textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 307 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the interior and southwest FL this afternoon. A few could generate gusty winds, as well as lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts again today, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s, and heat indices 103-107F.

- Dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will move into the area starting today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Ridging will continue to build over the Florida peninsula through the short term period while a plume of Saharan dust makes its final approach. Near the surface, weak high pressure will remain in place across the western Atlantic, maintaining a light southerly to southeasterly flow pattern over the area. Altogether, these features will promote an environment that, although somewhat drier and warmer, could still produce isolated to scattered showers each afternoon. Today, guidance suggests an initial round of showers and storms could move onshore from the Atlantic during the late morning/early afternoon hours, before additional convection develops along inland moving boundaries. In fact, the bulk of the activity today is forecast to remain focused across the interior and southwest FL, with 40-50% PoPs overspreading the area. Some of these storms could produce wind gusts up to 40-50 mph and frequent lightning.

Heat will remain a big concern today, as temperatures continue to rise into the low-mid 90s and heat indices reach the low 100s. Although increased cloud cover associated with any of the early-day showers could help temper temperatures a bit, guidance is still fairly bullish regarding the potential of heat indices reaching and exceeding Advisory criteria for portions of the East Coast metro. As such, a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM to 6PM today for dangerous heat conditions. Members of the public are encouraged to exercise caution while outdoors, taking frequent breaks, staying hydrated and wearing light clothing.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Ridging will remain in place through the extended period while Saharan dust lingers over the area. The combination of subsidence aloft and drier air will help suppress widespread convective coverage compared to the summertime normal, but isolated to scattered showers and storms may still be possible across interior and southwest FL where the prevailing flow meets the Gulf breeze.

Above-normal temperatures will persist through the period, with highs in the low-mid 90s and heat indices up into the 105-110F range. Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts could be possible each afternoon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this morning, with light and variable winds at all terminals. Winds become southerly this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze at KAPF. Some chance for SHRA/TSRA over the interior, with impacts possible at KAPF. Light and variable winds again overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

High pressure prevails through this week over the local waters. Light south-southeast winds continue across the Atlantic, while south-southwest winds develop in the afternoons across the Gulf waters with the development of the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will predominantly remain over land areas. However, slow moving storms may drift offshore in the evenings and could produce locally hazardous winds and seas. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 93 79 92 79 / 30 20 40 20 West Kendall 94 76 93 76 / 30 20 40 20 Opa-Locka 95 79 93 79 / 30 20 40 20 Homestead 93 79 92 79 / 30 20 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 80 91 79 / 30 20 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 79 91 79 / 30 20 40 30 Pembroke Pines 96 80 95 80 / 30 20 40 20 West Palm Beach 93 78 92 78 / 30 30 40 30 Boca Raton 92 79 91 79 / 30 30 40 30 Naples 92 79 91 78 / 10 10 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.