textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Dry and pleasant conditions will continue across South Florida through the first half of the week. - Patchy fog is possible over inland SW FL early Tuesday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 1203 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Added some PoPs in over the Atlantic waters this afternoon, and have some 10% PoPs over inland SW FL early this evening. HRRR is more bullish on precip this evening, but didn't get that aggressive given the dry air in place, but a few showers are possible along the Gulf breeze later today. Also added some patchy fog in for inland South FL early tomorrow morning. Don't expect the fog to be as widespread as it was this morning, but the typical locations will likely see some fog once again.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 125 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Sensible weather conditions across South Florida will generally remain unchanged through the first half of the week, despite the gradual approach of a weak frontal boundary currently draped over north/central Florida. The boundary is forecast to remain stalled over the peninsula over the next couple of days. Nevertheless, with ridging prevailing aloft and meager moisture along the atmospheric column ahead of the front, chances for any convection associated with this boundary will remain very low. Additionally, with onshore surface flow resuming across the region and warm, moist air advecting over South Florida, the warming trend will continue, with highs in the mid 80s each afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 125 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Upper level ridging will remain in place over Florida through the middle of the week as the surface high over the western Atlantic builds back over the peninsula. This will continue to promote easterly flow and a gradual uptick in moisture (up to 1.0-1.3 inches by Wednesday). This could result in slightly warmer feels-like temperatures each afternoon; with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s each day, the apparent temperatures could start approaching the low 90s by Wednesday afternoon.

As we head into the long holiday weekend, a stout upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes region, spawning a strong surface low and associated cold front which will sweep across the nation and south across the Florida peninsula sometime between Friday and Saturday. There is still some divergence regarding timing in the ensemble envelope, with the european ensembles favoring a slightly faster progression, and the GFS looking at a slower evolution. We will continue to monitor those differences as we near the end of the week.

With enough moisture pooled over the region ahead of this front, this could mean a general increase in the chances for rain starting on Thursday and continuing through the end of the period, with PoPs in the 20-40% range each day. Temperatures could also drop slightly over the weekend once the cooler airmass moves over the area, with highs in the high 70s and lows in the mid 60s and low 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Light easterly winds overnight around 5 kts or less. Patchy fog possible early Tuesday morning over inland SW FL. Winds increase to around 10 kts becoming ESE by the afternoon, with a SSW breeze at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 125 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

A light to moderate easterly breeze will persist across the local waters through the first half of the week. Winds will veer from the west/northwest across the Gulf waters each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas will range between 1-3 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 83 72 84 / 20 0 0 10 West Kendall 67 84 68 85 / 20 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 70 84 70 86 / 20 0 0 10 Homestead 70 83 71 84 / 20 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 71 82 71 83 / 20 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 83 71 83 / 10 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 70 85 70 86 / 20 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 70 83 69 84 / 10 10 0 10 Boca Raton 70 84 70 85 / 10 0 10 10 Naples 67 85 67 84 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.