textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 603 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Heat Advisory for all of South FL today. Near record temperatures expected today and Tuesday.

- Unseasonably low RH values are expected over interior South FL today and Tuesday which may result in an elevated fire risk.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Surface high pressure will remain in control early this week, with upper level ridging across the region. Latest models show Saharan dust will linger across South FL, which will also help aid in the suppression of convection today and Tuesday. Outside of a few mid to late day showers and storms along the sea breeze in SE FL, most of the area will remain dry again today. High temps will near record territory today, with middle 90s across the metro, to upper 90s over the interior. Combine those temps with dewpoints in the 70s, and max heat indices will again be in the 105-110 range this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for all of South FL from 11 AM to 7 PM this evening. Mostly clear and mild overnight, with low temps ranging from the middle 70s over the interior to around 80 closer to the coasts.

On Tuesday a frontal boundary will slide from the TN valley to near the SE US coast. This will push some moisture further south down the peninsula by later in the day. Forecast soundings show PWAT values increasing to around 1.9 inches around the lake region, while remaining 1.6-1.7 inches over the far southern peninsula. With Saharan dust continuing to linger, expect another mostly dry day, however some scattered thunderstorms are possible late afternoon into the early evening around the lake region. With winds likely to remain westerly across the east coast metro throughout much of the afternoon, temps will likely be several degrees higher on Tuesday, with mid to upper 90s in the metro. Record high temps will again be in jeopardy. Max heat indices will again reach 105-110, so additional heat headlines will likely be needed.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Upper level ridging starts to break down across the region mid to late week as a trough starts to dig into the eastern US, and remains there through next weekend. Meanwhile, the higher Saharan dust concentrations will get shunted to our south. Low level moisture increases across the area with near normal PoPs (40-60%) returning to the forecast during the extended period. Convection will be primarily diurnally driven sea-breeze convection each day favoring the afternoon and early evening hours, with isolated coastal showers and storms overnight.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with max heat indices each day continuing to flirt with advisory criteria.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR expected to continue during the next 24 hours at all terminals. L/V flow increases from the SE around 10kt after 15-16Z, except for westerly flow at APF with afternoon Gulf breezes. L/V flow returns after 00Z.

MARINE

Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Atlantic waters today, with west to northwesterly winds across the Gulf waters. Mostly flat seas around a foot or less. A brief period of cautionary winds are possible over the Gulf waters Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Hot and dry conditions will continue early this week across South FL. Min RH values over the Everglades will fall to around 40 percent today and some locations may fall into the upper 30 percent range on Tuesday. Despite light westerly winds, the seasonably low RH values combined with ongoing drought conditions may result in an elevated fire risk today and Tuesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Record high temperatures are possible early this week. Here are the current records for Monday and Tuesday:

MON(YEAR) TUE(YEAR)

MIA 96 (2022) 96 (2022) FLL 98 (1924) 98 (1921) DJT 97 (1938) 96 (2022) APF 97 (2001) 97 (2001)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 96 79 98 80 / 10 0 10 0 West Kendall 97 76 98 78 / 10 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 97 80 99 80 / 10 0 10 0 Homestead 95 77 97 77 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 95 79 97 80 / 10 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 97 80 98 81 / 10 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 97 80 98 80 / 10 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 97 79 97 79 / 0 0 10 10 Boca Raton 95 79 95 79 / 10 0 10 10 Naples 92 78 91 80 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.