textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1254 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- Above average temperatures continue today and will continue through the weekend. Probabilities of heat-related impacts across urban areas during this time frame continue to increase.

- Next chance for rain arrives early next week as a frontal boundary approaches the region.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

With a lack of significant synoptic forcing, benign and mostly sunny conditions should prevail through the short term period. Sea breezes should dominate the local surface wind flow with east-southeast winds prevailing across the east coast each afternoon and west- southwest winds across Southwest Florida. Upper level ridging continues to slide eastward across the Gulf through the short term period which should provide enough subsidence to prevent significant convective development but lead to a prolonged period of unseasonable heat.

Highs today and Friday will reach the upper 80s to perhaps even low 90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s for interior locations. NWS HeatRisk remains minor along the coasts and moderate for interior locations today. On Friday, moderate heat risk expands to all of South Florida as the warming trend continues. Overnight lows tonight will be the most comfortable of the next 5-7 days reaching the mid 70s. Friday night, overnight lows will struggle to dip much lower than the upper 70s, and may not even dip below 80 overnight - especially for areas closest to the water. While these temperatures are not uncommon for South Florida in general, they are quite unusual this early in the year, and with little to no relief from the heat and humidity overnight, this is the main reason for the increase in HeatRisk to moderate on Friday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

In previous discussions, a frontal boundary was poised to progress southward towards the Florida peninsula and lead to an uptick in rain chances for the weekend. Timing for this feature has slowed significantly, and given the last few forecast model runs, it's looking more and more likely that the weekend will remain dry, sunny and hot. A few showers could be possible for interior locations where sea breezes collide, however with upper level ridging nearly overhead, these should be low-topped and rather weak. The excessive heat risk peaks over the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and mid-upper 90s for interior locations. NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk depicts a 70-80% probability of Major HeatRisk across the east coast metro on Saturday and Sunday with a 10-15% chance of extreme (level 4/4) HeatRisk. While these probabilistic values may fluctuate as we remain several days out in time, Major and Extreme HeatRisk can be impactful to anyone without adequate cooling/hydration as well as health system and industries. Very little relief is expected heading into early next week on Monday and Tuesday with highs remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight lows will struggle to dip below 80 degrees during this time period, especially for coastal areas. This will provide little to no relief from the heat during the nighttime periods.

Heat impacts aside, rain chances will begin to increase on Monday and Tuesday and a front passes through the region. A surface low will deepen and accelerate towards the northeast which will send its attendant frontal boundary through the area. This will lead to southerly flow across the area on Monday, and if the boundary is able to pass through the area (which seems more likely than not currently) northeast flow on Tuesday which hypothetically could provide a little relief from the heat. Rain chances remain around 30- 50% early next week, dependent on the exact timing of this front but am holding steady with this update for now.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Southeast wind flow is expected at eastern sites while Gulf breeze development at APF is likely during the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Generally benign marine conditions expected with variable winds throughout the coming days as upper level high pressure slides eastward across the state. Southeast flow across Atlantic waters this morning will become more southerly through the day and southwesterly by the evening. Winds will veer from the southeast towards the northwest through the day across local Gulf waters. Wave heights remain 1-3 feet over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 92 78 91 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 70 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 73 93 77 92 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 72 90 77 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 74 89 79 89 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 74 90 78 90 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 75 94 79 94 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 73 91 77 92 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 74 89 79 90 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 73 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.