textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 222 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

- High risk of rip currents persists today for Palm Beach County beaches. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Broward and Miami Dade beaches.

- Above average temperatures return to the region mid to late this week. Probabilities of heat-related impacts across urban areas during this time frame continue to increase.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Models and sfc analyses continue to depict a ridge of high pressure dominating the west Atlantic, with its associated ridge axis stretching into northern Florida. The high pressure flattens a little today ahead of an advancing trough/front system over the midwest states, keeping SoFlo under a generally ENE moderate flow through the short term. Meanwhile, a decaying stationary boundary lingers over the Florida Keys, with a swath of enhanced moisture still draped over the area, enough for isolated showers to develop. Therefore, PoPs continue to carry low-end coverage (around 20%) for most Atlantic metro areas through the rest of this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out. With less rain and cloud coverage today, expect afternoon highs to reach the upper 80s over east and interior areas, and around 90 for the west coast.

By Wednesday, the decaying boundary over the Keys is expected to further break down and allow for drier air to filter into the area. Both global and ensemble families bring PoPs to near zero by Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions allowing for temperatures to climb into the low 90s across much of SoFlo.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

With the aforementioned frontal boundary sufficiently dissipated, high pressure will remain in control through the first half of the long term period. A 500mb ridge slides across the Gulf late Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to the beginning of another warming trend. 500mb temperatures could warm to near daily records between -4 to -5 C. A ridge of this strength aloft will also result in strong subsidence at the surface, which will hinder and suppress rain chances outside of low-capped cumulus afternoon cloud cover and a non-zero chance of a few isolated sprinkles along afternoon boundary collisions where ascent is maximized.

Beginning on Wednesday and persisting into the upcoming weekend, high temperatures across the region are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s with the exception of ocean cooled coastal areas which will max out in the mid to upper 80s. While the mixing down of drier air to the surface will keep apparent temperature and ambient temperature differences lower in separation compared to our standard summer heat, apparent temperatures values in the upper 90s to low 100s are still possible. NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk depicts a 50-70% probability of Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4) on Friday across the east coast metro and increasing to 70-80% on Saturday and Sunday. While these probabilistic values may fluctuate as we remain several days out in time, Major HeatRisk can be impactful to anyone without adequate cooling/hydration as well as health system and industries. Be sure to keep up with the latest forecast updates over the next several days.

An upper level trough will propagate eastward across the Great Lakes region at the end of the work-week as a developing surface low drags its attendant boundary towards the Florida peninsula. This feature will likely stall just north of our forecast area but could still lead to a slight increase in POPs for Saturday and Sunday as a plume of moisture makes its way northward across the area. At this time, POPs remain around 20-30% Saturday and Sunday. Holding steady for now as it's a bit too early to nail down too many details, as it will all be dependent on the progression of the next front.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR expected to continue at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Occasional cigs down to MVFR will be handled with tempos if necessary. Generally ENE winds around 10kt through 02-03Z, then L/V tonight. APF will experience a westerly Gulf breeze through around 00Z.

MARINE

Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Generally improving marine conditions today as east-southeast winds relax and wave heights decrease. Easterly winds around 10-12 kts prevails across local Atlantic waters with wave heights peaking between 3-5 feet. Across local Gulf waters, winds should flip from an easterly direction to a southwesterly direction during the afternoon. Wave heights will remain 1-2 feet.

BEACHES

Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

A high risk of rip currents continues for Palm Beach County beaches with a moderate risk for Broward and Miami Dade beaches. This threat is expected to gradually decrease by mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 89 74 91 / 10 0 0 0 West Kendall 70 90 71 92 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 73 90 74 92 / 10 0 0 0 Homestead 73 88 74 91 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 73 86 74 89 / 10 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 73 86 74 89 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 74 91 75 94 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 87 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 73 86 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 71 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.