textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop today with the highest chances remaining over the interior and Southwest Florida. - Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most areas this afternoon resulting in a widespread moderate HeatRisk across the metro areas.

- Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the week will introduce a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Increased ESE flow has allowed for scattered showers to move onshore from the Atlantic over the course of the morning. Current mid-level water vapor imagery and recent ACARs soundings indicate that South Florida is still under the influence of deep tropical moisture, with PWATs once again above the 75th percentile for this time of year. With Atlantic ridging strengthening and extending into Florida, breezier easterly flow will likely allow for quicker storm motions. Despite storm motions being a little bit quicker than the last few days, the main threat for this afternoon will once again be heavy torrential rainfall. Scattered to numerous storms look to develop along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions this afternoon. However, unlike the last few days, easterly flow will shift the main focus of thunderstorms more towards interior and Southwest Florida. HREF ensemble guidance indicates that the highest probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rainfall (about 40% chance) will be along the Gulf breeze in Collier county. Localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches over urban areas may create isolated flooding impacts along poor drainage and low lying locations. Heavy rain may also create lower visibilities and hazardous driving conditions, particularly over Alligator Alley and Tamiami Trail. The presence of some lingering mid-level dry air and DCAPE values between 700 and 900 J/kg may also hint at an isolated threat of a few strong wind gusts. Frequent lightning will also be common with any storm.

Storm activity should wane after sunset, with light easterly winds persisting. Overnight, isolated shower activity looks to once again develop over the more unstable Gulf Stream waters, moving onshore over the eastern metro. Thursday afternoon will be pretty similar to Wednesday, with scattered to numerous storms focusing along interior and Southwest Florida. With moist conditions persisting, the main threats will once again be locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and isolated strong wind gusts. The pressure gradient for Thursday may be a little bit stronger, so breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts may be more common. As result, storm motions may once again be a little bit quicker towards the west.

Widespread Moderate HeatRisk will persist for all urban areas through the period. Maximum temperatures will be near average for this time of year, in the lower 90s. Heat indices look to remain just below Heat Advisory criteria for most locations, but still climb up into the 100 to 108 F range. Sensitive individuals without proper cooling and hydration will be at risk of heat illness under these conditions.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

For the end of the week, the main feature of focus will be the approach of a mid level and surface inverted trough that will be moving towards the region from the western Atlantic. This feature will allow for the pressure gradient to remain tight over South Florida on Friday resulting in a breezy east to southeasterly wind flow to remain in place. Uncertainty does rise for this part of the forecast as the latest global and ensemble guidance suite remains in disagreement in regards to how it handles the intensity and mid level energy associated with this inverted trough. The ECMWF guidance suite shows the bulk of the mid level energy associated with this disturbance curving offshore before reaching the Florida coastline, however, the GFS guidance suite pushes most of the mid level energy over the region during this time frame. The recurved/more offshore solution would keep the higher moisture surge offshore and it would feature more of a typical summertime pattern with showers and storms that are more sea breeze driven. With the extra mid to upper level support pushing over the Florida Peninsula, this would help to enhance shower and thunderstorm coverage during this time frame. Given the uncertainty, the latest forecast does continue to favor elevated shower and thunderstorm chances on Friday, however, it keeps the highest chances over the interior as well as Southwest Florida due to the stronger easterly wind flow. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Friday will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s with peak heat index values ranging between 103 and 108.

During the upcoming weekend, this inverted trough will quickly push off to the north of the region on Friday night and rather strong mid level ridging will begin to extend southwestward again from the western Atlantic across South Florida on Saturday and Sunday. Surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will also extend southwestward back towards the region and into the eastern Gulf during this time frame. This will result in a return to convective initiation being sea breeze driven and with east to southeasterly wind flow staying in place, the highest chances of showers and storms will remain over the interior and Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. Due to mid level ridging building back into the area, this will allow for high temperatures to return to the lower 90s across most areas with peak heat index values generally ranging between 105 and 110 each day during this time frame.

Heading into the early portion of next week, the latest global and ensemble guidance continues to hint at strong mid level ridging over the western Atlantic continuing to nudge closer to South Florida heading into Monday. However, there is also a signal of another mid level inverted trough that may try to push towards the region heading into Tuesday. Uncertainty in this part of the forecast is on the higher end due to guidance discrepancies in the exact location and strength of this feature. This part of the forecast may also be complicated by the potential arrival of a Saharan Dust layer that will be approaching the region as well from the southeast. For now, the latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and features sea breeze initiated convection each day with the highest chances remaining over the interior and Southwest Florida. High temperatures during the early portion of the week have the potential to rise above climatological normals due to the stronger ridging in place and the potential Saharan Dust pushing into the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Scattered showers continue to move onshore from the Atlantic, which may produce brief visibility and ceiling restrictions. Have included VCTS for all eastern sites, but VFR conditions should persist through the period. Breezy easterly winds will persist, becoming more light overnight. A Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF, where there is higher confidence for thunderstorms. Storm activity should wane after sunset and winds become more light and variable across Southwest Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Light to gentle winds across most of the local waters will gradually build out of the east today into Thursday, becoming moderate across most local waters through late week. Occasional fresh breezes are possible over the Atlantic waters during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less today, however, seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually increase and could range between 3 to 4 feet heading into Thursday and Friday.

BEACHES

Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Easterly winds will gradually increase through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. This will allow for the rip current risk to become high during this timeframe across the Atlantic Coast beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 90 80 90 / 40 60 50 70 West Kendall 76 91 77 91 / 40 60 40 70 Opa-Locka 79 91 79 91 / 40 60 50 70 Homestead 79 90 79 91 / 40 60 50 70 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 80 89 / 40 60 60 80 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 40 60 60 80 Pembroke Pines 80 90 80 90 / 40 60 60 70 West Palm Beach 79 90 79 90 / 40 60 60 70 Boca Raton 79 89 79 89 / 40 60 60 80 Naples 76 92 76 92 / 20 70 20 90

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.