textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 349 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026 - Widespread moderate risk of heat-related illness today and tomorrow. The odds of Major (level 3 of 4) HeatRisk across the east coast metro on Saturday continues to increase.

- Rain chances increase during the second half of the upcoming weekend into early next week. Uncertainty remains high on the timing and coverage of showers and storms.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 349 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Unfortunately, the (lack of) April showers did not bring May flowers. Instead, near-record sweltering heat is upon us and we still remain dry, with much of South Florida still under Extreme Drought (D3) conditions. In fact, elevated fire weather conditions exist across most of the peninsula due to these warm, dry, and breezy conditions. Surface high pressure just off the coast of southwest Florida will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the region for today and tomorrow. The 18z MFL sounding shows a layer of very dry air between 850 and 600 mb, with mid-level subsidence once again looking to keep things mostly sunny through the afternoon. With the subtropical jet strewn across north Florida, westerly flow will also begin to increase aloft. Diurnal mixing may be able to bring down some of this stronger flow to the surface, creating breezier southwesterly winds. Surface pressure gradients will strengthen through tomorrow as a cold front swings south through north Florida and an area of low pressure deepens off the coast of the Carolinas. This will result in stronger southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 kts across the region through most of Saturday. With breezier winds looking to start earlier in the morning, the threat of dense fog is much lower for tonight. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts would also facilitate the threat of rapid fire spread should one occur. However, this warm southerly flow will also introduce a little bit more moisture into the region, keeping conditions above Red Flag criteria. On the other hand, these higher relative humidities will raise heat indices across the region.

Increased southwesterly flow will keep the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the immediate coast, allowing for the east coast metro areas to heat up efficiently throughout the afternoon. Warm air advection and mostly sunny skies will allow for many locations to climb up into the low to mid 90s, near record for early May. High temperatures trended up once again for Saturday afternoon, with KMIA now forecast to tie a record high of 93 F, set back in 1937. According to HREF ensemble probabilities, there is about a 40% to 60% chance for large swaths of the metro area to reach greater than 93 F, which would break several records all along the coast from Miami to Palm Beach. Despite high temp guidance trending higher, maximum heat indices actually dipped slightly lower for Saturday due to dewpoints dropping just a tad. However, heat indices will still be near 100 F for the Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach metros; the highest they've been so far this year. As a result, the NWS HeatRisk tool shows a widespread threat of Moderate risk of heat-related impacts. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk is showing a 75% chance of parts of metro Miami-Dade and Broward reaching a Major (level 3 of 4) risk of heat-related illnesses. This means that anyone that does not take proper cooling and hydration breaks during prolonged outdoor activities will be at risk of heat exhaustion or even heat stroke. Increased hospitalizations due to heat-illness should be anticipated, and health systems or related industries may become stressed.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 218 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

After unseasonable and near record heat possible across portions of South Florida on Saturday, the second half of the weekend is forecast to be more convectively active as the frontal boundary arrives at our doorstep. Zooming back into the forecast via a synoptic lens, the surface low offshore of the Carolina coast will continue to deepen as it accelerates to the northeast into the northern Atlantic in tandem with the axis of the longwave trough sliding eastward across the Great Lakes. This will result in the continued propagation of the frontal boundary southward across the Florida Peninsula Saturday night into Sunday. While deterministic and ensemble models have come into better agreement over the past 24 hours, differences do remain from model suite to model suite even at this hour.

Much of the forecast uncertainty (as discussed in various discussions over the past 48 hours) falls on the exact timing and evolution of the frontal boundary across our region. A quicker and earlier arrival of the frontal boundary into and across the region would limit any destabilization ahead of the boundary which would preclude any threat of more robust storms or threat of heavier rainfall. Conversely, a slower propagation and arrival could provide enough time for destabilization to occur and for more robust convection to fire in the vicinity of the boundary and a higher concern for an localized urban flooding threat. QPF clusters as well as ensemble guidance continue to depict widespread rainfall totals remaining in the 1-2" range, with the highest values forecast over the east coast metro. Some localized totals could be slightly higher where boundary collisions and back-building occurs. The Weather Prediction Center has maintained a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall across the eastern half of the region on Sunday. Deterministic and ensemble models are great for diagnosing the overall synoptic setup but often have spatial and temporal limitations on the metaphysics of convective evolution. Luckily, we are almost at the window of time where our more reliable deterministic (HRRR, RAP, etc) and ensemble (HREF, REFS, etc) mesoscale models can help us better diagnose the setup. The evolution of the front over the next 48 hours will give us better insight into which solution will be more likely to occur. Be sure to stay tuned to the forecast over the next 48 hours as details become more clear.

