textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

- A shift of surface winds to a northeasterly direction this afternoon will moderate temperatures, increase cloud cover, and bring low end rain chances to the Palm Beaches tonight.

- A prolonged period of dangerous marine and beach conditions may occur across the region beginning on Monday. - While confidence remains low, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances could bring periods of heavy rain to the east coast of South Florida beginning on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

South Florida remains entrenched in a cool and dry post-frontal air mass as we saw low temperatures yesterday morning drop into the low 50s around Lake Okeechobee and over the interior and into the upper 50s/low 60s across our Naples and east coast metros. According to WPC's latest surface analysis, a 1027-1028 mb surface ridge of continental high pressure continues to be centered a little over 1,000 miles to our northwest over the Mid to Upper Mississippi River Valley, which is currently inducing a light northerly wind down the Florida peninsula early this morning. This is typically a setup for us here in South Florida that favors a process called "peninsular drainage flow", where the prevailing wind direction is nearly parallel to our peninsula and ultimately negates any type of warm maritime influence that could otherwise prevent our temperatures from cooling further. Surface obs over Glades County currently show temperature readings in the low 50s with a light and variable wind, which could ultimately set the stage for a few locations to potentially drop into the upper 40s this morning given not only the aforementioned observations, but also the nearest ACARS sounding (KRSW - Fort Myers Southwest Florida Int'l Airport) starting to showing the development of a surface inversion and point-soundings from mesoscale models also suggesting the same. Despite us continuing to have mid to upper-level clouds stream into the region this morning from southwest to northeast as seen on CLD (Cloud-Top Phase) satellite with the lingering presence of a subtropical jet with embedded moisture, it does not appear as if this will have an adverse effect on the low-temperature forecast. We should be waking up at around daybreak to temperatures in the upper 40s west of Lake Okeechobee (maybe even extending slightly southward towards Hendry and northern Collier Counties), in the low to mid 50s across interior and Southwest Florida, and in the upper 50s/low 60s across the east coast metros. Not necessarily falling-iguana criteria, but still relatively chilly for South Florida standards!

Regional ACARS and the 00Z MFL soundings both continue to show a profound dry slot from the surface up through around 550-600 mb or so with higher saturation in the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere due to the aforementioned persisting presence of a moist subtropical jet stream, but forecast soundings show this moist layer gradually eroding away into this afternoon as drier air begins to work its way into South Florida. At the same time, the area of high pressure located over the Mississippi Valley will slowly start to expand eastward towards the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley, allowing our winds here in South Florida to become northeasterly. Limited cloud cover on infrared satellite projections over the Midwest; strong radiational cooling with plenty of cold, Arctic air still in place; and upper-level convergence provided by the downstream flow of the same large upper trough that helped to facilitate the cooldown we are currently experiencing here in South Florida will all allow surface pressures to increase and for the high to strengthen (MSLPs of roughly 1031-1033 mb falling within the 96th and 90-97th percentiles for the date according to REFS and NAEFS ensemble guidance, respectively). At the same time, an extremely elongated piece of vorticity associated with a sharp, negatively-tilted trough stretching across the Northern and Central Rockies will look to splinter in two, with the southernmost fragment of vorticity expected to congeal and subsequently take the form of a shortwave trough over the Southern Plains (and as a result, aid in the development of a surface low just offshore of Galveston Bay in Texas, which is supported by deterministic model guidance).

In response to all this, we will see a fortification in our surface flow beginning tonight with the NBM showing sustained NE winds of 10- 15 kts over the local waters and along the immediate Atlantic/Gulf coasts of South Florida and gusts of 15-20 kts. With our winds veering out the northeast in tandem with peak daytime heating, the warm Gulf Stream waters should act to moderate our temperatures as highs are forecast to generally climb into the mid-upper 70s area- wide to near 80 degrees in some southernmost locations furthest downstream from this flow. Won't be as cool as yesterday, but still pleasantly within just a few degrees of average for this time of year.

With this northeasterly flow starting to advect some more low- level moisture into our region that should stay relatively confined to the first 3,000-6,000 feet of the atmosphere (and with the gradual depletion of the mid to upper-level saturation), we should revert back to seeing more of those shallow-layer, fair-weather cumulus clouds in the sky as they stream in from the Atlantic periodically throughout the day. Most of the period will again feature dry conditions with near-zero PoPs, however, guidance is starting to hint at the possibility of perhaps a few developing showers over our northernmost Atlantic waters by tonight, some of which could graze the coast of Palm Beach County downwind of our prevailing NE flow past sundown. This is coincident with a modest, yet gradual, increase that we will see in our PWATs from 0.7-0.9" this morning and afternoon to 0.9-1.1" by this evening. Albeit with the latter still being below average at around the 30-40th percentile for climatology, it will be just enough to at least start pumping out a few, low-topped marine showers. PoPs of 10-15% have been introduced, particularly along coastal Palm Beach County, tonight into early Monday to address this.

