textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches through the rest of the weekend. - A moderate to strong easterly breeze will bring continued hazardous conditions to the Atlantic waters through Sunday afternoon.

- An unsettled pattern is becoming increasingly likely next week with periods of gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible across portions of South Florida.

UPDATE

Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Previous forecast remains on track as a foci of low-topped shower activity has gradually congealed along the gulf sea-breeze this afternoon. Diurnal mixing of drier air down to the surface has limited/inhibited the spatial extent of these showers, however a low-end chance still remains for an isolated storm or two directly along the coast or just offshore during the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening hours. A low-level lapse rate gradient, 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE, and the localized ascent could support one or two robust strong cores although several limiting factors remain in play. Main threat if a tall enough core does materialize would be small hail and gusty winds as the inverted V signature remains in recent ACARS soundings from RSW.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The surface high pressure will preside over South Florida for one more day before beginning to break down on Sunday, maintaining the brisk and steady easterly flow across the region. The development of diurnal sea breeze circulations and diurnal heating will continue to be the primary influencers in some isolated shower activity and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms. 500mb temperatures are still very cold for this time of year (-11 to -12C), which will support steeper mid-level lapse rates that can cause a core or two to become taller and result in downdraft potential given the drier air aloft and an inverted-V being present on many of the hi-res model soundings. Nevertheless, with high pressure dominance this is expected to be an extremely isolated threat as it relates to storm potential. With the ongoing easterly regime, highest rain chances are likely to favor the Gulf coast areas during the afternoon hours with chances for some isolated activity in the morning hours near the Atlantic coast.

For the second half of the weekend, a more unsettled pattern begins to take shape. The previously mentioned robust trough traversing across the central U.S. will approach and advect across the Eastern Seaboard by the end of day on Sunday. An attendant cold front to this trough will be advecting southwards along the leading edge of the trough axis, but will start waning in strength as it mixes with a warmer environment in Northern Florida. However, we will begin to see some deeper moisture return occurring both from the tropics of the Caribbean and from the front forcing some moisture from the central U.S. southwards. All in all, PWATs rise to around 1.3-1.6" for Sunday afternoon and evening when the frontal boundary starts to slow down in the vicinity of northern Florida. As the deeper moisture starts to settle in, the potential for enhanced convection will be along the sea breezes and any boundary collisions (sea breezes and outflows) on Sunday. Convective parameters are not popping out in a way that supports much severe activity, but there is always a chance for one or two storms to become stronger than the rest, particularly among boundary collisions. These collisions are most likely to occur over interior and Gulf coast areas as easterly flow continues for most of Sunday, which is where the highest PoPs (50-60%) are on Sunday. East coast metro areas are closer to 40%.

High temperatures for the next couple of days will still be in the 80s with the hotter temperatures (upper 80s) being felt across the Gulf coast areas under the persistent easterly wind regime.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR prevails for the 06Z TAF period. Gusty easterly winds will continue for another day today with frequent gusts to 20-25 kts. A few quick moving isolated SHRA are also possible through the day, but should not cause much impact.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR prevails for the 06Z TAF period. Gusty easterly winds will continue for another day today with frequent gusts to 20-25 kts. A few quick moving isolated SHRA are also possible through the day, but should not cause much impact.

MARINE

Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A fresh to strong easterly breeze will continue across the Atlantic waters through today and tonight before starting to decrease on Sunday. During this same time frame, a moderate breeze will be observed over the Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters and Biscayne Bay through this evening due to sustained winds expected at 20-25 kts. A few showers are possible today with increasing rain chances beginning Sunday and into next week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will mainly be in the 4-6 ft range while Gulf seas are forecast to remain in the 2-3 ft range.

BEACHES

Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The high risk for dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches through this weekend as gusty onshore winds persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 82 71 83 / 20 40 30 60 West Kendall 69 84 67 85 / 10 40 30 60 Opa-Locka 71 83 70 85 / 20 40 30 60 Homestead 72 82 71 83 / 20 40 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 72 80 72 81 / 20 40 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 72 80 71 82 / 20 40 30 60 Pembroke Pines 72 84 72 86 / 20 40 30 60 West Palm Beach 71 81 70 82 / 20 30 30 60 Boca Raton 72 80 71 82 / 20 40 30 60 Naples 69 86 68 85 / 10 50 30 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.