textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026 - A Cold Weather Advisory will go into effect tonight into early Monday morning across the Lake region as well as Southwest Florida with minimum apparent temperatures dropping in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

- Gusty northwest winds will rapidly develop across the region after the frontal passage which will result in hazardous marine conditions beginning this afternoon and persisting into the early portion of the week.

- Temperatures will slowly moderate across the region heading towards the middle of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

A mid level shortwave trough extending down into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Northern Gulf will rapidly slide eastward today across the Southeast as well as the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, the next cold front will push across Northern and Central Florida this morning before passing through South Florida during the afternoon hours. The latest global and ensemble guidance suite remains in good agreement with keeping the shortwave trough axis just off to the north as it passes through. This will allow for the front to be in a weakening state as it pushes through with the best dynamics and instability remaining further off to the north. As the front approaches and moves through the region, the latest CAMs and Hi-Res guidance shows a broken line of showers out ahead of it weakening as it moves from northwest to southeast this afternoon. More shower activity may develop over the Atlantic waters due to enhanced instability offshore. While thunderstorm chances will remain very low over the land areas, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out over the Atlantic waters as the day progresses where instability is higher. High temperatures out ahead of the front will climb up into the upper 70s and lower 80s across most areas.

Behind the front, northwesterly winds rapidly increase this afternoon through tonight and strong cold air advection takes place throughout this time frame. The latest HREF continues to show high probabilities (70 to 90 percent) of minimum apparent temperatures dropping below 35 degrees across portions of Southwest Florida as well as the Lake Okeechobee region tonight with the highest probabilities remaining across Glades, Hendry, and Inland Collier Counties. Minimum apparent temperatures in Glades and Hendry Counties could drop into the upper 20s late tonight into early Monday morning. Chilly temperatures will also make it into the east coast metro areas as minimum apparent temperatures drop into the mid to upper 40s across the region during this time frame. Something that we are still keeping a close eye on as well is the potential for freezing temperatures west of Lake Okeechobee early Monday morning. NBM and HREF probabilities still show a low chance (20-30%) of temperatures hitting the freezing mark in western Glades County early Monday morning. Probabilities are slightly lower (10-20%) in western Hendry County. If guidance continues to trend colder, a freeze watch may be needed for Glades and Hendry County for late tonight into early Monday morning. This will continue to be monitored as the day progresses.

As high pressure continues to build in from the northwest, dry conditions will remain in place and cold air advection will continue through most of the day on Monday as a north northwest wind slowly begins to veer later in the day towards the north northeast. High temperatures on Monday will only rise into the lower to mid 60s across most of Southwest Florida. These highs will be remain in the upper 60s across the east coast metro area struggling to reach 70 across most areas.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Strong surface high pressure to the northwest will gradually shift across the Southeast on Tuesday and then into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. At the same time, what is left of the frontal boundary will remain stalled out to the southeast over the Florida Straits. This will help to increase the pressure gradient across the region during this time frame as the winds veer and become more northeasterly heading into Tuesday and then east northeasterly on Wednesday. This will create a slow moderating trend in temperatures heading towards the middle of the week. While Tuesday will start out rather chilly across most areas, it will not be as chilly as the previous night. Low temperatures on Tuesday morning will generally range from the lower 40s west of Lake Okeechobee to the mid to upper 40s across the rest of Southwest Florida. Across the east coast metro areas, lows drop into the mid to upper 50s across most areas. By Tuesday afternoon high temperatures rise into the upper 60s west of Lake Okeechobee and into the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. Heading into the middle of the week, high temperatures on Wednesday are back in the mid to upper 70s across most of South Florida. While Tuesday will remain generally dry across most areas, some lower level moisture advection will take place on Wednesday as winds continue to veer which will slightly increase the chances of showers across the eastern half of the region during this time frame.

The uncertainty in the forecast rises for the second half of the week as another mid level shortwave approaches the region Thursday into Friday. At the surface, the latest guidance suite shows a weakening frontal boundary pushing closer to the region on Thursday before potentially stalling out over South Florida or just nearby heading into Friday. While the global and ensemble guidance still differ in regards to whether or not the front makes a pass through the region or stalls out, the guidance does remain in relatively good agreement with showing a good amount of moisture advection taking place during this time frame. This will help to increase the chances of showers during the second half of the week area wide. If the front were to push through the region, some drier air may filter into the area from the north on Friday, however, if it stalls out, showers may linger into Friday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for Thursday and Friday look to remain near or slightly above climatological normals for this time of year.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the SW after 15z this morning out ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible out ahead of the front as it pushes through this afternoon. Behind the front, winds will become NW and will rapidly increase and become gusty after 18z.

MARINE

Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

A cold front will approach and move through the local waters today bringing scattered showers to the region out ahead of the front. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible mainly across the Atlantic waters through the late afternoon hours. Behind the front, winds will rapidly increase out of the northwest and will range between 25 and 30 kts across the Gulf waters this afternoon into tonight and 20 to 25 kts over the Atlantic waters during this time frame. Seas across the Atlantic waters will build and range between 7 to 9 feet tonight into Monday while seas across the Gulf waters range between 5 and 8 feet during this time frame. Hazardous marine conditions may linger especially across the Atlantic waters through the early and middle portion of the week as winds and seas remain elevated.

BEACHES

Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will develop across the Gulf beaches later this afternoon into tonight as northwesterly wind flow increases. A moderate risk of rip currents will also persist across the Palm Beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 51 69 58 / 40 0 0 0 West Kendall 82 47 69 52 / 40 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 82 50 69 57 / 40 0 0 0 Homestead 82 51 69 57 / 40 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 82 49 69 59 / 40 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 82 49 69 58 / 40 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 82 48 69 55 / 40 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 81 47 68 57 / 30 0 0 0 Boca Raton 82 47 69 58 / 40 0 0 0 Naples 75 42 66 48 / 20 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ063-066-067-069-070.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Monday for GMZ656-657-676.