textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions return today with the passage of a cold front this afternoon.

- High risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches and Collier Beaches today.

- Colder weather returns tonight into Friday morning in the wake of a passing cold front, followed by warming temperatures this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 207 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A robust troughing pattern has set up across the Eastern Seaboard for the late week period, which will force the surface high pressure in the western Atlantic away from the area as the trough advects eastward. Along the leading edge of this trough will be another incoming cold front, but this one is not expected to be quite as strong as the last one. Nevertheless, a steep enough drop in temperatures is still expected later Thursday night after the front pushes southwards through the region Thursday afternoon. There will also be increased chances for rain with this frontal passage, but first we will discuss the colder air arrival with its potential impacts.

The main concern here with the front moving through and the colder air it brings with it will be the potential for apparent temperatures (feels-like temperatures) to fall into the low to mid 30s across most of Southwestern Florida and other inland locations. In terms of ambient temperatures, low temperatures Thursday night are expected to drop into the mid 30s in Glades and Hendry counties as well as the upper 30s for almost everywhere else. Coastal and most metro locations are likely to be the only locations to not fall below the 40s. Looking at the NBM 90th percentile values (a reasonable high-end for the overnight low temperatures), they are no higher than the upper 30s in Glades and Hendry counties and low to mid 40s everywhere else. On the contrary, the NBM 10th percentile (reasonable lowest temperatures possible) highlights ambient temperatures below freezing in Glades/Hendry while pushing the rest of the region into the mid to upper 30s. Furthermore, looking at the latest HREF guidance, the chances for ambient temperatures reaching less than 40 degrees are anywhere from 30-60% across South Florida except for the immediate coastlines and east coast metro. Adding any level of breezy winds into this post-front will make apparent temperatures feel several degrees less or even lower.

Therefore, by taking all of this into account and winds likely to remain a little breezy still behind the frontal passage, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all of the inland areas in South Florida for apparent temperatures expected to fall to 35 degrees or less for several hours. This advisory will be in effect from 3AM - 9AM Friday morning. Other than this, not expecting any other cold weather products to be issued at this time even though there is a low-end chance for a freeze in Glades and Hendry counties. We will evaluate this further in the near term today.

Other than the colder temperatures, we will see some rain development as the boundary propagates through South Florida and creates a lifting mechanism for moist air to rise and saturate. Some of these rain showers could be of the heavier variety, but with the 90th percentile 24-hour QPF only being 1-2", no rainfall impacts are expected and any rain will assist with the recent drought that has been ongoing. Thunderstorms are not expected with this shower activity due to convective parameters being extremely low or non- existent under a relatively stable environment despite the cold front.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 207 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

As the deep trough advects away from the U.S. east coast early this weekend, surface high pressure begins to rebuild over the Gulf and extend its axis across the southeast states along with a dry air mass settling back in. With the abundantly dry air returning, dry conditions will return to the region likely through the entire long term period. Mid-level and upper-level ridging will also enhance beginning this weekend, resulting in the onset of a temperature moderation as high pressure subsidence occurs and onshore flow from the Gulf waters simultaneously occurs.

As a result, beyond Friday morning cold weather headlines are not expected to be needed even as a dry and weak backdoor cold front advects across the area. As the mid-level and upper-level ridge continues to build and shift more over the Florida Peninsula by early next week, daytime highs are expected to rise back to the upper 70s and even low 80s for some areas. Overnight lows will remain a bit chilly, especially over inland areas and around the lake. Lows each night this weekend through early next week will generally be in the 40s for Southwest Florida and 50s for Southeast Florida.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Scattered showers will continue near the east coast terminals through the 22-23z as a cold front pushes through. Periods of MVFR conditions are possible across all terminals through 20-22z as a lower cloud deck associated with the front moves through. Winds rapidly increase out of the WNW and will range between 15-20 kts this afternoon through the early evening hours. Gusts up to 25 kts will be common during this time frame. These winds will gradually diminish later this evening into the overnight hours.

MARINE

Issued at 207 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Hazardous winds and seas return by Thursday afternoon as a strong cold front moves across the area. The hazardous conditions will last in the Gulf waters through early Friday, and will linger into the weekend for the Atlantic waters. Winds will rise to a strong breeze to near Gale through Thursday night before starting to lessen on Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Seas are also expected to rise to 7-10 feet late Thursday and Thursday night before starting to decrease on Friday. However, lingering 6-8 foot seas are still possible in the Atlantic waters through the first half of the weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 207 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Lingering swell will result in an ongoing high risk of rip currents today for the Palm Beaches, along with increasing onshore winds due to an approaching cold front for the Gulf coast leading to a high rip risk for the Collier beaches as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 44 66 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 38 67 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 42 67 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 42 67 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 43 66 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 44 66 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 42 66 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 42 64 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 42 66 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 45 64 53 72 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ063- 066-067-070-071-073.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ069.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ651-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657-676.