textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 704 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Shower and thunderstorms chances remain elevated through the end of the weekend, and could result in localized flooding and strong to severe impacts each afternoon.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend. However, a frontal passage Monday-Tuesday could bring much cooler temperatures mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Wet and unsettled conditions will continue across South Florida this weekend as a stationary front remains draped over the area. Plentiful moisture already pooled along this front on Friday, and will continue to do so this weekend as winds remain out of the south-southeast. Sounding PWATs early this morning were hovering in the 1.3-1.5 inch range, well above the 75th to 90th percentiles for this time of year, and forecast soundings suggest moisture will continue to advect within the low to mid levels of the atmosphere today and tomorrow.

The presence of the front and the warm, moist air mass in place will support enhanced instability and convective activity across much of the region, with CAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg and 700-500mb lapse rates > 6 C/km. However, meager support aloft will mean impacts today will remain generally sub-severe in nature, and the main concern will be localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. High-res models support activity starting to develop along the East Coast as early as 11 AM, but most likely being maximized between 3-8 PM. There is a slight chance (20-30%) that some of those showers could produce an inch or so of rainfall, with a 1 in 10 chance of some spots getting 2-4 inches over the 24 hour period. Occasional lightning, some gusty winds and small hail (pea-sized) could also be possible with any stronger storm where residence time within the hail growth zone is maximized.

On Sunday, a couple of changes in the synoptic pattern will help support a greater severe threat across the region, especially during the evening and overnight period. Aloft, a subtle upper-level shortwave will eject from the mean flow and descend across the Florida peninsula, while a deepening trough starts to slide over the Plains. Near the surface, a stout low pressure cyclone will develop over the Great Lakes area, with an attendant strong cold front overspreading the Plains. Locally, the stationary, now weakening front, gradually shift northward through the day before washing out. Moisture advection will continue, with greater moistening along the entire layer and PWAT values continuing to exceed the highest percentiles for this time of year.

All together, this setup will support more widespread convective development over the region, starting mid-morning and continuing intermittently through the day. During this time frame, the greatest threat will remain heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding, with accumulations of 1-2 inches possible once again within that 24 hour period. Furthermore, forcing from the shortwave and significant cooling aloft will promote additional storm growth late in the evening and overnight, with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather across the region. Forecast soundings from the HREF members show a very marginal threat for hail up to 1 inch in size severe damaging winds in the evening and overnight. Meager shear will help limit the chance for tornadic activity, at least as far as the current forecast goes.

With continued southerly to southeasterly flow and moisture advection over the area, temperatures will remain above average, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The aforementioned strong synoptic complex (consisting of a deep upper level trough and stout surface low and cold front) will progress eastward as we head into next week, with the surface low forecast to move over the Great Lakes on Monday and over the Canadian expanse on Tuesday. This will help push the cold front southward across the southeast CONUS and along the FL peninsula Monday into Tuesday. This frontal passage will continue to support widespread convective activity on Monday, with the continued potential for a marginal severe weather threat. A cooler airmass moves in behind the front through the middle of the week, with temperatures topping off in the low 70s, and potentially dropping into the 40s and 50s overnight Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will also surge behind the front, with breezy conditions expected mid week.

The overall atmospheric profile will cool although deep moisture will not fully escape as PWATs remain elevated and the atmospheric column becomes nearly saturated. Thus, muggy conditions and slight chances for showers will continue through the middle of next week and perhaps into late week but it will not be anywhere near as active and chaotic as this weekend is expected to be.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 704 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Light and variable winds early this morning becoming SE around 10 kts this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze developing at APF. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE

Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this weekend as a frontal boundary remains stalled out over the area and a low pressure system pushes across the area. These elevated rain chances will persist into early next week as another front pushes cross the region. Winds could surge behind that front, ushering in another period of deteriorating marine conditions.

Seas will range from 3-5 ft through the short term period. Light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds will persist over the weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist for Palm Beach county beaches today. This risk could could increase for the entire East Coast on Sunday as winds increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 83 71 82 73 / 60 50 60 30 West Kendall 85 67 84 69 / 60 40 60 30 Opa-Locka 85 71 83 72 / 60 50 60 30 Homestead 85 71 83 73 / 60 40 50 30 Fort Lauderdale 82 70 80 73 / 60 50 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 82 71 80 73 / 60 50 60 40 Pembroke Pines 85 71 83 73 / 60 50 60 40 West Palm Beach 82 69 83 72 / 60 50 60 40 Boca Raton 82 70 82 73 / 60 50 60 40 Naples 84 69 85 71 / 40 40 60 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ063-066- 067-070-071.

AM...None. GM...None.