textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 653 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

- The odds of significant cold, coastal, and marine impacts across South Florida this weekend continues to increase.

- An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for the Lake Okeechobee region and coastal Palm beach County and a Freeze Watch is in effect for inland Collier, Miami Dade and Broward counties. Wind chills could drop into the 20s across all of South Florida early Sunday morning.

- Very breezy conditions are expected on Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning as the strong cold front pushes through the area. Sustained winds 15-25 mph could gust up to 40 mph, with highest winds likely along the immediate coastlines.

- A Gale Watch is in effect for local waters beginning on Saturday afternoon and evening. Sustained winds of 30-40 knots with higher gusts is possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters through Sunday afternoon. Wave heights could peak as high as 12 feet across the Gulf and Atlantic waters during the day on Sunday as well.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

A weak area of low pressure slides across the peninsula today leading to an enhanced chance for showers, especially along the east coast areas. Rainfall is not expected to be widespread, however it will be a mainly cloudy day with off and on showers through the afternoon and evening hours. On Saturday, the area of low pressure enters the western Atlantic and will rapidly begin to deepen. The frontal boundary associated with this system will approach the area during the morning hours, and should pass through the peninsula by the late afternoon. Surface winds will dramatically increase ahead of, and immediately behind the front. By around sunset time, strong northwest winds will overspread the entire area between 15-25 mph with isolated gusts to 40 mph possible. Conditions across local waters are expected to become treacherous through this time period as well, with wind gusts up to 50 kts possible heading towards the Gulf Stream. It definitely is not a weekend to be on the water in a small craft.

Mild temperatures are expected through the short term period with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. The significant cooldown arrives on Sunday morning, which will be discussed in the long term section below.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

The coolest and driest air mass of the season thus far arrives early Sunday morning with potentially widespread freezing or near freezing low temperatures across South Florida. Northwest flow prevails behind the strong front, which will advect a dry arctic continental air mass down the Florida peninsula all day on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday morning could be just as cold as cold air advection is maximized, and maritime modification to the air mass is minimized, or nearly non-existent. A Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for the Lake Okeechobee region and Coastal Palm beach County. A Freeze Watch extends from interior Collier County to interior Broward and Miami Dade Counties. These will likely be transitioned to Extreme Cold Warnings and Freeze warnings over the coming 24 hours, with Cold Weather Advisories all but guaranteed for the coastal areas of SE Florida not currently covered by a cold hazard. Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday and Monday may not reach much higher than the mid 50s. Confidence is increasing that this could be the coldest Arctic snap across South Florida since December 2010. Temperatures begin to rebound on Tuesday morning but will still dip into the lower 30s to lower 40s across all of South Florida although Tuesday afternoon we may finally be able to reach the 60s during the afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures (finally) are able to climb back into the 70s.

While the anomalous temperature forecast continues to steal the show, surface winds behind this cold front will be quite significant as well. Winds will increase out of the northwest on Saturday afternoon between 15-25 mph over land with potential gusts to around 40 mph through Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is not out of the question for this time period, and this potential will continue to be monitored. Regardless, it would be wise to secure any light outdoor objects that may become projectiles prior to this weekend.

Visit our website for graphical temperature forecasts (hover over 'Forecast' and then click 'Cold Weather' OR 'Other Probabilistic Forecast Graphics'). Describing temperatures across every part of the forecast area through text is a bit clunky and images make the message much clearer.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period today. Light winds today will gradually increase out of the northwest as the day progresses. A few isolated showers will be possible throughout the day, so we'll continue to carry VCSH, but confidence regarding impacts remains low so we did not introduce TEMPOs this cycle. Nevertheless, they could be needed later today. Light and variable winds again overnight, then winds begin to increase out of the WNW tomorrow as a cold front moves across the region.

MARINE

Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Conditions across local waters continue to improve today before they will once again rapidly deteriorate on Saturday. NNE flow will range around 10-15 kts today. Friday night into early Saturday, winds will veer to a more westerly direction across all local waters increasing to 30-40 kts by late Saturday night. Gusts during this time period could reach 40-50 kts. A Gale Watch is in effect for all local waters which will likely be transitioned to a Gale Warning on Friday. Wave heights will peak with the winds late Saturday night into early sunday warning with heights of 10-12 feet across both Gulf and Atlantic waters. Winds and waves will slowly subside through the afternoon and evening on Sunday.

BEACHES

Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches through the end of the week. Rip current probabilities are poised to increase behind a cold front passage late this weekend into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 70 55 68 36 / 40 10 30 10 West Kendall 71 50 70 32 / 40 10 20 0 Opa-Locka 71 55 68 34 / 40 10 30 10 Homestead 72 55 71 37 / 50 10 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 55 67 34 / 40 20 30 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 55 67 34 / 30 20 30 0 Pembroke Pines 71 54 70 34 / 40 20 30 10 West Palm Beach 71 53 66 32 / 30 20 30 0 Boca Raton 71 54 68 34 / 30 20 30 10 Naples 70 55 66 37 / 10 30 60 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for FLZ063-066>068-168.

Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for FLZ063-066>068-070-071-073-168.

AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for AMZ610.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for AMZ630.

Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for GMZ656-657-676.