textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 645 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening through the rest of the weekend. The main hazards from these storms will be gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected through the rest of the weekend for much of the area. This will mean that those who do not have hydration or adequate cooling will be affected. - Drier air associated with the Saharan Air Layer will slowly move into the area, starting late Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 406 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Latest model guidance remains in fair agreement regarding a large dome of high pressure building across much of the SE CONUS during the weekend. Meanwhile, the W Atl ridge axis should extend into the central portions of the Florida peninsula, helping in keeping an overall seasonal weather pattern in place for the short term. The current weak to moderate SE flow continues today, with onshore flow disruptions as sea breezes develop and push inland during the afternoon hours.

Despite the dominance of the high pressure over the region, there will be abundant moisture available to support convection each afternoon. Latest upper air and model soundings still depict PWATs around 2 inches, which combined with sea breeze development. and eventual collisions will support another round of afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms. With the prevailing SE component to the sfc flow expect the best chances for convection and thunderstorm activity over interior and western portions of SoFlo (~60%). However, a few strong (or even severe) cells are still possible over any of the Atlantic metro areas, especially early this afternoon with sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Also, a few showers and storms may still drift and reach eastern locations during the evening hours. As in previous days, thunderstorms that do form will likely be slow-movers, and capable of producing strong damaging winds, frequent lightning and localized flooding.

For temperatures and heat index forecast, heat related issues will continue to be the main story. Expect afternoon highs in the low-mid 90s each day. In addition, the abundant warm moisture will push heat index values into the 102-106 degrees range along the east coast and 105-108 along the western coast today. The situation will continue to be monitored in case a Heat Advisory becomes necessary. HeatRisk will also be in the moderate to major category again today, so people should exercise caution while outdoors, take frequent breaks, stay hydrated and wear light clothing. Avoid prolonged exposure to sunlight and look for shelter if necessary.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 406 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Models insist in the arrival of a Saharan Dust Layer by Sunday, but its overall impact on our weather remains rather uncertain. Model soundings show drier air entrainment at the mid levels, but overall POPs remain in the 20-40% for the east side of SoFlo, and 60-75% for the interior and western half on Sunday afternoon. Therefore, the overall weather pattern should remain fairly persistent through the long term.

High pressure aloft will continue to dominate most of the SE CONUS and the Florida peninsula, with the sfc Atlantic ridge over Central Florida gradually drifting southward through early next week. Pressure gradients are expected to remain relaxed enough through the long term to keep a generally light to moderate flow in place. This will allow for for afternoon sea breezes to become the main focal points for convection to develop. Outflow boundary collisions will likely drive late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms, which will continue to favor interior areas. But some storms may either develop over coastal metro areas early in the afternoon, or drift into them later in the day or in the early evening hours.

The Moderate to Major HeatRisk continues with main concern focusing on the highest probability (60-70% chance) of reaching the Major HeatRisk category at some point. Therefore, the situation will continue to be closely monitored in case a Heat Advisory becomes necessary. Expect afternoon highs to keep reaching the low-mid 90s each day, with a few upper 90s certainly possible, mainly over interior locations.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

SE winds 5-10 kts today, with an afternoon westerly breeze at APF. Scattered coastal showers this morning and then scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early evening which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 406 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

High pressure remains in control of the region through the forecast period. Light to moderate SSE winds will also continue over the Atlantic waters, becoming SSW over the Gulf waters with afternoon sea breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over coastal areas and move over land at times during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Any thunderstorm that forms may produce locally strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain 1-2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

BEACHES

Issued at 406 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches today as southeasterly flow becomes stronger this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 92 80 91 79 / 40 20 30 20 West Kendall 93 78 92 77 / 40 20 40 20 Opa-Locka 93 80 93 80 / 40 20 30 10 Homestead 92 80 92 79 / 30 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 91 81 91 81 / 30 20 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 90 80 90 80 / 30 20 30 10 Pembroke Pines 94 81 94 81 / 40 20 30 10 West Palm Beach 91 80 91 79 / 30 20 40 10 Boca Raton 90 81 90 81 / 30 20 40 10 Naples 93 77 93 78 / 40 20 50 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.