The surface low pressure system that will develop in the northwestern Gulf offshore of Texas tonight (as well as its attendant parent shortwave trough from which it originated) will continue to advance eastward across the northern/central Gulf on Monday with an eventual route towards South Florida. Deterministic model guidance does not show the associated moisture plume with this atmospheric disturbance reaching South Florida until late Monday afternoon or early evening, with forecast soundings still showing plenty of residual dry air in our atmospheric column minus the first kilometer or two due to the lingering onshore flow continuing to advect Atlantic moisture into our region. With it now being the second day that we will at least have some saturation in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will continue to be possible, similar to tonight, for a few showers to make their way onshore primarily into Palm Beach or perhaps even northern Broward along our ongoing NE flow through Monday afternoon. PoPs of 20-40% will be in place across these specified regions, before increasing more notably as we cross over into the long term section of this AFD with the moisture plume from the aforementioned shortwave and surface low arriving in South Florida.

Winds will also start to increase more dramatically on Monday across South Florida as the anomalously strong continental high pressure previously mentioned in this discussion responsible for our veering surface flow shifts eastward once again, now towards the Mid to Upper Ohio River Valley, and continues to strengthen with forecast MSLPs of 1034-1036 mb falling to below the 2nd percentile for November 16th climatology as per ensemble guidance. This, coupled with the eastward advancement of our shortwave + surface low duo threat across the Northern/Central Gulf, will create a locally tight pressure gradient between the two weather features across our region. NBM has our NE surface flow increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts of up to 25 mph. With continued air mass moderation courtesy of our onshore flow, low temperatures on Monday morning across South Florida will not be as chilly as previous instances, dropping into the mid to upper 50s around the Lake, into the low to mid 60s over the interior and across Southwest Florida, and into the upper 60s across the east coast metros. Highs will generally climb into the upper 70s to low 80s area-wide with a few locations in SW Florida closely approaching the mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

OVERVIEW & IMPACTS...

Forecast confidence has continued to increase in a prolonged duration of dangerous marine and beach conditions across South Florida and vicinity waters this week. The latest 00z model suite now depicts a ramp up of gusty surface winds across the region beginning on Monday night with a persistence of these conditions for the remainder of the work week. Before we discuss the "why" and how model guidance members differ on the atmospheric setup, let's cut straight to discussing impacts. Gusty northeasterly surface winds could support the threat of life threatening rip currents and surf at Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach beaches, as well as hazardous marine conditions for small craft across all local waters of South Florida. In addition, forecast model guidance hints at the potential of coastal & frictional convergence along the east coast of South Florida during the middle to late portion of the work week. Forecast model soundings during this time frame show a classic skinny CAPE profile, good low to middle level saturation (>80%), and opposing 1km to 6km wind directions. Given that we remain outside of the reliable convection allowing models (CAMs) forecast window and the evolution of surface features could still vary, the predictability of the likelihood and severity of higher end rainfall maxima's remains low.

While the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)'s latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for the next seven days depicts widespread totals of 1.0 to 1.5 inches along the east coast of South Florida, a reasonable worst case scenario (one that favors a setup of coastal & frictional convergence) could produce several inches of rainfall across isolated locations along the east coast of South Florida. The Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of the east coast of South Florida in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) beginning on Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. This means that there is a 5-14% chance of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point in the highlighted areas. Forecasted rainfall totals may shift in value over the next couple of days which is standard in a complex pattern, so be sure to not anchor to specific range of projected rainfall values. The main takeaway is that aside from marine and beach impacts, there is at least some level of threat of heavy rainfall along the east coast of South Florida during the middle to late portion of this week. Stay tuned to the latest forecast from NWS Miami as the atmospheric setup discussed in detail (further below) becomes more clear.

DETAILED SYNOPSIS...

