textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 723 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during high tide today, with moderate flooding into the end of this week. Inundated roadways are expected for coastal areas.

- Marine and beach conditions will remain gradually improve today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A slight transition is in the works for South Florida as we head into the end of the week and the weekend. The pressure gradient responsible for the breezy conditions the past couple of days will continue to relax as the area of low pressure previously over the Bahamas continues to drift eastward over the Atlantic Ocean. As this happens, an area of surface pressure over the southeastern US will extend south along the peninsula, driving continued light northeasterly flow across the area. Moisture will also continue to advect across South Florida along the periphery of this surface ridge, with forecast soundings showing well-moistened lower levels likely through the period. However, chances for precipitation will remain generally on the lower end each afternoon (PoPs in the 30-40% range at best), thanks to ridging and drier air sitting aloft. A few pop-up showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two could still develop as diurnal heating destabilizes the atmospheric column, but convective growth should be limited by subsidence associated with the ridge.

High temperatures will rise a few degrees as high pressure builds and more sunshine is possible, so temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A wetter pattern looks likely this weekend as mid-level ridging over the Gulf is forecast to break down, giving way to a more zonal flow pattern aloft across the Florida peninsula. At the same time, an upper level shortwave feature will begin to develop over the western Gulf. Moisture will pool across the area on Saturday ahead of this feature, and with ridging aloft and near the surface both weakening, weaker northeasterly winds will allow sea breeze dynamics to once again play a more prominent role in convective development during the afternoon. This will mean a gradual increase in rain chances through the day, with the majority of convection focused across interior and southwest FL during the afternoon hours where the breezes meet. Afternoon temperatures could peak in the upper 80s.

Conditions become more unsettled Sunday into Monday as the aforementioned upper-level disturbance approaches the peninsula. This feature will help support large-scale ascent across the area, and should cool the mid-levels enough to support more instability along the atmospheric column. This is supported by the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) from yesterday's 12Z run, which shows the ensemble leaning towards unusually high CAPE across the area.As such, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main concerns with any of the stronger storms that develop.

Conditions look to dry out as we head into the middle of next week, with chances for rainfall limited to some coastal showers each day (PoPs 15-20%). Temperatures will cool down a bit Sunday-Monday with the increased storminess and cloud cover, with highs in the mid 80s. Lows will slide into the mid 60s across the interior, and the low 70s along the coasts.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 723 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Overcast ceilings over KAPF will maintain IFR/LIFR conditions through the early morning hours. Elsewhere, generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Northeasterly winds will persist, with a few isolated showers possible for East Coast terminals through the day.

MARINE

Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Boating conditions start to gradually improve today as surface high builds over the area. Northeasterly winds 10-15 knots will prevail through Friday, and could increase back up to Advisory criteria across the Atlantic waters this weekend. Scattered showers will continue each day with a few isolated thunderstorms possible.

BEACHES

Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Coastal flooding remains likely along the South Florida coastlines during the high tide cycles today. Observations continue to out-perform guidance by a decent margin, leading us to anticipate tidal gauges to continue reaching Moderate flooding levels once again today. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastline, while a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for mainland Monroe, where Minor stage coastal flooding could be possible.

A high risk of rip currents will also persist along the Palm Beach county beaches through Friday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 87 75 86 76 / 30 20 30 30 West Kendall 88 75 87 76 / 30 10 30 20 Opa-Locka 88 75 87 76 / 30 20 30 30 Homestead 88 75 87 76 / 20 20 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 85 75 84 76 / 30 20 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 86 75 85 76 / 30 20 20 40 Pembroke Pines 87 74 87 75 / 30 20 20 30 West Palm Beach 85 74 84 75 / 30 20 30 40 Boca Raton 85 75 84 76 / 30 20 20 40 Naples 87 72 87 73 / 20 0 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.