textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 741 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Scattered to numerous storms possible today and Saturday, and some could be strong. Best chance will come during the afternoon and early evening hours.

- Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

As high pressure across the western Atlantic dominates the synoptic pattern at mid and low levels, a TUTT begins to approach the area from the Southeast today at the upper levels. This will facilitate the departure of the dry and dusty air mass that became entrenched across South Florida for the past two days. Moisture begins to increase through the day with PWATs approaching 2 inches by this evening. CAMs depict a general increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across southern portions of the area associated with the TUTT with activity pushing north and northwest through the day where maximum coverage will probably be realized across interior and Southwest Florida this evening. 500mb temps are poised to cool off a touch from the 6-7 C range into the 8-9 C range by this afternoon, which coupled with the enhanced divergence aloft from the TUTT, could lead to a few more vigorous updrafts today. While conditions were hot under the dry air mass, heat index values have the potential to be even higher today as more low level moisture advects from the southeast. A few areas may see relief especially during the afternoon and evening with developing showers and storms, however, a heat advisory will be in effect for all of South Florida today and could possibly be issued on Saturday as well. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 70s in far interior Florida however they will struggle to dip below 80 along the coast. Elevated rain chances linger into Saturday as the TUTT continues to progress westward and PWATs remain in the 1.7-2 inch range but certainly not a washout by any means. Highest rain chances will be across interior locations and Southwest areas of the region.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

High pressure at the surface is poised to remain draped across the western Atlantic which will maintain southeasterly flow through the weekend. This will also advect an additional plume of Saharan dust across the area by mid-weekend into early next week. The aforementioned TUTT will weaken and continue to advect westward away from the region on Sunday, as a drier Saharan air mass is advected across the area. PWATs begin to drop back into the 1.3-1.4 inch range on Sunday and Monday which should limit the convective potential towards the end of the weekend into early next week. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40% through Wednesday. Hot conditions are expected to continue through the period, especially for locations that don't receive relief from afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid- upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Additional head advisories will be likely through the remainder of the weekend and through much of the upcoming work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 741 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Isolated to scattered convection is expected in the vicinity of southeast Florida terminals beginning around noon and lasting through the afternoon. During the mid-to-late afternoon time- frame, there is about a 30% chance for a thunderstorm to impact terminals in the same area. However, the stronger and more intense storms are likely to develop over the interior and SWFL. There is a high probability of thunderstorm impacts at APF, with a heightened threat for microbursts towards the FL west coast. With greater moisture lingering into Saturday, a fairly similar setup is expected for tomorrow. However, the greatest concentration of thunderstorms will setup across the interior rather than at either coast. As some additional drier air works into the region on Sunday, rain chances will decrease the likelihood of thunderstorm impacts at all terminals. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR will prevail.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Moderate east-southeast flow prevails through the upcoming weekend. There is an increased chance for showers and storms across local waters today and Saturday which may lead to erratic winds and waves at times. Outside of any convective activity, wave heights will remain at 3 feet of less across local Gulf and Atlantic waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 93 81 93 80 / 40 20 20 0 West Kendall 94 78 94 77 / 40 20 20 0 Opa-Locka 94 80 95 80 / 40 20 20 0 Homestead 93 80 93 80 / 50 20 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 92 82 93 81 / 40 20 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 92 81 93 80 / 40 20 30 0 Pembroke Pines 95 82 96 81 / 40 20 30 0 West Palm Beach 93 80 93 79 / 30 10 60 10 Boca Raton 91 81 92 80 / 40 20 40 0 Naples 96 78 93 79 / 80 30 40 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None. GM...None.