textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Moderate coastal flooding is expected with each high tide cycle. Major coastal flooding is possible late this weekend into early next week. - Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is possible across the east coast metros Sunday through Monday.

- Strong winds, with gusts over 35 mph are possible Sunday through Monday.

- Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

South Florida finds itself at the base of a positively tilted mid-level longwave trough. Water vapor imagery and upper air sounding observations from around the state indicate that deep layer dry air is currently in place across most of Florida, keeping conditions more dry and stable through the region. As the main trough axis swings across the state through tomorrow, unsettled weather will remain across the more unstable Gulf Stream waters. A few isolated showers may hug the Atlantic coastline during the day, but most activity will remain offshore. Deeper moisture remains further southeast over the Bahamas and closer to a stalled boundary near eastern Cuba, where a complex of thunderstorms is currently ongoing. However, here in South Florida, model soundings seem to indicate that moisture content will actually trend drier on Saturday. Precipitable water values will drop from a near average 1.6 inches, to a bottom tenth percentile of 0.8 to 0.9 inches. Models hint at the drier air reaching the surface this time, with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s through the middle of the day. As a result, PoPs will be very low across most of South Florida, less than 10% for most areas. In addition to the dry air, subsidence aloft should keep any showers from being able to mature or develop. Coastal convergence may be possible, but there is very low confidence for rain amounts to be anything greater than half an inch through tomorrow afternoon.

Forecast confidence for the Saturday night through Sunday period has quite honestly decreased. Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to struggle with a solution for the shortwave feature coming off of the Carolina coast. There is less agreement among guidance as to weather this feature develops into a closed mid-level low as it tracks southward along the Florida coastline, or whether it stays an open wave and join the overall longwave troughing pattern. Solutions also differ as to how fast and how far east and south this feature will move over the next two days. This has major implications on the amount of rainfall South Florida may get. A deeper, slower, and more westerly tracking system would increase chances of precipitation areawide. However, most model guidance has continued to trend lower with precipitation amounts. WPC QPF ensemble clusters show that 1 to 1.5 inches through Monday would be the highest confidence scenario to play out. Yet, there is one cluster of solutions that shows a scenario of 3 to 4 inches possible (but this is a lower confidence scenario). Overall, better dynamics aloft and increased streams of vorticity across the region will favor greater shower and storm activity. PoPs will climb into the 70% to 80% range over the eastern metro. Coastal convergence may allow for several storms to focus along the coastline for several hours, so a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall exits for minor urban flooding along low lying and poor drainage locations.

Breezy northeasterly winds will continue to strengthen through the weekend for all areas. Breezy winds may combine with high surf and unusually high tides over the weekend. This may result in moderate to potentially major tidal flooding for coastal areas along Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. Remember to never drive, walk, or wade across flooded roads.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

By the time Sunday night rolls around, strong surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and deepening surface troughing over the northern Caribbean will create a tightening pressure gradient across the Florida coastline. As a result, winds will continue to strengthen into Monday and Tuesday. Sustained winds over the waters will already be howling at 30 mph starting on Sunday, but the strongest overall winds inland look to be moreso on Monday. Some areas will be flirting with Wind Advisory criteria, with gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible. There is pretty high confidence that winds will at least reach 25 mph for many locations, but probabilities for winds greater than 30 mph area only around 30%. Nevertheless, these conditions have the potential to break weak tree branches and blow around loose objects and debris.

Strong winds and high surf will combine with the highest King Tides of the year early next week. This will result in the potential for moderate and major tidal flooding. This tidal flooding may also be exacerbated by coastal showers and rainfall, which could lead to significant water rises along the far eastern metro areas. While the peak tides will be during the beginning of the week, moderate coastal flooding may persist through the end of the week as we come out of this full moon phase.

Deeper moisture, with increased PWATs of around 1.6 to 1.8 inches, will persist over South Florida through at least Tuesday. This will keep the potential of scattered showers and storms moving along the eastern half of South Florida. A few localized stronger storms and coastal convergence may create some minor urban flooding concerns. However, the threat of rainfall will generally be on the downtrend after Monday as the mid-level troughing pattern finally ejects out into the Atlantic. Ridging from the Gulf and drier air from the north will begin to exert more influence over Florida for the middle to end of the week. This will likely result in decreasing coverage of showers and storms areawide. But with persistent northeast flow continuing, pesky onshore showers from the Gulf Stream will continue to be a nuisance each day through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions should persist for all sites through the period. With PoPs less than 15% for most locations tonight and tomorrow, felt confident enough to remove any mentionable weather. Most shower activity should remain isolated to scattered over the Gulf Stream waters, perhaps a stray shower or two reaches the coast. Breezy northeast winds will persist at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the middle of next week, with conditions progressively worsening over the latter half of the weekend. Northeasterly winds will increase into the 20 to 25 kt range for both the Atlantic and Gulf waters on on Saturday. Widespread Small Craft Advisory conditions will be common across all waters through Sunday, but stronger winds on Sunday evening and Monday are leading to increased confidence for Gale force gusts along the Atlantic waters. Probabilities of exceeding 30 kt winds climbs to around 40% on Sunday night. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are also expected to develop along the Atlantic for the Sunday through Tuesday period. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and locally higher seas will be a threat with any storm. Seas are currently forecast to peak around 6-9 feet in the Gulf and 10-14 feet across the Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday. High seas and breezy conditions will persist through at least the middle of the week, before conditions finally start to relax during the end of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A high risk of rip currents will persist for all Atlantic beaches through at least the middle of next week. Surf heights will begin to climb today but peak on Sunday and Monday. Dangerous surf heights of 10 to 12 feet may be possible for the northern Palm Beach area through Tuesday. Strong onshore wind flow and high seas may combine with King Tides to increase the threat of coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast. See the hydrology section below for a discussion on the upcoming King Tide cycle as well. There is increasing confidence that most of these beach hazards will need to be extended into the middle of the week.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The combination of elevated coastal water levels due to King Tides, persistent onshore wind flow, and localized pockets of the area that can easily become saturated due to antecedent rainfalls creates a concern for flooding from excessive rainfall Sunday into Monday. Adding in the moderate to major coastal flooding which could materialize due to the king tides along the Atlantic coast, it could be difficult for water to drain from some coastal areas late this weekend into early next week until the window around low tide comes. Held off on a Flood Watch with this forecast cycle as a drier outlook for Saturday still makes the timing a bit premature, but it will have to be considered if the forecast trend continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 83 70 84 74 / 20 20 70 60 West Kendall 84 70 85 74 / 0 10 50 40 Opa-Locka 84 69 85 73 / 20 30 60 60 Homestead 84 69 85 73 / 10 10 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 82 70 83 74 / 20 50 70 80 N Ft Lauderdale 83 71 83 74 / 20 50 70 80 Pembroke Pines 84 68 85 72 / 20 40 60 70 West Palm Beach 83 70 83 74 / 20 60 80 80 Boca Raton 82 70 83 73 / 20 50 80 80 Naples 84 67 86 70 / 0 0 20 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ168.

Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676.