textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 114 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026 - A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Hendry, Glades, and Inland Collier counties until 8am this morning as conditions are favorable for frost development.

- Enhanced fire weather conditions will continue for the next few days as relative humidity is forecast to drop into the 30-40% range each afternoon and the area remains in a severe to extreme drought.

- Reduced visibility is possible across portions of interior SW Florida near the National Fire, especially along Alligator Alley.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 114 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

RTMA analysis early this morning depicts the axis of elongated surface ridging now directly across South Florida & surrounding waters, with the bulk of reliable surface observations reporting calm winds. With surface winds decoupling as a nocturnal near- surface inversion develops in tandem with clear skies overhead, it is another chilly morning across the region with radiational cooling in full swing. Temperatures before and at daybreak are forecast to be favorable (mid 30s, even low 30s possible in a few sheltered spots) for frost across inland southwestern Florida this morning and a Frost Advisory remains in effect for Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier through 8am this morning. The other main forecast concern is the continuation of the actively burning National Fire (and several smaller hot spots) across the region at this hour. While cool overnight temperatures and light winds help stifle major fire expansion overnight, the settling of dense smoke close to the surface may result in reduced visibilities on roads in the vicinity and downstream of the fire. A Special Weather Statement has been issued until 8am this morning as reports have come in of reduced visibilities along Interstate 75 between mile marker 70 and 80. Temperatures by daybreak will be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday with values in the mid 30s across inland SW Florida, low to mid 40s across the Naples metro and temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s along the east coast.

The axis of the aforementioned stout surface ridging will slide eastward during the remainder of today, resulting in surface winds veering out of a light southerly direction by the mid to late morning hours. Differential heating between the land and ocean interface will result in an onshore wind component along both coasts and continue the gradual moderation of the airmass across the region. The southerly wind component may also loft smoke from the National Wildfire directly onto Interstate 75 (Alligator Alley) before the plume rises higher in the vertical column, although localized visibility concerns may remain with us for the remainder of today. The subtle wind shift to a southerly direction will usher in the beginning of warm air advection as mid-level flow veers to a westerly to southwesterly direction. The chill at daybreak will give way to a seasonable day across the region with high temperatures at all historical climate sites slightly below average for this time of year. Forecast high temperatures this afternoon will reach the 70s across the region during the afternoon hours with a few inland locales potentially reaching 80. The onshore wind component will also result in warmer temperatures overnight as wake up temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s along the east coast, mid to upper 50s across the Naples metro, and temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s across inland southwestern Florida.

Continued warm air advection, surface ridging hanging on, and clear skies will result in a return to the 80s (above average temperatures) across the region by Thursday afternoon. That is as remarkable of a temperature swing as one can get here in South Florida, spoken as a true South Florida native. Upper 80s this past weekend, 30s and 40s to start the work week, and a return to the 80s to finish the work week off. With increasing moisture, cloud cover will also make a return during the daytime, vertically capped as ample dry air remains aloft.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 114 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

A moisture resurgence is on the horizon as we enter the extended period as the orientation of surface wind flow and an approaching mid-level feature will usher in a higher level of atmospheric moisture into the region on Thursday night into Friday morning. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to depict a mid-level shortwave arriving across the southeastern United States during the day on Friday with an attendant surface frontal boundary and deeper envelope of moisture sliding southward into the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. The combination of southerly winds in the warm sector of the boundary to the north and increasing low level moisture will set the stage for above average temperatures on Friday across the region with a mentionable potential of 90s across inland areas of South Florida. The latest forecast continues to hold steady depicting a 20-40% across most of the region on Friday afternoon with the potential of an isolated thunderstorm or two over and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon hours. Select model soundings show marginal instability but a plethora of residual dry air in the vertical column on Friday afternoon, which may limit the thunderstorm potential.

The evolution of how ensemble guidance has been handling the progression of the mid-level shortwave over the past 24 hours has been rather interesting as the latest guidance (ECENS, GEFS, AI ECENS, AI GEFS) now shows the shortwave slowing in forward motion across the Florida Peninsula and weakening in strength before sliding to the east of the region on Monday. The progression and timing of the mid-level feature will have direct implications on the progression of the surface frontal boundary across the Florida Peninsula. As the forecast stands this morning, Saturday features the highest rain chances sitting in the ballpark of 40-60% across the region as precipitable water values increase into the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range.

As the frontal boundary becomes frontolytic in the vicinity of our region this upcoming weekend, the envelope of deeper moisture (relative to what we have experienced recently) will remain draped across the region. This will result in the potential of shower activity each afternoon through early next week as high and low temperatures remain above average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Light and variable winds continue this morning with dry and VFR conditions prevailing across the region. Winds will veer to a southerly direction by late this morning, veering and remaining SWrly at KAPF and SErly along the east coast of South Florida through the afternoon hours. After sunset, winds will once again become light and variable in nature.

MARINE

Issued at 114 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Marine conditions will continue to subside across the region through the remainder of the work week as winds veer to a southerly component across all of the local waters later today. Wave heights will decrease from 4-6 feet this morning in the Atlantic and 2-3 feet in the Gulf to 3-5 feet in the Atlantic and 1-2 feet in the Gulf by this afternoon. Locally elevated seas and waves are possible in any shower or thunderstorm activity that may occur late this week into the upcoming weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 114 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place at Palm Beach county beaches through Thursday evening as northeasterly swell continues.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

The combination of ample dry air and ongoing severe to extreme drought across South Florida will set the stage for yet another afternoon of fire weather concerns. Although relative humidity values will moderate compared to what was observed over the past two days, minimum values will still be close to critical levels (below 35%) across inland southwestern Florida. Winds will veer to a southerly direction and enhance slightly during the afternoon hours, veering onshore (SErly east coast, SWrly Gulf coast) during the afternoon hours.

The National Wildfire continues to burn in Big Cypress National Preserve this morning. The size of the wildfire may result in mesoscale changes to atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of the wildfire. During the overnight and daybreak hours, dense smoke may reduce visibilities downstream of the fire. During the late morning and afternoon hours, enhanced winds and lower relative humidity values may materialize near the fire due to air circulations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 62 79 69 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 75 56 82 64 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 75 60 81 67 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 75 61 81 68 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 73 62 79 68 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 73 62 79 68 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 76 60 82 67 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 75 57 80 67 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 75 60 80 67 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 73 55 80 64 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066-070.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.