textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 227 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Dangerously cold temperatures and apparent temperatures are expected tonight into Sunday and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Members of the general public and agricultural interests are advised to prepare accordingly.

- Dangerous marine conditions will develop rapidly behind a strong cold front this afternoon. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest marine forecast over the next several days.

- Winds increase behind the cold front today with gusts to 40-45 mph possible from mid afternoon through early Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 227 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

The previous forecast remains mostly on track, with the only change being an expansion of the Freeze Warning to include metro Broward and metro Miami-Dade counties. However, even with this expansion, the areas to focus on in these zones will be western portions of the area that have more agricultural land (primarily west of the Turnpike out to Krome Ave.). In these areas, temperatures in the early morning hours have moderate to high probabilities of falling to 30-32 degree with the HREF highlighting anywhere from 40-70% chances. Therefore, as a result of this it was determined to expand the Freeze Warning to these areas.

Outside of that, not much has changed as we continue to monitor this frontal passage. Latest analysis shows the cold front working its way southeast and is currently just south of Lake O. As this occurs, winds will shift to out of the northwest but are not expected to really increase in velocity until the area of low pressure in the western Atlantic deepens substantially. This area of low pressure is expected to become a "bomb cyclone" as guidance highlights a pressure drop of 25-30mb in less than 24 hours. Once this rapid deepening takes place tonight, winds will increase rather quickly to 20-30 mph sustained and gusts up to 35-40 mph. Winds will decrease the second half of tomorrow, but remain breezy likely into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Bottom line up front: South FL will see historically cold temperatures and wind chills this weekend that haven't been experienced in many years!

First we need to get through today. We'll start the day off comparably mild with temperatures in the 40s/50s across the area. Scattered showers are expected along and ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to mid 60s.

The cold front associated with low pressure off the SE US coast will cross South FL this afternoon. As the low off the SE US coast deepens, a very tight pressure gradient will develop between that system and strong high pressure over the south-central US. West to NW winds behind the front will increase to 20-25 mph with gusts of 40-45 mph later today through early Sunday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of South FL from 2 PM today through 7 AM Sunday.

After the frontal boundary crosses this afternoon, very cold and dry air will filter into the region. A back-trajectory of this air mass expected can be traced back to Hudson Bay in Canada. By Sunday morning the 540 thickness line is projected to be just north of Lake Okeechobee. Latest model projections show the 850 mb temp falling to -5 to -10 C by early Sunday morning. So this will be by all indications an extreme cold event for our area. Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the mid to upper 20s around the lake region, to lower 30s across the rest of the area. By the air temperatures is only part of the story. With the blustery winds in place, feels like temperatures will be approaching levels rarely seen this far south in Florida. They will range from the mid to upper teens around the lake, to low/mid 20s over the rest of the area including across the metro. So with all that being said, there is a host of cold weather products that will be in effect from late tonight through 10 AM Sunday: An Extreme Cold Warning and Freeze Warning for Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach, with a hard freeze expected in Glades and Hendry. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory for inland Collier, Broward, and Miami-Dade. Finally, a Cold Weather Advisory for coastal Collier, Mainland Monroe, Coastal/metro Broward, and Coastal/metro Miami-Dade.

Despite mostly clear skies on Sunday, temps will be slow to rebound with the persistent NW flow continuing to pull cooler and drier air into the region. The pressure gradient will relax some, however winds will still remain breezy with afternoon gusts of 20-25 mph expected. Went on the lower end of guidance with temps, with afternoon highs only reaching the low to mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

The historic cold will continue into Monday with another morning of widespread sub freezing temperatures over inland South FL and near freezing temps across the metro. Another round of cold weather headlines should be expected. As high pressure moves over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday a slow warming trend will be experienced however remaining below normal. The next front will cross the area on Thursday. While not as strong, it will reinforce the cooler air which will keep temperatures below normal through the end of the week and into the beginning of next weekend.

Monday will be the coldest day of the extended with highs only reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs the rest of the week into early next weekend will be in the 60s/70s each day. Low temps on Tuesday will be around the freezing mark over inland SW FL, with lower 40s across the east coast metro. Lows mid week will be in the 40s/50s, and then drop into the 40s again by the end of the week, with some upper 30s possible west of the lake.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

A strong cold front will move across the area this afternoon with WNW winds picking up to 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts this evening through tonight. Some light rain shower activity and lower CIGS likely in the MVFR category are possible ahead and along the cold front today. CIGs will rise later this evening with skies clearing out.

MARINE

Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Dangerous marine conditions begin today as a strong cold front moves through the area. WNW winds increase to 30-40 kts in the Atlantic and Gulf waters with gusts around 45 kts. Seas build to 10-15 ft. Gale Warnings are in effect beginning this morning and running until Sunday morning for Lake Okeechobee and Biscayne Bay and Sunday afternoon for the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Hazardous seas will continue for the Gulf waters through late Sunday night and for the Atlantic waters until at least early Tuesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Increasing onshore flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Gulf beaches this weekend. In addition, a high surf advisory is in effect for Collier beaches this afternoon through early Sunday afternoon for 5-8 ft waves in the surf zone.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

A very cold and dry airmass is expected Sunday into early next week. Critically low RH values are expected over much of South FL Sunday and Monday and over SW FL on Tuesday. Fire weather headlines may be needed on Sunday if winds remain elevated during the afternoon when the lowest RH values occur.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 34 52 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 31 54 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 34 54 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 36 55 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 34 52 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 34 52 35 59 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 33 54 34 60 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 31 51 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 32 53 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 37 54 36 60 / 20 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for FLZ063-066>068-168.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for FLZ063-066>068-070>074-168.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ069.

High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ069.

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for FLZ069>075-172>174.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ610-630.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.