textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

- Very warm for the rest of the weekend with the potential for record high temperatures each afternoon across the east coast metro areas.

- A strong cold front will pass through South Florida early next week bringing the coldest temperatures of the season to the region Monday night into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

In general, mid level zonal flow this afternoon will start to give way to an approaching mid level longwave trough as Sunday progresses. At the surface, South Florida will remain on the western periphery of an area of high pressure that will continue to shift into the western Atlantic through the rest of this afternoon and tonight. On Sunday, a rather strong cold front will begin to approach the region from the northwest and this front will make it into Central Florida later in the afternoon.

As high pressure shifts further into the Atlantic, the rather light and sea breeze driven wind flow this afternoon will gradually become south to southwesterly on Sunday as the front approaches from the north. This will allow for ongoing moisture advection to continue especially across the lower levels of the atmospheric column this afternoon into Sunday. This is shown nicely on 17z ACARS data as well as the latest forecast model soundings. Current PWAT values over the region are near 1.60 inches and these values will continue to slowly increase during during the rest of the afternoon into Sunday. While drier air across the mid to upper levels will act as a capping mechanism, the sea breezes will provide enough lift to support isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon as well as Sunday afternoon. The best chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the rest of the weekend will be across the interior as well as the east coast metro areas with south to southwesterly wind flow developing. Any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable of producing heavy downpours and brief gusty winds.

Very warm temperatures will remain in place across most areas this afternoon as well as Sunday as highs rise into the upper 80s to around 90 across the interior and east coast. These values could approach records this afternoon as well as Sunday afternoon across portions of the east coast metro areas. High temperatures across the Southwest Florida coast will remain in the mid 80s this afternoon and Sunday as onshore wind flow develops.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 317 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Latest ensemble and global solutions show good agreement in bringing a frontal passage across the state starting Monday morning. This will be a dry FROPA, with the main impacts weather-wise being increasing northerly winds and colder air advection.

NBM timing is more consistent with bringing the first colder air intrusion in the Monday late morning-early afternoon time frame, with afternoon highs in the low-mid 70s around the Lake region, and capping around 80 over the southern-most portions of SoFlo.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR expected to prevail throughout the forecast period at all terminals. Light winds will increase out of the SSE after 15-16z and will range between 5 and 10 kts through the afternoon across the east coast terminals. There is a low chance of a quick shower developing in the vicinity of the terminals this afternoon, for which VCSH will suffice attm.

MARINE

Issued at 317 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Southeast winds around 5-10 knots will gradually shift more south-southwesterly through Sunday ahead of an approaching front. Hazardous marine conditions are expected to quickly develop in the wake of the frontal passage starting Monday morning and continuing through the middle of the work week. Most of South Florida's coastal waters will be affected by the stronger winds. High-end Advisory conditions are possible as early as Monday.

BEACHES

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today at all beaches of Palm Beach county.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 87 73 83 48 / 20 10 10 0 West Kendall 88 71 82 47 / 20 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 88 73 82 48 / 20 10 10 0 Homestead 86 72 83 48 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 86 72 81 48 / 20 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 87 73 81 47 / 20 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 90 73 84 48 / 20 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 88 71 81 46 / 20 10 10 0 Boca Raton 88 71 81 46 / 20 10 10 0 Naples 86 70 77 44 / 10 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.