textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 220 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Tropical Depression Two has formed in the eastern Gulf. This system will have no direct impacts to South Florida as it will be moving north northwestward away from the region through early next week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the evening hours especially across interior locations. A strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out containing gusty winds and heavy downpours.

- Heat will remain a concern heading into the early to middle portion of the week as peak heat index values will range between 105 and 110 across most of the area.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Tropical Depression Two has developed in the northeastern Gulf and it will slowly move north northwestward away from the region heading into early next week. While this system will have no direct impacts on South Florida, the extreme outer bands will be able to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in combination with sea breeze collisions through the early evening hours. While strong thunderstorm development looks to remain rather limited this afternoon, it cannot be entirely ruled out as enough instability remains in place due to peak diurnal heating. With some drier air working into the mid levels of the atmospheric column, DCAPE values remain rather elevated and range between 900 and 1100 J/kg this afternoon. This will be supportive of the potential for gusty winds with the strongest thunderstorms. While showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish as the evening progresses across the eastern half of the region, additional convection will remain possible during the overnight hours over the Gulf waters as well as Southwest Florida as the outer bands of TD Two push through the region. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to the lower 80s along the east and west coast.

While similar conditions are anticipated tomorrow, mid level ridging off to the east will begin to slowly push over the region as Tropical Depression Two meanders and drifts north northwestward in the eastern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will continue to slowly push westward towards the region. This will create a tight pressure gradient across the area which will allow for a breezy south to southeasterly wind flow to continue throughout the day on Monday. Convection development will be ongoing heading into Monday morning over the Gulf waters and Southwest Florida due to the extreme outer bands of Tropical Depression Two continuing to move through the region. However, as the day progresses, shower and thunderstorm chances will be more sea breeze driven and will gradually focus over the Lake Okeechobee region later in the day where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries will collide. Heat will remain a concern on Monday as peak heat index values of 105 to 110 will be common across most of the region.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The extended period continues to be a lengthy period that lacks any impactful synoptic features for South Florida when dissecting the latest ensembles. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will slowly attempt to expand back over the region, while an amplified trough sits over the northeast US and a stout ridge sits across the western US. Neither of the latter features are expected to budge out of their positions until late in the week when increased jet dynamics over the Midwest states cause a deepening of the trough across the Atlantic coast. This may push a frontal boundary southwards but it will not be able to advance further south than the Northern Florida region. Therefore, the overall flow pattern will be weak and result in the the primary convective conductors being diurnal heating and the afternoon sea breezes. Because of the weak flow aloft and near the surface, sea breezes will be able to advance inland each day and result in highest PoPs over inland/interior areas. Drier than normal air will be present in the middle of the week while models are highlighting weak capping inversions in the mid to late week period as well, which would create a more stable environment that leads to less rain shower and thunderstorm coverage. Thus, rain chances are currently much lower than normal in the middle of the week (15-30%).

Looking ahead into the end of the week and next weekend, one feature that has been identified that is worth monitoring trends for over the next several days is a westward moving upper-level trough across the Caribbean late in the week. If this feature enhances or shifts in track at all, there would be potential for some increased rain late in the week or into the weekend. Uncertainty remains high, but we will be monitoring the potential.

Otherwise, with the likely lower amount shower and thunderstorm coverage in the early and middle portions of next week, heat will be the highest impactful concern as temperatures are forecast in the mid to upper 90s each day. As a result, heat advisory potential will be assessed daily. It is advised to continue to limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you begin to experience symptoms of heat exhaustion or heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. SSE winds will continue at 10 to 15 kts throughout the afternoon across the east coast terminals with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop near the terminals this afternoon before gradually diminishing as the evening progresses. Winds could be erratic near thunderstorm activity. At KAPF, SW winds of 10 to 15 kts will continue this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A moderate to fresh south southeasterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters through the early portion of the week as Tropical Depression Two meanders in the northeastern Gulf. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will range from 2 to 4 feet through the early portion of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters during this time frame.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 93 81 93 / 10 20 0 10 West Kendall 78 94 78 94 / 10 20 0 10 Opa-Locka 81 94 81 95 / 10 30 10 10 Homestead 81 93 80 93 / 10 20 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 82 92 82 92 / 10 30 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 81 93 81 93 / 10 30 10 10 Pembroke Pines 82 95 82 95 / 10 30 10 10 West Palm Beach 79 93 80 93 / 10 40 20 10 Boca Raton 81 91 81 91 / 10 30 20 10 Naples 81 91 80 92 / 50 50 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.