textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Above average temperatures could be possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon ahead of a frontal passage.

- Behind the front, there will be a high chance of below average temperatures beginning on Monday night and persisting for the remainder of the week.

- There is a low to medium chance of marine fog developing over the Gulf waters overnight into tomorrow morning. Patchy fog could also develop across SW FL.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions return to South Florida beginning on Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1237 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Satellite imagery early this afternoon places a strong surface low and frontal complex slowly making its way across the deep South. Ahead of this system's approach, winds have veered from the south, and the developing pressure gradient between that complex and surface high over the western Caribbean has resulted in breezy to gusty winds all morning. The front is still forecast to make its way south along the peninsula on Monday, and should clear the area by early Tuesday morning. This slower forecasted progression means that the temperature forecast for Sunday and Monday ahead of the front has continued to trend warmer with this package, with potentially record-breaking temperatures forecast each afternoon.

Guidance continues to hint at the development of marine fog over the Gulf waters ahead of the front early tomorrow morning, alongside some patchy fog forecast for southwest FL. Probabilities of visibilities dropping below 1 mile over the waters and below one quarter of a mile over land remain above 50% for much of the aforementioned area. This could warrant the issuance of Dense Fog Advisories over these areas early tomorrow morning.

Looking ahead, models continue to trend ever so slightly colder with each run with the two frontal passages expected over the work week. NBM represented this trend fairly well, so we kept the forecast as is for now.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

As the majority of the United States deals with a sprawling winter storm and freezing temperatures, unseasonable warmth and humidity hangs on for a little while longer here in South Florida today. Mesoanalysis early this morning once again depicts much of the same on the synoptic scale. South Florida remains situated between expansive mid-level ridging across the Caribbean Sea and several transient lobes of mid-level vorticity present across most of the continental United States today. Zonal flow in the mid level (500mb) will gradually shift to a southwesterly direction later today as the axis of mid-level ridging slides eastward of the region. Closer to the surface, 850mb wind flow across South Florida will begin to veer to a southerly direction and enhance as a weak low level jet as an area of low pressure along a former stationary front across the northern Gulf coast begins to lifts northeastward. Diurnal mixing will result in breezy to at times gusty conditions across South Florida this afternoon as those slightly higher 850mb winds mix down.

With recent rainfall and winds becoming calm across inland southwestern Florida, the potential exists once again for patches of dense fog across inland and western locales through 9am this morning. The latest HREF probabilities for 0.25 mile visibility or less this morning are roughly in the 30-40% (medium) range as of the writing of this discussion. The GOES-19 ECONUS Night Fog imagery band has picked up on this well over the past few hours, which is also corroborated when looking at traffic cameras on Alligator Alley.

The Florida peninsula (and us here in South Florida) will be on a proverbial island (per se) later today as surface wind flow veers to a southerly direction and warm air advection brings continued nocturnal and diurnal temperatures that are several degrees above average. Normal high temperature values for South Florida in late January are in the mid to upper 70s. Compare that tidbit to the forecasted high temperatures for today which will range from the low 80s along the immediate coastline, mid 80s across inland metro areas, and a large spatial extent of upper 80s across inland South Florida and near Lake Okeechobee. Now, let's discuss the synoptic factors in play for our continuation of well above average temperatures. To the north, a low pressure system is forecast to develop along a sharp temperature gradient across the northern Gulf coast, aided by the phasing of the subtropical and polar jet- streams. However the main synoptic boost for the deepening system is forecast to occur later today as a strong cut-off low phases with the larger positively tilted mid-level trough digging southeastward across the central United States. This will in turn amplify the already robust jet-steak over the southeastern United States which will allow for a second surface low pressure system to develop just offshore of South & North Carolina and intensify as it accelerates to the northeast. This strengthening/deepening of the dual areas of low pressure and the prorogation of the warm front boundary is what is responsible for our weather today.

As the surface low offshore of the mid-Atlantic accelerates northeastward in tandem with the mid-level trough, a cold front will accelerate eastward across the Gulf during the day on Monday. Model guidance continues to trend later with the frontal passage progression which has maintained the continued trend over the past 48 hours which has been a continued slight increase in forecasted high temperatures with the latest forecast update. High temperatures on Monday afternoon are now forecast to range from the upper 70s across the northwestern half of South Florida to values in the mid 80s across most of the east coast metro. It is worth noting once again that the NBM 75th and NBM 90th percentiles depict the potential of high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 across the eastern half of South Florida on Monday afternoon. The potential exists for high temperatures to come very close to, tie, or even set new maximum temperature records on Monday along the east coast of South Florida. Even with the mean forecasted temperature values in the middle 80s, apparent (feels-like) temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the eastern half of the region on Monday afternoon.

