textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 229 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Moderate coastal flooding is expected with each high tide cycle. Major coastal flooding is possible late this weekend into early next week. - Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is possible across the east coast metros Sunday through Monday.

- Strong winds, with gusts over 35 mph are possible Sunday through Monday.

- Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

With the axis of the mid-level trough over the eastern United States extending south across South Florida, the pattern will remain unsettled to kick off the weekend. Coastal showers with some embedded thunderstorms along a coastal convergence axis will remain one meteorological concern today into Saturday. While some drier air may help limit the heaviest rainfall to portions of South Florida closer to the Atlantic coast, the area remains fairly saturated from recent rainfall. The times of high tide will present significant drainage challenges along the coast.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

As the weekend progresses, the mid to upper level trough will settle deeper into the region as a low tries to develop at the surface to the east of the Bahamas. This will reinforce the northeasterly wind flow pattern which will in turn cause the potential for a strong wind field to develop over the Atlantic waters and potentially spread across the peninsula. Portions of the east coast could encounter wind gusts in excess of 25-30 mph on Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday which will need to be monitored in case a Wind Advisory were to become necessary.

As the mid level low develops, the increasing convective activity that may be enabled could be slow-moving in a moist environment. WPC keeps the east coast metro areas in a Slight risk for flash flooding from excessive rainfall on Sunday with a Marginal risk flanking the area on Saturday and Monday as of this afternoon. Precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches which runs in the realm of 75 to 99th percentile in the sounding climatology for late October in South Florida.

The mid-level low begins to retreat northward Wednesday into Thursday, but the surface feature remains over and to the north of the central Bahamas. High pressure both aloft over the eastern seaboard and at the surface from the Gulf will try to build in later in the week which could potentially help lower the coverage of convection but the persistently easterly flow component will keep mentionable rain chances in the forecast through the period along the east coast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Generally VFR outside of brief bouts of sub-VFR possible with passing Atlantic showers and storms. Breezy NE winds will prevail most of the time with gusts reaching over 20 kts at times.

MARINE

Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the beginning of next week, with conditions progressively worsening over the weekend. Northeasterly winds will increase into the 20 to 25 kt range for both the Atlantic and Gulf waters on Friday afternoon and Saturday. Widespread Small Craft Advisory conditions will be common across all waters through Sunday, but a swath of stronger winds starting on Sunday evening may lead to a period of frequent Gale force gusts along the Atlantic. A Gale Watch has been posted given probabilities of exceeding 30 kt winds climbs to around 40-50% on Sunday afternoon. Seas are currently forecast to peak around 6-9 feet in the Gulf and 10-14 feet across the Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday. High seas and breezy conditions will persist through at least the middle of the week, before conditions finally start to relax on Wednesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A high risk of rip currents will persist for all Atlantic beaches through at least the middle of next week. Surf heights up to 6 feet may be possible though Saturday for the Palm Beaches. On Sunday, dangerous surf heights of 10 to 12 feet may be possible for the northern Palm Beach area. Strong onshore wind flow and high seas may combine with King Tides to increase the threat of major coastal flooding along the Atlantic through the weekend. Dangerous surf conditions will persist through the middle of the week. See the hydrology section below for a discussion on the upcoming King Tide cycle as well.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The combination of elevated coastal water levels due to King Tides, persistent onshore wind flow, and localized pockets of the area that can easily become saturated due to antecedent rainfalls creates a concern for flooding from excessive rainfall Sunday into Monday. Adding in the moderate to major coastal flooding which could materialize due to the king tides along the Atlantic coast, it could be difficult for water to drain from some coastal areas late this weekend into early next week until the window around low tide comes. Held off on a Flood Watch with this forecast cycle as a drier outlook for Saturday still makes the timing a bit premature, but it will have to be considered if the forecast trend continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 71 84 71 84 / 20 10 40 60 West Kendall 70 85 70 85 / 10 10 20 50 Opa-Locka 71 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 60 Homestead 70 84 70 85 / 20 10 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 71 83 71 83 / 20 20 60 70 N Ft Lauderdale 71 83 71 84 / 20 20 60 70 Pembroke Pines 71 85 71 85 / 20 10 50 60 West Palm Beach 70 83 71 83 / 20 20 70 80 Boca Raton 71 82 71 83 / 20 20 70 80 Naples 66 84 68 86 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168.

Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676.