textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Breezy conditions along the east coast on Sunday

- Scattered showers and an isolated storm or two unlikely to make much of a drought impact Sunday night into Monday.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

A narrow, low amplitude upper ridge will move across the eastern Gulf and the state of Florida through the weekend ahead of our next frontal system. At the surface we'll sit between a departing ridge and approaching low which will result in flow veering from easterly today, to south/southeasterly on Sunday. Stray showers will likely exist across the Gulf Stream, and could drift into coastal areas, but are expected to be extremely isolated and short-lived. So, in general, rainfall is not expected over the weekend. Highs and lows will be near, to a couple degrees above normal both today and tomorrow. The gradient between the departing surface ridge and the approaching low pressure system will result in an uptick in wind speeds on Sunday. Gusts will be highest along the east coast and generally around 20 to 25 mph, an occasional gust 25-30 mph cannot be ruled out along the Broward and Palm Beach coasts.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

A shortwave and associated surface frontal system will move through the Southeast Sunday night through Monday. Pre-frontal convection may coincide with a period of heightened wind shear and modest instability, however a focused low-level forcing mechanism may not be in place. This will likely mean the most organized convection will remain offshore across the Gulf and Atlantic waters and could feature a few strong thunderstorms overnight on Sunday. The best shear and instability will quickly depart the region ahead of the actual frontal passage on Monday. Widespread rain across land areas is not expected, instead scattered showers and an isolated storm will result in rain amounts generally less than a quarter of an inch. Not much (if any) drought relief is expected.

Behind the front, above normal temperatures are expected as deep layer ridging builds back overhead. This could even result in some record highs mid to late week as temps climb into the upper 80s. No rain is expected after frontal passage on Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Generally VFR save for some patchy ground fog this morning. Prevailing easterly winds starting mid-morning becoming southeasterly tonight into Sunday morning. A period of onshore winds is also expected near APF later this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will prevail today, before turning southerly and becoming fresh on Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary across coastal and offshore waters adjacent to Palm Beach county on Sunday. Rain is not expected through the weekend, though showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into Monday associated with a frontal passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 78 67 78 68 / 0 0 10 30 West Kendall 80 63 81 64 / 0 0 10 30 Opa-Locka 79 66 80 67 / 0 0 10 40 Homestead 79 66 79 67 / 0 0 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 76 67 77 68 / 0 0 10 40 N Ft Lauderdale 77 67 78 68 / 0 0 10 50 Pembroke Pines 79 66 80 67 / 0 0 10 40 West Palm Beach 77 66 78 66 / 0 10 10 50 Boca Raton 78 66 79 66 / 0 10 10 50 Naples 79 61 78 64 / 0 0 10 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.