As the the mid-level trough advects into the western Atlantic during the day on Monday, the frontal boundary will stall just to our south over the Florida Keys and Florida Straits. Rain chances will decrease during this period but remain in the 30-40% range across the region as a temperature gradient is forecast during the afternoon hours (low 80s across the northeastern portion of the region, upper 80s across coastal southwestern Florida). The axis of mid-level troughing will continue into the western Atlantic on Monday night as 500mb flow across the region veers back to a northwesterly component.

A developing mid-level ridge across the Gulf and southern United States will slide eastward into the region during the mid-week period bringing a return to well above average temperatures and low rain chances during the mid-week period. Widespread high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are possible during this period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions at all sites through the period. South to southwesterly winds of 8 to 12 kts over most locations on the east side of the peninsula. A Gulf breeze at KAPF will keep a persistent westerly breeze through the afternoon. Light and variable conditions overnight will allow for some patchy fog to develop along the northern Everglades near Lake Okeechobee and parts of southwest Florida. Southerly winds will pick up area wide tomorrow morning, with gusts around 20 kts likely.

MARINE

Issued at 218 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Light and variable winds across all local waters at daybreak will veer to a southwesterly direction across the Gulf waters and out of a southerly to southeasterly direction across the nearshore Atlantic waters by the early afternoon hours. An afternoon wind surge could once again result in a brief duration of small craft exercise caution conditions (SCEC) across the northern Atlantic waters. Winds will begin to enhance tonight as a frontal boundary moves southward across the northern Gulf, resulting in SCEC conditions once again across the Atlantic waters on Saturday with even some potential of a brief duration of conditions hazardous to small craft across the northern Atlantic zones. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 2 to 4 feet through the first half of the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. The arrival of a frontal boundary in the vicinity of South Florida during the second half of the weekend into next week could result in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the local waters which could bring locally hazardous winds and waves during that time frame. Northeasterly swell behind the frontal boundary early next week could result in higher wave heights across the Gulfstream waters during that time frame.

BEACHES

Issued at 218 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Due to a lingering northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents will persist across the Palm Beaches for the first half of the weekend. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

A nocturnal inversion present across the majority of inland South Florida at daybreak will erode over the remainder of the morning hours as winds gradually enhance out of westerly to southwesterly direction. While wind speeds will remain relatively light, enhanced fire behavior remains possible this afternoon as a combination of dry fuels (Fire Potential Forecast of 4) and relative humidity values (mid 30s to low 40s) near critical thresholds is forecast for inland locations once again. Closer to the coast, onshore winds will moderate the airmass slightly precluding lower relative humidity values. Winds will enhance and become breezy to gusty on Saturday, especially during the afternoon hours which may once again facilitate enhanced fire behavior on Saturday afternoon. With the frontal boundary arriving across the region on Sunday, moisture return and precipitation will act to bring increased moisture back into the region.

CLIMATE

Issued at 218 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Today's Forecasted High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 89 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 88 West Palm Beach(KPBI): 88

Today's 90th Percentile High Temperature Values: (1 in 10 Chance) Miami (KMIA): 92 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 91 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 91

Today's Record Maximum High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 92 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 92 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 93

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 74 93 75 83 / 0 0 30 80 West Kendall 71 94 72 86 / 0 0 30 80 Opa-Locka 74 93 75 84 / 0 0 30 90 Homestead 74 92 74 85 / 0 0 30 80 Fort Lauderdale 74 92 74 81 / 0 0 30 90 N Ft Lauderdale 74 93 74 80 / 0 0 40 90 Pembroke Pines 75 95 76 85 / 0 0 30 90 West Palm Beach 71 94 72 79 / 0 10 50 90 Boca Raton 73 93 74 80 / 0 10 40 90 Naples 72 87 72 82 / 0 0 70 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.