textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts will occur again today with peak heat index values ranging between 105 and 110 degrees across most areas.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase area wide heading into the middle of the week as a frontal boundary stalls out to the north.

- A return to more of a typical summertime pattern is anticipated this weekend as high pressure builds in from the western Atlantic.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Sea breeze interactions are the main topic for the rest of today, with thunderstorms developing in far southern Dade County as of 17Z. Additional inland storms are expected to develop the remainder of the afternoon hours, before dying off as the usual time. Thunderstorms are more active today to the north, as a complex of thunderstorms is affecting areas between Tampa and Orlando in response to diffuse surface trough / old frontal boundary. This will be the primary focus for thunderstorms today, which should remain mostly inland and in the northern areas.

Rain chances wane tonight, yet increase on Wednesday afternoon. SAL continues to be a factor with relatively dry conditions, with this morning's PWAT of 1.52" as of 12Z, but have slowly been rising throughout the day. PWAT values are progged to continue to increase back to normal levels and above, with values expected to be around 2" by Wednesday afternoon. This will help produce more widespread shower and thunderstorms Wednesday and beyond.

With the relative "dry" layer today, heat index values are close to being overly problematic, with heat index values around 105, with a few urban areas briefly going above this threshold.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Thunderstorm chances then increase more diurnally Thursday and Friday as the upper level ridge continues to move slowly into the Virginia's. There continues to be a weakness in the ridge moving through Florida through the rest of the week, assisting in the daily thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the terminals today, with low chances thunderstorms. The low chances for thunderstorms is for the coastal areas, as thunderstorms will be in the interior portions of South Florida. Winds will be more or less following the usual sea breeze pattern, with easterly-southeasterly winds on the east coast, with a southwesterly winds at KAPF.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Across the Atlantic waters, winds will remain rather gentle and variable through the middle of the week. Across the Gulf waters, a gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze will develop this afternoon before shifting and becoming east northeasterly tonight. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the local waters each day through the rest of the week. However, showers and storms may become more numerous towards the middle of the week as a frontal boundary stalls to the north of the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 92 78 91 / 10 80 50 70 West Kendall 76 93 75 92 / 20 80 50 80 Opa-Locka 79 93 78 93 / 20 80 40 80 Homestead 78 92 78 92 / 20 70 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 79 91 / 20 70 40 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 78 90 / 20 70 40 70 Pembroke Pines 80 95 80 94 / 20 70 40 80 West Palm Beach 78 91 78 91 / 20 60 30 80 Boca Raton 79 90 78 90 / 20 60 40 70 Naples 77 92 77 91 / 30 60 40 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.