textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 206 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers today, with a few embedded storms. No impacts expected. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected today through at least tonight. - Minor coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Atlantic coast today and into this weekend during high tide cycles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The weak frontal boundary will push through the area this morning before settling over the Florida Straits to near Cuba. Drier air will continue to advect into the mid-levels and this will continue as long as flow remains northerly, which will occur at least through Saturday due to South Florida being located on the western side of an amplifying trough and is expected to strengthen further as it progresses northeastwards. This trough is centered off the Mid- Atlantic coast and is largely cut-off, so it will not move anywhere until it either weakens or another disturbance comes and it forces it away. The likely outcome is that another shortwave trough will help to force this deep trough out of the US, but this is not expected to occur until at least Sunday.

As a result, much more meager weather conditions are expected this weekend with the drier air and more stable environment. Some scattered shower activity remains possible and will focus mostly over Southeast Florida each day since this is where the highest moisture content will be, as well as where any convection is steered towards under northerly to north-northwesterly flow. Other than some meager showers and storms, no impacts are expected. High temperatures are expected in the upper 80s today and tomorrow with lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Through Sunday, prevailing flow will be out of the north as a developing nor'easter in the New England region stalls before eventually getting pushes out. This setup will keep drier air in the atmospheric column along with inhibition of deep convection through Sunday. While some positive vorticity impulses will stream across the area and the diurnal sea breezes will still form, these alone may not be enough to overcome the inhibition created by the dry air. Nevertheless, some air parcels will be capable of lifting high enough to produce some isolated to scattered showers and possible a couple embedded storms but they will be of a weaker variety.

By early next week, the system in the northeast US will shift more northwards as a mid-to-upper level shortwave trough pushes across the central US and deepens across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US regions. As this trough swings through the Florida Peninsula, low level flow will shift back to a southerly to southwesterly direction and result in the return of tropical moisture advection. With deeper moisture arriving and this trough providing some upper level forcing for ascent, rain chances will increase back to the 60-80% range by Tuesday and into the middle of next week. Any potential impacts will be assessed later on since this is at the end of the forecast period and uncertainty is high.

High temperatures each day are still expected in the upper 80s to around 90 each day for most areas. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler through Monday night with the front clearing the area, with lows near the lake region in the low to mid 60s and the rest of the region seeing lows in the upper 60s to low 70s through Monday night. By Tuesday night, warmer overnight lows will return.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 206 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

NNE/NNW 9-12 kt winds will persist through Friday. Throughout the afternoon, scattered showers are possible across eastern terminals, particularly for the more coastal terminals, before diminishing into the evening. Overnight into Saturday, winds will weaken for all terminals. At APF, VCSH is introduced at 1Z before clearing out into the early morning where a NNE flow will prevail. For eastern terminals, low confidence on storm/shower development has resulted in a tentative VCSH introduction for early Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Hazardous conditions are expected today and into this weekend, primarily across the Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue as a frontal boundary starts to clear the area, and northerly/northeasterly swell will also increase throughout the day today. Winds are expected to reach around 20 kts today and tonight, which will be combined with seas of 7-10 feet in the Atlantic. With these conditions, Small Craft Advisories are in effect through at least early Saturday morning.

BEACHES

Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A high risk for rip currents is in effect for all Atlantic coast beaches as an increasing northerly/northeasterly swell and brisk northerly winds occur today. In addition, a High Surf Advisory is in effect for the Palm Beaches big breaking waves of up to 7-9 feet.

Furthermore, a King Tide Cycle is expected this weekend that will be enhanced by a full moon cycle. Given the recent observations and trends, we could see minor flooding as early as today, so a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for today's high tide cycles and this is likely to continue into this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 73 87 71 86 / 10 30 10 20 West Kendall 72 87 70 86 / 10 30 10 20 Opa-Locka 73 87 71 87 / 10 30 10 10 Homestead 72 87 71 87 / 10 40 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 72 86 71 86 / 10 30 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 73 86 71 86 / 10 30 10 10 Pembroke Pines 72 86 70 86 / 10 30 10 10 West Palm Beach 72 86 70 86 / 20 30 0 10 Boca Raton 72 85 70 85 / 10 30 10 10 Naples 69 86 68 86 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.