textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 702 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop today, first over interior SoFlo and the spilling over into the metro areas later in the afternoon.

- Slow storm motion combined with the potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding, especially across urban and poor drainage areas.

- Peak heat index values will range between 103 and 108 across most areas of South Florida on today and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A sprawling area of mid-level high pressure remains centered over the Appalachians and Mid-South. While not as strong, ridging will continue to exert its influence on the synoptic weather pattern over South Florida, leading to hot afternoon temperatures and more sea- breeze induced thunderstorms. With 500 mb heights in the 590 to 592 dam range (about average for this time of year according local sounding climatology), temperatures should be pretty typical for early July. High temperatures will remain in the low 90s across the region, and with the drier Saharan dust laden airmass now gone, deeper moisture will contribute to higher chances of precipitation and higher apparent temperatures. Heat indices will once again climb up to the 103 to 108 F range across much of South Florida, leading to widespread Moderate HeatRisk. These conditions will mostly affect sensitive populations such as the elderly, but heat illness may affect anyone without proper cooling and hydration.

Current surface analysis indicates the presence of a stationary boundary associated with some surface troughing over the Atlantic waters east of central Florida. It is along this boundary where north to northeast flow converges with south to southeast flow over the Bahamas, which has allowed for isolated shower activity to continue late into the night off the coast of Palm Beach county. As a result, some isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the eastern metro area through the early morning hours as activity moves onshore. The aforementioned boundary feature will then wash out and lose influence as diurnal heating induces the sea-breeze wind regime across South Florida. With high pressure aloft and winds being mostly light and variable, both the Atlantic and Gulf breeze should advance far inland, creating scattered to numerous thunderstorms over interior portions of South Florida. Due to little synoptic forcing being available, most activity will be driven by sea-breeze and outflow boundary interactions. CAMs suggest that storm activity will spill over into the metro areas as cells interact and combine through the late afternoon and evening hours. With steep low level lapse rates, ample CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg), and PWATs climbing into the 2.1 to 2.3 inch range, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours will be the main concerns. While a few strong wind gusts are not out the question, the more moist airmass and DCAPE <600 J/kg gives low confidence for any wind threat.

Friday looks to be a pretty similar story, with the highest chances of precipitation focusing along interior South Florida. Some hi-res models are hinting that PWATs for Friday may climb even higher, which could increase the coverage of heavy rainfall. Temperatures will once again be in the low 90s. The potential for Heat Advisories will continue to be monitored over the next few days, but the increased storm coverage and cloud cover should keep the highest heat indices of 105 to 110 F to a smaller window in time and more isolated in coverage.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

During the upcoming holiday weekend, mid level ridging centered over the Southeastern portion of the country on Saturday will gradually weaken as it slowly pushes southeastward into the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will continue to build closer to the Florida Peninsula as the weekend progresses. South Florida will remain on the western periphery of this area of high pressure during this frame. This will help to keep a general southeasterly wind flow in place across the region through the weekend. The latest forecast model soundings show plenty of deep layer moisture remaining in place over the region through the weekend with PWAT values fluctuating between 2.0 and 2.3 inches during this time frame. This will be supportive of shower and thunderstorm development each day. The main driver of convective initiation will be the sea breeze development. With the southeasterly wind flow in place, the Atlantic sea breeze will be able to push further inland, which will keep the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms over the interior and west coast. With a lack of mid to upper level support, strong thunderstorm development will remain limited during this time frame. However, it cannot be entirely ruled out especially over the interior portions of Southwest Florida where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide. High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s over the weekend across most areas. Peak heat index values will still remain on the higher side as they generally will range between 105 and 110 across most areas.

Moving into the early and middle portion of next week, the weather pattern does not change much as the mid level ridge over the western Atlantic gradually pushes back to the west and centers over the Florida Peninsula and the eastern Gulf by Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, South Florida will remain on the western periphery of an area of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic keeping the southeasterly wind flow in place. This will allow for daily convective development to remain sea breeze driven, with the highest chances of showers and storms focusing over the interior and west coast east afternoon. As mid level heights gradually rise during the early to middle portion of the week, heat will remain a concern as high temperatures generally rise into the lower 90s each day across most areas. Some locations, however, could see highs rise into the mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. Peak heat index values will continue to range from 105 to 110 each day during the early to middle portion of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning becoming more numerous this afternoon into early evening which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Outside of convection, easterly winds around 10 kts today with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF.

MARINE

Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Light and variable winds overnight across most of the region with some isolated shower activity. Winds will shift out of the south to southeast during the afternoon. Over the Gulf, ESE winds look to trend more southwesterly during the latter half of the day. Overall, wave heights will be around 2 to 3 feet. Some thunderstorm activity may spill into marine areas each afternoon, creating locally higher seas and gusty and erratic winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 91 78 91 79 / 80 30 60 20 West Kendall 92 75 92 76 / 80 30 70 20 Opa-Locka 92 78 93 79 / 70 30 60 30 Homestead 91 78 92 79 / 70 20 50 30 Fort Lauderdale 90 79 91 80 / 70 30 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 90 78 91 79 / 70 30 50 30 Pembroke Pines 93 80 94 80 / 70 30 60 30 West Palm Beach 90 78 91 78 / 60 20 70 30 Boca Raton 90 78 90 79 / 60 20 50 30 Naples 91 77 91 78 / 50 30 60 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.