textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across portions of South Florida through the early portion of the week.

- Isolated minor coastal flooding will remain possible across the east coast with this mornings high tide.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase during the second half of the week as a strong cold front approaches and moves through the region. Behind the front, the coolest airmass of the season so far could push over the region by next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Weak mid level ridging in the Eastern Gulf will gradually move over the region today and into Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure centered off to the north will continue to slowly push eastward during this time frame. These two features will be the ones driving the weather pattern over South Florida through the early portion of the week. In general, rather light easterly winds will prevail across most areas today and Tuesday. This easterly wind flow will aid in lower level moisture advection during this time frame which will cause PWAT values to slowly and gradually rise across South Florida. While plenty of dry air will remain in place across the mid levels, there will be just enough lower level moisture in place to support a low end chance of shower development each afternoon. Shower chances will be mainly driven by the development of the sea breezes each afternoon. Any showers that do develop will remain low topped, however, some of the stronger shower activity will have the potential to produce brief heavy downpours, especially over areas where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundary collisions take place. High temperatures today and Tuesday will rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas, however, upper 80s will be possible across portions of Southwest Florida each afternoon mainly along and south of Alligator Alley.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Heading towards the middle of the week, the weak mid level ridging shifts into the western Atlantic as a mid level shortwave passes over the Southeast. While this shortwave will remain well off to the north, it will turn the mid level winds more southwesterly and will begin to draw in some deeper moisture over the region. At the surface, high pressure over the area will gradually begin to weaken as it pulls further into the western Atlantic. This will also cause a surface wind shift as well making the general synoptic wind flow light out of the south Southeast during this time frame. Since the shortwave will remain pretty far up to the north, the main forcing mechanism for shower development will be the sea breeze boundaries on Wednesday afternoon and evening. With 500mb heights lowering and some colder air moving in aloft, instability will gradually increase across the region which could allow for some thunderstorm development later on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. While chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain rather low, it cannot be entirely ruled out especially where mesoscale boundary collisions take place. The stronger thunderstorms could contain heavy downpours and gusty winds. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas, however, some upper 80s will be possible across portions of Southwest Florida.

For the second half of the week, an amplifying mid level trough will rapidly push across the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday and will remain parked in place heading into Friday. At the surface, developing low pressure will gradually move through the Mid Atlantic region and then off the Northeastern Coastline as the end of the week progresses. The cold front associated with this system will extend southwestward and gradually approach and move through South Florida during the end of this week. As the cold front approaches, the pressure gradient will tighten causing winds to increase out of the southwest on Thursday. While confidence is increasing that this front will be on the stronger side, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite still remains in disagreement on the timing of the frontal passage across South Florida.

The ECMWF suite still shows a faster and more progressive solution bringing the front through Thursday night into early Friday morning. The GFS camps show a bit of slower solution, holding off the frontal passage till later Friday morning. This will have direct impacts on the sensible weather across the region especially heading into Friday. The ECMWF solutions would feature a quick moving front, with lower chances of showers and thunderstorms as the best dynamics race well off to the northeast. The GFS solutions would favor higher chances of showers and thunderstorms lingering later into Friday morning especially across southern areas. The current forecast as it stands now increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday into Friday morning. If trends start to favor the slower frontal passage solutions, showers and thunderstorms could linger into Friday afternoon as well across portions of the region. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

Behind the front, strong high pressure will build in from the north as winds rapidly shift and increase out of the west northwest heading into the upcoming weekend. This will allow for strong cold air advection to take place and bring in much drier air as well for Saturday and Sunday. Confidence continues to increase that this will be the coolest airmass of the fall season so far across South Florida and temperatures will be below normal through the upcoming weekend. This will continue to be monitored as the rest of the week progresses.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditons expected for the forecast period. Winds will become easterly into this afternoon and range from 5-10 kts, with the exception of APF which will see a westerly Gulf breeze set up. Confidence regarding isolated shower activity remains low, depending on where the seabreeze sets up this afternoon. VCSH or VCTS may be introduced in future amendments. Winds will return to light and variable overnight for all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

A gentle to moderate east northeasterly breeze will gradually become more easterly as the early portion of the week progresses across most of the local waters. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters where winds may become more northwesterly this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 1 to 3 feet through the early portion of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Some isolated to scattered shower activity will remain possible mainly over the Atlantic waters through the early portion of the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for the Palm Beaches through the early portion of the week. Some isolated minor coastal flooding may occur across along the east coast with the high tide cycle this morning due to the King Tides associated with the new moon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 84 74 84 73 / 30 20 20 10 West Kendall 85 73 84 73 / 30 20 30 0 Opa-Locka 85 73 85 73 / 30 20 20 10 Homestead 84 74 84 74 / 30 20 30 0 Fort Lauderdale 83 73 82 73 / 20 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 83 73 83 73 / 20 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 86 72 85 72 / 20 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 84 71 83 71 / 10 20 20 0 Boca Raton 83 73 82 73 / 20 20 20 0 Naples 85 71 85 72 / 10 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.