A robust mid-level shortwave and accompanying sub-tropical jet- streak is forecast to slowly transit across the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula during much of the upcoming work week. Both deterministic (ECMWF and GFS) as well as ensemble (ECENS & GEFS) have trended with a slow progression of this feature across the region, keeping upper level forcing and dynamics directly overhead of the region. The trend of a slower propagation of the short-wave aside, some model members even depict the potential of mid-level vorticity becoming cut-off from the larger long-wave pattern. Why does this matter? A longer duration of favorable dynamics (cold 500mb temperatures, steep low to mid level lapse rates, upper level divergence) aloft of our region could set the stage when combined with sufficient instability and moisture for periods of both diurnal and nocturnal shower and thunderstorm activity along the immediate east coast of South Florida for much of the upcoming work week. During the mid-week period, a strengthening pressure gradient between 1) an expansive ridge of high pressure across much of the eastern United States and 2) a frontal boundary to our south over the southeastern Gulf and Greater Antilles is forecast to result in gusty northeasterly wind flow across all of South Florida. The highest wind speeds are projected over the local waters and along the immediate coastline of southeastern Florida before surface friction acts to reduce wind speeds at the surface further inland. This enhancement of onshore winds coupled with the pooling of low level boundary moisture across South Florida could set the stage for increasing spatial and temporal coverage of showers (and heavy rainfall) along the east coast of South Florida.

The implications of friction will also play a role in any threat of heavy rainfall during this period that will primarily focus across Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach metro areas. As air slows along the coast due to increased friction, ascent is maximized as air parcels converge and are forced to rise. Combining this mesoscale forcing with a potential gradient of instability along the immediate coastline, sufficient boundary layer moisture, and the synoptic kinematics (discussed in the totality of this synopsis) could set the stage for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across our east coast metro locales. With soil moisture values across Palm Beach and Broward counties still in the 70-90th percentile, repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding concerns and a marginal risk of flash flooding across urban areas. Outside of forecast model soundings and QPF cluster analysis, coastal convergence is a mesoscale phenomena that is best modeled within the near-term time horizon of the CAMs. Speaking of QPF clusters, while discrepancies remain between ensemble members, the 90th percentile (reasonable worst case scenario) for all clusters suggests a 1 in 10 potential of several inches of rainfall occurring at isolated locations across the east coast of South Florida Wednesday into Friday.

The placement of the right entrance region of a poleward sub- tropical jet streak over the western Atlantic waters and northwestern/central Bahamas will set the stage for an area of favorable upper level divergence. Model guidance (ECENS & GEFS) has come into better agreement for the gradual development of a surface low along a stationary frontal boundary across the Bahamas during this time frame as low level convergence is maximized. Model solutions now depict a gradual deepening of the surface low pressure system with the low gradually lifting to the northeast beginning on Thursday and continuing into the upcoming weekend. The development of a surface low to our southeast could eventually usher in a reinforcing surge of continental dry air via cyclonic northerly surface flow as it lifts further away from the region late in the work week into the upcoming weekend. The modification of the airmass in place across South Florida is forecast to continue which will result in a continuation of a gradual warming trend across the region with maximum temperatures forecast to reach the low to mid 80s each afternoon through next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

NW winds 5-10 kts becoming NE around 10 kts this afternoon. A few coastal showers possible tonight and overnight, with the highest chances in Palm Beach.

MARINE

Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

A gentle to moderate north-northeasterly wind flow will be in place across the Atlantic and Gulf waters today, increasing to a moderate to fresh flow out of the east-northeast tonight. Moderate to fresh northeasterly flow remains in place across the Gulf waters on Monday, increasing to a fresh to strong breeze across the Atlantic waters. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters today will be between 3-5 feet and 2-3 feet, respectively. Seas increase to 5-8 feet across the Atlantic on Monday and to 2-5 feet across the Gulf, and will continue to increase into the middle of the upcoming work week as northeasterly winds strengthen across the region.

BEACHES

Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

An elevated risk of rip currents will develop along the east coast beaches of South Florida today and could persist into much of the upcoming work week due to a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds. The moderate risk of rip currents at east coast beaches is forecast to become high beginning on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 79 68 81 72 / 10 10 20 40 West Kendall 80 66 81 71 / 10 10 10 30 Opa-Locka 80 66 81 70 / 10 10 20 40 Homestead 80 68 81 71 / 0 10 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 68 79 71 / 10 10 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 79 68 80 71 / 10 10 20 40 Pembroke Pines 81 66 82 69 / 10 10 20 40 West Palm Beach 79 66 79 69 / 10 20 40 50 Boca Raton 78 68 79 70 / 10 10 30 40 Naples 78 62 81 67 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.