textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 642 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 - Heat Advisory for all of South FL today. Heat impacts will linger into the upcoming week.

- Stay tuned for further information on the developing heat episode, and be prepared to take precautionary/preventative actions in the coming days.

UPDATE

Issued at 107 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The forecast remains on track today as a dry airmass containing Saharan dust overspreads the region. Satellite imagery and sounding data depict a dramatic drying out in the mid layers of the atmosphere, with PWATs dropping to the 1.2-1.4 inch range starting early morning, well below the average for this time of year. With ridging aloft supporting subsidence over the area, and warm temperatures extending along the atmospheric column, convection will really struggle to develop today, especially in light of the limited moisture over the area. This scenario is captured well by NBM, which models rain chances below 15% for the rest of the day.

While convection is not forecast for the day, some benign cumulus development could provide brief periods of shade across the region. But the prevailing clear conditions, combined with the light flow and presence of Saharan dust will continue to promote extremely hot conditions across the area today. Temperatures across the East Coast are forecast to rise to the mid 90s, potentially nearing record criteria. Meanwhile across the southwest coast and over the interior, high temps could approach the high 90s! Heat indices will hover between 105-110 all afternoon as well, so a Heat Advisory will remain in effect.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Mostly dry and hot weather is expected today with areas of surface high pressure over the Gulf and western Atlantic, and upper level ridging aloft. Saharan dust filters into the region today and Monday, which will aid in additional suppression of convection. Outside of a slight chance of late day showers and storms around the lake region and interior South FL, most of the area will remain dry today. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 90s across the metro, to mid and upper 90s over the interior. A spot or two in the Everglades could even reach triple digits during the afternoon. Dewpoints will be a tad lower today with the drier air in place, however peak heat indices are still expected to reach 105-110 this afternoon. After consulting with neighboring offices, a Heat Advisory will be in effect for the entire area from 11 AM to 7 PM.

Mainly clear tonight over the interior with scattered cumulus near the coast. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s across the interior to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

Moisture starts to increase in the low levels on Monday as the low level flow becomes more southerly. Saharan dust will still help suppress convection, however expect a bit more shower and thunderstorm activity from mid afternoon through early evening, especially along western portions of the east coast metro and interior South FL, however PoPs will still run well below normal for this time of year. High temps will again be in the low to mid 90s over the metro and mid to upper 90s over the interior. Max heat indices will again reach 105-110 during the afternoon. Headlines will almost certainly be needed for Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

There's some hint of an upper level low lingering near South FL Tuesday into Wednesday, and the higher concentrations of Saharan dust should start pushing south of the area, so PoPs will slowly start to increase as the week progresses closer to climatological norms. By late in the week the ridge weakens and an upper level trough starts to dig into the eastern US, further increasing moisture across the region. PoPs by the beginning of next weekend should be right around climatological norms, with the highest each day favoring inland and SW FL.

Heat will continue to be a story all week with temperatures remaining above normal throughout the period and heat indices flirting with advisory criteria each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Light and variable winds overnight. Tomorrow, light southeasterly winds to 10 kts returns, except at KAPF where a westerly breeze will develop. Very little chances of convection or impacts to the sites on the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Gentle east to southeast breeze across the Atlantic waters today, with a gentle westerly breeze in the Gulf. Seas 2 ft or less. Mostly benign conditions remain through at least early this upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 96 79 97 / 0 10 10 10 West Kendall 76 95 76 97 / 0 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 79 96 79 97 / 0 10 0 10 Homestead 77 95 77 96 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 95 79 96 / 0 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 80 96 80 96 / 0 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 79 96 80 97 / 0 10 0 10 West Palm Beach 78 96 79 96 / 0 10 10 20 Boca Raton 79 94 79 95 / 0 10 0 20 Naples 78 92 78 92 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.