textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1259 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across SW Florida each afternoon through the weekend.

- Heat indices will rise into the upper 90s and lower 100s across most areas each afternoon through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Atlantic beaches will remain under a high risk of rip currents through this evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

The pattern will remain generally unchanged today, with an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf and over the peninsula and an upper level low meandering over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters, extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining some moisture advection near the surface. However, overnight observations from the 00Z MFL sounding and ACARS flights at KMIA continue to show a notable pocket of drier air intruding near the mid-levels. With prevailing easterly flow and some low-level moisture still in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast, especially along the sea breeze boundaries over interior/southwest FL each day. However, with drier air aloft and weak forcing and steering, any activity that develops should be transient and sub-severe in nature, with occasional lightning and some gusty winds the main impacts. Some spots could get half an inch to an inch of rain, but otherwise the risk of localized flooding remains low at this time.

Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), with heat indices peaking in the mid 90s across the East Coast, and up into the triple digits across southwest FL. Warm overnight temperatures, especially across the East Coast, will impede much in the way of relief, especially for any vulnerable communities.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

The pattern will remain generally unchanged through the weekend, with upper level ridging extending across the Gulf and over the peninsula. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters, extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining healthy moisture advection along the atmospheric column. Ensemble guidance places PWAT values during the period solidly near the climatological normals for this time of year (1.5-1.7 inches) while model soundings show this moisture permeating the whole column.

With prevailing easterly flow and ample moisture in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast over the weekend and into next week, especially along the sea breeze boundaries each afternoon. Although some isolated activity will likely develop over the East Coast metro early each afternoon, the better chances (in the 40-60% range) will be spread out across southwest Florida and the interior where the Gulf breeze will impinge on the coastline. Model guidance has also started hinting at a wetter, more unsettled pattern developing late next week, but much uncertainty still remains at this time, so we'll continue to monitor for any forecast changes.

Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), although some of the shower activity could help provide some brief, localized relief and help temper conditions. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Breezy east-southeasterly flow will prevail across the region today with the exception of the development of a gulf breeze at KAPF between 17-19z. SHRA/TSRA is forecast to develop mainly across the western half of the region, which could bring bouts of sub MVFR cigs/vis at KAPF this afternoon. Lessening east-southeasterly surface wind flow overnight with mainly VFR conditions expected. Similar evolution expected on Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breeze will persist across most of the local waters through the rest of the week. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become west southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day through the rest of the week across the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 219 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Strong onshore flow and will promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through at least this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 89 79 89 / 10 20 20 20 West Kendall 76 91 76 90 / 0 30 20 20 Opa-Locka 78 91 78 90 / 10 30 20 20 Homestead 78 90 78 90 / 10 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 80 88 80 88 / 10 20 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 79 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 20 Pembroke Pines 79 92 79 91 / 0 30 20 20 West Palm Beach 80 88 80 88 / 0 30 20 20 Boca Raton 81 88 81 87 / 10 20 30 20 Naples 76 91 77 92 / 20 50 40 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.