textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 729 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to focus in SW Florida today.

- Heat indices expected to rise into the low to mid 100s across southwestern Florida today.

- A more active pattern is expected late this week and into the weekend with likely increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

From a synoptic point of view, the anticyclone over the southern Gulf will remain dominant and mostly stagnant for the early week period. A deep trough is present over the western Atlantic waters and towards the central Atlantic with meridional flow occurring along the Atlantic coast. A mid-level trough traversing the Great Lakes region will attempt to break down the ridge over the southeastern U.S. and southern Gulf, and may result in a couple of vorticity maxima streaming from north to south across the South Florida region. These vorticity impulses along with the daily mesoscale processes (primarily sea breeze development but also outflow boundaries) will be enough to spark some scattered showers, mainly for the interior and towards the Gulf coast as the Gulf breeze gets pinned closer to the coast and the Atlantic breeze moves inland. Looking at latest ACARS soundings and other model soundings, dry air in the mid levels will inhibit convective growth today but deeper moisture will return throughout the atmospheric column by Tuesday and lead to increased coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms again mainly for Gulf coast and interior locations as the easterly flow regime remains intact. In addition, because of the dry air today very few thunderstorms should form.

High temperatures today are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s for the east coast and the low to mid 90s for the Gulf coast. Maximum heat index values for the Gulf coast and interior locations may approach 105-107F for a short period this afternoon, but should still remain below advisory levels. For tomorrow, highs across all of South Florida will range from the upper 80s to the low 90s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Not much change overall in the long term forecast as a large scale ridge pattern remains in control of the local weather through mid- week. As a mid-level trough advects from the Great Lakes through the eastern U.S. and begins to break down the upper level ridge, surface high pressure will still reside over the area. The main change going into the end of the week and this weekend is with guidance showing an area of low pressure forming in the southern to central Gulf with deep moisture advection occurring in tandem with the low's circulation. The separate ensemble suites of the long range models have come into better agreement now regarding this feature's evolution, although there is still some level of variance given that it is still 4-5 days out. The general conclusion is that low-level flow would be expected to veer more out of a southerly/southeasterly direction, which would likely lead to a setup with widespread rain showers and thunderstorms while also being almost evenly distributed across the region. Highest PoPs under a southerly/southeasterly regime will still favor interior areas, but coastal areas won't be drastically different. Currently from Thursday this week and into the weekend, PoPs range from 60-80% across the entire South Florida region.

Any rainfall accumulation potential is highly uncertain at this time, but will be communicated as QPF forecasts become more clear which is highly dependent on the strength and track of any low pressure center. Overall, the forecast is definitely trending on the wetter side of things from Thursday and beyond.

With increasing rainfall chances and expected cloud cover, high temperatures may be capped a few degrees lower than in recent days. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s for most of the region to around 90 degrees for interior portions of South Florida.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period with generally easterly flow in place, except at KAPF where a Gulf breeze will develop. There's a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the interior this afternoon, well inland of the East Coast sites, with some potential impacts for KAPF.

MARINE

Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue across the local waters early this week, with winds becoming westerly to west- southwest in the afternoon for the nearshore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be more limited again today, but this coverage is expected to increase as the week progresses into the mid to late week period. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less for all local waters over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 90 77 89 77 / 10 10 20 20 West Kendall 91 76 90 76 / 20 10 30 20 Opa-Locka 91 77 90 77 / 10 10 20 20 Homestead 89 78 89 78 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 88 78 88 78 / 10 10 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 88 78 87 78 / 10 10 10 30 Pembroke Pines 92 79 91 79 / 10 10 20 20 West Palm Beach 89 78 88 78 / 0 10 20 30 Boca Raton 88 79 88 79 / 0 10 20 30 Naples 92 76 91 76 / 10 50 40 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.