textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 320 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop across the interior and southwest FL this afternoon. Chances will gradually decrease early next week.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts could be likely again today as temperatures rise into the low-mid 90s, and heat indices linger in the 103-106F range.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Ridging will gradually build over the Florida peninsula through the short term period, while the upper-level disturbance that has influenced the region over the past few days shifts farther away. Near the surface, weak high pressure will remain in place across the western Atlantic, maintaining a light southerly to southeasterly flow pattern over the area. This pattern will support continued advection of low level moisture, which combined with strong diurnal heating will support isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms develop each afternoon. However, with ridging developing over the region, overall coverage should be lower than in recent days, and mostly constrained to the interior and southwest Florida. NBM was a bit overzealous in its PoPs each afternoon, so we lowered chances a bit (into the 40-50% range).

A drier air mass will work its way into the region starting on Tuesday, aided by an approaching plume of Saharan dust. This will help further inhibit convective development across the area. While isolated showers and storms will remain possible (especially along the breeze boundaries) coverage should remain limited compared to recent days.

Heat will remain a big concern today, as temperatures continue to rise into the low-mid 90s and heat indices reach the low 100s. However, the risk of heat indices reaching or exceeding Heat Advisory criteria remains fairly marginal today. In fact, recent verification stats have shown lower-than-expected coverage of advisory-level heat indices, and forecast conditions remain similar to those observed over the past couple of days. Nevertheless, there is still a medium to high likelihood (50-70%) of Major HeatRisk conditions across South Florida this afternoon, which poses big risks for vulnerable populations. As such, members of the public are encouraged to exercise caution while outdoors, taking frequent breaks, staying hydrated and wearing light clothing.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Ridging will continue to build over the region this week as Saharan dust continues to filter in from the Atlantic. Both developments will help reduce the chances of showers and thunderstorms each day by introducing drier air and subsidence into the area. Best chances for any convection will remain over the southwest and interior where sea breezes will meet.

Conditions start to change during the later half of the week as moisture is forecast to gradually filter back over the area. This should support a transition back to the more typical summertime pattern, with scattered afternoon showers and storms developing each day. While widespread rainfall is not anticipated, convective coverage will gradually increase compared to the first half of the week.

Heat will remain a problem, especially with the introduction of Saharan dust into the mix. Temperatures will continue to climb into the mid 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the 105-110 range likely.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this morning, with light and variable winds at all terminals. Winds become southerly this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze at KAPF. Some chance for SHRA/TSRA over the interior, with impacts possible at KAPF. Light and variable winds again overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A light southerly-southeasterly breeze will prevail across the local Atlantic waters this week, with a westerly-southwesterly breeze developing across the Gulf waters each afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the local waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas possible with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 93 80 93 79 / 10 10 30 10 West Kendall 94 78 94 76 / 20 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 94 80 95 79 / 10 10 30 10 Homestead 93 80 93 79 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 81 93 80 / 10 10 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 80 92 79 / 10 10 30 10 Pembroke Pines 96 81 96 81 / 10 10 30 10 West Palm Beach 93 79 93 78 / 20 10 30 10 Boca Raton 91 80 92 79 / 10 10 30 10 Naples 93 79 92 79 / 20 20 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.