textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 710 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026 - Warm and dry conditions will persist across the region through today, though isolated showers will be likely along the Gulf Breeze this afternoon.

- A cold front will be entering the region Sunday, bringing increased rain chances and hazardous marine conditions.

- Patchy fog could develop across inland South Florida early this morning, resulting in lower visibilities.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Conditions will remain generally unchanged through the weekend as ridging remains established over the Gulf waters and the western Atlantic region. However, a gradual pattern change will begin to take hold across the continental US during the period, which could result in unsettled weather for South Florida early next week.

Aloft, an upper-level trough will begin to dig across the Plains and the Eastern Seaboard today, gradually eroding the ridge over the Gulf and weakening the surface high. Concurrently, an attendant surface low associated with the aforementioned upper-level trough will develop and move across the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front south towards the Florida peninsula by Sunday morning. This gradual process will allow for moisture to continue filtering back into the region, with modeled PWATs surging back to near normal values for this time of the year (1.1-1.3 inches). This could allow for some isolated rainshowers to develop each afternoon (PoPs in the 15-20% range). Chances on Saturday will be mostly constrained to southwest Florida where the Gulf breeze pushes in, but chances on Sunday could be more widespread as the front slowly slides south along the peninsula.

Additionally, this gradual moistening, along with very light and variable winds early this morning, could lead to some patchy fog developing across inland FL. HREF and SREF show a low-end (20- 40%)chance for fog to develop over the interior between 4 - 9 AM today. This could result in reduced visibilities.

With generally easterly winds prevailing near the surface and persistent subsidence, temperatures will continue to warm up as we head into the weekend. Highs today and on Sunday will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s over the southwest and interior FL, while they'll most likely cap out in the low to mid 80s along the East Coast. Lows each day will drop into the 60s across the interior and low 70s along the coasts.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Most model guidance shows the aforementioned cold front dropping along the peninsula between Monday-Tuesday and stalling out over the Florida Straits during the latter half of the week. The frontal passage will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity to the area starting Monday morning and continuing overnight into early Tuesday morning. Guidance suggests rainfall accumulations up to an inch could be possible with this frontal passage. Conditions could cool back down to more seasonable temperatures once the front moves across the area, with highs next week in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows each midnight could dip into the 50s across the interior, and down to the 60s along the coasts.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards the middle and back half of the week. Most of the guidance shows an upper level shortwave developing on the back of the aforementioned trough, right over the southeastern US. This shortwave would then drop across the Gulf waters and reach the FL peninsula sometime Thursday into Friday. With the stalled frontal boundary over the FL Straits and this additional forcing mechanism in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms could increase once again. However, some of the GEFS ensemble members also show a surface low developing over the Gulf in tandem with the shortwave, moving east or south and approaching the peninsula. Previous model runs had the low moving across South FL on Thursday, but tonight's runs show it moving southward towards Cuba. This solution could bring higher rainfall totals across the region during the period (up to 3-4 inches of rain over a 48 hour period). While still generally unlikely (and supported only by a minority of the model ensembles), this solution, and the entirety of the forecast for the end of the week, will need to be monitored for any changes or increasing confidence. The NBM mostly supports a drier solution for the area. So for now, we're keeping low-end PoPs and QPFs in the forecast for the latter half of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 710 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Generally light and variable winds esrly this morning become easterly southeasterly up to 10-15 kts this afternoon, except at KAPF where a Gulf breeze will develop.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A moderate breeze will prevail across the local Atlantic waters as high pressure remains in place over the region. Lighter winds will set up over the Gulf waters. Seas will remain in the 2-4 ft across the Atlantic and remain 2 feet or less in the Gulf. Another period of breezy, hazardous conditions could approach early next week with the passage of a cold front, with winds 20-25 kts and gusts up to 30 kts across the Atlantic and Gulf waters, and seas building up to 12 ft along the Gulf stream.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 85 72 87 72 / 10 0 20 10 West Kendall 87 69 89 68 / 10 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 87 72 88 72 / 10 0 20 10 Homestead 85 72 87 70 / 10 0 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 72 85 72 / 10 0 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 20 20 Pembroke Pines 88 74 90 73 / 10 0 20 10 West Palm Beach 84 71 86 72 / 0 0 20 20 Boca Raton 84 72 85 72 / 0 0 20 20 Naples 87 71 85 69 / 0 10 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.