textproduct: Memphis

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Warm and windy conditions will persist tonight and Monday ahead of a cold front. A slow-moving cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the Mid-South Tuesday and Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue through late week as the front remains over the region.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

It's a warm and windy day across the Mid-South. We have seen several wind gusts over 35 mph as a 40 knot 925mb jet remains overhead. Temperatures are in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees across the entire area. The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals a large swath of showers moving south to north across portions of eastern Arkansas. Hi-res models failed to capture this activity this far east, but trends suggest that it will taper off by this evening as upper level heights build back in. Thereafter, mainly dry and windy conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.

The large trough, currently over the Intermountain West, will deepen over the next 24 hours and a strong low level jet will move overhead. 925mb winds will strengthen to 50 knots over the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow. This will result in moderately windy conditions across at least the western half of the forecast area. The strongest winds appear to be over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, but could expand east of the Mississippi River. Current NBM guidance is underperforming wrt to winds, so opted to go with NBM 90 and a higher gust multiplication factor. Sustained winds of 20 mph will be prevalent across the majority of the area with 25 mph or greater mainly over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. A wind advisory is in effect from 9AM to 7PM tomorrow for the aforementioned area.

A cold front will move into the region late Monday night and slowly traverse the area through Wednesday. The highest rainfall totals will occur mainly on Tuesday with 1 to 1.5 inches possible. The front is expected to stall across the region through late week, as the main trough dampens and lifts northeast of the region. Deep southwesterly flow will setup across the region on Thursday in response to another deepening trough over the Four Corners Region. The stalled front will back north of the region on Thursday. Chances for near-record high temperatures will occur on both Thursday and Friday.

Newly introduced Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, that is currently in the western Caribbean Sea, will move northeast through the Gulf of Mexico over the next week or so. This system's track will need to be closely monitored, as it has the potential to interact with a mid-latitude cyclone in the Lower Mississippi Valley next weekend. Both Ensemble and Deterministic guidance suggest that tropical moisture will interact with a frontal boundary over the Mid-South next weekend. Significant rainfall could occur over portions of the Mid-South as PWATs climb above 2 inches. Stay tuned.

AC3

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Raw HRRR and GFS/LAMP guidance suggest current trend of limited gusts will persist through about 03Z. LLWS remains marginal across the Midsouth overnight, peaking at 09Z with about 20 degrees of veering through lowest 2kft. Isolated -SHRA will primarily affect JBR, but should present relatively limited impact.

Primary aviation weather impact for Monday will remain gusty southerly surface winds, peaking 15Z-18Z with the deepening low level mixed layer.

PWB

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CST Monday for ARZ009-018-026- 028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CST Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.


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