textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- The heat will be the primary threat for the next couple days as overall rain chances remain lower. Heat indices will run from around 105 to 110 degrees each day, creating moderate to extreme HeatRisk each day. Wear light-weight, light color clothing and stay hydrated.

- As drier air works into the area, rain chances decline for the next few days. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible, with gusty winds and frequent lightning remaining the primary threats.

- Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Weak ridging is in place across the FL peninsula as the subtropical ridge axis remains well to the east. In response, a light easterly flow continues throughout the column. This flow is beginning to advect a drier and more stable airmass into the region from the Caribbean, becoming more pronounced over the next 24 hours or so.

As this drier air mixes into the region, the overall potential for thunderstorm activity will decline. There is still a window tomorrow morning for what will likely be lower-topped showers to develop before the drier air mixes through the column. However, once the sea breeze pushes inland, what thunderstorm activity remains should transition inland.

Along the SWFL coast, this won't be quite be as pronounced. With a light easterly flow, this favors a slightly delayed sea breeze initiation. When the east coast sea breeze collides with the west coast sea breeze later in the day, the added moisture pooling should still support some thunderstorms. However, with some drier air, overall coverage is still expected to be lower; and unlike the east coast, there won't be any morning storms.

With lower rain chances, there is an elevated risk for heat-related impacts. Early storms tomorrow along the FL East coast will favor higher dewpoints (and thus higher apparent or "feels-like" temperatures) until that moisture can mix out. Even once this occurs, the increase in ambient air temperature will negate any relief. Thus, heat indices up to around 110 degrees should be expected in the east coast metro. Meanwhile, a warm and humid start across the interior and SWFL will still favor high heat indices; maybe slightly lower through the morning, but ticking up to around 110 as daytime heating progresses. This will push the HeatRisk into the high category for the day.

If spending time outdoors, be sure to wear appropriate clothing. Stay hydrated and in the shade as much as possible, take breaks, and know the signs of heat-related illnesses.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

While the overall synoptic patterns remains fairly static into next week, the dry air will not stick around for days. As the weekend approaches, the drier air will advect out of the region, once again replaced by deeper moisture. This favors better shower and thunderstorm chances across the region once again for Friday and Saturday. However, another pocket of drier air looks to advect into the region late into the weekend, with lower rain chances again on for Sunday and Monday. Once again, by the middle of next week, moisture rebounds and greater thunderstorm coverage returns.

However, there will be some adjustments to the timing of thunderstorms as the ridge axis shifts farther away. In response to this shift, the flow will turn a bit more southerly (and more WSW along the SWFL coast). Overall, though, this won't lead to any drastic changes across the region.

On days and in areas where there is better storm coverage, the overall impact from the heat will be lower. On the drier days, the heat impacts will again be more elevated with limited relief from thunderstorm activity. Regardless of thunderstorm activity, it will be important to continue practicing good heat safety.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The east coast sea breeze has now migrated inland, with most thunderstorm activity now east of SFL terminals. Meanwhile, thunderstorm activity is now moving into the vicinity of APF as the west coast sea breeze now initiates thunderstorm activity. For APF, on-station impacts are anticipated for the next few hours. For SFL terminals, on-station impacts are looking increasingly unlikely for the remainder of the day. However, some outflow boundaries that are slowly meandering back to the east could lead to new thunderstorm development in the vicinity of SFL terminals. Thus, leaving VCTS mention for now, but have removed TEMPOs. As drier air filters in tomorrow, the overall potential for SFL terminals to see storms is lower. If storms do develop, they are most likely to occur between 14Z and 18Z along the east coast. SWFL still has a better chance for afternoon thunderstorms due to sea breeze convergence near the west coast later in the day. Drier weather is the theme for the next few days overall, though. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR will prevail.

MARINE

Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Drier conditions are expected across Atlantic waters beginning tonight and lasting through at least Thursday. As the subtropical ridge axis builds into the area, this may bring an uptick in winds and seas beginning Wednesday nigh. Winds will generally remain out of the east or southeast for the next several days, gradually subsiding again by late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 93 82 94 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 77 93 79 94 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 80 94 81 95 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 80 93 81 93 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 81 92 83 93 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 81 92 82 92 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 81 95 82 96 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 79 92 80 93 / 10 20 0 0 Boca Raton 81 91 82 92 / 10 20 0 0 Naples 77 94 78 96 / 20 20 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069-070-072-074- 172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.