textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 720 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Strong winds with the incoming frontal boundary is expected to lead to increasingly hazardous marine and beach conditions for the next few days. Elevated seas and near Gale force winds will be observed.

- Drier conditions for most of the region today, but some shower activity is still expected mostly across portions of SE Florida.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Today is expected to be somewhat of a transitional day as we see the weakening frontal boundary move through the area and eventually stalling over the Florida Straits. Currently, coastal convergence along the Broward and Palm Beach county coasts is supporting ongoing development of rain showers that are producing periods of moderate to heavy rain. This has been enhancing the flood risk in these late night hours, but this threat should end once winds both over the water and land areas become uniform out of the NE/NNE today. However, the risk for localized flash flooding will continue until then as we have seen 3-5" of rain fall in a 1-2 hour period of time and more redevelopment continuing to occur.

The front is expected to push through the area by this afternoon with winds veering to the NE both over land and over the local waters. With blustery winds and gusts to around 30 mph expected consistently today, along with stronger winds over the waters, speed convergence could result in some weaker variety shower activity across Southeast Florida. Weak mid-level ridging spilling over the area from the Gulf should help cap convection to an extent, but we also will still have broader upper level troughing in the vicinity that can aid in additional convection. Therefore, while PoPs still remain high over Southeast Florida (70-80%) we are not expecting shower and storm activity today to result in an overall risk for flash flooding. Instead, the risk for flash flooding will be highly localized. General QPF over Southeast Florida is forecast at 1-2" with 90th percentile values (a reasonable worst case) at 2-3". Neither of these situations will cause high flooding concerns.

Heading into early this week, drier air will continue to filter into the region under the NE flow as PWATs fall to 1.3-1.5" or less across the region, which will create a more stable environment that leads to mostly dry conditions. A few isolated showers are still possible by way of speed/friction convergence, but any convection overall will be meager on Monday.

High temperatures today and tomorrow are generally expected in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows Sunday night are expected in the upper 60s to low 70s for Southwest Florida and the low to mid 70s across Southeast Florida.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Upper-level troughing will remain anchored across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through much of the week, while surface high pressure builds across the Southeast US. Meanwhile, a strong low- pressure system is expected to meander off the Eastern Seaboard. The resulting tight pressure gradient will support breezy and gusty north-northeasterly winds across South Florida through mid-week. Most global guidance suites suggest this pressure gradient will begin to relax towards the latter half of the week as the offshore low-pressure system gradually lifts away, though persistent north- easterly flow will remain established across South Florida.

In terms of moisture, PWAT values are forecast to dip into the 1.1- 1.3 inch range through mid-week as dry air continues to filter into the region. Moisture values will gradually recover toward more seasonal levels of 1.4-1.5 inches by late week. With low-level convergence maximized along the Atlantic coast, isolated to scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms could develop each day, favoring the East Coast coastal zones, while the rest of South Florida should expect mostly dry conditions through mid-week.

The primary hazards through most of the week will remain marine and coastal concerns along the Atlantic beaches, including a high risk of rip currents as well as rough surf that could prompt beach erosion. Heading into Friday, model guidance hints at a mid/upper- level disturbance digging southward toward the region, which could support an uptick in convective activity and coverage across the eastern half of South Florida heading into the weekend.

Temperatures will trend slightly below climatological averages toward the end of the week. Daytime highs will generally start in the mid to upper 80s, cooling slightly into the low to mid 80s by late week. Overnight lows will range from the lower 70s along the East Coast to the mid to upper 60s across the interior and SW Florida.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Sub-VFR ceilings associated with a frontal passage are expected to lift gradually through the morning hours across most terminals. North-northeasterly winds will continue to increase through the day, reaching 12-15 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts. Isolated to scattered shower and storm activity may impact east coast sites through the afternoon. Winds remain gusty through the rest of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Hazardous conditions are expected today and into early this week as a frontal boundary pushes through the area. Strong winds at 20-30 kts with gusts occasionally reaching near Gale force are expected through Monday before starting to decrease mid-week. In addition, seas will rise to 10-14 feet in the Atlantic by the end of the day today and 6-8 feet in the Gulf. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Wednesday across all local waters, including Biscayne Bay and Lake Okeechobee.

BEACHES

Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

A high risk for rip currents is in effect for all Atlantic coast beaches as strong northeasterly winds set up later today and into early this week. In addition, waves will rise substantially and lead to a High Surf Advisory beginning today for the Palm beaches and Tuesday for the Broward beaches. Large breaking waves of 7-9 feet will be possible during the hours of the High Surf Advisories.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 82 75 84 73 / 80 30 20 20 West Kendall 82 74 84 72 / 70 30 20 10 Opa-Locka 83 75 85 73 / 80 20 20 10 Homestead 83 75 85 73 / 80 50 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 82 75 84 73 / 80 30 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 82 75 84 73 / 70 30 30 20 Pembroke Pines 82 74 84 72 / 80 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 82 74 84 72 / 40 20 40 30 Boca Raton 82 75 84 73 / 60 30 30 30 Naples 83 70 85 68 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ610-630-650- 651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.