textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 633 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms over interior SW FL early this evening.

- Persistent easterly winds will maintain a High Risk of Rip Currents into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Overall less convection coverage than was anticipated as the weak disturbance passed further north of the area. Still seeing plenty of thunderstorms over interior South FL and around the lake region.

Latest model runs for the SAL is now showing higher concentrations early to mid next week, and ensemble means are showing below normal PWAT values next week, so PoPs continue to trend downward next week. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast largely remains on track.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Deep-layered high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic, while an inverted trough continues to lift north of the Bahamas. Recent water vapor satellite imagery and the 00Z MFL sounding/ACARS data show mid-level dry air has filtered into the region ahead of the disturbance, with a pronounced dry layer between 500-900 mb keeping PWATs around 1.5 to 1.6 inches. However, deep tropical moisture is expected to pool into South Florida as the disturbance moves closer to the peninsula today, pushing PWATs back up toward 2.0 inches and supporting an increase in convective coverage across the area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are thus expected along the east coast in the morning to early afternoon. A subtle shift to a more southeasterly steering flow should displace the late afternoon convective focus further inland toward the Lake Okeechobee region and northern interior, where the highest PoPs (60-70%) are concentrated. Localized heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will remain the primary hazards with any strong storms. By Saturday, the inverted trough will lift north and away from the region, though lingering tropical moisture will maintain elevated PoPs across the area under a similar diurnal pattern.

High temperatures today should remain in the low 90s given expected cloud coverage, warming slightly into the mid 90s over the interior and Southwest Florida on Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the low 80s along the immediate east coast and mid-to-upper 70s elsewhere. Moderate HeatRisk will continue across the eastern half of South Florida and western Collier County.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

High pressure builds back across the Florida peninsula by Sunday and persists through the first half of the week, bringing overall coverage down to a more typical sea-breeze driven convective pattern. Thus, scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the extended period. Under prevailing easterly to southeasterly flow, early morning showers are possible over the Atlantic waters and coastal areas each day, with the highest convective coverage in the afternoon favoring the interior under lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes early next week.

Other than the diurnal sea-breeze pattern, guidance continues to hint at a plume of Saharan dust approaching South Florida Monday night into Tuesday. If this dry air mass moves directly overhead, it could suppress overall convective coverage and rain chances through mid-week. However, if South Florida remains on the periphery of the plume, the intrusion of mid-level dry air could bring potential for severe wind concerns with isolated storms along sea-breeze boundaries. Will continue to monitor the evolution of this airmass in future guidance.

With high pressure in place and a slight warming trend expected across South Florida, heat impacts will remain a concern through the middle of the work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

ESE winds 5-10 kts overnight, increasing to 10-15 kts after 16Z with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. VCTS after 18Z at APF. Probs too low for mention at this point for the east coast terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Moderate easterly winds will prevail across all local waters through the weekend, with occasional fresh breezes over the Atlantic today into Saturday driven by a passing disturbance north of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range between 3 to 4 today before subsiding to around 2 feet through the weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in effect for all Atlantic beaches through at least Saturday morning due to persistent moderate easterly winds. The rip current risk should gradually decrease late this weekend into early next week as winds relax across local waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 80 91 81 91 / 30 10 20 20 West Kendall 79 91 78 92 / 20 10 20 20 Opa-Locka 81 92 81 92 / 30 10 20 20 Homestead 80 91 80 91 / 20 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 80 90 81 90 / 30 10 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 81 91 81 91 / 30 10 30 30 Pembroke Pines 81 91 81 91 / 30 10 20 30 West Palm Beach 80 91 81 91 / 40 20 30 40 Boca Raton 80 90 81 90 / 30 20 30 30 Naples 77 91 77 91 / 20 50 20 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.