textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 223 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026 - Warm temperatures will continue through the end of the week as high pressure builds back into the region.

- The next frontal boundary will approach and push into the region over the weekend increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Gusty easterly winds are also anticipated across South Florida on Sunday.

- Hazardous marine conditions will be possible across all local waters towards the second half of the weekend and into early next week as winds and seas build.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A strong and expansive mid level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and the Southern Plains will gradually expand eastward over the Gulf and towards the Florida Peninsula today and Friday. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will extend southwestward towards South Florida and into the Gulf during this time frame. This will allow for plenty of subsidence to take place as drier air pushes into the region especially across the mid to upper levels. This set up will allow for a light to moderate easterly wind flow to develop and remain in place through the end of the week. During the late morning and afternoon hours, the sea breezes will develop and push inland with the Atlantic sea breeze dominating due to the easterly synoptic wind flow. This could provide just enough lift and instability to spark off a few showers each afternoon mainly over the interior sections as well as Southwest Florida where the sea breezes collide. Chances of thunderstorms will remain very limited through the end of the week due to plenty of subsidence bringing dry air to the mid to upper levels as ridging continues to build over the area. High temperatures today and Friday will generally range from the lower 80s along the east coast to the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida.

While shower activity will diminish late tonight, there will still be enough lower level moisture in place combined with light winds and mainly clear skies to support the potential for areas of fog to develop overnight into early Friday morning. Some of the fog could become locally dense especially across interior portions of Southwest Florida reducing visibility to a quarter of a mile or less. Low temperatures tonight will generally drop into the upper 50s across interior portions of Southwest Florida, while low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s will be common elsewhere. The only exception to this will be across the east coast metro areas where temperatures will drop into the upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The weather pattern begins to change over the upcoming weekend as an amplifying mid level trough digs southeastward across most of the Eastern Seaboard Friday night into Saturday and then off into the Atlantic later on Saturday and into early Sunday. While the trough axis will push off to the north of the region, it will flatten the east side of the ridge a bit on Saturday before it slowly tries to build back over the region as Sunday progresses. At the surface, this will allow for a weakening frontal boundary over the western Atlantic to extend southwestward towards Northern and Central Florida on Saturday before pushing through South Florida as Sunday progresses. While the exact details still need to be worked out, the latest guidance suite is coming into better agreement that the front will be close enough to the region to increase the chances of showers on Saturday afternoon. The best chances of showers from this frontal boundary look to be on Saturday night into Sunday as it crosses through the region. While this set up does not look very favorable for strong thunderstorm development with the best dynamics and instability remaining up to the northeast, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along and ahead of the front beginning on Saturday afternoon and lasting through Sunday.

The bigger uncertainty is with the potential for heavy downpours and training of showers due to the possibility of a coastal convergence situation setting up. Behind the front, a very strong area of high pressure that will be building into the region will create a very tight pressure gradient across South Florida heading into Sunday. This will create a strong east northeasterly wind flow across the region with gusty conditions in place throughout the day. While the exact details still remain uncertain, the ingredients are present to have the potential for multiple rounds of showers to set up over a portion of the east coast which could lead to localized flooding in some areas. Currently, confidence remains low on where the heaviest rainfall could set up but the potential does remain in place for some areas to see an inch or more somewhere along the east coast during the second half of the weekend. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Saturday will remain in the lower 80s along the east coast to the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida out ahead of the front. High temperatures on Sunday will be cooler as they will rise into the upper 70s along the east coast and into the lower 80s across Southwest Florida.

Heading into the early to middle portion of next week, mid level ridging becomes well established over the region during this time frame. At the surface, the frontal boundary is slow to move off to the south as it still remains over the area on Monday before finally pushing into the Florida Keys and Florida Straits heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow for the potential for showers to linger across the region on Monday before drier air tries to push back into the region heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. With strong high pressure centered off to the northeast in the western Atlantic, the pressure gradient will remain rather tight during the early portion of the week which will allow for the breezy and gusty east northeasterly wind flow to continue. High temperatures will be on a moderating trend during the early to middle portion of next week, and will be near climatological normals or just above towards the middle of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the east to around 10 kts after 15z across the east coast terminals. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WSW after 17z as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

In general, a gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the end of the week. These winds may become occasionally fresh at times across portions of the Atlantic waters. Across the Gulf waters, winds may shift and become northwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. A northeasterly swell across the northern Atlantic waters will gradually diminish today. This will allow for 3 to 5 foot seas early this morning across the Atlantic drop down to 2 to 4 feet later today into Friday. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the week. Hazardous marine conditions may develop across all local waters heading into the second half of the weekend and into early next week as east northeasterly winds increase and seas build.

BEACHES

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today as a northeasterly swell in the northern Atlantic waters gradually subsides. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the rest of the Atlantic coast beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 70 82 68 / 0 0 20 0 West Kendall 84 65 84 64 / 0 10 20 0 Opa-Locka 83 68 84 67 / 0 0 20 0 Homestead 82 69 83 67 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 80 69 81 68 / 0 10 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 70 81 68 / 0 10 20 0 Pembroke Pines 84 69 84 68 / 0 0 20 0 West Palm Beach 80 68 82 67 / 0 0 20 0 Boca Raton 80 69 82 67 / 0 10 20 0 Naples 84 65 85 66 / 10 10 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.