textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Mainly dry and breezy conditions will remain in place across most of South Florida today. - Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters through tonight as winds and seas remain elevated.

- A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

A mid level trough will gradually slide offshore into the western Atlantic today which will allow for a mid level ridge to gradually build back over the region tonight into Wednesday. At the surface, a rather strong area of high pressure centered over the Southeast will gradually slide to the east off into the Atlantic today through Wednesday. As a dissipating frontal boundary continues to slide further to the south across the Florida Straits, the pressure gradient across South Florida will slowly begin to decrease as today progresses. While breezy conditions may persist especially across the east coast through this afternoon, east northeasterly wind flow will gradually subside heading into tonight and Wednesday.

The combination of a northwesterly wind flow aloft combined with strong surface high pressure continuing to build into the region from the northeast will allow for a much drier air mass to work into South Florida today. The latest forecast model soundings show PWAT values continuing to fall and these values will drop to around 0.6 inches across the Lake Okeechobee region to 0.9 inches across the far southern areas of the Peninsula. As the wind flow becomes more easterly heading into Wednesday, a slight increase in moisture advection may take place, however, most areas across South Florida will see PWAT values remain below an inch during this time frame. While most areas will remain rain free today and Wednesday, an isolated passing shower cannot be entirely ruled out especially across the immediate east coast during this time frame. Any shower that does develop will be low topped and rather short lived.

High temperatures today will generally rise into the mid to upper 70s across most areas while low temperatures tonight range from the mid 50s west of Lake Okeechobee to the mid to upper 60s across the east coast metro areas. High temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly warmer as the wind flow become more easterly and they will rise into the upper 70s across the east coast and into the lower 80s across Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 125 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Mid level ridging holds strong across the region on Thursday, however, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite remains in relatively good agreement with bringing a quick moving mid level trough across most of the Eastern Seaboard heading into Friday. This mid level trough will briefly flatten out the ridge over South Florida during this time frame, however, guidance also remains in good agreement with keeping the trough axis off to the north across Northern and Central Florida. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Great Lakes region and into the Deep South on Thursday. This front will quickly sweep across the Eastern Seaboard and extend into the Florida Peninsula as Friday progresses.

With the best dynamics remaining to the north of the region, this front will be in a weakening state as it approaches the area during the end of the week. Uncertainty does rise a bit during the end of the week in regards to the timing of the frontal passage as the GFS guidance suite shows a faster moving front then the ECMWF guidance suite. In any event, moisture advection will be taking place across the region as winds veer and become south southeasterly on Thursday, and then eventually southwesterly heading into Friday. With the best instability remaining well to the north, thunderstorm chances will remain very limited out ahead of the front. However, a low end chance of showers will be introduced on Thursday and these chances could linger through the the end of the week depending on the exact timing and location of the front during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures through the end of the week will be rather warm out ahead of the front and will range between the lower 80s across the east coast to the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, mid level ridging looks to reestablish itself across South Florida as high pressure builds back into the region from the north on Saturday and Sunday. With the dissipating frontal boundary still nearby or just off to the south, there will be still some lingering lower level moisture in place which could spark off some isolated shower activity as the pressure gradient increases and winds become east northeasterly again. These chances would remain on the lower end of things and they would be mainly confined to the eastern half of the region. High temperatures over the weekend will generally remain in the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. ENE winds will remain around 10 kts through the overnight hours across most terminals. These winds will increase and will range from 10 to 15 kts on Tuesday afternoon with gusts around 20 kts across the east coast terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 125 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters today as a fresh to strong east northeasterly breeze remains in place along with a lingering northeasterly swell. The winds and the swell will gradually subside over the Atlantic waters towards the middle of the week. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh east northeasterly breeze will remain in place through the middle of the week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 6 to 9 feet through this afternoon before gradually diminishing by Wednesday. Seas across the Gulf waters will generally remain between 3 to 5 feet today before diminishing tonight into Wednesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 125 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches through Thursday as persistent onshore flow continues. With a northeasterly swell lingering today, the surf especially across Palm Beach County could remain elevated as 4 to 6 foot waves remain possible in the surf zone today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 76 66 78 70 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 77 62 79 65 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 76 65 79 68 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 77 65 79 68 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 74 67 77 70 / 0 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 74 67 77 70 / 0 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 76 65 79 67 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 74 65 78 69 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 76 66 79 70 / 0 0 10 10 Naples 79 60 81 63 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GMZ656-657- 676.