textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 813 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Heat indices between 105-110 possible today. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening favoring interior and eastern areas of South Florida. - Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

An active weather pattern will begin today and continue on Saturday with the weakening of the high pressure over the area, which allows for deeper tropical moisture to filter into SoFlo. Latest NHC forecast has a 20 percent chance of tropical development for the area of disturbed weather over the NE Gulf. But regardless of the outcome, NBM/GFS show agreement in a developing trough around the eastern Gulf and west Florida, which will contribute additional moisture into the region as it migrates NE across the northern half of the peninsula.

Rain chances will increase through the short term with PWATs expected to jump back into the 2.0-2.3" range, along with atmospheric conditions becoming significantly more unstable. CAPE/DCAPE values are expected in the 2000/1000 J/KG respectively, along with steeper lapse rates. This overall setup will provide added buoyancy to support stronger updrafts, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain each day. CAM and ensemble solutions also suggest some weak deep-layer shear across the area associated with the developing trough, which may also contribute to stronger cell development each afternoon. Localized flooding is also a possibility, especially with slow-moving storms and repeated bouts of heavy downpours over the same location.

Overall flow will gradually shift to the WNW, which will likely keep the sea breeze convergence close or right over the eastern metro areas where the best chances of thunderstorms will reside this afternoon. POPs/Wx coverage jumps into the 60-70% range with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, and potential for some strong to severe cells.

Heat-related impacts continue today, although max temps over the Lake region may cool down a couple of degrees with increasing cloud cover and shower activity. The metro areas should experience enough sunshine before the active weather develops, allowing for heat index values to again approach or hit advisory levels (105-110F range). A Heat Advisory is once again in effect from 11 am to 7 pm EDT, focusing on coastal metro areas and portions of interior Collier county. People should avoid risking heat illness impacts by remaining hydrated and in cool locations, especially during the afternoon peak hours.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Latest long range model solutions keep rain chances in place through early next week with overall model consensus showing a trough and potential associated low lingering around the eastern Gulf and northern Florida. But the air mass across SoFlo seems to begin to rebound from the wet conditions with a gradual decrease in shower activity. Max POPs/Wx coverage on latest NBM are now coming in the 30-40% through much of the work week, with Tuesday as the driest day.

Sea breezes and outflow boundary collisions will remain as the focal points for deeper convection to develop. Therefore, there will be continued good support for stronger, taller storms especially with sea breezes and boundary collisions. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts, hail, lightning strikes and localized flooding.

Despite the spike in rain and thunderstorms, there should be enough sunshine for keeping max temps in the 90s each day. Heat advisory potential will be explored each day. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 813 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue across all TAF sites. Initial L/V flow will shift to a primarily westerly flow for KAPF and SSE flow for eastern terminal sites as the Gulf breeze picks up. TEMPOs are in place for all eastern metro terminals due to high confidence for afternoon convective development, with MVFR conditions expected. Gusty and erratic winds are expected with any storm. Winds will return to light and variable overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 412 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A moderate southeasterly breeze will continue across the Atlantic waters, while a WNW flow will prevail over the Gulf waters today. Winds will gradually become more south-southwesterly across all local waters by Saturday as an area of disturbed weather develops over the northeastern Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters today, becoming more numerous during the weekend. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 95 79 92 80 / 60 20 30 0 West Kendall 95 76 93 77 / 60 20 30 0 Opa-Locka 96 79 93 79 / 60 20 30 0 Homestead 95 79 92 80 / 40 10 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 94 80 92 81 / 60 30 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 95 80 92 80 / 60 30 30 10 Pembroke Pines 97 80 94 81 / 60 20 30 0 West Palm Beach 94 78 92 79 / 70 30 40 10 Boca Raton 93 79 91 79 / 60 30 40 10 Naples 91 78 90 79 / 30 30 50 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068>070-072-074- 168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.