textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 805 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches for much of the work week. - Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Biscayne Bay & Atlantic waters over the next several days.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Current forecast remains on track as a few low-topped showers move onshore the east coast in the moderate easterly wind flow this morning. Expect this general pattern to continue through about midday, with the focus for any showers shifting to the interior and eventually Gulf coast this afternoon. The REFS guidance suggests a weak Gulf seabreeze could set up right along the coast after 3 PM which could act to enhance showers and maybe a thunderstorm. The overall pressure gradient should be strong enough to preclude a Gulf seabreeze, so for now we're continuing the 30% PoPs for interior and Gulf coast this afternoon and not mentioning thunder due to a general lack of instability and deep moisture.

Temperature and wind forecasts look on track for today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

05z RTMA & ACARS data this morning indicate that the axis of mid- level ridging is now located directly over South Florida with a substantial layer of dry air in the vertical column above 600mb and an easily identifiable subsidence inversion on the 00z MFL sounding earlier tonight. A continued tight pressure gradient across the region has resulted in a continuation of breezy easterly flow and the advection of low-topped isolated to scattered showers briskly moving from east to west.Surface analysis of isobars indicates a continued strengthening of surface ridging across the region as pressure heights gradually increase and what is left of the decayed frontal boundary slides to the southwest of the region. Mesoscale models such as the HRRR, RRFS, and RAP all depict the continuation of low end rain chances across the region over the course of today even as the deeper atmospheric moisture slides west of the region today as the surface ridge continues to build in from the northeast. While mesoscale models don't depict a plethora of activity for the remainder of today, it would be wise to not bet against a strong easterly breeze over the instability laden waters of the nearby Gulfstream to produce additional isolated to scattered shower activity. Blended the NAMdng and CONSShort models together to better account for rain chances (20-30%) with a foci of elevated rain chances along the immediate east coast for the remainder of the morning before the highest rain chances shift to the Gulf coast this afternoon and evening. Accumulations will remain fairly light today as the mid-level ridge overhead and dry air aloft acts to suppress any vertical height to convection.

Aloft, the axis of mid-level ridging will advect into the western Atlantic waters by Wednesday, gradually elongating and weakening in intensity as 500mb pressure heights gradually decrease during the day. At the surface, continued enhancement of surface ridging will advect a drier airmass into the region from the northeast resulting in a further reduction of rain chances during the day on Wednesday while the persistent easterly breeze remains the status quo. Still cannot rule out a few isolated showers given the mesoscale and topographical setup in this flow regime but rain chances will remain much lower than what we have seen over the past two days.

A temperature gradient will remain across the region both this afternoon and once again on Wednesday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the eastern half of the peninsula due to the cooling aspects of the ocean breeze and the western half of the peninsula peaking in the mid 80s. Overnight temperatures will be inverse as the ocean breeze will keep warm and muggy conditons along the east coast with low temps in the 70s whereas inland and western locales will see low temperatures dip into the widespread 60s, even low 60s across cool spots across inland southwestern Florida.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A persistent easterly breeze will remain the norm throughout the extended period as South Florida remains on the periphery of an expansive area of high pressure situated across the majority of the western Atlantic. Upstream, amplified mid-level troughing will develop across the central United States and advect eastward on Thursday into much of the southeastern United States. Interestingly, a assortment of deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues to depict this lobe of vorticity slowing across the northern Gulf during the second half of the week and undergoing a messy evolution (multiple mid-level impulses congealing?) into a cut-off low which is then forecast to slowly transit across the region late this week into the upcoming weekend. The latest deterministic and ensemble GFS shows a more defined feature transiting directly overhead whereas the European model guidance has a less defined feature and a more southern trajectory during the upcoming weekend. It appears a more active synoptic pattern may evolve late in the week into the upcoming weekend as the combination of synoptic enhancement aloft and increasing moisture advection at the surface from the east could increase rain chances during this time frame.

High temperatures for the remainder of the week will be on a slow moderating trend with lower 80s anticipated along the east coast and mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida each afternoon. Temperatures this weekend will largely depend on the evolution of the cut-off low and subsequent rain chances. With the easterly breeze eventually lessening in strength during the upcoming weekend into early next week , the temperature gradient across the region will become far less defined as time progresses onward.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 805 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Occasional MVFR associated with brief SHRA at FLL-MIA area terminals through at least 14z, and this period may extend a bit later in the day. This same pattern shifts to the interior peninsula and KAPF from 20z-01z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with TSRA chances too low to mention. Wind 080-090 degrees increasing to 12-14 knots with gusts near 20 knots for most of the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters through much of this week mainly due to a persistent strong easterly breeze. Winds may decrease below Small Craft criteria at times across the Atlantic waters although resurgence in wind speeds back to criteria level remains in the forecast at this time. Seas across the Atlantic waters will mainly remain in the 4-6 ft range for the remainder of the work week with wave heights forecast to remain in the 2-4 ft range across the local Gulf waters. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue across our local Atlantic waters for much of the work week.

BEACHES

Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the work week as strong onshore winds persist. Always swim at a guarded beach and when in doubt, don't venture out!

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 70 81 71 / 20 20 10 20 West Kendall 82 65 83 67 / 20 10 10 20 Opa-Locka 82 69 82 70 / 20 20 10 20 Homestead 82 70 81 71 / 20 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 70 79 71 / 30 20 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 79 70 79 71 / 30 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 82 70 83 71 / 20 20 10 20 West Palm Beach 80 68 80 70 / 20 20 20 30 Boca Raton 79 69 80 70 / 30 20 10 30 Naples 85 66 86 67 / 30 20 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ630-650- 651-670-671.

GM...None.