textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 112 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Breezy northeasterly winds will prevail across South Florida today as a dry airmass remains in place.

- Moisture returns mid-week, bringing higher apparent temperatures and elevated rain chances in the forecast for Thursday and Friday.

- The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this time but a period of windy and wet conditions is possible.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

07z surface analysis depicts the establishment of light peninsular drainage flow across South Florida early this morning as a dry continental airmass continues to gradually filter in across the region. In fact, HYSPLIT backward trajectories trace the airmass in place across South Florida today back to the southwestern United States over a week and a half ago. A true welcome reprieve from the moisture and humidity that has persisted across our region over the past several days. Dewpoints are running about 5-10 degrees lower than at this time last night and are expected to drop a few more degrees before daybreak. Away from the coast and underneath clear skies, these lower dewpoint values will allow for efficient radiational cooling. A few isolated locales could even dip into the upper 50s to low 60s at daybreak across inland southwestern Florida as winds decouple underneath a nocturnal near-surface inversion. For the vast majority of us however, wake-up temps will remain in the low to mid 70s. 07z mesoanalysis this morning also reveals a very sharp precipitable water gradient across South Florida as drier air continues to push southward across the region. In fact, observed values upstream are in line with prior deterministic and ensemble guidance that forecasted precipitable water values across South Florida below the 10% percentile for this time of year. While rain chances will remain minimal (<10%) today, overnight mesoscale model guidance (HRRR,RRFS,etc) continues to hint at the potential of isolated shallow convection (sprinkles) pushing onshore along the east coast late this afternoon into tonight. Even in (all things considered) a very dry weather regime, never count out breezy northeasterly flow above the warm Gulfstream waters producing an isolated coastal sprinkle or two. No significant temperature change is expected today (forecast highs have held steady in the upper 80s to low 90s) but there will be a noticeable change in the air as dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s all day. With the humidity out of the air for the time being, peak apparent temperature values this afternoon will only reach the low to mid 90s (compared to persistent values in the upper 90s to low 100s over the last several days). I know it may be difficult to contain your excitement after learning this latest factoid, but we must take our weather wins when we can.

The advertised reprieve from moisture will be a short lived one as the frontolytic boundary and envelope of associated moisture lift back across the region during the day on Wednesday as an expansive area of surface high pressure becomes established across the southeastern United States. Mid-level ridging will also build across the southeastern United States on Wednesday, keeping the region devoid of any frontal systems. Wednesday still appears to be, very much so a transition day between the current dry airmass in place across South Florida and continued moisture advection later in the week. Breezy northeasterly flow and increasing moisture will support the potential of quick moving shower activity, still vertically capped due to residual dry air aloft. The latest forecast continues to depict 20-40% rain chances across the southeastern half of the region on Wednesday afternoon. Forecast high temperatures range from the upper 80s along the east coast to values in the low 90s across southwestern Florida.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Northeasterly surface flow will gradually veer to an easterly direction by Thursday as the axis of surface ridging across the southeastern United States slides eastward into the western Atlantic waters. This will focus the best diurnal rain chances across the western half of the peninsula during the second half of the work week, although overnight and morning activity will still be a possibility along the east coast of South Florida given the breezy easterly flow and continued moisture advection. Mid-level ridging briefly established across the southeastern United States during the early to mid portion of the work week will quickly flatten by Thursday as the next lobe of troughing slides eastward across the northern United States. As the positively tilted trough amplifies and digs across the eastern United States, a strengthening surface low will strengthen and push east-northeastward in tandem. Model guidance remains in agreement that a surface frontal boundary attached to the aforementioned surface low will push southwards across the eastern United States in response and arrive in the vicinity of the Florida Peninsula during the upcoming weekend. There remains a great amount of variability/ uncertainty in model solutions of exact frontal boundary placement) from run to run and model member to model member (ensemble vs deterministic). Model guidance has trended away from a full passage of the boundary across the region and now depicts an initial stall of the boundary somewhere across the Florida Peninsula.

The placement of the aforementioned frontal boundary in relation to South Florida, surface high pressure axis to the north, and any mesoscale coastal convergence will have a direct influence on potential rainfall totals, wind gusts, and the severity of any marine/coastal impacts across the region during the upcoming weekend into next week. Forecasted precipitable water and low level RH values (via forecast soundings) during this time period appear to approach the daily max for this time of year, indicative of an airmass that is saturated in the low level boundary layer. 500mb temperatures are also forecast to be on the warmer side which may support an expansive warm cloud layer. Outside of the heavy rain, guidance has also been consistent in showing the enhancement of a pressure gradient across the western Atlantic and South Florida. This would act to increase wind speeds across the area, resulting in gusty conditions and potential marine and coastal impacts. The forecast remains highly uncertain and fluid, stay tuned for a clearer idea of what may happen as we progress through the remainder of the work week. Forecast high temperatures will remain status quo through the end of the work week with values in the upper 80s to low 90s possible each afternoon. Apparent temperatures will also rebound with increased moisture, reaching the upper 90s to low 100s on Thursday and Friday. An increase in wind and rain chances may keep ambient and apparent temperatures lower beginning during the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into the evening for all terminals. Northeasterly winds across the region will hold through tomorrow, with a gradual shift towards waves of easterly gusts tomorrow afternoon. Dry conditions are forecast to continue for the northern terminals through the forecast period, with a possibility of light showers returning to the southern terminals by tomorrow night.

MARINE

Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Breezy northeasterly winds will prevail across the local waters of South Florida today. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions could be realized at times across the Atlantic and Gulf waters through Wednesday night as winds enhance and lessen with nocturnal/diurnal cycles. Waves will remain 2-3 feet across the region through early Thursday with the caveat that locally higher waves and winds are possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity beginning on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 88 78 89 / 10 30 20 50 West Kendall 75 88 77 89 / 10 30 20 40 Opa-Locka 76 88 78 90 / 10 20 20 50 Homestead 76 88 78 89 / 10 40 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 76 87 78 88 / 10 20 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 88 78 89 / 10 20 30 60 Pembroke Pines 75 88 78 89 / 10 20 20 50 West Palm Beach 75 88 77 89 / 10 10 30 70 Boca Raton 76 88 78 88 / 10 20 30 60 Naples 72 90 73 90 / 0 10 0 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.