textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 732 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Generally benign weather continues through the end of the week. Above average temperatures could be likely over the weekend.

- Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Friday evening.

- Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire.

UPDATE

Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Added some slight chance PoPs into the forecast for tonight into early tomorrow morning. Models are picking up on some mid level vorticity moving across South FL overnight along with an increase in low level moisture. This should allow for some shallow showers to develop and move in off the warm Atlantic waters.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 328 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Sfc analyses and latest model guidance keep the ridge/deep high pressure over the SE CONUS holding its ground for two more days, but the storm systems lingering across the central CONUS should eventually break the high pressure grip on the SE states. In the meantime, the FL peninsula will remain under the dominance of the high pressure, with the ridge axis slowly drifting closer to SoFlo. This will keep the area under a warm and dry weather regime through the rest of the week.

00Z MFL sounding and model sounding data keep PWATs below 1 inch for the next couple of days, with only a shallow layer of moisture lingering around the lower 1km, and a very dry air mass dominating up to 9km. So far, radar continues to show very little marine shower activity over the Atlantic waters, with very low chances of shallow marine showers making it into the east coast metro areas. And as in the past few days, any shower that actually reaches the coast should remain light and very brief.

The influence of the ridge should keep pressure gradients weak, resulting in shorter periods of breezy easterly winds. However, some occasional gusty periods are still possible around the Atlantic coastline during the rest of this afternoon.

Max temps on Friday should reach the low-mid 80s for much of SoFlo, with possible upper 80s or even low 90s over the west coast. Nighttime lows should remain in the low-mid 60s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s near the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Conditions will remain generally unchanged over the weekend, but a gradual pattern change will begin to take hold across the continental US, which could result in unsettled weather early next week.

Aloft, an upper-level trough will begin to dig across the Plains and the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, eroding the ridge over the Gulf and weakening the surface high. This gradual process will allow for some moisture to filter back into the region, with models PWATs surging back to near normal values for this time of the year (1.1- 1.3 inches). This could allow for some isolated rainshowers to develop Saturday and Sunday afternoons, especially along any sea breeze boundaries that manage to develop.

Conditions could begin to deteriorate early next week as an attendant surface low associated with the upper-level trough develops and moves across the Great Lakes region. As it does, it will drag a cold front south towards the Florida peninsula. Most model guidance shows this front dropping along the peninsula early in the week, clearing the area by midweek. Ahead of the front, chances for rainfall increased across the region, especially Monday evening and Tuesday. However, much uncertainty remains with this solution; a deeper, faster trough (and thus a stronger, faster front) could result in generally drier conditions for our area, while a slower, weaker trough could lead to higher QPFs for the region. For now, the NBM supports a slightly deeper, faster solution with 30-40% PoPs each day, and QPFs less than 1 inch. We will continue to monitor this solution as the forecast evolves.

Above average temperatures will be likely this weekend as weak easterly flow prevails, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon. Conditions could cool back down to more seasonable temperatures once the front moves across the area, with highs next week in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows each night could dip into the 50s across the interior, and down to the 60s along the coasts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next day. Light and variable winds overnight into early morning. Easterly winds develop on Friday with speeds around 10 kts. An afternoon westerly Gulf breeze will develop at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A moderate breeze will prevail across the local Atlantic waters as high pressure remains in place over the region. Lighter winds will set up over the Gulf waters. Seas will drop to 2-4 ft in the Atlantic and remain 2 feet or less in the Gulf. Another period of breezy, hazardous conditions could approach early next week with the passage of a cold front.

BEACHES

Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Strong onshore flow will promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 70 84 72 85 / 20 20 0 0 West Kendall 67 86 69 87 / 20 20 0 0 Opa-Locka 70 86 72 87 / 20 20 0 0 Homestead 70 85 72 85 / 20 20 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 82 73 83 / 20 20 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 71 83 72 83 / 20 20 0 0 Pembroke Pines 72 87 73 88 / 20 20 0 0 West Palm Beach 70 83 71 85 / 20 20 0 0 Boca Raton 71 83 72 83 / 20 20 0 0 Naples 66 87 70 88 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.