textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 649 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers are likely to develop each afternoon this weekend, with coverage most likely across interior and Southwest FL. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms.

- High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon through the rest of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 649 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

With PWATs near climatological normals and a prevailing southeasterly flow, scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across the interior and SW portions of the peninsula early this afternoon. However, coverage remained limited as mid-level water vapor satellite imagery and ACARS soundings indicate dry air advecting into the region from the western Atlantic. Lingering shower will continue to diminish this evening, giving way to mostly clear skies overnight. A few nocturnal showers may develop over the adjacent Atlantic waters and advect onshore along the East Coast during the pre-dawn and early morning hours. Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight across South Florida, with lows falling into the mid 70s across inland locations and the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coasts and metro areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 732 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

11z Mesoanalysis this morning depicts the continuation of the gradual moistening trend across the region as local ACARS data and RTMA analysis depict precipitable water values close to the daily climatological mean. MSLP analysis depicts an enhancement of surface ridging across the region, which has resulted in slightly more pronounced background southeasterly flow this morning. This southeasterly surface flow over the warm instability laden waters of the Gulfstream has resulted in vertically capped isolated shower and thunderstorm activity across the nearshore Atlantic waters over the last several hours. A nocturnal surface inversion and residual convective inhibition (CIN) over land has kept this activity largely confined to coastal areas and will likely continue to do so until the CIN & weak surface inversion fully erodes later this morning into the early afternoon hours. Outside of these isolated shallow convective cores and resultant anvil blow-off, quiet conditions prevail across much of the region. A quick warm up is forecast with ample morning sunshine, followed by increasing cumulus across land areas, incipient updraft development on the sea breeze(s), and then the bonanza of overspreading convection that is the hallmarks of a typical August afternoon in South Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The wet, unsettled pattern will continue as we head into the weekend and South FL remains flanked by two blocks of upper level ridging over the southeast US and over the western Atlantic. Heights across the peninsula will remain a bit lower than the surrounding features thanks to the simultaneous influences of an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region, and several subtle TUTTs approaching from the Caribbean. This setup will continue to promote moisture advection across the area, and more widespread convection each afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to show a moist atmospheric column, with PWATs back up to 2 inches or more across much of the area. With ample instability in place (in excess of 2500 J/kg), 500mb temperatures that are trending lower than they have over the past several weeks (down to -7C to -8C), and DCAPE values exceeding 700-800 J/kg, storms will have no difficulty developing along the sea breeze boundaries each day. And, given the forecast parameter space, some stronger storms could end up producing wind gusts 40-55 mph and small hail. Additionally, given the surge in moisture HREF guidance suggests 1-2 inches could fall across portions of the interior and southwest FL, with isolated 3-4 inches in some spots.

Similarly to previous days, activity today is most likely to start developing across the East Coast where the sea breeze moves in late morning , then propagate inland into the late afternoon and evening hours, where coverage will be maximized. However, it's worth noting that the HREF and RRFS both try to develop some isolated to scattered convection earlier in the day on Saturday thanks to an approaching TUTT.

Temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Heat indices will linger in the low 100s, but cloud coverage associated with storm activity should help mitigate values rising into the 105-110F range. That being said, today's chances for heat indices to rise above that range are slightly higher than the last couple of days given the potential of convection not firing up until after noon. Thus, short-fuse Heat Advisory could be needed later today if this other solution pans out. Overnight temperatures will also remain fairly balmy, with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s across the East Coast, and down to the mid 70s across the interior.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the extended period as the previously discussed pattern remains in place through the weekend. Towards the end of the weekend, the aforementioned upper level trough will eject eastward, dragging a surface front across the southeastern US. At the same time, weak TUTTs will continue to approach the peninsula. Easterly to southeasterly flow will continue across our region, with PWATs continuing to trend near normal or slightly above normal (1.9-2.1 inch range). Each afternoon could bring scattered to numerous showers and storms, starting along the East coast sea breeze boundary then proceeding inland into the late afternoon hours. Similarly to the short term period, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will all remain possible hazards.

Starting next week, once the trough and front progress eastward, models suggest the two flanking ridges over the US and western Atlantic will start to merge, extending across the entire region. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain likely each afternoon, with coverage maximized across the interior and southwest FL thanks to the continuing easterly flow.

Temperatures through the period will remain seasonably hot, with highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon and overnight lows in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Onshore winds at all terminals will become L/V overnight, then increase out of the east tomorrow morning. Isolated SHRA remains possible at east coast terminals between 08Z-16Z. SHRA/TSRA is possible at all terminals tomorrow after 16Z, but confidence on direct impacts remains low at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Benign boating conditions will prevail across all local waters as light to moderate winds continue. Across the local Atlantic waters, easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail, while westerly winds are forecast over the local Gulf waters. Scattered showers and storms are expected each day, mainly in the morning hours and again in the late evening hours across the local waters. Locally hazardous winds and rough seas may occur near any storm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 81 92 81 92 / 40 50 40 60 West Kendall 78 92 80 92 / 30 50 30 60 Opa-Locka 80 93 82 93 / 40 50 40 60 Homestead 79 92 81 92 / 40 50 40 50 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 82 91 / 40 50 50 70 N Ft Lauderdale 81 92 82 92 / 30 50 50 70 Pembroke Pines 81 92 82 92 / 40 50 40 70 West Palm Beach 80 93 80 92 / 20 50 50 70 Boca Raton 80 90 80 90 / 30 50 50 70 Naples 77 93 77 92 / 30 70 40 90

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.