textproduct: Miami - South Florida

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Scattered showers and storms will develop across the interior and east coast metro areas this afternoon. Some of these storms could become strong across the Lake Okeechobee region containing gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. - A strong cold front will push through the region late Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Friday morning.

- Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will push into the region for the upcoming weekend along with breezy conditions as high pressure builds in from the north.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 201 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

A rather fast moving mid level shortwave will push along the Northern Gulf Coast today before pushing across Northern Florida and out into the western Atlantic tonight. At the surface, high pressure will push further to the east in the western Atlantic as a developing area of low pressure moves across the Midwest today and tonight. This area of low pressure will then rapidly push across the Mid-Atlantic states as Thursday progresses before pushing offshore into the western Atlantic.

As the aforementioned mid level shortwave pushes across the Gulf coast and towards Northern Florida, it will cause the mid level wind flow to veer and become southwesterly today. This should help to bring in some deeper layer moisture over the region as the mid level drier air that has been in place over the past several days begins to erode. At the same time, mid level heights will lower throughout the day and 500mb temperatures will become colder. These 500mb temperatures will generally range from -8C across the southern portion of the peninsula to -10C across the Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon causing lapse rates to steepen as the day progresses. With the surface high shifting further into the Atlantic the background surface wind flow will remain light, however it will become more south southwesterly as the day progresses. As the sea breezes develop, there will be enough moisture in place to support scattered shower and thunderstorm development as the sea breeze boundaries push inland and interact with each other. While the sea breezes will remain the main lifting mechanism for convective development this afternoon, the colder air aloft provided by the shortwave passing off to the north will aid in the potential for an isolated strong thunderstorm or two this afternoon. The best chances for stronger thunderstorms will be located across the Lake Okeechobee region as well as Palm Beach County where the colder air aloft and higher instability will be located. The stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and even some small hail. High temperatures today will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas, however, upper 80s will be possible along and south of Alligator Alley.

Moving into Thursday, mid level troughing will deepen and amplify over the Eastern Seaboard. At the same time, the surface cold front associated with the intensifying area of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states will gradually push across the Southeast and down towards the Northern Gulf Coast and Northern Florida. Out ahead of this frontal boundary, guidance is hinting at a prefrontal surface trough setting up and passing through South Florida as Thursday progresses. This will help to create a wind shift as winds become more west southwesterly across the region during this time frame. This prefrontal trough will also help to spark off some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as it passes through. Since the best dynamics and instability will still be located well off to the northeast of the region, stronger thunderstorm development will be very limited as the prefrontal trough pushes through and most of the activity will be in the form of lower topped showers. High temperatures on Thursday will generally range from around 80 across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s across most other areas.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 201 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

The actual cold front will approach South Florida on Thursday night before pushing through the region on Friday morning. Chances for showers out ahead of the actual front will be on the lower end as the prefrontal trough would have helped to reduce some of the available moisture over the region. Once the front passes through, strong high pressure will begin to build into the area from the northwest. As the pressure gradient tightens, winds will increase out of the northwest allowing for strong cold air advection to take place beginning on Friday afternoon and lasting into the first part of the weekend. This strong cold air advection will allow for the coolest airmass of the fall season so far to move into South Florida during this time frame. Low temperatures on Friday night into Saturday morning have the potential to drop into the lower 50s across the Lake Okeechobee region and into the interior portions of Southwest Florida. Most other areas will see low temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s, while lower 60s will remain possible along the immediate east coast. High temperatures on Saturday will only rise into the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region and they will rise into the lower 70s across most other areas. Low temperatures will continue to remain cool on Saturday night into Sunday morning, however, they may be very slightly warmer as compared to the previous night due to winds beginning to veer and become north northeasterly.

As high pressure continues to shift eastward dry conditions will remain in place for Sunday, however, with winds continuing to veer and become more northeasterly temperatures will moderate as the day progresses. High temperatures on Sunday will generally range from mid 70s west of Lake Okeechobee to the upper 70s to around 80 across the rest of the region.

During the early portion of next week, the latest global and ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential for another mid level shortwave to dive down from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and along the Northern Gulf Coast heading into Monday and Tuesday. This mid level shortwave could cause cyclogenesis to take place at the surface along the Northwestern Gulf coast early Monday before moving eastward across the Gulf and towards the Florida Peninsula through the early portion of next week. Uncertainty in this part of the forecast remains on the higher end as this is towards the end of the forecast period and the latest guidance suite still remains in disagreement in regards to the intensity and timing of the surface low development along with its eventual movement across the Gulf. However, with a gradual increase in moisture anticipated out ahead of this system, chances for showers for thunderstorms could increase across South Florida during the early week period. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

SE winds around 10 kts across the east coast metro with a westerly Gulf breeze this afternoon at APF. Scattered SHRA/TS expected primarily across the east coast metro this afternoon and evening, which may result in brief flight restrictions and lower CIGS/VIS. Winds become light again overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 201 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

A gentle to moderate south southwesterly wind flow will develop across most of the local waters today. The exception to this will be over southern portions of the Atlantic waters, where winds may remain southeasterly. Scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly over the Atlantic waters and Lake Okeechobee this afternoon. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through Thursday. A strong cold front will approach the local waters on Thursday before moving across the region on Friday morning. Winds and seas may increase behind the front across all local waters on Friday afternoon into the upcoming weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 201 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Miami 72 84 71 79 / 20 30 10 10 West Kendall 72 84 71 80 / 10 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 72 84 70 79 / 20 30 10 10 Homestead 72 85 71 81 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 71 82 69 77 / 30 30 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 71 82 69 77 / 30 40 10 0 Pembroke Pines 70 84 69 80 / 30 30 10 10 West Palm Beach 69 81 68 77 / 40 40 10 0 Boca Raton 70 81 69 77 / 30 40 10 0 Naples 72 81 71 78 / 30 60 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.