textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Heat indices will range between 100-105 degrees today. While below advisory thresholds, dehydration can still occur with prolonged exposure.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today will primarily focus across inland and Southwest Florida. An isolated strong storm is possible.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Taking a look at the latest GOES-R infrared and water vapor satellite imagery, the upper-level low in the northeastern Gulf waters is remaining rather stagnant as it is stuck between a ridge off to the west and an elongated trough across the northeast US. With this synoptic pattern, the low will struggle to propagate further away from its current location in the near term. By Monday, the low is expected to decrease in intensity while eventually getting sucked up into the upper level troughing pattern across the northeast US. The near surface circulation that the low pressure area has begun to exhibit early this morning is likely to continue through the next couple of days as well. In fact, latest ASCAT winds appear to show a surface low pressure circulation due west of the Tampa area. Overall, the National Hurricane Center currently gives this area of low pressure a 60% chance to strengthen into a low-end Tropical Cyclone within the next two days, but a worst case scenario is viewed as this low becoming a Tropical Depression while it fades out early in the week. No major impacts are expected to occur for South Florida regardless of any partial enhancement of the low since the low would weaken over AL/MS or Georgia.

In terms of the local weather regime in the short term, given the pattern explained above there is not much change occurring. Thus, a similar couple of days is expected to what occurred yesterday. Low level flow will be out of the south-southeast due to circulation around the low pressure in the northeast Gulf. The outer bands of this circulation will reach the Gulf coast, which supports early morning convection chances for Collier county and other Gulf coast areas. Later in the day, some of these showers and storms will spread closer to the east coast metro areas and likely some extra convection will fire off the sea breeze circulations in the afternoon. With the south-southeast prevailing flow, the Atlantic breeze is not expected to advance very far inland either which could set the stage for some late day convection along the east coast metro areas. There is still a weak Saharan Air Layer present as well, creating some dry pockets in the atmospheric column that could support an isolated storm or two capable of producing strong wind gusts to near marginally severe levels. This is an extremely conditional case, but remains possible both today and again on Monday.

Overall, minus the extremely low chance of a stronger storm core or two forming today and Monday, no major hazards are expected. High temperatures will begin to rebound back towards the mid 90s, which might reach borderline Heat Advisory levels for Miami-Dade and Broward. However, criteria will struggle to be reached as convection and cloud cover likely enter the picture when this peak heating time frame occurs. As a result, no Heat Advisory has been issued again for today. Remaining well hydrated and taking cooling breaks when possible is still highly advised given heat index values reaching 100-105 degrees today.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The extended period continues to be a lengthy period that lacks any impactful synoptic features for South Florida when dissecting the latest ensembles. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will slowly attempt to expand back over the region, while an amplified trough sits over the northeast US and a stout ridge sits across the western US. Neither of the latter features are expected to budge out of their positions until late in the week when increased jet dynamics over the Midwest states cause a deepening of the trough across the Atlantic coast. This may push a frontal boundary southwards but it will not be able to advance further south than the Northern Florida region. Therefore, the overall flow pattern will be weak and result in the the primary convective conductors being diurnal heating and the afternoon sea breezes. Because of the weak flow aloft and near the surface, sea breezes will be able to advance inland each day and result in highest PoPs over inland/interior areas. Drier than normal air will be present in the middle of the week while models are highlighting weak capping inversions in the mid to late week period as well, which would create a more stable environment that leads to less rain shower and thunderstorm coverage. Thus, rain chances are currently much lower than normal in the middle of the week (15-30%).

Looking ahead into the end of the week and next weekend, one feature that has been identified that is worth monitoring trends for over the next several days is a westward moving upper-level trough across the Caribbean late in the week. If this feature enhances or shifts in track at all, there would be potential for some increased rain late in the week or into the weekend. Uncertainty remains high, but we will be monitoring the potential.

Otherwise, with the likely lower amount shower and thunderstorm coverage in the early and middle portions of next week, heat will be the highest impactful concern as temperatures are forecast in the mid to upper 90s each day. As a result, heat advisory potential will be assessed daily. It is advised to continue to limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you begin to experience symptoms of heat exhaustion or heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR is generally expected to prevail for the period. SE winds around 10-15 kts for the east coast terminals and SSW winds at KAPF in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20-25 kts are likely through the day. Scattered SHRA and TS are most likely to impact KAPF today with spurts of MVFR or lower CIGs while activity should stay westward and away from the east coast terminals. There is an outside chance for activity to reach east coast areas late in the day, but confidence is low with that.

MARINE

Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Moderate to fresh southerly to southeasterly winds are expected today and into early this upcoming week across the local waters as an area of low pressure sits in the northeast Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across all local waters each day with higher chances for the Gulf waters. Seas across the Gulf waters today and into the early week period are projected between 2-4 feet with the Atlantic waters at 2 feet or less. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorms over the waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 93 81 93 81 / 20 10 20 0 West Kendall 93 78 94 77 / 20 10 20 0 Opa-Locka 94 80 95 80 / 20 10 30 0 Homestead 93 80 93 80 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 92 81 93 81 / 20 10 30 0 N Ft Lauderdale 92 81 93 81 / 20 10 30 10 Pembroke Pines 95 81 95 82 / 20 10 30 0 West Palm Beach 92 79 93 79 / 20 10 50 10 Boca Raton 91 80 92 81 / 20 10 40 10 Naples 91 80 91 80 / 60 50 60 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.