textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 720 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of South Florida.

- Heat remains the primary hazard through next weekend.

- Greatest rain chances for all of south Florida on Thursday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Deep layer ridging will prevail across the Deep South and Florida over the next several days. The periodic amplification of the eastern CONUS trough will play a role in the position of the ridge axis which will have implications for low-level flow patterns and temperature forecasts.

Over the next few days, global ensembles generally agree that while the core of the northern stream will remain mostly north of the CONUS, weak shortwaves will advect southeast through the Plains and Midwest. These waves will result in a slight amplification to the eastern CONUS trough Wed. into Thurs. This will push the ridge axis from over Florida into the Gulf.

By the end of the week, the combination of a shortwave moving into the western CONUS and another moving through the Northeast will sharply amplify the ridge across then central and southern CONUS, including the Deep South and Florida. While there is quite a bit of disagreement in the ensembles regarding the timing and intensity of the Northeast shortwave, the general pattern across our region remains similar regardless.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The aforementioned ridge, which ranks near the top end of climo for this time of year, will also result in deep layer temperatures well above normal. And while PWATs are generally lower than climatology due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer, the low-level seabreeze flow will result in relatively high dewpoints along the coasts. Though it will be drier across the interior, actual temperatures will be higher without the 'relief' of a seabreeze. This all means that we're likely to reach heat advisory criteria (> 105-108) across all of south Florida, either due to higher humidity or higher temperatures.

The westward advection of the ridge axis and west/south shift of the SAL may result in actual and apparent temperatures a few degrees cooler on Wednesday, though we may still flirt with heat advisory conditions at least for a few areas across south Florida.

As far as rain chances are concerned, the background easterly flow will result in showers/storms being most likely across the interior in the afternoon, shifting towards the west coast in the evening. Though this pattern is expected, the SAL will likely act to reduce coverage and intensity across all of South Florida both afternoons.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Thursday will probably be the 'coolest' and 'wettest' of the period as the ridge axis will be furthest west and will be awaiting the northern stream shortwave to begin the amplification of the ridge pattern. It'll still be hot, with highs generally in the middle 90s and heat indices nearing advisory levels, though there will probably be fewer upper 90 degree readings. With at least some component of northerly flow expected on Thursday, we'll likely see the breezes pinned closer to the coast. However, we'll also be more likely to see storms advect into the region from central Florida late in the day. Overall, coverage is expected to be highest on Thursday. The end of the week and into the weekend will feature the presence of the SAL once again and anomalous heights. Essentially another period of warmer and drier than normal conditions are expected.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 723 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR expected to prevail at all terminals during the next 24 hours. L/V flow will shift to the ESE around 10kt after 15-016Z, except for a westerly wind at APF with afternoon Gulf breezes. L/V flow returns this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light winds and low seas are expected through the week. Daily wind increases to around 10 knots are expected in the seabreeze zone, as well as a light chop. Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain fairly isolated and mostly limited to the morning hours for the east coast and the evening for the Gulf.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 93 79 93 80 / 10 0 40 10 West Kendall 93 77 93 76 / 10 0 50 10 Opa-Locka 93 79 94 79 / 10 0 40 10 Homestead 93 79 93 79 / 0 0 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 81 92 80 / 10 0 40 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 80 93 80 / 10 0 50 10 Pembroke Pines 92 80 93 79 / 10 0 50 10 West Palm Beach 93 78 94 78 / 10 0 50 0 Boca Raton 91 79 92 79 / 10 0 50 10 Naples 93 78 91 79 / 10 20 30 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.