.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Breezy west to southwest winds will persist through the rest of the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. VCTS are possible near the Lake Okeechobee region, possibly affecting KDJT.

MARINE

Issued at 408 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Moderate west-southwest winds continue during the next several days, with periods of wind speeds near 20kt over the offshore Atlantic waters today. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft, with possible 3 ft over the Atlantic offshore waters today.

BEACHES

Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today at all beaches of Collier county.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 93 79 92 / 0 30 20 70 West Kendall 74 94 75 92 / 0 30 10 60 Opa-Locka 78 95 78 93 / 0 30 20 70 Homestead 77 93 77 92 / 0 20 10 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 92 79 91 / 10 40 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 93 79 91 / 10 50 30 70 Pembroke Pines 79 93 79 92 / 10 40 30 70 West Palm Beach 77 93 77 92 / 10 60 40 80 Boca Raton 77 92 77 91 / 10 50 40 70 Naples 80 91 79 91 / 10 10 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068>070-072-074- 168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.