textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches through at least Saturday.

- Scattered thunderstorms over interior and SW Florida this afternoon. A few of these storms could produce strong, gusty wind and hail. - A moderate to strong easterly breeze may bring periods of hazardous conditions to the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters through the end of the work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1240 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon across the east coast metro should shift to the interior and SW FL as the afternoon progresses with the surface trough continuing to move to the west across the peninsula. Surface CAPE is about 2500 J/kg over the interior where there has been more sunshine today, and low level lapse rates in SW FL are 7-8 C/km. 500 mb temps according to latest RSW ACARS sounding is -10 to -12C. With decent instability in place, a few stronger storms remain possible late this afternoon into early evening across SW FL. Strong gusty winds will be the primary threat, although hail can't be completely ruled out.

Only other changes to the near term forecast was the high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches was extended out through Saturday, and the Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters was extended through 12Z Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Latest analysis depicts the axis of mid-level ridging starting to slowly degrade and push more into the western Atlantic for the end of this week as strong troughing forms in the Midwest region of the country. Similarly, an area of low pressure at the 500mb height level is expected to travel northwards across South Florida and into Central Florida before diffusing. Steady moisture advection will occur with this, (PWATs maintaining between 1.3-1.5 inches) although generally below the 850mb height level. Overall, the presence of a mid-level low and adequate moisture content will be enough to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning later this morning and through the rest of the day. The predominant flow will be easterly, and this along with the Atlantic sea breeze development will both help push most of the activity towards the Gulf coast for the second half of the day today.

Taking a look at how strong convection could become today, it is noted that 500mb height temperatures are forecast to be near the coldest for this time of year (between the 10th and 25th percentile for the date) at -11 to -13 deg C. These colder values aloft will act to steepen low-level and mid-level lapse rates, which can help overcome some of the more stable dry air aloft above the 800-700mb level. Because of the dry air aloft, hi-res model soundings for Thursday afternoon depict marginal instability with an inverted V type setup as copious amounts of dry air will remain present. While morning activity is forecast to concentrate along the immediate east coast of South Florida, a non-zero conditional threat of marginal severe hail and isolated strong to severe wind gusts will exist on Thursday afternoon near Lake Okeechobee and southwestern Florida as the easterly breeze pushes convective activity westward and daytime heating and instability becomes maximized. All in all, cannot rule out a couple of strong cores developing that produce severe winds or hail, although the risk will be less than 5% across the area and therefore no severe risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center.

As we move into Friday, the mid-level impulse will be continuing to advect northwards into northern Florida and thus conditions should stabilize more as South Florida will still remain underneath the strong surface high circulation over the western Atlantic. The high pressure circulation and the lack of a forcing mechanism other than the sea breezes is expected to lead to a much less activity day on Friday. However, given sea breeze development there will still be low end chances for isolated showers across the region. High temperatures for the next couple of days will be in the 80s with the hotter temperatures being felt across the Gulf coast areas in this easterly wind regime.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The expansive surface high across the western Atlantic will remain in firm control at the surface as the persistent moderate easterly breeze continues into Saturday. Guidance continues to highlight the infiltration of some drier air ahead of a frontal boundary approaching the Southeast states, which will result in a reduction of rain chances both days. The instability laden waters of the Gulf stream will result in a maxima of shower activity over the Atlantic waters and east coast of South Florida each night before diurnal activity focuses across inland and western half of South Florida. Although temperatures will remain cooler aloft, the drier air at the surface may result in rain chances remaining in the 20-30% range through the weekend.

Guidance depicts a low over the Caribbean lifting northwards across the western Atlantic waters and northwestern Bahamas starting on Sunday and into early next week. 500mb flow over South Florida is forecast to veer out of a northerly direction on the western side of this feature as 500mb temperatures also begin to rebound/increase. With the previously mentioned frontal boundary washing out early next week, moisture will settle and pool across the area with potential for a surface low to develop nearby and provide some extra forcing with the diurnal sea breeze circulations. As a result, rain chances will begin rise again for early next week back to 30-40% for Monday and potentially 50-60% or higher for the middle of next week. However, uncertainty remains high for the end of the forecast period.

High temperatures each day are expected in the low to mid 80s for most areas each day through Monday. By Tuesday next week, temperatures may fall back into the upper 70s as the front stalls and rain cooled air occurs.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

SCT showers and thunderstorms will shift in coverage to the interior and SW FL as the afternoon progresses. ESE winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. Prevailing MVFR ceilings expected with brief IFR possible during periods of heavy rain.

MARINE

Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A fresh to strong easterly breeze will continue across the Atlantic waters for the end of this week and the first half of the upcoming weekend. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Atlantic waters beginning this afternoon and continuing into the weekend as sustained winds are expected to reach 20-25 kts during that time frame. Seas across the Atlantic waters will mainly be in the 4-6 ft range for the next few days with wave heights forecast to remain in the 2-3 ft range across the local Gulf waters. Further elevated winds and waves will be possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity, particularly today.

BEACHES

Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The risk for dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the work week as strong onshore winds persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 82 72 82 / 10 10 10 20 West Kendall 68 84 68 84 / 10 10 10 20 Opa-Locka 71 84 71 84 / 10 10 10 20 Homestead 72 82 71 82 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 72 80 72 80 / 10 10 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 71 81 72 81 / 10 10 10 20 Pembroke Pines 72 84 72 84 / 10 10 10 20 West Palm Beach 71 81 71 81 / 10 10 10 20 Boca Raton 71 81 71 81 / 10 10 10 20 Naples 68 87 67 87 / 20 20 0 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.