textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 223 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon into this evening. Rainfall chances remain elevated for the rest of this weekend and into next week. - Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding over the urban and low lying areas each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The center of the mid to upper level low continues to slowly push off of the Central Florida coast and into the eastern Gulf this afternoon. This is creating more of a southwesterly wind flow aloft while winds remain light and sea breeze driven at the surface. At the same time plenty of deep layer moisture continues to work into the region. This is shown nicely on 18z ACARS data with PWATs coming in around 2.1 inches along with the long and skinny sounding profile throughout most of the atmospheric column. Because of this abundance of moisture, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to develop especially across the interior as well as Southwest Florida.

The east coast sea breeze has pushed through most of metro areas which is allowing thunderstorm development to remain to the west of these areas. However, as new convective development becomes mainly outflow driven later this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms may push back towards the east coast metro areas during this time frame. The main hazard today with showers and storms will be the potential for high rainfall rates with the stronger storms. This in combination with very slow storm motion could lead to additional localized flooding over the urban and low lying areas. Most of the shower and thunderstorms that do develop should gradually diminsh later this evening, however, some additional convection could develop over the Atlantic waters overnight. Some of this activity could get close to the east coast metro areas during the pre dawn hours heading into Sunday morning. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across Southwest Florida to the mid to upper 70s across the east coast metro areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Continued unsettled weather this weekend across South FL as an upper level low will settle into the eastern Gulf. At the surface, there continues to be a faint signal of a decaying frontal boundary well off our Atlantic coast. Fairly deep moisture will remain in place this weekend with forecast soundings showing PWAT values generally 2.0-2.2 inches during the afternoon and early evening hours. Lower level winds will likely be light and variable the entirety of today with maybe a brief ESE component on Sunday. Winds aloft will be southwesterly today becoming more southerly on Sunday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours both days this weekend, with widely scattered coastal showers during the overnight period. With the deep moisture in place and very weak steering flows, urban and poor drainage flooding will continue to be a concern across the metro, especially over areas that have seen heavy rainfall the past couple days. While mean QPF values are not impressive, generally a quarter to half inch, the HREF 6 hour max QPF values still hint at localized amounts of several inches in a short period of time.

High temps will likely occur late morning or early afternoon before rain and cloud cover cool things off. Look for upper 80s to lower 90s for much of the area. Low temps tonight will be in the low to middle 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Next week will continue to be unsettled across the region. The upper level low will eventually lift to the northeast and get absorbed in the broader upper level flow early in the work week, however a ribbon of enhanced moisture will continue to stream across South FL for much of the week. This will result in PoPs remaining above normal (70-90%) through the end of the work week, with the highest chances being during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Urban and poor drainage flooding will remain a concern each, with WPC maintaining a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the metro each day through day 5.

With the expected rainfall and cloud cover each day, temps will hover right around normal next week with highs generally in the upper 80s to around 90. Low temps will range from the lower 70s over the interior to mid and upper 70s closer to the coasts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Rather light winds will become easterly and they will remain between 5 and 10 kts in general across the east coast terminals this afternoon. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WSW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze pushes inland. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop near the terminals during the afternoon and early evening hours. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible this afternoon along with gusty and erratic winds in and around thunderstorm activity.

MARINE

Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Weak variable winds expected across the local waters today, with a light southerly component expected on Sunday. Seas generally 2 ft or less this weekend. Scattered thunderstorms possible each day through the end of next week, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 88 76 88 / 40 80 50 80 West Kendall 74 88 74 88 / 30 80 40 80 Opa-Locka 76 89 76 88 / 40 80 40 80 Homestead 75 89 75 88 / 40 70 50 80 Fort Lauderdale 76 88 75 88 / 40 80 50 80 N Ft Lauderdale 76 89 76 88 / 40 70 40 80 Pembroke Pines 75 89 75 88 / 40 80 40 80 West Palm Beach 75 89 74 89 / 30 70 40 80 Boca Raton 75 88 75 88 / 40 70 50 80 Naples 74 88 74 88 / 30 50 60 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.