textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 415 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Above average temperatures return today and will continue through the weekend. Probabilities of heat-related impacts across urban areas during this time frame continue to increase.

- There is a moderate risk of rip currents for all beaches of Palm Beach county.

- Next chance for rain arrives this weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the region.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 415 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Forecast remains on track this afternoon as mid/upper-level ridging continues to gradually shift eastward into the Atlantic, with the ridge axis now positioned across the Florida peninsula. Latest guidance remains in good agreement in maintaining an overall dry pattern through the near term across South Florida. Consistent with this, the 18Z MFL upper-air sounding depicts dry air and subsidence aloft contributing to a temperature inversion near 750 mb, effectively limiting vertical cloud development and any significant shower activity across the region.

The primary weather concern this week continues to be the ongoing warming trend across the region, with afternoon high temperatures expected to steadily climb towards the weekend. Persistent ridging aloft combined with surface high pressure over the Atlantic will maintain southeasterly flow and continued warm air advection across the region, allowing temperatures to continue to rise above normal levels. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk suggests an increased likelihood of Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4), particularly along the East Coast metro on Saturday, with probabilities in the 70- 90% range. Residents and visitors should take necessary precautions, including ensuring adequate access to cooling and hydration, and continue to monitor the latest forecast updates through the remainder of the week.

Low temperatures tonight are expected to remain in the mid 70s at coastal locations and upper 60s across interior areas. High temperatures tomorrow (Thursday) should reach the low 90s across much of South Florida, and even the mid-90s around the Lake Region.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1229 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

The aforementioned 500mb ridge persists across South Florida to open the long term period and the most noticeable impact will be felt on afternoon high temperatures. Highs across the region are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s with the exception of ocean cooled coastal areas which will max out in the mid to upper 80s. While the mixing down of drier air to the surface will keep apparent temperature and ambient temperature differences lower in separation compared to our standard summer heat, apparent temperatures values in the upper 90s to low 100s are still possible. NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk depicts a 50-70% probability of Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4) on Friday across the east coast metro and increasing to 70-80% on Saturday, Sunday and Monday with some pockets of extreme HeatRisk along the east coast cannot be ruled out. While these probabilistic values may fluctuate as we remain several days out in time, major to extreme HeatRisk can be impactful to anyone without adequate cooling/hydration. Be sure to keep up with the latest forecast updates over the next several days.

Aside from the heat, an upper level trough will propagate eastward across the Great Lakes region at the end of the work-week as a developing surface low drags its attendant boundary towards the Florida peninsula. This feature will likely remain just north of our forecast area but could still lead to a slight increase in POPs for Saturday and Sunday as a plume of moisture makes its way northward across the area. At this time, POPs remain around 20-30% Saturday and Sunday and a slight increase to 40-50% on Monday on Tuesday as the boundary sags South. Holding steady for now as it's a bit too early to nail down too many details, as it will all be dependent on the exact progression of the front.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR expected to continue during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Light to moderate easterly winds will persist through the rest of today, except for a Gulf breeze at APF this afternoon. Winds will again become light and variable tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 1229 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Generally benign marine conditions today with east-southeast winds prevailing across local Atlantic waters. Across local Gulf waters, winds will be east-southeast during the morning hours, but flip to a more west-southwest during the afternoon hours. Wave heights remain 1-3 feet over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 71 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 74 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 89 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 73 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 75 94 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 91 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 74 90 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 73 89 73 90 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.