textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again today through the early evening hours. The stronger thunderstorms could contain gusty winds and frequent lightning. - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow moving storms creates the potential for localized flooding especially over the urban and poor drainage areas. - High temperatures may remain slightly cooler, but still in the upper 80s to low 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

We remain in a fairly fixed and unchanged weather regime compared to yesterday with a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley acting as a blocking mechanism and refraining overall storm tracks well to our north. Satellite and mesoanalysis data continue to show an upper-level low/TUTT churning just north of the Bahamas with a vort max positioned directly over our region. Plenty of moisture remains in place as a result of this nearby disturbance with ensemble forecasts showing regional PWAT values within the 2.2-2.5" range, representing the upper echelon (>90th percentile) of climatological norms for this time of year. A relatively weak flow pattern will continue to be observed as we find ourselves lodged between a pair of sfc ridges over the central Gulf coast and just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic United States with no real sfc gradients to take note of. Our sfc flow will therefore be mainly sea breeze-driven today with light onshore winds expected along each coast. Given the highly saturated atmosphere and forcing aloft with the aforementioned TUTT, showers and thunderstorms that have mainly resided over the local waters this morning should gradually overspread mainland South Florida during the afternoon and early evening hours, favoring the interior (PoPs of 70-80%) with the converging sea breezes. Neighborhood probabilities of 20-30% for rainfall rates exceeding 1"/hr and overall slow storm motion (high- res models suggesting bulk 0-6km shear to be below 10 kts) will have to be considered for the potential for urban flooding particularly across our eastern metros. In addition to these heavy downpours, frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds within the vicinity of these thunderstorms will be the supplementary hazards.

Models are insisting on the intrusion of some drier air from the south tomorrow, which is being reflected not only in our grids as slightly lower PoPs (60-70%) but also in our HREF guidance showing an overall reduction in PWATs (2.0-2.2"). LPMM composite reflectivity thus demonstrates a rightful output in showing showers and thunderstorms not being as widespread in coverage as today. Nonetheless, these aforementioned PWATs are still forecast to be well above our climatological norms (between the 70-90th percentiles) which, in addition to the persisting presence of the TUTT-like feature around our peninsula providing the requisite forcing aloft, should result in yet another active convective day. Daytime convection should be mainly favoring the interior as our winds will turn more southerly with a modest south and westward shift in our subtropical ridge.

It will remain seasonably hot across our region, with highs forecast to reach the low to mid 90s both today and tomorrow coupled with max apparent temperatures of 100-105 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 415 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Long range forecast philosophy remains consistent with a wet and convective weather pattern in place. The W Atl ridge axis pushes south and moves closer to, or even over SoFlo, basically reducing winds to a light sout-southwest flow. Periods of calm winds are also possible even during the afternoon hours, with sea breeze boundaries becoming the focal point for deeper convection.

NBM and long-range guidance remain very aggressive with POPs across the area, with max values in the 80-90% range through the weekend, and still lingering the 70-80% range early next week. PWATs, dew points, rainfall estimates all remain above or well above seasonal normals through the long term. Best chances for strong convection will happen along the East coast sea breeze around the Atlantic metro areas early in the afternoon, then pushing inland during the late afternoon hours. In addition, outflow boundary interactions may spark late afternoon/evening storms over the metro areas at times. Hazards will include gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably hot each day, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows should remain in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Light and variable winds to persist overnight along with scattered showers in the vicinity of all eastern terminals, maintaining VFR conditions. Into the early afternoon, wind flow regime will shift S/SE for eastern terminals. For APF, light and variable winds forecast overnight until the Gulf Breeze kicks in the early afternoon. As typical summertime afternoon convection begins, VCTS is introduced into the early afternoon across all TAF sites.

MARINE

Issued at 415 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A gentle to moderate east southeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters through the weekend. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become more south southwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each day. Gusty and erratic winds, along with brief periods of rough seas, will be possible in and around thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 91 81 90 81 / 40 50 70 30 West Kendall 91 79 90 78 / 50 50 70 20 Opa-Locka 92 81 91 79 / 50 50 70 20 Homestead 92 79 91 80 / 40 50 70 40 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 90 81 / 40 50 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 91 80 / 50 50 70 20 Pembroke Pines 91 80 91 81 / 50 50 70 20 West Palm Beach 92 79 91 80 / 50 50 70 20 Boca Raton 90 80 90 79 / 50 60 70 30 Naples 90 77 91 77 / 50 20 80 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.