A narrow pool of deeper atmospheric moisture along the boundary may result in the potential for a broken line of showers along the frontal boundary on Monday and the latest forecast continues to depict a 20-50% chance of precipitation across most of the region accordingly with the highest chances favoring southwestern Florida earlier in the day. A developing pressure gradient behind the frontal boundary will result in gusty conditions immediately after the frontal passage, especially along the coast and across our local waters.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

The long advertised and awaited cold blast arrives across the region on Monday night as cold air advection and brisk northerly winds send temperatures dropping sharply. By daybreak Tuesday morning, forecast temperatures are currently forecast to be 30 to 40 degrees colder than the forecasted high temperature on Monday. With the delayed frontal passage, the forecast for Tuesday morning has trended slightly warmer overnight but still depicts an area of upper 30s just west of Lake Okeechobee, low to mid 40s across the Naples metro, and the upper 40s to low 50s along the east coast of South Florida. With a later progression of the frontal passage, surface wind speeds are forecast to remain elevated overnight. The combination of brisk northerly winds and dropping temperatures will result in the potential of apparent temperatures in the 30s across the western half of South Florida with apparent temperature values below freezing possible across communities in inland southwestern Florida on Tuesday morning. Additional alterations (colder or warmer) in the forecast for Tuesday morning could still be in play as changes in frontal timing will be key in what transpires.

With the dry and continental airmass filtering into the region via northerly flow during the day on Tuesday, high temperatures are only currently forecast to reach the low to upper 60s, which is well below average compared to seasonal norms discussed above. Aloft, mid- level flow will become zonal in nature as several lobes of embedded mid-level vorticity continue to advect across the eastern and central United States. High pressure at the surface will remain in firm control during this time frame as winds gradually lessen as the pressure gradient slowly weakens. Temperatures will moderate slightly on Wednesday, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s across the region.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, Most model members remain in agreement of a very deep and robust trough digging southward across the southeastern United States in tandem with a reinforcing cold front at the surface. With the arrival of the front across South Florida on Thursday, cold air advection and the dry airmass will keep the status quo of below average temperatures in the forecast as forecast high temperatures will again struggle to reach the mid to upper 60s. As the cold front clears the region and the mid-level trough accelerates to the northeast, a robust and anomalous strong 850mb high will set up across the southeastern United States. Cluster analysis continues to depict forecasted 850mb heights being below the 5th percentile compared to historical norms for this time of year, highlighting just how robust the high pressure (and pool of arctic air) may be across the region. The placement of surface ridging across the southeastern United States and prolonged northerly flow may set the stage for the continuation of below normal diurnal and nocturnal temperatures into the upcoming weekend.

The timing of all the synoptic features mentioned above, overnight wind speeds, nightly cloud cover, and other parameters will dictate which night of the week is coldest across South Florida. Those details will become more clear as we move forward in time, readers are encouraged to stay up to date with the latest forecast as the week progresses.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with breezy southerly winds and gusts up to 25 kts possible ahead of a frontal passage. Patchy to dense fog is forecast to develop over SW FL and over the Gulf waters, which could lead to reduced vis/cigs for KAPF early Monday morning. As such, went ahead and included a TEMPO for MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds shift out of the WNW tomorrow as the front moves across the area.

MARINE

Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Winds will begin to veer to a southerly direction across all waters this morning, and remain out of a southerly direction today, enhancing in strength to SCEC (small craft exercise caution conditons) levels across the Atlantic waters during the afternoon hours of today. A period of prolonged hazardous marine conditions is forecast to materialize across all local waters beginning on Monday and persisting through the end of the week as brisk northerly winds prevail across the entire region.

BEACHES

Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

A high risk of rip currents will develop at Palm Beach County beaches today as south-southeasterly winds enhance along the coast this afternoon. A moderate risk of rip currents will also develop at Broward & Miami-Dade county beaches. The risk of rip currents will decrease on Monday before once again becoming elevated on Tuesday as winds enhance and remain elevated behind a strong cold front. Aside from the threat of rip currents, hazardous surf conditions may also occur along both coasts, especially during the early to middle portion of the work week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

The combination of gusty northerly winds and low humidities behind a strong cold front on Monday may set the stage for periods of enhanced fire behavior across portions of the region each afternoon throughout much of the upcoming work-week. While recent rainfall across portions of inland South Florida may aid in a brief moistening of dry fuels, the entirety of South Florida remains in a moderate to severe drought with several locations seeing negligible rainfall over the past several weeks.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 71 85 52 68 / 10 20 0 0 West Kendall 67 86 49 69 / 10 20 0 0 Opa-Locka 70 86 52 69 / 10 20 0 0 Homestead 70 86 52 70 / 10 20 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 85 52 67 / 10 20 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 85 52 67 / 10 20 0 0 Pembroke Pines 69 87 52 69 / 10 20 0 0 West Palm Beach 69 85 51 66 / 10 20 0 0 Boca Raton 70 86 51 68 / 10 30 0 0 Naples 67 76 45 64 / 40 50 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.