textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 655 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible with gusty winds being the main threat.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the weekend for much of the area with the highest probability of Major HeatRisk along the Florida East Coast.

- Drier air associated with the Saharan Air Layer will slowly move into the area later this week and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 349 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Storms will continue to develop along the sea breeze and colliding outflow boundaries through the afternoon and will linger into the early evening hours again today. While the strongest convection resides along the East Coast sea breeze as of 18-19Z, the axis of highest MLCAPE and DCAPE resides further inland, which is where the outflow boundaries from the sea breeze storms are currently racing towards. Expect an uptick in convection further inland later this afternoon as all of the boundaries start to collide. Dry conditions prevail tonight by 02-03z and will continue through the overnight.

Lingering smoke remains a concern again overnight near the ongoing wildfires on the western fringe of the Miami metro area. The Air Quality Alert for Miami-Dade County was extended until 3pm tomorrow due to the lingering smoke concerns across the county.

There is a signal in some of the recent runs of the high-res guidances that indicate an early start to convection on Thursday. Showers and storms could begin to push inland from the Atlantic waters and into the East Coast metro areas between 11-13Z. After an early start, the bulk of the convection looks to hold off until the afternoon hours as it develops along the sea breeze and boundary collisions. DCAPE will be high enough tomorrow that gusty winds will be a concern with any of the late afternoon storms. Localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas will be a concern as well given the generally light flow tomorrow.

In addition to the storms, heat remains a concern tomorrow with high temperatures topping out in the mid to low 90s with heat indices of 103-107 again. HeatRisk remains in the Moderate to Major category for much of the area, especially closer to the coastlines. Highest probability of Major HeatRisk (50-60% chance) remains along the East Coast of Florida.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 349 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

No significant changes to the forecast as we roll toward the weekend. Weak high pressure remains draped across the Gulf and western Atlantic through the weekend and into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected each afternoon with above-normal temperatures. Moderate to Major HeatRisk remains the predominant threat through this timeframe with the East Coast of Florida having the highest probability (60-70% chance) of reaching the Major HeatRisk category. Showers and storms will generally be diurnally driven by the sea breeze each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Storms continue to develop along the West Coast sea breeze and near Lake Okeechobee this evening. Temporary reductions in visibility/ceilings are possible near storms with VFR conditions prevailing elsewhere. Expect onshore winds around 10 knots to become light and variable after sunset. An early start to convection is possible tomorrow by 11-13Z for the East Coast metro area with storms firing along the sea breeze in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 349 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

High pressure prevails over the local waters. Light south-southeast winds persist across the Atlantic, while south-southwest winds develop each afternoons across the Gulf waters with the development of the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms should generally remain over the land, but a few storms may drift offshore in the evening and could produce locally hazardous winds and seas. Seas are generally expected to remain 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 20 West Kendall 76 93 78 93 / 10 30 10 30 Opa-Locka 78 93 80 94 / 10 20 10 20 Homestead 78 91 80 92 / 20 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 82 92 / 10 20 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 81 91 / 10 30 10 20 Pembroke Pines 79 94 81 95 / 10 20 10 20 West Palm Beach 78 91 80 92 / 10 30 10 30 Boca Raton 79 91 81 91 / 10 30 10 30 Naples 78 92 77 93 / 30 40 40 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.