textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 336 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

- A few showers will be possible today, especially along the immediate east coast.

- High Rip Current Risk along Atlantic beaches this week.

- Hazardous conditions for small craft across Atlantic waters.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 336 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

NBM solutions for ongoing POP/Wx coverage continues to under perform across the area, especially over the eastern half of SoFlo. Radar and satellite data still depicts clusters of showers streaming east- to-west from the Atlantic waters, along with showers also developing around the Lake region. Most ensemble/blend solutions also insist in drier conditions than real time data continues to show. From the global/baseline models, GFS solution looks closer to the current trends in terms of POPs and weather coverage, with those grids now updated and adjusted accordingly.

Meanwhile, ensembles and high-res solutions keep moderate high pressure aloft across the state, along with sfc high pressure dominating the E CONUS. This will continue to bring a prevailing E flow through the rest of the short term. Model and 00Z MFL sounding data show a slow increase in low lvl moisture across SoFlo with PWATs in the 1.1-1.4" range. This will be enough to continue supporting isolated to scattered passing showers, favoring east coast locations.

Chances for thunderstorms remain limited with minimal synoptic forcing available. However a few isolated thunderstorms are still possible, especially this afternoon around the Atlantic coastal waters.

High temperatures are expected to remain in the low-mid 80s, along with overnight lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1129 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

The pattern through the long term period remains largely unchanged each day. Breezy east-northeast flow continues through the majority of the week as the surface pressure gradient remains tight. There will be a chance (20-30%) for showers each day through the period as slightly above average moisture remains (PWATs 1.2-1.4 inches) with highest chances across local Atlantic waters and along the immediate east coast. Surface flow veers more easterly towards the end of the week and into the weekend as surface high pressure across the western Atlantic builds westward.

High temperatures should remain in the low 80s for east coast metro areas, however due to the easterly flow, a warming trend is expected for interior and Southwest Florida and highs could approach the upper 80s to low 90s by the middle of the work-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR conditions should continue to prevail through the next 24 hours, however, isolated to scattered rain showers are still possible across the area, especially over the Atlantic terminals through the rest of this afternoon. This may bring brief periods lower cigs at times. Breezy easterly winds continue, with gusts up to 25 kts possible through around 00-02Z, then remaining moderate overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 329 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Expect a scattering of showers and isolated thunderstorms each day and night over local waters. High pressure across the Southeast will lead to a strong easterly regime through most of this week, with winds around 20 knots creating Small Craft Advisory conditions over the Atlantic waters through Thursday morning.

BEACHES

Issued at 1129 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Strong east-northeast flow will lead to a high risk of rip currents for all Southeast Florida beaches for the majority of this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 82 73 81 / 40 20 20 30 West Kendall 68 84 68 84 / 30 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 71 83 71 83 / 40 20 10 20 Homestead 72 82 72 83 / 40 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 71 80 72 81 / 40 20 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 71 81 72 81 / 40 20 10 20 Pembroke Pines 71 84 72 84 / 40 20 10 20 West Palm Beach 71 81 71 81 / 30 20 10 20 Boca Raton 71 81 71 81 / 40 20 20 20 Naples 68 85 68 85 / 10 40 20 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.